The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 24, 2016

2016 Southeastern Conference Football Preview

Our final conference preview has become an annual conclusion to this 10-day preseason opening to the PiRate Ratings’ football coverage. In every instance since moving from radio to print, the Southeastern Conference has been our preseason number one league, and in most years, the top-rated team has been the overall number one team in the nation. This year, our PiRate Ratings show the top two teams in the league to be number one and number two nationally to begin the season, and the third best team is number four nationally.

In recent seasons, the West Division has been several points better than the East Division. While overall, the West is still better than the East, the difference is not as obvious as in past seasons. In fact, the number one team to begin the 2016 season is the Tennessee Volunteers from the East Division. Coach Butch Jones has been quietly building the Big Orange back to a point where they were in the late 1990’s, the late 1960’s, and during the reign of the great General Robert Neyland.

In 2015, Tennessee lost four times in games they could have won with a little better offensive line and a little more depth in the defense. The Vols have that this year. The team that won its last six games by an average of 22+ points per game is about a touchdown better this season. A four-game stretch between September 24 and October 15 will determine if this team can run the table and play for the SEC Championship. The Vols begin this tricky trek by hosting Florida, a team that Tennessee finds a way to lose to every year. Then, back to back road trips to Georgia and Texas A&M should be the two easier games of the four. FInally, the annual rivalry game against Alabama comes at home this year, and Tennessee would be a 3-6 point favorite if that game were to be played this weekend. After a week off, the road to the finish presents no major impediments with five games that could be won by an average in excess of 30 points per game.

Tennessee has powerful talent in every unit. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs will be one of the top 10 players at his position in the next NFL Draft. Dobbs completed 60% of his passes with a 15/5 TD-Interception ratio, but he averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt. That number needs to go north of 7.0 this year. Dobbs will have some famiiar receviers returning this year, led by the Josh’s (Malone and Smith), who teamed for 13.2 yards per reception on 54 catches last year. There is depth behind this duo, plus the Vols have talent at tight end in Ethan Wolf.

The running game will be solid with the return of Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara. Hurd gained close to 1,300 yards and Kamara added almost 700 last year, and if the two stay healthy, Tennessee could top 225 yards rushing and passing this year.

Making the offense more efficient this year is a no-name blocking corps. There is experience and depth here, but it is the one potential fly in the offense’s ointment.

The Orange have star talent in the defensive trenches, at linebacker, and in the secondary. Up front, end Derek Barnett was one of five SEC defenders to record double-digit sacks last year. He will team with Corey Vereen on the other side of the line, and the two should team for at least 15 sacks and another 15 hurries.

Jaleen Reeves-Maybin led UT with 105 tackles last year, including six sacks and 14 total tackles for loss. The weakside linebacker will team with Darrin Kirkland to form a dynamic duo in the second line of defense.

The secondary is deep and talented, with four returnees from last year that teamed to 34 defended passes. Opponents barely completed 50% of their passes last year, on par with Alabama’s defense.

When Tennessee was a dynasty in the 1930’s through the 1950’s special teams were very special indeed. General Neyland’s teams were noted for blocking punts, punting the ball a long distance with excellent coverage, and a high kick and punt return average. The Vols may have the number one special teams unit in the land this year with a top-rated punter, kicker, kick returner, and punt returner.

The race for second place in the East should come from the other two annually successful teams in the division. Georgia returns a lot of talent, especially on the attack side, but they begin anew with Coach Kirby Smart. Smart has never been a head coach, but former Alabama assistant coaches have a rather good history of success. The Bulldogs have some issues, namely a quarterback issue where a true freshman, an inexperienced junior, and a senior, who has started at two Power 5 schools are competing for the starting job. Top high school recruit Jacob Eason may be a major star in a couple years, but he may not be the best fit to lead this team as a true freshman. Junior Brice Ramsey has a rocket thruster on his throwing arm, and he can throw the ball down the field quickly, but not always where it should go. Senior Greyson Lambert is more of a game manager with experience, and he is likely to get the nod to start the first game.

The Bulldogs have two running backs capable of topping 1,000 yards rushing when healthy, but the problem has been that neither has been healthy. Nick Chubb may be ready to start the season, but he might not be 100%, while Sony Michele may not be ready. Coach Smart is preparing for the opener as if neither will be able to play, and that makes Georgia 7-10 points weaker than if the two stars were totally healthy.

Smart is a defensive genius, and he will mold the Bulldogs into a strong and cohesive unit this year. However, they may not gel until the second half of the schedule, and with North Carolina, Ole Miss, and Tennessee coming in the first half, UGa may be out of the race early.

Florida won the East Division in Coach Jim McElwain’s first season. McElwain, the former offensive coordinator at Alabama and head coach at Colorado State, has less experience returning to Gainesville this year than his friend and former co-worker has in Athens, but the Gators have a year of experience in his system, which equalizes the two rivals. The winner of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is likely to decide second place with a better than small chance of besting Tennessee for the top spot. The Gators will go as far as new quarterback Luke Del Rio (Jack’s son). The Gators should have a decent passing game with three capable receivers, led by Antonio Calloway, who averaged nearly 20 yards per pass reception last year.

The Gators may be a little weaker in the defensive line this year, but the back seven is strong. How well they can stop the stronger running games will determine if they can contend for the division crown.

After the top three, the other four are fairly evenly matched, and they could finish in any combination. Of the four teams, Vanderbilt has the highest initial PiRate Rating, but the Commodores have an unfavorable schedule this year with road games against Kentucky and Missouri probably leading to losses, and leaving the Commodores with just one winnable SEC game. Third year coach Derek Mason should field another competent defense, but once again a weak offense will prevent the Commodores from winning consistently.

Missouri has had so many issues on and off the field in the last 16 months, and now the Tigers start over with a new coach in Barry Odom. Odom is a defensive wizard, having improved defenses at every stop, and he has brought in former Oklahoma quarterback Josh Heupel to run the offense. Because the Tigers’ roster has changed a lot since the end of Spring Practice, it is hard to get a real gauge on their true identity this year. What figured to be one of the strongest defensive lines in the league took a major blow when two expected starters were dismissed. The offensive line took a hit with the unexpected loss of their only experienced lineman, but then Missouri picked up a “free agent” from Memphis in Michael Stannard, who should start immediately at guard.

Kentucky begins the season with the sixth best rating in the East, but the Wildcats have the best chance of the four second division teams of breaking through with a bowl eligible season for fourth year head man Mark Stoops. If they cannot get to six wins, there may not be a year five for Stoops. The concern is finding a capable passer to throw to a stable full of quality receivers so that defenses will play running back Boom Williams more honestly. Drew Barker has to prove he can be an SEC quarterback, as the Wildcats have not had consistency here since Andre Woodson played a decade ago. Kentucky will have to outscore opponents to win, because their defense is somewhat suspect to start the season.

South Carolina begins the year as the obvious choice for number seven in the division and number 14 overall. The Gamecocks went 3-9 last year with just one conference win, and they face a bigger rebuild than any team in the league. First year head coach Will Muschamp did not fare well in his final two years at Florida, going 7-12 in his last 19 games after beginning his career 22-9. The Gamecock offense could struggle to score 20 points per game and gain 350 yards, and their defense might regress from last year’s 28 points and 430 yards allowed. If USC drops the opener at Vanderbilt, they may struggle to win a conference game. There are some gimme non-conference games on the schedule, which should allow Carolina to win three times without a conference opponent going down.

Now to the West. Usually, this is the spot where we tell you how easy the path will be for Alabama to win the division, the league, and the national title. This year, we thought we would offer you something different, as we have another team to place that burden upon. It surprised us too when we placed all our data into our algorithmic equations, and the computer spit out somebody other than the Crimson Tide as the top team in the division. That honor goes to LSU this year.

The Tigers could have begun this season with a new coach, as Les Miles was on a very warm seat last December. The Tigers’ big guys decided to stick with him for another season, as they knew the Bayou Bengals had a stockpile of quality talent returning. When you have Leonard Fournette at running back, the tendency is to hand him the ball 35 times a game and take your chances, and then when you throw the ball, look for Fournette in the flats or short zones. This gave the Tigers 23 touchdowns last year, but somebody else must help take off some of this load. It’s one thing to have a back carry the ball 300 times in the Pac-12, but against the brutal defenses in the SEC week after week, that method doesn’t do so well.

That’s where having two highly skilled wide receivers come in, and Miles must remember that Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural are eligible to receive passes. This tandem averaged more than 17 yards per catch last year, but they need to see more passes thrown their way, as they combined for just 71 receptions.

Therein, lies the rub. Somebody has to throw the ball relatively close to these guys’ hands, and in recent years, finding a quarterback to do just that has been somewhat difficult. Junior Brandon Harris has the potential to be that guy. Harris played injured in the second half of 2015, and his production fell off the table. He is healthy once again, and his passes look sharp so far in August. Backing him up will be former Purdue starter Danny Etling, who could challenge for playing time if Harris takes a step back.

Defensively, LSU could look more like their great 2011 team. The Tigers are loaded in the line, at linebacker, and in the secondary. New Defensive Coordinator Dave Aranda made Wisconsin the best defensive team in the Big Ten, and he has more than enough players with J.J. Watt’s collegiate talent level to guide the Purple and Gold to the top of the stop charts in the top league in the land. Up front, Gavin Godchaux forces more than one offensive lineman to keep him from penetrating into the backfield, and this frees up the linebackers. End Lewis Neal is a multi-tool defender, able to put QBs on the turf and able to cover the short passing zones. He is a potential All-American this year.

Aranda’s starting Wisconsin linebackers recorded 229 tackles last year, and he didn’t have a player the equal of Kendell Beckwith or Arden Key. Look for these two stars to record crazy defensive numbers this year, and Key might become one of the best blitzing ‘backers in the nation.

We’ve saved the best for last. There is not another secondary outside of the NFL that can match the quartet in Baton Rouge. It begins with Jamal Adams, who led the Tigers with four interceptions last year from his safety spot. Cornerbacks Kevin Tolliver and Tre’Davious White cover receivers like gloves. Free safety Rickey Jefferson covers a lot of real estate between the sidelines, and this group should give the Tigers the extra impetus to get over the hump this year and edge out the big crimson-colored rival.

Don’t count Alabama out, just because they lost enough talent to start an expansion franchise in the NFL. The Tide does not rebuild; they reload, and Coach Nick Saban has enough talent to win the national title again if the younger players play mistake-free.

Alabama still plays somewhat old fashioned, blood and guts football, so the running game is very important to the overall offense. Without Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry and top backup Kenyan Drake, there is no way this year’s team can come close to matching last year’s production, even with a strong offensive line opening holes. Those 50-yard touchdown bursts last year will become 7-12 yard excellent gains this year, and that will keep the offense from matching the 35 points per game of last year.

Add to the minor troubles the fact that a new quarterback must replace the highly underrated Jake Coker, who completed 67% of his passes last year and averaged almost eight yards per attempt. Cooper Bateman started just one game last year, and it was the only one ‘Bama lost. He may not be the eventual starter, as true freshman Jalen Hurts has impressed offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin enough to be considered a co-number one at this point in the preseason.

It is imperative that a QB emerges that can throw the ball, because the Tide has the best wide receiver group in the league, and they are going to need to throw the ball more this year in order to open up holes for the running game. Calvin Ridley, ArDarius Stewart, and Robert Foster should all play for pay one day, and they make the receiving corps one of the best in the nation. What may keep them from teaming for 200 receptions is lackluster quarterback play.

One need never worry much about the Alabama defense. It has been a long time since the Crimson Tide surrendered 20 points per game or 350 yards per game. As long as they don’t have to face DeShaun Watson, look for the Tide to give up about 15-17 points and 275-300 yards per game even with four of the top five tacklers missing from last year.

One of those returnees led the TIde with a dozen QB sacks last year, and end Jonathan Allen could be a first team All-American this year. Middle linebacker Reuben Foster returns after making eight stops behind the line of scrimmage and breaking up nine passes a year ago. On the back line, it starts with All-American Eddie Jackson at the strong safety position. Jackson tied for the league lead with six interceptions last year.

Alabama’s schedule presents the young Tide player with a challenge that will be a little too much to completely conquer. A neutral game with USC to start the season could give the Tide some confidence, as we believe they can win this one. However, road games against Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU will not be easy, and we feel like this team may split these four games. Still, 10-2 isn’t that bad when you consider that most other schools replacing this much talent would be lucky to win three or four games.

After the top two, there really isn’t a lot of distance between the numbers three through seven teams in the West Division. The parity is incredible, and all five of these teams should end up with six to eight wins each. We feel at this point that no team will exceed 4-4 in conference play, and maybe four of the five will come in at exactly 4-4.

The initial PiRate Ratings shocked us by placing LSU so high, but they shocked us even more when the computer spit out Mississippi State as the third highest preseason rating. Personally, all of us here figured the Bulldogs would be picked last in the division, which is what the media gurus said when they voted at SEC Media Days. We cannot obviously tell you why the algorithm gave the Maroon Bullies the nod as the third best East Division team to start 2016, because Coach Dan Mullen has to replace his star quarterback, top two receivers, three excpetional offensive linemen, and six quality defensive starters. Mullen is possibly one of the two or three most underrated coaches in college football, and when faced with a similar rebuilding project three years ago, the Bulldogs managed to win seven games. Their schedule takes Mississippi State to LSU, Kentucky, Alabama, and Ole Miss, four games they could easily lose. Even if they win one of those four, there is no guarantee they will hold serve at home against Auburn, Texas A&M, and Arkansas, so the Bulldogs are just one of a quartet we believe will split their conference games.

We believed that Ole Miss would be the clear choice for third best in the league, but the computer says they are fourth best this year. As long as quarterback Chad Kelly stays healthy and doesn’t try to force the ball in tiny spaces, the Rebels’ offense should do just fine, even without an SEC-caliber running back or a highly-rated offensive line. When Kelly gets the time to throw, he will have some good receivers getting open. Quincy Adeboyejo and Damore’ea Stringfellow will see their numbers inflate by at least 50%, as the Rebels try to replace All-American Laquon Treadwell’s 82 receptions and 1,153 yards. The Rebels averaged 41 points per game last year, but that number will drop by as many as 7-10 points in 2016.

The Ole Miss defense has a lot of holes to fill, but Coach Hugh Freeze has recruited well, and the Rebels have some talented, albeit inexperienced players to fill these gaps. End Marquis Haynes might be the top defensive player in a lower-rated conference, but in the SEC, he’s just above average. Haynes registered 10 sacks and 16.5 total tackles for loss last year, while adding eight QB hurries. Fadol Brown gives Ole Miss a fine bookend to compliment Haynes. The other defensive star is cornerback Kendarius Webster, but the Rebels lost a lot of talent from the secondary. It adds up to another 4-4 team from the West.

Auburn Coach Gus Malzahn began his tenure on the plains with a 12-win season and came within a whisker of winning the national championship. Since then, his Tiger teams have endured through 8-5 and 7-6 seasons, and if the fortunes don’t begin to turn this year, Malzahn could be interviewing for a new situation. The prospects for this year’s team being much improved are slim, because like all five of the little brothers in the West Division, Auburn has too many holes to plug, and at best the Plainsmen will only top last year’s seven-win record by a game. Whether 8-5 is good enough to keep Malzahn’s job is a question to be answered in the early Winter. As of this writing on August 23, Malzahn has yet to decide on a starting quarterback from among three, and the eventual starter will need a lot of first team reps to be ready for the opening game against Clemson. Add the issue of having to replace the running back that was expected to start with three inexperienced and pedestrian candidates, plus the loss of the top two receivers, and Auburn could struggle to score enough points against the teams that score in rapid succession.

Arkansas should have an improved defense in year four of the Bret Bielema era in Fayetteville. However, the offense lost its quarterback, star running back, and one of its two star receivers. Bielema usually produces an incredible offensive line, so we feel like the Razorbacks have the best potential of the bottom five of pulling some surprises and sneaking into the three-hole. However, if the new quarterback cannot get the job done, the Razorbacks also have the most risk of falling into the pit in this division.

Texas A&M has been through some tough times in the last several months. Not one, but the top two quarterbacks left College Station after the final regular season game last year. Two assistants were suspended without pay for making sexually explicit comments to a group of women fans.

Then, the top-rated quarterback in the high school ranks, Tate Martell, who outdueled UCLA QB Josh Rosen two years ago when their high school teams met, decommitted from Aggieland to sign with Ohio State. This led receiver’s coach Aaron Moorhead to issue an ill-advised Tweet, which then forced Head Coach Kevin Sumlin to discipline yet another assistant.

All this dissension cannot be good for Sumlin, who begins the season on a hot seat, and if the Aggies lose the opener at home to UCLA, it could snowball into something much worse. Games at Auburn, against Arkansas in Jerryworld, at home with Tennessee, at Alabama, at Mississippi State, and at home with LSU would then put the Aggies in jeopardy of getting to six wins should the Bruins come to Kyle Field and get the “W” on September 3.

Here is how the SEC Media picked the order of finish at Media Days in Birmingham last month.

SEC East Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Tennessee 225 2,167 29
2 Florida 57 1,891 5
3 Georgia 45 1,860 7
4 Kentucky 0 933 0
5 Vanderbilt 2 810 1
6 Missouri 0 807 0
7 South Carolina 2 800 1
         
SEC West Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Alabama 246 2,220 223
2 LSU 76 1,984 59
3 Ole Miss 5 1,479 4
4 Texas A&M 3 1,130 1
5 Arkansas 1 1,047 1
6 Auburn 0 890 0
7 Mississippi St. 0 518 0

 

Here are our initial PiRate Ratings for the top league.

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 127.7 121.8 128.4 126.0
Florida 113.5 116.8 111.1 113.8
Georgia 112.5 114.0 112.1 112.9
Vanderbilt 106.9 100.7 105.1 104.3
Missouri 103.0 101.8 102.5 102.5
Kentucky 100.4 102.3 99.2 100.6
South Carolina 99.0 99.3 98.1 98.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
LSU 127.6 121.1 126.8 125.2
Alabama 126.5 119.0 125.0 123.5
Mississippi St. 120.1 115.9 119.7 118.6
Auburn 114.5 113.8 113.9 114.1
Arkansas 116.4 110.3 114.2 113.7
Texas A&M 112.1 111.4 112.0 111.8
Ole Miss 113.6 107.4 112.1 111.0
         
SEC Averages 113.9 111.1 112.9 112.6

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point. Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.
Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then. So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

Southeastern Conference Projected Standings
East Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Tennessee 8-0 13-0 * Playoffs–Peach
Georgia 5-3 8-4 Citrus
Florida 5-3 8-4 Outback
Kentucky 2-6 5-7  
Missouri 2-6 5-7  
Vanderbilt 1-7 4-8  
South Carolina 1-7 4-8  
       
West Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
LSU 8-0 12-1 NY6–Sugar
Alabama 6-2 10-2 NY6–Rose
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 Texas
Ole Miss 4-4 7-5 Liberty
Auburn 4-4 7-5 Music City
Arkansas 4-4 7-5 Taxslayer
Texas A&M 2-6 6-6 Belk

 
This wraps up the conference previews. Coming later today, we will be posting the updated PiRate Ratings and debut the Retrodictive PiRate Rankings, which is sort of comical, since no games have been played. Our first Retro Rankings of the season are actually predictive in nature, because we simply update last year’s final Retro Rankings in a similar manner to how we update our Predictive Ratings. Nevertheless, the Rankings will make their 2016 debut in this post.

Also, by this evening in the Eastern Time Zone, our webpage will be updated with the latest ratings and rankings as well. You can find this at piratings.webs.com. It is a no-frills just the stats ma’am site with stats and no commentary.

Our regular college schedule once the season begins in earnest is to have the updated ratings posted by Monday afternoon and the predicted spreads of the next week’s games online by Tuesday evening.

For those of you interested in our NFL data, we will have our NFL ratings and predicted spreads for the following week by Wednesday evening.

And, for those of you that promise, and we mean PROMISE, not to use our data to bet and lose your house, car, and family at the betting windows in Vegas, we will issue our JUST FOR FUN money line parlays this year. In theory only, if you actually did use just our parlay predictions last year, you might have come out ahead with a 40% return on investment, but this was most likely an anamoly. If we can convine you any more to this fact, we would not bet one dollar on these fun only parlay predictions. It’s simply all about the math for us analytics nerds. After all, we are a team of professional baseball scouts and sports metric analysts that just happened to play one or more of the big three sports. Our parlay predictions are more like how many play fantasy football just for fun not expecting to win anything.

Did you see the part above about NOT using our free predictions to lose your hard-earned, or even easy-earned money?

November 1, 2015

College Football Preview: November 3-7, 2015

The 5-Star College Football Week of the Season
This is the biggest week of the college football season so far. Many questions will be answered by this time next Sunday. The second issuing of the NCAA Playoff Committee will be much different than the first one that comes out Tuesday, as many of the contending teams face off against other contending teams this week. Additionally, there are key games that will weed out conference championship pretenders from the contenders. And, in multiple cases, there will be games where the winners take a giant step toward bowl eligibity, while the losers drop out of the picture.

This is the great Bonanza for you the fan this week.

Tuesday
Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo is still in the race for a New Year’s Six Bowl bid. The Rockets hold wins over Arkansas and Iowa State, and they would need for Memphis and Houston to lose before they would have a shot, but it is still possible. Northern Illinois is still in the MAC West Division race.

Wednesday
Ohio at Bowling Green: The MAC East Division title goes to Bowling Green if the Falcons win this game. If Ohio upsets BGU, the Falcons still have a one-game lead.

Thursday
Arkansas St. at Appalachian St.: The winner will hold first place to themselves in the Sun Belt Conference. Both teams are going bowling this year, and if Appy St. wins out to finish 11-1, that could set up an incredible GoDaddy.com bowl between two 11-win teams.

Saturday
Duke at North Carolina: A week after getting “hosed” by the referees, Duke must now win at its arch-rival to stay in the ACC Coastal Division race. A Tar Heel win basically puts North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game.

Florida St. at Clemson: Another impressive CU win could vault the Tigers into the upper two spots in the Playoff bracket with no remaining teams to play as strong as FSU or Notre Dame, who Clemson would have already beaten. If Florida St. can win at Clemson and then at Florida, and if they could then win the ACC Championship Game, the Seminoles would have a chance at the #4 seed.

Arkansas at Ole Miss: This could be a trap game for the Rebels. With a game coming up against LSU, Ole Miss can ill-afford to lose to Arkansas and fall below the Alabama-LSU winner. If Ole Miss can win, the Rebels stay in control in the SEC West Race.

Iowa at Indiana: The Hawkeyes can only make the Playoffs if they win out and then beat either Ohio St. or Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship Game. Indiana was once 4-0, but they have dropped four straight games. The Hoosiers must come up with two wins in their last four games, and besides this game, they face Michigan and Maryland and Purdue on the road. Kevin Wilson’s job could be on the line.

TCU at Oklahoma St.: The winner should move into the top 4 in the following week’s poll, and Oklahoma State has come out of nowhere to be in this position. The Cowboys host the three other contenders in the league, and at this point, we have to consider them the co-favorite to win the Big 12. The other co-favorite is the team they play Saturday. We believe the winner of this game will emerge as the league champion, but if the league champion loses a game, the destination will most likely be New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl and not the Playoffs.

Cincinnati at Houston: The Cougars can smell that New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid. They have the most advantageous schedule of any of the contending teams for the one guaranteed Group of 5 teams. Cincinnati is out of the NY6 picture, but the Bearcats have an offense capable of matching UH point for point.

Utah St. at New Mexico: Bob Davie has the Lobos close to getting back to a bowl. New Mexico is 4-4 and needs two upsets in their final four games from a group that also includes Boise St., Colorado St., and Air Force. If the Lobos can get an upset in this game, we believe they will get one more. As for Utah St., the Mountain West Mountain Division flag is in their grasp with a previous win over Boise St., but the Aggies must still play at Air Force and cannot afford to slip up here.

Navy at Memphis: Memphis must keep pace with Houston and Toledo in the Group of 5 race. A win here would be considered a quality win, especially if the Tigers can win as convincingly as Notre Dame’s win over the Midshipmen. Navy is basically locked into a Military Bowl bid at this point, but if they beat Memphis and win out, while Houston and Toledo both lose a game ,the Middies could find themselves in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl.

LSU at Alabama: This is the top game of the week. How many times in recent history has this game had national championship repercussions? Can Leonard Fournette keep LSU’s offense moving against a Crimson Tide defense that will force the Tigers to throw the ball or face eight men up front? What about Alabama’s offense? It has been Jekyll and Hyde this year when the Tide has the ball. LSU’s run defense might be up to the task to slow the ‘Bama running game. It should be close and lower than average scoring.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 128.9 126.7 128.5 128.0
2 Ohio St. 129.0 123.6 129.8 127.5
3 Baylor 128.3 124.8 128.8 127.3
4 TCU 129.5 121.0 130.1 126.9
5 Oklahoma 126.4 122.9 126.6 125.3
6 LSU 124.3 121.5 124.7 123.5
7 Clemson 122.6 123.8 123.3 123.2
8 Stanford 122.5 120.7 122.2 121.8
9 Notre Dame 122.8 119.7 122.8 121.8
10 USC 122.7 119.1 123.1 121.6
11 Florida 121.5 118.3 121.9 120.6
12 Ole Miss 122.7 117.7 120.8 120.4
13 Tennessee 121.4 117.3 121.4 120.0
14 Utah 121.7 116.2 120.9 119.6
15 North Carolina 117.8 118.1 117.7 117.9
16 UCLA 120.3 114.3 118.5 117.7
17 Michigan 118.5 115.4 118.1 117.3
18 Texas A&M 117.8 114.5 116.0 116.1
19 Arkansas 118.0 112.5 117.0 115.8
20 Michigan St. 116.6 113.4 116.3 115.4
21 Mississippi St. 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
22 Oklahoma St. 115.2 112.8 115.6 114.5
23 California 116.2 110.9 115.6 114.2
24 Florida St. 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
25 Georgia 116.9 109.8 115.5 114.1
26 Arizona St. 116.0 110.8 115.0 113.9
27 Oregon 116.0 109.3 115.3 113.5
28 Houston 110.2 117.0 112.9 113.4
29 Wisconsin 113.2 113.5 112.7 113.1
30 Auburn 113.8 111.2 112.8 112.6
31 Iowa 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
32 Georgia Tech 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
33 Boise St. 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
34 West Virginia 113.2 107.5 112.4 111.0
35 Memphis 110.3 111.2 111.1 110.9
36 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
37 North Carolina St. 109.8 111.2 108.6 109.9
38 Temple 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
39 Washington 110.3 107.7 110.9 109.6
40 Bowling Green 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
41 Duke 108.4 108.8 108.9 108.7
42 Missouri 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
43 Louisville 106.9 109.3 106.2 107.5
44 Pittsburgh 106.9 107.6 107.5 107.3
45 BYU 107.1 106.3 108.0 107.1
46 Western Kentucky 106.4 106.5 107.7 106.9
47 Penn St. 106.7 107.0 106.7 106.8
48 Nebraska 107.8 106.0 106.6 106.8
49 San Diego St. 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
50 Cincinnati 105.0 106.1 106.3 105.8
51 Toledo 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
52 South Carolina 107.2 103.7 105.5 105.5
53 Miami 104.1 104.7 105.1 104.6
54 Arizona 106.6 100.9 105.4 104.3
55 Washington St. 105.3 101.4 105.1 103.9
56 Minnesota 104.7 103.0 104.0 103.9
57 Northwestern 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
58 Texas Tech 106.8 98.3 106.2 103.8
59 Colorado 105.9 100.7 104.3 103.6
60 Texas 104.7 101.4 104.5 103.5
61 Louisiana Tech 102.8 102.2 103.6 102.9
62 Navy 100.3 103.8 100.9 101.7
63 Kansas St. 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
64 Illinois 102.6 100.7 101.4 101.6
65 Kentucky 103.3 99.4 101.8 101.5
66 Virginia 101.7 99.7 101.3 100.9
67 Appalachian St. 99.1 102.3 101.3 100.9
68 Utah St. 100.3 100.8 100.8 100.6
69 Boston College 99.8 103.0 98.4 100.4
70 Western Michigan 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.1
71 Iowa St. 99.9 96.4 100.1 98.8
72 Purdue 99.2 98.5 98.0 98.6
73 Vanderbilt 99.9 95.9 99.7 98.5
74 Air Force 96.8 100.8 96.3 98.0
75 Georgia Southern 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
76 Northern Illinois 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
77 Wake Forest 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
78 Indiana 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
79 Marshall 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
80 East Carolina 93.4 96.9 94.2 94.8
81 South Florida 92.5 98.4 93.3 94.7
82 Syracuse 93.9 96.6 93.3 94.6
83 Maryland 94.5 92.9 94.0 93.8
84 Rutgers 95.1 92.1 93.6 93.6
85 Central Michigan 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
86 Southern Mississippi 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
87 Middle Tennessee 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
88 San Jose St. 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
89 Tulsa 90.1 94.4 91.1 91.9
90 Colorado St. 92.2 90.8 91.0 91.3
91 Florida International 90.1 92.7 90.7 91.2
92 Oregon St. 92.6 89.3 90.8 90.9
93 Connecticut 88.6 93.4 89.5 90.5
94 Nevada 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
95 Arkansas St. 89.1 89.9 89.9 89.6
96 Ohio 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
97 New Mexico 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
98 Tulane 85.4 87.7 84.9 86.0
99 Buffalo 83.2 89.5 85.1 85.9
100 Massachusetts 84.6 87.2 85.4 85.7
101 Akron 83.0 88.9 84.4 85.4
102 UL-Lafayette 83.6 86.7 84.1 84.8
103 SMU 83.6 87.5 83.2 84.8
104 Rice 83.3 86.6 83.5 84.5
105 Hawaii 83.4 85.6 83.1 84.0
106 Ball St. 82.7 85.1 83.6 83.8
107 UNLV 82.6 84.6 83.2 83.5
108 Florida Atlantic 81.8 84.9 82.3 83.0
109 Troy 80.7 82.1 82.2 81.7
110 Texas St. 80.4 83.8 79.9 81.4
111 Fresno St. 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
112 Army 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
113 Wyoming 80.6 82.8 79.8 81.1
114 UT-San Antonio 79.8 82.3 80.6 80.9
115 Kent St. 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
116 Central Florida 79.2 82.2 79.5 80.3
117 UTEP 76.6 79.1 76.2 77.3
118 South Alabama 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
119 Georgia St. 76.9 76.7 77.4 77.0
120 Old Dominion 75.3 79.7 74.3 76.4
121 UL-Monroe 76.7 75.6 76.7 76.3
122 Idaho 73.1 78.5 74.4 75.3
123 North Texas 73.2 78.0 73.6 74.9
124 Miami (O) 73.1 77.6 73.5 74.7
125 Eastern Michigan 72.2 78.8 71.7 74.2
126 Kansas 76.6 70.2 74.5 73.8
127 New Mexico St. 68.8 70.3 69.0 69.4
128 Charlotte 68.1 70.1 67.7 68.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Clemson
5 LSU
6 Baylor
7 Oklahoma
8 Michigan St.
9 Notre Dame
10 Utah
11 Iowa
12 Florida
13 Stanford
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Michigan
16 Memphis
17 Ole Miss
18 USC
19 Houston
20 Florida St.
21 North Carolina
22 Mississippi St.
23 Toledo
24 Wisconsin
25 Texas A&M
26 UCLA
27 Navy
28 Temple
29 BYU
30 Tennessee
31 Northwestern
32 Penn St.
33 California
34 Boise St.
35 Appalachian St.
36 Bowling Green
37 Duke
38 Pittsburgh
39 Oregon
40 Washington
41 Western Kentucky
42 Arkansas
43 Miami (Fla)
44 Georgia
45 Cincinnati
46 Texas Tech
47 Washington St.
48 Louisville
49 Utah St.
50 North Carolina St.
51 Georgia Southern
52 Auburn
53 West Virginia
54 Marshall
55 Louisiana Tech
56 Virginia Tech
57 Arizona St.
58 San Diego St.
59 Western Michigan
60 Central Michigan
61 Kansas St.
62 Air Force
63 Georgia Tech
64 Minnesota
65 Illinois
66 Iowa St.
67 Indiana
68 Northern Illinois
69 Virginia
70 Missouri
71 Texas
72 South Carolina
73 Arizona
74 Kentucky
75 Arkansas St.
76 Southern Miss.
77 Tulsa
78 Connecticut
79 South Florida
80 East Carolina
81 Nebraska
82 Colorado
83 Boston College
84 Syracuse
85 Ohio
86 Purdue
87 Vanderbilt
88 Maryland
89 Rutgers
90 Buffalo
91 MTSU
92 Wake Forest
93 Louisiana-Lafayette
94 Colorado St.
95 San Jose St.
96 Kent St.
97 Rice
98 Akron
99 Nevada
100 South Alabama
101 Oregon St.
102 Troy
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Ball St.
105 UNLV
106 New Mexico
107 Tulane
108 SMU
109 Army
110 Old Dominion
111 Texas St.
112 Fresno St.
113 Massachusetts
114 Idaho
115 Florida Atlantic
116 Georgia St.
117 Hawaii
118 Kansas
119 Louisiana-Monroe
120 Wyoming
121 UTSA
122 UTEP
123 Miami (O)
124 Eastern Michigan
125 North Texas
126 Central Florida
127 Charlotte
128 New Mexico St.

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 4-0 7-1 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
Cincinnati 2-2 5-3 105.0 106.1 106.3 105.8
East Carolina 2-3 4-5 93.4 96.9 94.2 94.8
South Florida 2-2 4-4 92.5 98.4 93.3 94.7
Connecticut 2-3 4-5 88.6 93.4 89.5 90.5
Central Florida 0-5 0-9 79.2 82.2 79.5 80.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 4-0 8-0 110.2 117.0 112.9 113.4
Memphis 4-0 8-0 110.3 111.2 111.1 110.9
Navy 4-0 6-1 100.3 103.8 100.9 101.7
Tulsa 1-3 4-4 90.1 94.4 91.1 91.9
Tulane 1-4 2-6 85.4 87.7 84.9 86.0
SMU 0-4 1-7 83.6 87.5 83.2 84.8
             
AAC Averages     95.6 99.1 96.4 97.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 5-0 8-0 122.6 123.8 123.3 123.2
Florida St. 5-1 7-1 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
North Carolina St. 1-3 5-3 109.8 111.2 108.6 109.9
Louisville 3-2 4-4 106.9 109.3 106.2 107.5
Boston College 0-6 3-6 99.8 103.0 98.4 100.4
Wake Forest 1-5 3-6 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
Syracuse 1-3 3-5 93.9 96.6 93.3 94.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 4-0 7-1 117.8 118.1 117.7 117.9
Georgia Tech 1-5 3-6 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
Virginia Tech 2-3 4-5 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
Duke 3-1 6-2 108.4 108.8 108.9 108.7
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-2 106.9 107.6 107.5 107.3
Miami 2-2 5-3 104.1 104.7 105.1 104.6
Virginia 2-2 3-5 101.7 99.7 101.3 100.9
             
ACC Averages     107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 4-0 7-0 128.3 124.8 128.8 127.3
TCU 5-0 8-0 129.5 121.0 130.1 126.9
Oklahoma 4-1 7-1 126.4 122.9 126.6 125.3
Oklahoma St. 5-0 8-0 115.2 112.8 115.6 114.5
West Virginia 0-4 3-4 113.2 107.5 112.4 111.0
Texas Tech 2-4 5-4 106.8 98.3 106.2 103.8
Texas 2-3 3-5 104.7 101.4 104.5 103.5
Kansas St. 0-4 3-4 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
Iowa St. 2-3 3-5 99.9 96.4 100.1 98.8
Kansas 0-5 0-8 76.6 70.2 74.5 73.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 8-0 129.0 123.6 129.8 127.5
Michigan 3-1 6-2 118.5 115.4 118.1 117.3
Michigan St. 4-0 8-0 116.6 113.4 116.3 115.4
Penn St. 4-1 7-2 106.7 107.0 106.7 106.8
Indiana 0-4 4-4 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
Maryland 0-4 2-6 94.5 92.9 94.0 93.8
Rutgers 1-4 3-5 95.1 92.1 93.6 93.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-1 7-2 113.2 113.5 112.7 113.1
Iowa 4-0 8-0 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
Nebraska 1-4 3-6 107.8 106.0 106.6 106.8
Minnesota 1-3 4-4 104.7 103.0 104.0 103.9
Northwestern 2-2 6-2 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
Illinois 1-3 4-4 102.6 100.7 101.4 101.6
Purdue 1-3 2-6 99.2 98.5 98.0 98.6
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 5-0 7-2 106.4 106.5 107.7 106.9
Marshall 5-0 8-1 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
Middle Tennessee 2-2 3-5 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
Florida International 2-3 4-5 90.1 92.7 90.7 91.2
Florida Atlantic 2-3 2-6 81.8 84.9 82.3 83.0
Old Dominion 1-3 3-5 75.3 79.7 74.3 76.4
Charlotte 0-5 2-6 68.1 70.1 67.7 68.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 4-1 6-3 102.8 102.2 103.6 102.9
Southern Mississippi 4-1 6-3 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
Rice 2-2 4-4 83.3 86.6 83.5 84.5
UT-San Antonio 1-3 1-7 79.8 82.3 80.6 80.9
UTEP 1-3 3-5 76.6 79.1 76.2 77.3
North Texas 1-4 1-7 73.2 78.0 73.6 74.9
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.0 86.2 86.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   7-1 122.8 119.7 122.8 121.8
BYU   6-2 107.1 106.3 108.0 107.1
Army   2-6 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
             
Independents Averages     102.5 104.2 103.3 103.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 4-0 6-2 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
Ohio 2-2 5-3 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
Buffalo 2-2 4-4 83.2 89.5 85.1 85.9
Massachusetts 0-4 1-7 84.6 87.2 85.4 85.7
Akron 1-3 3-5 83.0 88.9 84.4 85.4
Kent St. 2-2 3-5 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
Miami (O) 0-5 1-8 73.1 77.6 73.5 74.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-0 7-0 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
Western Michigan 4-0 5-3 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.1
Northern Illinois 3-1 5-3 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
Central Michigan 4-1 5-4 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
Ball St. 2-3 3-6 82.7 85.1 83.6 83.8
Eastern Michigan 0-5 1-8 72.2 78.8 71.7 74.2
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-1 7-2 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
Utah St. 4-1 5-3 100.3 100.8 100.8 100.6
Air Force 4-1 5-3 96.8 100.8 96.3 98.0
Colorado St. 1-3 3-5 92.2 90.8 91.0 91.3
New Mexico 2-2 4-4 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
Wyoming 1-4 1-8 80.6 82.8 79.8 81.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-0 6-3 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
San Jose St. 3-2 4-4 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
Nevada 2-2 4-4 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
Hawaii 0-5 2-7 83.4 85.6 83.1 84.0
UNLV 1-3 2-6 82.6 84.6 83.2 83.5
Fresno St. 1-4 2-6 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 6-0 7-1 122.5 120.7 122.2 121.8
California 2-3 5-3 116.2 110.9 115.6 114.2
Oregon 3-2 5-3 116.0 109.3 115.3 113.5
Washington 2-3 4-4 110.3 107.7 110.9 109.6
Washington St. 3-2 5-3 105.3 101.4 105.1 103.9
Oregon St. 0-5 2-6 92.6 89.3 90.8 90.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 3-2 5-3 122.7 119.1 123.1 121.6
Utah 4-1 7-1 121.7 116.2 120.9 119.6
UCLA 3-2 6-2 120.3 114.3 118.5 117.7
Arizona St. 2-3 4-4 116.0 110.8 115.0 113.9
Arizona 2-4 5-4 106.6 100.9 105.4 104.3
Colorado 1-4 4-5 105.9 100.7 104.3 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 5-1 7-1 121.5 118.3 121.9 120.6
Tennessee 2-3 4-4 121.4 117.3 121.4 120.0
Georgia 3-3 5-3 116.9 109.8 115.5 114.1
Missouri 1-4 4-4 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
South Carolina 1-5 3-5 107.2 103.7 105.5 105.5
Kentucky 2-4 4-4 103.3 99.4 101.8 101.5
Vanderbilt 1-3 3-5 99.9 95.9 99.7 98.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.9 126.7 128.5 128.0
LSU 4-0 7-0 124.3 121.5 124.7 123.5
Ole Miss 4-1 7-2 122.7 117.7 120.8 120.4
Texas A&M 3-2 6-2 117.8 114.5 116.0 116.1
Arkansas 2-2 4-4 118.0 112.5 117.0 115.8
Mississippi St. 2-2 6-2 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
Auburn 1-4 4-4 113.8 111.2 112.8 112.6
             
SEC Averages     115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 4-0 7-1 99.1 102.3 101.3 100.9
Georgia Southern 4-1 6-2 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-3 89.1 89.9 89.9 89.6
UL-Lafayette 2-1 3-4 83.6 86.7 84.1 84.8
Troy 1-3 2-6 80.7 82.1 82.2 81.7
Texas St. 1-2 2-5 80.4 83.8 79.9 81.4
South Alabama 1-2 3-4 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
Georgia St. 1-2 2-5 76.9 76.7 77.4 77.0
UL-Monroe 0-4 1-7 76.7 75.6 76.7 76.3
Idaho 2-3 3-5 73.1 78.5 74.4 75.3
New Mexico St. 1-3 1-7 68.8 70.3 69.0 69.4
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
4 ACC 107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 102.5 104.2 103.3 103.4
7 AAC 95.6 99.1 96.4 97.0
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
9 MAC 87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.0 88.0 86.2 86.8
11 SBC 81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 LSU
3 Clemson
4 Baylor

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Memphis      
2 Houston      
3 Toleo      
4 Temple      
5 Navy  

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team  
10 Iowa St.  
9 Purdue  
8 Vanderbilt  
7 Wake Forest  
6 Indiana  
5 Syracuse  
4 Maryland  
3 Rutgers  
2 Oregon St.  
1 Kansas  

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.6
2 Dartmouth 92.8
3 Harvard 92.4
4 Chattanooga 91.3
5 Illinois St. 91.1
6 North Dakota St. 91.0
7 McNeese St. 90.7
8 Dayton 90.6
9 Richmond 90.3
10 Charleston Southern 89.4

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 3        
Toledo Northern Illinois 12.3 9.4 10.1
         
Wednesday, November 4        
Bowling Green Ohio 21.2 21.7 22.4
         
Thursday, November 5        
Kent St. Buffalo -1.2 -5.0 -2.6
Western Michigan Ball St. 19.8 18.1 20.0
Appalachian St. Arkansas St. 13.0 15.4 14.4
Kansas St. Baylor -20.0 -26.6 -21.5
Missouri Mississippi St. -3.8 -4.1 -5.2
Fresno St. Nevada -5.1 -5.1 -6.5
         
Friday, November 6        
SMU Temple -22.2 -20.4 -23.3
UTEP Rice -4.2 -5.0 -4.8
San Jose St. BYU -12.8 -9.1 -13.8
         
Saturday, November 7        
Massachusetts Akron 4.1 0.8 3.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 27.6 24.6 28.4
Tulsa Central Florida 13.9 15.2 14.6
Northwestern Penn St. 0.2 0.0 -0.2
Purdue Illinois -0.4 0.8 -0.4
Florida Int’l. Charlotte 25.0 25.6 26.0
West Virginia Texas Tech 9.4 12.2 9.2
North Carolina Duke 10.9 10.8 10.3
Florida Vanderbilt 24.6 25.4 25.2
Georgia Kentucky 16.6 13.4 16.7
Pittsburgh Notre Dame -12.9 -9.1 -12.3
Louisville Syracuse 16.0 15.7 15.9
Boston College North Carolina St. -7.0 -5.2 -7.2
Colorado Stanford -13.6 -17.0 -14.9
Georgia St. Louisiana-Lafayette -4.2 -7.5 -4.2
Miami (O) Eastern Michigan 3.4 1.3 4.3
South Alabama Idaho 5.1 5.7 4.7
Wyoming Colorado St. -9.6 -6.0 -9.2
Miami (Fla) Virginia 4.9 7.5 6.3
Clemson Florida St. 11.5 12.0 12.9
Ole Miss Arkansas 7.7 8.2 6.8
Air Force Army 22.1 17.1 20.2
Washington St. Arizona St. -7.7 -6.4 -6.9
Indiana Iowa -11.5 -13.7 -12.8
Maryland Wisconsin -15.7 -17.6 -15.7
Michigan Rutgers 26.4 26.3 27.5
Oklahoma St. TCU -11.3 -5.2 -11.5
Louisiana Tech North Texas 32.6 27.2 33.0
Middle Tennessee Marshall 0.7 -1.6 -0.1
Houston Cincinnati 8.2 13.9 9.6
Troy Louisiana-Monroe 6.5 9.0 8.0
New Mexico Utah St. -9.1 -8.8 -10.9
Texas St. New Mexico St. 13.6 15.5 12.9
Tulane Connecticut -2.0 -2.7 -1.6
Tennessee South Carolina 17.2 16.6 18.9
Oregon St. UCLA -24.7 -22.0 -24.7
UNLV Hawaii 3.2 3.0 4.1
Memphis Navy 13.0 10.4 13.2
UTSA Old Dominion 7.0 5.1 8.8
Oklahoma Iowa St. 29.5 29.5 29.5
Nebraska Michigan St. -5.8 -4.4 -6.7
Washington Utah -8.4 -5.5 -7.0
Texas A&M Auburn 7.0 6.3 6.2
East Carolina South Florida 3.9 1.5 3.9
Alabama LSU 7.6 8.2 6.8
Texas Kansas 31.1 34.2 33.0
Ohio St. Minnesota 27.3 23.6 28.8
Oregon California 2.8 1.4 2.7
USC Arizona 19.1 21.2 20.7

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA Colorado St. vs. Old Dominion
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Washington St. vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Western Michigan vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Temple vs. Bowling Green
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. Washington *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Toledo vs. Appalachian St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina vs. Oregon
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Texas St. * vs. Rice
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers ^
Independence SEC ACC Akron * vs. Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Miami (Fla) * vs. California
Military ACC AAC North Carolina St. vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville vs. Buffalo *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Central Michigan * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC East Carolina vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC Florida St. vs. Georgia
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Kentucky
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. LSU
Cotton Playoff Playoff Ohio St. vs. Alabama
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Oklahoma St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. UCLA
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Utah vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke vs. Texas A&M
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor vs. USC
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Ohio St. vs. Clemson
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Rutgers qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams

October 12, 2015

College Football Preview: October 13-17, 2015

Tube Madness
This is the week to burn your TV tubes out with constant football viewing (plus watching some baseball playoff games). There are games on four different days this week, as the Tuesday night Sun Belt package begins tomorrow.

Let’s take a look at the four excellent days and why you will want to watch a plethora of games this week.

Tuesday
There is just one game this night, but it is meaningful. Two Sun Belt Conference contenders, Arkansas State and South Alabama, face off in Mobile, where the winner will be 2-0 in league play and in good shape to go on to claim one of the league’s four bowl bids. You have two excellent coaches in Joey Jones at USA and Blake Anderson at ASU, both of whom could be on multiple short lists in December.

Thursday
Auburn at Kentucky: This game is a bowl elimination game plain and simple. We cannot see a way either team can make it to six wins if they do not win this game. If Kentucky can move to 3-1/5-1 with an impressive win, then the Wildcats could see a way to get to nine wins if things go their way. At 9-3, the Big Blue could move into contention for a Belk, Taxslayer, Liberty, or Music City Bowl berth rather than look square in the face at a Birmingham or Independence Bowl berth. For Auburn, there is no margin of error. The Tigers figure to be considerable underdogs in games against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Georgia, and with two losses, AU must win the other three games just to go 6-6.
UCLA at Stanford: This could be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game, although Utah, Arizona St., Cal, and the two Washington schools all believe they still have a good shot. The Bruins have not fared well against the Cardinal power teams in recent years. Stanford has won the last seven games between these two teams, including back-to-back wins to close the regular season and in the conference title game in 2012. Last year at the Rose Bowl, SU held then 9th-ranked UCLA to 282 total yards and 10 points while topping 200 yards on the ground and through the air. The loss knocked the Bruins out of the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Friday
Cincinnati at BYU: Both teams are going to go bowling, and this game will not affect conference standings, but it should be an exciting game, if for no other reason than to see which quarterbacks play for the two teams. For BYU, it could be freshman Beau Hoge, son of ESPN analyst Merril Hoge. Hoge comes from a Kentucky suburb of Cincinnati. For the Bearcats, Gunner Kiel may be recovered enough from a neck injury suffered against Memphis two weeks ago to see action, but his backup freshman Hayden Moore looked like Greg Cook from the 1960’s in Kiel’s stead.

Boise St. at Utah St.: This is probably the de facto division championship game in the Mountain West Conference’s Mountain Division. The Broncos have dominated this series winning the last 12 times against USU.

Houston at Tulane: The Cougars should win this game with relative ease, but this gives UH a chance to display their skills to a national audience. The only Group of 5 team ahead of the Cougars in the standings is Boise St., who will be playing on Friday night as well. Cougar coach Tom Herman is just in his first year, but we are hearing chirps that he could be at the top of the wish list at multiple Power 6 Conference schools where there will be openings aplenty in 2016.

Saturday
There are about 25 excellent matchups on Saturday, but we have isolated a baker’s dozen that really intrigue us.

Ole Miss at Memphis: This backyard brawl has been hard-fought even in years where one or both teams were mediocre or worse. Now that both teams are quite good, we expect this game to be high-scoring and close. If Memphis wants to jump to the head of the Group of 5 leaders for the New Year’s 6 at-large bowl bid, they are close to being in a must-win situation here. Ole Miss still holds out slim hopes of making the College Football Playoffs this year, but the Rebels must win out.

Louisville at Florida St.: A few weeks ago, this game did not look all that appetizing, but the Cardinals catch the Seminoles at the perfect time. UL enjoyed a bye week, while FSU had to play a tough game against rival Miami. Look for this game to be surprisingly close.

West Virginia at Baylor: Our PiRate Ratings elevated Baylor to the top of the charts this week, and the Bears look to be stronger this year than last. Last year, WVU upset BU in Morgantown, knocking the Bears out of a certain playoff spot in the process. With BU averaging 64 points per game, and the Mountaineers giving up 38.5 in their two Big 12 games, this could be a week where WVU scores 30 points and still loses by more than four touchdowns. Baylor currently averages better than 350 yards on the ground and through the air. No team has ever approached offensive numbers like this. They are in number two nationally in rushing and number eight nationally in passing, and their 725 total yards a game is almost 100 yards better than the number two total offense team. That’s just crazy!

Iowa at Northwestern: Northwestern got their hats handed to them in A2 on Saturday. If Iowa wants any respect, the Hawkeyes must win in Evanston this Saturday. If NU recovers and knocks off the undefeated Hawkeyes, they immediately return to the top of the Big Ten West standings.

Alabama at Texas A&M: Alabama looked vulnerable Saturday night against Arkansas. The Crimson Tide must bring the same performance against the Aggies this week that they brought to Athens, GA, two weeks ago. A&M had a bye week, and defensive coordinator John Chavis has had decent success stopping good Alabama offenses. With an extra week to prepare, the Aggies could be poised to stop this mediocre Tide attack. Last year in Tuscaloosa, the Tide humiliated the Aggies 59-0 just after looking terrible against Arkansas the week before. Is lightning prepared to strike in the same place twice? We don’t think so. We believe this will be a top heavyweight fight with a relatively low score in the neighborhood of 21-20. It’s can’t miss football watching. If Texas A&M can pull out this game, they really only have two more difficult games in their way of the SEC Championship Game.

Syracuse at Virginia: Why did we pick this game, since on the surface, it looks like one to toss out? There’s one simple reason. Last week, the Arizona Bowl finally became official for this season, meaning 41 bowls will require 80 bowl eligible teams, since two teams will play two postseason games. As of today, we believe that the 80th bowl eligible team will come from a group of multiple contenders from the Atlantic Coast Conference. Boston College, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St., Syracuse, and Wake Forest could all finish at 5-7. We don’t see Virginia in that mix, and we feel almost certain that head coach Mike London is making his swan song this season in Charlottesville. However, UVA has just enough talent to knock off the Orangemen at Scott Stadium this week, making it almost a certainty that Syracuse will not make it to 6-6.

Oklahoma at Kansas St.: The Sooners laid another egg last week against Texas in the Red River Rivalry game. Under Bob Stoops in recent years, they have come up with stinkers like this one, but they always followed it up with wins. Oklahoma has not dropped back-to-back regular season games since Stoops’ first season in Norman (1999 to Notre Dame and Texas), but it could happen again this week. Kansas State took TCU to the final minutes of the game Saturday night, and the Wildcats last lost home games in consecutive weeks 10 seasons ago.

Michigan St. at Michigan: There’s no getting around it: this is the real game of the week. It will be a brutal, hard-fought game, and it wouldn’t surprise us if 60 minutes are not enough to decide the outcome. Michigan is doing wonders on the defensive side, producing results that have not been duplicated on the field in over 20 years. Their three consecutive shutouts were last performed by Kansas State in 1995, but those three blankings came against Akron, Northern Illinois, and Missouri who combined to go 8-25 that season. The Wolverines have shut out two ranked teams in this streak, and that hasn’t happened in 67 years! Oh, that team that last did it in 1948 was Michigan, when they bested Oregon, Northwestern, and Purdue in successive weeks. Northwestern and Purdue were ranked at the time.

Michigan State is getting no love, even though the Spartans are 6-0. Their wins have not been impressive, and they could have lost three of those six games. Still, this is a backyard brawl, and the two teams have not both been ranked this high before facing off since 1999, when then 11th-ranked State knocked off #3 Michigan 34-31 in East Lansing. This game is in the Big House.

Florida at LSU: Normally, this game would be the top contest of the week. You have two undefeated SEC teams both ranked in the top 10. However, CBS didn’t even choose this game as their nationally televised game, forcing it to be the 7:00 PM EDT ESPN game. The winner will almost assuredly move into the top 5 on Sunday morning, while the loser still keeps playoff hopes alive. Florida might have smooth sailing all the way to a regular season finale against Florida State, if they can pull off the mild upset.

Last week, LSU showed the makings of a decent passing game, when South Carolina tried their darndest to force the Tigers to throw the ball. Brandon Harris completed 18 of 28 passes for 228 yards and a couple of touchdowns. If he can put up numbers in this range the rest of the year, with Leonard Fournette continuing to flash Heisman Trophy numbers, LSU can finish 11-1 or even 12-0 in the regular season.

USC at Notre Dame: Our thoughts go to USC Coach Steve Sarkisian, who has been placed on leave so he can receive help for his alcohol-related health issues. We doubt he will ever coach another game for the Trojans. For the second time in three years, USC finishes the season with an interim head coach in Clay Helton. Helton was the second of two interim coaches for USC in 2013, and he led the Trojans to a 45-20 Las Vegas Bowl win over Fresno State in his only other game as a head coach. Oddly, because of the timing, this will be the fourth different head coach in four years for USC in their game against the Irish.

Notre Dame is still a work in progress on both sides of the ball this year, but the Irish keep fighting for four quarters. The coaches don’t know exactly what to expect against USC, as the Trojans could have a large bag of tricks on hand for this game. They have nothing to lose now, and with games against Utah, Cal, and Arizona to follow, their season is in dire emergency of going south to the bad side of .500 in what could become a seven-game losing streak.

Penn St. at Ohio St.: Neither team is living up to expectations, which is really comical, since the Buckeyes remain number one in the nation, and the Nittany Lions are 5-1 with a loss to Temple that does not look so bad now. Penn State was the last Big Ten team to beat Ohio State in Columbus, coming in 2011 when interim OSU coach Luke Fickell squared off against interim PSU coach Tom Bradley.

If the Buckeyes come out a little flat like they did in three of their previous four games, this game could become quite interesting. The Buckeyes have yet to face a star quarterback this year, and Lion Christian Hackenberg is starting to come around with a 141.7 QB Rating in his last three games, including a 6/0 TD/Int ratio.

Arizona St. at Utah: It would not shock us at all, if this game determines the Pac-12 South representative in the conference title game. The Utes are coming off an emotional key nationally-televised win over California, and a win this week would leave the Utes in clear control of the division race, especially if UCLA loses to Stanford.

Utah back Devontae Booker does not get the publicity of an Ezekiel Elliott or Leonard Fournette, but the senior combines both power and speed, and he has a better pair of hands than either of his two more famous counterparts. Booker leads the Utes in both rushing and passing, and against Oregon, the southpaw went wide left on a sweep and pulled up to complete a 25-yard touchdown pass to Britain Covey.

Arizona State could be without its top offensive weapon in running back Demario Richard. Richard is questionable for this game, and former starting back D. J. Foster may have to move back from his wide receiver spot for this game. Foster led the Sun Devils with more than 1,000 rushing yards last year, but he is ASU’s leading receiver as a wideout this year.

San Diego St. at San Jose St.: This is an interesting Mountain West thriller, where the winner of this game has a heavy chance of taking the MWC West Division title. These two teams have a long history of facing off on the gridiron with San Jose State holding a slim 19-17-2 margin over the Aztecs. Aztec coach Rocky Long and Spartan coach Ron Carragher were both on the UCLA football staff in the 1990’s. Both have incredibly talented assistants for a non Power-6 school.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Utah
5 Oklahoma
6 Texas A&M
7 Baylor
8 Clemson
9 LSU
10 Northwestern
11 Florida
12 Florida St.
13 Stanford
14 Michigan
15 USC
16 Michigan St.
17 Notre Dame
18 Ole Miss
19 Georgia
20 Oklahoma St.
21 Iowa
22 UCLA
23 California
24 West Virginia
25 Houston
26 Boise St.
27 Toledo
28 Temple
29 Memphis
30 BYU
31 Navy
32 Pittsburgh
33 North Carolina
34 Duke
35 Kansas St.
36 Western Kentucky
37 Mississippi St.
38 Kentucky
39 Missouri
40 North Carolina St.
41 Texas Tech
42 Wisconsin
43 Arizona St.
44 Oregon
45 Illinois
46 Indiana
47 Arkansas
48 Louisville
49 Miami (Fl.)
50 Penn St.
51 Washington
52 Tennessee
53 Syracuse
54 Ohio
55 Cincinnati
56 East Carolina
57 Boston College
58 Minnesota
59 Georgia Southern
60 Marshall
61 Auburn
62 Arizona
63 Air Force
64 Louisiana Tech
65 Georgia Tech
66 Nebraska
67 Bowling Green
68 Appalachian St.
69 Tulsa
70 South Carolina
71 Virginia Tech
72 Utah St.
73 Iowa St.
74 Oregon St.
75 Colorado
76 Vanderbilt
77 Central Michigan
78 Wake Forest
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas
81 Northern Illinois
82 Washington St.
83 Virginia
84 Southern Miss.
85 Arkansas St.
86 Ball St.
87 Akron
88 Connecticut
89 Western Michigan
90 Maryland
91 San Jose St.
92 South Alabama
93 Rutgers
94 Colorado St.
95 San Diego St.
96 Massachusetts
97 Buffalo
98 Purdue
99 UNLV
100 New Mexico
101 Rice
102 South Florida
103 Nevada
104 Kent St.
105 Florida Int’l
106 UL-Monroe
107 Hawaii
108 Tulane
109 Army
110 UL-Lafayette
111 Troy
112 UT-San Antonio
113 Texas St.
114 SMU
115 Old Dominion
116 Fresno St.
117 Eastern Michigan
118 Florida Atlantic
119 Central Florida
120 Idaho
121 Miami (O)
122 UTEP
123 Kansas
124 Charlotte
125 Georgia St.
126 North Texas
127 New Mexico St.
128 Wyoming

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Baylor 129.8 126.6 130.8 129.1
2 Alabama 127.6 125.3 127.0 126.6
3 TCU 128.4 119.1 129.1 125.5
4 Ohio St. 126.4 119.1 126.9 124.1
5 Utah 125.2 119.3 124.4 123.0
6 Ole Miss 124.5 118.1 122.4 121.7
7 LSU 122.7 119.4 122.6 121.6
8 Notre Dame 122.5 119.2 122.5 121.4
9 Stanford 121.7 120.5 121.7 121.3
10 Texas A&M 121.4 119.2 120.5 120.4
11 USC 120.7 117.2 120.7 119.5
12 Michigan 120.2 117.4 120.7 119.4
13 UCLA 121.8 115.3 119.6 118.9
14 Oklahoma 119.5 116.5 119.5 118.5
15 Georgia 120.8 113.4 119.8 118.0
16 Clemson 117.6 118.4 117.9 118.0
17 Florida 118.8 115.8 119.0 117.9
18 Tennessee 119.2 114.5 118.7 117.5
19 Boise St. 117.8 113.4 117.8 116.3
20 North Carolina 116.2 116.1 116.0 116.1
21 California 117.5 112.5 117.6 115.9
22 Arkansas 118.0 112.4 117.2 115.9
23 Arizona St. 116.4 111.7 115.8 114.6
24 Georgia Tech 115.9 113.0 114.9 114.6
25 Michigan St. 115.6 111.4 114.5 113.8
26 Florida St. 113.6 113.9 112.2 113.2
27 West Virginia 115.2 109.9 114.6 113.2
28 Oregon 115.5 107.9 114.4 112.6
29 Mississippi St. 114.0 110.0 113.6 112.5
30 Auburn 113.6 111.4 112.4 112.5
31 Oklahoma St. 113.0 111.1 113.2 112.4
32 Virginia Tech 111.2 109.9 111.3 110.8
33 Louisville 109.6 112.4 110.2 110.7
34 Wisconsin 110.2 110.7 109.6 110.2
35 Temple 108.8 111.1 109.9 109.9
36 North Carolina St. 109.7 110.9 108.6 109.7
37 Texas Tech 112.4 103.7 112.6 109.6
38 Arizona 111.6 105.7 110.4 109.2
39 Duke 108.6 109.4 109.6 109.2
40 Missouri 109.5 106.3 108.5 108.1
41 Iowa 106.8 109.6 107.6 108.0
42 Western Kentucky 107.2 106.7 108.8 107.6
43 Miami 107.1 107.7 107.4 107.4
44 Nebraska 108.3 106.1 107.3 107.2
45 Washington 107.5 105.6 108.4 107.2
46 Kansas St. 110.6 99.6 109.9 106.7
47 Northwestern 106.5 106.5 106.0 106.3
48 Texas 107.1 104.7 107.0 106.3
49 Minnesota 106.6 105.4 106.0 106.0
50 Pittsburgh 105.2 106.3 106.3 105.9
51 Penn St. 104.5 107.3 104.9 105.6
52 Illinois 106.5 104.3 105.4 105.4
53 Memphis 104.7 105.1 105.8 105.2
54 Cincinnati 104.5 105.1 105.8 105.1
55 Houston 101.3 109.3 104.0 104.9
56 South Carolina 106.7 103.0 104.7 104.8
57 Kentucky 106.1 102.7 105.4 104.7
58 BYU 104.9 103.5 105.5 104.6
59 Toledo 103.0 102.2 104.6 103.3
60 Colorado 104.6 99.5 103.2 102.4
61 Navy 100.1 103.2 100.9 101.4
62 Boston College 100.3 104.4 98.6 101.1
63 Bowling Green 98.3 102.7 100.4 100.5
64 Washington St. 102.2 97.6 101.4 100.4
65 Louisiana Tech 100.2 98.7 100.9 99.9
66 Utah St. 99.6 99.8 99.9 99.8
67 Vanderbilt 101.2 96.1 100.8 99.4
68 Virginia 100.5 97.7 99.8 99.3
69 Appalachian St. 97.0 100.3 99.0 98.8
70 Wake Forest 96.2 100.4 95.5 97.4
71 Indiana 97.1 98.1 96.9 97.4
72 East Carolina 96.0 99.2 96.8 97.3
73 Georgia Southern 96.3 98.6 97.1 97.3
74 Purdue 98.0 97.3 96.6 97.3
75 San Diego St. 95.0 100.0 96.1 97.0
76 Rutgers 97.8 94.6 96.0 96.1
77 Ohio 93.8 98.5 95.7 96.0
78 Marshall 95.5 96.1 96.0 95.9
79 Western Michigan 95.5 95.0 96.6 95.7
80 Middle Tennessee 95.6 94.4 95.1 95.0
81 Air Force 93.5 98.1 93.0 94.9
82 San Jose St. 93.7 96.7 93.8 94.7
83 Northern Illinois 93.4 96.4 94.1 94.6
84 Syracuse 93.4 96.8 92.4 94.2
85 South Florida 91.2 97.8 91.5 93.5
86 Tulsa 90.8 96.0 91.9 92.9
87 Maryland 94.1 91.3 93.0 92.8
88 Iowa St. 94.3 90.5 93.2 92.7
89 Florida International 91.2 93.8 92.8 92.6
90 Nevada 90.3 94.3 90.0 91.5
91 Colorado St. 92.8 90.0 91.1 91.3
92 Oregon St. 91.5 88.6 89.6 89.9
93 Akron 86.7 93.4 88.5 89.5
94 Central Michigan 87.4 91.2 89.6 89.4
95 Southern Mississippi 89.2 90.0 88.7 89.3
96 Arkansas St. 88.6 88.5 89.3 88.8
97 New Mexico 88.8 89.5 87.6 88.6
98 Massachusetts 87.0 90.3 88.5 88.6
99 Connecticut 86.2 91.7 87.3 88.4
100 Tulane 87.7 90.0 86.4 88.0
101 Hawaii 86.9 89.1 86.9 87.6
102 Buffalo 84.1 91.3 86.6 87.3
103 SMU 85.1 89.0 85.1 86.4
104 Ball St. 85.2 87.7 85.9 86.3
105 Rice 83.9 87.8 84.4 85.4
106 UL-Lafayette 83.9 87.7 84.5 85.4
107 Central Florida 83.9 87.1 84.2 85.1
108 UNLV 82.8 85.4 84.0 84.1
109 UT-San Antonio 81.5 84.3 83.3 83.0
110 Kent St. 82.1 84.4 82.5 83.0
111 Florida Atlantic 81.4 85.2 81.7 82.8
112 Fresno St. 82.0 86.1 80.1 82.7
113 Army 78.4 87.9 79.9 82.1
114 UL-Monroe 82.0 79.8 81.8 81.2
115 Texas St. 79.9 83.4 79.0 80.8
116 South Alabama 76.1 83.2 77.9 79.1
117 Wyoming 78.6 81.0 77.4 79.0
118 Old Dominion 76.5 82.2 75.4 78.0
119 UTEP 75.7 78.1 75.3 76.4
120 Eastern Michigan 73.5 82.6 73.0 76.4
121 Miami (O) 74.7 79.5 74.6 76.3
122 Troy 75.2 75.6 77.0 75.9
123 North Texas 72.6 78.3 72.7 74.5
124 New Mexico St. 73.8 74.9 74.0 74.2
125 Idaho 70.7 78.2 72.0 73.6
126 Georgia St. 74.0 72.9 73.7 73.5
127 Kansas 75.7 68.9 73.3 72.6
128 Charlotte 69.2 71.3 69.1 69.9

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 2-0 5-0 108.8 111.1 109.9 109.9
Cincinnati 0-2 3-2 104.5 105.1 105.8 105.1
East Carolina 1-1 3-3 96.0 99.2 96.8 97.3
South Florida 0-1 2-3 91.2 97.8 91.5 93.5
Connecticut 1-1 3-3 86.2 91.7 87.3 88.4
Central Florida 0-2 0-6 83.9 87.1 84.2 85.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-0 5-0 104.7 105.1 105.8 105.2
Houston 2-0 5-0 101.3 109.3 104.0 104.9
Navy 2-0 4-1 100.1 103.2 100.9 101.4
Tulsa 0-1 3-2 90.8 96.0 91.9 92.9
Tulane 1-1 2-3 87.7 90.0 86.4 88.0
SMU 0-2 1-5 85.1 89.0 85.1 86.4
             
AAC Averages     95.0 98.7 95.8 96.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 2-0 5-0 117.6 118.4 117.9 118.0
Florida St. 3-0 5-0 113.6 113.9 112.2 113.2
Louisville 1-1 2-3 109.6 112.4 110.2 110.7
North Carolina St. 0-2 4-2 109.7 110.9 108.6 109.7
Boston College 0-3 3-3 100.3 104.4 98.6 101.1
Wake Forest 1-2 3-3 96.2 100.4 95.5 97.4
Syracuse 1-0 3-2 93.4 96.8 92.4 94.2
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 1-0 4-1 116.2 116.1 116.0 116.1
Georgia Tech 0-3 2-4 115.9 113.0 114.9 114.6
Virginia Tech 1-1 3-3 111.2 109.9 111.3 110.8
Duke 2-0 5-1 108.6 109.4 109.6 109.2
Miami 0-1 3-2 107.1 107.7 107.4 107.4
Pittsburgh 2-0 4-1 105.2 106.3 106.3 105.9
Virginia 0-1 1-4 100.5 97.7 99.8 99.3
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.4 107.2 107.7
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 2-0 5-0 129.8 126.6 130.8 129.1
TCU 3-0 6-0 128.4 119.1 129.1 125.5
Oklahoma 1-1 4-1 119.5 116.5 119.5 118.5
West Virginia 0-2 3-2 115.2 109.9 114.6 113.2
Oklahoma St. 3-0 6-0 113.0 111.1 113.2 112.4
Texas Tech 1-2 4-2 112.4 103.7 112.6 109.6
Kansas St. 0-2 3-2 110.6 99.6 109.9 106.7
Texas 1-2 2-4 107.1 104.7 107.0 106.3
Iowa St. 1-1 2-3 94.3 90.5 93.2 92.7
Kansas 0-2 0-5 75.7 68.9 73.3 72.6
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 2-0 6-0 126.4 119.1 126.9 124.1
Michigan 2-0 5-1 120.2 117.4 120.7 119.4
Michigan St. 2-0 6-0 115.6 111.4 114.5 113.8
Penn St. 2-0 5-1 104.5 107.3 104.9 105.6
Indiana 0-2 4-2 97.1 98.1 96.9 97.4
Rutgers 0-2 2-3 97.8 94.6 96.0 96.1
Maryland 0-2 2-4 94.1 91.3 93.0 92.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 1-1 4-2 110.2 110.7 109.6 110.2
Iowa 2-0 6-0 106.8 109.6 107.6 108.0
Nebraska 0-2 2-4 108.3 106.1 107.3 107.2
Northwestern 1-1 5-1 106.5 106.5 106.0 106.3
Minnesota 1-1 4-2 106.6 105.4 106.0 106.0
Illinois 1-1 4-2 106.5 104.3 105.4 105.4
Purdue 0-2 1-5 98.0 97.3 96.6 97.3
             
Big Ten Averages     107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 3-0 5-1 107.2 106.7 108.8 107.6
Marshall 2-0 5-1 95.5 96.1 96.0 95.9
Middle Tennessee 1-1 2-4 95.6 94.4 95.1 95.0
Florida International 1-1 3-3 91.2 93.8 92.8 92.6
Florida Atlantic 1-1 1-4 81.4 85.2 81.7 82.8
Old Dominion 0-1 2-3 76.5 82.2 75.4 78.0
Charlotte 0-2 2-3 69.2 71.3 69.1 69.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 2-1 4-2 100.2 98.7 100.9 99.9
Southern Mississippi 1-1 3-3 89.2 90.0 88.7 89.3
Rice 2-1 3-3 83.9 87.8 84.4 85.4
UT-San Antonio 1-1 1-5 81.5 84.3 83.3 83.0
UTEP 0-2 2-4 75.7 78.1 75.3 76.4
North Texas 0-2 0-5 72.6 78.3 72.7 74.5
             
CUSA Averages     86.1 88.2 86.5 86.9
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 122.5 119.2 122.5 121.4
BYU   4-2 104.9 103.5 105.5 104.6
Army   1-5 78.4 87.9 79.9 82.1
             
Independents Averages     101.9 103.5 102.6 102.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 2-0 4-2 98.3 102.7 100.4 100.5
Ohio 2-0 5-1 93.8 98.5 95.7 96.0
Akron 1-1 3-3 86.7 93.4 88.5 89.5
Massachusetts 0-1 1-4 87.0 90.3 88.5 88.6
Buffalo 0-1 2-3 84.1 91.3 86.6 87.3
Kent St. 1-1 2-4 82.1 84.4 82.5 83.0
Miami (O) 0-2 1-5 74.7 79.5 74.6 76.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 2-0 5-0 103.0 102.2 104.6 103.3
Western Michigan 1-0 2-3 95.5 95.0 96.6 95.7
Northern Illinois 1-1 3-3 93.4 96.4 94.1 94.6
Central Michigan 1-1 2-4 87.4 91.2 89.6 89.4
Ball St. 1-2 2-4 85.2 87.7 85.9 86.3
Eastern Michigan 0-2 1-5 73.5 82.6 73.0 76.4
             
MAC Averages     88.1 91.9 89.3 89.8
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 2-0 5-1 117.8 113.4 117.8 116.3
Utah St. 2-0 3-2 99.6 99.8 99.9 99.8
Air Force 2-0 3-2 93.5 98.1 93.0 94.9
Colorado St. 0-2 2-4 92.8 90.0 91.1 91.3
New Mexico 1-1 3-3 88.8 89.5 87.6 88.6
Wyoming 0-2 0-6 78.6 81.0 77.4 79.0
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-0 3-3 95.0 100.0 96.1 97.0
San Jose St. 2-1 3-3 93.7 96.7 93.8 94.7
Nevada 1-1 3-3 90.3 94.3 90.0 91.5
Hawaii 0-2 2-4 86.9 89.1 86.9 87.6
UNLV 1-1 2-4 82.8 85.4 84.0 84.1
Fresno St. 0-3 1-5 82.0 86.1 80.1 82.7
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.5 92.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 3-0 4-1 121.7 120.5 121.7 121.3
California 2-1 5-1 117.5 112.5 117.6 115.9
Oregon 1-2 3-3 115.5 107.9 114.4 112.6
Washington 1-1 3-2 107.5 105.6 108.4 107.2
Washington St. 1-1 3-2 102.2 97.6 101.4 100.4
Oregon St. 0-2 2-3 91.5 88.6 89.6 89.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Utah 2-0 5-0 125.2 119.3 124.4 123.0
USC 1-2 3-2 120.7 117.2 120.7 119.5
UCLA 1-1 4-1 121.8 115.3 119.6 118.9
Arizona St. 2-1 4-2 116.4 111.7 115.8 114.6
Arizona 1-2 4-2 111.6 105.7 110.4 109.2
Colorado 0-2 3-3 104.6 99.5 103.2 102.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.5 112.3 111.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-2 4-2 120.8 113.4 119.8 118.0
Florida 4-0 6-0 118.8 115.8 119.0 117.9
Tennessee 1-2 3-3 119.2 114.5 118.7 117.5
Missouri 1-2 4-2 109.5 106.3 108.5 108.1
South Carolina 0-4 2-4 106.7 103.0 104.7 104.8
Kentucky 2-1 4-1 106.1 102.7 105.4 104.7
Vanderbilt 0-2 2-3 101.2 96.1 100.8 99.4
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 2-1 5-1 127.6 125.3 127.0 126.6
Ole Miss 2-1 5-1 124.5 118.1 122.4 121.7
LSU 3-0 5-0 122.7 119.4 122.6 121.6
Texas A&M 2-0 5-0 121.4 119.2 120.5 120.4
Arkansas 1-2 2-4 118.0 112.4 117.2 115.9
Mississippi St. 1-2 4-2 114.0 110.0 113.6 112.5
Auburn 0-2 3-2 113.6 111.4 112.4 112.5
             
SEC Averages     116.0 112.0 115.2 114.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 4-1 97.0 100.3 99.0 98.8
Georgia Southern 2-0 4-1 96.3 98.6 97.1 97.3
Arkansas St. 1-0 2-3 88.6 88.5 89.3 88.8
UL-Lafayette 1-0 2-3 83.9 87.7 84.5 85.4
UL-Monroe 0-1 1-4 82.0 79.8 81.8 81.2
Texas St. 0-1 1-4 79.9 83.4 79.0 80.8
South Alabama 1-0 3-2 76.1 83.2 77.9 79.1
Troy 0-1 1-4 75.2 75.6 77.0 75.9
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-5 73.8 74.9 74.0 74.2
Idaho 0-2 1-4 70.7 78.2 72.0 73.6
Georgia St. 1-1 1-4 74.0 72.9 73.7 73.5
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.6 83.9 82.3 82.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 116.0 112.0 115.2 114.4
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.5 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
4 ACC 107.5 108.4 107.2 107.7
5 Big Ten 107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 101.9 103.5 102.6 102.7
7 AAC 95.0 98.7 95.8 96.5
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.5 92.3
9 MAC 88.1 91.9 89.3 89.8
10 CUSA 86.1 88.2 86.5 86.9
11 SBC 81.6 83.9 82.3 82.6

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 Utah
3 LSU
4 Clemson

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid

# Team
1 Temple
2 Toledo
3 Houston
4 Memphis
5 Boise St.

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10

# Team
10 Vanderbilt
9 Virginia
8 Wake Forest
7 Indiana
6 Purdue
5 Syracuse
4 Maryland
3 Iowa St.
2 Oregon St.
1 Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.6
2 North Dakota St. 95.8
3 Harvard 94.5
4 Coastal Carolina 91.7
5 South Dakota St. 90.8
6 Dartmouth 90.7
7 Illinois St. 89.8
8 Chattanooga 89.7
9 James Madison 89.6
10 McNeese St. 89.0

 

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Temple vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. vs. Middle Tennessee
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Oregon vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Cincinnati vs. Marshall
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Colorado St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC UL-Lafayette * vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army San Diego St. vs. Syracuse *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Western Kentucky vs. Ohio U
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. Boise St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA East Carolina vs. Florida Int’l.
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina vs. Arizona St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Kansas St. vs. Rice
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Wisconsin
Independence SEC ACC Old Dominion * vs. Miami
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Washington
Military ACC AAC Navy vs. North Carolina St.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Illinois vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma St.
Arizona CUSA MWC Southern Miss. vs. San Jose St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Kentucky
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Nevada *
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Mississippi St.
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Alabama vs. Florida St.
Cotton Playoff Playoff Baylor vs. Michigan
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Utah
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. California
Ouback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC Florida vs. TCU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 LSU vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma vs. UCLA
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas vs. Arizona
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners   vs.  
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, October 13        
South Alabama Arkansas St. -10.0 -2.8 -8.9
         
Thursday, October 15        
Kentucky Auburn -4.5 -5.7 -4.0
North Texas Western Kentucky -32.1 -25.9 -33.6
Stanford UCLA 2.9 8.2 5.1
         
Friday, October 16        
BYU Cincinnati 3.9 1.9 3.2
Utah St. Boise St. -15.7 -11.1 -15.4
Tulane Houston -11.6 -17.3 -15.6
Fresno St. UNLV 1.7 3.2 -1.4
         
Saturday, October 17        
Middle Tennessee Florida Int’l. 6.9 3.1 4.8
Kansas Texas Tech -34.2 -32.3 -36.8
Memphis Ole Miss -17.8 -11.0 -14.6
Mississippi St. Louisiana Tech 16.3 13.8 15.2
Florida St. Louisville 7.0 4.5 5.0
Baylor West Virginia 17.6 19.7 19.2
Northwestern Iowa 2.2 -0.6 0.9
Wisconsin Purdue 15.2 16.4 16.0
Florida Atlantic Marshall -11.6 -8.4 -11.8
Connecticut South Florida -2.5 -3.6 -1.7
East Carolina Tulsa 8.2 6.2 7.9
Ohio U Western Michigan 0.8 6.0 1.6
Toledo Eastern Michigan 32.5 22.6 34.6
Georgia Tech Pittsburgh 13.7 9.7 11.6
Central Michigan Buffalo 5.8 2.4 5.5
Miami (O) Northern Illinois -16.7 -14.9 -17.5
Bowling Green Akron 13.6 11.3 13.9
Ball St. Georgia St. 14.2 17.8 15.2
Massachusetts Kent St. 7.9 8.9 9.0
Colorado St. Air Force 1.3 -6.1 0.1
Troy Idaho 8.0 0.9 8.5
Miami (FL) Virginia Tech -1.1 0.8 -0.9
Texas A&M Alabama -3.2 -3.1 -3.5
Virginia Syracuse 10.1 3.9 10.4
Old Dominion Charlotte 9.3 12.9 8.3
Kansas St. Oklahoma -2.9 -13.9 -6.6
Indiana Rutgers 2.3 6.5 3.9
Michigan Michigan St. 6.6 8.0 8.2
Minnesota Nebraska 1.3 2.3 1.7
Washington St. Oregon St. 13.7 12.0 14.8
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.5 9.9 6.9
Wyoming Nevada -9.2 -10.8 -10.1
Georgia Southern New Mexico St. 26.0 27.2 26.6
UL-Monroe Appalachian St. -12.0 -17.5 -14.2
New Mexico Hawaii 5.4 3.9 4.2
LSU Florida 6.9 6.6 6.6
North Carolina Wake Forest 22.0 17.7 22.5
Clemson Boston College 20.3 17.0 22.3
Iowa St. TCU -31.1 -25.6 -32.9
Southern Miss. Texas-San Antonio 10.7 8.7 8.4
Temple Central Florida 27.4 26.5 28.2
Notre Dame USC 4.8 5.0 4.8
Georgia Missouri 14.3 10.1 14.3
Ohio St. Penn St. 24.9 14.8 25.0
Colorado Arizona -4.0 -3.2 -4.2
Utah Arizona St. 11.8 10.6 11.6
Washington Oregon -5.0 0.7 -3.0
San Jose St. San Diego St. 1.2 -0.8 0.2
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 7 PiRate    
Army Bucknell 22    

 

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