The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings Final Bracketology Prediction

Date3/14/2021FINAL
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorIllinoisMichigan
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaHouston
3Oklahoma St.ArkansasKansasTexas
4West VirginiaPurdueVirginiaFlorida St.
5TennesseeVillanovaCreightonTexas Tech
6ColoradoUSCLSUMissouri
7BYUOklahomaOregonClemson
8ConnecticutSan Diego St.WisconsinFlorida
9Virginia TechLoyola (Chi.)Georgia TechNorth Carolina
10RutgersSt. BonaventureMarylandVCU
11LouisvilleMichigan St.UCLASyracuseUtah St.Drake
12Oregon St.GeorgetownNorth TexasWinthrop
13Ohio ULibertyUNCGUCSB
14ColgateMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.DrexelGrand CanyonIona
16Oral RobertsHartfordNorfolk St.Mount St. Mary’sTexas SouthernAppalachian St.

1st Four Out

69Wichita St.
70Colorado St.
71Saint Louis
72Boise St.

1st 4 Games

11 UCLA vs. 11 Drake

11 Syracuse vs. 11 Utah St.

16 Norfolk St. vs. 16 Mount St. Mary’s

16 Texas Southern vs. 16 Appalachian St.

March 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:43 am
Date3/13/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaOklahoma St.
3HoustonArkansasKansasTexas
4Florida St.PurdueWest VirginiaVirginia
5TennesseeCreightonColoradoVillanova
6OregonUSCTexas TechMissouri
7LSUOklahomaWisconsinClemson
8BYUFloridaLoyola (Chi.)North Carolina
9RutgersSan Diego St.Virginia TechConnecticut
10St. BonaventureGeorgia TechVCUMaryland
11Wichita St.Michigan St.UCLALouisville
12Western Ky.WinthropSyracuseDrakeUtah St.Ole Miss
13UCSBLibertyUNCGColgate
14BuffaloMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.Grand CanyonOral RobertsDrexel
16IonaMount St. Mary’sAppalachian St.HartfordNorfolk St.Prairie View A&M

First Four Out–Alternates

69 Saint Louis

70 Colorado St.

71 Boise St.

72 Xavier

Potential Bubble Busters: Memphis. Georgetown, and Oregon St.

March 11, 2021

A Quick Look At The Bubble

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:39 am

Thursday, March 11 Prior To Start of Today’s Games

It’s just a little more than 80 hours until the Selection Sunday bids are announced. We will have our final bracketology Sunday around 4 PM EST, unless there is a final tournament game that would affect the seeding.

As of this morning, here is our look at the teams in the gray area, on the bubble.

Let’s start with the teams that we believe are currently in the field if the bids were awarded today, but that are vulnerable to being bumped if other teams play their way into the field.

Louisville: The Cardinals lost in their first ACC Tournament game to fellow bubbler Duke. The Cardinals took a 6-spot dive in the Net Ratings after the loss, and they are in jeopardy of falling out of the tournament if a host of teams play their way in. At 13-7, they finished the season 4-6. UL won just one Quad 1 game, but they were 6-1 in Quad 2 games. Their chances of making the field are still about 85-90%, but they could find themselves playing that extra at-large play-in game.

Xavier: The Musketeers are in a much more precarious position following their immediate Big East Tournament ouster. Xavier fell to 62 in the Net, and they too finished 4-6 after starting 9-2. If a couple of teams still playing advance a couple rounds in their tournaments, it could be lights out for the Musketeers. Their chances of making the field are close to 50-50 today.

Drake: The Bulldogs lost to Loyola in the Arch Madness Championship Game to finish 23-4 with two losses to the Ramblers. A #45 Net with a 6-2 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, including one win over Loyola should be enough to keep Drake in a safe spot in this field. Their chances of making the field are about 95%.

Wichita St.: The Selection Committee does not compare teams within the same conference in theory, but when looking at each team’s resumes, they are basically forced to look at who they beat and didn’t beat, and obviously more games are played in-conference, especially this season. Wichita St. is rated behind Memphis in the Net, and their 13-4 record includes a 9-0 mark against Quad 3 & 4 teams. On the plus side, the Shockers finished 9-1 with a win over Houston. The Shockers need to make it to at least the semifinals of the AAC Tournament; a loss to the USF-Temple winner would really jeopardize their tournament hopes. On the good side, Wichita looks to have an express seeding to the AAC Championship Game, so we give them a better than 50-50 chance to Dance.

Syracuse: Yesterday’s pasting of potential Bubble team North Carolina St. has given the Orangemen a legitimate shot to make the field with an upset of Virginia today. SU is now at 39 in the Net. A 1-6 Quad 1 record is poor, but the 5-1 Quad 2 has the Orangemen in position to move into the at-large positive category with a win today. A loss to the Cavs would not totally eliminate SU, depending on what happens in other tournaments. We give SU a 55% chance of making the field. If they stay in the top 40 of the Net, they should get in.

Boise St.: The Mountain West Conference has four teams competing for bids. There might be three awarded. Boise State has 2 Quad 1 wins, and their Net is currently 43. A win over Nevada today is mandatory. If they get that win, then a decent showing against San Diego State tomorrow should be satisfactory. We give BSU a 55-60% chance of making the field.

Colorado St.: Wins at San Diego St. and at Utah St. had the Rams at the top of the MWC in January, but CSU has swooned since and is in danger of playing themselves out of the field. With a Net of 50, a quarterfinal round loss to Fresno St. today would be a dagger in their hearts or dancing shoes. The Rams must win today, and then they might have to beat the Utah St.-UNLV winner tomorrow. If they play USU, it could be an eliminator game.

UCLA: The Bruins are March Madness royalty. The humans on the Selection Committee will find a way to justify placing them in the Dance. A quarterfinal win in the Pac-12 Tournament would more than suffice along with their moving into the top 40 in the Net. UCLA has a 75-80% chance to make the field.

Michigan St.: The Spartans will be hurt if the Net Ratings prove to be as important as the first 16-team pre-selection made by the Committee a month ago. MSU is a low 67 in the Net, but they are coming off a win over 1-seed line Michigan and have 5 Quad 1 wins. The Big Ten schedule, along with a win at Duke, should be enough for Sparty to celebrate with a Dance ticket on Sunday. A win over Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament sets it in stone.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have work to do. They would not be in the field if the Selections were made today, but Ole Miss has a path to get in. They absolutely must defeat South Carolina today and then will have to upset LSU tomorrow to raise their Net of 53 up to the low 40’s at worst. Two wins over Missouri and one over Tennessee are not enough to warrant their selection. Their chances of making the Dance are around 30%.

Utah St.: The Aggies are just outside the Field today, but they swept San Diego State and have a resume ready to move them into the field with a win over UNLV today and then a win over Colorado State in a knockout game tomorrow. If they don’t win two games, they lose out.

SMU: The Mustangs need a lot of help to get in. Teams above them on this list have to play their way out of the field, and SMU needs to do damage in the AAC Tournament, maybe make it to the Championship Game against Houston (not Memphis). A 55 Net is too low to warrant a bid. Their chance to get in is about 20%.

Memphis: It’s awful that the only a desperation heave at the basket by an out of control Houston player could keep the Tigers out of the field. Memphis had a chance to move up into the 40’s in the Net and now sits at 52, which is not good enough. Memphis will have to make it to the Championship Game of the AAC Tournament and face Wichita State in that game to still have an at-large shot. More realistically, the Tigers may need to qualify automatically at this point.

Seton Hall & St. John’s: These two teams face off today in the Big East Tournament. The winner stays alive, while the loser can only think about NIT Selection. The winner still has work to do, maybe needing another tournament win, especially over top-seed Villanova. If Georgetown beats the Hoyas today, then the winner of the SH-SJ game must beat GU tomorrow. St. John’s might still need one more win after that.

Duke: The Eastern equivalent of UCLA, the Blue Devils are March Madness royalty. Like a heavyweight champion in a boxing match, if it goes 15 rounds, the champion will at the least win on a split decision. Duke will qualify for that split decision today if they beat Florida St. The Committee will invent the reason to leapfrog the Blue Devils over eight teams to get them in the Field. A loss today would make them 13-12 with a Net in the 50’s, so they need that win today.

Saint Louis: The Billikens were greatly harmed by a multiple-game cancellation in the regular season. Wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure in the regular season are not going to be enough, and SLU lost to the Bonnies in the A-10 Tournament. It’s not going to be a happy Sunday in the Gateway to the West.

January 11, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, January 11, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:32 am

Friday, January 11, 2019

Seed List

Seed Team League
1 Virginia ACC
1 Duke ACC
1 Michigan Big Ten
1 Texas Tech Big 12
2 Tennessee SEC
2 Gonzaga WCC
2 Michigan St. Big Ten
2 North Carolina ACC
3 Houston AAC
3 Virginia Tech ACC
3 Kansas Big 12
3 Kentucky SEC
4 Buffalo MAC
4 Nebraska Big Ten
4 Oklahoma Big 12
4 Wisconsin Big Ten
5 NC State ACC
5 Indiana Big Ten
5 Iowa St. Big 12
5 Marquette Big East
6 Florida St. ACC
6 Auburn SEC
6 LSU SEC
6 Maryland Big Ten
7 Purdue Big Ten
7 St. John’s (NY) Big East
7 Nevada MWC
7 Ole Miss SEC
8 Villanova Big East
8 Mississippi St. SEC
8 UCF AAC
8 Louisville ACC
9 Wofford SoCon
9 TCU Big 12
9 Iowa Big Ten
9 Ohio St. Big Ten
10 Cincinnati AAC
10 San Francisco WCC
10 Florida SEC
10 North Texas C-USA
11 Liberty ASUN
11 Washington Pac-12
11 Seton Hall Big East
12 Syracuse ACC
12 Utah St. MWC
12 Butler Big East
12 Texas Big 12
12 VCU Atlantic 10
12 Creighton Big East
12 Kansas St. Big 12
13 Murray St. OVC
13 Hofstra CAA
13 Yale Ivy League
13 Vermont America East
14 Texas St. Sun Belt
14 Radford Big South
14 New Mexico St. WAC
14 Loyola Chicago MVC
15 Northern Ky. Horizon
15 UC Irvine Big West
15 South Dakota St. Summit 
15 Lehigh Patriot
16 Montana Big Sky
16 Abilene Christian Southland
16 Rider MAAC
16 Texas Southern SWAC
16 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC
16 N.C. A&T MEAC

 

Last Four In

Butler
Texas
Creighton
Kansas St.

 

Last 4 Byes

Florida
Temple
Seton Hall
Syracuse

 

First 4 Out

Alabama
Minnesota
Arizona
Clemson

 

Next 4 Out

Northwestern
Fresno St.
Saint Louis
Arizona St.

 

Games in Dayton

Butler vs. Kansas St.

Texas vs. Creighton

Rider vs. North Carolina A&T

Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

Changes to PiRate Ratings Bracketology

The former Bracket Gurus have been inconsistent in submitting their bracketology to us, and most of them say they are too busy to send us their reports every week.  Thus, beginning today, what you see is the PiRate Ratings’ own bracketology based on the information we have that says exactly what the NCAA Selection Committee must use as its resources in determining the teams and seeds.  Thus, this is how the PiRate Ratings would vote if the tournament started today.

Now that the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology is in-house, we will be able to update these seeds more than once per week.

January 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, January 7, 2019

1/7/2019

Seed Team Conf. Avg.
1 Duke ACC 1.00
1 Michigan BTEN 1.11
1 Virginia ACC 1.22
1 Michigan St. BTEN 1.33
2 Tennessee SEC 1.56
2 Kansas B12 1.89
2 Gonzaga WCC 2.00
2 Texas Tech B12 2.56
3 North Carolina ACC 3.22
3 Oklahoma B12 3.44
3 Virginia Tech ACC 3.44
3 Auburn SEC 3.78
4 Mississippi St. SEC 3.89
4 Nevada MWC 4.11
4 Florida St. ACC 4.11
4 Houston AAC 4.67
5 North Carolina St. ACC 4.89
5 Ohio St. BTEN 5.22
5 Kentucky SEC 5.22
5 Wisconsin BTEN 5.67
6 Marquette BE 6.11
6 Indiana BTEN 6.22
6 Buffalo MAC 6.33
6 Iowa St. B12 6.56
7 St. John’s BE 6.78
7 Nebraska BTEN 6.89
7 TCU B12 7.00
7 Villanova BE 7.44
8 Minnesota BTEN 8.00
8 Cincinnati AAC 8.11
8 Iowa BTEN 8.33
8 Purdue BTEN 8.56
9 Louisville ACC 8.67
9 LSU SEC 8.89
9 Maryland BTEN 9.00
9 Seton Hall BE 9.56
10 UCF AAC 10.33
10 Alabama SEC 10.56
10 Arizona St. P12 11.11
10 Syracuse ACC 11.22
11 VCU A10 11.33
11 UNC-Greensboro SOU 11.56
11 Ole Miss SEC 11.78
11 Texas B12 12.22
12 Murray St. OVC 12.22
12 Temple AAC 12.56
12 North Texas CUSA 12.56
12 Creighton BE 12.89
12 Clemson ACC 13.22
12 San Francisco WCC 16.22
13 Lipscomb ASUN 12.22
13 Georgia St. SBC 13.22
13 Yale IVY 13.22
13 Hofstra CAA 13.33
14 CSU Bakersfield WAC 13.56
14 UC Irvine BW 13.89
14 Loyola-Chi MVC 13.89
14 Vermont AE 14.00
15 Radford BSTH 14.56
15 Northern Colorado BSKY 14.67
15 Lehigh PAT 15.44
15 Purdue Fort Wayne SUM 15.44
16 Northern Kentucky HOR 15.56
16 Stephen F. Austin SLND 15.67
16 Texas Southern SWAC 15.89
16 Rider MAAC 15.89
16 Robert Morris NEC 16.00
16 North Carolina A&T MEAC 16.00

 

Top 4 Out
69 Butler BE 15.33
70 Florida SEC 17.78
71 Northwestern BTEN 18.22
72 Fresno St. MWC 18.22
Next 4 Out
73 St. Louis A10 18.44
74 Kansas St. B12 18.89
75 Arizona P12 19.11
76 Washington P12 19.22

 

Last 4 Byes
10 Alabama SEC 10.56
10 Syracuse ACC 11.22
11 Ole Miss SEC 11.78
11 Texas B12 12.22
Last 4 In — Headed To Dayton
12 Temple AAC 12.56
12 Creighton BE 12.89
12 Clemson ACC 13.22
12 San Francisco WCC 16.22
16 Seeds Headed To Dayton
16 Texas Southern SWAC 15.89
16 Rider MAAC 15.89
16 Robert Morris NEC 16.00
16 North Carolina A&T MEAC 16.00

 

Explanation of Average Scores

The PiRate Ratings Bracketology Ratings consist of 14 contributors to this website.  Each week, the contributors send us their bracketology ratings, which we then compile into a composite average.  At least, that is how it is supposed to work.  In actuality, this week only 8 of the 14 sent us their ratings, and then we included our own as number 9.  So, this week the average comes from 9 bracketologists.

You will note that the lower the average the better the ranking, as a #1 seed is definitely better than a #2 seed and so on.

You will also note that after #12 seed San Francisco, the average number decreases with #13 Lipscomb.  The reason for this is starting with Lipscomb, the remainder of the list are automatic qualifiers.  We first calculate the number of one-bid leagues, and then we fill in the number of at-large teams needed to fill the 68-team field.  Even the last team in the Big Dance will be seeded higher than most of the one-bid league automatic qualifiers, thus San Francisco is seeded at the lowest possible spot for an at-large team.  Lipscomb is the highest-seeded team of the remaining one-bid automatic qualifying leagues, but not the highest-seeded of all the one-bid automatic qualifying leagues, because Nevada, Buffalo, Arizona State, Virginia Commonwealth, and North Texas are seeded higher than some of the at-large qualifiers.

Bids By Conference

Conference #
Big Ten 10
ACC 9
SEC 7
Big 12 6
Big East 5
American 4
West Coast 2
Pac-12 1
Atlantic 10 1
America East 1
Atlantic Sun 1
Big Sky 1
Big South 1
Big West 1
Colonial 1
Conference USA 1
Horizon 1
Ivy 1
MAAC 1
MAC 1
MEAC 1
Missouri Valley 1
Mountain West 1
Northeast 1
Ohio Valley 1
Patriot 1
Sun Belt 1
Southland 1
Southern 1
Summit 1
SWAC 1
WAC 1

The Pac-12 and The Atlantic 10 should eventually get a second team into consideration, as these are aberrations.  Arizona, Washington, and Oregon could work their way into the field from the Pac-12, and St. Louis is on the Bubble from the A-10.

 

 

 

 

March 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for March 5, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:32 am

The Bracket Gurus are doing double duty this week having to keep up with the conference tournaments every day as well as the bracketology.

The Gurus are starting to come to a consensus, as there were only 72 teams that received votes this week, meaning we only have a Top 4 out and not Next 4, since our geniuses feel there are no other teams that as of now have any shot at receiving an at-large invitation.

Consider this: as of today, there have been no teams that have gone from out to in based on their showing in their conference tournaments.  Nebraska failed to show up in the Big Ten Conference Tournament, while Penn State fell one round short of mattering.

Of course, except for the Big Ten Conference, all the power leagues that could possibly produce a team that might win enough to move into consideration have yet to begin conference tournament play.  There are a few teams remaining that still have remote at-large life.  These are:

ACC: Syracuse and Louisville

Big East: Marquette

Big 12: Oklahoma St.

Mountain West: Boise St.

Pac-12: Utah and Washington

SEC: LSU, Georgia, and Mississippi St.

There is the opposite to this discussion.  There are a host of teams that if they lose on the first day or even second day of their tournament, they could fall from in to out.  Another factor that could push these teams out is if upset winners claim automatic bids.  These are the teams that are hanging on by a thread at the current time.

Big 12: Baylor, Kansas St., and Texas

Big East: Providence

Pac-12: USC, Arizona St., and UCLA

SEC: Alabama

West Coast: Saint Mary’s

Which dark horse teams could make a run to an upset championship in each power conference?  (Does not include teams currently on the Bubble)

American: Tulsa

Atlantic 10: Davidson

ACC: Notre Dame

Big 12: None, because all that’s left is Iowa St. and we do not see the Cyclones winning.

Big East: St. John’s

Pac-12: Stanford

SEC: South Carolina

West Coast: BYU

Here are the seeds as our Bracket Gurus predict.  Teams in RED have clinched an automatic bid.

Seed Team Conference
1 Virginia ACC
1 Villanova B-EAST
1 Xavier B-EAST
1 Kansas B12
2 Duke ACC
2 Purdue B-TEN
2 Michigan St. B-TEN
2 Auburn SEC
3 North Carolina ACC
3 Cincinnati AAC
3 Tennessee SEC
3 Texas Tech B12
4 Wichita St. AAC
4 Michigan B-TEN
4 West Virginia B12
4 Arizona PAC-12
5 Clemson ACC
5 Gonzaga WCC
5 Ohio St. B-TEN
5 Kentucky SEC
6 Florida SEC
6 Houston AAC
6 Texas A&M SEC
6 TCU B12
7 Miami (Fla.) ACC
7 Arkansas SEC
7 Seton Hall B-EAST
7 Nevada MWC
8 Rhode Island A-10
8 Virginia Tech ACC
8 Missouri SEC
8 Oklahoma B12
9 Creighton B-EAST
9 Florida St. ACC
9 North Carolina St. ACC
9 Butler B-EAST
10 St. Bonaventure A-10
10 UCLA PAC-12
10 Middle Tennessee CUSA
10 Texas B12
11 Arizona St. PAC-12
11 Saint Mary’s WCC
11 Providence B-EAST
11 USC PAC-12
11 Alabama SEC
12 New Mexico St. WAC
12 Buffalo MAC
12 Murray St. OVC
12 Kansas St. B12
12 Baylor B12
13 UL-Lafayette SBC
13 South Dakota St. SUMMIT
13 Vermont A-EAST
13 Charleston CAA
14 UNC-Greensboro SOCON
14 Bucknell PATRIOT
14 Loyola (Chi.) MVC
14 Montana B-SKY
15 UC Davis B-WEST
15 Wright St. HORIZON
15 Wagner NEC
15 Lipscomb A-SUN
16 Penn IVY
16 Iona MAAC
16 Radford B-SOUTH
16 Hampton MEAC
16 Nicholls St. SLC
16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff SWAC

The First Four in Dayton

USC vs. Baylor

Alabama vs. Kansas St.

Radford vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff

Hampton vs. Nicholls St.

 

Top 4 Out 

Marquette B-EAST
Syracuse ACC
Louisville ACC
Utah PAC-12

Multiple Bid Leagues

Conference #
ACC 8
Big 12 8
SEC 8
Big East 6
Big Ten 4
Pac-12 4
American 3
Atlantic 10 2
West Coast 2

There are currently 23, one-bid leagues.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 5, 2018

Today’s PiRate Rating Spreads for Conference Tournament Games 

Home Team Visitor  
or Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Charleston William & Mary 4.1
Northeastern UNC-Wilmington 9.6
Oakland Cleveland St. 8.4
Wright St. Milwaukee 4.0
Iona Fairfield 4.7
Central Michigan Bowling Green 7.6
Kent St. Northern Illinois 5.5
Miami (O) Ohio 2.7
Western Michigan Akron 7.8
North Carolina A&T Delaware St. 10.4
Norfolk St. Md. Eastern Shore 12.2
UNC-Greensboro East Tennessee St. -0.3
South Dakota St. North Dakota St. 6.4
South Dakota Denver 10.5
Gonzaga San Francisco 14.5
Saint Mary’s BYU 4.5

Yesterday’s Championship Games

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Lipscomb 108 Florida Gulf Coast 96
Big South Conference Tournament
Radford 55 Liberty 52
Big Ten Conference Tournament
Michigan 75 Purdue 66
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Loyola (Chi.) 65 Illinois St. 49

Teams Already In The Field

Team Conf. W-L
Murray St. OVC 26-5
Radford B-South 22-12
Loyola (Chi.) MVC 28-5
Lipscomb A-SUN 23-9
Michigan BTen 28-7

Conference Tournament Championship Games Today

All Times EST

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #4 Iona #6 Fairfield ESPN
Southern Conference Tournament
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM #1 UNC-Greensboro #2 East Tennessee St. ESPN2

 

Other Conference Tournaments In Action Today

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Charleston #4 William & Mary CBSSN
8:30 PM #2 Northeastern #6 UNC-Wilmington CBSSN
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Chas/W&M NE/UNCW CBSSN

 

Horizon League Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #4 Oakland #8 Cleveland St. ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Wright St. #6 Milwaukee ESPNU
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Oak/CSU WSU/Milw ESPN

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament
Cleveland (First Round at Higher Seeds)
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 5
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #8 Central Michigan #9 Bowling Green ESPN3
7:00 PM #5 Kent St. #12 Northern Illinois ESPN3
7:00 PM #7 Miami (O) #10 Ohio U ESPN3
7:45 PM #6 Western Michigan #11 Akron ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Buffalo CMU or BGU ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Ball St. Kent or NIU ESPN3
6:30 PM #2 Toledo Mia or Ohio ESPN3
9:00 PM #3 Eastern Michigan WMU or Akron ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM Buff/CMU/BGU Ball/Kent/NIU CBSSN
9:00 PM Tol/Mia/Ohio EMU/WMU/Akron CBSSN *
* This game will be available at cbssports.com
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Norfolk, VA
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 North Carolina A&T #13 Delaware St. ESPN3
9:00 PM #5 Norfolk St. #12 Md-Eastern Shore ESPN3
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM #8 Howard #9 Florida A&M ESPN3
6:30 PM #6 UNC-Central #11 Coppin St. ESPN3
9:00 PM #7 Morgan St. #10 South Carolina St. ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Hampton Howard or FAMU ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Bethune-Cookman MSU or SCSU ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #3 Savannah St. UNCC or Coppin ESPN3
8:00 PM NCAT or Dela St. Norf St or UMES ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Hampton/Howard/FAMU NCAT/DelSt/NorfSt/UMES ESPN3
8:00 PM BCU/MSU/SCSU Sav/UNCC/Coppin ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Summit League Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 South Dakota St. #5 North Dakota St. ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 South Dakota #3 Denver ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM SDSU/NDSU USD/Denver ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM #1 Gonzaga #4 San Francisco ESPN
11:00 PM #2 Saint Mary’s #3 BYU ESPN2
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM  Gonzaga/USF SMU/BYU  ESPN

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report Coming Later Today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 13, 2016

NCAA Men’s Basketball Conference Tournament Selection Sunday Update #1

The finish line is in site.  Our bracket geniuses have been working through the wee hours of the night, losing an hour of work time due to Daylight Savings Time, and breaking teams down to core parts.

 

As of this morning, with five games left to be played, the 32 Gurus agree on 64 of the 68 teams.  The Bubble has been reduced to 8 teams fighting for four slots.

 

We will release our final bracketology later this afternoon following the end of the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, where Memphis will force 32 Bracket Gurus to quickly re-adjust their brackets if the Tigers knock off Connecticut to earn an automatic bid.  Because our guys say UConn is already in the tournament, a Memphis win will bump one of the Bubble teams out of the dance.

 

Here is today’s schedule

Time Network Conference Team vs. Team
12:30 PM CBS Atlantic 10 VCU vs. St. Joe’s
1:00 PM ESPN-2 Sun Belt UALR vs. UL-Monroe
1:00 PM ESPN SEC Texas A&M vs. Kentucky
3:15 PM ESPN American Connecticut vs. Memphis
3:30 PM CBS Big Ten Michigan St. vs. Purdue

 

Here is The Bubble in order of best to worst.  Thus, for now, the top four are in the tournament and headed to Dayton, while the bottom four are your #1 seeds in the NIT.  As only the Memphis outcome can affect this Bubble, South Carolina and Michigan are the teams worried the most, because one of the two will be squeezed out if Memphis wins.  The bottom four can do nothing now to work their way into the field if our Gurus are on target.

  1. Wichita St.
  2. Saint Bonaventure
  3. Michigan
  4. South Carolina
  5. Saint Mary’s
  6. San Diego St.
  7. Syracuse
  8. Vanderbilt

The final predicted field will be released as soon as we can tabulate the 32 Gurus’ selections following the Memphis-Connecticut game.

 

 

March 7, 2016

NCAA Men’s Basketball Conference Tournament Update: 3/7/16

The appetizer has been served, and now it is time for the main courses to begin.  Five teams have punched tickets to the NCAA Tournament, and three more will receive automatic bids tonight.  A handful of conference tournaments start today as well.

 

These are the teams that have earned automatic bids to date.

Teams Earning Automatic Bids
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay (18-17)
Ivy League: Yale (22-6)
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast (20-13)
Big South: UNC-Asheville (22-11)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (22-12)

 

We have broken the action down into parts.  Let’s take a look first at the tournaments that will conclude tonight by crowning a champion.

 

Automatic Bids Awarded Today
Colonial Athletic: 7:00 PM on NBC Sports Network
#1 Hofstra (24-8) vs. #2 UNC-Wilmington (24-7)
 
Metro Atlantic: 7:00 PM on ESPN
#1 Monmouth (27-6) vs. #2 Iona (21-10)
 
Southern Conference: 9:00 PM on ESPN2
#1 Chattanooga (28-5) vs. #2 East Tennessee (23-10)

 

These are the tournaments that will continue to play non-championship rounds today.

Tournaments In Action Today
 
America East
Semifinal Round
#7 Hartford (10-22) @ #1 Stony Brook (24-6)
#4 New Hampshire (19-11) @ #3 Vermont (20-12)
 
Horizon League
Semifinal Round
#4 Green Bay (21-12) vs. #1 Valparaiso (26-5)
#3 Wright St. (21-12) vs. #2 Oakland (21-10)
 
Mid-American
1st Round
G1:#9 Toledo (17-14) at #8 Eastern Michigan (17-14)
G2: #12 Bowling Green (14-17) at #5 Kent St. (19-12)
G3: #10 Western Michigan (13-18) at #7 Northern Illinois (20-11)
G4: #11 Miami (O) (12-19) at #6 Ball St. (19-12)
 
Mid-eastern Athletic
1st Round
G1: #5 Savannah St. (14-14) vs. #12 Delaware St. (7-24)
G2: #6 North Carolina A&T (10-21) vs. #11 Coppin St. (8-21)
 
West Coast
Semifinal Round
#1 Saint Mary’s (25-4) vs. #4 Pepperdine (18-12)
#2 Gonzaga (24-7) vs. #3 BYU (23-9)

 

These are the brackets for the tournaments that will begin later this week.

American Athletic Conference Tournament
Site: Orlando
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 10
G1: #8 East Carolina (12-19) vs. #9 South Florida (7-24)
G2: #7 Central Florida (12-17) vs. #10 Tulane (10-21)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3: G1 Winner vs. #1 Temple (20-10)
G4: #4 Cincinnati (22-9) vs. #5 Connecticut (21-10)
G5: G2 Winner vs. #2 Houston (22-8)
G6: #3 Tulsa (20-10) vs. #6 Memphis (17-14)
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
3:15 PM on ESPN
 
 
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Sites: Washington, DC
1st Round
Tuesday, March 8
G1: #12 North Carolina St. (15-16) vs. #13 Wake Forest (11-19)
G2: #11 Florida St. (18-12) vs. #14 Boston College (7-24)
 
2nd Round
Wednesday, March 9
G3: #8 Pittsburgh (20-10) vs. #9 Syracuse (19-12)
G4: #5 Duke (22-9) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #7 Clemson (17-13) vs. #10 Georgia Tech (18-13)
G6: #6 Virginia Tech (18-13) vs. G2 Winner
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G7: #1 North Carolina (25-6) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #4 Notre Dame (20-10) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #2 Virginia (24-6) vs. G5 Winner
G10: #3 Miami (24-6) vs. G6 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner
G9 Winner vs. G10 Winner
 
Championship Round
Saturday, March 12
9:00 PM on ESPN
 
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Site: Brooklyn
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #12 George Mason (11-20) vs. #13 St. Louis (10-20)
G2: #11 Duquesne (16-15) vs. #14 LaSalle (8-21)
 
2nd Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #8 Fordham (17-12) vs. #9 Richmond (15-15)
G4: #5 George Washington (22-9) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #7 Rhode Island (17-14) vs. #10 U Mass (13-17)
G6: #6 Davidson (18-11) vs. G2 Winner
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G7: #1 Dayton (24-6) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #4 St. Joseph’s (24-7) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #2 VCU (22-9) vs. G5 Winner
G10: #3 St. Bonaventure (22-7) vs. G6 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner
G9 Winner vs. G10 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
12:30 PM on CBS
 
 
Big 12 Conference Tournament
Site: Kansas City
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #8 Kansas St. (16-15) vs. #9 Oklahoma St. (12-19)
G2: #7 Texas Tech (19-11) vs. #10 TCU (11-20)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #4 Texas (20-11) vs. #5 Baylor (21-10)
G4: #1 Kansas (27-4) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #2 West Virginia (24-7) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Oklahoma (24-6) vs. #6 Iowa St. (21-10)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
 
Championship Game
Saturday, March 12
6:00 PM on ESPN
 
 
Big East Conference Tournament
Site: New York
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #8 Georgetown (14-17) vs. #9 DePaul (9-21)
G2: #7 Marquette (19-12) vs. #10 St. John’s (8-23)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #1 Villanova (27-4) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 Providence (22-9) vs. #5 Butler (21-9)
G5: #2 Xavier (26-4) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Seton Hall (22-8) vs. #6 Creighton (18-13)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
 
Championship Round
Saturday, March 12
5:30 PM on Fox
 
 
Big Sky Conference Tournament
Site: Reno, NV
 
1st Round
Tuesday, March 8
G1: #8 Portland St. (12-17) vs. #9 Northern Colorado (10-20)
G2: #5 North Dakota (15-14) vs. #12 Southern Utah (5-23)
G3: #7 Montana St. (14-16) vs. #10 Sacramento St. (13-16)
G4: #6 Eastern Washington (16-14) vs. #11 Northern Arizona (5-24)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G5: #1 Weber St. (23-8) vs. G1 Winner
G6: #4 Idaho St. (16-14) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #2 Montana (19-10) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #3 Idaho (20-11) vs. G4 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
8:45 PM on ESPNU
 
 
Big Ten Conference Tournament
Site: Indianapolis
 
First Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #12 Illinois (13-18) vs. #13 Minnesota (8-22)
G2: #11 Nebraska (14-17) vs. #14 Rutgers (7-24)
 
Second Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #8 Michigan (20-11) vs. #9 Northwestern (20-11)
G4: #5 Iowa (21-9) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #7 Ohio St. (19-12) vs. #10 Penn St. (16-15)
G6: #6 Wisconsin (20-11) vs. G2 Winner
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G7: #1 Indiana (25-6) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #4 Purdue (24-7) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #2 Michigan St. (26-5) vs. G5 Winner
G10: #3 Maryland (24-7) vs. G6 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
G7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner
G9 Winner vs. G10 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
3:30 PM on CBS
 
 
Big West Conference Tournament
Site: Anaheim
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
#4 UCSB (17-12) vs. #5 UC Davis (10-18)
#1 Hawaii (24-5) vs. #8 Cal St. Fullerton (10-19)
#2 UC-Irvine (24-8) vs. #7 Cal Poly (10-19)
#3 Long Beach St. (18-13) vs. #6 UC Riverside (14-18)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
Highest Remaining Seed vs. Lowest Remaining Seed
2nd Highest Remaining Seed vs. 3rd Highest Remaining Seed
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
11:30 PM on ESPN2
 
 
Conference USA Tournament
Site: Birmingham
 
1st Round
Tuesday, March 8
G1: #12 Florida Atlantic (7-24) vs. #13 UTSA (5-26)
 
2nd Round
Wednesday, March 9
G2: #8 Western Kentucky (16-15) vs. #9 North Texas (12-19)
G3: #5 Old Dominion (19-12) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #7 Charlotte (13-18) vs. #10 Rice (12-19)
G5: #6 UTEP (18-13) vs. #11 Florida Int’l (13-18)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G6: #1 UAB (26-5) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #4 Louisiana Tech (23-8) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #2 Middle Tennessee (21-9) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #3 Marshall (16-15) vs. G5 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
2:30 PM on Fox Sports 1
 
 
Pac-12 Conference Tournament
Site: Las Vegas
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #8 Washington (17-13) vs. #9 Stanford (15-14)
G2: #5 Colorado (21-10) vs. #12 Washington St. (9-21)
G3: #7 USC (20-11) vs. #10 UCLA (15-16)
G4: #6 Oregon St. (18-11) vs. #11 Arizona St. (15-16)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G5: #1 Oregon (25-6) vs. G1 Winner
G6: #4 Arizona (24-7) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #2 Utah (24-7) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #3 California (22-9) vs. G4 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
10:15 PM on FS1
 
 
Southeastern Conference Tournament
Site: Nashville
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #12 Tennessee (13-18) vs. #13 Auburn (11-19)
 
2nd Round
Thursday, March 10
G2: #8 Florida (18-13) vs. #9 Arkansas (16-15)
G3: #5 Vanderbilt (19-12) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #7 Ole Miss (20-11) vs. #10 Alabama (17-13)
G5: #6 Georgia (17-12) vs. #11 Mississippi St. (14-16)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G6: #1 Texas A&M (24-7) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #4 LSU (18-13) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #2 Kentucky (23-8) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #3 South Carolina (24-7) vs. G5 Winnerr
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
G8 Winner vs. G9 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
2:00 PM on ESPN
 
 
Southland Conference Tournament
Site: Katy, TX
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #5 Southeastern Louisiana (11-20) vs. #8 New Orleans (10-19)
G2: #6 McNeese St. (9-19) vs. #7 Nicholls St. (10-22)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #4 Houston Baptist (16-15) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #3 Sam Houston (17-14) vs. G2 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
#1 Stephen F. Austin (25-5) vs. G3 Winner
#2 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (24-6) vs. G4 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
9:30 PM on ESPN2
 
 
Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
Site: Houston
 
1st Round
Tuesday, March 8
G1: #7 Mississippi Valley St. (6-26) vs. #10 Grambling (7-23)
G2: #8 Alabama A&M (10-17) vs. #9 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (8-24)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Wedneday, March 9
G3: #2 Alcorn St. (15-14) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #1 Texas Southern (17-13) vs. G2 Winner
 
Thursday, March 10
G5: #3 Jackson St. (17-14) vs. #6 Prairie View A&M (7-23)
G6; #4 Southern (19-12) vs. #5 Alabama St. (14-16)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3 Winner vs. G5 Winner
G4 Winner vs. G6 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
6:30 PM on ESPNU
 
 
Summit League Tournament
Site: Sioux Falls, SD
 
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G1: #1 IPFW (23-8) vs. #8 South Dakota (14-17)
G2: #2 South Dakota St. (23-7) vs. #7 Oral Roberts (14-16)
 
Sunday, March 6
G3: #4 IUPUI (13-18) vs. #5 North Dakota St. (18-12)
G4: #3 Omaha (18-12) vs. #6 Denver (15-14)
 
Semifinal Round
Monday, March 7
G5: G1 Winner vs. G3 Winner
G6: G2 Winner vs. G4 Winner
 
Championship
Tuesday, March 8
9:00 PM on ESPN2
 
Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Site: New Orleans
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 10
G1: #5 Georgia Southern (14-16) vs. #8 South Alabama (13-18)
G2: #6 Georgia St. (16-13) vs. #7 Texas St. (14-15)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3: #4 UL-Lafayette (16-13) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #3 UT-Arlington (22-9) vs. G2 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
#1 UALR (27-4) vs. G3 Winner
#2 UL-Monroe (19-12) vs. G4 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
1:00 PM on ESPN2
 
 
Western Athletic Conference Tournament
Site: Las Vegas
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G1: #4 Utah Valley (12-17) vs. #5 Missouri-KC (11-18)
G2: #2 Cal St. Bakersfield (21-8) vs. #7 Chicago St. (4-27)
G3: #3 Seattle (13-15) vs. #6 UT-Rio Grande Valley (8-21)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
#1 New Mexico St. (22-9) vs. G1 Winner
G2 Winner vs. G3 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
11:00 PM on ESPNU

 

In case you missed it, here are how the concluded tournaments finished.

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Score
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds  
Quarterfinal Round  
Tuesday, March 1  
G1: #8 USC-Upstate (10-21) @ #1 North Florida (21-10) 69-92
G2: #5 Kennesaw St. (11-19) @ #4 Florida Gulf Coast (17-13) 64-74
G3: #7 Stetson (10-21) @ #2 NJIT (17-13) 82-67
G4: #6 Lipscomb (11-20) @ #3 Jacksonville (16-15) 92-89
   
Semifinal Round  
Thursday, March 3  
#4 Florida Gulf Coast (18-13) @ #1 North Florida (22-10) 89-56
#7 Stetson (11-21) @ #6 Lipscomb (12-20) 96-75
   
Championship  
Sunday, March 6 12:30 PM on ESPN2  
#7 Stetson (12-21) @ #4 Florida Gulf Coast (19-13) 78-80
   
   
Big South Conference Tournament  
Site: Buies Creek, NC (Campbell)  
   
1st Round  
Thursday, March 3  
G1: #8 Longwood (9-22) vs. #9 Charleston Southern (9-20) 75-69
G2: #7 Radford (16-14) vs. #10 Presbyterian (10-19) 64-65
G3: #6 Gardner-Webb (15-15) vs. #11 Campbell (12-17) 79-69
   
Quarterfinal Round  
Friday, March 4  
G4: #1 High Point (20-9) vs. #8 Longwood (10-22) 89-78
G5: #4 UNC-Asheville (19-11) vs. #5 Liberty (13-18) 80-49
G6: #2 Winthrop (21-8) vs. #10 Presbyterian (11-19) 67-53
G7: #3 Coastal Carolina (18-10) vs. #6 Gardner-Webb (16-15) 65-69
   
Semifinal Round  
Saturday, March 5  
#1 High Point (21-9) vs. #4 UNC-Asheville (20-11) 69-80
#2 Winthrop (22-8) vs. #6 Gardner-Webb (17-15) 82-69
   
Championship  
Sunday, March 6  
#2 Winthrop (23-8) vs. #4 UNC-Asheville (21-11) 68-77
   
   
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament  
Site: St. Louis  
   
1st Round  
Thursday, March 3  
G1: #8 Loyola (Chi.) (14-16) vs. #9 Bradley (5-26) 74-66
G2: #7 MIssouri St. (12-18) vs. #10 Drake (7-23) 69-67
   
Quarterfinal Round  
Friday, March 4  
G3: #1 Wichita St. (23-7) vs. #8 Loyola (Chi.) (15-16) 66-58
G4: #4 Northern Iowa (19-12) vs. #5 Southern Illinois (22-9) 66-60
G5: #2 Evansville (23-8) vs. #7 Missouri St. (13-18) 66-56
G6: #3 Illinois St. (18-13) vs. #6 Indiana St. (14-16) 57-65
   
Semifinal Round  
Saturday, March 5  
#1 Wichita St. (24-7) vs. #4 Northern Iowa (20-12) 52-57
#2 Evansville (24-8) vs. #6 Indiana St. (15-16) 68-42
   
Championship Game  
Sunday, March 6  
#2 Evansville (25-8) vs. #4 Northern Iowa (21-12) 54-56
   
   
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament  
Site: Nashville  
   
1st Round  
Wednesday, March 2  
G1: #5 Tennessee Tech (19-10) vs. #8 Austin Peay (14-17) 72-92
G2: #6 Murray St. (16-13) vs. #7 Eastern Illinois (13-16) 78-62
   
Quarterfinal Round  
Thursday, March 3  
G3: #4 Tennessee St. (20-9) vs. #8 Austin Peay (15-17) 72-74
G4: #3 Morehead St. (18-11) vs. #6 Murray St. (17-13) 75-66
   
Semifinal Round  
Friday, March 4  
G5: #1 Belmont (20-10) vs. #8 Austin Peay (16-17) 96-97
G6: #2 UT-Martin (18-13) vs. #3 Morehead St. (19-11) 83-70
   
Championship  
Saturday, March 5 6:00 PM on ESPN2  
#2 UT-Martin (19-13) vs. #8 Austin Peay (17-17) 73-83

 

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Report

Our 32 expert bracketologists are now starting to agree on about 66 teams, and the bubble has shrunk to a small pop.  So far, one bubble has burst from among the at-large pool, as our gurus say that Wichita State will still get into the NCAA Tournament after losing the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament in a semifinal round game against eventual champion Northern Iowa.

 

The Metro Atlantic Championship Game and West Coast Conference semifinals should be quite interesting tonight.  If Monmouth loses in the MAAC, that will most likely pop another bubble, because the Hawks have a resume strong enough to receive an at-large bid.  St. Mary’s in the WCC might lose out if they lose a third time to Pepperdine, but if the Gaels win tonight and then lose to either Gonzaga or BYU in the WCC Championship Game, then they could also receive an at-large bid.

 

As the big power conferences prepare to start their tournaments in the next couple of days, there are a handful of teams that could fall out of the at-large picture if they suffer quick exits.  Among these teams are: Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Temple, Cincinnati, St. Joseph’s, Pittsburgh, and Tulsa.

 

There are teams that can still get into the at-large picture if they make runs to the Championship Game of their tournament but come up a bit short.  These include: Virginia Commonwealth, Florida, Michigan, Ohio State, and George Washington.

 

Here is the current bracketology, updated this morning.

Seed Team Auto.
1 Virginia  
1 Kansas  
1 Villanova  
1 North Carolina  
2 Oklahoma  
2 Oregon  
2 Michigan St.  
2 Xavier  
3 West Virginia  
3 Miami (Fla.)  
3 Utah  
3 Maryland  
4 Indiana  
4 Kentucky  
4 Duke  
4 Texas A&M  
5 Purdue  
5 Arizona  
5 Iowa St.  
5 Iowa  
6 California  
6 Texas  
6 Baylor  
6 Dayton  
7 Notre Dame  
7 Texas Tech  
7 Seton Hall  
7 Wisconsin  
8 Providence  
8 Butler  
8 Colorado  
8 USC  
9 Connecticut  
9 Oregon St.  
9 South Carolina  
9 Pittsburgh  
10 Syracuse  
10 Vanderbilt  
10 Wichita St.  
10 San Diego St.  
11 St. Mary’s  
11 Temple  
11 Valparaiso  
11 St. Bonaventure  
11 Cincinnati  
12 Monmouth  
12 UALR  
12 Yale IVY
12 St. Joseph’s  
12 Tulsa  
13 Akron  
13 Northern Iowa MVC
13 Hofstra  
13 South Dakota St.  
14 Chattanooga  
14 Stony Brook  
14 UAB  
14 Stephen F. Austin  
15 Hawaii  
15 UNC-Asheville Big South
15 New Mexico St.  
15 Weber State  
16 Florida Gulf Coast A-Sun
16 Hampton  
16 Wagner  
16 Austin Peay OVC
16 Lehigh  
16 Texas Southern  

 

 

 

 

February 29, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite–February 29, 2016

The finish line is in sight.  Championship Week I is here.  Conference tournament action tips off Tuesday night and by Friday night, 10 Conference Tournaments will be underway.

Let’s take a look at our weekly Bracketology composite first.  At this point in the season, we have shrunk “The Bubble” down to just the last 12 teams in and the first four teams out.  Once teams start pulling off upsets in conference tournament action, there will be fewer spots here as we must pop a Bubble for each automatic bid awarded to a team not currently under consideration.

This does not apply to the low and mid-major conferences other than maybe the Missouri Valley Conference and maybe the West Coast Conference.  If a team pulls off a monumental upset in, say, the Big Sky Conference Tournament, such as Idaho State upsetting Weber State, there will still be just one Big Sky team in the Dance.  However, if Mississippi State were to win the SEC Tournament, the Bulldogs would pop a bubble for some other major conference team, like Butler.

The 32 Bracket Einstein’s see it this way this week:

Seed Team Auto. Bid
1 Virginia ACC
1 Kansas Big 12
1 Villanova Big East
1 Xavier at-large
2 Michigan St. Big Ten
2 Oklahoma at-large
2 North Carolina at-large
2 Miami (Fla.) at-large
3 Oregon Pac-12
3 West Virginia at-large
3 Utah at-large
3 Maryland at-large
4 Duke at-large
4 Kentucky SEC
4 Iowa at-large
4 Indiana at-large
5 Iowa St. at-large
5 Texas at-large
5 Purdue at-large
5 Texas A&M at-large
6 California at-large
6 Baylor at-large
6 Wisconsin at-large
6 Arizona at-large
7 Seton Hall at-large
7 St. Joseph’s Atlantic 10
7 Notre Dame at-large
7 Dayton at-large
8 Texas Tech at-large
8 Colorado at-large
8 Pittsburgh at-large
8 Wichita St. MVC
9 South Carolina at-large
9 Providence at-large
9 Vanderbilt at-large
9 Cincinnati American
10 Oregon St. at-large
10 Syracuse at-large
10 Connecticut at-large
10 St. Mary’s WCC
11 USC at-large
11 VCU at-large
11 Valparaiso Horizon
11 UALR SunBelt
12 Michigan at-large
12 Florida at-large
12 Temple at-large
12 Butler at-large
12 San Diego St. MWC
12 Monmouth MAAC
13 Akron MAC
13 Hofstra Colonial
13 Yale Ivy
13 Chattanooga Southern
14 Stony Brook AmEast
14 Hawaii Big West
14 UAB CUSA
14 South Dakota St. Summit
15 Stephen F. Austin SLC
15 Belmont OVC
15 New Mexico St. WAC
15 Weber St. Big Sky
16 Winthrop Big South
16 North Florida A-Sun
16 Hampton MEAC
16 Wagner Northeast
16 Bucknell Patriot
16 Texas Southern SWAC
Last 4 Byes
VCU
USC
Connecticut
Syracuse
 
Last 4 In
Butler
Temple
Florida
Michigan
 
1st 4 Out
Alabama
Tulsa
St. Bonaventure
George Wash.

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning This Week

American East Conference Tournament
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds
Quarterfinal Round
Wednesday, March 2
#8 UMBC (7-24) @ #1 Stony Brook (23-6)
#7 Hartford (9-22) @ #2 Albany (24-7)
#6 Maine (8-21) @ #3 Vermont (19-12)
#5 Binghamton (8-21) @ #4 New Hampshire (18-11)
Semifinal Round
Monday, March 7
Lowest Remaining Seed @ Highest Remaining Seed
2nd Lowest Remaining Seed @ 2nd Highest Remaining Seed
Championship
Saturday, March 12
11:00 AM EST on ESPN2

Albany has won four straight games and 9 of 10, but Vermont has won 5 games in a row, including a 14-point shocker at Stony Brook.

Albany went 14-0 at home and is guaranteed at least 2 home games if they keep winning.  Stony Brook went 12-1 at home.

Vermont has the best shooting team in the league, while Stony Brook has the best defense.

 

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds
Quarterfinal Round
Tuesday, March 1
G1: #8 USC-Upstate (10-21) @ #1 North Florida (21-10)
G2: #5 Kennesaw St. (11-19) @ #4 Florida Gulf Coast (17-13)
G3: #7 Stetson (10-21) @ #2 NJIT (17-13)
G4: #6 Lipscomb (11-20) @ #3 Jacksonville (16-15)
Semifinal Round
Thursday, March 3
G1 winner vs. G2 winner at higher seed
G3 winner vs. G4 winner at higher seed
Championship
Sunday, March 6
12:30 PM on ESPN2

North Florida won its final three games to earn the top seed.  The Ospreys own a 13-1 home record and have the best offense and shooting in the league by a large margin.

Jacksonville lost its last two games of the regular season when the Dolphins had a chance to earn the top seed.

Florida Gulf Coast and NJIT have the top defenses in the league, with FGCU being best against opponent shooting accuracy, and NJIT being the best at forcing turnovers.

Note: Stetson is ineligible for the postseason, but the Hatters will play in the conference tournament.  Should they win, then regular season champion North Florida will receive the automatic bid.

 

Big South Conference Tournament
Site: Buies Creek, NC (Campbell)
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 3
G1: #8 Longwood (9-22) vs. #9 Charleston Southern (9-20)
G2: #7 Radford (16-14) vs. #10 Presbyterian (10-19)
G3: #6 Gardner-Webb (15-15) vs. #11 Campbell (12-17)
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 4
G4: #1 High Poiint (20-9) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #4 UNC-Asheville (19-11) vs. #5 Liberty (13-18)
G6: #2 Winthrop (21-8) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #3 Coastal Carolina (18-10) vs. G3 Winner
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G4 Winner vs. G5 Winner
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
Championship
Sunday, March 6
2:30 PM on ESPN2

High Point ended the season on a 6-game winning streak, while Winthrop went 8-2 in their last 10 games.  Former league leader UNC-Asheville faltered down the stretch, finishing 2-3 to drop to fourth place.

High Point won games down the stretch by not committing turnovers, shooting intelligent shots, and forcing turnovers on their opposition.

Coastal Carolina was the clear-cut leader in total defense during the season, while Radford is the league’s top rebounding team with nobody challenging in this department.

 

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Site: Baltimore
 
1st Round
Friday, March 4
G1: #8 Elon (16-15) vs. #9 Drexel (5-24)
G2: #7 Charleston (16-13) vs. #10 Delaware (7-22)
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G3: #1 Hofstra (22-8) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 James Madison (21-10) vs. #5 William & Mary (19-10)
G5: #2 UNC-Wilmington (22-7) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Towson (20-11) vs. #6 Northeastern (17-14)
Semifinal Round
Sunday, March 6
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
Championship
Monday, March 7
7:00 PM on NBC Sports Network

Hofstra could have been renamed Hotstra down the stretch, as they won their last six games to take the top seed in the conference tournament.  They have an incredible inside-outside tandem in guard Juan’ya Green (17.7 ppg, 7.2 apg) and forward Rokas Gustys (12.7 rebounds/game).

UNC-Wilmington won games by committing fewer turnovers than average and forcing a lot more turnovers than average and then capitalizing with fast break points.

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Site: Albany (Siena)
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 3
G1: #8 Rider (12-19) vs. #9 Quinnipiac (9-20)
G2: #7 Canisius (13-18) vs. #10 Niagara (7-24)
G3: #6 Manhattan (12-17) vs. #11 Marist (7-22)
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 4
G4: #1 Monmouth (25-6) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #4 Saint Peter’s (14-15) vs. #5 Fairfield (18-12)
Saturday, March 5
G6: #2 Iona (19-10) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #3 Siena (20-11) vs. G3 Winner
Semifinal Round
Sunday, March 6
G4 Winner vs. G5 Winner
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
Championship Round
Monday, March 7
7:00 PM on ESPN

Monmouth is in that gray area, where if the Hawks lose in the Championship Round, they will have a legitimate case to make for an at-large bid thanks to a difficult non-conference schedule that included some impressive wins.  Monmouth hit a little blip earlier in the month, but they righted the ship with three closing victories.

Iona is the hot team entering tournament play.  The Gaels won their last five games, including one over Monmouth.

Siena is the host team, and the Saints went 12-2 at home this year.  However, the two losses came to Monmouth and Iona.

The top three seeds have some stars that you will want to watch and thus follow this tournament.  Monmouth has guard Justin Robinson, who scores better than 20 points per game and is like a Willie Mays of basketball.  He can drill the three, take it to the hoop, dish for lots of assists, pick your pockets clean, and then ice the game at the foul line.

Iona’s A.J. English tops Robinson in scoring at 22.3 per game and assists at 6.1 per game and is the league’s best NBA prospect.  Siena’s power forward Brett Bisping is dominant inside, where he averages 15.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Site: St. Louis
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 3
G1: #8 Loyola (Chi.) (14-16) vs. #9 Bradley (5-26)
G2: #7 MIssouri St. (12-18) vs. #10 Drake (7-23)
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 4
G3: #1 Wichita St. (23-7) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 Northern Iowa (19-12) vs. #5 Southern Illinois (22-9)
G5: #2 Evansville (23-8) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Illinois St. (18-13) vs. #6 Indiana St. (14-16)
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
Championship Game
Sunday, March 6
2:00 PM on CBS

Arch Madness promises to be exciting this year.  Don’t automatically give this tournament to Wichita State, although the Shockers are definitely the favorites.  They will face a very difficult semifinal match if Northern Iowa advances past the quarterfinal round against Southern Illinois.

In Wichita’s favor, they ended the season by winning their last five games and 18 of 20 after they were 100% healthy.  After being upset at home by UNI, the Shockers won their last five by an average of 26.4 points per game.  In Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, they have the best backcourt in all of mid-Major basketball and almost the equal of Kentucky’s fine duo.

Why is UNI a threat to this resume?  To start, they beat North Carolina and Iowa State earlier this year.  To continue, they finished the season winning nine of their final ten, including stopping Wichita’s multi-year home winning streak.  To conclude, the Panthers play patiently, don’t make many mistakes, do not foul much, and in late games, they are tough in the clutch, shooting close to 80% at the foul line.

Keep an eye on Evansville, as the Purple Aces shoot the ball better than any MVC team and are second to Wichita in field goal defense.  The Aces have their own dynamic duo in D.J. Balentine (20.7 ppg, 4.4 apg) and Egidijus Mockevicius (16.6 ppg, 14.0 reb, 2.8 blk).

Northeast Conference
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds
 
Quarterfinal Round
Wednesday, March 2
G1: #8 Robert Morris (10-21) @ #1 Wagner (20-9)
G2: #5 Mount St. Mary’s (13-18) @ #4 St. Francis (Bklyn) (15-16)
G3: #7 St. Francis (Pa.) (13-16) @ #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (15-14)
G4: #6 Long Island (15-14) @ #3 Sacred Heart (12-17)
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G1 Winner vs. G2 Winner @ Higher Seed
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner @ Higher Seed
Championship
Tuesday, March 8
7:00 PM on ESPN or ESPN2

This league probably will send its champion to Dayton for a First Four game as a 16-seed waiting to take on a Virginia, Kansas, or Villanova if they win in Dayton.

Wagner finished 8-2 to run away with the regular season championship, as multiple teams could not hold onto close leads in key games.  In league play, the Seahawks forced opponents into bad shots and then controlled the boards to limit them to one shot on most possessions.

St. Francis of Brooklyn is the other hot team entering the tournament, coming in with a four-game streak.  The Terriers are the second best defensive team in the league, but they lack offensive stars.

Sacred Heart has the dominant offensive player in the league.  Cane Broome leads the loop with a 23-point average.

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Site: Nashville
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 2
G1: #5 Tennessee Tech (19-10) vs. #8 Austin Peay (14-17)
G2: #6 Murray St. (16-13) vs. #7 Eastern Illinois (13-16)
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 3
G3: #4 Tennessee St. (20-9) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #3 Morehead St. (18-11) G2 Winner
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 4
G5: #1 Belmont (20-10) vs. G3 Winner
G6: #2 UT-Martin (18-13) vs. G4 Winner
Championship
Saturday, March 5
6:00 PM on ESPN2

The top two seeds get byes to the semifinals, and that could be just what Belmont needs the most.  The Bruins limped home to a 4-4 finish to just barely escape with the regular season title, but they look more like the third or fourth best team in the tournament today.

Look out for Morehead State.  We began isolating on the Eagles a few weeks ago, when Coach Sean Woods had this team looking somewhat like the Kentucky teams he played on when he was in college.  Morehead State won their final six games, and more impressively half of those wins came against Belmont, Tennessee State, and on the road at Tennessee Tech, where the Golden Eagles lost just that one time.

In tournament play, a team that can consistently shut an opponent down for four or five minute stretches and enjoy scoring runs, is going to advance, and the Eagles get to start as the #3 seed.  Their road to the championship avoids both Tennessee State and Belmont until the finals, and they get a weaker #2 seed in UT-Martin, who won the West Division with a weaker conference record than the Eagles, who played in the much tougher East Division.

Tennessee State is the other hot team entering conference tournament play.  The Tigers pasted Belmont yesterday and will have to beat the Bruins again in the semifinals to get to the Championship Game.

Tennessee Tech is a monster at home and mouse on the road.  The Golden Eagles will have to win 4 times in 4 days to get to the Dance, and we do not see it possible.

 

Southern Conference
Site: Asheville, NC
 
1st Round
Friday, March 4
G1: #8 or 9 Samford (13-18) vs. #9 or 8 VMI (9-19) *
G2: #7 Mercer (18-13) vs. #10 Citadel (10-21)
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G3: #1 Chattanooga (25-5) * vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 Wofford (15-16) vs. #5 Western Carolina (15-16)
G5: #2 East Tennessee (21-10) VS. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Furman (17-14) vs. #6 UNC-Greensboro (14-17)
Semifinal Round
Sunday, March 6
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
Championship
Monday, March 7
9:00 PM on ESPN2

This tournament should be quite interesting.  Chattanooga dominated the league until the final weeks when the Mocs began to show signs of fatigue, which could be expected after losing their star guard Casey Jones earlier in the season.  Still, Chattanooga is the slight favorite to take three games and represent the SoCon in the NCAA Tournament.  The Mocs shoot competently, defend capably, and force a lot of turnovers on the enemy.

East Tennessee is hot as conference tournament action commences.  The Bucs won their final five games.  Guards Ge’Lawn Guyn and T.J. Cromer paced the team, combining for 33.2 points per game.

UNC-Greensboro is the dark horse team that is hard to figure out.  The Spartans lost four of five games including a terrible double-digit defeat to a weak VMI team.  Then, UNCG won their last five games including a blowout of Chattanooga in Choo-Choo town.  In those final 5 contests, the Spartans shot over 50% from the field and 40% from behind the arc, while holding opponents to less than 35% from the field and 27% from behind the arc.

Note: Chattanooga plays VMI tonight in a game that will not affect the pairings in the conference tournament.  The Mocs will be #1, and VMI will finish either 8th or 9th, meaning the Keydets will play Samford no matter what.  The only difference is which color jersey they wear in that game.

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Site: Las Vegas
 
1st Round
Friday, March 4
G1: #8 Loyola Marymount (13-16) vs. #9 San Diego (9-20)
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G2: #3 BYU (22-9) vs. #6 Santa Clara (11-19)
G3: #4 Pepperdine (17-12) vs. #5 San Francisco (15-14)
G4: #1 Saint Mary’s (24-4) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #2 Gonzaga (23-7) vs. #7 Portland (12-19)
Semifinal Round
Monday, March 7
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G2 Winner vs. G5 Winner
Championship
Tuesday, March 8
9:00 PM on ESPN

It’s not a gamble to say that Las Vegas is the place to be for the next fortnight if you are a college basketball junkie.  Four leagues will play their tournament in the desert oasis.  The WCC promises to be interesting this year, because it looks like only the tournament champion will be wearing dancing shoes.

Saint Mary’s deserves an at-large bid if they make it to the finals and lose, but it is not a guarantee, especially if some of the power conferences have upset victors.  The Gaels did not play a tough enough non-conference slate to merit a lot of at-large consideration.

Gonzaga played a difficult enough non-conference schedule, but the Bulldogs couldn’t beat anybody, as Washington was their best win, but the Huskies keep losing down the stretch to make that win more and more meaningless.

BYU cannot be discounted in this tournament.  The Cougars are a decent shooting team, decent defensive team, decent rebounding team, and decent at forcing turnovers and not committing a lot of them.  They just aren’t outstanding at anything, but it only takes one or two players to play his best ball of the season, and the Cougars could shock the two league powers.  With Chase Fischer, Nick Emery, and Kyle Collinsworth on the floor, BYU could light it up for three days and steal the bid.

 

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