The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 11, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, January 11, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:32 am

Friday, January 11, 2019

Seed List

Seed Team League
1 Virginia ACC
1 Duke ACC
1 Michigan Big Ten
1 Texas Tech Big 12
2 Tennessee SEC
2 Gonzaga WCC
2 Michigan St. Big Ten
2 North Carolina ACC
3 Houston AAC
3 Virginia Tech ACC
3 Kansas Big 12
3 Kentucky SEC
4 Buffalo MAC
4 Nebraska Big Ten
4 Oklahoma Big 12
4 Wisconsin Big Ten
5 NC State ACC
5 Indiana Big Ten
5 Iowa St. Big 12
5 Marquette Big East
6 Florida St. ACC
6 Auburn SEC
6 LSU SEC
6 Maryland Big Ten
7 Purdue Big Ten
7 St. John’s (NY) Big East
7 Nevada MWC
7 Ole Miss SEC
8 Villanova Big East
8 Mississippi St. SEC
8 UCF AAC
8 Louisville ACC
9 Wofford SoCon
9 TCU Big 12
9 Iowa Big Ten
9 Ohio St. Big Ten
10 Cincinnati AAC
10 San Francisco WCC
10 Florida SEC
10 North Texas C-USA
11 Liberty ASUN
11 Washington Pac-12
11 Seton Hall Big East
12 Syracuse ACC
12 Utah St. MWC
12 Butler Big East
12 Texas Big 12
12 VCU Atlantic 10
12 Creighton Big East
12 Kansas St. Big 12
13 Murray St. OVC
13 Hofstra CAA
13 Yale Ivy League
13 Vermont America East
14 Texas St. Sun Belt
14 Radford Big South
14 New Mexico St. WAC
14 Loyola Chicago MVC
15 Northern Ky. Horizon
15 UC Irvine Big West
15 South Dakota St. Summit 
15 Lehigh Patriot
16 Montana Big Sky
16 Abilene Christian Southland
16 Rider MAAC
16 Texas Southern SWAC
16 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC
16 N.C. A&T MEAC

 

Last Four In

Butler
Texas
Creighton
Kansas St.

 

Last 4 Byes

Florida
Temple
Seton Hall
Syracuse

 

First 4 Out

Alabama
Minnesota
Arizona
Clemson

 

Next 4 Out

Northwestern
Fresno St.
Saint Louis
Arizona St.

 

Games in Dayton

Butler vs. Kansas St.

Texas vs. Creighton

Rider vs. North Carolina A&T

Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

Changes to PiRate Ratings Bracketology

The former Bracket Gurus have been inconsistent in submitting their bracketology to us, and most of them say they are too busy to send us their reports every week.  Thus, beginning today, what you see is the PiRate Ratings’ own bracketology based on the information we have that says exactly what the NCAA Selection Committee must use as its resources in determining the teams and seeds.  Thus, this is how the PiRate Ratings would vote if the tournament started today.

Now that the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology is in-house, we will be able to update these seeds more than once per week.

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January 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, January 7, 2019

1/7/2019

Seed Team Conf. Avg.
1 Duke ACC 1.00
1 Michigan BTEN 1.11
1 Virginia ACC 1.22
1 Michigan St. BTEN 1.33
2 Tennessee SEC 1.56
2 Kansas B12 1.89
2 Gonzaga WCC 2.00
2 Texas Tech B12 2.56
3 North Carolina ACC 3.22
3 Oklahoma B12 3.44
3 Virginia Tech ACC 3.44
3 Auburn SEC 3.78
4 Mississippi St. SEC 3.89
4 Nevada MWC 4.11
4 Florida St. ACC 4.11
4 Houston AAC 4.67
5 North Carolina St. ACC 4.89
5 Ohio St. BTEN 5.22
5 Kentucky SEC 5.22
5 Wisconsin BTEN 5.67
6 Marquette BE 6.11
6 Indiana BTEN 6.22
6 Buffalo MAC 6.33
6 Iowa St. B12 6.56
7 St. John’s BE 6.78
7 Nebraska BTEN 6.89
7 TCU B12 7.00
7 Villanova BE 7.44
8 Minnesota BTEN 8.00
8 Cincinnati AAC 8.11
8 Iowa BTEN 8.33
8 Purdue BTEN 8.56
9 Louisville ACC 8.67
9 LSU SEC 8.89
9 Maryland BTEN 9.00
9 Seton Hall BE 9.56
10 UCF AAC 10.33
10 Alabama SEC 10.56
10 Arizona St. P12 11.11
10 Syracuse ACC 11.22
11 VCU A10 11.33
11 UNC-Greensboro SOU 11.56
11 Ole Miss SEC 11.78
11 Texas B12 12.22
12 Murray St. OVC 12.22
12 Temple AAC 12.56
12 North Texas CUSA 12.56
12 Creighton BE 12.89
12 Clemson ACC 13.22
12 San Francisco WCC 16.22
13 Lipscomb ASUN 12.22
13 Georgia St. SBC 13.22
13 Yale IVY 13.22
13 Hofstra CAA 13.33
14 CSU Bakersfield WAC 13.56
14 UC Irvine BW 13.89
14 Loyola-Chi MVC 13.89
14 Vermont AE 14.00
15 Radford BSTH 14.56
15 Northern Colorado BSKY 14.67
15 Lehigh PAT 15.44
15 Purdue Fort Wayne SUM 15.44
16 Northern Kentucky HOR 15.56
16 Stephen F. Austin SLND 15.67
16 Texas Southern SWAC 15.89
16 Rider MAAC 15.89
16 Robert Morris NEC 16.00
16 North Carolina A&T MEAC 16.00

 

Top 4 Out
69 Butler BE 15.33
70 Florida SEC 17.78
71 Northwestern BTEN 18.22
72 Fresno St. MWC 18.22
Next 4 Out
73 St. Louis A10 18.44
74 Kansas St. B12 18.89
75 Arizona P12 19.11
76 Washington P12 19.22

 

Last 4 Byes
10 Alabama SEC 10.56
10 Syracuse ACC 11.22
11 Ole Miss SEC 11.78
11 Texas B12 12.22
Last 4 In — Headed To Dayton
12 Temple AAC 12.56
12 Creighton BE 12.89
12 Clemson ACC 13.22
12 San Francisco WCC 16.22
16 Seeds Headed To Dayton
16 Texas Southern SWAC 15.89
16 Rider MAAC 15.89
16 Robert Morris NEC 16.00
16 North Carolina A&T MEAC 16.00

 

Explanation of Average Scores

The PiRate Ratings Bracketology Ratings consist of 14 contributors to this website.  Each week, the contributors send us their bracketology ratings, which we then compile into a composite average.  At least, that is how it is supposed to work.  In actuality, this week only 8 of the 14 sent us their ratings, and then we included our own as number 9.  So, this week the average comes from 9 bracketologists.

You will note that the lower the average the better the ranking, as a #1 seed is definitely better than a #2 seed and so on.

You will also note that after #12 seed San Francisco, the average number decreases with #13 Lipscomb.  The reason for this is starting with Lipscomb, the remainder of the list are automatic qualifiers.  We first calculate the number of one-bid leagues, and then we fill in the number of at-large teams needed to fill the 68-team field.  Even the last team in the Big Dance will be seeded higher than most of the one-bid league automatic qualifiers, thus San Francisco is seeded at the lowest possible spot for an at-large team.  Lipscomb is the highest-seeded team of the remaining one-bid automatic qualifying leagues, but not the highest-seeded of all the one-bid automatic qualifying leagues, because Nevada, Buffalo, Arizona State, Virginia Commonwealth, and North Texas are seeded higher than some of the at-large qualifiers.

Bids By Conference

Conference #
Big Ten 10
ACC 9
SEC 7
Big 12 6
Big East 5
American 4
West Coast 2
Pac-12 1
Atlantic 10 1
America East 1
Atlantic Sun 1
Big Sky 1
Big South 1
Big West 1
Colonial 1
Conference USA 1
Horizon 1
Ivy 1
MAAC 1
MAC 1
MEAC 1
Missouri Valley 1
Mountain West 1
Northeast 1
Ohio Valley 1
Patriot 1
Sun Belt 1
Southland 1
Southern 1
Summit 1
SWAC 1
WAC 1

The Pac-12 and The Atlantic 10 should eventually get a second team into consideration, as these are aberrations.  Arizona, Washington, and Oregon could work their way into the field from the Pac-12, and St. Louis is on the Bubble from the A-10.

 

 

 

 

March 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for March 5, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:32 am

The Bracket Gurus are doing double duty this week having to keep up with the conference tournaments every day as well as the bracketology.

The Gurus are starting to come to a consensus, as there were only 72 teams that received votes this week, meaning we only have a Top 4 out and not Next 4, since our geniuses feel there are no other teams that as of now have any shot at receiving an at-large invitation.

Consider this: as of today, there have been no teams that have gone from out to in based on their showing in their conference tournaments.  Nebraska failed to show up in the Big Ten Conference Tournament, while Penn State fell one round short of mattering.

Of course, except for the Big Ten Conference, all the power leagues that could possibly produce a team that might win enough to move into consideration have yet to begin conference tournament play.  There are a few teams remaining that still have remote at-large life.  These are:

ACC: Syracuse and Louisville

Big East: Marquette

Big 12: Oklahoma St.

Mountain West: Boise St.

Pac-12: Utah and Washington

SEC: LSU, Georgia, and Mississippi St.

There is the opposite to this discussion.  There are a host of teams that if they lose on the first day or even second day of their tournament, they could fall from in to out.  Another factor that could push these teams out is if upset winners claim automatic bids.  These are the teams that are hanging on by a thread at the current time.

Big 12: Baylor, Kansas St., and Texas

Big East: Providence

Pac-12: USC, Arizona St., and UCLA

SEC: Alabama

West Coast: Saint Mary’s

Which dark horse teams could make a run to an upset championship in each power conference?  (Does not include teams currently on the Bubble)

American: Tulsa

Atlantic 10: Davidson

ACC: Notre Dame

Big 12: None, because all that’s left is Iowa St. and we do not see the Cyclones winning.

Big East: St. John’s

Pac-12: Stanford

SEC: South Carolina

West Coast: BYU

Here are the seeds as our Bracket Gurus predict.  Teams in RED have clinched an automatic bid.

Seed Team Conference
1 Virginia ACC
1 Villanova B-EAST
1 Xavier B-EAST
1 Kansas B12
2 Duke ACC
2 Purdue B-TEN
2 Michigan St. B-TEN
2 Auburn SEC
3 North Carolina ACC
3 Cincinnati AAC
3 Tennessee SEC
3 Texas Tech B12
4 Wichita St. AAC
4 Michigan B-TEN
4 West Virginia B12
4 Arizona PAC-12
5 Clemson ACC
5 Gonzaga WCC
5 Ohio St. B-TEN
5 Kentucky SEC
6 Florida SEC
6 Houston AAC
6 Texas A&M SEC
6 TCU B12
7 Miami (Fla.) ACC
7 Arkansas SEC
7 Seton Hall B-EAST
7 Nevada MWC
8 Rhode Island A-10
8 Virginia Tech ACC
8 Missouri SEC
8 Oklahoma B12
9 Creighton B-EAST
9 Florida St. ACC
9 North Carolina St. ACC
9 Butler B-EAST
10 St. Bonaventure A-10
10 UCLA PAC-12
10 Middle Tennessee CUSA
10 Texas B12
11 Arizona St. PAC-12
11 Saint Mary’s WCC
11 Providence B-EAST
11 USC PAC-12
11 Alabama SEC
12 New Mexico St. WAC
12 Buffalo MAC
12 Murray St. OVC
12 Kansas St. B12
12 Baylor B12
13 UL-Lafayette SBC
13 South Dakota St. SUMMIT
13 Vermont A-EAST
13 Charleston CAA
14 UNC-Greensboro SOCON
14 Bucknell PATRIOT
14 Loyola (Chi.) MVC
14 Montana B-SKY
15 UC Davis B-WEST
15 Wright St. HORIZON
15 Wagner NEC
15 Lipscomb A-SUN
16 Penn IVY
16 Iona MAAC
16 Radford B-SOUTH
16 Hampton MEAC
16 Nicholls St. SLC
16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff SWAC

The First Four in Dayton

USC vs. Baylor

Alabama vs. Kansas St.

Radford vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff

Hampton vs. Nicholls St.

 

Top 4 Out 

Marquette B-EAST
Syracuse ACC
Louisville ACC
Utah PAC-12

Multiple Bid Leagues

Conference #
ACC 8
Big 12 8
SEC 8
Big East 6
Big Ten 4
Pac-12 4
American 3
Atlantic 10 2
West Coast 2

There are currently 23, one-bid leagues.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 5, 2018

Today’s PiRate Rating Spreads for Conference Tournament Games 

Home Team Visitor  
or Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Charleston William & Mary 4.1
Northeastern UNC-Wilmington 9.6
Oakland Cleveland St. 8.4
Wright St. Milwaukee 4.0
Iona Fairfield 4.7
Central Michigan Bowling Green 7.6
Kent St. Northern Illinois 5.5
Miami (O) Ohio 2.7
Western Michigan Akron 7.8
North Carolina A&T Delaware St. 10.4
Norfolk St. Md. Eastern Shore 12.2
UNC-Greensboro East Tennessee St. -0.3
South Dakota St. North Dakota St. 6.4
South Dakota Denver 10.5
Gonzaga San Francisco 14.5
Saint Mary’s BYU 4.5

Yesterday’s Championship Games

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Lipscomb 108 Florida Gulf Coast 96
Big South Conference Tournament
Radford 55 Liberty 52
Big Ten Conference Tournament
Michigan 75 Purdue 66
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Loyola (Chi.) 65 Illinois St. 49

Teams Already In The Field

Team Conf. W-L
Murray St. OVC 26-5
Radford B-South 22-12
Loyola (Chi.) MVC 28-5
Lipscomb A-SUN 23-9
Michigan BTen 28-7

Conference Tournament Championship Games Today

All Times EST

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #4 Iona #6 Fairfield ESPN
Southern Conference Tournament
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM #1 UNC-Greensboro #2 East Tennessee St. ESPN2

 

Other Conference Tournaments In Action Today

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Charleston #4 William & Mary CBSSN
8:30 PM #2 Northeastern #6 UNC-Wilmington CBSSN
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Chas/W&M NE/UNCW CBSSN

 

Horizon League Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #4 Oakland #8 Cleveland St. ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Wright St. #6 Milwaukee ESPNU
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Oak/CSU WSU/Milw ESPN

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament
Cleveland (First Round at Higher Seeds)
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 5
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #8 Central Michigan #9 Bowling Green ESPN3
7:00 PM #5 Kent St. #12 Northern Illinois ESPN3
7:00 PM #7 Miami (O) #10 Ohio U ESPN3
7:45 PM #6 Western Michigan #11 Akron ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Buffalo CMU or BGU ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Ball St. Kent or NIU ESPN3
6:30 PM #2 Toledo Mia or Ohio ESPN3
9:00 PM #3 Eastern Michigan WMU or Akron ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM Buff/CMU/BGU Ball/Kent/NIU CBSSN
9:00 PM Tol/Mia/Ohio EMU/WMU/Akron CBSSN *
* This game will be available at cbssports.com
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Norfolk, VA
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 North Carolina A&T #13 Delaware St. ESPN3
9:00 PM #5 Norfolk St. #12 Md-Eastern Shore ESPN3
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM #8 Howard #9 Florida A&M ESPN3
6:30 PM #6 UNC-Central #11 Coppin St. ESPN3
9:00 PM #7 Morgan St. #10 South Carolina St. ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Hampton Howard or FAMU ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Bethune-Cookman MSU or SCSU ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #3 Savannah St. UNCC or Coppin ESPN3
8:00 PM NCAT or Dela St. Norf St or UMES ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Hampton/Howard/FAMU NCAT/DelSt/NorfSt/UMES ESPN3
8:00 PM BCU/MSU/SCSU Sav/UNCC/Coppin ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Summit League Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 South Dakota St. #5 North Dakota St. ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 South Dakota #3 Denver ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM SDSU/NDSU USD/Denver ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM #1 Gonzaga #4 San Francisco ESPN
11:00 PM #2 Saint Mary’s #3 BYU ESPN2
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM  Gonzaga/USF SMU/BYU  ESPN

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report Coming Later Today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 13, 2016

NCAA Men’s Basketball Conference Tournament Selection Sunday Update #1

The finish line is in site.  Our bracket geniuses have been working through the wee hours of the night, losing an hour of work time due to Daylight Savings Time, and breaking teams down to core parts.

 

As of this morning, with five games left to be played, the 32 Gurus agree on 64 of the 68 teams.  The Bubble has been reduced to 8 teams fighting for four slots.

 

We will release our final bracketology later this afternoon following the end of the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, where Memphis will force 32 Bracket Gurus to quickly re-adjust their brackets if the Tigers knock off Connecticut to earn an automatic bid.  Because our guys say UConn is already in the tournament, a Memphis win will bump one of the Bubble teams out of the dance.

 

Here is today’s schedule

Time Network Conference Team vs. Team
12:30 PM CBS Atlantic 10 VCU vs. St. Joe’s
1:00 PM ESPN-2 Sun Belt UALR vs. UL-Monroe
1:00 PM ESPN SEC Texas A&M vs. Kentucky
3:15 PM ESPN American Connecticut vs. Memphis
3:30 PM CBS Big Ten Michigan St. vs. Purdue

 

Here is The Bubble in order of best to worst.  Thus, for now, the top four are in the tournament and headed to Dayton, while the bottom four are your #1 seeds in the NIT.  As only the Memphis outcome can affect this Bubble, South Carolina and Michigan are the teams worried the most, because one of the two will be squeezed out if Memphis wins.  The bottom four can do nothing now to work their way into the field if our Gurus are on target.

  1. Wichita St.
  2. Saint Bonaventure
  3. Michigan
  4. South Carolina
  5. Saint Mary’s
  6. San Diego St.
  7. Syracuse
  8. Vanderbilt

The final predicted field will be released as soon as we can tabulate the 32 Gurus’ selections following the Memphis-Connecticut game.

 

 

March 7, 2016

NCAA Men’s Basketball Conference Tournament Update: 3/7/16

The appetizer has been served, and now it is time for the main courses to begin.  Five teams have punched tickets to the NCAA Tournament, and three more will receive automatic bids tonight.  A handful of conference tournaments start today as well.

 

These are the teams that have earned automatic bids to date.

Teams Earning Automatic Bids
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay (18-17)
Ivy League: Yale (22-6)
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast (20-13)
Big South: UNC-Asheville (22-11)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (22-12)

 

We have broken the action down into parts.  Let’s take a look first at the tournaments that will conclude tonight by crowning a champion.

 

Automatic Bids Awarded Today
Colonial Athletic: 7:00 PM on NBC Sports Network
#1 Hofstra (24-8) vs. #2 UNC-Wilmington (24-7)
 
Metro Atlantic: 7:00 PM on ESPN
#1 Monmouth (27-6) vs. #2 Iona (21-10)
 
Southern Conference: 9:00 PM on ESPN2
#1 Chattanooga (28-5) vs. #2 East Tennessee (23-10)

 

These are the tournaments that will continue to play non-championship rounds today.

Tournaments In Action Today
 
America East
Semifinal Round
#7 Hartford (10-22) @ #1 Stony Brook (24-6)
#4 New Hampshire (19-11) @ #3 Vermont (20-12)
 
Horizon League
Semifinal Round
#4 Green Bay (21-12) vs. #1 Valparaiso (26-5)
#3 Wright St. (21-12) vs. #2 Oakland (21-10)
 
Mid-American
1st Round
G1:#9 Toledo (17-14) at #8 Eastern Michigan (17-14)
G2: #12 Bowling Green (14-17) at #5 Kent St. (19-12)
G3: #10 Western Michigan (13-18) at #7 Northern Illinois (20-11)
G4: #11 Miami (O) (12-19) at #6 Ball St. (19-12)
 
Mid-eastern Athletic
1st Round
G1: #5 Savannah St. (14-14) vs. #12 Delaware St. (7-24)
G2: #6 North Carolina A&T (10-21) vs. #11 Coppin St. (8-21)
 
West Coast
Semifinal Round
#1 Saint Mary’s (25-4) vs. #4 Pepperdine (18-12)
#2 Gonzaga (24-7) vs. #3 BYU (23-9)

 

These are the brackets for the tournaments that will begin later this week.

American Athletic Conference Tournament
Site: Orlando
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 10
G1: #8 East Carolina (12-19) vs. #9 South Florida (7-24)
G2: #7 Central Florida (12-17) vs. #10 Tulane (10-21)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3: G1 Winner vs. #1 Temple (20-10)
G4: #4 Cincinnati (22-9) vs. #5 Connecticut (21-10)
G5: G2 Winner vs. #2 Houston (22-8)
G6: #3 Tulsa (20-10) vs. #6 Memphis (17-14)
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
3:15 PM on ESPN
 
 
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Sites: Washington, DC
1st Round
Tuesday, March 8
G1: #12 North Carolina St. (15-16) vs. #13 Wake Forest (11-19)
G2: #11 Florida St. (18-12) vs. #14 Boston College (7-24)
 
2nd Round
Wednesday, March 9
G3: #8 Pittsburgh (20-10) vs. #9 Syracuse (19-12)
G4: #5 Duke (22-9) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #7 Clemson (17-13) vs. #10 Georgia Tech (18-13)
G6: #6 Virginia Tech (18-13) vs. G2 Winner
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G7: #1 North Carolina (25-6) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #4 Notre Dame (20-10) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #2 Virginia (24-6) vs. G5 Winner
G10: #3 Miami (24-6) vs. G6 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner
G9 Winner vs. G10 Winner
 
Championship Round
Saturday, March 12
9:00 PM on ESPN
 
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Site: Brooklyn
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #12 George Mason (11-20) vs. #13 St. Louis (10-20)
G2: #11 Duquesne (16-15) vs. #14 LaSalle (8-21)
 
2nd Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #8 Fordham (17-12) vs. #9 Richmond (15-15)
G4: #5 George Washington (22-9) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #7 Rhode Island (17-14) vs. #10 U Mass (13-17)
G6: #6 Davidson (18-11) vs. G2 Winner
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G7: #1 Dayton (24-6) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #4 St. Joseph’s (24-7) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #2 VCU (22-9) vs. G5 Winner
G10: #3 St. Bonaventure (22-7) vs. G6 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner
G9 Winner vs. G10 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
12:30 PM on CBS
 
 
Big 12 Conference Tournament
Site: Kansas City
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #8 Kansas St. (16-15) vs. #9 Oklahoma St. (12-19)
G2: #7 Texas Tech (19-11) vs. #10 TCU (11-20)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #4 Texas (20-11) vs. #5 Baylor (21-10)
G4: #1 Kansas (27-4) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #2 West Virginia (24-7) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Oklahoma (24-6) vs. #6 Iowa St. (21-10)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
 
Championship Game
Saturday, March 12
6:00 PM on ESPN
 
 
Big East Conference Tournament
Site: New York
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #8 Georgetown (14-17) vs. #9 DePaul (9-21)
G2: #7 Marquette (19-12) vs. #10 St. John’s (8-23)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #1 Villanova (27-4) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 Providence (22-9) vs. #5 Butler (21-9)
G5: #2 Xavier (26-4) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Seton Hall (22-8) vs. #6 Creighton (18-13)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
 
Championship Round
Saturday, March 12
5:30 PM on Fox
 
 
Big Sky Conference Tournament
Site: Reno, NV
 
1st Round
Tuesday, March 8
G1: #8 Portland St. (12-17) vs. #9 Northern Colorado (10-20)
G2: #5 North Dakota (15-14) vs. #12 Southern Utah (5-23)
G3: #7 Montana St. (14-16) vs. #10 Sacramento St. (13-16)
G4: #6 Eastern Washington (16-14) vs. #11 Northern Arizona (5-24)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G5: #1 Weber St. (23-8) vs. G1 Winner
G6: #4 Idaho St. (16-14) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #2 Montana (19-10) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #3 Idaho (20-11) vs. G4 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
8:45 PM on ESPNU
 
 
Big Ten Conference Tournament
Site: Indianapolis
 
First Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #12 Illinois (13-18) vs. #13 Minnesota (8-22)
G2: #11 Nebraska (14-17) vs. #14 Rutgers (7-24)
 
Second Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #8 Michigan (20-11) vs. #9 Northwestern (20-11)
G4: #5 Iowa (21-9) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #7 Ohio St. (19-12) vs. #10 Penn St. (16-15)
G6: #6 Wisconsin (20-11) vs. G2 Winner
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G7: #1 Indiana (25-6) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #4 Purdue (24-7) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #2 Michigan St. (26-5) vs. G5 Winner
G10: #3 Maryland (24-7) vs. G6 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
G7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner
G9 Winner vs. G10 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
3:30 PM on CBS
 
 
Big West Conference Tournament
Site: Anaheim
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
#4 UCSB (17-12) vs. #5 UC Davis (10-18)
#1 Hawaii (24-5) vs. #8 Cal St. Fullerton (10-19)
#2 UC-Irvine (24-8) vs. #7 Cal Poly (10-19)
#3 Long Beach St. (18-13) vs. #6 UC Riverside (14-18)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
Highest Remaining Seed vs. Lowest Remaining Seed
2nd Highest Remaining Seed vs. 3rd Highest Remaining Seed
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
11:30 PM on ESPN2
 
 
Conference USA Tournament
Site: Birmingham
 
1st Round
Tuesday, March 8
G1: #12 Florida Atlantic (7-24) vs. #13 UTSA (5-26)
 
2nd Round
Wednesday, March 9
G2: #8 Western Kentucky (16-15) vs. #9 North Texas (12-19)
G3: #5 Old Dominion (19-12) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #7 Charlotte (13-18) vs. #10 Rice (12-19)
G5: #6 UTEP (18-13) vs. #11 Florida Int’l (13-18)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G6: #1 UAB (26-5) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #4 Louisiana Tech (23-8) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #2 Middle Tennessee (21-9) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #3 Marshall (16-15) vs. G5 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
2:30 PM on Fox Sports 1
 
 
Pac-12 Conference Tournament
Site: Las Vegas
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #8 Washington (17-13) vs. #9 Stanford (15-14)
G2: #5 Colorado (21-10) vs. #12 Washington St. (9-21)
G3: #7 USC (20-11) vs. #10 UCLA (15-16)
G4: #6 Oregon St. (18-11) vs. #11 Arizona St. (15-16)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G5: #1 Oregon (25-6) vs. G1 Winner
G6: #4 Arizona (24-7) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #2 Utah (24-7) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #3 California (22-9) vs. G4 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
10:15 PM on FS1
 
 
Southeastern Conference Tournament
Site: Nashville
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #12 Tennessee (13-18) vs. #13 Auburn (11-19)
 
2nd Round
Thursday, March 10
G2: #8 Florida (18-13) vs. #9 Arkansas (16-15)
G3: #5 Vanderbilt (19-12) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #7 Ole Miss (20-11) vs. #10 Alabama (17-13)
G5: #6 Georgia (17-12) vs. #11 Mississippi St. (14-16)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G6: #1 Texas A&M (24-7) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #4 LSU (18-13) vs. G3 Winner
G8: #2 Kentucky (23-8) vs. G4 Winner
G9: #3 South Carolina (24-7) vs. G5 Winnerr
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
G8 Winner vs. G9 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
2:00 PM on ESPN
 
 
Southland Conference Tournament
Site: Katy, TX
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 9
G1: #5 Southeastern Louisiana (11-20) vs. #8 New Orleans (10-19)
G2: #6 McNeese St. (9-19) vs. #7 Nicholls St. (10-22)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G3: #4 Houston Baptist (16-15) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #3 Sam Houston (17-14) vs. G2 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
#1 Stephen F. Austin (25-5) vs. G3 Winner
#2 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (24-6) vs. G4 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
9:30 PM on ESPN2
 
 
Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
Site: Houston
 
1st Round
Tuesday, March 8
G1: #7 Mississippi Valley St. (6-26) vs. #10 Grambling (7-23)
G2: #8 Alabama A&M (10-17) vs. #9 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (8-24)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Wedneday, March 9
G3: #2 Alcorn St. (15-14) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #1 Texas Southern (17-13) vs. G2 Winner
 
Thursday, March 10
G5: #3 Jackson St. (17-14) vs. #6 Prairie View A&M (7-23)
G6; #4 Southern (19-12) vs. #5 Alabama St. (14-16)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3 Winner vs. G5 Winner
G4 Winner vs. G6 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
6:30 PM on ESPNU
 
 
Summit League Tournament
Site: Sioux Falls, SD
 
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G1: #1 IPFW (23-8) vs. #8 South Dakota (14-17)
G2: #2 South Dakota St. (23-7) vs. #7 Oral Roberts (14-16)
 
Sunday, March 6
G3: #4 IUPUI (13-18) vs. #5 North Dakota St. (18-12)
G4: #3 Omaha (18-12) vs. #6 Denver (15-14)
 
Semifinal Round
Monday, March 7
G5: G1 Winner vs. G3 Winner
G6: G2 Winner vs. G4 Winner
 
Championship
Tuesday, March 8
9:00 PM on ESPN2
 
Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Site: New Orleans
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 10
G1: #5 Georgia Southern (14-16) vs. #8 South Alabama (13-18)
G2: #6 Georgia St. (16-13) vs. #7 Texas St. (14-15)
 
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 11
G3: #4 UL-Lafayette (16-13) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #3 UT-Arlington (22-9) vs. G2 Winner
 
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 12
#1 UALR (27-4) vs. G3 Winner
#2 UL-Monroe (19-12) vs. G4 Winner
 
Championship
Sunday, March 13
1:00 PM on ESPN2
 
 
Western Athletic Conference Tournament
Site: Las Vegas
 
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 10
G1: #4 Utah Valley (12-17) vs. #5 Missouri-KC (11-18)
G2: #2 Cal St. Bakersfield (21-8) vs. #7 Chicago St. (4-27)
G3: #3 Seattle (13-15) vs. #6 UT-Rio Grande Valley (8-21)
 
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 11
#1 New Mexico St. (22-9) vs. G1 Winner
G2 Winner vs. G3 Winner
 
Championship
Saturday, March 12
11:00 PM on ESPNU

 

In case you missed it, here are how the concluded tournaments finished.

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Score
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds  
Quarterfinal Round  
Tuesday, March 1  
G1: #8 USC-Upstate (10-21) @ #1 North Florida (21-10) 69-92
G2: #5 Kennesaw St. (11-19) @ #4 Florida Gulf Coast (17-13) 64-74
G3: #7 Stetson (10-21) @ #2 NJIT (17-13) 82-67
G4: #6 Lipscomb (11-20) @ #3 Jacksonville (16-15) 92-89
   
Semifinal Round  
Thursday, March 3  
#4 Florida Gulf Coast (18-13) @ #1 North Florida (22-10) 89-56
#7 Stetson (11-21) @ #6 Lipscomb (12-20) 96-75
   
Championship  
Sunday, March 6 12:30 PM on ESPN2  
#7 Stetson (12-21) @ #4 Florida Gulf Coast (19-13) 78-80
   
   
Big South Conference Tournament  
Site: Buies Creek, NC (Campbell)  
   
1st Round  
Thursday, March 3  
G1: #8 Longwood (9-22) vs. #9 Charleston Southern (9-20) 75-69
G2: #7 Radford (16-14) vs. #10 Presbyterian (10-19) 64-65
G3: #6 Gardner-Webb (15-15) vs. #11 Campbell (12-17) 79-69
   
Quarterfinal Round  
Friday, March 4  
G4: #1 High Point (20-9) vs. #8 Longwood (10-22) 89-78
G5: #4 UNC-Asheville (19-11) vs. #5 Liberty (13-18) 80-49
G6: #2 Winthrop (21-8) vs. #10 Presbyterian (11-19) 67-53
G7: #3 Coastal Carolina (18-10) vs. #6 Gardner-Webb (16-15) 65-69
   
Semifinal Round  
Saturday, March 5  
#1 High Point (21-9) vs. #4 UNC-Asheville (20-11) 69-80
#2 Winthrop (22-8) vs. #6 Gardner-Webb (17-15) 82-69
   
Championship  
Sunday, March 6  
#2 Winthrop (23-8) vs. #4 UNC-Asheville (21-11) 68-77
   
   
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament  
Site: St. Louis  
   
1st Round  
Thursday, March 3  
G1: #8 Loyola (Chi.) (14-16) vs. #9 Bradley (5-26) 74-66
G2: #7 MIssouri St. (12-18) vs. #10 Drake (7-23) 69-67
   
Quarterfinal Round  
Friday, March 4  
G3: #1 Wichita St. (23-7) vs. #8 Loyola (Chi.) (15-16) 66-58
G4: #4 Northern Iowa (19-12) vs. #5 Southern Illinois (22-9) 66-60
G5: #2 Evansville (23-8) vs. #7 Missouri St. (13-18) 66-56
G6: #3 Illinois St. (18-13) vs. #6 Indiana St. (14-16) 57-65
   
Semifinal Round  
Saturday, March 5  
#1 Wichita St. (24-7) vs. #4 Northern Iowa (20-12) 52-57
#2 Evansville (24-8) vs. #6 Indiana St. (15-16) 68-42
   
Championship Game  
Sunday, March 6  
#2 Evansville (25-8) vs. #4 Northern Iowa (21-12) 54-56
   
   
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament  
Site: Nashville  
   
1st Round  
Wednesday, March 2  
G1: #5 Tennessee Tech (19-10) vs. #8 Austin Peay (14-17) 72-92
G2: #6 Murray St. (16-13) vs. #7 Eastern Illinois (13-16) 78-62
   
Quarterfinal Round  
Thursday, March 3  
G3: #4 Tennessee St. (20-9) vs. #8 Austin Peay (15-17) 72-74
G4: #3 Morehead St. (18-11) vs. #6 Murray St. (17-13) 75-66
   
Semifinal Round  
Friday, March 4  
G5: #1 Belmont (20-10) vs. #8 Austin Peay (16-17) 96-97
G6: #2 UT-Martin (18-13) vs. #3 Morehead St. (19-11) 83-70
   
Championship  
Saturday, March 5 6:00 PM on ESPN2  
#2 UT-Martin (19-13) vs. #8 Austin Peay (17-17) 73-83

 

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Report

Our 32 expert bracketologists are now starting to agree on about 66 teams, and the bubble has shrunk to a small pop.  So far, one bubble has burst from among the at-large pool, as our gurus say that Wichita State will still get into the NCAA Tournament after losing the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament in a semifinal round game against eventual champion Northern Iowa.

 

The Metro Atlantic Championship Game and West Coast Conference semifinals should be quite interesting tonight.  If Monmouth loses in the MAAC, that will most likely pop another bubble, because the Hawks have a resume strong enough to receive an at-large bid.  St. Mary’s in the WCC might lose out if they lose a third time to Pepperdine, but if the Gaels win tonight and then lose to either Gonzaga or BYU in the WCC Championship Game, then they could also receive an at-large bid.

 

As the big power conferences prepare to start their tournaments in the next couple of days, there are a handful of teams that could fall out of the at-large picture if they suffer quick exits.  Among these teams are: Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Temple, Cincinnati, St. Joseph’s, Pittsburgh, and Tulsa.

 

There are teams that can still get into the at-large picture if they make runs to the Championship Game of their tournament but come up a bit short.  These include: Virginia Commonwealth, Florida, Michigan, Ohio State, and George Washington.

 

Here is the current bracketology, updated this morning.

Seed Team Auto.
1 Virginia  
1 Kansas  
1 Villanova  
1 North Carolina  
2 Oklahoma  
2 Oregon  
2 Michigan St.  
2 Xavier  
3 West Virginia  
3 Miami (Fla.)  
3 Utah  
3 Maryland  
4 Indiana  
4 Kentucky  
4 Duke  
4 Texas A&M  
5 Purdue  
5 Arizona  
5 Iowa St.  
5 Iowa  
6 California  
6 Texas  
6 Baylor  
6 Dayton  
7 Notre Dame  
7 Texas Tech  
7 Seton Hall  
7 Wisconsin  
8 Providence  
8 Butler  
8 Colorado  
8 USC  
9 Connecticut  
9 Oregon St.  
9 South Carolina  
9 Pittsburgh  
10 Syracuse  
10 Vanderbilt  
10 Wichita St.  
10 San Diego St.  
11 St. Mary’s  
11 Temple  
11 Valparaiso  
11 St. Bonaventure  
11 Cincinnati  
12 Monmouth  
12 UALR  
12 Yale IVY
12 St. Joseph’s  
12 Tulsa  
13 Akron  
13 Northern Iowa MVC
13 Hofstra  
13 South Dakota St.  
14 Chattanooga  
14 Stony Brook  
14 UAB  
14 Stephen F. Austin  
15 Hawaii  
15 UNC-Asheville Big South
15 New Mexico St.  
15 Weber State  
16 Florida Gulf Coast A-Sun
16 Hampton  
16 Wagner  
16 Austin Peay OVC
16 Lehigh  
16 Texas Southern  

 

 

 

 

February 29, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite–February 29, 2016

The finish line is in sight.  Championship Week I is here.  Conference tournament action tips off Tuesday night and by Friday night, 10 Conference Tournaments will be underway.

Let’s take a look at our weekly Bracketology composite first.  At this point in the season, we have shrunk “The Bubble” down to just the last 12 teams in and the first four teams out.  Once teams start pulling off upsets in conference tournament action, there will be fewer spots here as we must pop a Bubble for each automatic bid awarded to a team not currently under consideration.

This does not apply to the low and mid-major conferences other than maybe the Missouri Valley Conference and maybe the West Coast Conference.  If a team pulls off a monumental upset in, say, the Big Sky Conference Tournament, such as Idaho State upsetting Weber State, there will still be just one Big Sky team in the Dance.  However, if Mississippi State were to win the SEC Tournament, the Bulldogs would pop a bubble for some other major conference team, like Butler.

The 32 Bracket Einstein’s see it this way this week:

Seed Team Auto. Bid
1 Virginia ACC
1 Kansas Big 12
1 Villanova Big East
1 Xavier at-large
2 Michigan St. Big Ten
2 Oklahoma at-large
2 North Carolina at-large
2 Miami (Fla.) at-large
3 Oregon Pac-12
3 West Virginia at-large
3 Utah at-large
3 Maryland at-large
4 Duke at-large
4 Kentucky SEC
4 Iowa at-large
4 Indiana at-large
5 Iowa St. at-large
5 Texas at-large
5 Purdue at-large
5 Texas A&M at-large
6 California at-large
6 Baylor at-large
6 Wisconsin at-large
6 Arizona at-large
7 Seton Hall at-large
7 St. Joseph’s Atlantic 10
7 Notre Dame at-large
7 Dayton at-large
8 Texas Tech at-large
8 Colorado at-large
8 Pittsburgh at-large
8 Wichita St. MVC
9 South Carolina at-large
9 Providence at-large
9 Vanderbilt at-large
9 Cincinnati American
10 Oregon St. at-large
10 Syracuse at-large
10 Connecticut at-large
10 St. Mary’s WCC
11 USC at-large
11 VCU at-large
11 Valparaiso Horizon
11 UALR SunBelt
12 Michigan at-large
12 Florida at-large
12 Temple at-large
12 Butler at-large
12 San Diego St. MWC
12 Monmouth MAAC
13 Akron MAC
13 Hofstra Colonial
13 Yale Ivy
13 Chattanooga Southern
14 Stony Brook AmEast
14 Hawaii Big West
14 UAB CUSA
14 South Dakota St. Summit
15 Stephen F. Austin SLC
15 Belmont OVC
15 New Mexico St. WAC
15 Weber St. Big Sky
16 Winthrop Big South
16 North Florida A-Sun
16 Hampton MEAC
16 Wagner Northeast
16 Bucknell Patriot
16 Texas Southern SWAC
Last 4 Byes
VCU
USC
Connecticut
Syracuse
 
Last 4 In
Butler
Temple
Florida
Michigan
 
1st 4 Out
Alabama
Tulsa
St. Bonaventure
George Wash.

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning This Week

American East Conference Tournament
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds
Quarterfinal Round
Wednesday, March 2
#8 UMBC (7-24) @ #1 Stony Brook (23-6)
#7 Hartford (9-22) @ #2 Albany (24-7)
#6 Maine (8-21) @ #3 Vermont (19-12)
#5 Binghamton (8-21) @ #4 New Hampshire (18-11)
Semifinal Round
Monday, March 7
Lowest Remaining Seed @ Highest Remaining Seed
2nd Lowest Remaining Seed @ 2nd Highest Remaining Seed
Championship
Saturday, March 12
11:00 AM EST on ESPN2

Albany has won four straight games and 9 of 10, but Vermont has won 5 games in a row, including a 14-point shocker at Stony Brook.

Albany went 14-0 at home and is guaranteed at least 2 home games if they keep winning.  Stony Brook went 12-1 at home.

Vermont has the best shooting team in the league, while Stony Brook has the best defense.

 

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds
Quarterfinal Round
Tuesday, March 1
G1: #8 USC-Upstate (10-21) @ #1 North Florida (21-10)
G2: #5 Kennesaw St. (11-19) @ #4 Florida Gulf Coast (17-13)
G3: #7 Stetson (10-21) @ #2 NJIT (17-13)
G4: #6 Lipscomb (11-20) @ #3 Jacksonville (16-15)
Semifinal Round
Thursday, March 3
G1 winner vs. G2 winner at higher seed
G3 winner vs. G4 winner at higher seed
Championship
Sunday, March 6
12:30 PM on ESPN2

North Florida won its final three games to earn the top seed.  The Ospreys own a 13-1 home record and have the best offense and shooting in the league by a large margin.

Jacksonville lost its last two games of the regular season when the Dolphins had a chance to earn the top seed.

Florida Gulf Coast and NJIT have the top defenses in the league, with FGCU being best against opponent shooting accuracy, and NJIT being the best at forcing turnovers.

Note: Stetson is ineligible for the postseason, but the Hatters will play in the conference tournament.  Should they win, then regular season champion North Florida will receive the automatic bid.

 

Big South Conference Tournament
Site: Buies Creek, NC (Campbell)
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 3
G1: #8 Longwood (9-22) vs. #9 Charleston Southern (9-20)
G2: #7 Radford (16-14) vs. #10 Presbyterian (10-19)
G3: #6 Gardner-Webb (15-15) vs. #11 Campbell (12-17)
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 4
G4: #1 High Poiint (20-9) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #4 UNC-Asheville (19-11) vs. #5 Liberty (13-18)
G6: #2 Winthrop (21-8) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #3 Coastal Carolina (18-10) vs. G3 Winner
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G4 Winner vs. G5 Winner
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
Championship
Sunday, March 6
2:30 PM on ESPN2

High Point ended the season on a 6-game winning streak, while Winthrop went 8-2 in their last 10 games.  Former league leader UNC-Asheville faltered down the stretch, finishing 2-3 to drop to fourth place.

High Point won games down the stretch by not committing turnovers, shooting intelligent shots, and forcing turnovers on their opposition.

Coastal Carolina was the clear-cut leader in total defense during the season, while Radford is the league’s top rebounding team with nobody challenging in this department.

 

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Site: Baltimore
 
1st Round
Friday, March 4
G1: #8 Elon (16-15) vs. #9 Drexel (5-24)
G2: #7 Charleston (16-13) vs. #10 Delaware (7-22)
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G3: #1 Hofstra (22-8) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 James Madison (21-10) vs. #5 William & Mary (19-10)
G5: #2 UNC-Wilmington (22-7) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Towson (20-11) vs. #6 Northeastern (17-14)
Semifinal Round
Sunday, March 6
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
Championship
Monday, March 7
7:00 PM on NBC Sports Network

Hofstra could have been renamed Hotstra down the stretch, as they won their last six games to take the top seed in the conference tournament.  They have an incredible inside-outside tandem in guard Juan’ya Green (17.7 ppg, 7.2 apg) and forward Rokas Gustys (12.7 rebounds/game).

UNC-Wilmington won games by committing fewer turnovers than average and forcing a lot more turnovers than average and then capitalizing with fast break points.

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Site: Albany (Siena)
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 3
G1: #8 Rider (12-19) vs. #9 Quinnipiac (9-20)
G2: #7 Canisius (13-18) vs. #10 Niagara (7-24)
G3: #6 Manhattan (12-17) vs. #11 Marist (7-22)
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 4
G4: #1 Monmouth (25-6) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #4 Saint Peter’s (14-15) vs. #5 Fairfield (18-12)
Saturday, March 5
G6: #2 Iona (19-10) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #3 Siena (20-11) vs. G3 Winner
Semifinal Round
Sunday, March 6
G4 Winner vs. G5 Winner
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
Championship Round
Monday, March 7
7:00 PM on ESPN

Monmouth is in that gray area, where if the Hawks lose in the Championship Round, they will have a legitimate case to make for an at-large bid thanks to a difficult non-conference schedule that included some impressive wins.  Monmouth hit a little blip earlier in the month, but they righted the ship with three closing victories.

Iona is the hot team entering tournament play.  The Gaels won their last five games, including one over Monmouth.

Siena is the host team, and the Saints went 12-2 at home this year.  However, the two losses came to Monmouth and Iona.

The top three seeds have some stars that you will want to watch and thus follow this tournament.  Monmouth has guard Justin Robinson, who scores better than 20 points per game and is like a Willie Mays of basketball.  He can drill the three, take it to the hoop, dish for lots of assists, pick your pockets clean, and then ice the game at the foul line.

Iona’s A.J. English tops Robinson in scoring at 22.3 per game and assists at 6.1 per game and is the league’s best NBA prospect.  Siena’s power forward Brett Bisping is dominant inside, where he averages 15.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Site: St. Louis
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 3
G1: #8 Loyola (Chi.) (14-16) vs. #9 Bradley (5-26)
G2: #7 MIssouri St. (12-18) vs. #10 Drake (7-23)
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 4
G3: #1 Wichita St. (23-7) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 Northern Iowa (19-12) vs. #5 Southern Illinois (22-9)
G5: #2 Evansville (23-8) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Illinois St. (18-13) vs. #6 Indiana St. (14-16)
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
Championship Game
Sunday, March 6
2:00 PM on CBS

Arch Madness promises to be exciting this year.  Don’t automatically give this tournament to Wichita State, although the Shockers are definitely the favorites.  They will face a very difficult semifinal match if Northern Iowa advances past the quarterfinal round against Southern Illinois.

In Wichita’s favor, they ended the season by winning their last five games and 18 of 20 after they were 100% healthy.  After being upset at home by UNI, the Shockers won their last five by an average of 26.4 points per game.  In Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, they have the best backcourt in all of mid-Major basketball and almost the equal of Kentucky’s fine duo.

Why is UNI a threat to this resume?  To start, they beat North Carolina and Iowa State earlier this year.  To continue, they finished the season winning nine of their final ten, including stopping Wichita’s multi-year home winning streak.  To conclude, the Panthers play patiently, don’t make many mistakes, do not foul much, and in late games, they are tough in the clutch, shooting close to 80% at the foul line.

Keep an eye on Evansville, as the Purple Aces shoot the ball better than any MVC team and are second to Wichita in field goal defense.  The Aces have their own dynamic duo in D.J. Balentine (20.7 ppg, 4.4 apg) and Egidijus Mockevicius (16.6 ppg, 14.0 reb, 2.8 blk).

Northeast Conference
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds
 
Quarterfinal Round
Wednesday, March 2
G1: #8 Robert Morris (10-21) @ #1 Wagner (20-9)
G2: #5 Mount St. Mary’s (13-18) @ #4 St. Francis (Bklyn) (15-16)
G3: #7 St. Francis (Pa.) (13-16) @ #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (15-14)
G4: #6 Long Island (15-14) @ #3 Sacred Heart (12-17)
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G1 Winner vs. G2 Winner @ Higher Seed
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner @ Higher Seed
Championship
Tuesday, March 8
7:00 PM on ESPN or ESPN2

This league probably will send its champion to Dayton for a First Four game as a 16-seed waiting to take on a Virginia, Kansas, or Villanova if they win in Dayton.

Wagner finished 8-2 to run away with the regular season championship, as multiple teams could not hold onto close leads in key games.  In league play, the Seahawks forced opponents into bad shots and then controlled the boards to limit them to one shot on most possessions.

St. Francis of Brooklyn is the other hot team entering the tournament, coming in with a four-game streak.  The Terriers are the second best defensive team in the league, but they lack offensive stars.

Sacred Heart has the dominant offensive player in the league.  Cane Broome leads the loop with a 23-point average.

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Site: Nashville
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 2
G1: #5 Tennessee Tech (19-10) vs. #8 Austin Peay (14-17)
G2: #6 Murray St. (16-13) vs. #7 Eastern Illinois (13-16)
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 3
G3: #4 Tennessee St. (20-9) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #3 Morehead St. (18-11) G2 Winner
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 4
G5: #1 Belmont (20-10) vs. G3 Winner
G6: #2 UT-Martin (18-13) vs. G4 Winner
Championship
Saturday, March 5
6:00 PM on ESPN2

The top two seeds get byes to the semifinals, and that could be just what Belmont needs the most.  The Bruins limped home to a 4-4 finish to just barely escape with the regular season title, but they look more like the third or fourth best team in the tournament today.

Look out for Morehead State.  We began isolating on the Eagles a few weeks ago, when Coach Sean Woods had this team looking somewhat like the Kentucky teams he played on when he was in college.  Morehead State won their final six games, and more impressively half of those wins came against Belmont, Tennessee State, and on the road at Tennessee Tech, where the Golden Eagles lost just that one time.

In tournament play, a team that can consistently shut an opponent down for four or five minute stretches and enjoy scoring runs, is going to advance, and the Eagles get to start as the #3 seed.  Their road to the championship avoids both Tennessee State and Belmont until the finals, and they get a weaker #2 seed in UT-Martin, who won the West Division with a weaker conference record than the Eagles, who played in the much tougher East Division.

Tennessee State is the other hot team entering conference tournament play.  The Tigers pasted Belmont yesterday and will have to beat the Bruins again in the semifinals to get to the Championship Game.

Tennessee Tech is a monster at home and mouse on the road.  The Golden Eagles will have to win 4 times in 4 days to get to the Dance, and we do not see it possible.

 

Southern Conference
Site: Asheville, NC
 
1st Round
Friday, March 4
G1: #8 or 9 Samford (13-18) vs. #9 or 8 VMI (9-19) *
G2: #7 Mercer (18-13) vs. #10 Citadel (10-21)
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G3: #1 Chattanooga (25-5) * vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 Wofford (15-16) vs. #5 Western Carolina (15-16)
G5: #2 East Tennessee (21-10) VS. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Furman (17-14) vs. #6 UNC-Greensboro (14-17)
Semifinal Round
Sunday, March 6
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
Championship
Monday, March 7
9:00 PM on ESPN2

This tournament should be quite interesting.  Chattanooga dominated the league until the final weeks when the Mocs began to show signs of fatigue, which could be expected after losing their star guard Casey Jones earlier in the season.  Still, Chattanooga is the slight favorite to take three games and represent the SoCon in the NCAA Tournament.  The Mocs shoot competently, defend capably, and force a lot of turnovers on the enemy.

East Tennessee is hot as conference tournament action commences.  The Bucs won their final five games.  Guards Ge’Lawn Guyn and T.J. Cromer paced the team, combining for 33.2 points per game.

UNC-Greensboro is the dark horse team that is hard to figure out.  The Spartans lost four of five games including a terrible double-digit defeat to a weak VMI team.  Then, UNCG won their last five games including a blowout of Chattanooga in Choo-Choo town.  In those final 5 contests, the Spartans shot over 50% from the field and 40% from behind the arc, while holding opponents to less than 35% from the field and 27% from behind the arc.

Note: Chattanooga plays VMI tonight in a game that will not affect the pairings in the conference tournament.  The Mocs will be #1, and VMI will finish either 8th or 9th, meaning the Keydets will play Samford no matter what.  The only difference is which color jersey they wear in that game.

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Site: Las Vegas
 
1st Round
Friday, March 4
G1: #8 Loyola Marymount (13-16) vs. #9 San Diego (9-20)
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G2: #3 BYU (22-9) vs. #6 Santa Clara (11-19)
G3: #4 Pepperdine (17-12) vs. #5 San Francisco (15-14)
G4: #1 Saint Mary’s (24-4) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #2 Gonzaga (23-7) vs. #7 Portland (12-19)
Semifinal Round
Monday, March 7
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G2 Winner vs. G5 Winner
Championship
Tuesday, March 8
9:00 PM on ESPN

It’s not a gamble to say that Las Vegas is the place to be for the next fortnight if you are a college basketball junkie.  Four leagues will play their tournament in the desert oasis.  The WCC promises to be interesting this year, because it looks like only the tournament champion will be wearing dancing shoes.

Saint Mary’s deserves an at-large bid if they make it to the finals and lose, but it is not a guarantee, especially if some of the power conferences have upset victors.  The Gaels did not play a tough enough non-conference slate to merit a lot of at-large consideration.

Gonzaga played a difficult enough non-conference schedule, but the Bulldogs couldn’t beat anybody, as Washington was their best win, but the Huskies keep losing down the stretch to make that win more and more meaningless.

BYU cannot be discounted in this tournament.  The Cougars are a decent shooting team, decent defensive team, decent rebounding team, and decent at forcing turnovers and not committing a lot of them.  They just aren’t outstanding at anything, but it only takes one or two players to play his best ball of the season, and the Cougars could shock the two league powers.  With Chase Fischer, Nick Emery, and Kyle Collinsworth on the floor, BYU could light it up for three days and steal the bid.

 

February 15, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—February 15, 2016

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:13 pm

The first of the conference tournament play gets underway two weeks from tomorrow (March 1). Needless to say all remaining games among contenders for at-large bids and for seeding in one-bid leagues have become vital. One wrong loss or one big win might alter the course of a half-dozen or more games.

The “Bubble” remains very slippery as of today, and it also remains rather weak. When you have teams two games below .500 in their league and just a tad above .500 overall still in contention for a possible at-large bid, you know it is either a weak year or a year with extremely competitive races.

We see a lot of parity this year, but we also believe it is a rather weak basketball season. Of course, when 20 players are in the NBA who could still be in college, it tends to weaken the college game.
Consider that Kentucky could still have Willie Cauley-Stein, Archie Goodwin, Julius Randle, James Young, and Karl Anthony-Towns on its roster.

The number of one-bid leagues remained roughly the same this week. A couple of teams expected to receive at-large bids from mid and low-major conferences remained the same, but the names have changed a little. Saint Mary’s went from an almost assured at-large team to a team that must win the West Coast Conference Tournament, following a Thursday night home loss to Pepperdine.

With road games against Gonzaga and San Francisco the next two Saturdays, the Gaels will either get back on the bubble with impressive wins or falter and guarantee a must-win in the WCC Tournament.

Wichita State has now lost two of three games, including their first at home after 43 consecutive wins at the Roundhouse. The Shockers are still on the good side of the Bubble, but a couple more losses and an early Arch Madness exit in St. Louis could make for a precipitous hold onto an at-large invitation. A weather makeup game against New Mexico State tonight will be an interesting contest, which you can tune in online at ESPN3 at 8 PM Eastern.

At one time, Valparaiso had a shot at earning an at-large spot in the Big Dance if they lost in the Horizon League Finals, but a second loss to Wright State and a killer closing schedule means the Crusaders may have a tough time hanging on to the number one seed, as they hold a slim lead over Wright State and Oakland.

Three teams moved higher up on the Bubble since our last report. Gonzaga had won six straight games until falling at SMU Saturday night, but the Bulldogs appear to be on the safe side of the Bubble for now. If the Zags beat Saint Mary’s Saturday night, they should be safe with just one WCC Tournament win.

San Diego State continues to lead the Mountain West. The Aztecs are three games up on New Mexico, and a 4-1 finish with a visit to the MWC semifinals should allow SDSU to get into the field of 68 as an at-large.

Finally, there is Monmouth. Usually, teams in low-major conferences rarely sniff at-large consideration, but the Hawks are not your typical MAAC team. With non-conference wins over UCLA, Notre Dame, USC, and Georgetown, and having won 12 of their last 13 games, Monmouth may be a power conference team’s worst nightmare.

Let’s take a brief look at the One-Bid Leagues this week. These bids will go to the conference tournament champions. Rather than repeat much of the same stuff from last week, let’s concentrate on the actual upcoming tournaments.

All Standings from the official NCAA website.
All Championship Game times are Eastern

One-Bid Leagues
America East
Site–Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
U Mass-Lowell is not eligible for the tournament, leaving eight teams to play a true 8-team bracket
Quarterfinals–March 2: 8 @ 1, 7 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinals–March 7
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 11:00 AM

Current Standings

America East CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Stony Brook 13 0 22 4
Albany 10 3 21 7
New Hampshire 8 4 15 10
Vermont 7 5 15 12
Massachusetts Lowell 7 6 11 15
Maine 4 9 8 18
Binghamton 3 9 6 19
Hartford 2 10 7 20
UMBC 2 10 6 21

Atlantic Sun
Site–Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
Stetson is ineligible for the automatic NCAA bid, but the Hatters will be allowed to participate in the conference tournament; if Stetson wins the tournament, then the regular season champion will get the automatic bid.
Quarterfinals–March 1: 8 @ 1, 7 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinals–March 3
Championship–March 6: ESPN2 @ 12:30 PM

Current Standings

Atlantic Sun CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
North Florida 7 4 18 10
N.J.I.T. 7 4 16 11
Jacksonville 7 4 15 13
Florida Gulf Coast 6 5 15 12
Lipscomb 6 5 10 18
Kennesaw State 5 6 9 18
Stetson 3 8 9 18
USC Upstate 3 8 9 19

Big Sky
Site: Reno
All 12 teams will be eligible
Opening Round–March 8: 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinals–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
Semifinals–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN-U @ 8:45 PM

Current Standings

Big Sky CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Montana 11 2 16 8
Weber State 10 2 18 7
Eastern Washington 9 4 15 10
Idaho State 8 4 13 11
Idaho 8 5 16 10
North Dakota 7 6 12 12
Montana State 7 6 12 13
Northern Colorado 5 8 8 17
Portland State 4 8 8 15
Sacramento State 3 9 10 13
Southern Utah 2 11 4 19
Northern Arizona 2 11 4 20

Big South
Site: Campbell will host the conference tournament in Buies Creek, NC, with all 11 teams participating.
Opening Round–March 3: 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinals–March 4: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5
Semifinals–March 5
Championship–March 6: ESPN2 @ 2:30 PM

Current Standings

Big South CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Winthrop 10 4 18 7
UNC Asheville 10 4 17 9
Coastal Carolina 10 5 16 9
High Point 9 5 16 9
Liberty 9 5 12 15
Gardner-Webb 8 7 13 14
Radford 7 7 14 12
Charleston Southern 5 10 9 17
Longwood 4 10 8 19
Campbell 4 11 10 15
Presbyterian 3 11 8 17

Big West
Site: Anaheim
The number nine team will be disqualified from the tournament, with the other eight playing at the Honda Center.
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 11:30 PM

Current Standings

Big West CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Hawaii 9 1 20 3
UC Irvine 8 2 19 7
Long Beach State 8 3 14 12
UC Santa Barbara 5 5 11 12
UC Davis 5 6 10 14
UC Riverside 4 7 13 14
Cal State Northridge 4 7 9 16
Cal Poly 3 8 9 15
Cal State Fullerton 2 9 9 15

Colonial Athletic
Site: Baltimore
All 10 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 4: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 7: NBC Sports Network @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Colonial Athletic CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
North Carolina-Wilmington 12 2 20 5
Hofstra 10 4 18 8
James Madison 9 5 19 8
William & Mary 9 5 17 8
Towson 9 5 18 9
Charleston 8 6 16 9
Northeastern 6 8 14 13
Elon 5 9 14 13
Delaware 1 13 6 19
Drexel 1 13 3 22

Conference USA
Site: Birmingham
Southern Miss. is ineligible. The remaining 13 teams will participate.
Opening Round–March 8: 12 vs. 13
Second Round–March 9: 5 vs. 12/13, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12/13
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: Fox Sports 1 @ 2:30 PM

Current Standings

Conference USA CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
UAB 11 2 21 5
Middle Tennessee 10 3 18 7
Marshall 9 3 13 12
Louisiana Tech 8 4 19 6
Old Dominion 7 5 14 11
UTEP 7 6 15 11
Charlotte 6 6 10 15
Florida International 6 7 12 14
Florida Atlantic 5 8 7 19
Western Kentucky 4 8 12 13
North Texas 4 8 9 16
Rice 4 8 9 16
Southern Miss 4 8 7 16
UTSA 2 11 4 22

Horizon
Site: Detroit (Motor City Madness)
Northern Kentucky is ineligible for NCAA or NIT play, but they will participate in the Horizon Tournament
Opening Round–March 5: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 6: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 7
Championship–March 8: ESPN @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Horizon CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Valparaiso 11 2 21 5
Oakland 10 4 18 9
Wright State 10 4 16 11
Milwaukee 7 6 16 10
Green Bay 7 6 15 11
Detroit 7 7 13 12
Northern Kentucky 5 9 9 16
Youngstown State 4 9 9 17
Cleveland State 3 10 8 18
Illinois-Chicago 3 10 5 19

Ivy
The Ivy League does not conduct a conference tournament, even though they claim that their conference tournament is a 14-game round robin. However, all ties for first place result in a playoff for the championship, regardless of whether one team swept another team. There can be multiple team playoffs, and there is a slight chance that three teams could finish 12-2 or 11-3 this year.
There is a strong indication that the Ivy League will implement a conference tournament in the near future, possibly as early as next season.
If there is a playoff between two teams, it will be held on Saturday, March 12. If there is a three-way tie for first, two teams will play on Thursday, March 10, with the winner playing the third team on March 12.

Current Standings

Ivy League CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Yale 8 0 17 5
Princeton 6 1 16 5
Columbia 6 2 17 8
Pennsylvania 3 4 9 12
Harvard 2 6 10 14
Cornell 2 6 9 13
Dartmouth 2 6 8 14
Brown 2 6 7 15

Mid-American
Site: Opening round games will be played on campus sites on March 7. Final three rounds will be played in Cleveland.
Opening Round–March 7: 12 @ 5, 11 @ 6, 10 @ 7, 9 @ 8
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 7:30 PM

Current Standings

Mid-American CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST W L W L
Akron 9 3 20 5
Ohio 7 5 16 8
Kent State 7 5 16 9
Buffalo 7 5 14 11
Bowling Green 4 8 13 12
Miami (OH) 3 9 9 16
WEST W L W L
Ball State 7 5 16 9
Toledo 7 5 16 9
Northern Illinois 6 6 17 8
Central Michigan 6 6 13 12
Eastern Michigan 5 7 13 12
Western Michigan 4 8 10 15

Mideastern Athletic
Site: Norfolk State will host this tournament in Norfolk.
Florida A&M is ineligible. The remaining 12 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 7: 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11 & March 8: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 9: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10 & March 10: 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 1:00 PM

Current Standings

Mid-Eastern CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Hampton 9 2 14 9
Norfolk State 9 2 13 13
South Carolina State 9 3 14 12
Bethune-Cookman 6 5 9 16
Savannah State 6 6 10 13
Maryland-Eastern Shore 5 6 8 18
North Carolina A&T 5 6 8 18
Howard 4 6 10 15
North Carolina Central 4 6 9 15
Coppin State 4 7 6 18
Florida A&M 3 7 7 16
Morgan State 3 7 5 18
Delaware State 3 7 5 20

Northeast
Site: Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
9th and 10th place teams will be disqualified, while the top 8 teams will participate in the tournament.
Quarterfinal–March 2: 8 @ 1, 7 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinal–March 5
Championship–March 8: ESPN or ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Northeast CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Wagner 9 5 16 9
Fairleigh Dickinson 9 5 13 12
St. Francis (PA) 9 5 13 12
Mount St. Mary’s 9 5 12 15
Sacred Heart 8 6 9 16
St. Francis (BKN) 7 6 11 15
LIU Brooklyn 6 7 12 12
Robert Morris 6 8 8 19
Bryant University 4 10 7 20
Central Connecticut State 2 12 3 22

Ohio Valley
Site: Tennessee State & Belmont are the home teams in Nashville
The top 8 of the 12 teams will qualify for the tournament. The top 2 seeds get byes to the semifinals.
Opening Round–March 2: 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7
Quarterfinal–March 3: 3 vs. 6/7, 4 vs. 5/8
Semifinal–March 4: 1 vs. 4/5/8, 2 vs. 3/6/7
Championship–March 5: ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Ohio Valley CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST W L W L
Tennessee Tech 10 3 18 8
Belmont 10 3 18 9
Tennessee State 9 3 18 7
Morehead State 8 5 14 11
Eastern Kentucky 5 8 14 14
Jacksonville State 4 9 8 20
WEST W L W L
Murray State 8 5 14 12
Tennessee-Martin 7 5 15 12
Eastern Illinois 7 6 11 15
Austin Peay 5 8 12 16
SIU-Edwardsville 2 11 5 20
Southeast Missouri State 2 11 5 21

Patriot
Site: Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
All 10 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 1: 9 @ 8, 10 @ 7
Quarterfinal–March 3: 8/9 @ 1, 7/10 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 9: CBS Sports Network @ 7:30 PM

Current Standings

Patriot League CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Bucknell 10 4 13 12
Navy 9 5 18 9
Boston University 9 5 16 11
Lehigh 8 5 10 14
Colgate 8 6 12 13
Loyola (MD) 7 7 8 17
Army 6 8 15 11
Holy Cross 5 8 10 14
American University 5 9 7 18
Lafayette 2 12 5 20

Southern
Site: Asheville, NC
All 10 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 4: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 7: ESPN2 @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

Southern CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Chattanooga 12 2 23 4
Furman 11 4 17 11
Wofford 10 4 14 13
East Tennessee State 9 4 16 10
Mercer 8 6 18 9
Western Carolina 6 7 11 15
UNC Greensboro 5 8 9 17
Citadel 3 11 10 17
Samford 3 12 12 16
Virginia Military 2 11 7 17

Southland
Site: Katy, TX (About 30 miles west of Downtown Houston) (Houston Baptist is quasi-home team)
Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, and Incarnate World are not eligible.
The top 8 of the 10 remaining teams will participate. The top 2 seeds receive byes to the semifinals.
Opening Round–March 9: 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7
Quarterfinal–March 10: 3 vs. 6/7, 4 vs. 5/8
Semifinal–March 11: 1 vs. 4/5/8, 2 vs. 3/6/7
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 9:30 PM

Current Standings

Southland CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Stephen F. Austin 11 0 18 5
Texas A&M-CC 9 3 18 6
Incarnate Word 8 3 13 9
Houston Baptist 8 4 14 11
Sam Houston State 8 4 13 12
Abilene Christian 6 5 11 13
New Orleans 4 7 8 14
Southeastern Louisiana 4 7 6 18
Central Arkansas 4 7 5 16
Northwestern State 4 8 7 15
McNeese State 4 8 6 16
Nicholls State 3 9 7 19
Lamar 2 10 10 14

Southwestern Athletic
Site: Houston (Texas Southern will be the host team)
Alcorn State is ineligible for the NCAA & NIT, but the Braves will be allowed to participate in this tournament.
Opening Round–March 8: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 9: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10 & March 10: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN-U @ 6:30 PM

Current Standings

Southwestern Athletic CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Texas Southern 10 1 11 12
Southern University 9 3 17 8
Alcorn State 9 3 11 12
Jackson State 8 4 13 12
Mississippi Valley State 5 7 5 21
Alabama A&M 4 8 8 13
Alabama State 4 8 9 15
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4 8 6 20
Prairie View A&M 3 8 3 20
Grambling State 3 9 6 18

Summit
Site: Sioux Falls, SD
The number 9 team does not qualify. The remaining 8 teams participate.
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7 & March 6: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 7
Championship–March 8: ESPN2 @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

Summit League CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
South Dakota State 9 3 20 6
IPFW 9 3 20 7
Nebraska-Omaha 9 4 17 10
IUPUI 7 5 11 16
North Dakota State 6 6 16 10
Denver 5 8 13 13
Oral Roberts 5 8 13 14
South Dakota 4 9 12 15
Western Illinois 2 10 9 14

Sun Belt
Site: New Orleans
The 9th, 10th, and 11th place teams do not qualify. The remaining 8 teams participate with the top 2 seeds receiving byes to the semifinals.
Opening Round–March 10: 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7
Quarterfinal–March 11: 3 vs. 6/7, 4 vs. 5/8
Semifinal–March 12: 1 vs. 4/5/8, 2 vs. 3/6/7
Championship–March 13: ESPN2 @ 1:00 PM

Current Standings

Sun Belt CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Arkansas-Little Rock 12 2 22 3
Louisiana-Lafayette 10 4 14 9
Texas-Arlington 8 5 17 7
Louisiana-Monroe 8 5 13 12
Arkansas State 7 6 11 14
Georgia Southern 7 7 11 13
Georgia State 6 8 13 10
South Alabama 6 8 11 14
Texas State 4 9 10 12
Appalachian State 4 10 6 19
Troy 3 11 8 17

Western Athletic
Site: Las Vegas
Grand Canyon is ineligible. The remaining 7 teams will participate.
Quarterfinal–March 10: 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semfinal–March 11: 1 vs. 4/5, 2/7 vs. 3/6
Championship–March 12: ESPN-U @ 11:00 PM

Current Standings

Western Athletic CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
New Mexico State 9 1 18 8
Grand Canyon 8 2 22 4
Cal State Bakersfield 8 2 18 7
Seattle 6 4 12 12
Utah Valley 4 6 10 15
UMKC 3 7 10 15
Texas Rio Grande Valley 2 8 6 19
Chicago State 0 10 4 23

Possible Two-Bid Leagues
These are the conferences where if the overwhelming favorite wins the conference tournament, there will only be one bid awarded to these leagues, but if the heavy favorite loses in the championship round or possibly semifinal round, there could be two bids awarded to these leagues, bursting the bubble of a probably undeserving at-large team from a power conference.

Metro Atlantic
Site: Siena will host the MAAC Tournament in Albany
Opening Round–March 3: 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 4: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, & March 5: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 7: ESPN @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Metro Atlantic Athletic CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Monmouth 13 2 21 5
Iona 11 4 14 10
Siena 11 5 18 9
St. Peter’s 9 6 11 13
Manhattan 8 6 11 12
Fairfield 8 7 14 11
Rider 7 9 11 16
Canisius 6 10 11 16
Quinnipiac 5 10 8 16
Niagara 4 12 6 21
Marist 2 13 5 19

Monmouth has a shot at receiving an at-large bid if they do not win the MAAC Tournament. Siena would be a tough out in a possible semifinal or championship game match, but the Hawks swept the Saints, including a 6-point win in Albany. At 28-6, Monmouth would have to be a serious candidate for an at-large bid, but we won’t discard the fact that politics play some part in the Selection Committee’s decision-making, so a borderline team from a power conference could take this spot away from a deserving Monmouth team should the Hawks hit a bump in the road in Albany.

Missouri Valley
Site: St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All 10 teams will participate.
Opening Round–March 3: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 4: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 5
Championship–March 6: CBS @ 2:00 PM

Current Standings

Missouri Valley CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Wichita State 12 2 18 7
Illinois State 10 4 16 11
Southern Illinois 9 5 20 7
Evansville 9 5 20 7
Northern Iowa 8 6 16 11
Indiana State 7 7 13 13
Missouri State 7 7 11 15
Loyola (IL) 5 9 12 14
Bradley 2 12 4 23
Drake 1 13 6 20

Mountain West
Site: Las Vegas (UNLV Hosts)
All 11 teams participate.
Opening Round–March 9: 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: CBS @ 6:00 PM

Current Standings

Mountain West CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
San Diego State 12 1 19 7
New Mexico 8 4 15 10
Boise State 8 5 17 9
Fresno State 7 5 16 9
Nevada 7 5 15 9
Colorado State 6 6 14 11
UNLV 6 7 15 11
Wyoming 5 8 12 14
Utah State 4 8 12 11
Air Force 3 10 12 14
San Jose State 3 10 8 17

San Diego State has one difficult game left on its regular conference schedule, a game at New Mexico, where the Lobos are tough to beat. If the Aztecs win that game and win out the regular season, their record will then be 24-7 with wins over California and two over New Mexico, plus losses to Utah, West Virginia, and Kansas. This looks like a rather thin resume, but the Aztecs currently hold onto a #46 RPI, and if they win out, that ranking will move up a little. SDSU would then have to make it to the championship round and lose before they would be a serious at-large candidate at 26-8.

West Coast
Site: Las Vegas
Pacific is ineligible. The remaining 9 teams will participate.
Opening Round–March 4: 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 7
Championship–March 8: ESPN @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

West Coast CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Gonzaga 12 2 20 6
Saint Mary’s 11 3 20 4
BYU 10 4 19 8
Pepperdine 9 6 16 10
San Francisco 7 7 13 11
Portland 5 9 11 16
Santa Clara 5 9 9 17
Pacific 5 9 7 17
Loyola Marymount 4 11 11 15
San Diego 3 11 8 17

What’s an NCAA Tournament without Gonzaga? The Bulldogs are to the 21st Century Big Dance what Marquette was to the 1970’s NCAA Tournament, the best program year in and year out not in a power conference. Saint Mary’s can no longer be considered a serious at-large candidate, but the Gaels could still work their way into contention by winning out, including a season-sweep over Gonzga.

The Power Conferences

American Athletic
Site: Orlando
SMU is ineligible. The remaining 10 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 10: 8 vs. 9 (ESPNU–3:30 PM), 7 vs. 10 (ESPNNews–6 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: 1 vs. 8/9 (ESPN2–12PM), 4 vs. 5 (ESPN2–2PM), 2 vs. 7/10 (ESPNU–7PM), 3 vs. 6 (ESPNU–9PM)

Semifinal–March 12: ESPN2 @ 3 & 5 PM

Championship–March 13: ESPN @ 3:15 PM

Current Standings

American Athletic Conference CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Temple 10 3 16 8
SMU 9 3 21 3
Cincinnati 9 4 19 7
Connecticut 8 4 18 7
Houston 8 5 18 7
Tulsa 8 5 16 9
Memphis 5 7 14 11
UCF 5 7 11 12
Tulane 3 10 10 16
East Carolina 2 10 10 15
South Florida 2 11 5 21

Safe
—–

Close
Connecticut

Bubble
Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa

With wins over Wichita State, Connecticut, and SMU, Tulsa could have been cruising up to Last Four In status with a win at UConn Saturday. Falling just short in a frantic comeback, keeps the Golden Hurricane out of the Dance for now. Temple is the hot team with five consecutive wins boosting the Owls into first place ahead of SMU in the league standings. Still, their resume needs a little more upward tweaking. Cincinnati has won six of seven and eight of ten games, and the Bearcats have a chance to work their way into the Field of 68 by closing strong with two wins from among Tulsa, Connecticut, and SMU.

 

Atlantic 10
Site: Brooklyn
All 14 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: American Sports Network 12-13 (6:30PM), 11-14 (9PM)

Second Round–March 10: NBC Sports Network 8-9 (12PM), 5-12/13 (2:30 PM), 7-10 (6:30 PM), 6-11/14 (9PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: NBC Sports Network 1-8/9 (12 PM), 4-5/12/13 (2:30 PM), 2-7/10 (6:30 PM), 3-6/11/14 (9PM)

Semifinal–March 12: CBS Sports Network @ 1:30 PM & 4:00 PM

Championship–March 13: CBS @ 12:30 PM

Current Standings

Atlantic 10 CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Dayton 11 1 21 3
Saint Joseph’s (PA) 10 2 21 4
Virginia Commonwealth 10 2 18 7
St. Bonaventure 9 3 17 6
George Washington 7 5 18 7
Davidson 6 6 14 9
Richmond 6 6 14 10
Rhode Island 6 6 14 11
Duquesne 5 7 15 10
Massachusetts 4 8 11 13
Fordham 3 9 12 11
George Mason 3 9 9 16
Saint Louis 3 9 8 16
La Salle 1 11 5 18

Safe
Dayton

Close
St. Joseph’s

Bubble
VCU, George Washington, St. Bonaventure

St. Joe’s has won nine of their last ten, and the Hawks could move to safe status with a midweek win over Dayton. Losing at UMass last week sent VCU down to the Bubble, and the Rams don’t seem to be clicking at crunch time like they did when Shaka Smart coached this team. GWU has fallen even more than VCU. The Colonials have only split their last eight games, and without a mad dash to the finish, they will be NIT-bound. St. Bonaventure owns a five-game winning streak, but the Bonnies must pick up a signature win on the road to climb high enough to earn an at-large bid. They will get that chance with a Saturday afternoon contest at Dayton.

 

Atlantic Coast
Site: Washington, D.C.
Louisville is ineligible. The remaining 14 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 8: ESPN2 12 vs. 13 (12PM), 11 vs. 14 (2 PM)

Second Round–March 9: ESPN 8 vs. 9 (12 PM), 5 vs. 12/13 (2 PM), ESPN2 7 vs. 10 (7 PM), 6 vs. 11/14 (9 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 10: ESPN 1 vs. 8/9 (12 PM), 4 vs. 5/12/13 (2 PM), 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6/11/14 (9 PM)

Semifinal–March 11: ESPN or ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM & 9:00 PM

Championship– March 12: ESPN @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

Atlantic Coast CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
North Carolina 10 2 21 4
Miami (FL) 9 3 20 4
Virginia 9 4 20 5
Notre Dame 9 4 18 7
Duke 8 4 19 6
Louisville 8 4 19 6
Clemson 8 5 15 10
Syracuse 8 5 18 8
Pittsburgh 6 6 17 7
Florida State 6 7 16 9
Virginia Tech 5 7 13 12
Georgia Tech 3 9 13 12
North Carolina State 3 9 13 12
Wake Forest 1 12 10 15
Boston College 0 12 7 18

Safe
Virginia, North Carolina, Miami (Fla.), Duke

Close
Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh

Bubble
Florida State, Clemson
Duke moved into safe status with wins over Louisville and Virginia. With three straight wins over North Carolina, Clemson, and Louisville, Notre Dame is maybe one more win away from moving to the Safe line. Syracuse has won five in a row, and a Saturday win over Pittsburgh may be enough to move the Orangemen to Safe status. as for the Panthers, three consecutive losses and a 3-6 record after a 3-0 start in league play is quickly pushing them down to the Bubble. Pitt must correct the free fall and win at least three of their last six games and then once in the ACC Tournament to stay on the positive side of the Dance fence. Florida State faces must wins this week in games with Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. The Seminoles then need to win at least one of their last three against Duke, Notre Dame, and Syracuse and then probably win one ACC Tournament game before they become serious players. Clemson probably needs to get to 12-6 in league play to make the Tournament, because the Tigers don’t have much to show outside of league play with no impressive wins.

Bubble Buster: Virginia Tech has played the league leaders close and owns a win over Virginia. They will have to win four games in four days, but it is remotely possible, they could do it.

 

Big 12
Site: Kansas City
All 10 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: ESPNU 8 vs. 9 (7:00 PM), 7 vs. 10 (9:00 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 10: ESPN2 4 vs. 5 (12:30 PM), 1 vs. 8/9 (2:30 PM), ESPNU 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6 (9 PM)

Semifinal–March 11: ESPN or ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM & 9:00 PM

Championship–March 12: ESPN @ 6:00 PM

Current Standings

Big 12 CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Kansas 9 3 21 4
West Virginia 9 3 20 5
Oklahoma 8 4 20 4
Baylor 7 5 18 7
Iowa State 7 5 18 7
Texas 7 5 16 9
Texas Tech 5 7 15 9
Kansas State 3 9 14 11
Oklahoma State 3 9 12 13
TCU 2 10 11 14

Safe
Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa State

Close
Texas, Baylor

Bubble
Texas Tech, Kansas St.

Texas and Baylor are virtually safe at this moment, just as long as neither goes into a free-fall. The Longhorns have a 21 RPI, while Baylor is at 30, and both teams’ schedules will only send those numbers higher shy of losing out. Texas Tech is now a serious player following a week in which the Red Raiders beat Iowa State and then trounced Baylor in Waco. TTU can get into the Dance with an 8-10 league record and one conference tourney win. Kansas State is a different story altogether. The Wildcats have a lot of work left to do. It will take a sweep of TCU plus upset wins over Texas and Texas Tech just to get to 7-11 in league play, which would be a historic low conference record for any at-large team. We don’t see the boys from the Little Apple making it this year.

 

Big East
Site: New York (St. John’s is the host at Madison Square Garden)
All 10 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: Fox Sports 1 8 vs. 9 (7:00 PM) 7 vs. 10 (9:30 PM *)

Quarterfinal–March 10: Fox Sports 1 1 vs. 8/9 (12 PM), 4 vs. 5 (2:30 PM *), 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6 (9:30 PM *)

Semifinal–March 11: Fox Sports 1 @ 6:30 PM & 9:00 PM *

Championship–March 12: FOX @ 5:30 PM

* All Games immediately following another game will begin 30 minutes after the conclusion of the preceding game. Times given are approximate.

Current Standings

Big East CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Villanova 12 1 22 3
Xavier 10 3 22 3
Creighton 8 5 17 9
Seton Hall 7 5 17 7
Providence 7 6 19 7
Georgetown 7 6 14 12
Butler 6 7 17 8
Marquette 5 8 16 10
DePaul 2 10 8 16
St. John’s 0 13 7 19

Safe
Villanova, Xavier

Close
Providence

Bubble
Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton

A 2-4 slide has begun to drop Providence out of Safe status and close to falling to Bubble status. The Friars next two games are on the road against Xavier and Seton Hall and two more losses sends them down to the Bubble. Seton Hall’s home loss to Butler damaged but did not destroy the Pirates’ chances, and did not rescue the Bulldogs. It just left both in limbo with more work to accomplish if they want a Dance ticket. Creighton is trying to be like a stretch-running horse, picking the right time to start a winning streak that has reached three games. A win at Butler tomorrow night would send the Blue Jays ahead of both Butler and Seton Hall in the Bubble department.

 

Big Ten
Site: Indianapolis
All 14 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: ESPN2 12 vs. 13 (4:30 PM), Big Ten Network 11 vs. 14 (7:00 PM)

Second Round–March 10: Big Ten Network 8 vs. 9 (12PM), 5 vs. 12/13 (2:30 PM), ESPN2 7 v. 10 (6:30PM), 6 vs. 11/14 (9PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: ESPN 1 vs. 8/9 (12PM), 4 vs. 5/12/13 (2:30PM), Big Ten Net. 2 vs. 7/10 (6:30PM), 3 vs. 6/11/14 (9PM)

Semifinal–March 12: CBS @ 1:00 PM & 3:30 PM

Championship–March 13: CBS @ 3:00 PM

Current Standings

Big Ten CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Iowa 11 2 20 5
Indiana 10 3 20 6
Maryland 10 3 22 4
Michigan 9 4 19 7
Wisconsin 8 4 16 9
Purdue 8 5 20 6
Ohio State 8 5 16 10
Michigan State 8 5 21 5
Nebraska 6 7 14 12
Northwestern 5 8 17 9
Penn State 3 9 12 13
Illinois 3 9 11 14
Rutgers 0 12 6 19
Minnesota 0 13 6 19

Safe
Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue

Close
Indiana, Michigan

Bubble
Wisconsin

If the NCAA Tournament began today, Wisconsin would be in the field. The Badgers are the hottest team in the league with seven consecutive wins, including a mighty impressive 13-point win at Maryland Saturday night, in which the Badgers were in control for almost the entire game, following an early 23-5 run.

 

Pac-12
Site: Las Vegas
All 12 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: Pac-12 Net. 8 vs. 9 (3PM), 5 vs. 12 (5:30 PM), 7 vs. 10 (9PM), 6 vs. 11 (11:30 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 10: Pac-12 Net. 1 vs. 8/9 (3PM), 4 vs. 5/12 (5:30 PM, 2 vs. 7/10 (9PM), Fox Sports 1 3 vs. 6/11 (11:30 PM)

Semifinal–March 11: Pac-12 Network @ 9:00 PM, Fox Sports 1 @ 11:30 PM

Championship–March 12: Fox Sports 1 @ 10:00 PM

Current Standings

Pac-12 CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Oregon 9 4 20 6
Arizona 9 4 21 5
Colorado 8 5 19 7
Utah 8 5 19 7
USC 7 5 18 7
California 7 5 17 8
Washington 7 6 15 10
Oregon State 6 7 15 9
Stanford 5 7 12 11
UCLA 5 7 14 11
Arizona State 4 9 14 12
Washington State 1 12 9 16

Safe
Oregon, Arizona, Utah, USC

Close
California, Colorado

Bubble
Oregon St., Washington, Stanford, UCLA

Cal’s three straight wins gives the Bears a leg up on the five other contenders in the Close or Bubble range. Cal’s last six games are pivotal, starting with a road trip to the Evergreen State to take on Washington and Washington State; followed by home games with USC and UCLA; and concluding with road games at Arizona and Arizona State. A 4-2 finish would give them enough wins to secure a bid. Colorado must win three out of their final five and then do something in the Pac-12 Tournament, and the Buffs have a tough road to climb to get there. As for the four teams on the Bubble, only Oregon State is playing like they belong in the conversation. It figures that one of these four will move into the field, but it is not a guarantee. Washington is the most likely of this quartet to get hot and go on a run in Las Vegas.

 

Southeastern
Site: Nashville (Vanderbilt is the host team)
Missouri is ineligible. The remaining 13 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: SEC Network 12 vs. 13 (8:00 PM)

Second Round–March 10: SEC Net. 8 vs. 9 (1 PM), 5 vs. 12/13 (3:30 PM), 7 vs. 10 (7 PM), 6 vs. 11 (9:30 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: SEC Net. 1 vs. 8/9 (1 PM), 4 vs. 5/12/13 (3:30 PM), 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6/11 (9:30 PM)

Semifinal–March 12: ESPN 1:00 PM & 3:30 PM

Championship–March 13: ESPN 1:00 PM

Current Standings

Southeastern CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Kentucky 9 3 19 6
LSU 9 3 16 9
South Carolina 8 4 21 4
Texas A&M 7 5 18 7
Florida 7 5 16 9
Georgia 7 5 14 9
Vanderbilt 7 5 15 10
Ole Miss 6 6 16 9
Alabama 6 6 15 9
Arkansas 5 7 12 13
Tennessee 5 7 12 13
Mississippi State 3 9 10 14
Auburn 3 9 9 15
Missouri 2 10 9 16

Safe
Kentucky

Close
Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida

Bubble
LSU, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss

Texas A&M fell from the Safe to Close with their 0 for February streak. 3-3 is about the absolute worst the Aggies can finish, and they will be in with a 10-8 league mark with just one conference tournament win. South Carolina and Florida will eventually play themselves into the Safe range short of losing four in a row like A&M. LSU is tied for first in the league standings, and with Ben Simmons, it figures that the Selection Committee will give the Tigers major extra credit. Alabama is the team nobody wants to play at the present. The win at Florida Saturday night was ugly, but the Crimson Tide dominated the Gators in the second half and looked like an Alabama team from the Wimp Sanderson days. With their schedule, a 10-8 record probably gets ‘Bama in the party. Vanderbilt has yet to get a signature win away from home. They still have road games at Florida and Texas A&M, and it figures the Commodores will have to win at least one of those two and hold serve at home, or if they cannot win a key road game, Vandy will need to make it to the semifinals of the conference tournament to have a shot. Ole Miss has even less road success this year, and the Rebels have just one more chance to pick up a quality road win at Texas A&M, who they play tomorrow night. Short of winning in Aggieland, Ole Miss will probably have to make it all the way to the conference championship game to have any at-large shot.

 

This Week’s Bracketology Field of 68

Seed Team
1 Kansas
1 Villanova
1 Oklahoma
1 Virginia
2 North Carolina
2 Iowa
2 Xavier
2 Maryland
3 Miami (Fla.)
3 West Virginia
3 Oregon
3 Michigan St.
4 Iowa St.
4 Kentucky
4 Dayton
4 Duke
5 Purdue
5 Arizona
5 Utah
5 Notre Dame
6 Texas
6 Texas A&M
6 USC
6 Indiana
7 South Carolina
7 Baylor
7 California
7 Providence
8 Colorado
8 Syracuse
8 Florida
8 Connecticut
9 St. Joseph’s
9 Pittsburgh
9 Michigan
9 Wisconsin
10 Oregon St.
10 Seton Hall
10 Florida St.
10 Wichita St.
11 Monmouth
11 Gonzaga
11 Valparaiso
11 San Diego St.
12 Cincinnati
12 Texas Tech
12 LSU
12 VCU
12 Temple
12 UALR
13 Chattanooga
13 Akron
13 Stony Brook
13 South Dakota St.
14 Hawaii
14 Yale
14 UNC-Wilmington
14 UAB
15 Tennessee St.
15 Stephen F. Austin
15 New Mexico St.
15 Montana
16 UNC-Asheville
16 Hampton
16 NJIT
16 Wagner
16 Bucknell
16 Texas Southern

 

Last 4 In
Texas Tech
LSU
VCU
Temple
 
First 4 Out
Alabama
Butler
Washington
St. Bonaventure
 
Next 4 Out
Vanderbilt
GWU
Tulsa
UCLA
 
1st Round #16’s
NJIT
Wagner
Bucknell
Texas Southern

 

 

January 25, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—January 25, 2016

There has been little change in the bracketology rankings in the last six days, but there has been a shifting in the seedings.  Additionally, we have moved another mid-major team ahead of some at-large major conference opponents.  This now allows for two 11-seeds and two 12-seeds to appear in First Four games in Dayton.

Let’s start with the One-Big Leagues.  As of today, there are 23 one-bid leagues, but in the case of two or three leagues, if the overwhelming favorite fails to earn the automatic bid, there is a puncher’s chance that these leagues will steal a second bid away from an at-large team.

America East

Stony Brook 6-0/15-4 is beginning to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the league.  The Seawolves mounted a late charge Saturday to knock off second place Albany.  They must make up a game tonight against Maine, and then they play at Vermont on Saturday.  If SB wins both games, the regular season title is almost assured.

 

Atlantic Sun

North Florida (6-0/17-6) took sole possession of first place after Lipscomb upset Florida Gulf Coast (4-1/13-8) thanks to raining threes for 40 minutes.  It will be a big bird fight this Saturday when the Ospreys and Eagles meet at FGCU.

 

Big Sky

The two previously unbeaten teams in conference play lost last week.  Montana (7-1/12-7) and Weber State (5-1/13-6) now have six additional contenders to worry about in a league where just the top 8 of the 12 teams qualify for the conference tournament.  It should be an exciting three days for this league when determining their one automatic bid.

 

Big South

UNC-Asheville (7-2/14-7) lost at High Point (6-3/13-7) in the middle of last week, and now this league is a wide-open race with Winthrop (6-3/14-6), Coastal Carolina (5-4/11-8), Radford (5-4/12-9), and Gardner-Webb (5-4/10-11) all in contention.  This will also be an exciting conference tournament.

 

Big West

It looks like a two-team race between Hawaii (5-0/16-2) and UC-Irvine (5-0/16-5).  The Warriors have won eight games in a row including one over Auburn, while their two losses were on the road by eight at Texas Tech and by three to Oklahoma.  UH should be in the discussion for at-large worthiness.  UCI has won nine of ten games, with the sole loss coming at Kansas.  In that KU game, UCI led for almost all of the first half, as the Jayhawks were hesitant to penetrate the lane against 7 foot 6 inch titan Mamadou Ndiaye and backup center, 7 foot 2 inch Herculean Ioannis Dimakopoulos.

 

Colonial Athletic

This is a tight three-way race at the moment with a group of two or three more capable of getting back into the hunt.  James Madison (6-2/16-5), UNC-Wilmington (6-2/14-5), and Hofstra (6-2/14-6) lead two others by a game and two additional teams by two games.  JMU won at Hofstra in overtime, so the Dukes are the team to beat for now.

 

Conference USA

This race is starting to evolve into a three-team contest.  UAB (7-0/17-3) has won 14 consecutive games, but they have no signature wins and cannot possibly earn an at-large bid with their resume.  Middle Tennessee (6-1/14-5) and Marshall (6-1/10-10) are a game back, but UAB must still play at both contenders plus host Marshall.

 

Horizon

With six consecutive wins, including an 11-point victory over the co-leader, Wright State (7-1/13-8) has moved into the penthouse with Valparaiso (7-1/17-4).  The race will probably come down to the wire, with a February 13 game left at Valpo, the Crusaders are still the slight favorite.  If Valpo wins 25 games and then loses to Wright State in the Horizon League Tournament Championship, there is a very slim chance the Crusaders could sneak an at-large bid.  They have semi-big wins against Oregon State and Belmont.

 

Ivy

The Ivy League is the most prestigious academic group in the nation, but their athletic scheduling is just plain goofy. Six of the eight teams have played two conference games.  In all six cases, the teams played home and home against one other conference team.  Yale (2-0/11-5) swept Brown. Columbia (2-0/13-6) swept Cornell; and Harvard (1-1/9-9) and Dartmouth (1-1/7-9) split their two games.  Princeton (1-0/11-4) appears to be the best in the league, and the Tigers won their lone conference game over Penn.  There are no big wins outside of the league, and there is no conference tournament.  The regular season champ gets the automatic bid, but there is a playoff in any tie for first, even if one team swept the other in the regular season.

 

Metro Atlantic

Monmouth (7-2/15-5) is the only team with multiple quality wins (UCLA, USC, Notre Dame, and Georgetown), but the Hawks are struggling to keep the lead in the MAAC having lost at Manhattan (5-4/8-10) last week.  St. Peter’s (6-2/8-9) had snuck into a tie until losing to fading Iona (7-3/10-9).  Siena (6-3/13-7) has won four of five to move into contention.  While Monmouth has the best chance of becoming a Sweet 16 darling, they have not wrapped up a bid and will most likely get the shaft if they do not earn the automatic bid.

 

Mid-American

The MAC is the final remaining conference to divide its teams into basketball divisions.  There are two teams in both divisions that look capable of winning an opening round NCAA Tournament game, but this league will not receive multiple bids.  In the four-way cat fight for the lone bid are Kent State (5-1/14-5) and Akron (4-2/15-4) from the East and Northern Illinois (5-1/16-3) and Ball State (4-2/13-6) from the West.  Akron has the best out-of-conference success with wins over Arkansas, Marshall, and Iona.

 

Mideastern Athletic

Hampton (7-0/11-7) has opened up a game and a half lead over Norfolk State (5-1/9-12) and a 2 1/2 game lead over Howard (3-1/9-10).  If the Pirates win the bid, the MEAC might avoid a First Four game in Dayton, but that is still not definite.

 

Missouri Valley

This is the one of two leagues where the number of bids will move from one to two if the one behemoth loses in the MVC Tournament.  Wichita State (8-0/14-5) is going to be in the Big Dance whether it is an automatic or at-large invitation.  If the Shockers win Arch Madness, then the MVC is almost guaranteed to be a one-bid league.  Southern Illinois (7-1/18-3) and Evansville (6-2/17-4) look like they have records deserving of at-large contention, but SIU has no resume-building win, while the Purple Aces can boast of wins over Belmont and UC-Irvine, which is not going to get them in the Dance without having a guaranteed ticket.

 

Mountain West

This is the other league where an upset in the conference tournament could see a second bid awarded to the league.  San Diego State (7-0/14-6) is the class of the league again, but the Aztecs cannot count on a definite at-large invitation if they come up short in the conference tourney.  SDSU has a win over Cal, when the Bears were ranked in the top 15, but UC has fallen out of the rankings.  The Aztecs have losses to power teams in Utah, West Virginia, and Kansas.  Boise State (6-1/15-5) has a win over Oregon as well as non-embarrassing losses to Michigan State and Arizona twice.  The Broncos lost at home to SDSU.

 

Northeast

Eight of the Ten teams can still win the conference title, and any of the eight could win the conference tournament.  Mount St. Mary’s (6-2/9-12) leads, but Wagner (5-3/12-7) would probably give the conference a better chance to avoid Dayton and a First Four game.

 

Ohio Valley

Belmont (7-0/15-6) sprinted to a 20+ – point lead over Tennessee State (5-1/14-5) in their first meeting of the season yesterday, before withstanding a late Tiger rally to make it close.  One of these two Nashville rivals should get the automatic bid.

 

Patriot

This looks like a three-team race for the conference title, and the winner hosts the conference tournament, so it is important to win the regular season title.  Bucknell (7-1/10-9) is the closest thing to a dynasty team in this league.  Navy (6-1/15-5) and Colgate (6-2/10-9) are the two others contending for first.

 

Southern

Chattanooga (6-1/17-3) has wins over Georgia and Dayton as well as a win over leading contender East Tennessee (6-1/13-7).  Mercer (4-3/14-6) still hosts the co-leaders, so the Bears have a chance.

 

Southland

This league is quickly improving each year, and the time may come when the SLC challenges the Missouri Valley for Mid-Major supremacy.  Houston Baptist (7-0/12-7) has won 10 of 11 games, and Texas A&M-Corpus Christie (6-0/15-3) has won 14 of 15 games but neither the Huskies nor the Islanders have yet to face multiple time defending champ Stephen F. Austin (6-0/13-5).  Incarnate Word (4-1/9-7) is ineligible for the bid, but the Cardinals may have a say in who does, by changing a seed or two.

 

Southwestern Athletic

The SWAC has been a regular in the First Four in recent years.  It looks very possible like the league champ will be headed to Dayton again this year.  Texas Southern (6-0/7-11).  Southern (5-2/13-7) and Jackson State (5-2/10-10) are the top two contenders.  As has been the case in the SWAC in recent years, one of the better league teams, Alcorn State (5-2/7-11) is not eligible for the tournament due to low APR scores.

 

Summit

Maybe it is Peyton Manning’s year, because Omaha 6-1/14-7) leads the league.  The Mavericks will have to hold off a fiesty trio of competitors in South Dakota State (5-2/16-5), IPFW (5-2/16-6), and IUPUI (5-2/9-13).  Our money is on SDSU to win the conference tournament.  The Jackrabbits have the best program in the league.

 

Sun Belt

What will it take for Arkansas-Little Rock (7-1/17-2) to get some respect?  The Trojans won at San Diego State and Tulsa in the pre-conference schedule and have run out to a game and a half lead in the league?  UALR could make it to the Dance with 30 wins and still be a prohibitive underdog in their first game due to lower than deserved seeding.  Texas-Arlington (5-2/14-4) is the chief contender.

 

Western Athletic

The hands-down best team in the league in the last three or four seasons won’t get the opportunity to play for a spot in the Dance.  Grand Canyon (5-0/18-2) is ineligible for a couple more years.  New Mexico State (5-1/13-8) and Cal State Bakersfield (4-1/14-6) are the next best two in line.

 

The League In The Cracks

American Athletic

With SMU ineligible for the tournament, the AAC could very well find itself with just one bid this year, but there are five teams capable of earning at-large bids as of now.  We cannot put a second AAC team in this week’s Field, but we cannot place the league with the definite one-bid only conferences.

Tulsa (5-2/13-6) and Temple (5-2/11-7) lead Connecticut (4-2/14-5) and Central Florida (4-2/10-7) by a half game with Cincinnati (5-3/15-6) lurking close behind.  Memphis (3-3/12-7) is still alive and capable of winning the automatic bid.  Temple upset previously unbeaten SMU yesterday.

 

The Multi-Bid Leagues

We moved one league from possible second bid to definite second bid this week.  The West Coast Conference went from one and maybe another to two definite as of now.

Atlantic Coast

Safe

North Carolina (7-0/18-2)

Louisville (5-1/16-3)

Pittsburgh (5-2/16-3)

Miami (4-2/15-3)

Duke (4-3/15-5)

Virginia (4-3/15-4)

Okay for Now

Notre Dame (5-2/14-5)

Bubble–IN

Syracuse (3-5/13-8)

Bubble–OUT

Clemson (5-2/12-7)

Florida St. (2-5/12-7)

 

Atlantic 10

Safe

Dayton (6-1/16-3)

Okay for Now

—–

Bubble–IN

Virginia Commonwealth (7-0/15-5)

St. Joseph’s (5-1/16-3)

George Washington (4-2/15-4)

Bubble–OUT

Davidon (3-3/11-6)

 

Big 12

Safe

Oklahoma (5-2/16-2)

Kansas (5-2/16-3)

West Virginia (5-2/16-3)

Iowa St. (4-3/15-4)

Baylor (5-2/15-4)

Okay for Now

Texas (4-3/12-7)

Bubble–IN

Texas Tech (2-5/12-6)

Bubble–OUT

Kansas St. (2-5/12-7)

 

Big East

Safe

Villanova (7-1/17-3)

Xavier (5-2/17-2)

Okay for Now

Providence (4-2/17-3)

Bubble–IN

Seton Hall (3-4/13-6)

Butler (2-5/13-6)

Bubble–OUT

Creighton (5-2/14-6)

Georgetown (5-2/12-8)

 

Big Ten

Safe

Iowa (7-0/16-3)

Indiana (7-0/17-3)

Maryland (6-2/17-3)

Michigan (5-2/15-5)

Purdue (5-3/17-4)

Michigan St. (4-4/17-4)

Okay for Now

—–

Bubble–IN

—–

Bubble–OUT

Ohio St. (4-3/12-8)

 

Pac-12

Safe

Oregon (5-2/16-4)

Arizona (4-3/16-4)

USC (4-3/15-5)

Okay for Now

Utah (4-3/15-5)

Colorado (4-3/15-5)

Bubble–IN

Washington (5-2/13-6)

California (4-3/14-6)

UCLA (3-4/12-8)

Bubble–OUT

Stanford (4-3/11-7)

Oregon St. (3-4/12-6)

 

Southeastern

Safe

Texas A&M (7-0/17-2)

Kentucky (5-2/15-4)

Okay for Now

South Carolina (4-2/17-2)

Florida (5-2/13-6)

Bubble–IN

—–

Bubble–OUT

LSU (5-2/12-7)

Georgia (4-3/11-6)

Vanderbilt (3-4/11-8)

Ole Miss (2-5/12-7)

Alabama (1-5/10-8)

 

West Coast

Safe

—–

Okay for Now

St. Mary’s (8-1/17-2)

Bubble–IN

Gonzaga (7-2/15-5)

Bubble–OUT

—–

 

The Field of 68 Seeded

# Team
1 Oklahoma
1 North Carolina
1 Villanova
1 Kansas
2 Iowa
2 Xavier
2 Texas A&M
2 Virginia
3 West Virginia
3 Michigan St.
3 Iowa St.
3 Oregon
4 Maryland
4 Miami (FL.)
4 Louisville
4 Purdue
5 Arizona
5 Kentucky
5 Dayton
5 Duke
6 USC
6 Providence
6 Baylor
6 Indiana
7 Pittsburgh
7 Notre Dame
7 Michigan
7 Texas
8 Utah
8 Florida
8 South Carolina
8 Wichita St.
9 Colorado
9 St. Mary’s
9 California
9 Connecticut
10 George Washington
10 VCU
10 Butler
10 Seton Hall
11 St. Joseph’s
11 Texas Tech
11 Washington
11 Gonzaga
11 Valparaiso
12 Syracuse
12 UCLA
12 Monmouth
12 San Diego St.
12 UALR
13 Chattanooga
13 Hawaii
13 UAB
13 Stony Brook
14 James Madison
14 Northern Illinois
14 Omaha
14 Princeton
15 Belmont
15 Texas A&M-CC
15 North Florida
15 Montana
16 UNC-Asheville
16 New Mexico St.
16 Bucknell
16 Hampton
16 Wagner
16 Texas Southern

Last 4 IN–First Four Games in Dayton

Syracuse vs. UCLA

Gonzaga vs. Washington

First 4 OUT

Cincinnati

Florida St.

LSU

Creighton

Next 4 OUT

Stanford

Boise St.

Evansville

Vanderbilt

 

 

 

March 14, 2015

Bracketology Update–Saturday, March 14, 2015

Happy Pi Day to all Earthlings and the two Martians that regularly patronize this site.  Or was that the two Martins?

We are happy to say that the Bubble has shrunk like a pin popped the core.  At most, just three teams are still hoping against all odds that they will sneak back into the field.  UCLA, Miami, and Temple are the only three teams that can move up into the last 4 in positions.  Temple is still alive for an automatic bid in the AAC.

There are still a few teams out there that can spoil a spot as an upset special.  Connecticut is in the semifinals in the AAC, and the Huskies are a home team in Hartford.  UConn eliminated Cincinnati yesterday and could very well do the same to Tulsa today.  Ryan Boatright and Rodney Purivs shot SMU out of the gym a couple weeks ago, so it would not surprise us if the Huskies win the AAC Tournament and remove one of the Last 4 In from the Dance.

Rhode Island is in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament.  The Rams face Dayton today and if victorious, URI would face Davidson or VCU tomorrow.  There is a small chance a victory today and loss tomorrow could put the Rams on the Bubble.

Wyoming has advanced to the Mountain West Championship against San Diego St.  Should the Cowboys win tonight, they could displace Boise State and keep the MWC at three teams.  However, the Broncos are probably still safe, so a Wyoming win more than likely pops a bubble elsewhere.

What about Auburn?  Forget it!  Kentucky gives Bruce Pearl his first 20-loss season today.  How much of an upset would a War Eagle victory over Calipari, Inc. be?  Even David would bet on the modern day Goliath.  Short of the entire Blue Mist coming down with food poisoning in their pre-game meal, the Wildcats will win this game by more points than the average blood-alcohol content of their fans that will party on Lower Broadway in Nashvegas Saturday night.

The top has been altered quite a bit in the last 24 hours.  Wisconsin can now move up to a number one seed by taking the Big Ten Tournament title, coming at the expense of Duke or Virginia.  Villanova has cinched a top seed.

What about those teams fighting for one of the last spots?  Our resident two dozen plus expert Bracketologists have spoken,  Here are the Bubblers as of Saturday morning.

Last 4 In With Byes (avoiding Dayton and Opening Round)

Indiana

Oklahoma

Purdue

LSU

Last 4 Teams In (to play in Opening Round in Dayton)

12-Ole Miss (#68 and biting their nails)

12-BYU (#67 and biting a couple themselves)

11-Boise St.

11-Temple

First 4 Out (probable #1 Seeds in NIT)

UCLA

Tulsa

Miami

Murray St.

Today’s Power 6 Tournament Picks (+Ivy)

Team              Team           Red White Blue
Kentucky         Auburn           32    20     31
Villanova           Xavier           10     8       9
Arizona           Oregon           11    11     10
Wisconsin       Purdue           13    10      11
Maryland   Michigan St.         -2    -2      -3
Kansas            Iowa St.          -3    -2       1
N. Dame     N. Carolina         -1     -1      -4
Arkansas         Georgia          1      1        2
Harvard           Yale               -1    -1       -2

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