The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 30, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:29 pm
Date1/30/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1PurdueAlabamaTennesseeHouston
2KansasArizonaUCLAArizona
3BaylorKansas St.VirginiaIowa St.
4MarquetteXavierTCUGonzaga
5ConnecticutSaint Mary’sRutgersIndiana
6San Diego St.IllinoisProvidenceMiami (Fla)
7AuburnNew MexicoDukeNorth Carolina
8Florida AtlanticCreightonMissouriNorth Carolina St.
9Boise St.NorthwesternIowaMichigan St.
10MemphisWest VirginiaArkansasMaryland
11USCClemsonCharlestonNevadaPenn St.
12Kent St.Oral RobertsLibertyKentuckyPittsburgh
13LouisianaSaint LouisDrakeUCSB
14Utah ValleyCornellFurmanColgate
15SienaEastern WashingtonYoungstown St.UNC Asheville
16SE LouisianaVermontUT-MartinMD Eastern ShoreSouthernFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Arkansas, Maryland, USC, and Clemson

Last 4 In: Nevada, Penn State, Kentucky, and Pittsburgh

First 4 Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Arizona State, and Utah State

Next 4 Out: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech

January 27, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:25 am
Date1/27/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1PurdueAlabamaHoustonTennessee
2ArizonaKansasTexasUCLA
3Iowa St.Kansas St.VirginiaXavier
4GonzagaBaylorTCUMarquette
5ConnecticutAuburnRutgersSaint Mary’s
6Miami (Fla)San Diego St.ProvidenceIndiana
7IllinoisNew MexicoDukeFlorida Atlantic
8North CarolinaMichigan St.ArkansasNorth Carolina St.
9MemphisCreightonBoise St.Clemson
10MissouriIowaNorthwesternMaryland
11USCNevadaCharlestonKentuckyArizona St.
12Oral RobertsKent St.VCUWisconsinWest Virginia
13Southern Miss.LibertyUCSBSouthern Illinois
14SeattlePrincetonColgateUNC Greensboro
15E. WashingtonSienaVermontUNC Asheville
16Northern KentuckySE LouisianaAlcorn St.UM Eastern ShoreUT-MartinFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Northwestern, Maryland, USC, Nevada

Last 4 In: Kentucky, Arizona State, Wisconsin, West Virginia

First 4 Out: Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Utah State

Next 4 Out: Oklahoma State, Penn State, Utah, Virginia Tech

January 23, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:15 am
Date1/23/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1PurdueAlabamaKansasHouston
2TennesseeTexasUCLAArizona
3Kansas St.Iowa St.VirginiaConnecticut
4GonzagaTCUXavierMarquette
5BaylorAuburnRutgersMiami (Fla)
6DukeSaint Mary’sSan Diego St.Providence
7North CarolinaIndianaNew MexicoIllinois
8North Carolina St.ArkansasFlorida AtlanticMichigan St.
9IowaBoise St.ClemsonCreighton
10Ohio St.MissouriWisconsinCharleston
11MemphisNorthwesternArizona St.West VirginiaMaryland
12Kent St.VCUOral RobertsPittsburghPenn St.
13LouisianaLibertySeattleBelmont
14UC Santa BarbaraSienaPrincetonColgate
15SamfordNorthern KentuckyUMass LowellEastern Washington
16UNC AshevilleUT-MartinSouthernNicholls St.Md. Eastern ShoreSt. Francis PA

Last 4 Byes: Wisconsin, Memphis, Northwestern, Arizona St.

Last 4 In: West Virginia, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Penn St.

First 4 Out: USC, Nevada, Utah St., Oklahoma St.

Next 4 Out: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

January 20, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:36 pm



Date1/20/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1PurdueHoustonKansasAlabama
2UCLATennesseeKansas St.Iowa St.
3TexasArizonaConnecticutGonzaga
4VirginiaXavierMarquetteBaylor
5TCUAuburnMiami (Fla)Rutgers
6San Diego St.DukeSaint Mary’sProvidence
7North Carolina St.ArkansasIllinoisMichigan St.
8New MexicoNorth CarolinaMissouriIowa
9IndianaBoise St.Arizona St.Creighton
10Florida AtlanticClemsonWisconsinWest Virginia
11CharlestonPittsburghMemphisMarylandNorthwestern
12Kent St.Oral RobertsDaytonOhio St.Penn St.
13SeattleMarshallSouthern IllinoisIona
14LibertyUC Santa BarbaraCornellColgate
15UMass LowellSamfordYoungstown St.Eastern Washington
16LongwoodSIU EdwardsvilleSouthernTexas A&M-CCMorgan St.Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Wisconsin, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Memphis

Last 4 In: Maryland, Northwestern, Ohio St., Penn St.

First 4 Out: Utah St., Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Texas A&M

Next 4 Out: Nevada, Central Florida, USC, Seton Hall

Note: The last 4 teams in the field this week are all Big Ten teams. These would be First Four teams playing in Dayton, but the NCAA Selection Committee will not put four Big Ten teams in this round.

January 16, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:57 am
Date1/16/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1KansasPurdueHoustonAlabama
2UCLATennesseeTexasConnecticut
3GonzagaXavierArizonaKansas St.
4VirginiaIowa St.TCUMiami (Fla)
5MarquetteBaylorRutgersAuburn
6ArkansasDukeSan Diego St.Providence
7Saint Mary’sIllinoisNorth Carolina St.North Carolina
8New MexicoClemsonMissouriMichigan St.
9Florida AtlanticIowaOhio St.Arizona St.
10WisconsinCharlestonIndianaCreighton
11MemphisMarylandPittsburghBoise St.Penn St.
12Kent St.DaytonOral RobertsNorthwesternWest Virginia
13SeattleMarshallIonaBelmont
14LibertyUC-IrvinePrincetonColgate
15Youngstown St.Eastern WashingtonSamfordSIU Edwardsville
16LongwoodUMBCSouthernTexas A&M-CCMorgan St.Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Creighton, Memphis, Maryland, Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Boise St., Penn St., Northwestern, West Virginia

First 4 Out: Nevada, Mississippi St., Oklahoma, Virginia Tech

Next 4 Out: Utah St., Wake Forest, Kentucky, USC

Note: The predictions made in PiRate Ratings Bracketology are our opinions on what we believe the NCAA Selection Committee will choose based on the criteria they have at their disposal.

January 13, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:30 am
Date1/13/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1KansasPurdueHoustonAlabama
2TennesseeUCLAConnecticutArizona
3TexasKansas St.GonzagaXavier
4Iowa St.MarquetteVirginiaMiami (Fl)
5ArkansasSan Diego St.TCUDuke
6BaylorAuburnRutgersProvidence
7Saint Mary’sOhio St.MissouriIllinois
8North CarolinaNorth Carolina St.Michigan St.Florida Atlantic
9WisconsinNew MexicoArizona St.Maryland
10West VirginiaNorthwesternCharlestonClemson
11CreightonUtah St.Penn St.IowaIndiana
12Kent St.DaytonUtah ValleyMemphisMississippi St.
13IonaOral RobertsLibertyIndiana St.
14UC-IrvinePrincetonUMass LowellTroy
15SamfordColgateLongwoodSIU Edwardsville
16Eastern WashingtonYoungstown St.SouthernTexas A&M-CCFairleigh DickinsonNorfolk St.

Last 4 Byes: Clemson, Creighton, Utah St., Penn St.

Last 4 In: Iowa, Indiana, Memphis, Mississippi St.

First 4 Out: Virginia Tech, Boise St., Pittsburgh, Central Florida

Next 4 Out: Nevada, Wake Forest, Kentucky, Oklahoma St.

December 30, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology–Friday, December 30, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:41 am
Date12/30/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1ConnecticutPurdueHoustonTennessee
2KansasArizonaUCLAAlabama
3BaylorGonzagaVirginiaTexas
4West VirginiaDukeWisconsinIndiana
5ArkansasMiami (Fla.)Ohio St.Xavier
6MarylandAuburnVirginia TechMarquette
7North CarolinaSan Diego St.MIssouriIllinois
8New MexicoMississippi St.KentuckyTCU
9MemphisTexas TechNorth Carolina St.Kansas St.
10CreightonPenn St.Arizona St.Iowa St.
11Michigan St.UABOklahomaFlorida AtlanticSaint Mary’sRutgers
12CharlestonKent St.IonaDayton
13Indiana St.YaleUC-IrvineOral Roberts
14James MadisonUMass LowellLibertyFurman
15Grand CanyonYoungstown St.Montana St.Colgate
16Northwestern St.LongwoodGramblingSIU-EdwardsvilleNorfolk St.Wagner

Last 4 Byes: Penn St., Arizona St., Iowa St., Michigan St.,

Last 4 In: Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, Saint Mary’s, Rutgers

#16-Seeds in First Four: Grambling, SIUE, Norfolk St., Wagner

Top Dozen Waiting In The Wings (alphabetically)

Boise St.
Colorado
LSU
Northwestern
Oklahoma St.
Pittsburgh
Providence
St. John’s
UNLV
USC
Utah
Utah St.

March 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings Final Bracketology Prediction

Date3/14/2021FINAL
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorIllinoisMichigan
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaHouston
3Oklahoma St.ArkansasKansasTexas
4West VirginiaPurdueVirginiaFlorida St.
5TennesseeVillanovaCreightonTexas Tech
6ColoradoUSCLSUMissouri
7BYUOklahomaOregonClemson
8ConnecticutSan Diego St.WisconsinFlorida
9Virginia TechLoyola (Chi.)Georgia TechNorth Carolina
10RutgersSt. BonaventureMarylandVCU
11LouisvilleMichigan St.UCLASyracuseUtah St.Drake
12Oregon St.GeorgetownNorth TexasWinthrop
13Ohio ULibertyUNCGUCSB
14ColgateMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.DrexelGrand CanyonIona
16Oral RobertsHartfordNorfolk St.Mount St. Mary’sTexas SouthernAppalachian St.

1st Four Out

69Wichita St.
70Colorado St.
71Saint Louis
72Boise St.

1st 4 Games

11 UCLA vs. 11 Drake

11 Syracuse vs. 11 Utah St.

16 Norfolk St. vs. 16 Mount St. Mary’s

16 Texas Southern vs. 16 Appalachian St.

March 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:43 am
Date3/13/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaOklahoma St.
3HoustonArkansasKansasTexas
4Florida St.PurdueWest VirginiaVirginia
5TennesseeCreightonColoradoVillanova
6OregonUSCTexas TechMissouri
7LSUOklahomaWisconsinClemson
8BYUFloridaLoyola (Chi.)North Carolina
9RutgersSan Diego St.Virginia TechConnecticut
10St. BonaventureGeorgia TechVCUMaryland
11Wichita St.Michigan St.UCLALouisville
12Western Ky.WinthropSyracuseDrakeUtah St.Ole Miss
13UCSBLibertyUNCGColgate
14BuffaloMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.Grand CanyonOral RobertsDrexel
16IonaMount St. Mary’sAppalachian St.HartfordNorfolk St.Prairie View A&M

First Four Out–Alternates

69 Saint Louis

70 Colorado St.

71 Boise St.

72 Xavier

Potential Bubble Busters: Memphis. Georgetown, and Oregon St.

March 11, 2021

A Quick Look At The Bubble

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:39 am

Thursday, March 11 Prior To Start of Today’s Games

It’s just a little more than 80 hours until the Selection Sunday bids are announced. We will have our final bracketology Sunday around 4 PM EST, unless there is a final tournament game that would affect the seeding.

As of this morning, here is our look at the teams in the gray area, on the bubble.

Let’s start with the teams that we believe are currently in the field if the bids were awarded today, but that are vulnerable to being bumped if other teams play their way into the field.

Louisville: The Cardinals lost in their first ACC Tournament game to fellow bubbler Duke. The Cardinals took a 6-spot dive in the Net Ratings after the loss, and they are in jeopardy of falling out of the tournament if a host of teams play their way in. At 13-7, they finished the season 4-6. UL won just one Quad 1 game, but they were 6-1 in Quad 2 games. Their chances of making the field are still about 85-90%, but they could find themselves playing that extra at-large play-in game.

Xavier: The Musketeers are in a much more precarious position following their immediate Big East Tournament ouster. Xavier fell to 62 in the Net, and they too finished 4-6 after starting 9-2. If a couple of teams still playing advance a couple rounds in their tournaments, it could be lights out for the Musketeers. Their chances of making the field are close to 50-50 today.

Drake: The Bulldogs lost to Loyola in the Arch Madness Championship Game to finish 23-4 with two losses to the Ramblers. A #45 Net with a 6-2 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, including one win over Loyola should be enough to keep Drake in a safe spot in this field. Their chances of making the field are about 95%.

Wichita St.: The Selection Committee does not compare teams within the same conference in theory, but when looking at each team’s resumes, they are basically forced to look at who they beat and didn’t beat, and obviously more games are played in-conference, especially this season. Wichita St. is rated behind Memphis in the Net, and their 13-4 record includes a 9-0 mark against Quad 3 & 4 teams. On the plus side, the Shockers finished 9-1 with a win over Houston. The Shockers need to make it to at least the semifinals of the AAC Tournament; a loss to the USF-Temple winner would really jeopardize their tournament hopes. On the good side, Wichita looks to have an express seeding to the AAC Championship Game, so we give them a better than 50-50 chance to Dance.

Syracuse: Yesterday’s pasting of potential Bubble team North Carolina St. has given the Orangemen a legitimate shot to make the field with an upset of Virginia today. SU is now at 39 in the Net. A 1-6 Quad 1 record is poor, but the 5-1 Quad 2 has the Orangemen in position to move into the at-large positive category with a win today. A loss to the Cavs would not totally eliminate SU, depending on what happens in other tournaments. We give SU a 55% chance of making the field. If they stay in the top 40 of the Net, they should get in.

Boise St.: The Mountain West Conference has four teams competing for bids. There might be three awarded. Boise State has 2 Quad 1 wins, and their Net is currently 43. A win over Nevada today is mandatory. If they get that win, then a decent showing against San Diego State tomorrow should be satisfactory. We give BSU a 55-60% chance of making the field.

Colorado St.: Wins at San Diego St. and at Utah St. had the Rams at the top of the MWC in January, but CSU has swooned since and is in danger of playing themselves out of the field. With a Net of 50, a quarterfinal round loss to Fresno St. today would be a dagger in their hearts or dancing shoes. The Rams must win today, and then they might have to beat the Utah St.-UNLV winner tomorrow. If they play USU, it could be an eliminator game.

UCLA: The Bruins are March Madness royalty. The humans on the Selection Committee will find a way to justify placing them in the Dance. A quarterfinal win in the Pac-12 Tournament would more than suffice along with their moving into the top 40 in the Net. UCLA has a 75-80% chance to make the field.

Michigan St.: The Spartans will be hurt if the Net Ratings prove to be as important as the first 16-team pre-selection made by the Committee a month ago. MSU is a low 67 in the Net, but they are coming off a win over 1-seed line Michigan and have 5 Quad 1 wins. The Big Ten schedule, along with a win at Duke, should be enough for Sparty to celebrate with a Dance ticket on Sunday. A win over Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament sets it in stone.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have work to do. They would not be in the field if the Selections were made today, but Ole Miss has a path to get in. They absolutely must defeat South Carolina today and then will have to upset LSU tomorrow to raise their Net of 53 up to the low 40’s at worst. Two wins over Missouri and one over Tennessee are not enough to warrant their selection. Their chances of making the Dance are around 30%.

Utah St.: The Aggies are just outside the Field today, but they swept San Diego State and have a resume ready to move them into the field with a win over UNLV today and then a win over Colorado State in a knockout game tomorrow. If they don’t win two games, they lose out.

SMU: The Mustangs need a lot of help to get in. Teams above them on this list have to play their way out of the field, and SMU needs to do damage in the AAC Tournament, maybe make it to the Championship Game against Houston (not Memphis). A 55 Net is too low to warrant a bid. Their chance to get in is about 20%.

Memphis: It’s awful that the only a desperation heave at the basket by an out of control Houston player could keep the Tigers out of the field. Memphis had a chance to move up into the 40’s in the Net and now sits at 52, which is not good enough. Memphis will have to make it to the Championship Game of the AAC Tournament and face Wichita State in that game to still have an at-large shot. More realistically, the Tigers may need to qualify automatically at this point.

Seton Hall & St. John’s: These two teams face off today in the Big East Tournament. The winner stays alive, while the loser can only think about NIT Selection. The winner still has work to do, maybe needing another tournament win, especially over top-seed Villanova. If Georgetown beats the Hoyas today, then the winner of the SH-SJ game must beat GU tomorrow. St. John’s might still need one more win after that.

Duke: The Eastern equivalent of UCLA, the Blue Devils are March Madness royalty. Like a heavyweight champion in a boxing match, if it goes 15 rounds, the champion will at the least win on a split decision. Duke will qualify for that split decision today if they beat Florida St. The Committee will invent the reason to leapfrog the Blue Devils over eight teams to get them in the Field. A loss today would make them 13-12 with a Net in the 50’s, so they need that win today.

Saint Louis: The Billikens were greatly harmed by a multiple-game cancellation in the regular season. Wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure in the regular season are not going to be enough, and SLU lost to the Bonnies in the A-10 Tournament. It’s not going to be a happy Sunday in the Gateway to the West.

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