2013 Big 12 Conference Preview
Once thought a dead league, the Big 12 received a reprieve and has thrived these last two years. The league produced a Heisman Trophy winner in 2011, and placed nine of its ten members in bowls last year. In 2013, it could produce a National Championship Game participant.
This league remains stable this year after the departures of Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, and Texas A&M, and the arrivals of TCU and West Virginia in the last two seasons. The nine-game conference schedule guarantees that all two-team ties are easily broken without having to use several tiebreakers.
Coach Mack Brown welcomes back to Texas the most experience squad he’s ever fielded in Austin. The Longhorns had to rebuild for a couple of years, but they are poised to go on a big run this year with 19 starters returning to the first team offense and defense. The Longhorns will be a juggernaut on the offensive side of the ball. Even though their defense might give up 24 points per game, the offense should average more than 40 and outscore every opponent on the regular season schedule.
Three years in a row: That’s the current streak in Stillwater, Oklahoma, for Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys. OSU has averaged in excess of 40 points per game three years running (and passing), and the pokes should make it four in a row with the return of quarterback Clint Chelf and most of his key receivers. Can an offense that has improved its total yardage output per game from 520 to 546 to 547 in the last three seasons improve yet again? Yes, it can top 550 this year, and OSU could even challenge the 50 points per game barrier. The key game is at Texas on November 16, and it could be the big one of the season.
TCU may have as much talent this year as they had in 2010, when the Horned Frogs ran the table in the Mountain West Conference and won the Rose Bowl. However, in this year’s Big 12, they are no better than third best and possibly fourth best. The defense could lead the conference in fewest points and yards allowed, but this is a league where offense rules. The Horned Frogs averaged 27.2 points per game in league play, and that was good enough for only eighth best in the league. That number will have to jump by a touchdown if TCU is to challenge the two powers. It doesn’t help that they must play Oklahoma St. and Texas in back-to-back weeks in October. Additionally, they face Oklahoma in Norman, and TCU figures to be an underdog in all three games. Throw in an opening game against LSU at Cowboys Stadium, and it looks like a four-loss season in Ft. Worth.
Oklahoma has endured back-to-back three loss seasons, and the Sooners may be looking at another one as well. The defense must reload with the loss of four of the top five tacklers, including the top run defender and the top pass defender. The OU offense may take a small step backward this year, as it lost its starting quarterback and top two receivers. Fret not Sooner fans, for you rebuilding means averaging 30 points and 425 yards per game.
Baylor looks for its fourth consecutive winning season under Art Briles. The Bears survived the loss of RGIII and Kendall Wright and emerged with eight victories in 2012. Bryce Petty is the new quarterback, and he should top 4,000 yards passing in his first year as a starter. The Bears return two backs capable of topping 1,000 yards rushing, but the offensive line needs reworking. Baylor will score a lot of points again this season, but the defense will give up a lot of points as well. It will be very exciting in Waco, but this unit will just scrape by with enough wins to stay above .500.
Kansas St. will be lucky to stay bowl eligible this year after the defense left the building. Six of the top seven tacklers must be replaced on the defense, and the offense must replace Collin Klein at quarterback. Coach Bill Snyder relies on a lot of junior college talent, so his teams frequently have a lot of upperclassmen. Thanks to a schedule that gives the Wildcats three guaranteed non-conference wins to start the season, KSU should find a way to stay bowl eligible.
Texas Tech breaks in a new head coach, as former Red Raider quarterback Kliff Kingsbury returns to Lubbock after running the offense of Johnny Football U in College Station last year. Kingsbury will return the Red Raiders to the Air Raid offense after former coach Tommy Tuberville tried to make TTU Auburn west. Look for the offense to struggle a bit and fall under .500 this year, but Kingsbury will soon have the Red Raiders scoring points like they did under Mike Leach.
West Virginia has a bigger rebuilding job to face than Texas Tech. The Mountaineers cannot replace Geno Smith and his 4200+ yards and TD/Int ratio of 42/6! Add the losses of two receivers that both grabbed more than 100 passes and combined for more than 2,900 receiving yards and 37 touchdowns, and the Mountaineers will see their offense fall by more than 10 points per game this year. This team only went 7-6 last year, so hopes for a winning season are very dim in 2013.
Paul Rhoads has done great work at Iowa St., leading the Cyclones to three bowls in his four seasons in Ames. If he can squeeze six wins out of this team, then the NCAA needs to name the National Coach of the Year Award, the Rhoads Award. ISU must rebuild on both sides of the ball, and with this conference’s offensive fireworks, it could get ugly several Saturdays this fall. Of the bottom four teams, ISU hosts Kansas, but must play at Texas Tech and West Virginia. Expect at least nine and possibly ten losses this year.
Kansas has nowhere to go but up. Since going 12-1 with an Orange Bowl win in 2007, the Jayhawks have seen their win number drop every year since then (8, 7, 5, 3, 2, and 1). While it is still mathematically possible that the number could drop again, we don’t see that happening. Second year coach Charlie Weis should find a way to lead KU to a very modest improvement and put an end to the 21-game losing streak in league play.
Pre-season PiRate Ratings
Big 12 Conference |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Texas |
0-0 |
0-0 |
127.3 |
116.2 |
127.8 |
Oklahoma St. |
0-0 |
0-0 |
122.0 |
111.2 |
122.7 |
T C U |
0-0 |
0-0 |
118.0 |
115.1 |
118.9 |
Oklahoma |
0-0 |
0-0 |
115.8 |
111.6 |
115.2 |
Baylor |
0-0 |
0-0 |
112.5 |
103.2 |
112.4 |
Kansas St. |
0-0 |
0-0 |
111.9 |
104.5 |
110.8 |
Texas Tech |
0-0 |
0-0 |
104.1 |
96.6 |
102.9 |
West Virginia |
0-0 |
0-0 |
102.1 |
97.4 |
101.1 |
Iowa St. |
0-0 |
0-0 |
99.7 |
92.8 |
98.3 |
Kansas |
0-0 |
0-0 |
93.9 |
91.5 |
92.8 |
|
|
|
|||
League Averages |
110.7 |
104.0 |
110.3 |
2013 Official Preseason Media Poll
Pos |
Team |
Points |
1st Place |
1 |
Oklahoma St. |
365 |
15 |
2 |
Oklahoma |
355 |
8 |
3 |
T C U |
347 |
9 |
4 |
Texas |
337 |
8 |
5 |
Baylor |
282 |
2 |
6 |
Kansas St. |
240 |
1 |
7 |
Texas Tech |
161 |
0 |
8 |
West Virginia |
126 |
0 |
9 |
Iowa St. |
96 |
0 |
10 |
Kansas |
56 |
0 |
2013 Preseason Media All-Conference Team
Offense |
||
Pos | Player | School |
QB | Casey Pachall | TCU |
RB | Lache Seastrunk | Baylor |
RB | John Hubert | Kansas State |
WR | Josh Stewart | Oklahoma State |
WR | Eric Ward | Texas Tech |
TE | Jace Amaro | Texas Tech |
OL | Cyril Richardson | Baylor |
OL | Cornelius Lucas | Kansas State |
OL | Gabe Ikard | Oklahoma |
OL | Trey Hopkins | Texas |
OL | Le’Raven Clark | Texas Tech |
Defense |
||
Pos | Player | School |
DL | Devonte Fields | TCU |
DL | Calvin Barnett | Oklahoma State |
DL | Jackson Jeffcoat | Texas |
DL | Kerry Hyder | Texas Tech |
LB | Bryce Hager | Baylor |
LB | Jordan Hicks | Texas |
LB | Shaun Lewis | Oklahoma State |
DB | Ty Zimmerman | Kansas State |
DB | Jason Verrett | TCU |
DB | Aaron Colvin | Oklahoma |
DB | Quandre Diggs | Texas |
Special Teams |
||
Pos | Player | School |
K | Jaden Oberkrom | TCU |
P | Kirby Van Der Kamp | Iowa State |
KR | Tyler Lockett | Kansas State |
PR | Tramaine Thompson | Kansas State |
PiRate Ratings Summary
About Grades
93-100 A+
86-92 A
79-85 A-
72-78 B+
65-71 B
58-64 B-
51-57 C+
44-50 C
37-43 C-
30-36 D
0-29 F
About Predictions
Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in. The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.
Team |
Baylor Bears |
||||||
Head Coach |
Art Briles |
||||||
Colors |
Green and Gold |
||||||
City |
Waco, TX |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
4-5 |
||||||
Overall |
8-5 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
92 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
93 |
||||||
Run Defense |
67 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
59 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
112.5 |
||||||
Mean |
103.2 |
||||||
Bias |
112.4 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
32 |
||||||
Mean |
46 |
||||||
Bias |
32 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
4-5 |
||||||
Overall |
7-5 |
Team |
Iowa St. Cyclones |
||||||
Head Coach |
Paul Rhoads |
||||||
Colors |
Cardinal and Gold |
||||||
City |
Ames, IA |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
3-6 |
||||||
Overall |
6-7 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
64 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
67 |
||||||
Run Defense |
58 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
68 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
99.7 |
||||||
Mean |
92.8 |
||||||
Bias |
98.3 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
59 |
||||||
Mean |
92 |
||||||
Bias |
70 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
1-8 |
||||||
Overall |
2-10 |
Team |
Kansas Jayhawks |
||||||
Head Coach |
Charlie Weis |
||||||
Colors |
Crimson and Blue |
||||||
City |
Lawrence, KS |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
0-9 |
||||||
Overall |
1-11 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
76 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
62 |
||||||
Run Defense |
60 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
42 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
93.9 |
||||||
Mean |
91.5 |
||||||
Bias |
92.8 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
82 |
||||||
Mean |
99 |
||||||
Bias |
87 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
1-8 |
||||||
Overall |
3-9 |
Team |
Kansas St. Wildcats |
||||||
Head Coach |
Bill Snyder |
||||||
Colors |
Royal Purple (and Silver) |
||||||
City |
Manhattan, KS |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
8-1 |
||||||
Overall |
11-2 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
90 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
64 |
||||||
Run Defense |
81 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
77 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
111.9 |
||||||
Mean |
104.5 |
||||||
Bias |
110.8 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
33 |
||||||
Mean |
42 |
||||||
Bias |
34 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
5-4 |
||||||
Overall |
8-4 |
Team |
Oklahoma Sooners |
||||||
Head Coach |
Bob Stoops |
||||||
Colors |
Crimson and Cream |
||||||
City |
Norman, OK |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
8-1 |
||||||
Overall |
10-3 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
83 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
89 |
||||||
Run Defense |
74 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
76 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
115.8 |
||||||
Mean |
111.6 |
||||||
Bias |
115.2 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
22 |
||||||
Mean |
26 |
||||||
Bias |
24 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
7-2 |
||||||
Overall |
9-3 |
Team |
Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
||||||
Head Coach |
Mike Gundy |
||||||
Colors |
Orange and Black |
||||||
City |
Stillwater, OK |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
5-4 |
||||||
Overall |
8-5 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
79 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
99 |
||||||
Run Defense |
87 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
81 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
122.0 |
||||||
Mean |
111.2 |
||||||
Bias |
122.7 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
5 |
||||||
Mean |
28 |
||||||
Bias |
5 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
8-1 |
||||||
Overall |
11-1 |
Team |
Texas Longhorns |
||||||
Head Coach |
Mack Brown |
||||||
Colors |
Burnt Orange and White |
||||||
City |
Austin |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
5-4 |
||||||
Overall |
9-4 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
93 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
95 |
||||||
Run Defense |
91 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
90 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
127.3 |
||||||
Mean |
116.2 |
||||||
Bias |
127.8 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
3 |
||||||
Mean |
8 |
||||||
Bias |
3 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
9-0 |
||||||
Overall |
12-0 |
Team |
T C U Horned Frogs |
||||||
Head Coach |
Gary Patterson |
||||||
Colors |
Purple and White |
||||||
City |
Ft. Worth, TX |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
4-5 |
||||||
Overall |
7-6 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
82 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
76 |
||||||
Run Defense |
92 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
84 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
118.0 |
||||||
Mean |
115.1 |
||||||
Bias |
118.9 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
15 |
||||||
Mean |
13 |
||||||
Bias |
14 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
6-3 |
||||||
Overall |
8-4 |
Team |
Texas Tech Red Raiders |
||||||
Head Coach |
Kliff Kingsbury |
||||||
Colors |
Red and Black |
||||||
City |
Lubbock, TX |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
4-5 |
||||||
Overall |
8-5 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
57 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
86 |
||||||
Run Defense |
71 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
60 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
104.1 |
||||||
Mean |
96.6 |
||||||
Bias |
102.9 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
45 |
||||||
Mean |
78 |
||||||
Bias |
45 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
2-7 |
||||||
Overall |
5-7 |
Team |
West Virginia Mountaineers |
||||||
Head Coach |
Dan Holgersen |
||||||
Colors |
Old Gold and Blue |
||||||
City |
Morgantown, WV |
||||||
2012 Record | |||||||
Conference |
4-5 |
||||||
Overall |
7-6 |
||||||
Grades | |||||||
Run Offense |
63 |
||||||
Pass Offense |
83 |
||||||
Run Defense |
65 |
||||||
Pass Defense |
56 |
||||||
Ratings | |||||||
PiRate |
102.1 |
||||||
Mean |
97.4 |
||||||
Bias |
101.1 |
||||||
Rankings | |||||||
PiRate |
47 |
||||||
Mean |
72 |
||||||
Bias |
51 |
||||||
Prediction | |||||||
Conference |
2-7 |
||||||
Overall |
4-8 |