2013 Big 12 Conference Preview

2013 Big 12 Conference Preview

 

Once thought a dead league, the Big 12 received a reprieve and has thrived these last two years.  The league produced a Heisman Trophy winner in 2011, and placed nine of its ten members in bowls last year.  In 2013, it could produce a National Championship Game participant.

 

This league remains stable this year after the departures of Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, and Texas A&M, and the arrivals of TCU and West Virginia in the last two seasons.  The nine-game conference schedule guarantees that all two-team ties are easily broken without having to use several tiebreakers.

 

Coach Mack Brown welcomes back to Texas the most experience squad he’s ever fielded in Austin.  The Longhorns had to rebuild for a couple of years, but they are poised to go on a big run this year with 19 starters returning to the first team offense and defense.  The Longhorns will be a juggernaut on the offensive side of the ball.  Even though their defense might give up 24 points per game, the offense should average more than 40 and outscore every opponent on the regular season schedule.

 

Three years in a row:  That’s the current streak in Stillwater, Oklahoma, for Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys.  OSU has averaged in excess of 40 points per game three years running (and passing), and the pokes should make it four in a row with the return of quarterback Clint Chelf and most of his key receivers.  Can an offense that has improved its total yardage output per game from 520 to 546 to 547 in the last three seasons improve yet again?  Yes, it can top 550 this year, and OSU could even challenge the 50 points per game barrier.  The key game is at Texas on November 16, and it could be the big one of the season.

 

TCU may have as much talent this year as they had in 2010, when the Horned Frogs ran the table in the Mountain West Conference and won the Rose Bowl.  However, in this year’s Big 12, they are no better than third best and possibly fourth best.  The defense could lead the conference in fewest points and yards allowed, but this is a league where offense rules.  The Horned Frogs averaged 27.2 points per game in league play, and that was good enough for only eighth best in the league.  That number will have to jump by a touchdown if TCU is to challenge the two powers.  It doesn’t help that they must play Oklahoma St. and Texas in back-to-back weeks in October.  Additionally, they face Oklahoma in Norman, and TCU figures to be an underdog in all three games.  Throw in an opening game against LSU at Cowboys Stadium, and it looks like a four-loss season in Ft. Worth.

 

Oklahoma has endured back-to-back three loss seasons, and the Sooners may be looking at another one as well.  The defense must reload with the loss of four of the top five tacklers, including the top run defender and the top pass defender.  The OU offense may take a small step backward this year, as it lost its starting quarterback and top two receivers.  Fret not Sooner fans, for you rebuilding means averaging 30 points and 425 yards per game.

 

Baylor looks for its fourth consecutive winning season under Art Briles.  The Bears survived the loss of RGIII and Kendall Wright and emerged with eight victories in 2012.  Bryce Petty is the new quarterback, and he should top 4,000 yards passing in his first year as a starter.  The Bears return two backs capable of topping 1,000 yards rushing, but the offensive line needs reworking.  Baylor will score a lot of points again this season, but the defense will give up a lot of points as well.  It will be very exciting in Waco, but this unit will just scrape by with enough wins to stay above .500.

 

Kansas St. will be lucky to stay bowl eligible this year after the defense left the building.  Six of the top seven tacklers must be replaced on the defense, and the offense must replace Collin Klein at quarterback.  Coach Bill Snyder relies on a lot of junior college talent, so his teams frequently have a lot of upperclassmen.  Thanks to a schedule that gives the Wildcats three guaranteed non-conference wins to start the season, KSU should find a way to stay bowl eligible.

 

Texas Tech breaks in a new head coach, as former Red Raider quarterback Kliff Kingsbury returns to Lubbock after running the offense of Johnny Football U in College Station last year.  Kingsbury will return the Red Raiders to the Air Raid offense after former coach Tommy Tuberville tried to make TTU Auburn west.  Look for the offense to struggle a bit and fall under .500 this year, but Kingsbury will soon have the Red Raiders scoring points like they did under Mike Leach.

 

West Virginia has a bigger rebuilding job to face than Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers cannot replace Geno Smith and his 4200+ yards and TD/Int ratio of 42/6!  Add the losses of two receivers that both grabbed more than 100 passes and combined for more than 2,900 receiving yards and 37 touchdowns, and the Mountaineers will see their offense fall by more than 10 points per game this year.  This team only went 7-6 last year, so hopes for a winning season are very dim in 2013.

 

Paul Rhoads has done great work at Iowa St., leading the Cyclones to three bowls in his four seasons in Ames.  If he can squeeze six wins out of this team, then the NCAA needs to name the National Coach of the Year Award, the Rhoads Award.  ISU must rebuild on both sides of the ball, and with this conference’s offensive fireworks, it could get ugly several Saturdays this fall.  Of the bottom four teams, ISU hosts Kansas, but must play at Texas Tech and West Virginia.  Expect at least nine and possibly ten losses this year.

 

Kansas has nowhere to go but up.  Since going 12-1 with an Orange Bowl win in 2007, the Jayhawks have seen their win number drop every year since then (8, 7, 5, 3, 2, and 1).  While it is still mathematically possible that the number could drop again, we don’t see that happening.  Second year coach Charlie Weis should find a way to lead KU to a very modest improvement and put an end to the 21-game losing streak in league play.

 

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Big 12 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Texas	0-0	0-0	127.3	116.2	127.8
Oklahoma St.	0-0	0-0	122.0	111.2	122.7
T C U	0-0	0-0	118.0	115.1	118.9
Oklahoma	0-0	0-0	115.8	111.6	115.2
Baylor	0-0	0-0	112.5	103.2	112.4
Kansas St.	0-0	0-0	111.9	104.5	110.8
Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	104.1	96.6	102.9
West Virginia	0-0	0-0	102.1	97.4	101.1
Iowa St.	0-0	0-0	99.7	92.8	98.3
Kansas	0-0	0-0	93.9	91.5	92.8
League Averages			110.7	104.0	110.3

 

2013 Official Preseason Media Poll

Pos	Team	Points	1st Place
1	Oklahoma St.	365	15
2	Oklahoma	355	8
3	T C U	347	9
4	Texas	337	8
5	Baylor	282	2
6	Kansas St.	240	1
7	Texas Tech	161	0
8	West Virginia	126	0
9	Iowa St.	96	0
10	Kansas	56	0

 

2013 Preseason Media All-Conference Team

 

Offense
Pos	Player	School
QB	Casey Pachall	TCU
RB	Lache Seastrunk	Baylor
RB	John Hubert	Kansas State
WR	Josh Stewart	Oklahoma State
WR	Eric Ward	Texas Tech
TE	Jace Amaro	Texas Tech
OL	Cyril Richardson	Baylor
OL	Cornelius Lucas	Kansas State
OL	Gabe Ikard	Oklahoma
OL	Trey Hopkins	Texas
OL	Le’Raven Clark	Texas Tech
Defense
Pos	Player	School
DL	Devonte Fields	TCU
DL	Calvin Barnett	Oklahoma State
DL	Jackson Jeffcoat	Texas
DL	Kerry Hyder	Texas Tech
LB	Bryce Hager	Baylor
LB	Jordan Hicks	Texas
LB	Shaun Lewis	Oklahoma State
DB	Ty Zimmerman	Kansas State
DB	Jason Verrett	TCU
DB	Aaron Colvin	Oklahoma
DB	Quandre Diggs	Texas
Special Teams
Pos	Player	School
K	Jaden Oberkrom	TCU
P	Kirby Van Der Kamp	Iowa State
KR	Tyler Lockett	Kansas State
PR	Tramaine Thompson	Kansas State

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team	Baylor Bears
Head Coach	Art Briles
Colors	Green and Gold
City	Waco, TX
2012 Record
Conference	4-5
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	92
Pass Offense	93
Run Defense	67
Pass Defense	59
Ratings
PiRate	112.5
Mean	103.2
Bias	112.4
Rankings
PiRate	32
Mean	46
Bias	32
Prediction
Conference	4-5
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Iowa St. Cyclones
Head Coach	Paul Rhoads
Colors	Cardinal and Gold
City	Ames, IA
2012 Record
Conference	3-6
Overall	6-7
Grades
Run Offense	64
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	58
Pass Defense	68
Ratings
PiRate	99.7
Mean	92.8
Bias	98.3
Rankings
PiRate	59
Mean	92
Bias	70
Prediction
Conference	1-8
Overall	2-10

 

 

Team	Kansas Jayhawks
Head Coach	Charlie Weis
Colors	Crimson and Blue
City	Lawrence, KS
2012 Record
Conference	0-9
Overall	1-11
Grades
Run Offense	76
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	60
Pass Defense	42
Ratings
PiRate	93.9
Mean	91.5
Bias	92.8
Rankings
PiRate	82
Mean	99
Bias	87
Prediction
Conference	1-8
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	Kansas St. Wildcats
Head Coach	Bill Snyder
Colors	Royal Purple (and Silver)
City	Manhattan, KS
2012 Record
Conference	8-1
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	90
Pass Offense	64
Run Defense	81
Pass Defense	77
Ratings
PiRate	111.9
Mean	104.5
Bias	110.8
Rankings
PiRate	33
Mean	42
Bias	34
Prediction
Conference	5-4
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Oklahoma Sooners
Head Coach	Bob Stoops
Colors	Crimson and Cream
City	Norman, OK
2012 Record
Conference	8-1
Overall	10-3
Grades
Run Offense	83
Pass Offense	89
Run Defense	74
Pass Defense	76
Ratings
PiRate	115.8
Mean	111.6
Bias	115.2
Rankings
PiRate	22
Mean	26
Bias	24
Prediction
Conference	7-2
Overall	9-3

 

 

Team	Oklahoma St. Cowboys
Head Coach	Mike Gundy
Colors	Orange and Black
City	Stillwater, OK
2012 Record
Conference	5-4
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	79
Pass Offense	99
Run Defense	87
Pass Defense	81
Ratings
PiRate	122.0
Mean	111.2
Bias	122.7
Rankings
PiRate	5
Mean	28
Bias	5
Prediction
Conference	8-1
Overall	11-1

 

 

Team	Texas Longhorns
Head Coach	Mack Brown
Colors	Burnt Orange and White
City	Austin
2012 Record
Conference	5-4
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	93
Pass Offense	95
Run Defense	91
Pass Defense	90
Ratings
PiRate	127.3
Mean	116.2
Bias	127.8
Rankings
PiRate	3
Mean	8
Bias	3
Prediction
Conference	9-0
Overall	12-0

 

 

Team	T C U Horned Frogs
Head Coach	Gary Patterson
Colors	Purple and White
City	Ft. Worth, TX
2012 Record
Conference	4-5
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	82
Pass Offense	76
Run Defense	92
Pass Defense	84
Ratings
PiRate	118.0
Mean	115.1
Bias	118.9
Rankings
PiRate	15
Mean	13
Bias	14
Prediction
Conference	6-3
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Texas Tech Red Raiders
Head Coach	Kliff Kingsbury
Colors	Red and Black
City	Lubbock, TX
2012 Record
Conference	4-5
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	57
Pass Offense	86
Run Defense	71
Pass Defense	60
Ratings
PiRate	104.1
Mean	96.6
Bias	102.9
Rankings
PiRate	45
Mean	78
Bias	45
Prediction
Conference	2-7
Overall	5-7

 

 

Team	West Virginia Mountaineers
Head Coach	Dan Holgersen
Colors	Old Gold and Blue
City	Morgantown, WV
2012 Record
Conference	4-5
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	63
Pass Offense	83
Run Defense	65
Pass Defense	56
Ratings
PiRate	102.1
Mean	97.4
Bias	101.1
Rankings
PiRate	47
Mean	72
Bias	51
Prediction
Conference	2-7
Overall	4-8