2013 Sunbelt Conference Football Preview

2013 Sunbelt Conference Preview

 

Once again, the Sunbelt Conference kicks off our PiRate Ratings Previews for a new college football season.  We preview the conferences in reverse order of overall league average, and the SBC brings up the rear once again.  Whereas in past seasons, this league was not that far behind its non-automatic-qualifying conference brethren, changes due to defections and new additions have damaged the league.

New Teams: Georgia State and Texas State

Departed Teams: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, North Texas

2014 Additions: New Mexico St. and Idaho return to the league they left after 2003, while FCS teams Appalachian St. and Georgia Southern move to FBS

2014 Departures: Western Kentucky moves to CUSA

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Sunbelt Conference
Team		Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean	Bias
Louisiana—Monroe		0-0		0-0		96.8		93.0	98.0
Arkansas St.		0-0		0-0		93.6		87.6	93.5
Louisiana—Lafayette		0-0		0-0		92.4		91.6	92.2
Western Kentucky		0-0		0-0		89.5		93.5	90.3
Troy		0-0		0-0		85.5		87.0	87.1
Texas St.		0-0		0-0		80.6		87.8	79.9
South Alabama		0-0		0-0		79.9		82.7	80.5
Georgia St.		0-0		0-0		60.7		71.5	62.1
League Averages						84.9		86.8	85.5
Official Sunbelt Media Poll
Pos.	Team		Points		1st Place
1 (tie)	Louisiana-Lafayette		57		4
1 (tie)	Louisiana-Monroe		57		2
3	Arkansas St.		45		2
4	Western Kentucky		44		0
5	Troy		35		0
6	Texas St.		23		0
7	South Alabama		19		0
8	Georgia St.		8		0

Official Pre-season All-Sunbelt Conference Team

Offense

Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)

David Oku (Arkansas State, Sr., RB)

Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., RB)

J.D. McKissic (Arkansas State, So., WR)

Je’Ron Hamm (ULM, Sr., WR)

Eric Thomas (Troy, Sr. WR)

Wes Saxton (South Alabama, Jr., TE)

Bryce Giddens (Arkansas State, So., OL)

Andre Huval (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., OL)

Josh Allen (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., OL)

Terrence Jones (Troy, Jr., OL)

Sean Conway (WKU, Sr., OL)

Defense

Ryan Carrethers (Arkansas State, Sr., DL)

Christian Ringo (Louisiana-Lafayette, Jr., DL)

Kentarius Caldwell (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DL)

Alex Page (South Alabama, Sr., DL)

Qushaun Lee (Arkansas State, Jr., LB)

Justin Anderson (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., LB)

Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)

Sterling Young (Arkansas State, Jr., DB)

Isaiah Newsome (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DB)

Tyrell Pearson (South Alabama, Sr., DB)

Jonathan Dowling (WKU, Sr., DB)

Special Teams

Brian Davis (Arkansas State, Sr., K)

Will Scott (Troy, Sr., P)

Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., Return Specialist)

Preseason Offensive Player of the Year

Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)

Preseason Defensive Player of the Year

Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100    A+

86-92      A

79-85      A-

72-78      B+

65-71      B

58-64      B-

51-57      C+

44-50      C

37-43      C-

30-36      D

0-29        F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team	UL-Monroe Warhawks
Head Coach	Todd Berry
Colors	Maroon & Gold
City	Monroe, LA
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	57
Pass Offense	76
Run Defense	62
Pass Defense	51
Ratings
PiRate	96.8
Mean	93.0
Bias	98.0
Rankings
PiRate	76
Mean	90
Bias	72
Prediction
Conference	6-1
Overall	8-4

Team	Arkansas State Red Wolves
Head Coach	Bryan Harsin
Colors	Scarlet & Black
City	Jonesboro, AR
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	10-3
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	52
Pass Defense	49
Ratings
PiRate	93.6
Mean	87.6
Bias	93.5
Rankings
PiRate	83
Mean	108
Bias	84
Prediction
Conference	6-1
Overall	9-3

Team	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
Head Coach	Mark Hudspeth
Colors	Vermillion and White
City	Lafayette, LA
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	71
Run Defense	49
Pass Defense	43
Ratings
PiRate	92.4
Mean	91.6
Bias	92.2
Rankings
PiRate	87
Mean	98
Bias	88
Prediction
Conference	5-2
Overall	8-4

Team	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Head Coach	Bobby Petrino
Colors	Red and White
City	Bowling Green, KY
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	53
Pass Offense	60
Run Defense	48
Pass Defense	55
Ratings
PiRate	89.5
Mean	93.5
Bias	90.3
Rankings
PiRate	93
Mean	89
Bias	93
Prediction
Conference	5-2
Overall	8-4

Team	Troy Trojans
Head Coach	Larry Blakeney
Colors	Red, Black, and Gray
City	Troy, AL
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7
Grades
Run Offense	36
Pass Offense	72
Run Defense	41
Pass Defense	47
Ratings
PiRate	85.5
Mean	87.0
Bias	87.1
Rankings
PiRate	106
Mean	109
Bias	99
Prediction
Conference	3-4
Overall	4-8

Team	Texas State Bobcats
Head Coach	Dennis Franchione
Colors	Maroon and Gold
City	San Marcos, TX
2012 Record
Conference	2-4 (in WAC)
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	52
Pass Offense	38
Run Defense	57
Pass Defense	40
Ratings
PiRate	80.6
Mean	87.8
Bias	79.9
Rankings
PiRate	117
Mean	106
Bias	118
Prediction
Conference	2-5
Overall	4-8

Team	South Alabama Jaguars
Head Coach	Joey Jones
Colors	Red, White, and Blue
City	Mobile, AL
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-11
Grades
Run Offense	50
Pass Offense	46
Run Defense	46
Pass Defense	39
Ratings
PiRate	79.9
Mean	82.7
Bias	80.5
Rankings
PiRate	118
Mean	119
Bias	116
Prediction
Conference	1-6
Overall	2-10

Team	Georgia State Panthers
Head Coach	Trent Miles
Colors	Royal Blue and White
City	Atlanta
2012 Record
Conference	1-7 (in FCS:Colonial Athletic)
Overall	1-10
Grades
Run Offense	17
Pass Offense	35
Run Defense	31
Pass Defense	19
Ratings
PiRate	60.7
Mean	71.5
Bias	62.1
Rankings
PiRate	125
Mean	125
Bias	125
Prediction
Conference	0-7
Overall	0-12

2011 Sunbelt Conference Preview

2011 Sunbelt Conference Preview

 

The guard may be in process of changing in the Sunbelt Conference.  Florida International and Troy finished tied for first at 6-2 last year, but FIU defeated the Trojans by 17. 

 

Florida International returns an experienced quarterback in Wesley Carroll, good depth at running back with Darriet Perry and Darian Mallary capable of teaming for 1,800 rushing yards, and the top receiver in the league and a possible high NFL draft choice in T. Y. Hilton.  Their offensive line is close to the best in the league and could emerge as the best if someone can step forward at center.  FIU should top 30 points and 400 yards per game this season.

 

Defensively, the Golden Panthers should be as good as or better than last season.  The one question mark will be at linebacker.

 

Louisiana Monroe is the wildcard in this season’s SBC race.  The Warriors return 17 starters from a year ago and should definitely improve on their 4-4 conference mark and 5-7 record overall.  An overtime loss to eventual champion FIU and a one-point loss to Louisiana in the season finale was all that kept ULM from winning the league last year.  The Warriors figure to be at least 7-10 points better in 2011, and when they host FIU on November 19, it could very well be for the 2011 SBC title.

 

Kolton Browning is an excellent dual threat quarterback.  He completed 62% of his passes last year as a freshman.  His top four receivers return this year, and ULM should gain 250 yards through the air this season.

 

The defense must improve after giving up 32 points per game last year.  The Warriors gave up 4.4 yards per carry, and that number will not win a conference championship.

 

Troy is not out, but they are down a bit.  The Trojans were hit hard after the end of the season losing two wide receivers that were expected to contribute heavily in 2011.  Chip Reeves and Jamel Johnson would have been the two leading returning receivers for the league’s best passer, Corey Robinson.

 

Troy should have a much improved defense this season after giving up more than 30 points per game in 2010.  However, the Trojans’ offense may not repeat last year’s results when they averaged 34 points and 450+ yards per game. 

 

Defensively, end Jonathan Massaquoi will contend for defensive Player of the Year honors.  Massaquoi recorded more than 20 tackles for loss with 13 ½ sacks last year.  He will see more double teams with the departure of Mario Addison.

 

Arkansas State could have been 8-4 instead of 4-8.  The Red Wolves will be the most exciting team in the league with their no-huddle hurry-up offense.  An inexperienced offensive line could be their downfall.  If the green OL can protect quarterback Ryan Aplin, ASU’s passing game could top 275 yards per game through the air.  Dwayne Frampton, Allen Muse, and Taylor Stockemer return after combining for 145 receptions, 1,933 yards, and 16 touchdowns last year, and this year junior college transfer Jose Jarboe joins the fold to give the Red Wolves a receiving corps that has no peers inside the league.

 

Unfortunately, the hurry-up offense means the defense may have to hurry to get back on the field for too many plays.  ASU’s defense does not have the depth to stay on the field for 75 plays a game and be effective.

 

Western Kentucky is being picked near the bottom of the conference by the media, but we believe the Hilltoppers will be much improved this year.  WKU was outscored by just 2.6 points per game in league play, and they were only outgained by 20 yards per game.  With most of their skilled players returning on offense as well as some decent depth in the trenches, the Hilltoppers could flirt with a winning record in 2011.  A tough non-conference schedule could prevent that from happening, but we would not be surprised if WKU’s conference record was .500 or better.

 

Running back Bobby Rainey returns after leading the league with 1,649 yards rushing.  If the Hilltoppers can come up with just a little more balance on the attack side, they could threaten the 28 points per game mark.

 

Defensively, WKU was too easy to run on.  The Hilltoppers gave up five yards per carry, and still they were often burned by enemy passing games.  The defense will be quite a bit improved, but it is still not championship quality.

 

Middle Tennessee has never won the SBC title; they have flirted for years with championship material, but the Blue Raiders have been the Fresno State of the Sunbelt.  2011 should see Middle Tennessee take a step back after going to bowls both of the last two seasons. 

 

The Blue Raiders must rebuild on defense, and they were not all that tough on that side of the ball, giving up 120 points and 1,426 yards to Troy, Arkansas State, and FIU, the top three offenses in the league.

 

There could be a diamond in the rough on the offensive side of the ball.  Running back Jeremiah Bryson was headed to Pittsburgh, but he changed his mind to stay closer to home due to family issues.  Bryson could be the best back in Murfreesboro since Dwone Hicks played there a decade ago.

 

It is hard to believe that it has been seven years since North Texas was the original Troy of the Sunbelt.  The Mean Green won the league title four years in a row from 2001 to 2004, but UNT hasn’t tasted success since, going just 13-58 in the past in the last six seasons.  New head coach Dan McCarney will try to resurrect the program.  McCarney brought Iowa State back to respectability, taking the Cyclones to five bowls in six years and coming within a missed kick of winning the Big 12 North twice.  McCarney was Urban Meyer’s top assistant at Florida the last three years. 

 

McCarney dismissed top receiver Darius Carey from the team, and the UNT passing attack will struggle this year.  Sophomore quarterback Derek Thompson will battle Juco transfer Brent Osborn.  Whoever emerges as the starter will be handing the ball to Lance Dunbar about 25 times per game.  Dunbar rushed for 1,553 yards and 13 scores last year, and he caught 28 passes for three more touchdowns.

 

Defensively, the Mean Green were quite improved last year, although they still gave up 30 points and almost 400 yards per game.  Just three years ago, they gave up close to 50 points and 500 yards per game.  There could be additional improvement in 2011, but a tough schedule should prevent UNT from threatening for bowl eligibility.

 

Louisiana starts from scratch with new coach Mark Hudspeth.  Every place Hudspeth has gone, his teams have won, and the folks in Lafayette are excited in hopes that he will turn the program around.  UL’s last winning season was in the previous century, so do not expect miracles in year one.  In fact, the Ragin’ Cajuns could even take a small step back from last season’s 3-9 finish.

 

Quarterback Chris Masson is not going to be confused with Jake Delhomme, but the senior should improve on his 52.9 completion percentage this season.  He played in a shotgun formation last year and will be under center most of the time this season.  Masson has the top tight end target in the league in LaDarius Green.  Green is a threat to get open in the seams of zones and present a monstrous target.

 

An inexperienced offensive line will spell doom for the offense this year, but UL could have some memorable moments.

 

The defense is going to have some rough Saturdays once again.  UL surrendered 37 points and just under 400 yards per game last year, and even an improvement to 30 points allowed will not be enough to move the Ragin’ Cajuns north in the standings.

 

Florida Atlantic head coach Howard Schnellenberger just announced that 2011 will be his last.  Schnellenberger, 77, has a storied history in football.  He was recruited to Kentucky by Bear Bryant and later served on some of the best coaching staffs of all time.  As an assistant at his alma mater in the late 1950’s, he served under future NFL Champion coach Blanton Collier along with Don Shula and Bill Arnsparger.  As an assistant at Alabama, the Crimson Tide won multiple national titles, and he was the key recruiter that landed Joe Namath.  As an assistant in the NFL, he won a Super Bowl ring with Shula at Miami after helping the Rams win two division titles in the late 1960’s.  Throw in a college football championship at the U of Miami, and that is more than enough for any one man.  He was not finished.  He returned to his city of childhood and built Louisville into a major force in college football.  He also started the program at FAU. 

 

We mention all these things, because the 2011 season could be a really lousy way to exit the profession.  The Owls were the weakest offensive team in the SBC last year, and they lost most of their good players, including quarterback Jeff Van Camp and his top three receivers.  FAU had trouble running the ball, and it will be difficult to improve the running game with an inexperienced passing game this season.  The one positive is the return of all starting offensive linemen.

 

Defensively, opponents had little difficulty running or passing against the Owls in 2010, and the scary news is that the 2011 defense could be a little weaker.  Five of the top six tacklers from last year are gone.

 

Sunbelt Conference Preseason Media Poll
Team			First Place Votes	Points
1. Florida Int’l			5	75
2. Troy			2	66
3. Middle Tennessee				54
4. Louisiana-Monroe				54
5. Arkansas St.			1	49
6. North Texas				33
7. Western Kentucky			1	28
8. Louisiana				26
9. Florida Atlantic				20
The PiRate Ratings
Team			PiRate #	Prediction
1. Florida Int’l			87.1	7-1/8-4
2. Louisiana-Monroe			82.3	7-1/8-4
3. Troy			81.3	6-2/6-6
4. Arkansas State			81.3	4-4/5-7
5. Western Kentucky			75.1	3-5/4-8
6. Middle Tennessee			72.8	4-4/5-7
7. North Texas			71.9	3-5/3-9
8. Louisiana			71.7	1-7/2-10
9. Florida Atlantic			68.7	1-7/1-11

Next: The Mid-American Conference Preview, Tuesday, August 16