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2010 Southeastern Conference Preview
We close out the conference previews with a look at the biggie. The SEC has produced the last four national champions and five in the past decade, compared to two from the Big 12, one from the Big Ten, one from the Pac-10, and one from the Big East. Not since Georgia in 2005 has the SEC Champion not played in the BCS National Championship Game.
We are going to predict this trend ends this season, but not without a lot of controversy. We believe the SEC Champion, like all the other five BCS Conference champions will lose at least one game. As we have stated in earlier previews, we believe both Boise State and TCU will win all their games and meet in Glendale for the rubber match bowl game.
One coach finds himself on a hot seat that he may not be able to cool down. One coach is on a mildly warm seat due to fans that have ridiculously high and impossible standards. One coach may want to hang it up at the end of this year after many years in the business. One coach already decided to get out, leaving just before August practices began. It is possible that four jobs in the elite conference will be available after the season.
Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games. They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games. We do not use these ratings to make our selections. They are only a starting point. The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.
Predictions
| Pos |
East |
SEC |
W-L |
| 1 |
Florida |
7-1 |
11-2 |
| 2 |
South Carolina |
5-3 |
8-4 |
| 3 |
Georgia |
5-3 |
9-3 |
| 4 |
Kentucky |
2-6 |
6-6 |
| 5 |
Tennessee |
1-7 |
4-8 |
| 6 |
Vanderbilt |
0-8 |
1-11 |
| |
|
|
|
| Pos |
West |
SEC |
W-L |
| 1 |
Alabama |
7-1 |
12-1 |
| 2 |
Auburn |
5-3 |
9-3 |
| 3 |
Arkansas |
5-3 |
9-3 |
| 4 |
L S U |
4-4 |
7-5 |
| 5 |
Ole Miss |
4-4 |
8-4 |
| 6 |
Mississippi State |
3-5 |
6-6 |
SEC Championship Game: Alabama over Florida
BCS Bowl (Sugar): Alabama
BCS Bowl: Florida
Capital One Bowl: Auburn
Outback Bowl: Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Arkansas
Chick-fil-A Bowl: South Carolina
Gator Bowl: L S U
Music City Bowl: Mississippi State
Liberty Bowl: Ole Miss
PapaJohns.com Bowl: Kentucky
Team By Team Breakdown
S E C East
|
Team |
Florida Gators |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Urban Meyer |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Blue and Orange |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Gainesville, FL |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
8-0 |
| Overall |
13-1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
121.4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
10 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
7-1 |
| Overall |
11-2 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
QB, RB, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, LB, DB, Special Teams |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Receiver (small weakness) |
| |
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|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
Miami (O), South Florida, Appalachian State, @ Florida State |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
@ Alabama, LSU, Georgia (n), South Carolina |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
28-32 points & 375-400 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
15-19 points & 275-300 yards |
| |
|
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| Outlook |
The Gators went 13-1 last year, and it was considered a major disappointment. The team that returned almost every starter from a national championship was expected to go 14-0 and become the next 2001 Miami, 1995 Nebraska, 1971 Nebraska, and 1945 Army in college football.
Head Coach Urban Meyer briefly stepped down only to come back a few days later. Unfortunately, Tim Tebow, Riley Cooper, Aaron Hernandez, Ryan Stamper, Joe Haden, Brandon Spikes, Dustin Doe, and Carlos Dunlap don’t have the option of coming back. The Gators lost nine players to the NFL. How can they possibly still be considered the top contender in the SEC East? Simple: they still have the best overall talent in the division.
Quarterback John Brantley completed 36 of 48 passes for 410 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions in mop-up situations last year. Not a real dual-threat runner like Tebow, he will set up in the pocket and throw downfield. Remember, Meyer won a national title here with Chris Leak doing the same thing.
Brantley has fewer weapons at his disposal than Tebow had. The loss of Cooper and Hernandez (119-1,811/14) leaves Deonte Thompson as the leading holdover. Thompson will get help from the speedy Andre DeBose and the big-bodied Carl Moore. Slotback Chris Rainey caught only 10 passes last year, and he will have to quadruple that mark this year for the Gators to be successful.
The running game will need more production from real backs, because Brantley will run much less than Tebow. Rainey will team with Chris Demps and Emmanuel Moody to carry the load. Expect the trio to top 1,800 rushing yards this year.
The offensive line returns four talented blockers, including all-American center Mike Pouncey and 6-5, 360-pound guard Carl Johnson.
Losing three defensive players who were drafted in the 1st two rounds of the NFL Draft and two other players in later rounds, UF will be a little weaker on this side of the ball, but not too much weaker to miss out on a return trip to a BCS Bowl.
The Gators have strength at defensive tackle thanks to the return of Omar Hunter and Jaye Howard. Very few teams will run the ball up the middle against them. Meyer recruited a lot of grade A d-line talent, and three could see immediate action as true freshmen. Keep an eye on Ronald Powell and Sharrif Floyd.
A.J. Jones is the lone starter returning at linebacker. Jones plays the run and the pass well, but UF will be weaker in the second line of defense.
The secondary will be strong once again with the return of two starters and several talented letterwinners. Enemy quarterbacks will throw away from cornerback Janoris Jenkins.
Florida must play Alabama in the regular season at Tuscaloosa on October 2. They will probably face the Tide in Atlanta two months later in a rematch game.
| Team |
Georgia Bulldogs |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Mark Richt |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Red and Black |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Athens, GA |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
4-4 |
| Overall |
8-5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
115.5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
23 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
5-3 |
| Overall |
9-3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
RB, Receiver, Offensive Line ***, Linebacker, Special Teams |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Quarterback, Defensive Line, Defensive Back |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
UL-Lafayette, @ Colorado, Idaho State, Georgia Tech |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
@ South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida (n), @ Auburn |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
27-31 points & 375-400 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
22-26 points & 350-375 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
It is ridiculous that many Georgia fans want to get rid of Coach Mark Richt, when he just guided the Bulldogs to the most successful decade in their history. Vince Dooley did not post 10-consecutive seasons as victorious as the decade Richt produced in Athens. Pay close attention to what happened in Minnesota when Glen Mason was fired.
Editorial aside, Georgia has another fine team this season. 10 starters return on the offensive side; the one position that needs to be filled just happens to be at quarterback. Richt has basically one option here. Redshirt freshman Aaron Murray has the job from day one, because true freshman Hutson Mason is the only real backup.
If Murray is worth his salt as a passer, he will have a lot of weapons at his disposal. A.J. Green has all-American potential after grabbing 53 passes for 808 yards in an injury-plagued season. Tavarres King and Orson Charles should both top 40 receptions. Former quarterback Logan Gray moves to receiver, where he should contribute this year.
At running back, Washaun Ealey played in the final nine games and rushed for 717 yards. Caleb King added 594 yards. Both have a combination of power and speed and can hit anywhere on the line of scrimmage.
The offensive line returns all five starters from last season, and this quintet ranks second nationally to Wisconsin’s line. Guards Chris Davis and Cordy Glenn make a terrific tandem, and when you throw in center Ben Jones, the Bulldogs will be able to run the ball inside with authority and keep defensive pass rushers from coming up the middle.
In the last five seasons, Georgia gave up 16.4, 17.6, 20.2, 24.5, and 25.9 points per game. This annual deterioration has led to a change at defensive coordinator. Enter NFL veteran Todd Grantham, and enter the 3-4 defense.
We are a bit concerned about the new front three, as nose guard DeAngelo Tyson is not the answer there for a 3-4 front. Former offensive lineman Justin Anderson may eventually take over in the interior. At 330 pounds, he is better suited to growing roots over center.
If the new defensive line can keep blockers away from the UGa linebackers, the defense will have a chance to improve for the first time in five years. Watch for Justin Houston to become a fixture in opponents’ backfields. He could register double figure sacks and 20+ tackles for loss.
Brandon Boykin is the only returning starter in the secondary, and there isn’t much experience taking the place of the three departed starters. Look for the ‘Dogs to give up more passing yards this year.
Georgia faced a key game in week two, when they visit South Carolina. The winner will get a chance to play for the division title later in the season against Florida, while the loser will be out of the race.
| Team |
Kentucky Wildcats |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Joker Phillips |
| |
|
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|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Royal Blue and White |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Lexington, KY |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
2-6 |
| Overall |
7-6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
101.9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
55 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
2-6 |
| Overall |
6-6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Receiver, Special Teams, Defensive Back |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Quarterback, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
@ Louisville, Western Kentucky, Akron, Chas. Southern |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
@ Ole Miss, Auburn, South Carolina, @ Miss. St., Vandy, @ Tenn. |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
24-28 points & 300-325 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
23-27 points & 350-375 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
Joker Phillips takes over as head coach in Lexington after directing the Wildcats’ offense. Kentucky has used intelligent non-conference scheduling to gain bowl eligibility four years in a row. The trend should continue in Phillips’ first season.
This will be a weaker Kentucky team, but the Wildcats will benefit from having the easiest schedule in the league. They should sweep their four non-SEC foes for the fourth year in a row and win two conference games to make it back to a bowl for the fifth straight year.
Phillips has to make a decision at quarterback. He has senior Mike Hartline and sophomore Morgan Newton as his two main options. Hartline is a more conservative passer who seldom takes chances. He’s got a more accurate arm, but he doesn’t have much zip on the ball. Newton can hum the ball deep and has a quick release, but he doesn’t always put the ball where he aims. Expect both to play, and redshirt freshman Ryan Mosakowski could see some game time as well.
There is another option at quarterback. Randall Cobb is the Wildcat Offense quarterback, but he is a starting wideout. Cobb led UK with 39 receptions and 447 yards last year. He finished second in rushing with 573 yards, and he passed for 89 more. If the single wing were still in vogue, he would be an all-star tailback.
Speaking of tailbacks, Derrick Locke returns after rushing for 907 yards. Expect Locke to run the ball 200-225 times for more than 1,000 yards this season.
Besides the previously mentioned Cobb, Kentucky returns four other receivers that saw considerable action, so whoever ends up in the pocket should have some good targets running routes.
The offensive line could be a liability this year, as just one starter returns. Guard Stuart Hines has all-conference potential, but three of the new starters have seen a lot of action in SEC games. Don’t expect too many more sacks allowed by this unit.
The 2009 UK defense turned out to be outstanding. Ask Tim Tebow about the pass rush. This year, the defensive line could even be a bit better. Ends DeQuin Evans and Taylor Wyndham (the concussion-delivering blow to Tebow) will give the ‘Cats a good pass rush from the outside. The tackles are not as talented as the ends, and opponents will run the ball up the middle against them.
Only one starter returns at linebacker. Danny Trevathan finished second in tackles last year with 82, and he had five tackles for loss. Phillips may have some depth issues here, because several expected backups have left.
Half of last year’s great secondary returns. Cornerback Randall Burden intercepted two passes and knocked down eight others. Safety Winston Guy was an excellent run stuffer, and he broke up five passes. The pass defense won’t come close to matching last year’s exceptional output (just 48.5% completions allowed), but it will still be quite good.
Kentucky has not defeated rival Tennessee since 1984, but we believe this is the season that streak ends.
| Team |
South Carolina Gamecocks |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Steve Spurrier |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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| Colors |
Garnet and Black |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Columbia, SC |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
3-5 |
| Overall |
7-6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
121.6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
5-3 |
| Overall |
8-4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Running Back, Receiver, Defensive Back |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Offensive Line |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
Southern Miss, Furman, Troy, @ Clemson |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
Georgia, @ Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, @ Florida |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
26-30 points & 360-380 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
18-22 points & 300-325 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
It could be now or never for Coach Steve Spurrier in Columbia. He has enough talent to break through into the top two in the division, if he can get halfway decent production from his quarterbacks.
Spurrier tends to eat at his quarterbacks when they don’t play every down like they have the name “Wuerffel” on the back of their jerseys. He has bad-mouthed two-year starter Stephen Garcia since the end of last season, and it appears he will carry the insults to the opening game. Garcia passed for 2,862 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, and he scrambled at times when the pocket broke down. Still, Spurrier is threatening to start true freshman Connor Shaw in the first game.
Another true freshman might start from day one and become the best running back the Gamecock’s have had since George Rogers. Marcus Lattimore is the real deal. He was the top running back recruit in the nation last year. Returning starter Kenny Miles and backups Brian Maddox and Jarvis Giles return, so the USC running game may produce the most yards here since Lou Holtz was coaching.
The receiving corps welcomes back leading pass catcher Alshon Jeffery, who finished 2009 with 46 receptions for 763 yards and six touchdowns. He will team with Tori Gurley to form a formidable pair of wideouts. If tight end Weslye Saunders can improve on his 32 receptions, the Gamecocks are going to be potent on the attack. Saunders was one of the college stars present at that South Beach agent party, so he could miss some or even all of 2009.
The offensive line has played inconsistently the last couple of years, but it should be a team strength this season with four returning starters.
The USC defense gave up just 20 points and 300 yards per game last year, and seven starters return to keep it strong in 2010. Two starters return to the front four, including all-conference end Cliff Matthews. Matthews made 47 tackles with seven sacks and three other tackles for loss, and he proved valuable against the pass with three knocked down passes.
At linebacker, leading tackler Shaq Wilson returns after making 85 stops last year. Rodney Paulk returns to the middle linebacker spot after missing two seasons due to injury. If he is close to 100% after suffering an ACL injury, the Gamecocks will be strong here.
The secondary is the strength of the defense. USC has a top notch pair of cornerbacks in Stephon Gilmore and Chris Culliver. They broke up 17 passes last year, and they should pick up a couple more interceptions this season.
Everything is in place for Spurrier to take USC to the next level. They have a chance in all eight conference games, as they get to host Alabama and Georgia, and they play Florida in Gainesville in a year where the Gators will have a minor rebuilding season. If the Gamecocks repeat with a 7-6 season, Spurrier may hang it up.
| Team |
Tennessee Volunteers |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Derek Dooley |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Orange and White |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Knoxville, TN |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
4-4 |
| Overall |
7-6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
101.9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
54 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
1-7 |
| Overall |
4-8 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Receiver |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Quarterback, Offensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
UT-Martin, Oregon, UAB, @ Memphis |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
@LSU, @ Georgia, @ S. Carolina, Ole Miss, @ Vandy, Kentucky |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
16-20 points & 275-300 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
20-24 points & 300-325 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
Welcome to the annual soap opera known as “All My Coaches.” The Volunteers have their third coach in three seasons and fourth offensive coordinator in four seasons. Add to this that several players have left and more have suffered injuries, and this is going to be the weakest team on the hill in Knoxville in more than 30 years.
The offense starts with a new quarterback that threw for 39 yards in very limited action at Louisville two years ago. Matt Simms is the son of Phil Simms. The junior transfer will compete with true freshman Tyler Bray, but whoever winds up as the starter will not come close to matching the stats compiled by departed starter Jonathan Crompton.
Three talented receivers will give the new QB a decent chance at having some success against weaker pass defenses. Wideouts Gerald Jones and Denarius Moore and tight end Luke Stocker teamed up for 115 receptions, 1,609 yards, and 16 touchdowns. True freshman Justin Hunter could see extensive action.
The running game has to start from scratch with the loss of the top two rushers. Tauren Poole and David Oku are serviceable backs, but neither will threaten to run for 1,000 yards.
The weakest unit on the team is the offensive line. All five starters are gone. Guard Jarrod Shaw started three games last season, and the rest of this unit has no career starts.
This will be the weakest offense at UT since before Doug Dickey’s time as coach in the mid-1960’s.
The defense should be better off than the offense, but there are no Reggie White’s or John Henderson’s on this team. There are also no Eric Berry’s. Berry finished his career with seven tackles for loss and nine passes defended last season. The all-American strong safety was the fifth overall pick in the draft.
Darren Myles was going to be the new stud of the secondary, but he was dismissed from the team this spring. Expect opponents to shred this secondary for 200+ passing yards this season.
The defensive line took a major hit with injuries, and there will be a problem stopping the run and rushing the passer. Southern Cal transfer Malik Jackson could see immediate playing time. Chris Walker will be the lone serious QB sack threat.
Tennessee has a similar history to Penn State when it comes to producing linebackers. They have two fine ones this year who should combine for 100-120 tackles. LaMarcus Thompson and Nick Reveiz won’t make all-conference teams, but they won’t be liabilities either.
Tennessee should win three of their four non-conference games this year, but once conference play begins, the Vols may have to wait to November to get a league win. Coach Derek Dooley’s first season in Knoxville could produce a 4-8 record. Since the Vols started playing football in 1902, they have never lost eight games in a season.
| Team |
Vanderbilt Commodores |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Robbie Caldwell |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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| Colors |
Black and Gold |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Nashville, TN |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
0-8 |
| Overall |
2-10 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
96.1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
68 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
0-8 |
| Overall |
1-11 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Running Back |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
QB, Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, LB, Defensive Back |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
Northwestern, @ Connecticut, Eastern Mich., Wake Forest |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
@ Ole Miss, @ Kentucky, Tennessee |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
13-16 points & 275-300 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
23-26 points & 375-400 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
Vanderbilt was supposed to contend for another bowl game last year and maybe win as many as eight games with a veteran squad returning from a seven-win season that included a bowl victory. Instead, the Commodores suffered through numerous injuries and crashed to a 2-10 season. The offense could not move the ball on Army much less a conference foe. Vanderbilt averaged just 8.9 points and 234 yards of offense in conference play, numbers not seen in the SEC since the mid-1960’s.
To add insult to injury, Bobby Johnson decided in July that he could take no more of this. He retired, leaving the job to Robbie Caldwell. Vanderbilt is a team that must stay healthy to have a chance in the SEC, and immediately after practice began, serious injuries put a major crimp in the offense. It is going to be a long season in Nashville, and the Commodores are going to be underdogs in all but one game.
Larry Smith returns at quarterback after suffering through a sophomore slump season that ended in the first quarter of the ninth game. He will compete with holdovers Jared Funk and Charlie Goro and junior college transfer Jordan Rodgers, the younger brother of Aaron Rodgers. We expect Smith to start the opener with Northwestern, but we wouldn’t be surprised if more than one quarterback played in that game.
The running back situation appeared to be a team strength until practice began. Sophomore Warren Norman rushed for 783 yards as a freshman, while fellow freshman Zac Stacy added 478. Stacy sprained his MCL in practice and is out for the first couple of games. Backup backs Kennard Reeves and Wesley Tate (younger brother of Golden Tate) are nursing injuries as well, so depth will be an issue here.
The Commodores are rather weak at receiver. There is not a deep ball threat on the roster, and there is only one consistent possession man. John Cole led the team with just 36 receptions and 382 yards. Tight end Brandon Barden finished second with 29 catches for 357 yards. No receiver had more than one touchdown reception. Expect another year of struggles through the air.
The offensive line lost its one all-conference caliber blocker when tackle James Williams was lost to academic difficulties. One starter returns to the blocking corps–guard Kyle Fischer.
This looks like an offense that will possibly score fewer than 10 points per game in conference play for a second consecutive season.
The Vanderbilt defense was decent last year, but the offense forced it to defend too many plays, more than 70 to be exact. Injuries and graduation will make this side of the ball weaker than last year. Tackle Adam Smotherman tore his ACL in Spring drills, and he will not be 100% at all this season. He will probably miss some games as well. End Theron Kadri will become the sack specialist on this team, but we don’t expect Vanderbilt to top 20 sacks with this defense.
Chris Marve is an all-conference talent at middle linebacker after leading the Commodores with 121 tackles last year. He will have two new partners starting with him in the second line of defense.
The back line of defense loses its leading pass defender, but cornerback Casey Hayward returns after intercepting two passes and batting away seven others.
We cannot see the Commodores breaking through with a conference victory this season. Vanderbilt’s non-conference schedule is the toughest of any SEC team. They face Northwestern, Connecticut, and Wake Forest, and we see these opponents defeating the Commodores in close games. That leaves an October 9 home game with Eastern Michigan as possibly the only chance to pick up a victory.
S E C WEST
| Team |
Alabama Crimson Tide |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Nick Saban |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Crimson and White |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Tuscaloosa, AL |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
8-0 |
| Overall |
14-0 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
126.1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
2 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
7-1 |
| Overall |
12-1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Quarterback **, Running Back ***, Defensive Line, Linebacker |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Defensive Back |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
San Jose State, Penn State @ Duke, Georgia State |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
@ Arkansas, Florida, @ S. Carolina, Auburn |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
34-38 points & 400-425 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
15-19 points & 275-300 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
What can the Tide do for an encore? They had maybe two tough games in their march to a 14-0 record and national championship. The had the Heisman Trophy winner as well. How can a team lose nine starters on their defensive side and still be a legitimate contender for another national championship?
That’s simple. When you have a top five recruiting class three years in a row, you have exceptional talent past your two-deep. There are players on this team that may see no more than a few snaps of game action per year that could be starting for other bowl teams.
Let’s start on offense, where the Tide will be tough to slow down. The second best running attack in college football starts with the best individual back. Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram is back after rushing for 1,658 yards and 17 touchdowns. He added 32 receptions for 334 yards and three more scores. Backup Trent Richardson rushed for 751 yards and eight scores, earning 1st Team Freshman All-American honors!
Handing the ball off to this dynamic duo is a quarterback that has never lost a game at the college or high school level. Greg McElroy didn’t get much publicity with Ingram running roughshod over opponents, but he completed better than 60% of his passes for 2,508 yards and 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions. He could top 3,000 yards this year.
McElroy’s receivers are not as talented as the running backs, but they are still quite talented in their own right. Julio Jones led the Tide with 43 catches, even though he missed the better part of seven games. Marquis Maze is a deep threat in his own right, and he will see mostly single coverage.
The offensive line returns three starters but has several talented newcomers, including redshirt freshman tackle D.J. Fluker, who has all-conference written all over his chest.
The defense has some major reloading to do. 13 of the top 16 tacklers are gone, and that number could become 14 of 16. Middle linebacker Dont’a Hightower and strong safety Mark Baron are the only two returning starters, and Hightower only started four times before going down for the season with an ACL injury.
Baron could be a 1st Team all-American this year. He led the SEC with 18 passes defended (7 Int./11 PBU). There is very little experience joining him in the secondary, but there is a lot of raw talent waiting for Coach Nick Saban to mold into the next tough pass defense.
Sophomore Nico Johnson made the SEC All-Freshman team last year in limited action, and he will team with Hightower to form a splendid pair at linebacker.
The front line could have another major blow. End Marcell Dareus, a sack machine, may be declared ineligible for part or all of the season for his attendance at the South Beach agent party.
Alabama will give up more points and yards this year, but they will still finish in the top 20 in the nation in total defense.
The schedule is really tough for all SEC West teams this year, as every team could easily be bowl eligible. Throw in a game with Florida, and it doesn’t look possible for a third consecutive undefeated regular season. Call it a one-loss year and trip to the Sugar Bowl.
| Team |
Arkansas Razorbacks |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Bobby Petrino |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Cardinal and White |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Fayetteville, AR |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
3-5 |
| Overall |
8-5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
124.9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
5-3 |
| Overall |
9-3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Quarterback ***, Receiver |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Defensive Line |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
Tenn. Tech, UL-Monroe, Texas A&M (n), UTEP |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
@ Georgia, Alabama, @ Auburn, Ole Miss, @ S.Car, LSU |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
40-44 points and 450-475 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
24-28 points & 375-400 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
Arkansas has half of the best team in the nation. Their offense is unrivaled by any team. They may not finish atop the total offense and scoring offense statistics, but the teams that beat them out won’t play SEC defenses. If the Razorbacks played a CUSA schedule, they might average close to 55 points per game this year.
Ryan Mallett is the best quarterback in the SEC and one of the five best in the nation. Last year, he passed for 3,624 yards and 30 touchdowns versus just seven interceptions. His 55.8% completion rate was lower than others, because Mallett tends to throw deeper passes. He averaged nine yards per attempt and more than 16 yards per completion.
The vertical passing game works so well, because Arkansas has the best group of receivers in the SEC. Three Hog pass catchers can burn a secondary for a quick six on a go route. Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, and Joe Adams teamed up for 118 receptions, 2,143 yards (18.2 avg), and 19 touchdowns. Tight end D.J. Williams added 32 receptions, and he can take a pass over the middle and go the distance.
Pass defenders will have to cede territory in their alignments, and that will make the running game have more room to run when backs break free from the line. Arkansas doesn’t run the ball much, and they have little need to do so, but when they do, expect the backs to improve on last season’s average per attempt. Ronnie Wingo and Broderick Green should average a combined five yards per rush this year.
The offensive line returns four starters from last year, and this group will give Mallett ample time to locate his deadly receivers.
The defense is a different kettle of fish. Arkansas gave up 25 points and 400 yards per game last year, giving up 52 points to Georgia.
Two starters return to the defensive line, but neither was a star. The two new starters saw extensive time last year, so this unit will be about as mediocre as it was last year. Look for true freshman Bryan Jones to see immediate action in the trenches.
The Hogs will be improved at linebacker. Two starters, the numbers one and three tacklers, return. Jerry Franklin collected 94 tackles and played admirably against both the run and pass. Jerico Nelson was a better run-stopper than pass defender. New starter Freddy Burton started seven games last year, so he can be considered a half-starter.
The defensive backfield is the weak spot of the defense. The Razorbacks gave up far too many big plays last year. Arkansas gave up 248 passing yards per game last year. With three starters returning, there should be some improvement. However, none of them intercepted a pass.
Expect another entertaining season out of Coach Bobby Petrino’s Razorbacks. We believe they will average more than 40 points per game. We also think they may be the team that upsets Alabama. However, they have too many holes on defense to run the table. Call it a second or third place finish in the tough West. Jerry Jones would love for his alma mater to play in his stadium at bowl season.
| Team |
Auburn Tigers |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Gene Chizik |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Navy and Burnt Orange |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Auburn, AL |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
3-5 |
| Overall |
8-5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
117.8 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
19 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
5-3 |
| Overall |
9-3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Receiver, Offensive Line, Linebacker |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Defensive Line |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
Arkansas State, Clemson, La.-Monroe, Chattanooga |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
S. Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, @ Ole Miss, Georgia, @ Alabama |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
28-32 points & 400-425 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
22-26 points & 350-375 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
What a difference a year made! In their last season with Tommy Tuberville in charge of this program, Auburn averaged 17 points and 300 yards per game in offense and gave up 18 points and 320 yards. In their first season under Gene Chizik, and with offensive guru Gus Malzahn’s offense being implemented, Auburn’s offense improved to 33 points and 430 yards per game. Unfortunately, their defense weakened to 28 points and 375 yards allowed.
The end result was an 8-5 record that included a bowl win over Northwestern. In year number two, Chizik has the pieces in place to win more games and even possibly challenge for the SEC West division title.
Former Florida signee Cam Newton takes over at quarterback this year. He is a dual-threat that could add to the running game, but he won’t pass for as many yards as this team had in 2009.
Newton’s excellent running ability will help take some heat off the backs. Mario Fannin and Onterio McCalebb combined for just 850 subbing for departed star Ben Tate, and we believe they will team for 1,600 or more yards. True freshman Michael Dyer is a tank with quickness, and he could take away some of the snaps from the other two.
Newton has an outstanding receiver to aim for in Darvin Adams, who caught 60 passes for 997 yards and 10 touchdowns. Terrell Zachery added 26 receptions for 477 yards and five scores. Fannin also proved to be a valuable weapon out of the backfield, taking 42 passes. Look out for true freshman Trovon Reed, who could actually supplant one of the starters.
Four starting offensive linemen return to provide excellent pass protection and to open holes for the running backs. Center Ryan Pugh and tackle Lee Ziemba are both stars.
Look for Auburn to rush for 225-250 yards and pass for 150-175 yards. It looks like another big year from the offense.
Auburn returns half of their starting defensive line, but the loss of Antonio Coleman makes this unit considerable weaker.
Linebacker is a major asset with the return of all three starters. Josh Bynes, Craig Stevens, and Daren Bates finished one-two-and four in tackles last year. Expect Jonathan Evans to see considerable time here as well and possibly crack the starting lineup.
Neiko Thorpe has all-conference potential at cornerback. He intercepted two passes and broke up nine others last year. He joins two safeties with past starting experience, so the pass defense should be a little tighter this season.
Auburn hosts both LSU and Arkansas, the two teams they will compete with for second place in the SEC West. We give them the edge over the other two.
| Team |
Louisiana State Tigers |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Les Miles |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Royal Purple and Gold |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Baton Rouge, LA |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
5-3 |
| Overall |
9-4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
113.0 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
28 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
4-4 |
| Overall |
7-5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Receiver, Special Teams |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Offensive Line, Linebacker |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
North Carolina (n), West Virginia, McNeese St., UL-Monroe |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
@ Florida, @ Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, @ Arkansas |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
20-24 points & 300-325 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
18-22 points & 290-310 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
The Tigers were a major disappointment last year, finishing 9-4 and fielding very little offense. Coach Les Miles is on a very hot seat, and we believe this will be his last season in Baton Rouge, because the Tigers lost too much talent to improve on last year’s record.
Six starters return on offense, but those starters did not shine. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,166 yards with a TD/Int. ratio of 17/7. However, Jefferson (and backup QB Jarrett Lee) took 37 sacks because of difficulty reading defensive coverage. We don’t see the quarterbacking position being all that much improved this season.
Two receivers caught almost 56% of all completed passes last year, and one is no longer here. Terrence Toliver caught 53 passes for 735 yards. Former quarterback Russell Shepard has moved to receiver full-time and will start immediately.
The running game averaged 123 yards per game (skewed by all the sacks). Take away the four non-conference breathers, and the Tigers averaged just 97 rushing yards per game. The top two runners are gone, leaving a major hole at this position.
The offensive line lost its top two blockers, so even with three starters returning, we expect little or no improvement here.
Opposing defenses will beg LSU to run the ball and take away the passing lanes. Jefferson will have a hard time of it this season, and we expect the offense to boggle down yet again.
It was defense that won most of LSU’s games last year. Only four starters return to this side of the ball. Four of the top five tacklers must be replaced.
Only one starter returns to the defensive line. Tackle Lazarius Levingston made eight tackles for loss and batted away four passes. Drake Nevis will team with Levingston to make a great tandem at tackle and prevent many gains up the middle. The news isn’t so rosy at end, where there isn’t a real proven pass rusher present.
Mike linebacker Kelvin Sheppard led the Tigers with 110 tackles, including 8 ½ for loss. Expected starter Ryan Baker will be out until October, so the Tigers will have some concerns in their first four games.
The secondary is the strongest unit on the entire team, and it returns just two starters. Cornerback Patrick Peterson is one of the league’s top three players at his position. He picked off two passes but batted away 13 others.
LSU’s defense will still be powerful, but we doubt they will hold opponents to 16 points per game like last year. The Tigers will struggle to score enough points week after week, but they will still win more than they lose. But, it won’t be enough to save Miles’ job. Three years ago, after supposedly being in line to take over the Michigan job, he chose to stay at LSU. In a strange twist of fate, if Rich Rodriguez were to have a big year at Michigan and this job came open, he might be a candidate here.
| Team |
Ole Miss Rebels |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Houston Nutt |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Cardinal and Navy |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Oxford, MS |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
4-4 |
| Overall |
9-4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
108.3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
41 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
4-4 |
| Overall |
8-4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Quarterback, Running Back, Defensive Back |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Offensive Line |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
Jacksonville St., @ Tulane, Fresno State, UL-Lafayette |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
Kentucky, @ Arkansas, Auburn, @ Tennessee, @ LSU, Miss. St. |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
31-34 points & 410-430 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
18-22 points & 325-350 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
Brett Favre left Mississippi to return to the Minnesota Vikings. Ole Miss has their own version of Favre, so to speak. They will rent a quarterback for the season with hopes of winning a conference championship. Enter Jeremiah Masoli, who was booted off the Oregon Ducks’ team for two infractions. Masoli would have been a Heisman Trophy candidate at OU. He led the Ducks to the Rose Bowl last season after running for 668 yards and 13 touchdowns and passing for 2,147 yards and 15 touchdowns.
The Rebels lost a great all-purpose back in Dexter McCluster. He topped 1,100 yards last year. Brandon Bolden returns after running for 614 yards. Keep an eye of Enrique Davis. The former highly sought after back has floundered so far, but the junior could be getting ready to come into his own.
The Rebels lost their top two receivers from last year, and that may keep Masoli from putting up passing stats like he did at Oregon. Markeith Summers is the leading returnee with 394 yards on 17 receptions.
The offensive line lost three multi-year starters, but both tackles return. Expect a small step backward in pass protection, but Masoli is much more mobile than last year’s quarterback, Jevan Snead.
The defense is in a little better shape with the return of six starters. Three starters return up front, and the Rebels should be strong against the run and also have another good pass rush. Jerrelle Powe could make the 1st Team All-SEC list after coming up with 12 tackles for losses last year.
Linebackers Jonathan Cornell and Allen Walker return to form a good mix in the second line of defense. Cornell is a better run-stopper and Walker is a better pass defender.
The secondary will take a step back with just one starter returning. Safety Johnny Brown finished second with 81 tackles last year.
Coach Houston Nutt’s Rebels benefit from a great schedule. Ole Miss could easily open 5-0 and should be no worse than 4-1. The Rebels then get an off week to prepare for their October 16 game at Alabama. We believe Ole Miss will win eight regular season games for the third consecutive year.
| Team |
Mississippi State Bulldogs |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Head Coach |
Dan Mullen |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colors |
Maroon and White |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| City |
Starkville, MS |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Record |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
3-5 |
| Overall |
5-7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PiRate Rating |
110.8 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National Rating |
36 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 Prediction |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference |
3-5 |
| Overall |
6-6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Strengths: |
Defensive Line |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weaknesses: |
Quarterback, Receiver |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-Conf: |
Memphis, Alcorn State, @ Houston, U A B |
| |
|
| Key Games: |
Kentucky, Arkansas, @ Ole Miss |
| |
|
| Offense Pred. |
24-28 points & 375-400 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Defense Pred. |
23-27 points & 360-380 yards |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Outlook |
Coach Dan Mullen’s first year in Starkville almost produced bowl eligibility when the Bulldogs had been picked to possibly lose 10 games. If not for a mix-up at the line of scrimmage at the end of the LSU game, Miss. State would have gone 6-6 instead of 5-7.
We think the Bulldogs will get that extra win this year and earn a trip back to a bowl for the first time in three years. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball.
One position that must be replaced is at quarterback. Chris Relf has a rifle arm, and he is mobile. He should add another dimension to the Bulldog offense. He also should cut down on the number of interceptions State quarterbacks threw last season (17). Tyler Russell, a redshirt freshman, should also see some playing time this year.
There isn’t a lot of talent at wide receiver, but the top two pass catchers do return. Wideout Chad Bumphis and Tight end Marcus Green have some breakaway potential, but they won’t remind anybody of Mardye McDole.
Replacing Anthony Dixon at running back is not possible with the running backs on the roster; Vick Ballard is expected to get the lion’s share of the load, but the roster is really thin behind him.
The offensive line returns four experienced starters, and they should give Relf room to run and time to pass. We would not be surprised if Relf led the Maroons in rushing yards while passing for close to 2,000 yards.
The biggest loss on defense may have been defensive coordinator Carl Torbush. Now, the Bulldogs will have their third DC in three years. Chris Wilson from Oklahoma and Manny Diaz from Middle Tennessee will share the responsibility.
Mississippi State’s defense will rely on a talented defensive line to set the tone. End Pernell McPhee is one of the best in the league. He comes off a year in which he had five sacks, 12 total tackles for loss, and four knocked down passes. New starter Sean Ferguson will give State a strong end tandem.
The top two returning tacklers return to the second line of defense. Linebackers Chris White and K.J. Wright combined for 157 stops a year ago.
The Bulldogs have a terrific trio of starting defensive backs returning this year. Safeties Charles Mitchell and Johnathan Banks both intercepted four passes last year; cornerback Corey Broomfield had six!
Look for State to improve on this side of the ball and allow fewer points this year. We believe it will bring them one more win and bowl eligibility.
Coming Next Week: The initial PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings for the NFL, and the entire first week of the college football season
The Pi-Rate Ratings 