The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 22, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, February 22, 2019

PiRate Ratings Spreads

For Major Conferences and Top 25 Teams

Games Scheduled for:

Saturday

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Louisville

114.1

3.0

Virginia

122.0

-4.9

Clemson

111.4

3.0

Boston College

104.2

10.2

Miami (Fla)

107.3

2.5

Georgia Tech

104.4

5.4

North Carolina

120.4

3.0

Florida St.

114.9

8.5

Notre Dame

105.5

3.0

Virginia Tech

116.0

-7.5

Syracuse

111.3

3.0

Duke

124.1

-9.8

Temple

106.8

3.0

Tulsa

103.2

6.6

Houston

114.4

3.0

South Florida

103.5

13.9

Tulane

92.3

2.0

East Carolina

93.9

0.4

Wichita St.

104.5

3.0

Memphis

106.2

1.3

Oklahoma

111.4

3.0

Texas

112.2

2.2

Baylor

111.0

3.0

West Virginia

103.9

10.1

TCU

110.3

3.0

Iowa St.

115.3

-2.0

Kansas St.

111.8

3.0

Oklahoma St.

104.5

10.3

Texas Tech

116.7

3.0

Kansas

115.5

4.2

Providence

106.2

2.5

Marquette

112.9

-4.2

Creighton

109.3

3.0

Georgetown

106.8

5.5

St. John’s

108.9

2.0

Seton Hall

108.1

2.8

Illinois

107.2

2.5

Penn St.

108.6

1.1

Maryland

113.7

3.0

Ohio St.

111.2

5.5

Nebraska

110.9

3.0

Purdue

116.4

-2.5

Northwestern

107.1

2.0

Wisconsin

115.3

-6.2

Nevada

115.3

2.5

Fresno St.

107.2

10.6

USC

106.3

3.0

Oregon St.

106.0

3.3

Washington St.

98.7

3.0

Utah

103.5

-1.8

UCLA

105.2

3.0

Oregon

107.6

0.6

Washington

110.6

3.0

Colorado

106.3

7.3

LSU

113.1

3.0

Tennessee

118.2

-2.1

Kentucky

118.2

3.0

Auburn

116.2

5.0

Ole Miss

109.9

3.0

Georgia

103.5

9.4

Florida

112.2

3.0

Missouri

104.6

10.6

Mississippi St.

112.9

3.0

South Carolina

106.1

9.8

Alabama

108.1

3.0

Vanderbilt

103.3

7.8

Arkansas

107.2

3.0

Texas A&M

105.4

4.8

Gonzaga

123.8

3.0

BYU

106.1

20.7

 

Games Scheduled for:

Sunday

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

North Carolina St.

112.6

2.5

Wake Forest

99.8

15.3

Central Florida

108.8

3.0

SMU

105.0

6.8

Connectucut

105.5

3.0

Cincinnati

112.0

-3.5

Xavier

105.5

3.0

Villanova

113.5

-5.0

Michigan

117.4

1.5

Michigan St.

120.2

-1.3

Rutgers

105.4

2.5

Minnesota

108.5

-0.6

Arizona St.

108.8

3.0

California

93.6

18.2

Arizona

106.2

3.0

Stanford

104.0

5.2

 

Current PiRate Ratings (1-353)

Rk

Team

PiRate

Conf

1

Duke

124.1

ACC

2

Gonzaga

123.8

West Coast

3

Virginia

122.0

ACC

4

North Carolina

120.4

ACC

5

Michigan St.

120.2

Big Ten

6

Kentucky

118.2

SEC

7

Tennessee

118.2

SEC

8

Michigan

117.4

Big Ten

9

Texas Tech

116.7

Big 12

10

Purdue

116.4

Big Ten

11

Auburn

116.2

SEC

12

Virginia Tech

116.0

ACC

13

Kansas

115.5

Big 12

14

Nevada

115.3

Mtn West

15

Wisconsin

115.3

Big Ten

16

Iowa St.

115.3

Big 12

17

Florida St.

114.9

ACC

18

Houston

114.4

AAC

19

Louisville

114.1

ACC

20

Buffalo

113.9

Mid-Amer

21

Maryland

113.7

Big Ten

22

Villanova

113.5

Big East

23

LSU

113.1

SEC

24

Marquette

112.9

Big East

25

Mississippi St.

112.9

SEC

26

North Carolina St.

112.6

ACC

27

Iowa

112.3

Big Ten

28

Florida

112.2

SEC

29

Texas

112.2

Big 12

30

Cincinnati

112.0

AAC

31

Wofford

111.9

SoCon

32

Kansas St.

111.8

Big 12

33

Oklahoma

111.4

Big 12

34

Clemson

111.4

ACC

35

Syracuse

111.3

ACC

36

Ohio St.

111.2

Big Ten

37

Baylor

111.0

Big 12

38

Nebraska

110.9

Big Ten

39

Washington

110.6

Pac-12

40

Virginia Commonwealth

110.4

Atl 10

41

TCU

110.3

Big 12

42

Saint Mary’s

110.0

West Coast

43

Mississippi

109.9

SEC

44

Utah St.

109.6

Mtn West

45

Lipscomb

109.5

Atl Sun

46

Indiana

109.4

Big Ten

47

Creighton

109.3

Big East

48

Butler

109.1

Big East

49

St. John’s

108.9

Big East

50

Arizona St.

108.8

Pac-12

51

Central Florida

108.8

AAC

52

San Francisco

108.7

West Coast

53

Penn St.

108.6

Big Ten

54

Minnesota

108.5

Big Ten

55

Belmont

108.2

OH Valley

56

Alabama

108.1

SEC

57

Seton Hall

108.1

Big East

58

Murray St.

107.9

OH Valley

59

Furman

107.7

SoCon

60

Oregon

107.6

Pac-12

61

Dayton

107.5

Atl 10

62

Toledo

107.4

Mid-Amer

63

New Mexico St.

107.3

WAC

64

Miami (Fla)

107.3

ACC

65

Illinois

107.2

Big Ten

66

Arkansas

107.2

SEC

67

Fresno St.

107.2

Mtn West

68

Northwestern

107.1

Big Ten

69

East Tennessee St.

106.9

SoCon

70

Georgetown

106.8

Big East

71

Temple

106.8

AAC

72

Hofstra

106.6

Colonial

73

Vermont

106.6

Am East

74

Liberty

106.5

Atl Sun

75

South Dakota St.

106.3

Summit

76

USC

106.3

Pac-12

77

Colorado

106.3

Pac-12

78

Memphis

106.2

AAC

79

Providence

106.2

Big East

80

Yale

106.2

Ivy

81

Arizona

106.2

Pac-12

82

BYU

106.1

West Coast

83

South Carolina

106.1

SEC

84

Oregon St.

106.0

Pac-12

85

Davidson

106.0

Atl 10

86

Pittsburgh

105.7

ACC

87

Grand Canyon

105.7

WAC

88

Notre Dame

105.5

ACC

89

Xavier

105.5

Big East

90

Connecticut

105.5

AAC

91

Texas A&M

105.4

SEC

92

Rutgers

105.4

Big Ten

93

UCLA

105.2

Pac-12

94

SMU

105.0

AAC

95

Northern Kentucky

105.0

Horizon

96

San Diego

104.9

West Coast

97

UNC Greensboro

104.8

SoCon

98

Northeastern

104.7

Colonial

99

Missouri

104.6

SEC

100

Wichita St.

104.5

AAC

101

Oklahoma St.

104.5

Big 12

102

Old Dominion

104.5

CUSA

103

Georgia Tech

104.4

ACC

104

UC Irvine

104.4

Big West

105

Bowling Green

104.3

Mid-Amer

106

Georgia Southern

104.2

Sun Belt

107

Boston College

104.2

ACC

108

San Diego St.

104.2

Mtn West

109

Ball St.

104.1

Mid-Amer

110

Stanford

104.0

Pac-12

111

West Virginia

103.9

Big 12

112

Montana

103.9

Big Sky

113

Loyola (Chi)

103.9

Mo Valley

114

Texas St.

103.8

Sun Belt

115

DePaul

103.8

Big East

116

Akron

103.6

Mid-Amer

117

Harvard

103.6

Ivy

118

South Florida

103.5

AAC

119

Utah

103.5

Pac-12

120

Austin Peay

103.5

OH Valley

121

Georgia St.

103.5

Sun Belt

122

Georgia

103.5

SEC

123

Utah Valley

103.4

WAC

124

Vanderbilt

103.3

SEC

125

Charleston

103.3

Colonial

126

Tulsa

103.2

AAC

127

Jacksonville St.

103.2

OH Valley

128

Saint Louis

103.2

Atl 10

129

Penn

103.1

Ivy

130

Western Kentucky

103.1

CUSA

131

Boise St.

102.7

Mtn West

132

Southern Miss

102.6

CUSA

133

Radford

102.5

Big South

134

North Texas

102.3

CUSA

135

Wright St.

102.3

Horizon

136

Drake

102.3

Mo Valley

137

Louisiana Tech

102.1

CUSA

138

St. Bonaventure

101.9

Atl 10

139

Loyola Marymount

101.8

West Coast

140

Central Michigan

101.7

Mid-Amer

141

George Mason

101.7

Atl 10

142

Bucknell

101.6

Patriot

143

Colgate

101.5

Patriot

144

Miami (O)

101.4

Mid-Amer

145

Louisiana Monroe

101.3

Sun Belt

146

Kent St.

101.3

Mid-Amer

147

Southern Illinois

101.3

Mo Valley

148

Rhode Island

101.2

Atl 10

149

UC Santa Barbara

101.2

Big West

150

Brown

101.1

Ivy

151

Lehigh

100.9

Patriot

152

UNLV

100.8

Mtn West

153

Northern Illinois

100.7

Mid-Amer

154

Abilene Christian

100.6

Sthland

155

Duquesne

100.6

Atl 10

156

Samford

100.6

SoCon

157

Coastal Carolina

100.5

Sun Belt

158

Missouri St.

100.4

Mo Valley

159

Cal St. Fullerton

100.3

Big West

160

Winthrop

100.3

Big South

161

Eastern Michigan

100.3

Mid-Amer

162

UTSA

100.2

CUSA

163

Pepperdine

100.0

West Coast

164

Stony Brook

100.0

Am East

165

Omaha

99.9

Summit

166

New Mexico

99.9

Mtn West

167

Northern Colorado

99.8

Big Sky

168

Wake Forest

99.8

ACC

169

Princeton

99.8

Ivy

170

UAB

99.6

CUSA

171

Purdue Fort Wayne

99.6

Summit

172

Mercer

99.6

SoCon

173

Weber St.

99.5

Big Sky

174

Northern Iowa

99.4

Mo Valley

175

Sam Houston St.

99.3

Sthland

176

Bradley

99.2

Mo Valley

177

Louisiana

99.2

Sun Belt

178

Florida Atlantic

99.1

CUSA

179

Gardner Webb

99.0

Big South

180

Richmond

99.0

Atl 10

181

Hartford

98.8

Am East

182

Washington St.

98.7

Pac-12

183

NJIT

98.7

Atl Sun

184

Dartmouth

98.6

Ivy

185

Saint Joseph’s

98.6

Atl 10

186

Campbell

98.6

Big South

187

Rider

98.6

Metro Atl

188

Valparaiso

98.5

Mo Valley

189

Hawaii

98.5

Big West

190

Appalachian St.

98.4

Sun Belt

191

IUPUI

98.4

Horizon

192

Seattle

98.3

WAC

193

UT Arlington

98.3

Sun Belt

194

Presbyterian

98.3

Big South

195

Colorado St.

98.2

Mtn West

196

Marshall

98.1

CUSA

197

Massachusetts

98.0

Atl 10

198

North Dakota St.

98.0

Summit

199

Illinois St.

97.9

Mo Valley

200

Charleston Southern

97.9

Big South

201

Maryland Baltimore Co.

97.9

Am East

202

American

97.8

Patriot

203

Green Bay

97.7

Horizon

204

UT Rio Grande Valley

97.7

WAC

205

Indiana St.

97.6

Mo Valley

206

Texas Southern

97.5

SWAC

207

North Florida

97.5

Atl Sun

208

La Salle

97.4

Atl 10

209

Oakland

97.4

Horizon

210

Cal St. Bakersfield

97.3

WAC

211

Little Rock

97.3

Sun Belt

212

Santa Clara

97.2

West Coast

213

William & Mary

97.2

Colonial

214

Illinois Chicago

97.1

Horizon

215

Pacific

97.1

West Coast

216

Hampton

97.0

Big South

217

South Alabama

97.0

Sun Belt

218

Lamar

97.0

Sthland

219

Fordham

96.9

Atl 10

220

Iona

96.8

Metro Atl

221

High Point

96.7

Big South

222

Cornell

96.7

Ivy

223

South Dakota

96.7

Summit

224

Troy

96.6

Sun Belt

225

Florida Int’l.

96.6

CUSA

226

UC Davis

96.5

Big West

227

Quinnipiac

96.5

Metro Atl

228

California Baptist

96.5

WAC

229

Boston University

96.5

Patriot

230

Long Beach St.

96.4

Big West

231

Holy Cross

96.4

Patriot

232

Evansville

96.3

Mo Valley

233

Ohio

96.3

Mid-Amer

234

Marist

96.2

Metro Atl

235

St. Francis (PA)

96.2

Northeast

236

Columbia

96.0

Ivy

237

Fairleigh Dickinson

95.9

Northeast

238

Florida Gulf Coast

95.9

Atl Sun

239

Army

95.7

Patriot

240

Drexel

95.5

Colonial

241

Missouri Kansas City

95.4

WAC

242

Delaware

95.4

Colonial

243

Robert Morris

95.3

Northeast

244

Prairie View A&M

95.3

SWAC

245

Jacksonville

95.2

Atl Sun

246

Norfolk St.

95.2

MEAC

247

Canisius

95.1

Metro Atl

248

Air Force

95.1

Mtn West

249

The Citadel

95.1

SoCon

250

Siena

95.0

Metro Atl

251

Towson

95.0

Colonial

252

Sacramento St.

95.0

Big Sky

253

Morehead St.

95.0

OH Valley

254

UMass Lowell

95.0

Am East

255

Detroit

94.9

Horizon

256

Eastern Kentucky

94.9

OH Valley

257

UNC Wilmington

94.8

Colonial

258

Montana St.

94.8

Big Sky

259

Sacred Heart

94.8

Northeast

260

George Washington

94.7

Atl 10

261

Chattanooga

94.6

SoCon

262

St. Francis (Bklyn)

94.4

Northeast

263

Middle Tennessee

94.4

CUSA

264

Eastern Washington

94.4

Big Sky

265

Arkansas St.

94.4

Sun Belt

266

Rice

94.3

CUSA

267

Western Michigan

94.3

Mid-Amer

268

New Orleans

94.2

Sthland

269

James Madison

94.2

Colonial

270

Grambling St.

94.1

SWAC

271

Youngstown St.

94.1

Horizon

272

Houston Baptist

94.0

Sthland

273

Long Island

94.0

Northeast

274

Wagner

93.9

Northeast

275

Portland St.

93.9

Big Sky

276

North Dakota

93.9

Summit

277

Texas A&M CC

93.9

Sthland

278

East Carolina

93.9

AAC

279

Southeastern Louisiana

93.8

Sthland

280

Southern Utah

93.8

Big Sky

281

North Carolina Central

93.7

MEAC

282

Albany

93.6

Am East

283

Loyola (MD)

93.6

Patriot

284

California

93.6

Pac-12

285

UTEP

93.5

CUSA

286

Monmouth

93.4

Metro Atl

287

Western Carolina

93.4

SoCon

288

Lafayette

93.3

Patriot

289

Fairfield

93.1

Metro Atl

290

UT Martin

93.0

OH Valley

291

Cal St. Northridge

93.0

Big West

292

Western Illinois

92.9

Summit

293

Eastern Illinois

92.9

OH Valley

294

Oral Roberts

92.8

Summit

295

Tennessee St.

92.8

OH Valley

296

Bethune Cookman

92.8

MEAC

297

Milwaukee

92.6

Horizon

298

Niagara

92.6

Metro Atl

299

Stephen F. Austin

92.6

Sthland

300

Longwood

92.4

Big South

301

Tulane

92.3

AAC

302

Charlotte

92.2

CUSA

303

Navy

92.0

Patriot

304

Central Arkansas

91.9

Sthland

305

UC Riverside

91.9

Big West

306

Cleveland St.

91.8

Horizon

307

Central Connecticut

91.7

Northeast

308

Northern Arizona

91.6

Big Sky

309

North Carolina A&T

91.6

MEAC

310

Idaho St.

91.6

Big Sky

311

Manhattan

91.3

Metro Atl

312

Southeast Missouri St.

91.3

OH Valley

313

Alabama St.

91.1

SWAC

314

Saint Peter’s

91.1

Metro Atl

315

Howard

91.0

MEAC

316

Denver

91.0

Summit

317

Nicholls St.

90.8

Sthland

318

Maine

90.7

Am East

319

North Alabama

90.7

Atl Sun

320

VMI

90.7

SoCon

321

Elon

90.4

Colonial

322

Florida A&M

90.2

MEAC

323

Wyoming

90.2

Mtn West

324

Mount St. Mary’s

90.1

Northeast

325

McNeese St.

90.1

Sthland

326

Portland

89.9

West Coast

327

Arkansas Pine Bluff

89.8

SWAC

328

Tennessee Tech

89.3

OH Valley

329

Jackson St.

88.8

SWAC

330

Binghamton

88.8

Am East

331

Bryant

88.7

Northeast

332

Cal Poly

88.6

Big West

333

Morgan St.

88.5

MEAC

334

USC Upstate

88.5

Big South

335

SIU Edwardsville

88.2

OH Valley

336

Stetson

87.8

Atl Sun

337

South Carolina St.

87.3

MEAC

338

Northwestern St.

87.3

Sthland

339

Southern

86.6

SWAC

340

Kennesaw St.

85.7

Atl Sun

341

UNC Asheville

85.6

Big South

342

San Jose St.

85.5

Mtn West

343

Incarnate Word

85.4

Sthland

344

Coppin St.

85.3

MEAC

345

New Hampshire

85.3

Am East

346

Alabama A&M

85.3

SWAC

347

Savannah St.

85.1

MEAC

348

Alcorn St.

84.9

SWAC

349

Idaho

84.8

Big Sky

350

Mississippi Valley St.

83.0

SWAC

351

Maryland Eastern Shore

80.8

MEAC

352

Delaware St.

79.8

MEAC

353

Chicago St.

79.3

WAC

PiRate Ratings (Alphabetical)

Rk

Team

PiRate

Conf

154

Abilene Christian

100.6

Sthland

248

Air Force

95.1

Mtn West

116

Akron

103.6

Mid-Amer

56

Alabama

108.1

SEC

346

Alabama A&M

85.3

SWAC

313

Alabama St.

91.1

SWAC

282

Albany

93.6

Am East

348

Alcorn St.

84.9

SWAC

202

American

97.8

Patriot

190

Appalachian St.

98.4

Sun Belt

81

Arizona

106.2

Pac-12

50

Arizona St.

108.8

Pac-12

66

Arkansas

107.2

SEC

327

Arkansas Pine Bluff

89.8

SWAC

265

Arkansas St.

94.4

Sun Belt

239

Army

95.7

Patriot

11

Auburn

116.2

SEC

120

Austin Peay

103.5

OH Valley

109

Ball St.

104.1

Mid-Amer

37

Baylor

111.0

Big 12

55

Belmont

108.2

OH Valley

296

Bethune Cookman

92.8

MEAC

330

Binghamton

88.8

Am East

131

Boise St.

102.7

Mtn West

107

Boston College

104.2

ACC

229

Boston University

96.5

Patriot

105

Bowling Green

104.3

Mid-Amer

176

Bradley

99.2

Mo Valley

150

Brown

101.1

Ivy

331

Bryant

88.7

Northeast

142

Bucknell

101.6

Patriot

20

Buffalo

113.9

Mid-Amer

48

Butler

109.1

Big East

82

BYU

106.1

West Coast

332

Cal Poly

88.6

Big West

210

Cal St. Bakersfield

97.3

WAC

159

Cal St. Fullerton

100.3

Big West

291

Cal St. Northridge

93.0

Big West

284

California

93.6

Pac-12

228

California Baptist

96.5

WAC

186

Campbell

98.6

Big South

247

Canisius

95.1

Metro Atl

304

Central Arkansas

91.9

Sthland

307

Central Connecticut

91.7

Northeast

51

Central Florida

108.8

AAC

140

Central Michigan

101.7

Mid-Amer

125

Charleston

103.3

Colonial

200

Charleston Southern

97.9

Big South

302

Charlotte

92.2

CUSA

261

Chattanooga

94.6

SoCon

353

Chicago St.

79.3

WAC

30

Cincinnati

112.0

AAC

34

Clemson

111.4

ACC

306

Cleveland St.

91.8

Horizon

157

Coastal Carolina

100.5

Sun Belt

143

Colgate

101.5

Patriot

77

Colorado

106.3

Pac-12

195

Colorado St.

98.2

Mtn West

236

Columbia

96.0

Ivy

90

Connecticut

105.5

AAC

344

Coppin St.

85.3

MEAC

222

Cornell

96.7

Ivy

47

Creighton

109.3

Big East

184

Dartmouth

98.6

Ivy

85

Davidson

106.0

Atl 10

61

Dayton

107.5

Atl 10

242

Delaware

95.4

Colonial

352

Delaware St.

79.8

MEAC

316

Denver

91.0

Summit

115

DePaul

103.8

Big East

255

Detroit

94.9

Horizon

136

Drake

102.3

Mo Valley

240

Drexel

95.5

Colonial

1

Duke

124.1

ACC

155

Duquesne

100.6

Atl 10

278

East Carolina

93.9

AAC

69

East Tennessee St.

106.9

SoCon

293

Eastern Illinois

92.9

OH Valley

256

Eastern Kentucky

94.9

OH Valley

161

Eastern Michigan

100.3

Mid-Amer

264

Eastern Washington

94.4

Big Sky

321

Elon

90.4

Colonial

232

Evansville

96.3

Mo Valley

289

Fairfield

93.1

Metro Atl

237

Fairleigh Dickinson

95.9

Northeast

28

Florida

112.2

SEC

322

Florida A&M

90.2

MEAC

178

Florida Atlantic

99.1

CUSA

238

Florida Gulf Coast

95.9

Atl Sun

225

Florida Int’l.

96.6

CUSA

17

Florida St.

114.9

ACC

219

Fordham

96.9

Atl 10

67

Fresno St.

107.2

Mtn West

59

Furman

107.7

SoCon

179

Gardner Webb

99.0

Big South

141

George Mason

101.7

Atl 10

260

George Washington

94.7

Atl 10

70

Georgetown

106.8

Big East

122

Georgia

103.5

SEC

106

Georgia Southern

104.2

Sun Belt

121

Georgia St.

103.5

Sun Belt

103

Georgia Tech

104.4

ACC

2

Gonzaga

123.8

West Coast

270

Grambling St.

94.1

SWAC

87

Grand Canyon

105.7

WAC

203

Green Bay

97.7

Horizon

216

Hampton

97.0

Big South

181

Hartford

98.8

Am East

117

Harvard

103.6

Ivy

189

Hawaii

98.5

Big West

221

High Point

96.7

Big South

72

Hofstra

106.6

Colonial

231

Holy Cross

96.4

Patriot

18

Houston

114.4

AAC

272

Houston Baptist

94.0

Sthland

315

Howard

91.0

MEAC

349

Idaho

84.8

Big Sky

310

Idaho St.

91.6

Big Sky

65

Illinois

107.2

Big Ten

214

Illinois Chicago

97.1

Horizon

199

Illinois St.

97.9

Mo Valley

343

Incarnate Word

85.4

Sthland

46

Indiana

109.4

Big Ten

205

Indiana St.

97.6

Mo Valley

220

Iona

96.8

Metro Atl

27

Iowa

112.3

Big Ten

16

Iowa St.

115.3

Big 12

191

IUPUI

98.4

Horizon

329

Jackson St.

88.8

SWAC

245

Jacksonville

95.2

Atl Sun

127

Jacksonville St.

103.2

OH Valley

269

James Madison

94.2

Colonial

13

Kansas

115.5

Big 12

32

Kansas St.

111.8

Big 12

340

Kennesaw St.

85.7

Atl Sun

146

Kent St.

101.3

Mid-Amer

6

Kentucky

118.2

SEC

208

La Salle

97.4

Atl 10

288

Lafayette

93.3

Patriot

218

Lamar

97.0

Sthland

151

Lehigh

100.9

Patriot

74

Liberty

106.5

Atl Sun

45

Lipscomb

109.5

Atl Sun

211

Little Rock

97.3

Sun Belt

230

Long Beach St.

96.4

Big West

273

Long Island

94.0

Northeast

300

Longwood

92.4

Big South

177

Louisiana

99.2

Sun Belt

145

Louisiana Monroe

101.3

Sun Belt

137

Louisiana Tech

102.1

CUSA

19

Louisville

114.1

ACC

113

Loyola (Chi)

103.9

Mo Valley

283

Loyola (MD)

93.6

Patriot

139

Loyola Marymount

101.8

West Coast

23

LSU

113.1

SEC

318

Maine

90.7

Am East

311

Manhattan

91.3

Metro Atl

234

Marist

96.2

Metro Atl

24

Marquette

112.9

Big East

196

Marshall

98.1

CUSA

21

Maryland

113.7

Big Ten

201

Maryland Baltimore Co.

97.9

Am East

351

Maryland Eastern Shore

80.8

MEAC

197

Massachusetts

98.0

Atl 10

325

McNeese St.

90.1

Sthland

78

Memphis

106.2

AAC

172

Mercer

99.6

SoCon

64

Miami (Fla)

107.3

ACC

144

Miami (O)

101.4

Mid-Amer

8

Michigan

117.4

Big Ten

5

Michigan St.

120.2

Big Ten

263

Middle Tennessee

94.4

CUSA

297

Milwaukee

92.6

Horizon

54

Minnesota

108.5

Big Ten

43

Mississippi

109.9

SEC

25

Mississippi St.

112.9

SEC

350

Mississippi Valley St.

83.0

SWAC

99

Missouri

104.6

SEC

241

Missouri Kansas City

95.4

WAC

158

Missouri St.

100.4

Mo Valley

286

Monmouth

93.4

Metro Atl

112

Montana

103.9

Big Sky

258

Montana St.

94.8

Big Sky

253

Morehead St.

95.0

OH Valley

333

Morgan St.

88.5

MEAC

324

Mount St. Mary’s

90.1

Northeast

58

Murray St.

107.9

OH Valley

303

Navy

92.0

Patriot

38

Nebraska

110.9

Big Ten

14

Nevada

115.3

Mtn West

345

New Hampshire

85.3

Am East

166

New Mexico

99.9

Mtn West

63

New Mexico St.

107.3

WAC

268

New Orleans

94.2

Sthland

298

Niagara

92.6

Metro Atl

317

Nicholls St.

90.8

Sthland

183

NJIT

98.7

Atl Sun

246

Norfolk St.

95.2

MEAC

319

North Alabama

90.7

Atl Sun

4

North Carolina

120.4

ACC

309

North Carolina A&T

91.6

MEAC

281

North Carolina Central

93.7

MEAC

26

North Carolina St.

112.6

ACC

276

North Dakota

93.9

Summit

198

North Dakota St.

98.0

Summit

207

North Florida

97.5

Atl Sun

134

North Texas

102.3

CUSA

98

Northeastern

104.7

Colonial

308

Northern Arizona

91.6

Big Sky

167

Northern Colorado

99.8

Big Sky

153

Northern Illinois

100.7

Mid-Amer

174

Northern Iowa

99.4

Mo Valley

95

Northern Kentucky

105.0

Horizon

68

Northwestern

107.1

Big Ten

338

Northwestern St.

87.3

Sthland

88

Notre Dame

105.5

ACC

209

Oakland

97.4

Horizon

233

Ohio

96.3

Mid-Amer

36

Ohio St.

111.2

Big Ten

33

Oklahoma

111.4

Big 12

101

Oklahoma St.

104.5

Big 12

102

Old Dominion

104.5

CUSA

165

Omaha

99.9

Summit

294

Oral Roberts

92.8

Summit

60

Oregon

107.6

Pac-12

84

Oregon St.

106.0

Pac-12

215

Pacific

97.1

West Coast

129

Penn

103.1

Ivy

53

Penn St.

108.6

Big Ten

163

Pepperdine

100.0

West Coast

86

Pittsburgh

105.7

ACC

326

Portland

89.9

West Coast

275

Portland St.

93.9

Big Sky

244

Prairie View A&M

95.3

SWAC

194

Presbyterian

98.3

Big South

169

Princeton

99.8

Ivy

79

Providence

106.2

Big East

10

Purdue

116.4

Big Ten

171

Purdue Fort Wayne

99.6

Summit

227

Quinnipiac

96.5

Metro Atl

133

Radford

102.5

Big South

148

Rhode Island

101.2

Atl 10

266

Rice

94.3

CUSA

180

Richmond

99.0

Atl 10

187

Rider

98.6

Metro Atl

243

Robert Morris

95.3

Northeast

92

Rutgers

105.4

Big Ten

252

Sacramento St.

95.0

Big Sky

259

Sacred Heart

94.8

Northeast

185

Saint Joseph’s

98.6

Atl 10

128

Saint Louis

103.2

Atl 10

42

Saint Mary’s

110.0

West Coast

314

Saint Peter’s

91.1

Metro Atl

175

Sam Houston St.

99.3

Sthland

156

Samford

100.6

SoCon

96

San Diego

104.9

West Coast

108

San Diego St.

104.2

Mtn West

52

San Francisco

108.7

West Coast

342

San Jose St.

85.5

Mtn West

212

Santa Clara

97.2

West Coast

347

Savannah St.

85.1

MEAC

192

Seattle

98.3

WAC

57

Seton Hall

108.1

Big East

250

Siena

95.0

Metro Atl

335

SIU Edwardsville

88.2

OH Valley

94

SMU

105.0

AAC

217

South Alabama

97.0

Sun Belt

83

South Carolina

106.1

SEC

337

South Carolina St.

87.3

MEAC

223

South Dakota

96.7

Summit

75

South Dakota St.

106.3

Summit

118

South Florida

103.5

AAC

312

Southeast Missouri St.

91.3

OH Valley

279

Southeastern Louisiana

93.8

Sthland

339

Southern

86.6

SWAC

147

Southern Illinois

101.3

Mo Valley

132

Southern Miss

102.6

CUSA

280

Southern Utah

93.8

Big Sky

138

St. Bonaventure

101.9

Atl 10

262

St. Francis (Bklyn)

94.4

Northeast

235

St. Francis (PA)

96.2

Northeast

49

St. John’s

108.9

Big East

110

Stanford

104.0

Pac-12

299

Stephen F. Austin

92.6

Sthland

336

Stetson

87.8

Atl Sun

164

Stony Brook

100.0

Am East

35

Syracuse

111.3

ACC

41

TCU

110.3

Big 12

71

Temple

106.8

AAC

7

Tennessee

118.2

SEC

295

Tennessee St.

92.8

OH Valley

328

Tennessee Tech

89.3

OH Valley

29

Texas

112.2

Big 12

91

Texas A&M

105.4

SEC

277

Texas A&M CC

93.9

Sthland

206

Texas Southern

97.5

SWAC

114

Texas St.

103.8

Sun Belt

9

Texas Tech

116.7

Big 12

249

The Citadel

95.1

SoCon

62

Toledo

107.4

Mid-Amer

251

Towson

95.0

Colonial

224

Troy

96.6

Sun Belt

301

Tulane

92.3

AAC

126

Tulsa

103.2

AAC

170

UAB

99.6

CUSA

226

UC Davis

96.5

Big West

104

UC Irvine

104.4

Big West

305

UC Riverside

91.9

Big West

149

UC Santa Barbara

101.2

Big West

93

UCLA

105.2

Pac-12

254

UMass Lowell

95.0

Am East

341

UNC Asheville

85.6

Big South

97

UNC Greensboro

104.8

SoCon

257

UNC Wilmington

94.8

Colonial

152

UNLV

100.8

Mtn West

76

USC

106.3

Pac-12

334

USC Upstate

88.5

Big South

193

UT Arlington

98.3

Sun Belt

290

UT Martin

93.0

OH Valley

204

UT Rio Grande Valley

97.7

WAC

119

Utah

103.5

Pac-12

44

Utah St.

109.6

Mtn West

123

Utah Valley

103.4

WAC

285

UTEP

93.5

CUSA

162

UTSA

100.2

CUSA

188

Valparaiso

98.5

Mo Valley

124

Vanderbilt

103.3

SEC

73

Vermont

106.6

Am East

22

Villanova

113.5

Big East

3

Virginia

122.0

ACC

40

Virginia Commonwealth

110.4

Atl 10

12

Virginia Tech

116.0

ACC

320

VMI

90.7

SoCon

274

Wagner

93.9

Northeast

168

Wake Forest

99.8

ACC

39

Washington

110.6

Pac-12

182

Washington St.

98.7

Pac-12

173

Weber St.

99.5

Big Sky

111

West Virginia

103.9

Big 12

287

Western Carolina

93.4

SoCon

292

Western Illinois

92.9

Summit

130

Western Kentucky

103.1

CUSA

267

Western Michigan

94.3

Mid-Amer

100

Wichita St.

104.5

AAC

213

William & Mary

97.2

Colonial

160

Winthrop

100.3

Big South

15

Wisconsin

115.3

Big Ten

31

Wofford

111.9

SoCon

135

Wright St.

102.3

Horizon

323

Wyoming

90.2

Mtn West

89

Xavier

105.5

Big East

80

Yale

106.2

Ivy

271

Youngstown St.

94.1

Horizon

 

PiRate Ratings (by Conference)

#

America East

PiRate

73

Vermont

106.6

164

Stony Brook

100.0

181

Hartford

98.8

201

Maryland Baltimore Co.

97.9

254

UMass Lowell

95.0

282

Albany

93.6

318

Maine

90.7

330

Binghamton

88.8

345

New Hampshire

85.3

#

American Athletic

PiRate

18

Houston

114.4

30

Cincinnati

112.0

51

Central Florida

108.8

71

Temple

106.8

78

Memphis

106.2

90

Connecticut

105.5

94

SMU

105.0

100

Wichita St.

104.5

118

South Florida

103.5

126

Tulsa

103.2

278

East Carolina

93.9

301

Tulane

92.3

#

Atlantic 10

PiRate

40

Virginia Commonwealth

110.4

61

Dayton

107.5

85

Davidson

106.0

128

Saint Louis

103.2

138

St. Bonaventure

101.9

141

George Mason

101.7

148

Rhode Island

101.2

155

Duquesne

100.6

180

Richmond

99.0

185

Saint Joseph’s

98.6

197

Massachusetts

98.0

208

La Salle

97.4

219

Fordham

96.9

260

George Washington

94.7

#

Atlantic Coast

PiRate

1

Duke

124.1

3

Virginia

122.0

4

North Carolina

120.4

12

Virginia Tech

116.0

17

Florida St.

114.9

19

Louisville

114.1

26

North Carolina St.

112.6

34

Clemson

111.4

35

Syracuse

111.3

64

Miami (Fla)

107.3

86

Pittsburgh

105.7

88

Notre Dame

105.5

103

Georgia Tech

104.4

107

Boston College

104.2

168

Wake Forest

99.8

#

Atlantic Sun

PiRate

45

Lipscomb

109.5

74

Liberty

106.5

183

NJIT

98.7

207

North Florida

97.5

238

Florida Gulf Coast

95.9

245

Jacksonville

95.2

319

North Alabama

90.7

336

Stetson

87.8

340

Kennesaw St.

85.7

#

Big 12

PiRate

9

Texas Tech

116.7

13

Kansas

115.5

16

Iowa St.

115.3

29

Texas

112.2

32

Kansas St.

111.8

33

Oklahoma

111.4

37

Baylor

111.0

41

TCU

110.3

101

Oklahoma St.

104.5

111

West Virginia

103.9

#

Big East

PiRate

22

Villanova

113.5

24

Marquette

112.9

47

Creighton

109.3

48

Butler

109.1

49

St. John’s

108.9

57

Seton Hall

108.1

70

Georgetown

106.8

79

Providence

106.2

89

Xavier

105.5

115

DePaul

103.8

#

Big Sky

PiRate

112

Montana

103.9

167

Northern Colorado

99.8

173

Weber St.

99.5

252

Sacramento St.

95.0

258

Montana St.

94.8

264

Eastern Washington

94.4

275

Portland St.

93.9

280

Southern Utah

93.8

308

Northern Arizona

91.6

310

Idaho St.

91.6

349

Idaho

84.8

#

Big South

PiRate

133

Radford

102.5

160

Winthrop

100.3

179

Gardner Webb

99.0

186

Campbell

98.6

194

Presbyterian

98.3

200

Charleston Southern

97.9

216

Hampton

97.0

221

High Point

96.7

300

Longwood

92.4

334

USC Upstate

88.5

341

UNC Asheville

85.6

#

Big Ten

PiRate

5

Michigan St.

120.2

8

Michigan

117.4

10

Purdue

116.4

15

Wisconsin

115.3

21

Maryland

113.7

27

Iowa

112.3

36

Ohio St.

111.2

38

Nebraska

110.9

46

Indiana

109.4

53

Penn St.

108.6

54

Minnesota

108.5

65

Illinois

107.2

68

Northwestern

107.1

92

Rutgers

105.4

#

Big West

PiRate

104

UC Irvine

104.4

149

UC Santa Barbara

101.2

159

Cal St. Fullerton

100.3

189

Hawaii

98.5

226

UC Davis

96.5

230

Long Beach St.

96.4

291

Cal St. Northridge

93.0

305

UC Riverside

91.9

332

Cal Poly

88.6

#

Colonial Athletic

PiRate

72

Hofstra

106.6

98

Northeastern

104.7

125

Charleston

103.3

213

William & Mary

97.2

240

Drexel

95.5

242

Delaware

95.4

251

Towson

95.0

257

UNC Wilmington

94.8

269

James Madison

94.2

321

Elon

90.4

#

Conference USA

PiRate

102

Old Dominion

104.5

130

Western Kentucky

103.1

132

Southern Miss

102.6

134

North Texas

102.3

137

Louisiana Tech

102.1

162

UTSA

100.2

170

UAB

99.6

178

Florida Atlantic

99.1

196

Marshall

98.1

225

Florida Int’l.

96.6

263

Middle Tennessee

94.4

266

Rice

94.3

285

UTEP

93.5

302

Charlotte

92.2

#

Horizon

PiRate

95

Northern Kentucky

105.0

135

Wright St.

102.3

191

IUPUI

98.4

203

Green Bay

97.7

209

Oakland

97.4

214

Illinois Chicago

97.1

255

Detroit

94.9

271

Youngstown St.

94.1

297

Milwaukee

92.6

306

Cleveland St.

91.8

#

Ivy

PiRate

80

Yale

106.2

117

Harvard

103.6

129

Penn

103.1

150

Brown

101.1

169

Princeton

99.8

184

Dartmouth

98.6

222

Cornell

96.7

236

Columbia

96.0

#

Metro Atlantic

PiRate

187

Rider

98.6

220

Iona

96.8

227

Quinnipiac

96.5

234

Marist

96.2

247

Canisius

95.1

250

Siena

95.0

286

Monmouth

93.4

289

Fairfield

93.1

298

Niagara

92.6

311

Manhattan

91.3

314

Saint Peter’s

91.1

#

Mid-American

PiRate

20

Buffalo

113.9

62

Toledo

107.4

105

Bowling Green

104.3

109

Ball St.

104.1

116

Akron

103.6

140

Central Michigan

101.7

144

Miami (O)

101.4

146

Kent St.

101.3

153

Northern Illinois

100.7

161

Eastern Michigan

100.3

233

Ohio

96.3

267

Western Michigan

94.3

#

Mideastern Athletic

PiRate

246

Norfolk St.

95.2

281

North Carolina Central

93.7

296

Bethune Cookman

92.8

309

North Carolina A&T

91.6

315

Howard

91.0

322

Florida A&M

90.2

333

Morgan St.

88.5

337

South Carolina St.

87.3

344

Coppin St.

85.3

347

Savannah St.

85.1

351

Maryland Eastern Shore

80.8

352

Delaware St.

79.8

#

Missouri Valley

PiRate

113

Loyola (Chi)

103.9

136

Drake

102.3

147

Southern Illinois

101.3

158

Missouri St.

100.4

174

Northern Iowa

99.4

176

Bradley

99.2

188

Valparaiso

98.5

199

Illinois St.

97.9

205

Indiana St.

97.6

232

Evansville

96.3

#

Mountain West

PiRate

14

Nevada

115.3

44

Utah St.

109.6

67

Fresno St.

107.2

108

San Diego St.

104.2

131

Boise St.

102.7

152

UNLV

100.8

166

New Mexico

99.9

195

Colorado St.

98.2

248

Air Force

95.1

323

Wyoming

90.2

342

San Jose St.

85.5

#

Northeast

PiRate

235

St. Francis (PA)

96.2

237

Fairleigh Dickinson

95.9

243

Robert Morris

95.3

259

Sacred Heart

94.8

262

St. Francis (Bklyn)

94.4

273

Long Island

94.0

274

Wagner

93.9

307

Central Connecticut

91.7

324

Mount St. Mary’s

90.1

331

Bryant

88.7

#

Ohio Valley

PiRate

55

Belmont

108.2

58

Murray St.

107.9

120

Austin Peay

103.5

127

Jacksonville St.

103.2

253

Morehead St.

95.0

256

Eastern Kentucky

94.9

290

UT Martin

93.0

293

Eastern Illinois

92.9

295

Tennessee St.

92.8

312

Southeast Missouri St.

91.3

328

Tennessee Tech

89.3

335

SIU Edwardsville

88.2

#

Pac-12

PiRate

39

Washington

110.6

50

Arizona St.

108.8

60

Oregon

107.6

76

USC

106.3

77

Colorado

106.3

81

Arizona

106.2

84

Oregon St.

106.0

93

UCLA

105.2

110

Stanford

104.0

119

Utah

103.5

182

Washington St.

98.7

284

California

93.6

#

Patriot

PiRate

142

Bucknell

101.6

143

Colgate

101.5

151

Lehigh

100.9

202

American

97.8

229

Boston University

96.5

231

Holy Cross

96.4

239

Army

95.7

283

Loyola (MD)

93.6

288

Lafayette

93.3

303

Navy

92.0

#

Southeastern

PiRate

6

Kentucky

118.2

7

Tennessee

118.2

11

Auburn

116.2

23

LSU

113.1

25

Mississippi St.

112.9

28

Florida

112.2

43

Mississippi

109.9

56

Alabama

108.1

66

Arkansas

107.2

83

South Carolina

106.1

91

Texas A&M

105.4

99

Missouri

104.6

122

Georgia

103.5

124

Vanderbilt

103.3

#

Southern

PiRate

31

Wofford

111.9

59

Furman

107.7

69

East Tennessee St.

106.9

97

UNC Greensboro

104.8

156

Samford

100.6

172

Mercer

99.6

249

The Citadel

95.1

261

Chattanooga

94.6

287

Western Carolina

93.4

320

VMI

90.7

#

Southland

PiRate

154

Abilene Christian

100.6

175

Sam Houston St.

99.3

218

Lamar

97.0

268

New Orleans

94.2

272

Houston Baptist

94.0

277

Texas A&M CC

93.9

279

Southeastern Louisiana

93.8

299

Stephen F. Austin

92.6

304

Central Arkansas

91.9

317

Nicholls St.

90.8

325

McNeese St.

90.1

338

Northwestern St.

87.3

343

Incarnate Word

85.4

#

Southwestern Athletic

PiRate

206

Texas Southern

97.5

244

Prairie View A&M

95.3

270

Grambling St.

94.1

313

Alabama St.

91.1

327

Arkansas Pine Bluff

89.8

329

Jackson St.

88.8

339

Southern

86.6

346

Alabama A&M

85.3

348

Alcorn St.

84.9

350

Mississippi Valley St.

83.0

#

Summit

PiRate

75

South Dakota St.

106.3

165

Omaha

99.9

171

Purdue Fort Wayne

99.6

198

North Dakota St.

98.0

223

South Dakota

96.7

276

North Dakota

93.9

292

Western Illinois

92.9

294

Oral Roberts

92.8

316

Denver

91.0

#

Sun Belt

PiRate

106

Georgia Southern

104.2

114

Texas St.

103.8

121

Georgia St.

103.5

145

Louisiana Monroe

101.3

157

Coastal Carolina

100.5

177

Louisiana

99.2

190

Appalachian St.

98.4

193

UT Arlington

98.3

211

Little Rock

97.3

217

South Alabama

97.0

224

Troy

96.6

265

Arkansas St.

94.4

#

West Coast

PiRate

2

Gonzaga

123.8

42

Saint Mary’s

110.0

52

San Francisco

108.7

82

BYU

106.1

96

San Diego

104.9

139

Loyola Marymount

101.8

163

Pepperdine

100.0

212

Santa Clara

97.2

215

Pacific

97.1

326

Portland

89.9

#

Western Athletic

PiRate

63

New Mexico St.

107.3

87

Grand Canyon

105.7

123

Utah Valley

103.4

192

Seattle

98.3

204

UT Rio Grande Valley

97.7

210

Cal St. Bakersfield

97.3

228

California Baptist

96.5

241

Missouri Kansas City

95.4

353

Chicago St.

79.3

 

Ratings of the Conferences

#

League

PiRate Avg.

1

Big Ten

111.7

2

Atlantic Coast

111.6

3

Big 12

111.3

4

Southeastern

109.9

5

Big East

108.4

6

Pac-12

104.7

7

American Athletic

104.7

8

West Coast

104.0

9

Mid-American

102.4

10

Atlantic 10

101.2

11

Mountain West

100.8

12

Ivy

100.6

13

Southern

100.5

14

Missouri Valley

99.7

15

Sun Belt

99.5

16

Conference USA

98.8

17

Western Athletic

97.9

18

Colonial Athletic

97.7

19

Horizon

97.1

20

Patriot

96.9

21

Summit

96.8

22

Big West

96.8

23

Ohio Valley

96.7

24

Atlantic Sun

96.4

25

Big South

96.1

26

America East

95.2

27

Big Sky

94.8

28

Metro Atlantic

94.5

29

Northeast

93.5

30

Southland

93.1

31

Southwestern Athletic

89.6

32

Mideastern Athletic

88.5

 

Note About The PiRate Basketball Ratings

So that we don’t have to answer this question multiple times, and there are always newcomers to this website who might wonder about this, let us re-state from past years that the basketball PiRate Ratings do not account for player injuries like Zion Williamson at Duke.  Our ratings do not account for issues with the coaching staffs, such as what is going on with an interim coach Murray Bartow at UCLA, or even the repercussions of the situation at Syracuse with Coach Jim Boeheim.

The basketball ratings use strength of schedules and Four Factors statistics with an algorithm that is slightly tweaked after every season.  How we calculate strengths of schedule is also slightly tweaked after every season.

If you follow us during football season, our football ratings do account for player injuries and mid-season coaching changes, since they are calculated differently.

 

Coming Later Today: Our Updated Bracketology 

Beginning Monday, March 4: Daily Bracketology Updates & Intensive Conference Tournament Reports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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April 4, 2013

Bracketnomics 2013: Final Four Saturday–April 6, 2013

2013 NCAA Tournament— Semifinal Round, April 6, 2013

Ttimes Eastern Daylight

 

Site: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Network: CBS

Time

Favorite

Underdog

Line

6:09 PM

Louisville (33-5)

Wichita St. (30-8)

10

8:49 PM

Michigan (30-7)

Syracuse (30-9)

2

Elite 8 Record: 2-2

Tournament Total: 38-22

Teams Remaining In Bracket: 1 of  4 (But Louisville was our pick to go all the way)

 

PiRate Ratings Criteria Formula Statistics

Criteria

Louisville

Michigan

Syracuse

Wichita St.

Scoring Margin

16.2

12.6

12.2

8.9

FG% Margin

6.4

6.2

7.2

4.8

Rebound Margin

3.7

3.1

3.7

8.0

Turnover Margin

6.0

2.8

3.2

0.4

Steals

10.9

6.2

9.1

7.5

R+T

13.08

7.70

9.36

9.98

SOS

59.41

55.94

59.29

53.79

RD W%

81.8

68.4

65.0

71.4

Qualifiers

6

3

5

5

PiRate #

85.27

57.09

67.73

53.74

Modified

124.97

65.59

106.43

42.94

 

PiRate Criteria Means for 2000-2012 National Champions

 

Criteria

Champ Avg.

Scoring Margin

15.5

FG% Margin

8.7

Rebound Margin

6.2

Turnover Margin

1.3

Steals

7.8

R+T

9.29

SOS

57.09

RD W%

73.8

Qualifiers

7

PiRate #

75.88

Modified

94.78

 

 

Louisville vs. Wichita State

Roster—Louisville

#

NAME

HT

WT

POS

CL

HOMETOWN (PREVIOUS SCHOOL)

2

Russ Smith

6-00

165

G

JR

Brooklyn, N.Y. (Archbishop Molloy/South Kent)

3

Peyton Siva

6-00

185

G

SR

Seattle, Wash. (Franklin)

5

Kevin Ware

6-02

175

G

SO

Bronx, N.Y. (Rockdale County (Ga.))

10

Gorgui Dieng

6-11

245

C

JR

Kebemer, Senegal (Covenant/Huntington Prep)

11

Luke Hancock

6-06

200

F

JR

Roanoke, Va. (George Mason)

12

Mangok Mathiang

6-10

200

C

FR

Melbourne, Australia (IMG Academy (Fla.))

14

Logan Baumann

6-00

165

G

FR

Hartford, Ky. (Ohio County)

15

Tim Henderson

6-02

195

G

JR

Louisville, Ky. (Christian Academy)

20

Wayne Blackshear

6-05

230

G/F

SO

Chicago, Ill. (Morgan Park)

21

Chane Behanan

6-06

250

F

SO

Cincinnati, Ohio (Bowling Green)

22

Jordan Bond

6-00

165

G

FR

Louisville, Ky. (duPont Manual)

24

Montrezl Harrell

6-08

235

F

FR

Tarboro, N.C. (Hargrave Military Academy)

25

Zach Price

6-10

250

C

SO

Cleveland, Ohio (Jeffersontown)

32

Michael Baffour

6-02

170

G

JR

Lexington, Ky. (Bryan Station)

33

Mike Marra

6-05

215

G

SR

Smithfield, R.I. (Northfield Mt. Hermon School)

44

Stephan Van Treese

6-09

245

F

SR

Indianapolis, Ind. (Lawrence North)

 

Coach: Rick Pitino 12th year at UL: 308-111

28 seasons overall: 662-239

(Hawaii, Boston U, Providence, Kentucky, Louisville)

 

 

Roster—Wichita St.

#

Name

Ht.

Wt.

Pos.

Yr. Hometown (Prev School)

0  

Chadrack Lufile

6-09

251

F

Jr. Burlington, Ontario, Canada (Coffeyville CC)

1  

Derail Green

6-07

199

F

Fr. Houston, Texas (Klein Forest HS)

2  

Malcolm Armstead

6-00

205

G

Sr. Florence, Ala. (Chipola JC) (Central Park Prep)

3  

Evan Wessel

6-05

201

G

So. Wichita, Kan. (Heights HS)

5  

Demetric Williams

6-02

178

G

Sr. Las Vegas, Nev. (Cheyenne HS)

11  

Cleanthony Early

6-08

215

F

Jr. Middletown, N.Y. (Sullivan JC)

15  

Nick Wiggins

6-06

187

G

Jr. Toronto, ON (Wabash Valley [Ill.] College)

20  

Kadeem Coleby

6-09

251

C

Sr. Nassau, Bahamas (Louisiana-Lafayette)

21  

Ehimen Orukpe

7-00

250

C

Sr. Lagos, Nigeria, (Three Rivers [Mo.])

22  

Carl Hall

6-08

238

F

Sr. Cochran, Ga. (NW Florida St.)

23  

Fred Van Vleet

5-11

190

G

Fr. Rockford, Ill. (Auburn HS)

31  

Ron Baker

6-03

218

G

Fr. Scott City, Kan. (Scott City HS)

32  

Tekele Cotton

6-02

202

G

So. Marietta, Ga. (Whitefield Academy)

33  

Zach Bush

6-06

175

F

Fr. Wichita, Kan. (Goddard Eisenhower HS)

50  

Jake White

6-08

232

F

So. Chaska, Minn. (Chaska HS)

 

Coach: Gregg Marshall 6th year at WSU: 139-69

15 seasons overall: 333-152

(Winthrop, Wichita St.)

 

Team Stats—Louisville

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

Russ Smith

38

35

1143

223

527

.423

57

172

.331

215

261

Gorgi Dieng

31

30

959

121

227

.533

0

0

.000

73

112

Peyton Siva

38

38

1177

132

320

.413

38

125

.304

74

86

Chane Behanan

37

35

961

143

283

.505

1

12

.083

69

131

Wayne Blackshear

37

32

754

102

242

.421

43

135

.319

43

62

Luke Hancock

38

8

836

86

211

.408

55

148

.372

55

71

Montrezl Harrell

38

3

626

92

163

.564

0

0

.000

32

63

Kevin Ware

37

1

616

59

132

.447

15

37

.405

34

51

Stephan Van Treese

35

1

402

26

40

.650

0

0

.000

12

17

Zach Price

16

7

123

8

15

.533

0

0

.000

4

8

Tim Henderson

25

0

88

6

20

.300

4

17

.235

0

0

Logan Baumann

4

0

11

0

4

.000

0

0

.000

2

2

Michael Baffour

6

0

12

0

3

.000

0

2

.000

2

4

Jordan Bond

5

0

17

0

3

.000

0

2

.000

0

0

 

   
Totals

38

38

7725

998

2190

.456

213

650

.328

615

868

Opponents

38

38

7725

778

1987

.392

207

658

.315

444

681

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

Russ Smith

.824

95

0

111

100

2

81

129

3.4

718

18.9

Gorgi Dieng

.652

77

3

60

56

78

43

296

9.5

315

10.2

Peyton Siva

.860

99

3

220

102

6

84

87

2.3

376

9.9

Chane Behanan

.527

63

0

40

60

16

52

233

6.3

356

9.6

Wayne Blackshear

.694

92

0

24

24

10

33

120

3.2

290

7.8

Luke Hancock

.775

78

1

50

39

3

36

100

2.6

282

7.4

Montrezl Harrell

.508

48

0

7

22

27

20

141

3.7

216

5.7

Kevin Ware

.667

58

1

31

42

4

39

66

1.8

167

4.5

Stephan Van Treese

.706

42

0

9

13

10

17

111

3.2

64

1.8

Zach Price

.500

23

0

0

5

5

1

22

1.4

20

1.3

Tim Henderson

.000

5

0

3

6

1

6

10

0.4

16

0.6

Logan Baumann

1.000

1

0

0

1

0

0

3

0.8

2

0.5

Michael Baffour

.500

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0.2

2

0.3

Jordan Bond

.000

1

0

1

0

0

1

3

0.6

0

0.0

Team

 

 

 

 

7

 

 

84

2.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals

.709

682

8

556

477

162

413

1406

37.0

2824

74.3

Opponents

.652

731

X

385

707

128

216

1264

33.3

2207

58.1

 

Team Stats—Wichita St.

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

Cleanthony Early

38

21

942

176

390

.451

45

144

.313

123

156

Carl Hall

31

25

886

141

262

.538

0

2

.000

106

158

Malcolm Armstead

38

38

1085

146

363

.402

61

172

.355

61

76

Ron Baker

17

14

436

42

104

.404

27

78

.346

35

43

Demetric Williams

38

26

966

97

252

.385

32

114

.281

62

81

Tekele Cotton

38

27

896

88

200

.440

23

64

.359

44

82

Evan Wessel

8

8

152

16

33

.485

11

24

.458

1

1

Nick Wiggins

35

1

460

58

133

.436

31

73

.425

27

37

Fred Van Vleet

38

0

607

59

149

.396

20

47

.426

26

36

Jake White

36

0

399

51

109

.468

3

27

.111

25

35

Ehimen Orukpe

35

30

538

39

83

.470

0

0

.000

17

42

Chadrack Lufile

29

0

233

19

34

.559

0

0

.000

8

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

38

38

7600

932

2112

.441

253

745

.340

535

767

Opponents

38

38

7600

775

1971

.393

229

714

.321

534

745

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

Cleanthony Early

.788

97

3

23

61

34

29

202

5.3

520

13.7

Carl Hall

.671

73

0

22

41

55

14

213

6.9

388

12.5

Malcolm Armstead

.803

86

0

150

86

2

74

146

3.8

414

10.9

Ron Baker

.814

35

0

32

22

5

14

50

2.9

146

8.6

Demetric Williams

.765

84

2

86

63

1

44

98

2.6

288

7.6

Tekele Cotton

.537

78

1

65

43

6

39

149

3.9

243

6.4

Evan Wessel

1.000

15

0

15

5

1

2

14

1.8

44

5.5

Nick Wiggins

.730

29

0

11

21

6

10

63

1.8

174

5.0

Fred Van Vleet

.722

42

1

86

43

2

35

71

1.9

164

4.3

Jake White

.714

48

0

10

28

0

7

107

3.0

130

3.6

Ehimen Orukpe

.405

71

0

8

46

56

11

155

4.4

95

2.7

Chadrack Lufile

.400

22

0

9

12

8

5

52

1.8

46

1.6

Team

 

 

 

 

10

 

 

141

3.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

.698

680

7

517

481

176

284

1461

38.4

2652

69.8

Opponents

.717

680

X

400

496

113

212

1157

30.4

2313

60.9

 

Schedule—Louisville

Opponent

Score

MANHATTAN  

79-51  

SAMFORD  

80-54  

MIAMI (OH)  

80-39  

vs NORTHERN IOWA  (Bahamas)

51-46  

vs MISSOURI  (Bahamas)

84-61  

vs DUKE  (Bahamas)

71-76  

ILLINOIS STATE  

69-66  

at COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON  

80-38  

MISSOURI-KANSAS CITY  

99-47  

at MEMPHIS  

87-78  

FIU  

79-55  

vs WESTERN KENTUCKY  (Nashville)

78-55  

KENTUCKY  

80-77  

PROVIDENCE  

80-62  

at SETON HALL  

73-58  

USF  

64-38  

at CONNECTICUT  

73-58  

SYRACUSE  

68-70  

at VILLANOVA  

64-73  

at GEORGETOWN  

51-53  

PITTSBURGH  

64-61  

MARQUETTE  

70-51  

at RUTGERS  

68-48  

at NOTRE DAME  

101-104  

ST. JOHN‘S  

72-58  

at USF  

59-41  

SETON HALL  

79-61  

at DEPAUL  

79-58  

at SYRACUSE  

58-53  

CINCINNATI  

67-51  

NOTRE DAME  

73-57  

vs VILLANOVA  (BE Tourn.)

74-55  

vs NOTRE DAME  (BE Tourn.)

69-57  

vs SYRACUSE  (BE Tourn.)

78-61  

vs NORTH CAROLINA A&T  (ncaa)

79-48  

vs COLORADO STATE  (ncaa)

82-56  

vs OREGON  (ncaa)

77-69  

vs DUKE  (ncaa)

85-63  

 

Schedule—Wichita St.

Opponent

Score

North Carolina Central

71-57

at Virginia Commonwealth

53-51

Western Carolina (Cancun Challenge)

79-63

Howard (Cancun Challenge)

69-50

(n) DePaul (Cancun)

75-62

(n) Iowa (Cancun)

75-63

Tulsa

86-60

at Air Force (MVC/MWC Challenge)

72-69

Northern Colorado

80-54

at Tennessee

60-69

Charleston Southern

65-53

Southern Mississippi

59-51

Northern Iowa

66-41

at Drake

75-63

at Bradley

69-63

Southern Illinois

82-76

at Evansville

67-71

Illinois St.

74-62

Crieghton

67-64

at Missouri St.

62-52

Bradley

73-39

Indiana St.

55-68

at Northern Iowa

52-57

at Southern Illinois

62-64

Missouri St.

79-50

Drake

71-56

at Illinois St.

68-67

at Indiana St.

66-62

Detroit (Bracketbuster)

94-79

Evansville

56-59

at Creighton

79-91

Missouri St. (mvc–St. Louis)

69-59

Illinois St. (mvc–St. Louis)

66-51

Crieghton (mvc–St. Louis)

65-68

(n) Pittsburgh ncaa

73-55

(n) Gonzaga ncaa

76-70

(n) La Salle ncaa

72-58

(n) Ohio St. ncaa

70-66

 

Vital Statistics

FG% Margin: Louisville by 1.6%

Rebound Margin: Wichita St. by 4.3

Turnover Margin: Louisville by 5.6

R+T Margin: Louisville by 3.1 extra possessions

SOS: Louisville by 5.6 points per game

 

PiRate Pick: Louisville 73  Wichita State 61

 

Other: Louisville winning the national championship one year after their rival Kentucky won it would not be something new.  It has happened before.  In 2010, Duke won the title a year after North Carolina.  In 1993, North Carolina won the title a year after Duke.  In 1983, North Carolina State won the title a year after North Carolina.  In 1961, Cincinnati won the title a year after Ohio State, and to make it sweeter, the Bearcats beat the Buckeyes in the championship game (and repeated that victory the following season.  Ohio State had refused to play Cincinnati in the regular season.

 

Cincinnati comes into play on Wichita State’s side as well.  The Bearcats were members of the Missouri Valley Conference when they won those back-to-back titles.  The MVC has four national championship teams from the past.  In addition to Cinti, Oklahoma A&M (now Oklahoma State) won back-to-back titles in 1945 and 1946, while in the Valley.  The Cowboys moves to the Big 8 for the 1958-59 season.

 

Michigan vs. Syracuse

Roster—Michigan

#

Name

Ht.

Wt.

Pos.

Year

Hometown (High School)

1

Glenn Robinson III

6-06

210

F

FR

St. John, Ind. (Lake Central)

2

Spike Albrecht

5-11

170

G

FR

Crown Pt., Ind. (Northfield Mt. Hermon Prep MA)

3

Trey Burke

6-01

190

G

SO

Columbus, Ohio (Northland)

4

Mitch McGary

6-10

250

F

FR

Chesterton, Ind. (Brewster Academy [N.H.])

5

Eso Akunne

6-02

225

G

SR

Ann Arbor, Mich. (Gabriel Richard)

10

Tim Hardaway Jr.

6-06

205

G

JR

Miami, Fla. (Palmetto Senior)

11

Nik Stauskas

6-06

190

G

FR

Mississauga, Ontario (St. Mark’s School MA)

13

Matt Vogrich

6-04

200

G

SR

Lake Forest, Ill. (Lake Forest)

15

Jon Horford

6-10

250

F

SO

Grand Ledge, Mich. (Grand Ledge)

20

Josh Bartelstein

6-03

210

G

SR

Highland Pk., Ill. (Phillips Exeter Acad. [N.H.])

22

Blake McLimans

6-10

240

F

SR

Hamburg, N.Y. (Worcester Academy [Mass.])

23

Caris LeVert

6-05

170

G

FR

Pickerington, Ohio (Central)

32

Corey Person

6-03

210

G

GS

Kalamazoo, Mich. (Central)

44

Max Bielfeldt

6-07

245

F

FR

Peoria, Ill. (Notre Dame)

52

Jordan Morgan

6-08

250

F

JR

Detroit, Mich. (University of Detroit Jesuit)

 

Coach: John Beilein 6th year at UM: 121-84

35 seasons overall: 672-402

(Erie CC, Nazareth, LeMoyne, Canisius, Richmond, West Virginia, Michigan)

 

Roster—Syracuse

#

Name

HT.

WT.

POS.

CL.

HOMETOWN / HIGHSCHOOL

0

Michael Gbinije

6-07

200

F

So.

Richmond, Va. / Benedictine College Prep

1

Mchl. Carter-Williams

6-06

185

G

So.

Hamilton, Mass. / St. Andrews School, R.I.

3

Jerami Grant

6-08

203

F

Fr.

Hyattsville, Md. / DeMatha Catholic

4

Nolan Hart

5-10

152

G

Jr.

Albany, N.Y. / Albany Academy

5

C.J. Fair

6-08

215

F

Jr.

Baltimore, Md. / City College HS/Brewster Acad.

10

Trevor Cooney

6-04

195

G

So.

Wilmington, Del. / Sanford School

12

Baye Moussa Keita

6-10

215

C

Jr.

Saint Louis, Senegal / Oak Hill Academy

13

Griffin Hoffmann

6-01

178

G

Sr.

New York, N.Y. / York Prep

14

Matt Lyde-Cajuste

6-05

215

F

Sr.

Mt. Vernon, N.Y. / Iona Prep

20

Brandon Triche

6-04

210

G

Sr.

Jamesville, N.Y. / Jamesville-DeWitt

21

Noel Jones

6-06

230

F

Jr.

Halifax, N.S. / Halifax Grammer School

23

Russ DeRemer

6-05

203

G

Jr.

Wrentham, Mass./Worcester Academy

25

Rakeem Christmas

6-09

242

F

So.

Philadelphia, Pa. / Academy of the New Church

32

DaJuan Coleman

6-09

288

F

Fr.

Jamesville, N.Y. / Jamesville-DeWitt

33

Albert Nassar

6-06

195

F

So.

Stuart, Fla. / South Fork

43

James Southerland

6-08

215

F

Sr.

Bayside, N.Y. / Cardozo/N. Dame Prep (Mass.)

 

Coach: Jim Boeheim 37th year at SU: 920-313

 

Team Stats: Michigan

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

Trey Burke

37

37

1314

251

541

.464

72

189

.381

122

151

Tim Hardaway, Jr.

36

36

1250

192

431

.445

70

181

.387

73

105

Nik Stauskas

37

31

1153

137

291

.471

79

176

.449

74

87

Glenn Robinson, III

37

37

1239

159

281

.566

23

69

.333

65

97

Mitch McGary

37

6

704

127

210

.605

0

0

.000

21

46

Jordan Morgan

34

27

560

70

120

.583

0

0

.000

21

39

Jon Horford

30

4

272

33

57

.579

0

0

.000

17

24

Caris LeVert

31

1

323

25

84

.298

11

39

.282

7

14

Spike Albrecht

37

0

285

20

48

.417

12

26

.462

9

9

Eso Akunne

18

0

51

8

26

.308

4

12

.333

1

2

Max Bielfeldt

20

0

106

9

20

.450

0

2

.000

5

12

Matt Vogrich

26

6

125

9

27

.333

5

19

.263

3

4

Corey Person

13

0

43

3

7

.429

2

3

.667

2

3

Blake McLimans

16

0

20

4

15

.267

2

11

.182

1

2

Josh Bartelstein

6

0

10

0

1

.000

0

0

.000

0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

37

37

7455

1047

2159

.485

280

727

.385

421

597

Opponents

37

37

7455

890

2105

.423

231

715

.323

318

469

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

Trey Burke

.808

67

0

253

81

18

59

115

3.1

696

18.8

Tim Hardaway, Jr.

.695

70

0

84

68

17

25

166

4.6

527

14.6

Nik Stauskas

.851

23

0

50

43

9

20

113

3.1

427

11.5

Glenn Robinson, III

.670

43

0

41

29

10

39

203

5.5

406

11.0

Mitch McGary

.457

84

0

18

43

25

41

228

6.2

275

7.4

Jordan Morgan

.538

50

1

13

32

3

15

153

4.5

161

4.7

Jon Horford

.708

44

0

9

14

16

8

68

2.3

83

2.8

Caris LeVert

.500

37

0

23

8

2

5

29

0.9

68

2.2

Spike Albrecht

1.000

23

0

28

12

1

12

29

0.8

61

1.6

Eso Akunne

.500

4

0

5

1

0

0

12

0.7

21

1.2

Max Bielfeldt

.417

8

0

3

3

1

3

31

1.6

23

1.2

Matt Vogrich

.750

8

0

5

3

0

2

23

0.9

26

1.0

Corey Person

.667

4

0

2

1

0

0

1

0.1

10

0.8

Blake McLimans

.500

4

0

1

1

1

1

13

0.8

11

0.7

Josh Bartelstein

.000

1

0

1

0

0

1

0

0.0

0

0.0

Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

118

3.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals

.705

470

1

536

339

103

231

1302

35.2

2795

75.5

Opponents

.678

564

8

463

451

117

193

1186

32.1

2329

62.9

 

Team Stats—Syracuse

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

C. J. Fair

39

39

1357

208

442

.471

29

61

.475

114

151

Brandon Triche

39

39

1312

181

436

.415

49

168

.292

122

164

Mchl. Carter-Williams

39

39

1373

154

388

.397

35

118

.297

129

186

Rakeem Christmas

39

39

810

85

161

.528

0

0

.000

30

51

DaJuan Coleman

24

20

305

42

96

.438

0

0

.000

30

65

James Southerland

33

10

976

159

349

.456

83

206

.403

45

57

Jerami Grant

39

9

555

52

114

.456

6

15

.400

41

73

Baye Moussa Keita

39

0

655

53

87

.609

0

0

.000

39

65

Trevor Cooney

38

0

431

46

143

.322

27

103

.262

11

15

Albert Nasser

5

0

3

1

1

1.000

1

1

1.000

0

0

Noel Jones

6

0

8

1

2

.500

0

0

.000

0

0

Matt Lyde-Cajuste

13

0

22

1

6

.167

0

3

.000

0

0

Nolan Hart

11

0

15

1

6

.167

0

3

.000

0

1

Griffin Hoffman

12

0

15

0

5

.000

0

4

.000

1

4

Russ DeRemer

11

0

13

0

2

.000

0

1

.000

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

39

39

7850

984

2238

.440

230

683

.337

562

832

Opponents

39

39

7850

773

2101

.368

238

843

.282

502

742

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

C. J. Fair

.755

60

0

28

63

41

44

272

7.0

559

14.3

Brandon Triche

.744

81

2

136

107

5

50

134

3.4

533

13.7

Mchl. Carter-Williams

.694

87

4

290

131

19

109

190

4.9

472

12.1

Rakeem Christmas

.588

99

3

8

34

72

18

178

4.6

200

5.1

DaJuan Coleman

.462

30

0

4

23

9

13

95

4.0

114

4.8

James Southerland

.789

76

2

36

38

29

49

173

5.2

446

13.5

Jerami Grant

.562

54

1

17

26

16

17

111

2.8

151

3.9

Baye Moussa Keita

.600

95

2

6

22

45

21

147

3.8

145

3.7

Trevor Cooney

.733

32

0

23

19

3

28

31

0.8

130

3.4

Albert Nasser

.000

1

0

0

0

0

1

1

0.2

3

0.6

Noel Jones

.000

2

0

0

0

1

0

6

1.0

2

0.3

Matt Lyde-Cajuste

.000

0

0

1

1

2

1

4

0.3

2

0.2

Nolan Hart

.000

0

0

1

6

0

1

3

0.3

2

0.2

Griffin Hoffman

.250

1

0

0

4

0

3

1

0.1

1

0.1

Russ DeRemer

.000

0

0

0

1

0

0

2

0.2

0

0.0

Team

 

 

 

 

10

 

 

154

3.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

.675

618

14

550

485

242

355

1502

38.5

2760

70.8

Opponents

.677

714

9

521

608

125

270

1357

34.8

2286

58.6

 

Schedule—Michigan

Opponent

Score

vs. Slippery Rock

100-62

vs. IUPUI TV (nit)

91-54

vs. Cleveland State (nit)

77-47

(n) Pittsburgh (nit)

67-62

(n) Kansas State (nit)

71-57

vs. No. 18 North Carolina State

79-72

at Bradley 

74-66

vs. Western Michigan 

73-41

vs. Arkansas 

80-67

vs. Binghamton 

67-39

(n) West Virginia (Brooklyn)

81-66

vs. Eastern Michigan 

93-54

vs. Central Michigan 

88-73

at Northwestern

94-66

vs. Iowa

95-67

vs. Nebraska

62-47

at No. 15 Ohio State

53-56

at No. 9 Minnesota

83-75

vs. Purdue

68-53

at Illinois

74-60

vs. Northwestern

68-46

at No. 3 Indiana

73-81

vs. No. 10 Ohio State

76-74 ot

at Wisconsin

62-65 ot

at Michigan State

52-75

vs. Penn State

79-71

vs. Illinois

71-58

at Penn State

78-84

vs. No. 9 Michigan State

58-57

at Purdue

80-75

vs. No. 2 Indiana

71-72

vs. Penn State (B10)

83-66

vs. No. 22 Wisconsin (B10)

59-68

vs. South Dakota State ncaa

71-56

vs. VCU ncaa

78-53

vs. No. 3 Kansas ncaa

87-85 ot

vs. No. 14 Florida ncaa

79-59

 

Schedule—Syracuse

Opponent

Score

at San Diego St. (Onboard Midway)

62-49

Wagner

88-57

Princeton

73-53

Colgate

87-51

at Arkansas (SEC/Big East)

91-82

Eastern Michigan

84-48

Long Beach St.

84-53

Monmouth

108-56

Canisius (Gotham Classic)

85-61

Detroit (Gotham Classic)

72-68

(n) Temple (MSG) (Gotham Classic)

79-83

Alcorn St. (Gotham Classic)

57-36

Central Connecticut

96-62

Rutgers

78-53

at South Florida

55-44

at Providence

72-66

Villanova

72-61

at Louisville

70-68

Cincinnati

57-55

at Villanova

71-75 ot

at Pittsburgh

55-65

Notre Dame

63-47

St. John’s

77-58

at Connecticut

58-66

at Seton Hall

76-65

Providence

84-59

Georgetown

46-57

at Marquette

71-74

Louisville

53-58

DePaul

78-57

at Georgetown

39-61

(n) Seton Hall (MSG) (BE)

75-63

(n) Pittsburgh (MSG) (BE)

62-59

(n) Georgetown (MSG) (BE)

58-55 ot

(n) Louisville (MSG (BE)

61-78

(n) Montana ncaa

81-34

(n) California ncaa

66-60

(n) Indiana ncaa

61-50

(n) Marquette ncaa

55-39

 

Vital Statistics

FG% Margin: Syracuse by 1.0%

Rebound Margin: Syracuse by 0.6

Turnover Margin: Syracuse by 0.4

R+T Margin: Syracuse by 1.7 extra possessions

SOS: Syracuse by 3.4 points per game

 

PiRate Pick: Syracuse 76  Michigan 70

 

Other: If Syracuse plays Louisville for the national title, it will be the fourth time conference opponents have faced each other in the championship game.  In 1988, Kansas beat Oklahoma in a big upset.  In 1985, Villanova beat Georgetown in an even bigger upset.  In 1976, Indiana beat Michigan to complete the last undefeated season of a national champion.

 

Michigan and Louisville or Michigan and Wichita State would continue a tradition of recent Midwest dominance in the Championship Game.  We consider Louisville and Lexington to be more Midwest than South.  There have been 11 Midwest schools in the 13 title games of the 2000’s.  There have been 9 teams from the South, 4 from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast area, and 2 from the West.

 

The Big Ten has placed five teams in the Championship Game this century, but only one member one—Michigan State in 2000.  The Big East is 3-0 in 21st Century National Championship Games.

March 14, 2011

2011 PiRate NCAA Basketball Tournament Preview

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:01 pm

1. Which teams meet the upper range criteria in every category?  That means they outscored their opponents by eight or more per game; their field goal percentage was greater than 7.5% better than their opponents; they outrebounded their opponents by five or more per game; they forced at least three more turnovers per game than they committed; and they stole the ball 7.5 or more times per game.

 

ANSWER—No teams this year meet all the perfect criteria described above.  Six teams come close to meeting the perfect criteria, but all fall short in at least one statistic.  This means there is no clear-cut favorite—only six teams that most closely resemble the great champions of the past.  Of the six, three come from power conferences.  These three are Kansas, Ohio State, and Syracuse.

 

Kansas fails to meet the turnover margin requirement, but the Jayhawks surpass all the other qualifications.  Ohio State comes up a tad bit short in field goal percentage margin, rebounding margin, and steals per game, but just misses in all three.  Syracuse misses in rebounding and turnover margin, but they Orangemen do not miss by much. 

 

2. Which teams can be immediately eliminated due to a negative R+T rating?  Which teams have an incredibly low R+T Rating (<2.0)?

 

ANSWER—Three teams can immediately be eliminated due to negative R+T Ratings.  It comes as no surprise that Alabama State and Texas-San Antonio, two teams facing off in the First Round in Dayton, have negative R+T ratings.  The third team is Michigan.  The Wolverines were outrebounded by 1.9 boards per game, and they only had a +1.4 turnover margin with just 4.7 steals per game.

 

Five other teams finished with R+T ratings less than 2.0.  This usually means one and done for these teams, unless they have outstanding FG% margins or cupcake opponents with worse criteria numbers.  Those five teams are: Penn State, Richmond, St. Peter’s, UCLA, and UCSB.

 

3. Which teams are capable of winning it all?

 

ANSWER—We separate the contenders from the pretenders by looking at the total PiRate Criteria score and then looking to see if the high criteria scoring teams receive merit on every individual statistic.

 

Last year, Duke was head and heels better than the other 64 teams.  The Blue Devils had the highest score overall, and they satisfactorily rated in every PiRate category.

 

No teams appear to be as strong this year as the Blue Devils were last year, but nine teams meet most of the minimum requirements to be considered Final Four contenders this year.

 

It should come as no surprise that the top two teams, Ohio State and Kansas, rank at the top in the Criteria.  Kansas actually has the highest score of the 68 teams, a score of 23.  The Jayhawks outscored their opposition by 17.2 points, shot 11.7% better from the field than their opponents, and outrebounded their opponents by 7.8 boards per game.  These stats are worthy of a powerhouse.  However, KU enjoyed just a 0.9 turnover margin and stole the ball 7.9 times per game, giving the Jayhawks an R+T Rating of 9.5.  We tend to look for teams with an R+T Rating in excess of 10, so KU is not a great favorite to go all the way. 

 

Ohio State’s total Criteria score is 21, good for second best.  However, the Buckeyes enjoy an R+T Rating of 13.2, which is a number we really like in a Final Four contender.  This number correlates to 13 extra scoring opportunities that their opposition does not receive.  OSU outscores their opponents by 17.3 points per game, shot 6.9% better from the field than they allows, outrebounded their opponents by 4.9 per game, had a turnover margin of +4.8, and stole the ball 7.2 times per game. 

 

San Diego State comes in third with 19 total criteria points.  BYU, Pittsburgh, and Texas come in next with 18 points; the Panthers have an R+T rating above 10.  The other three teams with PiRate Criteria scores showing themselves to be strong contenders for a Final Four berth are Syracuse, Purdue, and Duke

 

Florida, North Carolina, and UNLV are actually almost in a statistical tie with Duke, meaning those three are dark horse candidates for the Final Four.

 

Overall, this is the weakest field by far in the six tournaments where we have ranked the teams according to our criteria.  Looking back, this could be the weakest field since the tournament expanded to 64 teams. 

 

North Carolina State, Kansas, and Villanova won national titles in the past with less than stellar numbers.  We do not have all the statistics from those years, so we cannot really calculate criteria numbers for those three champions.  Could this be a season in which one team gets hot for six games and comes from out of the pack to win it all?  It could happen, but we are sticking with this mechanical system and going with its results.  Kansas, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, and Texas appear to be the best PiRate Criteria matches to past Final Four teams, and they are the quartet we officially pick to make it to Houston.  Syracuse becomes the wildcard team that could sneak into the mix.

 

Here is a look at the First Four Round One games and the 32 second round games.  The number in (parentheses) represents the PiRate Bracketnomics criteria number.

 

First Four Round

 

#16 Texas-San Antonio 19-13 (Elim) vs. #16 Alabama State 17-17 (Elim)

At first, we thought this was highly ironic, but upon further review, we consider it sort of a compliment.  These two teams both must be eliminated based on negative R+T ratings.  Of course, one of them must win this game so that they can advance to a 25-point or more loss in the next round.

 

Most of you filling out your brackets do not have to worry about these games in Dayton.  You get to turn in your choices after these games have been played.

 

UTSA has better criteria numbers after you factor out both teams’ R+T numbers. 

 

Prediction: Texas-San Antonio 64  Alabama State 55

 

 

#12 U A B 22-8 (2) vs. #12 Clemson 21-11 (1)

If you have been following the “experts” since the pairings were announced Sunday evening, then you know that these two teams do not belong in the tournament in their opinion.  It is not our mission statement to declare which teams should and should not have been included in the Big Dance, but we will tell you that Harvard and Saint Mary’s enjoyed Criteria scores several points better than these two teams, while Colorado and Virginia Tech had equal numbers to these two.

 

This game should be as close as the criteria scores show.  UAB has a one-point advantage in the criteria, but the Blazers just do not excel in any stage of the game.  Clemson’s strong point is forcing turnovers by way of steals, and that leads to a lot of cheap baskets.  Cheap baskets pay off big time in the NCAA Tournament, so we will take the Tigers in this one.

 

Prediction: Clemson 74  UAB 67

 

#11 Southern Cal 19-14 (-1) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth 23-11 (-1)

The winner of this game is going home two days later.  Neither team merits inclusion in the Big Dance this year. 

 

Southern Cal has no apparent weakness according to the PiRate Criteria.  In fact, they have a great resume—for an NIT team.

 

The Trojans outscore their opponents by four points per game, and they outshoot them by 3.3%.  They have a small rebounding margin of 1.2, and they have an even smaller turnover margin of 0.6.  They average six steals per game and have a R+T rating of 2.1.  On top of these modest numbers, their schedule was average.

 

VCU is much in the same boat as USC with two exceptions.  They have a negative turnover margin, but they also average 8.5 steals per game.

 

The only other difference in these teams is their records away from home.  USC won only 41% of their games, while VCU won 60%.

 

This one is quite tough to pick, but we will go with the Trojans due to their superior inside talent.  We expect USC to win the rebounding edge by at least five.

 

Prediction: Southern Cal  65  V C U  60

 

#16 UNC-Asheville 19-13 (-5) vs. #16 Arkansas-Little Rock 19-16 (-13)

Obviously, we have two teams that would not even merit NIT bids had they lost in the championship games of their conference tournaments.  UALR has one of the lowest Criteria Scores in the seven years we have been calculating this data.

 

UNC-Asheville actually has a couple of positive Criteria stats.  Their R+T is 5.5, which had it come against a more difficult schedule, would have made them worthy of becoming a possible team to watch in the Round of 64.

 

We will go with UNCA here, as schedule strength is about the same for both teams.

 

Prediction: UNC-Asheville 69  Arkansas-Little Rock 59

 

 

Second-Round Games

 

East Regional

 

#1 Ohio State 32-2 (21) vs. #16 UTSA (Elim)/Alabama State (Elim)

This game will be over quickly.  There will be no scare, not even for two TV timeouts.  The second highest Criteria score versus one of the teams with an R+T Rating of “Eliminate.”

 

The Buckeyes outscored their opponents by more than 17 points per game.  Their strength of schedule was 13 points better than UTSA and 16 points better than Alabama State. 

 

We will go under the theory that UTSA will be the opponent in this game.  Using our Criteria Rating, Ohio State figures to be 30-40 points better than UTSA.  Coach Thad Matta will definitely empty his bench early in this game, so the Buckeyes may “only win” by 25-30. 

 

Prediction: Ohio State 78  Texas-San Antonio 50

 

#8 George Mason 26-6 (8) vs. #9 Villanova 21-11 (5)

George Mason is the higher seed in this game, so if they win, it cannot really be considered an upset.

 

Villanova was on course to be a four-seed when the Wildcats were 16-5 and contending for the Big East Conference regular season title.  The Wildcats could not compete down low against the more physical teams in their league.

 

George Mason has a higher PiRate Criteria Score, but it is not an insurmountable advantage.  The key stat for this game is the R+T Rating.  For GMU, it is 6.8.  For VU, it is 4.9.  Considering that Villanova played a harder schedule, these numbers basically cancel each other out, thus making this a tossup game.

 

There are two variables to consider here.  George Mason performed much better on the road, and Villanova is banged up a bit.

 

Prediction: George Mason 66  Villanova 62

 

#5 West Virginia 20-11 (6) vs. #12 UAB (2)/Clemson (1)

We believe the Mountaineers will be facing Clemson in this game, but the prediction will hold up if they play UAB. 

 

West Virginia is not as good this season as last season, and the Mountaineers will not advance to the Final Four, or even the Elite Eight.  They are liable to be out by the end of the weekend.  However, they are strong enough to get into the Round of 32. 

 

The Mountaineers best attribute is that they put up decent numbers against one of the toughest schedules in the country.  Of the NCAA Tournament teams, only Georgetown played a tougher schedule.  They will have to limit turnovers, or else this game will be close and go down to the wire.  We believe Coach Bob Huggins will be able to keep the pace at a level he likes and not allow Clemson (or UAB) to force the Mountaineers into enough mistakes to turn the tide.

 

Prediction: West Virginia 69  Clemson 62 (Or UAB 58)

 

#4 Kentucky 25-8 (14) vs. #13 Princeton 25-6 (-2)

Princeton has pulled off the big upset in the past, and they came within a missed jumper at the buzzer of becoming the only #16 seed to beat a #1 seed.  However, that was two decades ago.  The Tigers have not been to the NCAA Tournament in seven years, and that big win over UCLA was 15 years ago. 

 

Kentucky is not the type of team that will allow Princeton’s style of play to affect their style of play.  The Wildcats should actually play better than their norm with fewer mistakes. 

 

We believe that Princeton will actually crumble under relentless man-to-man pressure and turn the ball over enough times in the opening minutes of the game to allow the Wildcats to open a quick double-digit lead.  This group of Cats tends to fiddle around a little once they get a quick double-digit lead and then play uninspired ball until the opponent makes a run.  Then, they go on the attack at the right time and put the game away.

 

Adolph Rupp had a team just like this in 1958.  They were called “The Fiddlin’ Five.”  They were also called National Champions.  We won’t go so far as to put UK into this category, but we will advance the Wildcats into the next round and then into the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 72  Princeton 59

 

#6 Xavier 24-7 (8) vs. #11 Marquette 20-14 (3)

If you are looking for a tough, hard-fought game with two Midwestern teams, then tune into this game Friday evening.

 

If the Musketeers were a little more competent at forcing turnovers, they could be a dark horse candidate to advance to the Elite Eight.  XU shoots the ball well and plays well on defense when it comes to preventing a lot of easy shots.  They do well on the boards, and against a team that cannot exploit their ball-handling and ball-hawking deficiencies, they will hold their own inside.  The only other possible problem for the Musketeers is a lack of depth, but in the NCAA Tournaments, TV timeouts are longer.  It is hard to wear a team down with such long breaks every four or so minutes.

 

Marquette does not have enough depth to take advantage of Xavier’s lack of depth, so this factor will become a non-factor.  The Golden Eagles got to this tournament due to their ability to put the ball into the basket.  Marquette needs to shoot better than 46% to win, while Xavier is adept at holding teams under 45% as a rule.

 

Prediction: Xavier 71  Marquette 65

 

#3 Syracuse 26-7 (17) vs. #14 Indiana State 20-13 (-4)

Syracuse has been getting very little national exposure since their 18-0 start ended with an 8-7 finish.  The Orangemen are a team to watch in this tournament.  If not for a pedestrian 71% winning percentage away from the Carrier Dome, we would have them as one of the top four teams in this tournament.

 

Coach Jim Boeheim’s team outscores their opposition by 10.3 points per game; they outshoot them by 7.6%, and they outrebound them by 3.6 boards per game.  Their turnover margin is +1.9, and they averaged almost nine steals per game.  Their R+T Rating is 7.6, and their Strength of Schedule is somewhere between above-average and very good.  This is the Criteria Score of a team that will advance to the Sweet 16 and compete for an Elite Eight and Final Four berth.

 

Indiana State needs the return of Larry Bird to win this game.  They are too perimeter-oriented.  The Sycamores do not have the beef down low to contend in the paint, and even though Syracuse plays a 2-3 zone, teams rarely beat the Orangemen by firing up 25 long-range bombs.

 

This one smells like a blowout.

 

Prediction: Syracuse 81  Indiana State 62

 

#7 Washington 23-10 (13) vs. #10 Georgia 21-11 (2)

Washington is one of those teams that can play with anybody in this tournament—when they are playing up to their potential.  The Huskies could also exit in the first round if they play like they did the weekend they went to Oregon and Oregon State.

 

Georgia is much more consistent, but their best effort will not defeat the Huskies’ best effort.

 

Washington lacked the seasoned experience this season, and it showed when they ventured away from Seattle.  The Huskies lost to weaker opponents because they lacked the composure to win on foreign courts.  That changed when they arrived in Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament.  Isaiah Thomas took over command of the team and led them to the tournament title.  This makes UW a scary and dangerous team capable of returning to the Sweet 16.

 

Georgia must really dominate the glass in this game, because we believe they will turn the ball over too many times against UW’s pressure man-to-man defense.  It is our opinion that the Bulldogs will play a little timidly at the start of this game and find themselves in a hole.

 

The Bulldogs had trouble against Alabama’s defense, and Washington is similar but with a much better offense.

 

Prediction: Washington 78  Georgia 70

 

#2 North Carolina 26-7 (15) vs. #15 Long Island 27-5 (-1)

 

Long Island is just the type of team that can forget that their opponent is a dynasty program that chews up and spits out little programs like this.

 

Teams from Brooklyn don’t intimidate easily, especially when they are led by a trio of Texans.  So, LIU will not be intimidated, but will they be talented enough to make a game of this contest?

 

That’s the rub.  They lack the defensive ability to slow down the Tar Heels, while Coach Roy Williams’ team will be able to hold the Blackbirds under their scoring average.  The big problem for LIU will be holding onto the ball, and we could see North Carolina forcing 20 turnovers in this game.  When the Tar Heels force more turnovers than they commit, they are almost unbeatable.  This game could be interesting for a short time, but it will eventually get out of hand.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 88  Long Island 70

 

West Regional

 

#1 Duke 30-4 (15) vs. #16 Hampton 24-8 (-8)

Duke has nothing to worry about here.  This will be like one of their November/December home games where they quickly put the cupcake away with a barrage of power and speed.  You know the type: a 37-point win over Princeton; a 34-point win over Miami of Ohio; a 52-point win over Colgate.

 

Hampton got to the Dance using an aggressive defense and three-point shooting barrage on offense.  Duke will not be affected by the defensive pressure, and they will cut off the open shots from the outside.  It will be a mercy killing, and it will be quick.  Look for the Blue Devils to be up by more than 15 points before the halfway point of the first half.  By the time Coach K empties the bench, the Blue Devils should be up by 25-30 points.

 

Prediction: Duke 81  Hampton 61

 

#8 Michigan 20-13 (Elim) vs. #9 Tennessee 19-14 (10)

Michigan is the highest-rated team that fails to meet our R+T Rating requirement, so the Wolverines are automatically tabbed as a first-round loser.

 

Coach Jim Beilein has been in a similar position before.  He guided a West Virginia team with not-so-flashy Criteria numbers to the Elite Eight, where they forced Louisville to come from 20 points down to rally for the victory.  That WVU team had one of the worst negative rebounding numbers of any team in Elite Eight history, but that team made few mistakes and had a nice turnover margin.

 

This Michigan team was only outrebounded by two a game, but they do not create enough extra possessions with their miniscule turnover margin of 1.4 and their average of just 4.7 steals per game.

 

Tennessee has been up and down, and the Volunteers are not going to make a repeat run to the Elite Eight this year.  However, Coach Bruce Pearl’s troops will control the boards in this game and maybe force more turnovers than they commit.  We figure that Tennessee will have 10 more opportunities to score in this game, and that is too many for the Wolverines to make up with their three-point shooting.

 

Prediction: Tennessee 74  Michigan 69

 

#5 Arizona 27-7 (3) vs. #12 Memphis 25-9 (-1)

Memphis was not going to earn an at-large bid this season had they failed to win the Conference USA Tournament.  They received an ideal first round opponent, and the Tigers actually have a fighting chance to pull off yet another classic #12-seed over #5-seed upset.

 

Arizona needs to pound the ball inside and rely on numerous offensive rebounds to win this game.  Other teams might be able to exploit Memphis’s poor ball-handling skills, but the Wildcats do not have the defensive acumen to take advantage here.

 

Memphis will try to make this an up-tempo game where they can neutralize Arizona’s height advantage inside.  It has a chance of working, but Arizona probably has too much power inside and just enough quickness to stop the Tigers’ transition game.

 

Prediction: Arizona 76  Memphis 69

 

#4 Texas 27-7 (18) vs. #13 Oakland 25-9 (3)

This has become a popular upset pick in the media.  Oakland has generated a lot of positive press, and many “experts” are calling for the upset in this game.  We are not one of them.  Not only do we believe the Longhorns will take care of Oakland with relative ease in this game, we believe Texas is a force to be reckoned with in the next two or three rounds. 

 

Let’s look at Texas’ Criteria Rating.  At 18, the ‘Horns rate as our sixth best team in the tournament.  They have a 13.5 point scoring margin, a 7.1% field goal margin, a 6.6 rebounding margin, and a 1.2 turnover margin.  Their only Achilles Heel is a low amount of steals resulting in a R+T Rating of 8.3.  Had that number been above 10, we would be selecting Coach Rick Barnes’ team for the Final Four.

 

Oakland won this year with strong rebounding and an excellent ability to force their opponents into bad shots.  Center Keith Benson is a future NBA player, but he is not enough to propel the Golden Grizzlies into the next round.

 

Prediction: Texas 77  Oakland 65

 

#6 Cincinnati 25-8 (9) vs. #11 Missouri 23-9 (10)

On paper, this looks like the best game of this round between a team with contrasting styles.

 

Cincinnati is one of the top defensive teams in the tournament.  The Bearcats are tough inside, and they have quality depth to continue playing hard in the paint. 

 

Missouri uses the “40 minutes of Hell” approach that Coach Mike Anderson learned under his mentor Nolan Richardson.  The Tigers press full court and run the fast break as often as they get the chance.  They are perimeter-oriented and can score a lot of points in a hurry.

 

When we try to decide tossup games, we look to the all-important defense and rebounding stats, since that is what wins close games in the Big Dance. 

 

Missouri is vulnerable in both of these crucial areas.  They have given up a lot of cheap baskets this year when teams solved their press.  The Tigers were outrebounded by 1.7 boards per game.

 

Cincinnati owns a +2.7 rebounding margin, and the Bearcats held onto the ball quite competently.  We believe Coach Mick Cronin’s crew will advance.

 

Prediction: Cincinnati 68  Missouri 65

 

#3 Connecticut 26-9 (9) vs. #14 Bucknell 25-8 (-4)

Ask Kansas Coach Bill Self if it is wise to underestimate Bucknell.  The Bison know how to hold onto the ball and work for intelligent shots.  Give them an opening, and they can bury you with a high field goal percentage.

 

Connecticut did the unthinkable by winning five games in five days.  Their defense does not get the merit it deserves, because Kemba Walker gets more attention for his offensive antics.  The Huskies actually held teams under 40% from the field.

 

Coach Jim Calhoun knows how to prepare a team for tournament action.  He will have UConn ready for this game, and the Huskies will not overlook the Bison.

 

Prediction: Connecticut 73  Bucknell 58

 

#7 Temple 25-7 (5) vs. #10 Penn State 19-14 (-1)

Temple’s score must be tempered by the fact that they are a wounded team coming into this tournament.  Two starters suffered injuries late in the season, and one is out for the remainder of the year, while the other may or may not be ready to play.  We must throw out Temple’s score of “5” in the PiRate Criteria, because 40% of the key players that produced that number will either not play or be greatly less effective.

 

Penn State is a lot like Southern Cal in this tournament.  The Nittany Lions have the look of a strong NIT team.  Aside from a so-so record against a strong schedule, they really have little to offer outside of one star player. 

 

We believe this Keystone State rivalry game will be close, and it could come down to the last shot.  Because the Owls are limping, we will go with the Big Ten representative.

 

Prediction: Penn State 59  Temple 56

 

#2 San Diego State 32-2 (19) vs. #15 Northern Colorado 21-10 (-6)

Most of you reading this probably cannot remember Texas Western University, but you may have scene the movie where the Miners were too quick for Kentucky and pulled off the big upset to win the 1966 National Championship.  Maybe some of you remember the Long Beach State 49ers ascension into the top 10 under Jerry Tarkanian and then Lute Olson.  Still more can remember when Tark the Shark moved to UNLV and turned the Runnin’ Rebels into a national power.

 

San Diego State is the next Western team to fit this bill.  The Aztecs are legitimate contenders to advance deep into this tournament.  They have few exploitable weaknesses, and they are the best team West of the Rockies.  Coach Steve Fisher knows how to get teams ready for tournament play, as he has three Final Fours on his resume and one National Championship.

 

SDSU’s PiRate Criteria numbers are flashy.  Their scoring margin is 13.3 points per game.  Their FG% margin is 7.1%.  They outrebound their opposition by almost seven per game, and they force 1.6 more turnovers than they commit.  Their one weak spot is a pedestrian 6.2 steals average.  If they run up against a more powerful team inside, they could have trouble getting enough extra scoring opportunities.

 

Northern Colorado will not be one of those teams that can cause trouble for the Aztecs.  The Bears are a good rebounding team, but their rebounding prowess came against a schedule that rates 10 points weaker than San Diego State’s schedule.

 

Prediction: San Diego State 73  Northern Colorado 51

 

Southwest Regional

#1 Kansas 32-2 (23) vs. #16 Boston U 21-13 (-11)

Kansas is a team on a mission.  The Jayhawks will not allow a repeat of what happened last year, and that extra incentive should be enough to send KU to Houston.

 

Kansas has the top PiRate Criteria Score this year.  They meet the basic requirements that most prior National Champions have met—scoring margin: 17.2; FG% margin: 11.7; Rebounding margin: 7.8; Turnover Margin: 0.9; Steals per game: 7.9; R+T Ratings: 9.5.

 

How do you beat this year’s KU team?  Kansas State and Texas pulled it off by matching up well inside and going head-to-head with them in the paint.

 

Boston U has the second lowest PiRate Criteria score of the 65 teams that have positive R+T Ratings.  The Terriers are way overmatched in this game, and they will have to be glad they just made it here.

 

Prediction: Kansas 90  Boston U 62

 

#8 U N L V 24-8 (15) vs. #9 Illinois 19-13 (1)

If our ratings are worth their salt, then this game should not be all that close.  UNLV may be just the third best team in the Mountain West, but the MWC was better overall this year than the Pac-10.  Third best in the MWC makes the Runnin’ Rebels one of the dozen or so teams capable of making a two weekend run.

 

Coach Lon Kruger has taken two different teams to the Elite Eight (Kansas State and Florida).  His teams play intelligently without being flashy.

 

UNLV went 24-3 against teams not named Brigham Young or San Diego State.  They are not particularly strong on the boards, and this will eventually be their downfall.  The Rebels shoot the ball brilliantly, and they alter enough opponent shots to force a lower field goal percentage.  They also take care of the ball and do not make a lot of floor mistakes.

 

Illinois is an inconsistent, underachieving team.  This can be dangerous for the prognosticator, because it is difficult if not impossible to predict which schizophrenic state will appear for each game.

 

The Illini are not particularly strong on the glass or at taking care of the ball, and that is a recipe for disaster when the opponent is as good as UNLV.  Even if Illinois comes out playing their best basketball, it may not be enough to beat UNLV playing their typical game.

 

Prediction: U N L V  72  Illinois 64

 

#5 Vanderbilt 23-10 (5) vs. #12 Richmond 26-7 (2)

Here is another game getting a lot of attention due to its upset potential.  Historically, the #12 seed produces the a lot of great upsets.

 

This game could go either way.  Both teams have exploitable weaknesses, and it just so happens that both teams’ have the assets capable of exploiting the other’s weaknesses.

 

Let’s start with Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are not particularly strong on the defensive perimeter.  Worthy opponents have been able to beat them off the drive and get a lot of open inside shots.  This weak perimeter defense has also led to frontcourt players having to help, thus leaving open holes near the basket.

 

Richmond’s offense is a modified version of the Princeton Offense.  The Spiders have the talent to get open shots inside and in the five to ten-foot range.

 

Richmond cannot rebound against more physical teams.  The Spiders make up for their rebounding liabilities by seldom throwing the ball away.

 

Vanderbilt has an excellent physical presence inside with three beefy players that can rebound the ball on offense and defense.

 

So, which team gets the edge in our PiRate Ratings?  We always look to defense in rebounding in tossup games.  Vanderbilt holds the rebounding edge, while Richmond holds the defensive edge.  It is basically a wash, so we have to look elsewhere.  While Richmond has been much better away from home, Vanderbilt’s schedule is seven points more difficult.  We’ll go with the power conference team, but not by much

 

Prediction: Vanderbilt 70  Richmond 67

 

#4 Louisville 25-9 (12) vs. #13 Morehead State 24-9 (3)

This should be an interesting game, but in the end the big brothers are going to defeat their little brothers in this battle of two Bluegrass State teams.

 

40 years ago this week, another little brother upset a big brother on their way to a surprise appearance in the Final Four (later vacated).  In 1971, Western Kentucky did not just upset Kentucky, the Hilltoppers ran the Wildcats off the floor.  Can there be a repeat two score later?  No!

 

Coach Rick Pitino’s Cardinals are vulnerable on the boards, and Morehead State has the nation’s best rebounder in the nation in Kenneth Faried.  However, the Eagles do not have enough talent or depth to keep up with Louisville.  They may emerge with a slight rebounding edge in this game, but it will not be enough to make up for all the open shots the Cardinals will get.

 

Louisville is going to run into trouble when they meet up with a team that can rebound and play credible defense.  That would be Kansas in the Sweet 16.  Until then, they have a relatively easy route to the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Louisville 78  Morehead State 62

 

#6 Georgetown 21-10 (8) vs. #11 Southern Cal (-1)/Va. Commonwealth (-1)

Last year, we discussed Georgetown’s vulnerabilities and the probability that they would fail to make it past the first weekend.  We expected the Hoyas to fall as a favorite in their second game, but they were a one and done team.

 

This year’s team is not much better than last year’s Hoya team, but they received a much more favorable draw.

 

Coach John Thompson III’s Hoyas once again have a rather low R+T Rating thanks to a turnover margin of -1.9 and a low amount of steals per game.  They will exit from the tournament in the next round unless there is a monumental upset in their pairing.

 

Neither USC nor VCU has the talent to take advantage of Georgetown’s deficiencies.  The three teams combined have a R+T rating below Purdue’s.

 

One additional note: The Hoyas will be a tad bit better than their Criteria Score in the tournament.  Chris Wright suffered a hand fracture in the middle of the schedule, and he is expected to be near 100% for the tournament.  You have to add maybe one point to their Criteria Score, but that is not enough to put them over the top in their second game.

 

Prediction: Georgetown 69  Southern Cal 61 (or VCU 60)

 

#3 Purdue 25-7 (16) vs. #14 St. Peter’s 20-13 (-7)

If only… Purdue fans will never know just how good their team might have been with Robbie Hummel joining JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore playing together.  This would have been the best Boilermaker team since Rick Mount led Purdue to the Championship Game against UCLA in 1969.

 

The Boilermakers no longer have that one glaring weakness that Gene Keady’s teams had and thus prevented Purdue from getting past the second round.  This team does well on the boards like most of those past Purdue teams, but they are particularly strong when it comes to forcing turnovers and taking advantage by converting steals into points.  It is the way many teams go on runs that put opponents out of commission.

 

St. Peter’s just barely avoided being immediately eliminated with a negative R+T Rating.  They squeaked by at 0.1.  It might as well be a negative number, as the Peacocks were outrebounded by 0.4 per game and had a turnover margin of -0.9 against a schedule that was four points below average and seven points weaker than the schedule Purdue faced.

 

Prediction: Purdue 73  St. Peter’s 56

 

#7 Texas A&M 24-8 (8) vs. #10 Florida State 21-10 (2)

The Big 12’s third best team has enough talent to challenge for a Sweet 16 berth.  We’ll leave the next round for another time and talk about this game.

 

The Aggies have no glaring weakness, and they have a few strengths, namely rebounding and defense (which wins games in the NCAA Tournament).  They are much like Kansas Lite.  A&M was not a team of surprises during the regular season.  They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and failed to upset the teams better than they were.  We expect the trend to continue.  They are better than the Seminoles.

 

Florida State does not take good care of the ball, and that costs them in confrontations against good opponents.  The Seminoles do not play particularly well away from Tallahassee, and they should be making a quick exit from the Dance.

 

Prediction: Texas A&M 73  Florida State 65

 

#2 Notre Dame 26-6 (11) vs. #15 Akron 23-12 (-9)

This is the best Irish team since Digger Phelps led Notre Dame in the late 1980’s.  Throw in the fact that this team has a chip on its shoulders following a first round exit last year, and the Irish have to be considered the Sweet 16 favorite in their four-team pairing this weekend.

 

The Irish finished the regular season with a scoring margin of 10.4 points per game.  Down the stretch, they went 7-2 against teams in this tournament.  The Selection Committee placed Notre Dame in a bracket that should provide a very memorable Sweet 16 contest against one of their most bitter arch-rivals.

 

Akron has a big seven-foot center, but the Zips do not rebound the ball all that well.  Zeke Marshall, the aforementioned big man, concentrates his efforts on blocking shots, and he frequently is not in position to rebound the ball.  So, the blocked shot frequently turns into a made basket off an offensive rebound.  The Zips did not fare well on the road this year, and with a considerably weaker schedule than average, this does not bode well.

 

Prediction:  Notre Dame 81  Akron 57

 

Southeast Regional

#1 Pittsburgh 27-5 (18) vs. #16 UNC-Asheville (-5)/U A L R (-13)

One of us here at the PiRate Ratings might be dating himself, but he sees a lot of the 1962 Cincinnati Bearcats in this year’s Pitt team.  The Panthers have a dominating inside power game that will pulverize any finesse team that cannot hit 10 three-pointers.  Neither UNCA nor UALR has a remote chance to make this game a close contest.

 

Pitt outscored their opposition by 13.1 points per game.  This stat looks even better when you factor in that they compiled this gaudy stat playing in a league that produced 11 NCAA Tournament teams.  The Panthers outshot their opponents by 7.6%, and they totally dominated the glass with a 10.4 rebounding advantage.  If you are thinking the way to beat them is to play a packed in zone, think again.  Ashton Gibbs can bury you from outside with his near 50% three-point accuracy, and Brad Wannamaker can still get the ball inside to one of the bruisers waiting to punish you with a thunder dunk.

 

Only a negative turnover margin prevents the Panthers from being there with Kansas as a co-favorite for winning all the marbles.

 

Pitt’s cupcake opponent will have to be happy with winning their First Four game, because they will be humiliated in this game.

 

Prediction: Pittsburgh 78  UNC-Asheville 54 (or UALR 48)

 

#8 Butler 23-9 (7) vs. #9 Old Dominion 27-6 (10)

This is the second best matchup in this round, and the winner will put a scare into Pittsburgh in the next round and even have a decent shot at the upset.

 

Butler is now the hunted rather than the hunter.  The Bulldogs will not sneak up on anybody this year.  More importantly, they are not as talented as they were last year.  The Bulldogs fared much better on the road last year than this season.  However, down the stretch, Butler started to look like a team proficient enough to get past the first weekend once again.

 

Old Dominion has the talent to advance past the first weekend as well.  The Monarchs are a miniature version of Pittsburgh, the team they would face in the next round should they win this game.

 

ODU is the nation’s number one rebounding team with a +12.2 margin.  The Monarchs’ schedule was not outstanding, but it was on par with several teams from the so-called power conferences, and they finished 6-4 against teams in this tournament.  This is a better ODU team than the one that upset Notre Dame in the first round last year, and this game should be one you do not want to miss.

 

 

Prediction: Old Dominion 72  Butler 70 in overtime

 

#5 Kansas State 22-10 (9) vs. #12 Utah State 30-3 (14)

This is the one game where a number 12 seed winning would not really be all that much of an upset.  Utah State should have been a top eight seed in this tournament.  If we were conspiracy buffs, we would say that the Selection Committee searched for a team that the Aggies do not match up with all that well and placed them in this spot to verify their actions.

 

Kansas State does not take care of the ball well enough to advance very deep into this tournament, but their first game opponent cannot take advantage of that weakness.

 

Utah State has dominated their opponents by forcing them to play a patient half-court game with very little scoring in transition.  They prefer to work the ball patiently for a good shot and then force opponents to take a low-percentage shot.  Thus, the Aggies outrebound their opponents, but they do so by forcing more bad shots than by out-leaping their opponents.

 

Kansas State has the talent to force Utah State to play at a quicker tempo and force them to defend one-on-one.  Jacob Pullen is a poor man’s (and smaller) Derrick Rose.  He can break down most opponents off the dribble, and he should be able to force USU to resort to some type of combination defense to keep him from going wild.

 

What scares us most about Utah State is that they had two opportunities to show they are deserving of their lofty ranking.  They lost to BYU and to Georgetown, and they never really threatened to pull of the upset in either game.

 

This is one game where we are going to go against our own chalk.  Kansas State’s schedule was seven points tougher, and the Wildcats can exploit the Aggies’ weaknesses.

 

Prediction: Kansas State 70  Utah State 63

 

#4 Wisconsin 23-8 (7) vs. #13 Belmont 30-4 (9)

This game has become the most-picked upset special around the nation.  Belmont is being compared with Butler of last year.  The Bruins are lofty of all this attention-gathering admiration, but Wisconsin is not the Washington Generals.

 

Belmont has the highest scoring margin in the nation at 18.4 points per game.  The Bruins outshot their opposition by 5.7% per game, and they took a lot of three-point attempts.  They outrebounded their opponents by 3.9, and they had an eye-popping 5.3 turnover margin.  They share the top steals per game average in this tournament with Missouri at 9.7, and their R+T Rating is the best in the tournament at 16.2 (three better than number two Ohio State).

 

Of course, these statistics were compiled against inferior competition.  Belmont’s schedule strength is nine points below the national average and a dozen below their first round opponent.  Against the opponents that made it to this tournament, they were 1-3.  They beat Alabama State by 13.  The three losses were on the road to in-state rivals Tennessee (twice) and Vanderbilt, but they led in the second half of those games.

 

The last time Belmont was in the Big Dance, the Bruins came within a missed last shot of sending Duke home.   

 

Wisconsin was not expected to be this good in 2011.  This was supposed to be a minor rebuilding season for the Badgers.  The Badgers usually run Coach Bo Ryan’s Swing Offense with great efficiency, rarely turning the ball over.  They outscored their opponents by 9.9 points per game, and they outshot they outrebounded them by 3.8 boards per game. 

 

The Badgers have been a hot and cold team this year.  When they have been hot, they have been nearly unbeatable, because Ryan’s teams always limit possessions.  When they have been cold, they have been easily beatable, because Ryan’s teams always limit possessions.  They finished the season as cold as ice, so the Badgers must be considered a slight underdog in this game.

 

Prediction: Belmont 74  Wisconsin 70

 

#6 St. John’s 21-11 (9) vs. #11 Gonzaga 24-9 (13)

Here is a game where we believe the seedings should be switched.  Gonzaga has been here enough times to be considered a regular in the NCAA Tournament, like Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, and Connecticut.  This makes a baker’s dozen consecutive appearances in the Big Dance for the Bulldogs. 

 

In past years, Gonzaga had a big scorer that could take over games.  Adam Morrison comes to mind.  This year, the Zags are more difficult to prepare for, because they are more team-oriented.  There is not a big star on the roster, but all five starters are capable of taking the team on his shoulders with a hot night.

 

In their nine-game winning streak to close the season, Gonzaga eliminated Saint Mary’s from the Dance party with two victories.  The Bulldogs scoring margin in those nine games was 76-58.  This is a good team playing its best ball of the year, and we expect Coach Mark Few to win yet another NCAA Tournament game.

 

St. John’s comes into the tournament minus one of its stars.  Starting forward D. J. Kennedy went down for the season with a knee injury in the Big East Tournament, and the Red Storm is now suspect in the paint.  Their Criteria Score of nine should be discounted by two to three points.  It is enough to take this contest from tossup status to near-comfortable status for Gonzaga.

 

Prediction: Gonzaga 74  St. John’s 66

 

#3 Brigham Young 30-4 (18) vs. #14 Wofford 21-12 (-1)

So, you didn’t get a chance to see Pete Maravich play at LSU in 1968, 1969, or 1970, eh?  We must admit that nobody will ever be the collegiate equal for Maravich, but Jimmer Fredette may be the closest thing to him.

 

Throw out the floppy socks and floppy Beatles haircut and throw out some of the most unbelievable passes in the history of the game (so unbelievable that Maravich’s teammates frequently could not see them coming), and Fredette is not that far behind Maravich.

 

The sports nation will be turning its eyes to this game just to see if Fredette can make a run at a single game scoring mark.  If we remember correctly, Notre Dame’s Austin Carr set the mark back in 1970 with 61 points against Ohio U in a regional qualifier game.

 

BYU may have been a strong Final Four contender had Brandon Davies not loved his girlfriend so much.  The Cougars averaged 8.7 fewer points per game once Davies was suspended. 

 

Wofford will not be able to take much advantage of Davies’ absence.  The Terriers fared well in all PiRate Criteria categories, but they did not meet even the minimum “numbers to look for” in any category, and their schedule strength was five points below the norm. 

 

Prediction: Brigham Young 75  Wofford 63

 

#7 U C L A 22-10 (-3) vs. #10 Michigan State 19-14 (1)

If only this were a few years ago.  Neither of these historically dominating teams is going to make waves in this year’s tournament, and the winner will be around for just one more game.

 

UCLA would be a national title contender if Kevin Love had stuck around for four years.  Imagine Love as a senior on this team.  Can you say Bill Walton-like numbers?  Alas, the Bruins must get by with a couple of well above-average forwards instead of the best three-man tandem in the nation.

 

The Bruins have the worst turnover margin of any team in this tournament.  At -3.4, UCLA would need to dominate on the boards, and while they usually win that battle, it is anything but dominating.

 

Michigan State’s one asset year in and year out under Coach Tom Izzo has been their rebounding acumen.  For most teams, a +4.3 edge on the boards would be considered outstanding, but in East Lansing, this is considered a down year. 

 

Neither team has done all that well away from their home court this season, and there really is only one stat where one team stands out ahead of the other.  MSU’s schedule was four points tougher than UCLA’s schedule.  That’s our spread for this game.  

 

Prediction: Michigan State 64  UCLA 60

 

#2 Florida 26-7 (15) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara 18-13 (-10)

The Gators looked like a potential Final Four team in the last month, at least when they were not playing Kentucky.  UCSB is not Kentucky. 

 

Florida tends to commit too many floor mistakes to win four games in this year’s tournament.  They have enough talent to get through the first weekend, but we do not see the Gators extending their stay after that.

 

UCSB upset Long Beach State to get here, and the Gauchos are one of the weakest teams in the tournament according to our Criteria Score.  With negative rebounding and turnover margins, they just barely escape automatic elimination with a R+T rating of 0.3. 

 

Prediction: Florida 76  U C S B  54

 

 

 

Our Bracket

 

You have seen the 32 teams that we believe will win the second round games.  Here is how we fill out the rest of our bracket.

 

Third Round Winners

Ohio State over George Mason

Kentucky over West Virginia

Syracuse over Xavier

North Carolina over Washington

Duke over Tennessee

Texas over Arizona

Connecticut over Cincinnati

San Diego State over Penn State

Kansas over UNLV

Louisville over Vanderbilt

Purdue over Georgetown

Notre Dame over Texas A&M

Pittsburgh over Old Dominion

Kansas State over Belmont

Gonzaga over Brigham Young

Florida over Michigan State

 

Sweet 16 Winners

Ohio State over Kentucky

Syracuse over North Carolina

Texas over Duke

San Diego State over Connecticut

Kansas over Louisville

Purdue over Notre Dame

Pittsburgh over Kansas State

Florida over Gonzaga

 

Elite 8 Winners

Ohio State over Syracuse

Texas over San Diego State

Kansas over Purdue

Pittsburgh over Florida

 

Semifinal Winners

Ohio State over Texas

Kansas over Pittsburgh

 

National Championship

Kansas over Ohio State

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