The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 18, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 16 NFL Previews: December 18-22, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 16

A Preview Of The Conference Championship Games?

 

What a coincidence!  The Steelers go to Nashville, and the Panthers go to the Meadowlands in what could very well be a preview of the AFC and NFC Championship games.  Personally, I don’t think we will see either of these games replayed in the same venues in four weeks.

 

There are several other key games this week.  Indianapolis can clinch the number five playoff spot in the AFC if they defeat Jacksonville.  Baltimore and Dallas hook up in an important Saturday night game.  The loser of this game might need help in week 17. 

 

Miami faces a possible trap game at Kansas City, where the temperature is going to be well below freezing. 

 

Philadelphia and Washington play an eliminator game, where the loser can hang it up for the season. 

 

Arizona has a tough date at New England, where the Patriots are almost in a must-win situation. 

 

Atlanta and Minnesota play in the Fox second game, and the winner will be in great shape, while the loser is in trouble (especially if Chicago wins Monday night). 

 

The Jets must travel to the West Coast for the fourth time this season.  They are 0-3 so far. 

 

Denver can secure the AFC West with a win over swooning Buffalo or a San Diego loss at Tampa Bay.  The Bucs need to win against the Chargers. 

 

On Monday night, the Bears may be playing for a chance to knot the NFC North, or they could already be eliminated depending on what happens in Minneapolis.

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

11

3

0

374

246

108.62

107.01

106.50

2

Dallas

9

5

0

332

288

102.95

103.96

105.36

2

Philadelphia

8

5

1

369

273

107.60

106.03

106.70

2

Washington

7

7

0

231

266

97.77

98.22

98.97

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

9

5

0

342

290

105.12

105.24

106.65

2

Chicago

8

6

0

331

302

103.12

101.77

101.95

2

Green Bay

5

9

0

371

339

104.35

101.02

97.85

2

Detroit

0

14

0

240

444

88.47

89.81

88.23

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

11

3

0

353

264

106.47

105.55

107.58

2

Tampa Bay

9

5

0

313

251

105.19

103.84

105.78

2

Atlanta

9

5

0

336

281

104.71

103.45

103.21

2

New Orleans

7

7

0

390

353

103.29

102.62

100.96

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

8

6

0

386

358

100.03

99.65

100.31

3

San Francisco

5

9

0

295

341

94.85

96.51

96.25

3

Seattle

3

11

0

260

355

91.65

93.14

92.53

3

St. Louis

2

12

0

189

417

83.33

87.70

84.98

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

9

5

0

385

319

101.06

100.30

102.45

2

New England

9

5

0

350

302

100.33

101.54

102.55

2

Miami

9

5

0

283

269

98.18

99.21

101.65

2

Buffalo

6

8

0

306

306

96.18

95.64

95.74

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

11

3

0

302

192

109.24

108.44

108.71

2

Baltimore

9

5

0

325

213

108.79

107.24

107.78

3

Cleveland

4

10

0

232

305

96.76

96.59

94.25

2

Cincinnati

2

11

1

174

358

91.41

92.93

91.84

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

12

2

0

344

197

109.87

107.77

108.10

2

Indianapolis

10

4

0

323

274

104.76

104.55

106.44

2

Houston

7

7

0

319

343

100.27

101.56

101.34

3

Jacksonville

5

9

0

271

309

98.34

97.85

96.61

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

8

6

0

326

366

95.50

97.62

99.00

2

San Diego

6

8

0

346

302

101.75

100.18

99.56

2

Oakland

3

11

0

205

348

89.46

90.76

89.22

2

Kansas City

2

12

0

254

386

90.65

92.31

90.97

2

 

If The Playoffs Started Today

 

NFC 1st Round

#6 Tampa Bay at #3 Minnesota

#5 Dallas at #4 Arizona

 

#1 New York Giants would host lower surviving seed

#2 Carolina would host higher surviving seed

 

Still Alive

Atlanta 9-5-0, Philadelphia 8-5-1, Chicago 8-6-0, Washington 7-7-0

 

AFC 1st Round

#6 Baltimore at #3 New York Jets

#5 Indianapolis at #4 Denver

 

#1 Tennessee would host lower surviving seed

#2 Pittsburgh would host higher surviving seed

 

Still Alive

Miami 9-5-0 leads New England 9-5-0

San Diego would beat out Denver if both finished 8-8-0

 

Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book.  When I believe it is okay to play different spreads of the same game, I have put those numbers in parentheses.  If you don’t see different choices, then I only recommend that single spread for that game.

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

NFL Previews-Week 16

 

Indianapolis (10-4-0) at Jacksonville (5-9-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Thursday

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature falling from the upper to mid 60’s

 

PiRate:                Indianapolis by 3                  

Mean:                  Indianapolis by 4

Bias:                    Indianapolis by 7

 

Vegas:               Indianapolis by 6, 6.5, 7

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 79  Jacksonville 21

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 27  Jacksonville 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 38  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 27 Indianapolis 17

 

Strategy:     Over 44, Indianapolis +4 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +7 in 13-point teaser, Indianapolis -250, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser

 

Indianapolis has something to play for in this game as well as some revenge for a nasty loss in September.  Jacksonville will finish in last place in the division after being picked to win it by many pundits.

 

The Colts have won seven games straight after losing at Tennessee to fall to 3-4.  It is my belief that they will win this game and win next week against Tennessee to finish in a tie for first in the division (Titans hold the tiebreaker edge).

 

By winning this game, Indianapolis will sew up the #5 seed in the AFC Playoffs, and that means playing at Denver (San Diego) rather than the AFC East Champion.  I think they will be ready to play, and it will lead to a touchdown or more victory.  Then, watch out for Peyton Manning in the playoffs.

 

 

Baltimore (9-5-0) at Dallas (9-5-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Saturday

TV:               NFL

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible, then clearing as a cold front moves through, moderate wins, temperature at kickoff in the low to mid 60’s but dropping rapidly to the low 40’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 4

Mean:                  Baltimore by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Dallas by 4, 4.5, 5   

Ov/Un:               39, 39.5, 40

 

100 Sims:           Dallas 52  Baltimore 48

Avg Sim Score:  Dallas 19  Baltimore 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Dallas 21  Baltimore 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Baltimore 20  Dallas 10

 

Strategy:     Baltimore +15 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +18 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

 

This could be the last game ever played in Texas Stadium, as the Cowboys could only host the NFC Championship if they finish as the higher-seeded wildcard team and they play the lower-seeded wildcard team.

 

Both teams played critical games last week and should enter this game at less than full strength, if only psychologically.  Baltimore should be ready to rebound.  I am not sure about the Dallas players.  Combine the dissension with the probable bounce from beating the Giants, and I think they could play below expectations this week.

 

I believe Baltimore has the better chance of winning, but I will play it close to the vest and select the Ravens in the teasers.  While I would normally tease the Over for a primetime game, I am guessing that the Ravens’ anger will benefit their defense and not their offense.  I am looking for a 17-13 Baltimore win.  Ray Lewis is mad, and that’s worth four points.

 

 

New Orleans (7-7-0) at Detroit (0-14-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                New Orleans by 12

Mean:                  New Orleans by 10

Bias:                    New Orleans by 10

 

Vegas:               New Orleans by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               50, 50.5, 51, 51.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 87  Detroit 13

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 36  Detroit 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 55  Detroit 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 34  New Orleans 27

 

Strategy:     Detroit +7½, Detroit +17½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +20½ in 13-point teaser 

 

Detroit has two weeks left to avoid a history-making season they definitely do not want to have.  They will be playing these last two games like they are playoff games.  I think this may be their better shot.

 

New Orleans was eliminated from the playoff hunt last week, and they have nothing to play for.  Reggie Bush may not play in this game, and you beat the Lions by running the ball down their throats.

 

New Orleans’ defense is just weak enough for Dan Orlovsky to pass for 200 yards.  I don’t know if it will be enough to win, but I think the Lions can beat the spread, even if they give up 400 passing yard to Drew Brees.

 

 

Cincinnati (2-11-1) at Cleveland (4-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow, strong wind, temperature in the mid to upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Cleveland by 7

Mean:                  Cleveland by 6

Bias:                    Cleveland by 4

 

Vegas:               Cleveland by 2.5, 3        

Ov/Un:               33.5, 34, 34.5

 

100 Sims:           Cleveland 63 Cincinnati 37

Avg Sim Score:  Cleveland 23 Cincinnati 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cleveland 40 Cincinnati 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cincinnati 28 Cleveland 14

 

Strategy:     Over 23½ in 10-point teaser, Over 20½ in 13-point teaser      

 

This is strictly a strategy pick here.  I think the average NFL team could put their defensive players on offense and have a good chance of scoring 20 points against the Bengals.  I think the Bengals have a 65% chance of scoring 20 points against the Browns.  The weather is the only negative intangible.  If it is really windy with blowing snow, it could hold the score down.  Still, I have to believe that a 14-10 final is about as low as the scoring could be in this one.  The actual attendance for this game might rival the attendance for the Humanitarian Bowl in a couple weeks.

 

Miami (9-5-0) at Kansas City (2-12-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the upper teens

 

PiRate:                Miami by 6

Mean:                  Miami by 5

Bias:                    Miami by 9

 

Vegas:                Miami by 3.5, 4

Ov/Un:               39.5, 40

 

100 Sims:           Miami 83  Kansas City 17

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 23  Kansas City 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Kansas City 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 21 Miami 16 (4 others ended in 5-point wins)

 

Strategy:     Kansas City +14 in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +17 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

 

Again, this game is another strategy pick game.  The Dolphins cannot prepare for 15-degree weather and wind chills below zero.  Kansas City seems to be the champion of losing close games.  Six of their losses have been by a touchdown or less.

 

Miami’s offense has been sputtering the last month or so, and I think the reason for it is that defenses have figured out how to play the single wing package.  The Dolphins’ defense should still control the Chiefs’ offense for most of the day, and I look for a final score of about 17-10 in favor of Tony Sparano’s Fish.

 

 

Pittsburgh (11-3-0) at Tennessee (12-2-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of light rain, strong wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 3

Mean:                  Tennessee by 1

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:               Pk, Pittsburgh by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5  

Ov/Un:               34.5, 35

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 61  Tennessee 39

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 19  Tennessee 15

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 24  Tennessee 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 16  Pittsburgh 7

 

Strategy:     Pittsburgh Pk, Pittsburgh +10 in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +13 in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 10-point teaser, Over 21½ in 13-point teaser, Pittsburgh -130 

The winner of this game will have control over home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  The Titans seemed to have it clinched a few weeks ago when they held a three-game lead over the field.  After losses to the Jets and Texans and with Pittsburgh on a five-game winning streak, it sets up this big game.

 

The Steelers come into this game rather healthy for Week 17.  The Titans are hurting big time.  Both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are finished for the regular season, and the Titans cannot rely on greybeard Jevon Kearse to be his old freakish self. 

 

Neither team strikes fear in opponents with their offenses, but Ben Roethlisberger is considerably better than Kerry Collins, and the Steelers’ receiving corps is much better than that of the Titans.

 

I believe the Steelers will outmuscle the Titans in the trenches and win an ugly game that leaves both teams in even worse shape as the final week approaches.  It is highly possible Tennessee will limp into the playoffs with a three-game losing streak, while Pittsburgh enjoys a seven-game winning streak with home field advantage theirs.

 

 

Philadelphia (8-5-1) at Washington (7-7-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain, freezing rain, and sleet, light wind, temperature falling through the 30’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 8

Mean:                  Philadelphia by 6

Bias:                    Philadelphia by 6

 

Vegas:               Philadelphia by 4.5, 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               39, 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 60  Washington 40

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 26  Washington 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 38  Washington 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 24  Philadelphia 13

 

Strategy:     Philadelphia -4½, Philadelphia -215, Philadelphia +5½ in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +8½ in 13-point teaser, Over 26 in 13-point teaser

Since Thanksgiving, the Eagles have played the best ball of all the NFC teams, while the Redskins performance has been no better than St. Louis or Detroit.

 

Both teams technically still have a chance to reach the playoffs, but Washington’s chances are about the same as one of their players winning the mega millions lottery.

 

Philadelphia has some amends to make up for after losing by six to the Redskins in early October.  At the time, the Eagles were in a funk while Washington was coming up with a way to win every week.  Expect a completely different game this week.  I’m looking for Philadelphia to win by five or more points and wouldn’t be surprised if that “more” was something like 10-17 points, as I am looking for Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook to shine.  

 

 

San Francisco (5-9-0) at St. Louis (2-12-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                San Francisco by 10

Mean:                 San Francisco by 7

Bias:                    San Francisco by 9

 

Vegas:                San Francisco by 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 68  St. Louis 32

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 25  St. Louis 17

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 35  St. Louis 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 17  San Francisco 12

 

Strategy:     Under 57 in 13-point teaser

Since that crazy 34-14 upset over Dallas, St. Louis has averaged just 11.6 points per game in their last eight games.  Since Mike Singletary took over as coach, the 49ers have yielded just 18.5 points per game (10.3 in their last 3).  That doesn’t bode well for the Rams’ offense.  I would be shocked if they reach 17 points in this contest.  San Francisco is no juggernaut on offense, and they could very well score 17 points or less themselves.

 

This game should be close, and I cannot see a scenario where both teams reach 20 points.  The highest score I could see in this would be around 28-17, so I like teasing the Under in this game.

 

 

San Diego (6-8-0) at Tampa Bay (9-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 70’s

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 5

Mean:                 Tampa Bay by 6

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 8

 

Vegas:                Tampa Bay by 3, 3.5      

Ov/Un:               42, 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 73  San Diego 27

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 29  San Diego 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 34  San Diego 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Diego 31  Tampa Bay 24

 

Strategy:     Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

San Diego is so unpredictable, while Tampa Bay has been out of sync the last couple of weeks.  I won’t begin to try to figure out which team will win this “must win” game, but I will surmise that both teams will top 17 points in this strategy play.  I am hesitant to pick the Buccaneers to win at home, as they have been struggling to put together a total effort in the last month. 

 

San Diego has been involved in nine close games, in which the Chargers have gone just 2-7.  They play about the same on the road as they do at home.  It wouldn’t be much of an upset if they won this game, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they found a way to lose another close one.

 

 

Arizona (8-6-0) at New England (9-5-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow, moderate wind, temperature in the low 30’s

 

PiRate:                New England by 2

Mean:                  New England by 4

Bias:                    New England by 4

 

Vegas:               New England by 7.5, 8, 9

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           New England 57  Arizona 43

Avg Sim Score:  New England 29  Arizona 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 41  Arizona 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Arizona 45  New England 28

 

Strategy:     New England +2½ in 10-point teaser, New England +5½ in 13-point teaser, New England -335, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser 

Arizona can do nothing to change its playoff destination.  The Cardinals will host an opening round game in the playoffs whether they finish 10-6, 9-7, or 8-8.  Yes, they could be the number three or number four seed, but it really won’t make much difference.

 

New England is still very much on the playoff bubble.  At 9-5-0, they are the eighth team in the AFC, and only six teams make the playoffs.  This game is much more important to them than it is to the Cardinals.  The snow and cold weather should help them a bit in this game.

 

Arizona is just 4-4 since their bye week.  The Cardinals have been struggling against the good teams and have fattened up on the weak teams.  Against teams with a losing record, they are 6-0.  In their last eight games against teams either in the playoffs or in the hunt for a playoff spot, they have given up 38 points per game.

 

New England is a Jekyll and Hyde team.  They have two typical offensive outputs.  Either they struggle offensively and lose 24-13 or they move the ball like they did most of last year and win 45-21.  I can see no reason not to believe that this will be one of those weeks where the Patriots have little trouble advancing the pigskin, even in inclement weather. 

 

Kurt Warner may pass for 300-350 yards, but I don’t see the Cardinals matching the Pats point for point.  I’ll go with Matt Cassel and crew to win 31-21 or thereabouts.

 

 

Houston (7-7-0) at Oakland (3-11-0)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Houston by 9

Mean:                 Houston by 9

Bias:                   Houston by 10

 

Vegas:               Houston by 7, 7.5, 8      

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 77  Oakland 23

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 26  Oakland 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 33  Oakland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Houston 23

 

Strategy:     Houston +3 in 10-point teaser, Houston +6 in 13-point teaser

Houston could easily be in the playoff mix this season if it weren’t for all the troubles the team endured at the beginning of the season due to the hurricane.  Two close losses to Indianapolis and an overtime loss to Jacksonville keep them from owning a 10-4-0 record.  The Texans have won four in a row, and they can see a winning record in their future.  They must win this game and then beat the Bears at Reliant Stadium next week to clinch their first ever winning season.

 

Oakland would just like for this season to end.  When they lost at home to the Chiefs, the Raider defense seemed to have folded up the tent for the season.

 

I think Houston could win this game in a blowout, but the Texans are coming off an emotional high after defeating Tennessee.  So, I must caution you to be conservative in this one and consider the possibility that Houston could be a little flat this week.  They may have a hard time just winning by any amount, so go with them in the teasers.

 

 

New York Jets (9-5-0) at Seattle (3-11-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 7

Mean:                 Jets by 4

Bias:                   Jets by 7

 

Vegas:                Jets by 4.5, 5, 6

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Jets 64  Seattle 36

Avg Sim Score:  Jets 32  Seattle 26

Outlier 1a Sim:  Jets 48  Seattle 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 30  Jets 24 ot (largest spread)

 

Strategy:     Seattle +16 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +19 in 13-point teaser, Under 57½ in 13-point teaser

This will be Mike Holmgren’s last home game as coach of the Seahawks, and look who will be the opposing quarterback-the guy who wears the same Super Bowl ring he wears.

 

The Jets have made three other trips to the West Coast this year.  They lost at San Diego 48-29, at Oakland 16-13 in OT, and at San Francisco 24-14.  Seattle is no worse than Oakland and split with San Francisco, so they should have a decent chance to win this one.

 

The Jets control their own destiny.  If they win this game and then beat the Dolphins next week, they are the AFC East Champions.  If they lose this week, then they will need a New England loss and a win over Miami to get into the playoffs.

 

Brett Favre usually finds a way to win this type of game.  I think the Jets realize they are unlikely to make the playoffs if they lose.  However, I don’t expect them to win by double digits.  They will be happy to win by a field goal, so I like the home team in the teasers.

 

 

Buffalo (6-8-0) at Denver (8-6-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Denver by 1

Mean:                 Denver by 4

Bias:                   Denver by 5

 

Vegas:                Denver by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               43.5, 44

 

100 Sims:           Denver 55  Buffalo 45

Avg Sim Score:  Denver 30  Buffalo 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Denver 41  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 28  Denver 17

 

Strategy:       Denver +3½ in 10-point teaser, Denver +6½ in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser

Two months ago, the Bills were 4-0 and the darlings of the NFL media world.  Coach Dick Jauron was a genius.  10 years go, Mike Shanahan was a genius.  Now, those same pundits believe neither coach could properly lead their teams out of paper bags.

 

The truth of the matter is that both of these teams have glaring holes on the defensive side of the ball, and both of these teams have been hurt by injuries on the attack side.

 

Trent Edwards will return to the lineup for Buffalo, and the Bills’ offense should rebound with a stellar effort.  Buffalo should top 21 points in this game.

 

Jay Cutler will go over 4,000 total passing yards in this game, as I expect him to top 275 yards against the Bills’ secondary.  Denver should top 24 points. 

 

The Broncos will win the AFC West without any help from Tampa Bay this week.  Look for the home team to win by five to eight points.    

 

 

Atlanta (9-5-0) at Minnesota (9-5-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Minnesota by 2

Mean:                  Minnesota by 4

Bias:                    Minnesota by 5

 

Vegas:               Minnesota by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Minnesota 52  Atlanta 48

Avg Sim Score:  Minnesota 24  Atlanta 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Minnesota 28  Atlanta 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Atlanta 23  Minnesota 13

 

Strategy:     Minnesota +7 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser

This is going to be a great game, and most of the nation will get to see it.  The Vikings will clinch the old black and blue division if they win, whereas the Falcons will likely move into the number six position in the playoff field if they win. 

 

Look at Minnesota’s resume since September.  The purple people eaters have won eight of their last 10 games.  The two losses have come on the road by seven and six points.  Gus Frerotte came off the bench to start the turnaround, but Tarvaris Jackson looked like an All-pro last week against Arizona.

 

Atlanta is a tough team in 2008.  They play like the Bears of the 1960’s and 1980’s.  Michael Turner should top the 1,500 yard rushing barrier some time during this game, and he should match Adrian Peterson yard for yard, even against the Vikings’ tough run defense.

 

The difference in this game could be Bernard Berrian.  He can take a simple pass reception and turn it into a 40 yard gain.  The Falcon secondary will have to play a little more loose to prevent Berrian from breaking a long one.  That should give Peterson just enough extra edge to have a five to six yards per carry average.  I’ll take the Vikings in a close one in the neighborhood of 24-21.

 

Carolina (11-3-0) at New York Giants (11-3-0)  

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Rain, sleet, and snow, moderate wind, temperature falling from the mid 30’s to the mid 20’s

                    

PiRate:                Giants by 4

Mean:                  Giants by 3

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:               Giants by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               37.5, 38, 38.5, 39

 

100 Sims:           Giants 51 Carolina 48 1 Tie (8 OT games)

Avg Sim Score:  Carolina 20  Giants 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Carolina 24  Giants 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Giants 21  Carolina 12

 

Strategy:     Carolina +13½ in 10-point teaser, Carolina +16½ in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 13-point teaser

Carolina has its offense in gear, averaging 32.4 points in their last five games.  The Giants have played more like the Rams since the Plaxico Burress shooting incident.  Now, Brandon Jacobs is hurting, and even though it looks like he will play, don’t expect him to rush for 70 yards Sunday night.

 

Carolina has been quite fortunate to this point of the season.  Their defense has stayed healthy all season with nary a start being missed.  That could change this week as defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu could miss this game with a tweaked ankle.

 

To the winner will more than likely go home field advantage for the playoffs.  I believe Carolina will pass the ball a little more than they normally do to set up the running game with their dynamic duo of James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  Jake Delhomme should pass for 200 yards, and the Panthers will win by about a field goal to a touchdown.

 

 

Green Bay (5-9-0) at Chicago (8-6-0)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Cloudy, moderate wind, temperature holding steady in the mid teens

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Chicago by 3

Bias:                    Chicago by 6

 

Vegas:                Chicago by 4, 4.5

Ov/Un:               41.5, 42

 

100 Sims:           Chicago 89  Green Bay 11

Avg Sim Score:  Chicago 29  Green Bay 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Chicago 37  Green Bay 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Green Bay 32  Chicago 27

 

Strategy:     Chicago -4, Chicago -195, Chicago +6 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +9 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

This is a tough game to analyze due to major intangible factors that won’t be known until Sunday evening.  If Minnesota beats Atlanta, then the Bears could be eliminated from the playoffs.  They will be eliminated from the NFC North race, and they will have only a tiny chance of gaining a wildcard spot.

 

Green Bay’s defense has gone south too many times this year, and that’s why the Packers are going to lose more than they win.  The offense hasn’t been as powerful since the first game against the Bears, and this game could see a near reversal of that one-but only if the Bears really have something to play for.

 

Regardless of the outcome in Minneapolis, I see Chicago winning this game by stopping the Green Bay offense and scoring just enough to be comfortably ahead as the fourth quarter starts.  Call it a 27-14 win on the Midway, as Kyle Orton passes for 250 yards against Aaron Rodgers’ 200 and a pick or two.

 

 

 A Bad Week Follow A Good Week

 

I made a mistake last week when I posted my picks for the week, and it wound up costing me two games.  Thus, I finished 1-4 when I should have gone 3-2.  Mistakes count, whether here or at a betting window, so I have to live with the consequences.  It made me quite upset when I realized it Sunday morning.

 

For the season, the record against the spread is now 95-79-7, which computes to 54.6%. 

 

I am going with a variety of picks this week, but I am not overly thrilled with the choices.  In past years, I have been more excited about the end of the season games than the early part of the schedule.  This year, I am finding it harder and harder to identify excellent plays as the season comes to the end.

 

Here are my wagers for week 17 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 44

 

2. Pittsburgh Pk vs. Tennessee

 

3. Philadelphia -4½ vs. Washington

 

4. Chicago -4 vs. Green Bay

 

5. Indianapolis -250 vs. Jacksonville

 

6. Philadelphia -215 vs. Washington

 

7. New England -335 vs. Arizona

 

8. Chicago -195 vs. Green Bay

 

9. 10-point teaser

Indianapolis +4 vs. Jacksonville

Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 34

Baltimore +15 vs. Dallas

 

10. 10-point teaser

Detroit +17½ vs. New Orleans

Cincinnati & Cleveland Over 23½

Kansas City +14 vs. Miami

 

11. 10-point teaser

Pittsburgh +10 vs. Tennessee

Philadelphia +5½ vs. Washington

San Diego & Tampa Bay Over 32

 

12. 10-point teaser

New England +2½ vs. Arizona

New England & Arizona Over 34

Houston +3 vs. Oakland

 

13. 10-point teaser

Seattle +16 vs. New York Jets

Denver +3½ vs. Buffalo

Minnesota +7 vs. Atlanta

 

14. 10-point teaser

Carolina +13½ vs. New York Giants

Chicago +6 vs. Green Bay

Chicago & Green Bay Over 31½

 

15. 13-point teaser

Baltimore +18 vs. Dallas

Kansas City +17 vs. Miami

Pittsburgh +13 vs. Tennessee

Philadelphia +8½ vs. Washington

 

16. 13-point teaser

San Francisco & St. Louis Under 57

New England +5½ vs. Arizona

New England & Arizona Over 31

Houston +6 vs. Oakland

 

17. 13-point teaser

Seattle +19 vs. New York Jets

Minnesota +10 vs. Atlanta

Carolina +16½ vs. New York Giants

Chicago +9 vs. Green Bay

   

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

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December 1, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation: Week 13–December 1, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation League: Week 13-December 1, 2008

 

The Pro Football Computer Simulation League for 2008 uses a fantastic season from the past between 1981 and 2007 for each of the 32 current NFL Franchises.  It uses the actual 2008 NFL schedule and then simulates games between the past great teams.  Last year’s simulation involved teams from 1960 to 1979.  The 1967 Oakland Raiders edged the 1968 Dallas Cowboys in the Simper Bowl.

 

Here are the results of this week’s games:

 

2000 Tennessee Titans  24  1991 Detroit Lions  6

Jevon Kearse picked up two sacks and Frank Wycheck caught 5 passes for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns, as the Titans spoiled Thanksgiving for Detroit fans. 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Det

0

3

3

0

 

6

2000 Ten

0

10

7

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Det

Stat

Ten

 

 

 

 

11

FD

17

 

 

 

 

28-92

Rush-Yds

38-147

 

 

 

 

144

Pass Yds

168

 

 

 

 

13-23-1

Passes

15-25-0

 

 

 

 

3-19

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

7-47.3

Punt

5-43.6

 

 

 

 

2-11

PR

4-67

 

 

 

 

6-64

Pen

4-25

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

54

Play

63

 

 

 

 

217

Tot Yds

315

 

 

 

1992 Dallas Cowboys  27  2005 Seattle Seahawks  20

Emmitt Smith rushed for 136 yards on 22 carries and scored the game-clinching touchdown, and the Cowboys’ defense stopped Seattle on downs late in the game at the Dallas 28 yard line.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1992 Dal

7

10

10

0

 

27

2005 Sea

7

3

3

7

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dal

Stat

Sea

 

 

 

 

19

FD

15

 

 

 

 

41-196

Rush-Yds

31-87

 

 

 

 

174

Pass Yds

193

 

 

 

 

15-25-0

Passes

16-28-2

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

4-41.0

Punt

5-41.8

 

 

 

 

2-29

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

6-45

Pen

8-87

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

67

Play

60

 

 

 

 

364

Tot Yds

273

 

 

 

2004 Philadelphia Eagles  27  1998 Arizona Cardinals  7

Terrell Owens caught 5 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown, and the Eagles’ defense forced three turnovers, as Philadelphia cruised to an easy win.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2004 Phi

14

7

3

3

 

27

1998 Ari

0

0

0

7

 

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phi

Stat

Ari

 

 

 

 

20

FD

14

 

 

 

 

38-114

Rush-Yds

21-55

 

 

 

 

266

Pass Yds

168

 

 

 

 

19-32-0

Passes

17-36-2

 

 

 

 

1-8

Sacks

3-21

 

 

 

 

4-43.3

Punt

6-34.3

 

 

 

 

2-14

PR

1-7

 

 

 

 

3-20

Pen

5-45

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

71

Play

60

 

 

 

 

372

Tot Yds

202

 

 

 

 

1998 New York Jets  25  1998 Denver Broncos  24

Vinny Testaverde threw touchdown passes of 19 and 23 yards to Keyshawn Johnson and Bryan Cox sacked John Elway for a safety as the Jets upset the Broncos at the Meadowlands.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 NYJ

9

6

10

0

 

25

1998 Den

3

7

14

0

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYJ

Stat

Den

 

 

 

 

16

FD

17

 

 

 

 

42-163

Rush-Yds

25-103

 

 

 

 

152

Pass Yds

214

 

 

 

 

14-24-0

Passes

17-31-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-9

 

 

 

 

5-44.4

Punt

5-40.4

 

 

 

 

2-9

PR

1-12

 

 

 

 

5-39

Pen

6-55

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

66

Play

57

 

 

 

 

315

Tot Yds

308

 

 

 

1984 Miami Dolphins  45  1999 St. Louis Rams  42 OT

Dan Marino threw 5 touchdown passes including a 42-yard bomb to Mark Clayton in the final minutes of regulation to force overtime.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Stl

7

14

14

7

0

42

1984 Mia

7

7

14

14

3

45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stl

Stat

Mia

 

 

 

 

26

FD

27

 

 

 

 

31-127

Rush-Yds

29-88

 

 

 

 

365

Pass Yds

401

 

 

 

 

24-39-1

Passes

29-52-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-5

 

 

 

 

3-41.3

Punt

3-47.7

 

 

 

 

1-11

PR

1-(-1)

 

 

 

 

4-42

Pen

6-40

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

71

Play

82

 

 

 

 

485

Tot Yds

484

 

 

 

 

1991 Washington Redskins  17  1986 New York Giants  13

Earnest Byner’s 4-yard TD run with 2:11 to play in the game provided the Redskins with the winning points in a game played with first place on the line in the NFC East.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Was

3

7

0

7

 

17

1986 NYG

3

3

7

0

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Was

Stat

NYG

 

 

 

 

16

FD

15

 

 

 

 

39-143

Rush-Yds

28-77

 

 

 

 

158

Pass Yds

224

 

 

 

 

14-23-1

Passes

14-26-1

 

 

 

 

2-11

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

6-40.3

Punt

8-42.0

 

 

 

 

5-41

PR

3-23

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

3-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

55

 

 

 

 

290

Tot Yds

293

 

 

 

 

1987 New Orleans Saints  19  2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers  16

Mel Gray returned a fourth quarter punt 42 yards to set up the Saints at the Tampa Bay 31 yard line.  Six plays later Bobby Hebert used a QB sneak to score from inside the 1 yard line with 0:13 to play.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2002 TB

3

7

3

3

 

16

1987 NO

7

5

0

7

 

19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TB

Stat

NO

 

 

 

 

16

FD

16

 

 

 

 

38-149

Rush-Yds

26-96

 

 

 

 

157

Pass Yds

222

 

 

 

 

13-21-0

Passes

17-29-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-12

 

 

 

 

9-42.6

Punt

7-40.3

 

 

 

 

4-35

PR

5-102

 

 

 

 

5-50

Pen

4-31

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

59

Play

57

 

 

 

 

306

Tot Yds

306

 

 

 

 

2005 Indianapolis Colts  41  1987 Cleveland Browns  17

Edgerrin James rushed for 119 yards and caught 3 passes for 35 yards and a score, and Marvin Harrison hauled in 7 passes for 113 yards and 3 touchdowns.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1987 Cle

7

0

10

0

 

17

2005 Ind

14

13

14

0

 

41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cle

Stat

Ind

 

 

 

 

12

FD

23

 

 

 

 

18-55

Rush-Yds

39-181

 

 

 

 

174

Pass Yds

285

 

 

 

 

13-28-3

Passes

19-32-0

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

8-42.1

Punt

4-43.8

 

 

 

 

3-45

PR

4-35

 

 

 

 

5-35

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

3-1

 

 

 

 

47

Play

72

 

 

 

 

222

Tot Yds

460

 

 

 

 

1990 Buffalo Bills  30  1984 San Francisco 49ers  24

Thurman Thomas rushed 29 times for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Bills’ defense forced Joe Montana into 2 interceptions and a fumble on a QB sack.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1990 Buf

14

10

3

3

 

30

1984 SF

7

7

3

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buf

Stat

SF

 

 

 

 

22

FD

21

 

 

 

 

34-216

Rush-Yds

30-122

 

 

 

 

247

Pass Yds

211

 

 

 

 

19-31-1

Passes

19-34-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

3-46.3

Punt

5-42.4

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-11

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

65

Play

66

 

 

 

 

463

Tot Yds

320

 

 

 

 

1981 Cincinnati Bengals  13  2000 Baltimore Ravens  10

Pete Johnson’s 2 yard touchdown run in the 3rd quarter was set up by Ross Browner’s 33 yard fumble return.  The Bengals’ defense stopped the Baltimore running game.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1981 Cin

3

3

7

0

 

13

2000 Bal

7

0

3

0

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cin

Stat

Bal

 

 

 

 

18

FD

13

 

 

 

 

37-136

Rush-Yds

25-85

 

 

 

 

153

Pass Yds

142

 

 

 

 

12-25-1

Passes

13-28-0

 

 

 

 

2-19

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

9-40.2

Punt

8-36.9

 

 

 

 

1-5

PR

4-51

 

 

 

 

4-20

Pen

11-102

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

55

 

 

 

 

270

Tot Yds

212

 

 

 

 

1996 Green Bay Packers  34  1996 Carolina Panthers  13

Brett Favre completed a 74 yard TD pass to Don Beebe and a 58 yard TD pass to Antonio Freeman, as the Packers won a rematch of the 1996 NFC Championship Game.  Green Bay won that real game 30-13.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1996 GB

10

10

7

7

 

34

1996 Car

0

3

3

7

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GB

Stat

Car

 

 

 

 

19

FD

14

 

 

 

 

41-156

Rush-Yds

17-45

 

 

 

 

269

Pass Yds

220

 

 

 

 

14-25-0

Passes

19-34-3

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

6-45.5

Punt

7-41.4

 

 

 

 

4-53

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

5-33

Pen

4-35

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

66

Play

52

 

 

 

 

425

Tot Yds

257

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1998 Atlanta Falcons  21  2006 San Diego Chargers  20

Jamal Anderson rushed for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns to give the Falcons all the points they needed.  Atlanta stays in contention in the NFC South, while San Diego falls two games back in the AFC West.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2006 SD

0

6

0

14

 

20

1998 Atl

7

7

7

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SD

Stat

Atl

 

 

 

 

16

FD

17

 

 

 

 

31-116

Rush-Yds

42-192

 

 

 

 

183

Pass Yds

139

 

 

 

 

16-29-1

Passes

11-19-0

 

 

 

 

2-13

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

6-43.2

Punt

6-42.0

 

 

 

 

3-25

PR

2-24

 

 

 

 

5-35

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-0

 

 

 

 

62

Play

62

 

 

 

 

286

Tot Yds

324

 

 

 

2007 New England Patriots  38  2005 Pittsburgh Steelers  16

Randy Moss grabbed 5 passes for 141 yards and 2 TDs.  He took one quick screen at the line of scrimmage and ran 58 yards after the catch.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 NE

17

7

7

7

 

38

2005 Pit

3

0

6

7

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NE

Stat

Pit

 

 

 

 

18

FD

19

 

 

 

 

25-103

Rush-Yds

35-147

 

 

 

 

296

Pass Yds

179

 

 

 

 

21-33-0

Passes

14-27-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-23

 

 

 

 

3-47.0

Punt

6-41.8

 

 

 

 

3-43

PR

0-0

 

 

 

 

5-40

Pen

6-48

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

58

Play

65

 

 

 

 

399

Tot Yds

303

 

 

 

2003 Kansas City Chiefs  27  2000 Oakland Raiders  21

Trent Green rushed for 1 TD and passed for 2 others as the Chiefs won for just the third time this season.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Oak

7

14

0

0

 

21

2003 KC

3

10

0

14

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oak

Stat

KC

 

 

 

 

15

FD

21

 

 

 

 

22-90

Rush-Yds

28-95

 

 

 

 

177

Pass Yds

343

 

 

 

 

15-26-1

Passes

26-45-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

6-45.8

Punt

4-40.8

 

 

 

 

2-67

PR

3-44

 

 

 

 

8-80

Pen

4-36

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

49

Play

74

 

 

 

 

260

Tot Yds

432

 

 

 

 

1998 Minnesota Vikings  21  1985 Chicago Bears  17

The 1998 Vikings proved they belong in the playoff chase as they moved in to a tie for second just one game behind Green Bay in the black and blue division.  Chicago had the ball at the Minnesota 6 yard line on 2nd & 1 late in the game.  The Bears were unable to score and turned the ball over on downs at the Viking 2 yard line.  Jimmy Hitchcock’s 56 yard interception return on the first play of the 4th quarter proved to be the winning score.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Min

0

7

7

7

 

21

1985 Chi

7

3

7

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Min

Stat

Chi

 

 

 

 

14

FD

17

 

 

 

 

21-57

Rush-Yds

42-159

 

 

 

 

231

Pass Yds

147

 

 

 

 

16-28-2

Passes

13-24-2

 

 

 

 

3-17

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

7-46.6

Punt

5-44.4

 

 

 

 

3-22

PR

2-19

 

 

 

 

5-30

Pen

7-48

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

52

Play

67

 

 

 

 

271

Tot Yds

299

 

 

 

 

2007 Houston Texans  31  1999 Jacksonville Jaguars  27

Andre Davis returned a kickoff 102 yards for the winning touchdown after Jacksonville had taken a 27-24 lead.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 Hou

0

17

7

7

 

31

1999 Jac

3

3

14

7

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hou

Stat

Jac

 

 

 

 

19

FD

17

 

 

 

 

21-69

Rush-Yds

37-141

 

 

 

 

308

Pass Yds

171

 

 

 

 

25-43-2

Passes

15-26-1

 

 

 

 

4-25

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

4-41.8

Punt

3-42.3

 

 

 

 

1-11

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

5-39

Pen

6-45

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

64

 

 

 

 

352

Tot Yds

305

 

 

 

Current Standings

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation League

National Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1991 Washington Redskins

8

4

0

246

169

104.3

1992 Dallas Cowboys

7

5

0

247

254

99.2

1986 New York Giants

6

6

0

191

161

101.3

2004 Philadelphia Eagles

4

8

0

194

216

97.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1985 Chicago Bears

9

3

0

248

171

108.5

1996 Green Bay Packers

8

4

0

362

198

115.1

1998 Minnesota Vikings

8

4

0

329

247

109.5

1991 Detroit Lions

2

10

0

196

310

94.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7

5

0

230

199

102.8

1987 New Orleans Saints

6

6

0

245

228

102.6

1998 Atlanta Falcons

6

6

0

223

298

95.3

1996 Carolina Panthers

5

7

0

239

292

96.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1999 St. Louis Rams

9

3

0

338

281

103.6

1984 San Francisco 49ers

7

5

0

306

220

105.4

2005 Seattle Seahawks

5

7

0

223

307

93.9

1998 Arizona Cardinals

2

10

0

164

328

87.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2007 New England Patriots

8

4

0

393

275

107.7

1990 Buffalo Bills

7

5

0

325

260

103.7

1998 New York Jets

6

6

0

248

293

96.5

1984 Miami Dolphins

4

8

0

322

391

93.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Baltimore Ravens

9

3

0

164

160

98.1

1981 Cincinnati Bengals

6

6

0

219

222

97.5

1987 Cleveland Browns

4

8

0

189

281

92.2

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

2

10

0

178

245

94.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Tennessee Titans

10

2

0

279

118

112.4

1999 Jacksonville Jaguars

5

7

0

229

250

100.2

2005 Indianapolis Colts

5

7

0

274

305

99.4

2007 Houston Texans

4

8

0

257

348

93.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1998 Denver Broncos

9

3

0

355

251

106.5

2006 San Diego Chargers

7

5

0

287

251

101.5

2000 Oakland Raiders

4

8

0

236

284

95.2

2003 Kansas City Chiefs

3

9

0

265

395

90.1

 

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