PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 16
A Preview Of The Conference Championship Games?
What a coincidence! The Steelers go to Nashville, and the Panthers go to the Meadowlands in what could very well be a preview of the AFC and NFC Championship games. Personally, I don’t think we will see either of these games replayed in the same venues in four weeks.
There are several other key games this week. Indianapolis can clinch the number five playoff spot in the AFC if they defeat Jacksonville. Baltimore and Dallas hook up in an important Saturday night game. The loser of this game might need help in week 17.
Miami faces a possible trap game at Kansas City, where the temperature is going to be well below freezing.
Philadelphia and Washington play an eliminator game, where the loser can hang it up for the season.
Arizona has a tough date at New England, where the Patriots are almost in a must-win situation.
Atlanta and Minnesota play in the Fox second game, and the winner will be in great shape, while the loser is in trouble (especially if Chicago wins Monday night).
The Jets must travel to the West Coast for the fourth time this season. They are 0-3 so far.
Denver can secure the AFC West with a win over swooning Buffalo or a San Diego loss at Tampa Bay. The Bucs need to win against the Chargers.
On Monday night, the Bears may be playing for a chance to knot the NFC North, or they could already be eliminated depending on what happens in Minneapolis.
The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)
The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version. The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula. No subjective data is used.
The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule. As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October.
The Mean Ratings (Mean)
Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version. The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations. Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule. Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing. Point values are assigned based on each set of data. The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s. The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.
The Bias Ratings (Biased)
The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings. The five ratings are not given equal weight. The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%. I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.
All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average. If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100. The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league. A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average.
I do not attempt to rate teams from different years. A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972. We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.
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Current NFL Standings |
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| NFC East |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
Mean |
Biased |
HTA |
|
| New York |
11 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
374 |
246 |
108.62 |
107.01 |
106.50 |
2 |
|
| Dallas |
9 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
332 |
288 |
102.95 |
103.96 |
105.36 |
2 |
|
| Philadelphia |
8 |
– |
5 |
– |
1 |
369 |
273 |
107.60 |
106.03 |
106.70 |
2 |
|
| Washington |
7 |
– |
7 |
– |
0 |
231 |
266 |
97.77 |
98.22 |
98.97 |
2 |
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| NFC North |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
Mean |
Biased |
HTA |
|
| Minnesota |
9 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
342 |
290 |
105.12 |
105.24 |
106.65 |
2 |
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| Chicago |
8 |
– |
6 |
– |
0 |
331 |
302 |
103.12 |
101.77 |
101.95 |
2 |
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| Green Bay |
5 |
– |
9 |
– |
0 |
371 |
339 |
104.35 |
101.02 |
97.85 |
2 |
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| Detroit |
0 |
– |
14 |
– |
0 |
240 |
444 |
88.47 |
89.81 |
88.23 |
3 |
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| NFC South |
Won |
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Lost |
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Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
Mean |
Biased |
HTA |
|
| Carolina |
11 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
353 |
264 |
106.47 |
105.55 |
107.58 |
2 |
|
| Tampa Bay |
9 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
313 |
251 |
105.19 |
103.84 |
105.78 |
2 |
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| Atlanta |
9 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
336 |
281 |
104.71 |
103.45 |
103.21 |
2 |
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| New Orleans |
7 |
– |
7 |
– |
0 |
390 |
353 |
103.29 |
102.62 |
100.96 |
2 |
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| NFC West |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
Mean |
Biased |
HTA |
|
| Arizona |
8 |
– |
6 |
– |
0 |
386 |
358 |
100.03 |
99.65 |
100.31 |
3 |
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| San Francisco |
5 |
– |
9 |
– |
0 |
295 |
341 |
94.85 |
96.51 |
96.25 |
3 |
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| Seattle |
3 |
– |
11 |
– |
0 |
260 |
355 |
91.65 |
93.14 |
92.53 |
3 |
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| St. Louis |
2 |
– |
12 |
– |
0 |
189 |
417 |
83.33 |
87.70 |
84.98 |
2 |
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| AFC East |
Won |
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Lost |
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Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
Mean |
Biased |
HTA |
|
| New York |
9 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
385 |
319 |
101.06 |
100.30 |
102.45 |
2 |
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| New England |
9 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
350 |
302 |
100.33 |
101.54 |
102.55 |
2 |
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| Miami |
9 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
283 |
269 |
98.18 |
99.21 |
101.65 |
2 |
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| Buffalo |
6 |
– |
8 |
– |
0 |
306 |
306 |
96.18 |
95.64 |
95.74 |
3 |
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| AFC North |
Won |
|
Lost |
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Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
Mean |
Biased |
HTA |
|
| Pittsburgh |
11 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
302 |
192 |
109.24 |
108.44 |
108.71 |
2 |
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| Baltimore |
9 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
325 |
213 |
108.79 |
107.24 |
107.78 |
3 |
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| Cleveland |
4 |
– |
10 |
– |
0 |
232 |
305 |
96.76 |
96.59 |
94.25 |
2 |
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| Cincinnati |
2 |
– |
11 |
– |
1 |
174 |
358 |
91.41 |
92.93 |
91.84 |
2 |
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| AFC South |
Won |
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Lost |
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Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
Mean |
Biased |
HTA |
|
| Tennessee |
12 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
344 |
197 |
109.87 |
107.77 |
108.10 |
2 |
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| Indianapolis |
10 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
323 |
274 |
104.76 |
104.55 |
106.44 |
2 |
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| Houston |
7 |
– |
7 |
– |
0 |
319 |
343 |
100.27 |
101.56 |
101.34 |
3 |
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| Jacksonville |
5 |
– |
9 |
– |
0 |
271 |
309 |
98.34 |
97.85 |
96.61 |
3 |
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| AFC West |
Won |
|
Lost |
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Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
Mean |
Biased |
HTA |
|
| Denver |
8 |
– |
6 |
– |
0 |
326 |
366 |
95.50 |
97.62 |
99.00 |
2 |
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| San Diego |
6 |
– |
8 |
– |
0 |
346 |
302 |
101.75 |
100.18 |
99.56 |
2 |
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| Oakland |
3 |
– |
11 |
– |
0 |
205 |
348 |
89.46 |
90.76 |
89.22 |
2 |
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| Kansas City |
2 |
– |
12 |
– |
0 |
254 |
386 |
90.65 |
92.31 |
90.97 |
2 |
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If The Playoffs Started Today
NFC 1st Round
#6 Tampa Bay at #3 Minnesota
#5 Dallas at #4 Arizona
#1 New York Giants would host lower surviving seed
#2 Carolina would host higher surviving seed
Still Alive
Atlanta 9-5-0, Philadelphia 8-5-1, Chicago 8-6-0, Washington 7-7-0
AFC 1st Round
#6 Baltimore at #3 New York Jets
#5 Indianapolis at #4 Denver
#1 Tennessee would host lower surviving seed
#2 Pittsburgh would host higher surviving seed
Still Alive
Miami 9-5-0 leads New England 9-5-0
San Diego would beat out Denver if both finished 8-8-0
Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST
You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un. I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs. Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source. You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books. What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book. When I believe it is okay to play different spreads of the same game, I have put those numbers in parentheses. If you don’t see different choices, then I only recommend that single spread for that game.
I leave it to you to find out the book in question. Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms. Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.
Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.
NFL Previews-Week 16
Indianapolis (10-4-0) at Jacksonville (5-9-0)
Time: 8:15 PM EST, Thursday
TV: NFL Network
Forecast: Clear, light wind, temperature falling from the upper to mid 60’s
PiRate: Indianapolis by 3
Mean: Indianapolis by 4
Bias: Indianapolis by 7
Vegas: Indianapolis by 6, 6.5, 7
Ov/Un: 44, 44.5
100 Sims: Indianapolis 79 Jacksonville 21
Avg Sim Score: Indianapolis 27 Jacksonville 22
Outlier 1a Sim: Indianapolis 38 Jacksonville 13
Outlier 1b Sim: Jacksonville 27 Indianapolis 17
Strategy: Over 44, Indianapolis +4 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +7 in 13-point teaser, Indianapolis -250, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser
Indianapolis has something to play for in this game as well as some revenge for a nasty loss in September. Jacksonville will finish in last place in the division after being picked to win it by many pundits.
The Colts have won seven games straight after losing at Tennessee to fall to 3-4. It is my belief that they will win this game and win next week against Tennessee to finish in a tie for first in the division (Titans hold the tiebreaker edge).
By winning this game, Indianapolis will sew up the #5 seed in the AFC Playoffs, and that means playing at Denver (San Diego) rather than the AFC East Champion. I think they will be ready to play, and it will lead to a touchdown or more victory. Then, watch out for Peyton Manning in the playoffs.
Baltimore (9-5-0) at Dallas (9-5-0)
Time: 8:15 PM EST, Saturday
TV: NFL
Forecast: Thunderstorms possible, then clearing as a cold front moves through, moderate wins, temperature at kickoff in the low to mid 60’s but dropping rapidly to the low 40’s
PiRate: Baltimore by 4
Mean: Baltimore by 1
Bias: Tossup
Vegas: Dallas by 4, 4.5, 5
Ov/Un: 39, 39.5, 40
100 Sims: Dallas 52 Baltimore 48
Avg Sim Score: Dallas 19 Baltimore 18
Outlier 1a Sim: Dallas 21 Baltimore 7
Outlier 1b Sim: Baltimore 20 Dallas 10
Strategy: Baltimore +15 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +18 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser
This could be the last game ever played in Texas Stadium, as the Cowboys could only host the NFC Championship if they finish as the higher-seeded wildcard team and they play the lower-seeded wildcard team.
Both teams played critical games last week and should enter this game at less than full strength, if only psychologically. Baltimore should be ready to rebound. I am not sure about the Dallas players. Combine the dissension with the probable bounce from beating the Giants, and I think they could play below expectations this week.
I believe Baltimore has the better chance of winning, but I will play it close to the vest and select the Ravens in the teasers. While I would normally tease the Over for a primetime game, I am guessing that the Ravens’ anger will benefit their defense and not their offense. I am looking for a 17-13 Baltimore win. Ray Lewis is mad, and that’s worth four points.
New Orleans (7-7-0) at Detroit (0-14-0)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: New Orleans by 12
Mean: New Orleans by 10
Bias: New Orleans by 10
Vegas: New Orleans by 6.5, 7, 7.5
Ov/Un: 50, 50.5, 51, 51.5
100 Sims: New Orleans 87 Detroit 13
Avg Sim Score: New Orleans 36 Detroit 22
Outlier 1a Sim: New Orleans 55 Detroit 20
Outlier 1b Sim: Detroit 34 New Orleans 27
Strategy: Detroit +7½, Detroit +17½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +20½ in 13-point teaser
Detroit has two weeks left to avoid a history-making season they definitely do not want to have. They will be playing these last two games like they are playoff games. I think this may be their better shot.
New Orleans was eliminated from the playoff hunt last week, and they have nothing to play for. Reggie Bush may not play in this game, and you beat the Lions by running the ball down their throats.
New Orleans’ defense is just weak enough for Dan Orlovsky to pass for 200 yards. I don’t know if it will be enough to win, but I think the Lions can beat the spread, even if they give up 400 passing yard to Drew Brees.
Cincinnati (2-11-1) at Cleveland (4-10-0)
Time: 1PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Snow, strong wind, temperature in the mid to upper 30’s
PiRate: Cleveland by 7
Mean: Cleveland by 6
Bias: Cleveland by 4
Vegas: Cleveland by 2.5, 3
Ov/Un: 33.5, 34, 34.5
100 Sims: Cleveland 63 Cincinnati 37
Avg Sim Score: Cleveland 23 Cincinnati 19
Outlier 1a Sim: Cleveland 40 Cincinnati 21
Outlier 1b Sim: Cincinnati 28 Cleveland 14
Strategy: Over 23½ in 10-point teaser, Over 20½ in 13-point teaser
This is strictly a strategy pick here. I think the average NFL team could put their defensive players on offense and have a good chance of scoring 20 points against the Bengals. I think the Bengals have a 65% chance of scoring 20 points against the Browns. The weather is the only negative intangible. If it is really windy with blowing snow, it could hold the score down. Still, I have to believe that a 14-10 final is about as low as the scoring could be in this one. The actual attendance for this game might rival the attendance for the Humanitarian Bowl in a couple weeks.
Miami (9-5-0) at Kansas City (2-12-0)
Time: 1PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the upper teens
PiRate: Miami by 6
Mean: Miami by 5
Bias: Miami by 9
Vegas: Miami by 3.5, 4
Ov/Un: 39.5, 40
100 Sims: Miami 83 Kansas City 17
Avg Sim Score: Miami 23 Kansas City 18
Outlier 1a Sim: Miami 27 Kansas City 10
Outlier 1b Sim: Kansas City 21 Miami 16 (4 others ended in 5-point wins)
Strategy: Kansas City +14 in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +17 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser
Again, this game is another strategy pick game. The Dolphins cannot prepare for 15-degree weather and wind chills below zero. Kansas City seems to be the champion of losing close games. Six of their losses have been by a touchdown or less.
Miami’s offense has been sputtering the last month or so, and I think the reason for it is that defenses have figured out how to play the single wing package. The Dolphins’ defense should still control the Chiefs’ offense for most of the day, and I look for a final score of about 17-10 in favor of Tony Sparano’s Fish.
Pittsburgh (11-3-0) at Tennessee (12-2-0)
Time: 1PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Chance of light rain, strong wind, temperature in the upper 40’s
PiRate: Tennessee by 3
Mean: Tennessee by 1
Bias: Tennessee by 1
Vegas: Pk, Pittsburgh by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5
Ov/Un: 34.5, 35
100 Sims: Pittsburgh 61 Tennessee 39
Avg Sim Score: Pittsburgh 19 Tennessee 15
Outlier 1a Sim: Pittsburgh 24 Tennessee 10
Outlier 1b Sim: Tennessee 16 Pittsburgh 7
Strategy: Pittsburgh Pk, Pittsburgh +10 in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +13 in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 10-point teaser, Over 21½ in 13-point teaser, Pittsburgh -130
The winner of this game will have control over home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The Titans seemed to have it clinched a few weeks ago when they held a three-game lead over the field. After losses to the Jets and Texans and with Pittsburgh on a five-game winning streak, it sets up this big game.
The Steelers come into this game rather healthy for Week 17. The Titans are hurting big time. Both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are finished for the regular season, and the Titans cannot rely on greybeard Jevon Kearse to be his old freakish self.
Neither team strikes fear in opponents with their offenses, but Ben Roethlisberger is considerably better than Kerry Collins, and the Steelers’ receiving corps is much better than that of the Titans.
I believe the Steelers will outmuscle the Titans in the trenches and win an ugly game that leaves both teams in even worse shape as the final week approaches. It is highly possible Tennessee will limp into the playoffs with a three-game losing streak, while Pittsburgh enjoys a seven-game winning streak with home field advantage theirs.
Philadelphia (8-5-1) at Washington (7-7-0)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet, light wind, temperature falling through the 30’s
PiRate: Philadelphia by 8
Mean: Philadelphia by 6
Bias: Philadelphia by 6
Vegas: Philadelphia by 4.5, 5, 5.5
Ov/Un: 39, 39.5
100 Sims: Philadelphia 60 Washington 40
Avg Sim Score: Philadelphia 26 Washington 20
Outlier 1a Sim: Philadelphia 38 Washington 16
Outlier 1b Sim: Washington 24 Philadelphia 13
Strategy: Philadelphia -4½, Philadelphia -215, Philadelphia +5½ in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +8½ in 13-point teaser, Over 26 in 13-point teaser
Since Thanksgiving, the Eagles have played the best ball of all the NFC teams, while the Redskins performance has been no better than St. Louis or Detroit.
Both teams technically still have a chance to reach the playoffs, but Washington’s chances are about the same as one of their players winning the mega millions lottery.
Philadelphia has some amends to make up for after losing by six to the Redskins in early October. At the time, the Eagles were in a funk while Washington was coming up with a way to win every week. Expect a completely different game this week. I’m looking for Philadelphia to win by five or more points and wouldn’t be surprised if that “more” was something like 10-17 points, as I am looking for Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook to shine.
San Francisco (5-9-0) at St. Louis (2-12-0)
Time: 1:00PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: San Francisco by 10
Mean: San Francisco by 7
Bias: San Francisco by 9
Vegas: San Francisco by 5, 5.5
Ov/Un: 43, 43.5, 44
100 Sims: San Francisco 68 St. Louis 32
Avg Sim Score: San Francisco 25 St. Louis 17
Outlier 1a Sim: San Francisco 35 St. Louis 13
Outlier 1b Sim: St. Louis 17 San Francisco 12
Strategy: Under 57 in 13-point teaser
Since that crazy 34-14 upset over Dallas, St. Louis has averaged just 11.6 points per game in their last eight games. Since Mike Singletary took over as coach, the 49ers have yielded just 18.5 points per game (10.3 in their last 3). That doesn’t bode well for the Rams’ offense. I would be shocked if they reach 17 points in this contest. San Francisco is no juggernaut on offense, and they could very well score 17 points or less themselves.
This game should be close, and I cannot see a scenario where both teams reach 20 points. The highest score I could see in this would be around 28-17, so I like teasing the Under in this game.
San Diego (6-8-0) at Tampa Bay (9-5-0)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 70’s
PiRate: Tampa Bay by 5
Mean: Tampa Bay by 6
Bias: Tampa Bay by 8
Vegas: Tampa Bay by 3, 3.5
Ov/Un: 42, 42.5
100 Sims: Tampa Bay 73 San Diego 27
Avg Sim Score: Tampa Bay 29 San Diego 20
Outlier 1a Sim: Tampa Bay 34 San Diego 13
Outlier 1b Sim: San Diego 31 Tampa Bay 24
Strategy: Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser
San Diego is so unpredictable, while Tampa Bay has been out of sync the last couple of weeks. I won’t begin to try to figure out which team will win this “must win” game, but I will surmise that both teams will top 17 points in this strategy play. I am hesitant to pick the Buccaneers to win at home, as they have been struggling to put together a total effort in the last month.
San Diego has been involved in nine close games, in which the Chargers have gone just 2-7. They play about the same on the road as they do at home. It wouldn’t be much of an upset if they won this game, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they found a way to lose another close one.
Arizona (8-6-0) at New England (9-5-0)
Time: 1:00PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Light snow, moderate wind, temperature in the low 30’s
PiRate: New England by 2
Mean: New England by 4
Bias: New England by 4
Vegas: New England by 7.5, 8, 9
Ov/Un: 44, 44.5
100 Sims: New England 57 Arizona 43
Avg Sim Score: New England 29 Arizona 27
Outlier 1a Sim: New England 41 Arizona 24
Outlier 1b Sim: Arizona 45 New England 28
Strategy: New England +2½ in 10-point teaser, New England +5½ in 13-point teaser, New England -335, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser
Arizona can do nothing to change its playoff destination. The Cardinals will host an opening round game in the playoffs whether they finish 10-6, 9-7, or 8-8. Yes, they could be the number three or number four seed, but it really won’t make much difference.
New England is still very much on the playoff bubble. At 9-5-0, they are the eighth team in the AFC, and only six teams make the playoffs. This game is much more important to them than it is to the Cardinals. The snow and cold weather should help them a bit in this game.
Arizona is just 4-4 since their bye week. The Cardinals have been struggling against the good teams and have fattened up on the weak teams. Against teams with a losing record, they are 6-0. In their last eight games against teams either in the playoffs or in the hunt for a playoff spot, they have given up 38 points per game.
New England is a Jekyll and Hyde team. They have two typical offensive outputs. Either they struggle offensively and lose 24-13 or they move the ball like they did most of last year and win 45-21. I can see no reason not to believe that this will be one of those weeks where the Patriots have little trouble advancing the pigskin, even in inclement weather.
Kurt Warner may pass for 300-350 yards, but I don’t see the Cardinals matching the Pats point for point. I’ll go with Matt Cassel and crew to win 31-21 or thereabouts.
Houston (7-7-0) at Oakland (3-11-0)
Time: 4:05PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s
PiRate: Houston by 9
Mean: Houston by 9
Bias: Houston by 10
Vegas: Houston by 7, 7.5, 8
Ov/Un: 44, 44.5
100 Sims: Houston 77 Oakland 23
Avg Sim Score: Houston 26 Oakland 18
Outlier 1a Sim: Houston 33 Oakland 14
Outlier 1b Sim: Oakland 27 Houston 23
Strategy: Houston +3 in 10-point teaser, Houston +6 in 13-point teaser
Houston could easily be in the playoff mix this season if it weren’t for all the troubles the team endured at the beginning of the season due to the hurricane. Two close losses to Indianapolis and an overtime loss to Jacksonville keep them from owning a 10-4-0 record. The Texans have won four in a row, and they can see a winning record in their future. They must win this game and then beat the Bears at Reliant Stadium next week to clinch their first ever winning season.
Oakland would just like for this season to end. When they lost at home to the Chiefs, the Raider defense seemed to have folded up the tent for the season.
I think Houston could win this game in a blowout, but the Texans are coming off an emotional high after defeating Tennessee. So, I must caution you to be conservative in this one and consider the possibility that Houston could be a little flat this week. They may have a hard time just winning by any amount, so go with them in the teasers.
New York Jets (9-5-0) at Seattle (3-11-0)
Time: 4:05 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Snow, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s
PiRate: Jets by 7
Mean: Jets by 4
Bias: Jets by 7
Vegas: Jets by 4.5, 5, 6
Ov/Un: 44, 44.5
100 Sims: Jets 64 Seattle 36
Avg Sim Score: Jets 32 Seattle 26
Outlier 1a Sim: Jets 48 Seattle 21
Outlier 1b Sim: Seattle 30 Jets 24 ot (largest spread)
Strategy: Seattle +16 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +19 in 13-point teaser, Under 57½ in 13-point teaser
This will be Mike Holmgren’s last home game as coach of the Seahawks, and look who will be the opposing quarterback-the guy who wears the same Super Bowl ring he wears.
The Jets have made three other trips to the West Coast this year. They lost at San Diego 48-29, at Oakland 16-13 in OT, and at San Francisco 24-14. Seattle is no worse than Oakland and split with San Francisco, so they should have a decent chance to win this one.
The Jets control their own destiny. If they win this game and then beat the Dolphins next week, they are the AFC East Champions. If they lose this week, then they will need a New England loss and a win over Miami to get into the playoffs.
Brett Favre usually finds a way to win this type of game. I think the Jets realize they are unlikely to make the playoffs if they lose. However, I don’t expect them to win by double digits. They will be happy to win by a field goal, so I like the home team in the teasers.
Buffalo (6-8-0) at Denver (8-6-0)
Time: 4:05 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s
PiRate: Denver by 1
Mean: Denver by 4
Bias: Denver by 5
Vegas: Denver by 6.5, 7, 7.5
Ov/Un: 43.5, 44
100 Sims: Denver 55 Buffalo 45
Avg Sim Score: Denver 30 Buffalo 27
Outlier 1a Sim: Denver 41 Buffalo 23
Outlier 1b Sim: Buffalo 28 Denver 17
Strategy: Denver +3½ in 10-point teaser, Denver +6½ in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser
Two months ago, the Bills were 4-0 and the darlings of the NFL media world. Coach Dick Jauron was a genius. 10 years go, Mike Shanahan was a genius. Now, those same pundits believe neither coach could properly lead their teams out of paper bags.
The truth of the matter is that both of these teams have glaring holes on the defensive side of the ball, and both of these teams have been hurt by injuries on the attack side.
Trent Edwards will return to the lineup for Buffalo, and the Bills’ offense should rebound with a stellar effort. Buffalo should top 21 points in this game.
Jay Cutler will go over 4,000 total passing yards in this game, as I expect him to top 275 yards against the Bills’ secondary. Denver should top 24 points.
The Broncos will win the AFC West without any help from Tampa Bay this week. Look for the home team to win by five to eight points.
Atlanta (9-5-0) at Minnesota (9-5-0)
Time: 4:15 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: Minnesota by 2
Mean: Minnesota by 4
Bias: Minnesota by 5
Vegas: Minnesota by 3, 3.5
Ov/Un: 43, 43.5, 44, 44.5
100 Sims: Minnesota 52 Atlanta 48
Avg Sim Score: Minnesota 24 Atlanta 24
Outlier 1a Sim: Minnesota 28 Atlanta 16
Outlier 1b Sim: Atlanta 23 Minnesota 13
Strategy: Minnesota +7 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser
This is going to be a great game, and most of the nation will get to see it. The Vikings will clinch the old black and blue division if they win, whereas the Falcons will likely move into the number six position in the playoff field if they win.
Look at Minnesota’s resume since September. The purple people eaters have won eight of their last 10 games. The two losses have come on the road by seven and six points. Gus Frerotte came off the bench to start the turnaround, but Tarvaris Jackson looked like an All-pro last week against Arizona.
Atlanta is a tough team in 2008. They play like the Bears of the 1960’s and 1980’s. Michael Turner should top the 1,500 yard rushing barrier some time during this game, and he should match Adrian Peterson yard for yard, even against the Vikings’ tough run defense.
The difference in this game could be Bernard Berrian. He can take a simple pass reception and turn it into a 40 yard gain. The Falcon secondary will have to play a little more loose to prevent Berrian from breaking a long one. That should give Peterson just enough extra edge to have a five to six yards per carry average. I’ll take the Vikings in a close one in the neighborhood of 24-21.
Carolina (11-3-0) at New York Giants (11-3-0)
Time: 8:15PM EST
TV: NBC
Forecast: Rain, sleet, and snow, moderate wind, temperature falling from the mid 30’s to the mid 20’s
PiRate: Giants by 4
Mean: Giants by 3
Bias: Giants by 1
Vegas: Giants by 3, 3.5
Ov/Un: 37.5, 38, 38.5, 39
100 Sims: Giants 51 Carolina 48 1 Tie (8 OT games)
Avg Sim Score: Carolina 20 Giants 19
Outlier 1a Sim: Carolina 24 Giants 7
Outlier 1b Sim: Giants 21 Carolina 12
Strategy: Carolina +13½ in 10-point teaser, Carolina +16½ in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 13-point teaser
Carolina has its offense in gear, averaging 32.4 points in their last five games. The Giants have played more like the Rams since the Plaxico Burress shooting incident. Now, Brandon Jacobs is hurting, and even though it looks like he will play, don’t expect him to rush for 70 yards Sunday night.
Carolina has been quite fortunate to this point of the season. Their defense has stayed healthy all season with nary a start being missed. That could change this week as defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu could miss this game with a tweaked ankle.
To the winner will more than likely go home field advantage for the playoffs. I believe Carolina will pass the ball a little more than they normally do to set up the running game with their dynamic duo of James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Jake Delhomme should pass for 200 yards, and the Panthers will win by about a field goal to a touchdown.
Green Bay (5-9-0) at Chicago (8-6-0)
Time: 8:30PM EST Monday
TV: ESPN
Forecast: Cloudy, moderate wind, temperature holding steady in the mid teens
PiRate: Chicago by 1
Mean: Chicago by 3
Bias: Chicago by 6
Vegas: Chicago by 4, 4.5
Ov/Un: 41.5, 42
100 Sims: Chicago 89 Green Bay 11
Avg Sim Score: Chicago 29 Green Bay 18
Outlier 1a Sim: Chicago 37 Green Bay 17
Outlier 1b Sim: Green Bay 32 Chicago 27
Strategy: Chicago -4, Chicago -195, Chicago +6 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +9 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser
This is a tough game to analyze due to major intangible factors that won’t be known until Sunday evening. If Minnesota beats Atlanta, then the Bears could be eliminated from the playoffs. They will be eliminated from the NFC North race, and they will have only a tiny chance of gaining a wildcard spot.
Green Bay’s defense has gone south too many times this year, and that’s why the Packers are going to lose more than they win. The offense hasn’t been as powerful since the first game against the Bears, and this game could see a near reversal of that one-but only if the Bears really have something to play for.
Regardless of the outcome in Minneapolis, I see Chicago winning this game by stopping the Green Bay offense and scoring just enough to be comfortably ahead as the fourth quarter starts. Call it a 27-14 win on the Midway, as Kyle Orton passes for 250 yards against Aaron Rodgers’ 200 and a pick or two.
A Bad Week Follow A Good Week
I made a mistake last week when I posted my picks for the week, and it wound up costing me two games. Thus, I finished 1-4 when I should have gone 3-2. Mistakes count, whether here or at a betting window, so I have to live with the consequences. It made me quite upset when I realized it Sunday morning.
For the season, the record against the spread is now 95-79-7, which computes to 54.6%.
I am going with a variety of picks this week, but I am not overly thrilled with the choices. In past years, I have been more excited about the end of the season games than the early part of the schedule. This year, I am finding it harder and harder to identify excellent plays as the season comes to the end.
Here are my wagers for week 17 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):
1. Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 44
2. Pittsburgh Pk vs. Tennessee
3. Philadelphia -4½ vs. Washington
4. Chicago -4 vs. Green Bay
5. Indianapolis -250 vs. Jacksonville
6. Philadelphia -215 vs. Washington
7. New England -335 vs. Arizona
8. Chicago -195 vs. Green Bay
9. 10-point teaser
Indianapolis +4 vs. Jacksonville
Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 34
Baltimore +15 vs. Dallas
10. 10-point teaser
Detroit +17½ vs. New Orleans
Cincinnati & Cleveland Over 23½
Kansas City +14 vs. Miami
11. 10-point teaser
Pittsburgh +10 vs. Tennessee
Philadelphia +5½ vs. Washington
San Diego & Tampa Bay Over 32
12. 10-point teaser
New England +2½ vs. Arizona
New England & Arizona Over 34
Houston +3 vs. Oakland
13. 10-point teaser
Seattle +16 vs. New York Jets
Denver +3½ vs. Buffalo
Minnesota +7 vs. Atlanta
14. 10-point teaser
Carolina +13½ vs. New York Giants
Chicago +6 vs. Green Bay
Chicago & Green Bay Over 31½
15. 13-point teaser
Baltimore +18 vs. Dallas
Kansas City +17 vs. Miami
Pittsburgh +13 vs. Tennessee
Philadelphia +8½ vs. Washington
16. 13-point teaser
San Francisco & St. Louis Under 57
New England +5½ vs. Arizona
New England & Arizona Over 31
Houston +6 vs. Oakland
17. 13-point teaser
Seattle +19 vs. New York Jets
Minnesota +10 vs. Atlanta
Carolina +16½ vs. New York Giants
Chicago +9 vs. Green Bay
AND REMEMBER!!! Do not use these picks for real. I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment. I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either. This is strictly for fun.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 