PiRate Ratings: NFL–Week 8 October 24-28, 2013

Revisiting Our NFL Schedule Change Proposal

Last year in a weekly release, we set forth an idea to remove one week of the preseason schedule and replace it with a 17^th regular season game.

 

The fourth preseason game is virtually meaningless to most NFL teams these days, and the NFL has begun looking at ways to add more games to the regular season, so our idea offers solutions to both problems.

 

Why not add remove week 4 of the preseason and replace it with a 17^th game that will be played on a neutral site.  This would allow for more games in London without adding or moving a franchise to the United Kingdom or taking away a home game from any team.

 

There are cities in this country that could easily put 80,000 or more fans in the stands for a regular season NFL game.  Look at great football towns like Birmingham, Alabama, State College, Pennsylvania, Ann Arbor, Michigan, Columbus, Ohio, Lincoln, Nebraska, and many others.

 

What if the New York Jets played the Cleveland Browns at Penn State’s Beaver Stadium?  The game would sell out quickly and place more than 106,000 fans in the seats.  I dare say the financial reward would far exceed what a week 4 preseason game would net.

 

The key would be to set these neutral site games so that neither team has an advantage.  Thus, the Lions would not play in Ann Arbor; the Bengals would not play in Columbus; the Titans would not play in Knoxville.

 

Until Los Angeles finally gets a team, the Rose Bowl would be an excellent venue for two or three of these Game Number 17’s.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Dallas Cowboys	103.3	105.7	104.3
Washington Redskins	97.1	97.0	96.8
Philadelphia Eagles	95.7	97.0	95.6
New York Giants	93.5	92.7	92.3
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay Packers	107.1	106.6	107.3
Chicago Bears	101.6	100.9	100.7
Detroit Lions	101.2	102.5	101.1
Minnesota Vikings	93.9	92.4	92.6
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	106.2	108.1	106.7
Carolina Panthers	102.3	102.4	102.5
Atlanta Falcons	100.2	99.0	99.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	94.2	93.1	93.5
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	108.7	109.3	109.2
Seattle Seahawks	108.3	108.5	108.5
St. Louis Rams	96.5	97.0	96.1
Arizona Cardinals	96.2	97.9	96.5
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	105.2	102.8	105.2
Miami Dolphins	98.9	98.6	98.9
Buffalo Bills	97.1	96.5	97.7
New York Jets	96.0	93.8	96.4
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	103.3	103.4	103.8
Baltimore Ravens	102.3	101.4	101.8
Pittsburgh Steelers	98.0	96.6	97.4
Cleveland Browns	97.3	97.7	97.2
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	105.3	105.7	105.9
Tennessee Titans	99.7	100.0	100.3
Houston Texans	98.1	97.7	98.6
Jacksonville Jaguars	85.7	84.9	85.2
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.1	110.6	110.4
Kansas City Chiefs	103.2	105.2	103.6
San Diego Chargers	100.5	101.7	101.3
Oakland Raiders	93.3	93.3	93.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona	Atlanta	-1.0	1.9	0.2
Cincinnati	N Y Jets	10.3	12.6	10.4
Denver	Washington	16.0	16.6	16.6
Detroit	Dallas	0.9	-0.2	-0.2
Jacksonville (@ London)	San Francisco	-23.0	-24.4	-24.0
Kansas City	Cleveland	8.9	10.5	9.4
Minnesota	Green Bay	-10.2	-11.2	-11.7
New England	Miami	9.3	7.2	9.3
New Orleans	Buffalo	12.1	14.6	12.0
Oakland	Pittsburgh	-1.2	0.2	-0.6
Philadelphia	N Y Giants	4.2	6.3	5.3
St. Louis	Seattle	-8.8	-8.5	-9.4
Tampa Bay	Carolina	-6.1	-7.3	-7.0
Byes: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego, Tennessee

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

A F C

1. Denver

2. Indianapolis

3. Cincinnati

4. New England

5. Kansas City

6. Pittsburgh

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Green Bay

4. Dallas

5. San Francisco

6. Detroit

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over New England

Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

San Francisco over Dallas

Green Bay over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Kansas City

Indianapolis over Cincinnati

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Conference Championships

Denver over Indianapolis

Green Bay over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Denver

PiRate Picks for October 3-7, 2013

Going With The Flow

We have a nice little thing going and have not even noticed it when making our weekly selections.  Our PiRate Ratings have done quite well against the spread through four NFL weeks, coming in just under 60%.  Our Ratings for college are above the profit line of 52.4%, but there is no way this can be used.

 

So, we looked at the NFL games this week and chose eight contests where the PiRate Ratings differ from the line and where we also believed the PiRate Rating was the better predictive factor of the game.  It is not an exact science, and we really should just pick the entire 14 games as the PiRate Ratings see them, but we are having a little fun trying to raise that 60% to more than 62.5%, or the magical number used to get oneself banned from most books if it is routinely topped.

 

As for college, we have just one strategy doing well so far this season, and that has been the money line parlays.  We will throw three in for you to peruse.

 

1. Money Line Parlay @ -108

U C L A over Utah

Virginia Tech over North Carolina

 

2. Money Line Parlay @ -108

Oklahoma over TCU

Northern Illinois over Kent St.

Georgia over Tennessee

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ -114

Navy over Air Force

Boston College over Army

North Carolina St. over Wake Forest

 

N F L Straight Sides

 4. Tennessee +3 vs. Kansas City

 5. New England +2 vs. Cincinnati

 6. New Orleans Pk. vs. Chicago

 7. Carolina -2 vs. Arizona

 8. San Diego -4 vs. Oakland

 9. Denver -7 vs. Dallas

10. Houston +6 ½ vs. San Francisco

11. NY Jets +10 vs. Atlanta

PiRate Picks For College And Pro Football–December 30, 2011-January 6, 2012

Week 17 in the NFL Can Be Feast or Famine

With a lot of bowls and week 17 in the NFL, this time of year can be tough to prognosticate.  We have no love affairs with any of the coming week’s bowl games.  We cannot form any lovable teasers or money line parlays.

 

We are going with five straight plays, all from the NFL, as our suggestions for the week.

 

1. Oakland -3 vs. San Diego

The Chargers stopped caring about the 2011 season about midway through the second quarter of last week’s game.  Detroit kept playing, while the Bolts’ players began plotting their itineraries home for the winter.

 

This game means a lot to the Raiders.  They are still alive in the playoff hunt, and we believe they have a better chance at getting into the playoffs than any other team they are competing against.  Additionally, they are playing this game for Al.  Al Davis was a Chargers’ assistant when he took over as head coach of the Raiders almost five decades ago.  He made it a habit of beating up on his former team, both as coach and later as owner of the silver and black.  To qualify for the playoffs in this season would be a special gift for their former owner.  Look for Oakland to win big.

 

2. New York Giants -3 vs. Dallas

A couple weeks ago, Tom Coughlin looked like a lame duck coach, and the Cowboys looked like sure winners in the NFC East.  Now, the opposite looks true.  Jason Garrett looks like he has lost control of the team, and Jerry Jones looks to be exerting more control over how they Cowboys will play.  The Giants look playoff ready, and even though they are not world beaters at home, we believe they will enjoy the best home field advantage they have enjoyed in a long time, maybe even like they were playing at old Yankee Stadium once again.

 

We believe the boys from the Gotham will win this game by double digits, much like they did last week against their hometown rival.

 

3. New York Jets +3 vs. Miami

This is our contrarian pick of the week.  Everybody assumes the Jets are done for the year.  They have been 8-7 before and on the outside looking in.  Sure, Miami has looked more like a playoff-caliber team as of late, but the Dolphins have nothing real to play for in this game, and many of their players will already be looking forward to the off-season with no desire to risk injury. 

 

We believe LaDainian Tomlinson has one more big game in his legs.  We believe the Jets’ defense has one heroic effort left to display.  We believe the Jets have one more rabbit to pull out of their hats.  We’ll go with Rex Ryan’s rambunctious roughriders to win this game by a touchdown or more.

 

4. Cleveland +7 vs. Pittsburgh

This is a huge rivalry game, and the Browns know how to play their nemesis from just up the road.  Cleveland stayed within contention on a Thursday night at Heinz field last month, and we believe they are waiting in ambush to send the Steelers to the wildcard round of the playoffs.

 

The crowd will turn out on New Year’s Day to really support their Browns, making the entire field a dog pound.  We believe Cleveland will send them home happy, or at least disappointed following a narrow loss.  We’ll take that touchdown and go with the underdog.

 

5. Baltimore -2 vs. Cincinnati

This is the game of the week, better than the Giants-Cowboys game.  Cincinnati faces elimination with a loss, but they can still back into the playoffs at 9-7.  Baltimore earns a playoff bye with a win, and they have a small shot at the top seed.

 

The Ravens have not fared all that well on the road this year, but we believe they are ready to remedy that ailment this week.  This game will be a surprise sellout thanks to a 2 for 1 ticket giveaway, but we believe Baltimore will spoil the party with a defensive win.

The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Conference Championships

Sunday, January 23, 2011

3:00 PM EST on Fox-TV

Green Bay Packers (12-6-0) at Chicago Bears (12-5-0)

Ratings

Pirate:       Green Bay 113.7           Chicago 104.1

Mean:        Green Bay 111.4           Chicago 103.8

Bias:           Green Bay 109.7          Chicago 104.5

HFA:                                                          Chicago     0.6

 

Vegas:        Green Bay by 3

Totals:       43 ½

 

PiRate:      GB by 9.0

Mean:        GB by 7.0

Bias:           GB by 4.6

 

100 Simulations:         GB 54  Chi 46

Avg. Sim Score              GB 20.2  Chi 17.9

Outlier A:                         GB 27  Chi 0

Outlier B:                         Chi 19  GB 3

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   GB – 4         Chi – 1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und – 3      Ovr – 2

6:30 PM EST on CBS-TV

New York Jets (13-5-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4-0)

 

Ratings

Pirate:       Pittsburgh 107.8         New York 106.1

Mean:        Pittsburgh 108.0        New York 106.8

Bias:           Pittsburgh 109.1         New York 106.7

HFA:          Pittsburgh     3.6

 

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 3 ½

Totals:       38 ½

 

PiRate:       Pit by 5.3

Mean:         Pit by 4.8

Bias:            Pit by 6.0

 

100 Simulations:         Pit 51  NYJ 49

Avg. Sim Score              Pit 24.2  NYJ 23.7

Outlier A:                         Pit 31  NYJ 13

Outlier B:                         NYJ 34  Pit 12

Note:                             Seven games decided in OT, including one that was decided with 2:17 left in the

second overtime

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Pit – 3        NYJ – 2

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Ovr – 4       Und – 1

 

We do not have official picks during the Playoffs, but here is our Unofficial picks for this week:

1. Green Bay & Chicago Under 21 ½ (Halftime Line)

2. Green Bay -3 vs. Chicago

3. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 19 ½ (Halftime Line)

4. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 38 ½

5. 10-point Teaser Parlay

1 Green Bay & Chicago OVER 33 ½

2 Green Bay +7 Chicago

3 Pittsburgh & New York Jets OVER 28 ½

The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Divisional Round

NFL Playoffs—Divisional Round

Saturday, January 15, 2011 

4:30 PM EST on CBS-TV

Baltimore Ravens (13-4-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4-0)

 

Vegas:        Pit by 3

Totals:       37 

PiRate:       Pit by 1.4

Mean:         Pit by 3.8

Bias:           Pit by 4.7 

100 Simulations:         Pit 57  Bal 43

Avg. Sim Score             Pit 19.3  Bal 16.7

Outlier A:                     Pit 31  Bal 7

Outlier B:                     Bal 24  Pit 6

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Pit 4  Bal 1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Ovr-3         Und—2

 

8:00 PM EST on Fox-TV

Green Bay Packers (11-6-0) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3-0) 

Vegas:        Atl by 2

Totals:       45 ½

 

PiRate:       GB by 2.2

Mean:         GB by 0.2

Bias:           GB by 0.7 

100 Simulations:         GB 61  Atl 39

Avg. Sim Score             GB 27.2  Atl 20.3

Outlier A:                     GB 33  Atl 14

Outlier B:                     Atl 30  GB 13 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   GB—4                    Atl—1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und—3       Ovr—2       

 

Sunday, January 16, 2011

 

1:00 PM EST on Fox-TV

Seattle Seahawks (8-9-0) at Chicago Bears (11-5-0) 

Vegas:        Chi by 10

Totals:       40 

PiRate:       Chi by 11.3

Mean:         Chi by 11.7

Bias:           Chi by 9.0 

100 Simulations:         Chi 91  Sea 9

Avg. Sim Score             Chi 26.6  Sea 11.8

Outlier A:                     Chi 38  Sea 0

Outlier B:                     Sea 17  Chi 12

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Chi—4        Sea—1       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und—3       Ovr—2       

 

4:30 PM EST on CBS-TV

New York Jets (12-5-0) at New England Patriots (14-2-0) 

Vegas:        NE by 8 ½

Totals:       45 ½  

PiRate:       NE by 14.8

Mean:         NE by 11.1

Bias:           NE by 2.2 

100 Simulations:         NE 82  NYJ 18

Avg. Sim Score             NE 26.7  NYJ 16.6

Outlier A:                     NE 34  NYJ 10

Outlier B:                     NYJ 24  NE 16 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   NE—3          NYJ—2       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und—4       Ovr—1       

 

We do not have official picks during the Playoffs, but here is our Unofficial–Recommended 13-point Teaser Parlays   

Parlay-1

Green Bay & Atlanta OVER 32 ½

Chicago & Seattle UNDER 53

Pittsburgh & Baltimore OVER 24

New England & New York Jets UNDER 58 ½

 

Parlay-2

Green Bay +15 vs. Atlanta

Chicago +3 vs. Seattle

Pittsburgh +10 vs. Baltimore

New England +4 ½ vs. New York Jets

The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Wildcard Round

For each playoff game, we show the PiRate, Mean, and Biased rating spreads.  Then, we reveal the results of the 100 simulations.  And, just for you, we will reveal the vote of the five of us in picking each game against the spread as well as the total.

We have access to a computer simulator that allows us to rapidly simulate games 100 times.  We can simulate games based on certain statistical data, strength of schedule, and linear regression. 

Saturday, January 8, 2011

 4:30 PM EST on NBC-TV

New Orleans Saints  (11-5-0)  at Seattle Seahawks (7-9-0)

Vegas:        NO by 10 ½

Totals:       44 ½

PiRate:       NO by 9.3

Mean:         NO by 6.5

Bias:           NO by 4.9

100 Simulations:         NO 84  SEA 16

Avg. Sim Score             NO 32.7  SEA 16.8

Outlier A:                     NO 41  SEA 14

Outlier B:                     SEA 24  NO 19 (three others of 5 pts.)

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   SEA—3        NO—2

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    UND—4       OVR—1

 

8:00 PM EST on NBC-TV

New York Jets (11-5-0) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6-0) 

Vegas:        IND by 2 ½

Totals:       44 ½

 

PiRate:       IND by 0.6

Mean:         IND by 0.7

Bias:           IND by 0.3 

100 Simulations:         NYJ 57  IND 43

Avg. Sim Score             NYJ 22.8  IND 20.1

Outlier A:                     NYJ 27  IND 7

Outlier B:                     IND 30  NYJ 13

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   NYJ—3        IND—2

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    OVR—3       UND—2      

 

Sunday, January 9, 2011

1:00 PM EST on CBS-TV

Baltimore Ravens (12-4-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)

Vegas:        BAL by 2 ½

Totals:       41 

PiRate:       BAL by 2.3

Mean:         BAL by 2.6

Bias:           KC by 0.2 

100 Simulations:         BAL 52  KC 48

Avg. Sim Score             BAL 21.8  KC 20.7

Outlier A:                     BAL 35  KC 13

Outlier B:                     KC 27  BAL 10

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   KC—4           BAL—1       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    OVR—3       UND—2      

 

 4:30 PM EST on FOX-TV

Green Bay Packers (10-6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6-0)

Vegas:        PHI by 2 ½

Totals:       46 ½  

PiRate:       GB by 3.5

Mean:         GB by 4.6

Bias:           GB by 1.1 

100 Simulations:         GB 67  PHI 33

Avg. Sim Score             GB 34.1  PHI 26.7

Outlier A:                     GB 41  PHI 16

Outlier B:                     PHI 33  GB 14

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   GB—5            PHI—0       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    OVR—4       UND—1      

 

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 17–January 2, 2011

Did You Enjoy Your Christmas Gift?

Last week as our Christmas gift to you, we gave all our readers a free 13-point teaser parlay for you to play.  It was a winner!  Let’s take a look at it once again.

 

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

Thanks to an excellent QB draw by David Garrard, the Jaguars force overtime with Washington and lost on a field goal, which was okay for this parlay.  Oakland scored a late TD to prevent the Colts from threatening to ruin the parlay at the end of the day.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore were never in doubt.  Did you use this and win?

 

NFL Playoff Possibilities

NFC

East

Philadelphia

Clinched the division and will be the number three seed no matter what happens this week

 

New York Giants

Can get in as a Wildcard two ways

1. A win over Washington and Green Bay loses or ties

2. A tie with Washington and a both a Green Bay loss and Tampa Bay loss or tie

 

North

Chicago

Clinched the division and has earned a first round bye regardless of what happens this week

They can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win plus an Atlanta loss and a New Orleans loss or tie

 

Green Bay 

Can earn a Wildcard spot three different ways

1. A win over the Bears automatically gives them a Wildcard

2. If they lose to the Bears, they still qualify if both the Giants and Tampa Bay also lose

3. If they tie the Bears, they qualify as a Wildcard if both the Giants and Tampa Bay lose or tie

 

South

Atlanta

Has not clinched the division, but a win or tie over Carolina clinches it 

They also would clinch with a New Orleans loss or tie 

If they win the division, they will also clinch a first-round bye. 

Can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs if they win or tie or if Chicago and New Orleans both lose or tie

 

New Orleans

Has clinched a playoff spot 

If the Saints win and Atlanta loses, they would become division champions and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs

 

Tampa Bay

Can still earn a Wildcard spot with a win over the Saints plus a Green Bay loss or tie and a Giants loss or tie

 

West

The winner of the St. Louis—Seattle game will clinch the division and earn the number four seed 

If they tie, the Rams win the division

 

AFC

East

New England

Has already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs

 

New York Jets

Have clinched a Wildcard spot.

 

North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore have already clinched playoff spots

 

Pittsburgh

Can clinch the division and earn the other first-round bye three different ways

1. A win over Cleveland

2. A tie with Cleveland coupled with a loss or tie by Baltimore

3. A loss to Cleveland, coupled with a loss by Baltimore

 

Pittsburgh can be a #2 seed with a win, but they could fall all the way to #6 if they lose and both Baltimore and the Jets win.

 

Baltimore 

Can clinch the division and earn a first-round bye two ways

1. A win over Cincinnati coupled by a Pittsburgh loss or tie

2. A tie with Cincinnati and a Pittsburgh loss.

 

South

This division has not yet been decided 

The division winner will play in the opening week in the Wildcard Playoff round

 

Indianapolis

Clinches the division with a win or tie or a Jacksonville loss or tie 

 

The Colts would be the number three seed if they win and Kansas City loses and the number four seed if they win the division and Kansas City wins or ties

 

Jacksonville

Can clinch the division with a win over Houston and  Indianapolis loss to Tennessee 

The Jaguars would be the number four seed.

 

West

Kansas City

Has already clinched the division title and will play in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs 

If they win or tie or if Indianapolis loses or ties, the Chiefs would be the third seed 

If they lose and Indianapolis wins, the Chiefs will be the fourth seed

 

 Here is our projected Playoff bracket

NFC

#6 Green Bay at #3 Philadelphia

#5 New Orleans at #4 St. Louis

 

#2 Chicago hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

#1 Atlanta hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

AFC

#6 Pittsburgh at #3 Kansas City

#5 New York Jets at #4 Indianapolis

 

#2 Baltimore hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

#1 New England hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
Listed By PiRate Rating
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia	10	–	5	–	0	426	363	105.9	104.0	104.7
NY Giants	9	–	6	–	0	377	333	103.6	102.5	102.2
Dallas	5	–	10	–	0	380	423	97.9	98.4	96.6
Washington	6	–	9	–	0	288	360	94.3	97.0	97.4
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	9	–	6	–	0	378	237	111.2	109.2	106.8
Chicago	11	–	4	–	0	331	276	103.9	104.4	105.0
Detroit	5	–	10	–	0	342	356	98.4	100.5	100.1
Minnesota	6	–	9	–	0	268	328	97.4	98.1	99.4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	11	–	4	–	0	371	284	107.0	105.3	107.0
Atlanta	12	–	3	–	0	383	278	106.6	105.7	105.8
Tampa Bay	9	–	6	–	0	318	305	100.0	100.2	101.0
Carolina	2	–	13	–	0	186	377	90.2	88.4	88.3
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	10	–	0	267	339	96.2	94.5	96.7
St. Louis	7	–	8	–	0	283	312	95.6	94.9	99.0
Seattle	6	–	9	–	0	294	401	92.0	91.6	94.1
Arizona	5	–	10	–	0	282	396	89.0	91.4	91.0
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	13	–	2	–	0	480	306	115.3	113.2	112.0
NY Jets	10	–	5	–	0	329	297	102.7	102.9	103.9
Miami	7	–	8	–	0	266	295	99.1	99.2	98.2
Buffalo	4	–	11	–	0	276	387	95.8	96.3	95.8
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	11	–	4	–	0	344	263	107.0	106.2	106.0
Pittsburgh	11	–	4	–	0	334	223	105.5	105.7	106.2
Cleveland	5	–	10	–	0	262	291	99.3	98.2	94.4
Cincinnati	4	–	11	–	0	315	382	97.9	97.9	95.3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	9	–	6	–	0	412	368	102.2	102.5	103.1
Jacksonville	8	–	7	–	0	336	385	98.7	97.7	98.4
Houston	5	–	10	–	0	356	410	98.0	97.7	96.5
Tennessee	6	–	9	–	0	336	316	93.9	98.3	95.8
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	8	–	7	–	0	408	294	104.3	105.0	102.2
Kansas City	10	–	5	–	0	356	295	100.9	101.8	102.7
Oakland	7	–	8	–	0	379	361	98.9	99.0	100.5
Denver	4	–	11	–	0	316	438	91.7	92.3	94.1

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS
Ratings Do Not Reflect Resting of Regulars by Teams That Have Nothing to Play for
Week 17: January 2, 2011
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EST Wednesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
KANSAS CITY	Oakland	6.0	6.8	6.2	3 1/2	43 ½
NEW ENGLAND	Miami	19.2	17.0	16.8	3	43
INDIANAPOLIS	Tennessee	11.3	7.2	10.3	9 1/2	48
Jacksonville	HOUSTON	2.7	2.0	3.9	2 1/2	49 ½
Pittsburgh	CLEVELAND	2.2	3.5	7.8	6	37
BALTIMORE	Cincinnati	12.1	11.3	13.7	9 1/2	43
DETROIT	Minnesota	5.0	6.4	4.7	NL	NL
WASHINGTON	New York Giants	6.3	2.5	1.8	4	44 ½
GREEN BAY	Chicago	10.3	7.8	4.8	NL	NL
PHILADELPHIA	Dallas	10.0	7.6	10.1	NL	NL
NEW YORK JETS	Buffalo	9.9	9.6	11.1	3	35 ½
ATLANTA	Carolina	19.4	20.3	20.5	14 1/2	41
NEW ORLEANS	Tampa Bay	9.0	7.1	8.0	7 1/2	47
SEATTLE	St. Louis	0.4	0.7	-0.9	3	41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Arizona	11.2	7.1	9.7	6	38 ½
San Diego	DENVER	8.6	8.7	4.1	3 1/2	47

 

Note to our subscription clients:  We will not issue an “official” pick for this week’s games because we do not like any of the possible parlays; too many teams have nothing to play for, but at the same time, this does not mean they will not use their regulars for four quarters.

 

 We will only issue three unofficial picks.  We advise you to take everything off the table unless you want to speculate with profits.

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 14–December 9-13, 2010

PiRate Picks Against The Spread For Last Week

We had to wait a day to post our results of last week’s picks against the spread because we wanted to go with the Patriots on Monday Night Football.  Thanks to that game completing a successful parlay, our picks finished 2-1 for the week.

 

Before we review our picks, let us take this brief moment to send an advanced warning to our subscribers.  We will only make one selection this week, but this is not to infer that we consider it an iron-clad lock of the year.  With the college season over except for the Army-Navy game (which we will lay off), it leaves just NFL games until the start of the bowls.  We have five or six games we like, but we can only make one, 13-point teaser parlay.  Consider this game like all others we give to you—on equal footing. 

 

Okay, let us now review our three selections from last week.

 

1. 13-point Teaser Parlay

Minnesota +7 ½ vs. Buffalo, Cleveland +18 ½ vs. Miami, Tennessee +9 ½ vs. Jacksonville, and Denver +20 ½ vs. Kansas City

Loss

The Tennessee Titans, and their lack of offense, did us in on this parlay.  We liked all four underdogs covering against these big numbers, but the Titans lost by 11 after extending their streak of not scoring an offensive touchdown for almost 3 ½ games.

 

2. 13-point Teaser Parlay

New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Washington, Chicago +8 vs. Detroit, Green Bay +4 ½ vs. San Francisco, New Orleans +6 ½ vs. Cincinnati

WON

This is more of the same.  We went with four favorites by small amounts and moved the spread so that they were now all underdogs.

 

3. 13-point Teaser Parlay

Oakland +26 vs. San Diego, St. Louis +10 vs. Arizona, Baltimore +16 vs. Pittsburgh, and New England +9 ½ vs. New York Jets

WON

We figured San Diego could not win by more than three touchdowns, so we took the Raiders, not expecting them to pull off the upset.  We felt as if Arizona would have a tough time beating Carolina or Detroit by 10, so it was safe taking the Rams at that number.  We believed the Steelers would score less than 17 points, so we loved the Ravens in this pick.  And, we held on until Monday night so we could take the Patriots at home as almost double-digit ‘dogs. 

 

 

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia	8	–	4	–	0	344	281	106.9	104.9	105.6
NY Giants	8	–	4	–	0	308	247	105.9	103.7	105.2
Dallas	4	–	8	–	0	294	336	99.1	99.5	100.0
Washington	5	–	7	–	0	222	293	93.7	96.5	95.3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	4	–	0	303	182	110.2	108.5	106.4
Chicago	9	–	3	–	0	246	192	103.4	104.1	104.2
Minnesota	5	–	7	–	0	227	253	98.5	99.4	99.3
Detroit	2	–	10	–	0	278	306	94.9	97.0	92.7
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	10	–	2	–	0	304	233	106.1	105.1	106.7
New Orleans	9	–	3	–	0	299	227	105.6	103.3	105.7
Tampa Bay	7	–	5	–	0	243	251	99.3	100.1	101.4
Carolina	1	–	11	–	0	154	307	91.1	88.6	89.0
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
St. Louis	6	–	6	–	0	232	237	97.2	97.2	97.4
San Francisco	4	–	8	–	0	203	259	96.9	95.3	95.1
Seattle	6	–	6	–	0	240	289	95.5	95.4	96.7
Arizona	3	–	9	–	0	200	338	86.0	89.1	89.9
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	10	–	2	–	0	379	269	111.3	108.6	110.9
NY Jets	9	–	3	–	0	267	232	102.8	102.7	104.4
Miami	6	–	6	–	0	215	238	100.0	100.3	99.1
Buffalo	2	–	10	–	0	243	333	96.3	96.0	95.1
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	9	–	3	–	0	267	191	106.2	105.6	107.4
Baltimore	8	–	4	–	0	260	201	106.2	104.8	106.1
Cleveland	5	–	7	–	0	229	239	100.9	99.7	101.6
Cincinnati	2	–	10	–	0	255	322	95.2	95.6	92.4
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	6	–	6	–	0	317	290	100.6	101.3	100.1
Houston	5	–	7	–	0	288	321	100.3	99.3	99.0
Jacksonville	7	–	5	–	0	257	300	99.3	99.4	101.2
Tennessee	5	–	7	–	0	263	235	94.0	99.1	96.5
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	6	–	6	–	0	323	353	103.7	103.5	101.1
Kansas City	8	–	4	–	0	295	237	99.7	101.8	101.2
Oakland	6	–	6	–	0	283	269	99.5	99.1	100.0
Denver	3	–	9	–	0	256	333	94.1	95.1	93.3

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 14: December 9-13, 2010
Vegas Line as of 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Indianapolis	TENNESSEE	3.6	-0.8	-0.6	3	46 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	Oakland	2.8	3.3	4.2	4 1/2	43
PITTSBURGH	Cincinnati	15.0	14.0	19.0	9	39 1/2
New England	CHICAGO	4.9	1.5	3.7	3	41
Cleveland	BUFFALO	2.6	1.7	4.5	-1 1/2	40
New York Giants	MINNESOTA	4.4	1.3	2.9	2 1/2	44
Green Bay	DETROIT	11.3	7.5	9.7	6 1/2	47 1/2
Atlanta	CAROLINA	12.0	13.5	14.7	7 1/2	42
Tampa Bay	WASHINGTON	2.6	0.6	3.1	2	41
NEW ORLEANS	St. Louis	11.4	9.1	11.3	9	47
SAN FRANCISCO	Seattle	5.4	3.9	2.4	4 1/2	41
NEW YORK JETS	Miami	6.8	6.4	9.3	5 1/2	41
Denver	ARIZONA	5.1	3.0	0.4	4	43
SAN DIEGO	Kansas City	8.0	5.7	3.9	7	46 1/2
Philadelphia	DALLAS	4.8	2.4	2.6	3 1/2	50 1/2
Baltimore	HOUSTON	2.9	2.5	4.1	3	45 1/2

 

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

NFC East

When the New York Giants bring their A-game, they are the best team in the NFC.  When they don’t, they are not playoff worthy.

 

The Eagles have continued to play at an even keel for most of the season.  We believe Philadelphia will edge the Giants for the Division title, while the Giants have to sweat it out in week 17 to see if they qualify for a Wildcard berth. 

 

Division Winner: Philadelphia

Wildcard: None

 

NFC North

The Chicago Bears have come on strong as the weather turned cold.  They have a tough closing schedule, and we believe they will fall a couple of times.

 

Green Bay has been the most consistent NFC team from week one to week 13.  We believe the Packers will catch and pass the Bears in the final five games.

 

Minnesota has virtually no chance of getting into the playoffs, even if they run the table to finish 9-7.  However, they could be a big spoiler.

 

Division Winner: Green Bay

Wildcard: Chicago

 

NFC South

Atlanta is in the cat-bird seat.  The Falcons host New Orleans, and they own a three-point overtime win over the Saints at the Superdome.  They have two games remaining with Carolina and a visit to Seattle.  They could run the table, but at the worst, they should finish 13-3 and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

 

The New Orleans offense is beginning to pick up the pace.  The Saints have scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games.  Their final three games are tough, having to play at Baltimore, at Atlanta, and hosting Tampa Bay.  We cannot see them running the table.

 

Tampa Bay is still alive, but we believe the Buccaneers will finish no better than 9-7.  11-5 could be the necessary record to qualify as a wildcard this year.

 

Division Winner: Atlanta

Wildcard: New Orleans

 

NFC West

8-8 could very well be all that is needed to win this division.  On the other hand, we could see two teams finishing 8-8.  St. Louis and Seattle remained tied at 6-6.  The Seahawks have a tougher final four games.  They host Atlanta and St. Louis, and they play at San Francisco and Tampa Bay.  They may be eliminated by the time the Rams come to Seattle in the final week.

 

Division Winner: St. Louis

Wildcard: None

 

AFC East

New England probably secured home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with their six-touchdown win over the Jets last night.  The Patriots are ripe for an upset loss this weekend at Chicago, but we believe they have a better than 50% chance of winning.  They host the Packers the following week, and then close at Buffalo and at home against Miami.  They could run the table, but they will win at least 13 games.

 

The Jets have had trouble scoring against the playoff caliber defenses.  They still must play at Pittsburgh and at Chicago, and we believe they could lose both games.  Home games with Buffalo and Miami should allow the Jets to hang on for a playoff spot.

 

Division Winner: New England

Wildcard: New York Jets

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh holds a one game lead over Baltimore.  Both teams’ defenses are getting ready for that final drive to the finish.  Baltimore has given up 36 points in their last three games, while Pittsburgh has yielded just 29.  Both teams could run the table, but we believe Cleveland could upset Pittsburgh in a meaningless finale for the Steelers, while Baltimore could meet the same fate the week before.

 

Division Winner: Pittsburgh

Wildcard: Baltimore

 

AFC South

This division fell to pieces in a hurry.  It is now a little weaker than the AFC West.  Houston and Tennessee are headed to losing records, so it leaves Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the league crown.  Jacksonville leads by a game, but the two teams must square off again at Indy in two weeks.  This week’s contests could decide whether that game will be for all the marbles.  The Colts play at Tennessee Thursday night, while Jacksonville hosts Oakland.  Both should win those games, so a Colt win the following week could produce a tie at 8-6.  The last two games favor the Jaguars, as they host Washington and close at Houston.  Indianapolis must play at Oakland, and host Tennessee.

 

Division Winner: Jacksonville

Wildcard: None

 

AFC West

This just may be the most interesting race of all.  Kansas City leads Oakland and San Diego by two games.  The Chiefs must play at San Diego this week and then follow that up with a trip across the state to St. Louis.  It would not surprise us if they were 8-6 after week 15.  They close with Tennessee and Oakland at home.

 

San Diego’s season is done if they lost to Kansas City this week.  If they get past the Chiefs, they have a great chance to win out with games against San Francisco at home and Cincinnati and Denver on the road.  They have to run the table because they are currently 1-3 in the division and have already been swept by Oakland.

 

Oakland is still in this race at 6-6.  They swept the Chargers and hold a win over Kansas City.  Even if they lose at Jacksonville this week, wins over Denver and Indianapolis at home could make the finale at Kansas City for all the marbles.

 

Denver, with a new coach, could be a big spoiler.  The Broncos get both San Diego and Oakland.  They did split with Kansas City.

 

Division Winner: Kansas City

Wildcard: None

 

Projected Playoff Seedings

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. St. Louis

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Kansas City

4. Jacksonville

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore

 

Projected Playoffs

Wildcard Round

Chicago over Philadelphia

New Orleans over St. Louis

Baltimore over Kansas City

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Round

Atlanta over Chicago

Green Bay over New Orleans

New England over Baltimore

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over Atlanta

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over New England