PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 7–October 24-25, 2010

A PiRate Look at the Playoff Chase

Parity, shmarity!  12 and only 12 teams will make the playoffs, and 20 teams will not regardless of how close the 32 teams might be in talent.  How do we look for the playoff teams? 

We wish we could tell you we have a great formula like we have for picking the NCAA Basketball Tournament.  If you want to read about that, click on the College Basketball link on the right side of the page and read up on how successful our tournament formula has been in the past. 

The only tell-tale sign in back-testing that is worth a grain of salt is scoring margin.  Teams with scoring margins over 10 points per game have historically dominated in the playoffs.  At this point of the season, it is too early to use scoring margin due to a small sampling of games.  After 16 games, the strengths of schedule differ much less, but after six games, the margin is too much.

 

Let’s try to look at the divisions strictly by how well the teams appear to be playing. 

NFC East

 

Dallas can forget hosting the Super Bowl.  They won’t make the playoffs this season.  The Giants and Eagles have yet to play each other, but we feel like Philadelphia is a little better at this point and believe the Eagles will soar above the rest in the East.  New York will stay in the playoff race.  Washington looks like an 8-8 team. 

NFC North

 

Green Bay’s injury problems have left this division race open for three teams.  Minnesota should begin to play better offensively as Randy Moss gets more and more acclimated to his old digs.  Chicago appears to be lacking the offensive line strength to win 10 games.  The Bears could be 9-7 or 8-8, and we think 9-7 will not be enough to qualify as a Wildcard.  As for the Packers, it is going to be tough relying strictly on the passing game when the weather turns frigid.  We think Minnesota will win the North with a 10-6 record. 

NFC South

 

As soon as Tampa Bay proves to be unworthy of playoff mention, this will become a two-team race between Atlanta and New Orleans.  They could finish in a tie, with the tiebreaker loser gaining a Wildcard spot.  We think both could finish 11-5. 

NFC West

 

It has never happened before, but there is a chance it could happen this year.  No division winner has ever been 8-8 or worse, but it could happen in this division.  Arizona and San Francisco have little on offense, while Seattle and St. Louis have so much young and inconsistent talent.  If we had to pick one team to go 9-7, it would be Pete Carroll’s Seahawks. 

AFC East

 

With Buffalo primed to go 2-14 or worse and probably go 0-6 in division play, it allows the other three teams to clean up in the standings.  The Jets look like the class of the league at this point of the season, but they are not dominant yet.  New England is solid, while Miami has enough talent to stay in the playoff picture.  We will call for the Jets to win the division at 12-4 or 13-3 with the Patriots in the Wildcard picture at 11-5 or 12-4.  As for Miami, the Dolphins will stay in the hunt for most of the season before settling in at 9-7. 

AFC North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore are as strong collectively as the Jets and Patriots.  We feel strongly that both teams will make the playoffs with records in the 12-4 range.  Cincinnati is going to struggle to finish at 8-8, while Cleveland will lose double digit games again. 

AFC South

 

With the East and North both having two very good teams, there won’t be room for a Wildcard in this division.  Three teams sit tied at 4-2.  Houston’s defense will cost them a game or two down the stretch.  Tennessee and Indianapolis should decide this division in their head-to-head matchups.  We will go with the great Peyton Manning to pull off two close wins and give the Colts another division title at 11-5.  Jacksonville will more than likely be shopping for a new coach.  They should be shopping for a new city.  The Los Angeles Jaguars has a nice ring to it. 

AFC West

 

San Diego cannot win on the road, and the last time we checked, they have eight road games.  Denver has not started on fire this year and will not be 6-2 at the halfway point before they collapse in the second half.  Oakland is still a dozen quality players short, while Kansas City has shown just enough to lead this division.  We think the Chiefs could pull this off at 9-7. 

Our playoff Soothsayer sees this scenario:

 

NFC

1. Philadelphia

2. New Orleans

3. Minnesota

4. Seattle

W. Atlanta 

W. New York Giants 

AFC

1. New York Jets

2. Pittsburgh

3. Indianapolis

4. Kansas City

W. New England 

W. Baltimore 

 

Wildcard Round

New York Giants at Minnesota

Atlanta at Seattle 

Baltimore at Indianapolis

New England at Kansas City 

Divisional Round

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia

Seattle at New Orleans 

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

New England at New York Jets

 

Conference Championship

New Orleans at Philadelphia

 

Pittsburgh at New York Jets 

SUPER BOWL

 

Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh 

Winner: The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

 

This Week’s PiRate Passer Ratings 

Player	Team	Comp%	Int %	AYPA	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	61.5	0.00	6.7	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	67.3	0.79	6.9	115.7
Kyle Orton	DEN	62.8	1.21	6.7	110.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	62.3	2.27	7	103.2
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	55.4	1.13	5.1	102.6
Kevin Kolb	PHI	67.6	1.90	5.8	99.7
Jay Cutler	CHI	60.3	2.13	5.7	97.2
Vince Young	TEN	61.4	1.98	5.4	96.8
Seneca Wallace	CLE	63.0	2.00	5.4	96.6
Josh Freeman	TB	59.1	1.89	5.1	96.0
Matt Ryan	ATL	60.3	1.83	5	95.9
Tom Brady	NE	67.5	2.41	5.6	94.2
Donovan McNabb	WAS	58.1	2.33	5.4	93.8
Matt Schaub	HOU	64.5	2.54	5.7	93.6
Drew Brees	NO	70.6	2.60	5.7	93.1
Matt Cassel	KC	57.8	2.22	4.9	91.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	61.2	2.35	4.9	90.7
Chad Henne	MIA	63.2	2.92	5.1	86.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	60.5	2.93	5.1	86.8
Tony Romo	DAL	69.4	3.40	5.7	86.0
Carson Palmer	CIN	59.3	3.09	4.8	83.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	64.2	3.48	5.3	83.0
Shaun Hill	DET	61.1	3.37	4.4	79.0
Eli Manning	NYG	64.7	3.92	4.9	76.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	61.4	3.61	4.2	75.7
Sam Bradford	STL	56.8	3.42	3.6	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	52.0	3.92	4.3	73.6
Alex Smith	SF	60.1	4.04	4.1	71.4
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	47.3	3.30	2.6	69.5
Brett Favre	MIN	58.7	4.67	3.5	62.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	51.8	4.39	2.8	61.1
Jason Campbell	OAK	56.0	4.40	2.6	59.9
David Garrard	JAX	65.6	5.47	3.2	53.8
Charlie Batch	PIT	59.2	6.12	3.7	50.8
Trent Edwards	JAX	56.6	5.26	1.4	45.5
Jake Delhomme	CLE	55.0	6.67	2.2	37.7
Matt Moore	CAR	42.4	10.17	0.2	-4.4

 

The PiRate Passer Formula is: ((7* AYPA) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8

 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Passing Yards minus Yards After Catch. 

This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Philadelphia Eagles	105.0	103.2	104.9	4-2-0	28.2	20.0
Dallas Cowboys	103.1	101.1	99.9	1-4-0	20.4	22.2
New York Giants	102.8	102.9	103.2	4-2-0	22.3	19.7
Washington Redskins	98.6	100.1	98.2	3-3-0	18.8	19.8
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota Vikings	103.1	102.0	100.7	2-3-0	17.4	17.6
Green Bay Packers	102.4	102.6	100.7	3-3-0	23.2	18.7
Chicago Bears	98.9	100.1	99.5	4-2-0	18.7	16.2
Detroit Lions	96.5	98.6	93.9	1-5-0	24.3	23.3
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	104.6	102.4	104.1	4-2-0	21.7	18.0
Atlanta Falcons	103.6	103.6	102.3	4-2-0	21.7	16.8
Carolina Panthers	97.1	92.2	89.8	0-5-0	10.4	22.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	92.6	95.4	96.7	3-2-0	16.0	22.2
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle Seahawks	97.4	97.3	98.6	3-2-0	19.6	19.4
San Francisco 49ers	97.1	95.6	95.8	1-5-0	16.3	23.2
St. Louis Rams	94.6	95.2	97.1	3-3-0	17.2	18.8
Arizona Cardinals	94.0	96.9	97.3	3-2-0	17.6	27.6
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New York Jets	110.4	108.1	109.4	5-1-0	26.5	16.8
New England Patriots	106.4	106.1	107.0	4-1-0	30.8	23.2
Miami Dolphins	101.4	99.4	101.7	3-2-0	17.8	22.4
Buffalo Bills	91.6	90.5	88.9	0-5-0	17.4	32.6
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	106.5	106.0	107.6	4-2-0	18.7	15.8
Pittsburgh Steelers	105.4	107.9	106.6	4-1-0	22.8	12.0
Cincinnati Bengals	100.5	99.0	99.0	2-3-0	20.0	20.4
Cleveland Browns	95.2	95.8	94.9	1-5-0	14.7	20.8
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis Colts	105.1	105.5	105.4	4-2-0	27.2	20.8
Tennessee Titans	103.2	107.0	105.3	4-2-0	27.0	16.3
Houston Texans	100.3	98.7	102.5	4-2-0	25.5	27.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	92.5	93.9	97.6	3-3-0	18.3	27.8
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	99.9	99.6	100.2	2-4-0	26.2	21.0
Kansas City Chiefs	99.6	99.6	100.7	3-2-0	21.6	18.4
Denver Broncos	97.6	99.6	97.3	2-4-0	20.7	23.3
Oakland Raiders	93.4	94.1	93.0	2-4-0	20.0	25.2

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 7: October 24-25, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Pittsburgh	MIAMI	2.0	6.5	2.9	3	40 ½
ATLANTA	Cincinnati	6.1	7.6	6.3	3 1/2	43
KANSAS CITY	Jacksonville	10.1	8.7	6.1	4 1/2	43
TENNESSEE	Philadelphia	1.2	6.8	3.4	3	44
CHICAGO	Washington	3.3	3.0	4.3	3	40
NEW ORLEANS	Cleveland	12.4	9.6	6.2	13	43
BALTIMORE	Buffalo	17.9	18.5	21.7	13	38
CAROLINA	San Francisco	2.0	-1.4	-4.0	-3	35
TAMPA BAY	St. Louis	0.0	2.2	1.6	3	38 ½
SEATTLE	Arizona	5.4	2.4	3.3	5 1/2	40 ½
New England	SAN DIEGO	2.5	2.5	2.8	-3	47
DENVER	Oakland	7.2	8.5	7.3	7	42 ½
GREEN BAY	Minnesota	2.3	2.6	3.0	2 1/2	44 ½
DALLAS	New York Giants	2.3	0.2	-1.3	3 1/2	44 ½



PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 6–October 17-18, 2010

Parity USA

 

For the first time since 1970, no NFL team won its first four games.  Let’s take a brief look at that season 40 years ago. 

 

It was the first season that the old AFL and the NFL were fully merged.  Baltimore (then the Colts), Pittsburgh, and Cleveland joined the new AFC, leaving 13 teams in each conference.

 

The divisional races were exciting with many unexpected turns.  In the AFC Central, the Cincinnati Bengals began the year losing six of their first seven games.  It appeared that Coach Paul Brown had lost the touch that had made him so successful with Cleveland.  The Bengals were in last place, three games behind their older in-state rival and given up for dead.  Just when it appeared like they would be in the hunt for the first pick in the next NFL Draft, a pick that would most assuredly be Jim Plunkett, the Bengals’ defense caught fire.  After giving up more than 25 points per game in the first half of the season, they gave up just 11 in the second half.  Seven consecutive wins later, Cincinnati had passed Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland to win the AFC Central with an 8-6-0 record.

 

In the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders came down to Earth after a three-year run which saw go 37-4-1.  Quarterback Daryle Lamonica was beginning to show signs of aging, so what did Coach John Madden do?  He inserted an even older quarterback into the lineup.  George Blanda won five comeback five games with his passing and kicking to propel Oakland from a 3-2-2 start to an 8-4-2 finish, passing Denver and Kansas City in the standings.

 

In the AFC East, John Unitas was beginning to show his age, but he had enough left in the tank to combine with a really good Colts’ defense to lead Baltimore to the best record in the conference.  Upstart Miami, with first year coach Don Shula enjoyed its first winning season, finishing 10-4 and earning the wildcard.

 

The NFC had its share of wild races.  In the East, the St. Louis Cardinals looked unbeatable when they shut out the Dallas Cowboys 38-0 on Monday Night Football.  The blowout moved the Cardinals to 7-2 and dropped the Cowboys to 5-4, a game behind the New York Giants at 6-3. 

 

The Giants led a host of teams vying for the wildcard berth.  Los Angeles stood one half game back at 5-3-1, while Detroit and Green Bay joined Dallas at 5-4.  The Lions would have been 6-3, but a 63-yard field goal by Tom Dempsey of the lowly Saints did them in.

 

What happened in the final five weeks?  St. Louis fell apart following the win over Dallas.  They tied Kansas City and beat the weak Philadelphia Eagles to move to 8-2-1 and looked to be in control.  But, that was their last win of the season.  At 8-5-1, they missed the playoffs altogether.

 

The Giants moved into first in the division by defeating the Cardinals in week 13 34-17, and at 9-4, they needed a win in the finale to secure the division title.  They never threatened in losing to the Rams by four touchdowns.

 

The Cowboys caught fire after the pasting in prime time.  They won five in a row to win the division on the final weekend.

 

The Minnesota Vikings rode the best defense in the league to a second consecutive 12-2-0 finish.  The San Francisco 49ers had the NFL’s top offense with quarterback John Brodie having an All-Pro season.  They made the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons (in 1957, they were in a playoff for the division title and lost to Detroit).

 

As for the wildcard berth, the Packers forgot how to score and fell out of the race, going on to lose four of their final five.  The Rams and Lions began to pull away from the rest, and the two faced off in week 13 on Monday Night Football at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.  The Lions won an exciting game to move a half game in front of the Rams at 9-4.  They clinched the spot the following week with a 20-0 win over Green Bay.

 

You can see a lot of possible similarities in this year’s races.  Could the San Francisco 49ers still catch fire and be this year’s version of the Bengals?  The NFC West is weak enough so that 8-8 could win the division.  Might Mike Singletary be able to coax the Prospectors to a 8-3 finish?

 

Dallas could be the team that comes from off the pace to win the division.  The Giants, Eagles, and Redskins are all capable of losing two or three in a row.

 

What about the Vikings?  Is Brett Favre going to rebound?  Can the Bears be the surprise team in the North and win the division much like the 49ers emerged in 1970.  What about the Chiefs?  Are they going to be like San Francisco was and win the division title in a big surprise?  Might they earn a wildcard like the upstart 1970 Dolphins, or will they be like the Cardinals and collapse in the second half?

 

It will be interesting in this season of parity.  Expect to see about 10 teams competing for three or four playoff spots in the final couple of weeks.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.2	102.3	1-3-0	20.3	27.8
Philadelphia	102.0	100.5	100.3	3-2-0	24.4	20.6
New York Giants	100.7	99.0	99.1	3-2-0	21.2	19.6
Washington	98.1	99.4	97.5	3-2-0	17.8	18.4
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.2	104.3	104.5	3-2-0	23.8	17.8
Minnesota	103.3	101.7	102.0	1-3-0	15.8	16.8
Chicago	100.9	99.7	101.1	4-1-0	18.4	14.8
Detroit	94.3	94.0	95.7	1-4-0	25.2	22.4
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	105.7	104.5	105.4	4-1-0	22.6	14.0
New Orleans	103.3	103.0	103.4	3-2-0	19.4	20.4
Carolina	97.9	94.9	95.9	0-5-0	10.4	22.0
Tampa Bay	94.3	97.6	97.6	3-1-0	14.8	16.0
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.2	94.6	92.8	0-5-0	15.2	26.0
Seattle	94.5	95.7	95.4	2-2-0	18.8	19.3
St. Louis	94.0	96.5	97.3	2-3-0	16.6	19.2
Arizona	92.5	94.3	94.2	3-2-0	17.6	27.6
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	111.1	108.2	109.0	4-1-0	27.0	16.2
New England	106.6	106.1	106.5	3-1-0	32.8	24.0
Miami	100.1	98.6	101.3	2-2-0	16.5	23.0
Buffalo	92.6	93.7	93.4	0-5-0	17.4	32.6
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.6	106.3	4-1-0	18.4	14.4
Pittsburgh	103.7	107.0	105.5	3-1-0	21.5	12.5
Cincinnati	101.6	100.8	100.9	2-3-0	20.0	20.4
Cleveland	97.4	97.3	96.3	1-4-0	15.6	19.4
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.9	104.4	103.4	3-2-0	27.2	20.2
Houston	101.9	101.5	103.5	3-2-0	23.6	27.2
Tennessee	99.4	102.3	99.5	3-2-0	26.4	19.0
Jacksonville	94.1	95.0	95.2	3-2-0	21.4	27.4
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	103.8	103.5	103.0	2-3-0	28.0	21.2
Kansas City	100.5	101.8	100.9	3-1-0	19.3	14.3
Denver	97.0	99.1	97.8	2-3-0	20.8	23.2
Oakland	92.4	93.0	92.7	2-3-0	22.2	26.8

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 6: October 17-18, 2010
Vegas Line as of 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
San Diego	ST. LOUIS	8.5	4.1	6.2	8 1/2	45
HOUSTON	Kansas City	1.3	-0.6	1.3	4 1/2	44
NEW ENGLAND	Baltimore	4.3	3.3	2.7	3	44 1/2
New Orleans	TAMPA BAY	4.4	-2.6	1.8	5	44
Atlanta	PHILADELPHIA	1.8	2.5	1.4	NL	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Detroit	9.7	6.2	10.4	10	44 1/2
CHICAGO	Seattle	10.2	10.0	10.0	7	40
GREEN BAY	Miami	6.6	10.1	5.1	NL	NL
PITTSBURGH	Cleveland	8.8	12.7	11.5	13 1/2	37
New York Jets	DENVER	11.4	5.8	7.6	3	40 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Oakland	7.1	3.1	3.3	6 1/2	41
MINNESOTA	Dallas	4.2	4.6	4.2	1 1/2	43 1/2
Indianapolis	WASHINGTON	3.5	2.5	2.4	3 1/2	43 1/2
Tennessee	JACKSONVILLE	2.5	6.3	0.6	3	44 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 5–October 10-11, 2010

Four weeks into the NFL season gives us enough time to begin to make assumptions.  There just may not be a great team in the league this year.  The Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team left, and it is a good bet they will not be so after this week.

We have a lot of mediocre teams and a handful of good but not great teams.  Scoring is down this year.  That gives the odds makers quite a dilemma.  The underdog is covering more than ever this year.  The lines will be shorter, and this will create many instances where sweetheart teaser plays become more advantageous.

If a team that should be a five-point favorite all of a sudden becomes a two and a half-point favorite, then playing a 10-point teaser to make them a seven and a half-point underdog becomes truly sweet and playing a 13-point teaser to make them a 10 ½-point underdog becomes money in the bank.

The PiRates are having a great time playing these NFL sweetheart teasers so far this year.  In fact, we may have to consider not playing any college games and picking just NFL games, at least as long as this hot streak continues.

We have also fattened up on money line parlays that take advantage of the fact that favorites are still winning but not covering.  The lower the regular spread, the lower the money line odds. 

                                                PiRate QB Passer Ratings                                       

 

Player	Team	AYPA	INT%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	7.4	0.58	120.3
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	6.1	0.00	118.2
Tony Romo	DAL	6.6	1.56	107.2
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.6	1.71	105.9
Donovan McNabb	WAS	6.5	1.65	105.9
Tom Brady	NE	6.3	1.64	104.9
Drew Brees	NO	6.2	1.79	103.0
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.3	2.84	99.9
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	1.82	98.2
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.1	2.01	94.8
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.86	90.2
Jay Cutler	CHI	5.7	2.94	90.0
Josh Freeman	TB	4.8	2.41	89.7
Matt Shcaub	HOU	5.6	3.08	88.3
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.4	2.46	87.0
Chad Henne	MIA	5.2	3.03	86.5
Vince Young	TEN	4.8	2.82	86.1
Kevin Kolb	PHI	3.3	2.22	82.9
Dennis Dixon	PIT	4.5	3.13	81.7
Matt Cassel	KC	4.4	3.90	74.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.5	4.21	72.1
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.55	70.9
Sam Bradford	STL	3.6	3.80	70.7
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.8	4.63	64.5
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	3.0	4.17	64.1
Shaun Hill	DET	3.7	4.67	63.6
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	4.76	62.8
Alex Smith	SF	3.5	4.64	62.8
Jason Campbell	OAK	2.2	3.85	62.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	2.8	4.46	60.4
Trent Edwards	BUF	1.5	3.85	58.6
Jake Delhomme	CLE	3.7	5.41	57.2
David Garrard	JAX	3.0	5.21	55.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.2	7.14	50.3
Brett Favre	MIN	2.8	6.19	45.2
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.8	7.14	42.4
Matt Moore	CAR	1.2	8.16	18.9
PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.2	102.3	1-2-0	18.0	17.7
Philadelphia	102.0	100.5	100.3	2-2-0	23.8	19.8
New York Giants	100.7	99.0	99.1	2-2-0	18.0	22.0
Washington	98.1	99.4	97.5	2-2-0	18.3	19.8
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.2	104.3	104.5	3-1-0	26.5	18.3
Minnesota	103.3	101.7	102.0	1-2-0	14.3	12.7
Chicago	100.9	99.7	101.1	3-1-0	17.3	17.0
Detroit	94.3	94.0	95.7	0-4-0	20.5	26.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	105.7	104.5	105.4	3-1-0	23.3	15.0
New Orleans	103.3	103.0	103.4	3-1-0	19.8	18.0
Carolina	97.9	94.9	95.9	0-4-0	11.5	21.8
Tampa Bay	94.3	97.6	97.6	2-1-0	16.7	19.7
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.2	94.6	92.8	0-4-0	13.0	25.8
Seattle	94.5	95.7	95.4	2-2-0	18.8	19.3
St. Louis	94.0	96.5	97.3	2-2-0	19.3	13.0
Arizona	92.5	94.3	94.2	2-2-0	14.5	29.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	111.1	108.2	109.0	3-1-0	26.5	15.3
New England	106.6	106.1	106.5	3-1-0	32.8	24.0
Miami	100.1	98.6	101.3	2-2-0	16.5	23.0
Buffalo	92.6	93.7	93.4	0-4-0	15.3	31.3
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.6	106.3	3-1-0	15.3	13.8
Pittsburgh	103.7	107.0	105.5	3-1-0	21.5	12.5
Cincinnati	101.6	100.8	100.9	2-2-0	19.8	19.5
Cleveland	97.4	97.3	96.3	1-3-0	17.0	19.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.9	104.4	103.4	2-2-0	29.3	23.0
Houston	101.9	101.5	103.5	3-1-0	27.0	25.5
Tennessee	99.4	102.3	99.5	2-2-0	24.5	17.0
Jacksonville	94.1	95.0	95.2	2-2-0	17.8	27.8
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	103.8	103.5	103.0	2-2-0	28.3	17.8
Kansas City	100.5	101.8	100.9	3-0-0	22.7	10.3
Denver	97.0	99.1	97.8	2-2-0	21.8	21.3
Oakland	92.4	93.0	92.7	1-3-0	19.0	26.8

 

This Week’s Games                                                                

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site                                                       

                                                                       

Week 5: October 10-11, 2010                                                            

Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday                                                                

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 5: October 10-11, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
BALTIMORE	Denver	12.1	9.5	11.5	7	38 1/2
BUFFALO	Jacksonville	1.5	1.7	1.2	Pk	41
INDIANAPOLIS	Kansas City	7.4	5.6	5.5	8	44 1/2
DETROIT	St. Louis	3.3	0.5	1.4	3	42 1/2
Atlanta	CLEVELAND	5.3	4.2	6.1	3	40 1/2
CINCINNATI	Tampa Bay	9.3	5.2	5.3	6 1/2	38
Chicago	CAROLINA	0.0	1.8	2.2	2 1/2	35 1/2
Green Bay	WASHINGTON	3.1	1.9	4.0	2 1/2	44
HOUSTON	New York Giants	3.2	4.5	6.4	3	47 1/2
New Orleans	ARIZONA	8.8	6.7	7.2	6 1/2	45 1/2
San Diego	OAKLAND	9.4	8.5	8.3	6	45
DALLAS	Tennessee	7.8	2.9	5.8	6 1/2	41 1/2
Philadelphia	SAN FRANCISCO	0.8	1.9	3.5	-3	38
NEW YORK JETS	Minnesota	9.8	8.5	9.0	4	38 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 4–October 3-4, 2010

Week 3 PiRate Passer Ratings *

Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	PiRate #
Peyton Manning	IND	7.7	0.00	127.1
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	6.1	0.00	118.2
Donovan McNabb	WAS	7.0	0.98	114.6
Kyle Orton	DEN	7.4	1.60	111.4
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.7	0.94	107.6
Tony Romo	DAL	6.6	1.56	107.2
Chad Henne	MIA	5.8	1.08	107.0
Jay Cutler	CHI	7.5	2.20	106.7
Drew Brees	NO	6.2	1.79	103.0
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	2.04	102.4
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	1.82	98.2
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	3.31	92.4
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.86	90.2
Josh Freeman	TB	4.8	2.41	89.7
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.4	2.46	87.0
Dennis Dixon	PIT	4.5	3.13	81.7
Brad Gradkowski	OAK	5.1	3.57	81.1
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.4	3.96	79.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.06	77.8
Matt Cassel	KC	4.4	3.90	74.4
Kerry Collins	TEN	3.7	4.00	69.5
Alex Smith	SF	3.7	4.20	67.7
Vince Young	TEN	4.3	4.65	67.1
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.8	4.63	64.5
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	3.0	4.17	64.1
Sam Bradford	STL	3.1	4.27	63.8
Shaun Hill	DET	3.7	4.67	63.6
Jason Campbell	OAK	2.2	3.85	62.5
Trent Edwards	BUF	1.5	3.85	58.6
Eli Manning	NYG	4.5	5.88	57.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	3.7	5.41	57.2
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.9	5.56	57.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.2	7.14	50.3
Brett Favre	MIN	2.8	6.19	45.2
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.8	7.14	42.4
David Garrard	JAX	1.8	6.76	34.6
Matt Moore	CAR	1.2	8.16	18.9

 

* PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

Where AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (passing yards minus yards after catch)

AYPA is available at advancednflstats.com

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.4	103.6	1-2-0	18.0	17.7
Philadelphia	103.3	103.1	103.6	2-1-0	27.7	20.7
New York Giants	98.8	94.8	97.4	1-2-0	18.3	28.3
Washington	96.8	99.4	95.6	1-2-0	18.7	22.3
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.8	106.6	107.8	2-1-0	26.0	15.7
Minnesota	103.3	102.5	102.3	1-2-0	14.3	12.7
Chicago	102.3	102.0	104.4	3-0-0	22.0	17.0
Detroit	92.7	95.1	92.7	0-3-0	18.7	26.0
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	106.3	108.9	107.7	2-1-0	25.7	15.3
New Orleans	104.5	104.8	106.0	2-1-0	21.0	19.3
Carolina	96.7	90.7	91.4	0-3-0	10.7	23.7
Tampa Bay	94.3	94.8	97.1	2-1-0	16.7	19.7
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	96.4	93.2	95.4	0-3-0	10.3	29.0
Arizona	95.6	97.5	97.9	2-1-0	16.0	25.7
Seattle	95.5	99.3	100.1	2-1-0	24.0	19.0
St. Louis	92.5	96.2	94.7	1-2-0	19.0	16.3
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	108.6	104.4	106.7	2-1-0	22.7	15.7
New England	104.6	100.4	104.5	2-1-0	30.0	27.3
Miami	102.1	101.6	101.2	2-1-0	17.3	17.0
Buffalo	95.6	94.0	91.2	0-3-0	15.7	29.0
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	104.8	101.9	103.7	2-1-0	14.7	13.7
Pittsburgh	104.5	107.7	107.7	3-0-0	24.0	11.0
Cincinnati	102.3	98.1	102.4	2-1-0	19.7	18.3
Cleveland	96.7	95.7	94.8	0-3-0	15.0	19.0
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	105.9	109.7	107.8	2-1-0	29.7	20.3
Houston	101.7	103.8	103.4	2-1-0	25.7	26.0
Tennessee	101.1	102.6	102.5	2-1-0	26.0	14.0
Jacksonville	93.1	93.4	91.2	1-2-0	13.3	27.7
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.2	101.6	99.9	1-2-0	24.0	20.3
Kansas City	100.5	100.4	99.5	3-0-0	22.7	10.3
Denver	95.8	100.6	96.8	1-2-0	20.3	21.7
Oakland	92.6	92.3	89.1	1-2-0	17.3	25.3

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 4: October 3-4, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
TENNESSEE	Denver	8.3	5.0	8.7	6 1/2	41 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Baltimore	2.7	8.8	7.0	1 1/2	34 1/2
Cincinnati	CLEVELAND	3.6	0.4	5.6	3	37 1/2
GREEN BAY	Detroit	16.1	14.5	18.1	14 1/2	45 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Carolina	10.8	17.1	17.6	13	44
ATLANTA	San Francisco	12.9	18.7	15.3	7	42
Seattle	ST. LOUIS	1.0	1.1	3.4	Pk	38 1/2
New York Jets	BUFFALO	10.0	7.4	12.5	5	37
Indianapolis	JACKSONVILLE	9.8	13.3	13.6	7 1/2	46 1/2
Houston	OAKLAND	7.1	9.5	12.3	3	43 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Arizona	7.6	6.1	4.0	8	46
PHILADELPHIA	Washington	9.5	6.7	11.0	6	42 1/2
Chicago	NEW YORK GIANTS	0.5	4.2	4.0	-4	44
New England	MIAMI	0.5	-3.2	1.3	Pk	45 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 2–September 19-20, 2010

18.3!  That is the average number of points scored per team in the opening week of the 2010 NFL season.  That is a little more than a field goal less per team compared to last year.  Is this a sign that scoring is about to become harder in the league, or is it more of a case of so many closely-matched contests in week one?  We will have to wait a couple of weeks before we can begin to make an assumption.

Week two finds a handful of interesting games on the slate.  The Jets hook up with the Pats, and it is almost a must-win game for Coach Rex Ryan and his crew.  After losing Monday night at home to Baltimore, a loss would to New England would give Team Belichick a two-game edge in the AFC East.

Indianapolis hosts the Giants in a battle of Manning vs. Manning.  The Colts could not stop the Houston running game, and the Texans are not a rushing behemoth.  If Eli and company get the best of Peyton and company, the Colts could be two games behind the rest of the division.

Kansas City visits Cleveland, and if the Chiefs can pull off the road win over a weak Browns’ team, they will become a legitimate threat in the AFC West.  The Chiefs get Cleveland and Buffalo as part of finishing fourth in the division last year, while the Chargers must play New England and Cincinnati. 

Dallas hosts Chicago, and the Cowboys must rebound or else they could find themselves in a hole they cannot crawl out of.  Jerry Jones might even begin to consider his options if the Cowboys lay another egg offensively this week.  The mental anguish of having the winning touchdown called back could do to Dallas what Virginia Tech’s loss to Boise State did to the Hokies.  Additionally, Chicago benefitted from a final play penalty to beat Detroit, and the Bears could get a positive bounce from that event.

The Saints and Vikings got an extra three days to prepare for their second games.  Minnesota hosts Miami.  The Dolphins struggled to beat the hapless Bills, and the Vikes are much better at home than they are on the road.  After the opening touchdown drive, Minnesota’s defense shut down Drew Brees.

The Saints fly into a hornet’s nest in San Francisco.  Mike Singletary will have the 49ers hopping mad after the embarrassing loss at Seattle.

                Week One PiRate Passer Ratings *                                

Player	Team	PiRate #
David Garrard	JAX	126.0
VinceYoung	TEN	125.4
Tom Brady	N-E	125.4
Peyton Manning	IND	123.8
Phil Rivers	S-D	122.1
Drew Brees	N-O	118.7
Derek Anderson	ARI	118.7
Michael Vick	PHI	118.2
Tony Romo	DAL	116.5
Donovan McNabb	WAS	111.4
Chad Henne	MIA	108.6
Matthew Stafford	DET	108.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	104.2
Trent Edwards	BUF	101.4
Matt Cassel	K-C	99.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	98.9
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	98.6
Kyle Orton	DEN	93.2
Matt Ryan	ATL	87.5
Joe Flacco	BAL	87.2
Dennis Dixon	PIT	82.1
Josh Freeman	T-B	75.0
Brett Favre	MIN	74.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	74.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	73.7
Alex Smith	S-F	59.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	57.2
Matt Schaub	HOU	47.9
Shaun Hill	DET	47.2
Sam Bradford	STL	46.1
Aaron Rodgers	G-B	40.1
Eli Manning	NYG	18.4
Matt Moore	CAR	6.2

 

* PiRate Passer Rating: [((7 x AYPA) – (10 x Int. %)) + 105] x 0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (eliminates Yards After the Catch)

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	103.6	102.7	101.1	0-1-0	7	13
New York Giants	101.5	102.5	101.9	1-0-0	31	18
Philadelphia	101.0	100.8	99.0	0-1-0	20	27
Washington	99.2	100.6	98.7	1-0-0	13	7
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.8	106.7	105.8	1-0-0	27	20
Minnesota	104.6	105.2	105.5	0-1-0	9	14
Chicago	100.3	96.8	99.9	1-0-0	19	14
Detroit	92.3	91.3	92.4	0-1-0	14	19
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans	105.4	107.7	107.9	1-0-0	14	9
Atlanta	103.9	102.3	102.9	0-1-0	9	15
Carolina	100.1	100.4	98.2	0-1-0	18	31
Tampa Bay	94.7	96.7	94.6	1-0-0	17	14
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	98.6	95.8	98.2	0-1-0	6	31
Arizona	98.3	98.6	98.7	1-0-0	17	13
Seattle	95.2	98.4	98.0	1-0-0	31	6
St. Louis	90.3	90.7	91.3	0-1-0	13	17
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	106.8	103.2	104.3	0-1-0	9	10
New England	106.1	104.4	107.4	1-0-0	38	24
Miami	101.7	101.3	101.7	1-0-0	15	10
Buffalo	97.0	95.2	95.9	0-1-0	10	15
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.2	106.9	1-0-0	10	9
Pittsburgh	101.7	102.9	102.6	1-0-0	15	9
Cincinnati	99.9	98.9	99.6	0-1-0	24	38
Cleveland	96.9	95.0	94.1	0-1-0	14	17
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Houston	103.7	104.3	103.3	1-0-0	34	24
Indianapolis	103.2	103.9	103.1	0-1-0	24	34
Tennessee	100.5	102.6	102.9	1-0-0	38	13
Jacksonville	96.9	97.8	98.2	1-0-0	24	17
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.2	101.8	101.1	0-1-0	14	21
Kansas City	97.0	98.7	97.8	1-0-0	21	14
Denver	96.0	95.8	96.4	0-1-0	17	24
Oakland	91.6	92.0	90.6	0-1-0	13	38
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 2: Sept. 19-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of: 10:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
CLEVELAND	Kansas City	2.9	-0.7	-0.7	1	38
GREEN BAY	Buffalo	10.8	14.5	12.9	13	43
Baltimore	CINCINNATI	4.2	4.3	5.3	2 1/2	40
TENNESSEE	Pittsburgh	1.8	2.7	3.3	4 1/2	37
Philadelphia	DETROIT	5.7	6.5	3.6	5	42
DALLAS	Chicago	6.3	8.9	4.2	7 1/2	41
CAROLINA	Tampa Bay	8.4	6.7	6.6	NL	NL
ATLANTA	Arizona	8.6	6.7	7.2	6 1/2	43
MINNESOTA	Miami	6.9	7.9	7.8	5 1/2	39 1/2
OAKLAND	St. Louis	3.3	3.3	1.3	3 1/2	37 1/2
DENVER	Seattle	3.8	0.4	1.4	3 1/2	40
Houston	WASHINGTON	1.5	0.7	1.6	3	44
SAN DIEGO	Jacksonville	6.3	6.0	4.9	7 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	New England	2.7	0.8	-1.1	-1 1/2	38 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	New York Giants	4.7	4.4	4.2	5 1/2	48
New Orleans	SAN FRANCISCO	2.8	7.9	5.7	4 1/2	44

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

 

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

 

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

 

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

 

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

 Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side:

Player	PiRate QB Rating		Player	Official NFL Rating
Aaron Rodgers	108.9	|||	Drew Brees	109.6
Drew Brees	107.5	|||	Brett Favre	107.2
Brett Favre	106.7	|||	Phil Rivers	104.4
Tony Romo	105.6	|||	Aaron Rodgers	103.2
Phil Rivers	104.8	|||	Ben Roethlisberger	100.5
Ben Roethlisberger	97.9	|||	Peyton Manning	99.9
Matt Schaub	97.8	|||	Matt Schaub	98.6
Peyton Manning	97.2	|||	Tony Romo	97.6
Donovan McNabb	96.3	|||	Tom Brady	96.2
David Garrard	96.1	|||	Kurt Warner	93.2
Kyle Orton	94.7	|||	Eli Manning	93.1
Brad Gradkowski	94.4	|||	Donovan McNabb	92.9
Tom Brady	93.8	|||	Joe Flacco	88.9
Kurt Warner	93.4	|||	Kyle Orton	86.8
Eli Manning	92.8	|||	Jason Campbell	86.4
Vince Young	92.1	|||	Carson Palmer	83.6
Joe Flacco	87.7	|||	David Garrard	83.5
Marc Bulger	86.7	|||	Vince Young	82.8
Jason Campbell	85.4	|||	Alex Smith	81.5
Matt Ryan	83.0	|||	Matt Ryan	80.9
Carson Palmer	81.7	|||	Brad Gradkowski	80.6
Chad Henne	80.8	|||	Jay Cutler	76.8
Alex Smith	79.7	|||	Chad Henne	75.2
Brady Quinn	78.4	|||	Matt Hasselbeck	75.1
Matt Hasselbeck	75.7	|||	Trent Edwards	73.8
Matt Cassel	75.7	|||	Marc Bulger	70.7
Kerry Collins	72.1	|||	Matt Cassel	69.9
Trent Edwards	69.9	|||	Ryan Fitzpatrick	69.7
Kyle Boller	69.1	|||	Brady Quinn	67.2
Jay Cutler	67.3	|||	Kerry Collins	65.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	64.3	|||	Mark Sanchez	63.0
Mark Sanchez	60.9	|||	Kyle Boller	61.2
JaMarcus Russell	56.4	|||	Matt Stafford	61.0
Matt Stafford	54.1	|||	Josh Freeman	59.8
Jake Delhomme	51.5	|||	Jake Delhomme	59.4
Josh Freeman	46.4	|||	JaMarcus Russell	50.0
Derek Anderson	46.3	|||	Derek Anderson	42.1

 

Coming tomorrow: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2010 season and give our predictions for each division.

PiRate Ratings Week 16 NFL Previews: December 18-22, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 16

A Preview Of The Conference Championship Games?

 

What a coincidence!  The Steelers go to Nashville, and the Panthers go to the Meadowlands in what could very well be a preview of the AFC and NFC Championship games.  Personally, I don’t think we will see either of these games replayed in the same venues in four weeks.

 

There are several other key games this week.  Indianapolis can clinch the number five playoff spot in the AFC if they defeat Jacksonville.  Baltimore and Dallas hook up in an important Saturday night game.  The loser of this game might need help in week 17. 

 

Miami faces a possible trap game at Kansas City, where the temperature is going to be well below freezing. 

 

Philadelphia and Washington play an eliminator game, where the loser can hang it up for the season. 

 

Arizona has a tough date at New England, where the Patriots are almost in a must-win situation. 

 

Atlanta and Minnesota play in the Fox second game, and the winner will be in great shape, while the loser is in trouble (especially if Chicago wins Monday night). 

 

The Jets must travel to the West Coast for the fourth time this season.  They are 0-3 so far. 

 

Denver can secure the AFC West with a win over swooning Buffalo or a San Diego loss at Tampa Bay.  The Bucs need to win against the Chargers. 

 

On Monday night, the Bears may be playing for a chance to knot the NFC North, or they could already be eliminated depending on what happens in Minneapolis.

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		11	–	3	–	0	374	246	108.62	107.01	106.50	2
Dallas		9	–	5	–	0	332	288	102.95	103.96	105.36	2
Philadelphia		8	–	5	–	1	369	273	107.60	106.03	106.70	2
Washington		7	–	7	–	0	231	266	97.77	98.22	98.97	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Minnesota		9	–	5	–	0	342	290	105.12	105.24	106.65	2
Chicago		8	–	6	–	0	331	302	103.12	101.77	101.95	2
Green Bay		5	–	9	–	0	371	339	104.35	101.02	97.85	2
Detroit		0	–	14	–	0	240	444	88.47	89.81	88.23	3
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Carolina		11	–	3	–	0	353	264	106.47	105.55	107.58	2
Tampa Bay		9	–	5	–	0	313	251	105.19	103.84	105.78	2
Atlanta		9	–	5	–	0	336	281	104.71	103.45	103.21	2
New Orleans		7	–	7	–	0	390	353	103.29	102.62	100.96	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		8	–	6	–	0	386	358	100.03	99.65	100.31	3
San Francisco		5	–	9	–	0	295	341	94.85	96.51	96.25	3
Seattle		3	–	11	–	0	260	355	91.65	93.14	92.53	3
St. Louis		2	–	12	–	0	189	417	83.33	87.70	84.98	2
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		9	–	5	–	0	385	319	101.06	100.30	102.45	2
New England		9	–	5	–	0	350	302	100.33	101.54	102.55	2
Miami		9	–	5	–	0	283	269	98.18	99.21	101.65	2
Buffalo		6	–	8	–	0	306	306	96.18	95.64	95.74	3
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Pittsburgh		11	–	3	–	0	302	192	109.24	108.44	108.71	2
Baltimore		9	–	5	–	0	325	213	108.79	107.24	107.78	3
Cleveland		4	–	10	–	0	232	305	96.76	96.59	94.25	2
Cincinnati		2	–	11	–	1	174	358	91.41	92.93	91.84	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tennessee		12	–	2	–	0	344	197	109.87	107.77	108.10	2
Indianapolis		10	–	4	–	0	323	274	104.76	104.55	106.44	2
Houston		7	–	7	–	0	319	343	100.27	101.56	101.34	3
Jacksonville		5	–	9	–	0	271	309	98.34	97.85	96.61	3
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		8	–	6	–	0	326	366	95.50	97.62	99.00	2
San Diego		6	–	8	–	0	346	302	101.75	100.18	99.56	2
Oakland		3	–	11	–	0	205	348	89.46	90.76	89.22	2
Kansas City		2	–	12	–	0	254	386	90.65	92.31	90.97	2

 

If The Playoffs Started Today

 

NFC 1^st Round

#6 Tampa Bay at #3 Minnesota

#5 Dallas at #4 Arizona

 

#1 New York Giants would host lower surviving seed

#2 Carolina would host higher surviving seed

 

Still Alive

Atlanta 9-5-0, Philadelphia 8-5-1, Chicago 8-6-0, Washington 7-7-0

 

AFC 1^st Round

#6 Baltimore at #3 New York Jets

#5 Indianapolis at #4 Denver

 

#1 Tennessee would host lower surviving seed

#2 Pittsburgh would host higher surviving seed

 

Still Alive

Miami 9-5-0 leads New England 9-5-0

San Diego would beat out Denver if both finished 8-8-0

 

Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book.  When I believe it is okay to play different spreads of the same game, I have put those numbers in parentheses.  If you don’t see different choices, then I only recommend that single spread for that game.

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

NFL Previews-Week 16

 

Indianapolis (10-4-0) at Jacksonville (5-9-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Thursday

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature falling from the upper to mid 60’s

 

PiRate:                Indianapolis by 3                  

Mean:                  Indianapolis by 4

Bias:                    Indianapolis by 7

 

Vegas:               Indianapolis by 6, 6.5, 7

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 79  Jacksonville 21

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 27  Jacksonville 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 38  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 27 Indianapolis 17

 

Strategy:     Over 44, Indianapolis +4 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +7 in 13-point teaser, Indianapolis -250, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser

 

Indianapolis has something to play for in this game as well as some revenge for a nasty loss in September.  Jacksonville will finish in last place in the division after being picked to win it by many pundits.

 

The Colts have won seven games straight after losing at Tennessee to fall to 3-4.  It is my belief that they will win this game and win next week against Tennessee to finish in a tie for first in the division (Titans hold the tiebreaker edge).

 

By winning this game, Indianapolis will sew up the #5 seed in the AFC Playoffs, and that means playing at Denver (San Diego) rather than the AFC East Champion.  I think they will be ready to play, and it will lead to a touchdown or more victory.  Then, watch out for Peyton Manning in the playoffs.

 

 

Baltimore (9-5-0) at Dallas (9-5-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Saturday

TV:               NFL

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible, then clearing as a cold front moves through, moderate wins, temperature at kickoff in the low to mid 60’s but dropping rapidly to the low 40’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 4

Mean:                  Baltimore by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Dallas by 4, 4.5, 5   

Ov/Un:               39, 39.5, 40

 

100 Sims:           Dallas 52  Baltimore 48

Avg Sim Score:  Dallas 19  Baltimore 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Dallas 21  Baltimore 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Baltimore 20  Dallas 10

 

Strategy:     Baltimore +15 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +18 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

 

This could be the last game ever played in Texas Stadium, as the Cowboys could only host the NFC Championship if they finish as the higher-seeded wildcard team and they play the lower-seeded wildcard team.

 

Both teams played critical games last week and should enter this game at less than full strength, if only psychologically.  Baltimore should be ready to rebound.  I am not sure about the Dallas players.  Combine the dissension with the probable bounce from beating the Giants, and I think they could play below expectations this week.

 

I believe Baltimore has the better chance of winning, but I will play it close to the vest and select the Ravens in the teasers.  While I would normally tease the Over for a primetime game, I am guessing that the Ravens’ anger will benefit their defense and not their offense.  I am looking for a 17-13 Baltimore win.  Ray Lewis is mad, and that’s worth four points.

 

 

New Orleans (7-7-0) at Detroit (0-14-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                New Orleans by 12

Mean:                  New Orleans by 10

Bias:                    New Orleans by 10

 

Vegas:               New Orleans by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               50, 50.5, 51, 51.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 87  Detroit 13

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 36  Detroit 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 55  Detroit 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 34  New Orleans 27

 

Strategy:     Detroit +7½, Detroit +17½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +20½ in 13-point teaser 

 

Detroit has two weeks left to avoid a history-making season they definitely do not want to have.  They will be playing these last two games like they are playoff games.  I think this may be their better shot.

 

New Orleans was eliminated from the playoff hunt last week, and they have nothing to play for.  Reggie Bush may not play in this game, and you beat the Lions by running the ball down their throats.

 

New Orleans’ defense is just weak enough for Dan Orlovsky to pass for 200 yards.  I don’t know if it will be enough to win, but I think the Lions can beat the spread, even if they give up 400 passing yard to Drew Brees.

 

 

Cincinnati (2-11-1) at Cleveland (4-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow, strong wind, temperature in the mid to upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Cleveland by 7

Mean:                  Cleveland by 6

Bias:                    Cleveland by 4

 

Vegas:               Cleveland by 2.5, 3        

Ov/Un:               33.5, 34, 34.5

 

100 Sims:           Cleveland 63 Cincinnati 37

Avg Sim Score:  Cleveland 23 Cincinnati 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cleveland 40 Cincinnati 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cincinnati 28 Cleveland 14

 

Strategy:     Over 23½ in 10-point teaser, Over 20½ in 13-point teaser      

 

This is strictly a strategy pick here.  I think the average NFL team could put their defensive players on offense and have a good chance of scoring 20 points against the Bengals.  I think the Bengals have a 65% chance of scoring 20 points against the Browns.  The weather is the only negative intangible.  If it is really windy with blowing snow, it could hold the score down.  Still, I have to believe that a 14-10 final is about as low as the scoring could be in this one.  The actual attendance for this game might rival the attendance for the Humanitarian Bowl in a couple weeks.

 

Miami (9-5-0) at Kansas City (2-12-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the upper teens

 

PiRate:                Miami by 6

Mean:                  Miami by 5

Bias:                    Miami by 9

 

Vegas:                Miami by 3.5, 4

Ov/Un:               39.5, 40

 

100 Sims:           Miami 83  Kansas City 17

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 23  Kansas City 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Kansas City 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 21 Miami 16 (4 others ended in 5-point wins)

 

Strategy:     Kansas City +14 in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +17 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

 

Again, this game is another strategy pick game.  The Dolphins cannot prepare for 15-degree weather and wind chills below zero.  Kansas City seems to be the champion of losing close games.  Six of their losses have been by a touchdown or less.

 

Miami’s offense has been sputtering the last month or so, and I think the reason for it is that defenses have figured out how to play the single wing package.  The Dolphins’ defense should still control the Chiefs’ offense for most of the day, and I look for a final score of about 17-10 in favor of Tony Sparano’s Fish.

 

 

Pittsburgh (11-3-0) at Tennessee (12-2-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of light rain, strong wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 3

Mean:                  Tennessee by 1

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:               Pk, Pittsburgh by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5  

Ov/Un:               34.5, 35

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 61  Tennessee 39

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 19  Tennessee 15

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 24  Tennessee 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 16  Pittsburgh 7

 

Strategy:     Pittsburgh Pk, Pittsburgh +10 in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +13 in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 10-point teaser, Over 21½ in 13-point teaser, Pittsburgh -130 

The winner of this game will have control over home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  The Titans seemed to have it clinched a few weeks ago when they held a three-game lead over the field.  After losses to the Jets and Texans and with Pittsburgh on a five-game winning streak, it sets up this big game.

 

The Steelers come into this game rather healthy for Week 17.  The Titans are hurting big time.  Both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are finished for the regular season, and the Titans cannot rely on greybeard Jevon Kearse to be his old freakish self. 

 

Neither team strikes fear in opponents with their offenses, but Ben Roethlisberger is considerably better than Kerry Collins, and the Steelers’ receiving corps is much better than that of the Titans.

 

I believe the Steelers will outmuscle the Titans in the trenches and win an ugly game that leaves both teams in even worse shape as the final week approaches.  It is highly possible Tennessee will limp into the playoffs with a three-game losing streak, while Pittsburgh enjoys a seven-game winning streak with home field advantage theirs.

 

 

Philadelphia (8-5-1) at Washington (7-7-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain, freezing rain, and sleet, light wind, temperature falling through the 30’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 8

Mean:                  Philadelphia by 6

Bias:                    Philadelphia by 6

 

Vegas:               Philadelphia by 4.5, 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               39, 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 60  Washington 40

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 26  Washington 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 38  Washington 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 24  Philadelphia 13

 

Strategy:     Philadelphia -4½, Philadelphia -215, Philadelphia +5½ in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +8½ in 13-point teaser, Over 26 in 13-point teaser

Since Thanksgiving, the Eagles have played the best ball of all the NFC teams, while the Redskins performance has been no better than St. Louis or Detroit.

 

Both teams technically still have a chance to reach the playoffs, but Washington’s chances are about the same as one of their players winning the mega millions lottery.

 

Philadelphia has some amends to make up for after losing by six to the Redskins in early October.  At the time, the Eagles were in a funk while Washington was coming up with a way to win every week.  Expect a completely different game this week.  I’m looking for Philadelphia to win by five or more points and wouldn’t be surprised if that “more” was something like 10-17 points, as I am looking for Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook to shine.  

 

 

San Francisco (5-9-0) at St. Louis (2-12-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                San Francisco by 10

Mean:                 San Francisco by 7

Bias:                    San Francisco by 9

 

Vegas:                San Francisco by 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 68  St. Louis 32

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 25  St. Louis 17

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 35  St. Louis 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 17  San Francisco 12

 

Strategy:     Under 57 in 13-point teaser

Since that crazy 34-14 upset over Dallas, St. Louis has averaged just 11.6 points per game in their last eight games.  Since Mike Singletary took over as coach, the 49ers have yielded just 18.5 points per game (10.3 in their last 3).  That doesn’t bode well for the Rams’ offense.  I would be shocked if they reach 17 points in this contest.  San Francisco is no juggernaut on offense, and they could very well score 17 points or less themselves.

 

This game should be close, and I cannot see a scenario where both teams reach 20 points.  The highest score I could see in this would be around 28-17, so I like teasing the Under in this game.

 

 

San Diego (6-8-0) at Tampa Bay (9-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 70’s

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 5

Mean:                 Tampa Bay by 6

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 8

 

Vegas:                Tampa Bay by 3, 3.5      

Ov/Un:               42, 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 73  San Diego 27

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 29  San Diego 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 34  San Diego 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Diego 31  Tampa Bay 24

 

Strategy:     Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

San Diego is so unpredictable, while Tampa Bay has been out of sync the last couple of weeks.  I won’t begin to try to figure out which team will win this “must win” game, but I will surmise that both teams will top 17 points in this strategy play.  I am hesitant to pick the Buccaneers to win at home, as they have been struggling to put together a total effort in the last month. 

 

San Diego has been involved in nine close games, in which the Chargers have gone just 2-7.  They play about the same on the road as they do at home.  It wouldn’t be much of an upset if they won this game, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they found a way to lose another close one.

 

 

Arizona (8-6-0) at New England (9-5-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow, moderate wind, temperature in the low 30’s

 

PiRate:                New England by 2

Mean:                  New England by 4

Bias:                    New England by 4

 

Vegas:               New England by 7.5, 8, 9

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           New England 57  Arizona 43

Avg Sim Score:  New England 29  Arizona 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 41  Arizona 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Arizona 45  New England 28

 

Strategy:     New England +2½ in 10-point teaser, New England +5½ in 13-point teaser, New England -335, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser 

Arizona can do nothing to change its playoff destination.  The Cardinals will host an opening round game in the playoffs whether they finish 10-6, 9-7, or 8-8.  Yes, they could be the number three or number four seed, but it really won’t make much difference.

 

New England is still very much on the playoff bubble.  At 9-5-0, they are the eighth team in the AFC, and only six teams make the playoffs.  This game is much more important to them than it is to the Cardinals.  The snow and cold weather should help them a bit in this game.

 

Arizona is just 4-4 since their bye week.  The Cardinals have been struggling against the good teams and have fattened up on the weak teams.  Against teams with a losing record, they are 6-0.  In their last eight games against teams either in the playoffs or in the hunt for a playoff spot, they have given up 38 points per game.

 

New England is a Jekyll and Hyde team.  They have two typical offensive outputs.  Either they struggle offensively and lose 24-13 or they move the ball like they did most of last year and win 45-21.  I can see no reason not to believe that this will be one of those weeks where the Patriots have little trouble advancing the pigskin, even in inclement weather. 

 

Kurt Warner may pass for 300-350 yards, but I don’t see the Cardinals matching the Pats point for point.  I’ll go with Matt Cassel and crew to win 31-21 or thereabouts.

 

 

Houston (7-7-0) at Oakland (3-11-0)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Houston by 9

Mean:                 Houston by 9

Bias:                   Houston by 10

 

Vegas:               Houston by 7, 7.5, 8      

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 77  Oakland 23

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 26  Oakland 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 33  Oakland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Houston 23

 

Strategy:     Houston +3 in 10-point teaser, Houston +6 in 13-point teaser

Houston could easily be in the playoff mix this season if it weren’t for all the troubles the team endured at the beginning of the season due to the hurricane.  Two close losses to Indianapolis and an overtime loss to Jacksonville keep them from owning a 10-4-0 record.  The Texans have won four in a row, and they can see a winning record in their future.  They must win this game and then beat the Bears at Reliant Stadium next week to clinch their first ever winning season.

 

Oakland would just like for this season to end.  When they lost at home to the Chiefs, the Raider defense seemed to have folded up the tent for the season.

 

I think Houston could win this game in a blowout, but the Texans are coming off an emotional high after defeating Tennessee.  So, I must caution you to be conservative in this one and consider the possibility that Houston could be a little flat this week.  They may have a hard time just winning by any amount, so go with them in the teasers.

 

 

New York Jets (9-5-0) at Seattle (3-11-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 7

Mean:                 Jets by 4

Bias:                   Jets by 7

 

Vegas:                Jets by 4.5, 5, 6

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Jets 64  Seattle 36

Avg Sim Score:  Jets 32  Seattle 26

Outlier 1a Sim:  Jets 48  Seattle 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 30  Jets 24 ot (largest spread)

 

Strategy:     Seattle +16 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +19 in 13-point teaser, Under 57½ in 13-point teaser

This will be Mike Holmgren’s last home game as coach of the Seahawks, and look who will be the opposing quarterback-the guy who wears the same Super Bowl ring he wears.

 

The Jets have made three other trips to the West Coast this year.  They lost at San Diego 48-29, at Oakland 16-13 in OT, and at San Francisco 24-14.  Seattle is no worse than Oakland and split with San Francisco, so they should have a decent chance to win this one.

 

The Jets control their own destiny.  If they win this game and then beat the Dolphins next week, they are the AFC East Champions.  If they lose this week, then they will need a New England loss and a win over Miami to get into the playoffs.

 

Brett Favre usually finds a way to win this type of game.  I think the Jets realize they are unlikely to make the playoffs if they lose.  However, I don’t expect them to win by double digits.  They will be happy to win by a field goal, so I like the home team in the teasers.

 

 

Buffalo (6-8-0) at Denver (8-6-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Denver by 1

Mean:                 Denver by 4

Bias:                   Denver by 5

 

Vegas:                Denver by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               43.5, 44

 

100 Sims:           Denver 55  Buffalo 45

Avg Sim Score:  Denver 30  Buffalo 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Denver 41  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 28  Denver 17

 

Strategy:       Denver +3½ in 10-point teaser, Denver +6½ in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser

Two months ago, the Bills were 4-0 and the darlings of the NFL media world.  Coach Dick Jauron was a genius.  10 years go, Mike Shanahan was a genius.  Now, those same pundits believe neither coach could properly lead their teams out of paper bags.

 

The truth of the matter is that both of these teams have glaring holes on the defensive side of the ball, and both of these teams have been hurt by injuries on the attack side.

 

Trent Edwards will return to the lineup for Buffalo, and the Bills’ offense should rebound with a stellar effort.  Buffalo should top 21 points in this game.

 

Jay Cutler will go over 4,000 total passing yards in this game, as I expect him to top 275 yards against the Bills’ secondary.  Denver should top 24 points. 

 

The Broncos will win the AFC West without any help from Tampa Bay this week.  Look for the home team to win by five to eight points.    

 

 

Atlanta (9-5-0) at Minnesota (9-5-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Minnesota by 2

Mean:                  Minnesota by 4

Bias:                    Minnesota by 5

 

Vegas:               Minnesota by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Minnesota 52  Atlanta 48

Avg Sim Score:  Minnesota 24  Atlanta 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Minnesota 28  Atlanta 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Atlanta 23  Minnesota 13

 

Strategy:     Minnesota +7 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser

This is going to be a great game, and most of the nation will get to see it.  The Vikings will clinch the old black and blue division if they win, whereas the Falcons will likely move into the number six position in the playoff field if they win. 

 

Look at Minnesota’s resume since September.  The purple people eaters have won eight of their last 10 games.  The two losses have come on the road by seven and six points.  Gus Frerotte came off the bench to start the turnaround, but Tarvaris Jackson looked like an All-pro last week against Arizona.

 

Atlanta is a tough team in 2008.  They play like the Bears of the 1960’s and 1980’s.  Michael Turner should top the 1,500 yard rushing barrier some time during this game, and he should match Adrian Peterson yard for yard, even against the Vikings’ tough run defense.

 

The difference in this game could be Bernard Berrian.  He can take a simple pass reception and turn it into a 40 yard gain.  The Falcon secondary will have to play a little more loose to prevent Berrian from breaking a long one.  That should give Peterson just enough extra edge to have a five to six yards per carry average.  I’ll take the Vikings in a close one in the neighborhood of 24-21.

 

Carolina (11-3-0) at New York Giants (11-3-0)  

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Rain, sleet, and snow, moderate wind, temperature falling from the mid 30’s to the mid 20’s

                    

PiRate:                Giants by 4

Mean:                  Giants by 3

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:               Giants by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               37.5, 38, 38.5, 39

 

100 Sims:           Giants 51 Carolina 48 1 Tie (8 OT games)

Avg Sim Score:  Carolina 20  Giants 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Carolina 24  Giants 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Giants 21  Carolina 12

 

Strategy:     Carolina +13½ in 10-point teaser, Carolina +16½ in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 13-point teaser

Carolina has its offense in gear, averaging 32.4 points in their last five games.  The Giants have played more like the Rams since the Plaxico Burress shooting incident.  Now, Brandon Jacobs is hurting, and even though it looks like he will play, don’t expect him to rush for 70 yards Sunday night.

 

Carolina has been quite fortunate to this point of the season.  Their defense has stayed healthy all season with nary a start being missed.  That could change this week as defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu could miss this game with a tweaked ankle.

 

To the winner will more than likely go home field advantage for the playoffs.  I believe Carolina will pass the ball a little more than they normally do to set up the running game with their dynamic duo of James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  Jake Delhomme should pass for 200 yards, and the Panthers will win by about a field goal to a touchdown.

 

 

Green Bay (5-9-0) at Chicago (8-6-0)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Cloudy, moderate wind, temperature holding steady in the mid teens

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Chicago by 3

Bias:                    Chicago by 6

 

Vegas:                Chicago by 4, 4.5

Ov/Un:               41.5, 42

 

100 Sims:           Chicago 89  Green Bay 11

Avg Sim Score:  Chicago 29  Green Bay 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Chicago 37  Green Bay 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Green Bay 32  Chicago 27

 

Strategy:     Chicago -4, Chicago -195, Chicago +6 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +9 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

This is a tough game to analyze due to major intangible factors that won’t be known until Sunday evening.  If Minnesota beats Atlanta, then the Bears could be eliminated from the playoffs.  They will be eliminated from the NFC North race, and they will have only a tiny chance of gaining a wildcard spot.

 

Green Bay’s defense has gone south too many times this year, and that’s why the Packers are going to lose more than they win.  The offense hasn’t been as powerful since the first game against the Bears, and this game could see a near reversal of that one-but only if the Bears really have something to play for.

 

Regardless of the outcome in Minneapolis, I see Chicago winning this game by stopping the Green Bay offense and scoring just enough to be comfortably ahead as the fourth quarter starts.  Call it a 27-14 win on the Midway, as Kyle Orton passes for 250 yards against Aaron Rodgers’ 200 and a pick or two.

 

 

 A Bad Week Follow A Good Week

 

I made a mistake last week when I posted my picks for the week, and it wound up costing me two games.  Thus, I finished 1-4 when I should have gone 3-2.  Mistakes count, whether here or at a betting window, so I have to live with the consequences.  It made me quite upset when I realized it Sunday morning.

 

For the season, the record against the spread is now 95-79-7, which computes to 54.6%. 

 

I am going with a variety of picks this week, but I am not overly thrilled with the choices.  In past years, I have been more excited about the end of the season games than the early part of the schedule.  This year, I am finding it harder and harder to identify excellent plays as the season comes to the end.

 

Here are my wagers for week 17 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 44

 

2. Pittsburgh Pk vs. Tennessee

 

3. Philadelphia -4½ vs. Washington

 

4. Chicago -4 vs. Green Bay

 

5. Indianapolis -250 vs. Jacksonville

 

6. Philadelphia -215 vs. Washington

 

7. New England -335 vs. Arizona

 

8. Chicago -195 vs. Green Bay

 

9. 10-point teaser

Indianapolis +4 vs. Jacksonville

Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 34

Baltimore +15 vs. Dallas

 

10. 10-point teaser

Detroit +17½ vs. New Orleans

Cincinnati & Cleveland Over 23½

Kansas City +14 vs. Miami

 

11. 10-point teaser

Pittsburgh +10 vs. Tennessee

Philadelphia +5½ vs. Washington

San Diego & Tampa Bay Over 32

 

12. 10-point teaser

New England +2½ vs. Arizona

New England & Arizona Over 34

Houston +3 vs. Oakland

 

13. 10-point teaser

Seattle +16 vs. New York Jets

Denver +3½ vs. Buffalo

Minnesota +7 vs. Atlanta

 

14. 10-point teaser

Carolina +13½ vs. New York Giants

Chicago +6 vs. Green Bay

Chicago & Green Bay Over 31½

 

15. 13-point teaser

Baltimore +18 vs. Dallas

Kansas City +17 vs. Miami

Pittsburgh +13 vs. Tennessee

Philadelphia +8½ vs. Washington

 

16. 13-point teaser

San Francisco & St. Louis Under 57

New England +5½ vs. Arizona

New England & Arizona Over 31

Houston +6 vs. Oakland

 

17. 13-point teaser

Seattle +19 vs. New York Jets

Minnesota +10 vs. Atlanta

Carolina +16½ vs. New York Giants

Chicago +9 vs. Green Bay

   

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week 15 NFL Previews: December 11-15, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 15

And Down The Stretch They Come!

 

There’s just a furlong to go in the NFL regular season, and most of the playoff spots are still to be decided.

 

If the season ended today in the NFC, the Giants and Panthers would get first round byes, with the Cardinals, Vikings, Buccaneers, and Cowboys playing in the first round.  The Falcons still control their own destiny, even though they are the number seven team in the NFC this week.  Also in the running for a playoff spot are the Eagles, Redskins, Saints, and Bears.

 

If the season ended today in the AFC, the Titans and Steelers would get first round byes, with the Jets, Broncos, Colts, and Ravens playing in the first round.  The Dolphins and Patriots still have good chances to move up, while the rest of the conference is out of the picture (San Diego could sneak in with three wins and three Denver losses).

 

 

This week’s schedule is chock full of important games with playoff implications.  In the NFC alone, there are five games where both teams have winning records and strong playoff chances.  It will be almost like a preliminary to the playoffs.  In the AFC, all eyes will be in Baltimore for the big game between the Ravens and Steelers.  Pittsburgh must play at Tennessee next week, so the Steelers have a rough couple of road games.

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

 

Current NFL Standings
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		11	–	2	–	0	366	226	110.21	109.88	108.46	2
Dallas		8	–	5	–	0	312	280	102.02	102.78	103.60	2
Philadelphia		7	–	5	–	1	339	263	107.18	105.64	105.81	2
Washington		7	–	6	–	0	218	246	99.03	99.74	100.60	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Minnesota		8	–	5	–	0	307	276	103.51	103.71	104.09	2
Chicago		7	–	6	–	0	304	278	102.34	101.17	102.15	2
Green Bay		5	–	8	–	0	355	319	104.62	102.10	100.99	2
Detroit		0	–	13	–	0	219	413	87.55	88.46	87.65	3
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Carolina		10	–	3	–	0	323	254	105.75	104.74	106.54	2
Tampa Bay		9	–	4	–	0	303	238	105.14	103.85	105.04	2
Atlanta		8	–	5	–	0	323	271	104.40	103.44	103.62	2
New Orleans		7	–	6	–	0	366	326	103.61	103.00	102.17	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		8	–	5	–	0	372	323	101.44	100.95	102.52	3
San Francisco		5	–	8	–	0	286	327	95.22	96.48	96.19	3
Seattle		2	–	11	–	0	237	335	92.29	92.89	92.48	3
St. Louis		2	–	11	–	0	169	394	83.23	86.90	84.67	2
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		8	–	5	–	0	354	292	101.26	101.10	102.52	2
New England		8	–	5	–	0	301	276	99.57	101.16	102.79	2
Miami		8	–	5	–	0	269	260	98.26	98.56	102.01	2
Buffalo		6	–	7	–	0	279	275	96.33	95.31	97.37	3
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Pittsburgh		10	–	3	–	0	289	183	108.86	108.01	107.22	2
Baltimore		9	–	4	–	0	316	200	109.24	108.03	106.70	3
Cleveland		4	–	9	–	0	222	275	97.55	97.36	95.03	2
Cincinnati		1	–	11	–	1	154	345	90.35	91.54	88.23	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tennessee		12	–	1	–	0	332	184	110.21	108.83	108.85	2
Indianapolis		9	–	4	–	0	292	253	104.85	105.51	105.92	2
Houston		6	–	7	–	0	306	331	99.15	100.04	100.08	3
Jacksonville		4	–	9	–	0	251	293	97.23	96.78	94.85	3
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		8	–	5	–	0	316	336	96.27	98.09	100.92	2
San Diego		5	–	8	–	0	324	281	102.60	100.41	100.85	2
Oakland		3	–	10	–	0	179	299	90.57	91.98	89.56	2
Kansas City		2	–	11	–	0	233	364	90.15	91.53	90.58	2

 

 

Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book.  When I believe it is okay to play different spreads of the same game, I have put those numbers in parentheses.  If you don’t see different choices, then I only recommend that single spread for that game.

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

NFL Previews-Week 15

 

New Orleans (7-6-0) at Chicago (7-6-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Thursday

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Overcast sky, moderate wind, temperature falling from the upper 20’s to the mid 20’s

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1                   

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Chicago by 2

Vegas:               Chicago by 2.5, 3

Ov/Un:               44.5, 45, 45.5

100 Sims:           Chicago 64 New Orleans 36

Avg Sim Score:  Chicago 27 New Orleans 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Chicago 34 New Orleans 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  New Orleans 30 Chicago 17

 

Strategy:     Chicago -2½, Chicago +7½ in 10-point teaser, Chicago +10½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser  

Drew Brees may be held well under his 300+ yard average in passing yards in this game due to the elements and not because of the Chicago pass defense  On an average day game, Brees might pass for over 400 yards against the Bears.  The Bears’ defensive line should contain the run just enough to force Brees to pass a few times too many in this game.  I expect Brees to go down at least twice, and he may rush some throws and connect with the wrong jersey.

 

The Bears won’t exploit the Saints’ defense like some teams have, but I expect the home team to win this game by more than a field goal.  The home field advantage should be on the high side for this game between two evenly-matched teams.  I’m looking for Chicago to win by a score around 24-20 with Matt Forte having a great night.

 

The loser of this game will not make the playoffs this year, while the winner stays in contention for another week.  With Minnesota playing a tough road game, Chicago could move into a first place tie in the black and blue division with a win.

 

 

Green Bay (5-8-0) at Jacksonville (4-9-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature around 70

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 9

Mean:                  Green Bay by 2

Bias:                    Green Bay by 6

Vegas:               Green Bay by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5  

Ov/Un:               45, 45.5

100 Sims:           Green Bay 58 Jacksonville 42

Avg Sim Score:  Green Bay 25 Jacksonville 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Green Bay 37 Jacksonville 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 20 Green Bay 10

 

Strategy:     Jacksonville +12½ in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +15½ in 13-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 13-point teaser    

Welcome to the Disappointment Bowl.  These two teams are done for the year and have nothing to play for other than pride.  The Jaguars may be as weak as Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Oakland at this point of the season.  Green Bay’s problem is an inconsistent defense, especially against the pass.

 

Jacksonville’s passing game shouldn’t do to the Packers secondary what other teams have done this year, and the running game will be hindered with the absence of Fred Taylor due to an injured thumb.

 

I am looking for this game to be lower scoring than expected but not a defensive struggle.  The Packers should win this road game, but I have no confidence in the certitude.  I’ll call for them to win this one by a score similar to 24-17.

 

 

Detroit (0-13-0) at Indianapolis (9-4-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Cloudy, moderate wind, temperature around 50 if the dome roof is open

 

PiRate:                Indianapolis by 19

Mean:                  Indianapolis by 19

Bias:                    Indianapolis by 20

Vegas:               Indianapolis by 17,18   

Ov/Un:               Indianapolis by 44.5, 45

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 100 Detroit 0

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 34 Detroit 12

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 56 Detroit 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Indianapolis 27 Detroit 24

 

Strategy:     Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

The simulation gave Indianapolis 100 wins in 100 sims.  I haven’t run 100 simulations for that long, but I have to believe it is quite a rarity for it to return 100% success for any NFL Team in a scheduled game.

 

I estimate the Colts to have a 95% chance of winning this game and a 50% chance of winning by double digits.  Peyton Manning and company have the offense up to full speed, and I could easily see the Colts running the table to finish 12-4 and winning their wildcard playoff round.

 

Detroit’s chances to get a win are getting slim.  With New Orleans at home and Green Bay on the road, it may not happen this year.  The Lions could become the first 0-16 team in history. 

 

This week, I am looking for the Colts to win almost effortlessly.  I could see them with a 28-3 lead at the half and then cruising to a 38-10 victory.  I favor the 13-point tease of the Over in this one, as I believe Indianapolis will top 31 points.  Even if they shut out Detroit (with the Lions’ QB problems, it could happen), the Colts can cover 31½ total points by themselves.

 

 

Washington (7-6-0) at Cincinnati (1-11-1)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:                Washington by 7

Mean:                  Washington by 6

Bias:                    Washington by 10

Vegas:               Washington by 6.5, 7, 7.5          

Ov/Un:               36.5, 37

100 Sims:           Washington 82 Cincinnati 18

Avg Sim Score:  Washington 26 Cincinnati 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Washington 38 Cincinnati 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cincinnati 24 Washington 20 (2 times)

 

Strategy:            Over 23½ in 13-point teaser

This is a must-win game for the Redskins.  In all likelihood, they have to win out to qualify as a wildcard team.  They have dropped four out of their last five games, and I doubt they will win their final three.  In fact, this game could be their last win of the season.

 

Cincinnati has mailed it in for the year.  They need major reconstruction, and I think it will be quite some time before the Bengals are competitive again.  The Reds could be in the Major League playoffs before the Bengals make the NFL playoffs.

 

I look for a low-scoring game with Washington winning in boring fashion.  Clinton Portis will probably have a great game after running his mouth all week.

 

I don’t like playing the sides in this one, even in teasers.  While I think the Bengals will struggle to score more than a touchdown in this game, I do see Washington topping 21 points.  That makes the low Over a play in a 13-point teaser.

 

 

Tampa Bay (9-4-0) at Atlanta (8-5-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Atlanta by 1

Mean:                  Atlanta by 2

Bias:                    Atlanta by 1

Vegas:                Atlanta by 2.5, 3  

Ov/Un:               44.5, 45

100 Sims:           Atlanta 53 Tampa Bay 47

Avg Sim Score:  Atlanta 23 Tampa Bay 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Atlanta 28 Tampa Bay 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tampa Bay 23 Atlanta 14

(note: 7 sims went to OT)

 

Strategy:     Under 58 in 13-point teaser, Over 31.5 in 13-point teaser

This should be a great game, possibly one of the five best games of the regular season.  Both teams are coming off tough divisional losses.  The winner of this game will hold on strong to the top of the wildcard playoff bubble, while the loser will join a host of other teams in a mix at the bottom of the bubble.

 

Matt Ryan had his worst game when these two met in St. Petersburg in September.  I expect a much better effort this time out, and I also expect Michael Turner to break off a couple of 10+ yard runs.

 

This game will be close, and I believe both teams will score in the 20’s.  The best plays here are to sandwich the expected 40-50 point total with a teasing of both the Over and Under.

 

 

San Francisco (5-8-0) at Miami (8-5-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers likely, moderate wind, temperature in the mid to upper 70’s

 

PiRate:                Miami by 5

Mean:                  Miami by 4

Bias:                    Miami by 8

Vegas:               Miami by 6.5, 7  

Ov/Un:               41.5, 42

100 Sims:           Miami 57 San Francisco 43

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 22 San Francisco 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27 San Francisco 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Francisco 21 Miami 13

 

Strategy:            Under 55 in 13-point teaser

This one is a hard one to figure out.  The 49ers are playing really good ball even though it is too late to make the playoffs.  The Dolphins are in the hunt for both a wildcard spot and divisional championship.  Obviously, this is a critical game for Miami, and a loss would put them in serious jeopardy in the AFC playoff hunt.

 

Miami has quietly won six of seven games, and I think they are quietly going to win their next two games to set up a monumental season finale against the Jets in The Meadowlands.

 

As for this game, I expect it to be a hard-fought defensive battle.  I cannot say for sure that Miami can cover at 6½ or 7 points, but I do believe both teams will score fewer than 25 points.  Thus, teasing the Over is my selection for this game.

 

Seattle (2-11-0) at St. Louis (2-11-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Seattle by 7

Mean:                  Seattle by 4

Bias:                    Seattle by 6

Vegas:               Seattle by 3

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5  

100 Sims:           Seattle 61 St. Louis 39

Avg Sim Score:  Seattle 26 St. Louis 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Seattle 24 St. Louis 3

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 17 Seattle 10

 

Strategy:     St. Louis +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser, Under 56½ in 13-point teaser

How much would you pay for tickets to this game?  You might find someone willing to pay you to take their ticket.  It was expected that St. Louis would be where they are at this point in the season, but Seattle was supposed to be about 9-4 after 13 games.  Injuries ruined their season, and those injuries continue to plague the Seahawks.  Don’t expect Matt Hasselbeck to play in this game.  Seneca Wallace isn’t totally healthy, but he’ll likely start this game.

 

The Rams should never be expected to win a game before it starts, even if they are hosting Detroit or Cincinnati.  I do expect them to lose by no more than 14 points if at all, so I can recommend taking St. Louis in a 13-point teaser.  My guess at the total score for this game is something like 23-21, which places that in the middle between the extremes of a 13-point teaser.

 

 

Buffalo (6-7-0) at New York Jets (8-5-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 7

Mean:                 Jets by 8

Bias:                    Jets by 7

Vegas:                Jets by 7, 7.5

Ov/Un:               41

100 Sims:           Jets 73 Buffalo 27

Avg Sim Score:  Jets 32 Buffalo 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Jets 48 Buffalo 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 28 Jets 20

 

Strategy:     Jets +3 in 10-point teaser, Jets +6 in 13-point teaser, Over 28 in 13-point teaser

Buffalo started 5-0, and the Bills have since gone 1-7.  Their season is done, and Dick Jauron has done nothing to earn his extension.

 

The Jets can ill afford to lose three games in a row and make the playoffs in the highly competitive AFC.  It looks like 10-6 will be the minimum record for the successful wildcard qualifiers.  A loss in this game just may be too much to overcome.  The Jets won handily in Buffalo six weeks ago, and they should win again this week.  Thus, I like playing New York on both 10 and 13-point teasers.  The 13-point tease of the Over should win before halftime, as I see 50 total points being scored in this game.

 

 

Tennessee (12-1-0) at Houston (6-7-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of thunderstorms, light wind, temperature in the mid 70’s

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 8

Mean:                 Tennessee by 6

Bias:                    Tennessee by 6

Vegas:                Tennessee by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               44.5, 45

100 Sims:           Tennessee 66 Houston 34

Avg Sim Score:  Tennessee 29 Houston 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tennessee 33 Houston 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Houston 28 Tennessee 16

 

Strategy:     Houston +13½ in 10-point teaser, Houston +16½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser, Under 58 (or 57½) in 13-point teaser     

This is a trap game for sure.  Even though the Texans cannot qualify for the playoffs this year, they still have much to play for, like their first ever winning season.  That September hurricane probably cost them a shot at the playoffs, for Houston might be 8-5 or 9-4 instead of 6-7 if it weren’t for all the troubles they endured in September.

 

In the first meeting of these two teams, Tennessee won by 19 points, but the game was much closer than the score indicated.  The Titans led 24-12 with Houston near the Tennessee goal line, when Titan CB Cortland Finnegan picked off a Matt Schaub pass and returned it 99 yards for a touchdown.

 

The Texans haven’t forgotten that game, nor have they forgotten that they had success running the ball against the Tennessee defense.  Steve Slaton topped 100 yards in that game.

 

Tennessee could wrap up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win Sunday.  It won’t be easy, and I think they have little more than a 50-55% chance of winning.  The Titans are the Texans’ biggest rival for obvious reasons, and they would like nothing more than to spoil that clinching chance for Tennessee.

 

I believe this game will be higher scoring than expected.  Tennessee has given up more than 21 points only once this year, and that was their lone loss.  I believe Houston will become the second opponent to top 21 points, but I’m not sure it will be enough to win the game.

 

I’m going with Tennessee to win and clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but I don’t think they will win by much.

 

 

Pittsburgh (10-3-0) at Baltimore (9-4-0)

Time:           3:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 3

Mean:                  Baltimore by 3

Bias:                    Baltimore by 2

Vegas:               Baltimore by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5

Ov/Un:               34, 34.5

100 Sims:           Baltimore 50 Pittsburgh 50

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 20 Pittsburgh 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 17 Pittsburgh 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Pittsburgh 20 Baltimore 7

 

Strategy:     Baltimore -1, Baltimore +9 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +12 in 13-point teaser, Pittsburgh +15½  (14, 14½, or 15) in 13-point teaser, Over 21 in 13-point teaser, Under 47 in 13-point teaser

This is the top game of the day, and it will look like one of those Packers-Vikings games from the mid to late 1960’s.  The winner could very well score just 10 points in this game, although I am expecting Baltimore to score at least 17 points and win the game.

 

The Steelers will clinch the AFC North with a win, and if Baltimore wins, the Steelers would still hold the tie-breaker edge over the Ravens by virtue of a one-game edge in AFC games (the 4^th tie-breaker scenario). 

 

Both teams face a tough opponent on the road next week, and this game takes on even greater importance.  If Baltimore wins this week, and both teams lose next week, then it will take the 5^th tiebreaking rule to separate the two.  That one is strength of victory, and it could still leave them tied.  Tiebreaker number six is strength of schedule, and yes, if New England and San Diego were to lose a few more games than Miami and Oakland, this could be a push as well.  Tiebreaker numbers seven through 11 would have to decide it, because tiebreaker number 12 is a coin flip.  With the NFL having so many financial troubles and with layoffs announced, they may not have the coin to make that flip and Bank of America won’t lend one to them.

 

Seriously, I look for Baltimore to play just a little more inspired and emerge with a 17-10 victory.  Both teams will make the playoffs if they are 10-4 after this game.  If Pittsburgh should find a way to win, then next week’s game at Tennessee could be for number one in the conference.

 

Denver (8-5-0) at Carolina (10-3-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:                Carolina by 11

Mean:                 Carolina by 9

Bias:                   Carolina by 8

Vegas:               Carolina by 7, 7.5, 9

Ov/Un:               47, 47.5, 48

100 Sims:           Carolina 54 Denver 46

Avg Sim Score:  Carolina 29 Denver 28

Outlier 1a Sim:  Carolina 45 Denver 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Denver 41 Carolina 24

 

Strategy:            Denver +19 in 10-point teaser, Denver +22 in 13-point teaser, Over 34 (34½ or 35) in 13-point teaser

It looked like the Broncos were going to swoon right out of the top spot in the AFC West after losing four of five earlier this year.  However, San Diego kept finding ways to lose, and now the Broncos have recovered as of late, winning four of five including two big road victories.

 

The time is right for the Panthers to bounce a little and come out flat in a game against a team capable of beating them in Charlotte.  Carolina played brilliantly, especially on offense, against Tampa Bay Monday night, but I don’t believe their running game will come close to repeating the production in that game.  Denver is by no means a run-stopping team, but they will concentrate their efforts on stopping the two-headed monster of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  Jake Delhomme will have to pass the ball for the Panthers to win. 

 

I expect this to be a high scoring game.  Jay Cutler will not have Peyton Hillis available for this game, so I expect the Broncos will throw the ball 40 times and pick up more than 300 yards.

 

This game could see more than 135 scrimmage plays, and that should lead to both teams topping 24 points.  I like teasing the Over here, as I just cannot see the offenses being stopped all day, especially with this game set to be played in ideal football weather.

 

 

San Diego (5-8-0) at Kansas City (2-11-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of showers, moderate wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 10

Mean:                 San Diego by 7

Bias:                   San Diego by 8

Vegas:                San Diego by 4.5, 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               45, 45.5, 46, 46.5

100 Sims:           Kansas City 52 San Diego 48

Avg Sim Score:  Kansas City 25 San Diego 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Kansas City 28 San Diego 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Diego 40 Kansas City 20

 

Strategy:            Kansas City +15½ (15, 14½) in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +18½ (18, 17½) in 13-point teaser, Under 59½ (59, 58½) in 13-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser

Contrary to what the Charger brass have stated publicly, I believe this is going to be the final season for Coach Norv Turner in San Diego.  His team was robbed in that game in Denver, and that wasn’t his fault.  However, the way they reacted after that game and failed to recover is his fault.  He could even be shown the door Monday if San Diego loses to the lowly Chiefs.

 

Kansas City is not a pushover.  Just ask Denver after the Broncos had to come from behind to win at Invesco Field and avoid the sweep.  Five weeks ago at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego escaped with a 20-19 win over Kansas City.

 

Note that the simulator gives Kansas City a 52% chance to win this game even though the Chargers are favored by more than a field goal.  I like those odds, and I am taking Kansas City in the teasers because of that.

 

Minnesota (8-5-0) at Arizona (8-5-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low 60’s

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 1

Mean:                 Tossup

Bias:                   Arizona by 1

Vegas:                Arizona by 3   

Ov/Un:               47.5, 48

100 Sims:           Arizona 59 Minnesota 41

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 33 Minnesota 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 52 Minnesota 31

Outlier 1b Sim:  Minnesota 27 Arizona 17

 

Strategy:     Over 34 ½ (35) in 13-point teaser

This is another one of those great NFC games this week.  While Arizona has already clinched their division, the Cardinals can still get a first round bye if they win out and Carolina and Tampa Bay lose enough games.

 

Minnesota holds a tiny one game edge over Chicago, and they have the toughest final three games of any of the NFC contenders.  The Vikings must close against the Falcons and Giants after this game.

 

I give the Cardinals a very slight advantage in this game, but I find no value in any plays on sides in this game.  My only inclination is to tease the Over.  I cannot see Minnesota’s defense holding Kurt Warner and company at bay very often, and I cannot see Arizona stopping Adrian Peterson very often.  Tarvaris Jackson gets another chance to show he belongs in the NFL, as Gus Frerotte doesn’t appear likely to play. 

 

 

New England (8-5-0) at Oakland (3-10-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                New England by 7

Mean:                  New England by 8

Bias:                    New England by 11

Vegas:               New England by 7

Ov/Un:               39,40

100 Sims:           New England 89 Oakland 11

Avg Sim Score:  New England 24 Oakland 15

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 37 Oakland 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 21 New England 16

 

Strategy:     Under 53 (52) in 13-point teaser

The Patriots have to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt.  If they lose to the pitiful Raiders, they may just fold up.  It’s not going to be easy for Coach Bill Belichick’s team this week.  Quarterback Matt Cassel left the team following the passing of his father.  He may not be ready to play Sunday.  Rookie Kevin O’Connell would start in his place, and even the Raiders’ anemic defense would give him fits.

 

Oakland isn’t healthy by any means, and I mean physically as well as mentally.  Quarterback JaMarcus Russell has a gimpy ankle, and he hasn’t produced all that much when he has been healthy.  Former Raider quarterback Rich Gannon openly stated that he does not think Russell has a work ethic conducive to being a winner in this league.

 

I expect this to be a low scoring game if Cassel is not on hand.  The totals line has dropped, and I am sure it will drop after this blog story comes out.  I am playing the Under in a 13-point teaser while I can get that number at 53 (or 52) points because I believe this will be a 35 to 45-point game.

 

New York Giants (11-2-0) at Dallas (8-5-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature falling from the upper to mid 60’s

                    

PiRate:                Giants by 6

Mean:                  Giants by 5

Bias:                    Giants by 3

Vegas:               Dallas by 2.5, 3

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5, 45

100 Sims:           Giants 58 Dallas 42

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 23 Dallas 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 28 Dallas 12

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 24 Giants 10

 

Strategy:            Giants +13 in 10-point teaser, Giants +16 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser

Dallas should be favored in this game, and the betting public believes that as well.  The simulator has no biases, and it believes the Giants have a 58% chance of winning this game.  All three of my computer ratings agree with the simulator and favor New York by six, five, and three points.  That data is good enough for me to take the Giants in both 10 and 13-point teasers.

 

Almost all 100 simulations of this game produced scores with total points between 35 and 55.  So, I like playing both sides in 13-point teasers.

 

I think New York will pull off the mild upset and force Dallas into must-win situations their final two weeks.  The victory may hurt New York down the stretch, as this game should be very physical.  Without running back Brandon Jacobs, there’s a chance Eli Manning could see a heavier pass rush and possibly suffer an injury in this game.  With Carolina coming up next on the schedule and Minnesota probably needing a win in week 17, the Giants could trip up as the season concludes.  They need this game more than any of the other teams that have already clinched their division.  If they lose this one to fall to 11-3, they could easily lose their last two as well.

 

Dallas could also lose their final three games and miss out on the playoffs.  Baltimore and Philadelphia are two tough hombres as the season winds down.  This is probably a must-win game for the team and Coach Wade Phillips.  I’m guessing with a loss, Dallas is on the outside looking in, and Coach Phillips is soon to be on the unemployment line.

 

Cleveland (4-9-0) at Philadelphia (7-5-1)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature holding steady in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 12  

Mean:                  Philadelphia by 10

Bias:                    Philadelphia by 13

Vegas:                Philadelphia by 14, 14.5, 15

Ov/Un:               38.5, 39

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 90 Cleveland 10

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 29 Cleveland 13

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 44 Cleveland 6

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 28 Philadelphia 24

 

Strategy:     Over 28½ (29) in 10-point teaser, Over 25½ (26) in 13-point teaser 

Cleveland failed to show up last week in Nashville, and now they face a hungry and mad Eagles team ready to claw them to pieces.

 

Since the tie debacle with Cincinnati and a terrible follow-up with Baltimore, Philadelphia has been a terror on the gridiron.  The Eagles destroyed Arizona and then won at the Giants.  They have a clear path to a 10-5-1 season, and I think they will bring their A-game this week to the 21^st Century version of the Mistake on the Lake known as Browns Stadium.

 

I don’t like the line in this game, but I do like the totals.  Philadelphia should top 24 points in this one, so I see both the 10 and 13-point teasers as being strong plays.  Remember that almost every Monday night game this year has been an offensive shootout.  I just cannot see the Browns slowing Donovan McNabb and company much if at all.

 

 

Hurray For A Good Week

 

I played it conservatively last week and stuck with what I had studied the most-playing teasers with totals instead of sides.  It produced a 5-2 record for the week and just missed by a whisker of going 7-0 (one game of each losing teaser just missed).  The return on the $700 “wagered” was $950 for a nice profit of $250 and ROI of 35.7%.

 

For the season, the record against the spread is now 94-75-7, which computes to 55.6%.  I’m under 60%, where I was for most of this season, but it least we are headed back up again.

 

I don’t really like most of the games this week insofar as picking point spread winners.  This is going to be a fun week for watching some big games.  I will stay with my minimalist view for another week and try to find the top values rather than go for quantity.

 

Here are my wagers for week 15 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

ALL 5 WAGERS = 13-POINT TEASERS

 

For those not familiar with a 13-point teaser, you can move the lines 13 points in your favor, but you must play a four-game parlay and all four games must win to win the wager.  You play at odds of 10-13, meaning you put up $13 for every $10 the book puts up.

 

1.    New Orleans & Chicago OVER 31½

       Green Bay & Jacksonville OVER 32

       Detroit & Indianapolis OVER 31½

       Washington & Cincinnati OVER 23½

 

2.    Tampa Bay & Atlanta OVER 31½

       San Francisco & Miami UNDER 55

       Buffalo & NY Jets OVER 28

       Tennessee & Houston UNDER 58

 

3.    Pittsburgh & Baltimore OVER 21

       Denver & Carolina OVER 34

       San Diego & Kansas City UNDER 59½

       New England & Oakland UNDER 53

 

4.    Seattle & St. Louis OVER 30

       Tennessee & Houston OVER 31½

       Minnesota & Arizona OVER 35

       NY Giants & Dallas UNDER 58

 

5.    Seattle & St. Louis UNDER 56½

       Pittsburgh & Baltimore OVER 21

       NY Giants & Dallas OVER 31

       Philadelphia & Cleveland OVER 25½   

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week 14 NFL Previews: December 4-8, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 14

Will It Be Another Topsy-Turvy Weekend?

 

Who woulda thunk it?  The Broncos clobbered the Jets at the Meadowlands.  San Francisco won at Buffalo.  Cleveland almost beat Indianapolis.  The Steelers blew New England out in Foxboro.  I don’t even want to list how poorly my record was in the selections.  Suffice it to say, it was brutal.

 

Starting this week, I am changing the coverage a little bit.  I have placed the current teams in the Pro Football Computer Simulator and simulated each game 100 times.  I figure the simulator may have better luck at picking the winners than me.  What you will see in each game preview is the number of games out of the 100 simulations each team won, the average score, the extreme scores in both directions, and the extreme total points scored in both directions.  The weather has also been simulated.  If the forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers, then 30 of the simulations had wet field conditions. 

 

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

 

Current NFL Standings
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		11	–	1	–	0	352	206	110.99	110.26	108.82	2
Dallas		8	–	4	–	0	299	260	102.24	102.54	104.33	2
Washington		7	–	5	–	0	208	222	99.35	99.60	100.76	2
Philadelphia		6	–	5	–	1	319	249	106.51	104.08	103.69	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Minnesota		7	–	5	–	0	287	260	104.10	103.89	103.77	2
Chicago		6	–	6	–	0	281	268	101.43	100.66	101.39	2
Green Bay		5	–	7	–	0	334	295	105.13	103.02	101.41	2
Detroit		0	–	12	–	0	203	393	86.33	89.17	85.28	3
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tampa Bay		9	–	3	–	0	280	200	106.14	104.70	106.14	2
Carolina		9	–	3	–	0	285	231	104.51	103.12	105.50	2
Atlanta		8	–	4	–	0	298	242	104.52	103.34	103.15	2
New Orleans		6	–	6	–	0	337	301	103.34	102.65	101.57	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		7	–	5	–	0	338	313	100.78	101.15	101.36	3
San Francisco		4	–	8	–	0	262	313	93.72	95.48	95.81	3
Seattle		2	–	10	–	0	216	311	91.84	93.64	93.27	3
St. Louis		2	–	10	–	0	159	360	83.62	87.97	88.09	2
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		8	–	4	–	0	340	268	102.78	102.82	103.29	2
New England		7	–	5	–	0	277	255	99.85	101.22	101.79	2
Miami		7	–	5	–	0	253	257	97.46	97.61	100.59	2
Buffalo		6	–	6	–	0	276	259	97.28	97.29	99.29	3
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Pittsburgh		9	–	3	–	0	269	170	108.99	106.90	107.15	2
Baltimore		8	–	4	–	0	292	190	109.14	107.58	106.12	3
Cleveland		4	–	8	–	0	213	247	98.35	97.56	95.36	2
Cincinnati		1	–	10	–	1	151	310	91.98	92.52	90.07	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tennessee		11	–	1	–	0	304	175	109.77	107.45	108.02	2
Indianapolis		8	–	4	–	0	257	250	103.28	103.37	104.71	2
Houston		5	–	7	–	0	282	310	98.33	99.31	99.30	3
Jacksonville		4	–	8	–	0	241	270	97.81	97.65	97.07	3
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		7	–	5	–	0	292	319	96.59	97.74	101.04	2
San Diego		4	–	8	–	0	290	274	101.44	99.65	98.79	2
Oakland		3	–	9	–	0	172	265	91.85	93.46	91.44	2
Kansas City		2	–	10	–	0	216	340	90.51	92.66	91.61	2

 

 

Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book.  I leave it to you to find out the book in question.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

NFL Previews-Week 14

 

Oakland (3-9-0) at San Diego (4-8-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Thursday

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from the low 60’s to the upper 50’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 12                    

Mean:                  San Diego by 8

Bias:                    San Diego by 9

Vegas:               San Diego by 9,9.5, 10, 10.5

Ov/Un:               42, 42.5

100 Sims:           San Diego 83  Oakland 17

Avg Sim Score:  San Diego 29.6  Oakland 15.1

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Diego 48  Oakland 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 24  San Diego 14

 

Strategy:            Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

The Raiders lost at home to Kansas City last week after winning big at Denver the week before.  San Diego is slowly rotting away and appears out of the playoff picture.  I don’t expect a stellar effort from either side, but I do expect enough shenanigans due to national TV exposure for there to be some offensive fireworks.  I believe this game should see both teams top 17 points, so teasing the Over is how to play this one.

 

 

Atlanta (7-5-0) at New Orleans (6-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                New Orleans by 1

Mean:                  New Orleans by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

Vegas:               New Orleans by 3    

Ov/Un:               51, 51.5, 52

100 Sims:           New Orleans 57  Atlanta 43

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 27.9  Atlanta 24.5

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 45  Atlanta 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Atlanta 31  New Orleans 20

 

Strategy:            Over 41 in 10-point teaser, Over 38 in 13-point teaser, Under 65 in 13-point teaser

This will be an exciting game, and I expect both teams to score 21 or more points.  Drew Brees was not on target last week, and the Saints paid for it with a loss.  The Falcons won the first meeting in Atlanta, and this is a must-win for New Orleans.  If the dirty birds win, the Saints can go marching away from the playoffs.  I look for New Orleans to win the game and score 24-34 points.  They’ve given up 28 points per game in their last six contests, so I really like teasing the Over in this game.  Using another book’s high totals number, the Under 65 is enticing.  I am not as excited as the Over, but 65 points are asking a lot from both teams.  Think about a 35-28 game; that’s still not enough to sink us.  Of course, this could be a 38-35 game, so use this one with caution.  My best guess is 28-24 Saints.

 

 

Philadelphia (6-5-1) at New York Giants (11-1)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Intermittent snow showers, light to moderate winds, temperature in the mid to upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Giants by 6

Mean:                  Giants by 8

Bias:                    Giants by 7

Vegas:               Giants by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44

100 Sims:           Giants 89  Philadelphia 11

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 30.2  Philadelphia 22.6

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 44  Philadelphia 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Philadelphia 27  Giants 24 (2 games)

 

Strategy:            Over 33 in 10-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser

Four weeks ago, these teams hooked up in a fantastic game in Philadelphia with the Giants winning 36-31.  The Eagles need this game to have a realistic shot at a wildcard berth.  If they can pull off the upset, I believe they will be no worse than 9-6-1 and could possibly run the table to finish 10-5-1.  If they lose, they could easily finish 8-7-1 or worse, and that won’t get them into the postseason.

 

The Giants could be the next repeat Super Bowl Champion.  In the past, the second championship team is usually a better defensive team than the prior year’s team.  It’s no different with New York, but the Eagles have the talent to score points on them.

 

For what it’s worth, 94 of the 100 simulations on this game produced results with a total score of 35 and above.  I will go with the simulator and call for a 30-21 score in favor of the Giants; that means, I’m teasing the Over in this one.

 

 

Jacksonville (4-8-0) at Chicago (6-6-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in mid 20’s

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 6

Mean:                  Chicago by 5

Bias:                    Chicago by 6

Vegas:               Chicago by 6.5         

Ov/Un:               39.5, 40, 40.5

100 Sims:           Chicago 79  Jacksonville 21

Avg Sim Score:  Chicago 25.3  Jacksonville 16.9

Outlier 1a Sim:  Chicago 37  Jacksonville 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 24 Chicago 17

 

Strategy:            Over 26½ in 13-point teaser

This game scares me this week.  Both teams are headed in the wrong direction.  Chicago is still alive in the mediocre NFC North, where a 9-7 record could win the division.  The Jaguars are done for the season and have little to play for.  Their offense has continued to misfire, as the Jags have scored less than 20 points in five of the last six games (that one offensive outburst came against Detroit).

 

The weather should be very Chicago-like for December, and I don’t think the Jags will like it very much.  I look for the Bears to have their way this week, but I am worried that the elements could make it a better day for the defenses.  I am looking at a 20-10 win for Chicago, and that’s just enough to consider playing the Over in a 13-point teaser.  However, I’m not married to this game.

 

 

Minnesota (7-5-0) at Detroit (0-12-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Minnesota by 15

Mean:                  Minnesota by 12

Bias:                    Minnesota by 15

Vegas:                Minnesota by 7.5, 8, 9  

Ov/Un:               45, 46.5

100 Sims:           Minnesota 96  Detroit 4

Avg Sim Score:  Minnesota 30.2  Detroit 14.4

Outlier 1a Sim:  Minnesota 51  Detroit 12

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 24  Minnesota 20

 

Strategy:            Minnesota +5½ in 13-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser       

I thought that Detroit would eventually put it all together and pull off a win or two this year.  I still believe they might win a game before the season ends, and this is a week where they may believe they can win.  The Lions only lost to Minnesota 12-10 the first time, and they will have the confidence to go out there and play unlike an 0-12 team.

 

Detroit has the benefit of three extra preparation days, while Minnesota is coming off a Sunday night game.  The intangibles weigh heavily in favor of the Lions.  I still will pick the Vikings to win or at least lose by five or fewer points.  If Detroit pulls off the upset, I expect it to be by a field goal or less with the game decided at the very end. 

 

Minnesota’s defense is missing some key components, and I think Detroit will score 17-21 points in this game.  The Vikings should be able to run the ball for 150+ yards, and that should allow Gus Frerotte to put 20 points on the board.  Thus, I like teasing the Over in this game.

 

 

Houston (5-7-0) at Green Bay (5-7-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the mid to upper teens

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 9

Mean:                  Green Bay by 6

Bias:                    Green Bay by 4

Vegas:               Green Bay by 6  

Ov/Un:               47, 47.5

100 Sims:           Houston 52  Green Bay 48

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 32.3  Green Bay 31.8

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 47  Green Bay 28

Outlier 1b Sim:  Green Bay 30  Houston 14

 

Strategy:            Over 34½ in 13-point teaser

Both teams are 5-7, but the similarities end there.  Houston is 5-7 and on the rise, while Green Bay is 5-7 and on the decline.  The Packers have dropped four out of their last five games to fall two games in back of division-leading Minnesota.  The Texans have won five of eight after starting 0-3. 

 

Both of these teams could top 30 points against the opposition defense, but the weather could be a big factor this week.  With temperatures expected to be between 15 and 19 degrees over the course of the afternoon, Houston may not be ready to handle the elements.  Green Bay still has a remote shot at running the table and finishing 9-7 and winning the division.  Houston has no chance of getting into the playoffs.  In a last-ditch, must-win game, I expect Green Bay to win this game, but my safe choice here is to take the Over in a 13-point teaser.  Even with a frozen tundra playing surface, these teams should combine for at least 45 points and as many as 70.

 

 

Cleveland (4-8-0) at Tennessee (11-1-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 13

Mean:                  Tennessee by 12

Bias:                    Tennessee by 15

Vegas:               Tennessee by 13.5, 14, 15

Ov/Un:               37.5, 38  

100 Sims:           Tennessee 88  Cleveland 12

Avg Sim Score:  Tennessee 30.7  Cleveland 19.4

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tennessee 41  Cleveland 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 28  Tennessee 23

 

Strategy:            Cleveland +28 in 13-point teaser, Over 24 ½ in 13-point teaser

Cleveland has very little left to play for this year.  The Browns are now down to their third quarterback in Ken Dorsey, and they won’t have Kellen Winslow for this game as well.  Their defense has a tough time stopping the run.

 

Tennessee will run the ball until Cleveland can stop it, and I don’t expect the Browns to consistently stop it.  The Titans will throw a host of blitzes and dogs at Dorsey, and it should be a long day for the Cleveland attack.

 

The weather will be more like Cleveland than Nashville, so that might help the Browns a little.  What I expect to help the Browns even more is the possibility that Titan Coach Jeff Fisher may choose to play overly conservative and possibly remove Kerry Collins if Tennessee is up by three touchdowns in the third quarter.

 

I believe the Titans will win this game with a score similar to 27-10.  It’s hard to ask them to win by more than four touchdowns, so I like the Browns as part of a 13-point teaser.  It’s not asking much to cover 24½ points, so I like teasing the Over.

 

One caveat to remember:  Cleveland beat the Giants by three touchdowns, and the Browns would like nothing more than to beat the top team in the AFC to make it a wonderful double. 

 

 

Cincinnati (1-10-1) at Indianapolis (8-4-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Roof will be closed

 

PiRate:                Indianapolis by 13

Mean:                 Indianapolis by 13

Bias:                    Indianapolis by 17

Vegas:                Indianapolis by 13.5, 14, 15

Ov/Un:               41.5, 42, 42,5

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 98  Cincinnati 2

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 34.7  Cincinnati 13.8

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 49  Cincinnati 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cincinnati 27  Indianapolis 24

 

Strategy:            Indianapolis -½ in a 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in a 13-point teaser  

Indianapolis is on a roll, and I expect them to keep winning in the regular season.  They could easily run the table and finish 12-4 on a nine-game winning streak.

 

Cincinnati has nothing left to play for.  The team is rife with dissension, and I expect major changes in the off-season.  I am surprised that the simulator even had them winning one of the 100 simulations.  The two wins it gave the Bengals were by one and three points.

 

I am going to have faith in the simulator this week and believe that Indy has a 98% chance of winning the game.  So, that tells me to take the Peyton Manning and company as part of a 13-point teaser.  I expect the Colts to top 28 points with plenty of time left in the game, so even if the Bengals lay a goose egg on the scoreboard, this game should see at least 30 points scored.

 

 

Kansas City (2-10-0) at Denver (7-5-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Denver by 8

Mean:                 Denver by 7

Bias:                    Denver by 11

Vegas:                Denver by 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 10 

Ov/Un:               48, 48.5, 49

100 Sims:           Denver 79  Kansas City 21

Avg Sim Score:  Denver 33.0  Kansas City 20.3

Outlier 1a Sim:  Denver 55  Kansas City 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 31  Denver 24

 

Strategy:            Over 35 in 13-point teaser

Denver is so unpredictable.  They lost at Kansas City earlier in the season.  They lost at home to Oakland.  Yet, they won on the road against the Jets and won at Atlanta.

 

Kansas City is coming off a road win over rival Oakland, and the Chiefs have the confidence in knowing they stopped Jay Cutler once before.

 

My guess here is that the Chiefs will keep this game close enough to have a chance to win in the fourth quarter, but they will come up a bit short.  I think they will top 17 points for sure and should top 20.  Denver will score 21 to 31 points, so once again, I like teasing the Over as well as taking the revenge-mindful Broncos as a dog in a 13-point teaser.

 

 

Miami (7-5-0) vs. Buffalo (6-6-0) at Toronto

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Buffalo by 1

Mean:                  Buffalo by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

Vegas:               Buffalo by 0, 1, 1.5

Ov/Un:               42, 42.5

100 Sims:           Miami 56  Buffalo 44

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 24.7  Buffalo 22.1

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 38  Buffalo 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 27  Miami 14

 

Strategy:            Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

So you want to see a really good game this week, eh?  You like a good, hard-fought game in the trenches, eh?  Then head north of the border to beautiful Toronto and catch this key game with major playoff implications.

 

The thing I like most about games played in unusual places is that they frequently take on the traits of Monday night games.  They usually end up being higher scoring than a typical game.

 

Miami beat the Bills 25-16 at Dolphins Stadium in October, and if this game were in Buffalo, I would pick the Bills to even the score.

 

The Rogers Centre (Skydome) is maybe worth one point of home advantage for Buffalo.  This game is a tossup, but I expect both teams to score 17 points or more.  That gives us a play in the teasers.

 

 

New York Jets (8-4-0) at San Francisco (4-8-0)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature near 60

 

PiRate:                Jets by 6

Mean:                  Jets by 4

Bias:                    Jets by 4

Vegas:               Jets by 3.5, 4      

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

100 Sims:           Jets 62  San Francisco 38

Avg Sim Score:  Jets 25.1  San Francisco 20.4

Outlier 1a Sim:  Jets 49  San Francisco 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Francisco 20  Jets 14

 

Strategy:            Over 31 in 13-point teaser

I don’t really like any plays in this game this week.  What can we make of the 49ers going to Buffalo and winning handily?  What can we make of the Jets crashing at home against Denver’s marginally decent defense?

 

I would normally call for San Francisco to bounce and stink up the joint this week, while Brett Favre rebounds with a big day.  However, since Mike Singletary took over control of Frisco, the 49ers have been a different team.  They could be on the verge of living up to their expectations, albeit too late to get them into the playoffs.

 

I believe this game will be close, and San Francisco has a decent shot at the upset-maybe as much as a 55% chance.  If you are a real aggressive player, then you might consider taking the 49ers at +4 or even at +175 in a money line play.  I choose to stick with a teasing of the Over in this one.  Look for the score to be close with both teams topping 17 points.  31 points isn’t asking much in this one.

 

 

New England (7-5-0) at Seattle (2-10-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, light wind, temperature in the mid to upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                New England by 5

Mean:                 New England by 5

Bias:                   New England by 6

Vegas:                New England by 4.5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5

100 Sims:           New England 60  Seattle 40

Avg Sim Score:  New England 23.1  Seattle 17.7

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 37  Seattle 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 24  New England 13

 

Strategy:            Over 30 in 13-point teaser

If you have read this far, you have obviously noted the trend I am pointing to this week.  In a large majority of games this year, the teams have scored more than 13 points below the totals line.  In a small majority of games this year, the teams have scored less than 13 points above the totals line.  Thus, using the totals by playing the Over in 13-point teasers has a high chance of winning if you can pick the correct four games.

 

I have no desire to pick a winner in this game.  The Patriots are making a 3000-mile trek across three time zones to take on a wounded Seahawks team in adverse weather conditions.  New England is 10-14 points better than Seattle on a neutral field in ideal weather conditions.  The long distance and possible strong rain could neutralize most of that advantage.

 

I am tempted to call for this game to be very low scoring with the Patriots struggling to win 14-13.  I don’t think this game will see 45 points scored, and I am not all that sure that 35 total points will be scored.  30 points can be satisfied at 17-14 or 21-10.  It’s a little bit of a gamble, but I think 31 total points can be scored in this game, even if it is played in a monsoon.  A key turnover could lead to a defense scoring in this one.

 

 

Dallas (8-4-0) at Pittsburgh (9-3-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Snow showers, strong wind, temperature falling from around 30 to the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Pittsburgh by 9

Mean:                 Pittsburgh by 6

Bias:                   Pittsburgh by 5

Vegas:                Pittsburgh by 2.5, 3   

Ov/Un:               40, 40.5, 41

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 55  Dallas 45

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 24.6  Dallas 22.8

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 30  Dallas 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 28  Pittsburgh 21

 

Strategy:            Over 30 in a 10-point teaser, Over 27 in a 13-point teaser

There are five really big games this week, and this one may be the best of the lot.  These teams are playing their best ball of the season, and it should make for a great game.  An added bonus in this one is the fact that both teams have key intra-division games the following week.  If either or both teams’ players subconsciously look ahead to their big games next week, I expect it to affect their defenses more than their offenses.  Thus, if there is any intangible to take from the fact that Dallas must play the Giants and Pittsburgh must play Baltimore next week, it should lead to more points being scored in this game.

 

Remember that Dallas has enjoyed an extra three days off for this game.  However, in the past, the Cowboys have tended to under perform following their Thanksgiving game.

 

I believe the Steelers will win this game, and they will hold Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, and company below 20 points.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers won by more than a touchdown, but I feel more comfortable calling for them to win by a field goal.  The score could be 20-17, but I don’t expect it to be any lower scoring than that.

 

 

St. Louis (2-10-0) at Arizona (7-5-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Roof likely closed

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 20

Mean:                  Arizona by 16

Bias:                    Arizona by 16

Vegas:               Arizona by 14

Ov/Un:               48, 48.5

100 Sims:           Arizona 91  St. Louis 9

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 37.6  St. Louis 17.8

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 62  St. Louis 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 27  Arizona 24

 

Strategy:            Under 58½ in a 10-point teaser, Under 61½ in a 13-point teaser

This is one of the few games where I like teasing the Under as opposed to the Over.  St. Louis shouldn’t contribute too many points in this game.  The Rams scored just 13 points at home against the Cardinals in their first meeting, and they have failed to score 17 points for six consecutive weeks.

 

Arizona has dropped two games in a row to tough NFC East opponents.  The Cardinals have been outscored in their six games since their bye week.  They may feel some heat headed into this game, as their lead over San Francisco, while comfortable, is not insurmountable.  If they lose this game, and SF beats the Jets, who knows what may happen in the final three weeks?

 

It only takes a win this week coupled with a Jets win in the Bay for the Cardinals to clinch the NFC West.  I believe there’s a strong chance it will happen.  The Cardinals cannot lose this game.  I’m looking for a 35-10 win, and that’s well beneath the teaser points.

 

 

Washington (7-5-0) at Baltimore (8-4-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Scattered showers, strong wind, temperature falling from upper to mid 30’s

                    

PiRate:                Baltimore by 13

Mean:                  Baltimore by 11

Bias:                    Baltimore by 8

Vegas:               Baltimore by 5, 5.5, 6

Ov/Un:               35, 35.5, 36

100 Sims:           Baltimore 63  Washington 36  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 22.9  Washington 19.4

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 27  Washington 6

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 20  Baltimore 13

 

Strategy:            Over 25½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 22½ in                      a 13-point teaser 

This game is not that big of a rivalry game.  Even when the Colts played in Baltimore in the pre-merger days, this wasn’t that much of a rivalry.  The Orioles and Senators also didn’t have that much of a rivalry in the years they were both in the American League.

 

I don’t look at this game like it is a battle between Green Bay and Minnesota or Kansas City and Oakland.  It’s just another key game played on primetime, national television.

 

My immediate impulse is to play the Over in any NBC Sunday night game.  I am a little bit on the fence in this one, but in the end, I think we can win by teasing the Over. 

 

Washington’s offense has nearly disappeared in the last month.  The Redskins have scored just 43 total points in their last four games and only 99 points in their last seven games.  Baltimore’s defense gives up just 15.8 points per game.  I believe the Ravens can hold Washington to 10 points or even less in this game.  Let’s say, the Redskins score just seven points.  All Baltimore would have to do to help us win a 13-point teaser would be to score 16 points.  The Ravens have won six of seven games, and in those six wins, they have averaged 34 points per game.  ‘Nuf Ced.

 

 

Tampa Bay (9-3-0) at Carolina (9-3-0)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature falling from the low 40’s to the upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Tossup 

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Carolina by 1

Vegas:                Carolina by 3

Ov/Un:               38, 38.5

100 Sims:           Carolina 52  Tampa Bay 48

Avg Sim Score:  Carolina 26.8  Tampa Bay 26.3

Outlier 1a Sim:  Carolina 31  Tampa Bay 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tampa Bay 24  Carolina 12

 

Strategy:            Over 28 in a 10-point teaser, Over 25 in a 13-point teaser

This just might be the best Monday night game of the season.  To the winner goes first place in the NFC South and an almost certain trip to the playoffs.  The loser will still be very much in the wildcard hunt, but the winner will be at home for the first playoff game and should get a bye, while the loser will have to play on the road and play the first week.

 

Jake Delhomme has returned to the form that he had when he led the Panthers to the Super Bowl.  He will be ready to make amends for the toilet bowl showing his team displayed in Tampa in the first meeting of these teams.  I expect the Panthers to score early and often in this game.  They could put it out of reach if the Bucs are not ready defensively.

 

Could Tampa not be ready on the stop side?  Rumors have been spreading like wildfire that famed defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin may be leaving the Bucs to join his son Lane’s staff at the University of Tennessee.  Monte is an old, grizzled veteran, and I don’t expect anything but a 100% effort from him.  His players are another story.  They could be affected by the news. 

 

I am going with Carolina to even the score and win this game by more than a touchdown.  However, my only advisable plays here are the good ole teasers.  As with all Monday night games, I’m going with the Over in both 10 and 13-point teasers.

 

 

Yuck, Part 2!!!

 

If you read this far the last two weeks, and you have made it this far this week, then you must be either my wife, dad, brother, brother-in-law, or close friend.  The last two weeks were stinkers.  I thought for sure I would recover from the 2-8-1 debacle of two weeks ago.  4-17-0 is the type of successful recovery that we see in government bailouts.  I’ll need someone to funnel me 8+ trillion bucks to an offshore account if I keep picking games this poorly.

 

This week, I am playing much more conservatively.  I have been looking to see what has worked this year, and it has been teasers involving totals and not sides.  So, that’s where I will be concentrating my efforts.

 

For the season, the record against the spread has fallen to 89-73-7, dropping me under 60% (54.9%) for the first time.  It’s time to start the recovery for real, and I’m looking at those totals this week.

 

Here are my wagers for week 14 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. 10-point teaser

San Diego & Oakland Over 32

Indianapolis & Cincinnati Over 31½

New York Giants & Philadelphia Over 33

 

2. 10-point teaser

New Orleans & Atlanta Over 41

Buffalo & Miami Over 32

Carolina & Tampa Bay Over 28

 

3. 13-point teaser

San Diego & Oakland Over 29

Indianapolis & Cincinnati Over 28½

Chicago & Jacksonville Over 26½

Green Bay & Houston Over 34½

 

4. 13-point teaser

Tennessee & Cleveland Over 24½

Minnesota & Detroit Over 32

Baltimore & Washington Over 22½

NY Giants & Philadelphia Over 30

 

5. 13-point teaser

New Orleans & Atlanta Over 38

NY Jets & San Francisco Over 31

Buffalo & Miami Over 29

Denver & Kansas City Over 35

 

6. 13-point teaser

Arizona & St. Louis Under 61½

Pittsburgh & Dallas Over 27

New England & Seattle Over 30

Carolina & Tampa Bay Over 25

 

7. 13-point teaser

Indianapolis -½ vs. Cincinnati

Cleveland +28 vs. Tennessee

Denver +5 vs. Kansas City

Minnesota +5½ vs. Detroit 

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week 12 NFL Previews: November 20-23, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 12

It Was A Touchdown!

 

To those who are a little poorer today than they were Sunday morning, my sincere condolences go to you and Troy Polamalu.  You should have won.  If you follow my advice and adhere to my request to do this just for fun, it only cost you a quick laugh (more about that in this week’s selections at the bottom).

 

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		9	–	1	–	0	292	170	110.47	108.91	109.67	2
Dallas		6	–	4	–	0	230	229	101.05	101.25	102.66	2
Washington		6	–	4	–	0	181	182	99.96	100.17	101.02	2
Philadelphia		5	–	4	–	1	264	193	106.59	104.54	102.02	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Green Bay		5	–	5	–	0	274	209	107.61	105.28	102.97	2
Chicago		5	–	5	–	0	240	231	102.83	100.74	101.11	2
Minnesota		5	–	5	–	0	223	234	101.65	101.08	100.94	2
Detroit		0	–	10	–	0	173	308	87.78	90.46	90.04	3
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Carolina		8	–	2	–	0	222	155	105.40	103.89	105.25	2
Tampa Bay		7	–	3	–	0	219	160	106.19	104.15	104.86	2
Atlanta		6	–	4	–	0	231	198	102.71	101.15	102.37	2
New Orleans		5	–	5	–	0	266	249	100.56	100.83	100.67	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		7	–	3	–	0	289	228	103.24	103.51	104.15	3
San Francisco		3	–	7	–	0	230	275	93.76	94.33	94.41	3
Seattle		2	–	8	–	0	190	257	93.57	95.18	94.55	3
St. Louis		2	–	8	–	0	144	317	83.58	89.63	89.04	2
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		7	–	3	–	0	289	221	102.69	102.65	104.46	2
New England		6	–	4	–	0	219	194	99.73	101.92	101.33	2
Miami		6	–	4	–	0	209	197	99.79	99.38	102.03	2
Buffalo		5	–	5	–	0	219	218	97.46	97.50	98.19	3
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Pittsburgh		7	–	3	–	0	209	150	107.34	105.45	104.75	2
Baltimore		6	–	4	–	0	222	180	104.99	104.23	102.24	3
Cleveland		4	–	6	–	0	201	221	99.02	99.29	99.46	2
Cincinnati		1	–	8	–	1	138	249	92.86	93.53	94.67	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tennessee		10	–	0	–	0	244	131	111.29	108.54	108.56	2
Indianapolis		6	–	4	–	0	224	224	102.73	102.66	102.07	2
Jacksonville		4	–	6	–	0	212	210	100.41	100.39	98.76	3
Houston		3	–	7	–	0	236	287	96.01	97.02	96.00	3
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		6	–	4	–	0	248	271	96.76	97.65	100.48	2
San Diego		4	–	6	–	0	254	229	101.55	101.00	99.71	2
Oakland		2	–	8	–	0	128	235	89.60	91.62	88.84	2
Kansas City		1	–	9	–	0	165	273	90.87	92.20	92.81	2

 

Note: due to a Thursday game this week, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday Noon EST

 

NFL Previews-Week 12

 

Cincinnati (1-8-1) at Pittsburgh (7-3-0)

Time:           8:15 EST Thursday 11/20

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Snow showers likely, moderate wind, temperature dropping from low 30’s to upper 20’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 16                   

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 14

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 12

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 10½   -600/+500

Ov/Un:        34  

Strategy:     Pittsburgh -½ in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +2½ in 13-point teaser, Over 24 in 10-point teaser, Over 21 in 13-point teaser

Has Cincinnati become a good team after starting the season as the Lions of the AFC?  Philadelphia has a potent offense, and holding the Eagles to 13 points in five full quarters of play is something to look at.  Pittsburgh’s offense is mediocre at the present time, and the Steelers may find the going tough, especially if inclement weather neutralizes their offense.

 

On the other hand, Pittsburgh slaughtered Cinti 38-10 just a month ago.  The Steelers’ defense is almost as strong as Tennessee’s.  I cannot see the Bengals scoring enough points in this game no matter how few they may need to score to win.  I am looking for the Steelers to come up with a big play or two, probably on the defensive side and possibly due to special teams.  Call it a Steeler win in the neighborhood of 20-7.  Because the weather could be worse or better than expected, I won’t take Pittsburgh outright in a straight play, but I do expect 25 or more points to be scored, even if there is a blizzard.     

 

Minnesota (5-5-0) at Jacksonville (4-6-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 60’s

 

PiRate:         Jacksonville by 2

Mean:           Jacksonville by 2

Bias:             Jacksonville by 1

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 2      -140/+120

Ov/Un:        40½              

Strategy:     Minnesota +12 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota +15 in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 10-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser 

This will be a tough battle between two teams just hanging on to playoff hopes.  If Minnesota wins, they get to hang on to a piece of first place in the NFC North and could possibly own it all to themselves.  If Jacksonville wins, they will still be in contention to get into contention.  If the Jags lose, their season is done.

 

I like the Vikings in the teasers because when they lose, it is usually by a touchdown or less, and when the Jags win, it is usually by a touchdown or less.  While this game could be lower scoring than normal, I cannot see it becoming a defensive struggle.  I am looking for a minimum of a 20-13 score either way and a maximum of 28-24 either way, so I am teasing the over in this game.

 

Philadelphia (5-4-1) at Baltimore (6-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the low 40’s

 

PiRate:         Baltimore by 1

Mean:           Baltimore by 3

Bias:             Baltimore by 3

Vegas:        Baltimore by 1          -120/+100   

Ov/Un:        39½

Strategy:     Philadelphia +11 in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +14 in 13-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser

We have two teams here who will be ready to play hard in an effort to erase the memories of what happened in their previous games.  The Eagles debacle with Cincinnati was made all the more worse when Donovan McNabb obviously did not know the rules of the game.  Of course, he does not call the plays, and the coaching staff knew the rules.  However, thinking that another overtime period was coming, he may not have played with the necessary hurried mentality.  On some of those plays in the second-to-last Eagle possession before the Hail Mary pass at the end, he may have thrown to a different receiver not trying to gamble when it actually was time to gamble.

 

Baltimore thought they were near the equal of the defending Super Bowl champions, and they had their hat handed to them when they played the Giants last week.  The Ravens are still on the good side of the playoff bubble and could still win 11 games this year.  That won’t happen if they don’t win this game.

 

I expect a close, hard-fought game that goes down to the wire.  I consider it a 50-50 contest, so I’ll play the teasers that give me the most points (taking the underdog).  I expect both offenses to be on their game and look for more than 30 total points in this game.  The 13-point tease on the Over looks like a gift here.

 

New England (6-4-0) at Miami (6-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of showers, strong wind, temperature in the low to mid 70’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 2

Mean:           New England by 1

Bias:             Miami by 3

Vegas:        Miami by 2         -125/+105

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     New England +12 in 10-point teaser, New England +15 in 13-point teaser, Under 55 in 13-point teaser

11 weeks ago, who would have thought that this game would match two teams with identical records, and who would have thought that Miami would have clobbered the Patriots in the earlier meeting?  This game will be all about payback.  New England cannot afford to lose this game and remain a serious playoff threat.  Two losses to the Dolphins may leave them on the outside looking in for the rest of the season.

 

Miami has been winning ugly the last few games.  The Dolphins narrowly defeated weak Seattle and Oakland teams.  The Patriots will come out and play the best defense they can play, and I cannot see Miami topping 17 points.  The single wing won’t exploit the Pats like it did in the first game.

 

I expect New England to win this one outright, but I am going to play it safe and just take them and double digit points in the teasers.  Since Miami’s defense is quite capable, I will tease the Under at 13 points.  At 55 points, we still win if the final is 34-17, and I cannot see either team scoring 28 points in this game.

 

Chicago (5-5-0) at St. Louis (2-8-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Chicago by 17

Mean:           Chicago by 9

Bias:             Chicago by 10

Vegas:         Chicago by 8      -350/+320  

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     Over 33 in 10-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser, Chicago +5 in 13-point teaser

The Bears are on the ropes after seemingly being in control of the NFC North two weeks ago.  They stopped the Titans’ ground game but lost the war when they allowed Kerry Collins to look like Peyton Manning.  Last week, Aaron Rodgers and company put a big whipping on them, and now there is a sense of urgency to avoid falling in the crapper.

 

St. Louis is back to being the dregs of the NFC.  I’m not sure they could beat Detroit today.  Injuries have hit, and the Rams just don’t have any depth.

 

Chicago scares me.  Kyle Orton obviously is not 100% healthy, and Rex Grossman is not the man who can run this offense.  Against an inept Rams’ defense, a semi-healthy Orton should put up 24 points or more.  The Rams have a chance at the upset, but even if they were to win, I can only see it coming by a field goal at the most.  Thus, I like taking the Bears in a 13-point teaser, as it gives us 5 points.  A teasing of the Over looks safe.

 

Houston (3-7-0) at Cleveland (4-6-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the upper 30’s

 

PiRate:         Cleveland by 5

Mean:           Cleveland by 4

Bias:             Cleveland by 5

Vegas:        Cleveland by 3          -155/+135  

Ov/Un:        49½

Strategy:     Over 36½ in 13-point teaser

Both of these teams have been huge underachievers this year.  When two underachievers meet, there can be four outcomes each with about 25% of happening.  One team can play like they should have been playing while the other continues not to live up to its potential (that’s two different scenarios since it could be either team).  Both teams could play like they were supposed to be playing all along, or both teams could continue to play poorly.

 

Since there is a 50% probability that one of the two teams will play great while the other continues to stink, it makes playing a side too much of a risk.  However, I like the Over in a 13-point tease.  If only one team plays well, that team should top 35 points.  If both teams play well, it should be a track meet with both teams topping 24 points.  If both teams play poorly and underachieve once again, then two poor defenses should lead to a game with 60 or more total points.

 

San Francisco (3-7-0) at Dallas (6-4-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Chance of showers, moderate wind, temperature in upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Dallas by 9

Mean:           Dallas by 9

Bias:             Dallas by 10

Vegas:        Dallas by 10  

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Dallas Pk in 10-point teaser, Dallas +3 in 13-point teaser, Under 60 in 13-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser

Having Tony Romo back makes Dallas more than 10 points better than when he is out.  The Cowboys will win this game with about 95% certainty, but I wouldn’t advise giving away 10 points.  Play it safe and take Dallas as part of your parlay on a teaser.  This is a must-win game, and a one-point win is as good as an 11-point win for them.  Let it be that way for you too.

 

The teasing both ways of the totals are secondary plays in this game.  I see a final score being at least 21-17 and as much as 35-13.  Both scenarios fall within the 26-point range of both sides of the 13-point teaser.

 

Tampa Bay (7-3-0) at Detroit (0-10-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 15

Mean:          Tampa Bay by 11

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 12

Vegas:         Tampa Bay by 8       -355/+325

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +2 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +5 in 13-point teaser, Under 54 in 13-point teaser

Detroit last won a game on the Sunday before Thanksgiving eight years ago.  That was a Lion team that had a winning record, and it came against an opponent that finished 5-11.

 

Tampa Bay is headed to the playoffs as either NFC South champs or a wildcard.  Detroit is just hoping to win a game this year.  They will be thinking about the annual turkey day game on national television, and this game won’t be the one they win.  Look for the Lions to be 0-11 on Thanksgiving day, and it would be ironic if they face an 11-0 Tennessee team.

 

Tampa Bay has more than a 95% chance of winning this game.  By taking the Bucs in 10 and 13-point teasers, we get them as an underdog.

 

Tampa Bay’s defense should do a number on Detroit’s offense.  The Lions will be lucky to reach 17 points, and I believe they could be held under 14.  Tampa Bay isn’t a team that blows opponents off the field.  The Bucs could win 31-10, and that wouldn’t come close to topping our Over.

 

Buffalo (5-5-0) at Kansas City (1-9-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 5

Mean:          Buffalo by 3

Bias:             Buffalo by 3

Vegas:         Buffalo by 3 -165/+145

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     Buffalo +7 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser

Dick Jauron cost his team a chance to win Monday night.  Trent Edwards quickly led the Bills into Browns’ territory at the end of the game.  Cleveland could not stop the Buffalo two-minute offense.  The Bills were facing a moderate wind, and a 46 yard field goal attempt was more like a 55 yard field goal attempt.  Jauron ordered consecutive running plays rather than continue to pass the ball.  Sure, Edwards had problems in the first quarter, but he was exploiting Cleveland’s defense on that final drive.  Jauron showed a lack of confidence in Edwards, and that does not bode well for the Bills.  I believe they are headed to a last place finish in the AFC East, and they could easily finish 7-9 or even 6-10.

 

Kansas City has now lost 19 of their last 20 games, but the Chiefs have suffered four close losses.  Tyler Thigpen is improving, and he could pass for 250 yards in this game.  Kansas City could certainly win this game, and I give them close to a 50% chance of doing so.  If they can pull off the upset, I am sure it will be by a touchdown or less.  Playing Buffalo in a 10 and 13-point teaser gives you seven and 10 points respectively.  I’ll take them.

 

I see this game leading to 40 points, so I’ll play the Over in a 13-point teaser.

 

New York Jets (7-3-0) at Tennessee (10-0-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 11

Mean:           Tennessee by 8

Bias:             Tennessee by 6

Vegas:        Tennessee by 5

Ov/Un:        40½

Strategy:     Jets +15 in 10-point teaser, Jets +18 in 13-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser

Can Brett Favre torch the best defense in the AFC in the same manner he has done the last two months?  The Jets have averaged better than 33 points per game over the last four games, and better than 32 points per game over the last eight.

 

Tennessee leads the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 13.1 points per game.  I believe that average will go up some this week, but maybe by just one point. 

 

This game could easily be a warm-up for the AFC Championship Game.  The Jets need it to be a high scoring game to win it, while the Titans need it to be a lower scoring game.  The weather will be perfect, and I believe Favre will be ready to play a great game.  He lives for games like this.

 

Tennessee keeps coming up with ways to win close games.  They may look awful for a half, and then in a span of five minutes, they score two touchdowns.  Then, their defense shuts down the opponents for the rest of the game.

 

I see the Titans struggling to stop the Jets this week.  I believe New York has as much chance of winning as Tennessee.  So, playing my typical strategy, I’ll take the underdog in the teasers and force the Titans to win by more than two touchdowns to beat me.  Playing the Over in a 13-point tease means we win if the score is 16-13, and I think that could be the halftime score this week.

 

Oakland (2-8-0) at Denver (6-4-0)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:         Denver by 9

Mean:           Denver by 8

Bias:             Denver by 14

Vegas:        Denver by 9 -400/+360 

Ov/Un:        42½

Strategy:     Denver +1 in 10-point teaser, Denver +4 in 13-point teaser, Under 52½ in 10-point teaser Under 55½ in 13-point teaser

Jay Cutler took apart the Raiders’ defense in the opening week of the season.  Oakland’s defense looked like Swiss cheese.  Since then, the Raider offense has disappeared, while the defense has played admirably.

 

Oakland has no offense to speak of since the dismissal of Lane Kiffin.  The Raiders have scored a grand total of 50 points in the last six games.  Even a second-rate Denver defense will hold the silver and black under 20 points.  Denver should gain the sweep and take a commanding lead in the AFC West, but I don’t expect Cutler to repeat the numbers he put up the first time.  I see Denver winning with a score similar to 31-17, 28-10, 30-14, and if it’s really close, 24-17.  Nine points is too much to ask the Broncos to cover, but taking the home team in the teasers is a nice, conservative move.  All of the scoring scenarios I listed are under 50 total points, so an Under tease is an approved move.

 

New York Giants (9-1-0) at Arizona (7-3-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:         Giants by 4

Mean:          Giants by 2

Bias:            Giants by 3

Vegas:         Giants by 3

Ov/Un:        48½

Strategy:     Under 61½ in 13-point teaser

There is a second game this week that could be the preview of a conference championship game.  Arizona and the Giants could easily meet for the NFC title, but the game would take place in the Meadowlands and not in Phoenix.

 

I will be interested in seeing what the Giants do defensively to stop Kurt Warner.  The Warner that played for the Giants is not the same Warner today.  He has regained enough zip on his passes to be as dangerous as he was back in the “Greatest Show on Turf” days.

 

Remember two things.  First, the Giants figured a way to stop the Patriots’ offense last year.  That offense was considered the best ever to take the field.  Now, also remember that the Browns torched New York for 35 points. 

 

This will be the Giants’ first road game in the Mountain Time Zone.  It will be their third road game against a team with a winning record.  Those other two road games against winning teams both were in Pennsylvania.  They beat the Eagles by five and the Steelers by seven.

 

I believe Arizona is better than both Pitt and Philly.  I believe the road trip will be harder on the Giants than the hop to the Keystone State.  I believe we have another tossup game here, but I am not as confident as my writing would have you to believe.  If, and only if, you need one more game to fill out a parlay, then I would consider taking the Cardinals in a 10 or 13-point teaser.  I won’t be using that pick this week.  I only like teasing the Under in this game, because I believe the Giants will try to control the ball and eat up the clock and be happy to win 21-20.

 

Carolina (8-2-0) at Atlanta (6-4-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 1

Mean:          Tossup

Bias:            Carolina by 1

Vegas:         Atlanta by 1½          -125/+105   

Ov/Un:        42½

Strategy:     Atlanta +8½ in 10-point teaser, Atlanta +11½ in 13-point teaser, Under 52½ in 10-point teaser, Under 55½ in 13-point teaser    

This game has been moved to 4:15 from 1:00, as it is an important game in the NFC South.  If the Panthers win this one, then they are in the driver’s seat in the division.  If Atlanta wins, then this race begins to look like the 1967 American League baseball pennant race.

 

The Falcons lost to Denver at the Georgia Dome last week, and they will bring their A-game this week.  Since their bye, Carolina has looked like they were not firing on all cylinders in relatively close wins over Oakland and Detroit.  They are primed to be upset.

 

I believe the Falcons have a great chance of winning this game, but so do the wise guys in Vegas.  So, I will resort to the teasers and take the Falcons.  We get more than a touchdown in 10 and 13-point teasers.  I also like teasing the Over in this game.  Atlanta’s defense will hold Carolina to 21 points or less, and the Falcons will not top 30.

 

Washington (6-4-0) at Seattle (2-8-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:         Washington by 3

Mean:           Washington by 2

Bias:             Washington by 3

Vegas:        Washington by 3½         -170/+150

Ov/Un:        40½

Strategy:     Seattle +13½ in 10-point teaser, Seattle +16½ in 13-point teaser, Under 50½  in 10-point teaser, Under 53½ in 13-point teaser    

I thought the odds makers might install Seattle as a slight favorite in this game.  The Redskins are no juggernaut on the East Coast.  Let’s look at their recent history of the last month or so.  They lost at home to the Rams.  They barely edged Cleveland at home.  They had to come from behind in the fourth quarter to win at winless Detroit.  They didn’t show up in a loss at Pittsburgh, and then following a bye week, they blew the lead in a loss to Dallas.  That’s three losses in their last five games.

 

Seattle is not much better than Detroit and weaker than Cleveland.  They are better than the Rams.  While they are not in the Cowboys’ league, Washington will not be as up for this game as they were Sunday night. 

 

I give the Seahawks an excellent chance to win and almost recommend them straight up.  However, this week, I am only playing teasers, and I like getting the home team getting double digit points in this situation.  The score of Seattle games has been much lower as of late than it was at the beginning of the season.  Redskin games have been consistently lower than average, so I like teasing the Under in this one.

 

Indianapolis (6-4-0) at San Diego (4-6-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature falling from upper 60’s to upper 50’s

                    

PiRate:         San Diego by 1

Mean:           San Diego by 3

Bias:             San Diego by 3

Vegas:        San Diego by 3

Ov/Un:        49½

Strategy:     Indianapolis +13 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +16 in 13-point teaser

San Diego is the most underachieving team this season.  The 4-6 Chargers were supposed to win 12 to 14 games this year.  Now, they are just barely on playoff life support.  If they are 4-7 Monday morning, and the Broncos are 7-4, then this race is over.  The Chargers will not qualify as a wildcard if they are 4-7 after 11 games.  So, this is definitely a must-win game for the home team.

 

Indianapolis is slowly beginning to look like a 10 or 11-win team.  If they win this game, they could even run the table and finish 12-4.  After this game, the Colts have Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Jacksonville and should win all four.  The season finale at home against Tennessee will only matter to the Titans if they are 15-0 then, and even at 15-0, Jeff Fisher would be crazy to stick with his key regulars and gamble on injuries.  We could see Vince Young running the zone read that week.

 

This game is not a must-win for the Colts, but we can never count out a Peyton Manning team in a nationally televised, primetime game.  I’ll take the Colts in the teasers and force San Diego to beat them big to hurt us.

 

Green Bay (5-5-0) at New Orleans (5-5-0)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Green Bay by 5 

Mean:           Green Bay by 2

Bias:             Tossup

Vegas:        New Orleans by 2½        -135/+115

Ov/Un:        51½  

Strategy:     Green Bay +12½ in 10-point teaser, Green Bay +15½ in 13-point teaser, New Orleans +10½ in 13-point teaser, Over 38½ in 13-point teaser  

The Monday night games continue to be high scoring affairs, and now we get two teams that like to light up the scoreboards.  This has the makings of a possible 80-point game.  Drew Brees could pass for 350-500 yards, and Aaron Rodgers could be only a couple dozen yards behind him.  I expect a maximum number of plays, in the neighborhood of 135-140.  I cannot see either team holding the other one under 28 points.  This game actually gives us several possible plays.  The winner of this game should win by single digits.  The total points scored should be in the 40’s at the minimum.

 

Foiled By A Missed Interpretation Of The Rules And The Coaching Of Dick Jauron

 

Last week’s picks finished 9-6-0 for what looked like a winning week.  However, when looking at the “money” on the line, I lost $145.  Upon closer inspection, the wrong call in the Pittsburgh game cost me $210, which would have made it a winning week at 10-5-0 with $65 profit.  On Monday night, Buffalo was exploiting Cleveland’s secondary at the end of the game.  Trent Edwards quickly marched the Bills to the Browns 30 yard line, and then Coach Dick Jauron cost his team the game by running the ball forward for a grand total of a yard or two.  A 46 yard field goal attempt into a strong wind was not what to play for, especially when the Bills had time to drive to the goal line or at least into short field goal range.  It’s a little too late to reconsider Jauron’s long contract extension.  I advise you monitoring the Bills to see if Jauron has “lost the team.”  The Bills’ players were not happy with the end of the game management.

 

For the season, my picks against the spread are now 83-48-6 (63.4%).  The account balance is $1,920. 

 

Here are my wagers for week 12 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. 10-point teaser

       A. Pittsburgh -½ vs. Cincinnati

       B. Miami +12 vs. Jacksonville

       C. Philadelphia +11 vs. Baltimore

 

2. 10-point teaser

       A. New England +12 vs. Miami

       B. Dallas Pk vs. San Francisco

       C. Tampa Bay +2 vs. Detroit

 

3. 10-point teaser

       A. New York Jets +15 vs. Tennessee

       B. Denver +1 vs. Oakland

       C. Seattle +13½ vs. Washington

 

4. 10-point teaser

       A. Indianapolis +13 vs. San Diego

       B. Green Bay + 12½ vs. New Orleans

       C. Pittsburgh & Cincinnati Over 24

 

5. 10-point teaser

       A. Minnesota & Jacksonville Over 30½

       B. Atlanta & Carolina Under 52½

       C. Seattle & Washington Under 50½

 

6. 13-point teaser

       A. Pittsburgh +2½ vs. Cincinnati

       B. New England +15 vs. Miami

       C. Minnesota & Jacksonville Over 27½

       D. Houston & Cleveland Over 36½

 

7. 13-point teaser

       A. Minnesota +15 vs. Jacksonville

       B. Chicago +5 vs. St. Louis

       C. Green Bay & New Orleans Over 38½

       D. Dallas & San Francisco Under 60

 

8. 13-point teaser

       A. Philadelphia +14 vs. Baltimore

       B. Dallas +3 vs. San Francisco

       C. New England & Miami Under 55

       D. Pittsburgh & Cincinnati Over 21

 

9. 13-point teaser

       A. New York Jets +18 vs. Tennessee

       B. Tampa Bay +5 vs. Detroit

       C. Denver +4 vs. Oakland

       D. Green Bay +15½ vs. New Orleans

 

10. 13-point teaser

       A. Atlanta +11½ vs. Carolina

       B. Seattle +16½ vs. Washington

       C. Indianapolis +16 vs. San Diego

       D. Buffalo & Kansas City Over 30½

 

11. 13-point teaser

       A. New York Jets & Tennessee Over 27½

       B. Philadelphia & Baltimore Over 26½

       C. Chicago & St. Louis Over 30

       D. Buffalo +10 vs. Kansas City               

     

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.