2015 NFC North Preview

A division that looked like one of the surer things in the 2015 NFL became very unsure in week two of the NFL Preseason.  When Green Bay wide receiver Jordy Nelson went down with a season-ending injury, the Packers’ advantage over their three division rivals went with him.  Now, this division is an open race, and all four teams could stay in contention through Thanksgiving.  The PiRate Ratings for the Packers will change between this entry and the opening week of the season, as Nelson is almost as valuable to the green and gold offense as Aaron Rodgers.

Detroit now becomes the co-favorite in the old “Black and Blue” division with a rifle-armed quarterback in Matthew Stafford and two all-pro receivers in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate.  But, a running attack that has no star will allow defenses to key on Johnson and Tate.  Losing Ndamukong Suh will affect the defense.

 

Minnesota is the tiger in the tall grass in this division.  The Vikings are on the verge of becoming relevant again with an improving defense and more consistent offense.  The return of Adrian Peterson should allow Teddy Bridgewater to have more holes in pass defense coverage to locate new receiver Mike Wallace.  Our PiRate Ratings have a pre-set automatic improvement with this team if the Vikings start the season 3-0 like we think they have the chance to do.

 

Chicago is at a crossroads.  The Mark Trestman era was a short-lived failure, and the John Fox era begins after Fox left Denver following a lackluster blowout loss to Indianapolis, in which the Broncos did not act like they were happy to be there.  The Bears start over on defense with the switch from 4-3 to 3-4.  Jay Cutler lost his favorite receiver in Brandon Marshall.  The Bears could go either way this year.  Fox could bring the Monsters of the Midway back to respectability and challenge for a 9-7 season, or the Bears could sink to the bottom of the NFC, effectively ending the Cutler era in the Second City.  As the Vikings’ schedule gives them a shot at starting 3-0, the Bears are looking at a tougher start and could begin 0-3.

CHICAGO BEARS

Bears Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Alshon Jeffrey
WR	Eddie Royal
WR	Marquess Wilson
TE	Martellus Bennett
LT	Jermon Bushrod
LG	Matt Slauson
C	Will Montgomery
RG	Kyle Long
RT	Jordan Mills
QB	Jay Cutler
HB	Matt Forte
H-B	Dante Rosario
Defense
DE	Ego Ferguson
NT	Jay Ratliff/Eddie Goldman
DE	Jarvis Jenkins
LB	Pernell McPhee
LB	Shea McClellin
LB	Christian Jones
LB	Jared Allen
CB	Kyle Fuller
S	Antrel Rolle
S	Brock Vereen
CB	Alan Ball
N5	Ryan Mundy
Special
Kicker	Robbie Gould
Punter	Pat O’Donnell
KR	Marc Mariani
PR	Marc Mariani

Chicago Bears
Head Coach	John Fox
Off. Coordinator	Adam Gase
Def. Coordinator	Vic Fangio
2014 W-L-T	5-11-0
Pts	19.9
Opp	27.6
Ratings
PiRate	95.8
Mean	95.1
Bias	95.8
Average	95.6
Grades
Running	C
Passing	C-
Vs. Run	C+
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	A-
Predicted W-L	6-10-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	14
Overall Rank	26
Postseason	No

 

DETROIT LIONS

Lions Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Calvin Johnson
WR	Golden Tate
TE	Eric Ebron
TE	Brandon Pettigrew
LT	Riley Reiff
LG	Laken Tomlinson
C	Travis Swanson
RG	Larry Warford
RT	Cornelius Lucas
QB	Matthew Stafford
HB	Joique Bell
FB	Mike Burton
Defense
DE	Darryl Tapp
DT	Haloti Ngata
DT	Tyrunn Walker
DE	Ezekiel Ansah
LB	Tahir Whitehead
LB	Stephen Tulloch
LB	DeAndre Levy
CB	Darius Slay
S	James Ihedigbo
S	Glover Quin
CB	Rashean Mathis
N5	Josh Wilson
Special
Kicker	Matt Prater
Punter	Sam Martin
KR	Jeremy Ross
PR	Jeremy Ross

Detroit Lions
Head Coach	Jim Caldwell
Off. Coordinator	Gunther Cunningham
Def. Coordinator	Teryl Austin
2014 W-L-T	11-5-0
Pts	20.1
Opp	17.6
Ratings
PiRate	102.9
Mean	101.8
Bias	103.4
Average	102.7
Grades
Running	D
Passing	A
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	D
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	5
Overall Rank	10
Postseason	No

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Packers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Randall Cobb
WR	Davanbte Adams
WR	Andrew Quarless
TE	Richard Rodgers
LT	David Bakhtiari
LG	Josh Sitton
C	Corey Linsley
RG	T. J. Lang
RT	Bryan Bulaga
QB	Aaron Rodgers
HB	Eddie Lacy
FB	John Kuhn
Defense
DE	Letroy Guion
DT	B. J. Raji
DE	Mike Daniels
LB	Clay Matthews
LB	Sam Barrington
LB	Nate Palmer
LB	Julius Peppers
CB	Casey Hayward
S	Morgan Burnett
S	Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
CB	Sam Shields
N5	Micah Hyde
Special
Kicker	Mason Crosby
Punter	Tim Masthay
KR	Ty Montgomery
PR	Micah Hyde

Green Bay Packers
Head Coach	Mike McCarthy
Off. Coordinator	Edgar Bennett
Def. Coordinator	Dom Capers
2014 W-L-T	12-4-0
Pts	30.4
Opp	21.8
Ratings
PiRate	108.5
Mean	107.5
Bias	109.1
Average	108.4
Grades
Running	B
Passing	A
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C+
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	A-
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	1
Overall Rank	1
Postseason	Yes

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Vikings Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Mike Wallace
WR	Charles Johnson
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson
TE	Kyle Rudolph
LT	Matt Kalil
LG	Brandon Fusco
C	John Sullivan
RG	Michael Harris
RT	T. J. Clemmings
QB	Teddy Bridgewater
HB	Adrian Peterson
FB	Zach Line
Defense
DE	Brian Robison
DT	Linval Joseph
DT	Sharrif Floyd
DE	Everson Griffen
LB	Anthony Barr
LB	Audie Cole
LB	Chad Greenway
CB	Terence Newman
S	Robert Blanton
S	Harrison Smith
CB	Xavier Rhodes
N5	Josh Robinson
Special
Kicker	Blair Walsh
Punter	Jeff Locker
KR	Cordarrelle Patterson
PR	Marcus Sherels

Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach	Mike Zimmer
Off. Coordinator	Norv Turner
Def. Coordinator	George Edwards
2014 W-L-T	7-9-0
Pts	20.3
Opp	21.4
Ratings
PiRate	100.5
Mean	97.4
Bias	101.9
Average	99.9
Grades
Running	A
Passing	C-
Vs. Run	B
Vs. Pass	B
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C+
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	9
Overall Rank	18
Postseason	No

 

2013 NFC North Division Preview

2013 N F C North Preview

The Old Black and Blue Division, it isn’t.  What once was a quartet known for punishing power running to set up play-action and long passes on offense going up against punishing defenders like Alan Page, Dick Butkus, Ray Nitschke, and Alex Karras, has become the air it out division.  Well, at least three of the teams in the division believe in pass first, pass second, pass, pass, pass.  When you have Adrian Peterson in your backfield, you run the ball about half the time.

 

Last year, the Detroit Lions scored 372 points; that was the worst offensive production in the division.  The Lions won only four games scoring 372 or 23.3 points per game.  In 1991, the year the Lions advanced to the NFC Championship Game, they only scored 339 points.  They averaged more than two points less per game when they last won the NFL Championship in 1958.

 

A return to the old plodding northern football of yesteryear is not on the horizon.  Expect the North to produce a lot of offense and average defense.  One team is liable to score more than 425 points, and that team should win the division.  However, it would not surprise us if all four teams were still alive in the division race after Thanksgiving.  This could be a season where after 12 games, there is one 7-5 team, two 6-6 teams, and one 5-7 team.

 

Green Bay is the obvious choice to repeat as division titlist.  The Packers have topped 400 points scored five out of the last six years, and they have made the playoffs in four of those five seasons.  The Packers have filled a cavity in recent years by drafting Eddie Lacy from Alabama.  Lacy should carry the ball about 15 times a game this year, and we expect him to take some of the heat off the passing game.  Look for Lacy to threaten the 1,000 yard mark, but if he averages four yards per attempt, he will do his job.

 

Aaron Rodgers is the best passer in the game in 2013.  As long as he stays healthy, the Packers will move the ball and score points on any defense.  He has one less familiar receiver in the lineup, as the team let Greg Jennings go, but this could be an addition by subtraction this season.  Wideouts Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson and tight end Jermichael Finley make up the top receiving corps in the NFC (not too far behind the group in Denver).  Add a very talented offensive line, and it is hard to see any team, and only inclement weather, holding a healthy Packers’ team under 21 points in a game.

 

Chicago and Minnesota both finished one game behind the Packers last year, with the Vikings earning a wildcard berth.  Both teams have a lot of talent on hand, but we see some liabilities in both that we believe will keep them behind Green Bay.

 

Chicago is talented enough at the skill positions to win 12 or 13 games, but the Bears’ offensive line has been more like a 12-game loser.  This year, the blocking corps figures to take a decided leap forward thanks to some help in the draft class, but we believe the team still needs at least one more new lineman before Jay Cutler can relax in the pocket.  Additionally, new head coach Mark Trestman brings an entirely new offensive philosophy, and we expect some transitioning early in the season, possibly costing the Bears a game or two.  Give Trestman time, and he will turn the Bears into the Raiders of 2002, where he directed the offense.  Trestman won multiple Grey Cups with Montreal in the CFL, much like Bud Grant once did before guiding Minnesota to four Super Bowls.

 

Speaking of the Vikings, if Christian Ponder can advance this year as much as he did last year, the purple and white might challenge for a second consecutive playoff spot.  However, we cannot see Peterson running for anything close to the 2,097 yards he gained last year.  He might pick up just 1,500 this year, and we don’t see that extra 600 yards being picked up by the passing game.  Thus, we believe the Vikings will fall back this season and possibly have to fight to avoid the cellar.

 

Detroit started the year 4-4 and then lost its final eight games last year.  This team is scary on the offensive side, but the defense scares only people rooting for the team.  We expect some improvement on the stop side, and the offense could be even better this year.  Matthew Stafford could easily top 5,000 passing yards this year, as he barely missed that mark last year.  He still has Calvin Johnson, who almost topped 2,000 receiving yards last year.  Now, he has one of the best pass-catching running backs in Reggie Bush.  Bush could top 800 yards on the ground and catch 50 passes for another 400 yards, and if so, the 2013 Lions could be as potent as the 2009 Saints.  Still, it might take 400-430 points just to break even on the won-loss ledger.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC North.

North	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Chicago Bears	Navy	3	30	47
	Orange	221	72	20
	White	255	255	255
Detroit Lions	Honolulu Blue	42	110	187
	Metallic Silver	133	136	139
	White	255	255	255
Green Bay Packers	Dark Green	44	94	79
	Gold	255	182	18
	White	255	255	255
Minnesota Vikings	Purple	75	48	106
	Gold	255	182	18
	White	255	255	255

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp Green Bay Packers 106.5 106.5 106.5 11-5-0 433 336 Chicago Bears 104.7 103.2 102.2 10-6-0 375 277 Minnesota Vikings 101.6 102.2 102.6 10-6-0 379 348 Detroit Lions 96.1 95.1 94.3 4-12-0 372 437

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay Packers	106.1	104.9	105.7
Chicago Bears	101.5	102.1	101.6
Minnesota Vikings	99.5	99.9	98.3
Detroit Lions	98.4	98.9	98.5

 

PiRate Previews

Team	Chicago Bears
Head Coach	Mark Trestman
O-Coord.	Aaron Kromer
D-Coord.	Mel Tucker
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Jay Cutler
Running Back	Matt Forte
Fullback	Tony Fiammetta
Wide Receiver	Brandon Marshall
Wide Receiver	Alshon Jeffery
Tight End	Martellus Bennett
Left Tackle	Jermon Bushrod
Left Guard	Matt Slauson
Center	Roberto Garza
Right Guard	Kyle Long
Right Tackle	J’Marcus Webb
	Defense
Left End	Corey Wootten
Left Tackle	Henry Melton
Nose Tackle	Stephen Paea
Right End	Julius Peppers
Sam LB	James Anderson
Mike LB	D. J. Williams
Will LB	Lance Briggs
Left CB	Tim Jennings
Right CB	Charles Tillman
Strong Safety	Major Wright
Free Safety	Chris Conte
	Special Teams
Kicker	Robbie Gould
Punter	Adam Podlesh
K-Return	Devin Hester
P-Return	Devin Hester
Predictions
Record	9-7
Division	2nd

 

Team	Detroit Lions
Head Coach	Jim Schwartz
O-Coord.	Scott Linehan
D-Coord.	Gunther Cunningham
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Matthew Stafford
Running Back	Reggie Bush
Wide Receiver	Calvin Johnson
Wide Receiver	Nate Burleson
Tight End	Brandon Pettigrew
Tight End	Tony Scheffler
Left Tackle	Riley Reiff
Left Guard	Rob Sims
Center	Dominic Raiola
Right Guard	Dylan Gandy
Right Tackle	Jason Fox
	Defense
Left End	Jason Jones
Left Tackle	Nick Fairley
Right Tackle	Ndamukong Suh
Right End	Ziggy Ansah
Sam LB	Ashlee Palmer
Mike LB	Stephen Tulloch
Will LB	DeAndre Levy
Left CB	Chris Houston
Right CB	Ronald Bartell
Strong Safety	Glover Quin
Free Safety	Louis Delmas
	Special Teams
Kicker	David Akers
Punter	Sam Martin
K-Return	Micheal Spurlock
P-Return	Micheal Spurlock
Predictions
Record	6-10
Division	4th

 

Team	Green Bay Packers
Head Coach	Mike McCarthy
O-Coord.	Tom Clements
D-Coord.	Dom Capers
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Aaron Rodgers
Running Back	Alex Green/Eddie Lacy
Fullback	John Kuhn
Wide Receiver	Jordy Nelson
Wide Receiver	Randall Cobb
Tight End	Jermichael Finley
Left Tackle	David Bakhtari
Left Guard	Josh Sitton
Center	Evan Dietrich-Smith
Right Guard	T. J. Lang
Right Tackle	Marshall Newhouse
	Defense
Left End	Datone Jones
Nose Tackle	Ryan Pickett
Right End	B. J. Raji
Left OLB	Nick Perry
Left ILB	A. J. Hawk
Right ILB	Brad Jones
Right OLB	Clay Matthews
Left CB	Tramon Williams
Right CB	Sam Shields
Strong Safety	M. D. Jennings
Free Safety	Morgan Burnett
	Special Teams
Kicker	Mason Crosby
Punter	Tim Masthay
K-Return	Randall Cobb
P-Return	Randall Cobb
Predictions
Record	11-5
Division	1st

 

Team	Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach	Leslie Frazier
O-Coord.	Bill Musgrave
D-Coord.	Alan Williams
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Christian Ponder
Running Back	Adrian Peterson
Fullback	Jerome Felton
Wide Receiver	Greg Jennings
Wide Receiver	Jerome Simpson
Tight End	Kyle Rudolph
Left Tackle	Matt Kalil
Left Guard	Charlie Johnson
Center	John Sullivan
Right Guard	Brandon Fusco
Right Tackle	Phil Loadholt
	Defense
Left End	Brian Robison
Nose Tackle	Letroy Guion
Right Tackle	Kevin Williams
Right End	Jared Allen
Sam LB	Chad Greenway
Mike LB	Erin Henderson
Will LB	Marvin Mitchell
Left CB	Josh Robinson
Right CB	Chris Cook
Strong Safety	Jamarca Sanford
Free Safety	Harrison Smith
	Special Teams
Kicker	Blair Walsh
Punter	Jeff Locke
K-Return	Cordarrelle Patterson
P-Return	Marcus Sherels
Predictions
Record	8-8
Division	3rd

 

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	4	–	0	310	257	106.6	105.7	105.8	2
NY Giants	7	–	4	–	0	277	240	103.3	102.5	103.3	2
Dallas	3	–	8	–	0	256	301	96.8	98.9	99.5	2
Washington	5	–	6	–	0	215	262	96.3	97.1	96.1	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	7	–	4	–	0	269	166	109.9	109.9	106.8	3
Chicago	8	–	3	–	0	222	172	103.3	103.4	104.7	4
Minnesota	4	–	7	–	0	189	239	97.1	99.0	99.6	3
Detroit	2	–	9	–	0	258	282	95.0	96.7	93.9	4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Atlanta	9	–	2	–	0	276	209	106.3	105.3	106.9	4
New Orleans	8	–	3	–	0	265	197	105.8	104.5	106.6	2
Tampa Bay	7	–	4	–	0	219	223	99.1	99.0	100.6	2
Carolina	1	–	10	–	0	140	276	92.7	90.0	90.3	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	4	–	7	–	0	187	225	97.2	95.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	5	–	6	–	0	213	231	95.2	94.5	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	6	–	0	209	275	93.9	92.5	95.3	3
Arizona	3	–	8	–	0	194	319	88.0	88.3	89.7	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England	9	–	2	–	0	334	266	107.8	107.0	107.5	3
NY Jets	9	–	2	–	0	264	187	106.3	105.5	106.3	2
Miami	6	–	5	–	0	205	225	102.3	101.3	102.3	3
Buffalo	2	–	9	–	0	229	295	97.7	97.1	97.0	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	8	–	3	–	0	250	188	107.4	105.9	106.1	4
Pittsburgh	8	–	3	–	0	254	181	105.0	105.7	104.9	2
Cleveland	4	–	7	–	0	216	229	98.6	99.5	98.2	4
Cincinnati	2	–	9	–	0	225	288	95.0	95.5	91.3	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	5	–	0	282	252	102.9	102.9	102.2	4
Houston	5	–	6	–	0	264	287	100.6	100.3	99.4	2
Tennessee	5	–	6	–	0	257	218	96.7	102.1	96.5	4
Jacksonville	6	–	5	–	0	240	294	96.6	96.5	98.4	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	6	–	5	–	0	310	225	106.9	106.2	104.2	4
Kansas City	7	–	4	–	0	285	231	100.2	100.2	101.1	4
Oakland	5	–	6	–	0	255	256	96.3	96.4	97.7	2
Denver	3	–	8	–	0	250	323	93.6	95.2	92.2	2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Houston	8.0	7.4	8.4	8 1/2	51 1/2
MINNESOTA	Buffalo	2.4	4.9	5.6	6	44 1/2
MIAMI	Cleveland	6.7	4.8	7.1	4 1/2	42 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	4.1	9.6	2.1	NL	NL
KANSAS CITY	Denver	10.6	9.0	12.9	8 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Washington	9.0	7.4	9.2	7	43
Chicago	DETROIT	4.3	2.7	6.8	3 1/2	44 1/2
GREEN BAY	San Francisco	15.7	17.5	11.5	9 1/2	42
New Orleans	CINCINNATI	7.8	6.0	12.3	6 1/2	46 1/2
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	5.2	4.3	4.3	3	44 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	14.6	13.8	10.5	12 1/2	45 1/2
SEATTLE	Carolina	4.2	5.5	8.0	6	39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Dallas	10.1	8.0	6.7	5 1/2	47 1/2
St. Louis	ARIZONA	3.2	2.2	3.4	3	43
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	6.4	4.2	5.2	3	40
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	4.5	4.5	4.2	3 1/2	46

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	#
Michael Vick	Phi	6.8	0.43	118.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	1.12	110.5
Kyle Orton	Den	6.3	1.40	107.0
Matt Cassel	KC	6.0	1.24	106.7
Matt Ryan	Atl	5.6	1.23	104.5
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	6.4	1.82	103.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.39	102.1
Josh Freeman	TB	5.6	1.53	101.9
Vince Young	Ten	6.2	1.92	101.8
Matt Shaub	Hou	5.8	1.91	99.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	6.2	2.44	97.3
Seneca Wallace	Cle	5.4	2.00	96.6
Joe Flacco	Bal	5.7	2.19	96.6
Peyton Manning	Ind	5.6	2.26	95.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.20	93.8
Colt McCoy	Cle	5.4	2.36	93.5
Sam Bradford	Stl	4.5	2.18	90.0
Matt Hasselebeck	Sea	4.9	2.56	88.9
Kevin Kolb	Phi	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	Dal	5.7	3.29	87.0
Drew Brees	NO	5.4	3.29	85.3
Chad Henne	Mia	5.3	3.27	84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	4.8	3.03	84.2
Kerry Collins	Ten	4.2	2.80	82.8
Jay Cutler	Chi	5.0	3.42	81.9
Donovan McNabb	Was	4.8	3.31	81.8
Derek Anderson	Ari	4.2	2.93	81.7
Shaun Hill	Det	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jason Campbell	Oak	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jon Kitna	Dal	5.2	4.00	77.9
Carson Palmer	Cin	4.3	3.47	77.5
Eli Manning	NYG	5.2	4.26	75.7
Jimmy Clausen	Car	3.1	3.01	74.9
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
David Garrard	Jax	4.3	4.42	69.2
Bruce Gradkowski	Oak	4.0	4.43	67.4
Brett Favre	Min	4.2	4.86	64.8
Matt Moore	Car	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	3	–	0	284	226	106.9	106.2	106.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	4	–	0	253	220	104.1	102.5	103.5	2
Washington	5	–	5	–	0	202	245	97.3	98.8	99.0	3
Dallas	3	–	7	–	0	229	271	96.3	98.8	99.4	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	7	–	3	–	0	252	146	110.4	108.5	107.7	3
Chicago	7	–	3	–	0	191	146	103.0	102.8	102.7	4
Detroit	2	–	8	–	0	234	237	96.7	97.1	95.5	4
Minnesota	3	–	7	–	0	172	226	96.1	97.3	94.8	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	7	–	3	–	0	235	170	106.3	103.8	105.4	2
Atlanta	8	–	2	–	0	256	192	105.8	105.0	106.7	4
Tampa Bay	7	–	3	–	0	209	206	98.3	99.6	101.1	2
Carolina	1	–	9	–	0	117	252	91.5	89.0	90.4	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Seattle	5	–	5	–	0	185	233	95.4	94.9	96.0	3
St. Louis	4	–	6	–	0	177	198	94.5	94.6	95.8	4
San Francisco	3	–	7	–	0	160	219	94.2	93.9	95.6	4
Arizona	3	–	7	–	0	188	292	91.0	91.3	91.4	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	8	–	2	–	0	289	242	106.1	105.6	106.9	3
NY Jets	8	–	2	–	0	238	177	106.0	105.0	106.1	2
Miami	5	–	5	–	0	172	208	100.7	100.5	100.0	3
Buffalo	2	–	8	–	0	213	276	97.2	97.0	96.2	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	7	–	3	–	0	233	178	108.2	105.1	106.0	4
Pittsburgh	7	–	3	–	0	235	165	105.5	106.2	105.7	2
Cleveland	3	–	7	–	0	192	206	99.8	99.9	97.3	4
Cincinnati	2	–	8	–	0	215	262	95.3	95.8	93.2	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	6	–	4	–	0	268	216	105.6	104.5	104.8	4
Tennessee	5	–	5	–	0	257	198	98.9	103.4	100.2	4
Houston	4	–	6	–	0	244	287	98.4	98.4	97.9	2
Jacksonville	6	–	4	–	0	220	270	95.8	97.6	100.8	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	5	–	5	–	0	274	211	104.2	103.5	103.7	4
Kansas City	6	–	4	–	0	243	207	98.7	99.8	100.6	4
Oakland	5	–	5	–	0	238	223	97.9	98.1	98.9	2
Denver	3	–	7	–	0	217	287	94.3	95.4	91.1	2

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
New England	DETROIT	5.4	4.5	7.4	6 1/2	51
New Orleans	DALLAS	8.0	3.0	4.0	3 1/2	50
NEW YORK JETS	Cincinnati	12.7	11.2	14.9	9	43
WASHINGTON	Minnesota	4.2	4.5	7.2	1 1/2	43
Pittsburgh	BUFFALO	6.3	7.2	7.5	6 1/2	43
HOUSTON	Tennessee	1.5	-3.0	-0.3	NL	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Jacksonville	10.3	6.9	4.7	7	44 1/2
CLEVELAND	Carolina	12.3	14.9	10.9	11	37 1/2
BALTIMORE	Tampa Bay	13.9	9.5	8.9	7 1/2	41
CHICAGO	Philadelphia	0.1	0.6	0.7	-3	42 1/2
Green Bay	ATLANTA	0.6	-0.5	-3.0	-2	47 1/2
Miami	OAKLAND	0.8	0.4	-0.9	NL	NL
Kansas City	SEATTLE	0.3	1.9	1.6	1 1/2	44 1/2
DENVER	Bitmap St. Louis	1.8	2.8	-2.7	4	44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	San Diego	5.4	5.0	5.1	3	52
ARIZONA	San Francisco	0.8	1.4	-0.2	Pk	40

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.2	0.00	124.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.1	1.22	107.5
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.2	1.55	105.1
Matt Cassel	KC	5.9	1.37	104.9
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.6	1.33	103.7
Peyton Manning	IND	5.9	1.59	103.0
Vince Young	TEN	6.2	1.92	101.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.5	2.14	101.6
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.55	100.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.72	100.7
Matt Schaub	HOU	6.0	2.11	99.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.7	2.12	97.3
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.3	2.08	95.3
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.4	2.36	93.5
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.8	2.69	92.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	4.9	2.23	91.8
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.39	85.9
Drew Brees	NO	5.2	3.36	83.6
Chad Henne	MIA	5.0	3.27	83.2
Shaun Hill	DET	4.5	2.95	83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.8	3.16	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	3.35	81.9
Derek Anderson	ARI	4.2	2.94	81.6
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.30	81.3
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.7	3.69	77.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Jon Kitna	DAL	5.0	4.43	73.0
Eli Manning	NYG	4.9	4.55	71.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	3.8	3.97	70.4
David Garrard	JAX	4.7	4.67	69.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.0	5.20	60.7
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
					AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 11–November 18-22, 2010

Hottest Team In The League?

Quick question.  Three NFL teams have not lost a game since week six.  One of those three has outscored its opponents by 26 points per game in that time.  One has given up just one touchdown in their last two games.  The other has averaged over 30 points per game in their three-game winning streak.  Can you name these three teams?

It is no surprise that Green Bay has fared strongly in their current three-game winning streak.  The Packers were supposed to win their division and were supposed to be a top contender for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl  thanks to a powerful offense.  But, the Packers have done it with defense as of late, holding the Jets scoreless and giving up just seven to Dallas.

Atlanta has been a contender in the NFC South ever since Matt Ryan arrived.  The Falcons have scored 92 points in their three-game winning streak.

Ah, but who is this most dominating team of the trio–the one outscoring opponents by 38-12?  It’s the Oakland Raiders who all of a sudden find themselved in first place in the AFC West.  The Raiders visit Pittsburgh, and if they can beat the Steelers, they are officially back.

The Great Switch

Four games into this season, it appeared that offense was on the decline and half the league might give up less than 17 points per game.  As of late, offense has ruled.  Now half of the league could top 350 points.  This is just another part of this fascinating season in which no team appears to be dominant.  Look for 20 teams to challenge for the 12 playoff spots.  It would not surprise us to see three or more spots up for grabs in week 17.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed alphabetically by division)
Bitmap NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	6	–	3	–	0	257	209	106.2	104.8	105.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	3	–	0	236	193	104.8	102.8	104.3	2
Washington	4	–	5	–	0	183	229	95.6	97.2	93.5	3
Dallas	2	–	7	–	0	194	252	93.6	97.5	98.0	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	6	–	3	–	0	221	143	108.1	106.5	104.5	3
Chicago	6	–	3	–	0	175	146	99.4	99.6	100.8	4
Detroit	2	–	7	–	0	215	202	98.9	99.4	97.0	4
Minnesota	3	–	6	–	0	169	195	98.4	100.0	97.6	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New Orleans	6	–	3	–	0	201	151	105.8	103.1	103.9	2
Atlanta	7	–	2	–	0	222	175	104.0	103.6	104.9	4
Tampa Bay	6	–	3	–	0	188	206	96.0	96.9	98.9	2
Carolina	1	–	8	–	0	104	215	92.9	90.9	90.5	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	3	–	6	–	0	160	198	96.5	96.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	4	–	5	–	0	160	164	96.3	96.3	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	4	–	0	166	199	95.9	95.8	98.1	3
Arizona	3	–	6	–	0	175	261	91.8	93.5	92.6	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
NY Jets	7	–	2	–	0	208	150	107.1	106.0	106.6	2
New England	7	–	2	–	0	258	214	106.3	105.0	106.8	3
Miami	5	–	4	–	0	172	192	102.8	102.2	102.0	3
Buffalo	1	–	8	–	0	164	245	95.0	94.7	92.9	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	6	–	3	–	0	196	165	106.8	104.8	105.1	4
Pittsburgh	6	–	3	–	0	200	162	103.2	104.1	104.2	2
Cleveland	3	–	6	–	0	172	182	101.6	100.3	100.7	4
Cincinnati	2	–	7	–	0	184	213	98.0	98.8	96.7	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	3	–	0	240	185	105.4	104.1	104.7	4
Tennessee	5	–	4	–	0	241	179	102.1	104.2	101.6	4
Houston	4	–	5	–	0	217	257	97.3	97.0	97.4	2
Jacksonville	5	–	4	–	0	196	250	94.0	95.9	98.3	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	4	–	5	–	0	239	197	102.6	102.2	101.9	4
Oakland	5	–	4	–	0	235	188	100.2	100.6	101.7	2
Kansas City	5	–	4	–	0	212	194	97.9	98.7	99.1	4
Denver	3	–	6	–	0	203	252	95.9	97.3	94.8	2

 

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 10: November 18-22, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
MIAMI	Chicago	6.4	5.6	4.2	1 1/2	40
PITTSBURGH	Oakland	5.0	5.5	4.5	7 1/2	41
NEW YORK JETS	Houston	11.8	11.0	11.2	6 1/2	45 1/2
Baltimore	CAROLINA	11.9	11.9	12.6	10	37 1/2
TENNESSEE	Washington	10.5	11.0	12.1	7	44
Detroit	DALLAS	3.3	-0.1	-3.0	-6 1/2	47
Green Bay	MINNESOTA	6.7	3.3	3.9	3	44
CINCINNATI	Buffalo	6.0	7.1	6.8	5 1/2	44
Cleveland	JACKSONVILLE	4.6	1.4	-0.6	1 1/2	43
KANSAS CITY	Arizona	10.1	9.2	10.5	7 1/2	44
NEW ORLEANS	Seattle	11.9	9.3	7.8	11 1/2	44
Atlanta	ST. LOUIS	4.7	3.3	3.8	3	43
SAN FRANCISCO	Tampa Bay	4.5	3.5	3.4	3	41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Indianapolis	3.9	2.6	5.1	3	50 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	New York Giants	3.4	4.0	2.7	3	48 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Denver	10.7	8.9	11.1	10	50

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.5	0.00	126.0
Peyton Manning	IND	6.1	1.03	109.1
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.6	1.43	108.4
Tom Brady	NE	6	1.32	106.0
Matt Cassel	KC	5.7	1.50	102.7
Phillip Rivers	SD	7	2.43	101.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.5	1.48	101.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.85	99.6
Vince Young	TEN	5.8	2.14	97.6
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.6	2.02	97.6
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.1	2.53	95.9
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.8	2.34	95.9
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.01	95.4
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.5	2.36	94.1
Aaron Rodger	GB	5.6	2.97	89.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.40	85.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.8	2.92	85.1
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.21	84.3
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.06	83.4
Chad Henne	MIA	5	3.27	83.2
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.6	3.08	82.6
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.8	3.57	79.5
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.66	78.7
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Eli Manning	NYG	5.4	4.08	78.4
David Garrard	JAX	5.1	3.89	78.3
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.87	70.7
Jon Kitna	DAL	5	5.22	66.0
Brett Favre	MIN	4	5.54	57.6
Matt Moore	CAR	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 10–November 11-15, 2010

Current NFL Standings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
NY Giants	6	–	2	–	0	216	160	108.0	105.0	108.7	2
Philadelphia	5	–	3	–	0	198	181	103.6	102.9	105.0	2
Washington	4	–	4	–	0	155	170	98.2	99.2	99.6	4
Dallas	1	–	7	–	0	161	232	90.4	94.8	90.0	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	6	–	3	–	0	221	143	108.1	106.5	106.7	3
Minnesota	3	–	5	–	0	156	168	99.6	100.2	96.5	3
Detroit	2	–	6	–	0	203	188	99.0	99.8	101.1	4
Chicago	5	–	3	–	0	148	133	98.2	99.3	101.4	2
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	6	–	3	–	0	201	151	105.8	103.0	106.1	2
Atlanta	6	–	2	–	0	196	154	103.2	102.9	106.1	3
Tampa Bay	5	–	3	–	0	157	190	94.7	96.7	100.8	2
Carolina	1	–	7	–	0	88	184	94.2	90.9	91.2	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	2	–	6	–	0	137	178	97.1	95.6	97.5	4
St. Louis	4	–	4	–	0	140	141	95.7	96.9	99.3	3
Arizona	3	–	5	–	0	157	225	94.3	94.6	92.5	4
Seattle	4	–	4	–	0	130	181	93.4	94.1	94.6	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Jets	6	–	2	–	0	182	130	107.3	105.4	106.9	4
New England	6	–	2	–	0	219	188	104.7	104.0	104.3	2
Miami	4	–	4	–	0	143	175	101.7	100.3	101.1	2
Buffalo	0	–	8	–	0	150	233	94.9	93.4	93.6	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	6	–	2	–	0	175	139	107.6	104.8	105.6	2
Pittsburgh	6	–	2	–	0	174	123	104.8	106.4	105.4	2
Cleveland	3	–	5	–	0	152	156	101.4	100.2	101.1	2
Cincinnati	2	–	6	–	0	167	190	97.5	97.9	93.2	4
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	5	–	3	–	0	187	151	105.9	105.4	104.2	4
Tennessee	5	–	3	–	0	224	150	103.2	106.6	103.3	2
Houston	4	–	4	–	0	176	196	97.5	98.4	97.5	2
Jacksonville	4	–	4	–	0	165	226	93.8	95.2	95.5	4
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	4	–	5	–	0	239	197	102.6	102.8	100.0	4
Kansas City	5	–	3	–	0	183	145	100.3	101.4	100.5	2
Oakland	5	–	4	–	0	235	188	100.2	100.6	100.3	2
Denver	2	–	6	–	0	154	223	93.5	94.7	90.6	2

 

THIS WEEK’S PIRATE, MEAN, AND BIAS SPREADS

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Baltimore	ATLANTA	1.4	-1.1	-3.5	-1 1/2	43
INDIANAPOLIS	Cincinnati	12.4	11.5	15.0	8	47 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	Houston	0.3	0.8	2.0	2	50
MIAMI	Tennessee	0.5	-4.3	-0.1	-1	42 1/2
CHICAGO	Minnesota	0.6	1.1	6.9	-1	40 1/2
Detroit	BUFFALO	2.1	4.4	5.5	-3	42 1/2
New York Jets	CLEVELAND	3.9	3.2	3.8	3	37
TAMPA BAY	Carolina	2.5	7.8	11.6	7	35 1/2
Kansas City	DENVER	4.8	4.7	7.9	1	42
SAN FRANCISCO	St. Louis	5.4	2.7	2.2	6	38 1/2
ARIZONA	Seattle	4.9	4.5	1.9	3	41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Dallas	19.6	12.2	20.7	14	45
PITTSBURGH	New England	2.1	4.4	3.1	4 1/2	45
Philadelphia	WASHINGTON	1.4	-0.3	1.4	3	42

 

PIRATE QUARTERBACK PASSER FORMULA

 

Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	6.2	1.14	108.7
Vince Young	TEN	6.5	1.64	106.0
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.4	1.58	105.9
Tom Brady	NE	5.7	1.53	102.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.43	101.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.5	1.74	99.5
Matt Cassel	KC	5.2	1.87	96.7
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark San chez	NYJ	5.2	1.97	95.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.3	2.03	95.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.4	2.75	95.6
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.6	2.28	95.3
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.4	2.62	91.2
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.9	2.52	89.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.97	89.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	2.89	86.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.8	2.92	85.1
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.21	84.3
Chad Henne	MIA	4.9	3.24	83.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.6	3.08	82.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.9	3.32	82.2
Sam Bradford	STL	3.9	2.74	81.7
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.6	3.45	79.4
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Eli Manning	NYG	5.3	4.06	78.0
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.87	70.7
David Garrard	JAX	4.2	4.70	66.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.3	5.04	63.7
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.0	3.67	62.9
Jon Kitna	DAL	3.6	5.36	57.0
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: [((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

 

Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New York Giants              12-4

2. Atlanta Falcons                 12-4

3. Green Bay Packers           10-6

4. Seattle Seahawks                 8-8

5. New Orleans Saints           11-5

6. Philadelphia Eagles           11-5

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh Steelers            13-3

2. New York Jets                   12-4

3. Indianapolis Colts             10-6

4. Kansas City Chiefs            10-6

5. Baltimore Ravens              12-4

6. New England Patriots       11-5

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 9–November 7-8, 2010

AFC West Showdown in Oakland

 

How long has it been since a Raiders-Chiefs game meant so much?  Not since 1993 has this rivalry game been so important.  

 

Those of us that remember football from 45 years ago can remember some wild games between these two teams.  In 1968, Chiefs’ head coach Hank Stram faced a dilemma when the 5-1 Chiefs hosted the 5-1 Raiders.  His top receivers were injured and would miss the game.  Kansas City had three excellent running backs.  Stram installed a double tight end full-house T formation and ran the ball almost exclusively.  Len Dawson threw just three passes that day, but the running back trio of Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes rushed for close to 300 yards in a shocking win over the Raiders.

 

The two teams finished the season tied at 12-2, and they faced off in Oakland in a playoff for the AFL West title.  Oakland got revenge with a 41-6 blowout.

 

The following year, Oakland beat the Chiefs in a preseason game, and then beat them twice during the regular season.  In 1969, in the AFL’s final season, the league expanded its playoffs from two to four teams.  Playing for a fourth time, the Chiefs won in the most important AFL game of the season.  It put them in the Super Bowl.

 

The following year, the first as NFL members, the Chiefs appeared set to win when a huge fight broke out as the Chiefs were running out the clock.  Penalties forced KC to punt, and Oakland got the ball back one final time and forced a tie.  The Raiders finished 8-4-2 to 7-5-2 for the Chiefs.  Had Kansas City won that game, the Chiefs would have won the AFC West in a tiebreaker.

 

The rivalry took on added intensity when the Kansas City Athletics baseball team moved to Oakland for the 1968 season.  Sports fans in the city of Kansas City had an axe to grind with the fans from the city of Oakland.  It did not hurt that the Chiefs and Raiders were the two best teams in the old American Football League.  In the 1969 expansion of Major League Baseball, Kansas City was awarded a new franchise, and it was placed in the same division as Oakland.

 

Back to the present.  The Raiders have awakened and won two games in a row by a combined score of 92-17.  Kansas City holds a 1 ½ game lead at 5-2.  This game means something again.

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
New York Giants	104.0	104.2	106.0	5-2-0	25.0	21.9
Philadelphia	102.9	102.4	103.6	4-3-0	24.6	22.4
Washington	98.2	99.8	99.7	4-4-0	19.4	21.3
Dallas	96.4	97.2	92.9	1-6-0	22.0	26.7
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.1	104.8	105.1	5-3-0	22.0	17.0
Minnesota	102.1	101.0	97.8	2-5-0	18.4	20.6
Chicago	98.1	100.0	100.4	4-3-0	18.0	16.3
Detroit	97.7	98.7	100.0	2-5-0	26.1	23.6
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	103.8	103.8	105.3	5-2-0	24.1	19.0
New Orleans	102.8	101.9	103.5	5-3-0	20.9	18.5
Carolina	96.2	92.2	90.6	1-6-0	12.1	21.4
Tampa Bay	93.1	96.3	99.8	5-2-0	19.4	23.3
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.1	95.4	96.8	2-6-0	17.1	22.3
Seattle	96.4	96.8	98.2	4-3-0	17.6	20.0
St. Louis	95.7	96.7	98.6	4-4-0	17.5	17.6
Arizona	92.8	94.7	92.3	3-4-0	19.0	28.3
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	108.1	106.3	106.0	5-2-0	22.7	15.7
New England	107.2	106.4	107.1	6-1-0	29.3	22.0
Miami	103.4	101.3	102.3	4-3-0	19.0	21.3
Buffalo	95.0	92.5	94.6	0-7-0	18.7	30.1
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	105.4	103.8	104.4	5-2-0	21.3	18.4
Pittsburgh	104.1	105.9	104.5	5-2-0	21.0	14.6
Cleveland	98.4	97.4	96.3	2-5-0	16.9	20.3
Cincinnati	98.2	97.7	94.5	2-5-0	20.9	23.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	106.6	105.9	106.2	5-2-0	23.3	17.9
Tennessee	103.2	106.1	103.2	5-3-0	28.0	18.8
Houston	98.8	99.4	99.8	4-3-0	21.9	23.9
Jacksonville	93.8	94.8	96.1	4-4-0	20.6	28.3
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.8	100.9	100.1	3-5-0	26.3	21.8
Oakland	100.5	100.0	100.3	4-4-0	26.5	21.0
Kansas City	100.0	101.6	101.7	5-2-0	23.3	17.4
Denver	93.5	94.3	92.3	2-6-0	19.3	27.9

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 9: November 7-8, 2010
Vegas Line as of 4:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Chicago	BUFFALO	1.1	5.5	3.8	3	40 1/2
San Diego	HOUSTON	1.0	-0.5	-1.7	2 1/2	50
New Orleans	CAROLINA	4.6	7.7	10.9	7	42
MINNESOTA	Arizona	12.3	9.3	8.5	9	40 1/2
ATLANTA	Tampa Bay	13.7	10.5	8.5	9	44 1/2
New York Jets	DETROIT	6.4	3.6	2.0	4	41 1/2
BALTIMORE	Miami	4.0	4.5	4.1	5 1/2	40 1/2
New England	CLEVELAND	6.8	7.0	8.8	4 1/2	44
New York Giants	SEATTLE	3.6	3.4	3.8	5 1/2	41 1/2
OAKLAND	Kansas City	2.5	0.4	0.6	2 1/2	40 1/2
Indianapolis	PHILADELPHIA	1.7	1.5	0.6	-3	46 1/2
GREEN BAY	Dallas	11.7	10.6	15.2	7 1/2	45 1/2
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	1.9	4.2	6.0	4 1/2	41 1/2

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	6.7	0.67	115.6
Vince Young	TEN	6.5	1.64	106.0
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.4	1.58	105.9
Josh Freeman	TB	5.5	1.34	103.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	7.1	2.44	102.3
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	2.29	101.4
Tom Brady	NE	5.7	1.78	100.3
Matt Cassel	KC	5.4	1.68	99.5
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.3	1.98	96.2
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	4.9	1.86	95.1
Chad Henne	MIA	5.3	2.46	92.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.3	2.54	91.3
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.3	2.55	91.2
Carson Palmer	CIN	5	2.48	90.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	2.89	86.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.9	2.90	85.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.7	2.84	85.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.3	3.35	84.2
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.32	83.3
Sam Bradford	STL	3.9	2.74	81.7
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.6	3.45	79.4
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.87	76.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.60	70.4
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.6	3.30	69.5
David Garrard	JAX	4.2	4.70	66.2
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.5	4.52	63.9
Brett Favre	MIN	3.8	5.21	59.4
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.7	6.12	50.8
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Matt Moore	CAR	2.1	7.30	31.5
Max Hall	ARI	0.5	6.67	28.1
PiRate Passer Rating Formula
[((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8   AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 8–October 31- November 1, 2010

Time For A Horse Or Two To Move Out Of The Pack 

This is the time of year where the eventual Super Bowl participants begin to kick it up a notch.  It doesn’t happen every season; for instance, we knew that New Orleans and Indianapolis were the class of the NFL last year from the second or third week.  However, in most seasons, somewhere around games five thru seven, a couple of teams begin to separate from the pack.  You don’t always realize it until the last quarter of the season.  A 3-3 team will go 5-1 to move to 8-4.  That team may still trail two or three teams in their conference.  While everybody else looks at the 10-2 teams, it is really the hot 8-4 team that is primed to win in the playoffs.

Which AFC teams appear to be peaking at this time?  The Jets, Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens are not peaking.  The Jets could turn out to be a great team that is going to “wire the field,” but we see two teams that look to be decent fits for this pattern.  Both happen to be in the same division.  The Indianapolis Colts may not be close to last year’s team in talent, but they are starting to play like a playoff winner.  The Tennessee Titans better fit this pattern.  They look like a team that could run off five or six wins in a row, after winning three in a row in impressive fashion.

Stranger things have happened in the past, so we must look at the Browns and Raiders at this point.  Both pulled off impressive victories on the road last week.  We are not saying they will run off five more in succession, but we must take a hard look at their games this week. 

In the NFC, the New York Giants clearly exhibit the pattern we are looking for.  The Seattle Seahawks are the other team to monitor for this possible scenario.  We think there is still going to be one other team that will break out from the pack in the next two weeks and begin to look like a playoff winner.  Philadelphia could be that team.

Beans On Bowl

This is the week for the annual game across the pond.  When San Francisco and Denver face off in London this weekend, it could set back global football relations for years.  Could we see a coaching dismissal made some point over the Atlantic Ocean on the return flight?  Even the blokes in Jolly Ole’ England know when somebody is trying to pull a fast one over them on the football field.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
New York Giants	104.0	103.7	105.7	5-2-0	25.0	21.9
Philadelphia	102.9	102.0	102.1	4-3-0	24.6	22.4
Dallas	101.9	100.2	98.0	1-5-0	22.8	25.3
Washington	99.4	100.5	100.5	4-3-0	18.6	19.0
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	102.8	102.9	103.5	4-3-0	23.9	19.4
Minnesota	102.7	101.2	100.1	2-4-0	18.5	19.3
Chicago	98.1	100.0	99.0	4-3-0	18.0	16.3
Detroit	96.5	98.4	95.3	1-5-0	24.3	23.3
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	103.8	103.3	104.4	5-2-0	24.1	19.0
New Orleans	101.4	99.9	101.4	4-3-0	21.0	19.7
Carolina	97.6	92.4	93.1	1-5-0	12.5	21.7
Tampa Bay	92.9	95.4	97.6	4-2-0	16.3	21.3
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	98.4	98.5	100.5	4-2-0	20.0	17.8
San Francisco	96.6	94.7	92.8	1-6-0	16.1	23.1
St. Louis	94.3	96.5	96.3	3-4-0	17.1	18.7
Arizona	93.0	95.6	95.3	3-3-0	16.3	26.7
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	110.4	107.4	109.5	5-1-0	26.5	16.8
New England	106.6	105.7	106.6	5-1-0	29.5	22.7
Miami	101.3	100.2	102.0	3-3-0	18.5	22.5
Buffalo	92.7	91.9	90.9	0-6-0	20.2	33.0
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh	105.5	107.6	107.4	5-1-0	22.8	13.7
Baltimore	105.4	104.0	104.8	5-2-0	21.3	18.4
Cincinnati	100.3	98.8	99.2	2-4-0	22.0	23.7
Cleveland	98.4	97.9	96.2	2-5-0	16.9	20.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Tennessee	105.3	107.9	106.8	5-2-0	28.4	16.7
Indianapolis	105.1	105.0	105.6	4-2-0	27.2	20.8
Houston	100.3	99.6	101.1	4-2-0	25.5	27.8
Jacksonville	90.8	92.6	91.8	3-4-0	18.6	29.9
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	101.3	101.5	102.3	4-2-0	25.0	18.7
San Diego	99.7	100.4	98.2	2-5-0	25.3	21.3
Oakland	97.0	98.2	97.8	3-4-0	25.6	23.6
Denver	94.0	96.0	94.3	2-5-0	19.7	28.4

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 8: October 31-November 1, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
San Francisco	Denver  (London)	2.6	-1.3	-1.5	Pk	42
DALLAS	Jacksonville	13.1	9.6	8.2	6 1/2	42 1/2
DETROIT	Washington	0.1	0.9	-2.2	2 1/2	44
NEW YORK JETS	Green Bay	9.6	6.5	8.0	6	42
Carolina	ST. LOUIS	0.3	-7.1	-6.2	3	37
CINCINNATI	Miami	1.0	0.6	-0.8	2	43 1/2
KANSAS CITY	Buffalo	11.6	12.6	14.4	7 1/2	44 1/2
Tennessee	SAN DIEGO	1.6	3.5	4.6	-4	44
ARIZONA	Tampa Bay	2.1	2.2	-0.3	3	39 1/2
OAKLAND	Seattle	0.6	1.7	-0.7	2 1/2	42
NEW ENGLAND	Minnesota	7.9	8.5	10.5	6	42 1/2
Pittsburgh	NEW ORLEANS	1.1	4.7	3.0	-1	44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Houston	7.8	8.4	7.5	5 1/2	49 1/2

 

PiRate QB Passer Ratings

Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	8.8	1.85	117.0
Peyton Manning	IND	6.9	0.79	115.7
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.3	1.45	106.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.1	1.13	102.6
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	2.22	102.0
Josh Freeman	TB	5.0	1.51	98.7
Matt Cassel	KC	5.5	1.96	97.5
Vince Young	TEN	5.4	1.98	96.8
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.3	1.98	96.2
Tom Brady	NE	5.3	2.02	95.9
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.7	2.54	93.6
Chad Henne	MIA	5.4	2.42	93.0
Carson Palmer	CIN	5.3	2.46	92.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.3	2.54	91.3
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Donovan McNabb	WAS	5.1	2.83	87.6
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.4	3.13	86.7
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.48	81.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	4.1	2.94	81.1
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.4	3.83	80.5
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Sam Bradford	STL	3.7	3.08	77.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.87	76.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.8	4.17	74.2
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Jason Campbell	OAK	3.6	3.60	72.4
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.60	70.4
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.6	3.30	69.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.2	3.82	68.3
David Garrard	JAX	3.2	5.47	53.8
Brett Favre	MIN	3.3	5.59	53.3
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.7	6.12	50.8
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Max Hall	ARI	0.9	5.08	44.3
Matt Moore	CAR	2.5	7.00	36.4

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It is the average pass yardage per attempt minus yards after catch.  This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com.