PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 16: December 23-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Baltimore	Indianapolis	16.5	16.3	17.2	44
Green Bay	Minnesota	-6.3	-5.3	-7.6	39
Cincinnati	Detroit	-3.7	-3.3	-4.0	43
N. Y. Jets	LA Chargers	-6.6	-6.6	-6.8	41
Tennessee	LA Rams	-6.9	-6.0	-8.1	47
Chicago	Cleveland	7.9	7.3	11.0	34
Carolina	Tampa Bay	8.8	8.0	9.2	49
New Orleans	Atlanta	6.0	5.7	6.4	55
Washington	Denver	4.5	4.7	4.3	43
Kansas City	Miami	9.8	9.7	10.5	44
New England	Buffalo	14.2	13.9	14.2	42
San Francisco	Jacksonville	-7.3	-7.4	-7.5	45
Arizona	N. Y. Giants	5.6	5.1	5.8	41
Dallas	Seattle	4.1	3.5	4.8	45
Houston	Pittsburgh	-10.2	-10.1	-11.0	45
Philadelphia	Oakland	12.9	11.0	14.8	47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.1	108.1	108.0	22	11-3
Buffalo	96.3	96.6	96.4	96.4	20	8-6
Miami	96.1	96.2	95.6	96.0	21	6-8
N. Y. Jets	94.3	94.0	94.4	94.3	18	5-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	105.9	106.1	106.1	106.0	22	8-6
Pittsburgh	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7	23	11-3
Cincinnati	94.2	95.0	93.8	94.4	16	5-9
Cleveland	91.0	91.7	88.1	90.2	17	0-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	104.9	104.7	105.1	104.9	22	10-4
Tennessee	97.6	97.8	97.2	97.5	22	8-6
Houston	92.4	92.6	91.8	92.3	22	4-10
Indianapolis	91.9	92.3	91.3	91.8	22	3-11
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.5	104.1	104.7	104.4	23	7-7
Kansas City	102.8	102.9	103.2	103.0	23	8-6
Oakland	97.5	98.1	96.7	97.4	22	6-8
Denver	96.1	95.9	96.0	96.0	19	5-9
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	106.9	105.6	108.0	106.8	25	12-2
Dallas	102.9	102.4	102.9	102.8	24	8-6
Washington	97.5	97.7	97.3	97.5	24	6-8
N.Y. Giants	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	20	2-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.9	106.5	107.6	107.0	18	11-3
Detroit	100.5	100.8	100.3	100.6	27	8-6
Green Bay	98.7	99.2	98.0	98.6	21	7-7
Chicago	96.4	96.5	96.5	96.5	17	4-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.2	106.6	107.7	107.2	29	10-4
Atlanta	104.1	103.9	104.3	104.1	26	9-5
Carolina	103.5	102.7	104.0	103.4	27	10-4
Tampa Bay	97.2	97.2	97.4	97.3	22	4-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.5	106.8	108.3	107.5	25	10-4
Seattle	101.8	102.0	101.1	101.6	21	8-6
Arizona	95.7	95.6	95.5	95.6	21	6-8
San Francisco	94.5	94.3	94.6	94.5	23	4-10

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	Kansas City
5	Baltimore
6	LA Chargers
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	Minnesota
3	LA Rams
4	New Orleans
5	Carolina
6	Atlanta

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over LA Chargers

Baltimore over Kansas City

LA Rams over Atlanta

New Orleans over Carolina

Divisional Round

New England over Baltimore

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Minnesota over LA Rams

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Minnesota over New Orleans

Super Bowl 52

Pittsburgh over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 13: November 30-December 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Dallas	Washington	2.8	3.0	2.4	51
Baltimore	Detroit	5.3	5.4	5.3	45
Chicago	San Francisco	6.2	6.4	6.5	43
Atlanta	Minnesota	2.5	2.7	2.1	47
Buffalo	New England	-8.9	-8.5	-9.0	45
Miami	Denver	-0.4	-0.2	-0.6	41
Tennessee	Houston	3.5	3.5	3.3	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10.5	10.4	10.8	43
Green Bay	Tampa Bay	3.6	4.2	3.0	43
N. Y. Jets	Kansas City	-3.0	-3.9	-2.8	41
New Orleans	Carolina	7.0	7.2	6.8	56
LA Chargers	Cleveland	17.3	16.1	17.7	42
Arizona	LA Rams	-5.7	-4.9	-6.6	46
Oakland	N. Y. Giants	6.1	6.5	5.7	41
Seattle	Philadelphia	-5.1	-3.3	-6.8	46
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	-4.8	-4.3	-5.1	39

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.7	108.7	108.9	108.7	23	9-2
Buffalo	96.8	97.1	96.9	96.9	22	6-5
N. Y. Jets	95.5	95.1	95.7	95.5	20	4-7
Miami	92.4	92.6	91.8	92.3	21	4-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.8	105.9	106.0	105.9	22	9-2
Baltimore	104.1	104.6	104.0	104.2	19	6-5
Cincinnati	98.5	99.1	98.3	98.7	17	5-6
Cleveland	90.6	91.3	90.5	90.8	19	0-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.3	101.4	101.2	101.3	21	7-4
Tennessee	97.6	97.6	97.2	97.5	23	7-4
Houston	97.1	97.1	96.9	97.0	22	4-7
Indianapolis	93.8	94.0	93.4	93.7	22	3-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.9	104.3	105.2	104.8	23	5-6
Kansas City	101.5	102.0	101.6	101.7	21	6-5
Oakland	97.9	98.5	97.1	97.8	23	5-6
Denver	95.8	95.8	95.5	95.7	20	3-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	111.0	109.4	112.3	110.9	25	10-1
Washington	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	27	5-6
Dallas	99.4	99.3	99.0	99.3	24	5-6
N.Y. Giants	94.7	95.0	94.4	94.7	18	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	104.8	104.4	105.5	104.9	18	9-2
Detroit	101.8	102.1	101.7	101.9	26	6-5
Green Bay	98.1	98.5	97.5	98.0	21	5-6
Chicago	94.6	94.8	94.7	94.7	19	3-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.2	106.6	107.6	107.1	30	8-3
Atlanta	104.3	104.1	104.6	104.3	29	7-4
Carolina	103.2	102.4	103.7	103.1	26	8-3
Tampa Bay	97.5	97.3	97.6	97.5	22	4-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.4	103.8	105.1	104.4	23	8-3
Seattle	102.9	103.1	102.5	102.8	21	7-4
Arizona	95.8	95.9	95.5	95.7	23	5-6
San Francisco	91.9	91.9	91.7	91.8	24	1-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding		AFC
1	New England	1
2	Pittsburgh	2
3	Jacksonville	3
4	LA Chargers	4
5	Baltimore	5
6	Tennessee	6
NFC Seeding		NFC
1	Philadelphia	1
2	Minnesota	2
3	LA Rams	3
4	New Orleans	4
5	Carolina	5
6	Seattle	6

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Tennessee

LA Chargers over Baltimore

LA Rams over Seattle

Carolina over New Orleans

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

Philadelphia over Carolina

LA Rams over Minnesota

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Super Bowl 52

Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 9-13, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Arizona	Seattle	-4.3	-4.5	-4.1	42
Washington	Minnesota	1.7	1.6	1.6	44
Chicago	Green Bay	-0.7	-1.4	0.0	41
Indianapolis	Pittsburgh	-9.8	-9.7	-10.3	42
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	3.4	3.6	3.4	44
Tampa Bay	N. Y. Jets	4.4	4.9	3.8	43
Tennessee	Cincinnati	3.8	2.9	3.7	40
Buffalo	New Orleans	-2.2	-1.1	-2.7	52
Detroit	Cleveland	14.3	13.9	14.4	42
LA Rams	Houston	6.2	5.7	7.0	48
Atlanta	Dallas	-0.7	0.1	-0.9	54
San Francisco	N. Y. Giants	-2.5	-2.6	-2.5	41
Denver	New England	-4.1	-4.8	-3.9	43
Carolina	Miami	9.8	9.2	10.6	43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.3	105.7	105.1	105.3	22	6-2
Buffalo	99.9	100.1	100.1	100.0	22	5-3
N. Y. Jets	95.5	95.0	95.9	95.5	20	4-5
Miami	94.4	94.4	94.0	94.3	20	4-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.7	105.9	105.9	105.9	19	6-2
Baltimore	102.3	102.9	102.1	102.4	19	4-5
Cincinnati	97.9	98.7	97.6	98.1	17	3-5
Cleveland	91.0	91.7	90.9	91.2	18	0-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.8	101.8	101.8	101.8	22	5-3
Houston	99.2	99.3	98.9	99.1	24	3-5
Tennessee	98.7	98.6	98.4	98.6	23	5-3
Indianapolis	93.5	93.7	93.0	93.4	23	3-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.2	104.6	104.5	104.4	23	6-3
LA Chargers	101.9	101.6	101.9	101.8	22	3-5
Oakland	99.0	99.4	98.4	98.9	23	4-5
Denver	98.2	97.8	98.2	98.1	21	3-5
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	107.3	105.9	108.5	107.2	25	8-1
Dallas	105.9	105.2	106.0	105.7	26	5-3
Washington	99.7	99.6	99.9	99.7	26	4-4
N.Y. Giants	95.9	96.0	95.6	95.9	17	1-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Detroit	102.8	103.0	102.8	102.9	24	4-4
Minnesota	101.0	101.0	101.3	101.1	18	6-2
Green Bay	99.3	99.8	98.7	99.3	22	4-4
Chicago	96.0	96.0	96.2	96.1	19	3-5
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	105.1	104.2	105.8	105.0	30	6-2
Atlanta	102.2	102.3	102.2	102.2	28	4-4
Carolina	101.2	100.6	101.6	101.1	23	6-3
Tampa Bay	97.0	96.9	96.8	96.9	23	2-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Seattle	103.0	103.2	102.6	102.9	20	5-3
LA Rams	102.4	102.0	102.9	102.4	24	6-2
Arizona	95.7	95.7	95.5	95.6	22	4-4
San Francisco	90.4	90.5	90.1	90.3	24	0-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Pittsburgh
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Jacksonville
5	Buffalo
6	Tennessee
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	LA Rams
3	New Orleans
4	Minnesota
5	Seattle
6	Dallas

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Tennessee

Jacksonville over Buffalo

New Orleans over Dallas

Seattle over Minnesota

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

New England over Kansas City

Philadelphia over Seattle

LA Rams over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Super Bowl 52

Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 9: November 2-6, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	-5.9	-6.5	-6.1	41
Carolina	Atlanta	1.2	0.6	1.8	52
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	8.9	8.5	9.6	54
Philadelphia	Denver	8.3	7.2	9.5	43
Jacksonville	Cincinnati	4.4	4.1	4.4	39
Tennessee	Baltimore	-1.1	-1.7	-1.5	42
Houston	Indianapolis	13.1	12.9	13.4	50
N.Y. Giants	LA Rams	4.0	4.5	3.2	37
Seattle	Washington	8.6	8.8	8.3	48
San Francisco	Arizona	-1.1	-1.4	-1.1	48
Dallas	Kansas City	3.2	2.3	2.9	49
Miami	Oakland	-1.4	-2.0	-1.2	43
Green Bay	Detroit	1.8	1.7	1.6	46

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Buffalo	101.7	101.8	102.1	101.9	22
Miami	94.5	94.4	94.1	94.3	20
New England	105.1	105.5	104.9	105.1	22
N. Y. Jets	93.7	93.3	93.9	93.7	19
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Baltimore	102.6	103.1	102.5	102.7	19
Cincinnati	99.1	99.7	99.0	99.3	17
Cleveland	90.8	91.5	90.7	91.0	18
Pittsburgh	105.5	105.7	105.7	105.7	19
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Houston	101.6	101.6	101.4	101.5	27
Indianapolis	91.5	91.8	90.9	91.4	23
Jacksonville	100.6	100.8	100.4	100.6	22
Tennessee	98.4	98.4	98.0	98.3	23
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Denver	100.1	99.7	100.1	100.0	19
Kansas City	104.9	105.3	105.3	105.2	23
LA Chargers	101.7	101.4	101.7	101.6	22
Oakland	98.9	99.4	98.3	98.9	23
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Dallas	105.2	104.5	105.2	105.0	26
N.Y. Giants	99.4	99.5	99.1	99.4	15
Philadelphia	105.4	104.0	106.6	105.3	24
Washington	98.6	98.6	98.7	98.6	27
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Chicago	95.8	95.8	96.0	95.9	19
Detroit	101.4	101.8	101.2	101.5	24
Green Bay	100.7	101.0	100.3	100.7	22
Minnesota	100.8	100.8	101.1	100.9	18
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Atlanta	102.3	102.4	102.3	102.3	28
Carolina	101.1	100.5	101.5	101.0	24
New Orleans	104.1	103.4	104.7	104.1	30
Tampa Bay	98.2	97.9	98.1	98.1	24
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Arizona	94.9	95.0	94.6	94.8	23
LA Rams	98.9	98.5	99.4	98.9	22
San Francisco	91.2	91.2	91.0	91.1	25
Seattle	104.3	104.4	104.0	104.2	21

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	New England
3	Pittsburgh
4	Jacksonville
5	Buffalo
6	Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	New Orleans
3	Seattle
4	Minnesota
5	LA Rams
6	Carolina

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh over Baltimore

Jacksonville over Buffalo

Carolina over Seattle

LA Rams over Minnesota

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Jacksonville

New England over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Carolina

LA Rams over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Super Bowl 52

Philadelphia over Kansas City

2015 AFC South Preview

Indianapolis and the Three Dwarfs:  Since the AFC South was formed, all four member teams have had their turn as the top banana, but there has been one consistent theme.  When Tennessee was dominant in the early 2000’s, the Colts were the chief competitor usually finishing a game behind or ahead of the Titans.

When Jacksonville was tough with their stable of tough running backs, it was Indianapolis that was 14-2 when the Jags were 12-4.

When Houston began to shine a few years ago, once again, their competition was the Colts.

Now, the Colts have no competition in the South.  Houston lacks a quarterback that can get them to the playoffs, and J. J. Watt cannot make 30 sacks to level the playing field.  Jacksonville has more rebuilding to do before they can even challenge for an 8-8 record.  Tennessee has been down for six years, and the Titans have as many holes in their roster as a piece of Swiss cheese.  The Colts could go 6-0 in divisional play, while the other three teams all finish 2-4.

 

Houston surprised the football world by rebounding from 2-14 to go 9-7 and almost make the playoffs.  The Texans’ schedule goes from one of the easiest with all the last place teams to one of the more difficult with two extra second place teams (Kansas City and Cincinnati instead of Oakland and Cleveland).  The Texans lose their star receiver in Andre Johnson, and Brian Hoyer passing to Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington as options to DeAndre Hopkins does not have the look of a playoff contender.

Andrew Luck compares with Peyton Manning in that he has taken over this team and led them to divisional dominance.  He also compares a little to Andy Dalton in that the Colts keep coming up short in the playoffs.  However, as we stated about Dalton, it is not his fault when the Colts’ defense gives up 45 points to the Patriots.  This year, Indianapolis’s offense is set to take a step up to the very top of the AFC.  The Colts add Andre Johnson to a roster already stocked with offensive stars.  An improved defense should give Indy a strong chance at competing for the best overall record in the AFC and a good shot at playing in February.

Jacksonville has been number 31 or 32 in the league for multiple seasons.  At one time, the Jaguars were the leading team to relocate to Los Angeles.  At one time, they were more than 21-point underdogs in a game.  Jacksonville might have been picked to contend for an 8-8 record this year had bad luck not hit this team in the Spring.  Top draft choice Dante Fowler was lost for the season with an ACL injury.  Fowler could have been the Jags’ Watt and improve the defense by a touchdown per game.  Now, they have little pass rush, and enemy quarterbacks will be a lot more comfortable on Sunday.

Tennessee puts all their eggs in the Marcus Mariota basket.  Eventually, we believe Mariota will prove to be the right choice for the Titans, but as a rookie with a vulnerable offensive line, we expect backup Zach Mettenberger to be the starter by midseason and possibly Clay Whitehurst by December.  The Titans defense made a couple of key additions by signing Brian Orakpo and adding legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau as assistant head coach.  LeBeau might wish he had retired with the liabilities in the line and in the secondary.

 

HOUSTON TEXANS

Texans Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	DeAndre Hopkins
WR	Cecil Shorts
WR	Nate Washington
TE	Garrett Graham
LT	Duane Brown
LG	Xavier Su’a-Filo
C	Ben Jones
RG	Brandon Brooks
RT	Derek Newton
QB	Brian Hoyer
HB	Alfred Blue
FB	Jay Prosch
Defense
DE	Jared Crick
DT	Vince Wilfork
DE	J. J. Watt
LB	John Simon
LB	Brian Cushing
LB	Mike Mohamed
LB	Jadeveon Clowney
CB	Kareem Jackson
S	Rahim Moore
S	Stevie Brown
CB	Johnathan Joseph
N5	A. J. Bouye
Special
Kicker	Randy Bullock
Punter	Shane Lechler
KR	Chandler Worthy
PR	Chandler Worthy

Houston Texans
Head Coach	Bill O’Brien
Off. Coordinator	George Godsey
Def. Coordinator	Romeo Crennel
2014 W-L-T	9-7-0
Pts	23.3
Opp	19.2
Ratings
PiRate	97.6
Mean	99.1
Bias	97.5
Average	98.1
Grades
Running	B+
Passing	D
Vs. Run	A
Vs. Pass	C+
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	7-9-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	11
Overall Rank	22
Postseason	No

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Colts Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Andre Johnson
WR	T. Y. Hilton
TE	Dwayne Allen
TE	Coby Fleener
LT	Anthony Costanzo
LG	Lance Louis
C	Khaled Holmes
RG	Todd Herremans
RT	Jack Mewhort
QB	Andrew Luck
HB	Frank Gore
FB	(NONE)
Defense
DE	Kendall Langford
DT	Josh Champan
DT	Arthur Jones
LB	Trent Cole
LB	Jerrell Freeman
LB	D’Qwell Jackson
LB	Erik Walden
CB	Greg Toler
S	Mike Adams
S	Dwight Lowery
CB	Vontae Davis
N5	Darius Butler
Special
Kicker	Adam Vinatiari
Punter	Pat McAfee
KR	Dan Herron
PR	Phillip Dorsett

Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach	Chuck Pagano
Off. Coordinator	Pep Hamilton
Def. Coordinator	Greg Manusky
2014 W-L-T	11-5-0
Pts	28.6
Opp	23.1
Ratings
PiRate	104.7
Mean	105.8
Bias	104.9
Average	105.1
Grades
Running	B
Passing	A+
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	B-
Predicted W-L	10-6-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	4
Overall Rank	7
Postseason	Yes

 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jaguars Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Allen Robinson
WR	Allen Hurns
TE	Julius Thomas
TE	Marcedes Lewis
LT	Luke Joeckel
LG	Zane Beadles
C	Stefen Wisniewski
RG	Brandon Linder
RT	Jermey Parnell
QB	Blake Bortles
HB	T. J. Yeldon
FB	(NONE)
Defense
DE	Andre Branch
DT	Ziggy Hood
DT	Tyson Alualu
DE	Jared Odrick
LB	Telvin Smith
LB	Paul Posluszny
LB	Dan Skuta
CB	Davon House
S	Craig Loston
S	Sergio Brown
CB	Aaron Colvin
N5	Josh Evans
Special
Kicker	Josh Scobee
Punter	Bryan Anger
KR	Denard Robinson
PR	Rashad Greene

Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach	Gus Bradley
Off. Coordinator	Greg Olson
Def. Coordinator	Bob Babich
2014 W-L-T	3-13-0
Pts	15.6
Opp	25.8
Ratings
PiRate	89.8
Mean	95.2
Bias	88.5
Average	91.2
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	D
Vs. Run	C-
Vs. Pass	C-
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C-
Predicted W-L	5-11-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	16
Overall Rank	32
Postseason	No

 

TENNESSEE TITANS

Titans Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Kendall Wright
WR	Harry Douglas
TE	Delanie Walker
TE	Anthony Fasano
LT	Taylor Lewan
LG	Byron Bell
C	Brian Schwenke
RG	Chance Warmack
RT	Jeremiah Poutasi
QB	Marcus Mariota
HB	Bishop Sankey
FB	Jalston Fowler
Defense
DE	DaQuan Jones
DT	Sammie Hill
DT	Jurrell Casey
LB	Derrick Morgan
LB	Zach Brown
LB	Avery Williamson
LB	Brian Orakpo
CB	Perrish Cox
S	Da’Norris Searcy
S	Michael Griffin
CB	Jason McCourty
N5	Coty Sensabaugh
Special
Kicker	Ryan Succop
Punter	Brett Kern
KR	Dexter McCluster
PR	Dexter McCluster

Tennessee Titans
Head Coach	Ken Whisenhunt
Off. Coordinator	Jason Michael
Def. Coordinator	Ray Horton
2014 W-L-T	2-14-0
Pts	15.9
Opp	27.4
Ratings
PiRate	93.9
Mean	93.7
Bias	94.5
Average	94.0
Grades
Running	C
Passing	C+
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	B-
Special Teams	B
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	7-9-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	14
Overall Rank	28
Postseason	No

 

2013 AFC South Preview

2013 A F C South Preview

The PiRate Ratings kickoff our coverage of the National Football League with our AFC West Division preview.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC South

 

South	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Houston Texans	Dark Blue	0	19	63
	Red	214	48	58
Indianapolis Colts	Royal Blue	0	35	149
	White	255	255	255
Jacksonville Jaguars	Teal	0	105	131
	Gold	184	139	0
	Black	17	28	36
Tennessee Titans	Navy	0	33	71
	Light Blue	75	146	219

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	WLT	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	102.9	103.6	104.0	12-4-0	416	331
Indianapolis Colts	97.0	99.6	101.4	11-5-0	357	387
Tennessee Titans	92.6	93.2	93.6	6-10-0	330	471
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.5	90.5	90.5	2-14-0	255	444

 

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Houston Texans	105.4	105.7	106.0
Indianapolis Colts	101.3	100.5	101.5
Tennessee Titans	97.5	96.0	98.1
Jacksonville Jaguars	91.9	92.0	92.3

 

PiRate Previews

Team	Houston Texans
Head Coach	Gary Kubiak
O-Coord.	Rick Dennison
D-Coord.	Wade Phillips
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Matt Schaub
Running Back	Arian Foster
Fullback	Greg Jones
Wide Receiver	Andre Johnson
Wide Receiver	DeAndre Hopkins
Tight End	Owen Daniels
Left Tackle	Duane Brown
Left Guard	Wade Smith
Center	Chris Myers
Right Guard	Brandon Brooks
Right Tackle	Derek Newton
	Defense
Left End	J. J. Watt
Nose Tackle	Earl Mitchell
Right End	Jared Crick
Left OLB	Brooks Reed
Left ILB	Brian Cushing
Right ILB	Joe Mays
Right OLB	Whitney Mercilus
Left CB	Kareem Jackson
Right CB	Johnathan Joseph
Strong Safety	Danieal Manning
Free Safety	Ed Reed
	Special Teams
Kicker	Randy Bullock
Punter	Shane Lechler
K-Return	Keshawn Martin
P-Return	Keshawn Martin
Predictions
Record	11-5
Division	1st

 

 

Team	Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach	Chuck Fagano
O-Coord.	Pep Hamilton
D-Coord.	Greg Manusky
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Andrew Luck
Running Back	Vick Ballard
Fullback	Stanley Havili
Wide Receiver	Reggie Wayne
Wide Receiver	Darrius Heyward-Bey
Tight End	Dwayne Allen
Left Tackle	Anthony Castonzo
Left Guard	Donald Thomas
Center	Samson Satele
Right Guard	Mike McGlynn
Right Tackle	Gosder Cherilus
	Defense
Left End	Cory Redding
Nose Tackle	Aubrayo Franklin
Right Tackle	Ricky Jean-Francois
Sam LB	Erik Walden
Mike LB	Pat Angerer
Will LB	Jerrell Freeman
Rush LB	Robert Mathis
Left CB	Greg Toler
Right CB	Vontae Davis
Strong Safety	Antoine Bethea
Free Safety	LaRon Landry
	Special Teams
Kicker	Adam Vinatieri
Punter	Pat McAfee
K-Return	Kerwynn Williams
P-Return	Ty Hilton
Predictions
Record	9-7
Division	2nd

 

 

Team	Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach	Gus Bradley
O-Coord.	Jedd Fisch
D-Coord.	Bob Babich
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Blaine Gabbert
Running Back	Maurice Jones-Drew
Fullback	Will Ta’ufo’ou
Wide Receiver	Cecil Shorts
Wide Receiver	Justin Blackmon
Tight End	Marcedes Lewis
Left Tackle	Eugene Monroe
Left Guard	Will Rackley
Center	Brad Meester
Right Guard	Uche Nwaneri
Right Tackle	Luke Joeckel
	Defense
Left End	Jason Babin
Left Tackle	Sen’Derrick Marks
Nose Tackle	Roy Miller
Right End	Tyson Alualu
Sam LB	Russell Allen
Mike LB	Paul Posluszny
Will LB	Geno Hayes
Left CB	Dwayne Gratz
Right CB	Alan Ball
Strong Safety	Johnathan Cyprien
Free Safety	Dwight Lowery
	Special Teams
Kicker	Josh Scobee
Punter	Bryan Anger
K-Return	Jordan Todman
P-Return	Jordan Shipley
Predictions
Record	3-13
Division	4th

 

 

Team	Tennessee Titans
Head Coach	Mike Munchak
O-Coord.	Dowell Loggains
D-Coord.	Jerry Gray
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Jake Locker
Running Back	Chris Johnson
H-Back	Craig Stevens
Wide Receiver	Nate Washington
Wide Receiver	Kenny Britt
Tight End	Delanie Walker
Left Tackle	Michael Roos
Left Guard	Andy Levitre
Center	Fernando Velasco
Right Guard	Chance Warmack
Right Tackle	David Stewart
	Defense
Left End	Derrick Morgan
Left Tackle	Sammie Hill
Right Tackle	Jurrell Casey
Right End	Kamerion Wimbley
Sam LB	Akeem Ayers
Mike LB	Colin McCarthy
Will LB	Zach Brown
Left CB	Jason McCourty
Right CB	Alterraun Verner
Strong Safety	Bernard Pollard
Free Safety	Michael Griffin
	Special Teams
Kicker	Rob Bironas
Punter	Brett Kern
K-Return	Darius Reynaud
P-Return	Darius Reynaud
Predictions
Record	5-11
Division	3rd

 

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 9 Update

Three More Tickets Punched

Horizon League Championship

Butler 59  Milwaukee 44

 The Bulldogs held Milwaukee to 30% shooting from the field, and Matt Howard connected on seven of nine shots to pace Butler with 18 points, as the defending National Final runner-up earned another spot in the Big Dance.

 Summit League Championship

Oakland 90  Oral Roberts 76 

The Golden Grizzlies displayed a great offensive show with the aid of numerous first half steals by Drew Valentine and Reggie Hamilton to build a double-digit lead by the break.  After withstanding an early second half run by the Golden Eagles, Oakland pulled away to win the automatic bid.  

Keith Benson topped Oakland with 28 points and 14 rebounds.  Hamilton added 25 with six assists, while Will Hudson recorded a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds.

 

Sunbelt Conference Championship

U A L R  64  North Texas  63 

The Trojans won their first Sunbelt Championship and earned their first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 1990.

 

SBC Player of the Year Solomon Bozeman drove from the backcourt to the left side of the top of the key and drained a three-pointer with 1.5 seconds remaining to give UALR the decisive points.  Bozeman scored a game-high 20 points. 

North Texas had led by seven points with less than two minutes to go, but the Mean Green wilted under the Trojan pressure defense.  With one last chance to try to win, UNT committed a turnover on the inbounds pass. 

11 Automatic Qualifiers To Date

Team	Conference	Record
Arkansas-Little Rock	Sunbelt	19-16
Belmont	Atlantic South	30-4
Butler	Horizon	23-9
Gonzaga	West Coast	24-9
Indiana State	Missouri Valley	20-13
Morehead State	Ohio Valley	24-9
Oakland	Summit	25-9
Old Dominion	Colonial	27-6
St. Peter’s	Metro Atlantic	20-13
UNC-Asheville	Big South	19-13
Wofford	Southern	21-12

 

Two Tickets To Be Punched Tonight

Big Sky Tournament Championship @ 9PM ET On ESPN2

#2 Montana (21-9) at #1 Northern Colorado (20-10)

 

Semifinal Round

Montana 57  Weber State 40

Northern Colorado 73  Northern Arizona 70

 

These two split their regular season series with Northern Colorado winning 63-45 in Greeley, and Montana winning 55-42 in Missoula.  Tonight’s game will be played at Butler-Hancock Hall in Greeley, so Northern Colorado will enjoy the home court advantage. 

This game is a great study in contrasts.  Northern Colorado is a quicker team, but Montana is a stronger team.  Northern Colorado has one exceptionally dominant player, while Montana has more, albeit less exceptional, weapons.

 

The Bears’ offense runs through 6-1 senior guard Devon Beitzel.  Beitzel averages a league-best 21 points per game, and he is deadly at the free throw line, where he connects on 91% of his tosses. 

The rest of the team collectively shoots under 41% from the field and commits more turnovers than assists, so if the Grizzlies can stop Beitzel, or at least limit his touches, they have a chance of defending their crown.

 

Montana has the dominant big man in the conference in 6-11/260 senior center Brian Qvale.  If the Grizzlies can keep this game a half-court affair, they stand a great chance of winning with Qvale plugging the middle on defense and controlling the boards at both ends of the court.  Qvale averages 15 points and nine boards a game, and he had a double-double with 16 points and 17 rebounds in the semifinal round.  Montana likes to limit possessions, so those numbers are even more impressive than they look. 

In the win over UNC, Montana held the Bears to 23.3% shooting, while they shot just 32.6% in the loss at Greeley.

 

It is our opinion that the visiting number two seed will pull off the mild upset over the host numbone seed, but it is not a strong feeling. 

 Northeast Conference Tournament Championship @ 7PM ET On ESPN2

#3 Robert Morris (18-13) at #1 Long Island (26-5)

Semifinal Round

Long Island 69  Central Connecticut 67

Robert Morris 64  Quinnipiac 62

Brooklyn has not been this excited over one of their own sports teams since the Dodgers won the 1955 World Series.  Long Island is one of the most exciting teams in the nation, and their 26-5 record has throngs of Brooklynites cramming into the Wellness, Recreation, and Athletic Center.  The WRAC holds just 2,500 seats, but you can bet that more than that amount will find their way into the game tonight, as they “Pack the WRAC.” 

Those fans will be converging to the corner of Ashland and Dekalb tonight, dressed in all white, to watch what could be a blowout win for their team.   

LIU is on a roll.  The Blackbirds have won 12 games in a row (longest current streak in the nation) and 20 of their previous 21 games.  They average almost 83 points per game.  The Blackbirds have exceptional depth with eight players capable of scoring 15 or more points. 

 

The Blackbirds pose difficult matchups with their roster, as they rely on quick guards and medium-sized forwards with great leaping ability to play at a fast pace.  There is no center on the roster, but the two 6-7 forwards have controlled the boards in most games this year. 

Those forwards are Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere, who team up for 25.4 points and 15.7 rebounds per game.

 5-10 backup guard Jason Brickman plays just 22 minutes per game, but he leads the team with 5.3 assists per game.  When he comes in the game, the pace picks up, and the Blackbirds shoot a lot of threes in transition.

 

Robert Morris is definitely not cannon fodder.  The Colonials are the two-time defending NEC Tournament champions, and they believe they can three peat even on the road in hostile conditions. 

The Colonials have won eight games in a row, relying on a stellar defense that limits possessions and pressures the guards.  They are missing their leading scorer, as 5-9 guard Karon Abraham’s season ended two weeks ago with a torn Achilles Tendon.  On the positive side, Abraham missed RMU’s win at LIU on December 2, as he was serving a multi-game suspension. 

Velton Jones and Russell Johnson will have to shine tonight for the Colonials to pull off the upset.  The duo are the only double figure scorers left, but both shoot less than 39% from the field. 

Without Abraham, RMU shoots just 33.7% from behind the arc, so the only way they can possibly win tonight is to replicate the formula that was successful more than three months ago—control the tempo and prevent LIU from getting off any uncontested three-pointers. 

We believe this game will begin slowly with RMU taking the lead in the early stages.  Somewhere in the first half, LIU will go on one of their patented runs and gain the lead.  Then, a second spurt will give them a commanding lead.  RMU might cut into that lead, but we believe in the end, the Blackbirds will be celebrating at the WRAC.  We do not believe the Brooklynites will be crying “Wait ‘Til Next Year.”  This will be like October of 1955 in the borough.

 

Yesterday’s Other Tournament Results

Atlantic 10 Conference

First Round

LaSalle 75  St. Bonaventure 73  2ot

St. Joseph’s 71  George Washington 59  ot

Rhode Island 70  St. Louis 61

Dayton 78  U Mass 50

 

Big East Conference

First Round

Connecticut 97  DePaul 71

Rutgers 76  Seton Hall 70 ot

South Florida 70  Villanova 69

Marquette 87  Providence 66 

M A C

First Round

Bowling Green 74  Northern Illinois 54

Ohio U 74  Toledo 57

Akron 67  Eastern Michigan 53

Buffalo 64  Central Michigan 50

 

M E A C

First Round

MD-Eastern Shore 87  F A M U 85  2ot

S. C. State 64  Delaware State 59 

Ivy League Playoff Set

Princeton defeated rival Penn 70-58 last night in Philadelphia, forcing a one-game playoff for the Ivy League’s automatic berth.  Princeton (24-6) will take on co-champion Harvard (23-5) Saturday afternoon at 4PM Eastern Time.  The game will be played at Yale University in New Haven, CT, and it can be seen live on ESPN3.com.

Princeton has appeared in all seven Ivy League tiebreaking playoff games in the history of the league.  This is Harvard’s first Ivy League basketball championship of any kind.  The Crimson last appeared in the NCAA Tournament in 1946. 

There is a chance that the loser of this game could hold a slim chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.  Harvard is ranked #35 in the RPI, while Princeton is ranked #49.  Harvard has two wins over top 50 teams as well as three losses.  Their biggest win was at Boston College.  Princeton has just one win against the top 50 and two losses.  For the Ivy to earn two bids, the Tigers have to win Saturday and hope Harvard’s high RPI is enough to earn the second bid. 

Conference Tournaments In Action Today

Big 12 Conference

Tournament Site: Kansas City

1^st Round Games

#8 Nebraska (19-11) vs. #9 Oklahoma State (18-12)  12:30 PM ET

#5 Colorado (19-12) vs. #12 Iowa State (16-15)  3 PM ET

#7 Baylor (18-12) vs. #10 Oklahoma (13-17)  7PM ET

#6 Missouri (22-9) vs. #11 Texas Tech (13-18) 9:30 PM ET 

Big East Conference

Tournament Site: New York City

2^nd Round Games

#8 Georgetown (21-9) vs. #9 Connecticut (22-9)  12 Noon ET on ESPN

#5 St. John’s (20-10) vs. #13 Rutgers (15-16)  Approx. 2:15 PM ET on ESPN

#7 Cincinnati (24-7) vs. #15 South Florida (10-22)  7 PM ET on ESPN

#6 West Virginia (20-10) vs. #11 Marquette (19-13)  Approx. 9:15 PM ET on ESPN 

Conference USA

Tournament Site: El Paso, TX

1^st Round Games

#8 East Carolina (16-14) vs. #9 Central Florida (19-10)  1 PM ET

#5 Southern Miss (21-9) vs. #12 Tulane (13-16)  3:30 PM ET

#6 Marshall (21-10) vs. #11 Houston (12-17)  7:30 PM ET

#7 S M U (17-13) vs. #10 Rice (13-17)  10 PM ET 

M E A C

Tournament Site: Winston-Salem, NC

Note: The MEAC has a unique way of scheduling their tournament.  As a result, one first round game will be played today as well as two quarterfinal round games.  The other two quarterfinal round games will be played Thursday. 

1^st Round

#6 Norfolk State () vs. #11 Howard ()  3 PM ET

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman (20-11) vs. #9 South Carolina State (10-21)  7 PM ET

#2 Hampton (21-8) vs. #10 Maryland-Eastern Shore (9-21)  9:30 PM ET 

Mountain West Conference

Tournament Site: Las Vegas

1^st Round

#8 Wyoming (10-20) vs. #9 T C U (10-21)  5 PM ET 

Pac-10 Conference

Tournament Site: Los Angeles

1^st Round

#8 Stanford (15-15) vs. #9 Oregon State (10-19)  9 PM ET on Fox Sports Net

#7 Oregon (14-16) vs. #10 Arizona State (12-18)  11:30 PM ET on Fox Sports Net 

Southland Conference

Tournament Site: Katy, TX (Houston Area)

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Northwestern State (LA) (18-13) vs. #7 Texas-San Antonio (16-13)  1 PM ET

#3 Sam Houston (17-12) vs. #6 Stephen F. Austin (18-10)  3:30 PM ET

#1 McNeese State (19-10) vs. #8 Nicholls State (14-13)  7 PM ET

#4 Texas State (15-15) vs. #5 Southeastern Louisiana (15-13)  9:30 PM ET 

S W A C

Tournament Site: Garland, TX (Dallas-Ft. Worth Area) 

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Jackson State (16-14) vs. #7 Prairie View (10-21)  12:30 PM ET

#1 Texas Southern (18-11) vs. #8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (7-23)  9 PM ET

W A C

Tournament Site: Las Vegas

1^st Round

#5 Hawaii (18-11) vs. #8 San Jose State (15-14)  3 PM ET

#6 Nevada (12-18) vs. #7 Fresno State (14-16)  5:30 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 8 Update

 

The Four Newest Dance Invitees

Did you see those conference championship games last night?  Was this the Monday Night Fights or basketball?  There were more cut men and cut women than in your average boxing card.

 

When it is all or nothing for these smaller conferences, you get what we saw last night—teams playing like their lives were on the line.

 

Colonial Athletic Association

Old Dominion 70

Virginia Commonwealth 65

 

Old Dominion 27-6

 

The Monarchs are capable of making a semi-surprise run in the Big Dance.  They lead the nation in rebounding margin, and they can score points in the paint. 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

St. Peter’s 62

Iona 57

 

St. Peter’s 20-13

 

The Peacocks beat Alabama earlier in the season, and their defense could keep them within striking defense in an opening round game, but we cannot see SPC advancing to the second round.

 

Southern Conference

Wofford 77

College of Charleston 67

 

Wofford 21-12

 

The Terriers finally beat the Cougars (we predicted this yesterday), and they will not roll over and play dead in the first round.  This team returns to the Dance for the second consecutive season, and they will not back down.  They may not advance, but they will not be in awe of their heavily favored first round opponent.

 

West Coast Conference

Gonzaga 75

Saint Mary’s 63

 

Gonzaga 24-9

 

This edition of Zags may not be the most talented in the Coach Mark Few era, but they are playing their best ball at the right time.  It will depend on their bracket, but this team has Sweet 16 potential.

 

Three More Invitations Go Out Tonight

By 11:15 PM Eastern Time tonight, we will know the names of three more NCAA Tournament participants.  Let’s break down these games.

 

Horizon League Championship @ 9PM ET on ESPN

Butler (22-9)  at  Milwaukee (19-12)

 

Butler defeated Cleveland State in the semifinal round Saturday evening, while Milwaukee topped Valparaiso.  During the regular season, Milwaukee swept the Bulldogs, winning 76-52 at home and 86-80 in overtime on the road.  The top-seeded Panthers host this game.

 

Both teams are red hot coming into this title match.  Milwaukee has gone 10-1 in their last 11 games, and the only loss was in the Bracketbuster to Buffalo.  Their defense is what got them here, as they shoot only 43% from the field and 65% at the foul line.

 

Three Panthers average double figures in scoring, led by Anthony Hill.  Hill averages just under 16 points per game, but he broke out with a 24-point, 11-rebound performance in the semifinal game against Valpo.  Kaylon Williams is the X-factor for Panthers.  He can score when needed, rebound with the big men, and run the offense.  He recorded a triple-double earlier in the season against Butler (10 points-10 rebounds-10 assists), and he added a double-double in the second win over the Bulldogs.

 

Butler missed Gordon Hayward even more than most experts predicted.  The Bulldogs played a tough pre-conference schedule and limped into February.  With their backs against the wall, they reeled off eight consecutive victories to get to the title game tonight.

 

Most basketball fans know Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack from last year’s team that made the surprise run to the National Championship Game.  The duo has teamed for 32 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this year.  However, it has been the emergence of 6-11 sophomore center Andrew Smith that has allowed Butler to turn things around and look like a force to be reckoned with once again.  Smith averaged 11 points per game over the second half of the season.  In the eight game winning streak, he has averaged 32 minutes per game and pulled down close to eight rebounds per game.  His 63% field goal percentage has forced defenses to stop him first, giving Howard and Mack more room to get open.  Smith was a non-factor in the two games against Milwaukee, and he is the key to tonight’s game.  If he plays 32 minutes and gets double figure points and eight rebounds, Butler will be cutting down the nets yet again.

 

Summit League Championship @ 9PM ET on ESPN2

Site: Sioux Falls, SD

Oakland (24-9)  vs. Oral Roberts (19-14)

 

If you like high-scoring, fast-paced games, you will definitely clear your schedule to view this one.  Oakland is the second best offensive team in the nation, averaging 86 points per game (92 ppg in their last 10 games).  The Grizzlies connect on close to 50% of their field goal attempts, and they tend to hit spurts where they score 10 points in two minutes.  Oral Roberts averages 81 points per game and has no qualms running with Oakland.

 

Both teams are riding major winning streaks entering tonight’s title game.  Oakland has won 17 of their last 18 games, while the Golden Eagles have won 10 in a row.  In the regular season, Oakland won both high-scoring games, but both were nail-biters that went down to the wire. 

 

Oakland has a tall and short combination that has done a lot of the damage on opponents.  6-11 center Keith Benson is the best player in the league.  Benson averages 17.7 points and 10 rebounds per game.  He showed he can do it against the big schools, as he had 17 points and 12 rebounds in a close loss to Michigan State and 26 points and 10 rebounds in a big win at Tennessee. 

 

5-11 guard Reggie Hamilton is a threat to top 20 points any night.  He is quick and can get open without help from screens.

 

Oral Roberts has a star in its own right.  Dominique Morrison averages just under 20 points per game, and he doesn’t need to heave up 25 shots per game to get those points.  Morrison shoots 51.3% from the field, 40% from behind the three-point line, and 78.4% at the foul line.  He scored 56 points in the two games against Oakland.

 

This should be a great game, and we don’t believe Oakland is that much of a favorite.  ORU has been to the Big Dance four times in the last six years, while Oakland is the defending tournament champion.  We expect the winner to top 90 points in this game, and it is too close to call.  We say Oakland has about a 54% chance and Oral Roberts a 46% chance of winning.

 

Sunbelt Conference Championship @ 7PM ET on ESPN2

Site: Hot Springs, AR

 

North Texas (22-10)  vs. U A L R (18-16)

 

On paper this looks like a mismatch, even though the teams finished one game apart in the regular season.  North Texas finished fourth in the West with an 8-8 league mark, while Little Rock finished fifth at 7-9.

 

North Texas was one of the biggest underachievers this season.  The Mean Green returned four starters from their 2010 conference champion team and were expected to win again this year with the best backcourt and one of the best frontcourts in the league.  Instead, a 3-9 swoon in the middle of the season placed them out of contention for the West crown.  Since that awful slide, UNT has recovered with five consecutive victories.

 

6-5 senior guard Tristan Thompson has led the way for the Mean Green in the tournament, scoring 80 points in the first three games.  He has done a lot of the damage at the foul line, where he is 31-35 in Hot Springs, including an unbelievable 20-20 performance in the win over top-seed Florida Atlantic.  Thompson combines a quick move to the basket with a sweet shot from outside.  Beefy forward George Odufuwa averages 11 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, and UALR has a tough matchup problem against him.

 

The Trojans dropped both regular season games to North Texas, mostly because they could not compete under the basket.  Their chance to win this game will come down to limiting possessions and trying to win 55-50.  They have won three games in the tournament by getting to the foul line and hitting foul shots, while using the clock and taking 30 seconds to shoot on most possessions.  UALR’s big star in this tournament has been senior guard Solomon Bozeman.  Like Thompson, Bozeman has gotten to the free throw line and made the most of his opportunities.  He has connected on 37 of 42 attempts including an eye-popping 19 of 22 against Middle Tennessee last night.

 

We expect a low-possession, low-scoring game.  There may be fewer than 100 field goal attempts tonight.  North Texas has been there before, while UALR has never won the Sunbelt Conference Tournament.  We think that trend will continue, but it wouldn’t surprise us if this game stays relatively close for the entire 40 minutes.  We could see North Texas winning 60-54.

 

The Other Tournaments In Action Today

 

Atlantic 10 Conference

First Round At Higher Seed Home Court

 

#9 Dayton (19-12) at #8 U Mass (15-14)  9PM ET on CBSC

#12 St. Joseph’s (9-21) at #5 George Washington (17-13)  7PM ET on CBSC

#10 LaSalle (14-17) at #7 St. Bonaventure (16-13)  5 PM ET on CBSC

#11 St. Louis (12-18) at #6 Rhode Island (18-12)  7 PM ET no TV

 

Big East Conference

Madison Square Garden in New York City

 

#16 Depaul (7-23) vs. #9 Georgetown (21-9) 12 Noon ET on ESPN2

#13 Rutgers (14-16) vs. #12 Seton Hall (13-17) Approx. 2:15 PM ET on ESPN2

#15 South Florida (9-22) vs. #10 Villanova (21-10) 7PM ET on ESPNU

#14 Providence (15-16) vs. #11 Marquette (18-13) Approx 9:15 ET on ESPNU

 

Big Sky Conference

Semifinal Round At Higher Seed Home Court

#3 Weber State (18-11) at #2 Montana (20-9)

#4 Northern Arizona (19-11) at #1 Northern Colorado (19-10)

 

Mid-American Conference

1^st Round At Higher Seed Home Court  All Games At 7PM ET

 

#10 Northern Illinois (9-20) at #7 Bowling Green (13-18)

#11 Eastern Michigan (9-21) at #6 Akron (19-12)

#9 Central Michigan (10-20) at #8 Buffalo (17-12)

#12 Toledo (4-27) at #5 Ohio U (17-14)

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Lawrence Joel Coliseum in Winston-Salem, NC

 

#9 South Carolina State (9-21) vs. #8 Delaware State (9-20)  9PM ET

#10 Maryland-Eastern Shore (8-21) vs. #7 Florida A&M (12-19)  6:30 PM ET

 

Note: One more 1^st round game Wednesday plus two quarterfinal games

 

 

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 7 Update

NCAA Tournament Qualifier #4

Congratulations to the Indiana State Sycamores, the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament champions.  ISU defeated Missouri State Sunday by a score of 60-56, giving them eight wins in their last nine games.  This Sycamore team is not to be confused with the 1979 National Finalists with some guy named Larry Bird doing a lot of the scoring, but ISU (20-13) has enough talent to pull off an upset in the first round.  The last time they were in the Big Dance, ISU upset Oklahoma 70-68 in the first round of the 2001 tourney; they lost 85-68 to Gonzaga in the next round.  The Sycamores lost by nine at Notre Dame and by 13 against Purdue, so they can compete against Top 10 teams.

 

Indiana State joins UNC-Asheville, Belmont, and Morehead State as automatic qualifiers in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Four More Teams To Enter The Dance Party Tonight

The field of automatic qualifiers doubles from four to eight tonight.  Let’s take a look at the four conference championships for Monday.

 

Colonial Athletic Association

Virginia Commonwealth (23-10)  vs. Old Dominion (26-6)

7:00 PM EST on ESPN

 

In the semifinal round, VCU upset top-seed George Mason 79-63, while Old Dominion ousted Hofstra 77-69.  Bubble teams will be cheering hard for ODU because if VCU wins, the CAA could send an extra team to the Dance.  George Mason and ODU are virtually assured at-large spots, but VCU will be College Insiders, CBI or NIT-bound if they lose tonight.

 

ODU has won eight games in a row and 12 of 13.  Big forward Frank Hassell has continued to improve and impress down below, and Notre Dame can tell you how well he plays in the postseason; ODU beat the Irish in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament.

 

VCU slumped at the end of the regular season, losing four of their final five games (and the one win was in the Bracketbuster) to fall from first to fourth.  The Rams won nine games in a row in the middle of the season, including a road victory over their opponent tonight. 

 

Forward Jamie Skeen will be the key man to watch.  If he can match or beat Hassell point-for-point and rebound-for-rebound, VCU should pull off the victory.  If Hassell wins the battle, then the Monarchs will live up to their preseason billing as best in the league. 

 

If the game comes down to the backcourt, then VCU has the superior tandem there with Bradford Burgess and Joey Rodriguez.  If the battle comes down to the rebounding game, ODU will win and maybe win by 10-20 points.

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

St. Peter’s (19-13)  vs.  Iona (22-10)

7:00 PM EST on ESPN2

 

St. Peter’s pulled off the big upset in this tournament, defeating #1-seed Fairfield 62-48 in yesterday’s semifinal round.  Iona slaughtered Rider 83-59 to earn their spot in the championship game.  The Gaels won their opener by 30 over Siena, so they are the clear-cut favorite tonight.

 

St. Peter’s is an experienced team.  The Peacocks’ top four players are seniors—Wesley Jenkins, Jeron Belin, Nick Leon, and Ryan Bacon.  The quartet averages a combined 45 points a game with all four averaging more than 10 points a game.  Their strongest asset is their defensive ability, and teams have a tough time scoring on SPU.  Unfortunately, the Peacocks barely top 40% shooting from the field and less than 64% at the foul line.  To win tonight, they need to connect on at least 45% of their shots and get some second chance opportunities.

 

Iona has the look of a champion.  The Gaels have won nine games in a row by an average margin of 18.6 points per game.  They swept SPU by 18 and 14 in the regular season.  Star forward Michael Glover has recorded 17 double-doubles, and the only thing that could prevent him from making it 18 tonight would be his early exit from the game due to the game being a blowout.

 

As you can surmise, we think Iona will put this game away with a big run about halfway into the opening half after a five to eight-minute period to calm the nerves.

 

Southern Conference

College of Charleston (24-9)  vs.  Wofford (20-12)

9:00 PM EST on ESPN2

 

Semifinal Scores

College of Charleston 63  Furman 58

Wofford 86  Western Carolina 72

 

The top two teams in the league meet for the third time and Charleston won the first two meetings.  The Cougars won the battle on the boards in both games and in turn took several more shots.  Andrew Goudelock was unstoppable in both games, and Wofford must do something to keep the ball out of his hands tonight and prevent him from scoring his average of 23 points per game to have a chance.

 

The Terriers are the defending SoCon Tournament champions, and they were the overwhelming pick to repeat as champions this year.  They will need a repeat of yesterday’s performance to pull off the upset.  Wofford connected on 54% of their field goals, 50% of their three-point attempts, and 80% at the foul line.  Their big three, Noah Dahlman, Jamar Diggs, and Cameron Rundles, teamed for 52 points and 16 rebounds.  Wofford also has excellent depth with three players capable of coming off the bench and scoring points and pulling down rebounds in massive numbers.

 

Charleston proved to be the better team in the regular season sweep, but we tend to believe this night will belong to Wofford.  The Terriers are playing up to their potential, while the Cougars are not. 

 

West Coast Conference

Saint Mary’s (24-7)  vs. Gonzaga (23-9)

9:00 PM EST on ESPN

 

Semifinal Round

Saint Mary’s 73  Santa Clara 64

Gonzaga 71  San Francisco 67

 

This is the game of the night.  We tend to believe both teams have done enough to punch a ticket to the tournament, but still, this will be a hard-fought rivalry game.

 

The teams split their regular season series, both winning close games on the other’s home court.  If you like offense, then this is the game for you.  Both teams routinely top 80 points per game, and both have enjoyed many nights where they shot in excess of 50% from the field.

 

Gonzaga has won eight games in a row, and the Bulldogs utilize great depth to wear down opponents.  They can go 10-deep with very little drop in talent, as no player averages over 14 points per game, and only one tops six rebounds per game. 

 

SMC relies on a trio of talented players in Mickey McConnell, Rob Jones, and Matthew Dellavedova.  They team up to average 43.3 points per game.  McConnell is one of the best outside shooters in the nation, and he is virtually automatic at the charity stripe.

 

This game is a tossup in the truest since, and we expect it to go down to the final minute for the third time this season.  They could not settle it in 40 minutes the last time they faced off, so this has to be considered a 50-50 game.  We will go with Gonzaga’s 50% chance tonight.

 

Continuing Tournaments

America East Conference

Semifinal Round

Boston U. 55  Hartford 49

Stony Brook 69  Vermont 47

 

Championship Game—Saturday, March 12@ 12 Noon on ESPN2

Stony Brook (15-16) at Boston U (20-13)

 

Northeast Conference

Semifinal Round

Long Island 69  Central Connecticut 67

Robert Morris 64  Quinnipiac 62

 

Championship Game—Wednesday, March 9 @ 7PM on ESPN2

Robert Morris (18-13) at Long Island (26-5)

 

Patriot League

Semifinal Round

Lafayette 73  American 71  2ot

Bucknell 66  Lehigh 64

 

Championship Game—Friday, March 11 @ 4:45 PM on ESPN2

Lafayette (13-18) at Bucknell (24-8)

 

Summit League

Quarterfinal Round

South Dakota State  85  I P F W  75

I U P U I  79  Missouri-KC  55 

 

Semifinal Round—Monday, March 7 @ Sioux Falls, SD

Oakland (23-9)  vs.  South Dakota State (19-11) @ 7:00 PM EST

Oral Roberts (18-14)  vs.  I U P U I (19-13) @ 9:30 PM EST

 

Sunbelt Conference

Quarterfinal Round

Western Kentucky 81  Louisiana-Lafayette 76

North Texas 78  Florida Atlantic 64

Middle Tennessee 73  Florida International 38

U A L R  59  Arkansas State 52

 

Semifinal Round—Monday, March 7 @ Hot Springs, AR

Western Kentucky (16-15)  vs. North Texas (21-10) @ 7:00 PM EST

Middle Tennessee (16-15)  vs.  U A L R (17-16) @ 9:30 PM EST

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Big Sky Conference and Horizon League Tournament Championships are decided, and four more conference tournaments begin.  Check back Tuesday afternoon for more coverage.

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 6 Update

Congratulations To Three Champions

Three teams have punched their tickets to the Big Dance.

 

Big South Conference

UNC-Asheville 60  Coastal Carolina 47

 

UNC-Asheville 19-13

 

Atlantic Sun Conference

Belmont 87  North Florida 46

 

Belmont 30-4

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Morehead State 80  Tennessee Tech 73

 

Morehead State 24-9

 

Scores From Other Conference Tournaments

 

America East Conference

Vermont 57  Binghamton 46

Stony Brook 67  Albany 61

Boston U 69  New Hampshire 60

Hartford 66  Maine 63

 

Sunday, March 6 Semifinal Round

Vermont 23-7  vs. Stony Brook 14-16

Boston U. 19-13  vs. Hartford 11-19

 

Big Sky Conference

Weber State 79  Eastern Washington 70

Northern Arizona 65  Montana State 62

 

Tuesday, March 8 Semifinal Round

Montana 20-9  vs. Weber State 18-11

Northern Colorado 19-10  vs. Northern Arizona 19-11

 

Colonial Athletic Association

George Mason 68  Georgia State 45

Virginia Commonwealth 62  Drexel 60

Old Dominion 59  Delaware 50

Hofstra 72  William & Mary 56

 

Sunday, March 6 Semifinal Round

George Mason 26-5  vs.  Virginia Commonwealth 22-10

Old Dominion 25-6  vs. Hofstra 21-10

 

Horizon League

Butler 76  Cleveland State 68

Milwaukee 70  Valparaiso 63

 

Tuesday, March 8 Championship Game

Butler 22-9  vs. Milwaukee 19-12

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Fairfield 55  Marist 31

St. Peter’s 70  Loyola (MD) 60

Rider 79  Canisius 64

Iona 94  Siena 64

 

Sunday, March 6 Semifinal Round

Fairfield 24-6  vs. St. Peter’s 18-13

Rider 23-9  vs. Iona 21-10

 

Missouri Valley Conference

Missouri State 60  Creighton 50

Indiana State 61  Wichita State 54

 

Sunday, March 6 Championship Game

Missouri State 25-7  vs. Indiana State 19-13

 

Southern Conference

Western Carolina 77 UNC-Greensboro 66

Wofford 67  Appalachian State 56

Furman 61  Chattanooga 52

College of Charleston 78  Elon 60

 

Sunday, March 6 Semifinal Round

Western Carolina 18-14  vs. Wofford 19-12

Furman 22-9  vs. College of Charleston 23-9

 

Summit League

Oakland 82  Southern Utah 66

Oral Roberts 72  North Dakota State 65

 

Sunday, March 6 Quarterfinal Round Continues

I P F W  18-11  vs. South Dakota State 18-11

I U P U I  18-13  vs. Missouri-Kansas City 16-13

 

Sunbelt Conference

Western Kentucky 66  Louisiana-Monroe 50

North Texas 83  Troy 69

Florida Int’l 53  Denver 49

U A L R  82  South Alabama 68

 

Sunday, March 6 Quarterfinal Round

Louisiana-Lafayette 14-14  vs. Western Kentucky 15-15

Florida Atlantic 21-9  vs. North Texas 20-10

Middle Tennessee 15-15  vs. Florida Int’l  11-18

Arkansas State 17-14  vs. U A L R  16-16

 

West Coast Conference

Santa Clara 76  Loyola Marymount 68

San Francisco 76  Pepperdine 59

 

Sunday, March 6 Semifinal Round

St. Mary’s 23-7  vs. Santa Clara 19-13

Gonzaga 22-9  vs. San Francisco 17-13