A PiRate Look At The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Game–April 6, 2008
Game Time: Monday, April 7, 2008, 9:21 PM EDT, San Antonio, TX
Television: CBS Network
Radio: Westwood One Radio Affiliates, including (some cities may have two affiliates, but it will air on just one of them-check prior to tip-off):
New York City: WEPN 1050-AM
Los Angeles/San Diego/San Bernardino: XEPE 1700-AM
Chicago: WMVP 1000-AM
Dallas-Ft. Worth: KESM 103.3-FM
Philadelphia: WPEN 950-AM
Houston: KTRH 740-AM/ KBME 790-AM
Miami: WQAM 560-AM
Washington, D.C.: WTEM 980-AM
Atlanta: WCNN 680-AM
Boston: WEEI 850-AM
Detroit: WXYT 1270-AM/97.1-FM
San Francisco: KNBR 680-AM
Phoenix: KGME 910-AM
Seattle: KJR 950-AM
Minneapolis-St. Paul: KFAN 1130-AM/KFXN 950-AM
St. Louis: KMOX 1120-AM/KFNS 590-AM
Baltimore: WBAL 1090-AM
Denver: KKFN 950-AM/KEPN 1600-AM
Portland, OR: WFXX 1080-AM
Cincinnati: WCKY 1530-AM
Cleveland: WKNR 850-AM/WWGK 1540-AM
www.westwoodone.com has a live listen link as well
Teams
University of Memphis Tigers, Memphis, TN
Colors: Blue and Gray
Coach: John Calipari 182-63 in 8 years at Memphis 375-134 in 16 seasons overall
Assistant Coach: Derek Kellogg
Assistant Coach: John Robic
Assistant Coach: Jose “Chuck” Martin
2008 Record: 38-1
UT-Martin 102-71
Richmond 80-63
Oklahoma (n) 63-53
Connecticut (n) 81-70
Arkansas State 84-63
Austin Peay 104-82
Southern Cal (n) 62-58 ot
@ Middle Tennessee 65-41
@ Cincinnati 79-69
Georgetown 85-71
Arizona 76-63
Siena 102-58
Pepperdine 90-53
East Carolina 99-58
@ Marshall 68-45
@ Rice 77-50
Southern Miss. 83-47
@ Tulsa 56-41
Gonzaga 81-73
@ Houston 89-77
UTEP 70-64
SMU 77-48
Central Florida 85-64
Houston 68-59
@ UAB 79-78
@ Tulane 97-71
Tennessee 62-66
Tulsa 82-67
@ Southern Miss. 76-67
@ SMU 72-55
UAB 94-56
Tulane (cusa) 75-56
Southern Miss (cusa) 69-53
Tulsa (cusa) 77-51
NCAA Tournament
UT-Arlington 87-63
Mississippi State 77-74
Michigan State 92-74
Texas 85-67
UCLA 78-63
PPG 80.2
PPG allowed 61.6
FG % 46.7
FG % Defense 38.7
3pt % 35.1
3pt % Defense 30.3
FT % 61.3
Rebound Avg. 40.8
Opp. Rebound 34.2
Turnovers 11.7
Opp. Turnovers 15.8
Steals 8.4
R + T (*) 14.9
PiRate (^) 19
SOS (#) 57.49
(*): This is my special rating to determine extra scoring opportunities. The formula for R+T is: R+T = R + ((.2*S) * (1.2*T)), where R = Rebound Margin, S = Avg. Steals per game, and T = Turnover Margin. For Additional Info, see my articles of March 17 and March 18, 2008.
(^): The PiRate Score awards points based on scoring margin, field goal percentage difference, rebounding and turnover margins, and R+T. A look at the last 200 Final Four teams showed more than 80% of them scoring 12 or above in this stat. It is actually used to pick teams with the best chance of advancing to the Final Four from the original field, but it is included herein.
(#): SOS = strength of schedule. For the last few years, I have been using the SOS from CBS.Sportsline.Com and multiplying by 100 to get this value. I have surmised that these numbers can be used to gauge, by taking the difference, the average number of points per game one schedule is from another. Thus a PiRate score of 15 versus one of 18 can be considered equal if PiRate 15 has a SOS that is 6 points better than PiRate 18.
Starting Lineup
Note: Positions given may differ from player’s recognized position. Some teams consider their five starters to be different from the five historical positions, while I list them by the positions they play on the offensive end of the floor.
Center: #3 Joey Dorsey, 6-9 260 Sr.
6.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 64.0% FG, 0-1 3pt, 37.8% FT, 0.5 ast, 1.9 blk, 1.1 stl
Strengths: Powerful inside player who can hit the offensive glass and get easy putbacks. Excellent defender in the post. Can run the fast break and finish like a smaller player.
Weaknesses: Foul-prone. Has very little offensive game outside of 6 feet, and a terrible foul shooter.
Power Forward: #2 Robert Dozier, 6-9 215 Jr.
9.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 44.3% FG, 29.0% 3pt, 67.5% FT, 1.0 ast, 1.9 blk, 1.1 stl
Strengths: Aside from shot blocking, he alters shots with his long arms. He can rebound on both ends of the floor and gets a lot of junk baskets with his offensive rebounding skills. He can hit the jumper out to 15 feet.
Weaknesses: Doesn’t move well away from the ball. Can become foul-prone. Shot selection can be suspect.
Small Forward: #14 Chris Douglas-Roberts, 6-6 200 Jr.
18.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 54.4% FG, 44.3% 3pt, 71.4% FT, 1.8 ast. 0.5 blk, 1.2 stl
Strengths: Excellent at creating offense by moving with and without the ball. Good jump-shooter with a threat to drive to the hoop if being overplayed. Good position defense. Excellent on the fast break.
Weaknesses: Can be taken to the basket by more powerful frontcourt players. Can steal the ball from him when he drives to the basket.
Shooting Guard: #5 Antonio Anderson, 6-6 200 Jr.
8.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 41.0% FG, 33.6% 3pt, 57.7% FT, 3.5 ast, 0.3 blk, 1.2 stl
Strengths: Best defender on the team and one of the best in the nation. Can play any of the three backcourt positions. Good first step in drives to the basket. Strong passer.
Weaknesses: Outside shooting is suspect.
Point Guard: #23 Derrick Rose, 6-4 195 Fr.
14.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 48.0% FG, 34.7% 3pt, 71.1% FT, 4.6 ast, 0.4 blk, 1.2 stl
Strengths: The entire package! Rose is Magic Johnson minus four inches. Outside shooing is good and improving; ability to drive to the hoop is outstanding. Runs the offense as competently as any other collegian, and he’s just a freshman.
Weaknesses: Can begin to hurry when opponents slow the tempo down.
Key Reserves
#20 Doneal Mack, 6-5 170 So. G/F
7.1 ppg. 1.7 rpg, 39.0% FG, 36.5% 3pt, 66.7% FT, 12.7 minutes/G
#0 Shawn Taggart, 6-3 230 So. F/C
6.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 50.9% FG, 37.0% 3pt, 64.6% FT, 16.9 minutes/G
#1 Willie Kemp, 6-2 165 So. G
5.2 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 38.3% FG, 36.7% 3pt, 64.0% FT, 14.1 minutes/G
University of Kansas Jayhawks, Lawrence, KS
Colors: Crimson and Blue
Coach: Bill Self 141-32 in 5 years at Kansas 348-137 in 15 years overall
Assistant Coach: Danny Manning
Assistant Coach: Joe Dooley
Assistant Coach: Kurtis Townsend
2008 Record: 36-3
UL-Monroe 107-78
Missouri-KC 85-62
Washburn 92-60
Northern Arizona 87-46
Arizona 76-72 ot
Fla. Atlantic 87-49
@ Southern Cal 59-55
Eastern Washington 85-47
DePaul 84-66
Ohio U 88-51
@ Georgia Tech 71-66
Miami (FL) 78-54
Yale 86-53
@ Boston College 85-60
Loyola (MD) 90-60
@ Nebraska 79-58
Oklahoma 85-55
@ Missouri 76-70
Iowa State 83-59
Nebraska 84-49
@ Kansas State 75-84
@ Colorado 72-59
Missouri 90-71
Baylor 100-90
@ Texas 69-72
Colorado 69-45
@ Oklahoma State 60-61
@ Iowa State 75-64
Kansas State 88-74
Texas Tech 109-51
@ Texas A&M 72-55
Nebraska (B12) 64-54
Texas A&M (B12) 77-71
Texas (B12) 84-74
NCAA Tournament
Portland State 85-61
UNLV 75-56
Villanova 72-57
Davidson 59-57
North Carolina 84-66
PPG 80.7
PPG allowed 61.3
FG % 50.8
FG % Defense 37.9
3pt % 39.9
3pt % Defense 32.9
FT % 69.8
Rebound Avg. 38.7
Opp. Rebound 30.9
Turnovers 13.1
Opp. Turnovers 15.6
Steals 8.8
R + T (*) 13.1
PiRate (^) 19
SOS (#) 55.94
Starting Lineup
Center: #00 Darrell Arthur, 6-9 225 So.
12.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 53.8% FG, 16.7% 3pt, 69.6% FT, 0.8 ast, 1.4 blk, 0.5 stl
Strengths: Great leaper with speed and quickness. Decent shooting range up to 15 feet. Excellent low post moves and inside shooting touch.
Weaknesses: Major problem with committing fouls. Good defenders can steal the ball from him when he drives to the basket.
Power Forward: #32 Darnell Jackson, 6-8, 250 Sr.
11.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 62.5% FG, 2-6 3pt, 68.7% FT, 1.1 ast, 0.5 blk, 0.8 stl
Strengths: Tough inside player who can rebound the ball and get second-chance points. Good post defender when it comes to preventing the ball from entering the post. Doesn’t make silly mistakes.
Weaknesses: Not much quickness may allow Dozier to have a much better than normal game. Defense is not great once opponent gets ball in the low post.
Small Forward: #25 Brandon Rush, 6-6 210 Jr.
13.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 43.2% FG, 42.3% 3pt, 78.3% FT, 2.1 ast, 0.8 blk, 0.8 stl
Strengths: Plays taller than 6-6. Has excellent speed and quickness. Excellent shooting range to the NBA 3-point line. Very tough perimeter defender who can also guard a bigger opponent.
Weaknesses: Not much explosiveness to the hoop when he has the ball. If forced to go to the left, he just about won’t shoot or drive.
Shooting Guard: #15 Mario Chalmers, 6-1 190 Jr.
12.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 52.1% FG, 47.3% 3pt, 73.4% FT, 4.4 ast, 0.6 blk, 2.4 stl
Strengths: Great shooting range. Excellent passing skills, strong on the ball defender and has tricky quickness to jump in passing lanes.
Weaknesses: Not a great ball-handler for his position and could be prone into making turnovers against Memphis’s pressure defense.
Point Guard: #3 Russell Robinson, 6-1 205 Sr.
7.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 42.1% FG, 31.8% 3pt, 77.9% FT, 4.1 ast, 0.4 blk, 2.0 stl
Strengths: One of the best defensive players in college ball. Can smother a high-scoring opponent. Plays intelligently and won’t make many mistakes,
Weaknesses: Not a great shooter.
Key Reserves
#4 Sherron Collins, 5-11 205 So. G
9.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 46.5% FG, 36.6% 3pt, 76.8% FT, 23.5 minutes/G
#24 Sasha Kaun, 6-11 250 Sr. C
7.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 62.6% FG, 0 3pt, 54.1% FT, 17.6 minutes/G
#45 Cole Aldrich, 6-11 240 Fr. C
2.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 51.8% FG, 0 3pt, 68.4% FT, 8.4 minutes/G
Predictions
Las Vegas Spread: Memphis by 1 ½ points with Over/Under of 146.5 points.
PiRate System: About the same-Memphis by a tiny amount
My personal thoughts: This game will be decided by the pace of the backcourts. If Kansas’s outstanding perimeter defenders repeat their performance of the last game against North Carolina, they will slow Memphis down.
Depth could be a factor, but with the extra timeouts, Kansas won’t feel the effects of not having Rodrick Stewart, while Memphis won’t miss a beat without Andre Allen.
If I had to make a pick against the spread, I’d go with KU at +1.5 and Under 146.5.
I picked Kansas to win the National Championship before the season and before the start of March Madness, so I’m sticking with the Jayhawks to cut the nets. Enjoy!
This is the last blog entry for a month. Look for a Kentucky Derby Preview on Friday, May 2.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 