The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 22, 2021

Southeastern Conference Preview

On July 21, 2021, the future of college football was forever changed.  In a year where the Name, Image, and Likeness ruling in favor of the players allowed college athletes to enter the highest tax bracket and changed the definition of, or ended, amateurism; in a year, where every player was allowed to return to his team with the same amount of remaining eligibility as last year; in a year where the Transfer Portal created college football free agency; and in a year where the NCAA basically threw up its hands and told the conferences that they were free to determine the future of football, what happened on July 21 was the equivalent of the firing on Fort Sumter.

On that date, news leaked out from a Houston sports reporter that Oklahoma and Texas were going to leave the Big 12 Conference and join the Southeastern Conference.  

Immediately, the remaining Big 12 teams had to declare states of emergency.  The two teams leaving the conference accounted for most of the revenue generation in the league.  A league of eight teams with Oklahoma State and Iowa State as the two top programs would not command the media contract, and the league teams would be choked out in revenue sharing.

SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey then stated that increasing the number of teams in the Playoffs from four to 12 did not need to be put on a fast-track.  Other media officials began to speculate that Sankey might not be finished with realignment at 16.  Rumors surfaced that Florida State, Clemson, Michigan, and Ohio State might be next.  Once thought of as a totally ridiculous type of rumor, it no longer seemed far-fetched to believe it could occur.

Sankey started the Civil Football War, and the teams not included in the exclusive SEC Country Club chose to combine forces.  The ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 commissioners realized that their futures were in serious doubt, and something needed to be done to counter the moves of the SEC.  And, voila, it appears that the three leagues are on the cusp of forming an alliance, where the three leagues will play all of their non-conference games against each other.  The other idea is that they will agree not to play any SEC teams.  The War is on.

The problem with this potential war is this:  if you added Oklahoma to the SEC this year, four of the top six teams would be SEC teams.  Having the other leagues not play any of these teams might mean that the SEC could hold a four-team tournament of its own and have a much better playoff than if the rest of the nation was involved.

We’ll have to wait at least a year until the Sooners and Longhorns make the move, but suffice it to say–the SEC begins the season for the 15th consecutive season as the strongest conference in college football.  Penn State football coach James Franklin summed it up best when he was the head coach at Vanderbilt a decade ago:  “The three strongest conferences in football are the NFC, the AFC, and the SEC.”

After the news broke in Hoover, AL, about the potential realignment, the media eventually voted in their preseason poll.  Mind you, that this league allows local fan sites from the schools to vote in these polls, and you will see some ridiculous outliers in the votes.  I have been a poll voter in the past, but since becoming a voting member of the National Football Foundation, I only vote on NFF issues.

SEC Media Preseason Poll
Eastern Division1st PlOverall
South Carolina1355

Western Division1st PlOverall
Texas A&M1760
Ole Miss1529
Mississippi St.217

Championship Game Winner
Ole Miss1
Texas A&M1
South Carolina1

The PiRate Ratings show little difference from the media poll.

Southeastern Conference
East Division
South Carolina101.1101.0100.4100.8

West Division
Texas A&M117.4118.3118.6118.1
Ole Miss113.3113.3113.2113.3
L S U111.0112.4112.8112.1
Mississippi St.110.2110.4109.7110.1

SEC Averages111.4111.6111.6111.5

Eastern Division


None of Nick Saban’s former assistant coaches have ever beaten him in a football game.  There was a time when the same was true for Bear Bryant, until future Alabama head coach Gene Stallings and his 1967-68 Texas A&M Aggies came from behind to beat Bama in the Cotton Bowl.

Kirby Smart has come the closest to beating Saban, and he almost did it in the National Championship Game.  If there is a year where Georgia might be the better team between the two behemoths, this could be the year.  However, in recent days, Georgia has seen a rash of injuries and a personal issue deplete what might have been the best receiving corps in the nation.  

The Bulldogs have seen the injury bug hit the top two tight ends, Darnell Washington and John FitzPatrick.  Third teamer Brock Bowers is a competent pass-catcher, but his blocking ability is considerably weaker than Washington.

Wide receiver Arik Gilbert was considered the final piece of the puzzle for the Bulldogs to have the best offense in the SEC when he came this Summer via the Transfer Portal, but Gilbert has been away with a personal matter and has not been practicing.    What hurts here is that Gilbert can play at tight end or wideout.  Expected starting wideouts Jermaine Burton and Kearis Jackson have missed practice, and UGA was already prepared to play the 2021 season without top receiver Geoge Pickens.

If most or all of these receivers are able to play in game one, then Georgia has a fighting chance to pull off the first upset of the season, when they face former annual rival Clemson in a game to be played in Charlotte, North Carolina.  The Bulldogs are loaded at every position on both sides of the ball.

Quarterback J.T. Daniels went 4-0 as a Bulldog starter last year.  The former USC quarterback passed for more than 300 yards in two of those starts.  When a team that always has one of the top five running back units in the country can all of a sudden pass for 300 yards, you have a team that resembles LSU in 2019.

How is the Bulldog running brigade this year?  Zamir White can be a brigade by himself.  He was healthy for the entire season last year, and he produced 779 rushing yards at a 5.4 yard per carry clip.  He scored 11 touchdowns.  White has help.  Backup James Cook averaged 6.7 yards per attempt, and three other returnees combined to rush for 662 yards at 5.6 yards per attempt.

The Bulldog offensive line features one of the top blockers in the nation in guard-tackle Jamaree Salyer.

The 2021 UGA offense has the potential to be the best in the nation, not necessarily in points and yards, but in actual talent.  In the toughest league in college football, averaging 35-40 points per game and 425-450 total yards a game is better than 45-50 points and 550 yards in other leagues.

Defensively, Georgia can go head-to-head with Alabama in the front seven, but the defensive backfield may be a tad suspect if you can call maybe the 20th best secondary in the nation suspect.

Up front, nose tackle Jordan Davis should be playing on Sundays in 2022.  He can take on two offensive blockers, shed them, and clobber a running back, and he can rush the passer from the inside.  Jack End/Linebacker Adam Anderson is one of the best outside pass rushers in the league.

Star Linebacker/Safety Tykee Smith is another player with injury issues in Fall Practice.  His injury would hurt Georgia more than any of the injuries on offense.  The West Virginia transfer is considerably better than backup Latavious Brini.

The big intangible that could be the difference in a close game is special teams play.  The Bulldogs have the best punter in the league in Jake Camarda and one of the best kickers in Jack Podlesny.  Additionally, the Bulldog return games are both major weapons.

When we first released the ACC preview, our prediction was that Georgia would edge Clemson in an incredible game that would set the table for the Bulldogs to run the table to the SEC Championship Game, where #1 Alabama would face #2 Georgia.  However, since that preview, all the receiver issues as well as the potential loss of Smith makes the Clemson game look a little less likely for the Bulldogs.  The rest of the regular season should present Georgia with few problems as long as the team doesn’t suffer more injuries.  If the entire squad can be healthy in December, this might be the year the Bulldogs kick in the door and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.


The Gators beat Georgia and were 8-1 after the first week of December last year.  A loss to LSU and then to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game sent the Gators to the Cotton Bowl, where future SEC foe Oklahoma dismantled the Gators’ defense in a 55-20 blowout.  At 8-4, the season was considered a disappointment.  2021 could be trouble for Florida, as Coach Dan Mullen has a rebuilding job to do on both sides of the ball.

The first question with the offense is how Emory Jones will replace Kyle Trask as quarterback.  Trask passed for 43 touchdowns last year and 4,283 yards.  He averaged close to 10 yards per pass attempt.  Jones is more of a dual threat quarterback.  He’d probably be an excellent single wing tailback, but will he be able to throw the ball 30-35 times a game and put up numbers anywhere close to what Trask accomplished last year?  We don’t think he will, but he might run for 750-800 yards.

Florida’s top three running backs from last year are back again, and combined with Jones, the Gators could rush for 175-200 yards per game and shave a few scrimmage plays off the defensive average as well.

Along with the loss of Trask, replacing Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts, and Trevon Grimes will be tough.  The trio accounted for 151 receptions and 31 touchdowns.  Florida’s receivers this year will rely on getting open because Jones uses the run-pass option with effectiveness, forcing defenders to play a cat and mouse game.

Three offensive line starters return, and this year’s line will be about as talented as last year’s.

The Gators averaged 40 points and 510 yards per game last year, but those numbers will not be approached in 2021.  30-35 points and 400-430 yards will still allow the Gators to win enough games to compete for a New Year’s Bowl.

Defensively, Florida broke down too many times last year.  With significant starters to replace, the defense may be no better this year.  The four returning starters, end Zachary Carter, linebackers Brenton Cox and Ventrell Miller, and cornerback Kaiir Elam all have All-SEC talent, but the other seven starters are average to above average only.  The defensive line has the potential to develop into a top flight unit if a couple of transfers play a little beyond expectations.

Florida’s non-conference schedule should allow the Gators to pick up four wins.  They must play both Alabama and Georgia in conference play, and their grudge match at LSU plus road games against Missouri and Kentucky present too many obstacles to compete for the Eastern Division title this year.  A nine-win regular season and New Year’s Day bowl would be a reasonable expectation.


Mark Stoops has a 49-50 career record at Kentucky in eight years.  It sounds mediocre, but he inherited a mess in Lexington, and he’s slowly turned this program into a fairly strong one, where a bowl game is now expected.  How the Wildcats went 23-14 the last three years with the weakest passing attack in the league is a testament to how well Stoops can squeeze points out of yards.  Kentucky’s 121.5 yards per game passing last year was actually less than some of Alabama’s averages in the 1970’s when they ran the Wishbone and passed the ball 10 times a game.

The passing woes may be a thing of the past, as former Penn State quarterback Will Levis has come to town.  Levis has a strong arm, and he can scramble and run the ball.  New offensive coordinator Liam Coen most recently tutored Jared Goff to an NFC Championship and playoff appearance in two years as the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive coordinator.  He believes Levis is the man that can make his multiple offense run effectively.

Running back Chris Rodriguez, Jr., led the Wildcats with 785 rushing yards while scoring 11 touchdowns.  Kavosley Smoke looked impressive in his few carries.

Kentucky may sneak up on some defenses this year with the passing game, not just because of the arm of Levis.  The receiving corps has some hidden gems, and a true freshman son of an NFL Hall of Famer might sneak into the first unit.  Nebraska transfer Wan’Dale Robinson becomes the top target, even though last year’s top receiver Josh Ali returns.   Robinson caught 51 passes in eight games last year for the Cornhuskers.  That true freshman that may sneak onto the first team as the third receiver is Christian Lewis, the son of legendary Baltimore Ravens’ linebacker Ray Lewis.

Kentucky has some questions to answer at the interior line.  Potential All-American Darian Kinnard might have been a second round draft pick had he chosen to enter the draft, and his return is a big plus, but the Cats lost their other tackle, Landon Young, who may have been the most talented offensive lineman Kentucky has had in 20 years.

Defensively, there are a lot of holes to fill, and this is the reason why we cannot call Kentucky a dark horse team to contend in the Eastern Division.  Similar to Florida, the four returning starters are all highly talented.  End Josh Paschal, linebacker DeAndre Square, and safeties Tyrell Ajian and Yusuf Corker will lead what will be an inexperienced defense at the other seven positions.  

Kentucky should win all four non-conference games, and then they are likely to split their conference games at 4-4.  An 8-4 season with a bowl game would continue the success of the Stoops era.


Eliah Drinkwitz went 5-5 in his first season at Missouri after going 12-1 in his one year at Appalachian State.  The second year skipper has Tiger fans excited that Missouri is headed in the right direction.  Drinkwitz proved that he’s a coach capable of adjusting his style of play to the talent he has, as he went with wide-open passing attack in his first year in Columbia after being a run-first coach at Appy State.  Expect more of the same from the Tigers this year, as the Mizzou offense should post even better numbers in 2021 than in 2020.

Quarterback Connor Bazelak didn’t start the first two games last year, as Alabama and then Tennessee won in blowouts.  At 0-2, Bazelak assumed starting duties and guided the Tigers to a 5-3 finish and an average of 28.9 points per game.  Bazelak finished with a 67.3% completion percentage for 2,366 yards, averaging close to 300 passing yards per game in his starts.

Missouri’s pass receiving corps figured to be a team strength until it was robbed of two of its key reserves due to injuries in August practices.  Keke Chism and Jalen Knox figure to be the top two targets after combining for 66 receptions and 763 yards last year, but incoming Ohio State transfer Mookie Cooper figured to be the missing ingredient that took the UM passing game from really good to great.  Cooper is out until mid-season with a leg injury.  

The running game loses its top weapon in Larry Rountree III, after he rushed for 972 yards and 14 touchdowns and became a member of the Los Angeles Chargers.  Tyler Badie might not run for 800 yards this year, but he’s more likely to be successful picking up three yards on 3rd and two and punching the ball into the end zone from the two than Rountree was able to do.  He’s also a capable pass-catcher out of the backfield.

An experienced and talented offensive line will open holes for the running game and provide enough pass protection for Bazelak to work his magic.  Drinkwitz’s Tigers will be flying in 2021.  Expect Mizzou to top 30 points and 425 yards per game.

It’s the defensive side of the ball that will determine whether Missouri will stay around .500 or win a couple more games.  He hired former Arizona Cardinals head coach Steve Wilks as his new defensive coordinator, and Wilks will implement massive changes in the way this team plays defense.  Expect Missouri to play mostly a 4-2-5 defense with a lot more zone coverage after being mostly a man-to-man coverage team last year with three-linebacker sets.  The transformation may be rough at times, but it could lead to more takeaways, something Missouri needed last year, when they were -5 in turnover margin.

Missouri’s defensive strength is up front, where the defensive line returns three starters, featuring 1st team All-SEC end Trajan Jeffcoat, who led the team with six QB sacks last year.  Former starter Kobie Whiteside appears to be healthy once again after missing half of last year with a knee injury.

The now two-man linebacker crew must make do without its leading tackler from 2020, as Nick Bolton earned consecutive All-SEC selections his last two years and appears set to become a starter with the Kansas City Chiefs.  Devin Nicholson does return after finishing second to Bolton with 82 tackles.

The biggest concern with the defense is the secondary, where two starters return to a unit that struggled in coverage last year.  A revamped secondary will have to learn multiple zone coverages, and there could be growing pains.

The Missouri schedule is tougher than average, and the Tigers could sink in September if the defense cannot quickly grasp all the new concepts.  An opening game against Central Michigan should be a win, but the Chippewas are not a team to take lightly.  CMU has enough talent to make this game interesting.  A trip to Kentucky follows a week later, and the Wildcats’ new passing game will test out the Tigers’ new defense.  After a breather against SEMO, a game at Boston College to close out September could be a little more than Missouri bargained for.  A 3-1 non-conference mark after an easy win over North Texas would require three conference wins to gain bowl eligibility.  With a home game against South Carolina and a road game against a weak Vanderbilt team, the Tigers will need to find one more win to get to 6-6.


This once proud, perennial top 10 team has fallen on hard times in the 21st Century.  Five coaches have come and gone between the Volunteers’ last appearance in the SEC Championship Game.  The Vols also botched two coaching hires, one in which they apparently hired Mike Leach and then unhired him, and one where they apparently had agreed to a deal with Greg Schiano before protests forced them to cancel the agreement.

Tennessee turns to its latest hopeful guru in Josh Heupel.  What Paul Westhead was to college basketball at Loyola Marymount, Heupel was to college football at Central Florida, where the Knights typically ran 85 scrimmage plays and topped 40 points per game with a balanced run-pass attack.  The philosophy worked and was quite exciting to watch when Heupel had a star quarterback like McKenzie Milton.  It was still exciting and still scored points when Milton wasn’t there, but it wasn’t as consistent, and the other team discovered that they could score points almost as easily as UCF.  It ended in a 2020 season that brought a 6-4 record with an average game score of 42-33.

Tennessee suffered through a 3-7 season that included six consecutive losses by an average score of 35-16 before topping Vanderbilt in a blowout win and then concluding the former coach Jeremy Pruitt era with a blowout loss to Texas A&M.  Included in the turmoil was an endless quarterback battle that never worked its way to a successful conclusion.

After the season, the Vols lost more talent in the Transfer Portal than any other team, and that does not include three of the four quarterbacks.  It looks like a total makeover is coming to Knoxville, and makeovers like this rarely look pretty at the top level of college football.

There could be a bright spot with the quarterback position this year.  Two former starting quarterbacks with Power 5 conference teams have transferred to Knoxville.  Former Michigan quarterback Joe Milton appears to be the odds-on favorite to open the season as the starter, while former Virginia Tech quarterback Hendon Hooker should be #2.  This should be considered an upgrade over the revolving door on The Hill in 2020, and with the new offense, the Vols should be a bit more successful moving the ball and scoring points.

The ground game will need Milton or Hooker to take up some of the slack lost when Eric Gray transferred to Oklahoma.  Gray WAS the UT offense at times last year.  Jabari Small and Tiyon Evans will split most of the carries by running backs this year.  Both have the potential to be effective, and the Vols’ running game could be a surprise at times this year.

The receiving corps is a total remake this year.  However, with the QB problems in the rear view mirror, expect this unit to put up much better stats, even with all new starters.  With the extreme up-tempo run by Heupel, it requires at least two complete sets of receivers to play, and eventually, defensive backfields that cannot platoon with two separate units suffer fatigue breakdowns.  So, even if the receivers are mostly untested, they will put up some incredible statistics.  Keep an eye on Mississippi State transfer JaVonta Payton.  He should become the new go-to guy, but this unit has multiple players with sprinter’s speed.  If they can catch the ball, Tennessee could shock the league with passing numbers.

The offensive line has been an underperformer for multiple seasons.  It figures to be a work in progress this year, but Milton and Hooker could take a lot of the pressure off the interior blockers that was put there by the former quarterbacks.  Tackle Cade Mays can play guard as well, and he will be the foundation for this unit.

After averaging just 21.5 points and 346 yards per game last year, those numbers could be the halftime numbers of multiple games this year.  The Vols should move north of 30 points and 400 yards per game in 2021.

All is not so optimistic on the defensive side of the ball, and as quickly as the Big Orange score points, they may just as quickly give them up.  The Vols figure to finish #13 in scoring and total defense in the league this year thanks only to there being possibly the worst defense in modern SEC history just down the road.

The biggest issue with this defense is at the linebacker spot, where the roster was decimated by graduation and Transfer Portal defections.  Henry To’o To’o was one of the best linebackers the Vols have had in the last 25 years, and his loss is Alabama’s gain.  Look for Tennessee to rotate fresh linebackers into the rotation, hoping a couple can stand out and become key contributors.

Up front, the Vols look to have a somewhat decent pass rush with Matthew Butler returning at end.  Look out for USC transfer Caleb Tremblay on the inside, and we think that a healthy LaTrell Bumphus could be a key contributor here as well.

The secondary is the most experienced unit on the defense with three returning starters.  Cornerbacks Alontae Taylor and Kenneth George, Jr. combined for 10 passes defended last year, while safeties Trevon Flowers and Jaylen McCullough teamed for 105 tackles.

Heupel’s first Vols’ team has a chance at making a bowl thanks to an advantageous schedule.  If Tennessee can top Pittsburgh in week two in a home game, it should mean UT goes 4-0 in non-conference games.  Needing just two conference wins for bowl eligibility, one is a given against Vanderbilt, while games with Missouri, South Carolina, and Kentucky will give the Vols that chance to pick up the second conference win.

South Carolina

The Will Muschamp era is over in Columbia, and there’s renewed excitement in the hiring of Shane Beamer as the new head coach.  Beamer, a surprise long shot candidate for the job, hit the ground running when he took over, and he looks like he could be one of the best recruiters in the league, and he certainly has won over fans with his public outreach.  That bodes well for the Gamecocks down the road, but 2021 may be a season where the team looks too familiar to fans at Williams-Brice Stadium.

Coming off a 2-8 season that included wins over Vanderbilt and Auburn, it figures that 2021 should see something of a bounceback, especially for an offense that scored just 44 points in the final three games.  Six starters return on offense, and the most important one is running back Kevin Harris.  Harris finished second in the league in rushing with 1,138 yards, scoring 15 touchdowns.  He ran for more than 200 yards in two games and topped 100 yards in three others, averaging 6.2 yards per carry.  He added 21 receptions, which was third best on the team.  A recent back injury in practice may open the door for MarShawn Lloyd to reclaim the starting position he lost last year when he was lost for the season with a knee injury.  When both are healthy, this is the best tandem running back duo in the league.

You win in college football in the 2020’s with a quarterback that can move the ball through the air down the field, and South Carolina is hurting in this department.  Expected starter Luke Doty has missed practice time with a foot injury.  After watching backup Jason Brown struggle to run plays in practice and giving a walk-on a try, Beamer made the decision to take graduate assistant Zeb Noland, who has one year of eligibility remaining, and place him on the active roster.  Noland began his playing career at Iowa State and transferred to North Dakota State, where he graduated after being the backup to the great Trey Lance.

The receiving corps must be rebuilt from the ground up, and tight end Nick Muse may have to be the primary target with all the turmoil surrounding the passing game.  Muse grabbed 30 passes and gained 425 yards last year.  

The good news is that the offensive line is experienced and a lot more talented than it looked to be last year.  Four of five starters return.

The front seven of the defense has experience and talent, but the secondary is inexperienced and not as talented.  USC will need to blitz a lot this year to put pressure on enemy quarterbacks, because if given too much time, they will pick the Gamecock secondary to shreds.

In the trenches, the entire starting four return, including edge rusher Kingsley Enagbare, who led the team with six QB sacks and seven TFL in eight games.    

Linebacker Damani Staley is the leading returning tackler (50), and former starter Sherrod Greene returns at LB after missing almost all of last year.  When healthy in 2019, Greene made 6 ½ tackles for loss, so he is a disrupter.

South Carolina will likely be forced to use nickel coverage on most plays this year.  There isn’t a lot of SEC-caliber talent in this unit, and going up against the offenses on this schedule, the Gamecocks are going to be outgunned more often than not.

The USC schedule includes the non-conference season finale against rival Clemson, so the Gamecocks start the season with a guaranteed non-conference loss.  They will need to win the other three against weak competition.  Once conference play starts, only the Vanderbilt game looks like a near sure thing.  Four wins may be all that can be expected out of this team, but that would double last year’s total.


The one private, academically prestigious school in the SEC is always behind the eight-ball when it comes to acquiring enough talent to compete against the best public institutions of higher football standards than any other in the nation.  2020 was a season that Vanderbilt fans would like to forget.  Thanks only to Kansas being a total trainwreck, or this would have been the worst power 5 team of the 21st Century.

In all the years of struggling to survive in the SEC, until last year, Vandy had never suffered through a winless season.  But, the 0-9 finish, where the Commodores opted out of the Georgia game twice ended with Earth-shattering news that many believed embarrassed the school more than it advanced gender equality.  Covid decimated the Commodore lineup to the point where former coach Derek Mason was forced to take the backup goalie on the women’s soccer team and make her the starting kicker on the team.  Sarah Fuller was a perfect two for two on extra points to make history, but 2020 was a year Vanderbilt would like to erase from the history books.

Enter Vanderbilt football alum Clark Lea to take the reins of the Commodore football program.  Lea was one of the best defensive coordinators in college football in recent years at Notre Dame.  Former coach Mason came to Vanderbilt with the same credentials.

Lea has the endorsement of the Wizard of Vanderbilt athletics.  Baseball coach Tim Corbin wanted him for this job, and Lea hopes that a Corbin-like approach to the job can turn the Commodores’ football fortunes around.  A several million dollar investment in new facilities should help recruiting down the road, but for now the Commodores must make do with the weakest offense and weakest defense in the SEC.

Oddly, Vanderbilt is in good shape at quarterback, where they have two talented players that bring different skill sets to the game.  Starting quarterback Ken Seals looked like a seasoned veteran as a true freshman last year.  With minimal pass protection, he completed almost 65% of his passes and 12 touchdowns.  His 10 interceptions can be explained somewhat with very poor pass protection, but a couple were blatant freshman mistakes, including a crucial red zone pick against Texas A&M in the opener that might have made a 17-12 loss a 19-17 win and set a totally different tone for the season.  Backup Mike Wright has quicker feet and a stronger arm, but he is not as accurate as Seals.  Still, expect to see Wright get a good number of series as a change of pace.

Considering this team ranked 11th in the league in passing yardage, the Commodores have a couple of talented receivers returning in Cam Johnson and Chris Pierce.  The two combined for 81 catches last year.  Amir Abdur-Rahim is the secret sauce of this unit.  He is the one truly deep threat receiver, and we expect new offensive coordinator David Raih will gamble with a few more deep throws this year than Vandy has attempted in recent years.

The running game has been a strength in recent years as two Commodore players made it to the NFL.  However, this will be a question mark this year after expected feature back Keyon Henry-Brooks transferred to Louisiana Tech.  Incoming Temple transfer Re’Mahn Davis will begin the year as the starter.  Davis averaged 4.2 yards per rush in two seasons at Temple, but against the only defense anywhere close to SEC caliber, he only gained 36 yards on 15 carries.  Walk-on Mitchell Pryor may be the most reliable inside threat on the team.  What he lacks in pure ability, he makes up for in effort.  In limited duty in two years, he has averaged five yards per rush, all on straight ahead power dive plays and scored a pair of touchdowns.

The offensive line returns three starters, and three more former starters return after opting out last year.  Still, this is the weakest offensive line in the SEC, and the #13 line is closer to #1 than Vanderbilt is to it.

Now, for the extreme gloom.  The Commodore defense is not up to SEC standards.  It may not be up to the standards of a good FCS team.  It might ranke dead last this year if the offense cannot sustain drives that keeps the defense off the field.  The 2020 defense was more talented than this one will be, and they finished ranked 121 of 127 in yards allowed at 487.4 per game.

Last year’s defense had very few positives, and all the positives have vacated the premises.  End Dayo Odeyingbo, now playing in the NFL, and Andre Mintze, now trying to hook on with the Broncos as a UFA, accounted for more than 65% of the QB sacks and 41% of the TFL.  Top defensive back Donovan Kaufman followed Mason to Auburn.

What’s left is the overwhelming last place defensive line, linebackers, and secondary.  In all the years of covering college football, we cannot remember any team having the last place unit on an entire defense.  Vanderbilt gave up 37.3 points per game in 2020.  That included giving up 41 points to a weak South Carolina team and 42 to a weak Tennessee team.  As bad as that was, the 2021 defense could give up more than 45 points and 500 yards per game.

There are two winnable non-conference games on this year’s schedule, which is the reason why this team won’t go winless for a second season in a row.  Vanderbilt should beat East Tennessee State in the season opener, and Connecticut coming to Nashville in early October should be another win.  However, the other 10 teams on the schedule look to be out of reach.  A non-conference game at Colorado State is the other potential win, but the last time Vandy played a Mountain West team, the weakest one in the league, UNLV, blew them off the field in Nashville.

Western Division


Nick Saban may have put his best ever team on the field last year.  The Crimson Tide beat 11 consecutive conference opponents, including Georgia, Florida, and Texas A&M, on their way to a perfect 13-0 record and national championship, where they toyed with both of their playoff opponents.

The talent lost from that team could form the basis of an NFL expansion franchise.  So much talent has been lost, that in our ratings, the Crimson Tide begin the season more than 11 points weaker than they ended the season.  So where does this drop Alabama in the national rankings to start the year?  It doesn’t.  They are still number one and still expected to win another national championship.

At this point in his wizardry in Tuscaloosa, Saban has become the John Wooden of college football.  When Wooden lost Kareem Abdul-Jabbar after the 1969 season, his next two years before Bill Walton debuted with the varsity, he relied on Sydney Wicks, Curtis Rowe, and Steve Patterson and won the next two national championships without the dominant big man.  Saban loses Mac Jones, who could very well become the New England Patriots’ starting quarterback sometime this season.  He loses Najee Harris, who was more dominant at ‘Bama than Derrick Henry.  Harris scored 26 rushing touchdowns and four more on passes for 180 points and 1,891 total yards.  Saban also loses Devonta Smith at wide receiver.  All he did was catch 117 passes for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns.  At the end of the year, he picked up the big piece of hardware naming him the best player in college football.  Ha, he may not have even been the best player on his team!

The roster is still chock full of 4-star and 5-star athletes waiting for their turns to become all-stars.  Foremost among them may be one of the leading candidates to pick up that big piece of hardware in New York City this December.

Bryce Young was the most heralded quarterback recruit to sign at Alabama in decades, but he has had to wait his turn in line.  In very limited action last year, he completed 13 of 22 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown.  Passing is just half of his game.  Young possesses an ability to make defenders miss when he runs the ball.  Think of him as a better version of Russell Wilson in college.  New offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will make Young a better passer, but O’Brien’s history is one of a pro-style offense.  He might be forced to add more designed runs for Young.

The next star running back for the Crimson Tide should actually be a three-headed monster.  The trio of Brian Robinson, Jr., Jase McClellan, and Trey Sanders will team up to approach Harris’s 2020 numbers.  If Sanders stays healthy, he may eventually become the feature back capable of topping 1,000 yards.

John Metchie, III, and Slade Bolden are all that’s left of last year’s tops in the nation receiving corps, but Saban has hoarded 5-star talent in this unit and has two true freshmen (Ja’Corey Brooks and Christian Leary) that could quickly see the field this year.  Alabama can go three-deep in this position and still get the job done.

Normally, losing three star offensive linemen would be a big issue, but not here at the offensive line factory of Tuscaloosa.  The new OL may still be the best in the nation, but it may not be the best at Bryant-Denny Stadium.  Saban signed what may be the best offensive line recruiting group in the history of college football.  This group may be the college equivalent of the 1962 Green Bay Packers’ offensive line, the best in football history!  And, it is likely that the entire group will be redshirted, so watch out future SEC teams; pancakes may be served up at all future Tide games!

If an offense that lost eight starters still figures to be one of the best in the nation, what can you say about a defense that returns eight starters?  All three units on this team rank in the PiRate Ratings preseason adjustment process as top five units, and arguably, if the defensive line lives up to its potential, this Tide team could be number one in the SEC in all three categories.  Perhaps the last time this could be said was back in the 1930’s, when General Robert Neyland’s Tennessee team shut out every regular season opponent!  No, Alabama isn’t going to record 13 shutouts, not in these days, but holding opponents to less than 17 points and 350 yards per game in 2021 when the schedule is chock full of teams with future NFL talent is just as complimentary.

The defensive line has underperformed somewhat in recent years, but with all the star talent Alabama has had at linebacker, finding big beefy guys that could protect the linebackers was more important than finding the next Eric Curry and John Copeland.

All-American candidate Chris Allen  made 6 QB sacks and 13 tackles for loss, and yet he may be overshadowed by the other linebackers.  Will Anderson, Jr., is an All-American candidate after recording seven sacks and 10 ½ TFL.   Christian Harris led the Tide with 79 tackles with seven TFL and 4 ½ sacks.  As if that isn’t enough, the Tide picked up our top-rated Transfer Portal player in former Tennessee linebacker Henry To’o To’o.  To’o To’o has quickly picked up the new defense and will be the defensive quarterback from his middle linebacker position.  This quartet should conjure up memories of the 1970’s Pittsburgh Steelers linebacking unit of Jack Ham, Jack Lambert, and Andy Russell.

As good as the linebacking unit is, the secondary is better.  There could be two 1st team All-Americans patrolling the defensive backfield.  We keep comparing the Tide units with famous pro football units of the past.  Safeties Jordan Battle and Malachi Moore, combined with cornerbacks Josh Jobe and Marcus Banks (and don’t forget 5th DB Daniel Wright) are the college equivalent of the 1960’s Detroit Lions quartet of Nighttrain Lane, Dick LeBeau, Yale Lary, and Gary Lowe.  Unlike that great quartet, Alabama’s offense won’t put the great secondary’s accomplishments to waste.

Alabama’s schedule features an opening week game against Miami in Atlanta, a road game against Florida  two weeks later, a home game against Ole Miss two weeks after that, a road trip to Texas A&M a week later, and November games against rivals LSU and Auburn.  Still, we can predict nothing else but a 12-0 regular season.  A potential #1 vs. #2 Game of the Century against Georgia could be the perfect way to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the last Game of the Century played on Thanksgiving Day between Nebraska and Oklahoma.  If Georgia can upset Clemson, it could happen.  

Texas A&M

What a difference a couple months made in College Station, Texas, last year!  Texas A&M began the 2020 football season getting outplayed by a Vanderbilt team that would go 0-9.  Only a couple of crucial Commodore mistakes allowed the Aggies to escape with a 17-12 win.

The following week, Alabama easily topped A&M by four touchdowns, and there was a tiny undercurrent in Aggieland that Coach Jimbo Fishers’ seat was starting to get a bit warm.  A hard-fought upset win over Florida took the heat off and woke up the team.  Texas A&M proceeded to beat everybody else on the schedule and then trounced North Carolina in the Orange Bowl to finish 9-1 and fourth in the final polls.

If only the Aggies had an experienced quarterback returning, this might have been “The Year!”  A&M has exceptional talent everywhere else, and the big game against Alabama will be played at Kyle Field in October.  Alas, we cannot pull the trigger and call for an Aggie upset.  Another one-loss season is possible.

Replacing Kellen Mond at quarterback may force the Aggies to use two untested quarterbacks this year.  Last year’s number two man Hayned King is still a freshman.  He is the better runner, but lesser passer of the two contenders.  2019 backup Zach Calzada has the better passing arm but isn’t as mobile as King.  Calzada is more of a drop-back vertical passer.

While the Aggies suffered heavy losses to the offensive line, it does welcome Tennessee transfer Jahmir Johnson to bookend the outside spots with lone returning starter Kenyon Green.  There will be a slight drop in blocking ability, and it could be a main reason why King might have the advantage to start at QB, as his mobility can make up for the blocking liability.

One area where the Aggies will have more talent this year than last is the receiving unit.  Everybody that mattered last year returns this year, led by Ainias Smith and Chase Lane at wideouts and Jalen Wydermyer at tight end.  There three stars teamed for 118 receptions good for 1,479 yards and 14 touchdowns.  There is ample depth here.

The running game is in capable hands with the return of 1,000-yard rusher Isaiah Spiller and top backup Devon Achane.  Spiller is also a pass-catching threat to take a quick pass behind the line of scrimmage and make something happen.

The Aggie defense improved as the season progressed last year, and at the end of the year, it led the league in yards allowed and finished third in points allowed.  Nine starters return from this side of the ball, including multiple seniors who chose to return for a free year.

The best unit on the defense is the interior line.  End DeMarvin Leal and tackle Jayden Peavy have All-SEC potential.  

While linebacker is the question of the defense, it does return Aaron Hansford.  Losing Buddy Johnson will be a tough spot to replace, but Andre White, Jr., played well as a backup last year.

The secondary returns all five starters from last year, and this group proved to be quite good by November.  There is exceptional depth as well.  

The out-of-conference schedule is a cinch for A&M to pick up four wins.  Early conference games against Arkansas in a game to be played at Cowboys Stadium, and Mississippi State in a home game should allow the Aggies to be 5-0 when Alabama comes to Kyle Field on October 9.  It would take a minor miracle for the Aggies to win that game, but that game may be the one obstacle preventing A&M from running the table in the regular season.  Fisher is one of three SEC head coaches to own a national championship.  There are only five total (Dabo Swinney and Mack Brown).

The next three spots in the Western Division pecking order are up for grabs.  It is hard to differentiate between the three, so we will present them in order of their preseason PiRate Rating.


Auburn fans grew tired of former coach Gus Malzahn.  His on-the-field coaching remained exceptional, but recruiting was beginning to fall behind the other leaders of the SEC.  After a 6-5 season last year, the administration felt that $21,500,000 was an acceptable price to part ways with Malzahn and hire a hot name.

Bryan Harsin may not have been the hot name Auburn fans wanted, but that’s who they got.  Harsin probably underachieved a little at Boise State, as the Broncos were expected to win the Mountain West Conference every year.  Every one of his teams from 2014 to 2020 were ranked in the top 25 at some point in the season, and every one lost games they should not have lost.  If he couldn’t win the conference championship with the best overall talent in the league, how will he make Auburn a big winner in the SEC, when they do not have the best talent in the Western Division?  It will be interesting to see what happens.  Harsin did pull off a coup in hiring Mike Bobo as his offensive coordinator and Derek Mason as his defensive coordinator, two guys with SEC head coaching experience.

Auburn returns 16 starters, and they add a key transfer that could make things interesting at quarterback.  Bo Nix is the returning starting QB, but he hasn’t totally solidified his spot for 2021.  Former LSU quarterback T.J. Finley started multiple games down the stretch for the Tigers, and if Nix continues to throw to the wrong receiver by not properly reading the coverage, Finley could eventually supplant him under center.  Bobo uses a pro-style offense where reading coverages and throwing to the right receiver is a much more involved process.  We have heard through the grapevine thay Nix disappointed with numerous interceptions in a recent closed scrimmage.  This is something to monitor as the season is less than two weeks from starting, but we believe Nix will be the starter for the opener with Akron.

The receiving corps took a major hit with the departures of Seth Williams and speedster Anthony Schwartz.  The duo made 101 catches with 1,396 yards and seven touchdowns last year.  The Tigers have some decent talent taking over, but they are inexperienced.  Ze’Vian Capers suffered through injuries that limited his availability until August, but he’s begun to look like a number one option in recent days.  Elijah Canion has deep play potential, and Harsin’s Bronco teams had a propensity to throw deeper routes than Malzahn’s offense used.

The running game returns its top two backs in Tank Bigsby and Shaun Shivers.  Bigsby was the top running back recruit in the nation two years ago, and he lived up to his credentials by taking the SEC Freshman of the Year Award after running for 834 yards and five touchdowns.  He topped 100 yards in four games, including three games in a row in October.

All five starting offensive linemen return from last year, but the Tigers had issues protecting Nix.  Of course, Nix held onto the ball a bit too long with trouble reading defensive coverage, which led to his throwing under pressure too many times.

Expect the defense to show marked improvement under Mason’s tutelage.  His defenses looked terrible against some SEC teams while he was at Vanderbilt, but he developed a lot of 3-star players into NFL talents.  Mason has more talent to work with in his first year at Auburn than he had in his entire tenure at Vandy.

Up front in the 2-gap 3-4 defense, end Colby Wooden has all-star potential.  Nine of his 41 tackles last year were behind the line of scrimmage.

The linebacker unit is going to be as productive as any Auburn linebacker unit in recent history.  Zakoby McClain led the SEC with 113 tackles (more than 10 per game).  Expect to see him top the three sacks he made last year.  Owen Pappoe added 93 tackles with four sacks and an interception.

A strong defensive backfield got stronger when Donovan Kaufman followed Mason from Vandy to the Plains.  He will plug the vacant safety spot and team with potential All-American Smoke Monday to give Auburn one of the top five defensive backfields in the nation.

Auburn has one of the three stud placekickers in this league in Anders Carlson.  Carlson connected on 20 of 22 field goal attempts last year.

The Tigers may have the toughest non-conference road game in the SEC this year, as they face Penn State in Happy Valley in week three.  They will definitely be 2-0 when they go to Beaver Stadium, and this will be a big test.  If they can beat a Big Ten contender on the road, Auburn will gain important confidence that could propel the Tigers into a 7-1 record when they play Texas A&M in a battle that could decide second place in the West.  Alas, we believe asking this team to beat Penn State is a bit too much, and the Tigers will more likely go 4-4 or 3-5 in the league.  The Tigers’ offense may sputter a bit this year, and the defense will not be able to bail them out every week.

Ole Miss

Now for the team that may be the most exciting to watch in the SEC and one of the most exciting in college football.  The Ole Miss Rebels are coming off a 5-5 season that included an Outback Bowl win over Indiana to make it to .500.  Ole Miss finished first in the league and third in the nation in total offense, while they finished last in the league and second to last overall in total defense.  Their average game score was 39-38.

Second year head coach Lane Kiffin may not have the best quarterback in the nation, but by the end of the year, the rest of college football might be looking up at him in passing yardage.  Matt Corral averaged 334 passing yards per game and three touchdowns per game last year and ran for another 506 yards and six scores in his first season running Jeff Lebby’s wide open spread offense. Lebby can claim lineage in the Bob Stoops, Art Briles, and Josh Heupel coaching trees.  If he were a racehorse in the Kentucky Derby, it would be like he carried the lineage of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed in his bloodline.  

The best option any quarterback can have is a receiver that can get open deep and catch the long bomb.  Any team would love to have a Cliff Branch type of deep threat, and Ole Miss has that in Braylon Sanders.  Expect a stellar year from Sanders where he more than doubles his 15 catches from last year.  He averaged more than 25 yards per reception and scored touchdowns on 27% of his receptions.  While Ole Miss will miss Elijah Moore and his eye-popping 86 catches, 1,193 yards, and eight scores, the Rebels will make up for a lot of that lost yardage by spreading the wealth around to three or four others.

As strong as the Rebels were through the air, their running game was potent.  Corral proved to be an excellent threat on the ground, and Jerrion Ealy forced defenses to stay honest with men in the box.  Ealy led the Rebels with 745 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.  Ole Miss can go three deep with talented runners.

The Ole Miss offensive line is not overly strong, but they are more than adequate in this offense.  Tackles Nick Broeker and Jeremy Jones get the job done.

This has the makings of an offense that will top 225 yards rushing and 375 yards passing.  600 total yards per game is reachable.  Kent State did it last year, and a Baylor team that Lebby was part of in 2015 averaged 617 yards per game.  The all-time record belongs to Houston in 1989 at 625 total yards per game.  If Kiffin decides to run up the score against the four really weak defenses his team will face, that number is within reach.

Ole Miss may need to gain 600 yards a game to compete for the number two or three spot in the SEC West.  Their defense will be improved in 2021, but then it is impossible to be worse than last year.  How bad was this side of the ball in 2020?  Remove the game against a Vanderbilt team that was as weak as a mediocre FCS team last year, and in the other eight SEC games, the Rebels gifted their opponents 42.8 points and 550 yards per game!

Thanks to an even weaker Vanderbilt defense this year, Ole Miss will have no units that rank dead last in the conference.  The defensive line is still weak enough that in a normal season, it would be the worst in the league.  There isn’t enough muscle up front, and this year, there won’t be as much experience as last year (which may not be such a bad thing).

The middle of the defense will be its strength and the only unit that ranks up there with other SEC defenses.  Four talented linebackers (counting buck defender Sam Williams, who is more linebacker than end) with starting experience return, including the leading tackler in Jaquez Jones and leading quarterback sacker Williams.

A full season from Star defensive hybrid safety/linebacker Otis Reese will improve the secondary coverage in 2021.  Once he was declared eligible, he averaged eight tackles per game.

If Ole Miss can reduce their gifts to opposing offenses to less than 35 points per game this year, nine wins are not out of the realm of possibility.  Their non-conference schedule should give them a 4-0 record, and one of those wins would come against former Rebel coach Hugh Freeze, who will most likely bring a 9-0 Liberty team to Oxford in November.  


Every year, there are a few teams that the PiRate Ratings predict to greatly outdo what other predictors predict.  Some of the time, our ratings are correct, and they are wrong.  Sometimes, we have egg on our face.

Likewise, there are teams that other services predict to have great years, when the PiRate Ratings show the same teams to be ranked lower than the other services.  Again, sometimes, we are correct, and sometimes, we have more egg on our face, maybe pie in the face.

LSU falls into the category of teams the PiRate Ratings expect to be weaker than what the consensus is for this team.  Others are picking the Bayou Bengals to contend with Texas A&M for second place and possibly to sneak up on Alabama in November.  We see a 4-4 SEC team; at least, we see a 4-4-level team to start the 2021 season.

Coach Ed Orgeron brought in new offensive and defensive coordinators, loses his expected starting quarterback before the season begins, and lost his best receiver over the Summer into the Transfer Portal.  The Tigers’ offense is less than average compared to the powerful scoring machines in the league.

Max Johnson went 2-3 in his five game audition with the team in 2020.  He limited mistakes, throwing just one interception in 150 attempts, but overall, he’s no better than 10th or 11th best starting QB in this league.  Backup Garrett Nussmeier may eventually be a much better option for the Tigers, but he won’t see a lot of action unless Johnson proves he cannot move the offense.

LSU has a stable full of horses at running back, but new offensive coordinator Jake Peetz wants to go with an aerial circus like the 2019 national champions used with Joe Burrow.  The four backs may see their total opportunities decrease this year.  John Emery, Jr., proved to be a quality pass receiver out of the backfield last year, so he will most likely see his playing time increase this year.

The receiving corps loses its best guy in Terrace Marshall, who led the Tigers with 48 receptions and 10 touchdowns before opting out in late November.  Returning deep threats Kayshon Boutte and Jaray Jenkins combined for 16.6 yards per catch.

The offensive line is the true strength of the offense.  The starting five all come back after four took advantage of a free second senior season.

The Tigers had issues on defense last year, giving up 35 points and 492 yards per game.  That number includes a game against 0-9 Vanderbilt that LSU will not play this year.  Remove the outlier stats from that 41-7 game, and LSU gave up 517 yards per game.  Orgeron replaced defensive coordinator Bo Pelini for former Minnesota Vikings’ defensive backs coach Daronte Jones.  The defensive backfield figures to be the strong point of the defense, with four of five starters returning, including cornerbacks Derel Stingley, Jr., and Eli Ricks, who make up one of the top outside tandems in the nation and second best in the SEC.

There is a ton of returning starting experience up front, but the LSU interior line was exploited too many times last year.  Jones promises to get more physical play out of a roster than can go two-deep across the line with talent.  End Ali Gaye recorded 9 ½ tackles for loss.

The middle of the defense is still a work in progress,  as there are no SEC star-quality linebackers.  Walk-on Jared Small is likely to win a spot in the lineup.

We are confident that Jones will make LSU a more physical, punishing defensive team this year, but how much will the actual numbers improve?  The offense may have some growing pains adjusting to the new offense, especially if there are issues with the quarterbacks.  The schedule does not present any gifts to this team.  LSU must open on the road at the Rose Bowl against a UCLA team that will be playing their second game of the year.  That game is a perfect trap game, and the PiRate Ratings show the Bruins to be the favorite.  This has the making of a 4-4 team in league play with a second consecutive five-loss season and a minor bowl invitation.

Mississippi State

The PiRates could write a book on Coach Mike Leach, “The Pirate,” that might be as long or longer than Leach’s Swing Your Sword.  Leach is the most interesting head coach in American sports, and he’s always good for making headlines with out of the box statements.

He would have stolen the show at SEC Media Days this year with the statements he made, but he had the misfortune of speaking on the day the “Big Reveal” rumor came out from Houston concerning Oklahoma and Texas.

Leach’s number one soundbite involved his plan for making the FBS Playoffs a 64-team event.

What about the 2021 season in Starkville?  2020 started off with a bang when the Bulldogs outscored 2019 National Champion LSU 44-34.  That was the high point of the season until mid-December.  State lost to Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Alabama, scoring just 30 points in those four games.  After a poorly played game that allowed Vanderbilt to keep the score close and ended with a small 24-17 victory, three more losses followed to Georgia, Ole Miss, and Auburn.  The Bulldogs scored just 58 points in those three losses, but the games were close.  Then, to close out the season, MSU slaughtered Missouri 51-32 and then as a 3-7 team in a bowl game, they topped Tulsa 28-26 in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Will 2021 be more consistent in year two of the Pirate in Starkville?  We believe that the Air Raid offense will be a bit more consistent this year, and the defense will be as good or a little better than last year, and the Bulldogs should find themselves back in a bowl game, this time with a winning record.

The Air Raid offense needs a quarterback that can quickly read a defense and throw accurately with a quick release to the right receiver.  It needs receivers that can understand when to alter their route assignments based on what the defense does.  It also requires tractors disguised as offensive linemen that can take maximum line splits and force edge rushers wider than normal to make them one step farther away from the quarterback.  Every requirement cannot be totally found in this year’s offense, but State will be closer to having all the parts this year than they did last year.

Will Rogers was 3-3 as the Bulldog starting quarterback, and he put up monster numbers once he took over as the number one QB.  Rogers completed 45 passes against Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.  Only Tim Couch, a former Leach student, completed more passes in an SEC game.  Rogers only averaged 5.7 yards per pass attempt, but in the Leach offense, passing the ball 60 times means that 20 of those passes are really glorified quick-pitch plays with the ball tossed forward instead of backward.  Those plays should almost count as running plays.

Rogers’ top receiver was running back Jo’Quavious Marks, who caught 60 passes for just 268 yards, but as mentioned in the previous paragraph, a lot of the receptions were safety valve passes behind the line of scrimmage.  The actual top three returning wideouts, Jaden Walley, Austin Williams, and Malik Heath teamed up for 132 receptions and 1,397 yards.

Marks ran for just a little more than he gained in receptions, totaling just 312 rushing yards.  Backup Dillon Johnson averaged 4.4 yards per carry on limited touches, but he added 36 receptions, also for 4.4 yards per catch.

The offensive line is still the one liability hindering the Air Raid from taking off.  The offensive line returns several players that saw action last year.  While the blocking improved during the season, the offensive line has a long way to go until it is ready to replicate what Leach’s offensive lines at Washington State and Texas Tech did.  It will be much more experienced this year.

Leach’s best Cougar team in Pullman was the 2018 team that went 11-2 and finished in the top 10 in the final polls.  While he had Gardner Minshew running the offense, the real secret to why that team set the WSU record for wins was a defense that bent but did not break.  The 2021 MSU defense figures to be a little better than the 2020 edition, and the 2020 edition was better than expected, finishing fifth in the league in yards allowed and sixth in points allowed.  Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett comes from the Rocky Long coaching tree.  He’s a proponent of Long’s 3-3-5 defense.  He has a decent starting lineup set to begin the season, but the reserves will mostly be untested unknowns.

The strength of this year’s defense is the secondary.  Cornerbacks Martin Emerson and Emmanuel Forbes teamed for 117 tackles, and an impressive 17 passes defended.  Forbes led the SEC with five interceptions, returning three to the house.  

The best defender on the team can be found at outside linebacker.  Aaron Brule.  He can play the run, rush the passer, and drop into pass coverage equally well.  Tyrus Wheat isn’t far behind in talent and potential production.  

The defensive line is the weakest part of the defense, and if any of the starters miss time, the backups are not ready to control the lines in an SEC game.

Mississippi State should win all four of their non-conference games, but there are three teams that have the talent to challenge the Maroons.  In conference play, the Bulldogs get a home game with Kentucky and a road game with Vanderbilt from the Eastern Division.  That is their path to six wins and bowl eligibility, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they pick up an upset win along the way.


A 3-7 record at Arkansas never looks satisfactory to fans, but the three wins came against Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Tennessee.  The last time Arkansas beat more than three SEC teams in one year was 2015.  The Razorbacks had lost 20 consecutive SEC games before topping Mississippi State in October of last year.  

In Sam Pittman’s first year at Arkansas, the Razorbacks lost three games by a field goal or less.  The Razorbacks return the most starters in the league, and last year’s starters were considerably improved from 2019.

The offense must replace the quarterback, but this might work in Arkansas’s favor in a unique way.  Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles would prefer to use the Veer and Shoot offense that made his dad famous at Baylor.  Last year’s QB, Feleipe Franks was a drop back passer and not equipped to be a dual threat in the offense.  Arkansas has a clear-cut #1 QB this year, but they also have a highly-talented #2.  K.J. Jefferson is a remarkable dual threat, and he should be a better fit in what Briles wants to run.  Backup Malik Hornsby is elusive and quick, and he can throw darts.  He isn’t as developed at reading defenses as Jefferson, but he can make the offense work if called upon to do so.

Jefferson and Hornsby have a prize receiver in Treylon Burks.   He led the Hogs with 51 catches, good for 820 yards.  He has first round draft pick written all over him, as he combines size, speed, and exceptional hands.  Tight end Blake Kern gives Jefferson another big body to locate in the middle.

Arkansas has quantity and quality in its backfield.  Trelon Smith led the team with 710 rushing yards with five touchdowns, which included an 83-yard touchdown run against Florida.  T.J. Hammonds will be playing his sixth season in a Razorback uniform.  He carries a career 6.9 yard rushing average.

The entire starting offensive line returns with three seniors coming back for an extra season.  The players have put on some muscle since last year, and this should start to resemble a legitimate SEC interior line.

The defense was still well behind SEC standards last year, as Arkansas gave up 35 points and 450+ yards per game playing one of the toughest schedules in the nation.  Nine starters return to run defensive coordinator Barry Odom’s unique defense.  Arkansas uses a Dime Defense as its base package, and the 3-2-6 alignment relies on defensive backs that can cover the run like linebackers.  

It all starts up front, where the three-man line aligns wide to get the best potential routes to the quarterback.  Arkansas added size and depth, including three players from the Transfer Portal.

The two-man linebacker tandem finished one-two in tackles last year.  Grant Morgan led with 111 tackles, 7 ½ for loss, along with five passes defended.  Bumper Pool recorded 101 tackles with 6 ½ for loss and five passes defended.

The secondary requires players that can quickly recognize the run and contain the play.  Frequently one or more of the players will blitz.  The good news here is that five of last year’s six starters are back and will be more comfortable running this system.  Middle safety Jalen Catalon was a beast last year with 99 tackles, three interceptions, four passes defended, and two forced fumbles.  Montaric Brown was the co-leader in passes defended with five.  The rest of the secondary has quick defenders.

The Razorbacks will soon be playing their old former Southwest Conference rival Texas as an SEC game, but they get to renew the rivalry this year with a home game against the Longhorns on September 11.  Texas will be the favorite, but Arkansas should compete in this game.  They will win their other three non-conference games and then they have a chance to win three more in the conference to become bowl eligible.

The PiRate Ratings are not designed to predict seasonal won-loss ratings.  Their nature makes them good for just the next game on the schedule.  However, we like to have fun predicting won-loss records.

Southeastern Conference
East DivisionConf.Overall
South Carolina1-74-8

West DivisionConf.Overall
Texas A&M7-111-1
Ole Miss5-39-3
Mississippi St.3-56-5
* Alabama picked to win SEC Championship Game

August 15, 2019

2019 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

There was a time when the Pac-12 Conference, or one of its predecessor leagues like the Pac-10, Pac-8, Athletic Association of Western Universities, or Pacific Coast Conference was the premier football conference in America.  Southern California, UCLA, Stanford, California, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State have all been elite programs at some point in history.

In recent years, the league has failed to produce a dominant team like the 1954 UCLA Bruins, the 1972 USC Trojans or the 1991 Washington Huskies.  Oregon and Washington have fielded really good teams in this decade, but no Pac-12 team has finished number one since USC won in 2004 with Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Matt Leinart starred at the LA Coliseum.

While the Pac-12 champion has been a touchdown to 10 points weaker than the SEC Champion in the last decade, the bottom teams in the league have been better than other conferences’ bottom teams.  Since moving from eight to nine conference games in 2006, in 10 of the 12 years, at least one team and in many cases two teams have come up one win short of bowl eligibility.  Only Oregon in 2010 has been able to go 9-0 in the league and win the Pac-12 Championship Game as well.

Will this be the year that one team emerges from the pack to earn the league’s first playoff spot since Washington in 2016?  The odds say it won’t happen this year.  The league is too balanced, and there are no dominant teams.  It also doesn’t help that the two leading contenders for the conference championship must face off in an interdivisional game, and chances are high the two teams could split those games.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media voted in the preseason poll.


Pac-12 Media Poll


North Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Oregon 17 190
2 Washington 17 189
3 Stanford 0 129
4 Washington St. 1 108
5 California 0 81
6 Oregon St. 0 38


South Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Utah 33 206
2 USC 2 167
3T Arizona St. 0 118
3T UCLA 0 118
5 Arizona 0 85
6 Colorado 0 46


Championship Game Winner Overall Votes
Utah 12
Oregon 11
Washington 9
Washington St. 1


Preseason PiRate Ratings–Pac-12


North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 113.6 113.5 114.9 114.0
Washington 112.5 111.9 113.6 112.7
Washington St. 111.8 110.7 112.0 111.5
Stanford 108.5 107.5 108.6 108.2
California 106.8 107.0 108.1 107.3
Oregon St. 95.1 96.2 93.9 95.1


South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Utah 116.4 114.7 116.6 115.9
Arizona St. 107.7 106.6 108.3 107.6
U C L A 107.6 106.9 106.8 107.1
U S C 104.0 105.2 104.4 104.6
Arizona 101.7 102.0 102.2 102.0
Colorado 99.8 99.0 99.9 99.5


Pac-12 Averages 107.1 106.8 107.4 107.1


Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.


Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.



PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss

North Division

Pos Team Conference Overall
1 Washington 8-1 11-2
2 Oregon 7-2 9-3
3 Stanford 6-3 7-5
4 Washington St. 5-4 8-4
5 California 3-6 5-7
6 Oregon St. 0-9 1-11


South Division

Pos Team Conference Overall
1 Utah 7-2 11-2*
2 UCLA 5-4 6-6
3 Arizona St. 4-5 6-6
4 USC 4-5 5-7
5 Arizona 3-6 5-7
6 Colorado 1-8 3-9

Utah picked to win Pac-12 Championship Game


As you can see, if our predictions are correct, three Pac-12 teams will miss bowl eligibility by one game, most likely because rather than playing an easy Group of 5 or FCS opponent, they will be playing a ninth conference game.


Bowl Predictions Team
Playoffs Not This Year
Rose Utah
Cotton Washington
Alamo Oregon
Holiday Washington St.
Redbox Stanford
Sun Arizona St.
Vegas UCLA
Cheez-it (At-large team needed)


Coaches That Could Move Up To Major Programs

None, but Stanford’s David Shaw has been rumored for years to be in the mix for a future NFL head coaching position.


Coaches On The Hot Seat

Clay Helton, USC

Helton begins the year with the hottest seat in college football.  He better win the BYU game in Provo, or who knows?  He could be met with his pink slip on the airport tarmac.  The Trojans’ schedule is a nightmare for a coach on the hot seat.  As if playing nine tough conference games isn’t enough, USC’s out-of-conference slate includes Fresno State, BYU, and Notre Dame.  If the Trojans go 2-1 in these games and then go 7-2 in the Pac-12 to win the South Division flag, Helton might keep his job.  Anything less, and Athletics Director Lynn Swann will have to make a move, assuming he still has his job.  Just remember, it only takes Urban Meyer one year to feel healthy enough to coach again.  There are also excellent options in Chris Peterson, Matt Campbell, Dino Babers, and even a current NFL coach.


Top Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Oregon

J. T. Daniels, USC

K.J. Costello, Stanford

Khalil Tate, Arizona

Keep eyes on Washington’s Jacob Eason and Washington State’s Gage Gebrud.


Top Offense





Top Defense





Coming Tomorrow: The Big 12 Conference–Oklahoma loses Heisman Trophy quarterback Kyler Murray and replaces him with former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts.  Will Hurts make a run at the hardware competing against his former teammate?

Can Texas build upon their progress made last year, or will Iowa State or Baylor emerge as the principle rival to the Sooners this year?


August 17, 2018

2018 Pac-12 Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.
Our Power 5 Conference preseason ratings and won-loss predictions were figured before knowing the outcome of recent suspensions to Coaches Urban Meyer and D.J. Durkin at Ohio State and Maryland. Because our ratings set 100.0 as average, and the mean of all 130 teams must be 100.0, taking points away from Ohio State and Maryland require redistributing points to the other 128 teams. Expect these ratings to change prior to August 25.

The Washington Huskies are loaded with top talent at several positions, but they are inexperienced at a key position. On offense, Coach Chris Petersen welcomes back the league’s best passer in Jake Browning. Browning’s junior season was not as exceptional as his fabulous sophomore season, and he returns to move his draft stock up with a comeback year, if you can call a 19 TD/5 Int. 152.1 efficiency rating one to come back from.
Running back Myles Gaskin crossed the goalline 24 times last year, 21 of those while rushing for some of his 1,380 yards. Backup Salvon Ahmed provides a speedier second option to the more powerful Gaskin, and UW should rush for 200 yards per game this year behind one of the top offensive lines in the nation. Left tackle Trey Adams could be a first round draft pick next Spring. Right tackle Kaleb McGary should contend for first team All Pac-12.
It’s the receiver position that will determine if the Huskies will average better than 40 points per game or just 28-35 points per game this year. Dante Pettis may have been a little eccentric, but he was the best receiver at Husky Stadium the last two seasons.

Petersen is hoping that freshman phenom Marquis Spiker can step in immediately and be the go-to guy. Spiker has size and speed with soft hands, and he will get better and better every day going up in practice against the best college secondary in the nation and best in the Pac-12 since USC featured Ronnie Lott and Dennis Smith four decades ago. If Chico McClatcher can return to form following an early 2017 injury, and Aaron Fuller and Ty Jones continue to show progress, this unit will be anything but a liability.

Now for the defense. Last year, UW gave up 16.1 points per game in a conference known for its wide open offenses. The Huskies easily led the Pac-12 in total defense, surrendering just 298 yards per game. With the offense being as strong as it is, if the defense were to be almost as good as last year, the Huskies could run the table in the regular season. The defense will be different this year, but to the disgust of the rest of the league, it will be better, maybe considerably better.

As mentioned before, UW has the nation’s top defensive backfield. All five starters from the 3-3-5 alignment return after 15 interceptions and 47 broken up passes. Four different cornerbacks could contend for all-league honors, if you count the nickel position as a third cornerback. Best of the group is Byron Murphy, who in just six games last year, intercepted three passes and recorded seven broken up passes. Murphy is more than an exceptional pass defender; he’s also an outstanding run stuffer and zone blitzer.

This secondary is multi-dimensional, and there is a leading contender for first team All-American at safety. Taylor Rapp is the best free safety not in the NFL. Rapp is like having Willie Mays in center field. He plays like there are two of him in the game, one to stop running plays for short gains or losses and to drop quarterbacks when on a blitz, and one to keep enemy receivers from getting any farther if they catch the ball.

The Huskies are not a one-trick pony on defense. It takes a strong pass rush to make the secondary shine, and UW has an incredible front six, making it the best pass rush in the Pac-12. Additionally, the Huskies led the league in rushing defense and finished fourth nationally. Nose tackle Greg Gaines does what a nose tackle is supposed to do. He takes up two gaps in the middle and stops most everything that comes his way. Unlike most NTs, he can get out of the block and rush the passer better than the average behemoth. Inside linebacker Ben Burr-Kirven is undersized, but he led Washington in tackles last year and could repeat this year and approach 100 total tackles.

Washington will get a chance to show whether they belong in the 2018-19 Playoffs when they begin the season against Auburn in the Chick-fil-A Classic in Atlanta. After long delays, the automated retractable roof is now working at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and Husky fans should do a rain dance that day in hopes that the roof will be closed. A hot and humid Saturday afternoon could give Auburn a 7-12 point advantage, and the Huskies need to win this game to make up for the fact that their strength of schedule will hurt them in the playoff discussion.

Washington will not just waltz to the Pac-12 North Division title. They will face some stiff competition from Stanford and Oregon, and California might be waiting in ambush.

Stanford returns enough talent from 2017 to be a serious contender for the division and overall conference championship. The offense is in the capable hands of quarterback K.J. Costello and the more than capable feet of running back Bryce Love. Costello is an excellent game-manager, and part of that stellar management is pivoting and handing the ball off to Love. The All-American back rushed for 2,118 yards and 19 touchdowns last year, averaging better than eight yards per attempt. He is the number one contender for the Heisman Trophy this year, but he will have to top 2,000 yards again to get it. It’s possible if he stays healthy.

The Cardinal return their top two receivers from 2017. Trenton Irwin and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside teamed up to catch 91 passes and score 11 touchdowns. Usually, Stanford has a fine stable of tight ends, and they have two fine ones returning in Colby Parkinson and Kaden Smith. Neither is afraid to run across the middle of the field and haul in an important pass with a rib-crushing safety aiming for a maiming.

The offensive line returns four starters plus some key backups that could wind up starting, so the offense should once again be consistent if not flashy. Stanford should top 200 rushing yards and approach 200 passing yards while scoring 30-35 points per game.
Defensively, the Cardinal do not have Washington’s talent, but the unit does a good job of bending and not breaking. The strongest unit is at linebacker, where Bobby Okereke made 88 tackles, including 8 1/2 for loss. Stanford also has one of the two best kicking games in the league. Placekicker Jet Toner was perfect on PATs and went 21 of 26 on field goal attempts with nine coming from beyond 40 yards. Punter Jake Bailey averaged 45.4 yards per punt with a net of 41.0. As a kickoff specialist, 70% of his kickoffs resulted in touchbacks.

Oregon lost big to Washington, Washington State, and Stanford last year, so the Ducks are not yet back to where they were under Chip Kelly and the beginning of the Mark Helfrich era. The Ducks have a chance to take a leap forward with a lot of talented and experienced players returning, but at the start of 2018, they are behind their two divisional rivals and having to fight off a challenge from the Golden Bears to their south. An inconsistent offense should be a tad more consistent this year, while the somewhat porous defense should improve with the return of defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt bringing his aggressive style back to Eugene.

Quarterback Justin Herbert didn’t officially qualify due to not meeting the minimum number of pass attempts, but had he qualified, he would have led the Pac-12 in passing efficiency last year. Herbert averaged 9.6 yards per pass attempt with a 15/5 TD/Int ratio. His running ability is not on par with Marcus Mariota, but he’s the next best thing to hit Autzen Stadium since the former Heisman Trophy winner matriculated to the NFL.

Tony Brooks-James tries to replace Royce Freeman after Freeman rushed for 1,475 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. Brooks-James has six career 100-yard rushing games, including two in the Pac-12 last year. A competent but not spectacular offensive line should allow Brooks-James to top 1,000 rushing yards if he stays healthy.

The one questionable unit on the attack side is the receiving corps. Dillon Mitchell is the closest thing to a star in this unit, and he led the Ducks with 42 receptions and 517 yards. Tight end Jacon Breeland is the go to receiver in the red zone. He led the Ducks with 5 TD receptions in 2017.

The defense should put up better numbers in 2018 than it did in 2017, when the Ducks surrendered 29 points and 369 yards per game. Up front, tackle Jordan Scott and end Jalen Jelks are excellent run-stuffers. Jelks can also introduce an enemy quarterback to the turf, as he led Oregon with 7 sacks. He can also drop off in pass coverage and defend the short flat and hook zones.

Linebacker Troy Dye is the top star on the stop side. Dye recorded 107 tackles with 14 for loss, but he may be more remembered for scooping up a Boise State Statue of Liberty Play fumble in the Las Vegas Bowl and returning it for a touchdown.

The Duck defensive backfield is a question mark, but safety Ugo Amadi returns after intercepting four passes last year. Oregon gave up 241 passing yards per game, and the pass rush must be better this year for this less experienced secondary to bring that number down.

Oregon’s non-conference schedule is quite weak, but it isn’t going to matter, because the Ducks are not going to be a playoff contender. The easy 3-0 start will allow the Ducks to enter conference play with confidence and momentum, and when Stanford invades Autzen Stadium in week four, Oregon should be primed for an upset bid. Oregon also hosts Washington, but road games with California, Washington State, Arizona, and Utah could be challenging.

California just missed bowl eligibility last year, with close losses to Stanford and UCLA at the end putting an end to a season that began on a bright note with a 3-0 start that included victories over North Carolina and Ole Miss. This year, the Bears could start 3-0 again, but with the experience returning to Berkeley, the students might be hugging them rather than the trees around the stadium. Cal is a dark horse contender in the North this year, and second year coach Justin Wilcox’s troops should return to a bowl game.

The Bear offense is poised to take a considerable leap forward with the return of 10 starters and many key backups. Quarterback Ross Bowers may not remind any Cal fans of Aaron Rodgers, but he has improved enough as a rising junior to have fought off a competition with former South Carolina starter Brandon McIlwain. Bowers has two very talented and experienced receivers; Vic Wharton and Kanawai Noa teamed up for 123 receptions and 1,659 yards last year. True freshman Nikko Remigio will get an opportunity to show off his afterburners and could find his way into the mix this year.

Defensively is where we expect Cal to make the most improvement. The Bears were almost like a skeleton defense giving token pressure against quarterbacks last year, but most of the pass defenders are back with more experience and improved skills. Last year’s numbers were actually an improvement over 2016, when they chopped two touchdowns off their averages. We’re not talking Washington’s defense, but Cal could trim three points and 30 yards off their 2017 numbers this year and pick up the extra wins they need to play again in December.

Some of our subscribers when they first joined the PiRate Ratings, believed that our name derived from our support of Mike Leach, the Pirate. If you notice, we are “PiRate Ratings” and not “Pirate Ratings,” as we used to actually be the “Pi-Rate Ratings” in a prior medium. It has nothing to do with Leach or East Carolina for that matter. When you think of Coach Leach, you think of a wide open passing attack and a lot of interesting midweek press conferences. It took him a couple years, but he has made Washington State football exciting and somewhat successful again.

This year, the Cougars will take a step backward and be hard-pressed to finish above .500 overall. WSU must rebuild on the attack side, as they must replace Quarterback Luke Falk (3,593 passing yards and 30 touchdowns), three key receivers, the top running back, and three offensive line starters. Fret not for the Cougars; they will move the ball and score points like always, but they won’t be as consistent as they have been the last two seasons.

Replacing the school’s all-time leading passer is the top priority, and Washington State will most likely turn to graduate transfer Gardner Minshew to run the offense. At East Carolina, a school that runs the same offense, Minshew completed 57% of his passes for 2,140 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. In November, Minshew got a chance to hum the ball all over the field, as in those four games, he averaged 34 completions and 372 passing yards.

There are still some fine receivers on the roster, including running back James Williams, who led the team with 71 catches and Tay Martin, the game-breaker who turned six of his 31 catches into scores as a freshman in 2017.

The running attack officially averaged just 68 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush. However, these stats are misleading. Take out the quarterback sacks. These are not running plays. They are passing plays that failed. The rest of the running plays showed WSU averaged 4.6 yards per real running attempt. Thus, the loss of Jamal Morrow, and his 522 yard rushing and 506 yards receiving will be felt more than expected.

If WSU is to make their third consecutive bowl appearance, the defense will have to step up and continue to come up with outstanding performances. Last year, the stop troops held Oregon to 10 points, Stanford to 21, and Utah to 25. Overall, the Cougars gave up 25.8 points and 323 yards per game. Most of the back eight players return, but the defensive front needs remodeling. Strong safety Jalen Thompson led the team in tackles and in interceptions, and he could vie for first team All Pac-12 honors this year.

Washington State may have some issues in their kicking game. A steady kicker has yet to be uncovered, and the punting game will not be as strong as last year either.

Oregon State has a long way to go to become a contender again in the Pac-12 North. The Beavers went 1-11 last year with the lone win coming over Portland State; they trailed in that game with just over a minute remaining and were out-gained by 126 yards.

The Beavers welcome back native son Jonathan Smith as head coach (see new coaches section), and Smith hopes to install a lot of the Washington philosophy, where he served as offensive coordinator. Oregon State’s offense finished last in the league in scoring and total yards, so it is a long road to respectability. Smith will move away from the spread to the pro-style offense, and it will take two or three years to get enough players recruited to that offense to have a chance at contending in the division. Quarterback Jake Luton is coming back from a spine fracture, and it could take some time to get his timing back while trying to learn a new offense. The Beavers may actually regress from their 21 points and 334 yard averages of last year.

Oregon State gave up a league worst 43 points per game last year, with only two other teams nationally performing worse. At least the defense was balanced; the Beavers gave up 236 yards per game rushing and 237 yards per game passing. Many of the few Pac-12 caliber players graduated. The two best returning players are safeties Jalen Moore and David Morris, but it is never a great thing when your two safeties finish with the most tackles every week.

The South Division should be an interesting race, and because no team is considerably better than the others, it would not be surprising if the division champion had a 6-3 conference record. The PiRate Ratings work differently than most every other system, because in the preseason, we actually factor into each team’s ratings a unique adjustment constant based on the quality of their depth and other intangibles like having to adjust to something new. We bring this up, because the team with the fifth best preseason PiRate Rating could be the team with the best PiRate Rating in late November due to the learning curve and forward improvement expected. Read on, and you will see what we mean.

USC begins the season ranked at the top of this division’s PiRate Ratings. The Trojans won a lot of close games with arguably the best quarterback in the nation last year in Sam Darnold. It is a strong possibility that the starting quarterback when USC takes the field against UNLV will be someone that in his last real game, passed for 233 yards playing for Mater Dei High School against De Lasalle in the CIF State Championship Game. J.T. Daniels may be the next great quarterback in USC history, but as a true freshman, he will be quite a drop off from the next Joe Namath in New York Jets’ history. Expect the Trojans to take some lumps against strong defensive teams, but expect Daniels to make some eye-popping plays with his arm and legs, because USC’s offense is strongest in its offensive line.

Defensively, the Trojans should be about on par with last year if not a little better, when they gave up 26 points and 396 yards per game. The Trojans are one of a handful of teams that use the new 2-4-5 defense, a variation of the popular 4-2-5 but with more agile outside linebackers playing on the edges. USC can excel with this package, because they have a stable full of talented linebackers. Cameron Smith finished second in the league with 112 total tackles, 11 of which went for lost yardage. Fellow inside linebacker John Houston added 84 tackles and broke up four passes.

The key to whether the pass defense will thrive is the pass rush, and the Trojans have to replace their two sackmeisters from last year. Rasheem Green was a third round pick of the Seahawks, and Uchenna Nwosu was a second round pick of the Chargers. All hopes rest on another great year from end Christian Rector, who made 7 1/2 sacks as a part-time starter.

The back line of defense returns four of five starters from last year plus the top reserve, and the Trojans should have their share of interceptions and deflected passes like last year. Cornerback Iman Marshall had 10 passes broken up, and his opposite side partner Jalen Jones had four interceptions and seven passes broken up. Safety Marvell Tell intercepted three passes to go along with 85 tackles.

USC’s schedule presents numerous roadblocks, especially in the first month when Daniels will be trying to gain experience and confidence. Back-to-back road games against Stanford and Texas will be tough. The Trojans begin the season as the light favorite to win the South, but by October, they could be an also-ran if the offense doesn’t gel.

Utah was off to a 4-0 start last year when the wheels came off due to injuries and tougher opposition. At 4-4, a bowl bid was in serious jeopardy, but the Utes recovered to beat UCLA and Colorado to earn a trip to the Heart of Dallas Bowl, where they topped West Virginia to clinch a winning record. Coach Kyle Whittingham has a fabulous freshman quarterback too, but his isn’t expected to start like at USC. Tyler Huntley returns as the starter after showing some decent dual-threat skills. Huntley missed some games with injuries last year, so true freshman Jack Tuttle could see serious action during the season. Tuttle was offered scholarships by SEC powers Alabama and LSU, so it figures that he will eventually be a force in the Pac-12.

To run the spread option, your running back has to be strong and agile, as he will receive a lot of punishment. The Utes have a fine bruiser in Zak Moss, who finished 2017 with 1,173 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Moss is powerful with a low center of gravity, and he can quickly make a cut for an extra five yards.

The offensive line is good but not great, while the receiving corps has room for improvement. Utah’s offense is not excellent like others in this league, because they have questions at wideout and at tight end. Siaosi Mariner is the lone player with significant starting experience, and he caught just 20 passes a year ago. He made the most of those 20 catches, averaging close to 20 yards per reception.

The reason why Utah is not expected to win the division is a defense that must reload up front and in the secondary. A lot of quality talent returns to the defensive side of the ball, but maybe not enough to sustain the excellent results produced last year. Up front, Bradely Anae led the Utes with 7 QB sacks from his end position. He’s the lone starter returning to the line of the 4-2-5 defense. Linebacker Chase Hansen is the lone returning starting linebacker. He made 51 tackles last year and was all over the field. Cornerback Julian Blackmon led the Utes with four interceptions, and opponents will likely pass away from his side of the field more and more this year.

Utah may have the nation’s top kicking tandem. Punter Mitch Wishnowsky has one Ray Guy Award trophy from 2016 and is a leading contender to get a second. Kicker Matt Gay won the Lou Groza Award trophy as the top kicker in the nation. Gay was a perfect 40 of 40 on extra points and made an incredible 30 of 34 field goals. Gay didn’t put up those gaudy numbers kicking chip shot field goals. He made eight from 50 yards or more, including two 56-yarders.

Arizona has the best overall quarterback in the Pac-12 in Khalil Tate. If you remove quarterback sacks, the junior phenom topped 1,500 yards rushing and passing last year. He did this despite missing two full games and parts of another. Tate won’t be running Rich Rodriguez’s zone read offense this year, as Rich Rod is not there any more. New coach Kevin Sumlin’s offense is more of a passing offense, and Tate will most likely fail to rush for 1,000 yards but could approach 3,000 passing yards. It is a gamble to deviate from an offense that led the league with 41.3 points and 490 yards per game.
In Tate’s favor, Arizona returns almost all of their contributing receivers including all four starters, a part-time starter and three of the four top reserves. Arizona should top 250 passing yards per game. Co-starter J.J. Taylor returns at running back after leading the non-Tate runners with 847 yards and a 5.8 yard average. The offensive line needs some repairs, but there was depth here last year, and this unit should perform more than adequately.

The Wildcat defense was almost as inept at the offense was brilliant. The Wildcats finished dead last in pass defense, so returning the secondary and linebacker corps in full may or may not be a great thing. The four starting defensive backs made a dozen interceptions, and the starting linebacker trio teamed up for 16 1/2 sacks and 232 total tackles. The defensive line is the major question mark here. After giving up 185 rushing yards last year, UA could see those numbers worsen in 2018.

If the offensive personnel buy into Sumlin’s offense, Arizona can contend for the South Division title. If they struggle, the Wildcats could fall to as low as 5th place in the division.

Arizona State Athletics Director Ray Anderson is playing Russian Roulette knowing that the first two pulls of the trigger didn’t have the live bullet. Hiring Herm Edwards as head coach will certainly get the Sun Devils a lot of publicity. When USC hired Pete Carroll, he came to Troy with 11 years of college coaching experience. When Penn State hired Bill O’Brien from the New England Patriots, he came to Happy Valley with 14 years of college coaching experience. Edwards has just three years of college coaching experience that happened 30 years ago. He hasn’t coached at all in 10 years. This gamble has little precedence where a coach came out of a double-digit year retirement to take over a team in the level that he lacked experience coaching. We can only come up with legendary Hall of Famer Bud Wilkinson, who came out of retirement to coach the St. Louis Cardinals in the NFL 15 years after retiring as head coach of the Oklahoma Sooners. Wilkinson went 9-20 in 1 1/2 seasons before losing his job.

Edwards uses the Tommy Lasorda method of motivation, and maybe his younger players will buy into what his NFL players often did not. There is some talent in the fold, especially on offense where the Sun Devils averaged 32 points and 431 yards per game. Quarterback Manny Wilkins is not one of the top five passers in the league, but he is rather consistent. Except for the Utah game, his stats were generally about the same week in and week out. He has never had the same offensive coordinator in consecutive years, and this year is no different. The receiving tandem of N’Keal Harry and Kyle Williams combined for 148 receptions and 1,905 receiving yards, but the depth is thin behind these two.

The Sun Devils are a bit thin in the backfield and must replace their top two backs, including 1,000-yard rusher Demario Richard and the big power runner, Kalen Ballage.
Edwards was a defensive star in the NFL, and he tends to coach in a style that helps his defense as much as possible. ASU’s defense will need all the help it can get this year with major losses up front in the trenches and at safety. The Sun Devils will switch to a 3-3-5 defense, and they will take their lumps learning this new system against the high octane offenses in the Pac-12. Cornerbacks Chase Lucas and Kobe Williams give ASU a pair of serviceable defenders to build around, but the talent level is not Pac-12 worthy at safety. Expect to see backup cornerback Jalen Harvey moving to safety to try to add a little more talent on the field.

At linebacker, Arizona State has little depth and even less experience. Koron Crump looked like a potential star last year until his season ended in after playing just three games. He was given an extra year of eligibility and should become the leader of the defense.

Edwards needs to win the locker room quickly this year, as the Sun Devils face a tough trio of opponents in September. After beginning with a semi-breather against UTSA, games against Michigan State, San Diego State, and Washington follow, the latter two being road games. If ASU can come out of this stretch at 2-2, they have a chance to sneak into a bowl at 6-6 or even 7-5. If they are 1-3, they could be headed in a downward spiral to 3-9.

Colorado is at a crossroads in the Mike MacIntyre tenure. The Buffaloes followed up a South Division title in 2016 with a slide back to 2-7 in league play last year. Facing a monumental rebuilding project on offense, things could get worse in Boulder before they get better. Football in the Pac-12 has never been what it was for CU when they were in the Big 12, Big 8, or even the old Skyline Conference. Colorado is not a great fit as the remote outpost to the east. The PiRate’s Captain used to attend games at Folsom Field and was on the CU sidelines the day the Buffaloes destroyed number one Nebraska 62-36 and start the beginning of the end of the Frank Solich era in Lincoln. The two former bitter rivals will finally play again this year when the Buffs visit Lincoln in September.

One of the few offensive holdover for CU is quarterback Steven Montez. When not rushed, Montez has loads of talent and natural ability, and he can pick a defense apart. When rushed and forced to think on the run, as Washington’s defense made him run all day, Montez seems to become the college version of Ryan Fitzpatrick. He must cut down on his mental lapses and throw the ball away or run and take a dive before contact for CU to move out of the basement in the Pac-12 South this year.

Running back Travon McMillian decided to become a one-year free agent after playing at Virginia Tech. McMillian rushed for over 1,000 yards as a freshman in Frank Beamer’s offense, but he did not flourish the last two years in the Justin Fuente offense in Blacksburg. McMillian could top 1,000 yards in Boulder, but he is a step down from last year’s star Phillip Lindsey.

The receiving corps is a mess after the loss of three high quality wideouts that all were signed as undrafted free agents by NFL teams. Jay MacIntyre and Juwann Winfree lead the returnees after catching 28 and 21 passes respectively. Winfree has the potential to be a star if another receiver can prevent him from being double-teamed.

The Buffalo defense took a step backward last year, giving up more than 28 points per game after surrendering only 21.7 the year before. They gave up 107 more total yards per game as well, as they could not stop dual threat quarterbacks and big running backs. The line and linebacking units are not up to par with the other South Division schools, and the secondary will break down if there is not a better than expected pass rush. Linebackers Rick Gamboa and Drew Lewis return after finishing one-two in tackles, but too many of those tackles were made five yards and more past the line of scrimmage. They need nose tackle Javier Edwards to have a breakout season and keep blockers away from the duo. Expect four or five true freshmen to see significant action on this side of the ball.

Most of the Buffs’ winnable games occur in the first half of the season, and a 4-2 start is a must if they are to have any chance of sneaking into a bowl. They will need to find two or three upset victims in the second half to play again in December, and we cannot see a legitimate path there.

Now, for the biggest unknown of the college football season. UCLA won the race with Florida to secure Chip Kelly as their new head coach (see the new coaches section below). Kelly creates instant excitement in Westwood, where the NFL’s Rams and Chargers look to both make a playoff run this year. Kelly may not have the same amount of quickness his Oregon teams had, but he will welcome some extra muscle with the Bruins in 2018.

In order to make the spread offense with the zone read work, you have to have a smart quarterback with deceptive running ability or outright sprinter’s speed. Two of the three contenders to replace Josh Rosen at quarterback have the dual-threat talent Kelly is looking for, but he also has an experienced starter from the Big Ten on board for a year, who happens to be more of a pure dropback passer. Wilton Speight started 16 times for Michigan in 2016 and 2017. His best games came in 2016, but he has played against the likes of Florida, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State with decent results. The quarterback race may not be settled until the Bruins begin preparing for Cincinnati in late August. Whoever eventually wins the job should get better as the season progresses, because Kelly’s offense needs a good number of snaps to fully grasp how to make it dangerous. Kelly has mentioned that he doesn’t want a running back that cannot throw for his quarterback, so Speight might have a slight advantage over Devon Modster and true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but DTR has the potential to be another Marcus Mariota.

The Bruins will most likely use Soso Jamabo and Bolu Olorunfumi interchangeably at the running back position. Jamabo will probably get the edge to start due to his ability to hit the wide holes of the read option quicker, but Olorunfumi might get more opportunities near the goalline with his straight ahead power.

Whoever wins the QB battle will have a huge target to find in the seams in tight ends Caleb Wilson and Devin Asiasi. Asiasi has some decent moves for a 287-pound monster. Enemy safeties will not like having to stop him mano a mano. Theo Howard is the top wideout on this team, and he could emerge as a 70-catch, 750-yard star if Speight wins the quarterback battle.

The offensive line may not have as many stars as some of the other contenders, but Kelly’s offense makes it easier to succeed with slightly better than average blocking. The Bruins may start off a bit slow as they get used to running the offense against live opponents, but by mid-October, they should be starting to look like a typical Kelly team, if there is such a thing. Kelly has been known to run the ball over 60 times in a game and pass the ball more than 60 times the next game, as he did at New Hampshire in back-to-back wins.

The Bruin defense figures to be improved over last year, and the amount of improvement will determine whether they can make a run to bowl eligibility. The farther back you go on this side, the more talented the units are. Defensive line will be a glaring weakness and the only reason why UCLA will not challenge for the division flag this year. How bad was the run defense last year? How about dead last in the entire FBS with an average yield of 287 yards per game! This was without playing a service academy or Georgia Tech that could have inflated the number. The Bruins gave up 457 yards on the ground in an 47-30 loss to Arizona; 405 rushing yards to Stanford in a 58-34 loss; and more than 300 yards in three other games.

The Bruins will transition to a 3-4 defense, and linebacker Jaelan Phillips should get a chance to live up to his press clippings coming out of high school. Phillips recorded 3 1/2 sacks and 7 total tackles for loss as a freshmen in limited action last year, and he could double those numbers this season. Nate Meadors anchors the back line after having 9 passes defended, including a pick 6 against Arizona State. Fellow cornerback Darnay Holmes led the Bruins as a freshman with 3 picks, one of which he took back all the way against Hawaii.

We want to make sure you understand this point. Our mechanical PiRate Ratings below will paint the worst possible picture on UCLA, and this does not actually reflect the expected improvement throughout the season as UCLA gets more and more familiar with the Kelly offense. We expect the Bruins to challenge for a bowl bid this year, and by November, nobody will want to face this team.
Here is how the Big 12 Conference Media voted in the preseason poll

North Division 1st Place Points
1. Washington 40 249
2. Stanford 1 198
3. Oregon 1 178
4. California 0 108
5. Washington St. 0 98
6. Oregon St. 0 45
South Division 1st Place Points
1. USC 22 225
2. Utah 14 209
3. Arizona 3 178
4. UCLA 2 116
5. Colorado 1 80
6. Arizona St. 0 72
Pac-12 Championship Game Winner
Washington 37
Oregon 1
Stanford 1

The PiRate Ratings differ somewhat, and as we have mentioned, we expect considerable movement in these ratings, especially in the wide-open South Division.

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 0-0 0-0 128.1 125.0 130.7 127.9
Stanford 0-0 0-0 120.3 117.5 121.0 119.6
Oregon 0-0 0-0 114.4 114.5 115.1 114.7
California 0-0 0-0 110.3 107.5 110.1 109.3
Washington St. 0-0 0-0 107.0 105.8 105.4 106.1
Oregon St. 0-0 0-0 88.5 86.0 86.9 87.1
South Division
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 0-0 0-0 112.5 110.7 111.8 111.7
Utah 0-0 0-0 111.0 109.0 111.9 110.7
Arizona 0-0 0-0 109.9 107.6 110.0 109.1
Arizona St. 0-0 0-0 105.4 103.3 103.8 104.2
U C L A 0-0 0-0 102.5 102.2 100.0 101.5
Colorado 0-0 0-0 98.9 100.4 100.1 99.8
Pac-12 Averages 109.1 107.4 108.9 108.5

New Coaches
The Pac-12 tends to have a lot of coaching turnover, and this year is no different. The only difference this year, is that the coaching changes made more headlines than normal.

Oregon didn’t hold onto Willie Taggart very long. Taggart returned to the Sunshine State. Former Sunshine State coach Mario Cristobal, returns to the head coaching ranks after serving as an associate head coach at Alabama for four seasons ans offensive coordinator here last year. Known as an excellent recruiter, Cristobal should continue the winning tradition in Eugene.

Just up the road an hour, Oregon State hired Jonathan Smith to try to pull the Beavers out of the nosedive that has given them sole position in the basement. Smith was offensive coordinator at Washington the last four years, but more importantly, he is one of the all-time favorite Beavers. As quarterback at OSU, he guided the Beavers to their best ever season in 2000, when they went 11-1 with a win in the Fiesta Bowl.

All the controversy took place in the Grand Canyon State. Arizona fired Rich Rodriguez amid allegations of harassment by a former administrative staffer, but probably more because the Wildacts were not competing for the division title. The Wildcats turned to Kevin Sumlin, who Texas A&M has just fired for leading the Aggies to multi-year mediocre and unacceptable finishes (four consecutive 5-loss seasons).

Arizona State made the most controversial coaching hire this century. The Sun Devils let go of Todd Graham after he guided ASU to a second place finish in the South Division. Graham had one first place and three second place finishes in six years in Tempe, but that was not good enough to keep the job. So, who did the Sun Devils go out and hire to take them to new heights? Former NFL coach and ESPN commentator Herm Edwards. Edwards last coached in 2008, when he guided the Kansas City Chiefs to a 2-14 record following a 4-12 season in 2017. He has very limited college coaching experience, having served as the defensive backfield coach at San Jose State the first three years following his retirement as a player in the NFL. He does have the unique distinction of having a play named for him. The end of game play with the quarterback taking a knee out of the victory formation is called the Herm Edwards Play, due to the Miracle in the Meadowlands in 1978, where instead of falling on the ball, New York Giants QB Joe Pisarcik tried to hand off to Larry Csonka. The snap was bobbled, Pisarcik missed the hand-off and fumbled, and Edwards scooped it up and ran for a touchdown to win the game.

And, then there is the most talked-about coaching change. Chip Kelly returns to the college ranks after trying his hand in the NFL. He takes over at UCLA, after Jim Mora, Jr., like his father, couldn’t talk about playoffs. UCLA figures to have an adjustment period early, but as the season goes on, and the players get some game-time experience, expect the Bruins to improve by 10-13 points.

Predicted Won-Loss Records
Note: These predicted won-loss records are strictly mechanical based on the initial PiRate Ratings. No upsets are factored in these predictions. Additionally, our PiRate Ratings are only useful for the next week of games and cannot really be used to forecast past that point. Part of our weekly adjustment to our ratings includes a factor where depth issues or non-issues have been pre-set. In other words, a team without talented second stringers may lose ratings points as the season progresses even if they win games by the predicted margin, whereas a team with exceptional depth (like Alabama) will improve during the season and see its rating rise even if they win games by a little less than the predicted margin. What we’re saying is: don’t take these numbers with anything more than a grain of salt. In the case of UCLA, if they played any of the 12 games on their schedule next week, they might win just one as the predictions will show. But, if they were to play any of the 12 games on their schedule on November 24, they might win 10.

Pac-12 Conference
Team Conference Overall
Washington 9-0 13-0*
Stanford 8-1 10-2
Oregon 7-2 10-2
California 4-5 7-5
Washington St. 3-6 6-6
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11
Team Conference Overall
Utah 6-3 9-4
USC 6-3 7-5
Arizona 5-4 8-4
Arizona St. 3-6 5-7
Colorado 2-7 4-8
UCLA 0-9 1-11
* Washington picked to win Pac-12 Champ. Game

Bowl Tie-ins
1. Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA
2. Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX
3. Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA
4. San Francisco Bowl in San Francisco, CA
5. Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX
6. Las Vegas Bowl in Las Vegas, NV
7. Cactus Bowl in Tucson, AZ

Coming Tomorrow–The Big Ten Conference

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