Crash! Like a meteorite falling to Earth, our picks free-fell and left a tail of fire as they fell. In just two lousy weeks, a 16-5 start with an incredible profit has been reduced to a minor loss after failing to pick a single correct selection last week.
Of course, the good news for those of you that read this strictly for enjoyment is that your profit and loss statement has remained the same as ours, nothing wagered and nothing lost or gained, so we can come right back with some selections, knowing we will still have the same amount of money in our real accounts, regardless of what our imaginary accounts indicate.
This week, we add a couple of teaser selections, something we have used in the past, sometimes with very successful results and sometimes stinkers. When we issue teaser selections, it is more important which numbers the teasers pass than the teams involved. We look to change the margin in a way that picks up a large percentage in historical actual spread. Teasing through 3, 6, 7, 10, and 13 points picks up some extra oomph. Additionally, being able to tease a favorite down to just 1 point is another good option. And, if you can tease a favorite into an underdog status of 3 1/2 points or 7 1/2 points, you enjoy some extra advantage.
We haven’t forgotten money line parlays this week, as we have a 3-team parlay going off at better than 2-1 odds, something that won big for us in September.
Without further adieu, here are this week’s selections.
Selection #1: Iowa State +17 vs. Texas
When the margin went from 16 1/2 to 17 late Wednesday afternoon (when this feature is composed), this became a play for us. While we believe this is a single-digit game, we waited for that precious half-point. Iowa State’s defense can slow down the combination of Ewers and Robinson, maybe not enough to win, but enough to lose by 7-13 points.
Selection #2: North Carolina State + 3 1/2 vs. Syracuse
Syracuse being undefeated is a feel good story, but we think the wrong team is favored, and getting that hook onto the 3 makes it quite attractive for our system.
Selection #3: 6-point teaser with 2 games @ -110
Alabama -1 vs. Tennessee
North Carolina -1 vs. Duke
As we mentioned above, teasing a favorite down to 1 point is something we like. We believe the Tide and Tar Heels will both win, and teasing down to 1 is valuable
Selection #4: 9-point teaser with 3 games @ -107
Clemson +5 1/2 vs. Florida St.
Arkansas + 7 1/2 vs. BYU
Illinois + 15 1/2 vs. Minnesota
Taking Clemson from -3 1/2 to +5 1/2 goes through 3 on both sides, and we like the percentage advantage knowing that a 3-point CU loss still wins for this selection. Taking Arkansas from favorite to underdog by more than 7 and knowing that K. J. Jefferson is now likely to play makes the second leg very attractive. Taking a hot home dog and making them more than a 2-touchdown underdog in a game we believe the Illini have a 35-40% chance of winning completes the trio.
Selection #5: Money Line Parlay @ +238.81
Baylor over West Virginia
Miami (O) over Bowling Green
Oregon State over Washington State
West Virginia coach Neal Brown, hoping to not be fired in midseason like five others have been fired so far, has made statements that he knew turning around the Mountaineer program would be a long process. When a coach says this, he is admitting that his team is outmanned. Brown’s job is only a little more secure than Bryan Harsin’s job at the moment, while Baylor is still in the Big 12 race to finish in second place and make the conference championship game.
Miami of Ohio might lose another conference game this year, but we can’t see woeful Bowling Green being that team.
Oregon State and Washington State should be an excellent game to watch as an impartial football fan. The two teams are stronger than many give credit for, and we think the Beavers’ home field advantage is worth just enough to give OSU a slight advantage.
Remember: Don‘t wager real money on these games!
Special Note: We here at the PiRate Ratings do not report on rumors, as we previously were professional sports journalists. In order to report on a story, we wanted two different sources independent of each other to give us nearly identical information. We have such information, and the news is not good for Auburn football coach Bryan Harsin. Rumors of his being dismissed now have two different sources telling us that a substantial loss to Ole Miss this weekend would be the end of his coaching tenure at the Loveliest Village On The Plains. What substantial means was not explained.
Comments Off on PiRate Picks for October 13-15, 2022
By the time one reaches his or her 60’s, he or she probably knows somebody close, maybe a member of his/her family or a friend that has passed on to the hereafter, when the dearly departed seemed just fine a couple months before passing. Maybe, it was an unexpected cardiovascular issue. Maybe it was cancer that was detected too late and was well into the fourth stage. In too many cases in the last 18 months, maybe it was Covid, where the person was asymptomatic until symptoms developed followed by the cytokine storm that shut down the body organs.
The Big 12 Conference was like a friend, the child of very good friends known as the Southwest Conference and the Big 8 Conference. Just a few weeks ago, the Big 12 was asymptomatic, until July 21. On that day a media doctor in Houston diagnosed a potentially fatal disease that has the Big 12 in the process of going through the five stages of death.
Immediately, once that specialist in Houston diagnosed Realignment Syndrome, and that the conferences’ top two revenue generators were terminal, the first step of the process was denial. No, it was not true; Texas and Oklahoma were not leaving for the SEC.
Then, the second stage, anger quickly replaced the denial once it became official that the two schools had applied for admission to the SEC. After anger came bargaining. The Big 12 hurriedly tried to make an arrangement with other conferences, probably the Pac-12 and definitely the American Athletic Conference. When the rumors began to circulate that the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 were looking at an alternative to compete against the SEC, it became time for depression to set in. By the time the 2021-2022 football season concludes, the Big 12 will come to an acceptance and realize it is beyond their control.
The irony in this is that eight of the ten Big 12 teams are likely to be bowl eligible this year in what should be a strong year for the Big 12. And, there are two teams talented enough to make a run to the Playoffs. Alas poor Big 12. We knew him well. There is a strong possibility that this is the last Big 12 preview the PiRate Ratings will release. Where the other eight teams play in 2022 is anybody’s guess.
Here is how the Big 12 Media voted their preseason poll in the league’s meetings.
Big 12 Conference Media Poll
Team
1st Pl
Overall
Oklahoma
35
386
Iowa St.
4
351
Texas
273
Oklahoma St.
266
TCU
255
West Virginia
185
Kansas St.
163
Baylor
124
Texas Tech
103
Kansas
39
Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings.
Big 12 Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Oklahoma
129.3
126.7
128.2
128.1
Iowa St.
125.3
123.5
125.6
124.8
T C U
116.6
115.1
116.3
116.0
Texas
116.7
114.5
115.6
115.6
Oklahoma St.
113.5
113.2
112.5
113.1
West Virginia
113.8
112.0
111.1
112.3
Baylor
104.9
104.8
103.8
104.5
Kansas St.
104.9
104.7
103.5
104.4
Texas Tech
102.0
102.8
100.8
101.9
Kansas
88.1
85.6
82.5
85.4
Big 12 Averages
111.5
110.3
110.0
110.6
Here is a capsule of each team.
Oklahoma lost consecutive games to Kansas State and Iowa State to start the 2020 season 1-2. The following week, the Sooners played Texas at the old Cotton Bowl Stadium and the Sooners blew two leads, allowing Texas to send the game to overtime. Through three overtimes, the score was still tied, and Oklahoma was fortunate to make it that far. The Sooners were oh so close to starting a season 1-3 for the first time this century. OU won the game in the fourth overtime when Texas couldn’t score. At 2-2, the Sooners reeled off seven wins in a row, including an impressive Big 12 Championship revenge victory over Iowa State. Then, in the Cotton Bowl, the Sooners made mincemeat out of Florida, winning by five touchdowns.
Coach Lincoln Riley welcomes back one of the top quarterbacks in the country, and he’s just a sophomore. Spencer Rattler played like a seasoned pro the last seven games of the season, while leading the Sooners to an average of 45 points per game in the winning streak. Spencer could easily top 350 passing yards this year, while guiding the Sooners to possibly 50 points per game in the nation’s most prolific offense.
It’s not just Rattler that has us so high on this team. There are no weaknesses in any unit on offense or defense. In addition to Rattler, the Sooners boast one of the top receiving corps in college football. Marvin Mims led the team with 37 receptions and 610 yards, and he wasn’t even a full-time starter last year. Theo Wease also had 37 receptions for 530 yards. Tight end Jeremiah Hall took advantage of his 18 receptions, scoring five touchdowns. Fellow tight end Austin Stogner was a big play receiver with 24 catches and 422 yards.
When Oklahoma runs the ball, they won’t be confused for the great Sooner teams of the past both before and after the Wishbone years, but they have two potential NFL talents on the roster. Kennedy Brooks didn’t play last year as a Covid opt-out, but he rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2019. Former Tennessee Vol Eric Gray averaged over five yards per attempt and was the only weapon the Vols had in many games.
The offensive line was going to have some questions, but the Transfer Portal was very beneficial here, as another former Tennessee player, Wanya Morris fills a key spot at left tackle.
The Sooner defense was a bit too generous in the first four games, but in the final seven, they gave up 17 points per game. This looks to be the best defense since coordinator Alex Grinch left Ohio State for Norman.
With the return from injury of linebacker Caleb Kelly, the Sooners have six experienced starters returning to the 3-3-5 defense’s front six, and since four linebackers have starting experience and are star players, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that OU uses some 3-4 or maybe even 2-4 alignments. Tackle Isaiah Thomas has All-American potential. He led the Sooners with 8 ½ sacks last year. Outside linebacker Nik Bonnito was an All-American last year, and he should repeat again this year if he stays healthy. Expect this front six to hold enemy runners to less than four yards per carry and get considerable pressure on quarterbacks.
The five-man secondary returns two starters, but the other three expected starters saw action and started some games at the end of the year when the OU defense improved. All five were in the secondary during the Cotton Bowl. The safety tandem of Pat Fields and DeLarrin Turner-Yell are among the best duos in the country.
Oklahoma’s schedule could help the Sooners make a run at the top spot in the polls this year. After a road game against Tulane and a home game against Western Carolina, game three will be a memorable one. Oklahoma hosts Nebraska in the 50th anniversary of the Greatest College Football Game Ever Played. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, #1 Nebraska came from behind in the last few minutes of the game to edge #2 Oklahma 35-31. Expect the Sooners to threaten 31 points before halftime. The key to an undefeated season is beating Iowa State twice. They face the Cyclones in Norman in November, and they will likely have to play them again two weeks later.
Iowa State returns more starters than Oklahoma, and the Cyclones won the Big 12 regular season title last year, but they begin the 2021 looking up at the Sooners by a couple points. Sixth year coach Matt Campbell has been loyal to the Cyclones and had turned down other big job opportunities to stay in Ames, but unless Iowa State quickly finds a new conference not named the American Athletic, this might be his swansong at Iowa State.
Brock Purdy must be considered a Heisman Trophy candidate. The senior quarterback completed roughly ⅔ of this passes last year, while averaging 11.3 yards per completion. If he can cut down on an interception percentage of 2.5% to less than 2%, then he could has a chance to sneak in and grab that hardware if he can shine in a victory over Oklahoma.’
The Cyclone receiving corps returns a stable of thoroughbreds led by Xavier Hutchinson, who led the team with 64 receptions for 771 yards last year. Tight end Charlie Kolar may be the leading contender for the Mackey Award this year after being a finalist last year. He caught 44 passes for 591 yards and seven touchdowns. Backup Chase Allen would start for most every other team in the nation.
Iowa State has a second Heisman Trophy candidate on their roster in running back Breece Hall. Hall rushed for 1,572 yards and 21 touchdowns in 12 games last year, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
The Cyclone offensive line returns all five starters, but the best player in this unit didn’t play last year. Guard Trevor Downing may be the best offensive lineman in the Big 12. Center Colin Newell rates as the top at that position in this league.
Iowa State averaged 33 points per game and narrowly missed topping 200 yards rushing and passing last year. It would not be shocking if they topped 35 points per game and did rush and pass for more than 200 yards per game this year.
The secondary is the strength of the ISU defense. Four of five starters return this year, and the second five are talented enough to start for many teams. Cornerbacks Anthony Johnson, Jr. and Tayvonn Kyle are the best outside defenders in the league.
The Cyclones return all three linebackers including strongside linebacker Mike Rose, who led the Big 12 in tackles and interceptions. Up front, ISU returns three players with extensive starting experience. End Will McDonald, IV, led the league in QB sacks with 10 ½.
A road game against West Virginia is the most likely speed bump that could prevent Iowa State from playing Oklahoma in November with both teams still unbeaten and ranked in the top 10. Last year, we believed that Oklahoma was a field goal better overall, and Iowa State has ever so slightly closed the gap to start the season.
After the top two, the next four teams are closely rated, and it would not be a surprise to see the four finish in a large tie for third place.
TCU looked strong down the stretch last year, when they won five of their final six games to finish 6-4. The Horned Frogs gave up 10.5 fewer points per game in that stretch than they did in the opening four games.
The offense was a bit more consistent last year, and with quarterback Max Duggan coming back this year, TCU should be just as consistent in 2021. Duggan led the Horned Frogs in rushing with 526 yards and 10 touchdowns. He passed for 1,795 yards with a 10/4 TD/INT ratio.
TCU is a run-first team, and this year’s squad will be a running back by committee with four capable rushers. The Frogs will likely wear teams down by pounding all four into the line during games.
When defenses begin to creep up to stop the run, Duggan can make them pay by locating his speedy receivers for big gains. Sophomore Quentin Johnston caught 22 passes for an eye-popping 22.1 yards per catch, the highest average per catch of any freshman in conference history. Taye Barber led TCU last year with 31 grabs.
The offensive line welcomes back three starters, but they pick up a fourth starter via the Transfer Portal in former Memphis tackle Obinna Eze. This blocking brigade should allow TCU to approach 35 points and 425 yards per game this year.
The defense should be strong up front, but it will be questionable in the back. In this league a questionable pass defense isn’t good for a team’s health.
The runaway best part of this defense are the bookends. Ends Ochaun Mathis and Khari Coleman make up the best terminal tandem in the league. Tackles Terrell Cooper and Corey Bethley are experienced seniors with several career starts. Bethley could have been selected in the NFL Draft, but he chose to return.
The brightest spots in the back seven of the 4-2-5 defense are cornerbacks Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and linebacker Dee Winters. If former Memphis safety T.J. Carter can prove to be a legitimate Big 12 safety, the Frogs’ liability might turn to a strength.
TCU should win all three non-conference games, so going 5-4 in the league would mean an 8-4 record and a chance to finish ranked with a win in a bowl game.
The Eyes of Texas are upon new coach Steve Sarkisian. The one-time Washington and USC head coach has most recently been Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator. Texas was not a bad team last year under Tom Herman. The Longhorns went 7-3 with an Alamo Bowl win over Colorado. All three losses were by a field goal or less or in overtime. Eight more points could have made UT 10-0.
The Longhorns averaged almost 43 points per game last year under Herman. In the past, Sarkisian had issues taking over high-powered offenses. For instance, when he became the offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons, replacing Kyle Shanahan, the Falcons went from NFC Champions with a potent offense to pedestrian for the next two seasons, bringing his dismissal. USC’s offense did not shine after he came there from Washington. Can Sarkisian buck history? With a looming move to the SEC, this will be one of the most interesting stories to follow.
Sark has to break in a new quarterback, as Sam Ehlinger may open the season as the Indianapolis Colts’ starting quarterback. As of the time of this writing, there was still a two-man fight for the starting quarterback job, but Hudson Card sure looks like the guy that will open the season against Louisiana. Card saw minimal action as a freshman and remains a freshman this year. The Longhorns are going to take a step back in their passing game.
The Longhorn running game is still in excellent shape. Returning starter Bijan Robinson and backup Roschon Johnson might be dual 1000-yard rushers in an old-fashioned veer type of offense, but the two should combine for 1,500 yards this year.
With an inexperienced quarterback, one would expect the passing yardage to drop off, and with the loss of a key receiver from last year, the Longhorns really need an infusion of talent here. There is good news and bad news on that front. Troy Omeire looked to be a potential star as a redshirt freshman last August, but he tore an ACL and missed the season. He was expected to return this year and be one of two main targets for whoever won the quarterback battle. But, Omeire has been having difficulties trusting his repaired knee and is not on pace to start when Texas plays Louisiana on September 4.
The offensive line is talented and experienced, but they have to learn a new system, moving away from the Urban Meyer type of spread that Herman used. Expect a few mistakes early in the season.
The Longhorn defense has a bit of rebuilding to do, having to replace its one star from last year. Joseph Ossai was a one-man offense disrupter both against the run and the pass. Two Transfer Portal linebackers will try to replace this irreplaceable star.
Texas should be a bit stronger on the back line than on the front line. However, the overall defense is not going to be strong enough to challenge Oklahoma and Iowa State for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. 5-4 in the league looks more like the norm for this club, and they better watch out and be ready to play against Louisiana in game number one. A lot of sharps in Nevada and the Caribbean have investments on the underdog Ragin’ Cajuns.
Oklahoma State beat Iowa State in late October to take the Big 12 lead, but an overtime loss to Texas a week later set up a make or break game against rival Oklahoma. The Sooners pasted the Cowboys by four touchdowns, to knock OSU out of the Championship Game picture. A Cheez-it Bowl victory over Miami ended a somewhat disappointing 8-3 season,
Coach Mike Gundy enters year 17 in Stillwater missing too many stars from last year’s team to compete for the conference championship, but they have enough talent returning to get into the mix of multiple 5-4 teams.
Spencer Sanders has been labeled with that “P” word since he matriculated to Stillwater. Sanders has yet to live up to that potential. Last year, he threw eight interceptions in just 247 attempts for a rather high 3.2% interception rate, really high for the Air Raid offense. Sanders lost his three leading receivers from last year, but former Washington State Air Raid receiver Tay Martin caught 112 passes in his sophomore and junior seasons, and he should team with Brennan Presley and Braydon Johnson after contributing in a minor way last year.
The running game loses its star running back, but Chuba Hubbard had an off year in his final season, and his production can be replaced.
The offensive line lost its best player in 1st team All Big 12 tackle Teven Jenkins, but numerous injuries led to many players seeing action last year, and there are a couple of transfers that should give the Cowboys a deep but not outstanding interior line.
The defense figures to be a little stronger this year, and OSU should finish near the top in scoring defense this year if their offense doesn’t experience too many short drives.
While none of the three units on the defense are full of stars, they are all solid and have some depth to back up the starters. The Cowboys use a 4-2-5 defense, and they have talent in all three units. Up front, Tyler Lacy and Trace Ford make competent ends. Malcolm Rodriguez led the Cowboys in tackles last year. Safeties Kolby Harvell-Peel and Tre Sterling both picked off two passes.
The non-conference schedule is a little tricky after the first game against Missouri State. Tulsa gave Oklahoma State an incredible defensive battle last year, and the Golden Hurricane might be better this year. Boise State has a new coach, but they are a major player on their blue field. If the Cowboys emerge at 3-0, they could easily be 5-0 when they play at Texas.
In Neal Brown’s two years at West Virginia, the Mountaineers have gone 5-7 and 6-4, not figuring in the Big 12 race either year. WVU led the Big 12 in both scoring and total defense last year, but the offense stalled too many times, scoring 59 points in their four losses. 2021 should be a season where the Mountaineers fare a little better offensively and a little weaker defensively.
Leading the offense is fifth year senior Jarret Doege. Doege was off and on last year, finishing with 14 touchdown passes and 2,587 passing yards. Almost every receiver from last year returns this year, led by last year’s top pass-catcher Winston Wright, Jr. (47 receptions, 553 yards).
WVU returns 1,000-yard rusher Leddie Brown. Brown averaged more than 100 rushing yards per game in 2020, scoring nine touchdowns. He caught 31 passes coming out of the backfield.
As good as these numbers are in the skill positions, the offensive line is the best part of the offense. Five players with extensive starting experience, two from different schools, return this year, and West Virginia should see a bump in rushing average and a drop in QB sacks.
The defense gave up less than 160 passing yards and less than 300 total yards per game last year. Gone are many of the key players that made those numbers happen. West Virginia has to rebuild in all three units, losing star nose tackle Darius Stills, linebacker Tony Fields, II, and safety Tykee Smith, who transferred to Georgia.
Defensive line will be the strength of this year’s defense. Dante Stills could have been drafted this year, but he chose to come back. End Jeffery Pooler, Jr., returns to anchor one side of the line.
Three starters return to the defensive backfield, led by free safety Alonzo Addae. Former Arizona Wildcat Scottie Young will start at strong safety after coming off the bench in his first year in Morgantown.
West Virginia has two tough non-conference games in backyard rival Maryland and neighbor Virginia Tech, and if the Mountaineers lose both games, they will be in jeopardy of suffering through another season where six or seven wins is the ceiling.
Baylor went from near the top to near the bottom of the Big 12 with Coach Dave Aranda replacing one of the top college football coaches of this era in Matt Rhule. The Bears suffered through a 2-7 season that saw BU being outscored by an average of 31-19 by teams that didn’t have the name “Kansas.”
The 2021 BU edition suffered heavy losses on the offensive side of the ball, including the transfer of quarterback Charlie Brewer. The Bears go from experienced senior to untested and less talented replacements. As of this writing, Aranda and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes have yet to determine the starter for the opener against Texas State. Junior Gerry Bohanon emerged from Spring Practice as the apparent starter, but as of the most recent scrimmage, Bohanon was the best runner of the trio competing for the job, but he was not the most accurate. Sophomore Jacob Zeno and redshirt freshman Blake Shapen are in the mix.
There is no real competition at the receiver slots, where this will be the strength of the offense. Tyquan Thornton caught 65 passes and averaged 17.5 yards per catch his first two seasons in Waco. He was limited to five games last year and saw quite a drop in his production. If he can return to his 2019 form, Baylor will move the ball because defenses will be forced to play deeper coverages. That will help possession receivers R.J. Sneed and Gavin Holmes find the seams in the zones.
The running game was awful in 2020, averaging a meager 90 yards per game. Trestan Ebner averaged only 2.1 yards per carry, but he did catch 26 passes and averaged 11.5 yards per catch.
The offensive line returns just one starter, but a couple of Transfers from the Portal should make this a decent offensive line. Baylor finished 2020 as the 100th-ranked scoring team and 118th-ranked total yards team (out of 127). If the new QB can throw accurate passes, BU should score up to 28 points per game this year.
The defense wasn’t that bad considering the offense couldn’t sustain long, time-consuming drives. Baylor gave up less than 400 yards per game last year, and with nine returning starters, the Bears could move up into the top four defenses in the league and possibly top 30 in the nation.
The strength of this defense is at linebacker where four starters return (if you count Jalen Pitre as a linebacker.) He is the Star position, which is part safety and part strong-side linebacker. He led BU with 60 tackles and 13 TFL last year. Terrel Bernard led the team with 3 ½ QB sacks, and he lines up on the opposite side of Pitre. Opponents will have difficulty running stretch plays and passing into the flanks against this duo.
Up front in the multiple odd front defense, two of last year’s three starters return, but incoming Transfer Portal talent improves this unit. Expect former LSU nose tackle Siaki Ika will command double team blocks that free up the linebackers.
The secondary features two talented safeties in Christian Morgan and J.T. Woods, both of whom intercepted three passes last year. There’s depth here, even if the talent is basically better than average but not exceptional, and Baylor will face multiple offenses with exceptional receivers.
A non-conference schedule that basically guarantees three wins is the only saving grace for Baylor this year. The Bears are capable of going 3-6 in league play to earn bowl eligibility at 6-6.
Kansas State went 8-5 in Coach Chris Klieman’s first season in The Little Apple in 2019. Last year was a major disappointment, as the Wildcats fell to 4-6 that included a non-conference loss to a weak Arkansas State team. Included in that poor record last year was a season-ending five-game losing streak where KSU surrendered almost 41 points per game. On the other hand, this is a team that went to Norman and beat Oklahoma.
Which Kansas State team will take the field more times than not in 2021–the team that beat Oklahoma and TCU, or the team that lost five in a row? We believe it will be more of the same, but not in separate runs like last year. The Wildcats return an experienced offense to run Klieman’s more conservative philosophy that he used to go 69-6 at North Dakota State and win four FCS national championships in five years.
Skylar Thompson returns to run the offense as a sixth year senior after a shoulder injury sidelined him a week after he led the Wildcats to the win over Oklahoma. When healthy in 2019, Thompson completed 60% of his passes at better than 13 yards per completion with a 12/5 TD/INT ratio. He ran for 11 more touchdowns, so he knows how to put points on the board.
The Wildcats are a run-first team, and in Deuce Vaughn, they have a potential All-conference back. Vaughn actually led the team in pass receptions last year, but that had more to do with backup QB Will Howard having issues throwing the ball downfield. Vaughn should top 1,000 rushing yards if he stays healthy, and that will allow Thompson more open space to find receivers downfield.
The receiving corps is adequate but not spectacular. Malik Knowles and Chabastin Taylor are asked to run deeper routes than normal in order to open running lanes for the rushing attack, so they will not catch as many balls per target as other receivers. However, their yards per catch will be in the upper parts of the rankings. They both averaged more than 15 yards per catch last year, and those numbers could improve with Thompson healthy again.
The offensive line has experience and depth returning, and they should provide ample protection for Thompson.
This offense will best serve the team if the running game can eat the clock and help an inexperienced defense stay off the field. If the running game can average 175 or more yards per game, and the team scores 28 points per game, that will give the Wildcats a fighting chance to return to a bowl.
The defense is going to need all the help it can get. When Thompson was injured, and the offense did not thrive, the defense wore down and became too generous. The bad news is that six starters are gone from that squad, including a couple of stars.
The strength of a pedestrian defense is the secondary. The addition of cornerback Julius Brents from Iowa instantly improves the pass defense. However, a weaker pass rush is going to allow enemy quarterbacks more time to find receivers, and even the best pass defenders eventually allow even average receivers to get open if the QB has five seconds to pass.
The fact that strong safety Jaron McPherson led the team in tackles last year speaks volumes. Kansas State finished last in the league, behind Kansas, in pass defense, and this team loses the only serious sack monster, as end Wyatt Hubert may become a starting defensive lineman for the Cincinnati Bengals this year.
The key to Kansas State becoming bowl eligible is their opening game against a rebuilding Stanford Cardinal team in a game that will be played at Jerry World in Arlington, Texas. Win that game, and the Wildcats have a strong chance to win five more. If KSU loses that game, then the home game against Nevada becomes questionable two weeks later, and finding three conference wins might be asking too much.
Texas Tech fired Mike Leach in 2009 after The Pirate led the Red Raiders to bowl games in all 10 years he was in Lubbock. His 2008 team climbed as high as number two in the national polls. Since Leach was given his walking papers, three head coaches have combined to lead TTU to just four bowls in 11 seasons and zero winning seasons in Big 12 play. This is a school where Patrick Mahomes started for three years, and the school went 16-21 in that time! Can this program continue to matter in FBS football with the probably collapse of this league? Lubbock is an outpost in the vast staked plains of Texas. People I personally know, including former Coach Tommy Tuberville, felt as isolated there as if they were on the International Space Station. Others have referred to the highways coming into Lubbock from other locations as miles and miles of miles and miles.
Texas Tech was not originally part of the Southwest Conference. The Raiders were members of the Border Conference for many years, then an Independent when there were 30 of them, and then finally the eighth member of the SWC, joining in 1960. In truth, Tech should probably be aligned with New Mexico, New Mexico State, Utah State, UTEP, UTSA, and other schools in a Group of 5 new conference. Alas, they will move mountains trying to gain admission to the Pac-12, because in just one month, Coach Matt Wells has admitted that the realignment issue is a big liability in recruiting. Tech cannot afford to lose just one or two recruits, so this is a big issue, and this is the reason we are almost as low on this team as we are on schools like Vanderbilt in the SEC. They just can’t lose recruits and continue to compete at a Power 5 level.
As for this year’s team, Texas Tech brings in former quarterback Sonny Cumbie as offensive coordinator, and the Raiders should go more with an Air Raid look. The question is will incoming Oregon transfer Tyler Shough be competent enough to learn and run this system with limited experience in an Air Raid offense? Shough might be a better running QB than any recent TTU QBs, but the Air Raid is all about quick short passing to set up the “6” play, where four receivers run deep vertical routes.
Tech has one receiver capable of getting open deep in Erik Ezukanma. He will be able to open shorter passing lanes for a contingent of different receivers, but none of them will strike fear in Big 12 defenses.
Tech may be strongest at running back, and it wouldn’t surprise us here on the PiRate ship if one or more become slot receivers. SaRoderick Thompson might be a 1,000-yard rusher in a standard one-back pro offense, but catching 30-40 passes may be more important this year.
The key to making the Air Raid offense work is an offensive line that can take very wide splits and still protect the quarterback. Leach’s offensive lines have taken as much as 4-foot splits. This forces defensive ends and outside linebackers to take an extra two steps to get to the passing pocket, and that fraction of a second extra gives the QB just enough time to read the coverage and make his throw. Tech has a decent but not great offensive line this year, led by the best player on the offense in center Dawson Deaton.
The Air Raid offense forces defenses to stay on the field a bit more, and the Texas Tech defense doesn’t need the extra burden after finishing a disappointing ninth in the league in scoring and total defense last year. The 2021 defense will be considerably stronger up front but somewhat weaker in the backfield. Wells has dipped into the Transfer Portal to make over this side of the ball, and even though the talent might have improved somewhat, having all these new players learn and master the defensive system is not always a fluid adventure. It can lead to occasional breakdowns, the type that lead to touchdowns for the other team.
The defensive front seven returns all its 2020 starters, led by tackle Tony Bradford. He prevented blockers from getting to inside linebackers Krishon Merriweather and Colin Schooler, who combined to make 138 tackles, 11 ½ for loss, and 5 ½ sacks.
The Red Raiders begin the season facing Houston at NRG Stadium, and the Cougars figure to be a slight favorite in that game. Any slight chance TTU has of sneaking its way to a 6-6 season requires an upset victory in this game. Tech will still need to pull off a conference upset to get to three league wins, and we don’t see that happening this year. Four wins may be the expectation, and for Tech fans’ sakes, we hope your school can find the proper new league for the oasis known as Lubbock.
Now, for the weakest Power 5 team in the nation. Can things actually get worse in 2021 for a Kansas team that went 0-9 last year, finished last in the nation in scoring defense and almost finished last in the nation in scoring offense? The school didn’t hire its new head football coach until the end of April, and Lance Leipold didn’t arrive in Lawrence until the first of May, after the end of Spring Practice.
It took Leipold four years to develop the Buffalo Bulls into the top program in the MAC East Division, and he took over a program that had won eight games just two years before. He inherits a Kansas team that looks more like the 1962 New York Mets of football, maybe even the 1899 Cleveland Spiders!
Can an offense that averaged a mere 15.8 points per game last year and barely 250 total yards per game not be improved in 2021? KU will likely see these numbers increase this year, but it will happen because the Jayhawks will play three non-conference games. They still should lose at least two of these three, and if South Dakota can bring an effort similar to the one they brought to Kansas State three years ago, even that game is not a gimme for the Jayhawks.
The offense turns the keys over to former North Texas quarterback Jason Bean. Bean couldn’t hold onto the starting job in Dentonm as Austin Aune eventually emerged as the starter. Bean figures to start ahead of the returning quarterbacks on the roster from last year, and that speaks volumes about the lack of talent on this team.
After quarterback, it only gets weaker, as Kansas is so far behind the rest of the Big 12 in every unit on the team, both offensive and defensive. Leipold and staff had to hustle to move players around and change positions during the Summer. The only bright spot on this team is kick returner Kenny Logan, who took a kick 100 yards to the house last year against Iowa State in a 52-22 loss. Logan will unfortunately get the most opportunities to return kicks of any player in Power 5 football.
Uncertainty as to the future of this school in conference alignment will lead to additional recruiting difficulties, and Leipold cannot be expected to start building this program back to respectability until KU has a known future. Having one of the best basketball programs in America can only help so far, because realignment is 99% about football. Having the worst Power 5 program isn’t something that attracts the Big Ten, but bringing in the Kansas City TV market and with KU being a member of the Association of American Universities will go a long way in helping the Jayhawks seek entry into the Big Ten. If Rock Chalk cannot gain admission, then it won’t only hurt the football program; it is going to harm the basketball program as well.
The PiRate Ratings are not designed to look forward for an entire season and predict won-loss records. Their sell by date is only until the next weekend of games conclude. Nevertheless, we issue predicted won-loss records just for fun.
The Big 12 has been teetering on the brink of unplanned obsolescence for the last couple of years. As the only Power 5 Conference without a postseason Conference Championship Game, the league powers have been a little paranoid that other predators from the West Coast, the Deep South, and the Upper Midwest, might pillage them and leave them without a job. The Pac-12 is anxious to change its name to the Pac-16. The SEC and Big Ten realize that it is easier to work with 16 rather than 14 teams. The ACC has 15 in all sports except football, but even in football, Notre Dame plays basically five conference games per year.
What does a league do with just 10 members? It cannot play a conference title game until it has 12. Obviously, the league must expand by two to six teams, or else, their members will be searching for greener futures and high payouts.
In the meantime, the Big 12 continues to provide some of the most exciting football on the planet. The quasi-renegade league provides the alternative to the SEC’s and Big Ten’s blood and guts play, just like the old American Football League of the 1960’s sold itself as the more entertaining league to the NFL. The AFL had all the razzle dazzle stars like Joe Namath, Len Dawson, Daryle Lamonica, John Hadl, Cookie Gilchrist, Lance Alworth, and others, while the NFL was all about bruising fullbacks running between the tackles and halfbacks running power sweeps behind pulling guards.
The Big 12 is the pass-happy league with wide open offenses, blitzing and gambling defenses, and no game secure even if a team has scored over 50 points. Who can forget the day in 2014 when undefeated TCU led undefeated Baylor by 18 points in the fourth quarter and lost 61-58? You could have watched Alabama beat Arkansas 14-13 that day. Michigan beat Penn State 18-13.
2016 promises to be an interesting season in the Southwest. Oklahoma represented the league in the NCAA Playoffs, after two 11-1 teams failed to earn a spot the year before. The Sooners quickly bowed out in a semifinal loss to Clemson, but OU is loaded this season and in contention for the top overall spot.
The Sooners will not receive a free pass to the playoffs this year. Their schedule is tricky with a pre-conference matchups with Houston at NRG Stadium to start the season and Ohio State on September 17. Then following a bye week, OU has a road game with TCU, and the annual Red River Shootout with Texas the following Saturday. If Coach Bob Stoops can guide his squad to a 5-0 start, a 7-0 finish is very likely.
A group of four teams figure to be the main challengers to the Sooners, or in a probable case, a quartet fighting for a Sugar Bowl berth as the league runnerup. Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor figure to be on most pundits’ lists, but the PiRates believe that Coach Charlie Strong will bring the Texas Longhorns back to near the top of the standings this year and even give Oklahoma a run for its money. If he doesn’t, the UT alumni may be advertising for a new coach in 2017.
For the Longhorns, the season kicks off with a Sunday tilt at home against Notre Dame, and a win in the opener could give the burnt orange a shot in the arm. A road game against Oklahoma State precedes the fight with the Sooners at the Texas State Fair the following week, and pulling off back-to-back wins over their rivals to the north is most unlikely. Thus, we believe that Texas can win 10 games and vie for the Sugar Bowl bid, but they cannot win 11 or 12 and contend for a playoff spot.
TCU begins the season ranked ahead of Texas in our ratings and actually within shouting distance of Oklahoma, but the Horned Frogs have to rebuild on offense due to heavy losses, including their star quarterback, running back, and wideout. The defense is still solid, but they may be on the field for too many plays in crucial games. Road games at Baylor and Texas could eliminate any gain made by possibly upsetting Oklahoma ar Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Oklahoma State is flying a little under the radar to begin the season. The Cowboys were 10-0 last year, before losing to Baylor, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss to end the year at 10-3. Their offense could top 42 points per game this year with experience and depth returning, while the defense should be on par with last year’s defense. OSU wins games by outscoring opponents, so scores like 45-31 are frequent happenings, and this team can win double digit games again while giving up 30+ points per game.
Baylor faced a minor rebuilding project heading into this season, but off the field events have wounded the Bears enough to where second half of the season depth issues could cause a minor fold. We do not expect BU to contend for the Big 12 crown, and we would not be shocked if the losses began to mount beginning with a trip to Austin on October 29.
Kansas State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech represent the next wave. In most years, KSU plays one of the softest non-conference slates, guaranteeing themselves of three wins before taking the field, and thus needing just a 3-6 conference mark to earn a bowl bid. However, the Wildcats will begin the season 0-1 with a Friday night game at the Farm against Stanford. The likely 3-6 conference record will leave the guys from the Little Apple home for the holidays.
Texas Tech faces a similar situation. The Red Raiders are looking at 3-6 or even 2-7 in league play, as they must play Kansas State and Iowa State on the road. Playing at Arizona State in September could prevent TTU from going bowling as well.
West Virginia may actually be a tad weaker than the previous two teams, but the Mountaineers have the favorable schedule that could give them the three wins they need to pair with a 3-6 conference mark and finish 6-6.
Iowa State is not ready to compete for bowl eligibility this year, but the Cyclones are moving upwards slowly. They could even sneak into a tie for 7th if the ball bounces their way, but they should win more than one conference game this year.
Kansas still has basketball season to await. The Jayhawks are likely destined for yet another last place finish, but this year KU should at least win a game after finishing 0-12 in 2015. The season opener with Rhode Island is the only for sure winnable game, but the Jayhawks might be confident enough to pull off the mild upset over Ohio the following week. It looks like another 0-9 league mark for the Jayhawks, but then by the time they host Texas on November 19, all will be okay with the Rock Chalkers at Allen Fieldhouse.
Here is how the Big 12 Media predicted the 2016 order of finish.
2016 Big 12 Conference Media Poll
#
Team
1st Pl.
Total
1
Oklahoma
24
258
2
TCU
2
222
3
Oklahoma St.
0
202
4
Baylor
0
156
5
Texas
0
151
6
Texas Tech
0
141
7
West Virginia
0
126
8
Kansas St.
0
88
9
Iowa St.
0
59
10
Kansas
0
27
Here are the initial 2016 PiRate Ratings for the league.
Big 12 Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Oklahoma
125.6
122.1
125.6
124.4
Oklahoma St.
117.5
118.8
117.5
117.9
Texas
114.4
118.0
114.4
115.6
TCU
113.3
115.6
113.2
114.0
Baylor
109.4
109.7
110.6
109.9
West Virginia
106.6
106.1
106.0
106.2
Kansas St.
103.1
107.5
102.5
104.4
Texas Tech
104.9
102.3
102.7
103.3
Iowa St.
99.8
99.2
98.7
99.2
Kansas
88.3
96.1
85.9
90.1
The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point. Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.
Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then. So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls, and notice that this league will not provide the needed number to fill all of its obligations, thus benefiting other leagues like the Big Ten and Pac-12, who both may have extra bowl eligible teams this year.
Big 12 Conference Projected Standings
Team
Conference
Overall
Bowl
Oklahoma
9-0
12-0
Playoffs/Fiesta
Oklahoma St.
7-2
10-2
Alamo
Texas
7-2
10-2
Sugar
TCU
6-3
9-3
Russell Athletic
Baylor
6-3
9-3
Texas
West Virginia
3-6
6-6
Liberty
Kansas St.
3-6
5-7
Texas Tech
2-7
4-8
Iowa St.
2-7
4-8
Kansas
0-9
2-10
Coming Monday, August 22: The Pac-12 Conference with wide open races in both divisions. Is there a surprise team ready to emerge as the new league beast, or is it more of the same old fare?
Comments Off on 2016 Big 12 Conference Football Preview
The Big 12 Conference almost ceased to exist this summer. It looked like eight of the 12 teams would leave and end up in the Big Ten, Pac-10, and even SEC. After the dust cleared, the conference was left with 10 teams. Colorado was the only member of six possible teams to accept the Pac-10 bid. Nebraska, tired of seeing Texas control the league, gladly accepted a bid to the Big Ten. The rest of the league will hold a grudge in this final season before divorce becomes official. Speaking of officials, this league will need close scrutiny this year. After Nebraska felt they had been robbed in the Big 12 Championship Game, can they expect any better treatment this year?
Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games. They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games. We do not use these ratings to make our selections. They are only a starting point. The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.
Predictions
Pos
North
B12
W-L
1
Nebraska
8-0
12-1
2
Missouri
4-4
8-4
3
Colorado
4-4
6-6
4
Kansas
3-5
5-7
5
Kansas State
2-6
6-6
6
Iowa State
1-7
3-9
Pos
South
B12
W-L
1
Oklahoma
7-1
12-1
2
Texas
6-2
10-2
3
Texas Tech
5-3
8-4
4
Texas A&M
4-4
7-5
5
Baylor
3-5
6-6
6
Oklahoma State
1-7
5-7
Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma over Nebraska
BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma
BCS Bowl: Nebraska
Cotton Bowl: Texas
Alamo Bowl: Missouri
Insight Bowl: Texas Tech
Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M
Texas Bowl: Baylor
Pinstripe Bowl: Colorado
Dallas Football Classic: Kansas State
Team By Team Breakdown
North Division
Team
Colorado Buffaloes
Head Coach
Dan Hawkins
Colors
Black and Gold
City
Boulder, CO
2009 Record
Conference
2-6
Overall
3-9
PiRate Rating
105.5
National Rating
45
2010 Prediction
Conference
4-4
Overall
6-6
Strengths: Offensive Line, Receivers, Defensive Line
Weaknesses: Quarterback, Running Back, Special Teams
Expected Offense: 24-27 points / 320-340 yards
Expected Defense: 24-27 points / 340-360 yards
Schedule: Out of Conference: Colorado State (n), @ California, Hawaii, and Georgia
Interdivision: Baylor, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma
Outlook: The Buffaloes need to settle on one quarterback, and Tyler Hansen is that man. Hansen should get more time to pass and pass for 2,500 or more yards, and we don’t expect CU QBs to be sacked 44 times again. Rodney Stewart could top 1,000 yards rushing. Transfers from Michigan, USC and UCLA should bolster the receiving corps. The offensive line returns the entire two-deep from last year, including nine players with starting experience.
A better pass rush should help the defense improve a little, but we don’t expect the Buffs to challenge for a top four position in the league. Coach Dan Hawkins must win this year, or he will be out of a job. We don’t know if 6-6 and a minor bowl will be enough, but that is what we think will happen.
Team
Iowa State Cyclones
Head Coach
Paul Rhoads
Colors
Cardinal and Gold
City
Ames, IA
2009 Record
Conference
3-5
Overall
7-6
PiRate Rating
94.4
National Rating
77
2010 Prediction
Conference
1-7
Overall
3-9
Strengths: Quarterback, Offensive Line, Special Teams
Weaknesses: Receiver, Defensive Line, Linebacker
Expected Offense: 22-26 point / 375-400 yards
Expected Defense: 24-28 points / 425-450 yards
Schedule: Non-conference: Northern Illinois, @ Iowa, Northern Iowa, and Utah
Interdivision: Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas
Outlook: Coach Paul Rhoads placed the Cyclones in a bowl in his first year in Ames, but ISU will revert back to their losing ways this year. The offense will be somewhat improved, but it was ranked last in the Big 12 last year. Quarterback Austin Arnaud will hand the ball to Alexander Robinson a lot this year, and if Robinson stays healthy, he could top 1,250 yards on the ground. Arnaud can run and pass with equal competency, so he should take some of the pressure off Robinson. Other than Jake Williams, ISU will have to rely on several average receivers. None of his teammates will allow Williams to avoid double coverage. The offensive line features tackle Kelechi Osemele, a 2nd Team All-Big 12 selection last year.
Seven key defensive performers graduated, so the Cyclones will take a large step backwards. The front seven will be much weaker, and opponents will run the ball for more yards and pass against less pass rushing pressure. Even with a decent secondary, the weaker pass rush will force them to cover a half-second to a second longer. Expect the pass yardage allowed to go up as well.
ISU should win two of their four non-conference games, but we can only see them winning one Big 12 contest. Call it a 3-9 rebuilding season.
Team
Kansas Jayhawks
Head Coach
Turner Gill
Colors
Dark Blue and Red
City
Lawrence, KS
2009 Record
Conference
1-7
Overall
5-7
PiRate Rating
102.0
National Rating
53
2010 Prediction
Conference
3-5
Overall
5-7
Strengths: Not many, but the Offensive Line and Defensive Line are small positives
Weaknesses: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Linebacker, Special Teams
Expected Offense: 22-26 points / 330-350 yards
Expected Defense: 24-28 points / 360-380 yards
Schedule: Out of conference: North Dakota State, Georgia Tech, @ Southern Mississippi, New Mexico State
Interdivision: @ Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Outlook: Turner Gill takes over after bringing Buffalo from also-ran to MAC Champion in short time. It will take time here for his system to bear fruit, but we are confident that he can recruit the Midwest and Southwest and return the Jayhawks to prominence.
KU will debut a new quarterback this year, as Kale Pick and Jordan Webb are locked in a competitive battle. Pick threw five passes, while Webb has yet to take a college snap. An interesting battle brews at running back, where last year’s leading rusher Toben Opurum and 6th year player and former linebacker Angus Quigley could form a decent tandem. KU lost two star receivers who combined for 186 receptions and more than 2,300 yards, so this will be a liability. Four starters return to the line, and they will undergo some restructuring to fit Gill’s change of offense.
In a pass happy league, a weak secondary is bad news. KU has some bad news. The returning defensive backs combined for just two interceptions. This side of the ball will have to learn a new system as well, and the defensive line is the only average unit using Big 12 standards. A real plus for the Jayhawks is not having to play Oklahoma or Texas from the South.
Gill has enough talent to repeat last year’s 5-7 record. The offense will not be as potent, but it will eat more clock. That will help the defense hold opponents under 30 points per game.
Team
Kansas State Wildcats
Head Coach
Bill Snyder
Colors
Royal Purple and White
City
Manhattan, KS
2009 Record
Conference
4-4
Overall
6-6
PiRate Rating
96.5
National Rating
67
2010 Prediction
Conference
2-6
Overall
6-6
Strengths: Running Back, Defensive Line
Weaknesses: Quarterback, Receiver
Expected Offense: 22-25 points / 325-350 yards
Expected Defense: 21-24 points / 325-350 yards
Schedule: Non-conference: UCLA, Missouri State, Central Florida, @ North Texas
Interdivision: @ Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas
Outlook: Kansas State’s offense will move on the legs of running back Daniel Thomas. He raced for 1,265 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, and he could top 1,400 this season. An experienced offensive line returns, and they are better run blockers than pass blockers.
Quarterback Carson Coffman started four games last year, but he was unspectacular. With a below average receiving corps, expect KSU to struggle when they get behind in games.
On defense, the line is talented, and there is depth. They should clear out enough space for the new linebackers to have decent first years as starters. However, there is not a great pass rusher on the roster.
Look for Kansas State to sweep their four non-conference opponents, which means they only will need two league wins to earn a bowl bid. That’s what they will get.
Team
Missouri Tigers
Head Coach
Gary Pinkel
Colors
Black and Gold
City
Columbia, MO
2009 Record
Conference
4-4
Overall
8-5
PiRate Rating
111.6
National Rating
32
2010 Prediction
Conference
4-4
Overall
8-4
Strengths: Quarterback, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back
Weaknesses: Receiver (not that much of a weakness)
Expected Offense: 31-35 points / 425-450 yards
Expected Defense: 20-24 points / 350-375 yards
Schedule: Non-conference: Illinois (n), McNeese State, San Diego State, Miami (O)
Outlook: Blaine Gabbert returns at QB where he passed for almost 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns to just nine picks. Not the runner Chase Daniel was, he can still pull the ball down and cross the sticks for a first down. Running back Derrick Washington saw his production drop from over 1,000 yards in 2008 to 865 last year; with an improved offensive line, look for that number to climb back over 1,000. The only question on offense is at receiver. Mizzou lost two great pass catchers that combined for 159 receptions and 20 touchdowns. To make matters worse, Jerrell Jackson, who was expected to be the leading receiver this year, will miss the first three games with a fractured wrist. Don’t expect him to return and catch half a dozen passes in September.
The Tigers gave up a couple of big plays at the wrong time last year, and it cost them two conference wins and the North Division title. Expect improved play on this side of the ball as all three units will be improved thanks to the return of eight of the top nine tacklers. Missouri only picked off eight passes last year. The entire secondary returns, and the Tigers will intercept double digit passes this season. The pass rush can only get better with the return of end Aldon Smith. He recorded 11 ½ sacks last year. Led by Andrew Gachkar and Will Ebner, the linebacking unit will be tough against the run.
The pre-conference schedule should allow Missouri to start 4-0. They could be 6-0 by the time they face Oklahoma on homecoming. We are being as pessimistic as we can when we call for the Tigers to go 4-4 in league play. They could be 6-2 if they stay healthy and prevent the big plays on defense.
Team
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Head Coach
Bo Pelini
Colors
Scarlet and Cream
City
Lincoln, NE
2009 Record
Conference
6-2
Overall
10-4
PiRate Rating
120.7
National Rating
13
2010 Prediction
Conference
8-0
Overall
12-1
Strengths: Running Back, Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back, Special Teams
Weaknesses: Quarterback
Expected Offense: 28-32 points / 350-375 yards
Expected Defense: 14-18 points / 275-300 yards
Schedule: Non-conference: Western Kentucky, Idaho, @ Washington, South Dakota State
Outlook: If Nebraska had just an average quarterback, they would be our pick for one of the two BCS Championship Game teams. Zac Lee, Cody Green, and Taylor Martinez are still locked in a battle to determine the starter, but we would be surprised if anybody other than Lee line up under center for the first game. Roy Helu will have a tough time carrying the offense if no passing game develops. Helu rushed for 1,147 yards and 10 scores last year. The ‘Huskers return some talented receivers, and they should help the quarterbacks improve their passing numbers. Niles Paul might be a 1,000 yard receiver at eight other Big 12 schools, but he’ll have to settle for 40-50 receptions and 800-900 yards here. The offensive line took a major hit when center Mike Smith broke his leg, but Coach Bo Pelini will field another excellent interior.
Nebraska’s defense will take a step back, because it is impossible to replace Ndamukong Suh, Phillip Dillard, Larry Asante, Matt O’Hanlon, and Barry Turner all in one season. A weaker defense means that NU will give up more than 14 points per game. The defensive line still has star talent with end Pierre Allen and tackle Jared Crick. Crick made 15 total tackles for loss including 9 ½ sacks. Allen added five sacks and 12 total tackles for loss. They also combined for nine batted away passes. There’s royalty in the secondary with the return of Prince Amukamara. He led the ‘Huskers with 16 passes defended (5 Int/11 PBU).
Alex Henery is one of the best dual punter/kickers in college football, and Niles Paul is a gem as a kick and punt returner.
We believe that Nebraska has a decent shot at running the table in the regular season. The October 16 game at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln with Texas is going to be unbelievable, and the Longhorns are going to be treated like Sarah Palin with a chainsaw outside Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. We think the Cornhuskers will enter the Big 12 Championship game ranked number one and suffer defeat at the hand of their oldest rival. Still, they should get a bid to a BCS bowl.
South Division
Team
Baylor Bears
Head Coach
Art Briles
Colors
Green and Gold
City
Waco, TX
2009 Record
Conference
1-7
Overall
4-8
PiRate Rating
103.7
National Rating
48
2010 Prediction
Conference
3-5
Overall
6-6
Strengths: Quarterback, Defensive Back (small strength)
Weaknesses: Running Back (other than QB), Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker
Expected Offense: 26-30 points / 375-400 yards
Expected Defense: 26-30 points / 375-400 yards
Schedule: Non-conference: Sam Houston, Buffalo, @ TCU, @ Rice
Interdivision: Kansas, @ Colorado, Kansas State
Outlook: It starts and ends with quarterback Robert Griffin. In just over two games, Griffin had passed for 481 yards with four TDs and no interceptions before he went down with a season-ending ACL injury. If he stays healthy for 12 games, he should pass for close to 3,500 yards and lead Baylor to its first bowl game in 16 years. The running backs suffered with the loss of Griffin, because defenses had to respect Griffin’s ability to take off and run. Expect improvement in the rushing attack, but don’t expect the Bears to top 150 yards per game on the ground Jay Finley did rush for 1,072 yards in 2008, but he will not get enough touches to repeat that. Griffin has a couple of good target to pass to in Kendall Wright and Lanear Sampson, but another receiver needs to emerge. Three starters return to the offensive line, and Griffin will make their job much easier.
The defense lost six starters, including four of their top five tacklers. A weaker than Big 12 average defensive line will cause BU some trouble as opponents run the ball to eat the clock and keep Griffin off the field. The Bear pass rush won’t scare many enemy quarterbacks either. BU has one talented linebacker in Antonio Johnson. Johnson’s 77 tackles and two sacks are the most of any returnee. The defensive backfield would have been a bigger strength had Ahmad Dixon actually showed up. He was the highest recruit the Bears have had in years and would have started immediately at free safety. Baylor still has some talent here with cornerbacks Clifton Odom and Chance Casey returning.
Baylor has three winnable non-conference games and three or four more in the Big 12. We believe they will go 3-5 in the Big 12 and 6-6 overall, which will earn a bid to one of the lower Lone Star state bowl games.
Team
Oklahoma Sooners
Head Coach
Bob Stoops
Colors
Cream and Crimson
City
Norman, OK
2009 Record
Conference
5-3
Overall
8-5
PiRate Rating
125.6
National Rating
3
2010 Prediction
Conference
7-1
Overall
12-1
Strengths: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back, Special Teams
Weaknesses: None really. If you had to get picky, maybe in the seams of the middle zones on pass defense.
Expected Offense: 35-40 points / 450-475 yards
Expected Defense: 18-22 points / 300-325 yards
Schedule: Non-conference: Utah State, Florida State, Air Force, @ Cincinnati
Outlook: Can a team that lost the first pick in the draft, three other 1st Round picks, three other draft picks, and three more players that are still in NFL training camps be better than they were a year ago? It sounds crazy, but OU could not only be better, they could be the best! Losing Sam Bradford will hardly be noticed, as he only threw 69 passes last year. Landry Jones returns at quarterback after passing for just under 3,200 yards and 26 touchdowns. He needs to cut down on his 14 interceptions. At running back, DeMarco Murray and Jermie Calhoun will team for 1,500 yards, and the Sooners will be a much more balanced team this year. Murray will not be asked to carry the ball 20 times any more, and he should stay healthy. The most lethal unit on this team is pass catchers. Ryan Broyles and Dejuan Miller could both earn all-conference recognition; throw in super freshman Kenny Stills with tight ends Trent Ratteree and James Hanna, and you have one of the nation’s top receiving corps. The offensive line is the weakest unit of the attack side, and yet it is still one of the four best in the Big 12.
On Defense, the Sooners lost five star players. Don’t pity them; the players they have coming back are just as good or will soon be. In the trenches, end Jeremy Beal is the best at his position in the Big 12. He dumped quarterbacks 11 times last year and stopped runners for losses eight times. He can drop back in pass coverage on zone blitzes and play pass defense like a linebacker. Speaking of linebacker, Travis Lewis returns to the second line of defense after earning 1st Team All-Big 12 accolades. He will have two new partners, and both are stars of the future. The Sooners have two starters returning to the secondary, led by safety Quinton Carter, who grabbed four enemy quarterback passes while batting away five others.
Oklahoma has the talent to run the table and be 13-0 following a win in the Big 12 Championship Game. If so, we know where they will be playing in January. We are going to go out on a small limb and pick one Big 12 team to knock them off in an upset, just like Colorado did to them in 2007. Call it a 12-1 regular season plus Fiesta Bowl bid.
Team
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Head Coach
Mike Gundy
Colors
Orange and Black
City
Stillwater, OK
2009 Record
Conference
6-2
Overall
9-4
PiRate Rating
99.8
National Rating
59
2010 Prediction
Conference
1-7
Overall
5-7
Strengths: Running Back, Linebacker
Weaknesses: Quarterback, Offensive Line
Expected Offense: 20-24 points / 325-350 yards
Expected Defense: 23-27 points / 350-375 yards
Schedule: Non-conference: Washington State, Troy, Tulsa, @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Interdivision: Nebraska, @ Kansas State, @ Texas
Outlook: It will be a long season in Stillwater, as the Cowboys must rebuild on both sides of the ball. OSU returns just four offensive and three defensive starters to a team that many felt underachieved last year. The rabid fans, in their desire not to play second fiddle in the Sooner State, may chase Coach Mike Gundy out of town if the ‘Pokes fail to make it back to a bowl.
Gundy brought Dana Holgorsen in from Houston to take over as offensive coordinator. Holgorsen will institute the spread passing game used by the Cougars (which gained 512 yards and 45 points against OSU last year). His first order of business was to pick a quarterback, and Brandon Weeden will not be confused for Casey Keenum. Weeden spent five years pitching in the Minor Leagues and has seen a lot more action on the mound than under center. Having running back Kendall Hunter 100% healthy once again could be the saving grace for this side of the ball. When healthy in 2008, he rushed for 1,555 yards and earned All-American honors. He played in just three games last year. The loss of Dez Bryant to the NFL Cowboys won’t hurt too much, since Bryant hardly played last year. Holgorsen will use as many as 10 receivers in his pass-happy offense. Hubert Anyiam should be the star of the group. The offensive line will be a major liability, as just two starters return.
Oklahoma State allowed just 96 yards rushing last year, but with five (and maybe six pending the outcome of an arrest) of the front seven gone, that number could increase by over 50% this season. Ugo Chinasa spearheads a respectable pass rush. In the secondary, amazingly Andrew McGee returns to play after suffering a broken neck last season. He will team with safety Markelle Martin to provide experience in the back line of defense.
Okie State has a good shot at winning all non-conference games, so they will only need two Big 12 wins to become bowl eligible. We actually believe they will have a difficult time winning any league game and will call for the Cowboys to go 1-7 in the conference.
Team
Texas Longhorns
Head Coach
Mack Brown
Colors
Burnt Orange and White
City
Austin, TX
2009 Record
Conference
8-0
Overall
13-1
PiRate Rating
119.3
National Rating
16
2010 Prediction
Conference
6-2
Overall
10-2
Strengths: Receiver, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back, Special Teams
Interdivision: @ Nebraska, Iowa State, @ Kansas State
Outlook: When any other team loses as much talent as the Longhorns, you can expect a long season. In Texas, they just insert the next star at each position. The ‘Horns lost their all-time leading passer, a receiver that caught 116 passes for 1,485 yards, and four starting offensive linemen, and yet UT will still have a lethal offense. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert got his Baptism under fire last year in the National Championship Game when Colt McCoy was knocked out of the game in the first half. Gilbert brought the Longhorns back in the second half and gave them a chance. If he could do that against Alabama, what do you think he will do against Iowa State? Expect more contribution from the running game with Tre’ Newton and Fozzy Whittaker carrying the load this year. Texas has a stable of fine receivers as well, led by James Kirkendoll, Malcolm Williams, and John Chiles. Chiles is an ex-quarterback, and he could be used in some trick plays.
Coach Mack Brown can sleep easier at night with Will Muschamp at his side. The head coach-in-waiting has made the Longhorn defense the envy of the nation. His 2010 team will do just fine once he finds a way to plug some holes in the defensive line. Sam Acho and Kheeston Randall form the conference’s best pair of tackles. Acho made 10 sacks last year. Emmanuel Acho heads the second line of defense. He is a tough run-stopper. In the secondary, cornerbacks Curtis Brown and Aaron Williams form the best tandem of cover men in the league, but the loss of All-American Earl Thomas will make this a little weaker pass defense.
Texas must play at Nebraska, and if the officiating is honest, we do not believe the Longhorns can win this grudge match-to-be. The Longhorns have a 50-50 shot with Oklahoma, and they have about a 20% chance of losing to Texas Tech, Texas A&M, or Kansas State. We’ll call it a 6-2 league mark and 10-2 overall.
Weaknesses: Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Special Teams
Expected Offense: 34-38 points / 475-500 yards
Expected Defense: 26-30 points / 375-400 yards
Schedule: Non-conference: Stephen F Austin, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, Arkansas (n)
Interdivision: Missouri, @ Kansas, Nebraska
Outlook: The Aggies have one of the best offenses in a BCS conference. With Quarterback Jerrod Johnson running the team, if the offensive line can give him adequate protection, A&M could top 40 points per game. Johnson passes for 3,579 yards and 30 touchdowns last year, while running for 506 and eight more scores. Johnson’s ability to take off with the ball really helped the running game to click. The Aggies return two running backs capable of topping 1,000 yards. Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray combined for 1,601 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. At receiver, Johnson has his big three pass catchers returning this year. Uzoma Nwachukwu, Ryan Tannehill, and Jeff Fuller teamed for 127 receptions (each had at least 40) and 17 touchdowns. Tannehill is a converted QB, so he could be used on a trick play as a passer.
The defense switches to a 3-4 alignment this year, and there isn’t a star in the trenches. Last year’s star defensive lineman has been moved to rush linebacker. Von Miller led the league with 17 sacks, and Coach Mike Sherman hopes he can continue to get into the backfield as a linebacker. In the secondary, last year’s leading tackler, Trent Hunter, returns after making 95 tackles.
With a powerful offense and an improving defense, there is only one way to go for the Aggies. Expect Texas A&M to be in almost every game this year and win at least half of their Big 12 contests. Toss in at least three non-conference wins, and the Aggies will have a winning season.
Team
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Head Coach
Tommy Tuberville
Colors
Red and Black
City
Lubbock, TX
2009 Record
Conference
5-3
Overall
9-4
PiRate Rating
112.6
National Rating
30
2010 Prediction
Conference
5-3
Overall
8-4
Strengths: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Defensive Back, Special Teams
Weaknesses: Offensive Line
Expected Offense: 26-30 points / 350-375 yards
Expected Defense: 21-24 points / 325-350 yards
Schedule: Non-conference: S M U, @ New Mexico, Weber State, Houston
Outlook: What a change of philosophies! The only thing we can compare it to is the change that the University of Cincinnati’s basketball team made when Oscar Robertson graduated in 1960 after taking the Bearcats to three consecutive top five finishes and back-to-back Final Fours. Coach George Smith left, and UC replaced him with Ed Jucker, who instituted a power offense and pressure defense that produced scores like 70-55 rather than 105-90.
Enter Coach Tommy Tuberville to replace Mike Leach. Say goodbye to 50 passes a game and hello to 20 runs between the tackles. Say goodbye to 150 scrimmage plays per game. Tuberville will not change Tech into a 75% running team, but he will run the ball hard when it is 3rd and two, or 2nd and five.
The Red Raiders return enough quality pieces to continue their winning ways. Quarterback Taylor Potts has apparently beaten out Steven Sheffield for the starting position. The two combined for 4,659 passing yards and 36 touchdowns last year. Whoever starts at quarterback will have nearly every receiver from last season back for more. Detron Lewis and Alexander Torres lead the way. Running backs should get more carries in the new system, and Baron Batch has the ability to top 1,000 yards. He scored 14 touchdowns on just 168 carries last year, and he caught 57 passes out of the backfield. The offensive line is the only worry. Tuberville likes quicker, less bulky blockers, but he inherits a couple of 350-pound stationary blockers.
Like many other teams, Tech is switching to the 3-4 defense. With just one returning defensive line starter, that is a good thing. Nose tackle Coby Whitlock has the skills to cause havoc in the trenches. Linebackers Brian Duncan and Bront Bird are strong run-stoppers and very good pass defenders. The one weakness with the front seven is in pass rushing. There doesn’t look like there is a competent sack machine in the lot. That could hurt the secondary, which is the strength of this side. Free Safety Cody Davis was a 1st Team Freshman All-American last year.
Tuberville is used to winning, and he should guide the Red Raiders back to a bowl. They could pick up an upset along the way and play spoiler. By the way, that Cincinnati basketball team fared okay with the change to Ed Jucker. The Bearcats won the next two National Championships and came within a minute of winning a third in a row.
Coming Tomorrow: The Big Ten started all the conference shuffling and only added one team—to this point. Find out if there will be any shuffling at the top of the conference standings and whether Rich Rodriguez can keep his job.
Welcome to season number three of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation. For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers. Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically. At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected. The 12 teams are then seeded by BCS ranking with no maximum number of teams per conference.
Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2009 playoffs.
Top Six Conference Champions
ACC–Georgia Tech 11-2 #9 Seed
Big East–Cincinnati 12-0 #3 Seed
Big Ten–Ohio State 10-2 #8 Seed
Big 12—Texas 13-0 #2 Seed
Pac-10—Oregon 10-2 #7 Seed
SEC—Alabama 13-0 #1 Seed
Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS
MWC—T C U 12-0 #4 Seed
WAC—Boise State 13-0 #6 Seed
Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field
Florida 12-1 #5 Seed
Iowa 10-2 #10 Seed
Virginia Tech 10-2 #11 Seed
L S U 9-3 #12 Seed
The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds. The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.
Opening Round
Outback Bowl #5 Florida vs. #12 L S U Dec 17
Alamo Bowl #6 Boise State vs. #11 Virginia Tech Dec 18
Holiday Bowl #7 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa Dec 19
Gator Bowl #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Georgia Tech Dec 19
Quarterfinal Round
Cotton Bowl #4 T C U vs. Outback Bowl Winner Jan 1
Capital One Bowl #3 Cincinnati vs. Alamo Bowl Winner Jan 1
Rose Bowl #2 Texas vs. Holiday Bowl Winner Jan 1
Sugar Bowl #1 Alabama vs. Gator Bowl Winner Jan 1
Semifinal Round
Fiesta Bowl Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner Jan 9
Orange Bowl Rose Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner Jan 9
National Championship Game
Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner Jan 23
1. This system awards the four best teams with byes.
2. This system not only keeps the bowls alive, but it gives them more importance and prestige, as 11 bowls decide the title.
3. Instead of undefeated Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State getting left out of the national championship picture, number 13 Penn State is the first team left out. This is much more fair, as this system will always allow a 12-0 team to have a chance regardless of whether it is Alabama or Boise State.
4. The remaining bowls would not have to settle for 6-6 teams. The rules could demand at least 7 wins as a minimum.
5. Three of the four rounds would occur during winter break for the schools, thus quashing the myth that players would miss too much time.
Check back on December 20 for simulated results of the first round games.
Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings
The Army-Navy game must still be played, but that game doesn’t warrant an extra week’s worth of ratings. Neither team can break the top 25 even if they win 222-0. The game still has bowl implications. If Army wins, the Cadets will advance to the Eagle Bank Bowl to face Temple. If Navy wins, then UCLA takes Army’s place in Washington, DC.
NCAA Top 25 For December 7, 2009
Rank
Team
PiRate
Won
Lost
1
Alabama
133.0
13
0
2
Texas
131.4
12
0
3
Florida
128.2
12
1
4
T C U
125.4
12
0
5
Oklahoma
124.0
7
5
6
Boise State
120.9
12
0
7
Virginia Tech
120.5
9
3
8
Oregon
119.8
10
2
9
Georgia Tech
119.4
11
2
10
Nebraska
118.8
9
4
11
Texas Tech
117.9
8
4
12
Penn State
117.7
10
2
13
Ohio State
117.6
10
2
14
Miami (Fla)
117.4
9
3
15
Stanford
116.9
8
4
16
Arkansas
115.5
7
5
17
Southern Cal
115.1
8
4
18
Cincinnati
114.9
12
0
19
Iowa
114.8
10
2
20
Arizona
114.0
8
4
21
Oklahoma State
113.9
9
3
22
Pittsburgh
113.7
9
3
23
Ole Miss
113.2
8
4
24
L S U
112.5
9
3
25
Oregon State
112.0
8
4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Clemson
6-2
8-5
111.7
Florida State
4-4
6-6
107.6
Boston College
5-3
8-4
107.1
Wake Forest
3-5
5-7
104.8
North Carolina State
2-6
5-7
102.7
Maryland
1-7
2-10
93.0
Coastal Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Virginia Tech
6-2
9-3
120.5
Georgia Tech
7-1
11-2
119.4
Miami-FL
5-3
9-3
117.4
North Carolina
4-4
8-4
110.9
Duke
3-5
5-7
98.4
Virginia
2-6
3-9
94.8
Big East Conference
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Cincinnati
8-0
12-0
114.9
Pittsburgh
5-2
9-3
113.7
West Virginia
5-2
9-3
106.0
Connecticut
3-4
7-5
105.8
Rutgers
3-4
8-4
102.1
South Florida
3-4
7-5
101.8
Syracuse
1-6
4-8
93.9
Louisville
1-6
4-8
90.5
Big Ten
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Penn State
6-2
10-2
117.7
Ohio State
7-1
10-2
117.6
Iowa
6-2
10-2
114.8
Wisconsin
5-3
9-3
108.5
Michigan State
4-4
6-6
101.5
Northwestern
5-3
8-4
99.3
Purdue
4-4
5-7
99.0
Minnesota
3-5
6-6
97.9
Michigan
1-7
5-7
96.6
Illinois
2-6
3-9
96.0
Indiana
1-7
4-8
90.9
Big 12
North Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Nebraska
6-2
9-4
118.9
Missouri
4-4
8-4
104.8
Kansas
1-7
5-7
103.9
Kansas State
4-4
6-6
99.4
Colorado
2-6
3-9
97.4
Iowa State
3-5
6-6
94.9
South Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Texas
8-0
13-0
131.4
Oklahoma
5-3
7-5
124.0
Texas Tech
5-3
8-4
117.9
Oklahoma State
6-2
9-3
113.9
Texas A&M
3-5
6-6
103.4
Baylor
1-7
4-8
96.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
East Carolina
7-1
9-4
105.2
Central Florida
6-2
8-4
104.1
Southern Mississippi
5-3
7-5
100.9
Marshall
4-4
6-6
92.4
U A B
4-4
5-7
91.0
Memphis
1-7
2-10
83.4
West Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Houston
6-2
10-3
107.4
Tulsa
3-5
5-7
91.6
U T E P
3-5
4-8
90.8
S M U
6-2
7-5
88.4
Rice
2-6
2-10
76.4
Tulane
1-7
3-9
71.1
Independents
Team
Overall
Rating
Notre Dame
6-6
105.9
Navy
8-4
100.6
Army
5-6
82.0
Mid American Conference
East Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Temple
7-1
9-3
100.7
Ohio U
7-1
9-4
94.9
Buffalo
3-5
5-7
92.4
Bowling Green
6-2
7-5
91.4
Kent St.
4-4
6-6
84.7
Akron
2-6
3-9
81.5
Miami (O)
1-7
1-11
76.3
West Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Central Michigan
8-0
11-2
109.0
Northern Illinois
5-3
7-5
95.1
Toledo
3-5
5-7
87.1
Western Michigan
4-4
5-7
86.2
Ball State
2-6
2-10
83.0
Eastern Michigan
0-8
0-12
74.2
Mountain West Conference
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
T C U
8-0
12-0
125.4
B Y U
7-1
10-2
111.1
Utah
6-2
9-3
107.7
Air Force
5-3
7-5
100.7
Wyoming
4-4
6-6
87.9
UNLV
3-5
5-7
86.8
Colo. State
0-8
3-9
86.1
S. D. State
3-5
5-7
85.2
New Mexico
1-7
1-11
77.8
Pac-10 Conference
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Oregon
8-1
10-2
119.8
Stanford
6-3
8-4
116.9
Southern Cal
5-4
8-4
115.1
Arizona
6-3
8-4
114.0
Oregon St.
6-3
8-4
112.0
California
5-4
8-4
108.6
U C L A
3-6
6-6
105.3
Arizona St.
2-7
4-8
102.1
Washington
4-5
5-7
103.6
Wash. St.
0-9
1-11
70.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Florida
8-0
12-1
128.2
Tennessee
4-4
7-5
110.9
South Carolina
3-5
7-5
110.9
Georgia
4-4
7-5
110.4
Kentucky
3-5
7-5
104.4
Vanderbilt
0-8
2-10
93.1
West Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Alabama
8-0
13-0
133.0
Arkansas
3-5
7-5
115.5
Ole Miss
4-4
8-4
113.2
L S U
5-3
9-3
112.5
Auburn
3-5
7-5
107.7
Mississippi State
3-5
5-7
104.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Troy
8-0
9-3
99.0
Middle Tennessee
7-1
9-3
96.2
Louisiana-Monroe
5-3
6-6
86.8
Arkansas State
3-5
4-8
85.8
Florida Atlantic
5-3
5-7
84.6
U. of Louisiana
4-4
6-6
83.7
Florida International
3-5
3-9
80.3
North Texas
1-7
2-10
76.4
Western Kentucky
0-8
0-12
73.7
Western Athletic Conference
Team
Conf.
Overall
Rating
Boise State
8-0
13-0
120.9
Nevada
7-1
8-4
108.6
Louisiana Tech
3-5
4-8
99.8
Fresno State
6-2
7-4
99.0
Utah State
3-5
4-8
91.9
Idaho
4-4
7-5
89.6
Hawaii
3-5
6-6
87.7
San Jose State
1-7
2-10
78.5
New Mexico State
1-7
3-10
71.0
Bowl Lineups
Day
Date
Time EST
Bowl
Team
Team
Sat
19-Dec
4:30 PM
New Mexico
Wyoming
vs.
Fresno State
Sat
19-Dec
8:00 PM
St. Petersburg
Rutgers
vs.
Central Florida
Sun
20-Dec
8:15 PM
New Orleans
Middle Tenn
vs.
Southern Miss
Tue
22-Dec
8:00 PM
Las Vegas
B Y U
vs.
Oregon State
Wed
23-Dec
8:00 PM
Poinsettia
Utah
vs.
California
Thu
24-Dec
8:00 PM
Hawaii
Nevada
vs.
S M U
Sat
26-Dec
1:00 PM
Little Caesar’s Pizza
Marshall
vs.
Ohio U
Sat
26-Dec
4:30 PM
Meineke Car Care
North Carolina
vs.
Pittsburgh
Sat
26-Dec
8:00 PM
Emerald
Southern Cal
vs.
Boston College
Sun
27-Dec
8:15 PM
Music City
Kentucky
vs.
Clemson
Mon
28-Dec
5:00 PM
Independence
Georgia
vs.
Texas A&M
Tue
29-Dec
4:30 PM
Eagle Bank
Temple
vs.
Army/UCLA
Tue
29-Dec
8:00 PM
Champs Sports
Miami-Fl
vs.
Wisconsin
Wed
30-Dec
4:30 PM
Humanitarian
Idaho
vs.
Bowling Green
Wed
30-Dec
8:00 PM
Holiday
Nebraska
vs.
Arizona
Thu
31-Dec
11:00 AM
Armed Forces
Houston
vs.
Air Force
Thu
31-Dec
2:00 PM
Sun
Stanford
vs.
Oklahoma
Thu
31-Dec
3:30 PM
Texas
Missouri
vs.
Navy
Thu
31-Dec
6:00 PM
Insight.com
Iowa State
vs.
Minnesota
Thu
31-Dec
7:30 PM
Chick-fil-A
Tennessee
vs.
Va. Tech
Fri
1-Jan
11:00 AM
Outback
Auburn
vs.
Northwestern
Fri
1-Jan
1:00 PM
Capital One
Penn State
vs.
L S U
Fri
1-Jan
1:00 PM
Gator
West Va.
vs.
Florida State
Fri
1-Jan
5:10 PM
Rose
Oregon
vs.
Ohio State
Fri
1-Jan
8:00 PM
Sugar
Florida
vs.
Cincinnati
Sat
2-Jan
12:00 PM
International
South Florida
vs.
Northern Illinois
Sat
2-Jan
2:00 PM
Cotton
Oklahoma St.
vs.
Ole Miss
Sat
2-Jan
2:00 PM
Papajohns.com
Connecticut
vs.
South Carolina
Sat
2-Jan
5:30 PM
Liberty
Arkansas
vs.
East Carolina
Sat
2-Jan
9:00 PM
Alamo
Texas Tech
vs.
Michigan St.
Mon
4-Jan
8:00 PM
Fiesta
Boise State
vs.
T C U
Tue
5-Jan
8:00 PM
Orange
Georgia Tech
vs.
Iowa
Wed
6-Jan
8:00 PM
G M A C
Troy
vs.
Central Mich.
Thu
7-Jan
8:00 PM
Nat’l Championship
Alabama
vs.
Texas
Coming This Week–What you can do to help bring about a college football playoff
Every year, there is one week of the college football season where the schedule presents more than a dozen games that are not just interesting, they are foretelling. While the season’s final two weeks usually mean everything, usually a mid-season week turns out to be the week where teams either put up or shut up. We here at the PiRate Ratings believe this is that week. Let’s look at the 25 games where we see a major interest in watching or listening to this week.
Thursday Night
7:30 PM: Ole Miss at South Carolina—The Rebels play their first important game of the year after clobbering two patsies. The Gamecocks aren’t a Top 25 team, but in Columbia, they are tough to beat. It won’t hurt that USC had already played a Thursday night game. This should be a high scoring game, weather permitting (chance of thunderstorms), and it could be another one of those recent SEC “Arena Football League Games.”
The PiRate computer says Ole Miss should win by 13.3, while the old Mean rating picks the Rebels by 5. Vegas has Ole Miss by 3 as of midday Monday. PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
Saturday Games (all times EDT)
12 Noon: Indiana at Michigan—This Hoosier team is 3-0, but make no comparison between it and the cardiac kids of 1967, or even the Bill Mallory teams of 1987 and 1988. We’ll soon find out if it is another version of the 2007 team. Indiana struggled to beat Eastern Kentucky and Western Michigan. Michigan could be on the verge of challenging Penn State, Iowa, and Ohio State for conference supremacy. They proved themselves valid with a win over Notre Dame, and now they get a chance to move upward. The PiRate computer picks Michigan by 20.3, and the Mean picks the Wolverines by 14. PiRate Viewer Rating: B
12 Noon: Michigan State at Wisconsin—In August, it looked like this game could be a battle of unbeaten teams, but the Spartans have slipped up with a 1-2 start. This game becomes a must-win game for MSU, because they face Michigan next week. Coach Mark Dantonio’s team could be looking at 1-5 or even 1-6 if they slip up this week. As for the Badgers, this is their sixth consecutive year starting 3-0. Except for 2006, the season hasn’t finished up like it started. This could be the pivotal game in the UW coaching career for Bret Bielema. A win here sets them up for a huge rivalry match at Minnesota next week where a win would send the Badgers to Ohio State with a chance to move into Rose Bowl contention. Wisconsin avoids Penn State and gets Iowa and Michigan at home this year. A loss could start the ball rolling toward 7-5 or even 6-6. PiRate Rating: Wisconsin by 0.6/Mean: Wisconsin by 4/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
12 Noon: South Florida at Florida State—We’ve been looking at this matchup for quite some time. This should be a hard-fought thriller. USF has wanted a shot at any of the three big teams in the Sunshine State, and the economy has made this one possible. Florida State’s opening game loss to Miami could be explained. The letdown against Jacksonville State wasn’t totally surprising. The 26-point win at BYU was a shock. That makes Miami look all the more talented. USF has yet to play quality opposition, and this game will give us a good gauge of the ACC against the Big East. If the Bulls can win this one, then they should be 5-0 when they host Cincinnati on Thursday, October 15. PiRate Rating: FSU by 14.3/Mean Rating: FSU by 9/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
12 Noon: Fresno State at Cincinnati—Fresno State has played well in losses to Wisconsin and Boise State, but now they face the hardest game on their schedule. We don’t think the Bulldogs have much chance of adding another big upset to their 21st Century resume, but we do see this as a gauge game. Cincinnati has looked like a Top 10 team and maybe contender for the National Championship Game through three games. If Cinti can do to Fresno State what they did to Rutgers, they will move into the Top 12. If they cannot win by more than three touchdowns, then it makes Boise State look all the more better. PiRate Rating: Cinti by 21.7/Mean Rating: Cinti by 20/PiRate Viewer Rating: A
12 Noon: Southern Mississippi at Kansas—The Golden Eagles aren’t ranked, but Coach Larry Fedora has a strong team in Hattiesburg. Southern Miss is 3-0 after their great comeback win over Virginia. Tough road games remain against Houston, Marshall, and East Carolina, so they probably have little or no chance of running the table and sneaking into the BCS Bowl picture. Kansas will vie with Missouri and Nebraska for the Big 12 North title this year. They just missed the last two years, and a big win in this game could set the table for finally breaking through. An impressive win here, followed by wins over Iowa State and Colorado would have the Jayhawks at 6-0 when Oklahoma invades Lawrence on October 24. KU QB Todd Reesing may be the best passer without much chance of getting drafted. At 5-11, he’s considered too small for the NFL. PiRate Rating: Kansas by 17.1/Mean Rating: 14/PiRate Viewer Rating: A
12 Noon: North Carolina at Georgia Tech—This game is interesting because the Tar Heels catch Georgia Tech coming off a disastrous road loss to Miami. If Coach Butch Davis has UNC ready to challenge on the national scene, then the Heels need to do something close to what Miami did to the Yellow Jackets. They will stack the box to take away the option and force Josh Nesbitt to beat them through the air. It can be done, but it won’t be easy. A Tech win means the winner of the Virginia Tech-Miami game will be in the driver’s seat in the Coastal Division. PiRate Rating: Tech by 1.9/Mean Rating: Tech by 2/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
12:20 PM: L S U at Mississippi State—The AP and USA Today polls have LSU at number 7, but the Tigers are only the fourth highest-ranked SEC team. The win at Washington looks much more impressive now, but the lackluster win over Vanderbilt becomes a great comparison here. New Mississippi State Coach Dan Mullen saw his Bullies stop Vanderbilt in Nashville more impressively than LSU’s win over the Commodores in Tiger Stadium. This game hasn’t been close since Jackie Sherrill was coaching in Starkville. We think it might be this year, and with some lucky bounces, MSU could actually be there at the end. PiRate Rating: LSU by 15.9/Mean Rating: LSU by 12/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
1:00 PM: Marshall at Memphis—Here’s a game that should determine a bowl spot for the winner and doom the loser to the wrong side of .500 for the season. We think Marshall is primed to break out and save Coach Mark Snyder’s job this year. It’s been six years since the Thundering Herd last enjoyed a winning season, and we see at least seven wins in their near future. This is the C-USA opener for both teams. The schedule sets up well for Marshall if they can win this road game. They get East Carolina and Southern Miss. at home, and it wouldn’t be a big surprise to us if they could sneak into contention in the East. PiRate Rating: Marshall by 3.5/Mean Rating: Marshall by 2/PiRate Viewer Rating: B+
3:00 PM: UNLV at Wyoming—The Rebels have never been a Division 1-A (FBS) heavyweight. The 2000 season is the only good year they’ve had since moving up in classification 30 years ago. UNLV has a chance to get back to a bowl game this year, as long as quarterback Omar Clayton can remain healthy. On a gimpy knee, he guided the Rebels to a comeback victory over Hawaii. This becomes a must win game, and Wyoming is beatable. However, in Laramie, the Cowboys play tough. Tell Mack Brown that the Cowboys are an easy pushover. One slip up by UNLV this week makes their bowl hunt much more difficult. PiRate Rating: UNLV by 3.4/Mean Rating: UNLV by 5/PiRate Viewer Rating: B
3:30 PM: Arkansas at Alabama—Arkansas’s passing game will show everybody whether Alabama’s pass defense is national championship caliber. We don’t expect the Hogs to threaten an upset here, but this game should tell us whether Alabama is good enough to run the table and get to the SEC Championship Game for a second consecutive season. To this point in the season, Alabama has actually looked like the top team in the conference if not the nation. If the Tide is going to rise and become the South’s elite, they need to win this one by 20 or more points. PiRate Rating: Bama by 20.8/Mean Rating: Bama by 20/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
3:30 PM: California at Oregon—The Bears didn’t look like a championship caliber team in their win at Minnesota last week, while Oregon handled Utah. Cal has a home date with Southern Cal next week, but the players better concentrate on this game. Autzen Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play as a visitor, and Oregon isn’t Washington State. If Cal doesn’t come out ready for bear, the game with Southern Cal could be for 5th place in the standings. Jahvid Best needs to put two good halves together to move up on the Heisman Trophy list. PiRate Rating: Cal by 15.5/Mean Rating: Cal by 3/PiRate Viewer Rating: A+
3:30 PM: TCU at Clemson—With BYU and Utah losing to BCS conference teams this past weekend, the Horned Frogs may be the last legitimate shot for a Mountain West team to make it to a BCS Bowl Game. A win at Clemson could move TCU up into the top 12. We don’t think this Horned Frog team has the same tough defense as the recent teams in Ft. Worth. Clemson could easily be 3-0 today, but several questionable miscues cost them against Georgia Tech. After watching Miami destroy Tech, could the Yellow Jackets be overrated, and thus could Clemson not be as tough as they were supposed to be? This game may not supply the answers, but at least the winner will move up on the early bowl bubble. PiRate Rating: Clemson by 4.5/Mean Rating: Tossup/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
3:30 PM: Pittsburgh at North Carolina State—We here at the PiRate Ratings must remain impartial, as the only thing we truly root for is to be correct when we pick games. However, a couple of us would be happy if Dave Wannstedt had a BCS Bowl team. This may be Pittsburgh’s best team since 1982. Then, again, this could be another year like 2000. We should have a lot more evidence to make that call after this game. The Panthers have a one-two punch in quarterback Bill Stull and blazing fast running back Dion Lewis. North Carolina State is a little better than average but not the juggernaut they were seven years ago. It Pittsburgh can win in Raleigh, a double-digit win season is possible. PiRate Rating: Pitt by 2.0/Mean Rating: 6/PiRate Viewer Rating: B+
3:30 PM: Miami (Fla.) at Virginia Tech—This game is the one of the top three of the day. Two games into the season, this edition of Hurricanes is more like Camille than a tropical depression. Quarterback Jacory Harris may be the top passer in the ACC, and he may soon move high up on the list of NFL prospects in the next couple of years. He has a live and accurate arm, and his ability to pass on the run makes it difficult to sack him. Virginia Tech beat Nebraska last week in a close game, and the Hokies have won 38 of the last 43 games at Lane Stadium. If Miami can win this game, it will set up an even more interesting battle against Oklahoma next week. PiRate Rating: Virginia Tech by 6.7/Mean Rating: Virginia Tech by 4/PiRate Viewer Rating: A+
4:30 PM: Troy at Arkansas State—There are two key games in the Sunbelt Conference this week. Troy has been the Southern Cal of the SBC as of late, but the Trojans may not be quite as strong this year. Arkansas State had an extra week to prepare for this game and gets the Trojans in Jonesboro. These teams have split the last four games in this series, and the Red Wolves have what it takes to pull off the mild upset. An ASU win throws this race wide open. PiRate Rating: Troy by 2.4/Mean Rating: Troy by 1/PiRate Viewer Rating: B
6:00 PM: Florida at Kentucky—Two years ago, Kentucky upset number one LSU in Lexington. No, we don’t expect a repeat Saturday. The Wildcats start a grueling stretch of games that call for the Cats to play Alabama, at South Carolina, and at Auburn after this game, so UK could easily be 2-4 when Louisiana Monroe comes to town on October 24. Florida needs something to show the pollsters and computers that they deserve their lofty ranking. What should be an unbelievable year like Nebraska in 1995 could fail to materialize over the lack of all-conference receivers. Can Tim Tebow do it all on the offensive side? Think Larry Csonka with Bob Griese’s arm. You bet he can lead the Gators to Pasadena in January. PiRate Rating: Florida by 32.7/Mean Rating: Florida by 20/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
6:00 PM: Colorado State at BYU—Had the Cougars won last week in a grueling game, we were prepared to check this game as a possible letdown game and go with the Rams and the points. The Cougars exited Lavell Edwards Stadium thoroughly bewitched, bothered, and bewildered after losing to Florida State 54-28. Colorado State is 3-0 for the first time since 1994. That team went 10-1 in the regular season including a 28-21 win at BYU. We don’t expect a repeat in 2009, but a good showing could be the next step on the long climb back to the top in the MWC. The Rams should win eight games this year, but this won’t be one of them. PiRate Rating: BYU by 16.9/Mean Rating: BYU by 16/PiRate Viewer Rating: B+
7:00 PM: Arizona State at Georgia—Arizona State has never played in an SEC stadium (unless you count the 1951 visit to then Southwest Conference member Arkansas). In their only two games against SEC teams, the Sun Devils lost at home to Georgia last year and at home to LSU in 2005. ASU Coach Dennis Erickson knows a little about winning in the Deep South, having claimed a national title at Miami. He may have an average squad or some degree better, but wins against Idaho State and Louisiana Monroe has yet to prove anything. Georgia has already played three tough games, winning two SEC battles already. The Bulldog defense has yet to shut anybody down, but the offense has looked impressive in wins over South Carolina and Arkansas. This game will tell us a lot more about these two conferences as the season progresses, but it should be exciting itself. The weather could be a major factor as well. PiRate Rating: Georgia by 15.6/Mean Rating: Georgia by 7/PiRate Viewer Rating: A
7:00 PM: Army at Iowa State—Say What? This game is an important one? You betcha! It looks like the “trade” of Gene Chizik to Auburn for Paul Rhoads could prove to be a win-win decision. Iowa State could be looking at a possibility of sneaking into the eighth or ninth Big 12 bowl slot if they can win this game. Kansas State, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Baylor present winnable games if the Cyclones can stop the option game of the Cadets. On the other side of the equation, Army needs only to become bowl eligible to earn a guaranteed bowl bid. The Cadets are 2-1 and have winnable games left against Tulane, Vanderbilt, Temple, VMI, North Texas, and of course Navy. If Army wins this game, then we are confident in saying they will earn their first bowl trip since 1996. This game becomes, in essence, a bowl qualifier. That’s why it makes our list of the key 25 games this week. PiRate Rating: ISU by 12.4/Mean Rating: ISU by 10/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
7:00 PM: Middle Tennessee at North Texas—This is the second key Sunbelt Conference game this week. Middle Tennessee is the only SBC team to own four wins on the road against teams from BCS conferences, and the Blue Raiders made it number four last week by winning at Maryland (the second consecutive win over the Terps). North Texas showed signs of life this year in winning at Ball State and giving Ohio U a great battle, but quarterback Riley Dodge went down with an injury in the third quarter of that game. He missed last week’s blowout loss at Alabama, but he will return this week. He gives the Mean Green a chance in this game. PiRate Rating: Middle Tenn by 8.7/Mean Rating: Middle Tenn by 8/PiRate Viewer Rating: B
7:30 PM: Arizona at Oregon State—Both teams lost to undefeated, out-of-conference opponents last week, but the winner of this game could challenge in the Pac-10. We don’t think either can go on the road and beat both Cal and USC (both play these two powers on the road), but the winner of this game should stay in contention for one of the Pac-10’s top four bowls. PiRate Rating: Oregon State by 3.9/Mean Rating: Oregon State by 2/PiRate Viewer Rating: B
8:00 PM: Iowa at Penn State—Could this game be for the Big 10 Championship? It’s possible. Iowa stumbled out of the gate with Northern Iowa, but impressive wins over Iowa State and Arizona have the Hawkeyes 3-0 for the third time in four years. This is more than just any big game for Penn State; the Nittany Lions came into this game last year ranked number three at 9-0 and lost 24-23 in Iowa City. Penn State is undefeated again and ranked number five this time, but Joe Pa’s team has played three patsies. The winner of this game will be the leader in the clubhouse in the Big 10, but with Michigan, Ohio State, and even Wisconsin still around, they won’t have it wrapped up. PiRate Rating: Penn State by 5.6/Mean Rating: Penn State by 4/PiRate Viewer Rating: A+
9:00 PM: Washington at Stanford—Can you believe this game? Washington is the second ever team to crack the AP poll rankings in September after being winless the year before (Florida in 1980). Stanford is close to being 3-0, and the Cardinal have not been this good since 2001. Simply put, the winner of this contest is going to a bowl game this year. You’ll see two great quarterbacks in this one. Stanford’s Andrew Luck is just a freshman, but he’s averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt and completing 62.3% of his passes. Washington’s Jake Locker is leading the Pac-10 in total offense. PiRate Rating: Stanford by 9.5/Mean Rating: Stanford by 8/PiRate Viewer Rating: A
9:15 PM: Texas Tech at Houston—These teams haven’t played each other since the Southwest Conference days, and it should be one of the most exciting games of the season. You have two teams that average better than 400 passing yards per game. Houston’s Case Keenum has a shot at an NFL career in a couple of years, while Texas Tech’s Taylor Potts may be the best quarterback Coach Mike Leach has placed in his offense. PiRate Rating: Texas Tech by 6.2/Mean Rating: Texas Tech by 3/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-
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If Rip Van Winkle had awakened in a wheat field in Kansas from his 20-year slumber last year, he might have been able to understand all the big changes throughout the world in his score-long slumber. He might have been able to predict the coming of the Internet, the election of an African-American as President, even another Major League baseball team in Washington, D.C. occupying the cellar once again. However, he would have never recognized the Big 12 Conference state of affairs on the gridiron.
He might have been confused and believed that when he saw Oklahoma’s football passing stats and read 349 yards passing and 25 completions that he was looking at their yardage from the entire season. He’d see that Texas passed for 308 yards on 26 completions and say to himself that the Longhorns must really be running that wishbone to such perfection that they only needed to throw the ball 34 times all year. Then, when he discovered these yardages were the average per game for these two teams, he would have sworn he was no longer in Kansas. Then, just to fool around with him, you could tell him that Kansas State had been one of the most successful programs in college football while he slept, but they had fallen back on hard times and hired their 70-year old former head coach. It’s hard for us who have been awake the entire time to believe the complete 180 degree turnaround in this conference.
Here are the preseason PiRate ratings for the league. The ratings have been rounded to the nearest whole number even though we calculate them to two decimal places. Thus, when you see multiple teams with the same rating, they are not actually exactly even. To understand what the rating means, it is set so that 100 is average. Thus, a rating of 90 means the team is 10 points weaker than the average team in the FBS. The average of all 120 FBS teams should round to 100 if the math has been successfully calculated.
For those who have not followed the PiRate Ratings before and wonder about the home field advantage, we do not assign set in stone advantages. These are assigned on a game-by-game basis. For instance, if Nebraska hosts Oklahoma a week before taking on Kansas for what could be the North Division title, the Cornhuskers’ home field advantage might be as little as two points. However, if that same Nebraska team takes on Louisiana-Lafayette a week after scoring a huge upset over a top 10 team, they could enjoy a seven to 10 point home field advantage. The PiRates think it’s ridiculous to issue a blank home field advantage for all teams or even assign a range of set home field advantages.
Big 12 Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings
Prediction *
Team
PiRate
Big 12
Overall
North
Kansas
110
5-3
9-4
#
Nebraska
109
5-3
8-4
Missouri
105
2-6
4-8
Colorado
102
4-4
7-5
Kansas State
97
4-4
7-5
Iowa State
92
0-8
3-9
South
Oklahoma
136
8-0
13-0
#
Texas
135
7-1
11-1
Oklahoma State
118
6-2
10-2
Texas Tech
112
3-5
7-5
Baylor
109
4-4
6-6
Texas A&M
94
1-7
4-8
Big 12 North
Kansas: This actually came as a surprise to us at first. Three of us actually originally believed KU was headed to a lower division finish. The other two figured third or possibly second at best for the Jayhawks. When the PiRate formula kicked out the data showing Kansas a point better than Nebraska, we began to look more closely at their roster.
The Jayhawks have excellent offensive skill position players. Quarterback Todd Reesing returns for his final season after completing 66.5% of his passes for 3,888 yards and 32 touchdowns. In a league with four or maybe five sure future NFL draft picks, it’s debatable whether Reesing will hear his name called on the second day in 2010. At 5-11, the NFL evaluators discount all his other abilities. At the collegiate level, he’s as dangerous as any conference peer.
KU returns two receivers who topped 1,000 yards in receptions in 2008. Former quarterback Kerry Meier (97 receptions in ’08) may be the only player ever to pass for more than 1,000 yards in a season and catch more than 1,000 yards in passes. Dezmon Briscoe (92-1,407/15 TD) is the stud and future starter on an NFL roster.
The ‘Hawks use a running back by committee approach, and all the key components from last year return. Jake Sharp led the way with 860 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s a threat coming out of the bullpen on passing plays as well.
KU’s offense average 33.4 points and 432 total yards per game last year, and those numbers could be surpassed, but only if the offensive line comes through. For Kansas to realize their division winning potential, they have to open more running lanes. They won’t win the division with a rushing average under four yards per carry.
The Jayhawk defense must also improve for the record to improve by the two extra games needed to be moved from the loss column to the win column. It’s a mystery how the linebackers will perform. All three starters have graduated. Arist Wright has a little starting experience in three years in Lawrence, and he will anchor the unit from the middle.
The defensive line is in better shape with three starters returning from a year ago. Jake Laptad had seven sacks, and Caleb Blakesely and Jamal Greene took up a lot of space in the middle allowing the linebackers to be heroes.
The secondary is the strength of this side of the ball. Kansas used 5 defensive backs a lot last year, and all five return! Darrell Stuckey intercepted five passes and knocked down seven more. Justin Thornton knocked down 11 balls. There’s some fine depth behind this group.
Kansas gave up 28.8 points and 397 yards per game, with 274 of those yards coming through the air. If they can lower the pass defense to 250 yards and get 30 sacks, it just might be enough to get to the Big 12 Championship Game. If not, the Jayhawks are still going bowling for the fifth time in seven seasons. As an impartial quintet of observers, we must admit we tend to pull for Coach Mark Mangino and the terrific bunch of KU fans. Two of us have tailgated with them in the past and loved hearing stories about Pepper Rodgers, Bobby Douglass, and John Riggins.
Nebraska: Coach Bo Pelini turned the Cornhuskers around in one year, and now he’s ready to begin the transformation back to dominance in Lincoln. After a season in which the average score of their games was 35-29, expect to see a drop on both sides of the scoreboard. Yes, the black shirts are on their way back.
The defensive line will be a strength, second in the league to the Sooners. We expect the ‘Huskers to dump enemy quarterbacks more than 35 times and hold opposing running backs to about 3.2 yards per rush. Maybe the most exciting defensive tackle in years plays in this line. Ndamukong Suh became the first defensive lineman to lead the Cornhuskers in tackles since 1973. He made 76 tackles, 7 ½ sacks, 11 ½ additional tackles for loss, batted down three passes, and picked off two more. You want more? He hauled both of those interceptions back for touchdowns, and then he auditioned for “Dancing With The Network Stars” by doing his “Ducky Dance.” Who needs Emmitt Smith? Hey Ndamukong: Do you have Kelly Pickler for a Twitter follower?
The defensive backfield will be much improved this season. They gave up 233 yards per game and 57.7% completions, which in this league is well above average. Safeties Larry Asante and Matt O’Hanlon teamed for 119 tackles and nine deflected passes. Third safety Rickey Thenarse gives this unit great depth. The same can be said for nickel back Mathew May. He backs up two great cornerbacks in Prince Amukamara and Anthony West.
The one weak spot on the defense is the second line. The linebackers are not as talented as the other two units. This unit will have to grow up quickly, because NU must win by holding down the great offenses in the league.
The Cornhusker offense is going to be more like the dinosaur offenses of the old Big Eight. Nebraska will rely on a power running game to eat up the clock and wear down opposing defenses. Running back Roy Helu rushed for 803 yards last year, and he will need to add about 400 yards to that total this year. The depth behind him is questionable, and true freshman Rex Burkhead will be the principle backup. Helu rushed for more than 150 yards against Oklahoma, so he’s capable of challenging for the league rushing title.
Joe Ganz used up his eligibility last year, and NU will be breaking in a new set of quarterbacks. Projected starter Zac Lee has one completed pass for five yards for experience.
The wide receivers are not up to the standards of the big hitters in this league after losing the top two receivers from 2008. Tight end Mike McNeill is the best player on this unit; he comes off a season where he caught 32 passes for 442 yards and six scores.
The offensive line has had some shuffling since practice began in August, and there has been a question of health with one projected starter, but we think this unit will be just fine. Center Jacob Hickman will contend for all-conference honors.
An added offensive weapon is kicker Alex Henery. He connected on 18 of 21 field goal attempts including a 57 yarder. Two of those three misses were from beyond 50 yards.
It may be the schedule that prevents NU from winning the North Division. They play Kansas in Lawrence and Colorado in Boulder in their division and must host Oklahoma from the South. We expect NU and KU to finish tied in the standings, but the Jayhawks will win the key game against the Cornhuskers.
Missouri: That whistling sound you hear is the Missouri Tiger football team coming down like a bomb released over London during WWII. The team was wiped out by graduation. Included in the decimation were quarterback Chase Daniel, tight end Chase Coffman, wide out Jeremy Maclin, tackle Colin Brown, linebacker Michael Keck, safety William Moore, and defensive tackles Ziggy Hood and Stryker Sulak, all of whom were taken in the NFL Draft. A Tiger squad that averaged 42.2 points and 484 yards per game will see a major drop in those numbers.
Sophomore Blaine Gabbert is the new quarterback. He completed five of 13 passes for 43 yards and no touchdowns, and he is being asked to replace the overwhelming all-time passing leader in Columbia, who threw for 4,335 yards and 39 scores last year. Gabbert will be at a further disadvantage because Mizzou’s top three receivers, who accounted for 264 catches for 3,080 yards and 30 scores are no longer around. Jared Perry will be the top man after finishing fourth last year with 41 receptions.
The one big holdover weapon is running back Derrick Washington. He rushed for 1,036 yards and 17 touchdowns in ’08. Depth here is a concern, and true freshman Kendial Lawrence could see significant action.
The offensive line welcomes back three starters, led by all-league candidate Kurtis Gregory at guard. The OL should provide enough blocking for the Tiger backs to top four yards per carry and enough protection to give Gabbert a fair shot to find the open receiver.
On the defensive side, MU was mediocre last year, giving up 27.2 points and 412 yards per game. We’ll give them some credit because they faced Juice Williams, Colin Kaepernick, Joe Ganz, Zac Robinson, Colt McCoy, Josh Freeman, Todd Reesing, Sam Bradford, and C. J. Bacher—Whew! The numbers could improve simply because the offense runs more clock when they have the ball.
Actual talent improvement is evident at linebacker. Sean Weatherspoon is the best player on the team and the best linebacker in college football; he should take home the Butkus Award this year. Last year, he registered an unbelievable 155 tackles with five QB sacks, 13 ½ additional tackles for loss, seven passes knocked away, and three interceptions. He’ll make his two partners better players, because opponents will go to great lengths to try to eliminate him from the play.
The defensive line and the secondary have issues. Three starters are gone from both units. It’s for this reason that we cannot see Missouri competing in the North Division. In fact, we don’t see how they can forge a winning record. Not enough pass rush and too many big plays allowed by a green secondary cannot be hidden in this league.
Colorado: Coach Dan Hawkins begins his fourth season in the People’s Republic of Boulder, and he could be exiled if the Buffs fail to make it to a bowl this year. It’s going to be a touch and go situation. CU has some real talent in places and big holes in other places. Only four starters return on defense, and it was defense that allowed the Buffs to win five games last year.
When CU won big under former coach Gary Barnett, they did so with a bruising running game. This Buffalo team will try to revert back to those days, because every running back who contributed in 2008 is back this year. Rodney Stewart has sneaky speed and quickness and can hit a small hole quickly. His small frame makes him vulnerable to injury, and he missed time last year. Darrell Scott is more of a north-south runner, but he too missed time due to injury.
After the first couple of weeks of August practice, Hawkins had yet to name a starting quarterback. His son Cody was the starter for most of the last two seasons, but he may be on the verge of losing his spot to Tyler Hansen, a better runner. If Hansen wins the job, that is a sign that CU will rely more on the run than the pass.
The rebuilding defense is strongest at linebacker. Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart return after finishing one-two in tackles (215 combined). The secondary has one star-in-the-making in cornerback Cha’Pelle Brown, who knocked away 10 passes.
Up front, the defensive line will be the reason CU doesn’t compete in the North Division title race. No full-time starters return, and three untested sophomores will be pressed into action.
Colorado had troubles with their kicking game last year, and that’s an anomaly kicking in the 5,400 feet elevation of Folsom Field.
An improved offense that can control the ball against average defenses combined with a schedule that includes eight or nine winnable games gives CU a decent shot of getting to seven wins and a bowl game.
Kansas State: Old with the new, and in with the old. Soon to be 70-year old Bill Snyder returns to the Little Apple after a three-year retirement. Combining his final two years, where the Wildcats bounced under .500, with the three forgettable seasons of Ron Prince, K-State has gone 26-33 the last five years. Snyder picked a great time to return, because the ‘Cats have the chance to win a couple extra games this year and return to a bowl.
The defense should be one of the most improved units in the nation. Yes, you can say it cannot get worse. Last year, KSU gave up 35.8 points and 479 total yards per game. Nebraska and Texas Tech topped 600 total yards against them. Kansas State returns its top six tacklers. Three starting defensive linemen return, but Brandon Harold is going to miss some games with a leg injury.
State will go almost exclusively with a 4-2-5 defense, and it’s a smart move. They have much more depth in the secondary than they do at linebacker. Linebackers Alex Hrebec and John Houlik may not make even Honorable Mention All-Big 12, but their 2009 performance will be much better than 2008.
The secondary will benefit from having all the depth, but without a better pass rush up front, enemy QBs will pick them apart.
The offense will struggle early, as it has to break in a new quarterback. Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory were still competing for the starting job at the time of this writing. Whoever wins the job will benefit from having star receiver Brandon Banks return after grabbing 67 passes for 1,049 yards and nine touchdowns. Tight end Jeron Mastrud ranks only behind Oklahoma’s Jermaine Gresham for best in the league.
2008 Leading running back Lamark Brown has been moved back to receiver, but he didn’t have much success carrying the ball and can easily be replaced. Keithen Valentine should surpass Brown’s season total by the sixth or seventh game.
The offensive line suffered a blow when senior guard Brock Unruh was lost for the season due to injury. That leaves two starting holdovers in the trenches. Tackle Nick Stringer will land a spot somewhere on the All-Big 12 team.
With non-conference contests with Massachusetts, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tennessee Tech, the worst KSU can do in the pre-conference is 3-1. If they upset UCLA and enter conference play at 4-0, they have it made in the shade in the bowl picture. Even at 3-1, the Wildcats have an excellent shot at getting to 6-6. They get Texas A&M and Missouri at home and play Iowa State in Kansas City.
Iowa State: In what looked like a trade, Auburn sent defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads to Ames for Coach Gene Chizik. Rhoads got the short end of the stick in that one, but at least he inherits a nice bunch of holdovers from last year. Iowa State will more than likely remain in the basement of the North Division, but the gap to the other teams will shorten this year.
He won’t be confused for a Bradford, McCoy, Robinson, Griffin, or Reesing, but quarterback Austen Arnaud is a poor man’s Seneca Wallace. He passed for 2,792 yards and 15 touchdowns (61.6% completions) last year. His top receiver from last year, R. J. Sumrall has picked up his sheepskin, but all the other key contributors from last year are back. Junior college transfer Darius Reynolds has earned a spot in the starting lineup.
Alexander Robinson rushed for 703 yards (4.6 avg) and scored six times, and he has help this year. Former Florida Gator Bo Williams was supposed to come in and assume the starter’s job, but he won’t even be second team when the season begins. Redshirt freshman Jeremiah Schwartz’s stock is on the rise, and he is a great fit in the new spread offense.
The offensive line may have a few tough times in the early part of the schedule, but they should be okay once the players get uses to multiple shifts in positions. ISU averaged 25.3 points and 387 yards per game last year, and we can see those numbers climbing to 28 points and 400 yards in 2009.
A porous 2008 defense gave up almost 36 points and 453 yards per game, and the numbers could be just as weak or even weaker this year. The defensive line and secondary may take a step back, while the linebackers move forward a tad. Safety James Smith has the best shot of earning post-season accolades. He led ISU with 85 tackles last year.
Middle linebacker Jesse Smith leads the one not-so-weak area. He registered five tackles for loss and six deflected passes last year.
The Cyclones have a decent chance to open 3-1 with a non-conference schedule that includes North Dakota State, Iowa, Kent State, and Army. For the second year in a row, ISU may not win a conference game, but they will lose them by fewer points per game.
Big 12 South
Oklahoma: The Big 12 will be a two-team race this year. Oklahoma and Texas should combine for either 22 or 23 regular season wins. The two could play each other 12 times and split them six to six. The PiRate formula says OU begins the season one point better than Texas. By the seventh week of the season, who know?
Let’s start with the supposed weakness this year. Everybody is saying the offensive line is going to cause the offense to fall backward just enough to finish second. We say, hogwash! We’ve studied the OL in depth, and we’re here to tell you this line is more underrated than former NBA coach Bill Sharman. Trent Williams is a top-rate tackle. He could have been a first day draft pick in the NFL this spring. When center Ben Habern recovers from his lower back injury, he will be one of the top snappers in the league. Brian Simmons will team with Williams on the left side to provide exceptional leadership. This unit will dedicate themselves to top performance much in the way Florida did so after the loss to Ole Miss. Expect total effort and attention to details.
The receivers may not be as talented this year, but if that’s OU’s only real weakness, Coach Bob Stoops will be smiling as his team takes the field in Pasadena in the second week in January. Tight end Jermaine Gresham is the favorite for the Mackey Award this year after catching 66 passes for 950 yards and 14 touchdowns. He should top 1,000 yards and 15 scores this year.
We’ve saved the best parts of the offense for last. The Sooners return two 1,000 yard rushers who combined for 34 touchdowns. Chris Brown (217-1,220) and DeMarco Murray (179-1,002) have an excellent chance to repeat the feat and even increase those numbers.
So, what can Mr. Heisman Trophy do for an encore? He can copy Tim Tebow and follow it up with the National Championship. It doesn’t seem possible that Bradford could improve on 4,720 passing yards, 50 touchdowns, 67.9% completions, and just eight interceptions. He doesn’t need to have a season equal to last. In fact, it might be to OU’s advantage to hold onto the ball a little longer this year and allow the defense to star. Sooner games lasted an average of 151 plays per game, while Florida games lasted an average of only 127 plays per game.
The defense was not up to championship standards last year, but it should be this year. After giving up 24.5 points and 368 yards per game, an improvement to 20 points and 340 yards should be enough to put Oklahoma in Pasadena.
The one slightly vulnerable area on this side of the ball is the secondary, where two new safeties will start. Cornerback Dominique Franks picked off four passes and batted away 10 passes. He could be a 1st Team All-Big 12 this year.
The top linebacker this year is Travis Lewis, who led the team in tackles in 2008 with 144, 12 total tackles for loss. He intercepted four passes. Keenan Clayton and Ryan Reynolds make it the best linebacker unit in the conference.
Up front, OU will be downright stingy against the run and a nightmare to opposing quarterbacks. End Jeremy Beal had 8 ½ sacks and another seven tackles for loss. Gerald McCoy, Auston English, and Adrian Taylor were nearly as tough.
It all comes down to the Red River Shootout on October 17. Yes, Oklahoma State could give the Sooners a good game, and Texas Tech will be out for revenge, but we just don’t see any team other than Texas competing with them. They will either go 13-0 and qualify for the National Championship Game, or go 11-1 and end up in a BCS Bowl.
Texas: This isn’t the number two team in the division, so don’t take that impression from them being here. No, we aren’t saying Texas will disappoint. We are saying that OU is 1A and UT is 1B.
Texas is a decent running back from being unstoppable. If Fozzy Whittaker or Vondrell McGee can supply a little more relief for McCoy, defenses will not be able to slow this offense down.
Colt McCoy is due to win the Heisman Trophy. He completed an insane 76.7% of his passes last year. These were not glorified handoffs. He averaged 11.6 yards per completion and almost nine yards per attempt. McCoy’s TD/INT ratio was 34/8.
Quan Cosby and his 92 receptions, 1,123 yards and 10 touchdowns has moved on, but the Longhorns still have Jordan Shipley, who hauled in 89 passes for 1,060 yards and 11 touchdowns. Keep an eye on flex tight end Dan Buckner. He has big play potential and will not command the tough coverage given to Shipley.
The offensive line has three all-stars. Center Chris Hall, guard Charlie Tanner, and tackle Adam Ulatoski will play for pay next year.
The defense was better than Oklahoma’s last year, and it was the difference in their game. The Longhorns have a little bit of housekeeping to do up front, where only tackle Lamarr Houston returns from last season. Kheeston Randall is big and agile, and it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a star.
Texas is set at linebacker, where Sergio Kindle dumped enemy quarterbacks 10 times last year. In the secondary, safeties Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon broke up 24 passes last year.
The kicking game is so strong, there are two potential star placekickers and two punters who contribute. John Gold is the regular punter, and Justin Tucker is the rugby-style punter.
Texas Tech will bear the brunt of Texas’s wrath when the Red Raiders visit September 19. The Longhorns must face Oklahoma State in Stillwater, but this year looks like a two-team race.
Oklahoma State: We’re not saying it will happen, but can you remember back to 1971? Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Colorado, all of the Big Eight Conference, finished one-two-three in the final poll. Oklahoma State could easily finish 10-2 this year with a scoring margin of 20 points per game.
The Cowboys’ offense is every bit as good as the two titans ahead of them in the league. Quarterback Zac Robinson passed for 3,064 yards and 25 touchdowns and ran for 562 yards and eight more scores. Running back Kendall Hunter rushed for 1,555 yards and 16 touchdowns, and backup Keith Toston added another 686 yards (6.7 avg). Receiver Dez Bryant caught 87 passes for 1,480 yards and 19 touchdowns. All these skill players return this year. To make matters worse, for opponents that is, the Cowboy offensive line returns three very competent starters and adds two very highly-rated newcomers in reserve. OSU gained 5.5 yards per rush in 2008, and there’s no reason to think they won’t continue with that success.
Defensively, the ‘Pokes are just an average team looking to improve to respectability. Their front four and back four have a lot of gaping holes. OSU surrendered 28.1 points and 406 yards per game last year, and those numbers will only marginally improve in 2009. The Cowboys use a variation of the 4-3, and Star linebacker Andre Sexton returns after leading the team with 100 tackles. Middle linebacker Orie Lemon added 90 and batted away eight passes. Third linebacker Patrick Lavine recorded 70 tackles.
Oklahoma State has excellent kick and punt returners. Bryant scored twice on punt returns last year, and Perrish Cox took two kickoffs back for touchdowns.
If the Cowboys can win the opener at home with Georgia, they will possibly move into the Top Five. We can see them competing and even winning the Georgia game, but we don’t see them beating Texas or Oklahoma.
Texas Tech: Red Raider coach Mike Leach keeps plugging in new pieces to his intricate offense in Lubbock. Graham Harrell has left the building after ending his senior season with 5,111 passing yards and 45 touchdowns. Top receiver Michael Crabtree is busy not accepting contract offers with the San Francisco 49ers these days. Back Shannon Woods is no longer around, as are three offensive line starters. Yet, Texas Tech should score 35-40 points per game and gain 450-500 yards.
New quarterback Taylor Potts has already received accolades from Leach who called him the best quarterback he’s ever coached. Potts saw limited action last year and passed for 260 yards on 63.9% completions.
Baron Batch split time with Woods and returns to the backfield after rushing for a team leading 758 yards and seven scores last year.
The offensive line has its strengths and its weaknesses. Guard Brandon Carter and tackle Marlon Winn are seasoned vets, while center Shawn Byrnes and guard Mickey Ofafor have limited experience.
The defense returns enough starters to keep improving. It will be strongest up front with nose tackle Colby Whitlock returning. Linebacker isn’t a strong area, but it’s no great liability. Brian Duncan led the team from his middle ‘backer spot with 94 stops.
The secondary features cornerback Jamar Wall, who batted away 11 passes and took away two more.
Tech should win all four out-of-conference games (North Dakota, Rice, Houston, and New Mexico), but games at Texas, at Nebraska, at Oklahoma State and at home with Oklahoma should be losses. The season ender against Baylor at the Mistake on the Turnpike, AKA Cowboys Stadium, could be a tossup, and the Bears could be playing for bowl eligibility. Call it an eight or nine win season in Lubbock.
Baylor: This is the year if the Bears are ever going to get over the hump and pick up that elusive sixth win. Coach Art Briles has 16 starters returning.
Quarterback Robert Griffin is in the next wave of signal callers after the big three. He comes off a season in which he passed for 2,091 yards with 15 touchdowns versus just three interceptions and ran the ball for 843 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Griffin has a wealth of returning talent at the receiver positions. Kendall Wright and David Gettis combined for 79 catches and 1,040 yards. Tight end Justin Akers isn’t an every down player because Baylor frequently spreads the field and goes four wide, but when he’s in the game, he is hard to bring down after the catch.
Jay Finley led the Bears with 865 rushing yards and could possibly top 1,000 if the offense moves to the next level. He may be used more as a receiver this year, because he’s tough to stop in the open field.
The one fly in the ointment is the offensive line. There will be three new starters up front. If they don’t continue the success that last year’s line enjoyed when they opened holes that led to 4.9 yards per rush, then BU won’t be playing in December or January.
On the defensive side, the top four tacklers and six of the top seven return. The question mark is on the defensive line where two new starters will need to step up and keep blockers away from the linebackers.
Those linebackers are the best trio in years. Antonio Jones, Joe Pawelek, and Antonio Johnson teamed up to make 271 stops intercept six passes (all Pawelek), and break up 10 more.
The back line features three returning starters who did not perform up to Big 12 standards last year. BU allowed 67.4% of enemy passes to be caught for 255 yards per game.
Baylor opens at Wake Forest, and it should be a great game. We’ll call that a Demon Deacon win. Connecticut comes to Waco, and that won’t be an easy win. Northwestern State and Kent State should be cinch wins. If they win three of these first four games, they will still need three conference wins to gain bowl eligibility. They will have to pull of one upset. It’s a 50-50 chance.
Texas A&M:Since R. C. Slocum was shown the door after winning consistently for two decades, this program has fallen off the map, going 36-37 since then. Second year coach Mike Sherman may not be given much time to turn things around in College Station, and the alumni could demand action this year if A&M finishes 5th or 6th in the division. We say the Aggies will do just that.
10 starters return to the offense, led by quarterback Jerrod Johnson. Johnson has talent, but in this division, he’s a distant 6th among the QBs. The once proud running game here disappeared as the Aggies rushed for just 89 yards per game. Cyrus Gray averaged 4.8 yards per carry last year, but he only carried the ball 94 times.
A&M returns their top three and five of their top six receivers. Ryan Tannehill may not start after leading the team in receptions with 55. Jeff Fuller and tight end Jamie McCoy should see more touches after bringing in 50 and 43 passes respectively.
The offensive line is the best part of this side of the ball. The addition of LSU transfer Matt Allen, and the emergence of tackle Danny Baker means there will be much more depth here this year. Look for the Aggies to improve their rushing numbers back into the low triple digits and pass for 260-285 yards.
The defense will be weaker overall this year with very little pass rush and very little ability to stop the passing attacks of the other five South Division rivals. The Aggies lost too much on this side of the ball to contend for any wins inside the division. They better defeat Iowa State at Kyle Field, or else they could go 0-8 in Big 12 play.
Next up: The Southeastern Conference where football definitely is a religion, and The Gators, led by the great leader Tebowses, are the chosen people.
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