PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Canisius	Quinnipiac	-0.5
Fairfield	Iona	-5.3
Stanford	USC	-6.6
Towson	Hofstra	3.8
Tennessee	South Carolina	14.3
Penn St.	Rutgers	4.1
Baylor	Texas Tech	10.1
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-8.6
Marquette	DePaul	7.0
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	10.2
North Alabama	Eastern Kentucky	-2.3
Liberty	North Florida	13.2
Jacksonville St.	Lipscomb	11.9
Jacksonville	Stetson	5.7
Bellarmine	Central Arkansas	12.1
La Salle	St. Bonaventure	-10.7
VCU	George Washington	17.7
Dayton	Saint Louis	1.3
Davidson	Massachusetts	10.7
James Madison	Northeastern	3.9
Drexel	Delaware	2.5
Akron	Ball St.	10.3
Ohio	Bowling Green	8.0
Kent St.	Northern Illinois	13.0
Western Michigan	Buffalo	-15.0
Miami (O)	Toledo	-2.2
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	6.7
Stephen F. Austin	UT Rio Grande Valley	10.9
Kansas	Iowa St.	12.0
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	6.8
Northern Iowa	Indiana St.	8.5
Texas	Oklahoma	5.4
Nebraska	Illinois	-14.1
Texas A&M	Mississippi	4.7
Alabama	Auburn	-0.1
Creighton	Providence	1.2
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	2.6
Loyola (Chi.)	Valparaiso	17.2
Fresno St.	San Jose St.	16.1
UNLV	New Mexico	7.4

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
St. John’s	DePaul	4.3
Michigan St.	Nebraska	16.4
South Florida	Houston	-20.5
Florida	Alabama	0.4
Tennessee	Ole Miss	15.9
East Carolina	Tulane	0.1
Central Florida	Temple	11.4
Louisvile	Pittsburgh	12.6
Dayton	VCU	0.9
Saint Joseph’s	Davidson	-4.5
Richmond	Massachusetts	6.9
Miami (Fla.)	Syracuse	1.2
Villanova	Creighton	10.2
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	-1.4
Notre Dame	North Carolina	-1.9
Bradley	Missouri St.	-3.1
Northwestern	Penn St.	6.3

PiRate Ratings College Football For December 17-19, 2020

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

We apologize for having to totally re-work this section, but the crazy off-the-cuff scheduling and cancellations have done a number on all of the power ratings specialists throughout the land. We keep in touch with many of our brethren, and they too are having to deal with hourly changes to the sports schedules.

This schedule is up to date as of Monday afternoon, 12/14/2020 at 4:00 PM EST.

Monday night update: Vanderbilt & Georgia game cancelled. Georgia is attempting to find a replacement team from outside the SEC.

SMU has opted out of Saturday’s Frisco Bowl. A replacement will be attempted by the bowl.

Tuesday update–The Frisco Bowl has been cancelled. Troy and UL-Monroe have cancelled. And, the Old Oaken Bucket Game–Indiana and Purdue has been cancelled. Michigan’s game with Iowa has been cancelled. The Michigan State-Maryland game has been cancelled.

Thursday update– The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana has been cancelled.

Friday update–Florida State and Wake Forest game has been cancelled.

Regular Season Games
Thursday, December 17
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Troy	UL-Monroe	25.3	26.5	27.3
Friday, December 18
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Indiana	Purdue	14.7	15.0	16.5
Rutgers	Nebraska	-2.9	-3.4	-4.8
Saturday, December 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wake Forest	Florida St.	7.8	9.4	8.8
Wisconsin	Minnesota	14.0	11.8	13.5
Penn St.	Illinois	10.8	10.2	10.6
Iowa	Michigan	16.3	16.8	17.0
Maryland	Michigan St.	-2.4	-1.9	-3.2
Army	Air Force	-5.3	-4.6	-5.3
Utah	Washington St.	6.4	8.0	6.7
UCLA	Stanford	5.3	6.1	4.9
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	-3.2	-2.7	-3.6
Georgia	Vanderbilt	38.1	38.0	39.8
Tennessee	Texas A&M	-13.8	-14.4	-14.4
LSU	Ole Miss	6.8	7.2	7.9
Mississippi St.	Missouri	0.6	0.2	0.2
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
Friday, December 18
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo (n)	Ball St.	11.3	12.5	11.9
Marshall	UAB	6.2	6.2	6.5
USC	Oregon	5.2	4.2	4.8
Saturday, December 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	Tulsa	17.2	18.1	18.8
Clemson (n)	Notre Dame	5.8	6.8	8.0
Iowa St. (n)	Oklahoma	-1.1	-1.3	-0.9
Ohio St. (n)	Northwestern	19.5	18.5	19.2
Alabama (n)	Florida	18.1	19.7	19.9
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana	3.3	4.3	4.5
San Jose St. (n)	Boise St.	-10.4	-8.5	-9.5
(n): Neutral Site
BOWL GAME
Frisco Bowl—Cancelled
Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	UTSA	15.9	15.0	14.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Conference
1	Alabama	140.4	141.3	142.7	141.5	SEC-W
2	Ohio St.	131.4	130.5	133.7	131.9	BTen-E
3	Clemson	129.2	130.0	131.4	130.2	ACC
4	Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	SEC-E
5	Notre Dame	124.4	124.2	124.4	124.3	ACC
6	Florida	122.2	121.7	122.8	122.2	SEC-E
7	Texas A&M	121.6	121.6	122.3	121.8	SEC-W
8	Oklahoma	121.6	121.1	121.8	121.5	B12
9	Iowa St.	120.5	119.8	120.9	120.4	B12
10	Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	BTen-W
11	N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	ACC
12	Wisconsin	119.7	118.0	120.9	119.5	BTen-W
13	Cincinnati	119.2	118.7	119.4	119.1	AAC
14	Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	BTen-E
15	U S C	118.6	116.0	117.7	117.5	P12-S
16	Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	B12
17	Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	SEC-W
18	Oregon	115.5	113.9	114.9	114.8	P12-N
19	BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	Ind.
20	L S U	114.3	113.6	115.4	114.4	SEC-W
21	Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	B12
22	Northwestern	111.9	112.0	114.4	112.8	BTen-W
23	Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	ACC
24	Penn St.	111.8	110.5	112.4	111.6	BTen-E
25	UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	AAC
26	T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	B12
27	Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	SEC-E
28	Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	P12-N
29	Arizona St.	109.2	108.5	108.8	108.8	P12-S
30	Ole Miss	109.0	107.9	109.0	108.6	SEC-W
31	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.9	108.5	P12-S
32	U C L A	108.2	107.3	107.4	107.6	P12-S
33	Buffalo	106.9	108.0	107.7	107.5	MAC-E
34	Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	SUN-E
35	Minnesota	106.7	107.2	108.3	107.4	BTen-W
36	Boise St.	107.2	107.2	106.9	107.1	MWC-M
37	Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	ACC
38	Tennessee	106.3	105.7	106.4	106.1	SEC-E
39	Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	ACC
40	Missouri	105.3	105.0	106.1	105.5	SEC-E
41	Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	BTen-E
42	Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	SUN-W
43	Nebraska	105.0	104.5	106.3	105.3	BTen-W
44	Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	ACC
45	California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	P12-N
46	Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	ACC
47	W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	B12
48	Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	ACC
49	Miss. St.	104.4	103.7	104.8	104.3	SEC-W
50	Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	AAC
51	Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	ACC
52	Stanford	104.4	102.7	104.0	103.7	P12-N
53	Oregon St.	104.0	103.8	103.2	103.7	P12-N
54	Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	BTen-W
55	Washington St.	103.7	102.3	104.2	103.4	P12-N
56	Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	AAC
57	Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	SUN-E
58	Illinois	102.9	102.3	103.8	103.0	BTen-W
59	Tulsa	103.5	102.1	102.1	102.5	AAC
60	Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	SEC-W
61	Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	B12
62	Air Force	101.7	102.4	101.7	101.9	MWC-M
63	NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	ACC
64	Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	AAC
65	Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	Ind.
66	Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	P12-S
67	Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	B12
68	Rutgers	100.6	99.6	100.0	100.1	BTen-E
69	SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	AAC
70	S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	SEC-E
71	Marshall	99.6	99.9	99.2	99.5	CUSA-E
72	Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	BTen-E
73	San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	MWC-W
74	Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	B12
75	San Jose St.	96.9	98.6	97.4	97.6	MWC-W
76	Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	ACC
77	Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	MWC-M
78	Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	MWC-W
79	Ball St.	95.6	95.5	95.8	95.7	MAC-W
80	U A B	95.3	95.7	94.7	95.2	CUSA-W
81	Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	ACC
82	E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	AAC
83	Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	BTen-E
84	Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	MAC-E
85	Army	93.9	95.3	93.9	94.4	Ind.
86	Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	P12-S
87	Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	SUN-E
88	Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	MWC-W
89	Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	MWC-W
90	Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	MAC-W
91	Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	MAC-W
92	Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	SUN-E
93	Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	MAC-W
94	Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	SUN-E
95	Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	MAC-E
96	Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	AAC
97	W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	CUSA-E
98	Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	MAC-E
99	Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	ACC
100	Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	ACC
101	Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	MWC-M
102	Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	SEC-E
103	Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	SUN-W
104	Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	AAC
105	Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	CUSA-W
106	USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	AAC
107	Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	CUSA-E
108	New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	MWC-M
109	Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	CUSA-E
110	U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	CUSA-W
111	Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	MAC-W
112	Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	MWC-M
113	La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	CUSA-W
114	Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	CUSA-E
115	Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	CUSA-E
116	Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	CUSA-W
117	S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	SUN-W
118	N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	MAC-W
119	Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	SUN-W
120	U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	MWC-W
121	Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	B12
122	North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	CUSA-W
123	U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	CUSA-W
124	Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	MAC-E
125	UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	SUN-W
126	Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	MAC-E
127	Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	Ind.

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
Cincinnati	119.2	118.7	119.4	119.1	6-0	8-0
UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	5-3	6-3
Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	3-5	6-5
Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	5-3	7-3
Tulsa	103.5	102.1	102.1	102.5	6-0	6-1
Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	3-3	3-4
SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	4-3	7-3
E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	3-4	3-6
Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	3-4	3-7
Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	1-6	1-6
USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	0-7	1-8
AAC Avg.	100.7	100.0	99.7	100.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	129.2	130.0	131.4	130.2	8-1	9-1
Notre Dame	124.4	124.2	124.4	124.3	9-0	10-0
N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	7-3	8-3
Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	7-2	8-2
Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	3-7	4-7
Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	5-5	6-5
Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	3-4	4-4
Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	4-5	5-5
Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	5-5	5-6
Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	5-5	6-5
NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	7-3	8-3
Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	2-6	3-6
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	3-6	3-7
Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	1-9	1-10
Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	1-9	2-9
ACC Avg.	106.0	106.3	106.2	106.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.6	121.1	121.8	121.5	6-2	7-2
Iowa St.	120.5	119.8	120.9	120.4	8-1	8-2
Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	5-3	6-3
Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	6-3	7-3
T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	5-4	6-4
W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	4-4	5-4
Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	2-7	2-7
Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	4-5	4-6
Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	3-6	4-6
Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	0-8	0-9
Big 12 Avg.	106.9	106.1	106.8	106.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	131.4	130.5	133.7	131.9	5-0	5-0
Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	6-1	6-1
Penn St.	111.8	110.5	112.4	111.6	3-5	3-5
Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	2-4	2-4
Rutgers	100.6	99.6	100.0	100.1	3-5	3-5
Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	2-5	2-5
Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	2-3	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	6-2	6-2
Wisconsin	119.7	118.0	120.9	119.5	2-3	2-3
Northwestern	111.9	112.0	114.4	112.8	6-1	6-1
Minnesota	106.7	107.2	108.3	107.4	3-3	3-3
Nebraska	105.0	104.5	106.3	105.3	2-5	2-5
Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	2-4	2-4
Illinois	102.9	102.3	103.8	103.0	2-5	2-5
Big Ten Avg.	109.3	108.8	110.4	109.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	99.6	99.9	99.2	99.5	4-1	7-1
W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	4-3	5-6
Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	4-2	5-3
Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	0-3	0-5
Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	2-2	2-4
Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	2-4	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
U A B	95.3	95.7	94.7	95.2	3-1	5-3
Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	2-3	2-3
U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	5-2	7-4
La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	4-2	5-4
Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	2-4	3-7
North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	3-4	4-5
U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	0-4	3-5
CUSA Avg.	85.1	85.4	84.8	85.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	x	10-1
Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	x	9-1
Army	93.9	95.3	93.9	94.4	x	8-2
Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	x	0-4
Ind. Avg.	92.6	95.1	92.4	93.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Buffalo	106.9	108.0	107.7	107.5	5-0	5-0
Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	2-1	2-1
Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	2-1	2-1
Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	3-1	3-1
Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	1-5	1-5
Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	0-5	0-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Ball St.	95.6	95.5	95.8	95.7	5-1	5-1
Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	4-2	4-2
Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	4-2	4-2
Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	3-3	3-3
Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	2-4	2-4
N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	0-6	0-6
MAC Avg.	87.8	88.5	87.6	88.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Boise St.	107.2	107.2	106.9	107.1	5-0	5-1
Air Force	101.7	102.4	101.7	101.9	2-2	3-2
Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	2-4	2-4
Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	1-3	1-3
New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	2-5	2-5
Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	1-5	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	4-2	4-4
San Jose St.	96.9	98.6	97.4	97.6	6-0	6-0
Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	6-2	6-2
Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	3-3	3-3
Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	4-4	4-4
U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	0-6	0-6
MWC Avg.	93.3	94.1	93.2	93.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Oregon	115.5	113.9	114.9	114.8	3-2	3-2
Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	3-1	3-1
California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	1-3	1-3
Stanford	104.4	102.7	104.0	103.7	3-2	3-2
Oregon St.	104.0	103.8	103.2	103.7	2-4	2-4
Washington St.	103.7	102.3	104.2	103.4	1-2	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
U S C	118.6	116.0	117.7	117.5	5-0	5-0
Arizona St.	109.2	108.5	108.8	108.8	1-2	1-2
Utah	108.2	108.3	108.9	108.5	2-2	2-2
U C L A	108.2	107.3	107.4	107.6	3-3	3-3
Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	3-1	4-1
Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	0-5	0-5
P12 Avg.	106.8	105.8	106.4	106.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	7-2	7-2
Florida	122.2	121.7	122.8	122.2	8-2	8-2
Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	4-6	4-6
Tennessee	106.3	105.7	106.4	106.1	3-6	3-6
Missouri	105.3	105.0	106.1	105.5	5-4	5-4
S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	2-8	2-8
Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	0-9	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.4	141.3	142.7	141.5	10-0	10-0
Texas A&M	121.6	121.6	122.3	121.8	7-1	7-1
Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	6-4	6-4
L S U	114.3	113.6	115.4	114.4	4-5	4-5
Ole Miss	109.0	107.9	109.0	108.6	4-4	4-4
Miss. St.	104.4	103.7	104.8	104.3	2-7	2-7
Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	3-7	3-7
SEC Avg.	111.7	111.2	112.1	111.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	8-0	11-0
Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	6-2	8-3
Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	4-4	7-5
Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	4-4	5-4
Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	3-6	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	7-1	9-1
Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	2-6	4-7
S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	3-5	4-7
Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	2-6	2-10
UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	0-7	0-10
Sun Avg.	91.1	91.4	90.9	91.2

Conference Ratings

#	League	Avg
1	SEC	111.7
2	BTen	109.5
3	B12	106.6
4	P12	106.4
5	ACC	106.2
6	AAC	100.1
7	MWC	93.5
8	Ind.	93.3
9	Sun	91.2
10	MAC	88.0
11	CUSA	85.1

The Playoffs–What Will Be This Week & What Should Be

The Playoff Committee won’t adjust this week’s top four teams. Only one of the four from last week played a game this past weekend, and Alabama basically showed the nation that they look like the best team in college football since the 2001 Miami of Florida Hurricanes. If somebody tells you that the playoffs need to be expanded from 4 to either 6, 8, or 12 teams, because Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose St. deserve a chance this year, you should reply that they are incorrect when talking about this year only. If the NCAA Playoff Committee wanted to make any changes to make the 2020-2021 college season end the right way, they should change the number of teams in the playoffs–from four to zero!

Alabama is clearly the best team in the nation. If they played Notre Dame, Ohio State, or Clemson next week, the Tide would be favored by two touchdowns minimum over any of the three contenders. If you are old enough to remember UCLA basketball during the three seasons that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and his additional all-American teammates suited up for the Bruins, the NCAA Tournaments were less eventful than the middle of the season Christmas and New Year’s tournaments. For three years, UCLA was the basketball equivalent of the 1927 New York Yankees. The NCAA Tournament was no different than the Bruin Invitational, as UCLA beat Dayton, North Carolina, and Purdue so handily that the games were not meaningful. Alabama is going to do the same thing this year.

We believe that Clemson will edge Notre Dame in the ACC Championship, as the Tigers almost beat the Irish in South Bend without having Trevor Lawrence available. Notre Dame will assuredly drop to #4 in the playoff rankings, but they will stay in the top 4 to be Sugar Bowl fodder for Alabama. Ohio State and Clemson would then face off in the Rose Bowl. Ten days later, Alabama will run roughshod over the Ohio State-Clemson winner, most likely Clemson, and it will be like the Yankees-Dodgers in the World Series during the 1950’s, with Alabama being the Yankees.

If you ask us whether Ohio State deserves to be in the Playoffs, as they have only played five games, when the Big Ten had previously stated that a team had to play at least six games to be eligible for the Big Ten Championship, we have a somewhat divided opinion. First, we 100% agree that Ohio State should be in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Let’s say that rather than declare the Michigan game postponed, that Ohio State forfeited the game to show a six-game slate. Even with the one loss, Ohio State beats out Indiana on the tiebreaker, and it doesn’t affect their eye test rating. So, the Buckeyes deserve the East Division championship. We kind of compare this to the rule where a Major League batter can be the batting champion even if he fails to get the required 502 plate appearances in a 162-game schedule, if you take his at-bats and include additional outs until you reach the 502 required PA’s. If the batter still has the highest batting average with those outs added, he is the batting champion.

For example, in 1996, legendary hitter Tony Gwynn batted .353, but he only made 498 plate appearances, which did not qualify for the batting crown. He needed four additional plate appearances. With four outs added to Gwynn’s actual record, his batting average dropped to .349, which was still better than the next highest average, Rockies’ star Ellis Burks at .344. So, Gwynn won the batting title at .353.

Likewise, adding one loss to Ohio State’s record still allows the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten East in a tiebreaker with Indiana.

That being said, do we believe that Ohio State is one of the four best teams in the nation this year? The short answer is that our own ratings show the Buckeyes to be the second best team. However, if we were on the Playoff Committee, we would be totally at a loss to separate Ohio State and USC. As for any of the G5 teams, we hate to say it, but none of them can play either Ohio State or USC to within 10 points. A G5 Playoff with Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose State would be quite entertaining and much better TV choices than the bowl games, even the New Year’s Six games. But, the only teams outside the current top four that should be in consideration for the Playoffs are USC and Texas A&M. Additionally, it is more accurate to state that the loser of the ACC Championship Game should be removed in favor of an undefeated USC team this year. A one-loss Texas A&M team that beat Florida and played Alabama better than any other opponent might be the second best team in the nation, and it would be hard to convince us that they don’t belong in the Big Four if the ACC loser loses by a substantial margin.

Here is our belief as to what will happen depending on whether each of the contenders win or lose this week.

Alabama–If the Crimson Tide wins, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed. If the Crimson Tide loses, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #3 seed.

Ohio State–If the Buckeyes win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed. If the Buckeyes lose, they are in a NY6 bowl and not in the playoffs.

Notre Dame–If the Irish win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 seed or Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed if Bama were to lose. If the Irish lose, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed.

Clemson–If the Tigers win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed based on what Ohio State does. If the Tigers lose, they are in the Orange Bowl and not in the playoffs.

Texas A&M–The Aggies must win and then hope for Clemson or Ohio State to lose, possibly Notre Dame to lose by 20 or more points. If the Aggies back into the Playoffs, they will be headed to the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed if Alabama is #1, or to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State or Notre Dame is #1

USC–Notre Dame must beat Clemson, and Northwestern must upset Ohio State, while USC beats Washington by 28 or more points, and Texas A&M doesn’t slaughter Tennessee.

Cincinnati–Clemson, Ohio State, and USC must lose, and maybe even Texas A&M.

Any 2-loss team–We don’t see any scenario where Oklahoma, Iowa State, Florida, or Clemson could make the playoffs with two losses.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Wednesday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Baylor	110.8	3.0	Oklahoma St.	104.2	9.6
Charlotte	92.6	2.5	Rice	95.5	-0.4
Creighton	109.3	3.0	Providence	105.5	6.8
Davidson	105.7	3.0	St. Bonaventure	102.7	6.0
Dayton	107.0	3.0	La Salle	97.0	13.0
DePaul	103.7	3.0	Georgetown	106.4	0.3
Detroit	95.5	1.0	Northern Kentucky	104.3	-7.8
Eastern Illinois	91.8	0.0	UT Martin	92.1	-0.3
Fairleigh Dickinson	96.2	2.5	Wagner	92.4	6.3
Florida	111.1	3.0	LSU	114.3	-0.2
Florida Atlantic	100.8	2.5	Louisiana Tech	101.7	1.6
Fordham	95.0	2.5	George Washington	93.1	4.4
Georgia	104.6	3.0	Missouri	105.1	2.5
Houston Baptist	93.3	2.5	Incarnate Word	85.4	10.4
Long Beach St.	96.0	2.5	UC Riverside	90.4	8.1
Marshall	98.9	3.0	Florida Int’l.	97.8	4.1
Massachusetts	96.2	2.5	Richmond	98.0	0.7
McNeese St.	89.8	2.5	Texas A&M CC	93.9	-1.6
Morehead St.	95.0	0.0	SIU Edwardsville	88.3	6.7
New Mexico	99.0	3.0	Boise St.	101.2	0.8
Nicholls St.	90.4	2.5	Northwestern St.	87.3	5.6
North Carolina St.	111.8	3.0	Georgia Tech	103.6	11.2
Northwestern	106.0	2.5	Ohio St.	110.5	-2.0
Notre Dame	105.2	3.0	Clemson	111.6	-3.4
Oakland	98.6	2.5	Youngstown St.	94.3	6.8
Old Dominion	104.3	3.0	Southern Miss.	103.0	4.3
Robert Morris	94.3	2.5	St. Francis (Bklyn)	93.7	3.1
Rutgers	106.6	2.5	Penn St.	110.3	-1.2
Sacred Heart	95.9	2.5	Long Island	94.1	4.3
Saint Louis	102.6	3.0	Duquesne	99.9	5.7
Sam Houston St.	100.1	3.0	Central Arkansas	90.5	12.6
San Diego St.	102.7	3.0	Fresno St.	106.5	-0.8
San Jose St.	86.3	3.0	Wyoming	90.0	-0.7
Seton Hall	107.5	3.0	Marquette	112.8	-2.3
Southeastern Louisiana	95.5	2.5	New Orleans	94.9	3.1
St. Francis (PA)	95.1	3.0	Bryant	89.4	8.7
Tulane	91.9	2.5	South Florida	104.2	-9.8
UTEP	93.0	3.0	Middle Tennessee	94.8	1.2
Vanderbilt	102.5	2.5	Arkansas	107.8	-2.8
Washington	110.1	3.0	Oregon St.	105.4	7.7
Washington St.	97.6	3.0	Oregon	107.8	-7.2
West Virginia	103.4	3.0	Iowa St.	114.7	-8.3
Western Kentucky	103.1	3.0	UTSA	102.0	4.1

 

Conference Tournaments Update

Big South Conference

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)

Presbyterian	106	UNC-Asheville	59
Charleston Sou.	71	USC Upstate	52
Hampton	77	Longwood	71

 

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7 (at Campbell)
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	Radford (20-10)	7	Presbyterian (18-14)
3	Winthrop (18-11)	6	Charleston Southern (16-14)
1	Campbell (19-11)	8	Hampton (15-15)
4	Gardner-Webb (20-11)	5	High Point (16-14)

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seed)

Wright St.	71	IUPUI	56
Green Bay	82	Illinois-Chicago	77

 

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)

Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
3	Oakland (15-16)	6	Youngstown St. (12-19)
2	Northern Kentucky (23-8)	7	Detroit (11-19)

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	St. Francis (PA) (16-13)	8	Bryant (10-19)
2	Fairleigh-Dickinson (17-13)	7	Wagner (13-16)
3	Sacred Heart (15-16)	6	Long Island (15-15)
4	Robert Morris (16-15)	5	St. Francis (Bklyn) (17-14)

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

First Round–Wednesday, March 6
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
5	Morehead St. (12-19)	8	SIU Edwardsville (10-20)
6	Eastern Illinois (14-17)	7	UT-Martin (11-18)

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Boston U	71	Loyola (MD)	63
Holy Cross	79	Lafayette	74

 

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Colgate (21-10)	8	Boston U (15-17)
2	Bucknell (19-10)	10	Holy Cross (16-16)
3	Lehigh (19-10)	6	Army (13-18)
4	American (15-14)	5	Navy (11-18)

 

Updated Bracketology Later Today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Monday, January 21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings (1-353)

Rk	Team	PiRate
1	Duke	126.2
2	Virginia	124.8
3	Michigan St.	124.3
4	Gonzaga	122.6
5	Tennessee	122.5
6	Michigan	119.6
7	North Carolina	119.3
8	Kansas	118.7
9	Virginia Tech	117.9
10	Purdue	117.1
11	Texas Tech	117.1
12	Nebraska	117.0
13	Maryland	117.0
14	Buffalo	117.0
15	Kentucky	116.9
16	Iowa St.	116.9
17	Auburn	116.6
18	Louisville	116.5
19	Nevada	116.4
20	LSU	115.8
21	Wisconsin	115.7
22	TCU	115.5
23	Oklahoma	115.3
24	Mississippi St.	115.2
25	Houston	115.2
26	Iowa	114.9
27	Mississippi	114.7
28	Marquette	114.4
29	Villanova	114.3
30	North Carolina St.	113.9
31	Florida St.	113.7
32	Cincinnati	113.5
33	Texas	113.2
34	Florida	113.1
35	Indiana	112.9
36	Ohio St.	112.6
37	Kansas St.	112.6
38	Wofford	112.4
39	Syracuse	112.3
40	Butler	112.2
41	Saint Mary’s	112.1
42	San Francisco	111.7
43	St. John’s	111.6
44	Lipscomb	111.6
45	Washington	111.3
46	Utah St.	111.2
47	Central Florida	111.2
48	Murray St.	111.1
49	Arizona	111.1
50	Virginia Commonwealth	110.6
51	Clemson	110.5
52	Baylor	110.3
53	Alabama	110.2
54	Arizona St.	110.1
55	Creighton	109.9
56	Toledo	109.9
57	Seton Hall	109.8
58	Fresno St.	109.8
59	New Mexico St.	109.6
60	Minnesota	109.5
61	Oregon	109.1
62	Pittsburgh	108.8
63	Northwestern	108.7
64	Arkansas	108.7
65	Hofstra	108.6
66	Temple	108.5
67	Vermont	108.4
68	Dayton	108.4
69	Liberty	108.2
70	Oregon St.	107.8
71	East Tennessee St.	107.7
72	Memphis	107.6
73	Davidson	107.4
74	Yale	107.4
75	Penn St.	107.2
76	Providence	107.0
77	UNC Greensboro	107.0
78	Xavier	107.0
79	Belmont	106.9
80	Missouri	106.9
81	Notre Dame	106.8
82	Furman	106.8
83	Oklahoma St.	106.7
84	Ball St.	106.7
85	UCLA	106.5
86	Miami (Fla.)	106.5
87	West Virginia	106.4
88	Georgia Tech	106.4
89	Saint Louis	106.3
90	Texas St.	106.2
91	Northern Kentucky	106.1
92	Connecticut	106.0
93	Georgetown	106.0
94	Loyola (Chi.)	105.9
95	Colorado	105.9
96	Grand Canyon	105.8
97	South Dakota St.	105.7
98	Old Dominion	105.6
99	Georgia St.	105.6
100	San Diego	105.3
101	Drake	105.2
102	Northeastern	105.2
103	USC	105.1
104	Bowling Green	105.1
105	Jacksonville St.	105.0
106	BYU	104.8
107	DePaul	104.8
108	South Carolina	104.8
109	UC Irvine	104.8
110	Georgia	104.8
111	Vanderbilt	104.7
112	Boston College	104.7
113	Utah Valley	104.6
114	Penn	104.5
115	North Texas	104.4
116	Charleston	104.4
117	Georgia Southern	104.4
118	Rhode Island	104.3
119	Illinois	104.3
120	SMU	104.2
121	Marshall	104.2
122	Brown	104.2
123	Tulsa	104.2
124	Montana	104.1
125	George Mason	103.7
126	South Florida	103.7
127	Radford	103.7
128	Wichita St.	103.7
129	Rutgers	103.6
130	Western Kentucky	103.5
131	Stanford	103.4
132	Austin Peay	103.3
133	Stony Brook	103.3
134	Utah	103.2
135	Louisiana Monroe	103.0
136	Loyola Marymount	102.7
137	Bucknell	102.7
138	Central Michigan	102.6
139	Texas A&M	102.5
140	Akron	102.5
141	UC Santa Barbara	102.4
142	Northern Illinois	102.3
143	Boise St.	102.2
144	Louisiana Tech	102.2
145	Kent St.	102.2
146	Harvard	101.8
147	Lehigh	101.8
148	Duquesne	101.4
149	Colgate	101.4
150	Wright St.	101.3
151	Princeton	101.2
152	Wake Forest	101.1
153	Rider	101.1
154	Winthrop	101.0
155	San Diego St.	100.9
156	UNLV	100.8
157	NJIT	100.7
158	Samford	100.6
159	Abilene Christian	100.6
160	Southern Illinois	100.5
161	Louisiana	100.3
162	UAB	100.0
163	Weber St.	99.9
164	Eastern Michigan	99.8
165	Seattle	99.7
166	Ohio	99.5
167	North Florida	99.5
168	Cal St. Bakersfield	99.5
169	Southern Miss	99.5
170	Miami (O)	99.5
171	Gardner Webb	99.3
172	Illinois St.	99.1
173	Valparaiso	99.1
174	Evansville	99.0
175	Holy Cross	98.9
176	Saint Joseph’s	98.9
177	St. Bonaventure	98.9
178	Omaha	98.8
179	Indiana St.	98.7
180	New Mexico	98.7
181	Santa Clara	98.7
182	Hawaii	98.5
183	Mercer	98.4
184	Massachusetts	98.4
185	Pepperdine	98.4
186	Coastal Carolina	98.4
187	Pacific	98.3
188	Dartmouth	98.2
189	IUPUI	98.1
190	Troy	98.0
191	Florida Int’l.	97.8
192	Presbyterian	97.7
193	Sam Houston St.	97.7
194	Detroit	97.6
195	Florida Atlantic	97.5
196	UTSA	97.3
197	Washington St.	97.1
198	Cal St. Fullerton	97.0
199	Hartford	97.0
200	Long Beach St.	97.0
201	American	96.8
202	UT Rio Grande Valley	96.8
203	Green Bay	96.7
204	Northern Colorado	96.6
205	Purdue Fort Wayne	96.6
206	Missouri St.	96.6
207	UT Arlington	96.6
208	High Point	96.5
209	Delaware	96.4
210	Oakland	96.3
211	UMass Lowell	96.3
212	Fordham	96.3
213	Texas Southern	96.2
214	Richmond	96.2
215	Colorado St.	96.2
216	Northern Iowa	96.2
217	Campbell	96.1
218	East Carolina	96.1
219	California Baptist	96.0
220	North Dakota St.	95.8
221	Western Michigan	95.7
222	Illinois Chicago	95.7
223	Bradley	95.6
224	Little Rock	95.5
225	The Citadel	95.5
226	Eastern Kentucky	95.4
227	Air Force	95.3
228	South Dakota	95.2
229	Longwood	95.1
230	Iona	95.0
231	Cornell	95.0
232	Boston University	94.9
233	William & Mary	94.9
234	Sacred Heart	94.7
235	Arkansas St.	94.6
236	St. Francis (Bklyn)	94.6
237	North Carolina A&T	94.5
238	St. Francis (PA)	94.5
239	UNC Wilmington	94.5
240	Army	94.4
241	Chattanooga	94.4
242	Wagner	94.3
243	Central Arkansas	94.3
244	Drexel	94.3
245	Canisius	94.2
246	Long Island	94.1
247	Missouri Kansas City	94.0
248	Maryland Baltimore Co.	94.0
249	Quinnipiac	93.9
250	Morehead St.	93.9
251	Charleston Southern	93.9
252	Robert Morris	93.8
253	California	93.7
254	Idaho St.	93.7
255	Fairleigh Dickinson	93.7
256	Eastern Illinois	93.6
257	Charlotte	93.6
258	Columbia	93.4
259	Central Connecticut	93.4
260	South Alabama	93.3
261	Appalachian St.	93.3
262	James Madison	93.3
263	Hampton	93.3
264	George Washington	93.2
265	Norfolk St.	93.2
266	Siena	93.1
267	Rice	93.1
268	UC Davis	93.1
269	La Salle	93.0
270	New Orleans	93.0
271	Milwaukee	93.0
272	Stephen F. Austin	92.9
273	Montana St.	92.9
274	Houston Baptist	92.8
275	Southern Utah	92.8
276	Grambling	92.8
277	Jacksonville	92.7
278	Texas A&M CC	92.6
279	Florida Gulf Coast	92.6
280	Lamar	92.5
281	North Dakota	92.4
282	Marist	92.3
283	Prairie View	92.3
284	UTEP	92.2
285	Loyola (Md.)	92.2
286	Monmouth	92.1
287	Cal St. Northridge	92.0
288	Fairfield	91.9
289	Western Illinois	91.9
290	Sacramento St.	91.8
291	Nicholls St.	91.7
292	Youngstown St.	91.5
293	Navy	91.5
294	Western Carolina	91.3
295	Middle Tennessee	91.2
296	Niagara	91.1
297	Eastern Washington	91.1
298	Towson	91.0
299	UC Riverside	90.9
300	Northern Arizona	90.9
301	Oral Roberts	90.9
302	Denver	90.8
303	North Alabama	90.8
304	Alabama St.	90.7
305	Tulane	90.7
306	Southeast Missouri St.	90.6
307	Lafayette	90.5
308	VMI	90.5
309	Albany	90.4
310	Southeastern Louisiana	90.3
311	Cleveland St.	90.3
312	North Carolina Central	90.1
313	Tennessee St.	89.9
314	Bethune Cookman	89.6
315	Saint Peter’s	89.5
316	Arkansas Pine Bluff	89.4
317	Mount St. Mary’s	89.3
318	McNeese St.	89.3
319	Howard	89.2
320	Morgan St.	89.2
321	Portland St.	89.2
322	Portland	89.0
323	USC Upstate	88.6
324	UT Martin	88.5
325	Maine	88.3
326	Cal Poly	88.0
327	Wyoming	88.0
328	Elon	87.9
329	Jackson St.	87.9
330	SIU Edwardsville	87.4
331	Florida A&M	87.4
332	South Carolina St.	87.3
333	Tennessee Tech	87.3
334	Binghamton	87.1
335	Manhattan	86.9
336	Bryant	86.6
337	Idaho	86.2
338	Northwestern St.	86.1
339	San Jose St.	86.0
340	Southern	85.4
341	Stetson	85.2
342	Incarnate Word	84.5
343	New Hampshire	83.6
344	Coppin St.	83.5
345	Kennesaw St.	83.1
346	Savannah St.	82.4
347	Alcorn St.	82.2
348	Alabama A&M	81.6
349	Chicago St.	81.5
350	Mississippi Valley St.	81.4
351	Maryland Eastern Shore	80.5
352	UNC Asheville	80.1
353	Delaware St.	78.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

#	America East	PiRate
67	Vermont	108.4
133	Stony Brook	103.3
199	Hartford	97.0
211	UMass Lowell	96.3
248	Maryland Baltimore Co.	94.0
309	Albany	90.4
325	Maine	88.3
334	Binghamton	87.1
343	New Hampshire	83.6
#	American Athletic	PiRate
25	Houston	115.2
32	Cincinnati	113.5
47	Central Florida	111.2
66	Temple	108.5
72	Memphis	107.6
92	Connecticut	106.0
120	SMU	104.2
123	Tulsa	104.2
126	South Florida	103.7
128	Wichita St.	103.7
218	East Carolina	96.1
305	Tulane	90.7
#	Atlantic 10	PiRate
50	Virginia Commonwealth	110.6
68	Dayton	108.4
73	Davidson	107.4
89	Saint Louis	106.3
118	Rhode Island	104.3
125	George Mason	103.7
148	Duquesne	101.4
176	Saint Joseph’s	98.9
177	St. Bonaventure	98.9
184	Massachusetts	98.4
212	Fordham	96.3
214	Richmond	96.2
264	George Washington	93.2
269	La Salle	93.0
#	Atlantic Coast	PiRate
1	Duke	126.2
2	Virginia	124.8
7	North Carolina	119.3
9	Virginia Tech	117.9
18	Louisville	116.5
30	North Carolina St.	113.9
31	Florida St.	113.7
39	Syracuse	112.3
51	Clemson	110.5
62	Pittsburgh	108.8
81	Notre Dame	106.8
86	Miami (Fla.)	106.5
88	Georgia Tech	106.4
112	Boston College	104.7
152	Wake Forest	101.1
#	Atlantic Sun	PiRate
44	Lipscomb	111.6
69	Liberty	108.2
157	NJIT	100.7
167	North Florida	99.5
277	Jacksonville	92.7
279	Florida Gulf Coast	92.6
303	North Alabama	90.8
341	Stetson	85.2
345	Kennesaw St.	83.1
#	Big 12	PiRate
8	Kansas	118.7
11	Texas Tech	117.1
16	Iowa St.	116.9
22	TCU	115.5
23	Oklahoma	115.3
33	Texas	113.2
37	Kansas St.	112.6
52	Baylor	110.3
83	Oklahoma St.	106.7
87	West Virginia	106.4
#	Big East	PiRate
28	Marquette	114.4
29	Villanova	114.3
40	Butler	112.2
43	St. John’s	111.6
55	Creighton	109.9
57	Seton Hall	109.8
76	Providence	107.0
78	Xavier	107.0
93	Georgetown	106.0
107	DePaul	104.8
#	Big Sky	PiRate
124	Montana	104.1
163	Weber St.	99.9
204	Northern Colorado	96.6
254	Idaho St.	93.7
273	Montana St.	92.9
275	Southern Utah	92.8
290	Sacramento St.	91.8
297	Eastern Washington	91.1
300	Northern Arizona	90.9
321	Portland St.	89.2
337	Idaho	86.2
#	Big South	PiRate
127	Radford	103.7
154	Winthrop	101.0
171	Gardner Webb	99.3
192	Presbyterian	97.7
208	High Point	96.5
217	Campbell	96.1
229	Longwood	95.1
251	Charleston Southern	93.9
263	Hampton	93.3
323	USC Upstate	88.6
352	UNC Asheville	80.1
#	Big Ten	PiRate
3	Michigan St.	124.3
6	Michigan	119.6
10	Purdue	117.1
12	Nebraska	117.0
13	Maryland	117.0
21	Wisconsin	115.7
26	Iowa	114.9
35	Indiana	112.9
36	Ohio St.	112.6
60	Minnesota	109.5
63	Northwestern	108.7
75	Penn St.	107.2
119	Illinois	104.3
129	Rutgers	103.6
#	Big West	PiRate
109	UC Irvine	104.8
141	UC Santa Barbara	102.4
182	Hawaii	98.5
198	Cal St. Fullerton	97.0
200	Long Beach St.	97.0
268	UC Davis	93.1
287	Cal St. Northridge	92.0
299	UC Riverside	90.9
326	Cal Poly	88.0
#	Colonial Athletic	PiRate
65	Hofstra	108.6
102	Northeastern	105.2
116	Charleston	104.4
209	Delaware	96.4
233	William & Mary	94.9
239	UNC Wilmington	94.5
244	Drexel	94.3
262	James Madison	93.3
298	Towson	91.0
328	Elon	87.9
#	Conference USA	PiRate
98	Old Dominion	105.6
115	North Texas	104.4
121	Marshall	104.2
130	Western Kentucky	103.5
144	Louisiana Tech	102.2
162	UAB	100.0
169	Southern Miss	99.5
191	Florida Int’l.	97.8
195	Florida Atlantic	97.5
196	UTSA	97.3
257	Charlotte	93.6
267	Rice	93.1
284	UTEP	92.2
295	Middle Tennessee	91.2
#	Horizon	PiRate
91	Northern Kentucky	106.1
150	Wright St.	101.3
189	IUPUI	98.1
194	Detroit	97.6
203	Green Bay	96.7
210	Oakland	96.3
222	Illinois Chicago	95.7
271	Milwaukee	93.0
292	Youngstown St.	91.5
311	Cleveland St.	90.3
#	Ivy	PiRate
74	Yale	107.4
114	Penn	104.5
122	Brown	104.2
146	Harvard	101.8
151	Princeton	101.2
188	Dartmouth	98.2
231	Cornell	95.0
258	Columbia	93.4
#	Metro Atlantic	PiRate
153	Rider	101.1
230	Iona	95.0
245	Canisius	94.2
249	Quinnipiac	93.9
266	Siena	93.1
282	Marist	92.3
286	Monmouth	92.1
288	Fairfield	91.9
296	Niagara	91.1
315	Saint Peter’s	89.5
335	Manhattan	86.9
#	Mid-American	PiRate
14	Buffalo	117.0
56	Toledo	109.9
84	Ball St.	106.7
104	Bowling Green	105.1
138	Central Michigan	102.6
140	Akron	102.5
142	Northern Illinois	102.3
145	Kent St.	102.2
164	Eastern Michigan	99.8
166	Ohio	99.5
170	Miami (O)	99.5
221	Western Michigan	95.7
#	Mideastern Athletic	PiRate
237	North Carolina A&T	94.5
265	Norfolk St.	93.2
312	North Carolina Central	90.1
314	Bethune Cookman	89.6
319	Howard	89.2
320	Morgan St.	89.2
331	Florida A&M	87.4
332	South Carolina St.	87.3
344	Coppin St.	83.5
346	Savannah St.	82.4
351	Maryland Eastern Shore	80.5
353	Delaware St.	78.2
#	Missouri Valley	PiRate
94	Loyola (Chi.)	105.9
101	Drake	105.2
160	Southern Illinois	100.5
172	Illinois St.	99.1
173	Valparaiso	99.1
174	Evansville	99.0
179	Indiana St.	98.7
206	Missouri St.	96.6
216	Northern Iowa	96.2
223	Bradley	95.6
#	Mountain West	PiRate
19	Nevada	116.4
46	Utah St.	111.2
58	Fresno St.	109.8
143	Boise St.	102.2
155	San Diego St.	100.9
156	UNLV	100.8
180	New Mexico	98.7
215	Colorado St.	96.2
227	Air Force	95.3
327	Wyoming	88.0
339	San Jose St.	86.0
#	Northeast	PiRate
234	Sacred Heart	94.7
236	St. Francis (Bklyn)	94.6
238	St. Francis (PA)	94.5
242	Wagner	94.3
246	Long Island	94.1
252	Robert Morris	93.8
255	Fairleigh Dickinson	93.7
259	Central Connecticut	93.4
317	Mount St. Mary’s	89.3
336	Bryant	86.6
#	Ohio Valley	PiRate
48	Murray St.	111.1
79	Belmont	106.9
105	Jacksonville St.	105.0
132	Austin Peay	103.3
226	Eastern Kentucky	95.4
250	Morehead St.	93.9
256	Eastern Illinois	93.6
306	Southeast Missouri St.	90.6
313	Tennessee St.	89.9
324	UT Martin	88.5
330	SIU Edwardsville	87.4
333	Tennessee Tech	87.3
#	Pac-12	PiRate
45	Washington	111.3
49	Arizona	111.1
54	Arizona St.	110.1
61	Oregon	109.1
70	Oregon St.	107.8
85	UCLA	106.5
95	Colorado	105.9
103	USC	105.1
131	Stanford	103.4
134	Utah	103.2
197	Washington St.	97.1
253	California	93.7
#	Patriot	PiRate
137	Bucknell	102.7
147	Lehigh	101.8
149	Colgate	101.4
175	Holy Cross	98.9
201	American	96.8
232	Boston University	94.9
240	Army	94.4
285	Loyola (Md.)	92.2
293	Navy	91.5
307	Lafayette	90.5
#	Southeastern	PiRate
5	Tennessee	122.5
15	Kentucky	116.9
17	Auburn	116.6
20	LSU	115.8
24	Mississippi St.	115.2
27	Mississippi	114.7
34	Florida	113.1
53	Alabama	110.2
64	Arkansas	108.7
80	Missouri	106.9
108	South Carolina	104.8
110	Georgia	104.8
111	Vanderbilt	104.7
139	Texas A&M	102.5
#	Southern	PiRate
38	Wofford	112.4
71	East Tennessee St.	107.7
77	UNC Greensboro	107.0
82	Furman	106.8
158	Samford	100.6
183	Mercer	98.4
225	The Citadel	95.5
241	Chattanooga	94.4
294	Western Carolina	91.3
308	VMI	90.5
#	Southland	PiRate
159	Abilene Christian	100.6
193	Sam Houston St.	97.7
243	Central Arkansas	94.3
270	New Orleans	93.0
272	Stephen F. Austin	92.9
274	Houston Baptist	92.8
278	Texas A&M CC	92.6
280	Lamar	92.5
291	Nicholls St.	91.7
310	Southeastern Louisiana	90.3
318	McNeese St.	89.3
338	Northwestern St.	86.1
342	Incarnate Word	84.5
#	Southwestern Athletic	PiRate
213	Texas Southern	96.2
276	Grambling	92.8
283	Prairie View	92.3
304	Alabama St.	90.7
316	Arkansas Pine Bluff	89.4
329	Jackson St.	87.9
340	Southern	85.4
347	Alcorn St.	82.2
348	Alabama A&M	81.6
350	Mississippi Valley St.	81.4
#	Summit	PiRate
97	South Dakota St.	105.7
178	Omaha	98.8
205	Purdue Fort Wayne	96.6
220	North Dakota St.	95.8
228	South Dakota	95.2
281	North Dakota	92.4
289	Western Illinois	91.9
301	Oral Roberts	90.9
302	Denver	90.8
#	Sun Belt	PiRate
90	Texas St.	106.2
99	Georgia St.	105.6
117	Georgia Southern	104.4
135	Louisiana Monroe	103.0
161	Louisiana	100.3
186	Coastal Carolina	98.4
190	Troy	98.0
207	UT Arlington	96.6
224	Little Rock	95.5
235	Arkansas St.	94.6
260	South Alabama	93.3
261	Appalachian St.	93.3
#	West Coast	PiRate
4	Gonzaga	122.6
41	Saint Mary’s	112.1
42	San Francisco	111.7
100	San Diego	105.3
106	BYU	104.8
136	Loyola Marymount	102.7
181	Santa Clara	98.7
185	Pepperdine	98.4
187	Pacific	98.3
322	Portland	89.0
#	Western Athletic	PiRate
59	New Mexico St.	109.6
96	Grand Canyon	105.8
113	Utah Valley	104.6
165	Seattle	99.7
168	Cal St. Bakersfield	99.5
202	UT Rio Grande Valley	96.8
219	California Baptist	96.0
247	Missouri Kansas City	94.0
349	Chicago St.	81.5

 

Conference Ratings

#	League	PiRate Avg.
1	Big 12	113.3
2	Big Ten	113.2
3	Atlantic Coast	112.6
4	Southeastern	111.2
5	Big East	109.7
6	American Athletic	105.4
7	Pac-12	105.4
8	West Coast	104.4
9	Mid-American	103.6
10	Atlantic 10	101.2
11	Ivy	100.7
12	Mountain West	100.5
13	Southern	100.5
14	Missouri Valley	99.6
15	Sun Belt	99.1
16	Conference USA	98.7
17	Western Athletic	98.6
18	Colonial Athletic	97.0
19	Horizon	96.7
20	Patriot	96.5
21	Ohio Valley	96.1
22	Atlantic Sun	96.0
23	Big West	96.0
24	Summit	95.4
25	Big South	95.0
26	America East	94.3
27	Big Sky	93.6
28	Northeast	92.9
29	Metro Atlantic	92.8
30	Southland	92.2
31	Southwestern Athletic	88.0
32	Mideastern Athletic	87.1

 

PiRate Rating (Alphabetical)

Team	PiRate
Abilene Christian	100.6
Air Force	95.3
Akron	102.5
Alabama	110.2
Alabama A&M	81.6
Alabama St.	90.7
Albany	90.4
Alcorn St.	82.2
American	96.8
Appalachian St.	93.3
Arizona	111.1
Arizona St.	110.1
Arkansas	108.7
Arkansas Pine Bluff	89.4
Arkansas St.	94.6
Army	94.4
Auburn	116.6
Austin Peay	103.3
Ball St.	106.7
Baylor	110.3
Belmont	106.9
Bethune Cookman	89.6
Binghamton	87.1
Boise St.	102.2
Boston College	104.7
Boston University	94.9
Bowling Green	105.1
Bradley	95.6
Brown	104.2
Bryant	86.6
Bucknell	102.7
Buffalo	117.0
Butler	112.2
BYU	104.8
Cal Poly	88.0
Cal St. Bakersfield	99.5
Cal St. Fullerton	97.0
Cal St. Northridge	92.0
California	93.7
California Baptist	96.0
Campbell	96.1
Canisius	94.2
Central Arkansas	94.3
Central Connecticut	93.4
Central Florida	111.2
Central Michigan	102.6
Charleston	104.4
Charleston Southern	93.9
Charlotte	93.6
Chattanooga	94.4
Chicago St.	81.5
Cincinnati	113.5
Clemson	110.5
Cleveland St.	90.3
Coastal Carolina	98.4
Colgate	101.4
Colorado	105.9
Colorado St.	96.2
Columbia	93.4
Connecticut	106.0
Coppin St.	83.5
Cornell	95.0
Creighton	109.9
Dartmouth	98.2
Davidson	107.4
Dayton	108.4
Delaware	96.4
Delaware St.	78.2
Denver	90.8
DePaul	104.8
Detroit	97.6
Drake	105.2
Drexel	94.3
Duke	126.2
Duquesne	101.4
East Carolina	96.1
East Tennessee St.	107.7
Eastern Illinois	93.6
Eastern Kentucky	95.4
Eastern Michigan	99.8
Eastern Washington	91.1
Elon	87.9
Evansville	99.0
Fairfield	91.9
Fairleigh Dickinson	93.7
Florida	113.1
Florida A&M	87.4
Florida Atlantic	97.5
Florida Gulf Coast	92.6
Florida Int’l.	97.8
Florida St.	113.7
Fordham	96.3
Fresno St.	109.8
Furman	106.8
Gardner Webb	99.3
George Mason	103.7
George Washington	93.2
Georgetown	106.0
Georgia	104.8
Georgia Southern	104.4
Georgia St.	105.6
Georgia Tech	106.4
Gonzaga	122.6
Grambling	92.8
Grand Canyon	105.8
Green Bay	96.7
Hampton	93.3
Hartford	97.0
Harvard	101.8
Hawaii	98.5
High Point	96.5
Hofstra	108.6
Holy Cross	98.9
Houston	115.2
Houston Baptist	92.8
Howard	89.2
Idaho	86.2
Idaho St.	93.7
Illinois	104.3
Illinois Chicago	95.7
Illinois St.	99.1
Incarnate Word	84.5
Indiana	112.9
Indiana St.	98.7
Iona	95.0
Iowa	114.9
Iowa St.	116.9
IUPUI	98.1
Jackson St.	87.9
Jacksonville	92.7
Jacksonville St.	105.0
James Madison	93.3
Kansas	118.7
Kansas St.	112.6
Kennesaw St.	83.1
Kent St.	102.2
Kentucky	116.9
La Salle	93.0
Lafayette	90.5
Lamar	92.5
Lehigh	101.8
Liberty	108.2
Lipscomb	111.6
Little Rock	95.5
Long Beach St.	97.0
Long Island	94.1
Longwood	95.1
Louisiana	100.3
Louisiana Monroe	103.0
Louisiana Tech	102.2
Louisville	116.5
Loyola (Chi.)	105.9
Loyola (Md.)	92.2
Loyola Marymount	102.7
LSU	115.8
Maine	88.3
Manhattan	86.9
Marist	92.3
Marquette	114.4
Marshall	104.2
Maryland	117.0
Maryland Baltimore Co.	94.0
Maryland Eastern Shore	80.5
Massachusetts	98.4
McNeese St.	89.3
Memphis	107.6
Mercer	98.4
Miami (Fla.)	106.5
Miami (O)	99.5
Michigan	119.6
Michigan St.	124.3
Middle Tennessee	91.2
Milwaukee	93.0
Minnesota	109.5
Mississippi	114.7
Mississippi St.	115.2
Mississippi Valley St.	81.4
Missouri	106.9
Missouri Kansas City	94.0
Missouri St.	96.6
Monmouth	92.1
Montana	104.1
Montana St.	92.9
Morehead St.	93.9
Morgan St.	89.2
Mount St. Mary’s	89.3
Murray St.	111.1
Navy	91.5
Nebraska	117.0
Nevada	116.4
New Hampshire	83.6
New Mexico	98.7
New Mexico St.	109.6
New Orleans	93.0
Niagara	91.1
Nicholls St.	91.7
NJIT	100.7
Norfolk St.	93.2
North Alabama	90.8
North Carolina	119.3
North Carolina A&T	94.5
North Carolina Central	90.1
North Carolina St.	113.9
North Dakota	92.4
North Dakota St.	95.8
North Florida	99.5
North Texas	104.4
Northeastern	105.2
Northern Arizona	90.9
Northern Colorado	96.6
Northern Illinois	102.3
Northern Iowa	96.2
Northern Kentucky	106.1
Northwestern	108.7
Northwestern St.	86.1
Notre Dame	106.8
Oakland	96.3
Ohio	99.5
Ohio St.	112.6
Oklahoma	115.3
Oklahoma St.	106.7
Old Dominion	105.6
Omaha	98.8
Oral Roberts	90.9
Oregon	109.1
Oregon St.	107.8
Pacific	98.3
Penn	104.5
Penn St.	107.2
Pepperdine	98.4
Pittsburgh	108.8
Portland	89.0
Portland St.	89.2
Prairie View	92.3
Presbyterian	97.7
Princeton	101.2
Providence	107.0
Purdue	117.1
Purdue Fort Wayne	96.6
Quinnipiac	93.9
Radford	103.7
Rhode Island	104.3
Rice	93.1
Richmond	96.2
Rider	101.1
Robert Morris	93.8
Rutgers	103.6
Sacramento St.	91.8
Sacred Heart	94.7
Saint Joseph’s	98.9
Saint Louis	106.3
Saint Mary’s	112.1
Saint Peter’s	89.5
Sam Houston St.	97.7
Samford	100.6
San Diego	105.3
San Diego St.	100.9
San Francisco	111.7
San Jose St.	86.0
Santa Clara	98.7
Savannah St.	82.4
Seattle	99.7
Seton Hall	109.8
Siena	93.1
SIU Edwardsville	87.4
SMU	104.2
South Alabama	93.3
South Carolina	104.8
South Carolina St.	87.3
South Dakota	95.2
South Dakota St.	105.7
South Florida	103.7
Southeast Missouri St.	90.6
Southeastern Louisiana	90.3
Southern	85.4
Southern Illinois	100.5
Southern Miss	99.5
Southern Utah	92.8
St. Bonaventure	98.9
St. Francis (Bklyn)	94.6
St. Francis (PA)	94.5
St. John’s	111.6
Stanford	103.4
Stephen F. Austin	92.9
Stetson	85.2
Stony Brook	103.3
Syracuse	112.3
TCU	115.5
Temple	108.5
Tennessee	122.5
Tennessee St.	89.9
Tennessee Tech	87.3
Texas	113.2
Texas A&M	102.5
Texas A&M CC	92.6
Texas Southern	96.2
Texas St.	106.2
Texas Tech	117.1
The Citadel	95.5
Toledo	109.9
Towson	91.0
Troy	98.0
Tulane	90.7
Tulsa	104.2
UAB	100.0
UC Davis	93.1
UC Irvine	104.8
UC Riverside	90.9
UC Santa Barbara	102.4
UCLA	106.5
UMass Lowell	96.3
UNC Asheville	80.1
UNC Greensboro	107.0
UNC Wilmington	94.5
UNLV	100.8
USC	105.1
USC Upstate	88.6
UT Arlington	96.6
UT Martin	88.5
UT Rio Grande Valley	96.8
Utah	103.2
Utah St.	111.2
Utah Valley	104.6
UTEP	92.2
UTSA	97.3
Valparaiso	99.1
Vanderbilt	104.7
Vermont	108.4
Villanova	114.3
Virginia	124.8
Virginia Commonwealth	110.6
Virginia Tech	117.9
VMI	90.5
Wagner	94.3
Wake Forest	101.1
Washington	111.3
Washington St.	97.1
Weber St.	99.9
West Virginia	106.4
Western Carolina	91.3
Western Illinois	91.9
Western Kentucky	103.5
Western Michigan	95.7
Wichita St.	103.7
William & Mary	94.9
Winthrop	101.0
Wisconsin	115.7
Wofford	112.4
Wright St.	101.3
Wyoming	88.0
Xavier	107.0
Yale	107.4
Youngstown St.	91.5

 

Coming Later Today–An updated Bracketology Report

Coming Tuesday Afternoon–Our third and final Fun Stuff For Stats Buffs will attempt to explain the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that the NCAA Selection Committee will use as research criteria for Selection Sunday.

 

 

 

 

 

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—March 2, 2015

For some leagues, the regular season race is now over, and the important next step begins as 13 conference tournaments begin between Tuesday and Saturday. We have listed the pairings for these baker’s dozen following the regular Bracketology report.

We have adjusted our format beginning this week to better show you the seedings from 1 to 16 of our two dozen plus Bracketology experts. The Bubble has greatly contracted, and it is close to impossible to even select a top 10 teams out of the tournament as of today. It is our belief that at most one or two of these last 10 out have any realistic chance of gaining admission to the Dance; in essence, these are mostly top seeds for the NIT.

Actually, the last 5-10 teams in the tournament as of today are the schools that need close watch. Some will secure a bid by continuing a late-season momentum swing to the positive. Some will misfire at the most inappropriate time and seal their fate to the NIT. And, some will become a victim of upsets in conference tournaments that will need to add one to their pot of dance partners. It could happen this week, as both the Missouri Valley and West Coast Conferences would add a dancer should a 3 seed or higher win these tournaments.

Let’s take a look at how our experts seed the 68 teams as of today. Remember, there are 20 or 21 leagues as of today that will definitely send just one team, so we went with the highest rated team in these leagues, highest rating being their NCAA Tournament criteria and not necessarily their conference record. The higher up each team is within each seed, the higher the team ranked.

The 1-Seeds

Kentucky

Virginia

Duke

Villanova

The 2-Seeds

Arizona

Wisconsin

Kansas

Gonzaga

The 3-Seeds

Oklahoma

Maryland

Baylor

Iowa St.

The 4-Seeds

Wichita St.

Utah

Louisville

Notre Dame

The 5-Seeds

Northern Iowa

Arkansas

North Carolina

West Virginia

The 6-Seeds

Butler

SMU

Providence

Georgetown

The 7-Seeds

VCU

San Diego St.

St. John’s

Ohio St.

The 8-seeds

Michigan St.

Indiana

Oklahoma St.

Dayton

The 9-Seeds

Georgia

Xavier

Iowa

LSU

The 10-Seeds

Colorado St.

Oregon

Ole Miss

Cincinnati

The 11-Seeds

Texas A&M

N. C. St.

Boise St.

Tulsa

Purdue

The 12-Seeds

Temple

Davidson

Wofford

Murray St.

Stephen F. Austin

The 13-Seeds

Louisiana Tech

Harvard or Yale

Valparaiso

Iona

The 14-Seeds

UC Davis

Central Michigan

Georgia Southern

Eastern Washington

The 15-Seeds

South Dakota St.

William & Mary

High Point

UNC-Central

The 16-Seeds

Albany

New Mexico St.

Texas Southern

Florida Gulf Coast

Bucknell

St. Francis (NY)

 

Last 10 IN

59 Oregon

60 Ole Miss

61 Cincinnati

62 Texas A&M

63 N. C. St.

64 Boise St.

65 Tulsa

66 Purdue

67 Temple

68 Davidson

 

First 10 OUT

69 BYU

70 Texas

71 Illinois

72 UCLA

73 Stanford

74 Miami (FLA.)

75 Pittsburgh

76 Old Dominion

77 TCU

78 Vanderbilt

 

Opening Round at Dayton

Tulsa vs. Davidson

Temple vs. Purdue

Texas Southern vs. St. Francis (NY)

Florida Gulf Coast vs. Bucknell

 

Sweet 16 if Seeds Held

East Regional

1 Virginia vs. 4 Notre Dame

2 Gonzaga vs. 3 Oklahoma

South Regional

1 Kentucky vs. 4 Louisville

2 Kansas vs. 3 Maryland

Midwest Regional

1 Duke vs. 4 Utah

2 Wisconsin vs. 3 Baylor

West Regional

1 Villanova vs. 4 Wichita St.

2 Arizona vs. 3 Iowa St.

 

Conference Tournament Pairings for Tournaments Commencing This Week

America East Conference Tournament

All Games Played at Lower Seed

Wednesday, March 4

8 Maine 2-14/3-26 @

1 Albany 15-1/21-8

5 Hartford 7-9/14-15 @

4 New Hampshire 11-5/18-11

6 Binghamton 5-11/6-25 @

3 Stony Brook 12-4/21-10

7 UMBC 2-14/6-25 @

2 Vermont 12-4/17-12

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament

All Games Played at Lower Seed

Tuesday, March 3

8 Stetson 3-11/9-21 @

1 North florida 12-2/20-11

5 Lipscomb 7-7/13-16 @

4 Northern Kentucky 7-7/13-16

6 Kennesaw St. 4-10/10-21 @

3 USC Upstate 8-6/21-10

7 Jacksonville 4-10/10-21 @

2 Florida Gulf Coast 11-3/21-9

Big South Conference Tournament

Conway, SC

Wednesday, March 4

8 Presbyterian 6-12/10-21

9 Longwood 5-13/9-22

Winner vs. 1 Charleston Southern 13-5/19-10

4 Winthrop 12-6/17-12

5 Radford 12-6/21-10

6 UNC-Asheville 10-8/14-15

11 Liberty 2-16/8-23

Winner vs. 3 Coastal Carolina 12-6/21-9

7 Gardner-Webb 10-8/18-13

10 Campbell 4-14/10-21

Winner vs. 2 High Point 13-5/22-8

Colonial Conference Tournament

Baltimore

Friday, March 6

8 Elon 6-12/14-17

9 Towson 5-13/12-19

Winner vs. 1 William & Mary 12-6/18-11

4 James Madison 12-6/19-12

5 Hofstra 10-8/19-12

3 Northeastern 12-6/20-11

6 Delaware 9-9/10-19

7 Drexel 9-9/11-18

10 Charleston 3-15/8-23

Winner vs. 2 UNCW 12-6/17-12

Horizon League Conference Tournament

All Games Played at Lower Seed

Tuesday, March 3

8 Youngstown St. 2-14/11-20 @

5 Detroit 7-9/14-17

Winner at 4 Cleveland St. 11-5/17-13

Subsequent winner at 1 Valparaiso 13-3/26-5

7 Wright St. 3-13/11-19 @

6 UIC 4-12/8-23

Winner at Oakland 11-5/16-15

Subsequent winner at 2 Green Bay 12-4/23-7

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament

Albany, NY

Thursday, March 5

8 Siena 7-13/10-19

9 Niagara 7-13/8-21

Winner vs. 1 Iona 17-3/24-7

4 Monmouth 13-7/17-14

5 Canisius 11-9/16-13

6 Quinnipiac 9-11/15-14

11 Marist 5-15/6-24

Winner vs. 3 Manhattan 13-7/17-14

7 St. Peter’s 8-12/14-17

10 Fairfield 5-15/7-23

Winner vs. 2 Rider 15-5/21-10

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament

St. Louis (Arch Madness)

Thursday, March 5

8 Missouri St. 5-13/11-19

9 Southern Illinois 4-14/11-20

Winner vs. 1 Wichita St. 17-1/27-3

4 Illinois St. 11-7/19-11

5 Evansville 9-9/19-11

3 Indiana St. 11-7/15-15

6 Loyola (Chi.) 8-10/18-12

7 Drake 6-12/9-21

10 Bradley 3-15/8-23

Winner vs. 2 Northern Iowa 16-2/27-3

Northeast Conference Tournament

All Games Played at Lower Seed

Wednesday, March 4

8 LIU 8-10/12-17

1 St. Francis (NY) 15-3/21-10

5 St. Francis (PA) 9-9/15-14 @

4 Mt. St. Mary’s 11-7/15-14

6 Sacred Heart 9-9/15-16 @

3 Bryant 12-6/15-14

7 Wagner 8-10/10-19 @

2 Robert Morris 12-6/16-14

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament

Nashville

Wednesday, March 4

5 Morehead St. 10-6/15-16

8 SEMO 7-9/13-16

Winner vs. 4 UT-Martin 10-6/18-11

Subsequent winner vs. 1 Murray St. 16-0/26-4

6 E. Illinois 9-7/16-13

7 SIU-Edwardsville 8-8/12-15

Winner vs. 3 Belmont 11-5/19-10

Subsequent winner vs. 2 Eastern Kentucky 11-5/19-10

Patriot League Tournament

All Games Played at Lower Seed

Tuesday, March 3

9 Loyola (MD) 7-11/11-18 @

8 Holy Cross 8-10/13-15

Winner at 1 Bucknell 13-5/18-13

5 Boston U 9-9/13-16 @

4 Lafayette 9-9/17-12

6 American 8-10/15-15 @

3 Lehigh 10-8/15-13

10 Army 6-12/15-14 @

7 Navy 8-10/12-18

Winner at 2 Colgate 12-6/15-16

Southern Conference Tournament

Asheville, NC

Friday, March 6

8 UNCG 6-12/10-21

9 Samford 6-12/13-18

Winner vs. 1 Wofford 16-2/25-6

4 Western Carolina 9-9/14-16

5 East Tennessee 8-10/16-13

3 Mercer 12-6/17-14

6 VMI 7-11/11-18

7 Citadel 6-12/11-18

10 Furman 5-13/8-21

Winner vs. 2 Chattanooga 15-3/22-9

Summit League Tournament

Sioux Falls, SD

Saturday, March 7

1 South Dakota St. 12-4/21-9

8 Western Illinois 3-13/8-19

4 IPFW 9-7/16-13

5 South Dakota 9-7/16-15

3 Oral Roberts 10-6/17-13

6 IUPUI 6-10/10-20

2 North Dakota St. 12-4/20-9

7 Denver 6-10/12-17

West Coast Conference Tournament

Las Vegas

Friday, March 6

8 San Francisco 7-11/13-17

9 Pacific 4-14/12-18

Winner vs. 1 Gonzaga 17-1/29-2

4 Pepperdine 10-8/17-12

5 San Diego 8-10 15-15

3 St. Mary’s 13-5/21-8

6 Portland 7-11/16-14

7 Santa Clara 7-11/13-17

10 Loyola Marymount 4-14/8-22

Winner vs. 2 BYU 13-5/23-8

 

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—February 23, 2015

And down the stretch they come! By the end of this week, the first conference tournament brackets will be finalized, and by the end of the following week, the rest of the leagues will follow suit.

Not a lot changed last week, but there has been subtle updates to the field of 68. Without further adieu, let’s take a look at the 1-bid leagues first. Here are the contenders for each of these low-major leagues, with the highest rated team displaying their predicted seed if they win their conference tournament (conference championship in Ivy).

America East	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Albany	13-1	19-8	16 *
Vermont	11-3	16-11
Stony Brook	11-4	19-10
New Hampshire	11-4	17-10
Atlantic Sun	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Florida Gulf Coast	11-1	21-7	15
North Florida	10-2	18-11
USC Upstate	7-5	20-9
Big Sky	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Sacramento St.	12-3	18-8
Montana	12-3	16-10
Eastern Washington	11-3	20-7	14
Northern Arizona	10-4	15-12
Portland St.	8-7	14-11
Big South	Conf.	Overall	Seed
High Point	12-4	21-7	15
Charleston Southern	12-4	18-9
Coastal Carolina	11-5	20-8
Radford	11-5	20-9
Winthrop	11-5	16-11
Gardner-Webb	9-7	17-12
UNC Asheville	9-7	13-14
Big West	Conf.	Overall	Seed
UC Davis	11-1	21-4	14
UC Irvine	9-3	16-10
UC Santa Barbara	7-5	14-12
Long Beach St.	7-5	13-15
UC Riverside	7-6	14-13
Colonial	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Northeastern	11-5	19-10	15
William & Mary	11-5	17-10
James Madison	11-5	18-11
UNC Wilmington	11-5	16-11
Hofstra	9-7	18-11
Conference USA	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Louisiana Tech	12-3	21-7	13
UTEP	11-3	19-7
UAB	11-4	15-13
Old Dominion	9-5	20-6
Western Kentucky	9-5	16-10
Middle Tennessee	8-7	15-13
UT San Antonio	7-7	13-12
North Texas	7-7	13-13
Horizon	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Valparaiso	12-2	25-4	12
Cleveland St.	11-4	17-12
Green Bay	10-4	21-7
Oakland	10-4	15-14
Milwaukee	7-7	12-16
Ivy	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Harvard	9-1	19-5	12
Yale	8-2	19-8
Metro Atlantic	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Iona	16-2	23-6	13
Rider	13-5	19-10
Monmouth	12-6	16-13
Manhattan	11-6	14-12
Canisius	10-8	15-12
Mid-American	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Central Michigan	10-4	20-5	14
Kent State	10-4	19-8
Toledo	10-4	18-9
Bowling Green	9-5	17-8
Buffalo	8-6	17-9
Akron	8-6	17-10
Mid-Eastern	Conf.	Overall	Seed
North Carolina Central	13-0	21-6	16
Norfolk St	10-3	17-11
UM-Eastern Shore	9-5	16-13
Howard	8-5	14-13
Delaware St.	7-5	13-14
Hampton	7-6	11-15
South Carolina St.	7-6	10-18
Northeast	Conf.	Overall	Seed
St. Francis (NY)	14-2	20-9	16 *
Mt. St. Mary’s	10-6	14-13
Robert Morris	10-6	14-14
Bryant	10-6	13-14
St. Francis (PA)	8-8	14-13
LIU Brooklyn	8-8	12-15
Wagner	8-8	10-17
Ohio Valley	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Murray St.	14-0	24-4	13
Belmont	10-5	18-10
Tenn-Martin	9-5	17-10
Eastern Kentucky	8-5	16-10
Eastern Illinois	9-6	16-12
Morehead St.	7-6	12-16
SIU-Edwardsville	8-7	12-14
Patriot	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Bucknell	12-4	17-12	16 *
Colgate	10-6	13-16
Lehigh	9-7	15-12
Lafayette	8-8	16-11
Boston University	8-8	12-15
Southern	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Wofford	14-2	23-6	12
Chattanooga	13-3	20-9
Mercer	11-5	16-13
East Tennessee St.	8-8	16-11
Western Carolina	8-8	13-15
Southland	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Sam Houston St.	13-1	22-5	13
Stephen F. Austin	12-1	22-4
Northwestern St.	10-4	15-10
Texas A&M-CC	9-5	14-12
Southwestern	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Texas Southern	11-2	14-12	16 *
Prairie View	8-5	10-16
Jackson St.	7-7	9-18
Summit	Conf.	Overall	Seed
South Dakota St.	12-3	21-8	15
North Dakota St.	12-3	20-8
IPFW	8-6	15-12
Oral Roberts	8-6	15-13
South Dakota	8-6	15-14
Sun Belt	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Georgia Southern	12-4	19-6	14
Georgia St.	12-4	19-8
UL Monroe	12-4	18-9
UL Lafayette	10-7	16-12
UT-Arlington	9-7	15-11
Western Ath.	Conf.	Overall	Seed
New Mexico St.	11-1	19-10	16
CSU Bakersfield	7-5	12-16
UMKC	6-5	11-17
Seattle	6-6	13-13
Note: Asterisk (*) indicates opening round participant

Here is how our expert bracketologists see the multi-bid conferences as of today.

American	Conf.	Overall	Seed
SMU	13-2	22-5	6
Tulsa	12-2	19-7	Bubble
Temple	10-5	19-9	11
Cincinnati	9-5	18-9	10
Memphis	9-5	17-10	Out
Connecticut	8-6	15-11	Out
Atlantic Coast	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Virginia	13-1	25-1	1
Notre Dame	12-3	24-4	3
Duke	11-3	24-3	1
Louisville	9-5	21-6	4
North Carolina	9-5	19-8	4
Pittsburgh	7-7	18-10	Bubble
Miami (FL)	7-7	17-10	Bubble
N. C. St.	7-7	16-11	11
Atlantic 10	Conf.	Overall	Seed
VCU	11-3	21-6	5
Rhode Island	11-3	19-6	Bubble
Dayton	10-4	20-6	11
Davidson	10-4	19-6	Bubble
UMass	9-5	16-11	Bubble
Richmond	8-6	15-12	Out
George Washington	7-7	17-10	Bubble
St. Bonaventure	7-7	14-11	Out
La Salle	7-7	15-12	Out
Big East	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Villanova	12-2	25-2	2
Georgetown	10-5	18-8	7
Providence	9-5	19-8	6
Butler	9-5	19-8	6
Xavier	8-7	18-10	8
St. John’s	7-7	18-9	9
Big Ten	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Wisconsin	13-1	25-2	2
Maryland	10-4	22-5	4
Michigan St	10-4	19-8	7
Purdue	10-4	18-9	11
Indiana	9-6	19-9	8
Ohio State	8-6	19-8	8
Iowa	8-6	17-10	9
Illinois	7-7	17-10	12
Michigan	7-8	14-13	Out
Minnesota	5-10	16-12	Bubble
Big 12	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Kansas	11-3	22-5	2
Iowa State	10-4	20-6	3
Oklahoma	10-5	19-8	3
West Virginia	9-5	21-6	6
Baylor	8-6	20-7	4
Oklahoma St	7-8	17-10	7
Texas	6-8	17-10	10
Kansas St	6-9	13-15	Out
TCU	3-11	16-11	Bubble
Missouri Valley	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Northern Iowa	15-1	26-2	5
Wichita St.	15-1	25-3	5
Mountain West	Conf.	Overall	Seed
San Diego St	12-3	22-6	7
Wyoming	10-4	21-6	Out
Boise State	10-4	20-7	Bubble
Colorado St	10-5	23-5	9
Utah State	9-5	16-10	Out
Pac-12	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Arizona	12-2	24-3	2
Utah	11-3	21-5	3
Oregon	10-5	20-8	11
Stanford	8-6	17-9	12
Oregon St	8-7	17-10	Out
UCLA	8-7	16-12	Bubble
Arizona St	7-7	15-12	Bubble
Southeastern	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Kentucky	14-0	27-0	1
Arkansas	11-3	22-5	5
Texas A&M	10-4	19-7	10
Ole Miss	10-4	19-8	8
LSU	8-6	19-8	10
Georgia	8-6	17-9	9
Florida	6-8	13-14	Bubble
West Coast	Conf.	Overall	Seed
Gonzaga	16-0	28-1	1
Saint Mary’s	12-4	20-7	Out
BYU	11-5	21-8	Bubble

Here is the bubble–last 10 in and first 14 out.

Last 10 In	#
Texas A&M	59
Cincinnati	60
LSU	61
Dayton	62
N. C. St.	63
Temple	64
Purdue	65
Oregon	66
Stanford	67
Illinois	68
1st 14 Out	#
Tulsa	69
Pittsburgh	70
Boise St.	71
UCLA	72
Davidson	73
BYU	74
Miami (FL)	75
Florida	76
U Mass	77
Minnesota	78
Arizona St.	79
TCU	80
Rhode Island	81
George Washington	82

Here are the Opening Round participants to play at Dayton.

Opening Round Games (Dayton)
11	Oregon vs.
11	Purdue
12	Stanford vs.
12	Illinois
16	Albany vs.
16	St. Francis (NY)
16	Bucknell vs.
16	Texas Southern

And, here are the top four seeds by region.

Top 4 Seeds By Region
East	Team
1	Virginia
2	Kansas
3	Iowa St.
4	Maryland
South	Team
1	Kentucky
2	Arizona
3	Oklahoma
4	Louisville
Midwest	Team
1	Duke
2	Villanova
3	Utah
4	Baylor
West	Team
1	Gonzaga
2	Wisconsin
3	Notre Dame
4	North Carolina

College Basketball and The Shot Clock

Imagine that you just purchased a very special smart phone from Honest Abe’s Electronics.  In point of fact, Honest Abe’s is located in the outer reaches of the Twilight Zone.

You attempt to text your special girl that you are on your way to meet her to go to the football game, but when you hit the “send” button, a flash of white light envelopes your body, and you are temporarily unable to see your surroundings.

Then, as if a flash of the camera has passed, you find that you have been transported to a parallel universe almost identical to the Earth, but with one difference.  You have been dropped in a 50-yard line seat at what appears to be a college football stadium you do not recognize.  A game program is in your hand telling you that you are at Tech Stadium ready to watch Tech play State.

As you read, you discover that both teams are 9-0.  The winner will advance to the Asteroid Bowl to face the tough Tigers team that is also 9-0 with one game to play.

“Great!” you think to yourself, and things couldn’t get any better when the college coeds sitting adjacent to you look like clones of Hannah Davis and Kate Upton, except their attire is a little outdated.  If you didn’t know any better, you would swear with those sweaters and bobby socks, they are trying to look like coeds from 1950’s America.

Somehow, you find a way to focus your attention on the football field.  The game kicks off at the 40-yard line, and the kicker punches it straight through with a steel-toed kicking shoe, much like was used in the 1950’s in America.

The kick sails 50 yards to the 10-yard line, and it is returned 18 yards to the 28, where State begins the first drive of the game.

Quickly, you cannot believe your eyes when Tech’s defense sure looks like the Wide Tackle 6 formation; you remember that your grandfather told you all about how he had played defensive guard.  As you chuckle quietly, you almost choke when State comes to the line in the Split-T formation.  On the first play, the State QB slides down the line and hands off to the right halfback on a straight-hitting dive play that picks up two yards.

After getting eight yards in three antiquated running plays, State punts, and Tech returns the ball to their 38 yard line.  Then, you notice something funny.  No substitutions were made in any of these plays since the kickoff.  Even the Tech kicker stayed in the game as a defensive halfback, if that’s what they called the position before there were cornerbacks.

Quickly, you realize that this parallel universe is a type of “Pleasantville.”  The 1950’s never ended, and for a second as you glance at your two new friends sitting either side of you, you realize something.  College football in the 1950’s may have sounded incredible when Gramps told you about the big games, but compared to today’s brand of football, it was as boring as watching the paint dry on the picket fence.  Thank goodness the NCAA made several rules’ changes between 1955 and 2014.

Eventually, Tech scores a touchdown to win the game 6-0, as the kicker shanked the point after.  The game ends, and you cannot wait to get out and look for the Marilyn Monroe and Kim Novak lookalikes that must exist in this place.

As you leave the stadium, a paper flies out of the wooden press box above.  It is a page of the stats for the game.

There were 120 total plays from scrimmage, of which 108 were running plays and 12 were passing plays.  The teams combined to complete five of the 12 pass attempts for 60 total yards through the air.  The 108 rushing attempts led to 350 rushing yards.  Tech won the game by holding onto the ball for the last eight minutes in a long drive that went from their 15 yard line to the State 30.

You notice that even though there were three opportunities for State to attempt field goals of 20-30 yards, the State coach never considered it.  Because there are limited substitutions in this brand of 1950’s college football, kicking specialists do not exist.  The State kicker is none other than one of the inside linebacker/offensive guards.

As you wish you were back in the 21^st Century watching college football with 160 scrimmage plays, 80-100 passing plays, and more than 1,000 yards of offense, the white light comes from out of nowhere, and you are holding onto the hand of your girl, as you enter a 100,000-seat stadium to watch a game that could decide whether your favorite team will stay in the hunt for a college playoff spot.

This sounds impossible, correct?  Of course, it is, since Rod Serling is no longer around.  However, if you are a college basketball fan, you have been transported back to the equivalent of college football in the 1950’s, even if you didn’t see the white flash.

Yes, college basketball in 2015 is your parallel universe where all the exciting action has been taken out of the game.  Like the drastic change in total possessions between college football in 1954 and 2014, basketball has gone the opposite way with about 25 fewer possessions per game than 40-50 years ago.  And, the game has suffered immensely.

The average college basketball team today plays at a pace of 65 possessions per game.  Let’s take a look at the real past.  The statistics I am about to give you are not 100% exact, because certain data does not exist that can be used to make the data 100% accurate.  However, we can obtain a close approximation to possessions per game by looking at the statistics we do have.

In case you do not know, you can estimate college basketball possessions with great accuracy by using this formula:

FGA + (.465 * FTA) + TO – OR

Where FGA = field goal attempts, FTA = free throw attempts, TO = turnovers, and OR = offensive rebounds.

For example, if a team averages 52 field goal attempts, 22 free throw attempts, 13 turnovers, and 10 offensive rebounds per game, you can estimate their possessions per game by performing the easy math.

52 + (.465 * 22) + 13 – 10 = 65 possessions (rounded to the nearest whole number), which is about what the average is today in college basketball.

Many of you reading this know that at one time, I missed fewer than a half-dozen Vanderbilt University home basketball games between December 1963 and March of 2001.  It took 6 inches of snow and ice or a fever of 102 or more to keep me away.  Only a 2001 relocation to Colorado ended the streak.  When we returned to Nashville in time for the 2003-04 season, we did not buy tickets, as it was apparent that Vanderbilt would commence using the Princeton offense and its insomnia-curing style of play.  This style of play continued for a few years, but even when the Commodores switched offenses, the game as a whole had become too dull to warrant spending the money and time to attend the games.

The period between 1963-64 and 1975-76 were incredible for a Commodore season ticket holder, as Memorial Gymnasium was an even bigger 6^th man for the home team than Cameron Indoor Stadium has been for Duke in the last 30 years.

Coach Roy Skinner did not believe in slow-paced basketball.  Reared in Kentucky, he believed in the principles of Adolph Rupp, and he produced basketball teams that lent themselves to sellouts.  The gym sold out for the season before Thanksgiving, in a time when the first games of the season were not played until the first Monday in December.

Two remodels brought the capacity of Memorial Gym to 15,626, and through the first half of the 1970’s, Vandy’s actual attendance at most games surpassed that amount.  More than one time, the city’s fire marshall, a VU fan himself, had to clear the aisles when those without a seat but with a ticket (often a student) tried to stake a claim and create a dangerous situation.

Why was Memorial Gym so packed, and why did Vanderbilt routinely win 90% of its home games in those days?  There are multiple reasons.  First, Vanderbilt was a perennial national power in the Skinner days.  In 17 seasons, his Vanderbilt squad only once finished with a losing record (still that 12-14 team defeated a 16-0 Kentucky team), and they finished with a losing SEC conference record just twice (6-8 and 8-10).  Skinner retired when his final team finished 12-6 in the SEC, which was considered a major disappointment.

The other reason for the sellouts, which is much more valid, is that Vanderbilt was one of 20-30 college teams that played up-tempo ball for 40 minutes every game.  80-point games were considered subpar performances.  It was routine to go to Memorial Gym and see the Commodores beat a name team 95-85.  Skinner did not schedule low and mid major opponents.  No, he routinely scheduled top 20 teams like North Carolina, Duke, Davidson, (when Davidson was an elite school similar to Gonzaga today), Kansas, St, John’s, Illinois, and SMU (when SMU was the Kentucky of the old Southwest Conference).

A typical game under a Skinner-coached Vanderbilt team found the Commodores with a stat line that looked like this:

FGA = 75, FTA = 30, TO = 18, OR = 16

Do the math, and you come to 91 possessions per game.  This is not just a typical stat line for one game; this is typical of an entire season.

In some games, like against Kentucky, North Carolina, or LSU, the number of possessions exceeded 100.  One night, I watched the Commodores approach 120 possessions in a game against Ole Miss (Vanderbilt scored 130 that night).

The average would be brought down because Vandy had three conference opponents that notoriously slowed the game down in most years.  Auburn used the shuffle offense and frequently held the ball for 45 seconds to a minute before shooting.  Remember, there was no shot clock in those days.

Until Ken Rosemond recruited beefy Bob Lienhard to Athens, Georgia also held the ball against teams like Vandy and Kentucky.  They outright stalled.

By far, the number one enemy of Vanderbilt fans was Tennessee coach Ray Mears.  Prior to the days where he recruited Ernie Grunfeld and Bernard King to Knoxville, Mears was a proponent of deliberate offense and a 1-3-1 trapping zone defense that led to “snoozeball,” for all but the orange-clad fans.

Take away the six games per year against Auburn, Georgia, and Tennessee, and Vanderbilt averaged about 100 possessions per game and 90 points per game.  This was without a shot clock or three-point shot.  Because the Commodores had outstanding guards that could shoot from 20 feet out, it is possible that 8-10 of their made shots per game would count as three-pointers today.  Add the shot clock into the equation, and you are looking at a program that would have averaged 100 points per game had the three slow-paced teams been forced to play with a shot clock.

Now, let’s look at a typical Tennessee team under Mears before the Ernie and Bernie show matriculated from the Empire State.  I will use the 1968-69 team, because I have their stats, and I have become a sort of friend with one of the players on that team, who lives just a jump shot away from me today.

That boring Volunteer team finished second in the SEC with a 13-5 conference record and 21-7 record overall, finishing third in the NIT, which in those days meant you were a top 20 team.

That Vol squad had a scoring margin of 67-58 in a college basketball environment when about 150 points per game was an average total.  This means the average total score in a UT game was about 17 percent below the national average, and about 33% below the average score of a Vanderbilt game that season.

Tennessee’s average possessions can be estimated thusly:

(56 FGA + (.465 * 20 FTA) + 14 TO – 11 OR = 68 possessions.

Remember, these stats came in a year with no shot clock, so teams could hold onto the ball for more than 35 seconds, even a minute if they could hold onto the ball.

Teams like Tennessee and their slow-paced style of play angered fans and coaches of other teams to the point where dozens of coaches and sportswriters, and thousands of fans clamored for a shot-clock.  Yes, those 68 possessions per game were a travesty then, as fans felt like they did not receive their money’s worth.  For what it’s worth, a college basketball ticket in 1968-69 at Memorial Gym went for $8, which had risen from $6 to help pay off the bill for the recent gymnasium expansion.  Today, 68 possessions in a game is above-average!

Put a 1968-69 college basketball fan in that Twilight Zone and transport him to the present day college basketball environment, and he will feel like you felt when you were taken to the parallel universe to watch that 6-0 football game.

Today’s college basketball with its 65 possessions per team per game pales in comparison to the brand of basketball played in the 1960’s and 1970’s when an average team played at a 80-90 possession per game pace.

The basketball purist believes that the rules should not be tinkered with, but I will counter that by saying that college basketball rules have continually been tinkered with through the decades, so basketball purity demands rules changes when they are needed.

The three-point shot and shot clock took basketball to new heights when they were instituted in the 1980’s, as in the early part of that decade, the game became stagnant with low-scoring games and some important games ending with the winning team not even scoring 40 points.

The shot-clock started at 45 seconds before moving to 35 seconds like it is today.  There is talk about trying a 30-second clock in this year’s NIT.  A few basketball experts support the 24-second clock like the NBA.

If you know me, you know I am a baseball sabermetrician.  I am into sports metrics and participate actively in sabermetric endeavors.

I can bore you with a lengthy treatise to show you exactly when a baseball manager should call for a sacrifice bunt attempt and when he should not.  I can tell you mathematically how to determine the efficiency a base stealer must have in order to help his team by trying to steal a base in every possible situation.

For basketball, I can also show you what changing the shot clock from 35 to 30 and to 24 seconds would do to total possessions per game and then make an assumption or two to refine what the math shows us.

In recent weeks, I have looked at tapes of numerous college games.  I had to take stimulants to stay awake through these boring dribblethons that led to teams getting anywhere from 52 to 69 possessions.  I tried to limit my monitoring to Top 20 teams, so I watched Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, and others.

What I was looking for was the percentage of possessions where a shot was taken with five seconds or less on the shot clock.  Obviously, if the shot clock were reduced to 30 seconds per possession rather than 35, then these would be the possessions affected the most (there would be a secondary adjustment that I will not bore you with).

I found over the course of about 200 total games that on average in 2015, a college team will shoot the ball, turn the ball over, or draw a foul in the final five seconds of the shot clock about 18% of the time.  If we postulate that these 12 possessions per team per game now took exactly five fewer seconds due to the shot clock moving from 35 to 30 seconds, then you can estimate that the total number of possessions per team per game would rise slightly from 65 to 71 possessions per game.  This would represent merely a modest gain of 9% additional possessions.

What if we went all the way and tried a 24-second clock?  I have not had the opportunity to look at enough games to establish a pattern, but from the three dozen games I have charted this year, about 69% of all possessions exceed 24 seconds.  This includes offensive rebounds with immediate shots, turnovers, and fouls before 24 seconds elapsed, meaning that almost all other possessions used more than 24 seconds.

This would definitely change the game.  If you postulate that all the current possessions in excess of 24 seconds all of a sudden took a maximum of 24 seconds, then the number of total possessions per team per game would head north almost back to where it was in the 1970’s, when college basketball was definitely much more exciting to watch than it is today.

College football is up-tempo, and it is just behind the NFL in popularity.  College basketball is not there.  A 24-second clock would bring the excitement back, as teams would not be able to walk the ball up the floor and then dribble around the perimeter for 30 seconds.  It would be a team game once again with much less dribbling and much more passing and movement of players.  Time would not allow such stagnation as we see in today’s basketball game, where the players without the ball should be forced to purchase a ticket to enter the arena.

Let me address one additional item.  I have heard uninformed basketball fans make the claim that a 24-second clock would put an end to upsets and teams like Butler making deep runs in the NCAA Tournament and would leave teams like Kentucky and Duke in control of the sport.

This is bogus.  First, let’s look at Kentucky today.  The Wildcats average just 63 possessions per game, and they are dominating.  It is my belief, as well as the belief of others with higher basketball intelligence that if they are to be defeated this season, it will come from a team that speeds up the tempo and forces the Cats into enough turnovers to overcome the dominant rebounding the Blue Mist has.

Mathematically, in a game with limited possessions, there will be a lower standard deviation of points scored per possession.  The dominant team actually has a better mathematical chance of winning over the lesser-talented team.  In a game with higher possessions, the standard deviation of points scored per possession rises as well.  Definitely, there is a chance for a larger blowout win by the superior team, but there is also a greater chance that the dominant team will be off enough to fall to the opponent.

The up-tempo game may allow a Kentucky to beat an Auburn by 45 points rather than 10-15, but in the low-possession game, Kentucky may have a 97% chance of winning, while in the high-possession game, they may only have a 90% chance of winning.

What’s that?  Did I hear you asking me if a regular season college basketball game has ever been played using a 24-second clock?  The answer to that is, “Yes!”

There has been one regular season college game played with a 24-second clock, unfortunately more than 50 years ago. And, where was this college game played using said 24-second shot clock?  At none other than Memorial Gymnasium at Vanderbilt University under Coach Roy Skinner, Vanderbilt played Baylor in March of 1959 using an experimental 24-second clock.  The Bears led by double digits with less than 10 minutes to play, and in those days, a lead like this would have been nearly impossible to overcome in the time remaining.  However, with BU limited to just 24-seconds per possession, they could not freeze the ball.  Vanderbilt came back and won by a point on a jump shot from the top of the key in the closing seconds.

Imagine a college game where the teams cannot afford to dribble walk the ball up the floor for nine seconds.  Imagine teams unable to walk the ball up the floor and then dribble around the perimeter for a combined 25 seconds.  Imagine more teams utilizing full-court pressure to force opponents into using up 1/3 of a 24-second shot clock.  This will lead to basketball with 80-100 possessions once again.  With the three-point shot and 90 possessions per team per game, many teams will approach 100 points per game, and the truly great defensive teams will be great because they will score off their defense and force teams into .75 points per possession.

Individually, you will see a lot more double-doubles and even more triple doubles.  If a player averages 16 points and 8 rebounds today in a 65-possession environment, then he should produce close to 22 points and 11 rebounds per game in a 90-possession environment.

Back to Kentucky of 2015: the Wildcats are undefeated, but they are not in the same level of superiority as the UCLA teams of the 1960’s and 1970’s.  This team has liabilities that can be exploited by other teams.  We believe UK will not win the national championship this year if the right team shows up in their bracket.

What type of team can topple Kentucky in the Big Dance?  It will be a team that can run up and down the floor and score points before Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Dakari Johnson can get there to alter the shots.  It will be a team that can run up and down the floor possession after possession to wear down the Cats’ big men, who have not yet been forced to play extended minutes at an accelerated pace. It will be the team that defensively can get in the passing lanes and steal passes and turn them into fast-break points.  We believe that the team that beats Kentucky will do so by forcing the tempo to a minimum of a 70-possession plus game.

Looking at some of the teams with good talent and an ability to play at a quicker pace, Iowa St., West Virginia, and North Carolina stand out as teams with enough talent to pull off a 70-possession pace against Kentucky.  Arizona and Duke could potentially play at that pace, but defensively neither can force Kentucky to speed up.

We do not believe that teams with paces similar to Kentucky can pull off the upset.  Virginia and Wisconsin would have to beat Kentucky by playing to the Wildcats’ strengths, and that does not look like a probable way to beat the Wildcats.

Speaking of the NCAA Tournament, be sure to return to this website Monday, February 16, after 1 PM Eastern Standard Time, to see our latest installment of our Terrific Two Dozen plus accurate bracketologists.  We bring together the most accurate bracketologists in the nation and form a composite master bracketology list to show you if your team needs to buy dancing shows or a new TV.  Forget the famous guys on the three and four-letter networks.  Our bracketologists historically fare much better in accuracy than the guys you may know.

Now, to the PiRate Ratings for this weekend’s top games.  Remember, these are first-year ratings, and we consider them to be experimental.  We use three separate algorithms incorporating basketball’s “four factors” and adjust the data for strength of schedule and home court advantage.  The PiRate Red and PiRate White are hitting close to 80% winners so far, while the PiRate Blue is lagging behind around 70%.  Unlike our football ratings, these ratings cannot be used to pick games against the spread, as they are set up only to pick the winner.  Yes, we supply a point-spread for each game, but the key part of this experimental rating is to try to work our way into picking a successful bracket come NCAA Tournament time.

Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Saturday, February 14
Kentucky	South Carolina	23	19	16
Virginia	Wake Forest	22	18	21
Gonzaga	Pepperdine	24	20	15
Syracuse	Duke	-10	-6	-7
Butler	Villanova	-3	-1	2
Kansas	Baylor	11	7	7
Louisville	N. C. St.	16	12	11
Pittsburgh	North Carolina	-14	-7	-8
Iowa St.	West Virginia	4	6	2
Illinois St.	Wichita St.	-10	-3	-10
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	-10	-8	-3
Penn St.	Maryland	-7	-1	-6
G W U	V C U	-5	-3	-2
T C U	Oklahoma St.	-6	-3	-5
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-1	1	3
Ole Miss	Arkansas	1	4	5
S M U	Connecticut	8	6	10
Clemson	Virginia Tech	13	8	9
Georgia	Auburn	18	13	12
Georgia Tech	Florida St.	10	7	2
Tennessee	L S U	-1	-1	-4
Missouri	Mississippi St.	-2	2	-5
Texas A&M	Florida	2	3	7
Texas	Texas Tech	19	16	21
Alabama	Vanderbilt	2	4	12
Sunday, February 15
Wisconsin	Illinois	19	15	13
Washington St.	Arizona	-28	-16	-17
Utah	California	16	19	10
Missouri St.	Northern Iowa	-27	-11	-15
Northwestern	Iowa	-11	-6	-7
Purdue	Nebraska	12	9	10
Boston College	Miami (FL)	-4	-1	3
Indiana	Minnesota	3	5	8

2013 Big 12 Conference Preview

2013 Big 12 Conference Preview

 

Once thought a dead league, the Big 12 received a reprieve and has thrived these last two years.  The league produced a Heisman Trophy winner in 2011, and placed nine of its ten members in bowls last year.  In 2013, it could produce a National Championship Game participant.

 

This league remains stable this year after the departures of Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, and Texas A&M, and the arrivals of TCU and West Virginia in the last two seasons.  The nine-game conference schedule guarantees that all two-team ties are easily broken without having to use several tiebreakers.

 

Coach Mack Brown welcomes back to Texas the most experience squad he’s ever fielded in Austin.  The Longhorns had to rebuild for a couple of years, but they are poised to go on a big run this year with 19 starters returning to the first team offense and defense.  The Longhorns will be a juggernaut on the offensive side of the ball.  Even though their defense might give up 24 points per game, the offense should average more than 40 and outscore every opponent on the regular season schedule.

 

Three years in a row:  That’s the current streak in Stillwater, Oklahoma, for Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys.  OSU has averaged in excess of 40 points per game three years running (and passing), and the pokes should make it four in a row with the return of quarterback Clint Chelf and most of his key receivers.  Can an offense that has improved its total yardage output per game from 520 to 546 to 547 in the last three seasons improve yet again?  Yes, it can top 550 this year, and OSU could even challenge the 50 points per game barrier.  The key game is at Texas on November 16, and it could be the big one of the season.

 

TCU may have as much talent this year as they had in 2010, when the Horned Frogs ran the table in the Mountain West Conference and won the Rose Bowl.  However, in this year’s Big 12, they are no better than third best and possibly fourth best.  The defense could lead the conference in fewest points and yards allowed, but this is a league where offense rules.  The Horned Frogs averaged 27.2 points per game in league play, and that was good enough for only eighth best in the league.  That number will have to jump by a touchdown if TCU is to challenge the two powers.  It doesn’t help that they must play Oklahoma St. and Texas in back-to-back weeks in October.  Additionally, they face Oklahoma in Norman, and TCU figures to be an underdog in all three games.  Throw in an opening game against LSU at Cowboys Stadium, and it looks like a four-loss season in Ft. Worth.

 

Oklahoma has endured back-to-back three loss seasons, and the Sooners may be looking at another one as well.  The defense must reload with the loss of four of the top five tacklers, including the top run defender and the top pass defender.  The OU offense may take a small step backward this year, as it lost its starting quarterback and top two receivers.  Fret not Sooner fans, for you rebuilding means averaging 30 points and 425 yards per game.

 

Baylor looks for its fourth consecutive winning season under Art Briles.  The Bears survived the loss of RGIII and Kendall Wright and emerged with eight victories in 2012.  Bryce Petty is the new quarterback, and he should top 4,000 yards passing in his first year as a starter.  The Bears return two backs capable of topping 1,000 yards rushing, but the offensive line needs reworking.  Baylor will score a lot of points again this season, but the defense will give up a lot of points as well.  It will be very exciting in Waco, but this unit will just scrape by with enough wins to stay above .500.

 

Kansas St. will be lucky to stay bowl eligible this year after the defense left the building.  Six of the top seven tacklers must be replaced on the defense, and the offense must replace Collin Klein at quarterback.  Coach Bill Snyder relies on a lot of junior college talent, so his teams frequently have a lot of upperclassmen.  Thanks to a schedule that gives the Wildcats three guaranteed non-conference wins to start the season, KSU should find a way to stay bowl eligible.

 

Texas Tech breaks in a new head coach, as former Red Raider quarterback Kliff Kingsbury returns to Lubbock after running the offense of Johnny Football U in College Station last year.  Kingsbury will return the Red Raiders to the Air Raid offense after former coach Tommy Tuberville tried to make TTU Auburn west.  Look for the offense to struggle a bit and fall under .500 this year, but Kingsbury will soon have the Red Raiders scoring points like they did under Mike Leach.

 

West Virginia has a bigger rebuilding job to face than Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers cannot replace Geno Smith and his 4200+ yards and TD/Int ratio of 42/6!  Add the losses of two receivers that both grabbed more than 100 passes and combined for more than 2,900 receiving yards and 37 touchdowns, and the Mountaineers will see their offense fall by more than 10 points per game this year.  This team only went 7-6 last year, so hopes for a winning season are very dim in 2013.

 

Paul Rhoads has done great work at Iowa St., leading the Cyclones to three bowls in his four seasons in Ames.  If he can squeeze six wins out of this team, then the NCAA needs to name the National Coach of the Year Award, the Rhoads Award.  ISU must rebuild on both sides of the ball, and with this conference’s offensive fireworks, it could get ugly several Saturdays this fall.  Of the bottom four teams, ISU hosts Kansas, but must play at Texas Tech and West Virginia.  Expect at least nine and possibly ten losses this year.

 

Kansas has nowhere to go but up.  Since going 12-1 with an Orange Bowl win in 2007, the Jayhawks have seen their win number drop every year since then (8, 7, 5, 3, 2, and 1).  While it is still mathematically possible that the number could drop again, we don’t see that happening.  Second year coach Charlie Weis should find a way to lead KU to a very modest improvement and put an end to the 21-game losing streak in league play.

 

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Big 12 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Texas	0-0	0-0	127.3	116.2	127.8
Oklahoma St.	0-0	0-0	122.0	111.2	122.7
T C U	0-0	0-0	118.0	115.1	118.9
Oklahoma	0-0	0-0	115.8	111.6	115.2
Baylor	0-0	0-0	112.5	103.2	112.4
Kansas St.	0-0	0-0	111.9	104.5	110.8
Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	104.1	96.6	102.9
West Virginia	0-0	0-0	102.1	97.4	101.1
Iowa St.	0-0	0-0	99.7	92.8	98.3
Kansas	0-0	0-0	93.9	91.5	92.8
League Averages			110.7	104.0	110.3

 

2013 Official Preseason Media Poll

Pos	Team	Points	1st Place
1	Oklahoma St.	365	15
2	Oklahoma	355	8
3	T C U	347	9
4	Texas	337	8
5	Baylor	282	2
6	Kansas St.	240	1
7	Texas Tech	161	0
8	West Virginia	126	0
9	Iowa St.	96	0
10	Kansas	56	0

 

2013 Preseason Media All-Conference Team

 

Offense
Pos	Player	School
QB	Casey Pachall	TCU
RB	Lache Seastrunk	Baylor
RB	John Hubert	Kansas State
WR	Josh Stewart	Oklahoma State
WR	Eric Ward	Texas Tech
TE	Jace Amaro	Texas Tech
OL	Cyril Richardson	Baylor
OL	Cornelius Lucas	Kansas State
OL	Gabe Ikard	Oklahoma
OL	Trey Hopkins	Texas
OL	Le’Raven Clark	Texas Tech
Defense
Pos	Player	School
DL	Devonte Fields	TCU
DL	Calvin Barnett	Oklahoma State
DL	Jackson Jeffcoat	Texas
DL	Kerry Hyder	Texas Tech
LB	Bryce Hager	Baylor
LB	Jordan Hicks	Texas
LB	Shaun Lewis	Oklahoma State
DB	Ty Zimmerman	Kansas State
DB	Jason Verrett	TCU
DB	Aaron Colvin	Oklahoma
DB	Quandre Diggs	Texas
Special Teams
Pos	Player	School
K	Jaden Oberkrom	TCU
P	Kirby Van Der Kamp	Iowa State
KR	Tyler Lockett	Kansas State
PR	Tramaine Thompson	Kansas State

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team	Baylor Bears
Head Coach	Art Briles
Colors	Green and Gold
City	Waco, TX
2012 Record
Conference	4-5
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	92
Pass Offense	93
Run Defense	67
Pass Defense	59
Ratings
PiRate	112.5
Mean	103.2
Bias	112.4
Rankings
PiRate	32
Mean	46
Bias	32
Prediction
Conference	4-5
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Iowa St. Cyclones
Head Coach	Paul Rhoads
Colors	Cardinal and Gold
City	Ames, IA
2012 Record
Conference	3-6
Overall	6-7
Grades
Run Offense	64
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	58
Pass Defense	68
Ratings
PiRate	99.7
Mean	92.8
Bias	98.3
Rankings
PiRate	59
Mean	92
Bias	70
Prediction
Conference	1-8
Overall	2-10

 

 

Team	Kansas Jayhawks
Head Coach	Charlie Weis
Colors	Crimson and Blue
City	Lawrence, KS
2012 Record
Conference	0-9
Overall	1-11
Grades
Run Offense	76
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	60
Pass Defense	42
Ratings
PiRate	93.9
Mean	91.5
Bias	92.8
Rankings
PiRate	82
Mean	99
Bias	87
Prediction
Conference	1-8
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	Kansas St. Wildcats
Head Coach	Bill Snyder
Colors	Royal Purple (and Silver)
City	Manhattan, KS
2012 Record
Conference	8-1
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	90
Pass Offense	64
Run Defense	81
Pass Defense	77
Ratings
PiRate	111.9
Mean	104.5
Bias	110.8
Rankings
PiRate	33
Mean	42
Bias	34
Prediction
Conference	5-4
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Oklahoma Sooners
Head Coach	Bob Stoops
Colors	Crimson and Cream
City	Norman, OK
2012 Record
Conference	8-1
Overall	10-3
Grades
Run Offense	83
Pass Offense	89
Run Defense	74
Pass Defense	76
Ratings
PiRate	115.8
Mean	111.6
Bias	115.2
Rankings
PiRate	22
Mean	26
Bias	24
Prediction
Conference	7-2
Overall	9-3

 

 

Team	Oklahoma St. Cowboys
Head Coach	Mike Gundy
Colors	Orange and Black
City	Stillwater, OK
2012 Record
Conference	5-4
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	79
Pass Offense	99
Run Defense	87
Pass Defense	81
Ratings
PiRate	122.0
Mean	111.2
Bias	122.7
Rankings
PiRate	5
Mean	28
Bias	5
Prediction
Conference	8-1
Overall	11-1

 

 

Team	Texas Longhorns
Head Coach	Mack Brown
Colors	Burnt Orange and White
City	Austin
2012 Record
Conference	5-4
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	93
Pass Offense	95
Run Defense	91
Pass Defense	90
Ratings
PiRate	127.3
Mean	116.2
Bias	127.8
Rankings
PiRate	3
Mean	8
Bias	3
Prediction
Conference	9-0
Overall	12-0

 

 

Team	T C U Horned Frogs
Head Coach	Gary Patterson
Colors	Purple and White
City	Ft. Worth, TX
2012 Record
Conference	4-5
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	82
Pass Offense	76
Run Defense	92
Pass Defense	84
Ratings
PiRate	118.0
Mean	115.1
Bias	118.9
Rankings
PiRate	15
Mean	13
Bias	14
Prediction
Conference	6-3
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Texas Tech Red Raiders
Head Coach	Kliff Kingsbury
Colors	Red and Black
City	Lubbock, TX
2012 Record
Conference	4-5
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	57
Pass Offense	86
Run Defense	71
Pass Defense	60
Ratings
PiRate	104.1
Mean	96.6
Bias	102.9
Rankings
PiRate	45
Mean	78
Bias	45
Prediction
Conference	2-7
Overall	5-7

 

 

Team	West Virginia Mountaineers
Head Coach	Dan Holgersen
Colors	Old Gold and Blue
City	Morgantown, WV
2012 Record
Conference	4-5
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	63
Pass Offense	83
Run Defense	65
Pass Defense	56
Ratings
PiRate	102.1
Mean	97.4
Bias	101.1
Rankings
PiRate	47
Mean	72
Bias	51
Prediction
Conference	2-7
Overall	4-8