The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Divisional Playoff Round: January 12-13, 2019

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Ratings and Information

 

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: 4:35 PM Eastern Standard

TV: NBC

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Kansas City by 6.4 

Mean: Kansas City by 7.2

Bias: Kansas City by 5.7

Total: 55

Expected Score: Kansas City 31  Indianapolis 24

———————————————————————————-

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

Time: 8:15 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox 

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate:  Los Angeles by 8.5

Mean: Los Angeles by 8.8

Bias: Los Angeles by 8.8

Total: 49.5

Expected Score: Los Angeles 30  Dallas 21

—————————————————————————-

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Time: 1:05 PM Eastern Standard

TV: CBS

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 3.5

Mean: New England by 2.8

Bias: New England by 2.7

Total: 45.5

Expected Score: New England 24  Los Angeles 21

———————————————————————————-

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Time: 4:40 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New Orleans by 12.8 

Mean: New Orleans by 12.5

Bias: New Orleans by 12.4

Total: 49

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Philadelphia 17

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December 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Wildcard Playoff Round: January 5-6, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Houston Indianapolis 2.0 2.7 2.1 49.5
Dallas Seattle -1.6 -1.9 -2.8 44.5
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 2.6 2.4 2.4 43
Chicago Philadelphia 5.5 5.5 6.4 44.5

The Wildcard Playoff Schedule

Saturday,  January 5, 2019

4:35 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: ESPN

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

 

8:15 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox Network

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

 

Sunday, January 6, 2109

1:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

 

4:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

 

For the Divisional Playoff Round

The lower remaining seed in the AFC will play at Kansas City on Saturday, January 12, on NBC at 4:35 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the NFC will play at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, January 12, on Fox Network at 8:15 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the AFC will play at New England on Sunday, January 13, on CBS at 1:05 PM EST

 

The lower remaining seed in the NFC will play at New Orleans on Sunday, January 13, on Fox Network at 4:40 PM EST

Ratings of the Playoff Teams

Playoff Team PiRate Mean Bias Avg. Total W-L
New Orleans 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.3 27 13-3
Kansas City 106.8 107.0 106.6 106.8 30.5 12-4
LA Rams 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5 29 13-3
Chicago 104.9 105.1 105.8 105.3 21.5 12-4
New England 105.0 105.1 104.9 105.0 22.5 11-5
Seattle 104.6 104.7 105.2 104.8 24 10-6
LA Chargers 104.3 105.0 104.8 104.7 23 12-4
Baltimore 104.5 104.9 104.7 104.7 20 10-6
Indianapolis 102.9 102.3 103.3 102.8 25.5 10-6
Houston 102.4 102.5 103.0 102.6 24 11-5
Philadelphia 102.4 102.6 102.5 102.5 23 9-7
Dallas 100.5 100.3 99.9 100.2 20.5 10-6

 

Note: The College Basketball Bracket Gurus will debut next week.  Most of the gurus are enjoying vacations this week and did not submit their data to us.

December 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 29- January 1 Bowls and NFL Week 17

This is a very busy day here on the PiRate ship, as we will debut our 2018-19 version of PiRate Ratings Basketball later today.

The Land Sharps have been coming down to Earth since their blistering hot November, as December has not been kind to our five friends.  At the same time, the PiRate Ratings picks have continued to win in December, especially the Bowl game Money Lines, where we have experimented with playing the underdog in every game and finding the most favorable underdog Money Line odds.  With underdogs winning all three games on Thursday, the Return on Investment for this system to date is now 64.16%!  This includes a push in the Boston College and Boise State game that was cancelled due to severe lightning.

This Week’s Land Sharp Picks

Cal Gal Tiffany

Nevada -1 vs. Arkansas St.

Central Florida +8 vs. LSU

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Stewed Meat

Mississippi St. -7 vs. Auburn

Penn St. -6 vs. Kentucky

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Dean 615

Florida +6 vs. Michigan

Notre Dame +12.5 vs. Clemson

Oklahoma +15 vs. Alabama

 

Buckeye Michelle

Oklahoma St. +9 vs. Missouri

Ohio State – 6.5 vs. Washington

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Friday Dog 13

Auburn -3 vs. Purdue

Michigan -5.5 vs. Florida

Clemson -12 vs. Notre Dame

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

10-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston Jacksonville 17 Jacksonville
Green Bay Detroit 19 Detroit
New England N.Y. Jets 24.5 N.Y. Jets
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Chicago 14.5 Chicago
Kansas City Oakland 24.5 Oakland
Philadelphia Washington 17.5 Washington
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
L.A. Rams San Francisco 0.5 L.A.Rams
L.A. Chargers Denver 17 Denver
Tennessee Indianapolis 7 Indianapolis
Team Team Total Pick
Houston Jacksonville 50 UNDER
Green Bay Detroit 34.5 OVER
Atlanta Tampa Bay 61.5 UNDER
Team Team Total Pick
New England N.Y. Jets 35 OVER
Chicago Minnesota 30 OVER
Oakland Kansas City 42.5 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Philadelphia Washington 32 OVER
L.A.Rams San Francisco 38.5 OVER
L.A. Chargers Denver 31.5 OVER
13-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
New Orleans Carolina 21.5 Carolina
Miami Buffalo 8 Buffalo
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 3 Pittsburgh
Baltimore Cleveland 18.5 Cleveland
Team Team Total Pick
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 58.5 UNDER
Cleveland Baltimore 27.5 OVER
Arizona Seattle 25.5 OVER
Indianapolis Tennessee 30.5 OVER
Favorite Underdog Moneyline Pick
Michigan Florida +210 Florida
South Carolina Virginia +185 Virginia
Nevada Arkansas St. +105 Arkansas St.
Clemson Notre Dame +380 Notre Dame
Alabama Oklahoma +490 Oklahoma
Cincinnati Virginia Tech +195 Virginia Tech
Stanford Pittsburgh +195 Pittsburgh
Oregon Michigan St. +120 Michigan St.
Missouri Oklahoma St. +315 Oklahoma St.
Utah Northwestern +255 Northwestern
Texas A&M North Carolina St. +248 North Carolina St.
Mississippi St. Iowa +245 Iowa
LSU Central Florida +260 Central Florida
Penn St. Kentucky +220 Kentucky
Ohio St. Washington +220 Washington
Georgia Texas +410 Texas

 

Remember: Neither the Land Sharps or the PiRates wager real money on the selections presented here at this site.  We recommend you do the same.  This is for entertainment purposes only.

Check back at this site Friday afternoon for our first college basketball report of the season, featuring our top 25, picks of games involving teams in power conferences, and a little something else.

 

December 25, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 30, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
New Orleans Carolina 10.5 11.0 10.7 50
Houston Jacksonville 7.6 8.1 8.6 42
Green Bay Detroit 5.2 5.9 5.8 48
Tampa Bay Atlanta -2.1 -1.8 -1.0 50.5
N.Y. Giants Dallas 0.5 0.7 1.3 42.5
New England N.Y. Jets 12.4 13.0 12.7 47.5
Buffalo Miami 1.4 1.9 1.8 40
Minnesota Chicago 0.8 0.9 0.0 42.5
Kansas City Oakland 17.0 17.1 16.9 52.5
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 15.1 15.2 15.5 48
Baltimore Cleveland 9.7 9.8 9.2 44
Washington Philadelphia -8.2 -8.9 -8.4 45.5
Seattle Arizona 15.2 15.9 16.4 41
L.A. Rams San Francisco 13.5 13.7 13.5 49
Denver L.A. Chargers -4.7 -5.5 -5.4 43
Tennessee Indianapolis -2.0 -1.4 -2.6 45

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.0 105.1 104.9 105.0 22.5 10-5
N. Y. Jets 95.1 94.6 94.7 94.8 25 4-11
Miami 94.0 93.6 93.6 93.7 23 7-8
Buffalo 92.9 93.0 92.9 92.9 17 5-10
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.2 107.4 107.4 107.3 24.5 8-6-1
Baltimore 104.5 104.9 104.7 104.7 20 9-6
Cleveland 97.7 98.1 98.5 98.1 24 7-7-1
Cincinnati 95.1 95.2 94.9 95.1 23.5 6-9
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Indianapolis 102.9 102.3 103.3 102.8 25.5 9-6
Houston 102.4 102.5 103.0 102.6 24.5 10-5
Tennessee 98.8 98.9 98.8 98.8 19.5 9-6
Jacksonville 97.3 96.9 96.9 97.0 17.5 5-10
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.8 107.0 106.6 106.8 31 11-4
LA Chargers 104.3 105.0 104.8 104.7 23.5 11-4
Denver 98.7 98.5 98.4 98.5 19.5 6-9
Oakland 92.2 92.4 92.3 92.3 21.5 4-11
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.4 102.6 102.5 102.5 23.5 8-7
Dallas 100.5 100.3 99.9 100.2 19.5 9-6
N.Y. Giants 97.5 97.5 97.7 97.6 23 5-10
Washington 94.3 93.7 94.1 94.0 22 7-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.9 105.1 105.8 105.3 22 11-4
Minnesota 103.3 103.4 103.3 103.3 20.5 8-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.7 99.9 25 6-8-1
Detroit 97.6 97.3 96.8 97.2 23 5-10
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.3 27 13-2
Atlanta 100.0 99.9 99.8 99.9 25.5 6-9
Carolina 99.8 99.3 99.5 99.5 23 6-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.1 96.8 96.3 25 5-10
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5 28 12-3
Seattle 104.6 104.7 105.2 104.8 23.5 9-6
San Francisco 95.5 95.5 95.3 95.4 21 4-11
Arizona 91.9 91.3 91.2 91.5 17.5 3-12

 

The Playoff Scenarios

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs

If the Chiefs beat Oakland, they win the #1 seed in the AFC and will have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

If the Chiefs lose to Oakland, then they can fall to the #5 seed if the Chargers beat Denver.  If the Chargers also lose, then the Chiefs will still win the AFC West, but they could fall to the #2 seed if New England or Houston wins, and the #3 seed if both New England and Houston win.

 

2.) New England Patriots

If the Patriots beat the New York Jets, they can be no worse than the #2 seed no matter what Houston does.  If the Pats beat the Jets and Kansas City loses to Oakland, New England will grab the #1 seed and get homefield advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.

If the Patriots lose to the Jets, and Baltimore beats Cleveland, then the Patriots lose a first round bye and will be the #3 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee and the #4 seed if Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

If the Patriots lose and Baltimore also loses, New England retains the #2 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee, but they fall to the #3 seed if Baltimore loses but Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

 

3.) Houston Texas

Houston can still earn the #1 seed, if the Texans beat Jacksonville, while Kansas City and New England both lose.  If Houston wins but either Kansas City or New England win their games, the Texans would be the #2 seed.  If Houston wins but Kansas City and New England both win, then Houston gets the #3 seed.

If Houston loses to Jacksonville, then the Texans fall into a wildcard spot, as the winner of the Tennessee-Indianapolis game would win the AFC South.  Houston would fall to a #6 seed with a loss.

 

4. ) Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Ravens beat Cleveland, they are the AFC North Champion.  They can earn the #2 seed if Houston and New England both lose.  They will earn the #3 seed if they win and either New England or Houston loses.  They will earn the #4 seed if both New England and Houston win.

If the Ravens lose, but Pittsburgh also loses, they will be the #4 seed, but if the Ravens lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will win the AFC North, and the Ravens will be eliminated.  In the rare event that Pittsburgh wins and Baltimore ties Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will win the tiebreaker and become the AFC North champions and #4 Seed.

If Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win, then the Steelers could only squeak in as a Wildcard team if Indianapolis and Tennessee were to tie.

 

5.) Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers can still win the AFC West and wrap up the top seed in the AFC if they beat Denver and Oakland beats Kansas City.  If Kansas City and the Chargers both win, then the Chargers are the #5 seed.

If the Chargers lose to Denver, then they are the #5 seed regardless of the outcomes of any other games.

 

6.) Tennessee Titans or Indianapolis Colts

Since this is the Sunday Night Game, both teams will know their fate when this game kicks off.

First, the winner of this game will be in the playoffs, while the loser will not be in the playoffs.  If the game ties, then either Indianapolis will be in the playoffs and Tennessee will be out, or both teams will be eliminated if Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win.

If Houston loses earlier in the day, then the winner of this game will win the AFC South.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis:

The Titans can move up as high as the #2 seed if they beat the Colts, while New England, Houston, and Baltimore all lose.  The Titans can earn the #3 seed, if they beat the Colts, while New England and Houston lose but Baltimore wins or While Houston loses and Baltimore loses.  The Titans can earn the #4 seed if they beat the Colts, while Houston loses, and New England and Baltimore win.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis, while Baltimore, New England, and Houston win, the Titans are the #6 seed.

If Indianapolis beats Tennessee:

The Colts can move no higher than a #3 seed if Houston loses to Jacksonville and Baltimore loses to Cleveland, no matter what happens in the other games.  If Indianapolis wins, Houston loses, and Baltimore wins, then the Colts are the #4 seed.

If Indianapolis wins and Houston wins, then the Colts are the #6 seed

 

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints

The Saints have clinched the #1 overall seed in the NFC and have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  Thus, they can rest Drew Brees and other key players this week in a meaningless game against Carolina.

 

2.) Los Angeles Rams

If the Rams beat San Francisco or Chicago loses to Minnesota, the Rams are the #2 seed.

If the Rams lose to the 49ers, while Chicago beats Minnesota, the Rams fall to a #3 seed and lose a first round bye.

 

3.) Chicago Bears

If Chicago wins and the Rams lose, the Bears get a bye and the #2 seed.

If Chicago wins and the Rams win, or if the Bears lose, they will be the #3 seed.

 

4.) Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is the automatic #4 seed, win or lose against the Giants.  The Cowboys will rest their starters in a meaningless game that could be Eli Manning’s last in a Giants’ uniform.

 

5.) Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have clinched a Wildcard berth in the NFC Playoffs.  If Seattle wins, or Minnesota loses, then the Seahawks are the #5 seed.  If Seattle loses and Minnesota wins, the Seahawks fall to the #6 seed.

 

6.) Minnesota Vikings or Philadelphia Eagles

If Minnesota beats Chicago, the Vikings earn a Wildcard Bid, and would be the #5 seed if Seattle loses and the #6 seed if Seattle wins.

If Minnesota loses, then if Philadelphia beats Washington, the Eagles will earn the Wildcard bid and #6 seed, and the Vikings would be eliminated.

If both Minnesota and Philadelphia lose, then the Vikings sneak in as the #6 seed.

In the rare event that Minnesota ties Chicago, the Vikings would still be the #6 seed at 8-6-2, even if Philadelphia wins to get to 9-7.

 

 

 

 

December 8, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–December 9-12, 2016

This week, there is only one college game with Army and Navy facing off in Baltimore.  Thus, we must make our selections only from the NFL schedule.  We are throwing caution to the wind, as even though we have a small 6% profit for the season entering this week, we are not going to a stall to guarantee a winning season.  We want to make that Return on Investment top 10%, and thus we are going with three parlays this week.  Each parlay goes off at odds higher than +200, so winning just one of the three would add profit to our imaginary bankroll for the season.

1. NFL Parlay at +220
Indianapolis over Houston
Detroit over Chicago
Tampa Bay over New Orleans

Let us make sure you understand that we are aware of the Colts’ having to make major defensive changes after losing star D’Qwell Jackson for four games due to a suspension for Performance Enhancing substances.  Jackson was the key to the Indy defense, but his loss has made this parlay a better play for us.

The way we see the Colts-Texans game is that Indy will outscore Houston and not have to worry about Jackson missing on the stop side.  Houston has scored just 99 points in their last six games, while Indianapolis with Andrew Luck is a team capable of scoring 35 points in this game.

 

Detroit is ready to wrap up the NFC North Division, and this is a game the Lions should win handily.  The Bears are limping home and might decide to pull a NY Jets this weekend, or at least we hope they might.

 

Tampa Bay is now a slight favorite to win the NFC South with second year quarterback Jameis Winston maturing into a potential star.  The Bucs’ defense is not to be confused with Carolina’s, but TB should be able to match Drew Brees point for point and come up with one or two big plays to win.

 

2. NFL Parlay at +248
Carolina over San Diego
Miami over Arizona

The Panthers and Chargers are now out of the playoff race, and the only reason we believe Carolina will win this game is that San Diego has been forced to do a lot of travelling this season and must go 2,500 miles and three time zones this week.  The game should be a fascinating close match.

 

Miami has a slim chance to earn a wildcard bid, but the Dolphins must win out and then get some help.  Arizona is going nowhere, and they too must travel across the country.

 

3. NFL Parlay at +211
N. Y. Jets over San Francisco
New England over Baltimore

The key to this parlay is whether the Jets will show that Monday night was a fluke.  Will the team show up for Todd Bowles and give him a chance to keep his job?  Just a normal effort would be enough to lead NY to victory over a 49ers team that may be weaker than Cleveland at the present time.

 

We are throwing the Patriots into this parlay to bring the odds up over +200.  Baltimore will not lay down in this game and allow New England to win going away, and the Pats will have to bring their A-game without Gronk.  However, we believe (hope) the Pats realize they are now in a dogfight for the #1 seed and understand that this is a must-win game.

 

 

 

 

October 27, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 8: October 29 – November 2, 2015

34% Is Not Good For The Game
34% may be a great figure for the percentage of at bats that result in a base hit for a batter. It can be a great percentage for number of times you win the Daily Double at Keeneland on the race card. But, 34% is an awful number when it applies to the number of NFL teams with winning records through seven weeks.

Only 11 out of the 32 NFL have a winning record at this point in the season. Because 12 teams make the playoffs, if the playoffs began today, there would be one lousy team with a losing record in the playoffs. To make matters worse, that team would be the 3-4 Indianapolis Colts which could easily make the playoffs at 6-10. Worse, they would host a playoff game. It just as easily could be Houston or even Jacksonville, where 6-10 might win the AFC South.

The NFC East is not much better off. The New York Giants might win the division at 8-8. Never have two teams at .500 or below made the playoffs in the same year. If a 9-7 team fails to qualify for the playoffs, while a 6-10 team not only makes the playoffs but hosts a first round game, something is seriously wrong.

Improving The Playoffs

The NFL would be better served by switching to four, eight-team divisions, with two divisions in both conferences. Let the champions of the four divisions earn byes in the first round, with the four best remaining teams in both conferences earning the wildcard spots. Then, the 3rd and 4th seeded teams in both conferences would host the 5th and 6th seeded teams.

For easy argument’s sake, let’s just combine the East and North Divisions and the South and West Divisions. We’ll call the four divisions the AFC Northeast, the AFC Southwest, the NFC Northeast, and the NFC Southwest.

That would change things a lot and make the playoffs much better than it will be. If the season ended today, New England would edge Cincinnati for one bye; Denver would get the Southwest bye; and the two NFC byes would go to Green Bay and Carolina. Not much would change in this regard, although Cincinnati would replace Denver under the old format.

The big change would come in the other playoff spots. Now, the 3-4 Colts would not be in line to host or even make the playoffs. The remaining four AFC playoff bids would go like this:

3rd Seed–Cincinnati
4th Seed–New York Jets
5th Seed–Pittsburgh
6th Seed–Oakland

There would be different home teams in the other conference too. The NFC would go like this:
3rd Seed–Atlanta
4th Seed–Arizona
5th Seed–Minnesota
6th Seed–New York Giants

There still might be an 8-8 or even a 7-9 team in the playoffs, but now they would be the #6 seed playing on the road against a much better team.

Which do you think is a better option?

A. 6-10 Indianapolis hosting 11-5 New York Jets, while the Oakland Raiders stay home at 8-8
B. 13-3 Cincinnati Bengals hosting 8-8 Oakland Raiders, while the Indianapolis Colts stay home at 6-10

Which one of these looks like the better way to choose an NFC champion?

A. 8-8 New York Giants hosting 12-4 Atlanta Falcons
B. 12-4 Atlanta Falcons hosting 8-8 New York Giants

Now for this week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 103.9 103.2 104.3 103.8 3-4-0 160 137
Dallas 102.8 101.3 102.4 102.2 2-4-0 121 158
N.Y. Giants 99.9 99.8 100.1 99.9 4-3-0 166 156
Washington 94.8 94.6 94.6 94.7 3-4-0 148 168
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 108.6 107.9 108.3 108.3 6-0-0 164 101
Minnesota 102.5 100.7 103.8 102.3 4-2-0 124 102
Detroit 98.0 96.2 96.8 97.0 1-6-0 139 200
Chicago 94.4 94.3 94.6 94.4 2-4-0 120 179
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 103.8 104.1 104.9 104.3 6-0-0 162 110
Atlanta 99.7 99.8 100.2 99.9 6-1-0 193 150
New Orleans 98.0 95.4 98.2 97.2 3-4-0 161 185
Tampa Bay 91.7 92.8 91.5 92.0 2-4-0 140 179
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 107.0 106.4 107.6 107.0 5-2-0 229 133
Seattle 106.5 105.7 106.1 106.1 3-4-0 154 128
St. Louis 97.5 98.8 97.6 98.0 3-3-0 108 119
San Francisco 96.3 94.4 96.2 95.6 2-5-0 103 180
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.4 111.6 111.8 111.6 6-0-0 213 126
N. Y. Jets 102.3 103.0 103.4 102.9 4-2-0 152 105
Miami 99.4 100.8 98.9 99.7 3-3-0 147 137
Buffalo 99.5 99.8 98.8 99.4 3-4-0 176 173
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 105.9 107.0 106.7 106.5 6-0-0 182 122
Pittsburgh 104.1 104.2 104.3 104.2 4-3-0 158 131
Baltimore 102.2 101.1 102.1 101.8 1-6-0 161 188
Cleveland 94.4 93.7 94.4 94.2 2-5-0 147 182
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 99.9 100.1 99.5 99.8 3-4-0 147 174
Houston 94.7 96.1 94.1 95.0 2-5-0 154 199
Tennessee 92.7 92.5 92.7 92.6 1-5-0 119 139
Jacksonville 90.2 93.1 89.3 90.9 2-5-0 147 207
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 106.2 105.4 105.7 105.8 6-0-0 139 102
Kansas City 99.2 100.1 99.3 99.5 2-5-0 150 172
San Diego 98.1 98.2 97.8 98.0 2-5-0 165 198
Oakland 94.3 97.8 93.9 95.3 3-3-0 144 153
This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 8      
Date of Games: October 29-November 2      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New England Miami 15.0 13.8 15.9
Kansas City (London) Detroit 1.2 3.9 2.5
Atlanta Tampa Bay 10.5 9.5 11.2
Cleveland Arizona -9.1 -9.2 -9.7
St. Louis San Francisco 4.2 7.4 4.4
New Orleans NY Giants 1.1 -1.4 1.1
Chicago Minnesota -5.6 -3.9 -6.7
Baltimore San Diego 7.1 5.9 7.3
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 0.7 -0.3 0.1
Houston Tennessee 5.0 6.6 4.4
Oakland NY Jets -5.0 -2.2 -6.5
Dallas Seattle -0.7 -1.4 -0.7
Denver Green Bay 0.6 0.5 0.4
Carolina Indianapolis 6.9 7.0 8.4

October 13, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 6: October 15-19, 2015

Playoff Teams Almost Determined After Five Weeks!

In this day of parity, it is not supposed to be this way.  20-24 teams are supposed to contend for the 12 playoff spots into Week 15 and on.  However, after just five weeks this year, the NFL has become a league of haves and have-nots.

It has been a long time since there were this many undefeated teams after five weeks of the season.  Additionally, you have divisions with one decent to very good team and three mediocre to plain awful teams.  Let’s take a look at the eight divisions.

AFC East: Many so-called experts believe the Patriots will run the table and could join the Miami Dolphins as one of two undefeated, untied teams to win the Super Bowl.  We are not ready to agree yet, but New England should win at least 13 games and easily claim this division, even with two fairly good teams trying to contend for Wildcard spots.

The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills could both finish above .500, and you have to consider these Empire State rivals as two of just three teams contending for the final two spots in the AFC Playoffs.

 

AFC North: Cincinnati solidified their dominance in the division with an impressive victory over Seattle.  The Bengals are now prohibitive favorites to win the division title, especially if Ben Roethlisberger cannot return soon and return to his pre-injury form.

As for the Steelers, they are the third team (along with the Jets and Bills) fighting for the two Wildcard spots.

 

AFC South: A mediocre Indianapolis Colts team could be an 8-8 division winner, but they might still win this division with a record as pitiful as 6-10.  The other three teams combined may not reach 10 wins this year.  The Colts are 3-2 with their three wins coming against each of the three other South teams.

 

AFC West: Denver is somehow 5-0 with Peyton Manning looking pedestrian at best.  The Broncos are once again showing that the first year of having Wade Phillips as your defensive coordinator is always an improved defensive result.  The Broncos already have two games of light in front of their division rivals, and they could clinch a playoff spot by their 11th or 12th  game.

 

NFC East: This is the one division with a lot of uncertainty.  Dallas might be so far behind in the standings by the time Tony Romo returns, while Washington lacks the talent to win consistently.  The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles should go down to the last couple of weeks to decide the single playoff team from this division.  The two rivals square off on Monday Night Football this week in what should be an exciting and high-scoring game.

 

NFC North: It will be another division flag in Titletown USA, as the Green Bay Packers have only modest competition from their rivals, the Minnesota Vikings.  Minnesota could contend for a Wildcard spot, but we don’t believe they are ready to challenge the Packers.

 

NFC South: There are two playoff teams here, and the only decision is which will be the division winner and which will be the top Wildcard.  Atlanta and Carolina don’t face off until Weeks 14 and 16, and by then we expect the eventual division winner to be 10-3, and it would not surprise us if both teams are 10-3 by then.

 

NFC West: Seattle is lucky, lucky, lucky to be 3-2 instead of 2-3.  The Seahawks are going to struggle to make it to 9-7 this year and will have to contend with Minnesota for the number six seed.  Arizona could finish as strong as 14-2 if Carson Palmer stays healthy.

Playoff Seed Projections

AFC

1. New England

2. Cincinnati

3. Denver

4. Indianapolis

5. Buffalo

6. Pittsburgh

 

NFC

1. Arizona

2. Green Bay

3. Atlanta

4. Philadelphia

5. Carolina

6. Minnesota

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 103.9 103.1 104.2 103.7 2-3-0 117 103
Dallas 103.4 101.9 103.2 102.8 2-3-0 101 131
N.Y. Giants 100.8 100.7 101.0 100.8 3-2-0 132 109
Washington 95.5 95.4 95.7 95.5 2-3-0 97 104
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 108.8 108.2 109.0 108.7 5-0-0 137 81
Minnesota 101.4 99.2 102.8 101.1 2-2-0 80 73
Detroit 98.8 97.4 97.9 98.0 0-5-0 83 138
Chicago 94.1 93.9 94.1 94.0 2-3-0 86 142
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 101.4 101.5 101.7 101.5 4-0-0 108 71
Atlanta 100.5 101.1 101.2 100.9 5-0-0 162 112
New Orleans 96.3 92.7 96.0 95.0 1-4-0 103 143
Tampa Bay 91.4 92.5 91.0 91.6 2-3-0 110 148
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 108.0 107.5 109.0 108.2 4-1-0 190 90
Seattle 106.9 106.3 106.9 106.7 2-3-0 111 98
St. Louis 96.8 98.1 96.4 97.1 2-3-0 84 113
San Francisco 96.8 94.8 96.8 96.1 1-4-0 75 140
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.7 112.0 112.3 112.0 4-0-0 149 76
Buffalo 102.0 102.6 102.1 102.2 3-2-0 124 105
N. Y. Jets 101.4 101.9 102.1 101.8 3-1-0 95 55
Miami 94.8 96.2 93.5 94.8 1-3-0 65 101
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 104.7 105.6 105.2 105.2 5-0-0 148 101
Pittsburgh 104.2 104.3 104.3 104.3 3-2-0 120 95
Baltimore 102.6 101.7 102.7 102.3 1-4-0 123 137
Cleveland 95.0 94.1 95.3 94.8 2-3-0 118 132
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 101.2 101.8 100.9 101.3 3-2-0 99 113
Tennessee 96.1 95.8 96.8 96.2 1-3-0 102 91
Houston 95.1 95.9 94.6 95.2 1-4-0 97 135
Jacksonville 89.4 93.0 88.2 90.2 1-4-0 93 145
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 106.6 106.0 106.3 106.3 5-0-0 113 79
San Diego 99.4 99.3 98.8 99.2 2-3-0 116 134
Kansas City 98.1 99.0 97.7 98.3 2-3-0 117 143
Oakland 92.8 96.4 92.2 93.8 2-3-0 107 124

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 6      
Date of Games: October 15-19      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New Orleans Atlanta -1.2 -5.4 -2.2
NY Jets Washington 8.4 9.0 8.9
Pittsburgh Arizona -0.3 0.3 -1.2
Minnesota Kansas City 6.3 3.2 8.1
Buffalo Cincinnati 0.3 0.0 -0.1
Detroit Chicago 7.2 6.0 6.3
Cleveland Denver -8.6 -8.9 -8.0
Jacksonville Houston -3.2 -0.4 -3.9
Tennessee Miami 3.8 2.1 5.8
Seattle Carolina 9.0 8.3 8.7
Green Bay San Diego 12.4 11.9 13.2
San Francisco Baltimore -2.3 -3.4 -2.4
Indianapolis New England -7.5 -7.2 -8.4
Philadelphia NY Giants 5.1 4.4 5.2

 

September 22, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 3: September 24-28, 2015

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:58 am
Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 107.5 106.4 108.2 107.4 2-0-0 47 36
Philadelphia 102.8 101.9 102.8 102.5 0-2-0 34 46
N.Y. Giants 99.3 99.1 99.6 99.3 0-2-0 46 51
Washington 94.4 94.0 93.9 94.1 1-1-0 34 27
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 108.7 107.8 109.2 108.6 2-0-0 58 40
Detroit 101.8 100.4 101.6 101.3 0-2-0 44 59
Minnesota 100.1 97.3 101.3 99.6 1-1-0 29 36
Chicago 93.8 93.0 94.0 93.6 0-2-0 46 79
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 101.1 101.0 101.2 101.1 2-0-0 44 26
Atlanta 97.6 97.9 98.4 98.0 2-0-0 50 44
New Orleans 97.2 93.1 97.3 95.9 0-2-0 38 57
Tampa Bay 91.6 92.4 91.3 91.8 1-1-0 40 61
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle 106.3 105.6 106.0 106.0 0-2-0 48 61
Arizona 104.1 103.2 104.8 104.0 2-0-0 79 42
San Francisco 99.4 97.0 99.1 98.5 1-1-0 38 46
St. Louis 95.6 97.3 94.6 95.8 1-1-0 44 55
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 108.0 108.1 108.0 108.0 2-0-0 68 53
N. Y. Jets 101.0 101.4 101.4 101.3 2-0-0 51 17
Buffalo 101.0 101.9 101.1 101.3 1-1-0 59 54
Miami 98.1 99.9 97.3 98.4 1-1-0 37 33
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 104.6 103.7 105.2 104.5 0-2-0 46 56
Pittsburgh 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.2 1-1-0 64 46
Cincinnati 103.5 104.3 103.5 103.8 2-0-0 57 32
Cleveland 94.6 92.7 94.7 94.0 1-1-0 38 45
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 101.2 101.7 100.7 101.2 0-2-0 21 47
Houston 97.1 98.5 96.8 97.5 0-2-0 37 51
Tennessee 96.3 95.9 97.1 96.4 1-1-0 56 42
Jacksonville 90.5 95.0 89.5 91.7 1-1-0 32 40
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 106.2 105.8 105.9 106.0 2-0-0 50 37
San Diego 101.1 101.9 101.0 101.3 1-1-0 52 52
Kansas City 100.2 101.8 100.4 100.8 1-1-0 51 51
Oakland 91.2 95.8 89.7 92.2 1-1-0 50 66

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
NY Giants Washington 7.4 7.6 7.9
Arizona San Francisco 7.7 9.2 8.7
Baltimore Cincinnati 4.1 2.4 4.7
Carolina New Orleans 5.9 9.9 5.9
Cleveland Oakland 6.9 0.4 8.5
Dallas Atlanta 12.4 11.0 12.7
Detroit Denver -1.4 -2.4 -1.3
Houston Tampa Bay 8.5 9.1 8.5
Miami Buffalo 0.1 1.0 -0.8
Minnesota San Diego 2.0 -1.6 3.3
New England Jacksonville 20.5 16.1 21.5
NY Jets Philadelphia -0.8 0.5 -0.1
Seattle Chicago 15.5 15.6 15.0
St. Louis Pittsburgh -5.5 -3.9 -6.8
Tennessee Indianapolis -1.9 -2.8 -0.6
Green Bay Kansas City 11.5 9.0 11.8

 

August 28, 2015

2015 AFC South Preview

Indianapolis and the Three Dwarfs:  Since the AFC South was formed, all four member teams have had their turn as the top banana, but there has been one consistent theme.  When Tennessee was dominant in the early 2000’s, the Colts were the chief competitor usually finishing a game behind or ahead of the Titans.

When Jacksonville was tough with their stable of tough running backs, it was Indianapolis that was 14-2 when the Jags were 12-4.

When Houston began to shine a few years ago, once again, their competition was the Colts.

Now, the Colts have no competition in the South.  Houston lacks a quarterback that can get them to the playoffs, and J. J. Watt cannot make 30 sacks to level the playing field.  Jacksonville has more rebuilding to do before they can even challenge for an 8-8 record.  Tennessee has been down for six years, and the Titans have as many holes in their roster as a piece of Swiss cheese.  The Colts could go 6-0 in divisional play, while the other three teams all finish 2-4.

 

Houston surprised the football world by rebounding from 2-14 to go 9-7 and almost make the playoffs.  The Texans’ schedule goes from one of the easiest with all the last place teams to one of the more difficult with two extra second place teams (Kansas City and Cincinnati instead of Oakland and Cleveland).  The Texans lose their star receiver in Andre Johnson, and Brian Hoyer passing to Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington as options to DeAndre Hopkins does not have the look of a playoff contender.

Andrew Luck compares with Peyton Manning in that he has taken over this team and led them to divisional dominance.  He also compares a little to Andy Dalton in that the Colts keep coming up short in the playoffs.  However, as we stated about Dalton, it is not his fault when the Colts’ defense gives up 45 points to the Patriots.  This year, Indianapolis’s offense is set to take a step up to the very top of the AFC.  The Colts add Andre Johnson to a roster already stocked with offensive stars.  An improved defense should give Indy a strong chance at competing for the best overall record in the AFC and a good shot at playing in February.

Jacksonville has been number 31 or 32 in the league for multiple seasons.  At one time, the Jaguars were the leading team to relocate to Los Angeles.  At one time, they were more than 21-point underdogs in a game.  Jacksonville might have been picked to contend for an 8-8 record this year had bad luck not hit this team in the Spring.  Top draft choice Dante Fowler was lost for the season with an ACL injury.  Fowler could have been the Jags’ Watt and improve the defense by a touchdown per game.  Now, they have little pass rush, and enemy quarterbacks will be a lot more comfortable on Sunday.

Tennessee puts all their eggs in the Marcus Mariota basket.  Eventually, we believe Mariota will prove to be the right choice for the Titans, but as a rookie with a vulnerable offensive line, we expect backup Zach Mettenberger to be the starter by midseason and possibly Clay Whitehurst by December.  The Titans defense made a couple of key additions by signing Brian Orakpo and adding legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau as assistant head coach.  LeBeau might wish he had retired with the liabilities in the line and in the secondary.

 

HOUSTON TEXANS

Texans Starting Lineup
Offense
WR DeAndre Hopkins
WR Cecil Shorts
WR Nate Washington
TE Garrett Graham
LT Duane Brown
LG Xavier Su’a-Filo
C Ben Jones
RG Brandon Brooks
RT Derek Newton
QB Brian Hoyer
HB Alfred Blue
FB Jay Prosch
   
Defense
DE Jared Crick
DT Vince Wilfork
DE J. J. Watt
LB John Simon
LB Brian Cushing
LB Mike Mohamed
LB Jadeveon Clowney
CB Kareem Jackson
S Rahim Moore
S Stevie Brown
CB Johnathan Joseph
N5 A. J. Bouye
   
Special
Kicker Randy Bullock
Punter Shane Lechler
KR Chandler Worthy
PR Chandler Worthy
Houston Texans
Head Coach Bill O’Brien
Off. Coordinator George Godsey
Def. Coordinator Romeo Crennel
2014 W-L-T 9-7-0
Pts 23.3
Opp 19.2
   
Ratings  
PiRate 97.6
Mean 99.1
Bias 97.5
Average 98.1
   
Grades  
Running B+
Passing D
Vs. Run A
Vs. Pass C+
Special Teams C
Coaching + Intangibles C
   
Predicted W-L 7-9-0
Division Rank 2
Conference Rank 11
Overall Rank 22
Postseason No

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Colts Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Andre Johnson
WR T. Y. Hilton
TE Dwayne Allen
TE Coby Fleener
LT Anthony Costanzo
LG Lance Louis
C Khaled Holmes
RG Todd Herremans
RT Jack Mewhort
QB Andrew Luck
HB Frank Gore
FB (NONE)
   
Defense
DE Kendall Langford
DT Josh Champan
DT Arthur Jones
LB Trent Cole
LB Jerrell Freeman
LB D’Qwell Jackson
LB Erik Walden
CB Greg Toler
S Mike Adams
S Dwight Lowery
CB Vontae Davis
N5 Darius Butler
   
Special
Kicker Adam Vinatiari
Punter Pat McAfee
KR Dan Herron
PR Phillip Dorsett
Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach Chuck Pagano
Off. Coordinator Pep Hamilton
Def. Coordinator Greg Manusky
2014 W-L-T 11-5-0
Pts 28.6
Opp 23.1
   
Ratings  
PiRate 104.7
Mean 105.8
Bias 104.9
Average 105.1
   
Grades  
Running B
Passing A+
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles B-
   
Predicted W-L 10-6-0
Division Rank 1
Conference Rank 4
Overall Rank 7
Postseason Yes

 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jaguars Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Allen Robinson
WR Allen Hurns
TE Julius Thomas
TE Marcedes Lewis
LT Luke Joeckel
LG Zane Beadles
C Stefen Wisniewski
RG Brandon Linder
RT Jermey Parnell
QB Blake Bortles
HB T. J. Yeldon
FB (NONE)
   
Defense
DE Andre Branch
DT Ziggy Hood
DT Tyson Alualu
DE Jared Odrick
LB Telvin Smith
LB Paul Posluszny
LB Dan Skuta
CB Davon House
S Craig Loston
S Sergio Brown
CB Aaron Colvin
N5 Josh Evans
   
Special
Kicker Josh Scobee
Punter Bryan Anger
KR Denard Robinson
PR Rashad Greene
Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach Gus Bradley
Off. Coordinator Greg Olson
Def. Coordinator Bob Babich
2014 W-L-T 3-13-0
Pts 15.6
Opp 25.8
   
Ratings  
PiRate 89.8
Mean 95.2
Bias 88.5
Average 91.2
   
Grades  
Running C-
Passing D
Vs. Run C-
Vs. Pass C-
Special Teams C
Coaching + Intangibles C-
   
Predicted W-L 5-11-0
Division Rank 4
Conference Rank 16
Overall Rank 32
Postseason No

 

TENNESSEE TITANS

Titans Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Kendall Wright
WR Harry Douglas
TE Delanie Walker
TE Anthony Fasano
LT Taylor Lewan
LG Byron Bell
C Brian Schwenke
RG Chance Warmack
RT Jeremiah Poutasi
QB Marcus Mariota
HB Bishop Sankey
FB Jalston Fowler
   
Defense
DE DaQuan Jones
DT Sammie Hill
DT Jurrell Casey
LB Derrick Morgan
LB Zach Brown
LB Avery Williamson
LB Brian Orakpo
CB Perrish Cox
S Da’Norris Searcy
S Michael Griffin
CB Jason McCourty
N5 Coty Sensabaugh
   
Special
Kicker Ryan Succop
Punter Brett Kern
KR Dexter McCluster
PR Dexter McCluster
Tennessee Titans
Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt
Off. Coordinator Jason Michael
Def. Coordinator Ray Horton
2014 W-L-T 2-14-0
Pts 15.9
Opp 27.4
   
Ratings  
PiRate 93.9
Mean 93.7
Bias 94.5
Average 94.0
   
Grades  
Running C
Passing C+
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass B-
Special Teams B
Coaching + Intangibles C
   
Predicted W-L 7-9-0
Division Rank 3
Conference Rank 14
Overall Rank 28
Postseason No

 

March 13, 2015

NCAA Men’s Basketball Update–Friday, March 13, 2015

The PiRates have been attacked by enemy vessels, so we are operating on auxiliary buccaneer power this week.  We are sorry for any inconveniences, and we hope to be back to normal in time for Monday’s big reveal of bracketnomics.

Until then, here are the updated ratings of the Major Conference Teams still alive in their respective tournaments.

Team           Red      White      Blue
Arizona        118        120        119
Arkansas     109        110        110
Auburn          91        101          94
Baylor          110       113         114
Duke           117        118         118
Florida        106        108         107
G’town        110        112         111
Georgia      108        109         108
Indiana       105        108         104
Iowa St.      111        116         111
Kansas       114        114         112
Kentucky    123        121         125
LSU            105        109         106
Maryland    110        109         111
Michigan    100        105         101
Mich. St.     112        111         114
N.Carolina  112        114         114
N. Dame     111        113         110
Ohio St.      113        112         113
Oklahoma  112         115         113
Oregon      107         109         109
Penn St.      98         104           99
Providence 106        110         105
Purdue       106        107         107
S. Carolina 102        106         103
Tennessee  98         104           99
UCLA         106        108         107
Utah          114         114         113
Villanova   118         119         116
Virginia     119         116          117
Wisconsin 119         117         118
Xavier       108         111         107

Bracketology Update

Yesterday, the bubble was re-arranged with Texas, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Miami, Ole Miss, Illinois, and Stanford winning.  Luckily, for these teams making quick exits from their conference tournaments, very few surprise teams have emerged to possibly steal bids away from the bubblers.

Of the remaining teams in the Power conferences, only four teams really pose a threat to the bubble  In the Big Ten, Penn State is in the quarterfinals after posting an upset over Iowa.  In the SEC, Auburn, Tennessee, and South Carolina are still alive.  Realistically, we see no chance that any of these four will pull off major surprises with Wisconsin and Kentucky in their way.

Let’s take a look at how our two dozen plus experts see the bubble teams.

Last 4 In with Byes

Boise St. Purdue, Davidson, and Indiana

Last 4 In and must play in Dayton

Colorado St., Ole Miss, BYU, and Tulsa

First 4 Out looking at #1 Seeds in the NIT

Temple, UCLA, Miami, and Illinois

NIT for sure

Richmond, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, and Stanford

Note–Temple, Tulsa, Richmond, Boise St., Colorado St., Purdue, Davidson, UCLA, and Temple are still alive in their conference tournaments, so this bubble will change shape again in the next few days.  Due to computer issues, we will not be able to update again until Monday after the field is announced.

For the NCAA Tournament, we will have the Red, White, and Blue Ratings in addition to the tried and true PiRate Bracketnomics Report with the exclusive R+T ratings that have weeded out pretenders and isolated dark horses in the past 12 seasons.

Can anybody upend Kentucky?  If so, we will tell you which teams have the resume to do it.

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