A minor profit last week led us to a conclusion. In December, our NFL picks have been somewhat more successful than our college picks. The Virus has added an intangible to game outcomes at the college level, while only mildly affecting NFL games. Additionally, once students left schools and finished their semesters virtually at home, the college football players were left isolated on little islands. Rather than desire to play meaningless bowl games for a little compensation of bowl bling, many desired to spend the Holidays at home with family and friends. Other than the Fiesta Bowl, where all players will receive PS5’s, maybe a better prize in their eyes than anything the FBS Playoffs can offer.
The NFL is a totally different story. Week 16 is usually the most crucial week of the regular season. The best teams usually need one more win to secure the playoff spot they will secure or make the playoffs. The eliminated teams begin to experiment with roster changes. The worst teams may sabotage their chances to win meaningless games at the end of the season, especially when there is a generational superstar ready to become the next John Elway.
Before you read this and say, “this will be an easy week!” realize something else. Those clever folks in Nevada with all the positive revenue streams know this bit of information and have adequately padded the spreads to reflect this information.
So, in the end, the spreads are about as accurate in Week 16 as they are in Week 6. And, for our purposes, understanding that the numbers themselves are more important than the names attached to those numbers, we are issuing selections based on trying to “steal” an extra couple of percentage points in our favor. That small gain basically removes the vigorish that the books have. It still boils down to a 50-50 wager, so it is still highly speculative.
Our Christmas gift to you is knowledge. That knowledge is in our case an expert knowledge. Our expertise is knowing that we don’t know enough for you to take these selections and wager real money on the picks. This is an experiment in mathematics to be read for enjoyment and maybe to understand that without real inside information, none of us non-sharps can consistently pick winning selections.
As an FYI, the State of Tennessee legalized sports betting on November 1 of this year. According to Legal Sports Report, in the first 30 days, the citizens of the Volunteer State volunteered a record $131.4 million to the state’s four authorized sports books. Four more sports books, including the giant William Hill, will commence operations in Tennessee in 2021. These companies vacuum up money quickly, as a large majority of their customers get poor slowly. The state is very conservative, and the overwhelming majority disapprove of any tax, yet they willingly agree to pay the state exorbitant taxes in the way of gambling. Try showing this to an average sports bettor, and he or she will laugh at you, telling you that they can win money unlike when they pay taxes. Yet, if you look at their accounts, very few show a profit. We found one person willing to “experiment” for one calendar year. He usually allots himself $2,000 to play during the football season, and in most years, that two grand is gone by Thanksgiving. At the end of 2019, we convinced him to open an account with a broker and deposit the $2,000 and not bet for the 2020-2021 football season. When the Virus outbreak apparently doomed all sports for the year in March, he was able to stick to his convictions, thinking there would be no games to bet that money and lose. Simply reading a few periodicals on value investing, he quickly discovered an equal love for “wagering” on corporations in a sport where the bettor investor has the advantage.
He didn’t lose all his money by Thanksgiving. In fact, by the time he sat down to enjoy his moist and juicy turkey, his investment had already returned close to 18%. As 2020 limps to the finish line, his original $2,000 investment is now pushing $2,400. He doesn’t plan on withdrawing the money or placing the next $2,000 in one of the sports books. If you learn anything from this site, let it be this: If you have a couple decades or more remaining in your pre-retirement lives, or even if you have reached retirement age and figure on sticking around for another score or so, a buy and hold strategy in high-quality value stocks with a long history of positive earnings and dividends is going to make you a lot wealthier than betting on State to beat Tech by 7 1/2 points.
Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night. Here are our selections for the week.
1. NFL 6 1/2 Point Teaser
+160
Selection
Opponent
Spread
Miami
Las Vegas
+6.5
Buffalo
New England
-0.5
New Orleans
Minnesota
-0.5
2. NFL 7 Point Teaser
-130
Selection
Opponent
Spread
Tampa Bay
Detroit
-2.5
Cleveland
N.Y. Jets
-2.5
3. 7 Point Teaser
-130
Selection
Opponent
Spread
Houston
Cincinnati
-0.5
Chicago
Jacksonville
-0.5
4. 10 Point Teaser
-110
Selection
Opponent
Spread
Kansas City
Atlanta
-0.5
Indianapolis
Pittsburgh
+8
Baltimore
N.Y. Giants
-1
5. 10- Point Teaser
-110
Selection
Opponent
Spread
Carolina
Washington
+12
LA Rams
Seattle
+11
Dallas
Philadelphia
+12.5
Comments Off on PiRate Picks for December 24-28, 2020
Today marks the official beginning of our PiRate Ratings Just for Fun Selections against the spreads. For those of you new to this feature, we do not claim expertise in any of our pretend selections, and all selections are made with an imaginary bankroll of limitless wads of $100 bills.
In past years, our picks have returned imaginary profits with unreal returns on investment in excess of 50%. In other years, including last year, we have suffered unreal losses. Because no real money is transacted, we can be a little liberal with our numbers of selections, because winning or losing 5 games are no different than winning or losing 1 or 0 games when the money doesn’t really exist. No jokes about it being the same as reality.
Our two favorite types of plays are teasers and money line parlays. At the start of this crazy wagering season, we don’t have a lot of faith in money line parlays. We have no inside access to know how many “Navy” situations there are, where the Midshipmen obviously were not ready to play against BYU Monday night, and their head coach took the blame for not having any live hitting drills all through preseason practice.
The NFL may be the more logical way to go at the start of the season, and with the schedules so inconsistent in college football, the teams may prepare for the wrong opponent thanks to that nasty little virus. The NFL schedules look to be more consistent for now.
Without further adieu, here are our picks for College Week 2 and NFL Week 1.
Date:
9/10-914
7-point Teaser
+140
Selection
Opponent
Line
Texas State
UTSA
-2.5
Tulane
South Alabama
-1.5
Syracuse
North Carolina
+30
6-point Teaser
-110
Selection
Opponent
Line
Green Bay
Minnesota
+8.5
New England
Miami
-0.5
6-point Teaser
-110
Selection
Opponent
Line
Atlanta
Seattle
+8
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
-2
6-point Teaser
-110
Selection
Opponent
Line
Baltimore
Cleveland
-2
Buffalo
NY Jets
-0.5
6-point Teaser
-110
Selection
Opponent
Line
San Francisco
Arizona
-1
Pittsburgh
NY Giants
Pk
Remember: The PiRates never wager real money on these picks, and we highly advise you to refrain as well. If you wager real money, please rely on a reliable service. You pay nothing for these picks, and they are still overpriced.
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