PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 1, 2018

Conference Tournament Action From Last Night

Big Ten Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
Iowa 96	Illinois 87
Rutgers 65	Minnesota 54

Updated Big Ten Bracket

Second Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 Maryland	#9 Wisconsin	Big Ten
2:15 PM	#5 Michigan	Iowa	Big Ten
6:30 PM	#7 Penn St.	#10 Northwestern	Big Ten
8:45 PM	#6 Indiana	Rutgers	Big Ten
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Michigan St.	Mary or Wisc	Big Ten
2:15 PM	#4 Nebraska	Michigan or Iowa	Big Ten
6:30 PM	#2 Ohio St.	PSU or N’Western	Big Ten
8:45 PM	#3 Purdue	Indiana or Rutgers	Big Ten
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:00 PM	MSU/Mary/Wisc	Neb/Mich/Iowa	CBS
4:30 PM	OSU/Purd/NW	Purd/Ind/Rutg	CBS
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
4:30 PM			CBS

 

Northeast Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
Wagner 73	Central Connecticut 61
Robert Morris 60	Mount St. Mary’s 56
Fairleigh-Dickinson 84	St. Francis (Pa) 75
Long Island 73	St. Francis (Bkn) 50

Updated Northeast Conference Bracket

Semifinals–March 3
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Wagner	#7 Robert Morris	ESPN3
2:00 PM	#4 Long Island	#6 Fairleigh-Dickinson	ESPN3
Championship–March 6
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	ESPN2

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
Tennessee Tech 60	SIU-Edwardsville 51
Eastern Illinois 73	Tennessee St. 71

Updated Ohio Valley Conference Bracket

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	#4 Jacksonville St.	Tennessee Tech	OVC
9:00 PM	#3 Austin Peay	Eastern Illinois	OVC
Semifinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Murray St.	Jax. St. or Tenn Tech	ESPNU
9:30 PM	#2 Belmont	APSU or E. Illinois	ESPNU
Championship–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPN2

 

Other Conference Tournaments in Action Today

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament

All Games Played at Higher Seed

All Times EST

Semifinals–March 1
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Florida Gulf Coast	#5 North Florida	ESPN3
8:00 PM	#2 Lipscomb	#3 Jacksonville	ESPN3

 

Big South Conference Tournament

Championship Game at Higher Seed

Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed UNC-Asheville

All Times EST

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	#2 Radford	#10 Longwood	ESPN3
3:30 PM	#3 Winthrop	#6 Gardner-Webb	ESPN3
7:00 PM	#1 UNC-Asheville	#8 Charleston Southern	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#4 Campbell	#5 Liberty	ESPN3

 

Patriot League Tournament

All Games Played at Higher Seed

All Times EST

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Bucknell	#8 Loyola (MD)	Stadium
7:00 PM	#4 Lehigh	#5 Boston U	Stadium
7:00 PM	#2 Colgate	#7 Lafayette	Stadium
7:00 PM	#3 Navy	#6 Holy Cross	Stadium

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
All Times EST
First Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#8 Monmouth	#9 St. Peter’s	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#7 Quinnipiac	#10 Siena	ESPN3
10:00 PM	#6 Fairfield	#11 Marist	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Rider	Monmouth or St. Peter’s	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#2 Canisius	Quinn. or Siena	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#3 Niagara	Fair. or Marist	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#4 Iona	#5 Manhattan	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	Rider/Monm/St. P	Iona or Manhattan	ESPN3
9:30 PM	Can/Quinn/Siena	Niag/Fair/Marist	ESPN3
Championship–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			TBA

While Rider and Canisius tied for the regular season conference championship, there are two other teams to watch closely in this tournament.  Iona has the best offense in the league, and in a tournament, sometimes the team that plays loose and can fill it up from outside will get a large lead against the other team that begins tight and cannot hit their perimeter shots.  Iona is the two-time defending tournament champion, and until the Gaels lose, they are our favorite to win it again, even as the four-seed.

The other team to watch from back of the pack is Fairfield, the hottest team in the league entering the tournament.  The Stags match up quite well with Niagara, who they would face in the quarterfinal round if they win tonight.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All Times CST
First Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#8 Evansville	#9 Northern Iowa	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#7 Missouri St.	#10 Valparaiso	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Loyola (Chi.)	Evansville or UNI	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#4 Drake	#5 Bradley	ESPN3
6:00 PM	#2 Southern Illinois	MSU or Valpo	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#3 Illinois St.	#6 Indiana St.	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:30 PM	Loyola/Evans/UNI	Drake or Bradley	CBSSN
5:00 PM	SIU/MSU/Valpo	Ill St. or Ind St.	CBSSN
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			CBS

Without Wichita State playing bully on the rest of the league, it was thought that the Valley would be a wide open race this year with a host of teams competing for the regular season and tournament championships.  However, Loyola (Chi.), with five players averaging double figure scoring, has been nearly unstoppable in conference play this year.  The Ramblers have only been to a single NCAA Tournament since their heydays of the 1960’s,   Loyola enters Arch Madness on a 14 for 15 winning streak.

If any other team wins this tournament, it will be a major upset and will produce a 15-seed or worse.  Loyola could be a 13-seed as the Tournament Champions.

There is one team from way back in the pack that has the potential to sneak into the semifinals.  Northern Iowa is the number 9 seed.  If they beat Evansville tonight, they might be the team that can match up best with Loyola, who they would face tomorrow.  If they were to eliminate the Goliath, then there isn’t another team in the field any better than the Panthers.

 

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Conference Tournament Update–Friday, March 10, 2017

Bubble Update

Iowa, Illinois, and Utah clinched bids yesterday, but it’s to the junior prom rather than the senior prom.  The trio are NIT-bound.  USC lost a close one to rival UCLA last night, but we believe the Trojans are rather safe for now.

Some interesting upsets has made it a nerve-wracking day for a few teams that thought they were on the good side of the Bubble.  Let’s take a look at those teams that received Bubble invitations Thursday.

A. TCU–The Horned Frogs pulled the big upset over Kansas, although the Jayhawks were missing a key player due to suspension.  Kansas will remain a #1 seed, but they could move down to the fourth top-seed.  Meanwhile, Jamie Dixon is looking like a genius, taking a program that has been down for a long time and bringing it to the precipice of NCAA Tournament membership.  A Frog win today over Iowa State would give TCU 20 wins with a better than average schedule strength.  It would be mighty impressive on a resume, and the Committee would probably move that piece of paper up into the “accepted pile.”

B. Kansas State–The surprises kept coming in Kansas City, as the Wildcats knocked off Baylor in the nightcap of the Big 12 Quarterfinals.  At this point, K-State may have done enough to earn a bid, so this is probably the end of the line for Illinois State, and it could put a Friday Bubble loser in jeopardy.

C. Indiana demolished Iowa yesterday, and the Hoosiers looked more like the team they were suppose to be this year.  If IU drops Wisconsin today, the Hoosier will have a chance to make the field.  However, the Committee does not seem to favor the Big Ten this year, and it would be difficult to substantiate Indiana making the field if they do not advance to the Championship Game.  Purdue may be fortunate to become a 4-seed, and with Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State all expected to make the field, an eighth Big Ten team would have to be very impressive in the next couple of days in order to make the field.  The interesting plot line here is that IU can win this tournament if they continue to play like they did yesterday, and then it would almost be a given that the Big Ten sent eight teams.  That would definitely burst a Bubble down the line.

D. Xavier had played itself down to the Bubble prior to Big East Tournament play, but the Musketeers moved back to the safe zone with their win over Butler Thursday.  XU will get a bid even if Creighton tops them tonight.

Bubblelicious Games on Friday

If your favorite team is still in that gray area,  and another upset or two makes the Committee order more ice cream, it could be a nervous 48 hours if your team loses today.  Here are the teams that should consider today must win games, even if some Bracketologists consider these teams to be in the field.  The key is that our 13 Bracketology Gurus are not unanimous in their beliefs that these teams are safe even with a loss today.

A. Vanderbilt:  The Commodores made it three for three over Texas A&M, and they bombed away from the perimeter to bury the Aggies with a second half barrage of threes.  Vandy must now do the same thing to the highly-ranked Florida Gators today to become a safe Bubble team.  A loss would leave the Commodores at 18-15, and that would give VU two negatives.  No 15-loss team has ever received and at-large bid, and almost all at-large teams have won four more games than they have lost.  19-15 improves Vandy’s chances by leaps and bounds over 18-15.

B. Houston: The Cougars still need more than one win to have any chance to make the Field.  They must beat UConn today, and then they will need an upset of Cincinnati tomorrow to even move into serious consideration.  Of course, that means Cinti must win their game against Tulsa.

C. Rhode Island is in the same boat with Houston.  Not only must the Rams take out St. Bonaventure today to have a shot at the Dance, they also must upset Dayton tomorrow and thus need Dayton to beat Davidson to set up that game.

D. TCU will move into the Field with a win over Iowa State today.  Of course, it will be a probationary invitation, because they could then be leapfrogged if a team like Indiana or Alabama should win an automatic bid.

E. Speaking of Indiana, the Hoosiers will become an official Bubbler today if they beat Wisconsin.

F. All four SEC games today have Bubble Implications.  We already told you about Vanderbilt.  Georgia has a chance to make some noise if the Bulldogs can find a way to upset Kentucky.  UGA came close to sweeping the Wildcats in the regular season only to lose two heartbreakers.  If UK wants to win this tournament, they will waltz through with three double-digit wins, but if the players are already thinking about the NBA Draft and don’t want to jeopardize their chances by giving their all and risking injury, then any team left in the field can beat the Wildcats.

G. Ole Miss has 20 wins, and a win today over Arkansas, followed by a possible win tomorrow over Florida (if UF beat Vandy), could move the Rebels into contention for a bid.

H. Alabama is the forgotton team in the SEC Tournament.  The Crimson Tide have the potential to play with any league member when they take smart shots.  Coach Avery Johnson knows how to prepare his team to compete, and it all comes down to FG% for the Tide.  Until somebody beats the Crimson, they cannot be overlooked–even if they are.  If the Tide beats South Carolina today and then gets a semifinal game with Kentucky tomorrow, a win over the Wildcats would have to make ‘Bama a serious contender.

I. The three Mid-Major Players: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, and Texas-Arlington are still alive in the at-large race, but the way the trio is playing, they will really have to lay an egg to lose in their conference tournaments.  MTSU faces the one team that beat them in conference play today, and we expect the Blue Raiders to punish UTEP with a blowout win.

Nevada faces a somewhat tougher task facing Fresno State, and if the men from Reno win, they are no guarantee in the Championship against either Colorado State or San Diego State.  In fact, the way the Aztecs played yesterday, they looked similar to all their past teams that advanced into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  This is possibly the best tournament to watch tonight if you are a basketball junkie from another league.

UT-Arlington is the least likely of the three in this group to get an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament, but they do own the one victory over Saint Mary’s other than the three Gonzaga pinned on the Gaels.  There isn’t a lot to add to their schedule strength, so UTA really needs to win the Sun Belt title.

Friday’s Schedule

Conference Tournament Schedule–All Times Eastern Standard
American Athletic Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	SMU	27-4	vs.	9	East Carolina	15-17	12:00 PM	ESPN2
4	Central Florida	20-10	vs.	5	Memphis	19-12	2:00 PM	ESPN2
2	Cincinnati	27-4	vs.	7	Tulsa	15-16	7:00 PM	ESPNU
3	Houston	21-9	vs.	6	Connecticut	15-16	9:00 PM	ESPNU
Atlantic Coast Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	North Carolina	27-6	vs.	5	Duke	25-8	7:00 PM	ESPN
2	Florida St.	25-7	vs.	3	Notre Dame	24-8	9:00 PM	ESPN
Atlantic 10 Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Dayton	24-6	vs.	9	Davidson	16-14	12:00 PM	NBCSN
4	Rhode Island	21-9	vs.	5	St. Bonaventure	20-11	2:30 PM	NBCSN
2	VCU	24-7	vs.	7	George Mason	20-12	6:00 PM	NBCSN
3	Richmond	19-11	vs.	6	George Washington	19-13	8:30 PM	NBCSN
Big 12 Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8	TCU	19-14	vs.	4	Iowa St.	21-10	7:00 PM	ESPN2
2	West Virginia	25-7	vs.	6	Kansas St.	20-12	9:00 PM	ESPN2
Big East Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Villanova	29-3	vs.	5	Seton Hall	21-10	6:30 PM	FS1
7	Xavier	21-12	vs.	6	Creighton	24-8	9:00 PM	FS1
Big Sky Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	North Dakota	20-9	vs.	4	Idaho	18-12	8:35 PM	Big Sky
2	Eastern Washington	22-10	vs.	3	Weber St.	18-12	11:05 PM	Big Sky
Big Ten Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Purdue	25-6	vs.	8	Michigan	21-11	12:00 PM	ESPN
4	Minnesota	23-8	vs.	5	Michigan St.	19-13	2:20 PM	ESPN
2	Wisconsin	23-8	vs.	10	Indiana	18-14	6:30 PM	BTN
3	Maryland	24-7	vs.	6	Northwestern	22-10	8:50 PM	BTN
Big West Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
2	UC-Davis	20-12	vs.	3	Cal St. Fullerton	17-13	9:30 PM	ESPN3
1	UC-Irvine	20-13	vs.	4	Long Beach St.	15-18	12:00 AM	ESPN3
Conference USA
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Middle Tennessee	28-4	vs.	4	UTEP	15-16	12:30 PM	CBSSN
2	Louisiana Tech	23-9	vs.	6	Marshall	19-14	3:00 PM	CBSSN
Mid-American Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Akron	25-7	vs.	4	Ball St.	21-11	5:30 PM	CBSSN
2	Ohio U	20-10	vs.	6	Kent St.	20-13	8:00 PM	CBSSN
Mideastern Athletic Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	UNC-Central	23-8	vs.	5	Md.–Eastern Shore	13-19	6:00 PM	ESPN3
2	Norfolk St.	16-15	vs.	11	Howard	10-23	8:00 PM	ESPN3
Mountain West Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Nevada	26-6	vs.	4	Fresno St.	20-11	10:00 PM	CBSSN
2	Colorado St.	22-10	vs.	6	San Diego St.	20-13	12:30 AM	CBSSN
Pac-12 Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Oregon	28-4	vs.	5	California	21-11	9:00 PM	P12 Net.
2	Arizona	28-4	vs.	3	UCLA	29-3	11:30 PM	ESPN
Southeastern Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Kentucky	26-5	vs.	8	Georgia	19-13	1:00 PM	SECN
4	South Carolina	22-9	vs.	5	Alabama	18-13	3:20 PM	SECN
2	Florida	24-7	vs.	7	Vanderbilt	18-14	7:00 PM	SECN
3	Arkansas	23-8	vs.	6	Ole Miss	20-12	9:20 PM	SECN
Southland Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	New Orleans	18-11	vs.	5	Sam Houston St.	21-12	6:00 PM	ESPN3
2	Texas A&M-CC	19-10	vs.	3	Stephen F. Austin	18-13	8:30 PM	ESPN3
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Texas Southern	21-11	vs.	5	Grambling	16-16	3:30 PM	None
2	Alcorn St. *	17-13	vs.	3	Southern	15-17	9:30 PM	None
*Alcorn St. is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.
If the Braves win the tourney, Texas Sou. wins the bid.
Sun Belt Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	UT-Arlington	24-7	vs.	8	Coastal Carolina	16-16	1:30 PM	ESPN3
4	Texas St.	18-12	vs.	12	Louisiana-Monroe	9-23	3:00 PM	ESPN3
2	Georgia St.	19-11	vs.	7	Louisiana-Lafayette	21-11	6:00 PM	ESPN3
3	Georgia Southern	18-13	vs.	6	Troy	19-14	8:30 PM	ESPN3
Western Athletic Conference
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Cal St. Bakersfield	21-8	vs.	4	Utah Valley	15-15	9:00 PM	ESPN3
2	New Mexico St.	26-5	vs.	3	Missouri-KC	17-15	11:30 PM	ESPN3

NOTE: We are getting several inquiries about our Red-White-Blue ratings and why we do not post them for every game.  The computing of these ratings are quite laborious; it takes upwards of 7 to 8 minutes to do just one game, and even with five or six people retrieving the stats, it limits us to once per week and just the Power Conference games.  We are not issuing any this weekend, as we are spending all our extra time getting this information for the teams that have clinched bids and finished regular season play.

We will issue picks for all NCAA Tournament games, commencing with the First Four at Dayton.  We hope to have the First Four previews on this site by Monday Night Eastern Daylight Time.  

 

The Pirate Ratings Bracketology Gurus Report For February 13, 2017

Sunday Excitement

Before we get started with today’s Bracketology Gurus report, we ask you which TV game this weekend became the most exciting one of all.  We hear some of you voting for the Virginia Tech-Virginia game Sunday, the Gonzaga-St. Mary’s game and Kansas-Texas Tech game Saturday, and a smattering of votes for games in leagues that some of you like over others, maybe the ACC or Big Ten.

If you found us for the first time today, you must know that we have esoteric tastes on the PiRate ship.  Our founder contacted this writer around 5PM Sunday to tell us that we had just missed the best game of the weekend, and probably 99.9% of the college basketball fandom didn’t even know the game he watched was televised.

The Captain told us that we should have watched the Vermont-Maryland-Baltimore County game yesterday.  He tuned in to see if how this Catamount team compared to former coach Tom Brennan’s last team in the Green Mountain State.  That team upset Syracuse in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Captain was very impressed with both teams yesterday and became an instant admirer of UMBC’s little sparkplug, K.J. Maura.  The 5 foot 8 inch and 140 pound Maura was overlooked by all major college teams and had to go the junior college route to make it to the low-major Terriers.  Yesterday, Maura was all over the gym, leading UMBC to an almost incredible comeback after trailing by 18 points in the second half.  The Terriers cut the Vermont lead down to two points with less than 30 seconds to go, and after a steal of an inbound pass, they had plenty of time to set up a final shot, but panic set in leading to an off-balance shot, when Maura was one pass away ready to force the action.  Still, UMBC had a chance to send the game into overtime with 2.1 seconds left on the clock.  A deflected inbound pass found Maura with the ball at halfcourt with the final second on the clock quickly ticking down to goose eggs.  Maura threw up a 46 1/2 foot prayer that was almost answered TWICE!  The ball kicked off the front of the rim and then bounced straight up about 13 feet up from the floor.  In what seemed like 5 seconds to the fans, gravity finally sent the ball toward Earth as the red light illuminated the board like a diner billboard advertising the daily special.  It looked like the pumpkin might drop in the basket, but it fell behind the backboard, giving the win to the Catamounts.

When we tell you avid basketball fans to give the low major and mid major conferences a chance, we really mean it.  Some of the most exciting games are in these mass media ignored leagues.  The Mother Ship will hype these leagues during Championship Week, but you should watch some of these league’s games now when the teams are fighting for spots in the standings, where as opposed to the big conferences, many of the lower leagues value the standings by awarding home games to the superior seeds.

Oh, and the Vermont-UMBC game had the great John Feinstein as the color commentator.  His Schtick reminds our founder of Vin Scully doing a basketball game–great stories with great commentary.

*********

BRACKETOLOGY For 2/13/17

27 days from today, we will know the magic 68 teams that can still win the national championship.  27 days out, our Bracketology Gurus have come to a consensus on 53 of the expected 68 that will receive invitations to the Dance.  15 teams could not receive 100% of the Guru vote.  We will call all the teams that received votes but did not receive a unanimous consensus as our Bubble for the week.  The 15-highest vote-receiving Bubble teams are in the Field of 68 for now, while the rest of the Bubble teams are basically NIT teams for now.

Once again, the Gurus come within one vote of agreeing that 22 conferences will send just one representative to the NCAA Tournament, with the lone dissenter believing that the Missouri Valley Champion runner-up will be a #1 seed in the NIT.  We will go with 22 one-bid leagues and include two Valley teams in the Dance.

ONE-BID LEAGUES

America East: Vermont 13-0/23-5

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast 9-2/20-7

Big Sky: Weber St. 10-2/15-8

Big South: UNC-Asheville 12-2/20-7

Big West: UC-Davis 8-2/16-9

Colonial: UNC-Wilmington 11-3/22-5

Conference USA: Middle Tennessee 12-1/22-4

Horizon: Valparaiso 11-2/21-5

Ivy: Princeton 8-0/15-6

Metro Atlantic: Monmouth 13-2/21-5

Mid-American: Akron 11-1/21-4

Mideastern Athletic: UNC-Central 9-1/18-6

Mountain West: Boise St. 9-3/16-7

Northeast: Mount St. Mary’s 12-2/14-13

Ohio Valley: Belmont 12-1/18-5

Patriot: Bucknell 11-2/19-7

Southern: Furman 11-2/18-8

Southland: New Orleans 10-3/15-9

Southwestern Athletic: Texas Southern 10-1/14-10

Summit: North Dakota St. 9-3/17-8

Sun Belt: Arkansas St. 9-3/18-7

Western Athletic: Cal State Bakersfield 8-1/17-7

 

The Bubble

Math can be a funny thing sometimes if you are a math geek.  While 15 teams made this week’s PiRate Bracketology Gurus Bubble List, a few of them actually finished with a better seed than a few of the teams that were consensus picks.  The reason for this is that a couple of the teams that did not receive consensus selection were seeded considerably higher than some of the consensus teams in a three or four of the dozen Guru’s lists.  We expect that in the next few weeks, this will work itself out, and there will be a consensus Bubble in early March.

In order, here is this week’s Bubble.  The top 15 in this Bubble make the Dance this week, while number 16 starts the group of first teams out.

1. Virginia Commonwealth 10-2/20-5
2. Miami (Fla.) 6-6/16-8
3. Michigan St. 7-5/15-10
4. Michigan 6-6/16-9
5. TCU 6-6/17-8
6. California 9-4/18-7
7. Syracuse 8-5/16-10
8. Minnesota 6-6/18-7
9. MVC #2 (Illinois St. for now  13-1/21-5)
10. Kansas St. 5-7/16-9
11. Oklahoma St. 5-7/16-9
12. Georgia Tech 6-6/15-10
13. Seton Hall 5-7/15-9
14. Marquette 6-7/15-10
15. Arkansas 7-5/18-7
16. Wake Forest 6-7/15-10
17. USC 8-5/21-5
18. Indiana 5-8/15-11
19. Tennessee 6-6/14-11
20. Rhode Island 8-4/16-8
21. Auburn 5-7/16-9
22. Pittsburgh 3-9/14-11
23. Clemson 3-9/13-11
24. Providence 5-8/15-11
25. Utah 8-5/17-8
26. Richmond 9-3/15-9
27. Texas Tech 4-8/16-9
28. Alabama 7-5/14-10
29. Houston 9-4/18-7
30. Ole Miss 6-6/15-10

As you can see, the Bubble has a lot of teams that really should not even be part of the conversation, but this is one of those seasons where 25 teams are really good and the next 55 teams are rather mediocre.  The law of averages would have us believe that one of these mediocre teams will enter the Field of 68 with 12 or more losses and then advance to the Elite 8 and maybe even steal a spot in the Final Four.  Kansas 27-11 (1988), Villanova 25-10 (1985), and North Carolina State 26-10 (1983) from the past even won the whole thing with a lot more losses than the top teams that fell by the wayside those three seasons.

Here is the seed list for all 68 teams

Teams in CAPS represent selected Conference Champion of One Bid League

1–Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor

2–North Carolina, Florida St., Louisville, Oregon

3–Virginia, Arizona, Florida, Kentucky

4–Duke, West Virginia, Butler, UCLA

5–Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Purdue

6–SMU, Creighton, Maryland, South Carolina

7–Dayton, Xavier, Northwestern, St. Mary’s

8–Iowa St., VCU, Miami (Fla.), Michigan St.

9–Virginia Tech, TCU, Michigan, California

10–Syracuse, Minnesota, Wichita St., Kansas St.

11–Oklahoma St., Illinois St., MIDDLE TENNESSEE, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall

12–UNC-WILMINGTON, AKRON, VALPARAISO, Marquette, Arkansas

13–VERMONT, MONMOUTH, BOISE ST., BELMONT

14–FLORIDA-GULF COAST, PRINCETON, BUCKNELL, ARKANSAS ST.

15–UNC-ASHEVILLE, FURMAN, NORTH DAKOTA ST., CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD

16-NEW ORLEANS, TEXAS SOUTHERN, WEBER ST., CAL-DAVIS, UNC-CENTRAL, MOUNT ST. MARY’S

 

First Four in Dayton

16-Weber St. vs. Mount St. Mary’s

16-Cal-Davis vs. UNC-Central

12-Marquette vs. Arkansas

11-Georgia Tech vs. Seton Hall

 

Last Four Byes

Illinois St.

Oklahoma St.

Kansas St.

Minnesota

 

First Four Out

Wake Forest

USC

Indiana

Tennessee

 

Next Four Out

Rhode Island

Auburn

Clemson

Pittsburgh

Coming Mid-week: We take our next look at the top teams that we consider to be real title contenders and apply our 4 Factors Data and PiRate Ratings Criteria to see which teams have staying power.  Does Gonzaga have what it takes to give Mark Few his first Final Four appearance, or are the Bulldogs headed for an early stumble?  Can Kentucky meld into a real team of character rather than 7 youthful characters and make a run to the title?  Could this be Coach K’s final season in Durham, and could he repeat the performance of John Wooden and go out on top?  Or, is there another team lurking behind the current contenders that may not be getting its due?  Find the answers, or at least our version of the answers, in our next report.  Time permitting, it will be published Wednesday late afternoon (Eastern Time).

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 11-12, 2017

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 11, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	12	10	11
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	-1	-2	2
Duke	Clemson	10	12	10
Louisville	Miami	14	11	13
Georgia Tech	Boston College	9	6	7
Notre Dame	Florida St.	1	4	1
West Virginia	Kansas St.	12	12	5
Baylor	TCU	9	10	13
Texas Tech	Kansas	-4	-2	-4
Oklahoma St.	Texas	15	12	11
Iowa St.	Oklahoma	12	12	11
St. John’s	Seton Hall	1	-1	-2
Georgetown	Marquette	1	2	7
DePaul	Creighton	-13	-11	-15
Xavier	Villanova	-1	-2	1
Providence	Butler	-1	-1	-2
Rutgers	Minnesota	-5	-3	-7
Illinois	Penn St.	4	5	7
Maryland	Ohio St.	8	6	6
Michigan St.	Iowa	6	8	11
Utah	Washington	14	13	15
Arizona St.	Stanford	2	2	-3
Arizona	California	8	8	7
USC	Oregon	-4	-5	-7
Florida	Texas A&M	16	17	12
Alabama	Kentucky	-8	-4	-5
Missouri	Vanderbilt	-4	-3	-7
Tennessee	Georgia	7	7	7
Ole Miss	Auburn	4	4	7
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	-5	-3	-5
LSU	Arkansas	-4	-4	-1
St. Mary’s	Gonzaga	-8	-1	-1

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 12, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-6	-7	-9
SMU	Cincinnati	5	3	3
Indiana	Michigan	4	4	8
Wisconsin	Northwestern	8	9	14
UCLA	Oregon St.	28	26	20
Colorado	Washington St.	13	14	11

PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Gonzaga
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. Virginia
5. Wisconsin
6. Louisville
7. North Carolina
8. West Virginia
9. Baylor
10. Florida St.
11. Cincinnati
12. Florida
13. Kentucky
14. St. Mary’s
15. Duke
16. Purdue
17. SMU
18. UCLA
19. Wichita St.
20. Creighton
21. Arizona
22. Maryland
23. Oregon
24. Butler
25. Dayton

ACC

1. Virginia
2. Louisville
3. North Carolina
4. Florida St.
5. Duke
6. Notre Dame
7. Wake Forest
8. Clemson
9. Syracuse
10. Virginia Tech
11. Miami
12. Georgia Tech
13. North Carolina St.
14. Pittsburgh
15. Boston College

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma St.
5. Iowa St.
6. Kansas St.
7. TCU
8. Texas Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Creighton
3. Butler
4. Dayton
5. Xavier
6. Marquette
7. Seton Hall
8. Georgetown
9. Providence
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Wisconsin
2. Purdue
3. Maryland
4. Northwestern
5. Minnesota
6. Michigan
7. Indiana
8. Michigan St.
9. Ohio St.
10. Iowa
11. Illinois
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Pac-12

1. UCLA
2. Arizona
3. Oregon
4. USC
5. Utah
6. California
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. South Carolina
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Arkansas
7. Vanderbilt
8. Auburn
9. Alabama
10. Ole Miss
11. Texas A&M
12. Mississippi St.
13. LSU
14. Missouri

A Great Weekend For Watching Hoops on TV

The Following Games are listed in order of the most exciting and important and not in order of tip-off time

All times given are Eastern Standard

SATURDAY

St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga  8:15 PM on ESPN

Xavier vs. Villanova  2:30 PM on Fox

Notre Dame vs. Florida St. 6:00 PM on ESPN

USC vs. Oregon  10:30 PM on Pac-12 Network

Alabama vs. Kentucky  1:00 PM on CBS

Texas Tech vs. Kansas  2:00 PM on ESPN

Princeton vs. Columbia  6:00 PM  For those that have purchased Ivy League Live Sports Access: http://www.ivyleaguedigitalnetwork.com/princeton/game/columbia-at-princeton-on-02112017

 

SUNDAY

SMU vs. Cincinnati  4:00 PM on ESPN

Virginia Tech vs. Virginia  6:30 PM on ESPNU

Indiana vs. Michigan  1:00 PM on CBS

Wisconsin vs. Northwestern  6:30 PM on Big Ten Network

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 4-5, 2017

 

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 4, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Syracuse	Virginia	-7	-6	-9
Duke	Pittsburgh	15	16	12
Boston College	Louisville	-15	-13	-15
North Carolina St.	Miami (Fla.)	-1	-1	1
Wake Forest	Georgia Tech	11	12	11
North Carolina	Notre Dame	9	8	9
Georgetown	Seton Hall	3	3	7
DePaul	Marquette	-10	-8	-9
Creighton	Xavier	6	5	5
Villanova	St. John’s	17	19	19
Maryland	Purdue	-2	-3	1
Penn St.	Rutgers	8	6	8
Illinois	Minnesota	-2	1	-1
Michigan	Ohio St.	7	8	2
TCU	Texas	8	6	5
Kansas	Iowa St.	11	10	10
Baylor	Kansas St.	9	9	14
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	11	13	7
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	7	9	7
Oregon	Arizona	2	4	5
Stanford	Utah	-3	-3	-2
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	-6	-2	-1
Washington St.	USC	-7	-8	-5
Washington	UCLA	-11	-10	-6
South Carolina	Georgia	8	6	6
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	6	6	8
Mississippi St.	Tennessee	-4	-1	-6
Missouri	Arkansas	-6	-4	-3
Florida	Kentucky	1	4	1
Alabama	Auburn	6	7	9
LSU	Texas A&M	-3	-2	-6
Cincinnati	Connecticut	14	14	14
Tulsa	SMU	-6	-6	-6
Gonzaga	Santa Clara	27	20	23
San Diego	Saint Mary’s	-15	-16	-16

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 5, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Florida St.	Clemson	8	6	8
Wisconsin	Indiana	9	7	4
Iowa	Nebraska	7	6	3
California	Colorado	5	6	8

PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Gonzaga
2. Villanova
3. Louisville
4. West Virginia
5. Kansas
6. Kentucky
7. North Carolina
8. Virginia
9. Duke
10. Florida
11. Wisconsin
12. Baylor
13. Arizona
14. Purdue
15. UCLA
16. Cincinnati
17. Florida St.
18. Oregon
19. Creighton
20. St. Mary’s
21. Notre Dame
22. SMU
23. Butler
24. South Carolina
25. Wichita St.

ACC

1. Louisville
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Duke
5. Florida St.
6. Notre Dame
7. Clemson
8. Wake Forest
9. Virgnia Tech
10. Miami
11. Syracuse
12. Georgia Tech
13. North Carolina St.
14. Pittsburgh
15. Boston College

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Creighton
3. Butler
4. Xavier
5. Marquette
6. Seton Hall
7. Georgetown
8. Providence
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Wisconsin
2. Purdue
3. Maryland
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan St.
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Indiana
9. Ohio St.
10. Iowa
11. Illinois
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Big 12

1. West Virginia
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma St.
5. Iowa St.
6. Kansas St.
7. TCU
8. Texas Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Pac-12

1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. Oregon
4. Utah
5. USC
6. California
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Arkansas
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Vanderbilt
8. Alabama
9. Auburn
10. Texas A&M
11. Ole Miss
12. Mississippi St.
13. LSU
14. Missouri

Games You Will Want to Watch 

All Times Eastern Standard

SATURDAY

Maryland vs. Purdue 12:00 PM on ESPN

Creighton vs. Xavier 3:00 PM on Fox

North Dakota St. vs. South Dakota 3:00 PM on ESPN3

Oregon vs. Arizona 4:00 PM on ESPN

North Carolina vs. Notre Dame 6:00 PM on ESPN

Harvard vs. Princeton 7:00 PM on ESPN3

Wichita St. vs. Illinois St. 8:00 PM on ESPN2

Florida vs. Kentucky 8:15 PM on ESPN

SUNDAY

Wisconsin vs. Indiana 1:00 PM on CBS

The Groundhog may have seen his shadow to forecast 6 more weeks of winter, but cheer up.  Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training in 10 days.

New England 24  Atlanta 20

Use this at your own expense–we do not gamble.  Some experts are going heavy on the UNDER the last 36 hours, and computer sims say it is a sharp selection, but still we won’t wager a penny.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For January 28-29, 2017

PiRate Ratings Spreads for January 28-29, 2017

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, January 28, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Georgia Tech	Notre Dame	-4	-8	-3
Pittsburgh	Clemson	-2	-1	2
Syracuse	Florida St.	-4	-4	-5
Miami	North Carolina	-7	-7	-7
Wake Forest	Duke	-2	-4	-1
West Virginia	Texas A&M	19	19	8
Oklahoma	Florida	-4	-6	-7
Texas Tech	LSU	14	16	12
Tennessee	Kansas St.	1	-1	5
Oklahoma St.	Arkansas	8	5	7
Georgia	Texas	6	6	6
Vanderbilt	Iowa St.	-3	-4	4
TCU	Auburn	10	12	13
Ole Miss	Baylor	-10	-10	-10
Kentucky	Kansas	9	8	8
Marquette	Providence	10	9	8
Creighton	DePaul	14	16	14
Butler	Georgetown	11	11	7
Rutgers *	Wisconsin	-13	-17	-11
Minnesota	Maryland	5	5	6
Penn St.	Illinois	3	2	-1
Iowa	Ohio St.	1	2	-1
Utah	Oregon St.	22	22	21
Colorado	Oregon	-7	-9	-10
Alabama	Mississippi St.	7	6	8
Missouri	South Carolina	-12	-12	-12
Pepperdine	Gonzaga	-27	-26	-19
Santa Clara	St. Mary’s	-9	-12	-13

* Rutgers-Wisconsin game to be played at Madison Square Garden in Manhattan

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, January 29, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Villanova	Virginia	5	6	5
St. John’s	Xavier	-5	-8	-7
Louisville	North Carolina St.	18	17	18
Virginia Tech	Boston College	13	15	10
Michigan St.	Michigan	2	3	9
Nebraska	Purdue	-9	-10	-4
Northwestern	Indiana	5	1	-1
Arizona St.	Washington St.	10	12	8
California	Stanford	8	11	7
Cincinnati	South Florida	26	28	28

What a week!  So, who is number one now?  Unless they suffer a monumental upset loss tomorrow, Gonzaga will assume the top spot in the polls, but are the Bulldogs really the best team in college basketball?

To answer that question yourself, ask yourself, “Would I take Gonzaga over X in a neutral site game in the NCAA Tournament?  Now, plug all the other top teams in the “X” spot in that question.

If you find yourself saying that a couple of schools would beat the Bulldogs, does that mean Gonzaga is not number one?  Not so fast my friends.  Maybe two of the other top 10 teams might be the “X’s” in your mind that can beat Gonzaga, while the Zags would beat the other eight.  However, which team among that group of ten would do any better?  Maybe both of the teams you figured to beat Gonzaga might only beat seven of the other top ten.  This is the 21st Century, and the John Wooden UCLA dynasty is nowhere to be found.  From 1964 to 1975, except for 1966, you might have been able to say that UCLA could beat all the other top teams with very little argument.  The Bruins were to men’s basketball what Connecticut is to women’s basketball now.

So, yes indeed.  As of this writing, Gonzaga is the legitimate number one team in the nation.  That does not mean that they are a lock for the Final Four, but in our opinion Mark Few has his best team, and the Bulldogs have the potential to make it to Phoenix.  It has been done before.  UNLV, Marquette, UNC-Charlotte, Pennsylvania, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler were all very powerful teams from non-power leagues when they first made Final Four appearances.  Gonzaga is much like UNLV and Marquette from the 1970’s.  They have been very good for a long time, and they have beaten many power teams, but they have yet to win the big games.  UNLV made the Final Four in 1977 and again in 1987 before breaking through in 1990 to win the title.  Marquette had an undefeated regular season and lost before the Final Four.  They had the second best team in 1976 but had to play the best team (Indiana) in the Mid-east Regional.  Finally, with Al McGuire’s weakest team during his dynasty in the won-loss ledger, his only seven-loss team since he turned the then Warriors into a power, MU won the 1977 title.

Gonzaga cannot be overlooked.  They might not get to the promised land this year, but then again, this could be their year.  There is no top ten team at this point that doesn’t have some weakness.  Gonzaga has the talent to exploit any weakness this year, something Few has not had in the past.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25 

Using an algorithm based on the Four Factors

1. Gonzaga
2. North Carolina
3. West Virginia
4. Baylor
5. Louisville
6. Villanova
7. Kentucky
8. Kansas
9. Wisconsin
10. Arizona
11. Virginia
12. Butler
13. Oregon
14. Purdue
15. UCLA
16. Cincinnati
17. Florida St.
18. Creighton
19. Notre Dame
20. South Carolina
21. SMU
22. Saint Mary’s
23. Kansas St.
24. Duke
25. Florida

Power Conferences

ACC

1. North Carolina
2. Louisville
3. Virginia
4. Florida St.
5. Notre Dame
6. Duke
7. Wake Forest
8. Clemson
9. Miami 
10. Virginia Tech
11. Syracuse
12. North Carolina St.
13. Georgia Tech
14. Pittsburgh
15. Boston College

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Butler
3. Creighton
4. Marquette
5. Xavier
6. Seton Hall
7. Georgetown
8. Providence
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Wisconsin
2. Purdue
3. Northwestern
4. Michigan
5. Indiana
6. Minnesota
7. Maryland
8. Michigan St.
9. Ohio St.
10. Illinois 
11. Penn St.
12. Iowa
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Big 12

1. West Virgina
2. Baylor
3. Kansas
4. Kansas St.
5. Iowa St.
6. TCU
7. Oklahoma St.
8. Texas Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Pac-12

1. Arizona
2. Oregon
3. UCLA
4. USC
5. Utah
6. California
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. South Carolina
3. Florida
4. Arkansas
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Alabama
8. Texas A&M
9. Vanderbilt
10. Mississippi St.
11. Auburn
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Missouri

Other Conferences Top Teams

Competing for NCAA Tournament bids (automatic or at-large depending on league)

Atlantic 10

1. Dayton
2. Virginia Commonwealth
3. Rhode Island

America East

1. Vermont
2. New Hamsphire
3. Albany

American Athletic

1. Cincinnati
2. SMU
3. Houston

Atlantic Sun

1. Florida Gulf Coast
2. Lipscomb
3. North Florida

Big Sky

1. Weber St.
2. Eastern Washington

Big South

1. Winthrop
2. UNC-Asheville

Big West

1. UC-Irvine
2. UC-Davis
3. Long Beach St.

Colonial

1. UNC-Wilmington
2. College of Charleston

Conference USA

1. Middle Tennessee
2. Louisiana Tech

Horizon

1. Valparaiso
2. Oakland

Ivy

1. Princeton
2. Yale
3. Harvard

Metro Atlantic

1. Monmouth
2. Iona
3. Canisius
4. St. Peter’s

Mid-American

1. Akron
2. Eastern Michigan
3. Ohio U

Mideastern Athletic

1. Morgan St.
2. Norfolk St.
3. UM-Eastern Shore
4. Hampton

Missouri Valley

1. Wichita St.
2. Illinois St.

Mountain West

1. Nevada
2. San Diego St.
3. Boise St.

Northeast

1. Mount St. Mary’s
2. Fairleigh-Dickinson
3. Wagner

Ohio Valley

1. Belmont
2. Murray St.

Patriot

1. Bucknell
2. Lehigh

Sun Belt

1. UT-Arlington
2. Arkansas St.

Southern

1. Chattanooga
2. East Tennessee
3. UNC-Greensboro

Southland

1. New Orleans
2. Sam Houston St.

Summit

1. North Dakota St.
2. Fort Wayne
3. South Dakota
4. Denver

Southwestern Athletic

1. Texas Southern
2. Prairie View
3. Southern U

Western Athletic

1. New Mexico St.
2. Cal State Bakersfield

Grand Canyon is not eligible but would be number 2

West Coast

1. Gonzaga
2. Saint Mary’s
3. BYU

 

NCAA Sweet 16 Preview

PiRate Ratings For Thursday and Friday

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Red	White	Blue
Villanova	Miami	3	3	2
Oklahoma	Texas A&M	2	2	-3
Kansas	Maryland	7	3	11
Oregon	Duke	1	-1	5
Virginia	Iowa St.	2	3	3
Notre Dame	Wisconsin	1	1	-2
Syracuse	Gonzaga	-3	-2	-2
North Carolina	Indiana	5	4	9

To those of you that read our annual bracket-picking story last week, you have our sincere apologies.  Never before has our top-rated team lost in its first game in the NCAA Tournament, but Middle Tennessee shocked us for the second time in NCAA Tournament history.  The first time, our founder had two tickets to the 1982 Mideast Regional, and once Kentucky disposed of little Middle Tennessee, he had a solid offer for $850 for each ticket two days later when Kentucky faced Louisville for the first time in a quarter century.  Those tickets became worthless when Middle upset Kentucky.

So, what’s left to say after Michigan State was sent packing?  There isn’t anything to say other than let’s get over it and proceed with our current update.

Because the entire world’s bracket has been busted after the first weekend, most places allow the fan to start anew with the Sweet 16 bracket.  If you still have faith in our system, and we do, since most of the 16 surviving teams fit the criteria, we will show you how we see it from here.

First, let us point out that no surprise teams remain in the tournament.  All 16 teams are consistent top programs, and only Gonzaga fails to come from a Power Conference.  Gonzaga today is what UNLV was 25 years ago and Davidson was 50 years ago.  The Bulldogs should eventually make it to the Final Four.

 

Here are the PiRate Criteria Stats for the remaining 16 teams.

Team	PPG	Def	Marg.	FGM	RbM	TOM	R+T	WLRd	SOS	OPos	DPos	Pos/G
Villanova	77.5	63.6	13.9	7.3	1.9	2.7	10.0	16-4	58.54	2450	2440	67.9
Miami	75.4	66.7	8.7	5.2	2.4	0.8	9.3	12-6	58.22	2257	2268	66.5
Oklahoma	80.6	70.7	9.9	5.3	2.2	-0.1	6.8	13-6	58.74	2448	2451	72.0
Texas A&M	76.8	66.1	10.7	4.8	4.5	2.3	15.5	11-7	55.70	2506	2500	69.5
Kansas	82.0	67.9	14.1	10.0	5.3	0.7	14.2	15-4	60.22	2548	2550	70.8
Maryland	76.1	66.3	9.7	8.3	3.1	-1.7	7.3	11-7	56.77	2367	2350	67.4
Oregon	78.9	68.5	10.4	4.6	3.4	2.8	14.7	12-6	60.01	2514	2513	69.8
Duke	79.7	70.2	9.5	1.9	-0.3	2.4	6.5	10-7	58.97	2341	2346	67.0
Virginia	70.9	59.5	11.3	7.2	3.8	2.4	13.5	13-7	60.05	2151	2146	61.4
Iowa St.	82.1	74.7	7.4	6.8	-0.2	0.9	4.2	9-9	58.96	2451	2468	72.3
Notre Dame	75.6	70.5	5.1	4.8	2.5	-0.5	7.8	9-9	57.25	2218	2228	65.4
Wisconsin	68.1	63.9	4.3	-0.1	3.0	1.1	10.8	9-7	58.14	2187	2198	64.5
Syracuse	70.4	64.8	5.5	2.2	-0.7	1.2	3.4	8-9	56.21	2233	2236	65.7
Gonzaga	79.4	65.6	13.8	8.9	7.5	-1.0	16.9	17-3	52.35	2392	2404	68.5
North Carolina	81.8	69.3	12.5	6.8	8.3	2.2	22.4	15-5	57.74	2558	2531	70.7
Indiana	82.5	69.0	13.5	6.3	6.9	-0.4	16.8	10-7	53.79	2351	2354	69.2

Here are the 4-Factors Numbers for the remaining 16 teams

Team	EFG	DEFG	OR%	DOR%	TO%	DTU%	FT*	DFT*
Villanova	55.1	46.3	28.4	28.7	16.4	20.4	21.9	17.0
Miami	54.0	47.7	30.2	29.2	16.4	17.5	25.2	17.7
Oklahoma	54.7	46.7	30.6	30.1	17.9	17.7	20.6	16.2
Texas A&M	51.6	47.1	34.9	29.2	17.4	20.8	22.0	17.9
Kansas	56.7	45.0	32.7	28.3	17.7	18.7	22.6	21.9
Maryland	55.7	46.2	29.8	29.7	19.0	16.6	23.6	16.8
Oregon	52.6	48.2	34.5	30.6	16.4	20.3	24.6	18.2
Duke	53.8	49.1	33.8	34.8	14.0	17.5	25.8	15.8
Virginia	54.8	48.3	30.2	25.4	15.1	19.1	20.8	18.8
Iowa St.	57.1	49.5	26.7	30.2	15.7	16.9	15.7	15.0
Notre Dame	54.1	49.2	33.0	31.5	15.3	14.5	21.4	17.2
Wisconsin	48.6	48.2	33.0	27.6	16.9	18.5	23.2	19.6
Syracuse	50.7	46.8	33.3	35.0	18.5	20.3	21.0	16.7
Gonzaga	55.4	44.7	32.3	25.6	16.8	15.2	22.3	17.2
North Carolina	52.0	47.2	39.9	29.9	15.4	18.6	20.8	17.9
Indiana	58.9	49.4	37.1	28.8	19.7	19.1	20.5	16.7

Sweet 16 Schedule

Thursday, March 23, 2016, Sweet 16 Games
Time (EDT)	Network	Seed	Team	Seed	Team
7:10 PM	CBS	2	Villanova	3	Miami
7:37 PM	TBS	2	Oklahoma	3	Texas A&M
9:40 PM	CBS	1	Kansas	5	Maryland
10:07 PM	TBS	1	Oregon	4	Duke
Friday, March 24, 2016, Sweet 16 Games
Time (EDT)	Network	Seed	Team	Seed	Team
7:10 PM	CBS	1	Virginia	4	Iowa St.
7:27 PM	TBS	6	Notre Dame	7	Wisconsin
9:40 PM	CBS	10	Syracuse	11	Gonzaga
9:57 PM	TBS	1	North Carolina	5	Indiana

 

Here is our updated bracket for the remainder of the tournament.  This uses our PiRate Criteria and is not the same thing as the PiRate Red-White-Blue Ratings above.

Sweet 16

Villanova over Miami

Texas A&M over Oklahoma

Kansas over Maryland

Oregon over Duke

Virginia over Iowa St.

Wisconsin over Notre Dame

Gonzaga over Syracuse

North Carolina over Indiana

 

Elite 8

Texas A&M over Villanova

Kansas over Oregon

Virginia over Wisconsin

North Carolina over Gonzaga

 

Semifinals

Kansas over Texas A&M

North Carolina over Virginia

 

Championship

Kansas over North Carolina

NCAA 3rd Round Picks–Saturday, March 19, 2016

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Red	White	Blue
Miami	Wichita St.	-1	2	-3
Duke	Yale	4	6	11
Kentucky	Indiana	2	1	3
Iowa St.	UALR	6	6	8
Virginia	Butler	7	6	9
Kansas	Connecticut	7	4	15
Utah	Gonzaga	-2	-1	-1
North Carolina	Providence	10	8	22

 

Saturday Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Higher Seed	Lower Seed
12:10 PM	CBS	Miami (Fla.)	Wichita St.
2:40 PM	CBS	Duke	Yale
5:15 PM	CBS	Kentucky	Indiana
6:10 PM	TNT	Iowa St.	UALR
7:10 PM	TBS	Virginia	Butler
7:45 PM	CBS	Kansas	Connecticut
8:40 PM	TNT	Utah	Gonzaga
9:40 PM	TBS	North Carolina	Providence

 

PiRate Ratings For NCAA Tournament Round of 64

Thursday, March 17
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Red	White	Blue
Kansas	Austin Peay	22	23	31
Colorado	Connecticut	-3	-2	-4
Arizona	Wichita St.	1	4	1
Miami	Buffalo	12	13	14
Baylor	Yale	3	3	11
Duke	UNC-Wilmington	6	8	12
North Carolina	Florida Gulf Coast	19	21	25
USC	Providence	1	1	3
Indiana	Chattanooga	10	8	11
Kentucky	Stony Brook	11	10	10
Virginia	Hampton	20	25	33
Texas Tech	Butler	-1	-1	-2
Purdue	UALR	6	7	17
Iowa St.	Iona	8	10	13
Seton Hall	Gonzaga	1	-1	-1
Utah	Fresno St.	7	8	15
Friday, March 18
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Red	White	Blue
Maryland	South Dakota St.	6	7	8
California	Hawaii	5	6	11
Iowa	Temple	8	6	9
Villanova	UNC-Asheville	13	14	22
Oregon	Holy Cross	22	25	35
St. Joseph’s	Cincinnati	1	-2	1
Texas	Northern Iowa	5	6	10
Texas A&M	Green Bay	9	12	18
Oregon St.	VCU	-2	-4	-4
Oklahoma	Cal State Bakersfield	11	13	20
Notre Dame	Michigan	2	3	1
West Virginia	Stephen F. Austin	6	8	12
Wisconsin	Pittsburgh	1	1	-1
Xavier	Weber St.	13	13	17
Dayton	Syracuse	-1	-1	2
Michigan St.	Middle Tennessee	16	16	21

NCAA Men’s Basketball Conference Tournament Update: 3/10/16

Teams Earning Automatic Bids

Ohio Valley: Austin Peay (18-17)

Ivy League: Yale (22-6)

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast (20-13)

Big South: UNC-Asheville (22-11)

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (22-12)

Colonial Athletic: UNC-Wilmington (25-7)

Metro Atlantic: Iona (22-10)

Southern: Chattanooga (29-5)

Horizon: Green Bay (23-12)

Northeast: Fairleigh-Dickinson (18-14)

Summit: South Dakota St. (26-7)

West Coast: Gonzaga (26-7)

Patriot: Holy Cross 14-19

 

Automatic Bids Awarded Today

None

 

Other Tournaments In Action Today

American Athletic Conference Tournament

Site: Orlando

1st Round

Thursday, March 10

G1: #8 East Carolina (12-19) vs. #9 South Florida (7-24)

G2: #7 Central Florida (12-17) vs. #10 Tulane (10-21)

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament

Site: Brooklyn

2nd Round

Thursday, March 10

G3: #8 Fordham (17-12) vs. #9 Richmond (15-15)

G4: #5 George Washington (22-9) vs. #13 St. Louis (11-20)

G5: #7 Rhode Island (17-14) vs. #10 U Mass (13-17)

G6: #6 Davidson (18-11) vs. #14 LaSalle (9-21)

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament

Sites: Washington, DC

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G7: #1 North Carolina (25-6) vs.#8 Pittsburgh (21-10)

G8: #4 Notre Dame (20-10) vs. #5 Duke (23-9)

G9: #2 Virginia (24-6) vs. #10 Georgia Tech (19-13)

G10: #3 Miami (24-6) vs. #6 Virginia Tech (19-13)

Big 12 Conference Tournament

Site: Kansas City

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G3: #4 Texas (20-11) vs. #5 Baylor (21-10)

G4: #1 Kansas (27-4) vs. #8 Kansas St. (17-15)

G5: #2 West Virginia (24-7) vs. #10 TCU (12-20)

G6: #3 Oklahoma (24-6) vs. #6 Iowa St. (21-10)

Big East Conference Tournament

Site: New York

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G3: #1 Villanova (27-4) vs. #8 Georgetown (15-17)

G4: #4 Providence (22-9) vs. #5 Butler (21-9)

G5: #2 Xavier (26-4) vs. #7 Marquette (20-12)

G6: #3 Seton Hall (22-8) vs. #6 Creighton (18-13)

Big Sky Conference Tournament

Site: Reno, NV

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G5: #1 Weber St. (23-8) vs. #8 Portland St. (13-17)

G6: #4 Idaho St. (16-14) vs. #5 North Dakota (16-14)

G7: #2 Montana (19-10) vs. #10 Sacramento St. (14-16)

G8: #3 Idaho (20-11) vs. #6 Eastern Washington (17-14)

Big Ten Conference Tournament

Site: Indianapolis

Second Round

Thursday, March 10

G3: #8 Michigan (20-11) vs. #9 Northwestern (20-11)

G4: #5 Iowa (21-9) vs. #12 Illinois (14-18)

G5: #7 Ohio St. (19-12) vs. #10 Penn St. (16-15)

G6: #6 Wisconsin (20-11) vs. #11 Nebraska (15-17)

Big West Conference Tournament

Site: Anaheim

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

#4 UCSB (17-12) vs. #5 UC Davis (10-18)

#1 Hawaii (24-5) vs. #8 Cal St. Fullerton (10-19)

#2 UC-Irvine (24-8) vs. #7 Cal Poly (10-19)

#3 Long Beach St. (18-13) vs. #6 UC Riverside (14-18)

Conference USA Tournament

Site: Birmingham

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G6: #1 UAB (26-5) vs. #8 Western Kentucky (17-15)

G7: #4 Louisiana Tech (23-8) vs. #5 Old Dominion (20-12)

G8: #2 Middle Tennessee (21-9) vs. #7 Charlotte (14-18)

G9: #3 Marshall (16-15) vs. #6 UTEP (19-13)

Mid-American Conference Tournament

Site: Cleveland

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G5: #1 Akron (24-7) vs. #8 Eastern Michigan (18-14)

G6: #4 Central Michigan (17-14) vs. #12 Bowling Green (15-17)

G7: #2 Ohio (20-10) vs. #7 Northern Illnois (21-11)

G8: #3 Buffalo (17-14) vs. #11 Miami (O) (13-19)

Mid-eastern Athletic Conference Tournament

Site: Norfolk, VA

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G7: #3 South Carolina St. (17-13) vs. #11 Coppin St. (9-21)

G8: #4 Bethune-Cookman (14-17) vs. #5 Savannah St. (15-14)

Mountain West Conference Tournament

Site: Las Vegas

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G4: #1 San Diego St. (23-8) vs. #9 Utah St. (16-14)

G5: #4 New Mexico (17-14) vs. #5 Nevada (18-12)

G6: #2 Fresno St. (22-9) vs. #7 UNLV (18-14)

G7: #3 Boise St. (20-11) vs. #6 Colorado St. (17-15)

Pac-12 Conference Tournament

Site: Las Vegas

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G5: #1 Oregon (25-6) vs. #8 Washington (18-13)

G6: #4 Arizona (24-7) vs. #5 Colorado (22-10)

G7: #2 Utah (24-7) vs. #7 USC (21-11)

G8: #3 California (22-9) vs. #6 Oregon St. (19-11)

Southeastern Conference Tournament

Site: Nashville

2nd Round

Thursday, March 10

G2: #8 Florida (18-13) vs. #9 Arkansas (16-15)

G3: #5 Vanderbilt (19-12) vs. #12 Tennessee (14-18)

G4: #7 Ole Miss (20-11) vs. #10 Alabama (17-13)

G5: #6 Georgia (17-12) vs. #11 Mississippi St. (14-16)

Southland Conference Tournament

Site: Katy, TX

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G3: #4 Houston Baptist (16-15) vs. #5 Southeastern Louisiana (12-20)

G4: #3 Sam Houston (17-14) vs. #7 Nicholls St. (11-22)

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament

Site: Houston

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G5: #3 Jackson St. (17-14) vs. #6 Prairie View A&M (7-23)

G6; #4 Southern (19-12) vs. #5 Alabama St. (14-16)

Sun Belt Conference Tournament

Site: New Orleans

1st Round

Thursday, March 10

G1: #5 Georgia Southern (14-16) vs. #8 South Alabama (13-18)

G2: #6 Georgia St. (16-13) vs. #7 Texas St. (14-15)

Western Athletic Conference Tournament

Site: Las Vegas

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 10

G1: #4 Utah Valley (12-17) vs. #5 Missouri-KC (11-18)

G2: #2 Cal St. Bakersfield (21-8) vs. #7 Chicago St. (4-27)

G3: #3 Seattle (13-15) vs. #6 UT-Rio Grande Valley (8-21)

 

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology

Our 32 Gurus have been up late working hard trying to come to a 68-team consensus, but there is still disagreement among the numerical geniuses.  As of this morning, 12 Bubble teams are fighting for 7 At-large berths.  Those 12 teams are in order of best to worst in our current ballot:

1. Pittsburgh
2. Vanderbilt
3. Wichita St.
4. Connecticut
5. Temple
6. Syracuse
7. VCU
8. Saint Mary’s
9. Tulsa
10. Monmouth
11. Florida
12. George Washington

There are still a few teams that can upset this list of 12 if they win their conference tournaments or in the case of one or two teams, advance to the finals of their conference tournament.  Among this group include:

1. Davidson and Rhode Island out of the A-10
2. Kansas State in the Big 12
3. Georgetown and Creighton out of the Big East
4. Northwestern and Ohio St. out of the Big Ten
5. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Georgia out of the SEC

Here is the up-to-the-minute Bracketology for Thursday morning, March 10.

Seed	Team	Auto. Bid
1	Virginia
1	Kansas
1	Villanova
1	Oklahoma
2	Michigan St.
2	North Carolina
2	Xavier
2	Oregon
3	Miami (Fla.)
3	West Virginia
3	Utah
3	Indiana
4	Kentucky
4	Duke
4	Purdue
4	Texas A&M
5	Maryland
5	Iowa St.
5	Iowa
5	California
6	Arizona
6	Texas
6	Baylor
6	Dayton
7	Notre Dame
7	Wisconsin
7	Seton Hall
7	Texas Tech
8	Colorado
8	Providence
8	Butler
8	St. Joseph’s
9	Oregon St.
9	USC
9	Cincinnati
9	South Carolina
10	St. Bonaventure
10	Gonzaga	West Coast
10	Pittsburgh
10	Vanderbilt
11	San Diego St.
11	Wichita St.
11	Connecticut
11	UALR
11	Temple
12	Akron
12	Syracuse
12	VCU
12	Chattanooga	Southern
12	Yale	Ivy
13	South Dakota St.	Summit
13	Northern Iowa	MVC
13	UNC-Wilmington	Colonial
13	Stony Brook
14	Hawaii
14	UAB
14	Iona	MAAC
14	Stephen F. Austin
15	New Mexico St.
15	Green Bay	Horizon
15	Weber St.
15	UNC-Asheville	Big South
16	Florida Gulf Coast	Atlantic Sun
16	Hampton
16	Fairleigh Dickinson	Northeast
16	Austin Peay	Ohio Valley
16	Holy Cross	Patriot
16	Texas Southern

 

Last 4 Byes

Wichita St.

Vanderbilt

Pittsburgh

St. Bonaventure

 

Last 4 IN–Play-in Round in Dayton

Connecticut

Temple

Syracuse

VCU

 

#16 Seeds Headed to Dayton

Texas Southern

Fairleigh Dickinson

Austin Peay

Holy Cross

 

1st Four Out

Saint Mary’s

Tulsa

Monmouth

Florida