The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 18, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:11 pm

February 18, 2019

Seed

School

Conf.

1

Gonzaga

West Coast

1

Duke

ACC

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Houston

American Athletic

3

Kansas

Big 12

3

Nevada

Mountain West

4

LSU

SEC

4

Marquette

Big East

4

Iowa St.

Big 12

4

Virginia Tech

ACC

5

Louisville

ACC

5

Iowa

Big Ten

5

Texas Tech

Big 12

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

6

Villanova

Big East

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Florida St.

ACC

6

Kansas St.

Big 12

7

Cincinnati

American Athletic

7

Buffalo

Mid-American

7

Auburn

SEC

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

8

Wofford

Southern

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

Ole Miss

SEC

9

TCU

Big 12

9

Texas

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Utah St.

Mountain West

10

St. John’s 

Big East

10

Syracuse

ACC

10

Minnesota

Big Ten

10

Central Florida

American Athletic

11

Temple

American Athletic

11

Oklahoma

Big 12

11

Clemson

ACC

11

Ohio St.

Big Ten

11

Seton Hall

Big East

12

Alabama

SEC

12

Butler

Big East

12

Hofstra

Colonial

12

Lipscomb

Atlantic Sun

12

Virginia Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Belmont

Ohio Valley

13

Vermont

America East

13

Yale

Ivy League

14

Old Dominion

CUSA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit

14

UC Irvine

Big West

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Missouri St.

Missouri Valley

15

Radford

Big South

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Sam Houston St.

Southland

16

Rider

Metro Atlantic

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

St. Francis (PA)

Northeast

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

 

First Four OUT

Indiana

Florida

Arizona St.

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

Murray St.

 

Last Four IN

Ohio St.

Seton Hall

Alabama

Butler

 

Last Four BYES

Central Florida

Temple

Oklahoma

Clemson

 

First Four

For the first time this year, we have staggered the seed lines for the First Four games involving the final four at-large bids.  We have one game pitting 11-seeds and another game pitting 12-seeds.  This could change before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the First Four games have mostly  been with 11-seeds, but there have been 12-seeds, and even 13-seeds and 14-seeds earlier in this decade.

Because of the rule that no teams from the same conference can face off in the First Four games, we had to move two teams in the seed line to prevent a conference matchup in Dayton.

11-Seed Line: Ohio State vs. Seton Hall

12-Seed Line: Alabama vs. Butler

16-Seed Line: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

16-Seed Line: Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

There are four teams that if they lose in their conference tournament, they will still be an at-large entry, and their conference will improve from one to two bids.

Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference

Washington in the Pac-12 Conference

Wofford in the Southern Conference

Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference

 

There are four other Mid-Major teams that need to be in the discussion by the Selection Committee (in addition to the Mid-Majors already on our Bubble above).

Murray State (or Belmont) in the Ohio Valley Conference

Liberty (or Lipscomb) in the Atlantic Sun Conference

Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference

Toledo in the Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

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February 15, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, February 15, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:28 pm

February 15, 2019

Seed

SCHOOL

Conf.

1

Duke

ACC

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

1

Gonzaga

WCC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Houston

AAC

3

Texas Tech

Big 12

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Nevada

MWC

4

Kansas

Big 12

4

LSU

SEC

4

Marquette

Big East

4

Louisville

ACC

5

Iowa St.

Big 12

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

5

Villanova

Big East

5

Virginia Tech

ACC

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Cincinnati

AAC

6

Buffalo

MAC

6

Iowa

Big Ten

7

Florida St.

ACC

7

Kansas St.

Big 12

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

7

Auburn

SEC

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Ole Miss

SEC

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

TCU

Big 12

9

Texas

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Utah St.

MWC

9

Central Florida

AAC

10

Florida

SEC

10

Oklahoma

Big 12

10

Clemson

ACC

10

Alabama

SEC

11

St. John’s

Big East

11

Ohio St.

Big Ten

11

Syracuse

ACC

11

Butler

Big East

11

Seton Hall

Big East

11

Minnesota

Big Ten

12

Wofford

SoCon

12

Lipscomb

ASUN

12

VCU

Atlantic 10

12

Hofstra

CAA

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Yale

Ivy League

13

Belmont

OVC

13

Vermont

America East

14

Old Dominion

C-USA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit League

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

14

UC Irvine

Big West

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Loyola (Chi)

MVC

15

Radford

Big South

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Abilene Christian

Southland

16

Quinnipiac

MAAC

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

St. Francis (PA)

NEC

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

Last 4 Byes

Clemson

Alabama

St. John’s (NY)

Ohio St.

Last 4 In

Syracuse

Butler

Seton Hall

Minnesota

First 4 Out

Indiana

Temple

Seton Hall

UNC Greensboro

Next 4 Out

Florida

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

First Four Pairings

Syracuse vs. Seton Hall

Butler vs. Minnesota

Quinnipiac vs. Norfolk St.

Texas Southern vs. St. Francis (PA)

Beginning today, we are using all the same criteria being used by the Selection Committee to pick the bracket the way we believe the Committee will select.  Based on the Committee’s 16-team preview last weekend, we adjusted our bracket to try to mimic their actions.  The major adjustment was increasing the clout of strength of schedules.  Thus, we greatly downgraded all the Mid-Major and Low-Major contenders.

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 13, 2019

Bubbles Are Boiling

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:16 pm

Five Sundays from today, the NCAA Selection Committee will choose and seed the 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament.  At the present time, the Bubble list has begun to emerge with greater clarity.  There are about three dozen teams still competing for at-large bids, and more than half will not get into the Dance.

Some of the teams under consideration will eventually receive automatic bids when they win their conference tournaments.  On the other hand, there could be a few major upsets in the power conference tournaments forcing a bubble to pierce for one of these teams.

Let’s look at the principle boiling bubbles today.  We will let you decide if their resumes warrant bids or warrant bans to the NIT.

Team

Net

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Alabama

44

2-6

6-1

4-2

3-0

Arizona State

72

3-1

4-3

3-1

6-2

Baylor

32

3-5

7-1

1-0

5-2

Belmont

60

3-1

2-1

2-2

11-0

Butler

53

1-7

6-3

4-1

3-0

Central Florida

45

0-2

4-2

7-0

6-1

Clemson

39

2-6

2-2

5-0

6-0

Creighton

57

2-9

3-2

4-0

3-0

Davidson

68

0-2

3-1

6-3

8-0

Florida

42

1-9

3-1

3-1

5-0

Hofstra

51

0-2

0-1

4-1

16-0

Indiana

49

4-8

2-3

1-0

6-0

Lipscomb

30

2-3

2-1

2-0

12-0

Minnesota

58

3-6

4-2

4-0

5-0

New Mexico St.

59

0-1

2-1

8-2

9-0

North Carolina St

37

1-6

5-0

2-1

9-0

Ohio St.

36

4-5

3-2

4-0

5-0

Oklahoma

41

3-8

5-2

7-0

0-0

Ole Miss

35

3-7

3-0

4-0

6-0

Saint Mary’s

50

1-5

1-2

6-3

7-0

San Francisco

52

0-4

1-1

5-1

11-0

Seton Hall

69

2-6

7-1

2-2

3-0

St. John’s

48

4-4

4-1

2-2

8-0

TCU

33

1-7

5-0

7-0

4-0

Temple

55

1-5

5-1

4-1

7-0

Texas

34

4-6

4-4

3-1

3-0

Toledo

54

0-1

2-0

8-3

9-0

UNC Greensboro

46

1-3

1-0

5-0

13-0

Utah State

38

1-2

2-2

4-2

10-0

VCU

43

1-3

2-2

7-1

7-0

Wofford

28

2-4

3-0

4-0

9-0

Yale

62

0-3

1-0

5-1

8-0

 

Team

EFF.

SOS

Rd/Neut

Con

Ovr

Alabama

48

17

6-7

6-5

15-9

Arizona State

63

66

5-4

7-4

16-7

Baylor

34

50

5-4

7-4

16-8

Belmont

64

160

8-3

10-2

19-4

Butler

53

25

4-8

5-7

14-11

Central Florida

50

89

6-3

7-3

17-5

Clemson

31

36

4-6

5-5

15-8

Creighton

49

12

5-6

4-7

13-11

Davidson

75

106

7-6

9-2

18-6

Florida

38

29

5-7

4-6

12-11

Hofstra

67

225

7-4

11-1

21-4

Indiana

45

37

3-7

4-9

13-11

Lipscomb

33

204

9-3

11-0

20-4

Minnesota

56

51

5-6

6-7

16-8

New Mexico St.

54

134

9-3

9-1

20-4

North Carolina St

40

194

5-4

5-6

17-7

Ohio St.

32

49

6-3

6-6

16-7

Oklahoma

42

7

7-6

3-9

15-10

Ole Miss

39

63

7-4

6-4

16-7

Saint Mary’s

44

47

3-8

6-4

15-10

San Francisco

47

121

5-5

6-4

18-6

Seton Hall

66

40

6-6

5-6

14-9

St. John’s

52

57

7-4

6-6

18-7

TCU

37

20

6-5

5-6

17-7

Temple

76

56

8-5

7-4

17-7

Texas

28

3

4-6

6-6

14-11

Toledo

51

126

9-3

8-3

20-4

UNC Greensboro

80

188

10-2

11-1

22-3

Utah State

43

115

8-5

8-3

18-6

VCU

46

54

6-5

8-2

17-6

Wofford

30

133

8-3

13-0

21-4

Yale

72

123

7-4

5-1

15-4

 

Here’s an explanation of each column

Net: This is their official NCAA NET rating, the new and improved formula that supersedes all other, like the RPI.

Q1-Q4: These are the won-loss records for each quadrant.  The Quadrants are broken up into these groups.

Quadrant #

Home

Neutral

Road

Quadrant 1

1-30

1-50

1-75

Quadrant 2

31-75

51-100

76-135

Quadrant 3

76-160

101-200

136-240

Quadrant 4

161-353

201-353

241-353

If you play the #101 team at home, this is a Quadrant 3 opponent.  If you play the #101 team on their floor, this is a Quadrant 2 opponent.  If you host the #50 team, it counts as Quadrant 2, but if you play that team on a neutral floor or on the road, it is a Quadrant 1 game.

EFF.: This is the ranking in total efficiency, which is offensive efficiency combined with defensive efficiency and adjusted for strength of schedule.

SOS: This is the ranking of strengths of schedule for each team.  Keep in mind that the difference between #1 and #50 may be minimal, while the difference between #51 and #100 may be considerably more.

Rd/Neut: This is the combined road and neutral court won-loss records

Con and Ovr: Although not used by the Committee, this is the conference and overall won-loss records for each team for you to look at and decide for yourself if a certain team belongs in the Dance.  We are not 100% convinced that committee members don’t subconsciously let this stat creep into their decision-making process.  If a team finishes four games under .500 in their league while another finishes four game over .500, that four game swing is going to count for something, even if it isn’t supposed to count.

Trying To Think Like A Committee Member

Let’s look at each school on this list.

Alabama

With wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Committee might overlook losses to Northeastern and Georgia State.  Two of the Tide’s non-conference losses are to probable NCAA Tournament teams Central Florida and Baylor.  The Tide sits at 6-5 in the SEC and projects to a 10-8 or 11-7 final mark.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation with possibility of starting in Dayton.

Arizona St.

The Pac-12 surely cannot be limited to just one bid, can it?  The Committee is not supposed to look at this metric, but this is no different than when the judge tells the jury to disregard a remark from a sustained objection in a court room.  Of course, it is remembered.

Arizona State beat Kansas and Mississippi State.  This past weekend, they handed Washington their first Pac-12 loss.  The Sun Devils lost a close game to Nevada.  They also lost at home to Princeton and recently were blown out at home by Pac-12 cellar dweller Washington State by 21 points.  They also lost at SEC last place Vanderbilt by 16, and they barely beat SEC #13 Georgia.

Does the Kansas win and close loss to Nevada do enough for the Sun Devils?  Their NET rating is 72, and their strength of schedule is 66.  In their favor, Arizona State has a winning record away from Tempe.

Verdict: Sorry, nothing in the inbox but some ads for hotels near Madison Square Garden in late March that you probably won’t need.

Baylor

The Bears lost early in the season to some really weak teams in Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, but the TSU loss may turn out to be to a future NCAA Tournament team.  At 7-4 in the Big 12 with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and TCU, plus a sweep of Oklahoma, Baylor is on the inside as of now.  We project Baylor to finish 10-8 in the league, and with this league’s strength, Coach Scott Drew can sleep peacefully when his team is eventually ousted in the Big 12 Tournament.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and does not have to make travel arrangements to Dayton.

 

Belmont

Every year, Coach Rick Byrd has his Bruins among consideration for an NCAA Tournament bid, and this year is no different.  Belmont won at UCLA and Murray State, and they swept rival Lipscomb, who is in the top 30 and also in discussion for a potential at-large bid.  Among their losses is to Purdue in West Lafayette, but also among the losses are two to Jacksonville State.

We project Belmont to win out in the regular season to enter the OVC Tournament at 16-2 in the conference and 24-4 overall.  The Bruins will be the mild favorite to win the automatic bid, but Murray State, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville State will have shots as well.  If Belmont lost to Murray in the Championship Game and finished 26-5, the Bruins would have to be part of the at-large discussion.

Verdict: The Bruins need to win the automatic bid and then become a very game 12-seed.  Too many Bubble teams have to fold for Belmont to rise up and secure an at-large bid.  We believe as an automatic bid-winner and #12 seed, the Bruins are equipped with the talent and coaching to win their first tournament game after some near misses.

 

Butler

This Bulldogs team is not in the class with some of their recent NCAA Tournament teams.  A lone Quadrant 1 win came in a neutral contest with Florida, a team which they played a second time a month later and lost by close to 40 points.

The next most impressive victory is a home win over Ole Miss.  Butler’s NET rating of 53 is on the in-out line, but in their favor is a #25 strength of schedule

Verdict: We hear Dayton is lovely in March.  Even if it snows several inches, you will be very happy you got to visit Southwestern Ohio.  It’s an easy 2 hour drive.

 

Central Florida

The Golden Knights beat Alabama and Temple, and they lost to Houston.  UCF should get to 10 wins in the American Athletic Conference, but the Knights need to pull off one big win to solidify their at-large standing against their peers.  UCF will get that chance with games remaining with Cincinnati and Houston.  A sweep of South Florida might also be impressive enough to push them over the top.

Verdict: Hanging on to a First Four bid for now

 

Clemson

The Tigers don’t have many great wins on their schedule.  Their recent upset of Virginia Tech and an earlier win over Lipscomb are the only Quadrant 1 victories.  In their favor, they are 11-0 against Q3 and Q4 combined, so their losses have been to good or great teams.

We project CU to go 8-10 in ACC play, which in most years gets an ACC team into the field, whether it is deserved or not.  Clemson might need one more upset to complete their resume-building.  They certainly need to hold serve against the teams beneath them in the league.  A win tonight at Miami would be mighty.  We think that a win at home over Florida State, North Carolina, or Syracuse would give them all the juice they need.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and probably not one to Dayton

 

Creighton

The Big East is top heavy with two superior teams and a half dozen good but not great teams.  At 4-7 in league play, the Blue Jays have a lot of work left to do to get onto the upper half of the Bubble.

The one thing keeping Creighton in the discussion currently is the fact that they have played 12 Quadrant 1 games so far and have a top 15 strength of schedule.  However, they are only 2-10 in those games.

Creighton’s next four games are must-win games.  The Blue Jays have to take care of Xavier tonight in Cincinnati and then beat Seton Hall, DePaul, and Georgetown to improve to 8-7 when they travel to Marquette in March.  A 6-1 finish from here would put CU at 10-8 in the league and 19-12 overall, where an opening round win in the Big East Tournament would give the Blue Jays a strong chance to get in.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if they meet the parameters set above.  As of today, we’d say their invitation would be to host a game in the NIT.

 

Davidson

Bob McKillop is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball.  While Davidson has an exceptional history of greatness thanks to what legendary coach Lefty Driesell did 50 years ago, those were different times.  Driesell recruited four or five players as good as Stephen Curry, and he brought Davidson to the top five of the rankings in 1964, 1965, 1968, and 1969.  McKillop inherited a mess when he took over this program that was coming off a 24-loss season plus the transfer of their one good player.  He’s now led the Wildcats for 30 seasons!

Of course, none of this means anything to the Selection Committee.  Davidson’s resume is iffy at this point, and without an automatic bid, it looks like a slim possibility.  Their only quality win to date is a home game victory over conference co-contender Virginia Commonwealth.  This is their only win against a top 100 team, and it came at home.  Unless they face VCU in the Conference Tournament, they will face just one other top 100 team the rest of the way.  The stars just don’t align for the Wildcats this year.

Verdict: They better win the automatic bid or plan on playing in the NIT, CBI, or CIT

 

Florida

Coach Michael White is underachieving in Gainesville, and, following in the footsteps of Billy Donovan, could find his seat heating up quickly if the Gators miss out on this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Florida’s schedule is the only reason why at 4-6 in the SEC and 12-11 overall that they are still in consideration as an at-large team.  The Gators are looking at 8-10 in the league and 16-15 overall.  With that record, they will have to win at least three SEC Tournament games to even be in the final discussion.

Verdict: One of the biggest disappointments of the season does not receive an NCAA bid and may not receive an NIT bid either

 

Hofstra

Make no bones about it, Hofstra is not a real at-large candidate.  However, we wanted to list the Pride here to show you their resume.  At 21-4, the Pride has no Q1 or Q2 wins.  They are 16-0 against Q4, and their strength of schedule ranks 225.  We wanted to show them to you so you can compare them with the other Mid-major teams on this list.  We could have also shown you UC-Irvine, a team in a similar boat with Hofstra, while Wofford, UNC Greensboro, Belmont, and Lipscomb have some tiny at-large hopes.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if it is automatic

 

Indiana

This was supposed to be a much better year in Hoosierland, and like his brother Sean, Archie Miller has come under fire.  IU was supposed to contend with the Michigan schools and Purdue for the Big Ten title.  Instead, the Hoosiers find themselves mired in a tenth place tie in the Big Ten at 4-9/13-11.

Indiana has the bare minimum criteria to squeak in as a fortunate bubble team.  Their NET rating is just under 50, and most power league teams in the top 50 get into the field.  Their strength of schedule is 37, and this is okay for any major conference team on the bubble.  Their efficiency rating is also okay at 45, not great but adequate enough for a Big Ten team.

With 12 Quadrant 1 games and wins in four of those contests, the Hoosiers have proven they can compete at the top of the game.  Of their seven remaining games, five are against tough opponents, and Indiana needs to win two of those five games and four overall to enter the Big Ten Tournament not needing to win three games to feel comfortable about getting an at-large bid.

Verdict: At the present time, we have them as the #68 team in the field, and they would be slotted to go to Dayton, where they might have to play Butler. What a rivalry game played close enough for the fans to make the commute by car!

 

Lipscomb

The Atlantic Sun Conference is mid-major at best and borders on low-major status, but Florida Gulf Coast proved this league has the ability to send teams to the Sweet 16.

Lipscomb made its first NCAA Tournament appearance last year and scared North Carolina for a half.  This Bisons team is better than last year, and the former NAIA superpower might be talented enough to replicate what FGCU did earlier in the decade.

Lipscomb has played five Q1 games, all on the road and won twice, once against TCU.  They have no bad losses, going 14-0 against Q3 & Q4.  Among their losses is a four-pointer at Louisville.

If Lipscomb beats Liberty tonight in Nashville to complete the season sweep, they will almost assuredly win out to finish 16-0/25-4 before hosting all their conference tournament games.  It would take a lot to not be the automatic qualifier, but in the event they lost to Liberty in the finals, they would be 27-5 with a lot of positives on their resume.

Verdict: The Bisons are a very likely automatic qualifier, but if they were 27-5, it would take a lot of statistics-bending to exclude them from the at-large pool.  However, we have faith that the Selection Committee would find ways to ship Lipscomb to the NIT in favor of the ninth place team in the ACC or 10th place team in the Big Ten or even the fifth best Big East team, or even TCU who lost at home to this Lipscomb team.

 

Minnesota

Richard Pitino, Saul Phillips, Murray Bartow, and Bryce Drew know what it is like to have fathers that enjoyed long, successful careers in college basketball.  They also know what it is like to have their team’s fanatics wishing that those great coaches had created daughters rather than sons.  Pitino is on very thin ice in Minneapolis, and the Gophers must make the Big Dance if Pitino is to stay employed in the Cities in 2020.

The Gophers are in 8th place in the Big Ten with a 16-8 record overall.  This is just enough to meet the minimum for a Big Ten team.  Their NET rating is 59, which is right on the line for average lowest rating that gets in.  Three Quad 1 wins and a 5-6 record away from home gives the Gophers a decent shot at making the field.

Minnesota’s closing schedule could cinch their bid or kill their chances.  Their more winnable games are on the road, and the tougher opponents must come to Minneapolis.  Tonight’s game at Nebraska could be a bell-weather contest.  A loss might open the door for another bubble team to step up and pass the Gophers.

Verdict: For now, we believe the Selection Committee would send the Gophers an Invitation and even allow them to avoid the First Four.  However, a 3-4 finish to give UM a 9-11 mark in the league and 19-12 overall might put Minny on the wrong side of the Bubble if they lost their first Big Ten Tournament game.  Pitino loses his job if UM misses the Dance.

 

New Mexico St.

New Mexico State is not getting an at-large bid, even if the Aggies win out until the WAC Championship Game and then lose to Grand Canyon or Cal St. Bakersfield by one point in overtime.

Let’s look at their resume.  They lost at Kansas by three points, and that was their only Q1 game.  Even had they beaten Kansas by three, their resume is too thin with just one Q1 game.

NMSU is just one spot behind Minnesota in the NET Ratings, and the Aggies are 9-3 away from Las Cruces.  However, their strength of schedule rates at number 134, and we learned from the top-16 seed reveal last week just how much this year’s Committee valued strength of schedule.

Verdict: No At-large chance, but we believe this team could be 30-4 when they win the WAC’s automatic bid.  Coach Chris Jans has overcome a lot of adversity to resurrect his career.  NMSU will be a dangerous 12 or 13 seed.

 

North Carolina St.

Kevin Keatts is one of our favorite basketball coaches.  We are in high regard of his ability to evaluate talent and alter his schemes to best exploit opponent weaknesses and utilize his talent.  Even that embarrassing oops loss to Virginia Tech does not alter our opinion.  Keatts is a Final Four coach of the future, be it here or some place else.

This Wolf Pack team is not going to advance very far in the NCAA Tournament, but they will almost definitely receive a bid based on their results so far.

When an ACC team has a top 40 NET rating, they are going dancing.  NCSU is presently #39.  The Wolf Pack currently has a winning record away from Raleigh.

All is not peachy though with their resume.  Their Strength of Schedule is an unheard of for an ACC team #194, because they played six of the bottom 34 teams in Division 1, including the two weakest of all.  State only has one Q1 win all year, a home victory over Auburn which looks less impressive now than it did then.

The Pack can easily finish the regular season on a 5-2 sprint to a 10-8 regular season conference record, which gets an ACC team an at-large bid better than 95% of the time.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation as one of the last teams in that do not play in the First Four

 

Ohio St.

The Buckeyes really should not be in this discussion.  The only reason why we include them here is that they still need to avoid a total collapse.  At 6-6/16-7, if OSU goes 3-5 down the stretch, they will get into the field.

Road wins over Cincinnati, Indiana, and Creighton are impressive enough already, but we see the Buckeyes finishing no worse than 4-4 and possibly 5-3 to make their selection quite easy.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Oklahoma

Can a team that is 3-9 in their conference really be in the hunt for an at-large bid?  Oklahoma certainly hopes so, and thanks to the Big 12’s overall concentration of power, the Sooners do have a legitimate chance to get into the Field of 68 with a conference mark no better than 7-11.

In OU’s favor is a schedule that faced no Q4 teams and just seven Q3 teams.  Oklahoma went 7-0 in those games.  Their overall strength of schedule is #7, which means that a winning overall record is going to be enough to give them a chance.

Oklahoma has six games remaining prior to the league tourney, and if they go 3-3 with one of those wins coming against Kansas, and then they win their first Big 12 Tournament game, the Sooners will be in good enough shape to expect great things on March 17.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they go 3-3 plus one Big 12 Tournament win

 

Ole Miss

Ole Miss is 16-7, and all seven of their losses came to Q1 teams!  They have three Q1 wins, including one on the road against Mississippi State.

A 35 NET rating and 39 Efficiency rating makes their resume complete.  At this point, Ole Miss is competing for a 7 or 8 seed and not needing to worry about missing out on the Dance, unless they totally collapse.  Coach Kermit Davis has done an incredible job in his first year in Oxford.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Saint Mary’s

The Gaels have received an at-large bid in the past, but they also beat Gonzaga in the past.  This year, it appears out of reach, and a 11-5/22-12 final record (the best possible without beating Gonzaga, is most likely to fall short of the minimum needed criteria.

Verdict: SMC is going to have to beat Gonzaga to have any chance, and most likely, that win will have to come in the finals of the WCC Tournament, which would then give the Gaels the automatic bid and Gonzaga an at-large bid at the expense of another team on this list.

 

San Francisco

At one time earlier this year, USF looked like a potential at-large team.  A 13-point loss at home to Gonzaga followed by losses at Saint Mary’s and San Diego, basically necessitated winning at Gonzaga to have a real chance.  The Zags ran the Dons off the floor, ending USF’s at-large possibilities.

Verdict: No bid unless USF pulls off the upset and wins the West Coast Tournament Championship.  We cannot see USF beating Gonzaga, but if the Dons earn the #2 or #3 seed in the conference tournament, while BYU earns the #4 seed, then the Dons could hope that the Cougars upset Gonzaga, giving them a chance to knock off BYU for the automatic bid.

 

Seton Hall

Seton Hall is in a similar boat to Butler and Creighton in the up and down Big East race.  The Pirates have some pluses and some minuses in their quest to get a bid.

On the plus side are wins over Kentucky and Maryland, but countering those two great Q1 victories are losses at home to St. Louis and DePaul.  Three of their Q1 losses were by five points or less, and they have only played seven games against Q3 & Q4 teams.

With a 69 NET Rating, the Pirates need to improve their standing in the last five weeks.  The schedule is quite tough with the top two Big East teams (Villanova and Marquette) still on the schedule, and the Hall has road games with Creighton, St. John’s, and Georgetown.  We expect SHU to enter the Big East Tournament at 7-11/16-14, and the Big East is not strong enough for a team with fewer than 10 conference wins or nine with a couple of conference tournament wins to get in.

Verdict: Looks like they will be disappointed on Selection Sunday without an upset of Marquette or Villanova and a 9-9 Big East record

 

St. John’s

St. John’s is only a half-game in front of Seton Hall, but their resume might as well be 20 games ahead.  The Red Storm have played a much tougher schedule this year, and schedule strength appears to be very important, just behind NET Ratings, with the Committee.  Sweeps of Marquette and Creighton with their worst loss coming against DePaul gives SJU a strong shot at making the field.  Add a 7-4 record away from home, and the Red Storm would have to collapse to miss out this year.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation, probably an 8 or 9 seed

 

TCU

Like Ole Miss, all of TCU’s losses have come to Quadrant 1 teams.  They are 16-0 against all others.  A 33 NET rating and 20 Strength of Schedule Rating puts the Horned Frogs well up into the good graces of the Selection Committee.

TCU should be no worse than 9-9 in the Big 12, and when a league is as strong up and down as this one, the 9-9 team always gets into the field.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Temple

When a top 10 team has just one loss all year, the team that beat them gets added oomph in their resume.  Temple gave Houston their only loss so far this year.  The Owls lost their other five Q1 games to date.

Temple’s NET Rating is 55, which puts them on the Bubble for sure.  Their Strength of Schedule is 56, which is at the bottom of the allowed SOS for an at-large team.  An 8-5 record away from home (7-4 away from the City of Brotherly Love) makes their criteria smack dab in the hunt as one of the final teams in our highest teams out.

Temple can go 5-2 the rest of the regular season to finish at 12-6 in the league.  With a win in the AAC Tournament, that would give the Owls at least 23 wins, and that would leave them exactly where they are now–in the middle of the discussion between teams number 67 and 70.  A win at South Florida this weekend would really help.

 

Texas

The Longhorns have the worst record of teams that appear to be in good shape with the Selection Committee.  At 6-6/14-11, UT still has work to do just to guarantee a plus .500 record.  They have played the third toughest schedule in the nation, and they own wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor.

Add a 34 NET Rating and 28 Efficiency Rating, and Texas only needs to get enough wins down the stretch to guarantee an at-large bid.  A 9-9 Big 12 record does the trick.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Toledo

The PiRate Ratings are big fans of the Mid-Major conferences that have been around for decades, and the MAC is one of those leagues.  Toledo was really good back in the late 1960’s when Steve Mix played for the Rockets prior to starting in the NBA.  Success has been limited for Toledo on the hardwoods since then.

This Toledo team has no chance of securing an at-large bid, and with a 30-point loss to Buffalo, it is hard to see them getting revenge in the championship game of the MAC Tournament.  Still, we include them in this write-up, because the MAC Tournament is always competitive, and the top-seeded team loses in it more than the average conference.

Toledo is one of three or four teams that could upset Buffalo, although this year’s Buffalo team has all the tools to sweep the regular season and conference tournament.  However, if Buffalo loses, then obviously another team must win the automatic bid, while Buffalo bursts a Bubble for another team as a certain at-large team.

A 9-3 record away from home makes this a dangerous team in Cleveland.  Toledo will waltz into Cleveland as the number one seed from the West Division, so Buffalo will have to beat two others before the Rockets will have to glare at the Bulls in a possible title game.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only bid winning automatic bid, but Buffalo still gets in if they lose the MAC Tournament

 

UNC Greensboro

This is a team no favorite from a power conference will want to see in a potential Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game.  UNCG is a tough matchup, and the Spartans have a unique style that is hard to prepare for on a couple day’s notice.

With a 46 NET Rating, UNCG is worthy of an at-large bid if they were to win out all the way to the Socon Championship Game and lose a close one to Wofford.  The Spartans are 10-2 away from Greensboro, but their issue is a schedule that is rated 188 (which is still ahead of North Carolina State).

If UNCG is to earn enough respect to be in the at-large pool, the Spartans must win their two big games this week.  They play at Furman tonight, and then meet Wofford in Spartanburg Saturday.  If UNCG wins out but loses in the SoCon Championship Game, they will be 30-4 and in the mix for one of the last four bids.

 

Utah St.

With a 38 NET Rating and 43 Efficiency Rating, Utah State should be in the almost safe range for an at-large bid, but the Aggies are still on the outside looking in thanks to a strength of schedule rated 115.  Utah State has seven regular season games left, and if they win out, they will enter the MWC Tournament at 15-3/25-6.  Most importantly, if they win out, it will mean the Aggies beat Nevada.  The boys from Reno come to Logan on March 2.  USU almost has to win that game to have any serious at-large chances, but they also have a chance to win the automatic bid in the tough Mountain West.  Nevada won the MWC last year and failed to make the tournament title game as the number one seed, so history could repeat.

Verdict: We believe the Aggies deserve an at-large bid as of today, and for now we will give the Selection Committee the benefit of the doubt in realizing that they deserve to be in

 

Virginia Commonwealth

At the current time, we actually have VCU as the likely automatic bid winner from the Atlantic 10, ahead of Davidson, but we included the Rams here to show you how close they are to qualifying as an at-large team.

VCU has a 43 NET Rating, 54 Strength of Schedule, and 46 Efficiency Rating.  This is already better than some of the other teams thought to be among the last four in and first four out.  They have a 6-5 record away from home and won at Texas.  They suffered narrow losses to Virginia and St. John’s.

We project VCU to finish 15-3 in the A-10 and 24-7 overall in the regular season.  If they lose in the conference tournament and finish 26-8, the Rams will be in the mix for an at-large bid.

Verdict: We believe VCU has the best chance of winning the A-10 Tournament and the automatic bid, but if they lose in the Championship Game, the Rams still have a chance depending on how many Power Conferences have major upsets or if teams like Buffalo and Nevada lose in their conference tournaments

Wofford

If we told you that an anonymous team was ranked 28 in the NET Ratings with the number 30 Efficiency Rating, and with a 20-point road win at the number four team in the SEC, and with four losses all year to North Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma, you might reply that Auburn or Texas Tech will obviously make the NCAA Tournament, guessing from the information given that one of these two teams must be that anonymous team.

Mention Wofford to 99% of the general college basketball fandom public, and you are very likely to hear such fanatic tell you that they will be another one of those first round 25-point losers to some Big Ten team.

Wofford and UNC Greensboro both probably belong in the NCAA Tourmament.  Unfortunately, one of these two are likely to be team number 69, 70, 71, or 72.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they earn the automatic bid

 

Yale

There has never been an at-large Ivy League team, and there isn’t going to be one this year, even if Yale is probably better than a couple of teams seriously on the Bubble.

The Bulldogs’ best win is a neutral court victory over Miami of Florida.  Their resume won’t get them an at-large bid.  We project the Bulldogs to go 12-2 in the Ivy League to earn the top seed in the four-team tournament.  We also project Yale to win the Tournament to finish 24-5, where they will earn no better than a 13 seed and possible a 14 seed.  At 13, there are multiple potential 4 seeds that could be uspet by this Yale team.

 

January 25, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, January 25, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:47 am

This Weekend’s PiRate Rating Spreads

For Games Between Power Conference and Top 25 Teams

Saturday’s Games

Home Team

Visitor

Spread

Duke

Georgia Tech

21.8

Notre Dame

Virginia

-14.1

North Carolina St.

Clemson

6.7

Louisville

Pittsburgh

10.7

Wake Forest

Boston College

-0.8

Virginia Tech

Syracuse

7.1

East Carolina

South Florida

-5.7

Connecticut

Wichita St.

6.4

SMU

Tulane

16.2

Ole Miss

Iowa St.

-1.3

Baylor

Alabama

3.0

TCU

Florida

4.4

Oklahoma St.

South Carolina

3.3

Georgia

Texas

-5.1

Texas A&M

Kansas St.

-6.2

Tennessee

West Virginia

17.8

Oklahoma

Vanderbilt

11.7

Kentucky

Kansas

2.8

Texas Tech

Arkansas

10.4

Xavier

Marquette

-4.2

Maryland

Illinois

13.7

Nebraska

Ohio St.

6.8

Wisconsin

Northwestern

8.8

Penn St.

Rutgers

5.4

Oregon St.

Washington

0.1

USC

Arizona St.

-0.6

California

Utah

-6.6

Stanford

Colorado

-0.1

UCLA

Arizona

-0.4

Missouri

LSU

-4.9

Mississippi St.

Auburn

1.2

Sunday’s Games

Home Team

Visitor

Spread

Miami (Fla.)

Florida St.

-4.7

Temple

Cincinnati

-2.5

Tulsa

Houston

-9.0

Memphis

Central Florida

-1.6

St. John’s

Georgetown

8.6

Providence

DePaul

5.6

Villanova

Seton Hall

7.8

Purdue

Michigan St.

-3.6

Minnesota

Iowa

-1.8

Oregon

Washington St.

14.7

 

Current PiRate Ratings (1-353)

Rk

Team

PiRate

1

Duke

124.8

2

Virginia

123.9

3

Michigan St.

123.8

4

Gonzaga

122.4

5

Tennessee

120.7

6

North Carolina

119.3

7

Michigan

118.2

8

Kansas

117.3

9

Purdue

117.2

10

Kentucky

117.1

11

Virginia Tech

116.5

12

Iowa St.

116.1

13

Wisconsin

115.7

14

Texas Tech

115.7

15

Louisville

115.5

16

Nebraska

115.4

17

Nevada

115.3

18

Maryland

115.1

19

Auburn

115.1

20

Buffalo

114.6

21

Houston

114.6

22

Oklahoma

114.2

23

TCU

114.2

24

LSU

114.1

25

Villanova

114.0

26

North Carolina St.

113.7

27

Cincinnati

113.4

28

Iowa

113.4

29

Mississippi St.

113.3

30

Marquette

113.3

31

Florida St.

113.3

32

Florida

112.8

33

Texas

112.6

34

Syracuse

112.4

35

Kansas St.

112.1

36

Mississippi

111.8

37

Indiana

111.7

38

Ohio St.

111.6

39

Saint Mary’s

111.6

40

Wofford

111.4

41

Butler

111.1

42

St. John’s

111.0

43

Central Florida

110.8

44

San Francisco

110.8

45

Baylor

110.6

46

Alabama

110.6

47

Utah St.

110.4

48

Washington

110.4

49

Lipscomb

110.0

50

Clemson

110.0

51

Creighton

109.8

52

Arizona St.

109.6

53

Northwestern

109.4

54

Seton Hall

109.2

55

Virginia Commonwealth

109.1

56

Murray St.

109.0

57

Arizona

109.0

58

Oregon

108.9

59

Liberty

108.6

60

Minnesota

108.6

61

Fresno St.

108.5

62

Toledo

108.3

63

Arkansas

108.3

64

New Mexico St.

108.2

65

Hofstra

108.1

66

Temple

107.9

67

Pittsburgh

107.8

68

Penn St.

107.5

69

Oregon St.

107.4

70

East Tennessee St.

107.2

71

Belmont

107.2

72

Providence

107.1

73

Dayton

107.0

74

Notre Dame

106.8

75

Vermont

106.6

76

Georgia Tech

106.5

77

Davidson

106.4

78

UNC Greensboro

106.4

79

Yale

106.3

80

Memphis

106.2

81

Northern Kentucky

106.2

82

Missouri

106.2

83

Texas St.

106.2

84

Xavier

106.1

85

Miami (Fla)

106.1

86

Connecticut

106.1

87

Furman

106.0

88

USC

106.0

89

West Virginia

105.9

90

Oklahoma St.

105.8

91

South Dakota St.

105.7

92

Grand Canyon

105.7

93

Colorado

105.6

94

UCLA

105.6

95

South Carolina

105.5

96

Vanderbilt

105.5

97

Georgetown

105.4

98

San Diego

105.4

99

Saint Louis

105.3

100

BYU

105.3

101

Ball St.

105.2

102

Old Dominion

104.7

103

Rhode Island

104.7

104

Bowling Green

104.6

105

SMU

104.6

106

Rutgers

104.6

107

Georgia

104.5

108

DePaul

104.5

109

Georgia St.

104.5

110

Boston College

104.4

111

Illinois

104.4

112

Penn

104.3

113

Western Kentucky

104.3

114

George Mason

104.3

115

Drake

104.3

116

Northeastern

104.1

117

Brown

103.9

118

South Florida

103.8

119

Charleston

103.8

120

Austin Peay

103.7

121

UC Irvine

103.6

122

Utah Valley

103.4

123

Georgia Southern

103.4

124

Montana

103.4

125

Loyola (Chi.)

103.4

126

Jacksonville St.

103.2

127

North Texas

103.2

128

Radford

103.1

129

Tulsa

103.1

130

Utah

103.0

131

Texas A&M

102.9

132

Northern Illinois

102.7

133

Akron

102.7

134

Wichita St.

102.7

135

Louisiana Monroe

102.5

136

Stanford

102.5

137

Marshall

102.4

138

Louisiana Tech

102.1

139

Harvard

102.1

140

Bucknell

102.0

141

Loyola Marymount

101.8

142

Boise St.

101.7

143

UNLV

101.7

144

Stony Brook

101.6

145

Kent St.

101.6

146

San Diego St.

101.6

147

Lehigh

101.6

148

UC Santa Barbara

101.3

149

Central Michigan

101.3

150

Duquesne

101.3

151

NJIT

101.3

152

Winthrop

101.2

153

Colgate

101.1

154

Wake Forest

101.1

155

Rider

101.0

156

Wright St.

101.0

157

Princeton

100.9

158

Samford

100.7

159

Southern Illinois

100.7

160

St. Bonaventure

100.3

161

Miami (O)

100.3

162

Gardner Webb

100.2

163

Weber St.

100.1

164

Seattle

100.0

165

UAB

99.9

166

Abilene Christian

99.8

167

Louisiana

99.7

168

Coastal Carolina

99.6

169

Mercer

99.4

170

Missouri St.

99.4

171

Omaha

99.1

172

Saint Joseph’s

99.0

173

Ohio

99.0

174

Cal St. Fullerton

99.0

175

Southern Miss

98.9

176

Northern Colorado

98.9

177

New Mexico

98.7

178

Dartmouth

98.7

179

Cal St. Bakersfield

98.7

180

Pepperdine

98.6

181

Indiana St.

98.4

182

Massachusetts

98.4

183

Eastern Michigan

98.3

184

Valparaiso

98.3

185

Holy Cross

98.2

186

Evansville

98.1

187

IUPUI

98.1

188

Presbyterian

98.0

189

American

97.9

190

Troy

97.9

191

Pacific

97.9

192

North Florida

97.9

193

Hartford

97.8

194

Hawaii

97.8

195

Florida Int’l.

97.8

196

Sam Houston St.

97.7

197

Richmond

97.7

198

Santa Clara

97.5

199

Illinois St.

97.4

200

Purdue Fort Wayne

97.4

201

UTSA

97.2

202

Washington St.

97.2

203

Texas Southern

97.2

204

Campbell

97.1

205

Green Bay

97.0

206

Eastern Kentucky

97.0

207

Detroit

96.8

208

South Dakota

96.8

209

Fordham

96.8

210

Maryland Baltimore Co.

96.8

211

Bradley

96.7

212

Oakland

96.7

213

UMass Lowell

96.7

214

Long Beach St.

96.5

215

Army

96.5

216

Illinois Chicago

96.5

217

UT Arlington

96.5

218

High Point

96.4

219

Colorado St.

96.4

220

Air Force

96.4

221

Western Michigan

96.4

222

Florida Atlantic

96.4

223

North Dakota St.

96.2

224

UT Rio Grande Valley

96.2

225

Iona

96.1

226

Northern Iowa

96.1

227

Robert Morris

96.1

228

Delaware

96.0

229

The Citadel

96.0

230

Little Rock

95.9

231

Fairleigh Dickinson

95.8

232

Sacred Heart

95.8

233

East Carolina

95.6

234

Columbia

95.5

235

St. Francis (BKN)

95.5

236

Appalachian St.

95.3

237

California Baptist

95.2

238

UNC Wilmington

95.2

239

Boston University

95.2

240

Canisius

95.2

241

Hampton

95.1

242

William & Mary

95.1

243

Charleston Southern

95.1

244

La Salle

95.0

245

Drexel

94.9

246

Cornell

94.8

247

South Alabama

94.7

248

Jacksonville

94.5

249

Chattanooga

94.5

250

Wagner

94.5

251

Arkansas St.

94.5

252

Marist

94.3

253

Central Arkansas

94.3

254

Longwood

94.2

255

Morehead St.

94.2

256

Siena

94.2

257

Quinnipiac

94.2

258

Lamar

94.1

259

Missouri Kansas City

94.1

260

Long Island

94.1

261

Florida Gulf Coast

94.1

262

Norfolk St.

94.0

263

St. Francis PA

93.8

264

George Washington

93.8

265

North Carolina A&T

93.7

266

Prairie View A&M

93.6

267

Eastern Illinois

93.6

268

UC Davis

93.6

269

Milwaukee

93.6

270

Stephen F. Austin

93.6

271

Sacramento St.

93.4

272

James Madison

93.4

273

California

93.4

274

UTEP

93.3

275

New Orleans

93.3

276

UC Riverside

93.3

277

Rice

93.1

278

Loyola (MD)

93.1

279

Montana St.

93.1

280

North Dakota

93.1

281

Houston Baptist

93.0

282

Western Illinois

93.0

283

North Carolina Central

92.9

284

Texas A&M CC

92.9

285

Southern Utah

92.9

286

Towson

92.9

287

Fairfield

92.8

288

Cal St. Northridge

92.5

289

Grambling

92.4

290

Charlotte

92.3

291

Youngstown St.

92.3

292

Central Connecticut

92.2

293

Idaho St.

92.2

294

Monmouth

92.2

295

Lafayette

92.1

296

Western Carolina

91.9

297

Nicholls St.

91.8

298

Portland St.

91.8

299

Tennessee St.

91.7

300

Albany

91.7

301

Saint Peter’s

91.6

302

Denver

91.5

303

Navy

91.5

304

Cleveland St.

91.4

305

Tulane

91.4

306

Niagara

91.4

307

Oral Roberts

91.3

308

Bethune Cookman

91.3

309

Alabama St.

91.2

310

Eastern Washington

91.1

311

Southeastern Louisiana

91.1

312

Northern Arizona

91.1

313

Middle Tennessee

91.0

314

Southeast Missouri St.

91.0

315

VMI

90.5

316

McNeese St.

90.4

317

Howard

90.1

318

North Alabama

89.7

319

UT Martin

89.7

320

Mount St. Mary’s

89.7

321

Maine

89.5

322

Portland

89.5

323

Arkansas Pine Bluff

89.3

324

USC Upstate

89.3

325

Wyoming

89.2

326

Jackson St.

88.9

327

Bryant

88.8

328

Elon

88.8

329

Tennessee Tech

88.4

330

Binghamton

88.3

331

SIU Edwardsville

88.3

332

Florida A&M

88.1

333

Morgan St.

88.0

334

South Carolina St.

87.9

335

Southern

87.6

336

Cal Poly

87.3

337

Manhattan

87.3

338

Idaho

86.7

339

Northwestern St.

86.2

340

San Jose St.

86.0

341

Incarnate Word

85.6

342

Stetson

85.2

343

New Hampshire

84.7

344

Alcorn St.

84.7

345

Coppin St.

84.2

346

Kennesaw St.

84.2

347

Savannah St.

83.4

348

Alabama A&M

82.9

349

Mississippi Valley St.

81.7

350

Chicago St.

81.0

351

UNC Asheville

80.9

352

Maryland Eastern Shore

80.6

353

Delaware St.

79.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

#

America East

PiRate

75

Vermont

106.6

144

Stony Brook

101.6

193

Hartford

97.8

210

Maryland Baltimore Co.

96.8

213

UMass Lowell

96.7

300

Albany

91.7

321

Maine

89.5

330

Binghamton

88.3

343

New Hampshire

84.7

#

American Athletic

PiRate

21

Houston

114.6

27

Cincinnati

113.4

43

Central Florida

110.8

66

Temple

107.9

80

Memphis

106.2

86

Connecticut

106.1

105

SMU

104.6

118

South Florida

103.8

129

Tulsa

103.1

134

Wichita St.

102.7

233

East Carolina

95.6

305

Tulane

91.4

#

Atlantic 10

PiRate

55

Virginia Commonwealth

109.1

73

Dayton

107.0

77

Davidson

106.4

99

Saint Louis

105.3

103

Rhode Island

104.7

114

George Mason

104.3

150

Duquesne

101.3

160

St. Bonaventure

100.3

172

Saint Joseph’s

99.0

182

Massachusetts

98.4

197

Richmond

97.7

209

Fordham

96.8

244

La Salle

95.0

264

George Washington

93.8

#

Atlantic Coast

PiRate

1

Duke

124.8

2

Virginia

123.9

6

North Carolina

119.3

11

Virginia Tech

116.5

15

Louisville

115.5

26

North Carolina St.

113.7

31

Florida St.

113.3

34

Syracuse

112.4

50

Clemson

110.0

67

Pittsburgh

107.8

74

Notre Dame

106.8

76

Georgia Tech

106.5

85

Miami (Fla)

106.1

110

Boston College

104.4

154

Wake Forest

101.1

#

Atlantic Sun

PiRate

49

Lipscomb

110.0

59

Liberty

108.6

151

NJIT

101.3

192

North Florida

97.9

248

Jacksonville

94.5

261

Florida Gulf Coast

94.1

318

North Alabama

89.7

342

Stetson

85.2

346

Kennesaw St.

84.2

#

Big 12

PiRate

8

Kansas

117.3

12

Iowa St.

116.1

14

Texas Tech

115.7

22

Oklahoma

114.2

23

TCU

114.2

33

Texas

112.6

35

Kansas St.

112.1

45

Baylor

110.6

89

West Virginia

105.9

90

Oklahoma St.

105.8

#

Big East

PiRate

25

Villanova

114.0

30

Marquette

113.3

41

Butler

111.1

42

St. John’s

111.0

51

Creighton

109.8

54

Seton Hall

109.2

72

Providence

107.1

84

Xavier

106.1

97

Georgetown

105.4

108

DePaul

104.5

#

Big Sky

PiRate

124

Montana

103.4

163

Weber St.

100.1

176

Northern Colorado

98.9

271

Sacramento St.

93.4

279

Montana St.

93.1

285

Southern Utah

92.9

293

Idaho St.

92.2

298

Portland St.

91.8

310

Eastern Washington

91.1

312

Northern Arizona

91.1

338

Idaho

86.7

#

Big South

PiRate

128

Radford

103.1

152

Winthrop

101.2

162

Gardner Webb

100.2

188

Presbyterian

98.0

204

Campbell

97.1

218

High Point

96.4

241

Hampton

95.1

243

Charleston Southern

95.1

254

Longwood

94.2

324

USC Upstate

89.3

351

UNC Asheville

80.9

#

Big Ten

PiRate

3

Michigan St.

123.8

7

Michigan

118.2

9

Purdue

117.2

13

Wisconsin

115.7

16

Nebraska

115.4

18

Maryland

115.1

28

Iowa

113.4

37

Indiana

111.7

38

Ohio St.

111.6

53

Northwestern

109.4

60

Minnesota

108.6

68

Penn St.

107.5

106

Rutgers

104.6

111

Illinois

104.4

#

Big West

PiRate

121

UC Irvine

103.6

148

UC Santa Barbara

101.3

174

Cal St. Fullerton

99.0

194

Hawaii

97.8

214

Long Beach St.

96.5

268

UC Davis

93.6

276

UC Riverside

93.3

288

Cal St. Northridge

92.5

336

Cal Poly

87.3

#

Colonial Athletic

PiRate

65

Hofstra

108.1

116

Northeastern

104.1

119

Charleston

103.8

228

Delaware

96.0

238

UNC Wilmington

95.2

242

William & Mary

95.1

245

Drexel

94.9

272

James Madison

93.4

286

Towson

92.9

328

Elon

88.8

#

Conference USA

PiRate

102

Old Dominion

104.7

113

Western Kentucky

104.3

127

North Texas

103.2

137

Marshall

102.4

138

Louisiana Tech

102.1

165

UAB

99.9

175

Southern Miss

98.9

195

Florida Int’l.

97.8

201

UTSA

97.2

222

Florida Atlantic

96.4

274

UTEP

93.3

277

Rice

93.1

290

Charlotte

92.3

313

Middle Tennessee

91.0

#

Horizon

PiRate

81

Northern Kentucky

106.2

156

Wright St.

101.0

187

IUPUI

98.1

205

Green Bay

97.0

207

Detroit

96.8

212

Oakland

96.7

216

Illinois Chicago

96.5

269

Milwaukee

93.6

291

Youngstown St.

92.3

304

Cleveland St.

91.4

#

Ivy

PiRate

79

Yale

106.3

112

Penn

104.3

117

Brown

103.9

139

Harvard

102.1

157

Princeton

100.9

178

Dartmouth

98.7

234

Columbia

95.5

246

Cornell

94.8

#

Metro Atlantic

PiRate

155

Rider

101.0

225

Iona

96.1

240

Canisius

95.2

252

Marist

94.3

256

Siena

94.2

257

Quinnipiac

94.2

287

Fairfield

92.8

294

Monmouth

92.2

301

Saint Peter’s

91.6

306

Niagara

91.4

337

Manhattan

87.3

#

Mid-American

PiRate

20

Buffalo

114.6

62

Toledo

108.3

101

Ball St.

105.2

104

Bowling Green

104.6

132

Northern Illinois

102.7

133

Akron

102.7

145

Kent St.

101.6

149

Central Michigan

101.3

161

Miami (O)

100.3

173

Ohio

99.0

183

Eastern Michigan

98.3

221

Western Michigan

96.4

#

Mideastern Athletic

PiRate

262

Norfolk St.

94.0

265

North Carolina A&T

93.7

283

North Carolina Central

92.9

308

Bethune Cookman

91.3

317

Howard

90.1

332

Florida A&M

88.1

333

Morgan St.

88.0

334

South Carolina St.

87.9

345

Coppin St.

84.2

347

Savannah St.

83.4

352

Maryland Eastern Shore

80.6

353

Delaware St.

79.6

#

Missouri Valley

PiRate

115

Drake

104.3

125

Loyola (Chi.)

103.4

159

Southern Illinois

100.7

170

Missouri St.

99.4

181

Indiana St.

98.4

184

Valparaiso

98.3

186

Evansville

98.1

199

Illinois St.

97.4

211

Bradley

96.7

226

Northern Iowa

96.1

#

Mountain West

PiRate

17

Nevada

115.3

47

Utah St.

110.4

61

Fresno St.

108.5

142

Boise St.

101.7

143

UNLV

101.7

146

San Diego St.

101.6

177

New Mexico

98.7

219

Colorado St.

96.4

220

Air Force

96.4

325

Wyoming

89.2

340

San Jose St.

86.0

#

Northeast

PiRate

227

Robert Morris

96.1

231

Fairleigh Dickinson

95.8

232

Sacred Heart

95.8

235

St. Francis (BKN)

95.5

250

Wagner

94.5

260

Long Island

94.1

263

St. Francis PA

93.8

292

Central Connecticut

92.2

320

Mount St. Mary’s

89.7

327

Bryant

88.8

#

Ohio Valley

PiRate

56

Murray St.

109.0

71

Belmont

107.2

120

Austin Peay

103.7

126

Jacksonville St.

103.2

206

Eastern Kentucky

97.0

255

Morehead St.

94.2

267

Eastern Illinois

93.6

299

Tennessee St.

91.7

314

Southeast Missouri St.

91.0

319

UT Martin

89.7

329

Tennessee Tech

88.4

331

SIU Edwardsville

88.3

#

Pac-12

PiRate

48

Washington

110.4

52

Arizona St.

109.6

57

Arizona

109.0

58

Oregon

108.9

69

Oregon St.

107.4

88

USC

106.0

93

Colorado

105.6

94

UCLA

105.6

130

Utah

103.0

136

Stanford

102.5

202

Washington St.

97.2

273

California

93.4

#

Patriot

PiRate

140

Bucknell

102.0

147

Lehigh

101.6

153

Colgate

101.1

185

Holy Cross

98.2

189

American

97.9

215

Army

96.5

239

Boston University

95.2

278

Loyola (MD)

93.1

295

Lafayette

92.1

303

Navy

91.5

#

Southeastern

PiRate

5

Tennessee

120.7

10

Kentucky

117.1

19

Auburn

115.1

24

LSU

114.1

29

Mississippi St.

113.3

32

Florida

112.8

36

Mississippi

111.8

46

Alabama

110.6

63

Arkansas

108.3

82

Missouri

106.2

95

South Carolina

105.5

96

Vanderbilt

105.5

107

Georgia

104.5

131

Texas A&M

102.9

#

Southern

PiRate

40

Wofford

111.4

70

East Tennessee St.

107.2

78

UNC Greensboro

106.4

87

Furman

106.0

158

Samford

100.7

169

Mercer

99.4

229

The Citadel

96.0

249

Chattanooga

94.5

296

Western Carolina

91.9

315

VMI

90.5

#

Southland

PiRate

166

Abilene Christian

99.8

196

Sam Houston St.

97.7

253

Central Arkansas

94.3

258

Lamar

94.1

270

Stephen F. Austin

93.6

275

New Orleans

93.3

281

Houston Baptist

93.0

284

Texas A&M CC

92.9

297

Nicholls St.

91.8

311

Southeastern Louisiana

91.1

316

McNeese St.

90.4

339

Northwestern St.

86.2

341

Incarnate Word

85.6

#

Southwestern Athletic

PiRate

203

Texas Southern

97.2

266

Prairie View A&M

93.6

289

Grambling

92.4

309

Alabama St.

91.2

323

Arkansas Pine Bluff

89.3

326

Jackson St.

88.9

335

Southern

87.6

344

Alcorn St.

84.7

348

Alabama A&M

82.9

349

Mississippi Valley St.

81.7

#

Summit

PiRate

91

South Dakota St.

105.7

171

Omaha

99.1

200

Purdue Fort Wayne

97.4

208

South Dakota

96.8

223

North Dakota St.

96.2

280

North Dakota

93.1

282

Western Illinois

93.0

302

Denver

91.5

307

Oral Roberts

91.3

#

Sun Belt

PiRate

83

Texas St.

106.2

109

Georgia St.

104.5

123

Georgia Southern

103.4

135

Louisiana Monroe

102.5

167

Louisiana

99.7

168

Coastal Carolina

99.6

190

Troy

97.9

217

UT Arlington

96.5

230

Little Rock

95.9

236

Appalachian St.

95.3

247

South Alabama

94.7

251

Arkansas St.

94.5

#

West Coast

PiRate

4

Gonzaga

122.4

39

Saint Mary’s

111.6

44

San Francisco

110.8

98

San Diego

105.4

100

BYU

105.3

141

Loyola Marymount

101.8

180

Pepperdine

98.6

191

Pacific

97.9

198

Santa Clara

97.5

322

Portland

89.5

#

Western Athletic

PiRate

64

New Mexico St.

108.2

92

Grand Canyon

105.7

122

Utah Valley

103.4

164

Seattle

100.0

179

Cal St. Bakersfield

98.7

224

UT Rio Grande Valley

96.2

237

California Baptist

95.2

259

Missouri Kansas City

94.1

350

Chicago St.

81.0

 

Conferences Rated

#

League

PiRate Avg.

1

Big Ten

112.6

2

Big 12

112.4

3

Atlantic Coast

112.1

4

Southeastern

110.6

5

Big East

109.1

6

American Athletic

105.0

7

Pac-12

104.9

8

West Coast

104.1

9

Mid-American

102.9

10

Atlantic 10

101.4

11

Ivy

100.8

12

Mountain West

100.5

13

Southern

100.4

14

Missouri Valley

99.3

15

Sun Belt

99.2

16

Conference USA

98.3

17

Western Athletic

98.0

18

Colonial Athletic

97.2

19

Horizon

97.0

20

Patriot

96.9

21

Ohio Valley

96.4

22

Atlantic Sun

96.2

23

Big West

96.1

24

Summit

96.0

25

Big South

95.5

26

America East

94.8

27

Big Sky

94.1

28

Metro Atlantic

93.7

29

Northeast

93.6

30

Southland

92.6

31

Southwestern Athletic

88.9

32

Mideastern Athletic

87.8

 

Alphabetical Ratings

Team

PiRate

Abilene Christian

99.8

Air Force

96.4

Akron

102.7

Alabama

110.6

Alabama A&M

82.9

Alabama St.

91.2

Albany

91.7

Alcorn St.

84.7

American

97.9

Appalachian St.

95.3

Arizona

109.0

Arizona St.

109.6

Arkansas

108.3

Arkansas Pine Bluff

89.3

Arkansas St.

94.5

Army

96.5

Auburn

115.1

Austin Peay

103.7

Ball St.

105.2

Baylor

110.6

Belmont

107.2

Bethune Cookman

91.3

Binghamton

88.3

Boise St.

101.7

Boston College

104.4

Boston University

95.2

Bowling Green

104.6

Bradley

96.7

Brown

103.9

Bryant

88.8

Bucknell

102.0

Buffalo

114.6

Butler

111.1

BYU

105.3

Cal Poly

87.3

Cal St. Bakersfield

98.7

Cal St. Fullerton

99.0

Cal St. Northridge

92.5

California

93.4

California Baptist

95.2

Campbell

97.1

Canisius

95.2

Central Arkansas

94.3

Central Connecticut

92.2

Central Florida

110.8

Central Michigan

101.3

Charleston

103.8

Charleston Southern

95.1

Charlotte

92.3

Chattanooga

94.5

Chicago St.

81.0

Cincinnati

113.4

Clemson

110.0

Cleveland St.

91.4

Coastal Carolina

99.6

Colgate

101.1

Colorado

105.6

Colorado St.

96.4

Columbia

95.5

Connecticut

106.1

Coppin St.

84.2

Cornell

94.8

Creighton

109.8

Dartmouth

98.7

Davidson

106.4

Dayton

107.0

Delaware

96.0

Delaware St.

79.6

Denver

91.5

DePaul

104.5

Detroit

96.8

Drake

104.3

Drexel

94.9

Duke

124.8

Duquesne

101.3

East Carolina

95.6

East Tennessee St.

107.2

Eastern Illinois

93.6

Eastern Kentucky

97.0

Eastern Michigan

98.3

Eastern Washington

91.1

Elon

88.8

Evansville

98.1

Fairfield

92.8

Fairleigh Dickinson

95.8

Florida

112.8

Florida A&M

88.1

Florida Atlantic

96.4

Florida Gulf Coast

94.1

Florida Int’l.

97.8

Florida St.

113.3

Fordham

96.8

Fresno St.

108.5

Furman

106.0

Gardner Webb

100.2

George Mason

104.3

George Washington

93.8

Georgetown

105.4

Georgia

104.5

Georgia Southern

103.4

Georgia St.

104.5

Georgia Tech

106.5

Gonzaga

122.4

Grambling

92.4

Grand Canyon

105.7

Green Bay

97.0

Hampton

95.1

Hartford

97.8

Harvard

102.1

Hawaii

97.8

High Point

96.4

Hofstra

108.1

Holy Cross

98.2

Houston

114.6

Houston Baptist

93.0

Howard

90.1

Idaho

86.7

Idaho St.

92.2

Illinois

104.4

Illinois Chicago

96.5

Illinois St.

97.4

Incarnate Word

85.6

Indiana

111.7

Indiana St.

98.4

Iona

96.1

Iowa

113.4

Iowa St.

116.1

IUPUI

98.1

Jackson St.

88.9

Jacksonville

94.5

Jacksonville St.

103.2

James Madison

93.4

Kansas

117.3

Kansas St.

112.1

Kennesaw St.

84.2

Kent St.

101.6

Kentucky

117.1

La Salle

95.0

Lafayette

92.1

Lamar

94.1

Lehigh

101.6

Liberty

108.6

Lipscomb

110.0

Little Rock

95.9

Long Beach St.

96.5

Long Island

94.1

Longwood

94.2

Louisiana

99.7

Louisiana Monroe

102.5

Louisiana Tech

102.1

Louisville

115.5

Loyola (Chi.)

103.4

Loyola (MD)

93.1

Loyola Marymount

101.8

LSU

114.1

Maine

89.5

Manhattan

87.3

Marist

94.3

Marquette

113.3

Marshall

102.4

Maryland

115.1

Maryland Baltimore Co.

96.8

Maryland Eastern Shore

80.6

Massachusetts

98.4

McNeese St.

90.4

Memphis

106.2

Mercer

99.4

Miami (Fla)

106.1

Miami (O)

100.3

Michigan

118.2

Michigan St.

123.8

Middle Tennessee

91.0

Milwaukee

93.6

Minnesota

108.6

Mississippi

111.8

Mississippi St.

113.3

Mississippi Valley St.

81.7

Missouri

106.2

Missouri Kansas City

94.1

Missouri St.

99.4

Monmouth

92.2

Montana

103.4

Montana St.

93.1

Morehead St.

94.2

Morgan St.

88.0

Mount St. Mary’s

89.7

Murray St.

109.0

Navy

91.5

Nebraska

115.4

Nevada

115.3

New Hampshire

84.7

New Mexico

98.7

New Mexico St.

108.2

New Orleans

93.3

Niagara

91.4

Nicholls St.

91.8

NJIT

101.3

Norfolk St.

94.0

North Alabama

89.7

North Carolina

119.3

North Carolina A&T

93.7

North Carolina Central

92.9

North Carolina St.

113.7

North Dakota

93.1

North Dakota St.

96.2

North Florida

97.9

North Texas

103.2

Northeastern

104.1

Northern Arizona

91.1

Northern Colorado

98.9

Northern Illinois

102.7

Northern Iowa

96.1

Northern Kentucky

106.2

Northwestern

109.4

Northwestern St.

86.2

Notre Dame

106.8

Oakland

96.7

Ohio

99.0

Ohio St.

111.6

Oklahoma

114.2

Oklahoma St.

105.8

Old Dominion

104.7

Omaha

99.1

Oral Roberts

91.3

Oregon

108.9

Oregon St.

107.4

Pacific

97.9

Penn

104.3

Penn St.

107.5

Pepperdine

98.6

Pittsburgh

107.8

Portland

89.5

Portland St.

91.8

Prairie View A&M

93.6

Presbyterian

98.0

Princeton

100.9

Providence

107.1

Purdue

117.2

Purdue Fort Wayne

97.4

Quinnipiac

94.2

Radford

103.1

Rhode Island

104.7

Rice

93.1

Richmond

97.7

Rider

101.0

Robert Morris

96.1

Rutgers

104.6

Sacramento St.

93.4

Sacred Heart

95.8

Saint Joseph’s

99.0

Saint Louis

105.3

Saint Mary’s

111.6

Saint Peter’s

91.6

Sam Houston St.

97.7

Samford

100.7

San Diego

105.4

San Diego St.

101.6

San Francisco

110.8

San Jose St.

86.0

Santa Clara

97.5

Savannah St.

83.4

Seattle

100.0

Seton Hall

109.2

Siena

94.2

SIU Edwardsville

88.3

SMU

104.6

South Alabama

94.7

South Carolina

105.5

South Carolina St.

87.9

South Dakota

96.8

South Dakota St.

105.7

South Florida

103.8

Southeast Missouri St.

91.0

Southeastern Louisiana

91.1

Southern

87.6

Southern Illinois

100.7

Southern Miss

98.9

Southern Utah

92.9

St. Bonaventure

100.3

St. Francis (BKN)

95.5

St. Francis PA

93.8

St. John’s

111.0

Stanford

102.5

Stephen F. Austin

93.6

Stetson

85.2

Stony Brook

101.6

Syracuse

112.4

TCU

114.2

Temple

107.9

Tennessee

120.7

Tennessee St.

91.7

Tennessee Tech

88.4

Texas

112.6

Texas A&M

102.9

Texas A&M CC

92.9

Texas Southern

97.2

Texas St.

106.2

Texas Tech

115.7

The Citadel

96.0

Toledo

108.3

Towson

92.9

Troy

97.9

Tulane

91.4

Tulsa

103.1

UAB

99.9

UC Davis

93.6

UC Irvine

103.6

UC Riverside

93.3

UC Santa Barbara

101.3

UCLA

105.6

UMass Lowell

96.7

UNC Asheville

80.9

UNC Greensboro

106.4

UNC Wilmington

95.2

UNLV

101.7

USC

106.0

USC Upstate

89.3

UT Arlington

96.5

UT Martin

89.7

UT Rio Grande Valley

96.2

Utah

103.0

Utah St.

110.4

Utah Valley

103.4

UTEP

93.3

UTSA

97.2

Valparaiso

98.3

Vanderbilt

105.5

Vermont

106.6

Villanova

114.0

Virginia

123.9

Virginia Commonwealth

109.1

Virginia Tech

116.5

VMI

90.5

Wagner

94.5

Wake Forest

101.1

Washington

110.4

Washington St.

97.2

Weber St.

100.1

West Virginia

105.9

Western Carolina

91.9

Western Illinois

93.0

Western Kentucky

104.3

Western Michigan

96.4

Wichita St.

102.7

William & Mary

95.1

Winthrop

101.2

Wisconsin

115.7

Wofford

111.4

Wright St.

101.0

Wyoming

89.2

Xavier

106.1

Yale

106.3

Youngstown St.

92.3

 

Coming Later Today–An updated Bracketology Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Monday, January 14, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:13 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk Team PiRate Conf
1 Duke 123.8 ACC
2 Gonzaga 120.8 WCC
3 Virginia 120.7 ACC
4 Michigan St. 119.9 B10
5 Tennessee 118.9 SEC
6 North Carolina 117.7 ACC
7 Michigan 116.6 B10
8 Virginia Tech 116.5 ACC
9 Kansas 116.1 B12
10 Texas Tech 115.9 B12
11 Auburn 115.2 SEC
12 Nevada 114.8 MWC
13 Nebraska 114.2 B10
14 Kentucky 114.1 SEC
15 Iowa St. 113.9 B12
16 North Carolina St. 113.8 ACC
17 Wisconsin 113.7 B10
18 Purdue 113.7 B10
19 Buffalo 113.5 MAC
20 Florida St. 113.1 ACC
21 Oklahoma 112.8 B12
22 Villanova 112.7 BE
23 Indiana 112.4 B10
24 Maryland 112.2 B10
25 Louisville 112.1 ACC
26 Ohio St. 112.0 B10
27 Florida 112.0 SEC
28 TCU 111.9 B12
29 Mississippi St. 111.8 SEC
30 Cincinnati 111.7 Amer
31 Marquette 111.6 BE
32 Iowa 111.3 B10
33 Houston 111.1 Amer
34 Mississippi 110.8 SEC
35 Texas 110.6 B12
36 Saint Mary’s 110.4 WCC
37 Wofford 110.3 SC
38 Syracuse 110.3 ACC
39 Creighton 110.2 BE
40 LSU 110.1 SEC
41 Butler 109.9 BE
42 Central Florida 109.9 Amer
43 St. John’s 109.7 BE
44 Clemson 109.4 ACC
45 Oregon 109.2 P12
46 Arizona 109.0 P12
47 Seton Hall 109.0 BE
48 San Francisco 108.9 WCC
49 Washington 108.9 P12
50 Kansas St. 108.8 B12
51 Utah St. 108.8 MWC
52 Baylor 108.6 B12
53 Murray St. 108.3 OVC
54 Arizona St. 108.2 P12
55 Lipscomb 108.1 ASun
56 Northwestern 108.0 B10
57 Minnesota 107.9 B10
58 Miami (Fla.) 107.8 ACC
59 Fresno St. 107.7 MWC
60 West Virginia 107.7 B12
61 Virginia Commonwealth 107.5 A10
62 Arkansas 107.4 SEC
63 Alabama 107.4 SEC
64 Penn St. 107.2 B10
65 Georgia Tech 107.0 ACC
66 East Tennessee St. 107.0 SC
67 Temple 106.9 Amer
68 Dayton 106.9 A10
69 Liberty 106.7 ASun
70 Oregon St. 106.7 P12
71 Toledo 106.6 MAC
72 UCLA 106.4 P12
73 Vermont 106.4 AE
74 South Dakota St. 106.3 Sum
75 Notre Dame 106.2 ACC
76 Providence 106.2 BE
77 SMU 106.1 Amer
78 Xavier 106.0 BE
79 Connecticut 105.9 Amer
80 Hofstra 105.8 CAA
81 Vanderbilt 105.8 SEC
82 Pittsburgh 105.8 ACC
83 Oklahoma St. 105.8 B12
84 New Mexico St. 105.7 WAC
85 Davidson 105.7 A10
86 Colorado 105.7 P12
87 Ball St. 105.5 MAC
88 Georgetown 105.5 BE
89 Texas A&M 105.5 SEC
90 Belmont 105.4 OVC
91 Georgia 105.3 SEC
92 Western Kentucky 105.3 CUSA
93 BYU 105.2 WCC
94 Yale 105.1 Ivy
95 South Carolina 105.1 SEC
96 Missouri 105.0 SEC
97 USC 105.0 P12
98 Loyola (Chi.) 104.9 MVC
99 Furman 104.9 SC
100 Memphis 104.7 Amer
101 Georgia St. 104.7 SB
102 Saint Louis 104.6 A10
103 Old Dominion 104.5 CUSA
104 DePaul 104.5 BE
105 Northeastern 104.5 CAA
106 UC Irvine 104.4 BW
107 Illinois 104.4 B10
108 Rutgers 104.3 B10
109 Northern Kentucky 104.3 Horz
110 Montana 104.2 BSky
111 Grand Canyon 104.2 WAC
112 San Diego 104.1 WCC
113 UNC Greensboro 104.0 SC
114 Rhode Island 103.9 A10
115 Boise St. 103.8 MWC
116 Texas St. 103.7 SB
117 Boston College 103.7 ACC
118 North Texas 103.6 CUSA
119 Austin Peay 103.5 OVC
120 Charleston 103.5 CAA
121 Akron 103.4 MAC
122 Georgia Southern 103.3 SB
123 Penn 103.1 Ivy
124 Harvard 103.0 Ivy
125 Wichita St. 103.0 Amer
126 Jacksonville St. 102.9 OVC
127 Northern Illinois 102.8 MAC
128 George Mason 102.8 A10
129 Stanford 102.7 P12
130 San Diego St. 102.5 MWC
131 Utah Valley 102.4 WAC
132 Louisiana Tech 102.4 CUSA
133 Brown 102.3 Ivy
134 Utah 102.2 P12
135 Marshall 102.2 CUSA
136 Tulsa 102.1 Amer
137 UC Santa Barbara 102.1 BW
138 Southern Illinois 101.9 MVC
139 Drake 101.8 MVC
140 Winthrop 101.7 BSth
141 Rider 101.6 MAAC
142 Loyola Marymount 101.6 WCC
143 Bowling Green 101.6 MAC
144 Radford 101.5 BSth
145 UNLV 101.5 MWC
146 Louisiana Monroe 101.4 SB
147 South Florida 101.4 Amer
148 Stony Brook 101.1 AE
149 Bucknell 101.1 Pat
150 Wake Forest 100.9 ACC
151 Valparaiso 100.9 MVC
152 Louisiana 100.8 SB
153 St. Bonaventure 100.8 A10
154 Lehigh 100.8 Pat
155 Gardner Webb 100.8 BSth
156 Massachusetts 100.7 A10
157 Wright St. 100.7 Horz
158 Seattle 100.3 WAC
159 Southern Miss 100.3 CUSA
160 Purdue Fort Wayne 100.2 Sum
161 Princeton 100.1 Ivy
162 Richmond 100.0 A10
163 Colgate 99.9 Pat
164 Samford 99.9 SC
165 New Mexico 99.9 MWC
166 Central Michigan 99.9 MAC
167 Ohio 99.8 MAC
168 Holy Cross 99.8 Pat
169 NJIT 99.8 ASun
170 Saint Joseph’s 99.7 A10
171 Weber St. 99.6 BSky
172 Eastern Michigan 99.4 MAC
173 Abilene Christian 99.3 Slnd
174 Duquesne 99.3 A10
175 Mercer 99.3 SC
176 UAB 99.3 CUSA
177 Illinois St. 99.2 MVC
178 Kent St. 99.2 MAC
179 Northern Colorado 99.2 BSky
180 Coastal Carolina 99.1 SB
181 Missouri St. 99.1 MVC
182 Pacific 99.0 WCC
183 Evansville 98.9 MVC
184 Pepperdine 98.9 WCC
185 Miami (O) 98.9 MAC
186 Indiana St. 98.8 MVC
187 Cal St. Bakersfield 98.8 WAC
188 Cal St. Fullerton 98.7 BW
189 Dartmouth 98.5 Ivy
190 American 98.4 Pat
191 Omaha 98.3 Sum
192 Texas Southern 98.3 SWAC
193 North Florida 98.2 ASun
194 Green Bay 98.1 Horz
195 IUPUI 98.1 Horz
196 Troy 98.1 SB
197 Hawaii 98.0 BW
198 North Dakota St. 97.9 Sum
199 UTSA 97.8 CUSA
200 Hartford 97.7 AE
201 South Dakota 97.6 Sum
202 Bradley 97.6 MVC
203 Iona 97.6 MAAC
204 Northern Iowa 97.6 MVC
205 Long Beach St. 97.5 BW
206 Colorado St. 97.4 MWC
207 Boston University 97.4 Pat
208 Washington St. 97.3 P12
209 William & Mary 97.3 CAA
210 Illinois Chicago 97.3 Horz
211 Western Michigan 97.3 MAC
212 Santa Clara 97.2 WCC
213 Appalachian St. 97.2 SB
214 Little Rock 97.1 SB
215 Fordham 97.0 A10
216 Hampton 97.0 BSth
217 Florida Atlantic 96.8 CUSA
218 Campbell 96.7 BSth
219 High Point 96.6 BSth
220 Delaware 96.6 CAA
221 Detroit 96.6 Horz
222 Florida Int’l. 96.6 CUSA
223 Oakland 96.6 Horz
224 Columbia 96.5 Ivy
225 Wagner 96.5 NEC
226 Presbyterian 96.5 BSth
227 La Salle 96.4 A10
228 UNC Wilmington 96.3 CAA
229 Lamar 96.3 Slnd
230 The Citadel 96.2 SC
231 South Alabama 96.1 SB
232 Sam Houston St. 96.0 Slnd
233 East Carolina 96.0 Amer
234 UC Davis 95.9 BW
235 Fairfield 95.9 MAAC
236 California Baptist 95.9 WAC
237 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.9 NEC
238 Stephen F. Austin 95.8 Slnd
239 UT Arlington 95.7 SB
240 California 95.7 P12
241 Charleston Southern 95.6 BSth
242 Quinnipiac 95.6 MAAC
243 Canisius 95.6 MAAC
244 Maryland Baltimore Co. 95.5 AE
245 St. Francis PA 95.5 NEC
246 Idaho St. 95.5 BSky
247 UT Rio Grande Valley 95.4 WAC
248 Eastern Kentucky 95.4 OVC
249 Cornell 95.4 Ivy
250 UMass Lowell 95.3 AE
251 Sacred Heart 95.3 NEC
252 James Madison 95.2 CAA
253 Marist 95.2 MAAC
254 Long Island 95.2 NEC
255 Missouri Kansas City 95.1 WAC
256 Morehead St. 95.1 OVC
257 Army 95.1 Pat
258 Drexel 94.9 CAA
259 Robert Morris 94.8 NEC
260 UTEP 94.7 CUSA
261 Siena 94.6 MAAC
262 Arkansas St. 94.6 SB
263 North Dakota 94.5 Sum
264 George Washington 94.5 A10
265 Jacksonville 94.4 ASun
266 Air Force 94.4 MWC
267 North Carolina Central 94.3 MEAC
268 Houston Baptist 94.2 Slnd
269 Montana St. 94.2 BSky
270 Norfolk St. 94.2 MEAC
271 St. Francis (BKN) 94.1 NEC
272 Portland St. 94.1 BSky
273 Chattanooga 94.1 SC
274 Florida Gulf Coast 94.0 ASun
275 Sacramento St. 93.9 BSky
276 Eastern Washington 93.9 BSky
277 Towson 93.9 CAA
278 Prairie View A&M 93.8 SWAC
279 Texas A&M CC 93.7 Slnd
280 Tulane 93.7 Amer
281 Central Connecticut 93.6 NEC
282 Nicholls St. 93.6 Slnd
283 New Orleans 93.5 Slnd
284 Saint Peter’s 93.5 MAAC
285 Cleveland St. 93.4 Horz
286 Central Arkansas 93.4 Slnd
287 Middle Tennessee 93.2 CUSA
288 Southern Utah 93.2 BSky
289 Eastern Illinois 93.1 OVC
290 Monmouth 93.1 MAAC
291 Milwaukee 93.1 Horz
292 UC Riverside 93.1 BW
293 Western Illinois 93.0 Sum
294 Longwood 93.0 BSth
295 Niagara 93.0 MAAC
296 Lafayette 93.0 Pat
297 Albany 92.9 AE
298 Rice 92.9 CUSA
299 Youngstown St. 92.8 Horz
300 North Carolina A&T 92.7 MEAC
301 Oral Roberts 92.7 Sum
302 Charlotte 92.7 CUSA
303 Western Carolina 92.6 SC
304 Southeast Missouri St. 92.4 OVC
305 Wyoming 92.3 MWC
306 Northern Arizona 92.2 BSky
307 Loyola (MD.) 92.2 Pat
308 Bethune Cookman 92.2 MEAC
309 Navy 92.0 Pat
310 Howard 92.0 MEAC
311 Tennessee Martin 92.0 OVC
312 McNeese St. 91.9 Slnd
313 Grambling 91.8 SWAC
314 Cal St. Northridge 91.8 BW
315 Tennessee St. 91.7 OVC
316 Denver 91.5 Sum
317 Portland 91.3 WCC
318 USC Upstate 91.1 BSth
319 Southeastern Louisiana 91.1 Slnd
320 Cal Poly 91.0 BW
321 Binghamton 90.7 AE
322 Alabama St. 90.6 SWAC
323 Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.5 SWAC
324 Idaho 90.3 BSky
325 Maine 90.0 AE
326 Elon 89.9 CAA
327 Tennessee Tech 89.7 OVC
328 North Alabama 89.6 ASun
329 VMI 89.6 SC
330 Manhattan 89.5 MAAC
331 Morgan St. 89.5 MEAC
332 Florida A&M 89.1 MEAC
333 South Carolina St. 89.1 MEAC
334 Bryant 89.0 NEC
335 Mount St. Mary’s 89.0 NEC
336 Jackson St. 88.9 SWAC
337 SIU Edwardsville 88.8 OVC
338 San Jose St. 88.4 MWC
339 New Hampshire 88.3 AE
340 Southern 87.9 SWAC
341 Northwestern St. 86.9 Slnd
342 Incarnate Word 86.8 Slnd
343 Stetson 86.8 ASun
344 Kennesaw St. 85.8 ASun
345 Alcorn St. 85.6 SWAC
346 Alabama A&M 84.5 SWAC
347 UNC Asheville 84.4 BSth
348 Coppin St. 84.3 MEAC
349 Savannah St. 84.0 MEAC
350 Mississippi Valley St. 83.8 SWAC
351 Chicago St. 82.6 WAC
352 Maryland Eastern Shore 82.1 MEAC
353 Delaware St. 80.3 MEAC

 

Ratings By Conference

America East
Vermont 106.4
Stony Brook 101.1
Hartford 97.7
Maryland Baltimore Co. 95.5
UMass Lowell 95.3
Albany 92.9
Binghamton 90.7
Maine 90.0
New Hampshire 88.3
American Athletic
Cincinnati 111.7
Houston 111.1
Central Florida 109.9
Temple 106.9
SMU 106.1
Connecticut 105.9
Memphis 104.7
Wichita St. 103.0
Tulsa 102.1
South Florida 101.4
East Carolina 96.0
Tulane 93.7
Atlantic 10
Virginia Commonwealth 107.5
Dayton 106.9
Davidson 105.7
Saint Louis 104.6
Rhode Island 103.9
George Mason 102.8
St. Bonaventure 100.8
Massachusetts 100.7
Richmond 100.0
Saint Joseph’s 99.7
Duquesne 99.3
Fordham 97.0
La Salle 96.4
George Washington 94.5
Atlantic Coast
Duke 123.8
Virginia 120.7
North Carolina 117.7
Virginia Tech 116.5
North Carolina St. 113.8
Florida St. 113.1
Louisville 112.1
Syracuse 110.3
Clemson 109.4
Miami (Fla.) 107.8
Georgia Tech 107.0
Notre Dame 106.2
Pittsburgh 105.8
Boston College 103.7
Wake Forest 100.9
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb 108.1
Liberty 106.7
NJIT 99.8
North Florida 98.2
Jacksonville 94.4
Florida Gulf Coast 94.0
North Alabama 89.6
Stetson 86.8
Kennesaw St. 85.8
Big 12
Kansas 116.1
Texas Tech 115.9
Iowa St. 113.9
Oklahoma 112.8
TCU 111.9
Texas 110.6
Kansas St. 108.8
Baylor 108.6
West Virginia 107.7
Oklahoma St. 105.8
Big East
Villanova 112.7
Marquette 111.6
Creighton 110.2
Butler 109.9
St. John’s 109.7
Seton Hall 109.0
Providence 106.2
Xavier 106.0
Georgetown 105.5
DePaul 104.5
Big Sky
Montana 104.2
Weber St. 99.6
Northern Colorado 99.2
Idaho St. 95.5
Montana St. 94.2
Portland St. 94.1
Sacramento St. 93.9
Eastern Washington 93.9
Southern Utah 93.2
Northern Arizona 92.2
Idaho 90.3
Big South
Winthrop 101.7
Radford 101.5
Gardner Webb 100.8
Hampton 97.0
Campbell 96.7
High Point 96.6
Presbyterian 96.5
Charleston Southern 95.6
Longwood 93.0
USC Upstate 91.1
UNC Asheville 84.4
Big Ten
Michigan St. 119.9
Michigan 116.6
Nebraska 114.2
Wisconsin 113.7
Purdue 113.7
Indiana 112.4
Maryland 112.2
Ohio St. 112.0
Iowa 111.3
Northwestern 108.0
Minnesota 107.9
Penn St. 107.2
Illinois 104.4
Rutgers 104.3
Big West
UC Irvine 104.4
UC Santa Barbara 102.1
Cal St. Fullerton 98.7
Hawaii 98.0
Long Beach St. 97.5
UC Davis 95.9
UC Riverside 93.1
Cal St. Northridge 91.8
Cal Poly 91.0
Colonial Athletic
Hofstra 105.8
Northeastern 104.5
Charleston 103.5
William & Mary 97.3
Delaware 96.6
UNC Wilmington 96.3
James Madison 95.2
Drexel 94.9
Towson 93.9
Elon 89.9
Conference USA
Western Kentucky 105.3
Old Dominion 104.5
North Texas 103.6
Louisiana Tech 102.4
Marshall 102.2
Southern Miss 100.3
UAB 99.3
UTSA 97.8
Florida Atlantic 96.8
Florida Int’l. 96.6
UTEP 94.7
Middle Tennessee 93.2
Rice 92.9
Charlotte 92.7
Horizon
Northern Kentucky 104.3
Wright St. 100.7
Green Bay 98.1
IUPUI 98.1
Illinois Chicago 97.3
Detroit 96.6
Oakland 96.6
Cleveland St. 93.4
Milwaukee 93.1
Youngstown St. 92.8
Ivy
Yale 105.1
Penn 103.1
Harvard 103.0
Brown 102.3
Princeton 100.1
Dartmouth 98.5
Columbia 96.5
Cornell 95.4
Metro Atlantic
Rider 101.6
Iona 97.6
Fairfield 95.9
Quinnipiac 95.6
Canisius 95.6
Marist 95.2
Siena 94.6
Saint Peter’s 93.5
Monmouth 93.1
Niagara 93.0
Manhattan 89.5
Mid-American
Buffalo 113.5
Toledo 106.6
Ball St. 105.5
Akron 103.4
Northern Illinois 102.8
Bowling Green 101.6
Central Michigan 99.9
Ohio 99.8
Eastern Michigan 99.4
Kent St. 99.2
Miami (O) 98.9
Western Michigan 97.3
Mideastern Athletic
North Carolina Central 94.3
Norfolk St. 94.2
North Carolina A&T 92.7
Bethune Cookman 92.2
Howard 92.0
Morgan St. 89.5
Florida A&M 89.1
South Carolina St. 89.1
Coppin St. 84.3
Savannah St. 84.0
Maryland Eastern Shore 82.1
Delaware St. 80.3
Missouri Valley
Loyola (Chi.) 104.9
Southern Illinois 101.9
Drake 101.8
Valparaiso 100.9
Illinois St. 99.2
Missouri St. 99.1
Evansville 98.9
Indiana St. 98.8
Bradley 97.6
Northern Iowa 97.6
Mountain West
Nevada 114.8
Utah St. 108.8
Fresno St. 107.7
Boise St. 103.8
San Diego St. 102.5
UNLV 101.5
New Mexico 99.9
Colorado St. 97.4
Air Force 94.4
Wyoming 92.3
San Jose St. 88.4
Northeast
Wagner 96.5
Fairleigh Dickinson 95.9
St. Francis PA 95.5
Sacred Heart 95.3
Long Island 95.2
Robert Morris 94.8
St. Francis (BKN) 94.1
Central Connecticut 93.6
Bryant 89.0
Mount St. Mary’s 89.0
Ohio Valley
Murray St. 108.3
Belmont 105.4
Austin Peay 103.5
Jacksonville St. 102.9
Eastern Kentucky 95.4
Morehead St. 95.1
Eastern Illinois 93.1
Southeast Missouri St. 92.4
Tennessee Martin 92.0
Tennessee St. 91.7
Tennessee Tech 89.7
SIU Edwardsville 88.8
Pac-12
Oregon 109.2
Arizona 109.0
Washington 108.9
Arizona St. 108.2
Oregon St. 106.7
UCLA 106.4
Colorado 105.7
USC 105.0
Stanford 102.7
Utah 102.2
Washington St. 97.3
California 95.7
Patriot
Bucknell 101.1
Lehigh 100.8
Colgate 99.9
Holy Cross 99.8
American 98.4
Boston University 97.4
Army 95.1
Lafayette 93.0
Loyola (MD.) 92.2
Navy 92.0
Southeastern
Tennessee 118.9
Auburn 115.2
Kentucky 114.1
Florida 112.0
Mississippi St. 111.8
Mississippi 110.8
LSU 110.1
Arkansas 107.4
Alabama 107.4
Vanderbilt 105.8
Texas A&M 105.5
Georgia 105.3
South Carolina 105.1
Missouri 105.0
Southern
Wofford 110.3
East Tennessee St. 107.0
Furman 104.9
UNC Greensboro 104.0
Samford 99.9
Mercer 99.3
The Citadel 96.2
Chattanooga 94.1
Western Carolina 92.6
VMI 89.6
Southland
Abilene Christian 99.3
Lamar 96.3
Sam Houston St. 96.0
Stephen F. Austin 95.8
Houston Baptist 94.2
Texas A&M CC 93.7
Nicholls St. 93.6
New Orleans 93.5
Central Arkansas 93.4
McNeese St. 91.9
Southeastern Louisiana 91.1
Northwestern St. 86.9
Incarnate Word 86.8
Southwestern Athletic
Texas Southern 98.3
Prairie View A&M 93.8
Grambling 91.8
Alabama St. 90.6
Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.5
Jackson St. 88.9
Southern 87.9
Alcorn St. 85.6
Alabama A&M 84.5
Mississippi Valley St. 83.8
Summit
South Dakota St. 106.3
Purdue Fort Wayne 100.2
Omaha 98.3
North Dakota St. 97.9
South Dakota 97.6
North Dakota 94.5
Western Illinois 93.0
Oral Roberts 92.7
Denver 91.5
Sun Belt
Georgia St. 104.7
Texas St. 103.7
Georgia Southern 103.3
Louisiana Monroe 101.4
Louisiana 100.8
Coastal Carolina 99.1
Troy 98.1
Appalachian St. 97.2
Little Rock 97.1
South Alabama 96.1
UT Arlington 95.7
Arkansas St. 94.6
West Coast
Gonzaga 120.8
Saint Mary’s 110.4
San Francisco 108.9
BYU 105.2
San Diego 104.1
Loyola Marymount 101.6
Pacific 99.0
Pepperdine 98.9
Santa Clara 97.2
Portland 91.3
Western Athletic
New Mexico St. 105.7
Grand Canyon 104.2
Utah Valley 102.4
Seattle 100.3
Cal St. Bakersfield 98.8
California Baptist 95.9
UT Rio Grande Valley 95.4
Missouri Kansas City 95.1
Chicago St. 82.6

 

Conference Ratings

1 Atlantic Coast 111.3
2 Big Ten 111.3
3 Big 12 111.2
4 Southeastern 109.6
5 Big East 108.5
6 Pac-12 104.8
7 American Athletic 104.4
8 West Coast 103.8
9 Mid-American 102.3
10 Atlantic 10 101.4
11 Mountain West 101.1
12 Ivy 100.5
13 Missouri Valley 100.1
14 Southern 99.8
15 Sun Belt 99.3
16 Conference USA 98.7
17 Colonial Athletic 97.8
18 Western Athletic 97.8
19 Horizon 97.1
20 Patriot 97.0
21 Big West 96.9
22 Summit 96.9
23 Ohio Valley 96.5
24 Atlantic Sun 95.9
25 Big South 95.9
26 Big Sky 95.5
27 America East 95.3
28 Metro Atlantic 95.0
29 Northeast 93.9
30 Southland 93.3
31 Southwestern Athletic 89.6
32 Mideastern Athletic 88.6

 

PiRate Ratings Alphabetical Listing

Rk Team PiRate Conf
173 Abilene Christian 99.3 Slnd
266 Air Force 94.4 MWC
121 Akron 103.4 MAC
63 Alabama 107.4 SEC
346 Alabama A&M 84.5 SWAC
322 Alabama St. 90.6 SWAC
297 Albany 92.9 AE
345 Alcorn St. 85.6 SWAC
190 American 98.4 Pat
213 Appalachian St. 97.2 SB
46 Arizona 109.0 P12
54 Arizona St. 108.2 P12
62 Arkansas 107.4 SEC
323 Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.5 SWAC
262 Arkansas St. 94.6 SB
257 Army 95.1 Pat
11 Auburn 115.2 SEC
119 Austin Peay 103.5 OVC
87 Ball St. 105.5 MAC
52 Baylor 108.6 B12
90 Belmont 105.4 OVC
308 Bethune Cookman 92.2 MEAC
321 Binghamton 90.7 AE
115 Boise St. 103.8 MWC
117 Boston College 103.7 ACC
207 Boston University 97.4 Pat
143 Bowling Green 101.6 MAC
202 Bradley 97.6 MVC
133 Brown 102.3 Ivy
334 Bryant 89.0 NEC
149 Bucknell 101.1 Pat
19 Buffalo 113.5 MAC
41 Butler 109.9 BE
93 BYU 105.2 WCC
320 Cal Poly 91.0 BW
187 Cal St. Bakersfield 98.8 WAC
188 Cal St. Fullerton 98.7 BW
314 Cal St. Northridge 91.8 BW
240 California 95.7 P12
236 California Baptist 95.9 WAC
218 Campbell 96.7 BSth
243 Canisius 95.6 MAAC
286 Central Arkansas 93.4 Slnd
281 Central Connecticut 93.6 NEC
42 Central Florida 109.9 Amer
166 Central Michigan 99.9 MAC
120 Charleston 103.5 CAA
241 Charleston Southern 95.6 BSth
302 Charlotte 92.7 CUSA
273 Chattanooga 94.1 SC
351 Chicago St. 82.6 WAC
30 Cincinnati 111.7 Amer
44 Clemson 109.4 ACC
285 Cleveland St. 93.4 Horz
180 Coastal Carolina 99.1 SB
163 Colgate 99.9 Pat
86 Colorado 105.7 P12
206 Colorado St. 97.4 MWC
224 Columbia 96.5 Ivy
79 Connecticut 105.9 Amer
348 Coppin St. 84.3 MEAC
249 Cornell 95.4 Ivy
39 Creighton 110.2 BE
189 Dartmouth 98.5 Ivy
85 Davidson 105.7 A10
68 Dayton 106.9 A10
220 Delaware 96.6 CAA
353 Delaware St. 80.3 MEAC
316 Denver 91.5 Sum
104 DePaul 104.5 BE
221 Detroit 96.6 Horz
139 Drake 101.8 MVC
258 Drexel 94.9 CAA
1 Duke 123.8 ACC
174 Duquesne 99.3 A10
233 East Carolina 96.0 Amer
66 East Tennessee St. 107.0 SC
289 Eastern Illinois 93.1 OVC
248 Eastern Kentucky 95.4 OVC
172 Eastern Michigan 99.4 MAC
276 Eastern Washington 93.9 BSky
326 Elon 89.9 CAA
183 Evansville 98.9 MVC
235 Fairfield 95.9 MAAC
237 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.9 NEC
27 Florida 112.0 SEC
332 Florida A&M 89.1 MEAC
217 Florida Atlantic 96.8 CUSA
274 Florida Gulf Coast 94.0 ASun
222 Florida Int’l. 96.6 CUSA
20 Florida St. 113.1 ACC
215 Fordham 97.0 A10
59 Fresno St. 107.7 MWC
99 Furman 104.9 SC
155 Gardner Webb 100.8 BSth
128 George Mason 102.8 A10
264 George Washington 94.5 A10
88 Georgetown 105.5 BE
91 Georgia 105.3 SEC
122 Georgia Southern 103.3 SB
101 Georgia St. 104.7 SB
65 Georgia Tech 107.0 ACC
2 Gonzaga 120.8 WCC
313 Grambling 91.8 SWAC
111 Grand Canyon 104.2 WAC
194 Green Bay 98.1 Horz
216 Hampton 97.0 BSth
200 Hartford 97.7 AE
124 Harvard 103.0 Ivy
197 Hawaii 98.0 BW
219 High Point 96.6 BSth
80 Hofstra 105.8 CAA
168 Holy Cross 99.8 Pat
33 Houston 111.1 Amer
268 Houston Baptist 94.2 Slnd
310 Howard 92.0 MEAC
324 Idaho 90.3 BSky
246 Idaho St. 95.5 BSky
107 Illinois 104.4 B10
210 Illinois Chicago 97.3 Horz
177 Illinois St. 99.2 MVC
342 Incarnate Word 86.8 Slnd
23 Indiana 112.4 B10
186 Indiana St. 98.8 MVC
203 Iona 97.6 MAAC
32 Iowa 111.3 B10
15 Iowa St. 113.9 B12
195 IUPUI 98.1 Horz
336 Jackson St. 88.9 SWAC
265 Jacksonville 94.4 ASun
126 Jacksonville St. 102.9 OVC
252 James Madison 95.2 CAA
9 Kansas 116.1 B12
50 Kansas St. 108.8 B12
344 Kennesaw St. 85.8 ASun
178 Kent St. 99.2 MAC
14 Kentucky 114.1 SEC
227 La Salle 96.4 A10
296 Lafayette 93.0 Pat
229 Lamar 96.3 Slnd
154 Lehigh 100.8 Pat
69 Liberty 106.7 ASun
55 Lipscomb 108.1 ASun
214 Little Rock 97.1 SB
205 Long Beach St. 97.5 BW
254 Long Island 95.2 NEC
294 Longwood 93.0 BSth
152 Louisiana 100.8 SB
146 Louisiana Monroe 101.4 SB
132 Louisiana Tech 102.4 CUSA
25 Louisville 112.1 ACC
98 Loyola (Chi.) 104.9 MVC
307 Loyola (MD.) 92.2 Pat
142 Loyola Marymount 101.6 WCC
40 LSU 110.1 SEC
325 Maine 90.0 AE
330 Manhattan 89.5 MAAC
253 Marist 95.2 MAAC
31 Marquette 111.6 BE
135 Marshall 102.2 CUSA
24 Maryland 112.2 B10
244 Maryland Baltimore Co. 95.5 AE
352 Maryland Eastern Shore 82.1 MEAC
156 Massachusetts 100.7 A10
312 McNeese St. 91.9 Slnd
100 Memphis 104.7 Amer
175 Mercer 99.3 SC
58 Miami (Fla.) 107.8 ACC
185 Miami (O) 98.9 MAC
7 Michigan 116.6 B10
4 Michigan St. 119.9 B10
287 Middle Tennessee 93.2 CUSA
291 Milwaukee 93.1 Horz
57 Minnesota 107.9 B10
34 Mississippi 110.8 SEC
29 Mississippi St. 111.8 SEC
350 Mississippi Valley St. 83.8 SWAC
96 Missouri 105.0 SEC
255 Missouri Kansas City 95.1 WAC
181 Missouri St. 99.1 MVC
290 Monmouth 93.1 MAAC
110 Montana 104.2 BSky
269 Montana St. 94.2 BSky
256 Morehead St. 95.1 OVC
331 Morgan St. 89.5 MEAC
335 Mount St. Mary’s 89.0 NEC
53 Murray St. 108.3 OVC
309 Navy 92.0 Pat
13 Nebraska 114.2 B10
12 Nevada 114.8 MWC
339 New Hampshire 88.3 AE
165 New Mexico 99.9 MWC
84 New Mexico St. 105.7 WAC
283 New Orleans 93.5 Slnd
295 Niagara 93.0 MAAC
282 Nicholls St. 93.6 Slnd
169 NJIT 99.8 ASun
270 Norfolk St. 94.2 MEAC
328 North Alabama 89.6 ASun
6 North Carolina 117.7 ACC
300 North Carolina A&T 92.7 MEAC
267 North Carolina Central 94.3 MEAC
16 North Carolina St. 113.8 ACC
263 North Dakota 94.5 Sum
198 North Dakota St. 97.9 Sum
193 North Florida 98.2 ASun
118 North Texas 103.6 CUSA
105 Northeastern 104.5 CAA
306 Northern Arizona 92.2 BSky
179 Northern Colorado 99.2 BSky
127 Northern Illinois 102.8 MAC
204 Northern Iowa 97.6 MVC
109 Northern Kentucky 104.3 Horz
56 Northwestern 108.0 B10
341 Northwestern St. 86.9 Slnd
75 Notre Dame 106.2 ACC
223 Oakland 96.6 Horz
167 Ohio 99.8 MAC
26 Ohio St. 112.0 B10
21 Oklahoma 112.8 B12
83 Oklahoma St. 105.8 B12
103 Old Dominion 104.5 CUSA
191 Omaha 98.3 Sum
301 Oral Roberts 92.7 Sum
45 Oregon 109.2 P12
70 Oregon St. 106.7 P12
182 Pacific 99.0 WCC
123 Penn 103.1 Ivy
64 Penn St. 107.2 B10
184 Pepperdine 98.9 WCC
82 Pittsburgh 105.8 ACC
317 Portland 91.3 WCC
272 Portland St. 94.1 BSky
278 Prairie View A&M 93.8 SWAC
226 Presbyterian 96.5 BSth
161 Princeton 100.1 Ivy
76 Providence 106.2 BE
18 Purdue 113.7 B10
160 Purdue Fort Wayne 100.2 Sum
242 Quinnipiac 95.6 MAAC
144 Radford 101.5 BSth
114 Rhode Island 103.9 A10
298 Rice 92.9 CUSA
162 Richmond 100.0 A10
141 Rider 101.6 MAAC
259 Robert Morris 94.8 NEC
108 Rutgers 104.3 B10
275 Sacramento St. 93.9 BSky
251 Sacred Heart 95.3 NEC
170 Saint Joseph’s 99.7 A10
102 Saint Louis 104.6 A10
36 Saint Mary’s 110.4 WCC
284 Saint Peter’s 93.5 MAAC
232 Sam Houston St. 96.0 Slnd
164 Samford 99.9 SC
112 San Diego 104.1 WCC
130 San Diego St. 102.5 MWC
48 San Francisco 108.9 WCC
338 San Jose St. 88.4 MWC
212 Santa Clara 97.2 WCC
349 Savannah St. 84.0 MEAC
158 Seattle 100.3 WAC
47 Seton Hall 109.0 BE
261 Siena 94.6 MAAC
337 SIU Edwardsville 88.8 OVC
77 SMU 106.1 Amer
231 South Alabama 96.1 SB
95 South Carolina 105.1 SEC
333 South Carolina St. 89.1 MEAC
201 South Dakota 97.6 Sum
74 South Dakota St. 106.3 Sum
147 South Florida 101.4 Amer
304 Southeast Missouri St. 92.4 OVC
319 Southeastern Louisiana 91.1 Slnd
340 Southern 87.9 SWAC
138 Southern Illinois 101.9 MVC
159 Southern Miss 100.3 CUSA
288 Southern Utah 93.2 BSky
153 St. Bonaventure 100.8 A10
271 St. Francis (BKN) 94.1 NEC
245 St. Francis PA 95.5 NEC
43 St. John’s 109.7 BE
129 Stanford 102.7 P12
238 Stephen F. Austin 95.8 Slnd
343 Stetson 86.8 ASun
148 Stony Brook 101.1 AE
38 Syracuse 110.3 ACC
28 TCU 111.9 B12
67 Temple 106.9 Amer
5 Tennessee 118.9 SEC
311 Tennessee Martin 92.0 OVC
315 Tennessee St. 91.7 OVC
327 Tennessee Tech 89.7 OVC
35 Texas 110.6 B12
89 Texas A&M 105.5 SEC
279 Texas A&M CC 93.7 Slnd
192 Texas Southern 98.3 SWAC
116 Texas St. 103.7 SB
10 Texas Tech 115.9 B12
230 The Citadel 96.2 SC
71 Toledo 106.6 MAC
277 Towson 93.9 CAA
196 Troy 98.1 SB
280 Tulane 93.7 Amer
136 Tulsa 102.1 Amer
176 UAB 99.3 CUSA
234 UC Davis 95.9 BW
106 UC Irvine 104.4 BW
292 UC Riverside 93.1 BW
137 UC Santa Barbara 102.1 BW
72 UCLA 106.4 P12
250 UMass Lowell 95.3 AE
347 UNC Asheville 84.4 BSth
113 UNC Greensboro 104.0 SC
228 UNC Wilmington 96.3 CAA
145 UNLV 101.5 MWC
97 USC 105.0 P12
318 USC Upstate 91.1 BSth
239 UT Arlington 95.7 SB
247 UT Rio Grande Valley 95.4 WAC
134 Utah 102.2 P12
51 Utah St. 108.8 MWC
131 Utah Valley 102.4 WAC
260 UTEP 94.7 CUSA
199 UTSA 97.8 CUSA
151 Valparaiso 100.9 MVC
81 Vanderbilt 105.8 SEC
73 Vermont 106.4 AE
22 Villanova 112.7 BE
3 Virginia 120.7 ACC
61 Virginia Commonwealth 107.5 A10
8 Virginia Tech 116.5 ACC
329 VMI 89.6 SC
225 Wagner 96.5 NEC
150 Wake Forest 100.9 ACC
49 Washington 108.9 P12
208 Washington St. 97.3 P12
171 Weber St. 99.6 BSky
60 West Virginia 107.7 B12
303 Western Carolina 92.6 SC
293 Western Illinois 93.0 Sum
92 Western Kentucky 105.3 CUSA
211 Western Michigan 97.3 MAC
125 Wichita St. 103.0 Amer
209 William & Mary 97.3 CAA
140 Winthrop 101.7 BSth
17 Wisconsin 113.7 B10
37 Wofford 110.3 SC
157 Wright St. 100.7 Horz
305 Wyoming 92.3 MWC
78 Xavier 106.0 BE
94 Yale 105.1 Ivy
299 Youngstown St. 92.8 Horz

 

 

 

 

November 5, 2018

Final Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

Pardon our brevity today, but we do have other tasks at hands on the PiRate ship.  This is our final election eve analytical look at the 2018 Mid-term Election races.

U.S. Senate

We were tempted to make one slight change today based on the final reliable polling coming from a couple of honest pollsters.  However, in these states, Early Voting has already seen large percentages of voters deciding.  We have to use the polls at the time of Early Voting, so we did not move the needle at all.

For three weeks, we have been split between 53-47 and 54-46 in favor of the Republicans in the Senate.  Our Over/Under spread would be 53 1/2.

U.S. House of Representatives

This could take up hours more than we have to explain, and if you are reading this 14 hours before the polls open on the East Coast, you only have time for a couple of paragraphs.

Based on our models of handicapping the polls based on their recent biases from the previous election, we believe that the Democrats are assured of picking up 13 seats as their floor and 34 seats as their ceiling.  They currently own 193 seats, so this bumps their minimum in the next Congress to 206 and a maximum of 227.  It takes 218 to get a majority.

We believe that there are about 26 seats remaining that are true tossup races.  Of the 26 tossups, the Democrats need to win 12 of the races to gain control.  If you factor in that the Democrats polled a little better three weeks ago when some states commenced with early voting, we tend to tilt the needle of toss-up races in their favor.  If we had to wager on an over/under number for the number of Democrats in the next Congress, we’d place that number at 219.5, since our data shows the Democrats taking control of the House by a margin of 219 to 216 or 220 to 215.

Gubernatorial Races

We must admit that we did not perform any additional data mining on the governor’s races.  We will stick with our over/under number of 26.5 in favor of the Republicans, as our data is split between 26-24 and 27-23 in favor of the GOP.

 

Our plea with our incredible brothers and sisters of the greatest nation in the world.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, please act like a good and decent human being and accept the results without resulting to violence.  Our nation received the most incredible gift from our Founding Fathers.

There is a fantastic quote attributable to Benjamin Franklin in 1787.  When Franklin was leaving Independence Hall following long hours of discussion at the Constitutional Convention, a lady asked Franklin as he left the hall whether our new nation would be a Republic or a Monarchy.

Franklin’s genius reply was, “A Republic if you can keep it.”

My fellow friends and countrymen, we are doing our worst not to keep it.  I lived through the 1968 through 1972 election cycle.  I never believed the nation could become more divided then than ever again in my lifetime.  We are approaching this four year black eye.  Let’s stop it before it can surpass those four years.

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

November 1, 2018

Update To An Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

This update to the statistical analysis we gave two weeks ago will be shorter than the previous post given due to time constraints, but we believe it will be a little more accurate now that there are many additional points to plot on our regression boards.

SENATE

Safe Seats

California
Dianne Feinstein (D)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)

Delaware
Tom Carper (D)

Hawaii
Mazie Hirano (D)

Maine
Angus King (I)
King caucuses with the Democrats.

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D)

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)

Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)

Nebraska
Deb Fischer (R)

New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D)

New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

Utah
Mitt Romney (R)

Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Sanders caucuses with the Democrats.

Virginia
Tim Kaine (D)

Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)

Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)

Moved from Safe to Leaning

Minnesota Special Election
Tina Smith (D) vs. Karin Housley (R) Smith +4

Smith has the advantage, but her lead has dwindled to the point where a large GOP voting turnout could flip this seat to the Republicans. Housley has proven to be a formidable campaigner and has cut a double-digit lead down to within the margin of error when our formula has been applied.

Toss-up States

Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Martha McSally (R)

Recent news of statements made by Sinema concerning her constituents has cost her almost any chance of winning this race. It is almost a safe seat for the Republicans

Florida
Bill Nelson (D)
Rick Scott (R)

This is probably the closest race in the Senate. Voter turnout on election day will decide the winner. The stats show Nelson with less than two-tenths of a percent lead. Might there be a challenge by whoever loses? In Florida, it’s a good chance.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D)
Mike Braun (R)
Lucy Brenton (L)

This race became a lot more interesting at the end of October, as the Indiana Democratic Party released a mass mailer telling people to vote for Libertarian candidate Brenton, as a ploy to get Braun supporters to vote for Brenton and thus give Donnelly the win. Braun was once a Democrat, and he may lose just enough support to Brenton for Donnelly to win with a plurality but not a majority of the vote.

Mississippi Special Election Primary
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Mike Espy (D)
Chris McDaniel (R)
Toby Bartee (D)

Hyde-Smith appears to be in excellent shape to finish in first in the open primary, but she should fall short of the needed 50%+1 vote to avoid a runoff election. McDaniel is closing in on Espy for second place, but it would be a major upset if the runoff election did not pit Hyde-Smith against Espy. Hyde-Smith polls double digits ahead of Espy in the runoff, which will be held on November 27.

Missouri
Josh Hawley (R)
Claire McCaskill (D)

James O’Keefe at Project Veritas is proving to be the 21st Century version of Mike Wallace from 60 Minutes in the 1970’s and 1980’s. His undercover sleuthing looks to have proven to be a mortal wound for McCaskill, and The Show Me State is looking like a Republican pick-up. O’Keefe showed them.

Montana
Jon Tester (D)
Matt Rosendale (R)

This race has gotten even tighter since our last report. We have moved it to leaning Democrat to toss-up. Tester led this race by close to double digits just after Labor Day, but it is now well within the margin of error, and this is usually a Red state. We believe that Rosendale may have a slightly better than 50-50 chance of defeating the incumbent Tester.  With the Independent candidate dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale, this could give the Republican the final two or three percent he needs to defeat Tester.

 

New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D)
Bob Hugin (R)

Menendez should have secured this victory weeks ago, but Hugin continues to remain within striking distance. How the suburban turnout goes on Election Day will determine if this race will be decided by less than 2% either way. We still believe Menendez will squeak by, but this race has moved from leaning Democrat to Toss-up barely favoring the Democrat.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R)
Jacky Rosen (D)

This is one race where we have tossed out the outlier polls on both sides. We believe these polls to be too partial and thus discount them to the point where they offer no accuracy. The remaining polls have showed a slow but steady climb in the numbers for Heller. Rosen needed to hit about 48% in the most recent reliable polls, and she has failed to do so. When the challenger cannot get to 48% in the final week of an election, the incumbent will win 90+% of the time. We believe Heller wins by as much as 6%.

North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R)
Heidi Heitkamp (D)

Really, we should put this race into the safe Republican section, but it began as an up for grabs seat, and we will leave it here. Heitkamp had too much against her in this state. Cramer has become a star in the House of Representatives, and the House seat in North Dakota is a statewide race. In essence, Cramer has more notoriety statewide than the incumbent Heitkamp. Plus, this is a heavy Red state, so the numbers just work against Heitkamp here. Expect Cramer to approach a double-digit win.

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D)
Lou Barletta (R)

Casey has never seriously been threatened in this race, as Barletta’s campaign never took off in the Metropolitan areas. Barletta needed to sweep the Pittsburgh suburbs, and it looks like he is barely getting a majority in this area. Meanwhile, Philadelphia supports Casey by a large margin, and this will lead to Casey winning in a minor landslide.

Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Phil Bredesen (D)

James O’Keefe strikes again! Former Nashville Mayor and Governor Bredesen was holding his own in this race in a state that went heavy for President Trump in 2016. When Project Veritas released video of the Bredesen campaign admitting that support for Justice Kavanaugh was a lie, it threw this race into safe territory for the GOP. Plus, Bredesen might have already lost a little of his female base by showing support for Kavanaugh. Blackburn has a chance to score a double-digit victory and become the first female ever to be elected to statewide office in Tennessee.

Texas
Ted Cruz (R)
Beto O’Rourke (D)

Cruz is polliing above 50% in all major polls, so this race can be put into the safe Republican seat category. O’Rourke played Russian Roulette with his stance on guns, and he was the unlucky participant.

Late note: Project Veritas struck again Thursday night when they released information showing O’Rourke campaign staffers admitting to illegally using campaign funds to supply the Honduran Caravan.  It should be the final nail in the candidate’s coffin.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D)
Patrick Morrisey (R)

Because of the limited number of polls that meet our criteria for limited bias, this race may be the hardest one for us to analyze. Manchin was once above 50% in many polls and is now below 50% in all the reliable polls. Incumbents need to stay above 48% at this point in the race in hopes to receive 2% more from the undecideds. Manchin’s average polling numbers at the end of October place him at 46-47%. Morrisey has about 43%, which means an abnormally high 10% of West Virginia’s likely voters are still undecided (or the polling data is flawed). Our statistical analysis shows that Manchin enters November with a 3% lead and with as much as 8% of likely voters still undecided. At 47.5 to 44.5, Manchin needs 2.5% of the remaining 8% to win. Incumbents tend to lose about 2/3 of the undecided vote in the final week of the election. Thus, we favor Manchin at 50.17% to 49.83% for Morrisey, in other words a very close race.

Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Leah Vukmir (R)

Baldwin is consistently polling between 52 and 55% in the polls with about 3-4% undecided votes. She should win by close to double-digits if not slightly over.

As of November 2, Our Prediction for the US Senate is:

Republicans 54
Democrats 46

This would be a pickup of three seats for the GOP. This would be the largest mid-term Senate gain for the President’s Party since 1962 when the Democrats gained four seats in the Mid-term with President John F. Kennedy in office. No Republican President has ever seen his party gain three seats in the Senate in a mid-term election, and George W. Bush, is the only other Republican president to see his party gain in the Senate mid-term election. In 2002, the GOP gained one seat.

 

The House of Representatives
This is the most interesting and the most difficult thing the PiRate Ratings have ever tried to analyze, be it sports, stock investments, or even when the first snow will fall in our base city. We have to admit that three of us stayed awake until past 3 AM pouring over notes and coming to different conclusions. One of us calculated a 27-seat gain for the Democrats, meaning they would own the majority at 220-215. One of us calculated that the Republicans would squeak by with a 219-216 majority and a loss of 16 seats. The third person totally screwed up his math and kept coming up with different numbers and had 436 votes until he realized at 3:15 AM that he had counted the 25th District of California twice. He came up with 220-215 majority for the GOP.
What does this mean? Be prepared to stay up all night next Tuesday into Wednesday morning, because there are a lot of toss-up races in the State of California, and polls don’t close there until maybe past your normal bedtime on the East Coast. We might not even know which party controls the House on Wednesday morning. What a big win for the news networks if this happens!

Current House Numbers
Republicans 235
Democrats 193
Vacancies 7

As of November 2, Our prediction for the House is.
Republicans 218
Democrats 217
The Democrats gain 24 total seats.

Governors
At the present time, there are 33 Republican Governors, 16 Democratic Governors, and One Independent Governor (Bill Walker of Alaska) that was once a Republican but who cut a deal with the former Democratic candidate to end his campaign and team up with him as his lieutenant governor. Walker supports the Democratic nominee Marc Begich.
There are 14 states that do not hold a Gubernatorial election this year, and it so happens that these 14 states consist of seven Republican and seven Democratic Governors. So, we begin with a 7-7 tie.

Safe for the Republicans: 12 (Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming)

Safe for the Democrats: 7 (California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island)

Subtotal: Republicans 19 Democrats 14

Leaning Republican: 4 (Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire)

Leaning Democratic: 4 (Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico)

Subtotal: Republicans 23 Democrats 18

Toss-up States: 9

Connecticut
Ned Lamont (D)
Bob Stefanowski (R)

Lamont has a slight lead and looks to have about a 75% chance of winning

Florida
Andrew Gillum (D)
Ron DeSantis (R)

Gillum was close to the 50% threshold until it became news that he is under investigation by the FBI for a corruption issue. His rating stopped at 48 and has dropped a percent or two. DeSantis now has the advantage, and more registered Republicans have voted early than registered Democrats. This looks like it is trending to DeSantis.

Iowa
Fred Hubbell (D)
Kim Reynolds (R)
Hubbell has a small lead that is within the margin of error, but he must be considered the favorite to win. We give Hubbell a 55% chance of winning.

Kansas
Laura Kelly (D)
Kris Kobach (R)
Greg Orman (I)

Orman has been polling close to double digits, and he will take away enough votes to decide this election. Kobach is likely to win because Orman will take away enough of Kelly’s support.

Nevada
Steve Sisolak (D)
Adam Laxalt (R)
Ryan Bundy (I)

This is an interesting race with news that can be considered beneficial to both sides. Laxalt had the lead in early October. Even with the Independent Bundy siphoning off some of his support, he appeared to be close to moving this race into the leaning Republican column. Early voting in crucial counties trended toward the Republicans scoring victories in both the Senate and Governor’s races. However, Heller does not have an Independent running in the Senate race. How much of the early voting Republican votes has gone to Bundy?

Then, an eleventh hour negative editorial by members of Laxalt’s family was published in print media and reported on in electronic media, where the family members claim that Laxalt is not a Nevadan but actually an Eastern elitist. Sisolak will pick up some votes here, and this race will go down to the wire.

Ohio
Richard Cordray (D)
Mike DeWine (R)

How about a flat-footed tie in a race? This one looks like a 50-50 race with just a week to go until the election. Early voting started in Ohio more than three weeks ago, and the turnout has been rather heavy, about 55% higher than the 2014 Mid-term election. If we had to bet, we’d give Cordray the very slightest edge, because the incumbent DeWine has not reached 48%, which is a vital number to us when looking at incumbents with one week to go in the race.

Oregon
Kate Brown (D)
Knute Buehler (R)

Brown doesn’t have the 48% minimum as the incumbent, but in this case, her opponent continues to lose a tiny bit of ground. Oregon is usually a Blue State, so we will give the edge to Brown.

South Dakota
Billie Sutton (D)
Kristi Noem (R)

Noem had more name recognition as a member of the House, while Sutton is a state senator. Noem has the advantage here as this is a Red state. Our prediction here is that Noem wins by 4-6%.

Wisconsin
Tony Evers (D)
Scott Walker (R)

Here is a race where the trend line is the strongest factor. Even though the incumbent Walker is one percent below the 48% threshold, his opponent is losing ground by a statistically-relevant number. Evers, a lifelong educator and three-time state public school superintendant was pushing 50% before negative ads hit the airwaves in the Badger State. Walker has since reached 47%, while Evers has fallen under 46%, and the trend line this late in the race tilts this one in favor of Walker.

As of November 2, Our prediction for the Governors’ races are:

Republicans 26
Democrats 23
1 race totally too close to call.

March 1, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 1, 2018

Conference Tournament Action From Last Night

Big Ten Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Iowa 96 Illinois 87
Rutgers 65 Minnesota 54

Updated Big Ten Bracket

Second Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 Maryland #9 Wisconsin Big Ten
2:15 PM #5 Michigan Iowa Big Ten
6:30 PM #7 Penn St. #10 Northwestern Big Ten
8:45 PM #6 Indiana Rutgers Big Ten
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Michigan St. Mary or Wisc Big Ten
2:15 PM #4 Nebraska Michigan or Iowa Big Ten
6:30 PM #2 Ohio St. PSU or N’Western Big Ten
8:45 PM #3 Purdue Indiana or Rutgers Big Ten
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM MSU/Mary/Wisc Neb/Mich/Iowa CBS
4:30 PM OSU/Purd/NW Purd/Ind/Rutg CBS
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:30 PM     CBS

 

Northeast Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Wagner 73 Central Connecticut 61
Robert Morris 60 Mount St. Mary’s 56
Fairleigh-Dickinson 84 St. Francis (Pa) 75
Long Island 73 St. Francis (Bkn) 50

Updated Northeast Conference Bracket

Semifinals–March 3
Time Home Team Visitors TV
12:00 PM #1 Wagner #7 Robert Morris ESPN3
2:00 PM #4 Long Island #6 Fairleigh-Dickinson ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN2

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Tennessee Tech 60 SIU-Edwardsville 51
Eastern Illinois 73 Tennessee St. 71

Updated Ohio Valley Conference Bracket

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 Jacksonville St. Tennessee Tech OVC
9:00 PM #3 Austin Peay Eastern Illinois OVC
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Murray St. Jax. St. or Tenn Tech ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Belmont APSU or E. Illinois ESPNU
       
Championship–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Other Conference Tournaments in Action Today

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #3 Jacksonville ESPN3

 

Big South Conference Tournament
Championship Game at Higher Seed
Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed UNC-Asheville
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #2 Radford #10 Longwood ESPN3
3:30 PM #3 Winthrop #6 Gardner-Webb ESPN3
7:00 PM #1 UNC-Asheville #8 Charleston Southern ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Campbell #5 Liberty ESPN3

 

Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Bucknell #8 Loyola (MD) Stadium
7:00 PM #4 Lehigh #5 Boston U Stadium
7:00 PM #2 Colgate #7 Lafayette Stadium
7:00 PM #3 Navy #6 Holy Cross Stadium

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #8 Monmouth #9 St. Peter’s ESPN3
7:30 PM #7 Quinnipiac #10 Siena ESPN3
10:00 PM #6 Fairfield #11 Marist ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Rider Monmouth or St. Peter’s ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 Canisius Quinn. or Siena ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #3 Niagara Fair. or Marist ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Iona #5 Manhattan ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Rider/Monm/St. P Iona or Manhattan ESPN3
9:30 PM Can/Quinn/Siena Niag/Fair/Marist ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

While Rider and Canisius tied for the regular season conference championship, there are two other teams to watch closely in this tournament.  Iona has the best offense in the league, and in a tournament, sometimes the team that plays loose and can fill it up from outside will get a large lead against the other team that begins tight and cannot hit their perimeter shots.  Iona is the two-time defending tournament champion, and until the Gaels lose, they are our favorite to win it again, even as the four-seed.

The other team to watch from back of the pack is Fairfield, the hottest team in the league entering the tournament.  The Stags match up quite well with Niagara, who they would face in the quarterfinal round if they win tonight.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All Times CST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 Evansville #9 Northern Iowa ESPN3
8:30 PM #7 Missouri St. #10 Valparaiso ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Loyola (Chi.) Evansville or UNI ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Drake #5 Bradley ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 Southern Illinois MSU or Valpo ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Illinois St. #6 Indiana St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM Loyola/Evans/UNI Drake or Bradley CBSSN
5:00 PM SIU/MSU/Valpo Ill St. or Ind St. CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     CBS

Without Wichita State playing bully on the rest of the league, it was thought that the Valley would be a wide open race this year with a host of teams competing for the regular season and tournament championships.  However, Loyola (Chi.), with five players averaging double figure scoring, has been nearly unstoppable in conference play this year.  The Ramblers have only been to a single NCAA Tournament since their heydays of the 1960’s,   Loyola enters Arch Madness on a 14 for 15 winning streak.

If any other team wins this tournament, it will be a major upset and will produce a 15-seed or worse.  Loyola could be a 13-seed as the Tournament Champions.

There is one team from way back in the pack that has the potential to sneak into the semifinals.  Northern Iowa is the number 9 seed.  If they beat Evansville tonight, they might be the team that can match up best with Loyola, who they would face tomorrow.  If they were to eliminate the Goliath, then there isn’t another team in the field any better than the Panthers.

 

March 10, 2017

Conference Tournament Update–Friday, March 10, 2017

Bubble Update

Iowa, Illinois, and Utah clinched bids yesterday, but it’s to the junior prom rather than the senior prom.  The trio are NIT-bound.  USC lost a close one to rival UCLA last night, but we believe the Trojans are rather safe for now.

Some interesting upsets has made it a nerve-wracking day for a few teams that thought they were on the good side of the Bubble.  Let’s take a look at those teams that received Bubble invitations Thursday.

A. TCU–The Horned Frogs pulled the big upset over Kansas, although the Jayhawks were missing a key player due to suspension.  Kansas will remain a #1 seed, but they could move down to the fourth top-seed.  Meanwhile, Jamie Dixon is looking like a genius, taking a program that has been down for a long time and bringing it to the precipice of NCAA Tournament membership.  A Frog win today over Iowa State would give TCU 20 wins with a better than average schedule strength.  It would be mighty impressive on a resume, and the Committee would probably move that piece of paper up into the “accepted pile.”

B. Kansas State–The surprises kept coming in Kansas City, as the Wildcats knocked off Baylor in the nightcap of the Big 12 Quarterfinals.  At this point, K-State may have done enough to earn a bid, so this is probably the end of the line for Illinois State, and it could put a Friday Bubble loser in jeopardy.

C. Indiana demolished Iowa yesterday, and the Hoosiers looked more like the team they were suppose to be this year.  If IU drops Wisconsin today, the Hoosier will have a chance to make the field.  However, the Committee does not seem to favor the Big Ten this year, and it would be difficult to substantiate Indiana making the field if they do not advance to the Championship Game.  Purdue may be fortunate to become a 4-seed, and with Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State all expected to make the field, an eighth Big Ten team would have to be very impressive in the next couple of days in order to make the field.  The interesting plot line here is that IU can win this tournament if they continue to play like they did yesterday, and then it would almost be a given that the Big Ten sent eight teams.  That would definitely burst a Bubble down the line.

D. Xavier had played itself down to the Bubble prior to Big East Tournament play, but the Musketeers moved back to the safe zone with their win over Butler Thursday.  XU will get a bid even if Creighton tops them tonight.

Bubblelicious Games on Friday

If your favorite team is still in that gray area,  and another upset or two makes the Committee order more ice cream, it could be a nervous 48 hours if your team loses today.  Here are the teams that should consider today must win games, even if some Bracketologists consider these teams to be in the field.  The key is that our 13 Bracketology Gurus are not unanimous in their beliefs that these teams are safe even with a loss today.

A. Vanderbilt:  The Commodores made it three for three over Texas A&M, and they bombed away from the perimeter to bury the Aggies with a second half barrage of threes.  Vandy must now do the same thing to the highly-ranked Florida Gators today to become a safe Bubble team.  A loss would leave the Commodores at 18-15, and that would give VU two negatives.  No 15-loss team has ever received and at-large bid, and almost all at-large teams have won four more games than they have lost.  19-15 improves Vandy’s chances by leaps and bounds over 18-15.

B. Houston: The Cougars still need more than one win to have any chance to make the Field.  They must beat UConn today, and then they will need an upset of Cincinnati tomorrow to even move into serious consideration.  Of course, that means Cinti must win their game against Tulsa.

C. Rhode Island is in the same boat with Houston.  Not only must the Rams take out St. Bonaventure today to have a shot at the Dance, they also must upset Dayton tomorrow and thus need Dayton to beat Davidson to set up that game.

D. TCU will move into the Field with a win over Iowa State today.  Of course, it will be a probationary invitation, because they could then be leapfrogged if a team like Indiana or Alabama should win an automatic bid.

E. Speaking of Indiana, the Hoosiers will become an official Bubbler today if they beat Wisconsin.

F. All four SEC games today have Bubble Implications.  We already told you about Vanderbilt.  Georgia has a chance to make some noise if the Bulldogs can find a way to upset Kentucky.  UGA came close to sweeping the Wildcats in the regular season only to lose two heartbreakers.  If UK wants to win this tournament, they will waltz through with three double-digit wins, but if the players are already thinking about the NBA Draft and don’t want to jeopardize their chances by giving their all and risking injury, then any team left in the field can beat the Wildcats.

G. Ole Miss has 20 wins, and a win today over Arkansas, followed by a possible win tomorrow over Florida (if UF beat Vandy), could move the Rebels into contention for a bid.

H. Alabama is the forgotton team in the SEC Tournament.  The Crimson Tide have the potential to play with any league member when they take smart shots.  Coach Avery Johnson knows how to prepare his team to compete, and it all comes down to FG% for the Tide.  Until somebody beats the Crimson, they cannot be overlooked–even if they are.  If the Tide beats South Carolina today and then gets a semifinal game with Kentucky tomorrow, a win over the Wildcats would have to make ‘Bama a serious contender.

I. The three Mid-Major Players: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, and Texas-Arlington are still alive in the at-large race, but the way the trio is playing, they will really have to lay an egg to lose in their conference tournaments.  MTSU faces the one team that beat them in conference play today, and we expect the Blue Raiders to punish UTEP with a blowout win.

Nevada faces a somewhat tougher task facing Fresno State, and if the men from Reno win, they are no guarantee in the Championship against either Colorado State or San Diego State.  In fact, the way the Aztecs played yesterday, they looked similar to all their past teams that advanced into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  This is possibly the best tournament to watch tonight if you are a basketball junkie from another league.

UT-Arlington is the least likely of the three in this group to get an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament, but they do own the one victory over Saint Mary’s other than the three Gonzaga pinned on the Gaels.  There isn’t a lot to add to their schedule strength, so UTA really needs to win the Sun Belt title.

Friday’s Schedule

Conference Tournament Schedule–All Times Eastern Standard
American Athletic Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 SMU 27-4 vs. 9 East Carolina 15-17 12:00 PM ESPN2
4 Central Florida 20-10 vs. 5 Memphis 19-12 2:00 PM ESPN2
2 Cincinnati 27-4 vs. 7 Tulsa 15-16 7:00 PM ESPNU
3 Houston 21-9 vs. 6 Connecticut 15-16 9:00 PM ESPNU
                 
Atlantic Coast Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 North Carolina 27-6 vs. 5 Duke 25-8 7:00 PM ESPN
2 Florida St. 25-7 vs. 3 Notre Dame 24-8 9:00 PM ESPN
                 
Atlantic 10 Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Dayton 24-6 vs. 9 Davidson 16-14 12:00 PM NBCSN
4 Rhode Island 21-9 vs. 5 St. Bonaventure 20-11 2:30 PM NBCSN
2 VCU 24-7 vs. 7 George Mason 20-12 6:00 PM NBCSN
3 Richmond 19-11 vs. 6 George Washington 19-13 8:30 PM NBCSN
                 
Big 12 Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
8 TCU 19-14 vs. 4 Iowa St. 21-10 7:00 PM ESPN2
2 West Virginia 25-7 vs. 6 Kansas St. 20-12 9:00 PM ESPN2
                 
Big East Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Villanova 29-3 vs. 5 Seton Hall 21-10 6:30 PM FS1
7 Xavier 21-12 vs. 6 Creighton 24-8 9:00 PM FS1
                 
Big Sky Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 North Dakota 20-9 vs. 4 Idaho 18-12 8:35 PM Big Sky
2 Eastern Washington 22-10 vs. 3 Weber St. 18-12 11:05 PM Big Sky
                 
Big Ten Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Purdue 25-6 vs. 8 Michigan 21-11 12:00 PM ESPN
4 Minnesota 23-8 vs. 5 Michigan St. 19-13 2:20 PM ESPN
2 Wisconsin 23-8 vs. 10 Indiana 18-14 6:30 PM BTN
3 Maryland 24-7 vs. 6 Northwestern 22-10 8:50 PM BTN
                 
Big West Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
2 UC-Davis 20-12 vs. 3 Cal St. Fullerton 17-13 9:30 PM ESPN3
1 UC-Irvine 20-13 vs. 4 Long Beach St. 15-18 12:00 AM ESPN3
                 
Conference USA
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Middle Tennessee 28-4 vs. 4 UTEP 15-16 12:30 PM CBSSN
2 Louisiana Tech 23-9 vs. 6 Marshall 19-14 3:00 PM CBSSN
                 
Mid-American Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Akron 25-7 vs. 4 Ball St. 21-11 5:30 PM CBSSN
2 Ohio U 20-10 vs. 6 Kent St. 20-13 8:00 PM CBSSN
                 
Mideastern Athletic Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 UNC-Central 23-8 vs. 5 Md.–Eastern Shore 13-19 6:00 PM ESPN3
2 Norfolk St. 16-15 vs. 11 Howard 10-23 8:00 PM ESPN3
                 
Mountain West Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Nevada 26-6 vs. 4 Fresno St. 20-11 10:00 PM CBSSN
2 Colorado St. 22-10 vs. 6 San Diego St. 20-13 12:30 AM CBSSN
                 
Pac-12 Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Oregon 28-4 vs. 5 California 21-11 9:00 PM P12 Net.
2 Arizona 28-4 vs. 3 UCLA 29-3 11:30 PM ESPN
                 
Southeastern Conference
Seed Team