The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 2, 2019

PiRate Ratings Ready To Go Live

Ahoy Mates!  The PiRates have returned from sea this summer and are ready to hoist the football flag on terra firma for 2019-2020.

It took us a bit longer this year with added data hopefully allowing us to refine our preseason ratings’ process.  After more than 100 days of work, we finally have preseason ratings for the 130 FBS teams.

As we have done every year, we will begin previewing the conferences daily from the lowest rated to the highest rated.  Here is the schedule for each of the previews.

Day Date Conference Preview
Friday Aug 9 Conference USA
Saturday Aug 10 Mid-American
Sunday Aug 11 Sun Belt
Monday Aug 12 Mountain West
Tuesday Aug 13 Independents
Wednesday Aug 14 American Athletic
Thursday Aug 15 Atlantic Coast
Friday Aug 16 Pac-12
Saturday Aug 17 Big 12
Sunday Aug 18 Big Ten
Monday Aug 19 Southeastern

Then, on Tuesday, August 20, we will debut our spreads for games involving FBS teams up through Labor Day.  There will be two FBS games on Saturday, August 24, and then the first real week of the season takes place over the Labor Day Holiday Weekend from August 29 through September 2.

As always, we are constantly updating our preseason ratings throughout August as news becomes available concerning personnel changes.  If you are a fan of the Connecticut Huskies, your team has undergone some serious roster moves since the end of Spring Practice, and you have seen some key personnel decide to transfer.

There are also a handful of players that might be awarded immediate eligibility after transferring to a new FBS school.  One or two teams could see a jump of more than one ratings’ point if certain players receive immediate eligibility. allow schools to trade players if both schools have an immediate need for the other school’s player, while their current school has no immediate availability?

 

Some Fun Stuff To Ponder

What if the NCAA allowed schools to trade players if both schools have an immediate need for the other school’s player, while their current school has no immediate need for said players?

Can you imagine if a school like Ohio State had a third string quarterback that would not see meaningful minutes, while they needed a flanker to replace a 1st round draft pick, and then a school like Washington State had seven capable receivers and no quarterback?  What if Ohio State and Washington State could make a trade so that the third string QB at Ohio State can now become the starter at Washington State, while the number five receiver at Washington State can now become the starting flanker with the Buckeyes?

It might have been crazy to consider this 10 years ago, but who knows what the future might bring with players now winning appeals for immediate eligibility for some of the most outlandish reasons like having a disagreeable dormitory environment.  If both of our imaginary players wanted to transfer but were not graduates with immediate eligibility, might the NCAA see merit in allowing two players that would rarely see the field to become starters at another school?

Thanks to your comments to us from our other website, something has been circulating this summer among many of you concerning what will happen with the FBS Playoffs when the current contract expires. This topic has wings.  There has been appreciable mumbling coming forth from the movers and shakers in the college football world.

The former big-time New Year’s Day bowls (Sugar, Cotton/Fiesta, Rose, and Orange) have seen historic low ratings in the years they were not part of the Semifinals of the Playoffs.  The key bowls this year will be played on Saturday, December 28, and the Cotton and Orange Bowls will not be played on New Year’s Day.

These once major epic festivals are almost like the football equivalent of the NIT, and the bowl sponsors are not happy.  The Tournament of Roses Committee is really not happy with their historically low TV ratings, and it has not just affected the game, but the ratings for the parade have been off as well.  I am sure they’d gladly take the old arrangement of the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions and distance themselves from the Playoffs altogether, like they did when the Bowl Coalition did not include the Rose Bowl conferences.  An undefeated Rose Bowl champion would easily be able to claim a national title without appearing in the playoffs, just like Notre Dame won numerous national titles long before they appeared in bowl games.  The Associated Press has awarded National Championships for years, and the national champion in multiple years did not appear in a bowl game.

When the next Playoff contract commences in 2026, you can bet that there will be more than four teams in the playoffs.  It could be six, eight, 12, or 16.  The major bowls will demand that their game stays vitally important every year.  With six teams, five bowls would be needed, but there are six heavyweights, so one would be left out each year.

With eight teams, seven bowls would be needed, which would satisfy the needs of the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach every year.  The seventh site could rotate among the other bowls, throwing a one-time bone to the Citrus, Outback, Holiday, Sun, Alamo, and one or two additional bowls.

At 12 or 16 teams, first round games could be played on the home field of the higher-seeded teams before progressing to the bowls.  This would most likely signal the end of conference championship games, but you could see where the big-time schools would gladly give up conference championship games for playoff games.

There is one other topic that has been circulating in college football fan talk this summer, and that is the idea of a Super Football Division consisting of the top 32 programs.  As an example, the top 32 football powers could form their own conference and play only against each other with a super TV contract and NFL-style playoffs based on standings and not the vote of a Committee.  The talk is that these 32 programs could make so much money in football, that they could fund all their other sports and sort of secede from the current NCAA Division 1.  What this would lead to would be the end of Alabama playing Western Carolina in November and Michigan State playing Western Michigan in September.  Instead, there would be weekly games like  Alabama versus Oklahoma, and Ohio State versus Clemson.  All these super schools would play in stadiums with 75,000 to 110,000 seats.  The TV contract would be more like the NFL at its peak.  Imagine a 12-team NFL style playoff with the top superpowers of the gridiron?

This has been rumored for about a quarter century.  Originally, this idea was brushed aside when the major conferences began to expand.  The current belief is that if any conference expands again, they will only do so to bring in teams from outside their current conference media markets.  In other words, The Big Ten would not want Iowa State with Iowa already in the league.  They might want Oklahoma or Oklahoma State but not both, because those rivals come from the same media market.

Likewise, the SEC would not want to add Clemson or Florida State, as they already have South Carolina and Florida.  However, they would gladly take Virginia Tech and one of the Oklahoma schools.

The organic progression would seem to indicate that in the future, one of the Power 5 conferences could fold and its teams would merge into one of the other majors, and there would be four, 16-team super conferences.  However, the media market expansion would not work, because there would be multiple teams from some states, like Texas, and not enough super conferences to join.  Therefore, it is our belief that the only logical solution to this matter is for the top 32 football programs to go at it on their own.  The current Division 1 could be altered from FBS and FCS to 1 A, 1 AA, and 1 AAA.  The 1 AAA would be the top 32 teams.  The 1 AA would be the current remaining 98 FBS plus the top 30 FCS programs that could now compete without the 32 powers.  1 AAA would be all the remaining teams, and then some D2 and NAIA schools might wish to move up.

An NFL Fan Sent This To Us

One of our biggest fans at this site (we didn’t receive permission from him to name him), opined that there could be more than one NFL team trying to position themselves to be 0-16 in 2020.  Much like the Indianapolis Colts tanking to “Suck for Luck,”  the new slogan we have given this is: “Be Clever and Suck for Trevor.”  Trevor Lawrence will be draft eligible in April of 2021.

That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a nice group of available quarterbacks in 2020, as Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Ehlinger, Jake Fromm, Justin Herbert, and others will be available.  However, Lawrence might be the best QB prospect since John Elway, so the stakes will be high in 2021, and it is likely that the team with the worst record in 2020 could be playoff bound by 2022 and Super Bowl worthy by 2023 and for the next 15 years after that.  Teams like Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Oakland/Las Vegas, and Arizona could be in position to sell off one or two key players and be in position to lose big in 2020.  A team like Green Bay or New Orleans could decide to blow up their aging rosters and be terrible for one year, but it would be the right one year.

Looking For The Next Tom Brady

As much as the Colts benefited from drafting Andrew Luck, they have run out of it in January.  Meanwhile, the almost forgotten draft pick  at #199 in 2000, the inimitable Tom Brady, must keep remodeling his home to store all the hardware he has accrued.

Is there a potential second or third day draft quarterback from this year’s crop that could be the diamond in the rough like Touchdown Tom?

We think there is, and ironically, he hails from Brady’s alma mater.  Shea Patterson might be available into the 5th round, because this next class of quarterbacks is full of very good but not superior guys.  The quantity might eventually prove to be greater than the quality, but we see Patterson as flying under the radar.  He has all the tools needed to play at the next level, and we believe his best ability is still to emerge.  Patterson plays in an offense that will not allow him the opportunity to throw the ball 400+ times in 12 games, but what he does with the 350 or so passes should show the right NFL team that he is worth making a late second day or early third day pick on him.

October 19, 2015

College Football Preview: October 20-24, 2015

Weekday Bonanza
Other than on Thanksgiving, we are not particularly fans of weekday games in football. However, this week, every weekday game presents an interesting proposition. Take a look at what will be available to you to watch.

Tuesday Night
Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas St.: Consider this week a sort of FInal Four in the Sun Belt Conference, as two teams with undefeated SBC records face off in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The winner is almost guaranteed a bowl bid, while the loser will have to fight to get the fourth bid from the league. Expect a lot of fireworks and a high scoring game.

Thursday Night
Temple at East Carolina: Not only is first place up for grabs in the American Athletic Conference East Division, this game serves as a New Year’s Six Bowl Eliminator for Temple. The Owls own a win at Penn State, and a win in this road game would give Temple a resume equal to Houston, Memphis, and Toledo, the three teams contending with the Owls for that big bowl bid. ECU is tough to beat at home, and the Owl defense will have to be ready to play.

Georgia Southern at Appalachian St.: This is the other “semifinal” game in the Sun Belt this week, and it is the battle of the top two teams in the league. Both teams are undefeated in SBC play and 5-1 overall, and both teams’ coaches are on the radar at big schools. This game will be a nice contrast in playing styles, and we are not sure either defense can stop the other teams’ offense.

California at UCLA: These two teams cannot afford another conference loss and remain in contention for their respective divisions in the Pac-12. UCLA lost in a trainwreck last week in the Bruins’ annual punishment at the hands of Stanford. Cal had a week off after blowing a chance to win at Utah.

Friday Night
Memphis at Tulsa: Can Memphis go on the road and win a tough game less than a week after pulling off their most important victory in over 50 years, if not ever? The Tigers sit on top of the Group of 5 poll today, and it they win out, they will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl at season’s end. There are a couple of big impediments in their way, and this game is one of them. Tulsa is looking at seven or eight wins, so you cannot discount them in this game.

Utah St. at San Diego St.: This might be a preview of the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. After destroying Boise St., the Aggies are in control of the Mountain Division race, and after blasting San Jose St., the Aztecs should cruise to the West Division title. Utah St. has the hot offense, and San Diego St. has the tough defense, so this one should be quite entertaining.

 

Don’t think that you can take Saturday off this week. There are a host of games worth watching, including these:
Clemson at Miami: The Hurricanes did everything but beat Florida State two weeks ago, and an upset in this game might save Al Golden’s job. CU has a clear path to the NCAA Playoffs if they win this game, as the remaining toughies are at home.

Auburn at Arkansas: This could be one of those Bowl Eliminator games, with the loser probably dropping to 5-7 at the end of the year.

Duke at Virginia Tech: If the Blue Devils go to Blacksburg and pull off a win, then the Duke-North Carolina game could be the deciding game for the ACC Coastal Division championship. A Tech loss might be the end of the Hokies’ bowl hopes this year and might seal Frank Beamer’s fate, bringing an announcement that he will retire at the end of this season.

Tennessee at Alabama: This rivlary game might still not be back to where it was for decades, but Tennessee had an extra week to prepare, while ‘Bama had to play at Texas A&M. There are just so many weeks that a team can get up for a big game, so this contest may be a lot closer than people expect. The Tide offense is still mostly one dimensional, but that one dimension, the running game, is close to incredible. Still, if Tennessee does not turn the ball over like A&M, the Vols could still be in contention in the fourth quarter.

Washington St. at Arizona: The Pirate has the Cougars in bowl contention. Coach Mike Leach’s Washington State team is sitting at 4-2 with enough winnable games ahead to go bowling this year. Arizona sits in the same position this week and should find its way to bowl eligibility. This one is for jockeying position with the winner having a leg up on going to a warmer locale in December.

Western Kentucky at LSU: Okay, we are not saying that the Hilltoppers will challenge for an upset in this game, but LSU has had defensive lulls in the middle of every game this year. If the Tigers have that issue in this game, WKU could score 21 to 28 points in a hurry, making Leonard Fournette play all four quarters. LSU needs a couple of breather games to rest Fournette for the upcoming game at Alabama.

Utah at USC: This game has “that look.” Utah is in position to earn a surprise playoff berth, but they have a minefield in front of their way to a possible 13-0 record. USC is struggling to even get to 6-6 after all the issues this team has dealt with this season. This is the Trojans’ first home game since the dismissal of Steve Sarkisian, and teams usually play the best they are going to play in their first home game under an interim coach. The Trojans looked good at Notre Dame, and it figures that they will be ready to give the Utes all they can handle.

 

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Baylor 130.4 127.2 131.5 129.7
2 Alabama 129.2 127.1 129.0 128.4
3 TCU 128.1 119.2 128.6 125.3
4 Ohio St. 126.7 120.9 127.4 125.0
5 Utah 125.8 120.2 125.3 123.8
6 Oklahoma 124.3 120.9 124.2 123.1
7 Stanford 123.5 122.1 123.5 123.0
8 LSU 123.0 119.7 122.9 121.9
9 Notre Dame 123.0 119.7 123.0 121.9
10 USC 120.2 116.7 120.2 119.0
11 Texas A&M 119.8 117.4 118.5 118.6
12 Clemson 117.7 118.5 118.0 118.1
13 Florida 118.8 115.8 119.0 117.9
14 Michigan 119.0 115.7 118.8 117.8
15 Tennessee 119.4 114.7 118.9 117.7
16 North Carolina 117.5 117.9 117.5 117.6
17 Ole Miss 120.3 114.3 117.9 117.5
18 UCLA 120.3 114.0 118.1 117.5
19 Georgia 119.7 112.4 118.5 116.9
20 California 117.8 112.8 117.9 116.2
21 Arkansas 118.2 112.6 117.4 116.1
22 Michigan St. 116.3 112.6 115.9 114.9
23 Florida St. 114.6 115.4 113.8 114.6
24 Arizona St. 116.1 111.1 115.2 114.1
25 Mississippi St. 114.4 110.9 114.5 113.3
26 Oregon 115.6 108.7 114.8 113.0
27 Georgia Tech 114.3 111.6 113.0 113.0
28 Oklahoma St. 113.3 111.4 113.5 112.7
29 Auburn 113.8 111.6 112.8 112.7
30 West Virginia 114.6 109.3 113.9 112.6
31 Iowa 110.6 113.2 111.5 111.8
32 Boise St. 113.0 108.8 112.8 111.5
33 Wisconsin 110.3 110.8 109.8 110.3
34 North Carolina St. 109.9 111.1 108.8 109.9
35 Nebraska 110.8 108.9 110.1 109.9
36 Arizona 111.8 106.1 110.8 109.6
37 Memphis 109.1 109.1 110.3 109.5
38 Duke 108.9 109.7 109.9 109.5
39 Virginia Tech 110.1 108.8 109.7 109.5
40 Louisville 108.6 110.9 108.6 109.4
41 Temple 108.1 110.2 108.8 109.0
42 Missouri 110.3 107.0 109.5 108.9
43 Western Kentucky 107.7 108.0 109.7 108.5
44 Miami 107.9 108.5 108.7 108.4
45 Pittsburgh 107.3 108.2 108.5 108.0
46 Houston 104.3 112.0 107.0 107.8
47 Washington 107.4 104.8 108.0 106.7
48 Texas 107.3 104.9 107.2 106.5
49 Texas Tech 109.0 100.2 108.8 106.0
50 BYU 105.7 104.9 106.6 105.7
51 Illinois 106.7 104.5 105.6 105.6
52 Toledo 104.2 105.0 105.9 105.0
53 South Carolina 106.8 103.1 104.9 104.9
54 Penn St. 104.2 105.5 104.4 104.7
55 Kentucky 105.9 102.5 105.0 104.5
56 Utah St. 104.1 104.1 104.6 104.3
57 Bowling Green 101.7 106.5 104.2 104.1
58 Cincinnati 103.7 103.7 104.7 104.0
59 Minnesota 104.1 102.6 103.2 103.3
60 Northwestern 103.0 103.2 102.4 102.9
61 Kansas St. 106.3 95.7 105.7 102.6
62 Appalachian St. 100.8 103.9 102.8 102.5
63 Colorado 104.4 99.1 102.8 102.1
64 Navy 100.3 103.4 101.1 101.6
65 Washington St. 102.7 98.4 102.0 101.0
66 Boston College 100.2 104.3 98.5 101.0
67 Western Michigan 99.7 99.8 101.1 100.2
68 San Diego St. 98.0 103.0 99.4 100.1
69 Louisiana Tech 99.8 97.8 100.0 99.2
70 Vanderbilt 101.0 95.9 100.5 99.1
71 Virginia 99.7 97.2 98.8 98.6
72 East Carolina 96.4 100.0 97.4 97.9
73 Georgia Southern 96.5 98.9 97.5 97.6
74 Rutgers 98.6 95.9 97.2 97.2
75 Purdue 97.9 97.2 96.4 97.2
76 Northern Illinois 95.1 98.5 95.9 96.5
77 Marshall 95.8 96.9 96.6 96.4
78 Indiana 96.3 96.8 95.7 96.3
79 Wake Forest 94.9 98.6 94.0 95.8
80 Middle Tennessee 95.7 94.8 95.4 95.3
81 Syracuse 93.7 96.8 92.9 94.5
82 South Florida 91.5 98.1 92.2 93.9
83 Air Force 92.4 96.0 91.5 93.3
84 Iowa St. 94.9 90.7 94.0 93.2
85 Colorado St. 93.9 92.1 92.6 92.9
86 Central Michigan 90.6 94.8 93.1 92.8
87 Maryland 94.1 91.3 93.0 92.8
88 Tulsa 90.4 95.2 91.3 92.3
89 Florida International 91.1 93.4 92.5 92.3
90 San Jose St. 91.0 94.0 90.8 91.9
91 Ohio 89.6 93.7 91.2 91.5
92 Southern Mississippi 90.1 91.3 90.4 90.6
93 Arkansas St. 89.0 89.6 90.1 89.6
94 Nevada 88.5 92.2 87.8 89.5
95 Oregon St. 91.0 87.8 89.0 89.3
96 New Mexico 88.5 89.2 87.3 88.3
97 Connecticut 85.9 91.4 86.6 88.0
98 Hawaii 87.2 89.4 87.2 87.9
99 Massachusetts 85.8 88.9 86.9 87.2
100 SMU 85.1 89.0 85.1 86.4
101 Central Florida 84.6 88.0 85.3 86.0
102 Akron 83.3 89.6 84.7 85.9
103 Tulane 85.2 87.6 83.9 85.6
104 Rice 83.9 87.8 84.4 85.4
105 UL-Lafayette 83.9 87.7 84.5 85.4
106 Kent St. 83.3 85.8 84.1 84.4
107 UNLV 82.7 85.3 83.4 83.8
108 Buffalo 80.6 87.4 82.8 83.6
109 Fresno St. 82.1 86.2 80.7 83.0
110 Florida Atlantic 81.1 84.4 81.1 82.2
111 Ball St. 81.4 83.2 81.6 82.1
112 UT-San Antonio 80.6 83.0 81.6 81.7
113 Army 77.6 87.1 79.1 81.3
114 Texas St. 79.9 83.4 79.0 80.8
115 Wyoming 80.1 82.8 79.3 80.7
116 South Alabama 75.7 82.1 77.1 78.3
117 Old Dominion 76.2 81.4 74.9 77.5
118 UL-Monroe 78.2 76.2 78.0 77.5
119 Georgia St. 76.8 76.4 77.0 76.7
120 UTEP 75.7 78.1 75.3 76.4
121 Kansas 78.1 71.4 76.1 75.2
122 Eastern Michigan 72.6 80.1 72.0 74.9
123 Troy 73.9 75.3 75.4 74.9
124 Idaho 72.0 78.5 73.6 74.7
125 Miami (O) 72.7 77.1 72.5 74.1
126 New Mexico St. 73.6 74.6 73.6 73.9
127 North Texas 72.1 77.0 71.8 73.6
128 Charlotte 69.5 72.1 69.6 70.4

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Utah
5 Baylor
6 LSU
7 Oklahoma
8 Clemson
9 Florida St.
10 Michigan St.
11 Iowa
12 Michigan
13 Stanford
14 Florida
15 Notre Dame
16 California
17 Memphis
18 Oklahoma St.
19 Toledo
20 Houston
21 Mississippi St.
22 Texas A&M
23 BYU
24 Duke
25 Pittsburgh
26 North Carolina
27 Ole Miss
28 Temple
29 UCLA
30 Navy
31 Wisconsin
32 Utah St.
33 Georgia
34 Northwestern
35 Texas Tech
36 Boise St.
37 Tennessee
38 USC
39 Western Kentucky
40 Auburn
41 Oregon
42 Miami (FL)
43 Bowling Green
44 West Virginia
45 Appalachian St.
46 Illinois
47 Penn St.
48 Texas
49 Marshall
50 Georgia Southern
51 Arizona St.
52 Arizona
53 Washington
54 East Carolina
55 Nebraska
56 Washington St.
57 Kentucky
58 Arkansas
59 Kansas St.
60 Missouri
61 North Carolina St.
62 Western Michigan
63 South Carolina
64 Louisville
65 Northern Illinois
66 Rutgers
67 Central Michigan
68 South Florida
69 Cincinnati
70 Louisiana Tech
71 San Diego St.
72 Virginia Tech
73 Georgia Tech
74 Indiana
75 Minnesota
76 Boston College
77 Iowa St.
78 Virginia
79 Ohio U
80 Arkansas St.
81 Southern Miss.
82 Syracuse
83 Air Force
84 Maryland
85 Tulsa
86 Colorado St.
87 Vanderbilt
88 Wake Forest
89 Rice
90 Middle Tennessee
91 Kent St.
92 Oregon St.
93 Colorado
94 Connecticut
95 San Jose St.
96 Akron
97 New Mexico
98 South Alabama
99 Old Dominion
100 Purdue
101 UNLV
102 Louisiana-Lafayette
103 SMU
104 Florida Int’l.
105 Ball St.
106 Army
107 Buffalo
108 Nevada
109 Idaho
110 Tulane
111 Hawaii
112 Massachusetts
113 Fresno St.
114 Idaho
115 Louisiana-Monroe
116 Kansas
117 Georgia St.
118 Wyoming
119 UT-San Antonio
120 Texas St.
121 Central Florida
122 Troy
123 Miami (O)
124 Eastern Michigan
125 UTEP
126 Charlotte
127 North Texas
128 New Mexico St.

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 3-0 6-0 108.1 110.2 108.8 109.0
Cincinnati 0-2 3-3 103.7 103.7 104.7 104.0
East Carolina 2-1 4-3 96.4 100.0 97.4 97.9
South Florida 1-1 3-3 91.5 98.1 92.2 93.9
Connecticut 1-2 3-4 85.9 91.4 86.6 88.0
Central Florida 0-3 0-7 84.6 88.0 85.3 86.0
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-0 6-0 109.1 109.1 110.3 109.5
Houston 3-0 6-0 104.3 112.0 107.0 107.8
Navy 2-0 4-1 100.3 103.4 101.1 101.6
Tulsa 0-2 3-3 90.4 95.2 91.3 92.3
SMU 0-2 1-5 85.1 89.0 85.1 86.4
Tulane 1-2 2-4 85.2 87.6 83.9 85.6
             
AAC Averages     95.4 99.0 96.1 96.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 3-0 6-0 117.7 118.5 118.0 118.1
Florida St. 4-0 6-0 114.6 115.4 113.8 114.6
North Carolina St. 0-2 4-2 109.9 111.1 108.8 109.9
Louisville 1-2 2-4 108.6 110.9 108.6 109.4
Boston College 0-4 3-4 100.2 104.3 98.5 101.0
Wake Forest 1-3 3-4 94.9 98.6 94.0 95.8
Syracuse 1-1 3-3 93.7 96.8 92.9 94.5
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 2-0 5-1 117.5 117.9 117.5 117.6
Georgia Tech 0-4 2-5 114.3 111.6 113.0 113.0
Duke 2-0 5-1 108.9 109.7 109.9 109.5
Virginia Tech 1-2 3-4 110.1 108.8 109.7 109.5
Miami 1-1 4-2 107.9 108.5 108.7 108.4
Pittsburgh 3-0 5-1 107.3 108.2 108.5 108.0
Virginia 1-1 2-4 99.7 97.2 98.8 98.6
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.4 107.2 107.7
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 3-0 6-0 130.4 127.2 131.5 129.7
TCU 4-0 7-0 128.1 119.2 128.6 125.3
Oklahoma 2-1 5-1 124.3 120.9 124.2 123.1
Oklahoma St. 3-0 6-0 113.3 111.4 113.5 112.7
West Virginia 0-3 3-3 114.6 109.3 113.9 112.6
Texas 1-2 2-4 107.3 104.9 107.2 106.5
Texas Tech 2-2 5-2 109.0 100.2 108.8 106.0
Kansas St. 0-3 3-3 106.3 95.7 105.7 102.6
Iowa St. 1-2 2-4 94.9 90.7 94.0 93.2
Kansas 0-3 0-6 78.1 71.4 76.1 75.2
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 3-0 7-0 126.7 120.9 127.4 125.0
Michigan 2-1 5-2 119.0 115.7 118.8 117.8
Michigan St. 3-0 7-0 116.3 112.6 115.9 114.9
Penn St. 2-1 5-2 104.2 105.5 104.4 104.7
Rutgers 1-2 3-3 98.6 95.9 97.2 97.2
Indiana 0-3 4-3 96.3 96.8 95.7 96.3
Maryland 0-2 2-4 94.1 91.3 93.0 92.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 3-0 7-0 110.6 113.2 111.5 111.8
Wisconsin 2-1 5-2 110.3 110.8 109.8 110.3
Nebraska 1-2 3-4 110.8 108.9 110.1 109.9
Illinois 1-1 4-2 106.7 104.5 105.6 105.6
Minnesota 1-2 4-3 104.1 102.6 103.2 103.3
Northwestern 1-2 5-2 103.0 103.2 102.4 102.9
Purdue 0-3 1-6 97.9 97.2 96.4 97.2
             
Big Ten Averages     107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 4-0 6-1 107.7 108.0 109.7 108.5
Marshall 3-0 6-1 95.8 96.9 96.6 96.4
Middle Tennessee 2-1 3-4 95.7 94.8 95.4 95.3
Florida International 1-2 3-4 91.1 93.4 92.5 92.3
Florida Atlantic 1-2 1-5 81.1 84.4 81.1 82.2
Old Dominion 1-1 3-3 76.2 81.4 74.9 77.5
Charlotte 0-3 2-4 69.5 72.1 69.6 70.4
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 2-1 4-3 99.8 97.8 100.0 99.2
Southern Mississippi 2-1 4-3 90.1 91.3 90.4 90.6
Rice 2-1 3-3 83.9 87.8 84.4 85.4
UT-San Antonio 1-2 1-6 80.6 83.0 81.6 81.7
UTEP 0-2 2-4 75.7 78.1 75.3 76.4
North Texas 0-3 0-6 72.1 77.0 71.8 73.6
             
CUSA Averages     86.1 88.2 86.4 86.9
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 123.0 119.7 123.0 121.9
BYU   5-2 105.7 104.9 106.6 105.7
Army   2-5 77.6 87.1 79.1 81.3
             
Independents Averages     102.1 103.9 102.9 103.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 3-0 5-2 101.7 106.5 104.2 104.1
Ohio 2-1 5-2 89.6 93.7 91.2 91.5
Massachusetts 0-2 1-5 85.8 88.9 86.9 87.2
Akron 1-2 3-4 83.3 89.6 84.7 85.9
Kent St. 2-1 3-4 83.3 85.8 84.1 84.4
Buffalo 0-2 2-4 80.6 87.4 82.8 83.6
Miami (O) 0-3 1-6 72.7 77.1 72.5 74.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 3-0 6-0 104.2 105.0 105.9 105.0
Western Michigan 2-0 3-3 99.7 99.8 101.1 100.2
Northern Illinois 2-1 4-3 95.1 98.5 95.9 96.5
Central Michigan 2-1 3-4 90.6 94.8 93.1 92.8
Ball St. 1-2 2-5 81.4 83.2 81.6 82.1
Eastern Michigan 0-3 1-6 72.6 80.1 72.0 74.9
             
MAC Averages     87.7 91.6 88.9 89.4
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 2-1 5-2 113.0 108.8 112.8 111.5
Utah St. 3-0 4-2 104.1 104.1 104.6 104.3
Air Force 2-1 3-3 92.4 96.0 91.5 93.3
Colorado St. 1-2 3-4 93.9 92.1 92.6 92.9
New Mexico 2-1 4-3 88.5 89.2 87.3 88.3
Wyoming 1-2 1-6 80.1 82.8 79.3 80.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 3-0 4-3 98.0 103.0 99.4 100.1
San Jose St. 2-2 3-4 91.0 94.0 90.8 91.9
Nevada 1-2 3-4 88.5 92.2 87.8 89.5
Hawaii 0-3 2-5 87.2 89.4 87.2 87.9
UNLV 1-2 2-5 82.7 85.3 83.4 83.8
Fresno St. 1-3 2-5 82.1 86.2 80.7 83.0
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.5 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 4-0 5-1 123.5 122.1 123.5 123.0
California 2-1 5-1 117.8 112.8 117.9 116.2
Oregon 2-2 4-3 115.6 108.7 114.8 113.0
Washington 1-2 3-3 107.4 104.8 108.0 106.7
Washington St. 2-1 4-2 102.7 98.4 102.0 101.0
Oregon St. 0-3 2-4 91.0 87.8 89.0 89.3
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Utah 3-0 6-0 125.8 120.2 125.3 123.8
USC 1-2 3-3 120.2 116.7 120.2 119.0
UCLA 1-2 4-2 120.3 114.0 118.1 117.5
Arizona St. 2-2 4-3 116.1 111.1 115.2 114.1
Arizona 2-2 5-2 111.8 106.1 110.8 109.6
Colorado 0-3 3-4 104.4 99.1 102.8 102.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 4-1 6-1 118.8 115.8 119.0 117.9
Tennessee 1-2 3-3 119.4 114.7 118.9 117.7
Georgia 3-2 5-2 119.7 112.4 118.5 116.9
Missouri 1-3 4-3 110.3 107.0 109.5 108.9
South Carolina 1-4 3-4 106.8 103.1 104.9 104.9
Kentucky 2-2 4-2 105.9 102.5 105.0 104.5
Vanderbilt 0-3 2-4 101.0 95.9 100.5 99.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 3-1 6-1 129.2 127.1 129.0 128.4
LSU 4-0 6-0 123.0 119.7 122.9 121.9
Texas A&M 2-1 5-1 119.8 117.4 118.5 118.6
Ole Miss 2-1 5-2 120.3 114.3 117.9 117.5
Arkansas 1-2 2-4 118.2 112.6 117.4 116.1
Mississippi St. 1-2 5-2 114.4 110.9 114.5 113.3
Auburn 1-2 4-2 113.8 111.6 112.8 112.7
             
SEC Averages     115.8 111.8 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 2-0 5-1 100.8 103.9 102.8 102.5
Georgia Southern 3-0 5-1 96.5 98.9 97.5 97.6
Arkansas St. 2-0 3-3 89.0 89.6 90.1 89.6
UL-Lafayette 1-0 2-3 83.9 87.7 84.5 85.4
Texas St. 0-1 1-4 79.9 83.4 79.0 80.8
South Alabama 1-1 3-3 75.7 82.1 77.1 78.3
UL-Monroe 0-2 1-5 78.2 76.2 78.0 77.5
Georgia St. 1-1 2-4 76.8 76.4 77.0 76.7
Troy 0-2 1-5 73.9 75.3 75.4 74.9
Idaho 1-2 2-4 72.0 78.5 73.6 74.7
New Mexico St. 0-2 0-6 73.6 74.6 73.6 73.9
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.8 84.2 82.6 82.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.8 111.8 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
4 ACC 107.5 108.4 107.2 107.7
5 Big Ten 107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 102.1 103.9 102.9 103.0
7 AAC 95.4 99.0 96.1 96.8
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.5 92.3
9 MAC 87.7 91.6 88.9 89.4
10 CUSA 86.1 88.2 86.4 86.9
11 SBC 81.8 84.2 82.6 82.9

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 LSU
3 Utah
4 Clemson

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Memphis      
2 Houston      
3 Toledo      
4 Temple      
5 Navy

 

Power 5 Bottom 10

# Team
10 Virginia
9 Rutgers
8 Purdue
7 Indiana
6 Wake Forest
5 Syracuse
4 Iowa St.
3 Maryland
2 Oregon St.
1 Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.8
2 Harvard 94.9
3 Coastal Carolina 91.7
4 Dartmouth 91.6
5 North Dakota St. 91.3
6 South Dakota St. 91.3
7 James Madison 90.2
8 Illinois St. 90.0
9 McNeese St. 89.4
10 Portland St. 88.9

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, October 20        
Arkansas St. Louisiana-Lafayette 7.6 4.4 8.1
         
Thursday, October 22        
East Carolina Temple -8.7 -7.2 -8.4
Appalachian St. Georgia Southern 6.8 7.5 7.8
UCLA California 5.5 4.2 3.2
         
Friday, October 23        
Tulsa Memphis -15.7 -10.9 -16.0
San Diego St. Utah St. -3.1 1.9 -2.2
         
Saturday, October 24        
Miami (Fla) Clemson -6.8 -7.0 -6.3
Arkansas Auburn 7.4 4.0 7.6
Wake Forest North Carolina St. -13.0 -10.5 -12.8
Syracuse Pittsburgh -10.6 -8.4 -12.6
Texas Kansas St. 4.0 12.2 4.5
Rice Army 9.3 3.7 8.3
Baylor Iowa St. 38.5 39.5 40.5
Nebraska Northwestern 10.8 8.7 10.7
Charlotte Southern Miss. -18.1 -16.7 -18.3
Central Florida Houston -17.2 -21.5 -19.2
Louisville Boston College 11.4 9.6 13.1
Navy Tulane 18.1 18.8 20.2
Kent St. Bowling Green -16.4 -18.7 -18.1
Air Force Fresno St. 13.3 12.8 13.8
Western Michigan Miami (O) 29.5 25.2 31.1
Massachusetts Toledo -15.4 -13.1 -16.0
Ball St. Central Michigan -6.7 -9.1 -9.0
Buffalo Ohio U -6.0 -3.3 -5.4
Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan 25.5 21.4 26.9
Louisiana Tech Middle Tennessee 7.1 6.0 7.6
Marshall North Texas 26.7 22.9 27.8
Oklahoma Texas Tech 18.3 23.7 18.4
Oklahoma St. Kansas 38.2 43.0 40.4
Illinois Wisconsin -0.6 -3.3 -1.2
Maryland Penn St. -7.6 -11.7 -8.9
Michigan St. Indiana 23.0 18.8 23.2
Georgia Tech Florida St. 2.7 -0.8 2.2
Virginia Tech Duke 4.2 2.1 2.8
Alabama Tennessee 12.8 15.4 13.1
North Carolina Virginia 20.8 23.7 21.7
Arizona Washington St. 12.1 10.7 11.8
Vanderbilt Missouri -7.3 -9.1 -7.0
South Florida SMU 9.4 12.1 10.1
Nevada Hawaii 5.3 6.8 4.6
Cincinnati Connecticut 20.8 15.3 21.1
Idaho Louisiana-Monroe -3.2 5.3 -1.4
Florida Int’l. Old Dominion 17.9 15.0 20.6
UTEP Florida Atlantic -2.9 -3.8 -3.3
Ole Miss Texas A&M 3.5 -0.1 2.4
LSU Western Kentucky 18.3 14.7 16.2
Texas St. South Alabama 6.7 3.8 4.4
San Jose St. New Mexico 5.5 7.8 6.5
Mississippi St. Kentucky 11.5 11.4 12.5
USC Utah -2.6 -0.5 -2.1
Rutgers Ohio St. -25.1 -22.0 -27.2
New Mexico St. Troy 2.2 1.8 0.7
Boise St. Wyoming 35.9 29.0 36.5
Oregon St. Colorado -10.4 -8.3 -10.8
Stanford Washington 19.1 20.3 18.5
         
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 8 PiRate    
BYU Wagner 51    

 

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Temple vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Jose St. vs. Florida Int’l.
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Washington St. vs. Utah St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Marshall
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC South Florida vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia MWC Army San Diego St. vs. USC *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Western Kentucky vs. Toledo
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. BYU
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA East Carolina vs. Southern Miss.
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. UCLA
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Texas vs. Rice
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Rutgers
Independence SEC ACC Kentucky vs. Miami (Fl)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Oregon
Military ACC AAC Virginia Tech vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College vs. Indiana
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Louisiana-Lafayette * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Colorado St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Mississippi St.
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Michigan St.
Cotton Playoff Playoff Baylor vs. Florida St.
Orange Playoff Playoff Ohio St. vs. Alabama
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Arizona St.
Ouback Big Ten SEC Michigan vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Florida
Sugar Big 12 SEC LSU vs. TCU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Stanford vs. Iowa
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Utah vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Illinois vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. California
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Ohio St. vs. Baylor
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

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