2012 Conference USA Preview

Conference USA placed two teams in the Final Poll last year; Houston finished number 18, and Southern Mississippi came in at number 20.  Tulsa and SMU were not far from cracking the poll as well.  Just when this league appears ready to break out and become the top non-BCS conference, the weakest BCS league pirated four teams.  CUSA stays the same for one more season, but the league will lose four teams to the Big East in 2013 and pick up four new members.  The four departing teams will be Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, and SMU.  Joining the league next year will be Florida International, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, and UT-San Antonio.

 

The league will be down some this year with the loss of some great talents, especially at quarterback.  Gone are Houston’s Case Keenum, Tulsa’s G. J. Kinne, Southern Mississippi’s Austin Davis, East Carolina’s Dominique Davis, SMU’s J. J. McDermott, and Rice’s Nick Fanuzzi.  Five of the top seven receivers (three of them from Houston) are missing.

 

The Conference races should be more wide open this year.  In the East, the team picked to win the division by the media, as well as both the PiRate and PiRate Vintage Ratings, may be ineligible for the Conference USA Championship Game.  Central Florida was placed on a one year bowl ban in football, as well as additional punitive actions for the football and basketball program, but the school is appealing the ruling.  Chances are high that the Knights will be finished playing in November.

 

The league media poll and our two polls are almost exactly the same, something that has rarely occurred at the PiRate Ratings.

 

Media Poll

	CUSA East	Votes
Rank	Team	1st Place	Total
1	Central Florida	13	85
2	Southern Miss.	2	70
3	Marshall	0	58
4	East Carolina	0	56
5	U A B	0	29
6	Memphis	0	17
	CUSA West	Votes
Rank	Team	1st Place	Total
1	Houston	8	81
2	Tulsa	4	73
3	S M U	3	67
4	U T E P	0	39
5	Rice	0	35
6	Tulane	0	20

 

 

PiRate Ratings
Rank	CUSA East	PiRate
1	Central Florida	100.5
2	Southern Miss.	98.3
3	Marshall	94.3
4	East Carolina	93.6
5	U A B	81.9
6	Memphis	75.7
Rank	CUSA West	PiRate
1	Houston	105.9
2	Tulsa	104.9
3	S M U	97.9
4	U T E P	90.2
5	Rice	89.0
6	Tulane	79.9

 

 

	Vintage Ratings
Rank	CUSA East	Vintage
1	Central Florida	102
2	Southern Miss.	98
3	Marshall	96
4	East Carolina	95
5	U A B	91
6	Memphis	84
	Vintage Ratings
Rank	CUSA West	Vintage
1	Tulsa	105
2	S M U	103
3	Houston	100
4	U T E P	93
5	Tulane	89
6	Rice	86

 

 

Team	U A B  Blazers
Head Coach	Garrick McGee
Colors	Green and Gold
City	Birmingham, AL
2011 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	3-9
PiRate Rating	81.9
National Rating	111
Vintage Rating	91
National Rating	98
2012 Prediction
Conference	2-2
Overall	4-8

 

Neil Callaway’s five year record of 18-42 did not cut it in Birmingham, especially when Alabama and Auburn topped 18 wins in the last two years.  Garrick McGee takes over after running the offense at Arkansas.

 

The Blazers’ offense came alive in November last year, as UAB scored 41 points on Memphis, 34 points in an upset of Southern Miss, and 35 points on Florida Atlantic.  Quarterback Jonathan Perry started eight games and completed 58% of his passes for 2,042 yards and 10 touchdowns.  If he stays healthy, Perry should pass for more than 3,000 yards this year.

 

Perry benefits from having an experienced group of receivers returning.  The top seven pass catchers are back again this season.  Jackie Williams is a fine possession receiver, while Nick Adams, Patrick Hearn, and Jamarcus Nelson can turn a short pass into a long gain.

 

Greg Franklin is the returning starter at running back, but he will be pressed hard by former highly-rated recruit and Georgia transfer Dontavius Jackson.  McGee also plans to play Darrin Reaves and Bashr Coles.

 

The offensive line is the biggest liability on the offensive side of the ball.  Four starters must be replaced.  The lone returnee, tackle Chris Hubbard, was an honorable mention All-CUSA pick last year, but there isn’t enough talent here to make the offensive explosive enough to move UAB in to the upper half of the East standings.

 

The UAB defense gave up almost 37 points per game last year and close to 490 yards per game.  Oddly, their best defensive effort came against SEC foe Mississippi State.  With a tougher schedule that includes games at South Carolina and Ohio State, as well as conference games at Southern Miss and Houston and a home game against Tulsa, the Blazers could actually take another step back this year.  

 

The only bright spot on this side of the ball is at linebacker.  Marvin Burdette and Greg Irvin made a lot of tackles, some of them as the last defender before the opposing player broke loose for a long gain.

 

The front four is not strong enough to stop the run or rush the passer with any success.  UAB registered an anemic eight sacks last year; end Diaheem Watkins led with just 1 ½ sacks.

 

The secondary doesn’t have much chance to shine when opposing quarterbacks can read War and Peace before they throw the ball and still not worry about getting hurt.  Safety Jamie Bender made way too many tackles last year (119), and he has moved on.  No starters return to this unit, so opposing quarterbacks will have excellent dreams the night before they face UAB.

 

The good news in Birmingham is that UAB faces Troy, Memphis, Tulane, and Southeast Louisiana. As weak as the Blazers are, they can win these four games, and even if they lose one, they could pull off an unbelievable upset like they did last year when they defeated Southern Miss as a 23-point ‘dog.

 

 

Team	Central Florida Knights
Head Coach	George O’Leary
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Orlando, FL
2011 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	100.5
National Rating	59
Vintage Rating	102
National Rating	58
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

The Knights could finish first in the East this year, but it appears they will be prevented from playing in the conference title game or going to a bowl game.  Too bad for Coach George O’Leary: He has 16 starters returning from a team that should have won seven or eight games last year and could have won as many as 11.  UCF finished 5-7 despite outgaining opponents by more than 100 yards per game and outscoring opponents by nine points per game.  In their five wins, they outscored their opponents by an average score of 36-5.

 

Blake Bortles takes over starting quarterback duties full time this year.  As a part-timer last season, he completed 68% of his passes and averaged 8.7 yards per attempt.  Tyler Gabbert was not happy at Missouri, where his older brother Blaine was a star.  He transferred to Orlando and will back up Bortles.

 

Dropped passes have been a bugaboo for the receiving corps, but J. J. Worton, Quincy McDuffie, and Josh Reese still combined for 114 receptions, 1,474 yards, and seven touchdowns.

 

Brynn Harvey and Latavius Murray teamed for 1,123 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, but they will take a backseat to Miami transfer Storm Johnson.  Johnson has 1,000-yard potential.

 

The offensive line returns four starters.  Center Jordan Rae, guard Theo Goins, and tackle Phil Smith are good enough to make one of the all-conference teams.

 

The defense features three talented units.  The front seven is the best in the league this year.  Troy Davis is one of the top ends in the league.  In 2011, he made 8 ½ stops for loss, including five sacks.  Former tackle Victor Gray has moved to end, and he has all-league potential.

 

Linebackers Jonathan Davis and Troy Gray teamed up for 74 tackles.  Sophomore Terrance Plummer takes over at the vacant middle linebacker spot.

 

The secondary will benefit from a good pass rush up front.  Three starters return to the back line including a fine pair of safeties in Kemal Ishmael and Clayton Geathers.  The duo finished one-two in tackles with 81 and 67 respectively.  UCF needs to have more of a ball-hawking presence.  Cornerback A. J. Bouye is the only returning player that had more than one interception last year.

 

UCF could finish first in the East standings, but the Knights’ final year in this conference will see them home for the holidays.

 

 

Team	East Carolina Pirates
Head Coach	Ruffin McNeill
Colors	Purple and Gold
City	Greenville, NC
2011 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	93.6
National Rating	80
Vintage Rating	95
National Rating	83
2012 Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

Usually when a team improves defensively by 12 points and 100 yards per game, their record improves by three or four wins.  East Carolina actually won one less game.

 

Third year coach Ruffin McNeill welcomes back 15 starters, but one of the seven missing is quarterback Dominique Davis, who passed for 3,225 yards and 25 touchdowns.

 

A number one quarterback has yet to be named, but junior Rio Johnson has had the best scrimmage results so far.  Johnson saw limited action last year, completing 20 of 29 passes for 157 yards.  Cody Keith is the future here, but he is likely to see no action this season.  Shane Carden and Brad Warnick are competing with Johnson.

 

Whoever starts under center should immediately produce fat passing numbers thanks to a talented and deep pool of receivers.  As a freshman last year, Justin Hardy led the team with 64 receptions.  Fellow freshman Danny Webster grabbed 43 passes.  This now sophomore duo should combine for 125 receptions this season.  Reese Wiggins is the one real deep threat.

 

McNeill’s Air Raid (Mike Leach-style) offense actually passes the ball less than 60% of the time.  Last year, the running game let him down, as ECU rushed for just 109.1 yards per game and averaged 3.3 yards per try.  Four backs return this year, but one should emerge as a possible 1,000-yard rusher.  Reggie Bullock was on pace to approach 1,000 yards rushing before he was injured midway through the year and saw limited carries from then on.  Hunter Farr transferred from North Carolina, and he has all the tools needed to be a big time contributor.

 

Four starters and three key backups return to the offensive line, and the Pirates should see their offensive numbers improve this year, even with a new quarterback.  Look for ECU to score more than 30 points this season.

 

The defense gave up 32 points per game after yielding an incredible 44 points per game in the 2010 bowl season.  The strength of the 3-4 scheme is at linebacker, where all four 2011 starters return.  Jeremy Grove led ECU with 122 tackles.  Fellow inside backer Daniel Drake added 74 tackles.

 

Michael Brooks held his own at nose guard, and his play allowed the two inside linebackers to roam freely to the ball.  ECU is a little thin at end, and the Pirates need a better pass rusher to emerge.

 

The secondary has to holes to plug as three starters have used up their eligibility.  Safety Damon Magazu intercepted four passes last year and finished second on the team with 80 tackles.  At cornerback, Leonard Paulk and Jacobi Jenkins have considerable experience as backups and limited starting experience, but McNeill feels comfortable with these two seniors.

 

One player that will sorely be missed is placekicker Mike Barbour.  The Pirates were in field goal position when they got to the opponents 40 yard line.

 

McNeill is on the hot seat.  While his teams have been exciting to watch, they have not built upon what former coach Skip Holtz left.  ECU must win seven or more games this year or else his Air Raid offense will have to fly to another destination.

 

 

Team	Marshall Thundering Herd
Head Coach	Doc Holliday
Colors	Green and White
City	Huntington, WV
2011 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-6
PiRate Rating	94.3
National Rating	78
Vintage Rating	96
National Rating	81
2012 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7

 

Marshall fans are anxious for a return to the good ole days of the 1990’s and early 2000’s.  The Thundering Herd has a cumulative record of 35-50 in the last seven years.  Third year coach Doc Holliday guided Marshall to a bowl win last year, but the Herd came up one game short in the conference race.

 

MU has a better team this year, but their schedule is still the toughest in the division.  The Herd must face Tulsa and Houston from the West.  Their third Western foe is Rice, and that game is played in Houston this year.

 

Holliday faces some rebuilding on the defensive side of the ball.  The secondary loses its top player from last year; Rashad Jackson intercepted four passes and broke up nine others.  Two transfers from Boston College, Dominick LeGrande and Okechukwu Okoroha, both started six games with the Eagles, and they make this unit deep.  However, nobody on this roster can replace Jackson.

 

It will be even more difficult to replace second round draft pick Vinny Curry.  The end finished second in the league with 11 sacks and 22 total tackles for loss.  Jeremiah Taylor has all-league potential, but he will not record 11 sacks.

 

The second line of defense actually has the most rebuilding to do as two of last year’s three starters must be replaced.  Devin Arrington is a better pass defender than run stopper.

 

The schedule starts with the short trip to Morgantown to face West Virginia.  A home game with Ohio and road game at Purdue makes it difficult for MU to become bowl eligible this year.

 

 

Team	Memphis Tigers
Head Coach	Justin Fuente
Colors	Blue and Gray
City	Memphis, TN
2011 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10
PiRate Rating	75.7
National Rating	118
Vintage Rating	84
National Rating	114
2012 Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	4-8

 

The Tigers have been uncompetitive the last three seasons, and they bring in their third head coach in four seasons.  The new man, Justin Fuente, comes from TCU, where he helped guide the offense.  This program could hire Nick Saban to run the defense and Chip Kelly to run the offense, but if the school does not devote more resources to the program, it isn’t going to move out of the basement.

 

The Tigers start over on offense with a new plan after finishing dead last in the league in rushing offense, passing offense, and scoring offense.  The two quarterbacks scheduled to return from 2011 both transferred, and Fuente brought in Texas Tech transfer Jacob Karam to run the offense.  Karam rarely saw the field in two seasons in Lubbock, appearing in limited action in five games.  Still, he should be considered an upgrade at this position.

 

Karam does not inherit a good situation, as UM has limited talent at receiver.  Kevin Wright figures to be the primary receiver this year, and he could see his total catches double from the 36 he had last year.

 

The passing game might be more efficient if the running game could get going.  If Jerrell Rhodes can stay healthy, he has the potential to help the UM ground game get above triple digit in yardage per game for the first time in three years.

 

The offensive line will not produce any all-conference players, but the 2012 version will be better than its 2011 counterpart.  Five players have multiple-game starting experience, and they should help the Tigers improve their rushing and passing numbers.  UM may actually move up to number 11.

 

In a league where seven teams surrendered more than 30 points per game, Memphis was not too far behind on this side of the ball.  In fact, the Tigers finished ahead of UAB and Tulane in scoring defense.

 

Pass defense has the potential to be greatly improved if a credible pass rush can develop up front.  The Tigers only produced 14 sacks last year, so replacing most of the key pass rushers should not be as harmful as it could have been.  Memphis actually produced a first round NFL draft pick from its interior line.  End Dontari Poe finished with eight tackles for loss.  Opposite end Frank Trotter leaves after leading UM with five sacks.  Nose tackle Johnnie Farms can cover two gaps just by lining up.  The 310-pounder recorded 2 ½ sacks.

 

The back two lines of defense should be improved this year. The linebacker quartet features Akeem Davis, who plays tough against the run and covers well against the pass.  Davis registered 78 tackles with eight going for losses last year, and he led the Tigers with three interceptions and seven passes defended. 

 

The Tigers gave up right at 300 passing yards per game last season, and a weak pass rush was equally to blame with the secondary.  All four starters return with a year’s more experience, so the Tigers should improve just a little this year.  If any type of pass rush can emerge, this group could improve by more than a little.  Former starting quarterback Cannon Smith now patrols the deep zones at safety.  He broke up six passes last year, but he was burned a few times as well.

 

Memphis could actually begin the season 5-0 if everything went their way.  Their first five games come against UT-Martin, Arkansas State in nearby Jonesboro, Middle Tennessee, Duke in Durham, and Rice.  There is one additional winnable game when Tulane visits in November.  Of these six games, we believe Memphis can win as many as four.  That would almost give Fuente the Coach of the Year award in this conference.

 

 

Team	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Head Coach	Ellis Johnson
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Hattiesburg, MS
2011 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	12-2
PiRate Rating	98.3
National Rating	69
Vintage Rating	98
National Rating	71
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	7-6

 

 

The Golden Eagles improved steadily under former coach Larry Fedora the previous three seasons, and USM upset Houston to win the CUSA Championship last year.  Now Ellis Johnson takes over after spending four years directing South Carolina’s defense.  Johnson, a former defensive coordinator here, faces a major rebuilding project on that side of the ball.

 

The front wall of defensive coordinator Tommy West’s defense features just one player with any starting experience, but all three projected starters contributed last year.  Khyri Thornton showed flashed of greatness at one tackle spot, and he could emerge as the leader of this unit.  Nose tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches has the perfect body for his position.  At 312 pounds, he will plug the “A-gaps.”

 

The top player on this side of the ball lines up at the bandit position (a hybrid linebacker/end) Jamie Collins is a multi-tool weapon.  He made 98 tackles, 6 ½ sacks, 19 ½ tackles for loss, eight QB hurries, and nine passes defended.  Collins is the only experienced player on the second line of defense.

 

The back line features two potential 1^st team All-CUSA players.  Cornerback Deron Wilson led the league with 17 passes defended last year (four interceptions), and safety Jacorius Cotton added seven passed defended to 98 tackles.

 

After giving up 21 points and 340 yards last year, the defense may take a minor step backwards in 2012.  We could see USM surrendering 24 points and 360 yards per game this season.

 

The offense will also experience some growing pains as the passing game has to be rebuilt.  Austin Davis will be a tough quarterback to replace, after he passed for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns as a senior.  There is a three-way race to earn the starting nod in the opener against Nebraska.  Junior Chris Campbell leads the race, but true freshman Anthony Alford and redshirt freshman Ricky Lloyd are still in the race.  Eventually, this job will become Alford’s, as he has the tools to be another RG3.  He could become the starter after the opener, as the Golden Eagles have a bye week following their trip to Lincoln.

 

Whoever wins the QB job will have a decent set of receivers running routes, but the top two pass-catchers from last year are gone.  Slotback Tracy Lampley is speedy and can break loose for long gains as a pass receiver and as a runner.  Dominique Sullivan is a deep threat and runs well after the catch.  Senior Quentin Pierce is a sleeper; he could emerge as a key contributor as a first-time regular.

 

Two running backs figure to share the majority of the carries this season.  Desmond Johnson and Kendrick Hardy are more north-south bulldozers than breakaway threats, but a power running game forces defenses to cheat their safeties up a bit.

 

Experienced talent returns to the offensive line.  Four starters are back, and all four could vie for all-conference recognition.  Center Austin Quattrochi has an NFL future.

 

One late change involves the offensive coordinator’s position.  Steve Buckley has moved up to OC, while Rickey Bustle has moved down to running backs coach due to illness.

 

Southern Miss will have some excellent days moving the ball, but they will not be as consistent as they were in 2011.  Look for about 28 points and 400 total yards per game.

 

With Central Florida more than likely ineligible, Southern Miss may repeat as East Champs almost by default.  The Eagles host East Carolina and Marshall, the two teams that have a fighting chance to contend.  We see USM winning both games.

 

 

Team	Houston Cougars
Head Coach	Tony Levine
Colors	Red and White
City	Houston, TX
2011 Record
Conference	8-0
Overall	13-1
PiRate Rating	105.9
National Rating	44
Vintage Rating	100
National Rating	64
2012 Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	8-4

 

New Houston coach Tony Levine hopes that history can repeat itself.  Back in 1990, Houston had to replace Heisman Trophy winner Andre Ware, and David Klingler stepped in and passed for more yards than Ware had.

 

That’s wishful thinking for Levine, because nobody is going to top the yardage produced by Case Keenum last year.  Keenum finished the season with 5,631 yards to shatter the all-time Division 1 career passing mark.  His 48 touchdowns to just five interceptions and 71% completion rate were mind-boggling as well.  Keenum did not pad those numbers with a bunch of “dink and doink” passes two yards away.  He showed remarkable accuracy throwing the deep routes as well.

 

David Piland is not an untested replacement.  He actually replaced Keenum once before.  When Keenum was injured in 2010, Piland started the final eight games and passed for 2,600+ yards with a TD/Int ratio of 24/14.  Expect Houston to still be among the nation’s passing leaders, but the drop in yards per game could top 100.

 

Also gone are three highly talented receivers that took 272 receptions worth 3,939 yards and 37 touchdowns.  That is too much talent to replace for any team.  Fifth year senior Ronnie Williams caught just 16 passes, but he should at least triple that number as the new starting H-back.  Mark Roberts and Chance Blackmon figure to be the starting wideouts, while Daniel Spencer gets the nod at the other inside receiver spot.  This trio combined for just 19 receptions last year.

 

Charles Sims averaged an eye-popping 7.5 yards per rush last year, which was better than any other back in the nation that was not the pitch option at Army, Navy, or Georgia Tech.  Sims carried the ball just nine times per game, and he will see more action this season (and thus his average per carry will fall).

 

Thanks to the return of almost all 2011 contributors, the offensive line will be a team strength.  Guard Jacolby Ashworth should be a 1^st team All-CUSA player this year.

 

The defense was overlooked last year, but UH played tough on that side of the ball.  The stats didn’t look as good as other teams, but they had to defend for 75 scrimmage plays per contest, whereas Central Florida’s defense only had to defend 61 plays.

 

New defensive coordinator Jamie Bryant switched Houston to a 4-3 alignment in hopes of improving against the run.  Factoring out sacks, the Cougars gave up 4.7 yards per run!  Tackle Dominic Miller should benefit from the switch.  Look for his tackles to increase by 50%.  Ends Kelvin King and Eric Braswell teamed for 73 tackles last year, but neither was a sack monster.

 

UH will miss two talented linebackers in Marcus McGraw and Sammy Brown (234 tackles, 16 sacks, 44 ½ tackles for loss).  However, there is returning quality in Derrick Mathews and Phillip Steward.  Steward is a dual threat linebacker (tough vs. run and pass), while Mathews is not far behind talent-wise.

 

The back line of defense returns three starters and four top reserves from last year, so it should be in great shape.  Cornerback D. J. Hayden is the best of the bunch; he intercepted a couple of passes and broke up 11 more.

 

Even with all the losses sustained by this team, Houston figures to contend for the CUSA West Division crown.  The Cougars play at SMU in October and host Tulsa in November.  Road trips to East Carolina and Marshall could be tricky, and a loss in either one could be enough to finish second or third in the division. 

 

 

Team	Rice Owls
Head Coach	David Bailiff
Colors	Dark Blue and Gray
City	Houston, TX
2011 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
PiRate Rating	89.0
National Rating	97
Vintage Rating	86
National Rating	112
2012 Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

Since their outstanding 10-3 season in 2008, Rice has won just 10 of 36 games.  Sixth year coach David Bailiff will not end the malaise this season, as he faces heavy graduation losses on both sides of the ball.

 

On offense, the Owls were very inconsistent last year.  Quarterback Taylor McHargue had good games and bad games, as he could not hold onto the starting job the last two seasons.  McHargue completed 57.5% of his passes with a TD/Int ratio of 8/5.  He only averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt.  Redshirt freshman Driphus Jackson is more of a running quarterback, but he could see considerable time if McHargue struggles again.

 

Rice has depth at receiver this year with the return of three receivers plus the addition of a potential star who could line up just about anywhere on the offense.  That star is Sam McGuffie.  McGuffie missed most of 2011 due to injury, and his healthy return could be worth three or four points per game.  Look for him to line up in the slot, but he could return to the backfield as well.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see him even take some snaps in a wild owl formation.  Tight end Luke Willson could top 40 receptions this year.  The 6-5 senior caught 29 passes last year.

 

Running back Charles Ross looks to rebound from injury as well.  The junior can bulldoze his way for an extra yard or two on power runs, but he is not going to sweep around the flank for long gains.

 

The offensive line is in shambles with only one full-time starter returning.  Guard Drew Carroll could potentially make an all-conference team in a year or two, but he is the senior statesman of this unit as a sophomore.

 

The Rice defense gave up 460+ yards per game last year, and prospects are not all that good for any improvement in 2012.  In fact, things could get worse if the offense cannot sustain time-consuming drives.

 

The Owls will use a 4-2-5 defense as their base this year, and the five defensive backs are the strength on this side.  Bryce Callahan is the big star on the defense.  The cornerback tied for the conference lead with six interceptions last year, and he batted away nine others.  Kat Safety Paul Porras and free safety Corey Frazier combined for 137 tackles last year.

 

The linebacker tandem is still up for grabs in August.  Former highly recruited Kyle Prater did not live up to his press clippings when he transferred here from LSU.  He made just 19 tackles and just one for a loss.  He competed with James Radcliffe at the weak side spot, while Cameron Nwosu tries to hold on to his starting strong side spot.  Nwosu led the team with 108 tackles, but he is being pushed hard by two others.

 

There will be three new starters up front, and nobody on this roster can adequately replace Scott Solomon at end.  Solomon led the Owls with 8 ½ sacks and 13 ½ tackles for loss last year.  Jared Williams is the lone holdover from this unit.

 

The Owls non-conference schedule is tricky.  After opening at home with UCLA, which should be a loss, they visit Kansas and Louisiana Tech, before hosting Marshall.  It isn’t impossible that they could be 0-4 when they play Houston at Reliant Stadium.  They follow that game with a visit to Memphis, and still, the Owls could be winless when they play UT-San Antonio on homecoming.

 

It is going to be a long year for the Owls.  They should be competitive in about half their games, but they may only win about two.

 

 

 

Team	S M U  Mustangs
Head Coach	June Jones
Colors	Crimson and Blue
City	Dallas, TX
2011 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	97.9
National Rating	70
Vintage Rating	103
National Rating	53
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	7-5

 

 

June Jones has no trouble recruiting quarterbacks to pilot his run and shoot offense.  If he cannot pull them out of the high school ranks, he gets them from other colleges.  He has a potential 1^st team all-conference player in Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert.

 

Gilbert was pressed into duty against Alabama in the 2009-10 National Championship Game, and he showed he was up to the task as a freshman.  He was blamed for Texas’s downturn in 2010, but he was not the reason why the Longhorns did not win.  Expect Gilbert to complete about 60-62% of his passes and gain around 3,300 yards.

 

Gilbert will have two exceptional receivers to hook up with this year.  Darius Johnson returns after leading the Mustangs with 79 receptions and 1,118 yards.  Der’ricck Thompson caught 30 passes good for 411 yards in eight starts.

 

Keeping defenses honest is the top running back in the league. Zach Line missed three games and still rushed for 1,224 yards and 17 touchdowns. 

 

The offensive line is the big question this year.  All five starters must be replaced, two of whom were NFL draft choices.  Blocking for the run and shoot is not the easiest thing in the world, and guard Blake McJunkin is the only returnee on par with what was lost.

 

The Mustangs have improved their defensive numbers every year under Jones.  If you follow the linear progression, SMU is due to give up about 21 points and 330 yards per game this year.  If they do, they will be at the top of the CUSA West Standings.

 

The 3-4 alignment will revolve around the quartet at linebacker, where all four starters return this year.  Ja’Gared Davis and Taylor Reed were the top two tacklers last year.  The dynamic duo teamed up for 184 stops, 9 ½ sacks, 21 ½ total stops for loss, and 11 passes defended.  Cameron Rogers is a potential star here as well.

 

The front line features a giant in Margus Hunt.  The 6-8, 295 end dumped enemy quarterbacks three times last year in a designated pass rush role.  Nose tackle Torlan Pittman made 37 tackles, with six going for losses.

 

The secondary was more of a liability last season, and it is a minor question as 2012 starts.  The best player from this unit has moved on to the NFL, so SMU could be vulnerable against the pass. 

 

SMU benefits in league play by getting to host both Houston and Tulsa.  Additionally both games follow relatively easy games the week before.  The Mustangs have a tough out-of-league schedule with games at Baylor and at home against TCU and Texas A&M.  They also draw Central Florida and Southern Miss out of the East, so they could lose enough games to finish in second place even if they beat Houston and Tulsa.  We think this team will fall one game short of taking the West flag, but they will be bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season.

 

Team	Tulane Green Wave
Head Coach	Curtis Johnson
Colors	Olive Green and Sky Blue
City	New Orleans, LA
2011 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-11
PiRate Rating	79.9
National Rating	113
Vintage Rating	89
National Rating	103
2012 Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9

 

It has been 10 years since Tulane last had a winning season.  There are no J. P. Losman’s or Mewelde Moore’s on this current Green Wave edition, so it will be at least 11 years after this season.

 

Curtis Johnson is the new head coach.  He comes from the New Orleans Saints via the Miami Hurricanes.  Johnson faces a tough uphill battle in the Crescent City.

 

What had the makings for an improved defense has quickly eroded into another fine mess.  TU had one of the top defensive players in the league in middle linebacker Trent Mackey (145 tackles, 4 ½ sacks, 14 TFL).  Mackey was just suspended indefinitely following his arrest.  Mackey is worth about 2 ½ to 3 points to the Green Wave.

 

Three additional players expected to contribute and contend for starting spots on the defensive side will not be around this year, including expected starting end Michael Pierce.

 

What do these defections leave in the front seven?  Not much.  Sam Linebacker Darryl Farley finished a distant second to Mackey with 69 tackles.  Matthew Bailey made just 33 tackles from his weakside linebacker position.

 

Up front, end Austen Jacks is the sole returning starter.  Jacks made 32 tackles with 2 ½ sacks in 2011.

 

The back line of defense suffered no late scratches, and it is the only area of the defense that is not a major concern.  Cornerback Ryan Travis is now the top player on the stop side.  Travis intercepted four passes and knocked away six more last year.  Safety Shakiel Smith finished third on the team with 68 tackles, but he needs to step up in pass coverage.

 

The TU defense gave up 37.5 points and 410 yards of offense last year.  Without Mackey, those numbers could be worse. 

 

There is a glimmer of hope on the other side of the ball, as Tulane has some decent offensive talent.  Quarterback Ryan Griffin will benefit from the implementation of the new pro-set offense.  Griffin completed 55.6% of his passes for 2,502 yards and 13 touchdowns last year, but he needs to cut down on his 10 interceptions.

 

Orleans Darkwa came close to rushing for 1,000 yards for the second year in a row, and maybe the third time is the charm.  Darkwa scored 13 touchdowns and proved to be a receiving threat with 37 receptions.

 

Darkwa was the number four receiver on this team, and the good news is that the three players with more receptions all return.  The best news is that neither of the three will be the best receiver this year.  Ryan Grant returns after missing almost all of last year with a hernia.  Add Grant to Wilson Van Hooser, Justyn Shackleford, and Xavier Rush, and TU should have a much improved passing game this year.

 

The offensive line is a little inexperienced with just two starters returning, but there should not be much drop-off.  Tackle Eric Jones has all-conference potential.

 

Tulane averaged just 21 points and 340 yards per game last year.  We expect the Green Wave to run for 130 and pass for 230 yards this year and score about 24 points per game. 

 

Home games with Ole Miss, Louisiana-Monroe, UAB, and Rice coupled with road games against Louisiana and Memphis give TU a chance to win more games this season than last.  Three wins would be a 50% improvement.

 

 

Team	Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Head Coach	Bill Blankenship
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Tulsa, OK
2011 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	104.9
National Rating	49
Vintage Rating	105
National Rating	43
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	10-3

 

It can be tough being number three in your state, but Tulsa has been successful and exciting in recent years and with three coaches.  In the past five seasons, the Golden Hurricane have averaged 8.8 wins per year, 38.4 points per game, and 494 yards per game.

 

TU relied on a Texas transfer the previous three seasons, and now they turn to a Nebraska transfer.  Cody Green takes over at quarterback for G. J. Kinne.  Green completed 54% of his passes in two seasons at Nebraska (17 games).  If Green can live up to his potential, the TU offense will shine once again, because the Hurricane are loaded at back and receiver.

 

The receiving corps ranks at the top of the league.  Three players have the ability to turn any pass into a long gain.  Willie Carter and Bryan Burnham both made the 2^nd team all-conference list last year after teaming for 115 catches and 1,718 yards.  Jordan James added 31 receptions.  Out of the backfield, Trey Watts caught 31 passes.

 

Watts teams with Ja’Terian Douglas to form the best one-two running back punch in the league.  Both topped 880 yards rushing last year.  Watts is the more consistent of the two, but Douglas is the game-changer.

 

The offensive line faces a minor rebuilding effort.  Center Trent Dupy and guard Stetson Burnett will form the nucleus, and they are all-conference quality.

 

Coach Bill Blankenship’s offense could easily top last year’s results (33.1 points/440 yards).  Whether the defense can improve on its numbers will determine if the Hurricane can get back to the CUSA Championship Game for the first time since 2008.  TU gave up 27.3 points and 415 yards per game last year, but those numbers were skewed by the fact that they faced Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston.  In the other nine games, TU gave up 17.8 points and 352 yards per game.

 

The defensive line will show improvement this year with the return of three regulars.  Tackles Derrick Jackson and Daeshon Bufford should keep opponents from running up the middle, while end Cory Dorris should plug the off-tackle hole on his side.

 

Shawn Jackson anchors the second line of defense.  The Will linebacker paced TU with 4 ½ sacks, and he recorded 11 total tackles for loss.  DeAundre Brown returns to the Cane position (hybrid linebacker/safety) after missing nine games to injury last year.

 

Tulsa is loaded on the back line with the best secondary in the league.  Bandit safety Dexter McCoil and free safety Marco Nelson could both make the all-conference team this year.  McCoil tied for the conference lead with six interceptions and knocked away seven others. 

 

You can call the 2012 “A Tale of Two Schedules” for Tulsa.  The Hurricane open with Iowa State, Tulane, Nicholls State, Fresno State, UAB, Marshall, UTEP, and Rice, and it is possible they will be 8-0 and ranked in the top 20 heading into their week off.  They get two weeks to prepare for the final four games: at Arkansas, at Houston, Central Florida, and at SMU.  What a way to end a season!  We think Tulsa may drop one of those first eight but win two of those final four and get back to the CUSA Championship Game.

 

 

Team	U T E P  Miners
Head Coach	Mike Price
Colors	Orange and Navy
City	El Paso, TX
2011 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	90.2
National Rating	94
Vintage Rating	93
National Rating	90
2012 Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

After guiding the Miners to consecutive 8-4 seasons, Coach Mike Price has suffered through six seasons of near misses where UTEP has been a one or two wins away from returning to a bowl ever since.  The end of the line could be near for Price, and we don’t see him righting the ship this season.  The schedule is much too difficult to find six winnable games.

 

Price likes to throw the ball all over the field, and he has a decent quarterback with experience returning for his senior year.  Nick Lamaison was slowed by injuries last year, missing four games.  He returned in the final month, and UTEP averaged 238 passing yards in those games (but won only one of five).

 

Mike Edwards and Jordan Leslie give Lamaison two credible targets.  Edwards led the team with 50 receptions and 657 yards last year.  Kevin Perry should provide more offense at tight end this year.

 

Nathan Jeffrey started just one game last year, but he will be the regular running back.  Jeffrey may not be a 1,000-yard threat, but he is a fine run-pass combo back.  He may even be more dangerous coming out of the backfield on passing plays.

 

An improved offensive line will make the UTEP offense succeed this year if it can stay healthy.  Center Eloy Atkinson and Tackles James Nelson and Brander Craighead missed spring practice nursing injuries.

 

A vulnerable defense is the reason UTEP will not be able to get above .500 this season.  The Miners have some talent, but they have holes everywhere on the stop side. 

 

End Horace Miller is the top player in the trenches.  Miller led UTEP with five sacks and eight tackles for loss.  Senior Greg Watkins inherits the other end spot after he started five times in 2011.

 

There will be a drop in talent at linebacker following the graduation of leading tackler Jeremy Springer as well as Isaiah Carter.  Josh Fely is the lone holdover.

 

The secondary returns two starters, neither of whom will make even the honorable mention of the all-conference selections.  Safety DeShawn Grayson is the leading returning tackler (67), and if he leads the team this year, it will be bad news.

 

UTEP’s schedule includes non-conference games with Oklahoma and Wisconsin, as well as a road trip to Ole Miss.  1-3 is probably the best they can hope outside of league play, and the Miners are not capable of going 5-3 in the league.  So, it looks like another subpar season, possibly the last for Price.

 

Coming Wednesday afternoon/evening: A look at the Big East Conference.  Should it still be a BCS league?

2010 Big 12 Conference Preview

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Big 12 Conference Preview

The Big 12 Conference almost ceased to exist this summer.  It looked like eight of the 12 teams would leave and end up in the Big Ten, Pac-10, and even SEC.  After the dust cleared, the conference was left with 10 teams.  Colorado was the only member of six possible teams to accept the Pac-10 bid.  Nebraska, tired of seeing Texas control the league, gladly accepted a bid to the Big Ten.  The rest of the league will hold a grudge in this final season before divorce becomes official.  Speaking of officials, this league will need close scrutiny this year.  After Nebraska felt they had been robbed in the Big 12 Championship Game, can they expect any better treatment this year? 

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos	North	B12	W-L
1	Nebraska	8-0	12-1
2	Missouri	4-4	8-4
3	Colorado	4-4	6-6
4	Kansas	3-5	5-7
5	Kansas State	2-6	6-6
6	Iowa State	1-7	3-9
Pos	South	B12	W-L
1	Oklahoma	7-1	12-1
2	Texas	6-2	10-2
3	Texas Tech	5-3	8-4
4	Texas A&M	4-4	7-5
5	Baylor	3-5	6-6
6	Oklahoma State	1-7	5-7

 

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma over Nebraska

 

BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma

BCS Bowl: Nebraska

Cotton Bowl: Texas

Alamo Bowl: Missouri

Insight Bowl: Texas Tech

Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M

Texas Bowl: Baylor

Pinstripe Bowl: Colorado

Dallas Football Classic: Kansas State

 

 

Team By Team Breakdown

North Division

Team	Colorado Buffaloes
Head Coach	Dan Hawkins
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Boulder, CO
2009 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9
PiRate Rating	105.5
National Rating	45
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

Strengths: Offensive Line, Receivers, Defensive Line

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Running Back, Special Teams

Expected Offense: 24-27 points / 320-340 yards

Expected Defense: 24-27 points / 340-360 yards

Schedule: Out of Conference: Colorado State (n), @ California, Hawaii, and Georgia

Interdivision: Baylor, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Outlook: The Buffaloes need to settle on one quarterback, and Tyler Hansen is that man.  Hansen should get more time to pass and pass for 2,500 or more yards, and we don’t expect CU QBs to be sacked 44 times again.  Rodney Stewart could top 1,000 yards rushing.  Transfers from Michigan, USC and UCLA should bolster the receiving corps.  The offensive line returns the entire two-deep from last year, including nine players with starting experience.

A better pass rush should help the defense improve a little, but we don’t expect the Buffs to challenge for a top four position in the league.  Coach Dan Hawkins must win this year, or he will be out of a job.  We don’t know if 6-6 and a minor bowl will be enough, but that is what we think will happen.

Team	Iowa State Cyclones
Head Coach	Paul Rhoads
Colors	Cardinal and Gold
City	Ames, IA
2009 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	7-6
PiRate Rating	94.4
National Rating	77
2010 Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	3-9

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Offensive Line, Special Teams

Weaknesses: Receiver, Defensive Line, Linebacker

Expected Offense: 22-26 point / 375-400 yards

Expected Defense: 24-28 points / 425-450 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Northern Illinois, @ Iowa, Northern Iowa, and Utah

Interdivision: Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas

Outlook: Coach Paul Rhoads placed the Cyclones in a bowl in his first year in Ames, but ISU will revert back to their losing ways this year.  The offense will be somewhat improved, but it was ranked last in the Big 12 last year.  Quarterback Austin Arnaud will hand the ball to Alexander Robinson a lot this year, and if Robinson stays healthy, he could top 1,250 yards on the ground.  Arnaud can run and pass with equal competency, so he should take some of the pressure off Robinson.  Other than Jake Williams, ISU will have to rely on several average receivers.  None of his teammates will allow Williams to avoid double coverage.  The offensive line features tackle Kelechi Osemele, a 2^nd Team All-Big 12 selection last year.

Seven key defensive performers graduated, so the Cyclones will take a large step backwards.  The front seven will be much weaker, and opponents will run the ball for more yards and pass against less pass rushing pressure.  Even with a decent secondary, the weaker pass rush will force them to cover a half-second to a second longer.  Expect the pass yardage allowed to go up as well.

ISU should win two of their four non-conference games, but we can only see them winning one Big 12 contest.  Call it a 3-9 rebuilding season.

Team	Kansas Jayhawks
Head Coach	Turner Gill
Colors	Dark Blue and Red
City	Lawrence, KS
2009 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	102.0
National Rating	53
2010 Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7

 

Strengths: Not many, but the Offensive Line and Defensive Line are small positives

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Linebacker, Special Teams

Expected Offense: 22-26 points / 330-350 yards

Expected Defense: 24-28 points / 360-380 yards

Schedule: Out of conference: North Dakota State, Georgia Tech, @ Southern Mississippi, New Mexico State

Interdivision: @ Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State

Outlook: Turner Gill takes over after bringing Buffalo from also-ran to MAC Champion in short time.  It will take time here for his system to bear fruit, but we are confident that he can recruit the Midwest and Southwest and return the Jayhawks to prominence.

KU will debut a new quarterback this year, as Kale Pick and Jordan Webb are locked in a competitive battle.  Pick threw five passes, while Webb has yet to take a college snap.  An interesting battle brews at running back, where last year’s leading rusher Toben Opurum and 6^th year player and former linebacker Angus Quigley could form a decent tandem.  KU lost two star receivers who combined for 186 receptions and more than 2,300 yards, so this will be a liability.  Four starters return to the line, and they will undergo some restructuring to fit Gill’s change of offense.

In a pass happy league, a weak secondary is bad news.  KU has some bad news.  The returning defensive backs combined for just two interceptions.  This side of the ball will have to learn a new system as well, and the defensive line is the only average unit using Big 12 standards.  A real plus for the Jayhawks is not having to play Oklahoma or Texas from the South.

Gill has enough talent to repeat last year’s 5-7 record.  The offense will not be as potent, but it will eat more clock.  That will help the defense hold opponents under 30 points per game.

Team	Kansas State Wildcats
Head Coach	Bill Snyder
Colors	Royal Purple and White
City	Manhattan, KS
2009 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6
PiRate Rating	96.5
National Rating	67
2010 Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	6-6

 

Strengths: Running Back, Defensive Line

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Receiver

Expected Offense: 22-25 points / 325-350 yards

Expected Defense: 21-24 points / 325-350 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: UCLA, Missouri State, Central Florida, @ North Texas

Interdivision: @ Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas

Outlook: Kansas State’s offense will move on the legs of running back Daniel Thomas.  He raced for 1,265 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, and he could top 1,400 this season.  An experienced offensive line returns, and they are better run blockers than pass blockers.

Quarterback Carson Coffman started four games last year, but he was unspectacular.  With a below average receiving corps, expect KSU to struggle when they get behind in games.

On defense, the line is talented, and there is depth.  They should clear out enough space for the new linebackers to have decent first years as starters.  However, there is not a great pass rusher on the roster.

Look for Kansas State to sweep their four non-conference opponents, which means they only will need two league wins to earn a bowl bid.  That’s what they will get.

Team	Missouri Tigers
Head Coach	Gary Pinkel
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Columbia, MO
2009 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	111.6
National Rating	32
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	8-4

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back

Weaknesses: Receiver (not that much of a weakness)

Expected Offense: 31-35 points / 425-450 yards

Expected Defense: 20-24 points / 350-375 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Illinois (n), McNeese State, San Diego State, Miami (O)

Interdivision: @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech

Outlook: Blaine Gabbert returns at QB where he passed for almost 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns to just nine picks.  Not the runner Chase Daniel was, he can still pull the ball down and cross the sticks for a first down.  Running back Derrick Washington saw his production drop from over 1,000 yards in 2008 to 865 last year; with an improved offensive line, look for that number to climb back over 1,000.  The only question on offense is at receiver.  Mizzou lost two great pass catchers that combined for 159 receptions and 20 touchdowns.  To make matters worse, Jerrell Jackson, who was expected to be the leading receiver this year, will miss the first three games with a fractured wrist.  Don’t expect him to return and catch half a dozen passes in September.

The Tigers gave up a couple of big plays at the wrong time last year, and it cost them two conference wins and the North Division title.  Expect improved play on this side of the ball as all three units will be improved thanks to the return of eight of the top nine tacklers.  Missouri only picked off eight passes last year.  The entire secondary returns, and the Tigers will intercept double digit passes this season.  The pass rush can only get better with the return of end Aldon Smith.  He recorded 11 ½ sacks last year.  Led by Andrew Gachkar and Will Ebner, the linebacking unit will be tough against the run.

The pre-conference schedule should allow Missouri to start 4-0.  They could be 6-0 by the time they face Oklahoma on homecoming.  We are being as pessimistic as we can when we call for the Tigers to go 4-4 in league play.  They could be 6-2 if they stay healthy and prevent the big plays on defense.

Team	Nebraska Cornhuskers
Head Coach	Bo Pelini
Colors	Scarlet and Cream
City	Lincoln, NE
2009 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	10-4
PiRate Rating	120.7
National Rating	13
2010 Prediction
Conference	8-0
Overall	12-1

 

Strengths: Running Back, Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back, Special Teams

Weaknesses: Quarterback

Expected Offense: 28-32 points / 350-375 yards

Expected Defense: 14-18 points / 275-300 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Western Kentucky, Idaho, @ Washington, South Dakota State

Interdivision: Texas, @ Oklahoma State, @ Texas A&M

Outlook: If Nebraska had just an average quarterback, they would be our pick for one of the two BCS Championship Game teams.  Zac Lee, Cody Green, and Taylor Martinez are still locked in a battle to determine the starter, but we would be surprised if anybody other than Lee line up under center for the first game.  Roy Helu will have a tough time carrying the offense if no passing game develops.  Helu rushed for 1,147 yards and 10 scores last year.  The ‘Huskers return some talented receivers, and they should help the quarterbacks improve their passing numbers.  Niles Paul might be a 1,000 yard receiver at eight other Big 12 schools, but he’ll have to settle for 40-50 receptions and 800-900 yards here.  The offensive line took a major hit when center Mike Smith broke his leg, but Coach Bo Pelini will field another excellent interior.

Nebraska’s defense will take a step back, because it is impossible to replace Ndamukong Suh, Phillip Dillard, Larry Asante, Matt O’Hanlon, and Barry Turner all in one season.  A weaker defense means that NU will give up more than 14 points per game.  The defensive line still has star talent with end Pierre Allen and tackle Jared Crick.  Crick made 15 total tackles for loss including 9 ½ sacks.  Allen added five sacks and 12 total tackles for loss.  They also combined for nine batted away passes.  There’s royalty in the secondary with the return of Prince Amukamara.  He led the ‘Huskers with 16 passes defended (5 Int/11 PBU). 

Alex Henery is one of the best dual punter/kickers in college football, and Niles Paul is a gem as a kick and punt returner.

We believe that Nebraska has a decent shot at running the table in the regular season.  The October 16 game at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln with Texas is going to be unbelievable, and the Longhorns are going to be treated like Sarah Palin with a chainsaw outside Memorial Stadium in Berkeley.  We think the Cornhuskers will enter the Big 12 Championship game ranked number one and suffer defeat at the hand of their oldest rival.  Still, they should get a bid to a BCS bowl.

South Division

Team	Baylor Bears
Head Coach	Art Briles
Colors	Green and Gold
City	Waco, TX
2009 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	4-8
PiRate Rating	103.7
National Rating	48
2010 Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	6-6

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Defensive Back (small strength)

Weaknesses: Running Back (other than QB), Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker

Expected Offense: 26-30 points / 375-400 yards

Expected Defense: 26-30 points / 375-400 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Sam Houston, Buffalo, @ TCU, @ Rice

Interdivision: Kansas, @ Colorado, Kansas State

Outlook: It starts and ends with quarterback Robert Griffin.  In just over two games, Griffin had passed for 481 yards with four TDs and no interceptions before he went down with a season-ending ACL injury.  If he stays healthy for 12 games, he should pass for close to 3,500 yards and lead Baylor to its first bowl game in 16 years.  The running backs suffered with the loss of Griffin, because defenses had to respect Griffin’s ability to take off and run.  Expect improvement in the rushing attack, but don’t expect the Bears to top 150 yards per game on the ground Jay Finley did rush for 1,072 yards in 2008, but he will not get enough touches to repeat that.  Griffin has a couple of good target to pass to in Kendall Wright and Lanear Sampson, but another receiver needs to emerge.  Three starters return to the offensive line, and Griffin will make their job much easier.

The defense lost six starters, including four of their top five tacklers.  A weaker than Big 12 average defensive line will cause BU some trouble as opponents run the ball to eat the clock and keep Griffin off the field.  The Bear pass rush won’t scare many enemy quarterbacks either.  BU has one talented linebacker in Antonio Johnson.  Johnson’s 77 tackles and two sacks are the most of any returnee.  The defensive backfield would have been a bigger strength had Ahmad Dixon actually showed up.  He was the highest recruit the Bears have had in years and would have started immediately at free safety.  Baylor still has some talent here with cornerbacks Clifton Odom and Chance Casey returning.

Baylor has three winnable non-conference games and three or four more in the Big 12.  We believe they will go 3-5 in the Big 12 and 6-6 overall, which will earn a bid to one of the lower Lone Star state bowl games.

Team	Oklahoma Sooners
Head Coach	Bob Stoops
Colors	Cream and Crimson
City	Norman, OK
2009 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	125.6
National Rating	3
2010 Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	12-1

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back, Special Teams

Weaknesses: None really.  If you had to get picky, maybe in the seams of the middle zones on pass defense.

Expected Offense: 35-40 points / 450-475 yards

Expected Defense: 18-22 points / 300-325 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Utah State, Florida State, Air Force, @ Cincinnati

Interdivision: Iowa State, @ Missouri, @ Texas A&M

Outlook: Can a team that lost the first pick in the draft, three other 1^st Round picks, three other draft picks, and three more players that are still in NFL training camps be better than they were a year ago?  It sounds crazy, but OU could not only be better, they could be the best!  Losing Sam Bradford will hardly be noticed, as he only threw 69 passes last year.  Landry Jones returns at quarterback after passing for just under 3,200 yards and 26 touchdowns.  He needs to cut down on his 14 interceptions.  At running back, DeMarco Murray and Jermie Calhoun will team for 1,500 yards, and the Sooners will be a much more balanced team this year.  Murray will not be asked to carry the ball 20 times any more, and he should stay healthy.  The most lethal unit on this team is pass catchers.  Ryan Broyles and Dejuan Miller could both earn all-conference recognition; throw in super freshman Kenny Stills with tight ends Trent Ratteree and James Hanna, and you have one of the nation’s top receiving corps.  The offensive line is the weakest unit of the attack side, and yet it is still one of the four best in the Big 12.

On Defense, the Sooners lost five star players.  Don’t pity them; the players they have coming back are just as good or will soon be.  In the trenches, end Jeremy Beal is the best at his position in the Big 12.  He dumped quarterbacks 11 times last year and stopped runners for losses eight times.  He can drop back in pass coverage on zone blitzes and play pass defense like a linebacker.  Speaking of linebacker, Travis Lewis returns to the second line of defense after earning 1^st Team All-Big 12 accolades.  He will have two new partners, and both are stars of the future.  The Sooners have two starters returning to the secondary, led by safety Quinton Carter, who grabbed four enemy quarterback passes while batting away five others.

Oklahoma has the talent to run the table and be 13-0 following a win in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If so, we know where they will be playing in January.  We are going to go out on a small limb and pick one Big 12 team to knock them off in an upset, just like Colorado did to them in 2007.  Call it a 12-1 regular season plus Fiesta Bowl bid.

Team	Oklahoma State Cowboys
Head Coach	Mike Gundy
Colors	Orange and Black
City	Stillwater, OK
2009 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-4
PiRate Rating	99.8
National Rating	59
2010 Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	5-7

 

Strengths: Running Back, Linebacker

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Offensive Line

Expected Offense: 20-24 points / 325-350 yards

Expected Defense: 23-27 points / 350-375 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Washington State, Troy, Tulsa, @ Louisiana-Lafayette

Interdivision: Nebraska, @ Kansas State, @ Texas

Outlook: It will be a long season in Stillwater, as the Cowboys must rebuild on both sides of the ball.  OSU returns just four offensive and three defensive starters to a team that many felt underachieved last year.  The rabid fans, in their desire not to play second fiddle in the Sooner State, may chase Coach Mike Gundy out of town if the ‘Pokes fail to make it back to a bowl.

Gundy brought Dana Holgorsen in from Houston to take over as offensive coordinator.  Holgorsen will institute the spread passing game used by the Cougars (which gained 512 yards and 45 points against OSU last year).  His first order of business was to pick a quarterback, and Brandon Weeden will not be confused for Casey Keenum.  Weeden spent five years pitching in the Minor Leagues and has seen a lot more action on the mound than under center.  Having running back Kendall Hunter 100% healthy once again could be the saving grace for this side of the ball.  When healthy in 2008, he rushed for 1,555 yards and earned All-American honors.  He played in just three games last year.  The loss of Dez Bryant to the NFL Cowboys won’t hurt too much, since Bryant hardly played last year.  Holgorsen will use as many as 10 receivers in his pass-happy offense.  Hubert Anyiam should be the star of the group.  The offensive line will be a major liability, as just two starters return.

Oklahoma State allowed just 96 yards rushing last year, but with five (and maybe six pending the outcome of an arrest) of the front seven gone, that number could increase by over 50% this season.  Ugo Chinasa spearheads a respectable pass rush.  In the secondary, amazingly Andrew McGee returns to play after suffering a broken neck last season.  He will team with safety Markelle Martin to provide experience in the back line of defense.

Okie State has a good shot at winning all non-conference games, so they will only need two Big 12 wins to become bowl eligible.  We actually believe they will have a difficult time winning any league game and will call for the Cowboys to go 1-7 in the conference. 

Team	Texas Longhorns
Head Coach	Mack Brown
Colors	Burnt Orange and White
City	Austin, TX
2009 Record
Conference	8-0
Overall	13-1
PiRate Rating	119.3
National Rating	16
2010 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	10-2

 

Strengths: Receiver, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back, Special Teams

Weaknesses: Quarterback (small weakness)

Expected Offense: 31-34 points / 375-400 yards

Expected Defense: 15-19 points / 275-300 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: @ Rice (Reliant Stad.), Wyoming, UCLA, Florida Atlantic

Interdivision: @ Nebraska, Iowa State, @ Kansas State

Outlook: When any other team loses as much talent as the Longhorns, you can expect a long season.  In Texas, they just insert the next star at each position.  The ‘Horns lost their all-time leading passer, a receiver that caught 116 passes for 1,485 yards, and four starting offensive linemen, and yet UT will still have a lethal offense.  Quarterback Garrett Gilbert got his Baptism under fire last year in the National Championship Game when Colt McCoy was knocked out of the game in the first half.  Gilbert brought the Longhorns back in the second half and gave them a chance.  If he could do that against Alabama, what do you think he will do against Iowa State?  Expect more contribution from the running game with Tre’ Newton and Fozzy Whittaker carrying the load this year.  Texas has a stable of fine receivers as well, led by James Kirkendoll, Malcolm Williams, and John Chiles.  Chiles is an ex-quarterback, and he could be used in some trick plays.

Coach Mack Brown can sleep easier at night with Will Muschamp at his side.  The head coach-in-waiting has made the Longhorn defense the envy of the nation.  His 2010 team will do just fine once he finds a way to plug some holes in the defensive line.  Sam Acho and Kheeston Randall form the conference’s best pair of tackles.  Acho made 10 sacks last year.  Emmanuel Acho heads the second line of defense.  He is a tough run-stopper.  In the secondary, cornerbacks Curtis Brown and Aaron Williams form the best tandem of cover men in the league, but the loss of All-American Earl Thomas will make this a little weaker pass defense.

Texas must play at Nebraska, and if the officiating is honest, we do not believe the Longhorns can win this grudge match-to-be.  The Longhorns have a 50-50 shot with Oklahoma, and they have about a 20% chance of losing to Texas Tech, Texas A&M, or Kansas State.  We’ll call it a 6-2 league mark and 10-2 overall.

Team	Texas A&M Aggies
Head Coach	Mike Sherman
Colors	Maroon and White
City	College Station, TX
2009 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	6-7
PiRate Rating	113.5
National Rating	26
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-5

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Linebacker

Weaknesses: Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Special Teams

Expected Offense: 34-38 points / 475-500 yards

Expected Defense: 26-30 points / 375-400 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Stephen F Austin, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, Arkansas (n)

Interdivision: Missouri, @ Kansas, Nebraska

Outlook: The Aggies have one of the best offenses in a BCS conference.  With Quarterback Jerrod Johnson running the team, if the offensive line can give him adequate protection, A&M could top 40 points per game.  Johnson passes for 3,579 yards and 30 touchdowns last year, while running for 506 and eight more scores.  Johnson’s ability to take off with the ball really helped the running game to click.  The Aggies return two running backs capable of topping 1,000 yards.  Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray combined for 1,601 yards and 15 touchdowns last year.  At receiver, Johnson has his big three pass catchers returning this year.  Uzoma Nwachukwu, Ryan Tannehill, and Jeff Fuller teamed for 127 receptions (each had at least 40) and 17 touchdowns.  Tannehill is a converted QB, so he could be used on a trick play as a passer.

The defense switches to a 3-4 alignment this year, and there isn’t a star in the trenches.  Last year’s star defensive lineman has been moved to rush linebacker.  Von Miller led the league with 17 sacks, and Coach Mike Sherman hopes he can continue to get into the backfield as a linebacker.  In the secondary, last year’s leading tackler, Trent Hunter, returns after making 95 tackles.

With a powerful offense and an improving defense, there is only one way to go for the Aggies.  Expect Texas A&M to be in almost every game this year and win at least half of their Big 12 contests.  Toss in at least three non-conference wins, and the Aggies will have a winning season.

Team	Texas Tech Red Raiders
Head Coach	Tommy Tuberville
Colors	Red and Black
City	Lubbock, TX
2009 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	9-4
PiRate Rating	112.6
National Rating	30
2010 Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	8-4

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Defensive Back, Special Teams

Weaknesses: Offensive Line

Expected Offense: 26-30 points / 350-375 yards

Expected Defense: 21-24 points / 325-350 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: S M U, @ New Mexico, Weber State, Houston

Outlook: What a change of philosophies!  The only thing we can compare it to is the change that the University of Cincinnati’s basketball team made when Oscar Robertson graduated in 1960 after taking the Bearcats to three consecutive top five finishes and back-to-back Final Fours.  Coach George Smith left, and UC replaced him with Ed Jucker, who instituted a power offense and pressure defense that produced scores like 70-55 rather than 105-90.

Enter Coach Tommy Tuberville to replace Mike Leach.  Say goodbye to 50 passes a game and hello to 20 runs between the tackles.  Say goodbye to 150 scrimmage plays per game.  Tuberville will not change Tech into a 75% running team, but he will run the ball hard when it is 3^rd and two, or 2^nd and five.

The Red Raiders return enough quality pieces to continue their winning ways.  Quarterback Taylor Potts has apparently beaten out Steven Sheffield for the starting position.  The two combined for 4,659 passing yards and 36 touchdowns last year.  Whoever starts at quarterback will have nearly every receiver from last season back for more.  Detron Lewis and Alexander Torres lead the way.  Running backs should get more carries in the new system, and Baron Batch has the ability to top 1,000 yards.  He scored 14 touchdowns on just 168 carries last year, and he caught 57 passes out of the backfield.  The offensive line is the only worry.  Tuberville likes quicker, less bulky blockers, but he inherits a couple of 350-pound stationary blockers.

Like many other teams, Tech is switching to the 3-4 defense.  With just one returning defensive line starter, that is a good thing.  Nose tackle Coby Whitlock has the skills to cause havoc in the trenches.  Linebackers Brian Duncan and Bront Bird are strong run-stoppers and very good pass defenders.  The one weakness with the front seven is in pass rushing.  There doesn’t look like there is a competent sack machine in the lot.  That could hurt the secondary, which is the strength of this side.  Free Safety Cody Davis was a 1^st Team Freshman All-American last year.

Tuberville is used to winning, and he should guide the Red Raiders back to a bowl.  They could pick up an upset along the way and play spoiler.  By the way, that Cincinnati basketball team fared okay with the change to Ed Jucker.  The Bearcats won the next two National Championships and came within a minute of winning a third in a row.

Coming Tomorrow: The Big Ten started all the conference shuffling and only added one team—to this point.  Find out if there will be any shuffling at the top of the conference standings and whether Rich Rodriguez can keep his job.