Mountain West Conference Preview

The Mountain West Conference is the only Group of 5 league that didn’t have realignment issues in the past 12 months. Rumors abound that Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State could be on the radar screen with either the Pac-12 or Big 12 Conferences, but those are just rumors for now.

The MWC has enjoyed quite a bit of success in the last decade. Last year, eight MWC teams earned bowl bids. Two of the bowl games were cancelled due to Covid, but in the six bowl games played, MWC teams went 5-1. In the history of this league, MWC teams have won 57% of their bowl games. Only the SEC and the Sun Belt have better bowl game winning percentages in that time.

2022 should be another banner year for the league. Three teams have a chance to compete for the lone New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid.

Mountain West PiRate Ratings

Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.0	104.9	106.9	105.9
Air Force	100.9	100.8	102.3	101.3
Utah St.	95.4	95.8	96.6	95.9
Colorado St.	88.5	89.8	89.0	89.1
Wyoming	83.9	86.6	85.0	85.2
New Mexico	80.3	81.0	79.0	80.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.2	102.5	104.5	103.4
San Diego St.	97.4	97.4	97.8	97.6
Nevada	87.0	89.1	86.8	87.6
U N L V	88.4	85.9	88.0	87.5
San Jose St.	86.8	87.2	87.9	87.3
Hawaii	78.5	80.0	79.3	79.2
MWC	91.4	91.7	91.9	91.7

Mountain West Preseason Media Poll

		Votes
#	Mountain	1st Place	Overall
1	Boise St.	14	151
2	Air Force	10	136
3	Utah St.	3	122
4	Colorado St.	1	90
5	Wyoming	0	60
6	New Mexico	0	29
#	West	1st Place	Overall
1	Fresno St.	20	160
2	San Diego St.	8	148
3	San Jose St.	0	105
4	Nevada	0	66
5	UNLV	0	58
6	Hawaii	0	51

The PiRate Rating are designed to be used for the next week of football games and not meant to be used to predict won-loss records. Nevertheless, here are the projected won-loss records.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

Mountain	Conf	Overall
Boise St.	8-0	10-3
Air Force	6-2	10-2
Utah St.	6-2	8-4
Colorado St.	3-5	5-7
Wyoming	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	0-8	2-10
West	Conf	Overall
Fresno St.	7-1	10-3
San Diego St.	6-2	9-3
San Jose St.	4-4	6-6
UNLV	3-5	5-7
Nevada	2-6	5-7
Hawaii	0-8	1-12

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Wednesday, March 23, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Texas A&M	Wake Forest	2.5
BYU	Washington St.	2.5
UNC Wilmington	Middle Tennessee	-0.1
Fresno St.	Youngstown St.	2.5
Southern Utah	Portland	2.5

PiRate Ratings College Football For August 28

Monday, August 23, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Date:	August 28, 2021
Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Illinois	Nebraska	-3.8	-4.0	-3.4
UCLA	Hawaii	19.7	20.4	19.9
New Mexico St.	UTEP	-4.5	-4.7	-5.3
Fresno St.	Connecticut	20.2	21.1	26.5

FBS vs. FCS

FBS	FCS	PiRate
San Jose St.	Southern Utah	23.8

It’s called Week 0. Four FBS college football games will kick off the 2021 season. Included in the quartet of games is a Big Ten conference game with an old Big Ten coach returning to a new Big Ten school to face another coach that is sitting on a very hot seat.

On the West Coast, Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins host Hawaii, and a good showing with no injuries could set the Bruins up for a potential upset of LSU next week.

If you have followed our site so far this year, you have now seen the preseason ratings and predictions for all 130 FBS teams. Here are those ratings in full.

The PiRate Ratings for August 23

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	130.2
2	Oklahoma	128.1
3	Georgia	125.2
4	Iowa St.	124.8
5	Clemson	122.2
6	Ohio St.	121.9
7	U S C	119.4
8	Florida	118.2
9	Texas A&M	118.1
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Miami (Fla.)	116.9
12	Cincinnati	116.5
13	Auburn	116.1
14	T C U	116.0
15	Wisconsin	115.9
16	Texas	115.6
17	Indiana	115.5
18	Ole Miss	113.3
19	Arizona St.	113.1
20	Oklahoma St.	113.1
21	Penn St.	113.1
22	Iowa	112.8
23	Oregon	112.5
24	West Virginia	112.3
25	L S U	112.1
26	Washington	112.1
27	Utah	111.9
28	U C L A	110.5
29	Notre Dame	110.2
30	Mississippi St.	110.1
31	Arkansas	109.5
32	BYU	109.2
33	Louisiana	109.2
34	Coastal Carolina	108.4
35	Wake Forest	107.7
36	Kentucky	107.4
37	Maryland	107.2
38	Oregon St.	106.9
39	Missouri	106.4
40	Minnesota	106.1
41	NC State	106.1
42	Northwestern	105.8
43	Colorado	105.7
44	Liberty	105.5
45	Virginia Tech	105.3
46	Boston College	105.2
47	Michigan	104.9
48	Baylor	104.5
49	Kansas St.	104.4
50	Tennessee	104.0
51	Boise St.	103.9
52	Purdue	103.7
53	Florida St.	103.5
54	Nebraska	103.2
55	Michigan St.	103.0
56	Stanford	103.0
57	UCF	102.8
58	Virginia	102.7
59	Washington St.	102.5
60	Louisville	102.1
61	Texas Tech	101.9
62	Appalachian St.	101.0
63	South Carolina	100.8
64	Houston	100.7
65	San Jose St.	100.3
66	Pittsburgh	100.2
67	San Diego St.	100.2
68	Tulsa	100.1
69	Army	100.0
70	Miami (Ohio)	99.7
71	Central Michigan	99.7
72	Tulane	99.0
73	Nevada	98.8
74	Wyoming	98.5
75	California	98.4
76	Georgia Tech	98.2
77	Buffalo	98.0
78	Ball St.	97.4
79	Toledo	96.7
80	Air Force	96.5
81	Georgia St.	96.5
82	Illinois	96.4
83	Fresno St.	95.3
84	East Carolina	95.3
85	U A B	95.2
86	SMU	95.0
87	Rutgers	95.0
88	Arizona	94.6
89	Hawaii	94.6
90	U T S A	93.9
91	Ohio	93.5
92	Marshall	93.4
93	Troy	93.4
94	Memphis	93.2
95	Syracuse	92.9
96	Kent St.	91.7
97	Georgia Southern	91.6
98	Eastern Michigan	91.4
99	South Alabama	91.2
100	Western Michigan	91.0
101	USF	90.4
102	Navy	90.3
103	Vanderbilt	90.1
104	Arkansas St.	89.9
105	Duke	89.8
106	Colorado St.	89.0
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Florida Atlantic	87.7
109	Northern Illinois	87.5
110	Rice	87.1
111	Louisiana Tech	86.5
112	Utah St.	85.8
113	New Mexico	85.7
114	Kansas	85.4
115	U N L V	84.9
116	Southern Miss.	84.4
117	Middle Tennessee	83.7
118	Western Kentucky	82.7
119	North Texas	81.7
120	Temple	81.6
121	Akron	79.8
122	Charlotte	79.5
123	Florida Int’l.	79.0
124	Connecticut	76.7
125	U T E P	76.0
126	UL-Monroe	75.6
127	UMass	73.1
128	Old Dominion	71.4
129	Bowling Green	70.8
130	New Mexico St.	69.7

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	116.3	115.3	118.0	116.5
UCF	102.5	101.2	104.8	102.8
Houston	101.1	99.5	101.6	100.7
Tulsa	100.2	100.3	99.7	100.1
Tulane	98.8	97.5	100.6	99.0
East Carolina	95.3	94.3	96.2	95.3
SMU	94.3	95.4	95.4	95.0
Memphis	92.4	92.8	94.3	93.2
USF	91.0	89.7	90.6	90.4
Navy	90.8	90.0	90.3	90.3
Temple	80.6	82.4	81.9	81.6
AAC Averages	96.7	96.2	97.6	96.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.9	121.5	124.0	122.2
Wake Forest	108.0	106.7	108.3	107.7
NC State	106.5	105.8	105.9	106.1
Boston College	104.7	105.3	105.7	105.2
Florida St.	103.4	103.6	103.5	103.5
Louisville	101.7	101.4	103.2	102.1
Syracuse	93.7	93.1	92.1	92.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.4	116.7	119.9	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	117.1	116.1	117.7	116.9
Virginia Tech	106.4	104.9	104.7	105.3
Virginia	102.1	104.1	101.8	102.7
Pittsburgh	99.8	100.9	100.1	100.2
Georgia Tech	98.0	98.3	98.3	98.2
Duke	89.7	91.2	88.5	89.8
ACC Averages	104.9	105.0	105.3	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	129.3	126.7	128.2	128.1
Iowa St.	125.3	123.5	125.6	124.8
T C U	116.6	115.1	116.3	116.0
Texas	116.7	114.5	115.6	115.6
Oklahoma St.	113.5	113.2	112.5	113.1
West Virginia	113.8	112.0	111.1	112.3
Baylor	104.9	104.8	103.8	104.5
Kansas St.	104.9	104.7	103.5	104.4
Texas Tech	102.0	102.8	100.8	101.9
Kansas	88.1	85.6	82.5	85.4
Big 12 Averages	111.5	110.3	110.0	110.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	121.1	121.3	123.2	121.9
Indiana	114.9	115.0	116.4	115.5
Penn St.	111.7	112.8	114.6	113.1
Maryland	108.7	106.9	105.8	107.2
Michigan	104.3	105.1	105.3	104.9
Michigan St.	103.5	103.0	102.5	103.0
Rutgers	94.1	96.3	94.5	95.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.2	115.2	117.3	115.9
Iowa	112.3	111.6	114.5	112.8
Minnesota	104.6	106.1	107.6	106.1
Northwestern	105.8	105.8	105.8	105.8
Purdue	103.6	102.9	104.5	103.7
Nebraska	102.8	103.4	103.3	103.2
Illinois	96.0	96.4	96.9	96.4
Big Ten Averages	107.0	107.3	108.0	107.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	76.3	77.2	74.4	76.0
CUSA Averages	84.1	84.8	84.4	84.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	108.8	110.6	111.2	110.2
BYU	109.2	108.2	110.3	109.2
Liberty	104.3	105.6	106.5	105.5
Army	100.0	99.8	100.2	100.0
Connecticut	77.4	78.6	74.2	76.7
UMass	74.8	74.0	70.5	73.1
New Mexico St.	70.3	71.1	67.6	69.7
Indep. Averages	92.1	92.6	91.5	92.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	101.9	99.2	98.1	99.7
Buffalo	98.5	97.5	97.9	98.0
Ohio	92.2	94.4	94.0	93.5
Kent St.	91.3	93.4	90.5	91.7
Akron	81.8	79.6	78.1	79.8
Bowling Green	71.6	72.1	68.8	70.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.5	99.1	99.5	99.7
Ball St.	98.4	98.3	95.5	97.4
Toledo	97.5	96.7	95.8	96.7
Eastern Michigan	93.1	91.2	89.8	91.4
Western Michigan	91.2	91.6	90.1	91.0
Northern Illinois	89.3	87.0	86.1	87.5
MAC Averages	92.3	91.7	90.4	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.9	103.3	104.3	103.9
Wyoming	97.7	98.4	99.5	98.5
Air Force	96.4	96.3	96.9	96.5
Colorado St.	88.8	88.8	89.3	89.0
Utah St.	85.6	86.6	85.2	85.8
New Mexico	85.8	86.2	85.2	85.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Jose St.	100.8	101.1	99.0	100.3
San Diego St.	100.6	99.9	100.2	100.2
Nevada	98.4	99.7	98.4	98.8
Fresno St.	93.7	95.7	96.7	95.3
Hawaii	94.8	94.1	94.7	94.6
U N L V	85.8	84.3	84.6	84.9
MWC Averages	94.4	94.5	94.5	94.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.0	112.4	114.1	112.5
Washington	110.9	112.4	112.9	112.1
Oregon St.	106.7	106.7	107.3	106.9
Stanford	102.6	103.9	102.4	103.0
Washington St.	102.3	103.2	102.1	102.5
California	95.7	100.5	99.0	98.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	118.8	118.4	120.9	119.4
Arizona St.	112.4	113.5	113.6	113.1
Utah	111.8	112.1	111.8	111.9
U C L A	110.5	110.5	110.6	110.5
Colorado	106.4	105.8	104.9	105.7
Arizona	95.2	94.5	94.0	94.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.0	107.8	107.8	107.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	124.8	124.5	126.3	125.2
Florida	117.0	119.4	118.1	118.2
Kentucky	106.7	108.8	106.8	107.4
Missouri	106.2	106.9	106.2	106.4
Tennessee	104.1	103.1	104.6	104.0
South Carolina	101.1	101.0	100.4	100.8
Vanderbilt	90.9	89.9	89.6	90.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.4	128.8	131.3	130.2
Texas A&M	117.4	118.3	118.6	118.1
Auburn	116.4	115.2	116.6	116.1
Ole Miss	113.3	113.3	113.2	113.3
L S U	111.0	112.4	112.8	112.1
Mississippi St.	110.2	110.4	109.7	110.1
Arkansas	110.1	109.9	108.5	109.5
SEC Averages	111.4	111.6	111.6	111.5
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.2	106.4	109.6	108.4
Appalachian St.	100.5	100.0	102.5	101.0
Georgia St.	97.0	96.2	96.3	96.5
Troy	93.1	93.4	93.7	93.4
Georgia Southern	91.7	92.1	91.2	91.6
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	109.8	107.6	110.4	109.2
South Alabama	91.6	91.5	90.6	91.2
Arkansas St.	89.8	91.0	88.8	89.9
Texas St.	89.4	86.7	87.2	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.4	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.8	94.1	94.4	94.5

Conference Ratings
1	Southeastern	111.5
2	Big 12	110.6
3	Pac-12	107.5
4	Big Ten	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Sun Belt	94.5
8	Mountain West	94.5
9	Independents	92.1
10	Mid-American	91.4
11	Conference USA	84.4

2019 Mountain West Conference Football Preview

In the first decade of the 21st Century, the Mountain West Conference was without a doubt the best of the non power leagues.  Slowly, some of the best programs left the league.  Utah went to the Pac-12; TCU left for the Big 12; Brigham Young copied the Notre Dame formula and went independent in football, while joining the West Coast Conference in other sports.  Boise State joined when BYU left, but the Broncos’ best teams were in the old Western Athletic Conference.

You can see this league beginning to reload.  Boise State has begun to recruit like they did in Chris Peterson’s era at the Field of Blue.  Under former Cal coach Jeff Tedford, Fresno State has returned to prominence.  Utah State, Wyoming, San Diego State, Hawaii, and Nevada have gotten a bit stronger in recent years.  Air Force has been down in the last couple of years, but the Falcons have the experience to rebound this year.

With the new strength in so many locations, the unfortunate reality is that it is highly unlikely that any one team will dominate the others and make a run for the New Year’s Six Bowl that goes to the top-rated Group of Five Conference team.

Both divisions should see competitive races this year, and when November comes,  at least five teams should still have a legitimate chance to make the conference championship game.

 

Here is how the Mountain West Conference media voted in the preseason poll

Mountain West Conference Media Poll
Mountain Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Boise St.	15	120
2	Utah St.	6	108
3	Air Force	0	73
4	Wyoming	0	66
5	Colorado St.	0	52
6	New Mexico	0	22
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Fresno St.	17	122
2	San Diego St.	3	106
3	Nevada	0	74
4	Hawaii	1	67
5	UNLV	0	51
6	San Jose St.	0	21
	Championship Game Winner
	None Chosen

The PiRate Ratings offer a little bit of a variation from the Media Poll.

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Mountain West
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah St.	105.4	104.3	106.8	105.5
Boise St.	105.0	104.3	105.3	104.9
Air Force	96.5	98.0	97.3	97.3
Wyoming	94.4	96.6	95.2	95.4
New Mexico	83.0	86.3	82.4	83.9
Colorado St.	79.2	84.2	79.3	80.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	99.8	100.2	100.6	100.2
Hawaii	95.5	97.7	94.8	96.0
San Diego St.	94.4	96.2	94.1	94.9
Nevada	92.9	93.9	92.5	93.1
U N L V	85.8	88.9	85.9	86.9
San Jose St.	83.6	86.0	82.7	84.1
MWC Averages	93.0	94.7	93.1	93.6

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
Mountain Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Utah St.	7-1	10-3*
2	Boise St.	7-1	9-3
3	Air Force	5-3	7-5
4	Wyoming	4-4	6-6
5	New Mexico	1-7	3-9
6	Colorado St.	0-8	1-11
West Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Hawaii	6-2	9-5
2	Fresno St.	6-2	8-4
3	San Diego St.	5-3	7-5
4	Nevada	4-4	6-6
5	UNLV	2-6	3-9
6	San Jose St.	1-7	2-10
*	Utah State picked to win MWC Championship Game

 

Bowl Predictions
Las Vegas	Utah St.
Arizona	Fresno St.
Armed Forces	Boise St.
Idaho Potato	Air Force
New Mexico	San Diego St.
Alternate Bowl
Cheez-it	Hawaii
Also Bowl Eligible
Nevada
Wyoming

 

Coaches That Could Move to Power 5 Conferences

Bryan Harsin, Boise St.

Craig Bohl, Wyoming

Nick Rolovich, Hawaii

Jay Norvell, Nevada

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Mike Bobo, Colorado St.

Bob Davie, New Mexico

Brent Brennan, San Jose St.

Tony Sanchez, UNLV

 

Top Quarterbacks

Jordan Love, Utah St.

Cole McDonald, Hawaii

Armani Rogers, UNLV

 

Best Offense

Utah St.

Boise St.

Hawaii

 

Best Defense

Utah St.

Boise St.

Fresno St.

 

Coming Tomorrow: The FBS Independents, including Notre Dame and BYU.

 

 

 

 

2015 Mountain West Conference Preview

There was a time when the Mountain West Conference graded out to be a little stronger than the old Big East Conference and was clearly stronger overall than today’s American Conference.  There were a couple seasons where the league was on par with the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Of course, there was a time when both TCU and Boise State were members of this conference, and there was a time that BYU was a member as well.

In 2015, the MWC may be a bit too weak for the champion to get into the playoff mix, but we believe the champion of this league stands an excellent chance to be 13-0 when the committee decides who is in and who is out.  If two of the Big Six conferences produce two or even three-loss champions, there will be a small chance that a 13-0 MWC team could be a surprise #4 seed.

It’s been five seasons since Boise State last finished the year undefeated.  In 2009, The Broncos defeated Oregon at the start of the year and 12-0 TCU in the Fiesta Bowl at the end of the year to finish fourth in the nation overall.  This was the second time the Broncos finished undefeated, having first pulled it of in 2006 when once again, BSU won the Fiesta Bowl in a thrilling finish over Oklahoma.  The 2006 team defeated Oregon State early in the season.

This year, Boise State opens at home against Washington.  In week two, they play at BYU.  An October 16 game at Utah State is the only other possible bump in the 2015 road, but this team is considerably stronger than the 12-2 team that won another Fiesta Bowl last year.  The Broncos were the first of the lone guaranteed non-Big Six conference team to be selected to a Big Six Bowl.  Could they become the first non-Big Six school to earn a playoff spot?

We don’t believe the selection committee will take the Broncos, but we do believe Boise will run the table for the third time in a decade and probably be rewarded with yet another trip to the Fiesta Bowl.

There is only one fly in the ointment.  Boise State is loaded on both sides of the ball, but the one place that is a question mark is at quarterback.  Ryan Finley isn’t totally raw, having seen brief action as a Freshman last year, but 27 career passes is not enough to make a case that he might be the next Kellen Moore.

Utah State has gone bowling the last four years, two under former coach Gary Andersen and two under current coach Matt Wells.  Who knows how good this program could have been if quarterback Chuckie Keeton could have finished a season.  He has suffered numerous injuries in his time in Logan, and he has never played a full schedule.  He returns for one final try, and if he can stay on the field, the Aggies pose the only legitimate threat to Boise State.  The loss of Jo Jo Natson may hamper their chances, but USU still has Hunter Sharp at Wide Receiver and LaJuan Hunt at running back, so there is talent at the skill positions.  Inside linebacker Nick Vigil has all the tools, and he will anchor the division’s top defense.

After the top two, the drop to number three is steep.  Colorado State lost the top quarterback in the league in Garrett Grayson; one of the top running backs in Dee Hart; and two of the top defensive players in the league in Aaron Davis and Max Morgan.  Oh, and they lost all-American coach Jim McElwain to Florida.  New coach Mike Bobo comes from the SEC just like his predecessor.  As the long time offensive coordinator at Georgia, Bobo’s Bulldog offenses were balanced with power running games and vertical passing games.  In his first year in Ft. Collins, he inherits talent not all that equipped to suit his style.  He will not see a Nick Chubb or Aaron Murray on the field at Hughes Stadium.  He also will not see his team playing on the field after November 28.  The Rams draw San Diego State and Fresno State out of the Pacific Division, and it looks like a drop under .500 this year.

Air Force has been up and down in recent years for Coach Troy Calhoun.  The Falcons were up last year, winning 10 games, including an upset of Boise State.  This year, the Falcons will be down due to a rebuilding defense and an offense that must break in a new quarterback.  Down won’t be a total disappointment, as we believe the Falcons will find a way to break even and earn a bowl bid.

Our pick for surprise team in the league this year is New Mexico.  The Lobos have been down and out since former coach Rocky Long was let go in 2008.  Following three consecutive 1-11 seasons that included a loss to Sam Houston, former Notre Dame head coach Bob Davie was brought to Albuquerque to right the ship.  This is his fourth season following 4-9, 3-9, and 4-8 seasons where the Lobos ran the ball better than any team in the league, topping 300 yards per game all three years.  This year, Davie has experienced talent throughout the roster, and with just a little improvement on the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico could win the close games and earn its first bowl bid since 2007.

There was a time when Wyoming was the class of the Rockies.  The Cowboys were the western Cradle of Coaches for years producing the likes of Bob Devaney, Pat Dye, Fred Akers, Joe Tiller, and Bowden Wyatt, all of whom ascended to big time programs and took teams to conference championships and New Year’s Day Bowls.  As of late, the pickings have been slim in Laramie.  Joe Glenn and Dave Christensen both had great promise but neither turned the tide.  Craig Bohl brought a similar resume to the Rockies as Glenn, having won big at North Dakota State, but his first year in Laramie was no different than recent editions.  This year’s team may make last year’s 4-8 team look like a success as graduation has taken a heavy toll.

The Pacific Division race should be a little more competitive than the Mountain Division.  Four teams have realistic chances to compete for the division title, while a fifth has the potential to get into the race.  It’s not that this side of the league is powerful; the parity is owed more to sub-par rosters than anything else.

San Diego State has been flirting with a division title for five years, and this looks like the year where the Aztecs are the favorite to finally get over the hump.  Coach Rocky Long’s defense is the best in the division and maybe the best in the entire league, and he returns 14 of his top 18 tacklers from last year.  If his offense can maintain the competency of recent years, SDSU could win double digit games for the first time since 1977.

Nevada exploded with a 13-1 record in 2010 and has since returned to mediocrity with three 7-6 seasons wrapped around a 4-8 season.  Third year coach Brian Polian must polish a new quarterback to replace Cody Fajardo, who led the Wolf Pack in addition to his passing skills, led the Wolf Pack in rushing.  The secondary must be rebuilt as well, and in a pass-happy league, a weak secondary can be a recipe for disaster.  However, both sides of the line of scrimmage are stocked with quality brutes, so we believe Nevada will stay in the hunt for another bowl bid.

Fresno State is in a similar boat as Nevada.  Coach Tim DeRuyter must replace his starting quarterback for the second consecutive season, but replacing Brian Burrell will be easier than replacing Derek Carr.  There is a question at the moment concerning the possible starting quarterback this year.  Former West Virginia signal caller Ford Childress is the most talented QB on the roster and should be the starter, but there are questions concerning his eligiblity status.  He is currently practicing with the squad, but there is a chance he will not be eligible to play until the second week of the season.  If Childress is okayed to play, the Bulldogs immediately move up a notch as SDSU’s top contender.  Without him, FSU may have to rely on a freshman or less talented sophomore.

San Jose State fell back in the pack last year, suffering through a 3-9 season which included a season-ending six game losing streak.  Third year coach Ron Carragher returns 10 starters on offense, but the attack troops suffered a mighty blow when freshman phenom and expected starting wide receiver Kanya Bell was dismissed following his arrest on domestic battery charges.  Many of his teammates disagreed with the dismissal, citing that there could be more to the story, and this sounds like it created possible dissension within the ranks.  If so, Carragher faces a tough uphill climb to keep the team believing in his leadership.  If the season heads south early, Carragher could find himself on a hot seat in San Jose.

If there is to be a surprise team in the Pacific Division, we believe it will be Hawaii.  Fourth year coach Norm Chow welcomes the best new quarterback in the league.  Former USC Trojan Max Wittek could be the missing ingredient Chow has needed to run his complicated offense.  The Warriors failed to complete 50% of their passes last year, and Wittek is a major upgrade.  The UH defense was vastly improved last year, and if the offense can improve in the same manner, then Hawaii could compete for that elusive seventh win and get a 14th game in December in Honolulu.  Road games in September at Ohio State and Wisconsin are the big issues.  Not that Hawaii has a chance of upsetting either team, but if injuries in those games prevent the roster from being near full strength in November, when the Warriors have a very favorable schedule, there will be no chance to get to 7-6.

What do you do if you are a first year college head coach, and you inherit a 2-11 team that gave up more than 500 yards per game and barely beat Northern Colorado by a point the year before?  What do you do when said team was decimated by graduation losses and appears to be considerably weaker than the 2-11 team you inherited?  That’s what first year UNLV coach Tony Sanchez faces in Las Vegas.  Sanchez has zero head coaching experience in college football.  He only has one year of any college football experience, and that came a generation ago when he was a graduate assistant at New Mexico State.  Sanchez has been the Knute Rockne of high school coaches in the Silver State.  He never lost a conference game at Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas, and his annual won-loss records were 15-0, 13-2, 16-0, 13-1, 13-2, and 15-0, winning the Nevada State Championship every year.  Those five losses in six seasons will be eclipsed in little more than half a season this year, because that Gorman team had more future FBS all-star players than this UNLV team, and Sanchez cannot play rising high school junior Tate Martell at quarterback.

Let’s take a look at how the MWC Media predicted the standings for this season.

Mountain West Conference Media Poll
Pos.	Team	1st Place	Total
Mountain Division
1	Boise St.	28	177
2	Utah St.	2	150
3	Colorado St.	0	108
4	Air Force	0	90
5	Wyoming	0	64
6	New Mexico	0	41
West Division
1	San Diego St.	27	177
2	Fresno St.	3	141
3	Nevada	0	113
4	San Jose St.	0	91
5	Hawaii	0	70
6	UNLV	0	38

Here is the Media’s preseason All-MWS team.

Conference USA Preseason All-Conference Team
Offense	Player		School
Quarterback	Chuckie Keeton		Utah St.
Running Back	Donnel Pumphrey		San Diego St.
Running Back	Martez Waller		Fresno St.
Wide Receiver	Rashard Higgins		Colorado St.
Wide Receiver	Devonte Boyd		UNLV
Tight End	Steven Walker		Colorado St.
Offensive Line	Marcus Henry		Boise St.
Offensive Line	Rees Odhiambo		Boise St.
Offensive Line	Alex Fifita		Fresno St.
Offensive Line	Ben Clarke		Hawaii
Offensive Line	Pearce Slater		San Diego St.
Defense	Player		School
Defensive Line	Eddie Yarbrough		Wyoming
Defensive Line	Alex Hansen		Air Force
Defensive Line	Kamalei Correa		Boise St.
Defensive Line	Ian Seau		Nevada
Linebacker	Tanner Vallejo		Boise St.
Linebacker	Kyler Fackrell		Utah St.
Linebacker	Nick Vigil		Utah St.
Defensive Back	Weston Steelhammer		Air Force
Defensive Back	Donte Deayon		Boise St.
Defensive Back	Darian Thompson		Boise St.
Defensive Back	Damontae Kazee		San Diego St.
Special Teams	Player		School
Punter	Alex Boy		Nevada
Kicker	Donny Hageman		San Diego St.
Return Specialist	Carols Wiggins		New Mexico

Here are the Preseason PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings along with the averages of the three.

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	114.5	108.6	114.1	112.4
Utah St.	99.7	98.9	100.0	99.5
Colorado St.	95.4	92.9	93.4	93.9
Air Force	91.1	96.6	90.1	92.6
New Mexico	90.7	91.8	90.2	90.9
Wyoming	84.3	86.6	82.5	84.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	96.3	102.6	98.0	99.0
Nevada	91.7	96.6	91.0	93.1
Fresno St.	89.3	98.1	88.7	92.0
San Jose St.	89.3	92.9	89.2	90.5
Hawaii	87.4	91.6	87.7	88.9
UNLV	76.7	79.6	76.5	77.6
MWC Averages	92.2	94.7	91.8	92.9

And, here are the PiRate Ratings Won-Loss predictions and bowl projections.

PiRate Ratings Predicted Records
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall	Bowl
Mountain Division
1	Boise St.	8-0	13-0 *	Big Six
2	Utah St.	6-2	8-4	Las Vegas
3	New Mexico	4-4	7-5	New Mexico
4	Air Force	4-4	6-6	Arizona #
5	Colorado St.	3-5	5-7	None
6	Wyoming	1-7	3-9	None
West Division
1	San Diego St.	7-1	9-4 ^	Poinsettia
2	Nevada	5-3	7-5	Idaho Potato
3	Fresno St.	4-4	5-7	None
4	Hawaii	3-5	5-8	None
5	San Jose St.	3-5	4-8	None
6	UNLV	0-8	1-11	None
*	Wins Title Game
^	Loses Title Game
#	The Arizona Bowl does not have a sponsor and may be postponed

Coming Next: The American Athletic Conference

2013 Mountain West Conference Football Preview

2013 Mountain West Conference Preview

 

The Mountain West Conference expands to 12 teams this year and divides into two divisions with a championship game to be held on December 7 at the home field on the division winner with the higher BCS ranking.

 

The divisional split here is geographical in an east/west split, but the divisions are named, Mountain and West.  All Mountain teams reside in cities in the Mountain Time Zone, while all West Teams resided in cities in the Pacific Time Zone, or in the case of Hawaii, in the Hawaii Time Zone (2 hours behind the Pacific Time Zone).

 

Last year, Fresno St., San Diego St., and Boise St. tied for the conference title.  Throw in two new teams (both 11-2) that finished in the top 25 in last year’s final poll, and the league should be stronger this season, but not as strong as when TCU was in the league.

 

We expect a little changing of the guard this season.  We suspect Boise State to experience a rebuilding season and have their worst season in a decade.  It is the first time our ratings have not listed BSU as the top-rated team in their league since 2005.

 

This league has produced multiple BCS Bowl qualifiers, and we believe there is a good chance that one more team could challenge for a spot this season.  An October 26 road game against San Diego St. and a November 29 road game against San Jose St. and a win in the inaugural MWC title game are the three crucial games that must be victorious for Fresno St.  If the Bulldogs win those three games, they should be 13-0.  Our ratings have FSU favored in every game.

 

Additions: San Jose St. and Utah St. move from the now football defunct WAC.

 

Departures: None

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

 

Mountain West Conference Mountain Division Team Conf. Overall PiRate Mean Bias Utah St. 0-0 0-0 100.9 92.5 101.1 Boise St. 0-0 0-0 100.0 102.3 101.7 Colorado St. 0-0 0-0 90.3 94.4 90.8 Wyoming 0-0 0-0 85.8 85.6 85.9 Air Force 0-0 0-0 81.3 87.7 81.2 New Mexico 0-0 0-0 78.8 83.9 79.4             West Division Team Conf. Overall PiRate Mean Bias Fresno St. 0-0 0-0 104.0 101.4 105.0 San Jose St. 0-0 0-0 100.3 94.9 100.7 San Diego St. 0-0 0-0 98.6 98.3 98.8 Nevada 0-0 0-0 88.5 96.2 89.5 U N L V 0-0 0-0 85.7 92.0 86.3 Hawaii 0-0 0-0 82.0 82.4 82.4             League Averages     91.4 92.6 91.9
Official Pre-season Media Poll
Mountain Division     Pos Team Points 1st Place 1 Boise St. 245 40 2 Utah St. 204 1 3 Air Force 143 0 4 Wyoming 116 0 5 Colorado St. 90 0 6 New Mexico 63 0         West Division     Pos Team Points 1st Place 1 Fresno St. 243 39 2 San Diego St. 181 1 3 San Jose St. 172 1 4 Nevada 135 0 5 U N L V 71 0 6 Hawaii 59 0

 

2013 MOUNTAIN WEST FOOTBALL PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM
Offense
QB	Derek Carr *	Sr.	Fresno State
WR	Davante Adams *	So.	Fresno State
WR	Noel Grigsby	Sr.	San José State
RB	Kasey Carrier **	Sr.	New Mexico
RB	Adam Muema **	Jr.	San Diego State
OL	Charles Leno **	Sr.	Boise State
OL	Matt Paradis *	Sr.	Boise State
OL	Weston Richburg	Sr.	Colorado State
OL	Austin Wentworth *	Sr.	Fresno State
OL	Tyler Larsen	Sr.	Utah State
TE	Marcel Jensen	Sr.	Fresno State
Defense
DL	Demarcus Lawrence *	Jr.	Boise State
DL	Tyeler Davison *	Jr.	Fresno State
DL	Brock Hekking **	Jr.	Nevada
DL	Travis Raciti	Jr.	San José State
LB	Jake Fely **	Jr.	San Diego State
LB	Keith Smith	Sr.	San José State
LB	Kyler Fackrell	So.	Utah State
DB	L.J. Jones	Sr.	Fresno State
DB	Derron Smith *	Jr.	Fresno State
DB	Nat Berhe **	Sr.	San Diego State
DB	Bené Benwikere	Sr.	San José State
Specialists
P	Ben Skaer	Sr.	New Mexico
PK	Austin Lopez	So.	San José State
Ret.	Chase Clayton	Jr.	New Mexico
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:			Derek Carr, Sr., QB, Fresno State
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:			Derron Smith, Jr., DB, Fresno State
Preseason Spcl Teams Player of the Year:			Chase Clayton, Jr., KR, New Mexico
* – member of the 2012 All-Mountain West first team.
** – member of the 2012 All-Mountain West second team.

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Mountain Division

Team	Utah St. Aggies
Head Coach	Matt Wells
Colors	Navy and White
City	Logan, UT
2012 Record
Conference	6-0 (in WAC)
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	63
Run Defense	75
Pass Defense	61
Ratings
PiRate	100.9
Mean	92.5
Bias	101.1
Rankings
PiRate	53
Mean	93
Bias	50
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	8-5 (Lose MWC Championship Game)

 

 

Team	Boise St. Broncos
Head Coach	Chris Petersen
Colors	Blue and Orange
City	Boise, ID
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	59
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	63
Pass Defense	69
Ratings
PiRate	100.0
Mean	102.3
Bias	101.7
Rankings
PiRate	58
Mean	49
Bias	47
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Colorado St. Rams
Head Coach	Jim McElwain
Colors	Forest Green and Gold
City	Ft. Collins, CO
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	55
Pass Offense	55
Run Defense	51
Pass Defense	59
Ratings
PiRate	90.3
Mean	94.4
Bias	90.8
Rankings
PiRate	91
Mean	86
Bias	91
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Wyoming Cowboys
Head Coach	Dave Christensen
Colors	Brown and Gold
City	Laramie, WY
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	41
Pass Offense	69
Run Defense	40
Pass Defense	68
Ratings
PiRate	85.8
Mean	85.6
Bias	85.9
Rankings
PiRate	103
Mean	114
Bias	105
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	5-7

 

 

Team	Air Force Falcons
Head Coach	Troy Calhoun
Colors	Blue and Silver
City	Colorado Springs, CO
2012 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	6-7
Grades
Run Offense	69
Pass Offense	28
Run Defense	43
Pass Defense	50
Ratings
PiRate	81.3
Mean	87.7
Bias	81.2
Rankings
PiRate	115
Mean	107
Bias	114
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	New Mexico Lobos
Head Coach	Bob Davie
Colors	Cherry and Silver
City	Albuquerque, NM
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	4-9
Grades
Run Offense	66
Pass Offense	26
Run Defense	45
Pass Defense	44
Ratings
PiRate	78.8
Mean	83.8
Bias	79.4
Rankings
PiRate	120
Mean	117
Bias	119
Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

 

Team	Fresno St. Bulldogs
Head Coach	Tim DeRuyter
Colors	Cardinal and Blue
City	Fresno, CA
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense
Pass Offense
Run Defense
Pass Defense
Ratings
PiRate	104.0
Mean	101.4
Bias	105.0
Rankings
PiRate	44
Mean	56
Bias	43
Prediction
Conference	8-0
Overall	13-0 (win MWC title game)

 

 

Team	San Jose St. Spartans
Head Coach	Ron Caragher
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	San Jose
2012 Record
Conference	5-1 (in WAC)
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	39
Pass Offense	83
Run Defense	63
Pass Defense	69
Ratings
PiRate	100.3
Mean	94.9
Bias	100.7
Rankings
PiRate	56
Mean	85
Bias	55
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-3

 

 

Team	San Diego St. Aztecs
Head Coach	Rocky Long
Colors	Red and Black
City	San Diego
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	62
Pass Offense	56
Run Defense	76
Pass Defense	63
Ratings
PiRate	98.6
Mean	98.3
Bias	98.8
Rankings
PiRate	66
Mean	66
Bias	65
Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Nevada Wolf Pack
Head Coach	Brian Polian
Colors	Blue and Silver
City	Reno, NV
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense
Pass Offense
Run Defense
Pass Defense
Ratings
PiRate	88.5
Mean	96.2
Bias	89.5
Rankings
PiRate	97
Mean	80
Bias	96
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	U N L V Rebels
Head Coach	Bobby Hauck
Colors	Scarlet and Gray
City	Las Vegas
2012 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	2-11
Grades
Run Offense	55
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	31
Pass Defense	51
Ratings
PiRate	85.7
Mean	92.0
Bias	86.3
Rankings
PiRate	104
Mean	95
Bias	103
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Head Coach	Norm Chow
Colors	Green, Black, and Silver
City	Honolulu
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	27
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	53
Ratings
PiRate	82.0
Mean	82.4
Bias	82.4
Rankings
PiRate	114
Mean	120
Bias	113
Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	1-11