PiRate Ratings Going Ahead As Planned

Hello to all of our patrons and occasional readers.  The PiRate Ratings are currently going under the preseason compilation for both College and Pro football as if nothing has changed from the past.

Should the season be postponed or other major changes are made, we will do our best to adjust the ratings based on whatever presents itself.

Additionally, we will not participate in any political commentary or make any comments other than mathematical and historical counts.  That means that even though 2020 is an election year, we have chosen to stay out entirely from issuing any electoral vote count predictions and all the House and Senate forecasts.

We want this to be an escape for you to visit to get away from all other outside forces.  We are strongly considering adding a potential tabletop football game like we did several years ago with a “best of” tournament between some of the greatest college football teams of all time, similar to how we did this as a replacement to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, won by the 1968 UCLA Bruins.

Additionally, we are also considering putting a package together where people can send a small payment here, and we will send you the PDF files to print the “best of franchise” NFL and AFL teams between 1960 and 1979 with instructions on how you can cheaply print and have your own tabletop football strategy game to play.  We currently do not have a zip file creator on the PiRate ship.

One more heads up.  WordPress has begun to phase out the original editor, and they may force a new editor to be used, one that is not friendly to pasting tables from our spreadsheet.  If for any reason we find it impossible to paste our spreadsheet tables into this site, we will create a new site and leave the link to that site as the final posting here. Let’s hope we can get through the season without having to make that change.

If all goes according to the norm, expect to see the preseason PiRate College Football Ratings around August 20 and the NFL Football Ratings within hours after the teams make their final cuts the first Saturday in September.

Sincerely

The Captain

Our Unique Way of Compiling our College Retrodictive Ratings

We have been asked by multiple readers to explain a little more in depth how we compile our PiRate Retrodictive ratings and what exactly this rating means.

 

By the way, if you have comments you would like to make, please visit our sister site and use the “contact us” link, at:

http://piratings.webs.com/

There are basically two types of ratings in sports like football and basketball. The first type is Predictive, and this type is used by sports bettors. As the name implies, these ratings are used to attempt to predict the outcomes of the next week of games. If State U has a rating of 106.5, and Tech has a rating of 102.3, then on a neutral field, State would be expected to beat Tech by 4.2 points. Of course, home field advantage could alter this predictive spread by additional points. The regular PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings are predictive in nature. A team that started the season 0-4 and then finished 8-4 might be favored in a bowl over a team that went 11-1, because what the 8-4 team did in its first four games is not as important as what they did in their final games.

Retrodictive ratings or rankings look backward and rate the teams on what they have done to date. What the team did in its first game is just as important as what they did in their most recent game. It is an attempt to rank the teams by their performance on their whole body of work. That 8-4 team would most likely be rated well behind the 11-1 team on the body of work to date.

Our Retrodictive Rankings take considerably more time to compile than our regular PiRate Ratings. First, there are three components to the ranking. The first is rather obvious–wins and losses. The second is also obvious–strength of schedule. The third is well known to many, but you may not realize that in addition to strength of schedule, the strengths of schedule of all the opponents played is vitally important.

As an example, let’s say that Iowa opens the season with a win over Boston College. As the season goes on, Iowa’s rating is influenced by what Boston College does and what all the teams Boston College plays do. So, if Iowa has a bye after that first game, and Boston College proceeds to beat Florida State the following week, Iowa’s rating is going to go up almost as much as Boston College’s rating goes up.

Point differential can be included in retrodictive-style ratings, and we here at the PiRate Ratings have a rather unique way of including the type of score in a team’s wins and losses. It is not an exact science, but we like our version and believe it has merit over standard point differential. Here is a rundown on this process.
What type of win or loss was this game for the team in question? We rate wins and losses as:
A. Blowout
B. Decisive
C. Good
D. Fortunate
E. Tossup

A blowout win does not have to be by 40 points. If a team wins 28-0 and holds their opponent to 150 total yards, this rates as a blowout. If a team led 42-0 at halftime and then won 49-24, it still counts as a blowout. If a team led 24-20 midway through the third quarter and then won 45-20, this will usually not count as a blowout.

A decisive win is one in which the winner would have won this game close to 100% of the time but did not win in such a way that allowed the team to rest its starters for the final 20-25 minutes of the game. A 35-10 win with the winner leading 21-10 and scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter would be one example of a decisive but not blowout win.

A good win is one in which the winner would have probably won 7 to 8 times out of 10 with the same stats generated. A 10-17 point win is often a good win, unless the winner was outgained by more than 100 yards.

A fortunate win is one in which the winner won by 4-9 points but the outcome was always in doubt. In some cases, the winner had stats that looked more like they should have been the loser.

A tossup win is the same as a fortunate win but with the final spread being 1-3 points. All overtime wins count as tossup wins.

The better the win, the more points the winner receives and the loser gives up. If Georgia beats North Carolina 42-14, they receive more points than if they beat the Tar Heels 17-14.

For strength of schedule, we rate each of the 128 FBS teams from 10 to -10 in tenths so that the current top team is ranked as a 10, and the number 128 team is ranked as -10. FCS teams receive a rating of 5.0 to -15.0.

Let’s say that through 4 games, Oklahoma has played teams that currently rate in our strength of schedule as 9.2, 8.6, 5.4, and 1.3 points. The Sooners’ average schedule strength is 6.1. We are not done yet. Now, we have to adjust this number based on the strength of Oklahoma’s opponents’ schedule other than playing the Sooners. So, if that 9.2 strength team played a schedule to date that averages 5.8, and the other three teams played schedules with 4.3, 7.1, and -2.9, Oklahoma’s opponents’ strength of schedules average to 3.6.
Obviously, Oklahoma’s own strength of schedule of 6.1 is worth more than their opponents’ strength of schedule of 3.6, but their schedule strength portion of the equation is lower than 6.1 because of the weaker scheduling of their opponents. In this case, the algorithm we use through 4 games played will lower the overall strength to about 5.3.

We combine the score for the team’s wins and losses with the schedule strength, and it leaves us with a final number between 10 and -10. In actuality, no team approaches these outlier numbers. For instance, this week, Alabama comes in at 8.27 to be number one, while Texas State and Buffalo bring up the rear at -7.59. Because these are not predictive, you cannot use these numbers to predict the outcome of a game should Alabama play Texas State or Buffalo.

Of course, home field advantage is factored into the outcomes of the games. If Georgia beats Clemson between the hedges by a score of 17-14, it does not count as much as if they had defeated the Tigers 17-14 at Howard’s Rock.

We hope that clarifies and not confuses you further.  We are better with numbers than with letters.

PiRate Ratings For Week of September 1-5, 2011

PiRate Ratings—For Games of September 1-5, 2011

 

Is it us, or did this week seem to catch us all by surprise?  It sure feels like there should be another three or four weeks before the season begins.

 

Actually, 45 years ago, the college teams began fall practice around this time and did not play their first game until the Saturday after September 20.  Of course, teams played just 10 games then (some of the Big Ten still played just nine games).

 

With the exception of a few games, most of this week’s opening tilts are real duds.  It could be different if college football took our suggestions and made the opening week of the season a week of bowl classics in lieu of post-season bowl games.

 

See https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/the-great-bowlcott/

 

If the bowls were changed to the pre-season, all of them would become vitally important, since every team would be 0-0.  70 teams could open up the season in one of the 35 bowls, and the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl would be every bit as important as the Orange and Fiesta Bowls.  These games could decide seeding for the post-season 12-team or 16-team playoff.

 

Here are the opening PiRate Ratings for week one of the college football season.  For an brief explanation of how we formulate these ratings, go to:

 

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/08/31/the-pirate-ratings-the-hows-and-whys/

 

 

NCAA Top 25 This Week
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Oklahoma	132.8	0	0
2	Alabama	132.4	0	0
3	TexasA&M	130.6	0	0
4	Stanford	126.4	0	0
5	Oregon	125.6	0	0
6	L S U	124.6	0	0
7	Notre Dame	123.9	0	0
8	FloridaState	123.3	0	0
9	Arkansas	122.7	0	0
10	BoiseState	121.7	0	0
11	South Carolina	121.6	0	0
12	OklahomaState	119.8	0	0
13	Southern Cal	117.2	0	0
14	MississippiState	117.0	0	0
15	Florida	116.8	0	0
16	Missouri	116.7	0	0
17	ArizonaState	116.6	0	0
18	Nebraska	116.4	0	0
19	Wisconsin	116.2	0	0
20	Virginia Tech	116.1	0	0
21	Auburn	115.6	0	0
22	Miami(Fl)	115.2	0	0
23	Michigan	114.8	0	0
24	PennState	113.4	0	0
25	Arizona	113.1	0	0
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
FloridaState	0-0	0-0	123.3
Clemson	0-0	0-0	110.3
BostonCollege	0-0	0-0	109.7
North CarolinaState	0-0	0-0	109.1
Maryland	0-0	0-0	106.5
WakeForest	0-0	0-0	98.5
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	0-0	0-0	116.1
Miami-FL	0-0	0-0	115.2
North Carolina	0-0	0-0	106.8
Duke	0-0	0-0	99.8
Virginia	0-0	0-0	97.9
Georgia Tech	0-0	0-0	97.5

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	0-0	0-0	111.5
Cincinnati	0-0	0-0	108.7
West Virginia	0-0	0-0	106.6
Connecticut	0-0	0-0	102.1
South Florida	0-0	0-0	101.4
Syracuse	0-0	0-0	94.8
Rutgers	0-0	0-0	94.5
Louisville	0-0	0-0	92.2

 

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Wisconsin	0-0	0-0	116.2
PennState	0-0	0-0	113.4
OhioState	0-0	0-0	108.1
Illinois	0-0	0-0	107.8
Purdue	0-0	0-0	101.7
Indiana	0-0	0-0	86.5
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	0-0	0-0	116.4
Michigan	0-0	0-0	114.8
MichiganState	0-0	0-0	113.5
Iowa	0-0	0-0	107.8
Northwestern	0-0	0-0	101.2
Minnesota	0-0	0-0	101.1

 

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	0-0	0-0	132.8
TexasA&M	0-0	0-0	130.6
OklahomaState	0-0	0-0	119.8
Missouri	0-0	0-0	116.7
Texas	0-0	0-0	108.3
TexasTech	0-0	0-0	105.5
Baylor	0-0	0-0	104.0
KansasState	0-0	0-0	101.5
IowaState	0-0	0-0	100.9
Kansas	0-0	0-0	95.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	0-0	0-0	97.0
East Carolina	0-0	0-0	94.8
Central Florida	0-0	0-0	91.9
U A B	0-0	0-0	89.1
Marshall	0-0	0-0	85.8
Memphis	0-0	0-0	72.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	0-0	0-0	103.6
S M U	0-0	0-0	102.0
Houston	0-0	0-0	96.7
Rice	0-0	0-0	89.7
Tulane	0-0	0-0	80.9
U T E P	0-0	0-0	76.0

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		0-0	123.9
B Y U		0-0	108.5
Navy		0-0	96.1
Army		0-0	86.3

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Miami(O)	0-0	0-0	89.4
Temple	0-0	0-0	84.1
OhioU	0-0	0-0	80.8
Kent St.	0-0	0-0	80.6
Bowling Green	0-0	0-0	78.9
Buffalo	0-0	0-0	71.9
Akron	0-0	0-0	69.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Toledo	0-0	0-0	91.4
Western Michigan	0-0	0-0	89.0
Northern Illinois	0-0	0-0	88.5
Central Michigan	0-0	0-0	83.4
BallState	0-0	0-0	76.3
Eastern Michigan	0-0	0-0	69.6

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
BoiseState	0-0	0-0	121.7
T C U	0-0	0-0	110.0
Air Force	0-0	0-0	106.6
S.D.State	0-0	0-0	100.3
Colo.State	0-0	0-0	92.4
Wyoming	0-0	0-0	90.4
UNLV	0-0	0-0	85.2
New Mexico	0-0	0-0	81.7

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Stanford	0-0	0-0	126.4
Oregon	0-0	0-0	125.6
Washington	0-0	0-0	112.9
OregonState	0-0	0-0	112.9
California	0-0	0-0	111.3
WashingtonState	0-0	0-0	102.8
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
U S C	0-0	0-0	117.2
ArizonaState	0-0	0-0	116.6
Arizona	0-0	0-0	113.1
U C L A	0-0	0-0	110.9
Utah	0-0	0-0	108.4
Colorado	0-0	0-0	101.8

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	0-0	0-0	121.6
Florida	0-0	0-0	116.8
Georgia	0-0	0-0	112.6
Tennessee	0-0	0-0	106.6
Kentucky	0-0	0-0	102.2
Vanderbilt	0-0	0-0	100.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	0-0	0-0	132.4
L S U	0-0	0-0	124.6
Arkansas	0-0	0-0	122.7
MississippiState	0-0	0-0	117.0
Auburn	0-0	0-0	115.6
Ole Miss	0-0	0-0	99.6

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
FloridaInternational	0-0	0-0	87.1
Louisiana-Monroe	0-0	0-0	82.3
Troy	0-0	0-0	81.3
ArkansasState	0-0	0-0	81.3
Western Kentucky	0-0	0-0	75.1
MiddleTennessee	0-0	0-0	72.8
North Texas	0-0	0-0	71.9
U.ofLouisiana	0-0	0-0	71.7
FloridaAtlantic	0-0	0-0	68.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nevada	0-0	0-0	101.4
Hawaii	0-0	0-0	98.4
LouisianaTech	0-0	0-0	93.5
FresnoState	0-0	0-0	93.0
San JoseState	0-0	0-0	91.1
UtahState	0-0	0-0	90.2
Idaho	0-0	0-0	88.2
New MexicoState	0-0	0-0	78.8

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Thursday, September 1		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
WISCONSIN	U n l v	35.5	49-13	35 ½
Mississippi St.	MEMPHIS	43.0	52-9	29
WakeForest	SYRACUSE	0.7	27-26	-6
IDAHO	Bowling Green	12.8	31-18	7 ½
FLORIDAINT’L	North Texas	18.2	31-13	13
Kentucky  (n)	Western Kentucky	27.1	37-10	19
Friday, September 2		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
T c u	BAYLOR	3.0	20-17	6
Saturday, September 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
BOSTONCOLLEGE	Northwestern	12.0	32-20	3
AUBURN	UtahState	30.4	40-10	22
OHIOSTATE	Akron	42.4	49-7	33 ½
MISSOURI	Miami(O)	31.3	45-14	18
ALABAMA	KentState	56.3	56-0	37
U c l a	HOUSTON	11.2	38-27	-3
MICHIGAN	Western Michigan	29.3	42-13	14
SOUTHERN CAL	Minnesota	20.1	30-10	23
NOTRE DAME	South Florida	26.5	41-14	10 ½
B y u	OLE MISS	3.9	27-23	3
STANFORD	San JoseState	38.3	52-14	30
ColoradoState	NEW MEXICO	7.7	28-20	5 ½
PITTSBURGH	Buffalo	43.1	49-6	30
South Carolina(n)	East Carolina	26.8	48-21	20 ½
CALIFORNIA	FresnoState	20.3	37-17	10
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Army	5.2	21-16	10
TEXAS	Rice	22.6	37-14	23 ½
Indiana(n)	BallState	10.2	27-17	6 ½
OKLAHOMA	Tulsa	32.2	52-20	24 ½
NEW MEXICOSTATE	OhioU	2.5	24-21	-7
BoiseState(n)	Georgia	5.1	28-23	3
Oregon(n)	L s u	4.0	21-17	3
SOUTHERN MISS	LouisianaTech	6.5	27-20	13
HAWAII	Colorado	1.1	28-27	7
PURDUE	MiddleTennessee	32.9	39-6	17 ½
ILLINOIS	ArkansasState	30.5	41-10	21
FLORIDASTATE	Louisiana-Monroe	45.0	59-14	29 ½
CLEMSON	Troy	32.5	45-12	15 ½
FLORIDA	FloridaAtlantic	51.1	51-0	35
OKLAHOMASTATE	U ofLouisiana	52.1	62-10	36 ½
Sunday, September 4		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
WEST VIRGINIA	Marshall	23.3	35-12	21
TEXASA&M	S m u	31.6	49-17	15 ½
Monday, September 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
Miami(Fl)	MARYLAND	1.2	25-24	5 ½

 

 

Coming Tomorrow: Our Free Selections For Week One.  Remember, you get what you paid for!!!