The Pi-Rate Ratings

June 4, 2020

PiRate Ratings Going Ahead As Planned

Hello to all of our patrons and occasional readers.  The PiRate Ratings are currently going under the preseason compilation for both College and Pro football as if nothing has changed from the past.

Should the season be postponed or other major changes are made, we will do our best to adjust the ratings based on whatever presents itself.

Additionally, we will not participate in any political commentary or make any comments other than mathematical and historical counts.  That means that even though 2020 is an election year, we have chosen to stay out entirely from issuing any electoral vote count predictions and all the House and Senate forecasts.

We want this to be an escape for you to visit to get away from all other outside forces.  We are strongly considering adding a potential tabletop football game like we did several years ago with a “best of” tournament between some of the greatest college football teams of all time, similar to how we did this as a replacement to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, won by the 1968 UCLA Bruins.

Additionally, we are also considering putting a package together where people can send a small payment here, and we will send you the PDF files to print the “best of franchise” NFL and AFL teams between 1960 and 1979 with instructions on how you can cheaply print and have your own tabletop football strategy game to play.  We currently do not have a zip file creator on the PiRate ship.

One more heads up.  WordPress has begun to phase out the original editor, and they may force a new editor to be used, one that is not friendly to pasting tables from our spreadsheet.  If for any reason we find it impossible to paste our spreadsheet tables into this site, we will create a new site and leave the link to that site as the final posting here. Let’s hope we can get through the season without having to make that change.

If all goes according to the norm, expect to see the preseason PiRate College Football Ratings around August 20 and the NFL Football Ratings within hours after the teams make their final cuts the first Saturday in September.

Sincerely

The Captain

December 7, 2016

Our Unique Way of Compiling our College Retrodictive Ratings

We have been asked by multiple readers to explain a little more in depth how we compile our PiRate Retrodictive ratings and what exactly this rating means.

 

By the way, if you have comments you would like to make, please visit our sister site and use the “contact us” link, at:

http://piratings.webs.com/

There are basically two types of ratings in sports like football and basketball. The first type is Predictive, and this type is used by sports bettors. As the name implies, these ratings are used to attempt to predict the outcomes of the next week of games. If State U has a rating of 106.5, and Tech has a rating of 102.3, then on a neutral field, State would be expected to beat Tech by 4.2 points. Of course, home field advantage could alter this predictive spread by additional points. The regular PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings are predictive in nature. A team that started the season 0-4 and then finished 8-4 might be favored in a bowl over a team that went 11-1, because what the 8-4 team did in its first four games is not as important as what they did in their final games.

Retrodictive ratings or rankings look backward and rate the teams on what they have done to date. What the team did in its first game is just as important as what they did in their most recent game. It is an attempt to rank the teams by their performance on their whole body of work. That 8-4 team would most likely be rated well behind the 11-1 team on the body of work to date.

Our Retrodictive Rankings take considerably more time to compile than our regular PiRate Ratings. First, there are three components to the ranking. The first is rather obvious–wins and losses. The second is also obvious–strength of schedule. The third is well known to many, but you may not realize that in addition to strength of schedule, the strengths of schedule of all the opponents played is vitally important.

As an example, let’s say that Iowa opens the season with a win over Boston College. As the season goes on, Iowa’s rating is influenced by what Boston College does and what all the teams Boston College plays do. So, if Iowa has a bye after that first game, and Boston College proceeds to beat Florida State the following week, Iowa’s rating is going to go up almost as much as Boston College’s rating goes up.

Point differential can be included in retrodictive-style ratings, and we here at the PiRate Ratings have a rather unique way of including the type of score in a team’s wins and losses. It is not an exact science, but we like our version and believe it has merit over standard point differential. Here is a rundown on this process.
What type of win or loss was this game for the team in question? We rate wins and losses as:
A. Blowout
B. Decisive
C. Good
D. Fortunate
E. Tossup

A blowout win does not have to be by 40 points. If a team wins 28-0 and holds their opponent to 150 total yards, this rates as a blowout. If a team led 42-0 at halftime and then won 49-24, it still counts as a blowout. If a team led 24-20 midway through the third quarter and then won 45-20, this will usually not count as a blowout.

A decisive win is one in which the winner would have won this game close to 100% of the time but did not win in such a way that allowed the team to rest its starters for the final 20-25 minutes of the game. A 35-10 win with the winner leading 21-10 and scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter would be one example of a decisive but not blowout win.

A good win is one in which the winner would have probably won 7 to 8 times out of 10 with the same stats generated. A 10-17 point win is often a good win, unless the winner was outgained by more than 100 yards.

A fortunate win is one in which the winner won by 4-9 points but the outcome was always in doubt. In some cases, the winner had stats that looked more like they should have been the loser.

A tossup win is the same as a fortunate win but with the final spread being 1-3 points. All overtime wins count as tossup wins.

The better the win, the more points the winner receives and the loser gives up. If Georgia beats North Carolina 42-14, they receive more points than if they beat the Tar Heels 17-14.

For strength of schedule, we rate each of the 128 FBS teams from 10 to -10 in tenths so that the current top team is ranked as a 10, and the number 128 team is ranked as -10. FCS teams receive a rating of 5.0 to -15.0.

Let’s say that through 4 games, Oklahoma has played teams that currently rate in our strength of schedule as 9.2, 8.6, 5.4, and 1.3 points. The Sooners’ average schedule strength is 6.1. We are not done yet. Now, we have to adjust this number based on the strength of Oklahoma’s opponents’ schedule other than playing the Sooners. So, if that 9.2 strength team played a schedule to date that averages 5.8, and the other three teams played schedules with 4.3, 7.1, and -2.9, Oklahoma’s opponents’ strength of schedules average to 3.6.
Obviously, Oklahoma’s own strength of schedule of 6.1 is worth more than their opponents’ strength of schedule of 3.6, but their schedule strength portion of the equation is lower than 6.1 because of the weaker scheduling of their opponents. In this case, the algorithm we use through 4 games played will lower the overall strength to about 5.3.

We combine the score for the team’s wins and losses with the schedule strength, and it leaves us with a final number between 10 and -10. In actuality, no team approaches these outlier numbers. For instance, this week, Alabama comes in at 8.27 to be number one, while Texas State and Buffalo bring up the rear at -7.59. Because these are not predictive, you cannot use these numbers to predict the outcome of a game should Alabama play Texas State or Buffalo.

Of course, home field advantage is factored into the outcomes of the games. If Georgia beats Clemson between the hedges by a score of 17-14, it does not count as much as if they had defeated the Tigers 17-14 at Howard’s Rock.

We hope that clarifies and not confuses you further.  We are better with numbers than with letters.

August 31, 2011

PiRate Ratings For Week of September 1-5, 2011

PiRate Ratings—For Games of September 1-5, 2011

 

Is it us, or did this week seem to catch us all by surprise?  It sure feels like there should be another three or four weeks before the season begins.

 

Actually, 45 years ago, the college teams began fall practice around this time and did not play their first game until the Saturday after September 20.  Of course, teams played just 10 games then (some of the Big Ten still played just nine games).

 

With the exception of a few games, most of this week’s opening tilts are real duds.  It could be different if college football took our suggestions and made the opening week of the season a week of bowl classics in lieu of post-season bowl games.

 

See https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/the-great-bowlcott/

 

If the bowls were changed to the pre-season, all of them would become vitally important, since every team would be 0-0.  70 teams could open up the season in one of the 35 bowls, and the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl would be every bit as important as the Orange and Fiesta Bowls.  These games could decide seeding for the post-season 12-team or 16-team playoff.

 

Here are the opening PiRate Ratings for week one of the college football season.  For an brief explanation of how we formulate these ratings, go to:

 

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/08/31/the-pirate-ratings-the-hows-and-whys/

 

 

NCAA Top 25 This Week

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Oklahoma

132.8

0

0

2

Alabama

132.4

0

0

3

TexasA&M

130.6

0

0

4

Stanford

126.4

0

0

5

Oregon

125.6

0

0

6

L S U

124.6

0

0

7

Notre Dame

123.9

0

0

8

FloridaState

123.3

0

0

9

Arkansas

122.7

0

0

10

BoiseState

121.7

0

0

11

South Carolina

121.6

0

0

12

OklahomaState

119.8

0

0

13

Southern Cal

117.2

0

0

14

MississippiState

117.0

0

0

15

Florida

116.8

0

0

16

Missouri

116.7

0

0

17

ArizonaState

116.6

0

0

18

Nebraska

116.4

0

0

19

Wisconsin

116.2

0

0

20

Virginia Tech

116.1

0

0

21

Auburn

115.6

0

0

22

Miami(Fl)

115.2

0

0

23

Michigan

114.8

0

0

24

PennState

113.4

0

0

25

Arizona

113.1

0

0

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

0-0

0-0

123.3

Clemson

0-0

0-0

110.3

BostonCollege

0-0

0-0

109.7

North CarolinaState

0-0

0-0

109.1

Maryland

0-0

0-0

106.5

WakeForest

0-0

0-0

98.5

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-0

0-0

116.1

Miami-FL

0-0

0-0

115.2

North Carolina

0-0

0-0

106.8

Duke

0-0

0-0

99.8

Virginia

0-0

0-0

97.9

Georgia Tech

0-0

0-0

97.5

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Pittsburgh

0-0

0-0

111.5

Cincinnati

0-0

0-0

108.7

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

106.6

Connecticut

0-0

0-0

102.1

South Florida

0-0

0-0

101.4

Syracuse

0-0

0-0

94.8

Rutgers

0-0

0-0

94.5

Louisville

0-0

0-0

92.2

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

0-0

0-0

116.2

PennState

0-0

0-0

113.4

OhioState

0-0

0-0

108.1

Illinois

0-0

0-0

107.8

Purdue

0-0

0-0

101.7

Indiana

0-0

0-0

86.5

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

0-0

0-0

116.4

Michigan

0-0

0-0

114.8

MichiganState

0-0

0-0

113.5

Iowa

0-0

0-0

107.8

Northwestern

0-0

0-0

101.2

Minnesota

0-0

0-0

101.1

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

0-0

132.8

TexasA&M

0-0

0-0

130.6

OklahomaState

0-0

0-0

119.8

Missouri

0-0

0-0

116.7

Texas

0-0

0-0

108.3

TexasTech

0-0

0-0

105.5

Baylor

0-0

0-0

104.0

KansasState

0-0

0-0

101.5

IowaState

0-0

0-0

100.9

Kansas

0-0

0-0

95.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

0-0

0-0

97.0

East Carolina

0-0

0-0

94.8

Central Florida

0-0

0-0

91.9

U A B

0-0

0-0

89.1

Marshall

0-0

0-0

85.8

Memphis

0-0

0-0

72.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Tulsa

0-0

0-0

103.6

S M U

0-0

0-0

102.0

Houston

0-0

0-0

96.7

Rice

0-0

0-0

89.7

Tulane

0-0

0-0

80.9

U T E P

0-0

0-0

76.0

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

0-0

123.9

B Y U  

0-0

108.5

Navy  

0-0

96.1

Army  

0-0

86.3

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Miami(O)

0-0

0-0

89.4

Temple

0-0

0-0

84.1

OhioU

0-0

0-0

80.8

Kent St.

0-0

0-0

80.6

Bowling Green

0-0

0-0

78.9

Buffalo

0-0

0-0

71.9

Akron

0-0

0-0

69.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

0-0

0-0

91.4

Western Michigan

0-0

0-0

89.0

Northern Illinois

0-0

0-0

88.5

Central Michigan

0-0

0-0

83.4

BallState

0-0

0-0

76.3

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-0

69.6

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

0-0

0-0

121.7

T C U

0-0

0-0

110.0

Air Force

0-0

0-0

106.6

S.D.State

0-0

0-0

100.3

Colo.State

0-0

0-0

92.4

Wyoming

0-0

0-0

90.4

UNLV

0-0

0-0

85.2

New Mexico

0-0

0-0

81.7

 

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

0-0

0-0

126.4

Oregon

0-0

0-0

125.6

Washington

0-0

0-0

112.9

OregonState

0-0

0-0

112.9

California

0-0

0-0

111.3

WashingtonState

0-0

0-0

102.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

0-0

0-0

117.2

ArizonaState

0-0

0-0

116.6

Arizona

0-0

0-0

113.1

U C L A

0-0

0-0

110.9

Utah

0-0

0-0

108.4

Colorado

0-0

0-0

101.8

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

0-0

0-0

121.6

Florida

0-0

0-0

116.8

Georgia

0-0

0-0

112.6

Tennessee

0-0

0-0

106.6

Kentucky

0-0

0-0

102.2

Vanderbilt

0-0

0-0

100.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

0-0

132.4

L S U

0-0

0-0

124.6

Arkansas

0-0

0-0

122.7

MississippiState

0-0

0-0

117.0

Auburn

0-0

0-0

115.6

Ole Miss

0-0

0-0

99.6

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaInternational

0-0

0-0

87.1

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

0-0

82.3

Troy

0-0

0-0

81.3

ArkansasState

0-0

0-0

81.3

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-0

75.1

MiddleTennessee

0-0

0-0

72.8

North Texas

0-0

0-0

71.9

U.ofLouisiana

0-0

0-0

71.7

FloridaAtlantic

0-0

0-0

68.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

0-0

0-0

101.4

Hawaii

0-0

0-0

98.4

LouisianaTech

0-0

0-0

93.5

FresnoState

0-0

0-0

93.0

San JoseState

0-0

0-0

91.1

UtahState

0-0

0-0

90.2

Idaho

0-0

0-0

88.2

New MexicoState

0-0

0-0

78.8

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

   

 

 

 

Thursday, September 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

WISCONSIN U n l v

35.5

49-13

35 ½

Mississippi St. MEMPHIS

43.0

52-9

29   

WakeForest SYRACUSE

0.7

27-26

-6   

IDAHO Bowling Green

12.8

31-18

7 ½

FLORIDAINT’L North Texas

18.2

31-13

13   

Kentucky  (n) Western Kentucky

27.1

37-10

19   

   

 

 

 

Friday, September 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

T c u BAYLOR

3.0

20-17

6   

   

 

 

 

Saturday, September 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

BOSTONCOLLEGE Northwestern

12.0

32-20

3   

AUBURN UtahState

30.4

40-10

22   

OHIOSTATE Akron

42.4

49-7

33 ½

MISSOURI Miami(O)

31.3

45-14

18   

ALABAMA KentState

56.3

56-0

37   

U c l a HOUSTON

11.2

38-27

-3   

MICHIGAN Western Michigan

29.3

42-13

14   

SOUTHERN CAL Minnesota

20.1

30-10

23   

NOTRE DAME South Florida

26.5

41-14

10 ½

B y u OLE MISS

3.9

27-23

3   

STANFORD San JoseState

38.3

52-14

30   

ColoradoState NEW MEXICO

7.7

28-20

5 ½

PITTSBURGH Buffalo

43.1

49-6

30   

South Carolina(n) East Carolina

26.8

48-21

20 ½

CALIFORNIA FresnoState

20.3

37-17

10   

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Army

5.2

21-16

10   

TEXAS Rice

22.6

37-14

23 ½

Indiana(n) BallState

10.2

27-17

6 ½

OKLAHOMA Tulsa

32.2

52-20

24 ½

NEW MEXICOSTATE OhioU

2.5

24-21

-7   

BoiseState(n) Georgia

5.1

28-23

3   

Oregon(n) L s u

4.0

21-17

3   

SOUTHERN MISS LouisianaTech

6.5

27-20

13   

HAWAII Colorado

1.1

28-27

7   

PURDUE MiddleTennessee

32.9

39-6

17 ½

ILLINOIS ArkansasState

30.5

41-10

21   

FLORIDASTATE Louisiana-Monroe

45.0

59-14

29 ½

CLEMSON Troy

32.5

45-12

15 ½

FLORIDA FloridaAtlantic

51.1

51-0

35   

OKLAHOMASTATE U ofLouisiana

52.1

62-10

36 ½

   

 

 

 

Sunday, September 4  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

WEST VIRGINIA Marshall

23.3

35-12

21   

TEXASA&M S m u

31.6

49-17

15 ½

   

 

 

 

Monday, September 5  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Miami(Fl) MARYLAND

1.2

25-24

5 ½

 

 

Coming Tomorrow: Our Free Selections For Week One.  Remember, you get what you paid for!!!

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