The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 7, 2011

PiRate Ratings for Pro Football: Week One–September 8-12, 2011

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:28 am

Are you ready for some football?  For a long time this summer, we weren’t sure we would be able to utter that statement, as the NFL lockout continued without any progress. 

 

So, while the NBA deals with a stoppage that could eliminate the entire 2011-12 season (who is going to notice outside of the handful of remaining NBA fans?), football will go on as if nothing happened.  Except for the Hall of Fame Game, nothing was lost.

 

It is a great thing that the first week of the 2011 season was not cancelled, because in our opinions (really just mine on this one since I am the greybeard), this may be the best opening week of the season since the NFL and AFL merged but were still separate in the late 1960’s.

 

The schedule is loaded with interesting games, and the NFL schedule-makers are to be applauded for creating a “story” with almost every game on the slate.

 

It all starts Thursday night.  President Obama will be the warm-up act.  He will try to offer a pep talk to get people to “buy the Kool-Aid” and believe that his 1-15 of last year that has lost some key players to free agency and traded away the first overall pick in the last draft has a chance to win this year.  Most of the fans will quickly realize the pep talk is just that.  Another 1-15 or 2-14 season will precede his being fired by the owners of the team next November.

 

After the speech, defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay faces the Super Bowl Champion from the year before, New Orleans.  Rodgers vs. Brees on opening night will be terrific TV.

 

On Sunday, the Ravens host Pittsburgh in an early key game.  The last seven times these teams have faced off in the regular season, the margin of victory was either three or four points.  Expect more of the same.

 

Tampa Bay hosts Detroit.  If the Buccaneers win, Raheem Morris will be a genius, and the fans and media will call for the Bucs to challenge for another 10-win season.  If the Lions win, then they will “prove” all the pundits correct when they anointed Jim Schwartz as the new guru.

 

The Bears host the Falcons in a game of division winners from 2010.  Both teams face difficult schedules this season, having to face all four division winners from the NFC plus one from the AFC.  This is sort of like an adjunct to the opening game on Thursday night with the second place teams from their divisions facing off.

 

Houston hosts Indianapolis.  Gary Kubiak needs to win and get to the playoffs this year, or he may be a commentator or coordinator in 2012.  The Colts will not have Peyton Manning available and will have to do with recently unretired Kerry Collins.  The Texans have to win this game, because their next three games are tough.  A loss in the opener could tumble the Texans to a 2-6 first half start.

 

The Rams host the new “Dream Team,” but are the Eagles all that they are cracked up to be?  Most championship teams have all-star linebackers on defense, and we do not see one on this roster. 

 

Can Sam Bradford revive the Rams’ offense and make it look like Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger did when the Edward Jones Dome was a very unfriendly place for a visiting team?

 

The Giants go on the road to Washington, where they have won five consecutive games at Fedex Field.  With Philadelphia having a tricky road game, this could give the Giants a great chance to get a leg up on their rival.

 

Cam Newton’s first game with Carolina will overshadow Kevin Kolb’s Arizona Cardinals debut in Phoenix.  The Cardinals fell to 4-12 last year and will benefit from having the easiest schedule in the NFC West.  Since 8-8 will probably win this division, and 7-9 could possibly win it again, this is a must-win game for the Cardinals.

 

San Francisco and Seattle face off in Candlestick Park, so at least one NFC West team will open 1-0, assuming this game does not end in a tie.  Don’t forget there is a not-so-friendly rivalry between the two coaches in this game.  San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh and Seattle coach Pete Carroll had their moments when Harbaugh was at Stanford and Carroll was at USC.  Remember that 55-21 pasting Stanford put on Carroll’s last USC team, and how he ran up the score?

 

On Sunday Night, the Jets host the Cowboys.  Will Mark Sanchez be able to take New York to the next level?  Can Rex Ryan’s defense carry the team back to the playoffs if Sanchez is no better?  What about the Cowboys?  Jason Garrett guided Dallas to a 5-3 record in the second half of 2010.  Can he put two 5-3 halves together?

 

We get our annual Monday night doubleheader, and the early game should be interesting.  Miami hosts New England, and the Dolphins are in a state of flux with multiple losses of personnel from 2010.  As for the Patriots, what can they do for an encore after going 14-2 last year?

 

Here are the opening PiRate Ratings for the 2011 NFL Season.  If you want a brief explanation of the three different ratings, see “The Three Pro Football Ratings Explained at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/category/explanation-of-pro-football-ratings/

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Philadelphia Eagles

0

0

0

0

0

105.9

106.4

106.2

New York Giants

0

0

0

0

0

105.4

104.0

105.6

Dallas Cowboys

0

0

0

0

0

101.3

101.8

101.9

Washington Redskins

0

0

0

0

0

94.2

94.0

93.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Green Bay Packers

0

0

0

0

0

107.3

107.9

108.0

Chicago Bears

0

0

0

0

0

102.5

100.8

102.3

Detroit Lions

0

0

0

0

0

100.2

100.0

101.4

Minnesota Vikings

0

0

0

0

0

97.3

96.6

95.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

0

0

0

0

0

106.2

105.5

105.2

Atlanta Falcons

0

0

0

0

0

105.6

105.3

106.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0

0

0

0

0

98.9

100.7

99.4

Carolina Panthers

0

0

0

0

0

91.0

92.7

89.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

St. Louis Rams

0

0

0

0

0

96.7

98.4

99.2

San Francisco 49ers

0

0

0

0

0

96.0

96.2

97.1

Arizona Cardinals

0

0

0

0

0

94.9

99.6

99.0

Seattle Seahawks

0

0

0

0

0

92.0

95.0

94.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

0

0

0

0

0

110.5

108.0

109.5

New York Jets

0

0

0

0

0

106.0

105.2

106.3

Miami Dolphins

0

0

0

0

0

99.3

98.5

100.6

Buffalo Bills

0

0

0

0

0

91.7

92.5

90.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Pittsburgh Steelers

0

0

0

0

0

109.0

95.0

103.9

Baltimore Ravens

0

0

0

0

0

105.1

104.6

105.1

Cleveland Browns

0

0

0

0

0

94.5

105.9

97.8

Cincinnati Bengals

0

0

0

0

0

94.4

92.9

93.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

0

0

0

0

0

103.3

104.4

103.5

Houston Texans

0

0

0

0

0

101.3

101.8

102.5

Tennessee Titans

0

0

0

0

0

96.3

95.5

93.4

Jacksonville Jaguars

0

0

0

0

0

96.2

97.3

97.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Diego Chargers

0

0

0

0

0

106.1

104.9

104.7

Kansas City Chiefs

0

0

0

0

0

101.2

100.3

100.1

Oakland Raiders

0

0

0

0

0

96.6

95.2

92.8

Denver Broncos

0

0

0

0

0

93.1

94.4

92.8

 

 

Here are the PiRate Spreads and early lines for Week One of the NFL season.

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
Week 1: September 8-12, 2011          
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, September 6, 2011 @11:45 AM EDT    
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
GREEN BAY New Orleans 3.1 4.4 4.8 4    47 1/2
Pittsburgh BALTIMORE 2.9 0.3 0.0 -3    36   
Detroit TAMPA BAY 1.3 -0.7 2.0 -2    41   
Atlanta CHICAGO 2.6 4.0 3.7 3    41   
KANSAS CITY Buffalo 12.5 10.8 12.4 5 1/2 39 1/2
HOUSTON Indianapolis 1.0 0.4 1.8 8 1/2 43   
Philadelphia ST. LOUIS 7.2 6.0 5.0 5    44   
CLEVELAND Cincinnati 2.1 4.1 4.2 6 1/2 36   
JACKSONVILLE Tennessee 1.4 3.3 6.0 3    39    
New York Giants WASHINGTON 8.7 7.5 9.2 3    38   
ARIZONA Carolina 8.4 11.4 14.1 7    37   
SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 7.5 4.7 6.4 5    38   
SAN DIEGO Minnesota 13.8 13.3 13.8 8 1/2 41 1/2
NEW YORK JETS Dallas 7.2 5.9 6.9 4 1/2 41   
New England MIAMI 11.2 9.5 8.9 7    45 1/2
Oakland DENVER 1.0 -1.7 -2.5 -3    40   

 

Predictions For 2011-2012

 

NFC East      

Dallas Cowboys                     9-7

New York Giants                  10-6

Philadelphia Eagles               11-5

Washington Redskins           5-11

           

NFC North   

Chicago Bears                       9-7

Detroit Lions                          8-8

Green Bay Packers               12-4

Minnesota Vikings                6-10

           

NFC South    

Atlanta Falcons                     11-5

Carolina Panthers                 3-13

New Orleans Saints               12-4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers        7-9

           

NFC West     

Arizona Cardinals                 6-10

St. Louis Rams                      6-10

San Francisco 49ers              7-9

Seattle Seahawks                   6-10

           

AFC East      

Buffalo Bills                           5-11

Miami Dolphins                     7-9

New England Patriots           12-4

New York Jets                       12-4

           

AFC North   

Baltimore Ravens                  12-4

Cincinnati Bengals                4-12

Cleveland Browns                 7-9

Pittsburgh Steelers                12-4

           

AFC South    

Houston Texans                     10-6

Indianapolis Colts                 10-6

Jacksonville Jaguars             4-12

Tennessee Titans                   6-10

           

AFC West     

Denver Broncos                     4-12

Kansas City Chiefs                8-8

Oakland Raiders                   5-11

San Diego Chargers              10-6

 

Playoffs

Wildcard

New York Giants over Philadelphia

Atlanta over San Francisco

Baltimore over Indianapolis

New York Jets over San Diego

 

Divisional

Green Bay over Atlanta

New York Giants over New Orleans

Baltimore over New England

New York Jets over Pittsburgh

 

Conference Championship

New York Giants over Green Bay

New York Jets over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New York Giants over New York Jets

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