PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special

With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.

Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.

Team	NET	COM	SOS	NSOS	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Away	Today
Arizona St.	66	66	62	123	5-6	4-5	5-0	8-1	12-7
Clemson	57	63	123	312	4-4	3-2	7-2	9-2	8-9
Mississippi St.	49	50	43	204	4-8	4-3	5-1	8-0	9-8
Nevada	37	42	24	70	4-5	4-3	10-2	3-0	8-9
North Carolina	46	44	12	18	2-9	5-4	7-0	6-0	8-10
North Texas	38	46	83	112	1-3	3-2	11-1	9-1	14-5
Oklahoma St.	43	38	11	158	6-12	4-2	3-1	5-0	7-10
Oregon	47	40	28	7	2-9	7-4	5-1	5-0	6-9
Pittsburgh	67	77	86	122	4-4	3-5	5-1	10-1	8-8
Rutgers	40	35	48	219	5-7	5-3	2-4	7-0	5-9
UAB	52	54	119	293	2-3	1-3	9-1	12-1	10-6	FAU
Utah St.	18	18	20	29	2-4	9-1	13-0	1-2	12-5	SDSU
Vanderbilt	79	79	6	12	5-9	5-1	5-2	5-1	8-8	TXAM
Wisconsin	82	75	36	118	6-8	5-5	1-1	5-0	8-8

These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.

Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.

In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.

Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.

If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 23, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Cal St. Fullerton	UC Davis	3.1
Cal St. Northridge	Cal St. Bakersfield	0.2
California	Washington	-6.4
Charleston	Towson	9.1
Charlotte	North Texas	-2.5
Colorado	USC	2.4
Detroit	Northern Kentucky	1.9
Drexel	Northeastern	7.4
Florida Atlantic	UTSA	20.7
Florida Intl.	UTEP	0.6
Gardner-Webb	Longwood	1.3
Gonzaga	San Diego	21.0
Green Bay	Cleveland St.	-13.7
Hampton	Monmouth	3.8
Houston Christian	McNeese St.	0.0
Idaho St.	Idaho	4.2
Illinois	Northwestern	5.5
Incarnate Word	Northwestern St.	-6.8
IUPUI	Robert Morris	-10.2
Lamar	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.0
Lindenwood	Southeast Missouri St.	-3.1
Merrimack	Central Connecticut St.	3.6
Milwaukee	Purdue Ft. Wayne	1.9
Montana	Portland St.	6.3
Montana St.	Sacramento St.	9.6
New Orleans	Nicholls St.	-6.8
North Carolina A&T	Delaware	-1.9
North Dakota	Western Illinois	2.4
North Dakota St.	St. Thomas (MN)	1.5
Oakland	Wright St.	-2.9
Ohio St.	Penn St.	2.8
Rutgers	Michigan	5.9
Sacred Heart	St. Francis (NY)	6.5
Saint Mary’s	Pacific	19.3
Sam Houston	Cal Baptist	8.7
San Francisco	Portland	7.7
Santa Clara	Pepperdine	10.3
SIU Edwardsville	Little Rock	8.1
South Dakota	Oral Roberts	-13.7
South Dakota St.	UMKC	9.1
Southern Indiana	Tennessee Tech	4.5
St. Francis (PA)	Fairleigh Dickinson	1.0
Stanford	Washington St.	0.8
Tarleton St.	Utah Valley	-4.3
Texas A&M-CC	Texas A&M-Commerce	10.2
UAB	Rice	11.5
UC Irvine	UC San Diego	14.6
UC Santa Barbara	Long Beach St.	5.3
UNC Wilmington	Stony Brook	12.2
UT Arlington	Southern Utah	-5.4
UT Martin	Tennessee St.	4.3
UT-Rio Grande Valley	Utah Tech	-1.4
Utah	UCLA	-6.2
Wagner	Stonehill College	4.3
Weber St.	Eastern Washington	-2.5
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	1.3
Wichita St.	Memphis	-5.1
William & Mary	Elon	2.6

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 9, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Cal St. Bakersfield	Cal St. Northridge	4.0
California	Arizona	-17.5
Central Arkansas	Lipscomb	-7.6
Coastal Carolina	Marshall	-9.7
Eastern Illinois	UT Martin	-4.2
Florida Atlantic	Rice	13.6
Florida Intl.	Louisiana Tech	-2.3
Georgia Southern	James Madison	-6.7
Georgia St.	Old Dominion	-1.3
Gonzaga	San Francisco	14.1
Green Bay	Oakland	-10.6
Idaho St.	Montana	-1.7
Incarnate Word	Lamar	6.0
Jacksonville	Stetson	0.5
Jacksonville St.	Kennesaw St.	-4.1
Liberty	Bellarmine	15.2
Lindenwood	SIU Edwarsville	-5.7
Little Rock	Morehead St.	-2.2
Long Beach St.	UC Santa Barbara	-0.4
Long Island	Fairleigh Dickinson	-8.1
Louisiana Monroe	Appalachian St.	-2.4
Loyola Marymount	Saint Mary’s	-7.7
McNeese St.	Southeastern Louisiana	-1.8
Merrimack	Stonehill College	1.9
Milwaukee	Detroit	2.0
Nicholls St.	New Orleans	11.7
North Alabama	Austin Peay	4.4
North Dakota	Denver	1.5
North Dakota St.	Omaha	7.0
North Florida	Florida Gulf Coast	-1.6
North Texas	UAB	1.1
Northern Arizona	Sacramento St.	0.2
Northern Colorado	Portland St.	1.0
Ohio St.	Northwestern	5.7
Oregon	USC	2.6
Oregon St.	UCLA	-17.0
Pepperdine	BYU	-6.7
Portland	Pacific	5.2
Purdue	Iowa	7.2
Queens	Eastern Kentucky	1.3
Radford	Gardner-Webb	3.1
Santa Clara	San Diego	10.6
Southern Miss.	Louisiana	2.6
Southern Utah	Tarleton St.	7.2
St. Francis (NY)	Wagner	-3.6
St. Francis (PA)	Sacred Heart	1.3
St. Thomas (MN)	Oral Roberts	-9.3
Stanford	Arizona St.	0.3
Tennessee St.	Southeast Missouri St.	-0.5
Tennessee Tech	Southern Indiana	-8.5
Texas A&M-CC	Houston Christian	14.0
Texas A&M-Commerce	Northwestern St.	-3.2
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	8.0
Troy	South Alabama	2.8
UC Irvine	Cal Poly	15.6
UC Riverside	UC Davis	1.9
UT-Rio Grande Valley	UT Arlington	1.9
UTEP	Charlotte	-1.2
Weber St.	Montana St.	-2.8
Western Illinois	UMKC	1.9
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	-0.1

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, January 28, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Abilene Christian	Utah Tech	1.9
Akron	Ohio	4.3
Albany	Maine	-1.6
Appalachian St.	Arkansas St.	10.9
Arkansas Pine Bluff	Mississippi Valley St.	8.2
Army	Holy Cross	9.5
Baylor	Arkansas	4.2
Bethune-Cookman	Alabama St.	0.5
Binghamton	Bryant	-6.3
Boise St.	Colorado St.	10.2
Butler	Seton Hall	-1.0
BYU	Saint Mary’s	-5.7
Cal Poly	Cal St. Fullerton	-4.1
Campbell	UNC Asheville	-1.0
Central Arkansas	Jacksonville	-6.5
Central Connecticut St.	St. Francis (PA)	1.3
Central Florida	Temple	7.7
Central Michigan	Western Michigan	0.3
Charleston	Hofstra	6.0
Coastal Carolina	Old Dominion	-1.0
Colgate	Lafayette	10.3
Cornell	Brown	8.2
Creighton	Xavier	3.6
Dartmouth	Columbia	9.3
Dayton	Richmond	8.3
Delaware	Northeastern	5.8
Delaware St.	Morgan St.	-7.5
DePaul	Marquette	-9.5
East Tennessee St.	Chattanooga	-2.2
Eastern Illinois	Southeast Missouri St.	-4.3
Eastern Kentucky	Bellarmine	5.5
Eastern Washington	Weber St.	5.9
Elon	Drexel	-7.7
Florida A&M	Alabama A&M	-1.5
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	12.9
Florida Intl.	Middle Tennessee	-4.8
Florida St.	Clemson	-4.6
Fordham	George Washington	3.3
Fresno St.	Utah St.	-6.3
Gardner-Webb	High Point	9.3
Georgia	South Carolina	12.0
Georgia Tech	Duke	-7.8
Grambling	Jackson St.	8.3
Hampton	Stony Brook	-0.5
Houston	Cincinnati	14.6
Howard	North Carolina Central	-0.2
Idaho	Idaho St.	1.2
Incarnate Word	Nicholls St.	-5.7
Indiana	Ohio St.	3.5
Indiana St.	Northern Iowa	5.1
Jacksonville St.	Austin Peay	4.1
James Madison	Louisiana Monroe	13.8
Kansas St.	Florida	4.0
Kennesaw St.	Lipscomb	3.9
Kentucky	Kansas	0.2
Liberty	Florida Gulf Coast	10.9
Long Beach St.	UC Davis	2.5
Longwood	Charleston Southern	10.5
Louisiana	Georgia Southern	9.5
Loyola (MD)	Bucknell	-0.8
Loyola Marymount	Pepperdine	9.5
LSU	Texas Tech	-2.5
Marshall	Georgia St.	12.5
Maryland	Nebraska	9.9
Maryland Eastern Shore	Coppin St.	6.9
Massachusetts	Duquesne	0.8
Merrimack	Fairleigh Dickinson	1.6
Miami (O)	Eastern Michigan	5.8
Mississippi St.	TCU	-2.9
Missouri	Iowa St.	-1.7
Morehead St.	SIU Edwardsville	-0.8
Mount St. Mary’s	Saint Peter’s	3.3
Murray St.	Missouri St.	0.9
Navy	American	3.5
New Hampshire	UMass Lowell	-4.2
New Orleans	Southeastern Louisiana	-3.3
Norfolk St.	South Carolina St.	14.3
North Alabama	North Florida	1.8
North Carolina A&T	Monmouth	12.4
North Texas	UTEP	9.4
Northern Arizona	Northern Colorado	1.2
Northern Illinois	Ball St.	-2.6
Northern Kentucky	Milwaukee	2.8
Northwestern	Minnesota	13.4
Northwestern St.	Lamar	15.8
Notre Dame	Louisville	10.8
Oklahoma	Alabama	-7.7
Oklahoma St.	Mississippi	8.4
Oral Roberts	Omaha	19.4
Oregon	Utah	2.2
Oregon St.	Colorado	-8.6
Penn	Harvard	3.0
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	-0.8
Portland	Gonzaga	-13.2
Portland St.	Montana	0.6
Presbyterian	Winthrop	-1.4
Queens	Stetson	1.8
Rhode Island	La Salle	5.2
Rice	UAB	-4.6
Sacramento St.	Montana St.	-2.2
San Diego	San Francisco	-3.2
San Diego St	San Jose St.	13.1
Santa Clara	Pacific	11.9
South Alabama	Troy	-0.5
Southern Miss.	Texas St.	8.7
Southern U.	Alcorn St.	4.7
St. Francis (NY)	Long Island	8.5
St. Thomas (MN)	South Dakota	7.3
Stanford	California	11.5
Stephen F. Austin	Seattle	1.2
Stonehill College	Sacred Heart	1.7
Tarleton St.	Grand Canyon	-3.6
Tennessee	Texas	7.9
Tennessee St.	Lindenwood	5.0
Tennessee Tech	Little Rock	6.3
Texas A&M	Vanderbilt	8.3
Texas A&M-CC	McNeese St.	9.4
Texas A&M-Commerce	Houston Christian	8.6
Texas Southern	Prairie View	2.9
The Citadel	Mercer	-1.3
Toledo	Bowling Green	11.6
Towson	William & Mary	11.8
UC Irvine	Cal St. Northridge	16.2
UC Riverside	UC San Diego	9.6
UMKC	Denver	5.3
UNLV	Nevada	0.5
USC Upstate	Radford	-4.9
UT Martin	Southern Indiana	1.8
UT-Rio Grande Valley	Cal Baptist	-6.7
Utah Valley	New Mexico St.	8.9
UTSA	Louisiana Tech	-7.8
Valparaiso	Evansville	8.3
VCU	St. Bonaventure	10.6
Vermont	UMBC	6.4
Virginia	Boston College	16.8
Virginia Tech	Syracuse	6.1
VMI	Western Carolina	-3.0
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	0.2
Washington	Arizona	-7.9
Washington St.	Arizona St.	1.8
West Virginia	Auburn	2.9
Western Illinois	South Dakota St.	-2.5
Wisconsin	Illinois	-2.1
Wofford	Samford	-0.4
Wright St.	Green Bay	17.4
Yale	Princeton	3.8

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 26, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Abilene Christian	Grand Canyon	-4.9
Appalachian St.	Georgia St.	5.7
Bellarmine	Eastern Kentucky	-0.7
Cal Poly	Long Beach St.	-3.3
Cal St. Bakersfield	UC Davis	-4.7
Cal St. Fullerton	UC Irvine	-2.8
Cal St. Northridge	UC San Diego	0.9
Central Arkansas	North Florida	-3.2
Central Connecticut St.	Merrimack	2.7
Eastern Washington	Idaho St.	9.5
Elon	Hofstra	-11.7
Fairleigh Dickinson	St. Francis (PA)	2.1
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tennessee	9.5
Florida Intl.	Western Kentucky	-3.2
Hampton	Delaware	-7.9
Idaho	Weber St.	-2.0
Incarnate Word	McNeese St.	-0.1
Jacksonville St.	Lipscomb	-3.6
James Madison	Coastal Carolina	12.4
Kennesaw St.	Austin Peay	9.5
Lamar	Texas A&M-Commerce	-6.1
Liberty	Stetson	11.2
Louisiana	Troy	3.3
Loyola Marymount	Portland	7.5
Marshall	Louisiana Monroe	16.7
Memphis	SMU	14.9
Michigan	Purdue	-4.7
Michigan St.	Iowa	1.7
Morehead St.	Little Rock	7.2
Mount St. Mary’s	Fairfield	-0.1
North Alabama	Jacksonville	-4.2
North Carolina A&T	Drexel	-2.8
North Texas	UTSA	18.9
Northern Kentucky	Green Bay	18.2
Northwestern St.	Houston Christian	13.0
Oral Roberts	Denver	16.8
Oregon	Colorado	3.2
Oregon St.	Utah	-8.7
Pepperdine	San Diego	3.7
Portland St.	Montana St.	-3.2
Queens	Florida Gulf Coast	0.1
Radford	Longwood	1.6
Rice	Charlotte	-0.9
Sacramento St.	Montana	0.3
Sacred Heart	Long Island	13.2
Sam Houston	Seattle	6.1
South Alabama	Old Dominion	2.4
Southeast Louisiana	New Orleans	8.8
Southeast Missouri St.	Tennessee St.	5.9
Southern Indiana	Eastern Illinois	10.3
Southern Miss.	Arkansas St.	14.4
Southern Utah	Utah Valley	-0.1
St. Thomas	South Dakota St.	-0.3
Tarleton St.	Utah Tech	3.0
Tennessee Tech	SIU Edwardsville	-2.4
Texas A&M-CC	Nicholls St.	2.6
Texas St.	Georgia Southern	3.2
Towson	Northeastern	9.7
UAB	Louisiana Tech	8.9
UMKC	Omaha	6.9
UNC Wilmington	Monmouth	19.5
USC	UCLA	-6.0
UT Martin	Lindenwood	9.3
Wagner	St. Francis (NY)	10.5
Washington	Arizona St.	-1.9
Washington St.	Arizona	-4.1
Western Illinois	South Dakota	4.2
William & Mary	Stony Brook	3.7
Wright St.	Milwaukee	1.8

PiRate Ratings College Football for August 27, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	4.9	5.8	5.9
Hawaii	Vanderbilt	-9.1	-8.8	-6.4
Illinois	Wyoming	22.0	20.0	19.1
Nebraska (n)	Northwestern	10.4	9.3	11.3
New Mexico St.	Nevada	-9.7	-9.5	-10.3
Utah St.	Connecticut	20.9	19.8	25.1
UTEP	North Texas	0.8	1.2	-0.3

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Western Kentucky	Austin Peay	24.6
UNLV	Idaho St.	18.5
Florida St.	Duquesne	34.2
North Carolina	Florida A&M	29.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	130.5
2	Alabama	129.1
3	Ohio St.	128.3
4	Michigan	123.0
5	Clemson	120.0
6	Oklahoma	119.1
7	NC State	118.1
8	Michigan St.	117.7
9	Wisconsin	117.6
10	Oklahoma St.	117.5
11	Notre Dame	116.8
12	Utah	116.6
13	Purdue	115.9
14	Arkansas	115.3
15	Tennessee	115.1
16	Pittsburgh	115.0
17	Iowa	114.7
18	Miami (Fla.)	114.7
19	Penn St.	114.6
20	Texas A&M	114.3
21	Mississippi St.	113.9
22	Minnesota	113.6
23	Baylor	113.5
24	Kentucky	112.7
25	L S U	112.5
26	Ole Miss	112.2
27	BYU	111.5
28	Cincinnati	111.5
29	Oregon	111.3
30	Florida St.	111.3
31	Auburn	111.2
32	Louisville	111.0
33	Kansas St.	110.3
34	Texas	110.2
35	Maryland	110.0
36	Nebraska	109.8
37	U C L A	109.1
38	South Carolina	109.1
39	Iowa St.	108.7
40	North Carolina	108.0
41	T C U	107.8
42	Oregon St.	107.2
43	Texas Tech	106.7
44	Florida	106.7
45	Boise St.	106.0
46	U S C	105.9
47	Houston	105.5
48	Wake Forest	105.4
49	Washington	104.9
50	Syracuse	104.8
51	Arizona St.	104.5
52	UCF	104.4
53	Missouri	103.7
54	Virginia	103.6
55	Fresno St.	103.5
56	West Virginia	103.3
57	Illinois	102.6
58	Stanford	102.2
59	SMU	102.0
60	Washington St.	101.5
61	Air Force	101.4
62	Boston College	101.2
63	Indiana	100.9
64	Georgia St.	100.1
65	Rutgers	100.1
66	East Carolina	99.8
67	Virginia Tech	99.7
68	Northwestern	99.5
69	Army	99.0
70	California	98.3
71	N. Illinois	98.2
72	Tulane	98.2
73	U A B	98.1
74	Appal. St.	97.8
75	San Diego St.	97.7
76	Colorado	97.6
77	Kansas	97.3
78	W. Kentucky	97.2
79	Memphis	97.2
80	Liberty	97.0
81	Louisiana	96.9
82	U T S A	96.5
83	Utah St.	96.0
84	Tulsa	95.5
85	USF	95.4
86	Georgia Tech	95.0
87	Central Mich.	95.0
88	Toledo	94.5
89	Arizona	94.1
90	Coastal Car.	94.0
91	Miami (Ohio)	93.5
92	Western Mich.	93.1
93	Navy	92.2
94	Marshall	92.1
95	Troy	91.2
96	Vanderbilt	90.9
97	J. Madison	89.5
98	Old Dominion	89.4
99	Colorado St.	89.2
100	North Texas	88.9
101	Eastern Mich.	88.5
102	Kent St.	88.4
103	Nevada	87.7
104	U N L V	87.6
105	San Jose St.	87.4
106	Bowling Green	87.1
107	U T E P	86.9
108	Ga. Southern	86.6
109	Middle Tennessee	86.5
110	Florida Atlantic	86.1
111	Ohio	85.9
112	South Alabama	85.8
113	Southern Miss.	85.3
114	Wyoming	85.3
115	Ball St.	85.1
116	Buffalo	84.5
117	Duke	84.1
118	Charlotte	83.1
119	UL-Monroe	82.1
120	Temple	81.1
121	Texas St.	81.0
122	Arkansas St.	80.8
123	Rice	80.7
124	Louisiana Tech	80.4
125	New Mexico	80.2
126	Hawaii	79.3
127	Akron	78.5
128	Connecticut	77.1
129	New Mexico St.	75.4
130	Massachusetts	74.7
131	Florida Int’l.	67.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.3	110.4	112.9	111.5
Houston	105.1	104.8	106.6	105.5
UCF	103.9	104.6	104.7	104.4
SMU	102.3	101.4	102.4	102.0
East Carolina	99.6	99.2	100.5	99.8
Tulane	98.7	97.8	98.0	98.2
Memphis	97.1	97.6	97.0	97.2
Tulsa	95.9	94.9	95.8	95.5
USF	96.3	94.8	95.2	95.4
Navy	93.0	92.2	91.4	92.2
Temple	81.0	83.5	78.7	81.1
AAC	98.6	98.3	98.5	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.8	119.6	120.6	120.0
NC State	118.4	117.4	118.6	118.1
Florida St.	111.8	111.1	111.0	111.3
Louisville	111.8	110.6	110.8	111.0
Wake Forest	105.9	105.2	105.2	105.4
Syracuse	105.9	104.3	104.2	104.8
Boston College	100.6	102.6	100.3	101.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	116.0	114.7	114.3	115.0
Miami (Fla.)	115.2	113.8	115.0	114.7
North Carolina	108.1	108.3	107.6	108.0
Virginia	104.1	104.3	102.4	103.6
Virginia Tech	100.4	100.8	97.9	99.7
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.6	93.7	95.0
Duke	84.3	86.8	81.2	84.1
ACC	107.0	106.8	105.9	106.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.4	118.2	119.8	119.1
Oklahoma St.	118.3	116.4	117.7	117.5
Baylor	114.2	112.9	113.4	113.5
Kansas St.	111.2	109.8	110.0	110.3
Texas	111.2	110.0	109.5	110.2
Iowa St.	108.7	108.6	108.9	108.7
T C U	108.9	107.3	107.3	107.8
Texas Tech	107.1	105.6	107.5	106.7
West Virginia	103.8	103.6	102.5	103.3
Kansas	99.2	96.9	95.8	97.3
Big 12	110.2	108.9	109.2	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.7	126.7	129.6	128.3
Michigan	123.7	121.9	123.5	123.0
Michigan St.	119.0	117.4	116.8	117.7
Penn St.	115.1	114.6	114.1	114.6
Maryland	110.3	110.1	109.8	110.0
Indiana	102.1	101.5	99.1	100.9
Rutgers	101.4	100.5	98.3	100.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	118.1	117.4	117.1	117.6
Purdue	116.8	115.7	115.0	115.9
Iowa	115.9	114.4	113.9	114.7
Minnesota	113.7	113.1	114.1	113.6
Nebraska	110.2	110.2	109.1	109.8
Illinois	103.1	103.7	101.2	102.6
Northwestern	99.8	100.9	97.8	99.5
Big Ten	112.7	112.0	111.4	112.0
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	97.4	97.6	99.2	98.1
W. Kentucky	96.5	96.1	99.1	97.2
U T S A	97.2	95.4	96.7	96.5
North Texas	88.7	87.9	90.0	88.9
U T E P	87.0	86.5	87.2	86.9
Middle Tennessee	85.7	86.8	86.9	86.5
Florida Atlantic	85.4	87.3	85.7	86.1
Charlotte	83.0	84.0	82.4	83.1
Rice	81.3	80.7	80.2	80.7
Louisiana Tech	80.3	82.0	78.8	80.4
Florida Int’l.	67.1	70.2	65.4	67.6
CUSA	86.3	86.8	86.5	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	117.5	115.5	117.4	116.8
BYU	112.2	110.2	112.2	111.5
Army	98.6	99.3	99.2	99.0
Liberty	95.4	97.5	98.0	97.0
Connecticut	77.6	79.1	74.6	77.1
New Mexico St.	74.9	77.2	74.1	75.4
Massachusetts	75.3	76.0	72.7	74.7
Independents	93.1	93.5	92.6	93.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.6	94.6	94.4	93.5
Kent St.	87.4	90.2	87.7	88.4
Bowling Green	87.8	86.5	86.9	87.1
Ohio	84.3	87.0	86.5	85.9
Buffalo	83.1	85.8	84.8	84.5
Akron	78.3	79.3	77.9	78.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	97.9	98.3	98.4	98.2
Central Mich.	93.1	95.4	96.4	95.0
Toledo	93.5	94.7	95.4	94.5
Western Mich.	92.2	93.5	93.6	93.1
Eastern Mich.	88.4	89.0	88.1	88.5
Ball St.	84.7	86.0	84.8	85.1
MAC	88.5	90.0	89.6	89.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	105.0	107.0	106.0
Air Force	101.0	100.9	102.4	101.4
Utah St.	95.5	95.9	96.7	96.0
Colorado St.	88.6	89.9	89.1	89.2
Wyoming	84.0	86.7	85.1	85.3
New Mexico	80.4	81.1	79.1	80.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.3	102.6	104.6	103.5
San Diego St.	97.5	97.5	97.9	97.7
Nevada	87.1	89.2	86.9	87.7
U N L V	88.5	86.0	88.1	87.6
San Jose St.	86.9	87.3	88.0	87.4
Hawaii	78.6	80.1	79.4	79.3
MWC	91.5	91.8	92.0	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.5	115.0	118.4	116.6
Oregon	111.7	111.4	110.9	111.3
U C L A	108.6	108.5	110.2	109.1
Oregon St.	107.2	106.6	107.8	107.2
U S C	105.4	106.2	106.2	105.9
Washington	104.2	105.0	105.5	104.9
Arizona St.	104.1	104.1	105.4	104.5
Stanford	103.8	101.0	101.8	102.2
Washington St.	101.0	101.6	101.8	101.5
California	97.7	98.1	99.1	98.3
Colorado	98.5	96.7	97.7	97.6
Arizona	94.1	94.1	94.0	94.1
Pac-12	104.4	104.0	104.9	104.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	130.6	128.7	132.2	130.5
Tennessee	115.2	114.9	115.3	115.1
Kentucky	112.1	112.8	113.3	112.7
South Carolina	109.5	108.8	108.9	109.1
Florida	105.9	108.0	106.3	106.7
Missouri	104.0	104.1	103.0	103.7
Vanderbilt	91.1	92.3	89.3	90.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.0	127.7	130.6	129.1
Arkansas	115.9	113.9	116.1	115.3
Texas A&M	113.4	114.8	114.8	114.3
Mississippi St.	115.2	113.1	113.5	113.9
L S U	113.0	112.2	112.2	112.5
Ole Miss	113.4	111.4	111.8	112.2
Auburn	112.1	110.6	110.9	111.2
SEC	112.9	112.4	112.7	112.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia St.	99.3	98.5	102.6	100.1
Appal. St.	96.2	98.1	99.0	97.8
Coastal Car.	92.8	94.2	95.0	94.0
Marshall	91.4	92.8	92.1	92.1
J. Madison	87.2	89.1	92.1	89.5
Old Dominion	89.4	89.4	89.5	89.4
Ga. Southern	86.6	86.0	87.1	86.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	95.9	96.3	98.5	96.9
Troy	90.7	90.9	92.0	91.2
South Alabama	85.3	85.6	86.5	85.8
Southern Miss.	85.1	85.6	85.2	85.3
UL-Monroe	82.2	82.7	81.5	82.1
Texas St.	80.4	81.3	81.4	81.0
Arkansas St.	80.1	81.7	80.6	80.8
Sun Belt	88.8	89.4	90.2	89.5

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.7
2	Big Ten	112.0
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Atlantic Coast	106.6
5	Pac-12	104.4
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	93.1
8	Mountain West	91.8
9	Sun Belt	89.5
10	Mid-American	89.4
11	Conference USA	86.5

Conference USA Preview

If you are new to the PiRate Ratings, we have three different ratings, which are basically three different algorithms calculated using identical data.  The PiRate and Bias are closely correlated.  The Mean is a bit of an outlier.  The differences in the three ratings’ algorithms are designed to catch different outcomes in a season.  In some years, trends make one rating better than the others.  In some years, all three ratings move in lockstep and appear to be nearly identical.  Additionally, the process for updating the three different ratings differs for each one.  The PiRate has the most conservative updating formula, while the Bias has the most liberal updating formula.  The Mean has an average updating formula.

Wow!  It feels like last week, Alabama was toying with Ohio State to win the 2020-21 FBS National Championship!  If it feels like August 13th came about two months quicker than normal, maybe it has more to do with the fact that updating the PiRate Ratings was a much more involved process this Spring and Summer.  The issues with Covid totally messed up the 2020 season, and the new Transfer Portal led to players leaving school as late as July and waiting until the end of July to choose their new school, so updating the ratings became a two-fold process.  The old way of updating the ratings took place between Memorial Day Weekend and Mid-July.  Then, from Mid-July to last week, we had to perform a new update where, in essence, we had to treat about 165 of the top transfers as lost starters to their old team and as new starters to their new team.  

These 165 players represented 4293 basis points, or to put it into something meaningful to you, 4293 basis points in our ratings’ algorithms account for about 61.3 power rating points, give or take a point or two.  82 different FBS teams had a gain or loss of basis points from at least one player move involving these teams.  48 teams did not have a gain or loss of basis points, with 47 having no meaningful player movement, while the 48th team had a net of 0 basis points from their gain of a player and loss of a player where the players were basically of equal talent.

If you follow our ratings, you probably know that our 130 teams always average 100.0, as 100.0 is par.  When you see a team ranked at 111.3, that means they are 11.3 points better than the average team.  If a team is ranked at 92.8, that means they are 7.2 points weaker than the average team.  Thus, if there are 130 teams, and 100 is par, the grand total of team ratings must be 13,000.  So, if 82 teams had their ratings altered by a total of 61.3 points, the other 48 teams had to have their ratings altered as well so that the total was 13,000.  Those 61.3 points were not all in the same direction.  32.6 points came from improvement, while 28.7 points came from weakening.  The grand total of -3.9 points had to be distributed to the other 48 teams.  Basically 39 teams lost one tenth of a point, while the best nine teams of the 48 stayed stat.

Today, we begin previewing our first FBS conference.  Coming in at 11th place (last place) among the conferences is Conference USA.  Once considered an improved version of the Sun Belt Conference, CUSA has fallen several notches behind their Southern Group of 5 rival.  

In July, CUSA held its annual preseason meeting, and the media voted their preseason picks.  Here it is:

2021 CUSA Football Preseason Poll

EAST DIVISION

1. Marshall (17)
2. Florida Atlantic (6)
3. WKU (1)
4. Charlotte
5. Middle Tennessee
6. FIU
7. Old Dominion

WEST DIVISION

1. UAB (15)
2. UTSA (9)
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Southern Miss
5. Rice
6. North Texas
7. UTEP

How does this compare to the PiRate Ratings?  Take a look at our preseason ratings.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	76.3	77.2	74.4	76.0
CUSA Averages	84.1	84.8	84.4	84.4

While the PiRate Ratings are designed only to estimate the result of each team’s next game, we issue predicted standings every year just for fun.  Just because a team is ranked ahead of another, it doesn’t mean we are predicting them to win.  Our ratings have built in alterations to every team’s power rating based on depth and experience.  A team lacking depth may see their power rating fall as the season goes along, and we perceive that these poor depth teams will begin to show fatigue.  Likewise, a team with a lot of talent but low experience may see their power rating rise as the season goes along, and we perceive that these lesser experienced players gain enough experience for the game to slow down to them.

Here are our predicted won-loss records for CUSA.

CUSA East	Conf.	Overall
Marshall	6-2	8-5
Florida Atlantic	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	4-4	5-7
Western Kentucky	4-4	5-7
Middle Tennessee	3-5	5-7
Old Dominion	0-8	1-11
CUSA West	Conf.	Overall
UTSA	7-1	10-3 *
UAB	7-1	8-4
Rice	6-2	7-5
Louisiana Tech	6-2	7-5
Southern Miss.	3-5	4-8
UTEP	1-7	3-9
UTSA picked to win CUSA Championship Game

2019 Conference USA Football Preview

Welcome to the 2019-2020 College Football season on the SS Touchdown, your favorite PiRate ship of analytical merriment.

The PiRates have spent hours upon hours doing research this summer getting ready for another football season.  2018 was an incredible year for our ratings, as we finished at the top of the Prediction Tracker against the spread in college football, and the best against the spread and at picking winners in NFL football.  We have seen a steady bump in additional readers, so we hope we can follow up with another great year.

Today, we begin previewing one NCAA FBS conference per day for the next 11 days.  In past years, we published lengthy previews, but after hearing from a lot of you tell us that you come here for the stats, we are going to try to become the Sergeant Joe Friday of football, “Just the Stats.”  Oh, we’ll throw in a little Joe Gannon and include something from out of left field when something warrants it.

We begin with Conference USA, the #11 rated conference to begin the PiRate Ratings season.

The Official Media Poll

Conference USA Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes
1	Marshall	14
2	Florida Int’l.	9
3	Florida Atlantic	3
4	Middle Tennessee	0
5	Western Kentucky	0
6	Old Dominion	0
7	Charlotte	0
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes
1	North Texas	20
2	Southern Miss.	4
3	Louisiana Tech	0
4	UAB	2
5	UTSA	0
6	Rice	0
7	UTEP	0

For some reason, Conference USA did not release the total vote count by the media.  We only received the First Place Votes and position each team finished in the voting.  Additionally, the media did not vote on an overall champion.

 

The PiRate Ratings

Preseason PiRate Ratings–CUSA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Int’l.	93.6	93.7	94.4	93.9
Marshall	92.9	92.6	93.8	93.1
Florida Atlantic	91.7	91.1	92.4	91.7
Middle Tennessee	90.5	90.0	90.6	90.4
Western Kentucky	87.5	88.7	89.0	88.4
Charlotte	86.6	87.0	87.0	86.9
Old Dominion	75.1	76.0	75.1	75.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Miss.	93.4	92.2	93.7	93.1
North Texas	92.5	92.3	93.4	92.7
Louisiana Tech	90.7	90.8	90.8	90.7
U A B	88.2	89.1	88.7	88.7
U T S A	77.5	80.0	77.2	78.2
Rice	77.7	78.8	77.0	77.9
U T E P	67.9	72.6	68.3	69.6
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.8	86.5	86.5

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  Then, if the Captain didn’t like the result, he swung his sword and chose them by himself.  Actually, the conference records had to be balanced, and all the half-win votes made it a mess, so it’s probably 100% his opinion.

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos	Team	CUSA	Overall
1	Florida Atlantic	6-2	8-5
2	Marshall	6-2	9-3
3	Florida Int’l.	5-3	7-5
4	Western Kentucky	4-4	5-7
5	Middle Tennessee	4-4	5-7
6	Charlotte	3-5	5-7
7	Old Dominion	1-7	2-10
West Division
Pos	Team	CUSA	Overall
1	Southern Miss.	7-1	9-4*
2	Louisiana Tech	6-2	9-3
3	North Texas	6-2	7-5
4	UAB	5-3	8-4
5	UTSA	2-6	3-9
6	Rice	1-7	1-11
7	UTEP	0-8	1-11
*	Southern Miss. picked to win CUSA Championship

 

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team
Bahamas	Southern Miss.
First Responder	Marshall
Gasparilla	Cincinnati
New Mexico	Louisiana Tech
New Orleans	UAB
Alternate Bowl Teams
Frisco	Florida Int’l
Independence	North Texas

Coaches That Could Move To FBS Power Conference Schools

Seth Littrell–North Texas

Lane Kiffin–Florida Atlantic

Jay Hopson–Southern Miss.

 

Coaches on The Hot Seat

Dana Dimel–UTEP

Frank Wilson–UTSA

Bobby Wilder–Old Dominion

 

Top Quarterbacks

Mason Fine–North Texas

Tyler Johnson III–UAB

James Morgan–Florida Int’l.

 

Best Offense

North Texas

Florida Int’l.

Marshall

 

Best Defense

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

 

Coming Tomorrow–The Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

2018 Conference USA Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.

Some of our Group of 5 Conference won-loss predictions were figured before the beginning of August preseason practices. Thus, it could be that a player or players on some teams have already suffered season-ending or multiple game injuries or have left their teams, and these won-loss predictions no longer accurately reflect our ratings. We hope that by the time we preview the Power 5 conferences, we will know who is not going to be available (players and head coaches).

 

Conference USA is an interesting league. Annually, it comes in as the second weakest conference overall to begin each season, sometimes just a fraction ahead of the Sun Belt. Yet. this league produces a plethora of bowl-eligible teams. Last year was no different, as 10 of the 14 schools earned bowl eligibility, and nine received bowl invitations.

Last year, after a slow start that saw his team lose big to Navy and Wisconsin and then suffer a heartbreaking loss at Buffalo, Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic team caught fire and won their final 10 games. Included in the season-ending sweep were a CUSA Championship Game title and a victory in the Boca Raton Bowl, both by fat margins. The Owls finished the season averaging better than 40 points and almost 500 total yards per game, but Kiffin will have to rebuild on this side of the ball. Expect defense to help FAU contend for another conference title.

Marshall and Middle Tennessee should be FAU’s chief competition for the title. Coach Doc Holliday is one of the best recruiters in the Group of 5 conferences, and he has a lot of experienced talent returning to Marshall. If not for the fact that the Thundering Herd will have to break in a new quarterback and has no player that has thrown even one pass for the school in a game. Additionally, there will be a new offensive coordinator, as Tim Cramsey comes to Huntington from Sam Houston State and brings a new offense.  Of course, his 2017 SHU offense merely averaged better than 43 points per game and proved to be powerful running and passing the ball.

Middle Tennessee has the top returning quarterback in the division in Brent Stockstill, but the Blue Raiders have an iffy secondary and could be forced to outscore opponents every week.

The West Division looks like a three-team race. North Texas, Lousiana Tech, and UAB could finish in a three-way tie, with Southern Mississippi a distant fourth. Having two of the weakest FBS teams in the same division in Rice and UTEP, means that the other four division rivals can almost count on two conference victories already.

North Texas has the top overall quarterback in the league and maybe the best overall in the Lone Star State in Mason Fine. As a sophomore last season, he finished 6th nationally in passing yards, and he is the leading passing yardage leader among returning quarterbacks. Fine has most of his receiving corps returning this year, so if he gets just a little better pass protection, he could lead the Mean Green to the best season in Denton since Hayden Fry coached there in the late 1970’s. UNT Coach Seth Littrell is on a fast track to taking over a big time program. Every stop along the way, the team he has coached as an assistant set passing and total offense records. Mentoring Fine is not the first time he has trained a top prospect into a big-time talent. He previously tutored Nick Foles at Arizona.

UAB coach Bill Clark takes a back seat to nobody. How’s this for an incredible feat of wizardry? Clark stayed with the program when the school dropped football for two seasons. With just a handful of recruits to work with and a promise of playing again in the future, he recruited enough talent and then “coached ’em up.” Picked to maybe win two games by most pundits last year in their return to the game, UAB enjoyed an 8-win season and bid to the Bahamas Bowl. With 14 starters returning from last year’s first team back in football and a decent recruiting class, UAB should be right there with North Texas in the West Division race.

Skip Holtz is the big name in the West Division of CUSA, and his Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have to be considered one of the tri-favorites in this division. His team underperformed a bit last year but still managed to win seven times and make an appearance in the Frisco Bowl, where LT looked more like the team people expected them to be, dusting SMU 51-10. The Techsters have a lot of returning talent, and if said talent plays more like they did in the bowl and less like they did against Southern Miss and Rice, then the Bulldogs could make it back to the top of the division.

Here is how the CUSA media voted in the preseason poll.

Team
East Division	1st Place Votes
1. Florida Atlantic	22
2. Marshall	4
3. Middle Tennessee	0
4. Florida Int’l.	0
5. Western Kentucky	0
6. Old Dominion	0
7. Charlotte	0
Team
West Division	1st Place Votes
1. North Texas	18
2. Louisiana Tech	4
3. UAB	3
4. Southern Miss.	1
5. UTSA	0
6t. Rice	0
6t. UTEP	0

There were no votes for overall conference champion.

The PiRate Ratings basically confirm the media’s preseason opinions.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-0	102.0	103.0	103.3	102.8
Marshall	0-0	0-0	94.3	97.1	95.0	95.5
Middle Tennessee	0-0	0-0	91.4	93.4	93.0	92.6
Old Dominion	0-0	0-0	87.5	91.3	89.0	89.3
Florida Int’l.	0-0	0-0	82.0	86.8	82.6	83.8
W. Kentucky	0-0	0-0	80.4	84.6	81.2	82.1
Charlotte	0-0	0-0	76.2	78.7	76.3	77.1
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	0-0	0-0	93.8	96.4	95.2	95.1
N. Texas	0-0	0-0	93.0	96.3	93.6	94.3
U A B	0-0	0-0	91.1	93.6	91.5	92.1
Southern Miss.	0-0	0-0	81.6	85.0	82.1	82.9
U T S A	0-0	0-0	80.2	85.6	81.6	82.5
Rice	0-0	0-0	71.4	74.5	69.7	71.9
U T E P	0-0	0-0	69.3	72.5	68.6	70.1
CUSA Averages			85.3	88.5	85.9	86.6

New Coaches

When a large majority of schools gain bowl eliibility, there are not going to be a lot of coaching dismissals. Unless coaches get better jobs, they will return to their respective schools. As mentioned previously, Rice and UTEP ranked in the bottom 10 of all FBS schools last year, and these two teams will welcome new leaders.

Rice hired MIke Bloomgren and hopes to get the same results that Bloomgren produced as offensive coordinator at Stanford. He also has experience coaching with the New York Jets during the Rex Ryan era. The Owls will use power running mixed with play-action passing and hope to improve on 16 points and 330 yards per game on offense. Thanks to home games with Prairie View and UTEP, Bloomgren should double the win total from one to two.

UTEP wore the collar last year, going 0-12 and losing by an average of 25 points per game. The Miners hired 55-year old Dana Dimel, who for the last decade has been the offensive coordinator at Kansas State. Dimel has past head coaching stops at Wyoming and Houston. He succeeded in Laramie but failed in Houston. In year one, he faces a gargantuan rebuilding process, but you cannot really go south from 0-12, unless you repeat with another 0-12 that includes a loss to an FCS team. Northern Arizona will be a tough FCS opponent for the Miners.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

East
Team	Conference	Overall
Florida Atlantic	8-0	11-2 *
Marshall	7-1	9-3
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5
Old Dominion	4-4	6-6
Western Kentucky	3-5	5-7
Florida Int’l.	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	0-8	1-11
West
Team	Conference	Overall
North Texas	6-2	9-4
UAB	6-2	9-3
Louisiana Tech	6-2	8-4
Southern Miss.	4-4	5-7
UTSA	3-5	5-7
Rice	1-7	2-11
UTEP	0-8	1-11
* Fla. Atlantic picked to win CUSA Championship Game

Bowl Tie-ins
CUSA does not have a set bowl order. They send teams to bowls to create the best overall matchups.

These are the bowls tie-ins for 2018.

Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas
Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton, FL
Gasparilla Bowl in St. Petersburg, FL
Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, HI
Heart of Dallas Bowl in Dallas, TX
New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, NM
New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, LA

There are secondary bowl agreements with the Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas, and the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana, if those bowl need at-large alternates.

Coming Tomorrow–The Mid-American Conference

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 9 Update

Three More Tickets Punched

Horizon League Championship

Butler 59  Milwaukee 44

 The Bulldogs held Milwaukee to 30% shooting from the field, and Matt Howard connected on seven of nine shots to pace Butler with 18 points, as the defending National Final runner-up earned another spot in the Big Dance.

 Summit League Championship

Oakland 90  Oral Roberts 76 

The Golden Grizzlies displayed a great offensive show with the aid of numerous first half steals by Drew Valentine and Reggie Hamilton to build a double-digit lead by the break.  After withstanding an early second half run by the Golden Eagles, Oakland pulled away to win the automatic bid.  

Keith Benson topped Oakland with 28 points and 14 rebounds.  Hamilton added 25 with six assists, while Will Hudson recorded a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds.

 

Sunbelt Conference Championship

U A L R  64  North Texas  63 

The Trojans won their first Sunbelt Championship and earned their first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 1990.

 

SBC Player of the Year Solomon Bozeman drove from the backcourt to the left side of the top of the key and drained a three-pointer with 1.5 seconds remaining to give UALR the decisive points.  Bozeman scored a game-high 20 points. 

North Texas had led by seven points with less than two minutes to go, but the Mean Green wilted under the Trojan pressure defense.  With one last chance to try to win, UNT committed a turnover on the inbounds pass. 

11 Automatic Qualifiers To Date

Team	Conference	Record
Arkansas-Little Rock	Sunbelt	19-16
Belmont	Atlantic South	30-4
Butler	Horizon	23-9
Gonzaga	West Coast	24-9
Indiana State	Missouri Valley	20-13
Morehead State	Ohio Valley	24-9
Oakland	Summit	25-9
Old Dominion	Colonial	27-6
St. Peter’s	Metro Atlantic	20-13
UNC-Asheville	Big South	19-13
Wofford	Southern	21-12

 

Two Tickets To Be Punched Tonight

Big Sky Tournament Championship @ 9PM ET On ESPN2

#2 Montana (21-9) at #1 Northern Colorado (20-10)

 

Semifinal Round

Montana 57  Weber State 40

Northern Colorado 73  Northern Arizona 70

 

These two split their regular season series with Northern Colorado winning 63-45 in Greeley, and Montana winning 55-42 in Missoula.  Tonight’s game will be played at Butler-Hancock Hall in Greeley, so Northern Colorado will enjoy the home court advantage. 

This game is a great study in contrasts.  Northern Colorado is a quicker team, but Montana is a stronger team.  Northern Colorado has one exceptionally dominant player, while Montana has more, albeit less exceptional, weapons.

 

The Bears’ offense runs through 6-1 senior guard Devon Beitzel.  Beitzel averages a league-best 21 points per game, and he is deadly at the free throw line, where he connects on 91% of his tosses. 

The rest of the team collectively shoots under 41% from the field and commits more turnovers than assists, so if the Grizzlies can stop Beitzel, or at least limit his touches, they have a chance of defending their crown.

 

Montana has the dominant big man in the conference in 6-11/260 senior center Brian Qvale.  If the Grizzlies can keep this game a half-court affair, they stand a great chance of winning with Qvale plugging the middle on defense and controlling the boards at both ends of the court.  Qvale averages 15 points and nine boards a game, and he had a double-double with 16 points and 17 rebounds in the semifinal round.  Montana likes to limit possessions, so those numbers are even more impressive than they look. 

In the win over UNC, Montana held the Bears to 23.3% shooting, while they shot just 32.6% in the loss at Greeley.

 

It is our opinion that the visiting number two seed will pull off the mild upset over the host numbone seed, but it is not a strong feeling. 

 Northeast Conference Tournament Championship @ 7PM ET On ESPN2

#3 Robert Morris (18-13) at #1 Long Island (26-5)

Semifinal Round

Long Island 69  Central Connecticut 67

Robert Morris 64  Quinnipiac 62

Brooklyn has not been this excited over one of their own sports teams since the Dodgers won the 1955 World Series.  Long Island is one of the most exciting teams in the nation, and their 26-5 record has throngs of Brooklynites cramming into the Wellness, Recreation, and Athletic Center.  The WRAC holds just 2,500 seats, but you can bet that more than that amount will find their way into the game tonight, as they “Pack the WRAC.” 

Those fans will be converging to the corner of Ashland and Dekalb tonight, dressed in all white, to watch what could be a blowout win for their team.   

LIU is on a roll.  The Blackbirds have won 12 games in a row (longest current streak in the nation) and 20 of their previous 21 games.  They average almost 83 points per game.  The Blackbirds have exceptional depth with eight players capable of scoring 15 or more points. 

 

The Blackbirds pose difficult matchups with their roster, as they rely on quick guards and medium-sized forwards with great leaping ability to play at a fast pace.  There is no center on the roster, but the two 6-7 forwards have controlled the boards in most games this year. 

Those forwards are Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere, who team up for 25.4 points and 15.7 rebounds per game.

 5-10 backup guard Jason Brickman plays just 22 minutes per game, but he leads the team with 5.3 assists per game.  When he comes in the game, the pace picks up, and the Blackbirds shoot a lot of threes in transition.

 

Robert Morris is definitely not cannon fodder.  The Colonials are the two-time defending NEC Tournament champions, and they believe they can three peat even on the road in hostile conditions. 

The Colonials have won eight games in a row, relying on a stellar defense that limits possessions and pressures the guards.  They are missing their leading scorer, as 5-9 guard Karon Abraham’s season ended two weeks ago with a torn Achilles Tendon.  On the positive side, Abraham missed RMU’s win at LIU on December 2, as he was serving a multi-game suspension. 

Velton Jones and Russell Johnson will have to shine tonight for the Colonials to pull off the upset.  The duo are the only double figure scorers left, but both shoot less than 39% from the field. 

Without Abraham, RMU shoots just 33.7% from behind the arc, so the only way they can possibly win tonight is to replicate the formula that was successful more than three months ago—control the tempo and prevent LIU from getting off any uncontested three-pointers. 

We believe this game will begin slowly with RMU taking the lead in the early stages.  Somewhere in the first half, LIU will go on one of their patented runs and gain the lead.  Then, a second spurt will give them a commanding lead.  RMU might cut into that lead, but we believe in the end, the Blackbirds will be celebrating at the WRAC.  We do not believe the Brooklynites will be crying “Wait ‘Til Next Year.”  This will be like October of 1955 in the borough.

 

Yesterday’s Other Tournament Results

Atlantic 10 Conference

First Round

LaSalle 75  St. Bonaventure 73  2ot

St. Joseph’s 71  George Washington 59  ot

Rhode Island 70  St. Louis 61

Dayton 78  U Mass 50

 

Big East Conference

First Round

Connecticut 97  DePaul 71

Rutgers 76  Seton Hall 70 ot

South Florida 70  Villanova 69

Marquette 87  Providence 66 

M A C

First Round

Bowling Green 74  Northern Illinois 54

Ohio U 74  Toledo 57

Akron 67  Eastern Michigan 53

Buffalo 64  Central Michigan 50

 

M E A C

First Round

MD-Eastern Shore 87  F A M U 85  2ot

S. C. State 64  Delaware State 59 

Ivy League Playoff Set

Princeton defeated rival Penn 70-58 last night in Philadelphia, forcing a one-game playoff for the Ivy League’s automatic berth.  Princeton (24-6) will take on co-champion Harvard (23-5) Saturday afternoon at 4PM Eastern Time.  The game will be played at Yale University in New Haven, CT, and it can be seen live on ESPN3.com.

Princeton has appeared in all seven Ivy League tiebreaking playoff games in the history of the league.  This is Harvard’s first Ivy League basketball championship of any kind.  The Crimson last appeared in the NCAA Tournament in 1946. 

There is a chance that the loser of this game could hold a slim chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.  Harvard is ranked #35 in the RPI, while Princeton is ranked #49.  Harvard has two wins over top 50 teams as well as three losses.  Their biggest win was at Boston College.  Princeton has just one win against the top 50 and two losses.  For the Ivy to earn two bids, the Tigers have to win Saturday and hope Harvard’s high RPI is enough to earn the second bid. 

Conference Tournaments In Action Today

Big 12 Conference

Tournament Site: Kansas City

1^st Round Games

#8 Nebraska (19-11) vs. #9 Oklahoma State (18-12)  12:30 PM ET

#5 Colorado (19-12) vs. #12 Iowa State (16-15)  3 PM ET

#7 Baylor (18-12) vs. #10 Oklahoma (13-17)  7PM ET

#6 Missouri (22-9) vs. #11 Texas Tech (13-18) 9:30 PM ET 

Big East Conference

Tournament Site: New York City

2^nd Round Games

#8 Georgetown (21-9) vs. #9 Connecticut (22-9)  12 Noon ET on ESPN

#5 St. John’s (20-10) vs. #13 Rutgers (15-16)  Approx. 2:15 PM ET on ESPN

#7 Cincinnati (24-7) vs. #15 South Florida (10-22)  7 PM ET on ESPN

#6 West Virginia (20-10) vs. #11 Marquette (19-13)  Approx. 9:15 PM ET on ESPN 

Conference USA

Tournament Site: El Paso, TX

1^st Round Games

#8 East Carolina (16-14) vs. #9 Central Florida (19-10)  1 PM ET

#5 Southern Miss (21-9) vs. #12 Tulane (13-16)  3:30 PM ET

#6 Marshall (21-10) vs. #11 Houston (12-17)  7:30 PM ET

#7 S M U (17-13) vs. #10 Rice (13-17)  10 PM ET 

M E A C

Tournament Site: Winston-Salem, NC

Note: The MEAC has a unique way of scheduling their tournament.  As a result, one first round game will be played today as well as two quarterfinal round games.  The other two quarterfinal round games will be played Thursday. 

1^st Round

#6 Norfolk State () vs. #11 Howard ()  3 PM ET

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman (20-11) vs. #9 South Carolina State (10-21)  7 PM ET

#2 Hampton (21-8) vs. #10 Maryland-Eastern Shore (9-21)  9:30 PM ET 

Mountain West Conference

Tournament Site: Las Vegas

1^st Round

#8 Wyoming (10-20) vs. #9 T C U (10-21)  5 PM ET 

Pac-10 Conference

Tournament Site: Los Angeles

1^st Round

#8 Stanford (15-15) vs. #9 Oregon State (10-19)  9 PM ET on Fox Sports Net

#7 Oregon (14-16) vs. #10 Arizona State (12-18)  11:30 PM ET on Fox Sports Net 

Southland Conference

Tournament Site: Katy, TX (Houston Area)

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Northwestern State (LA) (18-13) vs. #7 Texas-San Antonio (16-13)  1 PM ET

#3 Sam Houston (17-12) vs. #6 Stephen F. Austin (18-10)  3:30 PM ET

#1 McNeese State (19-10) vs. #8 Nicholls State (14-13)  7 PM ET

#4 Texas State (15-15) vs. #5 Southeastern Louisiana (15-13)  9:30 PM ET 

S W A C

Tournament Site: Garland, TX (Dallas-Ft. Worth Area) 

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Jackson State (16-14) vs. #7 Prairie View (10-21)  12:30 PM ET

#1 Texas Southern (18-11) vs. #8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (7-23)  9 PM ET

W A C

Tournament Site: Las Vegas

1^st Round

#5 Hawaii (18-11) vs. #8 San Jose State (15-14)  3 PM ET

#6 Nevada (12-18) vs. #7 Fresno State (14-16)  5:30 PM ET