The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 17, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:39 am
Date1/17/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaArizonaVillanovaAuburn
2HoustonBaylorKansasLSU
3KentuckyIllinoisPurdueDuke
4TennesseeTexasXavierConnecticut
5WisconsinTexas TechIowa St.UCLA
6IowaMichigan St.AlabamaOhio St.
7USCSeton HallNorth CarolinaIndiana
8Loyola (Chi.)ProvidenceOklahomaMarquette
9BYUColorado St.West VirginiaFlorida
10San Diego St.Mississippi St.Wake ForestMiami (Fla.)
11Texas A&MOregonTCUCreightonSan FranciscoSaint Mary’s
12Murray St.DavidsonUABChattanooga
13IonaGrand CanyonVermontOakland
14ToledoTowsonWagnerSouth Dakota St.
15UC-IrvineNavyLibertyPrinceton
16Texas St.Montana St.Gardner-WebbTexas SouthernNicholls St.Norfolk St.

Last 4 Byes: Wake Forest, Miami (Fla.), Texas A&M, Oregon

Last 4 In: TCU, Creighton, San Francisco, Saint Mary’s

First 4 Out: Wyoming, Belmont, Arkansas, Michigan

Next 4 Out: Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Boise St., St. Bonaventure

January 10, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date1/10/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1BaylorHoustonLSUArizona
2GonzagaAuburnKansasPurdue
3VillanovaIllinoisDukeUSC
4TennesseeKentuckyTexasMichigan St.
5UCLAXavierConnecticutTexas Tech
6AlabamaOhio St.WisconsinSeton Hall
7Loyola (Chi.)IowaBYUIndiana
8Iowa St.North CarolinaOklahomaVirginia Tech
9West VirginiaSan Diego St.San FranciscoProvidence
10Saint Mary’sMississippi St.Washington St.Marquette
11Colorado St.MemphisFloridaBoise St.Wake ForestMichigan
12BelmontChattanoogaDavidsonUAB
13OhioIonaTowsonNew Mexico St.
14OaklandUC-IrvineWagnerPrinceton
15VermontSouth Dakota St.LibertyNavy
16Texas St.Weber St.Gardner-WebbNicholls St.Texas SouthernHoward

Last Four Byes: Washington St., Marquette, Colorado St., Memphis

Last Four In: Florida, Boise St., Wake Forest, Michigan

First Four Out: Clemson, Wyoming, VCU, TCU

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Murray St., Fresno St., Creighton

January 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology–January 7, 2022

Date1/7/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1BaylorGonzagaHoustonArizona
2KansasVillanovaAuburnLSU
3DukePurdueTexasTennessee
4IllinoisMichigan St.USCKentucky
5AlabamaUCLAConnecticutIowa St.
6WisconsinXavierOhio St.Texas Tech
7Loyola (Chi.)Seton HallBYUIndiana
8IowaColorado St.W. VirginiaN. Carolina
9OklahomaVa.TechSan FranciscoMississippi St.
10ProvidenceTCUFloridaWake Forest
11Saint Mary’sMichiganSan Diego St.MemphisTexas A&MClemson
12ChattanoogaBelmontDavidsonUAB
13IonaOhioVermontTowson
14WagnerSouth Dakota St.NavyOakland
15Grand CanyonUC-IrvineLibertyPrinceton
16LouisianaWeber St.Nicholls St.Gardner-WebbTexas SouthernHoward

First Four Out

Creighton
Louisville
Florida St.
Cincinnati

Next Four Out

Minnesota
Wyoming
Boise St.
Washington St.

Process: The PiRate Ratings use a combination of NET Rankings, Computer Rankings, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, The Eye-Test, and unfortunately Politics to attempt to mimic what the NCAA Selection Committee does leading up to Selection Sunday.

January 3, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:27 am
Date1/3/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1BaylorPurdueArizonaGonzaga
2HoustonDukeKansasAuburn
3KentuckyLSUTennesseeVillanova
4TexasIllinoisMichigan St.USC
5Ohio St.AlabamaUCLAConnecticut
6Texas TechLoyola (Chi.)IowaXavier
7Iowa St.ProvidenceSeton HallColorado St.
8Virginia TechBYUNorth CarolinaFlorida
9MichiganWisconsinSan FranciscoMississippi St.
10OklahomaSaint Mary’sIndianaClemson
11West VirginiaMemphisNorthwesternMinnesotaArkansasFlorida St.
12ChattanoogaDavidsonBelmontUAB
13IonaNew Mexico St.OhioTowson
14WagnerOaklandNavySouth Dakota St.
15VermontUC-IrvineLibertyPrinceton
16Georgia St.Nicholls St.Southern UtahTexas SouthernCampbellHoward

First Four Out

San Diego St.
Central Florida
Creighton
TCU

Next Four Out

Wake Forest
Boise St.
Washington St.
Texas A&M

March 18, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

NCAA First Four

Team 1Team 2Spread
Mount St. Mary’sTexas Southern1.3
DrakeWichita St.2.0
Norfolk St.Appalachian St.0.3
UCLAMichigan St.0.7

March 14, 2021

Sunday Morning Bracketology

Preliminary to Final Prediction

The PiRates have been busy these last 12 hours rearranging the seed lines and replacing unfortunate at-large teams that were bumped twice yesterday, as Georgetown and Oregon State crashed the Dance party with impressive wins.

Five games remain to be played before the regular season comes to an end, and all five games could affect the final seed lines:

In the first game today, if Colgate beats Loyola of Maryland, the Raiders could move up one line, but the bigger possibility is the movement of more than a dozen seeds if Loyola pulls the upset. Colgate figures to be a 13 or 14 seed, but Loyola would be a 16 seed with a win. Colgate is somewhat of another issue, because the Raiders are a Top 10 team according to the NET Ratings, but they did so by facing no serious competition from top 100 teams. We believe the Committee will overrule their own criteria and send Colgate down the seed line.

In game two, St. Bonaventure faces VCU for the Atlantic 10 Championship. We believe both teams are locks to get into the Dance, but the winner and loser could be one seed apart. Or, the Committee might decide that this game doesn’t really matter and keep the two teams where they have them today. This is highly likely, and we are using that belief in our second to last seeding prediction. The Committee will be faced with an afternoon headache, where many teams will have to be shifted to accommodate a potential bid-thief. In fact, they will have two different brackets and keep one depending on what happens later in the day.

LSU and Alabama face off in what brings up memories of the Game of the Year in football, but this is the SEC Basketball Championship Game. Alabama has a sliver of hope to move to the 1-seed line with an impressive win and an Illinois loss in the Big Ten, but we believe they are probably locked in at the 2-seed line. However, should LSU pull off the upset, the Tigers might move up one line and knock somebody back a line.

The big mover and shaker game is the American Athletic Conference Championship Game this afternoon. Cincinnati could steal a bid away with an upset of Houston, and at the same time knock the Cougars down a spot in the seedings. If Houston wins, then everything is copacetic.

Because it will be the last game of the day, and both teams are rather secure in their destinies, we believe the Big Ten Conference Championship Game will be meaningless toward the final seedings. Illinois has done the work to earn a 1-seed, while Ohio State has worked their way back to a 2-seed. The Committee will not have time to alter their brackets at this point, so they will choose to ignore this game.

The important news then is who are the teams on the Bubble? Rather than announce 68 teams like in other years, the Committee will announce 72 teams, the regular 68 plus four alternates in case teams like Virginia and Kansas cannot field rosters for the tournament.

As we see it this morning, Drake is the last team in the field, currently an 11-seed looking at a First Four game against possibly UCLA. Should Cincinnati upset Houston today, the Bearcats would be looking at a 12 or 13-seed, and Drake would be dropped to the alternate pool, while Boise St. or Saint Louis would be dropped from the alternate pool to the NIT. Other teams just on the thin line include Utah State and Syracuse, two teams we show in the First Four, and Wichita State and Colorado State, two teams we show in the alternate list.

The First Four seedings moved from 12 to 11 last night when Georgetown and Oregon State kicked through the Dance hall door. The Hoyas and Beavers cannot be 11 seeds. We slotted them both on the 12-seed line, but we are not totally convinced yet that they will remain there. Doing a little research, the last time a power conference team with a similar record crashed the party like this, Georgia earned a 14-seed. Because teams like Colgate, Winthrop, UNCG, and UCSB are capable of moving up a line, there is a chance for chaos if Cincinnati wins today, because the Bearcats are not deserving of a 12-seed and maybe not even a 13-seed.

Here is how our field looks this morning with Cincinnati not in the Tournament.

Date3/14/2021Morning Edition
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorIllinoisMichigan
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaHouston
3Oklahoma St.ArkansasKansasTexas
4West VirginiaPurdueFlorida St.Virginia
5TennesseeVillanovaCreightonUSC
6ColoradoTexas TechLSUMissouri
7BYUOklahomaOregonConnecticut
8ClemsonSan Diego St.WisconsinFlorida
9Virginia TechLoyola (Chi.)RutgersNorth Carolina
10Georgia TechSt. BonaventureMarylandVCU
11LouisvilleMichigan St.UCLASyracuseUtah St.Drake
12Oregon St.GeorgetownUCSBWinthrop
13Ohio ULibertyUNCGNorth Texas
14ColgateMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.DrexelGrand CanyonIona
16Oral RobertsHartfordNorfolk St.Mount St. Mary’sTexas SouthernAppalachian St.

Four Alternates

69Wichita St.
70Colorado St.
71Saint Louis
72Boise St.

Note: We have already begun putting our

Bracketnomics Data into a spreadsheet, and we will

have it completed late tonight. We will then spend

Monday looking at the data and be ready to reveal

our opinions on the field on Tuesday. Look for our

annually most read post to publish

Tuesday afternoon, approximately 3 PM Eastern

Daylight Time, giving you plenty of time to read and

then fill out the brackets in your competitions.

March 8, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/8/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaWest Virginia
3HoustonArkansasKansasVillanova
4PurdueTexasOklahoma St.Florida St.
5VirginiaTexas TechUSCTennessee
6CreightonColoradoClemsonOklahoma
7OregonMissouriWisconsinFlorida
8BYULSUVirginia TechConnecticut
9RutgersSan Diego St.Loyola (Chi.)North Carolina
10MarylandSt. BonaventureUCLALouisville
11Georgia TechMichigan St.VCUColorado St.
12Western Ky.ToledoBoise St.DrakeWichita St.Xavier
13UCSBWinthropLibertyColgate
14UNCGS. Dakota St.Morehead St.Abilene Chr.
15E. WashingtonGeorgia St.SienaCleveland St.
16NortheasternBryantGrand CanyonHartfordNorfolk St.Prairie View A&M

Teams in Bold have secured automatic bids

The Bad Side of the Bubble

69Ole Miss
70Syracuse
71Utah St.
72Saint Louis
73Seton Hall
74SMU
75St. John’s
76North Carolina St.

Bracketnomics Tutorial Release Coming This Week!

Until recently, when our breakthrough Sabertooth Baseball Game went viral due to a Facebook post that we still do not know who the benevolent benefactor of great news is, our most popular annual activity here on the PiRate Ratings has been “Bracketnomics.”

For years, we have used technical statistics and other data to isolate the real March Madness contenders from the pretenders and to eliminate certain higher seeds due to their possessing “uh-oh” stats that show them ripe for a quick upset.

We were all set to debut our latest evolution of Bracketnomics last year, until Covidnomics defeated all sports in March of 2020. It gave us extra time to scour our resources and to look for more trends, in addition to the tried and true methods we have used for years.

Coming Friday, we will release our Bracketnomics 2021 Tutorial, so you can have the weekend to look it over and use the information the best way you know how. Please let the best way you know how be a method that involves no financial risk.

The PiRate Ratings personal creation of “R+T” Rating, schedule strength, and the Four Factors still hold considerable importance, but the handicapping of each data point has changed. Other sets of data added to the mix should let you clearly see which teams have the look of past national champions, Final Four participants, and even Cinderella Mid-Majors that might be ready to wear the slipper until there are just eight teams remaining.

Oh, and if you haven’t heard about our advanced analytics tabletop baseball game that went viral over the weekend, you can check it out at our sister site: https://sabertoothbaseball.wordpress.com and order a game at https://sabertooth-baseball.square.site , or click the link in the WordPress site.

March 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/5/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaMichiganBaylorIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaWest Virginia
3VillanovaKansasArkansasHouston
4PurdueFlorida St.TexasOklahoma St.
5Texas TechCreightonVirginiaUSC
6ColoradoOklahomaTennesseeWisconsin
7MissouriClemsonFloridaBYU
8OregonVirginia TechSan Diego St.LSU
9MarylandLoyola (Chi.)RutgersUCLA
10ConnecticutNorth CarolinaLouisvilleSt. Bonaventure
11Georgia TechVCUColorado St.Boise St.
12Western Ky.ToledoDrakeMichigan St.XavierWichita St.
13UCSBColgateBelmontWinthrop
14LibertyUNCGAbilene ChristianS. Dakota St.
15E. WashingtonSienaVermontCleveland St.
16Grand CanyonJames MadisonTexas St.WagnerPrairie ViewNorfolk St.

The Outside Looking In

69Saint Louis
70Seton Hall
71SMU
72Mississippi
73Syracuse
74Utah State
75Duke
76Stanford
77Indiana
78Louisiana Tech
79Memphis
80St. John’s

February 22, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/22/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganOhio St.
2IllinoisAlabamaVillanovaHouston
3IowaOklahomaWest VirginiaVirginia
4Florida St.KansasTexasTexas Tech
5TennesseeUSCCreightonPurdue
6WisconsinMissouriVirginia TechArkansas
7ClemsonOklahoma St.FloridaBYU
8RutgersColoradoLSUOregon
9UCLALoyola (Chi.)LouisvilleSan Diego St.
10Boise St.North CarolinaMarylandDrake
11Colorado St.IndianaSt. BonaventureSeton Hall
12Western Ky.BelmontVCUXavierGa. TechSyracuse
13UCSBWinthropToledoColgate
14UNCGStephen F. AustinLibertyWright St.
15South DakotaGrand CanyonIonaVermont
16E. WashingtonWagnerTexas St.James MadisonPrairie ViewN. C. A&T

February 19, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

2/19/2021

SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganOhio St.
2IllinoisAlabamaVillanovaIowa
3OklahomaVirginiaWest VirginiaHouston
4Florida St.USCTexasTexas Tech
5KansasVirginia TechTennesseeCreighton
6PurdueWisconsinArkansasMissouri
7RutgersColoradoBYUOklahoma St.
8ClemsonFloridaLouisvilleLSU
9OregonUCLASan Diego St.Indiana
10Boise St.Loyola (Chi.)North CarolinaSeton Hall
11MinnesotaColorado St.DrakeVCU
12BelmontWestern Ky.StanfordSt. BonaventureConnecticutSaint Louis
13ToledoWinthropColgateUCSB
14Wright St.S.F. AustinLibertyUNCG
15VermontS. Dakota St.SienaGrand Canyon
16James MadisonE. WashingtonTexas St.WagnerPrairie ViewN.C. A&T

Last 4 Byes: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Colorado St., Drake

Last 4 In: Stanford, St. Bonaventure, Connecticut, Saint Louis

First 4 Out: Xavier, Maryland, Wichita St., St. John’s

Next 4 Out: Utah St., Ole Miss, Syracuse, Georgia Tech

Note: After careful perusal of the mock top four seeds released a week ago, we have discovered some new tendencies that the Committee gave more weight to than they usually do when there is a lot more interconference play. Thus, expect our bracketology to change a little next week showing seeds in somewhat different order from what they are this week. For instance, we believe that a team like Colgate may be drastically underrated, while a team like 23-1 Belmont may be overrated a bit even after winning their 20th consecutive game last night.

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