Bracketnomics 2019: Picking Your Brackets

Welcome to Bracketnomics 2019, the class that will earn you the coveted BM Degree, the Bachelor of Madness.

Because, we have a ton of stats to reveal tonight, we will limit the prose. If you need a tutorial about what Bracketnomics is, then refer to the following link:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2019/03/16/bracketnomics-2019/

We received a handful of well-thought comments to our sister page suggesting a few things that we agree with, so you will get the kitchen sink of stats this year. Because of Robert M in New Orleans, Joel S, in Orlando, and our good friend and numbers’ savant Brandon W in San Berdoo, California, we are bringing back the old Bracketnomics data combined with the new. For what it’s worth, this year, the old data and new data come to basically the same conclusions.

A Brief Primer on the Old Criteria have us look for teams meeting these criteria

1. A double-digit scoring margin, and a secondary reward to teams with a scoring margin of 8.0 to 9.99.

2. A field goal percentage margin (FG%-Def FG%) in excess of 8%

3. A combination of rebounding margin and turnover margin combined that exceed:
A. A rebound margin of 5.0 or better no matter what the turnover margin
B. A rebound margin of 3.0 to 4.9 with positive turnover margin
C. A rebound margin of 0.1 to 2.9 with with a turnover margin of 3.0 or better
D. A turnover margin of 5.0 or better no matter what the rebound margin

4. A team that averages 7.5 or more steals per game

5. An Old R+T Rating of 10.0 or better, 5.0 or better to get from 68 to 16.
The old R+T rating was (R + (0.2 * S) + (1.2 * T)
R is rebound margin
S is steals/game
T is turnover margin

6. A Strength of Schedule in excess of 0.5500 (back then using the CBS SOS)

The old method was quite accurate for many years, but the game changed when the 3-point shot became a lot more important. The Golden State Warrior effect, actually advanced basketball metrics, showed how important total shooting percentage was and not just field goal percentage. It is a no-brainer that a team that shoots 100% of its shots inside the arc and hits 53% is worse off than a team that shoots 100% of its shots from behind the arc and hits 36%. The 53% team will score .53 points per shot attempt, while the 36% team will score .54 points per shot attempt.

The Current Method uses this data
1. Strength of Schedule
2. True Shooting % Margin
3. R+T Rating

The Strength of Schedule is now calculated by our own metric, and the current R+T Rating is:
(R + (0.5 * S) + (6 – Opp S) + T

Both the old and the new method warned about any team with a negative R+T number as they were most prone to being upset very early in the tournament, and nobody with a negative R+T number ever made the Final Four, and only one ever made the Elite 8. R+T estimates extra scoring opportunities, and they lead to game-winning scoring spurts.

Now, let’s show you some stats. Here are the raw stats for all 68 teams.

Team	SOS	TSMarg	R+T	PPG Marg	FG% Marg
Abilene Christian	42.42	4.29%	5.9	11.4	4.4
Arizona St.	55.20	2.27%	6.8	4.7	3.4
Auburn	59.71	1.85%	3.9	11.5	1.5
Baylor	58.27	1.28%	9.1	4.5	1.8
Belmont	48.60	9.68%	6.0	13.5	7.4
Bradley	48.52	1.73%	-0.5	1.6	2.3
Buffalo	53.41	6.00%	10.3	14.4	4.5
Central Florida	54.86	9.52%	2.2	7.8	6.8
Cincinnati	55.48	2.94%	12.9	9.5	2.6
Colgate	47.05	5.65%	3.2	5.8	4.6
Duke	63.09	10.32%	12.1	15.9	8.2
Fairleigh-Dickinson	43.31	5.19%	-2.4	4.1	3.6
Florida	59.80	1.17%	-0.5	4.7	0.4
Florida St.	59.87	3.52%	8.3	7.8	3.4
Gardner-Webb	45.44	8.83%	-1.8	7.8	7.6
Georgia St.	51.14	5.06%	-9.6	4.2	4.2
Gonzaga	56.14	17.68%	14.3	23.7	14.3
Houston	55.02	8.04%	13.6	14.4	7.7
Iona	45.43	3.14%	-5.4	1.2	0.8
Iowa	58.09	4.52%	-0.4	4.7	0.7
Iowa St.	59.42	7.64%	1.7	9.1	5.8
Kansas	62.55	5.52%	1.9	5.3	5.4
Kansas St.	58.91	1.35%	3.5	6.6	1.7
Kentucky	60.54	9.48%	15.4	11.3	7.5
Liberty	46.27	9.22%	5.2	13.2	7.6
Louisville	61.61	6.10%	2.9	6.7	2.9
LSU	58.56	3.18%	10.1	8.4	2.6
Marquette	57.57	8.85%	2.4	8.6	5.7
Maryland	59.76	7.39%	8.6	6.2	5.7
Michigan	60.07	8.41%	3.2	11.8	5.1
Michigan St.	61.44	13.83%	11.7	13.3	10.8
Minnesota	59.44	1.81%	1.1	1.6	0.3
Mississippi St.	59.59	4.34%	6.2	7.2	3.5
Montana	46.25	5.41%	4.7	8.5	6.6
Murray St.	47.53	10.65%	7.8	15.5	8.6
Nevada	52.55	9.02%	7.0	14.0	5.7
New Mexico St.	48.05	4.78%	18.7	14.0	4.1
North Carolina	62.61	5.49%	17.4	13.2	5.1
North Carolina Central	39.47	3.50%	8.2	5.1	2.2
North Dakota St.	47.57	3.42%	-6.1	1.0	-0.5
Northeastern	51.11	6.69%	-1.9	5.8	2.5
Northern Kentucky	46.39	6.56%	7.1	10.3	6.4
Ohio St.	59.18	2.47%	-0.4	3.4	1.7
Oklahoma	60.26	4.64%	-2.5	3.0	4.3
Old Dominion	48.87	1.33%	8.4	5.4	2
Ole Miss	58.28	3.18%	2.8	5.0	1.8
Oregon	55.13	3.77%	4.6	7.6	4.8
Prairie View	43.07	-2.66%	-3.8	2.5	-1.7
Purdue	60.84	2.31%	11.4	9.4	2.5
Saint Louis	51.40	-0.81%	11.2	3.4	0.9
Saint Mary’s	55.33	5.13%	9.6	8.5	3.8
Seton Hall	58.56	0.50%	-0.6	2.4	1.4
St. John’s	55.79	-0.20%	-8.0	2.7	1.9
Syracuse	59.55	1.59%	-3.7	4.0	2.6
Temple	54.13	0.46%	-3.1	3.6	-0.2
Tennessee	59.65	9.73%	5.3	13.2	9.8
Texas Tech	58.01	9.81%	4.6	13.8	10.4
UC-Irvine	47.26	6.58%	12.2	9.6	7.9
Utah St.	52.13	8.73%	14.8	12.4	8.3
Vermont	46.62	6.53%	8.8	11.3	3.9
Villanova	58.16	4.98%	3.5	7.4	0.5
Virginia	60.36	13.19%	9.6	16.7	9.8
Virginia Commonwealth	53.22	6.84%	2.9	9.8	5.8
Virginia Tech	58.33	8.65%	6.4	11.9	7
Washington	55.60	4.43%	-3.6	5.4	3.9
Wisconsin	60.91	6.47%	-1.2	7.7	6
Wofford	52.24	7.87%	14.3	17.4	6.6
Yale	49.95	8.75%	3.6	7.9	8.7

Team	Reb Marg	TO Marg	Stl/G	Def Stl/G	Old R+T
Abilene Christian	1.2	4.6	8.7	5.6	8.4
Arizona St.	4.8	0.3	6.2	6.3	6.4
Auburn	-0.3	5.5	9.4	5.8	8.1
Baylor	6.3	-0.8	6.1	6.0	6.6
Belmont	3.8	0.9	6.8	6.1	6.3
Bradley	1.2	-0.2	5.4	5.7	2.1
Buffalo	3.9	3.7	7.3	5.1	9.9
Central Florida	2.2	0.4	5.7	5.6	3.8
Cincinnati	5.2	3.1	6.2	3.9	10.1
Colgate	4.0	-0.9	6.2	7.1	4.2
Duke	6.1	1.5	9.5	6.5	9.8
Fairleigh-Dickinson	-0.8	1.3	7.7	6.1	2.2
Florida	-0.6	3.0	7.2	6.1	4.5
Florida St.	4.7	0.8	7.0	5.5	7.0
Gardner-Webb	-0.7	1.8	6.9	5.8	2.8
Georgia St.	-6.1	3.5	8.0	5.0	-0.3
Gonzaga	6.2	3.2	7.5	5.2	11.5
Houston	7.3	0.9	6.4	5.3	9.7
Iona	-2.2	1.0	6.8	5.5	0.3
Iowa	1.0	1.0	6.2	6.7	3.4
Iowa St.	0.7	1.8	7.0	5.2	4.3
Kansas	2.5	-0.2	6.9	6.5	3.6
Kansas St.	1.1	3.6	7.6	6.2	6.9
Kentucky	9.0	-0.1	6.0	5.7	10.1
Liberty	2.2	2.6	6.4	5.2	6.7
Louisville	3.7	-1.0	4.5	5.8	3.4
LSU	5.1	1.8	9.1	6.5	9.1
Marquette	4.4	-2.0	4.8	7.0	3.0
Maryland	8.5	-3.7	4.3	7.1	5.0
Michigan	0.2	3.2	6.1	3.7	5.3
Michigan St.	8.9	-2.6	5.2	6.4	6.9
Minnesota	2.6	-0.6	4.8	6.0	2.8
Mississippi St.	3.8	0.3	8.1	5.9	5.7
Montana	2.6	1.6	6.5	5.6	5.8
Murray St.	3.7	2.1	7.6	5.8	7.7
Nevada	2.4	3.4	6.2	4.5	7.7
New Mexico St.	9.6	1.4	5.6	4.8	12.3
North Carolina	9.7	1.0	7.2	6.7	12.3
North Carolina Central	6.4	-1.9	6.3	6.0	5.4
North Dakota St.	-1.4	-0.6	4.8	5.3	-1.2
Northeastern	0.1	0.0	6.2	5.4	1.4
Northern Kentucky	4.4	0.9	6.2	5.9	6.7
Ohio St.	1.3	-0.2	5.9	5.9	2.3
Oklahoma	0.6	0.0	5.9	6.8	1.8
Old Dominion	4.9	0.4	5.6	4.9	6.6
Ole Miss	1.5	1.9	7.3	6.0	5.3
Oregon	1.8	2.1	7.8	5.2	6.0
Prairie View	-4.4	5.5	8.8	5.1	4.0
Purdue	5.2	2.4	6.5	4.8	9.4
Saint Louis	6.6	0.3	7.1	5.9	8.3
Saint Mary’s	5.6	0.1	6.0	5.0	7.0
Seton Hall	-0.1	1.8	7.0	5.8	3.4
St. John’s	-6.2	5.1	8.8	5.2	1.6
Syracuse	-2.3	3.2	8.3	6.6	3.2
Temple	-2.9	3.7	8.7	5.5	3.2
Tennessee	3.4	1.7	6.0	6.4	6.7
Texas Tech	1.9	3.3	7.3	6.4	7.3
UC-Irvine	7.4	-0.4	5.7	5.2	8.1
Utah St.	8.9	-0.3	6.2	6.1	9.8
Vermont	4.5	2.2	5.6	5.4	8.3
Villanova	2.6	0.7	5.4	5.4	4.5
Virginia	4.9	1.9	5.6	5.2	8.4
Virginia Commonwealth	1.4	2.3	8.0	6.4	5.8
Virginia Tech	2.6	2.7	6.7	5.1	7.2
Washington	-2.5	2.9	9.0	6.1	2.8
Wisconsin	-0.3	1.8	5.1	5.2	2.9
Wofford	6.5	3.1	6.9	5.5	11.6
Yale	4.7	-1.9	5.9	7.0	3.6

What you see above is the entire 68 teams field in alphabetical order.  Let’s break it down by ranking the teams according to the data.

Let’s start with the all-important class ranking.  Here is how the teams rank according to strength of schedule.  Remember that no national champion has had an SOS below 55, and only a small handful in all the years have made the Final Four.  In the years where a team with a sub-55 SOS made the Final Four, they played an opponent in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 that also had a sub-55 SOS.

Team	SOS
Duke	63.09
North Carolina	62.61
Kansas	62.55
Louisville	61.61
Michigan St.	61.44
Wisconsin	60.91
Purdue	60.84
Kentucky	60.54
Virginia	60.36
Oklahoma	60.26
Michigan	60.07
Florida St.	59.87
Florida	59.80
Maryland	59.76
Auburn	59.71
Tennessee	59.65
Mississippi St.	59.59
Syracuse	59.55
Minnesota	59.44
Iowa St.	59.42
Ohio St.	59.18
Kansas St.	58.91
Seton Hall	58.56
LSU	58.56
Virginia Tech	58.33
Ole Miss	58.28
Baylor	58.27
Villanova	58.16
Iowa	58.09
Texas Tech	58.01
Marquette	57.57
Gonzaga	56.14
St. John’s	55.79
Washington	55.60
Cincinnati	55.48
Saint Mary’s	55.33
Arizona St.	55.20
Oregon	55.13
Houston	55.02
Central Florida	54.86
Temple	54.13
Buffalo	53.41
Virginia Commonwealth	53.22
Nevada	52.55
Wofford	52.24
Utah St.	52.13
Saint Louis	51.40
Georgia St.	51.14
Northeastern	51.11
Yale	49.95
Old Dominion	48.87
Belmont	48.60
Bradley	48.52
New Mexico St.	48.05
North Dakota St.	47.57
Murray St.	47.53
UC-Irvine	47.26
Colgate	47.05
Vermont	46.62
Northern Kentucky	46.39
Liberty	46.27
Montana	46.25
Gardner-Webb	45.44
Iona	45.43
Fairleigh-Dickinson	43.31
Prairie View	43.07
Abilene Christian	42.42
North Carolina Central	39.47

39 of the 68 teams meet the minimum requirement, including Gonzaga and Houston.  Of note, Buffalo, Nevada, Wofford, and Utah State have an SOS in the range where past Cinderella teams have snuck into the Final Four.

Now, let’s look at True Shooting percentage margins.  TS% is calculated thusly:

Points / (2 * FGA + (0.475 * FTA))

True Shooting Percentage Margin is the offensive TS% minus the defensive TS%.

Team	TSMarg
Gonzaga	17.68%
Michigan St.	13.83%
Virginia	13.19%
Murray St.	10.65%
Duke	10.32%
Texas Tech	9.81%
Tennessee	9.73%
Belmont	9.68%
Central Florida	9.52%
Kentucky	9.48%
Liberty	9.22%
Nevada	9.02%
Marquette	8.85%
Gardner-Webb	8.83%
Yale	8.75%
Utah St.	8.73%
Virginia Tech	8.65%
Michigan	8.41%
Houston	8.04%
Wofford	7.87%
Iowa St.	7.64%
Maryland	7.39%
Virginia Commonwealth	6.84%
Northeastern	6.69%
UC-Irvine	6.58%
Northern Kentucky	6.56%
Vermont	6.53%
Wisconsin	6.47%
Louisville	6.10%
Buffalo	6.00%
Colgate	5.65%
Kansas	5.52%
North Carolina	5.49%
Montana	5.41%
Fairleigh-Dickinson	5.19%
Saint Mary’s	5.13%
Georgia St.	5.06%
Villanova	4.98%
New Mexico St.	4.78%
Oklahoma	4.64%
Iowa	4.52%
Washington	4.43%
Mississippi St.	4.34%
Abilene Christian	4.29%
Oregon	3.77%
Florida St.	3.52%
North Carolina Central	3.50%
North Dakota St.	3.42%
Ole Miss	3.18%
LSU	3.18%
Iona	3.14%
Cincinnati	2.94%
Ohio St.	2.47%
Purdue	2.31%
Arizona St.	2.27%
Auburn	1.85%
Minnesota	1.81%
Bradley	1.73%
Syracuse	1.59%
Kansas St.	1.35%
Old Dominion	1.33%
Baylor	1.28%
Florida	1.17%
Seton Hall	0.50%
Temple	0.46%
St. John’s	-0.20%
Saint Louis	-0.81%
Prairie View	-2.66%

Did you notice that some of the teams with the best strength of schedule are high up in the TS% margin too, and vice versa?  Think about this.  If a team played tough competition and consistently shot better overall in these games, they have to be great teams.  The object of the game is to put the ball through the goal and stop the other team from doing this.  If a team consistently did this against other teams on par with what they must face in the Big Dance in order to cut the nets on April 8, they must be the ones to consider.

Now, let’s look at the R+T rating.  This is our secret sauce at the PiRate Ratings, even though it has been revealed in other national media.  However, unless somebody at CBS or ESPN links to this site, no more than 18,000 people will read this post today, so you stand a good chance of being the only person in your pool that has this information.

Team	R+T
New Mexico St.	18.7
North Carolina	17.4
Kentucky	15.4
Utah St.	14.8
Gonzaga	14.3
Wofford	14.3
Houston	13.6
Cincinnati	12.9
UC-Irvine	12.2
Duke	12.1
Michigan St.	11.7
Purdue	11.4
Saint Louis	11.2
Buffalo	10.3
LSU	10.1
Virginia	9.6
Saint Mary’s	9.6
Baylor	9.1
Vermont	8.8
Maryland	8.6
Old Dominion	8.4
Florida St.	8.3
North Carolina Central	8.2
Murray St.	7.8
Northern Kentucky	7.1
Nevada	7.0
Arizona St.	6.8
Virginia Tech	6.4
Mississippi St.	6.2
Belmont	6.0
Abilene Christian	5.9
Tennessee	5.3
Liberty	5.2
Montana	4.7
Oregon	4.6
Texas Tech	4.6
Auburn	3.9
Yale	3.6
Kansas St.	3.5
Villanova	3.5
Michigan	3.2
Colgate	3.2
Louisville	2.9
Virginia Commonwealth	2.9
Ole Miss	2.8
Marquette	2.4
Central Florida	2.2
Kansas	1.9
Iowa St.	1.7
Minnesota	1.1
Iowa	-0.4
Ohio St.	-0.4
Florida	-0.5
Bradley	-0.5
Seton Hall	-0.6
Wisconsin	-1.2
Gardner-Webb	-1.8
Northeastern	-1.9
Fairleigh-Dickinson	-2.4
Oklahoma	-2.5
Temple	-3.1
Washington	-3.6
Syracuse	-3.7
Prairie View	-3.8
Iona	-5.4
North Dakota St.	-6.1
St. John’s	-8.0
Georgia St.	-9.6

Wow!  Look at how many mid-major teams have great R+T Ratings this year.  New Mexico State leads the pack, but their SOS is too low to make them a humongous upset team to make the Final Four.  They are dangerous still.

North Carolina is the top power conference team in this rating, just like the Tar Heels have been twice before when they won the tournament.  Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Houston are up near the top.

At the other end of the spectrum, we have a record number of teams with negative R+T numbers in the 2019 field.  That concerns us a bit.  Normally, 5 or 6 teams will enter the Dance with a negative R+T, and we will pick against all of them.  18 of the 68 teams have negative R+T ratings this year.  What that means is that it is likely that somebody with a negative R+T rating will sneak into the Sweet 16 and then get blown off the floor against a quality team that can go on scoring spurts.  Still, the bottom eight in this rating figure to have a difficult time winning just once in this Dance.

 

Here are how the teams rank in the old criteria data.

Scoring Margin

Team	PPG Marg
Gonzaga	23.7
Wofford	17.4
Virginia	16.7
Duke	15.9
Murray St.	15.5
Buffalo	14.4
Houston	14.4
Nevada	14.0
New Mexico St.	14.0
Texas Tech	13.8
Belmont	13.5
Michigan St.	13.3
Liberty	13.2
Tennessee	13.2
North Carolina	13.2
Utah St.	12.4
Virginia Tech	11.9
Michigan	11.8
Auburn	11.5
Abilene Christian	11.4
Vermont	11.3
Kentucky	11.3
Northern Kentucky	10.3
Virginia Commonwealth	9.8
UC-Irvine	9.6
Cincinnati	9.5
Purdue	9.4
Iowa St.	9.1
Marquette	8.6
Montana	8.5
Saint Mary’s	8.5
LSU	8.4
Yale	7.9
Florida St.	7.8
Central Florida	7.8
Gardner-Webb	7.8
Wisconsin	7.7
Oregon	7.6
Villanova	7.4
Mississippi St.	7.2
Louisville	6.7
Kansas St.	6.6
Maryland	6.2
Colgate	5.8
Northeastern	5.8
Old Dominion	5.4
Washington	5.4
Kansas	5.3
North Carolina Central	5.1
Ole Miss	5.0
Arizona St.	4.7
Iowa	4.7
Florida	4.7
Baylor	4.5
Georgia St.	4.2
Fairleigh-Dickinson	4.1
Syracuse	4.0
Temple	3.6
Ohio St.	3.4
Saint Louis	3.4
Oklahoma	3.0
St. John’s	2.7
Prairie View	2.5
Seton Hall	2.4
Bradley	1.6
Minnesota	1.6
Iona	1.2
North Dakota St.	1.0

FG% Margin

Team	FG% Marg
Gonzaga	14.3
Michigan St.	10.8
Texas Tech	10.4
Tennessee	9.8
Virginia	9.8
Yale	8.7
Murray St.	8.6
Utah St.	8.3
Duke	8.2
UC-Irvine	7.9
Houston	7.7
Gardner-Webb	7.6
Liberty	7.6
Kentucky	7.5
Belmont	7.4
Virginia Tech	7.0
Central Florida	6.8
Montana	6.6
Wofford	6.6
Northern Kentucky	6.4
Wisconsin	6.0
Iowa St.	5.8
Virginia Commonwealth	5.8
Nevada	5.7
Marquette	5.7
Maryland	5.7
Kansas	5.4
North Carolina	5.1
Michigan	5.1
Oregon	4.8
Colgate	4.6
Buffalo	4.5
Abilene Christian	4.4
Oklahoma	4.3
Georgia St.	4.2
New Mexico St.	4.1
Vermont	3.9
Washington	3.9
Saint Mary’s	3.8
Fairleigh-Dickinson	3.6
Mississippi St.	3.5
Arizona St.	3.4
Florida St.	3.4
Louisville	2.9
LSU	2.6
Cincinnati	2.6
Syracuse	2.6
Purdue	2.5
Northeastern	2.5
Bradley	2.3
North Carolina Central	2.2
Old Dominion	2.0
St. John’s	1.9
Baylor	1.8
Ole Miss	1.8
Kansas St.	1.7
Ohio St.	1.7
Auburn	1.5
Seton Hall	1.4
Saint Louis	0.9
Iona	0.8
Iowa	0.7
Villanova	0.5
Florida	0.4
Minnesota	0.3
Temple	-0.2
North Dakota St.	-0.5
Prairie View	-1.7

 

Rebounds/Steals/Old R+T

Team	Reb Marg
North Carolina	9.7
New Mexico St.	9.6
Kentucky	9.0
Michigan St.	8.9
Utah St.	8.9
Maryland	8.5
UC-Irvine	7.4
Houston	7.3
Saint Louis	6.6
Wofford	6.5
North Carolina Central	6.4
Baylor	6.3
Gonzaga	6.2
Duke	6.1
Saint Mary’s	5.6
Purdue	5.2
Cincinnati	5.2
LSU	5.1
Old Dominion	4.9
Virginia	4.9
Arizona St.	4.8
Yale	4.7
Florida St.	4.7
Vermont	4.5
Northern Kentucky	4.4
Marquette	4.4
Colgate	4.0
Buffalo	3.9
Belmont	3.8
Mississippi St.	3.8
Murray St.	3.7
Louisville	3.7
Tennessee	3.4
Villanova	2.6
Virginia Tech	2.6
Montana	2.6
Minnesota	2.6
Kansas	2.5
Nevada	2.4
Liberty	2.2
Central Florida	2.2
Texas Tech	1.9
Oregon	1.8
Ole Miss	1.5
Virginia Commonwealth	1.4
Ohio St.	1.3
Bradley	1.2
Abilene Christian	1.2
Kansas St.	1.1
Iowa	1.0
Iowa St.	0.7
Oklahoma	0.6
Michigan	0.2
Northeastern	0.1
Seton Hall	-0.1
Wisconsin	-0.3
Auburn	-0.3
Florida	-0.6
Gardner-Webb	-0.7
Fairleigh-Dickinson	-0.8
North Dakota St.	-1.4
Iona	-2.2
Syracuse	-2.3
Washington	-2.5
Temple	-2.9
Prairie View	-4.4
Georgia St.	-6.1
St. John’s	-6.2
Team	TO Marg
Prairie View	5.5
Auburn	5.5
St. John’s	5.1
Abilene Christian	4.6
Buffalo	3.7
Temple	3.7
Kansas St.	3.6
Georgia St.	3.5
Nevada	3.4
Texas Tech	3.3
Syracuse	3.2
Michigan	3.2
Gonzaga	3.2
Wofford	3.1
Cincinnati	3.1
Florida	3.0
Washington	2.9
Virginia Tech	2.7
Liberty	2.6
Purdue	2.4
Virginia Commonwealth	2.3
Vermont	2.2
Oregon	2.1
Murray St.	2.1
Ole Miss	1.9
Virginia	1.9
Wisconsin	1.8
Gardner-Webb	1.8
Iowa St.	1.8
LSU	1.8
Seton Hall	1.8
Tennessee	1.7
Montana	1.6
Duke	1.5
New Mexico St.	1.4
Fairleigh-Dickinson	1.3
North Carolina	1.0
Iowa	1.0
Iona	1.0
Houston	0.9
Northern Kentucky	0.9
Belmont	0.9
Florida St.	0.8
Villanova	0.7
Central Florida	0.4
Old Dominion	0.4
Arizona St.	0.3
Mississippi St.	0.3
Saint Louis	0.3
Saint Mary’s	0.1
Oklahoma	0.0
Northeastern	0.0
Kentucky	-0.1
Bradley	-0.2
Kansas	-0.2
Ohio St.	-0.2
Utah St.	-0.3
UC-Irvine	-0.4
North Dakota St.	-0.6
Minnesota	-0.6
Baylor	-0.8
Colgate	-0.9
Louisville	-1.0
North Carolina Central	-1.9
Yale	-1.9
Marquette	-2.0
Michigan St.	-2.6
Maryland	-3.7
Team	Stl/G
Duke	9.5
Auburn	9.4
LSU	9.1
Washington	9.0
Prairie View	8.8
St. John’s	8.8
Abilene Christian	8.7
Temple	8.7
Syracuse	8.3
Mississippi St.	8.1
Georgia St.	8.0
Virginia Commonwealth	8.0
Oregon	7.8
Fairleigh-Dickinson	7.7
Kansas St.	7.6
Murray St.	7.6
Gonzaga	7.5
Buffalo	7.3
Ole Miss	7.3
Texas Tech	7.3
North Carolina	7.2
Florida	7.2
Saint Louis	7.1
Iowa St.	7.0
Seton Hall	7.0
Florida St.	7.0
Wofford	6.9
Gardner-Webb	6.9
Kansas	6.9
Belmont	6.8
Iona	6.8
Virginia Tech	6.7
Montana	6.5
Purdue	6.5
Houston	6.4
Liberty	6.4
North Carolina Central	6.3
Northern Kentucky	6.2
Arizona St.	6.2
Utah St.	6.2
Iowa	6.2
Nevada	6.2
Cincinnati	6.2
Colgate	6.2
Northeastern	6.2
Michigan	6.1
Baylor	6.1
Kentucky	6.0
Saint Mary’s	6.0
Tennessee	6.0
Oklahoma	5.9
Yale	5.9
Ohio St.	5.9
Central Florida	5.7
UC-Irvine	5.7
Vermont	5.6
Virginia	5.6
New Mexico St.	5.6
Old Dominion	5.6
Villanova	5.4
Bradley	5.4
Michigan St.	5.2
Wisconsin	5.1
Marquette	4.8
North Dakota St.	4.8
Minnesota	4.8
Louisville	4.5
Maryland	4.3
Team	Def Stl/G
Michigan	3.7
Cincinnati	3.9
Nevada	4.5
Purdue	4.8
New Mexico St.	4.8
Old Dominion	4.9
Saint Mary’s	5.0
Georgia St.	5.0
Virginia Tech	5.1
Prairie View	5.1
Buffalo	5.1
Gonzaga	5.2
Wisconsin	5.2
Iowa St.	5.2
St. John’s	5.2
Virginia	5.2
UC-Irvine	5.2
Liberty	5.2
Oregon	5.2
North Dakota St.	5.3
Houston	5.3
Villanova	5.4
Vermont	5.4
Northeastern	5.4
Wofford	5.5
Iona	5.5
Florida St.	5.5
Temple	5.5
Montana	5.6
Central Florida	5.6
Abilene Christian	5.6
Kentucky	5.7
Bradley	5.7
Gardner-Webb	5.8
Murray St.	5.8
Auburn	5.8
Seton Hall	5.8
Louisville	5.8
Northern Kentucky	5.9
Mississippi St.	5.9
Saint Louis	5.9
Ohio St.	5.9
Baylor	6.0
Minnesota	6.0
North Carolina Central	6.0
Ole Miss	6.0
Fairleigh-Dickinson	6.1
Utah St.	6.1
Belmont	6.1
Florida	6.1
Washington	6.1
Kansas St.	6.2
Arizona St.	6.3
Texas Tech	6.4
Tennessee	6.4
Michigan St.	6.4
Virginia Commonwealth	6.4
Kansas	6.5
Duke	6.5
LSU	6.5
Syracuse	6.6
Iowa	6.7
North Carolina	6.7
Oklahoma	6.8
Marquette	7.0
Yale	7.0
Maryland	7.1
Colgate	7.1
Team	Old R+T
New Mexico St.	12.34
North Carolina	12.34
Wofford	11.56
Gonzaga	11.48
Cincinnati	10.11
Kentucky	10.07
Buffalo	9.85
Duke	9.85
Utah St.	9.79
Houston	9.71
Purdue	9.37
LSU	9.06
Abilene Christian	8.45
Virginia	8.39
Saint Louis	8.30
Vermont	8.25
Auburn	8.09
UC-Irvine	8.06
Murray St.	7.74
Nevada	7.73
Texas Tech	7.33
Virginia Tech	7.22
Florida St.	7.02
Saint Mary’s	6.98
Michigan St.	6.88
Kansas St.	6.87
Northern Kentucky	6.72
Tennessee	6.66
Liberty	6.66
Baylor	6.56
Old Dominion	6.55
Arizona St.	6.41
Belmont	6.25
Oregon	5.95
Montana	5.83
Virginia Commonwealth	5.78
Mississippi St.	5.73
North Carolina Central	5.39
Ole Miss	5.32
Michigan	5.31
Maryland	5.01
Villanova	4.54
Florida	4.51
Iowa St.	4.29
Colgate	4.18
Prairie View	3.98
Central Florida	3.81
Kansas	3.63
Yale	3.56
Iowa	3.43
Louisville	3.39
Seton Hall	3.39
Temple	3.24
Syracuse	3.21
Marquette	2.96
Wisconsin	2.91
Gardner-Webb	2.82
Minnesota	2.77
Washington	2.76
Ohio St.	2.27
Fairleigh-Dickinson	2.24
Bradley	2.10
Oklahoma	1.79
St. John’s	1.62
Northeastern	1.35
Iona	0.30
Georgia St.	-0.27
North Dakota St.	-1.19

 

Criteria Darlings

Which teams have criteria that most look like a Final Four participant?

These 10 teams have that look this year (in alphabetical order):

1. Cincinnati Bearcats

2. Duke Blue Devils

3. Gonzaga Bulldogs

4. Houston Cougars

5. Kentucky Wildcats

6. Michigan State Spartans

7. North Carolina Tar Heels

8. Utah St. Aggies

9. Virginia Cavaliers

10. Wofford Terriers 

You will notice that Utah State and Wofford make this list with SOS beneath the level to win the national title.  These two teams possess criteria similar to past Cinderella Final Four teams like George Mason, Wichita State, and Virginia Commonwealth.

 

You now have the information to earn your BM in Bracketnomics.  However, there will be a special Bracketnomicist here Tuesday afternoon who will show you how to use this data to pick winners of each round.  The Captain will reveal his bracket selection on Tuesday prior to 5 PM Eastern Daylight Time.  He told us to tell you that if any buccaneer or lass dare criticize his selections, they will walk the plank.  Actually, they will probably have a better bracket than him.

 

Note: Many thanks to all the PiRate members who stayed up late Sunday night/Monday morning visiting 68 different schools’ athletics’ sites to get the raw data we need to put this statistical bonanza together.