The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 9, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 9, 2008

NCAA Regular Season Summation

 

Congratulations go to Oklahoma and Florida, and my condolences go to Texas, Southern Cal, and Penn State, and Alabama.  Some biased poll voters, a couple of computer geeks, and a couple of sports elitists have determined that the Sooners and Gators are a couple hundredths of a percentage point better than the rest of the pack and deserve to play for the national title.

 

Florida lost their one game at home.  Oklahoma lost their one game on a neutral field to one of the other teams up for consideration.  Alabama’s loss on a neutral field to Florida is the exact same situation.  Texas lost on the road to an undefeated Texas Tech team on the final play of the game.  Southern Cal lost on the road at Oregon State with one late play figuring greatly in the outcome.  Penn State lost on the road at Iowa on the final play of the game.  So, the computers can tell us that Florida and Oklahoma are the two most deserving? 

 

Here are the final regular season PiRate Top 25 and the PiRate Ratings by conference:

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

140

12

1

2

Oklahoma

139

12

1

3

Southern Cal

131

11

1

4

Texas

128

11

1

5

Ohio St.

127

10

2

6

Alabama

125

12

1

7

Penn St.

125

11

1

8

Ole Miss

121

8

4

9

Texas Tech

120

11

1

10

Boise State

120

12

0

11

T C U

120

10

2

12

Oregon

120

9

3

13

Utah

118

12

0

14

Iowa

117

8

4

15

Rutgers

117

7

5

16

California

116

8

4

17

Georgia 

115

9

3

18

Oklahoma St.

114

9

3

19

Arizona

114

7

5

20

Clemson

113

7

5

21

Oregon State

113

8

4

22

Missouri

113

9

4

23

Florida State

112

8

4

24

Pittsburgh

112

9

3

25

Cincinnati

110

11

2

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Clemson

4-4

7-5

113

68

45

Florida State

5-3

8-4

112

70

42

North Carolina State

4-4

6-6

106

70

36

Boston College

5-3*

9-4

104

63

41

Wake Forest

4-4

7-5

104

56

48

Maryland

4-4

7-5

101

62

39

 

 

 

 

   
Coastal Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Virginia Tech

5-3*+

9-4

109

67

42

Georgia Tech

5-3

9-3

109

68

41

North Carolina

4-4

8-4

105

66

39

Miami

4-4

7-5

102

60

42

Virginia 

3-5

5-7

100

58

42

Duke

1-7

4-8

93

60

33

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Rutgers

5-2

7-5

117

70

47

Pittsburgh

5-2

9-3

112

66

46

Cincinnati

6-1

11-2

110

64

46

West Virginia

5-2

8-4

110

65

45

South Florida

2-5

7-5

106

68

38

Connecticut

3-4

7-5

102

64

38

Louisville

1-6

5-7

91

57

34

Syracuse

1-6

3-9

89

56

33

 

Big Ten

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

7-1

10-2

127

71

56

Penn State

7-1

11-1

125

76

49

Iowa

5-3

8-4

117

72

45

Wisconsin

3-5

7-5

107

71

36

Northwestern

5-3

9-3

105

64

41

Michigan State

6-2

9-3

104

64

40

Purdue

2-6

4-8

103

67

36

Illinois

3-5

5-7

102

65

37

Michigan

2-6

3-9

96

57

39

Minnesota

3-5

7-5

92

58

34

Indiana

1-7

3-9

79

54

25

 

Big 12

North Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

5-3*

9-4

113

74

39

Kansas

4-4

7-5

109

67

42

Nebraska

5-3

8-4

108

70

38

Colorado

2-6

5-7

95

57

38

Kansas State

2-6

5-7

92

67

25

Iowa State

0-8

2-10

86

57

29

South Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

7-1+

12-1

139

97

42

Texas

7-1

11-1

128

82

46

Texas Tech

7-1

11-1

120

85

35

Oklahoma State

5-3

9-3

114

71

43

Baylor

2-6

4-8

106

68

38

Texas A&M

2-6

4-8

90

56

34

 

Conference USA

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

East Carolina

6-2+

9-4

99

62

37

Southern Miss.

4-4

6-6

97

64

33

Memphis

4-4

6-6

92

61

31

Marshall

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Central Florida

3-5

4-8

88

46

42

U A B

3-5

4-8

84

51

33

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

7-1*

10-3

103

72

31

Rice

7-1

9-3

97

66

31

Houston

6-2

7-5

97

67

30

U T E P

4-4

5-7

87

59

28

S M U

0-8

1-11

78

57

21

Tulane

1-7

2-10

69

50

19

 

Independents

           
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Navy  

8-4

104

61

43

Notre Dame  

6-6

98

58

40

Army  

3-9

82

46

36

 

Mid American Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Bowling Green

4-4

6-6

103

68

35

Buffalo

5-3+

8-5

101

68

33

Temple

4-4

5-7

96

57

39

Ohio U

3-5

4-8

91

51

40

Kent State

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Akron

3-5

5-7

89

60

29

Miami (O)

1-7

2-10

81

54

27

           
West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

8-0

12-1

109

73

36

Western Michigan

6-2

9-3

100

63

37

Northern Illinois

5-3

6-6

98

59

39

Central Michigan

6-2

8-4

97

68

29

Eastern Michigan

2-6

3-9

88

59

29

Toledo

2-6

3-9

85

55

30

 

Mountain West Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

T C U

7-1

10-2

120

68

52

Utah

8-0

12-0

118

70

48

Brigham Young

6-2

10-2

106

67

39

Air Force

5-3

8-4

95

58

37

Colorado State

4-4

6-6

93

60

33

New Mexico

2-6

4-8

93

56

37

UNLV

2-6

5-7

85

56

29

Wyoming

1-7

4-8

85

51

34

San Diego State

1-7

2-10

76

49

27

 

Pac-10 Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

7-1

11-1

131

72

59

Oregon

7-2

9-3

120

77

43

California

6-3

8-4

116

73

43

Arizona

5-4

7-5

114

75

39

Oregon State

7-2

8-4

113

74

39

Stanford

4-5

5-7

106

64

42

Arizona State

4-5

5-7

103

63

40

U C L A

3-6

4-8

100

57

43

Washington

0-9

0-12

81

54

27

Washington State

1-8

2-11

74

49

25

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

7-1+

12-1

140

86

54

Georgia 

6-2

9-3

115

73

42

South Carolina

4-4

7-5

108

63

45

Tennessee

3-5

5-7

107

62

45

Kentucky

2-6

6-6

102

62

40

Vanderbilt

4-4

6-6

100

55

45

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Alabama

8-0

12-1

125

69

56

Ole Miss

5-3

8-4

121

74

47

L S U

3-5

7-5

106

68

38

Arkansas

2-6

5-7

102

68

34

Auburn

2-6

5-7

102

56

46

Mississippi State

2-6

4-8

97

55

42

 

Sunbelt Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

6-1

8-4

105

69

36

Florida Atlantic

4-3

6-6

90

61

29

Middle Tennessee

3-4

5-7

90

58

32

Arkansas State

4-3

6-6

89

59

30

Florida International

3-4

5-7

89

58

31

Louisiana-Lafayette

5-2

6-6

88

66

22

Louisiana-Monroe

3-4

4-8

87

56

31

* Western Kentucky

0-0

2-10

79

49

30

North Texas

0-7

1-11

70

55

15

           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009      
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008    

 

Western Athletic Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Boise State

8-0

12-0

120

74

46

Nevada

5-3

7-5

102

73

29

Louisiana Tech

5-3

7-5

94

56

38

Utah State

3-5

3-9

93

57

36

Hawaii

5-3

7-6

93

55

38

Fresno State

4-4

7-5

88

61

27

San Jose State

4-4

6-6

85

53

32

New Mexico State

1-7

3-9

74

48

26

Idaho

1-7

2-10

73

57

16

 

Here is the bowl schedule

 

Date

Time EST

Bowl

City

Team

Team

D. 20

11:00

Eagle Bank

Washington DC

Wake Forest

Navy

D. 20

2:30

New Mexico

Albuquerque

Colorado State

Fresno State

D. 20

4:30

St. Petersburg

St. Petersburg

South Florida

Memphis

D. 20

8:00

Las Vegas

Las Vegas

B Y U

Arizona

D. 21

8:15

New Orleans

New Orleans

Troy

Southern Miss.

D. 23

8:00

Poinsettia

San Diego

Boise State

T C U

D. 24

8:00

Hawaii

Honolulu

Hawaii

Notre Dame

D. 26

8:00

Motor City

Detroit

Central Michigan

Florida Atlantic

D. 27

1:00

Meineke Car Care

Charlotte

North Carolina

West Virginia

D. 27

4:30

Champs Sports

Orlando

Florida State

Wisconsin

D. 27

8:00

Emerald

San Francisco

California

Miami (Fl.)

D. 28

8:15

Independence

Shrevport

Louisiana Tech

Northern Illinois

D. 29

3:00

PapaJohns

Birmingham

N. C. State

Rutgers

D. 29

8:00

Alamo

San Antonio

Northwestern

Missouri

D. 30

4:30

Humanitarian

Boise

Nevada

Maryland

D. 30

8:00

Texas

Houston

Western Michigan

Rice

D. 30

8:00

Holiday

San Diego

Oregon 

Oklahoma State

D. 31

12:00

Armed Forces

Ft. Worth

Air Force

Houston

D. 31

2:00

Sun

El Paso

Oregon State

Pittsburgh

D. 31

3:30

Music City

Nashville

Vanderbilt

Boston College

D. 31

5:30

Insight

Tempe

Kansas

Minnesota

D. 31

7:30

Chick-fil-a

Atlanta

Georgia Tech

L S U

J. 1

11:00

Outback

Tampa

Iowa

South Carolina

J. 1

1:00

Capital One

Orlando

Georgia 

Michigan State

J. 1

1:00

Gator

Jacksonville

Clemson

Nebraska

J. 1

4:30

Rose

Pasadena

Southern Cal

Penn State

J. 1

8:30

Orange

Miami

Virginia Tech

Cincinnati

J. 2

2:00

Cotton

Dallas

Texas Tech

Ole Miss

J. 2

5:00

Liberty

Memphis

East Carolina

Kentucky

J. 2

8:00

Sugar

New Orleans

Alabama

Utah

J. 3

12:00

International

Toronto

Connecticut

Buffalo

J. 5

8:00

Fiesta

Glendale

Texas

Ohio State

J. 6

8:00

G M A C

Mobile

Tulsa

Ball State

J. 8

8:00

Nat’l Championship

Miami

Florida 

Oklahoma

December 1, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 3-6, 2008

NCAA Week 15: The Postseason Falls to BieCeS

 

With one weekend remaining in the regular season, the dreadful BCS has suffered from yet another snafu.  Oklahoma is in the Big 12 Championship Game because a computer or two has deemed the Sooners to be a tiny bit better than the Longhorns even though Texas beat them by 10 points on a neutral field.  The Big 12 should have never used BCS ranking to break three-way ties, but then again the BCS shouldn’t be there in the first place for the Big 12 brass to be dumb enough to use it as its tiebreaker.

 

I don’t advocate that Texas should be in that title game instead of Oklahoma or even Texas Tech.  I don’t believe the BCS system to be credible; the vote of Oklahoma over Texas is ridiculous, and if Texas had been voted in by a miniscule amount, it would have been just as ridiculous.

 

If Oklahoma wins this week over an inferior Missouri squad, the Sooners will play for the national title against the winner of the Alabama-Florida game.  Southern Cal, Texas Tech, and Penn State, as well as Utah, Boise State, and Ball State among other top contenders will get no chance to compete for all the marbles.

 

The Top 25 had very little movement after this past weekend.  The bowl situations started to come into focus, as information started to leak out on which bowls want which teams if they are available.  So, when you read the bowl section below, realize that these are not just predictions now; some of the teams are slotted based on leaked information from bowl scouts.

 

Personally, I believe Florida and Southern Cal are the two best teams in the nation.  The Gators’ offense is as good as any college team in 13 years, while the Trojans’ defense is the best college defense in 16 years.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

141

11

1

2

Oklahoma

134

11

1

3

Southern Cal

132

10

1

4

Texas

128

11

1

5

Ohio St.

127

10

2

6

Penn St.

125

11

1

7

Alabama

124

12

0

8

Ole Miss

121

8

4

9

Texas Tech

120

11

1

10

Boise State

120

12

0

11

T C U

120

10

2

12

Oregon

120

9

3

13

Utah

118

12

0

14

Missouri

118

9

3

15

Iowa

117

8

4

16

Georgia 

115

9

3

17

Ball State

114

12

0

18

California

114

7

4

19

Oklahoma St.

114

9

3

20

Clemson

113

7

5

21

Oregon State

113

8

4

22

Florida State

112

8

4

23

Rutgers

112

6

5

24

Cincinnati

111

10

2

25

Arizona

111

6

5

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Clemson

4-4

7-5

113

68

45

Florida State

5-3

8-4

112

70

42

Boston College

5-3*

9-3

107

65

42

North Carolina State

4-4

6-6

106

70

36

Wake Forest

4-4

7-5

104

56

48

Maryland

4-4

7-5

101

62

39

 

 

 

 

   
Coastal Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Georgia Tech

5-3

9-3

109

68

41

Virginia Tech

5-3*

8-4

106

65

41

North Carolina

4-4

8-4

105

66

39

Miami

4-4

7-5

102

60

42

Virginia 

3-5

5-7

100

58

42

Duke

1-7

4-8

93

60

33

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Rutgers

4-2

6-5

112

67

45

Cincinnati

6-1

10-2

111

65

46

West Virginia

4-2

7-4

111

66

45

Pittsburgh

4-2

8-3

109

65

44

Connecticut

3-3

7-4

105

65

40

South Florida

2-4

7-4

105

68

37

Louisville

1-5

5-6

96

59

37

Syracuse

1-6

3-9

89

56

33

 

Big Ten

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

7-1

10-2

127

71

56

Penn State

7-1

11-1

125

76

49

Iowa

5-3

8-4

117

72

45

Wisconsin

3-5

7-5

107

71

36

Northwestern

5-3

9-3

105

64

41

Michigan State

6-2

9-3

104

64

40

Purdue

2-6

4-8

103

67

36

Illinois

3-5

5-7

102

65

37

Michigan

2-6

3-9

96

57

39

Minnesota

3-5

7-5

92

58

34

Indiana

1-7

3-9

79

54

25

 

Big 12

North Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

5-3*

9-3

118

75

43

Kansas

4-4

7-5

109

67

42

Nebraska

5-3

8-4

108

70

38

Colorado

2-6

5-7

95

57

38

Kansas State

2-6

5-7

92

67

25

Iowa State

0-8

2-10

86

57

29

South Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

7-1

11-1

134

93

41

Texas

7-1

11-1

128

82

46

Texas Tech

7-1

11-1

120

85

35

Oklahoma State

5-3

9-3

114

71

43

Baylor

2-6

4-8

106

68

38

Texas A&M

2-6

4-8

90

56

34

 

Conference USA

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

East Carolina

6-2

8-4

98

62

36

Southern Miss.

4-4

6-6

97

64

33

Memphis

4-4

6-6

92

61

31

Marshall

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Central Florida

3-5

4-8

88

46

42

U A B

3-5

4-8

84

51

33

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

7-1*

10-2

104

73

31

Rice

7-1

9-3

97

66

31

Houston

6-2

7-5

97

67

30

U T E P

4-4

5-7

87

59

28

S M U

0-8

1-11

78

57

21

Tulane

1-7

2-10

69

50

19

 

Independents

           
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Navy  

7-4

100

60

40

Notre Dame  

6-6

98

58

40

Army  

3-8

86

49

37

 

Mid American Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Bowling Green

4-4

6-6

103

68

35

Buffalo

5-3

7-5

96

64

32

Temple

4-4

5-7

96

57

39

Ohio U

3-5

4-8

91

51

40

Kent State

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Akron

3-5

5-7

89

60

29

Miami (O)

1-7

2-10

81

54

27

           
West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

8-0

12-0

114

75

39

Western Michigan

6-2

9-3

100

63

37

Northern Illinois

5-3

6-6

98

59

39

Central Michigan

6-2

8-4

97

68

29

Eastern Michigan

2-6

3-9

88

59

29

Toledo

2-6

3-9

85

55

30

 

Mountain West Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

T C U

7-1

10-2

120

68

52

Utah

8-0

12-0

118

70

48

Brigham Young

6-2

10-2

106

67

39

Air Force

5-3

8-4

95

58

37

Colorado State

4-4

6-6

93

60

33

New Mexico

2-6

4-8

93

56

37

UNLV

2-6

5-7

85

56

29

Wyoming

1-7

4-8

85

51

34

San Diego State

1-7

2-10

76

49

27

 

Pac-10 Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

7-1

10-1

132

73

59

Oregon

7-2

9-3

120

77

43

California

5-3

7-4

114

72

42

Oregon State

7-2

8-4

113

74

39

Arizona

4-4

6-5

111

74

37

Arizona State

4-4

5-6

106

65

41

Stanford

4-5

5-7

106

64

42

U C L A

3-5

4-7

99

57

42

Washington

0-8

0-11

83

55

28

Washington State

1-8

2-11

74

49

25

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

7-1

11-1

141

87

54

Georgia 

6-2

9-3

115

73

42

South Carolina

4-4

7-5

108

63

45

Tennessee

3-5

5-7

107

62

45

Kentucky

2-6

6-6

102

62

40

Vanderbilt

4-4

6-6

100

55

45

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Alabama

8-0

12-0

124

69

55

Ole Miss

5-3

8-4

121

74

47

L S U

3-5

7-5

106

68

38

Arkansas

2-6

5-7

102

68

34

Auburn

2-6

5-7

102

56

46

Mississippi State

2-6

4-8

97

55

42

 

Sunbelt Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

5-1

7-4

104

68

36

Middle Tennessee

3-3

5-6

92

58

34

Arkansas State

4-2

6-5

90

60

30

Florida Atlantic

4-3

6-6

90

61

29

Louisiana-Monroe

3-4

4-8

87

56

31

Louisiana-Lafayette

4-2

5-6

86

64

22

Florida International

3-4

4-7

86

57

29

* Western Kentucky

0-0

2-9

82

51

31

North Texas

0-7

1-11

70

55

15

           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009      
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008    

 

Western Athletic Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Boise State

8-0

12-0

120

74

46

Nevada

5-3

7-5

102

73

29

Louisiana Tech

5-3

7-5

94

56

38

Utah State

3-5

3-9

93

57

36

Hawaii

5-3

7-5

91

54

37

Fresno State

4-4

7-5

88

61

27

San Jose State

4-4

6-6

85

53

32

New Mexico State

1-7

3-9

74

48

26

Idaho

1-7

2-10

73

57

16

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

   

 

 

Wednesday, December 3  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Middle Tennessee LA.-LAFAYETTE

3

34-31

   

 

 

Thursday, December 4  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

RUTGERS Louisville

19

31-12

   

 

 

Friday, December 5  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Ball State            (Detroit) Buffalo

18

42-24

   

 

 

Saturday, December 6      
Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT

1

24-23

TULSA East Carolina

9

40-31

Navy Army

14

21-7

Boston College Virginia Tech

1

21-20

CALIFORNIA Washington

34

44-10

Florida Alabama

17

31-14

Southern Cal U C L A

30

30-0

FLA. INT’L Western Ky.

7

28-21

TROY Arkansas State

17

38-21

ARIZONA Arizona State

8

35-27

WEST VIRGINIA South Florida

9

30-21

Oklahoma Missouri

16

49-33

Cincinnati HAWAII

16

26-10

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

Wednesday, December 3  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

LA.-LAFAYETTE Middle Tennessee

27-24

   

 

Thursday, December 4  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

RUTGERS Louisville

34-21

   

 

Friday, December 5  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

Ball State            (Detroit) Buffalo

37-24

   

 

Saturday, December 6  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT

21-21 to OT

TULSA East Carolina

42-34

Navy             (Philadelphia) Army

35-24

Boston Coll.   (Jacksonville) Virginia Tech

20-17

CALIFORNIA Washington

42-10

Florida                 (Atlanta) Alabama

27-17

Southern Cal U C L A

34-7

FLA. INT’L Western Ky.

30-20

TROY Arkansas State

34-24

ARIZONA Arizona State

28-20

WEST VIRGINIA South Florida

24-19

Oklahoma    (Kansas City) Missouri

44-31

Cincinnati HAWAII

27-17

 

Bowl Outlook By Conference

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

After having a new team at the top of each division for multiple weeks, Boston College and Virginia Tech both won last week when they had to win.  Now, the winner of their game will advance to the Orange Bowl, while the loser probably drops to the Champs Sports Bowl.

 

With Georgia Tech’s win over Georgia, their hometown bowl will be glad to take the Yellow Jackets.  That bowl prefers a ranked team coming off a win, and Tech fits that bill.

 

Florida State will get the Gator Bowl invitation regardless of how the ACC title game turns out.  The Gator Bowl does not want to have the loser of the title game returning to Jacksonville three weeks later.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-Georgia Tech 9-3 vs. L S U

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska

4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Wisconsin

5. Music City-North Carolina 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt

6. Meineke Car Care-Miami 7-5 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Clemson 7-5 vs. California

9. Humanitarian-Maryland 7-5 vs. Nevada

10. Hawaii (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.

 

Big East

Cincinnati has clinched a BCS Bowl spot.  The Bearcats are more than likely headed to the Orange Bowl.

 

Notre Dame’s loss to USC means the Irish may not seize one of this league’s bids.  If Rutgers beats Louisville, then there will be six, seven-win bowl eligible teams for six bowls; Notre Dame would not be eligible for a Big East Bowl, so they would become the top 6-6 at-large possibility.  Should Louisville win this week, then Notre Dame will be headed to El Paso.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College

2. Sun-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Oregon State

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo

6. Papa John’s-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Middle Tennessee State

 

Big Ten

Ohio State is almost assured to get the final BCS Bowl bid over Boise State, so the Big Ten will not have enough bowl-eligible teams for their seven allotted bids.  That may open the Motor City Bowl for a possible match of undefeated teams.

 

Although not technically official, Penn State has been mathematically eliminated from moving into the National Championship Game.  Thus, I have them “officially” in the Rose Bowl.

 

1. Rose-PENN STATE 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas

3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia

3. Outback-Iowa 8-4 vs. South Carolina

4. Champs Sports-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Alamo-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Missouri

6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas

7. Motor City-No qualifying team

 

Big 12

Missouri is being overlooked by everybody but Oklahoma this week, so I expect the Sooners to drill the Tigers.

 

With two teams headed to BCS Bowls, and with Colorado failing to upset Nebraska, this league will fall two teams short.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss

4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Oregon

6. Alamo-Missouri 9-4 vs. Northwestern

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota

8. Independence-No Qualifying Team

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

Tulsa and East Carolina are the two divisional champions, and I believe the Golden Hurricane will win the title game this week.  Rice is the best team in this league as the season ends, but the Owls will not be at the top of the list for those remaining bowl-eligible teams.  Expect to see Rice fall to the Texas Bowl.

 

Unless another bowl chooses them first, Houston may wind up in Ft. Worth playing Air Force in a rematch of a game played in the regular season.  I think Rice would be a better opponent, but the Cougars are the better drawing team. 

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Central Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Rice 9-3 vs. Notre Dame

6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Navy is headed to the Eagle Bank Bowl regardless of their outcome with Army this week.  We know for sure that Maryland will not be their opponent in a possible in-state rivalry game.  The Terps have final exams that week, and they will not accept a bowl bid during exam week.

 

Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl at 6-6.  They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team.  I believe they will be headed to Houston.

 

1. Texas (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Rice

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

M A C

Ball State should handle Buffalo this week.  If they do, I expect the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC to release Boise State to come to Detroit in a battle of the unbeatens.  It will thus become the top non-BCS bowl.

 

The MAC will benefit from the failure of other conferences not being able to fulfill their bowl quotas.  Three more teams (Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Buffalo) have seven wins, so there will be one extra bowl invitation for the MAC.  I have Western Michigan playing in an at-large bowl, but there is no news leaks about where they might be headed.  I have them headed west based on the fact that Boise State won’t be selected by the Poinsettia Bowl as they have that right.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Boise State

2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Southern Miss.

4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. T C U

 

Mountain West

Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee.  It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.

 

BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time.  TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Arizona

3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Western Michigan

4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State

5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon made the Rose Bowl officials happy when they defeated Oregon State.  Now Southern Cal needs to defeat UCLA to return to Pasadena for another game.

 

Arizona State can still become bowl-eligible with a win at Arizona, but I think the Wildcats have a huge revenge motive that will end the season for the Sun Devils.  Thus, I have the Pac-10 falling two spots shy of fulfilling its obligations.

 

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State

2. Holiday-Oregon 9-3 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Rutgers

4. Las Vegas-Arizona 7-5 vs. B Y U

5. Emerald-California 8-4 vs. Wake Forest

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

What happens if Florida beats Alabama in overtime or by one point in regulation?  Might there be a rematch in a month for the National Championship?  It’s not going to happen for two reasons.  First, a loss of any kind will put Alabama behind both Oklahoma and Texas.  Second, I believe Florida will win this week by double digits.  No matter which team loses, it will be headed to New Orleans.  A Florida-Utah game would be interesting because of Urban Meyer.

 

There is a rumor going around that the Capital One Bowl could take Ole Miss over Georgia.  I think that rumor has merits, but I don’t expect the Rebels to end up in Orlando.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State

4. Outback-South Carolina 7-5 vs. Michigan State

5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-L S U 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech

7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. North Carolina

8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy should beat Arkansas State this weekend to wrap up the SBC title.  They will be the only seven-win team in the league, but it is likely that two six-win teams will receive at-large bids.  The winner of the UL-Lafayette-Middle Tennessee game will likely wind up in Birmingham, while either Arkansas State or Florida Atlantic will take the Independence Bowl bid.  I’m guessing ASU will be picked over FAU.  Of course, if ASU beats Troy, they will head to New Orleans.  Troy would then head to Birmingham, and ULL or MTSU will end up in Shreveport.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis

2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech

3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Pittsburgh

 

W A C

The Boise State-Ball State mini-dream game is still full of potential pitfalls.  The Humanitarian Bowl wants to host this game, but Ball State doesn’t want to play Boise State on the blue turf.  Boise State may think Detroit is too close to Muncie, Indiana.  The Independence Bowl has been mentioned as a possible site since it will have to find two at-large teams, but the Independence Bowl is supposed to take a Sunbelt team if they don’t have an SEC team.  Louisiana Tech is a great bet to be the other at-large team in Shreveport.  I believe the Motor City Bowl is the best option.  That will allow the Humanitarian Bowl to take Nevada and cause no further bowl interruptions.  If the big game ends up in Boise, then the ACC will have to be compensated.  They have more than enough eligible teams to meet their obligations. 

 

1. Motor City-Boise State 12-0 vs. Ball State

2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Maryland

3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State

4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. North Carolina State

5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.

 

 

November 24, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of November 25-29, 2008

NCAA Week 14: Oh What A Mess!!!

 

The conclusion of the 2008 FBS regular season begins this week and finishes next week.  There are multiple problems with the postseason as of now, and I don’t believe these problems will all be resolved by Saturday, December 6.

 

The national championship will produce controversy no matter which two teams are picked for the game.  Eight or more teams could conceivable have realistic arguments in favor of their being one of the final two.  The system is set up for failure, especially this season.  Except for 2005, this inept method of picking teams has “gotten it wrong” just about every season since its inception.

 

The non-BCS bowl situation couldn’t be more messed up today.  Six bowl will more than likely need at-large entries as the conferences which with they have agreements will not provide enough bowl eligible teams.  The poor Independence bowl will have to find two at-large teams unless a couple of miracle upsets occur this week.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 25-Nov-2008
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost

1

Florida 

140

10

1

2

Oklahoma

133

10

1

3

Southern Cal

132

9

1

4

Texas

128

10

1

5

Ohio St.

127

10

2

6

Penn St.

125

11

1

7

Texas Tech

122

10

1

8

Missouri

121

9

2

9

Alabama

120

11

0

10

T C U

120

10

2

11

Georgia 

119

9

2

12

Utah

118

12

0

13

Oregon State

118

8

3

14

Ole Miss

117

7

4

15

Iowa

117

8

4

16

Boise State

116

11

0

17

Oklahoma St.

115

9

2

18

Oregon

115

8

3

19

California

114

7

4

20

Ball State

113

11

0

21

Florida State

113

8

3

22

Rutgers

112

6

5

23

West Virginia

112

7

3

24

Cincinnati

111

9

2

25

South Carolina

111

7

4

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Florida State

5-3

8-3

113

70

43

Clemson

4-4

6-5

110

66

44

Boston College

4-3

8-3

108

65

43

N. Carolina State

3-4

5-6

106

70

36

Wake Forest

4-4

6-5

102

56

46

Maryland

4-3

7-4

100

61

39

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Virginia Tech

4-3

7-4

106

65

41

Georgia Tech

5-3

8-3

105

64

41

North Carolina

3-4

7-4

105

66

39

Miami

4-3

7-4

102

60

42

Virginia 

3-4

5-6

100

58

42

Duke

1-6

4-7

93

60

33

 

Big East Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Rutgers

4-2

6-5

112

67

45

West Virginia

4-1

7-3

112

67

45

Cincinnati

5-1

9-2

111

65

46

Pittsburgh

3-2

7-3

108

65

43

Connecticut

3-3

7-4

105

65

40

South Florida

2-4

7-4

105

68

37

Louisville

1-5

5-6

96

59

37

Syracuse

1-5

3-8

89

56

33

 

Big Ten
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

7-1

10-2

127

71

56

Penn State

7-1

11-1

125

76

49

Iowa

5-3

8-4

117

72

45

Wisconsin

3-5

7-5

107

71

36

Northwestern

5-3

9-3

105

64

41

Michigan State

6-2

9-3

104

64

40

Purdue

2-6

4-8

103

67

36

Illinois

3-5

5-7

102

65

37

Michigan

2-6

3-9

96

57

39

Minnesota

3-5

7-5

92

58

34

Indiana

1-7

3-9

79

54

25

 

Big 12
North Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

5-2

9-2

121

75

46

Nebraska

4-3

7-4

109

70

39

Kansas

3-4

6-5

106

66

40

Colorado

2-5

5-6

94

56

38

Kansas State

2-6

5-7

92

67

25

Iowa State

0-8

2-10

86

57

29

South Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

6-1

10-1

133

90

43

Texas

6-1

10-1

128

82

46

Texas Tech

6-1

10-1

122

85

37

Oklahoma State

5-2

9-2

115

69

46

Baylor

2-5

4-7

104

66

38

Texas A&M

2-5

4-7

90

56

34

 

Conference USA
East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Miss.

3-4

5-6

97

64

33

East Carolina

5-2

7-4

94

59

35

Central Florida

3-4

4-7

92

50

42

Memphis

3-4

5-6

89

59

30

Marshall

3-4

4-7

87

56

31

U A B

2-5

3-8

80

51

29

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

6-1

9-2

106

73

33

Houston

6-1

7-4

99

67

32

Rice

6-1

8-3

95

64

31

U T E P

4-3

5-6

91

61

30

S M U

0-7

1-10

78

57

21

Tulane

1-6

2-9

72

50

22

 

Independents
           
Team  

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Notre Dame  

6-5

98

58

40

Navy  

6-4

97

60

37

Army  

3-8

86

49

37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Buffalo

5-2

7-4

99

66

33

Bowling Green

3-4

5-6

98

66

32

Temple

3-4

4-7

94

57

37

Akron

3-4

5-6

91

62

29

Ohio U

2-5

3-8

89

49

40

Kent State

2-5

3-8

86

57

29

Miami (O)

1-6

2-9

83

55

28

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

7-0

11-0

113

74

39

Western Michigan

6-1

9-2

101

64

37

Northern Illinois

5-3

6-5

101

62

39

Central Michigan

6-1

8-3

100

68

32

Toledo

2-5

3-8

90

58

32

Eastern Michigan

1-6

2-9

84

55

29

 

Mountain West Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

T C U

7-1

10-2

120

68

52

Utah

8-0

12-0

118

70

48

Brigham Young

6-2

10-2

106

67

39

Air Force

5-3

8-4

95

58

37

Colorado State

4-4

6-6

93

60

33

New Mexico

2-6

4-8

93

56

37

UNLV

2-6

5-7

85

56

29

Wyoming

1-7

4-8

85

51

34

San Diego State

1-7

2-10

76

49

27

 

Pac-10 Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

7-1

9-1

132

73

59

Oregon State

7-1

8-3

118

75

43

Oregon

6-2

8-3

115

73

42

California

5-3

7-4

114

72

42

Arizona

4-4

6-5

111

74

37

Stanford

4-5

5-7

106

64

42

Arizona State

3-4

4-6

105

64

41

U C L A

3-4

4-6

100

57

43

Washington

0-8

0-11

83

55

28

Washington State

1-8

2-10

73

49

24

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

7-1

10-1

140

87

53

Georgia 

6-2

9-2

119

73

46

South Carolina

4-4

7-4

111

65

46

Tennessee

2-5

4-7

105

61

44

Kentucky

2-5

6-5

104

63

41

Vanderbilt

4-4

6-5

102

57

45

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Alabama

7-0

11-0

120

68

52

Ole Miss

4-3

7-4

117

71

46

L S U

3-4

7-4

107

68

39

Auburn

2-5

5-6

106

58

48

Mississippi State

2-5

4-7

102

57

45

Arkansas

1-6

4-6

101

67

34

 

Sunbelt Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

5-1

7-4

104

68

36

Arkansas State

3-2

5-5

93

61

32

Middle Tennessee

3-3

5-6

92

58

34

Florida Atlantic

3-3

5-6

92

61

31

La.-Monroe

3-4

4-8

87

56

31

La.-Lafayette

4-2

5-6

86

64

22

Fla. International

3-3

4-6

84

55

29

* Western Ky.

0-0

2-9

82

51

31

North Texas

0-6

1-10

67

53

14

           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009

Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Boise State

7-0

11-0

116

72

44

Nevada

4-3

6-5

102

73

29

Louisiana Tech

5-2

7-4

94

56

38

Hawaii

5-3

6-5

92

55

37

Fresno State

4-3

7-4

92

63

29

Utah State

2-5

2-9

88

55

33

San Jose State

4-4

6-6

85

53

32

New Mexico State

1-6

3-8

79

51

28

Idaho

1-7

2-10

73

57

16

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

   

 

 

Tuesday, November 25  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

BALL STATE Western Michigan

15

38-23

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Navy

7

27-20

   

 

 

Thursday, November 27  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

TEXAS Texas A&M

41

48-7

   

 

 

Friday, November 28  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

West Virginia PITTSBURGH

1

21-20

OLE MISS Mississippi State

18

27-9

Ohio U MIAMI (O)

3

20-17

EAST CAROLINA U t e p

6

30-24

TEMPLE Akron

6

28-22

Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN

13

37-24

BUFFALO Kent State

16

37-21

L s u ARKANSAS

3

31-28

NEBRASKA Colorado

18

35-17

Bowling Green TOLEDO

5

31-26

BOISE STATE Fresno State

27

44-17

ARIZONA STATE U c l a

8

21-13

   

 

 

Saturday, November 29      
Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

ALABAMA Auburn

17

20-3

TEXAS TECH Baylor

21

49-28

Florida FLORIDA STATE

24

42-18

Oklahoma OKLAHOMA STATE

15

42-27

GEORGIA Georgia Tech

17

34-17

North Carolina DUKE

9

31-22

CINCINNATI Syracuse

25

35-10

WAKE FOREST Vanderbilt

3

13-10

CLEMSON South Carolina

2

21-19

BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland

11

28-17

N.C. STATE Miami-Fl

7

28-21

VIRGINIA TECH Virginia

9

23-14

TENNESSEE Kentucky

4

20-16

Missouri        (Kansas City) Kansas

15

35-20

MEMPHIS Tulane

20

38-18

Arkansas State NORTH TEXAS

23

44-21

Nevada LA. TECH

5

35-30

Houston RICE

1

35-34

UTAH STATE New Mexico St.

12

28-16

Southern Miss. S M U

16

41-25

Tulsa MARSHALL

16

40-24

CENTRAL FLORIDA U a b

15

21-6

FLA. ATLANTIC Fla. International

11

35-24

OREGON STATE Oregon

6

34-28

SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame

35

35-0

HAWAII Washington State

23

33-10

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

Tuesday, November 25  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

BALL STATE Western Michigan

31-20

Navy NORTHERN ILLINOIS

31-31 to OT

   

 

Thursday, November 27  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

TEXAS Texas A&M

49-14

   

 

Friday, November 28  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

PITTSBURGH West Virginia

27-24

OLE MISS Mississippi State

28-10

Ohio U MIAMI (O)

28-26

EAST CAROLINA U t e p

38-30

TEMPLE Akron

31-29

Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN

33-20

BUFFALO Kent State

30-14

L s u ARKANSAS

35-30

NEBRASKA Colorado

44-27

Bowling Green TOLEDO

30-27

BOISE STATE Fresno State

41-19

ARIZONA STATE U c l a

31-23

   

 

Saturday, November 29    
Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

ALABAMA Auburn

30-7

TEXAS TECH Baylor

52-26

Florida FLORIDA STATE

35-21

Oklahoma OKLAHOMA STATE

42-35

GEORGIA Georgia Tech

37-28

North Carolina DUKE

30-24

CINCINNATI Syracuse

32-10

WAKE FOREST Vanderbilt

17-12

CLEMSON South Carolina

28-26

BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland

31-21

Miami-Fl N.C. STATE

31-28

VIRGINIA TECH Virginia

21-12

TENNESSEE Kentucky

17-16

Missouri        (Kansas City) Kansas

42-28

MEMPHIS Tulane

37-24

Arkansas State NORTH TEXAS

38-21

Nevada LA. TECH

38-35

RICE Houston

35-34

UTAH STATE New Mexico St.

27-22

Southern Miss. S M U

34-21

Tulsa MARSHALL

40-28

CENTRAL FLORIDA U a b

24-14

FLA. ATLANTIC Fla. International

38-33

OREGON STATE Oregon

31-24

SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame

34-7

HAWAII Washington State

42-23

 

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

Another week of games have been played, and nothing was really determined bowl-wise.  Instead of knowing where some of the teams are headed, the picture is actually more clouded than it was last week.  A couple of teams were eliminated from the bowl picture, but we’re talking about UNLV and Illinois.  As we enter the Thanksgiving holiday, we only know for sure that Navy is in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl.  Penn State is all but assured of a spot in the Rose Bowl, but it isn’t official yet.

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

Another week, another couple of frontrunners are ripe for upset losses.  Miami and Maryland controlled their own destinies last week, but both were blown out.  Now Virginia Tech and Boston College have the easiest roads to the title game.  If the Eagles beat Maryland in Chestnut Hill this week, they are headed to Atlanta.  If Virginia Tech beats Virginia, the Hokies are joining the Eagles.

 

The overall mediocrity of this league actually could help the ACC get an extra team in the bowl discussion.  If North Carolina State beats Miami or Virginia beats Virginia Tech, the league will have 10 bowl eligible teams.  Should both the Wolfpack and Cavs win, then 11 of the 12 teams will be bowl eligible.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. South Carolina

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska

4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Northwestern

5. Music City-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt

6. Meineke Car Care-Miami (Fla) 7-5 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Clemson 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Maryland 7-5 vs. Notre Dame

9. Humanitarian-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. Boise State

10. Texas (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.

 

Big East

Cincinnati is a win away from securing a BCS Bowl bid, and it looks like they would be headed to Miami.  Coach Brian Kelly will be very popular Sunday morning if the Bearcats win, and he could be the head coach at a larger school before December 15.

 

Once Cincinnati wraps up the Orange Bowl berth, the dominoes should begin to fall.  I believe the bowls will possibly sacrifice won-loss record for distance.  With the economy in shambles, fans may be reluctant to travel great distances and spend a lot of money.  Thus, I am picking South Florida to stay at home for their bowl.  I am going with West Virginia to stay close to home.  I am sending Connecticut north of the border.

 

With Notre Dame losing to Syracuse, the Irish are no longer in the Gator Bowl picture, and I don’t think the Sun Bowl will be able to select them as the Big East representative because they will finish 6-6 and six Big East teams will win seven or more games. 

 

I have Louisville out of the picture.  The Cardinals have been a major disappointment for the second consecutive year.  Coach Steve Kragthorpe’s seat is getting hot.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College

2. Sun-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Arizona

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo

6. Papa John’s-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Middle Tennessee State

 

Big Ten

Illinois was eliminated from bowl contention last week, but I now have Ohio State slated to miss out on an at-large BCS bowl bid.  So, this league will have seven teams for seven bowls.

 

Even thought Minnesota fell mightily in November, I have the Gophers ahead of Wisconsin because it appears that the Badger fans do not plan on supporting their team en masse this year.  In a poll in the Milwaukee paper, a plurality of fans voted their opinion that UW should not even go to a bowl this year.

 

1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Oregon State

2. Capital One-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Georgia

3. Outback-Michigan State 9-3 vs. L S U

4. Champs Sports-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Alamo-Iowa 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State

6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas

7. Motor City-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Ball State

 

Big 12

Missouri is definitely in the Big 12 Championship Game next week.  The other side of the league is still a three-team race.  If Oklahoma wins at Oklahoma State, then the Sooners should jump ahead of Texas in the BCS standings, even if the Longhorns beat Texas A&M 56-0.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech will back in to the title game if they beat Baylor.  I think Texas can only get into the Big 12 title game if Texas Tech loses to Baylor.  However, the Longhorns still have a chance to make it to the National Championship Game if Missouri beats Oklahoma in the conference title game and Southern Cal doesn’t jump ahead of them.

 

Colorado still has an outside chance of becoming bowl-eligible.  They have to win at Nebraska.  I don’t give the Buffs much chance of doing that, and I believe Coach Dan Hawkins is riding down a slippery slope in the Rockies.

 

The Cornhuskers may cut in line in the bowl pecking order.  The Gator Bowl will probably take them ahead of a 10-3 Missouri or 9-3 Oklahoma State team.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss

4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Missouri 10-3 vs. California

6. Alamo-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Iowa

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota

8. Independence-No Qualifying Team

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

There is still unfinished business in this conference.  East Carolina has won the East Division, but the West is still a three-team race.  Tulsa has a tough road game at Marshall, while Houston plays across town at Rice.  If Rice and Tulsa finished ties, Tulsa wins.  If Tulsa loses to Marshall, the winner of the Rice-Houston game wins.  All three will go to bowls.

 

UTEP and Memphis must win their final games to become bowl-eligible.  Memphis has an easy game against lowly Tulane, but UTEP must play at East Carolina.  Should the Tigers lose, Coach Tommy West could be in trouble.

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Rice 8-4 vs. Central Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 8-4 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. N.C. State

6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Navy is the only team that definitely knows what bowl it will be playing in this year.  The Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the first Eagle Bank Bowl. 

 

Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl after USC slaughters them to drop them to 6-6.  They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team.  Whether they accept the bid is another story, but I’m selecting them here.

 

1. Emerald (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Maryland

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Clemson

 

M A C

Ball State has a big home game with Western Michigan Tuesday night.  Then, they would have to beat Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game and hope Boise State, Alabama, and Southern Cal all lose just to have a minute chance at getting an at-large bid to a BCS bowl.  It looks like the Motor City Bowl is the best they can hope for.  I would love to see some arrangement made to pit a 13-0 Ball State team against a 12-0 Boise State team.  A lot of deals would have to be made.

 

Central and Western Michigan should easily receive bowl bids.  Buffalo is a virtually guaranteed a bowl as well thanks to them picking up their seventh win last week.

 

Northern Illinois will become the fifth bowl team if they defeat Navy.  Even if they lose, they could still have a shot at 6-6, since their fans travel well.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Wisconsin

2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice

4. Hawaii (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Hawaii

 

Mountain West

Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee.  It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.

 

BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time.  TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Oregon

3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Boise State

4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State

5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon State won at Arizona, and now the Beavers need to take care of business at home against Oregon.  If they win, they head to the Rose Bowl for the first time in more than four decades!  They would get a chance to redeem themselves against Penn State.

 

Southern Cal could still climb up to second in the BCS if Oklahoma and Texas both lose again this season.

 

Arizona State could still become bowl eligible by beating both UCLA and Arizona.  It could happen, but for now I am picking Arizona to end that dream.

 

 

1. Rose-Oregon State 9-3 vs. Penn State

2. Fiesta (at-large) Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Texas

3. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh

5. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. B Y U

6. Emerald-No qualifying team

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

Florida continues to move farther and farther ahead of the pack in college football.  I have the Gators at least a touchdown ahead of any other team.

 

Alabama is still number one in the official polls.  What if the Crimson Tide destroys Auburn and loses to Florida in overtime on a missed two-point conversion?  Might we see the same two teams play again for the national title?  Could it happen?  I think the Gators will take ‘Bama by more than two touchdowns to make it a moot point.

 

Arkansas was eliminated from the bowl talk last week, and I expect Auburn to go away this week.  If Auburn fires Tommy Tuberville, the Tigers deserve to rot into the basement in the SEC West for years.  Tuberville is a class act, and he knows how to coach.  I don’t think there is a savior out there who can do any better.

 

Kentucky and Vanderbilt will probably both finish 6-6, and that presents a mismatch problem if Tulsa wins the C-USA title.  The Golden Hurricane would be a prohibitive favorite over both teams.  Might the Liberty Bowl decide to allow the Independence of Papa John’s Bowl to take one of these 6-6 and then go after an undefeated Ball State team as an at-large opponent?  It’s something to consider, but I believe the Wildcats will travel to Memphis.  If Rice wins the C-USA title, then Kentucky will definitely be the opponent, since Vandy has already played the Owls.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State

4. Outback-L S U 8-4 vs. Michigan State

5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-South Carolina 7-5 vs. North Carolina

7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Georgia Tech

8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy has all but wrapped up the New Orleans Bowl berth.  It looks highly likely that no other SBC team will finish 7-5, but as many as three will finish 6-6.  Because I see at least four and possibly five 6-6 teams being required to fill out the at-large spots, two at-large bids could go to this league. 

 

The Sunbelt has side bets with three other bowls, and two of them will be needing to find alternative invitees.  So, I am going with the two teams I believe will travel the best here.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis

2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech

3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Rutgers

W A C

Boise State should take care of business against Fresno State this week and finish the regular season at 12-0.  They won’t get a sniff at an at-large BCS bowl bid.  Their only hope is if Oregon State loses to Oregon, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, Texas loses to Texas A&M, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor (or if Missouri wins the Big 12 title).

 

The WAC has a provisional agreement with the Poinsettia Bowl should the Pac-10 not have a team available.  They won’t this year, and that could allow Boise State to go there.  Economics may trump this theory as the Humanitarian Bowl will want the Broncos to stay home.  For now, I am selecting Boise to head south and west to play a better opponent than they would face on the blue field.

 

San Jose State looks like the odd man out this year, unless the Poinsettia Bowl would prefer them to Boise State.  Then, Nevada might be the odd man out.  If the Wolf Pack take care of business this week at Louisiana Tech, then they will take a bid away from a 6-6 team.

 

1. Poinsettia (at-large) Boise State 12-0 vs. T C U

2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Wake Forest

3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State

4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Western Michigan

5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.

 

December 31, 2007

NCAA Football Computer Simulated Playoffs–Championship Game

 

The NCAA Computer Simulated National Championship Playoff Final

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Southern California Trojans

Simulated date: January 12, 2008

How They Got Here

Oklahoma                                                       

Defeated Florida 50-48 in 3ot in the Fiesta Bowl

Defeated Ohio State 27-20 in the Sugar Bowl

Southern Cal

Defeated LSU 45-24 in the Cotton Bowl

Defeated Arizona State 35-17 in the Orange Bowl

FINAL SCORE: Southern Cal 38  Oklahoma 24

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Southern California

3

7

14

14

 

38

Oklahoma

7

10

7

0

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

USC: David Buehler 41 yd. FG 1st qtr. 9:33  USC 3 OU 0

OKL: Chris Brown 74 yd. run, Hartley Kick 1st qtr. 9:15 OU 7 USC 3

OKL: Malcolm Kelly 5 yd. pass from Bradford, Hartley Kick 2nd qtr. 10:09  OU 14 USC 3

USC: Fred Davis 42 yd. pass from Booty, Buehler Kick 2nd qtr. 4:01  OU 14 USC 10

OKL: Garrett Hartley 44 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 0:00  OU 17 USC 10

OKL: Chris Brown 12 yd. run, Harltey Kick 3rd qtr. 11:03 OU 24 USC 10

USC: Ronald Johnson 99 yd Kick Return, Buehler Kick 3rd qtr. 10:50  OU 24 USC 17

USC: Clay Matthews 29 yd. block punt return, Buehler Kick 3rd qtr. 7:49  USC 24 OU 24

USC: Chauncey Washington 4 yd. run, Buehler Kick 4th qtr. 8:59  USC 31 OU 24

USC: Terrell Thomas 67 yd. interception return, Buehler Kick 4th qtr. 4:12 USC 38 OU 24

Team Statistics

Stat

USC

OKL

FD

18

23

Rushing

39-157

33-96

Passing

258

318

Passes

16-27-0

27-46-2

Sacks-Yds

0-0

4-21

Fum-Lst

0-0

1-0

Punting

6-41.7

6-33.3

Punt Ret.

4-11.3

3-5.0

Kick Ret.

5-35.6

7-19.4

Penalties

6-50

7-55

T O P

26:12

33:48

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

Chauncey Washington

19

92

17

1

 

Stafon Johnson

13

46

11

0

 

Joe McKnight

5

19

6

0

 

John David Booty

2

0

2

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Brown

20

109

74

2

 

Allen Patrick

7

10

5

0

 

Sam Bradford

5

-11

10

0

 

Manuel Johnson

1

-12

-12

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

USC

 

 

 

 

 

John David Booty

15

26

0

227

1

Desmond Reed

1

1

0

31

0

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Sam Bradford

27

46

2

318

1

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

Fred Davis

5

117

42

1

 

Patrick Turner

7

90

19

0

 

Desmond Reed

1

24

24

0

 

Vidal Hazleton

2

21

13

0

 

Stanley Havili

1

6

6

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Manuel Johnson

11

137

25

0

 

Malcolm Kelly

6

80

21

1

 

Chris Brown

4

51

19

0

 

Juaquin Iglesias

4

38

12

0

 

Allen Patrick

2

12

9

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

Lawrence Jackson

13 tackles, 2 TFL, 3 sacks

 

Terrell Thomas

4 tackles, 1 Int. for TD

 

Clay Matthews

bk punt and return for TD

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Curtis Lofton

7 tackles, 1 TFL

 

D.J. Wolfe

5 tackles, 1 PBU

 

Lendy Holmes

5 tackles 

 

Player of the Game: Lawrence Jackson

PiRate Look at the Bowls–January 1 through January 6

 

New Year’s Bowl Game Match-ups (1/1-1/6)

Disclaimer: I am giving advice on pointspreads totally as an act of fun.  I do not personally wager money on these games, and I do not advocate you doing so either.  It’s just a game like Monopoly to me.

Here it is New Year’s Eve as this is written, and I still have yet to spend one minute watching or listening to any of the bowls so far.  Who would have thought that the top game in the holiday season would be a Saturday night contest between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants?  The next most important games in this time were the New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears, the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys, the Denver Broncos and the Minnesota Vikings, and the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans.  These games actually had something on the line, as these teams were fighting to make history or the playoffs.

To the contrary, these bowls have been meaningless to me and most of the country, since they don’t contribute to the national title.  Looking at traffic to this site, it appears more people are interested in the computer simulated playoffs than the actual bowl breakdowns, so I have reduced the coverage of these games.

As I previously stated, if the bowls were used for NCAA playoffs, the Cotton Bowl might have an important quarterfinal round game featuring the eventual National Champion instead of a meaningless game that won’t draw many viewers nor return much bang for their sponsor’s buck.  What if LSU and Southern Cal played in the Cotton Bowl instead of Arkansas and Missouri?  I dare say FOX Sports would get a much higher rating for the game, and AT&T, as the sponsor, would receive a bigger return on their investment.

Here is a brief breakdown of the third wave of bowls.  These used to be the most exciting football games of the year when several of them played a part in the national title decision.  Under the old system, Ohio State would have been playing Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl; LSU would have played Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl (using the theory that LSU played an undefeated Wyoming team in January 1968); Kansas and Virginia Tech would still have played in the Orange Bowl, but with the game having national title repercussions; Oklahoma would have played Arizona State in the Fiesta Bowl; and the Cotton Bowl would have featured Texas against Missouri.  At least three bowls would have played a part in the championship picture, and if LSU, Ohio State, and Kansas would have lost, it would have thrown the door open for a host of teams to claim a part of a national title.  Now, we have the winner of one game and one game only.  It will be played six days after New Year’s Day, so the January 1st bowl games are now a waste of time; there’s no reason to watch unless your favorite team is playing.

The one prediction I can make with absolute certitude is that I won’t spend a minute watching or listening to these games. 

Point spreads and totals are those listed as of 9:00 AM ET Monday, December 31, 2007

Times given are Eastern Standard Tome Zone

Tuesday, January 1-11:00 AM ESPN

Outback Bowl-Tampa

Tennessee 9-4  vs.  Wisconsin 9-3

Vegas:  Tennessee by 1½

PiRate: Tennessee by 2

Mean: Tennessee 30  Wisconsin 28

Tennessee has some distractions heading into this game with offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe now the head coach at Duke.

Wisconsin has defensive liabilities that Tennessee can exploit, but the Badgers’ offense is strong enough to make this game a shootout.  Give the Vols an ever so slight edge here, but it’s almost a 50-50 proposition.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 27  Wisconsin 25

Tuesday, January 1-11:30 AM Fox

Cotton Bowl-Dallas

Arkansas 8-4 vs. Missouri 11-2

Vegas: Missouri by 3½

PiRate: Missouri by 2

Mean: Missouri 37  Arkansas 30

Oh how this bowl has fallen from the penthouse to near the outhouse.  This bowl frequently hosted the eventual national champion in past years; now, an invitation to this bowl gets your coach on the hot seat.  Arkansas coach Houston Nutt fled for Ole Miss, after his Hogs were delegated to this now lower-tier bowl.

Chase Daniel versus Darren McFadden gives this game some appeal, but the overwhelming populace will be watching the Tournament of Roses Parade instead of this game.

For those that do tune this one in on their sets, they should see an exciting, high-scoring game.  Give Daniel the slight edge, unless the turf is a sloppy mess.

Predicted Score: Missouri 35  Arkansas 33

Tuesday, January 1-1:00 PM  CBS

Gator Bowl-Jacksonville

Texas Tech 8-4  vs. Virginia 9-3

Vegas: Texas Tech by 6

PiRate: Tossup

Mean: Texas Tech 29  Virginia 27

Here’s another bowl game that has disappeared from the national limelight.  This game used to feature top 10 teams.  Now, it gets middle of the pack teams from their conferences.  Ho hum!  Texas Tech will pass the ball 50-60 times, many of which are nothing more than running plays that begin with a forward toss behind the line of scrimmage.  It’s not much different from the pitchout plays of the pass.

Virginia’s defense has the potential to slow down the Red Raiders, but they won’t be able to stop it.  The Cavs should be able to score just as easily against Tech’s defense, so expect this one to be decided on a big play in the second half, or even go to overtime.

Predicted Score: 34-34 Tie heading to overtime

Tuesday, January 1-1:00 PM  ABC

Capital One Bowl-Orlando

Florida 9-3  vs.  Michigan 8-4

Vegas:  Florida by 10½  

PiRate: Florida by 21

Mean:  Florida 33  Michigan 23

The Heisman Trophy winner gets to play his first game since he received the trophy.  Michigan gets to pay its first game since the 1990’s without Lloyd Carr.  This one should be a dud.  Even if it’s close, there’s no reason to watch unless you are a Gator or Wolverine at heart.  The bigger news in this one is the impending lawsuit between new coach Rich Rodriguez, and his old school.  That will be an interesting event in the coming year.

Predicted Score: Florida 38  Michigan 17

Tuesday, January 1-5:00 PM

Rose Bowl-Pasadena, CA

Southern California 10-2  vs.  Illinois 9-3

Vegas: USC by 13½  

PiRate: USC by 18

Mean: USC 29  Illinois 21

The Grandaddy of them all won’t be much of a battle.  Southern Cal is probably the best team in the nation, even though they won’t have a chance to play for that title.  Yes, they lost twice this year.  So did LSU.  Yes, they fell to Stanford.  LSU lost to Kentucky and Arkansas.  Oh, by the way, Ohio State lost to Illinois, and that’s who the Trojans get to wallop in Pasadena.  In my opinion, a Trojan blowout victory coupled with a small win by either team in the National Championship Game, might give the AP voters reason to think before they cast their final ballots.

Predicted Score: USC 35  Illinois 17

Tuesday, January 1-8:30 PM

Sugar Bowl-New Orleans

Georgia 10-2  vs.  Hawaii 12-0

Vegas: Georgia by 8

PiRate: Georgia by 9

Mean: Georgia 34  Hawaii 28

This will be a game where you will see a future star quarterback in the NFL.  Yes, I’m talking about Matthew Stafford of Georgia.  Stafford is quite underrated, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outshine Colt Brennan in this game.  Georgia will also be able to control the line of scrimmage when they run the ball, and that will spell doom for the undefeated Warriors.  Wyoming once came to this bowl at 10-0 to face 7-3 LSU.  They had star back Jim Kiick among others.  They gave the Tigers all they could handle-for one half.  LSU dominated in the final 30 minutes and won.  I expect much of the same thing here.

Predicted Score: Georgia 30  Hawaii 21

Wednesday, January 2-8:30 PM  Fox

Fiesta Bowl-Tempe, AZ

Oklahoma 11-2  vs.  West Virginia 10-2

Vegas: Oklahoma by 7½  

PiRate: Oklahoma by 6

Mean: Oklahoma 31  West Virginia 29

This might have been the National Championship Game if Oklahoma had not been upset by Texas Tech and West Virginia had not lost to Pittsburgh in their regular season finale.  Now, this game is overshadowed by the lawsuit filed by the West Virginia against former coach Rich Rodriguez.  Maybe Court TV’s ratings of this trial would be better viewing material than this game.  I don’t like these bowl games being played after New Year’s Day (unless New Year’s Day is a Sunday).  On January 2, the holidays are over, and it’s time to concentrate on the bigger game-the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primaries.

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 28  West Virginia 22

Thursday, January 3-8:30 PM  Fox

Orange Bowl-Miami

Virginia Tech 11-2  vs.  Kansas 11-1

Vegas: Virginia Tech by 3

PiRate: Virginia Tech by 2

Mean: Virginia Tech 27  Kansas 26  

Forget this game!  This is Iowa Caucus night, and that’s the big game that matters on this day.  My picks for the big game are John Edwards and Mitt Romney.  I expect Romney to come from behind with a late touchdown in the fourth quarter due to Mike Huckabee’s second half fumbles.  I expect Edwards to pick up some blocking (from those candidates who fail to receive 15% support) to make and end run and edge Obama and Clinton.

As for the game, I may not know who won until the 2008 football preview magazines hit the stands in the spring.

Predicted Score: Virginia Tech 24  Kansas 22

Saturday, January 5-12:00 PM  ESPN2

International Bowl-Toronto

Ball State 7-5  vs.  Rutgers 7-5

Vegas: Rutgers by 10

PiRate: Rutgers by 12

Mean: Rutgers 32  Ball State 24  

Is this really a bowl?  It’s from Canada.  Maybe this is a hockey match.  It shouldn’t be played if it’s really a football game.  Who gives a flip by January 5? They should have played back around December 20 considering the teams involved.  Saturday is the first round of NFL Playoffs.  You here that, you NCAA dolts?  The playoffs!  That means all the games mean something.  That means multi-millions will be putting everything else aside to tune in to see the first pieces of the Super Bowl puzzle.  Your bowl game wouldn’t generate power if it were moved to Niagara Falls.

Predicted Score: Rutgers 33  Ball State 21

Sunday, January 6-8:00 PM  ESPN

GMAC Bowl-Mobile, AL

Tulsa 9-4  vs.  Bowling Green 8-4

Vegas: Tulsa by 4½

PiRate: Tulsa by 4

Mean: Tulsa 36  Bowling Green 33  

I could have copy and pasted the above description from that Canadian bowl for this one.  This game would have been just as meaningless if it had been played before all the others.  You get more NFL playoffs on Sunday, and the folks in Mobile will spurn this game for the actual one that matters-the Senior Bowl.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 35  Bowling Green 31

This Week’s “Picks”

It seems to be working every week since I instituted this strategy in mid-November, so I will continue to employ the same formula for picking games during the bowls.  So far, these picks are 6-3 against the spread through bowl games of December 30.

Where the PiRates and Mean both fall on the same side of the spread and the difference is more than 2.5 points, that game will be picked against the spread.  When they both agree on the winner, and the line is 10 points or less, that game will be picked on the money line.  There will be no totals or teasers picked. 

Straight Plays Against the Spread

# 1:  Virginia +6 vs. Texas Tech

Money Line Picks

# 2:  Tennessee -120 vs. Wisconsin

# 3:  Missouri -160 vs. Arkansas

# 4:  Georgia -280 vs. Hawaii

# 5:  Oklahoma -270 vs. West Virginia

# 6:  Virginia Tech -150 vs. Kansas

# 7:  Rutgers -380 vs. Ball State

# 8:  Tulsa -195 vs. Bowling Green

UP NEXT: THE ONLY POST-SEASON COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME THAT MATTERS-AN IN-DEPTH PREVIEW OF LSU-OHIO STATE. 

Look for the preview to appear here Friday, January 4.

December 26, 2007

NCAA Football Playoffs Computer Simulation–Semifinal Round

 

College Football Computer Simulation

 

NCAA Playoffs-Semifinal Round (simulated Date: 1/1/08)

 

SUGAR BOWL

 

Oklahoma 27  Ohio State 20

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Oklahoma

0

10

14

3

 

27

Ohio State

0

10

0

10

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

OSU: Chris Wells 6 yd. run, Pretorius Kick 2nd qtr. 11:43  OSU 7  OK 0

OK: Garrett Hartley 37 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 7:10  OSU 7  OK 3

OSU: Ryan Pretorius 42 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 3:07  OSU 10  OK 3

OK: Manuel Johnson 13 yd. pass from Bradford, Hartley Kick 2nd qtr. 0:11  OSU 10  OK 10

OK: Juaquin Iglesias 96 yd. kick return, Hartley Kick 3rd qtr. 14:47  OK 17  OSU 10

OK: Jacob Gutierrez 6 yd. run, Hartley Kick 3rd qtr. 8:39  OK 24  OSU 10

OK: Garrett Hartley 40 yd. FG 4th qtr. 10:00  OK 27  OSU 10

OSU: Ryan Pretorius 51 yd. FG 4th qtr. 7:46  OK 27  OSU 13

OSU: Todd Boeckman 17 yd. run, Hartley Kick 4th qtr. 5:18  OK 27  OSU 20

 

Team Statistics

Stat

OKL

OSU

FD

21

17

Rushing

41-177

39-122

Passing

216

259

Passes

17-30-0

19-37-2

Sacks-Yds

0-0

1-6

Fum-Lst

0-0

0-0

Punting

4-41.5

6-39.0

Punt Ret.

3-8.6

3-7.7

Kick Ret.

3-45.7

4-19.3

Penalties

4-30

5-45

T O P

30:17

29:43

 

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Brown

13

82

34

0

 

Allen Patrick

17

79

15

0

 

Jacob Gutierrz

8

19

6

1

 

Sam Bradford

3

-3

-1

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ohio State

 

 

 

 

 

Todd Boeckman

15

59

17

1

 

Chris Wells

18

40

6

1

 

Maurice Wells

4

12

5

0

 

Ray Small

1

11

11

0

 

Brandon Saine

1

0

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Sam Bradford

16

28

0

209

1

Joey Halzle

1

2

0

7

0

 

 

 

 

 

Ohio State

 

 

 

 

 

Todd Boeckman

19

36

2

259

0

Chris Wells

0

1

0

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Manuel Johnson

7

84

13

1

 

Juaquin Iglesias

4

73

22

0

 

Malcolm Kelly

3

37

16

0

 

Chris Brown

2

15

9

0

 

Sam Bradford

1

7

7

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ohio State

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Robiskie

8

132

38

0

 

Brian Hartline

8

87

17

0

 

Maurice Wells

3

40

15

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Reggie Smith

4 tackles. 1 TFL, 1 Int.

 

Curtis Lofton

4 tackles, 1 QBH

 

Nic Harris

4 tackles, 1 Int.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ohio State

 

 

 

 

 

James Laurinitis

12 tackles

 

Malcolm Jenkins

5 tackles, 1 PBU

 

Anderson Russell

4 tackles

 

 

 

ORANGE BOWL

 

Southern California 35  Arizona State 17

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Arizona State

7

7

3

0

 

17

Southern Cal

0

7

14

14

 

35

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

ASU: Chris McGaha 43 yd. pass from Carpenter, Weber Kick 1st qtr. 12:45  ASU 7  USC 0

ASU: Michael Jones 19 yd. pass from Carpenter, Weber Kick 2nd qtr. 9:17  ASU 14  USC 0

USC: Chauncey Washington 8 yd. run, Buehler Kick 2nd qtr. 3:09  ASU 14  USC 7

ASU: Thomas Weber 39 yd. FG 3rd qtr. 12:56  ASU 17  USC 7

USC: Chauncey Washington 14 yd. run, Buehler Kick 3rd qtr. 6:11  ASU 17  USC 14

USC: Patrick Turner 62 yd. run, Buehler Kick 3rd qtr. 2:14  USC 21  ASU 17

USC: Chauncey Washington 5 yd. run, Buehler Kick 4th qtr. 13:26  USC 28  ASU 17

USC: Desmond Reed 59 yd. punt return, Buehler Kick 4th qtr. 9:04  USC 35  ASU 17

 

Team Statistics

Stat

ASU

USC

FD

14

20

Rushing

24-55

52-318

Passing

259

151

Passes

20-43-1

14-22-0

Sacks-Yds

3-22

0-0

Fum-Lst

1-0

2-0

Punting

6-41.5

3-42.0

Punt Ret.

2-8.5

4-21.3

Kick Ret.

3-19.0

2-21.5

Penalties

6-40

7-60

T O P

24:43

35:17

 

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

ASU

 

 

 

 

 

Keegan Herring

13

51

9

0

 

Dimitri Nance

7

22

8

0

 

Kyle Williams

1

4

4

0

 

Rudy Carpenter

3

-22

-5

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

Chauncey Washington

32

174

19

3

 

Joe McKnight

16

67

13

0

 

Patrick Turner

1

62

62

1

 

Stanley Havili

2

9

5

0

 

John David Booty

1

6

6

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

ASU

 

 

 

 

 

Rudy Carpenter

20

43

1

259

2

 

 

 

 

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

John David Booty

14

22

0

151

0

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

ASU

 

 

 

 

 

Chris McGaha

6

98

43

1

 

Michael Jones

5

61

19

1

 

Tyrice Thompson

4

59

20

0

 

Rudy Burgess

2

23

14

0

 

Kyle Williams

2

15

10

0

 

Keegan Herring

1

3

3

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

Fred Davis

7

73

14

0

 

Patrick Turner

5

60

15

0

 

Stanley Havili

1

10

10

0

 

Vidal Hazelton

1

8

8

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

ASU

 

 

 

 

 

Dexter Davis

8 tackles, 1 TFL

 

Robert James

7 tackles

 

Troy Nolan

5 tackles

 

 

 

 

 

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

Sedrick Ellis

9 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks

 

Terrell Thomas

4 tackles, 1 Int.

 

Desmond Reed

4 PR, 85 yds & 1 TD

 

 

 

Next: NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

 

Oklahoma vs. Southern California

 

Results will be posted New Year’s Eve

December 13, 2007

2007 NCAA Football Playoffs–Quarterfinals Simulation

 

College Football Computer Simulation

 

NCAA Playoffs-Quarterfinal Round (simulated Date: 12/22/07)

 

FIESTA BOWL

 

Oklahoma 50 Florida 48 3 OT

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

OT

Total

Florida

7

10

0

15

16

48

Oklahoma

3

3

13

13

18

50

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

OKL: Garrett Hartley 37 yd. FG 1st qtr. 9:37 OU 3  FLA 0

FLA: Cornelius Ingram 6 yd. pass from Tebow, Ijjas Kick 1st qtr. 3:12  FLA 7  OU 3

FLA: Tim Tebow 4 yd. run, Ijjas Kick 2nd qtr. 11:39  FLA 14  OU 3

OKL: Garrett Hartley 41 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 8:08 FLA 14  OU 6

FLA: Joey Ijjas 40 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 2:15  FLA 17  OU 6

OKL: Jermaine Gresham 27 yd. pass from Bradford, 2-pt try failed 3rd qtr. 13:02 FLA 17  OU 12

OKL: Chris Brown 3 yd. run, Hartley Kick 3rd qtr. 3:11  OU 19  FLA 17

OKL: Malcolm Kelly 23 yd. pass from Bradford, 2-pt. try failed 4th qtr. 10:29  OU 25  FLA 17

OKL: Allen Patrick 49 yd. run, Hartley Kick 4th qtr. 6:52  OU 32  FLA 17

FLA: Percy Harvin 32 yd. pass from Tebow, Ijjas Kick 4th qtr. 4:12  OU 32  FLA 24

FLA: Percy Harvin 29 yd. run, Tebow run for 2 4th qtr. 0:47  OU 32  FLA 32

FLA: Tim Tebow 7 yd. run, Ijjas Kick OT1  FLA 39  OU 32

OKL: Chris Brown 1 yd. run, Hartley Kick OT1 FLA 39  OU 39

OKL: Garrett Hartley 42 yd. FG OT2  OU 42  FLA 39

FLA: Joey Ijjas 36 yd. FG OT2  OU 42  FLA 42

FLA: Louis Murphy 14 yd. pass from Tebow, 2-pt try failed OT3  FLA 48  OU 42

OKL: Sam Bradford 1 yd. run, Brown run for 2 OT3  OU 50  FLA 48

 

Team Statistics

Stat

FLA

OKL

FD

23

25

Rushing

42-197

48-233

Passing

289

279

Passes

24-42-0

25-39-0

Sacks-Yds

0-0

1-6

Fum-Lst

0-0

1-0

Punting

5-39.2

4-40.0

Punt Ret.

3-9.7

4-8.5

Kick Ret.

6-19.5

5-20.6

Penalties

6-35

7-45

T O P

28:44

31:16

 

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

Florida

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Tebow

18

93

20

2

 

Percy Harvin

16

78

29

1

 

Kestahn Moore

8

26

6

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Allen Patrick

27

161

49

1

 

Chris Brown

16

72

15

2

 

Jacob Gutierrez

3

5

3

0

 

Sam Bradford

2

-5

1

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

Florida

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Tebow

24

42

0

289

3

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Sam Bradford

25

39

0

279

2

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

Florida

 

 

 

 

 

Percy Harvin

10

135

32

1

 

Cornelius Ingram

7

80

18

1

 

Andre Caldwell

4

47

15

0

 

Louis Murphy

2

23

14

1

 

Kestahn Moore

1

4

4

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Malcolm Kelly

5

84

23

1

 

Juaquin Iglesias

6

54

12

0

 

Manuel Johnson

6

59

14

0

 

Jermaine Gresham

4

52

27

1

 

Joe Jon Finley

2

18

11

0

 

Allen Patrick

1

7

7

0

 

Chris Brown

1

5

5

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

Florida

 

 

 

 

 

Tony Joiner

7 tackles, 1 PBU

 

Dustin Doe

7 tackles

 

Derrick Harvey

4 tackles, 1 sack

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Curtis Lofton

10 tackles, 1 TFL

 

Reggie Smith

7 tackles, 1 PBU

 

D. J. Wolfe

6 tackles

 

 

 

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

 

Arizona State 20  Virginia Tech 16

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Arizona State

0

7

3

10

 

20

Virginia Tech

0

6

10

0

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

VT: Jud Dunleavy 38 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 8:55  VT 3  ASU 0

ASU: Michael Jones 17 yd. pass from Carpenter, Weber Kick 2nd qtr. 3:59  ASU 7  VT 3

VT: Jud Dunleavy 31 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 0:00  ASU 7  VT 6

VT: Tyrod Taylor 3 yd. run, Dunleavy Kick 3rd qtr. 11:48  VT 13  ASU 7

VT: Jud Dunleavy 35 yd. FG 3rd qtr. 6:02  VT 16  ASU 7

ASU: Thomas Weber 41 yd. FG 3rd qtr. 2:32  VT 16  ASU 10

ASU: Thomas Weber 37 yd. FG 4th qtr. 8:54  VT 16  ASU 13

ASU: Tyrice Thompson 71 yd. pass from Carpenter, Weber Kick 4th qtr. 3:21  ASU 20  VT 16

 

Team Statistics

Stat

ASU

VT

FD

17

16

Rushing

40-155

41-143

Passing

236

160

Passes

17-29-1

15-26-1

Sacks-Yds

2-11

0-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

1-0

Punting

6-39.0

6-42.5

Punt Ret.

4-9.5

5-12.6

Kick Ret.

4-18.8

5-21.0

Penalties

4-30

7-55

T O P

29:01

30:59

 

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

Arizona State

 

 

 

 

 

Keegan Herring

20

102

17

0

 

Dimitri Nance

14

49

9

0

 

Chris McGaha

1

11

11

0

 

Kyle Williams

2

1

2

0

 

Rudy Carpenter

3

-8

3

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Virginia Tech

 

 

 

 

 

Branden Ore

26

88

11

0

 

Tyrod Taylor

12

49

12

0

 

Kenny Lewis

2

5

3

0

 

Sean Glennon

1

1

1

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

Arizona State

 

 

 

 

 

Rudy Carpenter

17

29

1

236

2

 

 

 

 

 

Virginia Tech

 

 

 

 

 

Sean Glennon

14

23

1

151

0

Tyrod Taylor

1

3

0

9

0

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

Arizona State

 

 

 

 

 

Tyrice Thompson

3

93

71

1

 

Chris McGaha

7

64

13

0

 

Michael Jones

3

39

17

1

 

Rudy Burgess

3

32

18

0

 

Kyle Williams

1

8

8

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Virginia Tech

 

 

 

 

 

Josh Morgan

5

66

18

0

 

Justin Harper

5

48

11

0

 

Eddie Royal

3

32

14

0

 

Branden Ore

1

8

8

0

 

Greg Boone

1

6

6

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

Arizona State

 

 

 

 

 

Robert James

9 tackles, 1 QBH

 

Troy Nolan

6 tackles, 1 Int.

 

Dexter Davis

3 tackles, 2 TFL

 

 

 

 

 

 

Virginia Tech

 

 

 

 

 

Xavier Adibi

8 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack

 

Cam Martin

6 tackles, 1 sack

 

Barry Booker

6 tackles, 1 TFL

 

 

 

COTTON BOWL

 

Southern California 31  LSU 21

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Southern Cal

10

14

7

0

 

31

L S U

0

0

7

14

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

USC: David Buehler 37 yd. FG 1st qtr. 11:45  USC 3  LSU 0

USC: Chauncey Washington 27 yd. run, Buehler Kick 1st qtr 6:27  USC 10  LSU 0

USC: Fred Davis 79 yd. pass from Booty, Buehler Kick 2nd qtr. 8:42  USC 17  LSU 0

USC: Stanley Havili 12 yd. pass from Booty, Buehler Kick 2nd qtr. 1:47  USC 24  LSU 0

LSU: Trindon Holliday 94 yd. Kick Return, David Kick 3rd qtr. 14:49  USC 24  LSU 7

USC: Fred Davis 12 yd. pass from Booty, Buehler Kick 3rd qtr. 3:56  USC 31  LSU 7

LSU: Craig Steltz 48 yd. Interception Return, David Kick 4th qtr. 14:11  USC 31  LSU 14

LSU: Jacob Hester 5 yd. run, David Kick 4th qtr. 2:00  USC 31  LSU 21

 

Team Statistics

Stat

USC

LSU

FD

19

12

Rushing

40-164

27-99

Passing

281

158

Passes

22-36-1

16-33-2

Sacks-Yds

1-5

4-22

Fum-Lst

2-1

2-1

Punting

3-35.7

8-42.0

Punt Ret.

6-11.5

2-11.5

Kick Ret.

3-19.7

6-30.7

Penalties

6-45

4-25

T O P

33:19

26:41

 

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

Southern Cal

 

 

 

 

 

Chauncey Washington

20

98

27

1

 

Joe McKnight

8

27

6

0

 

Stafon Johnson

6

21

7

0

 

Stanley Havili

1

11

11

0

 

John David Booty

2

10

9

0

 

Desmond Reed

3

-3

-1

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

L S U

 

 

 

 

 

Jacob Hester

14

80

12

1

 

Keiland Williams

3

17

8

0

 

Trindon Holliday

4

13

5

0

 

Ryan Perriloux

2

11

9

0

 

Matt Flynn

4

-22

-3

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

Southern Cal

 

 

 

 

 

John David Booty

22

36

1

281

3

 

 

 

 

 

L S U

 

 

 

 

 

Matt Flynn

13

26

1

135

0

Ryan Perriloux

3

7

1

23

0

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

Southern Cal

 

 

 

 

 

Fred Davis

4

109

79

2

 

Patrick Turner

8

80

16

0

 

Vidal Hazleton

7

64

13

0

 

Stanley Havili

2

17

12

1

 

Joe McKnight

1

11

11

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

L S U

 

 

 

 

 

Brandon LaFell

8

94

18

0

 

Early Doucet

5

52

14

0

 

Demetrius Byrd

2

13

9

0

 

Jacob Hester

1

-1

-1

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

Southern Cal

 

 

 

 

 

Lawrence Jackson

7 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 TFL

 

Sedrick Ellis

4 tackles, 2 sacks

 

Terrell Thomas

4 tackles, 1 Int., 1 PBU

 

 

 

 

 

 

L S U

 

 

 

 

 

Craig Steltz

7 tackles, 1 Int. for TD

 

Danny McCray

5 tackles

 

Ali Highsmith

4 tackles, 1 PBU

 

 

 

ROSE BOWL

 

Ohio State 28  West Virginia 17

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Ohio State

7

7

7

7

 

28

West Virginia

0

10

0

7

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

OSU: Chris Wells 8 yd. run, Pretorius Kick 1st qtr. 10:03  OSU 7  WVA 0

WVA: Patrick White 26 yd. run, McAfee Kick 2nd qtr. 12:11  OSU 7  WVA 7

WVA: Pat McAfee 49 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 6:09  WVA 10  OSU 7

OSU: Chris Wells 11 yd. run, Pretorius Kick 2nd qtr. 1:54  OSU 14  WVA 10

OSU: Brian Robiskie 33 yd. pass from Boeckman, Pretorius Kick 3rd qtr. 6:33  OSU 21 WVA 10

OSU: Chris Wells 6 yd. run, Pretorius Kick  4th qtr. 10:11  OSU 28  WVA 10

WVA: Steve Slaton 21 yd. pass from White, McAfee Kick 4th qtr. 4:32  OSU 28  WVA 17

 

Team Statistics

Stat

OSU

WVA

FD

20

16

Rushing

45-211

39-180

Passing

173

132

Passes

14-24-1

12-23-1

Sacks-Yds

0-0

0-0

Fum-Lst

0-0

1-1

Punting

4-43.3

6-40.7

Punt Ret.

4-8.0

3-7.3

Kick Ret.

3-18.0

5-20.2

Penalties

4-25

6-50

T O P

34:39

25:21

 

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

Ohio State

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Wells

21

129

18

3

 

Maurice Wells

16

59

10

0

 

Todd Boeckman

6

20

12

0

 

Brandon Saine

1

3

3

0

 

Ray Small

1

0

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Virginia

 

 

 

 

 

Steve Slaton

19

75

11

0

 

Patrick White

14

73

26

1

 

Noel Devine

2

19

16

0

 

Owen Schmitt

3

11

5

0

 

Jarrett Brown

1

2

2

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

Ohio State

 

 

 

 

 

Todd Boeckman

14

24

1

173

1

 

 

 

 

 

West Virginia

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick White

12

23

1

132

1

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

Ohio State

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Robiskie

4

75

33

1

 

Brian Hartline

4

56

18

0

 

Rory Nichol

3

22

9

0

 

Ray Small

2

13

8

0

 

Maurice Wells

1

7

7

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Virginia

 

 

 

 

 

Dorrell Jalloh

4

64

22

0

 

Steve Slaton

2

29

21

1

 

Darius Reynaud

4

26

11

0

 

Owen Schmitt

2

13

10

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

Ohio State

 

 

 

 

 

James Laurinaitis

12 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 PBU

 

Marcus Freeman

7 tackles

 

Anderson Russell

4 tackles, 1 Int.

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Virginia

 

 

 

 

 

Reed Williams

6 tackles, 1 TFL

 

Ryan Mundy

6 tackles

 

Johnny Dingle

5 tackles, 1 QBH

 

 

Next Up: Semifinals

 

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Ohio State

 

Orange Bowl: Southern California vs. Arizona State

December 7, 2007

2007 NCAA Football Playoffs–Round One Simulation

 

College Football Computer Simulation

 

NCAA Playoffs-1st Round (simulated Date: 12/8/07)

 

GATOR BOWL

 

Florida 34 Georgia 24

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Florida

10

7

14

3

 

34

Georgia

7

3

7

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

FLA: Tim Tebow 4 yd. run, Ijjas Kick 1st qtr. 8:42   Fla 7  Ga. 0

GA: Sean Bailey 16 yd. pass from Stafford, Coutu Kick 1st qtr. 3:11  Fla 7  Ga 7

FLA: Joey Ijjas 37 yd. FG 1st qtr. 0:13  Fla 10  Ga 7

FLA: Andre Caldwell 13 yd. pass from Tebow, Ijjas Kick 2nd qtr. 11:21  Fla 17  Ga 7

GA: Brandon Coutu 46 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 0:00  Fla 17  Ga 10

GA: Knowshon Moreno 10 yd. run, Coutu Kick 3rd qtr. 10:47  Fla 17  Ga 17

FLA: Brandon James 98 yd. kick return, Ijjas Kick 3rd qtr. 10:35  Fla 24  Ga 17

FLA: Tim Tebow 11 yd. run, Ijjas Kick 3rd qtr. 6:59  Fla 31  Ga 17

FLA: Joey Ijjas 33 yd. FG 4th qtr. 9:38  Fla 34  Ga 17

GA: Mohamed Massaquoi 21 yd. pass from Stafford, Coutu Kick 4th qtr. 2:30  Fla 34  Ga 24

Team Statistics

Stat

FLA

GA

FD

21

17

Rushing

42-185

33-112

Passing

214

228

Passes

18-27-0

22-41-2

Sacks-Yds

0-0

1-7

Fum-Lst

1-0

1-1

Punting

3-41.7

5-39.6

Punt Ret.

3-7.8

1-9.0

Kick Ret.

4-21.3

6-18.7

Penalties

4-25

5-35

T O P

29:01

30:59

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

Florida

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Tebow

16

75

11

2

 

Percy Harvin

15

66

10

0

 

Kestahn Moore

10

39

7

0

 

Jarred Fayson

1

5

5

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Georgia

 

 

 

 

 

Thomas Brown

16

63

13

0

 

Knowshon Moreno

11

43

10

1

 

Shaun Chappas

2

5

4

0

 

Brannan Southerland

1

3

3

0

 

Sean Bailey

1

2

2

0

 

Matthew Stafford

2

-4

3

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

Florida

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Tebow

18

27

0

214

1

 

 

 

 

 

Georgia

 

 

 

 

 

Matthew Stafford

22

41

2

228

2

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

Florida

 

 

 

 

 

Percy Harvin

4

56

19

0

 

Andre Caldwell

5

52

16

1

 

Louis Murphy

3

40

17

0

 

Cornelius Ingram

3

37

16

0

 

Kestahn Moore

1

15

15

0

 

Jarred Fayson

2

14

8

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Georgia

 

 

 

 

 

Mohamed Massaquoi

5

71

21

1

 

Sean Bailey

5

60

18

1

 

Tripp Chandler

5

41

10

0

 

Mikey Henderson

4

35

12

0

 

Knowshon Moreno

2

13

8

0

 

Thomas Brown

1

8

8

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

Florida

 

 

 

 

 

Brandon Spikes

9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PBU

 

Dustin Doe

6 tackles

 

Jermaine Cunningham

5 tackles, 1 sack

 

 

 

 

 

 

Georgia

 

 

 

 

 

Dannell Ellerbe

7 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 QBH

 

Reshad Jones

5 tackles

 

Asher Allen

4 tackles

 

 

 

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL

 

West Virginia 27 Kansas 25

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

West Virginia

0

10

7

10

 

27

Kansas

6

7

6

6

 

25

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

KAN: Scott Webb 39 yd. FG 1st qtr. 5:51  Kan 3  WVa 0

KAN: Scott Webb 37 yd. FG 1st qtr. 1:10  Kan 6  WVa 0

KAN: Brandon McAnderson 6 yd. run, Webb Kick 2nd qtr. 11:37  Kan 13  WVa 0

WVA: Pat McAfee 48 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 6:09  Kan 13  WVa 3

WVA: Noel Devine 58 yd. run, McAfee Kick 2nd qtr 0:53  Kan 13  WVa 10

KAN: Scott Webb 40 yd. FG 3rd qtr. 12:19  Kan 16  WVa 10

WVA: Pat White 2 yd. run, McAfee Kick 3rd qtr. 4:39  WVa 17  Kan 16

KAN: Scott Webb 37 yd. FG 3rd qtr. 1:02  Kan 19  WVa 17

KAN: Marcus Henry 64 yd. pass from Reesing, 2-pt try failed 4th qtr. 9:12  Kan 25  WVa 17

WVA: Pat McAfee 34 yd. FG 4th qtr. 7:16  Kan 25  WVa 20

WVA: Steve Slaton 18 yd. run, McAfee Kick 4th qtr. 0:32  WVa 27  Kan 25

Team Statistics

Stat

WVA

KU

FD

19

22

Rushing

47-251

37-185

Passing

159

211

Passes

13-23-1

18-33-0

Sacks-Yds

0-0

1-7

Fum-Lst

2-0

1-0

Punting

6-40.5

4-37.3

Punt Ret.

3-10.3

4-5.0

Kick Ret.

6-22.5

5-20.0

Penalties

6-39

5-40

T O P

32:37

27:23

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

West Virginia

 

 

 

 

 

Pat White

21

91

12

1

 

Steve Slaton

19

79

18

1

 

Noel Devine

5

75

58

1

 

Owen Schmitt

2

6

4

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kansas

 

 

 

 

 

Brandon McAnderson

19

112

21

1

 

Jake Sharp

13

70

12

0

 

Todd Reesing

4

3

5

0

 

Dexton Fields

1

0

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

West Virginia

 

 

 

 

 

Pat White

13

23

1

159

0

 

 

 

 

 

Kansas

 

 

 

 

 

Todd Reesing

18

33

0

211

0

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

West Virginia

 

 

 

 

 

Darius Reynaud

8

113

27

0

 

Dorrell Jalloh

2

21

13

0

 

Steve Slaton

2

19

11

0

 

Owen Schmitt

1

6

6

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kansas

 

 

 

 

 

Marcus Henry

3

85

64

1

 

Dexton Fields

6

53

12

0

 

Derek Fine

3

32

12

0

 

Brandon McAnderson

4

29

10

0

 

Dezmon Briscoe

2

12

6

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

West Virginia

 

 

 

 

 

Reed Williams

9 tackles

 

Marc Magro

7 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack

 

Mortty Ivy

7 tackles

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kansas

 

 

 

 

 

Joe Mortensen

8 tackles, 2 TFL

 

Mike Rivera

7 tackles, 1 PBU

 

James Holt

7 tackles, 1 TFL

 

HOLIDAY BOWL

 

Southern California 45 Hawaii 24

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Southern Cal

14

14

3

14

 

45

Hawaii

3

0

7

14

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

USC: Chauncey Washington 8 yd. run, Buehler Kick 1st qtr. 9:42  USC 7  Haw 0

USC: John David Booty 1 yd. run, Buehler Kick 1st qtr. 5:28  USC 14  Haw 0

HAW: Dan Kelly 40 yd. FG 1st qtr. 2:55  USC 14  Haw 3

USC: Joe McKnight 8 yd. run, Buehler Kick 2nd qtr. 11:44  USC 21  Haw 3

USC: Fred Davis 14 yd. pass from Booty, Buehler Kick 2nd qtr. 4:57  USC 28  Haw 3

HAW: Jason Rivers 17 yd. pass from Brennan, Kelly Kick 3rd qtr. 8:38  USC 28  Haw 10

USC: David Buehler 49 yd. FG 3rd qtr. 1:43  USC 31  Haw 10

USC: Chauncey Washington 6 yd. run, Buehler Kick 4th qtr. 13:12  USC 38  Haw 10

USC: Keith Rivers recovered fumble in end zone, Buehler Kick 4th qtr. 11:58  USC 45  Haw 10

HAW: Ryan Grice-Mullen 18 yd. pass from Brennan, Kelly Kick 4th qtr. 6:08  USC 45  Haw 17

HAW: Davone Bess 11 yd. pass from Brennan, Kelly Kick 4th qtr. 2:33  USC 45  Haw 24

Team Statistics

Stat

USC

HAW

FD

26

22

Rushing

42-223

19-40

Passing

255

444

Passes

23-36-0

37-56-2

Sacks-Yds

0-0

5-27

Fum-Lst

0-0

1-1

Punting

1-38.0

3-40.3

Punt Ret.

3-5.7

0-0

Kick Ret.

4-23.0

8-21.3

Penalties

6-40

4-27

T O P

34:22

25:38

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

Southern Cal

 

 

 

 

 

Chauncey Washington

19

153

24

2

 

Stafon Johnson

12

46

11

0

 

Joe McKnight

5

19

8

1

 

Stanley Havili

2

7

4

0

 

John David Booty

4

-2

-1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hawaii

 

 

 

 

 

Kealoa Pilares

11

63

19

0

 

Daniel Libre

3

4

4

0

 

Colt Brennan

5

-27

-2

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

Southern Cal

 

 

 

 

 

John David Booty

23

35

0

255

1

Desmond Reed

0

1

0

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

Hawaii

 

 

 

 

 

Colt Brennan

37

56

2

444

3

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

Southern Cal

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick Turner

13

133

18

0

 

Stanley Havili

6

79

20

0

 

Fred Davis

3

34

15

1

 

Vidal Hazelton

1

9

9

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hawaii

 

 

 

 

 

Ryan Grice-Mullen

12

172

30

1

 

Davone Bess

8

103

19

1

 

Jason Rivers

7

85

20

1

 

Daniel Libre

4

41

15

0

 

C.J. Hawthorne

4

36

13

0

 

Kealoa Pilares

2

7

7

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

Southern Cal

 

 

 

 

 

Keith Rivers

7 tackles, 1 Fum Rec for TD

 

Rey Maualuga

6 tackles, 1 TFL

 

Lawrence Jackson

5 tackles, 2 sacks

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hawaii

 

 

 

 

 

Jacob Patek

8 tackles, 1 PBU

 

Solomon Elimimian

6 tackles

 

Adam Leonard

5 tackles, 1 TFL

 

OUTBACK BOWL

 

Arizona State 38 Missouri 30

 

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Missouri

7

9

7

7

 

30

Arizona State

0

3

21

14

 

38

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

MO: Jeremy Maclin 21 yd. run, Wolfert Kick 1st qtr. 7:29  Mo 7  ASU 0

MO: Safety–ASU holding penalty in end zone 2nd qtr. 13:48  Mo 9  ASU 0

MO: Martin Rucker 17 yd. pass from Daniel, Wolfert Kick 2nd qtr. 9:25  Mo 16  ASU 0

ASU: Thomas Weber 51 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 0:03  Mo 16  ASU 3

MO: Jeremy Maclin 43 yd. pass from Daniel, Wolfert Kick 3rd qtr. 10:09  Mo 23  ASU 3

ASU: Michael Jones 21 yd. pass from Carpenter, Weber Kick 3rd qtr. 8:11  Mo 23  ASU 10

ASU: Justin Tryon 61 yd. Interception return, Weber Kick 3rd qtr. 5:41  Mo 23  ASU 17

ASU: Keegan Herring 9 yd. run, Weber Kick 3rd qtr. 1:17  ASU 24  Mo 23

ASU: Kyle Williams 14 yd. pass from Carpenter, Weber Kick 4th qtr. 9:56  ASU 31  Mo 23

ASU: Keegan Herring 24 yd. run, Weber Kick 4th qtr. 6:40  ASU 38  Mo 23

MO: Chase Daniel 7 yd. run, Wolfert Kick 4th qtr. 2:20  ASU 38  Mo 30

Team Statistics

Stat

MO

ASU

FD

23

22

Rushing

37-161

39-132

Passing

296

278

Passes

27-40-2

19-33-1

Sacks-Yds

3-15

2-14

Fum-Lst

1-0

2-1

Punting

4-36.1

3-39.1

Punt Ret.

1-12.0

3-10.7

Kick Ret.

6-20.8

5-22.0

Penalties

7-55

4-30

T O P

33:16

26:44

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

Missouri

 

 

 

 

 

Tony Temple

22

110

14

0

 

Chase Daniel

9

18

8

1

 

Jeremy Maclin

2

24

21

1

 

Jimmy Jackson

3

7

3

0

 

Danario Alexander

1

2

2

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona State

 

 

 

 

 

Keegan Herring

19

77

14

2

 

Dimitri Nance

16

66

17

0

 

Kyle Williams

1

4

4

0

 

Rudy Carpenter

3

-15

-1

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

Missouri

 

 

 

 

 

Chase Daniel

27

40

2

296

2

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona State

 

 

 

 

 

Rudy Carpenter

19

33

1

278

2

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

Missouri

 

 

 

 

 

Martin Rucker

8

85

17

1

 

Chase Coffman

8

82

17

0

 

Jeremy Maclin

4

73

43

1

 

Will Franklin

4

33

11

0

 

Tommy Saunders

2

15

9

0

 

Danario Alexander

1

8

8

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona State

 

 

 

 

 

Michael Jones

6

132

34

1

 

Chris McGaha

7

74

15

0

 

Rudy Burgess

4

53

18

0

 

Kyle Williams

2

19

14

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

Missouri

 

 

 

 

 

William Moore

7 tackles, 1 PBU

 

Sean Weatherspoon

6 tackles, 1 TFL

 

Justin Garrett

4 tackles, 1 Int.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona State

 

 

 

 

 

Justin Tryon

5 tackles, 1 Int for TD

 

Troy Nolan

5 tackles, 1 Int.

 

Robert James

5 tackles, 2 sacks

 

Coming Next:  The Quarterfinals (Elite Eight)

 

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida

 

Capital One Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona State

 

Cotton Bowl: L S U vs. Southern California

 

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. West Virginia

 

Look for the results of this round to be posted the week of Saturday, December 15, even though this round is simulated to take place on December 22.

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