The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 11, 2011

The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Divisional Round

NFL Playoffs—Divisional Round

Saturday, January 15, 2011 

4:30 PM EST on CBS-TV

Baltimore Ravens (13-4-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4-0)

 

Vegas:        Pit by 3

Totals:       37 

PiRate:       Pit by 1.4

Mean:         Pit by 3.8

Bias:           Pit by 4.7 

100 Simulations:         Pit 57  Bal 43

Avg. Sim Score             Pit 19.3  Bal 16.7

Outlier A:                     Pit 31  Bal 7

Outlier B:                     Bal 24  Pit 6

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Pit 4  Bal 1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Ovr-3         Und—2

 

8:00 PM EST on Fox-TV

Green Bay Packers (11-6-0) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3-0) 

Vegas:        Atl by 2

Totals:       45 ½

 

PiRate:       GB by 2.2

Mean:         GB by 0.2

Bias:           GB by 0.7 

100 Simulations:         GB 61  Atl 39

Avg. Sim Score             GB 27.2  Atl 20.3

Outlier A:                     GB 33  Atl 14

Outlier B:                     Atl 30  GB 13 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   GB—4                    Atl—1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und—3       Ovr—2       

 

Sunday, January 16, 2011

 

1:00 PM EST on Fox-TV

Seattle Seahawks (8-9-0) at Chicago Bears (11-5-0) 

Vegas:        Chi by 10

Totals:       40 

PiRate:       Chi by 11.3

Mean:         Chi by 11.7

Bias:           Chi by 9.0 

100 Simulations:         Chi 91  Sea 9

Avg. Sim Score             Chi 26.6  Sea 11.8

Outlier A:                     Chi 38  Sea 0

Outlier B:                     Sea 17  Chi 12

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Chi—4        Sea—1       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und—3       Ovr—2       

 

4:30 PM EST on CBS-TV

New York Jets (12-5-0) at New England Patriots (14-2-0) 

Vegas:        NE by 8 ½

Totals:       45 ½  

PiRate:       NE by 14.8

Mean:         NE by 11.1

Bias:           NE by 2.2 

100 Simulations:         NE 82  NYJ 18

Avg. Sim Score             NE 26.7  NYJ 16.6

Outlier A:                     NE 34  NYJ 10

Outlier B:                     NYJ 24  NE 16 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   NE—3          NYJ—2       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und—4       Ovr—1       

 

We do not have official picks during the Playoffs, but here is our Unofficial–Recommended 13-point Teaser Parlays   

Parlay-1

Green Bay & Atlanta OVER 32 ½

Chicago & Seattle UNDER 53

Pittsburgh & Baltimore OVER 24

New England & New York Jets UNDER 58 ½

 

Parlay-2

Green Bay +15 vs. Atlanta

Chicago +3 vs. Seattle

Pittsburgh +10 vs. Baltimore

New England +4 ½ vs. New York Jets

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September 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 3–September 26-27, 2010

Two weeks into the NFL season brings very few surprises.  Tampa Bay and Kansas City are 2-0, while Dallas and Minnesota are 0-2.  Overall, defenses are ahead of offenses on the whole, and it looks like very few teams will top 400 points this season.  The 3-4 defense with the zone blitz has stymied many quarterbacks, and we are seeing more 14-10 type games.  

We’ve noticed that punt returns are a dying art.  Punters are getting adequate hang time; more punts are being made that are not returnable, and players like Devin Hester are not getting the opportunity to return punts.

As we mentioned in the college ratings, our 10 and 13-point sweetheart teaser plays have been like gold to us so far.  If the scores continue to be lower than normal, these should continue to pay dividends for us.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase this week’s picks.  Deadline is 7 PM Eastern Time Wednesdays.  All purchases made after the deadline will be applied to the next week’s games.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             

NFC East 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas  102.4 100.2 99.4 0-2-0 13.5 20.0
Philadelphia  100.8 100.5 102.2 1-1-0 27.5 29.5
New York Giants 100.0 99.8 100.1 1-1-0 22.5 28.0
Washington 99.4 99.9 101.8 1-1-0 20.0 18.5
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 106.6 107.7 108.4 2-0-0 30.5 13.5
Minnesota 103.5 103.2 102.7 0-2-0 9.5 14.0
Chicago 101.5 99.8 103.4 2-0-0 23.0 17.0
Detroit 92.5 92.4 92.9 0-2-0 23.0 27.0
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 106.0 104.9 105.3 1-1-0 25.0 11.0
New Orleans 104.8 106.3 106.5 2-0-0 19.5 15.5
Carolina 98.3 97.1 96.2 0-2-0 12.5 25.5
Tampa Bay 96.5 99.7 100.6 2-0-0 18.5 10.5
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 99.2 96.6 98.7 0-2-0 14.0 28.0
Arizona 96.2 95.6 96.1 1-1-0 12.0 27.0
Seattle 94.2 96.3 99.4 1-1-0 22.5 18.5
St. Louis 89.9 89.8 90.1 0-2-0 13.5 16.5
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 107.9 105.1 105.1 1-1-0 18.5 12.0
New England 105.0 102.9 102.9 1-1-0 26.0 26.0
Miami 102.8 102.6 101.8 2-0-0 14.5 10.0
Buffalo 95.2 94.5 91.5 0-2-0 8.5 24.5
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 105.3 103.7 103.7 1-1-0 10.0 12.0
Pittsburgh 102.3 105.0 105.2 2-0-0 17.0 10.0
Cincinnati 100.7 99.8 99.6 1-1-0 19.5 24.0
Cleveland 96.2 94.9 95.3 0-2-0 14.0 16.5
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.7 106.1 106.5 1-1-0 31.0 24.0
Houston 103.5 104.7 104.2 2-0-0 32.0 25.5
Tennessee 99.9 101.4 98.6 1-1-0 24.5 16.0
Jacksonville 95.6 96.3 94.3 1-1-0 18.5 27.5
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 102.5 104.4 100.3 1-1-0 26.0 17.0
Kansas City 97.7 99.1 98.9 2-0-0 18.5 14.0
Denver 97.0 98.3 96.8 1-1-0 24.0 19.0
Oakland 92.0 91.8 91.5 1-1-0 14.5 26.0

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 3: September 26-27, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 10:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW YORK GIANTS Tennessee 3.1 1.4 4.5 3    42   
NEW ENGLAND Buffalo 13.8 12.4 15.4 14    42 1/2
BALTIMORE Cleveland 12.1 11.8 11.4 10 1/2 37   
Bitmap

Pittsburgh
TAMPA BAY 7.8 7.3 6.6 2 1/2 33   
CAROLINA Cincinnati 0.6 5.2 3.9 -3    38 1/2
NEW ORLEANS Atlanta 1.8 4.4 4.2 4    49 1/2
KANSAS CITY San Francisco 0.5 4.5 2.2 -3    36 1/2
MINNESOTA Detroit 15.0 14.8 13.8 11    42 1/2
HOUSTON Dallas 3.1 6.5 6.8 3    47 1/2
Washington ST. LOUIS 7.5 8.1 9.7 3 1/2 38   
Philadelphia JACKSONVILLE 2.2 1.2 4.9 3    44 1/2
Indianapolis DENVER 4.7 4.8 6.7 5 1/2 48   
San Diego SEATTLE 6.3 6.1 -1.1 5 1/2 44   
ARIZONA Oakland 6.2 5.8 6.6 4    39   
New York Jets MIAMI 3.1 0.5 1.3 -2 1/2 34 1/2
Green Bay CHICAGO 2.1 4.9 2.0 3    46   

August 26, 2010

2010 PiRate Ratings NFL Preseason Ratings & Predictions

PiRate Ratings 2010 NFL Preseason Ratings & Predictions

 

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we were 60.6% against the spread in 2009!

 

The 2010 edition of the NFL PiRate Ratings makes its debut today, and we have tweaked the ratings just a bit this season.  Every year, we evaluate every team’s ability to run the ball, pass the ball, defend the run, defend the pass, and all the special teams play.

 

Breaking down the run, we look at the offensive blocking for the run, the ability of the team to run up the gut and pick up two yards on 3rd & two, the ability to get outside and pick up a lot of yards, and so forth.  To us, it is more important to know the situation of each running play rather than the raw average.  If a team has a 1st & Ten at its own 20 yard line and runs the ball five consecutive times for eight, ten, four, two, and two yards, that team has averaged 5.2 yards per rush, but that team must now punt on 4th & two at their 46 yard line.

 

If that same team starts at its 20 yard line and runs the ball five consecutive times for four yards on every play, that team has averaged just four yards per rush, but they now have a 3rd & two—a much better proposition than 4th & two.

 

We break down the pass in a similar way.  We look at pass protection, passer ability, and pass receiving ability.  Passing percentage matters very little (virtually nothing).  Yardage gained and maintaining possession of the ball are all that matters.    

 

Of course, for every offensive action, there is a corresponding defensive action that we rate.  This year, we have given a little more weight to pass rush over pass coverage.  Sacks and hurries are becoming more influential in today’s short passing game offenses.  If you look at a typical game today, 80% of the passes thrown in the NFL are thrown to receivers/backs less than 10 yards pass the line of scrimmage.  The three and five-step drop have displaced the seven-step drop and longer passes.  Most longer passes today are of the play-action variety.  Of course, the 3rd & 20 situation still leads to the longer pass plays. 

 

With so many shorter passing routes against two-deep coverage, the pass rush deserves a little more weight at the expense of the pass coverage.  We are not talking about a major shift; this is more like a fraction of points, or what we call moving the minute hand on our watch by a minute to synchronize it with Coordinated Universal Time.

 

For those of you who are new to the PiRate Ratings, these ratings are only good for the current week’s games.  Since the season actually does not begin for a couple weeks, we may tweak them in the next 10-12 days once all cuts and late free-agent pickups are made. 

 

Additionally, we advise you not to use our raw ratings to pick games.  We offer picks against the spread at our sister site, www.piratings.webs.com, and we NEVER use the raw ratings.  If every scheduled game was played 100 times, then the ratings would be quite accurate.  We look at several variables and intangibles in addition to the pointspread to analyze each game and try to find a favorable angle that “gives” us an extra point or two.

 

You will see three ratings for each team: The PiRate, The Mean, and The Bias Rating.  Each rating is based on 100 being level par.  If a team has a rating of 103.7, then consider that team 3.7 points better than average. 

 

The PiRate is the raw score we give each team based on all the variables we discussed above (running, passing, etc.).  The Mean Rating is a separate rating of 12 variables that we have used since 1979.  It is purely statistical based on many of the same variables used for the PiRate Rating.  We take the exact average of those 12 variables and use a constant and a multiplier to produce a par of 100.  The Bias Rating takes those same 12 variables and gives each rating a different weight in the formula.  All three ratings have been quite accurate through the years. 

 

Here are the preseason ratings for the 32 teams.  Each week, the teams will be ranked by division in order of PiRate Rating.  We do not calculate an average of these three ratings, but you can if you want to. 

Initial Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 104.5 106.3 106.9 0-0-0 0 0
Philadelphia 101.7 104.1 98.7 0-0-0 0 0
New York Giants 100.0 99.9 102.3 0-0-0 0 0
Washington 98.3 96.1 95.8 0-0-0 0 0
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 104.8 108.0 107.9 0-0-0 0 0
Green Bay 104.1 106.7 105.7 0-0-0 0 0
Chicago 100.5 97.3 98.9 0-0-0 0 0
Detroit 92.1 88.1 89.4 0-0-0 0 0
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 105.2 109.8 106.6 0-0-0 0 0
Atlanta 104.7 103.5 104.6 0-0-0 0 0
Carolina 101.6 103.6 100.4 0-0-0 0 0
Tampa Bay 94.3 94.5 92.3 0-0-0 0 0
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 101.6 100.8 102.2 0-0-0 0 0
Arizona 98.5 100.3 99.1 0-0-0 0 0
Seattle 92.2 91.1 94.8 0-0-0 0 0
St. Louis 90.1 85.9 87.3 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 107.3 106.3 106.2 0-0-0 0 0
New England 105.7 106.5 105.4 0-0-0 0 0
Miami 101.1 100.4 100.8 0-0-0 0 0
Buffalo 97.6 97.4 95.9 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 105.6 106.3 106.5 0-0-0 0 0
Pittsburgh 100.9 102.2 101.8 0-0-0 0 0
Cincinnati 100.3 100.0 99.4 0-0-0 0 0
Cleveland 97.3 93.2 93.2 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.9 106.8 107.1 0-0-0 0 0
Houston 102.0 101.9 101.9 0-0-0 0 0
Tennessee 97.9 99.3 101.2 0-0-0 0 0
Jacksonville 96.3 94.8 97.0 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 102.5 106.0 104.6 0-0-0 0 0
Denver 96.6 99.3 98.5 0-0-0 0 0
Kansas City 95.7 92.3 94.5 0-0-0 0 0
Oakland 94.2 91.4 92.8 0-0-0 0 0

 

The following predictions are not based on the above ratings.  Remember, these ratings are not usable to select future games.  They are not even 100% affected by the scores of each week’s games.  For instance, San Diego would be considered a 6.8-point favorite in the PiRate Ratings over Kansas City in a neutral-site game (before intangibles and other variables).  Even if San Diego won 24-17, their PiRate rating would be adjusted based on how they won by a touchdown.  Suppose the Chiefs led 17-10 with five minutes to go in the game and had a 100-yard advantage, and the Chargers blocked two punts and recovered them in the end zone for touchdowns.  Or, what if the Chargers led 24-3 after three quarters but then lost their three linebackers to season-ending injuries?  The ratings would change drastically depending on how this 24-17 score occurred.

These predictions are our own personal opinions on how we think the season will pan out.  Take them for what it is worth.

NFC East W L   AFC East W L  
Dallas 10 6   New England 10 6  
New York 9 7   Miami 10 6  
Philadelphia 7 9   New York 9 7  
Washington 6 10   Buffalo 4 12  
                   
NFC South W L   AFC South W L  
New Orleans 13 3   Indianapolis 12 4  
Atlanta 10 6   Tennessee 9 7  
Carolina 7 9   Houston 8 8  
Tampa Bay 4 12   Jacksonville 5 11  
                   
NFC North W L   AFC North W L  
Green Bay 12 4   Baltimore 13 3  
Chicago 9 7   Pittsburgh 9 7  
Minnesota 9 7   Cincinnati 8 8  
Detroit 5 11   Cleveland 3 13  
                   
NFC West W L   AFC West W L  
San Francisco 9 7   San Diego 10 6  
Arizona 7 9   Oakland 7 9  
Seattle 6 10   Denver 7 9  
St. Louis 3 13   Kansas City 6 10  
                   
Wildcard Playoffs   Wildcard Playoffs  
San Diego over Tennessee   Dallas over Chicago  
Miami over New England   Atlanta over San Francisco  
       
Divisional Playoffs   Divisional Playoffs  
Baltimore over Miami   New Orleans over Atlanta  
San Diego over Indianapolis   Green Bay over Dallas  
       
AFC Championship   NFC Championship  
Baltimore over San Diego   Green Bay over New Orleans  
                   
Super Bowl  
Baltimore over Green Bay  

January 4, 2010

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings: January 4, 2010

PLAYOFFS!!! DO TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!!!

With Apologies to Jim Mora, Sr.

 

The folks at ESPN and other networks carrying the college bowls need to look at their ratings for these meaningless games they have been carrying for the last couple of weeks.  Take a look at the ratings for this coming weekend’s playoff games.  The Alamo Bowl and Gator Bowl equivalents will be played this weekend and known as the Wildcard Playoff Round.  Both of those bowls had a news angle to them.  Bobby Bowden coached in his final game in the Gator Bowl, and Texas Tech minus Coach Mike Leach played in the Alamo Bowl.  I didn’t watch either game, as the baseball book I read Friday and Saturday was much more entertaining. 

Note: If you want to be floored by just how much a drop-dead gorgeous actress knows about baseball, read Alyssa Milano’s new book Safe at Home. She just picked up a new customer, as I will be purchasing Twins’ clothing for my female relatives on their next birthdays.

 

The irony of this week’s opening slate of playoff games is that three of the four games are sequels of yesterday’s week 17 games.  Arizona and Green Bay will hook up again in Phoenix and Dallas and Philadelphia will do it over again in Arlington, Texas.  The Jets and Bengals will be a little more democratic than the other two games; they will switch venues from the Meadowlands to Paul Brown Stadium.

At first glance, this seems to make these games less electrifying, since the teams will play two games in a row, and in less than a week in the case of the two Saturday games (Jets-Bengals & Cowboys-Eagles).  Nothing could be further from the truth.  It will add to the excitement.  Football is a lot more than just blood and guts.  It is perhaps the one sport that is affected by coaching strategy than any other.  It is a chess game with human pieces.

Imagine how much different the games would be if the coaches were forced to share their game plans in advance.  In the case of Philadelphia and Dallas, this game meant a lot as homefield advantage and a possible bye were riding on the outcome.  Both teams had to show the other team everything they had in preparation for this game, and now both teams have one less day to prepare for the rematch. 

Cincinnati had little to play for against the Jets, so they benefitted from getting a good luck at everything Coach Rex Ryan’s team had, since the Jets had to win the game.  Think of it as one team getting to see the other team’s game plan.  Even with Cincinnati swooning in the second half of the season, one has to believe this repeat game gives the Bengals twice the homefield advantage of a normal NFL game.

Green Bay and Arizona really didn’t gain much repeat advantage when the two squared off yesterday.  In this case, it was the devastating results of personnel injuries.  The Packers saw ace defensive back Charles Woodson go down with a shoulder injury, while Arizona saw star receiver Anquan Boldin leave the game with an ankle injury; defensive end Calais Campbell suffered a broken thumb, and defensive back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie injured his knee.  Even if these four players can play again this week, none will be at 100%.

The one game that isn’t a rematch of week 17 finds Baltimore going to New England.  Both of these teams are talented enough to run the table and get a ticker tape parade in February.

Now, throw into the equation that the two AFC games will have serious weather issues this weekend.  It’s still too early to know for sure, but it looks like the Bengals-Jets game will be played in temperatures around 20 degrees with a chance of snow.  The Patriots-Ravens game should have clear skies, but the temperature should be in the upper teens.  When it’s this cold, it becomes much more difficult to pass and catch the ball and slightly more difficult to hold onto the ball on running plays and field kicks.  In the old days, players would just put enough “stick-em” on their hands to become a ball magnet.  The leather gets really slippery when the temperature dips below 25. 

For those of you who have chosen to purchase our weekly picks on the webpage (www.piratings.webs.com), we will have a different approach for the playoffs.  We concluded the regular season with a 5-2 record for the week, and that brought our seasonal record to 94-61-2 (60.6%).  For the NFL playoffs, we will offer a $10 package that is good for all playoff games.  Instead of giving you an exact card to play, we will diagnose every game and give you the PiRate Rating predicted score, the Mean Rating predicted score, the Bias Rating predicted score, and the infamous 100 simulations results from the research lab computer that proved that garbage in, garbage out isn’t always the case.  If you want to know more about the 100 simulations playoff results, check in on last year’s Super Bowl blog here: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/pirate-ratings-super-bowl-43-preview/ .  You will find the computer simulator was very accurate in the 2008-2009 playoffs.  Check it out on the webpage at “Playoff Winners: $10.

NFL Regular Season Epilog

 

The NFL regular season concluded with a couple of important games, while the other games proved to be about as important as the Sun Bowl.  Here are some points to ponder.

1. The Cincinnati Bengals finished the season 3-4.  They averaged only 15.8 points per game in the nine weeks after their bye week.  They gave up 26 points per game in their final four games.  Is this the look of a playoff team?  Cleveland looked more like the playoff team, winning their final four games by an average of 8.5 points per game.

2. Denver has swooned for the second year in a row.  Second verse was same as the first.  A fast start, a mediocre middle, and an 0-4 conclusion saw the Broncos eliminated from the playoffs yet again.  The 44-24 loss to the Chiefs capped a 2-8 finish after a 6-0 start.  During the 2009 flop, the Broncos were outscored 258-193 and lost to both Kansas City and Oakland, as well as lowly Washington.  The Broncos could finish in last place in the AFC West in 2010, as they will have a harder schedule than the Raiders and Chiefs.

3. The New York Giants began the season 5-0 and finished 8-8.   Their defense gave up 14.2 points per game in the 5-0 start and 32.4 points per game in the 3-8 finish.

4. The Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers were the opposites of the Broncos and Giants.  Carolina found itself in an 0-3 hole and slowly climbed back to finish 8-8.  Tennessee began 0-6 and finished 8-2 with Vince Young at quarterback.

5. The two hottest teams in the league are the Chargers and Packers.  While New Orleans, Indianapolis, and Minnesota were hogging the headlines, San Diego won their last 11 games by more than a 13-point average margin.  Included in this string were victories over three playoff teams—Philadelphia, Dallas, and Cincinnati.  Green Bay found itself in a hole after losing to then winless Tampa Bay and falling to 4-4.  In the second half of the season, the Packers finished 7-1 with an average scoring margin of 30.8 to 15.6.

6. Speaking of Indy and New Orleans, no team has every won the Super Bowl after beginning the year with a 10+-game winning streak and tailing off at the end of the year.  Look at last year’s Titans.  They were 10-0 and finished 13-3.  The Titans promptly exited in their first playoff game and then saw it mount to an 0-6 start this season.  You may ask when was the last time a team lost its final two (as in the Colts) or three (as in the Saints) games of the regular season and then won the Super Bowl?  The Green Bay Packers of 1967 dropped their final two regular season games and then won Super Bowl II.  No team has ever lost their last three regular season games and won the Super Bowl.  In fact, going back to the pre-Super Bowl days, no team has every won the league championship after losing their final three regular season games.

7. There has been a consistent predictor of NFL playoff winners over the course of four plus decades.  Almost every NFL Champion since 1960 has possessed a trio of shared traits.  Of course, it’s not that easy.  In many years, three or more teams possessed these traits.  However, in only a couple of years did the champion not possess the traits we speak of.  If you want to know what these traits are, you’ll have to sign up for our postseason coverage at www.piratings.webs.com.  $10 will buy you analysis on every playoff game.

Final Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings

           
               

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas  106.3 107.4 107.2 11-5-0 361 250
Philadelphia  105.1 105.3 105.3 11-5-0 429 337
New York Giants 98.8 99.6 99.9 8-8-0 402 427
Washington  96.9 96.2 95.3 4-12-0 266 336
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay  108.2 108.3 108.3 11-5-0 461 297
Minnesota 106.3 106.6 106.4 12-4-0 470 312
Chicago 97.1 97.2 98.5 7-9-0 327 375
Detroit 87.8 87.6 86.9 2-14-0 262 494
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 106.9 107.3 106.1 13-3-0 510 341
Carolina 106.1 103.7 103.4 8-8-0 315 308
Atlanta   103.9 103.6 103.6 9-7-0 363 325
Tampa Bay 94.3 94.5 95.0 3-13-0 244 400
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 102.3 101.3 101.6 8-8-0 330 281
Arizona 101.3 99.9 102.3 10-6-0 375 325
Seattle 88.0 90.5 90.6 5-11-0 280 390
St. Louis 84.4 85.5 84.6 1-15-0 175 436
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 107.8 107.8 106.4 10-6-0 427 285
NY Jets 105.1 106.7 105.6 9-7-0 348 236
Miami 97.9 99.8 99.2 7-9-0 360 390
Buffalo 95.4 97.7 97.1 6-10-0 258 326
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 108.8 105.9 105.6 9-7-0 391 261
Pittsburgh 104.3 101.8 103.9 9-7-0 368 324
Cincinnati 98.8 99.7 101.7 10-6-0 305 291
Cleveland 94.9 96.7 98.0 5-11-0 245 375
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 107.3 104.4 106.2 14-2-0 416 307
Houston   103.3 101.9 103.1 9-7-0 388 333
Tennessee 100.4 98.5 101.8 8-8-0 354 402
Jacksonville 93.7 94.2 97.2 7-9-0 290 380
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 111.5 106.8 109.3 13-3-0 454 320
Denver 95.3 99.3 99.8 8-8-0 326 324
Oakland   92.8 91.6 92.9 5-11-0 197 379
Kansas City 91.4 92.6 92.3 4-12-0 294 424

December 29, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 17: January 3, 2010

NFL Week 17 Preview

Warning: Electrifying Playoffs Ahead!!!

 

All of a sudden what seemed to be an ironclad cut and dry Super Bowl between New Orleans and Indianapolis now looks like it could just as easily be Green Bay and The Jets.  Parity has come along late in the season, and the best teams no longer look unbeatable, while some of the worst may be among the best.

The Saints have dropped consecutive games.  Only one other time in NFL history has a team been undefeated until three games to go and then lost all three.  The 1969 Los Angeles Rams opened 11-0 before losing their final three games.  They promptly lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Vikings a possible playoff opponent in the second round if Minnesota and Philadelphia lose this week while Arizona wins.

The six NFC playoff teams are known.  New Orleans has secured the top spot.  Philadelphia currently holds down the number two seed, but the Eagles must win at Dallas to keep it. The Eagles hold the tiebreaker over Minnesota if both teams finish 12-4.  Should Dallas beat Philadelphia, the Vikings hold the tiebreaker over the Cowboys.  Should Dallas win and Minnesota lose, Arizona could take the second seed with a win over Green Bay.  Dallas would get the bye only if they beat Philadelphia and both Minnesota and Arizona lost.

Green Bay holds the tiebreaker edge over Dallas if they finish tied in the wildcard position.  They could possibly play at Arizona in consecutive weeks, which would be quite interesting.

The AFC is a big mess.  And, to make matters worse, some of the larger websites are wrong on which teams control their own destiny.  If you have read that Denver is in with a win, then you have been victimized by shoddy information.

The two AFC teams in control of their own destiny are New York and Baltimore.  Denver needs help to make the playoffs even though if the playoffs started today, they would be in.  The problem is this week’s schedule changes to formula.  So, The Jets and Ravens are the teams who get in if they win.

Denver can get in with a win and losses or ties by either Baltimore or Pittsburgh; or a loss by the Jets and a Houston win.  If the Broncos lose, then they would make the playoffs with a slew of losses by other teams (more than we can list and so improbable that there is no reason to list).

Houston can clinch a playoff spot with a win and at two from among Baltimore, Denver, and The Jets lose and/or tie.

Pittsburgh can make the playoffs with a win and: Houston and either Jets or Ravens lose and/or tie;  or Jets, Baltimore and Denver lose and/or tie.

Miami and Jacksonville can only get to 8-8 with wins, and too many things must happen for either to qualify.  For the Dolphins to sneak in, they must beat Pittsburgh and then have the Jets, Ravens, and Texans lose and Jacksonville lose or tie.  Jacksonville needs a win over Cleveland plus losses by four more teams (several combinations but most include Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Denver).

New England holds the tiebreaker over Cincinnati in the battle for the third seed.

Looking at this week’s closing schedule, the Jets and the Ravens have tough opponents, but both teams should win if they play up to their capacity.  Oakland knocked Tampa Bay out of the playoffs last year, but we cannot see the Raiders beating the hard-nosed Ravens.  The Jets face Cincinnati at home, and the Bengals may be the weakest division winner in several years. 

If things go the way the PiRate Ratings say they should, here’s how the playoffs should look:

Wildcard Round

NFC

#6 Dallas at #3 Minnesota

#5 Green Bay at #4 Arizona

 

AFC

#6 Baltimore at #3 New England

#5 New York Jets at #4 Cincinnati

 

Divisional Round

 

NFC

#1 New Orleans hosts lower remaining seed

#2 Philadelphia hosts higher remaining seed

 

AFC

#1 Indianapolis hosts lower remaining seed

#2 San Diego hosts higher remaining seed

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
               
               
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NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 106.4 106.5 107.6 11-4-0 429 313
Dallas 105.0 104.4 105.7 10-5-0 337 250
New York Giants 100.9 101.1 101.9 8-7-0 395 383
Washington 95.3 96.0 91.3 4-11-0 246 313
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 106.2 105.7 106.8 10-5-0 428 290
Minnesota 104.2 106.1 105.3 11-4-0 426 305
Chicago 96.1 96.6 96.4 6-9-0 290 352
Detroit 88.8 88.5 84.9 2-13-0 239 457
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 108.1 109.9 108.0 13-2-0 500 318
Carolina 104.9 100.3 100.7 7-8-0 292 298
Atlanta   103.2 102.0 103.1 8-7-0 343 315
Tampa Bay 95.0 93.1 93.1 3-12-0 234 380
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.3 102.4 104.4 10-5-0 368 292
San Francisco 100.0 101.5 99.4 7-8-0 302 275
Seattle 87.2 91.9 89.5 5-10-0 267 373
St. Louis 86.7 86.6 86.5 1-14-0 169 408
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 108.6 108.7 107.3 10-5-0 400 251
NY Jets 103.3 104.7 104.2 8-7-0 311 236
Miami 99.1 101.0 100.9 7-8-0 336 360
Buffalo 94.3 95.9 94.1 5-10-0 228 319
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 109.5 106.5 105.8 8-7-0 370 248
Pittsburgh 103.1 100.7 104.0 8-7-0 338 300
Cincinnati 100.6 101.6 103.1 10-5-0 305 254
Cleveland 94.2 91.8 94.4 4-11-0 222 358
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 108.4 108.6 109.6 14-1-0 409 277
Houston   102.5 102.2 103.0 8-7-0 354 306
Tennessee 101.2 100.1 102.3 7-8-0 337 389
Jacksonville 94.4 95.8 98.3 7-8-0 273 357
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 109.9 106.6 108.9 12-3-0 431 300
Denver 98.3 102.2 102.2 8-7-0 302 280
Oakland   92.1 90.9 90.8 5-10-0 184 358
Kansas City 88.4 90.4 86.4 3-12-0 250 400

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 17 = 2.4            
Vegas Line as of 8:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Sunday, January 3, 2010            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Indianapolis BUFFALO 11.7 10.3 13.1 NL NL
New Orleans CAROLINA 0.8 7.2 4.9 NL NL
CLEVELAND Jacksonville 2.2 -1.6 -1.5 Pk 37   
DALLAS Philadelphia 1.0 0.3 0.5 3    47   
Chicago DETROIT 4.9 5.7 9.1 3    45   
New England HOUSTON 3.7 4.1 1.9 -8    46   
Pittsburgh MIAMI 1.6 -2.7 0.7 NL NL
MINNESOTA New York Giants 5.7 7.4 5.8 8 1/2 48   
NEW YORK JETS Cincinnati 5.1 5.5 3.5 10    35   
San Francisco ST. LOUIS 10.9 12.5 10.5 7 1/2 40 1/2
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 5.8 6.5 7.6 3    41 1/2
Green Bay ARIZONA 0.5 0.9 0.0 3 1/2 43 1/2
DENVER Kansas City 12.3 14.2 18.2 13    38   
Baltimore OAKLAND 15.0 13.2 12.3 10 1/2 38   
SAN DIEGO Washington 17.0 13.0 20.0 3 1/2 38 1/2
Tennessee SEATTLE 11.6 5.8 10.4 4    44   

December 22, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 16: December 25-28, 2009

Week 16 NFL Preview

 

It’s crunch time in the NFL, so there’s no need to begin with some flashy witticism or catch phrase.  Let’s just dig right in with what is important—the playoffs.

In the NFC, New Orleans has clinched a first-round bye and needs only a win or tie or a Viking loss or tie to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  They will be the number one seed.

Minnesota has clinched the North, while Arizona has clinched the West.  Philadelphia clinches the East with one more win and a Dallas loss or tie, or of course, two wins.

The Wildcard race is not much of a nail-biter, as only three teams are left to compete for the two spots.  Green Bay and Dallas, both at 9-5, hold a one-game lead over the Giants.  7-7 Atlanta has been eliminated.

Dallas closes at Washington and at home with Philadelphia.  If the Redskins can upset their rival this weekend, the Cowboys could wind up the odd team out.  The Giants finish at home against Carolina and at Minnesota, and if they split those games, they hold the tiebreaker over Dallas. 

Green Bay should clinch a playoff spot this weekend when they host Seattle.  The Packers finish at Arizona.

The AFC is a little more muddled than the NFC.  Indianapolis is the number one seed and gets homefield advantage through the playoffs.  San Diego has clinched the West.  Cincinnati needs one more win or one Baltimore loss to clinch the North, while New England is one win or one Miami loss away from clinching the East (The Jets cannot win the division).

Denver and Baltimore, both at 8-6, hold a one-game lead over six other teams (Miami, NY Jets, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh.)  Obviously if just two teams finish 9-7, those teams will be the Wildcards.  That’s not going to happen.

Denver closes at Philadelphia and at home against Kansas City.  The won’t lose to the Chiefs, so they will be at least 9-7.  Baltimore has a slightly harder road, as they finish on the road at Pittsburgh and the surging Raiders.  The Ravens should win at least one of these games to finish 9-7.

Miami finishes at home against Houston and Pittsburgh, and these will be playoff eliminators.  The Jets have a difficult closing schedule at Indianapolis and at home with Cincinnati.  We don’t see them finishing 9-7.

Tennessee hosts San Diego on Christmas night and finishes at Seattle.  The Titans and Chargers are the two best current AFC teams after Indy, and it should be a great game.  If the Titans win and then knock off lowly Seattle, they will have done the unthinkable and finished 9-7 after starting 0-6.  Jacksonville has a tough game at New England and finishes at home with Cleveland.  We see 8-8 in their future.

In the end, we believe Baltimore and Denver will hold on to take the two Wildcard spots.

If this scenario holds out, here’s how the first round would look January 9 and 10.

NFC

#6 Dallas at #3 Philadelphia

#5 Green Bay at #4 Arizona

 

AFC

#6 Denver at #3 New England

#5 Baltimore at #4 Cincinnati

 

We would go with Philadelphia, Green Bay, New England, and Baltimore to win those games, setting up this scenario the following week.

NFC

#5 Green Bay at #1 New Orleans

#3 Philadelphia at #2 Minnesota

 

AFC

#5 Baltimore at #1 Indianapolis

#3 New England at #2 San Diego

 

               

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

             
 

 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia  107.0 106.8 107.3 10-4-0 399 286
Dallas 104.3 104.3 106.2 9-5-0 320 250
New York Giants 104.1 102.8 103.5 8-6-0 386 342
Washington 96.0 97.3 94.2 4-10-0 246 296
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 106.3 105.7 106.9 11-3-0 396 269
Green Bay 103.7 104.4 106.1 9-5-0 380 280
Chicago 94.0 95.6 93.4 5-9-0 254 322
Detroit 88.8 88.1 86.1 2-12-0 233 437
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 110.8 109.5 108.6 13-1-0 483 298
Carolina 101.7 99.8 98.8 6-8-0 251 289
Atlanta   101.2 100.7 101.9 7-7-0 312 312
Tampa Bay 92.3 93.1 91.4 2-12-0 214 363
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.1 102.3 103.8 9-5-0 337 282
San Francisco 100.0 101.0 98.1 6-8-0 282 269
Seattle 89.7 92.9 92.0 5-9-0 257 325
St. Louis 86.9 87.9 84.5 1-13-0 159 377
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 107.5 107.3 106.9 9-5-0 365 244
NY Jets 101.8 102.8 102.4 7-7-0 282 221
Miami 100.5 100.7 101.7 7-7-0 316 333
Buffalo 96.3 96.9 95.9 5-9-0 225 288
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 110.7 106.3 107.3 8-6-0 350 225
Pittsburgh 101.9 100.3 101.9 7-7-0 315 280
Cincinnati 101.8 101.4 102.7 9-5-0 288 244
Cleveland 92.6 92.5 91.9 3-11-0 199 349
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 109.9 107.8 109.2 14-0-0 394 248
Tennessee 103.4 101.7 104.3 7-7-0 320 347
Houston   101.1 101.5 101.4 7-7-0 327 286
Jacksonville 95.5 97.9 100.2 7-7-0 266 322
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 107.7 106.2 107.3 11-3-0 389 283
Denver 97.7 101.0 102.4 8-6-0 275 250
Oakland   93.7 92.7 94.0 5-9-0 175 335
Kansas City 87.2 90.8 87.5 3-11-0 240 383

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 16 = 2.5            
Vegas Line as of 12:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Friday, December 25            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
San Diego TENNESSEE 1.8 2.0 0.5 -3    47   
             
Sunday, December 27, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
GREEN BAY Seattle 16.5 14.0 16.6 14    42   
CLEVELAND Oakland 1.4 2.3 0.4 3 1/2 38   
CINCINNATI Kansas City 17.1 13.1 17.7 13 1/2 40 1/2
ATLANTA Buffalo 7.4 6.3 8.5 9    41   
MIAMI Houston 1.9 1.7 2.8 3    45   
NEW YORK GIANTS Carolina 4.9 5.5 7.2 7    42   
NEW ORLEANS Tampa Bay 21.0 18.9 19.7 14    49   
NEW ENGLAND Jacksonville 14.5 11.9 9.2 7 1/2 43 1/2
Baltimore PITTSBURGH 6.3 3.5 2.9 -2 1/2 41   
PHILADELPHIA Denver 11.8 8.3 7.4 7    41 1/2
ARIZONA St. Louis 18.7 16.9 21.8 14    43   
SAN FRANCISCO Detroit 13.7 15.4 14.5 12 1/2 41 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS New York Jets 10.6 7.5 9.3 5    40 1/2
Dallas WASHINGTON 5.8 4.5 9.5 7    42   
             
Monday, December 28, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Minnesota CHICAGO 9.8 7.6 11.0 7    41   

December 15, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 15: December 17-21, 2009

Week 15 NFL Preview

PiRate Picks Go A Perfect 7-0!

 

We’re quite happy here at the PiRate Ratings this week.  Our picks against the spread (available for just $5 a week at www.piratings.webs.com), finished a perfect 7-0 last week bringing our record for the season to 86-48-2, 64.2%.  Our two-week record is 11-1, and we’ve basically used the same strategy both weeks.

This week, the NFL schedule presents the viewer with a basket of lemons.  There are some rather lousy games on tap: Arizona-Detroit, Chicago-Baltimore, Kansas City-Cleveland, Houston-St. Louis, and Seattle-Tampa Bay.  However, to the investor, sometimes, these games become hidden gems.

Throw in the college bowl season’s first offerings, and there are still options to consider this week.

The playoff chase is becoming interesting in the AFC, where the 6-win teams are still very much in the hunt.  In the NFC, the Packers are virtually a shoo-in now as a Wildcard team, but the final spot is still up for grabs.  Dallas holds the upper hand today, but with three very tough finishing games, the Cowboys cannot even be considered the favorite for that spot.  Now, if Dallas can somehow pull off the big upset this weekend in New Orleans, then it may be the end of the chase in the NFC.

Here is the way we at the PiRate Ratings see the playoffs shaping up. 

NFC East

 

Philadelphia is 9-4 and should win 11 games to take the title.

Dallas is 8-5, but could easily lose their last three games.  We see them finishing 9-7.

New York is 7-6 and absolutely must win at Washington Monday night.  If they get by the Redskins, they should beat Carolina, but the finale at Minnesota could be tough unless the Vikings have nothing to play for.  We can see the Giants finishing 9-7.

NFC South

 

The Saints have this race in hand and will have home field advantage for the NFC playoffs.

Atlanta is 6-7 and must win their final three games to have a chance.  All three games left are winnable, but the Falcons have not had much luck with injuries this year.  We believe they will lose at least once more and be eliminated.

NFC North

 

Minnesota has secured the title, and Green Bay will secure a wildcard spot with one more win, which they will get either this week or next.

NFC West

 

Arizona still holds a two-game lead over San Francisco with three to play, so we will pick the Cardinals to repeat as champs.

San Francisco is 6-7.  They have to win at Philadelphia this week, to benefit from closing with Detroit and St. Louis.  We don’t see Mike Singletary’s club winning at Philly this weekend.

AFC East

 

This race is still up for grabs.  New England owns just a one-game lead over Miami and the Jets, and the Patriots have lost all their true away games this year.  With two more away games to play, the Pats could be looking at 9-7, which would open the door.

Miami has topped .500 at 7-6, and they visit Tennessee this week in a death match.  The loser can look to next year.  If the Dolphins prevail, they finish with two winnable home games and could win the division.  We think 9-7 is what Miami fans should expect.  The Dolphins hold the tiebreaker advantage over New England, so we believe they can win the division at 9-7 if the Pats blow it this week at Buffalo.

The Jets are also 7-6.  They host Atlanta in another death match game.  However, they must still go to Indy next week and host Cincinnati in week 17.  It looks bleak for Jets’ fans.

AFC South

 

It’s all about who will finish second in this division, as the only intrigue with the title is whether the Colts can run the table.

Jacksonville is 7-6 and the leader in the clubhouse for the final wildcard spot.  They host Indianapolis this week, and they almost beat the Colts at Indy earlier this year.  They finish at New England and at Cleveland, so the Jags could be looking at 8-8, which would put them out.

Houston is 6-7 and needs too many things to happen to qualify, least of which is winning their final three games at St. Louis, at Miami, and versus New England.  They will be lucky to finish 8-8 for the third straight year.

Tennessee is 6-7 after beginning 0-6.  They also need too many things to happen to be considered a legitimate contender.  If they defeat Miami at home this week, they still must beat San Diego at home next week and win at Seattle.  It looks like 8-8 is their best possibility as well.

AFC North

 

Cincinnati is on the verge of securing the division title, but the Bengals are the most likely division winner to lose to a wildcard in the opening round.

Baltimore is 7-6, and the Ravens are the one team the division winners don’t want to face in the first round.  Baltimore should manhandle the Bears this week to set up a death match game at Pittsburgh.  A season finale at Oakland could be tricky, as the Raiders played spoiler last year in week 17.  Still, we see the Ravens coming through to win finish at least 9-7

Pittsburgh is 6-7 and is fading as fast as the Red Sox used to fade in baseball.  We don’t see them recovering to win three in a row.

AFC West

 

San Diego holds a two-game lead over Denver, and we see no reason to expect the Chargers to fold.

Denver is 8-5 and has a favorable finishing schedule with both Oakland and Kansas City coming to the Mile High City.  You can use pen to put them in as a wildcard.

PiRate Playoff Speculation

 

NFC—Round One

#3 Philadelphia hosts #6 Dallas

#4 Arizona hosts #5 Green Bay

 

Divisional Round

 

#1 New Orleans hosts lower remaining seed

#2 Minnesota hosts higher remaining seed

 

AFC—Round One

 

#3 Cincinnati hosts #6 Baltimore

#4 Miami hosts #5 Denver

 

Divisional Round

 

#1 Indianapolis hosts lower remaining seed

#2 San Diego hosts higher remaining seed

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
               
               
Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 106.3 105.7 106.7 9-4-0 372 273
Dallas 101.7 102.4 103.3 8-5-0 296 233
New York Giants 101.5 100.4 103.5 7-6-0 341 330
Washington 99.6 99.3 96.9 4-9-0 234 251
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 109.4 107.1 108.8 11-2-0 389 243
Green Bay 103.9 104.3 105.9 9-4-0 344 243
Chicago 95.6 96.8 95.0 5-8-0 247 291
Detroit 88.0 88.2 86.3 2-11-0 209 406
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 113.4 109.9 110.8 13-0-0 466 274
Atlanta 99.9 99.8 98.8 6-7-0 302 305
Carolina   98.4 98.2 92.8 5-8-0 225 282
Tampa Bay 89.1 91.8 88.5 1-12-0 190 356
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.9 103.1 105.1 8-5-0 306 258
San Francisco 100.7 101.5 100.5 6-7-0 269 242
Seattle 92.9 95.0 94.7 5-8-0 250 301
St. Louis 85.9 88.9 86.1 1-12-0 146 361
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 107.8 106.6 105.4 8-5-0 348 234
NY Jets 103.1 102.8 104.3 7-6-0 275 211
Miami 100.3 100.8 103.9 7-6-0 292 306
Buffalo 96.0 97.0 96.3 5-8-0 215 271
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 109.1 105.2 106.6 7-6-0 319 218
Pittsburgh 101.7 99.8 99.8 6-7-0 278 244
Cincinnati 101.0 101.0 104.1 9-4-0 264 217
Cleveland 91.5 92.3 92.1 2-11-0 158 315
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.0 109.2 110.7 13-0-0 359 217
Tennessee 103.6 102.4 103.1 6-7-0 293 323
Houston   102.1 102.5 100.4 6-7-0 311 273
Jacksonville 94.4 96.7 98.9 7-6-0 235 287
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 108.5 105.9 107.8 10-3-0 362 259
Denver 100.0 101.7 104.0 8-5-0 256 230
Oakland   91.4 92.2 90.8 4-9-0 155 316
Kansas City 88.3 91.7 88.3 3-10-0 206 342

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 15 = 2.7            
Vegas Line as of 12:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, December 17, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Indianapolis JACKSONVILLE 13.9 9.8 9.1 6 1/2 46   
             
Saturday, December 19, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW ORLEANS Dallas 14.4 10.2 10.2 7    53 1/2
             
Sunday, December 20, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PITTSBURGH Green Bay 0.5 -1.8 -3.4 1    40   
TENNESSEE Miami 6.0 4.3 1.9 3    41 1/2
New England BUFFALO 9.1 6.9 6.4 7    40 1/2
Arizona DETROIT 13.2 12.2 16.1 10 1/2 47   
PHILADELPHIA San Francisco 8.3 6.9 8.9 9    44 1/2
NEW YORK JETS Atlanta 5.9 5.7 8.2 NL NL
BALTIMORE Chicago 16.2 11.1 14.3 10    40 1/2
Cleveland KANSAS CITY 0.5 -2.1 1.1 -2    36 1/2
Houston ST. LOUIS 13.5 10.9 11.6 9 1/2 43   
SAN DIEGO Cincinnati 10.2 7.6 6.4 6 1/2 44   
DENVER Oakland 11.3 12.2 15.9 14    37   
SEATTLE Tampa Bay 6.5 5.9 8.9 7    39 1/2
Minnesota CAROLINA 8.3 6.2 13.3 7    43   
             
Monday, December 21, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
WASHINGTON New York Giants 0.8 1.6 -3.9 -3    43   

December 8, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 13: December 10-14, 2009

NFL Week 14 PiRate Ratings

Eight Games With Must-win Repercussions

 

 

Week 14 of the 2009 NFL season finds half of all games involving a team that faces a must-win situation.  If these must-win teams lose this week, most of them will be out of the playoff race barring a miracle.  One of these games involves both teams facing a must-win situation, so that is the PiRate Game of the Week. 

Those two teams are Miami and Jacksonville.  The Jaguars are in the thick of the playoff race, and yet they cannot sell out the Gator Bowl.  It has led to rumors that the franchise is not long for northern Florida.  Does the name Los Angeles Jaguars or even Toronto Jaguars have a nice ring to it? 

Florida Governor Charles Crist has even spoken up about the situation in Jacksonville.  He recommends the Jags to draft Tim Tebow with their first pick in the 2010 draft.  That would definitely sell some tickets, but it won’t help the Jags win more games.  This is a team that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.  If they cannot sell out for a playoff contender, it’s time to move this franchise elsewhere.

The Dolphins, along with the Jets, trail New England by just one game, and the Patriots could easily finish as weak as 9-7.  The Jets play at Tampa Bay this week, so the Dolphins know this is a pivotal game.

Other teams that find themselves in a must-win situation are Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Dallas, The New York Giants, and San Francisco.  The Giants host Philadelphia, and the Eagles are almost in a must-win situation, but they can lose this game and still win the division.  Dallas hosts San Diego, and a Cowboys loss could send the Cowboys on a long slide to third place in the NFC East.  After this week, Dallas goes to New Orleans and Washington and hosts Philadelphia to end the season.  A Cowboys loss this week could set the ball in motion for an 8-8 record.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
               
               
NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia  105.6 105.6 105.5 8-4-0 327 235
NY Giants 102.2 100.9 103.3 7-5-0 303 285
Dallas 101.8 102.6 102.9 8-4-0 279 213
Washington 97.9 98.2 95.9 3-9-0 200 238
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 108.4 106.2 108.0 10-2-0 359 233
Green Bay 103.5 104.0 105.4 8-4-0 323 229
Chicago 96.0 97.1 95.3 5-7-0 233 270
Detroit 89.8 89.5 88.3 2-10-0 206 358
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.4 110.5 111.8 12-0-0 440 251
Atlanta 98.9 98.9 99.8 6-6-0 279 279
Carolina   97.9 98.1 95.9 5-7-0 215 262
Tampa Bay 91.4 92.7 90.5 1-11-0 187 330
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 105.7 104.8 105.4 8-4-0 297 234
San Francisco 98.9 99.8 98.2 5-7-0 245 233
Seattle 95.0 96.7 96.2 5-7-0 243 267
St. Louis 87.7 90.4 86.9 1-11-0 139 314
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 108.3 106.4 105.0 7-5-0 328 224
NY Jets 100.8 101.4 101.9 6-6-0 249 208
Miami 99.6 100.4 102.1 6-6-0 278 296
Buffalo 95.8 96.5 95.7 4-8-0 199 261
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 107.3 104.0 103.7 6-6-0 271 215
Pittsburgh 103.5 101.8 101.9 6-6-0 272 231
Cincinnati 102.0 102.0 104.1 9-3-0 254 187
Cleveland 89.7 90.9 91.0 1-11-0 145 309
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.3 108.5 110.8 12-0-0 331 201
Tennessee 101.8 100.7 100.2 5-7-0 246 316
Houston   100.0 100.8 99.2 5-7-0 277 266
Jacksonville 95.1 96.6 99.8 7-5-0 225 273
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 108.4 105.7 107.9 9-3-0 342 242
Denver 99.7 102.2 104.2 8-4-0 240 202
Oakland   93.1 93.8 92.8 4-8-0 142 282
Kansas City 88.5 91.8 90.3 3-9-0 196 326

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 14 = 2.7            
Vegas Line as of 5:00PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, December 10, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Pittsburgh CLEVELAND 11.1 8.2 8.2 10    34   
             
Sunday, December 13, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
INDIANAPOLIS Denver 14.3 9.0 9.3 7    44   
MINNESOTA Cincinnati 9.1 6.9 6.6 6 1/2 43   
New York Jets TAMPA BAY 12.1 11.4 14.1 3 1/2 37   
Buffalo KANSAS CITY 4.6 2.0 2.7 Pk 37   
Green Bay CHICAGO 4.8 4.2 7.4 3    41   
New Orleans ATLANTA 12.8 8.9 9.3 9 1/2 51   
BALTIMORE Detroit 20.2 17.2 18.1 13    40   
Miami JACKSONVILLE 1.8 1.1 -0.4 -3    43 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Carolina 13.1 11.0 11.8 13 1/2 43 1/2
HOUSTON Seattle 7.7 6.8 5.7 6 1/2 44 1/2
TENNESSEE St. Louis 16.8 13.0 16.0 13 1/2 41   
Washington OAKLAND 2.1 1.7 0.4 1    37 1/2
San Diego DALLAS 3.9 0.4 2.3 -3    48 1/2
Philadelphia NEW YORK GIANTS 0.7 2.0 -0.5 -1    44 1/2
             
Monday, December 14, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Arizona SAN FRANCISCO 4.1 2.3 4.5 3 1/2 44 1/2

December 1, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: December 3-7, 2009

Week 13 NFL Preview

 

Will week 13 be unlucky for an undefeated team?  New Orleans is coming off an emotional Monday night win over New England.  The Saints have what looks like a relatively easy game at Washington, but this could be a much closer game than expected.

11-0 Indianapolis has clinched the AFC South Division and owns a three game lead over Cincinnati and San Diego for home field advantage.  They face the suddenly streaking Tennessee Titans, winners of five games in a row after beginning the year 0-6.  Tennessee basically has to run the table to earn an improbable and virtually impossible playoff spot.

NFL football returns to the Rogers Centre in Toronto Thursday night when the Bills and the Jets hook up.  It should be a fun one to watch for the folks in Ontario, and a sellout could bolster the chances for North America’s fifth largest city obtaining an NFL franchise one day.

The must-win teams this week are: The Jets against Buffalo; Pittsburgh against Oakland (uncertainty at QB for the Steelers); Houston and Jacksonville; Tennessee against Indianapolis; Atlanta and Philadelphia; San Francisco against Seattle; The Giants against Dallas; and Green Bay and Baltimore.

PiRate NFL Playoff Speculation

 

In the NFC, New Orleans and Minnesota will be the top two seeds and get a bye.  The third and fourth seeds will be Dallas and Arizona.  We believe the Giants, Falcons, Packers,  and Eagles could all finish 9-7.  If the 49ers win this week at Seattle, they too could win nine games.  It’s a crapshoot to try to determine the tiebreakers with five weeks to go, but we’ll pencil in Green Bay and Philadelphia into those slots.

In the AFC, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, San Diego, and New England have all but wrapped up division titles.  Denver’s schedule gives them an excellent opportunity to get to 10 wins.  Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Jacksonville, the New York Jets, and even Tennessee all have shots at 9-7 records.  Again, picking one of these teams to win all the tiebreakers is more than we can do, so we’ll stick with Baltimore getting the last spot for now.

Opening Week

NFC

#3 Dallas vs. #6 Philadelphia

#4 Arizona vs. #5 Green Bay

 

AFC

#3 Cincinnati vs. #6 Baltimore

#4 New England vs. #5 Denver

 

Byes

NFC

#1 New Orleans

#2 Minnesota

 

AFC

#1 Indianapolis

#2 San Diego

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

               
               
 

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas  102.6 103.7 105.4 8-3-0 255 182
Philadelphia  102.4 103.6 103.5 7-4-0 293 228
NY Giants 101.4 100.7 101.5 6-5-0 272 261
Washington  96.1 96.7 94.9 3-8-0 170 205
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 110.7 107.5 109.6 10-1-0 342 203
Green Bay 102.4 103.1 104.6 7-4-0 296 215
Chicago 96.4 97.6 95.7 4-7-0 216 261
Detroit 89.2 89.0 85.9 2-9-0 193 335
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 116.2 111.0 112.0 11-0-0 407 221
Atlanta 102.1 101.2 101.8 6-5-0 272 245
Carolina   97.8 97.8 96.6 4-7-0 199 256
Tampa Bay 91.5 93.1 91.4 1-10-0 181 314
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.4 103.0 104.2 7-4-0 267 217
San Francisco 99.9 100.2 99.3 5-6-0 228 213
Seattle 94.0 95.7 94.9 4-7-0 223 250
St. Louis 87.3 90.3 88.8 1-10-0 130 297
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 109.9 107.5 107.0 7-4-0 307 202
NY Jets 100.6 101.0 100.8 5-6-0 230 195
Miami 98.0 99.8 97.7 5-6-0 256 275
Buffalo 96.0 96.6 97.2 4-7-0 186 242
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 108.4 105.5 106.9 6-5-0 257 188
Pittsburgh 105.9 103.8 104.2 6-5-0 248 204
Cincinnati 102.6 102.8 104.0 8-3-0 231 174
Cleveland 89.1 90.2 87.4 1-10-0 122 279
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.4 108.3 109.2 11-0-0 304 184
Houston 102.1 101.9 101.3 5-6-0 259 243
Tennessee 101.7 100.7 102.8 5-6-0 229 289
Jacksonville 93.0 95.8 96.5 6-5-0 202 255
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 109.0 106.1 107.7 8-3-0 312 219
Denver 97.4 100.1 102.4 7-4-0 196 189
Kansas City 90.8 93.8 92.6 3-8-0 183 282
Oakland 90.7 91.9 92.2 3-8-0 115 258

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 13 = 2.6            
Vegas Line as of 6:00PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, December 3, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New York Jets Buffalo (Toronto) 4.6 4.4 3.6 3    36 1/2
             
Sunday, December 6, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Denver KANSAS CITY 4.0 3.7 7.2 4 1/2 38   
PITTSBURGH Oakland 17.8 14.5 14.6 NL NL
Houston JACKSONVILLE 6.5 3.5 2.2 Pk 46 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 12.3 10.2 9.0 6 1/2 47   
ATLANTA Philadelphia 2.3 0.2 0.9 -6    44   
CINCINNATI Detroit 16.0 16.4 20.7 12 1/2 42 1/2
New Orleans WASHINGTON 17.5 11.7 14.5 9 1/2 47 1/2
CAROLINA Tampa Bay 8.9 7.3 7.8 6    40   
CHICAGO St. Louis 11.7 9.9 9.5 9 1/2 40 1/2
San Diego CLEVELAND 17.3 13.3 17.7 13    43   
San Francisco SEATTLE 3.3 1.9 1.8 Pk 41 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Dallas 1.4 -0.4 -1.3 -3    45 1/2
New England MIAMI 9.3 5.1 6.7 5    46 1/2
Minnesota ARIZONA 4.7 1.9 2.8 NL NL
             
Monday, December 7, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Baltimore GREEN BAY 3.4 -0.2 -0.3 3 1/2 43   

 

For College and NFL Picks Against the Spread, go to:

 

www.piratings.webs.com

 

November 24, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: November 26-30, 2009

Some Festive Games and Some Turkeys

We’ve arrived at Thanksgiving week, and the NFL season has become one of haves, have-nots, and mediocre teams.  The haves (New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, and New England) figure to be the eight teams playing in the second round of the NFL playoffs. 

 The have-nots (Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Washington, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, and Buffalo) have nothing to play for at this point.  To wager on these teams, one must find a reason to believe these teams’ players will have a reason to give everything they’ve got.

 The 15 mediocre teams remaining are the ones competing for the final four playoff berths.  These are the teams that must be watched carefully as the stretch drive begins.  Be careful playing against one of these teams when they are playing a have or have-not.  They can be dangerous.

 This week presents some interesting contests.  On Thanksgiving night, the Denver-New York Giants game features two of the aforementioned mediocre teams.  A match-up of two mediocre teams in essence becomes a playoff elimination game.  The loser of this game has very little chance of recovering to make the playoffs this year.

 Indianapolis plays at Houston, and the Texans find their backs up against the wall.  After losing a close Monday night game, Houston is in a must-win position.

 Arizona plays at Tennessee, and if the Titans win this one to get to 5-6, they would have to be considered a dark horse candidate to finish 9-7 and sneak in as the final AFC Playoff team.  No NFL team has ever started a season at 0-6 and finished 8-8 must less 9-7.  The 1970 Cincinnati Bengals began the season 1-6 and won seven games in a row to win the AFC Central Division at 8-6.

 Baltimore and Pittsburgh face off in a blood and guts battle that could easily be a playoff elimination game.

 The Monday night game is the best MNF game of the year.  New England plays at New Orleans.  It could easily be a preview of the Super Bowl.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

 

           

 

             

 

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Giants 103.6 102.6 103.8 6-4-0 266 235
Philadelphia  103.2 104.2 103.4 6-4-0 266 204
Dallas  102.1 103.8 103.1 7-3-0 231 175
Washington  95.3 95.7 95.3 3-7-0 146 178
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 109.2 106.7 108.7 9-1-0 306 193
Green Bay 101.1 102.4 103.2 6-4-0 262 203
Chicago 97.9 98.4 97.6 4-6-0 206 225
Detroit 90.4 89.1 88.2 2-8-0 181 301
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.1 110.1 111.0 10-0-0 369 204
Atlanta 103.1 102.3 101.8 5-5-0 252 228
Carolina   99.0 98.4 99.0 4-6-0 193 239
Tampa Bay 90.5 91.9 87.0 1-9-0 164 294
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 104.0 103.4 104.6 7-3-0 250 197
San Francisco 98.7 99.8 99.8 4-6-0 208 210
Seattle 93.3 95.3 93.1 3-7-0 196 233
St. Louis 88.0 91.1 91.2 1-9-0 113 270
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 112.0 109.1 108.6 7-3-0 290 164
Miami 100.1 101.4 101.6 5-5-0 242 244
NY Jets 99.4 100.7 100.2 4-6-0 213 189
Buffalo 93.9 94.1 92.9 3-7-0 155 228
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 108.8 105.7 104.8 5-5-0 237 171
Pittsburgh 105.5 103.9 104.4 6-4-0 231 184
Cincinnati 103.4 103.8 104.6 7-3-0 215 167
Cleveland 88.2 89.3 87.2 1-9-0 115 263
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.1 108.6 108.9 10-0-0 269 157
Houston 102.4 102.0 101.6 5-5-0 232 208
Tennessee 101.0 100.1 101.6 4-6-0 209 272
Jacksonville 94.0 96.4 100.0 6-4-0 199 235
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 107.6 105.2 106.3 7-3-0 269 205
Denver 95.1 98.3 98.8 6-4-0 170 183
Kansas City 92.2 94.6 94.5 3-7-0 169 239
Oakland 91.1 91.5 93.1 3-7-0 108 234

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 12 = 2.7            
Vegas Line as of 6:00PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, November 26, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Green Bay DETROIT 8.0 10.6 12.3 11    47 1/2
DALLAS Oakland 13.7 15.0 12.7 13 1/2 40   
DENVER New York Giants 5.8 1.6 2.3 -7    42   
             
Sunday, November 29, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Indianapolis HOUSTON 6.0 3.9 4.6 3    48   
CINCINNATI Cleveland 17.9 17.2 20.1 14    38 1/2
MINNESOTA Chicago 14.0 11.0 13.8 10 1/2 46 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Washington 10.6 11.2 10.8 9 1/2 40 1/2
Miami BUFFALO 3.5 4.6 6.0 3    39 1/2
Arizona TENNESSEE 0.3 0.6 0.3 2 1/2 46 1/2
Seattle ST. LOUIS 2.6 1.1 -0.8 3    42 1/2
ATLANTA Tampa Bay 15.3 13.1 17.5 12 1/2 46   
NEW YORK JETS Carolina 3.1 5.0 3.9 3    41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Jacksonville 7.4 6.1 2.5 3    41 1/2
SAN DIEGO Kansas City 18.1 13.3 15.5 13 1/2 45   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.0 4.5 3.1 2 1/2 39 1/2
             
Monday, November 30, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW ORLEANS New England 4.8 3.7 5.1 3    56 1/2

 

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