NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 2: September 15-19,2016

Few Surprises In Week One

As NFL seasons go, week one was a rather tame beginning to the new season.  Because nothing is ever certain, there were a couple of eye-openers, but overall when compared to years past, this was a so-so beginning to the year.

The biggest news to come out of Week One was the across the board drop in TV ratings.  According to reports in Forbes Magazine, Thursday night’s Broncos-Panthers game on NBC was off 8%.  The Sunday afternoon games saw a ratings drop of 13%, and the Sunday night game was off 18% in the most important age group of 18-49 year olds.  We won’t pretend to have the answers, but we have heard many opinions about this today including:

1. Protests of the National Anthem
2. Americans have given up cable and satellite dish subscriptions in record numbers
3. The 2016 Presidential Election is more entertaining to follow
4. Americans are souring on the concussion issue
5. The game has become a one-dimensional game where all 32 teams play the same way

Or, it could just be that this past weekend was a really nice one to be outside enjoying nature, shopping malls, visiting relatives, or anything else.  Maybe, the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Dodgers are contending for the Major League Playoffs in September, and more sports fans in the three largest markets were watching baseball.  The Cubs and Jake Arrieta were on ESPN Sunday night.

We’ll see if the ratings return to normalcy in Week Two.  There are some really interesting contests this week, so let’s take a look at a reason to watch if you can get these games.

Jets at Bills

One of these teams is going to be 0-2, facing a mountain to conquer to get into the playoffs.  The odds for finishing 9-7 or better after an 0-2 start since 2000 is something like 5-7%, and when you consider that the Patriots are going to win double digit games, we are talking about a Wildcard prospect.  The loser of this game can almost count itself out in the 2016 playoff race rather quickly, as both teams must still play New England twice.  If Buffalo loses, the Ryan brothers may wish to try going over Niagara Falls in a barrel made for two.

 

49ers at Panthers

The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against San Francisco this week.  They played a late Monday night game, while Carolina played last Thursday night.  They must travel all the way across the country to face a mad Panthers’ team that felt like they blew their opener on the road.  Carolina is a good touchdown better at home than they are on the road, while San Francisco is young and still learning Chip Kelly’s philosophy on the fly.  If the 49ers can pull off a monumental upset, or even if they continue to play top notch defense and lose a close game, the folks in Phoenix and Seattle will certainly take notice, and the folks in the Bay Area will become fanatical once again.  If Carolina loses, then the South race becomes wide open.

 

Titans at Lions

The way the Lions came back in the closing seconds to top the Colts further reinforces our preseason beliefs that this team is capable of challenging for a playoff spot.  Detroit has the easiest path to a 2-0 record as the Titans continue to bring up the rear in the NFL.  Their archaic offensive playing style does not win in the NFL in the 21st Century, as football metrics show the teams that pass the ball and defend the pass the best are the teams that win big.  Running games may look like the way to go, but in most instances, rushing statistics are inflated by teams running the ball to eat the clock once their passing game and pass defense has secured a winnable lead.  The Titans have issues against the pass as well, while Detroit can put up 300 passing yards against almost any team. Expect a lopsided win for the home team in Motown.

 

Chiefs at Texans

One of these two teams will be 2-0 on Sunday, but 2-0 teams are not as sure of a lock at making the playoffs than 0-2 teams are at not making it.  Still, 2-0 teams make the playoffs more than 60% of the time.  Houston might have closer to an 80% chance of making the playoffs if the Texans win this game and the Colts lose.  They could conceivably start the year with a two-game cushion on the entire division.  Kansas City eeked out an overtime comeback win in week one, and the Chiefs have been a slow-starter in recent years.  Should KC win this game, then watch out AFC fans–if the road to the Super Bowl runs through Arrowhead Stadium, the home field advantage in Kansas City in January is about as strong as the home field advantage at Bryant Denny Stadium in November.

 

Saints at Giants

Sean Payton’s magic may be going the way of former Giants head man Tom Coughlin.  The Saints can still move the ball and score points, but their defense has never been the same since Bountygate.  As long as Eli Manning has Odell Beckham, and now he has Victor Cruz, the Giants can put points on the board with anybody.  Because the Giants also have a halfway decent defense, a win this week makes the NFC East look very winnable.  The Saints need to win to keep even with Carolina and to possibly stay within a game of the surprising Bucs.

 

Bengals at Steelers

This may be the most important rivalry game between these teams since Terry Bradshaw and Ken Anderson faced off against each other back in the 1970’s, and Paul Brown played human chess against Chuck Noll.  Quite frankly, these two teams could be contending for the top won-loss record in the AFC, and the fans of both teams understand how a rivalry should be played.

 

Buccaneers at Cardinals

Cardinals’ GM Steve Keim was fully in his rights to lash out against the poor performance of his team Sunday night, but doing it in such a public manner might prove to be counterproductive in the 21st Century.  This isn’t 1978 when George Steinbrenner’s media monologues could light a fire under his team.  What’s Keim going to do next–fire Bruce Arians?  Who would be his Bob Lemon?  Tampa Bay meanwhile looked like a solid team in an opener against Atlanta.  The game should be interesting even if the extracurricular activities have no effect at all.

 

Seahawks at Rams

Los Angeles is not that inept; last night’s debacle cannot be the norm for the Rams.  Or could it?  We’re talking about a team of nomads with no real home just yet.  They have had to sojourn all over the LA area this summer, and they looked like a team that had been wandering in the desert for 40 years with no help from the Great Master.  Jeff Fisher is not Moses.  Pete Carroll was once treated like Moses in this town, and he will return to play a game in the great coliseum where he led the USC Trojans to victory almost every time in that venue.  This will be the first NFL regular season game in the LA Coliseum since December of 1979.  There’s even been a Dodgers game in this facility since the Rams last played here.

 

Falcons at Raiders

When is the last time Oakland began the year 2-0?  It was 2002, when the Raiders last played in the Super Bowl.  This is a team that is riding sky high after coming from behind to win in New Orleans Sunday afternoon.  Coach Jack Del Rio showed confidence in his team by going for two to either win or lose the game rather than take the almost automatic tie and go to overtime.  When Oakland converted, it boosted the morale and confidence in the Silver and Black.  It was probably worth an extra 3 to 5 points to their team for the near future.  Meanwhile, the Falcons began the season with the same belief, but that enthusiasm and confidence crash and burned after losing to Tampa Bay.  This could be another 0-2 team already looking at 2017 rather than 2016 if Atlanta loses this week.

 

Packers at Vikings

What better way to end Sunday night than to watch the great white north rivalry?  Unless your name is Ole, Lena, or Sven, you may not realize how great a rivalry this is.  Even when one team is down and the other is strong, this game tends to be quite worthwhile to view.  Because both teams currently are rather strong, this becomes the top game of the night, or maybe the co-top game with the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game.  This year, this game takes on more importance, because most likely the Lions will already be 2-0 when the rivals kick off.

 

Here are this week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
N. Y. Jets	103.5	101.1	104.7	103.1	61	42
New England	102.0	99.4	102.5	101.3	61	40
Buffalo	98.9	99.9	99.0	99.3	58	41
Miami	95.9	97.2	95.8	96.3	58	38
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Cincinnati	107.5	106.8	108.4	107.6	65	43
Pittsburgh	105.2	104.9	106.5	105.5	65	41
Baltimore	98.9	101.1	98.6	99.5	62	38
Cleveland	90.7	91.7	90.1	90.8	58	33
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Houston	101.1	102.6	101.1	101.6	64	38
Indianapolis	97.3	99.4	96.1	97.6	62	36
Jacksonville	97.2	98.9	96.5	97.5	59	39
Tennessee	92.2	94.4	91.6	92.7	54	39
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Denver	105.9	102.3	106.1	104.7	62	43
Kansas City	102.2	101.6	103.2	102.3	63	39
Oakland	98.9	99.5	99.0	99.1	63	36
San Diego	97.8	98.9	97.6	98.1	63	35
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Washington	98.5	99.3	98.3	98.7	61	38
N.Y. Giants	98.6	97.7	98.3	98.2	62	36
Philadelphia	99.4	96.3	98.7	98.1	61	37
Dallas	93.1	93.4	92.5	93.0	54	39
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Green Bay	104.7	104.0	104.7	104.5	65	40
Minnesota	102.6	101.6	103.1	102.4	60	42
Detroit	100.9	100.5	100.6	100.7	64	37
Chicago	97.0	95.0	96.8	96.3	56	40
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Carolina	109.2	107.9	110.2	109.1	65	44
New Orleans	99.2	101.8	98.5	99.8	64	36
Tampa Bay	97.5	98.7	96.6	97.6	60	38
Atlanta	95.4	98.4	95.1	96.3	61	35
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Arizona	108.4	105.6	109.4	107.8	68	40
Seattle	108.1	104.7	109.1	107.3	64	43
Los Angeles	96.5	98.3	95.7	96.9	56	41
San Francisco	95.8	97.1	95.8	96.2	56	40

Here are this week’s spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Score
Buffalo	New York Jets	-2.6	0.8	-3.7	17-19
Carolina	San Francisco	17.4	14.8	18.4	27-10
Cleveland	Baltimore	-5.7	-6.9	-6.0	21-27
Detroit	Tennessee	11.7	9.1	12.0	28-17
Houston	Kansas City	1.9	4.0	0.9	27-24
New England	Miami	9.1	5.2	9.7	24-16
New York Giants	New Orleans	2.4	-1.1	2.8	28-27
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	0.2	0.6	0.6	24-23
Washington	Dallas	8.4	8.9	8.8	23-14
Arizona	Tampa Bay	13.9	9.9	15.8	33-20
Los Angeles	Seattle	-8.1	-2.9	-9.9	13-20
Denver	Indianapolis	11.6	5.9	13.0	27-17
Oakland	Atlanta	6.5	4.1	6.9	30-24
San Diego	Jacksonville	3.6	3.0	4.1	27-24
Minnesota	Green Bay	-0.1	-0.4	0.4	22-23
Chicago	Philadelphia	0.1	1.2	0.6	21-20

 

 

 

 

2015 NFC East Preview

2014–Dallas Cowboys

2013–Philadelphia Eagles

2012–Washington Redskins

2011–New York Giants

The NFC East is the only division where all four teams have won a division title in the last four years.  Three of the four have legitimate shots to win it in 2015, not because they are all great.  This division could easily go to a 9-7 team, and it would not surprise us one bit if three teams go 9-7.

Dallas lost in the second round of the playoffs to Green Bay in Lambeau Field at the end of the game last year.  If you are over 55, you can remember when this happened the first go around.  That happened in 1967, and then in 1968, Dallas had what many believe to be their best team ever, but the Cowboys were blown out in the first round of the playoffs to the Browns and did not make it to the Super Bowl for two more years after that.  History could repeat itself this year.  The Cowboys could get back to the playoffs and lose in the first game, because their offense figures to be too one dimensional.  Tony Romo had some pressure taken off having the top runner in the league last year, but now he has an unproven Joseph Randle or an over-the-hill Darren McFadden in the backfield.  The Cowboys’ defense is still top-rate, but we do not expect Dallas to score 467 points again this year.

 

New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin may be at the end of the line.  The Giants went 6-10 last year, and it may take a record reversal to save Coughlin’s job.  Eli Manning to Odell Beckham became a big deal every Sunday in 2014, and with Reuben Randle on the other side, the Giants might move the ball through the air like nobody else in the NFC.  The running game will not shine, but with Rashad Jennings and Andre Jennings returning and adding Shane Vereen to the roster, the Giants will convert short yardage situations into first downs well enough to maintain possession of the ball.  A weak front seven, something Coughlin’s best teams always had, may be the liability that keeps New York from getting back to the top of the division.

 

Philadelphia made a lot of changes in the off-season sending starting quarterback Nick Foles to the Rams for Sam Bradford and then continuing with the acquisition of DeMarco Murray, he of the 1,845 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns for Dallas last year.  But, then the Eagles continued to change personnel like a team bent on starting over from scratch.  Stars Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Trent Cole departed.   Nate Allen, Bradley Fisher, Cary Williams, and Casey Matthews joine Cole to create five new starters on defense.  It will be an interesting season in the City of Brotherly Boos, and we think the Eagles will get their share from the hometown fans when they figure to come up short once again.

 

The Jay Gruden era in the nation’s capital may last just two years, or even less if the Washington Redskins don’t improve at the start of the 2015 season.  The schedule actually helps the Redskins this season, as the first seven games prior to their bye week give them chances to win four or five times.  After the bye, wins may be hard to come by.  Robert Griffin III begins the regular season recuperating from a concussion, and Alfred Morris is still around.  The defense figures to be a little better with the addition of Dashon Goldson, but the Redskins figure to be looking up at the other three teams in the division.

 

DALLAS COWBOYS

Cowboys Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Dez Bryant
WR	Terrance Williams
WR	Cole Beasely
TE	Jason Whitten
LT	Tyron Smith
LG	Ronald Leary
C	Travis Frederick
RG	Zach Martin
RT	Doug Free
QB	Tony Romo
HB	Joseph Randle
FB	Tyler Clutts
Defense
DE	DeMarcus Lawrence
NT	Nick Hayden
DT	Tyrone Crawford
DE	Jeremy Mincey/Greg Hardy
LB	Kyle Wilber
LB	Anthony Hitchens
LB	Sean Lee
CB	Brandon Carr
S	J. J. Wilcox
S	Barry Church
CB	Morris Claiborne
N5	Byron Jones
Special
Kicker	Dan Bailey
Punter	Chris Jones
KR	Lance Dunbar
PR	Cole Beasely

Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach	Jason Garrett
Off. Coordinator	Scott Linehan
Def. Coordinator	Rod Marinelli
2014 W-L-T	12-4-0
Pts	29.2
Opp	22.0
Ratings
PiRate	106.9
Mean	105.6
Bias	107.6
Average	106.7
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	A+
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C-
Special Teams	B
Coaching + Intangibles	B
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	3
Overall Rank	5
Postseason	Yes

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Odell Beckham, Jr.
WR	Rueben Randle
WR	Victor Cruz
TE	Larry Donnell
LT	Ereck Flowers
LG	Justin Pugh
C	Weston Richburg
RG	Geoff Schwartz
RT	Marshall Newhouse
QB	Eli Manning
HB	Rashad Jennings
FB	Henry Hynoski

New York Giants
Head Coach	Tom Coughlin
Off. Coordinator	Ben McAdoo
Def. Coordinator	Steve Spagnolo
2014 W-L-T	6-10-0
Pts	23.8
Opp	25.0
Ratings
PiRate	99.9
Mean	99.7
Bias	100.4
Average	100.0
Grades
Running	C
Passing	A-
Vs. Run	C-
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	A-
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	8
Overall Rank	16
Postseason	No

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Eagles Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Jordan Matthews
WR	Nelson Agholor
WR	Riley Cooper
TE	Zach Ertz
LT	Jason Peters
LG	Allen Barbre
C	Jason Kelce
RG	Andrew Gardner
RT	Lane Johnson
QB	Sam Bradford
HB	DeMarco Murray
FB	(NONE)
Defense
DE	Fletcher Cox
DT	Bennie Logan
DE	Cedric Thornton
LB	Connor Barwin
LB	Mychal Kendricks
LB	Kiko Alonso
LB	Brandon Graham
CB	Nolan Carroll
S	Malcolm Jenkins
S	Walter Thurmond
CB	Byron Maxwell
N5	Eric Rowe
Special
Kicker	Cody Parkey
Punter	Donnie Jones
KR	Josh Huff
PR	Darren Sproles

Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach	Chip Kelly
Off. Coordinator	Pat Shurmur
Def. Coordinator	Bill Davis
2014 W-L-T	10-6-0
Pts	29.7
Opp	25.0
Ratings
PiRate	104.7
Mean	103.9
Bias	105.2
Average	104.6
Grades
Running	A
Passing	B
Vs. Run	A
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	B+
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	4
Overall Rank	8
Postseason	Yes

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Redskins Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	DeSean Jackson
WR	Pierre Garcon
WR	Andre Roberts
TE	Jordan Reed
LT	Trent Williams
LG	Shawn Lauvao
C	Kory Lichtensteiger
RG	Brandon Scherff
RT	Morgan Moses
QB	Robert Griffin III
HB	Alfred Morris
FB	Darrel Young
Defense
DE	Stephen Paea
NT	Terrance Knighton
DE	Jason Hatcher
LB	Ryan Kerrigan
LB	Keenan Robinson
LB	Perry Riley
LB	Trent Murphy
CB	DeAngelo Hall
S	Duke Ihenacho
S	Dashon Golden
CB	Chris Culliver
N5	Bashaud Breeland
Special
Kicker	Kai Forbath
Punter	Tress Way
KR	Andre Roberts
PR	Andre Roberts

Washington Redskins
Head Coach	Jay Gruden
Off. Coordinator	Sean McVay
Def. Coordinator	Joe Barry
2014 W-L-T	4-12-0
Pts	18.8
Opp	27.4
Ratings
PiRate	93.2
Mean	92.1
Bias	92.5
Average	92.6
Grades
Running	C+
Passing	C-
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	D
Predicted W-L	6-10-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	15
Overall Rank	29
Postseason	No

 

2013 NFC East Preview

2013 N F C East Preview

The NFC East Division promises to be one of the most exciting divisional races this year, as the top team may come back to the pack and the bottom team may be vastly improved.  Due to the handicapped scheduling, Washington must face Atlanta and San Francisco in its extra two games, while Philadelphia gets Tampa Bay and Arizona.

 

We believe this is the last year where the New York Giants have enough talent to challenge for another Super Bowl run.  Eli Manning has enough parts left to guide the Giants back to the top of the division, even if the team is starting to age and lose key parts.  9-7 may be good enough to get into the playoffs in this balanced division, but the Giants schedule includes games against Carolina and Seattle.  They could lose both, but the key is to go 4-2 in divisional play.

 

Dallas and Washington might split 100 games against each other 50 to 50.  These teams have definite assets and liabilities that other teams can exploit or be exploited by.  They look like 8-8 teams to us.  Dallas faces New Orleans and St. Louis, and they could win both, split, or lose both.  If they happen to win both, then Jerryworld could be happy after 17 weeks.

 

Philadelphia is a big wildcard this year.  Can Chip Kelly’s college offense resurrect the Eagles?  As long as Michael Vick stays healthy, this offense will work in the NFL.  However, we don’t believe Vick can start 16 games without getting banged up.  Thus, we expect the Eagles to be better at the start of the season than at the end.  We could see Philly starting 5-5 and being right there in the playoff hunt going into their bye week.  If Vick is still healthy, then the Eagles could still have a chance.  If he is banged up, then the last six games could be ugly.  A 5-5 start could easily become a 1-5 ending for a 6-10 record.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC East

East	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Dallas Cowboys	Dark Blue	0	33	71
	Metallic Silver Blue	130	138	135
	White	255	255	255
New York Giants	Dark Blue	11	34	101
	Red	167	25	48
	White	255	255	255
Philadelphia Eagles	Midnight Green	0	73	83
	Black	17	28	36
	Metallic Silver	130	138	135
Washington Redskins	Burgundy	130	36	51
	Gold	255	182	18
	White	255	255	255

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp New York Giants 106.6 105.8 105.2 9-7-0 429 344 Washington Redskins 102.7 103.8 104.6 10-6-0 436 388 Dallas Cowboys 99.2 99.3 99.4 8-8-0 376 400 Philadelphia Eagles 91.7 90.8 90.2 4-12-0 280 444

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New York Giants	101.7	102.0	100.8
Dallas Cowboys	100.3	102.1	100.2
Washington Redskins	100.0	99.6	99.3
Philadelphia Eagles	94.4	95.1	94.0

 

PiRate Previews

 

Team	Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach	Jason Garrett
O-Coord.	Bill Callahan
D-Coord.	Monte Kiffin
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Tony Romo
Running Back	DeMarco Murray
Wide Receiver	Dez Bryant
Wide Receiver	Miles Austin
Wide Receiver	Terrance Williams
Tight End	Jason Witten
Left Tackle	Tyron Smith
Left Guard	Nate Livings
Center	Travis Frederick
Right Guard	Mackenzy Bernadeau
Right Tackle	Doug Free
	Defense
Left End	Anthony Spencer
Left Tackle	Jason Hatcher
Right Tackle	Sean Lissemore
Right End	DeMarcus Ware
Sam LB	Justin Durant
Mike LB	Sean Lee
Will LB	Bruce Carter
Left CB	Brandon Carr
Right CB	Morris Claiborne
Strong Safety	Barry Church
Free Safety	Will Allen
	Special Teams
Kicker	Dan Bailey
Punter	Chris Jones
K-Return	Lance Dunbar
P-Return	Dwayne Harris
Predictions
Record	8-8
Division	2nd Tie

 

Team	New York Giants
Head Coach	Tom Coughlin
O-Coord.	Kevin Gilbride
D-Coord.	Perry Fewell
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Eli Manning
Running Back	David Wilson
Fullback	Henry Hynoski
Wide Receiver	Hakeem Nicks
Wide Receiver	Victor Cruz
Tight End	Brandon Myers
Left Tackle	Will Beatty
Left Guard	Kevin Boothe
Center	David Baas
Right Guard	Chris Snee
Right Tackle	David Diehl
	Defense
Left End	Justin Tuck
Left Tackle	Linval Joseph
Right Tackle	Cullen Jenkins
Right End	Jason Pierre-Paul
Sam LB	Keith Rivers
Mike LB	Dan Connor
Will LB	Spencer Paysinger
Left CB	Corey Webster
Right CB	Prince Amukamara
Strong Safety	Antrel Rolle
Free Safety	Ryan Mundy
	Special Teams
Kicker	Josh Brown
Punter	Steve Weatherford
K-Return	David Wilson
P-Return	Rueben Randle
Predictions
Record	9-7
Division	1st

 

Team	Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach	Chip Kelly
O-Coord.	Pat Shurmur
D-Coord.	Billy Davis
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Michael Vick
Running Back	LeSean McCoy
Wide Receiver	Riley Cooper
Wide Receiver	DeSean Jackson
Tight End	Brent Celek
TE/H-Back	James Casey
Left Tackle	Jason Peters
Left Guard	Evan Mathis
Center	Jason Kelce
Right Guard	Todd Herremans
Right Tackle	Lane Johnson
	Defense
Left End	Cedric Thornton
Nose Tackle	Isaac Sopoaga
Right End	Fletcher Cox
Left OLB	Connor Barwin
Left ILB	Mychal Kendricks
Right ILB	DeMeco Ryans
Right OLB	Trent Cole
Left CB	Bradley Fletcher
Right CB	Cary Williams
Strong Safety	Nate Allen
Free Safety	Patrick Chung
	Special Teams
Kicker	Alex Henery
Punter	Donnie Jones
K-Return	Damaris Johnson
P-Return	DeSean Jackson
Predictions
Record	6-10
Division	4th

 

Team	Washington Redskins
Head Coach	Mike Shanahan
O-Coord.	Kyle Shanahan
D-Coord.	Jim Haslett
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Robert Griffin, III
Running Back	Alfred Morris
Fullback	Darrel Young
Wide Receiver	Pierre Garcon
Wide Receiver	Josh Morgan
Tight End	Fred Davis
Left Tackle	Trent Williams
Left Guard	Kory Lichtensteiger
Center	Will Montgomery
Right Guard	Chris Chester
Right Tackle	Tyler Polumbus
	Defense
Left End	Jarvis Jenkins
Nose Tackle	Barry Cofield
Right End	Stephen Bowen
Left OLB	Ryan Kerrigan
Left ILB	London Fletcher
Right ILB	Perry Riley
Right OLB	Brian Orakpo
Left CB	DeAngelo Hall
Right CB	Josh Wilson
Strong Safety	Brandon Meriweather
Free Safety	Bacarri Rambo
	Special Teams
Kicker	Kai Forbath
Punter	Sav Rocca
K-Return	Niles Paul
P-Return	Santana Moss
Predictions
Record	8-8
Division	2nd Tie

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 16: December 22-23, 2012

Big Games In Week 16

If you have a package where you can choose to view any NFL game and not just the few that your viewing area receives, you will want to tune in the following games this week.

 

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh:  This is basically a wildcard playoff qualifier.  While both teams could mathematically still win the AFC North, chances are that the winner of this game will earn the final playoff spot in the conference.

 

If momentum is a key, Cincinnati has the edge, but when have the Steelers lost a game like this when their backs were up against the wall.  Just when a good team appears to be breaking apart, they always seem to come up with one more terrific game.  We believe the Steelers will win and go on to earn the sixth playoff seed in the AFC.

 

New Orleans at Dallas, Washington at Philadelphia, and New York Giants at Baltimore:  

 

The NFC East is the most interesting race of all.  Three teams are tied at 8-6, and by a quirk, all three still control their playoff destiny.  Dallas and Washington can win the division by winning two games, since only one of these two rivals can win two games (they face off in DC next week).  The Giants can clinch a playoff spot with two wins.  At 10-6, if they don’t win the NFC East, they will be a Wildcard.

 

Of the three contenders, the Redskins have the easy win game.  However, this is not a cinch win for Washington.  First, there is an issue of whether Robert Griffin III can play and if he can play anywhere close to 100%.  Kirk Cousins played admirably last week, but Philadelphia has now seen him on film and can better prepare against his strengths and weaknesses.  If RG3 does not play, this game becomes a tossup.

 

Dallas and New Orleans should light up the scoreboard at the Jerry Dome this week.  Drew Brees will pick the Cowboys’ secondary apart unless the pass rush puts him in jeopardy all game.  Can Tony Romo come through with a big game?  We think so.

 

The Giants have the toughest game, and this game is important on both sides.  We see this one getting ugly with a lot of hard hits and big defensive plays.  The Giants have been Jekyll and Hyde for much of this year, but then they won a Super Bowl championship last year following the same pattern.  The Ravens appear to have hit the wall, losing three straight games after started 9-2.  At 9-5, they are in jeopardy of losing the division title to the Bengals if Cincinnati wins out, and Baltimore loses to the Giants.

 

We think the Giants will win this game with Eli Manning having a big day against the fading Raven defense.

 

Minnesota at Houston: The Vikings are very much alive in the Wildcard race, but they must end the season with victories over two division title winners.  After the Texans, Minnesota must knock off Green Bay next week and then hope that the Giants and either Washington or Dallas do not finish 10-6.  Houston has shown an inability to stop good running games this year, and now they face the absolute best in the league.  If Adrain Peterson rushes for 125 yards, the Vikings have a chance to keep the ball out of Matt Schaub’s hands just enough to win the game.

 

Chicago at Arizona: The Bears are in danger of falling off a cliff for the second consecutive year.  They must close with two wins, or they will be home for the playoffs again.  Last year, Jay Cutler’s injury doomed the offense.  Cutler has missed some time this year, but even when he has been semi-healthy, the Chicago offense has done very little.  The defense cannot score two touchdowns every week, and Devon Hester no longer returns punts 80 yards for touchdowns.

 

Now, after a nine-week sabbatical, Arizona’s offense returned last week.  If the Cardinals play this week like they did against the Lions, you can say bye-bye Bears and bye-bye Lovie Smith.

 

San Francisco at Seattle: It may not be as important as the other games, because both teams will be in the playoffs, but this is the best game of the week and maybe the best game of the entire season.  If Seattle wins out to finish at 11-5, and the 49ers lose next week against a possibly resurgent Arizona, the Seahawks will be division champions and host at least one playoff game.  Nobody wants to play at Centurylink Field.

 

The 49ers are the only team that we feel is tough enough to win at Seattle, but the Seahawks look more like the 1969 Vikings and look invincible at the moment.  If you only watch one football game this week, this is the one.  It will be the most exciting game in years.  If you are old enough to remember the Kansas City-Oakland games of the 1960’s and the Oakland-Pittsburgh games of the 1970’s, then this is the type of game you should expect Sunday.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	105.9	104.9	104.1	103.0	3.5
Washington Redskins	102.1	103.0	103.6	104.0	2.5
Dallas Cowboys	99.6	100.7	101.4	102.0	1.5
Philadelphia Eagles	93.9	92.7	91.8	90.5	2.5
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Green Bay Packers	106.2	106.6	104.9	107.0	2
Chicago Bears	104.2	102.2	101.3	99.0	2.5
Minnesota Vikings	99.2	100.0	100.6	101.0	3.5
Detroit Lions	96.2	95.2	96.2	93.5	3
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	105.0	106.3	106.5	108.0	3
New Orleans Saints	101.3	100.1	98.8	98.0	3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	99.2	97.6	96.5	95.0	3
Carolina Panthers	99.0	98.9	100.1	98.5	1
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Seattle Seahawks	110.5	109.2	108.3	107.0	5
San Francisco 49ers	110.1	109.2	105.6	107.5	2
St. Louis Rams	97.1	97.2	97.2	97.0	1.5
Arizona Cardinals	95.4	94.2	96.2	92.0	4
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	112.1	110.4	106.7	107.5	1
Miami Dolphins	99.7	99.9	99.6	100.0	2.5
New York Jets	97.4	97.6	96.9	97.5	2
Buffalo Bills	93.5	93.4	97.1	93.0	3
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Cincinnati Bengals	103.0	102.7	101.8	102.0	3
Baltimore Ravens	101.5	102.2	102.7	103.0	4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.6	100.3	100.0	101.0	2.5
Cleveland Browns	95.9	97.7	100.3	100.0	2.5
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	105.1	105.8	106.3	106.5	3
Indianapolis Colts	95.6	98.7	100.8	103.0	4
Tennessee Titans	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.5	2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.2	90.2	90.3	90.0	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	110.1	109.8	107.1	109.0	3
San Diego Chargers	97.9	97.7	99.9	97.0	1.5
Oakland Raiders	90.6	92.1	93.1	94.0	3.5
Kansas City Chiefs	88.7	89.1	89.4	89.5	3.5

 

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
Atlanta	DETROIT	5.8	8.1	7.3	11.5	4	50 1/2
GREEN BAY	Tennessee	14.0	14.2	12.3	14.5	13	46
CAROLINA	Oakland	10.4	8.8	9.0	6.5	8 1/2	46
MIAMI	Buffalo	8.7	9.0	5.0	9.5	4 1/2	41 1/2
Cincinnati	PITTSBURGH	0.9	-0.1	-0.7	-1.5	-4	43
New England	JACKSONVILLE	21.4	19.7	15.9	17.0	14 1/2	48 1/2
Indianapolis	KANSAS CITY	3.4	6.1	7.9	10.0	6 1/2	42
New Orleans	DALLAS	0.2	-2.1	-4.1	-5.5	-3	51 1/2
Washington	PHILADELPHIA	5.7	7.8	9.3	11.0	4 1/2	44 1/2
TAMPA BAY	St. Louis	5.1	3.4	2.3	1.0	3	43 1/2
BALTIMORE	N Y Giants	0.1	1.8	3.1	4.5	-2 1/2	47 1/2
HOUSTON	Minnesota	8.9	8.8	8.7	8.5	7 1/2	43 1/2
DENVER	Cleveland	17.2	15.1	9.8	12.0	13	44 1/2
Chicago	ARIZONA	4.8	4.0	1.1	3.0	5 1/2	36 1/2
SEATTLE	San Francisco	5.4	5.0	5.0	5.0	-1	39
N Y JETS	San Diego	2.5	2.9	0.0	3.5	2 1/2	40 1/2

 

Coming Thursday afternoon: The PiRate Picks for the next wave of bowls and Week 16 of the NFL.

 

Coming Friday afternoon: The third installment of the PiRate Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs.

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 14: December 6-10, 2012

Playoff Scenarios

 

A F C East

New England has secured the AFC East title and has a chance to earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs if they can run the table, and Houston loses to somebody else besides the Patriots.

 

The other three teams have mathematical chances of sneaking in as wildcards, but to say they are slim is still overstating those chances by a large margin.  Buffalo could rebound to finish 8-8.

 

A F C North

This race became much more interesting with the Steelers upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore.  Now, the Ravens lead is two games and is no longer infallible.  We see the second place teams Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both winning their next two games, and they should both be 9-5-0 when they face off at Heinz Stadium in week 16.  The winner of that game will be playoff bound, while the loser will need help or be out of the picture.

 

The winner of that week 16 game could finish tied with Baltimore, but the Ravens hold the tiebreaker edge over both teams.

 

A F C South

Houston can secure home field advantage for the playoffs if the Texans win at New England and don’t crumble afterwards.  We see the Texans losing this week and possibly in week 17 at Indianapolis.

 

Speaking of the Colts, Andrew Luck and company are in excellent shape in the wildcard race, and with games remaining with Tennessee and Kansas City, we see this team winning at least 10 games.  They must face Houston twice in the final three weeks, but we believe they will split those games to lock up a wildcard spot.  If they could somehow sweep the Texans, Indy could still emerge as division champs.

 

A F C West

Denver essentially took over command in this division when they came from behind to beat San Diego.  The Chargers collapsed, and the Broncos have run away with the division.  We are a bit concerned about their game at Oakland, because the Raiders always have their A-game against the Broncos.  If they can top the Raiders, the Broncos can run the table and possibly squeeze into the number two spot or even the top spot in the conference.

 

N F C East

Hail to the Redskins!  Washington has bested its two key division rivals in back-to-back games, and now RGIII and his Capital Punishers look to grab a division title.  We think the Redskins and Giants will finished tied for the division lead at 9-7, and if that is so, Washington will win the tiebreaker based on better division record.

 

The Giants can never be counted out, but they are not hitting on all cylinders.  With Atlanta and Baltimore still on the schedule, Eli Manning may not be able to win three more games to clinch a playoff bid.

 

Dallas looks like a stereotypical 8-8 team.  Only if the Giants and Redskins totally collapse will the Cowboys sneak into the playoffs.

 

N F C North

This division has begun to fade rather than improve as the northern chill takes over in the old Black and Blue Division.  Green Bay and Chicago will decide who is the division champ and who is the wildcard when they face off at Lambeau Field in two weeks.

 

Minnesota still has a remote chance to be a wildcard, but at 6-6, the Vikings must win out.  Their final four games include tough road games against Houston and St. Louis, as well as home games against the Bears and Packers.  It’s not happening this year.

 

N F C South

Atlanta almost has home field advantage wrapped up to the Super Bowl.  The Falcons own a 2 ½ game lead over San Francisco and could secure the number one seed in two weeks.  That would leave Atlanta with two meaningless games, but that week 17 game could be very important.

 

The Falcons’ week 17 game comes against Tampa Bay, and the Buccaneers are fighting for a wildcard spot.  The Bucs have a shot at entering that game at 9-6, and then that finale becomes very important.  Tampa Bay almost has to be 10-6 to make it as a wildcard.

 

N F C West

San Francisco may be the best team in the NFC, but the St. Louis Rams believe otherwise.  At 8-3-1, the 49ers are almost a lock to win the division, but they cannot be considered an overwhelming favorite to advance to the Super Bowl.

 

Seattle proved they can win on the road with a key victory in Soldier Field over the Bears.  The Seahawks have three remaining home games and a road game against Buffalo.  The opportunity is there for Pete Carroll’s team to run the table and possibly steal the division title away from San Francisco, but we believe the Seahawks will lose at least one time and have to settle for the wildcard.

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Houston

3. Denver

4. Baltimore

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. San Francisco

3. Green Bay

4. Washington

5. Seattle

6. Chicago

 

Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at Denver

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Chicago at Green Bay

Seattle at Washington

 

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh at New England

Denver at Houston

Seattle at Atlanta

Green Bay at San Francisco

 

Conference Championship

Denver at New England

San Francisco at Atlanta

 

Super Bowl

New England vs. Atlanta

 

New England wins Super Bowl

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	105.9	104.7	104.1	103.5	3
Washington Redskins	100.5	101.1	101.4	102.0	2
Dallas Cowboys	98.8	99.3	99.5	100.0	1.5
Philadelphia Eagles	93.6	92.5	92.0	91.5	3.5
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Chicago Bears	106.2	104.6	103.7	103.0	2.5
Green Bay Packers	105.4	103.9	101.8	102.5	2.5
Detroit Lions	98.5	97.5	98.5	96.5	2.5
Minnesota Vikings	96.7	97.7	98.1	99.0	3.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	105.6	106.8	106.6	108.5	2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	102.2	101.5	99.7	101.0	2.5
New Orleans Saints	101.5	100.9	100.8	100.5	2.5
Carolina Panthers	94.5	94.2	96.2	94.0	1.5
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	108.3	107.1	104.2	106.0	2.5
Seattle Seahawks	104.4	104.3	104.3	104.5	5
St. Louis Rams	97.8	98.5	98.8	99.5	3.5
Arizona Cardinals	96.6	94.6	95.9	92.5	2
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	111.2	109.4	106.0	107.5	1.5
Miami Dolphins	98.9	98.8	98.6	99.0	1.5
New York Jets	97.9	96.9	96.2	96.0	2
Buffalo Bills	96.7	97.7	101.0	99.0	3.5
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Baltimore Ravens	103.6	104.4	104.8	105.5	4.5
Cincinnati Bengals	102.6	103.1	103.2	104.0	3
Pittsburgh Steelers	101.7	103.1	102.6	105.0	4
Cleveland Browns	95.6	96.1	97.8	97.0	2
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	107.8	108.3	108.5	109.0	3
Indianapolis Colts	95.6	99.4	101.3	104.0	4.5
Tennessee Titans	93.5	93.9	94.0	94.5	2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	91.2	91.7	91.9	92.5	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	108.3	108.1	105.9	108.0	3
San Diego Chargers	98.0	97.4	99.2	97.0	2.5
Kansas City Chiefs	90.8	91.0	91.1	91.5	2.5
Oakland Raiders	90.0	91.5	92.3	93.5	3.5

 

Here are this week’s PiRate spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
Denver	OAKLAND	14.8	13.1	10.1	11.0	10 1/2	49 1/2
Baltimore	WASHINGTON	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.5	-2 1/2	47
CLEVELAND	Kansas City	6.8	7.1	8.7	7.5	5 1/2	37 1/2
PITTSBURGH	San Diego	7.7	9.7	7.4	12.0	NL	NL
INDIANAPOLIS	Tennessee	6.6	10.0	11.8	14.0	5 1/2	48
New York Jets	JACKSONVILLE	6.2	4.7	3.8	3.0	2 1/2	38 1/2
Chicago	MINNESOTA	6.0	3.4	2.1	0.5	3	39 1/2
Atlanta	CAROLINA	9.6	11.1	8.9	13.0	3 1/2	47 1/2
TAMPA BAY	Philadelphia	11.1	11.5	10.2	12.0	7	47
BUFFALO	St. Louis	2.4	2.7	5.7	3.0	3	42
CINCINNATI	Dallas	6.8	6.8	6.7	7.0	3	45 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Miami	11.9	10.8	8.1	9.5	10	39
NEW YORK GIANTS	New Orleans	7.4	6.8	6.3	6.0	5	53 1/2
SEATTLE	Arizona	12.8	14.7	13.4	17.0	10 1/2	34 1/2
GREEN BAY	Detroit	9.4	8.9	5.8	8.5	6 1/2	52
NEW ENGLAND	Houston	4.9	2.6	-1.0	0.0	3 1/2	51 1/2

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 4–October 2-3, 2011

An Interesting Phenomenon

After three games of the 2011 NFL season, in each of the eight divisions, a team that did not make the playoffs last year is either leading or tied for the lead.  In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills own sole possession of first place.  The Cleveland Browns are in a tie for first in the AFC North.  Tennessee and Houston are tied for the lead in the AFC South, and Oakland and Kansas City are tied for first in the AFC West.

 

In the NFC East, the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys are in a tie for first.  Detroit is tied for first in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is tied for first in the AFC South.  San Francisco leads the NFC West.

 

The only teams that made the playoffs last year to be tied for the lead in their division are Baltimore, Green Bay, and New Orleans.

 

PiRate QB Passer Formula Returns Next Week

Beginning next week, we will once again carry the PiRate Passer Ratings for the NFL quarterbacks. 

 

The official NFL Passer Rating is out-dated.  There are several different sabermetric methods to judge passer efficiency these days, and most of these new versions put the official version to shame.

 

Here is the official version the NFL uses:

 

I.      (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.     (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.    (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.    2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  For example, let’s look at Aaron Rodgers to date.

 

Here are his stats.

 

Completion Percentage         71.84

Yards Per Attempt               8.9

TDs Per Attempt                  .078

INTs Per Attempt                 .01

 

(71.84-30.0)*.05 = 2.092

(8.9-3.0)*.25 = 1.475

.078*20 = 1.560

(2.375-(25*.01)) = 2.125

 

(2.092+1.475+1.560+2.125)*16.667=120.9

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes a 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 inch line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one inch away from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8, which is 2.1 points less than Aaron Rodgers’ current rating!  Rodgers is not worth more than a 98-yard completion every time he throws a pass.

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds of protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3^rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completes a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consists of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with that back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 

Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 

Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 

In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4^th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1^st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 

Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

 

For this example, we will compare two quarterbacks, Eli Manning and Tony Romo.  Manning has the better official NFL passer rating, leading Romo 104.3 to 95.8.

 

Here are the components for the PiRate Passer Ratings.

 

Manning: AYPA = 6.0  Int% = 2.35

Romo: AYPA = 7.4  Int% = 1.90

 

Manning = [6.0 * 7 – (11 * 2.35) + 105] * .8 =96.9

Romo = [7.4 * 7 – (11*1.90) + 105] * .8 = 108.7

 

According to our formula, Romo has been the better passer after three weeks of the 2011 season. 

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

 

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New York Giants	105.6	102.3	103.2	3
Philadelphia Eagles	104.0	101.0	101.4	2
Dallas Cowboys	101.7	102.1	102.4	3
Washington Redskins	96.7	99.5	100.9	2.5
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay Packers	107.9	108.2	109.0	3
Detroit Lions	104.4	103.6	103.8	4
Chicago Bears	101.3	101.0	102.2	2.5
Minnesota Vikings	98.0	98.5	96.2	2.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New Orleans Saints	108.9	105.6	105.5	3
Atlanta Falcons	103.6	100.7	102.4	2
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	98.9	100.3	99.7	2.5
Carolina Panthers	92.9	95.3	97.2	2
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	96.5	100.1	100.0	3.5
Arizona Cardinals	94.6	95.6	95.3	3.5
St. Louis Rams	92.0	90.9	89.2	1.5
Seattle Seahawks	91.0	92.7	91.8	3.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England Patriots	107.7	108.1	106.4	4
New York Jets	104.6	105.0	103.9	3.5
Buffalo Bills	100.0	101.9	105.4	3.5
Miami Dolphins	97.8	97.1	97.2	0.5
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore Ravens	107.0	107.3	105.7	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	106.9	103.8	102.3	4
Cleveland Browns	96.3	96.3	97.5	2.5
Cincinnati Bengals	94.8	97.1	99.4	2
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Houston Texans	105.7	104.1	104.2	3
Tennessee Titans	99.1	100.6	100.4	3.5
Indianapolis Colts	97.0	95.4	92.9	2
Jacksonville Jaguars	93.9	94.6	93.4	2.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego Chargers	103.5	100.3	99.9	3.5
Oakland Raiders	99.4	101.6	102.5	3
Kansas City Chiefs	94.8	92.7	92.0	1.5
Denver Broncos	94.1	96.3	96.8	1.5

Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads.

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(n) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 4: October 2-3, 2011
Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, September 27, 2011  8:30 AM EDT
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
DALLAS	Detroit	0.3	1.5	1.6	3	47 1/2
New Orleans	JACKSONVILLE	12.5	8.5	9.6	7	46 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	San Francisco	9.5	2.9	3.4	6	41 1/2
Washington	ST. LOUIS	3.2	7.1	10.2	Pk	44 1/2
Tennessee	CLEVELAND	0.3	1.8	0.4	-1 1/2	38
Buffalo	CINCINNATI	3.2	2.8	4.0	3	44
Minnesota	KANSAS CITY	1.7	4.3	2.7	1	40
CHICAGO	Carolina	10.9	8.2	7.5	6 1/2	44
HOUSTON	Pittsburgh	1.8	3.3	4.9	4	45
Atlanta	SEATTLE	9.1	4.5	7.1	4 1/2	41 1/2
ARIZONA	New York Giants	7.5	3.2	4.4	-1	45
SAN DIEGO	Miami	9.2	6.7	6.2	7 1/2	45 1/2
GREEN BAY	Denver	16.8	14.9	15.2	13	47 1/2
New England	OAKLAND	5.3	3.5	0.9	4 1/2	53 1/2
BALTIMORE	New York Jets	3.3	6.3	5.8	3 1/2	40 1/2
TAMPA BAY	Indianapolis	4.4	7.4	9.3	10	41 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	4	–	0	310	257	106.6	105.7	105.8	2
NY Giants	7	–	4	–	0	277	240	103.3	102.5	103.3	2
Dallas	3	–	8	–	0	256	301	96.8	98.9	99.5	2
Washington	5	–	6	–	0	215	262	96.3	97.1	96.1	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	7	–	4	–	0	269	166	109.9	109.9	106.8	3
Chicago	8	–	3	–	0	222	172	103.3	103.4	104.7	4
Minnesota	4	–	7	–	0	189	239	97.1	99.0	99.6	3
Detroit	2	–	9	–	0	258	282	95.0	96.7	93.9	4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Atlanta	9	–	2	–	0	276	209	106.3	105.3	106.9	4
New Orleans	8	–	3	–	0	265	197	105.8	104.5	106.6	2
Tampa Bay	7	–	4	–	0	219	223	99.1	99.0	100.6	2
Carolina	1	–	10	–	0	140	276	92.7	90.0	90.3	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	4	–	7	–	0	187	225	97.2	95.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	5	–	6	–	0	213	231	95.2	94.5	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	6	–	0	209	275	93.9	92.5	95.3	3
Arizona	3	–	8	–	0	194	319	88.0	88.3	89.7	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England	9	–	2	–	0	334	266	107.8	107.0	107.5	3
NY Jets	9	–	2	–	0	264	187	106.3	105.5	106.3	2
Miami	6	–	5	–	0	205	225	102.3	101.3	102.3	3
Buffalo	2	–	9	–	0	229	295	97.7	97.1	97.0	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	8	–	3	–	0	250	188	107.4	105.9	106.1	4
Pittsburgh	8	–	3	–	0	254	181	105.0	105.7	104.9	2
Cleveland	4	–	7	–	0	216	229	98.6	99.5	98.2	4
Cincinnati	2	–	9	–	0	225	288	95.0	95.5	91.3	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	5	–	0	282	252	102.9	102.9	102.2	4
Houston	5	–	6	–	0	264	287	100.6	100.3	99.4	2
Tennessee	5	–	6	–	0	257	218	96.7	102.1	96.5	4
Jacksonville	6	–	5	–	0	240	294	96.6	96.5	98.4	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	6	–	5	–	0	310	225	106.9	106.2	104.2	4
Kansas City	7	–	4	–	0	285	231	100.2	100.2	101.1	4
Oakland	5	–	6	–	0	255	256	96.3	96.4	97.7	2
Denver	3	–	8	–	0	250	323	93.6	95.2	92.2	2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Houston	8.0	7.4	8.4	8 1/2	51 1/2
MINNESOTA	Buffalo	2.4	4.9	5.6	6	44 1/2
MIAMI	Cleveland	6.7	4.8	7.1	4 1/2	42 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	4.1	9.6	2.1	NL	NL
KANSAS CITY	Denver	10.6	9.0	12.9	8 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Washington	9.0	7.4	9.2	7	43
Chicago	DETROIT	4.3	2.7	6.8	3 1/2	44 1/2
GREEN BAY	San Francisco	15.7	17.5	11.5	9 1/2	42
New Orleans	CINCINNATI	7.8	6.0	12.3	6 1/2	46 1/2
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	5.2	4.3	4.3	3	44 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	14.6	13.8	10.5	12 1/2	45 1/2
SEATTLE	Carolina	4.2	5.5	8.0	6	39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Dallas	10.1	8.0	6.7	5 1/2	47 1/2
St. Louis	ARIZONA	3.2	2.2	3.4	3	43
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	6.4	4.2	5.2	3	40
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	4.5	4.5	4.2	3 1/2	46

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	#
Michael Vick	Phi	6.8	0.43	118.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	1.12	110.5
Kyle Orton	Den	6.3	1.40	107.0
Matt Cassel	KC	6.0	1.24	106.7
Matt Ryan	Atl	5.6	1.23	104.5
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	6.4	1.82	103.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.39	102.1
Josh Freeman	TB	5.6	1.53	101.9
Vince Young	Ten	6.2	1.92	101.8
Matt Shaub	Hou	5.8	1.91	99.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	6.2	2.44	97.3
Seneca Wallace	Cle	5.4	2.00	96.6
Joe Flacco	Bal	5.7	2.19	96.6
Peyton Manning	Ind	5.6	2.26	95.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.20	93.8
Colt McCoy	Cle	5.4	2.36	93.5
Sam Bradford	Stl	4.5	2.18	90.0
Matt Hasselebeck	Sea	4.9	2.56	88.9
Kevin Kolb	Phi	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	Dal	5.7	3.29	87.0
Drew Brees	NO	5.4	3.29	85.3
Chad Henne	Mia	5.3	3.27	84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	4.8	3.03	84.2
Kerry Collins	Ten	4.2	2.80	82.8
Jay Cutler	Chi	5.0	3.42	81.9
Donovan McNabb	Was	4.8	3.31	81.8
Derek Anderson	Ari	4.2	2.93	81.7
Shaun Hill	Det	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jason Campbell	Oak	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jon Kitna	Dal	5.2	4.00	77.9
Carson Palmer	Cin	4.3	3.47	77.5
Eli Manning	NYG	5.2	4.26	75.7
Jimmy Clausen	Car	3.1	3.01	74.9
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
David Garrard	Jax	4.3	4.42	69.2
Bruce Gradkowski	Oak	4.0	4.43	67.4
Brett Favre	Min	4.2	4.86	64.8
Matt Moore	Car	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	3	–	0	284	226	106.9	106.2	106.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	4	–	0	253	220	104.1	102.5	103.5	2
Washington	5	–	5	–	0	202	245	97.3	98.8	99.0	3
Dallas	3	–	7	–	0	229	271	96.3	98.8	99.4	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	7	–	3	–	0	252	146	110.4	108.5	107.7	3
Chicago	7	–	3	–	0	191	146	103.0	102.8	102.7	4
Detroit	2	–	8	–	0	234	237	96.7	97.1	95.5	4
Minnesota	3	–	7	–	0	172	226	96.1	97.3	94.8	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	7	–	3	–	0	235	170	106.3	103.8	105.4	2
Atlanta	8	–	2	–	0	256	192	105.8	105.0	106.7	4
Tampa Bay	7	–	3	–	0	209	206	98.3	99.6	101.1	2
Carolina	1	–	9	–	0	117	252	91.5	89.0	90.4	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Seattle	5	–	5	–	0	185	233	95.4	94.9	96.0	3
St. Louis	4	–	6	–	0	177	198	94.5	94.6	95.8	4
San Francisco	3	–	7	–	0	160	219	94.2	93.9	95.6	4
Arizona	3	–	7	–	0	188	292	91.0	91.3	91.4	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	8	–	2	–	0	289	242	106.1	105.6	106.9	3
NY Jets	8	–	2	–	0	238	177	106.0	105.0	106.1	2
Miami	5	–	5	–	0	172	208	100.7	100.5	100.0	3
Buffalo	2	–	8	–	0	213	276	97.2	97.0	96.2	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	7	–	3	–	0	233	178	108.2	105.1	106.0	4
Pittsburgh	7	–	3	–	0	235	165	105.5	106.2	105.7	2
Cleveland	3	–	7	–	0	192	206	99.8	99.9	97.3	4
Cincinnati	2	–	8	–	0	215	262	95.3	95.8	93.2	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	6	–	4	–	0	268	216	105.6	104.5	104.8	4
Tennessee	5	–	5	–	0	257	198	98.9	103.4	100.2	4
Houston	4	–	6	–	0	244	287	98.4	98.4	97.9	2
Jacksonville	6	–	4	–	0	220	270	95.8	97.6	100.8	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	5	–	5	–	0	274	211	104.2	103.5	103.7	4
Kansas City	6	–	4	–	0	243	207	98.7	99.8	100.6	4
Oakland	5	–	5	–	0	238	223	97.9	98.1	98.9	2
Denver	3	–	7	–	0	217	287	94.3	95.4	91.1	2

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
New England	DETROIT	5.4	4.5	7.4	6 1/2	51
New Orleans	DALLAS	8.0	3.0	4.0	3 1/2	50
NEW YORK JETS	Cincinnati	12.7	11.2	14.9	9	43
WASHINGTON	Minnesota	4.2	4.5	7.2	1 1/2	43
Pittsburgh	BUFFALO	6.3	7.2	7.5	6 1/2	43
HOUSTON	Tennessee	1.5	-3.0	-0.3	NL	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Jacksonville	10.3	6.9	4.7	7	44 1/2
CLEVELAND	Carolina	12.3	14.9	10.9	11	37 1/2
BALTIMORE	Tampa Bay	13.9	9.5	8.9	7 1/2	41
CHICAGO	Philadelphia	0.1	0.6	0.7	-3	42 1/2
Green Bay	ATLANTA	0.6	-0.5	-3.0	-2	47 1/2
Miami	OAKLAND	0.8	0.4	-0.9	NL	NL
Kansas City	SEATTLE	0.3	1.9	1.6	1 1/2	44 1/2
DENVER	Bitmap St. Louis	1.8	2.8	-2.7	4	44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	San Diego	5.4	5.0	5.1	3	52
ARIZONA	San Francisco	0.8	1.4	-0.2	Pk	40

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.2	0.00	124.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.1	1.22	107.5
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.2	1.55	105.1
Matt Cassel	KC	5.9	1.37	104.9
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.6	1.33	103.7
Peyton Manning	IND	5.9	1.59	103.0
Vince Young	TEN	6.2	1.92	101.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.5	2.14	101.6
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.55	100.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.72	100.7
Matt Schaub	HOU	6.0	2.11	99.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.7	2.12	97.3
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.3	2.08	95.3
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.4	2.36	93.5
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.8	2.69	92.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	4.9	2.23	91.8
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.39	85.9
Drew Brees	NO	5.2	3.36	83.6
Chad Henne	MIA	5.0	3.27	83.2
Shaun Hill	DET	4.5	2.95	83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.8	3.16	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	3.35	81.9
Derek Anderson	ARI	4.2	2.94	81.6
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.30	81.3
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.7	3.69	77.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Jon Kitna	DAL	5.0	4.43	73.0
Eli Manning	NYG	4.9	4.55	71.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	3.8	3.97	70.4
David Garrard	JAX	4.7	4.67	69.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.0	5.20	60.7
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
					AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com