The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 13, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 2: September 15-19,2016

Few Surprises In Week One

As NFL seasons go, week one was a rather tame beginning to the new season.  Because nothing is ever certain, there were a couple of eye-openers, but overall when compared to years past, this was a so-so beginning to the year.

The biggest news to come out of Week One was the across the board drop in TV ratings.  According to reports in Forbes Magazine, Thursday night’s Broncos-Panthers game on NBC was off 8%.  The Sunday afternoon games saw a ratings drop of 13%, and the Sunday night game was off 18% in the most important age group of 18-49 year olds.  We won’t pretend to have the answers, but we have heard many opinions about this today including:

  1. Protests of the National Anthem
  2. Americans have given up cable and satellite dish subscriptions in record numbers
  3. The 2016 Presidential Election is more entertaining to follow
  4. Americans are souring on the concussion issue
  5. The game has become a one-dimensional game where all 32 teams play the same way

Or, it could just be that this past weekend was a really nice one to be outside enjoying nature, shopping malls, visiting relatives, or anything else.  Maybe, the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Dodgers are contending for the Major League Playoffs in September, and more sports fans in the three largest markets were watching baseball.  The Cubs and Jake Arrieta were on ESPN Sunday night.

We’ll see if the ratings return to normalcy in Week Two.  There are some really interesting contests this week, so let’s take a look at a reason to watch if you can get these games.

Jets at Bills

One of these teams is going to be 0-2, facing a mountain to conquer to get into the playoffs.  The odds for finishing 9-7 or better after an 0-2 start since 2000 is something like 5-7%, and when you consider that the Patriots are going to win double digit games, we are talking about a Wildcard prospect.  The loser of this game can almost count itself out in the 2016 playoff race rather quickly, as both teams must still play New England twice.  If Buffalo loses, the Ryan brothers may wish to try going over Niagara Falls in a barrel made for two.

 

49ers at Panthers

The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against San Francisco this week.  They played a late Monday night game, while Carolina played last Thursday night.  They must travel all the way across the country to face a mad Panthers’ team that felt like they blew their opener on the road.  Carolina is a good touchdown better at home than they are on the road, while San Francisco is young and still learning Chip Kelly’s philosophy on the fly.  If the 49ers can pull off a monumental upset, or even if they continue to play top notch defense and lose a close game, the folks in Phoenix and Seattle will certainly take notice, and the folks in the Bay Area will become fanatical once again.  If Carolina loses, then the South race becomes wide open.

 

Titans at Lions

The way the Lions came back in the closing seconds to top the Colts further reinforces our preseason beliefs that this team is capable of challenging for a playoff spot.  Detroit has the easiest path to a 2-0 record as the Titans continue to bring up the rear in the NFL.  Their archaic offensive playing style does not win in the NFL in the 21st Century, as football metrics show the teams that pass the ball and defend the pass the best are the teams that win big.  Running games may look like the way to go, but in most instances, rushing statistics are inflated by teams running the ball to eat the clock once their passing game and pass defense has secured a winnable lead.  The Titans have issues against the pass as well, while Detroit can put up 300 passing yards against almost any team. Expect a lopsided win for the home team in Motown.

 

Chiefs at Texans

One of these two teams will be 2-0 on Sunday, but 2-0 teams are not as sure of a lock at making the playoffs than 0-2 teams are at not making it.  Still, 2-0 teams make the playoffs more than 60% of the time.  Houston might have closer to an 80% chance of making the playoffs if the Texans win this game and the Colts lose.  They could conceivably start the year with a two-game cushion on the entire division.  Kansas City eeked out an overtime comeback win in week one, and the Chiefs have been a slow-starter in recent years.  Should KC win this game, then watch out AFC fans–if the road to the Super Bowl runs through Arrowhead Stadium, the home field advantage in Kansas City in January is about as strong as the home field advantage at Bryant Denny Stadium in November.

 

Saints at Giants

Sean Payton’s magic may be going the way of former Giants head man Tom Coughlin.  The Saints can still move the ball and score points, but their defense has never been the same since Bountygate.  As long as Eli Manning has Odell Beckham, and now he has Victor Cruz, the Giants can put points on the board with anybody.  Because the Giants also have a halfway decent defense, a win this week makes the NFC East look very winnable.  The Saints need to win to keep even with Carolina and to possibly stay within a game of the surprising Bucs.

 

Bengals at Steelers

This may be the most important rivalry game between these teams since Terry Bradshaw and Ken Anderson faced off against each other back in the 1970’s, and Paul Brown played human chess against Chuck Noll.  Quite frankly, these two teams could be contending for the top won-loss record in the AFC, and the fans of both teams understand how a rivalry should be played.

 

Buccaneers at Cardinals

Cardinals’ GM Steve Keim was fully in his rights to lash out against the poor performance of his team Sunday night, but doing it in such a public manner might prove to be counterproductive in the 21st Century.  This isn’t 1978 when George Steinbrenner’s media monologues could light a fire under his team.  What’s Keim going to do next–fire Bruce Arians?  Who would be his Bob Lemon?  Tampa Bay meanwhile looked like a solid team in an opener against Atlanta.  The game should be interesting even if the extracurricular activities have no effect at all.

 

Seahawks at Rams

Los Angeles is not that inept; last night’s debacle cannot be the norm for the Rams.  Or could it?  We’re talking about a team of nomads with no real home just yet.  They have had to sojourn all over the LA area this summer, and they looked like a team that had been wandering in the desert for 40 years with no help from the Great Master.  Jeff Fisher is not Moses.  Pete Carroll was once treated like Moses in this town, and he will return to play a game in the great coliseum where he led the USC Trojans to victory almost every time in that venue.  This will be the first NFL regular season game in the LA Coliseum since December of 1979.  There’s even been a Dodgers game in this facility since the Rams last played here.

 

Falcons at Raiders

When is the last time Oakland began the year 2-0?  It was 2002, when the Raiders last played in the Super Bowl.  This is a team that is riding sky high after coming from behind to win in New Orleans Sunday afternoon.  Coach Jack Del Rio showed confidence in his team by going for two to either win or lose the game rather than take the almost automatic tie and go to overtime.  When Oakland converted, it boosted the morale and confidence in the Silver and Black.  It was probably worth an extra 3 to 5 points to their team for the near future.  Meanwhile, the Falcons began the season with the same belief, but that enthusiasm and confidence crash and burned after losing to Tampa Bay.  This could be another 0-2 team already looking at 2017 rather than 2016 if Atlanta loses this week.

 

Packers at Vikings

What better way to end Sunday night than to watch the great white north rivalry?  Unless your name is Ole, Lena, or Sven, you may not realize how great a rivalry this is.  Even when one team is down and the other is strong, this game tends to be quite worthwhile to view.  Because both teams currently are rather strong, this becomes the top game of the night, or maybe the co-top game with the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game.  This year, this game takes on more importance, because most likely the Lions will already be 2-0 when the rivals kick off.

 

Here are this week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
N. Y. Jets 103.5 101.1 104.7 103.1 61 42
New England 102.0 99.4 102.5 101.3 61 40
Buffalo 98.9 99.9 99.0 99.3 58 41
Miami 95.9 97.2 95.8 96.3 58 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Cincinnati 107.5 106.8 108.4 107.6 65 43
Pittsburgh 105.2 104.9 106.5 105.5 65 41
Baltimore 98.9 101.1 98.6 99.5 62 38
Cleveland 90.7 91.7 90.1 90.8 58 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 101.1 102.6 101.1 101.6 64 38
Indianapolis 97.3 99.4 96.1 97.6 62 36
Jacksonville 97.2 98.9 96.5 97.5 59 39
Tennessee 92.2 94.4 91.6 92.7 54 39
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.9 102.3 106.1 104.7 62 43
Kansas City 102.2 101.6 103.2 102.3 63 39
Oakland 98.9 99.5 99.0 99.1 63 36
San Diego 97.8 98.9 97.6 98.1 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Washington 98.5 99.3 98.3 98.7 61 38
N.Y. Giants 98.6 97.7 98.3 98.2 62 36
Philadelphia 99.4 96.3 98.7 98.1 61 37
Dallas 93.1 93.4 92.5 93.0 54 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 104.7 104.0 104.7 104.5 65 40
Minnesota 102.6 101.6 103.1 102.4 60 42
Detroit 100.9 100.5 100.6 100.7 64 37
Chicago 97.0 95.0 96.8 96.3 56 40
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 109.2 107.9 110.2 109.1 65 44
New Orleans 99.2 101.8 98.5 99.8 64 36
Tampa Bay 97.5 98.7 96.6 97.6 60 38
Atlanta 95.4 98.4 95.1 96.3 61 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Arizona 108.4 105.6 109.4 107.8 68 40
Seattle 108.1 104.7 109.1 107.3 64 43
Los Angeles 96.5 98.3 95.7 96.9 56 41
San Francisco 95.8 97.1 95.8 96.2 56 40

Here are this week’s spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Score
Buffalo New York Jets -2.6 0.8 -3.7 17-19
Carolina San Francisco 17.4 14.8 18.4 27-10
Cleveland Baltimore -5.7 -6.9 -6.0 21-27
Detroit Tennessee 11.7 9.1 12.0 28-17
Houston Kansas City 1.9 4.0 0.9 27-24
New England Miami 9.1 5.2 9.7 24-16
New York Giants New Orleans 2.4 -1.1 2.8 28-27
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 0.2 0.6 0.6 24-23
Washington Dallas 8.4 8.9 8.8 23-14
Arizona Tampa Bay 13.9 9.9 15.8 33-20
Los Angeles Seattle -8.1 -2.9 -9.9 13-20
Denver Indianapolis 11.6 5.9 13.0 27-17
Oakland Atlanta 6.5 4.1 6.9 30-24
San Diego Jacksonville 3.6 3.0 4.1 27-24
Minnesota Green Bay -0.1 -0.4 0.4 22-23
Chicago Philadelphia 0.1 1.2 0.6 21-20

 

 

 

 

August 29, 2015

2015 NFC East Preview

2014–Dallas Cowboys

2013–Philadelphia Eagles

2012–Washington Redskins

2011–New York Giants

The NFC East is the only division where all four teams have won a division title in the last four years.  Three of the four have legitimate shots to win it in 2015, not because they are all great.  This division could easily go to a 9-7 team, and it would not surprise us one bit if three teams go 9-7.

Dallas lost in the second round of the playoffs to Green Bay in Lambeau Field at the end of the game last year.  If you are over 55, you can remember when this happened the first go around.  That happened in 1967, and then in 1968, Dallas had what many believe to be their best team ever, but the Cowboys were blown out in the first round of the playoffs to the Browns and did not make it to the Super Bowl for two more years after that.  History could repeat itself this year.  The Cowboys could get back to the playoffs and lose in the first game, because their offense figures to be too one dimensional.  Tony Romo had some pressure taken off having the top runner in the league last year, but now he has an unproven Joseph Randle or an over-the-hill Darren McFadden in the backfield.  The Cowboys’ defense is still top-rate, but we do not expect Dallas to score 467 points again this year.

 

New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin may be at the end of the line.  The Giants went 6-10 last year, and it may take a record reversal to save Coughlin’s job.  Eli Manning to Odell Beckham became a big deal every Sunday in 2014, and with Reuben Randle on the other side, the Giants might move the ball through the air like nobody else in the NFC.  The running game will not shine, but with Rashad Jennings and Andre Jennings returning and adding Shane Vereen to the roster, the Giants will convert short yardage situations into first downs well enough to maintain possession of the ball.  A weak front seven, something Coughlin’s best teams always had, may be the liability that keeps New York from getting back to the top of the division.

 

Philadelphia made a lot of changes in the off-season sending starting quarterback Nick Foles to the Rams for Sam Bradford and then continuing with the acquisition of DeMarco Murray, he of the 1,845 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns for Dallas last year.  But, then the Eagles continued to change personnel like a team bent on starting over from scratch.  Stars Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Trent Cole departed.   Nate Allen, Bradley Fisher, Cary Williams, and Casey Matthews joine Cole to create five new starters on defense.  It will be an interesting season in the City of Brotherly Boos, and we think the Eagles will get their share from the hometown fans when they figure to come up short once again.

 

The Jay Gruden era in the nation’s capital may last just two years, or even less if the Washington Redskins don’t improve at the start of the 2015 season.  The schedule actually helps the Redskins this season, as the first seven games prior to their bye week give them chances to win four or five times.  After the bye, wins may be hard to come by.  Robert Griffin III begins the regular season recuperating from a concussion, and Alfred Morris is still around.  The defense figures to be a little better with the addition of Dashon Goldson, but the Redskins figure to be looking up at the other three teams in the division.

 

DALLAS COWBOYS

Cowboys Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Dez Bryant
WR Terrance Williams
WR Cole Beasely
TE Jason Whitten
LT Tyron Smith
LG Ronald Leary
C Travis Frederick
RG Zach Martin
RT Doug Free
QB Tony Romo
HB Joseph Randle
FB Tyler Clutts
   
Defense
DE DeMarcus Lawrence
NT Nick Hayden
DT Tyrone Crawford
DE Jeremy Mincey/Greg Hardy
LB Kyle Wilber
LB Anthony Hitchens
LB Sean Lee
CB Brandon Carr
S J. J. Wilcox
S Barry Church
CB Morris Claiborne
N5 Byron Jones
   
Special
Kicker Dan Bailey
Punter Chris Jones
KR Lance Dunbar
PR Cole Beasely
Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach Jason Garrett
Off. Coordinator Scott Linehan
Def. Coordinator Rod Marinelli
2014 W-L-T 12-4-0
Pts 29.2
Opp 22.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 106.9
Mean 105.6
Bias 107.6
Average 106.7
   
Grades  
Running C-
Passing A+
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C-
Special Teams B
Coaching + Intangibles B
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 1
Conference Rank 3
Overall Rank 5
Postseason Yes

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Odell Beckham, Jr.
WR Rueben Randle
WR Victor Cruz
TE Larry Donnell
LT Ereck Flowers
LG Justin Pugh
C Weston Richburg
RG Geoff Schwartz
RT Marshall Newhouse
QB Eli Manning
HB Rashad Jennings
FB Henry Hynoski
New York Giants
Head Coach Tom Coughlin
Off. Coordinator Ben McAdoo
Def. Coordinator Steve Spagnolo
2014 W-L-T 6-10-0
Pts 23.8
Opp 25.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 99.9
Mean 99.7
Bias 100.4
Average 100.0
   
Grades  
Running C
Passing A-
Vs. Run C-
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles A-
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 3
Conference Rank 8
Overall Rank 16
Postseason No

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Eagles Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Jordan Matthews
WR Nelson Agholor
WR Riley Cooper
TE Zach Ertz
LT Jason Peters
LG Allen Barbre
C Jason Kelce
RG Andrew Gardner
RT Lane Johnson
QB Sam Bradford
HB DeMarco Murray
FB (NONE)
   
Defense
DE Fletcher Cox
DT Bennie Logan
DE Cedric Thornton
LB Connor Barwin
LB Mychal Kendricks
LB Kiko Alonso
LB Brandon Graham
CB Nolan Carroll
S Malcolm Jenkins
S Walter Thurmond
CB Byron Maxwell
N5 Eric Rowe
   
Special
Kicker Cody Parkey
Punter Donnie Jones
KR Josh Huff
PR Darren Sproles
Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach Chip Kelly
Off. Coordinator Pat Shurmur
Def. Coordinator Bill Davis
2014 W-L-T 10-6-0
Pts 29.7
Opp 25.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 104.7
Mean 103.9
Bias 105.2
Average 104.6
   
Grades  
Running A
Passing B
Vs. Run A
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles B+
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 2
Conference Rank 4
Overall Rank 8
Postseason Yes

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Redskins Starting Lineup
Offense
WR DeSean Jackson
WR Pierre Garcon
WR Andre Roberts
TE Jordan Reed
LT Trent Williams
LG Shawn Lauvao
C Kory Lichtensteiger
RG Brandon Scherff
RT Morgan Moses
QB Robert Griffin III
HB Alfred Morris
FB Darrel Young
   
Defense
DE Stephen Paea
NT Terrance Knighton
DE Jason Hatcher
LB Ryan Kerrigan
LB Keenan Robinson
LB Perry Riley
LB Trent Murphy
CB DeAngelo Hall
S Duke Ihenacho
S Dashon Golden
CB Chris Culliver
N5 Bashaud Breeland
   
Special
Kicker Kai Forbath
Punter Tress Way
KR Andre Roberts
PR Andre Roberts
Washington Redskins
Head Coach Jay Gruden
Off. Coordinator Sean McVay
Def. Coordinator Joe Barry
2014 W-L-T 4-12-0
Pts 18.8
Opp 27.4
   
Ratings  
PiRate 93.2
Mean 92.1
Bias 92.5
Average 92.6
   
Grades  
Running C+
Passing C-
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams C
Coaching + Intangibles D
   
Predicted W-L 6-10-0
Division Rank 4
Conference Rank 15
Overall Rank 29
Postseason No

 

August 29, 2013

2013 NFC East Preview

2013 N F C East Preview

The NFC East Division promises to be one of the most exciting divisional races this year, as the top team may come back to the pack and the bottom team may be vastly improved.  Due to the handicapped scheduling, Washington must face Atlanta and San Francisco in its extra two games, while Philadelphia gets Tampa Bay and Arizona.

 

We believe this is the last year where the New York Giants have enough talent to challenge for another Super Bowl run.  Eli Manning has enough parts left to guide the Giants back to the top of the division, even if the team is starting to age and lose key parts.  9-7 may be good enough to get into the playoffs in this balanced division, but the Giants schedule includes games against Carolina and Seattle.  They could lose both, but the key is to go 4-2 in divisional play.

 

Dallas and Washington might split 100 games against each other 50 to 50.  These teams have definite assets and liabilities that other teams can exploit or be exploited by.  They look like 8-8 teams to us.  Dallas faces New Orleans and St. Louis, and they could win both, split, or lose both.  If they happen to win both, then Jerryworld could be happy after 17 weeks.

 

Philadelphia is a big wildcard this year.  Can Chip Kelly’s college offense resurrect the Eagles?  As long as Michael Vick stays healthy, this offense will work in the NFL.  However, we don’t believe Vick can start 16 games without getting banged up.  Thus, we expect the Eagles to be better at the start of the season than at the end.  We could see Philly starting 5-5 and being right there in the playoff hunt going into their bye week.  If Vick is still healthy, then the Eagles could still have a chance.  If he is banged up, then the last six games could be ugly.  A 5-5 start could easily become a 1-5 ending for a 6-10 record.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC East

East

Color

Red

Green

Blue

Dallas Cowboys

Dark Blue

0

33

71

 

Metallic Silver Blue

130

138

135

 

White

255

255

255

New York Giants

Dark Blue

11

34

101

 

Red

167

25

48

 

White

255

255

255

Philadelphia Eagles

Midnight Green

0

73

83

 

Black

17

28

36

 

Metallic Silver

130

138

135

Washington Redskins

Burgundy

130

36

51

 

Gold

255

182

18

 

White

255

255

255

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New York Giants

106.6

105.8

105.2

9-7-0

429

344

Washington Redskins

102.7

103.8

104.6

10-6-0

436

388

Dallas Cowboys

99.2

99.3

99.4

8-8-0

376

400

Philadelphia Eagles

91.7

90.8

90.2

4-12-0

280

444

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New York Giants

101.7

102.0

100.8

Dallas Cowboys

100.3

102.1

100.2

Washington Redskins

100.0

99.6

99.3

Philadelphia Eagles

94.4

95.1

94.0

 

PiRate Previews

 

Team

Dallas Cowboys

               
Head Coach

Jason Garrett

O-Coord.

Bill Callahan

D-Coord.

Monte Kiffin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Tony Romo

Running Back

DeMarco Murray

Wide Receiver

Dez Bryant

Wide Receiver

Miles Austin

Wide Receiver

Terrance Williams

Tight End

Jason Witten

Left Tackle

Tyron Smith

Left Guard

Nate Livings

Center

Travis Frederick

Right Guard

Mackenzy Bernadeau

Right Tackle

Doug Free

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Anthony Spencer

Left Tackle

Jason Hatcher

Right Tackle

Sean Lissemore

Right End

DeMarcus Ware

Sam LB

Justin Durant

Mike LB

Sean Lee

Will LB

Bruce Carter

Left CB

Brandon Carr

Right CB

Morris Claiborne

Strong Safety

Barry Church

Free Safety

Will Allen

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Dan Bailey

Punter

Chris Jones

K-Return

Lance Dunbar

P-Return

Dwayne Harris

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

8-8

Division

2nd Tie

 

Team

New York Giants

               
Head Coach

Tom Coughlin

O-Coord.

Kevin Gilbride

D-Coord.

Perry Fewell

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Eli Manning

Running Back

David Wilson

Fullback

Henry Hynoski

Wide Receiver

Hakeem Nicks

Wide Receiver

Victor Cruz

Tight End

Brandon Myers

Left Tackle

Will Beatty

Left Guard

Kevin Boothe

Center

David Baas

Right Guard

Chris Snee

Right Tackle

David Diehl

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Justin Tuck

Left Tackle

Linval Joseph

Right Tackle

Cullen Jenkins

Right End

Jason Pierre-Paul

Sam LB

Keith Rivers

Mike LB

Dan Connor

Will LB

Spencer Paysinger

Left CB

Corey Webster

Right CB

Prince Amukamara

Strong Safety

Antrel Rolle

Free Safety

Ryan Mundy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Josh Brown

Punter

Steve Weatherford

K-Return

David Wilson

P-Return

Rueben Randle

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

9-7

Division

1st

 

Team

Philadelphia Eagles

               
Head Coach

Chip Kelly

O-Coord.

Pat Shurmur

D-Coord.

Billy Davis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Michael Vick

Running Back

LeSean McCoy

Wide Receiver

Riley Cooper

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson

Tight End

Brent Celek

TE/H-Back

James Casey

Left Tackle

Jason Peters

Left Guard

Evan Mathis

Center

Jason Kelce

Right Guard

Todd Herremans

Right Tackle

Lane Johnson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Cedric Thornton

Nose Tackle

Isaac Sopoaga

Right End

Fletcher Cox

Left OLB

Connor Barwin

Left ILB

Mychal Kendricks

Right ILB

DeMeco Ryans

Right OLB

Trent Cole

Left CB

Bradley Fletcher

Right CB

Cary Williams

Strong Safety

Nate Allen

Free Safety

Patrick Chung

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Alex Henery

Punter

Donnie Jones

K-Return

Damaris Johnson

P-Return

DeSean Jackson

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

6-10

Division

4th

 

Team

Washington Redskins

               
Head Coach

Mike Shanahan

O-Coord.

Kyle Shanahan

D-Coord.

Jim Haslett

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Robert Griffin, III

Running Back

Alfred Morris

Fullback

Darrel Young

Wide Receiver

Pierre Garcon

Wide Receiver

Josh Morgan

Tight End

Fred Davis

Left Tackle

Trent Williams

Left Guard

Kory Lichtensteiger

Center

Will Montgomery

Right Guard

Chris Chester

Right Tackle

Tyler Polumbus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Jarvis Jenkins

Nose Tackle

Barry Cofield

Right End

Stephen Bowen

Left OLB

Ryan Kerrigan

Left ILB

London Fletcher

Right ILB

Perry Riley

Right OLB

Brian Orakpo

Left CB

DeAngelo Hall

Right CB

Josh Wilson

Strong Safety

Brandon Meriweather

Free Safety

Bacarri Rambo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Kai Forbath

Punter

Sav Rocca

K-Return

Niles Paul

P-Return

Santana Moss

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

8-8

Division

2nd Tie

 

December 20, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 16: December 22-23, 2012

Big Games In Week 16

If you have a package where you can choose to view any NFL game and not just the few that your viewing area receives, you will want to tune in the following games this week.

 

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh:  This is basically a wildcard playoff qualifier.  While both teams could mathematically still win the AFC North, chances are that the winner of this game will earn the final playoff spot in the conference.

 

If momentum is a key, Cincinnati has the edge, but when have the Steelers lost a game like this when their backs were up against the wall.  Just when a good team appears to be breaking apart, they always seem to come up with one more terrific game.  We believe the Steelers will win and go on to earn the sixth playoff seed in the AFC.

 

New Orleans at Dallas, Washington at Philadelphia, and New York Giants at Baltimore:  

 

The NFC East is the most interesting race of all.  Three teams are tied at 8-6, and by a quirk, all three still control their playoff destiny.  Dallas and Washington can win the division by winning two games, since only one of these two rivals can win two games (they face off in DC next week).  The Giants can clinch a playoff spot with two wins.  At 10-6, if they don’t win the NFC East, they will be a Wildcard.

 

Of the three contenders, the Redskins have the easy win game.  However, this is not a cinch win for Washington.  First, there is an issue of whether Robert Griffin III can play and if he can play anywhere close to 100%.  Kirk Cousins played admirably last week, but Philadelphia has now seen him on film and can better prepare against his strengths and weaknesses.  If RG3 does not play, this game becomes a tossup.

 

Dallas and New Orleans should light up the scoreboard at the Jerry Dome this week.  Drew Brees will pick the Cowboys’ secondary apart unless the pass rush puts him in jeopardy all game.  Can Tony Romo come through with a big game?  We think so.

 

The Giants have the toughest game, and this game is important on both sides.  We see this one getting ugly with a lot of hard hits and big defensive plays.  The Giants have been Jekyll and Hyde for much of this year, but then they won a Super Bowl championship last year following the same pattern.  The Ravens appear to have hit the wall, losing three straight games after started 9-2.  At 9-5, they are in jeopardy of losing the division title to the Bengals if Cincinnati wins out, and Baltimore loses to the Giants.

 

We think the Giants will win this game with Eli Manning having a big day against the fading Raven defense.

 

Minnesota at Houston: The Vikings are very much alive in the Wildcard race, but they must end the season with victories over two division title winners.  After the Texans, Minnesota must knock off Green Bay next week and then hope that the Giants and either Washington or Dallas do not finish 10-6.  Houston has shown an inability to stop good running games this year, and now they face the absolute best in the league.  If Adrain Peterson rushes for 125 yards, the Vikings have a chance to keep the ball out of Matt Schaub’s hands just enough to win the game.

 

Chicago at Arizona: The Bears are in danger of falling off a cliff for the second consecutive year.  They must close with two wins, or they will be home for the playoffs again.  Last year, Jay Cutler’s injury doomed the offense.  Cutler has missed some time this year, but even when he has been semi-healthy, the Chicago offense has done very little.  The defense cannot score two touchdowns every week, and Devon Hester no longer returns punts 80 yards for touchdowns.

 

Now, after a nine-week sabbatical, Arizona’s offense returned last week.  If the Cardinals play this week like they did against the Lions, you can say bye-bye Bears and bye-bye Lovie Smith.

 

San Francisco at Seattle: It may not be as important as the other games, because both teams will be in the playoffs, but this is the best game of the week and maybe the best game of the entire season.  If Seattle wins out to finish at 11-5, and the 49ers lose next week against a possibly resurgent Arizona, the Seahawks will be division champions and host at least one playoff game.  Nobody wants to play at Centurylink Field.

 

The 49ers are the only team that we feel is tough enough to win at Seattle, but the Seahawks look more like the 1969 Vikings and look invincible at the moment.  If you only watch one football game this week, this is the one.  It will be the most exciting game in years.  If you are old enough to remember the Kansas City-Oakland games of the 1960’s and the Oakland-Pittsburgh games of the 1970’s, then this is the type of game you should expect Sunday.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

105.9

104.9

104.1

103.0

3.5

Washington Redskins

102.1

103.0

103.6

104.0

2.5

Dallas Cowboys

99.6

100.7

101.4

102.0

1.5

Philadelphia Eagles

93.9

92.7

91.8

90.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

106.2

106.6

104.9

107.0

2

Chicago Bears

104.2

102.2

101.3

99.0

2.5

Minnesota Vikings

99.2

100.0

100.6

101.0

3.5

Detroit Lions

96.2

95.2

96.2

93.5

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

105.0

106.3

106.5

108.0

3

New Orleans Saints

101.3

100.1

98.8

98.0

3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

99.2

97.6

96.5

95.0

3

Carolina Panthers

99.0

98.9

100.1

98.5

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Seattle Seahawks

110.5

109.2

108.3

107.0

5

San Francisco 49ers

110.1

109.2

105.6

107.5

2

St. Louis Rams

97.1

97.2

97.2

97.0

1.5

Arizona Cardinals

95.4

94.2

96.2

92.0

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

112.1

110.4

106.7

107.5

1

Miami Dolphins

99.7

99.9

99.6

100.0

2.5

New York Jets

97.4

97.6

96.9

97.5

2

Buffalo Bills

93.5

93.4

97.1

93.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Cincinnati Bengals

103.0

102.7

101.8

102.0

3

Baltimore Ravens

101.5

102.2

102.7

103.0

4.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.6

100.3

100.0

101.0

2.5

Cleveland Browns

95.9

97.7

100.3

100.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

105.1

105.8

106.3

106.5

3

Indianapolis Colts

95.6

98.7

100.8

103.0

4

Tennessee Titans

94.2

94.4

94.6

94.5

2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.2

90.2

90.3

90.0

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

110.1

109.8

107.1

109.0

3

San Diego Chargers

97.9

97.7

99.9

97.0

1.5

Oakland Raiders

90.6

92.1

93.1

94.0

3.5

Kansas City Chiefs

88.7

89.1

89.4

89.5

3.5

 

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

Atlanta DETROIT

5.8

8.1

7.3

11.5

4   

50 1/2

GREEN BAY Tennessee

14.0

14.2

12.3

14.5

13   

46   

CAROLINA Oakland

10.4

8.8

9.0

6.5

8 1/2

46   

MIAMI Buffalo

8.7

9.0

5.0

9.5

4 1/2

41 1/2

Cincinnati PITTSBURGH

0.9

-0.1

-0.7

-1.5

-4   

43   

New England JACKSONVILLE

21.4

19.7

15.9

17.0

14 1/2

48 1/2

Indianapolis KANSAS CITY

3.4

6.1

7.9

10.0

6 1/2

42   

New Orleans DALLAS

0.2

-2.1

-4.1

-5.5

-3   

51 1/2

Washington PHILADELPHIA

5.7

7.8

9.3

11.0

4 1/2

44 1/2

TAMPA BAY St. Louis

5.1

3.4

2.3

1.0

3   

43 1/2

BALTIMORE N Y Giants

0.1

1.8

3.1

4.5

-2 1/2

47 1/2

HOUSTON Minnesota

8.9

8.8

8.7

8.5

7 1/2

43 1/2

DENVER Cleveland

17.2

15.1

9.8

12.0

13   

44 1/2

Chicago ARIZONA

4.8

4.0

1.1

3.0

5 1/2

36 1/2

SEATTLE San Francisco

5.4

5.0

5.0

5.0

-1   

39   

N Y JETS San Diego

2.5

2.9

0.0

3.5

2 1/2

40 1/2

 

Coming Thursday afternoon: The PiRate Picks for the next wave of bowls and Week 16 of the NFL.

 

Coming Friday afternoon: The third installment of the PiRate Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs.

December 4, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 14: December 6-10, 2012

Playoff Scenarios

 

A F C East

New England has secured the AFC East title and has a chance to earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs if they can run the table, and Houston loses to somebody else besides the Patriots.

 

The other three teams have mathematical chances of sneaking in as wildcards, but to say they are slim is still overstating those chances by a large margin.  Buffalo could rebound to finish 8-8.

 

A F C North

This race became much more interesting with the Steelers upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore.  Now, the Ravens lead is two games and is no longer infallible.  We see the second place teams Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both winning their next two games, and they should both be 9-5-0 when they face off at Heinz Stadium in week 16.  The winner of that game will be playoff bound, while the loser will need help or be out of the picture.

 

The winner of that week 16 game could finish tied with Baltimore, but the Ravens hold the tiebreaker edge over both teams.

 

A F C South

Houston can secure home field advantage for the playoffs if the Texans win at New England and don’t crumble afterwards.  We see the Texans losing this week and possibly in week 17 at Indianapolis.

 

Speaking of the Colts, Andrew Luck and company are in excellent shape in the wildcard race, and with games remaining with Tennessee and Kansas City, we see this team winning at least 10 games.  They must face Houston twice in the final three weeks, but we believe they will split those games to lock up a wildcard spot.  If they could somehow sweep the Texans, Indy could still emerge as division champs.

 

A F C West

Denver essentially took over command in this division when they came from behind to beat San Diego.  The Chargers collapsed, and the Broncos have run away with the division.  We are a bit concerned about their game at Oakland, because the Raiders always have their A-game against the Broncos.  If they can top the Raiders, the Broncos can run the table and possibly squeeze into the number two spot or even the top spot in the conference.

 

N F C East

Hail to the Redskins!  Washington has bested its two key division rivals in back-to-back games, and now RGIII and his Capital Punishers look to grab a division title.  We think the Redskins and Giants will finished tied for the division lead at 9-7, and if that is so, Washington will win the tiebreaker based on better division record.

 

The Giants can never be counted out, but they are not hitting on all cylinders.  With Atlanta and Baltimore still on the schedule, Eli Manning may not be able to win three more games to clinch a playoff bid.

 

Dallas looks like a stereotypical 8-8 team.  Only if the Giants and Redskins totally collapse will the Cowboys sneak into the playoffs.

 

N F C North

This division has begun to fade rather than improve as the northern chill takes over in the old Black and Blue Division.  Green Bay and Chicago will decide who is the division champ and who is the wildcard when they face off at Lambeau Field in two weeks.

 

Minnesota still has a remote chance to be a wildcard, but at 6-6, the Vikings must win out.  Their final four games include tough road games against Houston and St. Louis, as well as home games against the Bears and Packers.  It’s not happening this year.

 

N F C South

Atlanta almost has home field advantage wrapped up to the Super Bowl.  The Falcons own a 2 ½ game lead over San Francisco and could secure the number one seed in two weeks.  That would leave Atlanta with two meaningless games, but that week 17 game could be very important.

 

The Falcons’ week 17 game comes against Tampa Bay, and the Buccaneers are fighting for a wildcard spot.  The Bucs have a shot at entering that game at 9-6, and then that finale becomes very important.  Tampa Bay almost has to be 10-6 to make it as a wildcard.

 

N F C West

San Francisco may be the best team in the NFC, but the St. Louis Rams believe otherwise.  At 8-3-1, the 49ers are almost a lock to win the division, but they cannot be considered an overwhelming favorite to advance to the Super Bowl.

 

Seattle proved they can win on the road with a key victory in Soldier Field over the Bears.  The Seahawks have three remaining home games and a road game against Buffalo.  The opportunity is there for Pete Carroll’s team to run the table and possibly steal the division title away from San Francisco, but we believe the Seahawks will lose at least one time and have to settle for the wildcard.

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Houston

3. Denver

4. Baltimore

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. San Francisco

3. Green Bay

4. Washington

5. Seattle

6. Chicago

 

Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at Denver

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Chicago at Green Bay

Seattle at Washington

 

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh at New England

Denver at Houston

Seattle at Atlanta

Green Bay at San Francisco

 

Conference Championship

Denver at New England

San Francisco at Atlanta

 

Super Bowl

New England vs. Atlanta

 

New England wins Super Bowl

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 105.9 104.7 104.1 103.5 3
Washington Redskins 100.5 101.1 101.4 102.0 2
Dallas Cowboys 98.8 99.3 99.5 100.0 1.5
Philadelphia Eagles 93.6 92.5 92.0 91.5 3.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 106.2 104.6 103.7 103.0 2.5
Green Bay Packers 105.4 103.9 101.8 102.5 2.5
Detroit Lions 98.5 97.5 98.5 96.5 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.7 97.7 98.1 99.0 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.6 106.8 106.6 108.5 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.2 101.5 99.7 101.0 2.5
New Orleans Saints 101.5 100.9 100.8 100.5 2.5
Carolina Panthers 94.5 94.2 96.2 94.0 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.3 107.1 104.2 106.0 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 104.4 104.3 104.3 104.5 5
St. Louis Rams 97.8 98.5 98.8 99.5 3.5
Arizona Cardinals 96.6 94.6 95.9 92.5 2
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 111.2 109.4 106.0 107.5 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.9 98.8 98.6 99.0 1.5
New York Jets 97.9 96.9 96.2 96.0 2
Buffalo Bills 96.7 97.7 101.0 99.0 3.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 103.6 104.4 104.8 105.5 4.5
Cincinnati Bengals 102.6 103.1 103.2 104.0 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.7 103.1 102.6 105.0 4
Cleveland Browns 95.6 96.1 97.8 97.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.8 108.3 108.5 109.0 3
Indianapolis Colts 95.6 99.4 101.3 104.0 4.5
Tennessee Titans 93.5 93.9 94.0 94.5 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.2 91.7 91.9 92.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 108.3 108.1 105.9 108.0 3
San Diego Chargers 98.0 97.4 99.2 97.0 2.5
Kansas City Chiefs 90.8 91.0 91.1 91.5 2.5
Oakland Raiders 90.0 91.5 92.3 93.5 3.5

 

Here are this week’s PiRate spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Denver OAKLAND 14.8 13.1 10.1 11.0 10 1/2 49 1/2
Baltimore WASHINGTON 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 -2 1/2 47   
CLEVELAND Kansas City 6.8 7.1 8.7 7.5 5 1/2 37 1/2
PITTSBURGH
San Diego
7.7 9.7 7.4 12.0 NL NL
INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 6.6 10.0 11.8 14.0 5 1/2 48   
New York Jets JACKSONVILLE 6.2 4.7 3.8 3.0 2 1/2 38 1/2
Chicago MINNESOTA 6.0 3.4 2.1 0.5 3    39 1/2
Atlanta CAROLINA 9.6 11.1 8.9 13.0 3 1/2 47 1/2
TAMPA BAY Philadelphia 11.1 11.5 10.2 12.0 7    47   
BUFFALO St. Louis 2.4 2.7 5.7 3.0 3    42   
CINCINNATI Dallas 6.8 6.8 6.7 7.0 3    45 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Miami 11.9 10.8 8.1 9.5 10    39   
NEW YORK GIANTS
New Orleans
7.4 6.8 6.3 6.0 5    53 1/2
SEATTLE
Arizona
12.8 14.7 13.4 17.0 10 1/2 34 1/2
GREEN BAY Detroit 9.4 8.9 5.8 8.5 6 1/2 52   
NEW ENGLAND Houston 4.9 2.6 -1.0 0.0 3 1/2 51 1/2

 

September 27, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 4–October 2-3, 2011

An Interesting Phenomenon

After three games of the 2011 NFL season, in each of the eight divisions, a team that did not make the playoffs last year is either leading or tied for the lead.  In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills own sole possession of first place.  The Cleveland Browns are in a tie for first in the AFC North.  Tennessee and Houston are tied for the lead in the AFC South, and Oakland and Kansas City are tied for first in the AFC West.

 

In the NFC East, the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys are in a tie for first.  Detroit is tied for first in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is tied for first in the AFC South.  San Francisco leads the NFC West.

 

The only teams that made the playoffs last year to be tied for the lead in their division are Baltimore, Green Bay, and New Orleans.

 

PiRate QB Passer Formula Returns Next Week

Beginning next week, we will once again carry the PiRate Passer Ratings for the NFL quarterbacks. 

 

The official NFL Passer Rating is out-dated.  There are several different sabermetric methods to judge passer efficiency these days, and most of these new versions put the official version to shame.

 

Here is the official version the NFL uses:

 

I.      (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.     (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.    (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.    2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  For example, let’s look at Aaron Rodgers to date.

 

Here are his stats.

 

Completion Percentage         71.84

Yards Per Attempt               8.9

TDs Per Attempt                  .078

INTs Per Attempt                 .01

 

(71.84-30.0)*.05 = 2.092

(8.9-3.0)*.25 = 1.475

.078*20 = 1.560

(2.375-(25*.01)) = 2.125

 

(2.092+1.475+1.560+2.125)*16.667=120.9

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes a 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 inch line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one inch away from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8, which is 2.1 points less than Aaron Rodgers’ current rating!  Rodgers is not worth more than a 98-yard completion every time he throws a pass.

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds of protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completes a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consists of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with that back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 

Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 

Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 

In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 

Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com

 

For this example, we will compare two quarterbacks, Eli Manning and Tony Romo.  Manning has the better official NFL passer rating, leading Romo 104.3 to 95.8.

 

Here are the components for the PiRate Passer Ratings.

 

Manning: AYPA = 6.0  Int% = 2.35

Romo: AYPA = 7.4  Int% = 1.90

 

Manning = [6.0 * 7 – (11 * 2.35) + 105] * .8 =96.9

Romo = [7.4 * 7 – (11*1.90) + 105] * .8 = 108.7

 

According to our formula, Romo has been the better passer after three weeks of the 2011 season. 

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

 

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

New York Giants

105.6

102.3

103.2

3

Philadelphia Eagles

104.0

101.0

101.4

2

Dallas Cowboys

101.7

102.1

102.4

3

Washington Redskins

96.7

99.5

100.9

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Green Bay Packers

107.9

108.2

109.0

3

Detroit Lions

104.4

103.6

103.8

4

Chicago Bears

101.3

101.0

102.2

2.5

Minnesota Vikings

98.0

98.5

96.2

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

New Orleans Saints

108.9

105.6

105.5

3

Atlanta Falcons

103.6

100.7

102.4

2

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

98.9

100.3

99.7

2.5

Carolina Panthers

92.9

95.3

97.2

2

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

96.5

100.1

100.0

3.5

Arizona Cardinals

94.6

95.6

95.3

3.5

St. Louis Rams

92.0

90.9

89.2

1.5

Seattle Seahawks

91.0

92.7

91.8

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

New England Patriots

107.7

108.1

106.4

4

New York Jets

104.6

105.0

103.9

3.5

Buffalo Bills

100.0

101.9

105.4

3.5

Miami Dolphins

97.8

97.1

97.2

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

107.0

107.3

105.7

4

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.9

103.8

102.3

4

Cleveland Browns

96.3

96.3

97.5

2.5

Cincinnati Bengals

94.8

97.1

99.4

2

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Houston Texans

105.7

104.1

104.2

3

Tennessee Titans

99.1

100.6

100.4

3.5

Indianapolis Colts

97.0

95.4

92.9

2

Jacksonville Jaguars

93.9

94.6

93.4

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

San Diego Chargers

103.5

100.3

99.9

3.5

Oakland Raiders

99.4

101.6

102.5

3

Kansas City Chiefs

94.8

92.7

92.0

1.5

Denver Broncos

94.1

96.3

96.8

1.5

Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads.

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS

(n) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Week 4: October 2-3, 2011

 

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, September 27, 2011  8:30 AM EDT

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

DALLAS Detroit

0.3

1.5

1.6

3   

47 1/2

New Orleans JACKSONVILLE

12.5

8.5

9.6

7   

46 1/2

PHILADELPHIA San Francisco

9.5

2.9

3.4

6   

41 1/2

Washington ST. LOUIS

3.2

7.1

10.2

Pk

44 1/2

Tennessee CLEVELAND

0.3

1.8

0.4

-1 1/2

38   

Buffalo CINCINNATI

3.2

2.8

4.0

3   

44   

Minnesota KANSAS CITY

1.7

4.3

2.7

1   

40   

CHICAGO Carolina

10.9

8.2

7.5

6 1/2

44   

HOUSTON Pittsburgh

1.8

3.3

4.9

4   

45   

Atlanta SEATTLE

9.1

4.5

7.1

4 1/2

41 1/2

ARIZONA New York Giants

7.5

3.2

4.4

-1   

45   

SAN DIEGO Miami

9.2

6.7

6.2

7 1/2

45 1/2

GREEN BAY Denver

16.8

14.9

15.2

13   

47 1/2

New England OAKLAND

5.3

3.5

0.9

4 1/2

53 1/2

BALTIMORE New York Jets

3.3

6.3

5.8

3 1/2

40 1/2

TAMPA BAY Indianapolis

4.4

7.4

9.3

10   

41 1/2

December 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship.

So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today.

2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread.

We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact.

For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection.

We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition.

We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy.

Here it is:

We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose.

There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.  

Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18.

Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog.

Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10.

The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay.

If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15.

Here is our Christmas gift to you.

1. 13-point teaser parlay

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

 

Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one.

Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright.

Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times.

We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia 10 4 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6
NY Giants 9 5 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5
Dallas 5 9 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8
Washington 5 9 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4
Bitmap

 
                   
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 6 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2
Chicago 10 4 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9
Detroit 4 10 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8
Minnesota 5 9 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 12 2 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2
New Orleans 10 4 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2
Tampa Bay 8 6 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3
Carolina 2 12 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 9 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0
St. Louis 6 8 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4
Seattle 6 8 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1
Arizona 4 10 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 12 2 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9
NY Jets 10 4 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8
Miami 7 7 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7
Buffalo 4 10 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Baltimore 10 4 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2
Pittsburgh 10 4 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5
Cleveland 5 9 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0
Cincinnati 3 11 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 8 6 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5
Jacksonville 8 6 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0
Houston 5 9 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2
Tennessee 6 8 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 8 6 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9
Oakland 7 7 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3
Kansas City 9 5 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6
Denver 3 11 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
       
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PITTSBURGH Carolina 18.7 20.7 20.4 13.5 37
Dallas ARIZONA 7.5 5.6 8.6 6.5 45
MIAMI Detroit 4.9 2.3 3.9 3.5 41.5
PHILADELPHIA Minnesota 16.1 13 15.4 NL NL
JACKSONVILLE Washington 8.2 5.1 8.6 7 45.5
ST. LOUIS San Francisco 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.5 39.5
TAMPA BAY Seattle 7.2 7.8 7.2 6 44
New England BUFFALO 12.5 10.6 13.2 7.5 44
CHICAGO New York Jets 4 4.1 4.1 2.5 36
Baltimore CLEVELAND 4.1 4.1 8.2 3.5 38.5
KANSAS CITY Tennessee 8 4.4 5.4 5 42
OAKLAND Indianapolis 1.7 0.5 2.8 -3 47
Houston DENVER 4.7 3.2 1 3 48.5
GREEN BAY
New York Giants 6 5.9 4.7 NL NL
San Diego CINCINNATI 8.6 7.4 8.6 7.5 44
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.8 6.3 6 2.5 48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 


Player Team G AYPA Int % PiRate
Tom Brady NE 14 6.8 0.89 114.2
Michael Vick PHI 11 6.6 1.52 107.6
Matt Cassel KC 13 5.8 1.31 105.0
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 10 6 1.49 104.5
Josh Freeman TB 14 5.7 1.42 103.4
Phillip Rivers SD 14 7 2.37 102.3
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8
Joe Flacco BAL 14 5.7 1.77 100.3
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5
Colt McCoy CLE 6 5.7 1.97 98.6
Matt Ryan ATL 14 5.2 1.76 97.6
Matt Schaub HOU 14 5.6 2.12 96.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7
Peyton Manning IND 14 5.6 2.46 93.7
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4
Mark Sanchez NYJ 14 4.6 2.55 87.3
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0
Jason Campbell OAK 11 5.1 3.05 85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12 4.9 2.97 85.3
Jon Kitna DAL 9 5.4 3.36 84.7
Drew Brees NO 14 5.2 3.33 83.8
Sam Bradford STL 14 4.1 2.71 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 8 4.5 2.97 83.1
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jay Cutler CHI 13 4.9 3.53 80.4
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0
Chad Henne MIA 13 4.7 3.48 79.7
Alex Smith SF 9 4.4 3.36 79.1
Carson Palmer CIN 14 4.4 3.46 78.2
Jimmie Clausen CAR 11 3.1 2.88 76.0
Eli Manning NYG 14 5 4.19 75.1
David Garrard JAX 13 4.6 3.96 74.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 13 4.3 3.86 74.1
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1
Brett Favre MIN 13 4 5.31 59.7
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7
           
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

December 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
NY Giants 9 4 0 329 250 107.1 105.4 105.6
Philadelphia  9 4 0 374 308 107.0 105.4 105.6
Dallas  4 9 0 321 366 99.0 99.8 99.9
Washington  5 8 0 238 310 93.6 95.8 92.6
 NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 5 0 306 189 108.6 106.7 105.0
Chicago 9 4 0 253 228 101.6 101.7 103.2
Minnesota 5 8 0 230 274 97.3 98.4 97.5
Detroit 3 10 0 285 309 96.5 98.1 94.8
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 11 2 0 335 243 106.9 106.1 107.5
New Orleans 10 3 0 330 240 106.3 105.0 106.6
Tampa Bay 8 5 0 260 267 99.4 99.9 101.2
Carolina 1 12 0 164 338 90.3 88.9 89.4
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 8 0 243 280 98.2 97.1 99.8
St. Louis 6 7 0 245 268 96.5 95.7 98.0
Seattle 6 7 0 261 329 94.2 93.7 96.5
Arizona 4 9 0 243 351 88.4 91.3 92.5
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 11 2 0 415 276 113.1 111.8 111.1
NY Jets 9 4 0 273 242 101.6 101.1 102.5
Miami 7 6 0 225 244 101.2 101.4 101.9
Buffalo 3 10 0 256 339 97.3 97.1 96.0
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 10 3 0 290 198 106.4 106.2 107.4
Baltimore 9 4 0 294 229 106.3 104.8 105.4
Cleveland 5 8 0 235 252 99.9 99.1 96.9
Cincinnati 2 11 0 262 345 95.0 95.1 93.9
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 7 6 0 347 318 100.7 101.3 101.7
Houston 5 8 0 316 355 100.2 100.0 99.0
Jacksonville 8 5 0 295 331 99.6 99.8 101.8
Tennessee 5 8 0 291 265 93.9 97.8 93.7
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 7 6 0 354 253 105.3 105.9 104.2
Oakland 6 7 0 314 307 99.2 99.1 99.8
Kansas City 8 5 0 295 268 98.1 98.6 99.5
Denver 3 10 0 269 376 91.7 92.3 89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads  
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
               
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday            
               
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals  
SAN DIEGO San Francisco 11.1 12.8 8.4 8 1/2 44 1/2  
ST. LOUIS Kansas City 1.4 0.1 2.5 NL NL  
Houston TENNESSEE 3.3 -0.8 2.3 -1 1/2 47     
INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville 4.1 4.5 2.9 5    48 1/2  
CAROLINA Arizona 4.9 0.6 -0.1 2 1/2 37 1/2  
Cleveland CINCINNATI 1.9 1.0 3.0 -2    40     
MIAMI Buffalo 5.9 6.3 7.9 5 1/2 41     
NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 3.1 3.0 3.0 2 1/2 46     
DALLAS Washington 8.4 7.0 10.3 6    45     
TAMPA BAY Detroit 4.9 3.8 8.4 6    43     
BALTIMORE New Orleans 3.0 2.8 1.8 2    43 1/2  
Atlanta SEATTLE 8.7 8.4 7.0 6    45     
PITTSBURGH New York Jets 8.8 9.1 8.9 6    35 1/2  
OAKLAND   Denver 10.5 9.8 13.1 6 1/2 44     
NEW ENGLAND Green Bay 7.5 8.1 9.1 NL NL  
Chicago MINNESOTA 1.3 0.3 2.7 NL NL  
               
PiRate Passer # 

Player

Team G AYPA Int% PiRate #    
Tom Brady NE 13 6.9 0.94 114.4    
Michael Vick PHI 10 6.8 1.36 110.1    
Matt Cassel KC 12 5.9 1.13 107.1    
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 9 6.2 1.72 103.6    
Josh Freeman TB 13 5.6 1.54 101.8    
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8    
Phillip Rivers SD 13 6.8 2.51 100.0    
Joe Flacco BAL 13 5.7 1.86 99.6    
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5    
Matt Ryan ATL 13 5.3 1.68 98.9    
Matt Schaub HOU 13 5.8 2.15 97.6    
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7    
Troy Smith SF 5 5.6 2.38 94.4    
Colt McCoy CLE 5 5.4 2.36 93.5    
Peyton Manning IND 13 5.6 2.63 92.2    
Jason Campbell OAK 10 5 2.54 89.6    
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4    
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0    
Mark Sanchez NYJ 13 4.6 2.72 85.8    
Sam Bradford STL 13 4.3 2.53 85.8    
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 11 4.8 2.91 85.3    
Drew Brees NO 13 5.3 3.43 83.5    
Kerry Collins TEN 7 4.3 2.81 83.4    
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9    
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1    
Jay Cutler CHI 12 4.9 3.49 80.7    
Alex Smith SF 8 4.6 3.35 80.3    
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0    
Jon Kitna DAL 8 5.1 3.83 78.8    
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12 4.6 3.55 78.6    
Chad Henne MIA 12 4.7 3.63 78.4    
Carson Palmer CIN 13 4.2 3.62 75.6    
Eli Manning NYG 13 4.9 4.34 73.3    
David Garrard JAX 12 4.4 4.14 72.2    
Jimmie Clausen CAR 10 2.8 3.13 72.2    
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4    
Brett Favre MIN 12 4.1 5.13 61.8    
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1    
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7    
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8    
   
   
                           

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

November 30, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                       
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 4 0 310 257 106.6 105.7 105.8 2
NY Giants 7 4 0 277 240 103.3 102.5 103.3 2
Dallas 3 8 0 256 301 96.8 98.9 99.5 2
Washington
5 6 0 215 262 96.3 97.1 96.1 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Green Bay 7 4 0 269 166 109.9 109.9 106.8 3
Chicago 8 3 0 222 172 103.3 103.4 104.7 4
Minnesota 4 7 0 189 239 97.1 99.0 99.6 3
Detroit 2 9 0 258 282 95.0 96.7 93.9 4
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Atlanta 9 2 0 276 209 106.3 105.3 106.9 4
New Orleans 8 3 0 265 197 105.8 104.5 106.6 2
Tampa Bay 7 4 0 219 223 99.1 99.0 100.6 2
Carolina 1 10 0 140 276 92.7 90.0 90.3 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Francisco 4 7 0 187 225 97.2 95.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 5 6 0 213 231 95.2 94.5 97.1 4
Seattle 5 6 0 209 275 93.9 92.5 95.3 3
Arizona 3 8 0 194 319 88.0 88.3 89.7 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
New England 9 2 0 334 266 107.8 107.0 107.5 3
NY Jets 9 2 0 264 187 106.3 105.5 106.3 2
Miami 6 5 0 205 225 102.3 101.3 102.3 3
Buffalo 2 9 0 229 295 97.7 97.1 97.0 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Baltimore 8 3 0 250 188 107.4 105.9 106.1 4
Pittsburgh 8 3 0 254 181 105.0 105.7 104.9 2
Cleveland 4 7 0 216 229 98.6 99.5 98.2 4
Cincinnati 2 9 0 225 288 95.0 95.5 91.3 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Indianapolis 6 5 0 282 252 102.9 102.9 102.2 4
Houston 5 6 0 264 287 100.6 100.3 99.4 2
Tennessee 5 6 0 257 218 96.7 102.1 96.5 4
Jacksonville 6 5 0 240 294 96.6 96.5 98.4 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Diego 6 5 0 310 225 106.9 106.2 104.2 4
Kansas City 7 4 0 285 231 100.2 100.2 101.1 4
Oakland 5 6 0 255 256 96.3 96.4 97.7 2
Denver 3 8 0 250 323 93.6 95.2 92.2 2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PHILADELPHIA Houston 8.0 7.4 8.4 8 1/2 51 1/2
MINNESOTA Buffalo 2.4 4.9 5.6 6    44 1/2
MIAMI Cleveland 6.7 4.8 7.1 4 1/2 42 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 4.1 9.6 2.1 NL NL
KANSAS CITY Denver 10.6 9.0 12.9 8 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Washington 9.0 7.4 9.2 7    43   
Chicago DETROIT 4.3 2.7 6.8 3 1/2 44 1/2
GREEN BAY San Francisco 15.7 17.5 11.5 9 1/2 42   
New Orleans CINCINNATI 7.8 6.0 12.3 6 1/2 46 1/2
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 5.2 4.3 4.3 3    44 1/2
SAN DIEGO Oakland 14.6 13.8 10.5 12 1/2 45 1/2
SEATTLE Carolina 4.2 5.5 8.0 6    39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Dallas 10.1 8.0 6.7 5 1/2 47 1/2
St. Louis  

ARIZONA
3.2 2.2 3.4 3    43   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.4 4.2 5.2 3    40   
NEW ENGLAND New York Jets 4.5 4.5 4.2 3 1/2 46   

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int %  #
Michael Vick Phi 6.8 0.43 118.3
Tom Brady NE 6.5 1.12 110.5
Kyle Orton Den 6.3 1.40 107.0
Matt Cassel KC 6.0 1.24 106.7
Matt Ryan Atl 5.6 1.23 104.5
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6.4 1.82 103.8
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.39 102.1
Josh Freeman TB 5.6 1.53 101.9
Vince Young Ten 6.2 1.92 101.8
Matt Shaub Hou 5.8 1.91 99.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 6.2 2.44 97.3
Seneca Wallace Cle 5.4 2.00 96.6
Joe Flacco Bal 5.7 2.19 96.6
Peyton Manning Ind 5.6 2.26 95.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.20 93.8
Colt McCoy Cle 5.4 2.36 93.5
Sam Bradford Stl 4.5 2.18 90.0
Matt Hasselebeck Sea 4.9 2.56 88.9
Kevin Kolb Phi 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo Dal 5.7 3.29 87.0
Drew Brees NO 5.4 3.29 85.3
Chad Henne Mia 5.3 3.27 84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 4.8 3.03 84.2
Kerry Collins Ten 4.2 2.80 82.8
Jay Cutler Chi 5.0 3.42 81.9
Donovan McNabb Was 4.8 3.31 81.8
Derek Anderson Ari 4.2 2.93 81.7
Shaun Hill Det 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jason Campbell Oak 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jon Kitna Dal 5.2 4.00 77.9
Carson Palmer Cin 4.3 3.47 77.5
Eli Manning NYG 5.2 4.26 75.7
Jimmy Clausen Car 3.1 3.01 74.9
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
David Garrard Jax 4.3 4.42 69.2
Bruce Gradkowski Oak 4.0 4.43 67.4
Brett Favre Min 4.2 4.86 64.8
Matt Moore Car 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

November 23, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)                      
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 3 0 284 226 106.9 106.2 106.0 2
NY Giants 6 4 0 253 220 104.1 102.5 103.5 2
Washington 5 5 0 202 245 97.3 98.8 99.0 3
Dallas
3 7 0 229 271 96.3 98.8 99.4 2
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Green Bay 7 3 0 252 146 110.4 108.5 107.7 3
Chicago 7 3 0 191 146 103.0 102.8 102.7 4
Detroit 2 8 0 234 237 96.7 97.1 95.5 4
Minnesota 3 7 0 172 226 96.1 97.3 94.8 3
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New Orleans 7 3 0 235 170 106.3 103.8 105.4 2
Atlanta 8 2 0 256 192 105.8 105.0 106.7 4
Tampa Bay 7 3 0 209 206 98.3 99.6 101.1 2
Carolina 1 9 0 117 252 91.5 89.0 90.4 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Seattle 5 5 0 185 233 95.4 94.9 96.0 3
St. Louis 4 6 0 177 198 94.5 94.6 95.8 4
San Francisco 3 7 0 160 219 94.2 93.9 95.6 4
Arizona 3 7 0 188 292 91.0 91.3 91.4 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New England 8 2 0 289 242 106.1 105.6 106.9 3
NY Jets 8 2 0 238 177 106.0 105.0 106.1 2
Miami 5 5 0 172 208 100.7 100.5 100.0 3
Buffalo 2 8 0 213 276 97.2 97.0 96.2 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Baltimore 7 3 0 233 178 108.2 105.1 106.0 4
Pittsburgh 7 3 0 235 165 105.5 106.2 105.7 2
Cleveland 3 7 0 192 206 99.8 99.9 97.3 4
Cincinnati 2 8 0 215 262 95.3 95.8 93.2 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Indianapolis 6 4 0 268 216 105.6 104.5 104.8 4
Tennessee 5 5 0 257 198 98.9 103.4 100.2 4
Houston 4 6 0 244 287 98.4 98.4 97.9 2
Jacksonville 6 4 0 220 270 95.8 97.6 100.8 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Diego 5 5 0 274 211 104.2 103.5 103.7 4
Kansas City 6 4 0 243 207 98.7 99.8 100.6 4
Oakland 5 5 0 238 223 97.9 98.1 98.9 2
Denver 3 7 0 217 287 94.3 95.4 91.1 2
 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New England DETROIT 5.4 4.5 7.4 6 1/2 51   
New Orleans DALLAS 8.0 3.0 4.0 3 1/2 50   
NEW YORK JETS Cincinnati 12.7 11.2 14.9 9    43   
WASHINGTON Minnesota 4.2 4.5 7.2 1 1/2 43   
Pittsburgh BUFFALO 6.3 7.2 7.5 6 1/2 43   
HOUSTON Tennessee 1.5 -3.0 -0.3 NL NL
NEW YORK GIANTS Jacksonville 10.3 6.9 4.7 7    44 1/2
CLEVELAND Carolina 12.3 14.9 10.9 11    37 1/2
BALTIMORE Tampa Bay 13.9 9.5 8.9 7 1/2 41   
CHICAGO Philadelphia 0.1 0.6 0.7 -3    42 1/2
Green Bay ATLANTA 0.6 -0.5 -3.0 -2    47 1/2
Miami OAKLAND 0.8 0.4 -0.9 NL NL
Kansas City SEATTLE 0.3 1.9 1.6 1 1/2 44 1/2
DENVER Bitmap

St. Louis
1.8 2.8 -2.7 4    44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS San Diego 5.4 5.0 5.1 3    52   
ARIZONA San Francisco 0.8 1.4 -0.2 Pk 40   

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 7.2 0.00 124.3
Tom Brady NE 6.1 1.22 107.5
Kyle Orton DEN 6.2 1.55 105.1
Matt Cassel KC 5.9 1.37 104.9
Matt Ryan ATL 5.6 1.33 103.7
Peyton Manning IND 5.9 1.59 103.0
Vince Young TEN 6.2 1.92 101.8
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.5 2.14 101.6
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.55 100.8
Josh Freeman TB 5.7 1.72 100.7
Matt Schaub HOU 6.0 2.11 99.0
Joe Flacco BAL 5.7 2.12 97.3
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.3 2.08 95.3
Colt McCoy CLE 5.4 2.36 93.5
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.8 2.69 92.8
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 4.9 2.23 91.8
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Sam Bradford STL 4.1 2.39 85.9
Drew Brees NO 5.2 3.36 83.6
Chad Henne MIA 5.0 3.27 83.2
Shaun Hill DET 4.5 2.95 83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.8 3.16 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 4.2 2.80 82.8
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.9 3.35 81.9
Derek Anderson ARI 4.2 2.94 81.6
Carson Palmer CIN 4.7 3.30 81.3
Jason Campbell OAK 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jay Cutler CHI 4.7 3.69 77.8
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.8 2.90 74.2
Jon Kitna DAL 5.0 4.43 73.0
Eli Manning NYG 4.9 4.55 71.4
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 3.8 3.97 70.4
David Garrard JAX 4.7 4.67 69.2
Brett Favre MIN 4.0 5.20 60.7
Matt Moore CAR 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com
Older Posts »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.