The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 30, 2009

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl 43 Preview

Super Bowl 43 Preview

 

Do a little search on the Internet; read your local paper; listen to the radio; watch ESPN for hours.  You get the same positional breakdown of Super Bowl 43 in Tampa.  Every one of these breakdowns compare Kurt Warner to Ben Roethlisberger and determine which team has the edge.  Then, they proceed to do this for all the other positions.

 

Tell me something.  At what point in the game will Warner and Roethlishberger line up against each other on a scrimmage play?  I can only think of one time where they will be competing directly against each other, and that will be on the coin flip.  I don’t think we can determine much from that.

 

On this preview, we here at the PiRate Ratings will analyze the positions as the players actually line up against.  In other words, we will analyze Kurt Warner against the Steeler’s pass defense.

 

Let’s start with the usual statistics you see here each week.

 

­ The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average.

 

Super Bowl Ratings

PiRate:  Pittsburgh by 11.3

Mean:    Pittsburgh by 9.7

Bias:      Pittsburgh by 7.2

 

Game Simulations

100 Sims:            Pittsburgh 53  Arizona 47

Average Score:    Pittsburgh 27  Arizona 25

Outlier 1a Sim:    Pittsburgh 30  Arizona 10

Outlier 1b Sim:    Arizona 31  Pittsburgh 16

 

Las Vegas

Line:             Pittsburgh is favored by 6½ or 7 points, depending on the book

 

Totals:          Again, depending on the book, you can find the totals for this game at 46½, 47, or 47½

 

Moneyline:    If you want to take Pittsburgh, the best moneyline odds you can find are -210 on multiple offshore books, while the best Vegas odds are -220.

 

                     If you want to take Arizona, the best odds you can find are +200

 

Weather Forecast For Tampa

How about perfect football weather?  It should be partly cloudy skies, a light wind out of the east southeast (less than 10 MPH) with temperatures starting out around 65 at kickoff and dropping to around 60 by game’s end.  It will be a little on the humid side, and there’s always a chance of rain (about 10% or less).

 

The Matchups

 

When Pittsburgh Runs The Ball

 

Steeler Run Blockers

LT:  78-Max Starks           

LG:  68-Chris Kemoeatu   

C:    62-Justin Hartwig

RG: 72-Darnell Stapleton

RT:  74-Willie Colon

TE:  83-Heath Miller & 89-Matt Spaeth

FB:  38-Carey Davis

 

Steeler Rushers

TB:  39-Willie Parker & 21 Mewelde Moore

 

Cardinal Defensive Line

RE:  55-Travis Laboy

RT:  90-Darnell Dockett

NT:  97-Bryan Robinson

LE:  94-Antonio Smith

 

Cardinal Linebackers

Will LB:  58-Karlos Dansby

Mike LB: 54-Gerald Hayes

Sam LB: 56-Cheake Okeafor

 

This is not the Steelers’ strong point this year.  Against good defensive front seven’s, the run blocking has fallen apart and even broken down at times. 

 

The Cardinals have performed quite well against the run in the playoffs, but the run stoppers were average or a little better during the regular season.  I tend to give about three times more importance to the playoffs when diagnosing unit vs. unit comparisons.  Arizona won’t stop the Pittsburgh running game like Baltimore did, but I expect the Cardinals to give up between 80 and 110 rushing yards in this game.  The key here is how the defense will perform in short yardage situations, as the Steelers will try to run the ball straight up the gut and force Gerald Hayes to stop them.  One thing is for sure:  the Steelers will not run the ball at Darnell Dockett; look for them to run toward Travis Laboy and up the middle.

 

When Pittsburgh Passes The Ball

 

Steeler Passers/Receivers

QB:        7-Ben Roethlisberger & 4-Byron Leftwich

WR:       86-Hines Ward & 85-Nate Washington

WR:       10-Santonio Holmes & 14-Limas Sweed

 

Cardinal Secondary

LCB:              26-Rod Hood & 20-Ralph Brown

SS:         24-Adrian Wilson & 47-Aaron Francisco

FS:         21-Antrel Rolle & 22-Matt Ware

RCB:      29 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie & 27-Michael Adams

 

Here is where the game will be decided.  We have a rare Super Bowl game where both quarterbacks already sport Super Bowl Championship rings.  Roethlisberger is a better quarterback now than he was when he led the Steelers to victory in Super Bowl XL.  However, the pass blockers are not close to as competent as that 2005 team.  Big Ben has taken a lot of punishment throughout the 2008-09 season, and he will be facing a pass rush that is almost as good as the Ravens and Titans. 

 

The Cardinals will send a linebacker or two or three on a host of red dogs and combination stunts, and I expect Roethlishberger to go down at least twice if not four or five times.  There’s always a chance that he will be shaken up and miss some playing time.  There’s also a chance that he could throw a wild pass due to the pressure.

 

Rookie Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has been the secondary star of the playoffs for Arizona.  He will keep Santonio Holmes from getting open deep on the sideline.  The Cardinals safeties plus Gerald Hayes will offer little open space in the deep middle.

 

The key here is the health of Hines Ward.  If he is not close to 100%, then I believe the Steelers are in trouble.  Without him, their passing game falls below average, and I don’t think Pittsburgh can win this game with Willie Parker trying to emulate Franco Harris. 

 

Note: The 100 simulations did not factor in the health problems of Ward and assumed every starter was 100% healthy. 

 

When Arizona Runs The Ball

 

Cardinal Run Blockers

LT:  69-Mike Gandy

LG:  74-Reggie Wells

C:    63-Larry Sendlein

RG: 76-Deuce Lutui

RT:  75-Levi Brown

TE:  82-Leonard Pope & 89-Ben Patrick

FB:  45-Terrelle Smith

 

Cardinal Rushers

TB:  32-Edgerrin James & 34-Tim Hightower

 

Steeler Defensive Line

LE:  91-Aaron Smith

NT:  98-Casey Hampton

RE:  99-Brett Keisel

 

Steeler Linebackers

Sam LB: 56-LaMarr Woodley

Mike LB: 51-James Farrior

Mac LB:  50-Larry Foote & 94-Lawrence Timmons

Will LB:  92-James Harrison

 

Arizona‘s run blocking has improved by leaps and bounds in the playoff run.  Make no mistake about it; Edgerrin James has returned to form because he has had ample running room.  He is still relatively fresh as he didn’t get many carries during the regular season.  Think of a well-rested starting pitcher in the World Series.

 

Pittsburgh‘s run defense is close to the top of the NFL if not the best.  The beefy front three occupy a lot of space at the line of scrimmage, and they can keep the enemy offensive line away from their fabulous quartet of run-stopping linebackers.  I believe the Steelers will contain the Cardinal running game for most of the evening.

 

When Arizona Passes The Ball

 

Cardinal Passers/Receivers

QB:        13-Kurt Warner & 7-Matt Leinart

WR:        11-Larry Fitzgerald & 85-Jerheme Urban

WR:       81-Anquan Boldin & 15-Steve Breaston

 

Steeler Secondary

LCB:              24-Ike Taylor & 22-William Gay

SS:         43-Troy Polamalu & 23-Tyrone Carter

FS:         25-Ryan Clark & 27-Anthony Smith

RCB:      26-Deshea Townsend & 20-Bryant McFadden

 

This is going to be a great contest of strength versus strength.  Warner and his bevy of receivers are made much more potent by an excellent pass blocking corps.  Give Warner three seconds, and he can tear apart even the best secondary.  Fitzgerald and Boldin can stretch defenses out enough to open seams in the short zones and make the running game better as well.  Warner should pass for more than 250 yards in this game.  If he tops 275 and throws no interceptions, look for the Cardinals to be hoisting the trophy Sunday night.

 

The Steelers will try to unnerve Warner by throwing a bevy of blitz schemes.  They have the horses to get to him, but they will also leave themselves vulnerable to a big play if the Cardinals pick up the blitz and stop the pressure.  It isn’t wise to leave Fitzgerald or Boldin in single coverage.

 

All-in-all, I look for this to be an even match.  Warner will hurt the Steelers with his arm about half the time he drops back to pass, and the Steelers will defend the pass well the other half. 

 

Special Teams Play

 

I tend to downplay special teams play in the Super Bowl.  Usually, both teams are well-equipped to eliminate big plays if they have gotten this far.

 

There is a small chance that Arizona could capitalize a little bit here.  The Steelers have not covered punts or kickoffs all that well as of late, and the Cardinals have ample weapons to exploit any openings. 

 

Steeler punter Mitch Berger’s punting has left a lot to be desired in the last few games.

 

Both place-kickers are above average, and I see no real advantages here.

 

Coaching

 

Can Steeler head coach Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau find a way to stop the vaunted Arizona passing game in two week’s preparation time?  The answer is definitely a yes, but strategy alone may not be enough to actually stop it.  I could devise a plan to beat Lebron James in a game of 1 on 1, but that plan wouldn’t stand a chance if I didn’t have Marcus Camby or Kevin Garnett as my defender.

 

The Steelers have enough Camby’s and Garnett’s to slow down the Arizona offense, but their own offense may not be adequate enough to outscore the Cardinals.

 

Summary

 

If you have read this blog at all during the 2008-09 NFL season, you know we at the PiRate Ratings love to be contrarians.  It is the overwhelming consensus here that Arizona will pull off the upset and win a close game Sunday. 

 

In a majority of past Super Bowls, the team that strikes quickly with either early offense or a big scoring surge in the second quarter, is the team that wins this game.

 

Pittsburgh is more likely to try to force a 13-10 game, while Arizona may come out more loose and try to make this look like an AFL Championship Game from the 1960’s.

 

The way we see it here is that after a dull first quarter, the Cardinals will score double digit points in the second quarter and take a nice halftime lead.

 

At this point, Roethlisberger will have to take to the air, and the Steelers will begin to score in the second half.  Pittsburgh will have to win this game with a comeback in the final period.  We believe they will have the ball late in the game with a chance to win it at the end.

 

There are five of us here who contribute to this blog.  Two of us believe the Cardinals will win by a score similar to 28-24.  Two of us believe the Steelers will win by a similar score.  The fifth, who is the originator of this blog, believes this could be the first overtime game in Super Bowl history and could be decided by the coin flip and a field goal attempt.

 

The Infamous Ads

 

We’ve turned this section over to our E-mail friend Ari, who is an insider in the entertainment business.  Here’s what she wrote:

 

The $3 million for each 30-second commercial is a bargain in my opinion.  The entire world will be watching, and unlike any other time, many will purposely be watching to actually view the commercials rather than the programming.  The advertisers will gear many of their ads to the women watching.

 

My personal favorite most years has been GoDaddy.com.  They only advertise one day a year, and they put all of their eggs in the Super Bowl basket.  It has worked well for them.

 

I am a softie for animals, and this year Pedigree will air Super Bowl ads for the first time ever.  Without spoiling the ad for you, it involves exotic animals and why you should never own them.  It left me wanting more.

 

Coke and Pepsi will have an ad war in this game, but Pepsi already won when they anted up to keep Coke out of the entire first half.  I’ve seen both of their ads, and I think they will not deliver what they hope to deliver.  There is a remake of the old Mean Joe Greene football jersey throw from years ago, but this one involves a current Steeler player.  Don’t ask me who he is, since I don’t know anything about the teams other than Matt Leinart.

 

Denny’s has a couple of different ads.  One is really good, while the other is so-so.

 

GoDaddy’s this year has two different ads.  One will air depending on a vote by the public.  You will have to go online to see the “shocking” conclusion to see what happens with Danica Patrick.  Spoiler Alert:  Don’t count on the conclusion being what it’s hyped to be.  Danica isn’t one of Hef’s girls.

 

Heineken and Budweiser will have an undeclared war in this game.  Bud goes for the theatrics, while Heineken features one of my favorite actors, John Turturro, in a classy 30-second spot.  You have to “read between the lines” to “get it.”

 

The predicted winner of this years ads war might be Sobe.  They will air a 3-D commercial, and you will need to get yourself some 3-D glasses.  It will be the most talked-about ad on Monday morning, and regardless of whether the talk is positive or negative, you will still remember the Sobe brand name this summer.

 

Our thanks go to Ari for her candid comments.

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December 1, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation: Week 13–December 1, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation League: Week 13-December 1, 2008

 

The Pro Football Computer Simulation League for 2008 uses a fantastic season from the past between 1981 and 2007 for each of the 32 current NFL Franchises.  It uses the actual 2008 NFL schedule and then simulates games between the past great teams.  Last year’s simulation involved teams from 1960 to 1979.  The 1967 Oakland Raiders edged the 1968 Dallas Cowboys in the Simper Bowl.

 

Here are the results of this week’s games:

 

2000 Tennessee Titans  24  1991 Detroit Lions  6

Jevon Kearse picked up two sacks and Frank Wycheck caught 5 passes for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns, as the Titans spoiled Thanksgiving for Detroit fans. 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Det

0

3

3

0

 

6

2000 Ten

0

10

7

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Det

Stat

Ten

 

 

 

 

11

FD

17

 

 

 

 

28-92

Rush-Yds

38-147

 

 

 

 

144

Pass Yds

168

 

 

 

 

13-23-1

Passes

15-25-0

 

 

 

 

3-19

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

7-47.3

Punt

5-43.6

 

 

 

 

2-11

PR

4-67

 

 

 

 

6-64

Pen

4-25

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

54

Play

63

 

 

 

 

217

Tot Yds

315

 

 

 

1992 Dallas Cowboys  27  2005 Seattle Seahawks  20

Emmitt Smith rushed for 136 yards on 22 carries and scored the game-clinching touchdown, and the Cowboys’ defense stopped Seattle on downs late in the game at the Dallas 28 yard line.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1992 Dal

7

10

10

0

 

27

2005 Sea

7

3

3

7

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dal

Stat

Sea

 

 

 

 

19

FD

15

 

 

 

 

41-196

Rush-Yds

31-87

 

 

 

 

174

Pass Yds

193

 

 

 

 

15-25-0

Passes

16-28-2

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

4-41.0

Punt

5-41.8

 

 

 

 

2-29

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

6-45

Pen

8-87

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

67

Play

60

 

 

 

 

364

Tot Yds

273

 

 

 

2004 Philadelphia Eagles  27  1998 Arizona Cardinals  7

Terrell Owens caught 5 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown, and the Eagles’ defense forced three turnovers, as Philadelphia cruised to an easy win.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2004 Phi

14

7

3

3

 

27

1998 Ari

0

0

0

7

 

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phi

Stat

Ari

 

 

 

 

20

FD

14

 

 

 

 

38-114

Rush-Yds

21-55

 

 

 

 

266

Pass Yds

168

 

 

 

 

19-32-0

Passes

17-36-2

 

 

 

 

1-8

Sacks

3-21

 

 

 

 

4-43.3

Punt

6-34.3

 

 

 

 

2-14

PR

1-7

 

 

 

 

3-20

Pen

5-45

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

71

Play

60

 

 

 

 

372

Tot Yds

202

 

 

 

 

1998 New York Jets  25  1998 Denver Broncos  24

Vinny Testaverde threw touchdown passes of 19 and 23 yards to Keyshawn Johnson and Bryan Cox sacked John Elway for a safety as the Jets upset the Broncos at the Meadowlands.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 NYJ

9

6

10

0

 

25

1998 Den

3

7

14

0

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYJ

Stat

Den

 

 

 

 

16

FD

17

 

 

 

 

42-163

Rush-Yds

25-103

 

 

 

 

152

Pass Yds

214

 

 

 

 

14-24-0

Passes

17-31-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-9

 

 

 

 

5-44.4

Punt

5-40.4

 

 

 

 

2-9

PR

1-12

 

 

 

 

5-39

Pen

6-55

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

66

Play

57

 

 

 

 

315

Tot Yds

308

 

 

 

1984 Miami Dolphins  45  1999 St. Louis Rams  42 OT

Dan Marino threw 5 touchdown passes including a 42-yard bomb to Mark Clayton in the final minutes of regulation to force overtime.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Stl

7

14

14

7

0

42

1984 Mia

7

7

14

14

3

45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stl

Stat

Mia

 

 

 

 

26

FD

27

 

 

 

 

31-127

Rush-Yds

29-88

 

 

 

 

365

Pass Yds

401

 

 

 

 

24-39-1

Passes

29-52-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-5

 

 

 

 

3-41.3

Punt

3-47.7

 

 

 

 

1-11

PR

1-(-1)

 

 

 

 

4-42

Pen

6-40

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

71

Play

82

 

 

 

 

485

Tot Yds

484

 

 

 

 

1991 Washington Redskins  17  1986 New York Giants  13

Earnest Byner’s 4-yard TD run with 2:11 to play in the game provided the Redskins with the winning points in a game played with first place on the line in the NFC East.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Was

3

7

0

7

 

17

1986 NYG

3

3

7

0

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Was

Stat

NYG

 

 

 

 

16

FD

15

 

 

 

 

39-143

Rush-Yds

28-77

 

 

 

 

158

Pass Yds

224

 

 

 

 

14-23-1

Passes

14-26-1

 

 

 

 

2-11

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

6-40.3

Punt

8-42.0

 

 

 

 

5-41

PR

3-23

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

3-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

55

 

 

 

 

290

Tot Yds

293

 

 

 

 

1987 New Orleans Saints  19  2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers  16

Mel Gray returned a fourth quarter punt 42 yards to set up the Saints at the Tampa Bay 31 yard line.  Six plays later Bobby Hebert used a QB sneak to score from inside the 1 yard line with 0:13 to play.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2002 TB

3

7

3

3

 

16

1987 NO

7

5

0

7

 

19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TB

Stat

NO

 

 

 

 

16

FD

16

 

 

 

 

38-149

Rush-Yds

26-96

 

 

 

 

157

Pass Yds

222

 

 

 

 

13-21-0

Passes

17-29-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-12

 

 

 

 

9-42.6

Punt

7-40.3

 

 

 

 

4-35

PR

5-102

 

 

 

 

5-50

Pen

4-31

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

59

Play

57

 

 

 

 

306

Tot Yds

306

 

 

 

 

2005 Indianapolis Colts  41  1987 Cleveland Browns  17

Edgerrin James rushed for 119 yards and caught 3 passes for 35 yards and a score, and Marvin Harrison hauled in 7 passes for 113 yards and 3 touchdowns.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1987 Cle

7

0

10

0

 

17

2005 Ind

14

13

14

0

 

41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cle

Stat

Ind

 

 

 

 

12

FD

23

 

 

 

 

18-55

Rush-Yds

39-181

 

 

 

 

174

Pass Yds

285

 

 

 

 

13-28-3

Passes

19-32-0

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

8-42.1

Punt

4-43.8

 

 

 

 

3-45

PR

4-35

 

 

 

 

5-35

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

3-1

 

 

 

 

47

Play

72

 

 

 

 

222

Tot Yds

460

 

 

 

 

1990 Buffalo Bills  30  1984 San Francisco 49ers  24

Thurman Thomas rushed 29 times for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Bills’ defense forced Joe Montana into 2 interceptions and a fumble on a QB sack.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1990 Buf

14

10

3

3

 

30

1984 SF

7

7

3

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buf

Stat

SF

 

 

 

 

22

FD

21

 

 

 

 

34-216

Rush-Yds

30-122

 

 

 

 

247

Pass Yds

211

 

 

 

 

19-31-1

Passes

19-34-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

3-46.3

Punt

5-42.4

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-11

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

65

Play

66

 

 

 

 

463

Tot Yds

320

 

 

 

 

1981 Cincinnati Bengals  13  2000 Baltimore Ravens  10

Pete Johnson’s 2 yard touchdown run in the 3rd quarter was set up by Ross Browner’s 33 yard fumble return.  The Bengals’ defense stopped the Baltimore running game.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1981 Cin

3

3

7

0

 

13

2000 Bal

7

0

3

0

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cin

Stat

Bal

 

 

 

 

18

FD

13

 

 

 

 

37-136

Rush-Yds

25-85

 

 

 

 

153

Pass Yds

142

 

 

 

 

12-25-1

Passes

13-28-0

 

 

 

 

2-19

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

9-40.2

Punt

8-36.9

 

 

 

 

1-5

PR

4-51

 

 

 

 

4-20

Pen

11-102

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

55

 

 

 

 

270

Tot Yds

212

 

 

 

 

1996 Green Bay Packers  34  1996 Carolina Panthers  13

Brett Favre completed a 74 yard TD pass to Don Beebe and a 58 yard TD pass to Antonio Freeman, as the Packers won a rematch of the 1996 NFC Championship Game.  Green Bay won that real game 30-13.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1996 GB

10

10

7

7

 

34

1996 Car

0

3

3

7

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GB

Stat

Car

 

 

 

 

19

FD

14

 

 

 

 

41-156

Rush-Yds

17-45

 

 

 

 

269

Pass Yds

220

 

 

 

 

14-25-0

Passes

19-34-3

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

6-45.5

Punt

7-41.4

 

 

 

 

4-53

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

5-33

Pen

4-35

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

66

Play

52

 

 

 

 

425

Tot Yds

257

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1998 Atlanta Falcons  21  2006 San Diego Chargers  20

Jamal Anderson rushed for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns to give the Falcons all the points they needed.  Atlanta stays in contention in the NFC South, while San Diego falls two games back in the AFC West.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2006 SD

0

6

0

14

 

20

1998 Atl

7

7

7

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SD

Stat

Atl

 

 

 

 

16

FD

17

 

 

 

 

31-116

Rush-Yds

42-192

 

 

 

 

183

Pass Yds

139

 

 

 

 

16-29-1

Passes

11-19-0

 

 

 

 

2-13

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

6-43.2

Punt

6-42.0

 

 

 

 

3-25

PR

2-24

 

 

 

 

5-35

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-0

 

 

 

 

62

Play

62

 

 

 

 

286

Tot Yds

324

 

 

 

2007 New England Patriots  38  2005 Pittsburgh Steelers  16

Randy Moss grabbed 5 passes for 141 yards and 2 TDs.  He took one quick screen at the line of scrimmage and ran 58 yards after the catch.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 NE

17

7

7

7

 

38

2005 Pit

3

0

6

7

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NE

Stat

Pit

 

 

 

 

18

FD

19

 

 

 

 

25-103

Rush-Yds

35-147

 

 

 

 

296

Pass Yds

179

 

 

 

 

21-33-0

Passes

14-27-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-23

 

 

 

 

3-47.0

Punt

6-41.8

 

 

 

 

3-43

PR

0-0

 

 

 

 

5-40

Pen

6-48

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

58

Play

65

 

 

 

 

399

Tot Yds

303

 

 

 

2003 Kansas City Chiefs  27  2000 Oakland Raiders  21

Trent Green rushed for 1 TD and passed for 2 others as the Chiefs won for just the third time this season.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Oak

7

14

0

0

 

21

2003 KC

3

10

0

14

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oak

Stat

KC

 

 

 

 

15

FD

21

 

 

 

 

22-90

Rush-Yds

28-95

 

 

 

 

177

Pass Yds

343

 

 

 

 

15-26-1

Passes

26-45-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

6-45.8

Punt

4-40.8

 

 

 

 

2-67

PR

3-44

 

 

 

 

8-80

Pen

4-36

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

49

Play

74

 

 

 

 

260

Tot Yds

432

 

 

 

 

1998 Minnesota Vikings  21  1985 Chicago Bears  17

The 1998 Vikings proved they belong in the playoff chase as they moved in to a tie for second just one game behind Green Bay in the black and blue division.  Chicago had the ball at the Minnesota 6 yard line on 2nd & 1 late in the game.  The Bears were unable to score and turned the ball over on downs at the Viking 2 yard line.  Jimmy Hitchcock’s 56 yard interception return on the first play of the 4th quarter proved to be the winning score.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Min

0

7

7

7

 

21

1985 Chi

7

3

7

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Min

Stat

Chi

 

 

 

 

14

FD

17

 

 

 

 

21-57

Rush-Yds

42-159

 

 

 

 

231

Pass Yds

147

 

 

 

 

16-28-2

Passes

13-24-2

 

 

 

 

3-17

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

7-46.6

Punt

5-44.4

 

 

 

 

3-22

PR

2-19

 

 

 

 

5-30

Pen

7-48

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

52

Play

67

 

 

 

 

271

Tot Yds

299

 

 

 

 

2007 Houston Texans  31  1999 Jacksonville Jaguars  27

Andre Davis returned a kickoff 102 yards for the winning touchdown after Jacksonville had taken a 27-24 lead.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 Hou

0

17

7

7

 

31

1999 Jac

3

3

14

7

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hou

Stat

Jac

 

 

 

 

19

FD

17

 

 

 

 

21-69

Rush-Yds

37-141

 

 

 

 

308

Pass Yds

171

 

 

 

 

25-43-2

Passes

15-26-1

 

 

 

 

4-25

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

4-41.8

Punt

3-42.3

 

 

 

 

1-11

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

5-39

Pen

6-45

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

64

 

 

 

 

352

Tot Yds

305

 

 

 

Current Standings

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation League

National Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1991 Washington Redskins

8

4

0

246

169

104.3

1992 Dallas Cowboys

7

5

0

247

254

99.2

1986 New York Giants

6

6

0

191

161

101.3

2004 Philadelphia Eagles

4

8

0

194

216

97.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1985 Chicago Bears

9

3

0

248

171

108.5

1996 Green Bay Packers

8

4

0

362

198

115.1

1998 Minnesota Vikings

8

4

0

329

247

109.5

1991 Detroit Lions

2

10

0

196

310

94.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7

5

0

230

199

102.8

1987 New Orleans Saints

6

6

0

245

228

102.6

1998 Atlanta Falcons

6

6

0

223

298

95.3

1996 Carolina Panthers

5

7

0

239

292

96.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1999 St. Louis Rams

9

3

0

338

281

103.6

1984 San Francisco 49ers

7

5

0

306

220

105.4

2005 Seattle Seahawks

5

7

0

223

307

93.9

1998 Arizona Cardinals

2

10

0

164

328

87.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2007 New England Patriots

8

4

0

393

275

107.7

1990 Buffalo Bills

7

5

0

325

260

103.7

1998 New York Jets

6

6

0

248

293

96.5

1984 Miami Dolphins

4

8

0

322

391

93.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Baltimore Ravens

9

3

0

164

160

98.1

1981 Cincinnati Bengals

6

6

0

219

222

97.5

1987 Cleveland Browns

4

8

0

189

281

92.2

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

2

10

0

178

245

94.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Tennessee Titans

10

2

0

279

118

112.4

1999 Jacksonville Jaguars

5

7

0

229

250

100.2

2005 Indianapolis Colts

5

7

0

274

305

99.4

2007 Houston Texans

4

8

0

257

348

93.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1998 Denver Broncos

9

3

0

355

251

106.5

2006 San Diego Chargers

7

5

0

287

251

101.5

2000 Oakland Raiders

4

8

0

236

284

95.2

2003 Kansas City Chiefs

3

9

0

265

395

90.1

 

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