PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 3-7, 2016

Time to Punt
We thought we would be a bit clever and go with a slate of longshots that if just one selection won, it would be a big “fake” payout last week. Alas, we came up a game short in every selection, and none of the parlays cashed a winning ticket.

We also decided not to play any NFL parlays last week, and as luck would have it, most of the favorites won, and almost any parlay we might have played would have won. Such is life. But, even had every parlay we selected won last week, our bank account would have remained the same. As we try to make sure everybody reading this weekly entry, we do this just for fun and never wager a penny. These days, when it is almost time to ask, “Brother can you spare a dime,” betting anything on anything would be quite foolish. And, when happy days were here again way back when, we didn’t want to part with any of that hard-earned money. Thus, the only real advice we can give is, “work hard, be frugal, and save for the future.”

In past years, we have offered our predictions about a once-every-four-year event that happens the day following the first Monday in November. We are totally unsure of what will happen, next Tuesday, so we will not go there this year. Our hope is that whatever happens Tuesday, that the nation will come together and realize that we all must pull the rope from the same side and not against each other, or else we might lose what took 240 years to put together.

Now, returning to football and mathematics, here is what we are going with this week.

College Selections
We decided to select a couple of underdogs to win outright this week, but we did not bundle them together for the almost 6 to 1 odds. We’d rather guarantee a small profit if just one wins rather than a windfall requiring both to win.

1. Oklahoma State +133 vs. Kansas State.
Our members here believe this is a 50-50 tossup, so getting better than 13-10 odds is a plus in this game. Oklahoma State seems to play up to its competition, while Kansas State has been quiet this year and has not really played what many believe could be its best game. Also, when a team pulls off a big upset at home one week and then goes on the road to face a quality opponent the next week, the opponent usually has a better chance to win. That is why we believe the Money Line odds are so high, and because we believe this Cowboys’ team knows the Big 12 Championship is possible, we believe OSU will overcome the trend and win this one outright.

2. Arkansas +174 vs. Florida
Everything we just said about Oklahoma State could apply to Florida this week. The Gators come off a big win over rival Georgia and now go on the road to face a quality team. There are two differences in this selection from the selection above. Arkansas had a bye week last week, giving the Razorbacks two weeks to prepare for this game. Also, Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen is expected to be near 100% for this game after suffering a knee injury against Auburn two weeks ago. Arkansas needs an upset win in November to guarantee bowl eligibility, and we believe a team like Florida is vulnerable in this game. An Arky loss could mean the Hogs would be 5-6 when they go to Missouri in the final game.

3. 3-team parlay @ +121

Wyoming over Utah State
Colorado over UCLA
North Carolina over Georgia Tech

Wyoming beat Boise State last week in Laramie, and the Cowboys now have the Mountain Division title in their crosshairs after being the consensus choice to finish in last place. Coach Craig Bohl might be positioning himself to be a top candidate for some Power 5 conference job openings. In the past, numerous former Wyoming coaches have gone on to bigger and better things, because winning on a state with miles and miles of open space and few high school football programs says that this coach is a great recruiter, great organizer, and great leader.
Just down the road in Boulder, Mike MacIntyre has the Colorado Buffaloes within striking distance of winning the Pac-12 South Division. UCLA is a wounded bear and limping to the finish with what looks like a losing record this year. Josh Rosen’s season-ending injury seems like Deja vu for the men from Westwood, as just about every great quarterback since Gary Beban seems to have suffered an injury at some point. We’ll go with the Buffs to win big in Boulder in a prime-time Thursday night game.
North Carolina had an extra week to prepare for Georgia Tech’s spread option offense. That is worth an extra 7-10 points to the Tar Heel defense, and UNC doesn’t need that many extra points to make this a comfortable win for Coastal Division co-leader.

4. 4-team parlay @ +180

South Carolina over Missouri
Virginia Tech over Duke
Temple over Connecticut
BYU over Cincinnati
South Carolina coach Will Muschamp was barbecued for his job at Florida, and a lot of fans and media thought his hiring at South Carolina was a mistake. The Gamecocks were picked to finish in last place inthe SEC East and overall by many sources, yet it looks like USC will become bowl eligible rather than settle in last place. To get to six wins, a win over struggling Missouri is a must, and we think the Gamecocks are not too cocky approaching this game coming off the upset of Tennessee.

Virginia Tech probably must run the table in the ACC in November to win the Coastal Division, because North Carolina might not lose another conference game. The Hokies hold the tiebreaker, but it probably won’t matter if they are 6-2. Duke can still get a bowl bid, mostly because they hold the number one spot in APR scores and would be the first team in the 5-7 sweepstakes if 5-7 teams are needed to fill bowl spots (expect at least 1 if not 3 to 5). Tech is plain better in this game and should win by double digits.

Temple coach Matt Rhule is one of the 10 best college coaches in America, and a bigger fish will eventually offer him a large payday to become their coach. It could be that Rhule will hold out until a certain big state school in the Keystone State has a job opening (for awhile that appeared to be ready to happen in 2017). The Owls are back in control of the AAC East with wins over the top three contenders in the division. A win at U Conn this weekend basically wraps up the division title for the second consecutive year.

BYU travels to the Queen City to take on a Cincinnati team that has dissension, and when a team is not on the same page, they suffer results similar to what the Bearcats are experiencing this year. We’ll go with the school playing as a team to beat the maybe more talented team on their home field.

4. 3-team Parlay at +117

Penn State over Iowa
Old Dominion over Marshall
Tulsa over East Carolina
Penn State is still alive for the Rose Bowl! Who could have imagined this a month ago when Coach James Franklin was on a very hot seat and not looking all that happy to be in Happy Valley? A win over Ohio State was a major shot in the arm for this once great program trying to find its way back from purgatory. If the Nittany Lions run the table, which they are capable of doing, and if Michigan wins out and makes the College Football Playoffs, the Rose Bowl could easily select Penn State as its substitute. Of course, this means that the home team must defeat a so-so Iowa team that hasn’t played consistently well this year after a great 2015 season.

Old Dominion has not been to a bowl in its short time in FBS football, but that is going to change this year. The Monarchs need just one more win to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is very favorable for as many as nine wins overall and almost assuredly eight. Marshall is suffering through a rebuilding year at 2-6 and still must play the four best teams in the division. We like ODU to become bowl eligible this week.

Tulsa was a dark horse candidate in the AAC West in the preseason–not to win the division, but just to become bowl eligible for a second year in a row after finishing 6-7 last year. Having to face Ohio State, Houston, Memphis, Navy, and Central Florida on the road would leave the Golden Hurricanes in a precarious position where they would have to all their home games just to guarantee a repeat of 6-6 in the regular season. Coach Phillip Montgomery has quietly installed the spread offense he brought from Baylor and has TU in line to win the West after the Hurricanes knocked off Memphis at the Liberty Bowl last week. The closing schedule is difficult, and the big game at Navy looms next week. In order for that game to really matter, Tulsa must win this week over a rebuilding East Carolina team that will give TU all they can handle, because ECU still holds very slim chances of becoming bowl eligible, and at 3-5, they must win this game. We’ll go with the home team and their big play offense.

6. NFL 3-team Parlay at +178

Kansas City over Jacksonville
Dallas over Cleveland
New Orleans over San Francisco
The 2016 version of the NFL does not allow us (or anybody else) to state matter of factly that any team is a sure thing to beat their next opponent. So, we will not tell you that these three favorites are so much better than the underdogs they are playing that this is almost free money this week. With the way things are going in 2016, chances are rather high that one of these weaker underdogs will win at home.

Jacksonville looked like an expansion team against Tennessee a week ago, so the Jaguars will probably play their best game of the season this week. However, the Chiefs are starting to resemble their teams in the last couple years where they get better and better every week, and their defense is creating a lot of offense with their takeaways.

Dallas is only a slim favorite against winless Cleveland, even though the Cowboys currently hold the number one seed in the NFC! The only sure thing in Cleveland this year is that the Browns will use as many quarterbacks as Terry Francona used pitchers in the World Series.

San Francisco looked terrific in week one, shutting out the hapless Los Angeles Rams. Since then, they have looked worse than Cleveland, while the Rams find themselves in contention for the playoffs. New Orleans began the year looking the exact opposite–like a team destined to lose double-digit games and maybe bring on regime change in the Crescent City. Now, the Saints are breathing down the Falcons’ necks, and it figures that Drew Brees and company should win this game by double digits.

NFL Preview for Week 4: October 1-5, 2015

The Best Ever Debate
Already this season, we have heard the sports pundits ponder whether Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or even Drew Brees is the best quarterback ever to play in the NFL. They cite touchdown passes, completion percentages, lack of interceptions, and a host of other statistics.

We are here to tell you that these pundits are only correct in whatever statistic they use. Aaron Rodgers may be the best QB at avoiding interceptions, while greats from the past, like Johnny Unitas don’t even show up in the top 20. Unitas comes in tied at 135th in this statistic, behind such current star Ryan Pickpatrick, er Fitzpatrick.

Does this mean that the greats from the past, like Unitas, Starr, Namath, Jurgensen, Van Brocklin, and others don’t measure up to today’s quarterbacks? Certainly, this is not the case. The way the game is played today compared to the way it was played 50 years ago is vastly different, and the rules today favor pass blockers compared to the rules of yesteryear. There was a time when blockers could not use any part of their hand to block. Today’s hand pushing would have been holding penalties in the 1950’s and 1960’s, and by the way, holding penalties cost a team 15 yards then.
As for interceptions, of course these numbers are lower today. When you throw half of your passes 7 yards or less downfield, many of them at or behind the line of scrimmage, interception percentages will be much lower than if you throw the ball more than 20 yards down the field.

Today, on 3rd and 20, more times than not if a QB passes the ball it will be a very short pass to a back or tight end hoping to find a hole and run to daylight. In 1965, on 3rd and 20, a QB would most assuredly throw the long bomb. An interception in this case might have actually been preferable to a punt. If a pass is thrown 50 yards downfield and intercepted with no return, it beats almost every punting situation. Rarely does a punt produce a net advantage of 50 yards.

Touchdown percentages are not usable for comparing quarterback talents either. Today, a QB is just as likely to pass at the opponent’s one yard line than for his team to run the ball. In 1965, all NFL teams used a halfback and fullback in the offensive set, and some teams still used a full-house backfield inside the opponent’s five yard line. The better teams, like Unitas’s Colts and Starr’s Packers ran the ball 85-90% of the time in the deep red zone. Of course, these greats from the past threw fewer touchdown passes than today’s QBs.

What about completion percentages? If you look at career rates, you will find Brees at the top. Just behind in the top 10 include Rodgers, Manning, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger. To find a QB that played before 1970, you have to go all the way to 80th place and Jurgensen. Unitas is tied for 124th. Not-so-great QBs ahead of these two Hall-of-Famers include Mark Sanchez and Rex Grossman. And what about Broadway Joe Namath? He comes in at 166th.

So, obviously, current passers like Brees and Rodgers are much better passers than Unitas and Namath, correct? Not on your life, this is totally bunk, and we will show you why.

First, the QBs in the days where offensive linemen could not use their hands, passers had to throw the ball away to avoid a lot more sack opportunities. Teams like the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, and Oakland Raiders were noted for having top-flight pass rushes, where they averaged 4 to 5 sacks per game. No team today averages 4 sacks per game and few average as much as 3 per game.

Here is the key to these percentages. Let’s say Unitas and Brees both attempt 30 passes in a game. Unitas’s passes come in a 1964 game, whereas Brees’ passes come in a 2015 game. Let’s break down the types of passes each QB throws.

1. Screen passes and other passes thrown short of the line of scrimmage
2. Short passes thrown 0 to 5 yards past the line of scrimmage
3. Medium passes thrown 6 to 12 yards past the line of scrimmage
4. Intermediate passes thrown 13 to 20 yards past the line of scrimmage
5. Longer passes thrown 21 to 30 yards past the line of scrimmage
6. The Bomb thrown 31 to 60 yards past the line of scrimmage

Now, let’s show how a typical QB from 1964 and 2015 might distribute these passes.
1. Screens and other behind the LOS: Unitas 3 Brees 6
2. Short passes: Unitas 2 Brees 10
3. Medium passes: Unitas 4 Brees 8
4. Intermediate passes: Unitas 10 Brees 4
5. Longer passes: Unitas 6 Brees 1
6. The Bomb: Unitas 5 Brees 1

We really need not explain any further. Unitas’s passes might have averaged around 20 yards in length, while Brees’ passes averaged about 8 yards in length. It is quite obvious that it is much easier to complete a pass thrown 8 yards past the line of scrimmage than one thrown 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Additionally, many of Brees’ shorter passes are 3rd & long dumps to secondary receivers thrown well short of the first down sticks, whereas in the days of Unitas, teams just did not throw short of the sticks on 3rd down.

Unitas may complete just 15 of the 30 passes in this example, while Brees completes 20 of the 30 passes. Yet, both QBs pass for 240 yards. What matters is how many yards per pass attempt each QB gained. In this example, both averaged exactly 8 yards per attempt, the line where everything better is considered exceptional.

Averaging more than 8 yards per pass attempt has been consistently brilliant, whether it took place in 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005, or 2015. Whereas all other statistics have varied over NFL (and AFL) history, this stat has been the one true correlation between success and failure.

Taken to the extreme, a Joe Namath or Daryle Lamonica type passer might complete just 45% of their passes, while a Brees or Rodgers might complete 67.5% of their passes. Namath and Lamonica might go 18 of 40 in a game, while Brees or Rodgers go 27 of 40. Namath and Lamonica might average 17.8 yards per completion thanks to multiple 40-60 yard pass completions (they didn’t call Lamonica the Mad Bomber for nothing). Brees and Rodgers might average 11.9 yards per completion. Guess what? In both instances, the total yardage gained is 320 yards or 8 yards per attempt. If you look at what 8 yards per pass attempt accomplishes throughout history, it is roughly 28 points per game, varying a little with rushing, defense, and special teams.
So, then, who is the best quarterback of all time? You guessed where we are going with this. Who ranks as having the best career yards per pass attempt?

The answer may or may not surprise you, but among the top passers in this category, there are 14 retired QBs eligible for the Hall of Fame, and 10 of these 14 are in the Hall of Fame. Of the other four, two are recently retired, and still might become a HOF member. Only Ed Brown and Earl Morrall rank in the top 20 in yards per attempt and are not in the Hall.

In Morrall’s case, he was frequently a backup to other Hall of Famers, like Y. A. Tittle, Unitas, and Bob Griese. When called on to fill in, he responded with two MVP-award seasons and an incredible won-loss percentage of 63.6%, including an outstanding 33-4-1 record when starting for a Don Shula-coached team (Baltimore and Miami). Morrall might have been a Hall of Famer had he not played behind three greats.

Brown is an interesting case worth researching. He was the quarterback of the 1951 University of San Francisco Dons football team that went 9-0 and was considered the best team on the West Coast with multiple future NFL players. Due to racist issues (USF was an integrated team), and because the available bowls of that time were all in Southern states, USF was not invited to a bowl, while inferior all-white teams received invitations. The Dons dropped football on that undefeated season.

Brown was drafted by the Bears and led Chicago to the Western Division crown one season with multiple second place finishes. He later was traded to Pittsburgh, where he led the Steelers to its best modern day season prior to the arrival of the Steel Curtain defense in the 1970’s. Brown’s career record as a starter was 55-38-5.

Now, just who has the best all-time yards per attempt mark? Did you guess Otto Graham?  Graham left a career mark of 9.0 yards per attempt. And, if you are wondering about the won-lost record for Graham, he is in a league by himself at 104-17-4 in his 10 seasons with the Cleveland Browns. In seven of those 10 seasons, Graham led the Browns to the league championship. In the other three seasons, Cleveland lost in the NFL Championship Game. Cleveland averaged 28.1 points per game in the 10 years Graham led the Browns attack. The year after Graham retired, after leading Cleveland to a 9-2-1 record plus a 38-14 pasting of the Los Angeles Rams in the NFL Championship, Cleveland fell to 5-7-0 without him.

When next you are asked who you believe is the best NFL quarterback of all time, you have your answer. Otto Graham was to football what Babe Ruth was to baseball and Wilt Chamberlain was to basketball.

Here is the entire top 20 list of quarterbacks by career yards per pass attempt.

#	Quarterback			Yds/Att.
1	Otto Graham			9.0
2	Sid Luckman			8.4
3	Norm Van Brocklin			8.2
4	Aaron Rodgers			8.2
5	Steve Young			8.0
6	Kurt Warner			7.9
7	Ben Roethlisberger			7.9
8	Ed Brown			7.9
9	Tony Romo			7.9
10	Phillip Rivers			7.9
11	Bart Starr			7.8
12	Johnny Unitas			7.8
13	Earl Morrall			7.7
14	Len Dawson			7.7
15	Peyton Manning			7.7
16	Roger Staubach			7.7
17	Dan Fouts			7.7
18	Sonny Jurgensen			7.6
19	Trent Green			7.6
20	Drew Brees			7.6

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	105.8	104.5	106.1	105.5	2-1-0	75	75
Philadelphia	103.2	102.6	103.4	103.1	1-2-0	58	63
N.Y. Giants	99.5	99.4	100.0	99.6	1-2-0	78	72
Washington	94.2	93.7	93.5	93.8	1-2-0	55	59
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	108.6	107.9	109.0	108.5	3-0-0	96	68
Minnesota	101.2	98.8	102.5	100.8	2-1-0	60	50
Detroit	100.8	99.5	100.3	100.2	0-3-0	56	83
Chicago	92.7	91.7	92.5	92.3	0-3-0	46	105
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	101.1	100.8	101.2	101.0	3-0-0	71	48
Atlanta	99.5	100.0	100.7	100.1	3-0-0	89	72
New Orleans	97.2	93.3	97.3	95.9	0-3-0	60	84
Tampa Bay	91.4	92.3	91.0	91.6	1-2-0	49	80
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	107.1	106.6	107.2	107.0	1-2-0	74	61
Arizona	106.9	106.0	107.6	106.8	3-0-0	126	49
San Francisco	96.9	94.5	96.6	96.0	1-2-0	45	93
St. Louis	95.5	97.1	94.6	95.7	1-2-0	50	67
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	109.6	110.0	109.8	109.8	3-0-0	119	70
Buffalo	103.5	104.4	103.6	103.8	2-1-0	100	68
N. Y. Jets	100.6	100.7	100.8	100.7	2-1-0	68	41
Miami	95.6	97.4	94.8	95.9	1-2-0	51	74
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati	104.1	104.9	104.3	104.4	3-0-0	85	56
Pittsburgh	104.2	104.4	104.4	104.3	2-1-0	76	52
Baltimore	103.7	102.8	104.1	103.5	0-3-0	70	84
Cleveland	93.3	91.8	92.8	92.6	1-2-0	58	72
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	101.3	101.7	100.9	101.3	1-2-0	56	80
Houston	97.3	98.6	97.1	97.7	1-2-0	56	60
Tennessee	96.1	95.8	96.8	96.2	1-2-0	89	77
Jacksonville	89.2	93.4	88.0	90.2	1-2-0	49	91
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Denver	107.0	106.5	107.0	106.8	3-0-0	74	49
Kansas City	100.3	101.7	100.6	100.9	2-1-0	79	89
San Diego	100.0	100.4	99.8	100.1	1-2-0	66	83
Oakland	92.5	96.7	91.6	93.6	2-1-0	77	86

 

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	4
Date of Games:	October 1-5
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	2.5	3.6	2.3
Miami (N)	NY Jets	-5.0	-3.3	-6.0
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	15.1	11.3	15.9
Buffalo	NY Giants	6.0	7.0	5.6
Tampa Bay	Carolina	-7.2	-6.0	-7.7
Washington	Philadelphia	-7.0	-6.9	-7.9
Chicago	Oakland	3.2	-2.0	3.9
Atlanta	Houston	5.2	4.4	6.6
Cincinnati	Kansas City	6.8	6.2	6.7
San Diego	Cleveland	9.7	11.6	10.0
San Francisco	Green Bay	-8.7	-10.4	-9.4
Arizona	St. Louis	14.4	11.9	16.0
Denver	Minnesota	8.8	10.7	7.5
New Orleans	Dallas	-6.1	-8.7	-6.3
Seattle	Detroit	9.3	10.1	9.9
(N) Neutral Site Game  in	London

 

2015 NFC South Preview

Rarely does a team win five fewer games than the season before and still make the playoffs, but the Carolina Panthers repeated as NFC South champions in 2014 with a 7-8-1 record following a 12-4-0 finish in 2013.  The Panthers won the division because the New Orleans Saints fell four games off their 2013 pace, the Falcons only improved to 6-10, and the Bucs ended up earning the first pick in the draft.

 

All four teams begin 2015 with key additions.  For Atlanta, it’s a head coach, as Dan Quinn becomes a head coach for the first time after putting together the great Seattle defense.  Carolina hopes it has plugged a leak in their offensive line with the signing of left tackle Michael Oher, while bringing in Ted Ginn, Jr. at receiver.  New Orleans added a cover corner in Brandon Browner, while Tampa Bay had the biggest addition of all–they have Jameis Winston, the league’s top pick.

 

This may be the most difficult division to forecast, as even the weak Bucs have improved enough and have the schedule to challenge for the division title.  Atlanta has the passing game and should be improved defensively, and since 8-8 could win the division, in theory, they only need to improve by two wins.  New Orleans’ defense needs improvement, and the Saints will have to score a lot of points this year.  Bear in mind that Jimmy Graham has left the building.  That leaves Carolina; can the Panthers three-peat?  Yes, it is quite possible, but in reality, this is a team that fell to a losing record last year, and a couple game slide this year could find the Panthers in last place.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Falcons Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Julio Jones
WR	Roddy White
WR	Leonard Hankerson
TE	Jacob Tamme
LT	Jake Matthews
LG	Mike Person
C	Joe Hawley
RG	Chris Chester
RT	Ryan Schraeder
QB	Matt Ryan
HB	Devonta Freeman
FB	Patrick DiMarco
Defense
DE	Vic Beasley
DT	Ra’Shede Hageman
DT	Paul Soliai
DE	Tyson Jackson
LB	Justin Durant
LB	Paul Worrilow
LB	Brooks Reed
CB	Desmond Trufant
S	William Moore
S	Ricardo Allen
CB	Robert Alford
N5	Jalen Collins
Special
Kicker	Matt Bryant
Punter	Matt Bosher
KR	Devin Hester
PR	Devin Hester

Atlanta Falcons
Head Coach	Dan Quinn
Off. Coordinator	Kyle Shanahan
Def. Coordinator	Richard Smith
2014 W-L-T	6-10-0
Pts	23.8
Opp	26.1
Ratings
PiRate	95.7
Mean	96.1
Bias	95.8
Average	95.9
Grades
Running	C
Passing	A-
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C-
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	7-9-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	13
Overall Rank	25
Postseason	No

 

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Panthers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Corey Brown
WR	Ted Ginn, Jr.
WR	Devin Funchess
TE	Greg Olsen
LT	Michael Oher
LG	Andrew Norwell
C	Ryan Kalil
RG	Trai Turner
RT	Mike Remmers
QB	Cam Newton
HB	Jonathan Stewart
FB	Mike Tolbert
Defense
DE	Charles Johnson
DT	Star Lotulelei
DT	Kawann Short
DE	Kony Ealy
LB	A. J. Klein
LB	Luke Kuechley
LB	Thomas Davis
CB	Charles Tillman
S	Roman Harper
S	Tre Boston
CB	Josh Norman
N5	Bene Benwikere
Special
Kicker	Graham Gano
Punter	Brad Nortman
KR	Ted Ginn, Jr.
PR	Ted Ginn, Jr.

Carolina Panthers
Head Coach	Ron Rivera
Off. Coordinator	Mike Shula
Def. Coordinator	Sean McDermott
2014 W-L-T	7-8-1
Pts	21.2
Opp	23.4
Ratings
PiRate	100.8
Mean	100.0
Bias	101.0
Average	100.6
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	C
Vs. Run	A-
Vs. Pass	C+
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C+
Predicted W-L	7-9-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	7
Overall Rank	15
Postseason	No

 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Saints Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Brandin Cooks
WR	Marques Colston
WR	Brandon Coleman
TE	Benjamin Watson
LT	Terron Armstead
LG	Tim Lelito
C	Max Unger
RG	Jahri Evans
RT	Zach Strief
QB	Drew Brees
HB	Mark Ingram
FB	Austin Johnson
Defense
DE	Akiem Hicks
DT	John Jenkins
DT	Kevin Williams
DE	Cameron Jordan
LB	Hau’oli Kikaha
LB	David Hawthorne
LB	Dannelle Ellerbe
CB	Keenan Lewis
S	Kenny Vaccaro
S	Jairus Byrd
CB	Brandon Browner
N5	Rafael Bush
Special
Kicker	Zach Hocker
Punter	Thomas Morstead
KR	C. J. Spiller
PR	C. J. Spiller

New Orleans Saints
Head Coach	Sean Payton
Off. Coordinator	Pete Carmichael
Def. Coordinator	Rob Ryan
2014 W-L-T	7-9-0
Pts	25.1
Opp	26.5
Ratings
PiRate	100.1
Mean	95.4
Bias	101.1
Average	98.9
Grades
Running	C+
Passing	A
Vs. Run	C-
Vs. Pass	C+
Special Teams	C-
Coaching + Intangibles	B+
Predicted W-L	8-8-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	10
Overall Rank	20
Postseason	Yes

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Buccaneers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Vincent Jackson
WR	Mike Evans
WR	Louis Murphy
TE	Austin Serferian-Jenkins
LT	Donovan Smith
LG	Logan Mankins
C	Evan Dietrich-Smith
RG	Garrett Gilkey
RT	Patrick Omameh
QB	Jameis Winston
HB	Doug Martin
FB	Jorvorskie Lane
Defense
DE	Jacquies Smith
DT	Gerald McCoy
DT	Clinton McDonald
DE	George Johnson
LB	Danny Lansanah
LB	Bruce Carter
LB	Lavonte David
CB	Alterraun Verner
S	Major Wright
S	Brad McDougald
CB	Johnathan Banks
N5	D. J. Swearinger
Special
Kicker	Conner Barth
Punter	Michael Koenen
KR	Kaelin Clay
PR	Kaelin Clay

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach	Lovie Smith
Off. Coordinator	Dirk Koetter
Def. Coordinator	Leslie Frazier
2014 W-L-T	2-14-0
Pts	17.3
Opp	25.6
Ratings
PiRate	92.1
Mean	93.4
Bias	92.0
Average	92.5
Grades
Running	D
Passing	C+
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C+
Predicted W-L	6-10-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	16
Overall Rank	30
Postseason	No

2013 NFC South Division Preview

2013 N F C South Preview

The South Division of the NFC was a one-team race last year with the Atlanta Falcons quickly separating from the pack and cruising to a six-game defeat of the other three teams.  It was expected after the New Orleans Saints entered the season with coaching suspensions.  By the time the Saints started to turn things around, it was too late.

 

2013 should be an interesting season.  The Falcons once again look like the class of the division, but of course with scheduling, they will play two other first place teams from last year, while New Orleans and Carolina face easier competition in those two games.  Tampa Bay also faces an easier schedule, but we do not believe the Buccaneers can rock the boat in the South this year.

 

Next to Green Bay, Atlanta has the best passing attack in the NFC.  Matt Ryan is quickly becoming one of the elite passers in the league, while Julio Jones, Roddy White, and the ageless wonder, tight end Tony Gonzalez, form a top-notch receiving corps.  If Steven Jackson has one more good year in his legs, the Falcons just may be ready to advance that final step to the Super Bowl.

 

New Orleans had the best offense in the NFC last year, by 25 points over the second best team.  On the other hand, the Saints gave up the most points in the NFC by 10 points.  Thus, the Saints finished 7-9.  Can new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan work magic on a defense that played like 11 matadors last year?  On top of the improvement needed, the Saints will switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment.  And, they will not get much immediate help from their draft class.

 

Carolina has enough talent now to contend for a playoff berth.  Cam Newton may not complete 60% of his passes, but he will average more per completion than average.  He will also be hard on enemy pass rushers with his ability to make them miss.  A nice defensive rush that might result in a sack on most QBs, could very well result in a 10 to 20 yard gain on a scramble.

 

The Panthers will have to get by without Jonathan Stewart for six games after he was placed on the PUP list.  DeAngelo Williams is starting to show his age, so the Panthers may struggle unless rookie Kenjon Barner can take up the slack.  The receiving corps is average at best, and the offensive line is better blocking for the run than the pass.

 

The Panthers should be improved this year because their defense looks much better, especially in the line and at linebacker.  Look for rookie tackle Star Lotulelei to be a key right away.  He won’t make 10 tackles a game, but he will command double blocks on several plays, and that will allow the linebackers to look much better.

 

Tampa Bay overachieved last year, and they still finished below .500.  The Buccaneers are average or below average at every unit on offense and defense.  Quarterback Josh Freeman won’t appear on the all-pro list, and he won’t get a lot of hype, but he can pass for 300 yards on many Sundays.  However, he tends to force passes and threw too many interceptions last year.  He will continue to stretch defenses with longer passes, because that will open up running lanes for second year star back Doug Martin, one of the biggest surprises in the league last year.  Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams make up a talented one-two punch at wideout, but the Bucs need more skill players to emerge.  The defense does not have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot this year.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the NFC South.

West	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Atlanta Falcons	Black	17	28	36
	Red	198	12	48
	White	255	255	255
Carolina Panthers	Panther Blue	0	136	206
	Black	17	28	36
	Metallic Silver	133	136	139
New Orleans Saints	Old Gold	150	130	82
	Black	17	28	36
	White	255	255	255
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Red	167	25	48
	Pewter	102	92	79
	Black	17	28	36

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp Atlanta Falcons 104.7 105.6 106.3 13-3-0 419 299 New Orleans Saints 100.7 100.2 99.9 7-9-0 461 454 Carolina Panthers 99.7 100.0 101.4 7-9-0 357 363 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 98.6 97.6 96.8 7-9-0 389 394

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta Falcons	103.6	106.6	103.1
New Orleans Saints	101.7	102.0	101.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	98.5	98.1	98.7
Carolina Panthers	98.4	97.7	98.1

 

PiRate Previews

Team	Atlanta Falcons
Head Coach	Mike Smith
O-Coord.	Dirk Koetter
D-Coord.	Mike Nolan
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Matt Ryan
Running Back	Steven Jackson
Fullback	Bradie Ewing
Wide Receiver	Julio Jones
Wide Receiver	Roddy White
Tight End	Tony Gonzalez
Left Tackle	Sam Baker
Left Guard	Justin Blalock
Center	Peter Konz
Right Guard	Garrett Reynolds
Right Tackle	Lamar Holmes
	Defense
Left End	Kroy Biermann
Left Tackle	Jonathan Babineaux
Right Tackle	Corey Peters
Right End	Osi Umenyiora
Sam LB	Stephen Nicholas
Mike LB	Akeem Dent
Will LB	Sean Weatherspoon
Left CB	Asante Samuel
Right CB	Desmond Trufant
Strong Safety	William Moore
Free Safety	Thomas Decoud
	Special Teams
Kicker	Matt Bryant
Punter	Matt Bosher
K-Return	Jacquizz Rodgers
P-Return	Dominique Franks
Predictions
Record	12-4
Division	1st

 

Team	Carolina Panthers
Head Coach	Ron Rivera
O-Coord.	Mike Shula
D-Coord.	Sean McDermott
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Cam Newton
Running Back	DeAngelo Williams
Fullback	Mike Tolbert
Wide Receiver	Steve Smith
Wide Receiver	Brandon LaFell
Tight End	Greg Olsen
Left Tackle	Jordan Gross
Left Guard	Amini Silatolu
Center	Ryan Kalil
Right Guard	Garry Williams
Right Tackle	Byron Bell
	Defense
Left End	Charles Johnson
Left Tackle	Dwan Edwards
Nose Tackle	Star Lotulelei
Right End	Greg Hardy
Sam LB	Thomas Davis
Mike LB	Luke Kuechly
Will LB	Jon Beason
Left CB	Drayton Florence
Right CB	Captain Munnerlyn
Strong Safety	Mike Mitchell
Free Safety	Charles Godfrey
	Special Teams
Kicker	Graham Gano
Punter	Brad Nortman
K-Return	Ted Ginn
P-Return	Ted Ginn
Predictions
Record	8-8
Division	3rd

Team	New Orleans Saints
Head Coach	Sean Payton
O-Coord.	Pete Carmichael
D-Coord.	Rob Ryan
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Drew Brees
Running Back	Pierre Thomas
Fullback	Jed Collins
Wide Receiver	Lance Moore
Wide Receiver	Marques Colston
Tight End	Jimmy Graham
Left Tackle	Charles Brown
Left Guard	Ben Grubbs
Center	Brian De La Puente
Right Guard	Jahri Evans
Right Tackle	Zach Strief
	Defense
Left End	Akiem Hicks
Nose Tackle	Brodrick Bunkley
Right End	Cameron Jordan
Left OLB	Junior Galette
Left ILB	Jonathan Vilma
Right ILB	Curtis Lofton
Right OLB	Martez Wilson
Left CB	Jabari Greer
Right CB	Keenan Lewis
Strong Safety	Roman Harper
Free Safety	Malcolm Jenkins
	Special Teams
Kicker	Garrett Hartley
Punter	Thomas Morstead
K-Return	Darren Sproles
P-Return	Darren Sproles
Predictions
Record	9-7
Division	2nd

Team	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach	Greg Schiano
O-Coord.	Mike Sullivan
D-Coord.	Bill Sheridan
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Josh Freeman
Running Back	Doug Martin
Fullback	Erik Lorig
Wide Receiver	Vincent Jackson
Wide Receiver	Mike Williams
Tight End	Luke Stocker
Left Tackle	Donald Penn
Left Guard	Carl Nicks
Center	Jeremy Zuttah
Right Guard	Davin Joseph
Right Tackle	Dernar Dotson
	Defense
Left End	Da’Quan Bowers
Left Tackle	Gerald McCoy
Right Tackle	Gary Gibson
Right End	Adrian Clayborn
Sam LB	Dekoda Watson
Mike LB	Mason Foster
Will LB	Lavonte David
Left CB	Darrelle Revis
Right CB	Leonard Johnson
Strong Safety	Mark Barron
Free Safety	Dashon Goldson
	Special Teams
Kicker	Lawrence Tynes
Punter	Michael Koenen
K-Return	Mike James
P-Return	Eric Page
Predictions
Record	6-10
Division	4th

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 6–October 16-17, 2011

Could Thanksgiving Day Become The NFL Equivalent Of Turkey Day 1971?

In our college ratings entry earlier this week, we discussed the various “Game of the Century” games since 1946.  We concluded that the 1971 Nebraska-Oklahoma game was the best of the best.  Could Thanksgiving Day this year prove to be the NFL equivalent of 1971?

 

Green Bay and Detroit both sit at 5-0 with five more games to play before they face off in Detroit on Thanksgiving morning.  The NFL has never had a contest of 10-0 teams.  The chances that both the Lions and Packers will both win their next five games are infinitesimal, but it is okay to look forward to that small possibility.

 

In 1990, the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers both started 10-0 and faced off two weeks later.  Unfortunately, both teams lost in game 11, making them 10-1 when they played.  The 49ers won that game, but the Giants won the Super Bowl.

 

In 1967, the Los Angeles Rams hosted the Baltimore Colts in the season finale, with the Rams entering the game at 10-1-2 and the Colts at 11-0-2.  The Rams won, knocking the 11-1-2 Colts out of the playoffs!

 

On Thanksgiving Day of 1962, the Lions were 8-2 when they upset the 10-0 Packers 26-14, after leading 23-0 at the half.  Bart Starr was sacked 10 times that day, but the Packers recovered to win out and take their second consecutive NFL Championship, while the Lions missed out on the Championship Game at 11-3-0 and had to settle for a Playoff Bowl win over Pittsburgh.

 

No Offense, But

Offense is dominating defense after five weeks in the 2011 NFL season.  The 32 NFL Teams are averaging greater than 370 yards per game and passing for more than 259 yards per game.  The average quarterback playing every snap, or close to it, will top 4,100 passing yards this season.

 

Tom Brady is on pace to pass for almost 6,000 yards, while Drew Brees is on pace to become the first quarterback to pass the ball 700 times in a season.

 

Wes Welker is on pace to catch 144 passes and gain 2,368 yards, while Calvin Johnson is on pace to catch 29 touchdown passes.

 

The average NFL team is scoring just over 23 points per game, which means it is taking more than 16 yards to score a point.  That number is quite high.  13 yards is the norm.

 

Keep Losing and We Might Get LUCKy

To the worst team in the league goes the first pick in the 2013 draft, and barring a devastating injury, that first pick will be the most important pick since the Indianapolis Colts selected Peyton Manning in 1998.

 

Andrew Luck has the capability of becoming the next Manning, next John Elway, next Tom Brady, and next Drew Brees. After five weeks, Miami, Indianapolis, and St. Louis are still winless.  The Colts should have Manning back next year, and he should be good for another two or three years.  The Rams have Sam Bradford, and even though Luck is better than Bradford, it would be like the St. Louis Cardinals trading away Stan Musial for Ted Williams.  The Dolphins need a quarterback, and Miami is a great location for a celebrity player of his caliber.  Of the one-win teams, Minnesota and Arizona could take an upgrade at quarterback, but they have large investments in Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New York Giants	102.5	99.2	101.5	1	3	–	2	–	0	127	123
Dallas Cowboys	101.2	102.8	99.2	1	2	–	2	–	0	99	101
Philadelphia Eagles	100.4	98.9	98.0	1.5	1	–	4	–	0	125	132
Washington Redskins	97.1	99.5	102.2	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	83	63
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	110.9	109.1	110.3	3	5	–	0	–	0	173	111
Detroit Lions	105.1	106.3	107.3	4	5	–	0	–	0	159	89
Chicago Bears	100.4	100.9	101.7	2	2	–	3	–	0	107	122
Minnesota Vikings	99.3	97.1	96.2	4	1	–	4	–	0	111	106
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	108.0	104.7	105.7	2	4	–	1	–	0	157	125
Atlanta Falcons	101.3	99.3	100.2	3	2	–	3	–	0	104	130
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	97.1	97.6	97.8	4.5	3	–	2	–	0	87	125
Carolina Panthers	94.6	95.6	96.0	3	1	–	4	–	0	116	132
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	102.3	104.1	103.0	2.5	4	–	1	–	0	142	78
Seattle Seahawks	94.5	96.8	95.5	3.5	2	–	3	–	0	94	122
Arizona Cardinals	92.0	94.7	94.8	3	1	–	4	–	0	96	121
St. Louis Rams	91.5	91.0	89.5	3	0	–	4	–	0	46	113
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	108.3	107.6	106.3	3.5	4	–	1	–	0	165	119
New York Jets	102.3	102.4	99.8	4	2	–	3	–	0	121	125
Buffalo Bills	100.1	103.3	106.4	3	4	–	1	–	0	164	120
Miami Dolphins	97.5	95.0	93.7	1.5	0	–	4	–	0	69	104
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	109.3	108.0	108.2	3	3	–	1	–	0	119	57
Pittsburgh Steelers	107.8	104.3	102.2	4.5	3	–	2	–	0	102	89
Cincinnati Bengals	97.1	100.9	102.0	2	3	–	2	–	0	110	94
Cleveland Browns	93.5	95.8	96.1	1	2	–	2	–	0	74	93
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	104.8	102.2	104.0	2.5	3	–	2	–	0	127	95
Tennessee Titans	100.1	101.1	102.3	3.5	3	–	2	–	0	105	94
Indianapolis Colts	96.0	93.5	92.7	2.5	0	–	5	–	0	87	136
Jacksonville Jaguars	92.3	93.9	92.1	2	1	–	4	–	0	59	115
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	103.6	101.3	102.0	2	4	–	1	–	0	120	109
Oakland Raiders	100.5	102.5	102.0	2	3	–	2	–	0	136	133
Kansas City Chiefs	96.6	94.8	95.2	1	2	–	3	–	0	77	150
Denver Broncos	92.6	95.8	96.2	1	1	–	4	–	0	105	140

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 6: October 16-17, 2011
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 11
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
GREEN BAY	St. Louis	22.4	21.1	23.8	15	48
PITTSBURGH	Jacksonville	20.0	14.9	14.6	12	40
WASHINGTON	Philadelphia	0.2	4.1	7.7	-1	47 1/2
DETROIT	San Francisco	6.8	6.2	8.3	5	46 1/2
ATLANTA	Carolina	9.7	6.7	7.2	4	51
CINCINNATI	Indianapolis	3.1	9.4	11.3	7	40 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Buffalo	3.4	-3.1	-3.9	3 1/2	50
BALTIMORE	Houston	7.5	8.8	7.2	7 1/2	45
OAKLAND	Cleveland	9.0	8.7	7.9	6	44 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Dallas	10.6	8.3	10.6	7	55
New Orleans	TAMPA BAY	6.4	2.6	3.4	4 1/2	49 1/2
CHICAGO	Minnesota	3.1	5.8	7.5	3	42
NEW YORK JETS	Miami	8.8	11.4	10.1	7	43

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 5–October 9-10, 2011

Faux Pas Logies To Our Readers

We here at the PiRate Ratings have to apologize to our readers for two mistakes.  The first one occurred last week, while the second one has been global.

 

Mistake #1: Three of you caught this and sent it to our attention.  We goofed on the Arizona and New York Giants Game.  If you saw our ratings, you probably noticed that the Giants should have been favored by 7.5, 3.2, and 4.4 points and not the Cardinals.  We hope that did not cause anybody any ruin.

 

Mistake #2: Our PiRate Passer Rating that we talked about had to be refigured.  One very astute reader—Robert in Boulder, Colorado, noticed from a past entry on our rating that we were using the AYPA stat found at Advanced NFL Stats and believing the acronym stood for “Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.”  We made this mistake due to reading one of their great blog entries about Air Yards.  Their AYPA is not Air Yards.  So, we had to actually create this stat from multiple data, and it wasn’t easy.  

 

Because of this oversight, we have had to tweak the formula a little to adjust the ratings so that the top passers will exceed 100.  The new formula is now:

 

[ ( Air Yards Per Attempt * 8 ) – ( Interception % *11 ) + 105 ] * 0.8,

Air Yards Per Attempt is (Total Passing yards – Receiver Yards After Catch) / Pass Attempts

 

Interception % is (100 * Interceptions / Pass Attempts). 

 

Here are the PiRate Passer Ratings After 4 weeks of the 2011 NFL season:

 

Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	PiRate #
Curtis Painter	IND	3.8	0.00	108.3
Aaron Rodgers	G B	4.9	1.42	102.7
Kerry Collins	IND	4.2	1.02	102.1
Sam Bradford	STL	3.6	0.66	101.3
Alex Smith	S F	3.8	0.93	100.0
Eli Manning	NYG	4.7	1.61	99.8
Michael Vick	PHI	4.5	2.33	92.2
Tom Brady	N E	5.3	3.07	90.9
Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	4.2	2.27	90.8
Donovan McNabb	MIN	3.4	1.80	90.1
Drew Brees	N O	4.1	2.30	90.1
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	3.8	2.07	90.0
Matt Stafford	DET	3.5	1.86	89.8
Matt Schaub	HOU	4.5	2.65	89.1
Cam Newton	CAR	5.0	3.07	88.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.1	2.48	88.3
Josh Freeman	T B	4.4	2.76	87.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	3.9	2.44	87.2
Colt McCoy	CLE	2.9	1.74	87.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.2	2.14	85.4
Kevin Kolb	ARI	4.2	3.08	83.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	4.8	3.62	83.0
Andy Dalton	CIN	4.1	3.23	82.0
Tarvaris Jackson	SEA	3.7	2.96	81.5
Tony Romo	DAL	3.9	3.29	80.2
Chad Henne	MIA	4.2	3.57	79.5
Rex Grossman	WAS	3.8	3.50	77.5
Jay Cutler	CHI	3.1	3.05	77.0
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	3.6	3.42	77.0
Blaine Gabbert	JAX	2.3	2.90	73.0
Kyle Orton	DEN	3.9	4.23	71.5
Phillip Rivers	S D	3.2	3.82	71.0
Matt Cassel	K C	3.4	4.50	66.4
Luke McCown	JAX	2.5	9.30	18.4

 

As you will note, Curtis Painter is currently in the lead, but that will change as soon as he throws an interception.  Had he thrown just one interception in his limited time, his rating would have dropped to 21^st place on this list.  That is why we like to wait until most QBs have thrown 100 passes before releasing this rating.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings by Division:

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New York Giants	105.3	101.8	102.8	3	3	–	1	–	0	102	87
Philadelphia Eagles	101.7	100.4	100.6	2	1	–	3	–	0	101	101
Dallas Cowboys	101.3	102.3	101.2	2.5	2	–	2	–	0	99	101
Washington Redskins	97.1	99.2	100.9	2.5	3	–	1	–	0	83	63
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	109.9	109.1	109.2	3.5	4	–	0	–	0	148	97
Detroit Lions	104.8	105.5	106.8	4	4	–	0	–	0	135	76
Chicago Bears	100.7	100.4	102.8	2	3	–	2	–	0	94	98
Minnesota Vikings	96.7	96.4	92.8	2.5	0	–	4	–	0	77	96
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	109.1	106.0	106.0	3	3	–	1	–	0	127	98
Atlanta Falcons	102.9	100.2	102.6	2	2	–	2	–	0	90	105
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	99.4	98.7	100.4	2.5	3	–	1	–	0	84	77
Carolina Panthers	93.5	95.0	97.6	2	1	–	3	–	0	89	102
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	98.8	100.0	100.9	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	94	75
Arizona Cardinals	94.9	96.6	95.9	3	1	–	3	–	0	86	87
Seattle Seahawks	91.7	93.3	92.1	3	1	–	3	–	0	58	97
St. Louis Rams	91.6	91.2	88.9	1	0	–	4	–	0	46	113
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	108.3	107.1	105.9	4	3	–	1	–	0	135	98
New York Jets	102.3	103.6	101.5	3.5	2	–	2	–	0	100	95
Buffalo Bills	98.8	102.6	104.7	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	133	96
Miami Dolphins	97.7	95.8	94.1	0.5	0	–	4	–	0	69	104
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	109.3	108.7	107.4	4	3	–	1	–	0	119	57
Pittsburgh Steelers	106.1	103.2	100.1	4	2	–	2	–	0	64	72
Cincinnati Bengals	96.0	99.6	100.1	2	2	–	2	–	0	80	74
Cleveland Browns	93.6	95.3	96.3	2	2	–	2	–	0	74	93
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	106.5	104.2	107.1	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	107	70
Tennessee Titans	101.8	102.2	104.9	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	88	56
Indianapolis Colts	96.5	95.5	92.3	2	0	–	4	–	0	63	108
Jacksonville Jaguars	93.7	95.0	94.0	2.5	1	–	3	–	0	39	85
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	103.6	100.8	100.2	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	91	85
Oakland Raiders	98.8	100.8	100.1	2.5	2	–	2	–	0	111	113
Kansas City Chiefs	96.1	93.5	92.4	2	1	–	3	–	0	49	126
Denver Broncos	92.1	96.2	97.1	1.5	1	–	3	–	0	81	111

 

Here are the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for this week’s games.

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 5: October 9-10, 2011
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 4 @ 8:30 AM EDT
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
INDIANAPOLIS	Kansas City	2.4	4.0	1.9	2	38
MINNESOTA	Arizona	4.3	2.3	-0.6	2 1/2	44 1/2
BUFFALO	Philadelphia	0.6	5.7	7.6	-3	49 1/2
HOUSTON	Oakland	11.2	6.9	10.5	6	49
New Orleans	CAROLINA	13.6	9.0	6.4	6	52 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	Cincinnati	0.2	-2.1	-3.6	-2 1/2	37
PITTSBURGH	Tennessee	8.3	5.0	-0.8	8	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Seattle	16.6	11.5	13.7	10	41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Tampa Bay	2.9	4.8	4.0	1	41
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	10.0	7.5	8.4	9 1/2	49
San Diego	DENVER	10.0	3.1	1.6	4	47 1/2
Green Bay	ATLANTA	5.0	6.9	4.6	5 1/2	54
DETROIT	Chicago	8.1	9.1	8.0	6	47 1/2

 Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, and Washington have byes this week.

The Pi-Rate NFL QB Rating

The PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3^rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 

Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4^th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1^st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side from 2009:

Player	PiRate QB Rating		Player	Official NFL Rating
Aaron Rodgers	108.9	|||	Drew Brees	109.6
Drew Brees	107.5	|||	Brett Favre	107.2
Brett Favre	106.7	|||	Phil Rivers	104.4
Tony Romo	105.6	|||	Aaron Rodgers	103.2
Phil Rivers	104.8	|||	Ben Roethlisberger	100.5
Ben Roethlisberger	97.9	|||	Peyton Manning	99.9
Matt Schaub	97.8	|||	Matt Schaub	98.6
Peyton Manning	97.2	|||	Tony Romo	97.6
Donovan McNabb	96.3	|||	Tom Brady	96.2
David Garrard	96.1	|||	Kurt Warner	93.2
Kyle Orton	94.7	|||	Eli Manning	93.1
Brad Gradkowski	94.4	|||	Donovan McNabb	92.9
Tom Brady	93.8	|||	Joe Flacco	88.9
Kurt Warner	93.4	|||	Kyle Orton	86.8
Eli Manning	92.8	|||	Jason Campbell	86.4
Vince Young	92.1	|||	Carson Palmer	83.6
Joe Flacco	87.7	|||	David Garrard	83.5
Marc Bulger	86.7	|||	Vince Young	82.8
Jason Campbell	85.4	|||	Alex Smith	81.5
Matt Ryan	83.0	|||	Matt Ryan	80.9
Carson Palmer	81.7	|||	Brad Gradkowski	80.6
Chad Henne	80.8	|||	Jay Cutler	76.8
Alex Smith	79.7	|||	Chad Henne	75.2
Brady Quinn	78.4	|||	Matt Hasselbeck	75.1
Matt Hasselbeck	75.7	|||	Trent Edwards	73.8
Matt Cassel	75.7	|||	Marc Bulger	70.7
Kerry Collins	72.1	|||	Matt Cassel	69.9
Trent Edwards	69.9	|||	Ryan Fitzpatrick	69.7
Kyle Boller	69.1	|||	Brady Quinn	67.2
Jay Cutler	67.3	|||	Kerry Collins	65.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	64.3	|||	Mark Sanchez	63.0
Mark Sanchez	60.9	|||	Kyle Boller	61.2
JaMarcus Russell	56.4	|||	Matt Stafford	61.0
Matt Stafford	54.1	|||	Josh Freeman	59.8
Jake Delhomme	51.5	|||	Jake Delhomme	59.4
Josh Freeman	46.4	|||	JaMarcus Russell	50.0
Derek Anderson	46.3	|||	Derek Anderson	42.1

Coming Later This Week: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2011 season and give our predictions for each division.

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	4	–	0	310	257	106.6	105.7	105.8	2
NY Giants	7	–	4	–	0	277	240	103.3	102.5	103.3	2
Dallas	3	–	8	–	0	256	301	96.8	98.9	99.5	2
Washington	5	–	6	–	0	215	262	96.3	97.1	96.1	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	7	–	4	–	0	269	166	109.9	109.9	106.8	3
Chicago	8	–	3	–	0	222	172	103.3	103.4	104.7	4
Minnesota	4	–	7	–	0	189	239	97.1	99.0	99.6	3
Detroit	2	–	9	–	0	258	282	95.0	96.7	93.9	4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Atlanta	9	–	2	–	0	276	209	106.3	105.3	106.9	4
New Orleans	8	–	3	–	0	265	197	105.8	104.5	106.6	2
Tampa Bay	7	–	4	–	0	219	223	99.1	99.0	100.6	2
Carolina	1	–	10	–	0	140	276	92.7	90.0	90.3	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	4	–	7	–	0	187	225	97.2	95.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	5	–	6	–	0	213	231	95.2	94.5	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	6	–	0	209	275	93.9	92.5	95.3	3
Arizona	3	–	8	–	0	194	319	88.0	88.3	89.7	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England	9	–	2	–	0	334	266	107.8	107.0	107.5	3
NY Jets	9	–	2	–	0	264	187	106.3	105.5	106.3	2
Miami	6	–	5	–	0	205	225	102.3	101.3	102.3	3
Buffalo	2	–	9	–	0	229	295	97.7	97.1	97.0	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	8	–	3	–	0	250	188	107.4	105.9	106.1	4
Pittsburgh	8	–	3	–	0	254	181	105.0	105.7	104.9	2
Cleveland	4	–	7	–	0	216	229	98.6	99.5	98.2	4
Cincinnati	2	–	9	–	0	225	288	95.0	95.5	91.3	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	5	–	0	282	252	102.9	102.9	102.2	4
Houston	5	–	6	–	0	264	287	100.6	100.3	99.4	2
Tennessee	5	–	6	–	0	257	218	96.7	102.1	96.5	4
Jacksonville	6	–	5	–	0	240	294	96.6	96.5	98.4	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	6	–	5	–	0	310	225	106.9	106.2	104.2	4
Kansas City	7	–	4	–	0	285	231	100.2	100.2	101.1	4
Oakland	5	–	6	–	0	255	256	96.3	96.4	97.7	2
Denver	3	–	8	–	0	250	323	93.6	95.2	92.2	2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Houston	8.0	7.4	8.4	8 1/2	51 1/2
MINNESOTA	Buffalo	2.4	4.9	5.6	6	44 1/2
MIAMI	Cleveland	6.7	4.8	7.1	4 1/2	42 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	4.1	9.6	2.1	NL	NL
KANSAS CITY	Denver	10.6	9.0	12.9	8 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Washington	9.0	7.4	9.2	7	43
Chicago	DETROIT	4.3	2.7	6.8	3 1/2	44 1/2
GREEN BAY	San Francisco	15.7	17.5	11.5	9 1/2	42
New Orleans	CINCINNATI	7.8	6.0	12.3	6 1/2	46 1/2
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	5.2	4.3	4.3	3	44 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	14.6	13.8	10.5	12 1/2	45 1/2
SEATTLE	Carolina	4.2	5.5	8.0	6	39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Dallas	10.1	8.0	6.7	5 1/2	47 1/2
St. Louis	ARIZONA	3.2	2.2	3.4	3	43
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	6.4	4.2	5.2	3	40
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	4.5	4.5	4.2	3 1/2	46

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	#
Michael Vick	Phi	6.8	0.43	118.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	1.12	110.5
Kyle Orton	Den	6.3	1.40	107.0
Matt Cassel	KC	6.0	1.24	106.7
Matt Ryan	Atl	5.6	1.23	104.5
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	6.4	1.82	103.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.39	102.1
Josh Freeman	TB	5.6	1.53	101.9
Vince Young	Ten	6.2	1.92	101.8
Matt Shaub	Hou	5.8	1.91	99.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	6.2	2.44	97.3
Seneca Wallace	Cle	5.4	2.00	96.6
Joe Flacco	Bal	5.7	2.19	96.6
Peyton Manning	Ind	5.6	2.26	95.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.20	93.8
Colt McCoy	Cle	5.4	2.36	93.5
Sam Bradford	Stl	4.5	2.18	90.0
Matt Hasselebeck	Sea	4.9	2.56	88.9
Kevin Kolb	Phi	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	Dal	5.7	3.29	87.0
Drew Brees	NO	5.4	3.29	85.3
Chad Henne	Mia	5.3	3.27	84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	4.8	3.03	84.2
Kerry Collins	Ten	4.2	2.80	82.8
Jay Cutler	Chi	5.0	3.42	81.9
Donovan McNabb	Was	4.8	3.31	81.8
Derek Anderson	Ari	4.2	2.93	81.7
Shaun Hill	Det	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jason Campbell	Oak	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jon Kitna	Dal	5.2	4.00	77.9
Carson Palmer	Cin	4.3	3.47	77.5
Eli Manning	NYG	5.2	4.26	75.7
Jimmy Clausen	Car	3.1	3.01	74.9
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
David Garrard	Jax	4.3	4.42	69.2
Bruce Gradkowski	Oak	4.0	4.43	67.4
Brett Favre	Min	4.2	4.86	64.8
Matt Moore	Car	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore