A PiRate Look At The 2008 NCAA Basketball Tournament
March 22, 2008 (3rd Update)
Thursday almost brought one major surprise when Duke escaped with a one-point win over Belmont. Most of the other Thursday games were a little ho-hum. The PiRate Criteria Rating was 15-1 on the day, losing only on the Texas A&M and BYU game, a game I said was the most competitive of the day. Additionally, I predicted that UCLA would set a record for fewest points allowed in the modern day NCAA Tournament; they did just that by holding the weakest team in the tournament, Mississippi Valley State, to just 29 points.
Friday was the day that ruined brackets all over America. The four lower seeds in Tampa all upset the four higher seeds. While I didn’t do as well Friday (9-7) as I did Thursday, my big teams all advanced and are still alive. That’s what this criteria looks to accomplish-find the teams that have what it takes to get to San Antonio.
Now, we’re down to 32 and by Sunday night, the Sweet 16 will be all that’s left. Let’s take a look at the PiRate Criteria as it applied to the second round. Due to time constraints, I will be using statistics that do not reflect the first round tournament games.
East Region
#1 North Carolina (33-2)
Scoring Margin: 16.9
FG% Margin: 6.2
Rebound Margin: 11.6
TO Margin: 1.9
Steals: 8.5
R + T: 15.48
PiRate: 15
SOS: .5921
#9 Arkansas (23-11)
Scoring Margin: 6.6
FG% Margin: 4.9
Rebound Margin: 4.5
TO Margin: -0.3
Steals: 7.0
R + T: 4.0
PiRate: 0
SOS: .5701
North Carolina has too much inside game for Steve Hill to stop and too much outside game for the Razorbacks to sag in the lane. The Tar Heels will be on cruise control as they waltz to the Sweet 16. Adding an extra few points for home state (cross town) advantage, you come up with another double digit win for the Tar Heels.
Prediction: North Carolina by 14
#5 Notre Dame (25-7)
Scoring Margin: 10.1
FG% Margin: 4.7
Rebound Margin: 5.8
TO Margin: -0.4
Steals: 6.4
R + T: 5.19
PiRate: 7
SOS: .5414
#4 Washington State (25-8)
Scoring Margin: 10.0
FG% Margin: 5.6
Rebound Margin: 0.1
TO Margin: 3.0
Steals: 6.3
R + T: 4.64
PiRate: 9
SOS: .5613
The best of the rest in the Big East meets the best of the rest in the Pac-10. This game is obviously a tossup, as the criteria indicates. Washington State has a slight edge in the final numbers, and they have extra impetus here to make up for what they thought was a blown chance in the second round last year.
While something in my gut says the Irish are going to win, my criteria forces me to go with Washington State in a close ball game.
Prediction: Washington State by 4
#6 Oklahoma (23-11)
Scoring Margin: 5.0
FG% Margin: 3.6
Rebound Margin: 3.0
TO Margin: 0.4
Steals: 6.6
R + T: 3.63
PiRate: 2
SOS: .5753
#3 Louisville (25-8)
Scoring Margin: 10.6
FG% Margin: 7.0
Rebound Margin: 3.0
TO Margin: 1.2
Steals: 8.1
R + T: 5.33
PiRate: 8
SOS: .5852
The Big 12 and the Big East have enjoyed early success in the Big Dance this year, and now representatives from both conferences face off in this game.
Oklahoma was quite impressive in their win over St. Joe’s, while Louisville had little more than a workout against Boise State. Rick Pitino certainly knows how to prepare his team in the NCAA Tournament, and I expect his Cardinals to move on to the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Louisville by 8
#7 Butler (30-3)
Scoring Margin: 10.5
FG% Margin: 2.1
Rebound Margin: -1.1
TO Margin: 3.6
Steals: 6.3
R + T: 4.34
PiRate: 6
SOS: .5181
# 2 Tennessee (30-4)
Scoring Margin: 12.9
FG% Margin: 2.9
Rebound Margin: 1.2
TO Margin: 5.4
Steals: 9.3
R + T: 13.25
PiRate: 13
SOS: .6063
Butler will not be intimidated by the Vols. The Bulldogs clobbered Tennessee last year in the semifinals of the Pre-season NIT.
Tennessee has not played its best ball in the last couple of weeks. It could be the Vols have players hitting the wall as they prepare to play their full-court pressing, fast breaking style of play in game 35.
Butler cannot really take advantage of Tennessee’s lone weakness. The Bulldogs don’t rebound the ball with enough authority to dominate the glass in this game, and I think second chance points could be a major factor in this game.
Prediction: Tennessee by 7
Midwest Region
#1 Kansas (32-3)
Scoring Margin: 19.9
FG% Margin: 12.3
Rebound Margin: 7.9
TO Margin: 3.0
Steals: 9.0
R + T: 14.38
PiRate: 21
SOS: .5594
#8 UNLV (27-7)
Scoring Margin: 8.0
FG% Margin: 1.6
Rebound Margin: -1.6
TO Margin: 4.3
Steals: 7.9
R + T: 6.55
PiRate: 5
SOS: .5496
The Jayhawks are solid at every position and in every phase of the game. UNLV will not be able to keep the rebounding statistics close to even. I expect KU to win the battle of the boards by five to 10. The Runnin’ Rebels will have a hard time scoring consistently without some form of transition game, while Kansas should pick up 10-15 points thanks to their fast break and early offense. The Big 12 is showing itself to be maybe the best conference so far, and I am selecting the Jayhawks to win with relative ease.
Prediction: Kansas by 15
#12 Villanova (21-12)
Scoring Margin: 3.5
FG% Margin: -0.9
Rebound Margin: 2.7
TO Margin: 2.4
Steals: 8.1
R + T: 7.37
PiRate: -1
SOS: .5586
#13 Siena (23-10)
Scoring Margin: 5.7
FG% Margin: 0.0
Rebound Margin: -4.5
TO Margin: 6.3
Steals: 9.4
R + T: 9.71
PiRate: 5
SOS: .5218
Villanova may have been the final at-large team in the field, but they proved their worth by coming back from an 18-point deficit to beat the team that took North Carolina to the wire last weekend. Now, the Wildcats find themselves as the sole remaining team from the City of Brotherly Love. Their win gave the Big East a 7-1 mark in the first round.
Siena did not upset Vanderbilt; they won by 21, and that’s no upset. It’s plain to see that experts all over the nation, including Seth Davis, called this one correctly. The Saints went marching all over the Commodores. Now, they aim for a berth in the Sweet 16, and they match up well with Villanova. The Wildcats extended themselves in their come-from-behind win, and they should bounce a little on Sunday.
Siena’s quickness just may be enough to advance the Saints into the third round. I expect an even better scoring performance by Siena’s big three scorers, and I expect Coach Fran McCaffery’s cagers to steal the ball enough times to get some cheap baskets in the stretch.
Prediction: Siena by 4
#11 Kansas State (21-11)
Scoring Margin: 9.8
FG% Margin: 2.1
Rebound Margin: 8.1
TO Margin: 1.3
Steals: 7.7
R + T: 10.5
PiRate: 11
SOS: .5697
#3 Wisconsin (30-4)
Scoring Margin: 13.5
FG% Margin: 7.0
Rebound Margin: 5.7
TO Margin: 4.8
Steals: 6.3
R + T: 12.96
PiRate: 17
SOS: .5518
This should be an interesting game worth watching. Kansas State didn’t have its best effort and still looked amazing against Southern Cal. The Wildcats can play even better than that, especially when Michael Beasley doesn’t get in quick foul trouble. I don’t expect the men from the Little Apple to commit as many fouls in this game.
Wisconsin keeps winning like they are a push-button, mechanical team. They play at a rather consistent pace and just don’t lose because of their actions; you have to beat them with superior talent and strategy, because this team is as fundamentally sound as a team can be.
I believe Coach Ryan will devise a game plan that slows down Beasley and forces Bill Walker out of his comfort zone. At the same time, I expect K-State’s defense to shut down Wisconsin for long stretches and make the Badgers look human. In the end, I’ll go with the Badgers to recover and score just enough points to win. Look for a score in the neighborhood of 60-55. If Wisconsin goes into a long drought in the second half, then KSU will take a commanding lead and hold on for the upset. It wouldn’t be that much of an upset, because the Wildcats should have been seeded in the upper half of the brackets.
Prediction: Wisconsin by an iffy 5
#10 Davidson (27-6)
Scoring Margin: 15.8
FG% Margin: 5.8
Rebound Margin: 4.3
TO Margin: 4.6
Steals: 8.1
R + T: 13.24
PiRate: 15
SOS: .5252
#2 Georgetown (28-5)
Scoring Margin: 11.7
FG% Margin: 11.9
Rebound Margin: 2.6
TO Margin: -0.4
Steals: 7.1
R + T: 1.92
PiRate: 8
SOS: .5670
The criteria shows that Davidson has a real chance in this game. The Wildcats came from behind in a hard-fought game to knock off Gonzaga, while Georgetown played a so-so game against a team that is virtually the same as an in-state opponent.
I expect Stephen Curry’s shooting percentage to go south, while Georgetown performs up to standards. I just don’t see the Wildcats having enough inside to win, but they had stretches this year in their games against North Carolina and UCLA where they handled themselves on the boards against even better inside teams.
I won’t totally discount Davidson, especially since the criteria says they will win. I’ll stick with the #2-seed to get by on defense and rebounding to pull out a win in a rough game.
Prediction: Georgetown by 8
South Region
#1 Memphis (34-1)
Scoring Margin: 19.1
FG% Margin: 8.3
Rebound Margin: 6.5
TO Margin: 4.4
Steals: 8.7
R + T: 15.69
PiRate: 19
SOS: .5749
#8 Mississippi State (23-10)
Scoring Margin: 8.0
FG% Margin: 9.3
Rebound Margin: 5.1
TO Margin: -2.6
Steals: 6.0
R + T: 1.36
PiRate: 7
SOS: .5523
This game will be physical and could get ugly. This is a backyard brawl between two schools that have rivalries in more than one sport. Mississippi State doesn’t have the ball handlers to break Memphis’s press and score in transition. That will allow the Tigers to gamble a little on their press and force a few more turnovers.
Mississippi State will intimidate the Tigers in the paint and force Memphis’s big men to alter their shots. It will give the Bulldogs a fighting chance in this game.
All year, I have wondered if Memphis has been seasoned enough. However, upon looking at their strength of schedule, those fears have been unfounded. Look for the top seed to advance.
Prediction: Memphis by 9
#5 Michigan State (26-8)
Scoring Margin: 9.3
FG% Margin: 7.9
Rebound Margin: 7.1
TO Margin: -1.2
Steals: 6.1
R + T: 5.34
PiRate: 8
SOS: .5636
#4 Pittsburgh (27-9)
Scoring Margin: 8.9
FG% Margin: 3.8
Rebound Margin: 4.4
TO Margin: 1.9
Steals: 6.8
R + T: 7.50
PiRate: 8
SOS: .5723
This will be the equivalent of the Bears and Packers playing football in the 1930’s. Both of these teams can play muscle basketball with the best of them. The criteria calls this one a 50-50 proposition, so I have to vote to break the tie. I’m going with Pittsburgh for two reasons. First, they are playing their best ball of the season and are riding a nice winning streak. Second, Michigan State has a habit of occasionally going into a funk on offense.
The Panthers will make it hard for Drew Neitzel to get many open looks from outside, and it will take an epic performance by Raymar Morgan to counter it. I expect Pitt’s great depth in the frontcourt will eventually wear down the Spartans inside.
Prediction: Pittsburgh by 7
#6 Marquette (25-9)
Scoring Margin: 11.5
FG% Margin: 3.5
Rebound Margin: 2.4
TO Margin: 3.8
Steals: 9.6
R + T: 11.16
PiRate: 13
SOS: .5753
#3 Stanford (27-7)
Scoring Margin: 10.1
FG% Margin: 5.5
Rebound Margin: 8.0
TO Margin: -0.5
Steals: 4.4
R + T: 7.47
PiRate: 8
SOS: .5547
Marquette has the better criteria here by a healthy margin. The Golden Eagles looked a little off in their opening round game with Kentucky, but that may have been more Kentucky’s doing. Stanford’s defense will look ordinary compared to the Wildcats.
At the other end of the floor, Stanford’s hope is to dominate the boards and get multiple offensive rebounds and second chance points. I think the Cardinal will lose the turnover battle by at least three or four, so a decided rebounding margin will be a must. I’m guessing that won’t happen.
Prediction: Marquette by 6
#7 Miami (Fla.) (23-10)
Scoring Margin: 7.0
FG% Margin: 3.1
Rebound Margin: 2.1
TO Margin: 1.2
Steals: 6.1
R + T: 3.86
PiRate: 1
SOS: .5599
#2 Texas (29-6)
Scoring Margin: 11.1
FG% Margin: 6.3
Rebound Margin: 2.5
TO Margin: 2.9
Steals: 6.2
R + T: 6.82
PiRate: 8
SOS: .5950
The ACC only put four teams into the Dance, and three of them won in the first round. The Big 12 saw five of its six entrants survive to the second round. Something has to give Sunday.
Miami’s second half against St. Mary’s showed a Hurricane team that was capable of competing with any team in the tournament. Texas blew Austin Peay off the floor before the first TV timeout, and the Longhorns will come into this game fresh and ready to give the Big 12 another victory.
Prediction: Texas by 10
West Region
#1 U C L A (32-3)
Scoring Margin: 15.0
FG% Margin: 4.8
Rebound Margin: 8.4
TO Margin: 2.5
Steals: 7.4
R + T: 12.84
PiRate: 14
SOS: .5771
#9 Texas A&M (25-10)
Scoring Margin: 9.6
FG% Margin: 7.3
Rebound Margin: 7.1
TO Margin: -1.5
Steals: 4.5
R + T: 5.48
PiRate: 6
SOS: .5561
UCLA’s defensive effort in the opening round was nothing short of spectacular, even against lowly Mississippi Valley. Texas A&M played a complete game against BYU. I expect the Aggies to be pests in this game and keep it close for most of the day.
The match-ups only slightly favor the Bruins, but the venue favors the sky blue and gold even more. Look for Ben Howland’s squad to move on to the Sweet 16, but it won’t be another repeat of Thursday night.
Prediction: UCLA by 9
#12 Western Kentucky (28-6)
Scoring Margin: 11.6
FG% Margin: 5.1
Rebound Margin: 3.3
TO Margin: 3.8
Steals: 7.8
R + T: 10.41
PiRate: 15
SOS: .5123
#13 San Diego (22-13)
Scoring Margin: 2.2
FG% Margin: 1.0
Rebound Margin: 1.8
TO Margin: 0.3
Steals: 6.8
R + T: 2.29
PiRate: 0
SOS: .5283
As former New York Yankee broadcaster Mel Allen used to say, “How about that?” The number 12 and number 13 seed advanced twice in Tampa. According to the PiRate criteria, Western Kentucky is a hidden gem. The Hilltoppers made it to the Final Four in 1971, only to have their appearance forfeited. Might WKU be on a course to get there again? I think they will come up short by at least one and possibly two games, but I think they will be one of the final 16 teams with a chance to do just that.
I don’t give San Diego much chance in this game, because I’m not sure they can come back down to Earth after knocking off Connecticut Friday. Two years ago, George Mason was able to stay up after winning big game after big game, but that team had a double digit criteria number-just like WKU.
Prediction: Western Kentucky by 7
#6 Purdue (25-8)
Scoring Margin: 7.5
FG% Margin: -1.1
Rebound Margin: -0.1
TO Margin: 4.8
Steals: 8.5
R + T: 9.69
PiRate: 2
SOS: .5204
#3 Xavier (28-6)
Scoring Margin: 13.0
FG% Margin: 7.4
Rebound Margin: 6.2
TO Margin: -0.2
Steals: 5.6
R + T: 5.93
PiRate: 8
SOS: .5720
Xavier fiddled for 32 minutes Thursday before wearing down Georgia. The Musketeers should play more consistently in this second round game, and it should be enough to send their Big 10 bully back to Indiana.
Xavier should control the boards and shoot a higher percentage from the field than the Boilermakers. Unless they commit 18 or more turnovers, with a good eight being PU steals or they shoot below 35%, they will get too many additional chances to score to possibly lose.
Prediction: Xavier by 7
#7 West Virginia (25-10)
Scoring Margin: 11.9
FG% Margin: 3.5
Rebound Margin: 2.0
TO Margin: 4.8
Steals: 7.2
R + T: 10.29
PiRate: 13
SOS: .5616
#2 Duke (28-5)
Scoring Margin: 14.8
FG% Margin: 3.1
Rebound Margin: 0.5
TO Margin: 5.0
Steals: 8.7
R + T: 10.94
PiRate: 13
SOS: .5857
Here is my upset pick for Saturday. West Virginia has the horses to exploit Duke’s weakness in the paint. These two teams’ criteria couldn’t be much closer, and Duke’s schedule strength advantage of 2.4 isn’t going to tilt the game in their favor.
West Virginia is improving every week, whereas Duke appears to be hitting a valley. The win over Belmont was not the result of overlooking their #15-seeded opponents. The Blue Devils just didn’t look like they were capable of putting Belmont away at any point in the game.
Prediction: West Virginia by 6
The Pi-Rate Ratings 