PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

NCAA First Four

Team 1	Team 2	Spread
Mount St. Mary’s	Texas Southern	1.3
Drake	Wichita St.	2.0
Norfolk St.	Appalachian St.	0.3
UCLA	Michigan St.	0.7

PiRate Ratings Final Bracketology Prediction

Date	3/14/2021	FINAL
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Illinois	Michigan
2	Ohio St.	Alabama	Iowa	Houston
3	Oklahoma St.	Arkansas	Kansas	Texas
4	West Virginia	Purdue	Virginia	Florida St.
5	Tennessee	Villanova	Creighton	Texas Tech
6	Colorado	USC	LSU	Missouri
7	BYU	Oklahoma	Oregon	Clemson
8	Connecticut	San Diego St.	Wisconsin	Florida
9	Virginia Tech	Loyola (Chi.)	Georgia Tech	North Carolina
10	Rutgers	St. Bonaventure	Maryland	VCU
11	Louisville	Michigan St.	UCLA	Syracuse	Utah St.	Drake
12	Oregon St.	Georgetown	North Texas	Winthrop
13	Ohio U	Liberty	UNCG	UCSB
14	Colgate	Morehead St.	Abilene Christian	E. Washington
15	Cleveland St.	Drexel	Grand Canyon	Iona
16	Oral Roberts	Hartford	Norfolk St.	Mount St. Mary’s	Texas Southern	Appalachian St.

1st Four Out

69	Wichita St.
70	Colorado St.
71	Saint Louis
72	Boise St.

1st 4 Games

11 UCLA vs. 11 Drake

11 Syracuse vs. 11 Utah St.

16 Norfolk St. vs. 16 Mount St. Mary’s

16 Texas Southern vs. 16 Appalachian St.

Sunday Morning Bracketology

Preliminary to Final Prediction

The PiRates have been busy these last 12 hours rearranging the seed lines and replacing unfortunate at-large teams that were bumped twice yesterday, as Georgetown and Oregon State crashed the Dance party with impressive wins.

Five games remain to be played before the regular season comes to an end, and all five games could affect the final seed lines:

In the first game today, if Colgate beats Loyola of Maryland, the Raiders could move up one line, but the bigger possibility is the movement of more than a dozen seeds if Loyola pulls the upset. Colgate figures to be a 13 or 14 seed, but Loyola would be a 16 seed with a win. Colgate is somewhat of another issue, because the Raiders are a Top 10 team according to the NET Ratings, but they did so by facing no serious competition from top 100 teams. We believe the Committee will overrule their own criteria and send Colgate down the seed line.

In game two, St. Bonaventure faces VCU for the Atlantic 10 Championship. We believe both teams are locks to get into the Dance, but the winner and loser could be one seed apart. Or, the Committee might decide that this game doesn’t really matter and keep the two teams where they have them today. This is highly likely, and we are using that belief in our second to last seeding prediction. The Committee will be faced with an afternoon headache, where many teams will have to be shifted to accommodate a potential bid-thief. In fact, they will have two different brackets and keep one depending on what happens later in the day.

LSU and Alabama face off in what brings up memories of the Game of the Year in football, but this is the SEC Basketball Championship Game. Alabama has a sliver of hope to move to the 1-seed line with an impressive win and an Illinois loss in the Big Ten, but we believe they are probably locked in at the 2-seed line. However, should LSU pull off the upset, the Tigers might move up one line and knock somebody back a line.

The big mover and shaker game is the American Athletic Conference Championship Game this afternoon. Cincinnati could steal a bid away with an upset of Houston, and at the same time knock the Cougars down a spot in the seedings. If Houston wins, then everything is copacetic.

Because it will be the last game of the day, and both teams are rather secure in their destinies, we believe the Big Ten Conference Championship Game will be meaningless toward the final seedings. Illinois has done the work to earn a 1-seed, while Ohio State has worked their way back to a 2-seed. The Committee will not have time to alter their brackets at this point, so they will choose to ignore this game.

The important news then is who are the teams on the Bubble? Rather than announce 68 teams like in other years, the Committee will announce 72 teams, the regular 68 plus four alternates in case teams like Virginia and Kansas cannot field rosters for the tournament.

As we see it this morning, Drake is the last team in the field, currently an 11-seed looking at a First Four game against possibly UCLA. Should Cincinnati upset Houston today, the Bearcats would be looking at a 12 or 13-seed, and Drake would be dropped to the alternate pool, while Boise St. or Saint Louis would be dropped from the alternate pool to the NIT. Other teams just on the thin line include Utah State and Syracuse, two teams we show in the First Four, and Wichita State and Colorado State, two teams we show in the alternate list.

The First Four seedings moved from 12 to 11 last night when Georgetown and Oregon State kicked through the Dance hall door. The Hoyas and Beavers cannot be 11 seeds. We slotted them both on the 12-seed line, but we are not totally convinced yet that they will remain there. Doing a little research, the last time a power conference team with a similar record crashed the party like this, Georgia earned a 14-seed. Because teams like Colgate, Winthrop, UNCG, and UCSB are capable of moving up a line, there is a chance for chaos if Cincinnati wins today, because the Bearcats are not deserving of a 12-seed and maybe not even a 13-seed.

Here is how our field looks this morning with Cincinnati not in the Tournament.

Date	3/14/2021	Morning Edition
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Illinois	Michigan
2	Ohio St.	Alabama	Iowa	Houston
3	Oklahoma St.	Arkansas	Kansas	Texas
4	West Virginia	Purdue	Florida St.	Virginia
5	Tennessee	Villanova	Creighton	USC
6	Colorado	Texas Tech	LSU	Missouri
7	BYU	Oklahoma	Oregon	Connecticut
8	Clemson	San Diego St.	Wisconsin	Florida
9	Virginia Tech	Loyola (Chi.)	Rutgers	North Carolina
10	Georgia Tech	St. Bonaventure	Maryland	VCU
11	Louisville	Michigan St.	UCLA	Syracuse	Utah St.	Drake
12	Oregon St.	Georgetown	UCSB	Winthrop
13	Ohio U	Liberty	UNCG	North Texas
14	Colgate	Morehead St.	Abilene Christian	E. Washington
15	Cleveland St.	Drexel	Grand Canyon	Iona
16	Oral Roberts	Hartford	Norfolk St.	Mount St. Mary’s	Texas Southern	Appalachian St.

Four Alternates

69	Wichita St.
70	Colorado St.
71	Saint Louis
72	Boise St.

Note: We have already begun putting our

Bracketnomics Data into a spreadsheet, and we will

have it completed late tonight. We will then spend

Monday looking at the data and be ready to reveal

our opinions on the field on Tuesday. Look for our

annually most read post to publish

Tuesday afternoon, approximately 3 PM Eastern

Daylight Time, giving you plenty of time to read and

then fill out the brackets in your competitions.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/8/2021
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Michigan	Illinois
2	Ohio St.	Alabama	Iowa	West Virginia
3	Houston	Arkansas	Kansas	Villanova
4	Purdue	Texas	Oklahoma St.	Florida St.
5	Virginia	Texas Tech	USC	Tennessee
6	Creighton	Colorado	Clemson	Oklahoma
7	Oregon	Missouri	Wisconsin	Florida
8	BYU	LSU	Virginia Tech	Connecticut
9	Rutgers	San Diego St.	Loyola (Chi.)	North Carolina
10	Maryland	St. Bonaventure	UCLA	Louisville
11	Georgia Tech	Michigan St.	VCU	Colorado St.
12	Western Ky.	Toledo	Boise St.	Drake	Wichita St.	Xavier
13	UCSB	Winthrop	Liberty	Colgate
14	UNCG	S. Dakota St.	Morehead St.	Abilene Chr.
15	E. Washington	Georgia St.	Siena	Cleveland St.
16	Northeastern	Bryant	Grand Canyon	Hartford	Norfolk St.	Prairie View A&M

Teams in Bold have secured automatic bids

The Bad Side of the Bubble

69	Ole Miss
70	Syracuse
71	Utah St.
72	Saint Louis
73	Seton Hall
74	SMU
75	St. John’s
76	North Carolina St.

Bracketnomics Tutorial Release Coming This Week!

Until recently, when our breakthrough Sabertooth Baseball Game went viral due to a Facebook post that we still do not know who the benevolent benefactor of great news is, our most popular annual activity here on the PiRate Ratings has been “Bracketnomics.”

For years, we have used technical statistics and other data to isolate the real March Madness contenders from the pretenders and to eliminate certain higher seeds due to their possessing “uh-oh” stats that show them ripe for a quick upset.

We were all set to debut our latest evolution of Bracketnomics last year, until Covidnomics defeated all sports in March of 2020. It gave us extra time to scour our resources and to look for more trends, in addition to the tried and true methods we have used for years.

Coming Friday, we will release our Bracketnomics 2021 Tutorial, so you can have the weekend to look it over and use the information the best way you know how. Please let the best way you know how be a method that involves no financial risk.

The PiRate Ratings personal creation of “R+T” Rating, schedule strength, and the Four Factors still hold considerable importance, but the handicapping of each data point has changed. Other sets of data added to the mix should let you clearly see which teams have the look of past national champions, Final Four participants, and even Cinderella Mid-Majors that might be ready to wear the slipper until there are just eight teams remaining.

Oh, and if you haven’t heard about our advanced analytics tabletop baseball game that went viral over the weekend, you can check it out at our sister site: https://sabertoothbaseball.wordpress.com and order a game at https://sabertooth-baseball.square.site , or click the link in the WordPress site.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, March 7, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
Houston	Memphis	9.3
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-0.5
Liberty	North Alabama	14.3
Baylor	Texas Tech	9.4
TCU	Texas	-9.2
Winthrop	Campbell	10.3
Iowa	Wisconsin	7.9
Northwestern	Nebraska	4.7
Michigan St.	Michigan	-10.3
Maryland	Penn St.	2.3
Hofstra	Delaware	2.9
James Madison	Elon	6.2
Northeastern	William & Mary	8.7
Charleston	Drexel	-2.0
North Carolina Central	South Carolina St.	8.6
Loyola (Chi.)	Drake	4.6
Oregon St.	Oregon	-4.2
Georgia St.	Louisiana	3.8
Appalachian St.	Coastal Carolina	-3.8
Tennessee	Florida	2.4
UNCG	East Tennessee St.	2.2
Mercer	VMI	0.2
Oral Roberts	North Dakota	8.0
North Dakota St.	Missouri-Kansas City	4.4

Today’s Conference Tournament Action

Atlantic Sun CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Jacksonville, 2PM EST, ESPN

1 Liberty vs. 5 North Alabama

Liberty has already clinched an automatic bid , as UNA is ineligible due to their transition phase to Division 1

Big South CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

12 PM , ESPN

3 Campbell at 1 Winthrop

Colonial Athletic Quarterfinals

At James Madison in Harrisonburg, VA

1 James Madison vs. 8 Elon

4 Hofstra vs. 5 Delaware

2 Northeastern vs. 7 William & Mary

3 College of Charleston vs. 6 Drexel

Missouri Valley CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Saint Louis, 2 PM EST, CBS

1 Loyola (Chi.) vs. 2 Drake

Southern Conference Semifinals

Asheville, NC

1 UNC-Greensboro vs. 5 East Tennessee St.

6 VMI vs. 7 Mercer

Summit League 2nd Half of Quarterfinals

at Sioux Falls, SD

4 Oral Roberts vs. 5 North Dakota

3 North Dakota St. vs. 6 Missouri-Kansas City

Sun Belt Conference Semifinals

at Pensacola, FL

1E Georgia St. vs. 2W Louisiana

2E Coastal Carolina vs. 4E Appalachian St.

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty 22-5

Morehead St. 23-7

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Saturday, March 6, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
St. Bonaventure	Saint Louis	0.3
VCU	Davidson	3.9
Notre Dame	Florida St.	-6.7
Clemson	Pittsburgh	5.1
Louisville	Virginia	-0.9
North Carolina	Duke	3.1
UMBC	UMass-Lowell	6.5
Vermont	Hartford	8.7
Wichita St.	South Florida	10.0
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	4.3
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	1.4
Connecticut	Georgetown	8.6
Providence	Villanova	-5.8
Creighton	Butler	12.5
St. John’s	Seton Hall	0.9
Marquette	Xavier	-0.2
Montana St.	Sacramento St.	3.8
Weber St.	Northern Colorado	10.0
Portland St.	Southern Utah	-2.8
Minnesota	Rutgers	-0.4
Purdue	Indiana	5.9
Ohio St.	Illinois	-1.7
UC Davis	Hawaii	0.3
Cal St. Northridge	UC-Riverside	-10.2
Long Beach St.	UC-Irvine	-9.8
UC San Diego	Cal St. Fullerton	3.2
UCSB	Cal Poly	22.6
Marshall	Charlotte	14.2
Western Kentucky	Old Dominion	8.3
North Texas	UAB	6.4
Elon	Towson	4.2
William & Mary	UNC-Wilmington	-2.9
Delaware St.	Morgan St.	-11.3
Loyola (Chi.)	Indiana St.	10.8
Drake	Missouri St.	3.9
Fresno St.	Utah St.	-10.5
Wyoming	UNLV	0.2
Bryant	Sacred Heart	9.7
Wagner	Mount St. Mary’s	3.4
Belmont	Morehead St.	4.8
Utah	Arizona St.	2.8
UCLA	USC	-2.8
Navy	Loyola (MD)	7.1
Colgate	Boston U	14.3
Lafayette	Bucknell	3.6
Army	American	4.4
Kentucky	South Carolina	6.4
Auburn	Mississippi St.	2.8
Georgia	Alabama	-9.4
Missouri	LSU	-0.5
Arkansas	Texas A&M	16.1
Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	5.8
Prairie View	Alcorn St.	9.9
Jackson St.	Alabama St.	12.6
Texas Southern	Southern	4.9
Grambling	Alabama A&M	5.7
UNCG	The Citadel	9.7
Chattanooga	East Tennessee St.	-1.7
Wofford	Mercer	1.7
Furman	VMI	5.0
Northwestern St.	Central Arkansas	2.9
Abilene Christian	Incarnate Word	19.5
McNeese St.	Lamar	-0.2
Houston Baptist	Texas A&M-CC	4.2
Sam Houston St.	Stephen F. Austin	1.6
New Orleans	Southeast Louisiana	6.2
South Dakota St.	Omaha	16.2
South Dakota	Western Illinois	10.3
Louisiana	South Alabama	2.6
Georgia St.	Arkansas St.	8.5
Coastal Carolina	Troy	10.3
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	5.8
UT Rio Grande Valley	Tarleton St.	5.3
Dixie St.	New Mexico St.	-10.4
Grand Canyon	Utah Valley	8.3
California Baptist	Seattle	2.3
Saint Mary’s	Loyola Marymount	0.1
Pepperdine	Santa Clara	3.2

Conference Tournament Update

Today’s Conference Tournament Games

America East Semifinals

6 U Mass-Lowell at 1 Maryland-Baltimore Co.

4 Hartford at 2 Vermont

Atlantic 10 Semifinals (Richmond)

1 St. Bonaventure vs. 4 Saint Louis

2 VCU vs. 3 Davidson

Colonial Athletic 1st Round (@ James Madison)

8 Elon vs. 9 Towson

7 William & Mary vs. 10 UNC-Wilmington

Missouri Valley Semifinals at Saint Louis

1 Loyola (Chi.) vs. 4 Indiana St.

2 Drake vs. 3 Missouri St.

Northeast Semifinals

4 Mount St. Mary’s at 1 Wagner

3 Sacred Heart at 2 Bryant

Ohio Valley Championship Game at Evansville

1 Belmont vs. 2 Morehead St. — 8 PM EST on ESPN2

Southern Quarterfinals at Asheville

1 UNC-Greensboro vs. 8 The Citadel

4 Chattanooga vs. 5 East Tennessee St.

2 Wofford vs. 7 Mercer

3 Furman vs. 6 VMI

Summit Quarterfinals 1st 2 Games at Sioux Falls

1 South Dakota St. vs. 8 Omaha

2 South Dakota vs. 7 Western Illinois

Sun Belt Quarterfinals at Pensacola

1E Georgia St. vs. 4W Arkansas St.

2W Louisiana vs. 3E South Alabama

1W Texas St. vs. 4E Appalachian St.

2E Coastal Carolina vs. 6E Troy

West Coast Quarterfinals at Las Vegas

4 Saint Mary’s vs. 5 Loyola Marymount

3 Pepperdine vs. 7 Santa Clara

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty — Atlantic Sun 22-5

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Tournament Update

Friday, March 5, 2021 (Prior to start of A-10 Games today)

Atlantic Sun

Semifinals, Today

1 Liberty vs. 7 Stetson

5 North Alabama vs. 6 Florida Gulf Coast

Note: If North Alabama wins the tournament, Liberty is the automatic NCAA Tournament qualifier.

Atlantic 10

Quarterfinals, Today, Richmond, VA

1 St. Bonaventure vs. 9 Duquesne

4 Saint Louis vs. 5 Massachusetts

2 VCU vs. 7 Dayton

3 Davidson vs. George Mason

Big South

Championship Game, Sunday at Winthrop

1 Winthrop vs. 3 Campbell

Colonial Athletic

1st Round, Saturday at James Madison

8 Elon vs. 9 Towson

7 William & Mary vs. 10 UNC-Wilmington

Horizon

Semifinals, Monday at Indianapolis

1 Cleveland St. vs. 8 Milwaukee

3 Oakland vs. 4 Northern Kentucky

Missouri Valley (Arch Madness)

Quarterfinals, Today, at Saint Louis

1 Loyola (Chi.) vs. 9 Southern Illinois

4 Indiana St. vs. 5 Evansville

2 Drake vs. 7 Northern Iowa

3 Missouri St. vs. 6 Valparaiso

Northeast

Semifinals, Saturday at Higher Seed

1 Wagner vs. 4 Mount St. Mary’s

2 Bryant vs. 3 Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley

Semifinals, Friday at Evansville

1 Belmont vs. 4 Jacksonville St.

2 Morehead St. vs. 3 Eastern Kentucky

Patriot

Quarterfinals, Saturday at Higher Seeds

1 Navy vs. Loyola (MD)

4 Army vs. 5 American

2 Colgate vs. 7 Boston U

3 Lafayette vs. 6 Bucknell

Southern

1st Round, Today at Asheville, NC

8 The Citadel vs. 9 Western Carolina

7 Mercer vs. 10 Samford

Summit

Quarterfinals, Saturday & Sunday, Sioux Falls, SD

1 South Dakota St. vs. 8 Omaha

4 Oral Roberts vs. 5 North Dakota

2 South Dakota vs. 7 Western Illinois

3 North Dakota St. vs. Kansas City

Sun Belt

1st Round, Today at Pensacola, FL

4W Arkansas St. vs. 5E Georgia Southern

3E South Alabama vs. 6W Louisiana-Monroe

4E Appalachian St. vs. 5W Little Rock

3W UT-Arlington vs. 6E Troy

West Coast

2nd Round, Today at Las Vegas

5 Loyola Marymount vs. 8 San Francisco

6 Pacific vs. 7 Santa Clara

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Friday, March 5, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
St. Bonaventure	Duquesne	7.3
Saint Louis	Massachusetts	6.2
VCU	Dayton	4.6
Davidson	George Mason	4.4
Miami (Fla.)	Boston College	0.4
Wake Forest	Georgia Tech	-10.3
Liberty	Stetson	10.6
North Alabama	Florida Gulf Coast	-1.4
Montana St.	Sacramento St.	3.8
Eastern Washington	Idaho State	11.8
UC Davis	Hawaii	0.3
Cal St. Northridge	UC Riverside	-10.2
Long Beach St.	UC Irvine	-9.8
UC San Diego	Cal St. Fullerton	3.2
UC Santa Barbara	Cal Poly	22.6
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tennessee	9.1
Marshall	Charlotte	14.2
Western Kentucky	Old Dominion	8.3
North Texas	UAB	6.4
Quinnipiac	Saint Peter’s	-2.0
Rider	Monmouth	-4.7
Manhattan	Fairfield	4.7
Siena	Canisius	6.8
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	7.1
Buffalo	Kent St.	4.3
Akron	Miami (O)	5.8
Toledo	Ball St.	9.7
Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	3.2
Delaware St.	Morgan St	-11.3
Loyola (Chi.)	Southern Illinois	16.3
Indiana St.	Evansville	6.1
Drake	Northern Iowa	9.7
Missouri St.	Valparaiso	7.8
Nevada	Colorado St.	-2.0
Belmont	Jacksonville St.	6.2
Morehead St.	Eastern Kentucky	1.9
Arkansas St.	Georgia Southern	1.5
South Alabama	Louisiana Monroe	4.6
Appalachian St.	Little Rock	-0.1
UT Arlington	Troy	3.9
The Citadel	Western Carolina	-0.5
Mercer	Samford	7.3
Mississippi Valley St.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-10.3
UT Rio Grande Valley	Tarleton	5.3
Dixie St.	New Mexico St.	-10.4
Grand Canyon	Utah Valley	8.3
California Baptist	Seattle	2.3
Loyola Marymount	San Francisco	-0.5
Pacific	Santa Clara	2.9

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
George Washington	Rhode Island	-8.7
St. Bonaventure	Davidson	4.1
Houston	Cincinnati	13.0
Temple	South Florida	1.1
Xavier	Butler	9.1
Ohio St.	Michigan	0.7
Rutgers	Maryland	0.1
Iowa	Penn St.	11.0
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-3.8
Drake	Evansville	15.7
Southern Illinois	Valparaiso	0.3
San Jose St.	UNLV	-9.2
Wagner	St. Francis (Pa)	6.6
Colgate	Boston U	14.1
American	Navy	-3.0

Note: Big Announcement Coming Later Today!

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

2/19/2021

Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Michigan	Ohio St.
2	Illinois	Alabama	Villanova	Iowa
3	Oklahoma	Virginia	West Virginia	Houston
4	Florida St.	USC	Texas	Texas Tech
5	Kansas	Virginia Tech	Tennessee	Creighton
6	Purdue	Wisconsin	Arkansas	Missouri
7	Rutgers	Colorado	BYU	Oklahoma St.
8	Clemson	Florida	Louisville	LSU
9	Oregon	UCLA	San Diego St.	Indiana
10	Boise St.	Loyola (Chi.)	North Carolina	Seton Hall
11	Minnesota	Colorado St.	Drake	VCU
12	Belmont	Western Ky.	Stanford	St. Bonaventure	Connecticut	Saint Louis
13	Toledo	Winthrop	Colgate	UCSB
14	Wright St.	S.F. Austin	Liberty	UNCG
15	Vermont	S. Dakota St.	Siena	Grand Canyon
16	James Madison	E. Washington	Texas St.	Wagner	Prairie View	N.C. A&T

Last 4 Byes: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Colorado St., Drake

Last 4 In: Stanford, St. Bonaventure, Connecticut, Saint Louis

First 4 Out: Xavier, Maryland, Wichita St., St. John’s

Next 4 Out: Utah St., Ole Miss, Syracuse, Georgia Tech

Note: After careful perusal of the mock top four seeds released a week ago, we have discovered some new tendencies that the Committee gave more weight to than they usually do when there is a lot more interconference play. Thus, expect our bracketology to change a little next week showing seeds in somewhat different order from what they are this week. For instance, we believe that a team like Colgate may be drastically underrated, while a team like 23-1 Belmont may be overrated a bit even after winning their 20th consecutive game last night.