The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 18, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

NCAA First Four

Team 1Team 2Spread
Mount St. Mary’sTexas Southern1.3
DrakeWichita St.2.0
Norfolk St.Appalachian St.0.3
UCLAMichigan St.0.7

March 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings Final Bracketology Prediction

Date3/14/2021FINAL
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorIllinoisMichigan
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaHouston
3Oklahoma St.ArkansasKansasTexas
4West VirginiaPurdueVirginiaFlorida St.
5TennesseeVillanovaCreightonTexas Tech
6ColoradoUSCLSUMissouri
7BYUOklahomaOregonClemson
8ConnecticutSan Diego St.WisconsinFlorida
9Virginia TechLoyola (Chi.)Georgia TechNorth Carolina
10RutgersSt. BonaventureMarylandVCU
11LouisvilleMichigan St.UCLASyracuseUtah St.Drake
12Oregon St.GeorgetownNorth TexasWinthrop
13Ohio ULibertyUNCGUCSB
14ColgateMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.DrexelGrand CanyonIona
16Oral RobertsHartfordNorfolk St.Mount St. Mary’sTexas SouthernAppalachian St.

1st Four Out

69Wichita St.
70Colorado St.
71Saint Louis
72Boise St.

1st 4 Games

11 UCLA vs. 11 Drake

11 Syracuse vs. 11 Utah St.

16 Norfolk St. vs. 16 Mount St. Mary’s

16 Texas Southern vs. 16 Appalachian St.

Sunday Morning Bracketology

Preliminary to Final Prediction

The PiRates have been busy these last 12 hours rearranging the seed lines and replacing unfortunate at-large teams that were bumped twice yesterday, as Georgetown and Oregon State crashed the Dance party with impressive wins.

Five games remain to be played before the regular season comes to an end, and all five games could affect the final seed lines:

In the first game today, if Colgate beats Loyola of Maryland, the Raiders could move up one line, but the bigger possibility is the movement of more than a dozen seeds if Loyola pulls the upset. Colgate figures to be a 13 or 14 seed, but Loyola would be a 16 seed with a win. Colgate is somewhat of another issue, because the Raiders are a Top 10 team according to the NET Ratings, but they did so by facing no serious competition from top 100 teams. We believe the Committee will overrule their own criteria and send Colgate down the seed line.

In game two, St. Bonaventure faces VCU for the Atlantic 10 Championship. We believe both teams are locks to get into the Dance, but the winner and loser could be one seed apart. Or, the Committee might decide that this game doesn’t really matter and keep the two teams where they have them today. This is highly likely, and we are using that belief in our second to last seeding prediction. The Committee will be faced with an afternoon headache, where many teams will have to be shifted to accommodate a potential bid-thief. In fact, they will have two different brackets and keep one depending on what happens later in the day.

LSU and Alabama face off in what brings up memories of the Game of the Year in football, but this is the SEC Basketball Championship Game. Alabama has a sliver of hope to move to the 1-seed line with an impressive win and an Illinois loss in the Big Ten, but we believe they are probably locked in at the 2-seed line. However, should LSU pull off the upset, the Tigers might move up one line and knock somebody back a line.

The big mover and shaker game is the American Athletic Conference Championship Game this afternoon. Cincinnati could steal a bid away with an upset of Houston, and at the same time knock the Cougars down a spot in the seedings. If Houston wins, then everything is copacetic.

Because it will be the last game of the day, and both teams are rather secure in their destinies, we believe the Big Ten Conference Championship Game will be meaningless toward the final seedings. Illinois has done the work to earn a 1-seed, while Ohio State has worked their way back to a 2-seed. The Committee will not have time to alter their brackets at this point, so they will choose to ignore this game.

The important news then is who are the teams on the Bubble? Rather than announce 68 teams like in other years, the Committee will announce 72 teams, the regular 68 plus four alternates in case teams like Virginia and Kansas cannot field rosters for the tournament.

As we see it this morning, Drake is the last team in the field, currently an 11-seed looking at a First Four game against possibly UCLA. Should Cincinnati upset Houston today, the Bearcats would be looking at a 12 or 13-seed, and Drake would be dropped to the alternate pool, while Boise St. or Saint Louis would be dropped from the alternate pool to the NIT. Other teams just on the thin line include Utah State and Syracuse, two teams we show in the First Four, and Wichita State and Colorado State, two teams we show in the alternate list.

The First Four seedings moved from 12 to 11 last night when Georgetown and Oregon State kicked through the Dance hall door. The Hoyas and Beavers cannot be 11 seeds. We slotted them both on the 12-seed line, but we are not totally convinced yet that they will remain there. Doing a little research, the last time a power conference team with a similar record crashed the party like this, Georgia earned a 14-seed. Because teams like Colgate, Winthrop, UNCG, and UCSB are capable of moving up a line, there is a chance for chaos if Cincinnati wins today, because the Bearcats are not deserving of a 12-seed and maybe not even a 13-seed.

Here is how our field looks this morning with Cincinnati not in the Tournament.

Date3/14/2021Morning Edition
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorIllinoisMichigan
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaHouston
3Oklahoma St.ArkansasKansasTexas
4West VirginiaPurdueFlorida St.Virginia
5TennesseeVillanovaCreightonUSC
6ColoradoTexas TechLSUMissouri
7BYUOklahomaOregonConnecticut
8ClemsonSan Diego St.WisconsinFlorida
9Virginia TechLoyola (Chi.)RutgersNorth Carolina
10Georgia TechSt. BonaventureMarylandVCU
11LouisvilleMichigan St.UCLASyracuseUtah St.Drake
12Oregon St.GeorgetownUCSBWinthrop
13Ohio ULibertyUNCGNorth Texas
14ColgateMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.DrexelGrand CanyonIona
16Oral RobertsHartfordNorfolk St.Mount St. Mary’sTexas SouthernAppalachian St.

Four Alternates

69Wichita St.
70Colorado St.
71Saint Louis
72Boise St.

Note: We have already begun putting our

Bracketnomics Data into a spreadsheet, and we will

have it completed late tonight. We will then spend

Monday looking at the data and be ready to reveal

our opinions on the field on Tuesday. Look for our

annually most read post to publish

Tuesday afternoon, approximately 3 PM Eastern

Daylight Time, giving you plenty of time to read and

then fill out the brackets in your competitions.

March 8, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/8/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaWest Virginia
3HoustonArkansasKansasVillanova
4PurdueTexasOklahoma St.Florida St.
5VirginiaTexas TechUSCTennessee
6CreightonColoradoClemsonOklahoma
7OregonMissouriWisconsinFlorida
8BYULSUVirginia TechConnecticut
9RutgersSan Diego St.Loyola (Chi.)North Carolina
10MarylandSt. BonaventureUCLALouisville
11Georgia TechMichigan St.VCUColorado St.
12Western Ky.ToledoBoise St.DrakeWichita St.Xavier
13UCSBWinthropLibertyColgate
14UNCGS. Dakota St.Morehead St.Abilene Chr.
15E. WashingtonGeorgia St.SienaCleveland St.
16NortheasternBryantGrand CanyonHartfordNorfolk St.Prairie View A&M

Teams in Bold have secured automatic bids

The Bad Side of the Bubble

69Ole Miss
70Syracuse
71Utah St.
72Saint Louis
73Seton Hall
74SMU
75St. John’s
76North Carolina St.

Bracketnomics Tutorial Release Coming This Week!

Until recently, when our breakthrough Sabertooth Baseball Game went viral due to a Facebook post that we still do not know who the benevolent benefactor of great news is, our most popular annual activity here on the PiRate Ratings has been “Bracketnomics.”

For years, we have used technical statistics and other data to isolate the real March Madness contenders from the pretenders and to eliminate certain higher seeds due to their possessing “uh-oh” stats that show them ripe for a quick upset.

We were all set to debut our latest evolution of Bracketnomics last year, until Covidnomics defeated all sports in March of 2020. It gave us extra time to scour our resources and to look for more trends, in addition to the tried and true methods we have used for years.

Coming Friday, we will release our Bracketnomics 2021 Tutorial, so you can have the weekend to look it over and use the information the best way you know how. Please let the best way you know how be a method that involves no financial risk.

The PiRate Ratings personal creation of “R+T” Rating, schedule strength, and the Four Factors still hold considerable importance, but the handicapping of each data point has changed. Other sets of data added to the mix should let you clearly see which teams have the look of past national champions, Final Four participants, and even Cinderella Mid-Majors that might be ready to wear the slipper until there are just eight teams remaining.

Oh, and if you haven’t heard about our advanced analytics tabletop baseball game that went viral over the weekend, you can check it out at our sister site: https://sabertoothbaseball.wordpress.com and order a game at https://sabertooth-baseball.square.site , or click the link in the WordPress site.

March 7, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, March 7, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
HoustonMemphis9.3
East CarolinaCincinnati-0.5
LibertyNorth Alabama14.3
BaylorTexas Tech9.4
TCUTexas-9.2
WinthropCampbell10.3
IowaWisconsin7.9
NorthwesternNebraska4.7
Michigan St.Michigan-10.3
MarylandPenn St.2.3
HofstraDelaware2.9
James MadisonElon6.2
NortheasternWilliam & Mary8.7
CharlestonDrexel-2.0
North Carolina CentralSouth Carolina St.8.6
Loyola (Chi.)Drake4.6
Oregon St.Oregon-4.2
Georgia St.Louisiana3.8
Appalachian St.Coastal Carolina-3.8
TennesseeFlorida2.4
UNCGEast Tennessee St.2.2
MercerVMI0.2
Oral RobertsNorth Dakota8.0
North Dakota St.Missouri-Kansas City4.4

Today’s Conference Tournament Action

Atlantic Sun CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Jacksonville, 2PM EST, ESPN

1 Liberty vs. 5 North Alabama

Liberty has already clinched an automatic bid , as UNA is ineligible due to their transition phase to Division 1

Big South CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

12 PM , ESPN

3 Campbell at 1 Winthrop

Colonial Athletic Quarterfinals

At James Madison in Harrisonburg, VA

1 James Madison vs. 8 Elon

4 Hofstra vs. 5 Delaware

2 Northeastern vs. 7 William & Mary

3 College of Charleston vs. 6 Drexel

Missouri Valley CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Saint Louis, 2 PM EST, CBS

1 Loyola (Chi.) vs. 2 Drake

Southern Conference Semifinals

Asheville, NC

1 UNC-Greensboro vs. 5 East Tennessee St.

6 VMI vs. 7 Mercer

Summit League 2nd Half of Quarterfinals

at Sioux Falls, SD

4 Oral Roberts vs. 5 North Dakota

3 North Dakota St. vs. 6 Missouri-Kansas City

Sun Belt Conference Semifinals

at Pensacola, FL

1E Georgia St. vs. 2W Louisiana

2E Coastal Carolina vs. 4E Appalachian St.

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty 22-5

Morehead St. 23-7

March 6, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Saturday, March 6, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
St. BonaventureSaint Louis0.3
VCUDavidson3.9
Notre DameFlorida St.-6.7
ClemsonPittsburgh5.1
LouisvilleVirginia-0.9
North CarolinaDuke3.1
UMBCUMass-Lowell6.5
VermontHartford8.7
Wichita St.South Florida10.0
West VirginiaOklahoma St.4.3
Kansas St.Iowa St.1.4
ConnecticutGeorgetown8.6
ProvidenceVillanova-5.8
CreightonButler12.5
St. John’sSeton Hall0.9
MarquetteXavier-0.2
Montana St.Sacramento St.3.8
Weber St.Northern Colorado10.0
Portland St.Southern Utah-2.8
MinnesotaRutgers-0.4
PurdueIndiana5.9
Ohio St.Illinois-1.7
UC DavisHawaii0.3
Cal St. NorthridgeUC-Riverside-10.2
Long Beach St.UC-Irvine-9.8
UC San DiegoCal St. Fullerton3.2
UCSBCal Poly22.6
MarshallCharlotte14.2
Western KentuckyOld Dominion8.3
North TexasUAB6.4
ElonTowson4.2
William & MaryUNC-Wilmington-2.9
Delaware St.Morgan St.-11.3
Loyola (Chi.)Indiana St.10.8
DrakeMissouri St.3.9
Fresno St.Utah St.-10.5
WyomingUNLV0.2
BryantSacred Heart9.7
WagnerMount St. Mary’s3.4
BelmontMorehead St.4.8
UtahArizona St.2.8
UCLAUSC-2.8
NavyLoyola (MD)7.1
ColgateBoston U14.3
LafayetteBucknell3.6
ArmyAmerican4.4
KentuckySouth Carolina6.4
AuburnMississippi St.2.8
GeorgiaAlabama-9.4
MissouriLSU-0.5
ArkansasTexas A&M16.1
Ole MissVanderbilt5.8
Prairie ViewAlcorn St.9.9
Jackson St.Alabama St.12.6
Texas SouthernSouthern4.9
GramblingAlabama A&M5.7
UNCGThe Citadel9.7
ChattanoogaEast Tennessee St.-1.7
WoffordMercer1.7
FurmanVMI5.0
Northwestern St.Central Arkansas2.9
Abilene ChristianIncarnate Word19.5
McNeese St.Lamar-0.2
Houston BaptistTexas A&M-CC4.2
Sam Houston St.Stephen F. Austin1.6
New OrleansSoutheast Louisiana6.2
South Dakota St.Omaha16.2
South DakotaWestern Illinois10.3
LouisianaSouth Alabama2.6
Georgia St.Arkansas St.8.5
Coastal CarolinaTroy10.3
Texas St.Appalachian St.5.8
UT Rio Grande ValleyTarleton St.5.3
Dixie St.New Mexico St.-10.4
Grand CanyonUtah Valley8.3
California BaptistSeattle2.3
Saint Mary’sLoyola Marymount0.1
PepperdineSanta Clara3.2

Conference Tournament Update

Today’s Conference Tournament Games

America East Semifinals

6 U Mass-Lowell at 1 Maryland-Baltimore Co.

4 Hartford at 2 Vermont

Atlantic 10 Semifinals (Richmond)

1 St. Bonaventure vs. 4 Saint Louis

2 VCU vs. 3 Davidson

Colonial Athletic 1st Round (@ James Madison)

8 Elon vs. 9 Towson

7 William & Mary vs. 10 UNC-Wilmington

Missouri Valley Semifinals at Saint Louis

1 Loyola (Chi.) vs. 4 Indiana St.

2 Drake vs. 3 Missouri St.

Northeast Semifinals

4 Mount St. Mary’s at 1 Wagner

3 Sacred Heart at 2 Bryant

Ohio Valley Championship Game at Evansville

1 Belmont vs. 2 Morehead St. — 8 PM EST on ESPN2

Southern Quarterfinals at Asheville

1 UNC-Greensboro vs. 8 The Citadel

4 Chattanooga vs. 5 East Tennessee St.

2 Wofford vs. 7 Mercer

3 Furman vs. 6 VMI

Summit Quarterfinals 1st 2 Games at Sioux Falls

1 South Dakota St. vs. 8 Omaha

2 South Dakota vs. 7 Western Illinois

Sun Belt Quarterfinals at Pensacola

1E Georgia St. vs. 4W Arkansas St.

2W Louisiana vs. 3E South Alabama

1W Texas St. vs. 4E Appalachian St.

2E Coastal Carolina vs. 6E Troy

West Coast Quarterfinals at Las Vegas

4 Saint Mary’s vs. 5 Loyola Marymount

3 Pepperdine vs. 7 Santa Clara

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty — Atlantic Sun 22-5

March 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Tournament Update

Friday, March 5, 2021 (Prior to start of A-10 Games today)

Atlantic Sun

Semifinals, Today

1 Liberty vs. 7 Stetson

5 North Alabama vs. 6 Florida Gulf Coast

Note: If North Alabama wins the tournament, Liberty is the automatic NCAA Tournament qualifier.

Atlantic 10

Quarterfinals, Today, Richmond, VA

1 St. Bonaventure vs. 9 Duquesne

4 Saint Louis vs. 5 Massachusetts

2 VCU vs. 7 Dayton

3 Davidson vs. George Mason

Big South

Championship Game, Sunday at Winthrop

1 Winthrop vs. 3 Campbell

Colonial Athletic

1st Round, Saturday at James Madison

8 Elon vs. 9 Towson

7 William & Mary vs. 10 UNC-Wilmington

Horizon

Semifinals, Monday at Indianapolis

1 Cleveland St. vs. 8 Milwaukee

3 Oakland vs. 4 Northern Kentucky

Missouri Valley (Arch Madness)

Quarterfinals, Today, at Saint Louis

1 Loyola (Chi.) vs. 9 Southern Illinois

4 Indiana St. vs. 5 Evansville

2 Drake vs. 7 Northern Iowa

3 Missouri St. vs. 6 Valparaiso

Northeast

Semifinals, Saturday at Higher Seed

1 Wagner vs. 4 Mount St. Mary’s

2 Bryant vs. 3 Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley

Semifinals, Friday at Evansville

1 Belmont vs. 4 Jacksonville St.

2 Morehead St. vs. 3 Eastern Kentucky

Patriot

Quarterfinals, Saturday at Higher Seeds

1 Navy vs. Loyola (MD)

4 Army vs. 5 American

2 Colgate vs. 7 Boston U

3 Lafayette vs. 6 Bucknell

Southern

1st Round, Today at Asheville, NC

8 The Citadel vs. 9 Western Carolina

7 Mercer vs. 10 Samford

Summit

Quarterfinals, Saturday & Sunday, Sioux Falls, SD

1 South Dakota St. vs. 8 Omaha

4 Oral Roberts vs. 5 North Dakota

2 South Dakota vs. 7 Western Illinois

3 North Dakota St. vs. Kansas City

Sun Belt

1st Round, Today at Pensacola, FL

4W Arkansas St. vs. 5E Georgia Southern

3E South Alabama vs. 6W Louisiana-Monroe

4E Appalachian St. vs. 5W Little Rock

3W UT-Arlington vs. 6E Troy

West Coast

2nd Round, Today at Las Vegas

5 Loyola Marymount vs. 8 San Francisco

6 Pacific vs. 7 Santa Clara

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Friday, March 5, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
St. BonaventureDuquesne7.3
Saint LouisMassachusetts6.2
VCUDayton4.6
DavidsonGeorge Mason4.4
Miami (Fla.)Boston College0.4
Wake ForestGeorgia Tech-10.3
LibertyStetson10.6
North AlabamaFlorida Gulf Coast-1.4
Montana St.Sacramento St.3.8
Eastern WashingtonIdaho State11.8
UC DavisHawaii0.3
Cal St. NorthridgeUC Riverside-10.2
Long Beach St.UC Irvine-9.8
UC San DiegoCal St. Fullerton3.2
UC Santa BarbaraCal Poly22.6
Florida AtlanticMiddle Tennessee9.1
MarshallCharlotte14.2
Western KentuckyOld Dominion8.3
North TexasUAB6.4
QuinnipiacSaint Peter’s-2.0
RiderMonmouth-4.7
ManhattanFairfield4.7
SienaCanisius6.8
Central MichiganNorthern Illinois7.1
BuffaloKent St.4.3
AkronMiami (O)5.8
ToledoBall St.9.7
Western MichiganEastern Michigan3.2
Delaware St.Morgan St-11.3
Loyola (Chi.)Southern Illinois16.3
Indiana St.Evansville6.1
DrakeNorthern Iowa9.7
Missouri St.Valparaiso7.8
NevadaColorado St.-2.0
BelmontJacksonville St.6.2
Morehead St.Eastern Kentucky1.9
Arkansas St.Georgia Southern1.5
South AlabamaLouisiana Monroe4.6
Appalachian St.Little Rock-0.1
UT ArlingtonTroy3.9
The CitadelWestern Carolina-0.5
MercerSamford7.3
Mississippi Valley St.Arkansas-Pine Bluff-10.3
UT Rio Grande ValleyTarleton5.3
Dixie St.New Mexico St.-10.4
Grand CanyonUtah Valley8.3
California BaptistSeattle2.3
Loyola MarymountSan Francisco-0.5
PacificSanta Clara2.9

February 21, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:00 am

Sunday, February 21, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
George WashingtonRhode Island-8.7
St. BonaventureDavidson4.1
HoustonCincinnati13.0
TempleSouth Florida1.1
XavierButler9.1
Ohio St.Michigan0.7
RutgersMaryland0.1
IowaPenn St.11.0
NorthwesternWisconsin-3.8
DrakeEvansville15.7
Southern IllinoisValparaiso0.3
San Jose St.UNLV-9.2
WagnerSt. Francis (Pa)6.6
ColgateBoston U14.1
AmericanNavy-3.0

Note: Big Announcement Coming Later Today!

February 19, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

2/19/2021

SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganOhio St.
2IllinoisAlabamaVillanovaIowa
3OklahomaVirginiaWest VirginiaHouston
4Florida St.USCTexasTexas Tech
5KansasVirginia TechTennesseeCreighton
6PurdueWisconsinArkansasMissouri
7RutgersColoradoBYUOklahoma St.
8ClemsonFloridaLouisvilleLSU
9OregonUCLASan Diego St.Indiana
10Boise St.Loyola (Chi.)North CarolinaSeton Hall
11MinnesotaColorado St.DrakeVCU
12BelmontWestern Ky.StanfordSt. BonaventureConnecticutSaint Louis
13ToledoWinthropColgateUCSB
14Wright St.S.F. AustinLibertyUNCG
15VermontS. Dakota St.SienaGrand Canyon
16James MadisonE. WashingtonTexas St.WagnerPrairie ViewN.C. A&T

Last 4 Byes: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Colorado St., Drake

Last 4 In: Stanford, St. Bonaventure, Connecticut, Saint Louis

First 4 Out: Xavier, Maryland, Wichita St., St. John’s

Next 4 Out: Utah St., Ole Miss, Syracuse, Georgia Tech

Note: After careful perusal of the mock top four seeds released a week ago, we have discovered some new tendencies that the Committee gave more weight to than they usually do when there is a lot more interconference play. Thus, expect our bracketology to change a little next week showing seeds in somewhat different order from what they are this week. For instance, we believe that a team like Colgate may be drastically underrated, while a team like 23-1 Belmont may be overrated a bit even after winning their 20th consecutive game last night.

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