A PiRate Look At The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Game–April 6, 2008

A PiRate Look At The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Game–April 6, 2008

 

Game Time: Monday, April 7, 2008, 9:21 PM EDT, San Antonio, TX

Television: CBS Network

Radio: Westwood One Radio Affiliates, including (some cities may have two affiliates, but it will air on just one of them-check prior to tip-off):

New York City: WEPN 1050-AM

Los Angeles/San Diego/San Bernardino: XEPE 1700-AM

Chicago: WMVP 1000-AM

Dallas-Ft. Worth: KESM 103.3-FM

Philadelphia: WPEN 950-AM

Houston: KTRH 740-AM/ KBME 790-AM

Miami: WQAM 560-AM

Washington, D.C.: WTEM 980-AM

Atlanta: WCNN 680-AM

Boston: WEEI 850-AM

Detroit: WXYT 1270-AM/97.1-FM

San Francisco: KNBR 680-AM

Phoenix: KGME 910-AM

Seattle: KJR 950-AM

Minneapolis-St. Paul: KFAN 1130-AM/KFXN 950-AM

St. Louis: KMOX 1120-AM/KFNS 590-AM

Baltimore: WBAL 1090-AM

Denver: KKFN 950-AM/KEPN 1600-AM

Portland, OR: WFXX 1080-AM

Cincinnati: WCKY 1530-AM

Cleveland: WKNR 850-AM/WWGK 1540-AM

 

www.westwoodone.com has a live listen link as well

Teams

 

University of Memphis Tigers, Memphis, TN

Colors: Blue and Gray

Coach: John Calipari  182-63 in 8 years at Memphis 375-134 in 16 seasons overall

Assistant Coach: Derek Kellogg

Assistant Coach: John Robic

Assistant Coach: Jose “Chuck” Martin

 

2008 Record: 38-1

 

UT-Martin                 102-71

Richmond                    80-63

Oklahoma (n)               63-53

Connecticut (n)            81-70

Arkansas State            84-63

Austin Peay                104-82

Southern Cal (n)          62-58 ot

@ Middle Tennessee   65-41

@ Cincinnati                79-69

Georgetown                 85-71

Arizona                        76-63

Siena                           102-58

Pepperdine                   90-53

East Carolina               99-58

@ Marshall                  68-45

@ Rice                          77-50

Southern Miss.             83-47

@ Tulsa                        56-41

Gonzaga                       81-73

@ Houston                   89-77

UTEP                           70-64

SMU                             77-48

Central Florida            85-64

Houston                        68-59

@ UAB                         79-78

@ Tulane                     97-71

Tennessee                     62-66

Tulsa                             82-67

@ Southern Miss.        76-67

@ SMU                        72-55

UAB                             94-56

Tulane (cusa)               75-56

Southern Miss (cusa)  69-53

Tulsa (cusa)                  77-51

 

NCAA Tournament

UT-Arlington               87-63

Mississippi State          77-74

Michigan State             92-74

Texas                            85-67

UCLA                        78-63

 

PPG                            80.2

PPG allowed              61.6

FG %                          46.7

FG % Defense           38.7

3pt %                          35.1

3pt % Defense           30.3

FT %                          61.3

Rebound Avg.           40.8

Opp. Rebound           34.2

Turnovers                  11.7

Opp. Turnovers         15.8

Steals                            8.4

R + T (*)                     14.9

PiRate (^)                   19

SOS (#)                       57.49

 

(*): This is my special rating to determine extra scoring opportunities.  The formula for R+T is: R+T = R + ((.2*S) * (1.2*T)), where R = Rebound Margin, S = Avg. Steals per game, and T = Turnover Margin.  For Additional Info, see my articles of March 17 and March 18, 2008.

 

(^): The PiRate Score awards points based on scoring margin, field goal percentage difference, rebounding and turnover margins, and R+T.  A look at the last 200 Final Four teams showed more than 80% of them scoring 12 or above in this stat.  It is actually used to pick teams with the best chance of advancing to the Final Four from the original field, but it is included herein.

 

(#): SOS = strength of schedule.  For the last few years, I have been using the SOS from CBS.Sportsline.Com and multiplying by 100 to get this value.  I have surmised that these numbers can be used to gauge, by taking the difference, the average number of points per game one schedule is from another.  Thus a PiRate score of 15 versus one of 18 can be considered equal if PiRate 15 has a SOS that is 6 points better than PiRate 18.

 

Starting Lineup

 

Note: Positions given may differ from player’s recognized position.  Some teams consider their five starters to be different from the five historical positions, while I list them by the positions they play on the offensive end of the floor.

Center: #3 Joey Dorsey, 6-9 260 Sr.

6.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 64.0% FG, 0-1 3pt, 37.8% FT, 0.5 ast, 1.9 blk, 1.1 stl

Strengths:  Powerful inside player who can hit the offensive glass and get easy putbacks.  Excellent defender in the post. Can run the fast break and finish like a smaller player.

 

Weaknesses: Foul-prone. Has very little offensive game outside of 6 feet, and a terrible foul shooter.

 

Power Forward: #2 Robert Dozier, 6-9 215 Jr.

9.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 44.3% FG, 29.0% 3pt, 67.5% FT, 1.0 ast, 1.9 blk, 1.1 stl

Strengths: Aside from shot blocking, he alters shots with his long arms.  He can rebound on both ends of the floor and gets a lot of junk baskets with his offensive rebounding skills.  He can hit the jumper out to 15 feet.

 

Weaknesses:  Doesn’t move well away from the ball.  Can become foul-prone.  Shot selection can be suspect.

 

Small Forward: #14 Chris Douglas-Roberts, 6-6 200 Jr.

18.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 54.4% FG, 44.3% 3pt, 71.4% FT, 1.8 ast. 0.5 blk, 1.2 stl

Strengths: Excellent at creating offense by moving with and without the ball.  Good jump-shooter with a threat to drive to the hoop if being overplayed.  Good position defense.  Excellent on the fast break.

 

Weaknesses:  Can be taken to the basket by more powerful frontcourt players.  Can steal the ball from him when he drives to the basket.

 

Shooting Guard: #5 Antonio Anderson, 6-6 200 Jr.

8.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 41.0% FG, 33.6% 3pt, 57.7% FT, 3.5 ast, 0.3 blk, 1.2 stl

Strengths: Best defender on the team and one of the best in the nation.  Can play any of the three backcourt positions.  Good first step in drives to the basket.  Strong passer.

 

Weaknesses: Outside shooting is suspect.

 

Point Guard: #23 Derrick Rose, 6-4 195 Fr.

14.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 48.0% FG, 34.7% 3pt, 71.1% FT, 4.6 ast, 0.4 blk, 1.2 stl

Strengths: The entire package!  Rose is Magic Johnson minus four inches.  Outside shooing is good and improving; ability to drive to the hoop is outstanding.  Runs the offense as competently as any other collegian, and he’s just a freshman.

 

Weaknesses:  Can begin to hurry when opponents slow the tempo down.

 

Key Reserves

 

#20 Doneal Mack, 6-5 170 So. G/F

7.1 ppg. 1.7 rpg, 39.0% FG, 36.5% 3pt, 66.7% FT, 12.7 minutes/G

 

#0 Shawn Taggart, 6-3 230 So. F/C

6.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 50.9% FG, 37.0% 3pt, 64.6% FT, 16.9 minutes/G

 

#1 Willie Kemp, 6-2 165 So. G

5.2 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 38.3% FG, 36.7% 3pt, 64.0% FT, 14.1 minutes/G

University of Kansas Jayhawks, Lawrence, KS

Colors: Crimson and Blue

Coach: Bill Self 141-32 in 5 years at Kansas 348-137 in 15 years overall

Assistant Coach:  Danny Manning

Assistant Coach: Joe Dooley

Assistant Coach: Kurtis Townsend

 

2008 Record: 36-3

 

UL-Monroe                107-78

Missouri-KC                85-62

Washburn                    92-60

Northern Arizona       87-46

Arizona                        76-72 ot

Fla. Atlantic                 87-49

@ Southern Cal           59-55

Eastern Washington   85-47

DePaul                          84-66

Ohio U                          88-51

@ Georgia Tech          71-66

Miami (FL)                  78-54

Yale                              86-53

@ Boston College        85-60

Loyola (MD)                90-60

@ Nebraska                 79-58

Oklahoma                    85-55

@ Missouri                   76-70

Iowa State                    83-59

Nebraska                      84-49

@ Kansas State            75-84

@ Colorado                 72-59

Missouri                       90-71

Baylor                         100-90

@ Texas                       69-72

Colorado                      69-45

@ Oklahoma State      60-61

@ Iowa State               75-64

Kansas State                88-74

Texas Tech                 109-51

@ Texas A&M            72-55

Nebraska (B12)           64-54

Texas A&M (B12)       77-71

Texas (B12)                  84-74

 

NCAA Tournament

Portland State              85-61

UNLV                                      75-56

Villanova                      72-57

Davidson                      59-57

North Carolina            84-66

 

PPG                            80.7

PPG allowed              61.3

FG %                          50.8

FG % Defense           37.9

3pt %                          39.9

3pt % Defense           32.9

FT %                          69.8

Rebound Avg.           38.7

Opp. Rebound           30.9

Turnovers                  13.1

Opp. Turnovers         15.6

Steals                            8.8

R + T (*)                     13.1

PiRate (^)                   19

SOS (#)                       55.94

 

Starting Lineup

 

Center: #00 Darrell Arthur, 6-9 225 So.

12.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 53.8% FG, 16.7% 3pt, 69.6% FT, 0.8 ast, 1.4 blk, 0.5 stl

Strengths: Great leaper with speed and quickness.  Decent shooting range up to 15 feet.  Excellent low post moves and inside shooting touch.

 

Weaknesses: Major problem with committing fouls.  Good defenders can steal the ball from him when he drives to the basket.

 

Power Forward: #32 Darnell Jackson, 6-8, 250 Sr.

11.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 62.5% FG, 2-6 3pt, 68.7% FT, 1.1 ast, 0.5 blk, 0.8 stl

Strengths: Tough inside player who can rebound the ball and get second-chance points.  Good post defender when it comes to preventing the ball from entering the post.  Doesn’t make silly mistakes.

 

Weaknesses: Not much quickness may allow Dozier to have a much better than normal game.  Defense is not great once opponent gets ball in the low post.

 

Small Forward: #25 Brandon Rush, 6-6 210 Jr.

13.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 43.2% FG, 42.3% 3pt, 78.3% FT, 2.1 ast, 0.8 blk, 0.8 stl

Strengths: Plays taller than 6-6.  Has excellent speed and quickness.  Excellent shooting range to the NBA 3-point line.  Very tough perimeter defender who can also guard a bigger opponent.

 

Weaknesses: Not much explosiveness to the hoop when he has the ball.  If forced to go to the left, he just about won’t shoot or drive.

 

Shooting Guard: #15 Mario Chalmers, 6-1 190 Jr.

12.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 52.1% FG, 47.3% 3pt, 73.4% FT, 4.4 ast, 0.6 blk, 2.4 stl

Strengths: Great shooting range.  Excellent passing skills, strong on the ball defender and has tricky quickness to jump in passing lanes.

 

Weaknesses: Not a great ball-handler for his position and could be prone into making turnovers against Memphis’s pressure defense.

 

Point Guard: #3 Russell Robinson, 6-1 205 Sr.

7.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 42.1% FG, 31.8% 3pt, 77.9% FT, 4.1 ast, 0.4 blk, 2.0 stl

Strengths: One of the best defensive players in college ball.  Can smother a high-scoring opponent.  Plays intelligently and won’t make many mistakes,

 

Weaknesses: Not a great shooter.  

Key Reserves

 

#4 Sherron Collins, 5-11 205 So. G

9.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 46.5% FG, 36.6% 3pt, 76.8% FT, 23.5 minutes/G

 

#24 Sasha Kaun, 6-11 250 Sr. C

7.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 62.6% FG, 0 3pt, 54.1% FT, 17.6 minutes/G

 

#45 Cole Aldrich, 6-11 240 Fr. C

2.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 51.8% FG, 0 3pt, 68.4% FT, 8.4 minutes/G

Predictions

 

Las Vegas Spread: Memphis by 1 ½ points with Over/Under of 146.5 points.

PiRate System: About the same-Memphis by a tiny amount

 

My personal thoughts:  This game will be decided by the pace of the backcourts.  If Kansas’s outstanding perimeter defenders repeat their performance of the last game against North Carolina, they will slow Memphis down.

 

Depth could be a factor, but with the extra timeouts, Kansas won’t feel the effects of not having Rodrick Stewart, while Memphis won’t miss a beat without Andre Allen.

 

If I had to make a pick against the spread, I’d go with KU at +1.5 and Under 146.5.

 

I picked Kansas to win the National Championship before the season and before the start of March Madness, so I’m sticking with the Jayhawks to cut the nets.  Enjoy!

This is the last blog entry for a month.  Look for a Kentucky Derby Preview on Friday, May 2. 

A ONEderful Final Four–April 4, 2008

 

A ONEderful Final Four

Wow!  All four number one seeds have advanced to the Final Four for the first time since teams began to be seeded in the NCAA Tournament.  I did a little research and went back 60 years trying to find a year where the top team in each region advanced to the Final Four, and I couldn’t find another season where such a thing happened.  I found only one year where the four semifinalists were all ranked in the final regular season Top Five.  In 1970, UCLA, St. Bonaventure, Jacksonville, and New Mexico State finished the regular season ranked second, third, fourth, and fifth respectively.  Number one Kentucky fell to Jacksonville in the Mid-east Regional Finals.  The 1970 Final Four entered semifinal play with an incredible combined record of 103-6 (143-9 this year).  Jacksonville, led by twin towers Artis Gilmore and Pembrook Burroughs downed St. Bonaventure, who was missing superstar center Bob Lanier.  UCLA, a team that was not picked to win its conference after losing Kareem Abdul Jabbar to the Milwaukee Bucks, turned out to have the best frontline trio in the nation with Steve Patterson, Sidney Wicks, and Curtis Rowe, combined with fabulous guards Henry Bibby and John Vallely.  The Bruins dismissed New Mexico State.  In the title game, Wicks did the unbelievable by blocking shots by Gilmore multiple times, leading the Bruins to their fourth consecutive title and sixth in the last seven seasons.

This Final Four is the first one in many years where a good case could be made for any of the quartet to win all the marbles.  All four teams have unique features that other teams will have a tough time stopping or attacking, yet all four teams have Achilles’ heals that can be exploited.   If the semifinal matchups were best of seven series, I would expect both to go seven games.  This doesn’t mean that the three final games will be nail-biters; it means that any of this group could potentially blow out any of the other teams.

Here is a breakdown of the two Semi-final Games.

Saturday, April 5, 2008

6:07 PM EDT

UCLA 35-3  vs. Memphis 37-1

UCLA	Stat	Memphis
73.8	PPG	80.3
58.5	Def PPG	61.6
47.9	FG%	46.9
41.8	Def. FG%	38.8
35.1	3pt %	35.1
32.3	Def 3pt %	30.3
73.0	FT%	60.7
+8.6	Reb. Margin	+6.6
+1.8	TO Margin	+4.2
7.3	Stls/G	8.4
4.3	Blk/G	6.2
11.8	R+T	15.1
15	PiRate	19
57.71	SOS	57.49

 

For explanation of R+T, PiRate, and SOS, see Bracketnomics 505 from March 17, 2008, and the subsequent blog story of March 18, 2008.  I have adjusted SOS by already multiplying by 100.

Starters

Center

UCLA: #42 Kevin Love, 6-10 260 Fr.

17.6 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 56.5% FG, 36.3% 3pt, 76.4% FT, 1.9 ast, 1.4 blk, 0.7 stl

Memphis: #3 Joey Dorsey, 6-9 260 Sr. (plays this position as a forward)

7.1 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 65.2% FG, 0-1 3pt, 37.8% FT, 0.5 ast, 1.9 blk, 1.1 stl

Power Forward

UCLA: #23 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, 6-8 230 Jr.

8.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 48.3% FG, 20.0% 3pt, 68.1% FT, 1.6 ast, 0.4 blk, 1.1 stl

Memphis: #2 Robert Dozier, 6-9 215 Jr.

9.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 44.4% FG, 29.0% 3pt, 67.5% FT, 1.0 ast, 1.8 blk, 1.1 stl

Small Forward

UCLA: #3 Josh Shipp, 6-5 220 Jr.

12.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 43.7% FG, 32.4% 3pt, 78.6% FT, 2.2 ast, 0.4 blk, 1.4 stl

Memphis: #14 Chris Douglas-Roberts, 6-6 200 Jr.

17.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 54.5% FG, 41.6% 3pt, 70.9% FT, 1.8 ast, 0.4 blk, 1.2 stl

Shooting Guard

UCLA: #0 Russell Westbrook, 6-3 187 So.

12.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 46.2 FG%, 32.4% 3pt, 71.3% FT, 4.3 ast, 0.2 blk, 1.6 stl

Memphis: #5 Antonio Anderson, 6-6 200 Jr.

8.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 40.9% FG, 33.3% 3pt, 57.7% FT, 3.5 ast, 0.3 blk, 1.2 stl

Point Guard

UCLA: #2 Darren Collison, 6-1 165 Jr.

14.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 49.1% FG, 53.0% 3pt, 87.2% FT, 3.8 ast, 0.1 blk, 1.8 stl

Memphis: #23 Derrick Rose, 6-4 195 Fr.

14.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 48.1% FG, 34.7% 3pt, 69.8% FT, 4.7 ast, 0.4 blk, 1.2 stl

Key Reserves

UCLA

#14 Lorenzo Mata-Real, 6-9 240 Sr. C

3.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg

#12 Alfred Aboya, 6-8 235 Jr. F/C

2.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg

#13 James Keefe, 6-8 220 So. F

2.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg

Memphis

#20 Doneal Mack, 6-5 170 So. G/F

7.2 ppg, 1.7 rpg

#0 Shawn Taggart, 6-3 230 So. F/C

6.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg

#1 Willie Kemp, 6-2 165 So. G

5.3 ppg, 1.0 rpg

Note: Backup point guard Andre Allen has been suspended for the Final Four.

My Guess at the Game

UCLA will slow the tempo down in this game and force Memphis to beat them in a half-court game.  The Bruins talented backcourt should not have too much difficulty avoiding the costly turnovers that lead to cheap baskets for Memphis.  The Tigers will need a half-dozen cheap baskets to win this one.

UCLA will isolate Love and/or Mbah a Moute down low with the hopes of forcing Dorsey to foul.  Dorsey has a problem with fouling in the paint, and he will have to log at least 30 minutes for the Tigers to compete.

If the game becomes an issue of depth, the sons of Westwood have superior inside reserves, while the bullies from the Bluff have superior perimeter reserves.

Basically, when two outstanding teams face off on a neutral court, you look at which team will get more scoring chances by way of rebounding and turnover margin, and you look at which team is likely to get more high percentage shot opportunities.

When I look at all the statistics and talent, I definitely see evidence that UCLA will win the battle of the boards by a moderate amount, while Memphis forces the Bruins into a few extra turnovers.  It comes down to who gets the open shots.  I don’t think the Bruins will give up more than a handful of easy shots, while Memphis will gamble for steals and give up some open looks.   I look for Darren Collison to burn the Tigers from outside and open up the lane for Love about 12 minutes into the game.  It will lead to Dorsey committing some fouls and having to go to the bench.  When that happens, UCLA will get some offensive rebounds and putbacks.  Look for UCLA to advance to the title game.

Prediction: UCLA 67  Memphis 59

Saturday, April 5, 2008

Approximately 8:47 PM EDT

Kansas 35-3  vs. North Carolina 36-2

Kansas	Stat	N. Carolina
80.6	PPG	89.2
61.2	Def PPG	72.2
50.7	FG%	49.1
37.9	Def. FG%	42.3
40.1	3pt %	37.9
33.3	Def 3pt %	32.6
69.6	FT%	75.5
+7.7	Reb. Margin	+11.5
+2.6	TO Margin	+1.8
8.8	Stls/G	8.2
5.9	Blk/G	4.5
13.2	R+T	15.0
19	PiRate	15
55.94	SOS	59.21

Starters

Center

Kansas: #00 Darrell Arthur, 6-9 225 So.

12.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 54.3% FG, 16.7% 3pt, 69.6% FT, 0.8 ast, 1.3 blk, 0.5 stl

North Carolina: #50 Tyler Hansbrough, 6-9 250 Jr.

22.8 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 54.2% FG, 0% 3pt, 80.6% FT, 0.9 ast, 0.3 blk, 1.5 stl

Power Forward

Kansas: #32 Darnell Jackson, 6-8, 250 Sr.

11.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 62.0% FG, 2-6 3pt, 68.3% FT, 1.1 ast, 0.5 blk, 0.7 stl

North Carolina: #21 Deon Thompson, 6-8 240 So.

8.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 48.1% FG, 0% 3pt, 58.6% FT, 1.1 ast, 1.3 blk, 0.7 stl

Small Forward

Kansas: #25 Brandon Rush, 6-6 210 Jr.

13.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 42.3% FG, 42.9% 3pt, 79.0% FT, 2.1 ast, 0.8 blk, 0.9 stl

North Carolina: #1 Marcus Ginyard, 6-5 218 Jr.

7.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 44.7% FG, 42.9% 3pt, 64.9% FT, 2.2 ast, 0.1 blk, 1.1 stl

Shooting Guard

Kansas: #15 Mario Chalmers, 6-1 190 Jr.

12.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 52.2% FG, 47.6% 3pt, 74.6% FT, 4.4 ast, 0.6 blk, 2.4 stl

North Carolina: #22 Wayne Ellington, 6-4 200 So.

16.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 47.1% FG, 41.4% 3pt, 82.5% FT, 2.1 ast, 0.2 blk, 1.1 stl

Point Guard

Kansas: #3 Russell Robinson, 6-1 205 Sr.

7.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 42.2% FG, 32.1% 3pt, 77.5% FT, 4.1 ast, 0.4 blk, 2.0 stl

North Carolina: #5 Ty Lawson, 5-11 195 So.

12.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 52.3% FG, 35.8% 3pt, 82.9% FT, 5.3 ast, 0.0 blk (1), 1.6 stl

Key Reserves

Kansas

#4 Sherron Collins, 5-11 205 So. G

9.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg

#24 Sasha Kaun, 6-11 250 Sr. C

7.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg

#5 Rodrick Stewart, 6-4, 200 Sr. G

2.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg

North Carolina

#14 Danny Green, 6-6 210 Jr. F/G

11.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg

#32 Alex Stepheson, 6-9 235 So. F/C

4.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg

#11 Quentin Thomas, 6-3 190 Sr. G

3.2 ppg, 1.4 rpg

My Guess at the Game

This has the potential to rank among the best semifinal games in the last 50 years (a list of some great ones follows this preview).

Much like the first game, this game will be won by the team that gets the combination of the most extra scoring opportunities and best looks at the basket.  Can any team playing North Carolina keep the rebounding margin at a stand-off?  Kansas can probably keep the Tar Heel advantage at a minimum and then offset that advantage by winning the turnover margin battle.  That means this game will be decided by shot selection and prevention of good shots.  If that is the case, Kansas is one of the best, if not the best, teams at winning the battle for high percentage shots.

North Carolina still has the ace in the hole in Hansbrough.  He can neutralize the perceived Jayhawk advantage by matching the entire Arthur and Jackson combined in scoring and rebounding.  Again, I think the frontcourts of both teams are basically even.

In the backcourt, I see a decided advantage that I think will eventually tilt the game in the winner’s advantage.  North Carolina has a terrific trio in Ellington, Lawson, and Green.  The Tar Heel guards can destroy an opponent in a matter of two minutes with a fast-break outburst.  One momentary lapse can lead to a 10-0 Carolina run.

So, you see me picking the Tar Heels, yes?  No!  I see Kansas with the advantage in the backcourt.  The Jayhawks perimeter players, Rush, Chalmers, Robinson, Collins, and Stewart, are the best combined quintet of guards in the nation.  As a whole, this group has superior scoring ability from the outside (Chalmers & Rush), the best penetrator to the hoop (Rush), excellent passing (Chalmers, Robinson, Collins), excellent ball hawks (Chalmers & Robinson), excellent defenders on the ball (all five, especially Rush), and even some added rebounding strength (Rush & Chalmers).  Collins could not only start on most of the other NCAA Tournament teams, he could be an all-conference player on most of them!

I see Kansas controlling the tempo for most of the game and preventing North Carolina from making any great, extended scoring runs.  Kansas had its shock game against Davidson, and the Jayhawks have yet to play their best game in this tournament.  I think they will Saturday, and I think it will put them in the Title Game on Monday Night.

Prediction: Kansas 77  North Carolina 73

My List of the 20 Best Semifinal Games in Last 50 Seasons

1959: California 64  Cincinnati 58

1962: Cincinnati 72  UCLA 70

1968: UCLA 101  Houston 69

1969: UCLA 85  Drake 82

1971: Villanova 92   Western Kentucky 89 2ot

1973: UCLA 70  Indiana 59

1974: North Carolina State 80  UCLA 77 2ot

1975: UCLA 75  Louisville 74 ot

1977: North Carolina 84  UNLV 83

          Marquette 51  UNCC 49

1978: Duke 90  Notre Dame 86

1983: Houston 94  Louisville 81

1987: Indiana 97  UNLV 93

1989: Michigan 83  Illinois 81

1991: Duke 79  UNLV 77

          Kansas 79  North Carolina 73

1992: Duke 81  Indiana 78

1996: Kentucky 81  U Mass. 74

1998: Kentucky 86  Stanford 85 ot

2004: Connecticut 79  Duke 78

PiRate BCS National Championship Game Preview and Viewer’s Guide

The NCAA Football Bowl Division BCS Championship Game

Monday, January 7, 2008

8:30 PM EST

Fox Network

New Orleans Superdome

Ohio State 11-1 vs. LSU 11-2

How They Got To New Orleans
Ohio State Buckeyes
Location	Columbus, Ohio
Colors	Scarlet and Gray
League	Big 10 Conference
National Titles (*)	2002, 1968, 1957, 1954, 1942
* Awarded by AP, UPI, BCS, and other official polls
Unofficial Nat’l Titles (%)	1998, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1970,
	1969, 1961, 1944, 1933
% Awarded by various unofficial polls and computers
Head Coach	Jim Tressel
Record at Ohio State	73-15 in 7th season
Bowl Record at OSU	4-2
Overall Record	146-58-2
Offensive Coordinator	Jim Bollman
Defensive Coordinator	Jim Heacock/Luke Fickell
Opponents	OSU	Opp
Youngstown State	38	6
Akron	20	2
at Washington	33	14
Northwestern	58	7
at Minnesota	30	7
at Purdue	23	7
Kent State	48	3
Michigan State	24	17
at Penn State	37	17
Wisconsin	38	17
Illinois	21	28
at Michigan	14	3
Per Game Stats	OSU	Opp
Points	32.0	10.7
First Downs	20.9	12.9
Rushing Attempts	43.6	31.4
Rushing Yards	200.7	77.1
Avg per Rush	4.6	2.5
Rush Yds NFL method *	209.0	99.6
Passing Yards	196.4	148.2
Pass Yds NFL method *	188.1	125.7
Pass Completions	16.3	16.4
Pass Attempts	25.3	31.6
Interceptions	1.0	0.8
Sacks	3.5	1.2
Sack Yards	22.5	8.3
Punting Avg.	40.4	39.2
Punt Returns	38.6	6.8
Net Punting	36.5	33.9
Fumbles-LST	1.4-0.6	1.3-0.7
Penalties-Yds	5.4-40.9	4.1-37.2
Yds per Interception Ret.	17.8	7.4
Avg. Kick Return	17.6	21.4
Time of Possession	32:11	27:49
3rd down conversion %	47.6	30.7
PAT %	97.8	100.0
FG %	81.0	70.0
* The NFL figures QB sacks as lost passing yards and not rushing yards
This is a better barometer of both the rushing and passing games Louisiana State Tigers Location Baton Rouge, LA Colors Purple and Gold League Southeastern Conference National Titles (*) 2003, 1958 * Awarded by AP, UPI, BCS, and other official polls Unofficial Nat’l Titles (%) 1936, 1935, 1908 % Awarded by various unofficial polls and computers Head Coach Les Miles Record at LSU 33-6 in 3rd year Bowl Record at LSU 2-0 Overall Record 61-27 Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton Defensive Coordinator Bo Pelini Opponents LSU Opp at Mississippi St. 45 0 Virginia Tech 48 7 Middle Tennessee 44 0 South Carolina 28 16 at Tulane 34 9 Florida 28 24 at Kentucky 37 43 3 OT Auburn 30 24 at Alabama 41 34 Louisiana Tech 58 10 at Ole Miss 41 24 Arkansas 48 50 3 OT Tennessee 21 14 Per Game Stats LSU Opp Points 38.7 19.6 First Downs 22.4 16.5 Rushing Attempts 43.3 33.4 Rushing Yards 218.9 103.1 Avg per Rush 5.1 3.1 Rush Yds NFL method * 233.8 122.0 Passing Yards 229.2 180.8 Pass Yds NFL method * 214.3 161.9 Pass Completions 18.2 15.2 Pass Attempts 31.9 32.7 Interceptions 0.9 1.6 Sacks 2.5 2.2 Sack Yards 18.9 14.9 Punting Avg. 43.4 39.2 Punt Return Avg. 5.8 9.5 Net Punting 35.5 36.5 Fumbles-LST 1.2-0.2 1.8-0.9 Penalties-Yds 8.7-64.9 4.6-37.2 Yds per Interception Ret. 11.6 9.5 Avg. Kick Return 20.1 20.5 Time of Possession 32:07 27:53 3rd down conversion % 45.4 36.0 PAT % 100.0 96.7 FG % 78.1 83.3

L S U Offense							Ohio State Defense
Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr	||	Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr
SE	1	Brandon LaFell	6-3	205	So	||	DE	97	Cameron Heyward	6-6	282	Fr
	2	Demetrius Byrd	6-2	195	Jr	||		9	Rob Rose	6-5	294	S0
	28	R.J. Jackson	6-0	205	So	||	DT	84	Doug Worthington	6-7	271	So
LT	70	Ciron Black	6-5	320	So	||		93	Nader Abdallah	6-5	297	Jr
	76	Jarvis Jones	6-7	294	Fr	||	DT	92	Todd Denlinger	6-3	286	So
LG	79	Herman Johnson	6-7	356	Jr	||		72	Dexter Larimore	6-3	304	Fr
	63	Ryan Miller	6-6	302	Jr	||	DE	50	Vernon Gholston	6-4	264	Jr
	62	Robert Smith	6-2	273	Sr	||		78	Alex Barrow	6-5	275	Jr
C	74	Brett Helms	6-2	270	Jr	||	WLB	1	Marcus Freeman	6-2	236	Jr
	63	Ryan Miller	6-6	302	Jr	||		36	Brian Rolle	5-11	212	Fr
RG	65	Lyle Hitt	6-2	299	So	||	MLB	33	James Laurinaitis	6-3	240	Jr
	76	Jarvis Jones	6-7	294	Fr	||		38	Austin Spitler	6-3	234	So
	63	Ryan Miller	6-6	302	Jr	||	SLB	6	Larry Grant	6-3	226	Sr
RT	71	Carnell Stewart	6-5	320	Sr	||		26	Tyler Moeller	6-1	203	Fr
	78	Joseph Barksdale	6-4	310	Fr	||	CB	2	Malcolm Jenkins	6-1	208	Jr
TE	82	Richard Dickson	6-2	235	So	||		32	Eugene Clifford	6-2	191	Fr
	89	Keith Zinger	6-4	250	Sr	||		13	Andre Amos	6-1	179	So
	81	Mit Cole	6-4	260	Sr	||	SS	4	Kurt Coleman	5-11	187	So
FL	9	Early Doucet	6-0	207	Sr	||		3	Jamario O’Neal	6-1	199	Jr
	80	Terrence Toliver	6-5	190	Fr	||	FS	21	Anderson Russell	6-0	205	So
	87	Jared Mitchell	5-11	198	So	||		8	Aaron Gant	6-0	201	So
QB	15	Matt Flynn	6-3	227	Sr	||	CB	20	Donald Washington	6-1	188	So
	11	Ryan Perrilloux	6-3	227	So	||		5	Chimdi Chekwa	6-1	185	Fr
	14	Andrew Hatch	6-3	214	So	||
TB	18	Jacob Hester	6-0	228	Sr	||
	5	Keiland Williams	6-0	226	So	||
	32	Charles Scott	5-11	226	So	||
	8	Trindon Holliday	5-5	160	So	||
	26	Richard Murphy	6-1	197	Fr	||
FB	45	Quinn Jackson	6-2	238	Jr	||
	40	Shawn Jordan	5-11	254	Sr	||
Ohio State Offense							L S U Defense
Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr	||	Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr
WR	80	Brian Robiskie	6-3	196	Jr	||	LE	93	Tyson Jackson	6-5	291	Jr
	12	Dane Sanzenbacher	5-11	178	Fr	||		47	Tremaine Johnson	6-2	282	Jr
LT	75	Alex Boone	6-8	313	Jr	||	LT	72	Glenn Dorsey	6-2	303	Sr
	73	Josh Kerr	6-5	276	Fr	||		97	Al Woods	6-4	315	So
LG	71	Steve Rehring	6-8	345	Jr	||		90	Ricky Jean-Francois	6-3	285	So
	78	Dan Dye	6-3	277	Sr	||	RT	99	Marlon Favorite	6-1	302	Jr
C	64	Jim Cordle	6-4	302	So	||		92	Drake Nevis	6-1	288	Fr
	66	Andrew Moses	6-3	272	So	||		90	Ricky Jean-Francois	6-3	285	So
RG	63	Ben Person	6-4	321	Jr	||	RE	49	Kirston Pittman	6-4	252	Sr
	77	Connor Smith	6-5	317	Fr	||		84	Rahim Allen	6-3	254	So
RT	74	Kirk Barton	6-6	300	Sr	||		90	Ricky Jean-Francois	6-3	285	So
	70	Byrant Browning	6-4	311	Fr	||	SLB	35	Luke Sanders	6-5	242	Sr
TE	88	Rory Nicol	6-5	250	Jr	||		56	Perry Riley	6-1	232	So
	86	Jake Ballard	6-7	255	So	||	MLB	48	Darry Beckwith	6-1	230	Jr
	87	Brandon Smith	6-3	240	Jr	||		54	Jacob Cuttera	6-4	235	So
WR	9	Brian Hartline	6-3	180	So	||	WLB	7	Ali Highsmith	6-1	223	Sr
	4	Ray Small	6-0	182	So	||		11	Kelvin Sheppard	6-3	223	Fr
QB	17	Todd Boeckman	6-5	243	Jr	||	CB	19	Jonathan Zenon	6-0	180	Sr
	11	Robby Schoenhoft	6-6	244	So	||		29	Chris Hawkins	6-1	175	So
TB	28	Chris Wells	6-1	235	So	||	SS	16	Craig Steltz	6-2	209	Sr
	34	Maurice Wells	5-10	195	Jr	||		24	Harry Coleman	6-2	205	So
	3	Brandon Saine	6-1	220	Fr	||	FS	27	Curtis Taylor	6-3	204	Jr
FB	49	Dionte Johnson	6-0	242	Sr	||		44	Danny McCray	6-1	206	So
	16	Trever Robinson	6-0	225	Sr	||	CB	21	Chevis Jackson	6-0	184	Sr
	42	Tyler Whaley	6-1	265	Sr	||		4	Jai Eugene	5-11	184	Fr
L S U Special Teams							Ohio State Special Teams
Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr	||	Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr
K	6	Colt David	5-9	173	Jr	||	K	85	Ryan Pretorius	5-9	175	Jr
P	36	Patrick Fisher	6-5	253	Sr	||	KO	20	Aaron Pettrey	6-1	193	So
KR	8	Trindon Holliday	5-5	160	So	||	P	15	A. J. Trapasso	6-1	224	Jr
	5	Keiland Williams	6-0	226	So	||	KR	4	Ray Small	6-0	182	So
	9	Early Doucet	6-0	207	Sr	||		34	Maurice Wells	5-10	195	Jr
PR	3	Chad Jones	6-3	218	Fr	||	PR	9	Brian Hartline	6-3	180	So
	9	Early Doucet	6-0	207	Sr	||		4	Ray Small	6-0	182	So
LS	51	Jacob O’Hair	6-2	237	Sr	||	LS	56	Dimitrios Makridis	6-1	208	Sr
Hld	15	Matt Flynn	6-3	227	Sr	||		61	Jackson Haas	6-3	228	Sr
	11	Ryan Perrilloux	6-3	227	So	||	Hld	48	Jon Thoma	6-1	199	So

Game Preview

In January of 1973, Ohio State played Southern California in the Rose Bowl and USC blew them off the Pasadena turf much like they did with Illinois this past Monday.  A year later, Ohio State returned to the Rose Bowl for a rematch with USC.  Many pundits expected another Trojan slaughter, but The Buckeyes redeemed themselves with a slaughter of their own by a score of 42-21.

Does history repeat itself?  Ohio State was blown out last year by Florida in the National Championship Game, and now they must take on another SEC team in their home state.  Ohio State has much better odds this time around, as LSU is more of a power team than a speed and finesse team.  Ohio State can hold its own against power teams.

What does play in LSU’s favor is that this is almost a home game for them.  The Tigers receive three points home field advantage, and they already own a win on this field this season.

I expect this to be a game that is slightly biased in favor of defense in the bend but don’t break mode.  I expect both teams to lose good chances to score in this game.

When it comes down to it, LSU coach Les Miles will gamble, while Ohio State coach Jim Tressel will play it close to the vest.  Will LSU’s gambles pay off or be costly?  Will Ohio State be too conservative?  This is where the game will be decided.  I’d say it’s pretty much 50-50, so you should be rewarded with a game rivaling the excitement of last week’s New England Patriots-New York Giants game.

Las Vegas Line:          LSU by 4

Totals Line:                 48½

Money Line:                LSU -165  Ohio State +150

PiRate Computer:     Tossup with predicted score of 24-24 going to overtime

Mean Rating:             LSU 26  Ohio State 25

75 other computers:    48 pick LSU and 27 pick Ohio State

75 computers avg.       LSU by 2.08 points