The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 6, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 10 NFL Previews: November 6-10, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 10

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings

                         
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

7

1

0

226

129

109.14

107.20

108.43

2

Washington

6

3

0

171

168

101.74

102.36

101.48

2

Philadelphia

5

3

0

220

144

110.07

106.36

107.24

2

Dallas

5

4

0

216

219

101.30

101.71

100.36

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Chicago

5

3

0

223

173

107.23

103.65

103.43

2

Green Bay

4

4

0

210

178

104.67

103.70

102.33

2

Minnesota

4

4

0

182

188

101.75

100.67

100.84

2

Detroit

0

8

0

137

239

89.18

90.56

90.31

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

6

2

0

174

127

107.60

104.89

105.56

2

Tampa Bay

6

3

0

200

147

105.89

103.85

102.61

2

Atlanta

5

3

0

177

154

102.86

101.51

102.13

2

New Orleans

4

4

0

216

195

101.57

100.90

100.55

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

5

3

0

234

184

104.89

103.95

104.23

3

San Francisco

2

6

0

171

230

92.37

92.64

94.36

3

Seattle

2

6

0

151

210

92.73

94.48

94.80

3

St. Louis

2

6

0

125

235

88.22

92.18

92.84

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

5

3

0

208

187

98.82

100.05

100.73

2

New England

5

3

0

168

150

97.96

101.13

100.78

2

Buffalo

5

3

0

182

169

98.19

98.80

99.16

3

Miami

4

4

0

171

163

100.66

99.80

99.85

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

6

2

0

178

116

109.21

107.03

106.91

2

Baltimore

5

3

0

171

137

104.08

103.73

103.42

3

Cleveland

3

5

0

142

160

99.50

99.87

98.13

2

Cincinnati

1

8

0

125

236

90.87

92.55

93.74

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

8

0

0

199

103

110.47

108.75

108.70

2

Indianapolis

4

4

0

167

177

101.55

101.48

100.66

2

Jacksonville

3

5

0

160

172

98.69

99.15

98.13

3

Houston  

3

5

0

196

213

98.14

98.36

98.46

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

4

4

0

190

221

93.84

95.57

97.04

2

San Diego

3

5

0

224

199

101.35

100.72

99.87

2

Oakland

2

6

0

107

201

86.91

91.22

90.88

2

Kansas City

1

7

0

126

223

88.42

91.10

92.06

2

 

Note: due to Thursday games for the next few weeks, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday Noon EST

 

NFL Previews-Week 10

 

Denver (4-4) at Cleveland (3-5)

Time:           8:15 EST Thursday 11/06

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Clear, light winds, temperature falling from upper 50’s to lower 50’s

 

PiRate:         Cleveland by 6  

Mean:           Cleveland by 6

Bias:             Cleveland by 3

Vegas:        Cleveland by 3   -150/+170

Ov/Un:        46

Strategy:     Cleveland -3, Cleveland +7 in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 33 in 13-point teaser

Brady Quinn takes over at quarterback for the Browns, and I would normally penalize Cleveland some for this.  However, he will be facing a Bronco secondary that is weak and getting weaker due to injuries.  I expect Quinn to complete about 20-25 passes for 225-275 yards.  The Browns’ running attack should pick up some important yardage, even though it will be measured in quality and not quantity.

 

Jay Cutler is on pace to pass for more than 4,000 yards, but it’s starting to look like Denver’s offense will not score enough points to counter their atrocious defense.  The Broncos could very well give up close to 450 points, and no team makes the playoffs when giving up that many points.  For this game, half of the Denver starting secondary will be out, and top tackler D.J. Williams will be out as well.

 

For this reason, and also because it is a weeknight primetime affair, I like teasing the Over to start off week 10.  Because Denver is on the decline, and this is a must win game for Romero Crennel’s team (Cleveland must finish 9-7 or better or he’s gone).  I like the Browns at home, and a field goal isn’t much to cover in what should be a high scoring game.  Even with Quinn under center, I expect Cleveland to win 34-27 or something like that.  It should be quite an entertaining game for the small percentage of fans that can pick up the NFL Network.   

 

Jacksonville (3-5) at Detroit (0-8)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Jacksonville by 10

Mean:           Jacksonville by 6

Bias:             Jacksonville by 6

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 6½         -260/+240

Ov/Un:        36½

Strategy:     Detroit +16½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +19½ in 13-point teaser, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser   

Jacksonville was humiliated by the winless Bengals last week, and now the Jags get the opportunity to go double or nothing with the final winless team.  This is a Detroit team without its starting quarterback as well.  Daunte Culpepper is the likely starter for this game, and he was cast away by the lowly Dolphins and Raiders the last two years.

 

This looks like a chance for Jacksonville to right their listing ship, but I don’t expect the Jaguars to win by two touchdowns.  They should regroup and pick up the win this week, but they will have to play well for four quarters to do so, as I cannot see them blowing any opponent off the field (their three wins were by two, three, and seven points).

 

Tennessee (8-0) at Chicago (5-3)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the upper 30’s

 

PiRate:         Chicago by 1     

Mean:           Tennessee by 3

Bias:             Tennessee by 3

Vegas:        Tennessee by 3        -150/+130  

Ov/Un:        38½

Strategy:     Chicago +13 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +16 in 13-point teaser, Under 51½ in 13-point teaser

The Titans will be facing their toughest opponent of the season this week when they head to Soldier Field.  Weather conditions will be as harsh as they have seen in a long time, and the Bears are good enough to peg a loss on the last undefeated team.

 

The Titans’ defense is riddled with key injuries, as Kyle Vanden Bosch and Keith Bulluck could both miss the game.  Albert Haynesworth cannot make all the plays.  On offense, Kerry Collins is not 100%, and if he has to come out of the game, I am not sure Vince Young is ready to return to the field.

 

Chicago’s defensive strength is against the run, and Tennessee’s primary offensive weapon is the running game.  I believe the Bears will hold LenDale White and Chris Johnson under 100 combined yards in this game and force the Titans to pass the ball to receivers who have not caught passes in 35-degree temperatures this year. 

 

Chicago’s offense could be what prevents them from pulling off the upset.  Starting quarterback Kyle Orton may or may not play due to an ankle injury.  If he plays, he won’t be very mobile against a defense that likes to send extra pass rushers.  If backup Rex Grossman plays, the Bears may see their offense grind to a halt like it did in the past.

 

I think this game will be decided on special teams play.  Chicago’s Devin Hester has yet to break a long punt return and only has one relatively long kick return.  Tennessee’s kick and punt coverage units are the team’s liabilities.

 

New Orleans (4-4) at Atlanta (5-3)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Atlanta by 2

Mean:           Atlanta by 3

Bias:             Atlanta by 3

Vegas:        Tossup         -110/-110

Ov/Un:        50½

Strategy:     Atlanta +10 in 10-point teaser, Atlanta +13 in 13-point teaser, Under 63½ in 13-point teaser   

I would tend to pick the Falcons straight up in this game, but they are returning from a West Coast trip while New Orleans had a week off.  They may not have needed Sam Baker to protect Matt Ryan against the Oakland defense, but he will be missed some this week.

 

When two teams are relatively even as a whole, it is a rare event for the home team to lose by two touchdowns.  That is the main reason why I like Atlanta in teaser plays.  The Falcons’ defense has yet to yield 28 points in any game, and I think they will hold the Saints’ outstanding offense to 27 points or less.  I cannot see Atlanta topping 35, so I love the 13-point teaser above.

 

St. Louis (2-6) at New York Jets (5-3)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Jets by 10

Mean:           Jets by 10

Bias:             Jets by 9

Vegas:         Jets by 8     -335/+325

Ov/Un:        44½

Strategy:     Jets +2 in 10-point teaser, Jets +5 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

The Rams’ modest rebound with two wins and a near loss is now a recent memory.  Last week, Arizona brought St. Louis back to reality.  The Rams have several key injuries, most notably at running back where Steven Jackson and Antonio Pittman are both hurt.  Jackson may play, but he will not be all that effective if he goes.

 

The Rams had great difficulty defending the magical arm of Kurt Warner when the former Ram returned to St. Louis.  Now, they must play in the new hometown Favreorite in the Big Apple.  Brett Favre could have his best day in a Jets’ uniform.  I expect a 250-yard passing game from number four, and I believe the running game will add another 120 or more yards. 

 

St. Louis will score about 13-17 points in this game, and I expect the Jets to top 24.  Thus, playing it a little defensively, I like teasing the Over here. 

 

Buffalo (5-3) at New England (5-3)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature in low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 1

Mean:          New England by 4

Bias:            New England by 3

Vegas:        New England by 3½ -185/+175

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     New England -185, New England -3½, New England +6½ in 10-point teaser, New England +9½ in 13-point teaser, Under 54½ in 13-point teaser   

Buffalo has found the going a little tough once they began playing teams from their own division.  Consecutive losses at Miami and at home to the Jets have brought the Bills back to the pack.  A loss this week, and the Bills will fall out of first place and possibly into last place.

 

New England is going to prod along the second half of the season and finish with a 10-6 record (give or take a game).  They should make the playoffs, but they won’t be expected to get to the AFC Championship Game.  They lost last week at Indianapolis, and I expect them to rebound with a win this week.

 

Baltimore (5-3) at Houston (3-5)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the upper 70’s

 

PiRate:         Baltimore by 2

Mean:           Baltimore by 2

Bias:             Baltimore by 2

Vegas:        Baltimore by 1   -120/+100

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Baltimore +9 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +12 in 13-point teaser, Houston +14 in 13-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser, Under 55 in 13-point teaser

Baltimore is an intriguing team.  If Joe Flacco can continue to play just a tad above average, this team can become a dark horse candidate for getting to the Super Bowl.  Even with Willis McGahee on the shelf, the Raven ground game excelled with the running of Ray Rice.  This Baltimore is considerably better than the Super Bowl Champion team eight years ago.  The defense is not as strong, but it is good enough for the Ravens to finish with 11 wins.

 

Houston is still in the mix at 3-5, but they have no room for error.  They will have to go at least 7-1 in the second half to make the playoffs.  I don’t see it happening.  They will be tough to beat at Reliant Stadium, but they are beatable.  I am looking to play both ends against the middle in the teasers in this one.

 

Seattle (2-6) at Miami (4-4)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Chance of showers, light wind, temperature in the upper 70’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 9

Mean:           Miami by 7

Bias:             Miami by 7

Vegas:        Miami by 8½      -350/+320

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     Miami -350, Miami +1½ in 10-point teaser, Miami +4½ in 13-point teaser, Over 30 in 10-point teaser, Over 27 in 13-point teaser 

The Seahawks have flown to the East Coast three times this season and have an 0-3 record to show for it.  Those losses came by a combined 98-26 score against Buffalo, the Giants, and Tampa Bay.  Miami is just a small notch behind the average strength of those three teams, and I expect more of the same in this one.  It’s asking too much for the Dolphins to cover at 8½ points, but I think their chances of winning are more than good enough to look at the Money Line.  I have a new wager I am playing this week to help make that type of wager less dangerous.

 

I am looking for the Dolphins to win their third game in a row and reveal to the rest of the league that they are serious contenders for a playoff berth.  Let’s go with a Miami win in the neighborhood of 27-20.

 

Green Bay (4-4) at Minnesota (4-4)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Green Bay by 1

Mean:           Green Bay by 1

Bias:             Tossup

Vegas:        Minnesota by 2½     -130/+120

Ov/Un:        45½

Strategy:     Green Bay +2½, Green Bay +120, Green Bay +12½ in 10-point teaser, Green Bay +15½ in 13-point teaser, Over 35½ in 10-point teaser, Over 32½ in 13-point teaser  

The first time these teams played, the teams’ two offenses had not yet put it all together.  The Vikings needed a new quarterback, and the Packers needed their new quarterback to get his feet wet.

 

This time around, both teams are considerably better on the attack side, with Gus Frerotte now the starting quarterback of the rejuvenated purple attack and Aaron Rodgers playing like a seasoned veteran.

 

This game has more meaning than just the old rivalry.  The winner will be 5-4 and on the top side of the wildcard bubble, while the loser will be 4-5 and on the bottom of the bubble.  With the Bears playing Tennessee, it gives the winner of this game a chance to be in a first place tie.

 

You might want to check Friday to see how Rodgers’ shoulder is before making a selection in this game.  Since I cannot do so due to there being a Thursday night game, I am guessing Rodgers will be just fine on Sunday.  If so, I can see the Pack pulling off the season’s sweep.

 

Carolina (6-2) at Oakland (2-6)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, moderate wind, temperature in the upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 18

Mean:          Carolina by 12

Bias:             Carolina by 13

Vegas:         Carolina by 9½         -400/+360

Ov/Un:        37½

Strategy:     Carolina -400, Carolina +½ in 10-point teaser, Carolina +3½ in 13-point teaser, Under 50½ in 13-point teaser

Did you see the Oakland-Atlanta game last Sunday?  If so, let me tell you how sorry I am that you had nothing better to do.  The Raiders act like they wish they could be doing anything else but playing football.  If they had punted on first down every time they had the ball in the first half last week, they would have finished with two more total yards than they actually had going to the locker room.

 

It is starting to look like JaMarcus Russell is going to be a miss.  At the least, he needs more time to study the game.  He cannot learn much running for his life 20 times a game.

 

The Panthers have won just one road game thus far, but it was at San Diego.  The Carolina players know this is a must win game, for they cannot afford to lose to the lowly Raiders and expect to win a division where 8-8 could be sole possession of last place.

 

I expect the Panthers to play it a little close to the vest and rely on superior talent match-ups to produce a plodding, but assured victory.  I see a 28-14 win in the offing.

 

Kansas City (1-7) at San Diego (3-5)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

 

 

PiRate:         San Diego by 17

Mean:           San Diego by 12

Bias:             San Diego by 10

Vegas:        San Diego by 15½   -1000/+700

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     San Diego -1000, San Diego -5½ in 10-point teaser, San Diego -2½ in 13-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser, Under 60 in 13-point teaser 

Okay, now just settle down a minute!  I am not advocating that you risk a grand to win a c-note.  I don’t care if the Chargers are playing a high school team from Kansas City; it’s never worth it to play at 1-10 odds.  You will have to read down at the bottom to see why I have this game listed as part of my strategy.

 

On the surface, the Chargers have about a 90-95% chance of winning, so the odds of playing at 1-10 are honest.  Still, I would never play with that type of risk.  However, I really don’t love taking San Diego in the teasers.  They could escape with a close win and still not meet the spread.

 

San Diego had an extra week to prepare for a weak team.  It could lead to a big slaughter, but it could also lead to complacency, as the players might believe they won’t have to play 100% to win the game. 

 

Indianapolis (4-4) at Pittsburgh (6-2)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain possibly mixed with snow, light wind, temperature falling from low 40’s to mid 30’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 8

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 8

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 8

Vegas:        No Line       

Ov/Un:        None

Strategy:     None

Ben Roethlisberger may or may not play, so there is no official line for this game. I have seen an unofficial line of Pittsburgh -3.  If the line was at three, I would like the Colts in a 13-point teaser at +16. 

 

New York Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia (5-3)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature dropping from near 50 to the low 40’s

                    

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 5

Mean:           Philadelphia by 1

Bias:             Philadelphia by 1

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 3     -140/+130

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     Philadelphia -3, Philadelphia -140, Philadelphia +7 in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser

Normally, I would tend to side with the Giants in this game.  However, the defending Super Bowl Champions are playing their third consecutive tough/rivalry game.  Philadelphia has had an easier road the last month.

 

While I believe New York is the better team, I like the Eagles in this one due to several intangibles.  Throw in the fact that this is the top Sunday night game to date, and the Eagles will be ready to show the country that they are back and ready to compete for the NFC title.  I believe Philly will win by five to eight points with a final score around 24-17.

 

San Francisco (2-6) at Arizona (5-3)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature falling from the low 70’s to low 60’s

 

PiRate:         Arizona by 16   

Mean:           Arizona by 14

Bias:             Arizona by 13

Vegas:        Arizona by 9½   -380/+350

Ov/Un:        46

Strategy:     Arizona -380, Arizona +½ in 10-point teaser, Arizona +3½ in 13-point teaser,  San Francisco +19½ in 10-point teaser, San Francisco +22½ in 13-point teaser, Over 36 in 10-point teaser, Over 33 in 13-point teaser   

This may not be the biggest marquee game this week, but in my opinion, it has a great chance to be an interesting game.  The 49ers are a big bust in my opinion.  They should have been competitive this season.  Instead, they are mired in a three-way tie for second (or the cellar depending on how you look at it).  Because the Cardinals will not go 3-5 in the second half of the season, San Francisco will have to go a minimum of 7-1 to win the division title.  It will never happen.  This race is over, but the 49er players may think they still have a chance.  They have enjoyed an off week, giving them some time to get accustomed to Coach Mike Singletary’s coaching.  Mike Martz has had an extra week preparing against a Cardinal defense that doesn’t remind anybody of the Titans or Ravens.

 

Kurt Warner may once again be the best quarterback in the NFL.  He is on pace to pass for close to 4,700 yards and more than 30 touchdowns.  He doesn’t have a strong running game, but Arizona can get by averaging 3.6 yards per run as long as they run on second and three and third and one.

 

I believe this will be a game that is still to be decided in the final seven minutes.  As most Monday night games go, I am looking for an offensive shootout.  Call it a 35-28 win for the Cardinals to virtually clinch the NFC West with a four game lead.

 

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Makes A Deposit

 

Last week’s picks finished 6-3-0 adding $140 to the bank account.  For the season, my picks against the spread are now 65-38-6 (63.1%).  The account balance is $1,665.  For the year, my Return on investment is 15.3%.

 

Both the straight wager and teaser picks broke even.  The teasers made me my profit last week, as I connected on five of the seven I picked.

 

For this week, I am going to play a little defensively.  The weather could play a factor in several games, but the weather forecasts are not as reliable because they are coming a day earlier than normal.  Also, there are some quarterback issues with some teams.  Since I am not a fan of these teams, when I tell you I don’t like the changes at QB, it’s strictly because it greatly changes the norm for these teams.  It’s the norm that is our friend when we try to pick games.  We are ultimately fans of our bank account, so we don’t want change we cannot believe in.

 

Here are my wagers for week 10 (all wagered to win $100):

 

1 Cleveland

-3

vs.

Denver

   

 

 

 

2 Philadelphia

-140

vs.

NY Giants

   

 

 

 

3 Arizona

-380

vs.

San Francisco

   

 

 

 

4 Money Line Parlay

 

 

 

(This 3-game parlay calculates at -130)

  Miami

-350

vs.

Seattle

  Carolina

-400

vs.

Oakland

  San Diego

-1000

vs.

Kansas City

   

 

 

 

5 10-point teaser

 

 

 

  Detroit

+16 1/2

vs.

Jacksonville

  Chicago

+13

vs.

Tennessee

  Atlanta

+10

vs.

New Orleans

   

 

 

 

6 10-point teaser

 

 

 

  NY Jets

+2

vs.

St. Louis

  Baltimore

+9

vs.

Houston

  Miami

+1 1/2

vs.

Seattle

   

 

 

 

7 10-point teaser

 

 

 

  Miami & Seattle

 

Over 30

  Green Bay

+12 1/2

vs.

Minnesota

  Carolina

+ 1/2

vs.

Oakland

   

 

 

 

8 10-point teaser

 

 

 

  Philadelphia

+7

vs.

NY Giants

  Arizona

+ 1/2

vs.

San Francisco

  San Francisco & Arizona

 

Over 36

   

 

 

 

9 13-point teaser

 

 

 

  Cleveland & Denver

 

Over 33

  Detroit

+19 1/2

vs.

Jacksonville

  Chicago

+16

vs.

Tennessee

  Atlanta

+13

vs.

New Orleans

   

 

 

 

10 13-point teaser

 

 

 

  Detroit & Jacksonville

 

Over 23 1/2

  NY Jets

+5

vs.

St. Louis

  New England

+9 1/2

vs.

Buffalo

  Baltimore

+12

vs.

Houston

   

 

 

 

11 13-point teaser

 

 

 

  NY Jets & St. Louis

 

Over 31 1/2

  New England & Buffalo

 

Under 54 1/2

  Miami

+4 1/2

vs.

Seattle

  Green Bay

+15 1/2

vs.

Minnesota

   

 

 

 

12 13-point teaser

 

 

 

  Miami & Seattle

 

Over 27

  Green Bay & Minnesota

 

Over 32 1/2

  Carolina

+3 1/2

vs.

Oakland

  Philadelphia

+10

vs.

NY Giants

   

 

 

 

13 13-point teaser

 

 

 

  Carolina & Oakland

 

Under 50 1/2

  Philadelphia & NY Giants

 

Over 30

  Arizona

+3 1/2

vs.

San Francisco

  San Francisco & Arizona

 

Over 33

     

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

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October 3, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 5 NFL Previews: October 5-6, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Five

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

Current NFL Standings & Ratings

(alphabetically by division)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Dallas Cowboys

3

1

0

120

89

105.62

110.24

106.84

2

New York Giants

3

0

0

83

43

106.18

107.84

105.87

2

Philadelphia Eagles

2

2

0

110

74

104.29

109.20

104.57

2

Washington Redskins

3

1

0

86

81

106.50

107.53

106.48

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Chicago Bears

2

2

0

94

80

108.05

107.28

103.74

2

Detroit Lions

0

3

0

59

113

77.87

91.85

85.61

3

Green Bay Packers

2

2

0

109

101

97.22

105.01

102.32

2

Minnesota Vikings

1

3

0

71

82

98.76

103.91

100.00

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Atlanta Falcons

2

2

0

90

83

92.71

99.62

97.33

2

Carolina Panthers

3

1

0

80

70

107.98

105.90

105.24

2

New Orleans Saints

2

2

0

111

100

110.15

105.57

105.01

2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3

1

0

101

78

109.21

107.44

106.40

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona Cardinals

2

2

0

106

103

98.46

101.91

100.74

3

St. Louis Rams

0

4

0

43

147

73.72

89.51

83.12

2

San Francisco 49ers

2

2

0

94

97

88.35

98.50

97.44

3

Seattle Seahawks

1

2

0

67

70

90.56

100.41

97.66

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Buffalo Bills

4

0

0

109

63

106.64

98.99

104.80

3

Miami Dolphins

1

2

0

62

64

95.36

94.46

95.63

2

New England Patriots

2

1

0

49

58

94.77

96.65

101.35

2

New York Jets

2

2

0

115

116

99.40

96.86

99.92

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Baltimore Ravens

2

1

0

65

43

102.14

98.35

102.57

3

Cincinnati Bengals

0

4

0

52

87

96.20

92.47

91.80

2

Cleveland Browns

1

3

0

46

78

91.71

93.68

94.15

2

Pittsburgh Steelers

3

1

0

77

58

100.53

100.52

103.28

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Houston Texans

0

3

0

56

99

91.61

93.98

92.99

3

Indianapolis Colts

1

2

0

52

67

99.93

97.50

101.36

2

Jacksonville Jaguars

2

2

0

79

85

102.80

98.58

102.75

3

Tennessee Titans

4

0

0

102

46

111.36

103.45

106.63

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver Broncos

3

1

0

133

117

108.27

96.97

102.92

2

Kansas City Chiefs

1

3

0

65

97

85.33

90.22

90.98

2

Oakland Raiders

1

3

0

78

101

94.83

93.54

94.74

2

San Diego Chargers

2

2

0

138

112

111.16

101.91

105.68

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFL Previews-Week Five

 

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperatures 75-80

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 25  

Mean:           Carolina by 18

Bias:             Carolina by 16

Vegas:        Carolina by 9½         -420/+350  

Ov/Un:        38

Strategy:     Kansas City +19½ in a 10-point teaser, Carolina +½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 28 in a 10-point teaser

 

Kansas City looked like a different team against Denver last week, but the Chiefs won’t run the ball for 200+ yards this week against the Panthers’ defense.  Damon Huard completed a bunch of safe passes last week, but I believe he will have to throw the ball downfield more to give his team a chance to win Sunday.

 

Carolina is not the type of team that will beat an opponent 35-10.  Their 15-point win over Atlanta last week is about the limit of their ability to win.  The Panthers should move to 4-1, but I think this will be an entertaining game for most of the day.  I’m looking for Carolina to win by about 10-14 points in the neighborhood of 27-17 to 27-13.   

 

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1)

Time:           1PM EDT            

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

 

PiRate:        Tennessee by 6

Mean:           Tennessee by 2

Bias:             Tennessee by 1

Vegas:        Tennessee by 3        -150/+130

Ov/Un:        33

Strategy:     Under 43 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +13 in 10-point teaser          

 

If you really loved the old Packers-Vikings games back in the days when Coaches Lombardi and Grant went head-to-head, this is a must-watch game for you.  These two teams are no longer in the same division, but the rivalry is still as strong as ever.  They hate each other, and it will lead to a death-match in Baltimore. 

 

The Ravens just don’t allow teams to run the ball, and Tennessee is one of the most run-dependent teams in the NFL.  The Titans have little if any weakness on the defensive side, and they will throw multiple blitz packages at rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.  I cannot see either team winning by more than a touchdown, so I am playing the home team in a 10-point teaser.  Additionally, since I believe they are going to beat each other up, I expect the final score to be around 17-13.  Keep an eye on the Raven’s injuries in this game.  They must play at Indianapolis next week, and they are almost guaranteed to bounce.  The Titans have a bye next week, and they couldn’t have asked for a better time for it.

 

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)

Time:           1PM EDT            

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Scattered thunderstorms, windy, temperature in low 80’s

 

PiRate:        San Diego by 14

Mean:           San Diego by 5

Bias:             San Diego by 4

Vegas:        San Diego by 6½            -260/+220

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Miami +16½ in 10-point teaser, Over 35 in 10-point teaser  

 

Miami actually used a real single wing offense with unbalanced line two weeks ago against New England, and the Patriots were caught with their pants down.  The Dolphins scored four touchdowns in just a handful of single wing plays, including a brilliant touchdown pass from the hands of tailback Ronnie Brown.  What’s next? Is Brown going to punt out of this formation and become a true triple-threat? 

 

Anything that upsets a teams’ normal weekly routine has an effect on the scoreboard on Sunday.  The Chargers aren’t the best defensive team in the AFC, and they have been forced to prepare for the possibility that the Dolphins will not only use it again this week, but they might have added more to the package.  I expect Miami to run this old-time formation about five to eight times, as any more usage will kill its effectiveness.

 

For these reasons, I think this should be a higher than expected scoring game, and Miami will stay in this game for longer than most people expect.  In fact, if the Dolphins’ defense can force Phillip Rivers to beat them instead of LaDainian Tomlinson, they have a decent shot at another upset.

 

Seattle (1-2) at New York Giants (3-0)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 65

 

PiRate:        New York by 18

Mean:           New York by 9

Bias:             New York by 10

Vegas:        New York by 7          -330/+270

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     New York -7, New York +3 in 10-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser

 

Both teams had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The last time these two teams played a game when both they and their opponents had two weeks to prepare were their two most recent Super Bowl games.  The Giants fared rather well in their Super Bowl, while the Seahawks did not.  That’s not the only reason I like the Giants this week.  Seattle just doesn’t show up when they travel from coast to coast.  Buffalo drilled them 34-10 in week one, so the trend continues in 2008.

 

New York can realistically think about a 6-0 start before heading to Pittsburgh in week eight.  The Giants are winning games in the same manner as they finished 2007-with strong defense and ball-control offense.  They are emulating the Packers of the 1960’s.  This team is not resting on its laurels, and Coach Tom Coughlin, like Vince Lombardi, is too tough of a guy to allow the team to just show up expecting to win.  I think the Giants can win by 14 or more points in this game, so I like them straight up as well as in a teaser.  I’m considering teasing the Over because 34 total points is easily possible in this game.

 

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

 

PiRate:        Pick

Mean:           Philadelphia by 4

Bias:             Pick

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 6            -260/+220

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Washington +16 in 10-point teaser, Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia -260, Philadelphia +4 in 10-point teaser           

 

They’re talking do-or-die up in the City of Brotherly Love.  While the Phillies are getting the headlines, the Eagles cannot afford to begin the season 2-3 in the league’s top division.  It’s possible that three NFC East teams will make the playoffs for the second straight year, but the Eagles could be the odd team out once again if they fall two games behind the other three teams.

 

The Redskins rode an emotional high all week after thumping the Cowboys in Big D last Sunday.  They can only bounce this week, but this will still be a close game.  Washington has played four close games so far, while the Eagles have played three consecutive nail-biters after toying with the St. Louis Lambs.  There’s no reason to think this game will be any different.  It should be exciting, but I think the Eagles will be ready to stay in the playoff hunt.  I’m looking at a final score of Philadelphia 24  Washington 20.

 

Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 85 (this game will be an outdoor game due to roof damage at Reliant Stadium)

 

PiRate:        Indianapolis by 5

Mean:           Indianapolis by 1

Bias:             Indianapolis by 5

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 3            -170/+150

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Indianapolis -3, Indianapolis +7 in 10-point teaser, Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis -170

 

Either the Colts are going to get off the mat and begin to play like the Colts that we all know, or this is going to quickly become a long season in Indy.  They are heading into a shootout in Houston this week, as the Texans finally get a home game.  Reliant Stadium has undergone some changes thank to Ike’s Construction Company.  That blowhard Ike took off the roof and temporarily turned it into an open venue. 

 

If Houston wins this game, Peyton’s place will be last in the AFC South.  I just cannot see that happening, especially when Indianapolis had a week off to prepare.  The Colts should square their record and win this game by at least a touchdown.  I also think this week will see them reaching 28 points for the first time this year, so I like teasing the Over.  My guess at the final score is 28-17 Indianapolis.

 

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Scattered showers, light wind, temperature in low 50’s

 

PiRate:        Green Bay by 7

Mean:           Green Bay by 7

Bias:             Green Bay by 7

Vegas:        No Line        (Aaron Rodgers ?)

Ov/Un:        No Line

Strategy:     N/A

 

As of Friday morning, Aaron Rodgers is still questionable for this game, so no official line has been issued.  Rodgers is probably worth 5-7 points, so if Matt Flynn starts and plays, Green Bay is in trouble.  The Falcons are capable of winning a low-scoring game on the road with two rookie quarterbacks playing.  The weather may also force both teams to stick to a ground game.

 

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:        Chicago by 27

Mean:           Chicago by 12

Bias:             Chicago by 15

Vegas:        Chicago by 3½         -200/+170

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Detroit +13½ in a 10-point teaser, Under 54½ in 10-point teaser

 

Chicago has a chance to take over first place in the old black and blue division.  If Rodgers cannot go for Green Bay, Chicago could easily be alone at the top of the standings if they can edge an old, weak rival this week.

 

Don’t expect Detroit to hand over the game to the Bears.  The Lions can score points, and they could force Chicago to reach the 30-point mark to beat them.  The Lions have had an extra week to prepare for this game, and they could be this week’s Kansas City Chiefs.  I don’t believe Chicago is capable of blowing Detroit off their home field, so I like the 10-point teaser in this one.  Since I believe the Bears will try to control the clock and hold the score down, I also like the Under in a teaser.  This game could easily be a 24-21 affair.  Even if it goes to overtime at 24-24, a touchdown won’t kill the teaser.  However, a big day by Devin Hester and/or Calvin Johnson could push the total over 55.

 

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)

Time:           4:05 PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Isolated thunderstorms, light wind, temperature around 60

 

PiRate:        Denver by 1

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 8

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 1

Vegas:        Denver by 3       -170/+150

Ov/Un:        47½

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +13 in 10-point teaser, Over 37½ in 10-point teaser

 

This should be a quite entertaining game.  I call it close to a 50-50 tossup.  The Broncos were tamed in Kansas City last week, and they should be more focused for this game and not suffer a four turnover repeat.

 

Tampa Bay’s offense has improved a little every week thus far, and the Bucs have to be considered a serious contender for the NFC Championship.  Their defense is strong enough to keep Jay Cutler and company from scoring 30 points, but I think Denver is still capable of scoring 24-28 points.

 

Denver’s defense has yet to prove they can stop a competent offense, and Tampa Bay should easily top 20 points in this one.  Denver has a 55-60% chance of winning outright, but they won’t win convincingly, and the game should still be up for grabs well into the fourth quarter.  Thus, I like the underdog Bucs getting double digits in a 10-point teaser, and I like the Over in a teaser.

 

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT            

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, windy, temperature in upper 80’s

 

PiRate:        Dallas by 11

Mean:           Dallas by 20

Bias:             Dallas by 17

Vegas:        Dallas by 17              -1500/+1100

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Cincinnati +27 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser

 

This is purely a numbers’ pick here.  I don’t think Cincinnati has a chance to win this game, even if Carson Palmer is able to play.  I don’t think they can stay within 10 points of Dallas even if Palmer has a 250 yard passing day.  However, 27 points is just plain ridiculous to get in a teaser.  Dallas could jump out to a 28-0 lead and then cruise to a 38-14 win, and they wouldn’t cover at 27.

 

The Cowboys have an excellent shot at topping 35 points and satisfying the Over in a teaser, but for our sake let’s hope we get that 38-14 blowout and nothing worse.

 

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, windy, temperature around 80

 

PiRate:        Buffalo by 5

Mean:           Buffalo by 6

Bias:             Buffalo by 1

Vegas:        Pick              Arizona -115, Buffalo -105

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Arizona Pk, Arizona +10 in 10-point teaser, Over 34½ in 10-point teaser

 

I’ve been keying on this game all week.  I think the Cardinals should be favored by at least a field goal, and it looks like the start of a nice gift as a pick.  Right off the bat, a 10-point teaser looks like a 13-point cushion to me. 

 

Buffalo is a good team, but they are not so good that they can go on the road 2,000 miles and beat a playoff-quality team.  I just don’t see the Bills at 5-0 on Monday morning. 

 

Arizona has only played one home game, and they looked strong in their destruction of the Dolphins.  When Miami thumped New England the following week, the 21-point Cardinals’ victory looked even better.  Throw in the fact that the Bills are making a second consecutive road trip, and I think they will be just a little off this week.  I like the Cardinals to win outright at home, and I could see this one becoming a shootout.  My guess is Arizona will win by a score similar to 35-28.

 

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers likely, windy, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:        New England by 3

Mean:           San Francisco by 5

Bias:             New England by 1

Vegas:        New England by 3           -200/+170

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     San Francisco +13 in 10-point teaser

 

This game is this week’s toughest for me to gauge.  New England lost big at home against Miami two weeks ago.  With two weeks to prepare for the 49er passing game, the Patriots’ defense should be up to the challenge.  I think they will hold J. T. O’Sullivan below his average of 240 passing yards per game. 

 

San Francisco has moved the ball this year, but the 49ers have struggled to put points on the board at times.  Their current average of 14.2 yards gained per point scored is not going to get them into the playoffs, but it could allow them to win this game.  They are likely to struggle to reach 300 yards in this game.  If they gain 280 total yards, that would mean they would fail to score 20 points.  However, the Patriots haven’t scored 20 points in any of their first three games.  Throw in the fact that they are traveling west more than 3,000 miles, and the edge begins to tilt toward the upstart home team.

 

Whether or not San Francisco can win and possibly stay in a first place tie in the weak NFC West is up for debate, but I cannot see New England winning by 14 points.  Thus, I think taking the 49ers in a 10-point teaser is the way to go with this game.

 

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2)

Time:           8:15 PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Clear, windy, temperature dropping from 80 to the low 70’s

 

PiRate:        Jacksonville by 5

Mean:           Jacksonville by 1

Bias:             Jacksonville by 2

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 4             -215/+185

Ov/Un:        36

Strategy:     Over 36, Over 26 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +6 in 10-point teaser 

 

If you have Ben Roethlisberger on your fantasy team, you could see him throw the ball 40-50 times this week.  I’m not into fantasies, so the only way that could help me is to see Big Ben connect on 25-30 of those passes for 300-400 yards and a couple of touchdowns.  What that would do is make this game a higher than expected offensive exhibition.

 

Jacksonville likes to hold onto the ball for long drives and take chunks off the clock, but I don’t think the Jaguars can do that against the Steelers’ defense.  The Jags gave up 27 to Houston, and Pittsburgh should top 20 as well even with no running attack whatsoever.  What it means to me is that Jacksonville should score points aplenty this week and win by a score of something like 31-24.  The Over 26 becomes my top priority in a 10-point teaser parlay, and if I was an aggressive guy, I might play this in every parlay.  Since my imaginary bank account is up by over a grand from the start of the season, I won’t be liberal even with play money, so I will use it just once.

 

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)

Time:           8:30 PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:        New Orleans by 13

Mean:           New Orleans by  4

Bias:             New Orleans by  7

Vegas:        New Orleans by 3           -215/+185

Ov/Un:        46½  

Strategy:     Over 36½ in 10-point teaser 

 

Monday night games tend to be higher than average scoring games.  New Orleans can score points with anybody in the league, and the Vikings can score points when their running game gets untracked.

 

Adrian Peterson is facing a Saints’ defense that surrendered 82 rushing yards in 16 attempts to Frank Gore, 65 yards in 11 attempts to Selvin Young, 96 yards on 21 attempts to Clinton Portis, and 91 yards on 10 attempts to backup Buc runner Earnest Graham.  Look for A.P. to run the ball 25 times for 150-200 yards in this game.  Minnesota will reach their season-to-date high point on the scoreboard Monday night; the Vikings should hit or top the 24-point mark.

 

Will 24 points be enough to win at the Superdome?  I’m not sure, but I am sure without a doubt that the Saints will top 14.  24 plus 14 means this game should easily go Over in a 10-point teaser.  Let’s lay off any side in this one and watch our Over win early in the second half.

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Turns A Profit For A Fourth Straight Week

 

Four weeks does not a season make, but I must admit I am quite pleased with how my picks against the spread have fared so far.  I not only made it a perfect four for four in winning weeks, I finished better than 70% for the second time in three weeks.  My picks finished 5-2-2 for 71.4% for the week, and those two pushes were on third parts of teasers.  For the season, my record against the spread stands at 27-12-3 for 69.2%, and my bank account added another $260 to make the new profit $1,265 for the season.  My return on investment is now 30.1%.  I am going to stick with what has been winning, namely 10-point teaser parlays.  I will use that 10-point change to turn favorites into underdogs and force favorites to blow out their opponents to beat me.  I will tease the totals line to give me very opportunistic numbers.

 

Here are my wagers for week five (all wagered to win $100):

 

1.    New York Giants -7 vs. Seattle

 

2.    Philadelphia -260 vs. Washington

 

3.    Indianapolis -3 vs. Houston

 

4.    Indianapolis -170 vs. Houston

 

5.    Arizona Pk vs. Buffalo

      

6.    10-point teaser

       a.    Carolina +½ vs. Kansas City  

       b.    Baltimore +13 vs. Tennessee

       c.    Miami +16½ vs. San Diego

 

7.    10-point teaser

       a.    Kansas City & Carolina Over 28

       b.    Miami & San Diego Over 35

       c.    New York Giants +3 vs. Seattle

 

8.    10-point teaser

       a.    Washington +16 vs. Philadelphia

       b.    Indianapolis +7 vs. Houston

       c.    Detroit +13½ vs. Chicago

 

9.    10-point teaser

       a.    Detroit & Chicago Under 54½ 

       b.    Tampa Bay +13 vs. Denver

       c.    Jacksonville +6 vs. Pittsburgh

 

10.  10-point teaser

       a.    Tampa Bay & Denver Over 37½ 

       b.    Cincinnati & Dallas Over 34

       c.    Arizona +10 vs. Buffalo

 

11.  10-point teaser

       a.    Cincinnati +27 vs. Dallas

       b.    Arizona & Buffalo Over 34½

       c.    Pittsburgh & Jacksonville Over 26

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all nine wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

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