The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 23, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 24-28, 2016

Tiny Profit

After a week in which we won two of our five selected parlays, our profit for the season has fallen to a slim margin, but it is a profit.  For the year, we have invested $4,900 in imaginary dollars, and our return has been $5,152.  The $252 in imaginary profit gives us a return on investment of 5%.

This week, we are going with six parlay selections.  One of these is a five-game parlay, and we have not yet won a five-gamer this year.  We have won multiple four-game parlays this year.

November 22-28, 2016
1. College Parlay at +175
Oregon over Oregon St.
North Texas over UTEP
 
2. College Parlay at +126
Bowling Green over Buffalo
Maryland over Rutgers
Penn St. over Michigan St.
Miami (Fla.) over Duke
Alabama over Auburn
 
3. College Parlay at +173
Arkansas over Missouri
North Carolina over NC St.
Arizona St. over Arizona
 
4. College Parlay at +183
Louisiana Tech over Southern Miss.
Wisconsin over Minnesota
Colorado over Utah
South Florida over Central Florida
UTSA over Charlotte
 
5. NFL Parlay at +189
Detroit over Minnesota
Tennessee over Chicago
 
6. NFL Parlay at +140
Buffalo over Jacksonville
New Orleans over Los Angeles
N.Y. Giants over Cleveland

November 22, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 12: November 24-28, 2016

The Best Thanksgiving Day Football Season Ever

The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys have been Thanksgiving Day fixtures in the NFL annual scheduling, and there have been some mighty exciting turkey day games as well as some outright turkeys.

In all the years of Thanksgiving Day football, one year stands out as the best ever.  It was November 25, 1971, and on that day, the four NFL teams involved were all in tight races for playoff spots.

Detroit hosted Kansas City in the early game.  The Lions were 6-3-1, chasing Minnesota but ahead of Washington for the lone NFC Wildcard spot.  Kansas City was a game behind Oakland but the leader in the Wildcard race of the AFC.  The Lions won that day to move to 7-3-1, dropping the Chiefs to 7-3-1.  KC would win out to beat out Oakland, while Detroit would drop its final three to finish 7-6-1 and out of the playoffs.

In the afternoon game, Dallas hosted the Los Angeles Rams.  The 7-3 Cowboys had won three in a row once Coach Tom Landry inserted Roger Staubach as full-time starter.  The Rams were trying to keep pace with the division leading San Francisco 49ers, and the winner of this game would be in great shape to make the playoffs.  Dallas emerged victorious to run its winning streak to four and would keep winning every week until they had their first Super Bowl title.  The Rams would miss out on the playoffs by one game.

We have yet to provide the icing on the cake for why 11/25/71 was the best ever Thanksgiving Day for football fans.  It was the college game that made this date so special.  Undefeated and #1 Nebraska played undefeated and #2 Oklahoma with the winner almost assured of facing the winner of #3 Alabama and #4 Auburn in the Orange Bowl.  It has been called the greatest college football game ever, and you can find most or all of it online with a Youtube search.

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.3 108.0 110.1 109.1 67 42
Buffalo 103.6 103.7 104.1 103.8 64 40
Miami 98.7 99.0 98.9 98.8 60 39
N. Y. Jets 97.9 96.8 98.3 97.7 58 40
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 102.9 102.8 103.4 103.0 62 41
Cincinnati 100.6 100.3 100.8 100.6 60 41
Baltimore 99.0 100.1 98.7 99.3 61 38
Cleveland 87.9 88.8 87.6 88.1 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 98.3 99.5 98.0 98.6 62 37
Houston 98.0 98.7 97.5 98.1 61 37
Tennessee 97.5 98.8 97.1 97.8 61 37
Jacksonville 93.0 94.5 92.4 93.3 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.8 104.5 105.5 105.2 63 42
Kansas City 103.2 103.1 103.6 103.3 63 40
Oakland 100.4 101.0 101.1 100.8 66 35
San Diego 99.8 100.6 99.6 100.0 65 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.1 103.4 104.7 104.1 63 41
Philadelphia 103.3 101.7 103.1 102.7 63 40
Washington 101.9 101.6 102.0 101.8 63 39
N.Y. Giants 99.2 98.8 99.3 99.1 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.8 102.0 102.7 102.5 60 43
Detroit 99.1 98.9 98.9 99.0 61 38
Green Bay 97.5 97.6 97.1 97.4 62 35
Chicago 93.3 92.1 93.0 92.8 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.7 104.7 103.7 104.0 69 35
Carolina 102.9 102.9 102.9 102.9 62 41
New Orleans 100.4 101.4 100.5 100.8 67 34
Tampa Bay 98.6 99.1 98.4 98.7 62 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 108.1 105.6 108.8 107.5 64 44
Arizona 103.7 102.3 103.7 103.2 64 39
Los Angeles 98.2 98.9 98.0 98.4 56 42
San Francisco 89.8 90.9 89.3 90.0 54 36

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Detroit Minnesota -0.7 -0.1 -0.8 42
Dallas Washington 5.2 4.8 5.7 48
Indianapolis Pittsburgh -1.6 -0.3 -2.4 48
Atlanta Arizona 3.5 5.9 3.5 51
Baltimore Cincinnati 0.9 2.3 0.4 44
Buffalo Jacksonville 13.6 12.2 14.7 49
Chicago Tennessee -1.2 -3.7 -1.1 45
Cleveland New York Giants -8.8 -7.5 -9.2 49
Houston San Diego 1.2 1.1 0.9 56
Miami San Francisco 12.4 11.6 13.1 41
New Orleans Los Angeles 5.2 5.5 5.5 48
Tampa Bay Seattle -6.0 -3.0 -6.9 47
Denver Kansas City 5.6 4.4 4.9 46
Oakland Carolina 0.5 1.1 1.2 54
New York Jets New England -8.9 -8.7 -9.3 45
Philadelphia Green Bay 8.8 7.1 9.0 52

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Baltimore
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Indianapolis
4 Baltimore
5 Denver
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 Washington
6 N.Y. Giants

 

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Baltimore over Denver
New York Giants over Detroit
Washington over Atlanta
 
Divisional Round
New England over Kansas City
Oakland over Baltimore
Dallas over New York Giants
Seattle over Washington
 
Conference Championship
Oakland over New England
Seattle over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
Seattle over Oakland

 

 

 

November 17, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 17-21, 2016

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:00 am

Abbreviated Post today due to time concerns.

Here are our 5 parlay picks for this week

 

November 15-21, 2016
1. College Parlay at +120
Memphis over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh over Duke
South Florida over SMU
 
2. College Parlay at +318
Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
Central Florida over Tulsa
 
3. College Parlay at +163
Ole Miss over Vanderbilt
USC over UCLA
Nebraska over Maryland
LSU over Florida
Utah over Oregon
 
4. NFL Parlay at +132
Indianapolis over Tennessee
Detroit over Jacksonville
 
5. NFL Parlay at +139
Kansas City over Tampa Bay
Seattle over Philadelphia
N.Y. Giants over Chicago

 

November 8, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 10: November 10-14, 2016

Beginning today, we start posting playoff projections.  Our playoff projections look ahead to remaining schedules and use a combination of Pirate Ratings and home field advantage to estimate the remaining won-loss records of all the teams.  Even though the last place teams do not figure to make the playoffs, we have to project their records as well in order to break ties.

In the AFC, we are projecting that it will take a minimum record of 10-6 to earn a wildcard spot.  It is a tiny bit easier in the NFC as of this week, as we project a 9-6-1 record will qualify for the playoffs.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 110.7 109.2 111.8 110.6 67 44
Buffalo 103.2 103.3 103.7 103.4 63 40
N. Y. Jets 98.4 97.0 99.0 98.1 58 40
Miami 97.0 97.4 97.0 97.1 59 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 102.8 102.7 103.5 103.0 62 41
Cincinnati 102.0 101.7 102.2 102.0 61 41
Baltimore 98.5 99.9 98.1 98.8 61 38
Cleveland 88.9 89.6 88.6 89.0 56 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.1 99.0 97.9 98.3 61 37
Indianapolis 97.6 98.8 97.2 97.9 62 36
Tennessee 96.0 97.5 95.6 96.4 58 38
Jacksonville 92.9 94.5 92.2 93.2 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.6 104.2 105.3 105.0 63 42
Kansas City 103.9 103.9 104.3 104.0 64 40
San Diego 100.5 101.2 100.4 100.7 65 36
Oakland 100.1 100.5 100.5 100.4 65 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 102.8 102.0 103.3 102.7 62 41
Philadelphia 103.2 101.5 102.7 102.5 63 40
Washington 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 62 38
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.0 99.6 99.3 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 103.1 102.3 103.0 102.8 59 44
Green Bay 101.0 100.9 100.7 100.9 62 39
Detroit 99.0 98.7 98.9 98.9 61 38
Chicago 95.4 94.0 95.1 94.9 56 39
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.8 104.9 104.1 104.2 69 35
Carolina 103.5 103.3 103.6 103.5 62 42
New Orleans 100.2 101.4 100.3 100.6 67 34
Tampa Bay 95.3 96.0 94.9 95.4 59 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.5 104.1 107.1 105.9 62 44
Arizona 105.1 103.4 105.4 104.6 66 39
Los Angeles 98.4 99.4 98.1 98.7 57 42
San Francisco 88.9 90.3 88.0 89.1 53 36

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Baltimore Cleveland 12.1 12.8 12.0 48
Carolina Kansas City 2.6 2.4 2.3 45
Jacksonville Houston -2.7 -2.0 -3.2 49
New Orleans Denver -2.4 0.2 -2.0 54
New York Jets Los Angeles 3.0 0.6 3.9 35
Philadelphia Atlanta 2.4 -0.4 1.6 48
Tampa Bay Chicago 2.9 5.0 2.8 42
Tennessee Green Bay -2.0 -0.4 -2.1 45
Washington Minnesota 0.2 0.8 0.3 41
San Diego Miami 6.5 6.8 6.4 52
Arizona San Francisco 19.2 16.1 20.4 46
Pittsburgh Dallas 3.0 3.7 3.2 44
New England Seattle 7.2 8.1 7.7 43
New York Giants Cincinnati 0.4 0.3 0.4 47

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Houston
4 Baltimore
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Atlanta
3 Seattle
4 Minnesota
5 New York Giants
6 Washington

 

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs 

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Indianapolis
4 Pittsburgh
5 Denver
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 New York Giants
6 Washington

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Pittsburgh over Denver

Atlanta over Washington

New York Giants over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Oakland over Pittsburgh

New York Giants over Dallas

Seattle over Atlanta

 

Conference Championships

New England over Oakland

New York Giants over Seattle

 

SUPER BOWL

New York Giants over New England

October 11, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 5: October 13-17, 2016

Great Rivalry Week

Did the NFL purposely schedule week 6 of the NFL season in such a way as to create multiple long-time rivalry games?  If this was pure coincidence, it sure has created a reason to tune in this week.

Let’s take a look at the schedule and show you why a real NFL fan would want to take in the action this week.

San Diego & Denver: Thursday night’s game will have extra interest due to multiple factors.  First, we send our get-well wishes to Denver Coach Gary Kubiak, as we know that migraines can be a major headache.  Special Teams Coordinator Joe DeCamillis will take on the interim role this week.

This rivalry goes back to the beginning of the old American Football League, as these two teams have always been in the same division and thus have played home and home every year of their existence.  The Chargers were the Western behemoth throughout the first half of the 1960s, while the Broncos strived for mediocrity.  In the 1970s, both teams returned to prominence, with Denver featuring the “Orange Crush” defense and San Diego moving the ball via “Air Coryell.”  The two teams vied for the division championship and wildcard playoff berths.

The rivalry died down for a few years, but it came back in the 1990s with John Elway guiding a hot Broncos’ offense and Junior Seau leading Chargers’ improved defense.  In this century, the two teams have enjoyed moments of success, and their games between 2004 and 2008 were some of the best.

The 2013 season saw the rivals playing for a trip to the AFC Championship, with Peyton Manning outdueling Phillip Rivers.

There are multiple coaching ties between these clubs.  Current Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy was the offensive coordinator of the Broncos before his hiring in San Diego.  Broncos Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips served as DC for the Chargers when San Diego repeatedly had the best defenses in the NFL.  Other assistant coaches in this game have been coaches for both rivals.

Detroit & Los Angeles: You might have to be a bit of a senior citizen to appreciate this rivalry, but there was a time when this game was like the Broncos and Patriots today.  Back in the early 1950s, these two teams dominated the West Division (or what at one time was called the National Division).  Between 1950 and 1957, one of these rivals played in the NFL Championship every year but 1956, when Chicago edged Detroit by a half game.

Both teams had celebrity quarterbacks generating headlines as much as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have done in recent years.

The Rams had The Dutchman, Norm Van Brocklin.  Van Brocklin was the master at throwing the long pass.  Give him an option of a wide open receiver five yards down the field and one in man-to-man coverage 40 yards down the field, and The Dutchman would throw the 40-yard pass 90% of the time.  He led LA to the NFL title in 1950, and he won 70% of his starts with the Rams until he was sent to Philadelphia, where he won the Eagles’ last NFL Championship.  In this period in the early 1950’s, Van Brocklin averaged around nine yards per pass attempt, unheard of today even with Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, or Rodgers.

Detroit had the inimitable Bobby Layne, aka The Blond Bomber.  Layne was a real gunslinger from Texas.  With him at the helm of the Lions’ signal-calling (in those days, the QB actually called his own plays, as it was illegal to signal them in from the sidelines), Detroit usually finished at or near the top in passing and scoring. If you think John Elway or Brett Favre cornered the market in fourth quarter comebacks, Layne invented the tension-filled final stanza of more contests than either modern day legend.  It was often said that Bobby Layne never lost a game as Detroit Lion QB; he just ran out of time before he finished the comeback.

The 1952 season National Conference race ended in a tie between the two teams, and Detroit won the playoff before knocking off Cleveland for the NFL title a week later.

 

Miami & Pittsburgh: This rivalry began in the early 1970s after the Steelers hiked from the NFL to the AFC and became a playoff regular, while Miami was enjoying its most successful years in pro football.  During the incredible 17-0 Super Bowl Champion season of 1972, the Dolphins ran into a pesky Steelers’ team in the AFC Championship Game.   The Steelers actually took the lead in the third quarter, before backup running back Jim Kiick scored a couple of rushing touchdowns to give the Fish a double-digit lead.  Still, Pittsburgh stormed back in the fourth quarter to cut the lead to four.

The following year, when the Dolphins were on the march to a second Super Bowl title in a row, they hosted the Steelers in a December game where a win would secure home field advantage for the playoffs.  After streaking to a quick 27-0 lead, Miami seemed to have this game securely in the win column, but Pittsburgh came back from a 30-3 halftime deficit to cut it to 30-26 with a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter.

The 1976 season saw the Steelers collapse to a 1-4 record at the start of the season, and it appeared that Coach Chuck Noll’s magic had worn off, as the Steel Curtain Defense seemed to be missing some metal.  The final nine games of the season showed the world that this team had more steel power than any modern day defense in NFL history, as the Steelers won their final nine regular season games and surrendered just 28 points in those nine games!

The Steelers finally topped the Dolphins during that streak, and they did it with Terry Bradshaw injured and out of the game.  Pittsburgh held the Dolphins to a field goal in a 14-3 win, in which the Steelers threw less than 10 passes all day.

New York Giants & Baltimore: This is the rivalry that made NFL Football a national pastime.  The Giants had become a dominant team in the 1950s, featuring a veritable who’s who of top talent including quarterback Charlie Conerly, running backs Frank Gifford and Alex Webster, end Kyle Rote, an incredible defensive line featuring Andy Robustelli, Dick Modzelewski, and Rosey Grier, and the middle linebacker that became a legend thanks to an NFL film in Sam Huff.  Having two future legends as assistant coaches (see below) made rooting for the Giants just like rooting for the Yankees in baseball.

The Lions and Rams dominated the West, up through 1957, and then along came Baltimore.  The Colts had been an afterthought entry into the NFL when the Dallas Texans folded after one season in 1952.  The acquisition of an unknown quarterback cut by Pittsburgh as a rookie in 1955 turned out to be an 18-year mistake for the Steelers.  One John Unitas made the Colts the dominant Western team until Lombardi joined the Packers, and then #19 fought Green Bay to a draw from the time Lombardi took over in Title Town.

The event that made the NFL into the big boy league was the 1958 Championship game played between the Giants and the Colts.  It has been tabbed “The Greatest Game Ever Played,” and it has evidence to back it up.  In all of Super Bowl history, no game has ever finished tied after 60 minutes, forcing an overtime.  Very few playoff games of any kind have needed an overtime, and it didn’t look like this one was going to need one, as the Giants held a 17-14 lead late in the fourth quarter, with the Colts pinned back at their own 14 yard line.

New York was one final defensive stand away from salting this game away and winning another championship, but it was not to be.  Unitas showed why he was one of the best ever to play the position.  He guided the Colts on a sustained drive going to his favorite target, receiver Raymond Berry, multiple times until Baltimore was in the Red Zone.    With time for just one more play, Steve Myhra was sent into the game to attempt a 20-yard field goal.  Forget for a moment that today a 20-yard field goal is successful more than 99% of the time.  It was anything but automatic in 1958 for one main reason–there were no kicking specialists in the NFL in those days, because rosters were capped at just 33 players.

Myhra was a two-way position player in 1958, playing guard on offense and linebacker on defense.  He was the kicker because he was the best they had from among the position players.  He had made just 4 of 10 field goal attempts during the season, and he had missed from less than 20; goalposts were at the goal line in those days, so a 20-yard field goal meant the line of scrimmage was the Giants’ 13.  Thus, even a 40% accurate field goal kicker was the choice over trying to score a touchdown on one play from the 13 yard line.  Myhra’s kick wasn’t a beauty, but it sailed over the crossbar to tie the game and send it to overtime.

Other NFL games and even a couple of Championship Games had been televised before, but few fans actually saw those games on the Dumont Television Network.  On this day before a full-house at Yankee Stadium millions watched on national television.  The viewership increased greatly as the Colts made that tying drive, and the game went to overtime, except a good amount of time was lost to the public when the signal was accidentally cut for several minutes.  Everything was swell again once the overtime period started.

New York got the ball first in overtime, but the Giants couldn’t do anything with it and had to quickly punt to the Colts.  Unitas must have thought it was a gift to start this drive at his own 20, and he never gave the New Yorkers a chance to get the ball back, guiding the Colts on an 80-yard, 13-play drive that culminated with Alan Ameche plunging across the goal for the game-winning touchdown.

The extra eight minutes and change made the NFL what it is today.

Green Bay & Dallas: This rivalry built on top of the building block created by the one just mentioned.  When Tom Landry built the Cowboys into “America’s Team” in the last half of the 1960’s, there was still one team Dallas could not defeat.  Vince Lombardi’s Packers were the best team ever over the course of eight years, winning the NFL title five times.  What made this rivalry even more intense was that Landry and Lombardi were the two coordinators on that Giants team that lost to Baltimore in 1958 (Lombardi-offense & Landry-defense).  The NFL Championship Games of 1966 and 1967 helped move the NFL past Major League Baseball in followers, especially since the New York Yankees went on the decline in 1965, and the Los Angeles Dodgers would follow suit two years later.

Even after Lombardi retired for a year in 1968, and the Packers became old and injured almost overnight, Landry’s arguably best Cowboys’ team could not beat Green Bay.  The rivalry is as strong as ever, and expect a hard-fought contest Sunday.

Oakland & Kansas City: The Colts and Giants made football what it is today, and the Packers and Cowboys built it even higher, but this rivalry belongs in a class by itself.  If you think the Yankees and Red Sox, Dodgers and Giants, Alabama and Auburn, Army and Navy, or North Carolina and Duke basketball rivalries are something, they pale in comparison to what this rivalry once was.  This was war in a pasture for many years, and it became a rivalry that made bitter enemies of the players, the coaches, the fans, the owners, and even the residents of the two cities.  It was Israel and Iran on the gridiron.

The Chiefs began as the second team to call itself the Dallas Texans when the AFL began in 1960.  Owner Lamar Hunt came from great wealth, as the Hunt family owned great oil interests among many other diversified investments.  Owning an NFL team was something of an adult toy for Hunt.

Hunt did not like his team being considered second-rate to the expansion Cowboys, who played in the same Cotton Bowl Stadium and seldom competed in their games, while the AFL team won the 1962 Championship.  Hunt decided he could much easier share a venue with the inept Kansas City Athletics of the American League, so he uprooted the AFL Champs to Kansas City Municipal Stadium in 1963.  With an eccentric head coach in Hank Stram, the Chiefs fit right in with the eccentric owner of the baseball team.

Oakland was never supposed to have a pro football team.  The spot had been awarded to Minneapolis, but the NFL powers that be stole the city for the senior league.  Another wealthy baron, one Barron Hilton, owned the Los Angeles Chargers and used his influence to force the fledgling league to locate a second team in the Golden State.  Oakland was chosen, even though there was no move to bring a team there.  There was no adequate place to play their games there, and most of the inhabitants of the east side of the Bay were San Francisco 49ers fans.

Ownership changed hands in the early days about as often as the Cleveland Browns change quarterbacks today.  None of  the owners had the wealth of a Hunt or Hilton, and the Raiders had to cut corners just to survive.  Finding a place to play was a burden, as they changed locales almost as often as the Browns change quarterbacks.  They played in a makeshift stadium built for less than half a million dollars with a seating capacity of just over 20,000.

Things started to change for the Raiders in the mid-1960s.  Al Davis, a former assistant coach of the Chargers, became head coach, part-owner, and after a stint as AFL Commissioner, the managing partner of the team.  Davis brought in better talent, and the Raiders moved into the new Oakland-Alameda Stadium in 1966.

Under new coach John Rauch, the Raiders gave the Chiefs a run for their money in 1966, finishing second in the West Division, but splitting the two games.  Kansas City won the AFL title and fizzled in the first Super Bowl.

The following year, Oakland picked up the Mad Bomber from Buffalo.  Daryle Lamonica guided the Raiders to the best mark in the history of the AFL, going 13-1 and sweeping the Chiefs, including an embarrassing 20+ point blowout on Thanksgiving Day in Kansas City.  The four games of 1966 and 1967 were hard-fought with several dirty blows emanating from both teams.  15-yard penalties were a dime a dozen, as were injuries and bloodshed.

1968 made this rivalry even fiercer.  First, the nation as a whole suffered through a year of violence, with two major assassinations, rioting in many major cities, a Presidential Election that experienced severe violence at one of its conventions, and the burning of Detroit following the assassination of Martin Luther King.

So, when that eccentric, cheapskate owner of the Athletics moved his baseball franchise, he chose Oakland.  That didn’t sit well with Kansas City sports fans.  The city of Oakland was no different than Hanoi to the residents of Middle America.

The Chiefs and Raiders met three times in 1968, and they would do so again in 1969.  In the first contest, Stram was strapped for talent.  None of his receivers were healthy enough to play, and there was no time to sign any free agents or acquire any in a trade.  Stram had three very fine running backs, so he had an idea.  Why not use the old-fashioned, moth-balled Power-T formation from the 1940s?  He could place his three backs in the backfield at the same time and go with his two healthy tight ends.

Can you imagine an NFL team using the wishbone offense today?  The Chiefs did the equivalent that day in October of 1968, and against the defending AFL Champion Raiders, it made the game a laugher.  No, it wasn’t what you might think.  Kansas City QB Len Dawson attempted three passes all day, two of them to backs, and one to a tight end.  He completed two, as one intended for a back was off target.  How bad did the Raiders blow the Chiefs out that day?  They didn’t, because with all the faking of multiple backs, two of whom could create their own holes and one with close to sprinters’ speed, Kansas City ran through the Oakland defense all day long.  Oakland had no answer for the power plays, inside traps, power sweeps, counters, and roll outs.  Kansas City won with ease to move into first place in the West.

Oakland got their revenge a month later, as the Chiefs were back to normal for this game.  The teams continued to win and finished with identical 12-2 records, forcing a playoff for the AFL West Division title.  It was never close.  Lamonica lived up to his moniker, as he completed three long touchdown passes in the first quarter alone.  Oakland led 21-0 after the end of the first quarter.  After Kansas City cut it to 21-6 on a couple of field goals. Lamonica went at it again with a touchdown bombs to Fred Biletnikoff and Warren Wells to put the game out of reach at 35-6, winning 41-6.

In 1969, the Raiders were the class of the league once again, and they were considered the equal of the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns of the other league.  The Jets had proven the year before that the AFL was on par with the NFL, and with Lamonica, Biletnikoff, and a wicked defense featuring Ben Davidson, it was thought that Oakland could punish any NFL team with their hoodlum style of play.

The Chiefs had become one-dimensional by then.  Their once great offense was not what it had been, but they had a terrific defense.  It wasn’t enough for Kansas City to stand toe-to-toe with Oakland that year.  The Raiders won a pre-season game over KC, and then they swept the Chiefs in the regular season in games that resembled pro wrestling as much as it did football.

However, the AFL had decided to add a week of playoffs in its final year, giving it four teams in the playoffs like the NFL.  The second place Chiefs played at East Division Champion New York, while the East runner-up, Houston at 6-6-2, played at Oakland.

Kansas City sent Broadway Joe Namath and the Jets packing by holding New York to a couple of field goals and picking off Namath three times.  In the second game of the day, Oakland dismissed Houston like Michigan recently beat Rutgers.  Lamonica’s six touchdown passes and the Raider defense’s six sacks paced Oakland to a 56-7 win that could have been much worse.  Oakland led 28-0 before the end of the first quarter.

The following week, the Raiders hosted the Chiefs in their fourth meeting of the season.  The winner would face the Purple People Eaters, the Minnesota Vikings, who had just defeated Cleveland for the NFL Championship.

Once again, an incredible Chiefs’ defense held an offensive juggernaut in check for 60 minutes.  Oakland moved the ball in the first quarter and took a 7-0 lead, but that was the end of the Raiders’ offensive success for the remainder of the game.  KC did very little with the ball all day, barely gaining 200 total yards, but the defense caught four Oakland passes and won the game 17-7.  Kansas City, and not Oakland, proved that the previous year was not a fluke, beating Minnesota on yet another fantastic defensive showing.

In 1970, the two rivals were no longer the behemoths of the AFL days.  Still, they fought tooth and nail for the new AFC West title, and their two games were nationally televised.  Oakland won the division by a game over Kansas City, but they stole this division title.  Kansas City would have won the division under today’s rules.  Early in the season, the Chiefs had basically secured a win over the Raiders, and Dawson only had to burn what was left on the clock to end the game.  He picked up the crucial first down that would allow KC to down the ball a couple of times and go home winners.

It was not to be.  When Dawson picked up the first down to apparently ice the game, the brute Davidson came in from behind and delivered a nasty cheap shot late hit, a very late hit.  All the frustrations of the numerous late hits in this game led to half of the Chiefs’ team jumping Davidson in one of the worst free-for-alls in sports history.  By the time the referees intervened (a couple of the refs were actually roughed up too), the call was for offsetting 15-yard penalties.

In 1970, any off-setting penalty, including those more than one second after the play like Davidson’s cheap shot, led to the scrimmage play being nullified.  So, Dawson’s game-clenching first down was erased.  Kansas City failed to convert the first down on the do-over.   The Chiefs had to punt, and Oakland moved the ball just across midfield where the old man, George Blanda, kicked the game-tying field goal from 48 yards out on the final play.

The next season, the NFL changed the rules so that had this play occurred in 1971, Kansas City would have kept their first down and could have run out the clock.  In 1970, it proved to be the difference in which team made the playoffs.

Back to the present: These two still bitter rivals should give the public a great game, but few will get that chance to see this game under today’s TV contract.  It won’t be the equal of any of those Chiefs-Raiders games of the late 1960’s, but it should still be a great one if you can watch it.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 107.4 105.8 107.9 107.0 64 43
Buffalo 104.2 104.4 104.8 104.5 62 43
N. Y. Jets 101.1 99.3 102.1 100.8 60 41
Miami 93.1 94.2 92.5 93.2 56 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 107.0 106.2 108.4 107.2 66 41
Cincinnati 103.2 102.7 103.6 103.2 61 42
Baltimore 97.9 100.0 97.4 98.4 61 37
Cleveland 89.4 90.2 89.0 89.5 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.5 99.6 98.4 98.8 62 37
Indianapolis 96.5 98.2 95.7 96.8 61 36
Tennessee 96.0 97.4 95.8 96.4 57 39
Jacksonville 95.3 97.0 94.6 95.6 59 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 107.6 105.4 107.7 106.9 63 44
Kansas City 101.3 100.9 101.9 101.4 63 38
Oakland 98.8 99.8 98.8 99.1 64 35
San Diego 98.9 100.1 98.3 99.1 64 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 104.1 101.3 103.6 103.0 64 39
Dallas 99.2 99.0 99.5 99.2 59 40
Washington 98.8 99.5 98.8 99.0 61 38
N.Y. Giants 98.1 97.7 97.9 97.9 62 36
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 107.6 106.3 108.1 107.3 62 45
Green Bay 104.3 103.6 104.2 104.0 64 40
Detroit 98.7 98.3 98.4 98.5 61 38
Chicago 93.5 92.0 93.1 92.9 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 102.8 104.6 103.3 103.5 68 36
Carolina 102.3 102.1 102.3 102.2 60 42
New Orleans 97.2 99.5 96.6 97.8 64 34
Tampa Bay 95.2 95.7 94.6 95.2 59 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 107.7 104.4 108.6 106.9 63 44
Arizona 104.9 103.0 105.4 104.4 66 38
Los Angeles 98.8 100.0 98.6 99.2 57 42
San Francisco 92.7 93.5 92.5 92.9 55 38

This Week’s Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
San Diego Denver -5.7 -2.3 -6.4 48
Buffalo San Francisco 15.0 14.4 15.8 38
Chicago Jacksonville 1.2 -2.0 1.5 40
Detroit Los Angeles 2.9 1.3 2.8 40
Green Bay Dallas 8.1 7.6 7.7 44
Houston Indianapolis 5.0 4.4 5.7 52
Miami Pittsburgh -11.4 -9.5 -13.4 45
New England Cincinnati 7.2 6.1 7.3 42
New Orleans Carolina -2.1 0.4 -2.7 48
N. Y. Giants Baltimore 2.2 -0.3 2.5 52
Oakland Kansas City 0.5 1.9 -0.1 54
Seattle Atlanta 7.9 2.8 8.3 50
Tennessee Cleveland 9.6 10.2 9.8 43
Washington Philadelphia -3.3 0.2 -2.8 49
Arizona N. Y. Jets 6.8 6.7 6.3 48

 

 

 

November 13, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL–Week 11, November 14-18, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:28 am

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

100.4

101.8

100.2

Philadelphia Eagles

98.6

99.9

98.9

Washington Redskins

96.7

96.7

96.4

New York Giants

94.7

94.2

93.6

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Detroit Lions

102.5

103.7

102.7

Chicago Bears

102.3

102.0

101.6

Green Bay Packers

100.4

99.6

99.7

Minnesota Vikings

94.5

93.7

93.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

108.0

109.9

109.2

Carolina Panthers

105.7

106.2

106.3

Atlanta Falcons

95.4

94.4

94.2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

95.1

94.4

95.1

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

108.8

109.2

109.2

Seattle Seahawks

107.3

107.3

107.3

St. Louis Rams

99.1

99.9

99.7

Arizona Cardinals

97.8

99.1

98.2

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

106.8

104.6

107.0

Miami Dolphins

98.5

97.8

98.2

Buffalo Bills

95.7

95.0

95.3

New York Jets

95.2

93.4

95.5

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

105.2

104.8

105.2

Baltimore Ravens

102.3

101.8

102.2

Cleveland Browns

98.1

98.6

98.1

Pittsburgh Steelers

97.1

96.2

97.0

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

102.9

102.9

102.9

Houston Texans

98.3

98.2

98.7

Tennessee Titans

97.9

97.9

97.9

Jacksonville Jaguars

87.7

87.1

87.5

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.6

111.2

111.1

Kansas City Chiefs

103.4

105.1

103.9

San Diego Chargers

100.5

101.2

100.9

Oakland Raiders

92.5

92.2

92.5

 

 

This Week’s Games

   

 

 

 

Week Number:

11

 

 

 

Date of Games:

November 14-18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tennessee Indianapolis

-2.5

-2.5

-2.5

Buffalo N Y Jets

2.5

3.6

1.8

Chicago Baltimore

3.0

3.2

2.4

Cincinnati Cleveland

9.1

8.2

9.1

Tampa Bay Atlanta

2.2

2.5

3.4

Jacksonville Arizona

-6.6

-8.5

-7.2

Houston Oakland

8.8

9.0

9.2

Miami San Diego

1.5

0.1

0.8

Philadelphia Washington

4.4

5.7

5.0

Pittsburgh Detroit

-2.4

-4.5

-2.7

Denver Kansas City

10.2

9.1

10.2

Seattle Minnesota

16.3

17.1

17.0

New Orleans San Francisco

2.7

4.2

3.5

N Y Giants Green Bay

-2.7

-2.4

-3.1

Carolina New England

1.9

4.6

2.3

   

 

 

 

Byes: Dallas, St. Louis  

 

 

 

 

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. New York Jets

 

NFC

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Detroit

4. Philadelphia

5. Carolina

6. San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

Detroit over San Francisco

Carolina over Philadelphia

 

Divisional Round

Denver over New York Jets

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over Carolina

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

Seattle over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Seattle

November 5, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL Football–November 7-11, 2013

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

102.7

104.5

103.2

Washington Redskins

97.1

97.4

97.0

Philadelphia Eagles

96.2

97.3

96.0

New York Giants

94.8

94.4

93.8

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Chicago Bears

103.0

102.4

102.4

Green Bay Packers

102.8

102.2

102.6

Detroit Lions

101.8

103.3

101.9

Minnesota Vikings

94.1

93.0

93.2

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

105.7

107.2

106.2

Carolina Panthers

104.8

104.9

105.1

Atlanta Falcons

97.2

96.3

96.4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

94.4

93.4

93.9

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

109.7

110.5

110.4

Seattle Seahawks

105.5

105.4

105.1

Arizona Cardinals

97.7

99.2

97.9

St. Louis Rams

96.6

97.1

96.7

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

106.8

104.6

107.0

Miami Dolphins

99.2

98.8

99.4

Buffalo Bills

96.4

96.0

96.7

New York Jets

95.2

93.4

95.5

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

105.8

105.7

106.3

Baltimore Ravens

101.7

100.9

101.1

Cleveland Browns

98.1

98.6

98.1

Pittsburgh Steelers

96.4

95.2

95.6

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

105.4

105.7

105.9

Tennessee Titans

100.4

100.8

100.9

Houston Texans

98.4

98.1

99.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

85.2

84.2

84.5

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.5

111.0

110.8

Kansas City Chiefs

103.4

105.1

103.9

San Diego Chargers

100.6

101.4

101.2

Oakland Raiders

92.4

92.0

92.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Minnesota Washington

0.0

-1.4

-0.8

Arizona Houston

2.3

4.1

1.9

Atlanta Seattle

-4.8

-5.6

-5.2

Baltimore Cincinnati

-1.1

-1.8

-2.2

Chicago Detroit

3.7

1.6

3.0

Green Bay Philadelphia

9.7

8.0

9.7

Indianapolis St. Louis

11.8

11.6

12.2

N Y Giants Oakland

6.4

6.4

5.5

New Orleans Dallas

6.0

5.7

6.0

Pittsburgh Buffalo

3.0

2.2

1.9

San Diego Denver

-6.9

-6.6

-6.6

San Francisco Carolina

8.4

9.1

8.8

Tennessee Jacksonville

18.2

19.6

19.4

Tampa Bay Miami

-2.8

-3.4

-3.5

   

 

 

 

Byes: Cleveland, Kansas City, New England, N Y Jets

 

 

 

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. New York Jets

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Detroit

4. Dallas

5. San Francisco

6. Carolina

 

Wildcard Round

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

Carolina over Detroit

San Francisco over Dallas

 

Divisional Round

Denver over New York Jets

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over Carolina

San Francisco over Dallas

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

San Francisco over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

San Francisco over Kansas City

August 30, 2013

2013 NFC North Division Preview

2013 N F C North Preview

The Old Black and Blue Division, it isn’t.  What once was a quartet known for punishing power running to set up play-action and long passes on offense going up against punishing defenders like Alan Page, Dick Butkus, Ray Nitschke, and Alex Karras, has become the air it out division.  Well, at least three of the teams in the division believe in pass first, pass second, pass, pass, pass.  When you have Adrian Peterson in your backfield, you run the ball about half the time.

 

Last year, the Detroit Lions scored 372 points; that was the worst offensive production in the division.  The Lions won only four games scoring 372 or 23.3 points per game.  In 1991, the year the Lions advanced to the NFC Championship Game, they only scored 339 points.  They averaged more than two points less per game when they last won the NFL Championship in 1958.

 

A return to the old plodding northern football of yesteryear is not on the horizon.  Expect the North to produce a lot of offense and average defense.  One team is liable to score more than 425 points, and that team should win the division.  However, it would not surprise us if all four teams were still alive in the division race after Thanksgiving.  This could be a season where after 12 games, there is one 7-5 team, two 6-6 teams, and one 5-7 team.

 

Green Bay is the obvious choice to repeat as division titlist.  The Packers have topped 400 points scored five out of the last six years, and they have made the playoffs in four of those five seasons.  The Packers have filled a cavity in recent years by drafting Eddie Lacy from Alabama.  Lacy should carry the ball about 15 times a game this year, and we expect him to take some of the heat off the passing game.  Look for Lacy to threaten the 1,000 yard mark, but if he averages four yards per attempt, he will do his job.

 

Aaron Rodgers is the best passer in the game in 2013.  As long as he stays healthy, the Packers will move the ball and score points on any defense.  He has one less familiar receiver in the lineup, as the team let Greg Jennings go, but this could be an addition by subtraction this season.  Wideouts Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson and tight end Jermichael Finley make up the top receiving corps in the NFC (not too far behind the group in Denver).  Add a very talented offensive line, and it is hard to see any team, and only inclement weather, holding a healthy Packers’ team under 21 points in a game.

 

Chicago and Minnesota both finished one game behind the Packers last year, with the Vikings earning a wildcard berth.  Both teams have a lot of talent on hand, but we see some liabilities in both that we believe will keep them behind Green Bay.

 

Chicago is talented enough at the skill positions to win 12 or 13 games, but the Bears’ offensive line has been more like a 12-game loser.  This year, the blocking corps figures to take a decided leap forward thanks to some help in the draft class, but we believe the team still needs at least one more new lineman before Jay Cutler can relax in the pocket.  Additionally, new head coach Mark Trestman brings an entirely new offensive philosophy, and we expect some transitioning early in the season, possibly costing the Bears a game or two.  Give Trestman time, and he will turn the Bears into the Raiders of 2002, where he directed the offense.  Trestman won multiple Grey Cups with Montreal in the CFL, much like Bud Grant once did before guiding Minnesota to four Super Bowls.

 

Speaking of the Vikings, if Christian Ponder can advance this year as much as he did last year, the purple and white might challenge for a second consecutive playoff spot.  However, we cannot see Peterson running for anything close to the 2,097 yards he gained last year.  He might pick up just 1,500 this year, and we don’t see that extra 600 yards being picked up by the passing game.  Thus, we believe the Vikings will fall back this season and possibly have to fight to avoid the cellar.

 

Detroit started the year 4-4 and then lost its final eight games last year.  This team is scary on the offensive side, but the defense scares only people rooting for the team.  We expect some improvement on the stop side, and the offense could be even better this year.  Matthew Stafford could easily top 5,000 passing yards this year, as he barely missed that mark last year.  He still has Calvin Johnson, who almost topped 2,000 receiving yards last year.  Now, he has one of the best pass-catching running backs in Reggie Bush.  Bush could top 800 yards on the ground and catch 50 passes for another 400 yards, and if so, the 2013 Lions could be as potent as the 2009 Saints.  Still, it might take 400-430 points just to break even on the won-loss ledger.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC North.

North

Color

Red

Green

Blue

Chicago Bears

Navy

3

30

47

 

Orange

221

72

20

 

White

255

255

255

Detroit Lions

Honolulu Blue

42

110

187

 

Metallic Silver

133

136

139

 

White

255

255

255

Green Bay Packers

Dark Green

44

94

79

 

Gold

255

182

18

 

White

255

255

255

Minnesota Vikings

Purple

75

48

106

 

Gold

255

182

18

 

White

255

255

255

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

106.5

106.5

106.5

11-5-0

433

336

Chicago Bears

104.7

103.2

102.2

10-6-0

375

277

Minnesota Vikings

101.6

102.2

102.6

10-6-0

379

348

Detroit Lions

96.1

95.1

94.3

4-12-0

372

437

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Green Bay Packers

106.1

104.9

105.7

Chicago Bears

101.5

102.1

101.6

Minnesota Vikings

99.5

99.9

98.3

Detroit Lions

98.4

98.9

98.5

 

PiRate Previews

Team

Chicago Bears

               
Head Coach

Mark Trestman

O-Coord.

Aaron Kromer

D-Coord.

Mel Tucker

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Jay Cutler

Running Back

Matt Forte

Fullback

Tony Fiammetta

Wide Receiver

Brandon Marshall

Wide Receiver

Alshon Jeffery

Tight End

Martellus Bennett

Left Tackle

Jermon Bushrod

Left Guard

Matt Slauson

Center

Roberto Garza

Right Guard

Kyle Long

Right Tackle

J’Marcus Webb

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Corey Wootten

Left Tackle

Henry Melton

Nose Tackle

Stephen Paea

Right End

Julius Peppers

Sam LB

James Anderson

Mike LB

D. J. Williams

Will LB

Lance Briggs

Left CB

Tim Jennings

Right CB

Charles Tillman

Strong Safety

Major Wright

Free Safety

Chris Conte

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Robbie Gould

Punter

Adam Podlesh

K-Return

Devin Hester

P-Return

Devin Hester

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

9-7

Division

2nd

 

Team

Detroit Lions

               
Head Coach

Jim Schwartz

O-Coord.

Scott Linehan

D-Coord.

Gunther Cunningham

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford

Running Back

Reggie Bush

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson

Wide Receiver

Nate Burleson

Tight End

Brandon Pettigrew

Tight End

Tony Scheffler

Left Tackle

Riley Reiff

Left Guard

Rob Sims

Center

Dominic Raiola

Right Guard

Dylan Gandy

Right Tackle

Jason Fox

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Jason Jones

Left Tackle

Nick Fairley

Right Tackle

Ndamukong Suh

Right End

Ziggy Ansah

Sam LB

Ashlee Palmer

Mike LB

Stephen Tulloch

Will LB

DeAndre Levy

Left CB

Chris Houston

Right CB

Ronald Bartell

Strong Safety

Glover Quin

Free Safety

Louis Delmas

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

David Akers

Punter

Sam Martin

K-Return

Micheal Spurlock

P-Return

Micheal Spurlock

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

6-10

Division

4th

 

Team

Green Bay Packers

               
Head Coach

Mike McCarthy

O-Coord.

Tom Clements

D-Coord.

Dom Capers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers

Running Back

Alex Green/Eddie Lacy

Fullback

John Kuhn

Wide Receiver

Jordy Nelson

Wide Receiver

Randall Cobb

Tight End

Jermichael Finley

Left Tackle

David Bakhtari

Left Guard

Josh Sitton

Center

Evan Dietrich-Smith

Right Guard

T. J. Lang

Right Tackle

Marshall Newhouse

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Datone Jones

Nose Tackle

Ryan Pickett

Right End

B. J. Raji

Left OLB

Nick Perry

Left ILB

A. J. Hawk

Right ILB

Brad Jones

Right OLB

Clay Matthews

Left CB

Tramon Williams

Right CB

Sam Shields

Strong Safety

M. D. Jennings

Free Safety

Morgan Burnett

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Mason Crosby

Punter

Tim Masthay

K-Return

Randall Cobb

P-Return

Randall Cobb

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

11-5

Division

1st

 

Team

Minnesota Vikings

               
Head Coach

Leslie Frazier

O-Coord.

Bill Musgrave

D-Coord.

Alan Williams

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Christian Ponder

Running Back

Adrian Peterson

Fullback

Jerome Felton

Wide Receiver

Greg Jennings

Wide Receiver

Jerome Simpson

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph

Left Tackle

Matt Kalil

Left Guard

Charlie Johnson

Center

John Sullivan

Right Guard

Brandon Fusco

Right Tackle

Phil Loadholt

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Brian Robison

Nose Tackle

Letroy Guion

Right Tackle

Kevin Williams

Right End

Jared Allen

Sam LB

Chad Greenway

Mike LB

Erin Henderson

Will LB

Marvin Mitchell

Left CB

Josh Robinson

Right CB

Chris Cook

Strong Safety

Jamarca Sanford

Free Safety

Harrison Smith

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Blair Walsh

Punter

Jeff Locke

K-Return

Cordarrelle Patterson

P-Return

Marcus Sherels

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

8-8

Division

3rd

 

January 3, 2012

2011-12 NFL Simulated Football Playoffs–Wildcard Round

The four NFL Wildcard Round Playoff Games were placed in the computer simulator this morning, and the results are posted below.  Each game was simulated 100 times.

 

What you will see below are the following results:

1. How many of the 100 simulations each team won

2. The Average score of the 100 simulations for each team

3. The number or times out of 100 each simulation covered the spread for the teams (with the number of pushes as well)

4. The largest outlier score for each team

 

The PiRate Ratings will not endorse wagering on these games based on this data.  It is experimental, and although the simulator has been accurate in the past in picking winners, it has been about 55% accurate against the spread, which is not worthy of using as an investment tool.  For any tool to be worthwhile in picking games against the spread, it must top 57.4%, which is 5% above the break-even mark.

 

Saturday, July 7, 2012

4:30 PM EST (NBC)—Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0 at Houston Texans 10-6-0

Vegas Line: Houston by 3

Totals: 38

 

100 Simulations

Cincinnati 54  Houston 46

 

Average Simulation Score

Cincinnati 16.8  Houston 14.4  31.2 total points

 

Covered Spread

Cincinnati 71

Houston 24

Push 5

 

Outlier Scores

Cincinnati 34  Houston 10

Houston 24  Cincinnati 6

Saturday, January 7, 2012

 

8:00 PM EST (NBC)–Detroit Lions 10-6-0 at New Orleans Saints 13-3-0

 

 

 

Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 ½

 

Totals: 58

 

 

 

100 Simulations

 

New Orleans 81  Detroit 19

 

 

 

Average Simulation Score

 

New Orleans 32.6  Detroit 23.1  55.7 total points

 

 

 

Covered Spread

 

Detroit 54

 

New Orleans 46

 

 

 

Outlier Scores

 

New Orleans 48  Detroit 17 & New Orleans 45  Detroit 14

 

Detroit 38  New Orleans 27

 

 

 

 

Sunday, January 8, 2012

1:00 PM EST (FOX)—Atlanta Falcons 10-6-0 at New York Giants 9-7-0

 

Vegas Line: New York Giants by 3

Totals: 47 ½

 

100 Simulations

New York Giants 53  Atlanta 47

 

Average Simulation Score

New York Giants 26.7  Atlanta 23.8  50.5 total points

 

Covered Spread

Atlanta 47

New York Giants 46

Push 7

 

Outlier Scores

New York Giants 38  Atlanta 14

Atlanta 35  New York Giants 13

Sunday, July 8, 2012

 

4:30 PM EST (CBS)—Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4-0 at Denver Broncos 8-8-0

 

Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8

 

Totals: 34 ½

 

 

 

100 Simulations

 

Pittsburgh 92  Denver 8

 

 

 

Average Simulation Score

 

Pittsburgh 25.3  Denver 8.7  34.0 total points

 

 

 

Covered Spread

 

Pittsburgh 79

 

Denver 18

 

Push 3

 

 

 

Outlier Scores

 

Pittsburgh 41  Denver 10

 

Denver 16  Pittsburgh 10

 

 

 

Reminder: Check back Friday morning for the results of our simulated NCAA Playoffs—Simper Bowl V. 

 

 

 

Check back Friday afternoon for the results of 100 simulations of the BCS National Championship Game.

 

January 2, 2012

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Wildcard Playoff Round–January 7-8, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:43 am

Two Good, Six Mediocre In Wildcard Round

While there is not a team with a losing record like last year, this year’s Wildcard Round features just two playoff-worthy teams and six mediocre teams.  At least two mediocre teams will advance to the Divisional Playoff Round next week.

 

In the “good ole days,” the top two teams in each league (AFL & NFL) met up in their championship game the week after the conclusion of the regular season, unless there was a tie for one of the two spots.  Then, a special playoff game took place the week after the regular season concluded, and the Championship Game took place the following week.

 

If you look at how that would have played out with this year’s races, let us place the East and South in one division and the North and West in another division.

 

In the AFC, New England would have won their division, while Baltimore and Pittsburgh would face each other in a playoff in Baltimore, with the winner facing New England in Foxboro next week.

 

In the NFC, Green Bay would have been facing New Orleans.  San Francisco and Atlanta would have headed to Miami to face off in the Playoff Bowl (look it up).

 

This would have given the NFL a much truer gauge and made the regular season much more important than it is today.  Rarely could teams rest their key players in the final week(s) and expect to make the playoffs.  The Super Bowl would guarantee only top flight teams as participants.  It would be a pox if somehow Denver or Cincinnati made it to the Super Bowl this year.  What would a Green Bay-Denver Super Bowl be worth?  The Packers would score enough points on their first two drives to win the game.

 

Final Regular Season PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia Eagles

105.5

105.9

105.0

2

8

8

0

396

328

New York Giants

103.3

103.0

103.3

2

9

7

0

394

400

Dallas Cowboys

99.7

99.7

100.8

3

8

8

0

369

347

Washington Redskins

92.8

93.0

93.8

2.5

5

11

0

288

367

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

111.5

111.1

110.0

3.5

15

1

0

560

359

Detroit Lions

104.5

104.9

103.8

3

10

6

0

474

387

Chicago Bears

94.8

95.8

99.3

3.5

8

8

0

353

341

Minnesota Vikings

94.3

94.4

93.2

3

3

13

0

340

449

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

113.4

113.5

106.7

5

13

3

0

547

339

Atlanta Falcons

104.5

104.1

106.8

3.5

10

6

0

402

350

Carolina Panthers

99.3

99.2

99.8

2

6

10

0

406

429

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

88.8

88.4

91.8

3

4

12

0

287

494

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

105.9

105.7

105.7

3.5

13

3

0

380

229

Seattle Seahawks

100.7

100.7

100.6

2

7

9

0

321

315

Arizona Cardinals

97.6

97.2

100.3

3

8

8

0

312

348

St. Louis Rams

90.8

90.4

89.3

2.5

2

14

0

193

407

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

110.5

110.5

108.4

2

13

3

0

513

342

Miami Dolphins

103.0

102.7

101.8

3

6

10

0

329

313

New York Jets

101.8

101.4

98.1

3.5

8

8

0

377

363

Buffalo Bills

93.8

94.0

98.2

4.5

6

10

0

372

434

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.8

106.8

103.1

4.5

12

4

0

325

227

Baltimore Ravens

105.4

105.3

106.6

4

12

4

0

378

266

Cincinnati Bengals

98.4

98.5

101.9

2

9

7

0

344

323

Cleveland Browns

95.4

95.3

95.4

1.5

4

12

0

218

307

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Tennessee Titans

99.7

99.3

98.9

1.5

9

7

0

325

317

Houston Texans

99.2

100.1

100.7

1.5

10

6

0

381

278

Jacksonville Jaguars

96.9

96.7

94.2

3

5

11

0

243

329

Indianapolis Colts

92.5

92.7

91.3

3.5

2

14

0

243

430

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

102.8

103.0

100.9

3.5

8

8

0

406

377

Oakland Raiders

96.8

96.6

97.1

1.5

8

8

0

359

433

Kansas City Chiefs

96.8

96.6

95.3

2

7

9

0

212

338

Denver Broncos

94.1

93.8

97.8

1.5

8

8

0

309

390

 

The Playoff Simulator

We were out bright and early this AM, on our way to our local university computer lab to gain access to the computer simulator with the football simulation program.  However, it was not open today, so we will simulate the Wildcard Playoff games Tuesday, January 3, and report the results in a separate entry Tuesday afternoon.  Sorry for the inconvenience, but I guess college employees deserve a day off too.

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

         
Wildcard Playoff Round:          
Vegas Line as of January 2, 2012 @ 9:00 AM EST        
             
Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

HOUSTON Cincinnati

2.3

3.1

0.3

3   

38 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Detroit

13.9

13.6

7.9

9 1/2

58   

NEW YORK GIANTS Atlanta

0.8

0.9

-1.5

3   

49   

Pittsburgh DENVER

11.2

11.5

3.8

8   

35 1/2

 

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