Today, we wrap up the Group of 5 Conference previews with the American Athletic Conference. The AAC has seen its champion represent the Group of 5 conferences in a New Year’s 6 Bowl Game three times in the five years of the current rules set in place. While this league is the strongest Group of 5 league to start 2019, we selected Army to be our predicted G5 team to make an NY6 Bowl bid this year.
This is a league about to undergo some transition. Connecticut will return to the Big East after in 2020, and there will be an opening for another school to join the AAC. It could be U Mass, Army, or Liberty, but it could also be somebody like Buffalo from the Mid-American Conference or possibly a new FCS school deciding to jump to FBS, like Villanova.
As for this season, the AAC should be a little more competitive than in the recent past. Central Florida has dominated the league for two consecutive years, and the Golden Knights will be an excellent team once again this year. However, teams like Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, and maybe one or two dark horses will make UCF’s path to a “threepeat” quite difficult.
Here is how the American Athletic Conference Media voted in their preseason poll.
| American Athletic Conference Media Poll | |||
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| East Division | |||
| Pos. | Team | 1st Place Votes | Overall Votes |
| 1 | Central Florida | 19 | 169 |
| 2 | Cincinnati | 11 | 157 |
| 3 | South Florida | 0 | 107 |
| 4 | Temple | 0 | 101 |
| 5 | East Carolina | 0 | 66 |
| 6 | Connecticut | 0 | 30 |
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| West Division | |||
| Pos. | Team | 1st Place Votes | Overall Votes |
| 1 | Memphis | 15 | 165 |
| 2 | Houston | 14 | 162 |
| 3 | Tulane | 0 | 108 |
| 4 | SMU | 1 | 87 |
| 5 | Navy | 0 | 70 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 0 | 38 |
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| Championship Game Winner | Overall Votes | ||
| Central Florida | 12 | ||
| Cincinnati | 8 | ||
| Memphis | 6 | ||
| Houston | 4 | ||
Here are our preseason PiRate Ratings.
| Preseason PiRate Ratings–American Athletic | ||||
| East Division | ||||
| Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Central Florida | 107.7 | 107.1 | 108.8 | 107.9 |
| Cincinnati | 106.6 | 105.0 | 106.8 | 106.1 |
| Temple | 101.9 | 101.0 | 103.2 | 102.0 |
| South Florida | 94.4 | 95.9 | 94.9 | 95.1 |
| East Carolina | 85.0 | 87.6 | 84.9 | 85.8 |
| Connecticut | 75.9 | 77.9 | 74.4 | 76.1 |
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| West Division | ||||
| Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Memphis | 104.0 | 103.3 | 105.2 | 104.2 |
| SMU | 98.7 | 98.4 | 98.9 | 98.7 |
| Houston | 95.0 | 96.7 | 97.8 | 96.5 |
| Tulane | 95.4 | 96.6 | 95.5 | 95.8 |
| Tulsa | 91.3 | 91.9 | 92.3 | 91.8 |
| Navy | 86.3 | 89.2 | 85.9 | 87.2 |
| AAC Averages | 95.2 | 95.9 | 95.7 | 95.6 |
Note: These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.
Predicted Won-Loss Records
The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt. Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams. For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.
If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.
What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings. These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%. The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.
| PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss | |||
| East Division | |||
| Pos | Team | Conference | Overall |
| 1 | Cincinnati | 6-2 | 9-4 |
| 2 | Central Florida | 6-2 | 9-3 |
| 3 | Temple | 5-3 | 9-3 |
| 4 | South Florida | 5-3 | 6-6 |
| 5 | East Carolina | 2-6 | 5-7 |
| 6 | Connecticut | 0-8 | 1-11 |
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| West Division | |||
| Pos | Team | Conference | Overall |
| 1 | Memphis | 6-2 | 10-3* |
| 2 | SMU | 5-3 | 8-4 |
| 3 | Houston | 5-3 | 7-5 |
| 4 | Tulane | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| 5 | Navy | 3-5 | 4-8 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 1-7 | 3-9 |
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Memphis Picked To Win AAC Championship Game |
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| Bowl Predictions | |
| Birmingham | SMU |
| Boca Raton | Central Florida |
| Cure | Temple |
| Frisco | Houston |
| Gasparilla | Cincinnati |
| Hawaii | Memphis |
| Military | South Florida |
Also Bowl Eligible
Tulane
Coaches That Could Move To Power 5 Conferences
Luke Fickell, Cincinnati
Josh Heupel, Central Florida
Mike Norvell, Memphis
Willie Fritz, Tulane
Coaches On The Hot Seat
Randy Edsall, Connecticut
Phillip Montgomery, Tulsa
Top Quarterbacks
D’Eriq King, Houston
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
Brady White, Memphis
Top Offense
Central Florida
Memphis
Houston
Top Defense
Temple
Memphis
Cincinnati
Coming Tomorrow: We start previewing Power 5 Conferences with the ACC
The Pi-Rate Ratings 