The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 6: October 10-14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

New England

N. Y. Giants

17.1

17.6

16.1

Tampa Bay

Carolina

-3.1

-0.4

-0.6

Baltimore

Cincinnati

9.9

9.7

10.2

Cleveland

Seattle

-0.5

0.0

0.0

Kansas City

Houston

4.2

4.5

4.2

Jacksonville

New Orleans

-6.0

-2.1

-2.0

Minnesota

Philadelphia

2.1

2.1

2.6

Miami

Washington

-3.1

-4.5

-4.5

LA Rams

San Francisco

7.4

4.0

3.9

Arizona

Atlanta

0.2

0.0

1.2

N. Y. Jets

Dallas

-6.4

-6.2

-7.1

Denver

Tennessee

3.2

3.0

2.9

LA Chargers

Pittsburgh

5.7

5.7

4.4

Green Bay

Detroit

5.9

7.2

6.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

New England

N. Y. Giants

46

Tampa Bay

Carolina

52

Baltimore

Cincinnati

47.5

Cleveland

Seattle

48

Kansas City

Houston

54

Jacksonville

New Orleans

44

Minnesota

Philadelphia

45

Miami

Washington

46.5

LA Rams

San Francisco

53

Arizona

Atlanta

48

N. Y. Jets

Dallas

42

Denver

Tennessee

36.5

LA Chargers

Pittsburgh

43

Green Bay

Detroit

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.0

110.1

109.4

109.5

21.5

5-0

Buffalo

99.5

100.9

100.5

100.3

18

4-1

N. Y. Jets

93.3

94.3

92.9

93.5

21.5

0-4

Miami

86.1

85.9

85.3

85.8

26.5

0-4

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

101.1

100.7

101.7

101.2

23

3-2

Cleveland

99.6

99.9

100.0

99.8

23

2-3

Pittsburgh

97.6

98.0

98.3

97.9

21.5

1-4

Cincinnati

94.3

94.0

94.5

94.3

24.5

0-5

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.9

104.1

103.8

104.0

23

3-2

Tennessee

99.3

99.7

99.5

99.5

16.5

2-3

Indianapolis

98.9

99.8

99.2

99.3

22

3-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.7

99.0

98.6

20

2-3

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

105.1

105.6

105.0

105.2

31

4-1

LA Chargers

100.9

101.2

100.2

100.7

21.5

2-3

Denver

99.6

99.7

99.4

99.6

20

1-4

Oakland

96.8

96.9

97.5

97.1

23.5

3-2

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

106.1

104.1

103.9

104.7

24.5

3-2

Dallas

102.7

103.5

103.0

103.1

20.5

3-2

N.Y. Giants

95.0

95.5

96.3

95.6

24.5

2-3

Washington

91.7

92.9

92.4

92.3

20

0-5

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

105.2

103.2

103.4

104.0

20.5

3-2

Green Bay

103.5

103.6

103.8

103.6

25

4-1

Chicago

105.6

102.2

102.6

103.5

19

3-2

Detroit

100.0

98.9

100.0

99.7

23

2-1-1

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.6

103.3

103.5

104.5

24

4-1

Carolina

101.6

101.5

102.2

101.8

24

3-2

Tampa Bay

96.0

98.6

99.1

97.9

28

2-3

Atlanta

96.5

97.0

96.4

96.6

26

1-4

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.0

105.1

105.3

105.8

29

3-2

San Francisco

102.6

104.1

104.4

103.7

24

4-0

Seattle

103.1

102.9

103.0

103.0

25

4-1

Arizona

93.7

94.0

94.5

94.1

22

1-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Houston

4

Baltimore

5

Indianapolis

6

Buffalo

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Buffalo over Houston

Indianapolis over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

September 30, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 5: October 3-7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Seattle

LA Rams

-1.1

0.8

0.7

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

-1.0

-0.3

-0.9

Oakland (n)

Chicago

-10.6

-7.1

-6.8

Cincinnati

Arizona

5.3

4.7

4.9

Carolina

Jacksonville

6.5

5.7

6.2

N.Y. Giants

Minnesota

-5.1

-2.0

-1.0

Washington

New England

-12.7

-12.3

-11.9

Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets

12.2

8.7

9.9

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

14.2

7.7

7.4

Houston

Atlanta

7.5

6.7

6.8

Tennessee

Buffalo

5.5

4.6

5.1

LA Chargers

Denver

6.6

7.0

6.5

Dallas

Green Bay

5.2

6.0

5.5

Kansas City

Indianapolis

12.5

12.3

12.5

San Francisco

Cleveland

1.5

2.6

2.7

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Seattle

LA Rams

53

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

44.5

Oakland (n)

Chicago

42.5

Cincinnati

Arizona

46.5

Carolina

Jacksonville

42

N.Y. Giants

Minnesota

45.5

Washington

New England

41.5

Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets

47

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

52

Houston

Atlanta

46

Tennessee

Buffalo

36

LA Chargers

Denver

42.5

Dallas

Green Bay

44.5

Kansas City

Indianapolis

54.5

San Francisco

Cleveland

48

 

(n)–Oakland vs. Chicago game played in London

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.1

109.1

108.3

108.5

21.5

4-0

Buffalo

97.9

99.3

98.7

98.6

18.5

3-1

N. Y. Jets

94.7

96.0

94.6

95.1

22.5

0-3

Miami

85.8

85.6

85.0

85.5

26.5

0-4

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Cleveland

101.7

102.0

102.2

102.0

23.5

2-2

Baltimore

101.1

100.7

101.7

101.2

23

2-2

Pittsburgh

97.6

98.0

98.3

97.9

21.5

1-3

Cincinnati

95.4

95.1

95.7

95.4

24.5

0-4

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.6

21.5

2-2

Tennessee

100.4

100.8

100.8

100.7

17.5

2-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.8

99.0

98.6

19

2-2

Indianapolis

97.1

97.9

97.2

97.4

23

2-2

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

106.6

107.2

106.7

106.8

31.5

4-0

LA Chargers

102.5

102.9

102.0

102.4

22

2-2

Denver

98.4

98.4

98.0

98.3

20.5

0-4

Oakland

95.7

95.9

96.5

96.0

23.5

2-2

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

103.9

104.8

104.4

104.4

20

3-1

Philadelphia

105.0

102.7

102.5

103.4

24.5

2-2

N.Y. Giants

96.2

97.0

98.0

97.1

24.5

2-2

Washington

93.0

94.3

93.9

93.7

20

0-4

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Chicago

106.4

102.9

103.3

104.2

19

3-1

Minnesota

104.3

102.0

102.0

102.8

21

2-2

Green Bay

101.8

101.8

101.9

101.8

24.5

3-1

Detroit

99.7

98.6

99.7

99.4

23

2-1-1

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.9

103.3

103.5

104.6

24

3-1

Carolina

101.6

101.4

102.2

101.7

23

2-2

Atlanta

98.3

99.0

98.5

98.6

24.5

1-3

Tampa Bay

95.7

98.6

99.1

97.8

28

2-2

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.1

105.1

105.3

105.8

28.5

3-1

Seattle

103.0

102.9

103.0

103.0

24.5

3-1

San Francisco

100.2

101.7

101.9

101.3

24.5

3-0

Arizona

93.1

93.4

93.8

93.4

22

0-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Cleveland

4

Jacksonville

5

Buffalo

6

LA Chargers

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Seattle

2

New Orleans

3

Chicago

4

Philadelphia

5

LA Rams

6

Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

LA Chargers over Cleveland

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Chicago over Green Bay

LA Rams over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Buffalo

LA Rams over Seattle

Chicago over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Chicago over LA Rams

 

 

Super Bowl 53

Kansas City over Chicago

 

 

 

 

 

September 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 4: September 26-30, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Total

Green Bay

Philadelphia

0.7

3.6

4.1

47

Houston

Carolina

5.5

5.9

4.7

45.5

Baltimore

Cleveland

4.6

3.8

5.0

45

N.Y. Giants

Washington

2.4

1.9

2.9

46.5

Miami

LA Chargers

-13.0

-13.4

-12.8

49.5

Indianapolis

Oakland

6.1

6.9

5.8

45

Detroit

Kansas City

-4.2

-6.3

-4.6

52.5

Buffalo

New England

-8.2

-8.0

-8.0

41

Atlanta

Tennessee

3.9

4.7

4.2

44

LA Rams

Tampa Bay

18.3

13.0

12.9

53.5

Arizona

Seattle

-5.1

-4.4

-3.8

48

Chicago

Minnesota

4.4

2.8

3.0

42

Denver

Jacksonville

4.3

3.6

3.0

38

New Orleans

Dallas

5.9

1.0

1.6

45.5

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

1.5

1.9

1.5

47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

 

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.5 109.6 108.9 109.0 22 3-0
Buffalo 97.8 99.1 98.4 98.4 19 3-0
N. Y. Jets 94.4 95.7 94.3 94.8 22.5 0-3
Miami 86.3 86.2 85.7 86.1 27 0-3
 

 

North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 102.3 101.9 103.1 102.5 22.5 2-1
Cleveland 100.8 101.1 101.1 101.0 22.5 1-2
Cincinnati 97.0 96.8 97.5 97.1 25.5 0-3
Pittsburgh 96.0 96.3 96.5 96.2 22 0-3
 

 

South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 103.4 103.5 103.1 103.4 22 2-1
Tennessee 99.0 99.2 99.2 99.1 18 1-2
Indianapolis 98.1 99.0 98.4 98.5 22.5 2-1
Jacksonville 97.6 98.3 98.5 98.1 18 1-2
 

 

West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.6 107.4 106.9 107.0 31 3-0
LA Chargers 102.3 102.6 101.6 102.1 22.5 1-2
Denver 98.9 98.9 98.5 98.8 20 0-3
Oakland 95.0 95.1 95.6 95.2 22.5 1-2
 

 

N F C

 

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 103.7 104.8 104.4 104.3 20.5 3-0
Philadelphia 104.4 101.8 101.5 102.5 23.5 1-2
Washington 94.7 96.0 95.8 95.5 21.5 0-3
N.Y. Giants 94.6 95.4 96.2 95.4 25 1-2
 

 

North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 106.2 102.5 102.8 103.8 20.5 2-1
Minnesota 104.8 102.7 102.8 103.5 21.5 2-1
Green Bay 102.1 102.4 102.6 102.4 23.5 3-0
Detroit 99.4 98.1 99.2 98.9 21.5 2-0-1
 

 

South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.1 103.3 103.5 104.6 25 2-1
Carolina 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0 23.5 1-2
Atlanta 100.0 100.9 100.4 100.4 26 1-2
Tampa Bay 93.4 96.5 96.9 95.6 27 1-2
 

 

West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.7 106.5 106.8 107.3 26.5 3-0
Seattle 102.1 101.9 101.8 101.9 25 2-1
San Francisco 99.9 101.4 101.6 101.0 24.5 3-0
Arizona 94.0 94.4 95.0 94.5 23 0-2-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis
5 Buffalo
6 Houston

 

NFC Seeding
1 LA Rams
2 Dallas
3 Green Bay
4 New Orleans
5 Minnesota
6 San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Buffalo
Green Bay over San Francisco
New Orleans over Minnesota
 

 

Divisional Round
New England over Houston
Kansas City over Indianapolis
LA Rams over New Orleans
Green Bay over Dallas
 

 

Conference Championship
New England over Kansas City
LA Rams over Green Bay
 

 

Super Bowl 53
New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

September 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 3: September 19-23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Jacksonville

Tennessee

-0.8

-0.5

-0.5

Green Bay

Denver

4.4

4.5

4.9

Philadelphia

Detroit

9.4

7.9

6.5

Kansas City

Baltimore

7.0

8.6

6.9

Buffalo

Cincinnati

3.1

4.8

3.2

Indianapolis

Atlanta

0.4

0.4

0.3

Minnesota

Oakland

11.1

8.9

8.3

New England

N.Y. Jets

15.3

14.9

15.4

Dallas

Miami

19.1

20.1

20.0

Tampa Bay

N.Y. Giants

1.8

4.7

4.5

Arizona

Carolina

-1.1

-0.2

0.0

Seattle

New Orleans

-1.6

2.6

2.5

LA Chargers

Houston

3.1

3.5

3.1

San Francisco

Pittsburgh

7.1

8.7

8.7

Cleveland

LA Rams

-4.7

-1.8

-1.9

Washington

Chicago

-8.0

-1.6

-1.9

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Jacksonville

Tennessee

38

Green Bay

Denver

43.5

Philadelphia

Detroit

44

Kansas City

Baltimore

52.5

Buffalo

Cincinnati

46

Indianapolis

Atlanta

48.5

Minnesota

Oakland

44

New England

N.Y. Jets

44.5

Dallas

Miami

49.5

Tampa Bay

N.Y. Giants

51

Arizona

Carolina

45

Seattle

New Orleans

48

LA Chargers

Houston

44.5

San Francisco

Pittsburgh

46.5

Cleveland

LA Rams

50.5

Washington

Chicago

42

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.0

109.0

108.2

108.4

22

2-0

Buffalo

97.7

99.1

98.3

98.4

19.5

2-0

N. Y. Jets

95.2

96.6

95.3

95.7

22.5

0-2

Miami

86.7

86.7

86.3

86.6

28

0-2

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

102.2

101.6

102.8

102.2

22

2-0

Cleveland

100.9

101.4

101.5

101.3

23.5

1-1

Cincinnati

97.1

96.8

97.6

97.2

26.5

0-2

Pittsburgh

95.9

96.0

96.2

96.0

22

0-2

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.4

102.4

101.9

102.3

22

1-1

Tennessee

100.1

100.4

100.5

100.3

19

1-1

Indianapolis

98.0

98.9

98.3

98.4

22.5

1-1

Jacksonville

96.8

97.4

97.5

97.2

19

0-2

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

106.7

107.7

107.2

107.2

30.5

2-0

LA Chargers

103.0

103.4

102.5

102.9

22.5

1-1

Denver

99.4

99.5

99.2

99.4

20

0-2

Oakland

95.6

95.7

96.3

95.9

22.5

1-1

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

103.3

104.3

103.8

103.8

21.5

2-0

Philadelphia

105.5

102.8

102.5

103.6

23

1-1

Washington

95.2

97.2

97.1

96.5

21.5

0-2

N.Y. Giants

94.2

94.7

95.4

94.8

24.5

0-2

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Chicago

105.7

101.3

101.5

102.8

20.5

1-1

Minnesota

104.2

102.1

102.1

102.8

21.5

1-1

Green Bay

101.3

101.5

101.6

101.5

23.5

2-0

Detroit

98.6

97.4

98.5

98.2

21

1-0-1

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.9

102.8

102.9

104.2

24

1-1

Atlanta

100.1

101.0

100.5

100.5

26

1-1

Carolina

99.5

99.1

99.7

99.4

23

0-2

Tampa Bay

93.5

96.9

97.4

95.9

26.5

1-1

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

108.6

106.2

106.4

107.1

27

2-0

Seattle

102.3

102.4

102.4

102.4

24

2-0

San Francisco

100.0

101.7

101.9

101.2

24.5

2-0

Arizona

95.4

95.9

96.7

96.0

22

0-1-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Baltimore

4

Indianapolis

5

Buffalo

6

Cleveland

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

LA Rams

2

Dallas

3

Green Bay

4

Atlanta

5

Philadelphia

6

Seattle

Wildcard Round

Baltimore over Cleveland

Buffalo over Indianapolis

Green Bay over Seattle

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Baltimore

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Green Bay over Dallas

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

LA Rams over Green Bay

 

 

Super Bowl 53

New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 3, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 1: September 5-9, 2019

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 1

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Total

Chicago

Green Bay

12.1

6.5

6.8

46.5

Minnesota

Atlanta

8.2

4.3

5.1

48

Philadelphia

Washington

14.4

8.8

8.7

42.5

NY Jets

Buffalo

4.2

4.6

4.6

44

Miami

Baltimore

-1.5

-1.0

-2.3

44.5

Tampa Bay

San Francisco

-0.4

1.9

2.7

51.5

Jacksonville

Kansas City

-3.7

-3.9

-3.1

50

Cleveland

Tennessee

4.7

5.1

4.9

42.5

Carolina

LA Rams

-2.7

-0.7

0.4

50

Arizona

Detroit

-0.3

2.0

1.4

43.5

Seattle

Cincinnati

6.2

7.1

5.7

49.5

LA Chargers

Indianapolis

11.7

11.9

11.9

46.5

Dallas

NY Giants

8.9

8.8

6.8

45

New England

Pittsburgh

4.7

5.4

3.5

48

New Orleans

Houston

11.4

6.4

7.2

49

Oakland

Denver

-1.2

-1.6

-0.9

44.5

 

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

103.2

104.2

102.9

103.4

23.5

0-0

N. Y. Jets

97.2

98.9

97.7

97.9

24

0-0

Buffalo

95.5

96.8

95.6

96.0

20

0-0

Miami

94.6

94.5

94.4

94.5

23.5

0-0

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Pittsburgh

101.0

101.3

101.9

101.4

24.5

0-0

Cleveland

100.4

100.9

101.0

100.8

23.5

0-0

Baltimore

99.0

98.5

99.8

99.1

21

0-0

Cincinnati

98.8

98.1

99.2

98.7

25.5

0-0

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.1

102.5

102.0

102.2

22.5

0-0

Tennessee

98.6

98.8

99.1

98.8

19

0-0

Jacksonville

97.4

98.0

98.1

97.8

19.5

0-0

Indianapolis

95.7

96.4

95.5

95.9

23

0-0

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Chargers

104.5

105.3

104.4

104.7

23.5

0-0

Kansas City

104.1

104.9

104.2

104.4

30.5

0-0

Denver

100.2

100.6

100.5

100.4

21

0-0

Oakland

95.9

96.0

96.6

96.2

23.5

0-0

 

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

106.8

103.7

103.6

104.7

22.5

0-0

Dallas

101.7

102.4

101.5

101.9

20.5

0-0

N.Y. Giants

95.9

96.5

97.7

96.7

24.5

0-0

Washington

94.9

97.4

97.4

96.6

20

0-0

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Chicago

107.6

102.7

102.9

104.4

22

0-0

Minnesota

104.4

101.8

101.9

102.7

22

0-0

Green Bay

98.0

98.7

98.6

98.4

24.5

0-0

Detroit

98.1

96.5

97.7

97.5

21.5

0-0

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

111.0

106.4

106.7

108.0

26.5

0-0

Carolina

100.8

100.4

101.4

100.9

23.5

0-0

Atlanta

99.2

100.5

99.9

99.8

26

0-0

Tampa Bay

92.8

96.7

97.3

95.6

27

0-0

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.0

104.6

104.4

105.3

26.5

0-0

Seattle

102.0

102.2

101.9

102.0

24

0-0

San Francisco

96.7

98.3

98.1

97.7

24.5

0-0

Arizona

94.9

95.4

96.1

95.5

22

0-0

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

LA Chargers

3

Pittsburgh

4

Houston

5

Cleveland

6

Kansas City

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

New Orleans

2

Chicago

3

LA Rams

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh over Kansas City

Cleveland over Houston

LA Rams over Minnesota

Seattle over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over Cleveland

LA Chargers over Pittsburgh

New Orleans over Seattle

LA Rams over Chicago

Conference Championship

New England over LA Chargers

New Orleans over LA Rams

Super Bowl 53

New Orleans over New England

 

 

 

 

 

January 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Divisional Playoff Round: January 12-13, 2019

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Ratings and Information

 

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: 4:35 PM Eastern Standard

TV: NBC

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Kansas City by 6.4 

Mean: Kansas City by 7.2

Bias: Kansas City by 5.7

Total: 55

Expected Score: Kansas City 31  Indianapolis 24

———————————————————————————-

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

Time: 8:15 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox 

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate:  Los Angeles by 8.5

Mean: Los Angeles by 8.8

Bias: Los Angeles by 8.8

Total: 49.5

Expected Score: Los Angeles 30  Dallas 21

—————————————————————————-

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Time: 1:05 PM Eastern Standard

TV: CBS

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 3.5

Mean: New England by 2.8

Bias: New England by 2.7

Total: 45.5

Expected Score: New England 24  Los Angeles 21

———————————————————————————-

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Time: 4:40 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New Orleans by 12.8 

Mean: New Orleans by 12.5

Bias: New Orleans by 12.4

Total: 49

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Philadelphia 17

January 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings Selections for The College Football National Championship Game & The NFL Wildcard Playoff Round

Final Land Sharp Selections

The Land Sharps are limping home to the finish, as the Bowl season did not go so well for our five friends.  Let’s give them all some props for faring so well during the regular season.  It isn’t easy to stay above the magic 52.4% success rate that a sports investor needs to return a profit, and all five did so throughout the regular season.

Now, here’s something else you should know.  If you are a regular reader here, you may recall just after the bowls and playoffs were announced, that we told you about our experiment in playing the Money Line on every bowl game and by investing the identical amount on the underdog to win outright.  We tested this out last year with a healthy profit.

If last year was a healthy profit, this year was a giant windfall!  Friends, this method drained the imaginary money from the imaginary sports book like it was Jesse and Frank James robbing it.  The return on investment was over 61%, as 16 of the 38 underdogs won outright, returning an average of $289 per upset.  If you had the funds and could afford to put down $10,000 on the Underdog on the 39 games (which became 38 after the postponement of the former Heart of Dallas Bowl), these money line wagers would have returned just under a quarter million dollars.  WOW!

Now, to make it even better.  Had you only played the 36 bowl games and not the two playoff games, you would have gone 16-20 and your return on investment would have been 76.5%!  Where else can you get a 76.5% return on your investment in 17 days?

Here are the final Land Sharp Picks for the National Championship Game.  Our Land Sharps made these selections earlier in the week when the going odds were:

Alabama – 5.5

Clemson +7

Over 59.5

Under 60 

 

Three of the Land Sharps selected Clemson and took the points

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, and Stewed Meat

Two of the Land Sharps selected Alabama and gave the points

Buckeye Michelle and Friday Dog 13

 

Four of the Land Sharps took the OVER

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, Buckeye Michelle, and Friday Dog 13

One Land Sharp took the UNDER

Stewed Meat

 

As for the PiRates, we issued our ratings earlier this week, and they showed that Alabama is favored by 1 to 2 points, so if you go by our ratings, the play would be Clemson but without a lot of confidence.  As for the Total, our estimate is basically right on the line, so we would lay off the total unless you tease it.

 

The PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Playoff Teasers

Once playoff season begins, there are fewer and fewer chances to play our successful teasers, but 2018 was a very good one for us, as our NFL Teasers returned a neat little imaginary profit.  We hope you understand that our wagering is only hypothetical, as no real currency ever changes hands, and we highly encourage you not to lose your mortgage payment by relying on our selections.

We have two 13-point teaser selections for this week’s Wildcard Round.  One is a four-team parlay on sides, and one is a four-team parlay on totals.  These parlays both have 12-10 odds.

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indianapolis Houston 12 Houston
Dallas Seattle 15 Seattle
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 16 L.A. Chargers
Chicago Philadelphia 19.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Houston Indianapolis 61.5 UNDER
Dallas Seattle 30 OVER
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 28.5 OVER
Chicago Philadelphia 28 OVER

 

December 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Wildcard Playoff Round: January 5-6, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Houston Indianapolis 2.0 2.7 2.1 49.5
Dallas Seattle -1.6 -1.9 -2.8 44.5
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 2.6 2.4 2.4 43
Chicago Philadelphia 5.5 5.5 6.4 44.5

The Wildcard Playoff Schedule

Saturday,  January 5, 2019

4:35 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: ESPN

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

 

8:15 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox Network

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

 

Sunday, January 6, 2109

1:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

 

4:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

 

For the Divisional Playoff Round

The lower remaining seed in the AFC will play at Kansas City on Saturday, January 12, on NBC at 4:35 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the NFC will play at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, January 12, on Fox Network at 8:15 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the AFC will play at New England on Sunday, January 13, on CBS at 1:05 PM EST

 

The lower remaining seed in the NFC will play at New Orleans on Sunday, January 13, on Fox Network at 4:40 PM EST

Ratings of the Playoff Teams

Playoff Team PiRate Mean Bias Avg. Total W-L
New Orleans 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.3 27 13-3
Kansas City 106.8 107.0 106.6 106.8 30.5 12-4
LA Rams 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5 29 13-3
Chicago 104.9 105.1 105.8 105.3 21.5 12-4
New England 105.0 105.1 104.9 105.0 22.5 11-5
Seattle 104.6 104.7 105.2 104.8 24 10-6
LA Chargers 104.3 105.0 104.8 104.7 23 12-4
Baltimore 104.5 104.9 104.7 104.7 20 10-6
Indianapolis 102.9 102.3 103.3 102.8 25.5 10-6
Houston 102.4 102.5 103.0 102.6 24 11-5
Philadelphia 102.4 102.6 102.5 102.5 23 9-7
Dallas 100.5 100.3 99.9 100.2 20.5 10-6

 

Note: The College Basketball Bracket Gurus will debut next week.  Most of the gurus are enjoying vacations this week and did not submit their data to us.

December 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 22-28 Bowls and NFL Week 16

The Land Sharps’ results from last week cannot be published yet, because all five have action on games being played today.

We will note that to date, the favorite has won every bowl game, something that is totally opposite of last year’s bowl season.  Not that it will continue, but if you are a money line player, you should maybe see this as a trend that maybe this year the Line originators in Nevada did a better job than last year, when over half of the games were won outright by the underdog.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp Picks for bowl games beginning, Saturday, December 22 through Friday, December 28.

 

1.) Cal Gal Tiffany

Hawaii  Pk vs.  Louisiana Tech
Washington St. -3 vs.  Iowa State
Georgia Tech  -5 vs.  Minnesota

 

2.) Stewed Meat

Troy +2 vs. Buffalo
Boise State  -2 vs. Boston College
Army -5 vs.  Houston

 

3.) Buckeye Michelle

California -1 vs. TCU
Houston +5 vs. Army
Miami (Fla.)  -3 vs.  Wisconsin

 

4.) Dean615

TCU +1 vs California
Miami (Fla.)  -3 vs.  Wisconsin
Duke +4.5 vs. Temple

 

5.) Friday Dog 13

Duke +4.5 vs. Temple
Vanderbilt -3.5 vs. Baylor
Washington St.  -3 vs. Iowa St.

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

Our teaser plays moderated back to mediocre last week.  Let’s hope it is a bump in the road and not a new trend, because we are sticking with our teaser plays.

10-point teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Washington 13.5 Washington
Tampa Bay Dallas 3 Dallas
N.Y. Giants Indianapolis 1 Indianapolis
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Philadelphia Houston 11.5 Houston
Miami Jacksonville 14 Jacksonville
Green Bay N.Y. Jets 13 N.Y. Jets
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cleveland Cincinnati 20 Cincinnati
Detroit Minnesota 4 Minnesota
New England Buffalo 3.5 New England
Team Team Total Pick
Tennessee Washington 27 OVER
L.A. Chargers Baltimore 33 OVER
Indianapolis N.Y. Giants 36.5 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Miami Jacksonville 48.5 UNDER
N.Y. Jets Green Bay 36.5 OVER
Cincinnati Cleveland 34 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Minnesota Detroit 32 OVER
New England Buffalo 54.5 UNDER
Atlanta Carolina 33.5 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Chicago San Francisco 33 OVER
L.A. Rams Arizona 34 OVER
Pittsburgh New Orleans 63 UNDER
13-point teaser
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 9 L.A. Chargers
Atlanta Carolina 16 Carolina
L.A. Rams Arizona 1.5 L.A. Rams
Kansas City Seattle 16 Seattle

Notice:  The Land Sharps and the PiRate Ratings publish this information for entertainment purposes only.  None of this group actually wagers real money on their picks, and we encourage you not to do so either.

 

 

 

December 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Washington 6.9 7.5 6.8 41.5
L.A. Chargers Baltimore 4.8 5.2 5.4 44.5
Dallas Tampa Bay 7.2 6.8 5.7 44.5
Indianapolis N.Y. Giants 9.0 8.5 9.4 47.5
Philadelphia Houston 3.2 3.4 2.7 46.5
Miami Jacksonville -0.2 0.1 0.3 42
N.Y. Jets Green Bay -2.4 -3.3 -2.7 48
Cleveland Cincinnati 4.8 4.8 5.6 47.5
Detroit Minnesota -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 44.5
New England Buffalo 15.5 15.8 15.6 39.5
Carolina Atlanta 3.5 3.5 4.0 50
San Francisco Chicago -6.7 -6.7 -7.7 45
Arizona L.A. Rams -10.5 -11.4 -10.9 47
New Orleans Pittsburgh 8.0 7.8 8.0 50.5
Seattle Kansas City -0.2 -0.3 0.5 52.5
Oakland Denver -6.2 -6.0 -6.2 41

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.2 105.4 105.2 105.3 22.5 9-5
N. Y. Jets 94.9 94.4 94.5 94.6 24 4-10
Miami 94.6 94.3 94.4 94.4 23.5 7-7
Buffalo 92.7 92.7 92.6 92.6 17 5-9
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.2 107.1 107.1 24 8-5-1
Baltimore 103.3 103.6 103.3 103.4 20.5 8-6
Cleveland 97.5 97.8 98.3 97.9 24 6-7-1
Cincinnati 95.3 95.5 95.1 95.3 23.5 6-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Indianapolis 103.1 102.5 103.5 103.0 25 8-6
Houston 102.3 102.4 102.9 102.5 24 10-4
Tennessee 98.7 98.8 98.6 98.7 19.5 8-6
Jacksonville 96.7 96.2 96.1 96.3 18.5 4-10
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.3 107.5 107.1 107.3 30 11-3
LA Chargers 105.0 105.8 105.7 105.5 24 11-3
Denver 99.8 99.7 99.7 99.7 19.5 6-8
Oakland 91.1 91.2 91.0 91.1 21.5 3-11
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.5 102.7 102.6 102.6 22.5 7-7
Dallas 100.6 100.4 100.0 100.3 19.5 8-6
N.Y. Giants 97.0 97.0 97.2 97.1 22.5 5-9
Washington 94.4 93.8 94.3 94.2 22 7-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 105.0 105.2 105.9 105.4 23 10-4
Minnesota 102.5 102.5 102.3 102.4 21 7-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.7 99.9 24 5-8-1
Detroit 98.8 98.6 98.2 98.5 23.5 5-9
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.5 112.6 112.5 26.5 12-2
Carolina 100.7 100.3 100.6 100.5 24 6-8
Atlanta 99.6 99.4 99.2 99.4 26 5-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.1 96.8 96.3 25 5-9
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.7 105.9 105.5 105.7 28.5 11-3
Seattle 104.1 104.2 104.7 104.3 22.5 8-6
San Francisco 95.4 95.4 95.2 95.3 22 4-10
Arizona 92.7 92.1 92.0 92.3 18.5 3-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

These projections are not to be confused with how the seedings would be if the playoffs started today.  They forecast the final two weeks of games.

AFC Seeding
1 L.A. Chargers
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 Kansas City
6 Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round
Houston over Tennessee
Pittsburgh over Kansas City
Chicago over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
New England over Pittsburgh
New Orleans over Seattle
Chicago over L.A. Rams

 

Conference Championships
L.A. Chargers over New England
New Orleans over Chicago

 

Super Bowl LIII
L.A. Chargers over New Orleans

 

What Would Happen If…

There is a chance that both the Los Angeles Rams and the Los Angeles Chargers could host their conference championship games.  There has always been a chance that the New York Jets and New York Giants could one year host their conference championship games.  In the future, once they occupy the same new colossus mega stadium, the Rams and Chargers could host their conference championship games in the same year.

Conference Championship Games are always on Sundays.  What that means, is there is maybe a 5% chance that the Rams and Chargers could end up hosting on this day.  While it would be okay having both networks in the City of Angels on the same day for separate games, once these teams share a home field (and if the world ever comes to an end and the Jets and Giants host conference championship games), it will not be possible to have doubleheaders on the same field on the same day.

Can you imagine the logistical nightmare it would cause to have the AFC Championship Game at 10 AM Pacific Time, followed by the NFC Championship at 1:30 PM Pacific Time on the same field?  First of all, it would be impossible.  Everybody in the stands would have to be escorted out of the stadium, before ticket holders for the second game could enter.  There would be about 15 to 20 minutes max for this to happen.  Like I said, this is impossible.

Next, the field itself would have to be transformed with new logos, as well as having any field damage repaired.  In the case of a game in East Rutherford, NJ, what if the weather conditions were 35 degrees with rain?  After 60 minutes of action, the next game would inherit very sloppy field conditions.  I did say impossible.

Now, what if the first game ended regulation with the game tied, and this game became a repeat of the 1971 Miami-Kansas City game at the old Municipal Stadium up on the hill in Kansas City.   What if the first game didn’t end until 2:30 PM Pacific Time?  The second game network would have to fill over an hour of time waiting for a game to end, when 99.9% of the football watching public would be tuned to the other game.  Once again, it is impossible.

I haven’t even mentioned that the teams in the second game need time to warm up on the field.  15 to 20 minutes is not enough.  They need at least an hour.  If you have to make a decision a week before to change the start times of the games, the network brass at CBS and Fox get very upset.  They cannot just make impromptu changes to their schedule a week in advance.  Only very important breaking news makes it okay to alter a TV schedule one week in advance.  The networks would say “impossible.”

However impossible it is, there is a chance that it could happen.  So what would happen if it did?  Yes, there is a contingency plan in place to cover this possibility.  If the same stadium is to host both conference championship games, one will be moved to Monday Night.  Yep, there could be a conference championship on Monday Night Football, but it would not be the regular MNF crew or network.  If it was the AFC game, it would be on CBS, and if it was the NFC game, it would be on Fox.

You might ask, has a network other than ABC or ESPN ever televised a Monday Night game?  The answer is “yes.”

It is a misnomer to believe that Monday Night Football on ABC in 1970 was the first time that NFL games were played and televised on Monday night.  Before there was MNF featuring Howard Cosell, CBS televised a handful of NFL games on Monday night during the 1960’s.  The games started at 9:30 PM Eastern Time, but because games concluded in 2 1/2 hours in those days, they were finished at Midnight.  One of the best games in this group was a 1968 game between an unbeaten Dallas team and a Green Bay Packer team coached by Phil Bengston, who was not having a rough time replacing Vince Lombardi, as the Packers were 2-3-1, but still in the race in the weak NFL Central Division.

Dallas led 10-0, and Green Bay looked more like an expansion team in the opening quarter plus.   Then, the great Bart Starr took the aging Packers on his shoulder and guided them back like it was 1966 again.  Starr threw three touchdown passes in the next quarter plus, and Green Bay took a 21-10 lead.  Starr threw another TD pass in the fourth quarter, and the Packers once again owned the Cowboys with a 28-17 win.

The American Football League also played a couple of Monday Night games in the 1960s, televised on NBC.  One notable game involved Broadway Joe Namath and the New York Jets playing host to the Houston Oilers in a game that would put the winner in first place in the AFL East at the midway point of the season.  Namath was victimized with a pick six by Zeke Moore early in the game, and he was somewhat of a disappointment that night with additional interceptions, but he also completed multiple long bomb passes to speedster Don Maynard, and the Jets pulled out the victory thanks to Jim Turner kicking four field goals, a couple from near midfield (goalposts were on the goalline then and not on the end line like today).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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