The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 2, 2014

PiRate Ratings–NFL Wildcard Round Preview

Wildcard Playoff TV Schedule

Day

Time (ET)

Game

TV

Radio

Saturday, January 4

4:35 PM

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

NBC

Westwood 1

Saturday, January 4

8:10 PM

New Orleans @ Philadelphia

NBC

Westwood 1

Sunday, January 5

1:05 PM

San Diego @ Cincinnati

CBS

Westwood 1

Sunday, January 5

4:40 PM

San Francisco @ Green Bay

Fox

Westwood 1

   

To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Indianapolis—Dome Stadium (no weather effect)

Philadelphia—Partly Cloudy / Temperatures remaining steady near 28 degrees and light winds

Cincinnati—90 % chance of rain/snow mix / Temperatures falling through the 30’s with moderate winds

Green Bay—Brutally cold with temperatures falling from about 5 at kickoff to -5 but dry.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Indianapolis Kansas City

2.9

4.6

2.9

Philadelphia New Orleans

-0.2

0.3

-0.6

Cincinnati San Diego

8.1

8.1

8.4

Green Bay San Francisco

-5.1

-6.2

-6.1

 

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Kansas City Wins: 37

Indianapolis Wins: 63

Average Margin: Indianapolis 24.4  Kansas City 22.7

KC Outlier Win: 30-10

Ind Outlier Win: 27-7

 

New Orleans at Philadelphia

New Orleans Wins: 29

Philadelphia Wins: 71

Average Margin: Philadelphia 31.1  New Orleans 23.8

NO Outlier Win: 38-20

Phi Outlier Win: 34-13

 

San Diego at Cincinnati

San Diego Wins: 44

Cincinnati Wins: 56

Average Margin: Cincinnati 25.2  San Diego 24.5

SD Outlier Win: 28-12

Cin Outlier Win: 31-10

(8 simulations had an OT victory—5 for Cin and 3 for SD)

(Lowest Standard Deviation in this round of sims)

 

San Francisco at Green Bay

San Francisco Wins: 62

Green Bay Wins: 38

Average Margin: San Francisco 26.3  Green Bay 22.0

SF Outlier Win: 37-16

GB Outlier Win: 28-17

(GB’s 11-point outlier margin occurred 7 other times)

 

January 1, 2014

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs–Semifinals

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:11 am

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 received automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt received automatic bids if any finished in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaced the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we used an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then selected the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and gave them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seeded the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams received a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 faced off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

In the quarterfinal round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/28/2013-14-ncaa-football-computer-simulation-playoffs-quarterfinals/

 

South Carolina upset Florida St., Stanford defeated Michigan St., Oregon upset Auburn, and Missouri upset Alabama to make this the first time in the PiRate Simulation history that a top-3 seed did not make the semifinal round.

 

Here are your Final Four Match-ups that were simulated yesterday:

 

#4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

#6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

Game 1: #4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

 

Winner: Stanford 17  South Carolina 13

 

Stan

Team

S Car

 

 

 

16

FD

14

 

 

 

41-159

Rushing

43-112

 

 

 

167

Passing

121

 

 

 

15-27-1

Passes

13-23-2

 

 

 

68

Play

66

 

 

 

326

Yards

233

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Stan

0

3

7

7

17

S Car

7

3

0

3

13

 

 

Game 2: #6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

Winner: Oregon 48  Missouri 35

 

Mo

Team

Ore

 

 

 

21

FD

24

 

 

 

42-162

Rushing

52-308

 

 

 

257

Passing

244

 

 

 

19-32-2

Passes

21-32-0

 

 

 

74

Play

82

 

 

 

419

Yards

552

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Mo

14

7

14

0

35

Ore

10

10

14

14

48

 

Simper Bowl VII is now set. 

 

#4 Stanford vs. #10 Oregon

 

The Ducks will be trying to threepeat as Simper Bowl Champions.

 

Here are the results of the first six Simper Bowls

 

Simper Bowl I—January 2008: USC 38  Oklahoma 24

Simper Bowl II—January 2009: USC 27  Florida 23

Simper Bowl III—January 2010: Boise St. 39  TCU 37

Simper Bowl IV—January 2011: Ohio St. 27  Wisconsin 21

Simper Bowl V—January 2012: Oregon 38  Wisconsin 30

Simper Bowl VI—January 2013: Oregon 34  Alabama 24

December 28, 2013

2013-14 NCAA Football Computer Simulation Playoffs–Quarterfinals

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

Today’s quarterfinal games look like this:

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

 

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

We had our first major upset in the tournament, as the Gamecocks came from behind in the fourth quarter thanks to an incredible defensive effort.

 

Final Score: South Carolina 18   Florida St. 16

 

FSU

Team

Scar

 

 

 

18

FD

15

 

 

 

31-84

Rushing

42-161

 

 

 

214

Passing

146

 

 

 

19-37-2

Passes

13-21-0

 

 

 

68

Play

63

 

 

 

298

Yards

307

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

FSU

7

6

3

0

16

Scar

0

3

3

12

18

 

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

In a match of the two teams headed to the Rose Bowl in reality, the Cardinal dominated the game for four quarters to advance to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Stanford 20  Michigan St. 10

 

Stan

Team

MSU

 

 

 

16

FD

12

 

 

 

39-144

Rushing

33-128

 

 

 

191

Passing

152

 

 

 

17-27-0

Passes

16-28-1

 

 

 

66

Play

61

 

 

 

335

Yards

280

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Stan

3

3

7

7

20

MSU

0

0

10

0

10

 

 

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

In a nip and tuck offensive explosion, the Ducks wiped out the other top seed, preventing the actual national championship contenders from advancing to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Oregon 52  Auburn 49

 

Aub

Team

Ore

 

 

 

26

FD

23

 

 

 

55-297

Rushing

43-224

 

 

 

223

Passing

309

 

 

 

19-29-1

Passes

21-34-0

 

 

 

84

Play

77

 

 

 

520

Yards

533

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Aub

14

21

7

7

49

Ore

10

14

21

7

52

 

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

Alabama mounted a huge 2nd half comeback to force overtime, but a missed extra point cost the Tide and the Tigers advanced to the semis.

 

Final Score: Missouri 24 Alabama 23 ot

 

Ala

Team

Mo

 

 

 

 

16

FD

21

 

 

 

 

34-126

Rushing

55-211

 

 

 

 

233

Passing

160

 

 

 

 

19-30-0

Passes

14-22-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

77

 

 

 

 

359

Yards

371

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Ala

0

3

0

14

6

23

MO

0

7

10

0

7

24

 

The Semifinal Round is now set.  Here are your Final Four Match-ups:

 

#4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

#6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

In the years we have simulated these playoffs, this is the lowest total of seeded teams ever to make the semifinals. Check back on New Year’s Eve to see which two teams advance to the 2014 Simper Bowl.

December 20, 2013

PiRate Ratings 2013 College Football Computer Simulation Playoffs

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

The top four seeds receive first round byes, while teams 5-12 play at neutral site bowls.

Here are the results for Round One.  Round Two will be published next Friday.  The Semifinals will be published New Year’s Eve, and the Championship Game will be published Friday, January 3.

# 5 Michigan St. 12-1 vs. #12 Central Florida 11-1

 

Michigan St. 20  Central Florida 10

 

Mich St.

Team

Cent. Fla

 

 

 

17

FD

14

 

 

 

35-138

Rushing

24-87

 

 

 

223

Passing

239

 

 

 

21-38-0

Passes

25-42-3

 

 

 

73

Play

66

 

 

 

361

Yards

326

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Mich St.

3

7

0

10

20

Cent. Fla

0

0

7

3

10

 

 

#6 Missouri 11-2 vs. #11 Oklahoma 10-2

 

Missouri 44 Oklahoma 35

 

Missouri

Team

Oklahoma

 

 

 

22

FD

25

 

 

 

45-188

Rushing

44-218

 

 

 

251

Passing

209

 

 

 

18-31-1

Passes

19-34-1

 

 

 

76

Play

78

 

 

 

439

Yards

427

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Missouri

13

14

7

10

44

Oklahoma

7

14

0

14

35

 

 

#7 Ohio St. 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 10-2

 

Oregon 48  Ohio St. 29

 

Ohio St.

Team

Oregon

 

 

 

21

FD

24

 

 

 

41-179

Rushing

51-275

 

 

 

221

Passing

286

 

 

 

17-28-1

Passes

22-34-0

 

 

 

69

Play

85

 

 

 

400

Yards

561

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Ohio St.

10

6

6

7

29

Oregon

11

20

14

3

48

 

 

#8 South Carolina vs. #9 Baylor

 

South Carolina 34  Baylor 19

 

S Car

Team

Bay

 

 

 

19

FD

22

 

 

 

47-197

Rushing

32-79

 

 

 

127

Passing

241

 

 

 

12-19-0

Passes

23-43-3

 

 

 

66

Play

75

 

 

 

324

Yards

320

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

S Car

10

10

7

7

34

Bay

7

9

0

3

19

 

 

The Elite Eight Schedule

#1 Florida St. 13-0 vs. #8 South Carolina 11-2

#2 Auburn 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 11-2

#3 Alabama 11-1 vs. #6 Missouri 12-2

#4 Stanford 11-2 vs. #5 Michigan St. 13-1

 

September 10, 2013

Questions and Answers

Questions and Answers

Every year, we receive a couple dozen questions from the readers, and we do not always have time to reply to each one.  Since June, and especially since August 29, we have received some excellent questions and comments that will be shown today.  For future reference, drop us a line at: pirate_ratings at live dot com.  When we get enough to answer, we will respond with another one of these segments.

 

1. How do you calculate your ratings?  Is this something anybody could do if they had your equations?

 

Answer: This is a tough one to answer.  Our ratings are not 100% mathematical formulae.  A mathematical formula is used for the base, but the data inputted is not cut and dry.  Whereas many other ratings take the scores of games and the strengths of schedules to make a least squares or least error rating where the scores and schedule strengths fit the best pattern, our ratings try to interpret these scores before running this data.

 

For instance, let us take a game between Oregon and Idaho.  The rating may state that Oregon should win by 77 points.  If they lead 42-0 with six minutes left in the second quarter and then coast to a 66-0 win, while playing the scout team the final quarter, should we really state that the Ducks performed 11 points below par and should be penalized in their next rating?  The Ducks could have won 112-0 without emptying the bench.  We look at how the score was made and not just the score.

 

In another instance, let’s say the final score of a game was 28 to 14.  There are so many different ways to interpret this 14 point win.  It could have been 21-14 with seconds remaining in the game and with the trailing team knocking at the door to tie it up and force overtime.  Let’s say the trailing team threw a pass in the end zone, and the ball went through the receivers’ hands and hit his shoulder pad.  The ball went flying through the air.  Had it flown left, another receiver would have easily caught the ball for a touchdown.  However, it flew right, into the hands of the strong safety, who caught it and ran 106 yards for a touchdown to make the score 28-14 instead of 21-21.  The direction of the deflection cannot be counted as 14 points.  No one play is worth that.

 

What if this 28-14 game was 28-0 with six minutes to go, and the scrubs scored a touchdown to cut it to 28-7, and then the leading team’s scrubs fumbled and gave up another touchdown with now four minutes to go.  The leading team then put their starters back in and drove from their 25 to the opposing 5 yard line before running out the clock.  This game could have been 42-0 if not for the reserves.  In a close game, those reserves will have little input in a future game.

 

2. What are the differences in your three ratings—PiRate, Mean, and Bias?

 

Answer: Okay, this one can be different depending on the year in question.  The PiRate Regular ratings stay the same every year.  They have not deviated since the advent of the Internet making statistical research so easy.

 

The Mean and Bias ratings have been tinkered with over the last 10 years.  In fact, the Mean rating has changed since 2011.  We perform 14 different calculations to start each season.  We look at returning lettermen and starters.  Each player at a positiong has a certain value, so that a returning starting left tackle earns the same points for Oregon and Alabama as it does for Georgia State and South Alabama.  This data is looked at many ways.  In one system, we may give more emphasis to the quarterback and wide receivers than in another system.  Our favorite calculation actually gives more weight to the interior lines than any of the skill positions.

 

After we calculate all the ratings, we adjust the previous year’s final rating for each team by the change in personnel entering this year.  For the PiRate regular rating, we take the 5 calculations that have always been used.  For the Mean rating, we take the 14 calculations and take the average rating.  For the Bias rating, we take the original 5 calculations and weight them a little differently.  Two of the calculations count 30% each; a third calculation counts 20%; and the other two count 10% each.  Thus, the PiRate Regular and Bias ratings will begin the season differing very little.

 

Additionally, each of the three ratings have a unique updating formula.  The PiRate Regular rating has the most conservative update and will not vary as much as the other two.  The Bias Rating has a more liberal update, and it will be more like the betting public and emphasize the most recent game over all others.  The Mean rating will usually have a smaller spread believing that the most recent game is part of a larger trend, but oftentimes overemphasized.  Thus, the Mean rating will frequently differ in the predicted winner when compared with the other two.  This is great for our purposes, for when the three ratings agree in a similar point-range, we believe this game is less uncertain than the average game.  In fact, over the last few years, when the three ratings take the same side of a selection, and the difference is two points or more on all three ratings, that selection has been the correct side about 62% of the time.  At 62%, you can get rich slowly if you have the courage to believe it will continue.  Of course, that 62% has a rather high standard deviation.  One year, the accuracy was just 46.4%.  One year, it was 73.1%.  One year, the number of plays this system generated exceeded 240 for the season, while just a couple years ago, there were only 97 plays for the season (which happened to be the 73.1% year at 68-25-4).

 

3. You once said that strength of schedule did not count for much in your system.  How can you be accurate then?

 

Answer: This statement is somewhat true, but let us explain what we mean.  We believe that the strength of a team lies in its talent, its teamwork, its coaching, and its commitment to win.  The schedule does not indicate how good a team may or may not be.  It may be how the rankings and BCS standings are determined, but we do not issue ratings to try to pick how the teams will be ranked or even which teams will play in the National Championship Game.  We want to rate the teams from best to worst and only care to compare which teams are actually better than others and by how many points.

 

Here is why strength of schedule is useless to us.  Let’s say that my friend the high school coach has just been hired at Old Dominion as the Monarchs move to FBS status.  In the first three years there, he successfully recruits the next Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Anthony Gonzalez, Maurkice Pouncey, Mike Iupati, Andy Levitre, Ryan Clady, and Joe Staley to start on offense.  On defense, he signs Geno Atkins, Vince Wilfork, J.J. Watt, Julius Peppers, Patrick Willis, Clay Matthews, DeMarcus Ware, Darrelle Revis, Charles Tillman, Earl Thomas, and Eric Berry to start on defense.

 

Without a doubt, no team in college football could equal talent like this.  Not only are these guys obvious first team all-Americans, every one is a future first team All-NFL.  Even Alabama could not compete against this team.

 

Now, this ODU team’s schedule is: Georgia State, Charlotte, Appalachian St., Louisiana-Monroe, Massachusetts, Troy, South Alabama, Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas St., Georgia Southern, Texas St., and Army.  There is no doubt that they will go 12-0 and outscore this dozen by about 500-700 points.  Yet, the strength of schedule may rank this team around #20.  If this were this season, they would not even compete for an at-large BCS Bowl Bid, and they would have to settle for something like the New Orleans or Military Bowl.

 

This has been the case in the past.  In 1970, Arizona State had the best team in the nation.  They did not get a chance to play in a big bowl and had to settle for the Peach, where they won handily.  Nebraska was two touchdowns weaker in 1970 than they would be in 1971, and the Sun Devils had the better team in 1970, when they ran the table and proved unstoppable on offense.

 

In 1969, Penn State was probably a little better than Texas.  The Longhorns’ new Wishbone offense proved to be an excellent weapon, but by the end of the season, teams had figured out how to slow it down.  Only a miracle comeback even got UT to the Cotton Bowl, and then in the Cotton Bowl, they had trouble with a very good but not great Notre Dame team.  Meanwhile, Penn State had perhaps the best college defense in the last eight years.  This defense and the special teams actually scored or set up the score for more points than they gave up.  Additionally, it was a team that went 11-0 for the second consecutive season and would place a host of players in the NFL.  How strong was that Penn St. team?  Their second and third running options were Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell, two future NFL stars.  Their quarterback, Chuck Burkhart NEVER lost a game where he was the starting QB—that includes college, high school, and junior high—undefeated for life!

 

The end of the BCS era does not signal the end of this travesty.  Still, big name schools with gaudy schedules will beat out other schools for one of the four playoff berths.  There should be no selection of playoff berths.  There should be set guidelines that allow each team to qualify for a berth by winning on the field just like the NFL.  The last several Super Bowl Champs might never have been in the playoffs to begin with if they had to be selected as one of the top four teams.   Baltimore would have been left out last year.  The Green Bay Packers and New York Giants would not have qualified when they won their most recent Super Bowls.  It is our opinion, that this tournament needs to be eight-deep with each of the eight teams qualifying by winning on the field and clinching a spot based only on games played and never on human selection.

 

5. You used to report for Vanderbilt, and you stated that you married into a University of Wisconsin and Green Bay Packer family.  How do we know that you do not fudge on these teams and rate them higher than they deserve?

 

Answer: You are confusing ranking and rating.  Ranking might bring into play human partiality, but we are trying to rate teams based on how this rating can be used to select against the spread.  We would be quite happy for these three teams to win every week, but what most excites us is picking all the winners against the spread.  So, our love of being accurate is really all that matters.  We have no influence over the rankings, so it really matters not which teams we cheer for.  And, to tell you the truth, some of us root for different teams.  And, we are not fanatical fans.  Our founder has cultivated friendships with athletic officials at numerous schools including those at the University of Tennessee, the University of Minnesota, and personnel with the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns.  He never roots against anybody.  His love of the game is what keeps his interest going, and as a long-time coach in football and basketball, his first love is watching teams practice.  As most long-time coaches will agree, they miss the practices when they retire.  They don’t really miss the games, the schmoozing with alumni, the media, etc.

 

6. What happened to your Computer Simulations?

Answer: We regret to say that we lost access to the college campus computer that allowed us to run these simulations.  So, unless this changes, we will not be able to offer this service in the future.

 

7. I want to make my own ratings.  Can you offer help?

Answer: This is one we get a lot.  If you want to make your own ratings, do what we did when we started out in 1969.  Begin with your own personal belief about each team.  Begin with each conference and rank the teams within the conference.  Then, take the best teams in each conference and rank against each other.  It should look something like it looked for our founder in October 1969:

 

Southwest Conference:

Arkansas 0, Texas -1, Texas Tech -27, TCU -29, SMU -30, Texas A&M -30, Rice -34, Baylor -41.

 

He did this for every conference as well as the numerous independents, which he had broken down into four regions since there were so many then.

 

At the time, Ohio St. was number one overall.  They received the top rating at 120, or 20 points better than the average team and about 40 points better than the typical weak team.  He had Arkansas as the third best of the teams, about 3 points weaker than Ohio St.  Thus for the SWC, the teams had these ratings:

 

Arkansas 117, Texas 116, Texas Tech, 90, TCU 88. SMU 87, Texas A&M 87, Rice 83, and Baylor 76.

 

At the time, he gave every team with a large stadium 4 points home field advantage, every team with an average stadium 3 points, and every team with a small stadium 2 points.

 

After each game, he raised or lowered the rating from 1 to 6 points based on the outcome of the game, or left it the same.  Whatever he gave to one team, he took the opposite away from the other.  It was crude, but he was 9 years old.   

8. Have you ever considered using more colors in your blog?

Answer: That was a great suggestion, and we took your advice this summer and began using team colors.

January 30, 2013

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl XLVII Preview

Super Bowl XLVII

Teams: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date: Sunday, February 3, 2013

Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Kickoff: 6:30 PM EST

Television: CBS

Radio: Sirius XM & Dial Global Radio Network

 

 

Tale of the Tape

 

Results

Baltimore (13-6-0)

Opponent

Bal

Opp

Cincinnati

44

13

at Philadelphia

23

24

New England

31

30

Cleveland

23

16

at Kansas City

9

6

Dallas

31

29

at Houston

13

43

at Cleveland

25

15

Oakland

55

20

at Pittsburgh

13

10

at San Diego

16

13 ot

Pittsburgh

20

23

at Washington

28

31 ot

Denver

17

34

N. Y. Giants

33

14

at Cincinnati

17

23

Playoffs

 

 

Indianapolis

24

9

at Denver

38

35  2ot

at New England

28

13

 

San Francisco (13-4-1)

Opponent

SF

Opp

at Green Bay

30

22

Detroit

27

19

at Minnesota

13

24

at N. Y. Jets

34

0

Buffalo

45

3

N. Y. Giants

3

26

Seattle

13

6

at Arizona

24

3

St. Louis

24

24 ot

Chicago

32

7

at New Orleans

31

21

at St. Louis

13

16 ot

Miami

27

13

at New England

41

34

at Seattle

13

42

Arizona

27

13

Playoffs

 

 

Green Bay

45

31

at Atlanta

28

24

 

Statistics

Passing

Baltimore

NAME

ATT

COMP

PCT

YDS

YD/ATT

YDS/G

TD

INT

SACKS

Joe Flacco

531

317

59.7

3817

7.2

224.4

22

10

35

 

San Francisco

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Colin Kaepernick

218

136

62.4

1814

8.3

130.9

10

3

16

Alex Smith

218

153

70.2

1737

8

160

13

6

24

 

Receiving

Baltimore

NAME

REC

YDS

AVG

TD

LONG

YDS/G

YAC

Anquan Boldin

65

921

14.2

4

43

61.4

238

Torrey Smith

49

855

17.4

8

54

53.4

238

Dennis Pitta

61

669

11

7

61

41.8

264

Ray Rice

61

478

7.8

1

43

29.9

452

Jacoby Jones

30

406

13.5

1

47

25.4

102

 

San Francisco

NAME

REC

YDS

AVG

TD

LONG

YDS/G

YAC

Michael Crabtree

85

1105

13

9

49

69.1

465

Vernon Davis

41

548

13.4

5

53

34.3

173

Mario Manningham

42

449

10.7

1

40

37.4

183

Randy Moss

28

434

15.5

3

55

27.1

74

Delanie Walker

21

344

16.4

3

45

21.5

59

Frank Gore

28

234

8.4

1

26

14.6

210

 

Rushing

Baltimore

NAME

ATT

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

YDS/G

FUM

LOST

Ray Rice

257

1143

4.4

46

9

71.4

1

0

Bernard Pierce

108

532

4.9

78

1

33.3

0

0

 

San Francisco

NAME

ATT

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

YDS/G

FUM

LOST

Frank Gore

258

1214

4.7

37

8

75.9

2

1

Colin Kaepernick

63

415

6.6

50

5

31.9

7

2

Kendall Hunter

72

371

5.2

26

2

33.7

0

0

 

Kicking

Baltimore

NAME

XPM

XPA

FGM

FGA

PCT

LONG

1-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50+

PTS

Justin Tucker

42

42

30

33

90.9

56

0-0

8-8

8-8

10-13

4-4

132

 

San Francisco

NAME

XPM

XPA

FGM

FGA

PCT

LONG

1-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50+

PTS

David Akers

44

44

29

42

69.0

63

1-1

8-9

11-13

7-13

2-6

131

 

Punting

Baltimore

NAME

PUNTS

YDS

LONG

AVG

NET

BLK

IN-20

TB

FC

% RET

R-AVG

Sam Koch

83

3911

60

47.1

40.8

0

28

7

13

59

7.8

 

San Francisco

NAME

PUNTS

YDS

LONG

AVG

NET

BLK

IN-20

TB

FC

% RET

R-AVG

Andy Lee

67

3226

66

48.1

43.2

0

36

4

18

53.7

6.9

 

Kick Returns

Baltimore

NAME

KR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

Jacoby Jones

38

1167

30.7

108

2

Deonte Thompson

15

389

25.9

49

0

 

San Francisco

NAME

KR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

LaMichael James

14

417

29.8

62

0

Kyle Williams

13

353

27.2

94

0

Ted Ginn

11

253

23

31

0

 

Punt Returns

Baltimore

NAME

PR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

FC

Jacoby Jones

37

341

9.2

63

1

16

 

San Francisco

NAME

PR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

FC

Ted Ginn

32

326

10.2

38

0

12

 

Depth Charts

When Baltimore Has The Ball

Baltimore Offense  
Pos

No.

Name
WR

81

Anquan Boldin
LT

74

Michael Oher
LG

73

Marshal Yanda
C

77

Matt Birk
RG

63

Bobbie Williams
RT

72

Kelechi Osemele
TE

88

Dennis Pitta
WR

82

Torrey Smith
QB

5

Joe Flacco
RB

27

Ray Rice
FB

44

Vonta Leach
TE2

86

Billy Bajema
WR3

12

Jacoby Jones

 

San Francisco Defense
Pos

No.

Name
LE

91

Ray McDonald
NT

90

Isaac Sopoaga
RE

94

Justin Smith
LOLB

55

Ahmad Brooks
LILB

53

NaVorro Bowman
RILB

52

Patrick Willis
ROLB

99

Aldon Smith
LCB

22

Carlos Rogers
RCB

25

Tarell Brown
SS

31

Donte Whitner
FS

38

Dashon Goldson
5₵

29

Chris Culliver
10₵

20

Perrish Cox

 

When San Francisco Has The Ball

San Francisco Offense
Pos

No.

Name
WR

15

Michael Crabtree
LT

74

Joe Staley
LG

77

Mike Iupati
C

59

Jonathan Goodwin
RG

75

Alex Boone
RT

76

Anthony Davis
TE

85

Vernon Davis
WR

84

Randy Moss
QB

7

Colin Kaepernick
RB

21

Frank Gore
FB

49

Bruce Miller
TE2

46

Delanie Walker
WR3

19

Ted Ginn

 

Baltimore Defense  
Pos

No.

Name
LE

90

Pernell McPhee
NT

96

Ma’ake Kemoeatu
RE

92

Haloti Ngata
LOLB

91

Courtney Upshaw
LILB

52

Ray Lewis
RILB

49

Josh Bynes
ROLB

50

Albert McClellan
LCB

24

Corey Graham
RCB

29

Cary Williams
SS

32

James Ihedigbo
FS

20

Ed Reed
5₵

23

Chykie Brown
10₵

22

Jimmy Smith

 

Special Teams

Baltimore

Pos

No.

Name
K

9

Justin Tucker
P

4

Sam Koch
KR

12

Jacoby Jones
PR

12

Jacoby Jones

 

San Francisco

Pos

No.

Name
K

2

David Akers
P

4

Andy Lee
KR

19

Ted Ginn
PR

19

Ted Ginn

 

100 Simulations

Wins

San Francisco 57  Baltimore 43 (5 Simulations Decided by Overtime)

 

Average Score

San Francisco 25.53  Baltimore 22.91

 

Standard Deviation

13.44

 

Outliers

San Francisco 38  Baltimore 12

Baltimore 35  San Francisco 10

 

Selection Information

Line: San Francisco by 3 ½

 

Totals: 47 ½

 

Money Line: San Francisco -175  Baltimore +155

 

Computer Ratings

PiRate: San Francisco by 3.8

 

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 3.4

 

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 4.2

 

PiRate Vintage: San Francisco by 2.0

 

PICKS

The PiRate Playoff Picks are 12-5-0 against the spread this year for 70.6%.  We could play use multiple selections and still be playing with house money, but we are a bit too conservative for this.  The simulations show this game to be rather risky with one of the highest standard deviations ever for a Super Bowl.

 

Our tendency is to select the underdog when the game looks like a wild one in the making.  Also, we tend to believe that the first half will be lower scoring than the second half.  If you play exotics, like halftime lines, then you might find value there.  We do not like these gimmick selections.

 

We can do one thing that sounds reasonable, and that is to believe this game will be relatively close and will stay within certain boundaries.  If we go with a 13-point Teaser with both sides and both totals, we can hope for a close game that is neither overly high-scoring or low-scoring.  Making just one selection guarantees we will be 66.7% at the worst for the playoffs and possibly 72.2% if we win.

 

Normally, we would run away from a 13-point teaser when the line is 3 ½ and the Total is 47 ½, because these are bad numbers to tease.  However, in most of our models, we see both teams scoring between 20 and 30 points, and that gives this selection a strong chance in our eyes.

 

 

13-point Teaser Pick For Super Bowl

 

4-selection parlay

San Francisco +9 ½

Baltimore +16 ½

OVER 34 ½

UNDER 60 ½

 

January 17, 2013

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Game Previews–January 20, 2013

The PiRate Simulator gave back some booty to the mean Vegas Buccaneers last week, going 2-3 in the Divisional Round selections.  This brings the playoff selections results to 10-4.  We cannot lose now, because there are only three games left in which to make selections, and we will not go 0-6.  So, we are playing with house booty.

 

Sunday, January 20, 2013

 

San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (14-3-0)

 

Time: 3:00 PM EST

 

TV: Fox

 

Georgia Dome Forecast: Indoors

 

 

 

PiRate: San Francisco by 1.1

 

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 0.2

 

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 0.5

 

PiRate Vintage: Atlanta by 2.0

 

 

 

Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4

 

Totals: 49

 

Money Line:  San Francisco -XXX  Atlanta +XXX

 

 

 

100 Computer Simulations: Atlanta 52 San Francisco 48

 

Average Score: Atlanta 24.6  San Francisco 24.4

 

Standard Deviation: 7.4

 

Outlier Home: Atlanta 30  San Francisco 10

 

Outlier Visitor: San Francisco 19  Atlanta 7

 

Outlier High: 62 Points

 

Outlier Low:  24 Points

 

 

 

PiRate Captain Says: The computer calls this game a statistical dead heat.  We believe possibly that the 49ers are going to find the Falcon defense prepared and ready to slow down Colin Kaepernick and the college-style offense.  Until one of these zone-read option QB’s actually wins a Super Bowl, we are going with the belief that a standard drop-back passer and a prepared defense will win every time when there are just four teams left in the playoffs.

 

 

 

It is just gravy that we get the Falcons as home ‘dogs.  They have the added incentive of being the overlooked team of the four that are left, and we believe Matt Ryan and company are primed to have one of those very memorable games.

 

Baltimore Ravens (12-6-0) at New England Patriots (13-4-0)

Time: 6:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Gillette Stadium Forecast: Clear with temperatures falling from the low 30’s to the low 20’s during the game

 

PiRate: New England by 10.8

PiRate Mean: New England by 9.2

PiRate Bias: New England by 7.9

PiRate Vintage: New England by 6.7

 

Vegas Line: New England by 9

Totals: 51 ½

Money Line:  New England –XXX  Baltimore +XXX

 

100 Computer Simulations: New England 62  Baltimore 38

Average Score: New England 29.4  Baltimore 23.6

Standard Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Home: New England 48  Baltimore 17

Outlier Visitor: Baltimore 41  New England 20

Outlier High: 79 points

Outlier Low: 44 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Asking New England to win by double digits in a grudge game rematch of last year’s AFC Championship is asking too much in our opinion. The Patriots should win the game, but we believe that 9 times out of 10, this game would have an outcome with the margin under 7 points, no matter which team won.  We’ll go with those odds and take the Underdog and the points.

 

The weather should be very cold, but dry and not too windy.  Tom Brady and Joe Flacco should provide three hours of quality entertainment and bring this game down to yet another last possession outcome.  Remember in the past though that almost every rematch of a conference championship game has been won by the team that won the year before. 

 

Green Bay won the Ice Bowl rematch with Dallas in 1967 after winning a close one in 1966.  Pittsburgh won the rematch with Houston in 1978 and 1979.  This game ranks up there with those games in historical importance.  It also doesn’t hurt that Green Bay and Pittsburgh were the home teams for those games, and New England is for this one.

 

 

Selections

1. Baltimore +9 ½ vs. New England

2. Atlanta +4 vs. San Francisco

 

3. 10-point Teaser

Baltimore +19 ½ vs. New England

Atlanta +14 vs. San Francisco

Baltimore and New England OVER 41 ½

 

January 9, 2013

PiRate Ratings NFL Divisional Playoff Round Preview–January 11-12, 2013

The PiRate Simulator raked in the booty in the Wildcard Round finishing with a 7-1 record in its selections.  The Divisional Round offers fewer opportunities to pinch the Las Vegans, so we will be more selective this week.

 

Saturday, January 12, 2013

 

Baltimore Ravens (11-6-0) at Denver Broncos (12-4-0)

Time: 4:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Sports Authority Field at Mile High Forecast: Partly Cloudy with Temperature falling from upper teens to lower teens

 

PiRate: Denver by 11.5

PiRate Mean: Denver by 10.8

PiRate Bias: Denver by 10.0

PiRate Vintage: Denver by 9.0

 

Vegas Line: Denver by 9

Totals: 46

Money Line:  Denver -450  Baltimore +350

 

100 Computer Simulations: Denver 85  Baltimore 15

Average Score: Denver 27.8  Baltimore 19.3

Standard Deviation: 9.9

Outlier Home: Denver 42  Baltimore 16

Outlier Visitor: Baltimore 31  Denver 16

Outlier High: 61 points

Outlier Low: 31 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Our computer simulator says that Denver is the overwhelming choice to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but the simulation for this game does not give us a wagering option on its own.  The simulated spread average is 8.5, while the Vegas Line is 9.  The simulated totals average is 47.1 while the Vegas Total is 46.  We believe the simulator showing Peyton Manning and Company to have an 85% chance of winning.  Weather could be a factor.  With temperatures in the teens and dropping, the game could become more defensive than expected.  However, Denver cold is very dry and does not feel as cold as the Northeast.

 

 

Green Bay Packers (12-5-0) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)

Time: 8:00 PM EST

TV: Fox

Candlestick Park Forecast: Slight Chance of Rain Showers with Temperature in Mid-40’s

 

PiRate: San Francisco by 3.9

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 3.4

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 3.0

PiRate Vintage: San Francisco by 2.5

 

Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3

Totals: 45

Money Line:  San Francisco -150  Green Bay +130

 

100 Computer Simulations: Green Bay 53  San Francisco 47

Average Score: Green Bay 26.1  San Francisco 25.1

Standard Deviation: 9.0

Outlier Home: San Francisco 42  Green Bay 12

Outlier Visitor: Green Bay 34  San Francisco 16

Outlier High: 72 Points

Outlier Low:  27 Points

 

PiRate Captain Says: We were quite surprised with this simulation, as we expected the 49ers to be heavy favorites.  When Green Bay came up with the majority of the wins as well as the winning mean, it tripped a play we rarely ever consider, taking the Money Line underdog.  It is an option if you want to try to make $1.30 on every $1 you invest.  We will not make than an official selection, but we will take the Packers and the points.

 

1. Green Bay +3

2. OVER 45

 

 

Sunday, January 13. 2013

 

Seattle Seahawks (12-5-0) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3-0)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

TV: Fox

Georgia Dome Forecast: Indoors

 

PiRate: Seattle by 5.2

PiRate Mean: Seattle by 3.1

PiRate Bias: Seattle by 1.5

PiRate Vintage: Tossup

 

Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 ½

Totals: 46

Money Line:  Atlanta -135  Seattle +115

 

100 Computer Simulations:  Seattle 52  Atlanta 48

Average Score: Seattle 21.3  Atlanta 20.0

Standard Deviation: 10.8

Outlier Home: Atlanta 33  Seattle 10

Outlier Visitor: Seattle 37  Atlanta 16 (+2 other 21-point spreads)

Outlier High: 66 Points

Outlier Low:  22 Points

 

PiRate Captain Says: It has been three years since the NFC number one seed advanced to the Super Bowl.  Atlanta earned that honor two seasons ago and fell to Green Bay in this same Divisional Round.  That Green Bay team had an unstoppable offense at the end of the season.  Seattle appears to be the 2010 Green Bay of 2012.  The Seahawks’ offense was slowed against Washington but not stopped.

 

3. Seattle +2 ½

4. UNDER 46

 

 

Houston Texans (13-4-0) at New England Patriots (12-4-0)

Time: 4:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Gillette Stadium Forecast: Mostly Cloudy with Temperature in Upper 40’s

 

PiRate: New England by 11.5

PiRate Mean: New England by 9.4

PiRate Bias: New England by 8.0

PiRate Vintage: New England by 6.0

 

Vegas Line: New England by 9 ½

Totals: 47 ½

Money Line:  New England -450  Houston +350

 

100 Computer Simulations: New England 82  Houston 18

Average Score: New England 27.0  Houston 20.8

Standard Deviation: 8.3

Outlier Home: New England 42  Houston 13

Outlier Visitor: Houston 28  New England 17

Outlier High: 63 Points

Outlier Low:  30 Points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Like the other AFC playoff game, the simulation averages and the spreads are much too close.  We can only include this game as part of a parlay.

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Denver +1 vs. Baltimore

Seattle +12 ½ vs. Atlanta

New England + ½ vs. Houston

January 7, 2013

PiRate Ratings College Football National Championship Game Preview

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 5:52 am

Monday, January 7, 2013

 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

 

Time: 8:30 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami

Sun Life Stadium Forecast: Partly Cloudy and Humid, with Temperature in low 70’s, 10% Chance of Rain

 

Notre Dame (12-0)

Navy

50

10

 
Purdue

20

17

 
Michigan State

20

3

 
Michigan

13

6

 
Miami (Fla)

41

3

 
Stanford

20

13

 ot
B Y U

17

14

 
Oklahoma

30

13

 
Pittsburgh

29

26

 3 ot
Boston College

21

6

 
Wake Forest

38

0

 
Southern Cal

22

13

 

321

124

Average

26.8

10.3

Alabama (12-1)


Michigan

41

14

Western Kentucky

35

0

Arkansas

52

0

Florida Atlantic

40

7

Ole Miss

33

14

Missouri

42

10

Tennessee

44

13

Mississippi State

38

7

L S U

21

17

Texas A&M

24

29

Western Carolina

49

0

Auburn

49

0

Georgia

32

28

500

139

Average

38.5

10.7

 

 

 

PiRate: Alabama by 7.9

PiRate Vintage: Alabama by 2.0

 

Vegas Line: Alabama by 9 ½

Totals: 40 ½

Money Line:  Alabama -360  Notre Dame +300

 

100 Computer Simulations: Alabama 62  Notre Dame 38 (8 games went to OT)

Average Score: Alabama 19.4  Notre Dame 13.9

Standard Deviation: 8.3

Outlier ND: Notre Dame 22  Alabama 7

Outlier ALA: Alabama 38  Notre Dame 20

Outlier High: 64 points

Outlier Low: 9 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Lay off this one.  The Standard Deviation on the sides and the totals makes this unplayable for the PiRates.  We would go with Alabama at -360 in the Money Line, but we never play a Money Line at those odds, and there are no games to combine into a parlay.  We would go with Notre Dame +10 ½ if the spread moved there, but we don’t have a play at 9 ½.  You could buy a half-point if you can find the game at +10.  Because the possibility of overtime is above average, we would be hesitant to play the Under.  A 17-17 tie at the end of regulation could become a 30-24 finish.

January 3, 2013

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Wildcard Round: January 5-6, 2013

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

 

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

106.6

105.8

105.2

104.5

3.5

Washington Redskins

102.7

103.8

104.6

105.5

2.5

Dallas Cowboys

99.2

99.3

99.4

99.5

1

Philadelphia Eagles

91.7

90.8

90.2

89.5

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

106.5

106.5

106.5

106.5

3

Chicago Bears

104.7

103.2

102.2

101.0

2

Minnesota Vikings

101.6

102.2

102.6

103.0

2.5

Detroit Lions

96.1

95.1

94.3

93.5

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

104.7

105.6

106.3

107.0

2.5

New Orleans Saints

100.7

100.2

99.9

99.5

3.5

Carolina Panthers

99.7

100.0

101.4

102.5

1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

98.6

97.6

96.8

96.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Seattle Seahawks

112.2

110.7

109.7

108.5

5

San Francisco 49ers

108.4

107.9

107.5

107.0

2.5

St. Louis Rams

98.6

98.6

98.5

98.5

1.5

Arizona Cardinals

95.0

94.6

94.3

94.0

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

112.7

111.2

110.2

109.0

1.5

Miami Dolphins

98.8

98.9

98.9

99.0

2.5

New York Jets

95.0

94.0

93.3

92.5

2

Buffalo Bills

94.6

94.2

93.9

93.5

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Cincinnati Bengals

103.5

103.7

103.8

104.0

2.5

Baltimore Ravens

102.5

102.9

103.2

103.5

5

Pittsburgh Steelers

100.0

100.8

101.4

102.0

2.5

Cleveland Browns

95.0

95.4

95.7

96.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

102.9

103.6

104.0

104.5

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

97.0

99.6

101.4

103.5

3.5

Tennessee Titans

92.6

93.2

93.6

94.0

3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.5

90.5

90.5

90.5

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

111.0

110.6

110.3

110.0

3

San Diego Chargers

98.4

99.1

99.5

100.0

1.5

Oakland Raiders

90.9

92.2

93.0

94.0

3.5

Kansas City Chiefs

87.6

87.8

87.9

88.0

3.5

 

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

 

Saturday, January 5, 2013

 

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6-0) at Houston Texans (12-4-0)

Time: 4:30 PM EST

TV: NBC

Reliant Stadium Forecast: With rain in the forecast, the dome will be closed

 

PiRate: Houston by 1.9

PiRate Mean: Houston by 2.4

PiRate Bias: Houston by 2.7

PiRate Vintage: Houston by 3.0

 

Vegas Line: Houston by 4 ½

Totals: 43 ½

Money Line:  Houston -220  Cincinnati +180

 

100 Computer Simulations: Houston 56  Cincinnati 44

Average Score: Houston 24.2  Cincinnati 16.6

Standard Deviation: 7.7

Outlier Home: Houston 45  Cincinnati 14

Outlier Visitor: Cincinnati 26  Houston 10

Outlier High: 62 points

Outlier Low: 27 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Houston -4 ½  and  Under 43 ½  and Houston -220

 

 

Minnesota Vikings (10-6-0) at Green Bay Packers (11-5-0)

Time: 8:00 PM EST

TV: NBC

Lambeau Field Forecast: Cloudy, Temperature holding steady around 22 degrees

 

PiRate: Green Bay by 7.9

PiRate Mean: Green Bay by 7.3

PiRate Bias: Green Bay by 6.9

PiRate Vintage: Green Bay by 6.5

 

Vegas Line:  Green Bay by 7 ½

Totals: 46

Money Line:  Green Bay -400  Minnesota +330

 

100 Computer Simulations: Green Bay 78  Minnesota 22

Average Score: Green Bay 29.0  Minnesota 18.1

Standard Deviation: 8.0

Outlier Home: Green Bay 44 Minnesota 17

Outlier Visitor: Minnesota 27  Green Bay 17

Outlier High: 65 points

Outlier Low: 23 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: No Sides or Totals selections look good

Condition of Chris Ponder’s throwing elbow can affect this game too much

See Money Line Parlay below in following game

 

Sunday, Janurary 6, 2013

 

Indianapolis Colts (11-5-0) at Baltimore Ravens (10-6-0)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

TV: CBS

M&T Bank Stadium Forecast: Partly Sunny, Temperature in low 40’s

 

PiRate: Baltimore by 9.5

PiRate Mean: Baltimore by 7.3

PiRate Bias: Baltimore by 5.8

PiRate Vintage: Baltimore by 4.0

 

Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7

Totals: 47

Money Line:  Baltimore -320  Indianapolis +260

 

100 Computer Simulations: Baltimore 81  Indianapolis 19

Average Score: Baltimore 24.1  Cincinnati 15.6

Standard Deviation: 9.1

Outlier Home: Baltimore 35  Indianapolis 7

Outlier Visitor: Indianapolis 23  Baltimore 13

Outlier High: 59 points

Outlier Low: 23 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Under 47 and Baltimore with Green Bay in Money Line parlay at -156

 

 

Seattle Seahawks (11-5-0) at Washington Redskins (10-6-0)

Time: 4:30 PM EST

TV: Fox

Fedex Field Forecast: Partly Cloudy, Temperature in low 40’s falling to the upper 30’s

 

PiRate: Seattle by 6.5

PiRate Mean: Seattle by 3.9

PiRate Bias: Seattle by 2.1

PiRate Vintage: Even

 

Vegas Line: Seattle by 3

Totals: 46

Money Line:  Seattle -150  Washington +130

 

100 Computer Simulations: Seattle 53  Washington 47

Average Score: Seattle 29.5  Washington 23.4

Standard Deviation: 14.5

Outlier Home: Washington 41  Seattle 21

Outlier Visitor:  Seattle 51  Washington 17

Outlier High: 79 points

Outlier Low: 39 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Over 46 (Weather will be no factor, and this game should be an exciting offensive showcase for the two rookie phenoms)

 

10- point Teaser for Wildcard Round

Cincinnati +14 ½

Baltimore + 3

Seattle +7

 

13-point Teaser for Wildcard Round

Houston & Cincinnati Over 30 ½

Minnesota +20 ½ vs. Green Bay

Minnesota & Green Bay Over 33

Seattle & Washington Over 33

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