The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for December 29-30, 2018

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Teams in Power Conferences

Saturday

Home Team Visitor Spread
North Carolina Davidson 6.2
Notre Dame Coppin St. 28.8
Louisville Kentucky -3.4
Wake Forest Gardner-Webb 3.3
Syracuse St. Bonaventure 11.8
Pittsburgh Colgate 5.4
Miami (Fla.) Campbell 12.4
Kansas Eastern Michigan 17.1
Oklahoma St. Texas A&M–C.C. 18.9
Baylor New Orleans 14.5
Kansas St. George Mason 17.0
Ohio St. High Point 15.3
Penn St. Md.-Baltimore Co. 6.0
Michigan St. Northern Illinois 23.3
Illinois Florida Atlantic 11.9
Rutgers Maine 10.4
Purdue Belmont 9.7
Western Kentucky Wisconsin -6.6
Maryland Radford 8.3
Iowa Bryant 26.6
Utah Nevada -10.1
Washington St. Santa Clara 6.7
Arizona St. Princeton 14.7
UCLA Liberty 6.0
Boise St. Oregon 2.7
California Seattle -0.2
Oregon St. Central Connecticut 16.5
Stanford Long Beach St. 9.9
Mississippi St. BYU 6.8
Tennessee Tennessee Tech 28.0
Vanderbilt Tennessee St. 15.9
Missouri Morehead St. 16.5
Ole Miss Florida Gulf Coast 5.6
Texas A&M Texas Southern 12.7
Florida Butler 3.4
Auburn North Florida 19.6

 

Sunday

Home Team Visitor Spread
Michigan Binghamton 23.1
West Virginia Lehigh 13.0
Clemson Lipscomb 9.9
Minnesota Mount St. Mary’s 15.2
Northwestern Columbia 13.9
Georgia U Mass 6.0
USC UC-Davis 12.3

 

Basketball Ratings Explanation

We are very happy to have your patronage here at the PiRate Ratings, and we know that since the end of last basketball season, we have seen more than one thousand new readers discover us through other sites.  We really appreciate those of you that have sent us comments saying that you posted our site on sports forums.  We need to explain how we calculate our basketball ratings, which are entirely different from how we calculate our football ratings.

First, our basketball ratings are 100% derived from the “Four Factors” and Schedule Strength.  Thus, it takes a long time to input the ratings for each team, since all 353 teams’ statistics must be updated after every game played by every Division 1 team.  We can only do this late Thursday Night in order to publish on Friday.  You will only see us submit games involving Power Conference teams that are playing Division 1 opponents on Saturday or Sunday every week, until March.  We will occasionally add top Mid-Majors like Gonzaga, Buffalo, and Nevada, as long as they are in the top 25 or close to it and look like at-large candidates for the NCAA Tournament if they don’t get the automatic bid.

What are the Four Factors?

Those of you that know us know that our PiRate Captain is a baseball sabermetrician and former Major League analyticist and scout.  He likes to see the Four Factors as something similar to Weighted On-Base Average and WAR in baseball.  Since baseball players’ stats can be calculated to figure out expected wins, he believes that similar basketball data can be calculated to determine the winner in college basketball games.  He goes one step further, trying to find an algorithm that also estimates the pointspread.  This is an ongoing experiment in its fifth year, with the algorithm being tweaked a little each year, much like the wOBA numbers adjust every year in baseball.

Here are the Four Factors for College Basketball as Used by the PiRate Captain.  Because they apply to offense and defense, they are really like Eight Factors.

1.) Effective Field Goal Percentage 

This is a measure that combines two-point and three-point shooting percentages into one.  Since a made three-point basket is the same as 1.5 made two-point baskets, the easy calculation for this stat is. (FG + 0.5*3pt))/FGA

where FG is all field goals made, 3 pt is three-pointers made, and FGA is all field goals attempted.

If your team makes 28 baskets in a game, with 8 of those being 3-pointers and attempts 60 shots in a game, their EFG% is: (28+(0.5*8)/60, which equals 53.3%

 

2.) Turnover % 

This measures the percentage of possessions in which a team turns the ball over without a shot and conversely forces the opponent to turn the ball over without a shot.  The PiRates add a little bit of a twist to how most analytics folks use this one.  We will explain the R+T factor later, but for now consider that a steal is a more important turnover than all others, because many times a steal leads to easy points and possible fouls.

The TOV% is simply Turnovers per 100 possessions.  So that if a team has 70 possessions in a game and turns the ball over 14 times, their TOV% would be (14/70*100) = 20.0%

College Basketball Possessions are now kept for all games, but if you don’t have access to these stats, you can estimate possessions per game by the following formula used only for college and not NBA (slightly different formula for the pros)

FGA + (0.465* FTA) – Off Rebounds + Turnovers

 

3.) Offensive Rebounding Percentage

This is actually both offensive and defensive rebounding margin, since opponents’ offensive rebounding margin is the other teams’ defensive rebounding margin.

You calculate this for both teams by this easy formula: (100* Off. Rebounds) / (Off. Rebounds + other team’s Def. Rebounds)

If your team has 15 offensive rebounds, and the other team has 25 defensive rebounds, your team’s Off. Reb % is (100*15)/(15+25) =37.5%

 

4.) Free Throw Rate

The “experts” disagree on how to calculate this rating.  Some of the most famous people that release advanced metric cannot come to a consensus.  There is a problem with free throws to begin with, because late in games, the trailing team deliberately fouls the leading team, thus giving the most likely winner more chances at going to the foul line than the actual game flow indicates.  Earlier this year, a team we watched on TV had attempted 12 foul shots in the first 34 minutes of the game, and instead of being ahead by 20 points (which they should have been), they only led by 5 with 6 minutes to play.  The underdog team tried to play pressure defense but could not force turnovers, so they began fouling and fouling and fouling.  Meanwhile, they bricked a lot of 3-pointers at their end, and the final outcome was 17 points.  The winning team with just 12 FTA in the first 34 minutes shot 13 more in the final 6 minutes.

This is the type of thing that gives this part of the rating too much weighting, and we tend to lower the importance of this rating for that purpose.  Over the course of NCAA Basketball history, the top foul shooting teams have tended to underperform in the Big Dance, while the National Champions have tended to be a little below normal in free throw percentage but above normal in drawing fouls, again mostly because the other team is forced to foul in the final minutes.

This is the formula we use at the PiRate Ratings: FT Made per 100 possession.

We hope this explains a little about how we calculate our ratings.  Obviously, to explain our algorithm would be like giving you the formula for Coca-Cola or Pepsi.  Plus, it would be too difficult to explain how we back-tested numbers until we came up with the exact formula, which is tweaked a little every season.

Our Plan For 2019

We plan to issue two posts per week until the start of conference tournament play in late February.  Our Monday or Tuesday publication will be our most popular feature of the entire site.  We have a baker’s dozen of accurate bracketologists (some of whom have their own sites) that send us their weekly bracketology.  We call these guys (and one gal) our Bracket Gurus.  This will be the Gurus’ third year doing this for us.  In 2017, they went 68 for 68 correctly picking every team chosen for the field.  In 2018, they went 67 for 68, so in two years, they have picked 135 out of the 136 teams.  The famous bracketologists on the big national sites average about 65 1/2 correct every year, so our Gurus are better than the leading brands.

We will issue a Friday afternoon publication like this one.  The regular menu for Friday is to post the spreads of the power conference team games for the weekend, our PiRate Ratings rankings, and then something we hope you find of interest.  In the past, we have spotlighted low and mid-major teams that might have a chance to create a little havoc in March; featured the up and coming assistant coaches that we believe will become successful head coaches; and written a little about something interesting in basketball history.  Our captain has been watching college basketball since the 1963-64 season, and he can describe the UCLA-Duke championship game like he is watching live today.  It didn’t hurt that he was a left-handed point guard who thought Gail Goodrich was an older version of him until Louie Dampier starred for Kentucky once Goodrich graduated.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk Team PiRate Rating
1 Duke 122.9
2 Gonzaga 118.5
3 Virginia 117.8
4 Michigan St. 116.3
5 Virginia Tech 115.9
6 Texas Tech 115.2
7 Nevada 115.2
8 Tennessee 115.0
9 Auburn 114.7
10 Wisconsin 114.5
11 Iowa St. 113.7
12 Florida St. 113.4
13 Kansas St. 113.2
14 Villanova 113.0
15 Purdue 113.0
16 Oklahoma 112.6
17 Indiana 112.6
18 Cincinnati 112.0
19 TCU 111.9
20 Buffalo 111.6
21 Florida 111.5
22 Butler 111.1
23 Iowa 111.0
24 Kansas 110.8
25 Creighton 110.4
26 Houston 110.3
27 Mississippi St. 110.2
28 Clemson 110.1
29 Syracuse 110.0
30 Arizona St. 109.8
31 Texas 109.6
32 Michigan 109.6
33 UCF 109.5
34 Kentucky 109.4
35 San Francisco 109.1
36 Saint Mary’s 109.1
37 St. John’s 109.0
38 Utah St. 109.0
39 West Virginia 108.7
40 Fresno St. 108.3
41 Notre Dame 108.3
42 Arizona 108.0
43 Seton Hall 107.9
44 Oklahoma St. 107.9
45 North Carolina 107.8
46 Wofford 107.8
47 Nebraska 107.8
48 Northwestern 107.8
49 Washington 107.7
50 Ohio St. 107.6
51 Alabama 107.4
52 Maryland 107.3
53 Vanderbilt 107.3
54 Baylor 107.2
55 Providence 107.1
56 Toledo 107.1
57 Missouri 107.0
58 Temple 107.0
59 Oregon St. 106.8
60 Belmont 106.8
61 UCLA 106.7
62 Northern Colorado 106.7
63 North Carolina St. 106.6
64 Texas A&M 106.6
65 BYU 106.4
66 VCU 106.4
67 Xavier 106.3
68 San Diego St. 106.3
69 Dayton 106.2
70 Colorado 106.2
71 Marshall 106.0
72 Louisiana 106.0
73 Penn 105.9
74 Loyola Marymount 105.8
75 Connecticut 105.7
76 Old Dominion 105.7
77 Marquette 105.6
78 Ball St. 105.6
79 Davidson 105.6
80 USC 105.6
81 San Diego 105.5
82 SMU 105.5
83 South Dakota St. 105.4
84 Yale 105.3
85 New Mexico 105.3
86 Miami FL 105.0
87 Furman 104.9
88 Boston College 104.9
89 UC Irvine 104.9
90 Hofstra 104.8
91 Georgia 104.8
92 Georgia Tech 104.7
93 Rutgers 104.6
94 Penn St. 104.5
95 Illinois 104.5
96 Rhode Island 104.4
97 Western Kentucky 104.4
98 East Tennessee St. 104.3
99 Harvard 104.3
100 New Mexico St. 104.3
101 Lipscomb 104.2
102 Saint Joseph’s 104.1
103 Georgia St. 104.1
104 Saint Louis 104.1
105 Georgetown 104.1
106 DePaul 104.1
107 Miami OH 104.1
108 Akron 104.0
109 Vermont 104.0
110 Charleston 104.0
111 Northeastern 103.8
112 Loyola Chicago 103.7
113 Liberty 103.7
114 Louisville 103.5
115 Wichita St. 103.5
116 Stanford 103.4
117 LSU 103.2
118 South Carolina 103.2
119 Tulsa 103.0
120 Grand Canyon 102.8
121 Texas St. 102.8
122 Middle Tennessee 102.6
123 Minnesota 102.6
124 Oregon 102.6
125 Southern Illinois 102.6
126 Radford 102.5
127 Georgia Southern 102.4
128 Boise St. 102.3
129 Austin Peay 102.2
130 Drake 102.2
131 Pittsburgh 101.9
132 Massachusetts 101.8
133 Utah Valley 101.7
134 Wright St. 101.7
135 Southern Miss 101.7
136 UCSB 101.6
137 Bucknell 101.6
138 Utah 101.6
139 UNLV 101.5
140 Pacific 101.5
141 UMBC 101.5
142 Rider 101.4
143 Northern Kentucky 101.3
144 St. Bonaventure 101.2
145 Mercer 101.1
146 Wake Forest 101.1
147 Indiana St. 101.0
148 Louisiana Monroe 100.9
149 Gardner Webb 100.8
150 Missouri St. 100.7
151 Brown 100.7
152 Pepperdine 100.6
153 Murray St. 100.6
154 Seattle 100.6
155 Winthrop 100.5
156 LIU Brooklyn 100.4
157 Arkansas 100.1
158 Duquesne 100.1
159 The Citadel 100.0
160 Colgate 100.0
161 Richmond 100.0
162 North Texas 100.0
163 Holy Cross 99.9
164 Louisiana Tech 99.9
165 Bradley 99.8
166 Washington St. 99.8
167 Weber St. 99.8
168 Memphis 99.7
169 Troy 99.7
170 Lehigh 99.7
171 George Mason 99.7
172 UNC Wilmington 99.6
173 Stony Brook 99.6
174 South Florida 99.6
175 Central Michigan 99.6
176 Valparaiso 99.6
177 Samford 99.5
178 Green Bay 99.4
179 Illinois St. 99.4
180 Jacksonville St. 99.3
181 Montana 99.3
182 Cal St. Fullerton 99.2
183 UAB 99.1
184 Abilene Christian 99.1
185 Appalachian St. 99.0
186 Coastal Carolina 98.9
187 North Dakota St. 98.7
188 Ohio 98.6
189 Mississippi 98.6
190 Princeton 98.6
191 UNC Greensboro 98.5
192 Little Rock 98.4
193 South Dakota 98.4
194 Fordham 98.3
195 Bowling Green 98.3
196 IUPUI 98.3
197 Stephen F. Austin 98.2
198 Northern Iowa 98.1
199 Evansville 98.1
200 Hawaii 98.1
201 Purdue Fort Wayne 98.1
202 North Florida 98.1
203 Loyola MD 98.1
204 Omaha 98.0
205 American 98.0
206 South Alabama 97.8
207 NJIT 97.7
208 Portland 97.7
209 Eastern Michigan 97.7
210 William & Mary 97.6
211 Iona 97.5
212 Dartmouth 97.5
213 Western Michigan 97.5
214 Boston University 97.5
215 California 97.4
216 La Salle 97.3
217 Northern Arizona 97.2
218 Maine 97.2
219 Navy 97.2
220 Hartford 97.0
221 Illinois Chicago 97.0
222 UTSA 97.0
223 Canisius 97.0
224 Oral Roberts 97.0
225 St. Francis PA 97.0
226 Columbia 96.9
227 Kent St. 96.8
228 FIU 96.8
229 Arkansas Pine Bluff 96.7
230 UNC Asheville 96.6
231 Cal Baptist 96.5
232 Sacramento St. 96.5
233 Montana St. 96.5
234 Northern Illinois 96.5
235 Long Beach St. 96.5
236 Hampton 96.4
237 Texas Southern 96.4
238 Delaware 96.4
239 Kennesaw St. 96.4
240 UC Davis 96.3
241 Santa Clara 96.1
242 Florida Atlantic 96.1
243 Colorado St. 96.1
244 UTEP 96.1
245 Florida Gulf Coast 96.0
246 Lafayette 95.9
247 High Point 95.8
248 Fairfield 95.7
249 New Orleans 95.7
250 Charleston Southern 95.7
251 Cornell 95.7
252 Campbell 95.6
253 Wagner 95.5
254 Cleveland St. 95.5
255 Cal St. Bakersfield 95.5
256 Southern Utah 95.5
257 Norfolk St. 95.5
258 Milwaukee 95.4
259 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.4
260 Western Illinois 95.3
261 UMKC 95.3
262 Quinnipiac 95.1
263 Wyoming 95.0
264 Towson 95.0
265 Presbyterian 95.0
266 Idaho St. 94.9
267 UT Arlington 94.8
268 Tulane 94.7
269 Lamar 94.7
270 Eastern Kentucky 94.7
271 Niagara 94.7
272 Army 94.7
273 Drexel 94.6
274 Sam Houston St. 94.6
275 Monmouth 94.6
276 Mississippi Valley St. 94.5
277 Nicholls St. 94.4
278 James Madison 94.4
279 Prairie View A&M 94.4
280 Marist 94.4
281 Air Force 94.3
282 Eastern Washington 94.3
283 UT Rio Grande Valley 94.2
284 Northwestern St. 94.2
285 East Carolina 94.2
286 St. Francis NY 94.2
287 Siena 94.2
288 Cal St. Northridge 94.1
289 Robert Morris 94.1
290 George Washington 94.1
291 SEMO 94.0
292 Grambling St. 94.0
293 Central Arkansas 94.0
294 Sacred Heart 94.0
295 Albany 93.9
296 Central Connecticut 93.8
297 Houston Baptist 93.8
298 Saint Peter’s 93.8
299 Portland St. 93.8
300 Detroit 93.7
301 Arkansas St. 93.7
302 Longwood 93.6
303 Morehead St. 93.5
304 Denver 93.4
305 McNeese St. 93.1
306 Howard 93.0
307 North Dakota 93.0
308 Tennessee St. 92.9
309 Chattanooga 92.9
310 UC Riverside 92.9
311 Eastern Illinois 92.8
312 North Carolina Central 92.7
313 UT-Martin 92.6
314 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 92.5
315 Oakland 92.5
316 Morgan St. 92.4
317 Cal Poly 92.3
318 Jackson St. 92.2
319 Jacksonville 92.0
320 Idaho 91.9
321 Charlotte 91.9
322 Bethune Cookman 91.9
323 Western Carolina 91.9
324 New Hampshire 91.7
325 Rice 91.7
326 North Carolina A&T 91.7
327 Elon 91.5
328 Youngstown St. 91.4
329 Southeastern Louisiana 91.4
330 North Alabama 91.3
331 UMass Lowell 91.3
332 VMI 90.7
333 Binghamton 90.5
334 Mount St. Mary’s 90.4
335 USC Upstate 90.1
336 Manhattan 90.1
337 San Jose St. 90.0
338 Alabama St. 90.0
339 SIU Edwardsville 89.9
340 Tennessee Tech 89.5
341 Maryland Eastern Shore 89.2
342 Southern 88.8
343 South Carolina St. 88.6
344 Florida A&M 88.5
345 Bryant 87.9
346 Stetson 87.4
347 Incarnate Word 87.2
348 Alcorn St. 86.5
349 Alabama A&M 84.6
350 Savannah St. 83.7
351 Coppin St. 83.5
352 Delaware St. 82.7
353 Chicago St. 82.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

# Team PiRate Rating Conf

1

VCU

106.4

A10

2 Dayton 106.2 A10
3 Davidson 105.6 A10
4 Rhode Island 104.4 A10
5 Saint Joseph’s 104.1 A10
6 Saint Louis 104.1 A10
7 Massachusetts 101.8 A10
8 St. Bonaventure 101.2 A10
9 Duquesne 100.1 A10
10 Richmond 100.0 A10
11 George Mason 99.7 A10
12 Fordham 98.3 A10
13 La Salle 97.3 A10
14 George Washington 94.1 A10
 

1

Duke

122.9

ACC

2 Virginia 117.8 ACC
3 Virginia Tech 115.9 ACC
4 Florida St. 113.4 ACC
5 Clemson 110.1 ACC
6 Syracuse 110.0 ACC
7 Notre Dame 108.3 ACC
8 North Carolina 107.8 ACC
9 North Carolina St. 106.6 ACC
10 Miami FL 105.0 ACC
11 Boston College 104.9 ACC
12 Georgia Tech 104.7 ACC
13 Louisville 103.5 ACC
14 Pittsburgh 101.9 ACC
15 Wake Forest 101.1 ACC
 

1

Vermont

104.0

AmEst

2 UMBC 101.5 AmEst
3 Stony Brook 99.6 AmEst
4 Maine 97.2 AmEst
5 Hartford 97.0 AmEst
6 Albany 93.9 AmEst
7 New Hampshire 91.7 AmEst
8 UMass Lowell 91.3 AmEst
9 Binghamton 90.5 AmEst
 

1

Cincinnati

112.0

AAC

2 Houston 110.3 AAC
3 UCF 109.5 AAC
4 Temple 107.0 AAC
5 Connecticut 105.7 AAC
6 SMU 105.5 AAC
7 Wichita St. 103.5 AAC
8 Tulsa 103.0 AAC
9 Memphis 99.7 AAC
10 South Florida 99.6 AAC
11 Tulane 94.7 AAC
12 East Carolina 94.2 AAC
 

1

Lipscomb

104.2

ASun

2 Liberty 103.7 ASun
3 North Florida 98.1 ASun
4 NJIT 97.7 ASun
5 Kennesaw St. 96.4 ASun
6 Florida Gulf Coast 96.0 ASun
7 Jacksonville 92.0 ASun
8 North Alabama 91.3 ASun
9 Stetson 87.4 ASun
 

1

Michigan St.

116.3

BTEN

2 Wisconsin 114.5 BTEN
3 Purdue 113.0 BTEN
4 Indiana 112.6 BTEN
5 Iowa 111.0 BTEN
6 Michigan 109.6 BTEN
7 Nebraska 107.8 BTEN
8 Northwestern 107.8 BTEN
9 Ohio St. 107.6 BTEN
10 Maryland 107.3 BTEN
11 Rutgers 104.6 BTEN
12 Penn St. 104.5 BTEN
13 Illinois 104.5 BTEN
14 Minnesota 102.6 BTEN
 

1

Texas Tech

115.2

B12

2 Iowa St. 113.7 B12
3 Kansas St. 113.2 B12
4 Oklahoma 112.6 B12
5 TCU 111.9 B12
6 Kansas 110.8 B12
7 Texas 109.6 B12
8 West Virginia 108.7 B12
9 Oklahoma St. 107.9 B12
10 Baylor 107.2 B12
 

1

Villanova

113.0

BEast

2 Butler 111.1 BEast
3 Creighton 110.4 BEast
4 St. John’s 109.0 BEast
5 Seton Hall 107.9 BEast
6 Providence 107.1 BEast
7 Xavier 106.3 BEast
8 Marquette 105.6 BEast
9 Georgetown 104.1 BEast
10 DePaul 104.1 BEast
 

1

Northern Colorado

106.7

BSky

2 Weber St. 99.8 BSky
3 Montana 99.3 BSky
4 Northern Arizona 97.2 BSky
5 Sacramento St. 96.5 BSky
6 Montana St. 96.5 BSky
7 Southern Utah 95.5 BSky
8 Idaho St. 94.9 BSky
9 Eastern Washington 94.3 BSky
10 Portland St. 93.8 BSky
11 Idaho 91.9 BSky
 

1

Radford

102.5

BSou

2 Gardner Webb 100.8 BSou
3 Winthrop 100.5 BSou
4 UNC Asheville 96.6 BSou
5 Hampton 96.4 BSou
6 High Point 95.8 BSou
7 Charleston Southern 95.7 BSou
8 Campbell 95.6 BSou
9 Presbyterian 95.0 BSou
10 Longwood 93.6 BSou
11 USC Upstate 90.1 BSou
 

1

UC Irvine

104.9

BWest

2 UCSB 101.6 BWest
3 Cal St. Fullerton 99.2 BWest
4 Hawaii 98.1 BWest
5 Long Beach St. 96.5 BWest
6 UC Davis 96.3 BWest
7 Cal St. Northridge 94.1 BWest
8 UC Riverside 92.9 BWest
9 Cal Poly 92.3 BWest
 

1

Hofstra

104.8

CAA

2 Charleston 104.0 CAA
3 Northeastern 103.8 CAA
4 UNC Wilmington 99.6 CAA
5 William & Mary 97.6 CAA
6 Delaware 96.4 CAA
7 Towson 95.0 CAA
8 Drexel 94.6 CAA
9 James Madison 94.4 CAA
10 Elon 91.5 CAA
 

1

Marshall

106.0

CUSA

2 Old Dominion 105.7 CUSA
3 Western Kentucky 104.4 CUSA
4 Middle Tennessee 102.6 CUSA
5 Southern Miss 101.7 CUSA
6 North Texas 100.0 CUSA
7 Louisiana Tech 99.9 CUSA
8 UAB 99.1 CUSA
9 UTSA 97.0 CUSA
10 FIU 96.8 CUSA
11 Florida Atlantic 96.1 CUSA
12 UTEP 96.1 CUSA
13 Charlotte 91.9 CUSA
14 Rice 91.7 CUSA
 

1

Wright St.

101.7

Horiz

2 Northern Kentucky 101.3 Horiz
3 Green Bay 99.4 Horiz
4 IUPUI 98.3 Horiz
5 Illinois Chicago 97.0 Horiz
6 Cleveland St. 95.5 Horiz
7 Milwaukee 95.4 Horiz
8 Detroit 93.7 Horiz
9 Oakland 92.5 Horiz
10 Youngstown St. 91.4 Horiz
 

1

Penn

105.9

Ivy

2 Yale 105.3 Ivy
3 Harvard 104.3 Ivy
4 Brown 100.7 Ivy
5 Princeton 98.6 Ivy
6 Dartmouth 97.5 Ivy
7 Columbia 96.9 Ivy
8 Cornell 95.7 Ivy
 

1

Rider

101.4

MAAC

2 Iona 97.5 MAAC
3 Canisius 97.0 MAAC
4 Fairfield 95.7 MAAC
5 Quinnipiac 95.1 MAAC
6 Niagara 94.7 MAAC
7 Monmouth 94.6 MAAC
8 Marist 94.4 MAAC
9 Siena 94.2 MAAC
10 Saint Peter’s 93.8 MAAC
11 Manhattan 90.1 MAAC
 

1

Buffalo

111.6

MAC

2 Toledo 107.1 MAC
3 Ball St. 105.6 MAC
4 Miami OH 104.1 MAC
5 Akron 104.0 MAC
6 Central Michigan 99.6 MAC
7 Ohio 98.6 MAC
8 Bowling Green 98.3 MAC
9 Eastern Michigan 97.7 MAC
10 Western Michigan 97.5 MAC
11 Kent St. 96.8 MAC
12 Northern Illinois 96.5 MAC
 

1

Norfolk St.

95.5

MEAC

2 Howard 93.0 MEAC
3 North Carolina Central 92.7 MEAC
4 Morgan St. 92.4 MEAC
5 Bethune Cookman 91.9 MEAC
6 North Carolina A&T 91.7 MEAC
7 Maryland Eastern Shore 89.2 MEAC
8 South Carolina St. 88.6 MEAC
9 Florida A&M 88.5 MEAC
10 Savannah St. 83.7 MEAC
11 Coppin St. 83.5 MEAC
12 Delaware St. 82.7 MEAC
 

1

Loyola Chicago

103.7

MVC

2 Southern Illinois 102.6 MVC
3 Drake 102.2 MVC
4 Indiana St. 101.0 MVC
5 Missouri St. 100.7 MVC
6 Bradley 99.8 MVC
7 Valparaiso 99.6 MVC
8 Illinois St. 99.4 MVC
9 Northern Iowa 98.1 MVC
10 Evansville 98.1 MVC
 

1

Nevada

115.2

MWC

2 Utah St. 109.0 MWC
3 Fresno St. 108.3 MWC
4 San Diego St. 106.3 MWC
5 New Mexico 105.3 MWC
6 Boise St. 102.3 MWC
7 UNLV 101.5 MWC
8 Colorado St. 96.1 MWC
9 Wyoming 95.0 MWC
10 Air Force 94.3 MWC
11 San Jose St. 90.0 MWC
 

1

LIU Brooklyn

100.4

NEC

2 St. Francis PA 97.0 NEC
3 Wagner 95.5 NEC
4 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.4 NEC
5 St. Francis NY 94.2 NEC
6 Robert Morris 94.1 NEC
7 Sacred Heart 94.0 NEC
8 Central Connecticut 93.8 NEC
9 Mount St. Mary’s 90.4 NEC
10 Bryant 87.9 NEC
 

1

Belmont

106.8

OVC

2 Austin Peay 102.2 OVC
3 Murray St. 100.6 OVC
4 Jacksonville St. 99.3 OVC
5 Eastern Kentucky 94.7 OVC
6 SEMO 94.0 OVC
7 Morehead St. 93.5 OVC
8 Tennessee St. 92.9 OVC
9 Eastern Illinois 92.8 OVC
10 UT-Martin 92.6 OVC
11 SIU Edwardsville 89.9 OVC
12 Tennessee Tech 89.5 OVC
 

1

Arizona St.

109.8

Pac12

2 Arizona 108.0 Pac12
3 Washington 107.7 Pac12
4 Oregon St. 106.8 Pac12
5 UCLA 106.7 Pac12
6 Colorado 106.2 Pac12
7 USC 105.6 Pac12
8 Stanford 103.4 Pac12
9 Oregon 102.6 Pac12
10 Utah 101.6 Pac12
11 Washington St. 99.8 Pac12
12 California 97.4 Pac12
 

1

Bucknell

101.6

Pat

2 Colgate 100.0 Pat
3 Holy Cross 99.9 Pat
4 Lehigh 99.7 Pat
5 Loyola MD 98.1 Pat
6 American 98.0 Pat
7 Boston University 97.5 Pat
8 Navy 97.2 Pat
9 Lafayette 95.9 Pat
10 Army 94.7 Pat
 

1

Louisiana

106.0

SBC

2 Georgia St. 104.1 SBC
3 Texas St. 102.8 SBC
4 Georgia Southern 102.4 SBC
5 Louisiana Monroe 100.9 SBC
6 Troy 99.7 SBC
7 Appalachian St. 99.0 SBC
8 Coastal Carolina 98.9 SBC
9 Little Rock 98.4 SBC
10 South Alabama 97.8 SBC
11 UT Arlington 94.8 SBC
12 Arkansas St. 93.7 SBC
 

1

Wofford

107.8

Socon

2 Furman 104.9 Socon
3 East Tennessee St. 104.3 Socon
4 Mercer 101.1 Socon
5 The Citadel 100.0 Socon
6 Samford 99.5 Socon
7 UNC Greensboro 98.5 Socon
8 Chattanooga 92.9 Socon
9 Western Carolina 91.9 Socon
10 VMI 90.7 Socon
 

1

Tennessee

115.0

SEC

2 Auburn 114.7 SEC
3 Florida 111.5 SEC
4 Mississippi St. 110.2 SEC
5 Kentucky 109.4 SEC
6 Alabama 107.4 SEC
7 Vanderbilt 107.3 SEC
8 Missouri 107.0 SEC
9 Texas A&M 106.6 SEC
10 Georgia 104.8 SEC
11 LSU 103.2 SEC
12 South Carolina 103.2 SEC
13 Arkansas 100.1 SEC
14 Mississippi 98.6 SEC
 

1

Abilene Christian

99.1

Southl

2 Stephen F. Austin 98.2 Southl
3 New Orleans 95.7 Southl
4 Lamar 94.7 Southl
5 Sam Houston St. 94.6 Southl
6 Nicholls St. 94.4 Southl
7 Northwestern St. 94.2 Southl
8 Central Arkansas 94.0 Southl
9 Houston Baptist 93.8 Southl
10 McNeese St. 93.1 Southl
11 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 92.5 Southl
12 Southeastern Louisiana 91.4 Southl
13 Incarnate Word 87.2 Southl
 

1

South Dakota St.

105.4

Sum

2 North Dakota St. 98.7 Sum
3 South Dakota 98.4 Sum
4 Purdue Fort Wayne 98.1 Sum
5 Omaha 98.0 Sum
6 Oral Roberts 97.0 Sum
7 Western Illinois 95.3 Sum
8 Denver 93.4 Sum
9 North Dakota 93.0 Sum
 

1

Arkansas Pine Bluff

96.7

SWAC

2 Texas Southern 96.4 SWAC
3 Mississippi Valley St. 94.5 SWAC
4 Prairie View A&M 94.4 SWAC
5 Grambling St. 94.0 SWAC
6 Jackson St. 92.2 SWAC
7 Alabama St. 90.0 SWAC
8 Southern 88.8 SWAC
9 Alcorn St. 86.5 SWAC
10 Alabama A&M 84.6 SWAC
 

1

New Mexico St.

104.3

WAC

2 Grand Canyon 102.8 WAC
3 Utah Valley 101.7 WAC
4 Seattle 100.6 WAC
5 Cal Baptist 96.5 WAC
6 Cal St. Bakersfield 95.5 WAC
7 UMKC 95.3 WAC
8 UT Rio Grande Valley 94.2 WAC
9 Chicago St. 82.3 WAC
 

1

Gonzaga

118.5

WCC

2 San Francisco 109.1 WCC
3 Saint Mary’s 109.1 WCC
4 BYU 106.4 WCC
5 Loyola Marymount 105.8 WCC
6 San Diego 105.5 WCC
7 Pacific 101.5 WCC
8 Pepperdine 100.6 WCC
9 Portland 97.7 WCC
10 Santa Clara 96.1 WCC

 

 

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January 11, 2017

Final 2016-17 College Football Ratings

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 7:07 am

Congratulations to the Clemson Tigers.  Raspberries to the NCAA.

Sadly, the viewing numbers for the National Championship game were quite low.  Aside from not being available on free TV, the college game greatly needs changes to shorten its duration.

The National Championship Game took more than four hours to play (someone on local radio mentioned it took about an hour to play the last six minutes of the game!  The game finished past Midnight on the East Coast on a weeknight.  Many fans that hoped to see the entire game fell asleep before the conclusion, and Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh admitted he was one of those that could not stay awake.

The college game needs massive change and quickly.  It is in danger of suffering from some of the same issues that have caused Major League Baseball to lose viewers.

Our recommendations for the college game include implementing many of the NFL rules:

1. No stoppage of the clock after first downs–implement a 2-minute warning for both halves.  The clock did not always stop after first downs in the college game.  That rule came in about 60 years ago.  At the time, college games lasted around 2 hours and 20 minutes in duration with about 110 plays from scrimmage.

2. Each team should receive 3 replay challenge flags per game for review.  Only the teams should instigate the reviewing of a play, except for scoring plays and plays involving a change of possession.

3. Halftime should be reduced to 12 minutes in duration

 

Other Rules Changes we advocate.

1. Pass interference returning to the same penalty as it is in the NFL.  Giving up 15 yards and a first down should never be a defensive option to use strategically.  Teams take advantage of this rule, especially late in the game, when a 15-yard advancement of the ball is disadvantageous.  This rule was changed in the 1980’s.

 

2. A player in possession of the ball should not down until he is touched.  A slippery surface should never be allowed to make a tackle for the defense.  A great catch by a receiver should not be the end of the play if no defensive player is there to stop him.

 

3. Overtimes should be changed to the current NFL OT rule, and ties should be allowed after 15 minutes.  If a playoff game ends in a regulation tie, regular sudden death overtime instead of the ridiculous 25-yard line overtime should be used.

 

The college game would be best served if the national average for scrimmage plays per game was about 120 and games did not exceed 3 hours in length.

We now step off our soapbox.  Here are our final ratings for the season.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Clemson 137.4 131.9 136.9 135.4
2 Alabama 134.5 128.2 134.6 132.4
3 Washington 132.2 125.1 131.5 129.6
4 Michigan 127.0 125.1 126.7 126.3
5 Oklahoma 126.5 124.4 126.5 125.8
6 LSU 126.6 121.9 126.3 124.9
7 Ohio St. 124.6 123.7 124.6 124.3
8 USC 124.2 119.4 122.7 122.1
9 Florida St. 123.2 117.5 122.6 121.1
10 Oklahoma St. 120.1 120.5 119.5 120.0
11 Penn St. 120.0 119.7 120.1 119.9
12 Louisville 120.2 116.9 119.8 119.0
13 Auburn 119.2 117.4 119.0 118.5
14 Virginia Tech 118.9 117.7 118.9 118.5
15 Wisconsin 118.8 116.9 119.3 118.3
16 Miami 119.1 114.1 119.1 117.4
17 Florida 115.5 115.7 114.3 115.2
18 Pittsburgh 116.0 112.1 115.2 114.4
19 North Carolina 115.9 110.6 115.4 114.0
20 Western Michigan 113.1 112.8 114.7 113.5
21 Stanford 115.2 109.6 115.0 113.3
22 Kansas St. 112.7 113.9 112.9 113.2
23 Tennessee 113.6 111.2 112.7 112.5
24 Washington St. 113.5 110.9 112.9 112.5
25 Colorado 113.6 110.1 113.5 112.4
26 Western Kentucky 112.4 110.4 113.8 112.2
27 Iowa 112.8 110.3 112.4 111.8
28 Texas A&M 112.1 111.2 111.2 111.5
29 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
30 West Virginia 111.2 110.5 110.7 110.8
31 Utah 112.5 107.8 111.1 110.5
32 Temple 109.9 109.1 110.6 109.9
33 North Carolina St. 111.1 107.3 111.0 109.8
34 Georgia Tech 110.9 107.2 110.1 109.4
35 Northwestern 110.6 107.1 109.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.5 107.8 110.1 109.1
37 Arkansas 110.8 106.3 110.0 109.1
38 Tulsa 108.0 109.2 108.5 108.6
39 BYU 109.8 106.1 109.7 108.5
40 Georgia 108.7 108.2 108.1 108.3
41 Minnesota 108.8 107.1 108.6 108.2
42 San Diego St. 107.0 105.6 109.0 107.2
43 TCU 107.0 108.6 105.9 107.2
44 Houston 106.8 105.8 107.7 106.8
45 Mississippi St. 107.7 105.8 106.5 106.7
46 Baylor 105.8 106.1 105.9 105.9
47 Nebraska 106.2 104.0 105.8 105.3
48 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
49 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
50 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
51 Navy 104.0 103.8 103.9 103.9
52 Indiana 103.7 104.6 103.2 103.8
53 Vanderbilt 105.2 102.2 103.9 103.8
54 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
55 Memphis 104.4 102.3 103.8 103.5
56 Kentucky 103.4 103.4 103.0 103.3
57 Boise St. 102.5 103.8 103.1 103.1
58 Toledo 102.2 102.9 103.1 102.7
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Wake Forest 102.8 101.0 103.0 102.3
61 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
62 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
63 Appalachian St. 100.0 101.2 101.6 100.9
64 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Louisiana Tech 97.7 99.7 99.5 99.0
68 Air Force 98.2 100.0 98.6 98.9
69 Boston College 99.6 98.1 99.0 98.9
70 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
71 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
72 South Carolina 98.8 98.3 98.3 98.5
73 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
74 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
75 Arkansas St. 95.8 98.2 97.7 97.2
76 Colorado St. 95.7 97.8 96.7 96.7
77 New Mexico 94.9 96.8 95.7 95.8
78 Maryland 95.7 97.6 94.1 95.8
79 Central Florida 95.0 96.3 95.5 95.6
80 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
81 Wyoming 94.4 94.5 95.5 94.8
82 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
83 Army 91.3 96.8 92.6 93.6
84 Troy 91.3 95.2 93.2 93.2
85 Ohio 91.1 96.7 91.6 93.2
86 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
87 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
88 Miami (O) 90.9 92.6 92.3 91.9
89 Old Dominion 89.6 92.5 90.8 91.0
90 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
91 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
92 UTSA 87.5 93.0 89.9 90.2
93 Idaho 87.7 92.0 90.0 89.9
94 Central Michigan 89.0 91.1 89.4 89.8
95 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.6 89.0 89.1 88.9
98 Eastern Michigan 87.4 89.5 88.1 88.3
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
102 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
103 Middle Tennessee 86.3 88.1 86.6 87.0
104 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
105 UL-Lafayette 84.6 88.2 86.0 86.3
106 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
107 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
111 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
112 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
113 South Alabama 81.2 87.2 81.7 83.4
114 Hawaii 83.1 83.0 83.1 83.1
115 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
116 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
117 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
118 Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 North Texas 77.5 80.5 77.9 78.7
121 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
127 UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
128 Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 109.9 109.1 110.6 109.9
South Florida 109.5 107.8 110.1 109.1
Central Florida 95.0 96.3 95.5 95.6
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tulsa 108.0 109.2 108.5 108.6
Houston 106.8 105.8 107.7 106.8
Navy 104.0 103.8 103.9 103.9
Memphis 104.4 102.3 103.8 103.5
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 98.4 98.5 98.7 98.6
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 137.4 131.9 136.9 135.4
Florida St. 123.2 117.5 122.6 121.1
Louisville 120.2 116.9 119.8 119.0
North Carolina St. 111.1 107.3 111.0 109.8
Wake Forest 102.8 101.0 103.0 102.3
Boston College 99.6 98.1 99.0 98.9
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.9 117.7 118.9 118.5
Miami 119.1 114.1 119.1 117.4
Pittsburgh 116.0 112.1 115.2 114.4
North Carolina 115.9 110.6 115.4 114.0
Georgia Tech 110.9 107.2 110.1 109.4
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 112.5 109.2 112.0 111.2
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 126.5 124.4 126.5 125.8
Oklahoma St. 120.1 120.5 119.5 120.0
Kansas St. 112.7 113.9 112.9 113.2
West Virginia 111.2 110.5 110.7 110.8
TCU 107.0 108.6 105.9 107.2
Baylor 105.8 106.1 105.9 105.9
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.7 108.3 107.0 107.7
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 127.0 125.1 126.7 126.3
Ohio St. 124.6 123.7 124.6 124.3
Penn St. 120.0 119.7 120.1 119.9
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.7 104.6 103.2 103.8
Maryland 95.7 97.6 94.1 95.8
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 118.8 116.9 119.3 118.3
Iowa 112.8 110.3 112.4 111.8
Northwestern 110.6 107.1 109.7 109.1
Minnesota 108.8 107.1 108.6 108.2
Nebraska 106.2 104.0 105.8 105.3
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.4 106.1 106.7 106.7
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 112.4 110.4 113.8 112.2
Old Dominion 89.6 92.5 90.8 91.0
Middle Tennessee 86.3 88.1 86.6 87.0
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 97.7 99.7 99.5 99.0
UTSA 87.5 93.0 89.9 90.2
Southern Mississippi 88.6 89.0 89.1 88.9
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.5 80.5 77.9 78.7
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.8 88.0 85.8 86.2
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 109.8 106.1 109.7 108.5
Army 91.3 96.8 92.6 93.6
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Independents Averages 98.3 99.4 98.6 98.7
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.1 96.7 91.6 93.2
Miami (O) 90.9 92.6 92.3 91.9
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.1 112.8 114.7 113.5
Toledo 102.2 102.9 103.1 102.7
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 89.0 91.1 89.4 89.8
Eastern Michigan 87.4 89.5 88.1 88.3
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.1 92.5 90.9 91.2
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 102.5 103.8 103.1 103.1
Air Force 98.2 100.0 98.6 98.9
Colorado St. 95.7 97.8 96.7 96.7
New Mexico 94.9 96.8 95.7 95.8
Wyoming 94.4 94.5 95.5 94.8
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 107.0 105.6 109.0 107.2
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 83.1 83.0 83.1 83.1
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.4 92.8 91.9 92.0
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 132.2 125.1 131.5 129.6
Stanford 115.2 109.6 115.0 113.3
Washington St. 113.5 110.9 112.9 112.5
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.2 119.4 122.7 122.1
Colorado 113.6 110.1 113.5 112.4
Utah 112.5 107.8 111.1 110.5
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 109.9 106.0 108.8 108.2
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 115.5 115.7 114.3 115.2
Tennessee 113.6 111.2 112.7 112.5
Georgia 108.7 108.2 108.1 108.3
Vanderbilt 105.2 102.2 103.9 103.8
Kentucky 103.4 103.4 103.0 103.3
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.8 98.3 98.3 98.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 134.5 128.2 134.6 132.4
LSU 126.6 121.9 126.3 124.9
Auburn 119.2 117.4 119.0 118.5
Texas A&M 112.1 111.2 111.2 111.5
Arkansas 110.8 106.3 110.0 109.1
Mississippi St. 107.7 105.8 106.5 106.7
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.5 109.3 110.8 110.5
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 100.0 101.2 101.6 100.9
Arkansas St. 95.8 98.2 97.7 97.2
Troy 91.3 95.2 93.2 93.2
Idaho 87.7 92.0 90.0 89.9
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
UL-Lafayette 84.6 88.2 86.0 86.3
South Alabama 81.2 87.2 81.7 83.4
Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.7 86.1 84.2 84.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC Averages 112.5 109.2 112.0 111.2
2 SEC Averages 111.5 109.3 110.8 110.5
3 Pac-12 Averages 109.9 106.0 108.8 108.2
4 Big 12 Averages 107.7 108.3 107.0 107.7
5 Big Ten Averages 107.4 106.1 106.7 106.7
6 Indep. Averages 98.3 99.4 98.6 98.7
7 AAC Averages 98.4 98.5 98.7 98.6
8 MWC Averages 91.4 92.8 91.9 92.0
9 MAC Averages 90.1 92.5 90.9 91.2
10 CUSA Averages 84.8 88.0 85.8 86.2
11 Sun Belt Averages 82.7 86.1 84.2 84.3

Note–This breaks a long streak where the SEC finished as the highest-rated conference.  The ACC surpassed the SEC thanks to an incredible bowl season that included Clemson beating Alabama, Georgia Tech beating Kentucky, Virginia Tech beating Arkansas, and North Carolina State beating Vanderbilt.

Retrodictive Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Ohio St.
4 Washington
5 Oklahoma
6 Michigan
7 Florida St.
8 USC
9 Wisconsin
10 Penn St.
11 LSU
12 Stanford
13 Western Michigan
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Florida
16 Virginia Tech
17 Colorado
18 Miami (Fla)
19 Louisville
20 Auburn
21 Tennessee
22 West Virginia
23 Western Kentucky
24 Kansas St.
25 South Florida
26 Pittsburgh
27 Utah
28 Georgia Tech
29 Washington St.
30 Tulsa
31 Minnesota
32 Texas A&M
33 Iowa
34 Nebraska
35 North Carolina
36 Appalachian St.
37 San Diego St.
38 BYU
39 Boise St.
40 Temple
41 Houston
42 Georgia
43 Northwestern
44 Troy
45 Air Force
46 North Carolina St.
47 Toledo
48 Arkansas
49 Navy
50 Memphis
51 Baylor
52 Kentucky
53 Old Dominion
54 Vanderbilt
55 Ole Miss
56 Mississippi St.
57 TCU
58 New Mexico
59 California
60 Louisiana Tech
61 Wake Forest
62 Colorado St.
63 Wyoming
64 Idaho
65 Boston College
66 Indiana
67 Notre Dame
68 Arkansas St.
69 Texas
70 UCLA
71 Central Florida
72 South Carolina
73 Oregon
74 Arizona St.
75 Maryland
76 Oregon St.
77 Army
78 Ohio
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Texas Tech
81 Missouri
82 Syracuse
83 Middle Tennessee
84 Southern Miss.
85 Duke
86 Michigan St.
87 SMU
88 Northern Illinois
89 Iowa St.
90 UTSA
91 Hawaii
92 UL-Lafayette
93 Central Michigan
94 Georgia Southern
95 Arizona
96 Miami (O)
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Virginia
104 Purdue
105 Bowling Green
106 San Jose St.
107 Nevada
108 North Texas
109 East Carolina
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 Rutgers
113 UL-Monroe
114 Kent St.
115 Kansas
116 Georgia St.
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Fresno St.
127 Texas St.
128 Buffalo

 

October 18, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 7: October 20-24, 2016

A Strange Season So Far

It may not mean all that much to you, but as far as our ratings go, this has been one of the strangest NFL seasons in a long time. Our three ratings usually begin to look close to identical by the midway point of the season, because certain constants exist in football. After factoring strength of schedule, when one team consistently gains 350 total yards and gives up 280 total yards, and this team scores one point for every 12 yards gained and gives up one point for every 13 yards gained, then on a neutral field against a perfectly average NFL opponent, that team is one touchdown better, and in 100 games, that team should be expected to beat the perfectly average team about 75 times.

The above stated paragraph has been consistently accurate for a long time, basically since the NFL featured 12 teams in the 1950’s. Other parts of the game, like turnovers, special teams, and penalties affect the game to an extent, but on the whole, when a team out-gains its opponents by an average of 350 to 280 yards per game and scores a point for every 12 yards while giving up a point for every 13 yards given up, over the long haul, all the teams with these stats and that played an average schedule should average 7 points more per game than they give up. Averaging 7 points more per game than your opponents usually makes you a playoff team in any era.

This season, has been an anomaly. There are always cases where one team out-gains another by 200 yards and loses the game due to a turnover margin of -3, or some big special teams play, or even a large discrepancy in penalty yardage (think pass interference on a long pass). Then, there is a frequent case where the eventual winning team runs for 200 yards and controls possession of the game for 38 minutes while moving to a 28-point lead. Then, the eventual losing team passes for 200 yards in the last 22 minutes and loses by 14 points.

It is just six weeks, but the norms are all messed up this season. Teams that move the ball well all day are losing too many times to teams that look inept for half the game and win on data that usually does not contribute as much to the outcome as it has been contributing this year.

There is a second factor this year. Consistency has been thrown out the window. The Cincinnati Bengals look like Super Bowl contenders one week and like an expansion franchise the next. Miami gets embarrassed at home by Tennessee one week and then dominates Pittsburgh the next and sends Ben Roethlisberger to the operating table. One week, Oakland looks like the Raiders of Daryle Lamonica and Ben Davidson, and the next week they look like the Raiders of most of the last 15 years.

You have New England, Dallas, Minnesota, and Seattle as the most consistently good teams this year. Denver, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Washington have been up and down or down and up, and any of these teams could prove to be as consistent as the first four. However, the other 24 teams are like dice-rollers. One week, they roll an 8 and then hit 8 the hard way; the next week, they roll an 8 and then crap out with a 7.

This is where computer ratings are useless. Computer ratings cannot factor inconsistency. If a team is supposed to win by 10 but loses by 10, and then in the next game, they are supposed to lose by 10 and wins by 10, their rating is not going to differ much from a team that is supposed to win by 10 and does so and then loses by 10 when they are supposed to lose by 10.

You would almost need to have two different ratings for the teams–one when they are going to lay a golden egg, and one when they lay a rotten egg. An algorithm would then have to be constructed to determine whether the team would be golden or rotten. Good luck with that. There is only one way to try to make use of this knowledge–don’t invest any money on these games!

Okay, there are some very astute computer specialists and mathematical geniuses that can devise such an algorithm based on enough data to fill a small library. They can determine the chance that a team will be golden or rotten about 60 percent of the time. By further using this information to play more underdogs than favorites, they can win 5 out of 8 times (62.5%).

Believe it or not, 62.5% is enough to be banned from every respectable sports book in the world. The big-time winners must compensate others to place bets for them, because they are persona non grata with the books when they basically win 5 out of 8 times. If they bet through their confidential couriers at 6 different books for a total of $150,000 a game, and they bet on 16 games per weekend (college and pro), they are going to win 10 of the 16 games and pocket a profit near a half million dollars by the time they pay their commissions, while the books will be out more than a half million. After a quarter of a season, that’s more than two million bucks lost by the books, and they cannot have that.

We know that there are many other ways the wise guys exploit that you and us cannot use, such as playing both sides against the middle in games with wide swings in the spreads between the opening line and the lines just before kickoff.

What do the books want from you? Believe it or not, they want you to win four times out of nine and no less. If you can consistently win four times and lose five times every week, they have you hooked. You will slowly lose money every week, but you will be so close to winning that you can taste it, and you will get even next week. If you consistently win just 1 to 3 times a week, they cannot count on your betting next week unless you really have some screws loose.

They don’t even want you to go 4-5 every week. They hope that in 17 weeks of football, you will go 5-4 every third or fourth week and pocket a little profit, and that you will then go 4-5 all the other weeks. You and millions other giving them a couple hundred dollars every week make them very wealthy.

You can also make them wealthy by following our advice. So, please, lose on your own account and do not blame us. We just do this for fun. Unfortunately, we have had some moderate success in the past, and more than a few dozen of you with URLs from the State of Nevada read our Money Line articles every week believing that past success can be used to predict future results.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 108.4 106.8 109.1 108.1 65 43
Buffalo 105.4 105.4 106.3 105.7 63 43
N. Y. Jets 98.8 97.2 99.7 98.6 58 41
Miami 95.7 96.5 95.4 95.8 58 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 104.4 103.9 105.5 104.6 64 41
Cincinnati 102.2 101.7 102.4 102.1 61 41
Baltimore 97.7 99.5 97.1 98.1 61 37
Cleveland 90.1 90.8 89.8 90.2 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.3 99.4 98.1 98.6 62 37
Indianapolis 96.7 98.4 96.0 97.0 61 36
Jacksonville 95.5 97.0 94.9 95.8 59 37
Tennessee 95.3 96.8 95.0 95.7 57 39
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 106.4 104.5 106.2 105.7 63 43
Kansas City 103.0 102.5 103.6 103.0 64 39
San Diego 100.1 101.0 99.8 100.3 64 36
Oakland 97.1 98.2 97.1 97.5 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 102.7 100.7 102.1 101.8 63 39
Dallas 101.4 100.9 101.8 101.4 61 40
Washington 100.2 100.1 100.3 100.2 62 38
N.Y. Giants 98.3 98.2 98.2 98.2 62 36
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 107.8 106.5 108.3 107.5 63 45
Green Bay 102.1 101.7 101.9 101.9 63 39
Detroit 98.7 98.4 98.4 98.5 61 38
Chicago 93.3 92.0 92.8 92.7 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.2 104.6 103.8 103.8 68 36
Carolina 101.9 102.0 101.8 101.9 60 42
New Orleans 97.6 99.6 97.1 98.1 64 34
Tampa Bay 95.4 95.9 94.8 95.4 59 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 107.3 104.4 108.1 106.6 63 44
Arizona 106.8 104.7 107.4 106.3 67 39
Los Angeles 98.8 99.9 98.6 99.1 57 42
San Francisco 91.5 92.5 91.0 91.7 54 38

 

This Week’s Games
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Green Bay Chicago 11.8 12.7 12.1 44
Los Angeles (L) New York Giants 0.5 1.7 0.4 41
Cincinnati Cleveland 14.1 12.9 14.6 45
Detroit Washington 0.5 1.3 1.1 48
Jacksonville Oakland 1.4 1.8 0.8 51
Kansas City New Orleans 8.4 5.9 9.5 56
Miami Buffalo -6.7 -5.9 -7.9 41
New York Jets Baltimore 3.6 0.2 5.1 41
Philadelphia Minnesota -2.1 -2.8 -3.2 43
Tennessee Indianapolis 1.6 1.4 2.0 44
Atlanta San Diego 6.1 6.6 7.0 61
San Francisco Tampa Bay -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 39
Pittsburgh New England -4.0 -2.9 -3.6 46
Arizona Seattle 2.5 3.3 2.3 48
Denver Houston 11.1 8.1 11.1 46
(L) Game to be played in London

 

 

 

 

February 5, 2016

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks For February 6-7, 2016

Breaking News: The University of Louisville has self-imposed a ban on the postseason for this year.  This means one extra bubble team just benefitted greatly.

 

Here are this weekend’s picks from the top 6 conferences.

 

Remember:

Red= An algorithm based 100% on the Four Factors

White= An algorithm combining the Four Factors and a Least Squares formula on who beat who where and when

Blue= A 100% ratings’ based algorithm concentrating on scoring margin and strength of schedule

All ratings rounded to nearest whole number except when that number is 0.  Then, even if the rating is 1/1000 of a point different, the team 1/1000 of a point better is listed as a 1-point favorite.

Games Scheduled for: Saturday, February 6, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Pittsburgh Virginia -2 1 1
Wake Forest Florida St. -4 -5 -3
Louisville Boston College 24 26 19
Duke North Carolina St. 12 12 10
Virginia Tech Clemson 1 1 -1
Notre Dame North Carolina -3 -1 -5
TCU Kansas -10 -10 -12
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. -4 -4 1
Texas Texas Tech 7 6 8
Kansas St. Oklahoma -7 -3 -7
West Virginia Baylor 8 8 10
Xavier Marquette 15 14 12
Creighton Depaul 12 15 17
Providence Villanova -4 -2 -5
St. John’s Butler -11 -14 -8
Seton Hall Georgetown 6 16 9
Michigan Michigan St. -3 -3 -5
Nebraska Rutgers 16 17 14
Maryland Purdue 5 5 6
Penn St. Indiana -10 -24 -15
California Stanford 8 8 7
Washington Arizona -3 -2 -9
Washington St. Arizona St. -3 -5 -3
Oregon St. Colorado 2 -1 -1
Alabama Missouri 11 10 10
Kentucky Florida 6 4 7
Texas A&M South Carolina 9 7 10
Georgia Auburn 10 13 7
LSU Mississippi St. 8 9 14
Arkansas Tennessee 7 7 8
Ole Miss Vanderbilt -2 -3 2

 

Games Schedule for: Sunday, February 7 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Georgia Tech Miami (Fl.) -3 -2 -5
Illinois Iowa -13 -11 -16
Oregon Utah 11 9 12

 

December 31, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks for January 2, 2016

Welcome to year two of the experimental PiRate College Basketball Ratings.  In year one, our three ratings performed remarkably well with the Red and White ratings hitting around 77% accuracy and the Blue rating coming in at 72%.

 

Because of time constraints, we will be issuing picks of games played on Saturdays from the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and Southeastern conferences, plus some additional key games involving other teams highly-ranked.  For instance, this week, we will include the Butler-Xavier game, which just might be the game of the week.

 

Our college basketball ratings are not fluid like our football ratings.  We have to recalculate them every game as if it is a brand new rating, so to calculate every game in Division 1, we would have to recalculate upwards of 350 teams a day, and that my friends is just not possible for the small staff we have here.

 

Here is a brief explanation of how we calculate these ratings.

RED: Our Red Rating uses an algorithm based solely on basketball’s “Four Factors,” popularized by basketball metric genius Dean Oliver.  The Four Factors are: effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, rebounding percentage, and free throw rates.  Oliver stated that the outcomes of games are decided by the offensive and defensive rates of these four factors with shooting counting for 40%, turnovers 25%, rebounding 20%, and free throw rates 15%.  We have tweaked his formulas just a tad, especially the philosophy of how to count free throw rates, and we have also separated turnovers into two sub-categories: steals and all others.  We then used the great back-testing tool to find an algorithm that made a “best fit” for the data into actual point spreads.

 

WHITE: Our White Rating uses all the data from the Red Rating and then adds a “least squares” approach to fit the teams into an order of best to worst.  Because we do not plan on rating all 351 D1 teams, we only perform this for the five conferences previously mentioned plus any other teams in our weekly report.   For instance, this week, we rated the 65 teams in the ACC, B12, B10, P12, and SEC plus the 3 extra teams that we have included in this report, ranking them from #1 Kansas to #68 Boston College  We then take the Red Rating and adjust it up or down by a formula based on how much higher or lower each team is in our least squares rating.

 

BLUE: This is another statistics’- based formula relying a lot more on scoring margins and strength of schedule.  The Four Factors do not come into play in this rating.  Who you beat or lost to, and by how much is the base for this rating, but we break it down into a unique manner.  Some teams will win games by large margins when they are superior but may not be as superior overall as other teams that win more consistently buy by smaller margins.  For instance, let’s take three conference teams in a good league: Team A, Team B, and Team C.  A is the best of the three and will eventually win the conference title, while C is a rebuilding team that will finish last in the league.  B will finish in 4th place in this mythical 12-team league.  A is good enough to sweep both B and C, while B will sweep C.  You would normally expect A to beat C by more points than B beats C, but B may be that sort of team that runs the score up on teams like C, while A wins by fewer points.  If A beats C by 12 points, while B beats C by 24 points, you might get the impression that B is better than A.  This Blue rating does not automatically believe that to be the case.

 

One drawback with these formulas is that it cannot account for injuries or other personnel changes.  That is why it is still experimental.  We will not remove the experimental tag until we have a way to account for injuries.  For instance, earlier today, Xavier lost its star point guard Edmund Sumner to an injury that required his removal from the arena by a stretcher.  It is undetermined when he can return to action, and in his absence, XU goes from a Final Four contender to possibly an NIT participant if he is lost for the season.  However, in the Butler game for Saturday, his absence will not be factored into the ratings.

 

Okay, now that we have either confused you or put you to sleep, here are our opening ratings for Saturday, January 2, 2016.  Yes, get used to “2016.”  If it’s 2016, there will be a little national election, and we will supply our metric analysis to this pennant race as well.

 

Games Schedule for: Saturday, January 2, 2016      
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Clemson Florida St. -3 -4 -7
North Carolina Georgia Tech 16 12 16
Virginia Tech North Carolina St. -1 1 -2
Miami (Fla.) Syracuse 12 13 11
Boston College Duke -14 -16 -15
Virginia Notre Dame 10 10 9
Kansas St. West Virginia -4 -1 -1
Texas Tech Texas 4 7 3
Oklahoma St. TCU 6 8 7
Kansas Baylor 13 11 10
Oklahoma Iowa St. 10 7 8
Michigan Penn St. 12 10 14
Minnesota Michigan St. -11 -12 -16
Nebraska Indiana -7 -5 -3
Purdue Iowa 7 7 4
Northwestern Maryland -1 -1 -3
Auburn Tennessee 1 -1 4
Texas A&M Arkansas 10 9 12
Kentucky Ole Miss 12 14 9
Florida Georgia 9 8 4
Vanderbilt LSU 11 13 10
South Carolina Memphis 9 8 4
Xavier Butler 5 4 2

December 1, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 13: December 3-7, 2015

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
N.Y. Giants 100.7 100.6 100.9 100.7 5-6-0 287 273
Dallas 100.6 99.3 99.8 99.9 3-8-0 204 261
Philadelphia 97.4 96.8 97.4 97.2 4-7-0 243 274
Washington 96.0 95.9 96.1 96.0 5-6-0 241 267
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.1 104.3 104.5 104.6 7-4-0 262 215
Minnesota 103.2 102.4 104.4 103.3 8-3-0 231 194
Chicago 99.6 100.0 100.8 100.1 5-6-0 231 264
Detroit 99.8 98.6 98.7 99.0 4-7-0 230 288
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 108.1 108.5 109.7 108.8 11-0-0 332 205
Atlanta 97.2 96.7 96.5 96.8 6-5-0 260 234
Tampa Bay 95.8 96.3 95.6 95.9 5-6-0 248 279
New Orleans 93.1 90.9 92.3 92.1 4-7-0 261 339
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 108.1 107.6 108.7 108.1 9-2-0 355 229
Seattle 106.0 105.5 106.0 105.8 6-5-0 267 222
St. Louis 95.1 95.6 94.9 95.2 4-7-0 186 230
San Francisco 95.5 94.3 95.6 95.1 3-8-0 152 271
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.3 111.2 110.7 111.1 10-1-0 347 212
Buffalo 101.4 102.3 101.7 101.8 5-6-0 266 257
N. Y. Jets 100.6 101.1 100.4 100.7 6-5-0 272 228
Miami 96.9 97.3 96.0 96.7 4-7-0 225 287
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 106.0 107.1 107.2 106.8 9-2-0 297 193
Pittsburgh 103.6 103.4 102.9 103.3 6-5-0 266 230
Baltimore 100.5 99.5 99.8 99.9 4-7-0 259 276
Cleveland 93.0 92.1 92.4 92.5 2-9-0 213 310
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 101.5 102.1 102.1 101.9 6-5-0 249 260
Houston 99.0 100.5 100.0 99.8 6-5-0 232 234
Jacksonville 91.9 94.2 91.6 92.6 4-7-0 236 299
Tennessee 91.8 91.8 91.6 91.7 2-9-0 203 257
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 105.3 106.2 105.9 105.8 6-5-0 287 220
Denver 104.6 104.1 104.6 104.4 9-2-0 252 207
Oakland 95.6 97.8 95.6 96.3 5-6-0 264 280
San Diego 95.7 96.0 95.6 95.8 3-8-0 244 307

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 13      
Date of Games: December 3-7      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Detroit Green Bay -2.8 -3.2 -3.3
NY Giants NY Jets 0.1 -0.5 0.5
St. Louis Arizona -10.0 -9.0 -10.8
Tampa Bay Atlanta 1.1 2.1 2.6
New Orleans Carolina -12.5 -15.1 -14.9
Minnesota Seattle 0.2 -0.1 1.4
Buffalo Houston 5.4 4.8 4.7
Miami Baltimore -0.6 0.8 -0.8
Cleveland Cincinnati -11.0 -13.0 -12.8
Tennessee Jacksonville 2.4 0.1 2.5
Chicago San Francisco 7.1 8.7 8.2
San Diego Denver -5.9 -5.1 -6.0
Oakland Kansas City -6.7 -5.4 -7.3
New England Philadelphia 16.9 17.4 16.3
Pittsburgh Indianapolis 5.1 4.3 3.8
Washington Dallas -1.6 -0.4 -0.7

 

NFL Playoffs

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1 New England
2 Cincinnati
3 Denver
4 Indianapolis
5 Kansas City
6 Houston
   
NFC
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Minnesota
4 Washington
5 Green Bay
6 Seattle

 

NFL Playoff Projections

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED TEAM
1 New England
2 Denver
3 Cincinnati
4 Indianapolis
5 Kansas City
6 Pittsburgh
     
NFC SEED TEAM
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Minnesota
4 Washington
5 Green Bay
6 Seattle
     
Wildcard Playoff Round
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Seattle over Minnesota
Green Bay over Washington
 
Divisional Playoff Round
New England over Kansas City
Denver over Cincinnati
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Green Bay
 
Conference Championship Round
New England over Denver
Arizona over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over New England

 

November 17, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 10: November 19-23, 2015

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 103.1 102.5 103.1 102.9 4-5-0 212 184
N.Y. Giants 101.3 101.5 102.2 101.7 5-5-0 273 253
Dallas 101.4 99.8 100.5 100.6 2-7-0 166 214
Washington 96.7 96.5 96.5 96.6 4-5-0 205 209
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 103.8 103.0 105.1 104.0 7-2-0 198 154
Green Bay 104.5 103.4 103.4 103.8 6-3-0 219 185
Chicago 98.5 98.9 99.6 99.0 4-5-0 199 234
Detroit 97.3 95.8 96.3 96.5 2-7-0 167 261
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 105.7 106.0 106.8 106.2 9-0-0 255 175
Atlanta 98.8 98.6 98.8 98.7 6-3-0 229 190
New Orleans 94.3 92.0 94.1 93.5 4-6-0 255 315
Tampa Bay 93.0 93.7 93.1 93.3 4-5-0 191 237
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 108.4 108.2 109.7 108.8 7-2-0 302 185
Seattle 105.6 104.6 104.8 105.0 4-5-0 199 179
St. Louis 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2 4-5-0 166 183
San Francisco 95.2 93.8 95.0 94.7 3-6-0 126 223
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.8 112.1 111.9 111.9 9-0-0 303 169
Buffalo 101.1 101.9 101.2 101.4 5-4-0 231 207
N. Y. Jets 100.0 100.3 99.6 100.0 5-4-0 217 184
Miami 98.7 99.5 98.4 98.9 4-5-0 191 225
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 104.9 105.8 105.5 105.4 8-1-0 235 152
Pittsburgh 103.8 104.0 103.7 103.8 6-4-0 236 191
Baltimore 100.6 99.6 100.0 100.1 2-7-0 210 236
Cleveland 93.1 92.2 92.5 92.6 2-8-0 186 277
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 100.7 101.1 100.8 100.9 4-5-0 200 227
Houston 97.4 99.0 97.6 98.0 4-5-0 184 211
Jacksonville 92.2 95.3 92.2 93.2 3-6-0 192 255
Tennessee 92.4 92.1 92.4 92.3 2-7-0 169 214
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 104.1 103.3 103.6 103.7 7-2-0 205 168
Kansas City 102.7 103.6 103.1 103.1 4-5-0 224 195
San Diego 97.5 97.2 97.2 97.3 2-7-0 210 249
Oakland 95.5 98.1 95.3 96.3 4-5-0 227 241

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 11      
Date of Games: November 19-23      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Jacksonville Tennessee 2.8 6.2 2.8
Detroit Oakland 5.3 1.2 7.8
Atlanta Indianapolis 0.6 0.0 0.5
Houston NY Jets 0.4 1.7 1.0
Philadelphia Tampa Bay 13.1 11.8 13.0
Chicago Denver -2.6 -1.4 -1.0
Minnesota Green Bay 1.8 2.1 4.2
Baltimore St. Louis 7.7 6.0 7.0
Miami Dallas 0.3 2.7 0.9
Carolina Washington 11.5 12.0 12.8
Arizona Cincinnati 6.5 5.4 7.2
Seattle San Francisco 13.4 13.8 12.8
San Diego Kansas City -2.2 -3.4 -2.9
New England Buffalo 13.7 13.2 13.7

Playoff Standings

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1 New England
2 Cincinnati
3 Denver
4 Indianapolis
5 Pittsburgh
6 Buffalo
   
NFC
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Minnesota
4 N. Y. Giants
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta

 

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED TEAM
1 New England
2 Cincinnati
3 Denver
4 Houston
5 Pittsburgh
6 Buffalo
     
NFC SEED TEAM
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Minnesota
4 Philadelphia
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta
     
Wildcard Playoff Round
Buffalo over Denver
Pittsburgh over Houston
Minnesota over Atlanta
Philadelphia over Green Bay
 
Divisional Playoff Round
New England over Buffalo
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Carolina over Philadelphia
Minnesota over Arizona
 
Conference Championship Round
New England over Pittsburgh
Carolina over Minnesota
 
Super Bowl 50
Carolina over New England

November 15, 2015

College Football Preview: November 17-21, 2015

What Is the Difference In All These Rankings?

Every year, we receive inquiries from readers that somehow do not read everything on this site.  We know many of you have just a few precious minutes to engage in your sports reading fun, so you may never see the meaning of all our ratings.  Plus, we added a rating this year and have not explained it yet.

 

First, the PiRate Rating is our standard long-time rating that we have used for multiple decades.  It is rather easy for us to compute this rating, and because of it, we can compute ratings for all FBS and FCS teams.  Since this site is basically in existence for people to look at our spreads and compare them to the Las Vegas Spread, we do not devote much time to FCS ratings and only compile them to give you a spread when a FBS team plays a FCS team, as three FBS teams play three FCS teams this week.

 

The Mean and Bias ratings came along about 12 years ago when we began to notice changes in the way the game is played and added extra statistics to our ratings, namely yards per point, yards per play, consistency of yards gained and given up, and a few other things.  We created a sliding scale to adjust these yards to the strength of schedule, and then we weighted these extra ratings two different ways.  The Mean Ratings took all of these new factors and combined it with the original PiRate Rating and weighed them all equally to come up with a new rating.  The Bias Rating used more weight on certain data than on others, with the original PiRate Rating weighing more than all others.

 

Therefore, the PiRate and Bias Ratings will have a strong correlation, while the Mean Rating will be a lone wolf.  The Mean will tend to be a little more conservative in spread margins, and it will be a little more generous on the side of underdogs.

 

All three of these ratings are “Predictive Ratings.”  Predictive Ratings always look forward to indicate what we think the team will do in the next game it plays.  It gives little weight to what the team did 8 weeks ago, especially if the team is playing much better or much worse now than it did then.

 

The new Retrodictive Ranking is not a rating at all, and thus you get no numbers with this rankings.  The teams are simply ranked from 1 to 128 based on what they have done so far this season.  It is not used to try to predict what a team will do in the future; it is only grading them on what they have done to date.  Wins and strength of schedule is about all that matters in this rating, although the way we calculate strength of schedule may be totally different than the way other retrodictive rankings calculate strength of schedule.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.2 128.9 131.3 130.5
2 Oklahoma 128.2 125.1 129.2 127.5
3 Ohio St. 128.7 123.9 129.5 127.4
4 Baylor 126.7 122.7 126.6 125.3
5 North Carolina 122.0 122.7 122.8 122.5
6 Stanford 123.1 120.6 123.2 122.3
7 Clemson 121.8 122.8 121.9 122.2
8 Notre Dame 122.6 119.9 122.4 121.6
9 LSU 121.4 118.2 121.2 120.3
10 TCU 122.5 114.2 122.9 119.9
11 USC 121.4 117.2 120.8 119.8
12 Arkansas 121.5 116.7 121.0 119.7
13 Ole Miss 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
14 Florida 119.7 116.4 119.7 118.6
15 Utah 120.4 115.1 119.5 118.3
16 Tennessee 119.6 115.5 119.4 118.2
17 UCLA 120.6 114.5 118.9 118.0
18 Oklahoma St. 118.2 115.3 118.3 117.3
19 Michigan 117.6 114.8 117.4 116.6
20 Oregon 118.3 112.6 118.2 116.4
21 Georgia 117.8 112.2 117.2 115.7
22 Florida St. 114.9 116.2 114.5 115.2
23 Mississippi St. 115.6 112.4 115.9 114.6
24 Michigan St. 115.1 112.2 114.3 113.9
25 Auburn 115.4 112.1 114.3 113.9
26 Texas A&M 115.7 112.2 113.5 113.8
27 California 115.3 109.7 114.3 113.1
28 Houston 109.9 115.6 111.9 112.5
29 Wisconsin 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
30 Arizona St. 113.8 108.6 112.7 111.7
31 Bowling Green 108.7 113.6 111.9 111.4
32 Iowa 110.5 112.4 110.9 111.3
33 West Virginia 113.2 107.7 112.4 111.1
34 Georgia Tech 111.8 109.5 110.3 110.5
35 Virginia Tech 110.6 110.2 110.5 110.4
36 North Carolina St. 109.6 110.8 108.3 109.6
37 Washington 109.9 106.6 109.8 108.8
38 Pittsburgh 108.2 108.8 108.8 108.6
39 Washington St. 109.3 105.8 109.9 108.3
40 Nebraska 108.9 107.2 108.4 108.2
41 Boise St. 109.4 106.0 109.1 108.2
42 Louisville 107.4 109.7 107.1 108.1
43 Navy 105.9 109.7 107.0 107.5
44 Memphis 106.5 107.7 107.3 107.2
45 Missouri 108.4 105.0 107.5 107.0
46 Temple 105.8 107.9 106.5 106.7
47 Arizona 108.5 103.3 108.1 106.6
48 San Diego St. 104.5 109.0 106.2 106.6
49 Penn St. 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
50 South Carolina 108.2 104.6 106.7 106.5
51 Cincinnati 105.0 106.9 106.3 106.1
52 BYU 106.2 105.4 106.6 106.1
53 Western Kentucky 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
54 Texas Tech 107.9 99.7 107.7 105.1
55 Minnesota 105.4 104.0 104.9 104.8
56 Duke 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.5
57 Illinois 105.2 103.1 104.3 104.2
58 Toledo 103.0 104.2 104.4 103.9
59 Louisiana Tech 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
60 Northwestern 103.9 103.9 103.4 103.7
61 Colorado 105.8 101.0 104.1 103.6
62 Texas 104.7 100.9 104.5 103.4
63 Miami 103.0 103.3 103.4 103.2
64 Western Michigan 101.9 102.9 103.2 102.7
65 Kansas St. 105.3 95.5 104.3 101.7
66 Virginia 101.7 100.2 101.5 101.1
67 Vanderbilt 101.7 97.9 101.8 100.5
68 Kentucky 102.3 97.8 100.6 100.2
69 Boston College 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
70 Iowa St. 100.6 97.2 100.9 99.6
71 Georgia Southern 98.0 100.7 99.4 99.4
72 Northern Illinois 97.2 101.3 98.2 98.9
73 Marshall 98.4 99.3 98.6 98.8
74 Utah St. 98.9 99.3 98.2 98.8
75 Appalachian St. 96.9 100.2 98.9 98.7
76 South Florida 96.3 102.1 97.4 98.6
77 Air Force 96.9 101.0 97.0 98.3
78 Indiana 98.2 98.2 97.8 98.1
79 Wake Forest 95.7 98.8 95.2 96.6
80 Southern Mississippi 95.2 97.3 96.0 96.2
81 Purdue 96.6 95.7 95.4 95.9
82 Syracuse 94.4 97.0 93.9 95.1
83 Maryland 95.4 94.2 95.4 95.0
84 Arkansas St. 93.9 95.1 95.5 94.8
85 East Carolina 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
86 Central Michigan 90.9 95.0 93.1 93.0
87 Middle Tennessee 93.4 92.1 92.9 92.8
88 San Jose St. 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
89 Colorado St. 92.8 92.6 92.4 92.6
90 Tulsa 90.5 94.8 92.0 92.4
91 Rutgers 94.2 90.8 91.9 92.3
92 New Mexico 91.7 92.7 90.9 91.8
93 Connecticut 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
94 Nevada 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
95 Ohio 86.8 90.9 88.2 88.6
96 Oregon St. 90.2 86.8 88.1 88.4
97 Florida International 86.8 89.2 86.9 87.6
98 Tulane 85.2 87.8 84.4 85.8
99 Buffalo 83.2 89.1 84.9 85.7
100 Akron 83.3 89.0 84.8 85.7
101 Massachusetts 84.1 87.2 84.7 85.3
102 UNLV 83.9 85.9 84.9 84.9
103 SMU 82.7 86.3 82.0 83.7
104 Florida Atlantic 82.2 85.6 83.1 83.6
105 UL-Lafayette 82.1 84.9 82.2 83.1
106 Troy 81.9 83.4 82.9 82.7
107 Fresno St. 82.1 85.6 80.1 82.6
108 Ball St. 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
109 Army 77.9 86.3 79.4 81.2
110 Georgia St. 80.0 80.6 80.6 80.4
111 Central Florida 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
112 Rice 78.8 81.9 78.7 79.8
113 Wyoming 79.6 81.0 78.2 79.6
114 Kent St. 78.4 81.1 78.9 79.5
115 UT-San Antonio 78.5 80.8 78.6 79.3
116 Hawaii 79.0 80.7 77.9 79.2
117 South Alabama 75.9 81.9 77.2 78.3
118 Old Dominion 76.8 81.2 76.6 78.2
119 UTEP 76.6 79.3 76.1 77.3
120 Miami (O) 74.0 78.9 74.6 75.8
121 Kansas 78.2 71.8 75.9 75.3
122 Texas St. 74.2 77.0 73.9 75.0
123 North Texas 73.6 77.6 73.7 75.0
124 Idaho 72.5 77.4 73.4 74.4
125 Eastern Michigan 70.7 76.6 70.1 72.5
126 New Mexico St. 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
127 UL-Monroe 71.4 70.2 71.0 70.9
128 Charlotte 68.7 71.1 69.1 69.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Oklahoma
5 Notre Dame
6 Iowa
7 Florida
8 Oklahoma St.
9 Baylor
10 Stanford
11 TCU
12 Michigan
13 Michigan St.
14 Houston
15 North Carolina
16 LSU
17 USC
18 Utah
19 Mississippi St.
20 Navy
21 Ole Miss
22 Florida St.
23 Memphis
24 Northwestern
25 Wisconsin
26 Tennessee
27 UCLA
28 Oregon
29 Toledo
30 Texas A&M
31 Bowling Green
32 Arkansas
33 Penn St.
34 Western Kentucky
35 Washington St.
36 Georgia
37 Pittsburgh
38 California
39 Temple
40 West Virginia
41 BYU
42 Cincinnati
43 Louisville
44 Auburn
45 Miami (Fla)
46 Washington
47 Boise St.
48 Appalachian St.
49 North Carolina St.
50 Louisiana Tech
51 San Diego St.
52 Northern Illinois
53 Duke
54 Texas Tech
55 Georgia Southern
56 Arizona St.
57 Nebraska
58 Air Force
59 Illinois
60 Virginia Tech
61 Marshall
62 South Florida
63 Kansas St.
64 Minnesota
65 Arkansas St.
66 Arizona
67 Western Michigan
68 Georgia Tech
69 Central Michigan
70 Texas
71 Indiana
72 Southern Miss.
73 South Carolina
74 Connecticut
75 Iowa St.
76 Vanderbilt
77 Utah St.
78 Missouri
79 Tulsa
80 Virginia
81 Kentucky
82 Buffalo
83 Middle Tennessee
84 Maryland
85 Ohio
86 East Carolina
87 San Jose St.
88 Rutgers
89 Syracuse
90 Boston College
91 Colorado
92 New Mexico
93 Akron
94 Colorado St.
95 Nevada
96 Wake Forest
97 South Alabama
98 Purdue
99 Louisiana-Lafayette
100 Oregon St.
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Old Dominion
104 UNLV
105 Tulane
106 Ball St.
107 Rice
108 Georgia St.
109 Kent St.
110 Fresno St.
111 Kansas
112 SMU
113 Texas St.
114 UTEP
115 Idaho
116 Massachusetts
117 Florida Atlantic
118 Army
119 Hawaii
120 Miami (O)
121 UTSA
122 New Mexico St.
123 Wyoming
124 Louisiana-Monroe
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 5-1 8-2 105.8 107.9 106.5 106.7
Cincinnati 3-3 6-4 105.0 106.9 106.3 106.1
South Florida 4-2 6-4 96.3 102.1 97.4 98.6
East Carolina 2-4 4-6 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
Connecticut 3-3 5-5 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
Central Florida 0-6 0-10 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 6-0 10-0 109.9 115.6 111.9 112.5
Navy 6-0 8-1 105.9 109.7 107.0 107.5
Memphis 4-2 8-2 106.5 107.7 107.3 107.2
Tulsa 2-4 5-5 90.5 94.8 92.0 92.4
Tulane 1-5 3-7 85.2 87.8 84.4 85.8
SMU 0-6 1-9 82.7 86.3 82.0 83.7
             
AAC Averages     95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-0 10-0 121.8 122.8 121.9 122.2
Florida St. 6-2 8-2 114.9 116.2 114.5 115.2
North Carolina St. 2-4 6-4 109.6 110.8 108.3 109.6
Louisville 5-2 6-4 107.4 109.7 107.1 108.1
Boston College 0-7 3-7 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
Wake Forest 1-5 3-7 95.7 98.8 95.2 96.6
Syracuse 1-5 3-7 94.4 97.0 93.9 95.1
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 6-0 9-1 122.0 122.7 122.8 122.5
Georgia Tech 1-6 3-7 111.8 109.5 110.3 110.5
Virginia Tech 3-3 5-5 110.6 110.2 110.5 110.4
Pittsburgh 5-1 7-3 108.2 108.8 108.8 108.6
Duke 3-3 6-4 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.5
Miami 3-3 6-4 103.0 103.3 103.4 103.2
Virginia 2-4 3-7 101.7 100.2 101.5 101.1
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.3 107.2 107.7
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 6-1 9-1 128.2 125.1 129.2 127.5
Baylor 5-1 8-1 126.7 122.7 126.6 125.3
TCU 6-1 9-1 122.5 114.2 122.9 119.9
Oklahoma St. 7-0 10-0 118.2 115.3 118.3 117.3
West Virginia 2-4 5-4 113.2 107.7 112.4 111.1
Texas Tech 3-5 6-5 107.9 99.7 107.7 105.1
Texas 3-4 4-6 104.7 100.9 104.5 103.4
Kansas St. 0-6 3-6 105.3 95.5 104.3 101.7
Iowa St. 2-5 3-7 100.6 97.2 100.9 99.6
Kansas 0-7 0-10 78.2 71.8 75.9 75.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.0 110.3 108.6
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 6-0 10-0 128.7 123.9 129.5 127.4
Michigan 5-1 8-2 117.6 114.8 117.4 116.6
Michigan St. 5-1 9-1 115.1 112.2 114.3 113.9
Penn St. 4-2 7-3 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
Indiana 0-6 4-6 98.2 98.2 97.8 98.1
Maryland 0-6 2-8 95.4 94.2 95.4 95.0
Rutgers 1-6 3-7 94.2 90.8 91.9 92.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 5-1 8-2 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
Iowa 6-0 10-0 110.5 112.4 110.9 111.3
Nebraska 3-4 5-6 108.9 107.2 108.4 108.2
Minnesota 1-5 4-6 105.4 104.0 104.9 104.8
Illinois 2-4 5-5 105.2 103.1 104.3 104.2
Northwestern 4-2 8-2 103.9 103.9 103.4 103.7
Purdue 1-5 2-8 96.6 95.7 95.4 95.9
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.7 106.6 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 6-0 8-2 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
Marshall 6-1 9-2 98.4 99.3 98.6 98.8
Middle Tennessee 4-2 5-5 93.4 92.1 92.9 92.8
Florida International 3-4 5-6 86.8 89.2 86.9 87.6
Florida Atlantic 2-5 2-8 82.2 85.6 83.1 83.6
Old Dominion 3-3 5-5 76.8 81.2 76.6 78.2
Charlotte 0-7 2-8 68.7 71.1 69.1 69.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 5-1 7-3 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
Southern Mississippi 5-1 7-3 95.2 97.3 96.0 96.2
Rice 2-4 4-6 78.8 81.9 78.7 79.8
UT-San Antonio 2-4 2-8 78.5 80.8 78.6 79.3
UTEP 2-4 4-6 76.6 79.3 76.1 77.3
North Texas 1-5 1-9 73.6 77.6 73.7 75.0
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.1 86.3 86.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-1 122.6 119.9 122.4 121.6
BYU   7-3 106.2 105.4 106.6 106.1
Army   2-8 77.9 86.3 79.4 81.2
             
Independents Averages     102.2 103.9 102.8 103.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 6-0 8-2 108.7 113.6 111.9 111.4
Ohio 3-3 6-4 86.8 90.9 88.2 88.6
Buffalo 3-3 5-5 83.2 89.1 84.9 85.7
Akron 3-3 5-5 83.3 89.0 84.8 85.7
Massachusetts 1-5 2-8 84.1 87.2 84.7 85.3
Kent St. 2-4 3-7 78.4 81.1 78.9 79.5
Miami (O) 1-6 2-9 74.0 78.9 74.6 75.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-1 8-1 103.0 104.2 104.4 103.9
Western Michigan 5-1 6-4 101.9 102.9 103.2 102.7
Northern Illinois 5-1 7-3 97.2 101.3 98.2 98.9
Central Michigan 4-2 5-5 90.9 95.0 93.1 93.0
Ball St. 2-4 3-7 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
Eastern Michigan 0-7 1-10 70.7 76.6 70.1 72.5
             
MAC Averages     87.9 91.7 89.1 89.6
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-2 7-3 109.4 106.0 109.1 108.2
Utah St. 4-3 5-5 98.9 99.3 98.2 98.8
Air Force 5-1 7-3 96.9 101.0 97.0 98.3
Colorado St. 3-3 5-5 92.8 92.6 92.4 92.6
New Mexico 4-2 6-4 91.7 92.7 90.9 91.8
Wyoming 1-6 1-10 79.6 81.0 78.2 79.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-0 7-3 104.5 109.0 106.2 106.6
San Jose St. 3-3 4-6 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
Nevada 4-2 6-4 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
UNLV 2-4 3-7 83.9 85.9 84.9 84.9
Fresno St. 2-5 3-7 82.1 85.6 80.1 82.6
Hawaii 0-7 2-9 79.0 80.7 77.9 79.2
             
MWC Averages     91.6 93.4 91.3 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 7-1 8-2 123.1 120.6 123.2 122.3
Oregon 5-2 7-3 118.3 112.6 118.2 116.4
California 3-4 6-4 115.3 109.7 114.3 113.1
Washington 2-5 4-6 109.9 106.6 109.8 108.8
Washington St. 5-2 7-3 109.3 105.8 109.9 108.3
Oregon St. 0-7 2-8 90.2 86.8 88.1 88.4
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 5-2 7-3 121.4 117.2 120.8 119.8
Utah 5-2 8-2 120.4 115.1 119.5 118.3
UCLA 4-3 7-3 120.6 114.5 118.9 118.0
Arizona St. 3-4 5-5 113.8 108.6 112.7 111.7
Arizona 3-5 6-5 108.5 103.3 108.1 106.6
Colorado 1-6 4-7 105.8 101.0 104.1 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 7-1 9-1 119.7 116.4 119.7 118.6
Tennessee 3-3 6-4 119.6 115.5 119.4 118.2
Georgia 5-3 7-3 117.8 112.2 117.2 115.7
Missouri 1-5 5-5 108.4 105.0 107.5 107.0
South Carolina 1-7 3-7 108.2 104.6 106.7 106.5
Vanderbilt 2-4 4-6 101.7 97.9 101.8 100.5
Kentucky 2-6 4-6 102.3 97.8 100.6 100.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 6-1 9-1 131.2 128.9 131.3 130.5
LSU 4-2 7-2 121.4 118.2 121.2 120.3
Ole Miss 4-2 7-3 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
Arkansas 4-2 6-4 121.5 116.7 121.0 119.7
Mississippi St. 3-3 7-3 115.6 112.4 115.9 114.6
Auburn 2-5 5-5 115.4 112.1 114.3 113.9
Texas A&M 3-3 7-3 115.7 112.2 113.5 113.8
             
SEC Averages     115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 5-1 7-2 98.0 100.7 99.4 99.4
Appalachian St. 5-1 8-2 96.9 100.2 98.9 98.7
Arkansas St. 6-0 7-3 93.9 95.1 95.5 94.8
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-5 82.1 84.9 82.2 83.1
Troy 2-4 3-7 81.9 83.4 82.9 82.7
Georgia St. 2-3 3-6 80.0 80.6 80.6 80.4
South Alabama 3-2 5-4 75.9 81.9 77.2 78.3
Texas St. 1-4 2-7 74.2 77.0 73.9 75.0
Idaho 2-5 3-7 72.5 77.4 73.4 74.4
New Mexico St. 2-3 2-7 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
UL-Monroe 0-6 1-9 71.4 70.2 71.0 70.9
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.7 84.1 82.4 82.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
3 Big 12 110.6 105.0 110.3 108.6
4 ACC 107.5 108.3 107.2 107.7
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.7 106.6 106.4
6 Indep. 102.2 103.9 102.8 103.0
7 AAC 95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
8 MWC 91.6 93.4 91.3 92.1
9 MAC 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.6
10 CUSA 86.0 88.1 86.3 86.8
11 SBC 81.7 84.1 82.4 82.7

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Ohio St.
4 Notre Dame

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Houston      
2 Navy      
3 Toledo      
4 Bowling Green      
5 Western Kentucky    

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team  
10 Boston College  
9 Iowa St.  
8 Indiana  
7 Wake Forest  
6 Purdue  
5 Syracuse  
4 Maryland  
3 Rutgers  
2 Oregon St.  
1 Kansas  

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 97.4
2 McNeese St. 91.7
3 North Dakota St. 91.6
4 Dartmouth 91.6
5 Harvard 91.4
6 Dayton 91.1
7 Charleston Southern 90.4
8 South Dakota St. 90.3
9 Illinois St. 89.9
10 Coastal Carolina 89.8

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 17        
Bowling Green Toledo 8.2 11.9 10.0
Ohio Ball St. 9.4 11.3 10.2
         
Wednesday, November 18        
Kent St. Central Michigan -10.0 -11.4 -11.7
Northern Illinois Western Michigan -1.7 1.4 -2.0
         
Thursday, November 19        
Central Florida East Carolina -11.0 -11.6 -11.2
Texas St. Louisiana-Monroe 5.8 9.8 5.9
         
Friday, November 20        
South Florida Cincinnati -5.7 -1.8 -5.9
Boise St. Air Force 15.5 8.0 15.1
         
Saturday, November 21        
Iowa Purdue 16.9 19.7 18.5
Penn St. Michigan -8.1 -5.1 -8.1
Minnesota Illinois 3.2 3.9 3.6
Maryland Indiana 0.2 -1.0 0.6
Middle Tennessee North Texas 22.3 17.0 21.7
Virginia Tech North Carolina -8.4 -9.5 -9.3
Kansas St. Iowa St. 7.7 1.3 6.4
Kansas West Virginia -32.5 -33.4 -34.0
Florida Florida Atlantic 39.5 32.8 38.6
Army Rutgers -14.3 -2.5 -10.5
Temple Memphis 1.8 2.7 1.7
North Carolina St. Syracuse 18.2 16.8 17.4
Miami (Fla) Georgia Tech -6.8 -4.2 -4.9
Massachusetts Miami (O) 12.1 10.3 12.1
Georgia St. South Alabama 6.6 1.2 5.9
Florida Int’l Western Kentucky -16.3 -14.0 -17.2
BYU Fresno St. 27.1 22.8 29.5
Ohio St. Michigan St. 16.6 14.7 18.2
Oregon USC -0.1 -1.6 0.4
Utah UCLA 2.8 3.6 3.6
Wisconsin Northwestern 11.8 11.4 11.4
Connecticut Houston -18.1 -18.9 -18.9
Pittsburgh Louisville 3.8 2.1 4.7
Utah St. Nevada 12.8 9.3 12.3
UTEP Louisiana Tech -24.3 -21.8 -25.9
Arizona St. Arizona 7.3 7.3 6.6
Clemson Wake Forest 29.1 27.0 29.7
Virginia Duke -0.2 -1.8 -0.5
Akron Buffalo 2.6 2.4 2.4
Ole Miss LSU 3.8 1.7 1.9
Southern Miss. Old Dominion 21.4 19.1 22.4
Auburn Idaho 46.9 38.7 44.9
Louisiana-Lafayette New Mexico St. 13.5 14.6 13.5
New Mexico Colorado St. 1.9 3.1 1.5
Oregon St. Washington -16.7 -16.8 -18.7
Tulsa Navy -12.4 -11.9 -12.0
Arkansas Mississippi St. 8.9 7.3 8.1
Georgia Georgia Southern 21.8 13.5 19.8
UTSA Rice 2.2 1.4 2.4
Missouri Tennessee -8.2 -7.5 -8.9
Oklahoma St. Baylor -5.5 -4.4 -5.3
Vanderbilt Texas A&M -11.5 -11.8 -9.2
Kentucky Charlotte 36.6 29.7 34.5
Boston College Notre Dame -20.9 -15.4 -22.3
Oklahoma TCU 8.7 13.9 9.3
SMU Tulane -0.5 0.5 -0.4
Stanford California 9.8 12.9 10.9
UNLV San Diego St. -18.1 -20.6 -18.8
Washington St. Colorado 6.5 7.8 8.8
Hawaii San Jose St. -8.7 -9.7 -10.0
         
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 12 PiRate    
South Carolina Citadel 17    
Florida St. Chattanooga 31    
Alabama Charleston Southern 41    

 

Bowl Projections By Conference

POWER 5 CONFERENCES

ACC

Clemson has secured the Atlantic Division title, while North Carolina will win the Coastal with a win in either of its last two games (Virginia Tech & North Carolina St.) or a Pittsburgh loss in either of its last two games (Louisville & Miami).

 

As of today, the PiRates agree that North Carolina is the strongest team in the league.  We project the Tar Heels to win out and upset a 12-0 Clemson team in the ACC Championship Game, and with numerous other losses from in front of Carolina, we project the Heels in the Playoffs this week.  That could change quickly, as Virginia Tech is waiting in ambush in the mountains this week.

Already Bowl Eligible: 9 Including Notre Dame

Still Alive: 1

Virginia Tech is 5-5 with games remaining against North Carolina and Virginia

 

Big Ten

Michigan State visits Ohio State this week, and at this point in the season, we cannot see the Spartans winning at the Giant Horseshoe.  Ohio State has to finish the regular season at the Big House, and we believe Michigan will be waiting to send the Buckeyes home with black eyes.  If Michigan can win a tough road game at Penn State, the finale with their arch-rival will be for the East Division title.  At this moment, we favor the Wolverines to run the table and then really upset the league by winning the Big Ten Conference Championship Game to earn a Rose Bowl bid and not a playoff spot.

 

In the West, Iowa is 10-0 with games against Purdue and Nebraska.  The Hawkeyes should quickly dismiss the Boilermakers but the game in Lincoln is going to be very tough, especially since the Cornhuskers will enter this game coming off a bye and a two-game winning streak and needing a win to guarantee themselves a bowl bid.  Should Nebraska finish 5-7, the Cornhuskers are the first on the waiting list if there are not 80 bowl eligible teams.  With the top APR score, Nebraska would be the first 5-7 team in the pecking order.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 7

Still Alive: 4

Indiana is 4-6 with winnable games left against Maryland and Purdue.  Illinois is 5-5 with games remaining against Minnesota and Northwestern.  Nebraska is 5-6 with a game remaining against Iowa.  Minnesota is 4-6 with games remaining against Illinois and Wisconsin.

 

Big 12

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State appear to be headed to a game for all the marbles on November 28.  Baylor’s hopes died with Seth Russell’s injury, while TCU’s loss to Oklahoma State was probably enough to do the Horned Frogs in.  If the Winner of “Bedlam” wins out, that team stands a strong chance of making the playoffs.  This league should place two teams in the New Year’s Six Bowls, and we believe both Oklahoma schools will take those spots.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 5

Still Alive: 3

West Virginia is 5-4 and needs to win one of their final three games (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State).

Kansas State is 3-6 and must win out against Iowa State, Kansas, and West Virgina.

Texas is 4-6 and must win out against Texas Tech and Baylor

 

Pac-12

Stanford and Utah both lost this past weekend, and now the Pac-12 appears to be out of the playoff picture this year.  In the North, Stanford must beat California to win the division.  If  Cal wins and Oregon beats USC and Oregon State, the Ducks would claim the division title.  Washington State can tie for the division but would lose out on all possible tiebreakers.

 

The South is wide open between USC, Utah, and UCLA.  The Utes and Trojans are both 5-2, while the Bruins are 4-3.  The PiRates believe USC will lose to Oregon and beat UCLA and then take down Stanford in the conference title game to earn a trip to the Rose Bowl and give Clay Helton a very good chance to remove the interim tag from his title.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 8

Still Alive: 2

Arizona State is 5-5 and must win one more game (Arizona & California)

Washington is 4-6 and must win out (Oregon State & Washington State)

The PiRates believe that 9 teams will earn bowl bids for a league that has 7 bowl bids, meaning two teams will earn at-large bids from this league.

 

SEC

Florida sewed up the East Division title two weeks ago, and the Gators have already finished their regular season SEC slate at 7-1.  The Gators finish the regular season with home games against Florida Atlantic and Florida State, where two wins would basically make the SEC Championship Game an Elite 8 Playoff Game.

 

Alabama is a win over Auburn away from clinching the West Division title.  If Auburn pulls off the great upset, then Ole Miss can still win the West by knocking off LSU and Mississippi State.  If the Tide and Gators face off in the title game, the winner has a 100% chance of earning a playoff bid.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 9

Still Alive: 4

Auburn is 5-5 and only needs to beat Idaho this week to earn a bowl bid.  If the Vandals win, then the Tigers must beat Alabama the following week.

Missouri is 5-5 and must win one more game (Tennessee & Arkansas).

Vanderbilt is 4-6 and must win out over Texas A&M and Tennessee.

Kentucky is 4-6 and must win out over Charlotte and Louisville.

 

GROUP OF 5 CONFERENCES

American Athletic

Houston escaped with a win over Memphis this past weekend, and now the Cougars stand alone at 10-0 with Connecticut and Navy plus the AAC Championship Game in their way to earning a New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  The Cougars have a tough trio to get by here, as Connecticut is coming off a bye week and hosts the Cougars, Navy destroyed Memphis at the Liberty Bowl, and South Florida or Temple would be a tough out in the title game.

 

Navy is now the clear-cut number two team in line for the New Year’s 6 Bowl bid, and if the Middies win out, they will get that bowl bid.  Memphis and Temple played their way out of contention.

 

With USF handling Temple Saturday night, the Bulls are just a game out of first place in the East Division.  Temple closes with Memphis and Connecticut, while USF plays Cincinnati and UCF.  USF owns the tiebreaker over Temple if the teams tie.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 6

Still Alive: 3

Tulsa is 5-5 with Navy and Tulane remaining on the schedule

Connecticut is 5-5 with Houston and Temple left to play.

East Carolina is 4-6 and must beat both UCF and Cincinnati.

 

Conference USA

Western Kentucky and Marshall will close out the regular season in Bowling Green, and the winner of that game will be the East Division winner, while Louisiana Tech and Southern Mississippi will decide the West Division winner in their final regular season game.

 

Western Kentucky still has a slight chance to make it to the New Year’s 6 Bowl picture if the Hilltoppers win out, and Houston loses twice, while Navy loses once.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 4

Still Alive: 5

Middle Tennessee is 5-5 and must beat either North Texas or UTSA to be bowl eligible.

Old Dominion is 5-5 and must beat either Southern Miss. or Florida Atlantic to be bowl eligible.

Florida International is 5-6 and must beat Western Kentucky to become bowl eligible.

UTEP is 4-6 and must sweep Louisiana Tech and North Texas.

Rice is 4-6 and must sweep UTSA and Charlotte.

 

Independents

Notre Dame is included in the ACC section.  BYU is already bowl eligible and will appear in either the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl.  Army is eliminated from contention this year, and their Poinsettia Bowl bid will likely go to a Pac-12 team as an at-large invitation.

 

Mid-American 

The East is a done deal.  Bowling Green is the division winner and has a small chance of sneaking into the New Year’s 6 Bowl picture.

 

The West is still very much up for grabs between Toledo, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois.

 

We project eight teams to be bowl eligible, and because we only see 80 bowl eligible teams for 80 berths, all eight MAC teams will earn bowl bids.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 5

Still Alive: 3

Central Michigan is 5-5 and needs one more win (Kent State and Eastern Michigan)

Akron is 5-5 and needs one more win (Buffalo and Kent State)

Buffalo is 5-5 and needs one more win (Akron and Massachusetts)

 

Mountain West

San Diego State wrapped up the West Division flag and appears to be the heavy favorite for winning the MWC Championship Game regardless of their opponent.

In the Mountain Division, three teams are still in contention.  With New Mexico winning at Boise State, the Lobos are now a surprise contender in the division and would take the title with home wins over Colorado State and Air Force.  Air Force has the lead at the moment, but the Falcons must finish the regular season at Boise State and at New Mexico.  As for Boise State, the Broncos do not control their own destiny.  BSU finishes with Air Force and San Jose State, and they would need for New Mexico to lose in order to win the division.   There are remote possibilities where Utah State or Colorado State could still win the division, but too many things would have to occur.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 5

Still Alive: 3

Utah State is 5-5 and must beat either Nevada or BYU to become bowl eligible.

Colorado State is 5-5 and must beat either New Mexico or Fresno St. to become bowl eligible.

San Jose State is 4-6 and must beat both Hawaii and Boise State to become bowl eligible.

 

Sun Belt

Arkansas State has the lead by a game over both Appalachian State and Georgia Southern, and the Red Wolves close the season with New Mexico State and Texas State, so they should win the SBC title at 8-0 in conference play.  Arkansas State has to lose both for either Appy State or GSU to take the league crown.  All three will go to bowls, and as many as five teams could find their way into a bowl.

 

Already Bowl Eligible: 3

Still Alive: 3

South Alabama is 5-4 and needs one win in their final three games (Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Appy St.).

Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-5 and must win two of their final three games (New Mexico St., Appalachian St., & Troy).

Georgia State is 3-6 and must win their final three games (South Alabama, Troy, & Georgia Southern).

 

Complete Bowl Projections

 

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC South Florida vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Old Dominion
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Utah vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Appalachian St. * vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army San Jose St. vs. California *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Temple vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Washington St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Western Michigan * vs. Rice
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Utah St. * vs. Miami (Fla)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nevada * vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Virginia Tech vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Arizona * vs. Buffalo *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Central Michigan * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Baylor
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Colorado St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. vs. Ole Miss
Music City ACC/B10 SEC Penn St. vs. Arkansas
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Ohio St.
Cotton Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. North Carolina
Orange Playoff Playoff Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Oregon
Ouback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Georgia
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. USC
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/B10 SEC Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. LSU
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Stanford
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

November 9, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 10: November 13-17, 2015

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 104.0 103.4 104.5 104.0 4-4-0 193 164
Dallas 102.7 101.1 102.2 102.0 2-6-0 160 204
N.Y. Giants 100.6 100.6 101.1 100.8 5-4-0 247 226
Washington 94.7 94.5 94.5 94.6 3-5-0 158 195
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.9 105.1 105.3 105.4 6-2-0 203 167
Minnesota 102.2 100.7 103.1 102.0 6-2-0 168 140
Chicago 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7 3-5-0 162 221
Detroit 96.2 94.4 94.7 95.1 1-7-0 149 245
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 104.9 105.1 105.8 105.3 8-0-0 228 165
Atlanta 98.8 98.6 98.8 98.7 6-3-0 229 190
New Orleans 97.3 95.0 97.1 96.5 4-5-0 241 268
Tampa Bay 91.7 92.4 91.4 91.8 3-5-0 181 231
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 107.2 106.8 108.1 107.4 6-2-0 263 153
Seattle 106.5 105.7 106.1 106.1 4-4-0 167 140
St. Louis 98.7 99.7 99.3 99.2 4-4-0 153 146
San Francisco 95.2 93.8 95.0 94.7 3-6-0 126 223
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 112.5 113.0 113.0 112.8 8-0-0 276 143
Buffalo 100.6 101.2 100.1 100.6 4-4-0 209 190
N. Y. Jets 100.3 100.8 100.5 100.5 5-3-0 200 162
Miami 97.8 98.6 97.0 97.8 3-5-0 171 206