The Mountain West Conference is the only Group of 5 league that didn’t have realignment issues in the past 12 months. Rumors abound that Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State could be on the radar screen with either the Pac-12 or Big 12 Conferences, but those are just rumors for now.
The MWC has enjoyed quite a bit of success in the last decade. Last year, eight MWC teams earned bowl bids. Two of the bowl games were cancelled due to Covid, but in the six bowl games played, MWC teams went 5-1. In the history of this league, MWC teams have won 57% of their bowl games. Only the SEC and the Sun Belt have better bowl game winning percentages in that time.
2022 should be another banner year for the league. Three teams have a chance to compete for the lone New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid.
Mountain West PiRate Ratings
Mountain Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Boise St.
106.0
104.9
106.9
105.9
Air Force
100.9
100.8
102.3
101.3
Utah St.
95.4
95.8
96.6
95.9
Colorado St.
88.5
89.8
89.0
89.1
Wyoming
83.9
86.6
85.0
85.2
New Mexico
80.3
81.0
79.0
80.1
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Fresno St.
103.2
102.5
104.5
103.4
San Diego St.
97.4
97.4
97.8
97.6
Nevada
87.0
89.1
86.8
87.6
U N L V
88.4
85.9
88.0
87.5
San Jose St.
86.8
87.2
87.9
87.3
Hawaii
78.5
80.0
79.3
79.2
MWC
91.4
91.7
91.9
91.7
Mountain West Preseason Media Poll
Votes
#
Mountain
1st Place
Overall
1
Boise St.
14
151
2
Air Force
10
136
3
Utah St.
3
122
4
Colorado St.
1
90
5
Wyoming
0
60
6
New Mexico
0
29
#
West
1st Place
Overall
1
Fresno St.
20
160
2
San Diego St.
8
148
3
San Jose St.
0
105
4
Nevada
0
66
5
UNLV
0
58
6
Hawaii
0
51
The PiRate Rating are designed to be used for the next week of football games and not meant to be used to predict won-loss records. Nevertheless, here are the projected won-loss records.
Coming later today: Our fourth annual Top 20 Coaches Ready For Prime Time. You will see some familiar names, but you are going to see some names you may not know, including one coach from the Division 2 ranks.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 19, 2022
The PiRates have been busy these last 12 hours rearranging the seed lines and replacing unfortunate at-large teams that were bumped twice yesterday, as Georgetown and Oregon State crashed the Dance party with impressive wins.
Five games remain to be played before the regular season comes to an end, and all five games could affect the final seed lines:
In the first game today, if Colgate beats Loyola of Maryland, the Raiders could move up one line, but the bigger possibility is the movement of more than a dozen seeds if Loyola pulls the upset. Colgate figures to be a 13 or 14 seed, but Loyola would be a 16 seed with a win. Colgate is somewhat of another issue, because the Raiders are a Top 10 team according to the NET Ratings, but they did so by facing no serious competition from top 100 teams. We believe the Committee will overrule their own criteria and send Colgate down the seed line.
In game two, St. Bonaventure faces VCU for the Atlantic 10 Championship. We believe both teams are locks to get into the Dance, but the winner and loser could be one seed apart. Or, the Committee might decide that this game doesn’t really matter and keep the two teams where they have them today. This is highly likely, and we are using that belief in our second to last seeding prediction. The Committee will be faced with an afternoon headache, where many teams will have to be shifted to accommodate a potential bid-thief. In fact, they will have two different brackets and keep one depending on what happens later in the day.
LSU and Alabama face off in what brings up memories of the Game of the Year in football, but this is the SEC Basketball Championship Game. Alabama has a sliver of hope to move to the 1-seed line with an impressive win and an Illinois loss in the Big Ten, but we believe they are probably locked in at the 2-seed line. However, should LSU pull off the upset, the Tigers might move up one line and knock somebody back a line.
The big mover and shaker game is the American Athletic Conference Championship Game this afternoon. Cincinnati could steal a bid away with an upset of Houston, and at the same time knock the Cougars down a spot in the seedings. If Houston wins, then everything is copacetic.
Because it will be the last game of the day, and both teams are rather secure in their destinies, we believe the Big Ten Conference Championship Game will be meaningless toward the final seedings. Illinois has done the work to earn a 1-seed, while Ohio State has worked their way back to a 2-seed. The Committee will not have time to alter their brackets at this point, so they will choose to ignore this game.
The important news then is who are the teams on the Bubble? Rather than announce 68 teams like in other years, the Committee will announce 72 teams, the regular 68 plus four alternates in case teams like Virginia and Kansas cannot field rosters for the tournament.
As we see it this morning, Drake is the last team in the field, currently an 11-seed looking at a First Four game against possibly UCLA. Should Cincinnati upset Houston today, the Bearcats would be looking at a 12 or 13-seed, and Drake would be dropped to the alternate pool, while Boise St. or Saint Louis would be dropped from the alternate pool to the NIT. Other teams just on the thin line include Utah State and Syracuse, two teams we show in the First Four, and Wichita State and Colorado State, two teams we show in the alternate list.
The First Four seedings moved from 12 to 11 last night when Georgetown and Oregon State kicked through the Dance hall door. The Hoyas and Beavers cannot be 11 seeds. We slotted them both on the 12-seed line, but we are not totally convinced yet that they will remain there. Doing a little research, the last time a power conference team with a similar record crashed the party like this, Georgia earned a 14-seed. Because teams like Colgate, Winthrop, UNCG, and UCSB are capable of moving up a line, there is a chance for chaos if Cincinnati wins today, because the Bearcats are not deserving of a 12-seed and maybe not even a 13-seed.
Here is how our field looks this morning with Cincinnati not in the Tournament.
Date
3/14/2021
Morning Edition
Seed
Team
Team
Team
Team
Team
Team
1
Gonzaga
Baylor
Illinois
Michigan
2
Ohio St.
Alabama
Iowa
Houston
3
Oklahoma St.
Arkansas
Kansas
Texas
4
West Virginia
Purdue
Florida St.
Virginia
5
Tennessee
Villanova
Creighton
USC
6
Colorado
Texas Tech
LSU
Missouri
7
BYU
Oklahoma
Oregon
Connecticut
8
Clemson
San Diego St.
Wisconsin
Florida
9
Virginia Tech
Loyola (Chi.)
Rutgers
North Carolina
10
Georgia Tech
St. Bonaventure
Maryland
VCU
11
Louisville
Michigan St.
UCLA
Syracuse
Utah St.
Drake
12
Oregon St.
Georgetown
UCSB
Winthrop
13
Ohio U
Liberty
UNCG
North Texas
14
Colgate
Morehead St.
Abilene Christian
E. Washington
15
Cleveland St.
Drexel
Grand Canyon
Iona
16
Oral Roberts
Hartford
Norfolk St.
Mount St. Mary’s
Texas Southern
Appalachian St.
Four Alternates
69
Wichita St.
70
Colorado St.
71
Saint Louis
72
Boise St.
Note: We have already begun putting our
Bracketnomics Data into a spreadsheet, and we will
have it completed late tonight. We will then spend
Monday looking at the data and be ready to reveal
our opinions on the field on Tuesday. Look for our
annually most read post to publish
Tuesday afternoon, approximately 3 PM Eastern
Daylight Time, giving you plenty of time to read and
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