The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 3, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 3, 2019

Games Scheduled for:

Sunday

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Charlotte

91.7

2.5

UTEP

93.3

0.9

Connecticut

105.5

3.0

South Florida

103.4

5.1

DePaul

103.9

2.5

St. John’s

108.6

-2.2

Florida Int’l.

96.9

2.5

Louisiana Tech

101.7

-2.3

Georgia Tech

103.9

3.0

Boston College

104.8

2.1

Illinois

106.9

2.0

Northwestern

106.7

2.2

Louisiana

100.0

2.5

Appalachian St.

97.7

4.8

Louisville

113.5

3.0

Notre Dame

105.9

10.6

Marist

95.5

2.5

Rider

98.6

-0.6

Marquette

113.5

3.0

Creighton

109.5

7.0

Maryland

113.4

3.0

Michgan

117.8

-1.4

Niagara

92.2

2.5

Siena

95.3

-0.6

North Texas

101.6

3.0

Marshall

98.7

5.9

Oregon St.

106.2

3.0

Arizona St.

108.0

1.2

Quinnipiac

96.9

2.5

Manhattan

90.5

8.9

Rice

94.4

2.5

Middle Tennessee

94.9

2.0

Saint Peter’s

92.1

2.0

Fairfield

93.4

0.7

SMU

104.3

3.0

Wichita St.

104.3

3.0

Stanford

104.5

2.5

Washington

110.2

-3.2

Temple

106.8

3.0

Tulane

92.3

17.5

Tulsa

103.0

3.0

East Carolina

93.6

12.4

UTSA

100.1

2.5

UAB

99.7

2.9

Western Kentucky

103.3

3.0

Southern Miss.

102.2

4.1

 

Updated Conference Tournament Brackets

The Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament commences Monday night with four quarterfinal games.  In all, 11 conference brackets are now set and will begin play in the next week.  Here in order by the date these tournaments begin, are the 11 brackets.

Atlantic Sun Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Monday, March 4

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Lipscomb (23-6)

8

Kennesaw St. (6-25)

2

Liberty (25-6)

7

Jacksonville (12-19)

3

North Florida (15-16)

6

North Alabama (10-21)

4

Florida Gulf Coast (14-17)

5

NJIT (20-11)

Semifinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8

Higher Seed

4/5

Lower Seed

2/7

Higher Seed

3/6

Lower Seed

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8/4/5

Higher Seed

2/3/6/7

Lower Seed

 

Big South Conference

Site: Home and #1 Seed

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

Presbyterian (17-14)

10

UNC-Asheville (4-26)

6

Charleston Southern (15-14)

11

USC Upstate (6-25)

8

Hampton (14-15)

9

Longwood (15-16)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7 (at Campbell)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Radford (20-10)

7/10

Presbyterian/UNC-Asheville

3

Winthrop (18-11)

6/11

Chas Sou./USC Upstate

1

Campbell (19-11)

8/9

Hampton/Longwood

4

Gardner-Webb (20-11)

5

High Point (16-14)

Semifinals–Thursday, March 8 (at Campbell)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

2/7/10

3/6/11

1/8/9

4/5

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Higher Seeded Team)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Site: Higher Seed and Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 & Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1

Wright St. (19-12)

8

IUPUI (16-15)

4

Green Bay (16-15)

5

Illinois-Chicago (16-15)

3

Oakland (15-16)

6

Youngstown St. (12-19)

2

Northern Kentucky (23-8)

7

Detroit (11-19)

Semifinals–Friday, March 15 (Detroit for last two rounds)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8

Wright St./IUPUI

4/5

Green Bay/Illinois-Chi.

2/7

N Kentucky/Detroit

3/6

Oakland/Youngstown St.

Championship Game–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

First Round–Tuesday, March 5

Seed

Home

Visitors

8

Boston U (14-17)

9

Loyola (MD) (11-20)

7

Lafayette (10-19)

10

Holy Cross (15-16)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Colgate (21-10)

8/9

Boston/Loyola (MD)

2

Bucknell (19-10)

7/10

Lafayette/Holy Cross

3

Lehigh (19-10)

6

Army (13-18)

4

American (15-14)

5

Navy (11-18)

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8/9

Higher Seed

4/5

Lower Seed

2/7/10

Higher Seed

3/6

Lower Seed

Championship Game–Wednesday, March 13

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Higher Semifinal Winner

Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

St. Francis (PA) (16-13)

8

Bryant (10-19)

2

Fairleigh-Dickinson (17-13)

7

Wagner (13-16)

3

Sacred Heart (15-16)

6

Long Island (15-15)

4

Robert Morris (16-15)

5

St. Francis (Bklyn) (17-14)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Highest Remaining Seed

Lowest Remaining Seed

2nd Highest Remaining Seed

3rd Highest Remaining Seed

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Higher Semifinal Winner

Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

First Round–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Morehead St. (12-19)

8

SIU Edwardsville (10-20)

6

Eastern Illinois (14-17)

7

UT-Martin (11-18)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

4

Austin Peay (21-10)

5/8

Morehead/SIU-Edwardsville

3

Jacksonville St. (23-8)

6/7

E. Illinois/UT-Martin

Semifinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Belmont (25-4)

4/5/8

APSU/Mhead/SIUE

2

Murray St. (25-4)

3/6/7

JvilleSt/EIU/UTM

Championship Game–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)

Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

First Round–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Indiana St. (15-15)

9

Valparaiso (14-17)

7

Illinois St. (16-15)

10

Evansville (11-20)

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Loyola (Chi) (19-12)

8/9

Ind St./Valpo

4

Missouri St. (16-15)

5

Bradley (17-14)

2

Drake (23-8)

7/10

Ill St./Evansville

3

Southern Illinois (17-14)

6

Northern Iowa (14-17)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Loyola/Ind St./Valpo

4/5

MSU/Bradley

2/7/10

Drake/Ill St/Evans

3/6

SIU/UNI

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

West Coast Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

San Diego (18-13)

10

Portland (7-24)

8

Pepperdine (13-17)

9

Pacific (14-17)

Second Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

6

Santa Clara (16-14)

7/10

USD/Portland

5

Loyola Marymount (20-10)

8/9

Pepper/Pacific

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

BYU (19-12)

6/7/10

SCU/USD/Portland

4

San Francisco (21-9)

5/8/9

LMU/Pepper/Pacific

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Saint Mary’s (20-11)

3/6/7/10

BYU/SCU/USD/Portland

1

Gonzaga (29-2)

4/5/8/9

USF/LMU/Pepper/Pacific

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Southern Conference

Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC

First Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

VMI (10-20)

9

Western Carolina (7-24)

7

Samford (16-15)

10

The Citadel (12-17)

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Wofford (26-4)

8/9

VMI/Western Carolina

4

East Tennessee St. (23-8)

5

Chattanooga (12-19)

2

UNC Greensboro (26-5)

7/10

Samford/Citadel

3

Furman (24-6)

6

Mercer (11-19)

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Woff/VMI/WCU

4/5

ETSU/Chatt

2/7/10

UNCG/Sam/Cit

3/6

Furman/Mercer

Championship Game–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Colonial Athletic Association

Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC

First Round–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

James Madison (13-18)

9

Towson (10-21)

7

Elon (11-20)

10

UNC Wilmington (9-22)

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Hofstra (25-6)

8/9

JMU/Towson

4

William & Mary (14-16)

5

Delaware (16-15)

2

Northeastern (20-10)

7/10

Elon/UNCW

3

Charleston (23-8)

6

Drexel (13-18)

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Hofstra/JMU/Towson

4/5

Wm&Mary/Delaware

2/7/10

NEastern/Elon/UNCW

3/6

Charleston/Drexel

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Summit League

Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9 & Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1 (sat)

South Dakota St. (24-7)

8

Western Illinois (9-20)

4 (sun)

Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)

5

South Dakota (13-16)

3 (sun)

North Dakota St. (15-15)

6

Oral Roberts (11-20)

2 (sat)

Omaha (19-10)

7

North Dakota (12-17)

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8

SDSU/WIU

4/5

PFW/USD

2/7

Omaha/UND

3/6

NDSUORU

Championship Game–Tuesday, March12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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March 4, 2011

This Week’s Bracketological Look At The NCAA Basketball Conference Races

Very Few Bubble Spots Left

 

With conference tournament play underway, not much has changed yet in the NCAA Tournament picture.  At least two dozen teams remain on a bubble that may have room to admit nine of those teams at the most.  With every multiple bid conference tournament that produces an upset winner, one more bubble will burst.

 

As we see it today, 16 conferences will definitely send just one team to the NCAA Tournament.  Six other leagues have a chance to send two teams, but they could send just one team if the favorite wins their tournament or loses in an early round and gets eliminated.  That brings the subtotal to 22 definite bids.

 

We believe 37 teams have already met the minimum requirement to receive a bid to the tournament no matter how they perform in their conference tournament.  The subtotal now numbers 59.

 

That leaves just nine spots left, and up to six of those could go to those leagues mentioned above that could send a second team.  The bubble has a very thin skin.

 

Let’s take a conference-by-conference look at the prospects and suspects.

 

Definite One Bid Leagues

These leagues will send only their automatic qualifier to the Big Dance.  The team we list here have not earned a spot, since no conference tournament championships have been played.  That will change in 24 hours.

 

America East

Vermont 22-7

 

Atlantic Sun

Belmont 28-4

 

Big Sky

Northern Colorado 19-10

 

Big South

Coastal Carolina 28-4

 

Big West

Long Beach State 20-10

 

M A A C

Fairfield 23-6

 

M A C

Kent State 20-10

 

M E A C

Hampton 21-8

 

Northeast

Long Island 25-5

 

Ohio Valley

Murray State 23-7

 

Patriot League

Bucknell 23-8

 

Southern

College of Charleston 22-9

 

Southland

Stephen F. Austin 18-9

 

S W A C

Texas Southern 17-11

 

Summit

Oakland 22-9

 

Sunbelt

Florida Atlantic 21-9

 

Possible Two Bid Leagues If Favorite Loses In Final Round

These conferences have a chance to send a second team if the favorite is upset in the championship game.  If the favorite wins the automatic bid, that conference will send just one team.

 

Conference USA

U A B  21-7

 

UTEP 22-8, Southern Miss. 21-8, and Memphis 21-9 probably do not have the resumes to earn an at-large bid, but if any of these win the tournament, UAB could and probably will earn an at-large spot.  We will place allot one bubble spot for these three teams, because two will not get a spot.

 

Horizon League

Butler 21-9

 

Cleveland State 25-7 is close to becoming a bubble team, but we believe the Vikings must win the tournament.  Butler has the credentials to get in if they lose in the finals or to CSU in the semifinals, but the Bulldogs better plan on winning the league tournament, because they are vulnerable if there are two or three upsets in other tournaments.

 

Ivy League

Regular Season Champion

 

Either Harvard 21-5 or Princeton 22-5 will win the Ivy this year.  Currently, Princeton leads Harvard by half a game (10-1 to 10-2).  Princeton finishes out the season with three road games.  The Tigers play at Dartmouth tonight and at Harvard tomorrow night.  They finish at Penn on Tuesday.  Harvard hosts Penn tonight and Princeton tomorrow night.  There is a good chance that both contenders will finish 12-2, forcing a playoff game later in the week.  If Harvard loses a playoff, they would be 23-6.  Princeton would be 24-6 if they lost the playoff.  Both teams have RPIs in the 40’s, so there is a small chance that both teams could receive bids.

 

Missouri Valley

Missouri State 23-7

 

Wichita State 23-7 had a chance to wrap up a safe position, but the Shockers lost in the Bracketbuster.  This league laid an egg in the Bracketbuster and watched the Colonial take over the title of best mid-major.  Still, if somebody other than Missouri State wins the tournament, the Valley could send a second team.

 

West Coast

St. Mary’s 23-7

 

Gonzaga 22-9 has played a relatively tough schedule and owns wins over a couple of top 50 teams, but we do not believe the Bulldogs are in line for an at-large bid.  We will anoint them as conference tournament favorites, and if the Zags beat SMU in the championship game, the Gaels should be in decent shape for an at-large bid.

 

W A C

Utah State 27-3 is ranked in the Top 25 and has an RPI of 18.  The Aggies are going dancing even if they lose in the WAC Tournament.  

 

Teams That Are Locks

These teams are going to the Big Dance even if they lose the rest of their regular season games.

 

A C C

Duke 27-3

North Carolina 23-6

Florida State 20-9

 

Atlantic 10

Xavier 23-6

Temple 23-6

Richmond 23-7

 

Big East

Pittsburgh 26-4

Notre Dame 24-5

Louisville 23-7

Syracuse 24-6

St. John’s 19-10

West Virginia 19-10

Cincinnati 23-7

Georgetown 21-8

Connecticut 21-8

Villanova 21-9

 

Big Ten

Ohio State 28-2

Purdue 25-5

Wisconsin 23-6

 

Big 12

Kansas 28-2

Texas 24-6

Texas A&M 22-7

Kansas State 21-9

Missouri 22-8

 

Colonial

George Mason 25-5

Old Dominion 24-6

 

Mountain West

B Y U 27-3

San Diego State 28-2

U N L V 22-7

 

Pac-10

Arizona 24-6

U C L A 21-9

Washington 20-9

 

S E C

Florida 23-6

Kentucky 21-8

Vanderbilt 21-8

Georgia 20-9

Tennessee 18-12

 

Das Bubble

If a team has an asterisk (*) after its name, then we feel they are on the top side of the bubble.  If a team has an “x” after its name, then we feel they are on the bottom of the bubble and need to win some big games to have any chance.

 

As of today, as many as nine bubble teams could earn a bid.

 

A C C

Virginia Tech 19-9

Clemson 19-10 *

Boston College 18-11 *

 

Clemson takes on Virginia Tech Saturday, and the winner will enter the ACC Tournament as a definite high bubble team.  We believe two of these three teams will get a bid.

 

Atlantic 10

Duquesne 18-10 x (100 RPI)

Dayton 19-11 x (81 RPI)

 

These teams have played themselves out of serious contention for an at-large bid.  If either gets hot and wins their season finale and then loses in the conference championship game, then that team could be back on the bubble.  Duquesne closes at Richmond, and a win there would mean a lot.  Dayton finishes at George Washington, which would be a quality win but not as impressive as a DU win at Richmond.

 

Big East

Marquette 18-12 *

 

Marquette may be at the top of the bubble.  The Big East Tournament will be stronger than some of the NCAA regionals, and it may only take one tournament win to get them in the field.

 

Big Ten

Michigan State 17-12

Illinois 18-12

Michigan 18-12

 

The Spartans venture to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines Saturday, and the winner will enter the Big Ten tournament near the top of the bubble.

 

Illinois hosts Indiana tomorrow, and this is a must-win game for the Illini.  We believe they will have to make it to the semifinal round in the conference tournament to be on the good side of the bubble.

 

Big 12

Baylor 18-11

Nebraska 19-10 x

Colorado 18-12

 

Baylor, 6-8 since starting 12-3, hosts Texas tomorrow, and the Bears must win that one and then at least two in the Big 12 Tournament.  If they lose to the Longhorns, then BU will have to win the automatic bid.

 

Nebraska plays at Colorado tomorrow.  Even if the Cornhuskers win to sweep the Buffalos, they may have to win the conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.

 

Colorado is 4-8 in their last 12 after starting 14-4.  They will have to beat Nebraska and then win at least three in the conference tournament to have any chance at an at-large bid.  

 

Colonial

Drexel 20-9 x  61 RPI

Virginia Commonwealth 21-10 x  62 RPI

Hofstra 20-10 x  78 RPI

 

Conference USA

U T E P  22-8 x

Memphis 21-9 *

Southern Miss 21-8 *

 

We believe that one of these three teams will play their way into an at-large bid if they do not win the automatic bid.  

 

Horizon

Cleveland State 25-7

 

As we mentioned above, Cleveland State is on the bubble and could possibly receive an at-large bid if they upset Butler in the conference tournament semifinals but fail to win the championship.

 

Ivy League

Runner-up

 

If Harvard and Princeton both finish 12-2 in the league and face off in a playoff for the Ivy League championship, we believe the loser will still have an outside shot at receiving an at-large bid.

 

Pac-10

Washington State 19-10

The Cougars have a shot at grabbing an at-large bid if they beat UCLA to end the regular season and win a game in the conference tournament.  Two wins in the Pac-10 tourney would move them to the plus side of the bubble.

 

S E C

Alabama 19-10

 

The Crimson Tide must beat Georgia tomorrow and then get to the Final round of the SEC Tournament to have a shot at an at-large bid.

 

Visit this site after Midnight Eastern Time Friday, March 4/Saturday March 5 for an update on the conference tournaments and a preview of two more tournaments commencing on Satuday.

February 25, 2011

This Week’s Bracketological Look At The NCAA Basketball Conference Races

80 Teams Vying For 68 Spots Before Conference Upsets Upset The Apple Cart

 

As we approach the eve of the first conference tournaments, we here at the PiRate Ratings have crunched the numbers and come to a consensus on 80 total teams that are either locks to get into the Big Dance, just one or two wins away, on the bubble, or in the conversation for a possible at-large bid from a smaller conference.

 

Of course, there will be some conference tournament upsets, and with each upset, one bubble will burst.

 

Today, as we break down each category, we will focus on the bubble teams plus three special cases from smaller conferences.  Unlike other sites, we factor in what we perceive to be back-room politics into our equation.  A team like Kentucky in an off-year will still always receive preferential treatment over a team like Cleveland State or Southern Mississippi, and the committee can always reverse engineer enough data to support their decision.

 

Absolute Locks—These 25 Teams Are In The Dance

Figures shown are conference and overall record, RPI, and strength of schedule

When two teams have the same RPI, they are tied

TEAM                         Record                      RPI      SOS

Duke                           12-1/26-2                       5        33

North Carolina            11-2/21-6                     12        15

Xavier                         12-1/21-6                     24        47

Temple                        11-2/21-6                     32        79

Pittsburgh                    13-2/25-3                       6        25

Notre Dame                11-4/22-5                     10        31

Louisville                    10-5/21-7                     23        23

St. John’s                    10-5/18-9                     15          4

Syracuse                      10-6/23-6                     17        24

Georgetown                10-6/21-7                       7          2

Villanova                       9-6/21-7                     27        35

Connecticut                   8-7/20-7                     19        12

Ohio State                   13-2/26-2                       2        26

Purdue                         12-3/23-5                     23        18

Wisconsin                    11-4/21-6                     13        29

Texas                           12-1/24-4                       9        20

Kansas                         11-2/26-2                       1        13

Texas A&M                  9-4/22-5                     29        53

Missouri                        8-5/22-6                     30        68

San Diego State          12-1/27-1                       4        38

B Y U                         12-1/26-2                       3        22

Arizona                       12-3/23-5                     14        48

Florida                         11-2/22-5                     11          9

Kentucky                      7-6/19-8                     16        17

Vanderbilt                     8-5/20-7                     22        19

 

Near Locks—These 12 Teams Need One Or Two More Wins To Be In The Dance

TEAM                         Record                       RPI      SOS

Florida State               9-4/22-5                       51        100

Cincinnati                    9-6/22-6                       35          88

West Virginia              8-7/17-10                     20           3

Kansas State               7-6/19-9                       28            7

Michigan State            8-7/16-11                     37            5

Missouri State             14-3/22-7                     46        138

Wichita State              14-3/23-6                     47        108

U N L V                      9-5/21-7                       25          28

Washington                 10-5/19-8                     36          63

U C L A                      11-4/20-8                     38          50

Tennessee                    7-6/17-11                     31            1

Utah State                   12-1/25-3                     18        111

 

3 Teams That Could Get In The Conversation From A Non-Power Conference

(If they win out in the regular season and then lose in their conference tournament finals)

 

TEAM                         Record                       RPI      SOS

Belmont                      18-1/26-4                     50        237

Oakland                      16-1/21-9                     58        132

Ivy League 2nd Place

   Harvard                    9-1/20-4                       42        176

   Princeton                  8-1/20-5                       55        195

 

14 Conferences That Will Send Only Their Automatic Bid Champion

Conference                              Top Team                    Won-Loss

America East                           Vermont                        13-2/22-6                  

Big Sky                                   Montana                        12-3/20-8

Big South                                Coastal Carolina            15-2/25-4

Big West                                 Long Beach State       12-2/18-10

M A A C                                 Fairfield                        14-2/22-5

M A C                                     Kent State                     10-3/19-9

Northeast                                Long Island                   15-2/23-5

Ohio Valley                             Murray State                 13-4/22-7

Patriot                                     Bucknell                        12-1/21-8

Southern                                  College of Charleston   14-3/22-8

Southland                                McNeese State                9-4/17-9

S W A C                                 Texas Southern           13-1/15-10 

Sunbelt                                    Florida Atlantic             12-3/20-9

 

26  Teams On The Bubble (absolutely must win the big games and not be upset)

TEAM                         Record                        RPI      SOS

Virginia Tech              8-5/18-8                       63        109                                         

Clemson                      7-6/18-9                       65          84

Maryland                     7-6/18-10                     80          75

Boston College           6-7/16-11                     49          16

Miami (Fla)                 5-8/17-11                     67          46

Richmond                   10-3/21-7                     62        130

Marquette                    8-7/17-11                     51          27

Baylor                         6-7/17-10                     87          64

Nebraska                     6-7/18-9                       77          74

Colorado                     6-7/17-11                     84          81

Illinois                         7-8/17-11                     39          11

Minnesota                   6-9/17-10                     48          32

Penn State                   8-8/15-12                     53            6

Michigan                     7-9/17-12                     66          21

V C U                         12-5/21-9                     53        115

Drexel                         10-7/19-9                     60        110

U A B                         9-4/19-7                       34          52

Memphis                     9-4/21-7                       33          40

Southern Miss.            9-4/21-6                       41          99

Butler                          12-5/20-9                     45          80

Cleveland St.              12-5/23-7                     42        107

Colorado St.                8-5/18-9                       44          37

Georgia                       7-6/18-9                       40          29

Alabama                      11-2/19-8                     74        139

Gonzaga                      10-3/20-9                     64          78

St. Mary’s                   10-3/22-7                     56        121

 

As we see it, there are 51 spots basically secured at this point.  14 will go to low-major conference automatic qualifiers.  37 will go to teams that have basically already stamped their dance ticket. 

 

17 spots are still up for grabs.  The current bubble plus the three low-major teams that could earn an at-large bid totals to 29 teams.  For each conference tournament in which there is an upset champion that would not have been an at-large candidate, one more bubble will burst.

 

Conference tournament play begins next week, and we will be here to cover it in depth.  Check back daily once the first tournaments are set to begin.  We will have the schedules for all the games and relay the results.

 

This all leads up to our most read story of every year.  On the Monday following Selection Sunday, we will preview the First Four games at Dayton.  On the Wednesday prior to the first regional games, we will preview all 64 remaining teams and show you our fantastic formula for picking the real contenders while dismissing the pretenders.  Our PiRate Ratings Bracketology Formula has been very successful since it was implemented five years ago.

 

PiRate Ratings This Week

Let us look PiRate Rating Style at eight of the top teams this week.  For those of you that have not discovered our rating criteria, you can read all about it in our past college basketball stories.

 

Team Pts. Margin FG Margin Rb Margin TO Margin
Duke 19.0 8.1 3.6 3.6
Florida 9.2 3.8 6.4 0.6
Xavier 8.0 6.3 3.8 0.6
Pittsburgh 14.2 7.4 11.2 0.3
Ohio State 17.6 6.3 4.3 5.7
Kansas 12.6 12.6 7.4 1.6
S. D. State 13.8 7.8 6.8 2.3
Utah State 13.8 8.5 8.7 0.0

 

Team Stl R+T SOS Road W-L PiRate #
Duke 7.8 10.3 .5696 10-2 22
Florida 6.3 7.3 .5944 9-2 14
Xavier 5.5 4.6 .5577 8-5 8
Pittsburgh 5.0 11.6 .5798 9-2 20
Ohio State 7.7 14.8 .5786 8-2 21
Kansas 8.6 10.7 .5917 11-1 26
S. D. State 5.9 10.1 .5667 14-1 22
Utah State 4.6 9.6 .5245 9-3 14

 

Any team with a PiRate Criteria number above 20 must be considered a legitimate candidate for the Elite 8.  A score between 10 and 20 is usually good enough to make it to the Sweet 16, depending on their opposition’s score.  Xavier’s current score of 8 is really only good enough for Two and Out.  The Musketeers are not currently considered to be the Butler of 2011.

 

Florida’s score of 14 indicates the Gators could be gone after two games if they draw a tough opponent.  The SEC does not currently have a legitimate Elite 8 team and in an at-worst scenario, all teams could be gone before the Sweet 16.

 

Utah State is in the same boat with Florida.  The Aggies look good enough to contend for a deep run in the tournament, but it would require them to play pretenders.  At 14, they should be considered at best a Sweet 16 participant and possibly a Two and Out team.

 

San Diego State’s score indicates that the Aztecs are a force to be reckoned with.  If they draw a #1 or #2 seed, they could be in line for a run to the Final Four if their schedule does not find them playing a Kansas in the Elite 8.

February 18, 2011

Bracketbuster Preview and Conference Races

It’s Bracket Buster Weekend, and the folks at ESPN have an interesting slate of televised games.  Since the televised schedule for these games was released in late January, some of the teams involved have gone in the tank.  So, some of the games will not really matter.  However, there are a couple of really good games, and we believe in at least one and maybe two cases, both teams could earn at-large bids if they do not gain automatic bids.   

 

Today, we here at the PiRate Ratings will give you a preview of each televised game.  Following the preview, we will take our weekly look at each conference’s NCAA Tournament contenders and then present to you five bubble teams for comparison.

 

Last week we concentrated on the leagues that will send only their automatic bid winner to the Dance.  We reintroduced the PiRate Criteria formula, but we forgot one component.  So, here in a nutshell is the formula again.

 

1. Scoring Margin

Award 5 points for every team with a scoring margin difference of 10 or more

Award 3 points for every team with a scoring margin difference of 8.0-9.9

Award 1 point for every team with a scoring margin difference of 5.0-7.9

Award 0 points for every team with a scoring margin difference of 0-4.9

Award -3 points for every team with a negative scoring margin

 

2. Field Goal % Margin

Award 5 points for every team with a FG% margin difference of 10% or more

Award 3 points for every team with a FG% margin difference of 7.5 to 9.9

Award 1 point for every team with a FG% margin difference of 5.0-7.4

Award 0 points for every team with a FG% margin difference of 0.0-4.9

Award -3 points for every team with a FG% margin difference below 0

 

3. Rebound Margin

Award 3 points for every team with a Rebound margin difference of 5 or more

Award 1 point for every team with a Rebound margin difference of 3.0-4.9

Award 0 points for every team with a Rebound margin difference of 0-2.9

Award -2 points for every team with a Rebound margin difference below 0

 

4. Turnover Margin

Award 3 points for every team with a Turnover margin difference of 3 or more

Award 1 point for every team with a Turnover margin difference of 1.5-2.9

Award 0 points for every team with a Turnover margin difference of 0-1.4

Award -2 points for every team with a Turnover margin below 0

 

5. PiRate R+T Formula

Once again, the formula for R+T is [R + ({.2*S}*{1.2*T})], Where R is rebounding margin, S is avg. steals per game, and T is turnover margin.

If Turnover margin is 0 or negative, then change the formula a little to this: [R + ({.2*S} + {1.2*T})] 

This is done so as not to penalize a team with negative turnover margin but a lot of steals per game.

 

Award 5 points for every team with an R+T of 10 or more

Award 3 points for every team with an R+T of 7.5-9.9

Award 1 point for every team with an R+T of 5-7.4

Award 0 points for every team with an R+T of 0-4.9

*** Completely eliminate *** from consideration all teams with a negative R+T

 

6. Schedule Strength

Use this to compare when looking at team vs. team.  Take the difference in the Strength of Schedule as given by cbs.sportsline.com and multiple it by 100.  For example, Team A with an SOS of .5252 has a schedule 7 points weaker than Team B with an SOS of .5921 ([(.5921-.5252)*100]=6.69 rounds to 7).

The Average SOS for teams in the top 40 is about .5880.  When you factor in the automatic bids from teams outside of the top 40, that number is about .5500.  So, take each teams SOS rating and take 100 times the difference from .5500 as the number for this item.

 

Example: if State U has a SOS of .5743, the difference is .0243; multiply by 100, and the result is 2.43 which rounds to 2.  If Tech has a SOS of .4878, the difference is -.0622; multiple by 100, and the result is -6.22 which rounds to -6.

 

7. Record Away From Home (road + neutral)

3 points for 75%+ winning percentage

2 points for 60-74% winning percentage

1 point for 51-59% winning percentage

0 points for 50% winning percentage

-2 points for less than 50% winning percentage

 

 

Let us take a look at the Bracket Buster. 

 

Friday, Feb. 18 (all times Eastern)
7 p.m. (ESPN2) – VCU (12-4/20-8) at Wichita State (13-3/22-5)

 

Team Virginia Commonwealth Wichita State
W-L 12-4/20-8 13-3/22-5
RPI 64 48
PPG Margin 4.7 12.2
FG% Margin -1.6 6.9
Reb Margin -3.5 9.3
TO Margin 3.9 -0.8
Stl/G 9.0 5.4
R+T 6.4 9.4
SOS .5124 .5215
Road W-L 9-6 8-4
PiRate # -3 9

Big Wins: VCU—UCLA       Wichita State—Virginia

 

VCU has lost three of their last five games, putting the Rams on the bad side of the bubble.

 

Wichita State lost narrowly to Connecticut and also lost to San Diego State and Missouri State.  The Shockers are on the middle of the bubble.  Their PiRate score of 9 shows they have a legitimate chance of advancing to the Sweet 16.

 

 

9 p.m. (ESPNU)—Kent State (8-3/17-8) at Drexel (9-7/17-9)

Team Kent State Drexel
W-L 8-3/17-8 9-7/17-9
RPI 94 81
PPG Margin 4.8 4.2
FG% Margin 2.9 1.6
Reb Margin 0.5 9.4
TO Margin 1.1 -1.8
Stl/G 8.1 4.0
R+T 2.6 8.0
SOS .4957 .5105
Road W-L 6-7 7-7
PiRate # -7 0

 

Big Wins: Kent—None          Drexel—Louisville, Old Dominion

 

Kent State’s best win was over #109 Iona.  We do not see any at-large bids going to team that have no top 100 wins.  Losses to Florida, UAB, and Cleveland State will not be good enough, and a road win in this game will do little to help.  Kent State must gain an automatic bid.  Their PiRate score of -7 puts them squarely within the parameters of the lesser post-season tournaments (NIT, College Insider Tournament {CIT}, or College Basketball Invitational {CBI}) .

 

Drexel is on the outside of the bubble, but they can work their way into the low rung by winning out.  The Dragons lost to Syracuse and George Mason.  Drexel shoots a poor 31.1% from behind the arc, but opponents shoot only 28%.  As you may know, we do not factor three-point percentage in the PiRate formula, as it has shown no positive relationship to advancing deep into the NCAA Tournament.

 
Saturday, Feb. 19
11 a.m. (ESPNU)—Hofstra (12-4/18-9) at Wright State (10-7/17-12) 

Team Hofstra Wright State
W-L 12-4/18-9 10-7/17-12
RPI 87 115
PPG Margin 1.2 2.7
FG% Margin 0.6 -3.0
Reb Margin -4.7 -3.8
TO Margin 2.2 3.9
Stl/G 6.7 6.3
R+T -1.2 [ELIMINATE] 2.1
SOS .5134 .5173
Road W-L 9-6 5-10
PiRate # -4 ELIMINATE -8

 

Big Wins: Hofstra—Drexel, George Mason               Wright State—Oakland, Butler

 

Hofstra has a negative R+T rating, so they would be considered easy first-round cannon fodder in the NCAA Tournament.  Of course, the PiRate Rating does not apply to regular season games, so they could easily beat Wright State tomorrow.

 

Wright State is not under consideration for an at-large bid, so this game is a dud.  It may be interesting, but both will have to win an automatic bid to get into the Dance.

 

1 p.m. (ESPNU)—Austin Peay (11-5/17-11) at Fairfield (14-2/21-5) 

Team Austin Peay Fairfield
W-L 11-5/17-11 14-2/21-5
RPI 132 101
PPG Margin 7.6 7.8
FG% Margin 3.6 4.2
Reb Margin 0.1 3.5
TO Margin 3.7 1.5
Stl/G 8.9 7.3
R+T 8.0 6.1
SOS .4821 .4465
Road W-L 9-8 11-3
PiRate # 1 -3

 

Big Wins: APSU—Morehead State               Fairfield—Vermont

 

Austin Peay was cruising at the first of conference play, but they have split their last 10 games.  They have no chance at garnering an at-large invitation, but they have a positive PiRate number.  Should they win the automatic bid, they could make their first round game very interesting.

 

Fairfield started 1-3 and has gone 20-2 since.  Their schedule is one of the weakest in the nation, and their gaudy numbers must be severely discounted.  The Stags are overwhelming favorites to win the MAAC Tournament and gain the automatic bid, but should they end up in the NIT, they have a chance to get to MSG.

 

3 p.m. (ESPNU)—Iona (11-5/17-10) at Liberty (13-3/19-9) 

Team Iona Liberty
W-L 11-5/17-10 13-3/19-9
RPI 112 131
PPG Margin 8.7 3.7
FG% Margin 2.5 0.4
Reb Margin 0.6 6.8
TO Margin 3.0 -0.9
Stl/G 7.5 7.0
R+T 6.0 7.1
SOS .4938 .4685
Road W-L 9-8 7-7
PiRate # 2 -6

 

Big Wins: Iona—Richmond               Liberty—None

 

Here are two more teams going nowhere unless they earn automatic bids.  Iona lost by six to Syracuse, so if the Gaels upset Fairfield to win the MAAC automatic bid, with their positive PiRate number, they could cause trouble for a higher-seeded opponent.

 

Liberty’s best win came against #170 UNC-Asheville.  They lost to Notre Dame by 21 and to George Mason by 30.  They will not be on the NIT’s radar if they fail to win the Big South’s automatic bid.

 

5 p.m. (ESPN2)—Missouri State (13-3/21-6) at Valparaiso (11-4/19-8)

Team Missouri State Valparaiso
W-L 13-3/21-6 11-4/19-8
RPI 49 54
PPG Margin 7.9 6.5
FG% Margin 2.5 6.3
Reb Margin 3.3 0.8
TO Margin 0.5 1.4
Stl/G 4.7 8.3
R+T 3.9 3.6
SOS .5121 .5308
Road W-L 7-5 9-6
PiRate # -1 2

 

Big Wins: MSU—Northern Iowa, Wichita State       Valpo—Oakland, Cleveland State, and Butler

 

This will be an interesting game.  Both teams are squarely on the bubble, and the winner should move up enough to be considered on the good side of the bubble. 

 

Missouri State plays smart basketball.  Their two best shooters take 23% of their shots.  A relatively low R+T rating and lower than average SOS give them a negative PiRate Rating.  Their only chance to advance to the weekend in the NCAA Tournament is a first round game with an opponent with a negative R+T rating.

 

Valparaiso goes nine-deep, and seven of the nine are competent rebounders.  They could scare a higher-seeded team in the opening round and possibly have a chance at an upset.  However, they don’t have a good enough rating to advance to the Sweet 16.  They still have work to do before they are guaranteed an at-large bid.

 

5 p.m. (ESPNU)—Vermont (13-2/22-5) at Charleston (12-2/19-7) 

Team Vermont College of Charleston
W-L 13-2/22-5 13-2/20-7
RPI 74 77
PPG Margin 7.6 7.8
FG% Margin 6.8 3.6
Reb Margin 6.2 -0.4
TO Margin 0.9 0.9
Stl/G 5.4 6.4
R+T 7.4 1.0
SOS .4693 .4885
Road W-L 10-4 10-6
PiRate # 0 -5

 

Big Wins: Vermont—Iona                  C of C—Coastal Carolina, Tennessee

 

This is the best Vermont team since the Catamounts upset Syracuse in the opening round of the 2005 tourney.  Still, with a PiRate rating of 0, they would have to face a higher-seeded team with a negative R+T Rating to have a shot at an upset this year.  Additionally, they are far back on the bubble and will most likely need to earn the automatic bid to get there.

 

College of Charleston is much in the same boat as Vermont, but whereas the Catamounts are the prohibitive favorite to secure the America East’s automatic bid, C of C is not even a small favorite to win the Southern Conference’s bid because North Division co-leader Chattanooga is hosting the SoCon Tournament.

 

7 p.m. (ESPN2)—George Mason (14-2/22-5) at Northern Iowa (10-6/19-9)

Team George Mason Northern Iowa
W-L 14-2/22-5 10-6/19-9
RPI 20 79
PPG Margin 13.0 4.0
FG% Margin 7.7 -1.2
Reb Margin 3.0 -0.3
TO Margin 2.6 2.3
Stl/G 6.9 4.8
R+T 7.3 2.3
SOS .5470 .5146
Road W-L 9-5 7-7
PiRate # 13 -8

 

Big Wins: GMU—Harvard, Duquesne, Drexel, James Madison, Hofstra, Old Dominion, and Virginia Commonwealth                                   Northern Iowa—New Mexico, Wichita State, and Missouri State

 

Could George Mason do it again?  The Patriots made a surprise run to the 2006 Final Four by upsetting Michigan State, North Carolina, Wichita State, and Connecticut.  This year’s team could be better than that team.  With a 13 PiRate Rating, they have the numbers to get to the Sweet 16 and have a shot at the Elite Eight, and even another Final Four possibility.

 

Northern Iowa is not the team they were a year ago when they upset Kansas in the NCAA Tournament.  This team is likely not to earn an at-large bid and will be third choice at best to win the Missouri Valley Tournament in St. Louis.

 

9 p.m. (ESPN2)—Utah State (12-1/24-3) at Saint Mary’s (10-2/22-5)

Team Utah State Saint Mary’s
W-L 12-1/24-3 10-2/22-5
RPI 25 39
PPG Margin 13.9 15.3
FG% Margin 8.4 6.2
Reb Margin 8.9 5.6
TO Margin 2.0 2.2
Stl/G 4.5 7.0
R+T 11.1 9.3
SOS .5075 .5086
Road W-L 8-3 9-5
PiRate # 15 11

 

Big Wins: USU—Long Beach State              SMU—St. John’s, Long Beach State, and Gonzaga.

 

If you only plan on watching one Bracketbuster game, this is the one to watch.  Both teams are above the bubble; they are both close to lock status.  This game will be all about seeding.  The winner should find themselves a favorite in the opening round of the Big Dance.

 

Utah State lost at BYU by six and lost at Georgetown.  They don’t really have a big signature win this year, and this game gives them that opportunity.  The Aggies have balanced scoring with seven different players capable of leading the way.  Their 15 PiRate Rating indicate they are a strong contender for the Sweet 16 and even beyond.

 

Saint Mary’s was not too far from doing what Butler did last year.  This team was not supposed to be nearly as good as that one, but the Gaels find themselves in control in the WCC.  They rarely have an off-night shooting, and they can light up the scoreboard.    Their 11 PiRate Rating gives them a shot at returning to the Sweet 16.

 

11 p.m. (ESPN2)—Montana (11-3/19-7) at Long Beach State (11-2/16-10)

Team Montana Long Beach State
W-L 11-3/19-7 11-2/16-10
RPI 109 100
PPG Margin 8.5 9.0
FG% Margin 7.9 0.4
Reb Margin 2.3 2.9
TO Margin 1.1 -1.6
Stl/G 6.7 6.1
R+T 4.1 2.2
SOS .4635 .5109
Road W-L 6-6 8-8
PiRate # -3 -3

 

Big Wins: Montana—UCLA              LBSU—None

 

This is another game where neither team has any chance of earning an at-large bid, while both teams are the favorites to win their respective league’s post-season tournament and automatic bid.

 

Montana has come from behind to race past Northern Colorado and Weber State to take command in the Big Sky Conference race.  Their schedule is exceptionally weak.  Ten of the Grizzlies’ wins have come against teams ranked #250 or worse in the RPI.

 

Long Beach State has five double figure scorers.  Five of their 10 losses came to teams that could be in the Big Dance (San Diego State, Washington, Utah State, North Carolina, and Saint Mary’s).  With a negative PiRate Rating, their only shot at playing two games in the NCAA Tournament would be to face an opening round opponent with a negative R+T Rating.

 

Sunday, Feb. 20
1 p.m. (ESPN2)—Cleveland State (12-4/23-5) at Old Dominion (12-4/21-6)

 

Team Cleveland State Old Dominion
W-L 12-4/23-5 12-4/21-6
RPI 34 31
PPG Margin 9.3 6.7
FG% Margin 3.4 2.4
Reb Margin 0.9 11.1
TO Margin 2.7 -0.7
Stl/G 7.5 7.0
R+T 5.8 11.7
SOS .5165 .5460
Road W-L 9-4 9-4
PiRate # 4 9

 

Big Wins: CSU—Kent State, Valparaiso                   ODU—Clemson, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, George Mason, Hofstra, James Madison, and VCU

 

Here we have two teams that appear to be in great shape for an at-large bid should they fail to win the automatic bid from their conference.

 

You will want to watch this Sunday game, because Cleveland State plays a pressure-type game similar to Marquette when Al McGuire was head coach.  The Vikings’ star is Norris Cole, who can shoot, drive, pass, and play defense better than most others.

 

Old Dominion has played the equivalent schedule of a major conference team.  Short of a major collapse, the Monarchs are close to a lock for an at-large bid.  Their only liability is weak outside shooting.  However, they are among the best rebounding teams in the nation, and they don’t allow many open shots.  Expect a low-scoring, but high-action game.

 

The Who’s In Game

 

America East:  (1)—The conference tournament champion will get the lone bid.  Vermont is too far down the list to steal an at-large bid from a major conference.  However, the Catamounts should win this automatic bid.

BUBBLE—None

 

Atlantic 10: (2 or 3)—Xavier and Temple should get bids, and if another team wins the league tournament, three invitations could be extended. 

BUBBLE—Dayton and Richmond

 

Atlantic Coast: (3-6)—Duke and North Carolina are sure things, but after that there is a logjam.  At least one other ACC team will get a bid, and Boston College is the leader of the pack.  For this week’s story, we will consider the Eagles in and not on the bubble.

BUBBLE—Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Miami

 

Atlantic Sun: (1)—There is a remote possibility that Belmont could enter the conversation for an at-large bid should the Bruins win out but come up a game short in the conference tournament, but for now, we believe only one team will represent the A-Sun.  If Belmont does not win the automatic bid, it will be a major upset.

BUBBLE—None

 

Big 12: (5-7)—The top two teams have been dominating, while the rest of the pack has been beating each other up.  Kansas, Texas, and Texas A&M are locks, while Missouri and Kansas State are in good shape.

BUBBLE—Oklahoma State and Baylor

 

Big East: (9-11)—The Big East Conference Tournament at Madison Square Garden could actually be more potent than one or two of the NCAA Regionals.  At least nine teams must be considered realistic contenders for a Final Four spot.  Those nine shoo-ins for a bid are: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Connecticut, St. John’s, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, and Louisville. 

BUBBLE—Cincinnati and Marquette

 

Big Sky: (1)—There is no chance for an at-large invitation from this conference.  Montana is the top team in the league, but the Grizzlies are not strong favorites.

 

Big South: (1)—Coastal Carolina is a bit too far back in the RPI ratings to move onto the bubble, but the Chanticleers are overwhelming favorites to win the automatic bid.

 

Big Ten: (4-8)—The second most powerful conference to the Big East, this conference could land as many as eight teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois are in as of today.  The four bubble teams’ schedules are among the strongest of all bubble teams.

BUBBLE—Minnesota, Michigan State, Penn State, and Michigan

 

 Big West: (1)—Long Beach State is too far back to make up enough ground; their bubble will burst if the 49ers do not win the conference tournament in nearby Anaheim.

 

Colonial: (2 or 3)—George Mason and Old Dominion are both near-locks, and we have them in the field.  If another team pulls off the upset in the conference tournament, this league will have three representatives.  Virginia Commonwealth has a chance to move onto the bubble, especially if they win at Wichita State tonight.

 

Conference USA: (2-5)—UAB and Memphis have earned a spot in the Dance if they continue to play at their same pace.  Three other teams are on the bubble with legitimate shots at playing their way into the at-large group.

BUBBLE—Southern Mississippi, UTEP, and Marshall

 

Horizon: (1-3)—We are rather confident that at least two teams will earn bids from the Horizon League, but we have two of them listed as bubble teams for now.  Cleveland State is ranked high enough to be ahead of the bubble for now.

BUBBLE—Butler and Valparaiso

 

IVY: (1 or 2)The Ivy League has never sent two teams to the NCAA Tournament, but there is a very outside chance that it could happen this year.  There is no conference tournament, so the regular season champion gets the automatic bid.  Princeton (9-0) leads Harvard (9-1) and Yale (5-3).  The Tigers play at Yale and Brown, while Harvard plays at Cornell and Columbia this weekend.  Yale hosts Penn tomorrow night after facing Princeton tonight.  The number two team needs to be at least 11-3 to be a serious contender for an at-large bid.

BUBBLE—Harvard/Princeton whichever finishes second

 

MAAC:(1)—Fairfield is not in contention for an at-large bid, so the Stags will have to win the conference tournament to get into the Dance.

 

MAC: (1)—This once proud conference has joined the field of also-rans.  No MAC team ranks in the top 90 in the RPI ratings.  Miami (Ohio), Kent State, and Buffalo are the top three contenders for the automatic bid.

 

MEAC: (1)—Morgan State is not a sure thing this year, not even the top favorite.  Hampton is playing well enough to avoid a First Four game.

 

Missouri Valley: (1 or 2)—The MVC is a tad bit down this season.  The conference tournament champion could be the only team to emerge with a bid, if it is the regular season champion and if the numbers two and three teams lose before reaching the championship round.  Wichita State appears to be the favorite for now, but that could change.

BUBBLE—Missouri State and Northern Iowa

 

Mountain West: (3-5)—Not only could the MWC earn five bids, two teams could be number one or two seeds!  BYU and San Diego State have proven themselves this season.  They are currently number two and three respectively in the RPI Ratings.  UNLV is maybe the lowest-ranked team in the near-lock range.  The bubble aligns just behind the Rebels.

BUBBLE—Colorado State and New Mexico

 

Northeast: (1)—Long Island is ranked #98 in the RPI, but that is too low to qualify for bubble status.  The Blackbirds will only go dancing if they win the conference tournament.

 

Ohio Valley: (1)—Murray State and Morehead State are tied at 12-4.  Morehead has won eight games in a row, including an impressive win at rival Eastern Kentucky.  The Eagles’ big man, Kenneth Faried, averages 17.5 points and 14.3 rebounds per game.

 

Pac-10: (2-4)—Arizona is the only sure thing, but for this week’s list, we will include UCLA as well.  This league still has a long way to go to regain its lost prestige.

BUBBLE—Washington and Washington State

 

Patriot: (1)—Bucknell is the favorite over American, but it is not by much. 

 

Southeastern: (4-6)—There is no dominant team in the SEC this year, and the conference tournament should be almost as entertaining as the Big East Tournament.  Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Tennessee are in.  One or two more could work their way in.

BUBBLE—Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss

 

Southern: (1)—There is no Stephen Curry-led Davidson teams in the league this year.  Chattanooga must be considered the slight favorite, because the Mocs host the SoCon Tournament.  Western Carolina, College of Charleston, Wofford, and Furman are the top contenders.

 

Southland: (1)—This is the most open race for the lone automatic bid.  The SLC sends the top eight teams to its conference tournament, and there is not much difference in the top eight.  Draw one out of a hat.

 

SWAC: (1)—This league has become a regular in the play-in round, and with it now expanded to the First Four, you can expect to see the SWAC representative in Dayton again this season.  Texas Southern and Jackson State are the only two teams with won-loss records above .500.

 

Summit: (1)—Oakland is the highest-rated team not on our bubble.  At #73, we just do not believe the Golden Grizzlies can lose another game and have a shot at an at-large bid.

 

Sunbelt: (1)—Florida Atlantic represents the SBC’s only chance to avoid a #15 or #16 seed.  This league is suffering through an off year.

 

West Coast: (1 or 2)—Saint Mary’s is a lock for an at-large bid.  If they should happen to lose in the WCC Tournament, this league will send two teams. 

BUBBLE—Gonzaga

 

WAC: (1 or 2)—Utah State is in the same boat as Saint Mary’s, but it will be a much bigger upset if the Aggies do not waltz through their conference tournament and earn the automatic bid.

 

According to our math, we have 57 spots going to automatic bids and locks for at-large bids.  That leaves 11 spots for upset conference tournament winners and the bubble.

February 11, 2011

This Week’s Look At The NCAA Basketball Conference Races

Today, we here at the PiRate Ratings begin our coverage of NCAA Men’s Basketball.  In what has become our most followed sport, we have generated a little publicity with our PiRate NCAA Tournament rating system.

 

In past years, we waited until Selection Sunday to re-issue our system, but this year we have chosen to release it early so you the reader can have time to familiarize yourself with it.  We will also apply it to a couple of teams every week to give you some time to play with the ratings.

 

Remember this:  this rating is only good in the NCAA Tournament and cannot (REPEAT CANNOT) be used in the regular season or even in conference tournaments.  It has been back-tested for decades and has proven to locate the serious contenders from the so-called contenders and pretenders.

 

How good has this rating been for us:  Let’s start with 2009-10.  Kansas and Kentucky were the overwhelming favorites to face off for the championship.  Our ratings said they would not make it there.  We would love to say we chose Butler to make it to the Final Four, but we did not (although we rated them highly).  We did choose Duke to run the table and win the title, as they had the highest criteria score.

 

We picked North Carolina, Kansas, and Florida to win their national titles as well, and we even hit on George Mason to make a surprise run the year they advanced to the Final Four. 

 

To put it bluntly, we are due for a major failure this year.  Our football predictions were just too accurate.  Our luck has to run out at some point?  Well, we can talk about our Kentucky Derby picks in recent years.  Maybe, that is the balancing point.

 

Without further adieu, here is our criteria for finding the top teams in the NCAA Tournament, what we call Bracketnomics 505.

 

Bracketnomics 505–The Advanced Level Class

This is a graduate level class that will earn you a Masters in Bracketnomics.  So you want a scientific method to guide you as you fill out your brackets?  You say you want a system that will take out most of the human-bias, and allow you to pick your teams in a mechanical fashion.  Well, we’ve got one for you that has been back-tested and holds up fantastically through the years. 

What the inventor of the PiRate system did was to discover the vital information that has worked in the past.  He’s been using this formula since the Internet made statistics-gathering easy, and it has been back-tested as far back as the days when the NCAA Tournament field consisted of just 23, 24, or 25 teams.

This method will not pick every game correctly and make you an instant millionaire.  It is geared toward finding the tendencies that historically have mattered most in picking the teams with the best chances of advancing.  Not all teams will be a perfect fit in this formula; what this formula does is pick the teams that have the best chance of advancing and making a deep run into the tournament. 

There have been a couple of seasons where the criteria didn’t apply successfully, but over the course of the 55 seasons, it has performed accurately about 47 times.  Without further adieu, here is the PiRate Bracket-Picking System.

1. Scoring Margin

For general bracket picking, look for teams that outscored their opponents by an average of 8 or more points per game.  Over 85% of the Final Four teams since the 1950’s outscored their opponents by an average of 8 or more points per game. 

Make a separate list of teams that outscored their opponents by an average of 10 or more points per game and a third list of teams outscoring opponents by an average of 15 or more points per game.  More than 80% of the final four teams in the last 50 years outscored their opponents by double digit points per game.  When you find a team with an average scoring margin in excess of 15 points per game, and that team is in one of the six power conferences, then you have a team that will advance into the tournament’s second week.

This is an obvious statistic here.  If team A outscores opponents by an average of 85-70 and their team B opponent outscores their opposition by an average of 75-70, team A figures to be better than team B before you look at any other statistics. 

In the days of the 64/65-team field, this statistic has become even more valuable.  It’s very difficult and close to impossible for a team accustomed to winning games by one to seven points to win four times in a row.  This average gives the same significance and weighting to a team that outscores its opposition 100-90 as it does to a team that outscores its opposition 60-50.

2. Field Goal Percentage Differential

Take each team’s field goal percentage minus their defensive field goal percentage.  Look for teams that have a +7.5% or better showing.  50% to 42% is no better or no worse than 45% to 37%.  A difference of 7.5% or better is all that matters.  Teams that have a large field goal percentage margin are consistently good teams.  Sure, a team can win a game with a negative field goal percentage difference, but in the Big Dance, they aren’t going to win four games much less two.  This statistic holds strong in back-tests of 50 years. 

Even when teams won the tournament with less than 7.5% field goal percentage margins, for the most part, these teams just barely missed (usually in the 5.5 to 7.5% range).  In the years of the 64/65-team tournament, this stat has become a more accurate predictor.  Nowadays, the teams with field goal percentage margins in the double digits have dominated the field.  If you see a team shoot better than 48% and allow 38% or less, that team is going to be very hard to beat in large arenas with weird sight lines.

3. Rebound Margin

This statistic holds up all the way back to the early days of basketball, in fact as far back as the days when rebounds were first recorded.  The teams that consistently control the boards are the ones that advance  in the tournament.  What we’re looking for here are teams that out-rebound their opposition by five or more per game.  In the opening two rounds, a difference of three or more can be used.

The reason this statistic becomes even more important in mid-March is that teams don’t always shoot as well in the NCAA Tournament for a variety of reasons (better defense, abnormal sight lines and unfamiliar gymnasiums, nerves, new rims and nets, more physical play with the refs allowing it, etc.).  The teams that can consistently get offensive putbacks are the teams that go on scoring runs in these games.  The teams that prevent the opposition from getting offensive rebounds, holding them to one shot per possession, have a huge advantage. 

Again, there will be some teams that advance that were beaten on the boards, but over the course of four rounds, it is rare for one of these teams to advance.  West Virginia in 2005 made it to the Elite Eight without being able to rebound, but not many other teams have been able to do so.  There have been years where all four Final Four participants were in the top 20 in rebounding margin, and there have been many years where the champion was in the top 5 in rebounding margin.

4. Turnover Margin & Steals Per Game

Turnover margin can give a weaker rebounding team a chance.  Any positive turnover margin is good here.  If a team cannot meet the rebounding margin listed above, they can get by if they have an excellent turnover margin.  Not all turnover margin is the same though.  A team that forces a high number of turnovers by way of steals is better than a team that forces the same amount of turnovers without steals.  A steal is better than a defensive rebound, because most of the time, a steal leads to a fast-break basket or foul.  When a team steals the ball, they are already facing their basket, and the defense must turn around and chase.  Many steals occur on the perimeter where the ball-hawking team has a numbers advantage.  So, this system counts a steal as being worth 1.33 rebounds. 

The criteria to look for here is a positive turnover margin if the team out-rebounds its opposition by three or more; a turnover margin of three or better if the team out-rebounds its opposition by less than three; and a turnover margin of five or more if the team does not out-rebound its opponents.  Give more weight to teams that average 7.5 or more steals per game, and give much more weight to teams that average double figure steals per game.  A team that averages more than 10 steals per game will get a lot of fast-break baskets and foul shots.  In NCAA Tournament play, one quick spurt can be like a three-run homer in the World Series, and teams that either steal the ball or control the boards are the ones that will get that spurt.

The All-Important R+T Margin: Consider this the basketball equivalent of baseball’s OPS (On Base % + Slugging %).  Here is the PiRate R+T stat: R + (.2S * {1.2T}), where R is rebounding margin, S is average steals per game, and T is turnover margin.  When this stat is 5 or more, you have a team that can overcome a few other liabilities to win.  When the result is 10 or more, you have a team that has a great chance of getting enough additional scoring opportunities to make it to the later rounds.  When this stat is negative, you have a team that will be eliminated before the Sweet 16 and in the case of Georgetown and Vanderbilt in 2010, a team that will lose in the first round to mid-majors with much better R+T ratings.

5. Power Conference Plus Schedule Strength

I’m sure up to this point you have been thinking that it is much easier for North Dakota State or Siena to own these gaudy statistics than it is for Pittsburgh or Michigan State.  Of course, that’s correct.  We have to adjust this procedure so that the top conferences get extra weight, while the bottom conferences’ criteria ratings lose points.  Here is how we do it.  Look at the Strength of schedule for every team in the Field.  You can find SOS on many websites, such as the RPI at cbs.sportsline.com or at realtimerpi.com.  Take the decimal difference for each team in the Field and multiply that by 100.  For example if Team A’s SOS is .6044 and Team B’s is .5777, the difference times 100 is 2.67.  So, Team A’s schedule was 2.67 points (or round it to 3) per game tougher than Team B’s.  Use this in head-to-head contests for every game in your bracket.

These are the five basic PiRate criteria used for the last dozen or so years.  You might be shocked to see that there are some key statistics that are not included.  Let’s look at some of these stats not to rely upon.

Assists and Assists to Turnover Ratio

While assists can reveal an excellent passing team, they also can hide a problem.  Let’s say a team gets 28 field goals and has 21 assists.  That may very well indicate this team can pass better than most others.  However, it can also mean two other things.  First, this team may not have players who can create their own offense and must get by on exceptional passing.  That may not work against the best defensive teams in the nation, or the type that get into the Dance.  Second, and even more importantly, it may indicate that this team cannot get offensive putbacks.  As explained earlier, the offensive putback is about as important as any stat can be.  So, consider this stat only if you must decide on a toss-up after looking at the big five stats.

Free Throw Shooting

Of course, free throw shooting in the clutch decides many ball games.  However, history shows a long line of teams making it deep into the tournament with poor free throw shooting percentages, and teams that overly rely on free throws may find it tough getting to the line with the liberalized officiating in the tournament.

Let’s say a team shoots a paltry 60% at the foul line while their opponent hits a great 75% of their foul shots.  Let’s say each team gets to the foul line 15 times in the game, with five of those chances being 1&1, three being one shot after made baskets, and seven being two shot fouls. 

 

For the 60% shooting team, they can be expected to hit 3 of 5 on the front end of the 1&1 and then 1.8 of the 3 bonus shots; they can be expected to hit 1.8 of 3 on the one foul shot after made baskets; and they can be expected to hit 8.4 of 14 on the two shot fouls for a total of 15 out of 25.  The 75% shooting team can be expected to connect on 3.75 of 5 on the front end of the 1&1 and then 2.8 of 3.75 on the bonus shot; they can be expected to hit 2.3 of 3 on the one foul shot after made baskets; and they can be expected to connect on 10.5 of 14 on the two shot fouls for a total of 19.35 out of 25.75.  So, a team with one of the top FT% only scores 4.35 more points at the foul line than a team with one of the worst.  That is not many points to make up, and when you consider that this is about the maximum possible difference, this stat is not all that important.  Also consider that teams that shoot 60% of their foul shots and make the NCAA Tournament are almost always the teams that also have the top R+T ratings. 

Teams that make the NCAA Tournament with gaudy free throw percentages frequently get there by winning close games at the line.  In the NCAA Tournament, fouls just don’t get called as frequently as in the regular season.  The referees let the teams play.  So, looking at superior free throw percentage can almost lead you down the wrong path. 

Ponder this:  The 1973 UCLA Bruins are considered to be the best college basketball team ever.  That team connected on just 63% of its free throws.  They had a rebounding margin of 15.2, and they forced many turnovers via steals thanks to their vaunted 2-2-1 zone press.  In the great UCLA dynasty from 1964 through 1973 when the Bruins won nine titles in 10 years, they never once connected on 70% of their free throws and averaged just 66% during that stretch.

3-point shooting

You have to look at this statistic two different ways and consider that it is already part of field goal percentage and defensive field goal percentage.  Contrary to popular belief you do not count the difference in made three-pointers and multiply by three to see the difference.  If Team A hits eight treys, while their Team B opponents hit three, that is not a difference of 15 points; it’s a difference of five points.  Consider made three-pointers as one extra point because they are already figured as made field goals.  A team with 26 made field goals and eight treys has only one more point than a team with 26 made field goals and seven treys.

The only time to give three-point shots any weight in this criteria is when you are looking at a toss-up game, and when you do look at this stat, look for the team that does not rely on them to win, but instead uses a credible percentage that prevents defenses from sagging into the 10-12-foot area around the basket.  If a team cannot throw it in the ocean from behind the arc, defenses can sag inside and take away the inside game.  It doesn’t play much of a role in the NCAA Tournament.  A team that must hit 10 threes per game in order to win isn’t going to be around after the first weekend.

One Big Star or Two Really Good Players

Teams that got to the Dance by riding one big star or a majority of scoring from two players are not solid enough to advance very far.  Now, this does not apply to a team with one big star and four really good players.  I’m referring to a team with one big star and four lemons or two big scorers with three guys who are allergic to the ball.  Many times a team may have one big scorer or two guys who score 85% of the points, but the other three starters are capable of scoring 20 points if they are called on to do so.  If you have a team with five double figure scorers, that will be a harder one to defend and one that will be consistent.  It’s hard for all five players to slump at once.

We hope this primer will help you when you fill out your brackets this week. 

Now, here is a way to put numbers to the criteria.  It isn’t exactly the way our founder did it every year, but it is a close approximation.

1. Scoring Margin

Award 5 points for every team with a scoring margin difference of 10 or more

Award 3 points for every team with a scoring margin difference of 8.0-9.9

Award 1 point for every team with a scoring margin difference of 5.0-7.9

Award 0 points for every team with a scoring margin difference of 0-4.9

Award -3 points for every team with a negative scoring margin

2. Field Goal % Margin

Award 5 points for every team with a FG% margin difference of 10% or more

Award 3 points for every team with a FG% margin difference of 7.5 to 9.9

Award 1 point for every team with a FG% margin difference of 5.0-7.4

Award 0 points for every team with a FG% margin difference of 0.0-4.9

Award -3 points for every team with a FG% margin difference below 0

3. Rebound Margin

Award 3 points for every team with a Rebound margin difference of 5 or more

Award 1 point for every team with a Rebound margin difference of 3.0-4.9

Award 0 points for every team with a Rebound margin difference of 0-2.9

Award -2 points for every team with a Rebound margin difference below 0

4. Turnover Margin

Award 3 points for every team with a Turnover margin difference of 3 or more

Award 1 point for every team with a Turnover margin difference of 1.5-2.9

Award 0 points for every team with a Turnover margin difference of 0-1.4

Award -2 points for every team with a Turnover margin below 0

5. PiRate R+T Formula

Once again, the formula for R+T is [R + ({.2*S}*{1.2*T})], Where R is rebounding margin, S is avg. steals per game, and T is turnover margin

Award 5 points for every team with an R+T of 10 or more

Award 3 points for every team with an R+T of 7.5-9.9

Award 1 point for every team with an R+T of 5-7.4

Award 0 points for every team with an R+T of 0-4.9

*** Completely eliminate from consideration all teams with a negative R+T rating ***

6. Schedule Strength

Use this to compare when looking at team vs. team.  Take the difference in the Strength of Schedule as given by cbs.sportsline.com and multiple it by 100.  For example, Team A with an SOS of .5252 has a schedule 7 points weaker than Team B with an SOS of .5921.  If these two teams face each other, give the Team B an extra 7 criteria points over Team A ([(.5921-.5252)*100]=6.69 rounds to 7).

If you want to compile all this information yourself, the best way is to go to all 65 official athletic websites of the teams in the Big Dance.  You will find up-to-date statistical information.  Some of these stats are available in other places, but many have been found to be riddled with mistakes, or they are not up-to-date.  All 65 school sites are accurate and timely.

 

If you have read this far, you are now a bracketonomist.

 

We will show you how this works in a bit.

 

A Look At The One-Bid Conferences

 

As we see it today, 18 conferences have no shot at landing more than one team in the NCAA Tournament.  Five other conferences have one dominant team that could earn an at-large bid if they fail to win the automatic bid.  These conferences will only send one team if the prohibitive favorite wins their conference tournament.

 

Today, we will concentrate on those 18 definite one-bid conferences.  We will look at the stronger mid-majors next Friday on the eve of Bracket Buster Weekend.

 

America East Conference

Vermont 11-2/20-5 and Maine 8-4/14-10 are the class of the league.  Maine won at Vermont72-58, but the Catamounts have a nearly insurmountable lead.  Vermont led Connecticut at the half earlier this year before losing by 16.  You can see them next Saturday in the televised part of the Bracket Buster when they play at College of Charleston.

 

Maine hosts Vermont next Wednesday, but even a win and sweep may not be enough to overtake the Catamounts.

 

The tournament’s first four rounds takes place in Hartford, CT with the championship scheduled for the higher seeded team’s home floor.

 

Boston U 8-4/13-13 is another team to watch.

 

Atlantic Sun Conference

Belmont 14-1/22-4 would have a shot at an at-large bid if not for a lousy last-minute turnover that cost them a chance to win at Tennessee.  The Bruins lost twice at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, and at rival Lipscomb.  They beat second place East Tennessee 12-3/17-9 by 10 and swept third place Jacksonville 10-4/16-7.  Before losing at fourth place Lipscomb 10-6/15-10, they beat the Bisons 88-52.

 

East Tennessee hosts Jacksonville tonight in Johnson City.  The Buccaneers beat the Dolphins in Jacksonville earlier this year.  ETSU beat Mississippi State in Starkville in December, while Jacksonville has road wins against Florida and Auburn.

 

Lipscomb lost close games at North Carolina and Baylor, and the Bisons have the talent to make it to the conference finals if they can put it all together.  However, they won’t get there from the four hole.

 

The A-Sun tournament takes place in Macon, Georgia, at Mercer.  Eight of the 11 teams qualify.  If Belmont loses, it will be an upset.  The Bruins have the talent to give this league an upset in the opening round; Belmont came within a last-second missed shot of upsetting Duke a few years ago.

 

Big Sky Conference

This conference does not have a mini-powerhouse this year like in past years.  Four teams, Northern Colorado 10-2/14-9, Montana 9-3/17-7, Weber State 7-4/13-9, and Northern Arizona 6-5/14-9, have the talent to win the lone bid.

 

Northern Colorado goes to Montana tomorrow.  They clobbered the Grizzlies by 18 earlier.  UNC already split with Weber State and lost at Northern Arizona.

 

Montana owns wins over UCLA and Oregon State.  They split with Weber State and Northern Arizona.  You can see them on TV in the Bracket Buster next week at Long Beach State.  We believe they can run the table in conference play and earn the top seed.

 

Weber State blew Northern Arizona off the floor by 27 points last night to complete the season’s sweep.  They gave BYU a close game earlier in the season.

 

Northern Arizona was the hot team before last night.  They took Arizona to the wire in Tucson earlier this season, but they are too far back to contend for top seed.

 

The Big Sky Tournament first round takes place on the home courts of the higher-seeded teams.  The semifinals and finals will be played on the home court of the regular season champion.  Only six teams qualify, with the top two seeds getting a bye to the semifinals.  Northern Colorado, Weber State, and Montana all enjoy excellent home court advantages, and this conference rarely has any post-season surprises. 

 

Big South Conference

This is a story of one dynamo and four or five minor contenders.  Coastal Carolina is 14-0/23-2 under venerable coach Cliff Ellis.  The two losses were on the road to Georgetown and College of Charleston.  The Chanticleers carry a 21-game winning streak into the weekend.

 

CCU already swept second place Liberty 12-2/18-8.  They travel to third place Winthrop tomorrow, and a win could allow the Chants to run the table and finish the regular season 28-2.

 

UNC-Asheville 7-6/12-11 and Charleston Southern 7-7/13-13 don’t have the talent to beat CCU.  The one team that could sneak up and surprise the leaders and make a run to the title is VMI 6-8/13-11.  The Keydets average 91 points per game, and in a conference tournament, their loose style of play could give them a chance.

 

The Big South Tournament is played on the home court of the higher-seeded teams all the way through the championship.  We cannot see somebody upsetting CCU, and the Chants will not be an easy out in the Big Dance.

 

Big West

The Big West is down this year, and it hasn’t exactly been all that up in recent years.  We believe any of the top five could win the conference tournament.

 

Long Beach State 9-2/14-10 is not nearly as strong as they were a couple years ago when they won the conference tournament.  Their two losses in league play were to sixth place Cal State Fullerton and last place UC-Irvine.  The 49ers beat Iowa and played North Carolina and St. Mary’s close, but they are not consistent.  You can watch them on Bracket Buster weekend as they face Montana.

 

Cal Poly 7-4/12-11 plays football on the basketball floor.  They win ugly with an annoying defense and patient offense.  They gave San Diego State a rough game before losing 51-45.

 

Cal State Northridge 7-4/10-14 hosts Long Beach State tomorrow, and we believe the Matadors will pull off the upset.  Lenny Daniel (15.9 ppg/9.4 rpg) is a dominating power forward in a forward-dominated league.  CSN is hot, having won five of six.

 

UC-Santa Barbara 6-5/13-9 owns a win at UNLV.  The Gauchos have not lived up to expectations this year, but they have the potential to get hot and go on a roll at the tournament.  Orlando Johnson (21.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.1 ast/g) is the league’s best player. 

 

Keep an eye on Pacific 5-5/13-10.  The Tigers lost twice to LBSU by one point and could get a third try in a conference semifinal.  Sam Willard averages a double-double (15/11).

 

The Big West Tournament takes place in Anaheim with eight of the nine teams participating.

 

Horizon League

This should be quite an interesting conference tournament.  Butler 9-5/17-9 was supposed to waltz through the league again after going 18-0 last year.  The Bulldogs sit in a fourth place tie with four games to go.  However, Butler has won three games in a row including wins at Cleveland State 10-4/21-5 and against Wright State 10-5/17-10, two of the three teams ahead of the Bulldogs.

 

An old regular in the Big Dance, Valparaiso 10-3/18-7 rests in first place, after winning 12 of their last 15.  Watch them on TV in next weekend’s Bracket Buster, when Valpo hosts Missouri State.

 

Cleveland State began the season 12-0.  The Vikings style of play (100% full-court pressure defense and drive to the basket offense) is tough to prepare for, but it appears the team could be hitting the wall.  If CSU can take the #1 seed, they will be very tough to dethrone on their home floor.

 

UW-Milwaukee 9-5/14-11 is tied with Butler, but their schedule is the most unfavorable of the contenders.  The Panthers finish with three road games.

 

The conference tournament begins on the home floor of the #3-4-5-6 seeds with the top two seeds receiving byes.  The quarterfinals and semifinals take place on the home floor of the #1 seed, and the championship game will be played on the higher-seeded participant’s home floor. 

 

Ivy League

This league is the one holdout on a postseason conference tournament, so the regular season champion receives the automatic bid.  Until recently, this was a two-team race every year, but now it is more open.  Princeton 5-0/17-4 and Penn 3-2/9-10 are still very much in the running for the crown, but the two elitist of the elite, Harvard 5-1/16-4 and Yale 4-2/11-9, are very much in the race.

 

We believe Harvard has the inside track at winning the league title.  Princeton’s five conference wins were all home games, and the Tigers must play at Harvard, Yale, and Penn, closing with Harvard and Penn.  The Crimson won at Penn.

 

Yale and Harvard have yet to square off, and if one sweeps the other, it will probably be enough to grab the Ivy crown.  If they split, then we believe Harvard is the team to beat.

 

Penn, like Princeton, has played a majority of their games at home.  The Quakers finish with six road games in their final nine.

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

The MAAC is loaded with decent, albeit not great mid-major teams.  Fairfield 11-2/18-5 leads St. Peter’s 9-4/14-10 and Rider 9-4/17-8, but their real advantage comes in the conference tournament, where they will be the host team.  The Stags play at St. Peter’s Sunday trying to go for the sweep after winning 70-43 in Bridgeport earlier this year.  Fairfield hosts Austin Peay in the televised part of the Bracket Buster.

 

St. Peter’s plays great in-your-face defense.  They were good enough to beat Alabama.  However, their offense can disappear for several minutes.

 

Rider actually won at Fairfield this year, so the Broncos are not to be overlooked.  They also upset Southern Cal.

 

Iona 8-5/14-10 and Loyola (Md.) 8-5/12-11 must be considered contenders.  Iona has the best offense in the league and took Fairfield to the buzzer in Bridgeport.  Loyola beat the Stags at home, and the Greyhounds have an easy schedule to finish the regular season.  They have a shot at running the table to head to Webster Bank Arena at 13-5 in the league.

 

Mid-American Conference

This league used to be considered one of the top mid-major conferences and used to send multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament every year.  Now, not only will it be a one-team league, that team could even find itself playing in Dayton in the First Four if an upset winner emerges with the bid!

 

The MAC has no wins against the top 25 this year.  The top eight teams make it to Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, and none of the eight can be considered much of a favorite.

 

We expect those eight teams to be Kent State 7-2/16-7, Buffalo 7-3/15-7, Bowling Green 7-3/12-12, Miami (O) 7-3/12-12, Akron 5-5/14-10, Ohio U 5-5/12-12 (the entire East Division) as well as Ball State 6-4/14-9 and Western Michigan 5-4/12-10 from the West.

 

Kent State has won six games in a row.  The Golden Flashes host Buffalo on February 24 after losing by 25 at Buffalo earlier.

 

Buffalo has the best statistical numbers.  The Bulls gave BYU a good game before losing.

 

Bowling Green began the season 2-9, but the Falcons have gone 10-3 since.  BGSU won at Buffalo

 

Miami has won three in a row, and the Redhawks have the most favorable closing schedule.

 

Ball State was cruising in the West before losing five of their last six games.  Western Michigan hosts five of their final eight games including a crucial game against the Cardinals.

 

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Morgan State 7-3/11-10 has not run away from the pack like in recent years.  In fact, the Bears are not in first place at this moment.  The team that finished 2010 on a roll, Hampton 8-2/18-5, has overtaken Todd Bozeman’s cagers.

 

Morgan State has the easier closing schedule, so there is a chance the Bears will finish on top again.

 

Bethune-Cookman 7-3/13-11 and Coppin State 6-4/11-11 were not expected to contend this season, but they have been surprises.  BCU had won eight of nine games until losing to Coppin State and Morgan State.  Coppin State has the best offense in the league.

 

The MEAC Tournament takes place in Winston-Salem at Wake Forest.  The top two seeds receive an opening round bye and then get a day off if they win.

 

Northeast Conference

Brooklyn’s team, Long Island University 11-2/19-5, is the hot team this year.  Julian Boyd’s return after missing a season due to a heart condition has been the difference.  Boyd has recorded seven double-doubles this year including a 34-point, 16-rebound performance against Fairleigh-Dickinson.  The Blackbirds have won five in a row and 13 of 14 games.

 

Central Connecticut State 10-3/17-7 has won seven games in a row by an average margin of 13.1 points per game.  The Blue Devils also welcome back a player that missed all of 2010.  Ken Horton averages 19 points and nine boards a game.  He has nine double-doubles this year.

 

Wagner 8-5/12-12, Mount St. Mary’s 8-5/10-16, and Quinnipiac 8-5/16-8 are the best of the rest.  Quinnipiac has underperformed after being picked to repeat as regular season champs by many publications.

 

Keep an eye on Robert Morris 7-6/11-13.  The Colonials have won the previous two conference tournaments, and they have underachieved as much as Quinnipiac.

 

The NEC tournament takes place on the home courts of the higher-seeded teams.  This conference does not have a set bracket, choosing to send the lowest remaining seeds to the highest remaining seeds much like is done in the NFL Playoffs.

 

Ohio Valley Conference

The cream has risen to the top in this conference.  Murray State 11-3/19-6 is on a 15-2 run that has seen the Racers pass three teams to surge into first place.  This is a balanced team with the ability to go 10-deep.

 

Morehead State 10-4/18-8 has the big hoss of the league.  Kenneth Faried averages 17.1 points and 14.2 rebounds per game.  The Eagles are on a 12-2 run, but they must finish with three of four on the road, including a trip to rival Eastern Kentucky 8-6/14-11.

 

Austin Peay 9-5/15-11 began conference play at 6-0, but the Governors have hit on rough times.  They are the lone OVC team to appear on TV in the Bracket Buster, playing at Fairfield.

 

Tennessee Tech 9-6/13-11 is having one of its better seasons in years, but the Golden Eagles could be looking at having to play Murray State in a semifinal round game in the tournament.  If they can finish strong and gain the number three seed, then their chances improve greatly.

 

The OVC Tournament takes place in Nashville with the top eight teams qualifying.  The #3 and #4 seeds get one bye, while the top two seeds get byes to the semifinals.  Murray State and Morehead State would make a great championship game.

 

Patriot League

Bucknell 8-1/17-8 is the clear-cut cream of the crop in the league this season.  The Bison have the talent to win an NCAA Tournament game. 

 

American 6-3/16-8 has some streaky shooters that can get hot and knock an opponent out. 

 

Lafayette 5-4/10-14 is the only other team with a winning conference record, but they should not be considered a contender.  It would be a big upset if Bucknell and American failed to meet for the conference championship.

 

The Patriot League Tournament is strictly a higher-seed hosts tournament.  Bucknell should be considered one of the biggest favorites in Division I to win a conference tournament.

 

Southern Conference

This is not an exceptionally strong year in the SoCon this year.  Chattanooga 10-3/14-11 has won all seven home conference games, which is a good sign; they host the league tournament.

 

Western Carolina 7-5/11-13 is the only team capable of removing the Mocs from the top spot in the North Division.  They too are 7-0 at home in conference play.

 

In the South, College of Charleston 11-2/18-7 leads a tight race with Furman 10-4/18-7 and Wofford 10-4/13-12 on their heels.

 

Charleston has the league’s top player in guard Andrew Goudelock, who averages better than 24 points per game.  The Cougars took North Carolina to the wire at the Dean Dome, and they won at Tennessee.  They narrowly missed the upset at Maryland, losing by one.  If they can top Chattanooga on their home floor, they have the only legitimate shot of winning in the Big Dance.

 

Southland Conference

This conference sends the top eight teams to the postseason tournament.  This year, any one of the eight we believe will earn a trip could win it.  In the East, Northwestern State 7-3/15-10 leads the entire league after winning three in a row and five of six games.  They are a quick-spurt team that relies on forcing turnovers and scoring quickly. 

 

McNeese State 5-3/13-8 and Southeast Louisiana 5-4/11-10 should make the field of eight as well.  McNeese is a surprise contender thanks to the double-double average of P. J. Alawoya.  SELA relies on the three-point shooting of Trent Hutchins.

 

The West has five good but not great teams.  Texas State 6-3/11-12 leads by a game over the other four.  The Bobcats can score points quickly when they are on their game, but they can give them up even quicker when they are not.

 

Stephen F. Austin 5-4/14-7, Sam Houston 5-4/12-10, Texas-San Antonio 5-4/12-10, and Texas-Arlington 5-4/11-11 are all in the hunt for the West title.  Each team has its own unique set of assets and liabilities.  If we had to choose a favorite for the tournament, it would be Sam Houston.

 

The tournament takes place in Katy, Texas, a suburb of Houston.  It should be exciting.

 

Southwest Athletic Conference

This league has become a regular in the play-in round, and with four teams hoping to become #16 seeds this year, you can expect the SWAC to supply a participant in the First Four this season.

 

Texas Southern 9-1/11-10 plays at Jackson State 9-2/13-10 tomorrow.  Mississippi Valley State 8-3/9-15 is much better than their overall won-loss record indicates, and Alabama A&M 7-4/10-10 has the talent to win three games in three days.

 

Mississippi Valley has played possibly the most difficult out of conference slate of any team in the SWAC in decades.  Included in their pre-conference schedule were: Georgia, St. Mary’s, BYU, Butler, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Marquette.

 

The SWAC tournament takes place in Garland, Texas, (A Dallas-Ft. Worth suburb).  The top two seeds get a day off if they win their first game.

 

Summit League

Flying under the radar screen, Oakland 12-1/17-9, has the talent to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.  The Golden Grizzlies are a high-scoring team that almost won at Michigan State and won at Tennessee.  Big man Keith Benson averages 17.3 points and 9.9 rebounds a game.  He went for 22 and 22 against Austin Peay.

 

IUPUI 9-4/15-11 ended Oakland’s 10-game winning streak with a 100-88 win.  The Jaguars gave Ohio State a major scare earlier this season in Columbus.  After going into halftime tied at 35-35, the Jags went on a run and took a 50-41 lead until Jared Sullinger went wild and finished with 40 points.

 

IPFW 9-4/16-8 took Xavier to overtime and narrowly lost at Cincinnati in their next game.  The Mastodons play at Oakland tomorrow.

 

Oral Roberts 9-5/12-14 and South Dakota State 8-6/16-9 represent the best of the rest.  SDSU averages 82 points per game and benefits from the conference tournament being held in-state in Sioux Falls.

 

Sunbelt Conference

This looks to be a down year in the SBC, and we cannot see any of the teams having a chance to win a first round NCAA Tournament game (unless, of course they fall to a #16 First Four participant).

 

In the East, Florida Atlantic 10-2/18-8 has already surpassed their win total of last year.  The Owls are the only team in the league with a winning record away from home, so that bodes well for tournament play.  FAU has already swept second place Middle Tennessee 8-4/13-12, but the Blue Raiders are the hot team in the league riding a four-game winning streak.

 

In the West, Denver 8-3/12-12 has gone 10-3 since opening at 2-9.  The Pioneers play the old Princeton offense under former Princeton star Joe Scott.

 

Arkansas State 8-4/14-13 is 11-0 at home and has won four games in a row.  They beat Denver 60-35 in Jonesboro, but they lost 74-36 at Denver.

 

Louisiana-Lafayette 6-5/9-14 has responded well to Coach Bob Marlin, who made Sam Houston a perennial contender in the Southland.

 

North Texas 5-5/16-7 has been a major disappointment.  The Mean Green was supposed to run away with the league title this year.

 

The Sunbelt Conference Tournament takes place once again in Hot Springs, Arkansas.  Unique to this conference is that they utilize two gymnasiums due to the fact that the men and women both play at the same time.  The two gyms are close enough apart so that fans can make it back and forth in time to not miss any of the action.

 

These 18 conferences make up 18 of the 68 teams that will go to the NCAA Tournament.  What about the other 50?

 

Let’s start with five conferences that have a possibility of sending two teams to the Dance but will only send one if the favorite wins.  The Colonial (George Mason), Conference USA (Alabama-Birmingham), Missouri Valley (Missouri State), West Coast Conference (St. Mary’s), and WAC (Utah State) will send an extra team if there is an upset.  Let’s say that two of the five favorites will fail to win their conference tournament.  That means seven teams from these five conferences will get a bid.

 

That leaves us with 43 teams.  From this number, let us give you the 23 teams that have already become locks for the tournament: Duke, North Carolina, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arizona, Kentucky, Florida, BYU, San Diego State, and Xavier are sure things.

 

That leaves 20 teams to get invitations.  We have a list of about 30-35 teams to form our first bubble.

 

Those teams include:

Temple, Richmond, and Duquesne from the Atlantic 10.

 

Boston College, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia Tech from the ACC.

 

Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor from the Big 12.

 

St. John’s, Cincinnati, and Marquette from the Big East.

 

Illinois, Minnesota, and Michigan State from the Big Ten.

 

Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth from the Colonial.

 

Memphis and Southern Miss from CUSA.

 

Wichita State and Northern Iowa from the Missouri Valley.

 

UNLV, Colorado State, and New Mexico from the Mountain West.

 

Washington and UCLA from the Pac-10.

 

Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss from the SEC.

 

 

A PiRate Bracketnomics Criteria Score For Two Teams

 

Today, we will look at two of the one-bid conference teams to see if they have a legitimate chance to pull off an upset.

 

For comparison purposes, the average Strength of Schedule for the top 50 teams is about .5880 or 58.8 points

 

1. Coastal Carolina 23-2 overall

Scoring Margin—15.9 points per game 5 pts

 

FG% Margin—9.9% 3 pts

 

Rebound Margin—7.5 3 pts

 

Turnover Margin—2.3 1 pt

 

Steals/G—7.4

 

R+T—11.58 5 pts

 

Strength of Schedule—.4608 or 46.1 points -12.7 pts

 

Total Score—4.3

 

This is a high enough score to win a first round game in the NCAA Tournament and compete for a Sweet 16 spot.  Of course, if the opponent has a negative R+T score, then CCU would be our favorite.

 

2. Cleveland State 21-5 overall

Scoring Margin—9.6 points per game 3 pts

 

FG% Margin—3.4% 0 pts

 

Rebound Margin—0.5 0 pts

 

Turnover Margin—2.9 1 pt

 

Steals/G—7.6

 

R+T—5.79 1 pt

 

Strength of Schedule–.5176 or 51.8 points (-7 pts)

 

Total Score—(-2)

 

Cleveland State would not be considered a legitimate threat to upset a big team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, unless their opponent has a negative R+T rating.

 

March 2, 2010

And They’re Off…

Let’s Start The Partying

 

It may feel like it’s mid-January in most of the nation, but the calendar doesn’t lie.  It’s time to start the sports reality show called “Big Dancing With The Stars; Trying Not To Be The Biggest Loser.”  Yes, the conference tournaments begin to tip-off tonight.

15 conferences begin tournament play in the next four days.  Let’s take a look at the brackets.

America East Conference

Site: Hartford, CT until the Championship Game.  Championship Game on the home court of the higher seed.

Late Note:#5 seed Binghamton has withdrawn from the conference tournament, making this an 8-team tournament that will now begin Saturday.

Saturday, March 6

G1-#1 Stony Brook (21-8) vs. #9 Albany (7-24)

G2-#4 Boston U (17-12) vs. #6 Hartford (8-21)

G3-#2 Vermont (22-9) vs. #8 Maryland-Balt. Co. (4-25)

G4-#3 Maine (19-10) vs. #7 New Hampshire (12-16)

Sunday, March 7

G5-Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner

G6-Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Saturday, March 13

Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner at higher seed’s home court

Boston U is the hot team as tournament play begins.  The Terriers have an easy first round game thanks to Binghamton pulling out.  Look for a very interesting semifinal match between BU and Stony Brook.

Look for New Hampshire to give Maine a great game and have a great shot at the upset.  Beating Vermont in the next round won’t happen.  The Catamounts have a clear path to the title game, and if Boston can upset Stony Brook, Vermont would host the title game.

Atlantic Sun Conference

Site: Macon, GA

Wednesday, March 3

G1-#1 Lipscomb (17-12) vs. #8 Kennesaw St. (12-19)

G2-#2 Jacksonville (18-11) vs. #7 North Florida (13-17)

Thursday, March 4

G3-#3 Belmont (19-11) vs. #6 Mercer (14-16)

G4-#4 Campbell (19-10) vs. #5 East Tennessee (17-14)

Friday, March 5

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Saturday, March 6

Semifinal Winners

Lipscomb won its last four games to earn a four-way tie for first.  The Bisons got the top-seed based on head to head results against the other three teams.  Their path to the championship game is not an easy one.  In the opening round, they face a Kennesaw team that gave them fits in both games, earning a split.  

Campbell has the most complete game of any team in this tournament, and they could be the team to beat from their number four seeding.  They also split with Lipscomb, and a possible semifinal match with the Bisons could be the game of the tournament.

Belmont and Jacksonville should handle their first round opponents, and in a semifinal match, the Dolphins have the upper hand when matching up.  A Jacksonville-Campbell final game would be interesting.  Both teams defended their home court in the regular season, winning by double digits.

Big Sky Conference

Site: All games played at higher seed

Saturday, March 6

#6 Portland State (12-17) at #3 Montana State (15-13)

#5 Northern Arizona (14-13) at #4 Montana (19-9)

Tuesday, March 9

Lower Remaining Seed at #1 Weber State (19-9)

Higher Remaining Seed at #2 Northern Colorado (24-6)

Wednesday, March 10

Lower Remaining Seed at Higher Remaining Seed

 

Big South Conference

Site: Quarterfinals at higher seed/Semifinals at Coastal Carolina/Finals at higher seed

Tuesday, March 2

G1-#8 VMI (10-18) at #1 Coastal Carolina (26-5)

G2-#7 Charleston Southern (13-16) at #2 Radford (18-11)

G3-#6 Liberty (15-15) at #3 Winthrop (16-13)

G4-#5 High Point (15-14) at #4 UNC-Asheville (14-15)

Thursday, March 4 (at Coastal Carolina)

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Friday, March 5

Lower Remaining Seed at Higher Remaining Seed

The top two teams are clearly the two best in this league, as they dispenses of all the competition coming down the stretch.  Radford has a dominating inside player capable of causing matchup problems for a good team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Keep an eye on Art Parakhouski, a 6-11 hulk from Belarus.  He makes Radford the favorite to meet Coastal Carolina for a great rubber match worth watching.

Colonial Athletic Association

Site: Richmond, VA

Friday, March 5

G1-#8 Towson (9-20) vs. #9 UNC-Wilmington (9-21)

G2-#5 Va. Commonwealth (20-8) vs. #12 Delaware (7-23)

G3-#7 Hofstra (18-13) vs. #10 Georgia State (12-19)

G4-#6 Drexel (16-15) vs. #11 James Madison (12-19)

Saturday, March 6

G5-#1 Old Dominion (23-8) vs. Game 1 Winner

G6-#4 George Mason (17-13) vs. Game 2 Winner

G7-#2 Northeastern (19-11) vs. Game 3 Winner

G8-#3 William & Mary (20-9) vs. Game 4 Winner

Sunday, March 7

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner

Monday, March 8

Semifinal Winners

There’s decent parity in this league, and any of the top seven seeds could emerge the victor.  Hofstra is the hottest team in the league, having finished the regular season with six consecutive wins and nine out of ten, including a double digit win at Northeastern.

Old Dominion has a road win against Georgetown this year, and the Monarchs would be a bubble team if they lost in the semifinals or finals.

Horizon League

Site: 1st Round at Higher Seed/All Others at Indianapolis

Tuesday, March 2

G1-#10 Youngstown (8-21) at #3 Green Bay (20-11)

G2-#9 Illinois-Chicago (8-21) at #4 Milwaukee (18-13)

G3-#8 Loyola (Chi) (14-15) at #5 Cleveland St. (15-16)

G4-#7 Detroit (18-13) at #6 Valparaiso (15-16)

Friday, March 5

G5-Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

G6-Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Saturday, March 6

Butler (26-4) vs. Game 6 Winner

Wright St. (19-11) vs. Game 5 Winner

Tuesday, March 9

Semifinal Winners

It’s all about Butler in this tournament.  The Bulldogs are going dancing win or lose, but they could move up to a number three seed by winning on March 9.  Detroit is the only team that gave Butler any trouble this year, so it could become interesting if the Titans beat Valpo, Green Bay, and Wright State to make it to the finals.

M A A C

Site: Albany, NY

Friday, March 5

G1-#7 Canisius (14-16) vs. #10 Marist (1-28)

G2-#8 Loyola (Md) (13-16) vs. #9 Manhattan (10-19)

Saturday, March 6

G3-#1 Siena (24-6) vs. Game 2 Winner

G4-#2 Fairfield (20-9) vs. Game 1 Winner

G5-#3 Iona (21-9) vs. #6 Niagara (17-14)

G6-#4 St. Peter’s (16-13) vs. #5 Rider (16-15)

Sunday, March 7

Game 3 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner

Monday, March 8

Semifinal Winners

Siena’s resume does not allow them a Mulligan in this tournament.  The Saints have no signature wins, and they got their hat handed to them in the Bracketbuster game against Butler.  Siena has to win this tournament or it’s the NIT for them this year.

Fairfield gave Siena two close ballgames this year, and it could be hard for the Saints to beat the Stags three times.  

Iona is flying under the radar.  The Gaels won nine in a row in midseason, and they have the talent to make it to Monday night’s game.

Missouri Valley Conference

Site: St. Louis (Arch Madness)

Thursday, March 4

G1-#7 Missouri State (19-11) vs. #10 Evansville (9-20)

G2-#8 Drake (13-18) vs. #9 Southern Illinois (15-14)

Friday, March 5

G3-#1 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. Game 2 Winner

G4-#2 Wichita State (23-8) vs. Game 1 Winner

G5-#3 Illinois State (21-9) vs. #6 Indiana St. (17-13)

G6-#4 Creighton (16-14) vs. #5 Bradley (15-14)

Saturday, March 6

Game 3 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner

Sunday, March 7

Semifinal Winners

Northern Iowa won the regular season title by three games, but don’t consider the Panthers an overwhelming favorite.  A good case could be made for any of the top five teams, and nobody wants to play Ninth-seeded Southern Illinois.

This will be a great tournament, and you should make it a point to watch these games if you have access. 

UNI is a pretty safe bet to garner an at-large bid if they don’t win the automatic bid.  Wichita State was once in the discussion for an at-large bid after a 16-2 start, but the shockers finished 7-6.

Northeast Conference

Site: All Games Played at Higher Seed

Thursday, March 4

G1-#8 Monmouth (12-18) at #1 Quinnipiac (21-8)

G2-#7 Cent. Connecticut (12-17) at #2 Robert Morris (20-11)

G3-#6 St. Francis (Pa) (11-18) at #3 Mt. St. Mary’s (15-14)

G4-#5 Fairleigh Dickinson (11-20) at #4 Long Island (13-16)

Sunday, March 7

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner at higher seed

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner at higher seed

Wednesday, March 10

Semifinal Winners at higher seed

Rarely is the number three seed considered the favorite, but in the NEC, Mt. St. Mary’s must be considered just that.  The Mountaineers won their final 10 games, which included victories over the two top seeds.  MSM has been in the tournament title game the last two years, winning in 2008.  Point Guard Jeremy Goode cut down on his turnovers down the stretch and played more like he was capable of playing.  Look for the 5-9 hotshot to play his best and guide the Mountaineers back to the Championship Game, where they are liable to face Quinnipiac.

Bobcat star James Feldeine was held to just four points in the last meeting with MSM; he will be ready for blood in a title match.

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: 1st Round at higher seed/All Others at Nashville

Tuesday, March 2

G1-#8 Tennessee State (9-22) at #1 Murray State (27-4)

G2-#7 Jacksonville St. (11-18) at #2 Morehead St. (21-9)

G3-#6 Tennessee Tech (14-16) at #3 Austin Peay (17-14)

G4-#5 East. Kentucky (20-11) at #4 East. Illinois (18-11)

Friday, March 5

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Saturday, March 6

Semifinal Winners

Murray State won 27 games during the regular season, but even if the Racers lose in the title game, they will fall to the NIT.

Morehead State is the defending OVC Champion, and the Eagles have the league’s top player in Kenneth Faried (16.8 ppg/13.0 rpg).  Morehead won 17 of 20 down the stretch including a win over Murray St.

Austin Peay is always a force to be reckoned with in this tournament.  The Governors have been a regular in the championship round.

Patriot League

Site: All Games Played at Higher Seed

Wednesday, March 3

G1-#8 Army (14-14) at #1 Lehigh (19-10)

G2-#7 Holy Cross (8-21) at #2 Bucknell (14-16)

G3-#6 Colgate (10-18) at #3 Lafayette (17-12)

G4-#5 Navy (13-16) at #4 American (10-19)

Sunday, March 7

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner at Higher Seed

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner at Higher Seed

Friday, March 12

Semifinal Winners at Higher Seed

A month ago, Bucknell stood at 6-14 and looked like a possible 20-game loser.  The Bison turned it around and rebounded to go 8-2 down the stretch with a win over Lehigh.  One of the two losses was also to Lehigh, so this does not make Bucknell the favorite.

There is no clear-cut favorite in this league.  In fact, sixth-seeded Colgate has been playing as well an any team as the tournament opens.  The Raiders had Lehigh on the ropes a couple weeks ago before falling short at the end.

Southern Conference

Site: Charlotte

Friday, March 5

G1-#3N Chattanooga (14-17) vs. #6S Ga. Southern (9-22)

G2-#4N UNC-Greensboro (7-22) vs. #5S Furman (13-16)

G3-#3S Davidson (16-14) vs. #6N Elon (8-22)

G4-#4S Citadel (15-15) vs. #5N Samford (11-19)

Saturday, March 6

G5-#1N Appalachian St. (20-11) vs. Game 4 Winner

G6-#1S Wofford (23-8) vs. Game 2 Winner

G7-#2N Western Carolina (21-10) vs. Game 3 Winner

G8-#2S Charleston (20-10) vs. Game 1 Winner

Sunday, March 7

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner

Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner

Monday, March 8

Semifinal Winners

With Davidson just a middle of the pack team, the Socon Tournament becomes a wide-open race.  The top four seeds all have the talent to run the table, but Wofford must be considered the favorite.  The Terriers won their final 10 games and 19 of 21, after starting 4-6.

Keep an eye on College of Charleston.  Coach Bobby Cremins has talent at the guard spot, and he knows how to get to the Big Dance.

Summit League

Site: Sioux Falls, SD

Saturday, March 6

G1-#1 Oakland (23-8) vs. #8 Mo.-Kansas City (12-17)

G2-#2 I U P U I (22-9) vs. #7 Western Illinois (13-16)

Sunday, March 7

G3-#3 Oral Roberts (19-12) vs. #6 N. Dakota St. (11-17)

G4-#4 S. Dakota St. (14-15) vs. #5 I P F W (15-14)

Monday, March 8

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Tuesday, March 9

Semifinal Winners

Oakland’s path to the Championship Game is not all that easy.  Last place UMKC was no pushover, and the Grizzlies didn’t win all that convincingly in the regular season.  A possible semifinal match with the host team, South Dakota State, will be even harder.  The Jackrabbits have the best backcourt in the league, but they are a little weak inside.  That’s where Oakland is strongest with 6-11 center Keith Benson, the league’s top player.

IUPUI won 12 of its final 14 games and blew Oakland off the floor by 24 points.  The Jaguars have an easier path to the title game.

Sunbelt Conference

Site: Hot Springs, AR (in two separate gyms)

Saturday, March 6

G1-#4 Western Kentucky (19-12) VS. #13 New Orleans (8-21)

G2-#5 Arkansas St. (16-13) vs. #12 Ark.-Little Rock (8-21)

G3-#6 Denver (17-12) vs. #11 Florida Int’l (7-24)

G4-#7 UL-Lafayette (13-16) vs. #10 UL-Monroe (11-18)

G5-#8 Fla. Atlantic (14-15) vs. #9 South Alabama (16-14)

Sunday, March 7

G6-#1 Troy (18-11) vs. Game 5 Winner

G7-#2 North Texas (21-8) vs. Game 4 Winner

G8-#3 Middle Tennessee (19-12) vs. Game 3 Winner

G9-Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner

Monday, March 8

Game 6 Winner vs. Game 9 Winner

Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner

Tuesday, March 9

Semifinal Winners

The top four seeds enter this tournament on high notes, but none are higher than Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers went 7-7 during the 14-games missed to injury by beefy forward Sergio Kerusch.  WKU defeated Vanderbilt, Murray State, and Mississippi State in the pre-conference schedule, and they could be headed back to the Big Dance for the third year in a row, as they ride a six-game winning streak entering the tournament.

North Texas comes into this tournament on an eight-game winning streak.  The Mean Green edged WKU in overtime during the time Kerusch was out.

Arkansas State is coming into this tournament as a darkhorse, but watch out for Red Wolves.  Former LSU coach John Brady’s squad swept North Texas; both wins were by double digits.  

West Coast Conference

Site: Las Vegas

Friday, March 5

G1-#5 Loyola Marymount (16-14) vs. #8 Pepperdine (7-23)

G2-#6 San Diego (10-20) vs. #7 Santa Clara (11-20)

Saturday, March 6

G3-#3 Portland (19-9) vs. Game 2 Winner

G4-#4 San Francisco (12-17) vs. Game 1 Winner

Sunday, March 7

Gonzaga (24-5) vs. Game 4 Winner

St. Mary’s (24-5) vs. Game 3 Winner

Monday, March 8

Semifinal Winners

For once, this is a three-team race.  Gonzaga swept St. Mary’s and Portland and will more than likely have to face one of the two for the championship.  It’s hard to beat a good team three times in a row, but the Bulldogs have the talent to do so.

St. Mary’s and Portland split a pair of really tight games, so there is no clear cut favorite if they meet in the Semifinals.  The Gaels benefit from getting an extra day off.

If any team from the first day of play has a chance, it is Loyola Marymount.  The Lions beat Gonzaga and Portland in February.  First year coach Max Good took a team picked to be last in the league and brought them home at 7-7 in WCC play.

March 16, 2008

A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 16, 2008, 9th Update (Final Update)

 

A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments

March 16, 2008, 9th Update (Final Update)

(NCAA Tournament Coverage Begins Monday)

Conference Tournament Results through Saturday, March 15, 2008

For many years, yours truly was an active member of the media, be it in radio, television, or print journalism.  Over the course of that career, I never once suffered from writer’s block or even had to think for more than a few seconds to decide what angle I would pursue in an article.

If I were still writing for print media or reporting in some form of broadcast media, I would have been lost for words to put something unique on the events of the last 36 hours in the college basketball world.  Sure, I could have given the 5 W’s and 1 H for any of the events, but unless I was stringing for the Associated Press, it wouldn’t have been what I hoped it could have been.

My only thought when all the events began to occur was a famous quote that has erroneously been attributed as Chinese.  “May you live in interesting times,” is supposed to be a Chinese curse for some poor schlemiel to endure many chaotic and tumultuous events in his lifetime. 

What has happened at the Southeastern Conference since Friday night is just another minor event of the 21st Century when compared to the many true miseries throughout the world.  However, for those people who look forward to this annual three-week “holiday,” it’s like having a relative losing his dinner at the Thanksgiving table.  You can still eat more turkey, but it just doesn’t look as appetizing as it did prior to the incident.

For the one or two people reading this who do not know what I speak of, an EF-2 tornado struck the Georgia Dome in Atlanta late Friday night during the closing minutes of the Southeastern Conference Tournament.  Alabama and Mississippi State were in the final couple of minutes of overtime, when parts of the dome roof took direct hits, and debris littered the floor while several parts of the building shook.  The game was halted for more than an hour, and when play resumed, Mississippi State pulled out a close victory.  Kentucky and Georgia were supposed to play 25 minutes after that game, but after several minutes, SEC and Georgia Dome officials cancelled the game, believing correctly that the building was not safe.  The fans were given notice that the game was cancelled, but they were told they could not leave the building.  Eventually, they were allowed to leave and went outside to find what one reporter called “conditions looking like a war zone.”  Some fans discovered they no longer had automobiles.  Some fans discovered they no longer had accommodations at their hotel.  Many stayed out all night, and when the sun rose Saturday morning, they discovered that they had no access to the rest of the tournament.

The SEC moved the remainder of the tournament to Georgia Tech’s tiny coliseum.  They mandated that Georgia and Kentucky would play at noon on Saturday, and the winner would have to play a second game Saturday night (something that the SEC Tournament did with their semifinals and finals until 1952).

That’s just where the weird events began.  Georgia finished dead last in the SEC this year.  Head Coach Dennis Felton was on the type of bubble he didn’t want to end up on-his job status was up in the air.  To add to the difficulties, he has only eight scholarship players on his roster, and his team played a late overtime game in the first round Thursday night.

If you haven’t heard, Georgia won two games Saturday.  The Bulldogs defeated Kentucky in the early afternoon, and then they knocked off Mississippi State a few hours later.  That moves Georgia into the Championship Game of the tournament against Arkansas.  Georgia has a 16-16 record entering today’s title game.  They must either win and go to the Big Dance, or lose and end their season.  Oh, and one more thing:  Star player Sundiata Gaines suffered a hip pointer in the Mississippi State game, and he will be playing on a gimpy leg today. 

That’s not the only news.  More conference upsets have burst some additional bubbles.  A 20-loss team in a mid-major conference has won an automatic bid, and an automatic bid was doled out to a team that won in triple overtime.  Here’s a look at each conference. 

Previous Concluded Tournaments

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#4 East Tennessee 81 #5 Lipscomb 74

#6 Gardner-Webb 82  #3 Stetson 63

#2 Jacksonville 65  #7 Mercer 57

#1 Belmont 75  #8 Campbell 66

Semifinals

Jacksonville 89 Gardner-Webb 80

Belmont 69 East Tennessee 65

Saturday, March 8

Championship

Belmont 79  Jacksonville 61

Automatic Qualifier: Belmont 25-8  Avg. RPI 76.3

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Big Sky                    

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#4 Idaho State 67  #5 Montana 65

#3 Weber State 65  #6 Montana State 49

Tuesday, March 11 @ Portland, OR

Semifinals

#1 Portland State 72  Idaho State 61

#2 Northern Arizona 75  Weber State 70

Wednesday, March 12 @ Portland, OR

Championship Game

Portland State 67  Northern Arizona 51

Automatic Qualifier: Portland State 23-9  Avg. RPI 87.3

Portland State will pose problems for a first-round opponent not used to playing against a team that overplays the passing lanes.  If the Vikings snatch away double figure steals, they can compete in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  PSU will have problems with a physical, inside muscle team that knows how to take care of the ball, like a Michigan State.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Big South

Opening Round

#1 UNC-Asheville 87  #8 Charleston Southern 63

#4 Liberty 103  #5 VMI 88

#2 Winthrop 76  #7 Radford 45

#3 High Point 59  #6 Coastal Carolina 56

Semifinals

UNC-Asheville 75  Liberty 57

Winthrop 61  High Point 53

Saturday, March 8 @ Asheville, NC

Championship Game

Winthrop 66  UNC-Asheville 48

Automatic Qualifier: Winthrop 22-11  Avg. RPI 106.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Colonial Athletic Association

All Games Played At Richmond, VA (Virginia Commonwealth host team)

#9 Towson State 81  #8 Towson State 66

#5 William & Mary 58 #12 Georgia State 57

#6 Delaware 60  #11 Drexel 51

#7 Northeastern 73 #10 James Madison 59

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Virginia Commonwealth 57  Towson State 46

William & Mary 63  #4 Old Dominion 60

#3 UNC-Wilmington 82  Delaware 59

#2 George Mason 63  Northeastern 52

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

William & Mary 56  Virginia Commonwealth 54

George Mason 53  UNC-Wilmington 41

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

George Mason 68  William & Mary 59

Automatic Qualifier: George Mason 23-10  Avg. RPI 59.5

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                      Virginia Commonwealth 24-7  RPI Avg.: 55 [Still needs help]

Horizon League              

All Games Played At Indianapolis (Butler host team)

Opening Round

#3 Wright State 60  #10 Detroit 37

#6 Valparaiso 75  #7 UW-Green Bay 67

#4 Illinois-Chicago 70  #9 Youngstown State 59

#8 Loyola (Chi.) 57  #5 UW-Milwaukee 51

Quarterfinals

Valparaiso 72  Wright State 67

Illinois-Chicago 60 Loyola (Chi.) 49

Saturday, March 8

Semifinals

#2 Cleveland State 78  Valparaiso 73

#1 Butler 66  Illinois-Chicago 50

Tuesday, March 11

Championship

Butler 70  Cleveland State 55

Automatic Qualifier: Butler 29-3  Avg. RPI 16.8

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None (Cleveland State is just below the Bubble and should get a bid to the NIT or the new CBI)

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

All Games Played At Albany, NY (Siena host team)

Opening Round

#8 Manhattan 73  #9 St. Peter’s 59

#10 Canisius 64  #7 Iona 59

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Siena 66  Manhattan 58

#4 Loyola (Md.) 64  #5 Fairfield 59

#2 Rider 75  Canisius 71

#6 Marist 66  #3 Niagara 62

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Siena 65  Loyola (Md.) 63

Rider 76  Marist 71

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

Siena 74  Rider 53

Automatic Qualifier: Siena 22-10  Avg. RPI 66.8

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Missouri Valley @ St. Louis (Arch Madness)

Opening Round

#8 Indiana State 71  #9 Wichita State 67

#7 Missouri State 69 #10 Evansville 46

Quarterfinals

#1 Drake 68  Indiana State 46

#4 Creighton 74  #5 Bradley 70

#2 Illinois State 63  Missouri State 58

#6 Northern Iowa 54  #3 Southern Illinois 49

Saturday, March 8

Semifinals

Drake 75 Creighton 67

Illinois State 56 Northern Iowa 42

Sunday, March 9

Championship

Drake 79  Illinois State 49

Automatic Qualifier: Drake 28-4  Avg. RPI 10.3

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                      Illinois State 23-9  RPI avg. 34 [Beginning to look safe]

                                    Creighton 21-10  RPI avg. 46.3 [added to bubble watch due to upsets]

Northeast

Quarterfinal

#1 Robert Morris 64  #8 Monmouth 50

#4 Mt. St. Mary’s 80  #5 Quinnipiac 70

#2 Wagner 71  #7 Long Island 62

#3 Sacred Heart 84  #6 Central Connecticut State 71

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Mt. St. Mary’s 83  Robert Morris 65

Sacred Heart 55  Wagner 49

Wednesday, March 12

Championship

Mt. St. Mary’s 68  Sacred Heart 55

Automatic Qualifier: Mount St. Mary’s 18-14  Avg. RPI 157

The Mount won its three tournament games by an average score of 77-63 thanks to great shooting and the ability to hustle on the boards.  That worked against the NEC, but it won’t be enough to get past the first round in the Big Dance.  This is a #16-seed that will make a quick exit.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Ohio Valley Conference

Quarterfinals @ Higher Seed

#1 Austin Peay 76  #8 Eastern Kentucky 51

#4 UT-Martin 101  #5 Samford 94  3ot

#2 Murray State 77  #7 Tennessee Tech 74

#6 Tennessee State 68  #3 Morehead State 61

Semifinals @ Nashville

Austin Peay 78  UT-Martin 77

Tennessee State 83 Murray State 75

Saturday, March 8

Championship

Austin Peay 82 Tennessee State 64

Automatic Qualifier: Austin Peay 24-10  Avg. RPI 82

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Southern Conference

All Games Played At Charleston, SC (College of Charleston host team)

Opening Round

#8 Wofford 58  #9 Western Carolina 49

#7 Elon 52  #10 Furman 37

#6 Charleston 66  #11 Citadel 48

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Davidson 82 Wofford 49

#5 UNC-Greensboro 63  #4 Appalachian State 46

Elon 60  #2 Chattanooga 57

Coll. of Charleston 87  #3 Georgia Southern 73

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Davidson 82 UNCG 52

Elon 75  Charleston 61

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

Davidson 65  Elon 49

Automatic Qualifier: Davidson 26-6  Avg. RPI 30.3

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Summit League @ Tulsa (Oral Roberts host team)                  

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 84 #8 Centenary 56

#2 IUPUI 69  #7 Missouri-Kansas City 65

Sunday, March 9

Quarterfinals

#5 IPFW 66  #4 Southern Utah 62

#3 Oakland 80 #6 Western Illinois 66

Monday, March 10

Semifinals

Oral Roberts 58 IPFW 42

IUPUI 80 Oakland 65

Tuesday, March 11

Championship

Oral Roberts 71  IUPUI 64

Automatic Qualifier: Oral Roberts 24-8  Avg. RPI 49

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None (IUPUI’s RPI is too low for consideration)

Sunbelt Conference                   

1st Round

#8 New Orleans 65  #9 Denver 60

#4 Middle Tennessee 74  #13 Louisiana Monroe 69

#12 Troy 70  #5 Louisiana Lafayette 60

#6 North Texas 85  #11 Arkansas State 63

#7 Florida Atlantic 91  #10 Florida International 64

Sunday, March 9 @ Mobile, AL

Quarterfinals

South Alabama 81  New Orleans 77

Middle Tennessee 65  Troy 59

Western Kentucky 84  North Texas 70

Arkansas Little Rock 66  Florida Atlantic 60

Monday, March 10 @ Mobile, AL

Semifinals

Middle Tennessee 82  South Alabama 73

Western Kentucky 70 Arkansas-Little Rock 55

Tuesday, March 11 @ Mobile, AL

Championship

Western Kentucky 67  Middle Tennessee 57

Automatic Qualifier: Western Kentucky 27-6  Avg. RPI 37.3

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                      South Alabama (Avg. RPI 37.3) [Looking Good after yesterday’s upsets]

 West Coast Conference

All Games Played At San Diego (San Diego host team)

Opening Round

#5 San Francisco 79  # 8 Loyola Marymount 60

#6 Pepperdine 50  #7 Portland 48  ot

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#4 Santa Clara 51  San Francisco 50

#3 San Diego 75  Pepperdine 55

Sunday, March 9

#1 Gonzaga 52  Santa Clara 48

San Diego 75  #2 St. Mary’s 69  2ot

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

San Diego 69 Gonzaga 62

Automatic Qualifier: San Diego 21-13  Avg. RPI 93.3

At-Large Teams:      0, 1 or 2 (Gonzaga & St. Mary’s)

Bubble:                      St. Mary’s 25-6  Avg. RPI 36.5 [Should be safe thanks to Pac-10 teams losing]

                                    Gonzaga 25-7  Avg. RPI 30 [Absolute certainty]

Ivy League Champion

Automatic Qualifier: Cornell 22-5  Avg. RPI 64.5

Recent Tournaments Concluded

America East

1st Three Rounds At Binghamton, NY.  Championship Game At Higher Seed

Opening Round

#8 Stony Brook 73  vs. #9 Maine 65  ot

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Md. Balt. Co. 76  Stony Brook 60

#4 Vermont 65  #5 Binghamton 57

#2 Hartford 68  #7 New Hampshire 65

#6 Boston U. 68  #3 Albany 64  ot

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Md. Balt. Co. 73  Vermont 64

Hartford 59  Boston U. 52

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Maryland-Baltimore Co. 82  Hartford 65

Automatic Qualifier: Maryland-Baltimore County 24-8  Avg. RPI 87.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Atlantic Coast  @ Charlotte, NC

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#9 Florida State 70  #8 Wake Forest 60

#5 Miami 63  #12 North Carolina State 50

#7 Georgia Tech 94  #10 Virginia 76

#11 Boston College 71  #6 Maryland 68

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 North Carolina 82  Florida State 70

#4 Virginia Tech 63  Miami 49

#2 Duke 82  Georgia Tech 70

#3 Clemson 82  Boston College 48

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

North Carolina 68  Virginia Tech 66

Clemson 78  Duke 74

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

North Carolina 31-2  vs. Clemson 24-8

At-large Teams:       3, 4, or 5 (UNC-2, Duke-6, Clem-19.5, Miami-34.8)        

Bubble:                      Virginia Tech (Avg RPI 54.5),  Florida State ( Avg RPI 59.3)

Atlantic 10  @ Atlantic City, NJ

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Dayton 63  St. Louis 62  ot

#5 St. Joseph’s 80 #12 Fordham 62

#7 LaSalle 82  #10 Duquesne 79

#6 Charlotte 75  #11 Rhode Island 73

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Xavier 74  Dayton 65

 St. Joseph’s 61 #4 Richmond 47

#2 Temple 84  LaSalle 75

Charlotte 69  #3 Massachusetts 65

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

St. Joseph’s 61  Xavier 53

Temple 60  Charlotte 45

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Temple 69  St. Joseph’s 64

Automatic Qualifier: Temple 21-12  Avg. RPI

At-large Teams:       1 or 2 (Xavier [9 RPI] for sure

Bubble:                      U Mass (43.5 RPI), Dayton (great RPI Avg. of 33), St. Joe’s (42.5 RPI)

Big East  @ Madison Square Garden in NYC

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Villanova 82  #9 Syracuse 63

#5 West Virginia 58  #12 Providence 53

#7 Pittsburgh 70  #10 Cincinnati 64

#6 Marquette 67  #11 Seton Hall 54

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Georgetown 82  Villanova 63

West Virginia 78  #4 Connecticut 72

Pittsburgh 76  #2 Louisville 69 ot

Marquette 89  #3 Notre Dame 79

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Georgetown 72  West Virginia 55

Pittsburgh 68  Marquette 61

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Pittsburgh 74  Georgetown 65

Automatic Qualifier: Pittsburgh 26-9  Avg. RPI 15.8

At-large Teams:       6 or 7 (G’town-7.8, UL-13.3, ND-27.5, UConn-19.3, WVU-29.3, Marq.-22)

Bubble:                      Villanova (avg. RPI 51) [It looks iffy for the Wildcats-50-50]

Big 10  @ Indianapolis, IN

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#9 Michigan 55  #8 Iowa 47

#10 Illinois 64  #7 Penn State 63

#6 Minnesota 55  #11 Northwestern 52

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 Wisconsin 51  Michigan 34

#4 Michigan State 67  #5 Ohio State 60

 Illinois 74  #2 Purdue 67 ot

Minnesota 59  Indiana 58

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

Wisconsin 65  Michigan State 63

Illinois 54  Minnesota 50

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

Wisconsin 28-4  vs. Illinois 16-18

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (Wisconsin-11.5, Purdue-45, Indiana-22.5, Michigan State-14.5)          

Bubble:                      Ohio State-47.3

Big 12  @ Kansas City

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#9 Oklahoma State 76  #8 Texas Tech 72

#12 Colorado 91  #5 Baylor 84  2ot

#7 Nebraska 61  #10 Missouri 56

#6 Texas A&M 60  #11 Iowa State 47

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 Texas 66  Oklahoma State 59

#4 Oklahoma 54  Colorado 49

#2 Kansas 64  Nebraska 54

 Texas A&M 63  #3 Kansas State 60

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

Texas 77  Oklahoma 49

Kansas 77  Texas A&M 71

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

Kansas 30-3  vs. Texas 28-5

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (Texas-5, Kansas-6.8, Oklahoma-28.3)         

Bubble:                      Baylor-43.8, Kansas State-49.5, Texas A&M-40.3

Big West Tournament  @ Anaheim, CA

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#5 UC-Irvine 77  #8 Long Beach State 63

#7 UC-Riverside 62  Cal Poly 54

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#3 Cal State Fullerton 81  UC-Riverside 69

UC-Irvine 57  #4 Pacific 56

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

UC-Irvine 55  #1 UC Santa Barbara 50

Cal State Fullerton 83  #2 Cal State Northridge 68 

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Cal State Fullerton 81  UC-Irvine 66

Automatic Qualifier: Cal State Fullerton 24-8  Avg RPI 80.5

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None

Conference USA  @ Memphis

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#5 Southern Miss. 59  #12 Rice 50

#9 Tulane 48  #8 Marshall 47

#7 Tulsa 66  #10 East Carolina 49

#6 UTEP 71  #11 SMU 49

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Memphis 75  Tulane 56

Southern Mississippi 68  #4 Central Florida 62

Tulsa 78  #2 Ala.-Birmingham 68 ot

UTEP 80  #3 Houston 77

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Memphis 69  Southern Miss. 53

Tulsa 64  UTEP 62  ot

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Memphis 77  Tulsa 51

Automatic Qualifier: Memphis 33-1  Avg. RPI 3

At-large Teams:       0  

Bubble:                      None

Mid-American Conference @ Cleveland

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Toledo 52 #9 Bowling Green 48

#5 Miami (O) 69  #12 Buffalo 68

#7 Eastern Michigan 59  #10 Ball State 55

#6 Central Michigan 83  #11 Northern Illinois 71

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Kent State 77  Toledo 57

Miami (O) 74  #4 Ohio U 61

#2 Western Michigan 70  Eastern Michigan 61

#3 Akron 81  Central Michigan 60

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Kent State 49  Miami (O) 47

Akron 73  Western Michigan 62

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Kent State 74  Akron 55

Automatic Qualifier: Kent State 28-6  Avg. RPI 22.5

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None

MEAC @ Raleigh, NC

Tuesday, March 11

Opening Round

#7 Coppin State 55  #10 Howard 54

#8 South Carolina State 78  #9 Bethune Cookman 69

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#6 Florida A&M 70  Maryland Eastern Shore 61

Quarterfinal Round

Coppin State 75  Hampton 74  ot

Morgan State 77 South Carolina State 68

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinal Round

#3 Norfolk State 69  Florida A&M 61

#4 Delaware State 64  #5 North Carolina A&T 62

Friday, March 14

Semifinal Round

Morgan State 61  Delaware State 55

Coppin State 67  Norfolk State 65

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Coppin State 62  Morgan State 60

Automatic Qualifier: Coppin State 16-20  Avg. RPI 224.3 (I smell play-in round)

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None

Mountain West  @ Las Vegas

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#9 Colorado State 68  #8 Wyoming 63

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 BYU 89  Colorado State 62

#4 San Diego State 53  #5 Air Force 49

#2 UNLV 89  #7 TCU 88

#6 Utah 82  #3 New Mexico 80 ot

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

BYU 63  San Diego State 54

UNLV 61  Utah 55

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

UNLV 76  BYU 61

Automatic Qualifier: UNLV 26-7  Avg. RPI 23.8

At-large Teams:       1 BYU (Avg. RPI 25.5)

Bubble:                      New Mexico (Avg. RPI 59) [Almost assuredly out of contention]

Pac-10  @ The Staples Center in Los Angeles

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#9 California 84  #8 Washington 81

#7 Arizona 87 #10 Oregon State 56

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 UCLA 88  California 66

#4 Southern Cal 59  #5 Arizona State 55

#2 Stanford 75  Arizona 64

#3 Washington State 75  Oregon 70

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

UCLA 57  Southern Cal 54

Stanford 75  Washington State 68

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

UCLA 67  Stanford 64

Automatic Qualifier: UCLA 31-3  Avg. RPI 4.5

At-large Teams:       3 or 4 (Stanford-14.8, Washington State-20.5, Southern Cal-29.3)

Bubble:                      Arizona-38.5 , Oregon-57.3  Arizona State-79.3

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 American 62  #8 Holy Cross 60

#5 Army 64  #4 Lehigh 61 ot

#7 Bucknell 87  #2 Navy 86 3ot

#3 Colgate 76  #6 Lafayette 74

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

American  72 Army 60

Colgate 54  Bucknell 40

Friday, March 14

Championship

American 52  Colgate 46

Automatic Qualifier: American 21-11  Avg. RPI 91.8

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Southeastern  @ Atlanta

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#5E South Carolina 77  #4W LSU 73

#3E Vanderbilt 93  #6W Auburn 82

#5W Alabama 80  #4E Florida 69

#6E Georgia 97  #3W Ole Miss 95  ot

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1E Tennessee 28-3  vs. South Carolina 14-17

#2W Arkansas 20-10  vs. Vanderbilt 26-6

#1W Mississippi St. 21-9  vs. Alabama 17-15

#2E Kentucky 18-11  vs. Georgia 14-16 (Postponed until Saturday @ Noon EDT)

Saturday, March 15

Quarterfinals

Georgia 60  Kentucky 56 ot

Semifinals

Arkansas 92  Tennessee 91

Georgia 64  Mississippi State 60

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

Georgia 16-16  vs. Arkansas 22-10

At-large Teams:       5 (Tennessee-1, Miss. State-42.3, Kentucky-57.5, Arkansas-26.8, Vanderbilt-11.3)

Bubble:                      Florida-76, Ole Miss-48.8 (see ya in the NIT Gators and Rebels)

Southland  @ Katy, TX (near Houston)

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Stephen F. Austin 71  #8 Texas San Antonio 60

#5 Northwestern State 71  #4 Southeast Louisiana 51

#7 UT-Arlington 81  #2 Lamar 75

#3 Sam Houston State 64  McNeese State 62 ot

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Northwestern State 69  Stephen F. Austin 66

UT-Arlington 72  Sam Houston 66

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

Northwestern State 15-17  vs. Texas-Arlington 20-11

At-large Teams:       0 or 1  (99% chance it will be 0)

Bubble:                      Stephen F. Austin-68.8 (road wins at Oklahoma and San Diego not enough)

S W A C  @ Birmingham

Wednesday, March 12

Quarterfinals

#1 Alabama State 67  #8 Texas Southern 49

#2 Mississippi Valley 79  #7 Grambling 73

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#6 Arkansas Pine Bluff 72  Alabama A&M 59

#4 Jackson State 56  #5 Southern 55

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Jackson St.  77  Alabama State 72  ot

Mississippi Valley 70  Arkansas-Pine Bluff 59

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Mississippi Valley 59  Jackson State 58

Automatic Qualifier: Mississippi Valley 17-15  Avg. RPI 231 (the lowest in the field)

At-large Teams:       0         

Bubble:                      None

WAC @ Las Cruces, NM

Tuesday, March 11

Opening Round

#8 San Jose State 64  Louisiana Tech 62

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Utah State 85  San Jose State 65

#4 Boise State 80  Hawaii 74

#2 Nevada 64  #7 Fresno State 57

#3 New Mexico State 73  #6 Idaho 53

Friday, March 14

Semifinal Round

Boise State 88  Utah State 78

New Mexico St. 83  Nevada 75

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Boise State 107  New Mexico State 102  3ot

Automatic Qualifier: Boise State 25-8  Avg. RPI 88

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None

My Guess At The Field of 65

I am not the expert at predicting the field on Sunday morning like some I know, but I did get 64 of the 65 correct last year.  So, even though that was probably luck, here goes again this season with my best guess.  Of course, as of know, I am sure to get 26 correct, since that’s how many automatic bids have been earmed.

Clinched Automatic Berth in NCAA Tournament (26)

 1. Cornell (22-5)-Ivy League Champion

 2. Winthrop (22-11)-Big South Champion

 3. Austin Peay (24-10)-Ohio Valley Champion

 4. Belmont (25-8)-Atlantic Sun Champion

 5. Drake (28-4)-Missouri Valley Champion

 6. George Mason (23-10)-Colonial Champion

 7. Siena (22-10)-Metro Atlantic Champion

 8. Davidson (26-6)-Southern Champion

 9. San Diego (21-13)-West Coast Champion

10. Oral Roberts (24-8)-Summit Champion

11. Western Kentucky (27-6)-Sunbelt Champion

12. Butler (29-3)-Horizon Champion

13. Mount St. Mary’s (18-14)-Northeast Champion

14. Portland State (23-9)-Big Sky Champion

15. American U. (21-11)-Patriot Champion

16. Maryland-Baltimore County (24-8)-America East Champion

17. Memphis (33-1)-Conference USA Champion

18. Pittsburgh (26-9)-Big East Champion

19. Boise State (25-8)-Western Athletic Champion

20. Temple (21-12)-Atlantic 10 Champion

21. Kent State (28-6)-Mid-American Champion

22. Coppin State (16-20)-Mideastern Athletic Champion

23. U N L V (26-7)-Mountain West Champion

24. U C L A (31-3)-Pac-10 Champion

25. Mississippi Valley (17-15)-Southwestern Athletic Champion

26. Cal State Fullerton (24-8)-Big West Champion

5 Automatic and 34 at-large bids still to be determined

My Guess at the Five Remaining Automatic Bids

27. North Carolina

28. Wisconsin

29. Kansas

30. Arkansas

31. Northwestern State

My Guess at the 34 At-large Teams

The Safe Picks

32. Duke

33. Clemson

34. Miami (Fla.)

35. Michigan State

36. Indiana

37. Texas

38. Tennessee

39. Mississippi State

40. Vanderbilt

41. Xavier

42. Georgetown

43. Louisville

44. Notre Dame

45. Marquette

46. West Virginia

47. Connecticut

48. B Y U

49. Stanford

50. Southern Cal

51. Washington State

52. Arizona

53. South Alabama

54. Gonzaga

55. St. Mary’s

56. Illinois State

57. Texas A&M

58. Oklahoma

59. Purdue

The Bubble-Picking the Final Six

Arizona State-RPI is in the high 70’s-Out

Baylor-RPI is less than 45/9-7 record in a top 3 conf./win @ Notre Dame–IN

Creighton-RPI just below 45/1-5 vs. RPI top 50-just barely misses

Dayton-RPI in low 30’s/4-6 vs. top 50/11-7 vs. top 100/8-8 in A-10-can’t justify it

Florida State-7-9 ACC record-Lost any chance by not upsetting UNC

Kansas State-RPI over 45/10-6 in conf./win over Kansas–IN

Kentucky-It doesn’t matter how low of an RPI; the voting is biased–IN

Massachusetts-RPI is less than 45 but A-10 won’t get 4 teams–Out

New Mexico-Not really on the bubble now–Out

Ohio State-RPI is iffy/3-9 vs. top 50/lost 7 of final 11/10 wins in B10-IN but just barely

Ole Miss-7-9 SEC mark and first-round loss–Out

Oregon-RPI in 50’s/4-9 vs. top 50/tough schedule/9-9 in P10-Out (one of last 2 out)

St. Joseph‘s-RPI better than 45/4-7 vs. top 50/2 wins over Xavier–IN

South Alabama-RPI in 30’s/beat Miss St./Swept WKU–IN

Villanova-8th place tie in Big East is too much to overcome-Out but just barely

Virginia Commonwealth-Colonial is not good enough for 2 teams–Out

Virginia Tech-1-8 vs. top 50 will not get it done even in ACC–Out

So, here are the lucky bubblers:

60. Baylor

61. Kansas State

62. Kentucky

63. Ohio State

64. St. Joseph’s

65. South Alabama

Now, if either Illinois or Georgia win today, then who will have a burst bubble?  If one upset occurs, say bye bye to Ohio State.  If both teams pull off the upset, then out goes St. Joe’s.

March 14, 2008

A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 14, 2008, 8th Update

 

A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments

March 14, 2008, 8th Update

Conference Tournament Results through Thursday, March 13, 2008

Concluded Tournaments

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#4 East Tennessee 81 #5 Lipscomb 74

#6 Gardner-Webb 82  #3 Stetson 63

#2 Jacksonville 65  #7 Mercer 57

#1 Belmont 75  #8 Campbell 66

Semifinals

Jacksonville 89 Gardner-Webb 80

Belmont 69 East Tennessee 65

Saturday, March 8

Championship

Belmont 79  Jacksonville 61

Automatic Qualifier: Belmont 25-8  Avg. RPI 75.3

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None

Big Sky                    

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#4 Idaho State 67  #5 Montana 65

#3 Weber State 65  #6 Montana State 49

Tuesday, March 11 @ Portland, OR

Semifinals

#1 Portland State 72  Idaho State 61

#2 Northern Arizona 75  Weber State 70

Wednesday, March 12 @ Portland, OR

Championship Game

Portland State 67  Northern Arizona 51

Automatic Qualifier: Portland State 23-9  Avg. RPI 84.3

Portland State will pose problems for a first-round opponent not used to playing against a team that overplays the passing lanes.  If the Vikings snatch away double figure steals, they can compete in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  PSU will have problems with a physical, inside muscle team that knows how to take care of the ball, like a Michigan State.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None

Big South

Opening Round

#1 UNC-Asheville 87  #8 Charleston Southern 63

#4 Liberty 103  #5 VMI 88

#2 Winthrop 76  #7 Radford 45

#3 High Point 59  #6 Coastal Carolina 56

Semifinals

UNC-Asheville 75  Liberty 57

Winthrop 61  High Point 53

Saturday, March 8 @ Asheville, NC

Championship Game

Winthrop 66  UNC-Asheville 48

Automatic Qualifier: Winthrop 22-11  Avg. RPI 103.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None

Colonial Athletic Association

All Games Played At Richmond, VA (Virginia Commonwealth host team)

#9 Towson State 81  #8 Towson State 66

#5 William & Mary 58 #12 Georgia State 57

#6 Delaware 60  #11 Drexel 51

#7 Northeastern 73 #10 James Madison 59

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Virginia Commonwealth 57  Towson State 46

William & Mary 63  #4 Old Dominion 60

#3 UNC-Wilmington 82  Delaware 59

#2 George Mason 63  Northeastern 52

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

William & Mary 56  Virginia Commonwealth 54

George Mason 53  UNC-Wilmington 41

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

George Mason 68  William & Mary 59

Automatic Qualifier: George Mason 23-10  Avg. RPI 57.3

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                       Virginia Commonwealth 24-7  RPI Avg.: 57.8 [Still needs help]

Horizon League              

All Games Played At Indianapolis (Butler host team)

Opening Round

#3 Wright State 60  #10 Detroit 37

#6 Valparaiso 75  #7 UW-Green Bay 67

#4 Illinois-Chicago 70  #9 Youngstown State 59

#8 Loyola (Chi.) 57  #5 UW-Milwaukee 51

Quarterfinals

Valparaiso 72  Wright State 67

Illinois-Chicago 60 Loyola (Chi.) 49

Saturday, March 8

Semifinals

#2 Cleveland State 78  Valparaiso 73

#1 Butler 66  Illinois-Chicago 50

Tuesday, March 11

Championship

Butler 70  Cleveland State 55

Automatic Qualifier: Butler 29-3  Avg. RPI 15.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None (Cleveland State is just below the Bubble and should get a bid to the NIT)

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

All Games Played At Albany, NY (Siena host team)

Opening Round

#8 Manhattan 73  #9 St. Peter’s 59

#10 Canisius 64  #7 Iona 59

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Siena 66  Manhattan 58

#4 Loyola (Md.) 64  #5 Fairfield 59

#2 Rider 75  Canisius 71

#6 Marist 66  #3 Niagara 62

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Siena 65  Loyola (Md.) 63

Rider 76  Marist 71

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

Siena 74  Rider 53

Automatic Qualifier: Siena 22-10  Avg. RPI 71.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None

Missouri Valley @ St. Louis (Arch Madness)

Opening Round

#8 Indiana State 71  #9 Wichita State 67

#7 Missouri State 69 #10 Evansville 46

Quarterfinals

#1 Drake 68  Indiana State 46

#4 Creighton 74  #5 Bradley 70

#2 Illinois State 63  Missouri State 58

#6 Northern Iowa 54  #3 Southern Illinois 49

Saturday, March 8

Semifinals

Drake 75 Creighton 67

Illinois State 56 Northern Iowa 42

Sunday, March 9

Championship

Drake 79  Illinois State 49

Automatic Qualifier: Drake 28-4  Avg. RPI 11.3

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                       Illinois State 23-9  RPI avg. 35.5 [Beginning to look safe]

                                    Creighton 21-10  RPI avg. 48.8 [added to bubble watch due to upsets]

Northeast

Quarterfinal

#1 Robert Morris 64  #8 Monmouth 50

#4 Mt. St. Mary’s 80  #5 Quinnipiac 70

#2 Wagner 71  #7 Long Island 62

#3 Sacred Heart 84  #6 Central Connecticut State 71

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Mt. St. Mary’s 83  Robert Morris 65

Sacred Heart 55  Wagner 49

Wednesday, March 12

Championship

Mt. St. Mary’s 68  Sacred Heart 55

Automatic Qualifier: Mount St. Mary’s 18-14  Avg. RPI 155.8

The Mount won its three tournament games by an average score of 77-63 thanks to great shooting and the ability to hustle on the boards.  That worked against the NEC, but it won’t be enough to get past the first round in the Big Dance.  This is a #16-seed that will make a quick exit.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None

Ohio Valley Conference

Quarterfinals @ Higher Seed

#1 Austin Peay 76  #8 Eastern Kentucky 51

#4 UT-Martin 101  #5 Samford 94  3ot

#2 Murray State 77  #7 Tennessee Tech 74

#6 Tennessee State 68  #3 Morehead State 61

Semifinals @ Nashville

Austin Peay 78  UT-Martin 77

Tennessee State 83 Murray State 75

Saturday, March 8

Championship

Austin Peay 82 Tennessee State 64

Automatic Qualifier: Austin Peay 24-10  Avg. RPI 79.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None

Southern Conference

All Games Played At Charleston, SC (College of Charleston host team)

Opening Round

#8 Wofford 58  #9 Western Carolina 49

#7 Elon 52  #10 Furman 37

#6 Charleston 66  #11 Citadel 48

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Davidson 82 Wofford 49

#5 UNC-Greensboro 63  #4 Appalachian State 46

Elon 60  #2 Chattanooga 57

Coll. of Charleston 87  #3 Georgia Southern 73

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Davidson 82 UNCG 52

Elon 75  Charleston 61

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

Davidson 65  Elon 49

Automatic Qualifier: Davidson 26-6  Avg. RPI 26.8

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None

Summit League @ Tulsa (Oral Roberts host team)                

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 84 #8 Centenary 56

#2 IUPUI 69  #7 Missouri-Kansas City 65

Sunday, March 9

Quarterfinals

#5 IPFW 66  #4 Southern Utah 62

#3 Oakland 80 #6 Western Illinois 66

Monday, March 10

Semifinals

Oral Roberts 58 IPFW 42

IUPUI 80 Oakland 65

Tuesday, March 11

Championship

Oral Roberts 71  IUPUI 64

Automatic Qualifier: Oral Roberts 24-8  Avg. RPI 49.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None (IUPUI’s RPI is too low for consideration)

Sunbelt Conference                   

1st Round

#8 New Orleans 65  #9 Denver 60

#4 Middle Tennessee 74  #13 Louisiana Monroe 69

#12 Troy 70  #5 Louisiana Lafayette 60

#6 North Texas 85  #11 Arkansas State 63

#7 Florida Atlantic 91  #10 Florida International 64

Sunday, March 9 @ Mobile, AL

Quarterfinals

South Alabama 81  New Orleans 77

Middle Tennessee 65  Troy 59

Western Kentucky 84  North Texas 70

Arkansas Little Rock 66  Florida Atlantic 60

Monday, March 10 @ Mobile, AL

Semifinals

Middle Tennessee 82  South Alabama 73

Western Kentucky 70 Arkansas-Little Rock 55

Tuesday, March 11 @ Mobile, AL

Championship

Western Kentucky 67  Middle Tennessee 57

Automatic Qualifier: Western Kentucky 27-6  Avg. RPI 35

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                       South Alabama (Avg. RPI 35.8) [Looking Good after yesterday’s upsets]

 West Coast Conference

All Games Played At San Diego (San Diego host team)

Opening Round

#5 San Francisco 79  # 8 Loyola Marymount 60

#6 Pepperdine 50  #7 Portland 48  ot

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#4 Santa Clara 51  San Francisco 50

#3 San Diego 75  Pepperdine 55

Sunday, March 9

#1 Gonzaga 52  Santa Clara 48

San Diego 75  #2 St. Mary’s 69  2ot

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

San Diego 69 Gonzaga 62

Automatic Qualifier: San Diego 21-13  Avg. RPI 90

At-Large Teams:      0, 1 or 2 (Gonzaga & St. Mary’s)

Bubble:                       St. Mary’s 25-6  Avg. RPI 37.3 [Should be safe thanks to Pac-10 teams losing]

                                    Gonzaga 25-7  Avg. RPI 27.8 [Absolute certainty]

Ivy League Champion

Automatic Qualifier: Cornell 22-5  Avg. RPI 67

Clinched Automatic Berth in NCAA Tournament (14)

 1. Cornell (22-5)-Ivy League Champion

 2. Winthrop (22-11)-Big South Champion

 3. Austin Peay (24-10)-Ohio Valley Champion

 4. Belmont (25-8)-Atlantic Sun Champion

 5. Drake (28-4)-Missouri Valley Champion

 6. George Mason (23-10)-Colonial Champion

 7. Siena (22-10)-Metro Atlantic Champion

 8. Davidson (26-6)-Southern Champion

 9. San Diego (21-13)-West Coast Champion

10. Oral Roberts (24-8)-Summit Champion

11. Western Kentucky (27-6)-Sunbelt Champion

12. Butler (29-3)-Horizon Champion

13. Mount St. Mary’s (18-14)-Northeast Champion

14. Portland State (23-9)-Big Sky Champion

17 Automatic and 34 at-large bids still to be determined

Active Tournaments

America East

1st Three Rounds At Binghamton, NY.  Championship Game At Higher Seed

Opening Round

#8 Stony Brook 73  vs. #9 Maine 65  ot

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Md. Balt. Co. 76  Stony Brook 60

#4 Vermont 65  #5 Binghamton 57

#2 Hartford 68  #7 New Hampshire 65

#6 Boston U. 68  #3 Albany 64  ot

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Md. Balt. Co. 73  Vermont 64

Hartford 59  Boston U. 52

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Hartford 18-15  at Maryland-Baltimore Co. 23-8

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None

UMBC didn’t have to play Binghamton, and that made their task much easier.  Hartford had a tough time with two weak opponents to get this far, and the clock will strike midnight for them Saturday.  While these two teams split a pair of one-point games during the regular season, I believe UMBC should win this rubber match by 10 or more points and earn their first trip to the Big Dance, where they could be a #14 seed.  Of particular interest in this championship game will be the match-up of two, small, but beefy forwards.  Hartford’s Warren McLendon and UMBC’s Darryl Proctor will battle it out for close to 40 minutes and make this game worth watching.

Atlantic Coast  @ Charlotte, NC

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#9 Florida State 70  #8 Wake Forest 60

#5 Miami 63  #12 North Carolina State 50

#7 Georgia Tech 94  #10 Virginia 76

#11 Boston College 71  #6 Maryland 68

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 North Carolina 29-2  vs. Florida State 19-13

#4 Virginia Tech 18-12  vs. Miami 22-9

#2 Duke 26-4  vs. Georgia Tech 15-16

#3 Clemson 22-8  vs. Boston College 14-16

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

UNC-FSU  vs. VT-Mia.

Duke-GT  vs. Clem-BC

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

Duke and North Carolina are more than likely headed to a rubber game Sunday, but keep an eye on Miami and Clemson.  The Hurricanes are a solid team capable of going deep into the NCAA Tournament, but they can be inconsistent and lose a game they should win.  Clemson has something to prove after last season’s crash and burn.

You can kiss Maryland’s chances goodbye after the Terps blew a nice lead against Boston College and lost.  Should American lose in the American Patriot League Championship game, they would be a great opening round NIT opponent for the Terps.

Virginia Tech and Florida State still have work to do and need upset wins today.

At-large Teams:       4, 5, or 6 (UNC-2, Duke-4, Clem-21, Miami-30.3)

Bubble:                       Virginia Tech (Avg RPI 61),  Florida State ( Avg RPI 64)

Atlantic 10  @ Atlantic City, NJ

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Dayton 63  St. Louis 62  ot

#5 St. Joseph’s 80 #12 Fordham 62

#7 LaSalle 82  #10 Duquesne 79

#6 Charlotte 75  #11 Rhode Island 73

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Xavier 74  Dayton 65

 St. Joseph’s 61 #4 Richmond 47

#2 Temple 84  LaSalle 75

Charlotte 69  #3 Massachusetts 65

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Xavier 27-5  vs. St. Joseph’s 20-11

Temple 19-12  vs. Charlotte 20-12

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

At-large Teams:       1 or 2 (Xavier [9 RPI] for sure,

Bubble:                       U Mass (43 RPI), Dayton (great RPI Avg. of 31.3), St. Joe’s (52.3 RPI)

U Mass blew a huge lead and lost to Charlotte in a mild to moderate upset.  Now Charlotte gets Temple, and the winner will more than likely play Xavier for the title.  The Musketeers must first dispose of St. Joe’s, and it will be a tough game.  The Hawks are now one big upset win from moving squarely into bubbleville.

Temple needs to get to the finals to have any bubble chances, but the Owls are talented enough to earn the automatic bid.

I believe Dayton has the chance to be the team with the highest RPI that is left out of the Dance.

Big East  @ Madison Square Garden in NYC

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Villanova 82  #9 Syracuse 63

#5 West Virginia 58  #12 Providence 53

#7 Pittsburgh 70  #10 Cincinnati 64

#6 Marquette 67  #11 Seton Hall 54

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Georgetown 82  Villanova 63

West Virginia 78  #4 Connecticut 72

Pittsburgh 76  #2 Louisville 69 ot

Marquette 89  #3 Notre Dame 79

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Georgetown 26-4  vs. West Virginia 24-9

Pittsburgh 24-9  vs. Marquette 24-8

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

West Virginia took control of the game early and held off to beat Connecticut.  I think the Mountaineers are going to give Georgetown a great game, and if their legs are not tired, WVU could pull off the upset.

Pittsburgh is playing its best ball since early in the season, and Marquette has possibly looked like the best team in the tournament to date.  The semifinal doubleheader today is going to be dynamite.

At-large Teams:       7 or 8 (G’town, UL, ND, UConn, WVU, Marq., Pitt  all have RPIs under 40)

Bubble:                       Villanova (avg. RPI 51.3) [It looks iffy for the Wildcats-50-50]

Big 10  @ Indianapolis, IN

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#9 Michigan 55  #8 Iowa 47

#10 Illinois 64  #7 Penn State 63

#6 Minnesota 55  #11 Northwestern 52

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 Wisconsin 26-4  vs. Michigan 10-21

#4 Michigan State 24-7  vs. #5 Ohio State 19-12

#2 Purdue 24-7  vs. Illinois 14-18

#3 Indiana 25-6  vs. Minnesota 19-12

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

Wisc.-Mich  vs. MSU-OSU

Purd-Ill.  Vs. IU-MN

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

This tournament is about to get exciting.  I believe at least three of today’s lower seeds have a reasonable chance of pulling off the upset and giving some bubble teams’ coaches and players another couple of sleepless nights.  Ohio State beating Michigan State would only be a mild upset, but these two teams can both take advantage of the other’s weaknesses. 

Illinois has looked really good in many of their losses this year, and while they aren’t about to make a run to the Sweet 16, the Illini could upset Purdue today.  The Boilermakers didn’t finish strong, and I’m not sure they are going to pull out of this late-season tailspin.

Minnesota is not playing for an at-large bid, but Tubby Smith is an outstanding conference tournament preparer.  I think the Gophers have an outside shot at winning this thing and securing an automatic bid.  Indiana is not the same club they were with Kelvin Sampson, and the Hoosiers are ripe for the upset today.  The Gophers couldn’t have asked for a better draw (the same goes for Illinois).

Only Wisconsin appears safe today.  The Badgers should methodically and slowly pull away from Michigan.  I expect a final in the range of 65-50.

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (Wisconsin–12, Purdue-35.8, Indiana-17.3, Michigan State-13.5)

Bubble:                       Ohio State-45 (still needs to prove their worth)

Big 12  @ Kansas City

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#9 Oklahoma State 76  #8 Texas Tech 72

#12 Colorado 91  #5 Baylor 84  2ot

#7 Nebraska 61  #10 Missouri 56

#6 Texas A&M 60  #11 Iowa State 47

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 Texas 26-5  vs. Oklahoma State 17-14

#4 Oklahoma 21-10  vs. Colorado 12-19

#2 Kansas 28-3  vs. Nebraska 19-11

#3 Kansas State 20-10  vs. Texas A&M 23-9

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

Texas-OK St  vs. Okla-Color

Kans-Nebr  vs. K-St-A&M

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

We have a #12-seed still alive in the quarterfinals, and if Colorado upsets Oklahoma today, the fans in Boulder may have to light up a couch or two on Arapahoe and Broadway.  The loss hurt, but didn’t kill Baylor’s chances of getting an at-large berth.

An Oklahoma State upset over Texas could bump the Cowboys up enough spots in the RPI to get them into the discussion should they then beat Oklahoma or Colorado tomorrow.

At first glance, you’d think Kansas has an easy game today and will beat Nebraska by as much as they did in the football season.  However, this Cornhusker team is not that bad.  Diminutive 5-7 guard Cookie Miller is worth the price of admission to watch, but big man Aleks Maric is the reason the ‘Huskers have an outside chance against Kansas today.  Maric is probably the best player you have never heard of if you live outside the Big 12 region.  The Aussie averages better than 16 points and 10 boards per game, and he has gotten better as the season has progressed, recording double-doubles in 12 of the last 13 games.  In the last seven games, he has connected on better than 67% of his shots.  The 6-11 and 270-pound bruiser makes Billy Paultz (for you old geezers like me) and Bill Laimbeer (for you younger old geezers) look like lambs.

The Kansas State and Texas A&M game could be one of the five best games of the entire day.  State’s Michael Beasley wants to prove he is not only the best freshman in years, he wants to prove he’s the best power forward since Tim Duncan.  Texas A&M has no Acie Law, and the Aggies are a step down from last year, but Coach Mark Turgeon has his squad probably one win away from wrapping up an at-large bid.

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (Texas-5, Kansas-9, Oklahoma-24.8) 

Bubble:                       Baylor-44.8, Kansas State-42.3, Texas A&M-47.3

Big West Tournament  @ Anaheim, CA

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#5 UC-Irvine 77  #8 Long Beach State 63

#7 UC-Riverside 62  Cal Poly 54

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#3 Cal State Fullerton 81  UC-Riverside 69

UC-Irvine 57  #4 Pacific 56

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

#1 UC Santa Barbara 23-7 vs. UC-Irvine 17-15

#2 Cal State Northridge 21-8 vs. Cal State Fullerton 22-8

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

UC-Irvine, coming off two wins in two days, faces a rested top-seeded UCSB team that should pummel them if the Anteaters are fatigued.  Cal State Fullerton and Cal State Northridge should hook up in a close game, and the winner of that game could be fatigued in the final.  Things are looking good for UCSB, but the other semifinal should produce a talented winner.

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                       None

Conference USA  @ Memphis

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#5 Southern Miss. 59  #12 Rice 50

#9 Tulane 48  #8 Marshall 47

#7 Tulsa 66  #10 East Carolina 49

#6 UTEP 71  #11 SMU 49

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Memphis 75  Tulane 56

Southern Mississippi 68  #4 Central Florida 62

Tulsa 78  #2 Ala.-Birmingham 68 ot

UTEP 80  #3 Houston 77

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Memphis 31-1  vs. Southern Miss. 19-13

Tulsa 19-12  vs. UTEP 19-12

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

The two teams that could have earned at-large bids both lost, so the only way CUSA will get two teams into the Dance is if someone knocks off Memphis.  I can’t see it happening.

At-large Teams:       0 or 1 (Memphis has 99.99% chance of winning automatic bid)

Bubble:                       None

Mid-American Conference @ Cleveland

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Toledo 52 #9 Bowling Green 48

#5 Miami (O) 69  #12 Buffalo 68

#7 Eastern Michigan 59  #10 Ball State 55

#6 Central Michigan 83  #11 Northern Illinois 71

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Kent State 77  Toledo 57

Miami (O) 74  #4 Ohio U 61

#2 Western Michigan 70  Eastern Michigan 61

#3 Akron 81  Central Michigan 60

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Kent State 26-6  vs. Miami (O) 17-14

Western Michigan 20-11  vs. Akron 22-9

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Can Miami upset Kent State and destroy another bubble team’s weekend?  They might have the right emotional oomph to pull off the trick.  The Golden Flashes are already in the tournament win or lose, while Miami must win the tournament. 

Akron is technically the lower seed in the other semifinal, but the Zips are clearly the favorite in their match with WMU and the team with the best shot of beating Kent State.

At-large Teams:       1 (Kent State avg. RPI 28.5)

Bubble:                       None

MEAC @ Raleigh, NC

Tuesday, March 11

Opening Round

#7 Coppin State 55  #10 Howard 54

#8 South Carolina State 78  #9 Bethune Cookman 69

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#6 Florida A&M 70  Maryland Eastern Shore 61

Quarterfinal Round

Coppin State 75  Hampton 74  ot

Morgan State 77 South Carolina State 68

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinal Round

#3 Norfolk State 69  Florida A&M 61

#4 Delaware State 64  #5 North Carolina A&T 62

Friday, March 14

Semifinal Round

Morgan State 21-9  vs. Delaware State 14-15

Coppin State 14-20 vs. Norfolk State 16-14

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Note: There will be a bonus game prior to the Championship Game to be played between North Carolina Central (3-26) and Winston-Salem State (12-17), two future MEAC teams.

Here is an example of how an abnormal seeding could hurt this conference.  Coppin State is the surprise team in this tournament.  They have made it to the semifinal round against Norfolk State.  Because Hampton was expected to win this game as the #2-seed, their loss to CSU gives the Eagles an extra day to rest and prepare for this game. 

Morgan State is still alive, and they represent the MEAC’s best chance of pulling off a first-round win.

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                       None

Mountain West  @ Las Vegas

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#9 Colorado State 68  #8 Wyoming 63

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 BYU 89  Colorado State 62

#4 San Diego State 53  #5 Air Force 49

#2 UNLV 89  #7 TCU 88

#6 Utah 82  #3 New Mexico 80 ot

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

BYU 26-6  vs. San Diego State 20-11

UNLV 24-7  vs. Utah 17-13

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

UNLV barely survived at home in the first round, while New Mexico saw its NCAA at-large dreams quashed.  Utah will catch a more focused Runnin’ Rebels squad today, and I expect Coach Lon Kruger to have his team ready against Utah.  The Utes were overly extended yesterday just like UNLV.  I expect the Rebs to win.

BYU will have a tougher time today against San Diego State than they did yesterday against Colorado State.  The Aztecs had a close, but not exerted, game with Air Force.

At-large Teams:       2 (BYU [Avg. RPI 25.3], UNLV [Avg. RPI 25.5)

Bubble:                       New Mexico (Avg. RPI 58.5) [Almost assuredly out of contention]

Pac-10  @ The Staples Center in Los Angeles

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#9 California 84  #8 Washington 81

#7 Arizona 87 #10 Oregon State 56

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 UCLA 88  California 66

#4 Southern Cal 59  #5 Arizona State 55

#2 Stanford 75  Arizona 64

#3 Washington State 75  Oregon 70

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

UCLA 29-3  vs. Southern Cal 21-10

Stanford 25-6  vs. Washington State 24-7

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

So much for the grudge match.  I guess UCLA had an axe to grind, and they sharpened their blades on Cal.  The sharp edges then did more damage, as two or three bubble teams heard the bursting sound.  Oregon, Arizona State, and possibly Arizona are now in trouble.

Today’s UCLA-USC semifinal match marks the first time the two Los Angeles schools have faced off in the Pac-10 Tournament.  Having the game at The Staples Center makes it all the more exciting.  The two teams won on the other’s home court this year.

The Stanford-Washington State nightcap will not be as exciting.  Washington State games generally are slow, passive games, and Stanford doesn’t have the type of talent to force the Cougars into a faster tempo.  It should be close, but not one to remember.

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (UCLA-6, Stanford-16, Washington State-21.3, Southern Cal-28.5)

Bubble:                       Arizona-39.8 , Oregon-55.8  (‘Zona is probably okay, but Ducks are in trouble)

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 American 62  #8 Holy Cross 60

#5 Army 64  #4 Lehigh 61 ot

#7 Bucknell 87  #2 Navy 86 3ot

#3 Colgate 76  #6 Lafayette 74

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

American  72 Army 60

Colgate 54  Bucknell 40

Friday, March 14

Championship

Colgate 18-13 at American 20-11

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                       None

This should be a close game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it went to overtime.  American beat Colgate twice by eight points this year, and I expect the Red Raiders to be ready to exact some revenge. 

American has won nine of its last 10 games, and the Eagles have the best backcourt in the Patriot League.  In tournaments, guard play is very important, as the backcourt that makes more errors or forces the fewer errors usually comes from the losing team.  I’ll go with American in this one, which will allow Coach Jeff Jones to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since he was at Virginia in the 1990’s.

Southeastern  @ Atlanta

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#5E South Carolina 77  #4W LSU 73

#3E Vanderbilt 93  #6W Auburn 82

#5W Alabama 80  #4E Florida 69

#6E Georgia 97  #3W Ole Miss 95  ot

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1E Tennessee 28-3  vs. South Carolina 14-17

#2W Arkansas 20-10  vs. Vanderbilt 26-6

#1W Mississippi St. 21-9  vs. Alabama 17-15

#2E Kentucky 18-11  vs. Georgia 14-16

Saturday, March 15

UT-USC  vs. Ark-Vand.

MSU-Ala  vs. UK-UGa

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

As Chester A. Riley (the 1940’s and 50’s radio character played by William Bendix) used to say, “What a revoltin’ development this is!”  Ole Miss and Florida took quick exits, and the SEC is down to five teams going dancing unless a surprise team cuts down the nets Sunday.

As Secret Agent Maxwell Smart used to say, “Would you believe,”  Would you believe Alabama and Georgia are still playing in Atlanta.  This Tide team looked more like C.M. Newton’s Alabama squads of the mid-1970’s, while Georgia looked like a team trying to save a coach they love from having to file unemployment insurance.

Agent 86 also was famous for saying, “Missed it by that much,” and that’s what I think Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Georgia will be saying today.  Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Kentucky should win close games that go down to the wire. 

As the Lone Ranger used to say, “Hi-yo Silver, Away!”  Today, we will be saying that to Dave Odom, as he coaches his last game at South Carolina and rides off into the sunset.  Even though Tennessee has performed lousy in the SEC Tournament for more than a decade, I think the Vols will come out and put a whippin’ on the garnet and black today.  Devan Downey would have to have a career day, and Evaldas Baniulis would have to hit about seven treys for the Gamecocks to have a chance.

And as Lieutenant Columbo used to say, “Just one more thing.”  Kentucky may end up with an RPI in the 50’s if they lose today, but we all know they will receive a bid to the Dance.  It’s just like selecting Willie Mays to the All-Star game in 1973 when he was barely hitting .200.  You will be able to “say hey” to Billy Gillispie’s team at a regional somewhere next week (I am not implying UK’s play to date has been like Willie Mays in 1973.  The Cats are good enough to make it to the Sweet 16).

At-large Teams:       5 (Tennessee-1, Miss. State-39.8, Kentucky-49.8, Arkansas-40.8, Vanderbilt-10)

Bubble:                       Florida-71, Ole Miss-53.5 (see ya in the NIT Gators and Rebels)

Southland  @ Katy, TX (near Houston)

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Stephen F. Austin 71  #8 Texas San Antonio 60

#5 Northwestern State 71  #4 Southeast Louisiana 51

#7 UT-Arlington 81  #2 Lamar 75

#3 Sam Houston State 64  McNeese State 62 ot

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Stephen F. Austin 26-4  vs. Northwestern State 14-17

UT-Arlington 19-11  vs. Sam Houston 23-7

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

A Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State final would be exactly what the doctor ordered for this conference tournament.  With all the upsets, SFA is back in the conversation as a possible at-large team, but only if they were to lose to Sam Houston.  If UT-Arlington beats the Bearkats, then all bets are off.

The Lumberjacks didn’t look like world beaters yesterday, but their defense gave them a comfortable 11-point win over UT-San Antonio.  They meet a Northwestern State team that will try to get them out of their comfort zone and into a running game.  SFA prevented this from happening in their regular season tilt, and I expect more of the same today.  The Lumberjacks have an overwhelming advantage inside and should control the boards and win by double digits.

Sam Houston walloped UT-Arlington twice during the regular season, dominating inside both times.  While it is hard to beat a conference rival thrice in one season, sometimes a team just doesn’t match up well with an opponent.  UTA hasn’t found an answer to SHS’s star player Ryan Bright or backcourt leader Shamir McDaniel.  In the game in Arlington, the Mavericks watched Bearkat backup DeLuis Ramirez come off the bench and score a double-double.

At-large Teams:       0 or 1

Bubble:                       Stephen F. Austin-57.5  (road wins against Oklahoma and San Diego)

S W A C  @ Birmingham

Wednesday, March 12

Quarterfinals

#1 Alabama State 67  #8 Texas Southern 49

#2 Mississippi Valley 79  #7 Grambling 73

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#6 Arkansas Pine Bluff 72  Alabama A&M 59

#4 Jackson State 56  #5 Southern 55

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Alabama State 20-9  vs. Jackson St. 13-19

Mississippi Valley 15-15 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff 13-17

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

With the top two seeds enjoying a day off yesterday, they will be well-rested and prohibitive favorites today.  If Alabama State loses today or tomorrow, you can already put the SWAC Tournament Champion on the Play-in Bracket and do it in pen.  Even if Alabama State wins, you can pencil them in that slot.

At-large Teams:       0         

Bubble:                       None

WAC @ Las Cruces, NM

Tuesday, March 11

Opening Round

#8 San Jose State 64  Louisiana Tech 62

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Utah State 85  San Jose State 65

#4 Boise State 80  Hawaii 74

#2 Nevada 64  #7 Fresno State 57

#3 New Mexico State 73  #6 Idaho 53

Friday, March 14

Semifinal Round

Utah State 24-9  vs. Boise State 23-8

Nevada 21-10  vs. New Mexico St. 20-13

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

The top four seeds have made it to the semifinals, and that always makes for a great finish to a tournament.  New Mexico State dominated on their home floor, but the remaining teams have what it takes to win in Las Cruces.  Utah State looked strong yesterday, and the Aggies’ starters got some rest.  That just may be enough to get them by Boise State today. 

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                       None (Utah State has an avg. RPI of 65, which is too low)

March 13, 2008

A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 13, 2008–7th Update

 

A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments

March 13, 2008, 7th Update

Conference Tournament Results through Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Concluded Tournaments

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#4 East Tennessee 81 #5 Lipscomb 74

#6 Gardner-Webb 82  #3 Stetson 63

#2 Jacksonville 65  #7 Mercer 57

#1 Belmont 75  #8 Campbell 66

Semifinals

Jacksonville 89 Gardner-Webb 80

Belmont 69 East Tennessee 65

Saturday, March 8

Championship

Belmont 79  Jacksonville 61

Automatic Qualifier: Belmont 25-8  Avg. RPI 76

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Big Sky                    

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#4 Idaho State 67  #5 Montana 65

#3 Weber State 65  #6 Montana State 49

Tuesday, March 11 @ Portland, OR

Semifinals

#1 Portland State 72  Idaho State 61

#2 Northern Arizona 75  Weber State 70

Wednesday, March 12 @ Portland, OR

Championship Game

Portland State 67  Northern Arizona 51

Automatic Qualifier: Portland State 23-9  Avg. RPI 84.3

Portland State will pose problems for a first-round opponent not used to playing against a team that overplays the passing lanes.  If the Vikings snatch away double figure steals, they can compete in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  PSU will have problems with a physical, inside muscle team that knows how to take care of the ball, like a Michigan State.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Big South

Opening Round

#1 UNC-Asheville 87  #8 Charleston Southern 63

#4 Liberty 103  #5 VMI 88

#2 Winthrop 76  #7 Radford 45

#3 High Point 59  #6 Coastal Carolina 56

Semifinals

UNC-Asheville 75  Liberty 57

Winthrop 61  High Point 53

Saturday, March 8 @ Asheville, NC

Championship Game

Winthrop 66  UNC-Asheville 48

Automatic Qualifier: Winthrop 22-11  Avg. RPI 103.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Colonial Athletic Association

All Games Played At Richmond, VA (Virginia Commonwealth host team)

#9 Towson State 81  #8 Towson State 66

#5 William & Mary 58 #12 Georgia State 57

#6 Delaware 60  #11 Drexel 51

#7 Northeastern 73 #10 James Madison 59

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Virginia Commonwealth 57  Towson State 46

William & Mary 63  #4 Old Dominion 60

#3 UNC-Wilmington 82  Delaware 59

#2 George Mason 63  Northeastern 52

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

William & Mary 56  Virginia Commonwealth 54

George Mason 53  UNC-Wilmington 41

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

George Mason 68  William & Mary 59

Automatic Qualifier: George Mason 23-10  Avg. RPI 58.5

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                      Virginia Commonwealth 24-7  RPI Avg.: 57.8

Horizon League              

All Games Played At Indianapolis (Butler host team)

Opening Round

#3 Wright State 60  #10 Detroit 37

#6 Valparaiso 75  #7 UW-Green Bay 67

#4 Illinois-Chicago 70  #9 Youngstown State 59

#8 Loyola (Chi.) 57  #5 UW-Milwaukee 51

Quarterfinals

Valparaiso 72  Wright State 67

Illinois-Chicago 60 Loyola (Chi.) 49

Saturday, March 8

Semifinals

#2 Cleveland State 78  Valparaiso 73

#1 Butler 66  Illinois-Chicago 50

Tuesday, March 11

Championship

Butler 70  Cleveland State 55

Automatic Qualifier: Butler 29-3  Avg. RPI 16

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None (Cleveland State is just below the Bubble and should get a bid to the NIT)

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

All Games Played At Albany, NY (Siena host team)

Opening Round

#8 Manhattan 73  #9 St. Peter’s 59

#10 Canisius 64  #7 Iona 59

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Siena 66  Manhattan 58

#4 Loyola (Md.) 64  #5 Fairfield 59

#2 Rider 75  Canisius 71

#6 Marist 66  #3 Niagara 62

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Siena 65  Loyola (Md.) 63

Rider 76  Marist 71

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

Siena 74  Rider 53

Automatic Qualifier: Siena 22-10  Avg. RPI 71.8

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Missouri Valley @ St. Louis (Arch Madness)

Opening Round

#8 Indiana State 71  #9 Wichita State 67

#7 Missouri State 69 #10 Evansville 46

Quarterfinals

#1 Drake 68  Indiana State 46

#4 Creighton 74  #5 Bradley 70

#2 Illinois State 63  Missouri State 58

#6 Northern Iowa 54  #3 Southern Illinois 49

Saturday, March 8

Semifinals

Drake 75 Creighton 67

Illinois State 56 Northern Iowa 42

Sunday, March 9

Championship

Drake 79  Illinois State 49

Automatic Qualifier: Drake 28-4  Avg. RPI 11.8

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                      Illinois State 23-9  RPI avg. 35.5

Northeast

Quarterfinal

#1 Robert Morris 64  #8 Monmouth 50

#4 Mt. St. Mary’s 80  #5 Quinnipiac 70

#2 Wagner 71  #7 Long Island 62

#3 Sacred Heart 84  #6 Central Connecticut State 71

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Mt. St. Mary’s 83  Robert Morris 65

Sacred Heart 55  Wagner 49

Wednesday, March 12

Championship

Mt. St. Mary’s 68  Sacred Heart 55

Automatic Qualifier: Mount St. Mary’s 18-14  Avg. RPI 156.3

The Mount won its three tournament games by an average score of 77-63 thanks to great shooting and the ability to hustle on the boards.  That worked against the NEC, but it won’t be enough to get past the first round in the Big Dance.  This is a #16-seed that will make a quick exit.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Ohio Valley Conference

Quarterfinals @ Higher Seed

#1 Austin Peay 76  #8 Eastern Kentucky 51

#4 UT-Martin 101  #5 Samford 94  3ot

#2 Murray State 77  #7 Tennessee Tech 74

#6 Tennessee State 68  #3 Morehead State 61

Semifinals @ Nashville

Austin Peay 78  UT-Martin 77

Tennessee State 83 Murray State 75

Saturday, March 8

Championship

Austin Peay 82 Tennessee State 64

Automatic Qualifier: Austin Peay 24-10  Avg. RPI 80.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Southern Conference

All Games Played At Charleston, SC (College of Charleston host team)

Opening Round

#8 Wofford 58  #9 Western Carolina 49

#7 Elon 52  #10 Furman 37

#6 Charleston 66  #11 Citadel 48

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Davidson 82 Wofford 49

#5 UNC-Greensboro 63  #4 Appalachian State 46

Elon 60  #2 Chattanooga 57

Coll. of Charleston 87  #3 Georgia Southern 73

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Davidson 82 UNCG 52

Elon 75  Charleston 61

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

Davidson 65  Elon 49

Automatic Qualifier: Davidson 26-6  Avg. RPI 29.8

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Summit League @ Tulsa (Oral Roberts host team)                  

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 84 #8 Centenary 56

#2 IUPUI 69  #7 Missouri-Kansas City 65

Sunday, March 9

Quarterfinals

#5 IPFW 66  #4 Southern Utah 62

#3 Oakland 80 #6 Western Illinois 66

Monday, March 10

Semifinals

Oral Roberts 58 IPFW 42

IUPUI 80 Oakland 65

Tuesday, March 11

Championship

Oral Roberts 71  IUPUI 64

Automatic Qualifier: Oral Roberts 24-8  Avg. RPI 52.5

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None (IUPUI’s RPI of 68 is too low for consideration)

Sunbelt Conference                   

1st Round

#8 New Orleans 65  #9 Denver 60

#4 Middle Tennessee 74  #13 Louisiana Monroe 69

#12 Troy 70  #5 Louisiana Lafayette 60

#6 North Texas 85  #11 Arkansas State 63

#7 Florida Atlantic 91  #10 Florida International 64

Sunday, March 9 @ Mobile, AL

Quarterfinals

South Alabama 81  New Orleans 77

Middle Tennessee 65  Troy 59

Western Kentucky 84  North Texas 70

Arkansas Little Rock 66  Florida Atlantic 60

Monday, March 10 @ Mobile, AL

Semifinals

Middle Tennessee 82  South Alabama 73

Western Kentucky 70 Arkansas-Little Rock 55

Tuesday, March 11 @ Mobile, AL

Championship

Western Kentucky 67  Middle Tennessee 57

Automatic Qualifier: Western Kentucky 27-6  Avg. RPI 38

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                      South Alabama (Avg. RPI 39.3)

 West Coast Conference

All Games Played At San Diego (San Diego host team)

Opening Round

#5 San Francisco 79  # 8 Loyola Marymount 60

#6 Pepperdine 50  #7 Portland 48  ot

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#4 Santa Clara 51  San Francisco 50

#3 San Diego 75  Pepperdine 55

Sunday, March 9

#1 Gonzaga 52  Santa Clara 48

San Diego 75  #2 St. Mary’s 69  2ot

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

San Diego 69 Gonzaga 62

Automatic Qualifier: San Diego 21-13  Avg. RPI 90

At-Large Teams:      0, 1 or 2 (Gonzaga & St. Mary’s)

Bubble:                      St. Mary’s 25-6  Avg. RPI 39.8

                                    Gonzaga 25-7  Avg. RPI 27.8

Clinched Automatic Berth in NCAA Tournament (14)

 1. Cornell (22-5)-Ivy League Champion

 2. Winthrop (22-11)-Big South Champion

 3. Austin Peay (24-10)-Ohio Valley Champion

 4. Belmont (25-8)-Atlantic Sun Champion

 5. Drake (28-4)-Missouri Valley Champion

 6. George Mason (23-10)-Colonial Champion

 7. Siena (22-10)-Metro Atlantic Champion

 8. Davidson (26-6)-Southern Champion

 9. San Diego (21-13)-West Coast Champion

10. Oral Roberts (24-8)-Summit Champion

11. Western Kentucky (27-6)-Sunbelt Champion

12. Butler (29-3)-Horizon Champion

13. Mount St. Mary’s (18-14)-Northeast Champion

14. Portland State (23-9)-Big Sky Champion

17 Automatic and 34 at-large bids still to be determined

Active Tournaments

America East

1st Three Rounds At Binghamton, NY.  Championship Game At Higher Seed

Opening Round

#8 Stony Brook 73  vs. #9 Maine 65  ot

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Md. Balt. Co. 76  Stony Brook 60

#4 Vermont 65  #5 Binghamton 57

#2 Hartford 68  #7 New Hampshire 65

#6 Boston U. 68  #3 Albany 64  ot

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Md. Balt. Co. 73  Vermont 64

Hartford 59  Boston U. 52

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Hartford 18-15  at Maryland-Baltimore Co. 23-8

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

UMBC didn’t have to play Binghamton, and that made their task much easier.  Hartford had a tough time with two weak opponents to get this far, and the clock will strike midnight for them Saturday.  While these two teams split a pair of one-point games during the regular season, I believe UMBC should win this rubber match by 10 or more points and earn their first trip to the Big Dance, where they could be a #14 seed.  Of particular interest in this championship game will be the match-up of two, small, but beefy forwards.  Hartford’s Warren McLendon and UMBC’s Darryl Proctor will battle it out for close to 40 minutes and make this game worth watching.

Atlantic 10  @ Atlantic City, NJ

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Dayton 63  St. Louis 62  ot

#5 St. Joseph’s 80 #12 Fordham 62

#7 LaSalle 82  #10 Duquesne 79

#6 Charlotte 75  #11 Rhode Island 73

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Xavier 26-5  vs. Dayton 21-9

#4 Richmond 16-13  vs. St. Joseph’s 19-11

#2 Temple 18-12  vs. LaSalle 15-16

#3 Massachusetts 21-9 vs. Charlotte 19-12

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/8 winner  vs. 4/5 winner

2/7 winner  vs. 3/6 winner

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

At-large Teams:       1 or 2 (Xavier [9 RPI] for sure, U Mass [41 RPI] maybe)

Bubble:                      U Mass, Dayton (great RPI Avg. of 30.8)

Xavier is in the Big Dance even if they drop their first A-10 Tournament game.  U Mass finished the season on a roll, as Coach Travis Ford had his Minutemen playing like a Rick Pitino Kentucky team out of the 199o’s (gee, I wonder why?)

Rhode Island looked tourney-worthy a couple of months ago, but they went in the tank and are NIT-bound.  Dayton beat St. Louis and must defeat Xavier to get to the semifinals and have a legitimate shot at an at-large berth.  I don’t see that happening. 

Keep an eye on Coach Fran Dunphy’s Temple Owls.  They flew under the radar screen all year, but they have the talent to get to the finals Saturday.  They should have little trouble against LaSalle, even though it’s a Philadelphi rivalry game, in the quarterfinals, and they match up well with U Mass in a probable semifinal match.

Big East  @ Madison Square Garden in NYC

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Villanova 82  #9 Syracuse 63

#5 West Virginia 58  #12 Providence 53

#7 Pittsburgh 70  #10 Cincinnati 64

#6 Marquette 67  #11 Seton Hall 54

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Georgetown 25-4  vs. Villanova 20-11

#4 Connecticut 24-7  vs. West Virginia 23-9

#2 Louisville 24-7  vs. Pittsburgh 23-9

#3 Notre Dame 24-6  vs. Marquette 23-8

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/8  vs. 4/5

2/7  vs. 3/6

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

The Big East Tournament is always exciting, especially since the league expanded to 16 teams.  By limiting the tourney to 12 teams, it usually means that eight or more teams have a realistic shot at winning the tournament.  With the higher seeds winning in the opening round, it’s left the Big East with eight outstanding teams all whom should be in the Field of 65.  The octet all possess 20 or more wins, and any of the group could cut down the MSG nets Saturday night.  What more could you want?

Syracuse played themselves into the NIT by laying an egg yesterday against Villanova.  I think the win put the Wildcats one win away from securing a spot into the Dance.

I think today’s West Virginia-Connecticut game will supply the eventual champion of this tournament.  Both teams are playing their best ball right now, and this should be the game of the day.

At-large Teams:       7 or 8 (G’town, UL, ND, UConn, WVU, Marq., Pitt  all have RPIs under 40)

Bubble:                      Villanova (avg. RPI 52)

Big West Tournament  @ Anaheim, CA

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#5 UC-Irvine 77  #8 Long Beach State 63

#7 UC-Riverside 62  Cal Poly 54

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#3 Cal State Fullerton 21-8  vs. UC-Riverside 9-20

#4 Pacific 21-9  vs. UC-Irvine 16-15

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

#1 UC Santa Barbara 23-7 vs. lowest remaining seed

#2 Cal State Northridge 21-8 vs. highest remaining seed

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

The Big West rewards its top teams.  The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals, while teams three and four receive first round byes.  In this type of seeding, the top two teams have huge advantages and almost always produce the tournament champion.  I expect that to be true here.  Cal State Fullerton and Pacific should win their quarterfinal games and give UCSB and CSN great semifinal games.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Titans or Tigers make it to the finals, but not both.  If only one of the top two seeds advance to the Championship Game, I expect that team to win the automatic bid over the three or four-seed.  UCSB has an excellent backcourt, and it’s the better backcourts that have been winning in conference tournament play so far.  I expect them to beat CS-Fullerton for the Title.

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None

Conference USA  @ Memphis

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#5 Southern Miss. 59  #12 Rice 50

#9 Tulane 48  #8 Marshall 47

#7 Tulsa 66  #10 East Carolina 49

#6 UTEP 71  #11 SMU 49

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Memphis 30-1  vs. Tulane 17-14

#4 Central Florida 16-14  vs. Southern Mississippi 18-13

#2 Ala.-Birmingham 22-9  vs. Tulsa 18-12

#3 Houston 22-8  vs. UTEP 18-12

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/9  vs. 4/5

2/7  vs. 3/6

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Back in the late 1930’s the talk every spring amongst the American League baseball teams centered on which team would finish second.  It was a foregone conclusion that the Yankees would finish first by more than a dozen games.  That’s what has become of CUSA basketball.  Memphis is the murderer’s row of the league, and the only thing to decide is the team that will play the part of the Washington Generals to the Tigers in the Championship Game.

The opening day of this tournament couldn’t have been any more boring.  This tournament should continue to be one worth skipping except for a possible UAB-Houston semifinal death match.  The Blazers have the easier quarterfinal game, because UTEP could give the Cougars a good run for their money.  The team that loses to Memphis in the finals should be on the upper half of the bubble, while the semifinal loser should see their bubble burst.

At-large Teams:       0 or 1 (Memphis has 99.99% chance of winning automatic bid)

Bubble:                      Tourney Runner-up if it is Houston (Avg. RPI 66) or UAB (Avg. RPI 46)

MEAC @ Raleigh, NC

Tuesday, March 11

Opening Round

#7 Coppin State 55  #10 Howard 54

#8 South Carolina State 78  #9 Bethune Cookman 69

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#6 Florida A&M 70  Maryland Eastern Shore 61

Quarterfinal Round

Coppin State 75  Hampton 74  ot

Morgan State 77 South Carolina State 68

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinal Round

#3 Norfolk State 15-14  vs. winner of Florida A&M 15-16

#4 Delaware State 13-15  vs. #5 North Carolina A&T 15-15

Friday, March 14

Semifinal Round

Morgan State 21-9  vs. Del. St.-NCAT

Coppin State 14-20 vs. Norfolk-FAMU-UMES

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Note: There will be a bonus game prior to the Championship Game to be played between North Carolina Central (3-26) and Winston-Salem State (12-17), two future MEAC teams.

Morgan State gives the MEAC its best chance to win an NCAA Tournament game, but it’s no given they will survive the MEAC Tournament.  Even though the Golden Bears won 13 of their final 14 games, the MEAC Tournament is the Saratoga Race Track of the NCAA-it’s where champions get upset.  Just ask Delaware State last year.  The Hornets were more dominating in 2007 than Morgan State has been this year, but they fell to Florida A&M in the title game. 

Who might be this season’s FAMU?  I’d keep an eye on Jerry Eaves’ North Carolina A&T team.  The Aggies have the depth to win three games in three days, and they have enough scoring options so that somebody will have a hot hand every game.

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None

Mid-American Conference @ Cleveland

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Toledo 52 #9 Bowling Green 48

#5 Miami (O) 69  #12 Buffalo 68

#7 Eastern Michigan 59  #10 Ball State 55

#6 Central Michigan 83  #11 Northern Illinois 71

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Kent State 25-6  vs. Toledo 11-18

#4 Ohio U 19-11  vs. Miami (O) 16-14

#2 Western Michigan 19-11  vs. Eastern Michigan 14-16

#3 Akron 21-9  vs. Central Michigan 14-16

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/8  vs. 4/5

2/7  vs. 3/6

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

It’s hard to imagine any of the four teams winning yesterday getting past today, except maybe Miami.  There was a Grand Canyon-sized difference between the top four teams and the rest of the league.  If the top four teams advance to the semifinals, it should make for exciting basketball on Friday and Saturday.

Kent State has a good shot at getting into the Big Dance if they lose on Saturday.  It the Flashes fall on Friday, then it gets dicey.  Ohio U can knock off the top-seed, and I give the Bobcats about a 45% chance of doing so if they meet in the semis.  On the other side of the bracket, I expect #3-seed Akron to survive to the final round.  The Zips were massacred at Western Michigan in perhaps their worst game of the season.  They will get their revenge in a probable semifinal match.

At-large Teams:       1 (Kent State avg. RPI 27.3)

Bubble:                      None

Mountain West  @ Las Vegas

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#9 Colorado State 68  #8 Wyoming 63

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 BYU 25-6  vs. Colorado State 7-24

#4 San Diego State 19-11  vs. #5 Air Force 16-13

#2 UNLV 23-7  vs. #7 TCU 14-15

#3 New Mexico 24-7 vs. #6 Utah 16-13

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/9  vs. 4/5

2/7  vs. 3/6

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

The Mountain West Conference always puts on a good show at tournament time.  Being in Vegas makes it all the more worth attending.  This year, the MWC has two at-large worthy teams in BYU and UNLV.  I think both are safe regardless of how they fare in the MWC Tournament.  The question then is can another team win the automatic bid, allowing three teams to make it to the Dance?  The answer is yes!  When he was at Southwest Missouri and Iowa, Coach Steve Alford’s teams performed above their regular season level come tourney time.  He won the Big 10 Tournament one season with a mediocre team.  This year, he has a rather strong New Mexico team, and the Lobos are more than capable of cutting down the nets Saturday.  They will have to get past the host Runnin’ Rebels to make it to the title game, but the Lobos are talented enough to do it. UNM won eight of their final nine games, with the lone loss being an overtime heartbreak against BYU.

The other possible surprise in this tournament could be San Diego State.  After losing their regular season finale to the Falcons, the Aztecs should beat Air Force in the quarterfinals, and they could be primed to upset BYU in the semis.  During the regular season, SDSU matched up well with the top-seeded Cougars.

At-large Teams:       2 (BYU [Avg. RPI 24.8], UNLV [Avg. RPI 26.8)

Bubble:                      New Mexico (Avg. RPI 52.5)

Pac-10  @ The Staples Center in Los Angeles

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#9 California 84  #8 Washington 81

#7 Arizona 87 #10 Oregon State 56

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 UCLA 28-3  vs. California 16-14

#4 Southern Cal 20-10  vs. #5 Arizona State 19-11

#2 Stanford 24-6  vs. Arizona 19-13

#3 Washington State 23-7  vs. Oregon 18-12

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/9  vs. 4/5

2/7/10  vs. 3/6

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

The Pac-10 Tournament became all the more power-charged last night when California pulled out a last second victory over Washington.  Tonight, Cal gets its rematch with UCLA after the Bruins got away with cheating in a victory over the Bears a week ago.  I expect this to be a physical game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it got out of hand at some point.  Expect to see several foul shots attempted.

The USC-Arizona State game today will be an interesting one to watch.  The Trojans finished the regular season winning five of six games, and that one loss came at Arizona State.  The Sun Devils need to win at least two games and maybe the tournament to get into the Dance.

Arizona couldn’t have asked for a better first round match with lifeless Oregon State.  The Beavers couldn’t compete in the Big West this year, much less the Pac-10, and they were cooked before the first TV timeout last night.  Wildcat Acting Coach Kevin O’Neill rested his regulars, and they should be fresh against Oregon.  The Ducks must win to have any chance at all of an at-large bid, while Arizona is iffy right now.  A Wildcat win will secure them a spot in the Dance.

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (UCLA-6, Stanford-18, Washington State-21.5, Southern Cal-31)

Bubble:                      Arizona-37 , Arizona State-71.8, Oregon-54.8

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 American 62  #8 Holy Cross 60

#5 Army 64  #4 Lehigh 61 ot

#7 Bucknell 87  #2 Navy 86 3ot

#3 Colgate 76  #6 Lafayette 74

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

American  72 Army 60

Colgate 54  Bucknell 40

Friday, March 14

Championship

Colgate 18-13 at American 20-11

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

This should be a close game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it went to overtime.  American beat Colgate twice by eight points this year, and I expect the Red Raiders to be ready to exact some revenge. 

American has won nine of its last 10 games, and the Eagles have the best backcourt in the Patriot League.  In tournaments, guard play is very important, as the backcourt that makes more errors or forces the fewer errors usually comes from the losing team.  I’ll go with American in this one, which will allow Coach Jeff Jones to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since he was at Virginia in the 1990’s.

S W A C  @ Birmingham

Wednesday, March 12

Quarterfinals

#1 Alabama State 67  #8 Texas Southern 49

#2 Mississippi Valley 79  #7 Grambling 73

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#3 Alabama A&M 14-14  vs. #6 Arkansas Pine Bluff 12-17

#4 Jackson State 12-19  vs. #5 Southern 11-18

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Alabama State 20-9  vs. Jackson St. or Southern

Mississippi Valley 15-15 vs. Ala. A&M or Ark.-PB

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Alabama State handily won the regular season SWAC title and became the only team to finish the year with a winning record.  If they don’t win the conference tournament, this league will field possibly the weakest ever NCAA Play-in Round participant.  They got past their first round opponent with relative ease and get a day off before facing the winner of today’s Jackson State-Southern game.  That should help the Hornets get to the final round.  All basketball fans need to cheer the Hornets to victory, because no other SWAC team should have to face the humiliation of losing by 20-30 points in the play-in round.  ASU can not only compete in the play-in, they could win the game.

At-large Teams:       0         

Bubble:                      None

WAC @ Las Cruces, NM

Tuesday, March 11

Opening Round

#8 San Jose State 64  Louisiana Tech 62

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Utah State 23-9  vs. San Jose State 13-18

#4 Boise State 22-8  vs. Hawaii 11-18

#2 Nevada 20-10  vs. #7 Fresno State 13-18

#3 New Mexico State 19-13  vs. #6 Idaho 8-20

Friday, March 14

Semifinal Round

Utah State-San Jose St.  vs. Boise State-Hawaii

Nevada-Fresno State  vs. New Mexico St.-Idaho

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

In a conference where four teams tied for the regular season championship, it is obvious that the tournament will be interesting with lots of nail-biter games.  If the four co-champions survive to the semifinal round, the WAC will be the talk of the West.  You have to consider New Mexico State the favorite, as they are really tough to beat in Las Cruces.  You have to pull for Utah State this year.  Last season, the Aggies lost in the title game to New Mexico State 72-70.  In 2006, they lost in overtime in the final to Nevada.  One more basket in either year would have won the Championship for them.

Nevada wasn’t supposed to fare this well this season after losing superstar Nick Fazekas to graduation.  Coach Mark Fox may be in the hunt for a big time job soon.

Unfortunately for this league, no team appears to be on the radar screen for at-large consideration.  No team has an RPI average near bubble range.

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None (no team is in the 60’s in RPI)

Conference Tournaments Beginning Thursday, March 13

Atlantic Coast  @ Charlotte, NC

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#8 Wake Forest 17-12  vs. #9 Florida State 18-13

#5 Miami 21-9  vs. #12 North Carolina State 15-15

#7 Georgia Tech 14-16  vs. #10 Virginia 15-14

#6 Maryland 18-13  vs. #11 Boston College 13-16

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 North Carolina 29-2  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Virginia Tech 18-12  vs. 5/12 winner

#2 Duke 26-4  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Clemson 22-8  vs. 6/11 winner

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5/12

2/7/10  vs. 3/6/11

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

It’s the ACC that we owe the idea of the post-season tournament and the shot clock.  This league has always fielded a post-season tournament to decide its official NCAA Tournament team, even in the days when just one team went per major conference.  Because of this, some underdogs decided to try to win by stalling the ball.  In the days before a shot clock, it led to boring games some years and a downright farce in another year.  North Carolina State upset Duke 12-10 in the semifinals 40 years ago.  They upset South Carolina in the 1970 Championship Game by stalling and winning 42-39.

Thankfully, that can no longer happen.  So, what do I expect from the 2008 ACC Tournament?  I don’t expect a repeat of 1976 when second to last place (4-8 in the ACC) Virginia, led by Wonderful Wally Walker, upset North Carolina State, Maryland, and North Carolina (all ranked) to win the title.  None of the bottom four teams have a chance.  The middle four teams have some quality talent.  I especially like Miami and expect the Hurricanes to beat NC State and Virginia Tech to earn a trip to the semifinals.  Once there, they would almost assuredly face North Carolina, a team they fell to by 16 points at home.  I don’t think they can get to the final, but a trip to the semis will give the ‘Canes a better seeding in the Dance.

Duke can be beaten inside, but in tournament play, it almost always comes down to backcourt play.  The Blue Devils should comfortably win their quarterfinal match against either Georgia Tech or Virginia.  Their semifinal game would pit them against Maryland or Clemson (or Boston College if the Eagles pulled off two upsets).  This year, the Terps and Tigers didn’t handle the Duke offense too well.  It means there is a good possibility that the big two could face off one more time for the ACC title.  If Clemson could somehow survive and make it to the Championship Game against North Carolina, that would make for terrific copy.   The Tar Heels have been Clemson’s nemesis for decades, and this season may have been the worst example.  UNC beat CU twice in overtime.

As for the three bubble teams, in order to have a realistic shot, it’s semifinals or bust for the Hokies, Terps, and ‘Noles.

At-large Teams:       4, 5, or 6 (UNC, Duke, Clem, Miami)      

Bubble:                      Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida State

Big 10  @ Indianapolis, IN

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#8 Iowa 13-18  vs. #9 Michigan 9-21

#7 Penn State 15-15  vs. #10 Illinois 13-18

#6 Minnesota 18-12  vs. #11 Northwestern 8-21

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 Wisconsin 26-4  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Michigan State 24-7  vs. #5 Ohio State 19-12

#2 Purdue 24-7  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Indiana 25-6  vs. 6/11 winner

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5

2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

I’ve had the opportunity to follow the Big 10 closer this season than ever before, and I have to say I was a little disappointed.  I believe I am witnessing the same thing in basketball that happened to this conference in football.  Four teams have incredible muscle and finesse, but none of them have the quickness to go deep into the tourney.  I’d be surprised to see more than one team make the Sweet 16, and I don’t see any Big 10 team making the Final Four or maybe the Elite Eight.

Wisconsin lost two close games to Purdue but aced the rest of the league.  Indiana braved a late-season coaching change and didn’t play as well under Dan Dakich.  Purdue lost two of their final five games, while Michigan State split its final 10 games.  Ohio State lost six times in February.  So, the Badgers have to be considered the overwhelming favorite in Indianapolis.  Among the also-rans, the winner of the Penn State and Illinois game has the best chance of breaking through with a big upset and crashing into the semifinals.   That would mean Purdue would be a quarterfinal victim.  I’d also keep a close eye on Minnesota.  If Tubby Smith’s Gophers get by Northwestern (they should win by 15-20 points), they have a decent shot against Indiana in the next round.  That could conceivably lead to Minnesota playing Illinois or Penn State for a berth in the finals.  If the Gophers make it to Sunday, they would then have to get by arch-rival Wisconsin for a trip to the Big Dance.  I’ll stick with the Badgers to win the tournament and enter NCAA play as the league’s one true threat to advance past the Sweet 16.

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State) 

Bubble:                      Ohio State

Big 12  @ Kansas City

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#8 Texas Tech 16-14  vs. #9 Oklahoma State 16-14

#5 Baylor 21-9  vs. #12 Colorado 11-19

#7 Nebraska 18-11  vs. #10 Missouri 16-15

#6 Texas A&M 22-9  vs. #11 Iowa State 14-17

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 Texas 26-5  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Oklahoma 21-10  vs. 5/12 winner

#2 Kansas 28-3  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Kansas State 20-10  vs. 6/11 winner

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5/12

2/7/10  vs. 3/6/11

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

No Big 12 team has appeared in the Final Four in the last four tournaments.  The Big 12 placed two teams in the Final Four in both 2002 and 2003, but no league team has ever cut down the nets.  Kansas won the title when they were in the Big Eight in 1988 and Big Seven in 1952.  Can either drought end this year?  Yes!  Kansas and Texas both have the talent to make a run to the Final Four.

Kansas State is a wildcard team in this tournament.  I don’t think the country’s best player, Michael Beasley, can carry the Wildcats to the Big 12 Tournament Championship, but KSU can beat any team in the league.  They just cannot beat three teams in three days in my opinion.

Baylor and Texas A&M find themselves much in the same boat as Kansas State; they are both good enough to upset Kansas or Texas but not Kansas and Texas.

Oklahoma is better than Baylor and Texas A&M, and the Sooners are about on par with Kansas State.  However, I don’t think OU can beat either Texas or Kansas, and they will have a tough enough time with Baylor in the quarterfinals.  They might win that one, but they will exit in the semifinals against Texas.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will be an interesting first round match of coaches who are sons of legends.  I think the offspring of Eddie Sutton will beat the offspring of Bobby Knight.  As for the Cowboys, once they dispense of Tech, they just might give Texas the scare of their life; heck, they could catch the Longhorns napping and actually pull off the big upset.  If that happens, OSU will be itching to exact some revenge on Oklahoma in the semis.  If they make it to Sunday, and someone like Kansas State has knocked out Kansas, the ‘Pokes might be cutting down the nets.  Thus, OSU is my dark horse choice if one of the big two does not win it.

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor)         

Bubble:                      Kansas State, Texas A&M

Southeastern  @ Atlanta

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#5E South Carolina 13-17  vs. #4W LSU 13-17

#3E Vanderbilt 25-6  vs. #6W Auburn 14-15

#4E Florida 21-10  vs. #5W Alabama 16-15

#6E Georgia 13-16  vs. #3W Ole Miss 21-9

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

[A]: #1E Tennessee 28-3  vs. USC/LSU winner

[B]: #2W Arkansas 20-10  vs. Vand./Aub. Winner

[C]: #1W Mississippi St. 21-9  vs. Fla./Ala. Winner

[D]: #2E Kentucky 18-11  vs. Ga./OM winner

Saturday, March 15

A winner vs. B winner

C winner vs. D winner

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

I wish the SEC would do like the rest of the basketball world and dissolve their divisions like the Big 12 and ACC do.  It makes it hard to set up brackets when you have two of each numbered seed.  That said, this tournament is up for grabs, and I do not expect the top-seeded Tennessee Volunteers to win it.  The Vols have not fared well in the SEC Tournament during the Bruce Pearl era, and I’m not really sure he is concerned about winning it.  The difference between a number one and number two seed is minimal, and his team would benefit from a few more days rest.

So, who should win the tournament?  Let’s eliminate Kentucky, because they don’t have the depth, and their hot shooting is bound to come to an end. 

Vanderbilt isn’t tough enough on the boards, and their only inside threat is too foul prone; also, they would have to win four games in four days, and they don’t have the mental toughness to do that. 

Mississippi State has some questions in their backcourt.  While their frontcourt can dominate anybody, I do not expect the Bulldogs to hide their backcourt deficiencies three consecutive days. 

Arkansas has the talent to go the distance, so let’s make them one of the contenders. 

Florida and Ole Miss are close to having their bubbles burst.  Florida must win at least twice to have any chance, while Ole Miss must still be playing Sunday to get into the discussion.  The Gators have the backcourt strength and just enough inside muscle to make a run to the title.  Ole Miss should get by Georgia (if they do, I expect Bulldog Coach Dennis Felton to get the axe), and they have a decent shot against Kentucky on Friday.  I think that’s as far as they can get in the tourney, if their third round opponent was Mississippi State or Florida.  In the rare event that Alabama won twice, then the Rebels could make it to Sunday.

LSU was a much better team after John Brady left, and by the final weekend, the Tigers were a tough out.  If they beat South Carolina in the opening round, they could be all Tennessee can handle Friday.

Auburn, South Carolina, and Alabama could all win their first game, but don’t expect to see any of them still alive on Saturday.

Georgia has mailed it in, and I’d be shocked if they play Ole Miss close in the first round.

Arkansas is my favorite to pull off the upset.  Kentucky and Mississippi State have the next best chances to win, while Tennessee and Florida are the only other teams I think can win the title.

At-large Teams:       5 (Tennessee, Miss. State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

Bubble:                      Florida, Ole Miss

Southland  @ Katy, TX (near Houston)

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Stephen F. Austin 25-4  vs. #8 Texas San Antonio 13-16

#4 Southeast Louisiana 17-12  vs. #5 Northwestern State 13-17

#2 Lamar 19-10  vs. #7 UT-Arlington 18-11

#3 Sam Houston State 22-7  vs. McNeese State 13-15

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

SFA/UTSA winner vs. SELA/NWST winner

Lamar/UTA winner vs. SHSY/MSU winner

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

Until March 1st, there was a strong possibility that the Southland had a chance at putting two teams into the Field of 65.  Stephen F. Austin won at Oklahoma and at San Diego earlier in the year and moved into the low 40’s in the RPI in late February.  Then, the Lumberjacks lost at home to UT-Arlington, dropping them to the bottom of the bubble.  While they still have an RPI in the same range as Virginia Tech and Villanova, they would only be up for at-large consideration if they lost in the Southland Tournament.  One loss in the tournament would drop them 10 spots or more and out of contention, so the Lumberjacks must win the automatic bid to get into the Dance.

It’s no guarantee that SFA can waltz through this field.  The Lumberjacks will have to defeat either Lamar, Sam Houston, or UT-Arlington in the Championship Game, and any one of that trio can outscore SFA.  

At-large Teams:       0 or 1

Bubble:                      Stephen F. Austin  (road wins against Oklahoma and San Diego)

March 12, 2008

A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 12, 2008, 6th Update

 

A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments

March 12, 2008, 6th Update

Conference Tournament Results through Tuesday, March 11, 2008

America East

1st Three Rounds At Binghamton, NY.  Championship Game At Higher Seed

Opening Round

#8 Stony Brook 73  vs. #9 Maine 65  ot

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Md. Balt. Co. 76  Stony Brook 60

#4 Vermont 65  #5 Binghamton 57

#2 Hartford 68  #7 New Hampshire 65

#6 Boston U. 68  #3 Albany 64  ot

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Md. Balt. Co. 73  Vermont 64

Hartford 59  Boston U. 52

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Hartford 18-15  at Maryland-Baltimore Co. 23-8

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

UMBC didn’t have to play Binghamton, and that made their task much easier.  Hartford had a tough time with two weak opponents to get this far, and the clock will strike midnight for them Saturday.  While these two teams split a pair of one-point games during the regular season, I believe UMBC should win this rubber match by 10 or more points and earn their first trip to the Big Dance, where they could be a #14 seed.  Of particular interest in this championship game will be the match-up of two, small, but beefy forwards.  Hartford’s Warren McLendon and UMBC’s Darryl Proctor will battle it out for close to 40 minutes and make this game worth watching.

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#4 East Tennessee 81 #5 Lipscomb 74

#6 Gardner-Webb 82  #3 Stetson 63

#2 Jacksonville 65  #7 Mercer 57

#1 Belmont 75  #8 Campbell 66

Semifinals

Jacksonville 89 Gardner-Webb 80

Belmont 69 East Tennessee 65

Saturday, March 8

Championship

Belmont 79  Jacksonville 61

The Bruins broke out of their two-game mini-slump and hit the outside shots.  When Belmont gets hot from behind the arc, they are tough against any opponent.  At 25-8, they should not be a #16 or #15 seed playing a Final Four team in the first round like they have the past two seasons.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Big Sky                    

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#4 Idaho State 67  #5 Montana 65

#3 Weber State 65  #6 Montana State 49

Tuesday, March 11 @ Portland, OR

Semifinals

#1 Portland State 72  Idaho State 61

#2 Northern Arizona 75  Weber State 70

Wednesday, March 12 @ Portland, OR

Championship Game

Northern Arizona 21-10  at Portland State 22-9

Portland State has won 13 of its last 14 games.  The Vikings swept Northern Arizona during the season and get to host the championship game.  At home in the Big Sky, PSU went undefeated.  The Viking backcourt is by far the best in the league, and their frontcourt, led by big Canadian Scott Morrison, isn’t exactly a liability. It looks like an easy trip to the Big Dance for Coach Ken Bone and his squad, correct?  Not on your life! 

Northern Arizona has run off six consecutive victories, and the Lumberjacks have a dominating inside presence in Kyle Landry.  In the two games against PSU, Landry didn’t produce in the 14-point loss, but he had a great game in the narrow three-point loss.  He needs to go for about 18 points and 10 rebounds tonight to make this a great game.  The Lumberjacks’ backcourt is strong, but not as strong as their opponent tonight.  If you watch this game, look at how the teams’ two play-makers perform in the early going.  If one has better fluidity running his team’s offense, that may tip you off as to which team is going to win.  For Portland State, look at #10 Jeremiah Dominguez (tiny 5-6 sparkplug); for NAU, monitor #21 Josh Wilson

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Big South

Opening Round

#1 UNC-Asheville 87  #8 Charleston Southern 63

#4 Liberty 103  #5 VMI 88

#2 Winthrop 76  #7 Radford 45

#3 High Point 59  #6 Coastal Carolina 56

Semifinals

UNC-Asheville 75  Liberty 57

Winthrop 61  High Point 53

Saturday, March 8 @ Asheville, NC

Championship Game

Winthrop 66  UNC-Asheville 48

Winthrop’s defense completely shut down the UNCA offense, and the home team panicked when they found themselves down by eight points.  This Eagle team is not as talented as last year’s great squad, but they could cause a headache for the opposing coach in a first-round NCAA Tournament game.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Colonial Athletic Association

All Games Played At Richmond, VA (Virginia Commonwealth host team)

#9 Towson State 81  #8 Towson State 66

#5 William & Mary 58 #12 Georgia State 57

#6 Delaware 60  #11 Drexel 51

#7 Northeastern 73 #10 James Madison 59

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Virginia Commonwealth 57  Towson State 46

William & Mary 63  #4 Old Dominion 60

#3 UNC-Wilmington 82  Delaware 59

#2 George Mason 63  Northeastern 52

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

William & Mary 56  Virginia Commonwealth 54

George Mason 53  UNC-Wilmington 41

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

George Mason 68  William & Mary 59

George Mason’s experience and superior team play earned them another trip to the Dance, but unlike their last appearance in 2006, this one may last just one game.  This team isn’t nearly as strong inside as the Final Four squad, and it will prove costly against a first-round opponent that will more than likely be just as quick and have more muscle.  Expect GMU to be no better than a #13 seed.

VCU is on the bubble, but the Rams just may be NIT-bound.  I expect Coach Anthony Grant to be somewhere else in October.  With a plethora of bigger jobs open, he will be offered a chance to become an instant millionaire.  If his team gets the shaft and doesn’t get an at-large bid, that will convince him to leave VCU for a place where a 24-7 record always gets you in the Field of 65-some place like Baton Rouge, LA.

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                      Virginia Commonwealth 24-7  RPI Avg.: 61.3 *     * = average of four RPIs I can get for free.

Horizon League              

All Games Played At Indianapolis (Butler host team)

Opening Round

#3 Wright State 60  #10 Detroit 37

#6 Valparaiso 75  #7 UW-Green Bay 67

#4 Illinois-Chicago 70  #9 Youngstown State 59

#8 Loyola (Chi.) 57  #5 UW-Milwaukee 51

Quarterfinals

Valparaiso 72  Wright State 67

Illinois-Chicago 60 Loyola (Chi.) 49

Saturday, March 8

Semifinals

#2 Cleveland State 78  Valparaiso 73

#1 Butler 66  Illinois-Chicago 50

Tuesday, March 11

Championship

Butler 70  Cleveland State 55

Butler deserves to be at least a #4-seed and probably a #3-seed.  This Bulldog team may be the best squad in the Midwest this year.  Look at their resume.  They beat Michigan by 14.  They slaughtered Ohio State by 19 on a night where they couldn’t throw it in the ocean but relied on spectacular defense.  They knocked off both Florida State at home and Texas Tech in Lubbock by double digits, and they added a win at Virginia Tech.  They may not be my pick for the mid-major with the best chance of making the Final Four, but no big conference school is going to be happy having them as an opponent.  This team should make the Sweet 16, and if they get a dream draw and don’t have to play teams that have exceptional quickness with poise, they could go deeper.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None (Cleveland State is just below the Bubble and should get a bid to the NIT)

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

All Games Played At Albany, NY (Siena host team)

Opening Round

#8 Manhattan 73  #9 St. Peter’s 59

#10 Canisius 64  #7 Iona 59

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Siena 66  Manhattan 58

#4 Loyola (Md.) 64  #5 Fairfield 59

#2 Rider 75  Canisius 71

#6 Marist 66  #3 Niagara 62

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Siena 65  Loyola (Md.) 63

Rider 76  Marist 71

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

Siena 74  Rider 53

Siena outplayed Rider, and Coach Fran McCaffrey had his squad ready to go, while Rider coach Tommy Dempsey didn’t make the proper adjustments for his squad to stay in contention.  Too many times, Rider put up ridiculous shots when Jason Thompson was still trying to get into position.  Not only did it prevent the league’s most dominant low post player (maybe the best ever out of the MAAC) from dominating inside, it allowed Siena to get a leg up on their possession. 

I don’t see the Saints pulling off an upset like they did when they knocked off Pac-10 champ Stanford almost 20 years ago, but they should keep a first round game close enough not to be embarrassed.

I hope Rider gets a chance to play in the NIT.  Thompson needs more national coverage; he’s going to be tough to defend in the NBA.

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Missouri Valley @ St. Louis (Arch Madness)

Opening Round

#8 Indiana State 71  #9 Wichita State 67

#7 Missouri State 69 #10 Evansville 46

Quarterfinals

#1 Drake 68  Indiana State 46

#4 Creighton 74  #5 Bradley 70

#2 Illinois State 63  Missouri State 58

#6 Northern Iowa 54  #3 Southern Illinois 49

Saturday, March 8

Semifinals

Drake 75 Creighton 67

Illinois State 56 Northern Iowa 42

Sunday, March 9

Championship

Drake 79  Illinois State 49

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                      Illinois State 23-9  RPI avg. 35.5

Drake looked like a Final Four team Sunday.  The Bulldogs’ defense was reminiscent of Jerry Tarkanian’s Amoeba Defense at UNLV in 1990 and 1991.  The team effort was outstanding, and if the Bulldogs continue to play with the same intensity, they will be at least a Sweet 16 team if not an Elite Eight team.  Drake has one Final Four appearance in its history.  In 1969, the Bulldogs had a dominating inside presence with Willie Wise, Willie McCarter, and Dolph Pulliam.  In the six-year run as National Champs spanning from the years of Lew Alcindor/Kareem Abdul Jabbar to Bill Walton, it was the 1969 Drake team that came the closest to dethroning the Bruins.  UCLA almost blew a double digit lead late in the game and had to hold on for a three-point victory.  The Bruins then slaughtered Purdue in the championship, while Drake blew away by 20 points a North Carolina team led by Charlie Scott in the consolation game.

Even though they were embarrassed, Illinois State is firmly on the bubble.  The MVC usually gets multiple teams into the Field of 65, and the Redbirds proved to be the second best team.

Northeast

Quarterfinal

#1 Robert Morris 64  #8 Monmouth 50

#4 Mt. St. Mary’s 80  #5 Quinnipiac 70

#2 Wagner 71  #7 Long Island 62

#3 Sacred Heart 84  #6 Central Connecticut State 71

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Mt. St. Mary’s 83  Robert Morris 65

Sacred Heart 55  Wagner 49

Wednesday, March 12

Championship

Mt. St. Mary’s 17-14 at Sacred Heart 18-13

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

This is a weird set of circumstances here.  Mt. St. Mary’s looked impressive in downing Quinnipiac in the quarterfinals, but what the Mountaineers did to top seed Robert Morris Sunday night was incredible.  They completely destroyed a team that hadn’t lost since January 13th, and now the Mount is the hottest team in the league.

On the other side of the bracket, Sacred Heart held off Wagner to advance to the finals.  It isn’t much of a surprise that the Pioneers have advanced to the championship game, which they will host Wednesday night.  SHU was supposed to be the top dog in the league this year, and the team underachieved.  Maybe, they will right their wrongs this week and grab the crown they were supposed to obtain all along.  With MSM riding an emotional high, it figures they won’t bring their A-game to Fairfield.

Ohio Valley Conference

Quarterfinals @ Higher Seed

#1 Austin Peay 76  #8 Eastern Kentucky 51

#4 UT-Martin 101  #5 Samford 94  3ot

#2 Murray State 77  #7 Tennessee Tech 74

#6 Tennessee State 68  #3 Morehead State 61

Semifinals @ Nashville

Austin Peay 78  UT-Martin 77

Tennessee State 83 Murray State 75

Saturday, March 8

Championship

Austin Peay 82 Tennessee State 64

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

Austin Peay totally dominated the championship game, and it was never in doubt after about 10 minutes of action.  The Governors have a veteran team; they don’t have enough inside muscle to advance in the NCAA Tournament, but if their offense is clicking, they could make it interesting.

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 American 62  #8 Holy Cross 60

#5 Army 64  #4 Lehigh 61 ot

#7 Bucknell 87  #2 Navy 86 3ot

#3 Colgate 76  #6 Lafayette 74

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

American  72 Army 60

Colgate 54  Bucknell 40

Friday, March 14

Championship

Colgate 18-13 at American 20-11

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

This should be a close game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it went to overtime.  American beat Colgate twice by eight points this year, and I expect the Red Raiders to be ready to exact some revenge. 

American has won nine of its last 10 games, and the Eagles have the best backcourt in the Patriot League.  In tournaments, guard play is very important, as the backcourt that makes more errors or forces the fewer errors usually comes from the losing team.  I’ll go with American in this one, which will allow Coach Jeff Jones to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since he was at Virginia in the 1990’s.

Southern Conference

All Games Played At Charleston, SC (College of Charleston host team)

Opening Round

#8 Wofford 58  #9 Western Carolina 49

#7 Elon 52  #10 Furman 37

#6 Charleston 66  #11 Citadel 48

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Davidson 82 Wofford 49

#5 UNC-Greensboro 63  #4 Appalachian State 46

Elon 60  #2 Chattanooga 57

Coll. of Charleston 87  #3 Georgia Southern 73

Sunday, March 9

Semifinals

Davidson 82 UNCG 52

Elon 75  Charleston 61

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

Davidson 65  Elon 49

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None

In the 1973 Belmont Stakes, the great Secretariat ran so far ahead of the field, it was if he took a wrong turn and ended up on another track.  As he was flying down the stretch, the CBS announcer commented that Secretariat was “running like a tremendous machine!”  That’s the way Davidson has been to the rest of the SoCon field.  The Wildcats just show up and play their average game, and that’s good enough to beat any league foe by double digits.  Monday night, the Wildcats did nothing spectacular, but they destroyed Elon in the Championship game. 

What should worry Davidson fans is the fact that this team hasn’t been tested for three months.  The effort that easily won them the conference championship game will not suffice against a Purdue, Mississippi State, Stanford, or Clemson.  It will not get them a win over Butler, Drake, or even San Diego.  It might be enough to beat Winthrop, Siena, or Austin Peay, but this Wildcat team knows it is good enough to play even into April.  If Davidson plays like they did against Wofford and UNC-Greensboro in the first two tournament games or like they did against Georgia Southern in the regular season finale, they can be the 2008 version of George Mason.  They know they can compete against North Carolina, Duke, and UCLA, so there isn’t a team than can intimidate them.  It’s all up to the players; if they bring their A-game to the Dance, they will advance to the Sweet 16 and have a shot at becoming one of the members of the last quartet in the tourney.  They missed by a few seconds of doing just that in 1968 and 1969, when North Carolina edged them by four and two points respectively in the East Regional Finals.

Summit League @ Tulsa (Oral Roberts host team)                  

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 84 #8 Centenary 56

#2 IUPUI 69  #7 Missouri-Kansas City 65

Sunday, March 9

Quarterfinals

#5 IPFW 66  #4 Southern Utah 62

#3 Oakland 80 #6 Western Illinois 66

Monday, March 10

Semifinals

Oral Roberts 58 IPFW 42

IUPUI 80 Oakland 65

Tuesday, March 11

Championship

Oral Roberts 71  IUPUI 64

At-Large Teams:      0

Bubble:                      None (IUPUI’s RPI is too low for consideration)

Oral Roberts takes care of the ball, plays very good defense, and rebounds well.  They rarely beat themselves, but I don’t see the Golden Eagles playing past the first weekend of the Big Dance, and I don’t give them much chance to play more than one game.  I expect they will draw a third or fourth place team from a power conference, and they don’t have the talent to compete against a Connecticut, Oklahoma, Clemson, or Southern Cal.

Sunbelt Conference                   

1st Round

#8 New Orleans 65  #9 Denver 60

#4 Middle Tennessee 74  #13 Louisiana Monroe 69

#12 Troy 70  #5 Louisiana Lafayette 60

#6 North Texas 85  #11 Arkansas State 63

#7 Florida Atlantic 91  #10 Florida International 64

Sunday, March 9 @ Mobile, AL

Quarterfinals

South Alabama 81  New Orleans 77

Middle Tennessee 65  Troy 59

Western Kentucky 84  North Texas 70

Arkansas Little Rock 66  Florida Atlantic 60

Monday, March 10 @ Mobile, AL

Semifinals

Middle Tennessee 82  South Alabama 73

Western Kentucky 70 Arkansas-Little Rock 55

Tuesday, March 11 @ Mobile, AL

Championship

Western Kentucky 67  Middle Tennessee 57

At-Large Teams:      0 or 1

Bubble:                      South Alabama (Avg. RPI 39.3)

Western Kentucky looked like a team that belonged in the Big Dance in the Sunbelt Tournament.  The Hilltoppers handled North Texas, UALR, and MTSU by an average of 13 points.  WKU has enough talent to be a match-up problem for many teams.  I could see the Hilltoppers taking a patient team out of their comfort zone and with the aid of one quick run put a game out of reach.  In a year where at least a half dozen mid-majors have the talent to advance to the Sweet 16, you have to include Western in the mix.  If Jeremy Evans continues to play the way he did in the last two games, this team could make a run at the Final Four.  The only real weakness was a lack of an outstanding post presence, but Evans not only rectified that liability in the semis and finals, he helped offset a shooting slump by star shooter Courtney Lee.

South Alabama will sit on pins and needles until next Sunday.  The Jaguars have an RPI good enough to get them an at-large invitation, but there are still too many tournaments left that could produce a surprise winner and burst some bubbles.

 West Coast Conference

All Games Played At San Diego (San Diego host team)

Opening Round

#5 San Francisco 79  # 8 Loyola Marymount 60

#6 Pepperdine 50  #7 Portland 48  ot

Saturday, March 8

Quarterfinals

#4 Santa Clara 51  San Francisco 50

#3 San Diego 75  Pepperdine 55

Sunday, March 9

#1 Gonzaga 52  Santa Clara 48

San Diego 75  #2 St. Mary’s 69  2ot

Monday, March 10

Championship Game

San Diego 69 Gonzaga 62

At-Large Teams:      0, 1 or 2 (Gonzaga & St. Mary’s)

Bubble:                      St. Mary’s 25-6  Avg. RPI 39.5

                                    Gonzaga 25-7  Avg. RPI 30.3

Here’s where some bubble teams are a bit nervous.  The host team San Diego Toreros knocked off St. Mary’s and Gonzaga.  St. Mary’s and Gonzaga both deserve at-large bids, so three WCC teams getting invitations will hurt teams like Florida, Villanova, Syracuse, Ohio State, Kansas State, and the like.

As for USD, remember this is a team that won at Kentucky this year.  They could win a first round game.

Already Clinched Automatic Berth in NCAA Tournament (12)

 1. Cornell (22-5)-Ivy League Champion

 2. Winthrop (22-11)-Big South Champion

 3. Austin Peay (24-10)-Ohio Valley Champion

 4. Belmont (25-8)-Atlantic Sun Champion

 5. Drake (28-4)-Missouri Valley Champion

 6. George Mason (23-10)-Colonial Champion

 7. Siena (22-10)-Metro Atlantic Champion

 8. Davidson (26-6)-Southern Champion

 9. San Diego (21-13)-West Coast Champion

10. Oral Roberts (24-8)-Summit Champion

11. Western Kentucky (27-6)-Sunbelt Champion

12. Butler (29-3)-Horizon Champion

This may be the best first dozen automatic qualifiers ever.  Of this group, at least six have a chance of winning first round games, while three or four are good enough to make it to the Sweet 16.

Only 53 teams left to go!

Conference Tournaments Beginning Tuesday, March 11

MEAC @ Raleigh, NC

Tuesday, March 11

Opening Round

#7 Coppin State 55  #10 Howard 54

#8 South Carolina State 78  #9 Bethune Cookman 69

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#6 Florida A&M 14-16  vs. #11 Maryland Eastern Shore 4-27

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Hampton 18-11 vs. Coppin State 13-20

#1 Morgan State 20-9 vs. South Carolina State 13-19

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinal Round

#3 Norfolk State 15-14  vs. winner of FAMU-UMES

#4 Delaware State 13-15  vs. #5 North Carolina A&T 15-15

Friday, March 14

Semifinal Round

Morgan St.-SC State  vs. Del. St.-NCAT

Hampton-Coppin vs. Norfolk-FAMU-UMES

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Note: There will be a bonus game prior to the Championship Game to be played between North Carolina Central (3-26) and Winston-Salem State (12-17), two future MEAC teams.

Morgan State gives the MEAC its best chance to win an NCAA Tournament game, but it’s no given they will survive the MEAC Tournament.  Even though the Golden Bears won 13 of their final 14 games, the MEAC Tournament is the Saratoga Race Track of the NCAA-it’s where champions get upset.  Just ask Delaware State last year.  The Hornets were more dominating in 2007 than Morgan State has been this year, but they fell to Florida A&M in the title game. 

Who might be this season’s FAMU?  I’d keep an eye on Jerry Eaves’ North Carolina A&T team.  The Aggies have the depth to win three games in three days, and they have enough scoring options so that somebody will have a hot hand every game.

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None

WAC @ Las Cruces, NM

Tuesday, March 11

Opening Round

#8 San Jose State 64  Louisiana Tech 62

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Utah State 23-9  vs. San Jose State 13-18

#4 Boise State 22-8  vs. Hawaii 11-18

#2 Nevada 20-10  vs. #7 Fresno State 13-18

#3 New Mexico State 19-13  vs. #6 Idaho 8-20

Friday, March 14

Semifinal Round

Utah State-San Jose St.  vs. Boise State-Hawaii

Nevada-Fresno State  vs. New Mexico St.-Idaho

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

In a conference where four teams tied for the regular season championship, it is obvious that the tournament will be interesting with lots of nail-biter games.  If the four co-champions survive to the semifinal round, the WAC will be the talk of the West.  You have to consider New Mexico State the favorite, as they are really tough to beat in Las Cruces.  You have to pull for Utah State this year.  Last season, the Aggies lost in the title game to New Mexico State 72-70.  In 2006, they lost in overtime in the final to Nevada.  One more basket in either year would have won the Championship for them.

Nevada wasn’t supposed to fare this well this season after losing superstar Nick Fazekas to graduation.  Coach Mark Fox may be in the hunt for a big time job soon.

Unfortunately for this league, no team appears to be on the radar screen for at-large consideration.  No team has an RPI average near bubble range.

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None (no team is in the 60’s in RPI)

Conference Tournaments Beginning Wednesday, March 14

Atlantic 10  @ Atlantic City, NJ

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Dayton 20-9  vs. #9 St. Louis 16-14

#5 St. Joseph’s 18-11  vs. #12 Fordham 12-16

#7 LaSalle 14-16  vs. #10 Duquesne 17-12

#6 Charlotte 18-12 vs. #11 Rhode Island 21-10

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Xavier 26-5  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Richmond 16-13  vs. 5/12 winner

#2 Temple 18-12  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Massachusetts 21-9 vs. 6/11 winner

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/8/9 winner  vs. 4/5/12 winner

2/7/10 winner  vs. 3/6/11 winner

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

At-large Teams:       1 or 2 (Xavier for sure, U Mass maybe)

Bubble:                      U Mass

Xavier is in the Big Dance even if they drop their first A-10 Tournament game.  U Mass finished the season on a roll, as Coach Travis Ford had his Minutemen playing like a Rick Pitino Kentucky team out of the 199o’s (gee, I wonder why?)

Rhode Island and Dayton both looked tourney-worthy a couple of months ago, but they are seeded too low to be considered serious at-large candidates.  Dayton would have to beat St. Louis and Xavier to get to the semifinals, and I don’t see that happening.  URI would need victories over Charlotte and U Mass to get to the semis, and while I don’t see that happening either, they have a much better chance of getting there than the Flyers do in their part of the bracket.

Keep an eye on Coach Fran Dunphy’s Temple Owls.  They flew under the radar screen all year, but they have the talent to get to the finals Saturday.  They should have little trouble against LaSalle or Duquesne in the quarterfinals, and they match up well with U Mass in a probable semifinal match.

Big East  @ Madison Square Garden in NYC

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Villanova 19-11  vs. #9 Syracuse 19-12

#5 West Virginia 22-9  vs. #12 Providence 15-15

#7 Pittsburgh 22-9  vs. #10 Cincinnati 13-17

#6 Marquette 22-8  vs. #11 Seton Hall 17-14

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Georgetown 25-4  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Connecticut 24-7  vs. 5/12 winner

#2 Louisville 24-7  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Notre Dame 24-6  vs. 6/11 winner

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5/12

2/7/10  vs. 3/6/11

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

The Big East Tournament is always exciting, especially since the league expanded to 16 teams.  By limiting the tourney to 12 teams, it usually means that eight or more teams have a realistic shot at winning the tournament. 

This year, the most important game may be the opening round match between Villanova and Syracuse.  The winner moves up on the bubble, while the loser can plan on playing another home game in the venerable NIT.

Another interesting opening round game will be the Marquette-Seton Hall contest.  Seton Hall has not at-large hopes, but they have an ideal bracket to be the surprise team.  Their path to the finals would necessitate them beating Marquette, Notre Dame, and Louisville or Pittsburgh.  They would avoid Connecticut and Georgetown, the two tough physical teams they probably cannot beat.

If I had to predict a champion in this Tournament (and it would be a crapshoot pick), I would go with U Conn.  The Huskies know they are in the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome at Madison Square Garden, but I think Jim Calhoun has his squad playing at their peak.  I expect U Conn to make it to the Elite 8.  A Georgetown-U Conn semifinal match will be one for the ages. 

The other team to watch out for in this tournament is West Virginia.  One win guarantees the Mountaineers an at-large bid, and Providence should be the necessary fodder.  WVU and U Conn will make one of the most interesting quarterfinal games of any tournament.

 Yes, the games at MSG should be as exciting and worthy of purchasing a ducat as any Red Sox-Yankees series up in the Bronx.  Give me court-side seats, a couple of Manhattan Kosher hot dogs, and a potato knish (no egg crème needed), and I will be more than happy to attend this tournament and watch every minute of every game.  Since Billy Crystal will be busy playing for the Yankees, I’ll take his seats.

At-large Teams:       7 or 8 (G’town, UL, ND, UConn, WVU, Marq., Pitt)

Bubble:                      Villanova, Syracuse

Big West Tournament  @ Anaheim, CA

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#5 UC-Irvine 15-15  vs. #8 Long Beach State 6-24

#6 Cal Poly 12-17  vs. #7 UC-Riverside 8-20

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#3 Cal State Fullerton 21-8  vs. Lower Seed that wins on Wednesday

#4 Pacific 21-9  vs. Higher Seed that wins on Wednesday

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

#1 UC Santa Barbara 23-7 vs. lowest remaining seed

#2 Cal State Northridge 21-8 vs. highest remaining seed

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

The Big West rewards its top teams.  The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals, while teams three and four receive first round byes.  In this type of seeding, the top two teams have huge advantages and almost always produce the tournament champion.  I expect that to be true here.  Cal State Fullerton and Pacific should win their quarterfinal games and give UCSB and CSN great semifinal games.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Titans or Tigers make it to the finals, but not both.  If only one of the top two seeds advance to the Championship Game, I expect that team to win the automatic bid over the three or four-seed.  UCSB has an excellent backcourt, and it’s the better backcourts that have been winning in conference tournament play so far.  I expect them to beat CS-Fullerton for the Title.

At-large Teams:       0

Bubble:                      None

Conference USA  @ Memphis

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#5 Southern Miss. 17-13  vs. #12 Rice

#8 Marshall 16-13  vs. #9 Tulane 16-14

#7 Tulsa 17-12  vs. #10 East Carolina 11-18

#6 UTEP 17-12  vs. SMU 10-19

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Memphis 30-1  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Central Florida 16-14  vs. 5/12 winner

#2 Ala.-Birmingham 22-9  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Houston 22-8  vs. 6/11 winner

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5/12

2/7/10  vs. 3/6/11

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Back in the late 1930’s the talk every spring amongst the American League baseball teams centered on which team would finish second.  It was a foregone conclusion that the Yankees would finish first by more than a dozen games.  That’s what has become of CUSA basketball.  Memphis is the murderer’s row of the league, and the only thing to decide is the team that will play the part of the Washington Generals to the Tigers in the Championship Game.

UAB and Houston are the co-favorites for making it to the title game.  The Blazers have the easier quarterfinal game, because UTEP could give the Cougars a good run for their money.  The team that loses to Memphis in the finals should be on the upper half of the bubble, while the semifinal loser should see their bubble burst.

At-large Teams:       0 or 1 (Memphis has 99.99% chance of winning automatic bid)

Bubble:                      Tourney Runner-up if it is Houston or UAB

Mid-American Conference @ Cleveland

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Toledo 10-18  vs. #9 Bowling Green 13-16

#5 Miami (O) 15-14  vs. #12 Buffalo 10-19

#7 Eastern Michigan 13-16  vs. #10 Ball State 6-23

#6 Central Michigan 13-16  vs. #11 Northern Illinois 6-21

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Kent State 25-6  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Ohio U 19-11  vs. 5/12 winner

#2 Western Michigan 19-11  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Akron 21-9  vs. 6/11 winner

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5/12

2/7/10  vs. 3/6/11

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

It’s hard to imagine any team playing on Wednesday still playing on Friday.  There was a Grand Canyon-sized difference between the top four teams and the rest of the league.  If the top four teams advance to the semifinals, it should make for exciting basketball on Friday and Saturday.

Kent State has a good shot at getting into the Big Dance if they lose on Saturday.  It the Flashes fall on Friday, then it gets dicey.  Ohio U can knock off the top-seed, and I give the Bobcats about a 45% chance of doing so if they meet in the semis.  On the other side of the bracket, I expect #3-seed Akron to survive to the final round.  The Zips were massacred at Western Michigan in perhaps their worst game of the season.  They will get their revenge in a probable semifinal match.

At-large Teams:       1 (Kent State)

Bubble:                      None

Mountain West  @ Las Vegas

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Wyoming 12-17  vs. Colorado State 6-24

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 BYU 25-6  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 San Diego State 19-11  vs. #5 Air Force 16-13

#2 UNLV 23-7  vs. #7 TCU 14-15

#3 New Mexico 24-7 vs. #6 Utah 16-13

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5

2/7  vs. 3/6

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

The Mountain West Conference always puts on a good show at tournament time.  Being in Vegas makes it all the more worth attending.  This year, the MWC has two at-large worthy teams in BYU and UNLV.  I think both are safe regardless of how they fare in the MWC Tournament.  The question then is can another team win the automatic bid, allowing three teams to make it to the Dance?  The answer is yes!  When he was at Southwest Missouri and Iowa, Coach Steve Alford’s teams performed above their regular season level come tourney time.  He won the Big 10 Tournament one season with a mediocre team.  This year, he has a rather strong New Mexico team, and the Lobos are more than capable of cutting down the nets Saturday.  They will have to get past the host Runnin’ Rebels to make it to the title game, but the Lobos are talented enough to do it. UNM won eight of their final nine games, with the lone loss being an overtime heartbreak against BYU.

The other possible surprise in this tournament could be San Diego State.  After losing their regular season finale to the Falcons, the Aztecs should beat Air Force in the quarterfinals, and they could be primed to upset BYU in the semis.  During the regular season, SDSU matched up well with the top-seeded Cougars.

At-large Teams:       2 (BYU, UNLV)

Bubble:                      New Mexico

Pac-10  @ The Staples Center in Los Angeles

Wednesday, March 12

Opening Round

#8 Washington 16-15  vs. #9 California 15-14

#7 Arizona 18-13  vs. #10 Oregon State 6-24

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 UCLA 28-3  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Southern Cal 20-10  vs. #5 Arizona State 19-11

#2 Stanford 24-6  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Washington State 23-7  vs. Oregon 18-12

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5

2/7/10  vs. 3/6

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

There are several conference tournaments that should be quite exciting, but I expect the Pac-10 Tournament to be an all-out war with nine teams having a chance to cut down the nets.  There are several intangible factors coming into play here.

Top-seed UCLA won not just one but two controversial games at Pauley Pavilion to close out the regular season.  The win over Cal was as bad as a Lyndon Johnson election.  The Golden Bears must get by Washington to have a rematch with the Bruins, and if that game comes about, I expect it to be one where there could be a fight if the game gets rough.  It’s not a foregone conclusion that Cal will make it to the second round, as Washington is fighting for its post-season life.  While the Huskies never got their formerly strong offense untracked, they showed signs of life in the second half of the Pac-10 schedule.  Cal and UW split their games this season with the visiting team winning both time.  It should be a great game.

The USC-Arizona State game on Thursday will be an interesting one to watch.  The Trojans finished the regular season winning five of six games, and that one loss came at Arizona State.  The Sun Devils need to win at least two games and maybe the tournament to get into the Dance.

With the announcement that Lute Olson plans on returning to Arizona next season dominating the headlines in Tucson, I expect the Wildcats to be distracted just enough to struggle with lifeless Oregon State in the first round and go home after losing to Stanford in the quarterfinals.  I expect the Cardinal to be in the semifinals against a surprising Oregon Ducks squad.  I expect Oregon, playing for Coach Ernie Kent’s job, to upset Washington State in the quarterfinals after losing to the Cougars twice in the regular season.  The Ducks are on the bottom of the bubble heading to LA, and they need to win at least twice to have a realistic shot.  This Duck team underachieved this year, and they have the talent to make it to Saturday.

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Southern Cal)

Bubble:                      Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon

S W A C  @ Birmingham

Wednesday, March 12

Quarterfinals

#1 Alabama State 19-9  vs. #8 Texas Southern 7-24

#2 Mississippi Valley 14-15  vs. #7 Grambling 7-18

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#3 Alabama A&M 14-14  vs. #6 Arkansas Pine Bluff 12-17

#4 Jackson State 12-19  vs. #5 Southern 11-18

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

Ala. St. or Tx Sou.  vs. Jackson St. or Southern

Miss Vall. or Grambling vs. Ala. A&M or Ark.-OB

Saturday, March 15

Championship Game

Alabama State handily won the regular season SWAC title and became the only team to finish the year with a winning record.  If they don’t win the conference tournament, this league will field possibly the weakest ever NCAA Play-in Round participant.

It’s no given that the Hornets will win the tourney.  They lost at home to Alcorn State, a team that finished 7-24 and lost to Tougaloo (an NAIA team that finished fourth in its conference).  #2-seed Mississippi Valley won their final six games, but they too lost to Alcorn State. 

So, if this tournament is really up for grabs, like I believe it is, which dark horse team might emerge as the upset champion and advance to Dayton, Ohio, March 18th?  I think Jackson State has a good chance at beating Southern in the first round and upsetting Alabama State in the semis.  It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Arkansas Pine Bluff make it to the finals as well.

One caveat:  The top two seeds get an a day off if they win their opening round games, and that could be just enough to get them to the title game.  The SWAC would love nothing more than to see Alabama State win three games and enter the Dance at 22-9.  Imagine Texas Southern winning the tournament and making it at 10-24.  It isn’t that far of a stretch, as the Tigers have a history of playing much better in March.  At least they took Alcorn State to overtime before losing.

At-large Teams:       0         

Bubble:                      None

Conference Tournaments Beginning Thursday, March 13

Atlantic Coast  @ Charlotte, NC

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#8 Wake Forest 17-12  vs. #9 Florida State 18-13

#5 Miami 21-9  vs. #12 North Carolina State 15-15

#7 Georgia Tech 14-16  vs. #10 Virginia 15-14

#6 Maryland 18-13  vs. #11 Boston College 13-16

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 North Carolina 29-2  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Virginia Tech 18-12  vs. 5/12 winner

#2 Duke 26-4  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Clemson 22-8  vs. 6/11 winner

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5/12

2/7/10  vs. 3/6/11

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

It’s the ACC that we owe the idea of the post-season tournament and the shot clock.  This league has always fielded a post-season tournament to decide its official NCAA Tournament team, even in the days when just one team went per major conference.  Because of this, some underdogs decided to try to win by stalling the ball.  In the days before a shot clock, it led to boring games some years and a downright farce in another year.  North Carolina State upset Duke 12-10 in the semifinals 40 years ago.  They upset South Carolina in the 1970 Championship Game by stalling and winning 42-39.

Thankfully, that can no longer happen.  So, what do I expect from the 2008 ACC Tournament?  I don’t expect a repeat of 1976 when second to last place (4-8 in the ACC) Virginia, led by Wonderful Wally Walker, upset North Carolina State, Maryland, and North Carolina (all ranked) to win the title.  None of the bottom four teams have a chance.  The middle four teams have some quality talent.  I especially like Miami and expect the Hurricanes to beat NC State and Virginia Tech to earn a trip to the semifinals.  Once there, they would almost assuredly face North Carolina, a team they fell to by 16 points at home.  I don’t think they can get to the final, but a trip to the semis will give the ‘Canes a better seeding in the Dance.

Duke can be beaten inside, but in tournament play, it almost always comes down to backcourt play.  The Blue Devils should comfortably win their quarterfinal match against either Georgia Tech or Virginia.  Their semifinal game would pit them against Maryland or Clemson (or Boston College if the Eagles pulled off two upsets).  This year, the Terps and Tigers didn’t handle the Duke offense too well.  It means there is a good possibility that the big two could face off one more time for the ACC title.  If Clemson could somehow survive and make it to the Championship Game against North Carolina, that would make for terrific copy.   The Tar Heels have been Clemson’s nemesis for decades, and this season may have been the worst example.  UNC beat CU twice in overtime.

As for the three bubble teams, in order to have a realistic shot, it’s semifinals or bust for the Hokies, Terps, and ‘Noles.

At-large Teams:       4, 5, or 6 (UNC, Duke, Clem, Miami)      

Bubble:                      Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida State

Big 10  @ Indianapolis, IN

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#8 Iowa 13-18  vs. #9 Michigan 9-21

#7 Penn State 15-15  vs. #10 Illinois 13-18

#6 Minnesota 18-12  vs. #11 Northwestern 8-21

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 Wisconsin 26-4  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Michigan State 24-7  vs. #5 Ohio State 19-12

#2 Purdue 24-7  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Indiana 25-6  vs. 6/11 winner

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5

2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

I’ve had the opportunity to follow the Big 10 closer this season than ever before, and I have to say I was a little disappointed.  I believe I am witnessing the same thing in basketball that happened to this conference in football.  Four teams have incredible muscle and finesse, but none of them have the quickness to go deep into the tourney.  I’d be surprised to see more than one team make the Sweet 16, and I don’t see any Big 10 team making the Final Four or maybe the Elite Eight.

Wisconsin lost two close games to Purdue but aced the rest of the league.  Indiana braved a late-season coaching change and didn’t play as well under Dan Dakich.  Purdue lost two of their final five games, while Michigan State split its final 10 games.  Ohio State lost six times in February.  So, the Badgers have to be considered the overwhelming favorite in Indianapolis.  Among the also-rans, the winner of the Penn State and Illinois game has the best chance of breaking through with a big upset and crashing into the semifinals.   That would mean Purdue would be a quarterfinal victim.  I’d also keep a close eye on Minnesota.  If Tubby Smith’s Gophers get by Northwestern (they should win by 15-20 points), they have a decent shot against Indiana in the next round.  That could conceivably lead to Minnesota playing Illinois or Penn State for a berth in the finals.  If the Gophers make it to Sunday, they would then have to get by arch-rival Wisconsin for a trip to the Big Dance.  I’ll stick with the Badgers to win the tournament and enter NCAA play as the league’s one true threat to advance past the Sweet 16.

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State) 

Bubble:                      Ohio State

Big 12  @ Kansas City

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#8 Texas Tech 16-14  vs. #9 Oklahoma State 16-14

#5 Baylor 21-9  vs. #12 Colorado 11-19

#7 Nebraska 18-11  vs. #10 Missouri 16-15

#6 Texas A&M 22-9  vs. #11 Iowa State 14-17

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

#1 Texas 26-5  vs. 8/9 winner

#4 Oklahoma 21-10  vs. 5/12 winner

#2 Kansas 28-3  vs. 7/10 winner

#3 Kansas State 20-10  vs. 6/11 winner

Saturday, March 15

Semifinals

1/8/9  vs. 4/5/12

2/7/10  vs. 3/6/11

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

No Big 12 team has appeared in the Final Four in the last four tournaments.  The Big 12 placed two teams in the Final Four in both 2002 and 2003, but no league team has ever cut down the nets.  Kansas won the title when they were in the Big Eight in 1988 and Big Seven in 1952.  Can either drought end this year?  Yes!  Kansas and Texas both have the talent to make a run to the Final Four.

Kansas State is a wildcard team in this tournament.  I don’t think the country’s best player, Michael Beasley, can carry the Wildcats to the Big 12 Tournament Championship, but KSU can beat any team in the league.  They just cannot beat three teams in three days in my opinion.

Baylor and Texas A&M find themselves much in the same boat as Kansas State; they are both good enough to upset Kansas or Texas but not Kansas and Texas.

Oklahoma is better than Baylor and Texas A&M, and the Sooners are about on par with Kansas State.  However, I don’t think OU can beat either Texas or Kansas, and they will have a tough enough time with Baylor in the quarterfinals.  They might win that one, but they will exit in the semifinals against Texas.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will be an interesting first round match of coaches who are sons of legends.  I think the offspring of Eddie Sutton will beat the offspring of Bobby Knight.  As for the Cowboys, once they dispense of Tech, they just might give Texas the scare of their life; heck, they could catch the Longhorns napping and actually pull off the big upset.  If that happens, OSU will be itching to exact some revenge on Oklahoma in the semis.  If they make it to Sunday, and someone like Kansas State has knocked out Kansas, the ‘Pokes might be cutting down the nets.  Thus, OSU is my dark horse choice if one of the big two does not win it.

At-large Teams:       4 or 5 (Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor)         

Bubble:                      Kansas State, Texas A&M

Southeastern  @ Atlanta

Thursday, March 13

Opening Round

#5E South Carolina 13-17  vs. #4W LSU 13-17

#3E Vanderbilt 25-6  vs. #6W Auburn 14-15

#4E Florida 21-10  vs. #5W Alabama 16-15

#6E Georgia 13-16  vs. #3W Ole Miss 21-9

Friday, March 14

Quarterfinals

[A]: #1E Tennessee 28-3  vs. USC/LSU winner

[B]: #2W Arkansas 20-10  vs. Vand./Aub. Winner

[C]: #1W Mississippi St. 21-9  vs. Fla./Ala. Winner

[D]: #2E Kentucky 18-11  vs. Ga./OM winner

Saturday, March 15

A winner vs. B winner

C winner vs. D winner

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

I wish the SEC would do like the rest of the basketball world and dissolve their divisions like the Big 12 and ACC do.  It makes it hard to set up brackets when you have two of each numbered seed.  That said, this tournament is up for grabs, and I do not expect the top-seeded Tennessee Volunteers to win it.  The Vols have not fared well in the SEC Tournament during the Bruce Pearl era, and I’m not really sure he is concerned about winning it.  The difference between a number one and number two seed is minimal, and his team would benefit from a few more days rest.

So, who should win the tournament?  Let’s eliminate Kentucky, because they don’t have the depth, and their hot shooting is bound to come to an end. 

Vanderbilt isn’t tough enough on the boards, and their only inside threat is too foul prone; also, they would have to win four games in four days, and they don’t have the mental toughness to do that. 

Mississippi State has some questions in their backcourt.  While their frontcourt can dominate anybody, I do not expect the Bulldogs to hide their backcourt deficiencies three consecutive days.  

Arkansas has the talent to go the distance, so let’s make them one of the contenders. 

Florida and Ole Miss are close to having their bubbles burst.  Florida must win at least twice to have any chance, while Ole Miss must still be playing Sunday to get into the discussion.  The Gators have the backcourt strength and just enough inside muscle to make a run to the title.  Ole Miss should get by Georgia (if they do, I expect Bulldog Coach Dennis Felton to get the axe), and they have a decent shot against Kentucky on Friday.  I think that’s as far as they can get in the tourney, if their third round opponent was Mississippi State or Florida.  In the rare event that Alabama won twice, then the Rebels could make it to Sunday.

LSU was a much better team after John Brady left, and by the final weekend, the Tigers were a tough out.  If they beat South Carolina in the opening round, they could be all Tennessee can handle Friday.

Auburn, South Carolina, and Alabama could all win their first game, but don’t expect to see any of them still alive on Saturday.

Georgia has mailed it in, and I’d be shocked if they play Ole Miss close in the first round.

Arkansas is my favorite to pull off the upset.  Kentucky and Mississippi State have the next best chances to win, while Tennessee and Florida are the only other teams I think can win the title.

At-large Teams:       5 (Tennessee, Miss. State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

Bubble:                      Florida, Ole Miss

Southland  @ Katy, TX (near Houston)

Thursday, March 13

Quarterfinals

#1 Stephen F. Austin 25-4  vs. #8 Texas San Antonio 13-16

#4 Southeast Louisiana 17-12  vs. #5 Northwestern State 13-17

#2 Lamar 19-10  vs. #7 UT-Arlington 18-11

#3 Sam Houston State 22-7  vs. McNeese State 13-15

Friday, March 14

Semifinals

SFA/UTSA winner vs. SELA/NWST winner

Lamar/UTA winner vs. SHSY/MSU winner

Sunday, March 16

Championship Game

Until March 1st, there was a strong possibility that the Southland had a chance at putting two teams into the Field of 65.  Stephen F. Austin won at Oklahoma and at San Diego earlier in the year and moved into the low 40’s in the RPI in late February.  Then, the Lumberjacks lost at home to UT-Arlington, dropping them to the bottom of the bubble.  While they still have an RPI in the same range as Virginia Tech and Villanova, they would only be up for at-large consideration if they lost in the Southland Tournament.  One loss in the tournament would drop them 10 spots or more and out of contention, so the Lumberjacks must win the automatic bid to get into the Dance.

It’s no guarantee that SFA can waltz through this field.  The Lumberjacks will have to defeat either Lamar, Sam Houston, or UT-Arlington in the Championship Game, and any one of that trio can outscore SFA.  

At-large Teams:       0 or 1

Bubble:                      Stephen F. Austin  (road wins against Oklahoma and San Diego)

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