PiRate Ratings College Football–November 9-13, 2021

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This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Buffalo	7.7	7.0	6.0
Eastern Michigan	Ohio U	11.7	9.9	9.1
Western Michigan	Akron	19.2	20.6	20.4
Bowling Green	Toledo	-19.4	-18.7	-19.8
Central Michigan	Kent St.	8.0	5.7	6.7
Northern Illinois	Ball St.	-3.2	-3.9	-2.6
Pittsburgh	North Carolina	3.0	3.7	2.0
South Florida	Cincinnati	-25.4	-25.3	-26.5
Boise St.	Wyoming	17.9	17.7	18.3
Kansas St.	West Virginia	0.6	1.6	1.6
Coastal Carolina	Georgia St.	17.2	16.2	17.1
Clemson	Connecticut	46.8	46.3	50.0
Iowa	Minnesota	9.2	8.1	8.5
Virginia Tech	Duke	18.9	17.5	18.8
Georgia Tech	Boston College	1.8	1.9	1.8
Penn St.	Michigan	3.7	3.5	4.9
Indiana	Rutgers	11.6	9.4	11.1
Temple	Houston	-26.8	-25.0	-27.2
Michigan St.	Maryland	10.4	11.7	12.3
Louisville	Syracuse	5.2	4.8	6.1
Oklahoma St.	TCU	10.6	11.5	11.1
Texas	Kansas	35.9	36.1	38.8
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	0.9	0.8	0.9
Baylor	Oklahoma	-7.3	-6.4	-7.4
Virginia	Notre Dame	-5.6	-5.4	-7.4
Wisconsin	Northwestern	22.8	22.3	24.3
Rice	Western Kentucky	-9.5	-11.1	-11.5
Arizona	Utah	-22.2	-22.3	-22.2
Appalachian St.	South Alabama	16.8	16.7	19.1
UCLA	Colorado	12.7	13.3	13.8
Washington	Arizona St.	-1.5	-0.9	-1.3
UNLV	Hawaii	-1.7	-2.0	-1.4
Oregon	Washington St.	11.3	11.4	12.8
Oregon St.	Stanford	11.0	10.6	11.4
California	USC	-5.1	-1.8	-3.1
Memphis	East Carolina	-3.8	-3.0	-4.1
Auburn	Mississippi St.	10.0	9.1	9.9
Louisiana Tech	Charlotte	8.0	7.3	5.4
Texas Tech	Iowa St.	-16.0	-14.7	-16.6
Troy	Louisiana	-13.5	-11.9	-12.8
Old Dominion	Florida Atlantic	-11.1	-11.3	-10.5
SMU	Central Florida	3.6	4.9	2.5
Missouri	South Carolina	1.5	1.9	1.5
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-27.1	-28.8	-28.6
UTSA	Southern Miss.	31.2	31.4	32.0
Alabama	New Mexico St.	61.3	60.0	63.4
Ole Miss	Texas A&M	-1.4	-2.3	-2.1
Tennessee	Georgia	-22.0	-22.5	-23.0
Ohio St.	Purdue	23.6	23.5	23.0
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	-3.7	-2.8	-3.3
Marshall	UAB	4.3	4.4	5.1
LSU	Arkansas	0.6	1.5	2.2
Texas St.	Georgia Southern	-1.0	-2.9	-2.0
Middle Tennessee	Florida Int’l.	17.6	17.5	18.0
Tulane	Tulsa	1.0	0.2	2.2
North Texas	UTEP	0.6	-0.3	1.3
Louisiana-Monroe	Arkansas St.	0.1	-0.3	-0.5
Fresno St.	New Mexico	21.4	22.6	24.7
Colorado St.	Air Force	-6.5	-6.6	-7.2
San Jose St.	Utah St.	5.3	4.6	4.0
San Diego St.	Nevada	2.6	1.2	1.7

FBS vs. FCS Games This Week

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Florida	Samford	31.2
Massachusetts	Maine	1.8
Army	Bucknell	38.8

FBS Teams With The Week Off

BYU

Illinois

Liberty

Navy

Nebraska

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	135.4
2	Alabama	130.6
3	Ohio St.	129.5
4	Oklahoma	122.4
5	Texas A&M	120.8
6	Iowa St.	120.6
7	Utah	117.9
8	Cincinnati	117.6
9	Wisconsin	117.4
10	Oklahoma St.	117.2
11	Auburn	117.0
12	Penn St.	115.9
13	Ole Miss	115.8
14	Notre Dame	115.0
15	Michigan	114.8
16	Oregon	113.7
17	Texas	113.4
18	Clemson	113.4
19	Iowa	113.3
20	Arkansas	113.2
21	Baylor	112.4
22	NC State	112.3
23	Wake Forest	111.7
24	Florida	111.6
25	L S U	111.6
26	Arizona St.	111.3
27	West Virginia	110.7
28	Kentucky	110.6
29	Mississippi St.	110.3
30	North Carolina	110.3
31	Pittsburgh	110.1
32	Tennessee	109.9
33	Michigan St.	109.7
34	Coastal Carolina	109.6
35	BYU	109.4
36	Miami (Fla.)	109.4
37	Nebraska	109.2
38	T C U	109.2
39	Purdue	109.1
40	Kansas St.	109.0
41	U C L A	108.8
42	Oregon St.	108.4
43	U S C	108.1
44	Louisiana	108.0
45	Minnesota	107.6
46	Washington	107.0
47	Boise St.	106.9
48	Appalachian St.	106.0
49	Virginia	105.9
50	Washington St.	104.9
51	Houston	104.7
52	Louisville	104.1
53	Florida St.	104.1
54	Liberty	103.3
55	SMU	102.7
56	Nevada	102.6
57	U T S A	102.4
58	UCF	102.0
59	Indiana	101.9
60	Texas Tech	101.8
61	Syracuse	101.8
62	California	101.8
63	Boston College	101.4
64	San Diego St.	101.4
65	Air Force	101.3
66	Maryland	101.2
67	Virginia Tech	101.1
68	South Carolina	100.9
69	Fresno St.	100.8
70	Georgia Tech	100.8
71	East Carolina	100.7
72	Stanford	100.4
73	Army	100.4
74	Missouri	99.5
75	Colorado	98.5
76	Illinois	98.0
77	Marshall	98.0
78	Toledo	97.1
79	Miami (Ohio)	96.6
80	U A B	96.4
81	Northwestern	96.2
82	Central Michigan	95.9
83	Ball St.	95.6
84	Eastern Michigan	95.4
85	Georgia St.	95.3
86	Tulsa	95.3
87	Memphis	94.6
88	San Jose St.	94.5
89	Western Kentucky	94.5
90	Rutgers	94.2
91	Tulane	93.9
92	Western Michigan	93.2
93	Colorado St.	93.0
94	Utah St.	92.9
95	Troy	92.8
96	Arizona	92.7
97	Florida Atlantic	92.5
98	Buffalo	92.1
99	Wyoming	92.0
100	Kent St.	91.6
101	South Alabama	91.5
102	Hawaii	90.8
103	Navy	90.0
104	Northern Illinois	89.9
105	USF	88.9
106	Middle Tennessee	88.3
107	Ohio	87.7
108	Georgia Southern	86.3
109	Duke	85.7
110	U N L V	85.1
111	U T E P	84.5
112	Louisiana Tech	83.3
113	North Texas	83.0
114	Arkansas St.	82.4
115	Texas St.	81.9
116	Rice	81.3
117	New Mexico	80.9
118	Vanderbilt	80.4
119	UL-Monroe	79.6
120	Kansas	79.5
121	Old Dominion	79.0
122	Charlotte	78.9
123	Bowling Green	76.3
124	Temple	75.8
125	Akron	75.7
126	Southern Miss.	73.4
127	Florida Int’l.	73.1
128	New Mexico St.	72.0
129	Connecticut	68.7
130	UMass	66.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	117.4	116.8	118.7	117.6
Houston	104.8	103.9	105.3	104.7
SMU	102.5	102.6	103.0	102.7
UCF	101.9	100.7	103.5	102.0
East Carolina	100.3	100.1	101.7	100.7
Tulsa	95.4	95.2	95.3	95.3
Memphis	94.1	94.5	95.2	94.6
Tulane	93.9	92.8	95.0	93.9
Navy	89.9	89.7	90.5	90.0
USF	89.0	88.5	89.2	88.9
Temple	75.5	76.4	75.6	75.8
AAC Averages	96.8	96.5	97.5	96.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	113.1	113.0	114.1	113.4
NC State	112.2	112.0	112.7	112.3
Wake Forest	111.6	111.3	112.1	111.7
Louisville	103.8	103.6	105.0	104.1
Florida St.	103.9	104.1	104.3	104.1
Syracuse	101.6	101.9	101.9	101.8
Boston College	101.4	101.4	101.5	101.4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	109.8	109.8	111.2	110.3
Pittsburgh	109.8	110.5	110.2	110.1
Miami (Fla.)	109.7	108.9	109.6	109.4
Virginia	105.6	106.5	105.5	105.9
Virginia Tech	101.7	100.8	100.7	101.1
Georgia Tech	100.7	100.8	100.8	100.8
Duke	85.8	86.4	84.8	85.7
ACC Averages	105.0	105.1	105.3	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	123.3	121.6	122.4	122.4
Iowa St.	121.2	119.8	120.7	120.6
Oklahoma St.	117.5	117.2	117.0	117.2
Texas	114.5	112.7	113.1	113.4
Baylor	113.0	112.3	112.0	112.4
West Virginia	112.0	110.4	109.8	110.7
T C U	109.9	108.7	108.9	109.2
Kansas St.	109.5	109.0	108.4	109.0
Texas Tech	102.2	102.2	101.1	101.8
Kansas	81.6	79.6	77.3	79.5
Big 12 Averages	110.5	109.3	109.1	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	129.1	129.0	130.4	129.5
Penn St.	114.9	115.5	117.2	115.9
Michigan	114.2	115.0	115.3	114.8
Michigan St.	109.5	109.6	109.9	109.7
Indiana	101.9	101.6	102.0	101.9
Maryland	102.1	100.9	100.6	101.2
Rutgers	93.3	95.2	93.9	94.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	116.9	116.7	118.5	117.4
Iowa	113.1	112.7	114.0	113.3
Nebraska	108.9	109.1	109.7	109.2
Purdue	108.5	108.5	110.4	109.1
Minnesota	106.9	107.6	108.5	107.6
Illinois	97.6	98.0	98.5	98.0
Northwestern	96.1	96.4	96.2	96.2
Big Ten Averages	108.1	108.3	108.9	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	97.6	97.9	98.6	98.0
Western Kentucky	93.3	94.9	95.4	94.5
Florida Atlantic	92.0	93.0	92.4	92.5
Middle Tennessee	87.9	88.1	88.8	88.3
Old Dominion	78.4	79.3	79.4	79.0
Charlotte	78.2	79.1	79.4	78.9
Florida Int’l.	72.8	73.1	73.3	73.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	102.0	102.7	102.6	102.4
U A B	96.3	96.5	96.4	96.4
U T E P	84.2	85.4	83.7	84.5
Louisiana Tech	83.7	83.9	82.3	83.3
North Texas	82.8	83.1	83.0	83.0
Rice	81.3	81.3	81.4	81.3
Southern Miss.	73.3	73.7	73.0	73.4
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.4	86.3
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	114.2	114.9	115.9	115.0
BYU	109.5	109.1	109.7	109.4
Liberty	102.9	103.4	103.6	103.3
Army	100.5	100.4	100.2	100.4
New Mexico St.	72.3	72.9	70.8	72.0
Connecticut	69.3	69.8	67.1	68.7
UMass	67.2	66.6	64.5	66.1
Indep. Averages	90.9	91.0	90.3	90.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	98.0	96.4	95.3	96.6
Buffalo	92.8	91.9	91.7	92.1
Kent St.	91.4	92.5	91.0	91.6
Ohio	87.3	88.1	87.7	87.7
Bowling Green	76.8	77.0	75.0	76.3
Akron	76.9	75.6	74.6	75.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	97.8	97.2	96.3	97.1
Central Michigan	96.9	95.7	95.2	95.9
Ball St.	96.6	96.1	94.2	95.6
Eastern Michigan	96.6	95.4	94.3	95.4
Western Michigan	93.5	93.7	92.4	93.2
Northern Illinois	90.9	89.7	89.1	89.9
MAC Averages	91.3	90.8	89.7	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.4	106.7	107.6	106.9
Air Force	101.0	101.2	101.8	101.3
Colorado St.	93.0	93.0	93.1	93.0
Utah St.	92.5	93.4	92.8	92.9
Wyoming	91.6	92.0	92.4	92.0
New Mexico	81.4	81.3	79.9	80.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Nevada	102.1	103.2	102.4	102.6
San Diego St.	101.7	101.4	101.2	101.4
Fresno St.	99.9	100.9	101.7	100.8
San Jose St.	94.8	95.0	93.8	94.5
Hawaii	91.1	90.8	90.5	90.8
U N L V	85.4	84.9	85.2	85.1
MWC Averages	95.1	95.3	95.2	95.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	112.7	113.9	114.7	113.7
Oregon St.	108.2	108.5	108.5	108.4
Washington	106.3	107.4	107.4	107.0
Washington St.	104.4	105.4	104.9	104.9
California	100.0	103.0	102.4	101.8
Stanford	100.2	100.9	100.1	100.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	117.8	118.0	118.0	117.9
Arizona St.	110.8	111.4	111.7	111.3
U C L A	108.6	108.9	109.0	108.8
U S C	108.0	107.8	108.4	108.1
Colorado	98.8	98.6	98.2	98.5
Arizona	92.6	92.7	92.8	92.7
Pac-12 Averages	105.7	106.4	106.3	106.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	134.9	135.3	136.2	135.4
Florida	111.1	112.2	111.6	111.6
Kentucky	110.0	111.2	110.5	110.6
Tennessee	109.8	109.7	110.2	109.9
South Carolina	101.4	101.0	100.4	100.9
Missouri	99.8	99.9	98.9	99.5
Vanderbilt	80.9	80.4	79.9	80.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
Texas A&M	120.3	121.0	120.9	120.8
Auburn	117.1	116.6	117.4	117.0
Ole Miss	115.9	115.7	115.8	115.8
Arkansas	113.4	113.3	112.8	113.2
L S U	111.0	111.8	112.0	111.6
Mississippi St.	110.1	110.5	110.4	110.3
SEC Averages	111.9	112.0	112.0	112.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	110.2	108.6	110.0	109.6
Appalachian St.	105.6	105.4	107.1	106.0
Georgia St.	95.6	94.9	95.4	95.3
Troy	92.6	92.8	93.0	92.8
Georgia Southern	86.4	86.6	86.0	86.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	108.6	107.2	108.3	108.0
South Alabama	91.8	91.7	91.0	91.5
Arkansas St.	82.6	82.7	81.8	82.4
Texas St.	82.9	81.2	81.5	81.9
UL-Monroe	80.1	79.9	78.8	79.6
Sun Averages	93.6	93.1	93.3	93.3

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.0
2	Big 12	109.6
3	Big Ten	108.4
4	Pac-12	106.1
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American Athletic	96.9
7	Mountain West	95.2
8	Sun Belt	93.3
9	Independents	90.7
10	Mid-American	90.6
11	Conference USA	86.3

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	UTSA	Kent St.
Cure	Air Force	Coastal Carolina
Boca	Memphis	Florida Atlantic
New Mexico	UTEP	Fresno St.
Independence	BYU	Marshall
Lending Tree	Central Michigan	Appalachian St.
L. A.	San Diego St.	USC
New Orleans	UAB	Louisiana
Myrtle Beach	Middle Tennessee	Miami (O)
Famous Idaho Potato	Northern Illinois	Boise St.
Frisco	San Jose St.	Western Michigan
Armed Forces	Washington St.	Army
Gasparilla	Florida	Houston
Hawaii	Central Florida	Nevada
Camellia	Ball St.	Troy
Quick Lane	Eastern Michigan	Wyoming
Military	Louisville	East Carolina
Birmingham	Liberty	Western Kentucky
First Responder	Syracuse	Oregon St.
Liberty	West Virginia	Missouri
Holiday	Virginia	UCLA
Guaranteed Rate	Maryland	Texas
Fenway	SMU	Boston College
Pinstripe	Clemson	Minnesota
Cheez-It	Miami (Fla.)	Iowa St.
Alamo	Baylor	Utah
Duke’s Mayo	Wake Forest	Mississippi St.
Music City	Penn St.	Tennessee
Las Vegas	Purdue	Arizona St.
Tax Slayer Gator	Pittsburgh	Arkansas
Tony The Tiger Sun	North Carolina	Washington
Arizona	Toledo	Utah St.
Citrus	Wisconsin	Ole Miss
Outback	Iowa	Kentucky
Texas	Kansas St.	Auburn
Peach	North Carolina St.	Cincinnati
Fiesta	Notre Dame	Michigan
Rose	Oregon	Michigan St.
Sugar	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Cotton	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Orange	Georgia	Alabama
Championship	Georgia	Ohio St.

Fire The Coach!

The firing of football coaches began early this year. Quick openings at USC, Connecticut, Georgia Southern, LSU, Texas Tech, and TCU plus the firing of Washington State coach Nick Rolovich for failure to obtain the required Covid Vaccine, makes a record seven coaches fired in the middle of a season. If fans in the Sunshine State had their way, two more head coaches would join that list, maybe three if Florida International had a fanbase.

I never publish the over-the-top negative emails, texts, and comments when an upset fan wants to go on a tirade seeking the loss of a coach’s job. Instead, I usually reply privately to the commenter asking him to explain what the coach is not doing that other successful coaches are doing. Usually, the answer is always either play-calling or personnel decisions.

“If Coach Smith had put Billy Jones in at quarterback in September, and sent in longer passing plays, we’d be 9-0 right now,” is a typical type of response. My reply back to them most of the time includes video of the fan’s team and the top team in the country, running virtually the same offense. Whereas. the top team’s QB gets 3.5 seconds to locate a receiver, and he’s passing to three future NFL receivers, the fan’s teams’ QB gets less than 2 seconds to locate a receiver that is months away from selling insurance, teaching at a Middle School, or working at a sports radio station. When the top team plays a Cover 2 Combo defense, their five underneath defenders stick to the other team’s receivers like glue, and the safeties can play a but closer to the line of scrimmage, because they are sprinters that won’t be beaten deep. When the fan’s team uses the same defense, two or three of the underneath defenders lose their assignment, and the safeties have to play another 5 yards off the ball to keep from being beat deep by superior athletes. When the top team runs an inside zone blast play, their offensive line quickly controls the initial defensive surge and then take care of the linebackers. The fan’s team’s offensive line briefly opens a running lane in the first second after the snap, but by the time the running back gets the ball and arrives at the line of scrimmage, he faces a blockade.

How much of football success in a college game is determined by which team has more talent? The correct answer is somewhere between 80 and 90%! As legendary coach John Wooden stated in one of his famous quotes, “The team with the better players almost always wins.” He said that about basketball, and it is even more true in football, where quicker, and stronger means more to the sport’s success than everything else.

Look at the top recruiting classes of the last five seasons. The best cumulative classes and the best teams this year are strongly correlated. It isn’t a perfect one to one, but if your favorite team has had five consecutive top 10 classes, and your buddy’s favorite teas has had five consecutive recruiting classes in the 20-40 range, chances are about 90% that your team is going to beat his team when they play.

Coaching is not a difficult task. 130 head coaches at the collegiate level know how to teach the game to their players. 130 college strength and conditioning coaches know how to get players beefed up. Find 130 people between the ages of 35 and 60 in your neighborhood with driver’s licenses. How much difference is there in driving their cars down the road? I am not talking about speed; I am talking about keeping the car in the proper lane, not running over the kids waiting at the school bus stop, and not wrapping their vehicle around the telephone pole. The differences will be subtle.

Now say that of these 130 drivers in your neighborhood, 20 have brand new 2022 models that almost do the driving for the driver. 30 others have a 2020 or 2021 model that is easy to drive, but unlike the 2022 models above that parallel park for the driver, the driver must do more work on those one and two year old cars. The rest of the drivers have older model cars, and the bottom 30-50 have cars with issues that impair the drivers’ abilities to keep the car on the road as perfectly as those elite 20. Maybe some of the cars have faulty brakes. Others have leaking oil. Some have bald tires, and the steering on some is a bit loose, and the car “floats” a little.

The best driver of the 130 neighbors will have issues dirving the faulty cars. The least competent of the 130 drivers will still parallel park a new 2022 car easily and effortlessly.

College team fans can sometimes be the number one hindrance in a coach’s ability to recruit. Putting Coach Smith on a hot seat and creating a Fire Coach Smith website, accelerates the issue. When Coach Smith is given a private vote of confidence by his school, but the school’s fans and media say his days are numbered, 18 year old kids hear and see this and become hesitant to sign at State. Maybe, it’s just one or two players, but these could be the ones that move the needle in a couple of years. Rival schools quickly let these 4-star and 5-star talents know that State is on the verge of firing Coach Smith, so come to Tech and play for Coach Williams, who just got a major contract extension and could run for Mayor in Techtown and win by a landslide.

Let me use one example about how insane fandom can be. I will use the hometown college team, Vanderbilt. The Commodores have strict academic restrictions on who coaches can recruit. Of the top 1,000 recruits in a season, about 75 have the academic talent to earn admission to the school. Unfortunately, none of these 75 are required to put Vanderbilt on their list of potential colleges. The A+ student with ACT/SAT scores high enough to gain admission to Vanderbilt, or for that matter, Harvard, Yale, Cal Tech, and MIT, frequently uses that intelligence to realize that four years in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, or Columbus, Ohio, will allow him to be a star in the classroom and on the football field. By becoming a star at Alabama or Ohio State, his ticket for life is virtually guaranteed to be a skybox seat with private valet parking.

First year Vanderbilt head football coach Clark Lea faces a near impossible task of trying to recruit enough players in the high three-star range and up to compete in an SEC that is light years tougher than it was 10 years ago. With Oklahoma and Texas headed to the league, the small private school that shares more in common with former SEC member Sewanee and former Big Ten member Chicago than Alabama or Georgia is in an impossible position to succeed. The talent level between Vanderbilt and the next weakest team in the SEC is almost as far apart as the number 13 SEC team is to Alabama and Georgia. Lea has talent that could not win the Conference USA divisions. 20 FCS teams have more talent, and East Tennessee State totally dominated the Commodores in the season opener.

Vanderbilt defeated 1-8 Connecticut, a team that only beat Yale and then just barely, when the Huskies had to use their backup quarterback. The Commodores won the game on a final play field goal by a kicker that had been #2 at Alabama and was not going to see action. That UConn team lost to UMass, a team that was just dominated by Rhode Island.

Lea took over a car that had brake, transmission, steering, and suspension issues along with bald tires and a leaking head gasket. He has to drive on the same street with 13 brand new state of the art smart cars. Yet, there are deluded fans that believe he should be at the head of the motorcade and is to blame for the car not being able to stay in its lane or even start on cold mornings.

The monumental task of trying to build this program into one that can compete for minor bowls once every three years is already suffering from the arrows being publicly shot by a small amount of vocal fans, three of which have sent me emails venting about how Lea cannot coach. Since I do not participate in any of the public sports forums for Vanderbilt athletics, as I basically stopped following the program as a fan over a decade ago, I only see what these fans send me, but I can easily see that when recruits read this scathing criticism on these forums, and both their parents and they do read them, it creates reasonable doubt, and players begin to decommit, which has happened in the last fortnight.

Years ago, I made a public statement on a sports radio show that trying to win SEC football games at Vanderbilt was akin to beating a similarly skilled opponent in chess when he has both queens, and you have nine pawns. These vociferous fans have now robbed Lea of a bishop. Lea will be the coach at Vanderbilt for at least three more years after this season, and a minority of Vanderbilt fans may see their opinions become fact somewhat because the three recruits per year they turn away makes the difference in a couple of wins per year.

If you are a fan of a fledgling football program like Arizona, Kansas, or Vanderbilt, anything you can legally do to enhance your school’s recruiting efforts should be the obvious way to support your school other than with your checkbook. Successful recruiting is the only way a school can overcome bad times and improve to mediocre to decent to above average to really good. In the SEC of the mid 2020’s, Vanderbilt may face a situation similar to what Sewanee and Chicago faced in the late 1930’s. The task for Coach Lea is already close to impossible; if you root for the Commodores, don’t remove the “close.”

PiRate Ratings College Football–November 2-6, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	4.5	5.5	6.1
Akron	Ball St.	-18.7	-19.8	-18.9
Ohio U	Miami (O)	-11.4	-8.8	-8.3
Kent St.	Northern Illinois	2.5	5.4	4.2
Western Michigan	Central Michigan	1.3	3.0	2.2
Louisiana	Georgia St.	18.0	17.2	18.2
Boston College	Virginia Tech	-0.6	0.3	0.3
Stanford	Utah	-8.0	-7.6	-8.4
Air Force (n)	Army	0.6	1.0	1.8
Duke	Pittsburgh	-20.6	-20.5	-22.0
Florida St.	North Caroina St.	-3.7	-3.1	-3.4
Miami (Fla.)	Georgia Tech	13.8	12.9	14.0
Rutgers	Wisconsin	-13.9	-12.0	-14.7
Louisville	Clemson	-6.3	-6.4	-6.1
UAB	Louisiana Tech	15.3	15.3	17.0
Northwestern	Iowa	-15.3	-14.6	-16.7
South Florida	Houston	-13.0	-12.6	-13.3
Michigan	Indiana	14.4	15.6	15.3
North Carolina	Wake Forest	-0.2	0.1	0.7
Georgia Southern	Coastal Carolina	-21.6	-19.6	-21.7
Central Florida	Tulane	11.4	11.4	12.4
Minnesota	Illinois	17.4	17.9	18.7
Cincinnati	Tulsa	28.0	27.6	29.9
Kansas	Kansas St.	-26.6	-28.5	-30.7
South Carolina	Florida	-15.1	-16.4	-16.5
East Carolina	Temple	24.3	22.7	25.3
Ole Miss	Liberty	16.7	15.9	16.2
TCU	Baylor	-1.8	-2.7	-2.2
Maryland	Penn St.	-8.4	-10.4	-12.6
New Mexico St.	Utah St.	-17.3	-17.5	-19.0
Colorado	Oregon St.	-7.2	-7.7	-8.2
Arizona St.	USC	3.3	4.2	3.5
Southern Miss.	North Texas	-2.3	-1.8	-2.4
Georgia	Missouri	37.7	38.1	40.2
Arkansas St.	Appalachian St.	-17.6	-17.0	-19.8
Nebraska	Ohio St.	-18.1	-17.7	-18.9
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	6.5	6.0	5.8
Memphis	SMU	-8.2	-8.1	-8.0
Notre Dame	Navy	27.3	28.3	28.4
Troy	South Alabama	2.4	2.5	3.4
Charlotte	Rice	-1.3	-0.1	0.5
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	1.4	0.2	0.1
Kentucky	Tennessee	4.3	6.0	4.8
Texas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	4.9	3.0	4.4
Iowa St.	Texas	6.5	6.7	7.0
Purdue	Michigan St.	-0.5	-0.8	1.0
Texas A&M	Auburn	3.1	4.3	3.1
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	3.1	4.5	3.9
Washington	Oregon	-4.8	-4.8	-6.2
Arizona	California	-7.6	-11.4	-10.6
Wyoming	Colorado St.	-1.4	-1.0	-0.9
UTEP	UTSA	-14.4	-13.8	-15.2
Florida Atlantic	Marshall	0.5	1.7	0.3
Fresno St.	Boise St.	1.9	3.2	3.3
New Mexico	UNLV	1.4	2.2	0.4
Florida Int’l.	Old Domimion	1.7	1.3	1.6
Alabama	LSU	24.9	23.4	24.9
Nevada	San Jose St.	10.4	11.6	12.6
Hawaii	San Diego St.	-6.6	-6.6	-6.7

FBS vs. FCS Games
FBS	FCS	PiRate
BYU	Idaho St.	35.0
Massachusetts	Rhode Island	4.1

BYES

Bowling Green

Buffalo

Connecticut

Oklahoma

Syracuse

Texas Tech

UCLA

Vanderbilt

Virginia

Washington St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	135.2
2	Alabama	131.9
3	Ohio St.	130.0
4	Oklahoma	122.1
5	Cincinnati	119.7
6	Iowa St.	118.9
7	Texas A&M	118.9
8	Auburn	118.4
9	Florida	116.4
10	Ole Miss	116.2
11	Penn St.	115.3
12	Oklahoma St.	115.2
13	Texas	115.1
14	Notre Dame	115.0
15	Utah	114.9
16	Michigan	114.4
17	Wisconsin	113.8
18	Iowa	113.8
19	Clemson	113.4
20	Arkansas	113.3
21	Oregon	112.9
22	Baylor	112.8
23	West Virginia	112.7
24	Wake Forest	111.9
25	NC State	111.4
26	Kentucky	111.1
27	Michigan St.	110.8
28	L S U	110.5
29	Minnesota	110.5
30	Miami (Fla.)	110.3
31	Mississippi St.	110.2
32	North Carolina	110.1
33	Arizona St.	110.0
34	Pittsburgh	109.9
35	Coastal Carolina	109.7
36	U S C	109.4
37	Kansas St.	109.3
38	Louisiana	109.2
39	Tennessee	109.1
40	BYU	109.0
41	Oregon St.	108.8
42	Nebraska	108.8
43	U C L A	108.5
44	T C U	108.5
45	Purdue	107.7
46	Washington	107.4
47	Virginia	105.6
48	Florida St.	105.0
49	Washington St.	104.6
50	Appalachian St.	104.5
51	Houston	104.4
52	Louisville	104.1
53	SMU	104.1
54	California	103.9
55	Stanford	103.9
56	Boise St.	103.8
57	Fresno St.	103.6
58	Nevada	103.1
59	Virginia Tech	103.0
60	Liberty	102.9
61	UCF	102.3
62	Indiana	102.3
63	Maryland	101.8
64	U T S A	101.8
65	Texas Tech	101.5
66	Syracuse	101.5
67	San Diego St.	101.4
68	Air Force	101.4
69	Army	100.3
70	Boston College	100.0
71	Georgia Tech	99.8
72	Missouri	99.5
73	East Carolina	98.8
74	Colorado	98.1
75	Miami (Ohio)	98.0
76	Toledo	97.7
77	South Carolina	97.4
78	Rutgers	97.3
79	U A B	96.5
80	Ball St.	96.5
81	Marshall	96.2
82	Northwestern	95.7
83	Illinois	95.5
84	Eastern Michigan	94.8
85	Western Michigan	94.7
86	Colorado St.	94.6
87	Central Michigan	94.5
88	Tulsa	94.2
89	San Jose St.	94.0
90	Florida Atlantic	94.0
91	Georgia St.	93.8
92	Tulane	93.6
93	Memphis	93.5
94	Utah St.	92.7
95	Troy	92.5
96	Western Kentucky	92.1
97	Buffalo	91.9
98	South Alabama	91.8
99	Kent St.	91.5
100	Arizona	91.0
101	Hawaii	90.8
102	Middle Tennessee	90.7
103	Wyoming	90.5
104	Navy	90.0
105	Northern Illinois	90.0
106	USF	88.9
107	Ohio	86.5
108	Georgia Southern	86.2
109	Duke	85.9
110	U T E P	84.8
111	Arkansas St.	83.9
112	U N L V	83.7
113	Louisiana Tech	83.2
114	New Mexico	82.6
115	Texas St.	81.5
116	Rice	81.5
117	North Texas	80.6
118	Vanderbilt	80.1
119	UL-Monroe	80.0
120	Kansas	79.2
121	Charlotte	78.7
122	Temple	77.7
123	Old Dominion	76.5
124	Bowling Green	76.1
125	Southern Miss.	76.0
126	Florida Int’l.	75.6
127	Akron	74.8
128	New Mexico St.	72.2
129	Connecticut	68.5
130	UMass	67.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.4	118.8	121.0	119.7
Houston	104.5	103.6	105.0	104.4
SMU	103.8	104.0	104.5	104.1
UCF	102.1	101.0	104.0	102.3
East Carolina	98.5	98.1	99.8	98.8
Tulsa	94.4	94.2	94.0	94.2
Tulane	93.7	92.5	94.5	93.6
Memphis	93.1	93.4	94.0	93.5
Navy	89.9	89.7	90.5	90.0
USF	89.0	88.5	89.2	88.9
Temple	77.3	78.4	77.5	77.7
AAC Averages	96.9	96.6	97.6	97.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	113.1	113.0	114.1	113.4
Wake Forest	111.8	111.5	112.3	111.9
NC State	111.4	111.1	111.7	111.4
Florida St.	104.7	105.0	105.3	105.0
Louisville	103.8	103.6	105.0	104.1
Syracuse	101.3	101.6	101.6	101.5
Boston College	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	110.6	109.8	110.7	110.3
North Carolina	109.6	109.6	111.0	110.1
Pittsburgh	109.6	110.2	110.0	109.9
Virginia	105.3	106.2	105.2	105.6
Virginia Tech	103.6	102.7	102.7	103.0
Georgia Tech	99.8	99.9	99.7	99.8
Duke	86.0	86.7	85.0	85.9
ACC Averages	105.0	105.1	105.3	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	123.0	121.3	122.1	122.1
Iowa St.	119.6	118.1	118.9	118.9
Oklahoma St.	115.5	115.2	114.9	115.2
Texas	116.1	114.4	114.9	115.1
Baylor	113.2	112.7	112.4	112.8
West Virginia	114.0	112.4	111.9	112.7
Kansas St.	109.6	109.3	108.9	109.3
T C U	109.4	108.0	108.2	108.5
Texas Tech	101.9	101.9	100.8	101.5
Kansas	81.5	79.3	76.8	79.2
Big 12 Averages	110.4	109.3	109.0	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	129.5	129.4	131.0	130.0
Penn St.	114.2	114.9	116.7	115.3
Michigan	113.8	114.6	114.8	114.4
Michigan St.	110.6	110.8	111.0	110.8
Indiana	102.3	102.0	102.5	102.3
Maryland	102.8	101.5	101.1	101.8
Rutgers	96.4	98.2	97.1	97.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	113.3	113.2	114.8	113.8
Iowa	113.5	113.1	114.7	113.8
Minnesota	109.6	110.4	111.5	110.5
Nebraska	108.5	108.7	109.1	108.8
Purdue	107.1	107.0	109.0	107.7
Northwestern	95.7	96.0	95.5	95.7
Illinois	95.2	95.5	95.8	95.5
Big Ten Averages	108.0	108.3	108.9	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	95.9	96.0	96.7	96.2
Florida Atlantic	93.4	94.6	94.0	94.0
Western Kentucky	90.9	92.5	92.8	92.1
Middle Tennessee	90.3	90.5	91.4	90.7
Charlotte	77.9	78.9	79.4	78.7
Old Dominion	76.0	76.8	76.8	76.5
Florida Int’l.	75.2	75.6	75.9	75.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	101.4	102.1	101.9	101.8
U A B	96.4	96.6	96.6	96.5
U T E P	84.5	85.7	84.1	84.8
Louisiana Tech	83.6	83.8	82.1	83.2
Rice	81.6	81.5	81.4	81.5
North Texas	80.6	80.7	80.6	80.6
Southern Miss.	75.8	76.4	75.7	76.0
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.5	86.4	86.3
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	114.2	114.9	115.9	115.0
BYU	109.1	108.7	109.3	109.0
Liberty	102.6	103.1	103.1	102.9
Army	100.4	100.3	100.1	100.3
New Mexico St.	72.5	73.2	71.0	72.2
Connecticut	69.1	69.6	66.9	68.5
UMass	68.9	68.3	66.2	67.8
Indep. Averages	91.0	91.2	90.4	90.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	99.5	97.8	96.8	98.0
Buffalo	92.6	91.7	91.5	91.9
Kent St.	91.2	92.5	90.9	91.5
Ohio	86.1	87.0	86.5	86.5
Bowling Green	76.6	76.8	74.8	76.1
Akron	76.2	74.7	73.7	74.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	98.2	97.8	97.1	97.7
Ball St.	97.3	97.0	95.1	96.5
Eastern Michigan	96.2	94.8	93.5	94.8
Western Michigan	94.8	95.2	93.9	94.7
Central Michigan	95.6	94.2	93.7	94.5
Northern Illinois	91.1	89.7	89.2	90.0
MAC Averages	91.3	90.8	89.7	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.5	103.5	104.3	103.8
Air Force	101.1	101.3	101.9	101.4
Colorado St.	94.5	94.5	94.7	94.6
Utah St.	92.3	93.1	92.6	92.7
Wyoming	90.1	90.5	90.8	90.5
New Mexico	83.0	83.1	81.6	82.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	102.5	103.8	104.7	103.6
Nevada	102.4	103.7	103.1	103.1
San Diego St.	101.7	101.4	101.2	101.4
San Jose St.	94.5	94.5	93.1	94.0
Hawaii	91.1	90.8	90.5	90.8
U N L V	84.1	83.4	83.8	83.7
MWC Averages	95.1	95.3	95.2	95.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.9	113.0	113.8	112.9
Oregon St.	108.6	108.9	109.0	108.8
Washington	106.6	107.8	107.8	107.4
Washington St.	104.1	105.1	104.6	104.6
California	101.9	105.3	104.7	103.9
Stanford	103.7	104.4	103.6	103.9
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	114.8	115.0	115.0	114.9
Arizona St.	109.6	110.2	110.3	110.0
U S C	109.2	109.0	109.8	109.4
U C L A	108.3	108.6	108.7	108.5
Colorado	98.4	98.2	97.7	98.1
Arizona	91.2	90.9	91.0	91.0
Pac-12 Averages	105.7	106.4	106.3	106.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	134.6	135.0	136.0	135.2
Florida	115.9	117.0	116.4	116.4
Kentucky	110.4	111.8	111.1	111.1
Tennessee	109.1	108.8	109.3	109.1
Missouri	99.8	99.9	98.8	99.5
South Carolina	97.9	97.5	96.9	97.4
Vanderbilt	80.6	80.1	79.6	80.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.9	131.2	132.7	131.9
Texas A&M	118.5	119.2	118.9	118.9
Auburn	118.4	117.9	118.9	118.4
Ole Miss	116.2	116.0	116.3	116.2
Arkansas	113.5	113.4	113.0	113.3
L S U	110.0	110.8	110.8	110.5
Mississippi St.	110.0	110.4	110.2	110.2
SEC Averages	111.9	112.1	112.1	112.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	110.3	108.6	110.1	109.7
Appalachian St.	104.1	103.8	105.6	104.5
Georgia St.	94.2	93.5	93.8	93.8
Troy	92.4	92.5	92.7	92.5
Georgia Southern	86.3	86.6	85.9	86.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	109.7	108.3	109.6	109.2
South Alabama	92.0	92.0	91.3	91.8
Arkansas St.	84.1	84.3	83.3	83.9
Texas St.	82.7	80.8	81.1	81.5
UL-Monroe	80.3	80.3	79.2	80.0
Sun Averages	93.6	93.1	93.3	93.3

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.0
2	Big 12	109.5
3	Big Ten	108.4
4	Pac-12	106.1
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American Athletic	97.0
7	Mountain West	95.2
8	Sun Belt	93.3
9	Independents	90.8
10	Mid-American	90.6
11	Conference USA	86.3

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	Western Kentucky	Eastern Michigan
Cure	Memphis	Georgia St.
Boca	Coastal Carolina	Florida Atlantic
New Mexico	Air Force	UTEP
Independence	BYU	Marshall
Lending Tree	Western Michigan	UL-Monroe
L. A.	San Diego St.	UCLA
New Orleans	UTSA	Louisiana
Myrtle Beach	Liberty	Central Michigan
Famous Idaho Potato	Miami (O)	Boise St.
Frisco	Nevada	UAB
Armed Forces	Army	Washington St.
Gasparilla	SMU	California
Hawaii	Houston	Fresno St.
Camellia	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
Quick Lane	Kent St.	Rutgers
Military	Miami (Fla.)	East Carolina
Birmingham	Middle Tennesee	Ball St.
First Responder	Wyoming	San Jose St.
Liberty	Texas	Auburn
Holiday	Virginia Tech	Arizona St.
Guaranteed Rate	Purdue	West Virginia
Fenway	Virginia	Central Florida
Pinstripe	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Cheez-It	Pittsburgh	Iowa St.
Alamo	Baylor	Washington
Duke’s Mayo	North Carolina St.	Mississippi St.
Music City	Iowa	Tennessee
Las Vegas	Penn St.	Oregon St.
Tax Slayer Gator	Clemson	Arkansas
Tony The Tiger Sun	Louisville	USC
Arizona	Toledo	Utah St.
Citrus	Michigan	Ole Miss
Outback	Minnesota	Florida
Texas	Kansas St.	Texas A&M
Peach	Wake Forest	Kentucky
Fiesta	Notre Dame	Utah
Rose	Oregon	Michigan St.
Sugar	Alabama	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
Orange	Georgia	Cincinnati
Championship	Georgia	Oklahoma

The First FBS Playoff Ratings Debut Tuesday

The NCAA FBS Playoff Committee releases its first playoff rankings Tuesday night. We expect the first release will have Georgia at number one, and then in either Oklahoma and Alabama at #2 and #3 or vice versa. The fourth spot is the mystery. Will it be Cincinnati? What about the Ohio State/Oregon situation, where the Ducks beat the Buckeyes at the Giant Horseshoe? Then, how will they count Michigan State and Wake Forest, both undefeated Power 5 teams?

If you look at our playoff predictions, you will see Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio St., and Cincinnati for now. Our projections are forward looking, so for now, we call for Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and the Playoff Committee unable to find a loophole to place a 2-loss team in the Playoffs with undefeated teams left out. As for Michigan State, they still have to beat Penn State, Ohio State, and either Wisconsin or Minnesota in the Big Ten Championship Game. Wake Forest has to win at Clemson and in the ACC Championship Game. They even face a trap game this week at North Carolina.

For now, we are calling for Cincinnati to win the AAC Championship Game and finish 13-0, but there are two games they will have to win where they could face trouble. Houston may split two games with the Bearcats, and at 12-1, Cinti won’t make the field.

If Ohio State and Oregon both win out, and are both 12-1, both could make the field, if Cincinnati loses. The big wildcard is what happens if Alabama wins out and knocks off Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama and Georgia would both make the playoffs, and Oklahoma would be number three, assuming they don’t lose to Baylor or Oklahoma State.

In the past, it comes down to six teams by the time the official four are named. There are four more weeks of regular season football to be played, and probably three of the contenders are going to play themselves out of contention before the Conference Championship Games are played.

If you ask us today who the four best teams in college football are, regardless of their won-loss record, we might go with Georgia at number one, Alabama at number two, Oklahoma at number three, and Oregon at number four. And, if the Committee picks these four teams Tuesday night, we will endorse their picks.

PiRate Ratings College Football For The Playoffs and Bowls

Spreads for Bowls and Playoff Semifinals

Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Dec. 21	Myrtle Beach
Appalachian St.	North Texas	28.0	27.3	28.7
Dec. 22	Idaho Potato
Tulane	Nevada	9.1	8.2	8.2
Dec 22	Boca Raton
Central Florida	BYU	-3.3	-3.2	-3.2
Dec 23	New Orleans
Louisiana Tech	Georgia Southern	-8.6	-8.8	-8.8
Dec 23	Montgomery
Memphis	Florida Atlantic	18.5	16.4	16.4
Dec 24	New Mexico
Houston	Hawaii	10.6	8.9	10.2
Dec 25	Camellia
Marshall	Buffalo	-6.3	-7.0	-7.5
Dec 26	Gasparilla
South Carolina	UAB	3.6	1.4	3.2
Dec 26	Cure
Coastal Carolina	Liberty	7.0	4.6	6.9
Dec 26	First Responder
UTSA	Louisiana	-20.5	-19.7	-19.9
Dec 26	LendingTree
Western Ky.	Georgia St.	-0.6	-0.4	-1.5
Dec 29	Cheez-It
Miami (Fla.)	Oklahoma St.	-2.7	0.5	-1.3
Dec 29	Alamo
Texas	Colorado	17.0	15.0	18.1
Dec 30	Duke’s Mayo
Wake Forest	Wisconsin	-13.7	-11.2	-13.9
Dec 30	Music City
Iowa	Missouri	15.6	15.7	16.7
Dec 30	Cotton
Oklahoma	Florida	-1.2	-1.2	-1.6
Dec 31	Armed Forces
Tulsa	Mississippi St.	-1.0	-1.6	-2.7
Dec 31	Liberty
Army (replaces Tenn.)	West Va.	-10.0	-8.2	-10.0
Dec 31	Arizona
Ball St.	San Jose St.	-1.6	-3.3	-1.9
Dec 31	Texas
TCU	Arkansas	8.3	6.6	8.6
Jan 1	Peach
Georgia	Cincinnati	7.8	7.7	8.8
Jan 1	Citrus
Auburn	Northwestern	3.3	2.4	0.7
Jan 1	Rose *
Alabama	Notre Dame	17.0	17.9	19.0
Jan 1	Sugar
Clemson	Ohio St.	0.0	1.7	0.2
Jan 2	Gator
N.C. State	Kentucky	-7.7	-7.0	-8.3
Jan 2	Outback
Ole Miss	Indiana	-8.0	-9.4	-10.3
Jan 2	Fiesta
Oregon	Iowa St.	-3.4	-4.2	-4.1
Jan 2	Orange
Texas A&M	North Carolina	2.1	2.1	2.5

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Conference
1	Alabama	139.5	140.2	141.5	140.4	SEC-W
2	Clemson	131.1	131.9	133.3	132.1	ACC
3	Ohio St.	131.1	130.2	133.2	131.5	BTen-E
4	Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	SEC-E
5	Florida	123.1	122.8	124.0	123.3	SEC-E
6	Notre Dame	122.5	122.3	122.5	122.4	ACC
7	Texas A&M	121.9	122.0	122.8	122.2	SEC-W
8	Oklahoma	121.9	121.5	122.3	121.9	B12
9	Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	BTen-W
10	Iowa St.	120.2	119.4	120.4	120.0	B12
11	N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	ACC
12	Wisconsin	118.9	117.2	120.0	118.7	BTen-W
13	Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	BTen-E
14	Cincinnati	118.1	117.4	118.0	117.8	AAC
15	Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	B12
16	U S C	117.3	114.7	116.3	116.1	P12-S
17	Oregon	116.8	115.2	116.3	116.1	P12-N
18	Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	SEC-W
19	BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	Ind.
20	L S U	114.2	113.4	115.1	114.2	SEC-W
21	Penn St.	114.3	113.1	115.1	114.2	BTen-E
22	Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	B12
23	Northwestern	112.2	112.3	114.9	113.2	BTen-W
24	Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	ACC
25	UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	AAC
26	T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	B12
27	Arizona St.	110.2	109.7	110.0	109.9	P12-S
28	Utah	109.3	109.4	110.2	109.6	P12-S
29	Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	SEC-E
30	Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	P12-N
31	Ole Miss	109.1	108.1	109.3	108.8	SEC-W
32	Minnesota	107.5	108.0	109.2	108.2	BTen-W
33	Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	SUN-E
34	U C L A	108.0	106.9	107.0	107.3	P12-S
35	Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	ACC
36	Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	ACC
37	Tennessee	106.0	105.3	105.9	105.7	SEC-E
38	Miss. St.	105.6	105.0	106.2	105.6	SEC-W
39	Nebraska	105.2	104.7	106.5	105.5	BTen-W
40	Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	BTen-E
41	Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	SUN-W
42	Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	ACC
43	California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	P12-N
44	Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	ACC
45	Buffalo	104.3	105.2	104.9	104.8	MAC-E
46	W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	B12
47	Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	ACC
48	Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	AAC
49	Missouri	104.1	103.7	104.7	104.2	SEC-E
50	Boise St.	104.2	104.2	103.8	104.1	MWC-M
51	Stanford	104.6	103.1	104.4	104.0	P12-N
52	Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	ACC
53	Tulsa	104.6	103.4	103.5	103.8	AAC
54	Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	BTen-W
55	Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	AAC
56	Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	SUN-E
57	Oregon St.	103.0	102.6	102.0	102.5	P12-N
58	Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	SEC-W
59	Washington St.	102.6	101.2	102.9	102.2	P12-N
60	Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	B12
61	NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	ACC
62	Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	AAC
63	Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	Ind.
64	Air Force	100.9	101.6	100.7	101.1	MWC-M
65	Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	P12-S
66	San Jose St.	99.9	101.6	100.5	100.7	MWC-W
67	Illinois	100.4	99.7	101.1	100.4	BTen-W
68	Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	B12
69	Rutgers	100.4	99.4	99.8	99.9	BTen-E
70	SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	AAC
71	S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	SEC-E
72	Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	BTen-E
73	San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	MWC-W
74	Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	B12
75	Ball St.	98.2	98.3	98.6	98.4	MAC-W
76	Marshall	98.0	98.2	97.4	97.8	CUSA-E
77	Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	ACC
78	U A B	96.9	97.4	96.5	96.9	CUSA-W
79	Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	MWC-M
80	Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	MWC-W
81	Army	94.7	96.1	94.9	95.3	Ind.
82	Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	ACC
83	E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	AAC
84	Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	BTen-E
85	Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	MAC-E
86	Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	P12-S
87	Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	SUN-E
88	Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	MWC-W
89	Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	MWC-W
90	Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	MAC-W
91	Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	MAC-W
92	Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	SUN-E
93	Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	MAC-W
94	Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	SUN-E
95	Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	MAC-E
96	Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	AAC
97	W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	CUSA-E
98	Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	MAC-E
99	Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	ACC
100	Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	ACC
101	Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	MWC-M
102	Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	SEC-E
103	Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	SUN-W
104	Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	AAC
105	Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	CUSA-W
106	USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	AAC
107	Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	CUSA-E
108	New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	MWC-M
109	Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	CUSA-E
110	U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	CUSA-W
111	Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	MAC-W
112	Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	MWC-M
113	La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	CUSA-W
114	Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	CUSA-E
115	Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	CUSA-E
116	Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	CUSA-W
117	S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	SUN-W
118	N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	MAC-W
119	Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	SUN-W
120	U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	MWC-W
121	Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	B12
122	North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	CUSA-W
123	U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	CUSA-W
124	Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	MAC-E
125	UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	SUN-W
126	Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	MAC-E
127	Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	Ind.

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
Cincinnati	118.1	117.4	118.0	117.8	6-0	9-0
UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	5-3	6-3
Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	3-5	6-5
Tulsa	104.6	103.4	103.5	103.8	6-0	6-2
Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	5-3	7-3
Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	3-3	3-4
SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	4-3	7-3
E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	3-4	3-6
Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	3-4	3-7
Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	1-6	1-6
USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	0-7	1-8
AAC Avg.	100.7	100.0	99.7	100.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	131.1	131.9	133.3	132.1	8-1	10-1
Notre Dame	122.5	122.3	122.5	122.4	9-0	10-1
N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	7-3	8-3
Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	7-2	8-2
Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	3-7	4-7
Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	5-5	6-5
Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	3-4	4-4
Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	4-5	5-5
Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	5-5	5-6
Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	5-5	6-5
NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	7-3	8-3
Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	2-6	3-6
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	3-6	3-7
Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	1-9	1-10
Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	1-9	2-9
ACC Avg.	106.0	106.3	106.2	106.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.9	121.5	122.3	121.9	6-2	8-2
Iowa St.	120.2	119.4	120.4	120.0	8-1	8-3
Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	5-3	6-3
Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	6-3	7-3
T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	5-4	6-4
W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	4-4	5-4
Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	2-7	2-7
Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	4-5	4-6
Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	3-6	4-6
Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	0-8	0-9
Big 12 Avg.	106.9	106.1	106.8	106.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	131.1	130.2	133.2	131.5	5-0	6-0
Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	6-1	6-1
Penn St.	114.3	113.1	115.1	114.2	4-5	4-5
Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	2-4	2-4
Rutgers	100.4	99.4	99.8	99.9	3-6	3-6
Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	2-5	2-5
Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	2-3	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	6-2	6-2
Wisconsin	118.9	117.2	120.0	118.7	3-3	3-3
Northwestern	112.2	112.3	114.9	113.2	6-1	6-2
Minnesota	107.5	108.0	109.2	108.2	3-4	3-4
Nebraska	105.2	104.7	106.5	105.5	3-5	3-5
Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	2-4	2-4
Illinois	100.4	99.7	101.1	100.4	2-6	2-6
Big Ten Avg.	109.3	108.8	110.4	109.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	98.0	98.2	97.4	97.8	4-1	7-2
W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	4-3	5-6
Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	4-2	5-3
Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	0-3	0-5
Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	2-2	2-4
Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	2-4	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
U A B	96.9	97.4	96.5	96.9	3-1	6-3
Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	2-3	2-3
U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	5-2	7-4
La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	4-2	5-4
Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	2-4	3-7
North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	3-4	4-5
U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	0-4	3-5
CUSA Avg.	85.1	85.4	84.8	85.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	x	10-1
Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	x	9-1
Army	94.7	96.1	94.9	95.3	x	9-2
Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	x	0-4
Ind. Avg.	92.8	95.3	92.6	93.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Buffalo	104.3	105.2	104.9	104.8	5-0	5-1
Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	2-1	2-1
Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	2-1	2-1
Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	3-1	3-1
Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	1-5	1-5
Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	0-5	0-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Ball St.	98.2	98.3	98.6	98.4	5-1	6-1
Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	4-2	4-2
Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	4-2	4-2
Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	3-3	3-3
Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	2-4	2-4
N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	0-6	0-6
MAC Avg.	87.8	88.5	87.6	88.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Boise St.	104.2	104.2	103.8	104.1	5-0	5-2
Air Force	100.9	101.6	100.7	101.1	2-2	3-3
Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	2-4	2-4
Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	1-3	1-3
New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	2-5	2-5
Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	1-5	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
San Jose St.	99.9	101.6	100.5	100.7	6-0	7-0
San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	4-2	4-4
Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	6-2	6-2
Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	3-3	3-3
Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	4-4	4-4
U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	0-6	0-6
MWC Avg.	93.3	94.0	93.1	93.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Oregon	116.8	115.2	116.3	116.1	3-2	4-2
Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	3-1	3-1
California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	1-3	1-3
Stanford	104.6	103.1	104.4	104.0	4-2	4-2
Oregon St.	103.0	102.6	102.0	102.5	2-5	2-5
Washington St.	102.6	101.2	102.9	102.2	1-3	1-3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
U S C	117.3	114.7	116.3	116.1	5-0	5-1
Arizona St.	110.2	109.7	110.0	109.9	2-2	2-2
Utah	109.3	109.4	110.2	109.6	3-2	3-2
U C L A	108.0	106.9	107.0	107.3	3-4	3-4
Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	3-1	4-1
Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	0-5	0-5
P12 Avg.	106.8	105.8	106.4	106.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	7-2	7-2
Florida	123.1	122.8	124.0	123.3	8-2	8-3
Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	4-6	4-6
Tennessee	106.0	105.3	105.9	105.7	3-7	3-7
Missouri	104.1	103.7	104.7	104.2	5-5	5-5
S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	2-8	2-8
Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	0-9	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Alabama	139.5	140.2	141.5	140.4	10-0	11-0
Texas A&M	121.9	122.0	122.8	122.2	8-1	8-1
Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	6-4	6-4
L S U	114.2	113.4	115.1	114.2	5-5	5-5
Ole Miss	109.1	108.1	109.3	108.8	4-5	4-5
Miss. St.	105.6	105.0	106.2	105.6	3-7	3-7
Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	3-7	3-7
SEC Avg.	111.7	111.2	112.1	111.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	8-0	11-0
Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	6-2	8-3
Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	4-4	7-5
Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	4-4	5-4
Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	3-6	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	7-1	9-1
Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	2-6	4-7
S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	3-5	4-7
Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	2-6	2-10
UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	0-7	0-10
Sun Avg.	91.1	91.4	90.9	91.2

Conference Ratings

#	League	Avg
1	SEC	111.7
2	BTen	109.5
3	B12	106.6
4	P12	106.4
5	ACC	106.2
6	AAC	100.1
7	Ind.	93.6
8	MWC	93.5
9	Sun	91.2
10	MAC	88.0
11	CUSA	85.1

2017 Pac-12 Preview

The Pac-12 has not had a member win the National Championship in quite some time. Washington and Oregon made trips to the Playoffs in recent years, but they came up short. USC won multiple national titles earlier in this century, and Washington shared one with Miami back in 1991, but this once toughest conference has come up short ever since Vince Young scored the winning touchdown for Texas against USC in 2005.

The Trojans might have won an additional national title in this century had the four team playoffs been in existence in 2002. While unbeated Ohio State and unbeaten Miami played a memorable championship game, it was USC that was clearly the best team in the nation at the end of the year. The Trojans went 11-2, and 12 of the 13 teams on their schedule went to bowls. The Tojans split the title with LSU in 2003 and won the title outright in 2004. They went 38-2 in a three-year period losing only to Young and Texas and Aaron Rodgers and Cal. Since that time, 11 of the last 12 national champions have come from South of the Mason-Dixon Line. Can this be the year the Pac-12 breaks through with another national champion?

USC and Washington both appear to be contenders for playoff bid during the preseason. In today’s college football world, the quarterback is just as vital as the position in the NFL. The Trojans and Huskies both have top 5 signal callers directing their attacks. Sam Darnold took over a 1-3 Trojan team and guided USC to nine consecutive victories. Washington’s Jake Browning led the Huskies to the Playoff semi-finals, before UW bowed out against Alabama.

There are three other teams with the type of quality QB that can lead a school to a conference championship. Washington State’s Luke Falk is now a senior, and when QB’s under Mike Leach’s tutelage reach their fourth year in the program, they tend to lead the conference and the nation in total offense. Look for WSU to continue to advance forward from the surprise 2016 season.

Josh Rosen leads the UCLA offense, but like so many past Bruin quarterbacks, injuries have sort of derailed his career. A healthy Rosen is capable of leading the Bruins to a record reversal or better in Westwood. A 4- 8 disappointment in 2016, led Coach Jim Mora, Jr. to overhaul his assistant coaching corps.

Oregon is another team that disappointed in 2016. It cost Mark Helfrich his job. Enter new coach Willie Taggart, who turned around programs at Western Kentucky and South Florida. At his two prior stops, Taggart’s first editions have taken their lumps learning to play his style of ball, but he did not have a quarterback with the talent of Justin Herbert at either past school. Look for the Ducks to turn things around quickly and become bowl-eligible again this season. Give Taggart three years, and Oregon will be challenging for the Pac-12 North title again.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media voted in the preseason.

 

Pac-12 North Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Washington	49	309	22
2	Stanford	1	247	0
3	Washington St.	1	206	0
4	Oregon	1	163	1
5	Oregon St.	0	101	0
6	California	0	64	0
Pac-12 South Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	USC	49	309	28
2	Utah	1	220	1
3	UCLA	1	209	0
4	Colorado	1	182	0
5	Arizona St.	0	109	0
6	Arizona	0	61	0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings agree on the division leaders, but our ratings show a different order to start the season. Bear in mind that our ratings factor depth and other factors that could help a team improve (or decline) in the ratings more than another team with the same results, based on this factor. USC is one of those teams that has a chance to improve more than average, so by late November, the Trojans could be rated higher than Washington, even if both teams go 11-1 and face off in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	129.3	125.1	130.3	128.2
Washington St.	119.4	116.1	118.6	118.0
Stanford	118.5	116.2	117.1	117.3
Oregon	110.6	107.2	109.6	109.1
Oregon St.	102.5	101.7	101.1	101.8
California	97.8	95.3	95.7	96.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	120.4	120.1	120.8	120.4
Colorado	114.1	111.5	111.8	112.4
U C L A	108.6	107.7	108.0	108.1
Utah	105.4	108.1	105.6	106.4
Arizona St.	103.7	103.7	102.5	103.3
Arizona	98.3	97.1	95.9	97.1
Pac-12 Averages	110.7	109.1	109.8	109.9

And, here are our not-so-scientific predictions for won-loss and bowl projections.

Pac-12 Conference Projected Standings
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Washington	9-0	12-1	Fiesta
Washington St.	7-2	10-2	Alamo
Stanford	6-3	9-3	Holiday
Oregon	5-4	8-4	Foster Farms
Oregon St.	2-7	4-8
California	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
USC	7-2	11-2	PLAYOFFS
Utah	5-4	8-4	Sun
UCLA	5-4	7-5	Las Vegas
Colorado	4-5	7-5	Cactus
Arizona St.	1-8	3-9
Arizona	1-8	3-9
USC to win Pac-12 Championship Game

Coming Tomorrow: The Atlantic Coast Conference–Does Florida State deserve its lofty preseason rating? How much will Clemson suffer without Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, and Wayne Gallman? Can Louisville challenge the two behemoths? Is there a dark horse team lurking, maybe North Carolina State? In the Coastal, can any team finish better than 6-2 in league play, or will there be a major logjam with four or five teams contending for the division flag?

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 15-19, 2016

After one of the most contentious elections in over 100 years, the college football world decided to make Tuesday’s vote of the College Football Playoff Committee just as controversial before it can be released.

Truth be told, there only needs to be two playoff bids issued this year. The first one should go to Alabama as the number one seed, and the second one should go to the College All-Star Team as the number two seed. This Crimson Tide team has the look of one of John Wooden’s UCLA basketball teams during the Alcindor-Walton years. Coach Nick Saban’s team has pulled away from the pack now that Clemson, Michigan, and Washington fell Saturday.

There is still a lot to be decided, and there are some interesting scenarios left before four teams can earn golden tickets in December. Let’s take a look at each conference.

American Athletic
Temple and South Florida are tied for first in the East at 5-1 with Central Florida a game back at 4-2. Temple has the inside track to take the divisional crown, as the Owls have a road game against Tulane and a home game with East Carolina left on their schedule and hold the tiebreaker over the both contenders.

Navy leads the West and must lose to both East Carolina and SMU in order for either Houston or Tulsa to win the division. Memphis and Tulsa have such slim chances of winning the division in a multiple tie that it is not worth mentioning all the possibilities that must happen to make it real.

Atlantic Coast
Clemson’s loss to Pittsburgh is not enough to push Louisville over the top in the Atlantic Division. The Cardinals need for Wake Forest to upset the Tigers this weekend, and that is not likely to happen. Louisville could profit off a Clemson loss in the ACC Championship Game. If the Cardinals win out and CU loses again, UL could move into the playoffs without appearing in a championship game.

The Coastal Division did not change even though the two co-leaders were both upset. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are tied at 5-2. If the two stay tied at either 6-2 or 5-3, then the Hokies win the tiebreaker. Pittsburgh and Miami can both get to 5-3, but Virginia Tech wins any and all tiebreakers against any possible 5-3 opponent.

Big 12
Oklahoma leads at 7-0, but Oklahoma State and West Virginia both have just one conference loss and are still alive in the conference championship race. The Sooners close with West Virginia in Morgantown and Oklahoma State in Norman.

The three teams cannot finished tied at 8-1, because with the Sooners playing both one-loss teams, one of the three teams must lose a second conference game. There is a scenario where all three teams could finish tied with two losses, but it is not all that likely. If Oklahoma loses to both contenders to drop to 7-2, and if Oklahoma State loses at TCU this weekend, while West Virginia loses at Iowa State, then OSU will be the Big 12 Champion.

Big Ten
Oh, did this past weekend really throw a monkey wrench into the workings. With Iowa beating Michigan, it opened up the possibility that Penn State could sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game as East Division champ. If the Nittany Lions win out against Rutgers and Michigan State, and if Ohio State beats Michigan, then Coach James Franklin will lead Penn State to Indianapolis on December 3. Whether Ohio State can win out to finish 11-1, miss the conference title game, and still get a bid to the Playoffs is unsure.

In the West, there are even more possible scenarios than in the East. Wisconsin is the only divisionteam that controls its own destiny. If the Badgers beat Purdue and Minnesota , they go to Indy. If UW loses a game, and Nebraska beats Maryland and Iowa, the Cornhuskers take the flag. Then, there is the possibility that if both Wisconsin and Nebraska lose, there are scenarios where Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern could make it to the Championship Game.

Conference USA
The two division races are basically decided after the two division leaders won on Saturday. Western Kentucky has one game left at Marshall on November 26. If the 6-1 Hilltoppers win that game, they are East Champs. If WKU falls in Huntington, then Old Dominion can win the division title by closing with wins over Florida Atlantic and Florida International.

Louisiana Tech clinched the West with their win over UTSA Saturday. The Bulldogs have won seven games in a row after starting the year at 1-3, including pinning the lone conference loss on WKU.

Mid-American
You probably haven’t followed the race in the MAC East much this year, because the other division has gotten all the headlines. However, one of the wackiest ever races in the history of college football could be taking place on this side of the league. There is a chance that a team that began the year losing its first six games, including a home loss to Eastern Illinois, could find itself in the MAC Championship Game! Miami of Ohio was 0-6 after losing big at Akron in early October. Since then, the Redhawks have reeled off five consecutive wins and will become bowl eligible if they beat Ball State a week from Tuesday.

Ohio has the inside advantage to winning the East Division, but should the Bobcats end the year by losing at Central Michigan (who needs to win to become bowl eligible) and at home to Akron (who will need to win to become bowl eligible), then Miami will earn the right to play the behemoth in the other division.

That behemoth is Western Michigan, the number 14 team in this week’s AP Poll and current leader of the pack among the Group of 5 leagues for the Cotton Bowl bid. Before we annoint the Broncos into the Dallas classic, they must beat Toledo on Black Friday and then win the MAC Championship Game. If Toledo wins out over Ball State and WMU, then the Rockets will play in the conference title game.

Mountain West
The Mountain Division race became a bit cloudier after Wyoming lost at UNLV on Saturday. There is now a three-way tie with the Cowboys, New Mexico, and Boise State. At the moment, Boise has the clearest path to the division flag, but they must still play at Air Force. The other two contenders have tough closing schedules, as Wyoming closes with San Diego State and New Mexico, and the Lobos play at Colorado State before hosting the Cowboys. In the event there is a tie, Wyoming owns the tiebreaker over Boise State, and Boise State owns the tiebreaker over New Mexico. If the three teams finished tied with 6-2 records, it will depend on whether Wyoming’s second loss was to San Diego State or New Mexico that determines who gets the nod.

There is no trouble about the West Division race. SDSU wrapped it up about the time the Cubs won the World Series. The Aztecs will be the only division team to become bowl eligible, unless UNLV can upset Boise State and beat Nevada.

Pac-12
There is very little chance that a Pac-12 team will make the Playoffs this year after Washington fell to USC. The contending teams are now playing for a trip to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl.

In the North, it is now Washington State in the lead, but that lead could be short-lived. After winning eight consecutive games for the first time since 1930, the Cougars close with games at Colorado and at home against Washington. The game in Boulder is now the tougher game of the two, as we believe Coach Mike Leach’s club will top the Huskies in the Apple Cup game at beautiful Martin Stadium. Washington can still win the division flag by winning in the Palouse on Black Friday.

Colorado has a half-game lead over USC in the South, but the Trojans hold the tiebreaker over the Buffs should the two teams tie. CU closes with home games against WSU and Utah, and Coach Mike MacIntyre would have to become one of the leading candidates for National Coach of the Year, should CU win both of these games and claim the South crown after being picked last in the preseason.

Don’t forget Utah just yet. The Utes are a game back at 5-2 and host Oregon before heading to Boulder a week later. If Utah beats the Ducks and then knocks off CU, the Utes would own the tiebreaker over a 7-2 CU and 7-2 USC.

USC can win the South by beating UCLA this week and then hoping that both CU and Utah lose a game. One of the other two must lose because they face off, but the winner of that game will have to lose this week as well.

Southeastern
The only race is in the East, and it is now a two-team race between Florida and Tennessee. If the Gators beat LSU this weekend, they are in the SEC Championship Game for a second consecutive year. If LSU wins, and then Tennessee beats Missouri and Vanderbilt, the Vols will head to the Championship Game.

Alabama has already wrapped up the SEC West, and if they win out, they will be the heaviest favorite in the three-year existence of the Playoffs. A 15-0 Crimson Tide National Champion would have to rank up there with Miami of 2001, Nebraska of 1971 and 1995, USC of 1932 and 1972, and Army of 1944 and 1945 as the best team of all time.

Sunbelt
If you think Louisville deserves a shot at the College Football Playoffs with an 11-1 record and the lone loss at Clemson in a game that went to the final minute, then what about Troy? Troy could also finish 11-1 with its lone loss at Clemson in a game that came down to the final minute. The Trojans debuted in the AP Top 25 this week, but don’t expect this team to make it to an New Year’s 6 Bowl game, even if they win out. Western Michigan, San Diego State, and Boise State must all lose a game before Troy has a chance, and if Houston beats Louisville, the Cougars will top the Trojans as well.

Troy still has three games left on its schedule, and one of those three is a home game Thursday night against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are still undefeated in conference play, so the conference championship will be up for grabs this week.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	138.0	131.4	138.1	135.8
2	Ohio St.	128.9	128.3	129.5	128.9
3	Michigan	129.2	126.9	129.2	128.4
4	Louisville	129.4	125.0	129.6	128.0
5	Washington	128.0	121.0	127.4	125.5
6	Clemson	127.4	120.7	126.3	124.8
7	LSU	126.3	121.2	125.9	124.5
8	Oklahoma	121.1	119.6	120.8	120.5
9	USC	122.4	117.4	120.7	120.2
10	Auburn	120.3	118.5	120.1	119.6
11	Wisconsin	119.3	116.8	120.0	118.7
12	Florida St.	120.2	114.1	119.5	117.9
13	Washington St.	118.5	115.2	118.3	117.4
14	Colorado	117.8	113.5	117.7	116.4
15	North Carolina	118.2	112.5	118.1	116.3
16	Miami	118.1	112.5	117.8	116.1
17	Virginia Tech	115.9	114.6	115.9	115.5
18	Penn St.	115.0	115.9	114.8	115.2
19	Oklahoma St.	114.8	115.8	114.2	114.9
20	Texas A&M	115.6	113.7	115.0	114.8
21	Tennessee	115.7	113.2	114.8	114.6
22	Stanford	115.9	109.6	115.4	113.6
23	Pittsburgh	115.0	110.9	114.2	113.4
24	Western Michigan	112.7	112.3	114.3	113.1
25	Florida	112.2	113.7	110.5	112.1
26	Utah	114.1	108.8	112.7	111.9
27	West Virginia	112.1	111.5	111.7	111.8
28	Notre Dame	112.8	109.9	111.9	111.5
29	Ole Miss	112.6	108.6	111.4	110.9
30	TCU	110.6	112.1	109.7	110.8
31	Iowa	111.6	109.2	111.3	110.7
32	Texas	110.0	111.0	109.2	110.1
33	San Diego St.	109.7	108.2	111.8	109.9
34	South Florida	109.8	107.9	110.3	109.3
35	Georgia	109.8	108.9	109.1	109.3
36	Northwestern	110.8	107.0	109.9	109.2
37	Arkansas	111.2	106.8	109.5	109.2
38	UCLA	110.0	108.3	109.3	109.2
39	BYU	110.6	105.3	110.5	108.8
40	Baylor	108.4	109.0	108.7	108.7
41	Georgia Tech	109.9	105.9	108.9	108.2
42	Nebraska	109.1	106.5	108.8	108.1
43	Houston	107.9	107.1	109.1	108.0
44	Kansas St.	106.9	109.1	106.8	107.6
45	Temple	107.2	106.4	107.7	107.1
46	Boise St.	106.1	107.0	107.0	106.7
47	Mississippi St.	107.5	105.7	106.5	106.6
48	Western Kentucky	106.7	104.5	108.0	106.4
49	North Carolina St.	106.6	103.5	106.4	105.5
50	Michigan St.	105.9	105.0	104.3	105.1
51	Minnesota	105.5	104.3	105.0	104.9
52	Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.8	104.8
53	Texas Tech	105.3	104.6	104.2	104.7
54	Toledo	103.2	103.7	104.2	103.7
55	Duke	103.9	103.1	103.5	103.5
56	Navy	103.7	102.1	103.6	103.2
57	Memphis	103.9	102.1	102.8	103.0
58	Oregon	103.7	102.2	102.6	102.8
59	Indiana	102.5	104.1	101.9	102.8
60	Wake Forest	102.2	100.6	102.6	101.8
61	Virginia	102.8	100.1	102.0	101.6
62	Arizona St.	102.4	101.1	100.8	101.5
63	Kentucky	101.4	102.0	100.9	101.4
64	Vanderbilt	101.8	98.9	100.5	100.4
65	South Carolina	100.4	100.1	100.1	100.2
66	Appalachian St.	99.3	100.3	101.0	100.2
67	Louisiana Tech	98.7	100.7	100.7	100.0
68	Central Florida	99.1	100.2	100.0	99.8
69	Syracuse	99.9	96.8	98.1	98.3
70	Iowa St.	98.6	98.4	97.8	98.3
71	Missouri	98.7	97.9	98.1	98.3
72	California	100.8	94.5	98.4	97.9
73	Air Force	96.5	98.3	96.8	97.2
74	Troy	94.1	98.2	96.2	96.2
75	Maryland	95.9	98.4	94.1	96.1
76	New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
77	SMU	95.0	94.5	97.1	95.6
78	Northern Illinois	94.7	96.0	95.8	95.5
79	Oregon St.	97.3	92.8	96.0	95.4
80	Boston College	95.9	94.6	95.0	95.2
81	Wyoming	94.1	94.4	94.9	94.5
82	Ohio	92.0	97.7	92.8	94.2
83	Central Michigan	93.0	94.9	93.3	93.7
84	Arizona	94.8	92.5	93.2	93.5
85	Colorado St.	92.6	94.3	93.6	93.5
86	Cincinnati	93.1	93.5	92.7	93.1
87	Arkansas St.	91.3	93.6	93.0	92.6
88	Illinois	93.0	90.0	92.0	91.7
89	Army	88.8	95.2	90.0	91.3
90	East Carolina	90.0	91.6	90.2	90.6
91	Miami (O)	89.6	91.1	91.1	90.6
92	Connecticut	90.8	89.8	90.3	90.3
93	Old Dominion	88.7	91.7	89.7	90.0
94	Purdue	90.5	89.0	89.1	89.5
95	Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
96	Middle Tennessee	88.6	90.1	88.9	89.2
97	Kent St.	87.9	89.4	88.8	88.7
98	Georgia Southern	87.1	87.7	88.8	87.9
99	UTSA	84.9	91.2	87.2	87.8
100	Eastern Michigan	86.7	88.8	87.2	87.6
101	Rutgers	88.7	86.6	87.3	87.6
102	Southern Mississippi	87.1	87.5	87.2	87.3
103	UNLV	85.8	88.6	86.2	86.9
104	Tulane	84.7	88.5	85.5	86.2
105	Idaho	83.3	88.3	85.3	85.6
106	Nevada	84.5	86.7	85.1	85.5
107	Ball St.	84.0	86.3	84.8	85.0
108	Marshall	83.2	86.6	84.0	84.6
109	South Alabama	82.1	88.4	82.9	84.5
110	Kansas	83.5	88.1	81.2	84.3
111	San Jose St.	84.0	84.0	83.7	83.9
112	Akron	81.2	86.4	82.0	83.2
113	Bowling Green	82.8	83.6	83.1	83.2
114	Massachusetts	80.2	86.5	81.3	82.7
115	UL-Lafayette	79.5	84.3	81.1	81.7
116	Florida International	79.6	84.0	80.0	81.2
117	North Texas	79.9	82.9	80.3	81.1
118	Hawaii	80.8	80.3	80.5	80.5
119	Georgia St.	78.0	82.6	79.8	80.1
120	Charlotte	76.7	82.3	77.3	78.8
121	Fresno St.	77.3	80.8	77.0	78.4
122	Florida Atlantic	75.7	80.4	78.3	78.1
123	Buffalo	75.8	82.2	76.3	78.1
124	Rice	75.3	81.9	75.6	77.6
125	UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.8	74.4
126	New Mexico St.	71.8	74.7	72.8	73.1
127	UL-Monroe	70.2	75.4	71.0	72.2
128	Texas St.	65.9	68.4	66.8	67.0

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	109.8	107.9	110.3	109.3
Temple	107.2	106.4	107.7	107.1
Central Florida	99.1	100.2	100.0	99.8
Cincinnati	93.1	93.5	92.7	93.1
East Carolina	90.0	91.6	90.2	90.6
Connecticut	90.8	89.8	90.3	90.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	107.9	107.1	109.1	108.0
Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.8	104.8
Navy	103.7	102.1	103.6	103.2
Memphis	103.9	102.1	102.8	103.0
SMU	95.0	94.5	97.1	95.6
Tulane	84.7	88.5	85.5	86.2
AAC Averages	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	129.4	125.0	129.6	128.0
Clemson	127.4	120.7	126.3	124.8
Florida St.	120.2	114.1	119.5	117.9
North Carolina St.	106.6	103.5	106.4	105.5
Wake Forest	102.2	100.6	102.6	101.8
Syracuse	99.9	96.8	98.1	98.3
Boston College	95.9	94.6	95.0	95.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	118.2	112.5	118.1	116.3
Miami	118.1	112.5	117.8	116.1
Virginia Tech	115.9	114.6	115.9	115.5
Pittsburgh	115.0	110.9	114.2	113.4
Georgia Tech	109.9	105.9	108.9	108.2
Duke	103.9	103.1	103.5	103.5
Virginia	102.8	100.1	102.0	101.6
ACC Averages	111.8	108.2	111.3	110.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	121.1	119.6	120.8	120.5
Oklahoma St.	114.8	115.8	114.2	114.9
West Virginia	112.1	111.5	111.7	111.8
TCU	110.6	112.1	109.7	110.8
Texas	110.0	111.0	109.2	110.1
Baylor	108.4	109.0	108.7	108.7
Kansas St.	106.9	109.1	106.8	107.6
Texas Tech	105.3	104.6	104.2	104.7
Iowa St.	98.6	98.4	97.8	98.3
Kansas	83.5	88.1	81.2	84.3
Big 12 Averages	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.9	128.3	129.5	128.9
Michigan	129.2	126.9	129.2	128.4
Penn St.	115.0	115.9	114.8	115.2
Michigan St.	105.9	105.0	104.3	105.1
Indiana	102.5	104.1	101.9	102.8
Maryland	95.9	98.4	94.1	96.1
Rutgers	88.7	86.6	87.3	87.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	119.3	116.8	120.0	118.7
Iowa	111.6	109.2	111.3	110.7
Northwestern	110.8	107.0	109.9	109.2
Nebraska	109.1	106.5	108.8	108.1
Minnesota	105.5	104.3	105.0	104.9
Illinois	93.0	90.0	92.0	91.7
Purdue	90.5	89.0	89.1	89.5
Big Ten Averages	107.6	106.3	106.9	106.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	106.7	104.5	108.0	106.4
Old Dominion	88.7	91.7	89.7	90.0
Middle Tennessee	88.6	90.1	88.9	89.2
Marshall	83.2	86.6	84.0	84.6
Florida International	79.6	84.0	80.0	81.2
Charlotte	76.7	82.3	77.3	78.8
Florida Atlantic	75.7	80.4	78.3	78.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	98.7	100.7	100.7	100.0
UTSA	84.9	91.2	87.2	87.8
Southern Mississippi	87.1	87.5	87.2	87.3
North Texas	79.9	82.9	80.3	81.1
Rice	75.3	81.9	75.6	77.6
UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.8	74.4
CUSA Averages	84.4	87.8	85.5	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.8	109.9	111.9	111.5
BYU	110.6	105.3	110.5	108.8
Army	88.8	95.2	90.0	91.3
Massachusetts	80.2	86.5	81.3	82.7
Independents Averages	98.1	99.2	98.4	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	92.0	97.7	92.8	94.2
Miami (O)	89.6	91.1	91.1	90.6
Kent St.	87.9	89.4	88.8	88.7
Akron	81.2	86.4	82.0	83.2
Bowling Green	82.8	83.6	83.1	83.2
Buffalo	75.8	82.2	76.3	78.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	112.7	112.3	114.3	113.1
Toledo	103.2	103.7	104.2	103.7
Northern Illinois	94.7	96.0	95.8	95.5
Central Michigan	93.0	94.9	93.3	93.7
Eastern Michigan	86.7	88.8	87.2	87.6
Ball St.	84.0	86.3	84.8	85.0
MAC Averages	90.3	92.7	91.1	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	107.0	107.0	106.7
Air Force	96.5	98.3	96.8	97.2
New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
Wyoming	94.1	94.4	94.9	94.5
Colorado St.	92.6	94.3	93.6	93.5
Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	109.7	108.2	111.8	109.9
UNLV	85.8	88.6	86.2	86.9
Nevada	84.5	86.7	85.1	85.5
San Jose St.	84.0	84.0	83.7	83.9
Hawaii	80.8	80.3	80.5	80.5
Fresno St.	77.3	80.8	77.0	78.4
MWC Averages	91.2	92.6	91.7	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	128.0	121.0	127.4	125.5
Washington St.	118.5	115.2	118.3	117.4
Stanford	115.9	109.6	115.4	113.6
Oregon	103.7	102.2	102.6	102.8
California	100.8	94.5	98.4	97.9
Oregon St.	97.3	92.8	96.0	95.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	122.4	117.4	120.7	120.2
Colorado	117.8	113.5	117.7	116.4
Utah	114.1	108.8	112.7	111.9
UCLA	110.0	108.3	109.3	109.2
Arizona St.	102.4	101.1	100.8	101.5
Arizona	94.8	92.5	93.2	93.5
Pac-12 Averages	110.5	106.4	109.4	108.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	115.7	113.2	114.8	114.6
Florida	112.2	113.7	110.5	112.1
Georgia	109.8	108.9	109.1	109.3
Kentucky	101.4	102.0	100.9	101.4
Vanderbilt	101.8	98.9	100.5	100.4
South Carolina	100.4	100.1	100.1	100.2
Missouri	98.7	97.9	98.1	98.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	138.0	131.4	138.1	135.8
LSU	126.3	121.2	125.9	124.5
Auburn	120.3	118.5	120.1	119.6
Texas A&M	115.6	113.7	115.0	114.8
Ole Miss	112.6	108.6	111.4	110.9
Arkansas	111.2	106.8	109.5	109.2
Mississippi St.	107.5	105.7	106.5	106.6
SEC Averages	112.3	110.1	111.5	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	99.3	100.3	101.0	100.2
Troy	94.1	98.2	96.2	96.2
Arkansas St.	91.3	93.6	93.0	92.6
Georgia Southern	87.1	87.7	88.8	87.9
Idaho	83.3	88.3	85.3	85.6
South Alabama	82.1	88.4	82.9	84.5
UL-Lafayette	79.5	84.3	81.1	81.7
Georgia St.	78.0	82.6	79.8	80.1
New Mexico St.	71.8	74.7	72.8	73.1
UL-Monroe	70.2	75.4	71.0	72.2
Texas St.	65.9	68.4	66.8	67.0
Sun Belt Averages	82.1	85.7	83.5	83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.3	110.1	111.5	111.3
2	ACC	111.8	108.2	111.3	110.4
3	Pac-12	110.5	106.4	109.4	108.8
4	Big 12	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
5	Big Ten	107.6	106.3	106.9	106.9
6	AAC	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.3
7	Independents	98.1	99.2	98.4	98.6
8	MWC	91.2	92.6	91.7	91.8
9	MAC	90.3	92.7	91.1	91.4
10	CUSA	84.4	87.8	85.5	85.9
11	Sun Belt	82.1	85.7	83.5	83.7

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

Retrodictive ratings are similar to poll rankings–wins and schedule strength

These ratings are not predictive in nature

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Louisville
4	Clemson
5	Michigan
6	Wisconsin
7	Washington
8	Penn St.
9	USC
10	Colorado
11	Western Michigan
12	Washington St.
13	Oklahoma
14	Florida St.
15	Auburn
16	LSU
17	West Virginia
18	Boise St.
19	Nebraska
20	Texas A&M
21	Utah
22	Stanford
23	Tennessee
24	Florida
25	Oklahoma St.
26	South Florida
27	North Carolina
28	Virginia Tech
29	Houston
30	San Diego St.
31	Troy
32	Ole Miss
33	Pittsburgh
34	Miami (Fla)
35	Navy
36	Temple
37	Iowa
38	BYU
39	Arkansas
40	Toledo
41	Tulsa
42	Northwestern
43	Minnesota
44	Western Kentucky
45	Appalachian St.
46	Georgia
47	Kansas St.
48	Baylor
49	Georgia Tech
50	Louisiana Tech
51	TCU
52	UCLA
53	Wyoming
54	Memphis
55	Texas
56	Central Florida
57	North Carolina St.
58	Arizona St.
59	Air Force
60	Wake Forest
61	Indiana
62	Kentucky
63	California
64	Mississippi St.
65	Maryland
66	South Carolina
67	New Mexico
68	Notre Dame
69	Old Dominion
70	Texas Tech
71	Oregon
72	Ohio
73	Colorado St.
74	Duke
75	SMU
76	Vanderbilt
77	Arkansas St.
78	Idaho
79	Syracuse
80	Eastern Michigan
81	Boston College
82	Middle Tennessee
83	Oregon St.
84	Michigan St.
85	Central Michigan
86	Illinois
87	Missouri
88	Georgia Southern
89	Southern Miss.
90	UTSA
91	Army
92	Miami (O)
93	Cincinnati
94	Arizona
95	South Alabama
96	Northern Illinois
97	Utah St.
98	Akron
99	East Carolina
100	Virginia
101	Tulane
102	UL-Lafayette
103	Kent St.
104	UNLV
105	Hawaii
106	Iowa St.
107	Connecticut
108	Purdue
109	North Texas
110	Ball St.
111	Rutgers
112	UL-Monroe
113	San Jose St.
114	Charlotte
115	Marshall
116	Bowling Green
117	Nevada
118	Georgia St.
119	Florida Int’l.
120	New Mexico St.
121	Massachusetts
122	UTEP
123	Kansas
124	Florida Atlantic
125	Texas St.
126	Buffalo
127	Rice
128	Fresno St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 15
Bowling Green	Kent St.	-3.1	-3.8	-3.7
Central Michigan	Ohio U	3.5	-0.3	3.0
Wednesday, November 16
Toledo	Ball St.	21.7	19.9	21.9
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	-5.5	-4.7	-6.1
Thursday, November 17
Houston	Louisville	-18.5	-14.9	-17.5
Troy	Arkansas St.	5.8	7.6	6.2
Friday, November 18
Cincinnati	Memphis	-7.8	-5.6	-7.1
Boise St.	UNLV	23.3	21.4	23.8
Saturday, November 19
Oregon St.	Arizona	5.5	3.3	5.8
Colorado	Washington St.	2.3	1.3	2.4
Utah	Oregon	13.4	9.6	13.1
SMU	South Florida	-11.8	-10.4	-9.2
TCU	Oklahoma St.	-1.2	-0.7	-1.5
Illinois	Iowa	-15.6	-16.2	-16.3
Minnesota	Northwestern	-1.7	0.3	-1.9
Baylor	Kansas St.	4.7	2.9	4.9
Nebraska	Maryland	16.2	11.1	17.7
Purdue	Wisconsin	-25.8	-24.8	-27.9
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-20.0	-20.3	-22.2
Texas A&M	UTSA	33.2	25.0	30.3
Georgia	UL-Lafayette	33.3	27.6	31.0
Rice	UTEP	5.4	7.5	4.3
Georgia Tech	Virginia	10.1	8.8	9.9
North Carolina St.	Miami (Fla.)	-8.5	-6.0	-8.4
LSU	Florida	17.1	10.5	18.4
Boston College	Connecticut	7.1	6.8	6.7
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-9.4	-5.3	-9.1
BYU	Massachusetts	33.9	22.3	32.7
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	-7.1	-3.1	-7.0
Appalachian St.	UL-Monroe	32.1	27.9	33.0
Pittsburgh	Duke	14.1	10.8	13.7
Western Michigan	Buffalo	39.9	33.1	41.0
Syracuse	Florida St.	-17.3	-14.3	-19.4
Kansas	Texas	-23.5	-19.9	-25.0
Wyoming	San Diego St.	-12.6	-10.8	-13.9
Notre Dame	Virginia Tech	-0.1	-1.7	-1.0
Tennessee	Missouri	20.0	18.3	19.7
Tulane	Temple	-19.5	-14.9	-19.2
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	-3.7	-3.2	-3.4
Michigan	Indiana	29.7	25.8	30.3
East Carolina	Navy	-10.7	-7.5	-10.4
New Mexico St.	Texas St.	8.4	8.8	8.5
California	Stanford	-14.1	-14.1	-16.0
North Texas	Southern Miss.	-4.7	-2.1	-4.4
Florida Atlantic	Old Dominion	-10.0	-8.3	-8.4
Wake Forest	Clemson	-22.2	-17.1	-20.7
Fresno St.	Hawaii	0.5	4.5	0.5
Florida Int’l.	Marshall	-1.1	-0.1	-1.5
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	-0.7	1.9	0.1
Washington	Arizona St.	28.6	22.9	29.6
Central Florida	Tulsa	-2.0	-1.8	-1.8
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-6.0	-5.1	-6.1
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	-8.8	-7.7	-8.9
Rutgers	Penn St.	-23.8	-26.8	-25.0
Colorado St.	New Mexico	1.0	0.5	1.2
UCLA	USC	-11.4	-8.1	-10.4
San Jose St.	Air Force	-9.5	-11.3	-10.1
Nevada	Utah St.	-0.9	-1.6	-0.2

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS vs. FCS	Week 12
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Morgan St.	41
North Carolina	Citadel	28
South Carolina	Western Carolina	30
Kentucky	Austin Peay	41
Alabama	Chattanooga	49
South Alabama	Presbyterian	30
Auburn	Alabama A&M	59

Bowl Projections

This week, we show 77 teams reaching bowl eligibility.  Three non-bowl eligible teams would thus be needed to fill in as alternates.  Of the three, only one team would have a 5-7 record, as the other two teams figure to be 6-6 with two FCS wins apiece.  Oddly, no at-large spots were needed other than the three alternate slots.

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	UTSA
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Arizona St.	vs.	San Diego St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Fla.	vs.	Idaho
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	vs.	Arkansas St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Middle Tenn.	vs.	Troy
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Memphis	vs.	Ohio U
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	vs.	Old Dominion
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Wyoming	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Miami (O)	vs.	Colorado St.
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Houston	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	Kansas St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Eastern Mich.	vs.	Appy St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	La. Tech	vs.	Air Force
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Temple	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Wake Forest	vs.	{Army}
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	Kentucky	vs.	{Boston Coll.}
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	{S. Alabama}	vs.	North Texas
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	N. C. State	vs.	South Florida
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Washington
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	California
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	Oklahoma St.
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	vs.	Utah
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Auburn
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulsa	vs.	S. Carolina
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma	vs.	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	vs.	Texas A&M
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	N.Carolina	vs.	Stanford
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	W. Kentucky	vs.	Boise St.
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Indiana	vs.	Georgia
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Clemson	vs.	Penn St.
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Tennessee
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Georgia Tech	vs.	Ole Miss
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Wisconsin
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Ohio St.	vs.	Louisville
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	vs.	Florida
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Western Mich.	vs.	Colorado
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	vs.	Wash. St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	LSU
CFP Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Ohio St.
{Team}	Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team

 

 

 

 

 

 

Computer Simulations–Simper Bowl IX & Today’s College Playoffs

We are combining our own computer simulation championship game from our annual project with the actual College Football Playoff games today into one entity.

 

Simper Bowl IX

This year, we decided to expand our own computer college playoff to 24 teams just like in the Football Championship Series.  The prior rounds have been played, and you can search for the results on this site.  The Championship Game today pits #3 seed Oklahoma against #16 seed Ole Miss.

Oklahoma received a first round bye as the #3 seed.  The Sooners defeated Michigan 47-28 in the Sweet 16; Ohio State 26-20 in the Elite 8; and Stanford 31-20 in the Semifinal Round.

Ole Miss had to play in the opening round as the #16 seed.  The Rebels defeated Houston 39-24 in that round to advance to the Sweet 16.  Then, Ole Miss defeated top-ranked Clemson 35-20 in the Sweet 16; North Carolina 27-16 in the Elite 8; and Michigan State 27-17 in the Semifinals.

 

Here are the championship results.

Simper Bowl IX	1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#3 Oklahoma	10	6	7	7	30	22	166	252	418
#16 Ole Miss	13	7	0	14	34	27	249	302	551

Congratulations to the Ole Miss Rebels, winner of Simper Bowl IX.

 

The College Football Playoffs 2015-16–The Real Larry Culpepper Playoffs

This is what you have been waiting for.  Yesterday, we input all the stats and schedule strengths for the four teams in today’s playoffs.  We even included the recent suspensions of Clemson players in the loss of talent.

 

We then simulated both games 100 times coming up with the number of wins, the average score, the standard deviations of the games, and the outlier scores in both directions.

 

Orange Bowl

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL

Time: 4:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, and Holly Rowe

Radio: ESPN, Bill Rosinksi, David Norrie, Joe Schad

Teams: Clemson (13-0) vs. Oklahoma (11-1)

100 Sims

Clemson wins: 39

Oklahoma wins: 61

Average Score: Oklahoma 30.7  Clemson 22.1

Standard Deviation: 8.6

Outlier A: Oklahoma 51  Clemson  16

Outlier B: Clemson 37  Oklahoma 14

 

Cotton Bowl

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, and Tom Rinaldi

Radio: ESPN, Brad Sham, Danny Kannell, and Ian Fitzsimmons

Teams: Alabama (12-1) vs. Michigan St. (12-1)

100 Sims

Alabama wins: 53

Michigan St. wins: 47

Average Score: Alabama 20.5  Michigan St. 18.8

Standard Deviation: 5.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan St. 6

Outlier B: Michigan St. 27  Alabama 16

Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs 2015-16: Round 2

Welcome back to round 2 of our computer simulated college football playoffs.  If you did not see last week’s posting of round 1, we are taking the Football Bowl Subdivision teams and applying the Football Championship Series rules to the playoffs.

 

Thus our FBS simulated playoffs consisted of 24 teams with every conference champion guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.

 

Here were this week’s Round 2 Pairings.

Second Round
#9 Notre Dame	at
#8 North Carolina
#10 Florida St.	at
#7 Stanford
#11 TCU	at
#6 Ohio St.
#12 Baylor	at
#5 Michigan St.
#13 Northwestern	at
#4 Iowa
#19 Michigan	at
#3 Oklahoma
#15 Oregon	at
#2 Alabama
#16 Ole Miss	at
#1 Clemson

 

The games were simulated, and there were some surprises.  Here are the final scores of the games.

North Carolina 27  Notre Dame 23

Stanford 24  Florida St. 20

Ohio St. 34  TCU 21

Michigan St. 27  Baylor 24

Iowa 23 Northwestern 17

Oklahoma 47  Michigan 28

Alabama 20  Oregon 16

Ole Miss 35  Clemson 20

 

Here are the basic stats for those games.

Second Round		1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#9 Notre Dame	at	0	14	6	3	23	19	171	149	320
#8 North Carolina		7	10	3	7	27	20	135	271	406
#10 Florida St.	at	6	14	0	0	20	17	183	128	311
#7 Stanford		3	7	7	7	24	18	206	149	355
#11 TCU	at	0	7	14	0	21	18	130	211	341
#6 Ohio St.		6	3	15	10	34	34	271	138	409
#12 Baylor	at	0	3	14	7	24	23	98	226	324
#5 Michigan St.		6	14	7	0	27	16	188	177	365
#13 Northwestern	at	10	0	7	0	17	16	129	176	305
#4 Iowa		0	6	3	14	23	16	135	153	288
#19 Michigan	at	0	7	7	14	28	22	169	250	419
#3 Oklahoma		14	17	9	7	47	27	251	279	530
#15 Oregon	at	3	3	10	0	16	14	76	202	278
#2 Alabama		7	7	3	3	20	18	247	139	386
#16 Ole Miss	at	21	7	7	0	35	23	190	194	384
#1 Clemson		0	6	7	7	20	17	147	161	308

 

Here are the pairings for the Quarterfinal Round.

Quarterfinal Round
#16 Ole Miss	at
#8 North Carolina
#7 Stanford	at
#2 Alabama
#6 Ohio St.	at
#3 Oklahoma
#5 Michigan St.	at
#4 Iowa

College Football Preview: November 24-28, 2015

Need Nine More
As of today, there are 71 bowl eligible teams with nine more needed to avoid having to invite a team with a losing record. Good news, because there are 18 teams that still have a chance to become bowl eligible, so just half of these teams need to get to six wins. At the present time, we project 82 teams to become bowl eligible, meaning two teams will not get invitations.

Here is a breakdown by conference.

POWER 5 CONFERENCES
Atlantic Coast
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:45 PM or 8:00 PM Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC on ABC or ESPN

Atlantic Division Champion: Clemson

Coastal Division Champion: North Carolina

Bowl Eligible: 8 (9)
Clemson, Duke, Florida St., Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St., Pittsburgh, (Notre Dame)

Still Alive
Virginia Tech 5-6 must defeat Virginia this week
Note: Notre Dame can receive any ACC Bowl, and they can jump ahead of any ACC team with one more win than they have.

Big 12
No Championship Game
Championship Scenarios
Oklahoma controls its own destiny. If they beat Oklahoma St., the Sooners are champs.
Oklahoma State can win title if TCU beats Baylor, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.
Baylor can win title if they beat TCU and Texas and Oklahoma St. beats Oklahoma.

Bowl Eligible: 6
Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Still Alive
Kansas St. 4-6 must beat Kansas and West Virginia
Texas 4-6 must beat Texas Tech and Baylor

Big Ten
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 8:15 PM Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN on Fox Sports

East Division Scenarios
Michigan St. controls its own destiny. If they beat Penn St., the Spartans are division champions
If Michigan St. loses, the Ohio St.-Michigan winner wins the division title

West Division Champion: Iowa

Bowl Eligible: 7
Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St., Northwestern, Ohio St., Penn St., Wisconsin

Still Alive
Illinois 5-6 must beat Northwestern
Indiana 5-6 must beat Purdue
Minnesota 5-6 must beat Wisconsin
Nebraska 5-6 must beat Iowa

Pac-12
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:45 PM or 8:00 PM Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA on ABC or ESPN

North Division Champion: Stanford
South Division Champion: UCLA-USC winner

Bowl Eligible: 9
Arizona, Arizona St., California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington St.

Still Alive
Washington 5-6 must beat Washington St.

Southeastern
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 4:00 PM Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA on CBS

East Division Champion: Florida

West Division Champion Scenarios
Alabama controls its own destiny. If they beat Auburn, they are West Division champions
Ole Miss can win the division if they beat Mississippi St., and Auburn beats Alabama

Bowl Eligible: 10
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., Tennessee, Texas A&M

Still Alive
Kentucky 5-6 must beat Louisville
Missouri 5-6 must beat Arkansas

GROUP OF 5 CONFERENCES
American Athletic
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 Noon at West Division Champion on ABC or ESPN

East Division Scenarios
Temple controls their own destiny. If they beat Connecticut, the Owls are in the AAC Championship Game.
If South Florida beats Central Florida and Temple loses, then USF is division champ.
West Division Champion: Houston-Navy winner will host Championship Game

Bowl Eligible: 7
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Temple

Still Alive
East Carolina 5-6 must beat Cincinnati
Tulsa 5-6 must beat Tulane

Conference USA
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 Noon at home stadium of team with the better record, on ESPN2

East Division Champion: Western Kentucky-Marshall winner

West Division Champion: Louisiana Tech-Southern Miss. winner

Bowl Eligible: 5
Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss., Western Kentucky

Still Alive
Old Dominion 5-6 must beat Florida Atlantic

Independents
Notre Dame is bowl eligible and figures in the ACC bowls
BYU is bowl eligible and will play in the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl
Army is not bowl eligible, opening up an at-large spot in the Poinsettia Bowl

Mid-American
Championship Game: Friday, December 4, 8:00 PM Ford Field, Detroit, MI on ESPN2

East Division Champion: Bowling Green

West Division Scenarios
Northern Illinois controls its own destiny. If the Broncos beat Ohio, they are division champs.
Toledo wins the division title if they beat Western Michigan, and Ohio beats Northern Illinois.

Bowl Eligible: 7
Akron, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive
Buffalo 5-6 must beat Massachusetts

Mountain West
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:30 PM at Air Force on ESPN2

Mountain Division Champion: Air Force

West Division Champion: San Diego St.

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Colorado St., New Mexico, Nevada, San Diego St., Utah St.

Still Alive
San Jose St. 5-6 must beat Boise St.

Sun Belt
No Championship Game

Championship Scenarios
Arkansas St. 6-0 controls its own destiny and has New Mexico St. and Texas St. remaining
Appalachian St. 5-1 wins the SBC if Arkansas St. loses both games, and Appy beats ULL and South Alabama
Georgia Southern 5-1 wins the SBC if Arkansas St. loses both games, Appy St. loses one game, and GSU beats South Alabama and Georgia St.

Bowl Eligible: 3
Appalachian St., Arkansas St., Georgia Southern

Still Alive
Georgia St. 4-6 must beat Troy and Georgia Southern
UL-Lafayette 4-6 must beat Appalachian St. and Troy
South Alabama 5-5 must beat either Georgia Southern or Appalachian St.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	131.7	129.4	131.8	131.0
2	Oklahoma	127.7	124.0	128.4	126.7
3	Baylor	127.3	123.6	127.7	126.2
4	Ohio St.	126.7	121.9	127.0	125.2
5	Stanford	123.4	120.6	123.4	122.5
6	North Carolina	121.8	122.2	122.2	122.1
7	Ole Miss	124.0	119.2	122.6	121.9
8	Clemson	121.5	122.5	121.4	121.8
9	TCU	123.0	115.3	123.7	120.7
10	Notre Dame	121.0	118.6	120.5	120.0
11	UCLA	121.9	116.2	120.8	119.6
12	Arkansas	120.5	115.6	119.7	118.6
13	Tennessee	119.8	115.8	119.7	118.4
14	Oregon	120.1	114.8	120.3	118.4
15	USC	119.6	115.0	118.7	117.8
16	LSU	119.3	115.6	118.4	117.8
17	Michigan	117.8	115.4	117.8	117.0
18	Utah	119.3	113.6	117.8	116.9
19	Oklahoma St.	117.6	114.4	117.2	116.4
20	Mississippi St.	116.9	113.8	117.5	116.1
21	Michigan St.	117.1	114.2	116.8	116.0
22	Florida	116.7	113.4	116.7	115.6
23	Florida St.	115.2	116.5	114.8	115.5
24	Texas A&M	116.9	113.7	115.4	115.3
25	Georgia	116.1	110.8	115.4	114.1
26	West Virginia	115.2	109.7	114.4	113.1
27	California	115.0	109.7	114.1	112.9
28	Arizona St.	114.4	109.5	114.0	112.6
29	Washington	113.4	110.1	113.3	112.3
30	Auburn	113.6	110.4	112.3	112.1
31	Iowa	110.9	112.7	111.4	111.7
32	Virginia Tech	110.8	110.7	111.1	110.9
33	Wisconsin	111.0	110.3	109.5	110.3
34	Houston	107.7	113.1	109.1	110.0
35	Washington St.	110.5	107.1	111.3	109.6
36	Navy	107.5	111.6	109.2	109.4
37	North Carolina St.	109.4	110.6	107.9	109.3
38	Western Kentucky	108.9	109.0	109.9	109.3
39	Pittsburgh	108.6	109.6	109.5	109.2
40	Bowling Green	106.6	111.2	109.5	109.1
41	Nebraska	109.1	107.4	108.6	108.4
42	San Diego St.	106.1	110.7	108.2	108.3
43	Temple	107.1	109.3	108.3	108.2
44	Georgia Tech	109.1	106.9	107.5	107.8
45	BYU	107.3	107.2	107.9	107.5
46	Louisville	107.0	108.9	106.4	107.4
47	Missouri	108.2	104.7	107.2	106.7
48	Toledo	105.4	106.9	107.1	106.5
49	Penn St.	106.3	106.1	105.9	106.1
50	Boise St.	107.0	104.0	106.5	105.8
51	Northwestern	105.6	105.9	105.7	105.7
52	Arizona	107.9	102.4	106.8	105.7
53	Memphis	105.2	106.3	105.5	105.7
54	Minnesota	105.7	104.5	105.5	105.2
55	South Carolina	106.9	103.3	105.4	105.2
56	Texas Tech	107.9	99.7	107.7	105.1
57	Miami	104.7	104.9	105.2	104.9
58	Illinois	104.9	102.6	103.7	103.7
59	Texas	104.9	101.1	104.7	103.6
60	Cincinnati	102.0	103.9	103.3	103.1
61	Duke	103.0	102.7	102.7	102.8
62	South Florida	100.3	106.1	101.4	102.6
63	Colorado	104.6	99.7	102.7	102.3
64	Virginia	102.6	101.5	102.8	102.3
65	Western Michigan	101.2	102.2	102.1	101.8
66	Louisiana Tech	101.3	101.6	102.1	101.7
67	Kansas St.	105.1	95.6	104.1	101.6
68	Boston College	100.8	103.3	99.5	101.2
69	Air Force	99.8	103.5	100.1	101.1
70	Kentucky	102.8	99.0	101.6	101.1
71	Georgia Southern	99.7	102.1	101.2	101.0
72	Northern Illinois	98.2	102.3	99.6	100.0
73	Iowa St.	100.8	97.1	101.1	99.7
74	Indiana	99.6	99.7	99.5	99.6
75	Vanderbilt	100.5	96.4	99.9	98.9
76	Marshall	98.4	99.3	98.6	98.8
77	Appalachian St.	96.9	100.2	98.9	98.7
78	Utah St.	98.4	98.9	97.4	98.2
79	Wake Forest	96.5	99.6	96.2	97.4
80	Southern Mississippi	95.4	98.0	96.4	96.6
81	East Carolina	94.7	98.5	95.6	96.3
82	Purdue	96.5	95.7	95.2	95.8
83	Syracuse	94.6	97.2	94.3	95.4
84	Arkansas St.	93.9	95.1	95.5	94.8
85	Middle Tennessee	94.6	93.9	94.4	94.3
86	Colorado St.	93.6	94.0	93.5	93.7
87	Connecticut	91.3	96.5	93.1	93.6
88	San Jose St.	92.5	95.3	92.9	93.6
89	Maryland	94.0	92.7	93.7	93.5
90	Central Michigan	91.1	95.2	93.3	93.2
91	Rutgers	94.0	91.5	91.9	92.5
92	Tulsa	89.4	93.4	90.3	91.0
93	Nevada	89.6	93.4	89.7	90.9
94	New Mexico	90.9	91.3	89.8	90.7
95	Ohio	87.2	91.3	88.8	89.1
96	Akron	85.0	91.0	87.1	87.7
97	SMU	85.3	88.9	84.9	86.4
98	Oregon St.	87.7	84.3	85.6	85.9
99	Florida Atlantic	84.2	87.6	85.1	85.6
100	Florida International	83.8	86.2	83.9	84.6
101	Buffalo	81.5	87.1	82.6	83.7
102	Massachusetts	82.2	85.3	82.5	83.3
103	UNLV	82.3	84.2	82.9	83.1
104	Tulane	82.6	85.2	81.5	83.1
105	Troy	81.9	83.4	82.9	82.7
106	Georgia St.	80.5	82.0	81.5	81.3
107	Army	78.1	85.6	79.4	81.0
108	Fresno St.	80.7	83.5	78.5	80.9
109	Ball St.	80.0	82.2	80.4	80.9
110	UL-Lafayette	80.2	82.6	79.8	80.9
111	UT-San Antonio	78.8	81.5	79.4	79.9
112	Wyoming	79.6	81.0	78.2	79.6
113	Kent St.	78.2	80.9	78.7	79.3
114	UTEP	78.4	81.0	78.2	79.2
115	Rice	78.2	80.9	77.6	78.9
116	Hawaii	78.2	79.8	76.9	78.3
117	Old Dominion	76.6	80.5	76.2	77.8
118	Central Florida	76.7	79.5	76.6	77.6
119	South Alabama	75.4	80.5	76.3	77.4
120	Miami (O)	75.4	80.3	76.3	77.3
121	Idaho	73.8	78.8	75.0	75.9
122	Texas St.	74.5	77.2	74.5	75.4
123	New Mexico St.	73.2	75.3	73.8	74.1
124	North Texas	72.4	75.8	72.2	73.5
125	Kansas	75.7	69.3	73.4	72.8
126	Eastern Michigan	70.7	76.6	70.1	72.5
127	UL-Monroe	70.8	69.7	70.1	70.2
128	Charlotte	67.9	69.6	67.8	68.4

 

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Clemson
3	Oklahoma
4	Ohio St.
5	Notre Dame
6	Iowa
7	Baylor
8	Michigan St.
9	Stanford
10	Oklahoma St.
11	Michigan
12	TCU
13	Florida
14	North Carolina
15	Ole Miss
16	Florida St.
17	Navy
18	Mississippi St.
19	Northwestern
20	Oregon
21	Utah
22	LSU
23	USC
24	UCLA
25	Toledo
26	Tennessee
27	Houston
28	Pittsburgh
29	Wisconsin
30	Texas A&M
31	Washington St.
32	Arkansas
33	Georgia
34	West Virginia
35	Temple
36	Memphis
37	California
38	BYU
39	Penn St.
40	Western Kentucky
41	Bowling Green
42	Texas Tech
43	Auburn
44	South Florida
45	Miami (Fla)
46	Washington
47	North Carolina St.
48	Arizona St.
49	Appalachian St.
50	San Diego St.
51	Northern Illinois
52	Louisville
53	Georgia Southern
54	Nebraska
55	Air Force
56	Virginia Tech
57	Minnesota
58	Louisiana Tech
59	Marshall
60	Texas
61	Indiana
62	Boise St.
63	Kansas St.
64	Duke
65	Southern Miss.
66	Central Michigan
67	Cincinnati
68	Illinois
69	Arkansas St.
70	Arizona
71	Connecticut
72	Virginia
73	Western Michigan
74	Georgia Tech
75	Utah St.
76	Kentucky
77	Iowa St.
78	Ohio
79	Tulsa
80	Missouri
81	Vanderbilt
82	East Carolina
83	South Carolina
84	Rutgers
85	Middle Tennessee
86	Syracuse
87	Maryland
88	San Jose St.
89	Buffalo
90	Boston College
91	Colorado
92	Akron
93	Colorado St.
94	Wake Forest
95	Nevada
96	Troy
97	New Mexico
98	Purdue
99	South Alabama
100	Oregon St.
101	Georgia St.
102	SMU
103	Florida Int’l.
104	Old Dominion
105	Louisiana-Lafayette
106	UNLV
107	Tulane
108	Ball St.
109	Rice
110	Florida Atlantic
111	UTSA
112	Idaho
113	New Mexico St.
114	Texas St.
115	Kent St.
116	Fresno St.
117	Kansas
118	Massachusetts
119	UTEP
120	Miami (O)
121	Army
122	Hawaii
123	Wyoming
124	Louisiana-Monroe
125	North Texas
126	Charlotte
127	Eastern Michigan
128	Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	6-1	9-2	107.1	109.3	108.3	108.2
Cincinnati	3-4	6-5	102.0	103.9	103.3	103.1
South Florida	5-2	7-4	100.3	106.1	101.4	102.6
East Carolina	3-4	5-6	94.7	98.5	95.6	96.3
Connecticut	4-3	6-5	91.3	96.5	93.1	93.6
Central Florida	0-7	0-11	76.7	79.5	76.6	77.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	6-1	10-1	107.7	113.1	109.1	110.0
Navy	7-0	9-1	107.5	111.6	109.2	109.4
Memphis	4-3	8-3	105.2	106.3	105.5	105.7
Tulsa	2-5	5-6	89.4	93.4	90.3	91.0
SMU	1-6	2-9	85.3	88.9	84.9	86.4
Tulane	1-6	3-8	82.6	85.2	81.5	83.1
AAC Averages			95.8	99.4	96.6	97.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	8-0	11-0	121.5	122.5	121.4	121.8
Florida St.	6-2	9-2	115.2	116.5	114.8	115.5
North Carolina St.	3-4	7-4	109.4	110.6	107.9	109.3
Louisville	5-3	6-5	107.0	108.9	106.4	107.4
Boston College	0-7	3-8	100.8	103.3	99.5	101.2
Wake Forest	1-6	3-8	96.5	99.6	96.2	97.4
Syracuse	1-6	3-8	94.6	97.2	94.3	95.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	7-0	10-1	121.8	122.2	122.2	122.1
Virginia Tech	3-4	5-6	110.8	110.7	111.1	110.9
Pittsburgh	6-1	8-3	108.6	109.6	109.5	109.2
Georgia Tech	1-7	3-8	109.1	106.9	107.5	107.8
Miami	4-3	7-4	104.7	104.9	105.2	104.9
Duke	3-4	6-5	103.0	102.7	102.7	102.8
Virginia	3-4	4-7	102.6	101.5	102.8	102.3
ACC Averages			107.5	108.4	107.3	107.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	7-1	10-1	127.7	124.0	128.4	126.7
Baylor	6-1	9-1	127.3	123.6	127.7	126.2
TCU	6-2	9-2	123.0	115.3	123.7	120.7
Oklahoma St.	7-1	10-1	117.6	114.4	117.2	116.4
West Virginia	3-4	6-4	115.2	109.7	114.4	113.1
Texas Tech	3-5	6-5	107.9	99.7	107.7	105.1
Texas	3-4	4-6	104.9	101.1	104.7	103.6
Kansas St.	1-6	4-6	105.1	95.6	104.1	101.6
Iowa St.	2-6	3-8	100.8	97.1	101.1	99.7
Kansas	0-8	0-11	75.7	69.3	73.4	72.8
Big 12 Averages			110.5	105.0	110.2	108.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	6-1	10-1	126.7	121.9	127.0	125.2
Michigan	6-1	9-2	117.8	115.4	117.8	117.0
Michigan St.	6-1	10-1	117.1	114.2	116.8	116.0
Penn St.	4-3	7-4	106.3	106.1	105.9	106.1
Indiana	1-6	5-6	99.6	99.7	99.5	99.6
Maryland	0-7	2-9	94.0	92.7	93.7	93.5
Rutgers	1-6	4-7	94.0	91.5	91.9	92.5
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	7-0	11-0	110.9	112.7	111.4	111.7
Wisconsin	5-2	8-3	111.0	110.3	109.5	110.3
Nebraska	3-4	5-6	109.1	107.4	108.6	108.4
Northwestern	5-2	9-2	105.6	105.9	105.7	105.7
Minnesota	2-5	5-6	105.7	104.5	105.5	105.2
Illinois	2-5	5-6	104.9	102.6	103.7	103.7
Purdue	1-6	2-9	96.5	95.7	95.2	95.8
Big Ten Averages			107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	7-0	9-2	108.9	109.0	109.9	109.3
Marshall	6-1	9-2	98.4	99.3	98.6	98.8
Middle Tennessee	5-2	6-5	94.6	93.9	94.4	94.3
Florida Atlantic	2-5	2-9	84.2	87.6	85.1	85.6
Florida International	3-5	5-7	83.8	86.2	83.9	84.6
Old Dominion	3-4	5-6	76.6	80.5	76.2	77.8
Charlotte	0-7	2-9	67.9	69.6	67.8	68.4
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	6-1	8-3	101.3	101.6	102.1	101.7
Southern Mississippi	6-1	8-3	95.4	98.0	96.4	96.6
UT-San Antonio	3-4	3-8	78.8	81.5	79.4	79.9
UTEP	2-5	4-7	78.4	81.0	78.2	79.2
Rice	2-5	4-7	78.2	80.9	77.6	78.9
North Texas	1-6	1-10	72.4	75.8	72.2	73.5
CUSA Averages			86.1	88.1	86.3	86.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		10-1	121.0	118.6	120.5	120.0
BYU		8-3	107.3	107.2	107.9	107.5
Army		2-9	78.1	85.6	79.4	81.0
Independents Averages			102.1	103.8	102.6	102.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	6-1	8-3	106.6	111.2	109.5	109.1
Ohio	4-3	7-4	87.2	91.3	88.8	89.1
Akron	4-3	6-5	85.0	91.0	87.1	87.7
Buffalo	3-4	5-6	81.5	87.1	82.6	83.7
Massachusetts	1-6	2-9	82.2	85.3	82.5	83.3
Kent St.	2-5	3-8	78.2	80.9	78.7	79.3
Miami (O)	2-6	3-9	75.4	80.3	76.3	77.3
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	6-1	9-1	105.4	106.9	107.1	106.5
Western Michigan	5-2	6-5	101.2	102.2	102.1	101.8
Northern Illinois	6-1	8-3	98.2	102.3	99.6	100.0
Central Michigan	5-2	6-5	91.1	95.2	93.3	93.2
Ball St.	2-5	3-8	80.0	82.2	80.4	80.9
Eastern Michigan	0-7	1-10	70.7	76.6	70.1	72.5
MAC Averages			87.9	91.7	89.1	89.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	4-3	7-4	107.0	104.0	106.5	105.8
Air Force	6-1	8-3	99.8	103.5	100.1	101.1
Utah St.	5-3	6-5	98.4	98.9	97.4	98.2
Colorado St.	4-3	6-5	93.6	94.0	93.5	93.7
New Mexico	4-3	6-5	90.9	91.3	89.8	90.7
Wyoming	1-6	1-10	79.6	81.0	78.2	79.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	7-0	8-3	106.1	110.7	108.2	108.3
San Jose St.	4-3	5-6	92.5	95.3	92.9	93.6
Nevada	4-3	6-5	89.6	93.4	89.7	90.9
UNLV	2-5	3-8	82.3	84.2	82.9	83.1
Fresno St.	2-6	3-8	80.7	83.5	78.5	80.9
Hawaii	0-8	2-10	78.2	79.8	76.9	78.3
MWC Averages			91.6	93.3	91.2	92.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	8-1	9-2	123.4	120.6	123.4	122.5
Oregon	6-2	8-3	120.1	114.8	120.3	118.4
California	3-5	6-5	115.0	109.7	114.1	112.9
Washington	3-5	5-6	113.4	110.1	113.3	112.3
Washington St.	6-2	8-3	110.5	107.1	111.3	109.6
Oregon St.	0-8	2-9	87.7	84.3	85.6	85.9
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
UCLA	5-3	8-3	121.9	116.2	120.8	119.6
USC	5-3	7-4	119.6	115.0	118.7	117.8
Utah	5-3	8-3	119.3	113.6	117.8	116.9
Arizona St.	4-4	6-5	114.4	109.5	114.0	112.6
Arizona	3-6	6-6	107.9	102.4	106.8	105.7
Colorado	1-7	4-8	104.6	99.7	102.7	102.3
Pac-12 Averages			113.2	108.6	112.4	111.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	4-3	7-4	119.8	115.8	119.7	118.4
Florida	7-1	10-1	116.7	113.4	116.7	115.6
Georgia	5-3	8-3	116.1	110.8	115.4	114.1
Missouri	1-6	5-6	108.2	104.7	107.2	106.7
South Carolina	1-7	3-8	106.9	103.3	105.4	105.2
Kentucky	2-6	5-6	102.8	99.0	101.6	101.1
Vanderbilt	2-5	4-7	100.5	96.4	99.9	98.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	6-1	10-1	131.7	129.4	131.8	131.0
Ole Miss	5-2	8-3	124.0	119.2	122.6	121.9
Arkansas	4-3	6-5	120.5	115.6	119.7	118.6
LSU	4-3	7-3	119.3	115.6	118.4	117.8
Mississippi St.	4-3	8-3	116.9	113.8	117.5	116.1
Texas A&M	4-3	8-3	116.9	113.7	115.4	115.3
Auburn	2-5	6-5	113.6	110.4	112.3	112.1
SEC Averages			115.3	111.5	114.5	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Southern	5-1	7-3	99.7	102.1	101.2	101.0
Appalachian St.	5-1	8-2	96.9	100.2	98.9	98.7
Arkansas St.	6-0	7-3	93.9	95.1	95.5	94.8
Troy	2-4	3-7	81.9	83.4	82.9	82.7
Georgia St.	3-3	4-6	80.5	82.0	81.5	81.3
UL-Lafayette	3-3	4-6	80.2	82.6	79.8	80.9
South Alabama	3-3	5-5	75.4	80.5	76.3	77.4
Idaho	2-5	3-8	73.8	78.8	75.0	75.9
Texas St.	2-4	3-7	74.5	77.2	74.5	75.4
New Mexico St.	3-3	3-7	73.2	75.3	73.8	74.1
UL-Monroe	0-7	1-10	70.8	69.7	70.1	70.2
Sun Belt Averages			81.9	84.3	82.7	82.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	115.3	111.5	114.5	113.8
2	Pac-12	113.2	108.6	112.4	111.4
3	Big 12	110.5	105.0	110.2	108.6
4	ACC	107.5	108.4	107.3	107.7
5	Big Ten	107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
6	Indep.	102.1	103.8	102.6	102.8
7	AAC	95.8	99.4	96.6	97.2
8	MWC	91.6	93.3	91.2	92.0
9	MAC	87.9	91.7	89.1	89.6
10	CUSA	86.1	88.1	86.3	86.8
11	SBC	81.9	84.3	82.7	82.9

 

Projected Playoff Teams

NCAA Playoffs
1	Clemson
2	Alabama
3	Iowa
4	Oklahoma

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team
1	Navy
2	Houston
3	Toledo
4	Western Kentucky
5	Air Force

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
#	Team
10	Iowa St.
9	Indiana
8	Vanderbilt
7	Wake Forest
6	Purdue
5	Syracuse
4	Maryland
3	Rutgers
2	Oregon St.
1	Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	97.5
2	North Dakota St.	91.9
3	Dartmouth	91.8
4	Harvard	91.6
5	McNeese St.	91.5
6	Illinois St.	91.0
7	Charleston Southern	90.1
8	Portland St.	89.8
9	James Madison	89.7
10	Citadel	89.6

 

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 24
Ball St.	Bowling Green	-24.1	-26.5	-26.6
Northern Illinois	Ohio	14.0	14.0	13.8
Thursday, November 26
Central Florida	South Florida	-21.6	-24.6	-22.8
Texas	Texas Tech	0.0	4.4	0.0
Friday, November 27
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	6.9	7.7	7.3
Western Kentucky	Marshall	13.5	12.7	14.3
Houston	Navy	3.2	4.5	2.9
Toledo	Western Michigan	7.2	7.7	8.0
Akron	Kent St.	9.3	2.6	10.9
Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan	22.9	21.1	25.7
Georgia St.	Troy	0.6	0.6	0.6
Arkansas	Missouri	15.3	13.9	15.5
Oregon	Oregon St.	34.4	32.5	36.7
Washington	Washington St.	4.9	5.0	4.0
Nebraska	Iowa	1.2	-2.3	0.2
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-11.5	-5.7	-10.6
Buffalo	Massachusetts	1.8	4.3	2.6
TCU	Baylor	-1.8	-5.8	-1.5
Tulane	Tulsa	-4.3	-5.7	-6.3
Saturday, November 21
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-4.3	-2.4	-4.7
Memphis	SMU	22.9	20.4	23.6
West Virginia	Iowa St.	17.4	15.6	16.3
Purdue	Indiana	-1.1	-2.0	-2.3
Rutgers	Maryland	2.5	1.3	0.7
Louisiana Tech	Southern Miss.	8.4	6.1	8.2
Michigan	Ohio St.	-5.9	-3.5	-6.2
Old Dominion	Florida Atlantic	-5.1	-4.6	-6.4
South Carolina	Clemson	-12.6	-17.2	-14.0
Virginia	Virginia Tech	-6.2	-7.2	-6.3
Georgia Tech	Georgia	-5.0	-1.9	-5.9
Kentucky	Louisville	-2.2	-7.9	-2.8
Syracuse	Boston College	-3.7	-3.6	-2.7
Wake Forest	Duke	-4.5	-1.1	-4.5
Appalachian St.	Louisiana-Lafayette	19.2	20.1	21.6
Wyoming	UNLV	-0.2	-0.7	-2.2
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	26.8	24.1	27.4
UTSA	Middle Tennessee	-13.3	-9.9	-12.5
Utah	Colorado	17.7	16.9	18.1
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	-10.4	-9.6	-12.3
Auburn	Alabama	-16.1	-17.0	-17.5
Rice	Charlotte	12.3	13.3	11.8
Michigan St.	Penn St.	13.8	11.1	13.9
Minnesota	Wisconsin	-2.3	-2.8	-1.0
North Texas	UTEP	-4.0	-3.2	-4.0
USC	UCLA	-0.3	2.0	-0.1
Northwestern (Chi.)	Illinois	0.7	3.3	2.0
Utah St.	BYU	-6.9	-6.3	-8.5
New Mexico St.	Arkansas St.	-18.2	-17.3	-19.2
Kansas	Kansas St.	-27.4	-24.3	-28.7
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	22.3	22.4	22.8
Idaho	Texas St.	1.8	4.1	3.0
Temple	Connecticut	18.3	15.3	17.7
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	-5.1	-3.4	-3.1
Stanford	Notre Dame	5.4	5.0	5.9
Florida	Florida St.	3.5	-1.1	3.9
LSU	Texas A&M	5.4	4.9	16.0
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	-8.1	-7.6	-9.2
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	-10.4	-8.0	-12.5
California	Arizona St.	3.6	3.2	3.1
New Mexico	Air Force	-5.9	-9.2	-7.3
San Diego St.	Nevada	19.5	20.3	21.5
Hawaii	Louisiana-Monroe	11.4	14.1	10.8

 

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	vs.	Washington *
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Tulsa *
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	USC	vs.	BYU
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio	vs.	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Arkansas St.
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	vs.	Boise St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Connecticut	vs.	Northern Illinois
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Air Force	vs.	Arizona St. *
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Toledo	vs.	Appalachian St.
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Southern Miss.	vs.	Bowling Green
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Houston	vs.	San Diego St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	vs.	Marshall
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Pittsburgh	vs.	Utah
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Utah St. *	vs.	Middle Tennessee
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC	Kentucky	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	California
Military	ACC	AAC	Louisville	vs.	Temple
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Central Michigan *	vs.	San Jose St. *
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Washington St. *	vs.	Colorado St.
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	Oklahoma St.
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	Old Dominion	vs.	Nevada
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	East Carolina	vs.	Auburn
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	LSU
Music City	ACC/B10	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Tennessee
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Clemson	vs.	Navy
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Alabama	vs.	North Carolina
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Oklahoma	vs.	Iowa
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	vs.	UCLA
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	Georgia
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Ohio St.	vs.	Mississippi St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan St.	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Michigan	vs.	Notre Dame
TaxSlayer	ACC/B10	SEC	North Carolina St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	Oregon
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	Arizona
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Oklahoma
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

College Football Preview: September 24-26, 2015

It was an interesting Week 3 in the college football world with Ole Miss topping off an incredible day by topping Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  Ohio State and TCU looked very beatable in narrow wins over Northern Illinois and SMU, while Georgia and Notre Dame pulled off convincing wins.

We start to ruminate about the playoff teams for this year, and you will see our first look at who we believe are the leaders in the clubhouse.  One of our readers, Gary in Toronto, has sent us a comment asking who we believe would have been the four playoff teams in recent years before the playoffs were real.  Gary, we did this one better.  We calculated who we thought would have made the playoffs all the way back to 1969, when we first began compiling ratings.

What follows is not who WE thought should have been in the playoffs; this is who we believe the COMMITTEE of the time period would have selected based on the same criteria they use today, plus our personal belief that politics do play a part.  Thus, deserving undefeated teams like Miami of Ohio and Toledo in the 1970’s, and maybe even Dartmouth in 1970 would have been excluded for one and two-loss teams from the power leagues.  For you trivia buffs, Dartmouth was actually a ranked team in 1970, the last Ivy League team to finish the season ranked in the then top 20 (Yale was the last Ivy League team to appear in the weekly rankings in 1972).

Here they are:

2013: 1-Florida St.,  2-Auburn,  3-Michigan St., 4-Alabama
2012: 1-Alabama, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Oregon, 4-Stanford
2011: 1-LSU, 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma St., 4-Oregon
2010: 1-Auburn, 2-Oregon, 3-TCU, 4-Stanford
2009: 1-Alabama, 2-Texas, 3-Florida, 4-Boise St.
2008: 1-Florida, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Utah
2007: 1-LSU, 2-Ohio St., 3-Kansas, 4-West Virginia
2006: 1-Ohio St., 2-Florida, 3-Michigan, 4-USC
2005: 1-Texas, 2-USC, 3-Penn St., 4-Virginia Tech
2004: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Auburn, 4-Utah
2003: 1-LSU, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Michigan
2002: 1-Ohio St., 2-Miami, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
2001: 1-Miami, 2-Nebraska, 3-Oregon, 4-Colorado
2000: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Florida St., 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1999: 1-Florida St., 2-Virginia Tech, 3-Nebraska, 4-Kansas St.
1998: 1-Tennessee. 2-Florida St., 3-Ohio St., 4-Kansas St.
1997: 1-Nebraska, 2-Michigan, 3-Florida St., 4-Tennessee
1996: 1-Florida St., 2-Florida, 3-Ohio St., 4-Arizona St.
1995: 1-Nebraska, 2-Florida, 3-Tennessee, 4-Ohio St.
1994: 1-Nebraska, 2-Penn St., 3-Miami, 4-Colorado
1993: 1-Florida St., 2-Notre Dame, 3-West Virginia, 4-Nebraska
1992: 1-Alabama. 2-Miami, 3-Texas A&M, 4-Florida St.
1991: 1-Miami, 2-Washington, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1990: 1: Georgia Tech, 2-Colorado, 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1989: 1-Miami, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Colorado, 4-Tennessee
1988: 1-Notre Dame, 2-West Virginia, 3-Miami, 4-Florida St.
1987: 1-Miami, 2-Oklahoma 3-Florida St., 4-Syracuse
1986: 1-Miami, 2-Penn St., 3-Oklahoma, 4-Michigan
1985: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Penn St., 3-Michigan, 4-Miami
1984: 1-BYU, 2-Washington, 3-Nebraska, 4-Boston College
1983: 1-Nebraska, 2-Texas, 3-Miami, 4-Auburn
1982: 1-Georgia, 2-Penn St., 3-Nebraska, 4-SMU
1981: 1-Clemson, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Georgia, 4-Penn St.
1980: 1-Georgia, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Notre Dame, 4-Nebraska
1979: 1-Alabama, 2-USC, 3-Ohio St., 4-Oklahoma
1978: 1-Penn St., 2-USC, 3-Alabama, 4-Oklahoma
1977: 1-Texas, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1976: 1-Pittsburgh, 2-Michigan, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
1975: 1-Ohio St., 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma, 4-Arizona St.
1974: 1-Alabama, 2-Ohio St., 3-USC, 4-Michigan
1973: 1-Notre Dame, 2-Alabama, 3-Penn St., 4-Ohio St.
1972: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Texas, 4-Michigan
1971: 1-Nebraska, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1970: 1-Texas, 2-Nebraska, 3-Tennessee, 4-Notre Dame
1969: 1-Texas, 2-Penn St., 3-USC, 4-Missouri

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	133.4	124.0	134.3	130.6
2	Ole Miss	130.2	123.8	128.8	127.6
3	LSU	125.8	121.8	125.6	124.4
4	TCU	127.4	117.2	128.5	124.4
5	Alabama	125.0	123.3	124.6	124.3
6	Baylor	123.7	119.8	124.2	122.6
7	Notre Dame	123.4	119.4	123.9	122.2
8	Georgia	124.4	116.8	123.7	121.6
9	USC	121.5	118.2	121.9	120.5
10	Oklahoma	121.1	118.4	121.4	120.3
11	Georgia Tech	123.0	115.0	122.6	120.2
12	Oregon	122.8	114.8	122.2	119.9
13	UCLA	122.6	116.1	120.5	119.7
14	Texas A&M	120.4	118.6	119.4	119.5
15	Michigan St.	121.2	115.3	121.1	119.2
16	Tennessee	120.6	116.4	120.4	119.1
17	Stanford	118.4	117.2	118.6	118.1
18	California	118.1	113.1	118.6	116.6
19	Auburn	116.9	114.9	115.9	115.9
20	Clemson	115.3	116.5	115.2	115.7
21	Utah	117.8	112.1	117.0	115.6
22	Arkansas	117.4	111.1	116.3	114.9
23	Florida St.	114.9	115.3	113.6	114.6
24	Virginia Tech	115.4	111.8	115.8	114.3
25	North Carolina	113.7	113.7	113.3	113.6
26	West Virginia	115.0	109.6	114.4	113.0
27	Oklahoma St.	112.0	112.6	112.7	112.4
28	Arizona St.	114.7	109.4	113.2	112.4
29	Arizona	114.9	107.8	113.0	111.9
30	Mississippi St.	113.4	108.9	113.4	111.9
31	Michigan	112.8	108.9	112.1	111.3
32	Wisconsin	111.2	112.0	110.2	111.1
33	Florida	111.8	108.4	111.2	110.5
34	Missouri	111.4	108.5	110.5	110.1
35	Boise St.	112.2	106.7	111.5	110.1
36	Nebraska	110.9	108.3	110.5	109.9
37	North Carolina St.	109.3	111.4	108.3	109.7
38	Miami	109.0	109.9	109.4	109.4
39	BYU	108.9	107.0	110.3	108.7
40	Minnesota	109.3	107.5	109.1	108.6
41	Temple	107.2	109.4	108.5	108.4
42	Louisville	107.2	109.8	107.4	108.1
43	Texas Tech	111.0	101.6	110.8	107.8
44	Northwestern	106.8	107.8	106.8	107.1
45	Penn St.	105.7	107.8	105.9	106.5
46	Texas	107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
47	Illinois	107.2	104.8	106.2	106.1
48	Memphis	105.2	105.1	106.7	105.7
49	South Carolina	107.3	103.6	105.8	105.6
50	Kentucky	106.3	102.9	105.6	104.9
51	Pittsburgh	103.7	105.8	104.9	104.8
52	Kansas St.	109.6	96.3	108.2	104.7
53	Colorado	105.8	101.5	105.1	104.1
54	Washington	103.7	101.9	104.1	103.2
55	Iowa	101.8	104.7	102.5	103.0
56	Duke	102.4	103.0	103.0	102.8
57	Cincinnati	101.8	102.9	102.8	102.5
58	Boston College	101.2	106.1	99.5	102.3
59	Virginia	103.0	100.1	102.5	101.9
60	Houston	97.7	105.8	100.4	101.3
61	Western Kentucky	100.9	98.5	102.0	100.5
62	Louisiana Tech	101.3	98.2	102.1	100.5
63	Navy	98.3	101.4	98.8	99.5
64	Toledo	99.7	97.7	100.6	99.3
65	Middle Tennessee	98.3	98.0	98.0	98.1
66	Purdue	98.8	98.2	96.8	97.9
67	Bowling Green	95.3	99.8	97.4	97.5
68	Wake Forest	95.5	100.2	94.5	96.7
69	Air Force	94.7	99.9	94.5	96.4
70	Rutgers	98.0	94.9	96.1	96.3
71	Washington St.	98.5	93.3	96.7	96.2
72	Marshall	95.8	95.6	96.4	95.9
73	Vanderbilt	98.2	92.2	97.1	95.8
74	San Diego St.	93.7	98.9	94.7	95.8
75	Syracuse	94.4	98.7	93.8	95.6
76	Georgia Southern	94.5	96.6	95.0	95.4
77	Utah St.	95.9	94.4	96.0	95.4
78	Indiana	94.8	96.4	94.6	95.3
79	Northern Illinois	94.2	96.8	94.6	95.2
80	Western Michigan	94.6	95.1	95.5	95.1
81	Colorado St.	96.3	93.8	94.8	95.0
82	Maryland	95.3	93.0	94.2	94.2
83	Iowa St.	95.7	92.4	94.6	94.2
84	Tulsa	91.5	97.4	92.9	93.9
85	Ohio	91.5	96.4	93.2	93.7
86	Appalachian St.	92.0	95.0	94.1	93.7
87	Hawaii	91.8	94.0	92.4	92.7
88	Nevada	91.4	95.3	90.9	92.5
89	Oregon St.	92.8	91.1	91.7	91.9
90	East Carolina	90.0	94.5	90.1	91.5
91	Central Florida	89.4	93.2	90.8	91.1
92	Florida International	89.3	92.1	91.2	90.9
93	San Jose St.	90.2	92.9	89.5	90.9
94	Arkansas St.	90.5	90.3	91.5	90.8
95	New Mexico	90.6	91.4	90.0	90.7
96	Fresno St.	88.1	95.1	87.4	90.2
97	South Florida	88.1	94.9	87.5	90.2
98	Rice	87.8	92.6	88.6	89.7
99	SMU	88.1	92.0	88.2	89.4
100	Massachusetts	87.5	91.1	89.1	89.2
101	Tulane	87.9	90.3	86.0	88.1
102	Buffalo	83.8	91.3	86.4	87.2
103	UL-Lafayette	85.3	89.4	85.7	86.8
104	Southern Mississippi	86.5	87.0	85.5	86.3
105	Ball St.	84.9	87.8	85.8	86.2
106	Akron	83.0	89.5	84.4	85.6
107	Central Michigan	83.0	88.9	84.9	85.6
108	Texas St.	83.8	87.6	83.5	85.0
109	Kent St.	83.2	86.0	83.9	84.4
110	Connecticut	81.8	87.9	82.0	83.9
111	Florida Atlantic	82.0	86.2	82.6	83.6
112	Old Dominion	80.7	88.0	79.8	82.8
113	UTEP	81.8	84.8	81.6	82.7
114	North Texas	79.9	86.4	80.4	82.2
115	South Alabama	77.9	85.7	79.7	81.1
116	Army	76.9	87.6	78.2	80.9
117	UL-Monroe	81.7	78.3	81.0	80.3
118	UNLV	79.2	81.6	79.9	80.2
119	Miami (O)	76.6	83.0	76.7	78.8
120	UT-San Antonio	77.2	80.7	78.3	78.7
121	Eastern Michigan	75.0	84.9	75.0	78.3
122	Wyoming	78.0	80.0	76.2	78.1
123	Kansas	78.9	72.6	76.6	76.0
124	Troy	75.3	75.0	77.0	75.8
125	Georgia St.	75.7	74.5	75.4	75.2
126	New Mexico St.	73.6	74.8	73.5	74.0
127	Idaho	70.6	79.1	72.1	73.9
128	Charlotte	69.0	71.0	68.5	69.5

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	1-0	3-0	107.2	109.4	108.5	108.4
Cincinnati	0-1	2-1	101.8	102.9	102.8	102.5
East Carolina	0-1	1-2	90.0	94.5	90.1	91.5
Central Florida	0-0	0-3	89.4	93.2	90.8	91.1
South Florida	0-0	1-2	88.1	94.9	87.5	90.2
Connecticut	0-0	2-1	81.8	87.9	82.0	83.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	3-0	105.2	105.1	106.7	105.7
Houston	0-0	2-0	97.7	105.8	100.4	101.3
Navy	1-0	2-0	98.3	101.4	98.8	99.5
Tulsa	0-0	2-1	91.5	97.4	92.9	93.9
SMU	0-0	1-2	88.1	92.0	88.2	89.4
Tulane	0-0	1-2	87.9	90.3	86.0	88.1
AAC Averages			93.9	97.9	94.6	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	1-0	3-0	115.3	116.5	115.2	115.7
Florida St.	1-0	3-0	114.9	115.3	113.6	114.6
North Carolina St.	0-0	3-0	109.3	111.4	108.3	109.7
Louisville	0-1	0-3	107.2	109.8	107.4	108.1
Boston College	0-1	2-1	101.2	106.1	99.5	102.3
Wake Forest	0-1	2-1	95.5	100.2	94.5	96.7
Syracuse	1-0	3-0	94.4	98.7	93.8	95.6
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Tech	0-0	2-1	123.0	115.0	122.6	120.2
Virginia Tech	0-0	2-1	115.4	111.8	115.8	114.3
North Carolina	0-0	2-1	113.7	113.7	113.3	113.6
Miami	0-0	3-0	109.0	109.9	109.4	109.4
Pittsburgh	0-0	2-1	103.7	105.8	104.9	104.8
Duke	0-0	2-1	102.4	103.0	103.0	102.8
Virginia	0-0	1-2	103.0	100.1	102.5	101.9
ACC Averages			107.7	108.4	107.4	107.8
Big 12 Conference
	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
TCU	0-0	3-0	127.4	117.2	128.5	124.4
Baylor	0-0	2-0	123.7	119.8	124.2	122.6
Oklahoma	0-0	3-0	121.1	118.4	121.4	120.3
West Virginia	0-0	2-0	115.0	109.6	114.4	113.0
Oklahoma St.	0-0	3-0	112.0	112.6	112.7	112.4
Texas	0-0	1-2	107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
Texas Tech	0-0	3-0	111.0	101.6	110.8	107.8
Kansas St.	0-0	3-0	109.6	96.3	108.2	104.7
Iowa St.	0-0	1-2	95.7	92.4	94.6	94.2
Kansas	0-0	0-2	78.9	72.6	76.6	76.0
Big 12 Averages			110.2	104.6	109.8	108.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	0-0	3-0	133.4	124.0	134.3	130.6
Michigan St.	0-0	3-0	121.2	115.3	121.1	119.2
Michigan	0-0	2-1	112.8	108.9	112.1	111.3
Penn St.	1-0	2-1	105.7	107.8	105.9	106.5
Rutgers	0-1	1-2	98.0	94.9	96.1	96.3
Indiana	0-0	3-0	94.8	96.4	94.6	95.3
Maryland	0-0	2-1	95.3	93.0	94.2	94.2
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	2-1	111.2	112.0	110.2	111.1
Nebraska	0-0	1-2	110.9	108.3	110.5	109.9
Minnesota	0-0	2-1	109.3	107.5	109.1	108.6
Northwestern	0-0	3-0	106.8	107.8	106.8	107.1
Illinois	0-0	2-1	107.2	104.8	106.2	106.1
Iowa	0-0	3-0	101.8	104.7	102.5	103.0
Purdue	0-0	1-2	98.8	98.2	96.8	97.9
Big Ten Averages			107.7	106.0	107.2	106.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	1-0	2-1	100.9	98.5	102.0	100.5
Middle Tennessee	1-0	2-1	98.3	98.0	98.0	98.1
Marshall	0-0	2-1	95.8	95.6	96.4	95.9
Florida International	0-0	2-1	89.3	92.1	91.2	90.9
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-3	82.0	86.2	82.6	83.6
Old Dominion	0-0	2-1	80.7	88.0	79.8	82.8
Charlotte	0-1	2-1	69.0	71.0	68.5	69.5
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	0-1	1-2	101.3	98.2	102.1	100.5
Rice	1-0	2-1	87.8	92.6	88.6	89.7
Southern Mississippi	0-0	2-1	86.5	87.0	85.5	86.3
UTEP	0-0	1-2	81.8	84.8	81.6	82.7
North Texas	0-1	0-2	79.9	86.4	80.4	82.2
UT-San Antonio	0-0	0-3	77.2	80.7	78.3	78.7
CUSA Averages			87.0	89.2	87.3	87.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		3-0	123.4	119.4	123.9	122.2
BYU		2-1	108.9	107.0	110.3	108.7
Army		0-3	76.9	87.6	78.2	80.9
Independents Averages			103.1	104.7	104.1	104.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	0-0	1-2	95.3	99.8	97.4	97.5
Ohio	0-0	3-0	91.5	96.4	93.2	93.7
Massachusetts	0-0	0-2	87.5	91.1	89.1	89.2
Buffalo	0-0	2-1	83.8	91.3	86.4	87.2
Akron	0-0	1-2	83.0	89.5	84.4	85.6
Kent St.	0-0	1-2	83.2	86.0	83.9	84.4
Miami (O)	0-0	1-2	76.6	83.0	76.7	78.8
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	0-0	2-0	99.7	97.7	100.6	99.3
Northern Illinois	0-0	2-1	94.2	96.8	94.6	95.2
Western Michigan	0-0	1-2	94.6	95.1	95.5	95.1
Ball St.	1-0	2-1	84.9	87.8	85.8	86.2
Central Michigan	0-0	1-2	83.0	88.9	84.9	85.6