The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 22, 2017

2017 Pac-12 Preview

The Pac-12 has not had a member win the National Championship in quite some time. Washington and Oregon made trips to the Playoffs in recent years, but they came up short. USC won multiple national titles earlier in this century, and Washington shared one with Miami back in 1991, but this once toughest conference has come up short ever since Vince Young scored the winning touchdown for Texas against USC in 2005.

The Trojans might have won an additional national title in this century had the four team playoffs been in existence in 2002. While unbeated Ohio State and unbeaten Miami played a memorable championship game, it was USC that was clearly the best team in the nation at the end of the year. The Trojans went 11-2, and 12 of the 13 teams on their schedule went to bowls. The Tojans split the title with LSU in 2003 and won the title outright in 2004. They went 38-2 in a three-year period losing only to Young and Texas and Aaron Rodgers and Cal. Since that time, 11 of the last 12 national champions have come from South of the Mason-Dixon Line. Can this be the year the Pac-12 breaks through with another national champion?

USC and Washington both appear to be contenders for playoff bid during the preseason. In today’s college football world, the quarterback is just as vital as the position in the NFL. The Trojans and Huskies both have top 5 signal callers directing their attacks. Sam Darnold took over a 1-3 Trojan team and guided USC to nine consecutive victories. Washington’s Jake Browning led the Huskies to the Playoff semi-finals, before UW bowed out against Alabama.

There are three other teams with the type of quality QB that can lead a school to a conference championship. Washington State’s Luke Falk is now a senior, and when QB’s under Mike Leach’s tutelage reach their fourth year in the program, they tend to lead the conference and the nation in total offense. Look for WSU to continue to advance forward from the surprise 2016 season.

Josh Rosen leads the UCLA offense, but like so many past Bruin quarterbacks, injuries have sort of derailed his career. A healthy Rosen is capable of leading the Bruins to a record reversal or better in Westwood. A 4- 8 disappointment in 2016, led Coach Jim Mora, Jr. to overhaul his assistant coaching corps.

Oregon is another team that disappointed in 2016. It cost Mark Helfrich his job. Enter new coach Willie Taggart, who turned around programs at Western Kentucky and South Florida. At his two prior stops, Taggart’s first editions have taken their lumps learning to play his style of ball, but he did not have a quarterback with the talent of Justin Herbert at either past school. Look for the Ducks to turn things around quickly and become bowl-eligible again this season. Give Taggart three years, and Oregon will be challenging for the Pac-12 North title again.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media voted in the preseason.

 

Pac-12 North Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Washington 49 309 22
2 Stanford 1 247 0
3 Washington St. 1 206 0
4 Oregon 1 163 1
5 Oregon St. 0 101 0
6 California 0 64 0
         
Pac-12 South Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 USC 49 309 28
2 Utah 1 220 1
3 UCLA 1 209 0
4 Colorado 1 182 0
5 Arizona St. 0 109 0
6 Arizona 0 61 0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings agree on the division leaders, but our ratings show a different order to start the season. Bear in mind that our ratings factor depth and other factors that could help a team improve (or decline) in the ratings more than another team with the same results, based on this factor. USC is one of those teams that has a chance to improve more than average, so by late November, the Trojans could be rated higher than Washington, even if both teams go 11-1 and face off in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4
Colorado 114.1 111.5 111.8 112.4
U C L A 108.6 107.7 108.0 108.1
Utah 105.4 108.1 105.6 106.4
Arizona St. 103.7 103.7 102.5 103.3
Arizona 98.3 97.1 95.9 97.1
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.7 109.1 109.8 109.9

And, here are our not-so-scientific predictions for won-loss and bowl projections.

Pac-12 Conference Projected Standings
North Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Washington 9-0 12-1 Fiesta
Washington St. 7-2 10-2 Alamo
Stanford 6-3 9-3 Holiday
Oregon 5-4 8-4 Foster Farms
Oregon St. 2-7 4-8  
California 1-8 2-10  
       
South Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
USC 7-2 11-2 PLAYOFFS
Utah 5-4 8-4 Sun
UCLA 5-4 7-5 Las Vegas
Colorado 4-5 7-5 Cactus
Arizona St. 1-8 3-9  
Arizona 1-8 3-9  
       
USC to win Pac-12 Championship Game

Coming Tomorrow: The Atlantic Coast Conference–Does Florida State deserve its lofty preseason rating? How much will Clemson suffer without Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, and Wayne Gallman? Can Louisville challenge the two behemoths? Is there a dark horse team lurking, maybe North Carolina State? In the Coastal, can any team finish better than 6-2 in league play, or will there be a major logjam with four or five teams contending for the division flag?

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November 13, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 15-19, 2016

After one of the most contentious elections in over 100 years, the college football world decided to make Tuesday’s vote of the College Football Playoff Committee just as controversial before it can be released.

Truth be told, there only needs to be two playoff bids issued this year. The first one should go to Alabama as the number one seed, and the second one should go to the College All-Star Team as the number two seed. This Crimson Tide team has the look of one of John Wooden’s UCLA basketball teams during the Alcindor-Walton years. Coach Nick Saban’s team has pulled away from the pack now that Clemson, Michigan, and Washington fell Saturday.

There is still a lot to be decided, and there are some interesting scenarios left before four teams can earn golden tickets in December. Let’s take a look at each conference.

American Athletic
Temple and South Florida are tied for first in the East at 5-1 with Central Florida a game back at 4-2. Temple has the inside track to take the divisional crown, as the Owls have a road game against Tulane and a home game with East Carolina left on their schedule and hold the tiebreaker over the both contenders.

Navy leads the West and must lose to both East Carolina and SMU in order for either Houston or Tulsa to win the division. Memphis and Tulsa have such slim chances of winning the division in a multiple tie that it is not worth mentioning all the possibilities that must happen to make it real.

Atlantic Coast
Clemson’s loss to Pittsburgh is not enough to push Louisville over the top in the Atlantic Division. The Cardinals need for Wake Forest to upset the Tigers this weekend, and that is not likely to happen. Louisville could profit off a Clemson loss in the ACC Championship Game. If the Cardinals win out and CU loses again, UL could move into the playoffs without appearing in a championship game.

The Coastal Division did not change even though the two co-leaders were both upset. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are tied at 5-2. If the two stay tied at either 6-2 or 5-3, then the Hokies win the tiebreaker. Pittsburgh and Miami can both get to 5-3, but Virginia Tech wins any and all tiebreakers against any possible 5-3 opponent.

Big 12
Oklahoma leads at 7-0, but Oklahoma State and West Virginia both have just one conference loss and are still alive in the conference championship race. The Sooners close with West Virginia in Morgantown and Oklahoma State in Norman.

The three teams cannot finished tied at 8-1, because with the Sooners playing both one-loss teams, one of the three teams must lose a second conference game. There is a scenario where all three teams could finish tied with two losses, but it is not all that likely. If Oklahoma loses to both contenders to drop to 7-2, and if Oklahoma State loses at TCU this weekend, while West Virginia loses at Iowa State, then OSU will be the Big 12 Champion.

Big Ten
Oh, did this past weekend really throw a monkey wrench into the workings. With Iowa beating Michigan, it opened up the possibility that Penn State could sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game as East Division champ. If the Nittany Lions win out against Rutgers and Michigan State, and if Ohio State beats Michigan, then Coach James Franklin will lead Penn State to Indianapolis on December 3. Whether Ohio State can win out to finish 11-1, miss the conference title game, and still get a bid to the Playoffs is unsure.

In the West, there are even more possible scenarios than in the East. Wisconsin is the only divisionteam that controls its own destiny. If the Badgers beat Purdue and Minnesota , they go to Indy. If UW loses a game, and Nebraska beats Maryland and Iowa, the Cornhuskers take the flag. Then, there is the possibility that if both Wisconsin and Nebraska lose, there are scenarios where Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern could make it to the Championship Game.

Conference USA
The two division races are basically decided after the two division leaders won on Saturday. Western Kentucky has one game left at Marshall on November 26. If the 6-1 Hilltoppers win that game, they are East Champs. If WKU falls in Huntington, then Old Dominion can win the division title by closing with wins over Florida Atlantic and Florida International.

Louisiana Tech clinched the West with their win over UTSA Saturday. The Bulldogs have won seven games in a row after starting the year at 1-3, including pinning the lone conference loss on WKU.

Mid-American
You probably haven’t followed the race in the MAC East much this year, because the other division has gotten all the headlines. However, one of the wackiest ever races in the history of college football could be taking place on this side of the league. There is a chance that a team that began the year losing its first six games, including a home loss to Eastern Illinois, could find itself in the MAC Championship Game! Miami of Ohio was 0-6 after losing big at Akron in early October. Since then, the Redhawks have reeled off five consecutive wins and will become bowl eligible if they beat Ball State a week from Tuesday.

Ohio has the inside advantage to winning the East Division, but should the Bobcats end the year by losing at Central Michigan (who needs to win to become bowl eligible) and at home to Akron (who will need to win to become bowl eligible), then Miami will earn the right to play the behemoth in the other division.

That behemoth is Western Michigan, the number 14 team in this week’s AP Poll and current leader of the pack among the Group of 5 leagues for the Cotton Bowl bid. Before we annoint the Broncos into the Dallas classic, they must beat Toledo on Black Friday and then win the MAC Championship Game. If Toledo wins out over Ball State and WMU, then the Rockets will play in the conference title game.

Mountain West
The Mountain Division race became a bit cloudier after Wyoming lost at UNLV on Saturday. There is now a three-way tie with the Cowboys, New Mexico, and Boise State. At the moment, Boise has the clearest path to the division flag, but they must still play at Air Force. The other two contenders have tough closing schedules, as Wyoming closes with San Diego State and New Mexico, and the Lobos play at Colorado State before hosting the Cowboys. In the event there is a tie, Wyoming owns the tiebreaker over Boise State, and Boise State owns the tiebreaker over New Mexico. If the three teams finished tied with 6-2 records, it will depend on whether Wyoming’s second loss was to San Diego State or New Mexico that determines who gets the nod.

There is no trouble about the West Division race. SDSU wrapped it up about the time the Cubs won the World Series. The Aztecs will be the only division team to become bowl eligible, unless UNLV can upset Boise State and beat Nevada.

Pac-12
There is very little chance that a Pac-12 team will make the Playoffs this year after Washington fell to USC. The contending teams are now playing for a trip to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl.

In the North, it is now Washington State in the lead, but that lead could be short-lived. After winning eight consecutive games for the first time since 1930, the Cougars close with games at Colorado and at home against Washington. The game in Boulder is now the tougher game of the two, as we believe Coach Mike Leach’s club will top the Huskies in the Apple Cup game at beautiful Martin Stadium. Washington can still win the division flag by winning in the Palouse on Black Friday.

Colorado has a half-game lead over USC in the South, but the Trojans hold the tiebreaker over the Buffs should the two teams tie. CU closes with home games against WSU and Utah, and Coach Mike MacIntyre would have to become one of the leading candidates for National Coach of the Year, should CU win both of these games and claim the South crown after being picked last in the preseason.

Don’t forget Utah just yet. The Utes are a game back at 5-2 and host Oregon before heading to Boulder a week later. If Utah beats the Ducks and then knocks off CU, the Utes would own the tiebreaker over a 7-2 CU and 7-2 USC.

USC can win the South by beating UCLA this week and then hoping that both CU and Utah lose a game. One of the other two must lose because they face off, but the winner of that game will have to lose this week as well.

Southeastern
The only race is in the East, and it is now a two-team race between Florida and Tennessee. If the Gators beat LSU this weekend, they are in the SEC Championship Game for a second consecutive year. If LSU wins, and then Tennessee beats Missouri and Vanderbilt, the Vols will head to the Championship Game.

Alabama has already wrapped up the SEC West, and if they win out, they will be the heaviest favorite in the three-year existence of the Playoffs. A 15-0 Crimson Tide National Champion would have to rank up there with Miami of 2001, Nebraska of 1971 and 1995, USC of 1932 and 1972, and Army of 1944 and 1945 as the best team of all time.

Sunbelt
If you think Louisville deserves a shot at the College Football Playoffs with an 11-1 record and the lone loss at Clemson in a game that went to the final minute, then what about Troy? Troy could also finish 11-1 with its lone loss at Clemson in a game that came down to the final minute. The Trojans debuted in the AP Top 25 this week, but don’t expect this team to make it to an New Year’s 6 Bowl game, even if they win out. Western Michigan, San Diego State, and Boise State must all lose a game before Troy has a chance, and if Houston beats Louisville, the Cougars will top the Trojans as well.

Troy still has three games left on its schedule, and one of those three is a home game Thursday night against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are still undefeated in conference play, so the conference championship will be up for grabs this week.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.0 131.4 138.1 135.8
2 Ohio St. 128.9 128.3 129.5 128.9
3 Michigan 129.2 126.9 129.2 128.4
4 Louisville 129.4 125.0 129.6 128.0
5 Washington 128.0 121.0 127.4 125.5
6 Clemson 127.4 120.7 126.3 124.8
7 LSU 126.3 121.2 125.9 124.5
8 Oklahoma 121.1 119.6 120.8 120.5
9 USC 122.4 117.4 120.7 120.2
10 Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
11 Wisconsin 119.3 116.8 120.0 118.7
12 Florida St. 120.2 114.1 119.5 117.9
13 Washington St. 118.5 115.2 118.3 117.4
14 Colorado 117.8 113.5 117.7 116.4
15 North Carolina 118.2 112.5 118.1 116.3
16 Miami 118.1 112.5 117.8 116.1
17 Virginia Tech 115.9 114.6 115.9 115.5
18 Penn St. 115.0 115.9 114.8 115.2
19 Oklahoma St. 114.8 115.8 114.2 114.9
20 Texas A&M 115.6 113.7 115.0 114.8
21 Tennessee 115.7 113.2 114.8 114.6
22 Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
23 Pittsburgh 115.0 110.9 114.2 113.4
24 Western Michigan 112.7 112.3 114.3 113.1
25 Florida 112.2 113.7 110.5 112.1
26 Utah 114.1 108.8 112.7 111.9
27 West Virginia 112.1 111.5 111.7 111.8
28 Notre Dame 112.8 109.9 111.9 111.5
29 Ole Miss 112.6 108.6 111.4 110.9
30 TCU 110.6 112.1 109.7 110.8
31 Iowa 111.6 109.2 111.3 110.7
32 Texas 110.0 111.0 109.2 110.1
33 San Diego St. 109.7 108.2 111.8 109.9
34 South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
35 Georgia 109.8 108.9 109.1 109.3
36 Northwestern 110.8 107.0 109.9 109.2
37 Arkansas 111.2 106.8 109.5 109.2
38 UCLA 110.0 108.3 109.3 109.2
39 BYU 110.6 105.3 110.5 108.8
40 Baylor 108.4 109.0 108.7 108.7
41 Georgia Tech 109.9 105.9 108.9 108.2
42 Nebraska 109.1 106.5 108.8 108.1
43 Houston 107.9 107.1 109.1 108.0
44 Kansas St. 106.9 109.1 106.8 107.6
45 Temple 107.2 106.4 107.7 107.1
46 Boise St. 106.1 107.0 107.0 106.7
47 Mississippi St. 107.5 105.7 106.5 106.6
48 Western Kentucky 106.7 104.5 108.0 106.4
49 North Carolina St. 106.6 103.5 106.4 105.5
50 Michigan St. 105.9 105.0 104.3 105.1
51 Minnesota 105.5 104.3 105.0 104.9
52 Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.8 104.8
53 Texas Tech 105.3 104.6 104.2 104.7
54 Toledo 103.2 103.7 104.2 103.7
55 Duke 103.9 103.1 103.5 103.5
56 Navy 103.7 102.1 103.6 103.2
57 Memphis 103.9 102.1 102.8 103.0
58 Oregon 103.7 102.2 102.6 102.8
59 Indiana 102.5 104.1 101.9 102.8
60 Wake Forest 102.2 100.6 102.6 101.8
61 Virginia 102.8 100.1 102.0 101.6
62 Arizona St. 102.4 101.1 100.8 101.5
63 Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
64 Vanderbilt 101.8 98.9 100.5 100.4
65 South Carolina 100.4 100.1 100.1 100.2
66 Appalachian St. 99.3 100.3 101.0 100.2
67 Louisiana Tech 98.7 100.7 100.7 100.0
68 Central Florida 99.1 100.2 100.0 99.8
69 Syracuse 99.9 96.8 98.1 98.3
70 Iowa St. 98.6 98.4 97.8 98.3
71 Missouri 98.7 97.9 98.1 98.3
72 California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
73 Air Force 96.5 98.3 96.8 97.2
74 Troy 94.1 98.2 96.2 96.2
75 Maryland 95.9 98.4 94.1 96.1
76 New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
77 SMU 95.0 94.5 97.1 95.6
78 Northern Illinois 94.7 96.0 95.8 95.5
79 Oregon St. 97.3 92.8 96.0 95.4
80 Boston College 95.9 94.6 95.0 95.2
81 Wyoming 94.1 94.4 94.9 94.5
82 Ohio 92.0 97.7 92.8 94.2
83 Central Michigan 93.0 94.9 93.3 93.7
84 Arizona 94.8 92.5 93.2 93.5
85 Colorado St. 92.6 94.3 93.6 93.5
86 Cincinnati 93.1 93.5 92.7 93.1
87 Arkansas St. 91.3 93.6 93.0 92.6
88 Illinois 93.0 90.0 92.0 91.7
89 Army 88.8 95.2 90.0 91.3
90 East Carolina 90.0 91.6 90.2 90.6
91 Miami (O) 89.6 91.1 91.1 90.6
92 Connecticut 90.8 89.8 90.3 90.3
93 Old Dominion 88.7 91.7 89.7 90.0
94 Purdue 90.5 89.0 89.1 89.5
95 Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
96 Middle Tennessee 88.6 90.1 88.9 89.2
97 Kent St. 87.9 89.4 88.8 88.7
98 Georgia Southern 87.1 87.7 88.8 87.9
99 UTSA 84.9 91.2 87.2 87.8
100 Eastern Michigan 86.7 88.8 87.2 87.6
101 Rutgers 88.7 86.6 87.3 87.6
102 Southern Mississippi 87.1 87.5 87.2 87.3
103 UNLV 85.8 88.6 86.2 86.9
104 Tulane 84.7 88.5 85.5 86.2
105 Idaho 83.3 88.3 85.3 85.6
106 Nevada 84.5 86.7 85.1 85.5
107 Ball St. 84.0 86.3 84.8 85.0
108 Marshall 83.2 86.6 84.0 84.6
109 South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
110 Kansas 83.5 88.1 81.2 84.3
111 San Jose St. 84.0 84.0 83.7 83.9
112 Akron 81.2 86.4 82.0 83.2
113 Bowling Green 82.8 83.6 83.1 83.2
114 Massachusetts 80.2 86.5 81.3 82.7
115 UL-Lafayette 79.5 84.3 81.1 81.7
116 Florida International 79.6 84.0 80.0 81.2
117 North Texas 79.9 82.9 80.3 81.1
118 Hawaii 80.8 80.3 80.5 80.5
119 Georgia St. 78.0 82.6 79.8 80.1
120 Charlotte 76.7 82.3 77.3 78.8
121 Fresno St. 77.3 80.8 77.0 78.4
122 Florida Atlantic 75.7 80.4 78.3 78.1
123 Buffalo 75.8 82.2 76.3 78.1
124 Rice 75.3 81.9 75.6 77.6
125 UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.8 74.4
126 New Mexico St. 71.8 74.7 72.8 73.1
127 UL-Monroe 70.2 75.4 71.0 72.2
128 Texas St. 65.9 68.4 66.8 67.0

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
Temple 107.2 106.4 107.7 107.1
Central Florida 99.1 100.2 100.0 99.8
Cincinnati 93.1 93.5 92.7 93.1
East Carolina 90.0 91.6 90.2 90.6
Connecticut 90.8 89.8 90.3 90.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 107.9 107.1 109.1 108.0
Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.8 104.8
Navy 103.7 102.1 103.6 103.2
Memphis 103.9 102.1 102.8 103.0
SMU 95.0 94.5 97.1 95.6
Tulane 84.7 88.5 85.5 86.2
         
AAC Averages 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.3
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 129.4 125.0 129.6 128.0
Clemson 127.4 120.7 126.3 124.8
Florida St. 120.2 114.1 119.5 117.9
North Carolina St. 106.6 103.5 106.4 105.5
Wake Forest 102.2 100.6 102.6 101.8
Syracuse 99.9 96.8 98.1 98.3
Boston College 95.9 94.6 95.0 95.2
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 118.2 112.5 118.1 116.3
Miami 118.1 112.5 117.8 116.1
Virginia Tech 115.9 114.6 115.9 115.5
Pittsburgh 115.0 110.9 114.2 113.4
Georgia Tech 109.9 105.9 108.9 108.2
Duke 103.9 103.1 103.5 103.5
Virginia 102.8 100.1 102.0 101.6
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.2 111.3 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 121.1 119.6 120.8 120.5
Oklahoma St. 114.8 115.8 114.2 114.9
West Virginia 112.1 111.5 111.7 111.8
TCU 110.6 112.1 109.7 110.8
Texas 110.0 111.0 109.2 110.1
Baylor 108.4 109.0 108.7 108.7
Kansas St. 106.9 109.1 106.8 107.6
Texas Tech 105.3 104.6 104.2 104.7
Iowa St. 98.6 98.4 97.8 98.3
Kansas 83.5 88.1 81.2 84.3
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.2
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 128.9 128.3 129.5 128.9
Michigan 129.2 126.9 129.2 128.4
Penn St. 115.0 115.9 114.8 115.2
Michigan St. 105.9 105.0 104.3 105.1
Indiana 102.5 104.1 101.9 102.8
Maryland 95.9 98.4 94.1 96.1
Rutgers 88.7 86.6 87.3 87.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 119.3 116.8 120.0 118.7
Iowa 111.6 109.2 111.3 110.7
Northwestern 110.8 107.0 109.9 109.2
Nebraska 109.1 106.5 108.8 108.1
Minnesota 105.5 104.3 105.0 104.9
Illinois 93.0 90.0 92.0 91.7
Purdue 90.5 89.0 89.1 89.5
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.3 106.9 106.9
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 106.7 104.5 108.0 106.4
Old Dominion 88.7 91.7 89.7 90.0
Middle Tennessee 88.6 90.1 88.9 89.2
Marshall 83.2 86.6 84.0 84.6
Florida International 79.6 84.0 80.0 81.2
Charlotte 76.7 82.3 77.3 78.8
Florida Atlantic 75.7 80.4 78.3 78.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 98.7 100.7 100.7 100.0
UTSA 84.9 91.2 87.2 87.8
Southern Mississippi 87.1 87.5 87.2 87.3
North Texas 79.9 82.9 80.3 81.1
Rice 75.3 81.9 75.6 77.6
UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.8 74.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.4 87.8 85.5 85.9
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.8 109.9 111.9 111.5
BYU 110.6 105.3 110.5 108.8
Army 88.8 95.2 90.0 91.3
Massachusetts 80.2 86.5 81.3 82.7
         
Independents Averages 98.1 99.2 98.4 98.6
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 92.0 97.7 92.8 94.2
Miami (O) 89.6 91.1 91.1 90.6
Kent St. 87.9 89.4 88.8 88.7
Akron 81.2 86.4 82.0 83.2
Bowling Green 82.8 83.6 83.1 83.2
Buffalo 75.8 82.2 76.3 78.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 112.7 112.3 114.3 113.1
Toledo 103.2 103.7 104.2 103.7
Northern Illinois 94.7 96.0 95.8 95.5
Central Michigan 93.0 94.9 93.3 93.7
Eastern Michigan 86.7 88.8 87.2 87.6
Ball St. 84.0 86.3 84.8 85.0
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.7 91.1 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 106.1 107.0 107.0 106.7
Air Force 96.5 98.3 96.8 97.2
New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
Wyoming 94.1 94.4 94.9 94.5
Colorado St. 92.6 94.3 93.6 93.5
Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 109.7 108.2 111.8 109.9
UNLV 85.8 88.6 86.2 86.9
Nevada 84.5 86.7 85.1 85.5
San Jose St. 84.0 84.0 83.7 83.9
Hawaii 80.8 80.3 80.5 80.5
Fresno St. 77.3 80.8 77.0 78.4
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 128.0 121.0 127.4 125.5
Washington St. 118.5 115.2 118.3 117.4
Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
Oregon 103.7 102.2 102.6 102.8
California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
Oregon St. 97.3 92.8 96.0 95.4
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 122.4 117.4 120.7 120.2
Colorado 117.8 113.5 117.7 116.4
Utah 114.1 108.8 112.7 111.9
UCLA 110.0 108.3 109.3 109.2
Arizona St. 102.4 101.1 100.8 101.5
Arizona 94.8 92.5 93.2 93.5
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.5 106.4 109.4 108.8
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 115.7 113.2 114.8 114.6
Florida 112.2 113.7 110.5 112.1
Georgia 109.8 108.9 109.1 109.3
Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
Vanderbilt 101.8 98.9 100.5 100.4
South Carolina 100.4 100.1 100.1 100.2
Missouri 98.7 97.9 98.1 98.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 138.0 131.4 138.1 135.8
LSU 126.3 121.2 125.9 124.5
Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
Texas A&M 115.6 113.7 115.0 114.8
Ole Miss 112.6 108.6 111.4 110.9
Arkansas 111.2 106.8 109.5 109.2
Mississippi St. 107.5 105.7 106.5 106.6
         
SEC Averages 112.3 110.1 111.5 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.3 100.3 101.0 100.2
Troy 94.1 98.2 96.2 96.2
Arkansas St. 91.3 93.6 93.0 92.6
Georgia Southern 87.1 87.7 88.8 87.9
Idaho 83.3 88.3 85.3 85.6
South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
UL-Lafayette 79.5 84.3 81.1 81.7
Georgia St. 78.0 82.6 79.8 80.1
New Mexico St. 71.8 74.7 72.8 73.1
UL-Monroe 70.2 75.4 71.0 72.2
Texas St. 65.9 68.4 66.8 67.0
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.1 85.7 83.5 83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.3 110.1 111.5 111.3
2 ACC 111.8 108.2 111.3 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.5 106.4 109.4 108.8
4 Big 12 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.2
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.3 106.9 106.9
6 AAC 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.3
7 Independents 98.1 99.2 98.4 98.6
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.7 91.1 91.4
10 CUSA 84.4 87.8 85.5 85.9
11 Sun Belt 82.1 85.7 83.5 83.7

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

Retrodictive ratings are similar to poll rankings–wins and schedule strength

These ratings are not predictive in nature

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Louisville
4 Clemson
5 Michigan
6 Wisconsin
7 Washington
8 Penn St.
9 USC
10 Colorado
11 Western Michigan
12 Washington St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Florida St.
15 Auburn
16 LSU
17 West Virginia
18 Boise St.
19 Nebraska
20 Texas A&M
21 Utah
22 Stanford
23 Tennessee
24 Florida
25 Oklahoma St.
26 South Florida
27 North Carolina
28 Virginia Tech
29 Houston
30 San Diego St.
31 Troy
32 Ole Miss
33 Pittsburgh
34 Miami (Fla)
35 Navy
36 Temple
37 Iowa
38 BYU
39 Arkansas
40 Toledo
41 Tulsa
42 Northwestern
43 Minnesota
44 Western Kentucky
45 Appalachian St.
46 Georgia
47 Kansas St.
48 Baylor
49 Georgia Tech
50 Louisiana Tech
51 TCU
52 UCLA
53 Wyoming
54 Memphis
55 Texas
56 Central Florida
57 North Carolina St.
58 Arizona St.
59 Air Force
60 Wake Forest
61 Indiana
62 Kentucky
63 California
64 Mississippi St.
65 Maryland
66 South Carolina
67 New Mexico
68 Notre Dame
69 Old Dominion
70 Texas Tech
71 Oregon
72 Ohio
73 Colorado St.
74 Duke
75 SMU
76 Vanderbilt
77 Arkansas St.
78 Idaho
79 Syracuse
80 Eastern Michigan
81 Boston College
82 Middle Tennessee
83 Oregon St.
84 Michigan St.
85 Central Michigan
86 Illinois
87 Missouri
88 Georgia Southern
89 Southern Miss.
90 UTSA
91 Army
92 Miami (O)
93 Cincinnati
94 Arizona
95 South Alabama
96 Northern Illinois
97 Utah St.
98 Akron
99 East Carolina
100 Virginia
101 Tulane
102 UL-Lafayette
103 Kent St.
104 UNLV
105 Hawaii
106 Iowa St.
107 Connecticut
108 Purdue
109 North Texas
110 Ball St.
111 Rutgers
112 UL-Monroe
113 San Jose St.
114 Charlotte
115 Marshall
116 Bowling Green
117 Nevada
118 Georgia St.
119 Florida Int’l.
120 New Mexico St.
121 Massachusetts
122 UTEP
123 Kansas
124 Florida Atlantic
125 Texas St.
126 Buffalo
127 Rice
128 Fresno St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 15
Bowling Green Kent St. -3.1 -3.8 -3.7
Central Michigan Ohio U 3.5 -0.3 3.0
         
Wednesday, November 16
Toledo Ball St. 21.7 19.9 21.9
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois -5.5 -4.7 -6.1
         
Thursday, November 17
Houston Louisville -18.5 -14.9 -17.5
Troy Arkansas St. 5.8 7.6 6.2
         
Friday, November 18
Cincinnati Memphis -7.8 -5.6 -7.1
Boise St. UNLV 23.3 21.4 23.8
         
Saturday, November 19
Oregon St. Arizona 5.5 3.3 5.8
Colorado Washington St. 2.3 1.3 2.4
Utah Oregon 13.4 9.6 13.1
SMU South Florida -11.8 -10.4 -9.2
TCU Oklahoma St. -1.2 -0.7 -1.5
Illinois Iowa -15.6 -16.2 -16.3
Minnesota Northwestern -1.7 0.3 -1.9
Baylor Kansas St. 4.7 2.9 4.9
Nebraska Maryland 16.2 11.1 17.7
Purdue Wisconsin -25.8 -24.8 -27.9
Michigan St. Ohio St. -20.0 -20.3 -22.2
Texas A&M UTSA 33.2 25.0 30.3
Georgia UL-Lafayette 33.3 27.6 31.0
Rice UTEP 5.4 7.5 4.3
Georgia Tech Virginia 10.1 8.8 9.9
North Carolina St. Miami (Fla.) -8.5 -6.0 -8.4
LSU Florida 17.1 10.5 18.4
Boston College Connecticut 7.1 6.8 6.7
Charlotte Middle Tennessee -9.4 -5.3 -9.1
BYU Massachusetts 33.9 22.3 32.7
Georgia St. Georgia Southern -7.1 -3.1 -7.0
Appalachian St. UL-Monroe 32.1 27.9 33.0
Pittsburgh Duke 14.1 10.8 13.7
Western Michigan Buffalo 39.9 33.1 41.0
Syracuse Florida St. -17.3 -14.3 -19.4
Kansas Texas -23.5 -19.9 -25.0
Wyoming San Diego St. -12.6 -10.8 -13.9
Notre Dame Virginia Tech -0.1 -1.7 -1.0
Tennessee Missouri 20.0 18.3 19.7
Tulane Temple -19.5 -14.9 -19.2
Iowa St. Texas Tech -3.7 -3.2 -3.4
Michigan Indiana 29.7 25.8 30.3
East Carolina Navy -10.7 -7.5 -10.4
New Mexico St. Texas St. 8.4 8.8 8.5
California Stanford -14.1 -14.1 -16.0
North Texas Southern Miss. -4.7 -2.1 -4.4
Florida Atlantic Old Dominion -10.0 -8.3 -8.4
Wake Forest Clemson -22.2 -17.1 -20.7
Fresno St. Hawaii 0.5 4.5 0.5
Florida Int’l. Marshall -1.1 -0.1 -1.5
Mississippi St. Arkansas -0.7 1.9 0.1
Washington Arizona St. 28.6 22.9 29.6
Central Florida Tulsa -2.0 -1.8 -1.8
West Virginia Oklahoma -6.0 -5.1 -6.1
Vanderbilt Ole Miss -8.8 -7.7 -8.9
Rutgers Penn St. -23.8 -26.8 -25.0
Colorado St. New Mexico 1.0 0.5 1.2
UCLA USC -11.4 -8.1 -10.4
San Jose St. Air Force -9.5 -11.3 -10.1
Nevada Utah St. -0.9 -1.6 -0.2

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS vs. FCS Week 12  
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Morgan St. 41
North Carolina Citadel 28
South Carolina Western Carolina 30
Kentucky Austin Peay 41
Alabama Chattanooga 49
South Alabama Presbyterian 30
Auburn Alabama A&M 59

Bowl Projections

This week, we show 77 teams reaching bowl eligibility.  Three non-bowl eligible teams would thus be needed to fill in as alternates.  Of the three, only one team would have a 5-7 record, as the other two teams figure to be 6-6 with two FCS wins apiece.  Oddly, no at-large spots were needed other than the three alternate slots.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Central Fla. vs. Idaho
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Arkansas St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Middle Tenn. vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Memphis vs. Ohio U
Boca Raton AAC CUSA SMU vs. Old Dominion
Poinsettia MWC BYU Wyoming vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Miami (O) vs. Colorado St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Houston vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. Kansas St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Eastern Mich. vs. Appy St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC La. Tech vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Temple vs. Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Wake Forest vs. {Army}
Independence SEC ACC/ND Kentucky vs. {Boston Coll.}
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {S. Alabama} vs. North Texas
Military ACC/ND AAC N. C. State vs. South Florida
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Washington
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. California
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Utah
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulsa vs. S. Carolina
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. Texas A&M
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 N.Carolina vs. Stanford
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC W. Kentucky vs. Boise St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Indiana vs. Georgia
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Clemson vs. Penn St.
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Tennessee
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Louisville
Outback Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Colorado
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Wash. St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. LSU
CFP Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Ohio St.
           
           
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2015

Computer Simulations–Simper Bowl IX & Today’s College Playoffs

We are combining our own computer simulation championship game from our annual project with the actual College Football Playoff games today into one entity.

 

Simper Bowl IX

This year, we decided to expand our own computer college playoff to 24 teams just like in the Football Championship Series.  The prior rounds have been played, and you can search for the results on this site.  The Championship Game today pits #3 seed Oklahoma against #16 seed Ole Miss.

Oklahoma received a first round bye as the #3 seed.  The Sooners defeated Michigan 47-28 in the Sweet 16; Ohio State 26-20 in the Elite 8; and Stanford 31-20 in the Semifinal Round.

Ole Miss had to play in the opening round as the #16 seed.  The Rebels defeated Houston 39-24 in that round to advance to the Sweet 16.  Then, Ole Miss defeated top-ranked Clemson 35-20 in the Sweet 16; North Carolina 27-16 in the Elite 8; and Michigan State 27-17 in the Semifinals.

 

Here are the championship results.

Simper Bowl IX 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#3 Oklahoma 10 6 7 7 30 22 166 252 418
#16 Ole Miss 13 7 0 14 34 27 249 302 551

Congratulations to the Ole Miss Rebels, winner of Simper Bowl IX.

 

The College Football Playoffs 2015-16–The Real Larry Culpepper Playoffs

This is what you have been waiting for.  Yesterday, we input all the stats and schedule strengths for the four teams in today’s playoffs.  We even included the recent suspensions of Clemson players in the loss of talent.

 

We then simulated both games 100 times coming up with the number of wins, the average score, the standard deviations of the games, and the outlier scores in both directions.

 

Orange Bowl

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL

Time: 4:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, and Holly Rowe

Radio: ESPN, Bill Rosinksi, David Norrie, Joe Schad

Teams: Clemson (13-0) vs. Oklahoma (11-1)

100 Sims

Clemson wins: 39

Oklahoma wins: 61

Average Score: Oklahoma 30.7  Clemson 22.1

Standard Deviation: 8.6

Outlier A: Oklahoma 51  Clemson  16

Outlier B: Clemson 37  Oklahoma 14

 

Cotton Bowl

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, and Tom Rinaldi

Radio: ESPN, Brad Sham, Danny Kannell, and Ian Fitzsimmons

Teams: Alabama (12-1) vs. Michigan St. (12-1)

100 Sims

Alabama wins: 53

Michigan St. wins: 47

Average Score: Alabama 20.5  Michigan St. 18.8

Standard Deviation: 5.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan St. 6

Outlier B: Michigan St. 27  Alabama 16

December 11, 2015

Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs 2015-16: Round 2

Welcome back to round 2 of our computer simulated college football playoffs.  If you did not see last week’s posting of round 1, we are taking the Football Bowl Subdivision teams and applying the Football Championship Series rules to the playoffs.

 

Thus our FBS simulated playoffs consisted of 24 teams with every conference champion guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.

 

Here were this week’s Round 2 Pairings.

Second Round
#9 Notre Dame at
#8 North Carolina  
   
#10 Florida St. at
#7 Stanford  
   
#11 TCU at
#6 Ohio St.  
   
#12 Baylor at
#5 Michigan St.  
   
#13 Northwestern at
#4 Iowa  
   
#19 Michigan at
#3 Oklahoma  
   
#15 Oregon at
#2 Alabama  
   
#16 Ole Miss at
#1 Clemson  

 

The games were simulated, and there were some surprises.  Here are the final scores of the games.

North Carolina 27  Notre Dame 23

Stanford 24  Florida St. 20

Ohio St. 34  TCU 21

Michigan St. 27  Baylor 24

Iowa 23 Northwestern 17

Oklahoma 47  Michigan 28

Alabama 20  Oregon 16

Ole Miss 35  Clemson 20

 

Here are the basic stats for those games.

Second Round 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#9 Notre Dame at 0 14 6 3 23 19 171 149 320
#8 North Carolina   7 10 3 7 27 20 135 271 406
                     
#10 Florida St. at 6 14 0 0 20 17 183 128 311
#7 Stanford   3 7 7 7 24 18 206 149 355
                     
#11 TCU at 0 7 14 0 21 18 130 211 341
#6 Ohio St.   6 3 15 10 34 34 271 138 409
                     
#12 Baylor at 0 3 14 7 24 23 98 226 324
#5 Michigan St.   6 14 7 0 27 16 188 177 365
                     
#13 Northwestern at 10 0 7 0 17 16 129 176 305
#4 Iowa   0 6 3 14 23 16 135 153 288
                     
#19 Michigan at 0 7 7 14 28 22 169 250 419
#3 Oklahoma   14 17 9 7 47 27 251 279 530
                     
#15 Oregon at 3 3 10 0 16 14 76 202 278
#2 Alabama   7 7 3 3 20 18 247 139 386
                     
#16 Ole Miss at 21 7 7 0 35 23 190 194 384
#1 Clemson   0 6 7 7 20 17 147 161 308

 

Here are the pairings for the Quarterfinal Round.

Quarterfinal Round  
#16 Ole Miss at
#8 North Carolina  
   
#7 Stanford at
#2 Alabama  
   
#6 Ohio St. at
#3 Oklahoma  
   
#5 Michigan St. at
#4 Iowa  

November 22, 2015

College Football Preview: November 24-28, 2015

Need Nine More
As of today, there are 71 bowl eligible teams with nine more needed to avoid having to invite a team with a losing record. Good news, because there are 18 teams that still have a chance to become bowl eligible, so just half of these teams need to get to six wins. At the present time, we project 82 teams to become bowl eligible, meaning two teams will not get invitations.

Here is a breakdown by conference.

POWER 5 CONFERENCES
Atlantic Coast
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:45 PM or 8:00 PM Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC on ABC or ESPN

Atlantic Division Champion: Clemson

Coastal Division Champion: North Carolina

Bowl Eligible: 8 (9)
Clemson, Duke, Florida St., Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St., Pittsburgh, (Notre Dame)

Still Alive
Virginia Tech 5-6 must defeat Virginia this week
Note: Notre Dame can receive any ACC Bowl, and they can jump ahead of any ACC team with one more win than they have.

Big 12
No Championship Game
Championship Scenarios
Oklahoma controls its own destiny. If they beat Oklahoma St., the Sooners are champs.
Oklahoma State can win title if TCU beats Baylor, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.
Baylor can win title if they beat TCU and Texas and Oklahoma St. beats Oklahoma.

Bowl Eligible: 6
Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Still Alive
Kansas St. 4-6 must beat Kansas and West Virginia
Texas 4-6 must beat Texas Tech and Baylor

Big Ten
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 8:15 PM Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN on Fox Sports

East Division Scenarios
Michigan St. controls its own destiny. If they beat Penn St., the Spartans are division champions
If Michigan St. loses, the Ohio St.-Michigan winner wins the division title

West Division Champion: Iowa

Bowl Eligible: 7
Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St., Northwestern, Ohio St., Penn St., Wisconsin

Still Alive
Illinois 5-6 must beat Northwestern
Indiana 5-6 must beat Purdue
Minnesota 5-6 must beat Wisconsin
Nebraska 5-6 must beat Iowa

Pac-12
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:45 PM or 8:00 PM Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA on ABC or ESPN

North Division Champion: Stanford
South Division Champion: UCLA-USC winner

Bowl Eligible: 9
Arizona, Arizona St., California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington St.

Still Alive
Washington 5-6 must beat Washington St.

Southeastern
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 4:00 PM Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA on CBS

East Division Champion: Florida

West Division Champion Scenarios
Alabama controls its own destiny. If they beat Auburn, they are West Division champions
Ole Miss can win the division if they beat Mississippi St., and Auburn beats Alabama

Bowl Eligible: 10
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., Tennessee, Texas A&M

Still Alive
Kentucky 5-6 must beat Louisville
Missouri 5-6 must beat Arkansas

GROUP OF 5 CONFERENCES
American Athletic
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 Noon at West Division Champion on ABC or ESPN

East Division Scenarios
Temple controls their own destiny. If they beat Connecticut, the Owls are in the AAC Championship Game.
If South Florida beats Central Florida and Temple loses, then USF is division champ.
West Division Champion: Houston-Navy winner will host Championship Game

Bowl Eligible: 7
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Temple

Still Alive
East Carolina 5-6 must beat Cincinnati
Tulsa 5-6 must beat Tulane

Conference USA
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 Noon at home stadium of team with the better record, on ESPN2

East Division Champion: Western Kentucky-Marshall winner

West Division Champion: Louisiana Tech-Southern Miss. winner

Bowl Eligible: 5
Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss., Western Kentucky

Still Alive
Old Dominion 5-6 must beat Florida Atlantic

Independents
Notre Dame is bowl eligible and figures in the ACC bowls
BYU is bowl eligible and will play in the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl
Army is not bowl eligible, opening up an at-large spot in the Poinsettia Bowl

Mid-American
Championship Game: Friday, December 4, 8:00 PM Ford Field, Detroit, MI on ESPN2

East Division Champion: Bowling Green

West Division Scenarios
Northern Illinois controls its own destiny. If the Broncos beat Ohio, they are division champs.
Toledo wins the division title if they beat Western Michigan, and Ohio beats Northern Illinois.

Bowl Eligible: 7
Akron, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive
Buffalo 5-6 must beat Massachusetts

Mountain West
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:30 PM at Air Force on ESPN2

Mountain Division Champion: Air Force

West Division Champion: San Diego St.

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Colorado St., New Mexico, Nevada, San Diego St., Utah St.

Still Alive
San Jose St. 5-6 must beat Boise St.

Sun Belt
No Championship Game

Championship Scenarios
Arkansas St. 6-0 controls its own destiny and has New Mexico St. and Texas St. remaining
Appalachian St. 5-1 wins the SBC if Arkansas St. loses both games, and Appy beats ULL and South Alabama
Georgia Southern 5-1 wins the SBC if Arkansas St. loses both games, Appy St. loses one game, and GSU beats South Alabama and Georgia St.

Bowl Eligible: 3
Appalachian St., Arkansas St., Georgia Southern

Still Alive
Georgia St. 4-6 must beat Troy and Georgia Southern
UL-Lafayette 4-6 must beat Appalachian St. and Troy
South Alabama 5-5 must beat either Georgia Southern or Appalachian St.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.7 129.4 131.8 131.0
2 Oklahoma 127.7 124.0 128.4 126.7
3 Baylor 127.3 123.6 127.7 126.2
4 Ohio St. 126.7 121.9 127.0 125.2
5 Stanford 123.4 120.6 123.4 122.5
6 North Carolina 121.8 122.2 122.2 122.1
7 Ole Miss 124.0 119.2 122.6 121.9
8 Clemson 121.5 122.5 121.4 121.8
9 TCU 123.0 115.3 123.7 120.7
10 Notre Dame 121.0 118.6 120.5 120.0
11 UCLA 121.9 116.2 120.8 119.6
12 Arkansas 120.5 115.6 119.7 118.6
13 Tennessee 119.8 115.8 119.7 118.4
14 Oregon 120.1 114.8 120.3 118.4
15 USC 119.6 115.0 118.7 117.8
16 LSU 119.3 115.6 118.4 117.8
17 Michigan 117.8 115.4 117.8 117.0
18 Utah 119.3 113.6 117.8 116.9
19 Oklahoma St. 117.6 114.4 117.2 116.4
20 Mississippi St. 116.9 113.8 117.5 116.1
21 Michigan St. 117.1 114.2 116.8 116.0
22 Florida 116.7 113.4 116.7 115.6
23 Florida St. 115.2 116.5 114.8 115.5
24 Texas A&M 116.9 113.7 115.4 115.3
25 Georgia 116.1 110.8 115.4 114.1
26 West Virginia 115.2 109.7 114.4 113.1
27 California 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
28 Arizona St. 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
29 Washington 113.4 110.1 113.3 112.3
30 Auburn 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
31 Iowa 110.9 112.7 111.4 111.7
32 Virginia Tech 110.8 110.7 111.1 110.9
33 Wisconsin 111.0 110.3 109.5 110.3
34 Houston 107.7 113.1 109.1 110.0
35 Washington St. 110.5 107.1 111.3 109.6
36 Navy 107.5 111.6 109.2 109.4
37 North Carolina St. 109.4 110.6 107.9 109.3
38 Western Kentucky 108.9 109.0 109.9 109.3
39 Pittsburgh 108.6 109.6 109.5 109.2
40 Bowling Green 106.6 111.2 109.5 109.1
41 Nebraska 109.1 107.4 108.6 108.4
42 San Diego St. 106.1 110.7 108.2 108.3
43 Temple 107.1 109.3 108.3 108.2
44 Georgia Tech 109.1 106.9 107.5 107.8
45 BYU 107.3 107.2 107.9 107.5
46 Louisville 107.0 108.9 106.4 107.4
47 Missouri 108.2 104.7 107.2 106.7
48 Toledo 105.4 106.9 107.1 106.5
49 Penn St. 106.3 106.1 105.9 106.1
50 Boise St. 107.0 104.0 106.5 105.8
51 Northwestern 105.6 105.9 105.7 105.7
52 Arizona 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
53 Memphis 105.2 106.3 105.5 105.7
54 Minnesota 105.7 104.5 105.5 105.2
55 South Carolina 106.9 103.3 105.4 105.2
56 Texas Tech 107.9 99.7 107.7 105.1
57 Miami 104.7 104.9 105.2 104.9
58 Illinois 104.9 102.6 103.7 103.7
59 Texas 104.9 101.1 104.7 103.6
60 Cincinnati 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
61 Duke 103.0 102.7 102.7 102.8
62 South Florida 100.3 106.1 101.4 102.6
63 Colorado 104.6 99.7 102.7 102.3
64 Virginia 102.6 101.5 102.8 102.3
65 Western Michigan 101.2 102.2 102.1 101.8
66 Louisiana Tech 101.3 101.6 102.1 101.7
67 Kansas St. 105.1 95.6 104.1 101.6
68 Boston College 100.8 103.3 99.5 101.2
69 Air Force 99.8 103.5 100.1 101.1
70 Kentucky 102.8 99.0 101.6 101.1
71 Georgia Southern 99.7 102.1 101.2 101.0
72 Northern Illinois 98.2 102.3 99.6 100.0
73 Iowa St. 100.8 97.1 101.1 99.7
74 Indiana 99.6 99.7 99.5 99.6
75 Vanderbilt 100.5 96.4 99.9 98.9
76 Marshall 98.4 99.3 98.6 98.8
77 Appalachian St. 96.9 100.2 98.9 98.7
78 Utah St. 98.4 98.9 97.4 98.2
79 Wake Forest 96.5 99.6 96.2 97.4
80 Southern Mississippi 95.4 98.0 96.4 96.6
81 East Carolina 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
82 Purdue 96.5 95.7 95.2 95.8
83 Syracuse 94.6 97.2 94.3 95.4
84 Arkansas St. 93.9 95.1 95.5 94.8
85 Middle Tennessee 94.6 93.9 94.4 94.3
86 Colorado St. 93.6 94.0 93.5 93.7
87 Connecticut 91.3 96.5 93.1 93.6
88 San Jose St. 92.5 95.3 92.9 93.6
89 Maryland 94.0 92.7 93.7 93.5
90 Central Michigan 91.1 95.2 93.3 93.2
91 Rutgers 94.0 91.5 91.9 92.5
92 Tulsa 89.4 93.4 90.3 91.0
93 Nevada 89.6 93.4 89.7 90.9
94 New Mexico 90.9 91.3 89.8 90.7
95 Ohio 87.2 91.3 88.8 89.1
96 Akron 85.0 91.0 87.1 87.7
97 SMU 85.3 88.9 84.9 86.4
98 Oregon St. 87.7 84.3 85.6 85.9
99 Florida Atlantic 84.2 87.6 85.1 85.6
100 Florida International 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
101 Buffalo 81.5 87.1 82.6 83.7
102 Massachusetts 82.2 85.3 82.5 83.3
103 UNLV 82.3 84.2 82.9 83.1
104 Tulane 82.6 85.2 81.5 83.1
105 Troy 81.9 83.4 82.9 82.7
106 Georgia St. 80.5 82.0 81.5 81.3
107 Army 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
108 Fresno St. 80.7 83.5 78.5 80.9
109 Ball St. 80.0 82.2 80.4 80.9
110 UL-Lafayette 80.2 82.6 79.8 80.9
111 UT-San Antonio 78.8 81.5 79.4 79.9
112 Wyoming 79.6 81.0 78.2 79.6
113 Kent St. 78.2 80.9 78.7 79.3
114 UTEP 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
115 Rice 78.2 80.9 77.6 78.9
116 Hawaii 78.2 79.8 76.9 78.3
117 Old Dominion 76.6 80.5 76.2 77.8
118 Central Florida 76.7 79.5 76.6 77.6
119 South Alabama 75.4 80.5 76.3 77.4
120 Miami (O) 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
121 Idaho 73.8 78.8 75.0 75.9
122 Texas St. 74.5 77.2 74.5 75.4
123 New Mexico St. 73.2 75.3 73.8 74.1
124 North Texas 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
125 Kansas 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
126 Eastern Michigan 70.7 76.6 70.1 72.5
127 UL-Monroe 70.8 69.7 70.1 70.2
128 Charlotte 67.9 69.6 67.8 68.4

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Oklahoma
4 Ohio St.
5 Notre Dame
6 Iowa
7 Baylor
8 Michigan St.
9 Stanford
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Michigan
12 TCU
13 Florida
14 North Carolina
15 Ole Miss
16 Florida St.
17 Navy
18 Mississippi St.
19 Northwestern
20 Oregon
21 Utah
22 LSU
23 USC
24 UCLA
25 Toledo
26 Tennessee
27 Houston
28 Pittsburgh
29 Wisconsin
30 Texas A&M
31 Washington St.
32 Arkansas
33 Georgia
34 West Virginia
35 Temple
36 Memphis
37 California
38 BYU
39 Penn St.
40 Western Kentucky
41 Bowling Green
42 Texas Tech
43 Auburn
44 South Florida
45 Miami (Fla)
46 Washington
47 North Carolina St.
48 Arizona St.
49 Appalachian St.
50 San Diego St.
51 Northern Illinois
52 Louisville
53 Georgia Southern
54 Nebraska
55 Air Force
56 Virginia Tech
57 Minnesota
58 Louisiana Tech
59 Marshall
60 Texas
61 Indiana
62 Boise St.
63 Kansas St.
64 Duke
65 Southern Miss.
66 Central Michigan
67 Cincinnati
68 Illinois
69 Arkansas St.
70 Arizona
71 Connecticut
72 Virginia
73 Western Michigan
74 Georgia Tech
75 Utah St.
76 Kentucky
77 Iowa St.
78 Ohio
79 Tulsa
80 Missouri
81 Vanderbilt
82 East Carolina
83 South Carolina
84 Rutgers
85 Middle Tennessee
86 Syracuse
87 Maryland
88 San Jose St.
89 Buffalo
90 Boston College
91 Colorado
92 Akron
93 Colorado St.
94 Wake Forest
95 Nevada
96 Troy
97 New Mexico
98 Purdue
99 South Alabama
100 Oregon St.
101 Georgia St.
102 SMU
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Old Dominion
105 Louisiana-Lafayette
106 UNLV
107 Tulane
108 Ball St.
109 Rice
110 Florida Atlantic
111 UTSA
112 Idaho
113 New Mexico St.
114 Texas St.
115 Kent St.
116 Fresno St.
117 Kansas
118 Massachusetts
119 UTEP
120 Miami (O)
121 Army
122 Hawaii
123 Wyoming
124 Louisiana-Monroe
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 6-1 9-2 107.1 109.3 108.3 108.2
Cincinnati 3-4 6-5 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
South Florida 5-2 7-4 100.3 106.1 101.4 102.6
East Carolina 3-4 5-6 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
Connecticut 4-3 6-5 91.3 96.5 93.1 93.6
Central Florida 0-7 0-11 76.7 79.5 76.6 77.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 6-1 10-1 107.7 113.1 109.1 110.0
Navy 7-0 9-1 107.5 111.6 109.2 109.4
Memphis 4-3 8-3 105.2 106.3 105.5 105.7
Tulsa 2-5 5-6 89.4 93.4 90.3 91.0
SMU 1-6 2-9 85.3 88.9 84.9 86.4
Tulane 1-6 3-8 82.6 85.2 81.5 83.1
             
AAC Averages     95.8 99.4 96.6 97.2
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 8-0 11-0 121.5 122.5 121.4 121.8
Florida St. 6-2 9-2 115.2 116.5 114.8 115.5
North Carolina St. 3-4 7-4 109.4 110.6 107.9 109.3
Louisville 5-3 6-5 107.0 108.9 106.4 107.4
Boston College 0-7 3-8 100.8 103.3 99.5 101.2
Wake Forest 1-6 3-8 96.5 99.6 96.2 97.4
Syracuse 1-6 3-8 94.6 97.2 94.3 95.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 7-0 10-1 121.8 122.2 122.2 122.1
Virginia Tech 3-4 5-6 110.8 110.7 111.1 110.9
Pittsburgh 6-1 8-3 108.6 109.6 109.5 109.2
Georgia Tech 1-7 3-8 109.1 106.9 107.5 107.8
Miami 4-3 7-4 104.7 104.9 105.2 104.9
Duke 3-4 6-5 103.0 102.7 102.7 102.8
Virginia 3-4 4-7 102.6 101.5 102.8 102.3
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.4 107.3 107.7
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 7-1 10-1 127.7 124.0 128.4 126.7
Baylor 6-1 9-1 127.3 123.6 127.7 126.2
TCU 6-2 9-2 123.0 115.3 123.7 120.7
Oklahoma St. 7-1 10-1 117.6 114.4 117.2 116.4
West Virginia 3-4 6-4 115.2 109.7 114.4 113.1
Texas Tech 3-5 6-5 107.9 99.7 107.7 105.1
Texas 3-4 4-6 104.9 101.1 104.7 103.6
Kansas St. 1-6 4-6 105.1 95.6 104.1 101.6
Iowa St. 2-6 3-8 100.8 97.1 101.1 99.7
Kansas 0-8 0-11 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.5 105.0 110.2 108.6
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 6-1 10-1 126.7 121.9 127.0 125.2
Michigan 6-1 9-2 117.8 115.4 117.8 117.0
Michigan St. 6-1 10-1 117.1 114.2 116.8 116.0
Penn St. 4-3 7-4 106.3 106.1 105.9 106.1
Indiana 1-6 5-6 99.6 99.7 99.5 99.6
Maryland 0-7 2-9 94.0 92.7 93.7 93.5
Rutgers 1-6 4-7 94.0 91.5 91.9 92.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 7-0 11-0 110.9 112.7 111.4 111.7
Wisconsin 5-2 8-3 111.0 110.3 109.5 110.3
Nebraska 3-4 5-6 109.1 107.4 108.6 108.4
Northwestern 5-2 9-2 105.6 105.9 105.7 105.7
Minnesota 2-5 5-6 105.7 104.5 105.5 105.2
Illinois 2-5 5-6 104.9 102.6 103.7 103.7
Purdue 1-6 2-9 96.5 95.7 95.2 95.8
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 7-0 9-2 108.9 109.0 109.9 109.3
Marshall 6-1 9-2 98.4 99.3 98.6 98.8
Middle Tennessee 5-2 6-5 94.6 93.9 94.4 94.3
Florida Atlantic 2-5 2-9 84.2 87.6 85.1 85.6
Florida International 3-5 5-7 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
Old Dominion 3-4 5-6 76.6 80.5 76.2 77.8
Charlotte 0-7 2-9 67.9 69.6 67.8 68.4
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 6-1 8-3 101.3 101.6 102.1 101.7
Southern Mississippi 6-1 8-3 95.4 98.0 96.4 96.6
UT-San Antonio 3-4 3-8 78.8 81.5 79.4 79.9
UTEP 2-5 4-7 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
Rice 2-5 4-7 78.2 80.9 77.6 78.9
North Texas 1-6 1-10 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
             
CUSA Averages     86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   10-1 121.0 118.6 120.5 120.0
BYU   8-3 107.3 107.2 107.9 107.5
Army   2-9 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
             
Independents Averages     102.1 103.8 102.6 102.8
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 6-1 8-3 106.6 111.2 109.5 109.1
Ohio 4-3 7-4 87.2 91.3 88.8 89.1
Akron 4-3 6-5 85.0 91.0 87.1 87.7
Buffalo 3-4 5-6 81.5 87.1 82.6 83.7
Massachusetts 1-6 2-9 82.2 85.3 82.5 83.3
Kent St. 2-5 3-8 78.2 80.9 78.7 79.3
Miami (O) 2-6 3-9 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-1 9-1 105.4 106.9 107.1 106.5
Western Michigan 5-2 6-5 101.2 102.2 102.1 101.8
Northern Illinois 6-1 8-3 98.2 102.3 99.6 100.0
Central Michigan 5-2 6-5 91.1 95.2 93.3 93.2
Ball St. 2-5 3-8 80.0 82.2 80.4 80.9
Eastern Michigan 0-7 1-10 70.7 76.6 70.1 72.5
             
MAC Averages     87.9 91.7 89.1 89.6
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-3 7-4 107.0 104.0 106.5 105.8
Air Force 6-1 8-3 99.8 103.5 100.1 101.1
Utah St. 5-3 6-5 98.4 98.9 97.4 98.2
Colorado St. 4-3 6-5 93.6 94.0 93.5 93.7
New Mexico 4-3 6-5 90.9 91.3 89.8 90.7
Wyoming 1-6 1-10 79.6 81.0 78.2 79.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 7-0 8-3 106.1 110.7 108.2 108.3
San Jose St. 4-3 5-6 92.5 95.3 92.9 93.6
Nevada 4-3 6-5 89.6 93.4 89.7 90.9
UNLV 2-5 3-8 82.3 84.2 82.9 83.1
Fresno St. 2-6 3-8 80.7 83.5 78.5 80.9
Hawaii 0-8 2-10 78.2 79.8 76.9 78.3
             
MWC Averages     91.6 93.3 91.2 92.0
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 8-1 9-2 123.4 120.6 123.4 122.5
Oregon 6-2 8-3 120.1 114.8 120.3 118.4
California 3-5 6-5 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
Washington 3-5 5-6 113.4 110.1 113.3 112.3
Washington St. 6-2 8-3 110.5 107.1 111.3 109.6
Oregon St. 0-8 2-9 87.7 84.3 85.6 85.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
UCLA 5-3 8-3 121.9 116.2 120.8 119.6
USC 5-3 7-4 119.6 115.0 118.7 117.8
Utah 5-3 8-3 119.3 113.6 117.8 116.9
Arizona St. 4-4 6-5 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
Arizona 3-6 6-6 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
Colorado 1-7 4-8 104.6 99.7 102.7 102.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.2 108.6 112.4 111.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 4-3 7-4 119.8 115.8 119.7 118.4
Florida 7-1 10-1 116.7 113.4 116.7 115.6
Georgia 5-3 8-3 116.1 110.8 115.4 114.1
Missouri 1-6 5-6 108.2 104.7 107.2 106.7
South Carolina 1-7 3-8 106.9 103.3 105.4 105.2
Kentucky 2-6 5-6 102.8 99.0 101.6 101.1
Vanderbilt 2-5 4-7 100.5 96.4 99.9 98.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 6-1 10-1 131.7 129.4 131.8 131.0
Ole Miss 5-2 8-3 124.0 119.2 122.6 121.9
Arkansas 4-3 6-5 120.5 115.6 119.7 118.6
LSU 4-3 7-3 119.3 115.6 118.4 117.8
Mississippi St. 4-3 8-3 116.9 113.8 117.5 116.1
Texas A&M 4-3 8-3 116.9 113.7 115.4 115.3
Auburn 2-5 6-5 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
             
SEC Averages     115.3 111.5 114.5 113.8
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 5-1 7-3 99.7 102.1 101.2 101.0
Appalachian St. 5-1 8-2 96.9 100.2 98.9 98.7
Arkansas St. 6-0 7-3 93.9 95.1 95.5 94.8
Troy 2-4 3-7 81.9 83.4 82.9 82.7
Georgia St. 3-3 4-6 80.5 82.0 81.5 81.3
UL-Lafayette 3-3 4-6 80.2 82.6 79.8 80.9
South Alabama 3-3 5-5 75.4 80.5 76.3 77.4
Idaho 2-5 3-8 73.8 78.8 75.0 75.9
Texas St. 2-4 3-7 74.5 77.2 74.5 75.4
New Mexico St. 3-3 3-7 73.2 75.3 73.8 74.1
UL-Monroe 0-7 1-10 70.8 69.7 70.1 70.2
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.9 84.3 82.7 82.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.3 111.5 114.5 113.8
2 Pac-12 113.2 108.6 112.4 111.4
3 Big 12 110.5 105.0 110.2 108.6
4 ACC 107.5 108.4 107.3 107.7
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
6 Indep. 102.1 103.8 102.6 102.8
7 AAC 95.8 99.4 96.6 97.2
8 MWC 91.6 93.3 91.2 92.0
9 MAC 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.6
10 CUSA 86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
11 SBC 81.9 84.3 82.7 82.9

 

Projected Playoff Teams

NCAA Playoffs
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Iowa
4 Oklahoma

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team
1 Navy
2 Houston
3 Toledo
4 Western Kentucky
5 Air Force

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team
10 Iowa St.
9 Indiana
8 Vanderbilt
7 Wake Forest
6 Purdue
5 Syracuse
4 Maryland
3 Rutgers
2 Oregon St.
1 Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 97.5
2 North Dakota St. 91.9
3 Dartmouth 91.8
4 Harvard 91.6
5 McNeese St. 91.5
6 Illinois St. 91.0
7 Charleston Southern 90.1
8 Portland St. 89.8
9 James Madison 89.7
10 Citadel 89.6

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 24        
Ball St. Bowling Green -24.1 -26.5 -26.6
Northern Illinois Ohio 14.0 14.0 13.8
         
Thursday, November 26        
Central Florida South Florida -21.6 -24.6 -22.8
Texas Texas Tech 0.0 4.4 0.0
         
Friday, November 27        
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) 6.9 7.7 7.3
Western Kentucky Marshall 13.5 12.7 14.3
Houston Navy 3.2 4.5 2.9
Toledo Western Michigan 7.2 7.7 8.0
Akron Kent St. 9.3 2.6 10.9
Central Michigan Eastern Michigan 22.9 21.1 25.7
Georgia St. Troy 0.6 0.6 0.6
Arkansas Missouri 15.3 13.9 15.5
Oregon Oregon St. 34.4 32.5 36.7
Washington Washington St. 4.9 5.0 4.0
Nebraska Iowa 1.2 -2.3 0.2
San Jose St. Boise St. -11.5 -5.7 -10.6
Buffalo Massachusetts 1.8 4.3 2.6
TCU Baylor -1.8 -5.8 -1.5
Tulane Tulsa -4.3 -5.7 -6.3
         
Saturday, November 21        
East Carolina Cincinnati -4.3 -2.4 -4.7
Memphis SMU 22.9 20.4 23.6
West Virginia Iowa St. 17.4 15.6 16.3
Purdue Indiana -1.1 -2.0 -2.3
Rutgers Maryland 2.5 1.3 0.7
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss. 8.4 6.1 8.2
Michigan Ohio St. -5.9 -3.5 -6.2
Old Dominion Florida Atlantic -5.1 -4.6 -6.4
South Carolina Clemson -12.6 -17.2 -14.0
Virginia Virginia Tech -6.2 -7.2 -6.3
Georgia Tech Georgia -5.0 -1.9 -5.9
Kentucky Louisville -2.2 -7.9 -2.8
Syracuse Boston College -3.7 -3.6 -2.7
Wake Forest Duke -4.5 -1.1 -4.5
Appalachian St. Louisiana-Lafayette 19.2 20.1 21.6
Wyoming UNLV -0.2 -0.7 -2.2
Georgia Southern South Alabama 26.8 24.1 27.4
UTSA Middle Tennessee -13.3 -9.9 -12.5
Utah Colorado 17.7 16.9 18.1
North Carolina St. North Carolina -10.4 -9.6 -12.3
Auburn Alabama -16.1 -17.0 -17.5
Rice Charlotte 12.3 13.3 11.8
Michigan St. Penn St. 13.8 11.1 13.9
Minnesota Wisconsin -2.3 -2.8 -1.0
North Texas UTEP -4.0 -3.2 -4.0
USC UCLA -0.3 2.0 -0.1
Northwestern (Chi.) Illinois 0.7 3.3 2.0
Utah St. BYU -6.9 -6.3 -8.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -18.2 -17.3 -19.2
Kansas Kansas St. -27.4 -24.3 -28.7
Tennessee Vanderbilt 22.3 22.4 22.8
Idaho Texas St. 1.8 4.1 3.0
Temple Connecticut 18.3 15.3 17.7
Mississippi St. Ole Miss -5.1 -3.4 -3.1
Stanford Notre Dame 5.4 5.0 5.9
Florida Florida St. 3.5 -1.1 3.9
LSU Texas A&M 5.4 4.9 16.0
Oklahoma St. Oklahoma -8.1 -7.6 -9.2
Fresno St. Colorado St. -10.4 -8.0 -12.5
California Arizona St. 3.6 3.2 3.1
New Mexico Air Force -5.9 -9.2 -7.3
San Diego St. Nevada 19.5 20.3 21.5
Hawaii Louisiana-Monroe 11.4 14.1 10.8

 

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati vs. Washington *
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Tulsa *
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU USC vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Connecticut vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia MWC Army Air Force vs. Arizona St. *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Toledo vs. Appalachian St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Southern Miss. vs. Bowling Green
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Houston vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Utah
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Utah St. * vs. Middle Tennessee
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Kentucky vs. Miami (Fla.)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. California
Military ACC AAC Louisville vs. Temple
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Central Michigan * vs. San Jose St. *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Washington St. * vs. Colorado St.
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma St.
Arizona CUSA MWC Old Dominion vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC East Carolina vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech vs. LSU
Music City ACC/B10 SEC Penn St. vs. Tennessee
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Navy
Cotton Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. North Carolina
Orange Playoff Playoff Oklahoma vs. Iowa
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. UCLA
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Georgia
Citrus Big Ten SEC Ohio St. vs. Mississippi St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Michigan vs. Notre Dame
TaxSlayer ACC/B10 SEC North Carolina St. vs. Ole Miss
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Oregon
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

September 22, 2015

College Football Preview: September 24-26, 2015

It was an interesting Week 3 in the college football world with Ole Miss topping off an incredible day by topping Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  Ohio State and TCU looked very beatable in narrow wins over Northern Illinois and SMU, while Georgia and Notre Dame pulled off convincing wins.

We start to ruminate about the playoff teams for this year, and you will see our first look at who we believe are the leaders in the clubhouse.  One of our readers, Gary in Toronto, has sent us a comment asking who we believe would have been the four playoff teams in recent years before the playoffs were real.  Gary, we did this one better.  We calculated who we thought would have made the playoffs all the way back to 1969, when we first began compiling ratings.

What follows is not who WE thought should have been in the playoffs; this is who we believe the COMMITTEE of the time period would have selected based on the same criteria they use today, plus our personal belief that politics do play a part.  Thus, deserving undefeated teams like Miami of Ohio and Toledo in the 1970’s, and maybe even Dartmouth in 1970 would have been excluded for one and two-loss teams from the power leagues.  For you trivia buffs, Dartmouth was actually a ranked team in 1970, the last Ivy League team to finish the season ranked in the then top 20 (Yale was the last Ivy League team to appear in the weekly rankings in 1972).

Here they are:

2013: 1-Florida St.,  2-Auburn,  3-Michigan St., 4-Alabama
2012: 1-Alabama, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Oregon, 4-Stanford
2011: 1-LSU, 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma St., 4-Oregon
2010: 1-Auburn, 2-Oregon, 3-TCU, 4-Stanford
2009: 1-Alabama, 2-Texas, 3-Florida, 4-Boise St.
2008: 1-Florida, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Utah
2007: 1-LSU, 2-Ohio St., 3-Kansas, 4-West Virginia
2006: 1-Ohio St., 2-Florida, 3-Michigan, 4-USC
2005: 1-Texas, 2-USC, 3-Penn St., 4-Virginia Tech
2004: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Auburn, 4-Utah
2003: 1-LSU, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Michigan
2002: 1-Ohio St., 2-Miami, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
2001: 1-Miami, 2-Nebraska, 3-Oregon, 4-Colorado
2000: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Florida St., 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1999: 1-Florida St., 2-Virginia Tech, 3-Nebraska, 4-Kansas St.
1998: 1-Tennessee. 2-Florida St., 3-Ohio St., 4-Kansas St.
1997: 1-Nebraska, 2-Michigan, 3-Florida St., 4-Tennessee
1996: 1-Florida St., 2-Florida, 3-Ohio St., 4-Arizona St.
1995: 1-Nebraska, 2-Florida, 3-Tennessee, 4-Ohio St.
1994: 1-Nebraska, 2-Penn St., 3-Miami, 4-Colorado
1993: 1-Florida St., 2-Notre Dame, 3-West Virginia, 4-Nebraska
1992: 1-Alabama. 2-Miami, 3-Texas A&M, 4-Florida St.
1991: 1-Miami, 2-Washington, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1990: 1: Georgia Tech, 2-Colorado, 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1989: 1-Miami, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Colorado, 4-Tennessee
1988: 1-Notre Dame, 2-West Virginia, 3-Miami, 4-Florida St.
1987: 1-Miami, 2-Oklahoma 3-Florida St., 4-Syracuse
1986: 1-Miami, 2-Penn St., 3-Oklahoma, 4-Michigan
1985: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Penn St., 3-Michigan, 4-Miami
1984: 1-BYU, 2-Washington, 3-Nebraska, 4-Boston College
1983: 1-Nebraska, 2-Texas, 3-Miami, 4-Auburn
1982: 1-Georgia, 2-Penn St., 3-Nebraska, 4-SMU
1981: 1-Clemson, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Georgia, 4-Penn St.
1980: 1-Georgia, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Notre Dame, 4-Nebraska
1979: 1-Alabama, 2-USC, 3-Ohio St., 4-Oklahoma
1978: 1-Penn St., 2-USC, 3-Alabama, 4-Oklahoma
1977: 1-Texas, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1976: 1-Pittsburgh, 2-Michigan, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
1975: 1-Ohio St., 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma, 4-Arizona St.
1974: 1-Alabama, 2-Ohio St., 3-USC, 4-Michigan
1973: 1-Notre Dame, 2-Alabama, 3-Penn St., 4-Ohio St.
1972: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Texas, 4-Michigan
1971: 1-Nebraska, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1970: 1-Texas, 2-Nebraska, 3-Tennessee, 4-Notre Dame
1969: 1-Texas, 2-Penn St., 3-USC, 4-Missouri

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 133.4 124.0 134.3 130.6
2 Ole Miss 130.2 123.8 128.8 127.6
3 LSU 125.8 121.8 125.6 124.4
4 TCU 127.4 117.2 128.5 124.4
5 Alabama 125.0 123.3 124.6 124.3
6 Baylor 123.7 119.8 124.2 122.6
7 Notre Dame 123.4 119.4 123.9 122.2
8 Georgia 124.4 116.8 123.7 121.6
9 USC 121.5 118.2 121.9 120.5
10 Oklahoma 121.1 118.4 121.4 120.3
11 Georgia Tech 123.0 115.0 122.6 120.2
12 Oregon 122.8 114.8 122.2 119.9
13 UCLA 122.6 116.1 120.5 119.7
14 Texas A&M 120.4 118.6 119.4 119.5
15 Michigan St. 121.2 115.3 121.1 119.2
16 Tennessee 120.6 116.4 120.4 119.1
17 Stanford 118.4 117.2 118.6 118.1
18 California 118.1 113.1 118.6 116.6
19 Auburn 116.9 114.9 115.9 115.9
20 Clemson 115.3 116.5 115.2 115.7
21 Utah 117.8 112.1 117.0 115.6
22 Arkansas 117.4 111.1 116.3 114.9
23 Florida St. 114.9 115.3 113.6 114.6
24 Virginia Tech 115.4 111.8 115.8 114.3
25 North Carolina 113.7 113.7 113.3 113.6
26 West Virginia 115.0 109.6 114.4 113.0
27 Oklahoma St. 112.0 112.6 112.7 112.4
28 Arizona St. 114.7 109.4 113.2 112.4
29 Arizona 114.9 107.8 113.0 111.9
30 Mississippi St. 113.4 108.9 113.4 111.9
31 Michigan 112.8 108.9 112.1 111.3
32 Wisconsin 111.2 112.0 110.2 111.1
33 Florida 111.8 108.4 111.2 110.5
34 Missouri 111.4 108.5 110.5 110.1
35 Boise St. 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
36 Nebraska 110.9 108.3 110.5 109.9
37 North Carolina St. 109.3 111.4 108.3 109.7
38 Miami 109.0 109.9 109.4 109.4
39 BYU 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
40 Minnesota 109.3 107.5 109.1 108.6
41 Temple 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
42 Louisville 107.2 109.8 107.4 108.1
43 Texas Tech 111.0 101.6 110.8 107.8
44 Northwestern 106.8 107.8 106.8 107.1
45 Penn St. 105.7 107.8 105.9 106.5
46 Texas 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
47 Illinois 107.2 104.8 106.2 106.1
48 Memphis 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
49 South Carolina 107.3 103.6 105.8 105.6
50 Kentucky 106.3 102.9 105.6 104.9
51 Pittsburgh 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
52 Kansas St. 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
53 Colorado 105.8 101.5 105.1 104.1
54 Washington 103.7 101.9 104.1 103.2
55 Iowa 101.8 104.7 102.5 103.0
56 Duke 102.4 103.0 103.0 102.8
57 Cincinnati 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
58 Boston College 101.2 106.1 99.5 102.3
59 Virginia 103.0 100.1 102.5 101.9
60 Houston 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
61 Western Kentucky 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
62 Louisiana Tech 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
63 Navy 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
64 Toledo 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3
65 Middle Tennessee 98.3 98.0 98.0 98.1
66 Purdue 98.8 98.2 96.8 97.9
67 Bowling Green 95.3 99.8 97.4 97.5
68 Wake Forest 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
69 Air Force 94.7 99.9 94.5 96.4
70 Rutgers 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
71 Washington St. 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
72 Marshall 95.8 95.6 96.4 95.9
73 Vanderbilt 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
74 San Diego St. 93.7 98.9 94.7 95.8
75 Syracuse 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
76 Georgia Southern 94.5 96.6 95.0 95.4
77 Utah St. 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
78 Indiana 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
79 Northern Illinois 94.2 96.8 94.6 95.2
80 Western Michigan 94.6 95.1 95.5 95.1
81 Colorado St. 96.3 93.8 94.8 95.0
82 Maryland 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
83 Iowa St. 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
84 Tulsa 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
85 Ohio 91.5 96.4 93.2 93.7
86 Appalachian St. 92.0 95.0 94.1 93.7
87 Hawaii 91.8 94.0 92.4 92.7
88 Nevada 91.4 95.3 90.9 92.5
89 Oregon St. 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
90 East Carolina 90.0 94.5 90.1 91.5
91 Central Florida 89.4 93.2 90.8 91.1
92 Florida International 89.3 92.1 91.2 90.9
93 San Jose St. 90.2 92.9 89.5 90.9
94 Arkansas St. 90.5 90.3 91.5 90.8
95 New Mexico 90.6 91.4 90.0 90.7
96 Fresno St. 88.1 95.1 87.4 90.2
97 South Florida 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
98 Rice 87.8 92.6 88.6 89.7
99 SMU 88.1 92.0 88.2 89.4
100 Massachusetts 87.5 91.1 89.1 89.2
101 Tulane 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
102 Buffalo 83.8 91.3 86.4 87.2
103 UL-Lafayette 85.3 89.4 85.7 86.8
104 Southern Mississippi 86.5 87.0 85.5 86.3
105 Ball St. 84.9 87.8 85.8 86.2
106 Akron 83.0 89.5 84.4 85.6
107 Central Michigan 83.0 88.9 84.9 85.6
108 Texas St. 83.8 87.6 83.5 85.0
109 Kent St. 83.2 86.0 83.9 84.4
110 Connecticut 81.8 87.9 82.0 83.9
111 Florida Atlantic 82.0 86.2 82.6 83.6
112 Old Dominion 80.7 88.0 79.8 82.8
113 UTEP 81.8 84.8 81.6 82.7
114 North Texas 79.9 86.4 80.4 82.2
115 South Alabama 77.9 85.7 79.7 81.1
116 Army 76.9 87.6 78.2 80.9
117 UL-Monroe 81.7 78.3 81.0 80.3
118 UNLV 79.2 81.6 79.9 80.2
119 Miami (O) 76.6 83.0 76.7 78.8
120 UT-San Antonio 77.2 80.7 78.3 78.7
121 Eastern Michigan 75.0 84.9 75.0 78.3
122 Wyoming 78.0 80.0 76.2 78.1
123 Kansas 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
124 Troy 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
125 Georgia St. 75.7 74.5 75.4 75.2
126 New Mexico St. 73.6 74.8 73.5 74.0
127 Idaho 70.6 79.1 72.1 73.9
128 Charlotte 69.0 71.0 68.5 69.5

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 1-0 3-0 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
Cincinnati 0-1 2-1 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
East Carolina 0-1 1-2 90.0 94.5 90.1 91.5
Central Florida 0-0 0-3 89.4 93.2 90.8 91.1
South Florida 0-0 1-2 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
Connecticut 0-0 2-1 81.8 87.9 82.0 83.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 3-0 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
Houston 0-0 2-0 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
Navy 1-0 2-0 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
Tulsa 0-0 2-1 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
SMU 0-0 1-2 88.1 92.0 88.2 89.4
Tulane 0-0 1-2 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
             
AAC Averages     93.9 97.9 94.6 95.5
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 3-0 115.3 116.5 115.2 115.7
Florida St. 1-0 3-0 114.9 115.3 113.6 114.6
North Carolina St. 0-0 3-0 109.3 111.4 108.3 109.7
Louisville 0-1 0-3 107.2 109.8 107.4 108.1
Boston College 0-1 2-1 101.2 106.1 99.5 102.3
Wake Forest 0-1 2-1 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
Syracuse 1-0 3-0 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-0 2-1 123.0 115.0 122.6 120.2
Virginia Tech 0-0 2-1 115.4 111.8 115.8 114.3
North Carolina 0-0 2-1 113.7 113.7 113.3 113.6
Miami 0-0 3-0 109.0 109.9 109.4 109.4
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-1 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
Duke 0-0 2-1 102.4 103.0 103.0 102.8
Virginia 0-0 1-2 103.0 100.1 102.5 101.9
             
ACC Averages     107.7 108.4 107.4 107.8
             
Big 12 Conference
  Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
TCU 0-0 3-0 127.4 117.2 128.5 124.4
Baylor 0-0 2-0 123.7 119.8 124.2 122.6
Oklahoma 0-0 3-0 121.1 118.4 121.4 120.3
West Virginia 0-0 2-0 115.0 109.6 114.4 113.0
Oklahoma St. 0-0 3-0 112.0 112.6 112.7 112.4
Texas 0-0 1-2 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
Texas Tech 0-0 3-0 111.0 101.6 110.8 107.8
Kansas St. 0-0 3-0 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
Iowa St. 0-0 1-2 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
Kansas 0-0 0-2 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
             
Big 12 Averages     110.2 104.6 109.8 108.2
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 0-0 3-0 133.4 124.0 134.3 130.6
Michigan St. 0-0 3-0 121.2 115.3 121.1 119.2
Michigan 0-0 2-1 112.8 108.9 112.1 111.3
Penn St. 1-0 2-1 105.7 107.8 105.9 106.5
Rutgers 0-1 1-2 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
Indiana 0-0 3-0 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
Maryland 0-0 2-1 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 2-1 111.2 112.0 110.2 111.1
Nebraska 0-0 1-2 110.9 108.3 110.5 109.9
Minnesota 0-0 2-1 109.3 107.5 109.1 108.6
Northwestern 0-0 3-0 106.8 107.8 106.8 107.1
Illinois 0-0 2-1 107.2 104.8 106.2 106.1
Iowa 0-0 3-0 101.8 104.7 102.5 103.0
Purdue 0-0 1-2 98.8 98.2 96.8 97.9
             
Big Ten Averages     107.7 106.0 107.2 106.9
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 1-0 2-1 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-1 98.3 98.0 98.0 98.1
Marshall 0-0 2-1 95.8 95.6 96.4 95.9
Florida International 0-0 2-1 89.3 92.1 91.2 90.9
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-3 82.0 86.2 82.6 83.6
Old Dominion 0-0 2-1 80.7 88.0 79.8 82.8
Charlotte 0-1 2-1 69.0 71.0 68.5 69.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 0-1 1-2 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
Rice 1-0 2-1 87.8 92.6 88.6 89.7
Southern Mississippi 0-0 2-1 86.5 87.0 85.5 86.3
UTEP 0-0 1-2 81.8 84.8 81.6 82.7
North Texas 0-1 0-2 79.9 86.4 80.4 82.2
UT-San Antonio 0-0 0-3 77.2 80.7 78.3 78.7
             
CUSA Averages     87.0 89.2 87.3 87.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   3-0 123.4 119.4 123.9 122.2
BYU   2-1 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
Army   0-3 76.9 87.6 78.2 80.9
             
Independents Averages     103.1 104.7 104.1 104.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 0-0 1-2 95.3 99.8 97.4 97.5
Ohio 0-0 3-0 91.5 96.4 93.2 93.7
Massachusetts 0-0 0-2 87.5 91.1 89.1 89.2
Buffalo 0-0 2-1 83.8 91.3 86.4 87.2
Akron 0-0 1-2 83.0 89.5 84.4 85.6
Kent St. 0-0 1-2 83.2 86.0 83.9 84.4
Miami (O) 0-0 1-2 76.6 83.0 76.7 78.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 2-0 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-1 94.2 96.8 94.6 95.2
Western Michigan 0-0 1-2 94.6 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 1-0 2-1 84.9 87.8 85.8 86.2
Central Michigan 0-0 1-2 83.0 88.9 84.9 85.6
Eastern Michigan 0-1 1-2 75.0 84.9 75.0 78.3
             
MAC Averages     87.1 91.4 88.3 88.9
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 0-0 2-1 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
Air Force 1-0 2-1 94.7 99.9 94.5 96.4
Utah St. 0-0 1-2 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
Colorado St. 0-0 1-2 96.3 93.8 94.8 95.0
New Mexico 0-0 1-2 90.6 91.4 90.0 90.7
Wyoming 0-0 0-3 78.0 80.0 76.2 78.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-2 93.7 98.9 94.7 95.8
Hawaii 0-0 2-1 91.8 94.0 92.4 92.7
Nevada 0-0 1-2 91.4 95.3 90.9 92.5
San Jose St. 0-1 1-2 90.2 92.9 89.5 90.9
Fresno St. 0-0 1-2 88.1 95.1 87.4 90.2
UNLV 0-0 0-3 79.2 81.6 79.9 80.2
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.7 91.5 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 0-0 2-1 122.8 114.8 122.2 119.9
Stanford 1-0 2-1 118.4 117.2 118.6 118.1
California 0-0 3-0 118.1 113.1 118.6 116.6
Washington 0-0 2-1 103.7 101.9 104.1 103.2
Washington St. 0-0 2-1 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
Oregon St. 0-0 2-1 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 0-1 2-1 121.5 118.2 121.9 120.5
UCLA 0-0 3-0 122.6 116.1 120.5 119.7
Utah 0-0 3-0 117.8 112.1 117.0 115.6
Arizona St. 0-0 2-1 114.7 109.4 113.2 112.4
Arizona 0-0 3-0 114.9 107.8 113.0 111.9
Colorado 0-0 2-1 105.8 101.5 105.1 104.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     112.6 108.0 111.9 110.9
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-0 3-0 124.4 116.8 123.7 121.6
Tennessee 0-0 2-1 120.6 116.4 120.4 119.1
Florida 1-0 3-0 111.8 108.4 111.2 110.5
Missouri 0-0 3-0 111.4 108.5 110.5 110.1
South Carolina 0-2 1-2 107.3 103.6 105.8 105.6
Kentucky 1-1 2-1 106.3 102.9 105.6 104.9
Vanderbilt 0-1 1-2 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ole Miss 1-0 3-0 130.2 123.8 128.8 127.6
LSU 2-0 2-0 125.8 121.8 125.6 124.4
Alabama 0-1 2-1 125.0 123.3 124.6 124.3
Texas A&M 0-0 3-0 120.4 118.6 119.4 119.5
Auburn 0-1 2-1 116.9 114.9 115.9 115.9
Arkansas 0-0 1-2 117.4 111.1 116.3 114.9
Mississippi St. 0-1 2-1 113.4 108.9 113.4 111.9
             
SEC Averages     116.4 112.2 115.6 114.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 0-0 2-1 94.5 96.6 95.0 95.4
Appalachian St. 0-0 1-1 92.0 95.0 94.1 93.7
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 90.5 90.3 91.5 90.8
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-1 85.3 89.4 85.7 86.8
Texas St. 0-0 1-2 83.8 87.6 83.5 85.0
South Alabama 0-0 2-1 77.9 85.7 79.7 81.1
UL-Monroe 0-0 1-1 81.7 78.3 81.0 80.3
Troy 0-0 1-2 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
Georgia St. 1-0 1-2 75.7 74.5 75.4 75.2
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-3 73.6 74.8 73.5 74.0
Idaho 0-0 1-2 70.6 79.1 72.1 73.9
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.9 84.2 82.6 82.9
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 116.4 112.2 115.6 114.7
2 Pac-12 112.6 108.0 111.9 110.9
3 Big 12 110.2 104.6 109.8 108.2
4 ACC 107.7 108.4 107.4 107.8
5 Big Ten 107.7 106.0 107.2 106.9
6 Independents 103.1 104.7 104.1 104.0
7 AAC 93.9 97.9 94.6 95.5
8 MWC 91.8 93.7 91.5 92.3
9 MAC 87.1 91.4 88.3 88.9
10 CUSA 87.0 89.2 87.3 87.8
11 Sun Belt 81.9 84.2 82.6 82.9

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Boise St. 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
2 BYU 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
3 Temple 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
4 Memphis 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
5 Cincinnati 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
6 Houston 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
7 Western Kentucky 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
8 Louisiana Tech 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
9 Navy 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
10 Toledo 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
10 Wake Forest 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
9 Rutgers 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
8 Washington St. 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
7 Vanderbilt 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
6 Syracuse 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
5 Indiana 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
4 Maryland 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
3 Iowa St. 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
2 Oregon St. 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
1 Kansas 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 97.1
2 South Dakota St. 94.1
3 North Dakota St. 92.3
4 Coastal Carolina 89.5
5 Chattanooga 89.0
6 Harvard 88.6
7 Illinois St. 88.2
8 Northern Iowa 88.1
9 Portland St. 87.8
10 James Madison 87.5

 

PiRate Speculation on Playoff Teams

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 Ole Miss
3 TCU
4 Notre Dame

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 24        
Memphis Cincinnati 6.4 5.2 6.9
         
Friday, September 25   PiRate  Mean  Bias
Virginia Boise St. -5.7 -3.1 -5.5
Oregon St. Stanford -22.6 -23.1 -23.9
         
Saturday, September 26   PiRate  Mean  Bias
Connecticut Navy -14.0 -11.0 -14.3
Duke Georgia Tech -18.1 -9.5 -17.1
East Carolina Virginia Tech -22.4 -14.3 -22.7
Michigan BYU 6.9 4.9 4.8
Michigan St. Central Michigan 40.2 28.4 38.2
Purdue Bowling Green 6.0 0.9 1.9
Rutgers Kansas 21.6 20.8 22.0
South Carolina Central Florida 20.9 13.4 18.0
Syracuse LSU -28.4 -20.1 -28.8
Nebraska Southern Miss. 27.4 24.3 28.0
Wake Forest Indiana 3.2 6.3 2.4
Boston College Northern Illinois 10.0 12.3 7.9
Arkansas (Arlington, TX) Texas A&M -3.0 -7.5 -3.1
Louisiana Tech Florida Int’l 15.0 9.1 13.9
West Virginia Maryland 21.7 18.6 22.2
Baylor Rice 37.9 29.2 37.6
Arizona UCLA -4.7 -5.3 -4.5
Arizona St. USC -3.8 -5.8 -5.7
Oregon Utah 8.0 5.7 8.2
Wyoming New Mexico -10.1 -8.9 -11.3
Florida Tennessee -5.8 -5.0 -6.2
Houston Texas St. 16.4 20.7 19.4
Notre Dame Massachusetts 38.9 31.3 37.8
Ohio St. Western Michigan 41.8 31.9 41.8
Penn St. San Diego St. 16.0 12.9 15.2
Iowa North Texas 24.9 21.3 25.1
Minnesota Ohio U 20.8 14.1 18.9
Texas Oklahoma St. -1.9 -3.8 -3.1
Old Dominion Appalachian St. -8.8 -4.5 -11.8
Western Kentucky Miami (O) 26.8 18.0 27.8
Buffalo Nevada -3.6 0.0 -0.5
Kent St. Marshall -10.1 -7.1 -10.0
Alabama UL-Monroe 46.3 48.0 46.6
Illinois Middle Tennessee 11.9 9.8 11.2
Texas Tech TCU -13.4 -12.6 -14.7
Washington California -11.4 -8.2 -11.5
Eastern Michigan Army 0.6 -0.2 -0.7
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 35.0 34.6 34.7
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -10.5 -12.7 -11.6
UT-San Antonio Colorado St. -16.6 -10.6 -14.3
UL-Lafayette Akron 5.3 1.9 4.3
Toledo Arkansas St. 12.2 10.4 12.1
Kentucky Missouri -2.1 -2.6 -1.9
Auburn Mississippi St. 6.5 9.0 5.5
Northwestern Ball St. 24.4 22.5 23.5
South Alabama North Carolina St. -28.4 -22.7 -25.6
Wisconsin Hawaii 23.4 22.0 21.8
Idaho Georgia Southern -20.9 -14.5 -19.9
San Jose St. Fresno St. 4.6 0.3 0.6
         
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 4 PiRate    
Georgia Southern U 50    
North Carolina Delaware 35    
Colorado Nicholls St. 43    
Louisville Samford 23    
SMU James Madison 7    
UTEP Incarnate Word 18    
UNLV Idaho St. 15    

 

December 31, 2014

PiRate Ratings FBS Playoffs Computer Simulation–Simper Bowl VIII

We apologize for not having this post published when it was supposed to come out.  Major computer issues with substantial losses of data forced us to run an end around play to get back online.

Today, we are combining our annual Simper Bowl computer simulated playoffs (not like the actual playoffs–read prior postings under this category for a complete explanation) with the 100 simulations run for both actual Playoff games.

First, let’s start with our Simper Bowl Results.

In Simper Bowl VIII, #3-seed TCU squared off against #5-seed Baylor in our version of our 12-team playoff.  The game was played in Arlington, TX, and due to the proximity of both clubs, no home-field advantage was added, as we felt that both teams would have an equal amount of fans, and TCU was not all that much closer to the stadium to earn any extra advantage.

AND YOUR 2014 SIMPER BOWL VIII CHAMPION IS……………………

TCU!  Congratulations to the Horned Frogs, the team the computer simulator judged to be the best team in the nation.

Final Score: TCU 38  Baylor 26

STATS

First Downs: TC 27  BA 20

Rushing: TC 45-203  BA 23-67

Passing: TC 226  BA 291

Passes: TC 20-32-0  BA 28-51-1

Play-Yds: TC 77-429  BA 74-358

After 1st Qtr.: TCU 10  Baylor 6

Half: TCU 17  Baylor 16

After 3rd Qtr.: TCU 31  Baylor 19

********************************************

100 Sims of Actual Rose and Sugar Bowls

We simulated both Playoff games 100 times.  Here are the results.

Rose Bowl

#2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida St.

Outright Wins: Florida St. 57  Oregon 43

Average Score: Florida St. 24.9  Oregon 22.5

Outlier A: Florida St. 40  Oregon 22

Outlier B: Oregon 45  Florida St. 20

Sugar Bowl

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Ohio St.

Outright Wins: Alabama 89  Ohio St. 11

Average Score: Alabama 32.6  Ohio St. 21.7

Outlier A: Alabama 44  Ohio St. 13

Outlier B: Ohio St. 29  Alabama 23

December 19, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Final Four

The semifinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and we now know who will play for the Simper Bowl title. If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

In the quarterfinal round, #1 Alabama knocked off #8 Mississippi St. 30-17; #7 Ole Miss upset #2 Oregon 24-22; #3 TCU dismissed #6 Florida St. 42-24; and #5 Baylor won at #4 Ohio St. 40-38/
The format for the Final Four is identical to the actual FBS Playoffs. In today’s simulation, we have #7 Ole Miss facing #3 TCU in the Rose Bowl, followed by #1 Alabama and #5 Baylor facing off in the Sugar Bowl.

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.
Rose Bowl
#3 TCU 27 #7 Ole Miss 10

Stats
First Downs: TC 19 OM 13
Rushing: TC 37-149 OM 32-89
Passing: TC 197 OM 239
Passes: TC 19-33-0 OM 21-39-4
Play-Yds: TC 70-346 OM 71-328
After 1st Qtr: TC 0 OM 0
Half: TC 7 OM 7
After 3rd Qtr: TC 20 OM 7

Sugar Bowl
#5 Baylor 26 #1 Alabama 24

Stats
First Downs BA 20 AL 19
Rushing: BA 26-79 AL 35-243
Passing: BA 419 AL 238
Passes: BA 35-53-1 AL 19-34-3
Play-Yds: BA 79-498 AL 69-481
After 1st Qtr: AL 10 BA 3
Half: AL 17 BA 16
After 3rd Qtr: BA 19 AL 17

And lo and behold, look who will be facing off in Simper Bowl VIII? It’s the two Big 12 teams that were not invited to the real inaugural playoffs. The simulator says that TCU and Baylor are the two best teams. As Former Texas Governor Rick Perry might say, “Oops!”

Return to this site on Tuesday, December 23 for the results of the simulation for the National Championship between Baylor and TCU.

December 16, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Elite 8 Round

The quarterfinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and unlike the first round, there were some surprises.

If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:
https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

Here is the schedule for today’s quarterfinal round games:
#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
#6 Florida State at #3 T C U
#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio State

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.

#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
Final Score: Alabama 30 Mississippi St. 17

Stats
First Downs: AL 24 MS 16
Rushing: AL 41-209 MS 29-137
Passing: AL 226 MS 168
Passes: AL 20-34-1 MS 19-29-2
Play-Yds: AL 75-435 MS 58-305
After 1st Qtr: AL 6 MS 0
Half: AL 16 MS 7
After 3rd Qtr: AL 23 MS 10

 

#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
Final Score: Ole Miss 24 Oregon 22

Stats
First Downs: OM 19 OR 19
Rushing: OM 28-118 OR 41-189
Passing: OM 309 OR 231
Passes: OM 28-44-1 OR 24-45-1
Play-Yds: OM 72-427 OR 86-420
After 1st Qtr: OM 7 OR 6
Half: OM 21 OR 12
After 3rd Qtr: OM 21 OR 19

 

#6 Florida St. at #3 TCU
Final Score: TCU 42 Florida St. 24

Stats
First Downs: TC 26 FS 18
Rushing: TC 34-177 FS 30-99
Passing: TC 289 FS 308
Passes: TC 25-38-0 FS 26-49-3
Play-Yds: TC 72-466 FS 79-407
After 1st Qtr: TC 14 FS 0
Half: TC 28 FS 14
After 3rd Qtr: TC 42 FS 24

 

#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio St.
Final Score: Baylor 40 Ohio St. 38

Stats
First Downs BA 30 OS 23
Rushing: BA 28-109 OS 45-313
Passing: BA 484 OS 210
Passes: BA 38-51-0 OS 18-29-1
Play-Yds: BA 79-593 OS 74-523
After 1st Qtr: OS 17 BA 10
Half: OS 31 BA 19
After 3rd Qtr: OS 38 BA 26

The Final Four Is Now Set. Moving on to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl, we have #3 TCU and #7 Ole Miss. Facing off in the Sugar Bowl, #5 Baylor challenges top-seeded Alabama.
Return to this site on Friday, December 19 for the results of that simulation.

December 12, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs–1st Round

The opening round of the 2014-15 computer simulated college football playoffs has been played, and there were a couple of really close games along with two games that were not all that close.

If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 face off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 receive byes.

Here are the results of those four games.

#12 Kansas State at #5 Baylor
Final Score: Baylor 38 Kansas State 24

Stats

First Downs: BU 24, KS 19

Rushing: BU 34-188, KS 41-161

Passing: BU 372, KS 211

Passes: BU 25-38-1, KS 18-33-1

Play-Yds: BU 72-560, KS 74-372

After 1st qtr: Baylor 10-0

Half: Baylor 17-7

After 3rd qtr: Baylor 31-10

#11 Auburn at #6 Florida State
Final Score: Florida State 30 Auburn 28

Stats

First Downs: FS 23, AU 25

Rushing: FS: 29-106, AU 48-279

Passing: FS 402, AU 209

Passes: FS 34-46-2, AU 17-27-1

Play-Yds: FS 75-508, AU 75-488

After 1st qtr: Auburn 7-0

Half: Auburn 14-7

After 3rd qtr: Auburn 28-20

#10 Georgia at #7 Ole Miss
Final Score: Ole Miss 35 Georgia 31 2 ot

Stats

First Downs: OM 23, GA 20

Rushing: OM 34-152, GA 42-273

Passing: OM 236, GA 171

Passes: OM 21-37-1, GA 15-27-2

Play-Yds: OM 71-388, GA 69-444

After 1st qtr: Tied 7-7

Half: Georgia 14-10

After 3rd qtr: Georgia 14-13

After 4th qtr: Tied 21-21

After 1st OT: Tied 28-28

#9 Michigan State at #8 Mississippi State
Final Score: Mississippi State 45 Michigan St. 17

Stats

First Downs: MSS 32, MCH 16

Rushing: MSS 49-265, MCH 25-69

Passing: MSS 217, MCH 221

Passes: MSS 19-32-0, MCH 24-43-2

Play-Yds: MSS 81-482, MCH 68-290

After 1st qtr: Mississippi St. 14-0

Half: Mississippi St. 21-3

After 3rd qtr: Mississippi St. 42-10

The Quarterfinals are now set and will be simulated Tuesday, December 16, 2014. Here are the pairings for the Elite 8.

#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
#6 Florida State at #3 T C U
#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio State

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