PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Welcome to the inaugural post for the 2019-2020 College Basketball Season.  In past years, we did not issue power ratings until past January 1, because our ratings need a substantial sample size before the variance is negligible.

For those of you new to our basketball ratings, they are nothing like our football ratings.  We use an algorithm based on the Four Factors of basketball combined with schedule strength.  We spent a couple years testing out a system and tweaking the variables until we ended up with what we hope is accurate enough ratings to predict game outcome and maybe, if lucky, a comparison to the Nevada Spread.

Our inspiration comes from baseball sabermetric genius Tom Tango aka Tango Tiger, who we would really love to meet one day after having traded some ideas via the Baseball-Fever site many years ago.  Tango created the Weighted On-Base Average, which is about as positively correlated to run scoring among the well-known sabermetric runs formulas.

Our basketball ratings apply weights to the four factors and then adjust these weights to schedule strength.  It takes about 1,750 games before schedule strength adjustment variance lowers to a minimum number in our calculating loop.  

Since we are beginning our ratings’ publication early this year, we have not yet decided on a set schedule for when we will release updated ratings.  

Starting in January, this is what we will present weekly in our basketball category.

1. Twice Weekly Power Rating Updates

2. Predicted Spreads of Games Played Between Power Conference Teams

3. Weekly Bracketology Updates

4. Occasional Editorial Or Other Written Information

We went back and looked at what our most read posts were for the 2018-19 season, and by far you chose our feature naming the top 20 candidates to move up to Power Conference head coaching jobs.  In that post, we rated Eric Musselman, then of Nevada, as not only the top coach that could potentially move up to a Power Conference job, we named him the overall best college basketball coach at the present time, ahead of all the legends still coaching.

We based that accolade on the fact that Musselman has improved the overall efficiency of close to 100% of the players he has coached at the college level that have also played for other Division 1 Head Coaches.

Musselman is living up to this accolade in his first year at Arkansas, where the Razorback players that played for another Division 1 Head Coach (either players he inherited at Arkansas or transfers from other teams) have enjoyed massive improvement in total efficiency, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

We will post a new list sometime in February.  Believe it or not, it takes longer to study efficiency ratings for players from one year to the next than it does to figure all the power ratings for 353 teams.

Here are our Opening PiRate Ratings for Christmas Eve, 2019

Power Ratings  12/24/19

 

#	Team	Conference	PiRate
1	Duke	Atlantic Coast	120.7
2	Kansas	Big 12	120.1
3	Ohio St.	Big Ten	119.6
4	Michigan St.	Big Ten	118.9
5	Gonzaga	West Coast	118.4
6	Louisville	Atlantic Coast	117.7
7	Maryland	Big Ten	116.3
8	Arizona	Pac-12	115.9
9	Baylor	Big 12	115.3
10	Dayton	Atlantic 10	115.0
11	Oregon	Pac-12	114.9
12	Butler	Big East	114.8
13	Auburn	Southeastern	114.6
14	Michigan	Big Ten	114.6
15	Florida St.	Atlantic Coast	114.3
16	Kentucky	Southeastern	114.0
17	Memphis	American Athletic	113.7
18	Seton Hall	Big East	113.6
19	San Diego St.	Mountain West	113.5
20	Villanova	Big East	113.5
21	Purdue	Big Ten	113.3
22	Iowa	Big Ten	113.3
23	Penn St.	Big Ten	113.1
24	West Virginia	Big 12	112.7
25	Marquette	Big East	112.6
26	BYU	West Coast	112.5
27	Florida	Southeastern	112.3
28	Texas Tech	Big 12	112.3
29	Indiana	Big Ten	112.1
30	Wichita St.	Big East	112.1
31	Houston	American Athletic	112.0
32	Xavier	Big East	111.8
33	Arkansas	Southeastern	111.7
34	Tennessee	Southeastern	111.6
35	LSU	Southeastern	111.5
36	Iowa St.	Big 12	111.5
37	North Carolina St.	Atlantic Coast	111.5
38	Utah St.	Mountain West	111.4
39	Saint Mary’s	West Coast	111.4
40	North Carolina	Atlantic Coast	111.4
41	Georgetown	Big East	111.3
42	Washington	Pac-12	111.1
43	Virginia	Atlantic Coast	111.1
44	Colorado	Pac-12	111.0
45	Minnesota	Big Ten	110.8
46	Illinois	Big Ten	110.8
47	Creighton	Big East	110.6
48	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	110.5
49	VCU	Atlantic 10	110.1
50	Rutgers	Big Ten	110.1
51	Oklahoma	Big 12	110.0
52	Temple	American Athletic	109.7
53	Wisconsin	Big Ten	109.7
54	Missouri	Southeastern	109.6
55	Alabama	Southeastern	109.4
56	Connecticut	American Athletic	109.2
57	Cincinnati	American Athletic	109.1
58	Stanford	Pac-12	109.0
59	Notre Dame	Atlantic Coast	108.8
60	Syracuse	Atlantic Coast	108.6
61	Mississippi St.	Southeastern	108.6
62	USC	Pac-12	108.5
63	Texas	Big 12	108.3
64	East Tennessee St.	Southern	108.3
65	Virginia Tech	Atlantic Coast	108.0
66	Duquesne	Atlantic 10	107.9
67	Liberty	Atlantic Sun	107.9
68	TCU	Big 12	107.9
69	DePaul	Big East	107.8
70	Yale	Ivy	107.7
71	Davidson	Atlantic 10	107.7
72	Oregon St.	Pac-12	107.7
73	St. John’s	Big East	107.5
74	Arizona St.	Pac-12	107.3
75	UNC Greensboro	Southern	107.2
76	Mississippi	Southeastern	107.1
77	Belmont	Ohio Valley	107.1
78	Pittsburgh	Atlantic Coast	107.1
79	Providence	Big East	107.0
80	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	107.0
81	Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	107.0
82	Richmond	Atlantic 10	107.0
83	Northern Iowa	Missouri Valley	106.9
84	Furman	Southern	106.8
85	Miami (Fla.)	Atlantic Coast	106.8
86	Georgia	Southeastern	106.7
87	Vermont	American East	106.6
88	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	106.3
89	Kansas St.	Big 12	106.1
90	New Mexico	Mountain West	106.1
91	South Carolina	Southeastern	105.9
92	Clemson	Atlantic Coast	105.7
93	San Francisco	West Coast	105.6
94	Nevada	Mountain West	105.5
95	SMU	American Athletic	105.4
96	Harvard	Ivy	105.2
97	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10	105.1
98	Toledo	Mid-American	105.1
99	Kent St.	Mid-American	105.0
100	Wake Forest	Atlantic Coast	104.9
101	New Mexico St.	Western Athletic	104.8
102	Utah	Pac-12	104.8
103	Boise St.	Mountain West	104.6
104	Northwestern	Big Ten	104.5
105	Akron	Mid-American	104.5
106	UCLA	Pac-12	104.5
107	Georgia Tech	Atlantic Coast	104.4
108	Central Florida	American Athletic	104.3
109	Penn	Ivy	103.9
110	Wright St.	Horizon	103.8
111	Loyola (Chi.)	Missouri Valley	103.8
112	Ball St.	Mid-American	103.8
113	South Florida	American Athletic	103.6
114	Georgia St.	Sun Belt	103.3
115	Fresno St.	Mountain West	103.2
116	George Mason	Atlantic 10	103.1
117	Northern Colorado	Big Sky	102.7
118	Bradley	Missouri Valley	102.7
119	Northern Kentucky	Horizon	102.7
120	UC Irvine	Big West	102.6
121	Murray St.	Ohio Valley	102.6
122	Vanderbilt	Southeastern	102.6
123	Tulsa	American Athletic	102.5
124	Washington St.	Pac-12	102.5
125	North Texas	Conference USA	102.4
126	Radford	Big South	102.3
127	Nebraska	Big Ten	102.3
128	Eastern Washington	Big Sky	102.2
129	Boston College	Atlantic Coast	102.2
130	St. Bonaventure	Atlantic 10	102.1
131	Indiana St.	Missouri Valley	102.1
132	Buffalo	Mid-American	102.0
133	Wofford	Southern	101.9
134	Stephen F. Austin	Southland	101.9
135	Oral Roberts	Summit	101.8
136	UT Arlington	Southland	101.7
137	Hofstra	Colonial Athletic	101.6
138	Colorado St.	Mountain West	101.6
139	Appalachian St.	Sun Belt	101.6
140	Texas St.	Sun Belt	101.6
141	UTEP	Conference USA	101.5
142	Colgate	Patriot	101.5
143	Rider	Metro Atlantic	101.4
144	Missouri St.	Missouri Valley	101.4
145	Bowling Green	Mid-American	101.2
146	Northeastern	Colonial Athletic	101.1
147	Texas A&M	Southeastern	101.0
148	Pepperdine	West Coast	100.9
149	Drake	Missouri Valley	100.9
150	Charleston	Colonial Athletic	100.8
151	Towson	Colonial Athletic	100.8
152	La Salle	Atlantic 10	100.7
153	Stony Brook	American East	100.7
154	UC Santa Barbara	Big West	100.6
155	North Dakota St.	Summit	100.5
156	Southern Utah	Big Sky	100.5
157	Santa Clara	West Coast	100.4
158	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	100.3
159	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	100.2
160	UAB	Conference USA	100.2
161	Florida Int’l.	Conference USA	100.2
162	California Baptist	Western Athletic	100.1
163	Valparaiso	Missouri Valley	100.1
164	Hawaii	Big West	100.0
165	Little Rock	Sun Belt	100.0
166	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	99.9
167	Delaware	Colonial Athletic	99.9
168	Western Carolina	Southern	99.9
169	Charlotte	Conference USA	99.6
170	Central Michigan	Mid-American	99.6
171	Sam Houston St.	Southland	99.6
172	Pacific	West Coast	99.6
173	UNLV	Mountain West	99.5
174	Winthrop	Big South	99.5
175	Ohio	Mid-American	99.4
176	San Diego	West Coast	99.4
177	California	Pac-12	99.4
178	South Dakota St.	Summit	99.3
179	Old Dominion	Conference USA	99.2
180	Marshall	Conference USA	99.0
181	North Florida	Atlantic Sun	99.0
182	South Dakota	Summit	98.9
183	William & Mary	Colonial Athletic	98.9
184	St. Francis (PA)	Northeast	98.8
185	Massachusetts	Atlantic 10	98.7
186	South Alabama	Sun Belt	98.7
187	Oakland	Horizon	98.7
188	Sacred Heart	Northeast	98.7
189	Tulane	American Athletic	98.6
190	Southern Illinois	Missouri Valley	98.6
191	Siena	Metro Atlantic	98.4
192	Dartmouth	Ivy	98.3
193	Iona	Metro Atlantic	98.2
194	Rice	Conference USA	98.1
195	Lafayette	Patriot	98.1
196	Eastern Illinois	Ohio Valley	98.1
197	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	98.1
198	Sacramento St.	Big Sky	98.1
199	Austin Peay	Ohio Valley	98.0
200	UTSA	Conference USA	98.0
201	Omaha	Summit	97.8
202	Evansville	Missouri Valley	97.8
203	Loyola Marymount	West Coast	97.8
204	Lipscomb	Atlantic Sun	97.7
205	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	97.6
206	Miami (O)	Mid-American	97.5
207	Portland St.	Big Sky	97.4
208	Air Force	Mountain West	97.4
209	Montana	Big Sky	97.4
210	Loyola (MD)	Patriot	97.4
211	Illinois St.	Missouri Valley	97.3
212	Chattanooga	Southern	97.2
213	Green Bay	Horizon	97.1
214	Samford	Southern	97.0
215	Princeton	Ivy	97.0
216	American	Patriot	96.9
217	Boston U	Patriot	96.9
218	Missouri-KC	Western Athletic	96.9
219	Bryant	Northeast	96.7
220	UC Riverside	Big West	96.7
221	Grand Canyon	Western Athletic	96.6
222	North Dakota	Summit	96.5
223	Columbia	Ivy	96.4
224	Arkansas St.	Sun Belt	96.3
225	Bucknell	Patriot	96.2
226	Nicholls St.	Southland	96.1
227	George Washington	Atlantic 10	96.1
228	Gardner-Webb	Big South	96.1
229	Canisius	Metro Atlantic	96.0
230	Brown	Ivy	96.0
231	Tennessee St.	Ohio Valley	96.0
232	Jacksonville	Atlantic Sun	96.0
233	Youngstown St.	Horizon	95.9
234	Illinois Chicago	Horizon	95.9
235	Albany	American East	95.9
236	Fairfield	Metro Atlantic	95.8
237	Seattle	Western Athletic	95.8
238	Monmouth	Metro Atlantic	95.8
239	Abilene Christian	Southland	95.8
240	James Madison	Colonial Athletic	95.7
241	Purdue Fort Wayne	Summit	95.7
242	Campbell	Big South	95.6
243	Prairie View A&M	Southwestern Athl.	95.6
244	UMass Lowell	American East	95.6
245	Montana St.	Big Sky	95.6
246	Cal St. Bakersfield	Western Athletic	95.6
247	Northern Arizona	Big Sky	95.5
248	Navy	Patriot	95.5
249	Long Island	Northeast	95.5
250	Drexel	Colonial Athletic	95.4
251	Southern Miss.	Conference USA	95.4
252	Saint Joseph’s	Atlantic 10	95.3
253	East Carolina	American Athletic	95.2
254	Milwaukee	Horizon	95.2
255	Fordham	Atlantic 10	95.2
256	Jacksonville St.	Ohio Valley	95.2
257	UC Davis	Big West	95.1
258	Lehigh	Patriot	95.0
259	UNC Asheville	Big South	94.9
260	Louisiana	Sun Belt	94.8
261	Utah Valley	Western Athletic	94.8
262	Quinnipiac	Metro Atlantic	94.8
263	McNeese St.	Southland	94.7
264	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	94.6
265	Lamar	Southland	94.6
266	Texas Southern	Southwestern Athl.	94.4
267	Western Michigan	Mid-American	94.4
268	Louisiana Monroe	Sun Belt	94.3
269	Mercer	Southern	94.3
270	Weber St.	Big Sky	94.3
271	Cal St. Northridge	Big West	94.2
272	Troy	Sun Belt	94.1
273	UT Rio Grande Valley	Western Athletic	94.0
274	Portland	West Coast	93.9
275	Manhattan	Metro Atlantic	93.9
276	UM Baltimore Co.	American East	93.8
277	Morehead St.	Ohio Valley	93.8
278	NJIT	Atlantic Sun	93.8
279	VMI	Southern	93.7
280	New Orleans	Southland	93.5
281	New Hampshire	American East	93.3
282	Robert Morris	Northeast	93.2
283	Cal St. Fullerton	Big West	93.2
284	Cornell	Ivy	93.2
285	Mount St. Mary’s	Northeast	93.2
286	Saint Peter’s	Metro Atlantic	92.8
287	Bethune Cookman	Mideastern Athletic	92.5
288	Merrimack	Northeast	92.4
289	North Alabama	Atlantic Sun	92.3
290	Texas A&M CC	Southland	92.2
291	Grambling	Southwestern Athl.	92.1
292	Long Beach St.	Big West	91.9
293	Army	Patriot	91.9
294	Norfolk St.	Mideastern Athletic	91.9
295	Wyoming	Mountain West	91.8
296	Citadel	Southern	91.8
297	Fairleigh Dickinson	Northeast	91.6
298	Idaho St.	Big Sky	91.6
299	UNC Wilmington	Colonial Athletic	91.5
300	Detroit	Horizon	91.4
301	Longwood	Big South	91.3
302	UT-Martin	Ohio Valley	91.2
303	Coppin St.	Mideastern Athletic	91.2
304	SE Missouri	Ohio Valley	91.1
305	Western Illinois	Summit	91.0
306	IUPUI	Horizon	90.8
307	Morgan St.	Mideastern Athletic	90.8
308	Charleston Southern	Big South	90.5
309	Wagner	Northeast	90.3
310	St. Francis (NY)	Northeast	90.3
311	Elon	Colonial Athletic	90.1
312	Niagara	Metro Atlantic	90.0
313	Binghamton	American East	90.0
314	Central Arkansas	Southland	89.9
315	Hampton	Big South	89.8
316	Cleveland St.	Horizon	89.8
317	Denver	Summit	89.6
318	Hartford	American East	89.6
319	Alcorn St.	Southwestern Athl.	89.6
320	North Carolina Central	Mideastern Athletic	89.5
321	Cal Poly	Big West	89.3
322	North Carolina A&T	Mideastern Athletic	89.2
323	Florida Gulf Coast	Atlantic Sun	89.2
324	Florida A&M	Mideastern Athletic	89.2
325	Jackson St.	Southwestern Athl.	89.1
326	Eastern Kentucky	Ohio Valley	89.1
327	Stetson	Atlantic Sun	89.0
328	San Jose St.	Mountain West	89.0
329	Tennessee Tech	Ohio Valley	89.0
330	Southern	Southwestern Athl.	88.9
331	SE Louisiana	Southland	88.9
332	Idaho	Big Sky	88.5
333	Houston Baptist	Southland	88.3
334	Holy Cross	Patriot	88.2
335	Maine	American East	87.7
336	Alabama St.	Southwestern Athl.	87.3
337	Marist	Metro Atlantic	87.3
338	USC Upstate	Big South	87.3
339	South Carolina St.	Mideastern Athletic	86.7
340	High Point	Big South	86.5
341	Alabama A&M	Southwestern Athl.	86.4
342	Presbyterian	Big South	86.4
343	Kennesaw St.	Atlantic Sun	85.8
344	Northwestern St.	Southland	85.7
345	SIU Edwardsville	Ohio Valley	85.1
346	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Southwestern Athl.	84.8
347	Howard	Mideastern Athletic	83.9
348	Incarnate Word	Southland	83.4
349	MD Eastern Shore	Mideastern Athletic	82.1
350	Central Connecticut	Northeast	81.6
351	Delaware St.	Mideastern Athletic	81.2
352	Chicago St.	Western Athletic	80.3
353	Mississippi Valley St.	Southwestern Athl.	77.5

 

Alphabetical

 

#	Team	Conf.	PiRate
1	Abilene Christian	Southland	95.8
2	Air Force	Mountain West	97.4
3	Akron	Mid-American	104.5
4	Alabama	Southeastern	109.4
5	Alabama A&M	Southwestern Athl.	86.4
6	Alabama St.	Southwestern Athl.	87.3
7	Albany	American East	95.9
8	Alcorn St.	Southwestern Athl.	89.6
9	American	Patriot	96.9
10	Appalachian St.	Sun Belt	101.6
11	Arizona	Pac-12	115.9
12	Arizona St.	Pac-12	107.3
13	Arkansas	Southeastern	111.7
14	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Southwestern Athl.	84.8
15	Arkansas St.	Sun Belt	96.3
16	Army	Patriot	91.9
17	Auburn	Southeastern	114.6
18	Austin Peay	Ohio Valley	98.0
19	Ball St.	Mid-American	103.8
20	Baylor	Big 12	115.3
21	Belmont	Ohio Valley	107.1
22	Bethune Cookman	Mideastern Athletic	92.5
23	Binghamton	American East	90.0
24	Boise St.	Mountain West	104.6
25	Boston College	Atlantic Coast	102.2
26	Boston U	Patriot	96.9
27	Bowling Green	Mid-American	101.2
28	Bradley	Missouri Valley	102.7
29	Brown	Ivy	96.0
30	Bryant	Northeast	96.7
31	Bucknell	Patriot	96.2
32	Buffalo	Mid-American	102.0
33	Butler	Big East	114.8
34	BYU	West Coast	112.5
35	Cal Poly	Big West	89.3
36	Cal St. Bakersfield	Western Athletic	95.6
37	Cal St. Fullerton	Big West	93.2
38	Cal St. Northridge	Big West	94.2
39	California	Pac-12	99.4
40	California Baptist	Western Athletic	100.1
41	Campbell	Big South	95.6
42	Canisius	Metro Atlantic	96.0
43	Central Arkansas	Southland	89.9
44	Central Connecticut	Northeast	81.6
45	Central Florida	American Athletic	104.3
46	Central Michigan	Mid-American	99.6
47	Charleston	Colonial Athletic	100.8
48	Charleston Southern	Big South	90.5
49	Charlotte	Conference USA	99.6
50	Chattanooga	Southern	97.2
51	Chicago St.	Western Athletic	80.3
52	Cincinnati	American Athletic	109.1
53	Citadel	Southern	91.8
54	Clemson	Atlantic Coast	105.7
55	Cleveland St.	Horizon	89.8
56	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	100.2
57	Colgate	Patriot	101.5
58	Colorado	Pac-12	111.0
59	Colorado St.	Mountain West	101.6
60	Columbia	Ivy	96.4
61	Connecticut	American Athletic	109.2
62	Coppin St.	Mideastern Athletic	91.2
63	Cornell	Ivy	93.2
64	Creighton	Big East	110.6
65	Dartmouth	Ivy	98.3
66	Davidson	Atlantic 10	107.7
67	Dayton	Atlantic 10	115.0
68	Delaware	Colonial Athletic	99.9
69	Delaware St.	Mideastern Athletic	81.2
70	Denver	Summit	89.6
71	DePaul	Big East	107.8
72	Detroit	Horizon	91.4
73	Drake	Missouri Valley	100.9
74	Drexel	Colonial Athletic	95.4
75	Duke	Atlantic Coast	120.7
76	Duquesne	Atlantic 10	107.9
77	East Carolina	American Athletic	95.2
78	East Tennessee St.	Southern	108.3
79	Eastern Illinois	Ohio Valley	98.1
80	Eastern Kentucky	Ohio Valley	89.1
81	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	98.1
82	Eastern Washington	Big Sky	102.2
83	Elon	Colonial Athletic	90.1
84	Evansville	Missouri Valley	97.8
85	Fairfield	Metro Atlantic	95.8
86	Fairleigh Dickinson	Northeast	91.6
87	Florida	Southeastern	112.3
88	Florida A&M	Mideastern Athletic	89.2
89	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	97.6
90	Florida Gulf Coast	Atlantic Sun	89.2
91	Florida Int’l.	Conference USA	100.2
92	Florida St.	Atlantic Coast	114.3
93	Fordham	Atlantic 10	95.2
94	Fresno St.	Mountain West	103.2
95	Furman	Southern	106.8
96	Gardner-Webb	Big South	96.1
97	George Mason	Atlantic 10	103.1
98	George Washington	Atlantic 10	96.1
99	Georgetown	Big East	111.3
100	Georgia	Southeastern	106.7
101	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	100.3
102	Georgia St.	Sun Belt	103.3
103	Georgia Tech	Atlantic Coast	104.4
104	Gonzaga	West Coast	118.4
105	Grambling	Southwestern Athl.	92.1
106	Grand Canyon	Western Athletic	96.6
107	Green Bay	Horizon	97.1
108	Hampton	Big South	89.8
109	Hartford	American East	89.6
110	Harvard	Ivy	105.2
111	Hawaii	Big West	100.0
112	High Point	Big South	86.5
113	Hofstra	Colonial Athletic	101.6
114	Holy Cross	Patriot	88.2
115	Houston	American Athletic	112.0
116	Houston Baptist	Southland	88.3
117	Howard	Mideastern Athletic	83.9
118	Idaho	Big Sky	88.5
119	Idaho St.	Big Sky	91.6
120	Illinois	Big Ten	110.8
121	Illinois Chicago	Horizon	95.9
122	Illinois St.	Missouri Valley	97.3
123	Incarnate Word	Southland	83.4
124	Indiana	Big Ten	112.1
125	Indiana St.	Missouri Valley	102.1
126	Iona	Metro Atlantic	98.2
127	Iowa	Big Ten	113.3
128	Iowa St.	Big 12	111.5
129	IUPUI	Horizon	90.8
130	Jackson St.	Southwestern Athl.	89.1
131	Jacksonville	Atlantic Sun	96.0
132	Jacksonville St.	Ohio Valley	95.2
133	James Madison	Colonial Athletic	95.7
134	Kansas	Big 12	120.1
135	Kansas St.	Big 12	106.1
136	Kennesaw St.	Atlantic Sun	85.8
137	Kent St.	Mid-American	105.0
138	Kentucky	Southeastern	114.0
139	La Salle	Atlantic 10	100.7
140	Lafayette	Patriot	98.1
141	Lamar	Southland	94.6
142	Lehigh	Patriot	95.0
143	Liberty	Atlantic Sun	107.9
144	Lipscomb	Atlantic Sun	97.7
145	Little Rock	Sun Belt	100.0
146	Long Beach St.	Big West	91.9
147	Long Island	Northeast	95.5
148	Longwood	Big South	91.3
149	Louisiana	Sun Belt	94.8
150	Louisiana Monroe	Sun Belt	94.3
151	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	107.0
152	Louisville	Atlantic Coast	117.7
153	Loyola (Chi.)	Missouri Valley	103.8
154	Loyola Marymount	West Coast	97.8
155	Loyola (MD)	Patriot	97.4
156	LSU	Southeastern	111.5
157	Maine	American East	87.7
158	Manhattan	Metro Atlantic	93.9
159	Marist	Metro Atlantic	87.3
160	Marquette	Big East	112.6
161	Marshall	Conference USA	99.0
162	Maryland	Big Ten	116.3
163	Massachusetts	Atlantic 10	98.7
164	McNeese St.	Southland	94.7
165	MD Eastern Shore	Mideastern Athletic	82.1
166	Memphis	American Athletic	113.7
167	Mercer	Southern	94.3
168	Merrimack	Northeast	92.4
169	Miami (Fla.)	Atlantic Coast	106.8
170	Miami (O)	Mid-American	97.5
171	Michigan	Big Ten	114.6
172	Michigan St.	Big Ten	118.9
173	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	94.6
174	Milwaukee	Horizon	95.2
175	Minnesota	Big Ten	110.8
176	Mississippi	Southeastern	107.1
177	Mississippi St.	Southeastern	108.6
178	Mississippi Valley St.	Southwestern Athl.	77.5
179	Missouri	Southeastern	109.6
180	Missouri-KC	Western Athletic	96.9
181	Missouri St.	Missouri Valley	101.4
182	Monmouth	Metro Atlantic	95.8
183	Montana	Big Sky	97.4
184	Montana St.	Big Sky	95.6
185	Morehead St.	Ohio Valley	93.8
186	Morgan St.	Mideastern Athletic	90.8
187	Mount St. Mary’s	Northeast	93.2
188	Murray St.	Ohio Valley	102.6
189	Navy	Patriot	95.5
190	Nebraska	Big Ten	102.3
191	Nevada	Mountain West	105.5
192	New Hampshire	American East	93.3
193	New Mexico	Mountain West	106.1
194	New Mexico St.	Western Athletic	104.8
195	New Orleans	Southland	93.5
196	Niagara	Metro Atlantic	90.0
197	Nicholls St.	Southland	96.1
198	NJIT	Atlantic Sun	93.8
199	Norfolk St.	Mideastern Athletic	91.9
200	North Alabama	Atlantic Sun	92.3
201	North Carolina	Atlantic Coast	111.4
202	North Carolina A&T	Mideastern Athletic	89.2
203	North Carolina Central	Mideastern Athletic	89.5
204	North Carolina St.	Atlantic Coast	111.5
205	North Dakota	Summit	96.5
206	North Dakota St.	Summit	100.5
207	North Florida	Atlantic Sun	99.0
208	North Texas	Conference USA	102.4
209	Northeastern	Colonial Athletic	101.1
210	Northern Arizona	Big Sky	95.5
211	Northern Colorado	Big Sky	102.7
212	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	99.9
213	Northern Iowa	Missouri Valley	106.9
214	Northern Kentucky	Horizon	102.7
215	Northwestern	Big Ten	104.5
216	Northwestern St.	Southland	85.7
217	Notre Dame	Atlantic Coast	108.8
218	Oakland	Horizon	98.7
219	Ohio	Mid-American	99.4
220	Ohio St.	Big Ten	119.6
221	Oklahoma	Big 12	110.0
222	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	110.5
223	Old Dominion	Conference USA	99.2
224	Omaha	Summit	97.8
225	Oral Roberts	Summit	101.8
226	Oregon	Pac-12	114.9
227	Oregon St.	Pac-12	107.7
228	Pacific	West Coast	99.6
229	Penn	Ivy	103.9
230	Penn St.	Big Ten	113.1
231	Pepperdine	West Coast	100.9
232	Pittsburgh	Atlantic Coast	107.1
233	Portland	West Coast	93.9
234	Portland St.	Big Sky	97.4
235	Prairie View A&M	Southwestern Athl.	95.6
236	Presbyterian	Big South	86.4
237	Princeton	Ivy	97.0
238	Providence	Big East	107.0
239	Purdue	Big Ten	113.3
240	Purdue Fort Wayne	Summit	95.7
241	Quinnipiac	Metro Atlantic	94.8
242	Radford	Big South	102.3
243	Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	107.0
244	Rice	Conference USA	98.1
245	Richmond	Atlantic 10	107.0
246	Rider	Metro Atlantic	101.4
247	Robert Morris	Northeast	93.2
248	Rutgers	Big Ten	110.1
249	Sacramento St.	Big Sky	98.1
250	Sacred Heart	Northeast	98.7
251	Saint Joseph’s	Atlantic 10	95.3
252	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10	105.1
253	Saint Mary’s	West Coast	111.4
254	Saint Peter’s	Metro Atlantic	92.8
255	Sam Houston St.	Southland	99.6
256	Samford	Southern	97.0
257	San Diego	West Coast	99.4
258	San Diego St.	Mountain West	113.5
259	San Francisco	West Coast	105.6
260	San Jose St.	Mountain West	89.0
261	Santa Clara	West Coast	100.4
262	SE Louisiana	Southland	88.9
263	SE Missouri	Ohio Valley	91.1
264	Seattle	Western Athletic	95.8
265	Seton Hall	Big East	113.6
266	Siena	Metro Atlantic	98.4
267	SIU Edwardsville	Ohio Valley	85.1
268	SMU	American Athletic	105.4
269	South Alabama	Sun Belt	98.7
270	South Carolina	Southeastern	105.9
271	South Carolina St.	Mideastern Athletic	86.7
272	South Dakota	Summit	98.9
273	South Dakota St.	Summit	99.3
274	South Florida	American Athletic	103.6
275	Southern	Southwestern Athl.	88.9
276	Southern Illinois	Missouri Valley	98.6
277	Southern Miss.	Conference USA	95.4
278	Southern Utah	Big Sky	100.5
279	St. Bonaventure	Atlantic 10	102.1
280	St. Francis (NY)	Northeast	90.3
281	St. Francis (PA)	Northeast	98.8
282	St. John’s	Big East	107.5
283	Stanford	Pac-12	109.0
284	Stephen F. Austin	Southland	101.9
285	Stetson	Atlantic Sun	89.0
286	Stony Brook	American East	100.7
287	Syracuse	Atlantic Coast	108.6
288	TCU	Big 12	107.9
289	Temple	American Athletic	109.7
290	Tennessee	Southeastern	111.6
291	Tennessee St.	Ohio Valley	96.0
292	Tennessee Tech	Ohio Valley	89.0
293	Texas	Big 12	108.3
294	Texas A&M	Southeastern	101.0
295	Texas A&M CC	Southland	92.2
296	Texas Southern	Southwestern Athl.	94.4
297	Texas St.	Sun Belt	101.6
298	Texas Tech	Big 12	112.3
299	Toledo	Mid-American	105.1
300	Towson	Colonial Athletic	100.8
301	Troy	Sun Belt	94.1
302	Tulane	American Athletic	98.6
303	Tulsa	American Athletic	102.5
304	UAB	Conference USA	100.2
305	UC Davis	Big West	95.1
306	UC Irvine	Big West	102.6
307	UC Riverside	Big West	96.7
308	UC Santa Barbara	Big West	100.6
309	UCLA	Pac-12	104.5
310	UM Baltimore Co.	American East	93.8
311	UMass Lowell	American East	95.6
312	UNC Asheville	Big South	94.9
313	UNC Greensboro	Southern	107.2
314	UNC Wilmington	Colonial Athletic	91.5
315	UNLV	Mountain West	99.5
316	USC	Pac-12	108.5
317	USC Upstate	Big South	87.3
318	UT Arlington	Southland	101.7
319	UT Rio Grande Valley	Western Athletic	94.0
320	UT-Martin	Ohio Valley	91.2
321	Utah	Pac-12	104.8
322	Utah St.	Mountain West	111.4
323	Utah Valley	Western Athletic	94.8
324	UTEP	Conference USA	101.5
325	UTSA	Conference USA	98.0
326	Valparaiso	Missouri Valley	100.1
327	Vanderbilt	Southeastern	102.6
328	VCU	Atlantic 10	110.1
329	Vermont	American East	106.6
330	Villanova	Big East	113.5
331	Virginia	Atlantic Coast	111.1
332	Virginia Tech	Atlantic Coast	108.0
333	VMI	Southern	93.7
334	Wagner	Northeast	90.3
335	Wake Forest	Atlantic Coast	104.9
336	Washington	Pac-12	111.1
337	Washington St.	Pac-12	102.5
338	Weber St.	Big Sky	94.3
339	West Virginia	Big 12	112.7
340	Western Carolina	Southern	99.9
341	Western Illinois	Summit	91.0
342	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	106.3
343	Western Michigan	Mid-American	94.4
344	Wichita St.	Big East	112.1
345	William & Mary	Colonial Athletic	98.9
346	Winthrop	Big South	99.5
347	Wisconsin	Big Ten	109.7
348	Wofford	Southern	101.9
349	Wright St.	Horizon	103.8
350	Wyoming	Mountain West	91.8
351	Xavier	Big East	111.8
352	Yale	Ivy	107.7
353	Youngstown St.	Horizon	95.9

 

Ratings By Conference

 

#	American Athletic	PiRate
1	Memphis	113.7
2	Houston	112.0
3	Temple	109.7
4	Connecticut	109.2
5	Cincinnati	109.1
6	SMU	105.4
7	Central Florida	104.3
8	South Florida	103.6
9	Tulsa	102.5
10	Tulane	98.6
11	East Carolina	95.2
Avg	American Athletic	105.8
#	American East	PiRate
1	Vermont	106.6
2	Stony Brook	100.7
3	Albany	95.9
4	UMass Lowell	95.6
5	UM Baltimore Co.	93.8
6	New Hampshire	93.3
7	Binghamton	90.0
8	Hartford	89.6
9	Maine	87.7
Avg	American East	94.8
#	Atlantic 10	PiRate
1	Dayton	115.0
2	VCU	110.1
3	Duquesne	107.9
4	Davidson	107.7
5	Rhode Island	107.0
6	Richmond	107.0
7	Saint Louis	105.1
8	George Mason	103.1
9	St. Bonaventure	102.1
10	La Salle	100.7
11	Massachusetts	98.7
12	George Washington	96.1
13	Saint Joseph’s	95.3
14	Fordham	95.2
Avg.	Atlantic 10	103.6
#	Atlantic Coast	PiRate
1	Duke	120.7
2	Louisville	117.7
3	Florida St.	114.3
4	North Carolina St.	111.5
5	North Carolina	111.4
6	Virginia	111.1
7	Notre Dame	108.8
8	Syracuse	108.6
9	Virginia Tech	108.0
10	Pittsburgh	107.1
11	Miami (Fla.)	106.8
12	Clemson	105.7
13	Wake Forest	104.9
14	Georgia Tech	104.4
15	Boston College	102.2
Avg	Atlantic Coast	109.5
#	Atlantic Sun	PiRate
1	Liberty	107.9
2	North Florida	99.0
3	Lipscomb	97.7
4	Jacksonville	96.0
5	NJIT	93.8
6	North Alabama	92.3
7	Florida Gulf Coast	89.2
8	Stetson	89.0
9	Kennesaw St.	85.8
Avg	Atlantic Sun	94.5
#	Big 12	PiRate
1	Kansas	120.1
2	Baylor	115.3
3	West Virginia	112.7
4	Texas Tech	112.3
5	Iowa St.	111.5
6	Oklahoma St.	110.5
7	Oklahoma	110.0
8	Texas	108.3
9	TCU	107.9
10	Kansas St.	106.1
Avg	Big 12	111.5
#	Big East	PiRate
1	Butler	114.8
2	Seton Hall	113.6
3	Villanova	113.5
4	Marquette	112.6
5	Wichita St.	112.1
6	Xavier	111.8
7	Georgetown	111.3
8	Creighton	110.6
9	DePaul	107.8
10	St. John’s	107.5
11	Providence	107.0
Avg	Big East	111.2
#	Big Sky	PiRate
1	Northern Colorado	102.7
2	Eastern Washington	102.2
3	Southern Utah	100.5
4	Sacramento St.	98.1
5	Portland St.	97.4
6	Montana	97.4
7	Montana St.	95.6
8	Northern Arizona	95.5
9	Weber St.	94.3
10	Idaho St.	91.6
11	Idaho	88.5
#	Big Sky	96.7
#	Big South	PiRate
1	Radford	102.3
2	Winthrop	99.5
3	Gardner-Webb	96.1
4	Campbell	95.6
5	UNC Asheville	94.9
6	Longwood	91.3
7	Charleston Southern	90.5
8	Hampton	89.8
9	USC Upstate	87.3
10	High Point	86.5
11	Presbyterian	86.4
Avg	Big South	92.7
#	Big Ten	PiRate
1	Ohio St.	119.6
2	Michigan St.	118.9
3	Maryland	116.3
4	Michigan	114.6
5	Purdue	113.3
6	Iowa	113.3
7	Penn St.	113.1
8	Indiana	112.1
9	Minnesota	110.8
10	Illinois	110.8
11	Rutgers	110.1
12	Wisconsin	109.7
13	Northwestern	104.5
14	Nebraska	102.3
Avg	Big Ten	112.1
#	Big West	PiRate
1	UC Irvine	102.6
2	UC Santa Barbara	100.6
3	Hawaii	100.0
4	UC Riverside	96.7
5	UC Davis	95.1
6	Cal St. Northridge	94.2
7	Cal St. Fullerton	93.2
8	Long Beach St.	91.9
9	Cal Poly	89.3
Avg	Big West	96.0
#	Colonial Athletic	PiRate
1	Hofstra	101.6
2	Northeastern	101.1
3	Charleston	100.8
4	Towson	100.8
5	Delaware	99.9
6	William & Mary	98.9
7	James Madison	95.7
8	Drexel	95.4
9	UNC Wilmington	91.5
10	Elon	90.1
Avg	Colonial Athletic	97.6
#	Conference USA	PiRate
1	Louisiana Tech	107.0
2	Western Kentucky	106.3
3	North Texas	102.4
4	UTEP	101.5
5	UAB	100.2
6	Florida Int’l.	100.2
7	Charlotte	99.6
8	Old Dominion	99.2
9	Marshall	99.0
10	Rice	98.1
11	UTSA	98.0
12	Florida Atlantic	97.6
13	Southern Miss.	95.4
14	Middle Tennessee	94.6
Avg	Conference USA	99.9
#	Horizon	PiRate
1	Wright St.	103.8
2	Northern Kentucky	102.7
3	Oakland	98.7
4	Green Bay	97.1
5	Youngstown St.	95.9
6	Illinois Chicago	95.9
7	Milwaukee	95.2
8	Detroit	91.4
9	IUPUI	90.8
10	Cleveland St.	89.8
Avg	Horizon	96.1
#	Ivy	PiRate
1	Yale	107.7
2	Harvard	105.2
3	Penn	103.9
4	Dartmouth	98.3
5	Princeton	97.0
6	Columbia	96.4
7	Brown	96.0
8	Cornell	93.2
Avg	Ivy	99.7
#	Metro Atlantic	PiRate
1	Rider	101.4
2	Siena	98.4
3	Iona	98.2
4	Canisius	96.0
5	Fairfield	95.8
6	Monmouth	95.8
7	Quinnipiac	94.8
8	Manhattan	93.9
9	Saint Peter’s	92.8
10	Niagara	90.0
11	Marist	87.3
Avg	Metro Atlantic	94.9
#	Mid-American	PiRate
1	Toledo	105.1
2	Kent St.	105.0
3	Akron	104.5
4	Ball St.	103.8
5	Buffalo	102.0
6	Bowling Green	101.2
7	Northern Illinois	99.9
8	Central Michigan	99.6
9	Ohio	99.4
10	Eastern Michigan	98.1
11	Miami (O)	97.5
12	Western Michigan	94.4
Avg	Mid-American	100.9
#	Mideastern Athletic	PiRate
1	Bethune Cookman	92.5
2	Norfolk St.	91.9
3	Coppin St.	91.2
4	Morgan St.	90.8
5	North Carolina Central	89.5
6	North Carolina A&T	89.2
7	Florida A&M	89.2
8	South Carolina St.	86.7
9	Howard	83.9
10	MD Eastern Shore	82.1
11	Delaware St.	81.2
Avg	Mideastern Athletic	88.0
#	Missouri Valley	PiRate
1	Northern Iowa	106.9
2	Loyola (Chi.)	103.8
3	Bradley	102.7
4	Indiana St.	102.1
5	Missouri St.	101.4
6	Drake	100.9
7	Valparaiso	100.1
8	Southern Illinois	98.6
9	Evansville	97.8
10	Illinois St.	97.3
Avg	Missouri Valley	101.2
#	Mountain West	PiRate
1	San Diego St.	113.5
2	Utah St.	111.4
3	New Mexico	106.1
4	Nevada	105.5
5	Boise St.	104.6
6	Fresno St.	103.2
7	Colorado St.	101.6
8	UNLV	99.5
9	Air Force	97.4
10	Wyoming	91.8
11	San Jose St.	89.0
Avg	Mountain West	102.1
#	Northeast	PiRate
1	St. Francis (PA)	98.8
2	Sacred Heart	98.7
3	Bryant	96.7
4	Long Island	95.5
5	Robert Morris	93.2
6	Mount St. Mary’s	93.2
7	Merrimack	92.4
8	Fairleigh Dickinson	91.6
9	Wagner	90.3
10	St. Francis (NY)	90.3
11	Central Connecticut	81.6
Avg	Northeast	92.9
#	Ohio Valley	PiRate
1	Belmont	107.1
2	Murray St.	102.6
3	Eastern Illinois	98.1
4	Austin Peay	98.0
5	Tennessee St.	96.0
6	Jacksonville St.	95.2
7	Morehead St.	93.8
8	UT-Martin	91.2
9	SE Missouri	91.1
10	Eastern Kentucky	89.1
11	Tennessee Tech	89.0
12	SIU Edwardsville	85.1
Avg	Ohio Valley	94.7
#	Pac-12	PiRate
1	Arizona	115.9
2	Oregon	114.9
3	Washington	111.1
4	Colorado	111.0
5	Stanford	109.0
6	USC	108.5
7	Oregon St.	107.7
8	Arizona St.	107.3
9	Utah	104.8
10	UCLA	104.5
11	Washington St.	102.5
12	California	99.4
Avg	Pac-12	108.0
#	Patriot	PiRate
1	Colgate	101.5
2	Lafayette	98.1
3	Loyola (MD)	97.4
4	American	96.9
5	Boston U	96.9
6	Bucknell	96.2
7	Navy	95.5
8	Lehigh	95.0
9	Army	91.9
10	Holy Cross	88.2
Avg	Patriot	95.8
#	Southeastern	PiRate
1	Auburn	114.6
2	Kentucky	114.0
3	Florida	112.3
4	Arkansas	111.7
5	Tennessee	111.6
6	LSU	111.5
7	Missouri	109.6
8	Alabama	109.4
9	Mississippi St.	108.6
10	Mississippi	107.1
11	Georgia	106.7
12	South Carolina	105.9
13	Vanderbilt	102.6
14	Texas A&M	101.0
Avg	Southeastern	109.0
#	Southland	PiRate
1	Stephen F. Austin	101.9
2	UT Arlington	101.7
3	Sam Houston St.	99.6
4	Nicholls St.	96.1
5	Abilene Christian	95.8
6	McNeese St.	94.7
7	Lamar	94.6
8	New Orleans	93.5
9	Texas A&M CC	92.2
10	Central Arkansas	89.9
11	SE Louisiana	88.9
12	Houston Baptist	88.3
13	Northwestern St.	85.7
14	Incarnate Word	83.4
Avg	Southland	93.3
#	Southern	PiRate
1	East Tennessee St.	108.3
2	UNC Greensboro	107.2
3	Furman	106.8
4	Wofford	101.9
5	Western Carolina	99.9
6	Chattanooga	97.2
7	Samford	97.0
8	Mercer	94.3
9	VMI	93.7
10	Citadel	91.8
Avg	Southern	99.8
#	Southwestern Athletic	PiRate
1	Prairie View A&M	95.6
2	Texas Southern	94.4
3	Grambling	92.1
4	Alcorn St.	89.6
5	Jackson St.	89.1
6	Southern	88.9
7	Alabama St.	87.3
8	Alabama A&M	86.4
9	Arkansas Pine Bluff	84.8
10	Mississippi Valley St.	77.5
Avg	Southwestern Athletic	88.6
#	Summit	PiRate
1	Oral Roberts	101.8
2	North Dakota St.	100.5
3	South Dakota St.	99.3
4	South Dakota	98.9
5	Omaha	97.8
6	North Dakota	96.5
7	Purdue Fort Wayne	95.7
8	Western Illinois	91.0
9	Denver	89.6
Avg	Summit	96.8
#	Sun Belt	PiRate
1	Georgia St.	103.3
2	Appalachian St.	101.6
3	Texas St.	101.6
4	Georgia Southern	100.3
5	Coastal Carolina	100.2
6	Little Rock	100.0
7	South Alabama	98.7
8	Arkansas St.	96.3
9	Louisiana	94.8
10	Louisiana Monroe	94.3
11	Troy	94.1
Avg	Sun Belt	98.7
#	Western Athletic	PiRate
1	New Mexico St.	104.8
2	California Baptist	100.1
3	Missouri-KC	96.9
4	Grand Canyon	96.6
5	Seattle	95.8
6	Cal St. Bakersfield	95.6
7	Utah Valley	94.8
8	UT Rio Grande Valley	94.0
9	Chicago St.	80.3
Avg	Western Athletic	95.4
#	West Coast	PiRate
1	Gonzaga	118.4
2	BYU	112.5
3	Saint Mary’s	111.4
4	San Francisco	105.6
5	Pepperdine	100.9
6	Santa Clara	100.4
7	Pacific	99.6
8	San Diego	99.4
9	Loyola Marymount	97.8
10	Portland	93.9
Avg	West Coast	104.0

 

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Just A Plain and Simple Happy Existence

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Fun Stuff For Stats Buffs-Part 3: Efficiency

Before getting into the meat of this final installment, I must apologize in advance for the brevity in this last segment.  Time constraints have made it impossible to thoroughly peruse individual offensive and defensive efficiency.

That may be a good thing for you the reader, because you can read the dictionary about as quickly as you can go through all the steps involved in calculating individual efficiency.  Suffice it to say that there are several parts to this calculation.  One must have a lengthy formula on a spreadsheet where a player’s and his team’s statistics can be inputted, and the spreadsheet spits out the numbers.

If you really want to know the entire process, then you absolutely must purchase the book by the number one authoritative source on the matter.

The book is: Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis by Dean Oliver.  You might be able to find it in a library, as it is included in the catalog of more than 750 libraries throughout the nation, more than likely at a local college or university library near you.

Just to show you how involved the formulas are, it takes 18 separate calculations from start to finish for each player’s offensive number and almost as many for his defensive number.

The NCAA Selection Committee will use Team Offensive Efficiency and Team Defensive Efficiency in their process of picking the at-large teams and seeding all 68 teams.  This is rather simple and can be explained briefly.

Offensive Efficiency = Points scored per 100 possessions

Defensive Efficiency = Points allowed per 100 possessions.

In the 21st Century, possessions are kept as a statistic, but if you cannot find this number, you can estimate it very accurately by this formula.

Team Possessions = FG Attempts + (.475* FT Attempts) – Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers

In the NBA, substitute .44 for .475 in FT Attempts.

Obviously, round the product from the Free Throw Attempts formula to the nearest whole number.

Let’s look at some examples for a game, a season to date, and some past seasons.

Example #1. Nevada vs. Air Force, January 19, 2019

Nevada defeated Air Force 67-52 last Saturday in Reno.  The Wolfpack totally shut down the Falcons’ offense, while Air Force played capable defense on the perimeter, forcing Nevada players to hurry their three-point shots.

For the game, Nevada had 57 total field goal attempts, 23 free throw attempts, 9 offensive rebounds, and 14 turnovers.

To calculate possessions, plug the numbers into the equation:

57 + (.475 * 23) -9 + 14 = 73

For Air Force, their stat line included 51 total field goal attempts, just 9 free throw attempts, 3 offensive rebounds, and 21 turnovers.

51 + (.475 * 9) -3 + 21 = 73

Possessions must be equal or off by one or two between the teams, because after one team completes a possession, the other team gets the ball.  Two is the most advantageous one team can have over the other in possessions.  This comes about when the team that gets the opening tap also gets the last possession of the first half, as well as the first and last possession of the game.  It happens very rarely, because in order to have the first and last possession of both halves, there must be an odd number of jump ball calls in the first half so that the team that got the opening tap also gets the first possession of the second half..

Let’s get back to the calculation.

Nevada scored 67 points on 73 possessions

67/73 = 0.918 or 91.8 points per 100 possessions

Air Force scored 52 points on 73 possessions

52/73 = .712 or 71.2 points per 100 possessions

 

Example #2: Gonzaga vs. San Francisco, January 12, 2019

In this key West Coast Conference game with first place in the league on the line, Gonzaga went to the Bay and beat the Dons 96-83.

Gonzaga: 69 FGA, 21 FTA, 12 Off Reb, 4 TOV

69 + (.475 * 21) – 12 + 4 = 71 possessions

USF: 69 FGA, 25 FTA, 14 Off Reb, 5 TOV

69 + (.475 * 25) – 14 + 5 = 72 possessions

Gonzaga 96 points on 71 possessions = 1.352 points per possession or 135.2 points per 100 possessions.

San Francisco 83 points on 72 possessions = 1.153 points per possession or 115.3 points per 100 possessions.

 

Example 3: Michigan Wolverines to date

Michigan used to win games by three-point barrages and fast break points and limited defense.  Then, after assistant coach Luke Yaklich came to Ann Arbor to install his multiple defenses, the Maize and Blue became just as tough on the defensive side if not better defensively.

So far this year, the Wolverines have these offensive and defensive stats through 18 games.

Offense: 1,021 FGA, 318 FTA, 165 Off. Rebounds, 175 Turnovers in 18 games

1021 + (.475 * 318) – 165 + 175 = 1,182 total possessions and 65.7 possessions per game.

Michigan has scored 1,306 points in 18 games.

1,306 / 1,182 * 100 = 110.5 points per 100 possessions.

Michigan’s Defense has given up: 1,003 FGA, 210 FTA, 142 off. Rebounds, and  237 turnovers.

1,003 + (.475 * 210) – 142 + 237 = 1,198 total possessions and 66.6 possessions per game.

Michigan has surrendered 1,027 points in 18 games.

1,027 / 1,198 * 100 = 85.7 points per 100 possessions.

A raw point spread between two teams can be estimated by combining their offensive and defensive points 100 possessions and factoring in strengths of schedule and home court advantage.

Let’s look at State vs. Tech in an imaginary matchup.

State has an offensive efficiency of 110 points per 100 possessions and a defensive efficiency of 90 points per 100 possessions against a schedule 3 points weaker than average.  They average 76 possessions per game, and their home court advantage is worth 3 points.

Tech has an offensive efficiency of 102 points per 100 possessions and a defensive efficiency of 99 points per 100 possessions against a schedule 8 points better than average.  They average 66 possessions per game.

For the year in question, the national average for possessions is 70 per game, so State plays at a tempo of about 8.6% above average, while Tech plays at a tempo of about 5.7% below average.  Because it is easier for one team to slow pace down more than it is for another team to speed pace up (unless they press full court for most of the game), it can be estimated that this game will have about 69 possessions.

If State outscores its opponents by 20 points per 100 possessions, in 69 possessions, this equates to 13.8 points.

If Tech outscores its opponents by 3 points per 100 possessions, in 69 possessions, this equates to 2.07 points.

To this point, State looks like an 11.73 point favorite over Tech, but this is not the case.  Schedule strength and home court advantage must be included.

If Tech’s schedule on average has been about 11 points tougher per game than State, you then add those 11 points in Tech’s favor.  Now, the State’s advantage has been reduced to 0.73 points.  Tech’s home court advantage is 3 points, so the expected outcome would be State by 3.73, or 4 points.

This is a crude method once used by the PiRate Ratings, as the Blue Rating.  We no longer use this method, as there are more accurate ways to determine pointspreads, namely using algorithms of the Four Factors with schedule strengths, home court advantage, and road team disadvantage.

Example 4: Villanova 2018 season

The Wildcats won their second national championship in three years last season, finishing with a 36-4 record.  They scored 3,463 points and allowed 2,807 points in 40 games.

Here are their pertinent stats to calculate efficiency.

Field Goal Attempts: 2,440

Opponents: 2,401

Free Throw Attempts: 718

Opponents: 641

Offensive Rebounds: 380

Opponents: 378

Turnovers: 426

Opponents: 512

Possessions: 2,440 + (.475 * 718) – 380 + 426 = 2,827 (70.7 possessions per game)

Opponents: 2,401 + (.475 * 641) – 378 + 512 = 2,839 (71.0 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency

3,463/2,827 * 100 = 122.5 points per 100 possessions

Defensive Efficiency

2,807/2839 * 100 = 98.9 points per 100 possessions

 

How does this compare to past national champions?  Because offensive rebounding stats were not officially kept until this century, it can only be estimated for the 20th Century.  No doubt the UCLA teams of 1967 thru 1969 and 1972 and 1973 would be off the charts great, as the Bruins dominated in every aspect of the game during their dynasty years.

There are some very fine teams that won championships in recent years, so let’s look at the national champions during this time.  The number shown is the total scoring margin per 100 possessions.  Of course, schedule strength is not equal for these teams, but on the whole, there is not a lot of difference, as these champions all played schedules between 5 and 10 points above the national average.

When adjusted to schedule strength, here are the 10 best teams in the 21st Century using the PiRate Ratings formula.

2008: Kansas 124.0

2001: Duke 123.6

2018: Villanova 122.9

2010: Duke 122.1

2013: Louisville 121.8

2005: North Carolina 121.7

2012: Kentucky 121.5

2015: Duke 121.3 

2016: Villanova 120.9

2009: North Carolina 120.3

2007: Florida 120.1

2002: Maryland 119.6

2004: Connecticut 117.9

2006: Florida 117.1

2017: North Carolina 117.0

2011: Connecticut 115.8

2003: Syracuse 115.1

2014: Connecticut 111.6

Note that the national champions through these seasons were not necessarily the highest rated team by efficiency.  For instance, Connecticut was not considered a factor at the end of the 2011 regular season.  They finished tied for 9th in the Big East, and thus they had to play in the opening round of the conference tournament.  To win the conference tournament, they would have to do something never done before or since–win five games in five days.  The Huskies became the big story of Championship Week win Coach Jim Calhoun rode his star guard Kemba Walker to the title, winning five games in five days at Madison Square Garden, as Walker performed for his friends and family from the Bronx, averaging 26 points per game by taking it to the hoop and drawing enough fouls to shoot 54 free throws in just five games.

The Huskies were on a roll, and they won six more games in the Big Dance.  They finished 11-0 and still only rose to 15.8 points better than average against an average schedule.  Before this 11-game streak, UConn was just 9-9 in the conference.  However, the Huskies had played a very difficult schedule that included 18 ranked opponents, in which they went 12-6 in those games.  All nine of their losses came to NCAA Tournament teams, so strength of schedule was terribly important in factoring their adjusted efficiency.

 

2019 Top Efficiency

By now, you must want to know which teams are at the top in total efficiency?  It should come as no surprise that the NET Ratings and the Efficiency Ratings are about the same.

Virginia, Duke, Michigan State, Gonzaga, and Tennessee are at the tops in adjusted efficiency, or to put it bluntly, what the NCAA Selection Committee will look at.  Likewise, these are also the top five teams in NET Ratings, so if the Selection Committed picked the bracket today, four of these five would be your number one seeds, and the fifth would be the top number two seed.

This doesn’t mean that one of these five teams will win the national championship, but the odds are that from this group of five, there is about a 50-50 chance that one will win the title.  Of course, this is only a mid-season ranking.  The ranking on March 17.

 

Individual Efficiency

I won’t begin to explain individual offensive and defensive efficiency, as my only recommendation it to read Basketball on Paper, as Oliver is the Bill James (or Tom Tango) of basketball analysis.

Let me just list which players from the power conferences rate at the top.

Can you guess who is the current number one player in efficiency?  I bet if you had one free guess to win a car on a game show, you’d win the car.

The best player in college ball today is the best player in total efficiency.  It comes as no surprise that Duke’s Zion Williamson is number one, and he is far ahead of the field.  Gonzaga’s Brandon Clarke is a distant number two, and Wisconin’s Ethan Happ is almost as far being Clarke in third place as Clarke is behind Williamson.

Before you think that this rating is due to just these three players being great, let me add that their coaches and teammates are also important in this rating.  Coach Mike Krzyzewski has produced a lot of highly efficient players.  Sure, most of them were McDonald’s All-Americans, but there are some of these 5-star players in recent history that are not all that efficient.

Vanderbilt’s Simi Shittu was the Number 7 overall player in this current freshman class, a 5-star McDonald’s All-American.  The Commodores are one of the least efficient teams from a Power Conference, and Shittu’s numbers have headed south once SEC play began, and the opposition quickly learned his liabilities.  Shittu actually owns a negative offensive efficiency rating through 17 games, and an even worse rating in five conference games, as he has negative efficiency in both offense and defense.  It doesn’t help his efficiency when he has a 7.8% three-point accuracy, low free throw percentage, and a high turnover percentage.  I have heard comparisons made to former St. John’s 5-star player Wayne McKoy from the 1970’s, when McKoy went from top player in the freshman class to never playing in the NBA.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 4-5, 2017

 

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 4, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Syracuse	Virginia	-7	-6	-9
Duke	Pittsburgh	15	16	12
Boston College	Louisville	-15	-13	-15
North Carolina St.	Miami (Fla.)	-1	-1	1
Wake Forest	Georgia Tech	11	12	11
North Carolina	Notre Dame	9	8	9
Georgetown	Seton Hall	3	3	7
DePaul	Marquette	-10	-8	-9
Creighton	Xavier	6	5	5
Villanova	St. John’s	17	19	19
Maryland	Purdue	-2	-3	1
Penn St.	Rutgers	8	6	8
Illinois	Minnesota	-2	1	-1
Michigan	Ohio St.	7	8	2
TCU	Texas	8	6	5
Kansas	Iowa St.	11	10	10
Baylor	Kansas St.	9	9	14
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	11	13	7
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	7	9	7
Oregon	Arizona	2	4	5
Stanford	Utah	-3	-3	-2
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	-6	-2	-1
Washington St.	USC	-7	-8	-5
Washington	UCLA	-11	-10	-6
South Carolina	Georgia	8	6	6
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	6	6	8
Mississippi St.	Tennessee	-4	-1	-6
Missouri	Arkansas	-6	-4	-3
Florida	Kentucky	1	4	1
Alabama	Auburn	6	7	9
LSU	Texas A&M	-3	-2	-6
Cincinnati	Connecticut	14	14	14
Tulsa	SMU	-6	-6	-6
Gonzaga	Santa Clara	27	20	23
San Diego	Saint Mary’s	-15	-16	-16

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 5, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Florida St.	Clemson	8	6	8
Wisconsin	Indiana	9	7	4
Iowa	Nebraska	7	6	3
California	Colorado	5	6	8

PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Gonzaga
2. Villanova
3. Louisville
4. West Virginia
5. Kansas
6. Kentucky
7. North Carolina
8. Virginia
9. Duke
10. Florida
11. Wisconsin
12. Baylor
13. Arizona
14. Purdue
15. UCLA
16. Cincinnati
17. Florida St.
18. Oregon
19. Creighton
20. St. Mary’s
21. Notre Dame
22. SMU
23. Butler
24. South Carolina
25. Wichita St.

ACC

1. Louisville
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Duke
5. Florida St.
6. Notre Dame
7. Clemson
8. Wake Forest
9. Virgnia Tech
10. Miami
11. Syracuse
12. Georgia Tech
13. North Carolina St.
14. Pittsburgh
15. Boston College

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Creighton
3. Butler
4. Xavier
5. Marquette
6. Seton Hall
7. Georgetown
8. Providence
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Wisconsin
2. Purdue
3. Maryland
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan St.
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Indiana
9. Ohio St.
10. Iowa
11. Illinois
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Big 12

1. West Virginia
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma St.
5. Iowa St.
6. Kansas St.
7. TCU
8. Texas Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Pac-12

1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. Oregon
4. Utah
5. USC
6. California
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Arkansas
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Vanderbilt
8. Alabama
9. Auburn
10. Texas A&M
11. Ole Miss
12. Mississippi St.
13. LSU
14. Missouri

Games You Will Want to Watch 

All Times Eastern Standard

SATURDAY

Maryland vs. Purdue 12:00 PM on ESPN

Creighton vs. Xavier 3:00 PM on Fox

North Dakota St. vs. South Dakota 3:00 PM on ESPN3

Oregon vs. Arizona 4:00 PM on ESPN

North Carolina vs. Notre Dame 6:00 PM on ESPN

Harvard vs. Princeton 7:00 PM on ESPN3

Wichita St. vs. Illinois St. 8:00 PM on ESPN2

Florida vs. Kentucky 8:15 PM on ESPN

SUNDAY

Wisconsin vs. Indiana 1:00 PM on CBS

The Groundhog may have seen his shadow to forecast 6 more weeks of winter, but cheer up.  Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training in 10 days.

New England 24  Atlanta 20

Use this at your own expense–we do not gamble.  Some experts are going heavy on the UNDER the last 36 hours, and computer sims say it is a sharp selection, but still we won’t wager a penny.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For January 21-22, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, January 21, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Boston College	North Carolina	-17	-20	-15
Notre Dame	Syracuse	10	9	10
Florida St.	Louisville	2	1	2
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	-1	1	-1
Virginia	Georgia Tech	17	20	22
Duke	Miami (Fla.)	10	11	14
Kansas	Texas	17	19	15
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	-2	-4	-3
Texas Tech	Oklahoma St.	3	5	3
Kansas St.	West Virginia	-4	-7	-1
TCU	Baylor	-1	-2	-6
Villanova	Providence	17	19	15
DePaul	Butler	-13	-16	-17
Creighton	Marquette	9	9	14
Rutgers	Nebraska	1	-2	-6
Purdue	Penn St.	14	16	14
Michigan	Illinois	6	8	-1
Indiana	Michigan St.	8	8	3
Minnesota	Wisconsin	-1	-4	5
Washington St.	Colorado	-5	-6	-7
UCLA	Arizona	7	6	1
Oregon	Stanford	15	18	14
Washington	Utah	-4	-3	-6
Oregon St.	California	-11	-14	-11
Florida	Vanderbilt	14	14	11
Texas A&M	Georgia	1	3	3
Missouri	Ole Miss	-3	-4	-8
Auburn	Alabama	2	1	-2
Kentucky	South Carolina	14	17	14
Tennessee	Mississippi St.	7	5	10
Arkansas	LSU	13	14	13
Gonzaga	Portland	31	32	26

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, January 22, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Seton Hall	St. John’s	9	10	10
Ohio St.	Northwestern	1	2	2
Xavier	Georgetown	10	10	7
Clemson	Virginia Tech	6	8	8
USC	Arizona St.	10	10	10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25 (A Four Factors Metric-Based Ranking)

1. Villanova
2. Kentucky
3. Kansas
4. Virgina
5. North Carolina
6. Gonzaga
7. Louisville
8. Wisconsin
9. West Virginia
10. Baylor
11. Arizona
12. Butler
13. UCLA
14. Creighton
15. Oregon
16. Florida St.
17. Duke
18. Cincinnati
19. Notre Dame
20. Florida
21. Purdue
22. St. Mary’s
23. South Carolina
24. SMU
25. Kansas St.

 

ACC

1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. Louisville
4. Florida St.
5. Duke
6. Notre Dame
7. Clemson
8. Miami (Fla)
9. Wake Forest
10. Syracuse
11. Virginia Tech
12. Pittsburgh
13. North Carolina St.
14. Georgia Tech
15. Boston College

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Butler
3. Creighton
4. Xavier
5. Marquette
6. Seton Hall
7. Providence
8. Georgetown
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Wisconsin
2. Purdue
3. Indiana
4. Northwestern
5. Minnesota
6. Michigan St.
7. Maryland
8. Michigan
9. Ohio St.
10. Illinois
11. Penn St.
12. Nebraska
13. Iowa
14. Rutgers

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Kansas St.
5. Iowa St.
6. Texas Tech
7. TCU
8. Oklahoma St.
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Pac-12

1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. Oregon
4. Utah
5. USC
6. California
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Washington
10. Arizona St.
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Georgia
5. Arkansas
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Mississippi St.
9. Texas A&M
10. Vanderbilt
11. Ole Miss
12. Auburn
13. LSU
14. Missouri

Must Watch Games This Week

Saturday

Notre Dame vs. Syracuse on ESPN at 12PM EST

Florida St. vs. Louisville on ESPN at 2PM EST

UCLA vs. Arizona on CBS at 4PM EST

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin on Big Ten Network at 4:30 PM EST

Kentucky vs. South Carolina on ESPN at 6PM EST

TCU vs. Baylor on ESPNU at 8PM EST

 

Sunday

Ohio St. vs. Northwestern on ESPN at 1PM EST

Watch football afterwards

 

We hoped to have our first 30 Bracketology Guru report of the season today, but to date we have only received lists from 11 gurus.  Apparently, the guys and one gal prefer to wait until the weekend games have been played, so we will try to debut our annual bracketology report Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

 

The Best of the Best and Where They Might Be Vulnerable

Every year about this time, a group of anywhere from a half dozen to 30 college basketball teams rank as possible national title contenders.  In some years, only a handful of teams have reasonable title aspirations.  In some years, there are no clear cut favorites, and many teams could become Cinderella’s with the perfect fit for the glass slipper.

There has been a bit of a paradigm shift in college basketball the last two seasons.  It wasn’t much of a change, but lowering the shot clock from 35 to 30 seconds has done a world of good for the game.  The 14% less time per possession has led to 8-12 more possessions per game for each team.  Teams that three years ago averaged 65 possessions per game are today pushing the ball to the tune of 80 possessions per game.

Contrary to what may have been predicted, offensive efficiency has not gone down.  It has gone up, because the layup and dunk off a fast break when the attacking team has a number’s advantage has led to more points per possession.  The offensive increase has once again made college basketball as exciting as it was in its hey days of the 1960’s and 1970’s.

Also contrary to belief, the increased pace has not created a new UCLA dynasty in the men’s game like U Conn has done with the women’s side.  There are more than enough quality athletes throughout the nation and the world to make 100 teams competitive enough to win an NCAA Tournament game and 25 teams strong enough to reel off six consecutive wins after March 10.

We are not saying that the following 25 teams are the best 25 in the nation.  We have taken a sampling of the top teams from power conferences, the two or three current leaders from among the leagues just shy of being a power conference, as well as a couple of teams from mid-major conferences.

Today’s first look at the contenders will concentrate on showing you how the Four Factors and some of our own PiRate Ratings criteria can isolate where a contender might be vulnerable come NCAA Tournament time.  When it comes time for the teams to have one shining moment, the game changes a little.

In the past, teams that got to the Dance by beating opponents at the foul line sometimes floundered in the tournament, because officials let the players have a little more leeway before blowing their whistles.

Additionally, some teams that went 28-4 in the regular season but did so by running opponents out of the gym or holding onto the ball in a slower-paced offense found that quality opponents like they faced in the Dance did not succumb to their methods of operation.

Likewise, some full court pressure teams that entered the Dance with large scoring margin advantages (often padded by beating poor teams by 40 points), found that quality ball-control teams did not turn the ball over and allow these teams to score in transition.  These pressing teams had little half-court offense and quickly fell to teams that turned the ball over 10 times per game.

Today, we look at 25 chosen teams to tell you where they can exploit other quality teams, and also where they are vulnerable.  As you will see in this first look, there are no teams today that are not totally vulnerable in some way.  Thus, there is no clear-cut favorite to cut down the nets in Phoenix on April 3.  In point of fact, as we see it today, there are a couple dozen quality teams capable of making the Final Four, and yet all of these teams have an Achilles’ Heel and could lose before the Sweet 16 commences.

Before we get into the meat of this report, there could be a few readers not totally familiar with the Four Factors in basketball.  It is not rocket science.  The Four Factors (applies to both offense and defense) are:

1. Field Goal Efficiency
2. Turnover Rate
3. Offensive Reboundin Rate
4. Free Throw Rate

Field Goal Efficiency: [FGM+(3ptM * 0.5)]/FGA

Where FGM is field goals made; 3ptM is three-pointers made; and FGA is field goals attempted.  If your favorite team attempted 60 shots in a game and made 28 of these shots with 8 coming as three-pointers, then their FG Efficiency is [28+(8*0.5)]/60 which equals .533 or 53.3%

The difference between the offensive FG efficiency and the defensive FG efficiency is the FG efficiency margin.  This is by far the most important contributory part to winning in basketball, which is obvious, since the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket and score points, while limiting the opponents from putting the ball in the basket.

Turnover Rate:  TOV/100 Possessions figured as:  [TOV/(FGA+(FTA*0.475)+TOV]*100 and expressed as a percentage

This is a simple metric.  All it seeks to discover is how many turnovers does a team commit for every 1oo possessions.  There is a small adjustment in what qualifies as a possession for this metric as opposed to actual possessions.  Offensive rebounds are not factored into the possession counting here, as once a team secures an offensive rebound, they have already attempted a shot without committing a turnover.  The chance for a turnover after this is limited and can skew the real rate at which a team turns the ball over or forces their opponent to turn the ball over.

If your team committed 14 turnovers in a game in which they took 60 field goal attempts and 25 free throw attempts, their turnover rate for that game was: [14/(60+(25*.475)+14]*10o which comes to: 16.3%

Offensive Rebounding Rate: [OR/(OR+ Opponents’ DR)]*100, 

Where OR is offensive rebounds and DR is defensive rebounds.

If your team had 12 offensive rebounds, and their opponent had 32 defensive rebounds, your team’s offensive rebounding rate was: [12/(12+32)] * 100 which is 27.3%

Obviously, the compliment to this is defensive rebounding rate, which is the same formula applied to the opponents’ rebounding.

Free Throw Rate: FTM/100 Possessions or (FTM/[FGA+(FTA*0.475)-OR+TOV]) *100

There is a difference of opinion on how the expert analytics gurus figure this metric.  Some simple use FTA/FGA.  Some prefer FTM/FGA.  We have heard arguments in favor of both of these metrics, but we really liked a paper written by The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective’s John Ezekowitz, who argued for the metric we chose above in his February 21, 2011, paper entitled Re-examining The Four Factors: The Case For Free Throws Made Per 100 Possessions.

Putting It All Together

The key to the four factors is finding an algorithm in which the results of each team can be turned into some form of a rating or to produce a spread for a game between teams.  What good is it to know that Team A has X, Y, Z, and W rates in the four factors, and their opponent has a little better X and Z, and weaker Y and W rates.  So, where does that get us?  Only when the Four Factors can be turned into a rating of some sort is the data useful to the fan.

The PiRates tried for a few years to come up with an accurate rating from the Four Factors.  Our original mistake was assuming the different factors would not affect the college game any different than it does the NBA, where the numbers were determined to be 40% FG efficiency, 25% turnover rate, 20% offensive rebounding rate, and 15% free throw rate.

This did not make for an accurate rating when applied to college teams and uses to compare them in a point spread sort of way.  Whereas the NBA teams basically play equal schedules in terms of strengths of opponents (once enough games had been played), this cannot be said of the college game, where one team’s schedule could be as much as 20 points per game stronger than another team’s schedule.  Also, in the NBA, every team plays 41 home games and 41 road games.  The top college teams might schedule 19 home games, 3 neutral games, and just 9 road games.

We also realized that not all turnovers are the same.  A steal is worth more than any other type of turnover, because the ball remains live, and the defense frequently finds itself with a 2 on 1 or 3 on 2 fast break opportunity following a high percentage of their steals.  In the college game, more full court pressure can lead to steals that produce a lot of easy baskets, whereas in the NBA, this is a rare occurrence.

After much trial and error, we came up with three separate algorithms that when back-tested in past seasons produced acceptable predictive results.

Now, we can take a look at these 25 teams and make some assumptions based on their four factors data to date.  We can add some PiRate Rating data (like our unique R+T formula) to polish our beliefs.

The numbers you see below are our Blue Rating Scores for each of the Four Factors plus the Strength of Schedule score, the R+T rating, and the teams rating in true road and neutral games (neutral games when a team plays in another gym in their area against an out of town team does not count–like Kansas playing a Big East team in Kansas City).

AAC

Cincinnati: FG 6.4  TO 0.8  OR 0.6  FT 0.2  SOS 56.1  R+T 18.4 Rd W-L 4-2

The Bearcats do not excel in any one factor, but they are better than average in all factors.  Their SOS is good but not great, and their R+T rating is very good.  They will benefit from having extra scoring opportunities.  Cinti will run into trouble against big muscle teams from the power conferences, and they will struggle against teams that play choking man to man defense.  However, this team has enough talent to make it to the second weekend of the Big Dance.

ACC

Virginia: FG 12.0   TO 4.7   OR 4.3   FT -1.2   SOS 59.6   R+T 16.2   Rd W-L 6-1

The Cavaliers are going to be a tough out for any opponent in the NCAA Tournament.  Their style of defense will destroy teams that cannot shoot from the perimeter, and the Cavs will also exploit teams that do not have excellent passers.  To beat UVa, you must be able to pass the ball quick enough from the strong side to the weak side and then penetrate their interior defense for either an open look inside or a pass to a wide open three-point shooter.  Virginia will not beat itself.  Wisconsin and Arizona could be trouble for the Cavs, whereas Virginia could be a tough out for a team like Florida.

North Carolina: FG 6.4  TO 3.7   OR 17.4   FT 7.7   SOS 58.9   R+T 33.6   Rd W-L 7-3

The Tar Heels have the look of a Final Four team.  However, they have some small vulnerabilities.  First, they are not the best shooting team in Chapel Hill history, in fact far from it.  They do make up for this by being the best offensive rebounding team in college basketball.  They are not that shabby in the turnover department either, and thus, they have the best R+T rating in many years.  By the time the season moves into March, UNC will either be unbeatable and peaking at the right time or a major disappointment due to fatigue and injuries.  This is one team we cannot see losing prior to the Sweet 16, as they will be a 1 or 2 seed and no 15 or 16 seed can compete with them, with only a slim chance that a 7 or 8 seed can keep a game within single digits.

The team that beats UNC will be the team that can muscle their way under the basket and make the rebounding part of the equation only a minor Tar Heel victory.  Said team will also have to force the Heels into a few more turnovers than normal and produce some quick points off those turnovers.  West Virginia and Kentucky are the teams that will give UNC fits, while a great shooting team like UCLA or Gonzaga will find that they must do more than shoot lights out to beat this team.

Florida St.: FG 11.2   TO 2.8   OR 2.5   FT 2.4   SOS 58.6   R+T 15.6   Rd W-L 4-2

The Seminoles are going to be a tough match-up for teams outside the ACC that have never played against them.  Their style of play will lead to large victories in the early rounds of the tournament, but once FSU faces stiff competition, their inconsistent style of play will hurt their chances.  There will be many teams with a resume similar to theirs from amongst the power leagues.  FSU will be more like a poor man’s Kentucky.  They might win by 20-30 in the opening game, and they might make it to the Sweet 16 by way of a double digit win in their next game, but once they get to the Sweet 16, the Seminoles should be a quick out against a quality opponent like Villanova, Kansas, or Oregon.

Louisville: FG 6.5   TO 4.8  OR 7.9   FT 1.7   SOS 62.9   R+T 20.3   Rd W-L 5-2

Don’t dismiss this edition of Cardinals.  Rick Pitino knows how to coach in March, and there is enough talent at the Yum Center to guide UL to the Final Four.  The Cards have played a tough schedule to date and pulling off numbers like their current Four Factors against the opposition they have faced is a sign of a top 10 team.  In most years, these numbers would be the best in the nation, and even in a year where there are many great teams, these numbers stick out as among the best.

To beat the Cards, it is going to take a team that can shut off their inside game and force UL to beat them from the perimeter.  Not many teams can do this, but there are some potential teams out there that can send the Cards home, such as Virginia from their own league, Oregon, and Purdue.

Notre Dame: FG 8.5   TO 4.0   OR 0.2   FT 3.8   SOS 56.3   R+T 11.2   Rd W-L 5-2

The Fighting Irish have been consistently good for several years but with also a consistent liability.  Notre Dame has not been a dominant rebounding team since Digger Phelps retired.  While, the Irish have numbers strong enough to indicate they are Sweet 16 worthy, they do not have the dominating inside game that will get them to Phoenix.  A host of quality teams are out there that can hit the glass and limit ND to one shot per possession, and the Irish are bound to face one of them if they make it to the Sweet 16.  Baylor, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Kentucky could send Mike Brey’s bunch home to Indiana.  On the other hand, Notre Dame could be a tough opponent for UCLA, Villanova, or Maryland.

Big 12

West Virginia: FG 7.2    TO 16.0   OR 5.8   FT 5.1   SOS 53.7   R+T 27.2   Rd W-L 5-2

The jury is still out on this team, even though our PiRate Blue metrics say that Coach Bob Huggins has the currently top team in the land.  Huggie Bear’s Mountaineers have to prove they can sustain these fat metric ratings against the top teams.  WVU’s SOS is rather low for a Power Conference team, and they have yet to face Kansas or any tough team on enemy hardwood.  Their toughest road game to date came against Texas Tech, and they flunked that exam.

If WVU can keep their TO rate at astronomically high numbers and also maintain their better than average rebound rate, they are capable of making it to Phoenix.  Whereas many pressing teams eventually run into a team that does not fret the pressure and actually exploits it for points, WVU is more than your typical on the line/up the line gimmick defense.  This team can win by dominating on the glass, getting the ball inside for easy baskets, hitting the three, and playing strong half-court defense.  Once again, until they play Kansas a couple times, Kansas State on the road, as well as road trips to Iowa State and Baylor, it is too early to make a logical call on this team.

Baylor: FG 11.1   TO -0.2   OR 9.5   FT 8.1   SOS 61.8   R+T 20.5   Rd W-L 6-1

 

Scott Drew has been to the Elite 8 before, and this Baylor team looks like his next Elite 8 club.  Until the Bears face a team that can force the issue and pressure the ball, they look like a favorite to advance in each round.  As West Virginia showed, Baylor is not equipped to handle crazy pressure.  Other teams that might exploit this weakness include Virginia, Butler, Kentucky, and Florida.  And, if a mid-major like UNC-Wilmington or Middle Tennessee meets the Bears in the round of 32, Baylor will have to bring their A-game to avoid a major upset loss.

Kansas: FG 11.2   TO 1.7   OR 6.2  FT 0.1   SOS 59.1   R+T 16.4   Rd W-L  4-1

The Jayhawks have been flying under the radar if that is possible, but now that KU has ascended to the top of the charts, they will be on the center stage every game they occupy the penthouse.  Bill Self always has a contender in Lawrence, so this should come as no surprise when we say that the Jayhawks have the right stuff to make it all the way to the Final Four.  They can shoot the ball with the best of them, and they can defend the ball with the best of them.  They are not world-beaters anywhere else, but their other metrics are quite strong.  And, they have produced these numbers against a very good schedule.  KU has another big bonus, something they had when they won the title back in 1988.  With a star like Frank Mason III, teams will have to concentrate and dedicate another defender to stop this star.  That might work against some teams, but KU has five or six other players that can carry the team, so it is impossible to really double up on Mason.  If you are old enough to remember 1988, this reminds us of Danny Manning.

Big East

Villanova: FG 12.1   TO 1.6   OR 4.1    FT 9.6   SOS 61.1    R+T 16.1    Rd W-L 8-1

The Wildcats have proven so far this year to be good enough to repeat as National Champions, and in point of fact, at this point in the season compared to last year, they are a better team.  The rub is that so are about 30 other dominating teams.  VU has been putting teams away by getting their regulars into foul trouble from making quick moves to the basket.  Unlike other teams with very high FT rates, they are less likely to suffer from how the game is called differently in the Big Dance, because officials will blow their whistles on drives to the basket that produce contact.

Considering ‘Nova has put up these gaudy numbers against A+ competition, and they have an 8-1 record away from Philly, they are more than capable of making it back to Phoenix.  But, as Alabama just found out in football, getting back to the title game and winning it, are in different universes.  Villanova wants no part of North Carolina in a rematch.

Creighton: FG 12.5   TO 2.7   OR -3.4   FT 2.7    SOS 58.8   R+T 7.3    Rd W-L 7-0

Every year, one or two highly-rated teams gets sent home from the Dance early by a mid-major team that can exploit the power team’s weakness.  Creighton has the resume of a power team that could be susceptible to an early round loss.  Their negative rebounding rate might be covered up by other assets during the regular season, but come tournament time, just about every opponent they might face will be able to exploit this poor metric.  If their TO rate was really good, they could overcome this liability, but this is not the case, as the Blue Jays are just average or a little below in this department as well.  Their R+T rating is too low to make it to the Elite 8, and the Sweet 16 is their ceiling.  If they make it to the Sweet 16, teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Kentucky can beat them by double digits.

Butler: FG 6.5   TO 5.1   OR 0.1   FT 2.1   SOS 61.3  R+T 10.0   Rd W-L 5-3

When Butler made back-to-back appearances in the National Championship Game, their Four Factors numbers were consistently good but not outstanding in any category.  This Butler team has somewhat inconsistent numbers compared to those Bulldog teams, but at the same time, they are stronger in the turnover rates and have played a much tougher schedule to date than those teams that won five tournament games.

Butler is probably a little too inconsistent this year to win five games and make it to the championship.  They might be better equipped to beat a North Carolina or Kansas than the 2010 and 2011 teams, but this Bulldog edition could easily stub its toe right out of the gates and not get a chance to upset teams like the 2010 and 2011 teams did (Syracuse, Kansas State, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Florida).

Big Ten

The Big Ten has been able to make it to the Final Four multiple times in recent years, but no league team has cut down the nets since Michigan State in 2000 (Maryland was in the ACC when they won in 2002).  There are a couple teams this year capable of giving it a good try.

Wisconsin: FG 8.9  TO 3.9  OR 15.9   FT 2.6    SOS 52.7  R+T 28.8   Rd W-L 4-3

The Badgers have played a rather weak schedule to date, and that could send their current numbers much lower once the better Big Ten opponents have been faced away from Madison.  With Bronson Koenig, Ethan Happ, and Nigel Hayes, the Badgers have a trio of quality players good enough to carry them to the Final Four.  In past years, overall team speed was an issue with this team, but the Badgers have quickness, finesse, and power this year.  UW has been much, much better at home than away from home, and a lot of teams that go 18-0 at home and 9-6 away from home leave the Dance early.  A quality team that is headed to the Elite 8 usually wins 70% or more of its games away from home, and UW is just 4-3 at this point.  Of course, those three losses came to Creighton, North Carolina, and Purdue.  Recent road wins against Marquette and Indiana could be an indication that UW is on the verge of breaking out and becoming a serious contender.

Maryland: FG 6.1  TO 0.5   OR 3.4  FT 7.5  SOS 56.4   R+T 8.8  Rd W-L 6-0

An aside: Back in the days when only one team per conference went to the NCAA Tournament, Maryland had a team that was good enough to win the national championship but was just a couple points away from getting a chance to play in it.  The 1974 Terrapins went 23-5.  Their five losses represent the best five-loss team in history.  Loss number one came at the hands of #1 UCLA in Pauley Pavillion to open the season (Bruins had won more than 70 consecutive games), in a game in which the officiating was very generous to the Bruins and yet UM lost by just one point and had a chance to win the game at the buzzer.  Loss number two came at North Carolina State, who had won 35 of its previous 36 games (lone loss to UCLA) and who would be the eventual national champs.  This loss was a six-point loss, and the Terps led this game into the second half before a Wolf Pack rally won it for the home team.  Loss number three came on the road against #4 North Carolina, yet another contest where UM had a chance to win until late in the second half.  The Terps only home loss came against NC State, who by now would not lose again until the following season.  This loss to the Pack was another close affair with UM losing by six after leading in the second half.  You can probably guess where loss number five came.  Once again, NC State topped UM in the ACC Championship Game in what is probably the best every ACC Title game.  State won by a score of 103-100 in overtime.  Maryland’s 23 wins were mostly lopsided affairs.  Even the two other contests against North Carolina were not close, as the Terps won by 11 in College Park and by 20 in Greensboro in the ACC Tournament semifinals.

What has that got to do with this year’s Terp team?  Nothing, except this year’s UM team will be in the Big Dance even if they do not win the Big Ten Tournament or the regular season title.  However, this year’s UM team is primed to be an early round upset loser, because it is nowhere near as talented as that 1974 team that featured John Lucas, Tom McMillen, and Len Elmore.  That UM team out-shot quality opposition by 11%, out-rebounded them by 11 per game, and outscored them by 17 points per game.

Purdue: FG 10.1  TO -0.7  OR 10.5  FT 8.3   SOS 55.9  R+T 19.7   Rd W-L 5-2

We could give another history lesson on this Big Ten team.  Purdue has been to the Final Four twice before, but both times, it was with teams that played an entirely different style of basketball from this team and from all the teams during the Gene Keady era.

We have a lot of respect for Coach Keady and his successful disciples, including current Boilermaker coach Matt Painter.  However, history has not been kind to the “Keady system” in NCAA Tournament history.  Purdue never made it to the Final Four with all the highly-ranked teams of the 1980’s and 1990’s and seldom made it past the second game.  Case in point, last year, the Boilermakers left the Dance immediately, losing to Arkansas-Little Rock in their first game.

Why is it that Purdue has under-performed so consistently for so many years?  Coach Keady and his disciples strongly advocate an intelligent offensive half-court set and tough man-to-man defense to prevent good shots.  That works well in the regular season, as teams like this routinely play smart ball and beat all the teams they are supposed to beat, and even upset some better teams.  But, when you get into the second week of March, the opposition is usually as good as you at shooting and preventing good shots.  Games are more frequently decided by which team gets more opportunities to shoot.  Thus rebounding and turnover margin play significantly more important roles than they do in the regular season.  Purdue has not been a consistently tough team on the boards, and they do not pressure the passing lanes.

This year’s Boilermaker squad is one of the best rebounding teams in Mackey Arena in a long time, but once again, PU is stinking it up in the turnover rate metric.  The rebounding strength could get Painter’s squad past the first game and maybe even into the Sweet 16, but when the Boilermakers run into a team like Butler, Kentucky, or Florida, or even a Mid-major like UNC-Wilmington or Middle Tennessee, they are going to have a tough time advancing.  And, should they find West Virginia in their bracket…..

Pac-12

UCLA: FG 14.2   TO 0.3   OR -1.0   FT 3.2   SOS 53.4   R+T 10.0   Rd W-L 8-1

This might be the most exciting team to watch, but this UCLA team suffers from the same issues that Purdue suffers from as stated above.  When the Bruins are hot, they can put any team away, and their win at Kentucky showed this.  However, they will run into defenses that can slow them down when they get to March, and the Bruins do not have what it takes to get additional scoring chances through rebounding and turnover margin.  Additionally, the Bruins have played a lot of cupcakes this year, and a lot of their shooting stats have been aided by playing weak defensive teams.  Until they are ousted thought, Lonzo Ball and company promise to give the fan his or her money’s worth.

Oregon: FG 10.2   TO 3.0   OR 7.5   FT 6.5   SOS 57.1   R+T 19.5   Rd W-L 5-2

The Ducks could be a contender for the Final Four.  After a slow start, Oregon has now won 14 consecutive games and looks like the team the pundits expected they would be this season.  The Ducks have a really tough closing stretch in the regular season with seven consecutive tough games between February 4 and 25.  Included in this slate is a three-game stretch against Arizona, UCLA, and USC, with the latter two on the road.  If Oregon can come through this three-week stretch without injuries or undue fatigue, this team can repeat its performance of last year and maybe make it one round past what it did last year.  That would mean they make it to Phoenix.

Arizona: FG  8.3  TO 0.6   OR 7.3   FT 10.4   SOS 58.1   R+T 20.2   Rd W-L 5-2

At first glance, Arizona’s numbers don’t look much different than Oregon’s above.  Look a little closer.  This is a team that relies a bit too much on free throw rate and is vulnerable against a team that can pressure the ball and force turnovers.  Arizona wants no part of West Virginia, but they could fall prey to a lesser pressure team or a team that turns the ball over less than 10 times a game like Virginia.  In their loss to Gonzaga, the Wildcats turned the ball over nine times in the first half and didn’t shoot well, and Gonzaga pulled out to a double digit lead.  Arizona did get to the foul line several times, but they missed too many foul shots to get back in the game.  This is likely to happen to them in an NCAA Sweet 16 game if UA makes it that far.

SEC

Kentucky: FG  9.1  TO 6.7   OR 7.4   FT 4.7   SOS 61.1   R+T 22.3   Rd W-L 6-1

This is always a tough team to figure out.  Annually, John Calipari recruits the top talent in the nation to Lexington, and Kentucky has better talent than every team on its schedule.  However, that talent is almost always freshmen, and even five McDonald’s All-Americans as college freshmen are bound to play a bit inconsistently.  On any given night, these future NBA stars are liable to blow out an average team by 30 to 40 points.  On any given night, these future NBA stars are liable to fiddle around and allow a mediocre team to stay in contention.

In Kentucky’s favor, these freshmen will have 33 to 35 games of experience by the time the NCAA Tournament begins, and the Wildcats will have a 1 or 2 seed, able to get to the Sweet 16 just by showing up.  Once at the Sweet 16, this team will have the talent and tools to keep winning, but they will still be just raw enough to lay an egg and go home with a disappointing loss.

It will take a muscle team to beat Kentucky, one that can throw its weight around on the glass, make their fouls count more like unnecessary roughness penalties in football, and has the ability to outscore the Wildcats from behind the arc.

Florida: FG 3.1  TO 6.6  OR 1.7   FT 8.9   SOS 63.0   R+T 11.4   Rd W-L 8-3

Here is a really interesting team.  At first glance, this Florida team looks like many of the Florida teams under former coach Billy Donovan.  The Gators’ ball-hawking defense tends to lead to more scoring opportunities for the orange and blue than for their opponents.  However, the really good Gator teams under Donovan played incredible half-court defense.  This Gator team is a bit weak defending inside, and that will be their downfall in March.  The Gators are adequate but not great shooting the ball, and when they don’t force a turnover, they are not great at stopping the ball from going through the opponents’ basket.

One thing in UF’s favor is their schedule has prepared them to play top-flight teams.  Outside of the league Florida played Seton Hall, Miami, Gonzaga, Florida State, and Duke.

South Carolina: FG 7.8   TO 4.9   OR 4.6   FT -5.4   SOS 56.2   R+T 13.9   Rd W-L 4-2

You have to look at South Carolina’s statistics a bit differently than just viewing their numbers.  This is a tale of two teams.  There is the USC team that is 11-0 when its best player, Sindarius Thornwell has been healthy enough to play, and there is the USC team that is 3-3 when Thornwell has not played.

The bad news for SEC teams is that Thornwell is close to 100% well again, and the Gamecocks are 4-0 in the league because of it.  A healthy Thornwell is a threat to record a triple double or score 20 points and pull down a dozen boards, while playing exemplary defense.

If the Gamecocks stay healthy this year, they look like a near lock to make the Dance, and once they get there, we have faith in Coach Frank Martin that they will play multiple games.  USC’s defense is tournament worthy, and they have just enough offense to pull away in the second half.  Their major liability is at the foul line, where they commit more than an average number of fouls.  However, this stat suffered considerably during Thornwell’s absence.  Since his return, the Gamecocks have a much better showing.

The Rest

Gonzaga: FG 15.6  TO 1.6   OR  2.6  FT 5.6   SOS 55.9  R+T 16.9   Rd W-L 7-0

Gonzaga faces a similar task that Wichita State faced in 2014, when they went 34-0 in the regular season.  The Bulldogs are the last undefeated team standing at 17-0, and the way they dominated St. Mary’s Saturday night, many sports professionals are calling for an undefeated regular season.  They still have to go to St. Mary’s, and they have to play at BYU, so they could still lose one or two regular season games this year.

Gonzaga has been a number one seed before as well as the top-ranked team in the nation, and things did not go all that well for the Bulldogs.  In 2013, the Zags entered NCAA Tournament play with a 31-2 record.  They almost became the first number one seed to lose to a 16-seed, when they had to hold on to narrowly edge Southern University in the Round of 64.  Then, GU fell in the Round of 32 to Wichita State, and the Shockers rolled to the Final Four from there.

Might things be different this year for Mark Few’s squad?  Gonzaga looks a lot like UCLA.  They are not quite as good shooting the ball, but they are a tad better defending the ball.  They are considerably better on the boards, but by the time the Dance begins to tap, their strength of schedule will have dropped to a point where they may not be ready to face a quality team in the Sweet 16.  The Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga team that made it to the Elite 8 was more equipped for the tournament than this year’s squad, so we believe Gonzaga will fall in the Sweet 16 round.

Nevada: FG 5.4   TO -1.8   OR 3.5   FT 9.8   SOS 52.3   R+T 8.0   Rd W-L 8-3

If you consider Gonzaga not to be a mid-major, then Nevada is the best non Power Conference team in the West this year, but the Wolfpack are a paper tiger.  They do not have the numbers to be a serious contender like some former Mountain West Conference teams in the past.  Their low R+T number coming from a below average schedule strength means Nevada is likely to exit the Dance quickly and by double digits.  We wanted to include them here today so you can compare them to the two mid-majors most likely to advance to the second weekend this year.

UNC-Wilmington: FG 3.8   TO 7.1   OR 3.7   FT -2.0  SOS 51.2   R+T 12.9  Rd W-L 9-2

UNCW gave Duke a big scare last year in the Round of 64, and this year’s team is better, capable of making a run to the Sweet 16.  Coach Kevin Keatts is a Rick Pitino disciple, and we would not be shocked to see Keatts taking over a big time program sooner rather than later.  He has all the tools to be a star on the big stage, and his team plays like it deserves a shot on basketball’s Broadway.

UNCW’s biggest liability is their negative FT rate.  This has come about because the Seahawks commit a lot of fouls with their pressure defense.  We tend to believe that some of this has been because they have played a lot of games on the road, where the officials whistled them for more fouls than they would have received had they been at home.  When the NCAA Tournament begins, a lot of the plays in which they might have been whistled for a foul in the regular season will no longer draw a foul call.

UNCW is the poor man’s West Virginia, and they could easily be this year’s Stephen F. Austin.  Beware if your favorite big time program makes the Tournament and they draw this team, and your team is like Purdue, Baylor, UCLA, Arizona, or Creighton.  The Seahawk press can produce a quick burst of points and put your team behind the eight ball.

Middle Tennessee: FG 3.7  TO 5.0  OR 7.4  FT -2.5  SOS 56.3  R+T 17.5  Rd W-L 8-1

If you like UNCW’s chances, then you’ll love Middle Tennessee’s chances this year.  This is the CUSA team that upset Michigan State in last year’s tournament, and this year’s Blue Raider squad is maybe 10 points better than last year’s group.  Middle Tennessee actually played UNCW over the Thanksgiving holiday and beat the Seahawks by five.  The Blue Raiders went on the road to Ole Miss and destroyed the Rebels in the first half with a 29-point halftime lead before coasting to a 15-point win.  They repeated the performance against SEC neighbor Vanderbilt winning by 23 and never being challenged.

The Blue Raiders could have 30 wins when the NCAA Tournament begins, and it would not surprise us if they receive a seed as high as 9 or 10.  Of course, this would mean they would play a 1 or 2 seed in the Round of 32 should they win their first game.  The Blue Raiders’ fans should root for your team to draw a team like Purdue, Notre Dame, Creighton, Butler, or Maryland in the first game and not someone like West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, Oregon, or Kentucky.  Of course, these teams are most likely to be encountered after the opening game, which means the Blue Raiders should be a hot pick in the Round of 64.

We did not include the 25 best teams in this presentation.  There are many other quality teams like Indiana, Duke, Miami, TCU, Xavier, Akron, Illinois State, California, Utah, USC, and New Mexico State.

We hope you enjoyed this piece and learned a little about how the Four Factors has been part of the new analytical study of basketball.

Coming Friday: We take our next stab at the Field of 68, and if we can get our gurus to send us the information in time, we will debut our annual Bracketology Guru report.  Shout out to the Gurus that have not done so–please return the email we sent you to tell us if you plan to participate this year.  If we do not have enough information to debut our guru composite, we will attempt to select 68 teams ourselves.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For January 14-15, 2017

PiRate Red-White-Blue Spreads For The Weekend

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, January 14, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Clemson	Virginia	-1	-4	-6
Louisville	Duke	4	1	4
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	5	1	7
North Carolina	Florida St.	9	8	3
Virginia Tech	Notre Dame	6	-1	-1
Syracuse	Boston College	8	14	9
Kansas	Oklahoma St.	10	13	14
Texas	West Virginia	-16	-15	-6
Kansas St.	Baylor	1	-4	-9
TCU	Iowa St.	2	-1	3
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	6	-4	-2
Georgetown	Connecticut	15	8	9
Providence	Seton Hall	-3	-1	-1
St. John’s	Villanova	-4	-15	-16
Butler	Xavier	3	4	8
Marquette	DePaul	19	17	13
Penn St.	Minnesota	2	-4	-4
Michigan	Nebraska	1	9	1
Illinois	Maryland	1	1	6
California	Washington St.	13	17	19
Utah	UCLA	-11	-8	-1
Stanford	Washington	2	4	10
Oregon	Oregon St.	27	26	26
Florida	Georgia	11	12	10
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	3	-1	-6
LSU	Alabama	7	-2	-3
Kentucky	Auburn	23	24	23
Arkansas	Missouri	15	16	15
South Carolina	Ole Miss	9	8	6
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	-1	2	6
Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, January 15, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
North Carolina St.	Georgia Tech	14	11	14
Indiana	Rutgers	16	18	19
Ohio St.	Michigan St.	4	2	-4
Northwestern	Iowa	1	6	8
Colorado	USC	1	-1	4

 

The PiRate Top 25 For January 13, 2017

1. West Virginia
2. Kansas
3. Kentucky
4. Villanova
5. Virginia
6. North Carolina
7. Gonzaga
8. UCLA
9. Florida St.
10. Baylor
11. St. Mary’s
12. Wisconsin
13. Louisville
14. Duke
15. Butler
16. Arizona
17. Florida
18. Cincinnati
19. Creighton
20. Oregon
21. Notre Dame
22. Purdue
23. Xavier
24. Wichita St.
25. Iowa St.

ACC

1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. Florida St.
4. Louisville
5. Duke
6. Notre Dame
7. Clemson
8. Virginia Tech
9. Miami (Fla)
10. Wake Forest
11. Pittsburgh
12. Syracuse
13. North Carolina St.
14. Georgia Tech
15. Boston College

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Butler
3. Creighton
4. Xavier
5. Seton Hall
6. Marquette
7. Providence
8. Georgetown
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Wisconsin
2. Purdue
3. Minnesota
4. Michigan St.
5. Indiana
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan
8. Maryland
9. Ohio St.
10. Iowa
11. Illinois
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Big 12

1. West Virginia
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Iowa St.
5. Kansas St.
6. Texas Tech
7. Oklahoma St.
8. TCU
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Pac-12

1. UCLA
2. Arizona
3. Oregon
4. California
5. USC
6. Utah
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Washington
10. Arizona St.
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Georgia
5. Arkansas
6. Alabama
7. Texas A&M
8. Vanderbilt
9. Tennessee
10. Ole Miss
11. Mississippi St.
12. Auburn
13. LSU
14. Missouri

Games To Watch This Weekend Because They Will Be Fun To Watch

Best 3 Saturday

Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s   (ESPN2 at 10 PM EST)

Butler vs. Xavier   (Fox Sports 1 at 2 PM EST)

Clemson vs. Virginia  (WatchESPN at 12:00 PM EST)

Best of The Rest

Louisville vs. Duke   (ESPN at 12:00 PM EST)

North Carolina vs. Florida St.  (ESPN at 2 PM EST)

Kansas St. vs. Baylor   (ESPNU at 4:30 PM EST)

Utah vs. UCLA   (Pac-12 Network at 6 PM EST)

Princeton vs. Yale   (ESPN3 at 8 PM EST)

Coming Next Week–We take the top national contenders and break down what area of the game an opponent must master in order to beat each one.  We’ll use our Four Factors Algorithms to analyze where each of the top teams might have an Achilles Heel, and maybe which teams have no apparent weakness.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For January 7-8, 2017

Early Look At Mid and Low Major Conferences
As we take our first look at the conferences that should receive just one NCAA Tournament bid, we are in total agreement among the lot of us that 22 leagues will definitely produce just one tournament team–the winner of their conference tournament, or in the case of the Ivy League, the regular season conference championship, and it is likely that a 23rd league will receive just one bid.

Let’s take a look at the 23 probable one-bid leagues.

America East
Vermont, MD.-Baltimore Co., UMass-Lowell, and Stony Brook are tied for first, but only with 1-0 conference marks. Vermont is 11-5 overall, with two losses to top 25 teams.

Atlantic Sun
Conference play has yet to begun, but Florida Gulf Coast and Jacksonville look strong in the pre-conference. FGCU lost at Michigan State by just one point, while Jacksonville sports the top won-loss record at 12-5. We believe overall that this league is stronger than it has been in recent years, but no at-large bid is possible this year.

Big Sky
Eastern Washington, Southern Utah, and Weber State have begun the conference race at 2-0, with Montana a half-game back at 2-1. EWU owns a hot home court advantage, and they already have four overtime wins in their 15 games played.

Big South
With losses by 55 to Creighton, 37 to George Mason, and 31 to Texas Tech, you would not expect Longwood to be on top in the conference race at 3-0, but the Lancers from tiny Farmville, Virginia, own first place by themselves by a game over Radford, UNC-Asheville, Winthrop, Campbell, and Liberty. UNCA lost at Ohio State by a bucket.

Big West
It’s a down year in this league, as no team looks capable of avoiding a 15 or 16-seed. Most of the members in this league perform poorly away from home, and we expect this year’s race to be won with a record as low as 10-6. UC-Irvine, Long Beach State, and UC-Davis appear to be the top teams, but there is not much separating the teams at this point. While somewhat mediocre, this league could put on one of the most exciting conference tournament’s this season.

Colonial Athletic
UNC-Wilmington is on the cusp of competing for a spot on the bubble, but at this point, it looks like they would have to win the CAA Tournament to get into the Big Dance. The Seahawks join Charleston, Northeastern, and James Madison at 3-0 in league play. Northeastern is the hot team at this point. The Huskies have won six games in a row, including four on the road, with one of those coming at Michigan State.

Conference USA
Middle Tennessee is 2-0 in the league and 12-3 overall, as well as 2-0 against SEC teams, but the Blue Raiders would be a long shot in the at-large sweepstakes this year. If Middle wins the automatic bid with a record in the vicinity of 29-5, they could receive an 11 seed and possibly a 10 seed. Chief challengers to the Blue Raiders this year are Marshall, Louisiana Tech, and Western Kentucky. Keep an eye on Marshall, as their unique fast-paced philosophy can give the Thundering Herd a big advantage against teams lacking depth, especially at conference tournament time.

Horizon
No, it’s not a Super Bowl preview, but Oakland and Green Bay look like the top two teams in this league. Actually, both of these teams are close runners-up to Valparaiso at this point. The Crusaders are 1-0 in the conference and 11-3 overall, with wins over Alabama, BYU, and Rhode Island. Northern Kentucky and Wright State have shown signs of moving up into the top tier with the big three.

Ivy
This is still the one holdout league that does not sanction a post-season conference tournament. Thus, one hot team can become the first official invitee to the Big Dance, but in recent years, this has not happened. There is no clear-cut favorite to win the crown as the first conference games commence next weekend. Princeton, Yale, Harvard, and Penn look to be the leading contenders at this point, but this group is not setting the woods on fire.

Metro Atlantic
After a sluggish first month of the season, Canisius has found its groove. The Golden Griffins have reeled off seven consecutive wins, averaging 88.6 points per game. With approaching road games with Iona and Fairfield, if Canisius wins both, they will be in the driver’s seat in the MAAC. Pre-season favorite Monmouth has not been as strong as expected and just lost three games in a row. Still, you cannot dismiss the Hawks, as they have non-conference win over Memphis and an overtime loss to South Carolina. Monmouth beat Canisius and can gain command by pulling off the sweep when they face them in Buffalo on January 16.

Mid-American
The MAC once was worthy of multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament, but in recent years, this league has been down some. Akron, Ohio, and Eastern Michigan have separated a bit from the rest of the pack in this league, and these three top contenders are just talented enough to compete in the Round of 64. Home court advantanges are rather strong in this league, so expect the teams to beat up on each other, leaving no team with a conference mark better than 14-4.

Mideastern Athletic
The MEAC has frequently been given #15 and #16 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, but this league consistently produces teams capable of pulling off huge upsets. The league does not get the credit it deserves, because the teams tend to begin the season slowly and develop as the year progresses. We like what UNC-Central has done to this point, and it would not surprise us if the Eagles make a run to 20 regular season wins. UNCC won at Missouri and led at LSU by as much as 13, before the Tigers came back to win in the final minute.

Missouri Valley
This is a caveat one-bid league. Wichita State would be on the bubble if the Shockers won 25 games but not the MVC Tournament title. However, at this point, we do not see a serious contender to knock WSU off the perch at Arch Madness. Illinois State currently shares first with the Shockers with a 3-0 league mark, but WSU looks to be double digits better than any league opponent. Sure, some team is liable to upset the Shockers, but we don’t see WSU losing more than two conference games, and they have as good a chance at running the table in the league as the do at losing twice.

Mountain West
The MWC has taken quite a tumble this year, as this looks like a sure one-bid league. Nevada and Boise State are this year’s quality clubs, but they do not have at-large approved resumes. Normal power San Diego State has begun league play at 0-2, so this does not look like the Aztecs’ year.

Northeast
It looks like a strong possibility that the conference tournament champion in this league will be headed to the opening round (first four) in Dayton. The NEC is rather weak this year, even though second division Wagner has a win at Connecticut. Fairleigh Dickinson has a game and a half lead in the race with a perfect 3-0 mark, but the Knights tumbled off their horses outside of league play. Keep an eye on Long Island. The Blackbirds are just 9-7 and 2-1 in the league, but most of their losses have been close, and they did beat St. John’s.

Ohio Valley
In past years, both Murray State and Belmont have done quite well in NCAA Tournament play. The two contenders already have moved to the top of the standings in their respective divisions, and it looks like they might square off when the bid is on the line in March.

Patriot
Bucknell and Boston U are tied at 3-0 in league play with Loyola (MD), Holy Cross, and Lafayette a game back at 2-1. Lehigh looked like a top contender in the preseason, taking Xavier to the final gun before losing by 3 and winning at Mississippi State, but the Mountain Hawks lost at home to Loyola to fall to 1-2 in league play.

Southern
This will be an exciting conference race with five teams competing for the regular season title. Furman, East Tennessee, Chattanooga, Samford, and UNC-Greensboro are about equal, and the five could stay within two games of each other all season. A multiple tie in the 14-4 and 13-5 range is quite possible.

Southland
Stephen F. Austin has lost the magic, as it left town for Stillwater, Oklahoma. Now, this league is wide open. New Orleans, and Nicholls State, two teams not expected to contend for league honors, currently are unbeaten in league play.

Southwestern Athletic
In recent years, the SWAC champion has known it would be headed to Dayton, and chances are strong that could happen again this year. In recent years, multiple league members have been ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores, but that number has been reduced to just Alcorn State this year, and the Braves are an also-ran in the SWAC this year. Jackson State and Texas Southern have begun league play at 2-0, with Arkansas Pine-Bluff at 1-0. Grambling and Southern are 1-1, and most of their out of conference losses have been closer than normal for this league. We believe Southern might be the best representative for this league this year.

Summit
Bigger schools better keep an eye on this league. Whoever draws the conference tournament champion better not overlook their opponent, because their is quality in numbers in the Summit League this season. North Dakota State got hot at the right time, and the Bison are 3-0 in league play. Fort Wayne can play quality defense, bang the boards, and run the fast break like a team from the 1970’s. The Mastodons beat Indiana and gave a good game against Notre Dame. They can score points in spurts, and they average close to 90 points per game.

Sun Belt
UT-Arlington is off to a 12-3 start with a 2-0 mark in conference play. Included in those dozen wins is a big upset of Saint Mary’s, but as each day passes, that win does not look so much like an upset, just more like one really good team beating another really good team. Still, the Mavericks do not have enough on their resume to contend for a bubble spot. Arkansas State is also 2-0 in the league, but the Red Wolves do not have a signature win that gives them a shot at the bubble. Their win at Georgetown could look better in March than it does now, but still we see only one team making the dance from this league.

Western Athletic
New Mexico State is 1-0/14-2, but the Aggies’ best win is only against Arizona State. This is not enough to merit bubble consideration, so if NMSU runs the table in the league and then loses in the WAC Finals, they could be NIT bound at 30-3. UT Rio Grande Valley is a hot team with seven wins in eight games, and the Vaqueros can fill the nets with buckets, but they don’t play enough defense to do damage in the Dance.

Multiple Bid Leagues
45 bids remain after the 23 one bid leagues are accounted for. Those 45 bids will go to nine conferences, an average of five per league. Of course, some of the nine leagues will receive just two or three bids, unless an upset winner earns the automatic bid. Let’s look at those now.

American Athletic
Cincinnati and SMU appear to be in good shape for now. The Bearcats (2-0/12-2) are ranked in the top 25 and have a win at Iowa State. Cinti can strengthen their hold on an at-large bid with a win at Houston (3-0/12-3) tomorrow. SMU (3-0/13-3) currently owns a nine-game winning streak, but they have yet to record a win over a top 25 team (they have yet to play one). They do own a win over Pittsburgh as well as losses to Michigan and USC. Central Florida is in the mix at 3-0/12-3. They present a monster matchup problem with 7 foot 6 inch center Tacko Fall hitting 80% of his shots (95% are within a foot of the basket or dunks) and pulling down double digit rebounds while playing a one-man zone in the low post.

Atlantic 10
Dayton and Rhode Island look like the class of the league at this point, but both teams have a watchful eye on VCU. Two of the three should make the Dance, and it is possible that this league will send a third team there as well, but for now, we are sticking with two for sure.

West Coast
Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should both get bids, but SMC cannot afford to slip and lose more than two conference games. A win at Dayton is not enough to guarantee the Gaels an at-large bid. They will have to go 12-2 in league play or beat Gonzaga one time out of three.

39 Bids Left for 6 Power Leagues
Of the remaining six power leagues, we will give only 3 bids to the SEC. Kentucky, Florida, and one other team from among South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama should receive bids.
The Pac-12 will send 3 or 4 teams. UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon look good at this point, while USC and California vying for a possible fourth bid.

We are going with 5 Big East bids: Villanova, Xavier, Butler, Creighton, and Marquette.

6 bids go to the Big Ten: Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, and either Northwestern, Ohio State, or Michigan State.

The Big 12 could send 8 teams dancing: Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Oklahoma State would all be in the tournament if the season ended today.

The ACC will reign supreme in this year’s Dance Party. As of this moment, we have an incredible 10 teams in the tournament: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest all have tourney-worthy resumes.

This brings us to 65 bids. The remaining three bids are reserved for three possible conference tournament surprise winners. If the three do not emerge, then the at-large possibles to secure the bids would come from a pool of these teams: an additional SEC team from the group of Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama; yet another ACC team from among Syracuse, North Carolina State, and Pittsburgh; Houston from the AAC; an additional Big Ten team from the group of Northwestern, Michigan State, and Ohio State; an additional Pac-12 team from the USC/Cal pairing; and Wichita State, should the Shockers finish highly-ranked but fail to win the MVC Tournament.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 10
1. West Virginia
2. Villanova
3. Kentucky
4. Baylor
5. Kansas
6. Duke
7. North Carolina
8. Gonzaga
9. UCLA
10. Virginia

ACC
1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Louisville
5. Florida State
6. Clemson
7. Notre Dame
8. Miami (FL)
9. Virginia Tech
10. Wake Forest
11. Pittsburgh
12. Syracuse
13. North Carolina St.
14. Georgia Tech
15. Boston College

Big 12
1. West Virginia
2. Baylor
3. Kansas
4. Texas Tech
5. Iowa St.
6. Kansas St.
7. Oklahoma St.
8. TCU
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Big East
1. Villanova
2. Xavier
3. Butler
4. Creighton
5. Marquette
6. Seton Hall
7. Georgetown
8. Providence
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten
1. Purdue
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan
4. Indiana
5. Minnesota
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan St.
8. Ohio St.
9. Maryland
10. Illinois
11. Iowa
12. Nebraska
13. Penn St.
14. Rutgers

Pac-12
1. UCLA
2. Arizona
3. Oregon
4. USC
5. California
6. Utah
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC
1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Arkansas
5. Georgia
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Vanderbilt
9. Texas A&M
10. Ole Miss
11. LSU
12. Auburn
13. Mississippi St.
14. Missouri

This Weekend’s Spreads

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, January 7, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	4	4	-4
Duke	Boston College	24	28	24
Florida St.	Virginia Tech	8	10	13
Georgia Tech	Louisville	-12	-16	-19
Notre Dame	Clemson	3	5	5
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	14	15	9
West Virginia	TCU	13	15	6
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	9	8	9
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	10	11	21
Kansas	Texas Tech	11	11	13
Iowa St.	Texas	11	11	8
Georgetown	Butler	-3	-4	-1
Seton Hall	DePaul	14	15	16
Providence	Dayton	-1	1	-4
Xavier	St. John’s	14	16	15
Villanova	Marquette	11	13	19
Penn St.	Michigan St.	-1	-3	-4
Michigan	Maryland	6	7	-1
Indiana	Illinois	10	11	2
Washington	Oregon St.	10	12	10
Arizona St.	Utah	-1	-2	-2
Washington St.	Oregon	-11	-16	-19
Arizona	Colorado	12	11	15
Georgia	Missouri	14	14	17
South Carolina	Texas A&M	7	5	8
LSU	Mississippi St.	6	4	11
Florida	Tennessee	12	12	15
Auburn	Ole Miss	3	1	-6
Alabama	Vanderbilt	3	3	1
Kentucky	Arkansas	16	17	17

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, January 8, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Nebraska	Northwestern	1	-2	4
Purdue	Wisconsin	4	3	7
Iowa	Rutgers	9	10	8
Minnesota	Ohio St.	6	6	13
Virginia	Wake Forest	10	15	12
UCLA	Stanford	19	18	8
USC	California	4	2	1

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For December 29, 2016

Welcome to the PiRate Ratings’ return to college basketball coverage.  There are changes in the numbers this season, and we are excited to debut our annual Red-White-and-Blue Ratings for the 2016-17 college basketball season.

First, we have tweaked our Blue formula algorithm this year by giving a little more emphasis to true shooting percentage and the complimentary defensive metric in limiting shooting percentage.  In recent seasons, turnover margin has begun to mean a little bit less than it did a decade ago, and there are fewer truly dominant rebounding teams out there.  So, the college game for the time being is all about making shots and preventing the other team from making shots.  It sounds silly, as that should be all that matters (hitting baskets and stopping the other team from making them), but turnovers and rebounds gives teams more opportunities to take shots and make shots, while reducing the number of opportunities teams give to their opponents.  Rebounding and turnover rates are still vital, as we merely reduced the percentage of the total contribution by a couple basis points.

Next up, we plan on totally revising our NCAA  Tournament Bracketology data this season.  Our old formula has been performing with mediocre results in recent years, and we have decided to go 80% Four Factors and 20% PiRate Criteria this season and see what happens.  The R+T factor will still be part of our presentation, as it is still very effective at weeding out pretenders from contenders.

Until the Big Dance, we will concentrate our efforts on conference games and big non-conference games between teams from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC.  Because we have to input the stats for every team for every game, it is not possible to do this for every Division I game.  But, because all we need for our ratings are the current updated stats, we can always rate any game, thus, if we want to rate a Missouri Valley Conference big game, we can add it to the slate.

Additionally, following the New Year’s, expect our chosen selections to run just one day a week, most likely Friday, and it will include that weekend’s games.  We will also provide commentary on the entire division, as we tend to receive a lot of readership when we report on the low-major and mid-major conferences.

Let’s get started with this week’s pre-New Year’s report.

PiRate Top 10

thru games of 12/28/16

1. Villanova
2. Virginia
3. Duke
4. West Virginia
5. Kansas
6. Baylor
7. North Carolina
8. Louisville
9. Wisconsin
10. Kentucky

ACC

1. Virginia
2. Duke
3. North Carolina
4. Louisville
5. Florida St.
6. Clemson
7. Notre Dame
8. Miami
9. Virginia Tech
10. Syracuse
11. Wake Forest
12. Pittsburgh
13. North Carolina St.
14. Georgia Tech
15. Boston College

This league is so loaded this year that #13 North Carolina State is strong enough to compete for the SEC Championship.  Only the bottom two are considered out of the running for an NCAA  Tournament bid.

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Butler
3. Xavier
4. Creighton
5. Marquette
6. Seton Hall
7. Georgetown
8. Providence
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Until they lose, reigning national champion Villanova rules the roost in the league and nationally.  The Wildcats had a close one last night against the cellar dweller, but one game does not knock them off their perch, as long as it is a win.  As of today, it looks like five teams would make the Dance.

Big Ten

1. Wisconsin
2. Purdue
3. Michigan
4. Indiana
5. Northwestern
6. Ohio St.
7. Maryland
8. Minnesota
9. Michigan St.
10. Iowa
11. Illinois
12. Nebraska
13. Penn St.
14. Rutgers

It looks like Northwestern is in line to finally make it to the Big Dance.  A strong 12-2 start for the Wildcats needs only a winning conference record and one conference tournament win to get that elusive bid.

Big 12

1. West Virginia
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Texas Tech
5. Kansas St.
6. Iowa St.
7. TCU
8. Oklahoma St.
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Yes, the Longhorns and Sooners bring up the rear as conference play is set to begin.  The other 8 teams look to be NCAA Tournament bound as of today with the top 3 teams the equal of the top three in the ACC.

Pac-12

1. UCLA
2. Arizona
3. Oregon
4. USC
5. Colorado
6. California
7. Utah
8. Stanford
9. Washington
10. Arizona St.
11. Oregon St.
12. Washington St.

Even with UCLA’s last second loss at Oregon, the Bruins stay atop the Pac-12 standings.  This league looks like a 4 or 5-bid league as of now.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Texas A&M
5. Arkansas
6. Georgia
7. Ole Miss
8. Alabama
9. Tennessee
10. Vanderbilt
11. Auburn
12. LSU
13. Mississippi St.
14. Missouri

Kentucky and Florida rank well ahead of the other dozen in this league this year.  South Carolina, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Georgia sit on a separate shelf above the remaining eight teams.  This could be as little as a two-bid league but no more than a four-bid league as of now.

Low and Mid-Major Teams in the mix for at-large bids

It is getting more difficult to label Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s as Mid-Major teams.  The two WCC powers are both in our top 25 teams this week.

Cincinnati out of the American Conference is really a power team, even though the AAC has lost some prestige.  SMU is in the same boat, but the Mustangs need to do a little more work to be a for sure at-large team this year.

Wichita State has earned the same privilege as Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.  The Shockers belong in the list of at-large possibles.

The only real low-major team in consideration for a possible at-large bid would be UNC-Wilmington from the Colonial Athletic Association.  UNCW has the talent to get to the Sweet 16, and they scared the daylights out of Duke in the NCAA Tournament last year.

This Week’s Selections

Normally, this would be a list for Saturday/Sunday games, but due to the New Year’s Holiday, we are beginning with a list of Thursday games.  Once again, we will concentrate only on the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC conference games, as well as any games among highly ranked teams.

Each Rating is derived from the Four Factors with separate algorithmic equations.  An explanation of the Four Factors follows below.

Games Scheduled for:	Thursday, December 29, 2016
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Texas A&M	Tennessee	8	11	9
Auburn	Georgia	1	2	-3
Ole Miss	Kentucky	-12	-7	-8
LSU	Vanderbilt	2	5	-3
Arkansas	Florida	-1	-4	-7
St. John’s	Butler	-6	-8	-11
Gonzaga	Pepperdine	25	24	28
Loyola Marymount	Saint Mary’s	-10	-11	-14

The Four Factors in basketball are:

1. Effective Field Goal Percentage
2. Turnover Rate
3. Offensive Rebounding Rate
4. Free Throw Rate

These factors apply to both offense and defense, so in effect each team has Eight Factors.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

[FG +(0.5*3pt)]/FGA (expressed as a percentage)

Where FG is field goals made, 3pt is 3-point shots made, and FGA is field goal attempts

If a team makes 25 of 55 field goals and sinks 6 three-pointers, their EFG% is:

[25+(0.5*6)]/55 = 50.9% or 50.9

Turnover Rate

TOV/[FGA+(0.475*FTA)+TOV] (expressed as a percentage)

Where TOV is turnovers, FGA is Field Goal Attempts, and FTA is Free Throw Attempts

If a team commits 12 turnovers, takes 55 field goal attempts and 23 free throw attempts, their turnover rate is:

12/[55+(.475*23)+12]=15.4%

Offensive Rebounding %

OR/(OR+Opponents DR) (expressed as a percentage)

Where OR is offensive rebounds and DR is defensive rebounds

If a team gets 8 offensive rebounds, and their opponents get 26 defensive rebounds, their Offensive Rebounding % is:

8/(8+26) = 23.5%

Free Throw Rate

Basketball analytics gurus differ on how to rate this stat.  We align with those that favor free throws made per 100 possessions.

FT/[FGA+(0.475*FTA)+TOV-OR] (expressed as a percentage)

Where FT is Free throws made, FGA is field goal attempts, TOV is turnovers, and OR is offensive rebounds

If a team made 17 out of 23 free throw attempts with 55 field goal attempts, 12 turnovers, and 8 offensive rebounds, their FT Rate is:

17/[55+(0.475*23)+12-8] = 24.3%

The Red, White, and Blue Ratings use these statistics (both offensively and defensively) for the first 8 parts of the equation.  Part Number 9 is Strength of Schedule, and each rating adjusts a little differently for this.  Part Number 10 is Home Court Advantage (as well as occasional away from home disadvantage for teams that play much worse away from home than at home).

These 10 parts are then put through three separate algorithms to come up with three different ratings.  The difference in the ratings is the spread for the game.

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 27-28, 2016

It is about that time.  In just four days, the first conference tournaments will commence, starting the Championship Fortnight and another three weeks of March Madness (bleeding into April) that basketball junkies wait for each year like it is a month of Black Fridays for shopaholics.

Yes, you can feel the symptoms coming on.  Thousands upon thousands of basketball fans will begin to falsely raise the reported cases of influenza on days in which their team is playing a weekday game during working hours.  Call it 8th-seeditis, a malady that can last one or two days when a fan’s favorite team must play that 2:00 PM game on Thursday and possibly Friday if they win the first game.

We here at the PiRate Ratings can no longer provide our doctor’s notes to your employer.  We can no longer buy that much ink, so you will have to go to your local walk-in clinic on the eve of your team of choice’s run.

 

Here is your appetizer course.   These 11 leagues kick things off next week with conference tournament action.

Starting Tuesday, March 1

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
Atlantic Sun	Higher Seeds	March 1, 3, 6	Stetson Ineligible. 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor	Time	TV
1	North Florida	8	USC Upstate	7:30 PM	ESPN3
2	N.J.I.T.	7	Stetson	7:30 PM	ESPN3
3	Jacksonville	6	Lipscomb	7:00 PM	ESPN3
4	Florida-G.C.	5	Kennesaw St.	7:05 PM	ESPN3

 

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
Patriot	Higher Seeds	March 1, 3, 6, 9	10 to 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

Final standings are not set as this league still has one set of games to play.  Bucknell and Lehigh have clinched two of the four quarterfinal home seeds, while Boston U, Army, Navy, and Colgate are contending for the other two spots.

Holy Cross has clinched the 9th seed, and Lafayette has clinched the 10th seed, and both teams will play Tuesday night on the road.

Loyola of Maryland will host a First Round game Tuesday night as either the 7th or 8th seed.

American and Navy can both be the 7th seed and face a First Round game at home.  American can move up to a 6th seed or fall as far as an 8th seed, while Navy can still earn anywhere from a 3rd to 7th seed.

First Round and Quarterfinal games will be available through the Patriot League TV Network at:  http://campusinsiders.com/network/patriot_league/live

 

Starting Wednesday, March 2

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
America East	Higher Seeds	March 2, 7, 12	UMass-Lowell Ineligible. 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

Stony Brook has clinched the regular season title and at worst a bid to the NIT, but they are the heavy favorite in this league.  The Seawolves have home court advantage throughout the tournament.  Albany has clinched the second seed and will host a quarterfinal round game and a semifinal round game should they advance.

New Hampshire and Vermont are currently tied for third, but Vermont holds the tiebreaker for the 3rd seed should the two remain tied.

There are too many variables to include in this write-up for the final four spots.  Hartford, Maine, and Binghamton are currently tied for 5th with UMBC one game back in last place.

All Quarterfinal and Semifinal Round games will be available on ESPN3.

 

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
Northeast	Higher Seeds	March 2, 5, 8	Top 8 Qualify. 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

Bryant and Central Connecticut have already been eliminated from the field as the 9th and 10th place teams in a league where only the top 8 make the tournament.

Wagner clinched the regular season title and will be the 1st seed.  There are 32 different scenarios involving the other six teams, much too many to list here.  Sacred Heart, St. Francis (Bklyn), Fairleigh-Dickinson, and Mount St. Mary’s all have a chance to earn the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seeds.  Sacred Heart and FDU cannot drop lower than a 4th seed.

Long Island, Mount St. Mary’s, St. Francis (Bklyn), and St. Francis (Pa)  can earn the 5th or 6th seed.

St. Francis (PA), Long Island and Robert Morris can drop to the 7th seed, while LIU and RMU can both be the 8th seed, but SFP can drop no lower than a 7th seed.

All Quarterfinal Round games will be available through NEC Frontrow:  http://www.necfrontrow.com/

 

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
Ohio Valley	Nashville	March 2-5	Top 8 Qualify. 8 to 6 to 4 to 2 to 1

Belmont once again has secured the regular season championship and will be the top seed.  The Bruins and the 2nd Seed will both earn a double bye to the Semifinal Round.

In the Opening Round on Wednesday, the 5th seed will play the 8th seed at 7:00 PM EST, and the 6th seed will play the 7th seed at 9:00 PM EST.  The winner of the first game will advance to face the 4th Seed on Thursday, and the winner of the second game will play the 3rd Seed on Thursday.  On Friday, Belmont will play the team that advances from the 4-5-8 side of the bracket, while the 2nd Seed will play the team that advances from the 3-6-7 side of the bracket.

Seven of the eight teams have clinched a spot in the tournament.  Besides Belmont, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, UT-Martin, Morehead State, Murray State, and Eastern Illinois will be headed to Nashville.

One spot remains open to be decided between Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky, both currently tied at 6-9 in the OVC.  EKU holds the tiebreaker edge, but the Colonels play at 10-5 Tennessee Tech tomorrow, while Austin Peay hosts 2-13 SEMO.

All 1st Round and Quarterfinal Round games will be available through the OVC Digital Network:  http://www.ovcdigitalnetwork.com/watch/?Live=3312

Starting Thursday, March 3

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
Big South	Buies Creek, NC	March 3-6	11 to 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

First Round games on Thursday will pit the 6th seed against the 11th seed; the 7th seed against the 10th seed; and the 8th seed against the 9th seed.

Opening Round games will be available at Big South Sports Network:  http://www.bigsouthsports.com/live

Quarterfinal Round games will be available at ESPN3.  #1 will play #8 or 9, #2 will play #7 or 10, #3 will play #6 or 11, and #4 will play #5.

Currently, Winthrop, High Point, and UNC-Asheville are tied for first with Coastal Carolina one game back and still alive for the top seed.

Campbell is the host team for this tournament.

 

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
Metro Atlantic	Albany	March 3-7	11 to 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

The MAAC plays a 20-game conference schedule, and there are still two games left for most of the teams.  Monmouth once held a firm grasp on the top spot as well as a decent chance at earning an at-large NCAA Tournament bid should they come up short, but the Hawks are limping to the finish line and are in danger of missing out altogether.  A 16-point home loss to Iona makes the Gaels the hot team in the MAAC.  Iona has won seven of eight games to move within striking distance of the regular season title, even though Monmouth concludes with home games over bottom division Rider and Niagara.

Don’t discount Siena.  The Saints are the host team for the MAAC Tournament, and at 12-7 in league play, they are the lone team to defeat Iona during the Gaels’ run.

Fairfield is the other hot team in league play.  The Stags have won six games in a row, including an impressive decision over Siena.

First Round games on Thursday will only be available to subscribers to MAAC TV, which charges a fee for games:  https://www.nmnathletics.com/PremiumVideo.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=17400

Quarterfinal Round games on Friday will air on ESPN3.

 

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
Missouri Valley	St. Louis	March 3-6	10 to 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

It’s called, “Arch Madness,” and the MVC Tournament is always exciting, even when 1st seed Wichita State is dominating.  This year’s Arch Madness promises to continue in the excitement department, because even if the Shockers win their Quarterfinal and Semifinal Round games with ease, their Championship Game opponent promises to be up to the task to give WSU a good game on CBS on Sunday.

Evansville and Illinois State are currently tied for second and can only play Wichita in the Championship Round.  Both teams competed against the Shockers in the regular season with ISU winning in Normal.  The Redbirds close out the regular season facing Wichita State on Senior Day for their fabulous guards, so the Purple Aces have a better chance of earning the number two seed, but not an easy chance, as they close at home with Northern Iowa.

UNI and Southern Illinois are limited to the 4th and 5th seeds, and no matter which team finishes where, in order to get to the Finals, they will have to play Wichita State (unless the shockers lose to the 8 or 9 seed in the Quarterfinals).

The First Round and Quarterfinal Round games will air on the MVC TV Network: http://www.archmadness.com/

 

Starting Friday, March 4

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
Colonial Athl.	Baltimore	March 4-7	10 to 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

UNC-Wilmington and Hofstra are tied for first with one game remaining in the regular season for both.  The rivals split their regular season series winning on the other team’s home floor.  With numerous possibilities in this weekend’s games, Hofstra has a slightly better chance than UNCW of earning the top seed if the two teams remained tied.

William & Mary and Towson are currently tied for 3rd with James Madison one game behind in 5th.  Towson wins all ties for the #3 seed, so W&M can only take the 3rd seed by winning at JMU while Towson loses at UNCW.

All First Round and Quarterfinal Round Games will air on CAA TV:  http://portal.stretchinternet.com/caa/

 

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
Southern	Asheville, NC	March 4-7	10 to 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

Chattanooga once had this race in the bag, even with the loss of their best player since early in the season.  The Mocs have now dropped two of their previous four games to fall back within range of East Tennessee with two conference games left to be played.

Furman and Wofford are tied for third and will finish third and fourth in either order.  The Paladins have the better chance of getting the 3rd seed.

Western Carolina and UNC-Greensboro are tied for 5th, and both teams end the year playing their best ball.  UNCG won at Chattanooga by 15.

Mercer was once in contention for the regular season SoCon title, but the Bears have lost six straight games to fall to seventh place with a Sunday finale at Greensboro.

The tournament is in Asheville, which should be beneficial for WCU coming from nearby Cullowhee.

All 1st Round and Quarterfinal Round games will air on ESPN3.

 

Conference	Site	Dates	Format
West Coast	Las Vegas	March 4-5, 7-8	Pacific is Ineligible  9 to 8 to 4 to 2 to 1

If BYU beats Gonzaga, and San Francisco upsets Saint Mary’s, it will create a 3-way tie for first between BYU, SMC, and GU.  The tiebreaker would then give the regular season title and top seed to BYU, since they were 1-1 against fourth place Pepperdine, while SMC was swept by the Waves.

Gonzaga and BYU must win the tournament to receive a bid to the NCAA Tournament.  Saint Mary’s has a slim chance to earn an at-large bid should the Gaels win their regular season finale and make it to the Championship Game, but they better not count on it.

This is one of four tournaments taking place in Las Vegas.

The First Round game and two of the Quarterfinal Round games will air on BYU TV: http://www.byutv.org/

The other two Quarterfinal Round games (#2 vs. #7 & #1 vs. #8 or 9) will air on ESPN2.

 

Here are this week’s Red-White-Blue Picks of the Top Conferences

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 27, 2016
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Boston College	Georgia Tech	-9	-12	-7
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	6	7	10
Miami (Fla.)	Louisville	3	2	5
Florida St.	Notre Dame	-1	-1	-2
Virginia	North Carolina	2	3	3
Kansas	Texas Tech	12	9	11
Texas	Oklahoma	-2	-1	1
Oklahoma St.	West Virginia	-5	-6	-4
Iowa St.	Kansas St.	10	8	12
TCU	Baylor	-6	-7	-7
Georgetown	Butler	1	1	-2
Marquette	Villanova	-8	-7	-5
Providence	DePaul	13	16	14
Northwestern	Rutgers	16	18	17
Purdue	Maryland	4	4	3
Utah	Arizona	2	1	4
Stanford	UCLA	1	2	3
Georgia	Ole Miss	3	5	-1
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	2	-1	3
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	1	2	-2
Missouri	Texas A&M	-9	-10	-8
Alabama	Auburn	10	11	9
Tennessee	Arkansas	3	2	4
LSU	Florida	2	1	4

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 28, 2016
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Pittsburgh	Duke	-2	-2	-4
Wake Forest	Virginia Tech	1	1	-2
Seton Hall	Xavier	-1	1	-4
Creighton	St. John’s	16	18	20
Michigan St.	Penn St.	20	18	22
Ohio St.	Iowa	-4	-2	-5
Wisconsin	Michigan	5	6	4
Illinois	Minnesota	6	7	9
Colorado	Arizona St.	6	7	10
Oregon St.	Washington St.	12	14	11
California	USC	6	6	5
Oregon	Washington	10	8	7

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 20-21, 2016

They are in the stretch.  In less than two weeks, the first conference tournaments will begin, and three weeks from Sunday, we will know which 68 teams will play meaningful games into the third week of March.

Before we look at this weekend’s Red, White, and Blue ratings’ selections, let’s take a closer look at “The Bubble.”

As of today, we estimate that 24 teams are currently part of “The Bubble.”  Of those 24 teams, 14 of them are currently listed as “in the Dance,” and 10 are listed as NIT-Bound.

There is a catch here.  The good side of The Bubble tends to shrink as conference tournament play continues.  Whereas some teams play their way onto The Bubble and into the discussion, the number of available places for Bubble teams shrinks when a team not in the discussion gets hot and wins an automatic bid, reducing the number of spots for teams in the gray area.

As a for instance, let’s say that North Carolina State upsets three teams and wins the ACC Tournament this year.  The Wolf Pack would obviously receive an automatic bid, while the other big ACC teams already considered in the field but not as a Bubble team also receive bids.  This causes one Bubble team that is listed as in to be bumped to see their bubble burst.

Here is a look at our 24 Bubblers, showing which 14 would be drinking at the Dance bubbler today.

If you don’t know what a bubbler is, ask somebody from Wisconsin.

Team	Conf.	Overall	RPI	Vs. T50	Vs.T100	Rd RPI	L12	Seed	Weekend
Connnecticut	9-4	19-7	36	3-3	7-7	21	9-3	7	at Cincinnati
Providence	7-7	19-8	37	2-5	8-5	13	5-7	7	OFF
Syracuse	8-6	18-9	39	5-6	7-8	43	8-4	8	vs. Pitt.
Colorado	8-6	19-8	33	3-7	7-8	38	7-5	8	at UCLA
Pittsburgh	7-6	18-7	41	2-5	5-7	5	6-6	9	at Syracuse
Wisconsin	8-5	16-10	48	4-5	8-6	24	8-4	9	vs. Illinois
Seton Hall	8-5	18-7	44	1-4	7-7	41	7-5	10	at St. John’s
Michigan	9-5	19-8	54	1-3	8-8	42	7-5	10	at Maryland
Oregon St.	6-7	15-9	32	6-5	8-9	60	5-7	10	at Oregon
Texas Tech	6-7	16-9	28	5-7	7-8	61	5-7	11	at Okla. St.
Cincinnati	9-5	19-8	60	3-4	5-7	34	8-4	12	Vs. U Conn
Temple	10-3	16-9	66	4-5	6-7	96	9-3	12	at Houston
Butler	7-7	18-8	58	2-6	6-7	28	7-5	12	at Villanova
Alabama	7-6	16-9	30	4-5	7-8	35	7-5	12	vs. Miss. St.
Tulsa	9-5	17-9	45	2-4	6-8	55	9-3	1st out	at Cent. Fla.
Clemson	9-5	16-10	89	5-5	7-7	99	8-4	2nd out	vs. N. C. St.
Saint Mary’s	12-3	21-4	67	0-1	4-2	97	9-3	3rd out	at Gonzaga
Florida St.	6-8	16-10	61	2-7	7-10	68	6-6	4th out	at Va. Tech
LSU	9-4	16-10	81	3-5	6-7	50	7-5	5th out	at Tennessee
Vanderbilt	7-6	15-11	62	3-7	4-9	75	7-5	6th out	vs. Georgia
St. Bonaventure	9-4	17-7	49	2-2	4-5	71	8-4	7th out	at Dayton
Geo. Washington	8-5	19-7	46	2-3	4-4	76	7-5	8th out	at U Mass
Creighton	8-6	17-10	83	2-6	4-9	77	7-5	9th out	OFF
Washington	7-7	15-11	73	5-5	10-12	53	5-7	10thout	vs. Stanford

 

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 20, 2016
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Louisville	Duke	3	4	6
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	6	6	3
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	6	5	7
Virginia Tech	Florida St.	-3	-3	-5
Clemson	North Carolina St.	4	5	2
Georgia Tech	Notre Dame	-2	-1	-4
Texas	Baylor	5	6	5
West Virginia	Oklahoma	4	4	6
Kansas St.	Kansas	-5	-2	-7
Iowa St.	TCU	17	18	15
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	-1	-2	-2
Georgetown	Xavier	-4	-3	-8
DePaul	Marquette	-2	-5	-3
Villanova	Butler	11	10	12
Rutgers	Penn St.	-6	-7	-4
Nebraska	Ohio St.	3	1	2
Indiana	Purdue	5	3	6
Washington	Stanford	7	7	8
Oregon	Oregon St.	10	8	11
UCLA	Colorado	5	3	2
South Carolina	Florida	2	2	3
Vanderbilt	Georgia	8	6	3
Alabama	Mississippi St.	6	6	7
Auburn	Ole Miss	-4	-5	-3
Tennessee	LSU	1	1	3
Texas A&M	Kentucky	1	3	-3
Arkansas	Missouri	10	10	8
Gonzaga	Saint Mary’s	6	6	6

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 21, 2016
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Wake Forest	Boston College	9	10	8
St. John’s	Seton Hall	-12	-14	-15
Maryland	Michigan	3	8	9
Wisconsin	Illinois	11	11	10
USC	Utah	6	6	5
Washington St.	California	-9	-10	-6