November 26, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 13 NFL Previews: November 27-December 1, 2008

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: 2008, 49ers, Adrian Peterson, AFC, Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Bears, Bengals, Bills, Brady Quinn, Brandon Jacobs, Brett Favre, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Buffalo, Cardinals, Carolina, Chargers, Chicago, Chiefs, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Clinton Portis, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas, Denver, derek anderson, Detroit, Devon Hester, division, Dolphins, Donovan McNabb, Eagles, East, Falcons, Felix Jones, football, Giants, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Jaguars, Jets, Jim Zorn, Joe Namath, Kansas City, LaDainian Tomlinson, Line, Lions, Marc Bulger, matchup, Matt Ryan, Miami, Michael Turner, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, New York, NFC, NFL, North, Oakland, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Peyton Manning, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, point spread, Preview, Pro, Raiders, Rams, rating, Ravens, Ray Lewis, Redskins, Saints, San Diego, San Francisco, Seahawks, Seattle, South, St. Louis, Steelers, Steven Jackson, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Texans, Titans, Vikings, Washington, West — piratings @ 11:30 am

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 13

Can It Be Giants Vs. Jets In Super Bowl XLIII

The two hottest teams in the NFL both call East Rutherford, New Jersey, home. The New York Giants at 10-1 reign supreme over the NFC. The New York Jets are 8-3, and Brett Favre and company have won five games in a row by an average score of 34-18. Three of those wins have come against teams with winning records, and two of them came against teams likely to contend with them for the AFC Championship.

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version. The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula. No subjective data is used.

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule. As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October.

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version. The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations. Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule. Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing. Point values are assigned based on each set of data. The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s. The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings. The five ratings are not given equal weight. The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%. I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average. If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100. The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league. A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average.

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years. A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972. We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings & Ratings

NFC East

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

–

329

199

110.19

115.97

110.53

Dallas

–

265

251

100.76

101.99

104.65

Washington

–

201

199

99.39

99.65

101.51

Philadelphia

–

271

229

104.14

102.50

100.63

NFC North

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Chicago

–

267

234

102.58

100.77

101.77

Minnesota

–

253

246

102.41

102.33

102.05

Green Bay

–

303

260

105.09

102.86

101.49

Detroit

–

193

346

87.33

90.06

88.18

NFC South

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tampa Bay

–

257

180

105.88

104.23

105.53

Carolina

–

250

200

104.27

101.91

104.74

Atlanta

–

276

226

104.07

101.95

102.91

New Orleans

–

317

278

102.97

102.16

102.73

NFC West

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

–

318

265

103.17

102.77

104.09

San Francisco

–

252

310

93.22

94.58

93.86

Seattle

–

207

277

93.26

94.23

93.20

St. Louis

–

147

344

83.36

88.48

87.67

AFC East

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

–

323

234

105.83

105.68

107.01

New England

–

267

222

101.94

102.33

102.56

Buffalo

–

273

249

99.30

99.62

100.29

Miami

–

237

245

99.16

98.19

99.97

AFC North

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

–

236

160

107.36

104.39

105.25

Baltimore

–

258

187

107.39

105.27

104.24

Cleveland

–

207

237

97.72

97.16

96.48

Cincinnati

–

148

276

92.44

92.92

92.78

AFC South

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

–

257

165

108.61

105.77

106.38

Indianapolis

–

247

244

102.98

102.44

103.39

Jacksonville

–

224

240

98.45

98.57

96.91

Houston

–

252

293

96.90

98.78

97.24

AFC West

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

–

258

302

94.90

96.24

98.13

San Diego

–

274

252

102.15

100.47

99.83

Oakland

–

159

245

92.67

94.49

93.14

Kansas City

–

196

327

90.16

91.11

90.76

Note: due to the Thanksgiving holiday, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 8 AM EST

NFL Previews-Week 13

Tennessee (10-1-0) at Detroit (0-11-0)

Time: 12:30 PM EST, Thursday 11/27

TV: CBS

Forecast: Dome

PiRate: Tennessee by 18

Mean: Tennessee by 13

Bias: Tennessee by 18

Vegas: Tennessee by 11 -630/+530

Ov/Un: 44½

Strategy: Tennessee -1 in 10-point teaser, Tennessee +2 in 13-point teaser, Tennessee -630 as part of money line parlay

This game would have been much more interesting if the Titans had won last week, as no 11-0 team has played an 0-11 team in an NFL game.

Detroit is banged up quite a bit, while Tennessee has minimal injury concerns. I would tend to pick the Titans to rebound and blow the Lions off the field by three or more touchdowns, but some gut instinct tells me this game will be closer than expected. I actually believe the Lions will keep this one within striking distance and actually have a chance at the big upset. I am too shy to take the Lions at +11, and I don’t even like taking them at +21 and +24 in teasers. I do think Tennessee has a 90-95% chance of winning, so I will go with the Titans in the teasers, as well as using them as part of a money line parlay.

Seattle (2-9-0) at Dallas (7-4-0)

Time: 4:15 PM EST, Thursday November 27

TV: Fox

Forecast: Chance of Showers, light wind, temperature in the upper 60’s

PiRate: Dallas by 10

Mean: Dallas by 10

Bias: Dallas by 13

Vegas: Dallas by 12 -710/+610

Ov/Un: 46½

Strategy: Dallas -2 in 10-point teaser, Dallas +1 in 13-point teaser, Seattle +22 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +25 in 13-point teaser, Dallas -710 as part of a money line parlay

Even with Felix Jones out for the year, Dallas has enough offensive weapons to outscore most of the opponents remaining on the schedule. However, after this game, the final four opponents are all capable of beating them. This is a must-win game for Dallas, while Seattle is just playing out the schedule.

The Seahawks have been outscored 119-45 in their four road games on the East Coast. This is their first road game in the Central Time Zone, but I expect the result to be similar.

Dallas doesn’t blow opponents off the field, and Seattle has been losing by less than a dozen of late, so I like both ends in 10 and 13-point teasers.

Arizona (7-4-0) at Philadelphia (5-5-1)

Time: 8:15 PM EST, Thursday, November 27

TV: NFL Network

Forecast: Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from the upper to mid 30’s

PiRate: Philadelphia by 3

Mean: Philadelphia by 2

Bias: Arizona by 1

Vegas: Philadelphia by 3 -145/+125

Ov/Un: 46½

Strategy: Arizona +13 in 10-point teaser, Arizona +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 13-point teaser

How do you figure Philadelphia? Are they the team that beats Pittsburgh 15-6? Are they the team that loses to Dallas 41-37? Or, are they the team that ties the then 1-8 Bengals and loses to the Ravens 36-7 in their most recent games?

Coach Andy Reid could be on his way out and quarterback Donovan McNabb may be joining him. They better come up with their A-games this week.

Arizona could probably lose all their remaining games and still win their division at 7-9. This isn’t a must-win game for the Cardinals, but don’t expect them to lie down and play dead in the city of brotherly love this week.

Kurt Warner should have a 300+ passing yard day this week, and Arizona should top 24 points. It’s all up to the Eagle offense. They could lay another egg and lose by two touchdowns; they could play a decent game and make it a close game either way; or, they could play like they know their backs are against the wall and win by two touchdowns. The Cardinals have a decent chance or winning, a great chance of losing by a touchdown or less, and an outstanding chance of covering at double digit points.

Denver (6-5-0) at New York Jets (8-3-0)

Time: 1PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Showers possible, light wind, temperature in low 40’s

PiRate: Jets by 13

Mean: Jets by 11

Bias: Jets by 11

Vegas: Jets by 7½ -325/+295

Ov/Un: 47½

Strategy: Jets +2½ in 10-point teaser, Jets +5½ in 13-point teaser, Jets -325, Under 60½ in 13-point teaser

Denver should have the services of at least two capable running backs this week, but that isn’t going to solve the Broncos’ woes. They are fortunate that 8-8 can win their division this year, because they may struggle to finish 8-8. They could easily finish 1-4 to end up at 7-9 and become the first team with a losing record to make the playoffs in a non-strike-shortened season.

The Jets are playing as good right now as they have since Joe Namath led them to victory in Super Bowl III. Dominating Tennessee in Nashville last week was no small task. Add wins over New England and Buffalo, and this is a powerful team. As of this writing, I rate the Jets as the top team in the AFC.

The weather could be the only intangible keeping this game close. I see the Jets winning this one with relative ease, but a wet field could keep the margin down under the line.

The New York defense has been hiding under the radar. In the last seven games, they have surrendered less than 17 points per game (better than the Ravens and Titans over that time).

Miami (6-5-0) at St. Louis (2-9-0)

Time: 1PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Dome

PiRate: Miami by 14

Mean: Miami by 8

Bias: Miami by 10

Vegas: Miami by 7½ -325/+275

Ov/Un: 44

Strategy: Miami +2½ in 10-point teaser, Miami +5½ in 13-point teaser, Miami -325, Under 54 in 10-point teaser, Under 57 in 13-point teaser

Miami definitely must win this game to stay in the playoff hunt, as it might be necessary to post a 10-6 record to earn an AFC Wildcard spot. At 6-5, there isn’t much room for error, and this is the easiest game remaining on their schedule.

St. Louis may have to go without Marc Bulger. As I write this on Wednesday, he is listed as very doubtful. The Rams are headed nowhere, so it would be foolish for Bulger to risk permanent brain damage to play in this game. Thus, I am of the belief that an almost washed-up Trent Green will be under center for the Rams.

If Steven Jackson can play, the Rams may have a chance to keep this game close. However, Jackson will be rusty even if he is close to 100% by game time. Don’t expect a 20-100 rushing day out of him; look for something more like 7-25. Miami will win, but it may be closer than their fans will like.

New York Giants (10-1-0) at Washington (7-4-0)

Time: 1PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Chance of rain, light wind, temperature around 40

PiRate: Giants by 9

Mean: Giants by 14

Bias: Giants by 7

Vegas: Giants by 3½ -190/+165

Ov/Un: 42

Strategy: Washington +13½ in 10-point teaser, Washington +16½ in 13-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

This is going to be one whale of a game. These two opened the season in DC, and it was a real snoozer. The Giants won 16-7, and it was assumed at that time by the so-called experts that Washington would have a tough season adjusting to new coach Jim Zorn’s offense. Since then, the Redskins have averaged almost 20 points per game, but their defense has continued to keep them in every game. The most they have surrendered in any game is 24 points (only Pittsburgh can say the same).

This is going to be a game where the outstanding running games try to plow through rather strong defenses. Both New York’s Brandon Jacobs and Washington’s Clinton Portis enter this contest with injuries. It is not sure whether either or both will miss this game.

I look for this game to stay close throughout the day, and I am going with the Redskins in the teasers. Because there is a chance that the passing games may have to be used more than preferred, I am also teasing the Over.

New Orleans (6-5-0) at Tampa Bay (8-3-0)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Showers likely, moderate wind, temperature in the upper 70’s

PiRate: Tampa Bay by 5

Mean: Tampa Bay by 4

Bias: Tampa Bay by 5

Vegas: Tampa Bay by 3½ -190/+165

Ov/Un: 47½

Strategy: Tampa Bay +6½ in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +9½ in 13-point teaser, Tampa Bay -190, Tampa Bay -3½, Over 34½ in 13-point teaser, Under 60½ in 13-point teaser

Let’s take a look at some statistical information concerning the Saints. At home, they are 4-1 (5-1 if you count the game in London) and average 35 points to 17 for the opposition. On the road, they are 1-4 and average 22.6 points to 29.4 for the opposition. Their lone road win came at lowly Kansas City.

Tampa Bay has taken care of the other two NFC South teams to come to Raymond James Stadium. They should make it a perfect three for three this week. New Orleans will bounce some from their big Monday night win, and the Buccaneers must play back-to-back road games against Atlanta and Carolina after this game.

I am going with the Bucs to win and cover the spread in this game. I believe their defense will hold New Orleans under 24 points as well.

Indianapolis (7-4-0) at Cleveland (4-7-0)

Time: 1:00PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Snow showers possible, light wind, temperature around 35

PiRate: Indianapolis by 3

Mean: Indianapolis by 3

Bias: Indianapolis by 5

Vegas: Indianapolis by 5 -220/+180

Ov/Un: 45

Strategy: Indianapolis +8 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser

Cleveland will have to go without Brady Quinn the rest of the year. I am almost convinced that the Browns have quit on Derek Anderson. I also believe that Coach Romeo Crennel and General Manager Phil Savage will be leaving at the end of this year.

Indianapolis keeps winning by slim margins, but they keep winning. I see no reason why they cannot run the table and finish 12-4.

The weather could play a major part in many games this week, and this is one of those games where cold and wet conditions could make for slippery footballs and slippery turf. That could neutralize some of Indy’s advantage, but I’ll take the Colts in the teasers. I’m looking for the Colts to win 27-13. The loss of center Jeff Saturday could cause Manning to rush a pass or two and the newfound running game to take a small step backward.

San Francisco (3-8-0) at Buffalo (6-5-0)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Snow showers likely, moderate wind, temperature in mid 30’s

PiRate: Buffalo by 9

Mean: Buffalo by 8

Bias: Buffalo by 9

Vegas: Buffalo by 7 -275/+255

Ov/Un: 42½

Strategy: Buffalo -7, Buffalo -275, Buffalo +3 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +6 in 13-point teaser

San Francisco has so much going against them in this game. To start out, no West Coast team has won on the East Coast this year, and the 49ers’ three wins have come in the Pacific Time Zone. San Francisco is not acclimated to playing in cold, snowy weather, and they are likely to get a dose of that this week. The 49ers have nothing to play for, while Buffalo definitely must win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their final four games are all tough ones against teams competing for a playoff spot.

I’m looking for a Buffalo blowout by two touchdowns or more. I won’t pick any totals in this game, because the weather could be a bigger factor than the personnel.

Baltimore (7-4-0) at Cincinnati (1-9-1)

Time: 1:00PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Light rain possible, light wind, temperature around 40

PiRate: Baltimore by 13

Mean: Baltimore by 10

Bias: Baltimore by 9

Vegas: Baltimore by 7 -300/+250

Ov/Un: 36½

Strategy: Baltimore +3 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +6 in 13-point teaser, Baltimore -300 in Money Line parlay, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser

Cincinnati is a mess in both of its professional sports, and the problem is in the front office in both. Baltimore is a mess in baseball, but their football team is rather good. The Ravens have a great chance of finishing 11-5 and challenging for the AFC North title. Pittsburgh has a much tougher final month of games, and the Ravens could be tied for first after this week.

The Bengals failed to show up in Pittsburgh a week ago, and they showed no offense the week before against Philadelphia. I don’t see them finding the solution this week against Ray Lewis and his merry men of mayhem.

The two big intangible factors in this game both favor Cincinnati. The weather should make for a closer than expected game, and the Bengals get an extra three days to prepare for this one. Thus, I believe the margin of victory will be slimmer than expected. Even if the field is as big of a mess as the home team, I think there will be at least 25 total points scored.

Carolina (8-3-0) at Green Bay (5-6-0)

Time: 1:00PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Light snow, moderate wind, temperature in the upper 20’s to near 30

PiRate: Green Bay by 3

Mean: Green Bay by 3

Bias: Carolina by 1

Vegas: Green Bay by 3½ -170/+150

Ov/Un: 42

Strategy: Under 55 in 13-point teaser, Green Bay -170

This is a tough game to diagnose. Both teams lost games last week when their defenses suffered major letdowns, and their offenses or special teams contributed to the other side of the scoreboard.

I see one excellent play in this game. When both teams surrendered a great deal of points in their last games and it was also greater than they normally surrender, look for a regression to the mean in the next game. Thus, I believe this game will be lower scoring than expected. The possible inclement weather should aid us in that prediction.

This is a must-win game for Green Bay, as a loss will put them two games behind the Bears-Vikings winner. The NFC North will not supply any wildcard teams this year, so at 5-7, the Packers can have the fork stuck in them.

Atlanta (7-4-0) at San Diego (4-7-0)

Time: 4:05 PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny, very windy (will affect passes and kicks), temperature in the mid to upper 70’s

PiRate: Tossup

Mean: San Diego by 1

Bias: Atlanta by 1

Vegas: San Diego by 5 -205/+175

Ov/Un: 49

Strategy: Atlanta +15 in 10-point teaser, Atlanta +18 in 13-point teaser, Over 36 in 13-point teaser, Under 62 in 13-point teaser

This game will be more of a rivalry game than your typical NFC South versus AFC West game. Michael Turner warmed the bench in San Diego while LaDainian Tomlinson got the accolades in Chargerville. Now, Turner is the big star, while Tomlinson waddles in mediocrity for the Chargers. Turner has rushed for 1,088 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Tomlinson has rushed for 770 yards and five touchdowns.

Matt Ryan is now the odds-on choice to win the Rookie of the Year title. You will be hard pressed to find another first year quarterback with ratings like his.

This game has become a must-win contest for both teams. I would have thought that San Diego would have been eliminated with a loss last week, but now it looks like 8-8 will win the pathetic West Division.

I don’t really love any of the selections in this game, but if I had to guess, I would say it will be lower scoring than expected and a true tossup game.

Pittsburgh (8-3-0) at New England (7-4-0)

Time: 4:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Rain likely, light wind, temperature in the upper 30’s

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 3

Mean: Tossup

Bias: Pittsburgh by 1

Vegas: New England by 1 -120/+100

Ov/Un: 40

Strategy: New England +9 in 10-point teaser, New England +12 in 13-point teaser, New England -1, New England -120, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

Pittsburgh has big injury issues headed into this game, and the fact that I have to preview this game five days in advance makes it difficult to get a good grasp on making selections. The choices I have above are made with the assumption that Willie Parker will either miss this game or have very little affect on the outcome due to his sore knee.

I like New England to win this game by a couple of points in a defensive struggle. The rain should help keep the score down as well.

Kansas City (1-10-0) at Oakland (3-8-0)

Time: 4:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature in the mid to upper 60’s

PiRate: Oakland by 5

Mean: Oakland by 5

Bias: Oakland by 4

Vegas: Oakland by 3 -160/+140

Ov/Un: 41½

Strategy: Oakland +7 in 10-point teaser, Oakland +10 in 13-point teaser, Oakland -160, Oakland -3, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

In years past, this would have been the game of the week this week and possibly the game of the year. Now it could be an exciting game just because these two teams are equally inept.

The Raiders defeated Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this year. Oakland’s other two wins strangely came against two division leaders. What’s even stranger is that if they win this game to improve to 4-8, they could possibly move into a second place tie in the AFC West and be just two games out of first place with four games to go. They just might have an outside chance at getting to 7-9 and backing into the division title.

That above fairy tale isn’t likely to happen, but I believe the silver and black will win again this week.

Chicago (6-5-0) at Minnesota (6-5-0)

Time: 8:15PM EST

TV: NBC

Forecast: Dome

PiRate: Minnesota by 2

Mean: Minnesota by 4

Bias: Minnesota by 2

Vegas: Minnesota by 3 -160/+150

Ov/Un: 42

Strategy: Minnesota +7 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota +10 in 13-point teaser, Chicago +13 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

To the winner of this game goes undisputed possession of first place in the NFC North and a possibility of having a two-game cushion over Green Bay. This will be an interesting game between two decent teams albeit with exploitable liabilities.

I am going with the Over tease because it is a primetime, nationally-televised game. I also believe it will be a close game, so I think we can play both sides on 10 and 13-point teasers.

Since Minnesota lost 48-41 at Chicago, they have definitely been playing better football than the Bears, but I am not about to use that as a definitive fact that Minnesota will win this game. I still think it is close to a 50-50 tossup. The game will probably turn on one big play. Adrian Peterson and Devon Hester are both overdue for such antics.

Jacksonville (4-7-0) at Houston (4-7-0)

Time: 8:30PM EST Monday

TV: ESPN

Forecast: Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

PiRate: Houston by 1

Mean: Houston by 3

Bias: Houston by 3

Vegas: Houston by 3 -175/+155

Ov/Un: 48½

Strategy: Houston +7 in 10-point teaser, Houston +10 in 13-point teaser, Houston -175, Over 35½ in 13-point teaser

Neither team has enjoyed the success many picked them to have this season. Houston’s malaise has been more excusable because the team was displaced earlier in the season by a hurricane.

Jacksonville won the first meeting in overtime two months ago. Since then, the Jags have gone 2-5, while Houston has gone 5-3.

I’ll take the hotter team playing at home with a tiny axe to grind after losing a game they should have won in the first meeting. I’ll tease the Over just because it is a Monday night game.

Yuck!!!

It had to happen. My picking against the spread was just too highly accurate to continue week after week. Last week’s picks finished just 2-8-1, my worst week of the year. What made it so annoying was that most of my picks were correct, but I played nothing but teasers. You had those handful of games that were completely out of the norm that the NFL sees happening with regularity this time of the year. Philadelphia completely laid an egg after the tie debacle of the previous week. Denver showed why they are not in the same league with the other division leaders by getting blown out at home to the Raiders (they also lost to the 1-10 Chiefs). Green Bay blew up on Monday night in just three plays. Cleveland’s offense was totally lost once Brady Quinn proved that his injured finger was getting in his way. And so on and so on. The bank account took a major hit; you can subtract $800 from the pushka, leaving me with $1,120. That means the for the season profit stands at just $120 after all those winning weeks. Can I get a bailout from the NFL Reserve?

For the season, my picks against the spread are now 85-56-7 (60.3%).

I am going with a large amount of games this week, because I have noticed that when I make cuts in the games I like, I usually cut games I would have won if I had played them.

Here are my wagers for week 13 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

1. Tampa Bay -3½ vs. New Orleans

2. Buffalo -7 vs. San Francisco

3. New England -1 vs. Pittsburgh

4. Oakland -3 vs. Kansas City

5. New York Jets -325 vs. Denver

6. Miami -325 vs. St. Louis

7. Tampa Bay -190 vs. New Orleans

8. Buffalo -275 vs. San Francisco

9. Green Bay -170 vs. Carolina

10. New England -120 vs. Pittsburgh

11. Oakland -160 vs. Kansas City

12. Money Line Parlay (+130)

Tennessee over Detroit

Dallas over Seattle

NY Jets over Denver

Baltimore over Cincinnati

13. Money Line Parlay (+200)

Tennessee over Detroit

Dallas over Seattle

NY Jets over Denver

Baltimore over Cincinnati

Miami over St. Louis

14. 10-point teaser (TURKEY SPECIAL)

Tennessee -1 vs. Detroit

Dallas -2 vs. Seattle

Arizona +13 vs. Philadelphia

15. 10-point teaser

NY Jets +2½ vs. Denver

Miami +2½ vs. St. Louis

Tampa Bay +6½ vs. New Orleans

16. 10-point teaser

Buffalo +3 vs. San Francisco

Baltimore +3 vs. Cincinnati

New England +9 vs. Pittsburgh

17. 13-point teaser

Tennessee +2 vs. Detroit

Dallas +1 vs. Seattle

Arizona +16 vs. Philadelphia

NY Jets +5½ vs. Denver

18. 13-point teaser

Miami +5½ vs. St. Louis

Tampa Bay +9½ vs. New Orleans

Indianapolis +8 vs. Cleveland

Buffalo +6 vs. San Francisco

19. 13-point teaser

Baltimore +6 vs. Cincinnati

New England +12 vs. Pittsburgh

Oakland +10 vs. Kansas City

Miami & St. Louis Under 57

20. 13-point teaser

Baltimore & Cincinnati Over 23½

Washington & NY Giants Over 29

Tampa Bay & New Orleans Over 34½

Indianapolis & Cleveland Under 58

21. 13-point teaser

Atlanta & San Diego Over 36

Minnesota & Chicago Over 29

Houston & Jacksonville Over 35½

Arizona & Philadelphia Over 33½

AND REMEMBER!!! Do not use these picks for real. I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment. I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either. This is strictly for fun.

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November 13, 2008

PiRate Ratings NFL Previews For Week 11: November 13-17, 2008

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: 2008, 49ers, Aaron Rodgers, AFC, Andrew Walter, Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Bears, Bengals, Bills, Brett Favre, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Buffalo, Cadillac Williams, Cardinals, Carolina, Carson Palmer, Chargers, Chicago, Chiefs, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Clinton Portis, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas, Daunte Culpepper, Deion Branch, Denver, Detroit, division, Dolphins, Drew Brees, Eagles, Earnest Graham, East, Falcons, Felix Jones, football, Giants, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Jaguars, Jake Delhomme, JaMarcus Russell, Jay Cutler, Jeff Fisher, Jets, Joe Flacco, Kansas City, Kerry Collins, Kyle Orton, Line, Lions, Marc Bulger, Marques Tuiasosospo, matchup, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Ryan, Miami, Mike Smith, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, New York, NFC, NFL, North, Norv Turner, Oakland, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Peyton Hillis, Peyton Manning, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Pointspread, Preview, Pro, Raiders, Rams, rating, Ravens, Ray Lewis, Redskins, Rex Grossman, Saints, San Diego, San Francisco, Santana Moss, Seahawks, Seattle, Selvin Young, South, St. Louis, Steelers, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Texans, Titans, Tony Romo, Tony Sparano, Vikings, Vince Young, Washington, West — piratings @ 11:49 am

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 11

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

Current NFL Standings

NFC East

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

–

262

160

108.73

107.66

108.18

Washington

–

171

168

100.32

100.91

101.54

Philadelphia

–

251

180

108.50

105.53

104.70

Dallas

–

216

219

100.33

101.20

101.60

NFC North

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Chicago

–

237

194

106.55

102.63

104.33

Minnesota

–

210

215

101.66

101.38

101.90

Green Bay

–

237

206

104.33

103.23

102.81

Detroit

–

151

277

87.31

89.90

85.94

NFC South

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

–

191

133

106.84

104.19

105.90

Tampa Bay

–

200

147

106.08

103.46

105.01

Atlanta

–

211

174

104.11

102.06

104.33

New Orleans

–

236

229

100.49

100.32

99.06

NFC West

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

–

263

208

103.71

102.93

104.42

Seattle

–

170

231

92.76

95.33

94.11

San Francisco

–

195

259

92.62

93.51

91.32

St. Louis

–

128

282

84.47

90.05

86.60

AFC East

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New England

–

188

160

99.65

102.71

104.17

New York

–

255

190

102.62

102.12

104.04

Miami

–

192

182

100.60

99.58

102.53

Buffalo

–

192

189

97.47

97.85

99.16

AFC North

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

–

198

140

107.83

105.45

105.75

Baltimore

–

212

150

106.45

105.14

105.41

Cleveland

–

172

194

98.52

98.51

96.50

Cincinnati

–

125

236

91.18

92.96

92.12

AFC South

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

–

220

117

111.42

107.94

108.77

Indianapolis

–

191

197

103.05

103.17

103.14

Jacksonville

–

198

186

100.01

100.75

99.05

Houston

–

209

254

96.02

97.67

95.84

AFC West

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

–

224

251

95.51

96.94

99.19

San Diego

–

244

218

101.06

100.83

101.68

Oakland

–

113

218

88.97

91.40

89.57

Kansas City

–

145

243

90.94

92.67

91.42

Note: due to a Thursday game this week, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday Noon EST

NFL Previews-Week 11

New York Jets (6-3) at New England (6-3)

Time: 8:15 EST Thursday 11/13

TV: NFL Network

Forecast: Rain Showers, moderate wind, temperature holding steady around 44 degrees

PiRate: Jets by 1

Mean: New England by 3

Bias: New England by 2

Vegas: New England by 3 -165/+155

Ov/Un: 40½

Strategy: New England +7 in 10-point teaser, New England +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 10-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser

The weather could play an important role in this game, but I still believe the power of weeknight primetime television will have an even stronger effect.

To the winner goes undisputed first place in the toughest division in the AFC. The Patriots’ defense dominated the Jets in their earlier meeting in New Jersey, but Brett Favre’s grasp of the Jet offense is much stronger now. The Jets have scored 101 points in their last three games.

This is a tricky game, and the rivalry between the two coaches is important. I like the home team on short preparation but not enough to take them outright. Thus, I will utilize our trusty friend “The Teaser” and take the Pats and points.

Denver (5-4) at Atlanta (6-3)

Time: 1PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Dome

PiRate: Atlanta by 11

Mean: Atlanta by 7

Bias: Atlanta by 7

Vegas: Atlanta by 6 -265/+245

Ov/Un: 50½

Strategy: Over 40½ in 10-point teaser, Over 37½ in 13-point teaser

Atlanta has a favorable schedule the rest of the way, and the Falcons should win at least 10 games. Coach Mike Smith has to be one of the favorites for Coach of the Year. His team has played tough every week, and his rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has enjoyed a first year that few star quarterbacks in the past have enjoyed. Ryan is on pace for 3,400 passing yards and 20 TDs.

Denver’s Jay Cutler may have to pass the ball 45 times this week, as the Broncos are missing their top four runners. There is a chance Selvin Young might be able to go, but it looks like fullback Peyton Hillis will have to carry the load.

I am looking for a rather high scoring game. Atlanta has not surrendered more than 27 points in any game this year, and they may hold Denver to 21 to 27 points this week. Atlanta will top 20 points as well, so I am teasing the totals.

Oakland (2-7) at Miami (5-4)

Time: 1PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Partly cloudy, moderate wind with occasional strong gusts, temperature in low 70’s

PiRate: Miami by 14

Mean: Miami by 10

Bias: Miami by 15

Vegas: Miami by 10½ -500/+400

Ov/Un: 38

Strategy: Miami -500 (as part of a money line parlay), Miami -½ in 10-point teaser, Miami +2½ in 13-point teaser

Teams traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast have yet to win a game this year, and I don’t expect that stat to change with this game. Oakland has scored 35 total points in their last five games (since Tom Cable took over as interim coach). JaMarcus Russell may be another Vince Young in the making without all the off-the-field problems. He is questionable for this game. Last week’s starter Andrew Walter is not 100% healthy this week, and he wasn’t effective when he was healthy. Marques Tuiasosospo is the third quarterback; does it really matter which of these three play Sunday? I don’t think so. The Raiders are completely dysfunctional, and I’m thinking they will be lucky to score a touchdown this week.

Miami is the Atlanta of the AFC. Coach Tony Sparano should be the AFC Coach of the Year, but Jeff Fisher might get that award if the Titans go 14-2 or better. The Dolphins are considerably better defensively now than they were in September, and this week should be like child’s play for the stop side.

When Miami has the ball, it may take a quarter to get untracked, but eventually they will score points. Go with the fish in this one. I like playing the Dolphins in a money line pick, but I love them as part of a money line parlay.

Baltimore (6-3) at New York Giants (8-1)

Time: 1PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in upper 40’s

PiRate: Giants by 4

Mean: Giants by 5

Bias: Giants by 5

Vegas: Giants by 7 -290/+245

Ov/Un: 41½

Strategy: Baltimore +17 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +20 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

Could this Baltimore team be as good as the one that won the Super Bowl eight years ago? That 2000 Ravens team was only 5-4 after nine games, and their offense was averaging just 15.6 points per game. True, their defense was yielding less than 11 points per game at that time. This Ravens team is 6-3 with a potent offense averaging 33.5 points per game in the last four weeks. The defense is not comparable to the champion defense of 2000, but Ray Lewis and company can still get the job done; Baltimore is giving up just 16.7 points per game.

Can the Ravens win on the road against the 8-1 defending Super Bowl Champs? Yes, they can, but don’t risk losing money on that chance. Feel confident that they will at the very least keep this game within two touchdowns. The Giants have to cover a touchdown and adding 10 or 13 points onto that gives them an almost impossible task. New York could win this game by 10 points, and they could be extended until late in the fourth quarter with the game on the line. Baltimore could win. Playing the Ravens in the teasers wins in all three circumstances.

I like teasing the Over here as well. Joe Flacco is giving Matt Ryan a good battle for rookie supremacy. Having three quality running backs on hand takes the heat off him. While I don’s see the Ravens striking for 30 points this week, I do see them topping 20. So, I like teasing the Over as well.

Houston (3-6) at Indianapolis (5-4)

Time: 1PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Dome likely to be closed, but if it is open: Mostly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 40’s.

PiRate: Indianapolis by 9

Mean: Indianapolis by 8

Bias: Indianapolis by 9

Vegas: Indianapolis by 7½ -340/+310

Ov/Un: 50

Strategy: Indianapolis -340 (as part of money line parlay), Indianapolis +2½ in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +5½ in 13-point teaser, Over 40 in 10-point teaser, Over 37 in 13-point teaser

The Colts find themselves one game behind the wildcard leaders with seven weeks to go, but it is my opinion that they will finish the season as strong as they have finished in prior years. They could easily win 10 or 11 games, especially if Tennessee has nothing to play for on the final weekend.

Houston’s three week rise came to a crash in Minneapolis two weeks ago, and the Texans are headed nowhere this year. They gave up 31 points to Peyton Manning and company in their first meeting, and number 18 could easily top that mark in this game.

I’m going with the Colts to win this game, but I do not like the 7½ point spread. So, I will include Indianapolis in my money line parlays and my teasers. The Over could be topped by the Colts’ offense alone when you tease it.

Chicago (5-4) at Green Bay (4-5)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Snow showers, strong wind, temperature in the mid 30’s

PiRate: Tossup

Mean: Green Bay by 3

Bias: Tossup

Vegas: Green Bay by 4½ -210/+180

Ov/Un: 44½

Strategy: Chicago +14½ in 10-point teaser, Chicago +17½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

As I write this Wednesday afternoon, it is unsure whether Kyle Orton will be able to go for the Bears this week. Orton makes a huge difference over Rex Grossman. So, I cannot recommend any plays here until it is known who will be under center for Chicago. The above strategy applies only if Orton will play.

On the other side of the field, Aaron Rodgers is still nursing a sore shoulder. He cannot throw the deep ball with the same zip he could when healthy.

Philadelphia (5-4) at Cincinnati (1-8)

Time: 1PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Clouds giving away to sun, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 40’s

PiRate: Philadelphia by 15

Mean: Philadelphia by 13

Bias: Philadelphia by 11

Vegas: Philadelphia by 9½ -385/+355

Ov/Un: 41½

Strategy: Cincinnati +19½ in 10-point teaser, Cincinnati +22½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

Cincinnati had the week off, while the Eagles played the Giants in a crucial game. There could be a small case made that the Bengals were in a great position to pull off a big upset this week.

Carson Palmer is still not able to play, and that will keep the Bengals from pulling out a second consecutive win. However, Cincinnati has all the other breaks in their favor, and I think they will compete in this game. The Eagles have too much talent to lose in what is certainly a must-win game for them. I am looking at a 31-17 win for Philly, but I won’t give 9½ points to the home team in this game.

New Orleans (4-5) at Kansas City (1-8)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 50’s

PiRate: New Orleans by 8

Mean: New Orleans by 6

Bias: New Orleans by 6

Vegas: New Orleans by 5½ -240/+200

Ov/Un: 49½

Strategy: Kansas City +15½ in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +18½ in 13-point teaser, Over 36½ in 13-point teaser

The Chiefs keep coming up with surprisingly good games when you least expect it from them. Half of their losses could have gone the other way. New Orleans qualifies as a team the Chiefs can scare the daylights out of before losing late.

Drew Brees is on pace to smash the all time passing yardage record for a single season; at the rate he is going, he will top 5,300 yards. He is averaging more than 40 passing attempts per game, but he may get a small break this week. Reggie Bush could return to action to help take the heat off the passing game, and the Chiefs are giving up more than 170 rushing yards per game at an average of more than five yards per attempt.

I am going with the Chiefs in a Teaser because I don’t believe New Orleans can hold them under 20 points. The Saints may control the ball on the ground more this week, and it may lead them to winning 28-20 rather than 37-32.

Detroit (0-9) at Carolina (7-2)

Time: 1:00PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature in mid 50’s

PiRate: Carolina by 22

Mean: Carolina by 16

Bias: Carolina by 22

Vegas: Carolina by 14 -800/+650

Ov/Un: 39½

Strategy: Carolina -800 (as part of money line parlay), Carolina -4 in 10-point teaser, Carolina -1 in 13-point teaser, Over 29½ in 10-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser

Detroit has Daunte Culpepper tossing the pigskin now, but I don’t expect much difference in the results of Lions’ games. That said, Detroit has actually been much more competitive on the road than at home this season. While I don’t see them scaring Carolina this week, I would not be surprised to see the Lions covering the two touchdown spread this week.

Jake Delhomme had a terrible game last week in Oakland, and you can expect him to rebound this week. He won’t have to throw the ball all over the field, and that should help him improve his accuracy. Look for him to take advantage of some mismatches when the Lions try to throw the kitchen sink at him. The Carolina ground game should top their 119 yards per game rushing average by at least 30 if not 50 yards.

I think Carolina has a 95% chance of winning this game and a 55% chance of winning by more than two touchdowns. So, I am selecting the Panthers as part of a money line parlay, but I won’t take them and give 14 points to a team that has lost its most recent road games by four, seven, and two points.

Minnesota (5-4) at Tampa Bay (6-3)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

PiRate: Tampa Bay by 6

Mean: Tampa Bay by 4

Bias: Tampa Bay by 5

Vegas: Tampa Bay by 3 -185/+165

Ov/Un: 38½

Strategy: Tampa Bay -3, Tampa Bay -185, Tampa Bay +7 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 28½ in 10-point teaser, Over 25½ in 13-point teaser

The Vikings have a chance to take command in the NFC North if they can pull off the mild upset, and Green Bay beats Chicago. If they lose, then they will be on the outside looking in. The Vikings’ schedule is tricky the rest of the way, and I don’t believe they will win the division if they are 5-5 after this week.

Tampa Bay is a team that could be great but seems to always misfire in one area. When their offense plays well, their defense seems to slip. A great defensive performance seems to coincide with difficulty with their offense. Therefore, almost all of their games are nip and tuck affairs that go to the final gun.

Things could be looking up for Tampa Bay starting this week. Cadillac Williams has been activated, and he should play some this week. If he can run the ball five times for 20 yards, it could allow Earnest Graham to rest just enough to keep him effective.

The weather is going to be ideal for football, and I look for the home team to move to 7-3. I’m going with the Bucs giving three, on the money line, and in the teasers. The ideal weather should lead to both teams topping 20 points and definitely topping 17, which is good enough to win at both 10 and 13 point teasers.

St. Louis (2-7) at San Francisco (2-7)

Time: 4:05PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 70’s

PiRate: San Francisco by 11

Mean: San Francisco by 6

Bias: San Francisco by 8

Vegas: San Francisco by 7 -265/+245

Ov/Un: 45

Strategy: St. Louis +17 in 10-point teaser, St. Louis +20 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser

Personally, I am fed up with the 49ers. A head football coach once denigrated his team publicly by saying they didn’t know how to win; that applied aptly to this team. Even facing the lowly Rams, I am hesitant to pick the 49ers to win this game. Marc Bulger could torch the secondary and lead his team to a road win. Should San Francisco figure out a way to win this game, I cannot see them doing so by double digits. Therefore, I believe that taking those dreadful Rams in the teasers is one of the best selections of the week. I have added the Under 58 teaser option only as a last choice to fill out a 13-point parlay. My guess at the final score will be something like 24-21 to 28-21 with both teams having about a 50-50 chance of winning. Having Steven Jackson back for the Rams is my insurance policy on this pick.

Arizona (6-3) at Seattle (2-7)

Time: 4:05PM EST

TV: Fox

Forecast: Cloudy, light wind, temperature near 55

PiRate: Arizona by 8

Mean: Arizona by 5

Bias: Arizona by 7

Vegas: Arizona by 3 -140/+130

Ov/Un: 47½

Strategy: Seattle +13 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +16 in 13-point teaser

This is a serious trap game this week. Seattle is primed to pull off a big shocker, and even if they fall short, I believe the Seahawks have a great chance at covering if you give them an extra 10 or 13 points.

Arizona had a Monday night game, and they will be traveling 1,500 miles north on short rest. More importantly, it looks like Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch will both play this week, and that makes Seattle seven to 10 points better offensively.

Tennessee (9-0) at Jacksonville (4-5)

Time: 4:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Sunny, moderate wind, temperature falling from 60 to the mid 50’s

PiRate: Tennessee by 8

Mean: Tennessee by 4

Bias: Tennessee by 7

Vegas: Tennessee by 3 -145/+125

Ov/Un: 39½

Strategy: Jacksonville +13 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 29½ in 10-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser

The first time these teams played, it was the opening week of the season. Vince Young threw two interceptions, and the Titans appeared to be on their way to an 0-1 start. Then, Young buried his head on the bench and almost did not go back in the game. A couple plays later, he suffered a sprained knee, and Kerry Collins entered the game. He quickly tossed a touchdown pass, and the Titans began their 9-0 start with a revived offense.

Jacksonville was supposed to have an offense that could not be stopped or contained. Instead, the Jaguars have looked inept some weeks. Losses to Cleveland and Cincinnati have ruined their chances for making the playoffs this season. Beating Tennessee would be their big game of the year. Tennessee has been their nemesis through the years, and an upset over their hated rival would make their season.

This game has been moved to 4:15 for national television, and I am expecting the motivated Jags to come out and make this game a hard-fought war for 60 minutes. It could come down to a last play field goal attempt to decide it all. Even if it goes to overtime, and the highest spread possible becomes six points, it won’t be enough to hurt us if we take Jacksonville in the teasers. I am also teasing the totals here, because in the twenties, it isn’t asking that much for the teams to do. A special teams or defensive big play could add an extra touchdown to the final score.

San Diego (4-5) at Pittsburgh (6-3)

Time: 4:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Forecast: Snow flurries and possible snow showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping through the 30’s

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 9

Mean: Pittsburgh by 7

Bias: Pittsburgh by 6

Vegas: Pittsburgh by 4 -225/+185

Ov/Un: 43

Strategy: Pittsburgh -225, Pittsburgh +6 in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +9 in 13-point teaser

I almost picked the Steelers to cover the spread without the use of a teaser in this game, and I think if the snow is anything more than flurries, Pittsburgh will win by more than a touchdown.

San Diego is another one of those West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone, and like I wrote above, no West Coast team has won a game in the Eastern Time Zone this year.

I am of the belief that Norv Turner is an excellent offensive coordinator who does not get the most out of his talent as a head coach. San Diego is a bigger disappointment this year than Cleveland or Dallas. I really cannot see them winning this game, and at 4-6, Turner’s seat will begin to heat up. Pittsburgh has lost their last two home games, and I look for that to change this week. Call it a 20-14 home win in Steeltown.

Dallas (5-4) at Washington (6-3)

Time: 8:15PM EST

TV: NBC

Forecast: Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature falling from the upper to lower 40’s

PiRate: Washington by 2

Mean: Washington by 2

Bias: Washington by 2

Vegas: Tossup -120/+110

Ov/Un: 43½

Strategy: Dallas +10 in 10-point teaser, Dallas +13 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser

This is a great rivalry game. You can throw out the past when these two teams hook up. The Redskins won in Texas Stadium, but that means little in their chances to go for the sweep.

What does mean a lot in deciding this week’s outcome is the status of some key personnel on both sides of the ball. For Dallas, it revolves around Tony Romo and Felix Jones. What kind of performance will they be able to display? For Washington, it looks like Clinton Portis will not play, while Santana Moss plays at less than 100%. Portis cannot be replaced, and the Cowboys will concentrate their efforts on stopping the Redskin passing attack.

I like Dallas’s chances of getting revenge in this game and throwing the NFC East into a three-way tie for second place at 6-4. If the Cowboys lose, then it is highly unlikely that they will recover to make it in the playoffs as a wildcard team. So, I am taking the visitors in the teasers. I believe the final score will be somewhat similar to the final score the first time, only with the Cowboys winning.

Cleveland (3-6) at Buffalo (5-4)

Time: 8:30PM EST Monday

TV: ESPN

Forecast: Snow showers, moderate to strong winds, temperature holding steady in the low 30’s

PiRate: Buffalo by 2

Mean: Buffalo by 2

Bias: Buffalo by 6

Vegas: Buffalo 6 -225/+185

Ov/Un: 41½

Strategy: Buffalo -225, Cleveland +16 in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +19 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

What a great time for a Monday night game near the snow capital of the lower 48! Buffalo should be a winter wonderland as ESPN comes on the air for this game. Snowfall can be a good friend to those who play teasers. It tends to even out the score when there is a possible mismatch, and it tends to lead to turnovers that produce points. It doesn’t have to be bitter cold or a blizzard to affect a game. Try fielding a high punt in the lights when snow is falling. It isn’t easy.

So, that is why I am actually teasing the Over and not the Under in this game. Of course, with Monday night games comes higher scoring, as can be attested by this year’s average Monday night score of 34-20.

Another Nice Winning Week Against The Spreads

Last week’s picks finished 9-4-0 adding $400 more to the bank account. For the season, my picks against the spread are now 74-42-6 (63.8%). The account balance is $2,065. For the year, my Return on investment is 16.9%.

The money line parlay I selected last week produced a winning wager, and I will try using that again this week. Thanks to the ending off bye weeks for the season, we have 16 games per week for the remainder of the regular season.

Last week, I played a little defensively due to weather and injury issues. This week will only see those factors become more important.

Here are my wagers for week 11 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

1. Tampa Bay -3 vs. Minnesota

2. Pittsburgh -4 vs. San Diego

3. Buffalo -225 vs. Cleveland

4. Tampa Bay -185 vs. Minnesota

5. Pittsburgh -225 vs. San Diego

6. Money Line Parlay (-130)

A. Miami over Oakland

B. Indianapolis over Houston

C. Carolina over Detroit

7. Money Line Parlay (+220)

A. Buffalo over Cleveland

B. Tampa Bay over Minnesota

C. Pittsburgh over San Diego

8. 10-point Teaser

A. Miami -½ vs. Oakland

B. Indianapolis +2½ vs. Houston

C. Jacksonville +13 vs. Tennessee

9. 10-point Teaser

A. Kansas City +15½ vs. New Orleans

B. Tampa Bay +7 vs. Minnesota

C. St. Louis +17 vs. San Francisco

10. 10-point Teaser

A. Pittsburgh +6 vs. San Diego

B. Dallas +10 vs. Washington

C. Cleveland & Buffalo Over 31½

11. 13-point Teaser

A. Chicago +17½ vs. Green Bay

B. Miami +2½ vs. Oakland

C. Baltimore +20 vs. New York Giants

D. Indianapolis +5½ vs. Houston

12. 13-point Teaser

A. Jacksonville +16 vs. Tennessee

B. Kansas City +18½ vs. New Orleans

C. Carolina -1 vs. Detroit

D. Tampa Bay +10 vs. Minnesota

13. 13-point Teaser

A. St. Louis +20 vs. San Francisco

B. Seattle +16 vs. Arizona

C. Pittsburgh +9 vs. San Diego

D. Dallas +13 vs. Washington

14. 13-point Teaser

A. Cleveland & Buffalo Over 28½

B. Denver & Atlanta Over 37½

C. Miami & Oakland Over 25

D. Jacksonville & Tennessee Over 26½

15. 13-point Teaser

A. Denver & Atlanta Under 63½

B. Carolina & Detroit Over 26½

C. Tampa Bay & Minnesota Over 25½

D. Dallas & Washington Over 30½

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October 24, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 8 NFL Previews: October 26-27, 2008

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: 2008, 49ers, AFC, Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Bears, Ben Roethlisberger, Bengals, Bills, Brandon Jacobs, Brett Favre, Brian Westbrook, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Buffalo, Calvin Johnson, Cardinals, Carolina, Carson Palmer, Chargers, Chicago, Chiefs, Chris Johnson, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Clinton Portis, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas, Dan Orlovsky, Darren McFadden, Demetrius Williams, Denver, Derrick Mason, Detroit, division, Dolphins, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, Eagles, East, Eli Manning, Eric Mangini, Falcons, football, Fred Taylor, Giants, Green Bay, Hines Ward, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Jaguars, Jake Delhomme, JaMarcus Russell, Jets, Jon Gruden, Kansas City, Kurt Warner, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, LenDale White, Line, Lions, Marc Bulger, matchup, Matt Ryan, Maurice Jones-Drew, Miami, Mike Furrey, Mike Holmgren, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, New York, NFC, NFL, North, Oakland, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Peyton Manning, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Pointspread, Preview, Pro, Raiders, Rams, rating, Ravens, Ray Lewis, Redskins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Saints, Sam Baker, San Diego, San Francisco, Seahawks, Seattle, Single Wing, South, St. Louis, Steelers, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Texans, Thomas Jones, Titans, Tony Romo, Trent Edwards, Tyler Thigpen, Vikings, Washington, West, Willie Parker, Willis McGahee, Yamon Figurs — piratings @ 10:20 am

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Eight

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

Current NFL Standings and Ratings

NFC East

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

–

170

101

106.25

103.64

106.38

Washington

–

140

128

103.71

102.63

102.67

Dallas

–

189

175

102.40

101.04

101.49

Philadelphia

–

167

123

109.63

103.82

105.29

NFC North

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Chicago

–

196

150

108.85

121.83

107.54

Green Bay

–

194

159

103.74

102.42

103.83

Minnesota

–

154

167

100.81

99.70

99.10

Detroit

–

187

85.66

89.24

87.98

NFC South

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tampa Bay

–

161

107

109.14

105.23

106.68

Carolina

–

147

104

107.82

104.20

105.01

Atlanta

–

139

127

102.06

99.97

101.21

New Orleans

–

179

163

102.32

100.35

100.14

NFC West

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

–

177

144

105.41

102.42

102.97

St. Louis

–

178

88.55

93.55

93.62

San Francisco

–

158

196

94.26

93.76

94.81

Seattle

–

110

171

90.36

93.22

92.72

AFC East

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Buffalo

–

149

118

101.53

101.40

103.79

New England

–

130

116

98.35

101.18

101.91

New York

–

154

146

99.23

98.89

98.62

Miami

–

120

130

98.85

96.86

98.14

AFC North

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

–

141

108.55

105.95

107.90

Baltimore

–

105

100

102.40

100.85

100.25

Cleveland

–

106

99.63

98.88

98.10

Cincinnati

–

182

91.92

91.98

90.98

AFC South

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

–

149

109.91

107.60

107.30

Indianapolis

–

128

131

101.39

100.27

101.13

Jacksonville

–

124

128

100.99

100.83

102.37

Houston

–

140

179

94.24

96.66

96.58

AFC West

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

–

173

195

95.30

96.47

97.96

San Diego

–

192

162

102.88

101.48

102.87

Oakland

–

148

89.29

93.41

93.14

Kansas City

–

165

85.39

90.24

89.93

NFL Previews-Week Eight

San Diego (3-4) vs. New Orleans (3-4) (at London)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Light rain expected, light winds, temperature falling from the upper 50’s to the low 50’s

PiRate: San Diego by 1

Mean: San Diego by 1

Bias: San Diego by 3

Vegas: San Diego by 3 -155/+145

Ov/Un: 46

Strategy: Over 36 in 10-point teaser, Over 33 in 13-point teaser

Tally Ho! These two teams will play in Wembley Stadium in London Sunday afternoon/evening London time. I don’t like it when the usual tendencies for games have been altered. Both teams have gotten out of their routines, and there isn’t enough prior history (just one year to be exact) to look back and discover patterns. My advice is to leave this game alone, but the only thing close to safe is to look for a high scoring game with a lot of passing.

LaDainian Tomlinson should be close to 100% for the Chargers, but I expect him to get fewer carries than normal in order to protect the injured toe.

Drew Brees should have a 300-yard passing game, and for that reason I think these teams will combine to score more than 40 points.

Kansas City (1-5) at New York Jets (3-3)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Mostly sunny, moderate winds, temperature in upper 50’s

PiRate: Jets by 16

Mean: Jets by 11

Bias: Jets by 11

Vegas: Jets by 13 -610/+485

Ov/Un: 39

Strategy: Under 52 in 13-point teaser

The Chiefs’ offense has gone into hibernation. Until late in the fourth quarter last week, Kansas City had gone eight quarters without scoring a point. Brodie Croyle and backup Damon Huard are now both done for the season. Third stringer Tyler Thigpen is completing just 42% of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt. Now, with Larry Johnson inactive again for this game, what can the Chiefs do this week? It’s not like their defense will bail them out. They are the 31^st-rated stop troops in the NFL with a run defense that is on pace to give up more than 3,300 yards rushing.

The Jets had engine failure last week in Oakland, and I don’t see that problem occurring this week. Brett Favre may not have to raise his arm too many times if Thomas Jones is his usual self. He rushed for 159 yards last week and could easily equal or top that this week.

Because Coach Eric Mangini may decide to mimic Vince Lombardi and plan for his offense to grind out 80-yard drives that take 15 plays and half a quarter to score, the Jets may actually have difficulty covering the line. I wouldn’t fool with a 13-point spread. Instead, I am looking at a tease of the totals. I cannot see Kansas City scoring 17 points in this game, and I cannot see the Jets topping 35. The final score could be as low as 24-7 and as high as 35-14. So, I like “Under 52” as part of a 13-point teaser.

Atlanta (4-2) at Philadelphia (3-3)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny, moderate winds, temperature near 60

PiRate: Philadelphia by 10

Mean: Philadelphia by 6

Bias: Philadelphia by 6

Vegas: Philadelphia by 9½ -380/+335

Ov/Un: 45

Strategy: Philadelphia +½ in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +3½ in 13-point teaser, Over 35 in 10-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser

This should be quite an entertaining game, and the Falcons believe they can pull off the upset and move on the top half of the playoff bubble. The Eagles have all their offensive weapons healthy, and Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and company should find success moving the ball in this game.

There is one big factor in this game that may not reveal itself until game time. Falcon rookie sensation Sam Baker may not be able to play, and he is a key reason why quarterback Matt Ryan has been able to pass like he is a seasoned veteran. In the one game where Baker was unable to go, the Falcons’ offense scored just nine points.

Without Baker, Atlanta cannot win this game. With a healthy Baker, they can keep it close and have a shot at the upset.

Either way, I like the Eagles to win the game, so I’ll take Philly and points in the teasers. Teasing the Totals could be iffy due to the possibility of the Falcons not being able to score without Baker in the lineup. Without him, they could struggle to reach double digits. If they score just 10 points, the Eagles would have to score 23 to satisfy a 13-point teaser and 26 to satisfy a 10-point teaser. Only tease the Over if you already know Baker will start and be able to play at near 100% effectiveness.

I could see a 13-point tease of the Under working for us. Under 58 would be very playable even if Baker starts. Atlanta’s defense should hold the Eagles to 28 points or less, and their offense won’t score 30 points.

Buffalo (5-1) at Miami (2-4)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Rain likely, light winds, temperature near 80

PiRate: Buffalo by 1

Mean: Buffalo by 3

Bias: Buffalo by 4

Vegas: Buffalo by 1 -120/+100

Ov/Un: 42½

Strategy: Miami +11 in 10-point teaser, Miami +14 in 13-point teaser, Buffalo +9 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +12 in 13-point teaser

This is an intriguing game. Buffalo’s 5-1 record is questionable when you consider that four of those wins came over teams buried deep in the standings. The one lone quality win came over a mediocre Jacksonville team, and the one loss came on the road at Arizona.

Miami has that extraordinary win at New England when they sprung the single wing offense on an unsuspecting defense. In the next game, a trick play pulled out the win over San Diego. Baltimore stuffed the offense last week. Buffalo’s defense is not in the Ravens’ class, but it is strong enough to take those pet plays away.

The Bills’ running game has been disappointing this year, while quarterback Trent Edwards has been a pleasant surprise. Miami’s defense isn’t strong against the pass. That worries me this week. I don’t really like any of the plays in this game, as I see a huge deviation in possible outcomes. I only list the teasers above, but I don’t heartily endorse any of them. Miami could win by a touchdown, and the Bills could win by two touchdowns. The score could be 28-24 or 14-10.

St. Louis (2-4) at New England (4-2)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Partly cloudy, considerable wind (enough to affect game), temperature in the mid 50’s

PiRate: New England by 12

Mean: New England by 10

Bias: New England by 10

Vegas: New England by 7 -315/+285

Ov/Un: 43

Strategy: New England -7, New England -315, New England +3 in 10-point teaser, New England +6 in 13-point teaser, Under 56 in 13-point teaser

Break up the Rams! Any team that can blow out the Cowboys by 20 points must be a force to be reckoned with. Is Jim Haslett a super genius who can turn the weakest team in 20 years into the strongest team of 2008? In back-to-back weeks, the Rams won at Washington and destroyed the team expected to waltz to the Super Bowl.

New England is the perfect embodiment of a Jekyll and Hyde team. They lose big to the Dolphins and blow out the Broncos. They hold the Jets’ offense to 10 points and give up 30 to the struggling Chargers.

I believe the weather will play an important role in this game. The Rams are accustomed to playing indoors, and this game is going to be played with a stiff wind and cool temperatures. This will be no big deal for the home team.

New England’s offense woke up last week against Denver, and I don’t see the Monday night effect hurting them this week. They should be able to score 24 to 30 points against St. Louis even with a renewed defensive strength since the change of coaches.

I see the Pats winning by double digits and holding Marc Bulger and company to 17 points or less. A score of 28-14 is quite possible, so I like a tease of the Under as well as the Patriots straight up and giving a touchdown. New England would have to score more than 42 points to ruin a 13-point tease if the Rams score just two touchdowns. Even a score of 35-21 wouldn’t beat us. I would be shocked if the Pats don’t run the ball 35 or more times in this game, so total plays should be reduced.

Arizona (4-2) at Carolina (5-2)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature in the mid 60’s

PiRate: Carolina by 4

Mean: Carolina by 4

Bias: Carolina by 4

Vegas: Carolina by 4 -200/+170

Ov/Un: 43½

Strategy: Carolina -4, Carolina -200, Carolina +6 in 10-point teaser, Carolina +9 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 13-point teaser

This game could be an NFC playoff preview. Arizona is in complete control in the West, while Carolina is on pace to qualify as a wildcard or possible champion of the South Division.

The Cardinals have lost both times they have ventured into the Eastern Time Zone. Their defense faltered both times. This will be the toughest opponent of the three eastern teams they will have played.

Carolina may have the best home field advantage so far this season. Their average score in Bank of America Stadium is 27-8, while their average road game score is 13-24.

Arizona had a week off, so that makes this one a bit tougher to call. I still think the Panthers have a decided advantage in this contest. Their pass defense should hold Kurt Warner about 75 yards below his average, and the Cardinals’ running game is not strong enough to take up the slack. Jake Delhomme should top 200 passing yards and lead his offense to 24 or more points. It adds up to a touchdown or more victory, so I like Carolina straight up and giving four points.

Oakland (2-4) at Baltimore (3-3)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature near 60

PiRate: Baltimore by 16

Mean: Baltimore by 10

Bias: Baltimore by 10

Vegas: Baltimore by 7 -325/+295

Ov/Un: 36

Strategy: Baltimore -325, Baltimore +3 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +6 in 13-point teaser, Under 49 in 13-point teaser

Is their any possibility that JaMarcus Russell can solve the Ravens’ pass defense and avoid getting clobbered by their pass rush? Will Darren McFadden be able to play this week? Even if he can go, I doubt he will carry the ball more than eight times. Ray Lewis and his band of mad men will make mincemeat out of Oakland’s offense.

The big question mark for Baltimore is who will line up at the wideout spots this week. Yamon Figurs, Derrick Mason, and Demetrius Williams may all miss this game. Running back Willis McGahee should play, but he won’t be at full strength.

I expect a low scoring game, and Baltimore knows how to win when they score just 10-14 points. I could see a score as low as 13-10 and as high as 21-17. I don’t like the spread, but I think Baltimore has better than an 80% chance of winning. Therefore, I like the money line option as well as getting the Ravens and points in the teasers. Obviously, teasing the Under at 49 looks inviting as well. I just cannot see a final score of 27-23 with both teams being hit with injuries on the offensive side.

Washington (5-2) at Detroit (0-6)

Time: 1:00PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Dome

PiRate: Washington by 15

Mean: Washington by 10

Bias: Washington by 12

Vegas: Washington by 7½ -315/+285

Ov/Un: 42

Strategy: Detroit +7½, Detroit +17½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +20½ in 13-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

This is my pick as trap game of the week. Detroit is bound to luck into at least one win this season, and this could be that week. The Redskins have been quite fortunate to win close games every week. They seem to play to the quality of the opposition. Their offense has gone south the last two weeks against the Rams and Browns, two teams not noted for excellence in defense.

Detroit has nothing to lose except maybe the rights to Tim Tebow if they win one too many games this year. With the loss of Roy Williams and Jon Kitna, the Lions changed their strategy last week against Houston. Calvin Johnson was used more like Bob Hayes was used by the Cowboys in the late 1960’s. Johnson ran deep routes, while Mike Furrey became the possession receiver. It worked to some extent, and it opened some holes for the running game. Dan Orlovsky’s passing line looked like one from the 1960’s AFL.

Washington’s offense lives or dies with the running of Clinton Portis. Portis could rush the ball 25 times and pick up 125 yards in this game, and the Redskins will still have to score with their passing game to win this one.

The numbers add up to a huge Washington win, but I believe the numbers will give away some to intangibles this week. Call it a gut instinct, but I think Detroit will keep this one close and have a chance to win it in the final period.

Tampa Bay (5-2) at Dallas (4-3)

Time: 1:00PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80

PiRate: Tampa Bay by 5

Mean: Tampa Bay by 2

Bias: Tampa Bay by 3

Vegas: Dallas by 2½ -140/+120

Ov/Un: 40½

Strategy: Tampa Bay +12½ in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +15½ in 13-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser

The Dallas defense has fallen on rough times, and head coach Wade Phillips will be calling the defensive plays this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to lower the score of this game by complimenting his defensive play-calling with a time-consuming, conservative offensive game plan.

Tampa Bay is primed to take over the label of Super Bowl favorite this week. A Buccaneer win would definitely place them at the top of the NFC pecking order, especially if the Giants lose at Pittsburgh.

Even if the Bucs cannot pull off the mild road upset, I see them keeping this game close. Dallas was only able to beat Cincinnati by nine points at Texas Stadium, so there’s no reason to believe they can beat Tampa Bay by double digits without Tony Romo.

Tampa Bay is definitely one of the top three teams in the NFC and top six in the NFL. I love the chance to get them and double digit points in any game at any location. So, I’ll take Jon Gruden’s team and a boatload of points. Also, I think both teams will at least reach 14 points, so I like teasing the Over as well.

Cleveland (2-4) at Jacksonville (3-3)

Time: 4:05 PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 70’s

PiRate: Jacksonville by 4

Mean: Jacksonville by 5

Bias: Jacksonville by 7

Vegas: Jacksonville by 7 -315/+285

Ov/Un: 42

Strategy: Cleveland +17 in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +20 in 13-point teaser, Under 55 in 13-point teaser

Welcome to Staphgate. The medical news coming out of Cleveland this week has overshadowed the team’s on-the-field performance. It could foretell a Browns’ collapse, but it could also cause the team to rally and play a fantastic 60 minutes of football.

Jacksonville may be the most boring team in the league unless you are an old Ohio State football fan who likes three yards and a cloud of dust football. Not having receivers Matt Jones and Mike Walker means the Jags will run the ball even more than the norm. Look for backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to combine for 30 attempts this week.

Cleveland has actually been playing decent football the last couple of weeks, and they could pull off another surprise or two in the coming weeks. The one problem this week is that Jacksonville has enjoyed an extra week of preparation. While I see the Jags winning this game, I am not sure they will be able to win big. Their biggest win to date is a seven point victory over Denver.

I like, but don’t love, taking the Browns in teasers. Because there could be more running than normal in this game, I also like teasing the Under at 55. I could see this game ending in a 27-20 score at a maximum.

Cincinnati (0-7) at Houston (2-4)

Time: 4:05PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 80’s

PiRate: Houston by 5

Mean: Houston by 8

Bias: Houston by 9

Vegas: Houston by 9½ -380/+335

Ov/Un: 44½

Strategy: Houston -380, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

This game was supposed to be played the week Hurricane Ike struck the Lone Star State. At the time, Cincinnati would have had a much better chance to win this game. Now, Houston enters this contest on a two-game winning streak, while the Bengals have more than likely folded their hand for the season. The Texans are almost double digit favorites.

The key stat for this game is the difference in the Bengals’ offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback instead of Carson Palmer. With Fitzpatrick running the team, Cincinnati has averaged 12 points per game. In Palmer’s four games, the Bengals averaged only 15.5 points per game, but they competed in those games against the likes of Baltimore, Tennessee, the Giants, and Dallas.

This will actually be the first weaker than average defense Cincinnati will face this season. I look for Fitzpatrick to lead the orange and black north of the 20-point barrier. However, the Bengals are hurting on the other side of the ball, and they will give up considerably more than 20 points to an improving offense. The Texans have average about 28 points per game the last four weeks against defenses that are mostly better than Cincinnati’s.

I could see this game being decided late, but I think Houston will make it three straight victories. I don’t like the line, so I recommend the money line. I am looking at a 28-21 score here, so I believe the totals can be teased safely.

New York Giants (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-1)

Time: 4:15PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to near 50

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 4

Mean: Pittsburgh by 4

Bias: Pittsburgh by 4

Vegas: Pittsburgh by 3 -140/+130

Ov/Un: 42

Strategy: Pittsburgh -3, Pittsburgh -140, Under 55 in 13-point teaser

This is the game of the week and could be a preview of the Super Bowl. I tend to think the Giants will not make it through the playoffs this year, but that is beyond the point this week.

In my opinion, the Steelers are capable of finishing 13-3 or even 14-2 and earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their defense will give up less than 250 points, and their offense will top 400 when the season ends. Running back Willie Parker should return to the field this week. Ben Roethlisberger is playing like an all-pro, and Hines Ward is playing with a chip on his shoulder.

The Giants have been relying on Brandon Jacobs to take enough heat off Eli Manning, and it has worked most weeks. Jacobs will not run the ball for 80 yards in this game, and Manning will have to win it with a big aerial assault. I don’t think he can pull it off. Call it a 20-13 win for the black and gold.

Seattle (1-5) at San Francisco (2-5)

Time: 4:15PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid to upper 70’s

PiRate: San Francisco by 7

Mean: San Francisco by 4

Bias: San Francisco by 5

Vegas: San Francisco by 5 -230/+190

Ov/Un: 40½

Strategy: San Francisco -230, San Francisco +5 in 10-point teaser, San Francisco +8 in 13-point teaser

Here, we have the initial second meeting of the season for divisional rivals. The 49ers won the first meeting in Seattle, but things have changed since then. Mike Nolan was shown the door last week after San Francisco lost at the Giants. The interim coach is former Bears’ great Mike Singletary. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who directed the Rams to a Super Bowl, was passed over. Now, take into consideration that lame-duck Seahawks’ coach Mike Holmgren has had to dispel rumors all week that he will be the new 49er coach in 2009, and it makes this game much harder to diagnose.

Which of these teams will be more ready to play? I think San Francisco will play with more emotion in the early stages of the Singletary administration. The players will fear him if they don’t bust their butts on every play. Martz will still have full authority on the offensive play-calling, so I think the 49ers will be an improved team, at least for the next few weeks. It adds up to a sweep in this year’s series, but I am not ready to call for a touchdown difference. Therefore, I am going with the money line as well as taking the home team in teasers.

Indianapolis (3-3) at Tennessee (6-0)

Time: 8:30PM EDT Monday

TV: ESPN

Forecast: Partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from upper 40’s to lower 40’s

PiRate: Tennessee by 11

Mean: Tennessee by 9

Bias: Tennessee by 8

Vegas: Tennessee by 4 -200/+170

Ov/Un: 41

Strategy: None

Let’s look at some of the facts for this game. It is the Monday night game, and we all know how unpredictable those games have proven to be through the years. It is the top rivalry game in the AFC South, and the two teams play like it is the old Raiders and Chiefs series from the AFL days. Tennessee has been running over run defenses like they have Walter Payton and Barry Sanders at running back. Indianapolis has been a feast or famine team with their offense either looking terrific or terrible from week-to-week.

The Colts could score 28 points and pick up 250-300 passing yards, but they could easily watch LenDale White and Chris Johnson combine for 250 or more rushing yards. Indianapolis hasn’t been able to stop enemy rushing attacks this year.

I just don’t like any possible plays here this week. I think Indianapolis could spoil the Titans’ perfect record if Peyton Manning plays like he did against Baltimore, but if he is not on his game and has a repeat performance of last week’s game in Green Bay, this game could be ugly. Tennessee would like nothing more than to win by three touchdowns and make the rest of the nation respect them at 7-0.

The Imaginary Bank Account Suffers First Losing Week

It had to happen. I knew my luck would run out eventually, and last week I suffered my first losing week of the year. The selections went 8-9 lowering my selections against the spread for the year to 52-28-3 (65%). The account gave up $310, and that lowered the balance to $1,675. For the year, my Return on investment is now 20.2%.

My straight selections continued to do well, as I was 3-1 on those picks. The Teasers let me down, as there were too many odd games. The Bears-Vikings game was a huge surprise to nearly everybody. How about that Rams-Cowboys game-somebody forgot to tell St. Louis they are no longer the “Greatest Show on Turf.”

This week, I am torn between playing straight picks, where I have been quite successful this season and playing the teasers, where I have been successful over the course of several years. It’s a tough call, but I am going to play more sides than teasers this week.

Here are my wagers for week eight (all wagered to win $100):

1. New England -7 vs. St. Louis

2. New England -315 vs. St. Louis

3. Carolina -4 vs. Arizona

4. Carolina -200 vs. Arizona

5. Baltimore -325 vs. Oakland

6. Detroit +7½ vs. Washington

7. Houston -380 vs. Cincinnati

8. San Francisco -230 vs. Seattle

9. Pittsburgh -3 vs. New York Giants

10. Pittsburgh -140 vs. New York Giants

11. 10-point teaser parlay

A. San Diego & New Orleans Over 36

B. Philadelphia & Atlanta Over 35

C. Miami +11 vs. Buffalo

12. 10-point teaser parlay

A. New England +3 vs. St. Louis

B. Carolina +6 vs. Arizona

C. Carolina & Arizona Over 33½

13. 10-point teaser parlay

A. Detroit +17½ vs. Washington

B. Tampa Bay +12½ vs. Dallas

C. San Francisco +5 vs. Seattle

14. 13-point teaser parlay

A. Jets & Kansas City Under 52

B. Philadelphia +3½ vs. Atlanta

C. Miami +14 vs. Buffalo

D. New England +6 vs. St. Louis

15. 13-point teaser parlay

A. Carolina +9 vs. Arizona

B. Carolina & Arizona Over 30½

C. Baltimore +6 vs. Oakland

D. Baltimore & Oakland Under 49

16. 13-point teaser parlay

A. Detroit +20½ vs. Washington

B. Detroit & Washington Over 29

C. Tampa Bay +15½ vs. Dallas

D. Tampa Bay & Dallas Over 27½

17. 13-point teaser parlay

A. Cleveland +20 vs. Jacksonville

B. New York Giants & Pittsburgh Under 55

C. San Francisco +8 vs. Seattle

D. Houston & Cincinnati Over 31½

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October 3, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 5 NFL Previews: October 5-6, 2008

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PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Five

The PiRate Pro Ratings

The Mean Ratings

The Bias Ratings

Current NFL Standings & Ratings

(alphabetically by division)

NFC East

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Dallas Cowboys

–

120

105.62

110.24

106.84

New York Giants

–

106.18

107.84

105.87

Philadelphia Eagles

–

110

104.29

109.20

104.57

Washington Redskins

–

106.50

107.53

106.48

NFC North

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Chicago Bears

–

108.05

107.28

103.74

Detroit Lions

–

113

77.87

91.85

85.61

Green Bay Packers

–

109

101

97.22

105.01

102.32

Minnesota Vikings

–

98.76

103.91

100.00

NFC South

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Atlanta Falcons

–

92.71

99.62

97.33

Carolina Panthers

–

107.98

105.90

105.24

New Orleans Saints

–

111

100

110.15

105.57

105.01

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

–

101

109.21

107.44

106.40

NFC West

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona Cardinals

–

106

103

98.46

101.91

100.74

St. Louis Rams

–

147

73.72

89.51

83.12

San Francisco 49ers

–

88.35

98.50

97.44

Seattle Seahawks

–

90.56

100.41

97.66

AFC East

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Buffalo Bills

–

109

106.64

98.99

104.80

Miami Dolphins

–

95.36

94.46

95.63

New England Patriots

–

94.77

96.65

101.35

New York Jets

–

115

116

99.40

96.86

99.92

AFC North

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Baltimore Ravens

–

102.14

98.35

102.57

Cincinnati Bengals

–

96.20

92.47

91.80

Cleveland Browns

–

91.71

93.68

94.15

Pittsburgh Steelers

–

100.53

100.52

103.28

AFC South

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Houston Texans

–

91.61

93.98

92.99

Indianapolis Colts

–

99.93

97.50

101.36

Jacksonville Jaguars

–

102.80

98.58

102.75

Tennessee Titans

–

102

111.36

103.45

106.63

AFC West

Won

Lost

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver Broncos

–

133

117

108.27

96.97

102.92

Kansas City Chiefs

–

85.33

90.22

90.98

Oakland Raiders

–

101

94.83

93.54

94.74

San Diego Chargers

–

138

112

111.16

101.91

105.68

NFL Previews-Week Five

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperatures 75-80

PiRate: Carolina by 25

Mean: Carolina by 18

Bias: Carolina by 16

Vegas: Carolina by 9½ -420/+350

Ov/Un: 38

Strategy: Kansas City +19½ in a 10-point teaser, Carolina +½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 28 in a 10-point teaser

Kansas City looked like a different team against Denver last week, but the Chiefs won’t run the ball for 200+ yards this week against the Panthers’ defense. Damon Huard completed a bunch of safe passes last week, but I believe he will have to throw the ball downfield more to give his team a chance to win Sunday.

Carolina is not the type of team that will beat an opponent 35-10. Their 15-point win over Atlanta last week is about the limit of their ability to win. The Panthers should move to 4-1, but I think this will be an entertaining game for most of the day. I’m looking for Carolina to win by about 10-14 points in the neighborhood of 27-17 to 27-13.

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

PiRate: Tennessee by 6

Mean: Tennessee by 2

Bias: Tennessee by 1

Vegas: Tennessee by 3 -150/+130

Ov/Un: 33

Strategy: Under 43 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +13 in 10-point teaser

If you really loved the old Packers-Vikings games back in the days when Coaches Lombardi and Grant went head-to-head, this is a must-watch game for you. These two teams are no longer in the same division, but the rivalry is still as strong as ever. They hate each other, and it will lead to a death-match in Baltimore.

The Ravens just don’t allow teams to run the ball, and Tennessee is one of the most run-dependent teams in the NFL. The Titans have little if any weakness on the defensive side, and they will throw multiple blitz packages at rookie quarterback Joe Flacco. I cannot see either team winning by more than a touchdown, so I am playing the home team in a 10-point teaser. Additionally, since I believe they are going to beat each other up, I expect the final score to be around 17-13. Keep an eye on the Raven’s injuries in this game. They must play at Indianapolis next week, and they are almost guaranteed to bounce. The Titans have a bye next week, and they couldn’t have asked for a better time for it.

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Scattered thunderstorms, windy, temperature in low 80’s

PiRate: San Diego by 14

Mean: San Diego by 5

Bias: San Diego by 4

Vegas: San Diego by 6½ -260/+220

Ov/Un: 45

Strategy: Miami +16½ in 10-point teaser, Over 35 in 10-point teaser

Miami actually used a real single wing offense with unbalanced line two weeks ago against New England, and the Patriots were caught with their pants down. The Dolphins scored four touchdowns in just a handful of single wing plays, including a brilliant touchdown pass from the hands of tailback Ronnie Brown. What’s next? Is Brown going to punt out of this formation and become a true triple-threat?

Anything that upsets a teams’ normal weekly routine has an effect on the scoreboard on Sunday. The Chargers aren’t the best defensive team in the AFC, and they have been forced to prepare for the possibility that the Dolphins will not only use it again this week, but they might have added more to the package. I expect Miami to run this old-time formation about five to eight times, as any more usage will kill its effectiveness.

For these reasons, I think this should be a higher than expected scoring game, and Miami will stay in this game for longer than most people expect. In fact, if the Dolphins’ defense can force Phillip Rivers to beat them instead of LaDainian Tomlinson, they have a decent shot at another upset.

Seattle (1-2) at New York Giants (3-0)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 65

PiRate: New York by 18

Mean: New York by 9

Bias: New York by 10

Vegas: New York by 7 -330/+270

Ov/Un: 43½

Strategy: New York -7, New York +3 in 10-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser

Both teams had two weeks to prepare for this game. The last time these two teams played a game when both they and their opponents had two weeks to prepare were their two most recent Super Bowl games. The Giants fared rather well in their Super Bowl, while the Seahawks did not. That’s not the only reason I like the Giants this week. Seattle just doesn’t show up when they travel from coast to coast. Buffalo drilled them 34-10 in week one, so the trend continues in 2008.

New York can realistically think about a 6-0 start before heading to Pittsburgh in week eight. The Giants are winning games in the same manner as they finished 2007-with strong defense and ball-control offense. They are emulating the Packers of the 1960’s. This team is not resting on its laurels, and Coach Tom Coughlin, like Vince Lombardi, is too tough of a guy to allow the team to just show up expecting to win. I think the Giants can win by 14 or more points in this game, so I like them straight up as well as in a teaser. I’m considering teasing the Over because 34 total points is easily possible in this game.

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

PiRate: Pick

Mean: Philadelphia by 4

Bias: Pick

Vegas: Philadelphia by 6 -260/+220

Ov/Un: 42

Strategy: Washington +16 in 10-point teaser, Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia -260, Philadelphia +4 in 10-point teaser

They’re talking do-or-die up in the City of Brotherly Love. While the Phillies are getting the headlines, the Eagles cannot afford to begin the season 2-3 in the league’s top division. It’s possible that three NFC East teams will make the playoffs for the second straight year, but the Eagles could be the odd team out once again if they fall two games behind the other three teams.

The Redskins rode an emotional high all week after thumping the Cowboys in Big D last Sunday. They can only bounce this week, but this will still be a close game. Washington has played four close games so far, while the Eagles have played three consecutive nail-biters after toying with the St. Louis Lambs. There’s no reason to think this game will be any different. It should be exciting, but I think the Eagles will be ready to stay in the playoff hunt. I’m looking at a final score of Philadelphia 24 Washington 20.

Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature near 85 (this game will be an outdoor game due to roof damage at Reliant Stadium)

PiRate: Indianapolis by 5

Mean: Indianapolis by 1

Bias: Indianapolis by 5

Vegas: Indianapolis by 3 -170/+150

Ov/Un: 47

Strategy: Indianapolis -3, Indianapolis +7 in 10-point teaser, Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis -170

Either the Colts are going to get off the mat and begin to play like the Colts that we all know, or this is going to quickly become a long season in Indy. They are heading into a shootout in Houston this week, as the Texans finally get a home game. Reliant Stadium has undergone some changes thank to Ike’s Construction Company. That blowhard Ike took off the roof and temporarily turned it into an open venue.

If Houston wins this game, Peyton’s place will be last in the AFC South. I just cannot see that happening, especially when Indianapolis had a week off to prepare. The Colts should square their record and win this game by at least a touchdown. I also think this week will see them reaching 28 points for the first time this year, so I like teasing the Over. My guess at the final score is 28-17 Indianapolis.

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Scattered showers, light wind, temperature in low 50’s

PiRate: Green Bay by 7

Mean: Green Bay by 7

Bias: Green Bay by 7

Vegas: No Line (Aaron Rodgers ?)

Ov/Un: No Line

Strategy: N/A

As of Friday morning, Aaron Rodgers is still questionable for this game, so no official line has been issued. Rodgers is probably worth 5-7 points, so if Matt Flynn starts and plays, Green Bay is in trouble. The Falcons are capable of winning a low-scoring game on the road with two rookie quarterbacks playing. The weather may also force both teams to stick to a ground game.

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3)

Time: 1PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Dome

PiRate: Chicago by 27

Mean: Chicago by 12

Bias: Chicago by 15

Vegas: Chicago by 3½ -200/+170

Ov/Un: 44½

Strategy: Detroit +13½ in a 10-point teaser, Under 54½ in 10-point teaser

Chicago has a chance to take over first place in the old black and blue division. If Rodgers cannot go for Green Bay, Chicago could easily be alone at the top of the standings if they can edge an old, weak rival this week.

Don’t expect Detroit to hand over the game to the Bears. The Lions can score points, and they could force Chicago to reach the 30-point mark to beat them. The Lions have had an extra week to prepare for this game, and they could be this week’s Kansas City Chiefs. I don’t believe Chicago is capable of blowing Detroit off their home field, so I like the 10-point teaser in this one. Since I believe the Bears will try to control the clock and hold the score down, I also like the Under in a teaser. This game could easily be a 24-21 affair. Even if it goes to overtime at 24-24, a touchdown won’t kill the teaser. However, a big day by Devin Hester and/or Calvin Johnson could push the total over 55.

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)

Time: 4:05 PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Isolated thunderstorms, light wind, temperature around 60

PiRate: Denver by 1

Mean: Tampa Bay by 8

Bias: Tampa Bay by 1

Vegas: Denver by 3 -170/+150

Ov/Un: 47½

Strategy: Tampa Bay +13 in 10-point teaser, Over 37½ in 10-point teaser

This should be a quite entertaining game. I call it close to a 50-50 tossup. The Broncos were tamed in Kansas City last week, and they should be more focused for this game and not suffer a four turnover repeat.

Tampa Bay’s offense has improved a little every week thus far, and the Bucs have to be considered a serious contender for the NFC Championship. Their defense is strong enough to keep Jay Cutler and company from scoring 30 points, but I think Denver is still capable of scoring 24-28 points.

Denver’s defense has yet to prove they can stop a competent offense, and Tampa Bay should easily top 20 points in this one. Denver has a 55-60% chance of winning outright, but they won’t win convincingly, and the game should still be up for grabs well into the fourth quarter. Thus, I like the underdog Bucs getting double digits in a 10-point teaser, and I like the Over in a teaser.

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)

Time: 4:15 PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Partly cloudy, windy, temperature in upper 80’s

PiRate: Dallas by 11

Mean: Dallas by 20

Bias: Dallas by 17

Vegas: Dallas by 17 -1500/+1100

Ov/Un: 44

Strategy: Cincinnati +27 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser

This is purely a numbers’ pick here. I don’t think Cincinnati has a chance to win this game, even if Carson Palmer is able to play. I don’t think they can stay within 10 points of Dallas even if Palmer has a 250 yard passing day. However, 27 points is just plain ridiculous to get in a teaser. Dallas could jump out to a 28-0 lead and then cruise to a 38-14 win, and they wouldn’t cover at 27.

The Cowboys have an excellent shot at topping 35 points and satisfying the Over in a teaser, but for our sake let’s hope we get that 38-14 blowout and nothing worse.

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)

Time: 4:15 PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Partly cloudy, windy, temperature around 80

PiRate: Buffalo by 5

Mean: Buffalo by 6

Bias: Buffalo by 1

Vegas: Pick Arizona -115, Buffalo -105

Ov/Un: 44½

Strategy: Arizona Pk, Arizona +10 in 10-point teaser, Over 34½ in 10-point teaser

I’ve been keying on this game all week. I think the Cardinals should be favored by at least a field goal, and it looks like the start of a nice gift as a pick. Right off the bat, a 10-point teaser looks like a 13-point cushion to me.

Buffalo is a good team, but they are not so good that they can go on the road 2,000 miles and beat a playoff-quality team. I just don’t see the Bills at 5-0 on Monday morning.

Arizona has only played one home game, and they looked strong in their destruction of the Dolphins. When Miami thumped New England the following week, the 21-point Cardinals’ victory looked even better. Throw in the fact that the Bills are making a second consecutive road trip, and I think they will be just a little off this week. I like the Cardinals to win outright at home, and I could see this one becoming a shootout. My guess is Arizona will win by a score similar to 35-28.

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)

Time: 4:15 PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Showers likely, windy, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

PiRate: New England by 3

Mean: San Francisco by 5

Bias: New England by 1

Vegas: New England by 3 -200/+170

Ov/Un: 41

Strategy: San Francisco +13 in 10-point teaser

This game is this week’s toughest for me to gauge. New England lost big at home against Miami two weeks ago. With two weeks to prepare for the 49er passing game, the Patriots’ defense should be up to the challenge. I think they will hold J. T. O’Sullivan below his average of 240 passing yards per game.

San Francisco has moved the ball this year, but the 49ers have struggled to put points on the board at times. Their current average of 14.2 yards gained per point scored is not going to get them into the playoffs, but it could allow them to win this game. They are likely to struggle to reach 300 yards in this game. If they gain 280 total yards, that would mean they would fail to score 20 points. However, the Patriots haven’t scored 20 points in any of their first three games. Throw in the fact that they are traveling west more than 3,000 miles, and the edge begins to tilt toward the upstart home team.

Whether or not San Francisco can win and possibly stay in a first place tie in the weak NFC West is up for debate, but I cannot see New England winning by 14 points. Thus, I think taking the 49ers in a 10-point teaser is the way to go with this game.

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2)

Time: 8:15 PM EDT

TV: NBC

Forecast: Clear, windy, temperature dropping from 80 to the low 70’s

PiRate: Jacksonville by 5

Mean: Jacksonville by 1

Bias: Jacksonville by 2

Vegas: Jacksonville by 4 -215/+185

Ov/Un: 36

Strategy: Over 36, Over 26 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +6 in 10-point teaser

If you have Ben Roethlisberger on your fantasy team, you could see him throw the ball 40-50 times this week. I’m not into fantasies, so the only way that could help me is to see Big Ben connect on 25-30 of those passes for 300-400 yards and a couple of touchdowns. What that would do is make this game a higher than expected offensive exhibition.

Jacksonville likes to hold onto the ball for long drives and take chunks off the clock, but I don’t think the Jaguars can do that against the Steelers’ defense. The Jags gave up 27 to Houston, and Pittsburgh should top 20 as well even with no running attack whatsoever. What it means to me is that Jacksonville should score points aplenty this week and win by a score of something like 31-24. The Over 26 becomes my top priority in a 10-point teaser parlay, and if I was an aggressive guy, I might play this in every parlay. Since my imaginary bank account is up by over a grand from the start of the season, I won’t be liberal even with play money, so I will use it just once.

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)

Time: 8:30 PM EDT Monday

TV: ESPN

Forecast: Dome

PiRate: New Orleans by 13

Mean: New Orleans by 4

Bias: New Orleans by 7

Vegas: New Orleans by 3 -215/+185

Ov/Un: 46½

Strategy: Over 36½ in 10-point teaser

Monday night games tend to be higher than average scoring games. New Orleans can score points with anybody in the league, and the Vikings can score points when their running game gets untracked.

Adrian Peterson is facing a Saints’ defense that surrendered 82 rushing yards in 16 attempts to Frank Gore, 65 yards in 11 attempts to Selvin Young, 96 yards on 21 attempts to Clinton Portis, and 91 yards on 10 attempts to backup Buc runner Earnest Graham. Look for A.P. to run the ball 25 times for 150-200 yards in this game. Minnesota will reach their season-to-date high point on the scoreboard Monday night; the Vikings should hit or top the 24-point mark.

Will 24 points be enough to win at the Superdome? I’m not sure, but I am sure without a doubt that the Saints will top 14. 24 plus 14 means this game should easily go Over in a 10-point teaser. Let’s lay off any side in this one and watch our Over win early in the second half.

The Imaginary Bank Account Turns A Profit For A Fourth Straight Week

Four weeks does not a season make, but I must admit I am quite pleased with how my picks against the spread have fared so far. I not only made it a perfect four for four in winning weeks, I finished better than 70% for the second time in three weeks. My picks finished 5-2-2 for 71.4% for the week, and those two pushes were on third parts of teasers. For the season, my record against the spread stands at 27-12-3 for 69.2%, and my bank account added another $260 to make the new profit $1,265 for the season. My return on investment is now 30.1%. I am going to stick with what has been winning, namely 10-point teaser parlays. I will use that 10-point change to turn favorites into underdogs and force favorites to blow out their opponents to beat me. I will tease the totals line to give me very opportunistic numbers.

Here are my wagers for week five (all wagered to win $100):

1. New York Giants -7 vs. Seattle

2. Philadelphia -260 vs. Washington

3. Indianapolis -3 vs. Houston

4. Indianapolis -170 vs. Houston

5. Arizona Pk vs. Buffalo

6. 10-point teaser

a. Carolina +½ vs. Kansas City

b. Baltimore +13 vs. Tennessee

c. Miami +16½ vs. San Diego

7. 10-point teaser

a. Kansas City & Carolina Over 28

b. Miami & San Diego Over 35

c. New York Giants +3 vs. Seattle

8. 10-point teaser

a. Washington +16 vs. Philadelphia

b. Indianapolis +7 vs. Houston

c. Detroit +13½ vs. Chicago

9. 10-point teaser

a. Detroit & Chicago Under 54½

b. Tampa Bay +13 vs. Denver

c. Jacksonville +6 vs. Pittsburgh

10. 10-point teaser

a. Tampa Bay & Denver Over 37½

b. Cincinnati & Dallas Over 34

c. Arizona +10 vs. Buffalo

11. 10-point teaser

a. Cincinnati +27 vs. Dallas

b. Arizona & Buffalo Over 34½

c. Pittsburgh & Jacksonville Over 26

AND REMEMBER!!! Do not use these picks for real. I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment. I won’t lose a penny if all nine wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either. This is strictly for fun.

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PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Five

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