The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 8, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 6, October 11-15, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
N.Y. Giants Philadelphia -2.6 -2.7 -1.8 44.0
Atlanta Tampa Bay 8.7 8.8 8.1 49.0
Washington Carolina -0.9 -1.4 -1.2 45.5
Oakland [London] Seattle -6.8 -6.3 -6.9 44.0
N.Y. Jets Indianapolis 5.8 6.8 5.7 47.0
Minnesota Arizona 9.2 10.3 9.4 40.0
Cincinnati Pittsburgh -2.3 -1.8 -1.4 46.0
Cleveland L.A. Chargers -1.4 -1.9 -0.7 46.5
Houston Buffalo 8.0 7.7 7.8 40.5
Miami Chicago -2.5 -2.6 -3.2 42.0
Denver L.A. Rams -8.1 -9.4 -9.4 48.0
Tennessee Baltimore -2.0 -2.5 -2.7 42.0
Dallas Jacksonville -1.3 -1.2 -2.1 40.0
New England Kansas City 1.0 1.1 0.5 48.0
Green Bay San Francisco 8.1 8.4 7.7 47.5

Detroit and New Orleans have Byes

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.9 105.3 104.9 105.0 21.5 3-2
N. Y. Jets 98.4 98.1 98.4 98.3 23 2-3
Miami 97.1 96.6 97.0 96.9 21.5 3-2
Buffalo 93.6 93.7 93.4 93.5 16 2-3
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.4 104.8 23 2-2-1
Baltimore 103.5 104.0 103.6 103.7 22 3-2
Cincinnati 100.2 100.7 100.5 100.5 23 4-1
Cleveland 96.5 96.8 97.4 96.9 23 2-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.1 103.0 103.3 103.1 21 3-2
Houston 98.6 98.4 98.2 98.4 24.5 2-3
Tennessee 98.4 98.5 97.9 98.3 20 3-2
Indianapolis 95.7 94.3 95.6 95.2 24 1-4
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.9 107.3 107.4 107.2 26.5 5-0
LA Chargers 100.9 101.7 101.1 101.3 23.5 3-2
Denver 97.2 96.8 96.4 96.8 21.5 2-3
Oakland 94.2 94.5 94.2 94.3 21.5 1-4
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.2 101.2 100.6 101.0 22.5 2-3
Dallas 98.8 98.7 98.2 98.6 19 2-3
Washington 98.9 97.9 98.9 98.6 22.5 2-2
N.Y. Giants 96.6 96.5 96.8 96.6 21.5 1-4
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.5 102.2 103.2 102.6 20.5 3-1
Minnesota 102.0 102.2 101.9 102.0 21.5 2-2-1
Detroit 100.4 100.6 100.6 100.5 26.5 2-3
Green Bay 99.6 100.3 99.2 99.7 24 2-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.5 107.5 107.7 107.6 26.5 4-1
Carolina 102.3 101.8 102.5 102.2 23 3-1
Atlanta 101.4 101.3 101.3 101.3 25 1-4
Tampa Bay 95.2 95.0 95.7 95.3 24 2-2
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.3 109.2 108.8 108.8 26.5 5-0
Seattle 101.0 100.8 101.1 101.0 22.5 2-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 18.5 1-4
San Francisco 94.5 94.9 94.5 94.6 23.5 1-4

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Cincinnati
4 Jacksonville
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Cincinnati over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Jacksonville
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Philadelphia

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
New England over Cincinnati
L.A. Rams over Carolina
New Orleans over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
Kansas City over L.A. Rams

 

 

 

 

 

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September 20, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 3: September 22-26,2016

Quarterback Issues Abound

It is almost inevitable that in today’s philosophy of passing the ball more than running, and with a 16- game schedule, that quarterback injuries would increase from the prior generation of NFL Football.

Certain teams lack pass blockers sufficient to deter the superior pass rushers of today’s game, and all sorts of inventive disguising of pass rush have contributed as much if not more to the troubles.

Just two weeks into the 2016 NFL season, two teams are already on quarterback number three, and others have gone to quarterback number two.

In Cleveland, where the Browns were weak enough before losing Robert Griffin, III and Josh McCown, rookie Cody Kessler will get the start this week at Miami.  Adam Gase’s defense is not the issue in Dolphinland.  Expect Kessler to be running for his life early and often.

New England is down to quarterback number three only due to Tom Brady’d suspension.  If the Pats can sneak through two weeks with Jacoby Brissett, then the king can return.  And, if something should happen to Brissett Thursday night against Houston, we may see wide receiver Julian Edelman move to quarterback.  Edelman has beaten Buffalo and Miami while playing quarterback, but that was when he was at Kent State, and the two teams were the Buffalo Bulls and Miami of Ohio Redhawks.

Jay Cutler’s thumb injury could be reason for John Fox to go with Brian Hoyer.  The Bears, already struggling on offense, may have a difficult time matching the Rams for points in the near future.

Then there is the case of a possible Wally Pipp injury.  When Tony Romo went down in Dallas, rookie Dak Prescott entered and drew comparisons to Roger Staubach.  Staubach once came in as a replacement to Craig Morton.  It took a little shuffling, but Morton soon became a bench-warmer before becoming a New York Giant and Denver Bronco.  Staubach led the Cowboys to two Super Bowl Championships and two others, where Dallas came very close to winning.

And, there is Sam Bradford in Minnesota.  This Vikings team may have to totally change the way it plays now with Adrian Peterson out for a lengthy time and maybe the season.  Bradford showed signs of returning to form in the Sunday night win over Green Bay.  The Vikings have been down this road before.  After the Joe Kapp, Dave Osborn, Bill Brown days of plodding offense, and the two-year babysitting of the job by Gary Cuozzo, Fran Tarkenton came back to Bloomington after a five-year sojourn in the Big Apple, and he teamed up with John Gilliam and Jim Lash, while the Purple People Eaters’ defense continued to dominate, leading the Vikings to the Super Bowl three times in four seasons.  Might this be the year the Vikings make it back?  The NFC looks like a wide-open race this year.

 

Two Weeks Are Not A Trend, But

Through two weeks of the season, the average score of an NFL game comes to less than 42 points per game, or less than 21 points per team.  The Los Angeles Rams have three field goals in two games.  The Seattle Seahawks have three field goals and a touchdown in two games, and that one TD came with 30 seconds remaining at home against Miami.  Is it because the Dolphins and Rams have great defenses that Seattle is averaging just 7.5 points per game?  Are the 49ers and Seahawks so strong defensively that LA averages just 4.5 points per game?

San Francisco gave up close to 50 to Carolina last week.  The problem at the L.A. Coliseum is an archaic offense that Jeff Fisher refuses to alter.  He is a Mike Ditka disciple, but he needs to realize that the 1985 Bears are not coming through the Coliseum locker room doors.  He does not have Eddie George in his backfield, even though Todd Gurley is talented.

Sports metric experts have shown that the key to winning in the NFL is being able to pass the ball and being able to stop the pass.  Running stats are padded by winning teams because they usually run the ball to eat the clock when they lead in the last 20 minutes of games, and the losing team abandons the run to try to catch up.  Fisher is basically the Gene Mauch of football.  Mauch took a lot of excellent baseball teams and guided them to respectable 90-win seasons, while the talent on hand was good enough to win 100 games.

Fisher isn’t alone.  Mike Mularkey and Rex Ryan think you can be the 1985 Bears or even 1963 Bears and win the Super Bowl.  It is true that Denver won last year without a dominating passing game, but they did not have a dominating running game.  They dominated by stopping the pass and by getting just enough passing yards to win.  Even a damaged Peyton Manning was good enough to accumulate necessary passing yards.  The Broncos did not run early and often.  They did not run on first down, run on second down and then pass conservatively on third down.  The metrics actually show that passing on first and second down and on third and less than five is the better percentage play, while running becomes the better option only on third and six to 12 yards.  And, for that matter, going for it on fourth down and less than 4 when outside your own 30 yard line is the  better statistical move (as is going for it on 4th and less than 4 when in field goal range).

Certainly, going against the traditional methods will occasionally cost a team a win, but in rebuttal, going against tradition will allow teams to win games they would have lost by using the old playbook tendencies.  And, the ignorant media will run a coach out of town on a rail for going against tradition and losing while never complimenting the coach that bucks the system and wins.  Hey, they are in the business, because they didn’t do so well in math class.

This Week’s Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
N. Y. Jets 103.9 101.6 105.1 103.5 62 42
New England 101.4 99.3 101.8 100.8 60 41
Buffalo 98.6 99.5 98.7 98.9 59 40
Miami 96.1 96.9 96.1 96.3 58 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Cincinnati 106.9 106.3 107.8 107.0 64 43
Pittsburgh 105.9 105.5 107.2 106.2 65 41
Baltimore 98.7 100.9 98.4 99.3 61 38
Cleveland 89.9 90.9 89.3 90.0 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 101.8 103.0 102.1 102.3 64 38
Indianapolis 97.1 98.9 96.0 97.3 61 36
Jacksonville 95.1 96.9 94.4 95.5 58 38
Tennessee 93.9 95.9 93.4 94.4 54 40
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 106.4 103.1 106.5 105.3 62 43
Kansas City 101.8 101.5 102.5 101.9 63 39
San Diego 99.9 100.9 99.7 100.2 64 36
Oakland 97.7 98.4 97.6 97.9 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 101.0 98.0 100.4 99.8 62 38
N.Y. Giants 99.0 98.3 98.7 98.7 62 37
Washington 97.3 98.1 97.0 97.5 61 37
Dallas 94.6 94.9 94.1 94.5 56 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 104.4 103.7 104.4 104.2 64 40
Minnesota 102.9 101.9 103.4 102.7 60 43
Detroit 99.2 99.0 98.8 99.0 62 37
Chicago 95.4 93.3 95.1 94.6 56 39
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 109.4 108.2 110.3 109.3 65 44
New Orleans 99.1 101.5 98.4 99.7 64 36
Atlanta 96.9 99.8 96.8 97.8 62 36
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.8 95.1 95.9 59 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Arizona 110.0 107.5 110.9 109.5 69 41
Seattle 106.4 103.3 107.1 105.6 63 43
Los Angeles 97.9 99.4 97.4 98.3 56 42
San Francisco 95.6 96.8 95.7 96.0 56 40

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Score
New England Houston 2.6 -0.7 2.7 23-21
Buffalo Arizona -7.9 -4.5 -8.7 20-27
Carolina Minnesota 9.5 9.3 9.9 24-14
Cincinnati Denver 3.5 6.2 4.3 21-16
Green Bay Detroit 7.7 7.2 8.1 28-20
Jacksonville Baltimore -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 20-21
Miami Cleveland 9.2 9.0 9.8 26-17
New York Giants Washington 4.2 2.7 4.5 27-23
Tennessee Oakland -0.8 0.5 -1.2 20-21
Seattle San Francisco 13.8 9.5 14.4 23-10
Tampa Bay Los Angeles 1.5 0.9 1.2 17-16
Indianapolis San Diego 0.2 1.0 -0.7 28-27
Kansas City New York Jets 0.9 2.9 0.4 24-23
Philadelphia Pittsburgh -2.9 -5.5 -4.8 23-27
Dallas Chicago 2.2 4.6 2.0 20-17
New Orleans Atlanta 5.2 4.7 4.6 31-26

 

August 27, 2015

2015 AFC North Preview

Three of the four AFC North teams have won at least two division titles in the past six years.  Only Cleveland has yet to get into the race, and we see much of the same again this year.  Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh could all finish 10-6.  Pittsburgh’s offense is good enough to score 450 points, but their defense might give up 400.  Baltimore has a defense capable of dominating with an offense that is inconsistent.  Cincinnati is not as strong offensively as Pittsburgh or defensively as Baltimore, but they are better offensively than Baltimore and defensively than Pittsburgh.

 

Baltimore breaks in yet another offensive coordinator after Gary Kubiak went to Denver.  Deposed Bears’ head coach Mark Trestman comes to the Harbor when the team has reeled in an incredible catch for QB Joe Flacco.  Breshad Perriman arrives from Central Florida, where the speedster’s slash line of 50/1044/9 foretells future greatness on Sundays.

 

Cincinnati is looking for its fifth consecutive playoff appearance.  Maybe one of these years, the Bengals will actually win a playoff game.  Fans and media alike blame QB Andy Dalton, but the last time we checked, Dalton did not have massive holes open up in the defensive line, nor did he drop any passes thrown right at his numbers.  Dalton is more a reason why the Bengals are in the playoffs and not the reason they lose in the first round.  Last year, Cincinnati swept Baltimore.

 

After week 12, the AFC North standings looked like this:

Cincinnati  7-3-1

Cleveland  7-4-0

Baltimore  7-4-0

Pittsburgh 7-4-0

Yes, Cleveland was right in the thick of the race and had wins over Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.  Four of their final games were against playoff teams, while the fifth came against a team that went 9-7.  The Browns dropped all five games to finish 7-9, and now most pundits believe they will not match that win total this year.

 

Pittsburgh enters 2015 without two defensive icons in the Steel City.  Troy Polamalu retired, while defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau resigned and took the head defensive position with the Tennessee Titans.  The Steel Curtain Defense has become moth-eaten, and Pittsburgh may have to outscore opponents in shootouts to get back to the playoffs.

 

Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Kamar Aiken
WR Breshad Perriman
WR Steve Smith
TE Crockett Gillmore
LT Eugene Monroe
LG Kelechi Osemele
C Jeremy Zuttah
RG Marshal Yanda
RT Ricky Wagner
QB Joe Flacco
HB Justin Forsett
FB Kyle Zuszczyk
   
Defense
DE/DT Timmy Jernigan
DT Brandon Williams
DE Chris Canty
LB Terrell Suggs
LB C. J. Mosley
LB Daryl Smith
LB Courtney Upshaw
CB Ladarius Webb
S Will Hill
S Kendrick Lewis
CB Jimmy Smith
N5 Kyle Arrington
   
Special
Kicker Justin Tucker
Punter Sam Koch
KR Asa Jackson
PR Michael Campanero
Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach John Harbaugh
Off. Coordinator Marc Trestman
Def. Coordinator Dean Pees
2014 W-L-T 10-6-0
Pts 25.6
Opp 18.9
   
Ratings  
PiRate 106.7
Mean 105.1
Bias 108.2
Average 106.7
   
Grades  
Running C
Passing B
Vs. Run A-
Vs. Pass B+
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles A
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 1
Conference Rank 2
Overall Rank 4
Postseason Yes

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Starting Lineup
Offense
WR A. J. Green
WR Mohamed Sanu
TE Tyler Eifert
TE Ryan Hewitt
LT Andrew Whitworth
LG Clint Boling
C Russell Bodine
RG Kevin Zeitler
RT Andre Smith
QB Andy Dalton
HB Jeremy Hill
FB Mark Weisman
   
Defense
DE Carlos Dunlap
DT Domata Peko
DT Geno Atkins
DE Michael Johnson
LB Emmanuel Lamur
LB Rey Maualuga
LB Vontaze Burfict
CB Dre Kirkpatrick
S George Iloka
S Reggie Nelson
CB Adam Jones
N5 Leon Hall
   
Special
Kicker Mike Nugent
Punter Kevin Huber
KR Brandon Tate
PR Adam Jones
Cincinnati Bengals
Head Coach Marvin Lewis
Off. Coordinator Hue Jackson
Def. Coordinator Paul Guenther
2014 W-L-T 10-5-1
Pts 22.8
Opp 21.5
   
Ratings  
PiRate 102.9
Mean 103.3
Bias 102.9
Average 103.0
   
Grades  
Running B+
Passing C+
Vs. Run B-
Vs. Pass B
Special Teams B+
Coaching + Intangibles C+
   
Predicted W-L 10-6-0
Division Rank 2
Conference Rank 5
Overall Rank 9
Postseason Yes

 

Cleveland Browns

Browns Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Andrew Hawkins
WR Brian Hartline
WR Taylor Gabriel
TE Gary Barnidge
LT Joe Thomas
LG Joel Bitonio
C Alex Mack
RG John Greco
RT Mitchell Schwartz
QB Josh McCown
HB Isaiah Crowell
FB Luke Lundy
   
Defense
DE Randy Starks
DT Phil Taylor
DE Desmond Bryant
LB Paul Kruger
LB Chris Kirksey
LB Karlos Dansby
LB Scott Solomon
CB Tramon Williams
S Donte Whitner
S Tashaun Gipson
CB Joe Haden
N5 K’Waun Williams
   
Special
Kicker Carey Spear or Travis Coons
Punter Andy Lee
KR Marlin Moore
PR Travis Benjamin
Cleveland Browns
Head Coach Mike Pettine
Off. Coordinator John DeFilippo
Def. Coordinator Jim O’Neil
2014 W-L-T 7-9-0
Pts 18.7
Opp 21.1
   
Ratings  
PiRate 95.4
Mean 92.7
Bias 95.6
Average 94.6
   
Grades  
Running C
Passing C-
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass B+
Special Teams D
Coaching + Intangibles C-
   
Predicted W-L 6-10-0
Division Rank 4
Conference Rank 13
Overall Rank 27
Postseason No

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Antonio Brown
WR Markus Wheaton
WR Martavis Bryant
TE Heath Miller
LT Kelvin Beachum
LG Ramon Foster
C Cody Wallace
RG David DeCastro
RT Marcus Gilbert
QB Ben Roethlisberger
HB Le’Veon Bell
FB Will Johnson
   
Defense
DE Cameron Hayward
DT Steve McLendon
DE Stephon Tuitt
LB Arthur Moats
LB Ryan Shazier
LB Lawrence Timmons
LB Jarvis Jones
CB Cortez Allen
S Shamarko Thomas
S Mike Mitchell
CB William Gay
N5 Brandon Boykin
   
Special
Kicker Garrett Hartley
Punter Brad Wing
KR Markus Wheaton
PR Antonio Brown
Pittsburgh Steelers
Head Coach Mike Tomlin
Off. Coordinator Todd Haley
Def. Coordinator Keith Butler
2014 W-L-T 11-5-0
Pts 27.3
Opp 23.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 102.8
Mean 102.8
Bias 102.5
Average 102.7
   
Grades  
Running B+
Passing A
Vs. Run C-
Vs. Pass C-
Special Teams C
Coaching + Intangibles C+
   
Predicted W-L 8-8-0
Division Rank 3
Conference Rank 6
Overall Rank 11
Postseason No

 

November 14, 2013

PiRate Picks For November 14-18, 2013

We are going with 7 strong plays this week, sticking with what works.

 

Our college Money Line Parlays keep winning for us, and our NFL 13-point Teasers do so as well, so let’s just stick with those two options until it runs its course.

 

1. Money Line Parlay @ -117

Florida Atlantic over Southern Miss.

SMU over Connecticut

San Diego St. over Hawaii

 

2. Money Line Parlay @ -113

Central Florida over Temple

Akron over Massachusetts

Kansas St. over TCU

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ -112

Marshall over Tulsa

Boston College over North Carolina St.

South Carolina over Florida

 

4. Money Line Parlay @ -101

Clemson over Georgia Tech

Navy over South Alabama

Arizona over Washington St.

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis +10 vs. Tennessee

Tampa Bay +14 ½ vs. Atlanta

NY Jets +14 vs. Buffalo

Pittsburgh +15 ½ vs. Detroit

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Detroit + 10 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Washington +17 ½ vs. Philadelphia

San Diego + 11 ½ vs. Miami

Baltimore +16 vs. Chicago

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Cleveland +19 vs. Cincinnati

Oakland +20 vs. Houston

Seattle Pk. vs. Minnesota

New England +15 ½ vs. Carolina

August 27, 2013

2013 AFC North Preview

2013 A F C North Preview

The AFC North Division returns the defending Super Bowl Champion this year, but the Baltimore Ravens have lost a lot of veteran talent from that team.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC North

 

South

Color

Red

Green

Blue

Baltimore Ravens

Purple

36

23

115

 

Black

17

28

36

 

Metallic Gold

176

140

13

Cincinnati Bengals

Orange

249

70

28

 

Black

17

28

36

Cleveland Browns

Brown

51

43

42

 

Orange

249

70

28

Pittsburgh Steelers

Black

17

28

36

 

Gold

255

182

18

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Cincinnati Bengals

103.5

103.7

103.8

10-6-0

391

320

Baltimore Ravens

102.5

102.9

103.2

10-6-0

398

344

Pittsburgh Steelers

100.0

100.8

101.4

8-8-0

336

314

Cleveland Browns

95.0

95.4

95.7

5-11-0

302

368

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Baltimore Ravens

105.0

104.2

105.3

Cincinnati Bengals

102.5

102.7

102.6

Pittsburgh Steelers

100.7

100.0

100.5

Cleveland Browns

94.4

95.4

94.8

 

PiRate Previews

Team

Baltimore Ravens

               
Head Coach

John Harbaugh

O-Coord.

Jim Caldwell

D-Coord.

Dean Pees

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Joe Flacco

Running Back

Ray Rice

H-Back

Vonta Leach

Wide Receiver

Torrey Smith

Wide Receiver

Jacoby Jones

Tight End

Ed Dickson

Left Tackle

Bryant McKinnie

Left Guard

Kelechi Osemele

Center

Gino Gradkowski

Right Guard

Marshal Yanda

Right Tackle

Michael Oher

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Arthur Jones

Nose Tackle

Haloti Ngata

Right End

Chris Canty

Left OLB

Terrell Suggs

Left ILB

Josh Bynes

Right ILB

Daryl Smith

Right OLB

Elvis Dumervil

Left CB

Ladarius Webb

Right CB

Corey Graham

Strong Safety

James Ihedigbo

Free Safety

Michael Huff

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Justin Tucker

Punter

Sam Koch

K-Return

Jacoby Jones

P-Return

Jacoby Jones

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

10-6

Division

1st Tie (1st in tiebreaker)

 

 

Team

Cincinnati Bengals

               
Head Coach

Marvin Lewis

O-Coord.

Jay Gruden

D-Coord.

Mike Zimmer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Andy Dalton

Running Back

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Fullback

Orson Charles

Wide Receiver

A. J. Green

Wide Receiver

Mohamed Sanu

Tight End

Jermaine Gresham

Left Tackle

Andrew Whitworth

Left Guard

Clint Boling

Center

Kyle Cook

Right Guard

Kevin Zeitler

Right Tackle

Andre Smith

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Carlos Dunlap

Nose Tackle

Domata Peko

Right Tackle

Geno Atkins

Right End

Michael Johnson

Sam LB

James Harrison

Mike LB

Rey Maualuga

Will LB

Vontaze Burfict

Left CB

Terrence Newman

Right CB

Leon Hall

Strong Safety

George Iloka

Free Safety

Reggie Nelson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Mike Nugent

Punter

Kevin Huber

K-Return

Brandon Tate

P-Return

Adam Jones

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

10-6

Division

1st Tie (2nd in tiebreaker)

 

Team

Cleveland Browns

               
Head Coach

Rob Chudzinski

O-Coord.

Norv Turner

D-Coord.

Ray Horton

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Brandon Weeden

Running Back

Trent Richardson

Fullback

Chris Ogbonnaya

Wide Receiver

Josh Gordon

Wide Receiver

Greg Little

Tight End

Jordan Cameron

Left Tackle

Joe Thomas

Left Guard

John Greco

Center

Alex Mack

Right Guard

Shaun Lauvao

Right Tackle

Mitchell Schwartz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Ahtyba Rubin

Nose Tackle

Phil Taylor

Right End

Desmond Bryant

Left OLB

Paul Kruger

Left ILB

Craig Robertson

Right ILB

D’Qwell Jackson

Right OLB

Jabaal Sheard

Left CB

Joe Haden

Right CB

Buster Skrine

Strong Safety

T. J. Ward

Free Safety

Tashaun Gipson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Shayne Graham

Punter

Spencer Lanning

K-Return

Johnson Bademosi

P-Return

Travis Benjamin

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

7-9

Division

4th

 

Team

Pittsburgh Steelers

               
Head Coach

Mike Tomlin

O-Coord.

Todd Haley

D-Coord.

Dick Lebeau

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger

Running Back

Isaac Redman

Fullback

Will Johnson

Wide Receiver

Emmanuel Sanders

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown

Tight End

Heath Miller

Left Tackle

Mike Adams

Left Guard

Ramon Foster

Center

Maurkice Pouncey

Right Guard

David DeCastro

Right Tackle

Marcus Gilbert

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Ziggy Hood

Nose Tackle

Steve McLendon

Right End

Brett Keisel

Left OLB

Lamarr Woodley

Left ILB

Larry Foote

Right ILB

Lawrence Timmons

Right OLB

Jason Worilds

Left CB

Cortez Allen

Right CB

Ike Taylor

Strong Safety

Troy Polamalu

Free Safety

Ryan Clark

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Shaun Suisham

Punter

Drew Butler

K-Return

Emmanuel Sanders

P-Return

Antonio Brown

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

8-8

Division

3rd

 

December 29, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 17–January 2, 2011

Did You Enjoy Your Christmas Gift?

Last week as our Christmas gift to you, we gave all our readers a free 13-point teaser parlay for you to play.  It was a winner!  Let’s take a look at it once again.

 

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

Thanks to an excellent QB draw by David Garrard, the Jaguars force overtime with Washington and lost on a field goal, which was okay for this parlay.  Oakland scored a late TD to prevent the Colts from threatening to ruin the parlay at the end of the day.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore were never in doubt.  Did you use this and win?

 

NFL Playoff Possibilities

NFC

East

Philadelphia

Clinched the division and will be the number three seed no matter what happens this week

 

New York Giants

Can get in as a Wildcard two ways

1. A win over Washington and Green Bay loses or ties

2. A tie with Washington and a both a Green Bay loss and Tampa Bay loss or tie

 

North

Chicago

Clinched the division and has earned a first round bye regardless of what happens this week

They can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win plus an Atlanta loss and a New Orleans loss or tie

 

Green Bay 

Can earn a Wildcard spot three different ways

1. A win over the Bears automatically gives them a Wildcard

2. If they lose to the Bears, they still qualify if both the Giants and Tampa Bay also lose

3. If they tie the Bears, they qualify as a Wildcard if both the Giants and Tampa Bay lose or tie

 

South

Atlanta

Has not clinched the division, but a win or tie over Carolina clinches it 

They also would clinch with a New Orleans loss or tie 

If they win the division, they will also clinch a first-round bye. 

Can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs if they win or tie or if Chicago and New Orleans both lose or tie

 

New Orleans

Has clinched a playoff spot 

If the Saints win and Atlanta loses, they would become division champions and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs

 

Tampa Bay

Can still earn a Wildcard spot with a win over the Saints plus a Green Bay loss or tie and a Giants loss or tie

 

West

The winner of the St. Louis—Seattle game will clinch the division and earn the number four seed 

If they tie, the Rams win the division

 

AFC

East

New England

Has already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs

 

New York Jets

Have clinched a Wildcard spot.

 

North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore have already clinched playoff spots

 

Pittsburgh

Can clinch the division and earn the other first-round bye three different ways

1. A win over Cleveland

2. A tie with Cleveland coupled with a loss or tie by Baltimore

3. A loss to Cleveland, coupled with a loss by Baltimore

 

Pittsburgh can be a #2 seed with a win, but they could fall all the way to #6 if they lose and both Baltimore and the Jets win.

 

Baltimore 

Can clinch the division and earn a first-round bye two ways

1. A win over Cincinnati coupled by a Pittsburgh loss or tie

2. A tie with Cincinnati and a Pittsburgh loss.

 

South

This division has not yet been decided 

The division winner will play in the opening week in the Wildcard Playoff round

 

Indianapolis

Clinches the division with a win or tie or a Jacksonville loss or tie 

 

The Colts would be the number three seed if they win and Kansas City loses and the number four seed if they win the division and Kansas City wins or ties

 

Jacksonville

Can clinch the division with a win over Houston and  Indianapolis loss to Tennessee 

The Jaguars would be the number four seed.

 

West

Kansas City

Has already clinched the division title and will play in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs 

If they win or tie or if Indianapolis loses or ties, the Chiefs would be the third seed 

If they lose and Indianapolis wins, the Chiefs will be the fourth seed

 

 Here is our projected Playoff bracket

NFC

#6 Green Bay at #3 Philadelphia

#5 New Orleans at #4 St. Louis

 

#2 Chicago hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

#1 Atlanta hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

AFC

#6 Pittsburgh at #3 Kansas City

#5 New York Jets at #4 Indianapolis

 

#2 Baltimore hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

#1 New England hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
Listed By PiRate Rating                  
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia  10 5 0 426 363 105.9 104.0 104.7
NY Giants 9 6 0 377 333 103.6 102.5 102.2
Dallas  5 10 0 380 423 97.9 98.4 96.6
Washington  6 9 0 288 360 94.3 97.0 97.4
 

 

                   
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay  9 6 0 378 237 111.2 109.2 106.8
Chicago  11 4 0 331 276 103.9 104.4 105.0
Detroit 5 10 0 342 356 98.4 100.5 100.1
Minnesota 6 9 0 268 328 97.4 98.1 99.4
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New Orleans 11 4 0 371 284 107.0 105.3 107.0
Atlanta 12 3 0 383 278 106.6 105.7 105.8
Tampa Bay 9 6 0 318 305 100.0 100.2 101.0
Carolina 2 13 0 186 377 90.2 88.4 88.3
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 10 0 267 339 96.2 94.5 96.7
St. Louis 7 8 0 283 312 95.6 94.9 99.0
Seattle 6 9 0 294 401 92.0 91.6 94.1
Arizona 5 10 0 282 396 89.0 91.4 91.0
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 13 2 0 480 306 115.3 113.2 112.0
NY Jets 10 5 0 329 297 102.7 102.9 103.9
Miami 7 8 0 266 295 99.1 99.2 98.2
Buffalo 4 11 0 276 387 95.8 96.3 95.8
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Baltimore 11 4 0 344 263 107.0 106.2 106.0
Pittsburgh 11 4 0 334 223 105.5 105.7 106.2
Cleveland 5 10 0 262 291 99.3 98.2 94.4
Cincinnati 4 11 0 315 382 97.9 97.9 95.3
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 9 6 0 412 368 102.2 102.5 103.1
Jacksonville 8 7 0 336 385 98.7 97.7 98.4
Houston 5 10 0 356 410 98.0 97.7 96.5
Tennessee 6 9 0 336 316 93.9 98.3 95.8
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 8 7 0 408 294 104.3 105.0 102.2
Kansas City 10 5 0 356 295 100.9 101.8 102.7
Oakland 7 8 0 379 361 98.9 99.0 100.5
Denver 4 11 0 316 438 91.7 92.3 94.1

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS          
Ratings Do Not Reflect Resting of Regulars by Teams That Have Nothing to Play for
Week 17: January 2, 2011          
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EST Wednesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
KANSAS CITY Oakland 6.0 6.8 6.2 3 1/2 43 ½
NEW ENGLAND Miami 19.2 17.0 16.8 3    43   
INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 11.3 7.2 10.3 9 1/2 48   
Jacksonville HOUSTON 2.7 2.0 3.9 2 1/2 49 ½
Pittsburgh CLEVELAND 2.2 3.5 7.8 6    37   
BALTIMORE Cincinnati 12.1 11.3 13.7 9 1/2 43   
DETROIT Minnesota 5.0 6.4 4.7 NL NL
WASHINGTON New York Giants 6.3 2.5 1.8 4    44 ½
GREEN BAY Chicago 10.3 7.8 4.8 NL NL
PHILADELPHIA Dallas 10.0 7.6 10.1 NL NL
NEW YORK JETS Buffalo 9.9 9.6 11.1 3    35 ½
ATLANTA Carolina 19.4 20.3 20.5 14 1/2 41   
NEW ORLEANS Tampa Bay 9.0 7.1 8.0 7 1/2 47   
SEATTLE

St. Louis 0.4 0.7 -0.9 3    41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Arizona 11.2 7.1 9.7 6    38 ½
San Diego DENVER 8.6 8.7 4.1 3 1/2 47   
             

 

Note to our subscription clients:  We will not issue an “official” pick for this week’s games because we do not like any of the possible parlays; too many teams have nothing to play for, but at the same time, this does not mean they will not use their regulars for four quarters.

 

 We will only issue three unofficial picks.  We advise you to take everything off the table unless you want to speculate with profits.

December 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship.

So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today.

2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread.

We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact.

For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection.

We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition.

We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy.

Here it is:

We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose.

There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.  

Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18.

Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog.

Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10.

The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay.

If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15.

Here is our Christmas gift to you.

1. 13-point teaser parlay

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

 

Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one.

Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright.

Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times.

We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia 10 4 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6
NY Giants 9 5 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5
Dallas 5 9 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8
Washington 5 9 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4
Bitmap

 
                   
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 6 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2
Chicago 10 4 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9
Detroit 4 10 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8
Minnesota 5 9 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 12 2 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2
New Orleans 10 4 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2
Tampa Bay 8 6 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3
Carolina 2 12 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 9 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0
St. Louis 6 8 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4
Seattle 6 8 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1
Arizona 4 10 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 12 2 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9
NY Jets 10 4 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8
Miami 7 7 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7
Buffalo 4 10 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Baltimore 10 4 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2
Pittsburgh 10 4 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5
Cleveland 5 9 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0
Cincinnati 3 11 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 8 6 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5
Jacksonville 8 6 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0
Houston 5 9 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2
Tennessee 6 8 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 8 6 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9
Oakland 7 7 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3
Kansas City 9 5 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6
Denver 3 11 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
       
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PITTSBURGH Carolina 18.7 20.7 20.4 13.5 37
Dallas ARIZONA 7.5 5.6 8.6 6.5 45
MIAMI Detroit 4.9 2.3 3.9 3.5 41.5
PHILADELPHIA Minnesota 16.1 13 15.4 NL NL
JACKSONVILLE Washington 8.2 5.1 8.6 7 45.5
ST. LOUIS San Francisco 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.5 39.5
TAMPA BAY Seattle 7.2 7.8 7.2 6 44
New England BUFFALO 12.5 10.6 13.2 7.5 44
CHICAGO New York Jets 4 4.1 4.1 2.5 36
Baltimore CLEVELAND 4.1 4.1 8.2 3.5 38.5
KANSAS CITY Tennessee 8 4.4 5.4 5 42
OAKLAND Indianapolis 1.7 0.5 2.8 -3 47
Houston DENVER 4.7 3.2 1 3 48.5
GREEN BAY
New York Giants 6 5.9 4.7 NL NL
San Diego CINCINNATI 8.6 7.4 8.6 7.5 44
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.8 6.3 6 2.5 48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 


Player Team G AYPA Int % PiRate
Tom Brady NE 14 6.8 0.89 114.2
Michael Vick PHI 11 6.6 1.52 107.6
Matt Cassel KC 13 5.8 1.31 105.0
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 10 6 1.49 104.5
Josh Freeman TB 14 5.7 1.42 103.4
Phillip Rivers SD 14 7 2.37 102.3
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8
Joe Flacco BAL 14 5.7 1.77 100.3
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5
Colt McCoy CLE 6 5.7 1.97 98.6
Matt Ryan ATL 14 5.2 1.76 97.6
Matt Schaub HOU 14 5.6 2.12 96.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7
Peyton Manning IND 14 5.6 2.46 93.7
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4
Mark Sanchez NYJ 14 4.6 2.55 87.3
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0
Jason Campbell OAK 11 5.1 3.05 85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12 4.9 2.97 85.3
Jon Kitna DAL 9 5.4 3.36 84.7
Drew Brees NO 14 5.2 3.33 83.8
Sam Bradford STL 14 4.1 2.71 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 8 4.5 2.97 83.1
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jay Cutler CHI 13 4.9 3.53 80.4
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0
Chad Henne MIA 13 4.7 3.48 79.7
Alex Smith SF 9 4.4 3.36 79.1
Carson Palmer CIN 14 4.4 3.46 78.2
Jimmie Clausen CAR 11 3.1 2.88 76.0
Eli Manning NYG 14 5 4.19 75.1
David Garrard JAX 13 4.6 3.96 74.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 13 4.3 3.86 74.1
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1
Brett Favre MIN 13 4 5.31 59.7
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7
           
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

December 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
NY Giants 9 4 0 329 250 107.1 105.4 105.6
Philadelphia  9 4 0 374 308 107.0 105.4 105.6
Dallas  4 9 0 321 366 99.0 99.8 99.9
Washington  5 8 0 238 310 93.6 95.8 92.6
 NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 5 0 306 189 108.6 106.7 105.0
Chicago 9 4 0 253 228 101.6 101.7 103.2
Minnesota 5 8 0 230 274 97.3 98.4 97.5
Detroit 3 10 0 285 309 96.5 98.1 94.8
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 11 2 0 335 243 106.9 106.1 107.5
New Orleans 10 3 0 330 240 106.3 105.0 106.6
Tampa Bay 8 5 0 260 267 99.4 99.9 101.2
Carolina 1 12 0 164 338 90.3 88.9 89.4
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 8 0 243 280 98.2 97.1 99.8
St. Louis 6 7 0 245 268 96.5 95.7 98.0
Seattle 6 7 0 261 329 94.2 93.7 96.5
Arizona 4 9 0 243 351 88.4 91.3 92.5
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 11 2 0 415 276 113.1 111.8 111.1
NY Jets 9 4 0 273 242 101.6 101.1 102.5
Miami 7 6 0 225 244 101.2 101.4 101.9
Buffalo 3 10 0 256 339 97.3 97.1 96.0
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 10 3 0 290 198 106.4 106.2 107.4
Baltimore 9 4 0 294 229 106.3 104.8 105.4
Cleveland 5 8 0 235 252 99.9 99.1 96.9
Cincinnati 2 11 0 262 345 95.0 95.1 93.9
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 7 6 0 347 318 100.7 101.3 101.7
Houston 5 8 0 316 355 100.2 100.0 99.0
Jacksonville 8 5 0 295 331 99.6 99.8 101.8
Tennessee 5 8 0 291 265 93.9 97.8 93.7
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 7 6 0 354 253 105.3 105.9 104.2
Oakland 6 7 0 314 307 99.2 99.1 99.8
Kansas City 8 5 0 295 268 98.1 98.6 99.5
Denver 3 10 0 269 376 91.7 92.3 89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads  
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
               
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday            
               
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals  
SAN DIEGO San Francisco 11.1 12.8 8.4 8 1/2 44 1/2  
ST. LOUIS Kansas City 1.4 0.1 2.5 NL NL  
Houston TENNESSEE 3.3 -0.8 2.3 -1 1/2 47     
INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville 4.1 4.5 2.9 5    48 1/2  
CAROLINA Arizona 4.9 0.6 -0.1 2 1/2 37 1/2  
Cleveland CINCINNATI 1.9 1.0 3.0 -2    40     
MIAMI Buffalo 5.9 6.3 7.9 5 1/2 41     
NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 3.1 3.0 3.0 2 1/2 46     
DALLAS Washington 8.4 7.0 10.3 6    45     
TAMPA BAY Detroit 4.9 3.8 8.4 6    43     
BALTIMORE New Orleans 3.0 2.8 1.8 2    43 1/2  
Atlanta SEATTLE 8.7 8.4 7.0 6    45     
PITTSBURGH New York Jets 8.8 9.1 8.9 6    35 1/2  
OAKLAND   Denver 10.5 9.8 13.1 6 1/2 44     
NEW ENGLAND Green Bay 7.5 8.1 9.1 NL NL  
Chicago MINNESOTA 1.3 0.3 2.7 NL NL  
               
PiRate Passer # 

Player

Team G AYPA Int% PiRate #    
Tom Brady NE 13 6.9 0.94 114.4    
Michael Vick PHI 10 6.8 1.36 110.1    
Matt Cassel KC 12 5.9 1.13 107.1    
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 9 6.2 1.72 103.6    
Josh Freeman TB 13 5.6 1.54 101.8    
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8    
Phillip Rivers SD 13 6.8 2.51 100.0    
Joe Flacco BAL 13 5.7 1.86 99.6    
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5    
Matt Ryan ATL 13 5.3 1.68 98.9    
Matt Schaub HOU 13 5.8 2.15 97.6    
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7    
Troy Smith SF 5 5.6 2.38 94.4    
Colt McCoy CLE 5 5.4 2.36 93.5    
Peyton Manning IND 13 5.6 2.63 92.2    
Jason Campbell OAK 10 5 2.54 89.6    
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4    
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0    
Mark Sanchez NYJ 13 4.6 2.72 85.8    
Sam Bradford STL 13 4.3 2.53 85.8    
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 11 4.8 2.91 85.3    
Drew Brees NO 13 5.3 3.43 83.5    
Kerry Collins TEN 7 4.3 2.81 83.4    
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9    
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1    
Jay Cutler CHI 12 4.9 3.49 80.7    
Alex Smith SF 8 4.6 3.35 80.3    
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0    
Jon Kitna DAL 8 5.1 3.83 78.8    
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12 4.6 3.55 78.6    
Chad Henne MIA 12 4.7 3.63 78.4    
Carson Palmer CIN 13 4.2 3.62 75.6    
Eli Manning NYG 13 4.9 4.34 73.3    
David Garrard JAX 12 4.4 4.14 72.2    
Jimmie Clausen CAR 10 2.8 3.13 72.2    
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4    
Brett Favre MIN 12 4.1 5.13 61.8    
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1    
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7    
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8    
   
   
                           

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

December 7, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 14–December 9-13, 2010

PiRate Picks Against The Spread For Last Week

We had to wait a day to post our results of last week’s picks against the spread because we wanted to go with the Patriots on Monday Night Football.  Thanks to that game completing a successful parlay, our picks finished 2-1 for the week.

 

Before we review our picks, let us take this brief moment to send an advanced warning to our subscribers.  We will only make one selection this week, but this is not to infer that we consider it an iron-clad lock of the year.  With the college season over except for the Army-Navy game (which we will lay off), it leaves just NFL games until the start of the bowls.  We have five or six games we like, but we can only make one, 13-point teaser parlay.  Consider this game like all others we give to you—on equal footing. 

 

Okay, let us now review our three selections from last week.

 

1. 13-point Teaser Parlay

Minnesota +7 ½ vs. Buffalo, Cleveland +18 ½ vs. Miami, Tennessee +9 ½ vs. Jacksonville, and Denver +20 ½ vs. Kansas City

Loss

The Tennessee Titans, and their lack of offense, did us in on this parlay.  We liked all four underdogs covering against these big numbers, but the Titans lost by 11 after extending their streak of not scoring an offensive touchdown for almost 3 ½ games.

 

2. 13-point Teaser Parlay

New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Washington, Chicago +8 vs. Detroit, Green Bay +4 ½ vs. San Francisco, New Orleans +6 ½ vs. Cincinnati

WON

This is more of the same.  We went with four favorites by small amounts and moved the spread so that they were now all underdogs.

 

3. 13-point Teaser Parlay

Oakland +26 vs. San Diego, St. Louis +10 vs. Arizona, Baltimore +16 vs. Pittsburgh, and New England +9 ½ vs. New York Jets

WON

We figured San Diego could not win by more than three touchdowns, so we took the Raiders, not expecting them to pull off the upset.  We felt as if Arizona would have a tough time beating Carolina or Detroit by 10, so it was safe taking the Rams at that number.  We believed the Steelers would score less than 17 points, so we loved the Ravens in this pick.  And, we held on until Monday night so we could take the Patriots at home as almost double-digit ‘dogs. 

 

 

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia  8 4 0 344 281 106.9 104.9 105.6
NY Giants 8 4 0 308 247 105.9 103.7 105.2
Dallas  4 8 0 294 336 99.1 99.5 100.0
Washington 5 7 0 222 293 93.7 96.5 95.3
  

NFC North

Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 4 0 303 182 110.2 108.5 106.4
Chicago 9 3 0 246 192 103.4 104.1 104.2
Minnesota 5 7 0 227 253 98.5 99.4 99.3
Detroit 2 10 0 278 306 94.9 97.0 92.7
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 10 2 0 304 233 106.1 105.1 106.7
New Orleans 9 3 0 299 227 105.6 103.3 105.7
Tampa Bay 7 5 0 243 251 99.3 100.1 101.4
Carolina 1 11 0 154 307 91.1 88.6 89.0
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
St. Louis 6 6 0 232 237 97.2 97.2 97.4
San Francisco 4 8 0 203 259 96.9 95.3 95.1
Seattle 6 6 0 240 289 95.5 95.4 96.7
Arizona 3 9 0 200 338 86.0 89.1 89.9
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 10 2 0 379 269 111.3 108.6 110.9
NY Jets 9 3 0 267 232 102.8 102.7 104.4
Miami 6 6 0 215 238 100.0 100.3 99.1
Buffalo 2 10 0 243 333 96.3 96.0 95.1
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 9 3 0 267 191 106.2 105.6 107.4
Baltimore 8 4 0 260 201 106.2 104.8 106.1
Cleveland 5 7 0 229 239 100.9 99.7 101.6
Cincinnati 2 10 0 255 322 95.2 95.6 92.4
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 6 6 0 317 290 100.6 101.3 100.1
Houston 5 7 0 288 321 100.3 99.3 99.0
Jacksonville 7 5 0 257 300 99.3 99.4 101.2
Tennessee 5 7 0 263 235 94.0 99.1 96.5
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 6 6 0 323 353 103.7 103.5 101.1
Kansas City 8 4 0 295 237 99.7 101.8 101.2
Oakland 6 6 0 283 269 99.5 99.1 100.0
Denver 3 9 0 256 333 94.1 95.1 93.3
                     

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 14: December 9-13, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Indianapolis TENNESSEE 3.6 -0.8 -0.6 3    46 1/2
JACKSONVILLE Oakland 2.8 3.3 4.2 4 1/2 43   
PITTSBURGH Cincinnati 15.0 14.0 19.0 9    39 1/2
New England CHICAGO 4.9 1.5 3.7 3    41   
Cleveland BUFFALO 2.6 1.7 4.5 -1 1/2 40   
New York Giants MINNESOTA 4.4 1.3 2.9 2 1/2 44   
Green Bay DETROIT 11.3 7.5 9.7 6 1/2 47 1/2
Atlanta CAROLINA 12.0 13.5 14.7 7 1/2 42   
Tampa Bay WASHINGTON 2.6 0.6 3.1 2    41   
NEW ORLEANS St. Louis 11.4 9.1 11.3 9    47   
SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 5.4 3.9 2.4 4 1/2 41   
NEW YORK JETS Miami 6.8 6.4 9.3 5 1/2 41   
Denver ARIZONA 5.1 3.0 0.4 4    43    
SAN DIEGO  

 

Kansas City

8.0 5.7 3.9 7    46 1/2
Philadelphia DALLAS 4.8 2.4 2.6 3 1/2 50 1/2
Baltimore HOUSTON 2.9 2.5 4.1 3    45 1/2

 

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

NFC East

When the New York Giants bring their A-game, they are the best team in the NFC.  When they don’t, they are not playoff worthy.

 

The Eagles have continued to play at an even keel for most of the season.  We believe Philadelphia will edge the Giants for the Division title, while the Giants have to sweat it out in week 17 to see if they qualify for a Wildcard berth. 

 

Division Winner: Philadelphia

Wildcard: None

 

NFC North

The Chicago Bears have come on strong as the weather turned cold.  They have a tough closing schedule, and we believe they will fall a couple of times.

 

Green Bay has been the most consistent NFC team from week one to week 13.  We believe the Packers will catch and pass the Bears in the final five games.

 

Minnesota has virtually no chance of getting into the playoffs, even if they run the table to finish 9-7.  However, they could be a big spoiler.

 

Division Winner: Green Bay

Wildcard: Chicago

 

NFC South

Atlanta is in the cat-bird seat.  The Falcons host New Orleans, and they own a three-point overtime win over the Saints at the Superdome.  They have two games remaining with Carolina and a visit to Seattle.  They could run the table, but at the worst, they should finish 13-3 and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

 

The New Orleans offense is beginning to pick up the pace.  The Saints have scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games.  Their final three games are tough, having to play at Baltimore, at Atlanta, and hosting Tampa Bay.  We cannot see them running the table.

 

Tampa Bay is still alive, but we believe the Buccaneers will finish no better than 9-7.  11-5 could be the necessary record to qualify as a wildcard this year.

 

Division Winner: Atlanta

Wildcard: New Orleans

 

NFC West

8-8 could very well be all that is needed to win this division.  On the other hand, we could see two teams finishing 8-8.  St. Louis and Seattle remained tied at 6-6.  The Seahawks have a tougher final four games.  They host Atlanta and St. Louis, and they play at San Francisco and Tampa Bay.  They may be eliminated by the time the Rams come to Seattle in the final week.

 

Division Winner: St. Louis

Wildcard: None

 

AFC East

New England probably secured home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with their six-touchdown win over the Jets last night.  The Patriots are ripe for an upset loss this weekend at Chicago, but we believe they have a better than 50% chance of winning.  They host the Packers the following week, and then close at Buffalo and at home against Miami.  They could run the table, but they will win at least 13 games.

 

The Jets have had trouble scoring against the playoff caliber defenses.  They still must play at Pittsburgh and at Chicago, and we believe they could lose both games.  Home games with Buffalo and Miami should allow the Jets to hang on for a playoff spot.

 

Division Winner: New England

Wildcard: New York Jets

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh holds a one game lead over Baltimore.  Both teams’ defenses are getting ready for that final drive to the finish.  Baltimore has given up 36 points in their last three games, while Pittsburgh has yielded just 29.  Both teams could run the table, but we believe Cleveland could upset Pittsburgh in a meaningless finale for the Steelers, while Baltimore could meet the same fate the week before.

 

Division Winner: Pittsburgh

Wildcard: Baltimore

 

AFC South

This division fell to pieces in a hurry.  It is now a little weaker than the AFC West.  Houston and Tennessee are headed to losing records, so it leaves Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the league crown.  Jacksonville leads by a game, but the two teams must square off again at Indy in two weeks.  This week’s contests could decide whether that game will be for all the marbles.  The Colts play at Tennessee Thursday night, while Jacksonville hosts Oakland.  Both should win those games, so a Colt win the following week could produce a tie at 8-6.  The last two games favor the Jaguars, as they host Washington and close at Houston.  Indianapolis must play at Oakland, and host Tennessee.

 

Division Winner: Jacksonville

Wildcard: None

 

AFC West

This just may be the most interesting race of all.  Kansas City leads Oakland and San Diego by two games.  The Chiefs must play at San Diego this week and then follow that up with a trip across the state to St. Louis.  It would not surprise us if they were 8-6 after week 15.  They close with Tennessee and Oakland at home.

 

San Diego’s season is done if they lost to Kansas City this week.  If they get past the Chiefs, they have a great chance to win out with games against San Francisco at home and Cincinnati and Denver on the road.  They have to run the table because they are currently 1-3 in the division and have already been swept by Oakland.

 

Oakland is still in this race at 6-6.  They swept the Chargers and hold a win over Kansas City.  Even if they lose at Jacksonville this week, wins over Denver and Indianapolis at home could make the finale at Kansas City for all the marbles.

 

Denver, with a new coach, could be a big spoiler.  The Broncos get both San Diego and Oakland.  They did split with Kansas City.

 

Division Winner: Kansas City

Wildcard: None

 

Projected Playoff Seedings

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. St. Louis

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Kansas City

4. Jacksonville

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore

 

Projected Playoffs

Wildcard Round

Chicago over Philadelphia

New Orleans over St. Louis

Baltimore over Kansas City

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Round

Atlanta over Chicago

Green Bay over New Orleans

New England over Baltimore

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over Atlanta

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over New England

 

 

November 30, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                       
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 4 0 310 257 106.6 105.7 105.8 2
NY Giants 7 4 0 277 240 103.3 102.5 103.3 2
Dallas 3 8 0 256 301 96.8 98.9 99.5 2
Washington
5 6 0 215 262 96.3 97.1 96.1 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Green Bay 7 4 0 269 166 109.9 109.9 106.8 3
Chicago 8 3 0 222 172 103.3 103.4 104.7 4
Minnesota 4 7 0 189 239 97.1 99.0 99.6 3
Detroit 2 9 0 258 282 95.0 96.7 93.9 4
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Atlanta 9 2 0 276 209 106.3 105.3 106.9 4
New Orleans 8 3 0 265 197 105.8 104.5 106.6 2
Tampa Bay 7 4 0 219 223 99.1 99.0 100.6 2
Carolina 1 10 0 140 276 92.7 90.0 90.3 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Francisco 4 7 0 187 225 97.2 95.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 5 6 0 213 231 95.2 94.5 97.1 4
Seattle 5 6 0 209 275 93.9 92.5 95.3 3
Arizona 3 8 0 194 319 88.0 88.3 89.7 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
New England 9 2 0 334 266 107.8 107.0 107.5 3
NY Jets 9 2 0 264 187 106.3 105.5 106.3 2
Miami 6 5 0 205 225 102.3 101.3 102.3 3
Buffalo 2 9 0 229 295 97.7 97.1 97.0 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Baltimore 8 3 0 250 188 107.4 105.9 106.1 4
Pittsburgh 8 3 0 254 181 105.0 105.7 104.9 2
Cleveland 4 7 0 216 229 98.6 99.5 98.2 4
Cincinnati 2 9 0 225 288 95.0 95.5 91.3 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Indianapolis 6 5 0 282 252 102.9 102.9 102.2 4
Houston 5 6 0 264 287 100.6 100.3 99.4 2
Tennessee 5 6 0 257 218 96.7 102.1 96.5 4
Jacksonville 6 5 0 240 294 96.6 96.5 98.4 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Diego 6 5 0 310 225 106.9 106.2 104.2 4
Kansas City 7 4 0 285 231 100.2 100.2 101.1 4
Oakland 5 6 0 255 256 96.3 96.4 97.7 2
Denver 3 8 0 250 323 93.6 95.2 92.2 2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PHILADELPHIA Houston 8.0 7.4 8.4 8 1/2 51 1/2
MINNESOTA Buffalo 2.4 4.9 5.6 6    44 1/2
MIAMI Cleveland 6.7 4.8 7.1 4 1/2 42 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 4.1 9.6 2.1 NL NL
KANSAS CITY Denver 10.6 9.0 12.9 8 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Washington 9.0 7.4 9.2 7    43   
Chicago DETROIT 4.3 2.7 6.8 3 1/2 44 1/2
GREEN BAY San Francisco 15.7 17.5 11.5 9 1/2 42   
New Orleans CINCINNATI 7.8 6.0 12.3 6 1/2 46 1/2
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 5.2 4.3 4.3 3    44 1/2
SAN DIEGO Oakland 14.6 13.8 10.5 12 1/2 45 1/2
SEATTLE Carolina 4.2 5.5 8.0 6    39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Dallas 10.1 8.0 6.7 5 1/2 47 1/2
St. Louis  

ARIZONA
3.2 2.2 3.4 3    43   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.4 4.2 5.2 3    40   
NEW ENGLAND New York Jets 4.5 4.5 4.2 3 1/2 46   

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int %  #
Michael Vick Phi 6.8 0.43 118.3
Tom Brady NE 6.5 1.12 110.5
Kyle Orton Den 6.3 1.40 107.0
Matt Cassel KC 6.0 1.24 106.7
Matt Ryan Atl 5.6 1.23 104.5
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6.4 1.82 103.8
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.39 102.1
Josh Freeman TB 5.6 1.53 101.9
Vince Young Ten 6.2 1.92 101.8
Matt Shaub Hou 5.8 1.91 99.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 6.2 2.44 97.3
Seneca Wallace Cle 5.4 2.00 96.6
Joe Flacco Bal 5.7 2.19 96.6
Peyton Manning Ind 5.6 2.26 95.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.20 93.8
Colt McCoy Cle 5.4 2.36 93.5
Sam Bradford Stl 4.5 2.18 90.0
Matt Hasselebeck Sea 4.9 2.56 88.9
Kevin Kolb Phi 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo Dal 5.7 3.29 87.0
Drew Brees NO 5.4 3.29 85.3
Chad Henne Mia 5.3 3.27 84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 4.8 3.03 84.2
Kerry Collins Ten 4.2 2.80 82.8
Jay Cutler Chi 5.0 3.42 81.9
Donovan McNabb Was 4.8 3.31 81.8
Derek Anderson Ari 4.2 2.93 81.7
Shaun Hill Det 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jason Campbell Oak 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jon Kitna Dal 5.2 4.00 77.9
Carson Palmer Cin 4.3 3.47 77.5
Eli Manning NYG 5.2 4.26 75.7
Jimmy Clausen Car 3.1 3.01 74.9
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
David Garrard Jax 4.3 4.42 69.2
Bruce Gradkowski Oak 4.0 4.43 67.4
Brett Favre Min 4.2 4.86 64.8
Matt Moore Car 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

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