The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 5, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 5–October 10-11, 2010

Four weeks into the NFL season gives us enough time to begin to make assumptions.  There just may not be a great team in the league this year.  The Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team left, and it is a good bet they will not be so after this week.

We have a lot of mediocre teams and a handful of good but not great teams.  Scoring is down this year.  That gives the odds makers quite a dilemma.  The underdog is covering more than ever this year.  The lines will be shorter, and this will create many instances where sweetheart teaser plays become more advantageous.

If a team that should be a five-point favorite all of a sudden becomes a two and a half-point favorite, then playing a 10-point teaser to make them a seven and a half-point underdog becomes truly sweet and playing a 13-point teaser to make them a 10 ½-point underdog becomes money in the bank.

The PiRates are having a great time playing these NFL sweetheart teasers so far this year.  In fact, we may have to consider not playing any college games and picking just NFL games, at least as long as this hot streak continues.

We have also fattened up on money line parlays that take advantage of the fact that favorites are still winning but not covering.  The lower the regular spread, the lower the money line odds. 

                                                PiRate QB Passer Ratings                                       

 

Player Team AYPA INT% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5
Peyton Manning IND 7.4 0.58 120.3
Mark Sanchez NYJ 6.1 0.00 118.2
Tony Romo DAL 6.6 1.56 107.2
Kyle Orton DEN 6.6 1.71 105.9
Donovan McNabb WAS 6.5 1.65 105.9
Tom Brady NE 6.3 1.64 104.9
Drew Brees NO 6.2 1.79 103.0
Phillip Rivers SD 7.3 2.84 99.9
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 1.82 98.2
Matt Ryan ATL 5.1 2.01 94.8
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.6 2.86 90.2
Jay Cutler CHI 5.7 2.94 90.0
Josh Freeman TB 4.8 2.41 89.7
Matt Shcaub HOU 5.6 3.08 88.3
Carson Palmer CIN 4.4 2.46 87.0
Chad Henne MIA 5.2 3.03 86.5
Vince Young TEN 4.8 2.82 86.1
Kevin Kolb PHI 3.3 2.22 82.9
Dennis Dixon PIT 4.5 3.13 81.7
Matt Cassel KC 4.4 3.90 74.4
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.5 4.21 72.1
Eli Manning NYG 4.8 4.55 70.9
Sam Bradford STL 3.6 3.80 70.7
Joe Flacco BAL 3.8 4.63 64.5
Jimmy Clausen CAR 3.0 4.17 64.1
Shaun Hill DET 3.7 4.67 63.6
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 4.76 62.8
Alex Smith SF 3.5 4.64 62.8
Jason Campbell OAK 2.2 3.85 62.5
Derek Anderson ARI 2.8 4.46 60.4
Trent Edwards BUF 1.5 3.85 58.6
Jake Delhomme CLE 3.7 5.41 57.2
David Garrard JAX 3.0 5.21 55.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 5.2 7.14 50.3
Brett Favre MIN 2.8 6.19 45.2
Charlie Batch PIT 3.8 7.14 42.4
Matt Moore CAR 1.2 8.16 18.9
 PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
             
             
 

 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas  104.2 102.2 102.3 1-2-0 18.0 17.7
Philadelphia  102.0 100.5 100.3 2-2-0 23.8 19.8
New York Giants 100.7 99.0 99.1 2-2-0 18.0 22.0
Washington  98.1 99.4 97.5 2-2-0 18.3 19.8
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay  104.2 104.3 104.5 3-1-0 26.5 18.3
Minnesota  103.3 101.7 102.0 1-2-0 14.3 12.7
Chicago 100.9 99.7 101.1 3-1-0 17.3 17.0
Detroit 94.3 94.0 95.7 0-4-0 20.5 26.5
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 105.7 104.5 105.4 3-1-0 23.3 15.0
New Orleans 103.3 103.0 103.4 3-1-0 19.8 18.0
Carolina 97.9 94.9 95.9 0-4-0 11.5 21.8
Tampa Bay 94.3 97.6 97.6 2-1-0 16.7 19.7
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 97.2 94.6 92.8 0-4-0 13.0 25.8
Seattle 94.5 95.7 95.4 2-2-0 18.8 19.3
St. Louis 94.0 96.5 97.3 2-2-0 19.3 13.0
Arizona 92.5 94.3 94.2 2-2-0 14.5 29.5
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 111.1 108.2 109.0 3-1-0 26.5 15.3
New England 106.6 106.1 106.5 3-1-0 32.8 24.0
Miami 100.1 98.6 101.3 2-2-0 16.5 23.0
Buffalo 92.6 93.7 93.4 0-4-0 15.3 31.3
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.1 105.6 106.3 3-1-0 15.3 13.8
Pittsburgh 103.7 107.0 105.5 3-1-0 21.5 12.5
Cincinnati 101.6 100.8 100.9 2-2-0 19.8 19.5
Cleveland 97.4 97.3 96.3 1-3-0 17.0 19.3
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.9 104.4 103.4 2-2-0 29.3 23.0
Houston 101.9 101.5 103.5 3-1-0 27.0 25.5
Tennessee 99.4 102.3 99.5 2-2-0 24.5 17.0
Jacksonville 94.1 95.0 95.2 2-2-0 17.8 27.8
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.8 103.5 103.0 2-2-0 28.3 17.8
Kansas City 100.5 101.8 100.9 3-0-0 22.7 10.3
Denver 97.0 99.1 97.8 2-2-0 21.8 21.3
Oakland 92.4 93.0 92.7 1-3-0 19.0 26.8

 

This Week’s Games                                                                

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site                                                       

                                                                       

Week 5: October 10-11, 2010                                                            

Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday                                                                

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 5: October 10-11, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
BALTIMORE Denver 12.1 9.5 11.5 7    38 1/2
BUFFALO Jacksonville 1.5 1.7 1.2 Pk 41   
INDIANAPOLIS Kansas City 7.4 5.6 5.5 8    44 1/2
 

DETROIT
St. Louis 3.3 0.5 1.4 3    42 1/2
Atlanta CLEVELAND 5.3 4.2 6.1 3    40 1/2
CINCINNATI Tampa Bay 9.3 5.2 5.3 6 1/2 38   
Chicago CAROLINA 0.0 1.8 2.2 2 1/2 35 1/2
Green Bay WASHINGTON 3.1 1.9 4.0 2 1/2 44   
HOUSTON New York Giants 3.2 4.5 6.4 3    47 1/2
New Orleans ARIZONA 8.8 6.7 7.2 6 1/2 45 1/2
San Diego OAKLAND 9.4 8.5 8.3 6    45   
DALLAS Tennessee 7.8 2.9 5.8 6 1/2 41 1/2
Philadelphia SAN FRANCISCO 0.8 1.9 3.5 -3    38   
NEW YORK JETS Minnesota 9.8 8.5 9.0 4    38 1/2

September 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 4–October 3-4, 2010

Week 3 PiRate Passer Ratings *

Player Team AYPA Int % PiRate #
Peyton Manning IND  7.7 0.00 127.1
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 6.1 0.00 118.2
Donovan McNabb WAS 7.0 0.98 114.6
Kyle Orton DEN 7.4 1.60 111.4
Matt Ryan ATL 5.7 0.94 107.6
Tony Romo DAL 6.6 1.56 107.2
Chad Henne MIA 5.8 1.08 107.0
Jay Cutler CHI 7.5 2.20 106.7
Drew Brees NO 6.2 1.79 103.0
Tom Brady NE 6.5 2.04 102.4
 

Seneca Wallace

CLE 5.4 1.82 98.2
Phillip Rivers SD 6.7 3.31 92.4
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.6 2.86 90.2
Josh Freeman TB 4.8 2.41 89.7
Carson Palmer CIN 4.4 2.46 87.0
Dennis Dixon PIT 4.5 3.13 81.7
Brad Gradkowski OAK 5.1 3.57 81.1
 

Matt Schaub

HOU 5.4 3.96 79.4
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.06 77.8
Matt Cassel KC 4.4 3.90 74.4
Kerry Collins TEN 3.7 4.00 69.5
Alex Smith SF 3.7 4.20 67.7
Vince Young TEN 4.3 4.65 67.1
Joe Flacco BAL 3.8 4.63 64.5
Jimmy Clausen CAR 3.0 4.17 64.1
Sam Bradford STL 3.1 4.27 63.8
Shaun Hill DET 3.7 4.67 63.6
Jason Campbell OAK 2.2 3.85 62.5
 

Trent Edwards

BUF 1.5 3.85 58.6
Eli Manning NYG 4.5 5.88 57.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 3.7 5.41 57.2
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.9 5.56 57.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 5.2 7.14 50.3
Brett Favre MIN 2.8 6.19 45.2
Charlie Batch PIT 3.8 7.14 42.4
 

David Garrard

JAX 1.8 6.76 34.6
Matt Moore CAR 1.2 8.16 18.9

 

* PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

Where AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (passing yards minus yards after catch)

AYPA is available at advancednflstats.com

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             
 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas  104.2 102.4 103.6 1-2-0 18.0 17.7
Philadelphia  103.3 103.1 103.6 2-1-0 27.7 20.7
New York Giants 98.8 94.8 97.4 1-2-0 18.3 28.3
Washington 96.8 99.4 95.6 1-2-0 18.7 22.3
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.8 106.6 107.8 2-1-0 26.0 15.7
Minnesota 103.3 102.5 102.3 1-2-0 14.3 12.7
Chicago 102.3 102.0 104.4 3-0-0 22.0 17.0
Detroit 92.7 95.1 92.7 0-3-0 18.7 26.0
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 106.3 108.9 107.7 2-1-0 25.7 15.3
New Orleans 104.5 104.8 106.0 2-1-0 21.0 19.3
Carolina 96.7 90.7 91.4 0-3-0 10.7 23.7
Tampa Bay 94.3 94.8 97.1 2-1-0 16.7 19.7
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 96.4 93.2 95.4 0-3-0 10.3 29.0
Arizona 95.6 97.5 97.9 2-1-0 16.0 25.7
Seattle 95.5 99.3 100.1 2-1-0 24.0 19.0
St. Louis 92.5 96.2 94.7 1-2-0 19.0 16.3
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 108.6 104.4 106.7 2-1-0 22.7 15.7
New England 104.6 100.4 104.5 2-1-0 30.0 27.3
Miami 102.1 101.6 101.2 2-1-0 17.3 17.0
Buffalo 95.6 94.0 91.2 0-3-0 15.7 29.0
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 104.8 101.9 103.7 2-1-0 14.7 13.7
Pittsburgh 104.5 107.7 107.7 3-0-0 24.0 11.0
Cincinnati 102.3 98.1 102.4 2-1-0 19.7 18.3
Cleveland 96.7 95.7 94.8 0-3-0 15.0 19.0
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 105.9 109.7 107.8 2-1-0 29.7 20.3
Houston 101.7 103.8 103.4 2-1-0 25.7 26.0
Tennessee 101.1 102.6 102.5 2-1-0 26.0 14.0
Jacksonville 93.1 93.4 91.2 1-2-0 13.3 27.7
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 101.2 101.6 99.9 1-2-0 24.0 20.3
Kansas City 100.5 100.4 99.5 3-0-0 22.7 10.3
Denver 95.8 100.6 96.8 1-2-0 20.3 21.7
Oakland 92.6 92.3 89.1 1-2-0 17.3 25.3

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 4: October 3-4, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
TENNESSEE Denver 8.3 5.0 8.7 6 1/2 41 1/2
PITTSBURGH Baltimore 2.7 8.8 7.0 1 1/2 34 1/2
Cincinnati CLEVELAND 3.6 0.4 5.6 3    37 1/2
GREEN BAY Detroit 16.1 14.5 18.1 14 1/2 45 1/2
NEW ORLEANS Carolina 10.8 17.1 17.6 13    44   
ATLANTA San Francisco 12.9 18.7 15.3 7    42   
Seattle ST. LOUIS 1.0 1.1 3.4 Pk 38 1/2
New York Jets BUFFALO 10.0 7.4 12.5 5    37   
Indianapolis JACKSONVILLE 9.8 13.3 13.6 7 1/2 46 1/2
Houston OAKLAND 7.1 9.5 12.3 3    43 1/2
SAN DIEGO Arizona 7.6 6.1 4.0 8    46   
PHILADELPHIA Washington 9.5 6.7 11.0 6    42 1/2
Chicago NEW YORK GIANTS 0.5 4.2 4.0 -4    44   
New England MIAMI 0.5 -3.2 1.3 Pk 45 1/2

September 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 2–September 19-20, 2010

18.3!  That is the average number of points scored per team in the opening week of the 2010 NFL season.  That is a little more than a field goal less per team compared to last year.  Is this a sign that scoring is about to become harder in the league, or is it more of a case of so many closely-matched contests in week one?  We will have to wait a couple of weeks before we can begin to make an assumption.

Week two finds a handful of interesting games on the slate.  The Jets hook up with the Pats, and it is almost a must-win game for Coach Rex Ryan and his crew.  After losing Monday night at home to Baltimore, a loss would to New England would give Team Belichick a two-game edge in the AFC East.

Indianapolis hosts the Giants in a battle of Manning vs. Manning.  The Colts could not stop the Houston running game, and the Texans are not a rushing behemoth.  If Eli and company get the best of Peyton and company, the Colts could be two games behind the rest of the division.

Kansas City visits Cleveland, and if the Chiefs can pull off the road win over a weak Browns’ team, they will become a legitimate threat in the AFC West.  The Chiefs get Cleveland and Buffalo as part of finishing fourth in the division last year, while the Chargers must play New England and Cincinnati. 

Dallas hosts Chicago, and the Cowboys must rebound or else they could find themselves in a hole they cannot crawl out of.  Jerry Jones might even begin to consider his options if the Cowboys lay another egg offensively this week.  The mental anguish of having the winning touchdown called back could do to Dallas what Virginia Tech’s loss to Boise State did to the Hokies.  Additionally, Chicago benefitted from a final play penalty to beat Detroit, and the Bears could get a positive bounce from that event.

The Saints and Vikings got an extra three days to prepare for their second games.  Minnesota hosts Miami.  The Dolphins struggled to beat the hapless Bills, and the Vikes are much better at home than they are on the road.  After the opening touchdown drive, Minnesota’s defense shut down Drew Brees.

The Saints fly into a hornet’s nest in San Francisco.  Mike Singletary will have the 49ers hopping mad after the embarrassing loss at Seattle.

                Week One PiRate Passer Ratings *                                

Player Team PiRate #
David Garrard JAX 126.0
VinceYoung TEN 125.4
Tom Brady N-E 125.4
Peyton Manning IND 123.8
Phil Rivers S-D 122.1
Drew Brees N-O 118.7
Derek Anderson ARI 118.7
Michael Vick PHI 118.2
Tony Romo DAL 116.5
Donovan McNabb WAS 111.4
Chad Henne MIA 108.6
Matthew Stafford DET 108.1
Jay Cutler CHI 104.2
Trent Edwards BUF 101.4
Matt Cassel K-C 99.1
Carson Palmer CIN 98.9
Mark Sanchez NYJ 98.6
Kyle Orton DEN 93.2
Matt Ryan ATL 87.5
Joe Flacco BAL 87.2
Dennis Dixon PIT 82.1
Josh Freeman T-B 75.0
Brett Favre MIN 74.9
Jason Campbell OAK 74.8
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 73.7
Alex Smith S-F 59.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 57.2
Matt Schaub HOU 47.9
Shaun Hill DET 47.2
Sam Bradford STL 46.1
Aaron Rodgers G-B 40.1
Eli Manning NYG 18.4
Matt Moore CAR 6.2

 

* PiRate Passer Rating: [((7 x AYPA) – (10 x Int. %)) + 105] x 0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (eliminates Yards After the Catch)

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             
Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 103.6 102.7 101.1 0-1-0 7 13
New York Giants 101.5 102.5 101.9 1-0-0 31 18
Philadelphia 101.0 100.8 99.0 0-1-0 20 27
Washington 99.2 100.6 98.7 1-0-0 13 7
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 104.8 106.7 105.8 1-0-0 27 20
Minnesota 104.6 105.2 105.5 0-1-0 9 14
Chicago 100.3 96.8 99.9 1-0-0 19 14
Detroit 92.3 91.3 92.4 0-1-0 14 19
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 105.4 107.7 107.9 1-0-0 14 9
Atlanta 103.9 102.3 102.9 0-1-0 9 15
Carolina 100.1 100.4 98.2 0-1-0 18 31
Tampa Bay 94.7 96.7 94.6 1-0-0 17 14
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 98.6 95.8 98.2 0-1-0 6 31
Arizona 98.3 98.6 98.7 1-0-0 17 13
Seattle 95.2 98.4 98.0 1-0-0 31 6
St. Louis 90.3 90.7 91.3 0-1-0 13 17
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 106.8 103.2 104.3 0-1-0 9 10
New England 106.1 104.4 107.4 1-0-0 38 24
Miami 101.7 101.3 101.7 1-0-0 15 10
Buffalo 97.0 95.2 95.9 0-1-0 10 15
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.1 105.2 106.9 1-0-0 10 9
Pittsburgh 101.7 102.9 102.6 1-0-0 15 9
Cincinnati 99.9 98.9 99.6 0-1-0 24 38
Cleveland 96.9 95.0 94.1 0-1-0 14 17
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Houston 103.7 104.3 103.3 1-0-0 34 24
Indianapolis 103.2 103.9 103.1 0-1-0 24 34
Tennessee 100.5 102.6 102.9 1-0-0 38 13
Jacksonville 96.9 97.8 98.2 1-0-0 24 17
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 101.2 101.8 101.1 0-1-0 14 21
Kansas City 97.0 98.7 97.8 1-0-0 21 14
Denver 96.0 95.8 96.4 0-1-0 17 24
Oakland 91.6 92.0 90.6 0-1-0 13 38
 

 

           
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
Week 2: Sept. 19-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of:

10:30 PM EDT Tuesday

           
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
CLEVELAND Kansas City 2.9 -0.7 -0.7 1    38   
GREEN BAY Buffalo 10.8 14.5 12.9 13    43   
Baltimore CINCINNATI 4.2 4.3 5.3 2 1/2 40   
TENNESSEE Pittsburgh 1.8 2.7 3.3 4 1/2 37   
Philadelphia DETROIT 5.7 6.5 3.6 5    42    
DALLAS Chicago 6.3 8.9 4.2 7 1/2 41   
CAROLINA Tampa Bay 8.4 6.7 6.6 NL NL
ATLANTA Arizona 8.6 6.7 7.2 6 1/2 43   
MINNESOTA Miami 6.9 7.9 7.8 5 1/2 39 1/2
OAKLAND St. Louis 3.3 3.3 1.3 3 1/2 37 1/2
DENVER Seattle 3.8 0.4 1.4 3 1/2 40   
Houston WASHINGTON 1.5 0.7 1.6 3    44   
SAN DIEGO Jacksonville 6.3 6.0 4.9 7 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK JETS New England 2.7 0.8 -1.1 -1 1/2 38 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS New York Giants 4.7 4.4 4.2 5 1/2 48   
New Orleans SAN FRANCISCO 2.8 7.9 5.7 4 1/2 44   

August 25, 2010

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

 

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

 

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

 

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

 

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com

 Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side:

Player

PiRate QB Rating

 

Player

Official NFL Rating

Aaron Rodgers

108.9

|||

Drew Brees

109.6

Drew Brees

107.5

|||

Brett Favre

107.2

Brett Favre

106.7

|||

Phil Rivers

104.4

Tony Romo

105.6

|||

Aaron Rodgers

103.2

Phil Rivers

104.8

|||

Ben Roethlisberger

100.5

Ben Roethlisberger

97.9

|||

Peyton Manning

99.9

Matt Schaub

97.8

|||

Matt Schaub

98.6

Peyton Manning

97.2

|||

Tony Romo

97.6

Donovan McNabb

96.3

|||

Tom Brady

96.2

David Garrard

96.1

|||

Kurt Warner

93.2

Kyle Orton

94.7

|||

Eli Manning

93.1

Brad Gradkowski

94.4

|||

Donovan McNabb

92.9

Tom Brady

93.8

|||

Joe Flacco

88.9

Kurt Warner

93.4

|||

Kyle Orton

86.8

Eli Manning

92.8

|||

Jason Campbell

86.4

Vince Young

92.1

|||

Carson Palmer

83.6

Joe Flacco

87.7

|||

David Garrard

83.5

Marc Bulger

86.7

|||

Vince Young

82.8

Jason Campbell

85.4

|||

Alex Smith

81.5

Matt Ryan

83.0

|||

Matt Ryan

80.9

Carson Palmer

81.7

|||

Brad Gradkowski

80.6

Chad Henne

80.8

|||

Jay Cutler

76.8

Alex Smith

79.7

|||

Chad Henne

75.2

Brady Quinn

78.4

|||

Matt Hasselbeck

75.1

Matt Hasselbeck

75.7

|||

Trent Edwards

73.8

Matt Cassel

75.7

|||

Marc Bulger

70.7

Kerry Collins

72.1

|||

Matt Cassel

69.9

Trent Edwards

69.9

|||

Ryan Fitzpatrick

69.7

Kyle Boller

69.1

|||

Brady Quinn

67.2

Jay Cutler

67.3

|||

Kerry Collins

65.5

Ryan Fitzpatrick

64.3

|||

Mark Sanchez

63.0

Mark Sanchez

60.9

|||

Kyle Boller

61.2

JaMarcus Russell

56.4

|||

Matt Stafford

61.0

Matt Stafford

54.1

|||

Josh Freeman

59.8

Jake Delhomme

51.5

|||

Jake Delhomme

59.4

Josh Freeman

46.4

|||

JaMarcus Russell

50.0

Derek Anderson

46.3

|||

Derek Anderson

42.1

 

Coming tomorrow: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2010 season and give our predictions for each division.

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