PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 7–October 24-25, 2010

A PiRate Look at the Playoff Chase

Parity, shmarity!  12 and only 12 teams will make the playoffs, and 20 teams will not regardless of how close the 32 teams might be in talent.  How do we look for the playoff teams? 

We wish we could tell you we have a great formula like we have for picking the NCAA Basketball Tournament.  If you want to read about that, click on the College Basketball link on the right side of the page and read up on how successful our tournament formula has been in the past. 

The only tell-tale sign in back-testing that is worth a grain of salt is scoring margin.  Teams with scoring margins over 10 points per game have historically dominated in the playoffs.  At this point of the season, it is too early to use scoring margin due to a small sampling of games.  After 16 games, the strengths of schedule differ much less, but after six games, the margin is too much.

 

Let’s try to look at the divisions strictly by how well the teams appear to be playing. 

NFC East

 

Dallas can forget hosting the Super Bowl.  They won’t make the playoffs this season.  The Giants and Eagles have yet to play each other, but we feel like Philadelphia is a little better at this point and believe the Eagles will soar above the rest in the East.  New York will stay in the playoff race.  Washington looks like an 8-8 team. 

NFC North

 

Green Bay’s injury problems have left this division race open for three teams.  Minnesota should begin to play better offensively as Randy Moss gets more and more acclimated to his old digs.  Chicago appears to be lacking the offensive line strength to win 10 games.  The Bears could be 9-7 or 8-8, and we think 9-7 will not be enough to qualify as a Wildcard.  As for the Packers, it is going to be tough relying strictly on the passing game when the weather turns frigid.  We think Minnesota will win the North with a 10-6 record. 

NFC South

 

As soon as Tampa Bay proves to be unworthy of playoff mention, this will become a two-team race between Atlanta and New Orleans.  They could finish in a tie, with the tiebreaker loser gaining a Wildcard spot.  We think both could finish 11-5. 

NFC West

 

It has never happened before, but there is a chance it could happen this year.  No division winner has ever been 8-8 or worse, but it could happen in this division.  Arizona and San Francisco have little on offense, while Seattle and St. Louis have so much young and inconsistent talent.  If we had to pick one team to go 9-7, it would be Pete Carroll’s Seahawks. 

AFC East

 

With Buffalo primed to go 2-14 or worse and probably go 0-6 in division play, it allows the other three teams to clean up in the standings.  The Jets look like the class of the league at this point of the season, but they are not dominant yet.  New England is solid, while Miami has enough talent to stay in the playoff picture.  We will call for the Jets to win the division at 12-4 or 13-3 with the Patriots in the Wildcard picture at 11-5 or 12-4.  As for Miami, the Dolphins will stay in the hunt for most of the season before settling in at 9-7. 

AFC North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore are as strong collectively as the Jets and Patriots.  We feel strongly that both teams will make the playoffs with records in the 12-4 range.  Cincinnati is going to struggle to finish at 8-8, while Cleveland will lose double digit games again. 

AFC South

 

With the East and North both having two very good teams, there won’t be room for a Wildcard in this division.  Three teams sit tied at 4-2.  Houston’s defense will cost them a game or two down the stretch.  Tennessee and Indianapolis should decide this division in their head-to-head matchups.  We will go with the great Peyton Manning to pull off two close wins and give the Colts another division title at 11-5.  Jacksonville will more than likely be shopping for a new coach.  They should be shopping for a new city.  The Los Angeles Jaguars has a nice ring to it. 

AFC West

 

San Diego cannot win on the road, and the last time we checked, they have eight road games.  Denver has not started on fire this year and will not be 6-2 at the halfway point before they collapse in the second half.  Oakland is still a dozen quality players short, while Kansas City has shown just enough to lead this division.  We think the Chiefs could pull this off at 9-7. 

Our playoff Soothsayer sees this scenario:

 

NFC

1. Philadelphia

2. New Orleans

3. Minnesota

4. Seattle

W. Atlanta 

W. New York Giants 

AFC

1. New York Jets

2. Pittsburgh

3. Indianapolis

4. Kansas City

W. New England 

W. Baltimore 

 

Wildcard Round

New York Giants at Minnesota

Atlanta at Seattle 

Baltimore at Indianapolis

New England at Kansas City 

Divisional Round

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia

Seattle at New Orleans 

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

New England at New York Jets

 

Conference Championship

New Orleans at Philadelphia

 

Pittsburgh at New York Jets 

SUPER BOWL

 

Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh 

Winner: The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

 

This Week’s PiRate Passer Ratings 

Player	Team	Comp%	Int %	AYPA	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	61.5	0.00	6.7	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	67.3	0.79	6.9	115.7
Kyle Orton	DEN	62.8	1.21	6.7	110.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	62.3	2.27	7	103.2
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	55.4	1.13	5.1	102.6
Kevin Kolb	PHI	67.6	1.90	5.8	99.7
Jay Cutler	CHI	60.3	2.13	5.7	97.2
Vince Young	TEN	61.4	1.98	5.4	96.8
Seneca Wallace	CLE	63.0	2.00	5.4	96.6
Josh Freeman	TB	59.1	1.89	5.1	96.0
Matt Ryan	ATL	60.3	1.83	5	95.9
Tom Brady	NE	67.5	2.41	5.6	94.2
Donovan McNabb	WAS	58.1	2.33	5.4	93.8
Matt Schaub	HOU	64.5	2.54	5.7	93.6
Drew Brees	NO	70.6	2.60	5.7	93.1
Matt Cassel	KC	57.8	2.22	4.9	91.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	61.2	2.35	4.9	90.7
Chad Henne	MIA	63.2	2.92	5.1	86.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	60.5	2.93	5.1	86.8
Tony Romo	DAL	69.4	3.40	5.7	86.0
Carson Palmer	CIN	59.3	3.09	4.8	83.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	64.2	3.48	5.3	83.0
Shaun Hill	DET	61.1	3.37	4.4	79.0
Eli Manning	NYG	64.7	3.92	4.9	76.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	61.4	3.61	4.2	75.7
Sam Bradford	STL	56.8	3.42	3.6	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	52.0	3.92	4.3	73.6
Alex Smith	SF	60.1	4.04	4.1	71.4
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	47.3	3.30	2.6	69.5
Brett Favre	MIN	58.7	4.67	3.5	62.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	51.8	4.39	2.8	61.1
Jason Campbell	OAK	56.0	4.40	2.6	59.9
David Garrard	JAX	65.6	5.47	3.2	53.8
Charlie Batch	PIT	59.2	6.12	3.7	50.8
Trent Edwards	JAX	56.6	5.26	1.4	45.5
Jake Delhomme	CLE	55.0	6.67	2.2	37.7
Matt Moore	CAR	42.4	10.17	0.2	-4.4

 

The PiRate Passer Formula is: ((7* AYPA) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8

 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Passing Yards minus Yards After Catch. 

This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Philadelphia Eagles	105.0	103.2	104.9	4-2-0	28.2	20.0
Dallas Cowboys	103.1	101.1	99.9	1-4-0	20.4	22.2
New York Giants	102.8	102.9	103.2	4-2-0	22.3	19.7
Washington Redskins	98.6	100.1	98.2	3-3-0	18.8	19.8
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota Vikings	103.1	102.0	100.7	2-3-0	17.4	17.6
Green Bay Packers	102.4	102.6	100.7	3-3-0	23.2	18.7
Chicago Bears	98.9	100.1	99.5	4-2-0	18.7	16.2
Detroit Lions	96.5	98.6	93.9	1-5-0	24.3	23.3
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	104.6	102.4	104.1	4-2-0	21.7	18.0
Atlanta Falcons	103.6	103.6	102.3	4-2-0	21.7	16.8
Carolina Panthers	97.1	92.2	89.8	0-5-0	10.4	22.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	92.6	95.4	96.7	3-2-0	16.0	22.2
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle Seahawks	97.4	97.3	98.6	3-2-0	19.6	19.4
San Francisco 49ers	97.1	95.6	95.8	1-5-0	16.3	23.2
St. Louis Rams	94.6	95.2	97.1	3-3-0	17.2	18.8
Arizona Cardinals	94.0	96.9	97.3	3-2-0	17.6	27.6
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New York Jets	110.4	108.1	109.4	5-1-0	26.5	16.8
New England Patriots	106.4	106.1	107.0	4-1-0	30.8	23.2
Miami Dolphins	101.4	99.4	101.7	3-2-0	17.8	22.4
Buffalo Bills	91.6	90.5	88.9	0-5-0	17.4	32.6
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	106.5	106.0	107.6	4-2-0	18.7	15.8
Pittsburgh Steelers	105.4	107.9	106.6	4-1-0	22.8	12.0
Cincinnati Bengals	100.5	99.0	99.0	2-3-0	20.0	20.4
Cleveland Browns	95.2	95.8	94.9	1-5-0	14.7	20.8
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis Colts	105.1	105.5	105.4	4-2-0	27.2	20.8
Tennessee Titans	103.2	107.0	105.3	4-2-0	27.0	16.3
Houston Texans	100.3	98.7	102.5	4-2-0	25.5	27.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	92.5	93.9	97.6	3-3-0	18.3	27.8
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	99.9	99.6	100.2	2-4-0	26.2	21.0
Kansas City Chiefs	99.6	99.6	100.7	3-2-0	21.6	18.4
Denver Broncos	97.6	99.6	97.3	2-4-0	20.7	23.3
Oakland Raiders	93.4	94.1	93.0	2-4-0	20.0	25.2

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 7: October 24-25, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Pittsburgh	MIAMI	2.0	6.5	2.9	3	40 ½
ATLANTA	Cincinnati	6.1	7.6	6.3	3 1/2	43
KANSAS CITY	Jacksonville	10.1	8.7	6.1	4 1/2	43
TENNESSEE	Philadelphia	1.2	6.8	3.4	3	44
CHICAGO	Washington	3.3	3.0	4.3	3	40
NEW ORLEANS	Cleveland	12.4	9.6	6.2	13	43
BALTIMORE	Buffalo	17.9	18.5	21.7	13	38
CAROLINA	San Francisco	2.0	-1.4	-4.0	-3	35
TAMPA BAY	St. Louis	0.0	2.2	1.6	3	38 ½
SEATTLE	Arizona	5.4	2.4	3.3	5 1/2	40 ½
New England	SAN DIEGO	2.5	2.5	2.8	-3	47
DENVER	Oakland	7.2	8.5	7.3	7	42 ½
GREEN BAY	Minnesota	2.3	2.6	3.0	2 1/2	44 ½
DALLAS	New York Giants	2.3	0.2	-1.3	3 1/2	44 ½



PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 6–October 17-18, 2010

Parity USA

 

For the first time since 1970, no NFL team won its first four games.  Let’s take a brief look at that season 40 years ago. 

 

It was the first season that the old AFL and the NFL were fully merged.  Baltimore (then the Colts), Pittsburgh, and Cleveland joined the new AFC, leaving 13 teams in each conference.

 

The divisional races were exciting with many unexpected turns.  In the AFC Central, the Cincinnati Bengals began the year losing six of their first seven games.  It appeared that Coach Paul Brown had lost the touch that had made him so successful with Cleveland.  The Bengals were in last place, three games behind their older in-state rival and given up for dead.  Just when it appeared like they would be in the hunt for the first pick in the next NFL Draft, a pick that would most assuredly be Jim Plunkett, the Bengals’ defense caught fire.  After giving up more than 25 points per game in the first half of the season, they gave up just 11 in the second half.  Seven consecutive wins later, Cincinnati had passed Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland to win the AFC Central with an 8-6-0 record.

 

In the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders came down to Earth after a three-year run which saw go 37-4-1.  Quarterback Daryle Lamonica was beginning to show signs of aging, so what did Coach John Madden do?  He inserted an even older quarterback into the lineup.  George Blanda won five comeback five games with his passing and kicking to propel Oakland from a 3-2-2 start to an 8-4-2 finish, passing Denver and Kansas City in the standings.

 

In the AFC East, John Unitas was beginning to show his age, but he had enough left in the tank to combine with a really good Colts’ defense to lead Baltimore to the best record in the conference.  Upstart Miami, with first year coach Don Shula enjoyed its first winning season, finishing 10-4 and earning the wildcard.

 

The NFC had its share of wild races.  In the East, the St. Louis Cardinals looked unbeatable when they shut out the Dallas Cowboys 38-0 on Monday Night Football.  The blowout moved the Cardinals to 7-2 and dropped the Cowboys to 5-4, a game behind the New York Giants at 6-3. 

 

The Giants led a host of teams vying for the wildcard berth.  Los Angeles stood one half game back at 5-3-1, while Detroit and Green Bay joined Dallas at 5-4.  The Lions would have been 6-3, but a 63-yard field goal by Tom Dempsey of the lowly Saints did them in.

 

What happened in the final five weeks?  St. Louis fell apart following the win over Dallas.  They tied Kansas City and beat the weak Philadelphia Eagles to move to 8-2-1 and looked to be in control.  But, that was their last win of the season.  At 8-5-1, they missed the playoffs altogether.

 

The Giants moved into first in the division by defeating the Cardinals in week 13 34-17, and at 9-4, they needed a win in the finale to secure the division title.  They never threatened in losing to the Rams by four touchdowns.

 

The Cowboys caught fire after the pasting in prime time.  They won five in a row to win the division on the final weekend.

 

The Minnesota Vikings rode the best defense in the league to a second consecutive 12-2-0 finish.  The San Francisco 49ers had the NFL’s top offense with quarterback John Brodie having an All-Pro season.  They made the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons (in 1957, they were in a playoff for the division title and lost to Detroit).

 

As for the wildcard berth, the Packers forgot how to score and fell out of the race, going on to lose four of their final five.  The Rams and Lions began to pull away from the rest, and the two faced off in week 13 on Monday Night Football at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.  The Lions won an exciting game to move a half game in front of the Rams at 9-4.  They clinched the spot the following week with a 20-0 win over Green Bay.

 

You can see a lot of possible similarities in this year’s races.  Could the San Francisco 49ers still catch fire and be this year’s version of the Bengals?  The NFC West is weak enough so that 8-8 could win the division.  Might Mike Singletary be able to coax the Prospectors to a 8-3 finish?

 

Dallas could be the team that comes from off the pace to win the division.  The Giants, Eagles, and Redskins are all capable of losing two or three in a row.

 

What about the Vikings?  Is Brett Favre going to rebound?  Can the Bears be the surprise team in the North and win the division much like the 49ers emerged in 1970.  What about the Chiefs?  Are they going to be like San Francisco was and win the division title in a big surprise?  Might they earn a wildcard like the upstart 1970 Dolphins, or will they be like the Cardinals and collapse in the second half?

 

It will be interesting in this season of parity.  Expect to see about 10 teams competing for three or four playoff spots in the final couple of weeks.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.2	102.3	1-3-0	20.3	27.8
Philadelphia	102.0	100.5	100.3	3-2-0	24.4	20.6
New York Giants	100.7	99.0	99.1	3-2-0	21.2	19.6
Washington	98.1	99.4	97.5	3-2-0	17.8	18.4
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.2	104.3	104.5	3-2-0	23.8	17.8
Minnesota	103.3	101.7	102.0	1-3-0	15.8	16.8
Chicago	100.9	99.7	101.1	4-1-0	18.4	14.8
Detroit	94.3	94.0	95.7	1-4-0	25.2	22.4
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	105.7	104.5	105.4	4-1-0	22.6	14.0
New Orleans	103.3	103.0	103.4	3-2-0	19.4	20.4
Carolina	97.9	94.9	95.9	0-5-0	10.4	22.0
Tampa Bay	94.3	97.6	97.6	3-1-0	14.8	16.0
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.2	94.6	92.8	0-5-0	15.2	26.0
Seattle	94.5	95.7	95.4	2-2-0	18.8	19.3
St. Louis	94.0	96.5	97.3	2-3-0	16.6	19.2
Arizona	92.5	94.3	94.2	3-2-0	17.6	27.6
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	111.1	108.2	109.0	4-1-0	27.0	16.2
New England	106.6	106.1	106.5	3-1-0	32.8	24.0
Miami	100.1	98.6	101.3	2-2-0	16.5	23.0
Buffalo	92.6	93.7	93.4	0-5-0	17.4	32.6
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.6	106.3	4-1-0	18.4	14.4
Pittsburgh	103.7	107.0	105.5	3-1-0	21.5	12.5
Cincinnati	101.6	100.8	100.9	2-3-0	20.0	20.4
Cleveland	97.4	97.3	96.3	1-4-0	15.6	19.4
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.9	104.4	103.4	3-2-0	27.2	20.2
Houston	101.9	101.5	103.5	3-2-0	23.6	27.2
Tennessee	99.4	102.3	99.5	3-2-0	26.4	19.0
Jacksonville	94.1	95.0	95.2	3-2-0	21.4	27.4
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	103.8	103.5	103.0	2-3-0	28.0	21.2
Kansas City	100.5	101.8	100.9	3-1-0	19.3	14.3
Denver	97.0	99.1	97.8	2-3-0	20.8	23.2
Oakland	92.4	93.0	92.7	2-3-0	22.2	26.8

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 6: October 17-18, 2010
Vegas Line as of 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
San Diego	ST. LOUIS	8.5	4.1	6.2	8 1/2	45
HOUSTON	Kansas City	1.3	-0.6	1.3	4 1/2	44
NEW ENGLAND	Baltimore	4.3	3.3	2.7	3	44 1/2
New Orleans	TAMPA BAY	4.4	-2.6	1.8	5	44
Atlanta	PHILADELPHIA	1.8	2.5	1.4	NL	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Detroit	9.7	6.2	10.4	10	44 1/2
CHICAGO	Seattle	10.2	10.0	10.0	7	40
GREEN BAY	Miami	6.6	10.1	5.1	NL	NL
PITTSBURGH	Cleveland	8.8	12.7	11.5	13 1/2	37
New York Jets	DENVER	11.4	5.8	7.6	3	40 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Oakland	7.1	3.1	3.3	6 1/2	41
MINNESOTA	Dallas	4.2	4.6	4.2	1 1/2	43 1/2
Indianapolis	WASHINGTON	3.5	2.5	2.4	3 1/2	43 1/2
Tennessee	JACKSONVILLE	2.5	6.3	0.6	3	44 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 5–October 10-11, 2010

Four weeks into the NFL season gives us enough time to begin to make assumptions.  There just may not be a great team in the league this year.  The Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team left, and it is a good bet they will not be so after this week.

We have a lot of mediocre teams and a handful of good but not great teams.  Scoring is down this year.  That gives the odds makers quite a dilemma.  The underdog is covering more than ever this year.  The lines will be shorter, and this will create many instances where sweetheart teaser plays become more advantageous.

If a team that should be a five-point favorite all of a sudden becomes a two and a half-point favorite, then playing a 10-point teaser to make them a seven and a half-point underdog becomes truly sweet and playing a 13-point teaser to make them a 10 ½-point underdog becomes money in the bank.

The PiRates are having a great time playing these NFL sweetheart teasers so far this year.  In fact, we may have to consider not playing any college games and picking just NFL games, at least as long as this hot streak continues.

We have also fattened up on money line parlays that take advantage of the fact that favorites are still winning but not covering.  The lower the regular spread, the lower the money line odds. 

                                                PiRate QB Passer Ratings                                       

 

Player	Team	AYPA	INT%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	7.4	0.58	120.3
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	6.1	0.00	118.2
Tony Romo	DAL	6.6	1.56	107.2
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.6	1.71	105.9
Donovan McNabb	WAS	6.5	1.65	105.9
Tom Brady	NE	6.3	1.64	104.9
Drew Brees	NO	6.2	1.79	103.0
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.3	2.84	99.9
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	1.82	98.2
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.1	2.01	94.8
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.86	90.2
Jay Cutler	CHI	5.7	2.94	90.0
Josh Freeman	TB	4.8	2.41	89.7
Matt Shcaub	HOU	5.6	3.08	88.3
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.4	2.46	87.0
Chad Henne	MIA	5.2	3.03	86.5
Vince Young	TEN	4.8	2.82	86.1
Kevin Kolb	PHI	3.3	2.22	82.9
Dennis Dixon	PIT	4.5	3.13	81.7
Matt Cassel	KC	4.4	3.90	74.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.5	4.21	72.1
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.55	70.9
Sam Bradford	STL	3.6	3.80	70.7
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.8	4.63	64.5
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	3.0	4.17	64.1
Shaun Hill	DET	3.7	4.67	63.6
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	4.76	62.8
Alex Smith	SF	3.5	4.64	62.8
Jason Campbell	OAK	2.2	3.85	62.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	2.8	4.46	60.4
Trent Edwards	BUF	1.5	3.85	58.6
Jake Delhomme	CLE	3.7	5.41	57.2
David Garrard	JAX	3.0	5.21	55.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.2	7.14	50.3
Brett Favre	MIN	2.8	6.19	45.2
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.8	7.14	42.4
Matt Moore	CAR	1.2	8.16	18.9
PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.2	102.3	1-2-0	18.0	17.7
Philadelphia	102.0	100.5	100.3	2-2-0	23.8	19.8
New York Giants	100.7	99.0	99.1	2-2-0	18.0	22.0
Washington	98.1	99.4	97.5	2-2-0	18.3	19.8
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.2	104.3	104.5	3-1-0	26.5	18.3
Minnesota	103.3	101.7	102.0	1-2-0	14.3	12.7
Chicago	100.9	99.7	101.1	3-1-0	17.3	17.0
Detroit	94.3	94.0	95.7	0-4-0	20.5	26.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	105.7	104.5	105.4	3-1-0	23.3	15.0
New Orleans	103.3	103.0	103.4	3-1-0	19.8	18.0
Carolina	97.9	94.9	95.9	0-4-0	11.5	21.8
Tampa Bay	94.3	97.6	97.6	2-1-0	16.7	19.7
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.2	94.6	92.8	0-4-0	13.0	25.8
Seattle	94.5	95.7	95.4	2-2-0	18.8	19.3
St. Louis	94.0	96.5	97.3	2-2-0	19.3	13.0
Arizona	92.5	94.3	94.2	2-2-0	14.5	29.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	111.1	108.2	109.0	3-1-0	26.5	15.3
New England	106.6	106.1	106.5	3-1-0	32.8	24.0
Miami	100.1	98.6	101.3	2-2-0	16.5	23.0
Buffalo	92.6	93.7	93.4	0-4-0	15.3	31.3
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.6	106.3	3-1-0	15.3	13.8
Pittsburgh	103.7	107.0	105.5	3-1-0	21.5	12.5
Cincinnati	101.6	100.8	100.9	2-2-0	19.8	19.5
Cleveland	97.4	97.3	96.3	1-3-0	17.0	19.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.9	104.4	103.4	2-2-0	29.3	23.0
Houston	101.9	101.5	103.5	3-1-0	27.0	25.5
Tennessee	99.4	102.3	99.5	2-2-0	24.5	17.0
Jacksonville	94.1	95.0	95.2	2-2-0	17.8	27.8
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	103.8	103.5	103.0	2-2-0	28.3	17.8
Kansas City	100.5	101.8	100.9	3-0-0	22.7	10.3
Denver	97.0	99.1	97.8	2-2-0	21.8	21.3
Oakland	92.4	93.0	92.7	1-3-0	19.0	26.8

 

This Week’s Games                                                                

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site                                                       

                                                                       

Week 5: October 10-11, 2010                                                            

Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday                                                                

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 5: October 10-11, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
BALTIMORE	Denver	12.1	9.5	11.5	7	38 1/2
BUFFALO	Jacksonville	1.5	1.7	1.2	Pk	41
INDIANAPOLIS	Kansas City	7.4	5.6	5.5	8	44 1/2
DETROIT	St. Louis	3.3	0.5	1.4	3	42 1/2
Atlanta	CLEVELAND	5.3	4.2	6.1	3	40 1/2
CINCINNATI	Tampa Bay	9.3	5.2	5.3	6 1/2	38
Chicago	CAROLINA	0.0	1.8	2.2	2 1/2	35 1/2
Green Bay	WASHINGTON	3.1	1.9	4.0	2 1/2	44
HOUSTON	New York Giants	3.2	4.5	6.4	3	47 1/2
New Orleans	ARIZONA	8.8	6.7	7.2	6 1/2	45 1/2
San Diego	OAKLAND	9.4	8.5	8.3	6	45
DALLAS	Tennessee	7.8	2.9	5.8	6 1/2	41 1/2
Philadelphia	SAN FRANCISCO	0.8	1.9	3.5	-3	38
NEW YORK JETS	Minnesota	9.8	8.5	9.0	4	38 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 4–October 3-4, 2010

Week 3 PiRate Passer Ratings *

Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	PiRate #
Peyton Manning	IND	7.7	0.00	127.1
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	6.1	0.00	118.2
Donovan McNabb	WAS	7.0	0.98	114.6
Kyle Orton	DEN	7.4	1.60	111.4
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.7	0.94	107.6
Tony Romo	DAL	6.6	1.56	107.2
Chad Henne	MIA	5.8	1.08	107.0
Jay Cutler	CHI	7.5	2.20	106.7
Drew Brees	NO	6.2	1.79	103.0
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	2.04	102.4
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	1.82	98.2
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	3.31	92.4
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.86	90.2
Josh Freeman	TB	4.8	2.41	89.7
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.4	2.46	87.0
Dennis Dixon	PIT	4.5	3.13	81.7
Brad Gradkowski	OAK	5.1	3.57	81.1
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.4	3.96	79.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.06	77.8
Matt Cassel	KC	4.4	3.90	74.4
Kerry Collins	TEN	3.7	4.00	69.5
Alex Smith	SF	3.7	4.20	67.7
Vince Young	TEN	4.3	4.65	67.1
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.8	4.63	64.5
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	3.0	4.17	64.1
Sam Bradford	STL	3.1	4.27	63.8
Shaun Hill	DET	3.7	4.67	63.6
Jason Campbell	OAK	2.2	3.85	62.5
Trent Edwards	BUF	1.5	3.85	58.6
Eli Manning	NYG	4.5	5.88	57.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	3.7	5.41	57.2
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.9	5.56	57.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.2	7.14	50.3
Brett Favre	MIN	2.8	6.19	45.2
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.8	7.14	42.4
David Garrard	JAX	1.8	6.76	34.6
Matt Moore	CAR	1.2	8.16	18.9

 

* PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

Where AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (passing yards minus yards after catch)

AYPA is available at advancednflstats.com

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.4	103.6	1-2-0	18.0	17.7
Philadelphia	103.3	103.1	103.6	2-1-0	27.7	20.7
New York Giants	98.8	94.8	97.4	1-2-0	18.3	28.3
Washington	96.8	99.4	95.6	1-2-0	18.7	22.3
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.8	106.6	107.8	2-1-0	26.0	15.7
Minnesota	103.3	102.5	102.3	1-2-0	14.3	12.7
Chicago	102.3	102.0	104.4	3-0-0	22.0	17.0
Detroit	92.7	95.1	92.7	0-3-0	18.7	26.0
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	106.3	108.9	107.7	2-1-0	25.7	15.3
New Orleans	104.5	104.8	106.0	2-1-0	21.0	19.3
Carolina	96.7	90.7	91.4	0-3-0	10.7	23.7
Tampa Bay	94.3	94.8	97.1	2-1-0	16.7	19.7
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	96.4	93.2	95.4	0-3-0	10.3	29.0
Arizona	95.6	97.5	97.9	2-1-0	16.0	25.7
Seattle	95.5	99.3	100.1	2-1-0	24.0	19.0
St. Louis	92.5	96.2	94.7	1-2-0	19.0	16.3
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	108.6	104.4	106.7	2-1-0	22.7	15.7
New England	104.6	100.4	104.5	2-1-0	30.0	27.3
Miami	102.1	101.6	101.2	2-1-0	17.3	17.0
Buffalo	95.6	94.0	91.2	0-3-0	15.7	29.0
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	104.8	101.9	103.7	2-1-0	14.7	13.7
Pittsburgh	104.5	107.7	107.7	3-0-0	24.0	11.0
Cincinnati	102.3	98.1	102.4	2-1-0	19.7	18.3
Cleveland	96.7	95.7	94.8	0-3-0	15.0	19.0
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	105.9	109.7	107.8	2-1-0	29.7	20.3
Houston	101.7	103.8	103.4	2-1-0	25.7	26.0
Tennessee	101.1	102.6	102.5	2-1-0	26.0	14.0
Jacksonville	93.1	93.4	91.2	1-2-0	13.3	27.7
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.2	101.6	99.9	1-2-0	24.0	20.3
Kansas City	100.5	100.4	99.5	3-0-0	22.7	10.3
Denver	95.8	100.6	96.8	1-2-0	20.3	21.7
Oakland	92.6	92.3	89.1	1-2-0	17.3	25.3

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 4: October 3-4, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
TENNESSEE	Denver	8.3	5.0	8.7	6 1/2	41 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Baltimore	2.7	8.8	7.0	1 1/2	34 1/2
Cincinnati	CLEVELAND	3.6	0.4	5.6	3	37 1/2
GREEN BAY	Detroit	16.1	14.5	18.1	14 1/2	45 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Carolina	10.8	17.1	17.6	13	44
ATLANTA	San Francisco	12.9	18.7	15.3	7	42
Seattle	ST. LOUIS	1.0	1.1	3.4	Pk	38 1/2
New York Jets	BUFFALO	10.0	7.4	12.5	5	37
Indianapolis	JACKSONVILLE	9.8	13.3	13.6	7 1/2	46 1/2
Houston	OAKLAND	7.1	9.5	12.3	3	43 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Arizona	7.6	6.1	4.0	8	46
PHILADELPHIA	Washington	9.5	6.7	11.0	6	42 1/2
Chicago	NEW YORK GIANTS	0.5	4.2	4.0	-4	44
New England	MIAMI	0.5	-3.2	1.3	Pk	45 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 2–September 19-20, 2010

18.3!  That is the average number of points scored per team in the opening week of the 2010 NFL season.  That is a little more than a field goal less per team compared to last year.  Is this a sign that scoring is about to become harder in the league, or is it more of a case of so many closely-matched contests in week one?  We will have to wait a couple of weeks before we can begin to make an assumption.

Week two finds a handful of interesting games on the slate.  The Jets hook up with the Pats, and it is almost a must-win game for Coach Rex Ryan and his crew.  After losing Monday night at home to Baltimore, a loss would to New England would give Team Belichick a two-game edge in the AFC East.

Indianapolis hosts the Giants in a battle of Manning vs. Manning.  The Colts could not stop the Houston running game, and the Texans are not a rushing behemoth.  If Eli and company get the best of Peyton and company, the Colts could be two games behind the rest of the division.

Kansas City visits Cleveland, and if the Chiefs can pull off the road win over a weak Browns’ team, they will become a legitimate threat in the AFC West.  The Chiefs get Cleveland and Buffalo as part of finishing fourth in the division last year, while the Chargers must play New England and Cincinnati. 

Dallas hosts Chicago, and the Cowboys must rebound or else they could find themselves in a hole they cannot crawl out of.  Jerry Jones might even begin to consider his options if the Cowboys lay another egg offensively this week.  The mental anguish of having the winning touchdown called back could do to Dallas what Virginia Tech’s loss to Boise State did to the Hokies.  Additionally, Chicago benefitted from a final play penalty to beat Detroit, and the Bears could get a positive bounce from that event.

The Saints and Vikings got an extra three days to prepare for their second games.  Minnesota hosts Miami.  The Dolphins struggled to beat the hapless Bills, and the Vikes are much better at home than they are on the road.  After the opening touchdown drive, Minnesota’s defense shut down Drew Brees.

The Saints fly into a hornet’s nest in San Francisco.  Mike Singletary will have the 49ers hopping mad after the embarrassing loss at Seattle.

                Week One PiRate Passer Ratings *                                

Player	Team	PiRate #
David Garrard	JAX	126.0
VinceYoung	TEN	125.4
Tom Brady	N-E	125.4
Peyton Manning	IND	123.8
Phil Rivers	S-D	122.1
Drew Brees	N-O	118.7
Derek Anderson	ARI	118.7
Michael Vick	PHI	118.2
Tony Romo	DAL	116.5
Donovan McNabb	WAS	111.4
Chad Henne	MIA	108.6
Matthew Stafford	DET	108.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	104.2
Trent Edwards	BUF	101.4
Matt Cassel	K-C	99.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	98.9
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	98.6
Kyle Orton	DEN	93.2
Matt Ryan	ATL	87.5
Joe Flacco	BAL	87.2
Dennis Dixon	PIT	82.1
Josh Freeman	T-B	75.0
Brett Favre	MIN	74.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	74.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	73.7
Alex Smith	S-F	59.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	57.2
Matt Schaub	HOU	47.9
Shaun Hill	DET	47.2
Sam Bradford	STL	46.1
Aaron Rodgers	G-B	40.1
Eli Manning	NYG	18.4
Matt Moore	CAR	6.2

 

* PiRate Passer Rating: [((7 x AYPA) – (10 x Int. %)) + 105] x 0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (eliminates Yards After the Catch)

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	103.6	102.7	101.1	0-1-0	7	13
New York Giants	101.5	102.5	101.9	1-0-0	31	18
Philadelphia	101.0	100.8	99.0	0-1-0	20	27
Washington	99.2	100.6	98.7	1-0-0	13	7
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.8	106.7	105.8	1-0-0	27	20
Minnesota	104.6	105.2	105.5	0-1-0	9	14
Chicago	100.3	96.8	99.9	1-0-0	19	14
Detroit	92.3	91.3	92.4	0-1-0	14	19
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans	105.4	107.7	107.9	1-0-0	14	9
Atlanta	103.9	102.3	102.9	0-1-0	9	15
Carolina	100.1	100.4	98.2	0-1-0	18	31
Tampa Bay	94.7	96.7	94.6	1-0-0	17	14
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	98.6	95.8	98.2	0-1-0	6	31
Arizona	98.3	98.6	98.7	1-0-0	17	13
Seattle	95.2	98.4	98.0	1-0-0	31	6
St. Louis	90.3	90.7	91.3	0-1-0	13	17
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	106.8	103.2	104.3	0-1-0	9	10
New England	106.1	104.4	107.4	1-0-0	38	24
Miami	101.7	101.3	101.7	1-0-0	15	10
Buffalo	97.0	95.2	95.9	0-1-0	10	15
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.2	106.9	1-0-0	10	9
Pittsburgh	101.7	102.9	102.6	1-0-0	15	9
Cincinnati	99.9	98.9	99.6	0-1-0	24	38
Cleveland	96.9	95.0	94.1	0-1-0	14	17
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Houston	103.7	104.3	103.3	1-0-0	34	24
Indianapolis	103.2	103.9	103.1	0-1-0	24	34
Tennessee	100.5	102.6	102.9	1-0-0	38	13
Jacksonville	96.9	97.8	98.2	1-0-0	24	17
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.2	101.8	101.1	0-1-0	14	21
Kansas City	97.0	98.7	97.8	1-0-0	21	14
Denver	96.0	95.8	96.4	0-1-0	17	24
Oakland	91.6	92.0	90.6	0-1-0	13	38
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 2: Sept. 19-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of: 10:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
CLEVELAND	Kansas City	2.9	-0.7	-0.7	1	38
GREEN BAY	Buffalo	10.8	14.5	12.9	13	43
Baltimore	CINCINNATI	4.2	4.3	5.3	2 1/2	40
TENNESSEE	Pittsburgh	1.8	2.7	3.3	4 1/2	37
Philadelphia	DETROIT	5.7	6.5	3.6	5	42
DALLAS	Chicago	6.3	8.9	4.2	7 1/2	41
CAROLINA	Tampa Bay	8.4	6.7	6.6	NL	NL
ATLANTA	Arizona	8.6	6.7	7.2	6 1/2	43
MINNESOTA	Miami	6.9	7.9	7.8	5 1/2	39 1/2
OAKLAND	St. Louis	3.3	3.3	1.3	3 1/2	37 1/2
DENVER	Seattle	3.8	0.4	1.4	3 1/2	40
Houston	WASHINGTON	1.5	0.7	1.6	3	44
SAN DIEGO	Jacksonville	6.3	6.0	4.9	7 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	New England	2.7	0.8	-1.1	-1 1/2	38 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	New York Giants	4.7	4.4	4.2	5 1/2	48
New Orleans	SAN FRANCISCO	2.8	7.9	5.7	4 1/2	44

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

 

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

 

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

 

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

 

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

 Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side:

Player	PiRate QB Rating		Player	Official NFL Rating
Aaron Rodgers	108.9	|||	Drew Brees	109.6
Drew Brees	107.5	|||	Brett Favre	107.2
Brett Favre	106.7	|||	Phil Rivers	104.4
Tony Romo	105.6	|||	Aaron Rodgers	103.2
Phil Rivers	104.8	|||	Ben Roethlisberger	100.5
Ben Roethlisberger	97.9	|||	Peyton Manning	99.9
Matt Schaub	97.8	|||	Matt Schaub	98.6
Peyton Manning	97.2	|||	Tony Romo	97.6
Donovan McNabb	96.3	|||	Tom Brady	96.2
David Garrard	96.1	|||	Kurt Warner	93.2
Kyle Orton	94.7	|||	Eli Manning	93.1
Brad Gradkowski	94.4	|||	Donovan McNabb	92.9
Tom Brady	93.8	|||	Joe Flacco	88.9
Kurt Warner	93.4	|||	Kyle Orton	86.8
Eli Manning	92.8	|||	Jason Campbell	86.4
Vince Young	92.1	|||	Carson Palmer	83.6
Joe Flacco	87.7	|||	David Garrard	83.5
Marc Bulger	86.7	|||	Vince Young	82.8
Jason Campbell	85.4	|||	Alex Smith	81.5
Matt Ryan	83.0	|||	Matt Ryan	80.9
Carson Palmer	81.7	|||	Brad Gradkowski	80.6
Chad Henne	80.8	|||	Jay Cutler	76.8
Alex Smith	79.7	|||	Chad Henne	75.2
Brady Quinn	78.4	|||	Matt Hasselbeck	75.1
Matt Hasselbeck	75.7	|||	Trent Edwards	73.8
Matt Cassel	75.7	|||	Marc Bulger	70.7
Kerry Collins	72.1	|||	Matt Cassel	69.9
Trent Edwards	69.9	|||	Ryan Fitzpatrick	69.7
Kyle Boller	69.1	|||	Brady Quinn	67.2
Jay Cutler	67.3	|||	Kerry Collins	65.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	64.3	|||	Mark Sanchez	63.0
Mark Sanchez	60.9	|||	Kyle Boller	61.2
JaMarcus Russell	56.4	|||	Matt Stafford	61.0
Matt Stafford	54.1	|||	Josh Freeman	59.8
Jake Delhomme	51.5	|||	Jake Delhomme	59.4
Josh Freeman	46.4	|||	JaMarcus Russell	50.0
Derek Anderson	46.3	|||	Derek Anderson	42.1

 

Coming tomorrow: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2010 season and give our predictions for each division.

PiRate Ratings NFL Previews For Week 11: November 13-17, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 11

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		8	–	1	–	0	262	160	108.73	107.66	108.18	2
Washington		6	–	3	–	0	171	168	100.32	100.91	101.54	2
Philadelphia		5	–	4	–	0	251	180	108.50	105.53	104.70	2
Dallas		5	–	4	–	0	216	219	100.33	101.20	101.60	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Chicago		5	–	4	–	0	237	194	106.55	102.63	104.33	2
Minnesota		5	–	4	–	0	210	215	101.66	101.38	101.90	2
Green Bay		4	–	5	–	0	237	206	104.33	103.23	102.81	2
Detroit		0	–	9	–	0	151	277	87.31	89.90	85.94	3
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Carolina		7	–	2	–	0	191	133	106.84	104.19	105.90	2
Tampa Bay		6	–	3	–	0	200	147	106.08	103.46	105.01	2
Atlanta		6	–	3	–	0	211	174	104.11	102.06	104.33	2
New Orleans		4	–	5	–	0	236	229	100.49	100.32	99.06	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		6	–	3	–	0	263	208	103.71	102.93	104.42	3
Seattle		2	–	7	–	0	170	231	92.76	95.33	94.11	3
San Francisco		2	–	7	–	0	195	259	92.62	93.51	91.32	3
St. Louis		2	–	7	–	0	128	282	84.47	90.05	86.60	2
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New England		6	–	3	–	0	188	160	99.65	102.71	104.17	2
New York		6	–	3	–	0	255	190	102.62	102.12	104.04	2
Miami		5	–	4	–	0	192	182	100.60	99.58	102.53	2
Buffalo		5	–	4	–	0	192	189	97.47	97.85	99.16	3
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Pittsburgh		6	–	3	–	0	198	140	107.83	105.45	105.75	2
Baltimore		6	–	3	–	0	212	150	106.45	105.14	105.41	3
Cleveland		3	–	6	–	0	172	194	98.52	98.51	96.50	2
Cincinnati		1	–	8	–	0	125	236	91.18	92.96	92.12	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tennessee		9	–	0	–	0	220	117	111.42	107.94	108.77	2
Indianapolis		5	–	4	–	0	191	197	103.05	103.17	103.14	2
Jacksonville		4	–	5	–	0	198	186	100.01	100.75	99.05	3
Houston		3	–	6	–	0	209	254	96.02	97.67	95.84	3
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		5	–	4	–	0	224	251	95.51	96.94	99.19	2
San Diego		4	–	5	–	0	244	218	101.06	100.83	101.68	2
Oakland		2	–	7	–	0	113	218	88.97	91.40	89.57	2
Kansas City		1	–	8	–	0	145	243	90.94	92.67	91.42	2

 

Note: due to a Thursday game this week, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday Noon EST

 

NFL Previews-Week 11

 

New York Jets (6-3) at New England (6-3)

Time:           8:15 EST Thursday 11/13

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Rain Showers, moderate wind, temperature holding steady around 44 degrees

 

PiRate:         Jets by 1                  

Mean:           New England by 3

Bias:             New England by 2

Vegas:        New England by 3    -165/+155

Ov/Un:        40½  

Strategy:     New England +7 in 10-point teaser, New England +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 10-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser    

The weather could play an important role in this game, but I still believe the power of weeknight primetime television will have an even stronger effect.

 

To the winner goes undisputed first place in the toughest division in the AFC.  The Patriots’ defense dominated the Jets in their earlier meeting in New Jersey, but Brett Favre’s grasp of the Jet offense is much stronger now.  The Jets have scored 101 points in their last three games.

 

This is a tricky game, and the rivalry between the two coaches is important.  I like the home team on short preparation but not enough to take them outright.  Thus, I will utilize our trusty friend “The Teaser” and take the Pats and points.      

 

Denver (5-4) at Atlanta (6-3)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Atlanta by 11

Mean:           Atlanta by 7

Bias:             Atlanta by 7

Vegas:        Atlanta by 6       -265/+245

Ov/Un:        50½              

Strategy:     Over 40½ in 10-point teaser, Over 37½ in 13-point teaser 

Atlanta has a favorable schedule the rest of the way, and the Falcons should win at least 10 games.  Coach Mike Smith has to be one of the favorites for Coach of the Year.  His team has played tough every week, and his rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has enjoyed a first year that few star quarterbacks in the past have enjoyed.  Ryan is on pace for 3,400 passing yards and 20 TDs.

 

Denver’s Jay Cutler may have to pass the ball 45 times this week, as the Broncos are missing their top four runners.  There is a chance Selvin Young might be able to go, but it looks like fullback Peyton Hillis will have to carry the load.

 

I am looking for a rather high scoring game.  Atlanta has not surrendered more than 27 points in any game this year, and they may hold Denver to 21 to 27 points this week.  Atlanta will top 20 points as well, so I am teasing the totals.

 

Oakland (2-7) at Miami (5-4)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind with occasional strong gusts, temperature in low 70’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 14      

Mean:           Miami by 10

Bias:             Miami by 15

Vegas:        Miami by 10½   -500/+400   

Ov/Un:        38

Strategy:     Miami -500 (as part of a money line parlay), Miami -½ in 10-point teaser, Miami +2½ in 13-point teaser

Teams traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast have yet to win a game this year, and I don’t expect that stat to change with this game.  Oakland has scored 35 total points in their last five games (since Tom Cable took over as interim coach).  JaMarcus Russell may be another Vince Young in the making without all the off-the-field problems.  He is questionable for this game.  Last week’s starter Andrew Walter is not 100% healthy this week, and he wasn’t effective when he was healthy.  Marques Tuiasosospo is the third quarterback; does it really matter which of these three play Sunday?  I don’t think so.  The Raiders are completely dysfunctional, and I’m thinking they will be lucky to score a touchdown this week.

 

Miami is the Atlanta of the AFC.  Coach Tony Sparano should be the AFC Coach of the Year, but Jeff Fisher might get that award if the Titans go 14-2 or better.  The Dolphins are considerably better defensively now than they were in September, and this week should be like child’s play for the stop side. 

 

When Miami has the ball, it may take a quarter to get untracked, but eventually they will score points.  Go with the fish in this one.  I like playing the Dolphins in a money line pick, but I love them as part of a money line parlay.

 

Baltimore (6-3) at New York Giants (8-1)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in upper 40’s

 

PiRate:         Giants by 4

Mean:           Giants by 5

Bias:             Giants by 5

Vegas:        Giants by 7        -290/+245

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     Baltimore +17 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +20 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser 

Could this Baltimore team be as good as the one that won the Super Bowl eight years ago?  That 2000 Ravens team was only 5-4 after nine games, and their offense was averaging just 15.6 points per game.  True, their defense was yielding less than 11 points per game at that time.  This Ravens team is 6-3 with a potent offense averaging 33.5 points per game in the last four weeks.  The defense is not comparable to the champion defense of 2000, but Ray Lewis and company can still get the job done; Baltimore is giving up just 16.7 points per game.

 

Can the Ravens win on the road against the 8-1 defending Super Bowl Champs?  Yes, they can, but don’t risk losing money on that chance.  Feel confident that they will at the very least keep this game within two touchdowns. The Giants have to cover a touchdown and adding 10 or 13 points onto that gives them an almost impossible task.  New York could win this game by 10 points, and they could be extended until late in the fourth quarter with the game on the line.  Baltimore could win.  Playing the Ravens in the teasers wins in all three circumstances.

 

I like teasing the Over here as well.  Joe Flacco is giving Matt Ryan a good battle for rookie supremacy.  Having three quality running backs on hand takes the heat off him.  While I don’s see the Ravens striking for 30 points this week, I do see them topping 20.  So, I like teasing the Over as well.

 

Houston (3-6) at Indianapolis (5-4)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome likely to be closed, but if it is open: Mostly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 40’s.

 

PiRate:         Indianapolis by 9

Mean:           Indianapolis by 8

Bias:             Indianapolis by 9

Vegas:         Indianapolis by 7½ -340/+310  

Ov/Un:        50

Strategy:     Indianapolis -340 (as part of money line parlay), Indianapolis +2½ in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +5½ in 13-point teaser, Over 40 in 10-point teaser, Over 37 in 13-point teaser    

The Colts find themselves one game behind the wildcard leaders with seven weeks to go, but it is my opinion that they will finish the season as strong as they have finished in prior years.  They could easily win 10 or 11 games, especially if Tennessee has nothing to play for on the final weekend.

 

Houston’s three week rise came to a crash in Minneapolis two weeks ago, and the Texans are headed nowhere this year.  They gave up 31 points to Peyton Manning and company in their first meeting, and number 18 could easily top that mark in this game.

 

I’m going with the Colts to win this game, but I do not like the 7½ point spread.  So, I will include Indianapolis in my money line parlays and my teasers.  The Over could be topped by the Colts’ offense alone when you tease it.

 

Chicago (5-4) at Green Bay (4-5)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Snow showers, strong wind, temperature in the mid 30’s

 

PiRate:         Tossup

Mean:          Green Bay by 3

Bias:            Tossup

Vegas:         Green Bay by 4½     -210/+180  

Ov/Un:        44½

Strategy:     Chicago +14½ in 10-point teaser, Chicago +17½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

As I write this Wednesday afternoon, it is unsure whether Kyle Orton will be able to go for the Bears this week.  Orton makes a huge difference over Rex Grossman.  So, I cannot recommend any plays here until it is known who will be under center for Chicago.  The above strategy applies only if Orton will play.

 

On the other side of the field, Aaron Rodgers is still nursing a sore shoulder.  He cannot throw the deep ball with the same zip he could when healthy.

 

Philadelphia (5-4) at Cincinnati (1-8)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Clouds giving away to sun, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 15

Mean:           Philadelphia by 13

Bias:             Philadelphia by 11

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 9½         -385/+355  

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     Cincinnati +19½ in 10-point teaser, Cincinnati +22½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser  

Cincinnati had the week off, while the Eagles played the Giants in a crucial game.  There could be a small case made that the Bengals were in a great position to pull off a big upset this week.

 

Carson Palmer is still not able to play, and that will keep the Bengals from pulling out a second consecutive win.  However, Cincinnati has all the other breaks in their favor, and I think they will compete in this game.  The Eagles have too much talent to lose in what is certainly a must-win game for them.  I am looking at a 31-17 win for Philly, but I won’t give 9½ points to the home team in this game.

 

New Orleans (4-5) at Kansas City (1-8)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         New Orleans by 8

Mean:           New Orleans by 6

Bias:             New Orleans by 6

Vegas:        New Orleans by 5½        -240/+200  

Ov/Un:        49½

Strategy:     Kansas City +15½ in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +18½ in 13-point teaser, Over 36½ in 13-point teaser     

The Chiefs keep coming up with surprisingly good games when you least expect it from them.  Half of their losses could have gone the other way.  New Orleans qualifies as a team the Chiefs can scare the daylights out of before losing late.

 

Drew Brees is on pace to smash the all time passing yardage record for a single season; at the rate he is going, he will top 5,300 yards.  He is averaging more than 40 passing attempts per game, but he may get a small break this week.  Reggie Bush could return to action to help take the heat off the passing game, and the Chiefs are giving up more than 170 rushing yards per game at an average of more than five yards per attempt.

 

I am going with the Chiefs in a Teaser because I don’t believe New Orleans can hold them under 20 points.  The Saints may control the ball on the ground more this week, and it may lead them to winning 28-20 rather than 37-32.

 

Detroit (0-9) at Carolina (7-2)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 22

Mean:          Carolina by 16

Bias:             Carolina by 22

Vegas:         Carolina by 14          -800/+650

Ov/Un:        39½

Strategy:     Carolina -800 (as part of money line parlay), Carolina -4 in 10-point teaser, Carolina -1 in 13-point teaser, Over 29½ in 10-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser 

Detroit has Daunte Culpepper tossing the pigskin now, but I don’t expect much difference in the results of Lions’ games.  That said, Detroit has actually been much more competitive on the road than at home this season.  While I don’t see them scaring Carolina this week, I would not be surprised to see the Lions covering the two touchdown spread this week.

 

Jake Delhomme had a terrible game last week in Oakland, and you can expect him to rebound this week.  He won’t have to throw the ball all over the field, and that should help him improve his accuracy.  Look for him to take advantage of some mismatches when the Lions try to throw the kitchen sink at him.  The Carolina ground game should top their 119 yards per game rushing average by at least 30 if not 50 yards.

 

I think Carolina has a 95% chance of winning this game and a 55% chance of winning by more than two touchdowns.  So, I am selecting the Panthers as part of a money line parlay, but I won’t take them and give 14 points to a team that has lost its most recent road games by four, seven, and two points.

 

Minnesota (5-4) at Tampa Bay (6-3)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 6

Mean:          Tampa Bay by 4

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 5

Vegas:         Tampa Bay by 3        -185/+165

Ov/Un:        38½

Strategy:     Tampa Bay -3, Tampa Bay -185, Tampa Bay +7 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 28½ in 10-point teaser, Over 25½ in 13-point teaser    

The Vikings have a chance to take command in the NFC North if they can pull off the mild upset, and Green Bay beats Chicago.  If they lose, then they will be on the outside looking in.  The Vikings’ schedule is tricky the rest of the way, and I don’t believe they will win the division if they are 5-5 after this week.

 

Tampa Bay is a team that could be great but seems to always misfire in one area.  When their offense plays well, their defense seems to slip.  A great defensive performance seems to coincide with difficulty with their offense.  Therefore, almost all of their games are nip and tuck affairs that go to the final gun.

 

Things could be looking up for Tampa Bay starting this week.  Cadillac Williams has been activated, and he should play some this week.  If he can run the ball five times for 20 yards, it could allow Earnest Graham to rest just enough to keep him effective.

 

The weather is going to be ideal for football, and I look for the home team to move to 7-3.  I’m going with the Bucs giving three, on the money line, and in the teasers.  The ideal weather should lead to both teams topping 20 points and definitely topping 17, which is good enough to win at both 10 and 13 point teasers.

 

 

St. Louis (2-7) at San Francisco (2-7)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 70’s

 

PiRate:         San Francisco by 11

Mean:           San Francisco by 6

Bias:             San Francisco by 8

Vegas:        San Francisco by 7          -265/+245

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     St. Louis +17 in 10-point teaser, St. Louis +20 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser   

Personally, I am fed up with the 49ers.  A head football coach once denigrated his team publicly by saying they didn’t know how to win; that applied aptly to this team.  Even facing the lowly Rams, I am hesitant to pick the 49ers to win this game.  Marc Bulger could torch the secondary and lead his team to a road win.  Should San Francisco figure out a way to win this game, I cannot see them doing so by double digits.  Therefore, I believe that taking those dreadful Rams in the teasers is one of the best selections of the week.  I have added the Under 58 teaser option only as a last choice to fill out a 13-point parlay.  My guess at the final score will be something like 24-21 to 28-21 with both teams having about a 50-50 chance of winning.  Having Steven Jackson back for the Rams is my insurance policy on this pick.

 

Arizona (6-3) at Seattle (2-7)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Cloudy, light wind, temperature near 55

 

PiRate:         Arizona by 8

Mean:           Arizona by 5

Bias:             Arizona by 7

Vegas:        Arizona by 3      -140/+130       

Ov/Un:        47½

Strategy:     Seattle +13 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +16 in 13-point teaser

This is a serious trap game this week.  Seattle is primed to pull off a big shocker, and even if they fall short, I believe the Seahawks have a great chance at covering if you give them an extra 10 or 13 points.

 

Arizona had a Monday night game, and they will be traveling 1,500 miles north on short rest.  More importantly, it looks like Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch will both play this week, and that makes Seattle seven to 10 points better offensively.

 

Tennessee (9-0) at Jacksonville (4-5)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature falling from 60 to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 8

Mean:          Tennessee by 4

Bias:            Tennessee by 7

Vegas:         Tennessee by 3        -145/+125

Ov/Un:        39½

Strategy:     Jacksonville +13 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 29½ in 10-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser

The first time these teams played, it was the opening week of the season.  Vince Young threw two interceptions, and the Titans appeared to be on their way to an 0-1 start.  Then, Young buried his head on the bench and almost did not go back in the game.  A couple plays later, he suffered a sprained knee, and Kerry Collins entered the game.  He quickly tossed a touchdown pass, and the Titans began their 9-0 start with a revived offense.

 

Jacksonville was supposed to have an offense that could not be stopped or contained.  Instead, the Jaguars have looked inept some weeks.  Losses to Cleveland and Cincinnati have ruined their chances for making the playoffs this season.  Beating Tennessee would be their big game of the year.  Tennessee has been their nemesis through the years, and an upset over their hated rival would make their season.

 

This game has been moved to 4:15 for national television, and I am expecting the motivated Jags to come out and make this game a hard-fought war for 60 minutes.  It could come down to a last play field goal attempt to decide it all.  Even if it goes to overtime, and the highest spread possible becomes six points, it won’t be enough to hurt us if we take Jacksonville in the teasers.  I am also teasing the totals here, because in the twenties, it isn’t asking that much for the teams to do.  A special teams or defensive big play could add an extra touchdown to the final score.

 

San Diego (4-5) at Pittsburgh (6-3)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow flurries and possible snow showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping through the 30’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 9

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 7

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 6

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 4        -225/+185

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     Pittsburgh -225, Pittsburgh +6 in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +9 in 13-point teaser

I almost picked the Steelers to cover the spread without the use of a teaser in this game, and I think if the snow is anything more than flurries, Pittsburgh will win by more than a touchdown.

 

San Diego is another one of those West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone, and like I wrote above, no West Coast team has won a game in the Eastern Time Zone this year.

 

I am of the belief that Norv Turner is an excellent offensive coordinator who does not get the most out of his talent as a head coach.  San Diego is a bigger disappointment this year than Cleveland or Dallas.  I really cannot see them winning this game, and at 4-6, Turner’s seat will begin to heat up.  Pittsburgh has lost their last two home games, and I look for that to change this week.  Call it a 20-14 home win in Steeltown.

 

Dallas (5-4) at Washington (6-3)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature falling from the upper to lower 40’s

                    

PiRate:         Washington by 2

Mean:           Washington by 2

Bias:             Washington by 2

Vegas:        Tossup         -120/+110

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     Dallas +10 in 10-point teaser, Dallas +13 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser 

This is a great rivalry game.  You can throw out the past when these two teams hook up.  The Redskins won in Texas Stadium, but that means little in their chances to go for the sweep.

 

What does mean a lot in deciding this week’s outcome is the status of some key personnel on both sides of the ball.  For Dallas, it revolves around Tony Romo and Felix Jones.  What kind of performance will they be able to display?  For Washington, it looks like Clinton Portis will not play, while Santana Moss plays at less than 100%.  Portis cannot be replaced, and the Cowboys will concentrate their efforts on stopping the Redskin passing attack.

 

I like Dallas’s chances of getting revenge in this game and throwing the NFC East into a three-way tie for second place at 6-4.  If the Cowboys lose, then it is highly unlikely that they will recover to make it in the playoffs as a wildcard team.  So, I am taking the visitors in the teasers.  I believe the final score will be somewhat similar to the final score the first time, only with the Cowboys winning. 

 

Cleveland (3-6) at Buffalo (5-4)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Snow showers, moderate to strong winds, temperature holding steady in the low 30’s

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 2

Mean:           Buffalo by 2

Bias:             Buffalo by 6

Vegas:        Buffalo 6     -225/+185

Ov/Un:        41½  

Strategy:     Buffalo -225, Cleveland +16 in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +19 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser 

What a great time for a Monday night game near the snow capital of the lower 48!  Buffalo should be a winter wonderland as ESPN comes on the air for this game.  Snowfall can be a good friend to those who play teasers.  It tends to even out the score when there is a possible mismatch, and it tends to lead to turnovers that produce points.  It doesn’t have to be bitter cold or a blizzard to affect a game.  Try fielding a high punt in the lights when snow is falling.  It isn’t easy. 

 

So, that is why I am actually teasing the Over and not the Under in this game.  Of course, with Monday night games comes higher scoring, as can be attested by this year’s average Monday night score of 34-20.

 

Another Nice Winning Week Against The Spreads

 

Last week’s picks finished 9-4-0 adding $400 more to the bank account.  For the season, my picks against the spread are now 74-42-6 (63.8%).  The account balance is $2,065.  For the year, my Return on investment is 16.9%.

 

The money line parlay I selected last week produced a winning wager, and I will try using that again this week.  Thanks to the ending off bye weeks for the season, we have 16 games per week for the remainder of the regular season.

 

Last week, I played a little defensively due to weather and injury issues.  This week will only see those factors become more important.

 

Here are my wagers for week 11 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. Tampa Bay -3 vs. Minnesota

2. Pittsburgh -4 vs. San Diego

3. Buffalo -225 vs. Cleveland

4. Tampa Bay -185 vs. Minnesota

5. Pittsburgh -225 vs. San Diego

 

6. Money Line Parlay (-130)

       A. Miami over Oakland

       B. Indianapolis over Houston

       C. Carolina over Detroit

 

7. Money Line Parlay (+220)

       A. Buffalo over Cleveland

       B. Tampa Bay over Minnesota

       C. Pittsburgh over San Diego

 

8. 10-point Teaser

       A. Miami -½ vs. Oakland

       B. Indianapolis +2½ vs. Houston

       C. Jacksonville +13 vs. Tennessee

 

9. 10-point Teaser

       A. Kansas City +15½ vs. New Orleans

       B. Tampa Bay +7 vs. Minnesota

       C. St. Louis +17 vs. San Francisco

 

10. 10-point Teaser

A. Pittsburgh +6 vs. San Diego

       B. Dallas +10 vs. Washington

       C. Cleveland & Buffalo Over 31½

 

11. 13-point Teaser

       A. Chicago +17½ vs. Green Bay

       B. Miami +2½ vs. Oakland

       C. Baltimore +20 vs. New York Giants

       D. Indianapolis +5½ vs. Houston

 

12. 13-point Teaser

       A. Jacksonville +16 vs. Tennessee

       B. Kansas City +18½ vs. New Orleans

       C. Carolina -1 vs. Detroit

       D. Tampa Bay +10 vs. Minnesota

 

13. 13-point Teaser

       A. St. Louis +20 vs. San Francisco

       B. Seattle +16 vs. Arizona

       C. Pittsburgh +9 vs. San Diego

       D. Dallas +13 vs. Washington

 

14. 13-point Teaser

       A. Cleveland & Buffalo Over 28½

       B. Denver & Atlanta Over 37½

       C. Miami & Oakland Over 25

       D. Jacksonville & Tennessee Over 26½

 

15. 13-point Teaser

       A. Denver & Atlanta Under 63½

       B. Carolina & Detroit Over 26½

       C. Tampa Bay & Minnesota Over 25½

       D. Dallas & Washington Over 30½           

     

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week 9 Previews: November 2-3, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Nine

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

 

Current NFL Standings and Ratings

NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA New York 6 – 1 – 0 191 115 107.28 105.97 108.82 2 Washington 6 – 2 – 0 165 145 103.07 103.15 103.81 2 Dallas 5 – 3 – 0 202 184 103.45 102.51 103.76 2 Philadelphia 4 – 3 – 0 194 137 110.42 105.79 108.21 2                         NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Chicago 4 – 3 – 0 196 150 109.13 104.51 103.50 2 Green Bay 4 – 3 – 0 194 159 104.51 103.36 102.34 2 Minnesota 3 – 4 – 0 154 167 101.31 100.19 99.87 2 Detroit 0 – 7 – 0 114 212 87.30 89.81 87.79 3                         NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Carolina 6 – 2 – 0 174 127 107.66 104.87 105.07 2 Tampa Bay 5 – 3 – 0 170 120 108.19 105.13 105.83 2 Atlanta 4 – 3 – 0 153 154 101.68 99.64 101.03 2 New Orleans 4 – 4 – 0 216 195 102.11 101.54 101.50 2                         NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Arizona 4 – 3 – 0 200 171 104.55 103.02 103.48 3 Seattle   2 – 5 – 0 144 184 93.30 95.96 94.42 3 St. Louis 2 – 5 – 0 113 201 89.46 94.10 93.88 2 San Francisco 2 – 6 – 0 171 230 92.04 92.52 91.08 3                         AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Buffalo 5 – 2 – 0 165 143 99.90 100.38 101.42 3 New England 5 – 2 – 0 153 133 97.26 101.67 103.55 2 New York 4 – 3 – 0 182 170 96.97 98.49 100.46 2 Miami 3 – 4 – 0 145 146 100.01 99.10 99.39 2                         AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Pittsburgh 5 – 2 – 0 155 110 107.61 105.24 105.74 2 Baltimore 4 – 3 – 0 134 110 103.02 102.46 101.86 3 Cleveland 3 – 4 – 0 115 123 100.42 100.79 99.21 2 Cincinnati 0 – 8 – 0 104 217 89.16 90.63 90.13 2                         AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Tennessee 7 – 0 – 0 180 87 110.36 108.07 108.05 2 Jacksonville 3 – 4 – 0 141 151 100.30 100.30 99.09 3 Houston 3 – 4 – 0 175 185 98.07 98.98 99.58 3 Indianapolis 3 – 4 – 0 149 162 101.86 100.89 100.12 2                         AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Denver 4 – 3 – 0 173 195 94.48 96.17 97.70 2 San Diego 3 – 5 – 0 224 199 101.39 101.39 100.12 2 Oakland 2 – 5 – 0 107 177 87.70 92.70 90.85 2 Kansas City 1 – 6 – 0 99 193 85.98 90.58 88.28 2

 

NFL Previews-Week Nine

 

Green Bay (4-3) at Tennessee (7-0)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, no wind, temperature near 70

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 8

Mean:           Tennessee by 7

Bias:             Tennessee by 8

Vegas:        Tennessee by 5½     -225/+205

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     Green Bay +5½, Green Bay +15½ in 10-point teaser, Green Bay +18½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31 in 10-point teaser, Over 28 in 13-point teaser    

The Titans are coming off an emotional Monday night win over the Colts, while the Packers are coming off a bye week.  If ever there was a better time to go against a 7-0 home favorite, this would be that week.

 

Tennessee, on paper, looks to be too strong for Green Bay, but I expect a less than stellar performance from the Titans.  The defense will have a harder time stopping Donald Driver and Greg Jennings than they did in stopping the Colts’ receivers.  The Titan passing game faced an old “60 defense” scheme from the Colts Monday night, and still Kerry Collins could not pass for 200 yards.  Look for Green Bay to bring an eighth player into the box and force Collins to beat the Packers through the air.  Green Bay’s secondary is better than Indy’s, and I think they will be ready to hold Tennessee to 17 points or less.

 

Aaron Rodgers should be able to pass for 200 yards in this game, but the Packer running game may be ground to a halt.  Green Bay may not score more than 14 or 17 points either, but that should be enough to cover.

 

Tampa Bay (5-3) at Kansas City (1-6)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in low 70’s

 

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 20

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 13

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 16

Vegas:        Tampa Bay by 9       -400/+350

Ov/Un:        36

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +1 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +4 in 13-point teaser, Over 23 in 13-point teaser

Tampa Bay’s offense came to a crushing hall last week in the Big D, but it should bounce back this week against the moribund Chiefs’ defense.  Kansas City played much better on offense last week against the Jets, and they should come close to matching that output this week.  I think the Chiefs can give the Bucs a good game, but in the end Tampa Bay should be strong enough to emerge with some type of victory.  I expect both teams to top 14 points, so I like teasing the Over, especially at 13 points.

 

Baltimore (4-3) at Cleveland (3-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in low 50’s

 

PiRate:         Baltimore by 1  

Mean:           Tossup

Bias:             Baltimore by 1

Vegas:        Cleveland by 1½      -125/+105  

Ov/Un:        36

Strategy:     Baltimore +11½ in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +14½ in 13-point teaser, Over 26 in 10-point teaser, Over 23 in 13-point teaser

The Ravens embarrassed the Browns in the first meeting between these two teams.  Cleveland was leading 10-7, and then Derek Anderson threw two touchdown passes-unfortunately to Baltimore defenders.  The Ravens went on to win 28-10.

 

Anderson had possibly his worst day as a pro that day, and he will be ready to show Baltimore he can play much better.  Still, he will have to worry about the Ravens’ pass rush, and that could mean it won’t be a stellar day on the lake.

 

I think Cleveland has a strong chance of winning this game and moving into a 2^nd place tie in the AFC North at 4-4 after starting the season 0-3.  4-4 would put them in the wildcard hunt, especially in the mediocre NFL this season.

 

I cannot see the Browns winning big in this game.  The Ravens could conceivably move into a first place tie this weekend, so they will be ready for bear.  In this tossup contest, I’ll tease the underdog to get what I feel are extra points.  Even though this game won’t be an offensive assault, I think the totals line is a tad conservative, so I’ll tease the Over for the same reason I teased the Ravens.

 

Detroit (0-7) at Chicago (4-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Chicago by 24

Mean:           Chicago by 17

Bias:             Chicago by 18

Vegas:        Chicago by 12½ -600/+500

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     Chicago -2½ in 10-point teaser, Chicago +½ in 13-point teaser, under 56 in 13-point teaser 

This was a major slaughter the first time around in the Motor City, and the Bears should be able to win big again this week.  Should doesn’t mean will, as usually the second time around after a team is blown out, they perform somewhat better.  Detroit blew a chance to pull out the upset at home last week against Washington, so I think the players will be a little down in the dumps this week.  I am almost brazen enough to take Chicago at -600 in the money line, but I cannot pull the lever on that one.  I’ll play it safe and take the Bears in a teaser.

 

I don’t see Detroit scoring more than 17 points in this game, and I don’t see the Bears winning by 30 or more, so I like playing the Under in a 13-point teaser.  A final of 35-20 still wins for us in this one.

 

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo (5-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in low to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 6

Mean:           Buffalo by 5

Bias:             Buffalo by 4

Vegas:         Buffalo by 5½    -220/+200

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     Buffalo -220, Buffalo +4½ in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +7½ in 13-point teaser, Jets +18½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31 in 10-point teaser, Over 28 in 13-point teaser  

This could be the most interesting game of the week.  A Jet win could mean a three-way tie for first come Sunday night.  A Bills win would put them in a commanding position for breaking the long playoff drought.

 

This will be the first game for both teams played in what I call winter-like weather, and when that happens, it usually means the passing game suffers some.  The team with the better running game against the opponent’s run defense usually fares better than expected.  Buffalo has the advantage in this phase, and I think that’s all they will need to emerge with a small victory margin.  I see this one ending 21-17 in favor of the home team.

 

Jacksonville (3-4) at Cincinnati (0-8)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Jacksonville by 9

Mean:          Jacksonville by 8

Bias:            Jacksonville by 7

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 7½         -335/+305

Ov/Un:        40

Strategy:     Jacksonville +2½ in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +5½ in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

Have the Bengals quit on the season?  Since the nine-point loss at Dallas, it looks like the team has just gone through the motions in their three most recent losses.  Scoring just six points against Houston reveals this team has hit rock bottom.  Carson Palmer will not play once again, and the striped-helmets just don’t move the ball without him under center.

 

Jacksonville is on the verge of dropping out of the playoff race.  This is a must win for the Jags, because at 3-5 they will be looking up at too many other teams.  They haven’t possessed the killer instinct.  They play up or down to the competition.  I expect them to play down some this week, and thus I cannot call for them to do to Cinti what the Jets, Steelers, and Texans did in the last three games.  Jacksonville could very well win by 10-14, but they could easily be forced to either come from behind to nip the Bengals or hold off a late rally in order to escape with a win. 

 

I’ll surmise that they will attempt to control the clock and eat up time with long drives, so I’m going to predict a final score of no more than 50 total points.  This is an iffy prediction, and I would only rely on it to fill out the last part of a four-game parlay when you don’t have any other options.

 

Houston (3-4) at Minnesota (3-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Minnesota by 5

Mean:           Minnesota by 3

Bias:             Minnesota by 2

Vegas:        Minnesota by 4½     -210/+180

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Houston +14½ in 10-point teaser, Houston +17½ in 13-point teaser, Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser

After a horrendous 0-4 start amidst the recovery from Hurricane Ike, the Texans have won three straight games to back into a tie for second place in the AFC South.  Minnesota has sputtered like an engine needing a tune-up.  The Vikings are also 3-4, but they look more like a team headed to a 6-10 record, while Houston looks more like a team headed to a 9-7 record.

 

I am not asking the Texans to win this road game, especially since Minnesota had an extra week to prepare.  I am looking for them to keep it close and have a chance to win it in the fourth quarter.  I cannot see a two-touchdown Viking conquest. 

 

I think this could be a 35-31 type game, so I am tempted to tease the Over.  However, 34 points is still a lot even in a 13-point teaser.  Likewise, I am not confident about teasing an Under at 60 points.

 

Arizona (5-2) at St. Louis (2-5)

Time:           1:00PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Arizona by 13

Mean:           Arizona by 7

Bias:             Arizona by 8

Vegas:        Arizona by 3      -155/+135

Ov/Un:        48

Strategy:     St. Louis +13 in 10-point teaser, St. Louis +16 in 13-point teaser, Under 61 in 13-point teaser

Not only is this the return of the former St. Louis team, it is the return of the former Ram quarterback who led the current St. Louis team to its Super Bowl Championship.

 

Both teams were in rough and tough games that went to the wire last week, and both teams enter this game with some possible injury concerns on offense.  That makes me feel comfortable about teasing the Under in this one.  I can see this game being lower scoring than expected, so I also like teasing the home underdog as well.  It wouldn’t shock me to see this one end with a final of 24-17.  If the Rams can pull off the upset, they will actually be in contention to be in contention in the NFC West.  9-7 could be good enough to win this division if St. Louis can win this game.  If the Cardinals win, then they are in great shape.

 

Miami (3-4) at Denver (4-3)

Time:           4:05PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in low 70’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 4

Mean:           Miami by 1

Bias:             Tossup

Vegas:        Denver by 3 -185/+160

Ov/Un:        50½

Strategy:     Denver +7 in 10-point teaser, Denver +10 in 13-point teaser, Miami +13 in 10-point teaser, Miami +16 in 13-point teaser

These two teams are hard to figure out; they are both Jekyll and Hyde teams.  The reason for that is they have potential but not confirmed stars in several key positions.  One week, you see the potential beginning to pay off, while the next week you see just how green these players are.

 

My thoughts on these two teams are that they could play 10 times and all 10 games would be within 10 points either way, and they would have both low and high scoring contests in those 10 tilts.  For that reason, I would stay away from the totals.

 

On the other hand, I find playing both sides on a teaser (especially the 13-point variety) enticing.  I look for this game to be decided on a couple of big plays, and either team could win (although I give Denver about a 60% chance of winning).  My guess is the Broncos could win by as much as 14 points or lose by as much as a TD. 

 

Atlanta (4-3) at Oakland (2-5)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Good chance of rain, strong wind that should affect the game, temperature in the upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Atlanta by 12

Mean:           Atlanta by 5

Bias:             Atlanta by 8

Vegas:        Atlanta by 3       -145/+125

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     Under 54 in 13-point teaser

This is another interesting game.  But first, I must post my annual Raiders’ tribute for their first November game.

 

The autumn wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea
With a rollicking song he sweeps along
swaggering boisterously

His face is weather beaten
He wears a hooded sash
With his silver hat about his head
And a bristly black mustache

He growls as he storms the country
A villain big and bold
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake
As he robs them of their gold

The autumn wind is a Raider
Pillaging just for fun
He’ll knock you around and upside down
And laugh when he’s conquered and won

—Steve Sabol (NFL Films)

 

Unfortunately, the autumn wind emanating from Oakland, California, these days is nothing but a bunch of hot air.  The dirty birds from the Deep South may be the team pillaging for fun this week.  Atlanta is a strong wildcard contender, and first year head coach Mike Smith is a strong contender for Coach of the Year.

 

My guess here is that Atlanta will try to win this game with defense and ball-control and not force Matt Ryan to play like John Elway in order to win.  I don’t know if this will be successful, but I do believe it will lead to both teams scoring less than 24 points.  That makes a teasing of the Under look inviting.

 

Dallas (5-3) at New York Giants (6-1)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature in the upper 50’s

 

 

PiRate:         Giants by 6

Mean:           Giants by 5

Bias:             Giants by 7

Vegas:        Giants by 9        -400/+325

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     Dallas +19 in 10-point teaser, Dallas +22 in 13-point teaser, Under 54 in 13-point teaser

 

No Tony Romo.  Maybe no Felix Jones or Jason Witten either.  Dallas would have a tough time beating the Giants at the Meadowlands with those three at full strength, so their chances of doing so with Brad Johnson at quarterback and possibly missing two key contributors doesn’t bode well for the Cowboys. 

 

The Giants are rather healthy heading into this game, and they could end remove one of their three NFC East challengers from serious contention. 

 

New York should win and push Dallas into last place in the division, but I don’t expect them to blow the Cowboys off the field.  What’s more likely to happen is that New York will get the lead in the first half and then play conservatively in the last 30 minutes.  They still have to play at Texas Stadium when Romo should be back, and they don’t need to give Dallas extra incentive in that game.

 

I expect to see the Giants win by 7-15 points this week and keep the total score under 50 points; I expect a score similar to 27-14.

 

Philadelphia (4-3) at Seattle (2-5)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers likely, light wind, temperature in the mid to upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 14

Mean:           Philadelphia by 7

Bias:             Philadelphia by 11

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 6½         -270/+250

Ov/Un:        42½

Strategy:     Seattle +16½ in 10-point teaser, Seattle +19½ in 13-point teaser, Over 29½ in 13-point teaser  

If this game were in Philly, I would have no trouble explaining how the Eagles would claw the Seahawks into the ground.  However, it’s Philly that must travel all the way across the country and take on Seattle in what could be messy field conditions.  Philadelphia has already played once on the West Coast and came away with a high-scoring win over the 49ers.  That final flurry of points was an oddity, and Seattle won’t surrender them.  Thus, I am looking for this game to be played a little more conservatively.

 

Seattle emerged from their slumber last week to annihilate San Francisco.  Returning home this week, I expect them to maintain some of that momentum.  Seneca Wallace had a breakout game as did fullback Leonard Weaver.  The Eagles will have to concentrate extra coverage to stop this combo from hooking up on any more long TD plays, and that should allow Seattle to run the ball with some success.  Weaver may be more valuable as a receiver than as a run blocker.

 

This is a must win game for both teams.  2-6 teams rarely recover in the second half to make the playoffs, so Seattle knows it has its back against the wall.  Philadelphia is in the toughest division in the NFL, and 4-4 is good enough for last place.

 

I’ll take the home team in the teasers and also tease the Over, as I expect both teams to top 17 points.

 

New England (5-2) at Indianapolis (3-4)

Time:           8:15PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature dropping from low 60’s to the low 50’s if roof is open, but it is likely to be closed

             

PiRate:         Indianapolis by 7

Mean:           Indianapolis by 1

Bias:             New England by 1

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 6     -260/+220

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     New England +16 in 10-point teaser, New England +19 in 13-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser

I don’t like this game.  It’s not the teams, it’s their collective health.  Between these two, you could stage a football game inside a hospital, especially on the Colts’ side of the field.

 

There is no way to know for sure (Thursday evening) which of the injured players will be available, and there are too many quality Colts on the fence as of now.  So, I cannot really make an official guess at the score for this game.  I do know that even at 100% healthy, I do not see the Colts winning by two touchdowns.  So, using the opinion that Indianapolis will be somewhat hampered with injuries, I see the Patriots either winning this game or losing by single digits.  Either way, New England should cover the spread in the teasers.

 

Peyton Manning should be able to lead his team to 21 or more points win or lose, so I like teasing the Over as well.

 

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Washington (5-2)

Time:           8:30PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature dropping from low 50’s to upper 40’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 3

Mean:           Tossup

Bias:             Tossup

Vegas:        Washington by 1½         -125/+105

Ov/Un:        36½

Strategy:     Washington +8½ in 10-point teaser, Washington +11½ in 13-point teaser, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser 

Every Monday night game has been high scoring this season, and I cannot find any reason to expect anything different this week.  Both teams should score in excess of 17 points in this game, so the relatively low Over/Under line makes this one appealing as an Over tease. 

 

I like the home team as a touchdown plus underdog as well, so teasing the Redskins is another option.

 

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Loses A Little On A Break-Even Week

 

Last week’s picks finished 7-7-3.  Of course, when you go .500 picking games, it is a losing week.  The picks lost $150.  For the season, my picks are now 59-35-6 (62.8%).  The account balance is $1,525.  For the year, my Return on investment is down to 15.3%, or about half of what it was two weeks ago.

 

Both the straight wager and teaser picks broke even.  The straight picks finished 4-4-2 and the teasers finished 3-3-1.

 

This week, I am going to play fewer games and try to find the games that I feel strongest about in my chances to be correct.

 

Here are my wagers for week nine (all wagered to win $100):

 

• 1. Green Bay +5½ vs. Tennessee
• 2. Buffalo -220 vs. New York Jets

 

• 3. 10-point Teaser
• A. Green Bay & Tennessee Over 31
• B. Tampa Bay +1 vs. Kansas City
• C. Baltimore +11½ vs. Cleveland

 

• 4. 10-point Teaser
• A. Chicago -2½ vs. Detroit
• B. Buffalo + 4½ vs. New York Jets
• C. Houston +14½ vs. Minnesota

 

• 5. 10-point Teaser
• A. New York Jets & Buffalo Over 31
• B. Denver +7 vs. Miami
• C. Seattle +16½ vs. Philadelphia

 

• 6. 13-point Teaser
• A. Green Bay +18½ vs. Tennessee
• B. Tampa Bay +4 vs. Kansas City
• C. Baltimore +14½ vs. Cleveland
• D. Chicago +½ vs. Detroit

 

• 7. 13-point Teaser
• A. Green Bay & Tennessee Over 28
• B. Tampa Bay & Kansas City Over 23
• C. Chicago & Detroit Under 56
• D. New York Jets & Buffalo Over 28

 

• 8. 13-point Teaser
• A. Houston +17½ vs. Minnesota
• B. St. Louis & Arizona Under 61
• C. Denver +10 vs. Miami
• D. Dallas +22 vs. New York Giants

 

• 9. 13-point Teaser
• A. Seattle +19½ vs. Philadelphia
• B. New England +19 vs. Indianapolis
• C. New England & Indianapolis Over 31
• D. Washington & Pittsburgh Over 23½

         

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

 

NOTE: Due to the scheduling of Thursday games for the next few weeks, expect this column to run on Thursday afternoons during that time.

PiRate Ratings Week 8 NFL Previews: October 26-27, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Eight

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

 

Current NFL Standings and Ratings

NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA New York 5 – 1 – 0 170 101 106.25 103.64 106.38 2 Washington 5 – 2 – 0 140 128 103.71 102.63 102.67 2 Dallas 4 – 3 – 0 189 175 102.40 101.04 101.49 2 Philadelphia 3 – 3 – 0 167 123 109.63 103.82 105.29 2                           NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Chicago 4 – 3 – 0 196 150 108.85 121.83 107.54 2 Green Bay 4 – 3 – 0 194 159 103.74 102.42 103.83 2 Minnesota 3 – 4 – 0 154 167 100.81 99.70 99.10 2 Detroit 0 – 6 – 0 97 187 85.66 89.24 87.98 3                           NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Tampa Bay 5 – 2 – 0 161 107 109.14 105.23 106.68 2 Carolina 5 – 2 – 0 147 104 107.82 104.20 105.01 2 Atlanta 4 – 2 – 0 139 127 102.06 99.97 101.21 2 New Orleans 3 – 4 – 0 179 163 102.32 100.35 100.14 2                           NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Arizona 4 – 2 – 0 177 144 105.41 102.42 102.97 3 St. Louis 2 – 4 – 0 96 178 88.55 93.55 93.62 2 San Francisco 2 – 5 – 0 158 196 94.26 93.76 94.81 3 Seattle 1 – 5 – 0 110 171 90.36 93.22 92.72 3                           AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Buffalo 5 – 1 – 0 149 118 101.53 101.40 103.79 3 New England 4 – 2 – 0 130 116 98.35 101.18 101.91 2 New York 3 – 3 – 0 154 146 99.23 98.89 98.62 2 Miami 2 – 4 – 0 120 130 98.85 96.86 98.14 2                           AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Pittsburgh 5 – 1 – 0 141 89 108.55 105.95 107.90 2 Baltimore 3 – 3 – 0 105 100 102.40 100.85 100.25 3 Cleveland 2 – 4 – 0 92 106 99.63 98.88 98.10 2 Cincinnati 0 – 7 – 0 98 182 91.92 91.98 90.98 2                           AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Tennessee 6 – 0 – 0 149 66 109.91 107.60 107.30 2 Indianapolis 3 – 3 – 0 128 131 101.39 100.27 101.13 2 Jacksonville 3 – 3 – 0 124 128 100.99 100.83 102.37 3 Houston 2 – 4 – 0 140 179 94.24 96.66 96.58 3                           AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Denver 4 – 3 – 0 173 195 95.30 96.47 97.96 2 San Diego 3 – 4 – 0 192 162 102.88 101.48 102.87 2 Oakland 2 – 4 – 0 97 148 89.29 93.41 93.14 2 Kansas City 1 – 5 – 0 75 165 85.39 90.24 89.93 2

 

NFL Previews-Week Eight

 

San Diego (3-4) vs. New Orleans (3-4) (at London)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Light rain expected, light winds, temperature falling from the upper 50’s to the low 50’s

 

PiRate:         San Diego by 1 

Mean:           San Diego by 1

Bias:             San Diego by 3

Vegas:        San Diego by 3         -155/+145

Ov/Un:        46

Strategy:     Over 36 in 10-point teaser, Over 33 in 13-point teaser

Tally Ho!  These two teams will play in Wembley Stadium in London Sunday afternoon/evening London time.  I don’t like it when the usual tendencies for games have been altered.  Both teams have gotten out of their routines, and there isn’t enough prior history (just one year to be exact) to look back and discover patterns.  My advice is to leave this game alone, but the only thing close to safe is to look for a high scoring game with a lot of passing. 

 

LaDainian Tomlinson should be close to 100% for the Chargers, but I expect him to get fewer carries than normal in order to protect the injured toe. 

 

Drew Brees should have a 300-yard passing game, and for that reason I think these teams will combine to score more than 40 points.

 

Kansas City (1-5) at New York Jets (3-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, moderate winds, temperature in upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Jets by 16

Mean:           Jets by 11

Bias:             Jets by 11

Vegas:        Jets by 13          -610/+485

Ov/Un:        39

Strategy:     Under 52 in 13-point teaser

The Chiefs’ offense has gone into hibernation.  Until late in the fourth quarter last week, Kansas City had gone eight quarters without scoring a point.  Brodie Croyle and backup Damon Huard are now both done for the season.  Third stringer Tyler Thigpen is completing just 42% of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt.  Now, with Larry Johnson inactive again for this game, what can the Chiefs do this week?  It’s not like their defense will bail them out.  They are the 31^st-rated stop troops in the NFL with a run defense that is on pace to give up more than 3,300 yards rushing.

 

The Jets had engine failure last week in Oakland, and I don’t see that problem occurring this week.  Brett Favre may not have to raise his arm too many times if Thomas Jones is his usual self.  He rushed for 159 yards last week and could easily equal or top that this week.

 

Because Coach Eric Mangini may decide to mimic Vince Lombardi and plan for his offense to grind out 80-yard drives that take 15 plays and half a quarter to score, the Jets may actually have difficulty covering the line.  I wouldn’t fool with a 13-point spread.  Instead, I am looking at a tease of the totals.  I cannot see Kansas City scoring 17 points in this game, and I cannot see the Jets topping 35.  The final score could be as low as 24-7 and as high as 35-14.  So, I like “Under 52” as part of a 13-point teaser.

 

Atlanta (4-2) at Philadelphia (3-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate winds, temperature near 60

 

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 10  

Mean:           Philadelphia by 6

Bias:             Philadelphia by 6

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 9½         -380/+335

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Philadelphia +½ in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +3½ in 13-point teaser, Over 35 in 10-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser

This should be quite an entertaining game, and the Falcons believe they can pull off the upset and move on the top half of the playoff bubble.  The Eagles have all their offensive weapons healthy, and Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and company should find success moving the ball in this game.

 

There is one big factor in this game that may not reveal itself until game time.  Falcon rookie sensation Sam Baker may not be able to play, and he is a key reason why quarterback Matt Ryan has been able to pass like he is a seasoned veteran.  In the one game where Baker was unable to go, the Falcons’ offense scored just nine points.

 

Without Baker, Atlanta cannot win this game.  With a healthy Baker, they can keep it close and have a shot at the upset.

 

Either way, I like the Eagles to win the game, so I’ll take Philly and points in the teasers.  Teasing the Totals could be iffy due to the possibility of the Falcons not being able to score without Baker in the lineup.  Without him, they could struggle to reach double digits.  If they score just 10 points, the Eagles would have to score 23 to satisfy a 13-point teaser and 26 to satisfy a 10-point teaser.  Only tease the Over if you already know Baker will start and be able to play at near 100% effectiveness.

 

I could see a 13-point tease of the Under working for us.  Under 58 would be very playable even if Baker starts.  Atlanta’s defense should hold the Eagles to 28 points or less, and their offense won’t score 30 points.

 

Buffalo (5-1) at Miami (2-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain likely, light winds, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 1

Mean:           Buffalo by 3

Bias:             Buffalo by 4

Vegas:        Buffalo by 1 -120/+100

Ov/Un:        42½

Strategy:     Miami +11 in 10-point teaser, Miami +14 in 13-point teaser, Buffalo +9 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +12 in 13-point teaser

This is an intriguing game.  Buffalo’s 5-1 record is questionable when you consider that four of those wins came over teams buried deep in the standings.  The one lone quality win came over a mediocre Jacksonville team, and the one loss came on the road at Arizona.

 

Miami has that extraordinary win at New England when they sprung the single wing offense on an unsuspecting defense.  In the next game, a trick play pulled out the win over San Diego.  Baltimore stuffed the offense last week.  Buffalo’s defense is not in the Ravens’ class, but it is strong enough to take those pet plays away.

 

The Bills’ running game has been disappointing this year, while quarterback Trent Edwards has been a pleasant surprise.  Miami’s defense isn’t strong against the pass.  That worries me this week.  I don’t really like any of the plays in this game, as I see a huge deviation in possible outcomes.  I only list the teasers above, but I don’t heartily endorse any of them.  Miami could win by a touchdown, and the Bills could win by two touchdowns.  The score could be 28-24 or 14-10. 

 

St. Louis (2-4) at New England (4-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, considerable wind (enough to affect game), temperature in the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         New England by 12

Mean:           New England by 10

Bias:             New England by 10

Vegas:         New England by 7    -315/+285

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     New England -7, New England -315, New England +3 in 10-point teaser, New England +6 in 13-point teaser, Under 56 in 13-point teaser

Break up the Rams!  Any team that can blow out the Cowboys by 20 points must be a force to be reckoned with.  Is Jim Haslett a super genius who can turn the weakest team in 20 years into the strongest team of 2008?  In back-to-back weeks, the Rams won at Washington and destroyed the team expected to waltz to the Super Bowl.

 

New England is the perfect embodiment of a Jekyll and Hyde team.  They lose big to the Dolphins and blow out the Broncos.  They hold the Jets’ offense to 10 points and give up 30 to the struggling Chargers.

 

I believe the weather will play an important role in this game.  The Rams are accustomed to playing indoors, and this game is going to be played with a stiff wind and cool temperatures.  This will be no big deal for the home team.

 

New England’s offense woke up last week against Denver, and I don’t see the Monday night effect hurting them this week.  They should be able to score 24 to 30 points against St. Louis even with a renewed defensive strength since the change of coaches.

 

I see the Pats winning by double digits and holding Marc Bulger and company to 17 points or less.  A score of 28-14 is quite possible, so I like a tease of the Under as well as the Patriots straight up and giving a touchdown.   New England would have to score more than 42 points to ruin a 13-point tease if the Rams score just two touchdowns.  Even a score of 35-21 wouldn’t beat us.  I would be shocked if the Pats don’t run the ball 35 or more times in this game, so total plays should be reduced.

 

Arizona (4-2) at Carolina (5-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the mid 60’s

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 4

Mean:          Carolina by 4

Bias:             Carolina by 4

Vegas:        Carolina by 4     -200/+170

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     Carolina -4, Carolina -200, Carolina +6 in 10-point teaser, Carolina +9 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 13-point teaser

This game could be an NFC playoff preview.  Arizona is in complete control in the West, while Carolina is on pace to qualify as a wildcard or possible champion of the South Division.

 

The Cardinals have lost both times they have ventured into the Eastern Time Zone.  Their defense faltered both times.  This will be the toughest opponent of the three eastern teams they will have played.

 

Carolina may have the best home field advantage so far this season.  Their average score in Bank of America Stadium is 27-8, while their average road game score is 13-24.

 

Arizona had a week off, so that makes this one a bit tougher to call.  I still think the Panthers have a decided advantage in this contest.  Their pass defense should hold Kurt Warner about 75 yards below his average, and the Cardinals’ running game is not strong enough to take up the slack.  Jake Delhomme should top 200 passing yards and lead his offense to 24 or more points.  It adds up to a touchdown or more victory, so I like Carolina straight up and giving four points.

 

Oakland (2-4) at Baltimore (3-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 60

 

PiRate:         Baltimore by 16

Mean:           Baltimore by 10

Bias:             Baltimore by 10

Vegas:        Baltimore by 7          -325/+295

Ov/Un:        36

Strategy:     Baltimore -325, Baltimore +3 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +6 in 13-point teaser, Under 49 in 13-point teaser

Is their any possibility that JaMarcus Russell can solve the Ravens’ pass defense and avoid getting clobbered by their pass rush?  Will Darren McFadden be able to play this week?  Even if he can go, I doubt he will carry the ball more than eight times.  Ray Lewis and his band of mad men will make mincemeat out of Oakland’s offense.

 

The big question mark for Baltimore is who will line up at the wideout spots this week.  Yamon Figurs, Derrick Mason, and Demetrius Williams may all miss this game.  Running back Willis McGahee should play, but he won’t be at full strength. 

 

I expect a low scoring game, and Baltimore knows how to win when they score just 10-14 points.  I could see a score as low as 13-10 and as high as 21-17.  I don’t like the spread, but I think Baltimore has better than an 80% chance of winning.  Therefore, I like the money line option as well as getting the Ravens and points in the teasers.  Obviously, teasing the Under at 49 looks inviting as well.  I just cannot see a final score of 27-23 with both teams being hit with injuries on the offensive side.

 

Washington (5-2) at Detroit (0-6)

Time:           1:00PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Washington by 15

Mean:           Washington by 10

Bias:             Washington by 12

Vegas:        Washington by 7½         -315/+285

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Detroit +7½, Detroit +17½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +20½ in 13-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

This is my pick as trap game of the week.  Detroit is bound to luck into at least one win this season, and this could be that week.  The Redskins have been quite fortunate to win close games every week.  They seem to play to the quality of the opposition.  Their offense has gone south the last two weeks against the Rams and Browns, two teams not noted for excellence in defense.

 

Detroit has nothing to lose except maybe the rights to Tim Tebow if they win one too many games this year.  With the loss of Roy Williams and Jon Kitna, the Lions changed their strategy last week against Houston.  Calvin Johnson was used more like Bob Hayes was used by the Cowboys in the late 1960’s.  Johnson ran deep routes, while Mike Furrey became the possession receiver.  It worked to some extent, and it opened some holes for the running game.  Dan Orlovsky’s passing line looked like one from the 1960’s AFL.

 

Washington’s offense lives or dies with the running of Clinton Portis.  Portis could rush the ball 25 times and pick up 125 yards in this game, and the Redskins will still have to score with their passing game to win this one.

 

The numbers add up to a huge Washington win, but I believe the numbers will give away some to intangibles this week.  Call it a gut instinct, but I think Detroit will keep this one close and have a chance to win it in the final period.

 

Tampa Bay (5-2) at Dallas (4-3)

Time:           1:00PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 5

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 2

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 3

Vegas:        Dallas by 2½     -140/+120

Ov/Un:        40½

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +12½ in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +15½ in 13-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser

The Dallas defense has fallen on rough times, and head coach Wade Phillips will be calling the defensive plays this week.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to lower the score of this game by complimenting his defensive play-calling with a time-consuming, conservative offensive game plan.

 

Tampa Bay is primed to take over the label of Super Bowl favorite this week.  A Buccaneer win would definitely place them at the top of the NFC pecking order, especially if the Giants lose at Pittsburgh.

 

Even if the Bucs cannot pull off the mild road upset, I see them keeping this game close.  Dallas was only able to beat Cincinnati by nine points at Texas Stadium, so there’s no reason to believe they can beat Tampa Bay by double digits without Tony Romo.

 

Tampa Bay is definitely one of the top three teams in the NFC and top six in the NFL.  I love the chance to get them and double digit points in any game at any location.  So, I’ll take Jon Gruden’s team and a boatload of points.  Also, I think both teams will at least reach 14 points, so I like teasing the Over as well.

 

Cleveland (2-4) at Jacksonville (3-3)

Time:           4:05 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 70’s

 

PiRate:         Jacksonville by 4

Mean:           Jacksonville by 5

Bias:             Jacksonville by 7

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 7      -315/+285

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Cleveland +17 in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +20 in 13-point teaser, Under 55 in 13-point teaser

Welcome to Staphgate.  The medical news coming out of Cleveland this week has overshadowed the team’s on-the-field performance.  It could foretell a Browns’ collapse, but it could also cause the team to rally and play a fantastic 60 minutes of football.

 

Jacksonville may be the most boring team in the league unless you are an old Ohio State football fan who likes three yards and a cloud of dust football.  Not having receivers Matt Jones and Mike Walker means the Jags will run the ball even more than the norm.  Look for backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to combine for 30 attempts this week.

 

Cleveland has actually been playing decent football the last couple of weeks, and they could pull off another surprise or two in the coming weeks.  The one problem this week is that Jacksonville has enjoyed an extra week of preparation.  While I see the Jags winning this game, I am not sure they will be able to win big.  Their biggest win to date is a seven point victory over Denver.

 

I like, but don’t love, taking the Browns in teasers.  Because there could be more running than normal in this game, I also like teasing the Under at 55.  I could see this game ending in a 27-20 score at a maximum.

 

Cincinnati (0-7) at Houston (2-4)

Time:           4:05PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 80’s

 

 

PiRate:         Houston by 5

Mean:           Houston by 8

Bias:             Houston by 9

Vegas:        Houston by 9½        -380/+335

Ov/Un:        44½

Strategy:     Houston -380, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

 

This game was supposed to be played the week Hurricane Ike struck the Lone Star State.  At the time, Cincinnati would have had a much better chance to win this game.  Now, Houston enters this contest on a two-game winning streak, while the Bengals have more than likely folded their hand for the season.  The Texans are almost double digit favorites.

 

The key stat for this game is the difference in the Bengals’ offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback instead of Carson Palmer.  With Fitzpatrick running the team, Cincinnati has averaged 12 points per game.  In Palmer’s four games, the Bengals averaged only 15.5 points per game, but they competed in those games against the likes of Baltimore, Tennessee, the Giants, and Dallas. 

 

This will actually be the first weaker than average defense Cincinnati will face this season.  I look for Fitzpatrick to lead the orange and black north of the 20-point barrier.  However, the Bengals are hurting on the other side of the ball, and they will give up considerably more than 20 points to an improving offense.  The Texans have average about 28 points per game the last four weeks against defenses that are mostly better than Cincinnati’s.

 

I could see this game being decided late, but I think Houston will make it three straight victories.  I don’t like the line, so I recommend the money line.  I am looking at a 28-21 score here, so I believe the totals can be teased safely.

 

New York Giants (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-1)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to near 50

 

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 4

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 4

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 4

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 3        -140/+130

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Pittsburgh -3, Pittsburgh -140, Under 55 in 13-point teaser

This is the game of the week and could be a preview of the Super Bowl.  I tend to think the Giants will not make it through the playoffs this year, but that is beyond the point this week.

 

In my opinion, the Steelers are capable of finishing 13-3 or even 14-2 and earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Their defense will give up less than 250 points, and their offense will top 400 when the season ends.  Running back Willie Parker should return to the field this week.  Ben Roethlisberger is playing like an all-pro, and Hines Ward is playing with a chip on his shoulder.

 

The Giants have been relying on Brandon Jacobs to take enough heat off Eli Manning, and it has worked most weeks.  Jacobs will not run the ball for 80 yards in this game, and Manning will have to win it with a big aerial assault.  I don’t think he can pull it off.  Call it a 20-13 win for the black and gold.

 

Seattle (1-5) at San Francisco (2-5)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid to upper 70’s

                    

PiRate:         San Francisco by 7

Mean:           San Francisco by 4

Bias:             San Francisco by 5

Vegas:        San Francisco by 5   -230/+190

Ov/Un:        40½

Strategy:     San Francisco -230, San Francisco +5 in 10-point teaser, San Francisco +8 in 13-point teaser

Here, we have the initial second meeting of the season for divisional rivals.  The 49ers won the first meeting in Seattle, but things have changed since then.  Mike Nolan was shown the door last week after San Francisco lost at the Giants.  The interim coach is former Bears’ great Mike Singletary.  Offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who directed the Rams to a Super Bowl, was passed over.  Now, take into consideration that lame-duck Seahawks’  coach Mike Holmgren has had to dispel rumors all week that he will be the new 49er coach in 2009, and it makes this game much harder to diagnose. 

 

Which of these teams will be more ready to play?  I think San Francisco will play with more emotion in the early stages of the Singletary administration.  The players will fear him if they don’t bust their butts on every play.  Martz will still have full authority on the offensive play-calling, so I think the 49ers will be an improved team, at least for the next few weeks.  It adds up to a sweep in this year’s series, but I am not ready to call for a touchdown difference.  Therefore, I am going with the money line as well as taking the home team in teasers.

 

Indianapolis (3-3) at Tennessee (6-0)

Time:           8:30PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from upper 40’s to lower 40’s

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 11     

Mean:           Tennessee by 9

Bias:             Tennessee by 8

Vegas:        Tennessee by 4        -200/+170

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     None

Let’s look at some of the facts for this game.  It is the Monday night game, and we all know how unpredictable those games have proven to be through the years.  It is the top rivalry game in the AFC South, and the two teams play like it is the old Raiders and Chiefs series from the AFL days.  Tennessee has been running over run defenses like they have Walter Payton and Barry Sanders at running back.  Indianapolis has been a feast or famine team with their offense either looking terrific or terrible from week-to-week. 

 

The Colts could score 28 points and pick up 250-300 passing yards, but they could easily watch LenDale White and Chris Johnson combine for 250 or more rushing yards.  Indianapolis hasn’t been able to stop enemy rushing attacks this year.

 

I just don’t like any possible plays here this week.  I think Indianapolis could spoil the Titans’ perfect record if Peyton Manning plays like he did against Baltimore, but if he is not on his game and has a repeat performance of last week’s game in Green Bay, this game could be ugly.  Tennessee would like nothing more than to win by three touchdowns and make the rest of the nation respect them at 7-0. 

 

 

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Suffers First Losing Week

 

It had to happen.  I knew my luck would run out eventually, and last week I suffered my first losing week of the year.  The selections went 8-9 lowering my selections against the spread for the year to 52-28-3 (65%).  The account gave up $310, and that lowered the balance to $1,675.  For the year, my Return on investment is now 20.2%.

 

My straight selections continued to do well, as I was 3-1 on those picks.  The Teasers let me down, as there were too many odd games.  The Bears-Vikings game was a huge surprise to nearly everybody.  How about that Rams-Cowboys game-somebody forgot to tell St. Louis they are no longer the “Greatest Show on Turf.”

 

This week, I am torn between playing straight picks, where I have been quite successful this season and playing the teasers, where I have been successful over the course of several years.  It’s a tough call, but I am going to play more sides than teasers this week.  

 

Here are my wagers for week eight (all wagered to win $100):

 

 1. New England -7 vs. St. Louis

 2. New England -315 vs. St. Louis

 3. Carolina -4 vs. Arizona

 4. Carolina -200 vs. Arizona

 5. Baltimore -325 vs. Oakland

 6. Detroit +7½ vs. Washington

 7. Houston -380 vs. Cincinnati

 8. San Francisco -230 vs. Seattle

 9. Pittsburgh -3 vs. New York Giants

10. Pittsburgh -140 vs. New York Giants

 

11. 10-point teaser parlay

       A. San Diego & New Orleans Over 36

       B. Philadelphia & Atlanta Over 35

       C. Miami +11 vs. Buffalo

 

12. 10-point teaser parlay

       A. New England +3 vs. St. Louis

       B. Carolina +6 vs. Arizona

       C. Carolina & Arizona Over 33½

 

13. 10-point teaser parlay

       A. Detroit +17½ vs. Washington

       B. Tampa Bay +12½ vs. Dallas

       C. San Francisco +5 vs. Seattle

 

14. 13-point teaser parlay

       A. Jets & Kansas City Under 52

       B. Philadelphia +3½ vs. Atlanta

       C. Miami +14 vs. Buffalo

       D. New England +6 vs. St. Louis

 

15. 13-point teaser parlay

       A. Carolina +9 vs. Arizona

       B. Carolina & Arizona Over 30½

       C. Baltimore +6 vs. Oakland

       D. Baltimore & Oakland Under 49

 

16. 13-point teaser parlay

A. Detroit +20½ vs. Washington

B. Detroit & Washington Over 29

C. Tampa Bay +15½ vs. Dallas

D. Tampa Bay & Dallas Over 27½

 

17. 13-point teaser parlay

       A. Cleveland +20 vs. Jacksonville

       B. New York Giants & Pittsburgh Under 55

       C. San Francisco +8 vs. Seattle

       D. Houston & Cincinnati Over 31½  

     

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week 5 NFL Previews: October 5-6, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Five

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

Current NFL Standings & Ratings (alphabetically by division)                                                 NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HTA Dallas Cowboys 3 – 1 – 0 120 89 105.62 110.24 106.84 2 New York Giants 3 – 0 – 0 83 43 106.18 107.84 105.87 2 Philadelphia Eagles 2 – 2 – 0 110 74 104.29 109.20 104.57 2 Washington Redskins 3 – 1 – 0 86 81 106.50 107.53 106.48 2                           NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HTA Chicago Bears 2 – 2 – 0 94 80 108.05 107.28 103.74 2 Detroit Lions 0 – 3 – 0 59 113 77.87 91.85 85.61 3 Green Bay Packers 2 – 2 – 0 109 101 97.22 105.01 102.32 2 Minnesota Vikings 1 – 3 – 0 71 82 98.76 103.91 100.00 2                           NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HTA Atlanta Falcons 2 – 2 – 0 90 83 92.71 99.62 97.33 2 Carolina Panthers 3 – 1 – 0 80 70 107.98 105.90 105.24 2 New Orleans Saints 2 – 2 – 0 111 100 110.15 105.57 105.01 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – 1 – 0 101 78 109.21 107.44 106.40 2                           NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HTA Arizona Cardinals 2 – 2 – 0 106 103 98.46 101.91 100.74 3 St. Louis Rams 0 – 4 – 0 43 147 73.72 89.51 83.12 2 San Francisco 49ers 2 – 2 – 0 94 97 88.35 98.50 97.44 3 Seattle Seahawks 1 – 2 – 0 67 70 90.56 100.41 97.66 3                           AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HTA Buffalo Bills 4 – 0 – 0 109 63 106.64 98.99 104.80 3 Miami Dolphins 1 – 2 – 0 62 64 95.36 94.46 95.63 2 New England Patriots 2 – 1 – 0 49 58 94.77 96.65 101.35 2 New York Jets 2 – 2 – 0 115 116 99.40 96.86 99.92 2                           AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HTA Baltimore Ravens 2 – 1 – 0 65 43 102.14 98.35 102.57 3 Cincinnati Bengals 0 – 4 – 0 52 87 96.20 92.47 91.80 2 Cleveland Browns 1 – 3 – 0 46 78 91.71 93.68 94.15 2 Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – 1 – 0 77 58 100.53 100.52 103.28 2                           AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HTA Houston Texans 0 – 3 – 0 56 99 91.61 93.98 92.99 3 Indianapolis Colts 1 – 2 – 0 52 67 99.93 97.50 101.36 2 Jacksonville Jaguars 2 – 2 – 0 79 85 102.80 98.58 102.75 3 Tennessee Titans 4 – 0 – 0 102 46 111.36 103.45 106.63 2                           AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HTA Denver Broncos 3 – 1 – 0 133 117 108.27 96.97 102.92 2 Kansas City Chiefs 1 – 3 – 0 65 97 85.33 90.22 90.98 2 Oakland Raiders 1 – 3 – 0 78 101 94.83 93.54 94.74 2 San Diego Chargers 2 – 2 – 0 138 112 111.16 101.91 105.68 2

NFL Previews-Week Five

 

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperatures 75-80

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 25  

Mean:           Carolina by 18

Bias:             Carolina by 16

Vegas:        Carolina by 9½         -420/+350  

Ov/Un:        38

Strategy:     Kansas City +19½ in a 10-point teaser, Carolina +½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 28 in a 10-point teaser

 

Kansas City looked like a different team against Denver last week, but the Chiefs won’t run the ball for 200+ yards this week against the Panthers’ defense.  Damon Huard completed a bunch of safe passes last week, but I believe he will have to throw the ball downfield more to give his team a chance to win Sunday.

 

Carolina is not the type of team that will beat an opponent 35-10.  Their 15-point win over Atlanta last week is about the limit of their ability to win.  The Panthers should move to 4-1, but I think this will be an entertaining game for most of the day.  I’m looking for Carolina to win by about 10-14 points in the neighborhood of 27-17 to 27-13.   

 

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1)

Time:           1PM EDT            

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

 

PiRate:        Tennessee by 6

Mean:           Tennessee by 2

Bias:             Tennessee by 1

Vegas:        Tennessee by 3        -150/+130

Ov/Un:        33

Strategy:     Under 43 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +13 in 10-point teaser          

 

If you really loved the old Packers-Vikings games back in the days when Coaches Lombardi and Grant went head-to-head, this is a must-watch game for you.  These two teams are no longer in the same division, but the rivalry is still as strong as ever.  They hate each other, and it will lead to a death-match in Baltimore. 

 

The Ravens just don’t allow teams to run the ball, and Tennessee is one of the most run-dependent teams in the NFL.  The Titans have little if any weakness on the defensive side, and they will throw multiple blitz packages at rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.  I cannot see either team winning by more than a touchdown, so I am playing the home team in a 10-point teaser.  Additionally, since I believe they are going to beat each other up, I expect the final score to be around 17-13.  Keep an eye on the Raven’s injuries in this game.  They must play at Indianapolis next week, and they are almost guaranteed to bounce.  The Titans have a bye next week, and they couldn’t have asked for a better time for it.

 

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)

Time:           1PM EDT            

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Scattered thunderstorms, windy, temperature in low 80’s

 

PiRate:        San Diego by 14

Mean:           San Diego by 5

Bias:             San Diego by 4

Vegas:        San Diego by 6½            -260/+220

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Miami +16½ in 10-point teaser, Over 35 in 10-point teaser  

 

Miami actually used a real single wing offense with unbalanced line two weeks ago against New England, and the Patriots were caught with their pants down.  The Dolphins scored four touchdowns in just a handful of single wing plays, including a brilliant touchdown pass from the hands of tailback Ronnie Brown.  What’s next? Is Brown going to punt out of this formation and become a true triple-threat? 

 

Anything that upsets a teams’ normal weekly routine has an effect on the scoreboard on Sunday.  The Chargers aren’t the best defensive team in the AFC, and they have been forced to prepare for the possibility that the Dolphins will not only use it again this week, but they might have added more to the package.  I expect Miami to run this old-time formation about five to eight times, as any more usage will kill its effectiveness.

 

For these reasons, I think this should be a higher than expected scoring game, and Miami will stay in this game for longer than most people expect.  In fact, if the Dolphins’ defense can force Phillip Rivers to beat them instead of LaDainian Tomlinson, they have a decent shot at another upset.

 

Seattle (1-2) at New York Giants (3-0)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 65

 

PiRate:        New York by 18

Mean:           New York by 9

Bias:             New York by 10

Vegas:        New York by 7          -330/+270

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     New York -7, New York +3 in 10-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser

 

Both teams had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The last time these two teams played a game when both they and their opponents had two weeks to prepare were their two most recent Super Bowl games.  The Giants fared rather well in their Super Bowl, while the Seahawks did not.  That’s not the only reason I like the Giants this week.  Seattle just doesn’t show up when they travel from coast to coast.  Buffalo drilled them 34-10 in week one, so the trend continues in 2008.

 

New York can realistically think about a 6-0 start before heading to Pittsburgh in week eight.  The Giants are winning games in the same manner as they finished 2007-with strong defense and ball-control offense.  They are emulating the Packers of the 1960’s.  This team is not resting on its laurels, and Coach Tom Coughlin, like Vince Lombardi, is too tough of a guy to allow the team to just show up expecting to win.  I think the Giants can win by 14 or more points in this game, so I like them straight up as well as in a teaser.  I’m considering teasing the Over because 34 total points is easily possible in this game.

 

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

 

PiRate:        Pick

Mean:           Philadelphia by 4

Bias:             Pick

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 6            -260/+220

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Washington +16 in 10-point teaser, Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia -260, Philadelphia +4 in 10-point teaser           

 

They’re talking do-or-die up in the City of Brotherly Love.  While the Phillies are getting the headlines, the Eagles cannot afford to begin the season 2-3 in the league’s top division.  It’s possible that three NFC East teams will make the playoffs for the second straight year, but the Eagles could be the odd team out once again if they fall two games behind the other three teams.

 

The Redskins rode an emotional high all week after thumping the Cowboys in Big D last Sunday.  They can only bounce this week, but this will still be a close game.  Washington has played four close games so far, while the Eagles have played three consecutive nail-biters after toying with the St. Louis Lambs.  There’s no reason to think this game will be any different.  It should be exciting, but I think the Eagles will be ready to stay in the playoff hunt.  I’m looking at a final score of Philadelphia 24  Washington 20.

 

Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 85 (this game will be an outdoor game due to roof damage at Reliant Stadium)

 

PiRate:        Indianapolis by 5

Mean:           Indianapolis by 1

Bias:             Indianapolis by 5

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 3            -170/+150

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Indianapolis -3, Indianapolis +7 in 10-point teaser, Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis -170

 

Either the Colts are going to get off the mat and begin to play like the Colts that we all know, or this is going to quickly become a long season in Indy.  They are heading into a shootout in Houston this week, as the Texans finally get a home game.  Reliant Stadium has undergone some changes thank to Ike’s Construction Company.  That blowhard Ike took off the roof and temporarily turned it into an open venue. 

 

If Houston wins this game, Peyton’s place will be last in the AFC South.  I just cannot see that happening, especially when Indianapolis had a week off to prepare.  The Colts should square their record and win this game by at least a touchdown.  I also think this week will see them reaching 28 points for the first time this year, so I like teasing the Over.  My guess at the final score is 28-17 Indianapolis.

 

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Scattered showers, light wind, temperature in low 50’s

 

PiRate:        Green Bay by 7

Mean:           Green Bay by 7

Bias:             Green Bay by 7

Vegas:        No Line        (Aaron Rodgers ?)

Ov/Un:        No Line

Strategy:     N/A

 

As of Friday morning, Aaron Rodgers is still questionable for this game, so no official line has been issued.  Rodgers is probably worth 5-7 points, so if Matt Flynn starts and plays, Green Bay is in trouble.  The Falcons are capable of winning a low-scoring game on the road with two rookie quarterbacks playing.  The weather may also force both teams to stick to a ground game.

 

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:        Chicago by 27

Mean:           Chicago by 12

Bias:             Chicago by 15

Vegas:        Chicago by 3½         -200/+170

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Detroit +13½ in a 10-point teaser, Under 54½ in 10-point teaser

 

Chicago has a chance to take over first place in the old black and blue division.  If Rodgers cannot go for Green Bay, Chicago could easily be alone at the top of the standings if they can edge an old, weak rival this week.

 

Don’t expect Detroit to hand over the game to the Bears.  The Lions can score points, and they could force Chicago to reach the 30-point mark to beat them.  The Lions have had an extra week to prepare for this game, and they could be this week’s Kansas City Chiefs.  I don’t believe Chicago is capable of blowing Detroit off their home field, so I like the 10-point teaser in this one.  Since I believe the Bears will try to control the clock and hold the score down, I also like the Under in a teaser.  This game could easily be a 24-21 affair.  Even if it goes to overtime at 24-24, a touchdown won’t kill the teaser.  However, a big day by Devin Hester and/or Calvin Johnson could push the total over 55.

 

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)

Time:           4:05 PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Isolated thunderstorms, light wind, temperature around 60

 

PiRate:        Denver by 1

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 8

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 1

Vegas:        Denver by 3       -170/+150

Ov/Un:        47½

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +13 in 10-point teaser, Over 37½ in 10-point teaser

 

This should be a quite entertaining game.  I call it close to a 50-50 tossup.  The Broncos were tamed in Kansas City last week, and they should be more focused for this game and not suffer a four turnover repeat.

 

Tampa Bay’s offense has improved a little every week thus far, and the Bucs have to be considered a serious contender for the NFC Championship.  Their defense is strong enough to keep Jay Cutler and company from scoring 30 points, but I think Denver is still capable of scoring 24-28 points.

 

Denver’s defense has yet to prove they can stop a competent offense, and Tampa Bay should easily top 20 points in this one.  Denver has a 55-60% chance of winning outright, but they won’t win convincingly, and the game should still be up for grabs well into the fourth quarter.  Thus, I like the underdog Bucs getting double digits in a 10-point teaser, and I like the Over in a teaser.

 

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT            

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, windy, temperature in upper 80’s

 

PiRate:        Dallas by 11

Mean:           Dallas by 20

Bias:             Dallas by 17

Vegas:        Dallas by 17              -1500/+1100

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Cincinnati +27 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser

 

This is purely a numbers’ pick here.  I don’t think Cincinnati has a chance to win this game, even if Carson Palmer is able to play.  I don’t think they can stay within 10 points of Dallas even if Palmer has a 250 yard passing day.  However, 27 points is just plain ridiculous to get in a teaser.  Dallas could jump out to a 28-0 lead and then cruise to a 38-14 win, and they wouldn’t cover at 27.

 

The Cowboys have an excellent shot at topping 35 points and satisfying the Over in a teaser, but for our sake let’s hope we get that 38-14 blowout and nothing worse.

 

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, windy, temperature around 80

 

PiRate:        Buffalo by 5

Mean:           Buffalo by 6

Bias:             Buffalo by 1

Vegas:        Pick              Arizona -115, Buffalo -105

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Arizona Pk, Arizona +10 in 10-point teaser, Over 34½ in 10-point teaser

 

I’ve been keying on this game all week.  I think the Cardinals should be favored by at least a field goal, and it looks like the start of a nice gift as a pick.  Right off the bat, a 10-point teaser looks like a 13-point cushion to me. 

 

Buffalo is a good team, but they are not so good that they can go on the road 2,000 miles and beat a playoff-quality team.  I just don’t see the Bills at 5-0 on Monday morning. 

 

Arizona has only played one home game, and they looked strong in their destruction of the Dolphins.  When Miami thumped New England the following week, the 21-point Cardinals’ victory looked even better.  Throw in the fact that the Bills are making a second consecutive road trip, and I think they will be just a little off this week.  I like the Cardinals to win outright at home, and I could see this one becoming a shootout.  My guess is Arizona will win by a score similar to 35-28.

 

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers likely, windy, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:        New England by 3

Mean:           San Francisco by 5

Bias:             New England by 1

Vegas:        New England by 3           -200/+170

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     San Francisco +13 in 10-point teaser

 

This game is this week’s toughest for me to gauge.  New England lost big at home against Miami two weeks ago.  With two weeks to prepare for the 49er passing game, the Patriots’ defense should be up to the challenge.  I think they will hold J. T. O’Sullivan below his average of 240 passing yards per game. 

 

San Francisco has moved the ball this year, but the 49ers have struggled to put points on the board at times.  Their current average of 14.2 yards gained per point scored is not going to get them into the playoffs, but it could allow them to win this game.  They are likely to struggle to reach 300 yards in this game.  If they gain 280 total yards, that would mean they would fail to score 20 points.  However, the Patriots haven’t scored 20 points in any of their first three games.  Throw in the fact that they are traveling west more than 3,000 miles, and the edge begins to tilt toward the upstart home team.

 

Whether or not San Francisco can win and possibly stay in a first place tie in the weak NFC West is up for debate, but I cannot see New England winning by 14 points.  Thus, I think taking the 49ers in a 10-point teaser is the way to go with this game.

 

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2)

Time:           8:15 PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Clear, windy, temperature dropping from 80 to the low 70’s

 

PiRate:        Jacksonville by 5

Mean:           Jacksonville by 1

Bias:             Jacksonville by 2

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 4             -215/+185

Ov/Un:        36

Strategy:     Over 36, Over 26 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +6 in 10-point teaser 

 

If you have Ben Roethlisberger on your fantasy team, you could see him throw the ball 40-50 times this week.  I’m not into fantasies, so the only way that could help me is to see Big Ben connect on 25-30 of those passes for 300-400 yards and a couple of touchdowns.  What that would do is make this game a higher than expected offensive exhibition.

 

Jacksonville likes to hold onto the ball for long drives and take chunks off the clock, but I don’t think the Jaguars can do that against the Steelers’ defense.  The Jags gave up 27 to Houston, and Pittsburgh should top 20 as well even with no running attack whatsoever.  What it means to me is that Jacksonville should score points aplenty this week and win by a score of something like 31-24.  The Over 26 becomes my top priority in a 10-point teaser parlay, and if I was an aggressive guy, I might play this in every parlay.  Since my imaginary bank account is up by over a grand from the start of the season, I won’t be liberal even with play money, so I will use it just once.

 

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)

Time:           8:30 PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:        New Orleans by 13

Mean:           New Orleans by  4

Bias:             New Orleans by  7

Vegas:        New Orleans by 3           -215/+185

Ov/Un:        46½  

Strategy:     Over 36½ in 10-point teaser 

 

Monday night games tend to be higher than average scoring games.  New Orleans can score points with anybody in the league, and the Vikings can score points when their running game gets untracked.

 

Adrian Peterson is facing a Saints’ defense that surrendered 82 rushing yards in 16 attempts to Frank Gore, 65 yards in 11 attempts to Selvin Young, 96 yards on 21 attempts to Clinton Portis, and 91 yards on 10 attempts to backup Buc runner Earnest Graham.  Look for A.P. to run the ball 25 times for 150-200 yards in this game.  Minnesota will reach their season-to-date high point on the scoreboard Monday night; the Vikings should hit or top the 24-point mark.

 

Will 24 points be enough to win at the Superdome?  I’m not sure, but I am sure without a doubt that the Saints will top 14.  24 plus 14 means this game should easily go Over in a 10-point teaser.  Let’s lay off any side in this one and watch our Over win early in the second half.

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Turns A Profit For A Fourth Straight Week

 

Four weeks does not a season make, but I must admit I am quite pleased with how my picks against the spread have fared so far.  I not only made it a perfect four for four in winning weeks, I finished better than 70% for the second time in three weeks.  My picks finished 5-2-2 for 71.4% for the week, and those two pushes were on third parts of teasers.  For the season, my record against the spread stands at 27-12-3 for 69.2%, and my bank account added another $260 to make the new profit $1,265 for the season.  My return on investment is now 30.1%.  I am going to stick with what has been winning, namely 10-point teaser parlays.  I will use that 10-point change to turn favorites into underdogs and force favorites to blow out their opponents to beat me.  I will tease the totals line to give me very opportunistic numbers.

 

Here are my wagers for week five (all wagered to win $100):

 

1.    New York Giants -7 vs. Seattle

 

2.    Philadelphia -260 vs. Washington

 

3.    Indianapolis -3 vs. Houston

 

4.    Indianapolis -170 vs. Houston

 

5.    Arizona Pk vs. Buffalo

      

6.    10-point teaser

       a.    Carolina +½ vs. Kansas City  

       b.    Baltimore +13 vs. Tennessee

       c.    Miami +16½ vs. San Diego

 

7.    10-point teaser

       a.    Kansas City & Carolina Over 28

       b.    Miami & San Diego Over 35

       c.    New York Giants +3 vs. Seattle

 

8.    10-point teaser

       a.    Washington +16 vs. Philadelphia

       b.    Indianapolis +7 vs. Houston

       c.    Detroit +13½ vs. Chicago

 

9.    10-point teaser

       a.    Detroit & Chicago Under 54½ 

       b.    Tampa Bay +13 vs. Denver

       c.    Jacksonville +6 vs. Pittsburgh

 

10.  10-point teaser

       a.    Tampa Bay & Denver Over 37½ 

       b.    Cincinnati & Dallas Over 34

       c.    Arizona +10 vs. Buffalo

 

11.  10-point teaser

       a.    Cincinnati +27 vs. Dallas

       b.    Arizona & Buffalo Over 34½

       c.    Pittsburgh & Jacksonville Over 26

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all nine wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.