The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 10, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 10, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:22 am

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PiRate Ratings For January 10, 2020

 

#

Team

PiRate

Conference

1

Duke

122.6

Atlantic Coast

2

Kansas

121.8

Big 12

3

Michigan St.

120.3

Big Ten

4

Gonzaga

117.6

West Coast

5

Ohio St.

117.5

Big Ten

6

Arizona

117.0

Pac-12

7

Maryland

116.8

Big Ten

8

Louisville

116.1

Atlantic Coast

9

Dayton

116.0

Atlantic 10

10

Baylor

115.7

Big 12

11

Butler

115.4

Big East

12

Florida St.

115.1

Atlantic Coast

13

Seton Hall

115.0

Big East

14

West Virginia

114.9

Big 12

15

Auburn

114.8

Southeastern

16

Kentucky

114.7

Southeastern

17

Oregon

114.6

Pac-12

18

Michigan

113.9

Big Ten

19

San Diego St.

113.6

Mountain West

20

Penn St.

112.9

Big Ten

21

Florida

112.9

Southeastern

22

LSU

112.9

Southeastern

23

Villanova

112.8

Big East

24

Memphis

112.7

American Athletic

25

BYU

112.7

West Coast

26

Iowa

112.6

Big Ten

27

Texas Tech

112.6

Big 12

28

Illinois

112.3

Big Ten

29

Houston

112.3

American Athletic

30

Purdue

112.3

Big Ten

31

Marquette

112.2

Big East

32

Wichita St.

112.2

Big East

33

Arkansas

112.1

Southeastern

34

Wisconsin

112.0

Big Ten

35

Rutgers

111.8

Big Ten

36

Colorado

111.6

Pac-12

37

Saint Mary’s

111.4

West Coast

38

VCU

111.2

Atlantic 10

39

Minnesota

111.2

Big Ten

40

Indiana

111.0

Big Ten

41

Xavier

110.9

Big East

42

Washington

110.8

Pac-12

43

Creighton

110.8

Big East

44

North Carolina St.

110.7

Atlantic Coast

45

Georgetown

110.6

Big East

46

Alabama

110.6

Southeastern

47

Oklahoma

110.5

Big 12

48

Virginia

110.2

Atlantic Coast

49

Tennessee

110.0

Southeastern

50

Cincinnati

109.7

American Athletic

51

Stanford

109.6

Pac-12

52

TCU

109.2

Big 12

53

Missouri

109.0

Southeastern

54

Iowa St.

108.9

Big 12

55

Oklahoma St.

108.9

Big 12

56

Utah St.

108.9

Mountain West

57

Notre Dame

108.8

Atlantic Coast

58

East Tennessee St.

108.6

Southern

59

North Carolina

108.6

Atlantic Coast

60

Georgia

108.3

Southeastern

61

Mississippi St.

108.3

Southeastern

62

Richmond

108.3

Atlantic 10

63

Providence

108.2

Big East

64

Yale

108.2

Ivy

65

Virginia Tech

108.0

Atlantic Coast

66

Furman

107.9

Southern

67

Liberty

107.9

Atlantic Sun

68

Temple

107.8

American Athletic

69

Oregon St.

107.7

Pac-12

70

Duquesne

107.6

Atlantic 10

71

Louisiana Tech

107.5

Conference USA

72

St. John’s

107.4

Big East

73

Belmont

107.4

Ohio Valley

74

Syracuse

107.4

Atlantic Coast

75

Pittsburgh

107.3

Atlantic Coast

76

Texas

107.3

Big 12

77

DePaul

107.3

Big East

78

Arizona St.

107.2

Pac-12

79

Rhode Island

107.2

Atlantic 10

80

SMU

107.2

American Athletic

81

USC

107.1

Pac-12

82

Connecticut

106.9

American Athletic

83

Georgia Tech

106.7

Atlantic Coast

84

Northern Iowa

106.5

Missouri Valley

85

Vermont

106.4

American East

86

Akron

106.3

Mid-American

87

Davidson

106.3

Atlantic 10

88

UNC Greensboro

106.2

Southern

89

Clemson

106.2

Atlantic Coast

90

Miami (Fla.)

105.9

Atlantic Coast

91

Kansas St.

105.8

Big 12

92

New Mexico St.

105.8

Western Athletic

93

New Mexico

105.6

Mountain West

94

Utah

105.6

Pac-12

95

Nevada

105.4

Mountain West

96

Harvard

105.3

Ivy

97

Kent St.

105.2

Mid-American

98

Wake Forest

105.2

Atlantic Coast

99

Mississippi

105.1

Southeastern

100

San Francisco

104.9

West Coast

101

Georgia St.

104.7

Sun Belt

102

Ball St.

104.6

Mid-American

103

Boise St.

104.6

Mountain West

104

Toledo

104.5

Mid-American

105

Bradley

104.5

Missouri Valley

106

Northwestern

104.3

Big Ten

107

Wright St.

104.2

Horizon

108

Western Kentucky

104.2

Conference USA

109

Saint Louis

104.1

Atlantic 10

110

UCLA

104.0

Pac-12

111

Central Florida

104.0

American Athletic

112

South Carolina

103.9

Southeastern

113

Loyola (Chi.)

103.7

Missouri Valley

114

North Texas

103.3

Conference USA

115

Vanderbilt

103.2

Southeastern

116

Tulsa

103.1

American Athletic

117

South Florida

103.1

American Athletic

118

UC Irvine

103.0

Big West

119

Charleston

102.9

Colonial Athletic

120

St. Bonaventure

102.8

Atlantic 10

121

Wofford

102.7

Southern

122

Nebraska

102.6

Big Ten

123

Stony Brook

102.5

American East

124

Indiana St.

102.5

Missouri Valley

125

Murray St.

102.5

Ohio Valley

126

Stephen F. Austin

102.4

Southland

127

Northern Colorado

102.4

Big Sky

128

Fresno St.

102.3

Mountain West

129

Penn

102.3

Ivy

130

UT Arlington

102.2

Southland

131

Boston College

102.2

Atlantic Coast

132

Colgate

102.2

Patriot

133

Washington St.

102.1

Pac-12

134

Radford

102.0

Big South

135

Winthrop

101.9

Big South

136

Missouri St.

101.8

Missouri Valley

137

Hofstra

101.8

Colonial Athletic

138

Northeastern

101.7

Colonial Athletic

139

Colorado St.

101.7

Mountain West

140

UTEP

101.6

Conference USA

141

UNLV

101.6

Mountain West

142

Texas St.

101.5

Sun Belt

143

Marshall

101.5

Conference USA

144

UC Santa Barbara

101.4

Big West

145

South Dakota St.

101.3

Summit

146

Drake

101.3

Missouri Valley

147

Santa Clara

101.2

West Coast

148

North Dakota St.

101.2

Summit

149

Northern Kentucky

101.0

Horizon

150

Oral Roberts

101.0

Summit

151

William & Mary

100.9

Colonial Athletic

152

Texas A&M

100.9

Southeastern

153

Buffalo

100.9

Mid-American

154

Georgia Southern

100.8

Sun Belt

155

Southern Utah

100.8

Big Sky

156

Western Carolina

100.8

Southern

157

Coastal Carolina

100.8

Sun Belt

158

George Mason

100.7

Atlantic 10

159

Pacific

100.5

West Coast

160

Hawaii

100.3

Big West

161

Pepperdine

100.2

West Coast

162

UAB

100.2

Conference USA

163

Little Rock

100.2

Sun Belt

164

La Salle

100.1

Atlantic 10

165

Tulane

100.1

American Athletic

166

North Florida

100.1

Atlantic Sun

167

Air Force

99.9

Mountain West

168

Bowling Green

99.9

Mid-American

169

Appalachian St.

99.9

Sun Belt

170

Northern Illinois

99.9

Mid-American

171

Charlotte

99.9

Conference USA

172

Sam Houston St.

99.8

Southland

173

St. Francis (PA)

99.7

Northeast

174

Valparaiso

99.5

Missouri Valley

175

Massachusetts

99.5

Atlantic 10

176

Montana

99.5

Big Sky

177

California Baptist

99.4

Western Athletic

178

California

99.4

Pac-12

179

Old Dominion

99.3

Conference USA

180

Towson

99.3

Colonial Athletic

181

Florida Int’l.

99.3

Conference USA

182

Eastern Washington

99.3

Big Sky

183

Rider

99.2

Metro Atlantic

184

Delaware

99.2

Colonial Athletic

185

Florida Atlantic

99.1

Conference USA

186

South Alabama

99.1

Sun Belt

187

Southern Illinois

99.1

Missouri Valley

188

Central Michigan

99.0

Mid-American

189

Omaha

98.7

Summit

190

Austin Peay

98.5

Ohio Valley

191

Sacramento St.

98.5

Big Sky

192

Nicholls St.

98.4

Southland

193

UTSA

98.3

Conference USA

194

Princeton

98.1

Ivy

195

Chattanooga

98.0

Southern

196

Siena

97.9

Metro Atlantic

197

Sacred Heart

97.9

Northeast

198

Lafayette

97.7

Patriot

199

Ohio

97.7

Mid-American

200

Green Bay

97.7

Horizon

201

Miami (O)

97.6

Mid-American

202

San Diego

97.5

West Coast

203

Portland St.

97.4

Big Sky

204

Illinois St.

97.3

Missouri Valley

205

Boston U

97.2

Patriot

206

Loyola Marymount

97.2

West Coast

207

Dartmouth

97.2

Ivy

208

Bryant

97.2

Northeast

209

Brown

97.1

Ivy

210

South Dakota

97.1

Summit

211

North Dakota

97.1

Summit

212

UC Riverside

97.0

Big West

213

Oakland

96.9

Horizon

214

American

96.8

Patriot

215

Monmouth

96.7

Metro Atlantic

216

Eastern Illinois

96.7

Ohio Valley

217

Evansville

96.6

Missouri Valley

218

Eastern Michigan

96.5

Mid-American

219

Albany

96.5

American East

220

Samford

96.5

Southern

221

Montana St.

96.5

Big Sky

222

Youngstown St.

96.5

Horizon

223

Abilene Christian

96.4

Southland

224

Navy

96.3

Patriot

225

Rice

96.3

Conference USA

226

Quinnipiac

96.1

Metro Atlantic

227

Lipscomb

96.1

Atlantic Sun

228

Northern Arizona

96.1

Big Sky

229

Prairie View A&M

96.1

Southwestern Athl.

230

Grand Canyon

96.0

Western Athletic

231

Campbell

96.0

Big South

232

Missouri-KC

95.9

Western Athletic

233

Jacksonville St.

95.9

Ohio Valley

234

East Carolina

95.8

American Athletic

235

Bucknell

95.8

Patriot

236

Seattle

95.7

Western Athletic

237

Purdue Fort Wayne

95.7

Summit

238

Canisius

95.6

Metro Atlantic

239

Jacksonville

95.6

Atlantic Sun

240

Loyola (MD)

95.6

Patriot

241

Cal St. Bakersfield

95.6

Western Athletic

242

George Washington

95.5

Atlantic 10

243

Columbia

95.4

Ivy

244

UC Davis

95.4

Big West

245

Arkansas St.

95.3

Sun Belt

246

Robert Morris

95.2

Northeast

247

Louisiana

95.2

Sun Belt

248

Iona

95.2

Metro Atlantic

249

Tennessee St.

95.2

Ohio Valley

250

Louisiana Monroe

95.1

Sun Belt

251

Gardner-Webb

95.1

Big South

252

Portland

95.1

West Coast

253

Drexel

95.1

Colonial Athletic

254

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.0

Western Athletic

255

Milwaukee

94.9

Horizon

256

Manhattan

94.9

Metro Atlantic

257

Fairfield

94.9

Metro Atlantic

258

Utah Valley

94.8

Western Athletic

259

Illinois Chicago

94.8

Horizon

260

UNC Asheville

94.7

Big South

261

Western Michigan

94.7

Mid-American

262

Long Island

94.6

Northeast

263

Saint Peter’s

94.5

Metro Atlantic

264

Fordham

94.5

Atlantic 10

265

UMass Lowell

94.4

American East

266

Lehigh

94.4

Patriot

267

Troy

94.4

Sun Belt

268

Cal St. Northridge

94.3

Big West

269

Saint Joseph’s

94.3

Atlantic 10

270

Mercer

94.2

Southern

271

James Madison

94.2

Colonial Athletic

272

Cal St. Fullerton

94.0

Big West

273

Lamar

93.9

Southland

274

McNeese St.

93.8

Southland

275

Morehead St.

93.8

Ohio Valley

276

Norfolk St.

93.8

Mideastern Athletic

277

Southern Miss.

93.7

Conference USA

278

Weber St.

93.6

Big Sky

279

Bethune Cookman

93.5

Mideastern Athletic

280

New Hampshire

93.5

American East

281

Texas Southern

93.4

Southwestern Athl.

282

Middle Tennessee

93.3

Conference USA

283

Merrimack

92.9

Northeast

284

Cornell

92.8

Ivy

285

North Alabama

92.8

Atlantic Sun

286

Mount St. Mary’s

92.7

Northeast

287

Detroit

92.6

Horizon

288

VMI

92.5

Southern

289

UM Baltimore Co.

92.4

American East

290

Citadel

92.4

Southern

291

Texas A&M CC

92.3

Southland

292

Grambling

92.3

Southwestern Athl.

293

Hartford

92.2

American East

294

Wyoming

92.1

Mountain West

295

San Jose St.

92.0

Mountain West

296

NJIT

91.9

Atlantic Sun

297

Army

91.8

Patriot

298

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.6

Northeast

299

Morgan St.

91.6

Mideastern Athletic

300

New Orleans

91.5

Southland

301

Idaho St.

91.4

Big Sky

302

UT-Martin

91.4

Ohio Valley

303

IUPUI

91.4

Horizon

304

Wagner

91.2

Northeast

305

Cleveland St.

91.1

Horizon

306

Niagara

91.1

Metro Atlantic

307

North Carolina Central

90.9

Mideastern Athletic

308

UNC Wilmington

90.8

Colonial Athletic

309

Long Beach St.

90.8

Big West

310

Elon

90.5

Colonial Athletic

311

Longwood

90.4

Big South

312

Stetson

90.2

Atlantic Sun

313

Idaho

90.2

Big Sky

314

Florida Gulf Coast

90.1

Atlantic Sun

315

Alcorn St.

90.0

Southwestern Athl.

316

SE Missouri

90.0

Ohio Valley

317

St. Francis (NY)

89.9

Northeast

318

Florida A&M

89.8

Mideastern Athletic

319

Binghamton

89.8

American East

320

Hampton

89.7

Big South

321

USC Upstate

89.7

Big South

322

Charleston Southern

89.6

Big South

323

Eastern Kentucky

89.6

Ohio Valley

324

North Carolina A&T

89.5

Mideastern Athletic

325

Western Illinois

89.4

Summit

326

Southern

89.4

Southwestern Athl.

327

Central Arkansas

89.3

Southland

328

Denver

89.3

Summit

329

SE Louisiana

89.2

Southland

330

Cal Poly

88.9

Big West

331

Jackson St.

88.7

Southwestern Athl.

332

Coppin St.

88.6

Mideastern Athletic

333

South Carolina St.

88.3

Mideastern Athletic

334

Northwestern St.

88.3

Southland

335

Holy Cross

88.2

Patriot

336

Alabama A&M

87.8

Southwestern Athl.

337

Marist

87.7

Metro Atlantic

338

Tennessee Tech

87.6

Ohio Valley

339

SIU Edwardsville

87.6

Ohio Valley

340

Presbyterian

87.5

Big South

341

Alabama St.

87.1

Southwestern Athl.

342

Maine

86.8

American East

343

Houston Baptist

86.5

Southland

344

High Point

86.0

Big South

345

Arkansas Pine Bluff

85.0

Southwestern Athl.

346

Kennesaw St.

84.7

Atlantic Sun

347

Incarnate Word

83.2

Southland

348

Howard

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

349

MD Eastern Shore

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

350

Central Connecticut

81.3

Northeast

351

Delaware St.

80.7

Mideastern Athletic

352

Chicago St.

77.8

Western Athletic

353

Mississippi Valley St.

77.0

Southwestern Athl.

 

Alphabetical

 

Team

PiRate

Conf.

Abilene Christian

96.4

Southland

Air Force

99.9

Mountain West

Akron

106.3

Mid-American

Alabama

110.6

Southeastern

Alabama A&M

87.8

Southwestern Athl.

Alabama St.

87.1

Southwestern Athl.

Albany

96.5

American East

Alcorn St.

90.0

Southwestern Athl.

American

96.8

Patriot

Appalachian St.

99.9

Sun Belt

Arizona

117.0

Pac-12

Arizona St.

107.2

Pac-12

Arkansas

112.1

Southeastern

Arkansas Pine Bluff

85.0

Southwestern Athl.

Arkansas St.

95.3

Sun Belt

Army

91.8

Patriot

Auburn

114.8

Southeastern

Austin Peay

98.5

Ohio Valley

Ball St.

104.6

Mid-American

Baylor

115.7

Big 12

Belmont

107.4

Ohio Valley

Bethune Cookman

93.5

Mideastern Athletic

Binghamton

89.8

American East

Boise St.

104.6

Mountain West

Boston College

102.2

Atlantic Coast

Boston U

97.2

Patriot

Bowling Green

99.9

Mid-American

Bradley

104.5

Missouri Valley

Brown

97.1

Ivy

Bryant

97.2

Northeast

Bucknell

95.8

Patriot

Buffalo

100.9

Mid-American

Butler

115.4

Big East

BYU

112.7

West Coast

Cal Poly

88.9

Big West

Cal St. Bakersfield

95.6

Western Athletic

Cal St. Fullerton

94.0

Big West

Cal St. Northridge

94.3

Big West

California

99.4

Pac-12

California Baptist

99.4

Western Athletic

Campbell

96.0

Big South

Canisius

95.6

Metro Atlantic

Central Arkansas

89.3

Southland

Central Connecticut

81.3

Northeast

Central Florida

104.0

American Athletic

Central Michigan

99.0

Mid-American

Charleston

102.9

Colonial Athletic

Charleston Southern

89.6

Big South

Charlotte

99.9

Conference USA

Chattanooga

98.0

Southern

Chicago St.

77.8

Western Athletic

Cincinnati

109.7

American Athletic

Citadel

92.4

Southern

Clemson

106.2

Atlantic Coast

Cleveland St.

91.1

Horizon

Coastal Carolina

100.8

Sun Belt

Colgate

102.2

Patriot

Colorado

111.6

Pac-12

Colorado St.

101.7

Mountain West

Columbia

95.4

Ivy

Connecticut

106.9

American Athletic

Coppin St.

88.6

Mideastern Athletic

Cornell

92.8

Ivy

Creighton

110.8

Big East

Dartmouth

97.2

Ivy

Davidson

106.3

Atlantic 10

Dayton

116.0

Atlantic 10

Delaware

99.2

Colonial Athletic

Delaware St.

80.7

Mideastern Athletic

Denver

89.3

Summit

DePaul

107.3

Big East

Detroit

92.6

Horizon

Drake

101.3

Missouri Valley

Drexel

95.1

Colonial Athletic

Duke

122.6

Atlantic Coast

Duquesne

107.6

Atlantic 10

East Carolina

95.8

American Athletic

East Tennessee St.

108.6

Southern

Eastern Illinois

96.7

Ohio Valley

Eastern Kentucky

89.6

Ohio Valley

Eastern Michigan

96.5

Mid-American

Eastern Washington

99.3

Big Sky

Elon

90.5

Colonial Athletic

Evansville

96.6

Missouri Valley

Fairfield

94.9

Metro Atlantic

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.6

Northeast

Florida

112.9

Southeastern

Florida A&M

89.8

Mideastern Athletic

Florida Atlantic

99.1

Conference USA

Florida Gulf Coast

90.1

Atlantic Sun

Florida Int’l.

99.3

Conference USA

Florida St.

115.1

Atlantic Coast

Fordham

94.5

Atlantic 10

Fresno St.

102.3

Mountain West

Furman

107.9

Southern

Gardner-Webb

95.1

Big South

George Mason

100.7

Atlantic 10

George Washington

95.5

Atlantic 10

Georgetown

110.6

Big East

Georgia

108.3

Southeastern

Georgia Southern

100.8

Sun Belt

Georgia St.

104.7

Sun Belt

Georgia Tech

106.7

Atlantic Coast

Gonzaga

117.6

West Coast

Grambling

92.3

Southwestern Athl.

Grand Canyon

96.0

Western Athletic

Green Bay

97.7

Horizon

Hampton

89.7

Big South

Hartford

92.2

American East

Harvard

105.3

Ivy

Hawaii

100.3

Big West

High Point

86.0

Big South

Hofstra

101.8

Colonial Athletic

Holy Cross

88.2

Patriot

Houston

112.3

American Athletic

Houston Baptist

86.5

Southland

Howard

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

Idaho

90.2

Big Sky

Idaho St.

91.4

Big Sky

Illinois

112.3

Big Ten

Illinois Chicago

94.8

Horizon

Illinois St.

97.3

Missouri Valley

Incarnate Word

83.2

Southland

Indiana

111.0

Big Ten

Indiana St.

102.5

Missouri Valley

Iona

95.2

Metro Atlantic

Iowa

112.6

Big Ten

Iowa St.

108.9

Big 12

IUPUI

91.4

Horizon

Jackson St.

88.7

Southwestern Athl.

Jacksonville

95.6

Atlantic Sun

Jacksonville St.

95.9

Ohio Valley

James Madison

94.2

Colonial Athletic

Kansas

121.8

Big 12

Kansas St.

105.8

Big 12

Kennesaw St.

84.7

Atlantic Sun

Kent St.

105.2

Mid-American

Kentucky

114.7

Southeastern

La Salle

100.1

Atlantic 10

Lafayette

97.7

Patriot

Lamar

93.9

Southland

Lehigh

94.4

Patriot

Liberty

107.9

Atlantic Sun

Lipscomb

96.1

Atlantic Sun

Little Rock

100.2

Sun Belt

Long Beach St.

90.8

Big West

Long Island

94.6

Northeast

Longwood

90.4

Big South

Louisiana

95.2

Sun Belt

Louisiana Monroe

95.1

Sun Belt

Louisiana Tech

107.5

Conference USA

Louisville

116.1

Atlantic Coast

Loyola (Chi.)

103.7

Missouri Valley

Loyola Marymount

97.2

West Coast

Loyola (MD)

95.6

Patriot

LSU

112.9

Southeastern

Maine

86.8

American East

Manhattan

94.9

Metro Atlantic

Marist

87.7

Metro Atlantic

Marquette

112.2

Big East

Marshall

101.5

Conference USA

Maryland

116.8

Big Ten

Massachusetts

99.5

Atlantic 10

McNeese St.

93.8

Southland

MD Eastern Shore

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

Memphis

112.7

American Athletic

Mercer

94.2

Southern

Merrimack

92.9

Northeast

Miami (Fla.)

105.9

Atlantic Coast

Miami (O)

97.6

Mid-American

Michigan

113.9

Big Ten

Michigan St.

120.3

Big Ten

Middle Tennessee

93.3

Conference USA

Milwaukee

94.9

Horizon

Minnesota

111.2

Big Ten

Mississippi

105.1

Southeastern

Mississippi St.

108.3

Southeastern

Mississippi Valley St.

77.0

Southwestern Athl.

Missouri

109.0

Southeastern

Missouri-KC

95.9

Western Athletic

Missouri St.

101.8

Missouri Valley

Monmouth

96.7

Metro Atlantic

Montana

99.5

Big Sky

Montana St.

96.5

Big Sky

Morehead St.

93.8

Ohio Valley

Morgan St.

91.6

Mideastern Athletic

Mount St. Mary’s

92.7

Northeast

Murray St.

102.5

Ohio Valley

Navy

96.3

Patriot

Nebraska

102.6

Big Ten

Nevada

105.4

Mountain West

New Hampshire

93.5

American East

New Mexico

105.6

Mountain West

New Mexico St.

105.8

Western Athletic

New Orleans

91.5

Southland

Niagara

91.1

Metro Atlantic

Nicholls St.

98.4

Southland

NJIT

91.9

Atlantic Sun

Norfolk St.

93.8

Mideastern Athletic

North Alabama

92.8

Atlantic Sun

North Carolina

108.6

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina A&T

89.5

Mideastern Athletic

North Carolina Central

90.9

Mideastern Athletic

North Carolina St.

110.7

Atlantic Coast

North Dakota

97.1

Summit

North Dakota St.

101.2

Summit

North Florida

100.1

Atlantic Sun

North Texas

103.3

Conference USA

Northeastern

101.7

Colonial Athletic

Northern Arizona

96.1

Big Sky

Northern Colorado

102.4

Big Sky

Northern Illinois

99.9

Mid-American

Northern Iowa

106.5

Missouri Valley

Northern Kentucky

101.0

Horizon

Northwestern

104.3

Big Ten

Northwestern St.

88.3

Southland

Notre Dame

108.8

Atlantic Coast

Oakland

96.9

Horizon

Ohio

97.7

Mid-American

Ohio St.

117.5

Big Ten

Oklahoma

110.5

Big 12

Oklahoma St.

108.9

Big 12

Old Dominion

99.3

Conference USA

Omaha

98.7

Summit

Oral Roberts

101.0

Summit

Oregon

114.6

Pac-12

Oregon St.

107.7

Pac-12

Pacific

100.5

West Coast

Penn

102.3

Ivy

Penn St.

112.9

Big Ten

Pepperdine

100.2

West Coast

Pittsburgh

107.3

Atlantic Coast

Portland

95.1

West Coast

Portland St.

97.4

Big Sky

Prairie View A&M

96.1

Southwestern Athl.

Presbyterian

87.5

Big South

Princeton

98.1

Ivy

Providence

108.2

Big East

Purdue

112.3

Big Ten

Purdue Fort Wayne

95.7

Summit

Quinnipiac

96.1

Metro Atlantic

Radford

102.0

Big South

Rhode Island

107.2

Atlantic 10

Rice

96.3

Conference USA

Richmond

108.3

Atlantic 10

Rider

99.2

Metro Atlantic

Robert Morris

95.2

Northeast

Rutgers

111.8

Big Ten

Sacramento St.

98.5

Big Sky

Sacred Heart

97.9

Northeast

Saint Joseph’s

94.3

Atlantic 10

Saint Louis

104.1

Atlantic 10

Saint Mary’s

111.4

West Coast

Saint Peter’s

94.5

Metro Atlantic

Sam Houston St.

99.8

Southland

Samford

96.5

Southern

San Diego

97.5

West Coast

San Diego St.

113.6

Mountain West

San Francisco

104.9

West Coast

San Jose St.

92.0

Mountain West

Santa Clara

101.2

West Coast

SE Louisiana

89.2

Southland

SE Missouri

90.0

Ohio Valley

Seattle

95.7

Western Athletic

Seton Hall

115.0

Big East

Siena

97.9

Metro Atlantic

SIU Edwardsville

87.6

Ohio Valley

SMU

107.2

American Athletic

South Alabama

99.1

Sun Belt

South Carolina

103.9

Southeastern

South Carolina St.

88.3

Mideastern Athletic

South Dakota

97.1

Summit

South Dakota St.

101.3

Summit

South Florida

103.1

American Athletic

Southern

89.4

Southwestern Athl.

Southern Illinois

99.1

Missouri Valley

Southern Miss.

93.7

Conference USA

Southern Utah

100.8

Big Sky

St. Bonaventure

102.8

Atlantic 10

St. Francis (NY)

89.9

Northeast

St. Francis (PA)

99.7

Northeast

St. John’s

107.4

Big East

Stanford

109.6

Pac-12

Stephen F. Austin

102.4

Southland

Stetson

90.2

Atlantic Sun

Stony Brook

102.5

American East

Syracuse

107.4

Atlantic Coast

TCU

109.2

Big 12

Temple

107.8

American Athletic

Tennessee

110.0

Southeastern

Tennessee St.

95.2

Ohio Valley

Tennessee Tech

87.6

Ohio Valley

Texas

107.3

Big 12

Texas A&M

100.9

Southeastern

Texas A&M CC

92.3

Southland

Texas Southern

93.4

Southwestern Athl.

Texas St.

101.5

Sun Belt

Texas Tech

112.6

Big 12

Toledo

104.5

Mid-American

Towson

99.3

Colonial Athletic

Troy

94.4

Sun Belt

Tulane

100.1

American Athletic

Tulsa

103.1

American Athletic

UAB

100.2

Conference USA

UC Davis

95.4

Big West

UC Irvine

103.0

Big West

UC Riverside

97.0

Big West

UC Santa Barbara

101.4

Big West

UCLA

104.0

Pac-12

UM Baltimore Co.

92.4

American East

UMass Lowell

94.4

American East

UNC Asheville

94.7

Big South

UNC Greensboro

106.2

Southern

UNC Wilmington

90.8

Colonial Athletic

UNLV

101.6

Mountain West

USC

107.1

Pac-12

USC Upstate

89.7

Big South

UT Arlington

102.2

Southland

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.0

Western Athletic

UT-Martin

91.4

Ohio Valley

Utah

105.6

Pac-12

Utah St.

108.9

Mountain West

Utah Valley

94.8

Western Athletic

UTEP

101.6

Conference USA

UTSA

98.3

Conference USA

Valparaiso

99.5

Missouri Valley

Vanderbilt

103.2

Southeastern

VCU

111.2

Atlantic 10

Vermont

106.4

American East

Villanova

112.8

Big East

Virginia

110.2

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Tech

108.0

Atlantic Coast

VMI

92.5

Southern

Wagner

91.2

Northeast

Wake Forest

105.2

Atlantic Coast

Washington

110.8

Pac-12

Washington St.

102.1

Pac-12

Weber St.

93.6

Big Sky

West Virginia

114.9

Big 12

Western Carolina

100.8

Southern

Western Illinois

89.4

Summit

Western Kentucky

104.2

Conference USA

Western Michigan

94.7

Mid-American

Wichita St.

112.2

Big East

William & Mary

100.9

Colonial Athletic

Winthrop

101.9

Big South

Wisconsin

112.0

Big Ten

Wofford

102.7

Southern

Wright St.

104.2

Horizon

Wyoming

92.1

Mountain West

Xavier

110.9

Big East

Yale

108.2

Ivy

Youngstown St.

96.5

Horizon

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

#

American Athletic

PiRate

1

Memphis

112.7

2

Houston

112.3

3

Cincinnati

109.7

4

Temple

107.8

5

SMU

107.2

6

Connecticut

106.9

7

Central Florida

104.0

8

Tulsa

103.1

9

South Florida

103.1

10

Tulane

100.1

11

East Carolina

95.8

Avg

American Athletic

105.7

 

 

#

American East

PiRate

1

Vermont

106.4

2

Stony Brook

102.5

3

Albany

96.5

4

UMass Lowell

94.4

5

New Hampshire

93.5

6

UM Baltimore Co.

92.4

7

Hartford

92.2

8

Binghamton

89.8

9

Maine

86.8

Avg

American East

94.9

 

 

#

Atlantic 10

PiRate

1

Dayton

116.0

2

VCU

111.2

3

Richmond

108.3

4

Duquesne

107.6

5

Rhode Island

107.2

6

Davidson

106.3

7

Saint Louis

104.1

8

St. Bonaventure

102.8

9

George Mason

100.7

10

La Salle

100.1

11

Massachusetts

99.5

12

George Washington

95.5

13

Fordham

94.5

14

Saint Joseph’s

94.3

Avg.

Atlantic 10

103.4

 

 

#

Atlantic Coast

PiRate

1

Duke

122.6

2

Louisville

116.1

3

Florida St.

115.1

4

North Carolina St.

110.7

5

Virginia

110.2

6

Notre Dame

108.8

7

North Carolina

108.6

8

Virginia Tech

108.0

9

Syracuse

107.4

10

Pittsburgh

107.3

11

Georgia Tech

106.7

12

Clemson

106.2

13

Miami (Fla.)

105.9

14

Wake Forest

105.2

15

Boston College

102.2

Avg

Atlantic Coast

109.4

 

 

#

Atlantic Sun

PiRate

1

Liberty

107.9

2

North Florida

100.1

3

Lipscomb

96.1

4

Jacksonville

95.6

5

North Alabama

92.8

6

NJIT

91.9

7

Stetson

90.2

8

Florida Gulf Coast

90.1

9

Kennesaw St.

84.7

Avg

Atlantic Sun

94.4

 

 

#

Big 12

PiRate

1

Kansas

121.8

2

Baylor

115.7

3

West Virginia

114.9

4

Texas Tech

112.6

5

Oklahoma

110.5

6

TCU

109.2

7

Iowa St.

108.9

8

Oklahoma St.

108.9

9

Texas

107.3

10

Kansas St.

105.8

Avg

Big 12

111.6

 

 

#

Big East

PiRate

1

Butler

115.4

2

Seton Hall

115.0

3

Villanova

112.8

4

Marquette

112.2

5

Wichita St.

112.2

6

Xavier

110.9

7

Creighton

110.8

8

Georgetown

110.6

9

Providence

108.2

10

St. John’s

107.4

11

DePaul

107.3

Avg

Big East

111.2

 

 

#

Big Sky

PiRate

1

Northern Colorado

102.4

2

Southern Utah

100.8

3

Montana

99.5

4

Eastern Washington

99.3

5

Sacramento St.

98.5

6

Portland St.

97.4

7

Montana St.

96.5

8

Northern Arizona

96.1

9

Weber St.

93.6

10

Idaho St.

91.4

11

Idaho

90.2

#

Big Sky

96.9

 

 

#

Big South

PiRate

1

Radford

102.0

2

Winthrop

101.9

3

Campbell

96.0

4

Gardner-Webb

95.1

5

UNC Asheville

94.7

6

Longwood

90.4

7

Hampton

89.7

8

USC Upstate

89.7

9

Charleston Southern

89.6

10

Presbyterian

87.5

11

High Point

86.0

Avg

Big South

93.0

 

 

#

Big Ten

PiRate

1

Michigan St.

120.3

2

Ohio St.

117.5

3

Maryland

116.8

4

Michigan

113.9

5

Penn St.

112.9

6

Iowa

112.6

7

Illinois

112.3

8

Purdue

112.3

9

Wisconsin

112.0

10

Rutgers

111.8

11

Minnesota

111.2

12

Indiana

111.0

13

Northwestern

104.3

14

Nebraska

102.6

Avg

Big Ten

112.3

 

 

#

Big West

PiRate

1

UC Irvine

103.0

2

UC Santa Barbara

101.4

3

Hawaii

100.3

4

UC Riverside

97.0

5

UC Davis

95.4

6

Cal St. Northridge

94.3

7

Cal St. Fullerton

94.0

8

Long Beach St.

90.8

9

Cal Poly

88.9

Avg

Big West

96.1

 

 

#

Colonial Athletic

PiRate

1

Charleston

102.9

2

Hofstra

101.8

3

Northeastern

101.7

4

William & Mary

100.9

5

Towson

99.3

6

Delaware

99.2

7

Drexel

95.1

8

James Madison

94.2

9

UNC Wilmington

90.8

10

Elon

90.5

Avg

Colonial Athletic

97.6

 

 

#

Conference USA

PiRate

1

Louisiana Tech

107.5

2

Western Kentucky

104.2

3

North Texas

103.3

4

UTEP

101.6

5

Marshall

101.5

6

UAB

100.2

7

Charlotte

99.9

8

Old Dominion

99.3

9

Florida Int’l.

99.3

10

Florida Atlantic

99.1

11

UTSA

98.3

12

Rice

96.3

13

Southern Miss.

93.7

14

Middle Tennessee

93.3

Avg

Conference USA

99.8

 

 

#

Horizon

PiRate

1

Wright St.

104.2

2

Northern Kentucky

101.0

3

Green Bay

97.7

4

Oakland

96.9

5

Youngstown St.

96.5

6

Milwaukee

94.9

7

Illinois Chicago

94.8

8

Detroit

92.6

9

IUPUI

91.4

10

Cleveland St.

91.1

Avg

Horizon

96.1

 

 

#

Ivy

PiRate

1

Yale

108.2

2

Harvard

105.3

3

Penn

102.3

4

Princeton

98.1

5

Dartmouth

97.2

6

Brown

97.1

7

Columbia

95.4

8

Cornell

92.8

Avg

Ivy

99.6

 

 

#

Metro Atlantic

PiRate

1

Rider

99.2

2

Siena

97.9

3

Monmouth

96.7

4

Quinnipiac

96.1

5

Canisius

95.6

6

Iona

95.2

7

Manhattan

94.9

8

Fairfield

94.9

9

Saint Peter’s

94.5

10

Niagara

91.1

11

Marist

87.7

Avg

Metro Atlantic

94.9

 

 

#

Mid-American

PiRate

1

Akron

106.3

2

Kent St.

105.2

3

Ball St.

104.6

4

Toledo

104.5

5

Buffalo

100.9

6

Bowling Green

99.9

7

Northern Illinois

99.9

8

Central Michigan

99.0

9

Ohio

97.7

10

Miami (O)

97.6

11

Eastern Michigan

96.5

12

Western Michigan

94.7

Avg

Mid-American

100.6

 

 

#

Mideastern Athletic

PiRate

1

Norfolk St.

93.8

2

Bethune Cookman

93.5

3

Morgan St.

91.6

4

North Carolina Central

90.9

5

Florida A&M

89.8

6

North Carolina A&T

89.5

7

Coppin St.

88.6

8

South Carolina St.

88.3

9

Howard

81.8

10

MD Eastern Shore

81.8

11

Delaware St.

80.7

Avg

Mideastern Athletic

88.2

 

 

#

Missouri Valley

PiRate

1

Northern Iowa

106.5

2

Bradley

104.5

3

Loyola (Chi.)

103.7

4

Indiana St.

102.5

5

Missouri St.

101.8

6

Drake

101.3

7

Valparaiso

99.5

8

Southern Illinois

99.1

9

Illinois St.

97.3

10

Evansville

96.6

Avg

Missouri Valley

101.3

 

 

#

Mountain West

PiRate

1

San Diego St.

113.6

2

Utah St.

108.9

3

New Mexico

105.6

4

Nevada

105.4

5

Boise St.

104.6

6

Fresno St.

102.3

7

Colorado St.

101.7

8

UNLV

101.6

9

Air Force

99.9

10

Wyoming

92.1

11

San Jose St.

92.0

Avg

Mountain West

102.5

 

 

#

Northeast

PiRate

1

St. Francis (PA)

99.7

2

Sacred Heart

97.9

3

Bryant

97.2

4

Robert Morris

95.2

5

Long Island

94.6

6

Merrimack

92.9

7

Mount St. Mary’s

92.7

8

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.6

9

Wagner

91.2

10

St. Francis (NY)

89.9

11

Central Connecticut

81.3

Avg

Northeast

93.1

 

 

#

Ohio Valley

PiRate

1

Belmont

107.4

2

Murray St.

102.5

3

Austin Peay

98.5

4

Eastern Illinois

96.7

5

Jacksonville St.

95.9

6

Tennessee St.

95.2

7

Morehead St.

93.8

8

UT-Martin

91.4

9

SE Missouri

90.0

10

Eastern Kentucky

89.6

11

Tennessee Tech

87.6

12

SIU Edwardsville

87.6

Avg

Ohio Valley

94.7

 

 

#

Pac-12

PiRate

1

Arizona

117.0

2

Oregon

114.6

3

Colorado

111.6

4

Washington

110.8

5

Stanford

109.6

6

Oregon St.

107.7

7

Arizona St.

107.2

8

USC

107.1

9

Utah

105.6

10

UCLA

104.0

11

Washington St.

102.1

12

California

99.4

Avg

Pac-12

108.1

 

 

#

Patriot

PiRate

1

Colgate

102.2

2

Lafayette

97.7

3

Boston U

97.2

4

American

96.8

5

Navy

96.3

6

Bucknell

95.8

7

Loyola (MD)

95.6

8

Lehigh

94.4

9

Army

91.8

10

Holy Cross

88.2

Avg

Patriot

95.6

 

 

#

Southeastern

PiRate

1

Auburn

114.8

2

Kentucky

114.7

3

Florida

112.9

4

LSU

112.9

5

Arkansas

112.1

6

Alabama

110.6

7

Tennessee

110.0

8

Missouri

109.0

9

Georgia

108.3

10

Mississippi St.

108.3

11

Mississippi

105.1

12

South Carolina

103.9

13

Vanderbilt

103.2

14

Texas A&M

100.9

Avg

Southeastern

109.1

 

 

#

Southern

PiRate

1

East Tennessee St.

108.6

2

Furman

107.9

3

UNC Greensboro

106.2

4

Wofford

102.7

5

Western Carolina

100.8

6

Chattanooga

98.0

7

Samford

96.5

8

Mercer

94.2

9

VMI

92.5

10

Citadel

92.4

Avg

Southern

100.0

 

 

#

Southland

PiRate

1

Stephen F. Austin

102.4

2

UT Arlington

102.2

3

Sam Houston St.

99.8

4

Nicholls St.

98.4

5

Abilene Christian

96.4

6

Lamar

93.9

7

McNeese St.

93.8

8

Texas A&M CC

92.3

9

New Orleans

91.5

10

Central Arkansas

89.3

11

SE Louisiana

89.2

12

Northwestern St.

88.3

13

Houston Baptist

86.5

14

Incarnate Word

83.2

Avg

Southland

93.4

 

 

#

Southwestern Athletic

PiRate

1

Prairie View A&M

96.1

2

Texas Southern

93.4

3

Grambling

92.3

4

Alcorn St.

90.0

5

Southern

89.4

6

Jackson St.

88.7

7

Alabama A&M

87.8

8

Alabama St.

87.1

9

Arkansas Pine Bluff

85.0

10

Mississippi Valley St.

77.0

Avg

Southwestern Athletic

88.7

 

 

#

Summit

PiRate

1

South Dakota St.

101.3

2

North Dakota St.

101.2

3

Oral Roberts

101.0

4

Omaha

98.7

5

South Dakota

97.1

6

North Dakota

97.1

7

Purdue Fort Wayne

95.7

8

Western Illinois

89.4

9

Denver

89.3

Avg

Summit

96.8

 

 

#

Sun Belt

PiRate

1

Georgia St.

104.7

2

Texas St.

101.5

3

Georgia Southern

100.8

4

Coastal Carolina

100.8

5

Little Rock

100.2

6

Appalachian St.

99.9

7

South Alabama

99.1

8

Arkansas St.

95.3

9

Louisiana

95.2

10

Louisiana Monroe

95.1

11

Troy

94.4

Avg

Sun Belt

98.8

 

 

#

West Coast

PiRate

1

Gonzaga

117.6

2

BYU

112.7

3

Saint Mary’s

111.4

4

San Francisco

104.9

5

Santa Clara

101.2

6

Pacific

100.5

7

Pepperdine

100.2

8

San Diego

97.5

9

Loyola Marymount

97.2

10

Portland

95.1

Avg

West Coast

103.8

 

 

#

Western Athletic

PiRate

1

New Mexico St.

105.8

2

California Baptist

99.4

3

Grand Canyon

96.0

4

Missouri-KC

95.9

5

Seattle

95.7

6

Cal St. Bakersfield

95.6

7

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.0

8

Utah Valley

94.8

9

Chicago St.

77.8

Avg

Western Athletic

95.1

 

Conference Ratings

 

#

Conference

PiRate

1

Big Ten

112.3

2

Big 12

111.6

3

Big East

111.2

4

Atlantic Coast

109.4

5

Southeastern

109.1

6

Pac-12

108.1

7

American Athletic

105.7

8

West Coast

103.8

9

Atlantic 10

103.4

10

Mountain West

102.5

11

Missouri Valley

101.3

12

Mid-American

100.6

13

Southern

100.0

14

Conference USA

99.8

15

Ivy

99.6

16

Sun Belt

98.8

17

Colonial Athletic

97.6

18

Big Sky

96.9

19

Summit

96.8

20

Horizon

96.1

21

Big West

96.1

22

Patriot

95.6

23

Western Athletic

95.1

24

American East

94.9

25

Metro Atlantic

94.9

26

Ohio Valley

94.7

27

Atlantic Sun

94.4

28

Southland

93.4

29

Northeast

93.1

30

Big South

93.0

31

Southwestern Athletic

88.7

32

Mideastern Athletic

88.2

 

What Stats Best Correlate To Winning in 2020?

 

To the love of all mathematics professors, the 21st Century has been the dawning of the age of analytics.  What was once considered a fancy of eccentric mathematics geniuses, maybe more properly suited for discussion at meetings of the Prometheus Society, now advanced sports metrics are not just accepted, they are leading front and center when game strategy is determined.

In the present time, prospective coaches and managers are frequently given tests to gauge their proficiency in analytics.  One baseball manager endured a six-hour long interview that required him to look at spreadsheets full of analytics data and asked to show the general manager what data was crucial.

Obviously, professional sports teams are leaving no analytical stone unturned and sparing no expense to discover how to maximize team efficiency.  It has now moved to the collegiate level as well, as nearly each of the 353 Division 1 College Basketball teams has at least one person in charge of analyzing advanced metrics.

A large number of fans follow along in this mathematical calculation.  There are numerous sites online that compute many of the same metrics that are used to determine how a team should be playing.  The result–most college teams today know exactly how to strategize their rosters for what they hope is maximum efficiency.  Of course, the human element still greatly affects these decisions, because players are not robots with computer chips.  John Q. Jumpshot will not connect on 41.7% of his three-point attempts in every game.  Joe Powers cannot grab 11.1% of all the available rebounds in every game.  Andy Assistman cannot get an assist on exactly one out of every nine possessions every night.

In baseball, it has become known over time that certain statistics tend to correlate to winning more than others.  For instance batting average is a very poor indicator of winning percentage in Major League Baseball.  On-Base Average and Slugging Percentage are better statistics that have better correlations.  Weighted On-Base Average (a stat created by the incredible Tom Tango) is an even better indicator.  Fielding Independent Pitching, once thought to be the most ideal pitching metric, has slowly been given less “oomph” as data has shown that some pitchers can cause batters to consistently not hit balls on the meat part of the bat.  Knuckleball pitchers may not strike out a lot of batters, but then unless their pitch spins twice on its way to the plate, very few batters will get clean wood on the pitch.

Basketball also has certain statistics that correlate better with winning games than other statistics.  Obviously scoring margin is an excellent stat, but what we are looking for are the stats that lead to better scoring margin and thus winning percentage.  How does regular field goal percentage rate at finding winning teams, and can a coach simply go with his five best shooters and hope to maximize wins?

What about the exact opposite?  What if a coach plays the five players that best limit opponents’ shooting percentage?  Will this lead to more victories than playing the five best shooters?

What about rebounding, the ability to block shots, or the ability to steal the ball?  Or, what about having the five best players at protecting the ball and limiting turnovers?

Let’s take a look at some of the more popular statistics and see how they correlate to the current NCAA basketball season.  We will look at each stat and then compare it to won-loss record.  We will use the stats as provided by Sports-Reference.com and the NCAA itself.

 

Offensive Field Goal Percentage

Rk

Team

FG%

Won

Lost

1

Dayton

52.5

13

2

2

McNeese State

51.9

6

9

3

Kansas

51.0

12

2

4

Gonzaga

50.1

17

1

5

Loyola (IL)

50.1

10

6

6

Stephen F. Austin

49.7

13

3

7

New Mexico

49.4

14

3

8

Louisiana State

49.2

10

4

9

Arizona

48.8

11

4

10

Brigham Young

48.8

12

5

11

Duke

48.6

14

1

12

Saint Mary’s (CA)

48.5

15

3

13

Oregon

48.4

13

3

14

Air Force

48.3

8

8

15

Furman

48.3

14

3

16

Tennessee State

48.3

10

6

17

Michigan

48.2

11

4

18

Murray State

48.2

10

5

19

Santa Clara

48.2

14

3

20

Belmont

48.1

11

5

 

There is an obvious correlation here, as the object of the game is to put the ball through the hoop to score points and to score more points than the other team.  However, the correlation is not terrific.  McNeese State is the second best shooting team in the nation with this plain, old-fashioned statistic, and they are 6-9 this year.

In past seasons, the field goal percentage correlation has been rather consistently similar to this season.  It is a wonderful thing to be able to shoot the ball in the basket better than other teams, but on the whole, there are other statistics with better correlations.

Defensive Field Goal Percentage

 

Rk

Team

dFG%

Won

Lost

1

Virginia

34.7

11

3

2

Memphis

35.0

12

3

3

West Virginia

35.7

12

2

4

San Diego State

36.3

16

0

5

Ohio State

36.3

11

4

6

Sacramento State

36.4

9

4

7

Louisville

36.5

12

3

8

Liberty

36.5

17

1

9

Yale

36.6

10

4

10

Washington

37.0

11

5

11

Michigan State

37.0

13

3

12

Vermont

37.1

10

6

13

Kansas

37.1

12

2

14

Butler

37.2

14

1

15

Arizona

37.2

11

4

16

Rutgers

37.3

12

3

17

Maryland

37.3

13

2

18

Missouri

37.6

8

6

19

UC-Irvine

37.7

8

8

20

Baylor

37.8

12

1

 

On the surface, this looks like it has a higher correlation with winning than offensive field goal percentage, and as a former basketball coach, I will confirm that a team that can prevent the opponent from getting good shots will win more consistently than a team that can shoot a high percentage of shots.  A great shooting team will have a few off nights, but a great defensive team will be more consistent.

There are still a couple of teams in this metric that are not world-beaters.  Sacramento State isn’t a team that you will see in the Sweet 16 in 11 weeks.  But, on the other hand, it is highly conceivable that 19 of these 20 teams will make the Big Dance.  So, we must conclude that dFG% is more predictive of overall success than offensive FG%, but there are still better indicators.

 

3-point Field Goal Percentage 

 

Rk

Team

3pt%

Won

Lost

1

McNeese State

42.1

6

9

2

Saint Mary’s

42.1

15

3

3

Air Force

41.5

8

8

4

Indiana State

40.9

8

6

5

Marquette

40.5

11

4

6

Northeastern

40.3

9

8

7

Brigham Young

39.5

12

5

8

South Dakota

39.3

10

7

9

Vanderbilt

39.3

8

6

10

Oregon

39.2

13

3

11

Lafayette

39.1

9

5

12

Georgia State

39.0

11

6

13

Alcorn State

38.9

5

8

14

Nevada

38.7

10

6

15

North Florida

38.7

10

8

16

Portland

38.7

9

8

17

Gonzaga

38.6

17

1

18

Saint Peter’s

38.6

6

7

19

Wofford

38.6

10

6

20

Stanford

38.5

13

2

 

This is obviously a much  weaker correlation than the prior statistics.  Once again, McNeese State throws a monkey wrench into this metric.  The Cowboys have a couple players shooting over 50% from behind the arc, but look at their 6-9 record.  Additionally, a majority of the teams in this list will not be hearing their names called on Selection Sunday.  To be honest, some of these teams are going to start Spring Break after just one conference tournament game in March.

 

Defensive 3-point Field Goal Percentage 

 

Rk

Team

d3pt%

Won

Lost

1

Arkansas

22.7

12

2

2

West Virginia

23.5

12

2

3

Sacramento State

25.1

9

4

4

Nicholls State

25.6

10

6

5

Nevada

26.1

10

6

6

Georgia State

26.1

11

6

7

San Diego State

26.2

16

0

8

Butler

26.4

14

1

9

Virginia

26.5

11

3

10

Northern Kentucky

26.9

10

6

11

Akron

26.9

12

3

12

Florida International

27.0

11

5

13

East Tennessee State

27.2

14

3

14

Yale

27.3

10

4

15

Oklahoma State

27.5

9

5

16

Jacksonville

27.5

8

9

17

Idaho State

27.5

5

8

18

Missouri

27.6

8

6

19

George Washington

27.6

6

9

20

Liberty

27.7

17

1

 

Just like the regular field goal percentages, three-point field goal defense has a better correlation to winning than offensive three-point percentage.  It’s not the best metric, but the correlation is higher than the offensive counterpart, and it has a bit weaker correlation than regular dFG%.

 

Rebounding Margin

 

Rk

Team

Reb Marg

Won

Lost

1

Houston

11.8

12

3

2

Murray St.

10.9

10

5

3

Illinois

10.8

11

5

4

Michigan St.

10.5

13

3

5

Pacific

10.4

14

4

6

UC Irvine

10.2

8

8

7

Rutgers

10.1

12

3

8

North Carolina

9.7

8

7

9

Indiana

9.7

12

3

10

Duke

9.2

14

1

11

UCLA

8.6

8

7

12

CSU Bakersfield

8.6

7

10

13

SFA

8.5

13

3

14

New Hampshire

8.4

8

7

15

SMU

8.4

12

2

16

Southern Utah

8.4

10

5

17

Maryland

8.2

13

2

18

Gonzaga

8.1

17

1

19

Utah St.

7.9

13

5

20

West Virginia

7.9

12

2

 

Here we have an interesting correlation.  North Carolina is the only anomaly in the top 10 in this stat, and the Tar Heels have suffered four major injuries to their roster.  In that time, their rebounding margin has come down.

It is obvious that if one team gets additional chances to score and limits the opponent from getting additional chances to score, then weaker shooting accuracy can beat better shooting accuracy.

This statistic tends to be more consistent than other conventional statistics.  The coaches that produce big rebounding advantages throughout their careers tend to place their teams in the top 20 of this stat year after year.  Tom Izzo teams always finish high up in this stat.  Mick Cronin’s teams have routinely been in the top 20 while at Murray State, Cincinnati, and now UCLA.

There are some outliers here.  Cal St. Bakersfield and New Hampshire are not likely to be playing in the NCAA Tournament, but as a whole, this stat has a decent correlation for a straight counting stat.

Let’s now get into some advanced metrics with rate stats over counting stats.

True Shooting Percentage

College True Shooting percentage is:   Points*100/ 2*(FGA+{.475*FTA})

Rk

Team

TS%

Won

Lost

1

McNeese State

62.3

6

9

2

Dayton

62.2

13

2

3

Air Force

61.0

8

8

4

Saint Mary’s

59.4

15

3

5

Northeastern

59.3

9

8

6

Lafayette

59.1

9

5

7

Brigham Young

59.0

12

5

8

Kansas

58.9

12

2

9

Western Carolina

58.9

11

3

10

California Baptist

58.8

11

5

11

Furman

58.7

14

3

12

Santa Clara

58.7

14

3

13

Gonzaga

58.5

17

1

14

Northern Iowa

58.5

13

2

15

Liberty

58.5

17

1

16

Utah

58.4

10

4

17

New Mexico

58.4

14

3

18

Wofford

58.3

10

6

19

Arizona

58.2

11

4

20

Southern Methodist

58.1

12

2

 

Once again, we have McNeese State making a metric to be less positively correlative.  The Cowboys will obviously win some games this year just by shooting the other team out of the gym, but don’t look for McNeese to be making the field of 68.

 

Defensive True Shooting Percentage

Rk

Team

TS%

Won

Lost

1

Virginia

43.8

11

3

2

Memphis

44.5

12

3

3

Sacramento State

44.6

9

4

4

West Virginia

45.2

12

2

5

Liberty

45.2

17

1

6

Butler

45.2

14

1

7

Ohio State

45.4

11

4

8

Yale

45.5

10

4

9

Michigan State

45.6

13

3

10

Washington

45.9

11

5

11

Maryland

45.9

13

2

12

Louisville

46.0

12

3

13

Stanford

46.1

13

2

14

San Diego State

46.2

16

0

15

Baylor

46.2

12

1

16

Akron

46.2

12

3

17

Arkansas

46.3

12

2

18

Rutgers

46.5

12

3

19

Kansas

46.6

12

2

20

Temple

47.1

9

5

 

Now, we’re getting somewhere.  This rate stat returns 20 teams with winning records.  Sacramento State rates rather high here, but their 9-4 record is actually proof that this metric has a lot of value.  This metric has a nice correlation with points allowed per possession.  If a team rates in the top 20 here, and they have just average rebounding and turnover rates, they are going to win a majority of their games.

 

Let’s take a look at pace.  How have the teams with the fastest pace fared as opposed to the teams with the slowest pace?  Can we find anything here?

 

Fastest Pace

Rk

Team

Pace

Won

Lost

1

Houston Baptist

80.4

1

11

2

Mississippi Valley State

80.3

0

13

3

Alabama

78.1

8

6

4

Eastern Kentucky

78.1

5

11

5

Citadel

77.9

6

8

6

Central Arkansas

77.9

4

12

7

Eastern Washington

77.7

9

6

8

Florida International

77.5

11

5

9

Central Michigan

77.1

9

6

10

Long Island University

76.4

6

9

11

Stephen F. Austin

76.4

13

3

12

Delaware State

76.3

1

14

13

Marshall

76.2

8

8

14

Green Bay

76.2

7

10

15

Memphis

76.0

12

3

16

Texas Southern

75.7

4

11

17

St. John’s

75.6

11

5

18

Sam Houston State

75.5

11

5

19

Buffalo

75.5

9

6

20

Texas-San Antonio

75.5

7

9

 

Ugh!  We have two of the weakest teams in D1 basketball at the top of this list!  This is a negative correlation if we’ve ever seen one.  Is this something that has been consistent throughout the years in college basketball?  It hasn’t always been this way.  The great UCLA, UNLV, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Duke teams from the past were some of the most up-tempo teams in basketball.

What we have here are poor teams where the coaches run up-tempo to keep fans in the seats and to try to attract better recruits, promising them that they can lead the nation in scoring.  Fans will turn out to see their team lose 110-100.  If they lose 50-45, they will stay home and watch reruns of Barney Miller or look at Messi the Puma on Youtube.

Slowest Pace

Rk

Team

Pace

Won

Lost

1

Virginia

60.2

11

3

2

Navy

61.3

8

6

3

Liberty

62.3

17

1

4

Marist

64.4

2

11

5

Southern Illinois

64.4

8

8

6

Fairfield

64.5

5

9

7

Wisconsin

64.5

9

6

8

Butler

64.5

14

1

9

Sacramento State

64.8

9

4

10

Nevada-Las Vegas

65.0

8

9

11

Radford

65.1

7

7

12

Pacific

65.1

14

4

13

Purdue

65.2

9

7

14

UC-Santa Barbara

65.3

12

4

15

Merrimack

65.3

8

8

16

Saint Mary’s

65.3

15

3

17

Fresno State

65.4

5

11

18

Wofford

65.5

10

6

19

Maine

65.6

4

12

20

UC-Riverside

65.7

11

6

 

Once again, this isn’t the best correlation.  Rik Smits isn’t walking through the door at Marist.  Walt Frazier isn’t going to lead Southern Illinois to riches this year.  As a whole, this metric is only marginally better than the opposite.  And, in past years, teams that led in slowest pace were teams that played deliberate offenses trying to steal victories with less talent than the opponent.  However, with the 30-second shot clock, teams with the slowest pace in their games are more likely to be the ones that play smothering defenses that prevent opponents from getting cheap open shots.

 

Advanced Analytics

Up to now, we have shown you easy calculations.  You can find these numbers online with ease.  What about more advanced stats?  What if we start to combine multiple stats in a linear method?  How about we handicap each stat based on formula set out in the works of other metric experts?  Is their a better correlation to be found in a metric similar to Tom Tango’s wOBA?

We at the PiRate Ratings follow the Four Factors of basketball created by Dean Oliver two decades ago.  The Four Factors are reall eight factors, because they are applied to both offense and defense.  They are:

  1. Effective Field Goal Percentage

  2. Turnover Rate

  3. Rebound Rate

  4. Free Throw Rate

There are differing opinions on how to calculate FT rate.  The original formula was FTA/FGA or the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts.  Oliver believed that getting to the foul line was more important than free throw percentage.

Others altered this to FT Made/FGA, believing that adding FT% into the ability to get to the foul line was a better way to gauge success.  However, this stat can be a little misleading.  The team that is ahead in the final minutes frequently holds the ball to the end of the shot clock forcing the other team to foul.  Additionally, this means the leading team does not try to shoot a field goal, and thus this rate is artificially inflated.  And, since the leading team almost always wins, the correlation is stronger than it should be.

In 2011, on the Harvard Sports Analysis Blog, author John Ezekowitz offered an alternative that smoothed out the artificial inflation by removing the pace.  He believed that free throws made per 100 possessions was a better metric, and we concurred with his hypothesis.  Testing proved it to be a better indicator in the shot clock era.

 

Our PiRate Ratings uses an algorithm that combines The Four Factors Data with schedule strength to come up with a rating, so in essence our PiRate Rating for each team is a linear statistic similar to wOBA in baseball.  The one difference is that it takes wOBA and applies is to both offense and defense.  In essence, it is like combining offense, pitching, and fielding in baseball into one total cumulative stat.

 

Obviously, we are not going to reveal our algorithm to the public, but we can reveal the handicapped weightings that  have been accepted through the years by the analytics community.  To which, they are:

  1. Effective Field Goal Percentage 40%

  2. Turnover Rate 25%

  3. Rebound Rate 20%

  4. Free Throw Rate 15%

What if we calculated the Four Factors for every team and then applied this weighting above to find the top 20 teams in this linear formula?  Might it be more positively correlating than the other stats?

Here is the top 20 teams ranked by a combination of weighted Offensive Four Factors minus their weighted Defensive Four Factors.

 

Rk

Team

w 4F

Won

Lost

1

Houston

2.963

12

3

2

Pacific

2.886

14

4

3

UC-Irvine

2.885

8

8

4

North Carolina

2.851

8

7

5

Alabama-Birmingham

2.735

10

6

6

Illinois

2.677

11

5

7

Cal State Bakersfield

2.620

7

10

8

UCLA

2.610

8

7

9

Indiana

2.559

12

3

10

UC-Riverside

2.520

11

6

11

Missouri State

2.501

8

8

12

Tennessee State

2.500

10

6

13

Saint Peter’s

2.473

6

7

14

Nevada-Las Vegas

2.442

8

9

15

New Hampshire

2.316

8

7

16

Brown

2.271

7

6

17

Michigan State

2.262

13

3

18

Southern Methodist

2.204

12

2

19

Murray State

2.177

10

5

20

Navy

2.081

8

6

 

Are you a little bit surprised?  Did you expect this to end up with a perfect correlation, where the top 20 teams by won-loss record lined up perfectly one to 20?

This isn’t even all that positive of a correlation!  Houston is a good team, but Elvin Hayes and Don Chaney aren’t suiting up for the Cougars.  Phi Slamma Jamma this isn’t.  To even get to a national title contender this year, you have to go all the way down to #17 Michigan State.

What gives?  Ah, there is one major very important statistic missing here.

Let’s take a look at an unnamed baseball player.  We will call him Harold Horsehide so you cannot see who this real life baseball player is.  He is real, and he played first base and third base.  Here are his stats for one season in which he was named the Player of the Year by The Sporting News.

Batting Average: .317

On-base Average: .387

Slugging Percentage: .670

Doubles: 36

Triples: 14

Home Runs: 40

RBI: 126

Now, let’s compare him to another player.  We’ll call him Mr. Michael Carl.

Batting Average: .301

On-base Average: .426

Slugging Percentage: .495

Doubles: 32

Triples: 2

Home Runs: 23

RBI: 74

On the face of it, Harold Horsehide is a much better player than Michael Carl.  His stats blow Carl’s stats out of the water.  Harold is like Pacific in the example above, as his stats are rarely bettered in a season.  Michael’s stats are nice, but you could find stats that good, actually better, on every Major League roster today.

Ah, but there’s a big catch.  Harold Horsehide is actually former Los Angeles Angel/Florida Marlin/Chicago White Sox utility corner infielder Dallas McPherson.  But, these are not stats from any season he played in the Big Leagues.  These are his stellar 2004 Minor League stats with the Arkansas Travelers of the AA Texas League and the Salt Lake City Stingers of the AAA Pacific Coast League.  Throughout baseball, in 2004, the ball was the object that was juiced.

And, who is Michael Carl?  He’s Carl Michael Yastrzemski, Boston Red Sox Hall of Fame legend, and those stats shown are his numbers from 1968, the top year of the pitcher in modern Major League baseball history.

Yaz’s stats were much better and against much stronger pitching, plus his numbers must be compared to the rest of the American League, which hit a combined .230 with an on-base average of just .297, and a slugging percentage of just .339.

In other words, one cannot look at the advanced metrics alone without factoring in the strength of the opponents played.  Maybe you don’t see Kansas at the top of that final metric, but the Jayhawks have played a schedule to date even more difficult than what an average National Champion must face during March Madness!  While Pacific fattened up on teams you probably have never heard of, like Cal State Stanislaus and Pacific Union, Kansas has faced Duke, West Virginia, Villanova, Colorado, Stanford, Iowa State, Dayton, and BYU.  Their easier games include NCAA Tournament contenders East Tennessee State and UNC Greensboro.  ETSU has a win at LSU.

 

Conclusion: If you want a really successful metric that predicts future success, look at the Four Factors but then look at schedule strength.  Basketball is very much like thoroughbred horse racing.  The $10,000 claimer and the Grade 1 Classic horse may both win a 1 1/8 race at different tracks in the same time.  Put that claimer in the Kentucky Derby against the G1 winner, and he’s going to be farther out at the finish than the 1962 New York Mets.   Likewise, the top team in the Northeast Conference is not going to beat the bottom team in the Big East.  St. John’s would beat Robert Morris 98% of the time.  Apply the right schedule strength adjustment, and you get this top 20.

#

Team

PiRate

1

Duke

122.6

2

Kansas

121.8

3

Michigan St.

120.3

4

Gonzaga

117.6

5

Ohio St.

117.5

6

Arizona

117.0

7

Maryland

116.8

8

Louisville

116.1

9

Dayton

116.0

10

Baylor

115.7

11

Butler

115.4

12

Florida St.

115.1

13

Seton Hall

115.0

14

West Virginia

114.9

15

Auburn

114.8

16

Kentucky

114.7

17

Oregon

114.6

18

Michigan

113.9

19

San Diego St.

113.6

20

Penn St.

112.9

January 6, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 6, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:00 am

 

Date

1/6/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Duke

Kansas

Butler

Gonzaga

2

Auburn

San Diego St.

Baylor

Oregon

3

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

Maryland

West Virginia

4

Florida St.

Dayton

Louisville

Michigan

5

Penn St.

Villanova

Wichita St.

Arizona

6

Seton Hall

Memphis

Kentucky

Marquette

7

Creighton

Colorado

Iowa

Arkansas

8

Virginia

Texas Tech

BYU

Saint Mary’s

9

Wisconsin

Xavier

Florida

Stanford

10

Indiana

Houston

Oklahoma

Washington

11

VCU

LSU

Rutgers

Oklahoma St.

Purdue

N. Carolina St.

12

Liberty

Furman

S. F. Austin

Louisiana Tech

13

Yale

Kent St.

Vermont

Wright St.

14

Loyola (Chi.)

New Mexico St.

Charleston

UCSB

15

Murray St.

Little Rock

Colgate

Winthrop

16

Montana

Rider

N. Dakota St.

St. Francis (NY)

Grambling

Morgan St.

First Four Out

DePaul

Georgetown

USC

Minnesota

Next Four Out

Utah St.

St. John’s

Georgia

Texas

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 6, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:29 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Monday

 

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Monday’s PiRate Ratings

 

#

Team

PiRate

Conference

1

Duke

122.5

Atlantic Coast

2

Kansas

120.6

Big 12

3

Michigan St.

120.1

Big Ten

4

Ohio St.

118.1

Big Ten

5

Gonzaga

116.8

West Coast

6

Arizona

116.8

Pac-12

7

Maryland

116.3

Big Ten

8

Louisville

115.9

Atlantic Coast

9

Dayton

115.8

Atlantic 10

10

Butler

115.5

Big East

11

Auburn

115.5

Southeastern

12

Baylor

115.3

Big 12

13

Florida St.

114.8

Atlantic Coast

14

Oregon

114.5

Pac-12

15

Kentucky

114.4

Southeastern

16

Seton Hall

114.3

Big East

17

Michigan

114.0

Big Ten

18

West Virginia

113.9

Big 12

19

San Diego St.

113.7

Mountain West

20

Iowa

113.6

Big Ten

21

Penn St.

113.5

Big Ten

22

Texas Tech

113.2

Big 12

23

LSU

113.0

Southeastern

24

Memphis

112.9

American Athletic

25

Marquette

112.8

Big East

26

BYU

112.6

West Coast

27

Florida

112.5

Southeastern

28

Villanova

112.5

Big East

29

Purdue

112.4

Big Ten

30

Wisconsin

112.3

Big Ten

31

Houston

112.2

American Athletic

32

Arkansas

112.0

Southeastern

33

Illinois

112.0

Big Ten

34

Wichita St.

111.9

Big East

35

Colorado

111.6

Pac-12

36

Xavier

111.5

Big East

37

Minnesota

111.5

Big Ten

38

Saint Mary’s

111.4

West Coast

39

Indiana

111.2

Big Ten

40

VCU

111.2

Atlantic 10

41

Creighton

111.2

Big East

42

Rutgers

111.1

Big Ten

43

Virginia

111.1

Atlantic Coast

44

Washington

110.9

Pac-12

45

North Carolina St.

110.9

Atlantic Coast

46

Utah St.

110.0

Mountain West

47

Georgetown

110.0

Big East

48

Iowa St.

109.9

Big 12

49

Missouri

109.8

Southeastern

50

Oklahoma

109.8

Big 12

51

Alabama

109.7

Southeastern

52

Oklahoma St.

109.7

Big 12

53

North Carolina

109.4

Atlantic Coast

54

Mississippi St.

109.3

Southeastern

55

Tennessee

109.2

Southeastern

56

TCU

109.1

Big 12

57

Stanford

109.1

Pac-12

58

Louisiana Tech

108.9

Conference USA

59

Notre Dame

108.9

Atlantic Coast

60

Cincinnati

108.7

American Athletic

61

Georgia

108.6

Southeastern

62

Liberty

108.2

Atlantic Sun

63

Yale

108.2

Ivy

64

Temple

108.1

American Athletic

65

Richmond

108.0

Atlantic 10

66

St. John’s

108.0

Big East

67

Oregon St.

108.0

Pac-12

68

Syracuse

108.0

Atlantic Coast

69

East Tennessee St.

107.9

Southern

70

Furman

107.8

Southern

71

Virginia Tech

107.8

Atlantic Coast

72

Texas

107.7

Big 12

73

Providence

107.7

Big East

74

USC

107.4

Pac-12

75

Connecticut

107.2

American Athletic

76

DePaul

107.1

Big East

77

Duquesne

107.1

Atlantic 10

78

SMU

107.0

American Athletic

79

Belmont

107.0

Ohio Valley

80

Davidson

107.0

Atlantic 10

81

Vermont

107.0

American East

82

Arizona St.

106.8

Pac-12

83

UNC Greensboro

106.7

Southern

84

Rhode Island

106.5

Atlantic 10

85

Georgia Tech

106.4

Atlantic Coast

86

Pittsburgh

106.4

Atlantic Coast

87

Northern Iowa

106.3

Missouri Valley

88

Nevada

106.1

Mountain West

89

Akron

106.1

Mid-American

90

Clemson

106.1

Atlantic Coast

91

Kansas St.

106.0

Big 12

92

Mississippi

105.9

Southeastern

93

Miami (Fla.)

105.9

Atlantic Coast

94

New Mexico St.

105.6

Western Athletic

95

Utah

105.5

Pac-12

96

Wake Forest

105.4

Atlantic Coast

97

Harvard

105.3

Ivy

98

New Mexico

105.1

Mountain West

99

Kent St.

105.0

Mid-American

100

Western Kentucky

104.7

Conference USA

101

Toledo

104.6

Mid-American

102

Boise St.

104.6

Mountain West

103

Saint Louis

104.3

Atlantic 10

104

South Carolina

104.2

Southeastern

105

San Francisco

104.2

West Coast

106

Wright St.

104.2

Horizon

107

Tulsa

104.2

American Athletic

108

Georgia St.

104.1

Sun Belt

109

Ball St.

104.0

Mid-American

110

UCLA

104.0

Pac-12

111

Central Florida

103.9

American Athletic

112

Loyola (Chi.)

103.9

Missouri Valley

113

Northwestern

103.6

Big Ten

114

South Florida

103.5

American Athletic

115

Bradley

103.5

Missouri Valley

116

Stephen F. Austin

103.1

Southland

117

UT Arlington

103.0

Southland

118

UC Irvine

103.0

Big West

119

Charleston

102.9

Colonial Athletic

120

North Texas

102.7

Conference USA

121

Wofford

102.7

Southern

122

Fresno St.

102.7

Mountain West

123

Vanderbilt

102.6

Southeastern

124

Washington St.

102.5

Pac-12

125

Murray St.

102.4

Ohio Valley

126

Indiana St.

102.4

Missouri Valley

127

Northern Colorado

102.3

Big Sky

128

Penn

102.3

Ivy

129

St. Bonaventure

102.1

Atlantic 10

130

Santa Clara

102.0

West Coast

131

Radford

101.9

Big South

132

Northeastern

101.9

Colonial Athletic

133

Texas St.

101.9

Sun Belt

134

Nebraska

101.8

Big Ten

135

Missouri St.

101.8

Missouri Valley

136

Colorado St.

101.8

Mountain West

137

Colgate

101.7

Patriot

138

Stony Brook

101.6

American East

139

UNLV

101.6

Mountain West

140

Buffalo

101.5

Mid-American

141

Boston College

101.5

Atlantic Coast

142

Hofstra

101.5

Colonial Athletic

143

UTEP

101.4

Conference USA

144

Marshall

101.4

Conference USA

145

George Mason

101.3

Atlantic 10

146

North Dakota St.

101.2

Summit

147

Winthrop

101.1

Big South

148

Northern Kentucky

101.1

Horizon

149

South Dakota St.

101.1

Summit

150

Drake

100.9

Missouri Valley

151

Georgia Southern

100.9

Sun Belt

152

Eastern Washington

100.9

Big Sky

153

Oral Roberts

100.9

Summit

154

UC Santa Barbara

100.9

Big West

155

Appalachian St.

100.8

Sun Belt

156

William & Mary

100.8

Colonial Athletic

157

Rider

100.5

Metro Atlantic

158

Pacific

100.4

West Coast

159

Little Rock

100.4

Sun Belt

160

Texas A&M

100.4

Southeastern

161

Sam Houston St.

100.3

Southland

162

La Salle

100.3

Atlantic 10

163

Western Carolina

100.3

Southern

164

Valparaiso

100.2

Missouri Valley

165

Pepperdine

100.2

West Coast

166

North Florida

100.1

Atlantic Sun

167

Southern Utah

100.0

Big Sky

168

Hawaii

100.0

Big West

169

Coastal Carolina

100.0

Sun Belt

170

Bowling Green

99.9

Mid-American

171

Florida Int’l.

99.8

Conference USA

172

Northern Illinois

99.8

Mid-American

173

Charlotte

99.8

Conference USA

174

Tulane

99.7

American Athletic

175

UAB

99.4

Conference USA

176

Massachusetts

99.3

Atlantic 10

177

Old Dominion

99.3

Conference USA

178

St. Francis (PA)

99.3

Northeast

179

Central Michigan

99.1

Mid-American

180

California

99.0

Pac-12

181

Towson

98.9

Colonial Athletic

182

California Baptist

98.9

Western Athletic

183

Delaware

98.8

Colonial Athletic

184

Air Force

98.8

Mountain West

185

Florida Atlantic

98.7

Conference USA

186

San Diego

98.5

West Coast

187

Southern Illinois

98.4

Missouri Valley

188

Sacramento St.

98.3

Big Sky

189

Omaha

98.3

Summit

190

Siena

98.2

Metro Atlantic

191

Austin Peay

98.1

Ohio Valley

192

Princeton

98.0

Ivy

193

Montana

97.9

Big Sky

194

Sacred Heart

97.8

Northeast

195

Nicholls St.

97.7

Southland

196

Green Bay

97.7

Horizon

197

Chattanooga

97.6

Southern

198

Ohio

97.5

Mid-American

199

South Alabama

97.5

Sun Belt

200

Evansville

97.4

Missouri Valley

201

North Dakota

97.3

Summit

202

Lafayette

97.3

Patriot

203

Illinois St.

97.3

Missouri Valley

204

Portland St.

97.3

Big Sky

205

Dartmouth

97.2

Ivy

206

South Dakota

97.2

Summit

207

Miami (O)

97.2

Mid-American

208

Loyola Marymount

97.2

West Coast

209

Brown

97.0

Ivy

210

Eastern Illinois

97.0

Ohio Valley

211

Abilene Christian

97.0

Southland

212

UTSA

96.9

Conference USA

213

Bryant

96.9

Northeast

214

Oakland

96.8

Horizon

215

Rice

96.7

Conference USA

216

Eastern Michigan

96.6

Mid-American

217

Boston U

96.6

Patriot

218

Montana St.

96.5

Big Sky

219

Samford

96.5

Southern

220

Monmouth

96.5

Metro Atlantic

221

Albany

96.5

American East

222

Bucknell

96.5

Patriot

223

Youngstown St.

96.4

Horizon

224

Missouri-KC

96.4

Western Athletic

225

Loyola (MD)

96.4

Patriot

226

Lipscomb

96.4

Atlantic Sun

227

UC Riverside

96.3

Big West

228

American

96.3

Patriot

229

Fairfield

96.2

Metro Atlantic

230

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.1

Western Athletic

231

Grand Canyon

96.0

Western Athletic

232

Louisiana Monroe

96.0

Sun Belt

233

Seattle

96.0

Western Athletic

234

Tennessee St.

95.9

Ohio Valley

235

Northern Arizona

95.9

Big Sky

236

Navy

95.8

Patriot

237

UC Davis

95.8

Big West

238

Jacksonville St.

95.8

Ohio Valley

239

Prairie View A&M

95.7

Southwestern Athl.

240

Canisius

95.6

Metro Atlantic

241

Purdue Fort Wayne

95.5

Summit

242

East Carolina

95.5

American Athletic

243

Campbell

95.5

Big South

244

Arkansas St.

95.5

Sun Belt

245

UMass Lowell

95.5

American East

246

Columbia

95.4

Ivy

247

Drexel

95.4

Colonial Athletic

248

Iona

95.2

Metro Atlantic

249

George Washington

95.1

Atlantic 10

250

Lehigh

95.0

Patriot

251

Louisiana

95.0

Sun Belt

252

Long Island

95.0

Northeast

253

Gardner-Webb

95.0

Big South

254

Portland

95.0

West Coast

255

Jacksonville

94.9

Atlantic Sun

256

Milwaukee

94.9

Horizon

257

Utah Valley

94.9

Western Athletic

258

Manhattan

94.8

Metro Atlantic

259

Illinois Chicago

94.8

Horizon

260

UNC Asheville

94.7

Big South

261

Quinnipiac

94.7

Metro Atlantic

262

Western Michigan

94.7

Mid-American

263

Saint Joseph’s

94.7

Atlantic 10

264

Fordham

94.6

Atlantic 10

265

Texas Southern

94.6

Southwestern Athl.

266

James Madison

94.6

Colonial Athletic

267

Lamar

94.3

Southland

268

Robert Morris

94.2

Northeast

269

Saint Peter’s

94.2

Metro Atlantic

270

Mercer

94.2

Southern

271

Cal St. Fullerton

94.2

Big West

272

UT Rio Grande Valley

94.1

Western Athletic

273

Morehead St.

94.0

Ohio Valley

274

Cal St. Northridge

93.8

Big West

275

Southern Miss.

93.7

Conference USA

276

Weber St.

93.6

Big Sky

277

New Hampshire

93.5

American East

278

McNeese St.

93.2

Southland

279

Middle Tennessee

93.1

Conference USA

280

Mount St. Mary’s

92.8

Northeast

281

Detroit

92.7

Horizon

282

Cornell

92.7

Ivy

283

VMI

92.7

Southern

284

Troy

92.7

Sun Belt

285

Merrimack

92.6

Northeast

286

UM Baltimore Co.

92.6

American East

287

NJIT

92.6

Atlantic Sun

288

Grambling

92.4

Southwestern Athl.

289

Norfolk St.

92.2

Mideastern Athletic

290

Bethune Cookman

92.2

Mideastern Athletic

291

North Alabama

92.1

Atlantic Sun

292

Wyoming

92.1

Mountain West

293

Idaho St.

92.0

Big Sky

294

Citadel

92.0

Southern

295

Army

92.0

Patriot

296

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.5

Northeast

297

Wagner

91.5

Northeast

298

New Orleans

91.5

Southland

299

IUPUI

91.4

Horizon

300

Long Beach St.

91.3

Big West

301

Texas A&M CC

91.2

Southland

302

San Jose St.

91.2

Mountain West

303

Hartford

91.1

American East

304

Morgan St.

91.1

Mideastern Athletic

305

Niagara

91.0

Metro Atlantic

306

Charleston Southern

90.9

Big South

307

St. Francis (NY)

90.9

Northeast

308

UNC Wilmington

90.9

Colonial Athletic

309

North Carolina Central

90.8

Mideastern Athletic

310

Cleveland St.

90.8

Horizon

311

SE Missouri

90.5

Ohio Valley

312

UT-Martin

90.4

Ohio Valley

313

Elon

90.3

Colonial Athletic

314

Idaho

90.2

Big Sky

315

Florida Gulf Coast

90.2

Atlantic Sun

316

Hampton

90.2

Big South

317

Stetson

90.1

Atlantic Sun

318

Florida A&M

90.0

Mideastern Athletic

319

Western Illinois

89.8

Summit

320

Coppin St.

89.7

Mideastern Athletic

321

Cal Poly

89.7

Big West

322

Denver

89.5

Summit

323

Binghamton

89.5

American East

324

Jackson St.

89.4

Southwestern Athl.

325

Central Arkansas

89.4

Southland

326

Eastern Kentucky

89.3

Ohio Valley

327

USC Upstate

89.2

Big South

328

North Carolina A&T

89.2

Mideastern Athletic

329

Southern

89.2

Southwestern Athl.

330

Longwood

89.1

Big South

331

South Carolina St.

88.8

Mideastern Athletic

332

SE Louisiana

88.7

Southland

333

Holy Cross

88.6

Patriot

334

Alcorn St.

88.4

Southwestern Athl.

335

Tennessee Tech

88.1

Ohio Valley

336

Northwestern St.

88.0

Southland

337

Presbyterian

87.6

Big South

338

SIU Edwardsville

87.4

Ohio Valley

339

Alabama St.

86.8

Southwestern Athl.

340

Houston Baptist

86.7

Southland

341

High Point

86.6

Big South

342

Maine

86.5

American East

343

Alabama A&M

86.4

Southwestern Athl.

344

Marist

86.2

Metro Atlantic

345

Arkansas Pine Bluff

85.0

Southwestern Athl.

346

Kennesaw St.

84.6

Atlantic Sun

347

Incarnate Word

83.5

Southland

348

Howard

82.9

Mideastern Athletic

349

MD Eastern Shore

81.7

Mideastern Athletic

350

Central Connecticut

80.9

Northeast

351

Delaware St.

80.8

Mideastern Athletic

352

Chicago St.

78.1

Western Athletic

353

Mississippi Valley St.

77.4

Southwestern Athl.

 

Alphabetical

 

Team

PiRate

Conf.

Abilene Christian

97.0

Southland

Air Force

98.8

Mountain West

Akron

106.1

Mid-American

Alabama

109.7

Southeastern

Alabama A&M

86.4

Southwestern Athl.

Alabama St.

86.8

Southwestern Athl.

Albany

96.5

American East

Alcorn St.

88.4

Southwestern Athl.

American

96.3

Patriot

Appalachian St.

100.8

Sun Belt

Arizona

116.8

Pac-12

Arizona St.

106.8

Pac-12

Arkansas

112.0

Southeastern

Arkansas Pine Bluff

85.0

Southwestern Athl.

Arkansas St.

95.5

Sun Belt

Army

92.0

Patriot

Auburn

115.5

Southeastern

Austin Peay

98.1

Ohio Valley

Ball St.

104.0

Mid-American

Baylor

115.3

Big 12

Belmont

107.0

Ohio Valley

Bethune Cookman

92.2

Mideastern Athletic

Binghamton

89.5

American East

Boise St.

104.6

Mountain West

Boston College

101.5

Atlantic Coast

Boston U

96.6

Patriot

Bowling Green

99.9

Mid-American

Bradley

103.5

Missouri Valley

Brown

97.0

Ivy

Bryant

96.9

Northeast

Bucknell

96.5

Patriot

Buffalo

101.5

Mid-American

Butler

115.5

Big East

BYU

112.6

West Coast

Cal Poly

89.7

Big West

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.1

Western Athletic

Cal St. Fullerton

94.2

Big West

Cal St. Northridge

93.8

Big West

California

99.0

Pac-12

California Baptist

98.9

Western Athletic

Campbell

95.5

Big South

Canisius

95.6

Metro Atlantic

Central Arkansas

89.4

Southland

Central Connecticut

80.9

Northeast

Central Florida

103.9

American Athletic

Central Michigan

99.1

Mid-American

Charleston

102.9

Colonial Athletic

Charleston Southern

90.9

Big South

Charlotte

99.8

Conference USA

Chattanooga

97.6

Southern

Chicago St.

78.1

Western Athletic

Cincinnati

108.7

American Athletic

Citadel

92.0

Southern

Clemson

106.1

Atlantic Coast

Cleveland St.

90.8

Horizon

Coastal Carolina

100.0

Sun Belt

Colgate

101.7

Patriot

Colorado

111.6

Pac-12

Colorado St.

101.8

Mountain West

Columbia

95.4

Ivy

Connecticut

107.2

American Athletic

Coppin St.

89.7

Mideastern Athletic

Cornell

92.7

Ivy

Creighton

111.2

Big East

Dartmouth

97.2

Ivy

Davidson

107.0

Atlantic 10

Dayton

115.8

Atlantic 10

Delaware

98.8

Colonial Athletic

Delaware St.

80.8

Mideastern Athletic

Denver

89.5

Summit

DePaul

107.1

Big East

Detroit

92.7

Horizon

Drake

100.9

Missouri Valley

Drexel

95.4

Colonial Athletic

Duke

122.5

Atlantic Coast

Duquesne

107.1

Atlantic 10

East Carolina

95.5

American Athletic

East Tennessee St.

107.9

Southern

Eastern Illinois

97.0

Ohio Valley

Eastern Kentucky

89.3

Ohio Valley

Eastern Michigan

96.6

Mid-American

Eastern Washington

100.9

Big Sky

Elon

90.3

Colonial Athletic

Evansville

97.4

Missouri Valley

Fairfield

96.2

Metro Atlantic

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.5

Northeast

Florida

112.5

Southeastern

Florida A&M

90.0

Mideastern Athletic

Florida Atlantic

98.7

Conference USA

Florida Gulf Coast

90.2

Atlantic Sun

Florida Int’l.

99.8

Conference USA

Florida St.

114.8

Atlantic Coast

Fordham

94.6

Atlantic 10

Fresno St.

102.7

Mountain West

Furman

107.8

Southern

Gardner-Webb

95.0

Big South

George Mason

101.3

Atlantic 10

George Washington

95.1

Atlantic 10

Georgetown

110.0

Big East

Georgia

108.6

Southeastern

Georgia Southern

100.9

Sun Belt

Georgia St.

104.1

Sun Belt

Georgia Tech

106.4

Atlantic Coast

Gonzaga

116.8

West Coast

Grambling

92.4

Southwestern Athl.

Grand Canyon

96.0

Western Athletic

Green Bay

97.7

Horizon

Hampton

90.2

Big South

Hartford

91.1

American East

Harvard

105.3

Ivy

Hawaii

100.0

Big West

High Point

86.6

Big South

Hofstra

101.5

Colonial Athletic

Holy Cross

88.6

Patriot

Houston

112.2

American Athletic

Houston Baptist

86.7

Southland

Howard

82.9

Mideastern Athletic

Idaho

90.2

Big Sky

Idaho St.

92.0

Big Sky

Illinois

112.0

Big Ten

Illinois Chicago

94.8

Horizon

Illinois St.

97.3

Missouri Valley

Incarnate Word

83.5

Southland

Indiana

111.2

Big Ten

Indiana St.

102.4

Missouri Valley

Iona

95.2

Metro Atlantic

Iowa

113.6

Big Ten

Iowa St.

109.9

Big 12

IUPUI

91.4

Horizon

Jackson St.

89.4

Southwestern Athl.

Jacksonville

94.9

Atlantic Sun

Jacksonville St.

95.8

Ohio Valley

James Madison

94.6

Colonial Athletic

Kansas

120.6

Big 12

Kansas St.

106.0

Big 12

Kennesaw St.

84.6

Atlantic Sun

Kent St.

105.0

Mid-American

Kentucky

114.4

Southeastern

La Salle

100.3

Atlantic 10

Lafayette

97.3

Patriot

Lamar

94.3

Southland

Lehigh

95.0

Patriot

Liberty

108.2

Atlantic Sun

Lipscomb

96.4

Atlantic Sun

Little Rock

100.4

Sun Belt

Long Beach St.

91.3

Big West

Long Island

95.0

Northeast

Longwood

89.1

Big South

Louisiana

95.0

Sun Belt

Louisiana Monroe

96.0

Sun Belt

Louisiana Tech

108.9

Conference USA

Louisville

115.9

Atlantic Coast

Loyola (Chi.)

103.9

Missouri Valley

Loyola Marymount

97.2

West Coast

Loyola (MD)

96.4

Patriot

LSU

113.0

Southeastern

Maine

86.5

American East

Manhattan

94.8

Metro Atlantic

Marist

86.2

Metro Atlantic

Marquette

112.8

Big East

Marshall

101.4

Conference USA

Maryland

116.3

Big Ten

Massachusetts

99.3

Atlantic 10

McNeese St.

93.2

Southland

MD Eastern Shore

81.7

Mideastern Athletic

Memphis

112.9

American Athletic

Mercer

94.2

Southern

Merrimack

92.6

Northeast

Miami (Fla.)

105.9

Atlantic Coast

Miami (O)

97.2

Mid-American

Michigan

114.0

Big Ten

Michigan St.

120.1

Big Ten

Middle Tennessee

93.1

Conference USA

Milwaukee

94.9

Horizon

Minnesota

111.5

Big Ten

Mississippi

105.9

Southeastern

Mississippi St.

109.3

Southeastern

Mississippi Valley St.

77.4

Southwestern Athl.

Missouri

109.8

Southeastern

Missouri-KC

96.4

Western Athletic

Missouri St.

101.8

Missouri Valley

Monmouth

96.5

Metro Atlantic

Montana

97.9

Big Sky

Montana St.

96.5

Big Sky

Morehead St.

94.0

Ohio Valley

Morgan St.

91.1

Mideastern Athletic

Mount St. Mary’s

92.8

Northeast

Murray St.

102.4

Ohio Valley

Navy

95.8

Patriot

Nebraska

101.8

Big Ten

Nevada

106.1

Mountain West

New Hampshire

93.5

American East

New Mexico

105.1

Mountain West

New Mexico St.

105.6

Western Athletic

New Orleans

91.5

Southland

Niagara

91.0

Metro Atlantic

Nicholls St.

97.7

Southland

NJIT

92.6

Atlantic Sun

Norfolk St.

92.2

Mideastern Athletic

North Alabama

92.1

Atlantic Sun

North Carolina

109.4

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina A&T

89.2

Mideastern Athletic

North Carolina Central

90.8

Mideastern Athletic

North Carolina St.

110.9

Atlantic Coast

North Dakota

97.3

Summit

North Dakota St.

101.2

Summit

North Florida

100.1

Atlantic Sun

North Texas

102.7

Conference USA

Northeastern

101.9

Colonial Athletic

Northern Arizona

95.9

Big Sky

Northern Colorado

102.3

Big Sky

Northern Illinois

99.8

Mid-American

Northern Iowa

106.3

Missouri Valley

Northern Kentucky

101.1

Horizon

Northwestern

103.6

Big Ten

Northwestern St.

88.0

Southland

Notre Dame

108.9

Atlantic Coast

Oakland

96.8

Horizon

Ohio

97.5

Mid-American

Ohio St.

118.1

Big Ten

Oklahoma

109.8

Big 12

Oklahoma St.

109.7

Big 12

Old Dominion

99.3

Conference USA

Omaha

98.3

Summit

Oral Roberts

100.9

Summit

Oregon

114.5

Pac-12

Oregon St.

108.0

Pac-12

Pacific

100.4

West Coast

Penn

102.3

Ivy

Penn St.

113.5

Big Ten

Pepperdine

100.2

West Coast

Pittsburgh

106.4

Atlantic Coast

Portland

95.0

West Coast

Portland St.

97.3

Big Sky

Prairie View A&M

95.7

Southwestern Athl.

Presbyterian

87.6

Big South

Princeton

98.0

Ivy

Providence

107.7

Big East

Purdue

112.4

Big Ten

Purdue Fort Wayne

95.5

Summit

Quinnipiac

94.7

Metro Atlantic

Radford

101.9

Big South

Rhode Island

106.5

Atlantic 10

Rice

96.7

Conference USA

Richmond

108.0

Atlantic 10

Rider

100.5

Metro Atlantic

Robert Morris

94.2

Northeast

Rutgers

111.1

Big Ten

Sacramento St.

98.3

Big Sky

Sacred Heart

97.8

Northeast

Saint Joseph’s

94.7

Atlantic 10

Saint Louis

104.3

Atlantic 10

Saint Mary’s

111.4

West Coast

Saint Peter’s

94.2

Metro Atlantic

Sam Houston St.

100.3

Southland

Samford

96.5

Southern

San Diego

98.5

West Coast

San Diego St.

113.7

Mountain West

San Francisco

104.2

West Coast

San Jose St.

91.2

Mountain West

Santa Clara

102.0

West Coast

SE Louisiana

88.7

Southland

SE Missouri

90.5

Ohio Valley

Seattle

96.0

Western Athletic

Seton Hall

114.3

Big East

Siena

98.2

Metro Atlantic

SIU Edwardsville

87.4

Ohio Valley

SMU

107.0

American Athletic

South Alabama

97.5

Sun Belt

South Carolina

104.2

Southeastern

South Carolina St.

88.8

Mideastern Athletic

South Dakota

97.2

Summit

South Dakota St.

101.1

Summit

South Florida

103.5

American Athletic

Southern

89.2

Southwestern Athl.

Southern Illinois

98.4

Missouri Valley

Southern Miss.

93.7

Conference USA

Southern Utah

100.0

Big Sky

St. Bonaventure

102.1

Atlantic 10

St. Francis (NY)

90.9

Northeast

St. Francis (PA)

99.3

Northeast

St. John’s

108.0

Big East

Stanford

109.1

Pac-12

Stephen F. Austin

103.1

Southland

Stetson

90.1

Atlantic Sun

Stony Brook

101.6

American East

Syracuse

108.0

Atlantic Coast

TCU

109.1

Big 12

Temple

108.1

American Athletic

Tennessee

109.2

Southeastern

Tennessee St.

95.9

Ohio Valley

Tennessee Tech

88.1

Ohio Valley

Texas

107.7

Big 12

Texas A&M

100.4

Southeastern

Texas A&M CC

91.2

Southland

Texas Southern

94.6

Southwestern Athl.

Texas St.

101.9

Sun Belt

Texas Tech

113.2

Big 12

Toledo

104.6

Mid-American

Towson

98.9

Colonial Athletic

Troy

92.7

Sun Belt

Tulane

99.7

American Athletic

Tulsa

104.2

American Athletic

UAB

99.4

Conference USA

UC Davis

95.8

Big West

UC Irvine

103.0

Big West

UC Riverside

96.3

Big West

UC Santa Barbara

100.9

Big West

UCLA

104.0

Pac-12

UM Baltimore Co.

92.6

American East

UMass Lowell

95.5

American East

UNC Asheville

94.7

Big South

UNC Greensboro

106.7

Southern

UNC Wilmington

90.9

Colonial Athletic

UNLV

101.6

Mountain West

USC

107.4

Pac-12

USC Upstate

89.2

Big South

UT Arlington

103.0

Southland

UT Rio Grande Valley

94.1

Western Athletic

UT-Martin

90.4

Ohio Valley

Utah

105.5

Pac-12

Utah St.

110.0

Mountain West

Utah Valley

94.9

Western Athletic

UTEP

101.4

Conference USA

UTSA

96.9

Conference USA

Valparaiso

100.2

Missouri Valley

Vanderbilt

102.6

Southeastern

VCU

111.2

Atlantic 10

Vermont

107.0

American East

Villanova

112.5

Big East

Virginia

111.1

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Tech

107.8

Atlantic Coast

VMI

92.7

Southern

Wagner

91.5

Northeast

Wake Forest

105.4

Atlantic Coast

Washington

110.9

Pac-12

Washington St.

102.5

Pac-12

Weber St.

93.6

Big Sky

West Virginia

113.9

Big 12

Western Carolina

100.3

Southern

Western Illinois

89.8

Summit

Western Kentucky

104.7

Conference USA

Western Michigan

94.7

Mid-American

Wichita St.

111.9

Big East

William & Mary

100.8

Colonial Athletic

Winthrop

101.1

Big South

Wisconsin

112.3

Big Ten

Wofford

102.7

Southern

Wright St.

104.2

Horizon

Wyoming

92.1

Mountain West

Xavier

111.5

Big East

Yale

108.2

Ivy

Youngstown St.

96.4

Horizon

 

By Conference

 

#

American Athletic

PiRate

1

Memphis

112.9

2

Houston

112.2

3

Cincinnati

108.7

4

Temple

108.1

5

Connecticut

107.2

6

SMU

107.0

7

Tulsa

104.2

8

Central Florida

103.9

9

South Florida

103.5

10

Tulane

99.7

11

East Carolina

95.5

Avg

American Athletic

105.7

#

American East

PiRate

1

Vermont

107.0

2

Stony Brook

101.6

3

Albany

96.5

4

UMass Lowell

95.5

5

New Hampshire

93.5

6

UM Baltimore Co.

92.6

7

Hartford

91.1

8

Binghamton

89.5

9

Maine

86.5

Avg

American East

94.8

#

Atlantic 10

PiRate

1

Dayton

115.8

2

VCU

111.2

3

Richmond

108.0

4

Duquesne

107.1

5

Davidson

107.0

6

Rhode Island

106.5

7

Saint Louis

104.3

8

St. Bonaventure

102.1

9

George Mason

101.3

10

La Salle

100.3

11

Massachusetts

99.3

12

George Washington

95.1

13

Saint Joseph’s

94.7

14

Fordham

94.6

Avg.

Atlantic 10

103.4

#

Atlantic Coast

PiRate

1

Duke

122.5

2

Louisville

115.9

3

Florida St.

114.8

4

Virginia

111.1

5

North Carolina St.

110.9

6

North Carolina

109.4

7

Notre Dame

108.9

8

Syracuse

108.0

9

Virginia Tech

107.8

10

Georgia Tech

106.4

11

Pittsburgh

106.4

12

Clemson

106.1

13

Miami (Fla.)

105.9

14

Wake Forest

105.4

15

Boston College

101.5

Avg

Atlantic Coast

109.4

#

Atlantic Sun

PiRate

1

Liberty

108.2

2

North Florida

100.1

3

Lipscomb

96.4

4

Jacksonville

94.9

5

NJIT

92.6

6

North Alabama

92.1

7

Florida Gulf Coast

90.2

8

Stetson

90.1

9

Kennesaw St.

84.6

Avg

Atlantic Sun

94.3

#

Big 12

PiRate

1

Kansas

120.6

2

Baylor

115.3

3

West Virginia

113.9

4

Texas Tech

113.2

5

Iowa St.

109.9

6

Oklahoma

109.8

7

Oklahoma St.

109.7

8

TCU

109.1

9

Texas

107.7

10

Kansas St.

106.0

Avg

Big 12

111.5

#

Big East

PiRate

1

Butler

115.5

2

Seton Hall

114.3

3

Marquette

112.8

4

Villanova

112.5

5

Wichita St.

111.9

6

Xavier

111.5

7

Creighton

111.2

8

Georgetown

110.0

9

St. John’s

108.0

10

Providence

107.7

11

DePaul

107.1

Avg

Big East

111.1

#

Big Sky

PiRate

1

Northern Colorado

102.3

2

Eastern Washington

100.9

3

Southern Utah

100.0

4

Sacramento St.

98.3

5

Montana

97.9

6

Portland St.

97.3

7

Montana St.

96.5

8

Northern Arizona

95.9

9

Weber St.

93.6

10

Idaho St.

92.0

11

Idaho

90.2

#

Big Sky

96.8

#

Big South

PiRate

1

Radford

101.9

2

Winthrop

101.1

3

Campbell

95.5

4

Gardner-Webb

95.0

5

UNC Asheville

94.7

6

Charleston Southern

90.9

7

Hampton

90.2

8

USC Upstate

89.2

9

Longwood

89.1

10

Presbyterian

87.6

11

High Point

86.6

Avg

Big South

92.9

#

Big Ten

PiRate

1

Michigan St.

120.1

2

Ohio St.

118.1

3

Maryland

116.3

4

Michigan

114.0

5

Iowa

113.6

6

Penn St.

113.5

7

Purdue

112.4

8

Wisconsin

112.3

9

Illinois

112.0

10

Minnesota

111.5

11

Indiana

111.2

12

Rutgers

111.1

13

Northwestern

103.6

14

Nebraska

101.8

Avg

Big Ten

112.2

#

Big West

PiRate

1

UC Irvine

103.0

2

UC Santa Barbara

100.9

3

Hawaii

100.0

4

UC Riverside

96.3

5

UC Davis

95.8

6

Cal St. Fullerton

94.2

7

Cal St. Northridge

93.8

8

Long Beach St.

91.3

9

Cal Poly

89.7

Avg

Big West

96.1

#

Colonial Athletic

PiRate

1

Charleston

102.9

2

Northeastern

101.9

3

Hofstra

101.5

4

William & Mary

100.8

5

Towson

98.9

6

Delaware

98.8

7

Drexel

95.4

8

James Madison

94.6

9

UNC Wilmington

90.9

10

Elon

90.3

Avg

Colonial Athletic

97.6

#

Conference USA

PiRate

1

Louisiana Tech

108.9

2

Western Kentucky

104.7

3

North Texas

102.7

4

UTEP

101.4

5

Marshall

101.4

6

Florida Int’l.

99.8

7

Charlotte

99.8

8

UAB

99.4

9

Old Dominion

99.3

10

Florida Atlantic

98.7

11

UTSA

96.9

12

Rice

96.7

13

Southern Miss.

93.7

14

Middle Tennessee

93.1

Avg

Conference USA

99.8

#

Horizon

PiRate

1

Wright St.

104.2

2

Northern Kentucky

101.1

3

Green Bay

97.7

4

Oakland

96.8

5

Youngstown St.

96.4

6

Milwaukee

94.9

7

Illinois Chicago

94.8

8

Detroit

92.7

9

IUPUI

91.4

10

Cleveland St.

90.8

Avg

Horizon

96.1

#

Ivy

PiRate

1

Yale

108.2

2

Harvard

105.3

3

Penn

102.3

4

Princeton

98.0

5

Dartmouth

97.2

6

Brown

97.0

7

Columbia

95.4

8

Cornell

92.7

Avg

Ivy

99.5

#

Metro Atlantic

PiRate

1

Rider

100.5

2

Siena

98.2

3

Monmouth

96.5

4

Fairfield

96.2

5

Canisius

95.6

6

Iona

95.2

7

Manhattan

94.8

8

Quinnipiac

94.7

9

Saint Peter’s

94.2

10

Niagara

91.0

11

Marist

86.2

Avg

Metro Atlantic

94.8

#

Mid-American

PiRate

1

Akron

106.1

2

Kent St.

105.0

3

Toledo

104.6

4

Ball St.

104.0

5

Buffalo

101.5

6

Bowling Green

99.9

7

Northern Illinois

99.8

8

Central Michigan

99.1

9

Ohio

97.5

10

Miami (O)

97.2

11

Eastern Michigan

96.6

12

Western Michigan

94.7

Avg

Mid-American

100.5

#

Mideastern Athletic

PiRate

1

Norfolk St.

92.2

2

Bethune Cookman

92.2

3

Morgan St.

91.1

4

North Carolina Central

90.8

5

Florida A&M

90.0

6

Coppin St.

89.7

7

North Carolina A&T

89.2

8

South Carolina St.

88.8

9

Howard

82.9

10

MD Eastern Shore

81.7

11

Delaware St.

80.8

Avg

Mideastern Athletic

88.1

#

Missouri Valley

PiRate

1

Northern Iowa

106.3

2

Loyola (Chi.)

103.9

3

Bradley

103.5

4

Indiana St.

102.4

5

Missouri St.

101.8

6

Drake

100.9

7

Valparaiso

100.2

8

Southern Illinois

98.4

9

Evansville

97.4

10

Illinois St.

97.3

Avg

Missouri Valley

101.2

#

Mountain West

PiRate

1

San Diego St.

113.7

2

Utah St.

110.0

3

Nevada

106.1

4

New Mexico

105.1

5

Boise St.

104.6

6

Fresno St.

102.7

7

Colorado St.

101.8

8

UNLV

101.6

9

Air Force

98.8

10

Wyoming

92.1

11

San Jose St.

91.2

Avg

Mountain West

102.5

#

Northeast

PiRate

1

St. Francis (PA)

99.3

2

Sacred Heart

97.8

3

Bryant

96.9

4

Long Island

95.0

5

Robert Morris

94.2

6

Mount St. Mary’s

92.8

7

Merrimack

92.6

8

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.5

9

Wagner

91.5

10

St. Francis (NY)

90.9

11

Central Connecticut

80.9

Avg

Northeast

93.1

#

Ohio Valley

PiRate

1

Belmont

107.0

2

Murray St.

102.4

3

Austin Peay

98.1

4

Eastern Illinois

97.0

5

Tennessee St.

95.9

6

Jacksonville St.

95.8

7

Morehead St.

94.0

8

SE Missouri

90.5

9

UT-Martin

90.4

10

Eastern Kentucky

89.3

11

Tennessee Tech

88.1

12

SIU Edwardsville

87.4

Avg

Ohio Valley

94.7

#

Pac-12

PiRate

1

Arizona

116.8

2

Oregon

114.5

3

Colorado

111.6

4

Washington

110.9

5

Stanford

109.1

6

Oregon St.

108.0

7

USC

107.4

8

Arizona St.

106.8

9

Utah

105.5

10

UCLA

104.0

11

Washington St.

102.5

12

California

99.0

Avg

Pac-12

108.0

#

Patriot

PiRate

1

Colgate

101.7

2

Lafayette

97.3

3

Boston U

96.6

4

Bucknell

96.5

5

Loyola (MD)

96.4

6

American

96.3

7

Navy

95.8

8

Lehigh

95.0

9

Army

92.0

10

Holy Cross

88.6

Avg

Patriot

95.6

#

Southeastern

PiRate

1

Auburn

115.5

2

Kentucky

114.4

3

LSU

113.0

4

Florida

112.5

5

Arkansas

112.0

6

Missouri

109.8

7

Alabama

109.7

8

Mississippi St.

109.3

9

Tennessee

109.2

10

Georgia

108.6

11

Mississippi

105.9

12

South Carolina

104.2

13

Vanderbilt

102.6

14

Texas A&M

100.4

Avg

Southeastern

109.1

#

Southern

PiRate

1

East Tennessee St.

107.9

2

Furman

107.8

3

UNC Greensboro

106.7

4

Wofford

102.7

5

Western Carolina

100.3

6

Chattanooga

97.6

7

Samford

96.5

8

Mercer

94.2

9

VMI

92.7

10

Citadel

92.0

Avg

Southern

99.9

#

Southland

PiRate

1

Stephen F. Austin

103.1

2

UT Arlington

103.0

3

Sam Houston St.

100.3

4

Nicholls St.

97.7

5

Abilene Christian

97.0

6

Lamar

94.3

7

McNeese St.

93.2

8

New Orleans

91.5

9

Texas A&M CC

91.2

10

Central Arkansas

89.4

11

SE Louisiana

88.7

12

Northwestern St.

88.0

13

Houston Baptist

86.7

14

Incarnate Word

83.5

Avg

Southland

93.4

#

Southwestern Athletic

PiRate

1

Prairie View A&M

95.7

2

Texas Southern

94.6

3

Grambling

92.4

4

Jackson St.

89.4

5

Southern

89.2

6

Alcorn St.

88.4

7

Alabama St.

86.8

8

Alabama A&M

86.4

9

Arkansas Pine Bluff

85.0

10

Mississippi Valley St.

77.4

Avg

Southwestern Athletic

88.5

#

Summit

PiRate

1

North Dakota St.

101.2

2

South Dakota St.

101.1

3

Oral Roberts

100.9

4

Omaha

98.3

5

North Dakota

97.3

6

South Dakota

97.2

7

Purdue Fort Wayne

95.5

8

Western Illinois

89.8

9

Denver

89.5

Avg

Summit

96.8

#

Sun Belt

PiRate

1

Georgia St.

104.1

2

Texas St.

101.9

3

Georgia Southern

100.9

4

Appalachian St.

100.8

5

Little Rock

100.4

6

Coastal Carolina

100.0

7

South Alabama

97.5

8

Louisiana Monroe

96.0

9

Arkansas St.

95.5

10

Louisiana

95.0

11

Troy

92.7

Avg

Sun Belt

98.6

#

West Coast

PiRate

1

Gonzaga

116.8

2

BYU

112.6

3

Saint Mary’s

111.4

4

San Francisco

104.2

5

Santa Clara

102.0

6

Pacific

100.4

7

Pepperdine

100.2

8

San Diego

98.5

9

Loyola Marymount

97.2

10

Portland

95.0

Avg

West Coast

103.8

#

Western Athletic

PiRate

1

New Mexico St.

105.6

2

California Baptist

98.9

3

Missouri-KC

96.4

4

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.1

5

Grand Canyon

96.0

6

Seattle

96.0

7

Utah Valley

94.9

8

UT Rio Grande Valley

94.1

9

Chicago St.

78.1

Avg

Western Athletic

95.1

 

Conference Ratings

 

#

Conference

PiRate

1

Big Ten

112.2

2

Big 12

111.5

3

Big East

111.1

4

Atlantic Coast

109.4

5

Southeastern

109.1

6

Pac-12

108.0

7

American Athletic

105.7

8

West Coast

103.8

9

Atlantic 10

103.4

10

Mountain West

102.5

11

Missouri Valley

101.2

12

Mid-American

100.5

13

Southern

99.9

14

Conference USA

99.8

15

Ivy

99.5

16

Sun Belt

98.6

17

Colonial Athletic

97.6

18

Big Sky

96.8

19

Summit

96.8

20

Big West

96.1

21

Horizon

96.1

22

Patriot

95.6

23

Western Athletic

95.1

24

American East

94.8

25

Metro Atlantic

94.8

26

Ohio Valley

94.7

27

Atlantic Sun

94.3

28

Southland

93.4

29

Northeast

93.1

30

Big South

92.9

31

Southwestern Athletic

88.5

32

Mideastern Athletic

88.1

 

Coming Later Today–Updated Bracketology

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 5, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Butler

107.5

3.0

Xavier

106.2

4.3

Duke

124.7

2.5

Wake Forest

98.6

28.6

Michigan St.

120.5

3.0

Nebraska

109.7

13.8

Florida St.

114.4

3.0

Virginia Tech

115.7

1.7

Ohio

98.6

2.5

Buffalo

115.1

-14.0

Akron

103.2

2.0

Bowling Green

104.7

0.5

Eastern Michigan

100.9

2.5

Ball St.

103.1

0.3

Binghamton

89.3

2.0

Albany

93.0

-1.7

Hartford

99.0

2.5

Stony Brook

100.0

1.5

New Hampshire

84.8

2.5

Maine

88.4

-1.1

Texas A&M

105.8

3.0

South Carolina

105.4

3.4

Central Michigan

103.2

3.0

Northern Illinois

101.1

5.1

Toledo

108.5

3.0

Western Michigan

94.8

16.7

Saint Joseph’s

98.6

3.0

Rhode Island

100.9

0.7

Miami (O)

102.6

2.5

Kent St.

101.7

3.4

Hampton

98.6

2.5

Longwood

93.0

8.1

Charleston Southern

99.5

2.0

USC Upstate

87.5

14.0

Presbyterian

98.3

2.0

UNC Asheville

85.7

14.6

Lafayette

92.5

2.5

Holy Cross

95.6

-0.6

Boston U

96.1

2.5

Loyola (MD)

94.2

4.4

George Mason

101.4

3.0

Virginia Commonwealth

110.4

-6.0

Boston College

104.7

3.0

North Carolina

121.2

-13.5

Vermont

105.2

3.0

UMass Lowell

94.9

13.3

Minnesota

109.6

3.0

Purdue

117.6

-5.0

Abilene Christian

100.7

3.0

Stephen F Austin

91.6

12.1

Green Bay

97.4

3.0

Illinois Chicago

97.8

2.6

Wright St.

102.7

3.0

IUPUI

98.3

7.4

Miami (Fla)

106.3

3.0

Pittsburgh

104.8

4.5

Tennessee

118.7

3.0

Mississippi St.

113.6

8.1

Ole Miss

110.3

3.0

Kentucky

117.9

-4.6

Oklahoma

110.9

3.0

Kansas

115.1

-1.2

Alabama

108.3

3.0

Auburn

114.7

-3.4

Wichita St.

104.6

3.0

East Carolina

94.0

13.6

Colorado St.

99.5

3.0

Utah St.

110.9

-8.4

Air Force

95.9

2.5

Nevada

113.8

-15.4

 

Conference Tournament Updates

Atlantic Sun 

Quarterfinal Results

1 Lipscomb

86

8 Kennesaw St.

71

2 Liberty

72

7 Jacksonville

58

3 North Florida

76

6 North Alabama

66

5 NJIT

83

4 Florida GC

78

 

Semifinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Lipscomb (24-6)

5

NJIT (21-11)

2

Liberty (26-6)

3

North Florida (16-16)

 

Big South

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

Presbyterian (17-14)

10

UNC-Asheville (4-26)

6

Charleston Southern (15-14)

11

USC Upstate (6-25)

8

Hampton (14-15)

9

Longwood (15-16)

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 & Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1 (Tue)

Wright St. (19-12)

8

IUPUI (16-15)

4 (Tue)

Green Bay (16-15)

5

Illinois-Chicago (16-15)

3 (Wed)

Oakland (15-16)

6

Youngstown St. (12-19)

2 (Wed)

Northern Kentucky (23-8)

7

Detroit (11-19)

 

Patriot League

First Round–Tuesday, March 5

Seed

Home

Visitors

8

Boston U (14-17)

9

Loyola (MD) (11-20)

7

Lafayette (10-19)

10

Holy Cross (15-16)

Coming Later Today: Updated Bracketology

February 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 18, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:11 pm

February 18, 2019

Seed

School

Conf.

1

Gonzaga

West Coast

1

Duke

ACC

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Houston

American Athletic

3

Kansas

Big 12

3

Nevada

Mountain West

4

LSU

SEC

4

Marquette

Big East

4

Iowa St.

Big 12

4

Virginia Tech

ACC

5

Louisville

ACC

5

Iowa

Big Ten

5

Texas Tech

Big 12

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

6

Villanova

Big East

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Florida St.

ACC

6

Kansas St.

Big 12

7

Cincinnati

American Athletic

7

Buffalo

Mid-American

7

Auburn

SEC

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

8

Wofford

Southern

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

Ole Miss

SEC

9

TCU

Big 12

9

Texas

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Utah St.

Mountain West

10

St. John’s 

Big East

10

Syracuse

ACC

10

Minnesota

Big Ten

10

Central Florida

American Athletic

11

Temple

American Athletic

11

Oklahoma

Big 12

11

Clemson

ACC

11

Ohio St.

Big Ten

11

Seton Hall

Big East

12

Alabama

SEC

12

Butler

Big East

12

Hofstra

Colonial

12

Lipscomb

Atlantic Sun

12

Virginia Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Belmont

Ohio Valley

13

Vermont

America East

13

Yale

Ivy League

14

Old Dominion

CUSA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit

14

UC Irvine

Big West

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Missouri St.

Missouri Valley

15

Radford

Big South

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Sam Houston St.

Southland

16

Rider

Metro Atlantic

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

St. Francis (PA)

Northeast

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

 

First Four OUT

Indiana

Florida

Arizona St.

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

Murray St.

 

Last Four IN

Ohio St.

Seton Hall

Alabama

Butler

 

Last Four BYES

Central Florida

Temple

Oklahoma

Clemson

 

First Four

For the first time this year, we have staggered the seed lines for the First Four games involving the final four at-large bids.  We have one game pitting 11-seeds and another game pitting 12-seeds.  This could change before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the First Four games have mostly  been with 11-seeds, but there have been 12-seeds, and even 13-seeds and 14-seeds earlier in this decade.

Because of the rule that no teams from the same conference can face off in the First Four games, we had to move two teams in the seed line to prevent a conference matchup in Dayton.

11-Seed Line: Ohio State vs. Seton Hall

12-Seed Line: Alabama vs. Butler

16-Seed Line: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

16-Seed Line: Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

There are four teams that if they lose in their conference tournament, they will still be an at-large entry, and their conference will improve from one to two bids.

Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference

Washington in the Pac-12 Conference

Wofford in the Southern Conference

Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference

 

There are four other Mid-Major teams that need to be in the discussion by the Selection Committee (in addition to the Mid-Majors already on our Bubble above).

Murray State (or Belmont) in the Ohio Valley Conference

Liberty (or Lipscomb) in the Atlantic Sun Conference

Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference

Toledo in the Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

March 17, 2017

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Saturday, March 18, 2017 NCAA Tournament Games

Team Team Red White Blue
West Virginia Notre Dame 6 4 1
Villanova Wisconsin 8 6 6
Gonzaga Northwestern 17 10 8
Florida St. Xavier 8 5 4
Butler Middle Tennessee 5 4 7
Arizona Saint Mary’s -2 -1 1
Florida Virginia 1 1 1
Purdue Iowa St. 1 2 1

 

Saturday’s TV Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
12:10 PM CBS West Virginia vs. Notre Dame
2:40 PM CBS Villanova vs. Wisconsin
5:15 PM CBS Gonzaga vs. Northwestern
6:10 PM TNT Florida St. vs. Xavier
7:10 PM TBS Butler vs. Middle Tennessee
7:45 PM CBS Arizona vs. Saint Mary’s
8:40 PM TNT Florida vs. Virginia
9:40 PM TBS Purdue vs. Iowa St.

 

 

February 19, 2016

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 20-21, 2016

They are in the stretch.  In less than two weeks, the first conference tournaments will begin, and three weeks from Sunday, we will know which 68 teams will play meaningful games into the third week of March.

Before we look at this weekend’s Red, White, and Blue ratings’ selections, let’s take a closer look at “The Bubble.”

As of today, we estimate that 24 teams are currently part of “The Bubble.”  Of those 24 teams, 14 of them are currently listed as “in the Dance,” and 10 are listed as NIT-Bound.

There is a catch here.  The good side of The Bubble tends to shrink as conference tournament play continues.  Whereas some teams play their way onto The Bubble and into the discussion, the number of available places for Bubble teams shrinks when a team not in the discussion gets hot and wins an automatic bid, reducing the number of spots for teams in the gray area.

As a for instance, let’s say that North Carolina State upsets three teams and wins the ACC Tournament this year.  The Wolf Pack would obviously receive an automatic bid, while the other big ACC teams already considered in the field but not as a Bubble team also receive bids.  This causes one Bubble team that is listed as in to be bumped to see their bubble burst.

Here is a look at our 24 Bubblers, showing which 14 would be drinking at the Dance bubbler today.

If you don’t know what a bubbler is, ask somebody from Wisconsin.

Team Conf. Overall RPI Vs. T50  Vs.T100 Rd RPI L12 Seed Weekend
Connnecticut 9-4 19-7 36 3-3 7-7 21 9-3 7 at Cincinnati
Providence 7-7 19-8 37 2-5 8-5 13 5-7 7 OFF
Syracuse 8-6 18-9 39 5-6 7-8 43 8-4 8 vs. Pitt.
Colorado 8-6 19-8 33 3-7 7-8 38 7-5 8 at UCLA
Pittsburgh 7-6 18-7 41 2-5 5-7 5 6-6 9 at Syracuse
Wisconsin 8-5 16-10 48 4-5 8-6 24 8-4 9 vs. Illinois
Seton Hall 8-5 18-7 44 1-4 7-7 41 7-5 10 at St. John’s
Michigan 9-5 19-8 54 1-3 8-8 42 7-5 10 at Maryland
Oregon St. 6-7 15-9 32 6-5 8-9 60 5-7 10 at Oregon
Texas Tech 6-7 16-9 28 5-7 7-8 61 5-7 11 at Okla. St.
Cincinnati 9-5 19-8 60 3-4 5-7 34 8-4 12 Vs. U Conn
Temple 10-3 16-9 66 4-5 6-7 96 9-3 12 at Houston
Butler 7-7 18-8 58 2-6 6-7 28 7-5 12 at Villanova
Alabama 7-6 16-9 30 4-5 7-8 35 7-5 12 vs. Miss. St.
Tulsa 9-5 17-9 45 2-4 6-8 55 9-3 1st out at Cent. Fla.
Clemson 9-5 16-10 89 5-5 7-7 99 8-4 2nd out vs. N. C. St.
Saint Mary’s 12-3 21-4 67 0-1 4-2 97 9-3 3rd out at Gonzaga
Florida St. 6-8 16-10 61 2-7 7-10 68 6-6 4th out at Va. Tech
LSU 9-4 16-10 81 3-5 6-7 50 7-5 5th out at Tennessee
Vanderbilt 7-6 15-11 62 3-7 4-9 75 7-5 6th out vs. Georgia
St. Bonaventure 9-4 17-7 49 2-2 4-5 71 8-4 7th out at Dayton
Geo. Washington 8-5 19-7 46 2-3 4-4 76 7-5 8th out at U Mass
Creighton 8-6 17-10 83 2-6 4-9 77 7-5 9th out OFF
Washington 7-7 15-11 73 5-5 10-12 53 5-7 10thout vs. Stanford

 

Games Scheduled for: Saturday, February 20, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Louisville Duke 3 4 6
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) 6 6 3
Syracuse Pittsburgh 6 5 7
Virginia Tech Florida St. -3 -3 -5
Clemson North Carolina St. 4 5 2
Georgia Tech Notre Dame -2 -1 -4
Texas Baylor 5 6 5
West Virginia Oklahoma 4 4 6
Kansas St. Kansas -5 -2 -7
Iowa St. TCU 17 18 15
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech -1 -2 -2
Georgetown Xavier -4 -3 -8
DePaul Marquette -2 -5 -3
Villanova Butler 11 10 12
Rutgers Penn St. -6 -7 -4
Nebraska Ohio St. 3 1 2
Indiana Purdue 5 3 6
Washington Stanford 7 7 8
Oregon Oregon St. 10 8 11
UCLA Colorado 5 3 2
South Carolina Florida 2 2 3
Vanderbilt Georgia 8 6 3
Alabama Mississippi St. 6 6 7
Auburn Ole Miss -4 -5 -3
Tennessee LSU 1 1 3
Texas A&M Kentucky 1 3 -3
Arkansas Missouri 10 10 8
Gonzaga Saint Mary’s 6 6 6

 

Games Scheduled for: Sunday, February 21, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Wake Forest Boston College 9 10 8
St. John’s Seton Hall -12 -14 -15
Maryland Michigan 3 8 9
Wisconsin Illinois 11 11 10
USC Utah 6 6 5
Washington St. California -9 -10 -6

March 22, 2013

Bracketnomics 2013: NCAA Tournament: Saturday, March 23, Third Round

 2013 NCAA Tournament— Round Three Schedule For Saturday, March 23, 2013

All times Eastern Daylight

Time

Network

Region

Higher Seed

Lower Seed

 

12:15 PM

CBS

South

#4 Michigan (27-7)

#5 Virginia Commonwealth (27-8)

 

2:45 PM

CBS

Midwest

#3 Michigan St. (26-8)

#6 Memphis (31-4)

 

5:15 PM

CBS

Midwest

#1 Louisville (30-5)

#8 Colorado St. (26-8)

 

6:10 PM

TNT

West

#6 Arizona (26-7)

#14 Harvard (20-9)

 

7:10 PM

TBS

Midwest

#4 St. Louis (28-6)

#12 Oregon (27-8)

 

7:45 PM

CBS

East

#3 Marquette (24-8)

#6 Butler (27-8)

 

8:40 PM

TNT

West

#1 Gonzaga (32-2)

#9 Wichita St. (27-8)

 

9:40 PM

TBS

East

#4 Syracuse (27-9)

#12 California (21-11)

 

Team

PPG

Opp

Diff

FG%

Def FG%

Diff

Reb

Opp

Diff

TO

Opp TO

Diff

Stl

R+T

SOS

Rd  W-L

Michigan

75.2

62.9

12.3

.484

.419

6.5

35.1

32.2

2.9

9.2

12.1

2.9

6.0

7.58

56.00

60.0

V C U

77.3

64.8

12.5

.449

.444

0.5

34.8

34.8

0.0

11.8

19.9

8.1

11.8

12.08

55.72

64.7

Michigan St.

68.2

59.3

8.9

.460

.394

6.6

37.3

30.5

6.8

13.4

12.8

-0.6

8.1

7.70

59.69

53.3

Memphis

75.9

65.1

10.8

.479

.405

7.4

37.8

32.9

4.9

14.6

15.5

0.9

9.0

7.78

54.81

81.3

Louisville

73.6

58.0

15.6

.445

.388

5.7

37.5

33.9

3.6

12.7

18.7

6.0

10.7

12.94

59.42

77.8

Colorado St.

73.1

62.9

10.2

.448

.409

3.9

40.4

28.4

12.0

10.8

11.1

0.3

4.9

13.34

56.44

56.3

Arizona

73.3

63.7

9.6

.450

.415

3.5

36.2

30.3

5.9

13.1

13.8

0.7

6.9

8.12

57.27

68.8

Harvard

68.9

63.9

5.0

.482

.440

4.2

29.4

30.4

-1.0

13.5

13.8

0.3

7.4

0.84

48.79

42.9

St. Louis

68.7

58.1

10.6

.448

.412

3.6

32.8

32.5

0.3

11.5

15.2

3.7

7.5

6.24

55.73

69.2

Oregon

72.5

62.9

9.6

.451

.406

4.5

37.9

30.9

7.0

15.1

15.7

0.6

8.8

9.48

53.29

60.0

Marquette

69.0

62.7

6.3

.467

.405

6.2

35.0

30.6

4.4

13.6

12.9

-0.7

6.7

4.90

58.24

46.7

Butler

69.7

63.7

6.0

.455

.417

3.8

36.6

28.9

7.7

13.2

11.2

-2.0

5.7

6.44

56.61

70.6

Gonzaga

78.0

59.7

18.3

.503

.382

12.1

37.4

30.0

7.4

11.3

13.9

2.6

8.0

12.12

54.72

93.8

Wichita St.

69.4

60.7

8.7

.443

.400

4.3

38.4

30.0

8.4

12.8

13.2

0.4

7.5

10.38

53.84

64.7

Syracuse

71.3

60.1

11.2

.440

.377

6.3

38.7

34.6

4.1

12.6

15.5

2.9

8.9

9.36

59.30

56.3

California

67.5

64.4

3.1

.446

.396

5.0

37.2

34.0

3.2

12.5

11.1

-1.4

5.8

2.68

56.35

60.0

 

Thursday’s Pick Record: 12 – 4.

 

Game Previews

Michigan vs. Virginia Commonwealth

Michigan has a decided shooting edge in this game, and the Wolverines should win the rebound battle, but the key here will be how much they control the boards.  VCU’s pressing defense is called “Havoc” for a reason.  The Rams can get 10 steals on just about any team in this tournament, because players do not have the fundamentals mastered in this era.  If Michigan cannot win the rebounding battle by at least five and maybe as much as eight, VCU will create enough turnovers and score enough in transition to erase Michigan’s shooting advantage.  The Maize and Blue may be the best team VCU’s press has tried to upset this year, and Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. are much better than the average pair of ball-handlers.

 

Like most of Saturday’s games, this one will be an excellent game to watch, and it should be nip and tuck all the way.  We grade these teams three ways to come up with our PiRate Number.  Michigan has a slight edge in one rating, while VCU has an equally slim edge in the second rating.  VCU qualifies in four of our rating criteria categories, while Michigan qualifies in three.  However, Michigan qualifies in the all-important strength of schedule, while the Rams do not.

 

VCU fails to qualify on SOS by the thinnest of hairs, and when we compare the two teams’ SOS side-by-side, they are separated by less than a point per game.

 

PiRate Pick: Virginia Commonwealth 74  Michigan 70

 

Michigan St. vs. Memphis

This is another game where the teams match up well with enough strengths with which to exploit the other and enough liabilities that can be exploited.  MichiganState is a tad slow in transition, while Memphis is considerably quicker.  The Spartans are stronger in the paint, while their guards are better outside shooters than the Tigers’ guards.

 

We think the difference in this game will come in shot selection.  In the second half, we expect MichiganState to take the smarter shots, while Memphis throws up some ill-advised shots.  It will be the difference down the stretch as Sparty pulls away at the end.

 

PiRate Pick: Michigan State 68  Memphis 61

 

Louisville vs. Colorado St.

The Rams might have a decent shot at ousting any of the other three number one seeds, but they unfortunately draw the one number one seed that they do not match up well against.  Louisville is a much better version of New Mexico, and CSU could not handle New Mexico.

 

The Cardinals have the best defensive backcourt in the tournament, even better than VCU’s Havoc Defense.  Not only can UL steal the ball 10 times a game, they also can stop teams in the paint and on the perimeter in the halfcourt.  Coach Rick Pitino may have his best team since his 1996 Kentucky Wildcats, and “The Ville,” looks to be unstoppable at this point.

 

ColoradoState may keep it close for one or two TV timeouts, but the Cardinals will pull away and have a double-digit lead before halftime.  CSU is not the best come-from-behind team, and things will only get worse until Pitino removes his starters.

 

PiRate Pick: Louisville 77  Colorado St. 54

 

Arizona vs. Harvard

If you read our previous post, you know we selected the 6-seeded Wildcats to emerge as the surprise winner of the West Region.  We’ve been given a gift in this round, as Sean Miller’s squad almost gets a walkover to advance to the Sweet 16.

 

Harvard is the first team that failed to qualify in any of our criteria categories to advance to the Round of 32 in six seasons.  We do not expect the Crimson to put up much of a fight in this game.

 

Arizona will get about 10-12 more chances to score points in this game, and the Wildcats should match or exceed Harvard in shooting percentage.  UA’s quickness should prevent the Crimson from getting many open looks from behind the arc, which is the only area where Harvard has a chance to stay in the game.

 

PiRate Pick: Arizona 71  Harvard 52

 

St. Louis vs. Oregon

We think this will be a dandy of a game to watch.  Aside from being just plain solid, SLU is playing for their deceased head coach, Rick Majerus.  While this emotional boost of octane does not figure in our PiRate Criteria, we do keep this knowledge in the back of our heads.

 

OU has an axe to grind that equalizes the Billikens’ extra emotion.  The Ducks felt as if they were seeded about five spots lower than they deserved to be seeded.  So these factors cancel each other out.

 

Let’s look at the Criteria numbers for this game.  Oregon should end up with a better shooting percentage, and the Ducks should win the battle of the boards, but not by a large number.  The SLU players are a better ball-control team, but they won’t remind anybody of conference rival VCU.

 

Oregon has a small R+T advantage, while SLU has played a slightly more difficult schedule and has performed better away from home.  The fact that this game is in San Jose does not help the Ducks as much as it would if this were the previous round, but SLU will have been on the coast for four days and will have adjusted by the time this game tips off.

 

Both teams have exceptional depth and balance, and this game should have a fluidity that others do not.  It would not surprise us if neither team ever enjoys a lead of more than eight points.  It would also not surprise us if 40 minutes is not enough to determine the winner.

 

PiRate Pick: Oregon 72  St. Louis 70

 

Marquette vs. Butler

This game could have just as easily been Davidson versus Bucknell.  Marquette survived an advanced because Davidson panicked at the end.  Bucknell had Butler on the ropes, but the Bulldogs showed poise when it counted.  The more experienced teams emerged victorious.

 

Now, in this round, we need to closely examine the numbers, because both teams are solid with savvy.  Marquette is a slightly better shooting team than Butler, and the Golden Eagles are also a little better affecting shots by the opponent.   Butler is considerably better on the glass, while neither team is much of a ball-hawking power.  Butler will get three to five more chances to score, but Marquette will shoot a higher percentage.

 

Looking at the other criteria, Marquette compiled their stats against competition that was a little less than two points per game better than Butler’s opponents, but Butler performed much better away from Indianapolis than MU did away from Milwaukee.  This stat is the deciding factor for us, and we believe Coach Brad Stevens will have his squad a little better prepared on less than 48 hours notice.

 

PiRate Pick: Butler 59  Marquette 55

 

Gonzaga vs. Wichita St.

The number one seed and regular final season number one team almost fell to a 16-seed.  The last time the overall number one team and top seed in a region lost their first game was way back in 1981, when #1-seed DePaul lost to #9-seed St. Joseph’s (40-team tournament in 1981).

 

WichitaState looked like a Sweet 16 team in their win over Pittsburgh.  The Shockers have their best team since the great 1981 team that advanced to the Elite 8.  That team had three future NBA players in Cliff Levengston, Antoine Carr, and Xavier McDaniel.

 

Of course, this is Gonzaga’s best team, and the Bulldogs have been toughened by their narrow escape.  We do not see Coach Mark Few’s team stubbing its toe and coming out flat in this game.  GU has something to prove.

 

The Zags are a better shooting team and a better defending team in the half-court.  The two teams are fairly even on the boards, while Gonzaga enjoys a slight advantage in turnover margin.  The two teams’ strengths of schedule differ minutely, but Gonzaga enjoys a considerably better record away from Spokane than WSU has away from Wichita.

 

PiRate Pick: Gonzaga 78  Wichita State 69

 

Syracuse vs. California

The Golden Bears get a little bit of home court advantage, as Berkeley is only 45 miles north of San Jose.  Still, the ‘Cuse is clearly the better team.

 

A lot of teams have trouble with Coach Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 matchup zone the first time they face it.  We believe the Bears will shoot under 40% in this game and fail to pick up enough offensive rebounds to keep the game within reach at the end.

 

Syracuse enjoys small, but significant advantages in field goal percentage margin and rebound margin.  The difference is more significant in turnover margin, and this leads to SU enjoying an R+T rating that is worth 6 ½ more possessions.  To top it off, The Orangemen’s strength of schedule is about three points per game better than Cal’s.  This adds up to a solid win for Boeheim’s bunch.

 

PiRate Pick: Syracuse 69  California 57

 

Coming Saturday night, we will preview Sunday’s games.

March 19, 2011

Saturday’s NCAA Tournament PiRate Criteria Ratings

All Times EDT

Number in (Parentheses) indicates PiRate Criteria Rating

For a detailed explanation of the PiRate Criteria Rating, click on the following link:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/bracketnomics-505-2011-edition/

 

12:15 PM on CBS

Kentucky (14) vs. West Virginia (6)

The Wildcats seek revenge today for their regional final exit of last year.  This Kentucky team has what last year’s team lacked—consistent outside shooting to complement their more than decent dribble-drive.  While not as talented, Coach John Calipari’s squad is more complete this year.  The Blue Misters are jelling at the right time, and we believe they will advance to the Sweet 16.

 

West Virginia is not as dominating inside as they were last year, and they might be a little to slow and methodical to compete against the quicker Wildcats.  Coach Bob Huggins will have a great gameplan ready, and we believe the Mountaineers will keep it close.

 

We see this as a game of spurts.  Kentucky will enjoy one spurt in both halves, and WVU will attempt to creep back in the game both times.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 74  West Virginia 67

 

2:40 PM on CBS

Florida (15) vs. U C L A (-3)

The PiRate Criteria rates this game a giant mismatch, and we see no reason why not to agree. This would be a great game if all the former Bruins now playing in the NBA would have used their four years of eligibility.  However, this is more like the old Brubabes when schools fielded Freshmen and later Junior Varsity teams.  This UCLA team is better than Florida’s second team.  The Gators’ best players are still around, while UCLA’s best senior is the star of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

 

Florida has a large quickness advantage, and they will win the hustle points.  This one should be out of hand by halftime or five minutes into the second half.

 

Prediction: Florida 75  U C L A 62

 

5:15 PM on CBS

Morehead State (3) vs. Richmond (2)

This game will be one of the more interesting contests in the Round of 32.  Morehead State is an aggressive take-it-to-the-hoop and score or pass back for a three team.  The Racers have the closest thing to Elvin Hayes on their roster.  Kenneth Faried is much better than Dennis Rodman, but he is much thinner than Wes Unseld, and he has a better offensive game than both of those historically fantastic rebounders.  Faried can take it to the hoop, and he can pull up and fire from the foul line area, much like the great Hayes used to do with Houston and in the NBA.

 

Richmond will try to make this a game of the smart beating the strong, because the Spiders do not have much of an answer for Faried inside.  However, they enjoy a huge advantage on the perimeter.

 

This game will come down to this easy pointer: whichever team performs better at their strength and defends the other’s strength will win.  We think this one could end on a buzzer beater or go to overtime, but we will go with the chalk and take the higher PiRate score.

 

By the way, the last time an Ohio Valley Conference team advanced to the Sweet 16, it was Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers left the OVC more than two decades ago.

 

Prediction: Morehead State 64  Richmond 62

 

6:10 PM on TNT

San Diego State (19) vs. Temple (5)

If our criteria rating is going to be accurate this season, then we need to see the Aztecs play much better today than they did in a lackluster opening round win over Northern Colorado.  If San Diego State is firing on all cylinders, Temple has little or no chance in this game.

 

This Owl team is not quick enough or strong enough to battle this Aztec team if SDSU is playing just an average game.  If the Aztecs come out flat, Coach Fran Dunphy’s Owls could keep it close for 40 minutes and even be in striking distance.

 

Steve Fisher has been to the Final Four three times, and he knows how to prepare a team in tournament play.  He has enough talent to get there again, and we believe SDSU will play much better today against a much better opponent than Northern Colorado.  Remember this: Temple ran Duke of the Palestra floor less a month ago.  They have enough talent to win this game, but we do not see it happening.

 

Prediction: San Diego State 72  Temple 62

 

7:10 PM on TBS

Pittsburgh (18) vs. Butler (7)

We know better than to count out a team coached by Brad Stevens.  However, Butler’s bubble is going to burst today.

 

Pittsburgh is just too talented to lose this game, even if Coach Jamie Dixon sometimes loses control of that talent.  The Panthers know what Butler can do, and they will be fired up for this game just as much as if they were playing Ohio State, Duke, or Kansas.

 

Butler is playing its best ball at the right time, but they are plainly outmanned against a superior team.  We expect the Bulldogs to keep it close and still have a chance with 10 minutes to go, but the Panthers will wear them down and pull away to what looks like an easier win than it was.

 

Prediction: Pittsburgh 71  Butler 59

 

7:45 PM on CBS

B Y U (18) vs. Gonzaga (13)

When you penalize BYU for the loss of Brandon Davies, their criteria score drops by about five points.  This ironically makes this game a complete tossup.

 

Jimmer Fredette may be able to score 40-50 points in this game, but Gonzaga could place five players in double figures.  We tend to like the odds of five scorers outscoring one.

 

Coach Mark Few deserves high accolades for turning this Bulldog team around in midseason.  The Zags appeared to be NIT-bound, before they turned it up a notch and began playing the best basketball seen in Spokane since the days of Adam Morrison.

 

We believe Gonzaga is Sweet 16-bound, and we would not be surprised if they give Florida a great game in a potential matchup.

 

Prediction: Gonzaga 84  B Y U 75

 

8:40 PM on TNT

Kansas State (9) vs. Wisconsin (7)

This one is the other great game of the day.  How about Jacob Pullen versus Jordan Taylor, and Jon Leuer versus Curtis Kelly?  If you like great player matchups, then this is the game of the day for you.

 

Kansas State is a tad stronger on the perimeter and a tad quicker, while Wisconsin is a tad stronger inside.  We expect the tempo to be controlled by the Badgers, so the score will be one of the lowest of the day, if not the lowest.

 

We have no real favorite in this game, so we will stick with the PiRate Criteria scores.  Two points is not much; it equates to about a 55% chance of the favorite winning.

 

Prediction: Kansas State 59  Wisconsin 55

 

9:40 PM on TBS

Connecticut (9) vs. Cincinnati (9)

Here we have our first game between teams from the same conference and teams that have already played against each other.  In their lone regular season contest in Cincinnati, the Huskies won on the road by eight points. 

 

Both teams play tenacious defense and rely on just a couple of players to lead on offense.  They know each other well, so it should be a high-spirited, tightly-fought game with a lot of excellent defensive possessions sprinkled with the occasional great offensive play.

 

Cincinnati will concentrate their efforts on stopping Kemba Walker, while the Huskies will try to keep the ball away from Yancy Gates and Dion Dixon.

 

This is the other game that could come down to a buzzer-beater, but we have a sneaky suspicion that Connecticut is about to explode and play like Husky teams of the past.

 

Prediction: Connecticut 69  Cincinnati 59

March 14, 2011

2011 PiRate NCAA Basketball Tournament Preview

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:01 pm

1. Which teams meet the upper range criteria in every category?  That means they outscored their opponents by eight or more per game; their field goal percentage was greater than 7.5% better than their opponents; they outrebounded their opponents by five or more per game; they forced at least three more turnovers per game than they committed; and they stole the ball 7.5 or more times per game.

 

ANSWER—No teams this year meet all the perfect criteria described above.  Six teams come close to meeting the perfect criteria, but all fall short in at least one statistic.  This means there is no clear-cut favorite—only six teams that most closely resemble the great champions of the past.  Of the six, three come from power conferences.  These three are Kansas, Ohio State, and Syracuse.

 

Kansas fails to meet the turnover margin requirement, but the Jayhawks surpass all the other qualifications.  Ohio State comes up a tad bit short in field goal percentage margin, rebounding margin, and steals per game, but just misses in all three.  Syracuse misses in rebounding and turnover margin, but they Orangemen do not miss by much. 

 

2. Which teams can be immediately eliminated due to a negative R+T rating?  Which teams have an incredibly low R+T Rating (<2.0)?

 

ANSWER—Three teams can immediately be eliminated due to negative R+T Ratings.  It comes as no surprise that Alabama State and Texas-San Antonio, two teams facing off in the First Round in Dayton, have negative R+T ratings.  The third team is Michigan.  The Wolverines were outrebounded by 1.9 boards per game, and they only had a +1.4 turnover margin with just 4.7 steals per game.

 

Five other teams finished with R+T ratings less than 2.0.  This usually means one and done for these teams, unless they have outstanding FG% margins or cupcake opponents with worse criteria numbers.  Those five teams are: Penn State, Richmond, St. Peter’s, UCLA, and UCSB.

 

3. Which teams are capable of winning it all?

 

ANSWER—We separate the contenders from the pretenders by looking at the total PiRate Criteria score and then looking to see if the high criteria scoring teams receive merit on every individual statistic.

 

Last year, Duke was head and heels better than the other 64 teams.  The Blue Devils had the highest score overall, and they satisfactorily rated in every PiRate category.

 

No teams appear to be as strong this year as the Blue Devils were last year, but nine teams meet most of the minimum requirements to be considered Final Four contenders this year.

 

It should come as no surprise that the top two teams, Ohio State and Kansas, rank at the top in the Criteria.  Kansas actually has the highest score of the 68 teams, a score of 23.  The Jayhawks outscored their opposition by 17.2 points, shot 11.7% better from the field than their opponents, and outrebounded their opponents by 7.8 boards per game.  These stats are worthy of a powerhouse.  However, KU enjoyed just a 0.9 turnover margin and stole the ball 7.9 times per game, giving the Jayhawks an R+T Rating of 9.5.  We tend to look for teams with an R+T Rating in excess of 10, so KU is not a great favorite to go all the way. 

 

Ohio State’s total Criteria score is 21, good for second best.  However, the Buckeyes enjoy an R+T Rating of 13.2, which is a number we really like in a Final Four contender.  This number correlates to 13 extra scoring opportunities that their opposition does not receive.  OSU outscores their opponents by 17.3 points per game, shot 6.9% better from the field than they allows, outrebounded their opponents by 4.9 per game, had a turnover margin of +4.8, and stole the ball 7.2 times per game. 

 

San Diego State comes in third with 19 total criteria points.  BYU, Pittsburgh, and Texas come in next with 18 points; the Panthers have an R+T rating above 10.  The other three teams with PiRate Criteria scores showing themselves to be strong contenders for a Final Four berth are Syracuse, Purdue, and Duke

 

Florida, North Carolina, and UNLV are actually almost in a statistical tie with Duke, meaning those three are dark horse candidates for the Final Four.

 

Overall, this is the weakest field by far in the six tournaments where we have ranked the teams according to our criteria.  Looking back, this could be the weakest field since the tournament expanded to 64 teams. 

 

North Carolina State, Kansas, and Villanova won national titles in the past with less than stellar numbers.  We do not have all the statistics from those years, so we cannot really calculate criteria numbers for those three champions.  Could this be a season in which one team gets hot for six games and comes from out of the pack to win it all?  It could happen, but we are sticking with this mechanical system and going with its results.  Kansas, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, and Texas appear to be the best PiRate Criteria matches to past Final Four teams, and they are the quartet we officially pick to make it to Houston.  Syracuse becomes the wildcard team that could sneak into the mix.

 

Here is a look at the First Four Round One games and the 32 second round games.  The number in (parentheses) represents the PiRate Bracketnomics criteria number.

 

First Four Round

 

#16 Texas-San Antonio 19-13 (Elim) vs. #16 Alabama State 17-17 (Elim)

At first, we thought this was highly ironic, but upon further review, we consider it sort of a compliment.  These two teams both must be eliminated based on negative R+T ratings.  Of course, one of them must win this game so that they can advance to a 25-point or more loss in the next round.

 

Most of you filling out your brackets do not have to worry about these games in Dayton.  You get to turn in your choices after these games have been played.

 

UTSA has better criteria numbers after you factor out both teams’ R+T numbers. 

 

Prediction: Texas-San Antonio 64  Alabama State 55

 

 

#12 U A B 22-8 (2) vs. #12 Clemson 21-11 (1)

If you have been following the “experts” since the pairings were announced Sunday evening, then you know that these two teams do not belong in the tournament in their opinion.  It is not our mission statement to declare which teams should and should not have been included in the Big Dance, but we will tell you that Harvard and Saint Mary’s enjoyed Criteria scores several points better than these two teams, while Colorado and Virginia Tech had equal numbers to these two.

 

This game should be as close as the criteria scores show.  UAB has a one-point advantage in the criteria, but the Blazers just do not excel in any stage of the game.  Clemson’s strong point is forcing turnovers by way of steals, and that leads to a lot of cheap baskets.  Cheap baskets pay off big time in the NCAA Tournament, so we will take the Tigers in this one.

 

Prediction: Clemson 74  UAB 67

 

#11 Southern Cal 19-14 (-1) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth 23-11 (-1)

The winner of this game is going home two days later.  Neither team merits inclusion in the Big Dance this year. 

 

Southern Cal has no apparent weakness according to the PiRate Criteria.  In fact, they have a great resume—for an NIT team.

 

The Trojans outscore their opponents by four points per game, and they outshoot them by 3.3%.  They have a small rebounding margin of 1.2, and they have an even smaller turnover margin of 0.6.  They average six steals per game and have a R+T rating of 2.1.  On top of these modest numbers, their schedule was average.

 

VCU is much in the same boat as USC with two exceptions.  They have a negative turnover margin, but they also average 8.5 steals per game.

 

The only other difference in these teams is their records away from home.  USC won only 41% of their games, while VCU won 60%.

 

This one is quite tough to pick, but we will go with the Trojans due to their superior inside talent.  We expect USC to win the rebounding edge by at least five.

 

Prediction: Southern Cal  65  V C U  60

 

#16 UNC-Asheville 19-13 (-5) vs. #16 Arkansas-Little Rock 19-16 (-13)

Obviously, we have two teams that would not even merit NIT bids had they lost in the championship games of their conference tournaments.  UALR has one of the lowest Criteria Scores in the seven years we have been calculating this data.

 

UNC-Asheville actually has a couple of positive Criteria stats.  Their R+T is 5.5, which had it come against a more difficult schedule, would have made them worthy of becoming a possible team to watch in the Round of 64.

 

We will go with UNCA here, as schedule strength is about the same for both teams.

 

Prediction: UNC-Asheville 69  Arkansas-Little Rock 59

 

 

Second-Round Games

 

East Regional

 

#1 Ohio State 32-2 (21) vs. #16 UTSA (Elim)/Alabama State (Elim)

This game will be over quickly.  There will be no scare, not even for two TV timeouts.  The second highest Criteria score versus one of the teams with an R+T Rating of “Eliminate.”

 

The Buckeyes outscored their opponents by more than 17 points per game.  Their strength of schedule was 13 points better than UTSA and 16 points better than Alabama State. 

 

We will go under the theory that UTSA will be the opponent in this game.  Using our Criteria Rating, Ohio State figures to be 30-40 points better than UTSA.  Coach Thad Matta will definitely empty his bench early in this game, so the Buckeyes may “only win” by 25-30. 

 

Prediction: Ohio State 78  Texas-San Antonio 50

 

#8 George Mason 26-6 (8) vs. #9 Villanova 21-11 (5)

George Mason is the higher seed in this game, so if they win, it cannot really be considered an upset.

 

Villanova was on course to be a four-seed when the Wildcats were 16-5 and contending for the Big East Conference regular season title.  The Wildcats could not compete down low against the more physical teams in their league.

 

George Mason has a higher PiRate Criteria Score, but it is not an insurmountable advantage.  The key stat for this game is the R+T Rating.  For GMU, it is 6.8.  For VU, it is 4.9.  Considering that Villanova played a harder schedule, these numbers basically cancel each other out, thus making this a tossup game.

 

There are two variables to consider here.  George Mason performed much better on the road, and Villanova is banged up a bit.

 

Prediction: George Mason 66  Villanova 62

 

#5 West Virginia 20-11 (6) vs. #12 UAB (2)/Clemson (1)

We believe the Mountaineers will be facing Clemson in this game, but the prediction will hold up if they play UAB. 

 

West Virginia is not as good this season as last season, and the Mountaineers will not advance to the Final Four, or even the Elite Eight.  They are liable to be out by the end of the weekend.  However, they are strong enough to get into the Round of 32. 

 

The Mountaineers best attribute is that they put up decent numbers against one of the toughest schedules in the country.  Of the NCAA Tournament teams, only Georgetown played a tougher schedule.  They will have to limit turnovers, or else this game will be close and go down to the wire.  We believe Coach Bob Huggins will be able to keep the pace at a level he likes and not allow Clemson (or UAB) to force the Mountaineers into enough mistakes to turn the tide.

 

Prediction: West Virginia 69  Clemson 62 (Or UAB 58)

 

#4 Kentucky 25-8 (14) vs. #13 Princeton 25-6 (-2)

Princeton has pulled off the big upset in the past, and they came within a missed jumper at the buzzer of becoming the only #16 seed to beat a #1 seed.  However, that was two decades ago.  The Tigers have not been to the NCAA Tournament in seven years, and that big win over UCLA was 15 years ago. 

 

Kentucky is not the type of team that will allow Princeton’s style of play to affect their style of play.  The Wildcats should actually play better than their norm with fewer mistakes. 

 

We believe that Princeton will actually crumble under relentless man-to-man pressure and turn the ball over enough times in the opening minutes of the game to allow the Wildcats to open a quick double-digit lead.  This group of Cats tends to fiddle around a little once they get a quick double-digit lead and then play uninspired ball until the opponent makes a run.  Then, they go on the attack at the right time and put the game away.

 

Adolph Rupp had a team just like this in 1958.  They were called “The Fiddlin’ Five.”  They were also called National Champions.  We won’t go so far as to put UK into this category, but we will advance the Wildcats into the next round and then into the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 72  Princeton 59

 

#6 Xavier 24-7 (8) vs. #11 Marquette 20-14 (3)

If you are looking for a tough, hard-fought game with two Midwestern teams, then tune into this game Friday evening.

 

If the Musketeers were a little more competent at forcing turnovers, they could be a dark horse candidate to advance to the Elite Eight.  XU shoots the ball well and plays well on defense when it comes to preventing a lot of easy shots.  They do well on the boards, and against a team that cannot exploit their ball-handling and ball-hawking deficiencies, they will hold their own inside.  The only other possible problem for the Musketeers is a lack of depth, but in the NCAA Tournaments, TV timeouts are longer.  It is hard to wear a team down with such long breaks every four or so minutes.

 

Marquette does not have enough depth to take advantage of Xavier’s lack of depth, so this factor will become a non-factor.  The Golden Eagles got to this tournament due to their ability to put the ball into the basket.  Marquette needs to shoot better than 46% to win, while Xavier is adept at holding teams under 45% as a rule.

 

Prediction: Xavier 71  Marquette 65

 

#3 Syracuse 26-7 (17) vs. #14 Indiana State 20-13 (-4)

Syracuse has been getting very little national exposure since their 18-0 start ended with an 8-7 finish.  The Orangemen are a team to watch in this tournament.  If not for a pedestrian 71% winning percentage away from the Carrier Dome, we would have them as one of the top four teams in this tournament.

 

Coach Jim Boeheim’s team outscores their opposition by 10.3 points per game; they outshoot them by 7.6%, and they outrebound them by 3.6 boards per game.  Their turnover margin is +1.9, and they averaged almost nine steals per game.  Their R+T Rating is 7.6, and their Strength of Schedule is somewhere between above-average and very good.  This is the Criteria Score of a team that will advance to the Sweet 16 and compete for an Elite Eight and Final Four berth.

 

Indiana State needs the return of Larry Bird to win this game.  They are too perimeter-oriented.  The Sycamores do not have the beef down low to contend in the paint, and even though Syracuse plays a 2-3 zone, teams rarely beat the Orangemen by firing up 25 long-range bombs.

 

This one smells like a blowout.

 

Prediction: Syracuse 81  Indiana State 62

 

#7 Washington 23-10 (13) vs. #10 Georgia 21-11 (2)

Washington is one of those teams that can play with anybody in this tournament—when they are playing up to their potential.  The Huskies could also exit in the first round if they play like they did the weekend they went to Oregon and Oregon State.

 

Georgia is much more consistent, but their best effort will not defeat the Huskies’ best effort.

 

Washington lacked the seasoned experience this season, and it showed when they ventured away from Seattle.  The Huskies lost to weaker opponents because they lacked the composure to win on foreign courts.  That changed when they arrived in Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament.  Isaiah Thomas took over command of the team and led them to the tournament title.  This makes UW a scary and dangerous team capable of returning to the Sweet 16.

 

Georgia must really dominate the glass in this game, because we believe they will turn the ball over too many times against UW’s pressure man-to-man defense.  It is our opinion that the Bulldogs will play a little timidly at the start of this game and find themselves in a hole.

 

The Bulldogs had trouble against Alabama’s defense, and Washington is similar but with a much better offense.

 

Prediction: Washington 78  Georgia 70

 

#2 North Carolina 26-7 (15) vs. #15 Long Island 27-5 (-1)

 

Long Island is just the type of team that can forget that their opponent is a dynasty program that chews up and spits out little programs like this.

 

Teams from Brooklyn don’t intimidate easily, especially when they are led by a trio of Texans.  So, LIU will not be intimidated, but will they be talented enough to make a game of this contest?

 

That’s the rub.  They lack the defensive ability to slow down the Tar Heels, while Coach Roy Williams’ team will be able to hold the Blackbirds under their scoring average.  The big problem for LIU will be holding onto the ball, and we could see North Carolina forcing 20 turnovers in this game.  When the Tar Heels force more turnovers than they commit, they are almost unbeatable.  This game could be interesting for a short time, but it will eventually get out of hand.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 88  Long Island 70

 

West Regional

 

#1 Duke 30-4 (15) vs. #16 Hampton 24-8 (-8)

Duke has nothing to worry about here.  This will be like one of their November/December home games where they quickly put the cupcake away with a barrage of power and speed.  You know the type: a 37-point win over Princeton; a 34-point win over Miami of Ohio; a 52-point win over Colgate.

 

Hampton got to the Dance using an aggressive defense and three-point shooting barrage on offense.  Duke will not be affected by the defensive pressure, and they will cut off the open shots from the outside.  It will be a mercy killing, and it will be quick.  Look for the Blue Devils to be up by more than 15 points before the halfway point of the first half.  By the time Coach K empties the bench, the Blue Devils should be up by 25-30 points.

 

Prediction: Duke 81  Hampton 61

 

#8 Michigan 20-13 (Elim) vs. #9 Tennessee 19-14 (10)

Michigan is the highest-rated team that fails to meet our R+T Rating requirement, so the Wolverines are automatically tabbed as a first-round loser.

 

Coach Jim Beilein has been in a similar position before.  He guided a West Virginia team with not-so-flashy Criteria numbers to the Elite Eight, where they forced Louisville to come from 20 points down to rally for the victory.  That WVU team had one of the worst negative rebounding numbers of any team in Elite Eight history, but that team made few mistakes and had a nice turnover margin.

 

This Michigan team was only outrebounded by two a game, but they do not create enough extra possessions with their miniscule turnover margin of 1.4 and their average of just 4.7 steals per game.

 

Tennessee has been up and down, and the Volunteers are not going to make a repeat run to the Elite Eight this year.  However, Coach Bruce Pearl’s troops will control the boards in this game and maybe force more turnovers than they commit.  We figure that Tennessee will have 10 more opportunities to score in this game, and that is too many for the Wolverines to make up with their three-point shooting.

 

Prediction: Tennessee 74  Michigan 69

 

#5 Arizona 27-7 (3) vs. #12 Memphis 25-9 (-1)

Memphis was not going to earn an at-large bid this season had they failed to win the Conference USA Tournament.  They received an ideal first round opponent, and the Tigers actually have a fighting chance to pull off yet another classic #12-seed over #5-seed upset.

 

Arizona needs to pound the ball inside and rely on numerous offensive rebounds to win this game.  Other teams might be able to exploit Memphis’s poor ball-handling skills, but the Wildcats do not have the defensive acumen to take advantage here.

 

Memphis will try to make this an up-tempo game where they can neutralize Arizona’s height advantage inside.  It has a chance of working, but Arizona probably has too much power inside and just enough quickness to stop the Tigers’ transition game.

 

Prediction: Arizona 76  Memphis 69

 

#4 Texas 27-7 (18) vs. #13 Oakland 25-9 (3)

This has become a popular upset pick in the media.  Oakland has generated a lot of positive press, and many “experts” are calling for the upset in this game.  We are not one of them.  Not only do we believe the Longhorns will take care of Oakland with relative ease in this game, we believe Texas is a force to be reckoned with in the next two or three rounds. 

 

Let’s look at Texas’ Criteria Rating.  At 18, the ‘Horns rate as our sixth best team in the tournament.  They have a 13.5 point scoring margin, a 7.1% field goal margin, a 6.6 rebounding margin, and a 1.2 turnover margin.  Their only Achilles Heel is a low amount of steals resulting in a R+T Rating of 8.3.  Had that number been above 10, we would be selecting Coach Rick Barnes’ team for the Final Four.

 

Oakland won this year with strong rebounding and an excellent ability to force their opponents into bad shots.  Center Keith Benson is a future NBA player, but he is not enough to propel the Golden Grizzlies into the next round.

 

Prediction: Texas 77  Oakland 65

 

#6 Cincinnati 25-8 (9) vs. #11 Missouri 23-9 (10)

On paper, this looks like the best game of this round between a team with contrasting styles.

 

Cincinnati is one of the top defensive teams in the tournament.  The Bearcats are tough inside, and they have quality depth to continue playing hard in the paint. 

 

Missouri uses the “40 minutes of Hell” approach that Coach Mike Anderson learned under his mentor Nolan Richardson.  The Tigers press full court and run the fast break as often as they get the chance.  They are perimeter-oriented and can score a lot of points in a hurry.

 

When we try to decide tossup games, we look to the all-important defense and rebounding stats, since that is what wins close games in the Big Dance. 

 

Missouri is vulnerable in both of these crucial areas.  They have given up a lot of cheap baskets this year when teams solved their press.  The Tigers were outrebounded by 1.7 boards per game.

 

Cincinnati owns a +2.7 rebounding margin, and the Bearcats held onto the ball quite competently.  We believe Coach Mick Cronin’s crew will advance.

 

Prediction: Cincinnati 68  Missouri 65

 

#3 Connecticut 26-9 (9) vs. #14 Bucknell 25-8 (-4)

Ask Kansas Coach Bill Self if it is wise to underestimate Bucknell.  The Bison know how to hold onto the ball and work for intelligent shots.  Give them an opening, and they can bury you with a high field goal percentage.

 

Connecticut did the unthinkable by winning five games in five days.  Their defense does not get the merit it deserves, because Kemba Walker gets more attention for his offensive antics.  The Huskies actually held teams under 40% from the field.

 

Coach Jim Calhoun knows how to prepare a team for tournament action.  He will have UConn ready for this game, and the Huskies will not overlook the Bison.

 

Prediction: Connecticut 73  Bucknell 58

 

#7 Temple 25-7 (5) vs. #10 Penn State 19-14 (-1)

Temple’s score must be tempered by the fact that they are a wounded team coming into this tournament.  Two starters suffered injuries late in the season, and one is out for the remainder of the year, while the other may or may not be ready to play.  We must throw out Temple’s score of “5” in the PiRate Criteria, because 40% of the key players that produced that number will either not play or be greatly less effective.

 

Penn State is a lot like Southern Cal in this tournament.  The Nittany Lions have the look of a strong NIT team.  Aside from a so-so record against a strong schedule, they really have little to offer outside of one star player. 

 

We believe this Keystone State rivalry game will be close, and it could come down to the last shot.  Because the Owls are limping, we will go with the Big Ten representative.

 

Prediction: Penn State 59  Temple 56

 

#2 San Diego State 32-2 (19) vs. #15 Northern Colorado 21-10 (-6)

Most of you reading this probably cannot remember Texas Western University, but you may have scene the movie where the Miners were too quick for Kentucky and pulled off the big upset to win the 1966 National Championship.  Maybe some of you remember the Long Beach State 49ers ascension into the top 10 under Jerry Tarkanian and then Lute Olson.  Still more can remember when Tark the Shark moved to UNLV and turned the Runnin’ Rebels into a national power.

 

San Diego State is the next Western team to fit this bill.  The Aztecs are legitimate contenders to advance deep into this tournament.  They have few exploitable weaknesses, and they are the best team West of the Rockies.  Coach Steve Fisher knows how to get teams ready for tournament play, as he has three Final Fours on his resume and one National Championship.

 

SDSU’s PiRate Criteria numbers are flashy.  Their scoring margin is 13.3 points per game.  Their FG% margin is 7.1%.  They outrebound their opposition by almost seven per game, and they force 1.6 more turnovers than they commit.  Their one weak spot is a pedestrian 6.2 steals average.  If they run up against a more powerful team inside, they could have trouble getting enough extra scoring opportunities.

 

Northern Colorado will not be one of those teams that can cause trouble for the Aztecs.  The Bears are a good rebounding team, but their rebounding prowess came against a schedule that rates 10 points weaker than San Diego State’s schedule.

 

Prediction: San Diego State 73  Northern Colorado 51

 

Southwest Regional

#1 Kansas 32-2 (23) vs. #16 Boston U 21-13 (-11)

Kansas is a team on a mission.  The Jayhawks will not allow a repeat of what happened last year, and that extra incentive should be enough to send KU to Houston.

 

Kansas has the top PiRate Criteria Score this year.  They meet the basic requirements that most prior National Champions have met—scoring margin: 17.2; FG% margin: 11.7; Rebounding margin: 7.8; Turnover Margin: 0.9; Steals per game: 7.9; R+T Ratings: 9.5.

 

How do you beat this year’s KU team?  Kansas State and Texas pulled it off by matching up well inside and going head-to-head with them in the paint.

 

Boston U has the second lowest PiRate Criteria score of the 65 teams that have positive R+T Ratings.  The Terriers are way overmatched in this game, and they will have to be glad they just made it here.

 

Prediction: Kansas 90  Boston U 62

 

#8 U N L V 24-8 (15) vs. #9 Illinois 19-13 (1)

If our ratings are worth their salt, then this game should not be all that close.  UNLV may be just the third best team in the Mountain West, but the MWC was better overall this year than the Pac-10.  Third best in the MWC makes the Runnin’ Rebels one of the dozen or so teams capable of making a two weekend run.

 

Coach Lon Kruger has taken two different teams to the Elite Eight (Kansas State and Florida).  His teams play intelligently without being flashy.

 

UNLV went 24-3 against teams not named Brigham Young or San Diego State.  They are not particularly strong on the boards, and this will eventually be their downfall.  The Rebels shoot the ball brilliantly, and they alter enough opponent shots to force a lower field goal percentage.  They also take care of the ball and do not make a lot of floor mistakes.

 

Illinois is an inconsistent, underachieving team.  This can be dangerous for the prognosticator, because it is difficult if not impossible to predict which schizophrenic state will appear for each game.

 

The Illini are not particularly strong on the glass or at taking care of the ball, and that is a recipe for disaster when the opponent is as good as UNLV.  Even if Illinois comes out playing their best basketball, it may not be enough to beat UNLV playing their typical game.

 

Prediction: U N L V  72  Illinois 64

 

#5 Vanderbilt 23-10 (5) vs. #12 Richmond 26-7 (2)

Here is another game getting a lot of attention due to its upset potential.  Historically, the #12 seed produces the a lot of great upsets.

 

This game could go either way.  Both teams have exploitable weaknesses, and it just so happens that both teams’ have the assets capable of exploiting the other’s weaknesses.

 

Let’s start with Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are not particularly strong on the defensive perimeter.  Worthy opponents have been able to beat them off the drive and get a lot of open inside shots.  This weak perimeter defense has also led to frontcourt players having to help, thus leaving open holes near the basket.

 

Richmond’s offense is a modified version of the Princeton Offense.  The Spiders have the talent to get open shots inside and in the five to ten-foot range.

 

Richmond cannot rebound against more physical teams.  The Spiders make up for their rebounding liabilities by seldom throwing the ball away.

 

Vanderbilt has an excellent physical presence inside with three beefy players that can rebound the ball on offense and defense.

 

So, which team gets the edge in our PiRate Ratings?  We always look to defense in rebounding in tossup games.  Vanderbilt holds the rebounding edge, while Richmond holds the defensive edge.  It is basically a wash, so we have to look elsewhere.  While Richmond has been much better away from home, Vanderbilt’s schedule is seven points more difficult.  We’ll go with the power conference team, but not by much

 

Prediction: Vanderbilt 70  Richmond 67

 

#4 Louisville 25-9 (12) vs. #13 Morehead State 24-9 (3)

This should be an interesting game, but in the end the big brothers are going to defeat their little brothers in this battle of two Bluegrass State teams.

 

40 years ago this week, another little brother upset a big brother on their way to a surprise appearance in the Final Four (later vacated).  In 1971, Western Kentucky did not just upset Kentucky, the Hilltoppers ran the Wildcats off the floor.  Can there be a repeat two score later?  No!

 

Coach Rick Pitino’s Cardinals are vulnerable on the boards, and Morehead State has the nation’s best rebounder in the nation in Kenneth Faried.  However, the Eagles do not have enough talent or depth to keep up with Louisville.  They may emerge with a slight rebounding edge in this game, but it will not be enough to make up for all the open shots the Cardinals will get.

 

Louisville is going to run into trouble when they meet up with a team that can rebound and play credible defense.  That would be Kansas in the Sweet 16.  Until then, they have a relatively easy route to the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Louisville 78  Morehead State 62

 

#6 Georgetown 21-10 (8) vs. #11 Southern Cal (-1)/Va. Commonwealth (-1)

Last year, we discussed Georgetown’s vulnerabilities and the probability that they would fail to make it past the first weekend.  We expected the Hoyas to fall as a favorite in their second game, but they were a one and done team.

 

This year’s team is not much better than last year’s Hoya team, but they received a much more favorable draw.

 

Coach John Thompson III’s Hoyas once again have a rather low R+T Rating thanks to a turnover margin of -1.9 and a low amount of steals per game.  They will exit from the tournament in the next round unless there is a monumental upset in their pairing.

 

Neither USC nor VCU has the talent to take advantage of Georgetown’s deficiencies.  The three teams combined have a R+T rating below Purdue’s.

 

One additional note: The Hoyas will be a tad bit better than their Criteria Score in the tournament.  Chris Wright suffered a hand fracture in the middle of the schedule, and he is expected to be near 100% for the tournament.  You have to add maybe one point to their Criteria Score, but that is not enough to put them over the top in their second game.

 

Prediction: Georgetown 69  Southern Cal 61 (or VCU 60)

 

#3 Purdue 25-7 (16) vs. #14 St. Peter’s 20-13 (-7)

If only… Purdue fans will never know just how good their team might have been with Robbie Hummel joining JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore playing together.  This would have been the best Boilermaker team since Rick Mount led Purdue to the Championship Game against UCLA in 1969.

 

The Boilermakers no longer have that one glaring weakness that Gene Keady’s teams had and thus prevented Purdue from getting past the second round.  This team does well on the boards like most of those past Purdue teams, but they are particularly strong when it comes to forcing turnovers and taking advantage by converting steals into points.  It is the way many teams go on runs that put opponents out of commission.

 

St. Peter’s just barely avoided being immediately eliminated with a negative R+T Rating.  They squeaked by at 0.1.  It might as well be a negative number, as the Peacocks were outrebounded by 0.4 per game and had a turnover margin of -0.9 against a schedule that was four points below average and seven points weaker than the schedule Purdue faced.

 

Prediction: Purdue 73  St. Peter’s 56

 

#7 Texas A&M 24-8 (8) vs. #10 Florida State 21-10 (2)

The Big 12’s third best team has enough talent to challenge for a Sweet 16 berth.  We’ll leave the next round for another time and talk about this game.

 

The Aggies have no glaring weakness, and they have a few strengths, namely rebounding and defense (which wins games in the NCAA Tournament).  They are much like Kansas Lite.  A&M was not a team of surprises during the regular season.  They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and failed to upset the teams better than they were.  We expect the trend to continue.  They are better than the Seminoles.

 

Florida State does not take good care of the ball, and that costs them in confrontations against good opponents.  The Seminoles do not play particularly well away from Tallahassee, and they should be making a quick exit from the Dance.

 

Prediction: Texas A&M 73  Florida State 65

 

#2 Notre Dame 26-6 (11) vs. #15 Akron 23-12 (-9)

This is the best Irish team since Digger Phelps led Notre Dame in the late 1980’s.  Throw in the fact that this team has a chip on its shoulders following a first round exit last year, and the Irish have to be considered the Sweet 16 favorite in their four-team pairing this weekend.

 

The Irish finished the regular season with a scoring margin of 10.4 points per game.  Down the stretch, they went 7-2 against teams in this tournament.  The Selection Committee placed Notre Dame in a bracket that should provide a very memorable Sweet 16 contest against one of their most bitter arch-rivals.

 

Akron has a big seven-foot center, but the Zips do not rebound the ball all that well.  Zeke Marshall, the aforementioned big man, concentrates his efforts on blocking shots, and he frequently is not in position to rebound the ball.  So, the blocked shot frequently turns into a made basket off an offensive rebound.  The Zips did not fare well on the road this year, and with a considerably weaker schedule than average, this does not bode well.

 

Prediction:  Notre Dame 81  Akron 57

 

Southeast Regional

#1 Pittsburgh 27-5 (18) vs. #16 UNC-Asheville (-5)/U A L R (-13)

One of us here at the PiRate Ratings might be dating himself, but he sees a lot of the 1962 Cincinnati Bearcats in this year’s Pitt team.  The Panthers have a dominating inside power game that will pulverize any finesse team that cannot hit 10 three-pointers.  Neither UNCA nor UALR has a remote chance to make this game a close contest.

 

Pitt outscored their opposition by 13.1 points per game.  This stat looks even better when you factor in that they compiled this gaudy stat playing in a league that produced 11 NCAA Tournament teams.  The Panthers outshot their opponents by 7.6%, and they totally dominated the glass with a 10.4 rebounding advantage.  If you are thinking the way to beat them is to play a packed in zone, think again.  Ashton Gibbs can bury you from outside with his near 50% three-point accuracy, and Brad Wannamaker can still get the ball inside to one of the bruisers waiting to punish you with a thunder dunk.

 

Only a negative turnover margin prevents the Panthers from being there with Kansas as a co-favorite for winning all the marbles.

 

Pitt’s cupcake opponent will have to be happy with winning their First Four game, because they will be humiliated in this game.

 

Prediction: Pittsburgh 78  UNC-Asheville 54 (or UALR 48)

 

#8 Butler 23-9 (7) vs. #9 Old Dominion 27-6 (10)

This is the second best matchup in this round, and the winner will put a scare into Pittsburgh in the next round and even have a decent shot at the upset.

 

Butler is now the hunted rather than the hunter.  The Bulldogs will not sneak up on anybody this year.  More importantly, they are not as talented as they were last year.  The Bulldogs fared much better on the road last year than this season.  However, down the stretch, Butler started to look like a team proficient enough to get past the first weekend once again.

 

Old Dominion has the talent to advance past the first weekend as well.  The Monarchs are a miniature version of Pittsburgh, the team they would face in the next round should they win this game.

 

ODU is the nation’s number one rebounding team with a +12.2 margin.  The Monarchs’ schedule was not outstanding, but it was on par with several teams from the so-called power conferences, and they finished 6-4 against teams in this tournament.  This is a better ODU team than the one that upset Notre Dame in the first round last year, and this game should be one you do not want to miss.

 

 

Prediction: Old Dominion 72  Butler 70 in overtime

 

#5 Kansas State 22-10 (9) vs. #12 Utah State 30-3 (14)

This is the one game where a number 12 seed winning would not really be all that much of an upset.  Utah State should have been a top eight seed in this tournament.  If we were conspiracy buffs, we would say that the Selection Committee searched for a team that the Aggies do not match up with all that well and placed them in this spot to verify their actions.

 

Kansas State does not take care of the ball well enough to advance very deep into this tournament, but their first game opponent cannot take advantage of that weakness.

 

Utah State has dominated their opponents by forcing them to play a patient half-court game with very little scoring in transition.  They prefer to work the ball patiently for a good shot and then force opponents to take a low-percentage shot.  Thus, the Aggies outrebound their opponents, but they do so by forcing more bad shots than by out-leaping their opponents.

 

Kansas State has the talent to force Utah State to play at a quicker tempo and force them to defend one-on-one.  Jacob Pullen is a poor man’s (and smaller) Derrick Rose.  He can break down most opponents off the dribble, and he should be able to force USU to resort to some type of combination defense to keep him from going wild.

 

What scares us most about Utah State is that they had two opportunities to show they are deserving of their lofty ranking.  They lost to BYU and to Georgetown, and they never really threatened to pull of the upset in either game.

 

This is one game where we are going to go against our own chalk.  Kansas State’s schedule was seven points tougher, and the Wildcats can exploit the Aggies’ weaknesses.

 

Prediction: Kansas State 70  Utah State 63

 

#4 Wisconsin 23-8 (7) vs. #13 Belmont 30-4 (9)

This game has become the most-picked upset special around the nation.  Belmont is being compared with Butler of last year.  The Bruins are lofty of all this attention-gathering admiration, but Wisconsin is not the Washington Generals.

 

Belmont has the highest scoring margin in the nation at 18.4 points per game.  The Bruins outshot their opposition by 5.7% per game, and they took a lot of three-point attempts.  They outrebounded their opponents by 3.9, and they had an eye-popping 5.3 turnover margin.  They share the top steals per game average in this tournament with Missouri at 9.7, and their R+T Rating is the best in the tournament at 16.2 (three better than number two Ohio State).

 

Of course, these statistics were compiled against inferior competition.  Belmont’s schedule strength is nine points below the national average and a dozen below their first round opponent.  Against the opponents that made it to this tournament, they were 1-3.  They beat Alabama State by 13.  The three losses were on the road to in-state rivals Tennessee (twice) and Vanderbilt, but they led in the second half of those games.

 

The last time Belmont was in the Big Dance, the Bruins came within a missed last shot of sending Duke home.   

 

Wisconsin was not expected to be this good in 2011.  This was supposed to be a minor rebuilding season for the Badgers.  The Badgers usually run Coach Bo Ryan’s Swing Offense with great efficiency, rarely turning the ball over.  They outscored their opponents by 9.9 points per game, and they outshot they outrebounded them by 3.8 boards per game. 

 

The Badgers have been a hot and cold team this year.  When they have been hot, they have been nearly unbeatable, because Ryan’s teams always limit possessions.  When they have been cold, they have been easily beatable, because Ryan’s teams always limit possessions.  They finished the season as cold as ice, so the Badgers must be considered a slight underdog in this game.

 

Prediction: Belmont 74  Wisconsin 70

 

#6 St. John’s 21-11 (9) vs. #11 Gonzaga 24-9 (13)

Here is a game where we believe the seedings should be switched.  Gonzaga has been here enough times to be considered a regular in the NCAA Tournament, like Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, and Connecticut.  This makes a baker’s dozen consecutive appearances in the Big Dance for the Bulldogs. 

 

In past years, Gonzaga had a big scorer that could take over games.  Adam Morrison comes to mind.  This year, the Zags are more difficult to prepare for, because they are more team-oriented.  There is not a big star on the roster, but all five starters are capable of taking the team on his shoulders with a hot night.

 

In their nine-game winning streak to close the season, Gonzaga eliminated Saint Mary’s from the Dance party with two victories.  The Bulldogs scoring margin in those nine games was 76-58.  This is a good team playing its best ball of the year, and we expect Coach Mark Few to win yet another NCAA Tournament game.

 

St. John’s comes into the tournament minus one of its stars.  Starting forward D. J. Kennedy went down for the season with a knee injury in the Big East Tournament, and the Red Storm is now suspect in the paint.  Their Criteria Score of nine should be discounted by two to three points.  It is enough to take this contest from tossup status to near-comfortable status for Gonzaga.

 

Prediction: Gonzaga 74  St. John’s 66

 

#3 Brigham Young 30-4 (18) vs. #14 Wofford 21-12 (-1)

So, you didn’t get a chance to see Pete Maravich play at LSU in 1968, 1969, or 1970, eh?  We must admit that nobody will ever be the collegiate equal for Maravich, but Jimmer Fredette may be the closest thing to him.

 

Throw out the floppy socks and floppy Beatles haircut and throw out some of the most unbelievable passes in the history of the game (so unbelievable that Maravich’s teammates frequently could not see them coming), and Fredette is not that far behind Maravich.

 

The sports nation will be turning its eyes to this game just to see if Fredette can make a run at a single game scoring mark.  If we remember correctly, Notre Dame’s Austin Carr set the mark back in 1970 with 61 points against Ohio U in a regional qualifier game.

 

BYU may have been a strong Final Four contender had Brandon Davies not loved his girlfriend so much.  The Cougars averaged 8.7 fewer points per game once Davies was suspended. 

 

Wofford will not be able to take much advantage of Davies’ absence.  The Terriers fared well in all PiRate Criteria categories, but they did not meet even the minimum “numbers to look for” in any category, and their schedule strength was five points below the norm. 

 

Prediction: Brigham Young 75  Wofford 63

 

#7 U C L A 22-10 (-3) vs. #10 Michigan State 19-14 (1)

If only this were a few years ago.  Neither of these historically dominating teams is going to make waves in this year’s tournament, and the winner will be around for just one more game.

 

UCLA would be a national title contender if Kevin Love had stuck around for four years.  Imagine Love as a senior on this team.  Can you say Bill Walton-like numbers?  Alas, the Bruins must get by with a couple of well above-average forwards instead of the best three-man tandem in the nation.

 

The Bruins have the worst turnover margin of any team in this tournament.  At -3.4, UCLA would need to dominate on the boards, and while they usually win that battle, it is anything but dominating.

 

Michigan State’s one asset year in and year out under Coach Tom Izzo has been their rebounding acumen.  For most teams, a +4.3 edge on the boards would be considered outstanding, but in East Lansing, this is considered a down year. 

 

Neither team has done all that well away from their home court this season, and there really is only one stat where one team stands out ahead of the other.  MSU’s schedule was four points tougher than UCLA’s schedule.  That’s our spread for this game.  

 

Prediction: Michigan State 64  UCLA 60

 

#2 Florida 26-7 (15) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara 18-13 (-10)

The Gators looked like a potential Final Four team in the last month, at least when they were not playing Kentucky.  UCSB is not Kentucky. 

 

Florida tends to commit too many floor mistakes to win four games in this year’s tournament.  They have enough talent to get through the first weekend, but we do not see the Gators extending their stay after that.

 

UCSB upset Long Beach State to get here, and the Gauchos are one of the weakest teams in the tournament according to our Criteria Score.  With negative rebounding and turnover margins, they just barely escape automatic elimination with a R+T rating of 0.3. 

 

Prediction: Florida 76  U C S B  54

 

 

 

Our Bracket

 

You have seen the 32 teams that we believe will win the second round games.  Here is how we fill out the rest of our bracket.

 

Third Round Winners

Ohio State over George Mason

Kentucky over West Virginia

Syracuse over Xavier

North Carolina over Washington

Duke over Tennessee

Texas over Arizona

Connecticut over Cincinnati

San Diego State over Penn State

Kansas over UNLV

Louisville over Vanderbilt

Purdue over Georgetown

Notre Dame over Texas A&M

Pittsburgh over Old Dominion

Kansas State over Belmont

Gonzaga over Brigham Young

Florida over Michigan State

 

Sweet 16 Winners

Ohio State over Kentucky

Syracuse over North Carolina

Texas over Duke

San Diego State over Connecticut

Kansas over Louisville

Purdue over Notre Dame

Pittsburgh over Kansas State

Florida over Gonzaga

 

Elite 8 Winners

Ohio State over Syracuse

Texas over San Diego State

Kansas over Purdue

Pittsburgh over Florida

 

Semifinal Winners

Ohio State over Texas

Kansas over Pittsburgh

 

National Championship

Kansas over Ohio State

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