The NCAA Championship Game–Butler vs. Duke

All The Marbles

Will Coach K Earn His Fourth Set Of Agates?

It started with 65; it’s down to two.  When they NCAA Tournament’s 2010 brackets were released three weeks ago, we here at the PiRate Ratings told you that our criteria showed that Kansas, Kentucky, and Syracuse were not going to make it to the final round.  We selected Duke based on a criteria score that blew the other teams out of the water.

Well, we are one win away from being able to say we have selected the national champion five times in the last six years, missing only on Florida in 2006. 

Before we break down the stats, let’s take a quick look something.  We’re talking about Duke here.  Consider this about this Blue Devil basketball team.  Their coach is with one of the best around.  Consider that this Duke team has two of the best inside players in the game and a couple of wing players that can shoot lights out.  Throw in a reserve who might be a star in the NBA in a few years, and this team looks unbeatable.

Now the opponent is coming into this game on a very long winning streak, longer than any team in many years.  This opponent is a bit undersized compared to Duke, but they have a unique style of play.  This opponent wins games with a huge spurt or two.  Except for those spurts, they appear to be little better than an above-average team.

Wait a minute!  We don’t want to mislead you here.  We’re not talking about 2010.  We’re talking about 1964.  That’s right.  In 1964, Duke had a sure-championship team with a top-notch coach in Vic Bubas, who had already guided Duke to a Final Four.  That team had two talented post players in 6-10 twin towers Jay Buckley and Hack Tison.  Wing player Jeff Mullins was a deadly shooter who could take it inside and finish the fast break.  On the bench, sophomore Jack Marin would be an NBA star in the latter part of the 1960’s and 1970’s.  That Blue Devil team looked unbeatable.

Their opponent was a small team with no starter over 6-5.  They came into the championship game on a 29-game winning streak.  They played a unique style of ball, pressing all over the floor and running the fast break on every opportunity.  They relied on a couple of spurts in every game, and the rest of the time, they basically played teams evenly.  That team, of course, was UCLA, and it was the first of 10 national champions produced by the legendary Wizard of Westwood—John Wooden.

Can Butler become the 2010 alternative to UCLA of 1964?  Their unique style of ball is completely different from Wooden’s Bruins, but it produces the same results.  Rather than rely on quick spurts in two minutes (UCLA scored 16 consecutive points on Duke in less than two minutes just before the end of the first half), Butler’s defense has long stretches where it holds opponents scoreless or to just a couple of points. 

Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, this is not 1964.  This Duke team is closer in comparison to the 1970 UCLA team, the one that had Henry Bibby, John Vallely, Curtis Rowe, Sidney Wicks, and Steve Patterson.  That Bruin team pounded opponents inside with brute force and stung them from outside with great perimeter shooting.  Thus, we strongly believe we will have successfully picked yet another national champion when the clock strikes zero.

Before getting to the PiRate Data which will predict the outcome of the game, let’s take a look at the position by position matchups.  We are guessing that the two Butler players who left the Michigan State game (Mack & Howard) will both be available to play but neither will be 100%.

Point Guard

                   Duke: John Scheyer                    Butler: Shelvin Mack

Neither player is your atypical point guard.  Both can lead their respective teams in scoring in any game and will come down the floor and pop a three point attempt before setting up any offensive play.

Scheyer is the better of the two when it comes to natural point guard duties, and he adds something extra—a rebounding force.

Mack suffered from dehydration in Saturday’s semifinal game, and he will be better hydrated for this game.  However, he won’t be 100%.

Advantage: Duke

Shooting Guard

                   Duke: Nolan Smith                     Butler: Ronald Nored

Nored is not much of an offensive threat, but he is a fairly good defensive player, especially in Butler’s help and recover defense.  He is a plus at the free throw line, but unless the Bulldogs are trying to nurse a small lead in the final minutes, this won’t come into play.

Smith is a stud.  He can drain the three and take a defender to the basket on the drive.  He will dominate Nored in this game, and this will be one of the areas where the Blue Devils will exploit.

Advantage: Duke

 

Small Forward

                   Duke: Kyle Singler                      Butler: Gordon Hayward

This is the matchup of the game.  Both teams’ best players square off.  The only chance Butler has of keeping the game close and having a chance to win is if Hayward is red hot and gets open shots, while Singler is ice cold, much like he was when Duke edge Baylor in the South Regional Finals.

We think Singler has a little more speed, but Hayward is a little more consistent.

Advantage: Tossup

 

Power Forward

          Duke: Lance Thomas                            Butler: Willie Veasley

The stats on paper point to a Butler advantage in this game, but Thomas has been a rebounding machine in this tournament.  While Singler, Scheyer, and Smith have been firing shots at rapid pace, Thomas has been banging like Charles Barkley and has been pulling down a large number of offensive rebounds.  If you’ve read any about our PiRate Criteria, you know how much we award an offensive rebound that leads to points.  It is not just gold; it is platinum.

Veasley isn’t chopped liver, and he could easily score 10-15 points in this game, but if Thomas gets four or more offensive rebounds, it won’t matter.

Advantage: Duke

 

Center

                   Duke: Brian Zoubek                    Butler: Matt Howard

When Thomas isn’t pulling down offensive rebounds, Zoubek is.  In fact, the big 7-1 center just may be the best offensive rebounder in college ball.  He won’t scare Butler offensively, but because he is a coordinated seven-footer, the Bulldogs have to prevent him from getting the ball in low.  That will allow the perimeter players to get open.

Howard suffered a mild concussion against Michigan State and is considered a game-time decision on whether he can play.  We expect he will play but will not be very effective.

Advantage: Duke

 

Bench

These teams remind us of teams from yesteryear in that neither relies all that much on depth.  Both go only eight deep for the most part, and none of the reserves on either side is likely to step up and have a big game.

Butler’s three contributing reserves will need to play much better against Duke than they did against Michigan State.  Zach Hahn is the best three-point shooter on either team, but he looked like he came in from the crowd rather than the bench in the semifinal game.  If he could play 12 minutes and hit two or three from behind the arc, it could give BU a shot in the arm and fire the rest of the team up.

Duke has three capable reserves that could start for half of the teams in college basketball.  If Andre Dawkins ever find “it,” he is going to be a real star.  He plays schizophrenically; he’s either the next Grant Hill or the next Benny Hill, and you never know what you are going to get.  The Plumlee Brothers, Miles and Mason are very consistent and supply positive minutes when they are in the game.

Advantage: Duke

NCAA National Championship Game

Monday, April 5, 2010

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

Tipoff: 9:21 EDT

 

Butler Bulldogs (33-4) vs. Duke Blue Devils (34-5)

 

Butler

 

Roster

No.	Name	Pos	Ht	Wt	Yr	Status
1	Shelvin Mack	G	6-3	215	So	Starter Status Unsure after injury vs. MSU
2	Shawn Vanzant	G	6-0	172	Jr	Key Reserve
3	Zach Hahn	G	6-1	176	Jr	Plays In Every Game
5	Ronald Nored	G	6-0	174	So	Starter
11	Alex Anglin	G/F	6-5	177	Jr	Seldom Plays
14	Nick Rodgers	G	6-2	168	Sr	Seldom Plays
20	Gordon Hayward	G/F	6-9	207	So	Starter
21	Willie Veasley	G/F	6-3	206	Sr	Starter
22	Grant Leiendecker	G	6-5	182	Jr	Seldom Plays
24	Avery Jukes	F	6-8	215	Sr	Plays In Every Game
30	Emerson Kampen	C	6-9	189	Fr	Seldom Plays
32	Garrett Butcher	F	6-7	209	So	Seldom Plays
33	Chase Stigall	G	6-4	195	Fr	Seldom Plays
44	Andrew Smith	C	6-11	239	Fr	Plays Considerable Time
54	Matt Howard	F	6-8	230	Jr	Starter Status Unsure after injury vs. MSU
HC	Brad Stevens
Ast	Matthew Graves
Ast	Terry Johnson
Ast	Micah Shrewsbury

 

Results

Record:33-4, 18-0 Horizon
Colors: Blue & White
Opponent	But	Opp
Davidson	73	62
at Northwestern	67	54
at Evansville	64	60
Minnesota (Anaheim)	73	82
UCLA (Anaheim)	69	67
Clemson (Anaheim)	69	70
at Ball State	59	38
Valparaiso	84	67
Georgetown (at NYC)	65	72
Ohio State	74	66
Xavier	69	68
at Alabama-Birmingham	57	67
UW-Green Bay	72	49
UW-Milwaukee	80	67
at Wright State	77	65
at Detroit	64	62	ot
Cleveland State	64	55
Youngstown State	91	61
at Loyola of Chicago	48	47
at Illinois-Chicago	84	55
at UW-Green Bay	75	57
at UW-Milwaukee	73	66
Detroit	63	58
Wright State	74	62
Loyola of Chicago	62	47
at Youngstown State	68	57
at Cleveland State	70	59
Illinois-Chicago	73	55
Siena (Bracketbuster)	70	53
at Valparaiso	74	69
UW-Milwaukee (Horizon Trn)	68	59
Wright State (Horizon Trn)	70	45
UTEP (NCAA)	77	59
Murray State (NCAA)	54	52
Syracuse (NCAA)	63	59
Kansas State (NCAA)	63	56
Michigan State (NCAA Final 4)	52	50

 

Statistics

Player	Min/G	Pts	Reb	FG%	3pt %	FT%	Ast	Bk	Stl
Gordon Hayward	33.3	15.6	8.3	47.2	29.9	82.2	61	30	39
Shelvin Mack	30.9	14.2	3.7	45.7	38.9	73.4	113	5	50
Matt Howard	25.4	11.6	5.2	48.5	27.3	79.0	30	23	22
Willie Veasley	31.2	10.0	4.3	49.4	36.0	65.5	33	9	43
Ronald Nored	30.1	6.0	2.9	40.8	18.2	62.3	135	4	66
Zach Hahn	15.6	4.9	0.9	43.0	40.9	92.9	24	0	13
Shawn Vanzant	14.6	2.8	1.7	32.1	30.4	72.5	45	6	15
Avery Jukes	10.4	2.7	1.2	37.6	34.4	69.4	5	5	6
Garrett Butcher	5.6	0.5	1.0	19.4	11.1	33.3	1	1	2
Team Stats	But	Opp
Points	69.0	59.4
FG%	44.5	41.5
3PT %	34.2	31.8
FT%	73.8	68.0
Rebounds	32.6	29.9
Turnovers	12.1	14.0
Steals	7.1	5.3
Blocks	2.3	3.1
Off. Rebound %	29.7
Possessions/G *	64.9
Offensive Rebound % = Off. Reb/(Off. Reb + Opp. Def Reb + Opp. Dead Ball Def Reb)
* Avg Possessions estimated and based on this formula
FG attempts + (.5* FT attempts) + Turnovers – Offensive Rebounds

 

Duke

 

Roster

No.	Name	Pos	Ht	Wt	Yr	Status
2	Nolan Smith	G	6-2	185	Jr	Starter
3	Seth Curry	G	6-1	175	So	Does Not Play
5	Mason Plumlee	F	6-10	230	Fr	Key Reserve
12	Kyle Singler	F	6-8	230	Jr	Starter
13	Olek Czyz	F				Seldom Plays
20	Andre Dawkins	G	6-4	190	Fr	Key Reserve
21	Miles Plumlee	F	6-10	240	So	Key Reserve
30	Jon Scheyer	G	6-5	190	Sr	Starter
34	Ryan Kelly	F	6-10	220	Fr	Key Reserve
41	Jordan Davidson	G	6-1	180	Sr	Seldom Plays
42	Lance Thomas	F	6-8	225	Sr	Starter
51	Steve Johnson	F	6-5	210	Jr	Seldom Plays
52	Todd Zafirovski	F	6-8	240	Fr	Does Not Play
53	Casey Peters	G	6-4	185	Jr	Seldom Plays
55	Brian Zoubek	C	7-1	260	Sr	Starter
HC	Mike Krzyzewski
Ast	Steve Wojciechowski
Ast	Chris Collins
Ast	Nate James

 

Results

Record: 34-5, 13-3 ACC
Colors: Royal Blue & White
Opponent	Duke	Opp
UNC Greensboro	96	62
Coastal Carolina (Pre NIT)	74	49
Charlotte (Pre NIT)	101	59
Radford	104	67
Arizona State (Pre NIT @NYC)	64	53
Connecticut (Pre NIT @ NYC)	68	59
at Wisconsin (ACC/B10)	69	73
St. John’s	80	71
Gardner-Webb	113	68
Gonzaga (at NYC)	76	41
Long Beach State	84	63
Penn	114	55
Clemson	74	53
Iowa State (at Chicago)	86	65
at Georgia Tech	67	71
Boston College	79	59
Wake Forest	90	70
at N. C. State	74	88
at Clemson	60	47
Florida State	70	56
at Georgetown	77	89
Georgia Tech	86	67
at Boston College	66	63
at North Carolina	64	54
Maryland	77	56
at Miami (FL)	81	74
Virginia Tech	67	55
Tulsa	70	52
at Virginia	67	49
at Maryland	72	79
North Carolina	82	50
Virginia (ACC Tournament)	57	46
Miami (FL) (ACC Tournament)	77	74
Georgia Tech (ACC Tournament)	65	61
Ark. Pine Bluff (NCAA)	73	44
California (NCAA)	68	53
Purdue (NCAA)	70	57
Baylor (NCAA)	78	71
West Virginia (NCAA Final 4)	78	57

 

Player	Min/G	Pts	Reb	FG%	3pt %	FT%	Ast	Bk	Stl
Jon Scheyer	36.7	18.3	3.5	39.9	38.7	88.0	189	8	64
Kyle Singler	35.8	17.6	6.9	41.2	39.6	79.6	94	30	40
Nolan Smith	35.4	17.5	2.8	44.4	39.9	79.9	110	9	45
Brian Zoubek	18.3	5.5	7.7	63.5	0.0	55.4	38	29	27
Miles Plumlee	16.5	5.3	5.0	56.8	100.0	66.1	12	25	19
Lance Thomas	25.1	4.7	4.9	43.3	0.0	74.3	36	8	22
Andre Dawkins	12.8	4.6	1.2	40.0	38.3	73.5	13	2	11
Mason Plumlee	14.5	3.8	3.2	46.2	25.0	54.3	30	30	18
Ryan Kelly	6.5	1.2	1.1	35.6	26.3	66.7	13	14	8
Team Stats	Duke	Opp
Points	77.4	61.0
FG%	44.1	40.3
3PT %	38.7	28.1
FT%	76.1	68.7
Rebounds	39.1	32.7
Turnovers	10.9	14.3
Steals	6.6	6.3
Blocks	4.0	4.0
Off. Rebound % ^	40.3
Possessions/G *	67.2
^ Offensive Rebound % = Off. Reb/(Off. Reb + Opp. Def Reb + Opp. Dead Ball Def Reb)
* Avg Possessions estimated and based on this formula
FG attempts + (.5* FT attempts) + Turnovers – Offensive Rebounds

 

 

PiRate Criteria Comparison

 

Stat	Duke	Pts	Butler	Pts
Scoring Margin	16.4	5	9.6	3
FG% Margin	3.80%	0	3.00%	0
Rebound Margin	6.4	3	2.7	0
Turnover Margin	3.4	3	1.9	1
R+T *	11.79	11.79	5.94	5.94
Road W-L	17-5	3	16-4	3
Schedule Strength	61.05	11.05	60.62	10.62
Total	Duke	36.8	Butler *	25.6
* Butler Receives 2 extra points for quasi-home team advantage
Duke has a PiRate Criteria Advantage of 11.2 points
This Computes To An Overall Advantage of 15 points
* R+T is a formula that combines rebounding margin and turnover margin.  It is weighted
to give turnover margin a little more clout and steals even more clout based on the fact that
turnovers, especially steals, produce a higher percentage of easy fast break points.
R+T Formula: R+T= (.2S * 1.2T)+ R
R = Rebounding Margin, T = Turnover Margin, S = Avg. Steals per Game
If Turnover Margin is a negative number, then Steals are dropped from the formula
	PiRate Prediction
	Duke 70
	Butler 55

 

A PiRate Look At The Final Four

The PiRate All-Inclusive Look At The Final Four

Rosters, Stats, Results, PiRate Criteria Scores, and Analysis

National Semifinals

Date: Saturday, April 3, 2010

Place: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

Our PiRate NCAA Tournament Criteria correctly picked half the field this year, getting it right with Duke and West Virginia.  We just missed getting three as Butler edged our pick from the West Regional, Kansas State, in the Elite 8.

Our overall number one pick and selection to win the Big Dance back when the field was announced is still going strong, and if the Blue Devils win it all Monday night, the PiRate picking formula will have succeeded in picking the National Champion for the fourth time in five years.

If the NCAA Tournament expands to 96 teams as it looks like might happen, we aren’t sure we will be able to handle the extra work to get this published.  33 extra teams might just be too much to get ready in a couple days.  To tell you the truth, 96 teams would be too much to keep our attention.  We would forget the first three rounds and do something else.  Heck, we might forget the tournament altogether.

Okay, let’s get down to the meat of this edition—The National Semifinal Round.

Game One: 6:07 PM EDT

 

Butler Bulldogs (32-4) vs. Michigan State Spartans (28-8)

 

Butler

 

Roster

No.	Name	Pos	Ht	Wt	Yr	Status
1	Shelvin Mack	G	6-3	215	So	Starter
2	Shawn Vanzant	G	6-0	172	Jr	Key Reserve
3	Zach Hahn	G	6-1	176	Jr	Plays In Every Game
5	Ronald Nored	G	6-0	174	So	Starter
11	Alex Anglin	G/F	6-5	177	Jr	Seldom Plays
14	Nick Rodgers	G	6-2	168	Sr	Seldom Plays
20	Gordon Hayward	G/F	6-9	207	So	Starter
21	Willie Veasley	G/F	6-3	206	Sr	Starter
22	Grant Leiendecker	G	6-5	182	Jr	Seldom Plays
24	Avery Jukes	F	6-8	215	Sr	Plays In Every Game
30	Emerson Kampen	C	6-9	189	Fr	Seldom Plays
32	Garrett Butcher	F	6-7	209	So	Seldom Plays
33	Chase Stigall	G	6-4	195	Fr	Seldom Plays
44	Andrew Smith	C	6-11	239	Fr	Plays Considerable Time
54	Matt Howard	F	6-8	230	Jr	Starter
HC	Brad Stevens
Ast	Matthew Graves
Ast	Terry Johnson
Ast	Micah Shrewsbury

 

Record:32-4, 18-0 Horizon
Colors: Blue & White
Opponent	But	Opp
Davidson	73	62
at Northwestern	67	54
at Evansville	64	60
Minnesota (Anaheim)	73	82
UCLA (Anaheim)	69	67
Clemson (Anaheim)	69	70
at Ball State	59	38
Valparaiso	84	67
Georgetown (at NYC)	65	72
Ohio State	74	66
Xavier	69	68
at Alabama-Birmingham	57	67
UW-Green Bay	72	49
UW-Milwaukee	80	67
at Wright State	77	65
at Detroit	64	62	ot
Cleveland State	64	55
Youngstown State	91	61
at Loyola of Chicago	48	47
at Illinois-Chicago	84	55
at UW-Green Bay	75	57
at UW-Milwaukee	73	66
Detroit	63	58
Wright State	74	62
Loyola of Chicago	62	47
at Youngstown State	68	57
at Cleveland State	70	59
Illinois-Chicago	73	55
Siena (Bracketbuster)	70	53
at Valparaiso	74	69
UW-Milwaukee (Horizon Trn)	68	59
Wright State (Horizon Trn)	70	45
UTEP (NCAA)	77	59
Murray State (NCAA)	54	52
Syracuse (NCAA)	63	59
Kansas State (NCAA)	63	56

 

Stats

 

Player	Min/G	Pts	Reb	FG%	3pt %	FT%	Ast	Bk	Stl
Gordon Hayward	33.1	15.5	8.2	47.4	29.5	82.7	61	28	37
Shelvin Mack	31.0	14.2	3.8	45.5	38.6	73.6	112	5	49
Matt Howard	25.7	11.8	5.3	49.4	27.3	79.2	30	23	21
Willie Veasley	31.1	10.1	4.3	49.8	36.9	64.7	33	9	39
Ronald Nored	29.9	6.0	2.9	41.8	18.2	61.2	133	4	63
Zach Hahn	15.8	5.1	0.9	43.9	42.0	92.9	24	0	13
Shawn Vanzant	14.5	2.8	1.7	32.1	30.4	73.5	43	6	15
Avery Jukes	10.1	2.7	1.2	39.2	37.9	69.4	5	5	5
Garrett Butcher	5.6	0.5	1.0	19.4	11.1	33.3	1	1	2
Team Stats	But	Opp
Points	69.4	59.6
FG%	44.9	41.5
3PT %	34.5	31.7
FT%	73.9	68.3
Rebounds	32.6	29.7
Turnovers	12.2	13.9
Steals	7.0	5.3
Blocks	2.3	3.0
Off. Rebound %	27.5
Possessions/G *	65.1
* Possessions/G estimated and based on this formula
FG attempts + (.5* FT attempts) + Turnovers – Offensive Rebounds

 

PiRate Criteria Score

 

Stat	Butler
Scoring Margin	9.8
Points	3
FG% Margin	3.40%
Points	0
Rebound Margin	3.2
Points	1
Turnover Margin	1.7
Points	1
R+T *	6.06
Road W-L	15-4
Points	3
Schedule Strength	6.65
Sub-total	20.71
Butler Gets an extra 2 points for quasi-home court advantage
Total	22.71

 

* R+T is a formula that combines rebounding margin and turnover margin.  It is weighted
to give turnover margin a little more clout and steals even more clout based on the fact that
turnovers, especially steals, produce a higher percentage of easy fast break points than do most rebounds.
R+T Formula: R+T= (.2S * 1.2T)+ R
R = Rebounding Margin, T = Turnover Margin, S = Avg. Steals per Game
If Turnover Margin is a negative number, then Steals are dropped from the formula

 

 

 

 

Michigan State

 

Roster

No.	Name	Pos	Ht	Wt	Yr	Status
1	Kalin Lucas	G	6-0	190	Jr	Injured–Out For Season
2	Raymar Morgan	F	6-8	230	Sr	Starter
3	Chris Allen	G	6-3	205	Jr	Key Reserve
10	Delvon Roe	F	6-8	230	So	Starter
13	Austin Thornton	G	6-5	220	So	Plays Some in Every Game
15	Durrell Summers	G	6-4	205	Jr	Starter
20	Mike Kebler	G	6-4	205	Jr	Plays Infrequently
22	Isaiah Dahlman	G	6-6	195	Sr	Plays Infrequently
23	Draymond Green	F	6-6	235	So	Plays as Much as a Starter
25	Jon Crandell	F	6-8	230	Sr	Seldom Plays
34	Korie Lucious	G	5-11	170	So	Starter–replaced Lucas
40	Tom Herzog	C	7-0	250	Jr	Seldom Plays
41	Garrick Sherman	C	6-10	235	Fr	Plays Some in Every Game
44	Anthony Ianni	C	6-9	260	Jr	Does Not Play
50	Derrick Nix	C	6-8	280	Fr	Starter
HC	Tom Izzo
Ast	Mark Montgomery
Ast	Dwayne Stephens
Ast	Mike Garland

 

Record:28-8, 14-4 Big Ten
Colors: Green & White
Opponent	MSU	Opp
Florida Gulf Coast	97	58
Gonzaga	75	71
Toledo (Legends Classic)	75	62
Valparaiso (Legends Classic)	90	60
Florida (Legends Classic)	74	77
U Mass (Legends Classic)	106	68
at North Carolina (ACC/Big Ten)	82	89
Wofford	72	60
at Citadel	69	56
Oakland	88	57
I P F W	80	58
at Texas	68	79
Texas-Arlington	87	68
at Northwestern	91	70
Wisconsin	54	47
at Iowa	71	53
Minnesota	60	53
Illinois	73	63
Iowa	70	63
at Minnesota	65	64
at Michigan	57	56
Northwestern	79	70
at Wisconsin	49	67
at Illinois	73	78
Purdue	64	76
at Penn State	65	54
at Indiana	72	58
Ohio State	67	74
Penn State	67	65
Michigan	64	48
Minnesota (Big Ten Trn)	67	72
New Mexico State (NCAA)	70	67
Maryland (NCAA)	85	83
Northern Iowa (NCAA)	59	52
Tennessee (NCAA)	70	69

 

Stats

Player	Min/G	Pts	Reb	FG%	3pt %	FT%	Ast	Bk	Stl
Kalin Lucas-Inj.	31.1	14.8	1.9	45.3	35.4	77.2	131	2	40
Morgan Raymar	27.3	11.5	6.2	53.5	31.3	68.1	62	24	37
Durrell Summers	25.9	11.2	4.6	45.3	35.9	80.3	31	3	25
Draymond Green	25.4	9.8	7.8	52.7	13.3	68.3	111	32	44
Chris Allen	25.7	8.5	2.9	43.0	39.8	73.3	73	3	16
Delvon Roe	20.6	6.5	5.0	55.9	0.0	66.1	41	34	31
Korie Lucious	22.5	5.4	1.7	33.7	30.8	73.7	114	5	26
Derrick Nix	7.8	2.4	2.1	50.7	0.0	27.1	8	6	7
Garrick Sherman	7.2	1.9	1.6	58.8	0.0	55.6	3	5	4
Austin Thornton	5.7	1.1	1.1	35.0	20.0	100.0	9	0	3
Team Stats	MSU	Opp
Points	72.4	64.1
FG%	47.2	40.8
3PT %	34.3	33.1
FT%	68.8	70.9
Rebounds	38.6	29.9
Turnovers	13.8	12.5
Steals	6.6	6.4
Blocks	3.3	2.6
Off. Rebound %	39.9
Possessions/G *	67.2
* Avg Possessions estimated and based on this formula
FG attempts + (.5* FT attempts) + Turnovers – Offensive Rebounds

 

PiRate Criteria Score

 

Stat	Michigan St.
Scoring Margin	8.3
Points	3
FG% Margin	6.40%
Points	1
Rebound Margin	8.1
Points	3
Turnover Margin	-1.3
Points	-2
R+T *	6.54
Road W-L	13-6
Points	2
Schedule Strength	8.74
Total	22.28

 

 

Analysis: First things first.  Butler is not a surprise team in the Final Four, or at least not a surprise in that they come from a smaller conference.  UNLV was once a small team from a small conference that made four trips to the Final Four and won the most lopsided Championship Game ever.  Marquette was a small Midwestern school that became a national power in the late 1950’s through the late 1970’s.

Butler is no different than UNLV or Marquette.  The Bulldogs have been as powerful as a Villanova, Ohio State, or Tennessee in recent years.  They have been a regular fixture, like Gonzaga.

Throw in some home-town advantage, and it’s easy to see why the Bulldogs are actually favored in this game.  There is one problem.  They have very little inside depth to match up with the Spartans’ inside game.

Michigan State won’t have their all-star playmaker Kalin Lucas on hand, but the Spartans will be able to cover that weakness up against Butlers’ gamble-free defense.  Lucious has been more than adequate as a play-maker in Lucas’s place, and Green, Allen, and Morgan have become competent runners of the offense as point forwards.

Most Final Four games are decided by guard play, but we see this game being the exception.  We believe the outcome hinges on the performances of the teams’ frontcourts.  Butler has Howard and Hayward and little else, so neither player can afford to get into foul trouble. 

The Spartans, as usual, dominate on the glass in most games.  In addition to Morgan, Green, and Roe, guards Summers and Allen can rebound like forwards.  Izzo has more options in reserve inside. 

The Criteria show this game to be a tossup, and thus a clear-cut favorite cannot be established.  However, all five of us lean toward the Spartans to win based on their superiority inside.

Prediction: Michigan State 63  Butler 56

 

Game Two: 8:47 PM EDT

 

Duke Blue Devils (33-5) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (31-6)

 

Duke

 

Roster

No.	Name	Pos		Ht		Wt	Yr		Status
2	Nolan Smith	G		6-2		185	Jr		Starter
3	Seth Curry	G		6-1		175	So		Does Not Play
5	Mason Plumlee	F		6-10		230	Fr		Key Reserve
12	Kyle Singler	F		6-8		230	Jr		Starter
13	Olek Czyz	F							Seldom Plays
20	Andre Dawkins	G		6-4		190	Fr		Key Reserve
21	Miles Plumlee	F		6-10		240	So		Key Reserve
30	Jon Scheyer	G		6-5		190	Sr		Starter
34	Ryan Kelly	F		6-10		220	Fr		Key Reserve
41	Jordan Davidson	G		6-1		180	Sr		Seldom Plays
42	Lance Thomas	F		6-8		225	Sr		Starter
51	Steve Johnson	F		6-5		210	Jr		Seldom Plays
52	Todd Zafirovski	F		6-8		240	Fr		Does Not Play
53	Casey Peters	G		6-4		185	Jr		Seldom Plays
55	Brian Zoubek	C		7-1		260	Sr		Starter
HC	Mike Krzyzewski
Ast	Steve Wojciechowski
Ast	Chris Collins
Ast	Nate James
Record: 33-5, 13-3 ACC
Colors: Royal Blue & White
Opponent			Duke		Opp
UNC Greensboro			96		62
Coastal Carolina (Pre NIT)			74		49
Charlotte (Pre NIT)			101		59
Radford			104		67
Arizona State (Pre NIT @NYC)			64		53
Connecticut (Pre NIT @ NYC)			68		59
at Wisconsin (ACC/B10)			69		73
St. John’s			80		71
Gardner-Webb			113		68
Gonzaga (at NYC)			76		41
Long Beach State			84		63
Penn			114		55
Clemson			74		53
Iowa State (at Chicago)			86		65
at Georgia Tech			67		71
Boston College			79		59
Wake Forest			90		70
at N. C. State			74		88
at Clemson			60		47
Florida State			70		56
at Georgetown			77		89
Georgia Tech			86		67
at Boston College			66		63
at North Carolina			64		54
Maryland			77		56
at Miami (FL)			81		74
Virginia Tech			67		55
Tulsa			70		52
At Virginia			67		49
at Maryland			72		79
North Carolina			82		50
Virginia (ACC Tournament)			57		46
Miami (FL) (ACC Tournament)			77		74
Georgia Tech (ACC Tournament)			65		61
Ark. Pine Bluff (NCAA)			73		44
California (NCAA)			68		53
Purdue (NCAA)			70		57
Baylor (NCAA)			78		71

 

 

Stats

Player	Min/G	Pts	Reb	FG%	3pt %	FT%	Ast	Bk	Stl
Jon Scheyer	36.7	18.2	3.6	39.5	38.1	88.2	183	8	62
Kyle Singler	35.7	17.6	6.9	40.9	39.1	79.4	89	30	40
Nolan Smith	35.4	17.4	2.8	44.4	39.6	78.3	104	9	45
Brian Zoubek	18.1	5.5	7.6	63.2	0.0	55.4	35	29	27
Miles Plumlee	16.6	5.4	5.1	56.6	100.0	66.1	12	25	18
Lance Thomas	24.9	4.8	4.9	43.2	0.0	74.3	36	8	21
Andre Dawkins	12.9	4.7	1.2	40.0	38.3	73.5	13	2	11
Mason Plumlee	14.7	3.8	3.3	46.2	28.6	54.3	30	29	17
Ryan Kelly	6.6	1.2	1.1	35.6	26.3	66.7	13	14	8
Team Stats	Duke	Opp
Points	77.4	61.1
FG%	43.9	40.2
3PT %	38.2	27.8
FT%	76.1	68.5
Rebounds	39.3	32.8
Turnovers	11.1	14.4
Steals	6.7	5.4
Blocks	4.1	4.0
Off. Rebound % ^	40.3
Possessions/G *	67.5
^ Offensive Rebound % is based on this formula
Offensive Rebounds/(Opponents’ Defensive Rebounds + Defensive Dead Ball Rebounds)
* Avg Possessions estimated and based on this formula
FG attempts + (.5* FT attempts) + Turnovers – Offensive Rebounds

PiRate Criteria Score

Stat Duke Scoring Margin 16.3 Points 5 FG% Margin 3.70% Points 0 Rebound Margin 5.9 Points 3 Turnover Margin 3.3 Points 3 R+T * 11.21 Road W-L 16-5 Points 3 Schedule Strength 10.39     Total 35.6

West Virginia

 

Roster

No.	Name	Pos	Ht	Wt	Yr	Status
1	Da’Sean Butler	F	6-7	230	Sr	Starter
2	Cam Thoroughman	F	6-7	240	Jr	Plays Some in Every Game
3	Devin Ebanks	F	6-9	215	So	Starter
4	Jonnie West	G	6-3	195	Jr	Seldom Plays–Son of Jerry West
5	Kevin Jones	F	6-8	250	So	Starter
12	Kenny Ross	G	6-0	175	Fr	Does Not Play
15	Bryan Lowther	G	6-6	215	Fr	Does Not Play
20	Cam Payne	G	6-4	225	So	Seldom Plays
21	Joe Mazzulla	G	6-2	200	Jr	Starter in Replace of Bryant
25	Darryl Bryant	G	6-2	200	So	Broken Bone in Foot Will Try To Play
30	Danny Jennings	F	6-8	260	Fr	Plays Infrequently
32	Dalton Pepper	G	6-5	215	Fr	Plays Infrequently
33	Casey Mitchell	G	6-4	225	Jr	Key Reserve
35	Wellington Smith	F	6-7	245	Sr	Starter
41	John Flowers	F	6-7	215	Jr	Key Reserve
42	Deniz Kilicli	F	6-9	260	Fr	Plays Infrequently

 

Record: 31-6, 13-5 Big East
Colors: Old Gold & Blue
Opponent	WVU	Opp
Loyola of Md	83	60
Citadel (at Charleston, WV)	69	50
Long Beach State (Anaheim)	85	62
Texas A&M (Anaheim)	73	66
Portland (Anaheim)	84	66
Duquesne	68	39
Coppin State	69	43
at Cleveland State	80	78
Ole Miss	76	66
at Seton Hall	90	84	ot
Marquette	63	62
at Purdue	62	77
Rutgers	86	52
at Notre Dame	68	70
at South Florida	69	50
Syracuse	71	72
Marshall (at Charleston, WV)	68	60
Ohio State	71	65
at Depaul	62	46
Louisville	77	74
Pittsburgh	70	51
at St. John’s	79	60
Villanova	75	82
at Pittsburgh	95	98	3ot
at Providence	88	74
Seton Hall	75	63
at Connecticut	62	73
Cincinnati	74	68
Georgetown	81	68
at Villanova	68	66	ot
Cincinnati (Big East Trn)	74	68
Notre Dame (Big East Trn)	53	51
Georgetown (Big East Trn)	60	58
Morgan State (NCAA)	77	50
Missouri (NCAA)	68	59
Washington (NCAA)	69	56
Kentucky (NCAA)	73	66

 

Stats

Player	Min/G	Pts	Reb	FG%	3pt %	FT%	Ast	Bk	Stl
Da’Sean Butler	36.0	17.4	6.3	41.6	35.7	78.3	117	15	36
Kevin Jones	32.9	13.7	7.2	52.4	40.6	67.6	40	33	22
Devin Ebanks	34.1	12.0	8.2	45.3	10.0	76.8	82	23	36
Darryl Bryant	24.3	9.3	2.2	34.6	31.5	75.7	108	1	25
Wellington Smith	23.0	6.5	4.1	46.0	35.3	59.5	46	36	27
Casey Mitchell	8.3	3.8	0.9	32.1	30.2	84.2	13	0	10
Deniz Kilicli	6.6	3.4	0.9	50.0	0.0	55.6	1	0	0
Dalton Pepper	7.8	3.2	0.6	37.1	33.3	72.7	16	1	4
John Flowers	14.4	3.0	2.4	43.6	31.8	46.8	45	28	21
Joe Mazzulla	15.6	2.6	1.8	36.7	12.5	57.1	85	1	24
Team Stats	WVU	Opp
Points	72.8	63.1
FG%	43.1	41.3
3PT %	33.6	31.6
FT%	70.3	67.8
Rebounds	38.9	32.3
Turnovers	11.9	13.6
Steals	5.7	6.2
Blocks	4.1	3.0
Off. Rebound %	38.8
Possessions/G *	65.8
* Avg Possessions estimated and based on this formula
FG attempts + (.5* FT attempts) + Turnovers – Offensive Rebounds

 

PiRate Criteria Score

Stat	WVU
Scoring Margin	9.7
Points	3
FG% Margin	0.18%
Points	0
Rebound Margin	6.9
Points	3
Turnover Margin	2.7
Points	1
R+T *	7.45
Road W-L	19-4
Points	3
Schedule Strength	10.96
Total	28.41

 

Analysis: Most fans, prognosticators, and pundits believe this is the real championship game between the two best teams left in the tournament.  We cannot disagree, as the criteria scores show both to be better than the other two teams.  What it should be is a more interesting game.  West Virginia’s 1-3-1 zone defense is a throwback to an earlier time when there was no three-point line.  Its natural weakness is on deep sides, where really good outside shooters can load up on three-point shots against it.  WVU rebounds exceptionally well out of this zone defense, thanks to the size and quickness of the three big men—Butler, Jones, and Ebanks.

Duke’s inside game isn’t as quick as the Mountaineers, but it could be even stronger.  Zoubek, Singler, and the Plumlee brothers know how to throw around their muscle.  This should make the inside game a wash.

We believe the Blue Devils will win this game because of their exceptional backcourt.  Scheyer and Smith will find the seams in the Mountaineer zone and hit crucial three-pointers throughout the game.  Singler will get into the act as well.

West Virginia’s only hope is that Butler (Da’Sean and not the school from Indianapolis) will have one of those terrific games.  He can keep WVU in it, but in the end we believe the Blue Devils will have just a little too many weapons.

Prediction: Duke 73  West Virginia 65

 

Coming Sunday—A look at the big game for all the marbles.

A PiRate Preview of Saturday’s Regional Final Games

 

Saturday’s Regional Finals

Advanced Level Bracketnomics

 

Thursday night’s regional semifinal games proved that the PiRate NCAA Tournament formula is based on sound principles.  The teams that earned the most scoring opportunities won the games, even though they didn’t all shoot better from the field or at the charity stripe.

By more scoring opportunities, we refer to the team that fares better in controlling the boards and in turnovers.  As we have previously stated, a turnover created is worth a little more than a rebound, and a steal is worth more than any other turnover.

Butler stole the ball 13 times and ended with a +11 turnover margin against Syracuse.  The Orangemen won the battle of the boards by six, but that left the Bulldogs with a huge R+T advantage.

West Virginia dominated Washington on the glass, winning the rebounding margin by 16.  They won the turnover battle in almost a wash, and when a team has a +16 rebounding advantage with equalization in turnovers, they win about 98% of the time.

Kansas State and Xavier played possibly the best game in the entire tournament so far.  The Wildcats were outrebounded by two but had a +4 turnover margin.  They only picked up four steals, so they enjoyed only a marginal scoring opportunity advantage.  Thus, you had a terrific, nail-biter.

Kentucky dominated Cornell in the R+T rating, and the Wildcats proved that 3-point and free throw shooting isn’t as important as number of scoring opportunities when you make it this far.  UK made just 2 of 16 from behind the arc and hit just 16 of 26 from the foul line.

Here is the PiRate preview for Saturday’s two regional final games.  We will preview Sunday’s games tomorrow.

East Regional

 

#1 Kentucky (29.22) vs. #2 West Virginia (29.08)

Look at those criteria scores.  14/100’s of a point converts to less than a one-point edge for the Wildcats.

Yes friends, this is going to be a great game between teams that should be playing each other every year. 

We see three keys to this game.  First, will West Virginia be able to get the ball inside against Kentucky’s inside defenders and force fouls from DeMarcus Cousins and Daniel Orton?  Second, will Kentucky’s perimeter shooters, John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, and even big man Patrick Patterson, be able to force WVU to play honest defense and lesson their ability to cheat inside?  Third, and maybe most importantly, will West Virginia’s forwards, Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Ebanks be able to match Cousins, Orton, and Patterson on the glass?

Kentucky had been hitting well from outside prior to the Cornell game.  They got the open shots and couldn’t sink them.  If they repeat that performance, Wall, Cousins, Patterson, and Bledsoe may be multi-millionaires before they take another shot in an official game.

West Virginia is used to winning games where they shoot around 40%.  Kentucky has done it too.  This game is going to come down to the inside muscle game.  The team with the most offensive put backs is going to win.  If Cousins stays out of foul trouble, he will see to it that the blue and white win that battle.

We expect WVU to slow down the pace and attack inside-out.  60 points could be enough to win it; we believe the Blue Mist will have one second-half spurt to sew this game up.

Prediction: Kentucky 62  West Virginia 55

 

 

West Regional

 

#2 Kansas State (31.21) vs. #5 Butler (19.35)

Kansas State just barely survived and advanced Thursday night, and they could be in line to bounce somewhat.  Butler is in the same situation; they had a draining game with Syracuse.  We look for this one to be sloppy and low-scoring with defense being at a premium.

It’s hard to pick against a team that last lost prior to Christmas and plays about as well as a team as the best Indiana teams under Bob Knight.

There are a couple of important keys in this game.  The only way Butler can win is to force more turnovers again like they did against Syracuse.  Kansas State will make their share of mistakes, but they make a lot of them in the commission of trying to run and get easy baskets.  We don’t think the Bulldogs will get to exploit this part of the game.

The other key is the Kansas State inside game.  KSU has too many horses inside for BU.  The Bulldogs will wear down inside against the Wildcats quartet of big men.  Jamar Samuels, Curtis Kelly, Dominique Sutton, and Luis Colon will combine for about 100 minutes of playing time in this game, and they will combine for 25 rebounds or more.  Butler just doesn’t have enough inside to match that.  Post man Matt Howard is foul prone, and he is likely to miss a good chunk of this game trying to prevent KSU’s big men from getting offensive rebounds and second chance points.

What’s tough here is that Kansas State’s top scorers are their two perimeter stars.  Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente usually combine for 35 points per game, and if they top 30 in this game, the Wildcats will be headed to the Final Four for the first time since Tex Winter and his triple post (since renamed triangle) offense knocked off defending national champion Texas Western and Wichita State to advance against undefeated UCLA in 1964.

Prediction: Kansas State 64  Butler 54

 

Check back with us Saturday afternoon for a preview of Sunday’s Elite 8 South and Midwest Regional Final games.

 

A PiRate Look At The 2009 NCAA Tournament: The Sweet 16

A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament

The Sweet 16

 March 26-27, 2009

 

As the Sweet 16 prepares to begin play tomorrow night, our PiRate Formula for picking teams that display the necessary statistics similar to the historical Final Four participants and National Champions are once again proving to be quite accurate.  We consider it the SABRmetrics of college basketball.

 

We originally told you about our list of the 12 Super Teams in this tournament.  We apologize for our not being able to count.  We only listed 11 teams.  Of those 11 teams, eight advanced to the Sweet 16.  One of the three teams, UCLA, lost to Villanova.  Villanova just barely missed out on qualifying for the Super Team list, and they basically got to host their first two games at the Spectrum.  Only Wake Forest and West Virginia’s losses can really be listed as misses.

 

On Sunday, our picks ran the table, going 8-0.  Combined with Saturday’s games, our second round success rate was 14-2.  For the tournament to date, we are now 38-10.

 

Without further adieu, here are the eight games for the third round.  The criteria scores and Strengths of Schedule have been updated to reflect the two games in the tournament.

 

(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)

[number in brackets is Strength of Schedule advantage]

 

East Region @ Boston

 

Pittsburgh (14) vs. Xavier (10) [Pitt 3]

Game Time: Thursday, 7:27 PM EDT

This is an interesting match if only because Xavier coach Sean Miller was once a starter on a great Pitt team. 

 

The way to beat Pitt is to force them to commit turnovers and play transition defense.  The Musketeers are more like Pitt than like the type of team needed to beat the Panthers.  Xavier cannot match up inside with the more muscular Pitt inside, and the Panthers will advance to the Elite 8.  Xavier’s only chance is to take 30 three-point shots and hit 40%.

 

Prediction: Pittsburgh 74 Xavier 64

 

Villanova (9) vs. Duke (14) [Duke 4]

Game Time: Thursday, approximately 9:42 PM EDT

Villanova missed out on being rated at 13 by just a hair.  This game is being touted as one in which the 3-seed Wildcats should be favored over the 2-seed Blue Devils. 

 

This game provides an excellent study in contrast.  VU has a great deal of talent inside with a surprising outside presence.  Duke has a great deal of talent on the perimeter with a surprising inside presence.

 

This should be a close game throughout the first half and a good deal of the second half.  Then, we believe the Duke defense will begin to force Villanova into mistakes and take advantage of those errors.  It should lead to a nice Blue Devil run in the last 10 minutes to move Coach K to the Elite 8.

 

Prediction: Duke 77 Villanova 70

 

South Region @ Memphis

 

Syracuse (4) vs. Oklahoma (9) [Syracuse 2]

Game Time: Friday, 7:27 PM EDT

This is the only Sweet 16 game in which neither team owns a double digit criteria score.  What it means to us is that the winner of this game will lose in the Elite 8 game Sunday.

 

This one should be a tight contest.  Syracuse’s zone defense should reduce the number of looks for Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin.  The Sooners have an ample trio of outside shooters, and they will have to step it up a notch to beat the Orangemen.  If Tony Crocker, Willie Warren, and Austin Johnson are hot, the Sooners will continue to play on Sunday.

 

Syracuse will have to pack in their zone to keep Griffin from killing them inside.  They will score points on offense, but they may give up points just even quicker if they cannot cover the perimeter when the ball is kicked out from the posts.

 

Prediction: Oklahoma 82 Syracuse 75

 

 

North Carolina (17) vs. Gonzaga (17) [N. Carolina 5]

Game Time: Friday, approximately 9:42 PM EDT

Gonzaga shares the second best PiRate criteria score with their opponent, but the Bulldogs compiled their stats against an inferior schedule.  Even though they played some big time teams, including Memphis and Connecticut, they played too many teams well beneath the average. 

 

North Carolina will not be able to just walk all over the Zags.  We expect GU to stay within striking distance for at least 30-32 minutes, and we wouldn’t be shocked if they led at any point of that time.

 

The Tar Heels will supposedly have Ty Lawson near 100% ready for this game.  Their bench is much more potent than Gonzaga’s, and we think they will eventually wear down the Bulldogs.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 85 Gonzaga 74

 

Midwest Region @ Indianapolis

 

Louisville (10) vs. Arizona (-2) [Louisville 2]

Game Time: Friday, 7:07 PM EDT

Arizona is the one team in the Sweet 16 that we feel doesn’t have the talent of the other 15 teams.  We didn’t think the Wildcats would make it this far, and we honestly felt that Penn State deserved to be here in their place.

 

The players heard for days that they didn’t deserve to be in the Dance, and that motivated them to play great ball last weekend.  We think this weekend will be different.

 

Louisville has not played like a number one seed of the entire tournament.  They got a virtual bye in the first round against Morehead State, and they could have easily lost to Siena in round two.  The Cardinals might stumble through for a third time and win only because their opponent is the weakest of the Sweet 16 teams.  It may be UL’s last win of the season if they don’t play more consistently.

 

Prediction: Louisville 69 Arizona 64

 

Kansas (10) vs. Michigan State (7) [Mich. St. 1]

Game Time: Approximately 9:22 PM EDT

This game should be a rugged, jaw-to-jaw contest of teams that like to bang it.  Both teams control the boards in their games, and it will be interesting to see if either can dominate the other.  We’ll call it a standoff in this stat.

 

Both teams’ weakness is their ability to take advantage of turnover margin.  If either team were playing somebody like Missouri this week, we would feel inclined to pick them to lose.  Since neither team will be able to force a bunch of mistakes and capitalize with a great fast break, we will call this a standoff as well.

 

We think the game will be decided by KU’s defense.  The Jayhawks will force MSU to shoot a lower percentage of shots and not receive their usual amount of offensive rebounds to hold the Spartans well below their points per game average.  We’re not sure MSU can do the same to the Jayhawks, so we’re picking the defending champions to return to the Elite 8.

 

Prediction: Kansas 72 Michigan State 67

 

West Region @ Glendale, AZ

 

Connecticut (14) vs. Purdue (6) [Even Strength]

Game Time: Thursday, 7:07 PM EDT

This looks like a potential mismatch, but some late developments may have the UConn players not ready mentally for this game.  A report by Yahoo Sports that the Huskies broke several NCAA rules when it recruited a former player may make it difficult for the players to properly prepare for this game.

 

Purdue doesn’t have the tools needed to beat Connecticut.  It takes a team with solid strength in the paint, and the Boilermakers don’t have the inside firepower.  Only a poorly played game by the top seed would make this one close.

 

We think the Huskies will start out a little bit off their game, but after a couple of TV timeouts, they should settle down and start playing well.  As long as Hasheem Thabeet stays out of foul trouble and plays about 25 minutes in this game, UConn should win by double digits.

 

Prediction: Connecticut 73 Purdue 60

 

Missouri (12) vs. Memphis (19) [Even Strength]

Game Time: Thursday, Approximately 9:22 PM EDT

This is the can’t miss game of the Sweet 16.  Both teams are strong in every aspect of the game.  Nary of foot of the court will be free parking for either team.  It will be a fast-paced game with the players on both teams trying to show up their opponents.

 

Yes, we picked Memphis to make it to the Championship Game and win it all, but we are not so sure they are the true favorite in this game.  Missouri won’t be intimidated, and if the Memphians come out flat like they did in the first round, Mizzou’s fast break game will quickly run out to a double-digit game.

 

All in all, we think Memphis will be pumped to play the Big 12 Tournament Champions.  This is a border war game, and neither team should be flat.  We’re going with Memphis only because we picked them to win the title.  In reality, we think this is a 50-50 contest.

 

Prediction: Memphis 77 Missouri 75

 

Come back Friday for a look at Saturday’s games and Saturday for a look at Sunday’s games.