PiRate College Football Computer Simulation: Quarterfinal Round–December 21, 2008

NCAA 2008 College Football Playoff Simulation

Quarterfinal Round

 

Welcome to season number two of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are seeded by BCS ranking.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2008 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC-Virginia Tech 9-4 seeded 12^th

Big East Champion-Cincinnati 11-2 seeded 11^th

Big Ten-Penn State 11-1 seeded 8^th

Big 12-Oklahoma 12-1 seeded 1^st

Pac-10-Southern Cal 11-1 seeded 5^th

SEC-Florida 12-1 seeded 2^nd

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC-Utah 12-0 seeded 6^th

WAC-Boise State 12-0 seeded 9^th

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Texas 11-1 seeded 3^rd

Alabama 12-1 seeded 4^th

Texas Tech 11-1 seeded 7^th

Ohio State 10-2 seeded 10^th

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5^th through 12^th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

 

The First Round games were simulated Saturday, December 13.  Here are the results of those games.

 

Insight Bowl: #5 Southern Cal 20 #12 Virginia Tech 6

 

Cotton Bowl: #6 Utah 23 #11 Cincinnati 20 2ot

 

Chick-Fil-a Bowl:  #10 Ohio State 45 #7 Texas Tech 31

 

Outback Bowl: #9 Boise State 34 #8 Penn State 23

 

 

Quarterfinal Round Matches

Simulated December 20

 

Fiesta Bowl

#1 Oklahoma 12-1 vs. #9 Boise State 13-0

 

Final Score: Oklahoma 48  Boise State 21

 

Chris Brown rushed for 130 yards and two touchdowns, and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford passed for four scores, as Oklahoma scored on touchdowns on their first three possessions to win rather easily.

 

The top-seeded Sooners now advance to the semifinal round where they will take on Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.

 

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
Oklahoma	21	10	10	7		48
Boise St.	0	7	0	14		21
		OKL	Stat	BSU
		26	FD	17
		37-177	Rush-Yds	32-74
		348	Pass Yds	213
		24-37-0	Passes	19-32-1
		2-40.5	Punt	6-39.3
		2-14	PR	1-5
		4-33	Pen	6-47
		0-0	Fum	0-0
		74	Play	64
		525	Tot Yds	287

 

 

 

Sugar Bowl

#2 Florida 12-1 vs. #10 Ohio State 11-2

 

Final Score: Florida 34  Ohio State 17

 

Tim Tebow may have lost out on a second consecutive Heisman Trophy award, but the junior Gator Quarterback showed the nation that he is still the most versatile quarterback in college football.  Tebow opened the game with a 72-yard scoring pass to Louis Murphy.  On the Gators’ next possession, Tebow completed six consecutive passes and then ran off left tackle for 22 yards and a touchdown.  He finished the game with 67 yard rushing and 312 total yards.

 

The number two seed Gators now advance to the Orange Bowl and will play Texas on New Year’s Day.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
Florida	14	10	3	7		34
Ohio State	0	3	14	0		17
		Fla	Stat	OSU
		23	FD	17
		50-286	Rush-Yds	25-90
		245	Pass Yds	219
		17-25-0	Passes	18-34-3
		4-42.8	Punt	7-39.6
		5-73	PR	3-16
		7-60	Pen	6-52
		0-0	Fum	1-1
		67	Play	59
		531	Tot Yds	309

 

 

Capital One Bowl

#3 Texas 11-1 vs. #6 Utah 13-0

 

Final Score: Texas 35  Utah 17

 

Colt McCoy completed his first 14 passes and joines two other Longhorns with more than 50 yards rushing, as Texas crushed Utah and advanced to the Orange Bowl against Florida.

 

McCoy rushed for 51 yards on 12 carries; Vondrell McGee picked up 57 yards on 17 carries, and Cody Johnson rushed for 71 yards on just 11 carries and scored two touchdowns.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
Texas	14	7	14	0		35
Utah	0	0	3	14		17
		Tex	Stat	Utah
		26	FD	15
		40-179	Rush-Yds	27-58
		301	Pass Yds	241
		25-32-0	Passes	20-37-1
		3-41.0	Punt	6-40.7
		1-8	PR	0-0
		6-50	Pen	8-67
		1-0	Fum	2-1
		72	Play	64
		480	Tot Yds	299

 

 

Gator Bowl

#4 Alabama 12-1 vs. #5 Southern Cal 12-1

 

Final Score: Southern Cal 17  Alabama 10

 

Southern Cal took advantage of three Alabama turnovers inside Crimson Tide territory, and the stellar Trojan defense kept Alabama out of the end zone.  Alabama’s lone touchdown came on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone.

 

USC now advances to the Rose Bowl, where the Trojans will take on Oklahoma in a battle of the best offense versus the best defense.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
Alabama	0	3	0	7		10
USC	0	7	10	0		17
		Ala	Stat	USC
		8	FD	16
		32-51	Rush-Yds	35-119
		144	Pass Yds	207
		15-27-1	Passes	19-31-1
		8-41.6	Punt	6-33.3
		3-22	PR	5-69
		4-30	Pen	5-40
		3-2	Fum	0-0
		59	Play	66
		195	Tot Yds	326

 

PiRate BCS National Championship Game Preview and Viewer’s Guide

The NCAA Football Bowl Division BCS Championship Game

Monday, January 7, 2008

8:30 PM EST

Fox Network

New Orleans Superdome

Ohio State 11-1 vs. LSU 11-2

How They Got To New Orleans
Ohio State Buckeyes
Location	Columbus, Ohio
Colors	Scarlet and Gray
League	Big 10 Conference
National Titles (*)	2002, 1968, 1957, 1954, 1942
* Awarded by AP, UPI, BCS, and other official polls
Unofficial Nat’l Titles (%)	1998, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1970,
	1969, 1961, 1944, 1933
% Awarded by various unofficial polls and computers
Head Coach	Jim Tressel
Record at Ohio State	73-15 in 7th season
Bowl Record at OSU	4-2
Overall Record	146-58-2
Offensive Coordinator	Jim Bollman
Defensive Coordinator	Jim Heacock/Luke Fickell
Opponents	OSU	Opp
Youngstown State	38	6
Akron	20	2
at Washington	33	14
Northwestern	58	7
at Minnesota	30	7
at Purdue	23	7
Kent State	48	3
Michigan State	24	17
at Penn State	37	17
Wisconsin	38	17
Illinois	21	28
at Michigan	14	3
Per Game Stats	OSU	Opp
Points	32.0	10.7
First Downs	20.9	12.9
Rushing Attempts	43.6	31.4
Rushing Yards	200.7	77.1
Avg per Rush	4.6	2.5
Rush Yds NFL method *	209.0	99.6
Passing Yards	196.4	148.2
Pass Yds NFL method *	188.1	125.7
Pass Completions	16.3	16.4
Pass Attempts	25.3	31.6
Interceptions	1.0	0.8
Sacks	3.5	1.2
Sack Yards	22.5	8.3
Punting Avg.	40.4	39.2
Punt Returns	38.6	6.8
Net Punting	36.5	33.9
Fumbles-LST	1.4-0.6	1.3-0.7
Penalties-Yds	5.4-40.9	4.1-37.2
Yds per Interception Ret.	17.8	7.4
Avg. Kick Return	17.6	21.4
Time of Possession	32:11	27:49
3rd down conversion %	47.6	30.7
PAT %	97.8	100.0
FG %	81.0	70.0
* The NFL figures QB sacks as lost passing yards and not rushing yards
This is a better barometer of both the rushing and passing games Louisiana State Tigers Location Baton Rouge, LA Colors Purple and Gold League Southeastern Conference National Titles (*) 2003, 1958 * Awarded by AP, UPI, BCS, and other official polls Unofficial Nat’l Titles (%) 1936, 1935, 1908 % Awarded by various unofficial polls and computers Head Coach Les Miles Record at LSU 33-6 in 3rd year Bowl Record at LSU 2-0 Overall Record 61-27 Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton Defensive Coordinator Bo Pelini Opponents LSU Opp at Mississippi St. 45 0 Virginia Tech 48 7 Middle Tennessee 44 0 South Carolina 28 16 at Tulane 34 9 Florida 28 24 at Kentucky 37 43 3 OT Auburn 30 24 at Alabama 41 34 Louisiana Tech 58 10 at Ole Miss 41 24 Arkansas 48 50 3 OT Tennessee 21 14 Per Game Stats LSU Opp Points 38.7 19.6 First Downs 22.4 16.5 Rushing Attempts 43.3 33.4 Rushing Yards 218.9 103.1 Avg per Rush 5.1 3.1 Rush Yds NFL method * 233.8 122.0 Passing Yards 229.2 180.8 Pass Yds NFL method * 214.3 161.9 Pass Completions 18.2 15.2 Pass Attempts 31.9 32.7 Interceptions 0.9 1.6 Sacks 2.5 2.2 Sack Yards 18.9 14.9 Punting Avg. 43.4 39.2 Punt Return Avg. 5.8 9.5 Net Punting 35.5 36.5 Fumbles-LST 1.2-0.2 1.8-0.9 Penalties-Yds 8.7-64.9 4.6-37.2 Yds per Interception Ret. 11.6 9.5 Avg. Kick Return 20.1 20.5 Time of Possession 32:07 27:53 3rd down conversion % 45.4 36.0 PAT % 100.0 96.7 FG % 78.1 83.3

L S U Offense							Ohio State Defense
Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr	||	Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr
SE	1	Brandon LaFell	6-3	205	So	||	DE	97	Cameron Heyward	6-6	282	Fr
	2	Demetrius Byrd	6-2	195	Jr	||		9	Rob Rose	6-5	294	S0
	28	R.J. Jackson	6-0	205	So	||	DT	84	Doug Worthington	6-7	271	So
LT	70	Ciron Black	6-5	320	So	||		93	Nader Abdallah	6-5	297	Jr
	76	Jarvis Jones	6-7	294	Fr	||	DT	92	Todd Denlinger	6-3	286	So
LG	79	Herman Johnson	6-7	356	Jr	||		72	Dexter Larimore	6-3	304	Fr
	63	Ryan Miller	6-6	302	Jr	||	DE	50	Vernon Gholston	6-4	264	Jr
	62	Robert Smith	6-2	273	Sr	||		78	Alex Barrow	6-5	275	Jr
C	74	Brett Helms	6-2	270	Jr	||	WLB	1	Marcus Freeman	6-2	236	Jr
	63	Ryan Miller	6-6	302	Jr	||		36	Brian Rolle	5-11	212	Fr
RG	65	Lyle Hitt	6-2	299	So	||	MLB	33	James Laurinaitis	6-3	240	Jr
	76	Jarvis Jones	6-7	294	Fr	||		38	Austin Spitler	6-3	234	So
	63	Ryan Miller	6-6	302	Jr	||	SLB	6	Larry Grant	6-3	226	Sr
RT	71	Carnell Stewart	6-5	320	Sr	||		26	Tyler Moeller	6-1	203	Fr
	78	Joseph Barksdale	6-4	310	Fr	||	CB	2	Malcolm Jenkins	6-1	208	Jr
TE	82	Richard Dickson	6-2	235	So	||		32	Eugene Clifford	6-2	191	Fr
	89	Keith Zinger	6-4	250	Sr	||		13	Andre Amos	6-1	179	So
	81	Mit Cole	6-4	260	Sr	||	SS	4	Kurt Coleman	5-11	187	So
FL	9	Early Doucet	6-0	207	Sr	||		3	Jamario O’Neal	6-1	199	Jr
	80	Terrence Toliver	6-5	190	Fr	||	FS	21	Anderson Russell	6-0	205	So
	87	Jared Mitchell	5-11	198	So	||		8	Aaron Gant	6-0	201	So
QB	15	Matt Flynn	6-3	227	Sr	||	CB	20	Donald Washington	6-1	188	So
	11	Ryan Perrilloux	6-3	227	So	||		5	Chimdi Chekwa	6-1	185	Fr
	14	Andrew Hatch	6-3	214	So	||
TB	18	Jacob Hester	6-0	228	Sr	||
	5	Keiland Williams	6-0	226	So	||
	32	Charles Scott	5-11	226	So	||
	8	Trindon Holliday	5-5	160	So	||
	26	Richard Murphy	6-1	197	Fr	||
FB	45	Quinn Jackson	6-2	238	Jr	||
	40	Shawn Jordan	5-11	254	Sr	||
Ohio State Offense							L S U Defense
Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr	||	Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr
WR	80	Brian Robiskie	6-3	196	Jr	||	LE	93	Tyson Jackson	6-5	291	Jr
	12	Dane Sanzenbacher	5-11	178	Fr	||		47	Tremaine Johnson	6-2	282	Jr
LT	75	Alex Boone	6-8	313	Jr	||	LT	72	Glenn Dorsey	6-2	303	Sr
	73	Josh Kerr	6-5	276	Fr	||		97	Al Woods	6-4	315	So
LG	71	Steve Rehring	6-8	345	Jr	||		90	Ricky Jean-Francois	6-3	285	So
	78	Dan Dye	6-3	277	Sr	||	RT	99	Marlon Favorite	6-1	302	Jr
C	64	Jim Cordle	6-4	302	So	||		92	Drake Nevis	6-1	288	Fr
	66	Andrew Moses	6-3	272	So	||		90	Ricky Jean-Francois	6-3	285	So
RG	63	Ben Person	6-4	321	Jr	||	RE	49	Kirston Pittman	6-4	252	Sr
	77	Connor Smith	6-5	317	Fr	||		84	Rahim Allen	6-3	254	So
RT	74	Kirk Barton	6-6	300	Sr	||		90	Ricky Jean-Francois	6-3	285	So
	70	Byrant Browning	6-4	311	Fr	||	SLB	35	Luke Sanders	6-5	242	Sr
TE	88	Rory Nicol	6-5	250	Jr	||		56	Perry Riley	6-1	232	So
	86	Jake Ballard	6-7	255	So	||	MLB	48	Darry Beckwith	6-1	230	Jr
	87	Brandon Smith	6-3	240	Jr	||		54	Jacob Cuttera	6-4	235	So
WR	9	Brian Hartline	6-3	180	So	||	WLB	7	Ali Highsmith	6-1	223	Sr
	4	Ray Small	6-0	182	So	||		11	Kelvin Sheppard	6-3	223	Fr
QB	17	Todd Boeckman	6-5	243	Jr	||	CB	19	Jonathan Zenon	6-0	180	Sr
	11	Robby Schoenhoft	6-6	244	So	||		29	Chris Hawkins	6-1	175	So
TB	28	Chris Wells	6-1	235	So	||	SS	16	Craig Steltz	6-2	209	Sr
	34	Maurice Wells	5-10	195	Jr	||		24	Harry Coleman	6-2	205	So
	3	Brandon Saine	6-1	220	Fr	||	FS	27	Curtis Taylor	6-3	204	Jr
FB	49	Dionte Johnson	6-0	242	Sr	||		44	Danny McCray	6-1	206	So
	16	Trever Robinson	6-0	225	Sr	||	CB	21	Chevis Jackson	6-0	184	Sr
	42	Tyler Whaley	6-1	265	Sr	||		4	Jai Eugene	5-11	184	Fr
L S U Special Teams							Ohio State Special Teams
Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr	||	Pos	No.	Name	Ht	Wt	Yr
K	6	Colt David	5-9	173	Jr	||	K	85	Ryan Pretorius	5-9	175	Jr
P	36	Patrick Fisher	6-5	253	Sr	||	KO	20	Aaron Pettrey	6-1	193	So
KR	8	Trindon Holliday	5-5	160	So	||	P	15	A. J. Trapasso	6-1	224	Jr
	5	Keiland Williams	6-0	226	So	||	KR	4	Ray Small	6-0	182	So
	9	Early Doucet	6-0	207	Sr	||		34	Maurice Wells	5-10	195	Jr
PR	3	Chad Jones	6-3	218	Fr	||	PR	9	Brian Hartline	6-3	180	So
	9	Early Doucet	6-0	207	Sr	||		4	Ray Small	6-0	182	So
LS	51	Jacob O’Hair	6-2	237	Sr	||	LS	56	Dimitrios Makridis	6-1	208	Sr
Hld	15	Matt Flynn	6-3	227	Sr	||		61	Jackson Haas	6-3	228	Sr
	11	Ryan Perrilloux	6-3	227	So	||	Hld	48	Jon Thoma	6-1	199	So

Game Preview

In January of 1973, Ohio State played Southern California in the Rose Bowl and USC blew them off the Pasadena turf much like they did with Illinois this past Monday.  A year later, Ohio State returned to the Rose Bowl for a rematch with USC.  Many pundits expected another Trojan slaughter, but The Buckeyes redeemed themselves with a slaughter of their own by a score of 42-21.

Does history repeat itself?  Ohio State was blown out last year by Florida in the National Championship Game, and now they must take on another SEC team in their home state.  Ohio State has much better odds this time around, as LSU is more of a power team than a speed and finesse team.  Ohio State can hold its own against power teams.

What does play in LSU’s favor is that this is almost a home game for them.  The Tigers receive three points home field advantage, and they already own a win on this field this season.

I expect this to be a game that is slightly biased in favor of defense in the bend but don’t break mode.  I expect both teams to lose good chances to score in this game.

When it comes down to it, LSU coach Les Miles will gamble, while Ohio State coach Jim Tressel will play it close to the vest.  Will LSU’s gambles pay off or be costly?  Will Ohio State be too conservative?  This is where the game will be decided.  I’d say it’s pretty much 50-50, so you should be rewarded with a game rivaling the excitement of last week’s New England Patriots-New York Giants game.

Las Vegas Line:          LSU by 4

Totals Line:                 48½

Money Line:                LSU -165  Ohio State +150

PiRate Computer:     Tossup with predicted score of 24-24 going to overtime

Mean Rating:             LSU 26  Ohio State 25

75 other computers:    48 pick LSU and 27 pick Ohio State

75 computers avg.       LSU by 2.08 points