The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 21, 2008

PiRate College Football Computer Simulation: Quarterfinal Round–December 21, 2008

NCAA 2008 College Football Playoff Simulation

Quarterfinal Round

 

Welcome to season number two of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are seeded by BCS ranking.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2008 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC-Virginia Tech 9-4 seeded 12th

Big East Champion-Cincinnati 11-2 seeded 11th

Big Ten-Penn State 11-1 seeded 8th

Big 12-Oklahoma 12-1 seeded 1st

Pac-10-Southern Cal 11-1 seeded 5th

SEC-Florida 12-1 seeded 2nd

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC-Utah 12-0 seeded 6th

WAC-Boise State 12-0 seeded 9th

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Texas 11-1 seeded 3rd

Alabama 12-1 seeded 4th

Texas Tech 11-1 seeded 7th

Ohio State 10-2 seeded 10th

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

 

The First Round games were simulated Saturday, December 13.  Here are the results of those games.

 

Insight Bowl: #5 Southern Cal 20 #12 Virginia Tech 6

 

Cotton Bowl: #6 Utah 23 #11 Cincinnati 20 2ot

 

Chick-Fil-a Bowl:  #10 Ohio State 45 #7 Texas Tech 31

 

Outback Bowl: #9 Boise State 34 #8 Penn State 23

 

 

Quarterfinal Round Matches

Simulated December 20

 

Fiesta Bowl

#1 Oklahoma 12-1 vs. #9 Boise State 13-0

 

Final Score: Oklahoma 48  Boise State 21

 

Chris Brown rushed for 130 yards and two touchdowns, and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford passed for four scores, as Oklahoma scored on touchdowns on their first three possessions to win rather easily.

 

The top-seeded Sooners now advance to the semifinal round where they will take on Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Oklahoma

21

10

10

7

 

48

Boise St.

0

7

0

14

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OKL

Stat

BSU

 

 

 

 

26

FD

17

 

 

 

 

37-177

Rush-Yds

32-74

 

 

 

 

348

Pass Yds

213

 

 

 

 

24-37-0

Passes

19-32-1

 

 

 

 

2-40.5

Punt

6-39.3

 

 

 

 

2-14

PR

1-5

 

 

 

 

4-33

Pen

6-47

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

74

Play

64

 

 

 

 

525

Tot Yds

287

 

 

 

 

 

Sugar Bowl

#2 Florida 12-1 vs. #10 Ohio State 11-2

 

Final Score: Florida 34  Ohio State 17

 

Tim Tebow may have lost out on a second consecutive Heisman Trophy award, but the junior Gator Quarterback showed the nation that he is still the most versatile quarterback in college football.  Tebow opened the game with a 72-yard scoring pass to Louis Murphy.  On the Gators’ next possession, Tebow completed six consecutive passes and then ran off left tackle for 22 yards and a touchdown.  He finished the game with 67 yard rushing and 312 total yards.

 

The number two seed Gators now advance to the Orange Bowl and will play Texas on New Year’s Day.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Florida

14

10

3

7

 

34

Ohio State

0

3

14

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fla

Stat

OSU

 

 

 

 

23

FD

17

 

 

 

 

50-286

Rush-Yds

25-90

 

 

 

 

245

Pass Yds

219

 

 

 

 

17-25-0

Passes

18-34-3

 

 

 

 

4-42.8

Punt

7-39.6

 

 

 

 

5-73

PR

3-16

 

 

 

 

7-60

Pen

6-52

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

67

Play

59

 

 

 

 

531

Tot Yds

309

 

 

 

 

Capital One Bowl

#3 Texas 11-1 vs. #6 Utah 13-0

 

Final Score: Texas 35  Utah 17

 

Colt McCoy completed his first 14 passes and joines two other Longhorns with more than 50 yards rushing, as Texas crushed Utah and advanced to the Orange Bowl against Florida.

 

McCoy rushed for 51 yards on 12 carries; Vondrell McGee picked up 57 yards on 17 carries, and Cody Johnson rushed for 71 yards on just 11 carries and scored two touchdowns.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Texas

14

7

14

0

 

35

Utah

0

0

3

14

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tex

Stat

Utah

 

 

 

 

26

FD

15

 

 

 

 

40-179

Rush-Yds

27-58

 

 

 

 

301

Pass Yds

241

 

 

 

 

25-32-0

Passes

20-37-1

 

 

 

 

3-41.0

Punt

6-40.7

 

 

 

 

1-8

PR

0-0

 

 

 

 

6-50

Pen

8-67

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

72

Play

64

 

 

 

 

480

Tot Yds

299

 

 

 

 

Gator Bowl

#4 Alabama 12-1 vs. #5 Southern Cal 12-1

 

Final Score: Southern Cal 17  Alabama 10

 

Southern Cal took advantage of three Alabama turnovers inside Crimson Tide territory, and the stellar Trojan defense kept Alabama out of the end zone.  Alabama’s lone touchdown came on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone.

 

USC now advances to the Rose Bowl, where the Trojans will take on Oklahoma in a battle of the best offense versus the best defense.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Alabama

0

3

0

7

 

10

USC

0

7

10

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ala

Stat

USC

 

 

 

 

8

FD

16

 

 

 

 

32-51

Rush-Yds

35-119

 

 

 

 

144

Pass Yds

207

 

 

 

 

15-27-1

Passes

19-31-1

 

 

 

 

8-41.6

Punt

6-33.3

 

 

 

 

3-22

PR

5-69

 

 

 

 

4-30

Pen

5-40

 

 

 

 

3-2

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

59

Play

66

 

 

 

 

195

Tot Yds

326

 

 

 

January 4, 2008

PiRate BCS National Championship Game Preview and Viewer’s Guide

The NCAA Football Bowl Division BCS Championship Game

Monday, January 7, 2008

8:30 PM EST

Fox Network

New Orleans Superdome

Ohio State 11-1 vs. LSU 11-2

How They Got To New Orleans

Ohio State Buckeyes

Location

Columbus, Ohio

Colors

Scarlet and Gray

League

Big 10 Conference

National Titles (*)

2002, 1968, 1957, 1954, 1942

* Awarded by AP, UPI, BCS, and other official polls
Unofficial Nat’l Titles (%)

1998, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1970,

1969, 1961, 1944, 1933

% Awarded by various unofficial polls and computers

Head Coach

Jim Tressel

Record at Ohio State

73-15 in 7th season

Bowl Record at OSU

4-2

Overall Record

146-58-2

Offensive Coordinator

Jim Bollman

Defensive Coordinator

Jim Heacock/Luke Fickell

Opponents

OSU

Opp

Youngstown State

38

6

Akron

20

2

at Washington

33

14

Northwestern

58

7

at Minnesota

30

7

at Purdue

23

7

Kent State

48

3

Michigan State

24

17

at Penn State

37

17

Wisconsin

38

17

Illinois

21

28

at Michigan

14

3

Per Game Stats

OSU

Opp

Points

32.0

10.7

First Downs

20.9

12.9

Rushing Attempts

43.6

31.4

Rushing Yards

200.7

77.1

Avg per Rush

4.6

2.5

Rush Yds NFL method *

209.0

99.6

Passing Yards

196.4

148.2

Pass Yds NFL method *

188.1

125.7

Pass Completions

16.3

16.4

Pass Attempts

25.3

31.6

Interceptions

1.0

0.8

Sacks

3.5

1.2

Sack Yards

22.5

8.3

Punting Avg.

40.4

39.2

Punt Returns

38.6

6.8

Net Punting

36.5

33.9

Fumbles-LST

1.4-0.6

1.3-0.7

Penalties-Yds

5.4-40.9

4.1-37.2

Yds per Interception Ret.

17.8

7.4

Avg. Kick Return

17.6

21.4

Time of Possession

32:11

27:49

3rd down conversion %

47.6

30.7

PAT %

97.8

100.0

FG %

81.0

70.0

* The NFL figures QB sacks as lost passing yards and not rushing yards
This is a better barometer of both the rushing and passing games

Louisiana State Tigers

Location

Baton Rouge, LA

Colors

Purple and Gold

League

Southeastern Conference

National Titles (*)

2003, 1958

* Awarded by AP, UPI, BCS, and other official polls
Unofficial Nat’l Titles (%)

1936, 1935, 1908

% Awarded by various unofficial polls and computers

Head Coach

Les Miles

Record at LSU

33-6 in 3rd year

Bowl Record at LSU

2-0

Overall Record

61-27

Offensive Coordinator

Gary Crowton

Defensive Coordinator

Bo Pelini

Opponents

LSU

Opp

at Mississippi St.

45

0

Virginia Tech

48

7

Middle Tennessee

44

0

South Carolina

28

16

at Tulane

34

9

Florida

28

24

at Kentucky

37

43

3 OT
Auburn

30

24

at Alabama

41

34

Louisiana Tech

58

10

at Ole Miss

41

24

Arkansas

48

50

3 OT
Tennessee

21

14

Per Game Stats

LSU

Opp

Points

38.7

19.6

First Downs

22.4

16.5

Rushing Attempts

43.3

33.4

Rushing Yards

218.9

103.1

Avg per Rush

5.1

3.1

Rush Yds NFL method *

233.8

122.0

Passing Yards

229.2

180.8

Pass Yds NFL method *

214.3

161.9

Pass Completions

18.2

15.2

Pass Attempts

31.9

32.7

Interceptions

0.9

1.6

Sacks

2.5

2.2

Sack Yards

18.9

14.9

Punting Avg.

43.4

39.2

Punt Return Avg.

5.8

9.5

Net Punting

35.5

36.5

Fumbles-LST

1.2-0.2

1.8-0.9

Penalties-Yds

8.7-64.9

4.6-37.2

Yds per Interception Ret.

11.6

9.5

Avg. Kick Return

20.1

20.5

Time of Possession

32:07

27:53

3rd down conversion %

45.4

36.0

PAT %

100.0

96.7

FG %

78.1

83.3

L S U Offense

Ohio State Defense

Pos

No.

Name

Ht 

Wt

Yr

||

Pos

No.

Name

Ht

Wt

Yr

SE

1

Brandon LaFell

6-3  

205

So

||

DE

97

Cameron Heyward

6-6   

282

Fr

2

Demetrius Byrd

6-2  

195

Jr

||

9

Rob Rose

6-5   

294

S0

28

R.J. Jackson

6-0  

205

So

||

DT

84

Doug Worthington

6-7   

271

So

LT

70

Ciron Black

6-5  

320

So

||

93

Nader Abdallah

6-5   

297

Jr

76

Jarvis Jones

6-7  

294

Fr

||

DT

92

Todd Denlinger

6-3   

286

So

LG

79

Herman Johnson

6-7  

356

Jr

||

72

Dexter Larimore

6-3   

304

Fr

63

Ryan Miller

6-6  

302

Jr

||

DE

50

Vernon Gholston

6-4   

264

Jr

62

Robert Smith

6-2  

273

Sr

||

78

Alex Barrow

6-5   

275

Jr

C

74

Brett Helms

6-2  

270

Jr

||

WLB

1

Marcus Freeman

6-2   

236

Jr

63

Ryan Miller

6-6  

302

Jr

||

36

Brian Rolle

5-11   

212

Fr

RG

65

Lyle Hitt

6-2  

299

So

||

MLB

33

James Laurinaitis

6-3   

240

Jr

76

Jarvis Jones

6-7  

294

Fr

||

38

Austin Spitler

6-3   

234

So

63

Ryan Miller

6-6  

302

Jr

||

SLB

6

Larry Grant

6-3   

226

Sr

RT

71

Carnell Stewart

6-5  

320

Sr

||

26

Tyler Moeller

6-1   

203

Fr

78

Joseph Barksdale

6-4  

310

Fr

||

CB

2

Malcolm Jenkins

6-1   

208

Jr

TE

82

Richard Dickson

6-2  

235

So

||

32

Eugene Clifford

6-2   

191

Fr

89

Keith Zinger

6-4  

250

Sr

||

13

Andre Amos

6-1   

179

So

81

Mit Cole

6-4  

260

Sr

||

SS

4

Kurt Coleman

5-11  

187

So

FL

9

Early Doucet

6-0  

207

Sr

||

3

Jamario O’Neal

6-1    

199

Jr

80

Terrence Toliver

6-5  

190

Fr

||

FS

21

Anderson Russell

6-0   

205

So

87

Jared Mitchell

5-11  

198

So

||

8

Aaron Gant

6-0   

201

So

QB

15

Matt Flynn

6-3  

227

Sr

||

CB

20

Donald Washington

6-1   

188

So

11

Ryan Perrilloux

6-3  

227

So

||

5

Chimdi Chekwa

6-1   

185

Fr

14

Andrew Hatch

6-3  

214

So

||

 

 

 

 

 

 

TB

18

Jacob Hester

6-0  

228

Sr

||

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

Keiland Williams

6-0  

226

So

||

 

 

 

 

 

 

32

Charles Scott

5-11  

226

So

||

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

Trindon Holliday

5-5  

160

So

||

 

 

 

 

 

 

26

Richard Murphy

6-1  

197

Fr

||

 

 

 

 

 

 

FB

45

Quinn Jackson

6-2  

238

Jr

||

 

 

 

 

 

 

40

Shawn Jordan

5-11  

254

Sr

||

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ohio State Offense

L S U Defense

Pos

No.

Name

Ht

Wt

Yr

||

Pos

No.

Name

Ht 

Wt

Yr

WR

80

Brian Robiskie

6-3  

196

Jr

||

LE

93

Tyson Jackson

6-5    

291

Jr

12

Dane Sanzenbacher

5-11  

178

Fr

||

47

Tremaine Johnson

6-2    

282

Jr

LT

75

Alex Boone

6-8  

313

Jr

||

LT

72

Glenn Dorsey

6-2    

303

Sr

73

Josh Kerr

6-5  

276

Fr

||

97

Al Woods

6-4    

315

So

LG

71

Steve Rehring

6-8  

345

Jr

||

90

Ricky Jean-Francois

6-3   

285

So

78

Dan Dye

6-3  

277

Sr

||

RT

99

Marlon Favorite

6-1   

302

Jr

C

64

Jim Cordle

6-4  

302

So

||

92

Drake Nevis

6-1   

288

Fr

66

Andrew Moses

6-3  

272

So

||

90

Ricky Jean-Francois

6-3   

285

So

RG

63

Ben Person

6-4  

321

Jr

||

RE

49

Kirston Pittman

6-4   

252

Sr

77

Connor Smith

6-5  

317

Fr

||

84

Rahim Allen

6-3   

254

So

RT

74

Kirk Barton

6-6  

300

Sr

||

90

Ricky Jean-Francois

6-3   

285

So

70

Byrant Browning

6-4  

311

Fr

||

SLB

35

Luke Sanders

6-5   

242

Sr

TE

88

Rory Nicol

6-5  

250

Jr

||

56

Perry Riley

6-1   

232

So

86

Jake Ballard

6-7  

255

So

||

MLB

48

Darry Beckwith

6-1   

230

Jr

87

Brandon Smith

6-3  

240

Jr

||

54

Jacob Cuttera

6-4   

235

So

WR

9

Brian Hartline

6-3  

180

So

||

WLB

7

Ali Highsmith

6-1   

223

Sr

4

Ray Small

6-0  

182

So

||

11

Kelvin Sheppard

6-3   

223

Fr

QB

17

Todd Boeckman

6-5  

243

Jr

||

CB

19

Jonathan Zenon

6-0   

180

Sr

11

Robby Schoenhoft

6-6  

244

So

||

29

Chris Hawkins

6-1   

175

So

TB

28

Chris Wells

6-1  

235

So

||

SS

16

Craig Steltz

6-2   

209

Sr

34

Maurice Wells

5-10  

195

Jr

||

24

Harry Coleman

6-2   

205

So

3

Brandon Saine

6-1  

220

Fr

||

FS

27

Curtis Taylor

6-3   

204

Jr

FB

49

Dionte Johnson

6-0  

242

Sr

||

44

Danny McCray

6-1   

206

So

16

Trever Robinson

6-0  

225

Sr

||

CB

21

Chevis Jackson

6-0   

184

Sr

42

Tyler Whaley

6-1  

265

Sr

||

4

Jai Eugene

5-11   

184

Fr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

L S U Special Teams

Ohio State Special Teams

Pos

No.

Name

Ht

Wt

Yr

||

Pos

No.

Name

Ht

Wt

Yr

K

6

Colt David

5-9  

173

Jr

||

K

85

Ryan Pretorius

5-9  

175

Jr

P

36

Patrick Fisher

6-5  

253

Sr

||

KO

20

Aaron Pettrey

6-1  

193

So

KR

8

Trindon Holliday

5-5  

160

So

||

P

15

A. J. Trapasso

6-1  

224

Jr

5

Keiland Williams

6-0  

226

So

||

KR

4

Ray Small

6-0  

182

So

9

Early Doucet

6-0  

207

Sr

||

34

Maurice Wells

5-10  

195

Jr

PR

3

Chad Jones

6-3  

218

Fr

||

PR

9

Brian Hartline

6-3  

180

So

9

Early Doucet

6-0  

207

Sr

||

4

Ray Small

6-0  

182

So

LS

51

Jacob O’Hair

6-2  

237

Sr

||

LS

56

Dimitrios Makridis

6-1  

208

Sr

Hld

15

Matt Flynn

6-3  

227

Sr

||

61

Jackson Haas

6-3  

228

Sr

11

Ryan Perrilloux

6-3  

227

So

||

Hld

48

Jon Thoma

6-1  

199

So

Game Preview

In January of 1973, Ohio State played Southern California in the Rose Bowl and USC blew them off the Pasadena turf much like they did with Illinois this past Monday.  A year later, Ohio State returned to the Rose Bowl for a rematch with USC.  Many pundits expected another Trojan slaughter, but The Buckeyes redeemed themselves with a slaughter of their own by a score of 42-21.

Does history repeat itself?  Ohio State was blown out last year by Florida in the National Championship Game, and now they must take on another SEC team in their home state.  Ohio State has much better odds this time around, as LSU is more of a power team than a speed and finesse team.  Ohio State can hold its own against power teams.

What does play in LSU’s favor is that this is almost a home game for them.  The Tigers receive three points home field advantage, and they already own a win on this field this season.

I expect this to be a game that is slightly biased in favor of defense in the bend but don’t break mode.  I expect both teams to lose good chances to score in this game.

When it comes down to it, LSU coach Les Miles will gamble, while Ohio State coach Jim Tressel will play it close to the vest.  Will LSU’s gambles pay off or be costly?  Will Ohio State be too conservative?  This is where the game will be decided.  I’d say it’s pretty much 50-50, so you should be rewarded with a game rivaling the excitement of last week’s New England Patriots-New York Giants game.

Las Vegas Line:          LSU by 4

Totals Line:                 48½

Money Line:                LSU -165  Ohio State +150

PiRate Computer:     Tossup with predicted score of 24-24 going to overtime

Mean Rating:             LSU 26  Ohio State 25

75 other computers:    48 pick LSU and 27 pick Ohio State

75 computers avg.       LSU by 2.08 points

             

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